textproduct: Las Vegas

KEY MESSAGES

* Near-normal temperatures and elevated fire danger expected across the region today before winds subside and temperatures rise through the work week.

* Slight chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms mid-to-late week as monsoonal moisture surges northward.

DISCUSSION

Today through Friday.

A weak trough that brought windy conditions to the region on Friday will continue to meander inland today, returning south-southwesterly wind gusts to the region. Wind gusts will generally range between 20 and 30 mph, which drops below Red Flag Warning criteria. However, due to ongoing dry conditions, dry fuels, and breezy winds, fire danger will be elevated this afternoon, so recreation involving sparks or flames is discouraged. Otherwise, this afternoon will be the coolest of the forecast period, with highs near-normal. An area of high pressure over northern Mexico / the Four Corners will continue to build through the work week, allowing temperatures to gradually climb to near-10 degrees above-normal by midweek along with widespread Moderate Heat Risk (Level 2 of 4).

Ensemble means continue to show the high pressure system over northern Mexico gradually building northward. Mid-to-late week, the center of the high will shift slightly eastward, allowing monsoonal moisture to surge northward up the Colorado River Valley into the Mojave Desert. ECMWF ensemble PWATs show between 0.75 and 1.00 inches surging into northwestern Arizona, southeastern California, and southern Nevada Wednesday and Thursday. There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of the center of the aforementioned high pressure system midweek. Minor shifts could result in increased or decreased chances of precipitation across the forecast area. At present, portions of the Mojave Desert have slight (10 to 20 percent) chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. If you have outdoor or travel plans this week, be sure to stay tuned to the forecast.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid

For the 18Z Forecast Package...South winds are expected through the afternoon, gusting 15- 20KT. Gusts over 20KT are possible (50% chance) between 22Z to 01Z as winds shift to around 220 degrees (true). Gusts will end around sunset. Elevated south winds at 8-10KT are expected through much of the night before becoming light early Sunday morning. Winds on Sunday will be lighter than they have been the past few days with no gusts expected. East to southeast winds around 8KT are expected on Sunday. VFR skies. Smoke from nearby wildfires should not reduce visibility or CIGs directly at the terminals through the period, though wildfire smoke may impact slantwise visibility at times. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 21Z-01Z today, then again after 21Z on Sunday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...West winds at 10-15KT are expected at KDAG with gusts over 25KT late this afternoon through the evening. Elsewhere, breezy south to southwest winds are expected with widespread 15-25KT gusts expected. Winds will diminish after sunset with gusts ending for most locations by 03Z. Typical light wind patterns overnight and Sunday morning. VFR conditions persist through the period. Smoke from wildfires will advect northeast this afternoon in eastern Nevada into Utah, then dissipate as winds diminish tonight.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.