textproduct: Las Vegas

SYNOPSIS

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through Thursday as an upper level system shifts through the region. Impacts will be limited with small hail and sudden gusty winds possible, as well as light to briefly moderate snow above 5000ft. Temperatures will begin to recover on Thursday, and return to near normal over the weekend with well above normal readings expected by the middle of next week.

UPDATE

With showers today, elevations above 5000 feet saw snowfall at times today, with portions of Summerlin observing snowfall this morning down to around 3000 feet. Bristlecone Trail up in the Spring Mountains received around 5 inches of snow, according to a SNOTEL, with Lee Canyon receiving 2-4 inches. Rain rates were healthiest on the eastern flank of the Spring Mountains / Red Rock / Summerlin, with gauges reading between 0.08 and 0.16 inches of rainfall. Otherwise, generally 0.01 to 0.08 inches measured across central and southern Mohave County as well as far southern Clark County today.

Shower activity continues to wane across the forecast area this evening, with persistent light showers over eastern San Bernardino County, far southeastern Lincoln County, northeastern Clark County, and across Mohave County. That said, the latest HRRR is holding onto the idea that the light shower activity in southeastern Lincoln / northeastern Clark counties will continue to build over the next few hours before pushing eastward across Lake Mead. Impacts would include sudden gusty winds from the direction of the storm, so nighttime boaters should pay extra attention to the forecast this evening in the event that they need to seek temporary shelter.

Expect a return of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, with CAPE values between 100 and 250 J/kg painted across southern Nevada, far southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona. Shower activity will have a little less moisture to tap into tomorrow as it did today and will favor zones further east. In general, impacts should be minimal.

Otherwise, temperatures were quite cool across the region today. Las Vegas observed a high temperature of 59, which is tied for the 3rd coolest April 2nd on record. No changes were made to the forecast this evening, as it remains in good shape.

LONG TERM

Friday through Wednesday.

The broad area of upper-level troughing will finally close off over southern Nevada on Thursday before it starts to push eastward on Friday. Expect gusty north winds across the forecast area on Friday and Saturday afternoons as a result of the trough shifting east and a growing ridge of high pressure building over the southeastern Pacific Ocean to our west. Chances of wind gusts over 40 mph remain confined to the higher terrain as well as north-south oriented valleys such as the Colorado River Valley. Expect impacts to east- west thoroughfares as well as to area lakes, with wave heights at or above 2 feet possible. Slight PoPs persist in our far northern and eastern zones Friday afternoon, though accumulation is likely to be little-to-none.

Through the weekend and start of next week, skies clear and temperatures increase above seasonal normals as a ridge of high pressure builds in the Pacific across the Desert Southwest. Monday and Tuesday have a 60% and 90% chance, respectively, for reaching 80 degrees here in Las Vegas. HeatRisk increases back to "Low" (Level 1 on a scale of 0-4) for desert valleys over the weekend including Las Vegas, Moapa Valley, Death Valley, Pahrump Valley, and the Colorado River Valley.

[Note] "Low" HeatRisk does not mean that chances of heat-related illness are low for any one individual - it means chances are low for the general population. People who should take extra precautions during "Low" HeatRisk days include those out of town from cooler locations, those consuming alcohol, caffeine, or other drugs, and those without adequate means of hydration or air conditioning.

Meanwhile, chances of 90 degrees return to Las Vegas and 100 degrees return to Death Valley mid-to-late week as the southeastern Pacific ridge continues to build into the extended forecast. HeatRisk climbs to "Moderate" (Level 2 on a scale of 0-4) for our lowest valleys on Wednesday.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package

Once shower activity and associated northerly outflow breezes weaken, winds should settle into their typical, overnight pattern or go light and variable. Cloud cover will gradually improve overnight. Similar conditions anticipated tomorrow afternoon as showers redevelop on the high terrain. Greatest confidence in precipitation is over the Spring Mountains, with outflow from this activity driving westerly breezes. Winds may exceed 10 knots at times, potentially gusting up to 25 knots if convection is stronger. Chance of thunder less than 20%. Precipitation potential will wane in the early evening, resulting in improving sky conditions and light winds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Shower activity and associated outflow winds in the Las Vegas and lower Colorado River valleys are expected to wane in the next few hours. As this occurs, winds should return to typical, overnight patterns or go light and variable. Shower activity returns Thursday afternoon, albeit with less coverage. Best chances are across southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and eastern San Bernardino County. Outflow winds from this activity should favor a northerly or westerly direction at sites in the Las Vegas and lower Colorado River valleys, but erratic winds are always possible with convection. Precipitation potential will wane in the early evening, resulting in improving sky conditions and light winds.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.