textproduct: Las Vegas

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty north winds will continue down the Colorado River Valley through Wednesday. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected with dry condition and above normal temperatures the next few days.

* A weak system could bring low chances for precipitation Friday to parts of the region, but impacts are not expected.

* A pattern shift arrives early next week which will bring cooler temperatures as well as the potential for precipitation and breezy winds. High confidence for a change in the weather but details remain uncertain.

DISCUSSION

through Early Next Week.

Not a cloud in the sky over the region this afternoon as a dry upper level ridge builds over the Southwest US. Satellite does show a low starting to spin up off the coast of the Baja Peninsula where it will remain the next few days. In response to the increased pressure gradient between the two systems, enhanced north winds developed down the Colorado River Valley this afternoon. Widespread gusts 20-30 MPH have been reported in the lower Colorado River Valley with isolated higher gusts in typical windy spots. Breezy north winds will continue tonight and Wednesday as the weather set up changes little in the next 24 hours. Similar or slightly lower gusts are expected tomorrow afternoon in the Colorado River Valley. Boaters should use caution as building waves on gusty north winds are likely on Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu. Elsewhere, winds may favor the north on Wednesday with gust up to 20 MPH, but wind impacts are not expected. By Thursday, the ridge starts to break down and winds are expected to slowly diminish in the Colorado River Valley and light winds are expected elsewhere. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the rest of the week.

The low off the coast of the Baja Peninsula will eject northeast into the region on Friday, potentially interacting with an incoming weakening trough over the West Coast. Models are struggling to resolve how/if the low phases with the trough as well as how much moisture will be pulled up with it. The current precipitation forecast on Friday is mostly dry with low chances in the Sierra and Spring Mountains- uncertain if this will change as models better resolve the situation. Even if low chances for precipitation become more widespread, meteogram members across multiple ensembles do not show impactful amounts so rain/snow amounts should be light. In addition, the low will be quick hitting so precipitation would be short lived, which would also limit impacts. Warm air will be associated with this systems so temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.

After a brief break, a more potent trough is expected to move in the beginning of next week. Cluster analysis members all show a deep upper level system dropping into the region Monday and Tuesday but differ on strength and track. This would result in increased chances for precipitation and winds, but little confidence in any specific details. There is increasing confidence for cooler temperatures the beginning of next week compared to the recent mild conditions as this trough moves in.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid

For the 00Z Forecast Package...Generally light winds favoring typical diurnal trends will continue through Wednesday morning with clear skies. Northeasterly winds will be on the increase by midday with speeds of 8-12 knots expected and sporatic gusts to around 18 knots. Winds will ease after sunset and begin to shift more to the west or northwest after nightfall.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty north winds will continue along the Colorado River Valley through the period, with the strongest winds expected during the daylight hours in the 25 - 35 knot range near EED and IFP. Elsewhere, northeasterly breezes are expected in the afternoon hours of a lesser intensity, with the exception of BIH where winds are expected to remain fairly light. Skies will be clear areawide.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.