textproduct: Las Vegas

SYNOPSIS

A beautiful Christmas Day is in store with seasonal temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and northerly breezes. An active storm track to our north will keep most of the area dry and mild but also bring periods of breezy winds through the remainder of 2024.

LONG TERM

Monday through Thursday.

Forecast confidence decreases as we head into next week, especially around New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. This is due to interensemble variability regarding a potential second system dropping into the area as Sunday's system ejects into the Plains. While both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions resolve this system to some degree, they disagree on the strength of the system and the speed at which it moves through. The ECMWF favors a faster and weaker system, whereas its GFS counterpart favors a slower and stronger system digging into our forecast area on New Year's Eve. Despite these differences regarding the strength and speed of this system, the overwhelming majority of ensemble members agree that this will be a dry system. This can be seen reflected in the NBM 6- hour probabilities of measurable precipitation, which remains under 10% New Year's Eve through New Year's Day for much of our forecast area. The primary forecast elements impacted by these discrepancies are temperature and wind (i.e., just how cool and windy could it be as we ring in the New Year). Beyond New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, there is good ensemble agreement that an upper-level ridge will develop over the Western US, which will allow for a warmer than normal start to the year.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid

Light winds with speeds under 8KT will continue through Friday morning, following diurnal wind patterns. Winds through daybreak will remain southwesterly, becoming variable before settling out of the northeast this afternoon. Thereafter, winds return to the southwest overnight, though some variability will be possible. VFR conditions prevail, with passing mid and high clouds with SCT-BKN bases around 15-20kft. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Light diurnally driven winds with sustained speeds around 8KT or less will continue at regional terminals. The exception will be this afternoon at KBIH, where gusty northwesterly winds will develop, with gusts to around 20KT expected. After sunset, gusts will diminish, and winds once again become light. SCT- BKN clouds with bases around 15-20KFT will continue streaming over the area through the forecast period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.