textproduct: Las Vegas

KEY MESSAGES

* Monsoonal moisture will support one more round of isolated shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon.

* A drying trend is expected the first half of the week as flow becomes more westerly. Relatively cooler temperatures will also overspread the region by mid week.

DISCUSSION

Through next Saturday.

Although the downward trend in moisture continues today, there is still enough moisture and instability for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. CAMs show potential over Mohave County, the Colorado River Valley, and eastern San Bernardino County. Forecast soundings still indicate pockets of deep moisture and PWATs in the 1 to 1.5 inch range in these areas, which means that heavy downpours and flash flooding still can't be ruled out. Soundings also show 1200 to 1500 J/kg DCAPE, meaning gusty outflow winds are also within the realm of possibility. Convection should favor high terrain where forcing is the greatest and activity will end after sunset with a loss of surface heating.

A large upper trough will track east into the California coast early this week, pushing any remaining moisture out of the forecast area. With lower heights, temperatures become 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals by midweek. This means highs in the low 90s to upper 80s for Las Vegas. The drier air will also bring more relief overnight with cool morning lows, including temperatures in the low 70s in Las Vegas by midweek. Temperatures may start to increase again towards next weekend as the low exits east and heights aloft begin to rise.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package

Generally light winds expected overnight with wind speeds under 8 knots expected. Southerly winds with gusts to near 20 knots expected tomorrow afternoon before weakening after sunset. Thunderstorm activity will be minimal Sunday with temperatures remaining below 100 degrees.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Drier conditions expected Sunday though a few isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across Northwest Arizona and the southern Mojave Desert. Otherwise, light winds in the morning will before breezy in the afternoon out of the south or southwest with gusts to near 20 knots, with directions favoring more westerly directions near KDAG.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.