textproduct: Las Vegas

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period, with light winds and dry conditions through Tuesday.

* Mid to late week, a trough will move through the region, bringing increased winds, slightly cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of precipitation to portions of the eastern Sierra.

DISCUSSION

Per latest water vapor imagery and 500 hPa RUC analysis, a shortwave is currently coming ashore over southern California, and will slowly dampen and translate northeastward over the next 24 hours. Given a lack of forcing and the overall weakness of the wave, the only noticeable impact will be an uptick in high clouds this evening through Monday. Otherwise, persistence is the rule as temperatures through Tuesday will remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early November, with light afternoon breezes.

Conditions finally change Wednesday into Thursday, as a shortwave breaks off of a deepening trough out of the Gulf of Alaska, and moves across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. Precise timing remains uncertain, however, ensembles and cluster analyses remain in good agreement regarding the depth of the trough. Given its expected trajectory to the north of the area, the primary impacts will be increased winds on Wednesday afternoon, as well as a slight chance of precipitation for the eastern Sierra in northwestern Inyo County Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. QPF with this system continues to decrease with each subsequent forecast, now under 0.20", with only a light dusting to an inch of snow currently forecast along the Sierra Crest. Of greater concern will be increased winds, especially along the Sierra Crest and Foothills across the northern Owens Valley, the higher terrain of the western Mojave, and to the north of the Spring Mountains in the vicinity of Desert Rock, where there remains a 50-70% probability of wind gusts of 40 mph or greater. These winds are expected to be localized, but could produce hazardous travel conditions for high profile vehicles, and thus, forecast trends will continue to be monitored. In the wake of this system, temperatures are expected to cool down a few degrees on Thursday, but even then, will remain above normal, with a subtle warming trend heading into next weekend maintaining the streak of above normal temperatures into the second week of November.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package

Light winds following diurnal directional patterns will continue through the forecast period. VFR conditions prevail, with FEW-SCT high clouds around 20-25kft overspreading the area this evening onward, with FEW mid clouds around 12-15kft expected Monday afternoon and evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds across the region will generally remain around 8KT or less, following typical diurnal directional patterns the next 24 hours. VFR conditions prevail, with FEW-SCT high clouds around 20-25kft overspreading the area this evening onward, and midlevel clouds around 15kft expected to develop across portions of southeastern California and southern Nevada Monday afternoon.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.