textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions to start the week.

- Strong west to northwest winds Sunday.

- Cooler temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation move in late Monday through mid-week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Saturday) Issued at 900 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show northwest flow over the forecast area as mild troughing sits over the Great Lakes region. 03Z surface analysis shows weak trough to our east as surface high moves into western Wyoming this evening.

Winds have subsided a bit this evening, however will remain a bit breezy overnight out of the west. Another hot day in store thermal ridging moves in Sunday. Low level westerly winds usher in temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s during the afternoon. Good mixing will bring gusty winds into the area for today, with some areas seeing gusts up to 50 mph in the afternoon. Wind advisory remains in affect for northwestern SD, and have added southwestern Fall River county to the advisory.

Upper flow becomes more zonal on Monday, transitioning to southwest flow late Monday into Tuesday, as weak upper trough slides over the Rockies and into the northern plains. This will result in cooler temperatures setting up for Tuesday, and increasing chances for precipitation. Expect highs Tuesday/Wednesday to be 20-25 degrees cooler than today and Monday. Weak forcing with this trough will bring chances for light rain/snow Monday night through Tuesday, with some light snow accumulations possible over the Black Hills. Northwest flow returns over the forecast area the latter half of the week, with multiple weak disturbances bringing chances for light precipitation closer to the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued At 439 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected today. The strongest winds will be this afternoon over far northwestern SD plains and far southwestern SD with gusts around 40-45kt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 900 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday over the region. Strong west to northwest winds are expected during the day, with gusts up to 50 mph possible over parts of the western SD plains. RH's are expected to dip in to the upper teens over areas east and south of the Black hills, resulting in near critical fire weather conditions. Elsewhere in the plains, RH's dropping to 20-25 percent along with gusty winds will still pose elevated fire weather conditions.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012-013-041-078. WY...None.