textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms over western SD today. Main threats include large to very large hail (2+") and damaging winds (60+ mph).

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms over the Black Hills for Saturday with main threats large hail (1+") and damaging winds (60+ mph).

- At or above normal highs continue with high temps in the 80s and 90s through the weekend and well into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 1222 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Thunderstorms have begun. As of the 11AM, the recent storm activity has been mainly contained to the northern Black Hills with lingering leftover showers and storms in the western South Dakota plains. One storm cell produced impressive golf ball to ping pong ball sized hail in and near Spearfish.

For this afternoon through tonight, strong to severe storms chances will linger, especially around the Black Hills. Storm initiation and growth will likely happen from north to south along the outflow boundary that developed earlier. Large hail, strong winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will accompany these storms.

Beyond the Black Hills, storms will track east to southeast through the afternoon. Another concern is storm development in eastern Wyoming and eastern Montana that would track into the area this evening. These storms could be strong to severe with strong winds being the main concern. Overnight storms will weaken and fade out.

This weekend is looking like a story with two very different chapters. Surface low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies will finally kick out eastward as an upper level trough slides eastwards along the northern edge of a high pressure building to our south. Once that trough and surface low move out, the ridge of high pressure will build over the CWA for Sunday.

This pattern will give the area storm chances Saturday into Saturday evening with afternoon temps in the 80s to near 90F. If we see any severe weather on Saturday, the latest guidance is putting the better chances of severe weather, around 10 to 30%, to the south in Nebraska and to the east closer to Iowa. A marginal risk for severe weather has been placed over the Black Hills and south.

Sunday is looking very different as that high pressure builds. Skies will be clear to mostly clear and dry as afternoon temps jump into the 90s to near 100F. Cant rule out pop up storms over and near the Black Hills though.

A quick glance at next week, the near daily chances for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms continue. Temperatures will be at or above normal with highs in the 80s to 90s and overnight lows in the 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1206 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected across western SD starting at 12PM (noon) and last through the evening. The strongest storms may have lightning, gusty and erratic winds, and strong downpours with them, so isolated MVFR/IFR conditions are possible associated with the convection. After the storms move out, VFR conditions are expected. KGCC will be VFR with very little to no precipitation impacts for the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.