textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and unsettled through the weekend with on and off precipitation.

- Gradual warm up towards the end of the forecast period.

UPDATE

Issued at 949 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Latest water vapour loop had upper low spinning over southern SK, pinwheeling multiple shortwaves around it. One 90kt jet streak assisting (mostly) rain across southeast third of the CWA per regional radar loop/IR enhancement. Even some isolated thunder noted this evening. Wave will continue to support some rain/snow overnight into Saturday as it slowly slips away. Some indication in latest CAMS that spirited snow showers may develop over Black Hills Saturday afternoon. Next wave arrives for Sunday/Monday as a broad area of QG-forcing/frontogenesis moves from the Rockies into the plains. Probabilistic guidance has been persistent with painting beneficial QPF over the CWA, especially the southeast half.

Forecast tweaked and updated to address these thoughts.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Current Water Vapor an upper air models show the upper low over southern SK/MB, with a jet streak over the southern half of the forecast area. 18Z surface analysis depicts surface high over eastern SD this afternoon, surface low over eastern WY with a warm front stretching into western NE. Radar shows widespread light precipitation across the forecast area with a mix of rain/snow depending on location. Winds are generally light out of the northwest, with temperatures ranging from the 40s and 50s over the plains, upper 20s and 30s over northeastern WY and the Black Hills.

Upper low slowly lifts northeastward over the weekend. Meanwhile multiple disturbances circling the low will bring on and off light precipitation through the weekend. Still some model discrepancy on the locations of best forcing with these disturbances, however ensemble guidance points towards the highest QPF amounts being over the Black Hills, and southwestern to south central SD through the weekend. 72 hr prob for >= 0.5" through the weekend has nice signal for 50-70% in these locations. Areas may see a break in the precipitation Saturday, but a stronger waver moves through the region Saturday night into Sunday, bringing more widespread rain/snow across the area. The main push of precipitation will exit the region early Monday, with drier but still unsettled conditions expected through the work week. A few weak disturbances may bring some areas of light precipitation, but not as widespread as this weekend. Temperatures remain relatively stagnant through the first half of the week as well, with little change in the overall pattern. We do see a gradual warmup back into the 50s and 60s the latter half of next week as the upper low shifts over the far eastern CONUS.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 1009 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

MVFR-IFR conds will linger across south central South Dakota and around the Black Hills this afternoon, with scattered snow showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected elsewhere. The next system will slowly move into the area tonight, with MVFR-IFR cigs spreading northward through the region on Sunday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.