textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat.

-Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions through the weekend into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 758 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Based on guidance consistency and in coordination with neighboring offices, have converted the Extreme Heat Watch to a Heat Advisory for all zones outside of the Black Hills. This will be in effect noon MDT Saturday and run through 800 PM MDT Tuesday evening.

UPDATE Issued at 1011 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Models remain in good agreement on the upper level ridge building over the region, driving a sustained warming trend into next week. Highs will climb into the 90s Friday as the ridge axis shifts into the region, then push into the 100s Saturday through early next week as the ridge strengthens and becomes the dominant feature. A slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will persists over the Black Hills and northwest SD Friday ahead of the ridge, but severe weather is not anticipated given limited instability and weak flow aloft. With temperatures reaching the upper 90s to low 100s and dewpoints remaining low, fire weather concerns will steadily increase through the weekend into next week and will be one of the primary focuses going forward.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Latest satellite imagery and radar show mostly clear to clear skies for most of the area. The big exception is the Black Hills and northeast Wyoming, where clouds and a few storm cells have bubbled up in the heat of the day. As of this writing, 1 PM, these storms haven't lasted long and fade out quickly after maturing.

For the rest of this afternoon through tonight, storms will continue to develop through the afternoon and track east then southeast through the evening. Some of these storms have the potential to be severe with the main concern being hail and a secondary concern for strong wind gusts. Overnight though should be quiet with light winds and overnight temps dropping to the upper 50s to lower 60s.

For Friday, an upper level high pressure will build and start to shift northward. This will bring a warming trend to the area. Afternoon temps on Friday will reach the 90s for most of the area. Low end chances for short lived, afternoon storms in the Black Hills.

The weekend is looking hot with highs at or above 100F for both Saturday and Sunday. Morning temps will be in the 60s to near 70. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued due to heat index values above 100 degrees for multiple days in a row. With the hot temperatures and low dew points, humidities will be low so fire weather conditions will be elevated.

For a quick look at next week, the hot weather will continue through mid week. A potential pattern change would give cooler, but still warmer than normal, temperatures later in the week. As the pattern changes, thunderstorms would be possible.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued At 531 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated storms may redevelop this afternoon, mainly in the Black Hills vicinity.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Tuesday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032- 041>044-046-047-049-072>078. WY...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ054>056-058>060.