textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- 60-80 MPH wind gusts continue today, diminishing tonight - Upslope-enhanced snowfall over the northern Black Hills with blowing snow. Some snow on the plains with blowing snow, especially over south-central SD where 1-2" may fall - Wind chills tonight zero to -30F - Another headlineable wind event shaping up for Sunday - Elevated to near-critical fire weather through the weekend

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 208 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

09z surface analysis had deep low over ON with first cold front well into the southern plains and secondary front gathering momentum over ND/eastern MT. Water vapour loop had upper low over western ON with several shortwaves rotating around it into the northern Plains. Regional radar loop depicted patchy light snow/flurries over the CWA with some upslope pulsing over the northern Black Hills. Effects of ongoing widespread high wind event the main concern this forecast.

Through tonight, ON upper low/trough shifts southeastward as associated deep upper low slowly weakens. It will push a secondary cold front into the CWA early this morning, tightening the local pressure gradient further, increasing lower tropospheric cold air advection, and wringing out 40-70kt 0-2km boundary layer flow. Current extent of High Wind Warnings (60-80 MPH gusts) looks good, but did extend southwestern SD by a couple of hours and left northwestern until midnight based on latest forecast Bufkit soundings and HREF guidance. Froude numbers (>1) remain favorable for upslope enhanced snow (1 to locally 4" today) for the northern Black Hills, but 0-2km RH values rapidly drop later this morning. Best synoptic moisture/forcing will remain east of the CWA today, but latest guidance suggests a bit more snow for south-central SD (1- 2"). Expect blowing snow where snow is falling or has accumulated with greatly reduced visibilities (<1 mile) at times, which continues to be included in the High Wind Warning products. Temperatures will be near guidance, but combination of winds and temperatures dropping to +10F to -5F will result in wind chills from zero to -30F (northwest SD). -30F is in cold weather advisory territory for far northwest SD, so headlines for the wind chills may needed on the day shift for early Saturday morning.

For Saturday, a warm front moves into the western half of the CWA with very dry air in place. Next cold front moves through late Saturday night/early Sunday in response to shortwave dropping into the upper Midwest. Winds don't look quite as strong as today, but they aren't far off (ECMWF EFI 70-90th percentile). More wind headlines likely.

Looking to next week, northwest flow aloft continues with a series of moisture-starved shortwaves affecting the northern Plains. Low level baroclinic zone will be in place with oscillating temperatures and low confidence per 15-25F spreads toward the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1019 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Strong northwest winds gusting to 40-70kts will continue today into this evening before winds begin to slowly fall off to 25 to 45kts into Saturday afternoon. The strongest winds will be from K2WX- KRAP in northwestern SD. Local MVFR/IFR conditions may occur with any snow showers or blowing snow, particularly over/near the northern Black Hills and from KD07-KICR. Limited snow for the TAFS sites should keep impacts minimal. Cloud cover is expected to remain VFR though periods of broken ceilings at or above 3500-4000ft AGL will occur. Overall flight conditions will improve tonight and overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 208 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Strong winds continue today (60-80 MPH wind gusts), diminishing tonight. The best chance for wetting precipitation (1-4" snow) will be over the northern Black Hills due to upslope-enhancement. 1-2" may fall over south-central SD. A warm front moves through Saturday with very dry air. Minimum relative humidities Saturday from 10-30% are likely, driest over the Black Hills and far western SD. A strong cold front then moves through late Saturday night/early Sunday with another round of strong gusty northwest winds. The result of these weather systems will be elevated to near critical fire weather conditions through the weekend.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning until midnight MST tonight for SDZ001-002-012- 013-025-026-031-072-073-078. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for SDZ014-032-043-044-046-047-049-077. High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ024-028. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for SDZ027-029-030- 041-042-074>076. WY...High Wind Warning until midnight MST tonight for WYZ060. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ054>056-058- 059. High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ057.