textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather through much of this week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1244 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Current upper air analysis shows southwest flow over the US as trof deepens off the coast of the PNW. The CWA sits under mostly clear skies with sfc stations reporting temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Broad ridging will dominate the pattern through this week, keeping conditions warm and dry. Weak shortwave and attendant cool front will cross the region late Tuesday. Not expecting any precip with this system but highs will be slightly cooler on Wednesday.

Amplifying upper ridge and breezy southerly flow will support much warmer temps on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s across much of the region.

Our next chance at precip comes this weekend as trof pushes onshore over the western US. Deterministic and ensemble model solutions diverge on the evolution of this trof as it pushes eastward into the central US, leading to low forecast certainty on timing and specific impacts from this system.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1111 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Breezy winds will continue across the northeast WY and NW SD plains.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.

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