textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning remains in affect for much of western SD. Expect wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- Winter Weather Advisory is now in affect for northwestern SD from tomorrow night through Thursday morning.

- Potential for a winter storm to impact the area on Friday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1249 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Rest of today...Winds picked up a little later than anticipated but widespread wind gusts in the 55-65 mph range have been observed over the past hour. Localized stronger wind gusts over 65 mph are occurring in areas where precipitation has developed. Expect this trend to continue through the rest of the afternoon. Winds will quickly diminish through the overnight hours but we will hang on to the scattered precipitation across the region.

Immediately behind this current system that has brought the winds to region, the next system is following closely behind. An area of low pressure over the MT Rockies on Wednesday will slide SE, arriving to the CWA on Thursday. Strong overrunning will support 700mb frontogenesis/isentropic lift on Wednesday, bringing widespread light snow in the morning, then becoming rain through the day as warmer air advects in from the west. he broad band of snow over central South Dakota could become freezing rain as warmer air aloft noses in. Ice accumulations have increased slightly in this latest forecast package, especially across northwestern SD. With the combination of snow, rain/snow and then freezing falling in the same locations with ice accumulations approaching a tenth of an inch, the Winter Weather Advisory was issued. Additionally ice conditions may continue even after the precipitation has stopped as wet roads and power lines may flash freeze with the strong CAA expected across these areas as we progress into the evening hours on Thursday ahead of the next storm system.

Models are beginning to agree on the end of the week system in terms of targeting northwestern SD for the potential for some accumulating snows around 6". With locations to the south seeing only 1-2", with this sharp gradient we need to continue to monitor the evolutions and tracks the models show to pinpoint just where the heaviest snows will fall.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 959 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions due to lower clouds/ra/sn will affect northeast WY/northwest SD today. Otherwise VFR conditions expected over southwest into south-central SD. Strong winds gusting to +50kt are expected across much of the western SD plains today before slowly decreasing this evening and overnight.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ Wednesday for SDZ001- 002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 11 AM MST Thursday for SDZ001-002-012>014-032-078. WY...High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Wednesday for WYZ060.