textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy with light rain/snow Wednesday

- Elevated fire weather conditions return for Thursday and Friday

- Another round of colder temperatures and chances for precipitation return over the weekend

UPDATE

Issued at 946 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Forecast remains on track for the most part. Made some minor tweaks to QPF and PoPs based off the 00Z models, however no real difference to the forecast. Best chance for any accumulating snowfall remains in the northern and Wyoming Black Hills, where an inch or two could fall in higher elevations. Elsewhere can expect either rain, rain/snow mix, or some light snow with little to no accumulating snow expected. Total QPF expected < 0.1" in most areas, while far northeast Wyoming into the northern Black Hills could see 0.1" or slightly more.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1251 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Current upper air water vapor analysis depicts large-scale ridging over western CONUS, with the ridge axis stretching from southern Alberta down to the southern CA/AZ, northwesterly flow over the forecast area, and troughing off the east coast with a Nor'easter off the coast of Nova Scotia. Another surface-low is positioned over southwestern Ontario, with a weak cold front extending from the low down through western KS. Satellite shows widespread high cloud cover over much of the forecast region, while radar is picking up some light returns over northwest SD with little to no precip reaching the ground. Surface observations currently show breezy northwesterly winds behind the cold front, gusting up to 40 mph, and cooler temperatures, mainly in the 30s and 40s.

Another shortwave will move over the forecast region late tonight into Wednesday, brining snow and rain showers along with breezy conditions. Due to model variability, there is still uncertainty for QPF totals. Trends continue to lean towards >0.10 inch across much of northeastern WY and the northern/central Black Hills (~45 to 75 percent chance), while elsewhere amounts between a trace and 0.05 inches are more likely (~70 to 35 percent, respectively, per NBM- CONUS). Winds will begin to pick up after 16Z, starting in northeast WY then spreading into northwestern SD, with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts. Temperatures will start off cool in the morning before warming into the 40s by the afternoon, resulting in chances for mixed precip over northeast WY and northwestern SD before switching to mostly rain. Best chances for accumulating snow will be over the higher elevation northern Black Hills regions, where an inch or two may be possible.

Mild and dry conditions will return Thursday and Friday, with breezy northwest winds resulting in elevated fire weather conditions with afternoon relative humidities dropping to the low 20s and upper teens for some areas at times. Another shot at colder temperatures and light precipitation will return this weekend as another disturbance slides across south-central Canada.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1022 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Rain/snow showers are quickly pushing east of KRAP as of 1720, with lingering showers in the central and southern Black Hills. Spotty showers will linger through 20z, mainly south of KRAP and in NW SD. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions are expected in heavier showers. Conditions continue to improve to VFR from north to south now through 20-21z.

Gusty NW winds will develop in the showers wake, with gusts 25 to 35 knots expected after 19z at KGCC and KRAP.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.