textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm through Memorial Day with isolated afternoon thunderstorms, mainly over the Black Hills

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Tuesday night and continue through the rest of the week

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Upper flow is transitioning this afternoon from WNW to near zonal. Vis sat shows high based cu has developed across NE WY through the Black Hills. Still can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the Hills late this afternoon, but most areas will remain dry. Overnight advection will bring warmer temps to the area on Memorial Day. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again, can't rule out an isolated afternoon shower or storm over the Hills, but otherwise quiet weather is expected. Models continue to show a deep, stationary upper low across in the vicinity of the Great Basin and northern California through the middle and latter part of this week. Good moisture transport from the Gulf sets up over the central to northern Plains, bringing PWATs ranging from 125-175% of normal. The moisture will be available...it's just a matter of where the best forcing sets up. The ECM continues to focus on the Dakotas while the GFS targets WY, though there has been some shift eastward later in the week closer to the ECM. Will continue to monitor the trends.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 537 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Minor changes in wind directions and speeds but that being said, speeds around 10 to 12 knots or less are expected.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.