textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Mild and dry into next week, breezy at times

UPDATE

Issued at 902 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2026

Forecast remains on track this evening with mild and dry weather expected over the next several days. Breezy northwest winds will develop tomorrow afternoon as a weak impulse/front moves through the region. Gusts of over 40 mph are possible over northwestern SD and in the lee of the Black Hills, though not anticipating any widespread advisory level gusts.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 942 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2026

Mean western NOAM ridging will support mild and dry weather into next week as Pac flow continues aloft. Weak/skirting impulses will support cool fronts at times to knock temps down a few degrees and support passing breezy days. Temps will be above normal in the period. Departing cool front has knocked temps down 10 to 15 degrees for today, but still mild and above normal with highs in the 50s/60s. The next system will move into the region tomorrow with warmer temps expected per frontside SW flow. This system will force another trough through the region, with breezy NW winds expected by afternoon. A few gusts over 40 mph can be expected esp on the NW SD Plains and into the lee of the Black Hills. A back door cool front will slide into the region later Wed, which will knock down temps across the SD Plains Thur, esp toward central SD. However, any cool down will be short lived as the western NOAM ridge quickly rebuilds into the region, supporting a very mild and dry weekend with mild weather continuing into next week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued At 1018 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A cold front will pass through the region after 10/16-18z, bringing gusty northwest winds into the region for Tuesday afternoon. Wind gusts will be strongest across the western SD plains - gusts 25 to 35 knots expected.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.