textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow this morning with minor accumulations

- Strong winds possible on Tuesday, with gusts over 60 mph

- Unsettled and colder for the second half of the week; snow amounts uncertain

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 323 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Northwest flow continues aloft across the western to central CONUS. The next wave is crossing MT/WY at this time, with upper level forcing ahead of the wave, along with a strong surface trough/warm front. KUDX radar shows snow showers moving across NE WY and far western SD, along the state line. Behind the trough over the NE WY plains, temps are in the upper 20s to mid 30s...and over western SD in the teens. This band of snow will continue eastward this morning, crossing the western SD plains before moving into central SD by late morning. Accumulations will be light. Lingering snow showers are possible across the northern/western Black Hills where upslope enhancement and steep lapse rates will persist until drier air moves in around midday. Highs will generally be in the 30s to mid 40s. Warmer air will continue to advect in overnight tonight, as highs reach the 40s to lower 50s. A trough crossing the area Monday will support windy conditions, with gusts to 35 to 45mph. The next wave affect the region on Tuesday. The extensive warm airmass in place across the northern plains will support highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. A strong upper wave/surface low will cross the Dakotas bringing strong NW winds. Guidance over the last 24 hours has trended slightly northward with the track of the system, which has slightly weakened forecast winds for the CWA. However, it still looks like High Wind Warning criteria gusts may still affect the region. Still, am curious how the solutions will change with the 12z run and if wind speeds will continue to decrease. Will keep on eye on the trend for potential issuance of headlines. Unsettled weather is still on tap for the second half of the week into the weekend. While it does look like the area will see snow, solutions vary widely, ranging from light to heavy amounts. There is agreement that much colder air will push into the region toward the end of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 956 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Light snow and patchy freezing fog are causing widespread MVFR/IFR and LCL LIFR conditions across northeastern WY into western SD. These conditions should continue through the rest of tonight into early this morning. Conditions should improve to VFR from west to east after ~16-18z.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.