textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- No significant or impactful weather for the next several days

- Mild and dry weather through early Monday with high temperatures increasing to 15-25F above average

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Tuesday) Issued at 929 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Benign weather pattern will continue through the next several days as near zonal flow persists across the Northern Plains.

Clear skies, light winds, and chilly temperatures on tap for the region overnight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20s across the lower elevations and into the teens across the Black Hills. Weak upper level wave will graze the region later Wednesday/tomorrow with the best moisture/lift (and thus the best chances for precip) displaced to the south/east. South central SD could see a few showers in the evening hours but the rest of the CWA should remain dry. Otherwise, the only other impacts from this system will be increased cloudiness and breezy southerly winds across southern SD. Temperatures will be mild, in the upper 40s to 50s.

Conditions will remain dry and mild through the weekend with temperatures slowly warming to 15 to 25 degrees above average (highs will be in the 50s to 60s by Monday). Near zonal flow will transition to weak ridging over the central US and southwest flow over the Northern Plains as trof deepens just off the west coast. NBM forecast temperature spreads increase in the beginning of next week as models differ on how the upper level pattern will evolve. QPF chances return early next week along with the pattern change, though forecast confidence for any specifics on timing, location, and how much precip we'll get is low at this time due to aforementioned lack of consensus amongst ensemble guidance.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued At 401 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.