textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Mild and dry into next week, breezy at times

UPDATE

Issued at 857 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

Forecast remains on track this evening with continued above- average temperatures and dry weather expected over the next several days. Tomorrow will see slightly cooler temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s as a weak cool front moves through the region. Breezy northwest winds will accompany the frontal passage, with gusts of 35 mph possible across portions of the South Dakota plains. A larger temperature gradient will set up for Thursday and Friday as a stronger cold front pushes through the eastern half of the CWA, with highs in the 40s towards central South Dakota and 60s in northwestern Wyoming.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Monday) Issued at 1019 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

Blocking pattern will persist as the western NOAM ridge continues to support mild and dry weather into next week over the region. Weak near daily impulses will support cool fronts through the flow, which will keep high temps in the 50s/60s for most days. A few low 70s may be possible at times. The strongest of the fronts will be a backdoor cool front Wed, which will mainly affect eastern areas of the FA. Upper impulse is moving through the region today and supporting a sfc trough into the area. Winds will be breezy behind the trough with gusts over 40 mph expected on portions of the SD Plains, esp the NW SD Plains into western central. A stronger Central Canadian upper trough will dive south out of Canada Wed and support a backdoor cool front into the region. The only impact from this system will be cooler highs over the eastern half for Thursday. This cool down will be short-lived as the western NOAM ridge quickly rebuilds into the region, supporting a very mild and dry weekend. Mild and dry weather will persist into next week. However, an upper trough is expected to dig into the western CONUS next week, and will eventually shift east. This will support a transition to unsettled conds later in the week, with cooler weather as well. Much uncertainly among models and guidance per this troughs evolution and track, with low confidence in forecast details beyond next Wed.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1015 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Breezy northwest winds expected Wednesday after 17-18z across the area, with gusts 20 to 30 knots. Winds will diminish after 12/00z.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.