textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northwest winds continue today and tonight - gusts of 40 to 60 mph.

- Rain changes to snow across the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills this afternoon where 4 to 6 inches of snow is possible by Tuesday morning. Uncertainty in amounts given melting plus timing of transition to snow.

- Dry Tuesday through rest of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 744 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Quick look at new 00z guidance in line with latest KUDX radar loop over the northern Black Hills. Should see several more inches of snow accumulation, mainly above 5500 feet with Winter Weather Advisory totals still plausible (3-6"). Locally higher amounts possible, but drier air isn't too far away (approaching WY/MT/SD border area) per latest nighttime microphysics RGB. Rest of forecast still in good shape with a few wind gusts of 45mph+ for the Wind Advisory. Will continue to monitor and drop the Wind Advisory as needed through the night.

UPDATE Issued at 616 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Latest 01z surface observations showed wind gusts have dropped off early this evening as best pressure rises shift southward into NE. Still seeing gusts around 45kts over portions of western SD, so have kept current Wind Advisories in effect and downgraded the High Wind Warning to an Advisory.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1245 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave lifting north of the forecast area along with another stout shortwave trough ejecting into the central and southern Plains. Surface low is centered over ND/SD/MN border with cold front stretching southward into western KS and a second surface low over west-central KS. Northwest winds continue across the forecast area. Gusts have started to come up over the past hour with 50-55 mph gusts across Meade and Pennington counties. Expect wind gusts to increase through the afternoon with occasional gusts to 60 mph through the evening hours across Fall River and portions of western SD plains where a High Wind Warning remains in effect. Elsewhere, gusts 40 to 50 mph are expected through the evening hours.

Precipitation has increased across the northern Black Hills over the past few hours given upslope enhancement. The models have been too quick with the transition from rain to snow across the Hills compared to observations, leading to unrealistic snow accumulation that has yet to materialize. Starting to see the transition to all snow now across the higher elevations of the Black Hills, which will continue through 22z. Melting and timing of transition to all snow introduce considerable uncertainty regarding final amounts, especially below 5500 feet. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Wyoming and northern Black Hills where 4 to 6 inches of snow is possible by 12z Tuesday. Heaviest snowfall will be limited to areas above 5500 feet, with locally higher amounts possible. Lesser amounts (~an inch or less) for lower elevations. Snow will end early Tuesday morning with light rain lingering across south- central SD into the late morning/early afternoon.

Upper trough forecast to push through the Central Plains Wednesday with light rain possible across south-central SD. Otherwise, generally dry weather expected through the week with seasonable temperatures. Brisk northwest flow next Saturday as clipper drops out of Canada with wind gusts > 40 mph possible and precipitation northeast of the area.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 430 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Strong gusty northwest winds (40-50kt gusts) will continue this evening, but then slowly wane after 03/06z. Areas MVFR/IFR conditions due to precipitation (rain on the western SD plains, rain/snow on the northeastern WY plains) will continue this evening, but then wane from northwest to southeast overnight. Local LIFR conditions due to snow/stratus will occur in/near the northern Black Hills tonight. Conditions across northeastern WY/far western SD will trend VFR Tuesday morning and then east of the Black Hills later Tuesday afternoon.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ Tuesday for SDZ001-002- 012>014-032-043-044-046-047-049-076>078. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for SDZ024. Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for SDZ026-027-030-031-041- 042-072>075. WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for WYZ057.