textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwest winds will slowly diminish this evening, with a chilly night in store across the area.

- Warm front lifting through the CWA Tuesday will bring the next chance of light rain/light snow.

- Much above seasonal norms expected for the Wednesday through Friday time frame.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 119 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Upper level analysis shows 500hpa longwave trough running from NW Minnesota south into central Texas. Water vapor imagery shows drying taking place across eastern MT into the western Dakotas, and this is verified by clearing cloud shield across the CWA in the latest visible satellite imagery. At the surface, vigorous low pressure is located across northern MO. High pressure is building into the western Dakotas out of the southern Canadian provinces. On radar, much of the snow has ended across the area, with the exception of a small area across the southern Black Hills. This appears to be in response to an area of 850-700 hpa frontogenesis coupled with some localized surface convergence going on. With that area also being clear most of the day, steepening 700hpa lapse rates are also playing a role in the snow development as well.

As the surface high conts to build into the region, gusty northwest winds will diminish through evening becoming light/variable across the western CWA, but still northwest across southcentral SD. The clearing skies and fresh snowpack will allow temps to fall to around zero for many locations. Suspect that as winds go nearly calm and with the fresh snowpack, some locations will go sub-zero by morning. Monday will be a neutral day, with nothing really going on temp advection wise. We may see a few flurries get wrung out across the favored locations in the higher Black Hills, but shouldn't add to any totals.

The next round of pcpn shows up on Tuesday when a warm front lifts through the CWA. 700Hpa theta-e forcing is pretty impressive as it passes through, and 850hpa temps start off sub-zero C but warm quickly as the front passes through. Also noticed that 700hpa winds increase behind the front to 50+ kts, leading to a fairly breezy day on Tuesday. May need some wind headlines for Tuesday afternoon, but will let that resolve itself once we get closer.

Otherwise, advertised warm-up for the Wed-Fri timeframe is still in store, with 850hpa temps climbing to near +20 C. Might be dealing with some fire weather concerns toward the end of the week with temps climbing well above seasonal norms.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 444 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

LCL MVFR/IFR conditions in -SN will continue over portions of the southern Black Hills until ~01z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.