textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than normal temperatures through Tuesday

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for the rest of today. Elevated conditions possible tomorrow and Tuesday.

- Wildfire smoke is expected to linger indefinitely, with thicker smoke at times.

- Dry weather continues for most areas, the exception will be isolated thunderstorms in central SD later today and tonight.

- Becoming unsettled and cooler next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

It has been a day of waiting and seeing if thunderstorms initiate. As of 1PM, one cell was been able to develop in Butte County north of the Black Hills. Looking ahead, still can't completely rule out more isolated storm development near the northern Black Hills. There are just enough ingredients available but with how dry the area is and how warm the atmosphere is, any vertical motion that happens has a lot to overcome.

For tonight, central SD could see thunderstorms drift in from the north. Some of those storms could be strong to severe, the SPC has placed a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for these forecasted storms.

Monday and Tuesday look similar, with highs mostly in the upper 80s to 90s. Zonal flow will keep the daily chances for afternoon storms in place over the CWA. SPC has placed a marginal (level 1 of 5) over the SD counties for both Monday and Tuesday.

The SPC has also placed a risk of severe weather on Wednesday centered over SW SD. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will most likely develop in the afternoon along an axis of moderate instability from western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. The storms will be supported by a mid- level shortwave trough moving across the north-central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening.

Unsettled pattern under zonal flow will give the area cooler temps and daily chances for rain and storms for the second half of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 513 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds will develop over northeast Wyoming between 10/18z and 11/00z, with gusts up to 25kts. Smoke will continue to linger over northeastern Wyoming through the TAF period, however, visibility impacts should remain minimal.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1150 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Widespread elevated conditions will continue through today, with critical conditions across portions of northeast WY due to breezy westerly winds and low RH.

A small, quick moving low pressure center could initiate thunderstorms later this afternoon in and near the Black Hills. Those storms would then drift east. Concerns for these storms, if they are able to develop, will be strong, erratic wind gusts and frequent lightning.

A cooling trend can be expected later this week with unsettled conditions.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315-317.