textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Heavy snow and wind possible this Saturday into Sunday

-Much colder Sunday into Monday with sub zero temps possible, especially in NW SD

-Warm air returns next week

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Thursday) Issued at 1028 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Active northern stream flow can be expected this weekend. Frontal boundary has shifted south and will stall across the far SW. Weak impulses will ride the boundary and support periods of light snow/rain across mainly the NE third to half through Friday night. Not expecting much accums other than a few tenths to maybe an inch, mainly on the grass. The front will oscillate with each impulse with warm air and breezy conds shifting back northeast into the far SW FA through Sat, with some places reaching the low 60s there. Much colder to the northeast over far NW SD where 30s will be common. Strong upper trough and associated jet will shift SE across the NW CONUS Sat. Strong FGEN response expected with this system starting Sat across far NW SD. The cold front will shift south Sat afternoon with modified arctic air advecting into the region. Lift will increase across the region Sat night with a strong FGEN band expected to develop. Models are still wavering on where this will occur given difference in frontal timing and location. Given persistent signals for snow and wind across NW SD, have issued a winter storm watch there. Further SW over the northern BH and foothills, the potential for upslope enhancement may allow for decent snow totals there, esp given strong saturated NNE winds. In addition, strong northerly winds would support blowing and drifting snow, potentially making travel difficult, even if sub-warning level snows fall. The heaviest snow will be Sat night, with snow quickly ending Sunday morning. Winds will persist through the day with lingering blowing snow. Much colder Sun night with lows in the single digits above/below zero, coldest where fresh snow falls. Upper ridge will then shift back NE next week, with a warming and drying trend.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued At 543 AM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

MVFR/LCL IFR conditions will be possible in light snow across portions of NE WY and western SD...especially over NW SD this afternoon and tonight. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for SDZ001-002-078. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for SDZ012>014-032-072-073. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for SDZ024-025. WY...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for WYZ060. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for WYZ057.