textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches in the northern Black Hills tonight into Saturday. A dusting of snow is possible on the plains.

- Breezy northwest winds continue Saturday, especially across the western South Dakota Plains.

- Return to mild and dry conditions Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 127 PM MST Fri Jan 9 2026

20Z upper level analysis has upper trof axis moving through the Northern Plains at the moment, with high amplitude ridge across the West Coast. Skies are mostly sunny, with high clouds moving into the Northern Plains from the northwest. At the surface, weak low pressure is located over southern Manitoba, with a weak surface trof extending back into central South Dakota. High pressure is present across most of the western CONUS. Temperatures across the forecast area at 1pm are in the upper 20s and 30s, with very breezy northwest winds.

Fast northwest upper flow will continue across the area tonight into Saturday. Another weak shortwave will cross the area overnight into Saturday bringing another dusting of snow to the South Dakota plains. Light accumulating snow will be likely across the northern and central Black Hills overnight. Model trends have shifted best moisture a little further east, so have reduced accumulations over the Black Hills to just 1 to 3 inches. Accumulations across the SD plains look to remain around 1/2 inch at best. Northwest winds will continue to be very breezy, with high temperatures struggling to rise into the 30s most locations. Areas further to the southwest and across northeast Wyoming could see some lower 40s on Saturday.

West Coast upper ridge will broaden and shift east into the Northern Plains Sunday into much of next week, bringing dry conditions back to the area, along with above average temperatures. Expect widespread 40s and 50s through Thursday. A few locations just south and east of the Black Hills could see some lower 60s on Monday.

Upper level pattern becomes more amplified late next week, with the western ridge retrograding and more northerly flow returning to the Northern Plains. This will bring cooler temperatures back to the area, along with some chances for snow.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued At 434 PM MST Fri Jan 9 2026

A few snow showers will result in ISOLD MVFR conditions overnight. Snow showers will increase in coverage after 12Z across the South Dakota Plains, resulting in SCT MVFR conditions. Gusty west-northwest surface winds will increase after 12Z, with gusts of 25 to 30kt expected across much of the area, with gusts of up to 40kt possible over northwestern SD. Snow showers will tapper off after 23Z on Saturday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.