textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy northwest winds expected across northwestern SD this afternoon with gusts of up to 45 mph possible.

- Strong winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday, gusts of 60+ mph are possible.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions possible Wednesday

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Monday) Issued at 354 AM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

Most recent upper air analysis depicts near zonal flow over the Northern Plains with weak shortwave crossing the Dakotas. Water vapor and nighttime microphysics shows a band of high clouds associated with this weak system crossing the CWA. A few weak returns are showing up on the most recent KUDX imagery, but with RHs at the sfc ranging from 30-50%, it's doubtful anything is actually reaching the ground. Another mild and dry day is on tap with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Weak 3-hr pressure rises of 1-3 mb will support breezy winds across northwestern SD this afternoon. A few spots may gust to 45 mph but not enough coverage in these gusts to warrant issuance of a wind advisory at this time.

Potent shortwave crosses the northern Rockies during the day Wednesday and ejects into the Northern Plains Wednesday night. At the sfc, double barrel low pressure system develops over MT/ND with a pair of cold fronts pushing through the CWA Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong southwest winds will develop ahead of this system on Wednesday with gusts of up to 60 mph possible in northeastern WY and southwestern SD. Have issued a High Wind Watch for southern Campbell, Weston, and western Fall River Counties for Wednesday. Near critical to critical fire wx conditions are also possible Wednesday, will elaborate further in the Fire Wx discussion.

Initial cold front roars through the region late Wednesday afternoon with strong 3-hr pressure rises of 5-7 mb. This will bring the first round of strong westerly winds across northwestern SD and portions of northeastern WY. The next cold front pushes through the region later Wednesday night into early Thursday with similarly strong pressure rises. The strong winds will cover most of western SD, including the Black Hills. BUFKIT soundings have been consistent in showing high wind warning level gusts mixing down to the sfc. Have issued a High Wind Watch for northwestern SD effective Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Additional wind headlines may be needed for overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning for the western SD plains. Some light precip is possible with these fronts, first as rain showers and then transitioning to snow as colder air pushes into the region, precip should taper off by Thursday morning. Snow amounts don't look to be too much, generally less than an inch.

Active, near zonal flow will persist across the Northern Plains through the weekend and bring occasional chances for light precip. After a chilly day on Thursday, temps will rebound for Friday before the next front moves through the region Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 354 AM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds across the western South Dakota plains will become breezy in the afternoon, with gusts to 35 kt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 354 AM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

Near critical to critical fire wx conditions possible on Wednesday, especially across portions of northeastern WY and southwestern into south central SD. Strong southwesterly winds expected to develop across northeastern WY on Wednesday morning with the strong winds expanding to western SD Wednesday afternoon. Gusts of up to 60 mph are possible in some areas of northeastern WY and southwestern SD. While minimum RHs will range from 30-50%, the strong winds and unseasonably warm temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s, combined with cured fuels will result in widespread near critical to critical fire wx conditions.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for SDZ001-002-012-013-025-072-073-078. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for SDZ041. WY...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for WYZ060. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ059. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ055-058.