textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and dry through the weekend - Elevated/near-critical fire weather conditions Saturday/Sunday - Slightly unsettled flow next week with periodic chances for precipitation, but low confidence for the details

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Friday) Issued at 1116 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

06z surface analysis had ridge over the Midwest into the southern Plains. Developing warm front was located from central MT into eastern CO. Nighttime microphysics RGB depicted spotty fog in the low spots of far northwestern SD, so added to forecast earlier in the evening. Water vapour loop had upper ridge from TX into the northern Plains.

Developing warm front pushes through CWA tonight/Saturday with increasing boundary layer mixing behind it leading to gusty northwest winds on the western SD plains Saturday. HREF probability of wind gusts >45mph <20% over northwestern SD, so will forgo wind headlines, although suspect there will be a smattering of 45mph wind gusts just northeast of the Black Hills. Temperatures will be quite warm with highs near guidance/20-30F above normal, warmest just east of the Black Hills where downslope flow impacts highest.

Sunday, upper ridge flattens as lower tropospheric thermal ridge remains in place. Combined with westerly component to boundary layer flow, another warm/dry day expected with a 40-70% chance MaxT >=70F just east of the Black Hills.

Next week, pattern change expected as upper ridge breaks down and pseudo split flow develops. A series of disturbances will move across the region, but moisture will be of Pacific origin. Not expecting much QPF (<30% chance of >0.1" QPF on the plains), but better chances for the higher Black Hills where some upslope component is present. Temperatures will be marginal for impactful snowfall on the plains, but somewhat more favorable for the higher Black Hills. Temperatures will still be slightly above normal, but spreads are 20F+ starting Monday, so confidence low for details.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 1024 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Patchy fog is possible early Saturday morning across NW SD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1116 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Gusty northwest winds expected Saturday, particularly across the SD/WY plains, with gusts 35-45mph, especially just northeast of the Black Hills. These winds coupled with warm temperatures and RH in the 20s (lowest NE WY, southern BHs, foothills, and SW SD plains) will result in elevated to transient near-critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon.

Lighter winds expected Sunday and Monday, although RH will continue to be in the 20s-30s each day, resulting in continued elevated fire weather conditions. A cold front will push through late Monday bringing cooler air and precipitation chances through mid-week. Stronger winds (gusts >35 mph) are not expected with this frontal passage.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.