textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog over northwestern into south central SD this morning

- Gusty northwest winds will develop this afternoon, the strongest winds will be over northwest SD with gusts of 40 to 45 mph.

- Light accumulating snow over the Northern Black Hills on Tuesday

- Above average temperatures and mostly dry weather through the end of the week

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Sunday) Issued at 256 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Nighttime microphysics imagery depicts swath of fog/low clouds extending from ND into eastern SD. The fog is slowly creeping into our half of SD with the KLEM station near the SD/ND border reporting low clouds and decreasing visibilities over the past couple of hours. Patchy fog should continue to develop over northwestern into south central SD through this morning, though it's appearing less likely that the fog will make it as far as the Black Hills with most recent forecast soundings showing a very shallow moist layer near the sfc. Any fog that develops will erode by late this morning as upper level shortwave crosses the region.

Winds will shift to the northwest late this morning as the attendant sfc front pushes across the CWA. Weak pressure rises behind the trof will support breezy winds with BUFKIT momentum transfer showing the potential for gusts of 40-45kt to mix to the sfc across northwestern SD. NBM probs show a 40-70% chance for wind gusts to exceed 45 mph across our usual windy spots along the Sturgis/Piedmont foothills and adjacent plains with hi-res deterministic models showing gusts of 40-45 mph. Given the low confidence in if gusts will reach advisory level, have opted to hold off on issuing any headlines. In terms of precip - not expecting too much out of this system as the bulk of the lift and moisture will be displaced to our east. However, upslope flow could support some light snow showers over the northern Black Hills this afternoon with minimal accumulations expected.

Another shortwave will cross the region Tuesday, this time the moisture and weak large scale forcing will be present over the CWA. This will support light precip over northeastern WY into western SD through the day and into the evening on Tuesday. Temperatures over the plains will be too warm for snow (40-50F) but thermal profiles over the Black Hills should support snow. Upslope enhancement will support 1 to 3" of accumulation across the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills.

Upper level ridge over the western US will continue to influence weather over our neck of the woods into this weekend. High temperatures across much of the CWA will be 10-20F above average with slightly cooler conditions towards central SD. Thursday's looking to be particularly warm with highs climbing into the 60s over the western SD plains.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 410 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Patchy fog and low clouds are expected to linger across the NW SD plains until 16Z, resulting in localized MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys. Otherwise, VFR conds are expected throughout the TAF period with gusty northwest winds developing Monday afternoon.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.