textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures continue for the rest of the week and into the weekend.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will continue daily.

- Low end chances for isolated thunderstorms over the Black Hills beginning Thursday, better chances for scattered thunderstorms over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A large upper level area of high pressure continues to dominate the weather as this high pressure continues to center over the Central Plains, with the surface high pressure situated over Iowa. Underneath this area of high pressure, skies are clear and temperatures will continue to climb to over 100F. This trend will continue into Wednesday before we begin to see a breakdown of the high pressure and eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota become influenced by the western periphery of this system where monsoonal moisture is being pulled up from the Desert southwest all the way up into western Montana.

As this trend continues into Thursday we could see enough mid level moisture associated with the monsoon creep into our area and initiate some isolated (1 or 2 storms) over the terrain in the Black Hills. These storms will pose a dry lightning and strong downburst wind threat and produced little to no rainfall. These type of storms will also keep the fire threat high throughout the rest of the week.

Looking ahead into the weekend models keep us under the influence of a thermal ridge that will once again keep much of our region in the triple digit heat. This trend will need to be monitored for the extension of Heat Highlights.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1137 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1219 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Dry, hot and breezy conditions will continue through Wednesday. Expect critical fire weather conditions from the northeastern Wyoming to the far western South Dakota plains, today where the current Red Flag Warning remains in effect. Breezy south to southeast winds with gusts up 35 will couple with 10-15 percent relative humidity. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be in place across the area on Wednesday as the strong upper level ridge begins to break down on Wednesday. At this time some the strongest winds do not correlate with the low relative humidity values therefore, the Red Flag Warning will expire Tuesday night and not be continued for Wednesday. We will continue to monitor the potential for critical conditions for the second half of the week. If monsoon moisture is available for the end of the week, dry lightning may become a concern depending on low level moisture availability.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Thursday for SDZ001-002- 012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for SDZ322>332. WY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ054>056-058>060. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314>317.