textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions last into Saturday.

- Pattern change late this weekend, resulting in much cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Thursday) Issued at 101 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The rest of today will be sunny and warm with afternoon temps in the 80s to low 90s. (Highs like this are 20 to 30 degrees above normal for this time of year) Winds will be gusty out of the southwest to south at around 10 to 20 mph with gusts near 30 to 35 mph.

Saturday will continue the sunny skies and warm, well above normal high temps. Expected highs are in the 80s to low 90s again with gusty southwest winds. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely due to low RH and gusty winds, more information can be found in the FIRE WEATHER section below.

After Saturday, a change in the weather pattern will happen. Upper level winds will swing to the west/southwest as a trough of low pressure deepens over the Pacific northwest. And that low is projected to track southward along the coast before kicking eastward toward the the central US. That pattern change will bring much cooler weather to the area, high temps will drop to the 50s and 60s and low temps will drop to the 30s and 40s.

This change will also bring back the rain chances. The first round will begin to move into the far western CWA zones late Saturday with PoPS lingering into Monday night for the entire CWA.

Beyond Monday, forecast confidence diminishes. The previously mentioned trend is the same in the weather model projections; an upper level low deepens southward along the west coast while an upper level high pressure builds along the southern coast, then around mid-week, the low will track eastward through the central states. But the details in this story are what differs. The GEFS has a stronger low, when compared to the EURO. And the EURO ENS has a stronger high pressure, when compared to the GEFS. These differences mean differences in timing and strength of each round of rain as they pass through the area. There are even some scenarios that keep the rain south of the CWA, leaving us dry. So stay plugged into the forecast throughout the week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1109 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Gusty southwest winds will persist through the period for northeast Wyoming and portions of southwest and south-central South Dakota, with gusts reaching 25-35kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 101 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are being reported over northeastern Wyoming into western South Dakota as of this writing around midday. This afternoon, minimum RH values down to 10-20% are likely with southwest to south winds around 10 to 20 mph and gusts upwards of 30 to 35 mph. Because of these conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the northeastern WY plains, far southwestern SD, and the foothills.

Saturday will bring near-critical fire weather conditions again with afternoon RH's drop to 15-20% and gusty southwest winds. As of now, the wind gusts will be there but the question is will RH values dip to the level needed for a Red Flag Warning. Conditions will be monitored and if needed, the Red Flag Warning will be extended for parts of the CWA.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ320>327-329- 332. WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314>318.