textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms return to the area today. Severe weather is not expected at this time but stronger storm cells could produce gusty winds and small hail.

- Much warmer and near-critical to critical fire weather pattern returns next week, especially Monday and Wednesday through Friday. The elevated fire weather conditions will be due to hot temperatures, low humidities, and breezy conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 933 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Couple shortwaves will bring isolated to scattered showers to the area the next 24 hours. The first wave is progressing across ND. The tail end of this wave will support scattered showers overnight across NW SD into central SD. The next wave is traversing the Pac NW and will shift into the region Sat. The best overlap of moisture, lift, and instability will be across northeast WY into far SW SD Sat afternoon, with subsidence expected to the NE across NW into central SD. Hence, there will be a sharp cut off in precip, with likely pops across the far SW FA to dry conds across far NW SD. Gusty winds and pea hail can be expected with any TS tomorrow. Things dry out Sat night with strong radiational cooling allowing for sub-freezing temps across far NW SD and northeast WY and the Black Hills. Warm and dry next week, with 80s and 90s expected by Monday on the Plains.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Next Week) Issued at 158 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

The forecast for western SD and NE WY could be broken up into 3 parts: Thunderstorms tomorrow (Saturday), cold overnight temps Saturday night into Sunday morning, and the very warm temps next week.

Starting with tonight, northwest flow over the area have brought showers to parts of NE WY, the Black Hills, and the area southeast of the Black Hills. Occasionally lightning has been detected out of these showers but the storm cells don't last long. Isolated showers could last through tonight.

Tomorrow, showers and storms return to the area. Another wave moves along the northwest flow through the area. Current track of the wave points to a very similar setup to what has been seen the last couple of days with the southwestern 1/2 of the region seeing the best potential for showers/storms.

Saturday night into Sunday morning could be on the chilly side for folks in NE WY and the Black Hills. Overnight lows look to dip into the low to mid 30s. The SD plains look to dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Looking to next week, upper ridge slides over the Rockies and into the northern and central plains. This will give much warmer temperatures and dry conditions Monday through most of next week. Main forecast concern in this time frame will be increased fire weather conditions given the warmer temperatures and dry air.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued At 601 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today across northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills, and southwestern South Dakota, and will be the primary concern for aviation. KRAP will reside right along the eastern edge of the corridor of best precip potential, and we continue to hold off from introducing a PROB30 there as confidence in activity reaching the terminal is low. VFR conditions are likely throughout the TAF period. Further south and west, brief drops to MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible under heavier showers and storms. KGCC has been upgraded to predominant -SHRA starting at 16z/10am as high-res CAMs are looking pretty good on shower coverage across that region, with the best chance of thunder from 17-23z/11am-5pm. Instability will be somewhat lacking and model forecast soundings don't support severe weather, but brief small hail and perhaps a few wind gusts as high as 35kts can't be ruled out. Gradual clearing and VFR conditions return tonight and will continue Sunday with no aviation concerns to round out the rest of the weekend.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.