textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Hot Sunday and Monday with a brief cool down mid week before another round of really hot weather next weekend

-Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances at times as the region remains on the ridge periphery next week

-Elevated fire weather conditions at times, mainly across northeast WY and far southwest SD

UPDATE

Issued at 901 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Shortwave ridging expected Sunday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This will support hot conds, with dry weather. Although some hires models mix out the cap in far NW SD in the later afternoon with isolated showers possible there. Did not add pops given such low chances. Upper trough will move across the Northern Plains Sunday night, dropping a cool front into the area. This could support a few showers and storms across far NW SD. This boundary will stall over southern SD Monday and be the focus for isold to sct ts in the afternoon. Another wave will kick out of WY in the evening and support TS with gusty winds there into NW SD overnight. The FA will remain on the northeast edge of the ridge through the week with impulses advecting along the northern periphery, supporting TS at times, esp across NW SD. Expect warmer temps toward the end of the week with very hot conds by next weekend as the ridge shifts east some, potentially supporting temps well into the 100s by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Latest satellite and radar imagery (as of 2PM) shows clear to mostly clear skies around the plains. But the Black Hills had 1 storm cell develop that produced 2 inch hail stones. It faded out as quickly as it developed.

For the rest of this afternoon through tonight, any thunderstorms that are able to get going will fade out quickly again. Overnight will be dry with lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

Tomorrow, Sunday, is looking much warmer than today. Skies will be clear to mostly clear and dry again but afternoon temps jump into the 90s to near 100F. With the hot air, relative humidity will dip to around 10 to 25%, lowest percentages will be in northeast Wyoming and southwest South Dakota. Wind speeds in the afternoon will be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph. With numbers like that so close to Red Flag Warning criteria, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for parts of the far southwest CWA.

To start the next week, Monday and Tuesday bring back the storm chances. While the overall pattern has an upper level high pressure building over the desert southwest, a ridge riding low could bring storm chances to the area. Both Monday and Tuesday have chances for storms in the afternoon. Model data points to there being a chance for those storms to be strong to severe, stay tuned for updates.

A quick glance at the rest of the week, the near daily chances for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms continue. Temperatures will be at or above normal with highs in the 80s to 90s, near 100 degrees are possible again late in the week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 1039 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.