textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow ending tonight with minimal additional accumulations.

- Cold temperatures through the weekend.

- Warmer (above average) temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Thursday) Issued at 922 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

Water vapor analysis depicts a strong wave over northeastern Nebraska/northwestern Iowa, a closed low over southwest Ontario, another low in the Desert Southwest, another low in northwest Alberta, and weak high pressure across southern Montana. At the surface, high pressure is building in from southern Saskatchewan. Radar is showing weak returns across a good portion of the area, and surface observations still have light snow over the upslope areas of the western and northern Black Hills and along the South Dakota/Nebraska border.

For the rest of tonight, areas of snow will diminish with minimal additional accumulation. Winds will decrease, but clouds look to linger through daybreak. Cold, arctic air remains in place overnight into Friday morning, dropping temperatures into the single digits above and below zero.

For Friday, the upper low over the Desert Southwest will open up and move across the Rockies into Colorado as an upper wave. At the same time the low over Alberta will drop into Saskatchewan and weaken as well. This will help push the arctic air north of the forecast area, allowing temperatures to warm into the 20s. Surface high pressure moves slightly east across the central and eastern Dakotas, with a stationary boundary forming in the lee of the Rockies from central/eastern Montana down into the Front Range of Colorado. This will lead to light winds across most of the forecast area Friday and Friday night.

On Saturday and Saturday night, the northern stream low will move east along the Canadian border, pushing the upper trough and surface frontal boundary through the forecast area. The main impact from these features will be on temperatures, as the colder air will remain in place longer, and into the day on Sunday.

The upper ridge builds west of the area Sunday, shifting into the forecast area for Monday and Tuesday. Model ensembles are fairly consistent with 850mb temperatures around +10C, leading to surface highs in the 50s to low 60s. An tightening surface pressure gradient and gusty westerly winds will again lead to an increased chance of near critical fire weather conditions.

Models then show a weak shortwave trough and Pacific cold front moving through late Tuesday. With limited moisture and cold air, only expect a little bit of light rain/snow and slightly cooler, but still near average, temperatures.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 922 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

Conditions will improve overnight as snowfall ends. However, some MVFR/IFR CIGS may linger through early Friday morning, especially in the southern Black Hills and adjacent plains. Flurries are also possible from these CIGS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected Friday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.