textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Relatively mild temperatures Monday through Friday, then chillier next weekend
- Elevated fire wx conditions possible Monday and again Thursday and Friday.
- Light rain/snow late Tuesday into Wednesday and again by the weekend
DISCUSSION
(This Afternoon Through Saturday) Issued at 1146 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026
Current upper air analysis depicts upper ridge axis over the Rockies with trofing over the eastern US. The Northern Plains sits under northwest flow with some upper level moisture causing high cloud cover over the CWA. Temps range from the teens to 20s. Another chilly afternoon and night in store as Arctic air stays over the region.
Upper ridge pushes into the region on Monday with southwest sfc flow advecting warm air into the CWA. Temps over the plains will climb into the 50s, with downsloping contributing to temps near the Black Hills climbing to the low 60s. RHs will drop into the 20s which may cause some elevated fire wx concerns.
Shortwave and attendant cold front will sweep through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. There should be enough moisture and lift for some light precip, mainly falling as snow over the higher elevations of the Black Hills and rain over the western SD plains. Not expecting much in terms of snow accumulations, perhaps an inch or two over the Black Hills. Forecast highs will be a challenge Tuesday and Wednesday as deterministic models have little consensus on timing/strength of the front as it moves through the region.
After a slight cool down Wednesday, temperatures rebound for Thursday and Friday as broad upper ridge builds into the western US. The warm temperatures, dry airmass, and breezy west-northwest winds will lend to elevated fire wx concerns Thursday and Friday.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance diverges on the exact evolution of the upper level pattern towards the end of the upcoming week. Though they all seem to favor a quasi-zonal flow pattern. Another front will cross the region which will bring slight chances for precip back to the region. Baroclinic zone will cut across the CWA, which will complicate temperature forecasts for the weekend.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1020 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.