textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions last into Saturday.

- Pattern change late this weekend, resulting in much cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation.

UPDATE

Issued at 941 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Going forecast in good shape. One last day of unseasonably warm weather for Saturday given downslope flow/lower tropospheric forecast soundings. Clouds will increase later in the day as upper trough deepens over the northwest CONUS, spilling mid/high clouds into the CWA. Moisture will be scant as shortwave/cold front moves through Saturday night, but enough for lowish PoPs in the west. Periodic chances of light precipitation continues much of next week as frontal boundary oscillates in/near the CWA. Confidence in details on the lower side given ensemble temperatures spreads of 10-15F. Best PoPs looks to be Wednesday as upper trough/low moves from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Thursday) Issued at 101 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The rest of today will be sunny and warm with afternoon temps in the 80s to low 90s. (Highs like this are 20 to 30 degrees above normal for this time of year) Winds will be gusty out of the southwest to south at around 10 to 20 mph with gusts near 30 to 35 mph.

Saturday will continue the sunny skies and warm, well above normal high temps. Expected highs are in the 80s to low 90s again with gusty southwest winds. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely due to low RH and gusty winds, more information can be found in the FIRE WEATHER section below.

After Saturday, a change in the weather pattern will happen. Upper level winds will swing to the west/southwest as a trough of low pressure deepens over the Pacific northwest. And that low is projected to track southward along the coast before kicking eastward toward the the central US. That pattern change will bring much cooler weather to the area, high temps will drop to the 50s and 60s and low temps will drop to the 30s and 40s.

This change will also bring back the rain chances. The first round will begin to move into the far western CWA zones late Saturday with PoPS lingering into Monday night for the entire CWA.

Beyond Monday, forecast confidence diminishes. The previously mentioned trend is the same in the weather model projections; an upper level low deepens southward along the west coast while an upper level high pressure builds along the southern coast, then around mid-week, the low will track eastward through the central states. But the details in this story are what differs. The GEFS has a stronger low, when compared to the EURO. And the EURO ENS has a stronger high pressure, when compared to the GEFS. These differences mean differences in timing and strength of each round of rain as they pass through the area. There are even some scenarios that keep the rain south of the CWA, leaving us dry. So stay plugged into the forecast throughout the week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued At 506 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. An upper trough will drift closer to the region in the period. This will bring an increase in mid and high clouds. Isolated showers and TS are possible late this afternoon and evening across the western third, with shower chances spreading into NW SD early Sunday morning. Winds will shift NNW behind a cold front tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 936 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday as the relative humidity dips to 15-20% with breezy southwest winds at times. The latest HREF (which did very well for Friday afternoon) has the joint probability (RH<=15%, wind>=25mph) of Red Flag Warning criteria <20%, so will not hoist Fire Weather Headlines for Saturday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.