textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow will taper off today with additional accumulations of up to 2 inches over the northern Black Hills and light accumulations over the plains

- Very cold tonight over northwestern into south central SD where wind chills could drop to 10 to 20 below.

- Another round of light precip moves through the area Saturday with snow changing over to rain as warm air moves into the region.

- Above average temperatures and mostly dry weather returns Sunday into early next week

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 1258 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Current upper air analysis depicts upper level ridge axis stretching from northern WA into the Great Basin region. Meanwhile, broad troughing sits over the eastern half of North America. The Northern Plains sits under northwest flow with a sfc boundary/front still stalled out over northeastern WY/western SD. Embedded waves within the upper level flow have triggered multiple rounds of light snow over the region today with generally light accumulations over the plains and a few inches up in the northern Black Hills. Light snow showers and patchy fog will continue through today. The northern Black Hills could pick up an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow while the western SD plains and the rest of the Black Hills will see minor accumulations through this evening.

High pressure pushes into the region from the east, shoving the sfc front further west as it does so and bringing a shot of Arctic air into western SD. Highs will range from the low teens to 20s across much of western SD and in the 30s to 40s across northeastern WY. Lows tonight will drop below zero across our eastern counties with wind chills as cold as 20 below. Lows across northeastern WY into the Black Hills and southwestern SD will be slightly warmer, in the teens to mid 20s.

Quick moving upper shortwave and Pacific front will sweep through the area Saturday. So far expecting a band of light precip to cross the region Saturday morning into the afternoon. Precip will start off as snow Saturday morning before changing over to rain as warm air moves in behind the front. Forecast soundings indicate that a brief period of freezing rain is possible across northwestern SD late Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon though not anticipating any ice accumulations.

Upper ridge pushes into the region by Sunday with above average temperatures and mostly dry weather expected through Monday. Weak shortwave progged to slide through the region Tuesday with additional chances for light precip, mainly over the Black Hills and portions of western SD. Temperatures through the mid week expected to remain slightly above seasonal averages.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 1000 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

Low clouds, fog, and light snow will persist across western SD into the Black Hills overnight with MVFR to LIFR conditions. Expect conds to trend upward all places Friday afternoon. However, MVFR- IFR conds could linger on the western SD Plains, esp along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills per sustained easterly upslope flow.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ024. WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ057.