textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Tomorrow will be windy with gusts around 45 to 55 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued because of this. Strongest winds will be in the NW SD plains.

- A little cooler tomorrow and Thursday as highs dip back into the 70s. Warm again Friday and Saturday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions again tomorrow (Wednesday).

- Passing isolated showers and storms possible through Thursday. Better chances for storms this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A low pressure system spinning near the west side of the Hudson Bay is our main weather maker for the short term forecast. Its giving the CWA northwest flow with just enough upward vertical motion to get some showers and thunderstorms going in the upper great plains. So far, most of the activity has been contained to eastern SD while the western counties have been dry for the most part, save for a few cells that have been short-lived.

Looking ahead to tonight through tomorrow night, continued northwest flow will keep the chances for isolated showers and non- severe thunderstorms to track into the area from the north. These chances will be mainly centered around little shortwaves spinning around the main low that will keep spinning near Hudson Bay. Temps tonight will dip into the 50s to mid 60s and tomorrows highs will be mostly in the 70s. The exceptions are the far northwest SD counties and the far southern SD counties where temps will reach the upper 60s and near 80 respectively. NE WY looks to reach the low to mid 70s.

Tomorrows winds will be the main story though. Strong northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph with gusts nearing 45 to 55 are likely Wednesday afternoon. Strongest winds will be in the SD plains. There is some evidence that gusts to 60 mph are possible in the NW SD plains but not enough to warrant issuing a High Wind Warning at this time, so decided to go with a high-end Wind Advisory. Will update if needed.

Thursday will continue the chances for isolated showers and storms from the northwest with the cooler highs in the 70s. A big difference will be the calmer winds with expected northwest winds at around 10 to 20 mph with gusts nearing 30 mph.

Friday and the weekend will see the weather pattern change to a more westerly flow. This will bring back warmer temps and more widespread thunderstorm chances for the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1141 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Breezy west-northwest winds with gusts of up to 35KT will continue to increase this afternoon, then decrease in the evening. Isolated rain showers will be possible across NW SD today through Wednesday, along with increased portions of the SD plains overnight. Strong NW winds will develop early Wednesday morning and continue through the day. Gusts up to 45 kt are expected...with occasional higher gusts possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 135 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Mostly dry weather will linger in the area through this week.

Dry air continues across the northeastern WY and southwestern South Dakota plains. This will lead to relative humidities below 20 percent. The dry air will combine with northwest winds gusting around 20 to 45 mph to support critical to near-critical fire weather conditions the next couple of days.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for SDZ001-002-012- 013-025-072-073-078. Wind Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Wednesday for SDZ014-026-027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049- 074>077. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ322-326. WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315-317.