textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Active northwest flow through will persist through the week with rain and thunderstorm chances, best chances Thursday and Saturday.
- Cooler temperatures persist Wednesday before warming trend into the weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 933 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026
Lingering showers across far SW SD will dissipate this evening with dry conds and clearing skies expected. This will support strong radiational cooling as winds drop off.
Main change to the previous forecast was to raise pops Thur afternoon with the strong NW flow impulse. Fairly unstable profiles with ample Pac moisture will support a good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon over northeast WY into SW SD. Otherwise, tweaked highs/lows the next couple days with no other sig changes.
DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1240 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026
A strong mid-level low is centered over northeastern Ontario with an upper trough axis stretching westward through the Northern Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a vort max pushing through the forecast area with active northwesterly flow upstream. Surface high pressure is centered over eastern Manitoba with brisk northwest surface flow across the Northern Plains. Cold air aloft + steep low-level lapse rates have resulted in a cellular cu field with virga/sprinkles possible across NW SD. Light showers possible across the SW third of the forecast area as the wave pivots through the region. Any precipitation amounts will be minimal.
Cooler weather persists tomorrow with generally dry conditions as subsidence overspreads the area through the day. Thermal ridge axis will push eastward Thursday into the weekend with temperatures warming through the weekend.
Active northwest flow persists through the week with another compact shortwave trough to arrive Thursday with rain showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon. Generally dry conditions Friday ahead of another wave that will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the area Saturday.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1008 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026
VFR conditions through the TAF period.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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