textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy with light rain/snow for Tuesday and Wednesday

- Elevated fire weather conditions return for Thursday and Friday

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 100 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

Current upper air water vapor analysis depicts large-scale ridging over western CONUS, with the ridge axis stretching from Alberta/Saskatchewan southward through the Rockies, and troughing over the east coast, with the trough axis stretching from western Quebec down to FL with a Nor'easter off the coast of MA. WV shows high cloud cover moving over the region, with drier air closer to the surface. West-southwesterly flow is currently positioned along the ridge, extending from the PNW into western ND, with weaker northwesterly flow centered over the MO region. With the shift of the ridge further east, the high pressure and Arctic air mass has receded back into Canada, allowing warmer, above-average temperatures to return. Surface observations currently show temps in the 30s and 40s for much of the region, with a few 20s still lingering. Winds are strongest over south-central SD with southerly gusts up to 35 mph, while the rest of the region is mainly experiencing 10-20 mph gusts.

For tonight into Tuesday, the jet streak will progress along the ridge, setting up a northwesterly flow stretching from southern Alberta down to the southern Midwest and a shortwave will clip the region, brining a cold front through the northern edge of our CWA. Northwesterly winds will increase during the day as a result, with the strongest winds staying in SE WY. Western SD will see breezy conditions and a slight chance for morning precipitation across NE WY and parts of western SD, however, chances for measurable precip will be low (<25 percent chance of >0.01, NBM-CONUS).

Tuesday night into Wednesday will be our next chance for measurable precip, with chances for both rain and snow, as a stronger shortwave moves across the Northern Plains. Chances for snow will be mainly over the higher elevations of the Black Hills and during the night over the plains, while the rest of the region is expected to see light rain through Wednesday evening. While the exact amounts and locations of snowfall/rainfall are still uncertain, the overall system may bring >0.1 inch of QPF to NE WY and the northern/central Black Hills (~45 to 75 percent chance), while the rest of the region will likely see between a trace and 0.05 inches (~65 to 35 percent, respectively, NBM-CONUS).

Mild and dry weather will quickly return Thursday and Friday with breezy west-northwest winds, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions to finish off the week. Cold, below-average temperatures will return for the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 435 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

Some low VFR to MVFR conditions and light snow showers move into portions of northeastern WY early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for most of the forecast area through the TAF period. Gusty southwest winds will develop over northeast WY late tonight with gusts of up to 25kt.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.