textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front bisecting the forecast area today with cooler and more moist conditions north of I-90, and warmer and drier with critical fire weather conditions along and south of I-90.

- Gusty northwest winds behind the front tonight, especially across central and eastern portions of the forecast area east of the Black Hills corridor.

- Major pattern change and increasingly active weather for the rest of the week with a weaker system bringing rain and snow Tuesday night through Wednesday night, and a wetter system Thursday through Friday night with widespread snow accumulations.

UPDATE

Issued at 1029 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Cold front has pushed through the CWA with rising RHs and breezy north to northwest winds across much of the area. Regional radar loop shows line of precip moving across eastern MT/western ND. Recent CAMs indicate this precip won't quite make it into our CWA, though a few rain/snow showers can't be ruled out overnight with light accumulations across the northern Black Hills. The northerly winds will continue to strengthen through midnight as strong 5-7 mb pressure rises move into the CWA. Current thinking is that while some spots will see a brief period of advsy level (45+ mph) gusts tonight, timing and coverage aren't enough to warrant any wind headlines.

Forecast remains largely on track for the two upcoming systems with only minor adjustments to QPF/snow totals. Most recent HREF runs do show the potential for some banding across central SD on Wednesday morning which could result in locally higher snow totals with the first round. As for the Thursday-Friday night system, LREF 25th-75th%-ile QPF spreads remain large (0.3-0.5" across much of our CWA) as run-to-run and model-to-model consistency on the storm track remains poor.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A strong cold front bisects our CWA early this afternoon, with much cooler/more moist conditions generally north of I-90 with northerly winds, and a significantly warmer/drier airmass along and south of I- 90 with westerly winds supporting critical fire weather conditions (and an ongoing attendant RED FLAG WARNING). The front has been somewhat stationary today, but recently drifted into Rapid City supporting an immediate 10 degree temperature drop along with increasing RH values. The front will eventually/more progressively push south into Nebraska this evening, finally ending our stretch of critical fire weather for the foreseeable future. Gusty north- northwest winds remain expected behind the front tonight (possibly gusting to 45 MPH at least for a few hours) with light rain/snow showers also expected. QPF amounts should remain very light...a few hundredths of an inch. Forecast edits and updates today have been focused on adjusting temps/RH for the position of the cold front, and also broadbrushed PoPs out a bit for tonight/Tuesday morning. Still not out of the question that winds may approach Wind Advisory criteria in a few spots, but overall the potential still seems marginal and low confidence.

Tuesday kicks off a much more active weather pattern for the rest of the week into next weekend, with cooler temperatures, an increase in moisture, and at least two systems impacting our area. The weaker of the two systems...an open shortwave trough...crosses the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A mix of snow, sleet, and rain is possible with this feature, with a light coating to 3 inches of snow possible with the highest totals in the Black Hills as well as across the eastern and south-central Plains. A wetter system...a closed low...then follows for Thursday through Friday night, and this is now looking like the "main event" with perhaps a break afterward for the weekend. QPF has trended higher with this system, ranging from 0.25 inches along the Nebraska border to 0.50 inches along and north of I-90, and possibly a bit higher over the Black Hills. Rain Thursday will transition to a wintry mix Thursday night and then snow by Friday, with at least several inches of accumulation looking likely for most of the CWA. Would like to watch model trends a bit longer before getting too specific on possible snow totals as some uncertainly remains in exact storm track and QPF amounts.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 459 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Local MVFR/IFR CIGS will improve this morning with VFR conditions most areas this afternoon. However, a disturbance will spread -sn (perhaps mixed with -ra) from southwest to northeast into the forecast area after 01/00z resulting in a return to MVFR/IFR conditions by the end of the forecast period. Southeasterly winds will become gusty tonight, especially over northeastern WY where 35kt gusts are likely.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.