textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures continue through the weekend with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

- Isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday - mainly Black Hills and northeast Wyoming - with scattered thunderstorms this weekend across the entire area.

- Unsettled and cooler next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1243 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

High pressure continues to be centered over the Central Great Plains with water vapor imagery showing moisture streaming into the Desert Southwest up into the Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure is centered over southeast Montana with a warm front extending through southern North Dakota, a lee trof along the Bighorns, and a cold front extending into northwest Wyoming. Temperatures at 19Z are in the 90s, with a few spots around 80 in the higher Black Hills. Winds are generally south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

The cold front will slowly slide into the forecast area tonight as the surface low pushes into southwestern North Dakota and eventually into south-central North Dakota by Friday morning. The main impacts with the cold front will be limited. Winds behind the front will be northerly, high temperatures will be a degree or two cooler, and there will be a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Low level moisture begins to increase Thursday morning as the upper ridge begins to slowly break down. The increase in moisture combined with an increase in instability may allow for isolated thunderstorms behind the cold front on Thursday and Friday. There will be greater chances for storms this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward, monsoonal moisture streams into the area, some small vorticity maxes move through the flow, and modest ascent along the frontal boundary.

Models differ slightly on how fast the upper ridge collapses and the positioning of the surface fronts this weekend. However, the overall pattern will lead to a chance for scattered storms this weekend, with unsettled weather and cooler temperatures next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 514 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conds through the period. Isolated showers or TS are possible across the Black Hills and northeast WY Thur afternoon. Gusty winds are expected near any showers.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Thursday for SDZ001-002- 012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078. WY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ054>056-058>060.