textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- A round of showers and potential thunderstorms is expected this afternoon/evening and tomorrow.

- General northwest flow will keep unsettled weather in the area through Thursday.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through the Weekend) Issued at 241 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The forecast is still holding on to a quieter one. That being said, there are some concerns but nothing far outside of normal for the area.

An overall northwest flow in the upper levels will keep some low- end PoPs in the forecast through the next couple days. Then a ridge of high pressure late in the week would give clear and sunny skies Thursday night through Saturday. Low-end PoPs return to the area Saturday night as the ridge breaks down and northwest flow returns. Those precip chances will last into Sunday.

For the precip chances this afternoon and tomorrow, thunderstorms cant be ruled out. As of this writing, around noon Tuesday, skies are clearing out from the northwest. These clearer skies and the northwest flow will introduce some instability so showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning this afternoon and lasting into the evening. Showers are developing near NE WY to NW SD and track southeast. Severe weather is not expected at this time but any storms that are able to develop will be monitored closely.

The showers and storm potential return tomorrow. A weak shortwave will swing over the area from the north. This shortwave would bring some lift and is projected to get some showers going for those mainly around the Black Hills and in NW SD, although parts of central SD cant be ruled out. And with just enough instability forecasted, thunderstorm chances are possible again.

Temperatures are still expected to rise this week. Overnight lows will be stuck in the upper 20s to low 30s through Thursday night. Wednesday and Thursday are looking warmer than today with highs in the 50s to near 60. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be warmer still with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

The EFI tables are not highlighting highly elevated winds this week. That being said, Wednesday and Thursday will see some stronger wind speeds than what we are seeing today. Winds will swing to the northwest and pick up speeds to around 10 to 20 mph, gusts upwards of 30 mph. Wind speeds like this arent bad for what we are used to but its a change from today. Nothing extreme, just different.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1111 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Upper level trough will support rain and snow today across the FA, with the best chance for precip and lower flight conds south of I90 in SD. Expect sct showers and an isolated tstorm or two this afternoon with mainly VFR conds. Have opted to leave mention of TS out of RAP and GCC TAFs due to low confidence in if storms will develop. VFR conds expected most places tonight, although patchy fog will be possible.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.