textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather through much of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1037 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

No major forecast changes needed with this evening's update as high pressure remains in control and few impacts are expected in the short-term. Cooler high temperatures (generally holding in the 60s degF) are expected Sunday compared to the significantly warmer values we saw today, with dry and mostly clear conditions continuing to support outstanding weather for most outdoor activities.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 129 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Water vapor and upper air models show upper ridge dominating the central CONUS this afternoon, with an upper low off the southwest coast. Satellite shows a bit of cirrus clouds in northwestern SD, but otherwise clear skies over the forecast area. Winds are light out of the southwest, with temperatures this afternoon in the 70s.

Aforementioned upper low currently off the coast of CA is expected to evolve into a wave and and move northeast early to middle of next week. Currently wave looks to move by to our south, just bringing some breezy winds and clouds into the forecast area. Expect temperatures to rollercoaster Sunday through Thursday, but still stay at or above normal for this time of year and stay dry. We may see elevated fire weather conditions at times, but forecast afternoon RH's only dip into the 20-40 percent range. Next chance for any meaningful precipitation comes late next week. Another upper low develops off of the west coast middle of next week, shifting over the four corners region towards the weekend, and eventually sliding over the northern/central plains. Still far enough out that there's low confidence in timing or location of any precipitation chances.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued At 514 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.