textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Breezy through the weekend.
- Near or above normal temperatures through the forecast period.
- Mostly dry conditions expected over the next week.
DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 142 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026
Current Water Vapor and upper air models show west-northwest flow aloft, as upper ridge has built over the western CONUS, with the upper high located over the four corners region. 19Z surface analysis shows a frontal boundary running north/south through eastern Wyoming. Satellite shows clear skies across the forecast area. Temperatures sit in the upper 60s and 70s, with breezy winds out of the south.
Little change to the overall pattern is expected over the next week, with zonal to northwest flow aloft hanging around through the period. Mild Upper ridge remains mostly stagnant through the weekend, building a bit early next week. This will prompt warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with highs reaching into the 80s for some areas. Next disturbance comes Saturday as a wave rides the northwest flow through the Dakotas. Current models keep the bulk of better forcing in North Dakota, but some light precipitation could reach down into northwestern SD. Limited moisture in the region, so any precipitation will likely only amount to a trace or a few hundredths.
Upper ridge continues to dominate the western CONUS through much of next week, resulting in temperatures staying above normal, with a few small chances for light precipitation as weak shortwaves ride the northwest flow into the northern plains.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1113 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Breezy southerly winds will continue through 18-20z across NE WY before becoming lighter and more variable through the overnight hours. Winds across western SD (including KRAP) will persist through 21-23z before diminishing and becoming variable. Winds will shift out of the northwest after 03/12z and increase through Saturday morning with gusts 25 to 35 knots through the end of the TAF period into Saturday afternoon.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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