textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than normal temperatures linger through Tuesday.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions this weekend.

- Wildfire smoke is expected to linger into Monday.

- Dry weather for most areas, the exception will be near the Black Hills and in northwest SD Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening where there are chances for thunderstorms.

- Unsettled and cooler next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Friday) Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

It has been another clear sky day with hazy conditions. Latest air quality index is at the Moderate level with some isolated spots in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Looking ahead, a passing cool front will give some low-end shower and storm chances for parts of the southern SD plains this evening. Locally heavy rainfall rates, lightning, and strong gusty winds are the main concerns. Afterwards, skies will be quiet as temps cool to the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday will be an interesting day to see play out. Machine learning severe weather probability models have been highlighting an elevated risk for severe weather on Sunday for multiple days now. But hi-res short term models are hesitant to allow convection to happen. Mostly likely for several reasons, like how dry it is and how warm the atmosphere will be. But either way, the consensus is, if storms are able to get going, they could be strong to severe. The SPC has placed a Marginal over most of the SD counties with a Slight over the central SD counties. If storms are able to initiate, thinking is that they would begin near and in the Black Hills before drifting eastward into the SD plains. Main concerns would be wind and lightning.

Otherwise, skies will be on the sunnier side with lingering haze tomorrow. Afternoon temps will reach the low to mid 90s for most, a little cooler for some in the Black Hills and in northern SD.

Monday and Tuesday look similar, with highs mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Zonal flow will keep the daily chances for afternoon storms in place over the CWA.

Unsettled pattern under zonal flow will give the area cooler temps and daily chances for rain and storms for the second half of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued At 517 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Dense smoke will linger over northeast Wyoming through 09/03z, resulting in a slight reduction to slantwise visibility for the KGCC terminal. Smoke will persist over northwestern Wyoming through the remainder of the TAF period, however, visibility impacts will be less severe.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1147 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Dry and breezy conditions linger through this weekend. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect today for very low humidities and expected gusty winds.

Widespread elevated conditions can be expected Sunday, with critical conditions possible across portions of northeast WY where breezy westerly winds are possible. The red flag warning may need to be extended through Sunday for the zones in NE WY.

A cooling trend can be expected next week with unsettled conditions at times that could bring rain to the area.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ323-327. WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314>318.