textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warming trend and drier weather starts today and continues through the early week
- Unsettled and cooler for the latter half of the upcoming week
DISCUSSION
(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025
Current upper air analysis depicts upper level ridge axis over the Rockies with the Northern Plains under northwest flow. Temperatures across the CWA are slowly rising as WAA commences across the region, though many stations are still reporting temperatures in the single digits to low teens. Temperatures will rebound dramatically today thanks to strong WAA, especially across the Black Hills and northeastern WY where highs in the upper 50s to low 60s are possible. Highs towards central SD will be on the cooler side but still 20-30 degrees above what they were yesterday.
The CWA will remain under the influence of the upper level ridge through Tuesday, with mild and dry conditions as a result. Highs Tuesday be in the 50s to 60s across much of the area. Next northern stream shortwave grazes the Northern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. Not much expected from this system other than a wind shift Tuesday afternoon. More potent shortwave impacts the region Wednesday into Thursday, bringing colder air and chances for rain/snow into the region. Lower confidence in timing and precip amounts this far out but will be monitoring as we get closer to the event. Deterministic and ensemble guidance in fairly good agreement that active zonal flow will continue through the late week with the potential for occasional shots of cold air and more chances at light precip over the weekend.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 1005 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025
A small area of low clouds with MVFR/IFR ceilings has spread along the eastern foothills, impacting KRAP. Expect transient MVFR/IFR conditions through 08-09z before improvement to VFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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