textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures remain in the forecast. The hottest days will be Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 90s but 80s and 90s are expected Sunday and Monday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through Saturday.

- Best chance for passing showers and thunderstorms is on Sunday into Sunday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 931 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

No major changes to the forecast. Expired the RFW as winds have decreased, although RH remains in the teens to low 20s across NE WY and portions of SW SD and the southern Black Hills. Poor overnight RH recovery again tonight (30-45 percent) across NE WY and portions of the Black Hills. Near-critical conditions expected again tomorrow given hot (widespread mid to upper 90s) and RH in the teens, although winds will remain below RFW criteria. Still a day to watch given dry conditions and anomalously warm temperatures.

Isolated storms possible tomorrow, although weak flow and large- scale forcing will limit coverage and overall severe risk. Enough instability exists for transient severe hail/wind. Additional storms possible Sunday, some of which may be strong to severe. Beyond the severe risk, lightning is a concern regarding new fire starts for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Isolated passing thunderstorms tracked through western SD earlier today. And latest satellite and radar imagery shows clear skies moving into the area. But there are hints at low-end chances for spotty thunderstorms again later this afternoon into evening. A few boundaries are still showing up in western SD and northern Nebraska. Also, some hi res model guidance hints at storms redeveloping in southwest SD this afternoon. That being said, there is still some decent capping in the atmosphere but if storms are able to get going, they will track northeast and are not expected to be severe. Otherwise, tonight is looking like another mostly dry sky night with overnight temps in the 60s.

For the weekend, afternoon highs will remain well above normal for early September. Saturday's highs will be in mid to upper 90s for the SD plains and low to mid 90s in NE WY. Sunday's highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Best precip chances on Saturday are contained to the Black Hills and the area to the northeast, and in central SD. SPC has placed a marginal risk of severe storms in SD. But Sunday into Monday, an upper level trough looks to swing over Montana and that trough could bring passing thunderstorms to the area. The SPC has placed a marginal severe risk out for Sunday over the Black Hills and to the north and machine learning severe weather models are still hinting at a risk of severe weather centered over the CWA Sunday and Monday. Stay plugged into the forecast through the weekend for updates.

Beyond Monday, low end chances for precip lingers in the forecast with a slight cooling temperature trend.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 1033 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Isolated TS with gusty erratic winds are expected after 05/18z. The probability of the terminals being affected is too low at this point to introduce. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1219 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Warm and dry conditions are still found around the area today, especially over northeastern WY and parts of western SD. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for today for parts of the western fire zones.

Temperatures will be hot again tomorrow and Sunday with highs well into the 90s to near 100 degrees. Very low humidity is also expected to continue, dropping to near 15 to 20 percent in the afternoons across northeastern WY and portions of far western SD. The winds are looking to be a little calmer this weekend, so at this time, Red Flag Warning thresholds are not expected to be met so a Red Flag Warning extension is not expected at this time.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.