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KEY MESSAGES

-Hot weather will continue this week with highs in the 90s

-Thunderstorms will be possible at times this week as monsoon impulses advect around the ridge and across the region, main threat with storms will be gusty winds

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Saturday) Issued at 1154 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Upper level ridge will remain anchored over the Rockies into the Plains supporting hot temperatures through this week. The FA will remain on the northern periphery of the ridge with impulses traversing the flow. This will support near daily chances for TS as monsoon waves traverse the region. Week sfc trough has advected through the FA today with winds shifting northerly. This has knocked temps down a few degrees from yesterday, but still very hot. Weak capping over the BH with sufficient moisture will allow a few shra/ts to develop there this afternoon. Main focus will be the next impulse expected to support TS this evening in the west. TS will develop across WY and push east into the western FA this evening. High based nature will support gusty winds as the storms push east. As the wave progresses through the FA overnight, sct- isold shra/ts will be possible, mainly across the north. Hot Monday with temps in the mid to upper 90s once again. The next wave will arrive late afternoon/early evening and support TS across the western half, possibly earlier over the BH if subsidence behind tonight's wave has pushed east. Again, gusty winds will be the main threat from TS given continued high based nature. Same for each day the rest of the week, daily chances for shra/TS as monsoon moisture continues to advect around the backside of the ridge. Most days will see isold-sct activity given lack of strong forcing and high based nature of storms. However, a stronger wave may bring slightly better coverage of storms Wed into Thur if timing works out right. Otherwise, a break in this pattern and heat is not expected until early next week with a stronger northern stream shortwave flattens the ridge and supports a decent cold front into the Northern Plains.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1125 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Brief thunderstorms may form this afternoon/evening around the Black Hills, but modest instability will dampen severe potential. Nonetheless, dry and warm near surface conditions will support gusty and erratic winds near any storms that can survive. Wildfire smoke will move in to our area Monday, primarily over the SD plains, though at this time visibilities are expected to stay P6SM.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012-013- 025>027-030-031-041-042-072>076-078. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ014-032-043-044-046-047-049-077. WY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ054>056-058>060.