textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Warm and dry through next week

UPDATE

Issued at 920 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

WAA will ensue overnight tonight, with height rises supporting expanding mid and high level clouds. This will prevent temps from dropping off too much tonight. Warming up Sunday and Monday, with the warmest temps on Monday when widespread 80s are expected. A few 90s will also be possible. Cool front will move through Monday night, supporting a cooler but still mild Tuesday. Warm and dry the rest of the week. However, probs for much cooler weather are increasing to start the following week as deep upper trough looks to shift into SW Canada, forcing a strong cold front into the region, possibly supporting the first widespread freeze of the season.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving east across South Dakota pulling this morning's showers eastward as they continue to fizzle out. 16Z surface analysis depicts a cold front pushing south through the SD plains into northern parts of Nebraska. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are expected across the SD plains through the afternoon. Temperatures will stay in the mid/upper 70s through the week

As the aforementioned trough moves out, zonal to northwest flow will persist for the next several days. Temperatures through the week will remain seasonably in the 70s, aside for Monday and Tuesday which will jump to widespread mid 80s as minor ridging aloft moves in temporarily. Temps will then return back to normal for the remainder of next week. Tuesday looks slightly breezy with 25mph gusts over most of the area. Small shortwaves may crest the ridge through the week, but the large-scale pattern will break Sun-Mon when a large trough is forecasted to bring more active weather. Current guidance has it reaching the west coast Sat and the better forcing reaching SD later Monday morning.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 933 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Breezy southerly winds (~20kts) will increase over northeast Wyoming starting around 04/08z and last through Sunday morning, then becoming light and variable by midday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.