textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- One more chilly day Sunday - Relatively mild temperatures Monday through Friday, then chillier next weekend - Light precipitation late Tuesday/Wednesday and then again by next weekend

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Saturday) Issued at 947 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

04z surface analysis had sprawling high from central Canada into the southern Plains, which has locked cold air/clear skies over the CWA. Water vapour loop had upper ridge building into the Rockies, which will be the main weather maker into early next week.

Sunday, upper ridges builds toward the northern plains as surface high shifts east setting the stage for modest southeasterly return flow. Temperatures will be near guidance and slightly below seasonal normals.

Monday, upper ridge helps warm front move through the CWA with robust warm air advection. Highs in the 40s/50s will be common with highest readings just east of the Black Hills per downslope flow.

Tuesday, latest probabilistic guidance has trended cooler as it looks like a gentle back door cool front slides through in the afternoon as upper ridge retrogrades and west/northwest flow aloft develops. A weak shortwave zips by. This is reflected in 8-12F 25- 75th percentile MaxT temperature spreads with the most uncertainty over the far southwest reaches of the CWA. Moisture will be limited with front, but can't rule out some light QPF into Wednesday.

For the end of the week, slightly warmer temperatures expected Thursday/Friday (with some very dry air) before a better defined shortwave move through bringing a cold front and a chance of rain/snow into the weekend. Confidence in temperatures for next weekend low given proximity of frontal boundary.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 1018 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty south/southeast winds will develop Sunday over northeastern WY.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.