textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to occasionally heavy snow still expected through Sunday morning.

- Gusty northwest winds from 40 to 50 mph overnight will create areas of blowing and drifting snow.

- Below normal temperatures for Sunday and Monday, then warm and dry for the remainder of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1029 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Moderate to heavy snow has developed along band of 700mb FGEN and is pushing through the CWA at this hour. Current radar imagery shows the heaviest snow stretching from extreme southwestern SD northeastward into northern Jackson/southern Haakon counties. A glance at area webcams show visibilities along roadways have decreased to less than a mile in some spots with some sporadic white out conditions. Sfc low continues to deepen across western KS/NE with 3-hr pressure rises of 4-5 mb across northeastern WY and strong CAA supporting wind gusts of 30-40 mph.

Forecast remains on track with little change in expected snowfall totals. However, banding may result in locally higher amounts, especially across southwestern SD and the southern Black Hills. Winds will continue to increase through the overnight hours as the sfc low continues to deepen and track to the east. 3 hr pressure rises of 5-7 mb will support gusty northerly winds Sunday morning with NBM painting ~70-90% probs of gusts exceeding 45 mph over much of the western SD plains along and south of I-90. This will support widespread blowing snow across much of the western SD plains through the day Sunday. Have made no changes to the current headlines.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Upper level analysis shows quick moving zonal flow aloft currently with digging trough located across western MT/eastern ID. Fairly decent baroclinic leaf shield developing ahead of this trough across the rockies. At the surface, baroclinic zone is draped from northwest WY southeast through the Neb panhandle and along the Neb/SD border. South of this boundary, temps have risen into the mid 40s to mid 50s while north of the boundary, temps are struggling into the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Radar trends cont to show increasing area of light snow across NW SD, with area webcams showing areas of light snow verifying radar signatures. Visible sat imagery suggests that there might be some minor convective components associated with light snowfall, which also aligns well with steeping LL lapse rates ahead of cold front that is sagging south into northwest SD from ND.

For the overnight hours into Sunday, 700hpa low closes off and drops southeast through the upper midwest as an area of low pressure forms on the southern baroclinic boundary, strengthens and moves east. Following the cold front, very strong pressure rises follow which will aid in strengthening the northwest winds. 3-hrly pressure rises from 7-9mb are shown in the 15/06z to 15/12z time frame. Ensembles are showing probabilities of wind gusts > 45 mph by 12z Sunday in the 35%'ish range, while probabilities of wind gusts > 50 mph in the 20%'ish range for parts of the BH foothills and sections of the western SD plains. While snow totals still appear to be trending down slightly, the strong winds will still create vsby issues with blowing and drifting snow. Ended up increasing overnight winds a bit toward the NBM 75 percentile range. It seems lately that actual winds have overperformed what the actual models have advertised. With the strong CAA also taking place, snow ratios will also increase to 15-20 to 1, leading to some fluffier snow, which will be easier to pick up and blow around. Upslope snow conditions are still in store for the northern BH and foothills, and localized heavy amounts are certainly possible. Overall, while snowfall totals cont to trend down slightly, with the strong winds, forecasted wind chills by Sunday morning, and vsby impacts due to blowing and drifting snow, this still has the potential to be a very impactful storm.

It will dry out Sunday afternoon, and remain generally dry for the remainder of the week. Sub-seasonal normal temperatures are expected for Sunday night and Monday with overnight lows Sunday night falling into the single digits. Building 500hpa ridge through the rest of the week will bring warming conditions beginning Tuesday and carrying through the rest of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 949 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Gusty northwest winds, widespread snow, and blowing snow expected across much of the area tonight into Sunday morning. Flight conditions will reduce to MVFR to IFR (CIGS & VSBY) and continue through 11-14z/5-8am Sunday morning. A push back toward VFR conditions is expected Sunday morning behind this system, although NW winds will remain fairly strong Sunday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Sunday for SDZ001-002- 012>014-024-025-032-072-073-078. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Sunday for SDZ026-030-031-042>044-046-047-049-076-077. WY...Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Sunday for WYZ057-060. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Sunday for WYZ054>056.