textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for isolated storms/showers daily over the next few days.

- Warming up for the weekend with continued above normal temps lasting into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 920 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Unsettled SW flow aloft will continue into the weekend. Blanketed low chance pops across the FA Fri afternoon and evening with the next series of impulses. Gusty winds will be possible with any stronger TS cells. Widely scattered to isolated TS chances on track through Sun with the best chances across NW SD. Warm through the weekend, with a subtle cool down Sunday night into Monday. Above normal temps will the then continue most of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Wednesday) Issued at 1255 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Thunderstorms are trying to develop over the central and southern Black Hills as of the early afternoon hours. Destabilization will continue as surface temps warm to the 80s to low 90s. While most of the expected storms will be below severe thresholds, we can't rule out a few severe storms near the Black Hills and in southwest and south central SD. Main threats would be hail and wind.

For Friday and the weekend, afternoon temps will be warmer with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s Friday and Saturday, and only a few degrees cooler on Sunday. Overall, well above normal for late August.

The upper level pattern looks to change a little bit as well. The ridge of high pressure over the western US looks to slide east. This would give the area west to southwest flow, opening the door for daily showers and thunderstorms. As of now, the thinking is that any storm development would start in central Wyoming, and near the Black Hills, and those storms would then track eastward. SPC and machine learning severe weather models are highlighting some risk of severe weather, but it's marginal (15% chance or less) for now. So we can't rule severe storms out but it's not a clear signal for widespread severe weather.

Lingering low end chances for daily showers and storms last well into next week but the overall pattern is still on the dry side. Above normal temps will continue as well with highs in the 80s to 90s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 1040 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may cross portions of NE WY and NW SD overnight. Then better chances for thunderstorms are expected late Friday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and local MVFR/IFR conditions are possible near the strong precipitation. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.