textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- A major warming and drying trend will take hold for the rest of this week, with high temperatures reaching the mid-70s to mid-80s by our warmest days Friday and Saturday.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday for portions of northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions persist through Saturday.

- A cold front will cross the region by Sunday morning, taking 30 degrees off our temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 942 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected for portions of northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota Wednesday. Have expanded the Red Flag Warning to include northern Campbell County (WY), the southern Black Hills (including Qury Fire), Custer County Plains, and the Pine Ridge area. The ingredients are in place for critical fire weather conditions : mixing of higher momentum aloft, resulting in wind gusts 25 to 40 mph; and anomalously warm temperatures (mid 60s to mid 70s). While confidence in widespread <15 percent RH tomorrow is medium, the stronger winds + warm temperatures are exacerbated by persistent drought conditions across the warned area.

Forecast remains on track through the latter half of the week. Very warm temperatures will persist through Saturday ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s Thu-Sat. While cooler, but seasonable, air will filter in behind the front, precipitation looks wanting with most of the forecast area dry through at least the early portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Tuesday) Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Well...the rest of this week certainly WON'T feel like what we experienced this past weekend! On the synoptic scale, deep troughing is noted over the eastern US and longwave ridging is observed over the western US, with northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota caught in between under northwest flow aloft. A warm front has largely cleared the CWA, kicking off a progressive warming trend. The center of the western ridge will be anchored over the desert southwest through Saturday with very little movement, but will be amplified enough to keep the active storm track well to our north (largely over Canada) through the period. The ridge will therefore be our dominant synoptic player from this point forward, supporting our warming/drying trend and periodically breezy conditions along with some attendant fire weather concerns.

Today, expect high temperatures to top out in the mid-50s to upper- 60s, a stark contrast to the frigid conditions we briefly experienced over the last couple days. Gusty northwest winds are also increasing this afternoon (surface weather stations confirm several gusts of 40 to 55 MPH so far over the Black Hills region), with a continued expectation that some portion of 40-50kt winds at the top of the boundary layer will mix down to the surface. Ongoing HIGH WIND WARNINGS across the Black Hills, and WIND ADVISORIES north/west of a line from Rapid City to near Bridger to Faith...as well as over the far southwestern South Dakota Plains...continue until 6 PM before winds relax for the night. In the warning area, 6- hour probabilities of winds gusting over 55 MPH remain 60-80 percent, especially from just north/west of Custer up to the Lead, Deadwood, and Sturgis areas. A stray shower or sprinkle can't be ruled out well south and west of Gillette and Newcastle through this evening, but little to no QPF is expected if this occurs. The warmer temperatures starting today will rapidly melt what snowpack remains across portions of the region from our recent winter storm.

The warming trend continues all the way through Saturday with highs surging into the mid-60s to mid-70s Wednesday, 70s to near 80 Thursday, and mid-70s to lower 80s Friday and Saturday, which will place our region 25 to 30 degrees above climatological normals for mid-March! At this time, there is only a 10-20 percent chance of exceeding 80 degrees Thursday afternoon focused over the southwest South Dakota Plains, but those probabilities increase and expand significantly for Friday and Saturday (the two warmest days). Drier humidity values and some modest wind will also result in a several day stretch of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions (more on that in the FIRE WEATHER section below). Notable change arrives by Sunday morning, however, as a cold front crosses the region bringing an increase in humidity and chopping 30 degrees off our temperatures, with highs only expected to reach the upper-40s to mid-50s Sunday afternoon. 500mb height cluster analysis and EOF patterns show remarkably good agreement in the timing and amplitude of this shortwave trough/frontal feature. It's possible some rain and snow showers will accompany the front (along with a bit of wind), otherwise dry conditions are expected through the weekend. And, only one model cluster (representing about 30% of the model ensemble space) is running wetter than the mean, even then still coming in at under 0.10 inches QPF. Thus, significant precipitation does not seem likely at this juncture to help moderate our dry late- winter.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1023 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty west/northwest winds will develop by 18/18z, especially on the open plains with gusts from 25-35kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 942 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Beyond Wednesday, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of the forecast area. Very warm temperatures will persist through Saturday with 80s expected across the lower elevations Thursday through Saturday. Driest conditions expected across NE WY into southwestern SD Thu-Sat, although strongest winds will not overlap with lowest RH, which may mitigate fire weather conditions Thu-Fri. The strongest winds Thu-Fri are forecast across NW SD, where RH values will be above critical thresholds.

Cold front will bring cooler (more seasonable) temperatures to the area Sunday, although no precipitation looks limited with the frontal passage.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for SDZ321-322- 325-326. WY...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ314-315- 317.