textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Complex of strong to severe storms currently over western SD will weaken over the next few hours. More storms possible overnight over the Black Hills, some of which may be strong to severe and capable of large hail (1+") and damaging winds (60+ mph).

- Slight risk (level 2 of 5) over western SD for Friday with main threats including large to very large hail (2+") and damaging winds (60+ mph).

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over the Black Hills for Saturday with main threats including large hail (1+") and damaging winds (60+ mph).

UPDATE

Issued at 1004 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Storms are still ongoing with a cluster of strong to severe storms in southern Meade County tapping into 2000 J/kg SB CAPE. These storms have a history of producing large hail and wind gusts of 60+ mph. Outflow winds have reached Rapid City and gusts of 40+ mph can be expected over the next few hours as this storm cluster slowly weakens through midnight.

CAMs show another round of convection moving into the Black Hills from NE WY later tonight/early this morning. Some storms could become strong to severe with main hazards including large hail (1+") and damaging wind gusts.

Forecast remains on track tomorrow for more severe weather. CAMs are depicting storms developing over the Black Hills by later tomorrow afternoon (around 3 or 4 pm) and moving over the adjacent plains through the evening hours. Effective shear of 30-40KT and CAPE approaching 2000-3000 J/kg will support severe weather with the primary hazards being large to very large hail (2+" in diameter) and damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Wednesday) Issued at 1154 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Bottom line up front: There will be daily chances for thunderstorms, some strong to severe with large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts as primary hazards, through much of the holiday weekend.

Upper level analysis depicts trough over the western US. A subtle shortwave feature is apparent over UT/ID in water vapor imagery. A layer of wildfire smoke aloft is resulting in hazy skies over the Northern Plains. Closer to home, isolated convection associated with another weak wave has developed this morning across northeastern WY into western SD. This convection should clear out by the afternoon, no severe weather is expected with this round of storms.

This Afternoon/Evening: Attention turns to this afternoon where scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. There is some question as to how the convection this morning, the wildfire smoke aloft, and subtle 500mb height rises will impact storm chances later this afternoon and evening. Short range model guidance depicts around 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE over northwestern into south central SD by this afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30-40kt will support organized convection and multicells in any storms that do form. CAMs from this morning show storms developing off the higher terrain of the northern Black Hills into northwestern SD where the greatest instability is. These storms will have the highest likelihood of becoming severe with large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts as the main hazards. Dry air near the surface will limit overall tornado potential, but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out. As for timing, discrete storms will begin to develop along the SD/MT border and the northern Black Hills as early as 1 pm and move eastward and grow into an MCS through the afternoon and evening. If convection develops far enough south, the storms may reach the Rapid City area by around 5 or 6 pm.

Friday: A stronger wave approaches the area Friday with a risk for scattered severe storms. The 12z NAM has 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE developing over the Black Hills into southwestern and south central SD by mid afternoon Friday. Meanwhile, increasing mid- level flow will contribute to 30-40kt effective shear developing over the area. This should be enough to support supercell development with large to very large hail and damaging winds as the main threats. There's still some uncertainty as to how the storms will evolve with any outflows from today's convection influencing development tomorrow.

Saturday: Unsettled flow continues through Saturday with shortwave ridging developing to our west. The ridge will limit overall storm chances. However, moderate instability (2000-2500 J/kg CAPE per the NAM) will develop over the Black Hills by Saturday afternoon with 30- 40KT bulk shear. Storms may develop over the higher terrain of the Black Hills before moving eastward into the adjacent plains. There's enough shear and instability to support marginal severe potential with large hail and damaging winds as the main hazards.

By Sunday, the upper ridge will have moved overhead and this should keep things dry through the end of the weekend. Along with the ridge, temperatures will warm up slightly to the upper 80s to upper 90s. Hot weather with daily chances for storms will continue through early next week with highs in the upper 80s to 90s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 1106 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to develop and move over northeast Wyoming and northwest South Dakota throughout the overnight hours. There will be a short break in the morning before storm chances return for much of northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota starting around 03/17-18z. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions are possible around any heavier precipitation cores.

VFR conditions are mainly expected away from any thunderstorms.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.