textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- High winds and areas of light snow persist through this afternoon. Gusts up to 70 mph likely across the western South Dakota plains.

- Colder air remains entrenched through Thanksgiving with another shot of even colder air this weekend plus snow chances.

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Monday) Issued at 136 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Water vapor imagery shows stout vorticity max pushing through NE MT/W ND with shortwave trough axis extending southward through NE WY into eastern CO. Surface cold front has surged south and east of the area with colder air spilling into the forecast area. Rain/snow showers are quickly shifting east of the forecast area, with lingering light upslope snow in the Black Hills. Upper level forcing will slowly push east of the forecast area as the trough pivots into the Upper Midwest by 00Z tonight, with snow diminishing rapidly this afternoon. Another inch or two is possible across the Black Hills, with little to no accumulation elsewhere.

High winds remain on track this morning into the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, strong cold air advection, and 40-50+ knot winds atop the mixed layer will support wind gusts up to 65-70 mph from NW SD through the Pennington County plains into south-central SD today. The winds will quickly diminish from west to east after 22-00z this afternoon.

Northwest flow will continue Wednesday into Thanksgiving with below average temperatures (~5-10F below normal) and generally dry conditions. A few light snow showers/flurries are possible Wednesday in the Black Hills as a weak wave ripples through the northwest flow.

A much more active pattern is in store Friday through the weekend. Split flow is forecast to develop by late Friday following an initial shortwave that pivots through the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains by 00z Saturday. Given the messy, split flow, ensembles show wide spreads re: surface low development and location, which will have a large impact on overall snow threat. However, broad large-scale ascent will be present Friday into early Saturday and again Sunday with near-daily chances of light snow Friday through Monday. The current forecast has the best threat of accumulating snow (~70%+ probability of snow >4" Friday- Monday AM) in the Black Hills given upslope enhancement; much less confidence in snow potential elsewhere. In addition to the snow chances, much colder air will surge into the region with highs in the teens and 20s Sunday-Monday and lows near 0F each night.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1000 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Strong northwest winds will continue across the region with gusts to 50 knots at KRAP. Winds will begin to diminish after 20-22z from west to east with light winds expected after 03-06z. Isold MVFR ceilings and -SN are expected across the western SD plains through 23Z.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for SDZ001-012-013-025-026-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-072- 073-077-078. Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ002-014-027- 030-042-074>076. WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ060.