textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible Tuesday morning across northwestern South Dakota.

- Warming trend and dry through the weekend into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 912 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

No big changes made to the forecast. Pushed the fog development back to match current conditions and raised overnight lows a few degrees due to lingering cloud cover.

But the forecast for the rest of the week was left alone. Inherited forecast matched latest model ensemble guidance. Still expecting a dry few days with a warming trend. The weekend is looking quite warm with highs reaching the 60s on Saturday with 60s and 70s likely Sunday. But cooler air moves in late Sunday, dropping highs back to the 50s to low 60s.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Closed upper low evident in water vapor imagery is centered over southern MN/northern IA. Further upstream, another closed low is pushing into the Four Corners region. A surface low is centered across northern WI/west-central MN with a secondary trough axis stretching back into SD. Low clouds and spotty light showers are pushing through south-central SD along the northwestern periphery of the upper low; coverage and amounts will be limited. Precipitation chances taper off quickly this afternoon as the low pulls away. Patchy fog is possible across northwestern SD into north- central SD tonight after 06-08z; CAMs continue to show potential (REFS prob of visibility < 3 miles ~50-70%) for widespread fog in this area.

Mild and dry weather continues through the week with even warmer weather for the weekend into early next week as upper ridge builds. Looking at high temperatures Saturday through Monday of 10F+ above normal. Expect elevated fire weather conditions given warm and dry weather coupled with breezy winds through Monday. A quick moving clipper will drop through the region late Friday with breezy NW winds Saturday across northwestern SD (gusts 25 to 35 mph). No precipitation on the horizon, at least through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued At 339 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Patchy MVFR/IFR fog/stratus may occur over far northwestern into central SD before 05/16z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.