textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Later tonight, gusty northwest winds wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph are likely as a front tracks through.

- Much cooler this weekend with chances for light rain and possibly snow for parts of the western CWA Saturday night into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Big changes are on the way to the area tonight. An area of low pressure tracking northeast west of the CWA will be the big source of our big weather changes.

Strong southwest winds are in place over the area today, bringing well above normal afternoon temps. A Red Flag Warning is in place in NE WY and NW SD through this evening. Campbell County has a High Wind Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT due to gusts over 60 mph. Winds will diminish this evening.

As the previously mentioned low pressure tracks east through southern Canada, a strong cold front will push through tonight. This front will swing winds to the northwest and increase speeds. Sustained speeds around 25 to 35 with gusts around 35 to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory has been posted for the zones that will likely see the strongest gusts around 45 to 55 mph. This Advisory will go into effect tonight at Midnight and expire at 9 AM Saturday. Saturday will still see gusty winds, but at this time, not to the level of needing the Advisory.

Temperatures will also be greatly impacted by this front, highs this weekend into next week will be in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s.

As far as precip goes, as the front pushes through tonight, there is a slight chance for rain showers for parts of western SD. Then Saturday is looking dry and sunny. But Saturday night through Monday, a lingering upper level trough to the west will give the area surges of moisture that will be mostly rain but we can't rule out snow mixing Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning.

Next week looks to continue the cooler, near normal, temps with the occasional, short-lived, chances for showers.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued At 516 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Gusty winds will continue to weaken over northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota. A strong cold front is expected tonight, shifting winds to the northwest. Gusts in Wyoming will decrease to around 30kts, while gusts across the western South Dakota plains will increase to around 45kts. Timing of the front remains around 03z for KGCC and 06z for KRAP. A low cloud deck may accompany the front in northwestern Wyoming, bringing MFVR conditions. Winds will begin to diminish by the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 102 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are still expected over northeastern WY this Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Southwest winds have picked up with sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph with frequent gusts upwards of 50 to 65 mph. The strongest gusts, up to 60 to 65 mph, will last through the afternoon before weakening a bit ahead of the frontal passage late this evening.

In addition to the winds, temperatures will climb in the upper 60s to 70s and humidities will drop to 13 to 20% Friday afternoon. Taking into consideration the combination of dry fuels and very Because of these conditions, the Red Flag Warning remains in effect.

Beyond that, a cold front will push through the region late Friday night with winds shifting to the northwest behind the front. Winds will remain quite gusty behind the front with gusts of 45 to 55 mph expected over the western CWA. Winds will diminish through Saturday morning as the front moves out of the area. Not expecting any wetting precip with this front. Much cooler temperatures expected over the weekend with a chance for rain and snow Sunday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for SDZ001-002-012>014-026-030>032-041>043-072-073-078. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for SDZ323-327. WY...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314>318. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ054-055.