textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Widespread critical fire wx conditions expected across portions of northeastern WY, the southern Black Hills, and much of the western SD plains.

-Strong winds will develop across portions of northeastern WY and southwestern SD late tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. Gusts of up to 65 mph possible.

-More strong winds across NW SD Tues night, with gusts over 60 mph possible there

-Accumulating snow Wed night into Thurs, best chances from northeast WY into south central SD where 3-5 inches are possible

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Monday) Issued at 936 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Massive western CONUS trough will fracture with two main pieces shifting east this week. Main pool of cold air will then settle into the area Thurs behind a secondary compact, but potent upper trough, which will eject east out of the central Rockies Wed night and support widespread snow. Dry and mild SW flow continues over the region. Splitting upper trough will shift east Tues, kicking out the lee-side trough. Initial SFC low will track over the FA Tues, with the system dry slot shifting across the southern half where deep mixing will occur. Expect strong gusty winds to develop from parts of NE WY east into SW SD where gusts over 60 mph are expected per deeply mixed WSW flow. In addition, strong gusty downslope winds will also develop in the northern foothills. Wind warnings and advisories remain in effect. Copious amounts of dry in place will highly limit any precip Tues across most of the area. The exception will be along and north of the low track across NW SD. Have trimmed pops to mainly this area Tues. Cold front will shift across the area Tues night, with strong NW winds developing across NW SD. Forecast models have continued to indicate the potential for warning level winds there given a 6-7 MB per 3hr pressure rise couplet, mean BL flow over 35 knots, and strong CAA. Decided to issue a high wind watch there Tue night. Strong winds will also be possible with the cold front for a short duration across western SD, esp on the Plains just east of the BH where gusts over 60 mph are quite possible for an hour or 2. Will let the day shift re-assess if additional wind products will be needed. The next vort max will shift into the area Wed night, with the sfc low tracking south of the area. FGEN band will develop Wed night over NE WY and shift across the area through Thur, supporting a decent period of snow. Open wave will support a quicker advection of the system, which will likely limit snow amounts to a degree. However, southern Hills induced terrain convergence, slantwise banding, and steep lapse rates in the DGZ will allow areas of enhanced lift/snowfall. Generally expecting 2-4 inches from NE WY into scentral SD, with locally higher amounts possible given above concerns. Much colder for the end of the week as a secondary cold front moves through behind this wave. Temps will fall below zero in portions of the area Thur night, esp given fresh snow and clearing. Things remain cool but slowly warm into the weekend with a warm up early next week as the western ridge reforms.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 430 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. LLWS is expected until 14Z producing 45-55KT winds around 2000 feet AGL mainly over northeastern WY.

Surface winds are expected to become strong out of the southwest this morning across NE WY, spreading into western SD after 14-16Z, with gusts 35-50 knots. Strongest winds at KGCC and portions of NE WY. A cold front passing through this evening will bring gusty winds out of the northwest, with the strongest winds from northwest to central SD.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 936 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Widespread near critical to critical fire wx conditions will develop tomorrow afternoon. Winds will increase out of the west through the morning hours, especially over northeastern WY into western SD where widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected with some areas in southwestern SD gusting up to 65 mph. Temperatures ahead of a cold front will warm to the mid 50s to mid 60s with humidities dropping to the mid teens to low 20s. With the recent dry weather, the strong winds, above average temperatures, and low humidities, have high confidence in widespread critical fire wx conditions developing across northeastern WY into the Black Hills and the western SD plains.

Cold front will move across the area later tomorrow morning into the afternoon with winds decreasing through the evening hours. Light rain/snow showers may develop as the front passes through, chances for wetting rains will be very low. Accumulating snow is expected Wed night into Thur across most of the area with 3-5 inches possible from northeast WY, the Black Hills, and south central SD.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Wednesday for SDZ001-002-012-013-078. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for SDZ320>327-329-331>335. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Wednesday for SDZ014. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ025. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for SDZ027-029-041-075. WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ314>317. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ054-055-058-059.