textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures and dry conditions through the weekend.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions at times Saturday through Monday.

- Return to more active weather and precipitation chances latter half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 132 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Have hoisted a Red Flag Warning for southern Campbell County WY (Fire Weather Zone 315) for later this morning into the afternoon hours. Latest HREF joint probabilities indicate 40-60% chance of MinRH <15% and wind gusts >25mph, which meshes with Bufkit forecast sounding momentum transfer depictions.

UPDATE Issued at 929 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

No major changes to the forecast with this update. Strong southerly winds will persist overnight with poor RH recovery, particularly across south-central South Dakota. Winds will shift southwesterly Saturday morning with gusts 25 to 45 mph (gusts to 50 mph possible in Tripp County). Expect RH to fall into the teens to near 10 percent across the entire forecast area, although winds will remain below critical thresholds outside of the RFW. Regardless, given the above average temperatures and lack of antecedent moisture, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected for the rest of the forecast area outside of the RFW.

Poor overnight RH recovery (35-45 percent) across portions of northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills, and foothills Saturday night. Elevated fire weather conditions and very warm temperatures will continue through at least Monday ahead of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show broad ridge building over the western CONUS, with northwest flow over the forecast area. Surface analysis shows high pressure just east of the CWA, with a low over western MT. Winds are relatively light and variable this afternoon, with temperatures in the 40s.

As upper ridge settles in, expect a warming trend over the weekend, along with dry conditions. Temperatures climb back up to 20-30F above normal for Saturday through Monday. Elevated to critical fire weather may be possible at times as the warmer temperatures combine with low RH and gusty winds at times. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for parts of southwestern to south- central SD for Saturday morning and afternoon. Sunday is a bit more borderline, as RH's will dip into the low teens for some areas, however highest winds are expected in the 15-25 MPH range. Monday continues the low RH trend, but stronger winds returning. Higher confidence in needing fire weather headlines for Monday, but cannot rule out some potential for Sunday as well.

Forecast confidence wavers further out towards middle of next week. Long range models point towards a trough sliding across southern Canada towards middle of next week, bringing chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures. Then towards the weekend a stronger trough settles into the Rockies and eventually over the plains, setting up more chances for precipitation. While confidence is low on timing and location of any precipitation, confidence is increasing that we will at least see more active weather the latter half of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 1133 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Southwest wind gusts around 30-45kts will occur from KIEN-KICR through 28/19z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 128 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A warming trend over the weekend, coupled with low RH's and gusty winds at times will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Saturday morning winds will pick up due to a low level jet passing through, resulting in wind gusts 35 to 50 mph at times for parts of the western SD plains. RH's are also expected to dip into the teens over much of the forecast area for Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for parts of southwestern to south-central SD for Saturday morning through the afternoon, where the stronger winds and low RH's may coincide.

Sunday is expected to have even lower RH's, however the winds aren't quite as bad. Low afternoon RH's will continue into Monday as well with stronger winds returning. Moderate confidence more fire weather headlines will be necessary for Sunday, and higher confidence for Monday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ325-326-332>335. WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315.