textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- A round of showers and potential thunderstorms is expected this afternoon/evening and tomorrow.

- General northwest flow will keep unsettled weather in the area through Thursday.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1001 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Forecast remains mostly on track, with little changes in the short term. Some minor tweaks to QPF/PoPs for Wednesday. Mid-level forcing will allow for more showery precipitation, mainly for Wednesday afternoon into the early evening, but cant rule out some isolated showers tonight into Wednesday morning based off of CAMs. Low end CAPE in the region Wednesday afternoon might spark a bit of lightning, but expect mostly just showers with light QPF similar to today. Generally QPF expectancy in the 0.01-0.1" range, but some localized higher amounts possible given the light convective nature.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through the Weekend) Issued at 241 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The forecast is still holding on to a quieter one. That being said, there are some concerns but nothing far outside of normal for the area.

An overall northwest flow in the upper levels will keep some low- end PoPs in the forecast through the next couple days. Then a ridge of high pressure late in the week would give clear and sunny skies Thursday night through Saturday. Low-end PoPs return to the area Saturday night as the ridge breaks down and northwest flow returns. Those precip chances will last into Sunday.

For the precip chances this afternoon and tomorrow, thunderstorms can't be ruled out. As of this writing, around noon Tuesday, skies are clearing out from the northwest. These clearer skies and the northwest flow will introduce some instability so showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning this afternoon and lasting into the evening. Showers are developing near NE WY to NW SD and track southeast. Severe weather is not expected at this time but any storms that are able to develop will be monitored closely.

The showers and storm potential return tomorrow. A weak shortwave will swing over the area from the north. This shortwave would bring some lift and is projected to get some showers going for those mainly around the Black Hills and in NW SD, although parts of central SD can't be ruled out. And with just enough instability forecasted, thunderstorm chances are possible again.

Temperatures are still expected to rise this week. Overnight lows will be stuck in the upper 20s to low 30s through Thursday night. Wednesday and Thursday are looking warmer than today with highs in the 50s to near 60. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be warmer still with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

The EFI tables are not highlighting highly elevated winds this week. That being said, Wednesday and Thursday will see some stronger wind speeds than what we are seeing today. Winds will swing to the northwest and pick up speeds to around 10 to 20 mph, gusts upwards of 30 mph. Wind speeds like this aren't bad for what we are used to but it's a change from today. Nothing extreme, just different.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1040 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR conditions are present at both TAF sites and expected to last through tomorrow morning. Light rain showers are possible early Wed. afternoon near KRAP. Precipitation exits out to clear skies by late Wed. evening.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.