textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild start to the week with cooler weather for the end of the week - Limited precipitation chances with chance of >0.10" QPF <25% during any 24-hour period through next weekend

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 135 PM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

20z surface analysis had warm front east of CWA, scouring low clouds/fog away. Mild temperatures left behind with some passing cirrus. Water vapour matinee had upper ridge flattening as it moves east over the central CONUS. Mostly quiet weather expected through the period.

West/northwest flow aloft will develop this week with passing disturbances ushering in slightly cooler air with each associated cool front. Breezy/windy spots may occur with each moisture- starved system. First wiggle arrives Monday night/early Tuesday with low PoPs, especially for the northern Black Hills. Next system arrives later Wednesday into Thursday with similar results. Upper trough then moves through the northern Plains with stronger cold front Thursday night/Friday. Even with the cool fronts, temperatures will be above normal except for perhaps Friday/Saturday - the latest ensemble guidance has warmed up some, although spreads are pretty large, especially Saturday. The chance of >0.10" QPF during any 24-hour period over the next 7-days is <25%.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 953 PM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.

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