textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy and warmer today

- Mainly dry and seasonally mild conditions expected much of this week, especially western areas

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Sunday) Issued at 214 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

Northwest flow continues aloft over the northern Great Plains, in between the large trough over the eastern CONUS and strong ridging approaching the Pacific coast. A shortwave has crossed the Dakotas moving SSE and, behind it, weak ridging has moved into the region. Surface obs show 1038mb high pressure across the northern and central Plains, with clear skies across the CWA. Wind chills are generally in the -5 to -25F range. Cold Wx Advisory remains in effect for SW/SCentral SD until 14z. Very strong warm air advection has begun across the CWA. IR sat shows surface warming over parts of the NE WY plains and the eastern half of the Black Hills. This warm air will continue to work into the area this morning, with rising temps even before sunrise. Will reassess the Cold Wx Advisory later in the shift to see if there is a need to cancel the headline. Temps today will warm into the 30s and 40s, with the warmest spots just east of the Black Hills where downsloping will be strongest. Strengthening pressure gradient on the backside of the surface high, along with a weak upper wave crossing the area today, will bring gusty winds to the western SD plains. Gusts will generally be 35 to 45 mph. A few gusts could reach 50 mph, but not expecting this to be widespread enough for a Windy Advisory. Dry weather is expected today and tonight. An upper wave will drop south from central Canada and move into ND/MN. Arctic air will surge back into the northern Plains...and approach the CWA from the NE. However, it still looks like the frontal boundary will stall across central SD and remain there for much of this week. Temps each day through Thursday are expected to be in the 30s and 40s...while locations close to central SD may be limited to the 20s. Upper ridging across the western CONUS begins to break down toward mid week as a series of waves pushing into the Pac Coast. There is uncertainty as to how this will play out for the second half of the week. This pattern may bring a little more unsettled weather to the region. Will keep minor pops in the forecast along with near average temps.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 214 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. LLWS is expected across much of NE WY and western SD, including the Black Hills, until around 18Z. West winds with gusts to 40 knots will develop across northwest SD by late this morning.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ this morning for SDZ041>044-046-047-049-075>077. WY...None.