textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light precipitation chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday.

- Colder temperatures and chances for precipitation return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 756 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show northwest flow over the forecast area as upper trough/low sits over the New England region and mild ridging over the western CONUS. 03Z surface analysis shows low pressure over far northeastern Montana, warm frontal boundary running south through central South Dakota. Satellite shows widespread high cloud over the forecast area, while radar has some very light returns over northeastern WY (not reaching the ground) this evening. Current temperatures sit in the upper 30s and 40s with mostly light and variable winds.

Winds may become a bit breezy out of the northwest to west tonight as a low level jet streak sets up over the Dakotas with gusts up to 25kts possible. Breezy winds will continue during the day Tuesday as a shortwave clips the forecast area, with gusts up to 35kts possible during the afternoon over the western SD plains. Some light precipitation may also be possible during the day, generally over parts of northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills, however limited moisture transport will mean little to no accumulations expected. A bit stronger wave makes its way down the Ridge into South Dakota late Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing more widespread precipitation chances. Once again limited moisture with this disturbance, albeit a bit more than Tuesday's. HREF probabilities of QPF >= 0.1" range from 50 to 80 percent over far northeastern WY into the northern Black Hills, while elsewhere, chances are < 40 percent. Temperatures will also play a role Wednesday as warming occurs, giving a mix of precip types. Best chances for accumulating snow will be over the higher elevation northern Black Hills regions, where an inch or two may be possible.

Mild and dry conditions return for Thursday and Friday. Decent mixing of west-northwest winds will bring elevated fire weather conditions as afternoon humidities drop down to around 20 percent for some areas at times. Longer range models show another upper disturbance sliding across south central Canada over the weekend, bringing another drop in temperatures for Saturday and increasing chances for light precipitation.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1009 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Areas of light rain/snow possible this afternoon, mainly Black Hills, portions of NE WY, and NW SD with transient MVFR/IFR conditions in heavier cores. Otherwise, most areas will remain VFR.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.