textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry and mild through the rest of the week.

- Breezy Tuesday and Wednesday. Some gusts to 50 mph are possible Wednesday across the western SD plains

UPDATE

Issued at 1026 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Deep easterly flow continues at this time across much of the CWA will become more southeasterly late tonight...then becoming southerly by sunrise tomorrow morning. This will be ahead of a strengthening low pressure/clipper system crossing the northern Rockies and approaching the northern High Plains late Tuesday. Warmer air will advect in Tuesday morning, bringing with it highs in the upper 60s/low 70s across NE WY and far SW SD. A strong cold front will push through Tuesday night, with gusts to 50 mph initially behind the front. No headlines will be needed for this short-lived event. The clipper/upper low will cross ND during the day Wednesday...and a vort lobe will round the backside of the low increase the pressure gradient across the CWA. NW winds with gusts to 50 mph are expected. Could possibly see a few gusts to 50kt, but think this will be limited to the early afternoon where mixing heights reach high enough to transport higher gusts before the pressure gradient gradually weakens. Still looks to be a solid advisory at this point. Will watch trends.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 213 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Broad, weak western US ridging is forecast to remain in place over the next week or so. With limited strength/amplification, multiple weak disturbances and shortwave troughs are progged to move through northern portions of the ridge and periodically impact our forecast area, especially Tuesday night and again Thursday, but bringing very little if any meaningful precipitation. Precipitation chances increase next weekend as a large storm system moves into the west. Temperatures will fluctuate throughout the week with brief warmups ahead of each system/feature, and then modest cooldowns behind. Saturday currently looks like the warmest day with highs reaching the mid-upper 70s.

We're watching periods of enhanced winds Tuesday across most of the South Dakota Plains, and then Wednesday across the Plains north and east of Rapid City into North Dakota behind a cold front. Tuesday, SE winds will reach 15-25 MPH gusting to 40 MPH. Wednesday, NBM guidance is going as high as 25-35 MPH out of the northwest gusting to 55+ MPH. This feels like it could be coming in a bit "hot" compared to some other guidance, however we do note a jet streak rounding the base of a closed low to our north with 40-50kts of flow at 700mb. In addition, about 30% of GFS ensemble members and 60% of ECMWF ensemble members are gusting over 50 MPH for Buffalo per model meteograms, and diurnal timing is favorable for mixing, although model soundings suggest we may not QUITE mix that high into the column. Currently, the NBM carries a 50-70% of wind gusts exceeding 50 MPH across portions of Harding, Perkins, Butte, and Meade counties. All things considered, there is some potential that wind alerts may be needed for several zones if current guidance remains consistent or increases. For now have capped NBM-generated wind gusts in our official forecast at 55 MPH.

Watching for fire weather concerns...Tuesday features the strongest winds in the north and east, displaced from RHs drying into at least the lower 20% range in the south and west. Wednesday we may see some better overlap, especially across some of the South Dakota plains. Thursday we're a touch less dry with much less wind as well. So, some areas of at least elevated fire weather conditions are certainly possible Tuesday, and especially Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 506 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Breezy southerly winds will persist through the day today across the western SD plains, with winds becoming westerly in NE WY after 18-19z. Cold front will move through from NW to SE after 08/06z, shifting winds out of the northwest with a wind gust surge of 30 to 40 knots immediately behind the front. Stronger NW winds will overspread western SD plains, especially NW SD, after 08/12-14z.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.