textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and unsettled through the weekend.

- Temperatures expected to remain at or below normal for the forecast period, with occasional chances for light precipitation.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 1221 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Current upper air models and Water Vapor show the upper low over southern AB this afternoon, with a wave traversing the Dakotas. Surface analysis has a surface low over southern MB, with the current frontal boundary affecting our region 2/3 through the forecast area, currently stretching from north central SD down into southwestern SD, with a line of precipitation along it. Gusty northwest winds both ahead and behind the frontal boundary, with temperatures currently in the 30s and 40s behind the front, and 50s to near 70 out ahead of the front in south central SD.

Frontal boundary will exit the forecast area this afternoon moving eastward, with most areas seeing dry conditions the remainder of the day outside of the precip along the boundary. Gusty northwest winds will also begin diminishing late afternoon as pressure changes weaken farther behind the front. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory remain in effect until early this evening, but may end up downgrading the High Wind Warning this afternoon as wind trends have been more in the 40 to 55 mph range.

This unsettled pattern continues for much of the forecast period, as the Upper Low slowly progresses from southwestern to south- central Canada, and models showing multiple waves rotating around the Low. Tonight into Friday will see another round of precipitation as a second disturbance pushes through, bringing isolated to scattered rain/snow. Could see some areas get some wetting precip with HREF 24 hr precip >= 0.25" showing a 40-60 percent signal for northeastern WY into the Black Hills and southwestern SD. Some of the higher elevation areas could see accumulations of an inch or two through Friday, though likely melting as it falls given the time of year.

Very little change to the pattern through the weekend, with the upper low mostly stationary, and disturbances bringing daily chances for light precipitation. Upper Low finally lifts northeast early next week but upper trough continues the cooler temps and unsettled weather through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday) Issued At 1139 AM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A cold front will continue to move through the region with gusty northwest winds behind it, light rain and snow showers, and areas MVFR/local IFR conditions across northeastern WY/northwestern SD. Wind gusts over 50 knots will be possible across NW SD. Another disturbance will bring a chance of rain/snow to the area tonight, with more MVFR (local IFR) conditions.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012- 013-031-072-073-078. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ014-027-032-041- 075. WY...None.