textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near or slightly above normal through the forecast period.

- Mostly dry conditions expected the remainder of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 925 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Satellite shows tropical remnants spinning over the southern Great Plains and shedding thick clouds over most of South Dakota. Surface analysis depicts a weak cold front positioned from the southern Black Hills to the northeast corner of SD, bringing temps in the low 50s to the region tonight. No changes are needed for the forecast. Precip chances remain low and focused over the Black Hills and far northwestern SD. Clouds will linger well into Thursday and keep temps in the 60s.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 227 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show near zonal flow aloft, with an upper low located over the four corners region. 20Z surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Wyoming this afternoon Satellite has some mid and high clouds reaching into southwest and south central SD. Temperatures sit in the upper 60s and 70s, with generally light winds out of the northwest. Little change to the overall pattern is expected through the week, with near-zonal to northwest flow aloft hanging around. Mostly dry conditions are expected as well. A cold front is expected Thursday, dropping temperatures 15-20 degrees from today. Limited moisture with this disturbance, but some light precipitation will be possible Thursday into Thursday night. Temperatures then warm up a bit for the first half of the weekend before another boundary cools the region down again on Sunday. Once again, with limited moisture advection, expect little to no precipitation over the weekend. Early next week the upper ridge builds over the western CONUS, prompting a rise in temperatures to the 70s and low 80s for much of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued At 1026 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

A frontal system will move through overnight bringing higher winds, gusts and increased cloud cover. Overnight increasing low level clouds below 3000ft in the Black Hills and NE WY could drop conditions into MVFR/IFR and continue through the day Thursday. Winds will decrease Thursday morning following the passage of the system and there are low chances for isolated showers. At the end of the forecast period winds in NE WY will increase and become gusty from the SE.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.