textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow on Tuesday. Accumulations less than an inch on the plains with 1 to 4 inches in the Black Hills.

- Windy and warm on Thursday.

- Unsettled weather Friday though the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Monday) Issued at 951 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Upper air analysis shows a low amplitude trough across the western half of the CONUS. A ~170kt jet streak is beginning to move onshore the Pac NW coast. At the surface, northerly flow continues behind the front, which has now pushed into central Nebraska. Tonight/Tuesday...the trough will deepen as the jet streak crosses the NW CONUS. Strong forcing will support the forming of a band of precip across NE WY through NW SD Tuesday morning, then will slide southward across the CWA through the afternoon and evening. Precip is expected to start as snow across NW SD...and perhaps as rain before changing over later in the afternoon south of the I-90 corridor, as temps warm into the 40s. Most snow will struggle to stick across the plains, given above freezing air/ground temps and isolation this time of year, but the best chance for accumulating snow will be over NW SD in the morning before temps rise and perhaps south central SD as temps fall in the evening. The colder Black Hills and Bear Lodge Mountains will result in higher accumulations, but there could still be hindering from ground temps/insolation. Models has settled on 1 to 4 inches centered across the northern Black Hills, so have issued a Winter Weather Advisory 15z-06z. Warmer weather will work back into the region Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on Thursday could reach well into the 60s across much of the area. A strong shortwave is progged to cross the northern Plains along with a deepening surface low. A strengthening pressure gradient will bring gusty winds to the CWA. A cold front is then expected Thursday afternoon, which will increase winds further. Could see gusts to 65 mph. Rain changing to snow will also be possible with the frontal passage. Cooler and unsettled weather is expected for the end of the week into the weekend, but there is high uncertainty as to how the pattern will pan out.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 530 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

MVFR CIGS will linger across the northern Black Hills into NE WY tonight, then become IFR and expand across much of western SD overnight. Rain/snow will develop Tuesday morning across NW SD. The precipitation will then change to snow as it slides southward through northeast WY and western/central SD in the afternoon and evening. This will bring widespread MVFR/IFR conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 951 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions return Wednesday, but critical fire weather conditions may develop Thursday with a sharp warm up, very dry air, and wind gusts potentially exceeding 50-60 mph.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night for SDZ024. WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night for WYZ057.