textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow continues into tonight.

- Elevated fire weather conditions return for Wednesday and Thursday.

- Unsettled weather over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Current upper air models and Water Vapor shows mild trough over the western CONUS, with southwest flow over the forecast area. Surface analysis shows a low over southeastern Wyoming with frontal boundary that passed through the region now in Kansas. Current radar shows forcing from the trough has allowed widespread light precipitation over the forecast area, with some banding in northwestern SD. Temperatures currently sit in the mid 20s over the Black Hills, while the plains range from low to upper 30s. Winds are generally light out of the north to northeast.

Upper trough will continue to slide across the region today, and precipitation will slowly progress to the east and south. Through tonight, much of the area may see light accumulations under an inch, though some banding may allow for 1-2 inches over parts of northwestern SD, and the higher elevation Black Hills could see an additional 2 to 4 inches. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the northern and Wyoming Black Hills areas through 06Z. Upper ridge builds over the western CONUS on Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a warming trend. Dry conditions and breezy winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday, and near critical fire weather on Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday could reach back into the 60s for much of the forecast area before the next disturbance effects the CWA. Another shortwave is progged to move through the region latter half of Thursday. Little moisture with this wave, however light wetting QPF may be possible over parts of the area. The larger concern will be the strong winds Thursday, as pressure gradient strengthens ahead of the front. Following the front, both NAM and GFS show potential for 6-8mb/3hr pressure rises, resulting in potential wind gusts up to 70 mph over the plains counties Thursday afternoon and evening. Have issued a High Wind Watch over all of the forecast area excluding the Black Hills from 9am to 9pm MDT Thursday.

Cooler temperatures return for the weekend, with potential for some active weather. Currently models point to another shortwave impacting the area Saturday into Sunday with potential for some accumulating snow for the region.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued At 519 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Widespread snow and low clouds continue to impact the area with MVFR to LIFR conditions in heavier bands, particularly from KSPF through KD07. Conditions will improve from northwest to southeast across the area late tonight, from 06Z-12Z, trending VFR after 12z Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 138 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions return Wednesday, but critical to near critical fire weather conditions may develop Thursday with a sharp warm up, very dry air, and wind gusts potentially exceeding 50-60 mph.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049- 072>078. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for SDZ024. WY...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for WYZ054>056-058>060. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for WYZ057.