textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hard to completely rule out a few sprinkles overnight, or an isolated shower or storm Tuesday, but overall a drier pattern is expected as NW flow becomes established.

- Seasonal temperatures most of the this week, warmer toward the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1052 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Still possible to see a few elevated showers/sprinkles overnight into Tuesday morning, especially across central and southern portions of the CWA. Continue to carry very light PoPs to cover any activity that pops up...CAMs have been inconsistent in supporting this, but a couple still hint at some development on their latest runs. Tuesday still leans drier for most, but as previously mentioned, hard to rule out a stray shower or storm, especially over the Black Hills with perhaps only a 10% chance across the rest of the central and southern CWA during the afternoon and evening. High temps tomorrow will be just a few degrees cooler than what we saw today (Monday).

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1113 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

NW upper level flow will become established through the end of the week behind today's shortwave. This will support drier weather as deeper moisture shifts south of the FA. One more round of TS expected this afternoon, with a few weaker cells possible early on the central/southern BH before deeper convection potentially develops over scentral SD INVOF of the sfc trough. Deep layer shear will increase across southern SD as the mid level speed max pushes into the region. This will allow a few strong to severe cells with large hail/damaging winds being the main threat. Things will dry out and shift east overnight. There may be a few elevated showers later tonight across the sw third as a secondary wave pushes the region. Have left some low pops for this overnight into Tue morning. Dry most places Tue. The only exception will be the central and southern BH where enough residual moisture may be in place for isold shra/ts in the afternoon. Same for Wed as a weak impulse with sufficient LL moisture may once again support a shower or storm in the afternoon there and the northeast WY Plains. Flow will transition to more westerly by the end of the week with warmer temps by Friday when widespread 90s are expected. Semi-unsettled this weekend with SW flow aloft and sufficient LL moisture in place. However,the better chances for rain look to be north of the FA as a stronger upper trough tracks across MT into ND Sunday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 557 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Thunderstorm initiation over the Black Hills is rapidly ending, with any threat of -TSRA at KRAP done by 01z/7pm at the latest. Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening out over the south-central South Dakota plains, with hail, gusty winds, and vsby drops to MVFR possible. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions across the region this evening and overnight. Tuesday, moisture will be quite limited and most of the region should hold dry, although a CAM or two are trying to fire a shower or storm off the Black Hills during the afternoon. At this time, probabilities are low enough to preclude a PROB30 for KRAP.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.