textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Arctic air resulting in dangerously cold wind chills this morning.

- Light snow/flurries possible over some areas today and tonight.

- Warming trend early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 159 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

A deep longwave trough aloft continues across much of the CONUS this morning, with persistent NW flow over the region. Surface high pressure is quickly building along the ND/MT border. Current temps are ranging from zero to 25 below. Lemmon SD is the coldest spot in the CWA at this time at -26F. Winds across NW SD are generally around 10 gusting 15 mph. This is resulting in wind chills down to 45 below...so have upgraded the Cold Weather Advisory to an Extreme Cold Warning for Harding, Perkins, and Ziebach counties. Highs today will be 5 above to 10 below zero. As high pressure builds in, winds will weaken through the morning which will limit wind chills, so the 19z expiration still looks on target. KUDX radar shows very light snow falling across western SD into NE WY. Though the snow has been falling for hours, local obs and webcams show very little accumulation, well under an inch. See no reason for a Winter Weather Advisory at any location. Light snow with minor accumulations will persist through the day and even into tonight, but many areas will just see flurries. Arctic air will remain through tonight, even while weak warm air advection commences from the west. Right now don't see a need for wind chill-related headlines since apparent temps appear to be marginal at best. Highs on Saturday will be in the teens to lower 20s, but then the next cold front will push through Saturday night, bringing the frigid air back in for Sunday. Highs will be in the single digits to lower teens. We should see another round of very light snow with the frontal passage, especially given the strength of the approaching wave. However, QPF amounts will again be light. Models still show a brief warm up for Monday as a pocket of warmer air moves in, resulting in temps in the 30s to 40s. Colder air then pushes back in for Tuesday and Wednesday. However, it looks like the stalled frontal boundary may remain near the CWA, which will moderate temps some, but leaves a great deal of uncertainty with just how cold it will be.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 159 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

MVFR/LCL IFR conditions and light snow will continue to fall across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and western SD today.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Extreme Cold Warning until noon MST today for SDZ001-002-014-078. Cold Weather Advisory until noon MST /1 PM CST/ today for SDZ012- 013-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>077. WY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon MST today for WYZ060.