textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Mild through Thursday

-Dry most places outside of NW SD today through Wed

-Critical fire weather conditions, mainly along and south of I90 today, and again possibly Wednesday and especially Thursday

-Much colder and unsettled for the end of the week with rain and snow possible by Friday for parts of the area

UPDATE

Issued at 956 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Current sfc analysis shows NW-SE oriented frontal boundary sagging across the CWA with temperatures ranging from the 40s across northwestern SD and northeastern WY to the upper 50s across southwestern into south central SD. Winds across the southern tier of the FA have diminished while humidities rise as temperatures cool off, ending critical fire wx conditions across the area.

A few strong to marginally severe storms popped up over northwestern SD this afternoon but that activity has dissipated as upper level impulse pushes to the east of the region. Regional radar shows shower activity in western ND with CAMs indicating some showers are possible across far northwestern SD through the overnight hours. In addition to the showers, forecast soundings show a fairly shallow moist layer over northwestern SD. Thus, have painted in some light PoPs and mentions for patchy fog for far northwestern SD from now until ~09z.

Upper trof pushes into the Central Plains tomorrow with the bulk of the forcing and moisture passing to the south of our CWA, though a few light showers can't be ruled out over southern SD during the day on Tuesday with diurnally driven showers over the Black Hills Tuesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Central Rockies upper trough will continue to shift east with another stronger trough dropping into the Pac NW. This will support warm and mainly dry weather through most of Thur. Dry SW flow is ongoing across the southern half of the FA. Rockies trough will semi-split with the northern portion supporting a few showers and isolated TS across the far NW this afternoon/evening. However, the rest of the FA will remain dry. Compact jetlet, associated enhanced bulk shear and marginal CAPE may support an isolated strong storm on the southern flank of expected convection today, with small hail and gusty winds. Cool front starts to progress east into the area tonight. The southern portion of the trough will shift east Tues, barely skirting the southeast third of the FA, with maybe a shower or two in southwest to scentral SD. Enough instability may be present over the BH to also support a few showers there with diurnal heating. Shower chances will linger into Wed across scentral SD, as the trough moves fairly slow across the Central Plains. Mild weather will continue through Thur as WAA ensues ahead of the next upper trough Wed, which will advect SE in westerly flow out of the Pac NW. This system will force a strong cold front into the region Thur, with strong CAA and wind expected. However, this trough will split, with limited precip amounts outside of perhaps northeast WY and maybe far SW SD, effectively leaving much of western SD with little to no precip. After a couple days below normal, things quickly then warm back up next week as the next trough drops into the western CONUS and WAA spreads to its east.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 516 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. More rain showers are expected this afternoon and evening, mainly from the Black Hills area into south central SD. Local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier precip.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1055 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Gusty southwest winds, extremely dry air, and lack of appreciable green up will support critical fire weather conditions this afternoon mainly along and south of I90. A red flag warning remains in effect into this evening. The most critical areas will be in SW SD where RH will drop to 10 percent with winds gusting to around 45 mph in the afternoon. A cool front will drop into the area tonight with winds diminishing and RH's recovering. Mild on Tue and Wed as an upper level trough skirts south of the area. However, low RH and breezy winds may support critical fire weather conditions once again on Wed and especially Thur in the same locations. A strong cold front will move into the region Thur, with chances for rain and snow Friday, mainly across northeast WY.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.