textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions continue through Monday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather at times.

- More active weather and precipitation chances return through the latter half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The latest HREF joint probabilities indicate a 40-60% chance of RH<=15%/wind gusts >=25mph for this afternoon over southern Campbell County, so have hoisted a Red Flag Warning to account.

For Monday, a strong cold front will pass through the region later in the afternoon into the evening hours. Given the warm and very dry antecedent weather (and the drought), a classic March "big fire" setup is on tap. Latest HREF joint probabilities indicate a 60-100% chance of RH<=15%/wind gusts >=25mph for northeastern WY into southwestern SD. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch to account.

UPDATE Issued at 958 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

No major changes with this forecast update. Very dry air will remain in place with poor overnight RH recovery across NE WY, the Black Hills, and the foothills (30-45 percent). Another warm and very dry day Sunday, although winds are expected to remain below critical thresholds. Chances for transient 25+ mph gusts across far southern Campbell County tomorrow, however, confidence is low that winds will be frequent enough to warrant a RFW.

Almost certainly will need a RFW for Monday as much stronger west-southwest winds will overspread the region ahead of a cold front. Very warm (70s and 80s) and dry (RH ~10-15 percent) conditions will be present through the afternoon before the frontal passage.

More active flow and precipitation chances Tuesday through the end of the week. Best chance of more widespread precipitation late Thursday through Saturday, although exact details remain uncertain given large ensemble spreads.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show mild ridging over the western CONUS, with west-northwest flow over the forecast area. Surface analysis shows a low over Wyoming, with increasing mid and high clouds moving into the FA. Winds are relatively light out of the south to southwest this afternoon, with temperatures in the 60s to mid 70s.

Warm and dry conditions will continue through Monday, as ridge influences the northern plains. Temperatures will remain 20-30F above normal for Sunday and Monday. Elevated to critical fire weather may be possible at times as the warmer temperatures combine with low RH and gusty winds. For Sunday, RH's will drop to the low to mid teens for Sunday afternoon over parts of northeastern WY into southwestern SD, however afternoon winds are only expected to see gusts 15 to 25 mph. Borderline for Red Flag conditions, and considering we currently have a Red Flag Warning in effect for today, have opted to punt any potential Sunday headlines to the evening or overnight shifts. Monday continues the low RH trend, but stronger winds returning ahead of an approaching cold front. Higher confidence in needing fire weather headlines for Monday, but cannot rule out some potential for Sunday as well.

A return to active weather is expected towards the middle of next week. Late Monday into Tuesday models show a wave traversing across southern Canada that will affect the northern plains. Little moisture with this wave, however light precipitation will be possible Monday evening into Tuesday. Another weak wave ejects over the Rockies into the central plains late Wednesday into Thursday, that may bring light precipitation over the southern half of the CWA. Longer range models have some inconsistency, but point to a stronger trough that settles into the Rockies and eventually over the plains, setting up more chances for precipitation. 12Z ECMWF now has a closed low that goes right through SD over the weekend, showing potential for widespread precipitation, while the GFS shows a weaker trough sliding through the northern plains. While confidence is still low on track and timing of any precipitation next weekend, confidence is increasing that we will at least have some active weather in that timeframe.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 1036 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 218 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Warm and dry conditions over the weekend, coupled with low RH's and gusty winds at times will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for parts of southwestern to south-central SD as well as southern Campbell county through this afternoon.

Sunday is expected to have low RH's again, however the winds will be lighter, creating near-critical fire weather conditions. Low afternoon RH's will continue into Monday as well with stronger winds returning ahead of a cold front. Moderate to high confidence fire weather headlines will be necessary for Monday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for SDZ319>326-329-332-333. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ314>318. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315.