textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog redevelops tonight into Friday morning.

- Mild and dry conditions continue through early next week, breezy at times.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 211 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Current upper air models and Water Vapor show ridge axis over the lee side of the rockies, with trough over the Great Lakes, and northwest flow over the region. 21Z surface analysis shows high pressure over southeastern North Dakota this afternoon. Satellite shows lingering fog/stratus stretching from northwest into south central SD. Winds are currently light with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to near 60.

The fog and low stratus will continue to burn off this afternoon, but is expected to redevelop tonight and continue into Friday morning. Main areas for fog are expected in and around the foothills, but will likely see some patchy fog and stratus over the western SD plains as well. Decent mixing on Friday will bring gusty southeast winds across the region, with the highest gusts (30-40mph) over the plains areas. Similar setup continues on Saturday. Little change with the temperature forecast over the weekend as the overall ridging pattern holds through the weekend. Models show a weak (but dry) shortwave passing through towards the end of the weekend, and we'll see the pattern start to change a bit early next week as the ridge shifts eastward and flattens somewhat. Next chance for any meaningful precipitation returns middle of next week, as long range models show upper trough swinging up from the four corners region into the northern plains. The GFS and ECMWF differ a bit on placement and we're still a week out, so low confidence on location, amount and p-type we might see from this disturbance.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued At 431 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Fog and low clouds leading to IFR/LIFR conditions are currently stretching from northwest to south-central South Dakota. Starting around 13/01-03z, fog and low clouds will begin to push back west towards KRAP and the Black Hills, resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions impacting KRAP until 13/17-19z. Gusty southerly winds across northeast Wyoming will begin to pick up around 13/12z, with max gusts of 30kts possible. Gusty southeasterly winds will begin to develop across western South Dakota starting around 13/14-16z, with max gusts of 35kts possible.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.