textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly again today and Sunday; light snow possible tonight.

- Much warmer on Monday.

- Dry and mild through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 331 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

Latest surface obs show wind chills have dropped to 20 to 35 below zero. Have issued a Cold Weather Advisory areawide until 11 am MST.

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Friday) Issued at 150 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

Upper level northwest flow continues this morning across the northern Great Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave crossing central/eastern SD leaving in its wake clear skies across the CWA. The next wave is swinging around Alberta into central MT. This wave will eventually reach the CWA this afternoon, bringing a return of clouds. Surface high pressure is in control over the upper Midwest, with generally light southerly winds over the area. Some weak low level warm air advection is expected this morning which will support warmer temps in the teens and low 20s. But a reinforcing shot of arctic air will surge in late this afternoon into the evening with the aformentioned upper wave. This will also bring chance pops of light snow tonight across the area...many locations seeing no more than flurries. Upslope enhancement across the northern Black Hills may result in an inch or two of dry powder. Wind chills are expected to drop to -10 to -30F, late tonight into Sunday morning, but at this time wind chill-related advisory thresholds are not expected to be met. Sunday will be another chilly day, with highs in the single digits to lower teens. At least, with a strong 1040mb high sitting over the Dakotas, it won't feel as cold with sunny skies and light winds. Strong warm air advection will begin Sunday night and continue into Monday, bringing an impressive overnight warm up. Highs Monday will be in the 30s and 40s...maybe even hitting 50 degrees in the eastern foothills of the Black Hills. This is 30-40 degrees warmer in 24 hours. Models are still showing a cold front crossing the Dakotas on Monday night but latest trend keeps the frontal boundary stalled over the CWA or even farther east over central SD. This would keep temperatures near seasonal averages for late January...temps ranging from the 30s to the 40s. Right now generally dry weather is expected next week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Night) Issued At 150 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions expected this morning. A cold front will cross the area late this afternoon into the evening, bringing MVFR conditions with light snow. Some local IFR conditions are possible in the Black Hills area.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078. WY...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for WYZ054>060.