textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Mild and dry into next week, breezy at times

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Monday) Issued at 1019 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

Blocking pattern will persist as the western NOAM ridge continues to support mild and dry weather into next week over the region. Weak near daily impulses will support cool fronts through the flow, which will keep high temps in the 50s/60s for most days. A few low 70s may be possible at times. The strongest of the fronts will be a backdoor cool front Wed, which will mainly affect eastern areas of the FA. Upper impulse is moving through the region today and supporting a sfc trough into the area. Winds will be breezy behind the trough with gusts over 40 mph expected on portions of the SD Plains, esp the NW SD Plains into western central. A stronger Central Canadian upper trough will dive south out of Canada Wed and support a backdoor cool front into the region. The only impact from this system will be cooler highs over the eastern half for Thursday. This cool down will be short-lived as the western NOAM ridge quickly rebuilds into the region, supporting a very mild and dry weekend. Mild and dry weather will persist into next week. However, an upper trough is expected to dig into the western CONUS next week, and will eventually shift east. This will support a transition to unsettled conds later in the week, with cooler weather as well. Much uncertainly among models and guidance per this troughs evolution and track, with low confidence in forecast details beyond next Wed.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued At 413 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty northwest winds will diminish after 01-03z at KRAP and KGCC. Breezy west-southwest winds will persist across portions of northwestern SD from K2WX to KD07 tonight through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.