textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Low impact mild and dry weather through Monday with high temperatures increasing to 15-25F above normal - Southwest flow may bring unsettled weather Monday night into next week

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Tuesday) Issued at 1042 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

17z surface analysis had weak high over the MO river valley with a weak trough from central MT into eastern CO. Water vapour loop had weak shortwave moving into the northern Rockies with another wave over the four corners area ahead of upper low near CA. Main effect has been some mid/high clouds over the CWA with dry low levels per in progress 18z KUNR sounding.

After weak shortwaves pass through the northern Plains tonight, westerly upper low becomes entrenched through the weekend with low level warm air advection assisted by weak downslope flow. High temperatures will approach 15-25F above normal by Sunday/Monday. Relatively high amounts of sunshine are expected save for some mid/high clouds at times. Upper flow turns southwesterly for next week as upper trough is carved out over the western CONUS. Periodic disturbances sure to pulse through the region, but none of them look particularly adept at pulling in appreciable moisture. QPF amounts uncertain with the chance of >0.10" QPF during any 24-hour period <50%, with best focus on northwestern SD. Each disturbance will try to bring in a bit colder air, but ensemble temperature spreads next week widen leading to lower confidence, especially with no apparent good source of colder air.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 403 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.