textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably mild for northeastern WY into southwestern SD through most of this week

- Low chances (20-40%) for light precip in the latter half of the week

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1157 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery shows the CWA under northwest flow. At the sfc, a warm front sits draped across central SD. Behind the front, temperatures have warmed into the 30s to 40s with northwest winds picking up. These gusty winds will persist through the rest of the afternoon with gusts of 40-45 mph (a few spots may gust up to 50 mph) over parts of northwestern SD.

Upper wave will drop south from central Canada and move into ND/MN. Not expecting any precip but Arctic air will surge back into the region pushing into the CWA from the northeast. Temps across northwestern and south central SD will drop into the single digits to near zero with temperatures over the hills and northeastern WY slightly "warmer" in the teens.

Frontal boundary/baroclinic zone will stall over the CWA for much of this week with colder temperatures over northwestern into south central SD and warmer temperatures across northeastern WY into southwestern SD. Forecast confidence decreases towards the latter half of the week as upper ridging begins to breakdown and the Northern Plains finds itself under the influence of the active northern stream. Several waves moving across the flow progged to impact the region with the first wave affecting the region on Thursday. There's not a lot of model-to-model or run-to-run consensus in the deterministic guidance for this system so can't say for certain exact impacts (if any) but so far it looks like there may be some chances for light snow across the area with the usual upslope spots in the northern Black Hills seeing the best chances for accumulations.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 443 PM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

Breezy northwest winds will diminish early this evening. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.

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