textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Southwest/south central South Dakota: Light snow continues tonight. Highest accumulations (< 2 inches) near the Nebraska border.

- Breezy west winds (gusts 35-45 mph) this weekend.

- Warm (above average) temperatures Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 1239 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Upper level analysis shows a quasi-split flow pattern across the forecast area. First, there is a northern tier trough positioned over eastern Montana, which is clipping northwest South Dakota. Secondly, a closed low and trough is located over eastern Utah and western Colorado, resulting in southwest flow across southwestern South Dakota. At the surface, high pressure is building in from the west and there is a weak trough over the northern Rockies associated with a surface low in Alberta. Latest radar (and surface observations) indicate snow has ended across northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota, but continues across much of southwestern South Dakota and the Black Hills. Snowfall amounts reported so far have been up to an inch, mainly on grassy surfaces and in heavier bands, due to warm ground temperatures on pavement. The heaviest snow has fallen near the Nebraska border in southwestern South Dakota.

For this afternoon, light snow will continue, mainly east of a line from Faith to the Black Hills. The highest snowfall will fall over southern and eastern Oglala Lakota County, southern Jackson and Bennett Counties where an inch or two of snow is possible. Gusty north winds of 15 to 20 mph will accompany the snowfall, causing localized areas of restricted visibility. However, the strongest winds will be located across southern Meade, Pennington County Plains, Custer County Plains and northern Oglala Lakota County, where north winds of 20-30mph and gust of 40-50mph will be common. This area is included in a wind advisory through 4pm this afternoon.

For tonight, light snow will will continue to push east, mainly east of a line from Philip SD to Pine Ridge SD. Additional accumulations up to an inch are possible in the heavier bands. Winds will decrease and clouds will quickly move out of the area as the snow moves east. Temperatures will drop into the teens and 20s, with the coldest readings occurring in areas with snow on the ground.

There will be a warming trend this weekend as the northern stream trough strengthens east of the area causing the southern upper low to be pushed into the Baja, resulting in northwesterly flow across the forecast area. Temperatures on Saturday will warm into the 50s for most areas, with some 40s in the Hills and low 60s along the eastern foothills and adjacent plains. Sunday will be warmer with highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s, though the higher hills will be colder. With the transition to northwest flow, gusty westerly winds will develop on Saturday and then again on Sunday across portions of northeast Wyoming, northwestern and southwestern South Dakota. Westerly winds of 22-29mph and gusts of 45-50mph will be common, especially on Sunday.

Upper flow turns more zonal by the beginning of the week, with several impulses embedded in the flow and a cold front on Monday. This will result in chances for precipitation for the first half of the week. By mid-week the flow is more northwesterly with Pacific moisture streaming into the region and another cold front moves through on Friday. This will again increase precipitation chances for the end of the week and next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued At 457 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions continue over central to south central SD as precipitation moves through SD. Those conditions will improve from west to east this evening. Gusty NW winds will continue into the evening hours, with winds becoming light and turning west- southwest overnight. Expect VFR conditions at the TAF sites through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1239 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to return this weekend as temperatures rebound into the 60s to low 70s with relative humidity values dropping to around 20 percent. Breezy westerly winds will develop on Saturday and then again on Sunday across portions of northeast Wyoming, northwestern and southwestern South Dakota. Westerly winds of 22-29mph and gusts of 35-45mph will be common, especially on Sunday. However, the locations where the lowest relative humidity and strongest winds will coincide will be the same areas that received the highest QPF and snowfall today. Therefore no fire weather headlines will be posted at this time.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.