textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather through much of this week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Water vapor and upper air models show southwest flow over the region, as upper ridge sits to our east and an upper trough is located over the southwestern CONUS this afternoon. 18Z surface analysis shows a frontal boundary stretching from northeastern SD down into central WY, mostly through our forecast area now. Satellite shows clear skies over the forecast area. Winds are breezy out of the northeast, with temperatures this afternoon in the mid to upper 60s.

Slightly cooler temperatures today and Monday (though still stick above normal for Oct), given frontal passage over the area. Return flow will make for breezy southeasterly winds early Monday morning throughout the day. Tuesday will see the ridge to our east build a bit, prompting warming temperatures back into the 70s briefly. Another (dry) front passes through Wednesday with some breezy northwest wind attachment behind it, and cooler temperatures again. That is short lived though, as ridge balloons up once again, bringing temperatures near 80 for some areas Thursday and Friday. We may see elevated fire weather conditions at times, but forecast afternoon RH's only dip into the 20-40 percent range. Next chance for any meaningful precipitation comes towards the weekend. Models show an upper low over the southwest CONUS late in the week developing into a wave and sliding northeast into the northern plains over the weekend. Still far enough out that there's low confidence in timing or location of any precipitation chances.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1115 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty southeast winds will develop over northeastern WY tonight, spreading into northwestern SD Monday morning.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.