textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue - Mild and dry through Wednesday with gusty west/northwest winds at times - Strong winds possible Thursday and Friday as a couple of mostly dry cold fronts move through

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 118 PM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

20z surface analysis had warm front over the eastern Dakotas with plenty of solar insolation over the CWA melting the snow from Lemmon to Winner per 0.5km visible satellite matinee. Mild temperatures area-wide with very localized Red Flag conditions near KSPF/KRCA given very dry air in place/marginally gusty winds. Water vapour loop had upper level ridge over the western CONUS with northwest flow aloft over the northern Plains.

Tonight through Wednesday, northwest flow aloft will continue as western CONUS upper ridge moves little. A series of moisture- starved weak shortwaves move across central Canada into the Midwest. First one tonight/early Monday with some high clouds, but then a better one for Tuesday, pushing a back door cold front into the northeastern reaches of the CWA. Pressure gradient will be rather tight. Lower tropospheric neutral to weak warm air advection expected Monday, but switching to weak cold air advection per back door cold front. Thus, best potential for deepest mixing will be Tuesday, taking advantage of 35-45kt 800mb wind speeds. May need a Wind Advisory for Tuesday (NBM 50-80% chance >45mph gusts) with lesser chances Monday (NBM <25% chance >45 mph gusts). HREF even less excited about Monday. Weaker winds foreseen Wednesday. Low PoPs warranted Tuesday, focusing on the northern Black Hills, but not much expected. Temperatures will be near guidance, except for the eastern foothills where above guidance painted.

Thursday/Friday, upper level trough rapidly moves into the northern plains. It will push an initial cold front through early Thursday and a secondary front Friday. Both fronts will have moderate/strong cold air advection and pressure gradients. Pattern and probabilistic guidance favorable for strong winds on the western SD plains. >50% chance >55mph gusts Thursday and 50-80% chance >55mph gusts Friday. ECMWF EFI 60-80th percentile gusts for Thursday and 80-90th for Friday. Temperatures will be much colder by Friday with some patchy snow, especially for the Black Hills but moisture will be limited.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 945 PM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions expected through 06Z Monday night. Gusty southwest to westerly surface winds 15G25kts will be common through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 118 PM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

Very localized Red Flag Conditions this afternoon near KSPF/KRCA will quickly end by sunset. Dry weather and above normal temperatures will bring elevated fire weather conditions through Tuesday. Monday, minimum relative humidities will drop to the 20s over the southwest half of the area, rising to the 40s/50s for Tuesday/Wednesday. A back door cold front will bring northwest winds at 20-30G50mph on the open plains Tuesday afternoon. Wetting precipitation is unlikely.

Elevated fire weather concerns return Thursday/Friday as two mostly dry cold fronts bring strong northwest winds and colder temperatures.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.