textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry through the weekend with temperatures trending warmer for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

Upper level analysis shows upper trough axis centered from the Upper Midwest through the Southern Plains. Further upstream, water vapor imagery shows closed upper low moving onshore across northern CA and OR/WA. Diffuse surface high pressure over the northern Rockies into Northern Plains with brisk NW surface flow across the forecast area. Lingering low clouds across south-central SD will erode this afternoon with widespread sunshine today. Winds will diminish through the day as the surface low pulls eastward. Western upper low is forecast to eject into the Southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday, although precipitation will remain east the area. Generally dry weather will persist through the week with seasonable temperatures. Dry clipper system will push through the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday, although wind potential has diminished considerably from previous model runs. Western ridge will build Sunday into early next week. Temperatures are trending 5-15F warmer than normal Sunday through Tuesday. Ensemble guidance keeps the area dry through at least mid-week next week before more active western flow returns by end of next week, although there are no major precipitation signals thus far.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued At 444 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period.

Gusty winds will diminish this evening, much calmer winds for tonight into tomorrow.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.