textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions for portions of northeastern Wyoming through south-central South Dakota Sunday afternoon - Mild and dry through Monday with highs 15-25F above normal - Couple of disturbances will bring increasing chances for precipitation Tuesday through Thursday along with cooler temperatures

UPDATE

Issued at 840 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Minor changes to the previous forecast. Bumped up winds the next few days as deep mixing can be expected per warm temps and lack of snow cover. Mild weather will persist through Tuesday as downstream ridging is ongoing per the deep western CONUS trough. Expect highs the next 3 days to be 15 to 25 degrees above seasonal norms. Cold front will move through Tues, with strong gusty winds expected and adv level winds likely on the SD Plains. Delayed precip chances until Tues night when better forcing arrives. However, ensemble spreads per QPF amounts remain quite high later in the week, with a higher potential for lower amounts given split flow tendencies.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 1244 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

19z surface analysis had weak flow over the CWA with a couple of weak troughs. Some high clouds floating by. Water vapour matinee had zonal split flow over the CONUS with a developing upper trough off the west coast. Effect of the upper trough and fire weather are the main concerns this afternoon.

Tonight/Sunday, weak shortwave moving across the US/Canadian border will push a warm front through the CWA late tonight into Sunday. Behind it, deep boundary layer mixing is expected as 3-5mb/3hr pressure falls ramp up over eastern SD. Gusty westerly downslope winds are foreseen, especially across the southern third of the CWA with the chance of wind gusts >25mph 60-90%. Temperatures will be 15-25F above normal per lower tropospheric thermal ridge/dry air in place.

Monday, upper trough moves onshore into the western CONUS turning upper flow southwesterly over the northern Plains. This will sustain the unseasonably warm temperatures with gusty southerly winds at times.

Tuesday, western CONUS upper trough slings a compact shortwave into the northern plains with nice QG-forcing bubble. Surface low winds up over northwest SD, pushing a cold front through the area later in the day. Much of the initial synoptic lift will be wasted on saturation. As the low propels a cold front through the area, low level frontogenesis should be sufficient for a band of QPF over the northwest half of the CWA. Chance of >0.25" QPF for the plains <20%, but ~50% for the northern Black Hills, which may lead to some light snow accumulations. Looks pretty windy behind the cold front with magnitude still uncertain but headlines certainly possible.

Wednesday, shortwave ridging expected, but still quite windy per gradient. Thursday, second shortwave moves through with much lower condensation pressure deficits, so QG-forcing/frontogenesis will translate to better chances for (mostly) snow for the CWA with the best chance for a few inches over the Black Hills (~50% chance >0.25" QPF). Rest of the week looks unsettled as the upper trough/cyclonic flow move through the northern Plains.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued At 424 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1244 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for parts of the area Monday and Tuesday. Deep mixing Sunday will drop minimum relative humidities into the teens from southern Campbell County Wyoming through south-central South Dakota. Gusty west winds will develop, reaching 12 to 25 mph with gusts from 25 to 35 mph at times. Minimum relative humidities Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper teens to 20s over parts of northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Gusty southwest to southeast winds are expected Monday and Tuesday, but quickly switch to the northwest (and quite gusty) behind a cold front later Tuesday. Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above normal Sunday and Monday. A disturbance will bring increasing chances for precipitation Tuesday through Thursday, which will quell elevated fire weather conditions as temperatures cool. Best chance for wetting precipitation will be over the northern Black Hills, and then maybe getting close on the plains for Thursday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for SDZ321-322-325-326- 332>335. WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ315-317.