textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry with near to slightly above average temperatures this weekend

- Precipitation chances increase late Sunday night into Monday

- Unsettled weather pattern expected for much of next week

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Friday) Issued at 124 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

09Z upper level analysis has broad trof crossing south central Canada and the far Northern Great Plains. Skies are mostly cloudy across the forecast area, with a band of light rain showers crossing northwestern SD. At the surface, a cold front is currently shifting south across northwestern SD, with Canadian high pressure soon to follow. Temperatures at 2pm are in the 30s and 40s, with west to northwest winds.

Upper level pattern will shift back to ridging this weekend as Canadian high pressure settles over the Dakotas. Dry and mild conditions are expected today and Sunday, with light winds.

Late Sunday, an upper trof/weak closed low will lift out of the Four Corners region through the Central Plains. Best upper dynamics remain south of the area, but surface low and mid level trof will cross the area on Monday bringing good chances for some light rain. Best amounts at this time look to be from the Black Hills south and east, with up to a tenth of an inch of moisture. At this time, the system is fairly warm, and any possible snowfall should be restricted to the highest elevations of the Black Hills.

Weather pattern remains fairly unsettled for the remainder of next week. Weak energy in west to southwest upper flow will cross the area at times, bringing very light precipitation chances. Temperatures next week will be near seasonal averages.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 1026 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will persist at the terminal sites through the valid forecast period. Some MVFR cigs will be found across northwest SD through 16/00Z before dissipating.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.