textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light accumulating snowfall across northwestern South Dakota and the northern Black Hills tomorrow. The northern Black Hills could see accumulations of up to 1 to 2 inches

- Strong winds tomorrow Wednesday with gusts of 50-60 mph across northwestern into south central SD on Wednesday.

- Still a lot of uncertainty in how cold it will get this weekend

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1254 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Current upper air analysis and water vapor imagery depicts trough axis extending from the Hudson Bay region into the mid west and southeastern US. A high amplitude ridge sits just off the west coast of the US. The Northern Plains sits under active northwest flow with a 70-90kt jet at H300 above the CWA. Temperatures range from the teens to low 30s. Breezy winds have developed across western SD with gusts of 30 to 40 mph over northwestern SD.

Our active pattern continues with another clipper system moving through the region tomorrow. The sfc low will pass through the CWA bringing another round of gusty winds and some snow. While the winds aren't looking as strong as previous recent events, pressure rises of 2-5 mb/3hr could still support gusts of 50 to 55 mph across southwestern SD, the foothills, and adjacent plains (NBM probs of 30- 50% for gusts >50 mph). In addition to the winds, there's enough moisture and forcing to support some light snow across northwestern into south central SD with upslope snow over the northern Black Hills. Amounts look fairly light, generally less than an inch over the plains and upslope enhancement supporting slightly higher amounts of 1 to 2 inches over the Northern Black Hills. The gusty winds could cause some localized blowing snow with associated reductions in visibility and minor travel impacts across northwestern into south central SD.

Stronger shortwave/clipper and attendant cold front moves through on Wednesday. Strong pressure rises of 4-6 mb/3hr and 30-50 kt winds at H850-H700 will support gusts of 50+ mph at the sfc (NBM probs still depict a 50-80% chance for >50mph gusts over northwestern SD). Chances for precip with this system still look pretty low as strongest lift and moisture will be displaced to the northeast of our neck of the woods. However, any accumulated snow in northwestern SD from Tuesday's event could be blown around with the winds Wednesday and cause minor impacts (PWSSI depicts 40% chance for minor impacts over northern Haakon County with 20-30% chance for minor impacts along the I-90 corridor). Not anticipating any winter weather headlines at this time but wind headlines may be needed in future forecast updates.

Arctic airmass moves into the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday. The CWA will be on the western edge of this airmass with the core of the coldest air to the north and east. Slight changes in the location of the sfc high will have a large impact on how cold it'll get this weekend. Most recent deterministic runs have trended warmer with the Arctic high moving further east of the CWA as it's displaced by a shortwave. In terms of precip, looking at chances for some light snow across the Black Hills into southwestern and south central SD on Friday as the shortwave grazes the region but as of now, not expecting much, if any, accumulation with this system.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1018 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the terminals through the valid TAF period. Winds have diminished and should remain around 10 knots across the terminals. Winds are expected to increase tomorrow out of the west-northwest with winds between 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible at the KGCC terminal.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.