textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Hot Sunday with highs in the 90s and lower 100s on the Plains

-Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Sunday into Monday

-Strong cold front will bring breezy weather Monday with much cooler weather for Tuesday

-Smoke from western wildfires expected Sunday night into Monday

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Friday) Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Western CONUS upper ridge will shift east into the Northern Plains and support hot and dry weather as a stronger upper trough moves across the northern CONUS. This upper trough will support a strong cold front into the region Monday, bringing a brief mid week cool down before the heat returns. Upper level ridge will continue to tilt into the region today ahead of a strong southern Canadian upper trough. This will will support WAA as the ll thermal ridge pushes east. Haze from modified wildfire smoke will continue to impact the area, supporting elevated pollution levels. Sfc trough will advect SE and settle into the region Sunday. Breezy southerly winds can be expected ahead the trough with winds shifting NW behind the trough. CAA will be delayed until early Monday morning as the main cold front will push into the FA. Hence, hot temps still expected Sunday even behind the trough. Expect the hottest temps in southwest through central SD where 100-110 will be expected for highs. Heat adv area still looks good as dry air will limit the highest heat index readings to this area. Cold front will move through early Monday with winds gusting over 40 mph through much of Monday morning on the SD Plains. Winds will decrease through afternoon as the main pressure rise bubble exits the FA. A batch of thick low level smoke is expected to push through the region behind the front Sunday night into Monday per HRRR/RAP forecasts. This may impact visibility esp Monday morning. Conds should improve through Monday as the ll trajectories indicate a more northerly airmass origin. Still could see a few showers and TS across mainly scentral SD late Monday night as the jet entrance region will overlap with a weak impulse passing to the south of the FA, supporting potential elevated convection. This has been trending more south in recent model runs. Temps will fall into the 40s and 50s Monday night with a few 30s expected in portions of the higher Black Hills. Highs Tues will be 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms mainly in the 70s, with 60s in the Black Hills. Western ridge will rebuild behind the deep upper low slowly pushing east across interior Canada. This will support a warm up as SE LL return flow ensues. Expect highs to be back in the 90s by Thur. Increasing LL moisture will support isolated TS chances by Wed as weak impulses will advect through the region in NW flow.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 1134 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for SDZ013-014-026- 027-030>032-041>044-072>077. WY...None.