textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably mild for northeastern WY into southwestern SD through most of this week

- Increasing chances of light snow in the latter half of the week

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Monday) Issued at 248 AM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

Water vapor imagery shows upper ridging moving onshore the Pac Coast while NW flow continues across the central CONUS. A series of upper waves are crossing the northern/central Rockies, bringing mid/highs clouds to the intermountain west into western portions of the CWA. Surface obs show high pressure centered over Sask extending into the Dakotas. The frontal boundary is draped over the CWA with temps ranging from the 20s over NE WY to single digits over NW SD. Dry weather will continue today, with highs ranging from the low 40s over NE WY to lower/mid 20s over central SD. Varying levels of mid/high clouds will remain today as 750mb warm advection/weak isentropic lift jogs the baroclinic zone eastward toward central SD. Precip is not expected today nor Wednesday. With the front stalled across central SD, highs tomorrow will be similar to today, but the Black Hills area will be slightly warmer...upper 30s to 40s. There will be little movement to the upper level pattern as a Rex Block sets up over the Pac NW/northern Rockies. Models are still trying to gain consistency with solutions for the second half of the week, but it has been trending snowier. Strong high pressure will again drop down into the Dakotas Wed night into Thu, pushing the front back westward into the CWA as a backdoor cold front. Low level frontal forcing combining with mid/upper level support from a shortwave would bring increasing chances of snowfall to the area. As of now it looks like two rounds of light snow...one on Thursday, then a second round on Friday as a another wave crosses the region. Unsure of snow amounts at this time, but best guess is this will be up to 3 inches over a 48-hour period.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 248 AM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.

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