textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog will develop across western SD tonight.

- Breezy northwest winds across northwestern and southwestern SD Monday

- Above average temperatures and mostly dry weather through next week

SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK

Currently Wednesday and the remainder of the forecast is dry and mild. Temps will generally be about 20 degrees warmer than seasonal norms. Thursday brings the week's warmest temps with the negatively tilted *ridge* overrunning this CWA. Highs in the 60s should threaten some warm high records and warm min temp records are also in danger.

Confidence in the extended forecast is lower than normal due to the proximity of the polar jet and its attendant baroclinic zone in eastern South Dakota. Any unforeseen wiggle of the jet could bring drastic changes in the temperature forecast. That's the bad news. The good news is that the GFS, outlier as it was, has backed away from it's cold solution for next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1029 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Patchy fog is expected to develop across the western SD plains between 02/10Z and 02/14Z, resulting in localized MVFR cigs/vsbys. Otherwise VFR conds are expected throughout the valid TAF period with gusty northwest winds developing late in the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.

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