textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow will taper off this afternoon in the Black Hills area.

- Very cold tonight over northwestern into south central SD where wind chills could drop to 10 to 20 below.

- Another round of wintry precip moves through the area Saturday with snow changing over to a freezing rain.

- Above average temperatures and mostly dry weather returns Sunday into early next week.

SUNDAY and BEYOND.

Upper level ridging envelops the western CONUS with EC/GFS members suggesting the development of a pattern that is evocative of a Rex Block. Neither forecast system keeps the block in place, but were that to happen, this area could be in for a longer stretch of warm and dry weather. As it stands, the ridge is *just* northeast enough to let western South Dakota get a taste of the spring-like temperatures such a feature can bring. But being so close to its margins leaves confidence lower. For example, a shortwave riding through on Tuesday will bring a chance (20-40%) of mixed precip and a brief hiccup in our warming trend. A stronger wave could push this area out from under the comforting temps of the upper level ridging.

Regardless, the forecast remains warm after tonight with a few 60s forecast by late next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued At 429 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected. A clipper system will bring some light mixed precip to the region Saturday. Some local MVFR conds are possible in snow. Gusty NW winds will develop in the afternoon behind the front.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM MST Saturday for SDZ001-002-012>014-032-072-073-078.