textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread elevated to near critical fire wx conditions tomorrow across northeastern WY into western SD. Critical fire wx conditions expected across portions of northeastern WY, the southern Black Hills, and much of the western SD plains.

- Strong winds will develop across portions of northeastern WY and southwestern SD late tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. Gusts of up to 60 mph possible.

- Light rain/snow showers Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Minimal snow accumulations (generally less than an inch) expected across the Black Hills.

- Storm moving through late Wed/Thu will bring next chance for accumulating snow to much of the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 455 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Given increasing confidence in wind speeds, have upgraded most of the high wind watch, adding northern Campbell County. In addition, given expected downslope flow over the BH, have added the northern Foothills zone to a wind adv. It is quite possible that this zone and the Colony zone in far NE WY could see gusts over 60 mph. Also expanded the Red Flag warning north across NE WY and far western SD given RFTI values and expected winds. Cut pops Tues as well given exceptionally dry BL.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 108 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Current upper air analysis depicts trof axis just off the west coast with west to southwest flow over the Northern Plains. Upper level moisture is contributing to scattered high cloud cover over northeastern WY into western SD. Sfc stations across the CWA are reporting light and variable winds with temps in the 50s to low 60s.

Lead shortwave will cross the Northern Plains tomorrow with sfc cyclone developing over MT and the Dakotas. Trailing cold front will move over the region through the day. Gusty westerly winds will develop ahead of the front before shifting to the northwest as the front passes through. Forecast BUFKIT soundings over portions of northeastern WY into southwestern SD show 50-60kt winds at the top of the boundary layer with the potential for these gusts to mix to the sfc. Confidence in these gusts are highest across southwestern SD where the NBM probs show a 50-70% chance for gusts to exceed 60 mph. Confidence is lower elsewhere and due to this, will hold off on upgrading the High Wind Watch. However, with the expected warm temps, low RHs, and strong westerly winds ahead of the front, feel confident enough to upgrade fire wx watch to Red Flag Warning. (See Fire Wx Discussion)

Secondary shortwave takes on negative tilt as it pivots into the Northern Plains, at the sfc a lee cyclone develops over eastern CO and moves into NE. Should have enough moisture advection and large scale forcing for precip over parts of the CWA with temps cold enough for snow. In terms of QPF, there's still a wide range of deterministic solutions and run-to-run consistency is lacking. Minor changes in the low's track could have big impacts on the amount of precip (and thus, how much snow) we get from this event. LREF ensemble and NBM guidance both have 25-75th percentile spreads of up to 0.1 to 0.25" QPF over northeastern WY into western SD.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 424 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. LLWS may develop around 10z producing 60KT winds at 2 to 3 km, mainly over northeastern WY up through northwestern SD.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 108 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Elevated fire wx conditions will develop this afternoon as RHs drop to the upper teens to low 20s and afternoon temperatures rise to the upper 50s to low 60s. Light winds should prevent widespread critical fire wx conditions from developing.

Widespread near critical to critical fire wx conditions will develop tomorrow afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Winds will increase out of the west through the morning hours, especially over northeastern WY into western SD where widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected with some areas in southwestern SD gusting up to 60 mph. Temperatures ahead of the front will warm to the mid 50s to mid 60s with humidities dropping to the mid teens to low 20s. With the recent dry weather, the strong winds, above average temperatures, and low humidities, have high confidence in widespread critical fire wx conditions developing across northeastern WY into the Black Hills and the western SD plains. Therefore, have upgraded the Fire Wx Watch to a Red Flag Warning.

Cold front will move across the area later tomorrow morning into the afternoon with winds decreasing through the evening hours. Light rain/snow showers may develop as the front passes through, chances for wetting rains will be low, though some spots in the Black Hills could see some minor snow accumulations (generally less than an inch).

Cooler weather will round out the week with a chance for snow late Wednesday into Thursday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ to 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ Tuesday for SDZ320>327-329-331>335. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for SDZ025. High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for SDZ027-029- 041-075. WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ314>317. High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ054-055- 058-059.