textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold today with morning flurries

- Windy and warm on Monday

- Dry and mild conditions expected much of this week

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Impressive longwave trough continues across much of the CONUS bringing a major winter storm to central and eastern portions of the country. Across the northern Plains, water vapor shows a shortwave rounding the backside of the broad trough over southeast MT...and a stronger wave just entering in north central MT. Surface obs show a cold front has finished crossing the CWA, with temps dropping into the single digits, above and below zero. Current wind chills are ranging from -5 to -30F which, across NW SD, is nearing Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Given how marginal the wind chills are, will not issue an advisory for now, but will reassess later in the shift and issue if temps drop below guidance. KUDX radar shows flurries across the Black Hills area into NE WY, and will continue into the morning hours after sunrise. Drier air will move in today behind the nearby upper wave, bringing in clear skies. Arctic air over the area will limit temps to the single digits to just below zero. Tonight...warm air advection will quickly ramp up, with 700mb temps rising 10-12C within 6 hours. Min temps across NE WY and far western SD will likely be reached in the evening hours as the warmer air works its way in. Gusty downsloping winds across the northern/eastern Black Hills and foothills will warm temps into the 20s before sunrise. Highs on Monday will be 30-45 degrees warmer than on Sunday. A prefrontal trough is expected to cross the CWA Monday morning, with breezy NW winds behind it. Gusts may reach as high as 40 to 50 mph across parts of the SD plains. Backdoor front is expected to move into central SD Monday night before stalling, then moving back eastward on Tuesday. Temps near seasonal average are expected Tuesday through the rest of the week. Generally dry weather is also expected, but can't rule out some light precip in the second half of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued At 241 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Flurries will continue for a few hours after sunrise across the Black Hills region and NE WY. MVFR conditions are expected where the snowfall remains and along the SD/NE border. Drier air will move in today, bringing VFR conditions for the rest of the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 241 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Monday across portions of the plains. Much warmer and drier air will move into the region bringing gusty west to northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph and gusts up to 50 mph and minimum relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent in addition to the lack of snow cover. Will monitor for potential headlines.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.