textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain tonight into Tuesday for SD/NE border, minor rainfall totals

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions return Tuesday afternoon, with the greatest concern Wednesday

- Another system late week may bring much needed precipitation to the region

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1251 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Current upper-air water vapor analysis depicts split-flow over western/central CONUS. A shortwave trough is situated over ID/MT/ northwest WY between the stronger northern flow (general northwest flow) and the weaker southern flow (general west-east flow) over Four Corners and into the central Great Plains. WV imagery indicates mostly cloudy skies with mid- to low-level clouds and light precipitation moving across southwest and south-central SD. A trace to 0.08 inches has accumulated in the regions of precipitation. Surface observations show temperatures mainly in the 30s and 40s, with a few 50s in northeast WY where there is less cloud cover. Webcams currently show light rain showers passing through Fall River/Oglala Lakota/Mellette counties. Winds are generally light and variable across much of the forecast region, with southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph present along the SD/NE state line.

Tonight into Tuesday, precipitation will continue to move across the SD/NE state line, before diminishing Tuesday afternoon. Rainfall totals across the southern half of the forecast region will likely range from a trace to >0.1 inches (~70 to 45 percent chance, respectively, via NBM-CONUS), with locally higher amounts possible. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s, with some areas reaching the low 60s. Cloud cover will decrease throughout the morning, leading to decreasing RH values throughout the day, with the lowest values (around 20 percent) across northeast WY, the foothills of the Black Hills, and locations that did not receive precipitation. As drier, warmer air moves back into the region, elevated fire weather conditions will return. However, winds will be lighter, but this does not mean dried fuels will not burn.

As the shortwave shifts off to the east on Wednesday, ridging and high pressure will build over the forecast region with troughing over WA/OR/northern CA. Wednesday will be the best chance for near- critical fire weather conditions, with the possibility of a RFW if winds are strong enough and align with RH values. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s for most, with some of the SD plains reaching 70 degrees. Minimum RH values will drop into the upper teens to low 20s, with breezy southwest winds gusting to 30+ mph for portions of northeast WY and southwestern SD. The combination of warm, dry air and gusty winds will result in the potential for a RFW; however, the winds and RH values may not align perfectly.

Thursday into Friday will be see the trough deepen over western CONUS, with a few disturbances crossing the Rockies. Current model runs are leaning towards the southern disturbance going through the central/southern Great Plains, resulting in rain and thunderstorms for locations south of the forecast region, while the northern disturbance produces a CO surface-low that shots off to the northeast, brining the potential for rain, mixed precipitation, and snow to the forecast region. Things can quickly change, however, as a number of chances for precipitation this winter have resulted in next to nothing. We will keep our finger's crossed for some much needed precipitation.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1019 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Rain/snow showers will be possible across SW SD to south central SD. While some transient MVFR conditions are possible in heavier showers, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the forecast area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1251 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday as warm temperatures in the mid to upper 60s (possibly 70 degrees) combine with minimum RH values dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s. Breezy southwest winds, with gusts up to 30 mph across northeast WY and southwestern SD, will enhance fire spread potential. While a Red Flag Warning is not certain at this time, conditions will need to be monitored closely as winds and RH values may briefly align.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.