textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible tonight across northwestern South Dakota.

- Warming trend and dry through the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Closed upper low evident in water vapor imagery is centered over southern MN/northern IA. Further upstream, another closed low is pushing into the Four Corners region. A surface low is centered across northern WI/west-central MN with a secondary trough axis stretching back into SD. Low clouds and spotty light showers are pushing through south-central SD along the northwestern periphery of the upper low; coverage and amounts will be limited. Precipitation chances taper off quickly this afternoon as the low pulls away. Patchy fog is possible across northwestern SD into north- central SD tonight after 06-08z; CAMs continue to show potential (REFS prob of visibility < 3 miles ~50-70%) for widespread fog in this area.

Mild and dry weather continues through the week with even warmer weather for the weekend into early next week as upper ridge builds. Looking at high temperatures Saturday through Monday of 10F+ above normal. Expect elevated fire weather conditions given warm and dry weather coupled with breezy winds through Monday. A quick moving clipper will drop through the region late Friday with breezy NW winds Saturday across northwestern SD (gusts 25 to 35 mph). No precipitation on the horizon, at least through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1022 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.