textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Cool front will knock temps down some Tue through Thur, however it will remain mild and dry

-Warming back up Friday and Saturday

-Pattern change next week will bring much cooler weather with some chances for precip

UPDATE

Issued at 922 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Cool front will move through tomorrow, supporting a slightly cooler day most areas, but still above normal. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s most areas. Flatter flow aloft will support cooler weather Wed and Thur as another backdoor cool front moves through, with highs mainly in the 70s. Staunch upper level ridging ahead of the digging western CONUS upper trough will support very warm weather Fri and Sat before a strong cold front moves through and significantly cools things down for next week. Chances for precip will also return next week. However, large model spreads remain per the track and strength of the upper trough and its resultant local precip chances, with low confidence in this period.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 119 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Visible satellite shows clear skies for most of the Great Plains. An upper low spinning over northern CA/OR/NV is shedding upper clouds across the northern Rockies. The inject of moisture into the northwest flow may bring these cirrus over the area tomorrow. 18Z surface analysis depicts a warm front oriented zonally across South Dakota slowly drifting northward and bringing hot and dry conditions to our area today. Highs over most of the area are in the upper 80s with localized spots of 90+. Deep mixing will keep conditions dry. Western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming will see relative humidities in the teens, while central SD will be closer the 30s. Winds today will be light for most of the area, however surface troughing across south-central SD will support wind gusts between 30 and 35 mph. Although the overlap of wind and lack of moisture do not necessitate a Red Flag Warning, fire weather concerns are still valid today due to dry conditions.

Temperatures for Tuesday will remain warm but not to the degree we will see today. Highs in the mid 80s around the I90 latitude, lowering to 80 to the north and rising to the upper 80s to the south. Surface pressure falls will continue through the night as the aforementioned trough progresses east. A cool front will move through the area on Tuesday as well, reaching the Rapid City area right around noon. Northwest winds behind the boundary will gust around 20 to 30 mph.

Temperatures going forward will trend down through the end of the week. Things will stay warmer than average but high will be in the 70s. Northwest upper flow dominates until the weekend. Current guidance swings a longwave trough down the west coast Saturday. As is stands now the GFS lags behind the current Euro models, but strengthen the overall system more. WPC forecasts show strong cyclogenesis over the Dakotas Saturday morning, with front induced precipitation chances starting Sunday and continuing through the start of next week. Column up to 700mb stays above freezing so liquid precip is expected at this time. &&

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 447 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.