textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal high temperatures continue.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions, especially Friday and Saturday.

- Pattern change early next week, resulting in much cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Wednesday) Issued at 1143 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The current forecast has a little bit for everyone. For those who like the summer-time weather, you'll enjoy the first part of the forecast. For those who are looking forward to fall-like weather, you will like the second part of the forecast.

Friday and Saturday will continue the sunny skies and warm, well above normal high temps. Expected highs are in the 80s to low 90s with gusty southwest winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely through Saturday due to low RH and gusty winds, more information can be found in the FIRE WEATHER section below.

After Saturday, a change in the weather pattern will happen. Upper level winds will swing to the west/southwest as a trough of low pressure deepens over the Pacific northwest. And that low is projected to track southward along the coast before kicking eastward toward the the central US. That pattern change will bring much cooler weather to the area, high temps will drop to the 50s and 60s and low temps will drop to the 30s and 40s.

This change will also bring back the rain chances. The first round will begin to move into the far western CWA zones late Saturday with PoPS lingering into Monday night for the entire CWA. If the previously mentioned low's track doesn't change, then a break in the rain is likely Tuesday before another round of rain moves into the area from the southwest Tuesday night with chances lasting through next Thursday. While model ensembles are still trying to hint at the snow potential with each round of precip, the bulk of the model evidence shows that rain is the more likely precip type.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday) Issued At 1134 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1143 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are being reported over northeastern Wyoming into western South Dakota as of this writing around midday. This afternoon, minimum RH values down to 10-20% are likely but wind speeds will be on the lighter side.

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday over the southwestern reaches of the CWA with Min RH values down to 10-20% with gusty west/southwest winds upwards of 30 to 35 mph. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the northeastern WY plains, far southwestern SD, and the foothills.

Saturday will bring near-critical fire weather conditions again with afternoon RH's drop to 15-20% and gusty southwest winds.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for SDZ320>327- 329-332. WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for WYZ314>318.