textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog tonight into Saturday morning, for parts of the western South Dakota plains.

- Mild and dry conditions continue through early next week, breezy at times.

- The second half of next week will see a weather pattern change that will bring back the chances for rain and rain/snow mix.

UPDATE

Issued at 925 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows low clouds limited mainly to NW SD. There has also been recent development of low clouds across Fall River County into far southern Custer County, where upslope southerly flow has been increasing over the last couple of hours. CAMs show low cloud coverage increasing overnight...along with fog, but so far fog has not materialized as expected. Will continue to monitor overnight for potential Dense Fog Advisories. Also, raised tonight's forecast min temps where clouds are expected to persist, though the increases were smaller than yesterday's. No other changes needed.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 130 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Another day of thick fog and low clouds around parts of western SD. These low visibilities and low cloud conditions have been slowly improving today for southwest SD but latest satellite imagery still shows northwest and central SD are stuck under clouds. And the occasional webcam shows the dense fog still lingering around in parts of far northwest South Dakota.

Looking ahead to tonight, clouds will build back in for those who were able to get some sun. Fog is a strong possibility for areas around the Black Hills and in northwest South Dakota. Wind speeds will decrease and temps will dip into the 30s to low 40s.

The weekend will, more-or-less, be a continuation of the weather we've been having. The early morning fog should fade out by midday for most, winds will be breezy at times, and afternoon temps will be above normal, reaching the 50s to low 60s.

Next week will start off with similar weather but a weather pattern change mid week will bring back the precip chances Wednesday through Friday. Rain and rain/snow mix is likely at the start of the pattern change but as colder air slides in from the north, rain/snow mix and snow is more likely.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued At 424 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Fog and low clouds will continue to linger across northwestern South Dakota and increase across portions of northeast Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota through 14/18-20z, leading to localized IFR/LIFR conditions. KRAP may see transient mist before IFR ceilings develop through the early morning, persisting through roughly 14/18z before improving to MVFR. Breezy southerly winds will continue across northeast Wyoming through the TAF period, with max gusts of 30kts possible. Gusty southeasterly winds will begin to develop again across western South Dakota throughout the morning, with max gusts of 40kts possible.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.