textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather again Monday, with elevated/critical fire weather conditions.

- Strong cold front Monday night with gusty NW winds.

- Increasing chances of accumulating snow for the second half of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Near zonal flow aloft continues across the region, bringing plenty of high clouds to the CWA. Current temps are in the 50s to near 60 across most of the area. Have bumped up min temps a few degrees closer to the NBM50. The forecast is still on track through Monday and Tuesday. After a warm day tomorrow, a cold front will cross the CWA mostly in the evening behind a strengthening surface low crossing SD. The main question with this frontal passage is how strong the wind gusts will get. Latest models show a potential for gusts to reach into advisory criteria with some gusts reaching 45-50 mph, but this should be limited to just behind the front where the initial cold air advection is fierce but short-lived. This could be handled with an SPS rather than a long-term Wind Advisory. It will be interesting to see what the 06z/12z runs show. Toward midweek...models are showing an uptick in snow amounts across western/central SD...mostly in the 1-3 inch range. Some models are showing more across south central SD as a strong wave crosses the central Plains. The rest of the week continues to look active, with continued chances for snow.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show quasi-zonal flow over the forecast area, as weak ridge sits over the northern Rockies and plains, with west-northwest flow aloft. Surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary running west/east through the southern half of SD this afternoon. Mostly clear skies this afternoon with breezy winds out of the west to northwest, and temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s.

Warm and dry conditions will continue through Monday, as ridge influences the northern plains. Temperatures will remain 20-30F above normal through Monday afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather may be possible at times as the warmer temperatures combine with low RH and gusty winds. Monday continues the low RH trend, with parts of northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and areas east and south of the hills seeing RH dip into the low teens Monday afternoon. Gusty pre-frontal winds also set up in the late morning and afternoon, bringing near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for much of the forecast area, only excluding northwestern SD and Tripp County down in south central, where the winds wont be as strong.

Cold front is expected to pass through the forecast area Monday afternoon into the evening, bringing gusty northwest winds behind it, and chances for light precipitation. Have bumped up the winds slightly above NBM post-front, with both the GFS and NAM siting 5-8 mb/3hr pressure rises behind the front. It is possible wind headlines may be needed when the Red Flag Warning expires Monday evening, as gusty winds will continue into the overnight hours Tuesday morning. Little moisture with this wave, however light precipitation will be possible over northwestern SD and the Black Hills Monday night through Tuesday. Another weak wave ejects over the Rockies into the central plains Wednesday into Thursday, that may bring light precipitation over the southern half of the CWA. Chance for wetting rains is low with these 2 disturbances over most places, but cannot rule out some localized 0.1-0.2" QPF. Longer range models are becoming more confident in an upper closed low traversing over the Rockies and into the northern/central plains over the weekend. Track and timing of any precipitation associated with this system is still a bit up in the air, however there is potential that we see a longer duration precipitation event with widespread rain/snow. Any potential snow accumulations will be tricky as well, given above freezing temperatures during the day, with below freezing temps at night over the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 1042 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions expected overnight through Monday. Gusty west- southwest winds will shift northwest after 31/00z. MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across NE WY after 31/04z behind the front; spotty showers possible with the frontal passage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1039 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Warm and dry conditions are expected again Monday afternoon, with low RH and gusty winds. This will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of northeastern Wyoming and much of western South Dakota for Monday afternoon and early evening.

A cold front passes through the region Monday evening, bringing some fire weather relief with higher humidities and some light precipitation chances.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Monday for SDZ319>326-329-332>334. WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for WYZ314>318.