textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Unseasonably warm with record to near record highs through Saturday

-Cooler to start next week with some light precip possible Saturday night into Sunday

-Mild and dry weather then returns mid next week before a decent cool down toward the end of next week

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Wednesday) Issued at 1117 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Mean western CONUS ridge will continue to support unseasonably warm weather in much of the period through mid next week. A ridge topping impulse does cool things down Sunday and Monday, however things dry back out and warm up mid week as the ridge rebuilds. Warm and dry westerly flow is ongoing across the area. Weak sfc trough will move through this afternoon and support a shift to NNW winds across portions of the area. However, no CAA associated with this feature. Thermal ridge will shift into the region Friday and Sat with the warmest day for most areas expected to be Sat, as long as the cold front does not speed up. If things remain on track, record high temps will likely be set the next two days at many locations including Rapid City where the all time March high (84) could be broken as highs are forecast to reach the low 90s. Ridge topping impulse will move through Sat night with an associated cold front. This system may bring a few showers to the region Sat night into Sunday, esp across NW SD, but precip chances don't look great attm. Upper ridge then rebuilds mid next week with warm and dry weather returning before a significant cool down occurs toward the end of the week per a strong upper trough in westerly flow.

For further details on days 4 through 7 please visit weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=PMDEPD

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued At 459 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1117 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Unseasonably warm highs in the 70s to low 80s, relative humidities as low as 10%, and breezy westerly winds will combine to create critical fire weather conditions. Lingering snow cover on the north and eastern slopes may mitigate fire risk in some spots in the northern Black Hills and Wyoming Black Hills.

Very warm, dry, and occasionally breezy conditions are expected to continue for the rest of this week. This will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions each day. Slightly lower winds Friday may be a limiting factor most places, except far southwest areas, but winds increase again Saturday. Finally, a cold front will move through Sat afternoon, bringing breezy winds into the night period as well as cooler temperatures and higher humidities for a couple days. The combinations of low RH, frontal passage, and breezy winds may support red flag conds Sat for a large part of the area. Warm and dry weather returns for mid next week, however much colder weather looks to arrive toward the end of next week.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for SDZ319>327-329- 332. WY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314>318.