textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread critical fire wx conditions through 6 pm MST today across portions of northeastern WY, the southern Black Hills, and much of western SD plains.

- Strong winds across NW SD tonight behind a cold front, with gusts over 60 mph possible there

- Accumulating snow Wed night into Thurs, best chances from northeast WY into south central SD where 3 to 6 inches are possible

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 153 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Current upper air water vapor analysis depicts a trof axis over the Pacific Northwest with southwest flow crossing the Rockies and into the central Great Plains. Ridging is located off to the east over Minnesota/Wisconsin. A surface low-pressure system is currently developing over SE MT/NE WY, producing chances for precipitation and stronger winds. The upper level WV indicates multiple layers of cloud cover moving over NE WY and into western SD. Rain showers are currently minimal across the region with the increase in cloud cover. Surface stations across the region show an increase in temperatures as you go from west to east, ranging from the 40s to 50s moving away from the cloud cover. RH percentages are still 30 percent or higher, however, far SW SD is seeing values as low as 17 percent as the drier air moves in with increasing winds. Strong winds are currently present across NE WY with gusts reaching 70 mph, while winds in SW SD are increasing with gusts reaching 40 mph. The combination of the warmer temps, low RH values, and high winds is creating critical fire weather conditions. Because of these conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect through 6 p.m. MST for NE WY and most of western SD. Due to the strong winds, a High Wind Warning is in effect through 6 p.m. MST for NE WY and SW SD and from 6 p.m. to 5 a.m. MST for NW SD.

For tonight into Wednesday, the low will continue to develop and slide of to the east. This will result in a cold front sliding through the region tonight, bringing with it rain/snow showers over NE WY, the Black Hills and parts of western SD, strong northwest winds for NW and central SD with gusts reaching 60+ mph, and an cooler air to the region. Winds will become lighter as the cold front passes, resulting in cooler, near average temperatures for most during the day Wednesday. RH values will remain low for Wednesday, with much of most of the region in the 20s to low 30s.

A shortwave will move through the region Wednesday evening into Thursday, brining with it a second cold front and a round of much needed snow to the region. Probability of 4+ inches of snowfall for the Black Hills is currently at 55 to 75 percent, while the probability of 2+ inches of snowfall for most of the western SD plains is 45 to 65 percent (NBM-CONUS). Winds will be lighter as the snow moves through the region, so blowing snow will most likely not be an issue. Total snowfall accumulations will vary greatly due to the warm ground. Storm Total QPF, from the NBM, are currently sitting at 0.2 to 0.35" for the Black Hills, NE WY, and SW SD and values dropping off to 0.05 to 0.1" the further east and north you go. Along with the snow, colder Arctic air will move into the region behind the second cold front dropping high temps to below average through the weekend. Unfortunately, temperatures will rebound next week to above average, reaching back into the 50s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1017 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue for most through the TAF period. Breif rain and snow showers may lower VIS and CIG to MVFR/LFR conditions across NE WY and most of western SD.

Surface winds will continue to be strong across NE WY and continue to spread into western SD, with gusts 35-50 knots. Strongest winds at KGCC and portions of NE WY during the day. A cold front passing through this evening will bring gusty winds out of the northwest, with the strongest winds from northwest to central SD.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Wednesday for SDZ001-002-012-013-078. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for SDZ320>327-329-331>335. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Wednesday for SDZ014. Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ025-074. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for SDZ027-029-041- 075. WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ314>317. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ054-055-058- 059.