textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday.

- Cooler with rain/snow behind cold front late Thursday through Friday.

- Trending warmer Saturday through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1003 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Shortwave trough is now crossing eastern portions of the CWA heading toward East River SD. KUDX radar shows lingering showers pushing toward the Missouri River Valley. Quiet weather is expected behind the wave for the rest of tonight through Wednesday as weak upper ridging builds in ahead of the next trough. Winds will be relatively light overnight and min temps will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow as RHs drop to 15% or less across portions of the area. However, winds should be relatively light, so no fire weather headlines are expected. Will let the overnight shift take a second look at the southern Campbell County area where winds should be a little higher, but right now conditions look too marginal and limited in area for a Red Flag Warning. Fire weather conditions may be critical on Thursday given breezy winds and dry RH mainly south of I-90 in western SD. Will continue with the Fire Weather Watch. The next noteworthy weather event will be later in the week as a longwave trough crosses the region. A cold front will cross the CWA Thu afternoon/evening. Some Pacific moisture will be available for a band of of rain to develop Thu evening, then change to snow overnight into Fri. Decent model agreement on the highest snow totals across NE WY, the northern Black Hills...perhaps into NW SD. Generally looks like 0.10-0.40" of QPF with 1-3" of snow...perhaps locally higher amounts across the higher Black Hills. Will wait to see how this system trends within medium range guidance.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Active southwesterly flow continues across the central US. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough pushing through the Northern Plains and an upper low ejecting out of the Central Rockies along with an active southern stream as moisture streams into the Southern Plains. Surface low pressure is centered over southeastern NE with a weak gradient over the forecast area. Light showers/sprinkles continue across southwestern SD into south- central SD, although a dry boundary layer and lack of appreciable mid-level moisture will limit precipitation amounts. Showers will taper off this afternoon and early evening as subsidence overspreads the region.

Warmer and dry tomorrow with temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the plains. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected with RH falling into the teens to low 20s, particularly portions of NE WY and SW SD, although there is some uncertainty regarding boundary layer winds/if frequent gusts > 25 mph will develop. Even warmer (along and south of I90 in SD) and drier Thursday ahead of a cold front with critical conditions possible; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from the Weston County plains through southern SD.

Cold front arrives Thursday evening bringing cooler air and potential for rain and snow. Upper trough will eject out of the Central Rockies, although recent guidance shows split flow developing. Pacific moisture advects into the region ahead of this trough, although appreciable moisture is lacking (precipitable water values ~100-125% of normal). Best chance of measurable precipitation across NE WY and the northern Black Hills (NBM prob QPF >0.25" ~30-55%).

Warm air advection returns Saturday with temperatures trending warmer through the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions expected.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1003 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions expected tomorrow (Wed) across much of the area as RH falls into the teens to low 20s. Best overlap of low RH and stronger winds forecast across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY through southwestern SD into the southern Black Hills and foothills. Some uncertainty remains whether winds will reach critical thresholds to warrant a RFW; will continue to monitor.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday for the Weston County plains through southern SD as stronger southwest winds will develop ahead of a cold front. Daytime minimum RH will fall as low as 12-14 percent Thursday. Mid-level clouds ahead of the front and spotty high-based showers may complicate things Thursday by keeping temperatures a bit cooler and RH higher. However, plan for at least elevated to near-critical conditions Thursday (and Wednesday).

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ317.