textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer and mostly dry conditions are expected the first half of the week.

- Cooler more unsettled weather returns the latter half of the week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 1258 PM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show upper ridge over the Rockies, with northwest flow over the forecast area. Most recent surface analysis depicts low pressure over Montana, while high pressure sits to our east. Winds are generally light of the southeast to southwest. Large range of temperatures as southwest flow over northeast Wyoming into the Black hills and southern SD brings strong WAA, with temps currently in the 40s and 50s, while northwestern SD where there was more snow pack sits in the teens and 20s.

Upper ridge will influence the forecast area through Wednesday, continuing warm and mostly dry conditions. Expect highs Monday through Wednesday to range in the upper 40s to low 60s. There is a signal for potential upslope light precipitation Tuesday afternoon over the northern Black Hills, though any precipitation that may develop would have little to no accumulations. Upper flow becomes more zonal Tuesday into Wednesday and we see a shortwave traverse from the PAC NW into the northern plains later Wednesday into thursday. This will bring our next chance for more widespread precipitation as well as cooler temperatures. Limited moisture will keep this a light precipitation event, but expect a 15-25 degree drop in temperatures for Thursday. Longer range model guidance is consistent in keeping zonal flow with a few weak disturbances through the weekend, and a few chances for light precipitation will be possible.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 323 PM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.