textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Elevated to critical fire weather conditions today

-Strong cold front will bring windy conditions today with much cooler weather for Tuesday

-The bulk of smoke from western wildfires will begin to clear out tonight

-Mainly dry this week with hot weather returning the end of the week

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1112 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Western CONUS upper ridge will retrograde and flatten as a strong upper trough moves across interior Canada. However, the ridge will rebuild and support hot weather by the end of the week, with 90s and 100s returning. Strong upper trough continues to advance through the Northern Plains. A cool front has moved through the region this morning with breezy north-northeast winds across the FA. However, the main cold front will push through the FA late this afternoon and early evening, with a period of strong winds expected, esp across the western SD Plains where gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible for a short period per pressure rise forecast. The strongest winds will be in the lee of the Black Hills, likely affecting KRAP. In addition, a batch of thick low level smoke from OR/WA wildfires will continue to push through the region behind the front through tonight. The worst of the smoke will move through late this morning into the early afternoon. Conds will improve gradually overnight, but some lingering smoke is possible into Tues, esp across the far SW FA. Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible in scentral SD this evening along the secondary front. In addition, could still could see a few showers and TS across the scentral SD later tonight into Tue morning as the jet entrance region will overlap with a weak impulse passing to the south of the FA, supporting elevated convection. Temps will fall into the 40s and 50s tonight with a few 30s expected in portions of the higher Black Hills. Highs Tues will be 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms mainly in the 70s, with 60s in the Black Hills. Western ridge will gradually rebuild late in the week. This will support a warm up with gradual increasing LL moisture as SE return flow ensues. Weak pos theta-e adv aloft may support isolated showers and maybe a TS Wed night across northeast WY and far SW SD. However, models have backed off on the northern extent and coverage of showers, adjusted pops down. Also pulled pops over the BH Wed afternoon, as much drier BL conds are expected with weaker moisture advection into the area. Expect highs to be back in the 90s by Thur, with triple digits possible by Friday and Sat on the SD Plains. Dry weather is expected through the weekend. Flow looks to become a little more active later next week as some of the longer range models indicate a stalled frontal boundary INVOF the FA with faster flow aloft and appreciable LL moisture.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1201 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Breezy northerly winds have developed. Gusts to 30-40kt will be possible across portions of the NW SD plains. A secondary front is tracking NW to SE through the area which will bring brief stronger wind gusts, but these won't last long and will be highly associated with the front. Winds will diminish quickly this evening.

Smoke is expected through the afternoon, diminishing this evening. The smoke could reduce VSBY to MVFR at times.

Though generally dry weather is expected today, there could be showers and thunderstorms tonight across south central SD.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1112 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Gusty northerly winds can be expected today behind a cold front. A period of very strong winds will arrive with the secondary front this evening (4-7 PM) with a period of winds gusting over 50 mph on the far western SD Plains. Although RH's will be marginal, the gusty winds combined with cured fuels will support critical fire weather conditions on most of the SD Plains and portions of the northeast WY Plains. A red flag warning remains in effect into the evening. Winds will gradually diminish overnight. Much cooler weather can be expected Tuesday, before hot and mainly dry weather returns later in the week with elevated fire weather conditions.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ322>333. WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ317.