textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Arctic air moves in today, bringing falling temperatures, very cold wind chills, and light snow through Friday.

- Below average temps continue through the weekend.

- Above freezing temperatures return Monday.

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Wednesday) Issued at 226 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

Upper cyclonic flow continues across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with an upper low centered just north of the Great Lakes region. Northwest flow aloft persists over the northern Plains. Surface obs show a baroclinic zone sitting across SW ND/NW SD. Surface ridging is extending from the central Plains, across the CWA, into eastern MT. Temperatures are in the single digits and teens at this time. Today...max temps will vary with the stalled frontal boundary, with highs in the single digits over NW SD to mid 20s over SW SD. An upper wave today will swing around the backside of the upper low, allowing the arctic front to push back southwestward across the rest of the CWA. Max temps will likely be early in the day, then temps will drop through the afternoon. Breezy N/NE winds behind the front will combine with overnight temperatures of -10 to -20F to support wind chills in the -25 to -35F range. Have issued a Cold Weather Advisory from 6pm MST this evening to noon MST on Friday. A second wave is progged to cross the northern Plains on Friday. Low level forcing along the baroclinic zone (stalled over NE WY) will result in snowfall across NE WY, the Black Hills area, and southwest SD. Right now it looks like 20:1 snow ratios with up to 0.12" QPF would produce an inch or two of dry snow. It's possible ratios could be higher, which would result in slightly higher totals. Am comfortable with 1-3 inch wording in the forecast for now and will let the day shift see how 12z model runs trend. Drier air moves back in late Friday, shutting off the snowfall. Max temps on Friday will be in the -5 to +10F range, then min temps Friday night will drop to -5 to -15F. Wind chills overnight will generally be in the -15 to -25F range, so right now it doesn't look like a Cold Weather Advisory will be needed Fri night/Sat morning. An upper wave on Sat night may bring very light snow to the area, but accumulations look to be minimal. Strong warm air advection is expected on Sunday, which will bring back above-freezing temps to start the work week. Then models are hinting at a return to colder temps toward the middle of next week along with light snow.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued At 226 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions expected today. Light snow is expected to develop tonight, mainly across NE WY, the Black Hills area, and southwest SD. This will bring MVFR/IFR conditions. Northwest winds pick back up today, especially across northwest SD with gusts of up 35kt.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening to noon MST /1 PM CST/ Friday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027- 030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078. WY...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MST Friday for WYZ060.