textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Elevated to critical fire weather conditions Monday and especially Tuesday

-Strong gusty westerly winds Tuesday across the southern half, esp far southwest areas

-Some snow accums possible Wednesday night into Thursday, with much colder weather to follow

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Sunday) Issued at 926 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Massive western CONUS trough will fracture with pieces shifting east through the period. Before this occurs, another couple days of mild and dry weather weather are expected, along with increasingly breezy weather. Dry and mild SW flow continues over the region. Lee side trough will develop Mon, with SSE winds developing. This will keep temps down a bit compered to today across NW SD and central SD. However, still mild with highs in the 50s and 60s most places again. Splitting upper trough will shift east Tues, kicking out the lee-side trough. SFC low has trended a bit further north tracking over NW SD or so. This will allow the dry slot to shift across the southern half where deep mixing will occur. Expect strong gusty winds to develop from parts of NE WY east into SW SD where gusts over 60 mph are highly probable. Have issued a high wind watch for this area. Copious amounts of dry in place will highly limit any precip Tues across most of the area. The exception will be along and north of the low track across NW SD. Have trimmed pops to mainly this area Tues and Tues night. Cold front will shift across the area Tues night, with breezy NW winds developing and continuing through Wed. The next vort max will shift into the area Wed night, with the sfc low tracking south of the area. FGEN band will develop Wed night and shift across the area into Thur, supporting a decent chance of snow. Open wave will support a quicker advection of the system, which will likely limit snow amounts to a degree outside of any banding, which would likely remain south of the area in Nebraska given the expected sfc front and low track locations. The could certainly be some terrain enhancement across the southern Black Hills where locally higher amounts would be possible. Much colder for the end of the week as a secondary cold front moves through behind this wave. Things remain cool into the weekend with a possible warm up early next week as the western ridge reforms.

For further details on days 4 through 7 please visit weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=PMDEPD

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1039 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. LLWS may develop around 10z producing 60KT winds at 2 to 3 km, mainly over northeastern WY up through northwestern SD.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 926 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Minimum relative humidities Monday and Tuesday will be in the teens/20s over parts of northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. Winds and low RH will not overlap Monday, although a few breezy spots could support near critical conds across southern SD. However, gusty west winds (over 50 mph or stronger) will develop Tues across northeast WY into western SD. In addition to the gusty winds, very dry air will spread across the region, with RH's expected into the mid to lower teens. The combination of receptive fuels, strong gusty winds, and very low RH would support critical fire weather conditions. Hence, a fire weather watch has been issued from southern Campbell County east into central SD. A pattern shift is on track for the middle of the week, with much cooler weather and chances for wetting precip.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for SDZ320>322-324>326-329-331>335. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for SDZ027-029-041-075-076. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for WYZ315-317. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for WYZ055-058-059.