textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer Tuesday, highs in the 80s to near 90, with cooler highs in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Warm again Friday and Saturday.

- Windy on Wednesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through Wednesday.

- Passing isolated storms possible in NW SD through Thursday. Better chances for storms this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 931 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Breezy, dry, and semi-unsettled flow will persist through the week as a series of disturbances move ESE across the region. Expect mainly seasonal temps with a few warmer days, Tue being one of them as highs top out in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Shower/storm chances will be confined to mainly far NW SD, closer to better instability and forcing, although some high based showers may creep further south across the FA Tue night as a strong jet streak moves into the area. Have extended low pops south for this. Windy conds still look on track for Wed, although the fastest flow just off the sfc looks to shift through the region in the morning as the upper vort max arrives earlier. This would limit winds some as flow would be decreasing aloft when deeper mixing occurs in the afternoon. Still expect solid adv criteria with potentially a few locations hitting warning levels across NW SD.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 202 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Low pressure system spinning near the west side of the Hudson Bay is our main weather maker for the short term forecast. It's giving the CWA northwest flow with just enough upward vertical motion to get some showers and thunderstorms going in the upper great plains. The storms so far have been mostly contained to the north-central and eastern half of SD while the far western counties have been dry for the most part, save for a few cells that have been short-lived.

Looking ahead to tonight and tomorrow, continued northwest flow will keep the chances for isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms to track into the area from the north. These chances will be mainly centered around little shortwaves spinning around the main low that will keep spinning near Hudson Bay. Temps tonight will dip into the 40s to low 50s and tomorrow's highs will be above normal, in the 80s to low 90s. Winds will be out of the west-to-northwest at up to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon, a little stronger in the NW SD plains where sustained speeds could be up to 25 mph, before calming down in the evening.

Wednesday and Thursday look similar to tomorrow in terms of the PoPs forecast, continued chances for isolated showers and storms in the northwest counties. There will be a couple differences though. For starters, afternoon temps will be a little cooler, only reaching the 70s for the plains and only the 60s to low 70s for the Black Hills. The other difference will be the winds on Wednesday. Strong northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph and gusts nearing 45 to 55 are likely Wednesday afternoon. Strongest winds will be in the SD plains. Thursday will be a calmer with northwest winds around 10 to 20 mph and gusts near 30 mph.

Friday and the weekend will see the weather pattern change to a more westerly flow. This will bring back more widespread thunderstorm chances for the weekend and warmer temps.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 508 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Breezy west-northwest winds with gusts of up to 35KT will increase across the area by mid to late morning, then decrease in the evening. Isolated rain showers will be possible across much of the area late this afternoon and evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 202 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Generally dry weather will remain for the first half of the week along with warmer temps.

Warmer, dry air continues tomorrow across the northeastern WY and southwestern South Dakota plains will lead to relative humidities below 20 percent. The dry air will combine with northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph to support critical to near-critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

Breezy conditions and low humidity will linger around this week, which will result in elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ322-326. WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315-317.