textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and above average temperatures Monday through Wednesday with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions; warmest and dries Wednesday ahead of a cold front.

- Cold front to bring more seasonable temperatures Thursday along with light showers.

- Trending mild and dry again Friday into next weekend with elevated fire weather conditions likely.

UPDATE

Issued at 1006 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Surface high is moving through the region this evening. CAMs show some potential for some very light precip over south central SD Monday morning as return flow sets up, so have added some added some light PoPs for that timeframe. Otherwise expect warming temperatures as low level southerly flow brings in warmer air through mid-week. Wednesday will be the hottest day, with models showing temps in the 80s for the southern half of the CWA. Expect elevated fire conditions to return as well, given the warmer temperatures. Monday and Tuesday are expected to have elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. Fire weather headlines may be needed for Wednesday, with RH potentially dipping into the low teens from northeast WY down into southwestern SD, and wind gusts 25 to 40 mph possible. Next disturbance moves through the northern plains late Wednesday into Thursday. The better forcing and precipitation chances look to stay north of the forecast area for now. Could still see some light precipitation over northwestern SD, and temperatures cool down for Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Upper trough axis continues to shift east of the forecast area as subsidence and drying overspreads the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure is centered over central ND and continues to drift eastward. Expansive low clouds cover the CWA now, although cloud cover is slowly eroding. These low clouds will continue to erode through the day with a mix of clouds and sun through the afternoon. Highs will push into the 40s to low 50s.

Southwestern upper ridge re-establishes itself over the next few days with thermal ridge overspreading the forecast area through Wednesday. While not as warm as this past week, above normal temperatures are expected (upper 50s to around 70) with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. Warmest day of the week Wednesday with widespread 70s and low 80s likely along and south of I-90. A cold front pushes through overnight Wednesday, bringing cooler, yet seasonable temperatures Thursday and spotty light showers. Above average temperatures return next weekend as upper flow turns southwesterly. Models currently show potential for a deeper western trough latter half of next weekend into the following week, although considerable uncertainty remains regarding sensible weather impacts locally.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 507 AM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1224 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Temperatures will warm back into the 60s and 70s Monday and Tuesday with elevated fire weather conditions across the area. Gusty southerly winds Monday across south-central SD into the western SD plains will support elevated fire weather conditions, although relative humidity will be above critical (20-30 percent). Regardless, dry fuels and strong winds will result in at least high grassland fire danger. Lighter winds Tuesday will moderate fire weather potential, although warm temperatures and low humidity (15- 25 percent) will result in continued elevated conditions.

Warmest day expected Wednesday with widespread 70s and low 80s (mainly along and south of I-90) with gusty westerly winds ahead of another cold front. Best chances of critical conditions across NE WY plains into southwestern SD. Cold front will shift winds northwest overnight Wednesday with spotty light precipitation possible, although minimal amounts. Temperatures quickly rebound Friday into next weekend with continued elevated to near-critical conditions.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.