textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and freezing rain will move across western SD today with ice accumulations of 0.01+" along and north of I-90.

- Breezy northwest winds will develop across western SD and northeastern WY with gusts of 40-45 mph possible over northwestern and southwestern SD.

- Above average temperatures and mostly dry weather returns Sunday into early next week

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Friday) Issued at 218 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts upper level wave moving across eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Recent KUDX scans are picking up some weak reflectivity over northwestern SD/northeastern WY but looking at the webcams in the area, not seeing any precip reaching the ground. Upper level shortwave and attendant front will continue to push across the Dakotas today, displacing the Arctic airmass further east and bringing warmer air into the region. Line of light precip associated with the front will move through the CWA this morning into this afternoon. Temperatures at the sfc will remain below freezing as the precip moves through but warming air aloft will support a transition from snow to freezing rain over the plains. Areas in northwestern SD could see a few hours of freezing rain with areas along and north of I-90 seeing up to 0.01" or more of ice accumulation (50-90% probs per HREF grand ensemble). A few spots in far northwestern SD near the ND border could see accumulations of 0.05" (30-50% probs per HREF). There is the potential for some spots over south central SD to pick up >0.01" (40- 60% per HREF) but due to low confidence have opted to not expand the current Winter Wx Advisory to cover south central SD. Temps should remain cold enough across the Black Hills for precip to remain snow and the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills could pick up around an inch or two of snowfall.

Weak pressure rises behind the front will support breezy northwest winds across the area this afternoon. BUFKIT momentum transfer shows the potential for 40-45kt winds at H85-H80 to mix down to the surface across northwestern and southwestern SD. Some spots may see gusts of up to 45mph, especially across northwestern and southwestern SD.

Upper ridge pushes into the Rockies by Sunday with the Northern Plains remaining under northwest flow. Sfc baroclinic zone will be pushed further eastward into far northwestern and south central SD. Highs for early next week will depend on where this zone sets up, thus have lower confidence in high temps across northwestern and south central SD. Generally though, it's looking like we'll be seeing above average temperatures (around 10-20F above average for this time of year) across northeastern WY into most of western SD and cooler temps towards central SD. Another shortwave progged to move through the region Tuesday with chances for light rain/snow over portions of western SD and the Black Hills Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thus far, not looking like we'll see too much out of this event in terms of accumulations.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 1010 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected. A clipper system will bring some light mixed precip to the region after 31/06-08Z across portions of far NE WY and into NW SD. Some local MVFR conds are possible in snow and mixed precipitation. Precipitation will quickly push eastward through the day Saturday with widespread VFR conditions across the area after 31/23Z.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ001- 002-012>014-032-072-073-078. WY...None.