textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Sunday through Wednesday, expect unseasonably mild temperatures along with breezy/gusty winds at times, especially Tuesday - For the end of the week, expect a return to seasonal temperatures heralded by a couple of cold fronts and potentially strong winds

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 131 PM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

20z surface analysis had frontal boundary from eastern MT into central NE. Water vapour matinee had upper low over KDLH with weak shear axis over the northern Plains. Shear axis interacting with frontal boundary producing patchy bands of light snow. Activity will quickly die this evening as subsidence kicks in. Attention then turns to upper ridge over the western CONUS.

Tonight, skies will clear with temperatures near guidance. Sunday, frontal boundary scoots east as a warm front bringing unseasonably mild temperatures to the area. As boundary layer mixes out, breezy west/northwest winds expected over northwestern SD. With upper level ridge anchored over the western CONUS, expect mild temperatures Monday. Tuesday, a weak moisture-starved shortwave will zip southeast through the upper Midwest pushing a back door cool front into the CWA Tuesday. Result will be gusty northwest winds (<30% chance gusts >45mph) at times and slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday. Might see patchy QPF, especially for the northern Black Hills.

Thursday through Saturday, ensemble guidance in good agreement that upper trough rapidly develops over central North America. A couple of cold fronts will slice through the northern Plains, each with a period of potentially strong, gusty winds. Probably of >45mph gusts 20-40% both days on the western SD plains with ECMWF EFI giving 70-90th percentile wind gusts/0-1 shift of tails. How windy remains to be seen, but wouldn't be surprised to see headlines given pattern and robust cold air advection with each cold front. System won't have much moisture to work with, so PoPs generally low.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 1043 AM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

Scattered snow showers will slide southeast across the SD plains and northern Black Hills through the rest of the day, resulting in isolated to sct MVFR cigs and vsbys. Gusty northwest winds from 30 to 40 kts are expected across much of western SD, with gusts to near 45 kts possible. The winds and snow showers will diminish quickly after 11/00Z resulting in widespread VFR conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 131 PM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

Minimum relative humidities will dip into the 20s over the southwestern half of the area Sunday/Monday. Breezy/gusty west/northwest winds are expected through the period, especially Tuesday and Thursday/Friday. Result will be elevated fire weather conditions at times.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.