textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will move across the CWA tonight/Wednesday - Drying out for the rest of the week, but southwest flow aloft will bring the possibility of showers or thunderstorms - Breezy/windy spots through Wednesday

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 156 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

19z surface analysis had high over the Great Lakes with a warm front from central MT into eastern CO. Modestly tight pressure gradient inbetween promoting southeasterly wind gusts into the 30s on the western SD plains this afternoon. Few shra/TS crawling across south-central SD under weak theta-e advection regime. Water vapour loop had upper ridge from TX into eastern WY with upper low near KSLC. Effect of this system main forecast concern.

Tonight/Wednesday, upper low lifts northeast as it opens up over WY/MT. Stronger low level jet develops ahead of it tonight creating weak buoyancy (<1KJ/kg MUCAPE) in modest low level theta-e advection regime. Result will be some shra/TS lifting northeast across the area into Wednesday. Upslope component to low level flow may support some fog in/near Black Hills/adjacent plains overnight. Temperatures will be near guidance as low clouds slowly scour out east of the Black Hills Wednesday afternoon per movement of warm front.

Thursday into early next week, southwest flow aloft will persist with periodic frontal passages/shortwaves/downslope flow. Warming trend expected with ensembles in relatively good agreement for temperatures (5-10F spreads). Each wiggle will bring PoPs, but there will be plenty of dry hours ahead of most folks.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1119 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Low clouds will persist for areas east/south of the Black Hills for most of Tuesday. MVFR conditions are expected in this area until they move out later Wednesday morning, likely after 12Z. Some light showers are possible in far northeast WY overnight, but confidence remains low on timing/placement.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.

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