textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions Wednesday; a Red Flag Warning is in effect for northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills, and southwestern South Dakota.

- Cold front arrives late Wednesday with gusty northwest winds and light showers. Most areas will remain dry.

- Trending mild and dry again Friday into next weekend with elevated fire weather conditions likely.

UPDATE

Issued at 928 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Not much change to the previous forecast. Main changes were to bump highs up tomorrow and winds tomorrow night with the cold front. Expecting highs Wed into the 80s at many places on the plains in the southwest half. Strong cold front will move through later Wed night with winds expected to gust to around 50 mph at some locations on the SD Plains (with isolated higher gusts possible). Precip chances not that great tomorrow night into Thur with low to mid chances, best across the northwest half. This will be very similar to last Sat into Sun fropa and post frontal precip.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Water vapor imagery shows weak, embedded shortwaves within the flow across the Northern Plains and Rockies. Upper level clouds continue to spill into the region given surge of mid- and upper- level moisture. Surface front remains across NE WY through the NE Panhandle and has been slow to surge northeastward. Given the cloud cover and position of the front, temperatures have been slow to warm, particularly across NW SD this afternoon.

Warm front will surge eastward later today and tonight, advecting warmer air into the region tonight into Wednesday. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with widespread 70s and low 80s across the forecast area (upper 60s in the higher elevation of the Black Hills). Critical fire weather conditions are likely across NE WY, the Black Hills and foothills, and SW SD where RH will fall into the teens with winds gusting 25 to 40 mph. Strongest winds and highest confidence in critical fire weather conditions across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY along with the southern Black Hills into Fall River County in SD.

Cold front will push through the region late Wednesday into Thursday with spotty light showers, mainly across the Black Hills and NW SD, although precipitation amounts will be minimal. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the western SD plains into south-central Thursday with northwest winds gusting to 40 mph and RH in the 20s and 30s.

Above average temperatures return Saturday through the weekend with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. Active southwesterly flow looks to develop by mid-week next week with more widespread precipitation chances returning.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1007 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Expect gusty west winds Wed afternoon across northeast WY into southwest SD.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1235 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills and foothills, and southwestern South Dakota. Critical fire weather conditions are expected with relative humidity falling into the teens and winds gusting 25 to 40 mph. The strongest winds and lowest RH will overlap across southern Campbell County into southwestern South Dakota. Winds will be lighter across the western South Dakota plains, although occasional gusts greater than 25 mph are expected during peak heating.

A cold front will push through the area from NW to SE after 2000, shifting winds out of the northwest along with spotty light showers, although most areas will remain dry. North-northwest winds with gusts to 35-40 mph expected behind the front Thursday coupled with RH in the 20s and 30s will support elevated fire weather conditions across the plains.

Well above average temperatures return Saturday into early next weekend with very dry air (RH 10-25%) with near-critical fire weather conditions (at least) through Monday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for SDZ319>326-332-333. WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ314>318.