textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal high temperatures continue through the week.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions, especially Friday and Saturday.

- Pattern Changes early next week, resulting in much cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 120 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show northwest flow over the region, as broad upper ridge continues to sit over the west coast, and upper trough over the Great Lakes and New England region. 19Z surface analysis shows low pressure over the central ND/SD border. Winds are generally light and variable across the forecast area, with current afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Very little change to the overall pattern through the rest of the week. The surface low passing through today will cause a slight increase in winds this evening into tonight due to pressure rises behind it, however winds still remain relatively light. Otherwise expect dry and mild conditions to continue through Saturday. Low level southwesterly flow will bring in dry and warmer air for Friday and Saturday, with high temperatures climbing into the 80s and even low 90s for some areas. Good mixing will also result in stronger winds, with gusts 30 to 40 mph possible over the plains areas for both afternoons. The dry air coupled with stronger winds will result in near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Friday late morning into the evening for the northeast WY plains, southwestern SD, and the foothills.

The pattern will change the latter half of the weekend, as upper trough digs into the PAC NW and the Rockies. Temperatures will swing in the other direction, with highs dropping 25 to 30 degrees for Sunday. Early next week will see our first chance for precipitation as well, as a disturbance moves through in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. With the cooler temperatures moving in, some areas could see their first snow as well, depending on timing of the precipitation. QPF amounts are generally low with this wave though, and given temperatures dont typically dip below freezing, accumulating snow is not expected.

Models hint at brief ridging over the central and northern plains on Tuesday, resulting in a dry and perhaps slightly warmer day, but then longer range models show an upper low swinging from southwestern SD into the region. We're still a ways out from this, so models have been inconsistent as to how this low/trough will affect the region, but will be monitoring as we move into next week. There is potential for widespread precipitation the latter half of the week depending on the track of this system.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 507 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 120 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected over northeastern Wyoming Thursday per MinRH 15-20%, but wind speeds will be on the lighter side. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions may occur Friday over the southwestern reaches of the CWA per MinRH 10-20% and potential for deeply mixed boundary layer to produce gusty west/southwest winds. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the northeastern WY plains, far southwestern SD, and the foothills. Saturday will bring near-critical fire weather conditions again with afternoon RH's drop to 15-20% and gusty southwest winds.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for SDZ322>327. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for WYZ314>317.