textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and dry weather through much of this week.
UPDATE
Issued at 1058 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026
No major changes to the forecast this evening. Surface analysis shows a weak cold front crossing NW SD at this time. Across SW SD, temps are in the mid to upper 50s while over NW SD into portions of NE WY temps are dropping into the upper 40s. NW winds will continue overnight into Wed morning, then return flow sets up as the surface high pushes east of the CWA Wed afternoon. Max temps on Wed will be in the 60s to low 70s...but then a decent overnight LLJ/warm air advection will push highs on Thursday well above average (upper 70s to possibly mid 80s over the western SD plains).
DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1254 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Current upper level analysis shows broad ridging over the central and western US with deepening trof off the west coast. The CWA sits under upper level southwest flow and clear skies. Sfc stations report light southerly winds across much of western SD with temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
Weak front will cross the CWA overnight with the only impacts being a slight drop in tomorrow's highs and a brief period of breezy northwest winds overnight. Upper ridge builds over the region Wednesday into Thursday with southerly return flow supporting warming temps over the area.
Southerly winds pick up early Friday morning as upper level trof approaches with attendant sfc low and trailing cold front crossing the Northern Plains. WAA ahead of the front Friday afternoon will support highs in the upper 70s to low 80s over the western SD plains. As the front crosses the area later Friday evening, winds will shift to the northwest but remain breezy through the night, especially over northwestern SD. Much cooler conditions expected over the weekend with low chances for light precip.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1040 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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