textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northwest winds diminish as we progress through today.

- Arctic air moves in later Thursday into Friday, bringing potential cold weather headlines over the area.

- Gradual warmup over the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1247 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Current upper air models and Water Vapor show northwest flow over the forecast area, as upper low sits over northern Manitoba. Surface analysis depicts low over central Minnesota, with our recent cold front now to our south in Nebraska. Temperatures currently sit in the 20s over the plains, and teens in the Black Hills. Gusty winds out of the northwest 35-55 mph.

Winds continue to diminish this afternoon as the frontal boundary moves away from the forecast area. Upper northwest flow will continue to usher in cold air advection into the area the remainder of the work week. Expect wind chills to dip into the negatives over much of the forecast area Thursday morning. The coldest air arrives late Thursday into Friday morning. LREF probabilities of wind chills < 25F shows a swath of 50-80% chance from northwest SD down into south central SD. Will likely need some cold headlines for Thursday night and Friday, but after some collaboration will hold off for now. There are some minor chances for snow Thursday and Friday given cyclonic flow, however moisture profile is weak and not expecting anything too significant.

Early in the weekend the upper low slides east into the New England region, allowing for a gradual warmup as warmer air moves in from the west. Temperatures over the weekend still remain below normal, however warmer than the cold spell we will experience over Thurs/Fri. Determinitics hint at some short-wave ridging early next week, bringing in potentially above normal temperatures, however far enough out and enough discrepancy so have stuck with guidance.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1017 AM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Winds will gust out of the northwest from 30-55kts east of the Black Hills into the plains. Areas to the west of the hills including KGCC will see slightly lighter gusts from 20-30KT and possibly some light snow or flurries which may limit visibilities at times to MVFR.

Otherwise, winds will slowly subside late this afternoon/evening. Local MVFR conditions are expected over far northwestern SD due to snow or blowing snow this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for SDZ001-002-012>014-026-031-032-043-044-046-047-049-072-073- 077-078. Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ025-030-041- 042-075-076. WY...None.