textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold temperatures through the weekend

- Warmer (above average) temperatures and increased fire weather conditions return Monday and Tuesday

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 1233 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

Current upper air water vapor analysis depicts a trough axis stretching from central MT down to northern CO, southwesterly flow over the southern Great Plains/southern Midwest, a strong surface low-pressure system over MI with a cold from extending from the low southwest into northern MO/KS, and a disturbance crossing the CO Rockies. At the surface, high pressure continues to build over the region resulting in clear to partly cloudy skies and lighter winds, with temperatures mainly in the teens and 20s.

For tonight, the trough will begin to become negatively tilted and rise as the ridge, over the west coast, moves eastward. High cloud cover will increase before decreasing in the early morning hours with no chances for precipitation. Low temperatures will be cold, with most seeing single digits and light and variable winds.

The ridge will continue to build over the western CONUS on Saturday, allowing for temperatures to begin warming back into the 30s for most, with some 20s where snow is on the ground. Winds will also increase in the morning, with 25-35 mph gusts northeast of the Black Hills, southern Black Hills, and southwest SD.

As we move into Sunday, the ridge continues to build and begins to move into the region, allowing for warmer air to start creeping back into parts of WY. By Monday, the ridge will be the dominant feature, allowing above average temperatures and an increase in fire weather conditions to return. With the combination of temperatures in the 50s to low 60s and the probability of >40 mph wind gusts currently at 35-55 percent over southwest SD, increased to near critical fire weather conditions are possible for Monday and especially Tuesday (NBM-CONUS). Our next chance for precipitation will be late Tuesday through Thursday, unfortunately, current model runs show most locations receiving minimal amounts of moisture.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1028 AM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.

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