textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer through Tuesday, then becoming unsettled and cooler.

- Isolated TS possible this afternoon and Tuesday across western SD, with some low-end potential for severe storms.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions through Tues across portions of northeast WY.

- Wildfire smoke is expected to linger much of the week, with thicker smoke at times across the western third

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1249 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Early this afternoon, we are still watching and waiting to see if we can get some storms going. Thunderstorm chances are still highly conditional and will depend on whether or not we can break the cap. Yesterday, one storm was able to develop and as of this writing, clouds are building over the central Black Hills. So it's possible.

For tonight, any storms that are able to develop, they will move east through the evening. Overnight looks quiet with diminishing winds and overnight lows in the 50s to 60s.

Tuesday looks similar to today, with highs mostly in the upper 80s to 90s. Zonal flow will keep the daily chances for afternoon storms in place. SPC has placed a Slight (level 2 of 5) over the central SD counties for Tuesday.

The SPC has also placed a Slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday over SW SD. Modest westerly winds aloft will be over the central High Plains Wednesday with a surface low developing near the CO/KS border. Easterly surface winds north of the low over Nebraska into southern South Dakota will maintain moisture and instability into the area. Storms will form over the High Plains and move eastward through the evening. Hail may occur initially, with damaging gusts possible during the evening.

Unsettled pattern under zonal flow will give the area cooler temps and daily chances for rain and storms for the second half of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued At 1019 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Some low clouds and associated MVFR/LCL IFR conditions may develop over the eastern foothills of the Black Hills and portions of the western SD plains after 09z this morning. These clouds may impact the KRAP terminal though confidence too low at this time to warrant mention in the TAF. IThese low clouds should dissipate after 15z.

TSRA may develop over the Black Hills and northwestern SD after 18z this afternoon. Have kept the PROB30 group in for KRAP for storms this afternoon and evening. These storms will push east/southeast into the western SD plains through the evening hours. LCL MVFR conditions, gusty and erratic winds, and hail may be encountered with any storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1249 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are developing across northeastern WY and far southwestern SD early this afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will last into the evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for these areas.

Hot and dry weather with elevated fire weather conditions (especially over northeastern WY) will continue through the mid week. Cooler and unsettled weather moves into the region by Wednesday and continues through the late week.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.