textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds and snow showers diminishing this evening - Frontal boundary will oscillate over the area for the upcoming week as a series of clippers bring gusty winds, fluctuating temperatures, and some snow at times - Increasing confidence in an arctic air mass settling over the area toward the end of the week

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 133 PM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

20Z upper level analysis has ginormous low over the Hudson Bay area, producing strong cyclonic flow across much of the northern CONUS. Tail end of shortwave in fast northwest flow is currently sliding through the area, producing very gusty northwest winds in a well mixed atmosphere. Temperatures across the forecast area were mainly in the 30s through midday, and are currently on the down-trend as surface cold front shifts south into Nebraska. Current wind headlines are in good shape, as 60 to 70 mph gusts have been observed.

Gusty winds and snow showers will slowly diminish through the afternoon and evening hours. Anticipate headlines will be allowed to expire around 5pm this afternoon as best pressure rises quickly shift southeast of the area. Cold air will settle across the area tonight, with lows falling into the single digits and low teens by Monday morning. Wind chill temperatures will range from near zero to 20 below for a few hours early Monday morning.

Cyclonic upper flow will persist across the Northern Plains for much of the upcoming week, with surface boundary wriggling back and forth across the forecast area. This will bring a range of temperatures from the 20s to the 40s from northeast to southwest each day. Next shortwave will drop through the area late Tuesday, with gusty northwest winds and snow showers possible again.

Probabilities are increasing that the area will see its first quality Arctic intrusion late this week and into the weekend. Guidance is slowly bringing temperatures down, with likely high temperatures settling into the single digits for the weekend as we get closer to the event. Snow chances increase Friday, and extend into the weekend. Accumulations appear to be on the lighter side for now.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 957 PM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

Flurries over the northern Black Hills and WY Black Hills will persist for a few more hours, though visibility is generally remaining VFR. MVFR CIGS over the Black Hills region and northeastern WY will linger overnight into Monday morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Breezy northwest winds will redevelop tomorrow morning, especially across the western SD plains. Gusts to 30-40kt are possible.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.