textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- It will remain hot through the weekend with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

- Still a chance for isolated thunderstorms today and Friday, mainly across the Black Hills and parts of northeast Wyoming. Thunderstorms become a little more numerous this weekend.

- Slightly cooler conditions finally look to return for next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Wednesday) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

18Z upper level analysis has persistent ridge across the central CONUS with upper low spinning off the Pacific Northwest coast. Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area, with some isolated thunderstorm development occurring over the Black Hills. At the surface, there is a weak cool front that has moved into northwestern SD and northeastern WY, evident by a shift to light northerly winds in those areas. Temperatures at noon across the forecast area range from the 80s along and west of the cool front, to the low to mid 90s east of the front.

Temperatures are still expected to top out in the mid 90s to low 100s across the area this afternoon, warmest east of the Black Hills. Isolated storms are expected across the Black Hills and parts of northeast Wyoming this afternoon, with some storms persisting into the evening hours. Lows tonight will be in the 60s to lower 70s.

Upper ridge remains nearly stationary through Friday with temperatures similar to today. Weak cold frontal boundary will slowly drop through the area, with light northeast to east winds expected across the area. Models/CAMS are showing a little better chance for scattered thunderstorms over the Black Hills and northeast Wyoming Friday afternoon, with mainly dry conditions persisting across the SD plains. Very mild temperatures persist into the overnight hours.

Upper ridge shifts a bit east over the weekend. Very warm temperatures will persist across the area, but storm chances become a little better as upper flow becomes more westerly with some weak impulses crossing the Northern Plains.

West to northwest flow becomes a little stronger early next week. This will lead to slightly cooler conditions and a little more unsettled weather for next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday) Issued At 1121 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the terminal locations through the valid period. Isolated/Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon/evening across the Black Hills with locally gusty winds possible. Little confidence of them affecting TAF locations however.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ001- 002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078. WY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ054>056-058>060.