textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled week at times with fluctuating temperatures between disturbances, but no meaningful precipitation expected until at least next weekend.

- Breezy conditions Tuesday and Wednesday for some areas, with wind gusts over 50 MPH possible Wednesday across the Plains north and east of Rapid City.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 213 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Broad, weak western US ridging is forecast to remain in place over the next week or so. With limited strength/amplification, multiple weak disturbances and shortwave troughs are progged to move through northern portions of the ridge and periodically impact our forecast area, especially Tuesday night and again Thursday, but bringing very little if any meaningful precipitation. Precipitation chances increase next weekend as a large storm system moves into the west. Temperatures will fluctuate throughout the week with brief warmups ahead of each system/feature, and then modest cooldowns behind. Saturday currently looks like the warmest day with highs reaching the mid-upper 70s.

We're watching periods of enhanced winds Tuesday across most of the South Dakota Plains, and then Wednesday across the Plains north and east of Rapid City into North Dakota behind a cold front. Tuesday, SE winds will reach 15-25 MPH gusting to 40 MPH. Wednesday, NBM guidance is going as high as 25-35 MPH out of the northwest gusting to 55+ MPH. This feels like it could be coming in a bit "hot" compared to some other guidance, however we do note a jet streak rounding the base of a closed low to our north with 40-50kts of flow at 700mb. In addition, about 30% of GFS ensemble members and 60% of ECMWF ensemble members are gusting over 50 MPH for Buffalo per model meteograms, and diurnal timing is favorable for mixing, although model soundings suggest we may not QUITE mix that high into the column. Currently, the NBM carries a 50-70% of wind gusts exceeding 50 MPH across portions of Harding, Perkins, Butte, and Meade counties. All things considered, there is some potential that wind alerts may be needed for several zones if current guidance remains consistent or increases. For now have capped NBM-generated wind gusts in our official forecast at 55 MPH.

Watching for fire weather concerns...Tuesday features the strongest winds in the north and east, displaced from RHs drying into at least the lower 20% range in the south and west. Wednesday we may see some better overlap, especially across some of the South Dakota plains. Thursday we're a touch less dry with much less wind as well. So, some areas of at least elevated fire weather conditions are certainly possible Tuesday, and especially Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1109 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Some MVFR cigs are finally starting to materialize east of the Black Hills including KRAP, and guidance suggests this lower deck may continue through about 23z/5pm before improvement is possible. Otherwise, breezy southeast flow and higher-level clouds are generally expected over the next 24 hours with no precipitation at the immediate TAF terminals. Winds may increase a bit more toward or around the end of the current forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.