textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold air lingers through Sunday. - Mild temperatures return Monday through the upcoming week with periodic elevated fire weather conditions. - Light precipitation possible Wednesday and again late week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Friday) Issued at 1150 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Upper level analysis shows upper trough axis extending from an upper low in central Manitoba southward through the Northern Plains. Northwest flow has overspread the forecast area and upper level ridging continues to build further upstream across the western US. Surface high pressure remains entrenched across Alberta with a cold air mass lingering across the Northern Plains.

A compact shortwave trough continues to shift through the forecast area with broad, weak upper level ascent. This ascent coupled with steep lapse rates has resulted in spotty snow showers/flurries. These flurries will quickly taper off this afternoon as ascent shifts east of the forecast area. Not expecting any measurable precipitation with these flurries/showers.

Cold air will linger as Canadian high settles through Saskatchewan and Manitoba into the Northern Plains Sunday. Upper ridging will slowly build over the area late Sunday into Monday as westerly flow advects much warmer air into the region for the first half of the week. Predictability and confidence breaks down Wednesday through the latter half of the week. Active northwesterly flow will resume with near daily shortwaves dropping out of Canada. Best chance of precipitation this week will be on Wednesday as a clipper pushes through the region, although total precipitation looks light (<0.1"; most areas will remain dry) with rain/snow mix likely during the day Wednesday given warmer temperatures. Temperature spreads remain high late week given sensitivity to the location of the low-level baroclinic zone and extent of cold air intrusion into the forecast area. Overall, expect above average temperatures for much of next week with colder air more likely next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 1025 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Areas of MVFR CIGs and scattered light snow showers will persist across northeast WY and far western SD through 21Z, then conditions become VFR after as activity shifts into Nebraska. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.