textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming temperatures through mid week. Generally dry, except chances of storms over NW South Dakota.

- Windy Monday and very windy Wednesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through Wednesday.

- Better chances for storms next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 208 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Upper air analysis shows large upper low across Hudson Bay with cyclonic flow extending across the eastern two thirds of the CWA. Upper ridging is sitting across the Pac NW. H70 thermal ridge over the western CONUS will slide eastward tonight, creeping into the central/northern High Plains. But first, another cool night is expected tonight as lows drop into the 40s to mid 30s. The coldest spots again will be across the Black Hills into the NE WY plains. Then the warming trend continues on Monday. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s. A shortwave is expected to round the backside of the upper low, crossing the northern Plains and bringing chances of showers/storms and gusty winds. Severe weather is not anticipated. The precip will be limited to far NW SD, but breezy winds will develop across much of the western SD plains. Gusts up to 40 mph are expected. The thermal ridge axis will continue slightly more eastward by Tuesday, bringing with it temps in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Precip chances will be a repeat of Mondays, with chances across NW SD. Otherwise the rest of the CWA will remain dry. Models then continue to show a vigorous shortwave crossing the Dakotas on Wednesday. Chances for storms will repeat over NW SD...perhaps spilling into the northern Black Hills. The bigger impact will be the strong winds that day as a surface low crosses the eastern Dakotas. Tight pressure gradient could bring gusts of 50-60 mph on Wednesday. Better chances of precip will be possible areawide next weekend

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1113 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Winds in northeast WY will slowly increase through tonight into tomorrow afternoon, as well as shift from SSW to NW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 208 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Generally dry weather will remain for the first half of the week along with gradually warming temperatures. Warmer, dry air tomorrow across the northeastern WY and southwestern South Dakota plains will lead to relative humidities below 20 percent. The dry air will combine with northwest winds gusting up to 40 mph to support critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon and early evening. Breezy conditions and low humidity are again expected Tuesday and Wednesday, which will result in elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for SDZ322-326. WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for WYZ317.