textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances increase tonight across northeastern WY and southern SD.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect Thursday for northwestern South Dakota and the western South Dakota plains. Expect wind gusts up to 55 mph.

- Widespread freezing temperatures expected Thursday night.

- Above average temperatures return for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Upper low is centered near the Four Corners region with upper level ascent overspreading the region. Precipitation will increase across northeastern WY later this afternoon, spreading into southwestern SD into south-central SD after 06z tonight. Precipitation will be focused along the NE/SD border where 0.5-1.25" of rain is possible (probability >0.5" ~70-80%). Precipitation amounts taper off rapidly closer to I-90 with spotty, light amounts north of I-90. Rain ends Thursday morning as the system pushes east.

Upper level trough pushes through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday. Surface low pressure drops out of Canada into the Upper Midwest with a cold front to sweep through the forecast area Thursday morning and afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds expected behind the front with widespread 40 to 55 mph gusts, strongest across northwestern SD and portions of the western SD plains. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for these areas. Transient high wind gusts (> 60 mph) are possible, although coverage and frequency do not warrant High Wind headlines.

Cold air advection and clearing skies will result in widespread freezing/sub-freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning for the majority of the forecast area.

Upper level ridging quickly builds over the western half of the country Friday into the weekend. Above average temperatures are forecast for the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1124 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Early morning aviation concerns have lifted, leaving behind VFR conditions for most of the area. But these conditions won't last long as rain is expected to slowly spread northeast into the area. The rain and lowered clouds should start in NE WY and far SW SD, then shifting east overnight.

MVFR to local IFR conditions are possible across the southern third late today and tonight, lowest over the southern Black Hills. Conds will remain VFR to the north. Winds will shift NW behind a cold front early Thursday , with very gusty NW winds developing later Thursday morning.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 11 PM MDT Thursday for SDZ001-002- 012>014-026-030>032-042-043-072-073-077-078. WY...None.