textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Very hot temperatures will continue through much of next week, with record high temps possible and dangerous heat.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions will continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 233 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Very strong ridging is building into the Great Basin and northern Plains today...and will continue to strengthen over the region on Sunday through the first half of next week. Right now...surface obs show temps in the upper 90s to lower 100s across most locations. Across the Black Hills...temps are in the upper 80s to mid 90s. KUNR has reached 101F in the last 30 minutes, which sets a new daily record high. Satellite and KUDX radar show isolated convection developing across the northern Black Hills. No lightning strikes have seen, but could see a few strikes before precip dissipates late this afternoon. It does appear this precip is reaching the ground, which is helpful considering the dry lightning concern. S/SW flow will continue to bring very hot temperatures to the area over the next several days. Daily H70 temps of 15-20C will bring temps well above 100F through Tuesday...and now Wednesday and possibly Thursday, as models are increasing temps for the second half of the week. Future shifts will need to consider extending heat-related headlines. No precip is expected until at least Thursday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued At 433 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the forecast period. Gusty south/southeast winds will diminish this evening, then redevelop Sunday, primarily on the western SD plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 233 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Strong high pressure over the region for the next several days will bring very hot temperatures to northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, along with dry air and breezy winds. On Sunday, winds will gust up to 35 mph, which combined with the very low humidity of 15% or less, will result in critical fire weather conditions across the northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota plains. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Sunday. Will continue to monitor the potential for critical fire weather conditions next week, which may require extending the Red Flag Warning additional days.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Tuesday for SDZ001-002- 012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for SDZ322>327- 329-332. WY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ054>056-058>060. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ314>317.