textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances continue tonight across northeastern WY and western SD.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect Thursday for northwestern South Dakota and the western South Dakota plains. Expect wind gusts up to 55 mph.

- Widespread freezing temperatures expected Thursday night.

- Above average temperatures return for the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 929 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Overall trend continues, with little change to the forecast through the weekend. Have tweaked PoPs tonight slightly based off CAMs and ongoing precipitation. Kept with the trend of toning down post-frontal winds for Thursday, as the NBM is still running pretty high. Hi-res models and MOS guidance continues to point to widespread gusts 45-55 mph for much of Thursday over the western SD plains. Wind Advisory remains in effect for 11 AM to 10 PM MDT. With much cooler temperatures behind the front. Freeze warning will be needed for Friday morning, however am holding off, given the current headlines in effect for Thursday.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Upper low is centered near the Four Corners region with upper level ascent overspreading the region. Precipitation will increase across northeastern WY later this afternoon, spreading into southwestern SD into south-central SD after 06z tonight. Precipitation will be focused along the NE/SD border where 0.5-1.25" of rain is possible (probability >0.5" ~70-80%). Precipitation amounts taper off rapidly closer to I-90 with spotty, light amounts north of I-90. Rain ends Thursday morning as the system pushes east.

Upper level trough pushes through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday. Surface low pressure drops out of Canada into the Upper Midwest with a cold front to sweep through the forecast area Thursday morning and afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds expected behind the front with widespread 40 to 55 mph gusts, strongest across northwestern SD and portions of the western SD plains. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for these areas. Transient high wind gusts (> 60 mph) are possible, although coverage and frequency do not warrant High Wind headlines.

Cold air advection and clearing skies will result in widespread freezing/sub-freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning for the majority of the forecast area.

Upper level ridging quickly builds over the western half of the country Friday into the weekend. Above average temperatures are forecast for the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued At 1053 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Light precip will continue over most of western SD through the night. Showers have mostly subsided in northeastern WY, though some spotty low clouds will remain for a few more hours into the forecast period. Clouds across the area will diminish as a front moves through by Thurs morning. Behind the front, strong northwest winds are expected. Gusts up to 50kts are possible for the SD plains, and 40kts for northeastern WY.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ Thursday for SDZ001-002-012>014-026-030>032-041>043- 046-047-049-072-073-077-078. WY...None.