textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into this evening across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southwest SD.

- Temperatures at or below-normal, with highs in the 60s to mid 70s, through Thursday. Friday and the weekend look warmer with high temps in the 80s.

- Another round of passing showers and thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Thursday. Isolated severe storms possible on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 139 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Latest satellite imagery shows zonal, west-to-east, flow over the area. Showers, with a few brief thunderstorms, have popped up today but the atmosphere hasnt been primed well so these have been dying off quickly. That is expected to change going into the later afternoon and evening.

For later this afternoon through tonight, thunderstorm development is likely in northeast Wyoming this afternoon. Storms that develop could produce large hail and strong wind gusts. After the storms develop, they are expected to track east to southeastward through the evening. Continued storm development and propagation through the SD plains will be due to a passing cold front that will swing through from the north. Overnight thunderstorms should be below the severe thresholds but locally gusty winds with moderate to heavy rainfall is likely.

For Tuesday, the previously mentioned cold front will finish making its way through the area, taking most of the precip chances with it. Cant rule out the short-lived shower or storm over the Black Hills during the heat of the day though. Highs tomorrow will be in the 60s to low 70s with a breezy northwest wind at around 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 to 30 mph.

Wednesday and Thursday, another round of passing thunderstorms is possible. Wednesdays precip would initiate farther south and drift into the CWA while Thursdays storms could initiate in the CWA. Storm mode would probably support more severe elevated storms with strong winds being the main concern for now. Still zonal flow aloft with plenty of bulk shear available. Projected CAPE values could be a little limiting in terms of widespread severe weather, but with the upslope nature of the topography and with enough wind at the mid and upper levels, a slight risk has been issue for parts northwest Wyoming and far southwest South Dakota for Thursday.

Friday and the weekend, zonal flow weakens and shifts to out of the southwest. This continues the thunderstorms chances but it looks more organized and centered around a passing upper level low from the Pacific Northwest. With this pattern change still being several days out, there is still a lot of uncertainty, but for now, the bulk of the activity looks to be to the north of the Rapid City CWA. Worth checking in for updates through the week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1121 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

MVFR ceilings will linger across the western SD plains this afternoon, with improvement to VFR at KRAP after 18z. Another round of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, especially over NE WY in far SW SD. Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight into Tuesday morning. In addition, widespread MVFR- IFR ceilings are expected behind a cool front as it sags into the region late tonight after 23/08-10z.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.