textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Rain and snow will continue in western SD into this evening

-Mild, dry, and breezy at times the rest of the work week

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Upper trough lifting NE across the region continues to support widespread rain and some snow across western SD. Bulk of rain and snow will fall today, with precip ending this evening as the system lifts out. Areas of fog will continue through tonight as moist saturated ESE flow persists. Winds will also increase tonight as pressure falls ensue ahead of the next impulse, tightening the pressure gradient behind the departing sfc high. Expect breezy winds most areas tonight. Winds will shift SW as a sfc low moves across the region Tue. This will allow things to warm up quickly Tue as dry downslope SW flow spreads over the FA. The strongest winds will be across far SW SD and portions of northeast WY. Very dry air will move into the region as dewpoints fall into the teens across northeast WY into SW SD, supporting elevated to near critical fire weather conditions there. Much warmer Tue with highs in the 60s. A few 70s may be possible across far SW SD. Mean upper troughing over the PAC NW and western Canada will support general SW flow through the remainder week with weak impulses traversing the flow. Expect mainly dry weather weather as these systems fight very dry low levels, although a few sprinkles may be possible as each weak shortwave traverses the region. Highs will generally be in the 60s, with thermal potentials depending on the timing of the thermal ridges ahead each system. This could allow slightly warmer or cooler numbers than what the current forecast has. Upper trough will lift out the Pac NW early next week, with slightly better chances for precip and cooler temps for a day or two.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1131 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Rain/snow will continue to fall across much of western SD (outside of NW SD) before ending late this afternoon/early evening. Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions will persist tonight, even after the precipitation ends, with low CIGS and areas of dense fog. Restricted flight conditions are mostly expected over western SD; however, IFR CIGS/VSBY could creep into NE WY as well late tonight. VFR conditions will return by mid-morning.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.