textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated storms possible over the next few days, but most places can expect to remain dry.

- Near normal temperatures continue through Thursday, then warming for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1248 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Northwest flow continues over the forecast area, as upper ridge sits over the western CONUS. 18Z surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Montana this afternoon, while a frontal boundary sits to our south in Nebraska. Winds are currently breezy out of the northwest with temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s. Current radar has some light returns over south central SD and northeastern WY.

Isolated storms/showers will be possible this afternoon and early evening, however lack of any CAPE and shear should keep any storms sub-severe. Similar setup for Wednesday, with isolated sub-severe storms possible in the lower half of the forecast area. Upper ridge transitions over the northern and central plains on Friday, prompting a warming trend back into the 90s for the weekend. Next disturbance to affect the region moves through on Saturday, however the better forcing currently looks like it will stay mostly north of our region, though still may clip northwestern into central SD.

By Sunday, the upper ridge slides eastward, and southwest flow sets up aloft. Temperatures cool back to near normal for early next week. Multiple weak disturbances will prompt near daily chances for isolated showers and storms in the area. Longer range models show possibly stronger wave moving through the region next Wednesday, but will have to monitor as we move into next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued At 523 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across NE WY and SW SD.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.