textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of light rain and snow moves in from the southwest late tonight. Precip lasts well into Tuesday.

- General northwest flow will keep unsettled weather in the area through Thursday.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 955 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

No changes needed to the forecast. Broad cyclonic flow continues across much of the CONUS. Weak upper ridging over the CWA is resulting in quiet weather...for now. The next wave is crossing CO/WY, heading toward the CWA. This will bring precipitation over the next 24 hours. Precip will be limited to near the SD border in NE WY, the Black Hills area, and the SD plains south and east of the Black Hills. Forecast QPF totals are generally in the 0.10-0.33" range, though a few locations may receive a little more. Snow amounts may be similar to Monday morning, with 1 to 3 inches over the Black Hills...and minor amounts across the surrounding foothills that will melt quickly Tuesday morning. Wouldn't be surprised if the plains across Fall River, Custer, to Oglala Lakota counties saw minor accumulations in the early morning hours, as well. Precip will end by Tue evening. The next disturbance will bring minor amounts of QPF on Wednesday. Drier air toward the end of the week will result in elevated fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 138 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

While the day started with rain and snow around the area, the heavier precip has moved east. So NE WY and W SD are looking at drier weather and clearing skies. This won't last long because another round of precip will move into the area from the SW late tonight and last into tomorrow. With the cooler air in place, rain and snow is likely tonight, again, before the precip switches over to rain as temps warm tomorrow. Snowfall totals tonight into tomorrow morning will be highest in the higher elevations of the Black Hills at around 1 to 3 inches, isolated higher amounts around 4 inches can't be ruled out.

As far as the rest of the week goes, it's not looking too bad. An overall northwest flow in the upper levels will keep some low-end PoPs in the forecast through the next several days. The exception is a ridge of high pressure later this week would give clear and sunny skies Thursday night through Friday night. There is even an argument for dry and sunny skies on Saturday but there is a slight chance for showers over the Black Hills Saturday afternoon. Beginning Sunday, the NW flow returns, bringing back the low-end PoPS.

The EFI tables are not highlighting highly elevated winds this week. That being said, Wednesday is looking like the next day where the winds could be higher. Winds around the area tonight through tomorrow night will be around 5 to 10 mph, not too bad. Wednesday is when the area will see a change from these lighter winds. Winds will swing to the northwest and pick up speeds to around 10 to 20 mph, gusts upwards of 30 mph. Thursday will be similar. Wind speeds like this aren't bad for what we are used to but it's a change from what we'll experience through Tuesday night. So just something to keep in mind, that wind speeds will be a touch higher Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will be on the rise this week as well. Overnight lows will be stuck in the upper 20s to low 30s through Thursday night. Afternoon highs will warm much more quickly. Tomorrow's (Tuesday) highs will be in the 40s to near 50 but Wednesday and Thursday will be much warmer with highs in the 50s to near 60. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be warmer still with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued At 1045 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MVFR cigs continue tonight into the first half of the day Tuesday, and with abundant low-level moisture given our recent rounds of precip, patchy fog can't be ruled out as well (although confidence in any fog arriving at KRAP or KGCC is low and not included in the current forecast...especially with low stratus dominating). IFR conditions across the Black Hills area are also expected overnight. Our next shortwave disturbance will bring rain and snow in from the southwest Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. Confidence remains highest at KRAP and no timing adjustments were needed based on the latest CAMs this evening (13-20z/7am-2pm window). Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys are expected with this, before improving again as the precip moves out. CAMs are also showing some diurnal, somewhat convective- looking shower potential mid-afternoon into early evening Tuesday across the region, with the best chance flipping to KGCC for this round (we continue a PROB30 there with adjusted timing in the latest TAF). Some potential may exist at KRAP as well later in the day. Winds will generally be 10kts or less over the next 24-36 hours.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.