textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to track through the far southwestern corner of the area today. Severe weather is not expected at this time but stronger storm cells could produce gusty winds and small hail.

- A chilly, below-normal night is in store for some tonight. NE WY and NW SD will see overnight lows near the mid-30s. Elsewhere will see lows near 40 or warmer.

- The warming trend begins tomorrow. A much warmer with near- critical to critical fire weather pattern returns next week.

- The elevated fire weather conditions will be due to hot temperatures nearing 90 degrees, low humidities, and breezy conditions.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Next Saturday) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

The forecast for western SD and NE WY could be broken up into 3 parts: the continuing showers and isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon through this evening, below-normal overnight temps tonight into tomorrow morning, and the very warm weather next week.

Currently, showers and thunderstorms are tracking southeast through NE WY and SW SD. These showers will continue on this track through the rest of today and are expected to fade out later this evening. While no severe weather is expected, the stronger cells could produce gusty winds and small hail.

Saturday night into Sunday morning could be on the chilly side for folks in NE WY, the Black Hills, and far northwestern SD. Overnight lows look to dip into the low to mid 30s. The rest of the SD plains look to dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Looking to next week, upper ridge slides over the Rockies and into the northern and central plains. This will give much warmer temperatures and dry conditions Monday through the rest of the next week. Main forecast concern in this time frame will be increased fire weather conditions given the hot temperatures, dry air, and breezy winds.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 1126 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. The exception will be across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and far southwestern SD, where scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through early evening. MVFR conditions with gusty winds can be expected with any shower or storm. Gradual clearing and VFR conditions return for these areas by mid evening, and will continue through Sunday with no aviation concerns to round out the rest of the weekend.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM MDT Sunday for SDZ001-002-014- 078. WY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM MDT Sunday for WYZ054>056- 058>060.