textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Light precip of mostly rain showers will continue to taper and end this afternoon.
- Breezy northwest winds across western SD and northeastern WY this afternoon and evening peak with gusts of 35-45 mph.
- Above average temperatures and mostly dry weather continues into early next week
MONDAY AND THE WORK WEEK
The H5 ridging currently over the West Coast noses into the High Plains as another short-wave crests its axis on Monday. The day should end up in the 40s and 50s for a third consecutive day for many, making quick work of remaining snow pack.
Deterministic runs of GFS/EC have been progging the ejecting wave increasingly farther east over the past 48 hours leaving its projected influence over the Black Hills waning. Latest runs of the NBM have reduced PoPs over central South Dakota to under 25% and the Black Hills to under 15% on Monday evening.
Breezy upslope northwesterly winds and some weak forcing for ascent (PVA and jet streak dynamics) account for the 35% PoPs for the Black Hills on Tuesday evening. PoPs for this time period have been slipping on the SD plains (under 15%). QPF looks light.
Mild temps continue through the remainder of the work week with Thursday currently representing the week's zenith. Temps may peak in the 60s with the ridge axis overhead and H8 temps progged as warm as 10C. Rapid City Airport's warm records for the date are both in peril: The warmest low for 2/5 is 34F in 1952. Our forecast has 36F downtown and 31F at the airport. The afternoon's forecast of 64 is already one degree warmer than the record set just two years ago (63 | 2024).
Guidance begins to diverge at this point, generally agreeing on brisk northwesterly H5 flow, but disagreeing on where to set it and its accompanying sfc baroclinicity. Will the colder air be relegated to areas east of the Missouri River or will it pour over the ranch land of western South Dakota and come to rest against the Black Hills? It's too far out to be confident.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 1022 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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