textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Wildfire smoke will linger over the area through Thursday night and for the far western counties, the smoke could linger into Friday.

- Mainly dry this week with very little, if any, chances for rain The exception to this is south-central SD where showers and storms are possible late Thursday afternoon and again Friday night.

- Hot weather returns tomorrow with the hot, highs in the 90s last into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1047 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

No major changes to the forecast this evening. A cold front is forecast to move through the area around 21Z Thursday, but temps will still climb to the upper 90s before it comes through. Precip associated with the front has trended down and is unlikely (<10%). Extremely dry conditions (RH < 15%) are still expected, primarily in the western parts of the CWA, along with gusty winds associated with the front creating critical fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Tuesday) Issued at 1156 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

It has been another day of sunny but hazy/smokey skies over the CWA. The smoke had a little bit of an impact to the air quality with sensors reaching the Moderate stage as of the early afternoon. Looking ahead, afternoon temps will be in the 70s to 80s with continued sunny, buy hazy, skies. Tonight will be calm and clear with overnight temps dipping into the 50s to lower 60s.

For Thursday and Friday, upper level ridging looks to return to the area, which will bring warmer temps and continued mostly dry weather. Daily highs will be in the upper 80s to 90s and overnight lows will be in the 50s to low 60s. Temps that warm and very little moisture will cause RH values to drop to around 10 to 20 percent. A passing front will cause northwest winds to increase Thursday. That combination of stronger winds and low humidity will elevate fire weather conditions. Because of that, a Red Flag Warning has been issued. See the Fire Weather section below for more information.

There are a couple chances for rain on Thursday and again Friday. The previously mentioned front could be the trigger to get some thunderstorms going in south-central SD Thursday afternoon. Some of those storms could be strong to severe with hail and wind being main concerns if the storms are able to get going. Another round of storms is possible Friday night for parts of central SD.

The 90s and mostly dry weather will last through the weekend with hints of slightly cooler weather for the start of next week. Storms and severe weather is a concern as the forecasted wind pattern has been known to produce storms and severe weather and machine learning severe weather models are targeting the Black Hills with elevated chances of severe storms beginning Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued At 1047 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. A cold front will drape through the area Thursday afternoon, shifting winds to more NW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1156 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for parts of NW SD and far SW SD. It will go into effect Thursday at 11AM MDT and is set to expire at 8PM MDT.

Hot and dry weather begins to move back into the area tomorrow. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected beginning tomorrow afternoon for parts of the SD plains. Low humidity, down to near 10 to 20% for those in the western part of the CWA, is possible. And with an incoming front, wind speeds and gusts will increase. With the increased wind speeds and lowered RH values, the Red Flag Warning was issued.

Friday and the weekend looks like conditions could be elevated but low confidence of reaching Red Flag Warning thresholds.