textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds and elevated fire weather conditions continue into this evening.

- Multiple rounds of rain/snow this evening through Sunday afternoon, with widespread accumulating snow potential, especially Saturday into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 129 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Current upper air models and Water Vapor show shortwave over the Dakotas, upper trough over the Great Lakes region. 18Z surface analysis shows associated low over western ND, with frontal boundary passing through the forecast area. Very strong west to northwest winds are ongoing, with some observed 70 to 90 mph gusts this afternoon. Temperatures currently sit in the upper 50s to around 70. Very strong winds will continue behind the front into this evening, diminishing after around 02-03Z. No real changes to the current headlines for today, though based off models, the High Wind Warning may need to be extended a couple hours for some areas.

Attention then turns to our winter event, beginning tonight and running through Sunday. Mid-level forcing will allow on and off precipitation tonight through Friday, with some light accumulations between a trace and 2 inches for the Black Hills and areas around and north of I-90. Larger concern will be Saturday into Sunday morning, as another shortwave brings additional energy and moisture into the region. Models have been pretty consistent in putting advisory to warning criteria snow over much of the region. NBM probabilities of snow accumulations > 4 inches sit in the 80-95% range over the northern and Wyoming Black Hills, and in the 60 to 80% range over northwest into central SD. WSSI probabilities for moderate impacts from winter weather sit in the 30-60 percent range over the northern Black Hills and foothills, as well as northwest into central SD. Winter headlines will likely be needed for Saturday into Sunday especially over northwest SD and the northern Black Hills, however have opted to wait on headlines given the current wind and fire weather headlines ongoing. Timing and location of the baroclinic zone will play a role in potential headlines, as some areas further to the south may see more rain, or a rain/snow mix.

Precipitation tapers off during the day Sunday, and upper ridge begins to build over the western CONUS. This will support dry a warming trend early next week back to well above normal temperatures. Long range ensembles hint at potential for some areas to reach into the 80s later next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued At 509 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Strong northwest winds of 25 to 35kt with gusts of up to 50kt will continue across western SD through this evening. Locally higher gusts and LCL MVFR conditions are possible near rain/snow showers. Winds will drop off quickly after 13/08z.

Additionally, while much of the area will remain dry, isolated light rain or snow showers are possible overnight across the Black Hills and northeast Wyoming. Local MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible with some of the heavier pcpn bands.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 129 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Warm, dry, and very windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical fire wx through early this evening - a Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of the NE WY plains into the southwestern and western South Dakota plains. While some areas may not quite reach critical RH thresholds (less than 15%), very strong pre-frontal winds will result in critical conditions.

The winds behind the front are expected to be stronger with sustained winds of 30-45 mph, gusting to 60 to 70 over much of the area with gusts of up to 80 mph possible over the western SD plains.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ321-322-324>326-329-331>335. WY...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ054>060. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315-317.