textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- A hot, dry, and breezy weather pattern is expected this week resulting in near-critical to critical fire weather conditions.

- The next real chance of passing showers and thunderstorms holds off until at least Thursday, if not Friday. That being said, there is a small possibility of isolated light showers near the Black Hills Monday night.

- The Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow, Monday, has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for many counties in southwestern South Dakota. Other counties in northern SD are still in the Fire Weather Watch.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and slightly higher relative humidities behind the front may result in a modest lull in fire weather conditions Tuesday, before conditions worsen again for Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Forecasted upper level ridging will bring back the dry and hot weather to the area.

Starting with tonight, continued northwest flow has kept the slight chances (10 to 20%) for light rain showers near the Black Hills for the rest of this afternoon. So far, any returns on the radar have been short lived, weak, and elevated. Rain chances diminish late this afternoon, overnight lows will be in the 40s, winds will remain on the lighter side at around 5 to 10 mph out of the east-to-southeast.

The heat is on tomorrow. Warm air will move into the area, driven by southerly winds, causing afternoon highs to reach the 80s and 90s. With low humidity and strong winds, fire weather is looking likely. Then, a passing cold front will swing winds to the west- to-northwest and cause winds to pick up speed. Gusts upwards of 30 to 40 mph are likely, high-end, isolated gusts near 45 to 50 mph are possible. As the front tracks over the Black Hills, isolated showers are possible, low end chances again due to lack of moisture, late Monday into Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be cooler, due to Monday's front. Highs will be back in the 70s with decreasing wind speeds through the day.

The rest of the week looks hot and breezy with highs back into the 80s to low 90s. Next chance for passing showers and storms is late Thursday into Friday. But these chances are low-end again.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 528 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 104 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

A near-critical to critical fire weather pattern is forecast to develop across western South Dakota starting Monday and continue through much of the week. The most critical days at this time appear to be Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Upper level ridge will push very warm air into the plains, expected highs will reach the 80s to 90s. With no real push of extra moisture, relative humidities will drop to well below 20%. A passing front will kick wind speeds up. Ahead of the front, winds will be out of the south-to-southwest at around 10 to 20 mph. But as the front tracks through, winds will swing to the west-to-northwest at around 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 to 40 mph. Some high-end gusts could be even higher, nearing 45 mph.

With all that in mind, a Red Flag Warning has replaced the Fire Weather Watch for several counties in western SD. Other counties in western SD are still in the Fire Weather Watch.