textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front bisecting the forecast area today with cooler and more moist conditions north of I-90, and warmer and drier with critical fire weather conditions along and south of I-90.

- Gusty northwest winds behind the front tonight, especially across central and eastern portions of the forecast area east of the Black Hills corridor.

- Major pattern change and increasingly active weather for the rest of the week with a weaker system bringing rain and snow Tuesday night through Wednesday night, and a wetter system Thursday through Friday night with widespread snow accumulations.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A strong cold front bisects our CWA early this afternoon, with much cooler/more moist conditions generally north of I-90 with northerly winds, and a significantly warmer/drier airmass along and south of I- 90 with westerly winds supporting critical fire weather conditions (and an ongoing attendant RED FLAG WARNING). The front has been somewhat stationary today, but recently drifted into Rapid City supporting an immediate 10 degree temperature drop along with increasing RH values. The front will eventually/more progressively push south into Nebraska this evening, finally ending our stretch of critical fire weather for the foreseeable future. Gusty north- northwest winds remain expected behind the front tonight (possibly gusting to 45 MPH at least for a few hours) with light rain/snow showers also expected. QPF amounts should remain very light...a few hundredths of an inch. Forecast edits and updates today have been focused on adjusting temps/RH for the position of the cold front, and also broadbrushed PoPs out a bit for tonight/Tuesday morning. Still not out of the question that winds may approach Wind Advisory criteria in a few spots, but overall the potential still seems marginal and low confidence.

Tuesday kicks off a much more active weather pattern for the rest of the week into next weekend, with cooler temperatures, an increase in moisture, and at least two systems impacting our area. The weaker of the two systems...an open shortwave trough...crosses the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A mix of snow, sleet, and rain is possible with this feature, with a light coating to 3 inches of snow possible with the highest totals in the Black Hills as well as across the eastern and south-central Plains. A wetter system...a closed low...then follows for Thursday through Friday night, and this is now looking like the "main event" with perhaps a break afterward for the weekend. QPF has trended higher with this system, ranging from 0.25 inches along the Nebraska border to 0.50 inches along and north of I-90, and possibly a bit higher over the Black Hills. Rain Thursday will transition to a wintry mix Thursday night and then snow by Friday, with at least several inches of accumulation looking likely for most of the CWA. Would like to watch model trends a bit longer before getting too specific on possible snow totals as some uncertainly remains in exact storm track and QPF amounts.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 501 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Gusty west winds will shift to the northwest after 31/01z as a strong cold front moves through. Behind the cold front, areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS will develop over northeastern WY/western SD along with light rain/snow showers.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 143 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Critical fire weather conditions have materialized early this afternoon generally along and south of I-90, which lies ahead of a cold front slowly starting to push in from the north. Expect westerly winds this afternoon to switch to north this evening post- front (north winds already in place north of I-90) with a few light rain/snow showers possible. A RED FLAG WARNING remains in effect through 8 PM for these areas along and ahead of the front.

A significant pattern change will take hold of the region from Tuesday onward through the rest of the week and into next weekend, with much cooler, more moist conditions. Two storm systems will impact the region...a weaker system with rain and snow Tuesday night through Wednesday night, and a wetter system Thursday through Friday night with widespread snow accumulations possible. Both systems will likely produce wetting rains (or snow water equivalent) across portions of the region. Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected to return until at least Sunday next weekend.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ319>326-329-332>334. WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314>318.