textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures, dry weather, and elevated to near critical fire weather conditions expected today through Tuesday.

- Strong winds possible Thursday and Friday

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 350 AM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

Current upper air analysis depicts ridge over the western US with deepening trough over the Great Lakes. The Northern Plains sits under northwest flow, a weak shortwave is crossing the region with the only sensible weather impacts being increasing upper level cloud cover. Temperatures have dropped to 20 to 30 degrees over the western SD plains and to the 30s to low 40s over the Black Hills and northeastern WY.

Upper level ridge builds over the western US through the early week, bringing warmer temps and mostly dry weather to the region. Temps will climb to 10 to 15 degrees above average with highs in the 50s to low 60s through Tuesday. Sfc winds will remain breezy through Tuesday as well. The dry weather, above average temperatures, and breezy conditions will support elevated fire weather conditions. More details in the Fire Wx discussion.

Pattern shift commences by the mid week with a series of upper level trofs and attendant cold fronts moving through the region. The first system will move through the region Tuesday, bringing breezy northwest winds and low chances for rain showers and high elevation snow showers to portions of far western SD and the Black Hills. The next systems will move through Thursday and Friday as an upper trof dives into the Northern Plains. Not expecting much in terms of significant precip with these systems with LREF probs showing <10% chances for greater than 0.1" QPF with either system. However, there's increasing confidence that strong northwest winds may develop Thursday and Friday. With these systems being 5 to 6 days out, still not sure as to how strong these winds will get but given the pattern and strong CAA behind these fronts, could see at least advisory level (45mph+) gusts or higher Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued At 350 AM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 350 AM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

Dry weather and above average temperatures will support widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions through Tuesday. Temperatures this afternoon will reach into the 50s to low 60s across much of the area with minimum RHs dropping to 17 to 30%. The warm and dry conditions combined with westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph, gusting to 30 mph (with some gusts to 40 mph across northwest SD) will support widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across western SD and northeastern WY.

Similar conditions and widespread elevated fire wx concerns will develop Monday afternoon, though RHs will be slightly higher (25 to 40%). A cold front will move through the region on Tuesday with winds shifting to the northwest and increasing to 20 to 30 mph sustained, gusting to 45 to 50 mph across the western SD plains. Not expecting much precip out of the cold front as it moves through with the northern Black Hills seeing the highest chances of seeing some light rain/snow showers.

Elevated fire wx concerns return Thursday into Friday as dry cold fronts and accompanying strong northwest winds move through the region.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.