textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday and then Thursday/Friday - Cold front moves through Tuesday bringing gusty winds and light QPF, likely upslope-enhanced for the northern Black Hills - Strong winds possible Thursday and Friday

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 143 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

20z surface analysis had west/northwest flow over the CWA with modest gradient creating gusty winds in a few spots on the western SD plains. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the western CONUS poking into the northern Plains ahead of a zippy shortwave over BC/AB. Stream of sun-filtered high clouds ahead of the wave over the CWA. Effect of this shortwave the main short term concern. Then, attention turns toward the end of the week.

Tonight/Tuesday, BC/AB shortwave moves southeast into the Great Lakes dragging a cold front into the area. Modest cold air advection expected with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind it starting late tonight into Tuesday morning. 25-40kt boundary layer winds will develop over the squeeze areas just northeast of the Black Hills with a 40-70% chance of >45mph gusts. Have hoisted Wind Advisory to account. Trend for ensemble guidance has been slightly wetter as tail end of shortwave moves through Tuesday afternoon per weak QG/frontogenetic forcing. How much moisture is available is a concern given antecedent dry air, but Froude numbers/0-2km mean RH favorable for a 6-9 hour period of upslope enhancement for the northern Black Hills Tuesday. SLRs also a concern given slow boundary layer cooling during the day. Suspect a couple inches of snow will fall over the highest elevations of the Black Hills with the potential for locally higher amounts. HREF has 50% chance >0.25" QPF for the northern Black Hills, but the 25-75th percentile is 0.1-0.7" inches largely due to significant difference in moisture for NAM-based members vs drier others. Later forecasts can hone in on potential for winter headlines if trends become clear. Temperatures will be near guidance.

Wednesday will feature a lull in the wind with a tight temperature gradient from west (warmest) to east (coldest).

Thursday/Friday, fast-moving upper trough with embedded shortwaves will move into the northern plains. It will propel two cold fronts through the area. First arrives early Thursday and second during the day Friday. Moderate cold air advection will combine with 35-60kt forecast lower tropospheric wind profiles to produce potentially strong wind gusts. Probabilistic guidance has been consistent over the past few days with High Wind Warning level gusts both days, but especially for Friday. ~50% chance 60mph gusts Thursday and 50-80% chance 60+mph gusts Friday. For the plains northeast of the Black Hills Friday, the chance of 70mph gusts is 30-50%. Suspect headlines will be needed. Moisture will be limited. Temperatures Thursday 5-15F above normal, but then near/slightly below for Friday. The weekend looks mostly quiet with temperatures near guidance, although ensemble spreads are 15-20F.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 436 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions expected through Tuesday morning. An upper level trough will move through the region Tues, brining some rain and high elevation snow showers to the region. MVFR and local IFR conds possible across the northern half. Otherwise, breezy northwest winds will develop Tues with gusts over 35 knots possible at the terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 143 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

Relative humidities on Tuesday (35-55%) will be higher than today, but northwest winds gusting to 30-50mph will create elevated fire weather conditions. Light precipitation on the plains won't amount to much, but wetting precipitation for the northern Black Hills (1-3" snow) is increasingly likely.

Elevated fire weather concerns return Thursday and Friday as a pair of cold fronts move through the region bringing strong northwest winds with gusts of 50-60mph+ possible. Not much moisture expected with these fronts so wetting precipitation looks unlikely.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for SDZ001-012-013- 031-072-073-078. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for SDZ041. WY...None.