textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather pattern continues with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms today throughout this coming week.

- Overall severe weather risk will remain isolated today and Monday, but will increase Tuesday with damaging winds and large hail possible.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 157 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

An area of low pressure just to our west will support additional rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today and Monday. Today, cells are especially firing over the Black Hills corridor (although a few cells have been noted in northeastern Wyoming too) and will push east with time. Today's environment features modest CAPE, but very little wind shear, so the severe weather threat seems very limited/isolated and brief in duration with a "pulse" storm mode. It is worth noting that any storms that can track east off the terrain into the South Dakota plains will have access to the best instability and sfc moisture per mesoanalysis and short-term model projections, yet the lack of shear will tend to limit storm organization and longevity. Monday, wind shear increases, but instability remains modest, so the overall severe threat remains low/isolated with perhaps gusty winds or hail on a few of the stronger cells. Northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and adjacent South Dakota plains will again be favored for isolated to scattered activity. High temperatures both days will generally top out in the 70s, with some 80s possible across our southern South Dakota counties.

Tuesday is starting to look more concerning, with a significant increase in both deep-layer wind shear (as high as 30-40kts) overlapping with higher instability (possibly 2,000 J/kg SBCAPE), putting us at risk for a multicell to supercell storm mode with greater risks for damaging winds and large hail...all ahead of a shortwave and cold front. Moisture continues to look good as well. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across most of our South Dakota counties, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across northeastern Wyoming. We'll definitely be keeping an eye on Tuesday's environment in the days ahead. Storm initiation currently looks to occur between 1 PM and 3 PM.

An unsettled pattern with daily chances of at least isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week. High temperatures by next weekend may make a run back toward the 90s.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 549 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will fade out this evening, leaving behind VFR conditions through the TAF period. Chances for showers and storms return Monday afternoon with any precip drifting in from the south. Winds will go through some changes, both in speed and direction. As a surface high moves over the CWA, winds will decrease in speed and change direction from a northwest direction to the southeast. Once the winds swing around to the SE, the speeds will increase to around 10 to 20 knots beginning around 18 to 20z and lasting well into Monday night.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.