textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy with light rain/snow Wednesday

- Elevated fire weather conditions return for Thursday and Friday

- Another round of colder temperatures and chances for precipitation return over the weekend

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1251 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Current upper air water vapor analysis depicts large-scale ridging over western CONUS, with the ridge axis stretching from southern Alberta down to the southern CA/AZ, northwesterly flow over the forecast area, and troughing off the east coast with a Nor'easter off the coast of Nova Scotia. Another surface-low is positioned over southwestern Ontario, with a weak cold front extending from the low down through western KS. Satellite shows widespread high cloud cover over much of the forecast region, while radar is picking up some light returns over northwest SD with little to no precip reaching the ground. Surface observations currently show breezy northwesterly winds behind the cold front, gusting up to 40 mph, and cooler temperatures, mainly in the 30s and 40s.

Another shortwave will move over the forecast region late tonight into Wednesday, brining snow and rain showers along with breezy conditions. Due to model variability, there is still uncertainty for QPF totals. Trends continue to lean towards >0.10 inch across much of northeastern WY and the northern/central Black Hills (~45 to 75 percent chance), while elsewhere amounts between a trace and 0.05 inches are more likely (~70 to 35 percent, respectively, per NBM- CONUS). Winds will begin to pick up after 16Z, starting in northeast WY then spreading into northwestern SD, with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts. Temperatures will start off cool in the morning before warming into the 40s by the afternoon, resulting in chances for mixed precip over northeast WY and northwestern SD before switching to mostly rain. Best chances for accumulating snow will be over the higher elevation northern Black Hills regions, where an inch or two may be possible.

Mild and dry conditions will return Thursday and Friday, with breezy northwest winds resulting in elevated fire weather conditions with afternoon relative humidities dropping to the low 20s and upper teens for some areas at times. Another shot at colder temperatures and light precipitation will return this weekend as another disturbance slides across south-central Canada.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued At 442 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Isolated light rain/snow is possible this afternoon and evening, mainly Black Hills, portions of NE WY, and NW SD with transient MVFR conditions in heavier cores. Otherwise, most areas will remain VFR through tonight. Another disturbance moves in Wednesday morning into the afternoon, bringing light precipitation once again. MVFR/IFR conds will be possible as precipitation moves through, mainly over northwestern SD, the Black Hills, and parts of northeastern Wyoming.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.