textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Compact shortwave may bring patchy light snow overnight/Saturday, but with little accumulation - Cold temperatures for the weekend - Warm front Monday brings mild weather most of next week with elevated fire weather conditions at times

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Friday) Issued at 936 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

04z surface analysis had weak cool front from southern MT into western NE with high pressure from north-central Canada into the northern Plains. Water vapour loop had upper trough from SK to the southern plains with the nearest compact shortwave over central MT, which had a small area of snow per regional radar loop. Disposition of these features will drive the forecast in the short term.

Rest of tonight through Saturday afternoon, upper trough moves east with compact MT shortwave slipping southeast into the CWA. Moderately steep lapse rates and weak lift, but limited moisture. Latest high resolution guidance suggests some of this snow will make it into the CWA with forecast Froude values suggesting a touch of upslope snow over the northern Black Hills. Don't expect much on the plains given paucity of moisture. Probability of >0.05" QPF <20%, so impacts will be low. Introduced low PoPs to account with earlier forecast update. Behind shortwave, cold air slips back in as sprawling Canadian high strengthens.

Sunday, Canadian high dominates, but return flow begins in the west ahead of a warm front that will move through Monday. Warm front propelled by upper ridge building into the northern Plains. Upper ridge shifts east mid-week as upper flow becomes west/northwest with a series of low moisture shortwave troughs zipping through the region. Temperatures spreads increase quite a bit by Friday with decreasing confidence on whether cold air oozes back in for next weekend or mild weather continues.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 941 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

MVFR CIGs and light snow showers are possible across the northern Black Hills from early this morning into the afternoon hours. Light snow showers may impact the KRAP terminal during the late morning hours but confidence too low to mention in TAFs. The clouds and precip will move out of the area after 22/21z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 936 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

An upper level ridge will bring a return to mild weather and minimum relative humidities in the 20s for Monday and Tuesday leading to elevated fire weather conditions, especially given breezy west/northwest winds Tuesday. Drier air may develop for the end of next week, but confidence is lower given increasing temperatures spreads.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.