textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind Advisory remains in effect for northwestern South Dakota with gusts up to 45 to 50 MPH.

- Active northwest flow through will persist through the week with unsettled weather.

- Cooler temperatures persist through Wednesday before warming trend into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 113 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Water vapor imagery shows active northwestern flow across the Northern Plains. Closed upper low is centered over western Ontario with another closed low over central CA coast. The surface cold front pushed through the area around 11z this morning and now stretches from the surface low in central Ontario southwestward through southern NE.

Weak mid-level frontogenesis coupled with steep low-level lapse rates have resulted in scattered showers this afternoon, mainly south of I-90. Given dry boundary layer and weak forcing, expect minimal precipitation amounts.

Well-mixed boundary layer with 35-40 knot winds atop the boundary layer will support gusts up to 45-50 MPH this afternoon across northwestern SD. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of the northwestern SD plains through 6 PM MDT.

Active northwest flow persists through mid-week with cooler than average temperatures (5-10F below normal) before warmer air filters back into the region with seasonable to above average (~5-10F) temperatures for the latter half of the week into the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday as upper shortwave trough drops into the Northern Plains.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1141 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected today. A cold front crossing the area will bring gusty winds until this evening. The strongest winds will be during the afternoon across NW SD with gusts up to 45kt. Light showers (and perhaps MVFR CIGS) are also possible this afternoon and evening. If the rain showers linger across the Black Hills late enough, it could change to snow, resulting in potential MVFR/IFR conditions. VFR conditions will return tonight.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012-013- 073-078. WY...None.