textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty southwest winds expected over northeastern Wyoming and the Black hills through this morning.

- Areas of fog over parts of northwestern SD this morning.

- Above normal temperatures continue the rest of the week before a cold front moves through Saturday night into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Current satellite and upper air models show upper ridge over the northern and central plains this morning, with upper trough off the west coast. Most recent surface analysis shows low over southeastern MT, with boundary stretching through the Black Hills into central Nebraska. Areas of fog and dense fog are ongoing for parts of northwestern into central SD. Strong downslope winds have developed over the northern foothills.

Surface low will shift eastward this morning and associated front will lift up through the forecast area. Tight pressure gradient will allow for some strong southwest winds through the morning, as well as downsloping potential over the northern foothills. High Wind Warning remains in effect for the northern foothills, while the Wind Advisory remains in effect for the central foothills. Some CAMs do point at possible light precipitation later this morning into the afternoon near the boundary, however ensemble probabilities are very low, have kept mention of PoPs out of the forecast for now. Following the warm front, expect near-record to record high temperatures for Christmas day. HREF probabilities of MaxT > 65F range from 50-90% from Rapid City down into south central SD.

The upper ridge will still affect the forecast area on Friday, resulting in another warm day, but attention then turns to a pattern change on Saturday. Ridge slides eastward as upper low treks across southwestern Canada. Disturbance will trek across the northern plains later Saturday into Sunday, ushering in colder temperatures as well as some light precipitation chances. Temperatures rebound again on Monday as upper ridge builds back over the west coast into the Rockies, resulting in warmer and dry conditions the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued At 443 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Gusty southwest winds will continue across parts of northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills through this morning. Gusts in excess of 45 knots are possible at times.

MVFR/IFR conditions in patchy dense fog will continue over northwestern into central SD. Fog will dissipate after 15z.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for SDZ002-013- 014-032-078. High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ025. Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ026-072-074. WY...High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ060.