textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Arctic air and periods of light snow flurries continue through tonight.

- Warming trend over the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 254 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

Northwest upper flow continues over the region as broad upper trough sits over much of the CONUS, shortwave sits over Saskatchewan into northern MT. Recent surface analysis depicts high pressure over north dakota this afternoon. Temperatures currently sit in the negative single digits to just above 0, with relatively light winds. Radar has some widespread weak returns as we see areas getting very light snow flurries off and on today.

Surface high will maintain cold temperatures through Saturday morning, with overnight wind chills dipping -15 to -25. Some areas will be borderline for cold headlines, however brief enough that we'll forego any headlines for now. Weak low level warm air advection will bring a bit warmer temperatures for Saturday, with highs rebounding to the teens and low 20s. Another cold front moves through late Saturday into Sunday, but scant moisture will likely limit light precipitation to the Black Hills, or perhaps some light flurries elsewhere. Positively tilted upper ridge briefly makes its way over the northern plains on Monday, bringing warmer temperatures into the region. Highs will climb back into the upper 30s to mid 40s for Monday, however a return to northwest upper flow may drop temps again by mid-week to near or just below normal, but some uncertainty remains with baroclinic zone once again setting up near the CWA.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 927 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through most of the TAF period. Light snow and associated MVFR/LCL IFR conditions will move into northwestern SD and the Black Hills after 25/00z.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.