textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy Saturday.

- Near or above normal temperatures through the forecast period.

- Mostly dry conditions expected over the next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 922 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Upper trough and associated cool front will move through the region Saturday. This system will bring a slight chance of showers or sprinkles across NW SD Sat morning. Cool front will move through Sat morning, with gusty NW winds developing and persisting through the afternoon. A few gusts over 40 mph can be expected, esp in the lee of the Black Hills. Cooler Sat night with lows in the 30s and 40s. Warming up early next week with 80s expected for Monday and Tues most places. Slightly cooler mid next week behind the next cool front. Dry through next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 142 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show west-northwest flow aloft, as upper ridge has built over the western CONUS, with the upper high located over the four corners region. 19Z surface analysis shows a frontal boundary running north/south through eastern Wyoming. Satellite shows clear skies across the forecast area. Temperatures sit in the upper 60s and 70s, with breezy winds out of the south.

Little change to the overall pattern is expected over the next week, with zonal to northwest flow aloft hanging around through the period. Mild Upper ridge remains mostly stagnant through the weekend, building a bit early next week. This will prompt warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with highs reaching into the 80s for some areas. Next disturbance comes Saturday as a wave rides the northwest flow through the Dakotas. Current models keep the bulk of better forcing in North Dakota, but some light precipitation could reach down into northwestern SD. Limited moisture in the region, so any precipitation will likely only amount to a trace or a few hundredths.

Upper ridge continues to dominate the western CONUS through much of next week, resulting in temperatures staying above normal, with a few small chances for light precipitation as weak shortwaves ride the northwest flow into the northern plains.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued At 529 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Showers and isolated storms (with LCL MVFR conditions in some of the stronger cores) will continue to push across northwestern SD through early this morning. Precip will move out by 15-16Z with VFR conditions expected areawide through the rest of the TAF period.

Breezy northwest winds will develop morning with gusts 25 to 35 knots through the afternoon. Winds will begin to decrease late this afternoon, becoming variable by the evening.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.