textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Near or slightly above normal through the forecast period.

- Mostly dry conditions expected the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show shortwave just east of the forecast area and an upper low over the four corners region, with northwest flow over us. 19Z surface analysis shows frontal boundary associated with the wave over far eastern SD this afternoon. Mostly clear skies sit over the area, with temperatures in the 70s and light winds out of the west to northwest. Some patchy areas of fog and low ceilings is possible overnight into Wednesday morning, generally for eastern SD, however could impact south-central SD. Little change to the overall pattern is expected through the week, with northwest flow aloft hanging around. Mostly dry conditions are expected as well. A cold front is expected Thursday, dropping temperatures from the mid-70s down into the 60s, and bringing a small chance for some light precipitation into the area. A couple weak impulses move through the northern plains over the weekend and early next week, however models currently show little to no moisture associated with these waves.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1114 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions and generally light winds are forecast through the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.

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