textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temps expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Rain through midweek to bring beneficial moisture.

- Hot and dry weather returns next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Strong ridging persists across the western CONUS with upper flow over the CWA becoming increasingly northwesterly. Surface obs show the cold front across SCentral SD, with showers near the boundary. These showers will continue SE and exit the area this afternoon. Current temps are generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Smoke in the area has hindered temps from getting as warm as expected...and likewise, apparent temps. Will leave the Heat Advisory out but could see it being cancelled before 03z. Temps on Tuesday through Thursday will be a cool 80s each day. After a dry day on Tuesday, a wave pushing through is expected to bring showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday morning. Most models keep QPF on the light side, but the ECM/RRFS/NAM show some locations getting well over half an inch. This will be possible with PWATs of 150-175% of normal. The next series of waves will approach as the upper ridge weakens. These slow-moving waves are expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to the area late Wednesday into Thursday. The latest run of the GFS shows an impressive 175-200% of normal, which could bring localized QPF amounts of over an inch. Hot weather with +100F temps could return for the weekend as the ridge sets up again across the western CONUS.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1136 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. Breezy northwest winds are expected to pick up late this afternoon into tonight. Isolated showers/storms will be possible over the Black Hills and western SD plains this afternoon, but low confidence that they'll go over the TAF sites.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ026- 027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>077. WY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ055-058-059.