textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Low impact weather through Monday.

- Mild and dry weather through Monday with high temperatures upwards of 15-25F above normal.

- Some potential for a change in the weather middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 129 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

It is a very sunny Thursday afternoon here in western SD into NE WY. A quick glace at satellite imagery shows a few clouds trying to drift into the far southwest counties of SD and that is about it. Wind speeds aren't too bad for the area with some reports of gusts upwards of 15 to 20 mph with sustained winds around 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures around the area have reached the upper 40s to 50s, little cooler than that in the Black Hills.

And looking ahead to the next few days, there wont be much change. Active weather looks to pass our area well to the south. So well keep with the afternoon highs upwards of 15 to 25 degrees above normal, ranging from the 50s to 60s through early next week.

However, these unseasonably warm temperatures, low humidities, and dry weather will lead to some localized elevated fire wx concerns, though the light winds should limit overall risk.

Some changes in the weather are possible around the middle of next week. EURO and GFS ensembles are showing a change in the flow at 500mb, where well go from a zonal flow to a passing trough. This would bring some passing chances for rain and snow the upper plains. As of now, its looking like the bulk of the active weather is centered over North Dakota but its still worth watching how the weather models evolve over the coming days as the most extreme simulations give rain and snow to the area. Stay tuned.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued At 400 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.