textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow over the northern Black Hills today with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches for most spots

- Above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions through this weekend

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Monday) Issued at 310 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Current upper air analysis has upper level ridge axis over the West Coast with broad troughing over the eastern half of the US. Upper level wave is making its way across eastern MT/southern AB. Closer to home, nighttime microphysics imagery depicts area of low clouds/fog across much of western SD. Have added patchy fog mention to the forecast for northwestern SD after looking at webcams and airport obs in the area. While the low stratus will likely make it to the Black Hills through early this morning, not expecting any fog.

Main story today will be the potential for accumulating snow in the northern Black Hills. Aforementioned upper wave will cross the region today. Adequate moisture and modest forcing will support light precip over much of northeastern WY into western SD. Precip should move in early this morning with temperatures cold enough for snow to fall. As we warm up through the day, snow will transition to rain across the lower elevations of the plains but the Black Hills should remain cold enough for snow. The moist, northwest flow will support upslope snow over the northern Black Hills. In terms of how much snow, models have come down a bit on the QPF and thus the snow totals. In addition, this snow will be falling during the day with daytime temperatures at or slightly below the freezing mark. Therefore have knocked down snow totals slightly. Much of the northern Black Hills should see at least an inch of snow with the higher elevations seeing up to 3 to 5 inches. Given the limited coverage of the higher snow totals, opted to not issue a Winter Weather Advisory.

After today, the upper level ridge over the western US will continue to influence weather over our neck of the woods into this weekend. High temperatures across much of the CWA will be 10-20F above average with slightly cooler conditions towards central SD. Thursday's looking to be particularly warm with highs climbing into the 60s over the western SD plains.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 418 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Low stratus/patchy fog and associated MVFR/IFR conditions have developed across northwestern into south central SD. Not expecting these conditions to reach the KRAP terminal. An approaching system will push through NE WY and NW SD after 12z, bringing light snow to the area with MVFR/IFR conditions, particularly in the Black Hills and across NW SD. Lingering IFR conditions along the front across south-central SD near the end of the forecast period into early Wednesday morning.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.