textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures Thursday with highs in the 70s. Slightly warmer-than-normal temps return Friday and Saturday.

- Calmer northwest winds likely tomorrow. Winds swing to the east/southeast late Friday, still on the calmer side at around 5-15 mph.

- Improved fire weather conditions for the rest of the week - lighter winds but minimum RH values around 20 to 25% in NE WY and SW SD.

- Isolated showers and storms possible through Thursday night. Better chances for storms this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 122 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Its been a windy Wednesday today. Most of the wind gust reports around western SD have been upwards of 55 mph but a few isolated reports of near 60 mph came in from Philip, Wasta, and Cottonwood around 1PM.

Going forward, a low pressure system spinning near the west side of the Hudson Bay is still our main weather maker for the short term forecast. Its giving the CWA northwest flow with just enough upward vertical motion to get some showers and thunderstorms going in the upper great plains. So far, most of the activity has been contained to our north in North Dakota and in eastern SD while the western SD counties have been dry for the most part, save for a few cells that have been short-lived.

Looking ahead to tonight through tomorrow night, well continue the chances for isolated showers and non-severe storms trying to drift in from the north and northwest. Temperatures will be near- normal with overnight lows in the 40s to low 50s and afternoon highs in the 70s to near 80. Winds will still be out of the northwest but at a much calmer 5 to 15 mph with gusts nearing 20 to 25 mph.

Friday and the weekend will see the weather pattern change. The northwesterly flow will slide to a more westerly flow as a high pressure builds over the desert southwest. This will bring back warmer temps and more widespread thunderstorm chances for the weekend. The SPC has a risk for severe weather in Nebraska for now, but we wouldn't be surprised if parts of southern SD end up being included in future updates.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1129 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Gusty NW winds will affect western SD and northeast WY through 18/02Z before diminishing. Gusts to 45kts are possible before diminishing this evening. An isolated shower is possible across northwest SD this afternoon, with MVFR vsbys possible in the showers. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at the terminal locations through the valid forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 122 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will linger for parts of northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota through the early evening hours.

Humidities on Thursday and Friday will bottom out in the 20s with winds gusting to 15 to 25 mph. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue as a result but conditions will be an improvement from earlier in the week.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ001- 002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ321-322-325- 326-332-333. WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315-317.