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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
-Warm and windy this week with critical to near critical fire weather conditions the rest of the week
-Cooler early next week with some chances for showers
DISCUSSION
(This Afternoon Through Tuesday) Issued at 1121 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026
Western CONUS ridge will remain in place most of this week, supporting warm and dry weather. Ridge topping impulses will support weak cool fronts at times, with little to no precip with each system. Breezy southeast winds have developed across western SD in response to the advancing Pac NW upper trough. Associated frontside impulse will shift east into NE WY later this afternoon and evening. Sufficient LL moisture should be in place for isolated high based showers/TS. If convection does develop, gusty winds would be expected per inverted-V profiles. Any convection will shift NE overnight in very isolated fashion. Retained low pops for this. Sfc trough will shift through the FA tonight into Thur morning, supporting gusty NW winds. Breezy winds can expected Thur, esp over NW SD where adv level winds are expected with gusts over 50 mph at times. Issued a wind adv for this. Breezy NW winds will continue into Friday as another weak impulse advects through westerly flow on the south side of the deeper southern Canadian upper trough. Deeper upper trough will move into the Rockies this weekend, leading to much cooler temps by Sunday, as well as slightly better chances for showers into early next week. However, the bulk of moisture stays east of the FA, with more isolated to scattered activity expected in the FA. Expect highs in the 50s and 60s most places Monday and Tues, with some 40s in the west Monday, before things start to warm back up Wed. Some frost will also be possible in this period, esp across northeast WY.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1149 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A few higher based isolated showers/storms will be possible this evening into tonight moving west to east across the region, and based on the latest CAMs have added PROB30s to both KGCC and KRAP to highlight this potential. VFR conditions are still expected in any showers. Finally, a shift from south-southwest winds to northwest winds is expected from west to east between 08Z and 14Z Thursday morning.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued At 1121 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026
Warm, dry and, windy conds with receptive fuels will continue to support critical to near critical conds to most of western SD through the end of the week. A red flag warning remains in effect through Thur, with a long duration of critical fire weather conditions expected. Breezy SE winds today ahead of a trough of low pressure. Very dry conds, with RH's expected to fall to as low as 10 percent both today and Thur afternoon (Friday as well). The trough will move through this evening and support gusty NW winds, with poor overnight recovery. Gusty NW winds will continue Thur with continued very dry profiles. Dry and breezy through Sat. The red flag warning will most likely need extended across southwest SD Friday as critical fire weather conditions are forecast. Cooler with shower chances early next week, leading to a break in fire weather concerns although the best chance for wetting rains will be east of the area.
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