textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy through this afternoon.

- Cold front moves through this evening, bringing light precipitation and colder temperatures through Saturday.

- Sunday through next week expect above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 442 PM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

Extended the High Wind Warning in the far southwest through 7pm MST as gusts to 50kts continue over southern Campbell/Weston counties. Cold front has entered northeastern WY at 23z, so it should drop the gusty southwest winds as it moves through.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 214 PM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

Current upper air models show quasi-zonal flow over the forecast area with an upper disturbance over SK. At the surface a warm frontal boundary is mostly through the CWA, with a cold front in Montana, soon to enter the forecast area. Temperatures currently sit in the 50s to low 60s across the plains, 40s in the Black Hills. Winds are gusty out of the west.

Cold frontal boundary will move through the region late afternoon into the evening, bringing breezy northwest winds and some light precipitation. Given the warm temperatures this afternoon, expect any precipitation to start off as rain, but transition to snow as the colder air moves in. While much of the forecast area may see light precipitation, the better forcing will be in northeastern Wyoming into the upslope northern Black hills. Light snow accumulations of an inch or two may be possible over these regions through Saturday morning, while elsewhere can expect little to no accumulations.

Saturday will be colder following frontal passage, with highs 15-20 degrees cooler than today. These colder temperatures are short lived, as upper mild ridging builds over the western CONUS, promoting a warming trend to start the new week. Zonal-ish flow will promote above normal temperatures Sunday through much of Christmas week. A few weak disturbances may spark some light precipitation chances throughout the week, however expect mostly dry and warm conditions to prevail.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued At 427 PM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

A cold front will move through the area tonight with decreasing southwest winds ahead of it and gusty northerly winds behind it. A band of MVFR/IFR conditions (stratus/light snow possibly mixed with rain initially) will affect northeastern WY/Black Hills/far western SD. Conditions will become VFR most areas for Saturday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for SDZ041. WY...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for WYZ055-058.