textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder air moves in the rest of today into Friday, bringing very cold wind chills.

- Light snow possible over some areas tonight through Friday.

- Warming trend over the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 121 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models continue cyclonic flow over the forecast area today, with the upper low just north of the Great Lakes region. Surface analysis depicts a cold frontal boundary stretching from southeast MT through southeastern SD. Large variation in temperatures given the boundary stalled through the FA, with northwest SD temps around 0 and southwestern SD in the upper 20s. Winds are breezy out of the north to northwest.

Upper shortwave swings around the upper low this afternoon and evening, pushing the baroclinic zone further south and west, and ushering in even colder temperatures into the region. HREF probabilities of wind chills < -25F has a wide swath of 50-80% over much of the western SD plains starting late tonight. Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect starting at 6 PM MST this evening with no changes to the first issuance. Some light snow may start in the Black Hills upslope areas this evening, but a second wave moving through early Friday will bring more widespread snow. Accumulating snow is only expected in the lower 2/3 of the CWA and should be generally light, with most areas seeing between a trace and 2 inches. Far southwestern SD could see 1 to 3 inches with perhaps a few localized areas seeing slightly higher given large snow ratios with this event.

Low level return flow will bring in a bit warmer temperatures for Saturday, with highs rebounding to the teens. Another wave moves through late Saturday into Sunday, but scant moisture will likely limit light precipitation to the Black Hills. Upper ridging Sunday into Monday will bring more WAA into the region. Highs will climb back into the upper 30s and low 40s for Monday, however a return to northwestern upper flow will drop temps again by mid- week to near or just below normal, with potentially more chances for light precipitation.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday) Issued At 1034 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions expected today. Light snow is expected to develop tonight, mainly across NE WY, the Black Hills area, and southwest SD. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions to develop with the increase in snow showers. Northwest winds pick back up today, especially across northwest SD with gusts of up 35kt.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening to noon MST /1 PM CST/ Friday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027- 030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078. WY...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MST Friday for WYZ060.