textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are tracking southeast through the area this afternoon.

- These thunderstorms have produced wind gusts upwards of 35 to 45 mph and lightning.

- These storms will continue to slide southeast through the early evening before fading out late this evening.

- Clear skies and warmer temps return to finish the work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 942 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Very little change to the forecast this evening. Upper trough shifts eastward tomorrow, with some light showers possible again generally for eastern SD, however cannot rule out some showers on the far east side of our forecast area for Thursday afternoon. Another weak wave does move in from the north again on Friday, however model inconsistency on whether or not we will see any light showers on the plains, have left out mention of PoPs for now. Warming trend to start the weekend as upper ridge builds over the Rockies. Ridge flattens out over the weekend though, bringing northwest flow back over the region, increasing chances for light precipitation as we move into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening into early next week) Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The forecast is still overall on the quieter side. That being said, there are some concerns centered around the thunderstorms that are tracking through the area this afternoon.

These thunderstorms have produced confirmed wind gusts upwards of 35 to 45 mph, lightning, and one shower that passed over the office here in Rapid City produced ice pellets. These storms will continue through the afternoon and early evening before fading out late this evening. No severe weather is expected at this time but we'll continue to monitor the situation.

Then a ridge of high pressure will give clear and sunny skies Thursday night through Saturday. Low-end PoPs return to the area late Saturday night as the ridge breaks down and northwest flow returns. Those precip chances will last into Sunday, especially over the Black Hills but not so much in the plains.

Temperatures are still expected to rise as we head into the weekend. Overnight lows will be stuck in the upper 20s to low 30s through Thursday night with warmer overnight lows expected for the weekend. Thursday is looking at highs in the 50s to near 60. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be warmer with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Warmer weather trend continues into next week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued At 1054 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

High clouds are ongoing at both TAF sites, and VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will remain light through tonight till daytime mixing begins tomorrow afternoon. Winds will pick up then along with some rolling cumulus before fading back down Thursday evening.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.