textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued hot weather Monday and Tuesday.

- Cooler, near-normal, temps return mid week. Another round of hot weather next weekend.

- Isolated to scattered passing thunderstorm chances early in the week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions, mainly across northeast WY and far southwest SD.

UPDATE

Issued at 939 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Forecast remains mostly on track. Elevated showers/storms in far northwestern SD are now in North Dakota. Have went pretty minimal on overnight PoPs based off of guidance, but may need to be updated as surface boundary transitions into the CWA, bringing a chance for some light isolated precipitation potential. Minor tweaks made to PoPs and QPF for tomorrow based off the latest CAMs. Any storms should remain isolated for Monday, and no severe weather is expected.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 108 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Latest satellite imagery, radar, and webcams around the area show very little going on in the skies over western South Dakota and northeast Wyoming. A few clouds have come and gone over the northern Black Hills, hinting at the cap is holding, reducing thunderstorm chances.

For the rest of this afternoon through tonight, steady as we go with no real big changes - continued clear skies. The only exception is a low chance of isolated storm development in far southeast Montana that would track into far northwest South Dakota. Otherwise, an upper trough will track through the northern plains tonight, swinging a weak cold front over the area. This could get a few showers and thunderstorms going across northwest South Dakota late tonight.

To start the week, Monday and Tuesday bring back the storm chances. The previously mentioned front looks to stall out over southern South Dakota Monday. This is where another round of thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, stretching from the Black Hills and southeast. After that, another round of storms is possible, out of Wyoming, that could bring storms to South Dakota late Monday into Tuesday.

From a big picture view, a ridge of high pressure will build over the desert southwest. The CWA will be on the far northern edge of this high pressure so we cannot rule out little ridging riding waves that could give passing chances for storms mid week.

A quick look at late this week and the weekend, the ridge of high pressure will put some very warm air over the area. Temperatures will be well-above normal with highs in the 90s to 100s and overnight lows in the 60s to 70s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 1047 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Winds will shift out of the north-northwest at the beginning of the forecast period across NE WY. Occasional gusts 18 to 24 knots will be possible from 06-10z. Northwest winds will spread across western SD after 15-17z Monday morning.

Isolated storms are possible across the Black Hills during the afternoon. Isolated storm chances also across south-central SD and NE WY in the afternoon and evening hours. MVFR flight conditions possible near any thunderstorms along with gusty, erratic winds.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.