textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably mild for northeastern WY into southwestern SD through most of this week - cooler across central SD

- Increasing chances of light snow in the latter half of the week

- Accumulating snows for the Bear Lodge and the northern Black Hills for Thursday through Saturday

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 153 PM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

21Z upper level analysis has high amplitude ridge across the western CONUS, with broad cyclonic flow from the Northern Plains into New England. Fast northerly flow is in place across the forecast area, with just some high cloudiness passing through. At the surface, stationary frontal boundary remains draped across the area. Warmer to the west and cooler to the east. Winds are light east of the Black Hills, and breezy out of the northwest across eastern WY.

Fast northwest flow will continue across the area, with western ridge inching closer to the forecast area on Wednesday. Wednesday will be the nicest day of the week, with mild temperatures for most locations. Temps will remain cool over northwestern SD into far south central SD.

Next upper shortwave will slide into the area Wednesday night into Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly. This shortwave will produce an extended period of moist upslope flow over the Bear Lodge and northern and central Black Hills. Upslope enhanced snows will persist early Thursday into Friday, with a secondary shot on Saturday. Total snowfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches will be possible across these areas, with 1 to 2 inches possible across northwestern SD. An inch or less is expected across the remainder of the area. A wide range of temperatures are also expected Thursday and Friday, with teens and 20s across the SD plains, to the 30s across northeast WY.

Western upper ridge shifts east again, with mild temperatures expected for the weekend. Another quick shortwave drops through the area on Saturday, with a quick shot of upslope snow possible over the Bear Lodge and northern Black Hills. A mix of rain and snow will be possible over the South Dakota plains. Sunday looks to be dry and mild.

Mainly dry and mild conditions will persist into early next week as the area remains under the eastern periphery of the western ridge.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1025 PM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Towards the end of the period, MVFR/IFR cigs start to creep into northwestern SD as a light winter system moves into the region Thursday morning.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.