textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Mild and dry through early next week with high temperatures 15-25F above normal

-Critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday for parts of the area

-Semi-active flow returns the middle of next week with chances for precip at times and cooler conds

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Friday) Issued at 917 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Semi-amplified zonal split flow will continue to bring mild and dry weather to the region. The pattern does breakdown next week as a deep trough pushes east into the western CONUS, supporting cooler and semi-active flow by mid week as a mean trough propagates slowly east into the CONUS. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies the next two days with highs generally in the 50s and 60s, some 15 to 25 degrees above seasonal norms. The warmest day will be Sunday, when temps will approach 70 across southern SD. Clouds will increase by Sunday as the deep upper trough pushes east with ample high level moisture advecting into the region, supporting passing thick high clouds. This may limit temp potentials some Sunday, but still quite mild given expecting mechanical mixing. Mild weather will persist into Tues, with cooler weather arriving by mid week as a sfc cold front slides through the region, along with increasing chances for precip. Precip chances will hinge on how the western CONUS trough ejects onto the Plains. Right now, the consensus is for a splitting trough, which would shunt the best chances for precip north and south of the region. However, much cooler weather is on track for the second half of the week regardless of how the trough evolves.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued At 434 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 917 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday with elevated fire weather conditions Monday for parts of the area. Deep mixing Sunday will drop minimum relative humidities into the teens over parts of northeastern Wyoming into south central South Dakota. Breezy west winds will develop in the afternoon, with frequent gusts over 25 mph likely there as well. Hence, a fire weather watch has been issued for Sunday. Minimum relative humidities Monday will be in the 20s over parts of northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Gusty west to southwest winds Sunday will become southwest to southeast Monday with gusts above 25 mph possible. Temperatures will be 15-25 degrees above normal Sunday and Monday. A disturbance will bring increasing chances for precipitation, which would quell the elevated fire weather conditions.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for WYZ315-317.