textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Active pattern persists through mid-week with daily chances of storms, some of which may be strong to severe.
- Trending warmer to end the week into next weekend.
DISCUSSION
(This Afternoon Through Saturday) Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Upper level analysis shows zonal flow across the Northern Plains this morning with subtle embedded shortwaves upstream. Upper ridge is building over the SW US with weak height rises over the area and generally limited upper level ascent. Diffuse surface high pressure is centered over central SD/ND with southeasterly surface flow across the area.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the area despite the weak upper level forcing. Forecast MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg will be in place, although effective bulk shear will be marginal (25-35 knots). Best potential for thunderstorm coverage is expected across the Black Hills given orographic lift where transient supercellular structures/severe weather is possible with the strongest convection through the evening hours.
Active northwest flow is forecast Monday with additional showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for severe weather will be along the theta-e axis focused across southern SD into south-central SD.
Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms persists through Wednesday. A robust upper level ridge will overspread the region by the end of the week into the weekend with much warmer temperatures expected. Current guidance has us on the northeastern periphery of the ridge axis with fairly active northwest flow across the region, resulting in continued chances of storms.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1111 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today with some being strong to severe. Thunderstorm development may begin around 16/19z and last through 17/12z, with the Black Hills being affected early on, including KRAP, then northwestern and south- central South Dakota in the evening and overnight. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions are expected around any heavier precipitation cores. Conditions will improve starting around 17/12z, with mainly VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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