textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy with near-critical fire weather conditions through Saturday.

- Pattern change Saturday night through Monday should result in showery, cooler weather with perhaps active/severe thunderstorms over south-central South Dakota

UPDATE

Issued at 946 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Not much change to going forecast. Could see a few wind gusts to 45mph Friday afternoon over the northwestern SD plains, but not enough confidence to hoist wind headlines. Strongest winds do not line up with lower relative humidity, so will continue to forgo Fire Weather headlines.

Upper trough approaches the area for the weekend and then passes through Monday bringing showery and cooler weather. Low level jet/theta-e advection Saturday night will bring convection to the southeast half of the CWA. Potential for severe thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon/early evening (SPC Day 4) as main cold front slices through the CWA with plenty of shear. Timing of the cold front will modulate south-central SD severe weather potential. Stay tuned.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 117 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

A pattern change is on the way to the area but not until later this weekend. So for now, we'll hold on to the critical to near- critical fire weather through Saturday. Sunday into early next week, the rain chances return to the area with cooler temps sliding in from the north.

To finish this week, zonal flow in the upper levels will give very little change to our weather. So highs in the 70s and 80s are expected Friday and Saturday, overnight lows tonight through Saturday night will be in the 30s to 40s. Skies will be clear to mostly clear with clouds increasing from the west on Saturday. And with not much moisture in the area, afternoon relative humidities will be low, at around 10 to 20%. Sustained winds will top out around 10 to 20 mph and gusts will reach near 20 to 30 mph. Decided to hold off on extending the Red Flag Warning because the strongest wind speeds look to happen where relative humidity will be near 20%. And where the RH values bottom out near 10 to 15%, winds are forecast to be on the lighter side. These forecast conditions will be monitored closely and if needed, warning products will be issued.

Sunday and early next week, a passing upper level trough and surface cold front will bring some very different weather to NE WY and W SD. For starters, Saturday night into Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are likely. Some of those thunderstorms have the possibility to be strong to severe, the SPC has highlighted central SD as a potential area of where severe weather is possible on Sunday. As the cooler air slides south, most of the area has a decent chance of seeing rain but higher elevations of the Black Hills have a good chance of seeing accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday. Stay tuned for updates.

For the rest of next week, PoPS diminish and temps warm back to the 60s and 70s for highs.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 935 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 117 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Warm, dry, and windy conditions with receptive fuels will continue to support critical to near-critical conditions to most of western SD through the end of the week. A red flag warning remains in effect through today.

The gusty northwest winds from today will weaken this evening but RH values will see poor overnight recovery. Dry and breezy weather will stick around through Saturday as well. That being said, as of now, it's looking like the winds will be below thresholds, so decided to hold off on extending the red flag warning for now.

Cooler with shower chances early next week, leading to a break in fire weather concerns although the best chance for wetting rains will be east of the area.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.