textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow will taper off this afternoon in the Black Hills area.

- Very cold tonight over northwestern into south central SD where wind chills could drop to 10 to 20 below.

- Another round of wintry precip moves through the area Saturday with snow changing over to a freezing rain.

- Above average temperatures and mostly dry weather returns Sunday into early next week.

SUNDAY and BEYOND.

Upper level ridging envelops the western CONUS with EC/GFS members suggesting the development of a pattern that is evocative of a Rex Block. Neither forecast system keeps the block in place, but were that to happen, this area could be in for a longer stretch of warm and dry weather. As it stands, the ridge is *just* northeast enough to let western South Dakota get a taste of the spring-like temperatures such a feature can bring. But being so close to its margins leaves confidence lower. For example, a shortwave riding through on Tuesday will bring a chance (20-40%) of mixed precip and a brief hiccup in our warming trend. A stronger wave could push this area out from under the comforting temps of the upper level ridging.

Regardless, the forecast remains warm after tonight with a few 60s forecast by late next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1031 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Low clouds, and light snow will persist across western SD into the Black Hills through mid afternoon with MVFR to IFR conditions. Expect conditions to trend upward most places by late afternoon as snow shifts into Nebraska. Mainly VFR conditions are expected by early evening.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM MST Saturday for SDZ001-002-012>014-032-072-073-078. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ024. WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ057.