textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions through the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Water vapor imagery shows upper ridge building across the northern High Plains. Surface obs show temps have risen into the lower 90s across the plains and 70s/80s over the Black Hills. KUDX radar shows isolated storms have developed across the southern Black Hills. Weak to moderate instability is in place, but with relatively weak winds through 400 mb, not expecting these slow-moving storms to be severe. Could also see isolated storms develop across southeastern MT and our bordering zones as a weak waves transitions across the area. Storms will dissipate in the early evening hours. Upper ridging will continue to build across the region through the weekend, bringing very hot temperatures to the area. Saturday's highs are expected to be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Could see isolated storms develop again across the Black Hills in the afternoon. From Sunday to Tuesday...dry weather is expected with temperatures above 100F across the plains...and well into the 90s across the Hills. This heat wave will likely set some daily record max temps across the CWA. Looking deeper into the records at UNR, the most consecutive days of 100 degrees or higher is four, which has occurred five times. Four of those events were during the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s. The last one was in late July 2007. There is a potential to tie that record. Based on heat indices, have issued a Heat Advisory across all the northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota plains beginning 18z Saturday all the way until Tuesday evening. If Wednesday ends up being hot as well, we may need to extend the advisory...but since that's six days from now, there is plenty of time to assess that.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1118 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Gusty winds are expected tomorrow, particularly over the South Dakota plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 225 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A strong upper level ridge will move into the region for the rest of this week into the first half of next week. This will bring very hot temperatures to northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, along with dry air and breezy winds supporting near- critical fire weather conditions through the next several days. On Sunday, winds may gust 30 mph, which combined with the very dry air, may result in critical fire weather conditions across the northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota plains. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday. Will continue to monitor early next week for the potential for additional days with critical fire weather conditions.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Tuesday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032- 041>044-046-047-049-072>078. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for SDZ322>327-329-332. WY...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ054>056-058>060. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for WYZ314>317.