textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Mild and dry into next week

-Fog possible tonight in south central SD

UPDATE

Issued at 855 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

No major changes to the forecast over the next few days. Nighttime microphysics and regional ASOS obs show fog has begun to develop across north central SD. This fog may continue to develop southward, reaching south central SD by midnight, however HRRR and RRFS soundings over KICR both indicate a very shallow moist layer at the sfc. This indicates fog may be patchy in nature and confined to river valleys rather than wide spread. Still, will leave mentions of at least patchy fog in the forecast over south central SD for the overnight hours. This fog will erode by Saturday morning, leading to a warm, dry, and mostly sunny day on tap.

Weak cool front will move through the forecast area Saturday afternoon. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front, becoming slightly breezy over northwestern SD over the afternoon hours. Aside from that, not expecting any precip or significant temperature changes with the frontal passage. In fact, Sunday should be slightly warmer (upper 60s to low 70s) as an upper ridge builds over the western US and southerly return flow brings warmer temps back into the region.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Thursday) Issued at 1153 AM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

Mean western NOAM ridging will support mild and dry weather as Pac flow continues aloft. Weak/skirting impulses will support cool fronts at times to knock temps down a few degrees. Temps will be above normal in the period with the warmest days being this weekend, particularity Sunday when highs will average 20 degrees above normal. Areas of fog can be expected toward south central SD tonight. Any fog will quickly burn off Saturday morning with temps recovering nicely by afternoon. Breezy NW winds will develop Sat ahead of the next impulse moving across southern Canada, with a few gusts approaching 35 to 40 mph near the ND border. Otherwise, mild Saturday with highs in the 60s. Another stronger trough will take a similar path across southern Canada on Sunday, with warm conditions expected across the FA ahead of the system as highs reach in the 60s and 70s. Breezy south winds can also be expected, supporting elevated fire weather conds across parts of the area. Cool front will move through Sunday night. This will knock temps back down into the 50s and 60s for Monday. Zonal/mild Pac flow expected through next week, with mild and dry weather continuing, as periodic cool fronts move through.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 953 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

At this time, the concern for fog is diminishing. Fog and/or low clouds were starting to develop in central SD earlier in the evening but as of this writing, those areas are clearing. Will continue to monitor and will update if needed.

As far as wind goes, only minor diurnal changes in directions and speeds.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.