textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warmer and breezy conditions will bring elevated fire weather for Friday.
- Colder temperatures and precipitation chances return Friday night into Saturday.
- Above average temperatures return Sunday through next week, with mostly dry conditions.
DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 201 PM MST Thu Dec 18 2025
Current upper air models show the upper low over southern Minnesota now this afternoon, with northwest flow over the forecast area and mild ridge over the western CONUS. Surface analysis shows high pressure now moving over North Dakota, as the surface low is well east of the region. Winds are currently out of the northwest with gusts 25 to 35 mph and temperatures in the 20s to mid 30s.
Winds continue to decrease this afternoon, as the stronger pressure gradients now sit in eastern SD into Minnesota. Surface high pressure will influence this evening and tonight, continuing our colder temperatures with lows tonight in the teens to mid 20s. Weak ridging will bring WAA into the region Friday, as low level westerly winds usher in warmer temperatures. Expect highs Friday in the 50s to low 60s for most of the area (40s in the Black Hills). Decent mixing will make for breezy winds again Friday, with gusts 30 to 45 mph possible in the plains. Low end Wind Advisory may be necessary in far southwestern SD and parts of northeastern WY for Friday afternoon.
Another clipper system impacts the forecast area late Friday into Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures back in again, as well as chances for some light rain/snow Friday evening through Saturday morning. Light snow accumulations may be possible over the norther Black Hills and parts of northeastern Wyoming. Following this disturbance, mild ridging builds again in the western CONUS, influencing the forecast area through much of christmas week. Expect highs to remain 10-20 degrees above normal for Sunday through Christmas, along with mostly dry conditions.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued At 418 PM MST Thu Dec 18 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will develop after 19/05z over northeastern WY, spreading into southwestern SD Friday reaching 30-45kts at times Friday.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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