textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation and strong northwest winds continue into this evening.

- After a quiet Wednesday, high wind event possible Thursday and Friday, with wind gusts 60-80 mph possible.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 211 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

Current upper air models show upper ridge over the west coast, with northwest flow over the region and a shortwave moving through the Dakotas. Recent surface analysis shows associated frontal boundary traversing the CWA. Radar currently shows scattered areas of precipitation throughout the forecast area. Temperatures sit in the 40s to low 60s across the plains, 30s over the Black Hills, with gusty west to northwest winds.

Disturbance will continue to trek across the region this afternoon into the evening, with ongoing areas of precipitation and strong northwest winds. No changes to the current wind headlines, with wind advisory dropping off at 00Z. Still looks like the higher elevation Black Hills will see some light snow accumulations of 1-3 inches through today.

After a quiet Wednesday, attention turns to Thursday/Friday. Another wave rides the ridge down from Canada through the Dakotas. Scant moisture with this disturbance likely will limit any precipitation to maybe some very light flurries over the upslope northern Black Hills. Main concern will be winds these days as two boundaries move through. Models show the first boundary moving through Thursday morning. Pressure rises are fairly modest with both fronts, with the NAM and GFS pointing to 2-4mb/3hr rises. However coupled with strong CAA, expect strong northwest winds for both days. EFI shows the strongest signal on Friday (95 percent) after the secondary boundary moves through. NBM probabilities of 55 mph or greater sit in the 60-90% range both days, while probability of 65 mph or greater for Friday sits in the 60-80% range for parts of the western SD plains. Wind headlines will likely be needed for both days. Expect much cooler temperatures over the latter half of Thursday into Friday, with Friday's highs only reaching into the 20s and low 30s.

Temperatures rebound slightly over the weekend as the upper ridge tries to build eastward, however with the transition line between air masses near the forecast area, some uncertainty remains with weekend temperatures. Currently dry conditions are expected.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued At 419 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

A frontal boundary will move into the region tonight. MVFR cigs are possible over the eastern FA INVOF the front. Otherwise, VFR conds expected in the period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.