textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain will continue to increase in coverage through this evening into the overnight hours. Snow may mix in with rain during the morning into the afternoon hours Monday.

- A trace to an inch of snow possible over northwestern SD and the Black Hills on Monday.

- Warming trend commences Tuesday through the end of the week with highs in the 50s to 60s

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Saturday) Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Rain showers have begun to push into the region this morning as upper low over the southwestern US moves northeastward. Large scale Q-vector convergence and moisture advection will continue to support this precip through the overnight hours into Monday. In terms of what kind of precip is going to fall, the majority will be rain. However, as the colder air associated with the upper low pushes into the region, we could see a rain/snow mix on portions of the western SD plains and a transition to snow over the Black Hills by late Monday morning. Snow will likely be falling during the afternoon hours when sfc temps will be in the mid 30s and even though the thermal profiles will support snow, they'll still be a tad warm. All of this means that we likely won't see much aside from some minor, slushy accumulations (generally around a trace to maybe an inch) that should melt quickly on the warm ground.

Upper level shortwave and attendant moisture starved front will move in from the PNW later on Tuesday. Could see some light rain showers across far northeastern WY into northwestern SD with this system with the only other impacts expected being breezy southwest winds across the western SD plains and portions of northeastern WY late Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, upper level west- southwesterly flow will keep temperatures seasonably mild after Tuesday with dry weather expected through the late week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1132 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026 Cigs will continue to trend to MVFR today around the area. At KRAP and western SD, the downward trend will go to IFR by tonight. Coverage of light rain showers will continue to increase today over South Dakota, especially east of the Black Hills.

IFR to LIFR is likely late tonight into Monday morning for parts of western SD due to low clouds, lower vsbys, and rain mixed with snow in some spots.

The lowered conditions will continue into Monday afternoon with improvement from west to east late Monday into Tuesday morning.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.