textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler this week with precipitation chances through mid-week.

- Near-freezing to freezing overnight temperatures possible beginning Monday night.

- Breezy tonight into Monday; watching high wind potential for Thursday/Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 950 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

No major changes to the forecast this evening. Rain showers and patchy fog will continue to move across the area through the overnight hours with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s across much of the area. Another cool day tomorrow with highs ranging from the 50s across northwestern SD to the upper 60s to low 70s across southern SD. Northwesterly winds will pick up through tomorrow afternoon, especially across our usually breezy areas from Sturgis into the plains east of Rapid City where gusts of up to 40 mph are possible. Another round of precip expected Monday night into early Tuesday. While temps Monday night will drop into the 30s, precip will fall as rain for the most part though can't rule out a few flakes of snow mixing in at the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show closed upper low over northeastern OR/southeastern WA with trough axis extending southward. Broad upper level ascent continues to overspread the Northern Plains as moisture streams into the region. The surface cold front settled south of the forecast area and stretches from upper MN through southeastern SD into NE. Considerable cloud cover persists over the forecast area; have dropped high temperatures to account with most areas (especially along and north of I90) struggling to push out of the 50s today. Increasing chances of rain later this afternoon through the overnight hours as better upper level ascent overspreads the area, although heaviest precipitation amounts will remain north of the forecast area.

Winds will turn northwesterly Monday with gusts around 40 mph across the western SD plains as secondary front pushes south of the area. Upper level low will slowly eject from the Four Corners region late Tuesday into Wednesday with additional precipitation chances, although better chances of appreciable precipitation amounts will remain south of the CWA. Cooler air will linger through the week with a threat of near-freezing to freezing temperatures possible each night Monday night through the week.

The NBM continues to show wind gusts exceeding 60 mph across northwestern SD and portions of the western SD plains Thursday afternoon and evening. However, ensemble guidance is not supportive, with low probabilities of high winds (EPS generally ~40-50% probability of exceeding 40 mph) and many members (EPS/GEFS) peaking well below 45 mph. Current thinking is that the most favorable ingredients and strongest winds will remain displaced to our east, although confidence is low given the large ensemble spreads.

Upper ridge is forecast to build over the western US by the end of the week into next weekend with temperatures trending above average

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 511 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Widespread IFR conds in low clouds and fog will gradually trend upward at most areas later this morning as a cold front moves through. Expect breezy NW winds for a period behind the front, mainly across northeast WY and SW SD. MVFR conds will linger across NW SD through the day. Widespread MVFR (local IFR) conds expected to return tonight as winds veer back to the NE and the moist BL cools.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.