textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures (25-35 degrees above average) on Thursday with potentially record breaking highs

- Above average temperatures and dry weather to continue through this weekend

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Tuesday) Issued at 353 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Current nighttime microphysics imagery shows clear skies over northeastern WY and far western SD. A bank of low clouds delineates the edge of a weak backdoor front draped across northwestern into south central SD. This front and associated low cloud cover has slowly crept southward over the past few hours. So far, current airport observations and webcams are indicating that if there is any fog, it isn't very widespread.

The main story for the next several days will be the unseasonably warm conditions across our neck of the woods. It certainly won't feel like early February with highs reaching into the 50s to low 60s (the average high for this time of year is in the mid 30s). Upper level ridge over the western US will continue to nudge into the region today and tomorrow. Highs today will reach into the upper 40s to mid 50s across much of the western SD plains and northeastern WY.

Thursday will be even warmer as strong thermal ridge extends across MT into the northern and central plains. Highs over much of the western SD and northeastern WY plains will easily reach 25 to 30+ degrees above average. By Thursday afternoon, many areas across western SD and northeastern WY will see temperatures in the 60s with the eastern foothills and adjacent plains potentially reaching 70 degrees by Thursday afternoon thanks to westerly, downslope flow. Could see daily temperature records broken in Downtown Rapid City (67 in 1963) and at the Rapid City Airport (63 in 2024).

Cool front moves through the region late Thursday, bringing temperatures down slightly for Friday (highs on Friday will be in the 50s instead of the 60s). The unseasonably warm conditions will continue through this weekend before the ridge begins to break down and upper level flow becomes more zonal and unsettled. This will translate to moderating temps and increasing chances for precip.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1000 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGS will move in from ND and slide southwest toward the Black Hills. This area may include patchy fog with local MVFR/IFR reductions in VSBY. VFR improvement is expected west to east Wed morning into the early afternoon.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.