textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- High winds expected across much of the area Thursday afternoon into Friday with widespread gusts of 60 to 70 mph and gusts of 70+ across northwestern SD.

- Light snow expected over the northern Black Hills Friday morning, though accumulations expected to be minor the high winds could cause areas of blowing snow and hazardous travel conditions.

- Gusty northwest winds possible across the western SD plains on Sunday

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Current upper air analysis depicts upper level ridging over the western US with the Northern Plains sitting under north- northwest flow. Temperatures across the region range from the upper 20s to upper 30s. Backdoor front is pushing into the region along with a bank of low stratus. Baroclinic zone/front will sit over central SD today. Highs across much of our CWA will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s with highs in the mid 30s across south central SD. Some light snow is possible along the frontal boundary in south central SD this morning - any accumulations expected to be minor.

Main concern over the next three days is the high wind event Thursday and Friday. Winds will ramp up across northwestern SD Thursday morning as a cold front crosses the region with gusts of 55 to 60 mph likely by the afternoon and evening hours. The high winds will spread over much of the region by late Thursday evening into Friday with the strongest winds occurring Friday morning. While pressure rises aren't looking very impressive (around 1 to 3 mb/3 hr) NAM and GFS soundings have consistently been showing 50-60kt gusts mixing to the sfc over much of the CWA. Both the 13/12z and 14/00z ECWMF EFI is showing wind gusts in the 90-95th percentile over much of the CWA with SOT of 1, pointing at the potential for a higher end wind event. While the signals aren't quite as strong this time as it was for our historic wind event last month, still have high confidence in strong winds developing across the area Thursday afternoon into Friday with widespread gusts of 60+ mph and gusts of up to 75 mph possible across northwestern SD (a few of our windier spots could see gusts of up to 80 mph). Less confidence in high wind warning gusts across northeastern WY, though NAM and GFS soundings indicate the potential for 55-60kt gusts to mix down. Therefore, have hoisted a High Wind Watch for the whole CWA.

The bulk of the moisture will be displaced to the east of the CWA, which should keep most of the area dry. Some light snow showers could develop across northwestern into south central SD Friday morning with a potential for snow squalls to develop along the front. Additionally, some upslope snow may fall over the northern Black Hills. Accumulations looking minor (around an inch) but could be enough to cause areas of blowing snow and associated reductions in visibility Friday morning.

Winds will diminish Friday evening and overnight Friday, though winds across the foothills and adjacent plains could remain gusty through Saturday morning with gusts of 40-55 mph possible. There's the potential for strong winds to develop across the western SD plains again Sunday as another dry cold front pushes across the area.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1028 AM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

MVFR/IFR ceilings remain from KBWW southeastward through KSUO; these conditions should gradually improve after 18-20z. West of this boundary, VFR conditions will prevail. Increasing winds overnight with low-level winds shear possible after 15/02-04z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 301 AM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

A pair of dry cold fronts will move through the region Thursday and Friday. Winds are expected to ramp up Thursday afternoon, mainly across northwestern South Dakota where gusts of up to 60+ mph are expected. Wind will still be plenty breezy across southwestern and south central SD with gusts of 40 to 55 mph. While RHs won't be critically low (25-35% across southwest SD and the eastern slopes of the Black Hills, 35-50% elsewhere), the strong winds, cured fuels, and lack of wetting precip will support widespread elevated to near critical fire wx conditions across the western SD plains.

The strong winds will continue into Friday with gusts of 70+ mph possible over much of the western SD plains. Temps will have cooled off behind the front with highs in the 30s. RHs will range from 25 to 45% with the driest conditions across southwestern SD and the eastern Black Hills. The high winds and dry conditions will support elevated to near critical fire wx conditions and extreme Grassland Fire Danger across the western SD plains.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-043-072-073-078. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for SDZ024-028. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for SDZ027-029-030-041-042-044-046-047-049-074>077. WY...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for WYZ060. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for WYZ057. High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for WYZ054>056-058-059.