textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms possible tonight over western SD.

- Strong winds on Monday, with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions.

- Cooler Monday, but gradual warmup through the week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 1208 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show the upper low currently over north central MT, with southwest flow over the forecast area. 17Z Surface analysis shows a boundary running from northwestern SD down into southeastern WY. Winds are currently light out of the south to southwest. Radar has some light returns in northwestern SD moving northeast into ND.

Main concern in the near-term will be potential for severe thunderstorms tonight into Monday morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected this afternoon, but southeasterly LLJ ramps up this evening into the overnight hours, bringing moisture into the region. Surface low is expected to develop over northeastern CO and move northeastward into the area by tonight. As low enters the region and LLJ increases, strong to severe storms are expected to develop. While we could see some showers/storms develop in the early evening, HREF and HRRR show the stronger storms starting up between 03-06Z. CAMS currently show strong to severe storms developing in southwestern SD and the Black hills in this timeframe, then moving northeast. Thermal profiles will support elevated storms with hail being the main threat from these, however strong to severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

Monday will be dry but windy, as strong mixing will support wind gusts 45 to 55 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of western SD, including the foothills late morning into the early evening. Another shortwave is progged to move through the central/northern plains late Tuesday into Wednesday, supporting the potential for some showers/storms. Southwest flow continues though the week, with weak disturbances prompting near daily chances for at least isolated precipitation the latter half of the week. Upper high in southeastern CONUS also builds over the week, supporting a gradual warmup. Temperatures climbing into the 90s will be possible Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1116 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions expected through 29/03z. Breezy southwest winds will gust to 35kts over the northeastern WY plains. Scattered tsra will develop this evening over western SD, especially after 29/03z. Any storm may bring IFR conditions, strong wind gusts, and hail. Along/east of K2WX-KVTN after 29/06z, areas of IFR/MVFR CIGS will develop.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for SDZ012-013- 025>027-030-031-041-042-072>076. WY...None.