textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog will develop across western SD tonight.

- Breezy northwest winds across northwestern and southwestern SD Monday

- Above average temperatures and mostly dry weather through next week

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

A dry and cool night has settled over the region with observed temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s. Skies are mostly clear, save for a thin veil of high cloud cover over western SD. Winds are light and generally out of the west to northwest. Some breezier conditions have developed across far northwestern SD where some stations are reporting gusts of 20 to 25 mph. At the upper levels, ridge is building across the western US while a longwave trough digs into the eastern US. The Northern Plains sits under northwest flow with an upper level shortwave moving over MN/ND.

Our neck of the woods will remain under the influence of the western US ridge through this week. Temperatures today will climb into the upper 40s to mid 50s across much of the CWA with cooler conditions towards central SD. Arctic high will push into the upper Midwest later today with a backdoor cold front crossing the CWA in the late afternoon/evening hours. Winds will shift from the northwest to east- southeast as the front passes through. Light, upslope winds and adequate low level moisture will be conducive to fog formation across the western SD plains tonight into Monday morning.

Weak shortwave progged to crest the ridge and dive into the Northern Plains late Monday. Attendant sfc front will bring breezy northwest winds back to the region Monday afternoon. Weak 3 hr pressure rises of 1 to 3 mb could support gusts of 40+ mph over northwestern and far southwestern SD (40-60% probs per NBM) through the afternoon hours. In terms of precip chances, models have been fairly consistent in keeping the bulk of the moisture east of the CWA, which should keep us mostly dry. Chances for light precip increase Tuesday as another quick moving shortwave zips across the Dakotas. Moisture and lift with this shortwave are more favorable for precip over western SD with rain falling over the plains and snow over the Black Hills. QPF with this system looks light with perhaps some minor snow accumulations over the Northern Black Hills.

Cluster analysis indicates upper level ridging continuing to sit over the western US and troughing over the eastern US through the end of the week with the Northern Plains remaining under northwest flow. Sfc baroclinic zone will remain draped across northwestern into south central SD through the end of the work week which will pose a challenge for forecast highs in the far eastern reaches of our CWA. However, generally expecting temperatures 10-15F above average and dry weather across northeastern WY into western SD through this week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued At 414 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through 03Z/02. Patchy fog will develop over parts of northwest, central, and south-central South Dakota starting at 03Z and last through the remainder of the TAF period. MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions are expected where fog exists. RAP may be impacted.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.