textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions Thursday, then near-critical Friday - Mild temperatures through Friday, then colder for the weekend with a chance of precipitation

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Wednesday) Issued at 941 PM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

04z surface analysis had warm front over the eastern Dakotas and diffuse lee trough from central MT into central CO. Water vapour loop had split flow over north America with CWA under northwest flow aloft. Main concern this forecast revolves around fire weather conditions.

Thursday/Friday, shortwave currently off the BC coast will slip southeastward into the Great Lakes by Friday night. It will spin up a low that will move across central Canada, dragging a cold front into the CWA Friday afternoon. Ahead of the front, boundary layer mixing and the lower tropospheric forecast wind profile will promote windy spots Thursday, particularly over northwestern SD/far southwestern SD. Breezy spots for Friday. Forecast soundings suggest gusts around 45mph for northwestern SD, especially Thursday. Latest HREF probabilities indicate a low chance of gusts >45mph, so will forego wind headlines. Temperatures will be near guidance Thursday, but highs could be problematic Friday given eventual timing of the cold front and bouquet of mid/high clouds streaming into the CWA on 110kt jet streak.

Friday night/Saturday, aforementioned jet streak impinges on post frontal baroclinic zone eventually resulting in a band of snow that will affect northwestern SD. The best chance of accumulating snow (30-50% chance >0.1" QPF) will be near the SD/ND border. Sunday, a wave sneaks out of the southern stream into the central plains leading to a band of QPF along the baroclinic zone which will most likely be too far west/south of the CWA to do much locally. Temperatures will be near guidance for the weekend, but with ~15F spreads, so confidence is only moderate.

Next week, latest ensemble guidance suggests a warmup with split flow potentially/eventually getting together for a shot at some much-needed QPF beyond the forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday) Issued At 1040 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Breezy northwest winds are expected over the western SD plains through the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected through the period at both TAF sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 941 PM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Unseasonably mild temperatures, dry air, and breezy to gusty winds are expected Thursday/Friday. The joint probability of MinRH <=15%/frequent wind gusts >=25mph Thursday afternoon over the far southwest reaches of the CWA is very low. These probabilities rise to 30-50% Friday afternoon in the extreme southwest reaches of the CWA, but the duration should be short. The result will be elevated fire weather conditions Thursday and near-critical conditions Friday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.