textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler with lingering light precipitation through Saturday afternoon.

- Warming trend over the weekend with mostly dry conditions Saturday through early next week.

- Unsettled pattern returns latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 100 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Current upper air models and Water Vapor show upper low over the southern MN/SK border, with trough digging into Colorado. Surface analysis depicts a low over northern Wyoming. Radar shows spotty elevated showers over the Black Hills and northeastern Wyoming that may or may not be reaching the surface. Further east in south central SD, a line of light precipitation is moving through this afternoon. Temperatures currently sit in the 20s in the Black Hills, 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Gusty northwest winds out of the northwest continue through early this evening, with gusts to 50 mph.

Some isolated areas of lingering light precipitation may continue tonight into Saturday as the upper trough shifts eastward, little to no accumulations expected. Some CAMS do show potential for perhaps some showers popping up in northwestern SD Saturday afternoon, however not enough confidence so have left out PoPs for now. Saturday into Sunday the upper ridge builds over the western CONUS, prompting a warming trend over the weekend, with highs reaching back into the 70s by Monday. Warming trend coupled with drier weather moving into next week, will bring back fire weather concerns. Sunday is expected to be very dry, however light winds should negate the need for any fire wx headlines. Mon-Wed has a better chance of overlapping low afternoon RH with gusty winds bringing in critical fire weather potential.

By Wednesday, the upper ridge has transitioned over the northern and central plains, as upper trough digs over the west coast. Uncertainty remains in how the latter half of next week will play out, as some long range models show split flow trying to develop as the trough transitions over the Rockies, while others have upper low swinging through the CONUS. Regardless, model trends point to a decent chance we will see a return to unsettled weather and cooling temperatures later next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued At 511 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Leftover MVFR/IFR conditions due to clouds/patchy light snow will dissipate early this evening. Breezy conditions will diminish around sunset this evening, then return Saturday morning with gusts around 40kts.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.