textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry and very warm through Tuesday.
- Increasing chances for precipitation late in the week.
DISCUSSION
(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
08Z upper analysis has a deep trof across the Great Lakes and a ridge over the Northern Rockies. In between, fast northwest upper flow is present across the Northern Plains. Skies are currently mostly clear. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central CONUS, with a weak lee trof developing across central Montana. Temperatures at 2 AM are in the 40s and 50s across the forecast area, with light south to southeast winds.
Upper ridge over the Rockies will shift into the Northern Plains today into Monday, as surface lee trof strengthens across Montana and Wyoming. Temperatures will climb to above average today with southeast winds becoming 10-20 mph by afternoon. Dry and very warm conditions will continue into Monday and Tuesday. Some smoke from the Canadian wildfires may move back into the area for Monday.
Upper ridge axis will shift just east of the forecast area by Wednesday, exposing the area to southwest upper flow. Weak energy ejecting out of the western trof will cross the area, bringing very small chances for showers and isolated storms. At this time, best chances for scattered precipitation look to be Wednesday into Wednesday night, and late Thursday night into Friday.
By next weekend, models have the western trof lift northeastward and become somewhat inverted over the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, giving the area its best chance for more widespread precipitation. The Canadian model keeps the trof more progressive, but develops a weak upper low over the area, which gives the same result - better chances for precip over the weekend. Will have to monitor the evolution of this trof over the next several days.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 944 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. KGCC could see a few hours of gusty winds around 20 kts tonight, with gusts weakening by early Sunday morning.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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