textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Another round of passing storms is likely this afternoon and evening for northeast Wyoming and far western and southwestern South Dakota.

-Sufficient moisture and shear is in place to support a few strong to severe storms.

-Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Latest satellite imagery and radar show mostly clear to clear skies for most of the area. The big exception is the Black Hills and northeast Wyoming, where clouds and a few storm cells have bubbled up in the heat of the day. As of this writing, 1 PM, these storms havent lasted long and fade out quickly after maturing.

For the rest of this afternoon through tonight, storms will continue to develop through the afternoon and track east then southeast through the evening. Some of these storms have the potential to be severe with the main concern being hail and a secondary concern for strong wind gusts. Overnight though should be quiet with light winds and overnight temps dropping to the upper 50s to lower 60s.

For Friday, an upper level high pressure will build and start to shift northward. This will bring a warming trend to the area. Afternoon temps on Friday will reach the 90s for most of the area. Low end chances for short lived, afternoon storms in the Black Hills.

The weekend is looking hot with highs at or above 100F for both Saturday and Sunday. Morning temps will be in the 60s to near 70. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued due to heat index values above 100 degrees for multiple days in a row. With the hot temperatures and low dew points, humidities will be low so fire weather conditions will be elevated.

For a quick look at next week, the hot weather will continue through mid week. A potential pattern change would give cooler, but still warmer than normal, temperatures later in the week. As the pattern changes, thunderstorms would be possible.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday) Issued At 1125 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Another round of convection is expected today, primarily over the Black Hills and areas east. A PROB30 has been included for KRAP, thunderstorms will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible near/under stronger storms. 12Z suite of CAMs had little confidence areas of northeastern WY near KGCC would be impacted by TS, so it was left out. Will be closely monitoring the development of storms today in case the surface boundary slows and pops storms further west than anticipated.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-029>032-041>043-046- 072>075-077-078. WY...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ054>056-058>060.