textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather expected through early next week

- Above average temperatures return for the weekend

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Mild and dry afternoon on tap as upper level ridge builds in the western US. Drier weather and warming temps expected through the weekend as the ridge continues to build. With humidities dropping into the upper teens to 20s tomorrow, elevated fire wx conditions may develop over portions of northeastern WY and southwestern SD where breezy southwest winds will develop in the afternoon.

Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly late in the weekend. Closed upper low makes its way onshore over southern CA by Sunday. This system transforms to an open wave as treks northeastward across the desert Southwest and the Rockies. It should pass to our south early in the week with the main impacts being breezy southeasterly winds across portions of our area Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures next week will continue to be seasonably mild with highs in the 60s to 70s across much of the area.

Next chances for precip arrive later next week as another trof deepens across the western US, though it's still too far out to determine any specifics about precip chances or timing.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.