textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds across western South Dakota tonight behind a cold front - gusts 50 to 60 mph.

- Accumulating snow Wednesday night into Thursday, best chances from northeastern Wyoming into south-central South Dakota, where 4+ inches is possible (~50-60% probability).

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Tuesday) Issued at 927 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Current upper level analysis depicts a trough axis stretching from north-central MT through the Northern Plains. Further upstream, a shortwave ridge is centered over the Northern Rockies with a deep upper trough digging off the southern CA coast. Surface low pressure is centered over eastern SD/western MN with a cold front stretching from the low southward through the Central and Southern Plains. Colder air and gusty northwesterly winds have overspread the forecast area with the passage of this cold front. Gusts of 50 to 60+ mph are ongoing across portions of the western SD plains, where a High Wind Warning remains in effect. Have expanded the current Wind Advisory to include much of western SD into south- central SD through 12z.

Attention then turns to snow potential late Wednesday through Thursday as an open wave pivots through the Central Plains. Considerable spread remains among the deterministic and ensembles, lending low confidence on final amounts across the forecast area. Currently, there are two distinct solutions among the determinstic models, which is reflected in the ensemble spread/statistics: 1) higher amounts stretching from northwestern SD into south-central, with heavier banding possible across south-central SD into NE; and 2) the axis of snow shifted southwest, with the bulk of the heaviest snow from northeastern WY through the Black Hills into NE; leaving a sharp cutoff/very little snow from northwestern SD into south- central SD as dry air intrudes into the forecast area along the northern periphery of the developing low. The 01z NBM reflects more members hinting at solution 2, with the axis of best accumulating snow potential shunted southwestward and best potential of accumulating snow across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and far southwestern SD (prob >4" ~50-60%). Given the uncertainty and overall snow amounts trending downward, will forgo any winter headlines with this forecast update. Ultimately, regardless of snow amounts, breezy northwest winds will result in areas of blowing snow and hazardous travel where snow/winds best align.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued At 428 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Gusty northwest winds continue across the northwestern SD plains this morning into the afternoon.

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period. Another system will begin pushing into NE WY after 00-02z this evening with snow and low clouds resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions by the end of the forecast period, especially for northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southwestern SD. KRAP is expected to remain low VFR cigs, but could see MVFR/IFR conditions due to falling and blowing snow at times late in the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ early this morning for SDZ001-002-012>014-031-032-043-046-047-049-073-077-078. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Thursday for SDZ024>030-041-042-044-072-074>076. WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Thursday for WYZ057-060. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Thursday for WYZ054>056-058-059.