textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of light precipitation continue into Thursday morning.

- Stronger winter storm moves in Thursday evening through much of Friday.

- Mild and drier conditions settle in the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Current upper air models and Water Vapor imagery show southwest flow over the forecast area, as current wave impacting the region sits over WY and CO. 20Z surface analysis shows low centered over WY with a warm front stretching into western NE, a secondary front runs from northwest SD into central ND. Radar currently shows widespread returns over western SD. Winds are generally out of the south to southwest and breezy, with temperatures sitting in the 30s to mid 40s.

As the first disturbance treks across the northern/central plains today and tonight, expect areas of precipitation to continue. Most areas will be rain through this evening (with northwest SD seeing some snow), but will transition to snow as temperatures drop below freezing tonight. Light accumulations under an inch are generally expected, with some areas in northwest SD seeing accumulations of an inch or two through Thursday morning. Precipitation will taper off from west to east as the low exits the region.

After a dry period during the day Thursday, attention turns to the second more strong disturbance affecting the region. Upper closed low traverses over the Rockies, entering the northern plains Thursday night into Friday morning. Precipitation returns out ahead of the low Thursday evening, becoming more widespread in the overnight hours. Temperatures will make this a tricky event, as Thursday afternoon temps climb back into the 40s over northwestern SD to near 60 in southwestern SD. So precipitation will start out as rain, transitioning to snow eventually but timing will be key. Regardless of precip type, widespread wetting rains are expected Thursday night through Friday night with this system. NBM's probability of QPF >= 0.1" sits in the 70-99 percent range over the entire forecast area, while the highest chances for QPF >= 0.5" sit in the 60-90 percent range closer to central SD. Right now the best chances for accumulating snow are in the Black Hills and areas north of I-90. The highest amounts are expected in northwestern SD as well as the higher elevation Black Hills, where the cooler temperatures will be in place. NBM probabilities for 6" or more for these areas sit in the 70-95 percent range. Forecast confidence in exact snow totals remains low as model guidance still shows a wide spread in snowfall totals, given the forecast temperatures during this event.

Precipitation will taper off Friday night into Saturday morning, and dry conditions return for the remainder of the weekend as upper ridge returns over the western CONUS. Highs rebound back into the 40s and 50s for Saturday, and 50s to mid 60s for Sunday. Mostly dry conditions continue through middle of next week, however long range models point to some weak disturbances latter half of next week that may bring chances for light precipitation.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 622 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

High-res models and radar trends support -RA hanging on through about 02z/8pm at KRAP, as winds shift from southeast to northeast as early as 01z/7pm. Thereafter, potential seems to be increasing for fairly widespread fog and low stratus overnight east of the Black Hills with a very moist low-level airmass and recent rain/snow, with support now across the HRRR, NBM, and MOS guidance. Have trended the forecast into this scenario with 1SM OVC004 from 10-16z/4-10am, but forecast confidence is leaning low on exact timing and how low vsbys may drop. IFR conditions could develop earlier than advertised. Will likely need to monitor observational trends and try to jump on amendments as needed. Meanwhile, VFR conditions are expected at KGCC. Precipitation with our next incoming storm system will arrive across the region Thursday late afternoon and evening.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through late Friday night for SDZ001-002-012>014-024-025-078. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for SDZ002-014- 078. WY...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through late Friday night for WYZ056-057-060.