textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Mild and dry weather most of next week as Pacific air remains over the region

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Friday) Issued at 1107 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Mild split flow can be expected most of next week. Warm Pac air will dominate the weather as arctic air shifts back NE. Cold front has stalled over the western FA today with mild flow over northeast WY and far western SD. Much colder to the east with teens and single digits in the eastern Dakotas. Weak sfc low will move through the area this afternoon, supporting mild flow over the BH and SE. Cold air will shift back south tonight as easterly flow returns behind the front. Very dry flow should preclude any upslope fog with no hires solutions suggesting it attm. Hence, have left fog out of the forecast tonight. Warm front shifts back east Sunday, with mild conds expected over the western 2/3. Split upper trough will track south of the region Monday/Monday night, with some light rain/snow possibly clipping the far southern FA, along the NE border. Dry air to the north will support a sharp cutoff to precip over the area, hence the highest pops remain south of the FA. Mild weather can be expected most of next week with temps running 15 to 25 degrees above climo norms through Wed/Thu. The next decent chance for rain/snow looks to be Thursday, when a stronger trough moves through the region. This will support a cooler Friday before warm air returns to the region.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 957 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

MVFR CIGS over central SD will move east of the area by 20z. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty NW winds will continue this afternoon across NE WY and far western SD.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.