textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler weekend temperatures, then warming up next week - Limited, low impact precipitation potential overnight/Saturday morning in the far north, and then Monday for south of half of the CWA

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Friday) Issued at 923 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

04z surface analysis had cold front bisecting the CWA from central MT through central NE. It has stalled this evening as it becomes parallel to the upper flow per latest water vapour loop, which had one shortwave passing to our northeast and another emerging out of AB. These waves will wiggle the cold front over the CWA.

Tonight, shortwave to our northeast races southeast, taking weak QG/frontogenesis forcing with it. Combined with limited low level moisture, expect QPF/light snow amounts to be minimal near the ND/SD border. Overnight/Saturday, AB shortwave drops southeast into the Great Lakes. Ahead of it, cold front will bend back a bit northeast as southeasterly flow develops along associated weak low coming out of MT. Behind the low, the cold front will clear the CWA with gusty northwest winds (30-50% chance 40mph gusts). Temperatures will be tricky Saturday with tight isotherms across the area (20s behind the cold front, some 40s/some 50s ahead of it).

Sunday through next week, split flow persists with limited return flow ahead of modest shortwave troughs that will pass Monday and then Thursday/Friday. The late week system might have a little more oomph, but moisture will be limited with not much cool air to work with. So, low impact precipitation potential will continue along with mild temperatures overall.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 1002 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Gusty winds will pick back up after 15z with gusts from 25-35kts out of the north/northwest. A band of light snow with local MVFR conditions has developed across NW SD this evening. Snow will be limited to NW SD and will taper off after 09z. Outside of the snow, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.

IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.

textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.