textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated light precipitation expected through tonight.
- Near or above normal temperatures through the forecast period.
- Mostly dry conditions expected over the next week.
DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026
Current Water Vapor and upper air models show northwest flow aloft, with an upper low located over the southern plains. 20Z surface analysis shows high pressure over eastern MT, while the cold front that passed through us this morning is now in eastern Nebraska. Current radar shows a line of light showers from northwestern into central SD. Temperatures sit in the 50s to mid 60s, with generally light winds.
Little change to the overall pattern is expected through the week, with zonal to northwest flow aloft hanging around. Ongoing light precipitation will taper off this evening, and dry conditions are expected tonight through Friday. Upper ridge builds over the western CONUS Friday, resulting in warmer temperatures, with highs generally in the 70s over the weekend. Next disturbance comes Saturday as a wave rides the northwest flow through the Dakotas. Current models keep the better forcing in northwestern SD up into North Dakota. Very limited moisture in the region, so any precipitation will likely only amount to a trace or a few hundredths.
Upper ridge continues to dominate the western CONUS through much of next week, resulting in temperatures staying above normal, with a few chances for light precipitation as weak shortwaves ride the northwest flow into the northern plains.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued At 511 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026
Light showers will linger over portions of northwest South Dakota through 02/11-13z. Outside of any heavier precipitation cores, VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Winds are expected to increase from the southeast/south this evening and into tomorrow, especially across northeastern WY and portions of western South Dakota where gusts of 25-30KT are expected. Gusty winds will persist across northeast Wyoming through 02/15z and will pick up for western South Dakota around 02/14z and last through 02/22-24z.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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