textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Thursday, especially across southwestern into south central SD and portions of northeastern WY.

- High winds move through the area Thursday with gusts of up to 70 to 75 mph over northwestern and southwestern SD.

- Multiple rounds of light rain/snow Thursday night through Sunday. Best chances for accumulating snow will be in the Black Hills where 6+" of snow is possible. Northwestern SD and northeastern WY could see 1 to 4" of snow.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1221 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Current upper air analysis depicts broad ridging over the western US with northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Skies over the CWA are mostly clear with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the 40s with breezy northwest winds. Cloud cover will increase tonight as upper level wave and attendant sfc cold front approach the region. Thursday will start out on the warm side as WAA ahead of the sfc low commences and winds shift to the southwest. Temps across western SD could jump into the upper 50s to upper 60s, especially over the plains east of the Black Hills where westerly winds will support downsloping. With RHs dropping into the 20-30% range, the warm temperatures, and strong westerly winds, we could see widespread elevated to near critical fire wx conditions especially over southwestern into south central SD.

Winds will begin to increase Thursday morning as a strong sfc front pushes through the CWA. Strong 3 hour pressure rises of 5 to 7 mb and CAA behind the front will support strong northwest winds. Forecast soundings depict steep lapse rates with winds of 70+ kt at the top of the mixed layer which will support gusts of up to 70-80+ mph across the western SD plains and gusts of up to 60-70 mph across northeastern WY. While not expecting this event to be as historic as the December wind storm, do have high confidence in a high end wind event with the potential for tree damage and power outages. Have opted to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning and added in the Black Hills where gusts of 60-65 mph are possible with higher ridge top gusts likely.

Light rain and snow will accompany the frontal passage Thursday night into Friday morning. Strong upper level flow (120-140kt jet at H30) will remain over the Northern Plains through the weekend with midlevel frontogenesis setting up over the CWA and supporting a longer duration light rain/snow event. Sfc baroclinic zone will also cut across the CWA which will influence where the rain/snow line is and thus how much accumulation places will get. Best chances for accumulating snow will be in the Black Hills where NBM probs of >6" of snow through Sunday have increased to ~50-70%. On the plains, northwestern SD will remain on the colder side of the boundary and has the best chance of seeing accumulations (NBM probs for >4" snow through Sunday are ~30-50%).

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 507 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will develop after 09-11z Thursday morning, shifting to northwest after 19-21z. Gusts to 40-50 knots likely at both KGCC and KRAP; strongest winds across western and northwestern SD plains (including KRAP) with gusts to 50-60+ knots possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1221 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Warm, dry, and very windy conditions will support widespread elevated to near critical fire wx Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the 50s to near 70 on the plains with afternoon RHs ranging from around 20-30% across portions of the NE WY plains and from the Meade County plains and southward. West- southwesterly winds will increase Thursday morning with gusts of up to to 40-50 mph across much of the western SD plains by late morning. Winds will shift to the west and then northwest in the afternoon hours as the front moves through. The winds behind the front are expected to be stronger with sustained winds of 30-45 mph, gusting to 60 to 70 over much of the area with gusts of up to 80 mph possible over the western SD plains.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Thursday for SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046- 047-049-072>078. WY...High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ054>060.