textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer through Tuesday, then becoming unsettled and cooler.

- Isolated TS possible this afternoon and Tuesday across western SD, with some low-end potential for severe storms.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions through Tues across portions of northeast WY.

- Wildfire smoke is expected to linger much of the week, with thicker smoke at times across the western third

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1249 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Early this afternoon, we are still watching and waiting to see if we can get some storms going. Thunderstorm chances are still highly conditional and will depend on whether or not we can break the cap. Yesterday, one storm was able to develop and as of this writing, clouds are building over the central Black Hills. So it's possible.

For tonight, any storms that are able to develop, they will move east through the evening. Overnight looks quiet with diminishing winds and overnight lows in the 50s to 60s.

Tuesday looks similar to today, with highs mostly in the upper 80s to 90s. Zonal flow will keep the daily chances for afternoon storms in place. SPC has placed a Slight (level 2 of 5) over the central SD counties for Tuesday.

The SPC has also placed a Slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday over SW SD. Modest westerly winds aloft will be over the central High Plains Wednesday with a surface low developing near the CO/KS border. Easterly surface winds north of the low over Nebraska into southern South Dakota will maintain moisture and instability into the area. Storms will form over the High Plains and move eastward through the evening. Hail may occur initially, with damaging gusts possible during the evening.

Unsettled pattern under zonal flow will give the area cooler temps and daily chances for rain and storms for the second half of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1112 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Low clouds continue to burn off east of the Black Hills, otherwise VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Wildfire smoke will continue to remain in the area, but no impacts are expected. Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon (22Z) into evening, particularly in northwest SD. Impacts to KRAP are unlikely (therefore left out of TAFs), but any brief storm may be capable of small hail and erratic, gusty winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1249 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are developing across northeastern WY and far southwestern SD early this afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will last into the evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for these areas.

Hot and dry weather with elevated fire weather conditions (especially over northeastern WY) will continue through the mid week. Cooler and unsettled weather moves into the region by Wednesday and continues through the late week.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for SDZ322. WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314>317.