textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms are still possible today in and near the Black Hills but the evening and overnight look quiet across the area.

- Fire weather concerns return to parts of southwest South Dakota and northeast Wyoming Sunday afternoon into early evening. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued.

- Better chances for thunderstorms early next week

- Above normal highs will continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Latest satellite and radar imagery (as of 2PM) shows clear to mostly clear skies around the plains. But the Black Hills had 1 storm cell develop that produced 2 inch hail stones. It faded out as quickly as it developed.

For the rest of this afternoon through tonight, any thunderstorms that are able to get going will fade out quickly again. Overnight will be dry with lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

Tomorrow, Sunday, is looking much warmer than today. Skies will be clear to mostly clear and dry again but afternoon temps jump into the 90s to near 100F. With the hot air, relative humidity will dip to around 10 to 25%, lowest percentages will be in northeast Wyoming and southwest South Dakota. Wind speeds in the afternoon will be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph. With numbers like that so close to Red Flag Warning criteria, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for parts of the far southwest CWA.

To start the next week, Monday and Tuesday bring back the storm chances. While the overall pattern has an upper level high pressure building over the desert southwest, a ridge riding low could bring storm chances to the area. Both Monday and Tuesday have chances for storms in the afternoon. Model data points to there being a chance for those storms to be strong to severe, stay tuned for updates.

A quick glance at the rest of the week, the near daily chances for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms continue. Temperatures will be at or above normal with highs in the 80s to 90s, near 100 degrees are possible again late in the week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued At 509 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for SDZ322. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for WYZ315-317.