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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

-Warm and windy this week with critical to near critical fire weather conditions the rest of the week

-Cooler late this weekend/early next week with some low chances for showers

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Monday) Issued at 1142 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Western CONUS ridge will remain in place most of this week, supporting warm and dry weather. Ridge topping impulses will support weak cool fronts at times, with little to no precip with each system. Breezy NW winds today behind the Great lakes upper trough. Winds will gradually subside through the day. The next upper trough will move into the Pac NW and will support a deepening lee-side trough. This will allow SE winds to increase Wed with gusts over 40 mph expected across NW SD at times. Associated frontside impulse will shift east into NE WY later in the afternoon and evening. Sufficient LL moisture should be in place for isolated high based showers/TS. If convection does develop, gusty winds would be expected per inverted-V profiles. Convection chances will shift NE overnight. Did add some low pops. Sfc trough will shift through the FA Wed night into Thur morning, supporting gusty NW winds. Breezy winds can expected Thur, esp over NW SD where adv level winds look possible. Breezy NW winds will continue into Friday as another weak impulse advects through westerly flow on the south side of the deeper southern Canadian upper trough. Deeper upper trough will move into the Rockies this weekend, leading to much cooler temps by Sunday as well as slightly better (albeit still low) chances for showers into early next week. Expect highs in the 50s and 60s most places Sunday and Monday before things start to warm back up Tues. Models are indicating that we may see better chances for rain later in the week as Gulf moisture shifts north ahead of a Rockies trough.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued At 445 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds over SD will diminish early this evening. South to southeasterly winds will become breezy Wednesday morning across NE WY and the western SD plains and continue through the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1142 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Warm, dry and, windy conds with receptive fuels will continue to support critical to near critical conds to most of western SD through the end of the week. A fire weather watch has been issued for much of western SD Wed through Thur, with a long duration of critical fire weather conditions expected. Breezy SE winds will develop Wed ahead of a trough of low pressure. Very dry conds, with RH's expected to fall to as low as 10 percent both Wed and Thur afternoon (possibly Friday as well). The trough will move through Wed evening and support gusty NW winds, with poor overnight recovery. Gusty NW winds will continue Thur with continued very dry profiles. Dry and breezy through Sat, with potential extension of any fire headlines in SW SD. Cooler with shower chances early next week, leading to a break in fire weather concerns.

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