textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Chances for isolated storms/showers daily. Small chance for severe storms Thursday afternoon in the southwest.
- Warming up for the weekend.
DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Current upper air models show ridge over the Rockies, with northwest flow over the forecast area. 19Z surface analysis shows high pressure over western North Dakota this afternoon, while a frontal boundary sits over eastern Wyoming into Nebraska. Winds are currently light and variable over the area, with temperatures in the 80s. Satellite shows some CU development over the Black Hills, otherwise mostly clear skies.
An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening. The best chance for storms will be in the Black Hills, as well as northeast Wyoming to southwest SD closer to the frontal boundary. CAPE values in the 200-500 j/Kg range along with eff shear 30-40kts and modest lapse rates will support a small hail and wind threat if any storms are able to get going. Another weak disturbance progged to move through the region Thursday, bringing more isolated storm chances, mainly over the Black Hills to southwestern SD. Later Thursday into Friday the upper ridge moves over the region, prompting warmer temperatures, with highs over the weekend ranging from the upper 80s to near 100. Sunday into Monday an upper low treks across the northern plains and southern Canada, however better forcing looks to remain north of our area. Cannot rule out some showers and storms on Sunday, mainly over northwestern SD.
As the upper low slides eastward, pattern shifts for our region, with southwest flow setting up early next week. This will lower temperatures a bit before shortwave ridging moves back in Tuesday. In typical August fashion, weak disturbances will bring near daily chances for isolated showers and storms.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1058 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Aforementioned showers in far northeast WY and southwest SD have not gained any likeliness in recent model guidance, so have been left out. Thursday afternoon will be windy, with gusts up to 20kts expected.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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