textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- It will remain hot through the weekend with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

- Chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday, mainly across the Black Hills and parts of northeast Wyoming. Thunderstorms become a little more numerous this weekend.

- Slightly cooler conditions finally look to return for next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 939 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Hot weather continues with temperatures across much of the CWA in the mid to upper 90s to low 100s through this weekend. Have opted to extend Heat Advisory through Sunday evening due to the prolonged nature of the heat. With temperatures each night staying in the upper 70s to low 80s until well into the overnight hours, not much relief expected overnight.

Isolated/scattered shower and storm activity along a stationary sfc front/trof draped across northeastern WY into northwestern SD will diminish through the late evening hours. This boundary will slowly push to the south through the day tomorrow with enough instability for scattered storms to develop over the Black Hills and northeastern WY in the afternoon. Deep layer shear is lacking with the sluggish upper flow so while a few strong storms can't be ruled out, organized severe weather isn't expected.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Wednesday) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

18Z upper level analysis has persistent ridge across the central CONUS with upper low spinning off the Pacific Northwest coast. Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area, with some isolated thunderstorm development occurring over the Black Hills. At the surface, there is a weak cool front that has moved into northwestern SD and northeastern WY, evident by a shift to light northerly winds in those areas. Temperatures at noon across the forecast area range from the 80s along and west of the cool front, to the low to mid 90s east of the front.

Temperatures are still expected to top out in the mid 90s to low 100s across the area this afternoon, warmest east of the Black Hills. Isolated storms are expected across the Black Hills and parts of northeast Wyoming this afternoon, with some storms persisting into the evening hours. Lows tonight will be in the 60s to lower 70s.

Upper ridge remains nearly stationary through Friday with temperatures similar to today. Weak cold frontal boundary will slowly drop through the area, with light northeast to east winds expected across the area. Models/CAMS are showing a little better chance for scattered thunderstorms over the Black Hills and northeast Wyoming Friday afternoon, with mainly dry conditions persisting across the SD plains. Very mild temperatures persist into the overnight hours.

Upper ridge shifts a bit east over the weekend. Very warm temperatures will persist across the area, but storm chances become a little better as upper flow becomes more westerly with some weak impulses crossing the Northern Plains.

West to northwest flow becomes a little stronger early next week. This will lead to slightly cooler conditions and a little more unsettled weather for next week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 958 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Leftover showers from evening thunderstorms are diminishing north of the Black Hills. Another round of pop up storms is possible in and near the Black Hills Friday afternoon.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Sunday for SDZ001-002- 012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078. WY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ054>056-058>060.