textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain/snow showers continue into this evening.

- Warming trend over the weekend with dry conditions, resulting in elevated to critical fire weather.

UPDATE

Issued at 1002 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Models have struggled this evening with handling the earlier band of rain/snow shifting south into the Black Hills, and then degree of coverage of rain/snow along the secondary cold front now pushing toward Rapid City. Have extended some PoPs and very light QPF with this activity for several more hours tonight, but expectation remains that a diminishing trend will be observed as drier air pushes in. Overall rain/snow amounts will remain very light (few hundredths of an inch QPF), although expect brief reductions in visibility where precip is snow along with wind gusts to 25 MPH. Winds will remain a bit breezy overnight across the Plains.

No major changes noted in the forecast this weekend as we trend into another period of elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Main focus remained to increase winds/wind gusts over NBM guidance for both Friday and Saturday. The FIRE WEATHER WATCH remains in effect from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday across portions of the southwestern to south-central Plains. The strongest winds Friday night into Saturday morning will be a bit displaced overall from the driest RH values Saturday afternoon, but a period of decent overlap remains expected there supporting the watch.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show near zonal flow over the northern and central plains this afternoon. Surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary running west/east through the CWA. Radar has some light returns just north of the Black Hills along the boundary, as well as some upslope precipitation over the Black Hills. Winds are generally out of the north and light to breezy, with temperatures in the 30s to low 40s.

Band of precipitation will continue to push south this afternoon and weaken as it taps into drier air. Some areas have reached 0.1-0.2" QPF this morning, but expecting lighter amounts as it gets towards I-90. The exception will be over the higher elevation Black Hills, which could see 0.05-0.1" QPF through this afternoon. Expect light precipitation will end during the evening hours. A secondary cold front moves through tonight into Friday morning. No moisture expected with this boundary. However gusty winds (20-30 mph)may continue through Friday morning.

Attention then turns to the weekend, where a warming trend is expected, as broad upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. Temperatures climb back up to 20-30F above normal for Saturday through Monday. Elevated to critical fire weather may be possible at times as the warmer temperatures combine with low RH and gusty winds at times. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for parts of southwestern to south-central SD for Saturday, and more headlines may be necessary for Sunday/Monday.

Forecast confidence wavers further out towards middle of next week, as long range models differ on the overall synoptic pattern. ECMWF points towards trough digging into the region and bringing active weather middle of next week and beyond, while the GFS has ridging mid-week, and then potential for troughing towards next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 1024 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Secondary impusle will exit the FA late this evening/early Fri morning with MVFR (local IFR conds) in snow ending. Conds will then trend VFR all places.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 125 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A warming trend over the weekend, coupled with low RH's and gusty winds at times will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Saturday morning winds will pick up due to a low level jet passing through, resulting in wind gusts 30 to 45 mph at times for parts of the western SD plains. RH's are also expected to dip into the teens over much of the forecast area for Saturday. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for parts of southwestern to south- central SD for Saturday morning into the evening, where the stronger winds and low RH's coincide.

Sunday is expected to have even lower RH's, however the winds aren't quite as bad. Low afternoon RH's will continue into Monday as well with stronger winds returning. Moderate to high confidence more fire weather headlines will be necessary for Sunday and Monday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for SDZ325-326-332>335. WY...None.