textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will end this morning across southwestern to south-central South Dakota.

- Northwest winds will gust up to 55 mph today and tonight across large portions of the western South Dakota plains. A Wind Advisory is in effect.

- Widespread freezing temperatures expected tonight through Friday morning. Freeze Warning in effect.

- Dry and near-seasonal temperatures expected most days through early next week. Above average temperatures possible Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 929 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Overall trend continues, with little change to the forecast through the weekend. Have tweaked PoPs tonight slightly based off CAMs and ongoing precipitation. Kept with the trend of toning down post-frontal winds for Thursday, as the NBM is still running pretty high. Hi-res models and MOS guidance continues to point to widespread gusts 45-55 mph for much of Thursday over the western SD plains. Wind Advisory remains in effect for 11 AM to 10 PM MDT. With much cooler temperatures behind the front. Freeze warning will be needed for Friday morning, however am holding off, given the current headlines in effect for Thursday.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Upper low is centered near the Four Corners region with upper level ascent overspreading the region. Precipitation will increase across northeastern WY later this afternoon, spreading into southwestern SD into south-central SD after 06z tonight. Precipitation will be focused along the NE/SD border where 0.5-1.25" of rain is possible (probability >0.5" ~70-80%). Precipitation amounts taper off rapidly closer to I-90 with spotty, light amounts north of I-90. Rain ends Thursday morning as the system pushes east.

Upper level trough pushes through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday. Surface low pressure drops out of Canada into the Upper Midwest with a cold front to sweep through the forecast area Thursday morning and afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds expected behind the front with widespread 40 to 55 mph gusts, strongest across northwestern SD and portions of the western SD plains. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for these areas. Transient high wind gusts (> 60 mph) are possible, although coverage and frequency do not warrant High Wind headlines.

Cold air advection and clearing skies will result in widespread freezing/sub-freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning for the majority of the forecast area.

Upper level ridging quickly builds over the western half of the country Friday into the weekend. Above average temperatures are forecast for the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued At 504 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain showers and MVFR/IFR conditions over SW to SCentral SD will gradually move eastward and dissipate this morning. VFR conditions will follow areawide by midday and continue through the rest of the forecast period. Strong NW winds will develop this morning and continue through tonight, especially across western to central SD. Gusts up to 50kt are possible. Winds across NE WY will gust up to 35kt.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 11 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-026-030>032-041>043-072-073-077-078. Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ046-047-049. WY...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ054>056-058>060.