textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain will move into the area overnight tonight and continue through Sunday

- A trace to an inch of snow possible over northwestern SD and the Black Hills on Monday.

- Warming trend commences Tuesday through the end of the week with highs in the 50s to 60s

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 1217 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Sfc analysis shows strong cold front has pushed to the east of the forecast area with northwest winds steadily diminishing through this morning. Upper level analysis and water vapor show a closed upper low over AZ with convection moving through northern NM. Meanwhile to the north of the Dakotas, an upper low spins over central SK. Expect clearing skies through this afternoon thanks to height rises and drier air moving into the area. Highs this afternoon will be more seasonable, ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Our next round of precip will move into the area Sunday afternoon as the upper low over the Desert Southwest begins to slowly move into the region. Area of modest QG forcing along with near saturated moisture profiles from around H850 to H700 will support precip in the form of rain beginning overnight tonight into early Sunday morning across south central SD and moving northward through the day as the upper low drifts northeast. Rain will continue through the overnight hours Sunday with the Black Hills getting cold enough for some snow to mix in.

The upper low continues its trek across the region through Monday with chances for precip continuing through the day. As colder air associated with the core of the upper low moves into the area, snow may begin to mix in with the rain, especially over northwestern SD and in and around the Black Hills. We may see a transition to all snow over the Black Hills and far northwestern SD late in the afternoon to evening. In terms of accumulations, there's still a little uncertainty as it will depend on when the colder air moves in at the mid levels and the exact track of the low. Even so, any accumulations are expected to be minor with some areas over the northwestern SD plains and Black Hills potentially seeing a dusting up to an inch of slushy accumulation. Any accumulations should be gone by Tuesday as warmer air moves back into the region.

Upper level shortwave and attendant moisture starved front will move in from the PNW later on Tuesday. Could see some light rain showers across far northeastern WY into northwestern SD with this system with the only other impacts expected being breezy southwest winds across the western SD plains and portions of northeastern WY late Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, upper level west- southwesterly flow will keep temperatures seasonably mild after Tuesday with dry weather expected through the late week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 1127 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The strong northwest winds across the region will continue to decrease today.

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day into tonight.

Late in this forecast period into the next, chances of showers will begin to increase from south to north over South Dakota before spreading northwestward into Wyoming. MVFR to IFR is likely.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.