textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and Wednesday.

- Gusty northwest winds Wednesday afternoon with gusts of 50+ MPH across northwestern SD, where a Wind Advisory has been issued.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Current upper air analysis shows compact upper low pushing southeastward from AB/BC. Further west, well define upper low spins just off the western US coast. Closer to home, southerly return flow has established itself over the CWA with stout low level jet supporting wind gusts of 35-40 mph across the western SD plains. Temperatures across the CWA remain on the cooler side, in the 40s to low 50s, with temps of 60s sitting just off to the west. Temps will warm through the afternoon as WAA ramps up ahead of aforementioned upper low as it deepens and ejects over the Northern Plains.

Strong cold front progged to push through the region late tonight. A band of light rain will accompany this front as it sweeps through the CWA. Pressure rises of 3-5 mb behind the front will support a brief period of gusty winds with advsy level (45+ mph) gusts likely. However, the duration of theses gusts are expected to be fairly short which will preclude issuance of any headlines for tonight. NBM still a little aggressive with the winds tomorrow afternoon with most guidance indicating gusts of 40-50 mph while the NBM is painting 55+ mph gusts over northwestern SD. Opted to cut down the winds for Wednesday afternoon, keeping gusts below 55 mph. Northwestern SD still in solid advisory range, therefore will hoist a wind advsy for Wednesday afternoon.

Weaker shortwave will push through the Northern Plains on Thursday, not expecting much with this system aside from some light rain/snow showers. Shortwave ridging builds into the region Friday, with temperatures trending warmer through the weekend. Longwave trof/closed upper low moves onshore this weekend with lead shortwave ejecting over the Central Plains by Sunday. This system gives us our next chances for precip (and perhaps some thunderstorms).

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 939 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A cold front is crossing the area at this time, bringing a band of light rain showers and very gusty winds behind the front. These winds will switch to the northwest with occasional gusts to 50kt for up to three hours behind the front. These gusts will clear the forecast area (SCentral SD) by 12z. Showers may at times bring MVFR CIGS...but intensity will be light enough for VSBY to stay VFR. Widespread VFR conditions are expected on Wednesday, but strong NW winds will redevelop in the late morning hours and persist until the evening. Gusts to 48kt are expected across NW SD, with occasionally higher gusts at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1230 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Elevated to near critical fire wx conditions will develop across northeastern WY this afternoon as a warm and dry airmass pushes into the region. Temperatures will climb into the 60s to low 70s this afternoon with minimum humidities dropping to 15 to 20%. These humidities combined with westerly winds gusting 15 to 25 mph will create widespread elevated to near critical fire wx conditions across northeastern WY this afternoon. Localized critical fire wx conditions may develop in some of the breezier spots but not confident enough in widespread critical fire wx conditions developing to issue a Red Flag Warning.

Elevated to near critical fire wx conditions return Wednesday afternoon, primarily across southwestern into south central SD and the southern Black Hills where humidities will drop to the upper teens to low 20s. Winds will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. Not confident enough in widespread critical fire wx conditions developing but the combination of dry conditions and winds will support elevated to near critical fire wx conditions for Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be stronger across northwestern SD with gusts of up to 55 mph, though humidities will be higher (30 to 40%).

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for SDZ001-002- 012>014-025-072-073-078. WY...None.