textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated high-based showers will develop over the southern Black Hills and southern SD this afternoon.
- Clearer skies and mild temps return for the weekend
- Chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Severe weather isn't expected.
DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026
Most recent water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows ridge axis extending from ID/MT into northern CA/NV. Meanwhile, an upper low sits over Ontario/Quebec. The Northern Plains sits under north/northwest flow with weak upper wave moving through SD. Recent KUDX scans are picking up on scattered high-based showers over Bennett County, though webcams in that area aren't showing any precip making it to the ground. CAMs also have hinted at showers developing in the convergence zone over the Southern Hills. Have painted light/isolated PoPs for southwestern SD for this afternoon.
Ridge builds into the region through early this weekend, bringing dry and warm conditions to the CWA late tonight into Saturday. Saturday will be warm with highs in the 70s across much of the area. Humidities Saturday afternoon will drop to ~15% across southwestern SD with winds gusting up to ~25 mph. This would put us near or at Red Flag criteria; however, the recent precip and fuels in green up preclude any critical fire weather concerns.
Ridge breaks down by Sunday, bringing northwest flow back to the region. Upper level wave slides southeastward from Canada and grazes the CWA on Sunday. Some showers/storms may develop across the Black Hills and western SD on Sunday afternoon as this wave moves through, though not expecting anything severe. Deterministic guidance in good consensus of a Rex Block developing over the western US for the beginning of next week. This would keep our neck of the woods under unsettled northwest flow with mild temperatures and periodic chances for some light precip as a result.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1113 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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