textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy and cooler temperatures through Saturday

- Light snow over the Black Hills Friday and Saturday. Total accumulations between 2-6" will be possible

- Turning breezy Friday and Saturday

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 124 PM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

Current analysis shows the strong area of low pressure quickly moving NE across eastern Nebraska with most of the precipitation staying well off to our east across eastern South Dakota. Over western South Dakota weak high pressure has moved into the region with a weak shortwave ejecting across the central Rockies, allowing for weak south to southwesterly flow to persist and advecting moisture into the area. This has translated to the cloudy skies being observed across much of western South Dakota.

Heading into the evening into the evening the approaching shortwave will bring increased chances for some light precipitation to develop, with the best chances occurring over the Black Hills. Temperatures across the Black Hills will be cold enough to support light snow thanks to a weak cold front progged to move through the region that will coincide with the arrival of the best QPF. This system will be weakly forced so we are just expecting several hours of light snow that will accumulate to around 1-3" in the Black Hills with little to no accumulation for the surrounding valleys and plains.

The main upper level trough moves through the region Friday night into Saturday and will bring another round of light precipitation. This is expected to bring minimal impacts as the characteristics of this system will lack significant moisture so light snow is once again expected to occur across the Black Hills with a low end chance of the surrounding valleys seeing flurries that will amount to no accumulation. Expect another 1-3" of snow for the Black Hills for a storm total of around 2-6" that will fall between Friday and Saturday. The wintry weather will end quickly as upper level ridging builds quickly into the region as we head into Sunday and into the first part of next week, with temperatures again rising into the upper 40s to low 50s.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued At 430 PM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

Light snow showers over northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills will continue overnight and move into western South Dakota this evening. MVFR/LCL IFR conditions possible in some of these snow showers. Outside of precipitation, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty northwest surface winds of 20G35 kts will develop after 16Z.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.