textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Morning snow showers ending across northern Black Hills. Otherwise dry, mild, and breezy today.

- Warmer temperatures and strong winds expected Tuesday, with gusts up to 65 mph.

- Turning colder and unsettled from Wednesday through the end of week. Periods of light snow likely.

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Sunday) Issued at 306 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Extensive upper level northwest flow continues across the western and central CONUS, with a series of embedded shortwaves. In the low levels...a warm front has pushed eastward into eastern SD. Surface low is located just north of eastern MT, with a trough extending southward into the CWA. Ahead of a weak wave in SE MT along the surface trough...KUDX radar shows a band of snow over NE WY just now approaching the western SD border. This snow is mainly expected to affect the northern Black Hills area and adjacent plains...and will end later in the morning. Minor accumulations are possible across the Black Hills where temps are below freezing. Otherwise a relatively quiet day is expected with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. As the surface low sinks into ND later this morning, an increasing pressure gradient across the CWA will support gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph. Can't rule out a gust or two reaching 50 mph but won't be widespread enough to justify a Wind Advisory. A strong wave will cross the northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains on Tuesday, with a stronger surface low on a similar track to today's. This will support strong winds over 35 mph with gusts over 60 mph. Will include the rest of the SD plains in the High Wind Watch from Fall River County eastward along the Nebraska border. Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s. A cold front is expected to quickly push through the CWA late Tuesday afternoon/early evening which, with the addition of strong CAA, should keep strong winds over the CWA after sunset. Light rain will be possible on Tuesday, perhaps becoming snow post-frontal in the evening. Models solution for the second half of the week continue to differ. There is agreement that much colder air will surge into the northern Plains on Thursday, but the GFS continues to show several inches of snow across the CWA while the ECM is generally less than three. Will continue to wait for better consistency.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 306 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Snow showers will affect the northern Black Hills area and adjacent plains this morning, resulting in localized MVFR/IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. WNW winds across the NW SD plains will increase this morning and gust to 35 to 40 kt...then decrease around sunset.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049- 072>078. WY...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for WYZ060.