textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front moves through today, bringing gusty winds and chances for rain/snow.

- Warming trend over the weekend with mostly dry conditions Saturday through middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 951 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Little change to the previous forecast. Upper trough and associated cold front will continue to shift east across the region tonight. Associated jet streak lift and precip band will quickly exit the FA overnight, with dry air working in fast Friday. Breezy NW winds will continue into Friday after a brief lull early Friday morning. Have extended the wind adv into NW SD and extended the time through Friday afternoon. Much colder Friday with lows Friday night into the teens and 20s most places. Warming up next week with dry conds returning.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 1211 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show trough over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow over the forecast area. Surface analysis depicts frontal boundary moving from northwest to southeast through the region today, with the low currently over northwestern SD. Winds are currently breezy out of the southwest for areas the front hasn't gone through, while areas to the north have northwest gusty winds. Temperatures sit in the 70s to low 80s for the southern half of the CWA, 50s and 60s to the north. Current radar shows showers starting to pop up over northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills.

A few forecast concerns for the day. For this afternoon, well above normal temperatures for the southern half of the forecast area, coupled with gusty southwest winds, is bringing near critical to critical fire weather concerns ahead of the front. Some areas may see slight relief with isolated showers popping up ahead of the main precipitation this evening into Friday. This afternoon into tonight, precipitation becomes more widespread behind the front. Multiple precipitation types given the timing of precipitation, but generally most places will see a transition to snow at some point this evening or overnight. Some light snow accumulations may be possible over the Black Hills and parts of northeastern Wyoming, but given the time of year and recent warmer temperatures, not expecting any to really stick and cause issues. As for precipitation amounts, most areas can expect a range of between a trace and 0.2". The higher amounts are expected in a band that stretches from northeastern WY through the northern Black Hills and into northwestern SD. HREF probabilities for QPF >= 0.25" range from 70-99 percent in this area. Deterministic forecast for precipitation range from 0.25-0.7" in this region. Precipitation is expected to taper off Friday afternoon, with dry conditions expected the rest of the day. Expect colder temps for Friday and Saturday following todays cold front. Lows dip into the 20s both Friday and Saturday morning.

Saturday most areas can expect dry conditions, but given the recent moisture, areas in the Black hills to southwestern SD could see some upslope rain/snow showers pop up in the afternoon, with little or no accumulations expected. Over the weekend, upper ridge builds over the western CONUS, prompting a warming trend back into the 60s Sunday, and 70s/80s for Monday. Dry conditions are expected Saturday evening through middle of next week. Longer range models point at a return to more unsettled weather returning the latter half of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued At 513 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions in light snow showers will continue to move out of the area through around 15-16z this morning. VFR conditions then expected through the rest of the TAF period. Gusty northwest winds will redevelop over the area through this morning, especially over the western SD plains where gusts of 35 to 45 KT expected.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-012-013-030- 031-042-073-078. WY...None.