textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures (25-35 degrees above average) on Thursday with potentially record breaking highs

- Above-average temperatures and dry weather to continue through this weekend

- Colder and unsettled early next week

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Wednesday) Issued at 1022 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows a Rex Block across the Pac coast through the Great Basin. Northwest flow continues across the northern Great Plains. Extensive warm air is rounding the top of the ridge across the northern Rockies/Montana into the CWA. Surface analysis shows the warm front near the Cheyenne River Valley, continuing southeastward. Lots of warm air advection tonight will bring to the region well above average temperatures. The warmest spots will be along the eastern foothills of the Black Hills and adjacent plains where downsloping will result in upper 60s to lower 70s. There is a good chance several daily max temp records will be tied or broken tomorrow. KUNR's record is 67 (1963) and KRAP is 63 (1963/2024). The NBM deterministic seems too low (mid to upper 60s), especially given the 25-75th percentile for areas east of the Hills is 70-73. Went with NBM 50Pct. Breezy NW winds, with gusts up 35-40 mph, are expected Thu afternoon, especially north of I-90 and also down by SW SD. A cold front will cross the area Thu evening, but the frontal boundary is expected to stall overnight near the SD/WY border. Max temps over western SD on Saturday will be 15-20F cooler than Thursday, but still well above average. On the other side of the front across NE WY, highs will again reach the 60s, especially as return flow sets up on the backside of a surface high. Warmer temps will then return for the weekend as a longwave ridge slowly makes its way into the central CONUS. A more active pattern is then progged to develop across the western/central CONUS. This will bring colder, more seasonable temperatures and chances for snow. The latest runs of the GFS/ECM/AIFS all show little snowfall across the forecast area, but run to run consistency has been poor.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued At 430 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. LLWS (40kt) is possible through 16z.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.

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