textproduct: Rapid City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Continued hot weather Monday and Tuesday.
- Cooler, near-normal, temps return mid week. Another round of hot weather next weekend.
- Isolated to scattered passing thunderstorm chances early in the week.
- Elevated fire weather conditions, mainly across northeast WY and far southwest SD.
DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 108 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026
Latest satellite imagery, radar, and webcams around the area show very little going on in the skies over western South Dakota and northeast Wyoming. A few clouds have come and gone over the northern Black Hills, hinting at the cap is holding, reducing thunderstorm chances.
For the rest of this afternoon through tonight, steady as we go with no real big changes continued clear skies. The only exception is a low chance of isolated storm development in far southeast Montana that would track into far northwest South Dakota. Otherwise, an upper trough will track through the northern plains tonight, swinging a weak cold front over the area. This could get a few showers and thunderstorms going across northwest South Dakota late tonight.
To start the week, Monday and Tuesday bring back the storm chances. The previously mentioned front looks to stall out over southern South Dakota Monday. This is where another round of thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, stretching from the Black Hills and southeast. After that, another round of storms is possible, out of Wyoming, that could bring storms to South Dakota late Monday into Tuesday.
From a big picture view, a ridge of high pressure will build over the desert southwest. The CWA will be on the far northern edge of this high pressure so we cant rule out little ridging riding waves that could give passing chances for storms mid week.
A quick look at late this week and the weekend, the ridge of high pressure will put some very warm air over the area. Temperatures will be well-above normal with highs in the 90s to 100s and overnight lows in the 60s to 70s.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1127 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026
VFR conds are expected through the valid forecast period. Look for a switch in the winds to the northwest around the 06/12Z time frame for the TAF locations.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. WY...None.
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