textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

-Warm and windy this week with critical to near critical fire weather conditions the rest of the week

-Cooler late this weekend/early next week with some low chances for showers

UPDATE

Issued at 1049 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Tonight will see winds diminish as the surface-low continues to push off over the Great Lakes, with temperatures dropping into the 40s and RH's recovering back into the 50s to upper 60s. Warm, dry, gusty conditions are still on track for Wednesday with increased upper ridging over the region. Temperatures will rebound into the 80s to low 90s with RHs dropping into the mid- to low-teens for much of the western SD plains. In addition to the warm temps and low RH values, gusty south/southeasterly winds will develop setting up another critical fire weather day. Due to these conditions, poor RH recovery Wednesday night into Thursday, and gusty winds returning Thursday, a RFW is in effect for much of the SD plains from noon Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday. There will be chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across northeast WY late Wednesday afternoon/evening that will push into western SD, however, little to no meaningful precipitation is expected. Thursday will see similar conditions as Wednesday, though cooler temperatures will work their way into northeastern WY and northwestern SD with gusty northwest winds. Friday looks similar to Thursday, with comparable temperatures, RHs, and gusty winds over northwest SD. However, the stronger winds are not expected to overlap with the lowest RHs, so a RFW is currently appears unlikely. Cooler temperatures and increased RHs will return by the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Monday) Issued at 1142 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Western CONUS ridge will remain in place most of this week, supporting warm and dry weather. Ridge topping impulses will support weak cool fronts at times, with little to no precip with each system. Breezy NW winds today behind the Great lakes upper trough. Winds will gradually subside through the day. The next upper trough will move into the Pac NW and will support a deepening lee-side trough. This will allow SE winds to increase Wed with gusts over 40 mph expected across NW SD at times. Associated frontside impulse will shift east into NE WY later in the afternoon and evening. Sufficient LL moisture should be in place for isolated high based showers/TS. If convection does develop, gusty winds would be expected per inverted-V profiles. Convection chances will shift NE overnight. Did add some low pops. Sfc trough will shift through the FA Wed night into Thur morning, supporting gusty NW winds. Breezy winds can expected Thur, esp over NW SD where adv level winds look possible. Breezy NW winds will continue into Friday as another weak impulse advects through westerly flow on the south side of the deeper southern Canadian upper trough. Deeper upper trough will move into the Rockies this weekend, leading to much cooler temps by Sunday as well as slightly better (albeit still low) chances for showers into early next week. Expect highs in the 50s and 60s most places Sunday and Monday before things start to warm back up Tues. Models are indicating that we may see better chances for rain later in the week as Gulf moisture shifts north ahead of a Rockies trough.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1035 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. South to southeasterly winds will become breezy Wednesday morning across NE WY and the western SD plains and continue through the evening. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the early evening across northeast WY, along with locally gusty winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1142 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Warm, dry and, windy conds with receptive fuels will continue to support critical to near critical conds to most of western SD through the end of the week. A fire weather watch has been issued for much of western SD Wed through Thur, with a long duration of critical fire weather conditions expected. Breezy SE winds will develop Wed ahead of a trough of low pressure. Very dry conds, with RH's expected to fall to as low as 10 percent both Wed and Thur afternoon (possibly Friday as well). The trough will move through Wed evening and support gusty NW winds, with poor overnight recovery. Gusty NW winds will continue Thur with continued very dry profiles. Dry and breezy through Sat, with potential extension of any fire headlines in SW SD. Cooler with shower chances early next week, leading to a break in fire weather concerns.

IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.

textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.