textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow slowly tapers off tonight.

- High Wind Watch Thursday with west winds of 35 to 45 MPH gusting over 70 MPH looking increasingly likely.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions also expected Thursday ahead of a very strong cold front.

- Prolonged period of light rain/snow Friday through Sunday with best chances of accumulating snow in the Black Hills and north of I-90.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight Through Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Upper level analysis shows broad, long-wave trough axis stretching from northern Manitoba southward through the Rockies. Water vapor imagery shows stout shortwave trough pushing through the forecast area. As of 1030pm MDT, snow continues to push southward with lingering snow showers across the northern Black Hills and foothills. Snow will slide south of the forecast area after 06z as shortwave pushes eastward and band of frontogenesis centered around 750-500 mb exits the region.

Clearing skies Wednesday with modest warm air advection with slightly warmer temperatures, although snow cover may limit temperatures Wednesday afternoon.

Active pattern begins in earnest Thursday through the weekend. Strong warm air advection Thursday will result in highs in the mid 50s to near 70 degrees, warmest on the SD plains. A strong clipper system will arrive Thursday afternoon with strong surface cyclogenesis across North Dakota and southern Canada. Cold air advection + steep lapse rates from surface to ~600mb + 70-80 knot winds atop the mixed layer will result in wind gusts 65-80+ mph Thursday afternoon and evening. A High Wind Watch remains in effect; almost certainly will need to be upgraded to a Warning.

Light rain and snow will accompany the frontal passage Thursday night into Friday morning. Active northwest flow will persist Friday through the weekend with a prolonged period of mid-level frontogenesis. Expecting a longer duration light rain/snow event Friday through Sunday, although rain/snow line and surface frontal boundary render low confidence in exact snow amounts. Best chance for accumulating snow in the Black Hills (NBM prob >6" ~30-50% in the northern and central Black Hills) with lesser amounts on the plains, particularly south of I-90 (NBM probs >4" ~40% on the plains north of I-90 and ~20% south of I-90).

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1054 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Widespread snow and attendant IFR conditions will end from northwest to southeast tonight, with improving conditions expected after 08z/2am at KRAP. Guidance supports a progressive trend back to VFR overnight, although at least FEW to SCT low- to mid-level clouds may hang around some areas, especially adjacent to the Black Hills. Mostly clear skies should dominate by late Wednesday morning with a slightly breezy but much quieter day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1035 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Strong west-southwesterly winds will overspread the region Thursday ahead of a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will warm into the 50s to near 70 on the plains with RH ~20-30% across portions of the NE WY plains and from Meade County plains southward Thursday afternoon. West-southwest winds with gusts to 25- 35 mph can be expected ahead of the front. As the front pushes through, winds will shift to northwest, first across NW SD and spreading southward through the evening. Gusts behind the front in excess of 60-70 mph are likely, particularly across the western SD plains.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049- 072>078. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for SDZ024. WY...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for WYZ054>056-058>060. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for WYZ057.