textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of light rain and snow is moving west-to-east through SW SD this morning. Precip will keep moving east and out of the area through the day.

- General northwest flow will keep unsettled weather in the area through Thursday.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 757 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Early morning forecast update expanded the chances and slight chances for thunder later this afternoon. Upper level disturbance will swing some potential for isolated thunderstorms in NW SD and parts of the Black Hills.

UPDATE Issued at 955 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

No changes needed to the forecast. Broad cyclonic flow continues across much of the CONUS. Weak upper ridging over the CWA is resulting in quiet weather...for now. The next wave is crossing CO/WY, heading toward the CWA. This will bring precipitation over the next 24 hours. Precip will be limited to near the SD border in NE WY, the Black Hills area, and the SD plains south and east of the Black Hills. Forecast QPF totals are generally in the 0.10-0.33" range, though a few locations may receive a little more. Snow amounts may be similar to Monday morning, with 1 to 3 inches over the Black Hills...and minor amounts across the surrounding foothills that will melt quickly Tuesday morning. Wouldn't be surprised if the plains across Fall River, Custer, to Oglala Lakota counties saw minor accumulations in the early morning hours, as well. Precip will end by Tue evening. The next disturbance will bring minor amounts of QPF on Wednesday. Drier air toward the end of the week will result in elevated fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 138 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

While the day started with rain and snow around the area, the heavier precip has moved east. So NE WY and W SD are looking at drier weather and clearing skies. This won't last long because another round of precip will move into the area from the SW late tonight and last into tomorrow. With the cooler air in place, rain and snow is likely tonight, again, before the precip switches over to rain as temps warm tomorrow. Snowfall totals tonight into tomorrow morning will be highest in the higher elevations of the Black Hills at around 1 to 3 inches, isolated higher amounts around 4 inches can't be ruled out.

As far as the rest of the week goes, it's not looking too bad. An overall northwest flow in the upper levels will keep some low-end PoPs in the forecast through the next several days. The exception is a ridge of high pressure later this week would give clear and sunny skies Thursday night through Friday night. There is even an argument for dry and sunny skies on Saturday but there is a slight chance for showers over the Black Hills Saturday afternoon. Beginning Sunday, the NW flow returns, bringing back the low-end PoPS.

The EFI tables are not highlighting highly elevated winds this week. That being said, Wednesday is looking like the next day where the winds could be higher. Winds around the area tonight through tomorrow night will be around 5 to 10 mph, not too bad. Wednesday is when the area will see a change from these lighter winds. Winds will swing to the northwest and pick up speeds to around 10 to 20 mph, gusts upwards of 30 mph. Thursday will be similar. Wind speeds like this aren't bad for what we are used to but it's a change from what we'll experience through Tuesday night. So just something to keep in mind, that wind speeds will be a touch higher Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will be on the rise this week as well. Overnight lows will be stuck in the upper 20s to low 30s through Thursday night. Afternoon highs will warm much more quickly. Tomorrow's (Tuesday) highs will be in the 40s to near 50 but Wednesday and Thursday will be much warmer with highs in the 50s to near 60. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be warmer still with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 511 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Upper level trough will support rain and snow today across the FA, with the best chance for precip and lower flight conds south of I90 in SD. Expect MVFR-IFR conds across the southeast half through morning with IFR conds where snow develops. Otherwise, expect sct showers this afternoon with mainly VFR conds. An isolated TS or two will be possible across the western third. VFR conds expected most places tonight, although patchy fog will be possible.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.