textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Less coverage of fog and low clouds tonight into Sunday morning compared to recent days, but patchy development still possible.

- Mild and dry conditions through early next week, breezy at times.

- The second half of next week will see a pattern change; rain and snow showers possible as early as Tuesday night and Wednesday, but better chances starting Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 213 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

A decent consensus of models and guidance sources lean away from another round of fog and low stratus development tonight into Sunday morning despite RH values forecast to again reach 90-100 percent across the region (not to mention continuity from recent days which have featured fog and stratus issues). That seems a bit "juicy" to leave patchy fog out of the forecast completely amid an only slightly drier overall environment/no significant airmass change. Granted, the lower atmosphere across especially our South Dakota plains may remain a bit more mixed/less stable tonight with slightly breezy conditions in place, but winds should remain more calm across our northwestern South Dakota plains as well as just west of the Black Hills, and these areas are exactly where we do see hints of fog/low stratus potential reflected in NBM and HRRR guidance. Thus, have added a mention of just patchy fog to these areas along with some limited cloud cover. We'll have to monitor trends to see if other portions of the CWA become more favored for development as well. Burn-off of anything that does develop will likely be more progressive Sunday morning compared to today.

Otherwise, the forecast over the next few days leans mild, dry, and continued slightly breezy for some areas as the central US remains mostly dominated by longwave ridging, with longwave troughing residing along the Pacific coast. Several shortwave pieces of energy attempt to break off/eject inland over the course of the next week. The first of any consequence comes through Tuesday night and Wednesday with some potential for rain and snow showers, but local QPF amounts currently look quite light with this. Our temperatures will take a hit though, with highs in the 50s/60s Tuesday only reaching the 40s/50s starting Wednesday. A much more significant inland-ejection of the coastal trough comes Friday into next weekend with a better chance of more widespread precipitation (and a continued cooling of temperatures...think increasing chance of snow), although forecast confidence in QPF details remains low at this early juncture. Early WPC and model- blend QPF projections are currently jumping around a bit. This feature could weaken as it crosses the Rockies, with 500mb height cluster analysis EOF patterns pointing at strength/amplitude being the primary driver of forecast uncertainty at this time (compared to exact timing for our area, although that could eventually change too). All-in, if you're looking for warmer temperatures and low-impact weather for anything outdoors, today through about Tuesday will be your best window, with Wednesday and Thursday potentially okay too but cooler.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 1055 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

MVFR conditions will continue in western South Dakota for the start of the forecast period. The low ceilings are expected to lift this afternoon and conditions will return to VFR. Winds are gusty out of the south with max gusts of 40kts possible. Winds will begin to decrease for Wyoming and Western South Dakota overnight.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.