textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog and low clouds late tonight into Thursday morning across western SD.

- Mild and dry into next week, breezy at times.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Upper air analysis shows upper ridging over the western third of the CONUS, with northwest flow continuing across the northern Plains. Surface analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary sitting roughly near the eastern CWA border. Temperatures across the NE WY/Wrn SD plains have reached into the lower 60s accompanied by NW winds gusting up to 25 mph. Quiet weather will extend into tonight as winds weaken and lows drop into the upper 20s to upper 30s. Models show the stalled front becoming a backdoor cold front as it slides westward late tonight into Thursday morning. Easterly winds will favor upslope flow, resulting in low clouds. Fog is also expected along with the low clouds, especially across NW SD. There is more uncertainty with the latest CAMs as to how far south or widespread the fog will be, but current thinking is it will at least affect the eastern Black Hills and adjacent plains. Fog should diminish by late Thursday morning, though low clouds may persist longer across northwestern to central SD. Winds will become southeasterly along and behind the front. Thursday highs will range from near 70F in NE WY west of the boundary to the mid 40s near the eastern CWA border. Upper ridging slowly moves eastward Thursday night into Friday. Not much change with the temps on Friday as the boundary remains stalled over the area, though some moderation is expected on both sides of the front. A weak trough is projected to cross the region toward the weekend. Warmer than average temperatures across the rest of the CWA will advect into central SD as southerly flow increases. Precip from this system will stay well south as a split-flow pattern is reinforced. Dry weather and above average temperatures continue into early next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1044 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the afternoon and overnight. This afternoon, western South Dakota can expect breezy northwest winds, with gusts 20 to 30 knots. Winds will diminish this evening. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to develop east of the Black Hills for areas of fog and low ceilings starting late overnight into the early morning.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.