textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly warm and dry conditions through the week.

- Active pattern returns the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving east across South Dakota pulling this morning's showers eastward as they continue to fizzle out. 16Z surface analysis depicts a cold front pushing south through the SD plains into northern parts of Nebraska. Wind gusts up to 40mph are expected across the SD plains through the afternoon. Temperatures will stay in the mid/upper 70s through the week

As the aforementioned trough moves out, zonal to northwest flow will persist for the next several days. Temperatures through the week will remain seasonably in the 70s, aside for Monday and Tuesday which will jump to widespread mid 80s as minor ridging aloft moves in temporarily. Temps will then return back to normal for the remainder of next week. Tuesday looks slightly breezy with 25mph gusts over most of the area. Small shortwaves may crest the ridge through the week, but the large-scale pattern will break Sun-Mon when a large trough is forecasted to bring more active weather. Current guidance has it reaching the west coast Sat and the better forcing reaching SD later Monday morning.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued At 509 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Gusty northwest winds will continue to diminish over the next couple of hours leading to light, variable winds overnight for western South Dakota. Breezy southerly winds (~20kts) will increase over northeast Wyoming during the overnight hours, then becoming variable at the end of the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.