textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- 10-15F above normal highs Wednesday/Thursday increasing to 15-20F above normal for Friday/Saturday - Elevated fire weather conditions Thursday, near critical fire weather conditions Friday - Pattern change early next week will bring much cooler weather with some chances for precip

UPDATE

Issued at 1003 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

04z surface analysis had weak "cool" front from MT into southeast SD, through most of the CWA. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the northern Rockies with northwest flow aloft carrying some cirrus through the northern Plains.

Mild weather is expected Wednesday/Thursday as well-defined low level thermal ridge pushes highs 10-15F above normal, in line with mid/upper range of guidance. Upper ridge shifts into the northern Plains Friday/Saturday as upper trough develops over the northwest CONUS. This will expand thermal ridge into the CWA bringing 15-20F above normal temperatures. Cold front drops in Saturday night/Sunday with much cooler temperatures persisting into next week. Frontal boundary will hangup near the CWA as upper trough develops over the Rockies producing southwest flow aloft early next week. Deeper upper trough for mid-week. Ensemble spreads distinctly show the various solutions give 20-30F lower temperatures, but with 10-20F daily spreads leading to lower confidence temperature forecast. Eventually, moisture aggregates near the CWA as synoptic lifts brings PoPs. Might even be cold enough for some snow higher up, but too soon to prognosticate much given ensemble differences.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 102 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies over the area. Conditions like this will continue for the next several days.

Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for early October through the next couple of days. But we'll really feel the warmth on Friday and Saturday with highs likely reaching the 80s to low 90s again.

Then a pattern change later this weekend will swing temps in the other direction. Highs on the Sunday will range from the 50s in NE WY and NW SD to the upper 60s to low 70s in south-central SD. Beyond that, highs generally in the 50s are expected. Overnight lows will take a dip as well, going from the 40s and 50s to the 30s and 40s early next week.

As the weather pattern changes, precip chances will increase beginning Saturday night, lasting into next week. And with the much colder air from the north, snow is a possibility. That being said, if snow does happen, it would most likely be at night and in the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Maybe a few flakes mixed in with the rain in the plains. So for now, expect mainly rain and be pleasantly (or unpleasantly, depending on your opinion of winter) surprised if you see snow.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1053 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1003 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected over northeastern Wyoming Thursday per MinRH 15-20%, but wind speeds will be on the lighter side. Near critical fire weather conditions may occur Friday over the southwestern reaches of the CWA per MinRH 10-20% and potential for deeply mixed boundary layer to produce gusty west/southwest winds.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.