textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong, gusty winds today with some snow and localized blowing snow - Frontal boundary will oscillate over the region next week as a series of clippers bring gusty winds, fluctuating temperatures, and some snow at times - Increasing confidence in an arctic air mass toward the end of the week

DISCUSSION

(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 215 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

09z surface analysis had low over northeastern ND with warm front into western KS, cold front into northern WY, and secondary cold front across southern AB/SK. ~50kt wind gusts common over northwest SD per fronts and squeeze zone northeast of the Black Hills. Latest short term guidance depicts 40-60kt in the lowest 2km over northwest SD, which matches latest KUDX VWP. Water vapour loop had first shortwave over the eastern Dakotas with secondary disturbance over AB/SK. Best lift east of CWA, which is ahead of warm front/first shortwave. Some lower clouds behind first cold front per nighttime physics RGB. These features will be the main short term forecast concern.

Today, AB/SK shortwave races southeast driving secondary cold front into the CWA later this morning/early afternoon. Best isallobaric forcing will be northeast of the CWA, but will still have 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises. Renewed low level cold air advection combined with subsidence behind cold front will support strong, gusty winds. Almost all guidance slackens the gradient/0-2km forecast wind profiles by afternoon, so probably won't see an uptick in peak gusts, but just a continuation (NBM 50-80% chance >50kt gusts over northwest SD). Current wind headlines look good. QG-forcing/weak frontogenesis associated with secondary shortwave will do it's best trying to tap into limited moisture, so expect some light snow, particularly for the northern Black Hills per Froude>1/0-2km RH 80-90%. 1-3" possible. Any snow that falls with the gusty winds will create localized blowing snow at times and this will continue to be highlighted in the high wind products. Temperatures will trend downward behind secondary cold front, so most folks will see highs this morning.

Diminishing winds tonight with chilly temperatures resulting in wind chills from zero to 20 below zero.

Next week, a series of clippers will race across the northern plains under north/northwest flow aloft. Each wave will create low pressure along antecedent low level baroclinic zone/frontal boundary with gusty winds/light snow at times. Next headlineable wind event may occur Tuesday. Toward the end of the week, ensemble guidance is coming into focus with decreasing temperature spreads and an arctic air intrusion Friday through Sunday. If these trends continue, current forecast temperatures will be too high, especially if we get some snowcover, which is completely in the realm of possibilities with a >50% chance of >0.1" QPF.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 1033 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

A front crossing the region tonight and Sunday will bring gusty northwest winds to much of the western SD plains through most of the forecast period. Gusts of 50kt or higher are expected. Snow showers and areas of blowing snow through the period will bring localized MVFR/IFR conditions.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning until 4 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ001-002- 012-013-026-031-072-073-078. Wind Advisory until 4 PM MST /5 PM CST/ this afternoon for SDZ014-025-027-030-032-042>044-046-047-049-074>077. High Wind Warning from 6 AM this morning to 4 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ041. WY...None.