textproduct: Rapid City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant conditions through the week

- Warm and dry on Monday and Tuesday

- Next active pattern comes early next week

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 156 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

18Z surface analysis shows high pressure building in the northern Great Plains behind yesterday's cold front. This combined with visible satellite imagery shows clear skies today. Ongoing ridging over the western CONUS and Rocky Mountains is supporting light rising heights across the northern plains, keeping clouds minimal for the next few days. Winds will be lighter than yesterday, but still breezy with 15-20kt gusts expected across most of the area.

Monday will be warm, with widespread high temperatures in the upper 80s. West flow out of Wyoming will support a downsloping regime on the eastern side of the Black Hills that may push temperatures up past 90. NBM 75th percentile shows most areas in western South Dakota and south of I90 reaching 90 Monday afternoon. Deep mixing will dry out relative humidities as well, keeping them around 20 percent in western South Dakota and the teens in far northeastern Wyoming. Winds should remain between 10-15 mph for this same area so will forgo a Red Flag Warning at this point. A low pressure system currently spinning up in Canada will drape a weak frontal boundary through the area Monday night. This will cap temperatures in the mid 80s on Tuesday.

Looking toward the rest of the week, temperatures stay seasonal in the 70s and northwest upper flow will keep skies mostly clear. Pattern change arrives next weekend as both GFS and Euro have a large trough crossing the Rockies. Guidance is showing a robust system impacting the northern plains the first half of next week. This will be our next chance of meaningful precipitation and will carry a transition to cooler weather.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 511 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.

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