textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

-Cool front settles in the area overnight with much cooler weather for Monday

-Mild on Tuesday with another cold front bringing gusty winds Wednesday

UPDATE

Issued at 1005 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Northwest flow continues aloft, with surface high pressure building into the the Dakotas behind a backdoor cold front now pushing across the western SD plains. Surface obs show NE winds behind the frontal boundary, and temps across NW SD have dropped into the 30s and nearing the 20s. KUDX radar shows returns across SCentral SD, but surface obs and webcams confirm its virga at this point. However, precip could begin reaching the ground overnight into Monday as rain or snow. Very little QPF is expected. With NE winds, expecting upslope enhanced low clouds develop across the northern/eastern Black Hills, which could lead to areas of fog late tonight through Monday morning. Have expanded coverage across the higher terrain. Warmer temps are expected Tue as weak ridging build ahead of a clipper system cross the northern Rockies. The clipper is expected to cross ND on late Tue/Wed, bringing a strong/fast moving cold front early Wed morning. Gusts behind the front could reach 45-55 mph. Could also see rain/snow across NE WY, the northern Black Hills, and NW SD...but QPF will again be light.

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Saturday) Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Western CONUS ridge will remain in place through the week as periodic ridge topping impulses advect into the Northern Plains. Backdoor cold front will slide into the area late today, cooling things down for Monday. Expect increasing clouds later tonight with some fog possible in the higher elevations of the BH later tonight. Baroclinic zone will stall over the region supporting some chances for light snow across NW SD as weak FGEN develops late tonight into Monday morning. Not expecting more than a dusting where snow materializes. After a cool cloudy day Monday, a clipper system will support much warmer weather by Tues via strong frontside WAA. Highs will reach the 50s and 60s, with a few 70s possible over the western third. Clipper system will advect over the top of the ridge Tues night into Wed supporting a strong cold front into the region Wed. Some precip is possible with this system, but any amounts will generally be light. Models are also progging adv level winds across much of NW SD Wed, with gusts over 50 mph possible. Splitting upper trough will move into the western CONUS toward the end of the week, as the ridge shifts east. This looks to support mild weather locally for the end of the week after a brief cool down Thur.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 1015 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Northeast upslope flow will lead to MVFR cigs across northwest SD and eventually most of western SD by Monday morning, lasting into the early afternoon. Local IFR conditions are possible around the Black Hills. Some light snow will be possible across NW SD Monday morning, with local vis restrictions possible.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.