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KEY MESSAGES

- Cold tonight, especially northwestern SD where a freeze warning is in effect. Colder air overnight Thursday with widespread freezing temperatures.

- Precipitation chances overnight through Wednesday; heaviest amounts along NE/SD border.

- Breezy Thursday with Wind Advisory (45+ mph gusts) winds possible (~55%).

- Above average temperatures return for the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1005 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Little change to the overall forecast. Precipitation moves into the region Wednesday morning as surface low over northern CO treks northeast. Tweaked the overnight temperatures slightly warmer given the cloud cover that's expected to linger overnight. Still should see temperatures in northwestern SD drop to at or just below freezing. Freeze warning remains in effect for Harding, Perkins, and Ziebach counties through Wednesday morning. Expect precipitation to linger through Wednesday, with the higher QPF amounts expected south of I-90.

Have continued the trend of lowering post-frontal winds for Thursday, with the NBM continuing to run high (max gusts 60mph+). Latest high-res guidance continues to keep max gusts more in the 40 to 50 mph range Thursday.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 107 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Water vapor imagery highlights a closed low centered in southern NV. Further upstream, a strong vort max is located just off the BC coastline with upper level moisture streaming into western Canada. Surface high pressure has settled across eastern MT/western ND with temperatures across the forecast area in the 40s. Low clouds will linger through the afternoon, limiting high temperature potential to the mid to upper 40s for most of the area and low to mid 50s across southern SD. Temperatures are forecast to fall below freezing across portions of Harding, Perkins, and Ziebach counties, particularly closer to the SD/ND border; have issued a Freeze Warning for these counties. Cloud cover may be a limiting factor, however, enough clearing is expected across this area for temperatures to bottom out. South of the warned area, cloud cover is expected to keep temperatures above freezing and limit the potential of frost development.

Chances for precipitation increase Wednesday morning into Thursday as the closed low ejects into the Central Plains. Most of the rain will be confined to areas along and south of I-90 where 0.5-0.75"+ of rain possible for southern Campbell/Weston counties in WY and areas along the SD/NE border.

The northern stream wave that is currently located off the BC coast will swing through southern Canada into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday with a cold front to push through Thursday. As has been the case for a few days, considerable spread remains among deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the ultimate strength of the winds behind the front. The strongest core of 850-750 mb winds are forecast to remain displaced to our north and east, coinciding with the greatest cold air advection. Forecast soundings highlight potential for Wind Advisory level winds (wind gusts > 45 mph) across northwestern SD through the western SD plains Thursday afternoon. Overall forecast confidence remains low, however. The NBM continues to forecast High Wind strength winds(gusts > 60 mph), which seem overdone and unlikely given the ingredients that will be in place.

Clearing skies and cold air behind the front will result in widespread sub-freezing to freezing temperatures across the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. Much warmer this weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s as upper ridging builds over the western half of the US.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued At 507 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

MVFR to local IFR conds INVOF of the southern Black Hills will linger this morning ahead of an approaching upper trough. Rain will slowly spread northeast into the area through the day, starting in NE WY and far SW SD, then shifting east overnight. MVFR to local IFR conds can be expected across the southern third later today and tonight, lowest over the southern Black Hills. Conds will remain VFR to the north. Winds will shift NW behind a cold front early Thur, with gusty NW winds developing later Thur morning.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for SDZ001-002-014- 078. WY...None.