textproduct: Rapid City

KEY MESSAGES

- Drying out today and tomorrow

- Turning breezy Monday. A High Wind Watch has been issued for Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 65 mph expected

- Turning colder and unsettled from Wednesday through the end of week. Periods of light snow likely

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 1241 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Rest of today... After a cold and foggy morning, dry air has advected into the region and has quickly eroded the low clouds and fog allowing for ample sunshine to begin climbing this afternoon. Expect mostly clear skies to prevail for the rest of the day. Dry conditions will continue into Monday with breezy conditions developing during the afternoons. These winds may approach advisory level criteria at times, but not expecting to issue any highlights given the High Wind Watch is currently in affect for the stronger event on Tuesday.

Confidence has increased enough that a High Wind Watch has been issued for much of western SD and the central SD Plains. Minor changes with the evolution of the deepening low pressure system progged to move SE across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Latest models now have this low getting caught up with another area of low pressure across the north central portions of Canada and developing a double barrel low pattern, with the southern closed low being what impacts western SD. This has elongated the belt of 850mb winds and has slowed down the speed of this system. This means that while the 850mb winds have decreased slightly, the duration of the winds across the area has increased. Event with the slight weakening of the winds models still depict winds around 50 knots right off the surface and with strong CAA still expected in rapidly increasing heights, we are still expecting the development of widespread wind gusts exceeding 58 mph, thus the High Wind Watch has been issued for Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

Wednesday through the rest of week, models begin to diverge regarding the overall pattern setup across the region. While both solutions favor keeping daily chances for precipitation across the area, how impactful and how much snow will fall remains the big question going forward.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 944 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-030>032-042-043-046-049-072>074- 077-078. WY...None.