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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

-Warm and breezy this week with critical to near critical fire weather conditions at times

-Cooler late this weekend/early next week with some low chances for showers

DISCUSSION

(This Afternoon Through Sunday) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Western CONUS ridge will remain in place most of this week, supporting warm and dry weather. Ridge topping impulses will support weak cool fronts at times, with little to no precip with each system. Upper trough currently traversing the southern Canadian prairie provinces, with an associated trailing cool front. Ahead of the front, temps will rise into the 80s and low 90s under breezy SSW flow. Cool front will support breezy NW winds for a period into this evening. There is also a very small chance for sfc based convection ahead of the front, particularly across scentral SD where deeply mixed profiles with sufficient moisture will be in place. However, given such low probs, left things dry there this afternoon. Did add some low pops for jet streak induced high based showers late this evening into the overnight hours. High centered moisture, weak elevated instability, and entrance region jet streak forcing will be enough to support a few very high based isolated showers across the southern half of the FA. Cooler Tues with breezy northerly winds. Things warm back up Wed ahead of the next impulse with 80s and 90s expected. Expect breezy SE winds ahead of the SFC trough. Cool front will move through Thur with gusty NW winds expected. Thur's high temps will hinge on frontal timing, with a faster fropa leading toward cooler temps, esp in the west. There could also be an isolated shower or thunderstorm Wed night into Thur with the front across the far NW, however those chances remain quite low attm. Yet another impulse expected Fri-Sat with a near repeat of Wed-Thur. However, a much stronger cold front is expected with this system, leading to much cooler temps by Sunday as well as slightly better (albeit still low) chances for showers.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 531 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with north/northwesterly winds, gusting to 25-30kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1140 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Warm, dry and, breezy conds with receptive fuels will continue to support red flag conds this afternoon across western SD. Cool front will move through this afternoon/evening and support a period of breezy NW winds with rising RH. Cooler Tues with continued breezy northerly winds. RH's will be a little higher Tues, supporting elevated to near critical fire weather conds for much of the western SD Plains. Things will warm back up and dry out Wed, with gusty SE winds developing. This will support critical to near critical fire weather conds where sufficient green up has not occurred with additional fire weather headlines likely. With the dry and breezy pattern expected to persist into Saturday, critical to near critical fire weather conditions can be expected in this period for areas lacking normal May green up. A strong cool front will bring higher RH and some chances for showers early next, with a pause in critical fire weather conditions.

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