textproduct: NWS Tucson Arizona
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will continue to move across the area today bringing rain and mountain snow showers, cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. Dry conditions for most of the new work week with temperatures remaining below normal.
DISCUSSION
As most of the country dealt or reeled in the changing of clocks, Southeast Arizona got the change of weather this morning: rain and mountain snow! A pleasant welcome from the preceding hot month during the fall season.
The 12 PM radar shows the cold front moving eastward with light to moderate rain showers in Southeast Pinal County to the western edge of Tucson metro. Rainfall amounts have been few tenths to 0.4 inches with a section of the area, Picture Rocks to Oracle, receiving upwards to 0.87 inches. There was a pocket of heavier rain showers along the front edge. The Sky Islands have started to accumulate snow on the peaks and anything above 7,000 feet. The cameras suggest a dusting to an inch or two, difficult to ascertain on the amounts. The CAMS continue to show the line of showers to continue to move through the region for the remainder of the day. The cold front is moving a little slower than expected and bringing better opportunities for higher amounts of rain and even mountain snow. The forecasted rainfall amounts did go up a little than the previous forecast package; roughly 0.1 to 0.2 inches. Snow amounts will go up a little as well, but mainly on the tippy tops due to better orographic orientation and moisture advection. There is a non-zero chance for a thunderstorm to form which can briefly boost rainfall amounts in lower locations and thus giving a more snow on the mountain tops. The Winter Weather Advisory still stands valid today through tomorrow morning for elevations above 8,000 feet in the White Mountains, Mt. Lemmon, Mt. Graham, and the Chiricahua Mountains.
The rain showers and mountain showers will be on and off throughout the day as the front continues to move eastward. Breezy conditions can be expected with the cold front. Once the front exits the region, expected to be around later tonight, it bring colder temperatures by Monday morning. Freezing temperatures for the locations east of Tucson and south near the International Border. Then, it will be dry with a small warming trend but overall temperatures will be below seasonal normal.
By late Wednesday night to Thursday, the ensemble models depict a weather system dropping in from the north. Very good agreement with the all of the ensemble members on this system. It lacks the moisture due to the inland trajectory versus coming from the Pacific Ocean. Thus, it will be mainly dry with exception for ~30% chances for precipitation in the White Mountains. Overall, breezy and colder temperatures. The ensembles show the temperatures trend staying slightly below to near seasonal normal through at least the weekend.
AVIATION
Valid through 05/00Z.
A cold front will cross southeastern Arizona through tonight and bring showers, lower ceilings, and obscured visibilities. In areas of heavier SHRA, MVFR ceilings and visibilities to 3 miles are possible. Overall ceilings should be in the 4k to 7k foot range. Front should cross KTUS around 03/20Z to 03/22Z, KOLS 03/22Z to 04/00Z, KDUG 04/01Z to 04/03Z. Lower ceilings may linger behind front into late tonight. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers possible behind front during the evening and overnight hours. Confidence in timing and location of these late showers a bit too low to include at any specific TAF for now. Surface winds turn from southwest to west-northwest with the frontal passage. Sustained winds of 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts through 04/01Z, then 8-15 kts through tonight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
A weather system will move across the area today and tonight and be east of the area on Monday. This system brings a good chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers to the area. Cooler temperatures will follow with this weather system. Drier conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday with drier weather system approaching the area later in the week. This later system will bring breezes and cooler temperatures into the weekend.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for AZZ510-511-514.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Monday for AZZ512.
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