textproduct: NWS Tucson Arizona

SYNOPSIS

Dry and warm weather continues, with potentially record breaking high temperatures at some locales into early next week. A Pacific system approaches by middle to late next week, with the chance of a few showers and slightly cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Mostly clear skies this morning with some cirroform clouds spilling over the top of the ridge aloft that is centered near 28N/122W. This ridge will be the main feature for our weather into early next week as it remains centered to our south with anomalously high heights and thicknesses continuing into early next week across our forecast area. This will result in high temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above normal with daily records in jeopardy at many locales. Skies will generally remain mostly clear through Monday with some periods of cirrus clouds.

We'll start to see a change in the weather pattern by mid to late next week as the aforementioned ridge shifts to the east opening up a deeper southerly flow across our area as longwave troughiness will be dominant across the west coast and eastern Pacific. Ensembles and deterministic models are latching onto a couple of potential disturbances brushing the region between late Tuesday and Thursday that may yield a few showers. PoPs remain low at this time due to uncertainty and timing but for now the more impactful weather looks to stay off to our north and west. Temperatures will cool off mid to late next week by about 5 to 10 degrees but still remaining well above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION

Valid through 20/12Z. Mainly SKC-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through the valid period. Surface winds under 10 kts and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and dry conditions continue into early next week. Highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal through monday with modest cooling mid to late next week. Minimum relative humidity values of 12-22 percent each day through early next week. 20-foot winds less than 15 mph and terrain driven. A Pacific system approaches the middle of next week, increasing humidity values to 25 to 40 percent and bring slight chances for showers starting Tuesday night.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.