textproduct: NWS Tucson Arizona

SYNOPSIS

A dry forecast is in place into the middle of next week. Temperatures remain around normal through the weekend before rising several degrees above normal next week resulting in moderate to major HeatRisk.

DISCUSSION

Broad high pressure exits over the Southwest and northwest Mexico with the main storm track staying to the north over the next week. Through the weekend the high stays centered over Sonora leading to temperatures around normal or a degree or two above normal. Early in the week to mid-week ensembles show the high moving a little further north over southeast Arizona or southern New Mexico, which will increase temperatures. Expect highs during the work week to be 4-8 degrees above normal with Tucson NBM probabilities of 105 or greater at 50-85 percent. This will lead to areas of Major HeatRisk in the Tucson metro area and lower elevations of Graham and Greenlee Counties. Elsewhere HEatRisk will be moderate. Winds will be gusty out of the west/northwest each afternoon due to daytime momentum transfer with the strongest winds expected in Graham and Greenlee Counties. Expect elevated fire weather conditions each afternoon in the Gila River Valley.

Also, depending on where exactly the center of the high sets up early next week moisture could make its way into parts of southeast Arizona Tuesday into Wednesday. Deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro show the high center east of the CWA in southern New Mexico. This would put southeast Arizona under southerly mid-level flow, which could allow some moisture to advect in. Not expecting much storm activity if the moisture does make it into southeast Arizona, but the NBM does have slight chance PoPs along the international border and White Mountains Wednesday and Thursday. However its looking like this moisture intrusion would be short-lived. The ridge gets pushed south again as a trough enters the Pacific Northwest late in the week into the weekend putting southeast Arizona under dry westerly flow again.

AVIATION

Valid through 21/12Z. SKC through the period for most locations with the exception being southeast Cochise County, which could see FEW clouds 10k-14k ft AGL this afternoon. Surface winds west to southwest at 8-16 kts with gusts to 20 kts, stronger at KSAD with northwest winds and gusts to 25 kts. Winds will start tapering off after 21/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

Winds will remain west/northwest through this week with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 25 mph across much of the area with stronger speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph in lower elevations of Graham county. Fire weather conditions will be elevated most afternoons in the Gila River Valley. A drying trend will occur in the coming days as minimum relative humidity values fall to 5 to 15 percent in the valleys and 10 to 20 percent in the mountains by this weekend. No storms in the forecast with dry conditions expected through next week with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday where there is a slight chance for storms over the international border and the White Mountains.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.