textproduct: NWS Tucson Arizona

SYNOPSIS

A weather system will track across Southeast Arizona today bringing breezy winds and a slight chance of precip north of Tucson. Another weather system will then move in behind this first system, resulting in a slightly better chance of light precipitation Friday and Saturday. Thereafter, a strong ridge of high pressure will move into the area. This will bring a significant warm-up in afternoon temperatures begining this weekend and persisting through next week.

DISCUSSION

Water vapor imagery shows longwave troughing over the western half of the U.S and a large ridge upstream over the eastern Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska. This general pattern will stay in place through the end of the work week, then the ridge moves inland pushing the trough eastward. A few vort maxes move through the southern periphery of the trough over the next few days. The first moves through today, traveling through north/central Arizona. Because of this trajectory precip chances stay mostly north of the CWA. HREF members show shower activity staying mainly in Maricopa and Gila Counties with maybe a shower or two in far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties and Pinal County. The main impact on sensible weather here in southeast Arizona will be breezy winds and cooler temperatures. Highs will be 10-15 degrees below normal though Friday.

Thursday will be a mild and cool day with some virga around and a slight chance of rain in southern Pima County in the evening. Rain chances will begin to increase overnight Thursday into Friday morning as the longwave trough dips further south thanks to the Pacific trough beginning to move onshore. As this is happening another vort max will also be moving through Sonora lending further upper level support. Best widespread precip chances will be Friday morning into the afternoon with PoPs generally 40-60 percent. Chances extend into Saturday mainly along the AZ/NM border and the White Mountains as one last vort max moves through. However moisture won't be great, so most lower elevation areas Friday into Saturday will see less than 0.1" and up to a 0.5" of liquid in the White Mountains. Any rain for lower elevations will likely fall on Friday rather than Saturday. Snow levels will be above 7500 feet with snow totals light in the Sky Islands and up to 5 inches in the White Mountains.

Sunday into next week ridging looks to dominate the Southwest which will lead to a quick warmup. Highs this weekend will be 5-10 degrees below normal, warming to around normal Monday, then 5-10 degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Beyond Wednesday it looks like the Tucson airport could see its first 100 degree day of the year next week Friday, with the NBM giving a 25 percent chance.

AVIATION

Valid through 04/00Z. Expect SCT-BKN low clouds between 6k-10k ft AGL through the end of the period. SFC winds will be westerly 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts this afternoon and early evening. The strongest winds will be southeast of Tucson along the Arizona/New Mexico border which includes KDUG. Winds begin to decrease after 03/03Z becoming variable less than 8 knots overnight. Winds turn westerly again Thursday afternoon with speeds 8-14 knots. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

A weather system will track across Southeast Arizona today. Expect breezy west winds from Tucson eastward this afternoon, but will be significantly less than winds Tuesday. A few areas in Cochise county may briefly be near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Another weather system will then moves in behind this first system, resulting in chances for light precipitation Friday and Saturday. Thereafter, a strong ridge of high pressure will move into the area bringing with it a significant warm-up in afternoon temperatures begining this weekend and persisting through next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.