textproduct: NWS Tucson Arizona
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Near to above normal temperatures today. Dry with a warming trend into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
A shortwave trough will pass over the region to bring a slightly cooler day but overall temperatures will still be slightly above normal. Slight chances for snow showers in the White Mountains this afternoon and into the evening. A broad ridge will build over the region by the weekend. Temperatures are expected to be 6 to 15 degrees above normal by Sunday. This December is on track to be one of the hottest December months.
By early next week, there is some uncertainty on how the ridge will play out for the first half of the new week. Out of three ensemble models, the GEFS members show a sharp shortwave trough riding down the ridge axis to bring small cool down for the region. Unlike the other two ensemble models, they show a weaker and not as southward projection of the shortwave. The temperature spread of the 25-75th percentiles for Tucson is 7 degrees. In other words, it could be cool as 70F or warm as 77F by next Thursday. Still, the pattern of above normal temperatures will continue for the new year. And of course, dry.
AVIATION
Valid through 27/12Z. FEW-SCT clouds at around 20k ft AGL are moving in from the northwest becoming SCT-OVC at around 10-15k ft AGL by 26/21Z. These clouds will decrease to FEW-SCT at around 20-25k ft AGL by 27/04Z and will remain as such for the rest of the forecast period. SFC wind will be light and variable until 26/23Z increasing to 5-10 kts generally from the northwest. SFC winds become light and variable again after 26/03Z and remain so for the rest of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Winds will generally be 15 mph or less with dry conditions and above normal temperatures by the weekend. There is another weather disturbance passing today to bring slightly cooler temperatures and chances for snow showers in the White Mountains. Relative humidities will be around 15 to 20 percent for the lower elevations and 20 to 25 percent for the higher locations.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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