textproduct: NWS Tucson Arizona

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions are expected across southeast Arizona this week. High temperatures will be below normal through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

A benign weather pattern for this week across southeast Arizona. In the near term, shortwave ridging aloft continues to build into the region from the west. Still considerable moisture levels at the immediate surface and this may lead to some patchy fog this morning in the normally susceptible locations east of Tucson such as the Sulphur Springs Valley. Any fog will quickly burn off this morning with abundant sunshine thereafter for the entire forecast area and daytime highs about 5 to 8 degrees below normal.

A couple of weak systems will pass well to our north Wednesday and Thursday with dry westerly flow dominating our weather with just some high clouds from time to time. Thereafter, the flow pattern becomes more dominated by broad baggy troughing Friday into the weekend over our forecast area. There are some differences in the exact evolution of this pattern in the ensembles by Sunday/Monday with the GEFS showing more established troughing to our southwest along the Baja peninsula while the EPS/GEPS are much more muted with any troughing. Will maintain dry forecast through this period as temperatures remain about 5 degrees below normal.

AVIATION

Valid through 04/12Z. Mainly SKC conditions thru the forecast period. Can't rule out patchy fog thru 03/15Z for KOLS/KDUG but confidence too low to include in TAFs. SFC wind 12 kts or less at most locations thru the forecast period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the late afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected across southeast Arizona this week. High temperatures will be below normal and 20- foot winds will be less than 15 mph through the upcoming weekend. Minimum RH values in the valleys will be in the 35-50 percent this week (and higher in the mountains).

HYDROLOGY

Rainfall from Friday into early Monday led to rises on most rivers and creeks across southeast Arizona. While most levels are slowly receding, there continues to be a couple of areas of concern. Those include: 1) the Vamori Wash in central Pima County, 2) the Santa Cruz River and Greene Wash in northern Pima County/southern Pinal County, and 3) the Gila River at Solomon. Flood Warnings and/or Flood Advisories are currently in effect for those areas. Additionally, we will continue to monitor for additional rises today in the Gila River in Greenlee County as higher flows work their way downstream from New Mexico.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.