textproduct: NWS Tucson Arizona

SYNOPSIS

A historic March heat wave will continue through the weekend, with record high temperatures. Visitors and people not typically accustomed to extreme heat are urged to take precautions during the hottest hours of the day and to limit outdoor activities. While high temperatures lower several degrees next week, highs will still be 15 to 20 degrees above normal and daily record high readings are expected.

DISCUSSION

Strong high pressure aloft will remain centered over the state today and then begin to weaken and shift southeast into northern Mexico on Sunday. High temperatures will remain hot, especially for March, and an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 8 PM MST Sunday. High temperatures will be 20-25 degrees above normal through Sunday, with record high temperatures expected across southeast Arizona.

The ridge will flatten early next week, as a series of storm systems move across the northern tier of states. However, well above normal heights/thicknesses persist across the desert southwest. Highs will lower several degrees, but will still be 15-20 degrees above normal. Daily record high temperatures are likely each day through the end of next week.

The models show the upper ridge becoming highly amplified late next week into next weekend across the western United States. This will allow for some mid level moisture to move into the area from the east/southeast. At this time, there are slight chance POPs in the Saturday time frame across far eastern areas of southeast Arizona. High temperatures are still around 15 degrees above normal.

The CPC 8-14 day outlooks are: Temperatures: Likely above normal (69-72%) Precipitation: Leaning above normal (40-53%)

AVIATION

Valid through 23/00Z. Clear skies thru 22/02Z, then increasing high level cirrus clouds and SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL aft 22/06Z persisting thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind WLY/NWLY at 8-13 kts with some gusts up to 20 kts thru 22/02Z and then again aft 22/19Z, and SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

An unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure will result in record setting high temperatures this weekend, with high temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal. High temperatures will lower several degrees next week, but highs will still top out 15-20 degrees above normal. Very dry conditions will continue through next week, with minimum RH values at all elevations generally in the 5-12 percent range. 20-foot winds will generally be 10-15 mph with some afternoon gusts to 20-25 mph through Wednesday of next week, except on Sunday to the east of Tucson where winds will be 15-20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>509.