textproduct: NWS Tucson Arizona

SYNOPSIS

Expect mild temperatures today with highs nearly 10 degrees below normal. Winds will be much lighter as well. A warming trend is expected through the remainder of the week with well above normal temperatures expected by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Cyclonic flow persists over southeastern Arizona today in the aftermath of the Pacific trough crossing yesterday. A shortwave circulation that cut off from the main trough will sit over northern Baja to northern Sonora today, keeping temperatures mild over southeastern Arizona. Forecast highs today are nearly 10 degrees below normal, while winds will be much lighter than yesterday (mainly under 12 mph with a few afternoon gusts).

While the aforementioned upper level circulation lingers for a few days the main upper level pattern across the western CONUS will feature a building ridge, which will quickly be the dominant weather feature by way of increasing temperatures. Highs are expected to climb to 6-10 degrees above normal this weekend and will likely further heat up early next week. Ensemble guidance favors the positive ridge anomalies peaking Monday-Tuesday, with some flattening of the ridge through the middle of next week. This ridge peak will bring desert highs from 95 to over 100 degrees, with probabilities of exceeding 100 degrees at the Tucson airport 25 percent Sunday, 75 percent Monday, and 60 percent Tuesday (with greater probabilities within town).

AVIATION

Valid through 07/12Z.

SKC through the forecast period with surface winds generally under 12 kts. Wind direction west-northwest 06/19Z to 02/20Z, otherwise terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

Below normal temperatures again today with far lighter winds than Tuesday. Winds this afternoon west-northwest and mainly under 12 mph, otherwise terrain driven this morning and tonight. Minimum relative humidities mainly above 15 percent across desert locations and above 20 percent in the mountains. Further drying is expected through the week as temperatures heat up as well. Winds remain generally light each day with minimum relative humidities falling into the single digits and below 15 percent in the mountains by the weekend.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.