textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall, downburst winds, and lightning will be the primary hazards.

- Humid conditions will return by the end of this week with heat indices reaching 95-100 F across the area by Saturday and continuing through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 420 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon near a weakening mid-level frontal zone stretching from north central into southeast OK. The overall trend should be a general decrease in coverage through the rest of the evening with some spreading to the northeast, though given the slow movement and PWAT values of around 2 inches present through this same zone, localized rainfall amounts sufficient for flooding of low lying areas remains possible for a few more hours. Best chance of this remains generally SW of a KPNC-KDEQ line. An isolated pop-up shower or two has been noted over far northeast OK as well, but coverage will remain below mentionable levels.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tonight ) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Ongoing showers across eastern Oklahoma were associated with a weakening 700-mb boundary oriented northwest to southeast from Creek co to Le Flore co. This activity should continue to weaken through the afternoon hours as the boundary becomes less defined. Additional showers/storms were developing across south central Oklahoma associated with isentropic lift interacting with a secondary elevated boundary/instability axis. This activity is expected to expand into southeast Oklahoma through the afternoon hours. Slower storm motions combined with precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches will help to create areas of heavy rainfall with rain rates of 1-2 inches per hour. These conditions will aid in a continued flash flood threat across portions of southeast Oklahoma into this evening, especially over locations that received 1-3 inches of rainfall in Pittsburg co this morning. Weak flow aloft should continue to limit overall severe potentials through this evening.

Convection should begin to weaken/lessen in coverage through the evening hours with any lingering shower potential across far southeast Oklahoma. At the same time, a developing MCV currently in southwest Texas is forecast to lift east northeast within the mean mid layer flow tonight. In response, additional showers/storms are progged to lift toward the Red River, reaching southeast Oklahoma late tonight into Friday morning. Again, with ample amounts of moisture in place, a heavy rain threat with flash flood potential will be the main hazard tonight/Friday morning.

Ongoing cloud cover and precip will help to keep afternoon temps from reaching their full potential with highs in the 80s to near 90 deg. Overnight lows tonight should remain in the 70s for most locations.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Thursday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The MCV is forecast to lift into the region Friday with shower/storm chances spreading from southwest to northeast over the CWA. The greater storm potential is across southeast Oklahoma through the morning hours, where a continued heavy rain threat and flash flood potential exists. This disturbance looks to exit the CWA during the day Friday ahead of a shortwave moving out into the Plains Friday afternoon. The southern portion of the associated trof axis is progged to move into the region Friday night/Saturday as the shortwave lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Latest indications are for the lingering trof axis to remain over the region into Sunday before exiting Sunday night.

With the trof axis over the region and low level moisture vectors still advecting moisture into the region, shower and storm chances will remain forecast through the Holiday weekend. The greater potential looks to be over the northern half of the CWA, closer to the southern periphery of the trof axis. Through the Friday afternoon to Sunday night time frame, showers/storms are not expected to be constant with the greater chances during the daytime Saturday and Sunday. Precip coverage Friday evening/night looks to be more isolated before the boundary moves in, and in response much of the CWA at this time looks to remain dry for holiday outdoor activities.

Daytime instability is forecast to increase for the weekend while flow aloft remains marginal. Thus, an isolated severe potential could develop each afternoon Saturday and Sunday, while a locally heavy rain threat remains. Temperatures through the Holiday weekend should remain slightly below to near seasonal average.

Behind the exiting trof axis, a ridge of high pressure builds back over the Desert Southwest with the CWA on the eastern periphery of the ridge for the first half of next week. This puts the CWA under more northwesterly upper level flow, which will allow for a couple disturbances to drop through the region Monday through Wednesday. Shower and storm chances remain forecast with each of these shortwaves. At the same time, temperatures look to warm back to around the seasonal average for July with ongoing humid conditions continuing through next week. Heat index values of mid 90s to near 102 deg are forecast each day this weekend and next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

An isolated shower or two remains possible at the beginning of the forecast period, both at NW AR sites and at TUL/RVS. Direct impacts are unlikely. Otherwise will see clouds begin to increase toward sunrise Friday from southeast into northeast OK, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible mainly during the morning hours. Recent trends in guidance show a bit less coverage and as such only VCSH will be mentioned. WIth all that, prevailing conditions will remain VFR with only a very low probability (<30%) of MVFR conditions at E OK terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 71 89 73 89 / 0 20 10 30 FSM 73 92 73 93 / 10 20 10 10 MLC 71 87 71 90 / 20 40 10 20 BVO 68 88 70 89 / 0 20 10 30 FYV 69 88 69 89 / 0 20 10 10 BYV 69 89 70 91 / 0 20 10 10 MKO 70 88 71 89 / 0 20 10 20 MIO 69 89 71 89 / 0 20 10 30 F10 70 86 71 89 / 10 30 10 20 HHW 73 86 71 90 / 30 40 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.