textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 842 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Hot and humid weather continues through Monday, with afternoon heat index values near or above 100 degrees in some places.

- Cooler and less humid weather midweek following the passage of a weak cold front.

- Unsettled weather returns late week into next weekend with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 842 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Thunderstorms continue to develop over north central and central Oklahoma within a persistent zone of convergence. It is unlikely any of this will reach northeastern Oklahoma at this point this evening, as convective inhibition continues to increase across the region and much of this activity should wane next couple hours. Additional activity is developing in southeastern Kansas and is expected to organize overnight as it pushes east towards Missouri. Some CAM data suggest potential for outflow from this activity to surge southward toward northeastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas late tonight, forcing additional convection to develop closer to our CWA. Adjusted the forecast to reflect very low to low thunderstorm probabilities along the Kansas and Missouri borders after midnight, otherwise forecast trending well with another unseasonably warm night ahead under variable amounts of mostly high clouds.

69

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A hot and humid day is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Heat index values will top 100 degrees at a few spots this afternoon as temperatures warm into the lower 90s. Another mild night is expected tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain too low to mention through tonight, with the main focus for precipitation being to our north and northeast this evening and overnight.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Monday looks to be the hottest day of the forecast period, with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will again top out over 100 degrees in some places. A weak backdoor cool front will push across the area Monday night and Tuesday, and may result in an isolated storm or two in a few spots mainly Monday evening and overnight. Temperatures and dew points will both lower slightly Tuesday, with even cooler and drier air moving in by Wednesday.

An upper level storm system will approach from the west by the end of the week into next weekend bringing a return to daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures through this period will remain near the seasonal averages for early June.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Convection developing over north central through southwest Oklahoma at this time expected to move eastward this evening, and some may come close to BVO later this evening before much of that activity dissipates by late evening. Potential is too low to mention in forecast at this time. Otherwise, mainly high clouds from this activity to pass over nern OK sites tonight. Few clouds around the area Monday, with low level flow becoming northeasterly during the afternoon as a cold front moves in from the northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 95 71 90 / 10 10 20 10 FSM 73 95 72 91 / 0 10 20 10 MLC 74 95 72 93 / 0 10 10 10 BVO 71 93 67 89 / 20 10 20 10 FYV 71 92 67 88 / 10 10 10 10 BYV 70 90 67 83 / 10 10 10 0 MKO 73 94 71 91 / 0 10 20 10 MIO 72 92 69 87 / 10 10 10 10 F10 73 95 70 91 / 0 10 10 10 HHW 73 94 73 94 / 0 10 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.