textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 444 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Well above average temperatures will continue on Saturday. Record highs are expected with all-time December record highs also possible.

- Strong cold front arrives Sunday bringing a chance for showers and maybe a few storms as well. Much colder temps, more typical of late December, can be expected to start next week.

- More areas of fog possible tonight/Saturday morning, with best potential across the Lower Arkansas River Valley and far southeast Oklahoma.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday Night) Issued at 1040 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

The boundary that brought some drier, though not much cooler air into the region on Friday will wash out/retreat back north by Saturday morning in response to falling surface pressure across the High Plains. Areas of fog will once again be possible during the morning hours Saturday as moisture returns to the area while the boundary retreats and winds remain light. Will maintain higher fog coverage over portions of the Lower Arkansas River Valley and far southeast Oklahoma that have been persistent to fog over the last several mornings. Elsewhere, more patchy fog will be observed, mainly in more sheltered valley locations. Another very warm and humid day will be on tap for late December. Highs will once again approach all time December record values near 80 Saturday afternoon, though increasing high and mid cloud cover could keep temps from reaching their full potential. Southwesterly winds will also return as the pressure gradient tightens due to a deepening surface low over the Central Plains. Overnight lows on Saturday will also be very warm, mostly in the mid 60s, as winds continue to remain gusty through the night.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1040 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

A big change is still on the way for Sunday. A longwave trough digging into the western CONUS will phase with a quick moving shortwave dropping southeast out of Canada Sunday morning. This will bring a strong Arctic front into the region, approaching northeast Oklahoma by the mid morning hours Sunday. Ahead of the boundary, Sunday morning, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s, though thick cloud cover will limit warming before the arrival of the front. A strong low level jet preceding the frontal boundary will also serve to focus an area of isentropic ascent across the area Sunday morning. With the ample moisture in place, some areas of drizzle or very light showers have been added in during this timeframe to accommodate this scenario. Any precipitation amounts will be a few hundredths at most. The front is progged to arrive near the I-44 corridor by around noon. The result will be rapidly falling temperatures, likely 20-30 degrees over just a couple of hours, along with strong northerly winds with gusts near advisory level (40mph) likely across northeast Oklahoma during the afternoon.

As the front progresses southeastward into the afternoon and evening, it will interact with the warm, moist airmass in place to bring increasing shower/storm chances. Very warm mid level temperatures will inhibit much in the way of convection early in the afternoon across northeast Oklahoma. But, mid level temps should cool enough by late afternoon as the mid level trough moves closer to the local region, that at least some limited instability can develop. Therefore, a broken line of thunderstorms will become possible along the frontal zone from late afternoon through early evening across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Better synoptic forcing associated with the shortwave and better frontal convergence will remain northeast of the local region closer to the surface low over central Missouri. Thus, widespread convection and more meaningful rainfall is not forecast at this time for our area, but some locations should see some much needed rainfall Sunday afternoon and evening. Widespread severe weather is not expected, owing to the reasons mentioned above, but sufficient deep layer shear could support a more organized, stronger storm or two late in the day Sunday.

The parent trough axis will lag behind the frontal push somewhat, which could lead to some lingering light precipitation over northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Sunday night as the cold air really moves in. Thus a brief changeover to a light wintry mix or snow flurries will be possible Sunday night. Amounts look to be largely negligible and mostly non impactful in terms of travel hazards as deep layer dry air pushes in by this time. Temperatures will drop into the 20s overnight Sunday, with continued breezy northerly winds causing wind chill values to bottom out in the low to mid teens across a good chunk of northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with lower 20s expected further south.

Temperatures remain cold on Monday as most places will see highs staying in the 30s, while northerly winds become lighter during the day, easing the wind chill effect by afternoon. Monday night will be the coldest night as the Canadian surface high settles over the region and temperatures drop into the lower 20s to mid teens. Thus, Tuesday will start off cold, but temperatures look to quickly rebound as the surface high shifts southeastward and modest southwesterly downslope winds develop Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures warm back above normal for the last day of 2025 on Wednesday into the 50s. Guidance has come into better agreement on another, weaker front moving through the region on Thursday, knocking temps back a bit heading into the weekend. Outside of scattered shower/storm chances on Sunday, the forecast remains dry heading into January.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 444 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Areas of fog remain possible through mid morning for all areas, but the best chance will remain near KFSM. Mid to high clouds will thicken throughout the day, with some low clouds developing after sunset for southeast OK and northwest AR. Breezy southerly winds will develop after sunrise, continuing through the TAF period. Low level wind shear may develop overnight for many areas. Rain showers may develop Sunday morning, but likely after the current TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 64 67 25 / 0 10 20 0 FSM 80 63 73 28 / 0 10 30 20 MLC 81 65 70 28 / 0 0 30 10 BVO 77 57 64 21 / 0 10 20 0 FYV 78 63 67 22 / 0 10 30 20 BYV 77 65 69 21 / 0 10 40 20 MKO 79 65 68 26 / 0 10 20 10 MIO 75 63 66 22 / 0 10 30 10 F10 81 65 69 26 / 0 0 20 0 HHW 79 63 72 31 / 0 0 30 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.