textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Area-wide Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM Monday for northwest wind gusts 45 to 55 mph.

- Near-critical to critical fire spread rates expected through this afternoon, especially along and west of Highway 75.

- A low threat of severe thunderstorms will exist along/ahead of the front across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early this afternoon. The threat pushes east by mid afternoon.

- Light snow may mix with light rain across extreme eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this afternoon and into this evening. Very little to no snow accumulations expected.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

At 11 AM, a robust cold front was analyzed south and east of the I-44 corridor. As anticipated, very strong northwest winds have developed behind the frontal boundary, with gusts in excess of 40 mph at times. Gusts 35 to 45 mph will remain common, occasionally up to 55 mph, through the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. The main concern with these winds through the remainder of the afternoon will be the near-critical to locally critical fire weather potential/fire spread rates, especially for portions of northeast and eastern-central OK (generally west of Highway 75) where rainfall has been limited recently and relative humidity values will be lowest (30-35%) through this afternoon. Any wildfire that ignites will spread very fast. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement remains intact for northeast OK and northwest AR.

A few showers and thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of the frontal boundary late this morning. Some maturing and organization in the storms may occur over the next couple of hours as the the cold front/storms begin to exit south and east of the forecast area. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with any organized storm, potentially with gusts up to 65 mph, but small to marginally severe hail will also briefly be possible. The severe storm threat is expected to end by 3-4 PM. Overall rainfall amounts will stay light and confined to portions of far eastern OK and northwest AR, up to a couple of tenths of an inch at most. Light precipitation will wrap around the backside of the departing upper-level trough by mid afternoon. This precipitation is expected to stay limited to along and north of Highway 412 in northeast OK and far northwest AR. This band of precipitation will drift eastward along the KS/OK/MO/AR borders late this afternoon and into early this evening. Light rain may eventually mix with snow flurries by late afternoon and into this evening. Snow accumulations and winter weather impacts are not expected.

The exceptionally gusty northwest winds will slowly decrease through the evening and overnight hours, but gusts 30 to 40 mph will persist well after sunset this evening. A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM Monday, with gusts 30 to 35 mph persisting beyond the expiration of the advisory. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast late this evening and overnight tonight. Clear skies are expected to prevail for most locations by sunrise Monday morning. Winter will return tonight with bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill values. A widespread hard freeze, with overnight lows falling into the teens and 20s and wind chill values as low as the single digits and teens, will occur tonight. Any outdoor sensitive vegetation should be moved inside or covered to prevent damage.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Monday will start off bitterly cold, with temperatures in the teens and 20s (wind chills in the single digits and teens) by the morning commute. Temperature will have a difficult time recovering during the daytime, with brisk and gusty northwest winds remaining in place. Despite mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs will struggle to get out of the 40s for much of eastern OK and west-central AR and may struggle to get out of the 30s in far northwest AR and far northeast OK. With continuous gusty northwest winds and a much drier airmass in place, elevated fire weather concerns will pursue through the daytime Monday. Another widespread hard freeze will occur Monday night into Tuesday morning, with overnight low dropping into the 20s for most locations. Moisture will be slow to recover into Tuesday, and once again elevated fire weather concerns will arise by Tuesday afternoon as winds switch back out of the south and become breezy.

Precipitation will be hard to come by in the long-term period. Stagnant northwest winds aloft and a stout, summer-like ridge over the Desert Southwest will help lock-in very dry air and will make it difficult for precipitation to form or move into the region through the upcoming workweek. Temperatures will begin to climb each day, beginning on Tuesday, through next weekend with no CAA/cold fronts in the forecast at this time. Temperatures may reach the 90s for portions of the forecast area as early as Thursday, with widespread upper 80s and lower 90s by Saturday. Periodic breezy winds and dry weather will keep at least limited fire weather potential each day through the long- term period.

Mejia

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Cold front is sweeping southeast across the region and will be impacting the NW AR TAF sites in the near term. Spotty showers in the region warrants a -shra mention, with thunder chances high enough to warrant prob30 -tsra mention at all of those sites between 18Z and 20Z. After fropa, conditions should be largely VFR, though some potential for higher-end MVFR cigs is showing up late in the day and into the evening across far NW AR. Skies will eventually clear from W to E by daybreak Monday morning.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 23 44 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 25 43 24 59 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 25 45 25 62 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 18 42 20 62 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 18 39 19 54 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 20 35 19 52 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 24 42 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 20 38 19 54 / 10 0 0 0 F10 24 45 24 61 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 29 45 27 59 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019- 020-029.