textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1105 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Above normal temperatures into Wednesday before a cold front passes. Most locations remain dry through the week.

- Cooler weather late week into the weekend. Frost/freeze headlines may be needed.

- Rain chances return late in the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1105 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

The immediate issue today is lingering patchy fog evident across parts of northeast Oklahoma along the Kansas border. Observational trends in satellite and surface observations indicate a decreasing trend in both the areal coverage and the density of the fog, which is the reason for letting the previous advisory expire on time at 10 am. Will include a lingering patchy fog mention for the areas still seeing it.

An elongated upper low with a couple of different disturbances extends across southern Oklahoma westward into West Texas. The light precipitation earlier this morning in parts of southeast Oklahoma associated with the vort max in the ArkLaTex has diminished and POPs through the rest of the morning have been removed. A very low chance of redevelopment of light showers this afternoon into the evening across this same area exists as the larger vort max in West Texas approaches. Current thinking is the bulk of the measurable precipitation will remain south of the Red River, with dry weather forecast in southeast Oklahoma.

Temperatures both this afternoon and overnight will be noticeably above seasonal normals.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1105 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A cold front remains on track to move through the area tomorrow, bringing a period of below normal temperatures and for Wednesday, gusty northerly winds. A dry cold frontal passage remains expected. The gusty winds and drop in dew points on Wednesday behind the front will bring a period of limited fire spread conditions, particularly to parts of northeast Oklahoma. Winds will pick up to some extent once again on Thursday afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas but the corresponding fire spread concerns currently appears below that of Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will nose into the area Thursday night into Friday, dropping Friday morning lows into the low to mid 30s across a good portion of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will not include frost in the forecast for now, but given the forecast humidities and winds, this will likely be needed. Frost/Freeze headlines should be expected as well. The chilly temperatures will extend into Friday and Friday night, with another round of Frost/Freeze headlines possible into Saturday morning.

The surface high will shift east of the area on Saturday, with southerly winds and warmer temperatures returning. An upper level trough remains on track to move through the region Sunday, possibly extending into early Monday, bringing the next chance of rain to the area. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will follow the departure of the trough Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Few to scattered mid and high clouds are anticipated into the overnight hours for the CWA while an area of low pressure continues to move eastward through Texas. To the north, a cold front will approach the region tonight, move into northeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning, and then clear the CWA Wednesday afternoon. Before the front arrives, light winds along with increased dewpoints from today could create a window for fog development over parts of northeast Oklahoma. Will continue with a Tempo group at KBVO for general timing. Behind the frontal passage, breezy west to northwesterly winds and mostly clear conditions are forecast through the end of the TAF period. Overall, the boundary is progged to move through dry. Other than a window for IFR/MVFR conditions in northeast Oklahoma late tonight, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 54 72 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 56 74 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 56 74 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 49 71 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 53 68 40 59 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 55 68 42 57 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 55 71 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 53 69 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 F10 56 72 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 58 79 47 71 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.