textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Limited potential for fog development late tonight into early Monday morning far northwest Arkansas.

- Fall-like temperatures early this week trend unseasonably warm by mid to late week.

- Rain is not expected through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Low level northerly flow was transporting surface high pressure and a drier airmass into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Sunday early afternoon. In response, low level cloud cover across the CWA will continue to scatter out with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies anticipated late afternoon. Afternoon temperatures of mid 70s to low 80s are forecast.

Overnight tonight, with surface high pressure over the region, mostly clear skies and light winds become common for the CWA. These conditions will help radiational cooling as lows fall into the 50s for most locations. Limited potential for reduced visibility/fog development exists late tonight into early Monday morning for the normal cool valley locations. At this time though, confidence in coverage remains low due to the drier air moving into the region. Thus, will hold off on mentioning it in the forecast and note its potential here.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Surface high pressure remains over the region Monday and then begins to move off to the east Tuesday. At the same time, a ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest is progged to expand eastward across the southern Plains through mid week. This ridge broadens out/flattens for the second half of the week with low level flow becoming more southerly. Temperatures respond with upper 70s/lower 80s for highs through Tuesday, and then begin a slow warming trend through late week. Low temperatures through Tuesday morning look to be in the 50s, and then also begin a warming trend. The coolest morning is currently forecast for Tuesday with potential of the normal cool valley locations of far northwest Arkansas briefly touching upper 40s.

Latest model solutions continue to highlight an area of low pressure lifting northeast through the eastern half of the region over the weekend. Details at this time remain uncertain, though the potential for rain showers could return next weekend. This will continue to be monitored through the week as latest data come in.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period, with the exception of possibly KFYV. A weak and dry cold front will push through today, helping keep surface winds out of the N/NE as well as help clear out mid and high clouds by early this evening. Winds calm after sunset and radiational cooling is expected to occur. Latest guidance is not very optimistic with fog development tonight, but given KFYV was socked in with dense fog this morning, will go ahead and include a broad TEMPO group after midnight for reduced vsbys down to about a mile through sunrise. Surface winds will veer out of the east by mid-late Monday morning.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 82 57 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 83 59 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 81 57 81 54 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 81 53 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 81 53 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 80 54 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 81 57 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 79 54 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 F10 80 56 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 81 60 82 55 / 20 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.