textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Temperatures mostly above normal with continued periods of locally high heat stress to continue Wednesday.

- Periods of low to medium rain chances continue through Wednesday night.

- Temperatures trend to near normal late week.

- Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until widespread beneficial rainfall occurs.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A weak area of vorticity moving through northeast Oklahoma late Tuesday evening is expected push into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Tuesday night. At the same time, the nearly stationary surface boundary still over the CWA will hold over east central/southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Tuesday night. The combination of these features interacting with a 20-30KT low level jet will aid in a slight chance of rain showers with an isolated thunder potential into Wednesday morning.

During the morning hours Wednesday, the remnants of a storm complex moving off the High Plains is progged to develop into a lingering MCV and push east/southeast into the CWA Wednesday afternoon. Also, during the day Wednesday a well defined low pressure system and mid/upper level trof axis from the Great Lakes region into the Plains will spread east/southeast. This will help orient the frontal boundary that has been holding over the CWA more southwest to northeast across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Wednesday afternoon as the remnant MCV moves across the CWA. In response, shower and thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday afternoon, mainly over southeast/far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The greater potential for storms is currently forecast mid afternoon through mid evening, where a limited severe potential exists. Deep-V model soundings and weak shear values indicate locally damaging winds are the primary threat. Also with the weak flow aloft, storm motions could be in the 10-20 mph range, which would allow for a localized heavy rain threat.

For those that do not receive rainfall Wednesday, hot and humid conditions are anticipated again, especially along and east/southeast of the front. Forecast high temperatures of upper 90s to around 100 deg are possible ahead of the front. Conditions could allow for a window of heat index values up around 105 deg before shower/storm chances increase. Thus, for now though, will hold off on any heat headlines as conditions are dependent on the amount of cloud cover and coverage of precip. However, a short- fused Heat Advisory may be needed as conditions play out. North and west of the boundary, high temperatures in the mid 90s look to be common.

Shower/storm chances shift east and southeast through the evening hours with the movement of the front and mid/upper trof axis. Majority of the precip is forecast to taper off and exit by late evening Wednesday. Overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the elevated portion to the frontal boundary looks to hold up briefly near the Red River. Will hold onto a slight chance of a shower/storm into early Thursday morning before the 925-850mb boundary exits. Severe potentials weaken late evening into the overnight hours and are not anticipated early Thursday morning. Behind the exiting front, temperatures early Thursday morning of mid 60s to mid 70s are forecast from north to south.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Surface high pressure and northeast to easterly winds transporting drier conditions and temperatures more closer to seasonal average are forecast Thursday and Friday in the wake of the departing boundary. This break in the current heat and heat stress remains forecast to be short-lived. Southerly low level flow returns for the weekend behind the exiting surface high pressure. Also the parent ridge of high pressure is progged to expand eastward and set up southeast of the CWA early next week. Thus, heat and humidity returns with high temperatures back in the upper 90s to around 102 deg for the weekend into the first part of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact the northwest Arkansas sites this afternoon into early evening. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 94 71 94 68 / 10 10 0 0 FSM 98 73 96 68 / 60 40 10 0 MLC 98 72 96 69 / 30 20 10 0 BVO 93 66 93 63 / 10 10 10 0 FYV 96 68 92 62 / 50 40 0 0 BYV 92 67 89 62 / 40 40 0 0 MKO 96 71 94 67 / 20 10 0 0 MIO 92 66 91 63 / 10 10 0 0 F10 96 70 94 66 / 20 10 0 0 HHW 100 74 95 71 / 30 30 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.