textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1125 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- A cold front will usher in cooler and drier air tonight, marking the beginning of a days long break from severe weather that is expected to last into the first part of May.

- A storm system is forecast to track east across Texas during the latter part of the week, increasing rain chances mainly south of I- 40 Thursday into Friday.

- Thunderstorm chances will return the first part of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Cooler and drier air will filter into the region tonight into Wednesday behind the front, starting a period of below average temperatures, with aid from expected cloud cover, that will last for the remainder of the week. Models are showing some potential for spotty elevated showers and storms close to the Red River during the day Wednesday. This appears to be forced by mid-level isentropic lift in association with a subtle wave sliding across TX. Another wave of isentropic lift will bring continued low shower chances Wednesday night over far SE OK.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Rain chances will increase across the southern and western portions of the forecast area Thursday as warm advection increases in advance of a storm system. A wave in the northern stream will dive south across the Midwest Friday, with surface high pressure building south down the Plains. A reinforcing push of cool and dry air will make it difficult for rain to spread deeper into the forecast area Friday, as the upper level system tracks east across Texas. The model blend (NBM) PoPs this evening are focusing more in the south with this system as a result. With the warm and unstable air shoved well to the south, thunderstorms are not expected with this system. The weekend is looking pleasant with warming temperatures, especially by Sunday.

Uncertainty increases as we head into the first part of next week. The EC brings a front into the region Monday, but there is no sign of this front in the GFS. Looking deeper into next week, models are leaning toward carving out a trough over the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley next week and bring a cold front at some point (with differences in timing). There will be another round of storms with the front as moisture in place will be sufficient by this time. The model blend has increasing PoPs by Tuesday, and will leave this alone for now.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

IFR cigs are beginning to lift across NW AR sites as drier air works into the region. This should continue, with MVFR conditions arriving and likely lasting through the nighttime hours before finally clearing out. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with mainly some broken high cloud overspreading the region through the day tomorrow. winds will remain out of the north to northeast with some gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible during the daytime hours.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 69 48 69 50 / 0 0 10 20 FSM 73 52 70 52 / 0 10 10 20 MLC 71 53 69 51 / 10 10 30 30 BVO 68 44 69 46 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 70 46 69 47 / 0 0 10 20 BYV 68 46 67 48 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 69 49 67 50 / 0 0 10 20 MIO 66 45 67 47 / 0 10 10 10 F10 69 49 67 49 / 10 10 20 30 HHW 71 56 65 51 / 20 30 40 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.