textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Temperatures mostly above normal with continued periods of locally high heat stress to continue through the week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity.

- Periods of low to medium rain chances continue through at least mid week.

- Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until widespread beneficial rainfall occurs.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The scattered showers and thunderstorms around the region this morning have largely dissipated and shifted east with the departing mid level wave. Surface analysis shows a weak frontal boundary hanging out around northern Oklahoma extending westward into west central Oklahoma as a surface low becomes centered over central Oklahoma. Another weak mid level disturbance is also noted on water vapor imagery moving across southern Kansas toward the local region around the periphery of the stubborn upper ridge. Hot conditions persist, especially south of the weak boundary, where a Heat Advisory continues this afternoon. Persistent showery conditions and cloud cover have kept temperatures in check for the most part across the north and east, so will run with the current configuration of the advisory for now, while monitoring trends.

Later this afternoon and evening, low shower and thunderstorm chances will develop again across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas along the stalled frontal boundary and in response to the approaching vort max. Severe weather is not expected with this activity, but a few stronger storms could develop, with locally damaging wind gusts the main threat. Any storms that do develop will likely wane into the overnight hours as the influence of the mid level wave exits the area, though a few showers could linger across portions of southeast Oklahoma.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A lull in activity is expected through much of Tuesday, with overall warmer conditions areawide anticipated. The frontal boundary will lose some of its definition by Tuesday afternoon, but a small temperature gradient will exist form north to south across the frontal zone. Temperatures in the triple digits can be expected from I-40 south, with upper 90s more common across the north. Have opted to catch the low hanging fruit with a Heat Advisory for tomorrow south of the boundary. Will hold off issuance for now across the north with more uncertainty in boundary influences for those locations. The advisory may need to be extended further north with later forecast packages. Potentially more active weather returns by Tuesday night into Wednesday. A more potent mid level shortwave will drop southeast out of the High Plains. A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to develop well northwest of the forecast area Tuesday evening and track southeastward through the night Tuesday. This complex may reach portions of northeastern Oklahoma early Wednesday morning. Additional showers and storms will be possible during the day Wednesday, with focus shifting south and east with time as the vort max moves across the region. A reinforcing shot of cooler low level temperatures will also arrive in the wake of this system with more normal temperatures expected Wednesday into Thursday.

Upper ridging is forecast to become more centered over the Southern Plains as we head into the weekend. This will bring another period of hot and dry weather over much of the area. Temperatures will trend back well above normal, with little in the way of rain chances through the last half of the forecast period.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with perhaps brief reductions in visibility due to the ongoing showers. Given the low chance of on-station impacts from such, will keep the VCSH mention at the W AR terminals and also add them to the NE OK sites for the first 2 to 3 hours of the period. Gusty winds at the E OK sites may linger past 00Z, with a downward trend by mid evening. MLC should see a period of gusty southwesterly winds beginning by mid morning and continuing until the surface boundary pushes through the site mid to late afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 75 99 75 95 / 10 0 10 20 FSM 75 103 75 100 / 20 10 10 20 MLC 77 104 75 99 / 20 10 10 10 BVO 70 97 70 94 / 0 0 20 20 FYV 71 98 72 95 / 20 0 20 20 BYV 71 94 71 92 / 10 10 20 20 MKO 74 101 73 96 / 20 0 10 20 MIO 72 96 72 94 / 0 0 20 20 F10 74 102 73 97 / 20 0 10 20 HHW 77 102 76 99 / 20 10 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053- 073>075-176-272-276.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066- 071-073.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-219-220- 229.