textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1038 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 - Dangerous grassland fire weather conditions Thursday with a Red Flag Warning in effect.

- Cooler temperatures Friday through early next week. Any rain chances are low and any amounts expected to be very light.

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather returns next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1038 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast for Thursday across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Winds will become gusty at times before sunrise especially with higher terrain locations. The footprint of strong and gusty winds will quickly expand after sunrise with all areas experiencing gusty conditions by mid morning. 00z KOUN sounding verified the deep dry air that will support sfc layer moisture quickly eroding with mixing and resultant humidity values falling into the 10 to 20 percent area wide by afternoon. Westerly winds will be predominant ahead of the cold front which is likely to move into NE OK by mid afternoon and advance quickly southward through the evening. The wind shift from W to NW behind the front will mark an important feature for any ongoing fire suppression efforts. The red flag warning was extended in area to include areas where fires remain present in satellite imagery and any of these fires which remain active overnight could quickly become invigorated by mid morning. Fire weather conditions will improve by late Thursday evening when winds decrease and post frontal cooling aids humidity recovery.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1038 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Cooler temps and light winds expected area wide on Friday with the next wave passing across the Plains Friday night into Saturday. Trends remain for little to no appreciable rainfall across the forecast area and rain chances remain very low and largely confined to far SE OK and western AR. The associated cold front will bring reinforcing cooler air into the region with temps slightly below normal Sunday into Monday.

Warming trend returns by Tuesday and temps quickly warm to above seasonal normals by mid week. No appreciable rain chances are forecast through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions will likely persist through the forecast period, although a brief period of MVFR cigs is possible across SE OK and W-Central AR sites between 10-14z. Widespread LLWS is likely overnight as the LLJ intensifies, leading to gusts up to 50kts out of the southwest. At the surface, winds have decreased during the evening, but will rebound by late overnight/early morning. A pseudo-dryline will move through the region this morning, with low level moisture surging northward ahead of it. This may result in a brief period of MVFR cigs across SE OK and W-Central AR before drier air moves in.

Westerly sfc winds increase significantly by mid-late morning. As a trailing cold front moves through during the afternoon and evening, winds will gradually shift from W to NW. Wind gusts today will generally range between between 20-30 kts, though isolated gusts up to 35 kts will be possible, especially across NE OK. Winds remain strong through the end of the forecast period, but will gradually weaken with time, as well as becoming increasingly northerly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 52 71 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 52 76 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 54 74 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 45 69 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 52 73 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 53 72 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 54 72 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 52 69 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 F10 54 72 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 55 73 40 65 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CST Thursday for OKZ054>074.

AR...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CST Thursday for ARZ001-002- 010-011-019-020.