textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Warm temperatures and gusty south winds expected into Wednesday. This will keep fire weather concerns elevated.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night into the weekend, with periods of heavy rain potential, and possibly severe weather.

- Cooler and drier conditions late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Surface low pressure over western Kansas Monday night pushes east/southeast and becomes elongated from southwest to northeast through the day Tuesday. Attached to the surface low is a boundary which looks to set up along the axis of the surface low from the Texas Panhandle through north central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Latest indications continue to hint that this boundary remains just northwest of northeast Oklahoma Tuesday/Tuesday night. Along and south of this boundary, breezy to gusty southerly winds and continued warm conditions remain common across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. In response, lows Tuesday morning in the 60s and highs in the 80s are anticipated for the CWA. These conditions will help to elevate fire weather danger over much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with min relative humidity of 30-45 percent Tuesday afternoon.

Convection originating from the dryline out west Monday evening should weaken with decreasing instability and eastward extent Monday night. However, an increasing low level jet could allow for a remnant stronger wind gust to make it into northeast Oklahoma overnight. During the day Tuesday into Tuesday night, the greater precip potential looks to be highlighted near/along the boundary as much of the CWA remains capped through the day. Tuesday evening/night, with another increasing low level jet over an expanding area of warm advection and the boundary close to the CWA, shower/storm chances develop over parts of northeast Oklahoma. If the boundary sags far enough to clip northeast Oklahoma there could be a window for an isolated strong/marginally severe potential northwest of Interstate 44 Tuesday evening.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The boundary just northwest of the CWA retreats back northward Wednesday ahead of a shortwave moving through the central/southern Rocky Mountains and a deepening surface low over eastern Colorado. Again, warm conditions and breezy/gusty southerly low level flow over the region will slowly continue to increase low level moisture back into the CWA. Lingering precip chances remain across the northern half of the CWA during the day Wednesday. Shower/storm chances then become more likely Wednesday evening/night as the shortwave joins up with surface low and moves eastward through the region. Storm chances increase out west along the dryline and spread eastward through Wednesday night with the movement of the shortwave. Limited severe potentials exist with this activity as it moves into the CWA Wednesday evening with the greater potential over eastern Oklahoma. Locally damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary severe threats. With eastward extent after midnight Wednesday night, instability and mid level lapse rates currently look to weaken as model soundings show a more saturated column. Thus, a heavy rain threat also exists Wednesday night while precipitable water values climb into the 75-99th percent-tile. Storm chances should continue to weaken/taper off during the day Thursday from west to east once the mid/upper level trof axis moves off to the northeast.

Southerly low level flow does not seem to be impacted all that much with the shortwave moving through Thursday, which allows for moisture advection back into the CWA Thursday night and Friday. Breezy/gusty southerly winds and warm conditions are forecast again Friday ahead of a more defined cold front progged to move into the CWA Friday evening and exit mid/late Saturday morning. Increasing instability ahead of the cold front will help to increase shower/storm chances Friday afternoon, and become more likely Friday night into Saturday morning while the front moves through. Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat again develop Friday afternoon/night ahead of the front over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Precip chances finally exit Saturday evening with the mid level trof axis moving across the region. Cooler and drier conditions are then forecast Sunday into early next week with the CWA between a western ridge and the eastern trof.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Isolated high based convection may develop into NE OK through mid morning with little to no aviation impacts. Mid and high cloud ceilings will dominate with a low chance of stratus spreading into SE OK through mid morning. Gusty winds will continue today. Shower and storm chances increase across NE OK late evening into the overnight hours though coverage and duration of any heavier rains is uncertain. Locally strong gusty winds may develop during the overnight hours as storms dissipate. This short term trend would be addressed by later forecasts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 86 66 84 64 / 10 30 30 90 FSM 86 64 85 67 / 0 0 10 70 MLC 85 67 85 66 / 0 20 10 90 BVO 87 61 84 61 / 20 50 30 100 FYV 83 64 83 64 / 0 20 20 80 BYV 82 65 83 65 / 10 20 20 60 MKO 84 65 83 63 / 0 20 20 90 MIO 84 64 82 61 / 20 40 40 90 F10 85 65 84 61 / 0 30 20 90 HHW 83 64 82 64 / 0 0 10 70

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.