textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1250 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Rains gradually end by Sunday evening. Mostly dry weather on Monday but expect isolated showers and storms primarily SE OK.

- Above normal temperatures continue through mid week.

- Unsettled weather for mid to late week. Expect several periods of high rain chances and heavy rain potential. Some severe weather potential will exist as well.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms across far E OK and NW AR is in advance of the slow moving mid level trough that will continue southeastward. Corresponding zone of low level upglide will decrease through the afternoon and precip coverage is expected to gradually wane. The resultant cold pool sfc boundary will arc across the western periphery of the forecast area by late afternoon and a low chance of afternoon and evening storms will reside near the boundary. Similar pattern of strengthening upglide overnight is expected to focus primarily across SE OK and persist into the day Monday. Guidance favors this scenario but with much less coverage than the ongoing activity and precip chances will continue into Monday but remain low. Lesser cloud cover and warming profiles will lead to most locations being noticeably warmer on Monday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Tuesday is expected to be warm and breezy as the mid week storm system begins to impact the Plains. A corridor of widespread rains will develop west of the region Tuesday night and spread slowly eastward into the day Wednesday. Guidance has come into somewhat better agreement on timing for a renewed corridor of showers and storms developing late Wednesday into Thursday across the local region. Deep moisture plume from tropical remnant of Pollo will be ingested into this storm system and expectations remain for heavy rainfall potential however the axis of heaviest rains remains uncertain. Wind fields will strengthen as the storm system approaches but instability will be tempered by the deep moist profiles. These details will impact any severe weather potential and will also be refined in later forecasts.

Timing of the upper trough to pass across the Plains has not yet become consistent with widely varying solutions still being shown. The forecast will retain a low chance of rain into next weekend largely a reflection of the timing uncertainty. Once the upper trough does pass a cooler and drier airmass likely overspreads the region.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions are most likely to prevail through the period, with SCT to BKN clouds at 6-7kft expected to persist. Winds should be under 10 kts and from an easterly direction. A low chance of shower/isolated storm development this evening and overnight exists, with MLC most at risk for on-station impacts, although that risk remains very low and will not be included in the TAF. Also keeping an eye out for fog potential at the favored NW AR terminals given the rains today. With guidance not really indicating much potential, will continue to leave any mention out of the TAFs but will monitor observational trends.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 66 85 68 89 / 20 10 0 10 FSM 64 88 66 92 / 10 10 0 0 MLC 65 90 67 93 / 30 30 0 0 BVO 61 84 63 87 / 20 10 0 10 FYV 61 83 60 87 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 61 82 59 86 / 10 10 0 0 MKO 64 86 66 90 / 20 20 0 10 MIO 64 81 65 86 / 10 10 0 10 F10 65 87 67 90 / 20 20 0 10 HHW 66 89 67 93 / 30 30 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.