textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1235 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Widespread storms spreading west to east this evening through early Tuesday morning with severe weather and locally heavy rain impacts.

- Temperatures nearer to seasonal averages mid week into next weekend. Mostly dry weather weather is forecast.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1235 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Forecast has remained consistent through tonight. Initial convection will spread into NE OK this afternoon with a limited severe risk as updrafts largely remain elevated per 16z KOUN sounding. A steady increase in sfc based storms is likely by late afternoon from north central OK into N TX with expanding coverage into several larger broken line segments by early evening as storms move into E OK. The line of storms will continue eastward overnight and move east of the local forecast area by mid Tuesday morning.

The evening and overnight severe weather potential will be a balance between meager instability and strong shear profiles especially in the lowest levels. Bulk of guidance has favored organized bowing segments along the line of storms into E OK with a less organized structure further east into the early morning hours. This evolution is plausible given the expected instability gradients, however there remains concern for deeper moisture advecting into SE OK and portions of western AR during the early morning hours and the resultant influences. Forecast hodographs become more enlarged across the forecast area from mid evening through the overnight hours and, should sufficient instability remain to balance this shear, then the severe weather potential will remain defined through western AR as the line passes. Specifically shear within the lowest 1km is forecast to increase within ranges typically seen for at least sporadic wind damage with even less intense updrafts and quickly developing tornado identification will be a warning and communication challenge through the entire event. The ability to be alerted to severe weather warnings through the night time hours is a good reminder for all.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 1235 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Cooler and breezy conditions follow the system on Tuesday as early morning storms move east of the region and wrap around light showers pass across NE OK and NW AR during the afternoon. Another notable shortwave rotates across the region on Thursday with light precip potential with guidance remaining varied in overall coverage. Otherwise, a dry forecast will prevail into next weekend with temperatures nearer early November normals.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

MVFR cigs will likely continue through much of the period. Brief periods of VFR conditions will be possible for a time this afternoon before increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon through this evening first across NE OK sites and then into NW AR sites overnight tonight. Gusty southerly winds will gradually veer to more southwesterly and then westerly by the end of the period. Cigs are progged to clear out behind the passing line of storms during the early morning hours across NE OK before MVFR cigs fill back in behind the cold front as it passes through the region on Tuesday.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 58 67 47 68 / 90 10 0 0 FSM 66 72 51 69 / 90 50 0 0 MLC 58 68 45 69 / 100 10 0 0 BVO 54 66 41 66 / 90 20 0 0 FYV 58 70 40 66 / 100 60 20 0 BYV 64 71 48 65 / 90 80 20 0 MKO 59 68 46 68 / 100 10 0 0 MIO 60 66 46 64 / 100 20 10 0 F10 56 67 46 69 / 90 0 0 0 HHW 63 72 48 71 / 90 20 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.