textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Hot and humid weather continues today, with afternoon heat index values near or above 100 degrees.

- Shower and storm chances increase this afternoon and evening across NE OK and NW AR. Additional storms possible late tonight and Tuesday morning.

- Cooler and less humid weather is expected Wednesday, but unsettled weather returns late week into next weekend with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Another hot and humid day is occurring across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today as upper level ridging strengthens overhead. Temperatures will probably end up a tad higher than yesterday, with much of the area warming into the mid 90s. This will combine with a humid airmass to create heat indices in the lower to mid 100s. This is especially true along and just south of a southward moving outflow boundary in NE OK today. Please make sure to drink plenty of fluid and take breaks when outdoors today.

CAMs continue to suggest isolated to scattered convection will be possible along the aforementioned boundary in NE OK and NW AR this afternoon/evening. Considering heights will be steadily rising through the day, it is unclear just how many showers/storms will develop, but 20-40 percent PoPs are warranted through 03z. The highest potential will occur over NW AR zones and east of the FA. Despite weak shear values, the environment will still support strong to marginally severe storms, with a threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail. Expect any of this activity will dissipate by late evening. Separately, a complex of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop in Kansas this evening and move east and south towards the FA during the overnight hours. Currently expect this activity to be weakening with southward extent, but several CAMs suggest there is at least a low chance for showers and storms to extend into NE OK. Strong to damaging wind gusts will be possible with any storms that enter the area overnight, especially initially.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Precipitation may be ongoing Tuesday morning across portions of the area, gradually moving south. Depending on the exact evolution tonight and Tuesday morning, a remnant outflow boundary may become a focus for redevelopment across SE OK during the afternoon. Ridging overhead continues to raise questions pertaining to coverage and intensity, but slight chance to chance PoPs will be maintained for now.

Going into mid-week, a large area of high pressure develops across E CONUS. It appears this will have just enough influence on our area to keep us dry on Wednesday and cool temperatures down to near seasonal averages. Low level flow returns out of the south on Thursday, providing moisture advection to area. With weak west to southwest flow aloft, this leads to another period of daily storm chances Thursday through the weekend. As has been the case, severe weather should remain limited/isolated overall, though heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will likely be a concern as PWATs climb back to near or above the 90th percentile.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Pilots can expect VFR conditions outside of storm activity. Isolated to scattered storms on a boundary near KFYV and KFSM warrants a prob30 mention over the next few hours. A storm on top of Tulsa warrants tempo mention at KTUL and KRVS. Expect quiet conditions overnight. Shower and storm chances increase from the NW Tuesday morning. Will stick with prob30 groups at the E OK sites as well as KFSM at the most favored time windows per latest short-term guidance. Guidance is also fairly consistent at keeping Tuesday shower and storm activity to the west of the far NW AR sites, so no mention there.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 72 88 68 83 / 20 20 0 0 FSM 73 90 65 85 / 30 10 0 0 MLC 73 92 68 87 / 10 20 0 0 BVO 70 87 66 83 / 20 20 0 0 FYV 70 87 61 83 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 67 82 58 78 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 72 89 67 84 / 20 30 10 0 MIO 70 86 63 82 / 0 10 0 0 F10 71 89 67 84 / 10 20 0 0 HHW 73 93 68 84 / 10 30 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.