textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 516 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Fire weather concerns will remain heightened Friday and Saturday due to gusty winds and low relative humidity behind dry frontal passages.

- Several mostly dry cold fronts are expected during the next week, with below normal temperatures favored Saturday through Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1048 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Cold front currently into NW KS with strong post frontal pressure rises observed (+14mb/3hr) which will prompt a period of gusty winds once the front passes later tonight through early morning Friday. Winds will increase again by late morning as mixing deepens and widespread 30-40mph are expected through the afternoon. Mild temps and afternoon humidity values of 20-35 percent will combine with the gusty winds to raise grassland fire weather concerns especially across eastern OK. Cloud cover and scattered light sprinkles or flurries may spread across far NE OK into NW AR through the afternoon which may locally keep humidity values slightly higher.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1048 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Winds decrease Friday night but a reinforcing cold front on Saturday brings a colder airmass and a period of gusty winds through the day. Conditions more typical of mid January are expected Saturday with the cold and blustery conditions and a few flurries may also be seen as the cold air deepens across the region. Calm winds Saturday night will allow for very cold low temps Sunday morning with sheltered valleys possibly falling into the single digits.

The persistent northwesterly flow aloft through the central CONUS will usher another dry frontal passage late Sunday into Monday which keeps temps below normal. The pattern aloft may become somewhat less amplified by mid to late next week. Temps will moderate and there has been a consistent signal for a storm system to bring at least low rain chances to the region by mid to late next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Cold front will move through KFSM by 17Z, otherwise gusty north winds between 20 and 30kt will persist at all terminals through 00Z. Gusts will subside this evening with speeds near 10kt overnight for most locations. VFR conditions are expected through the period though a mid cloud deck will bring ceilings closer to 7kft this afternoon across northern most sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 50 26 39 14 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 53 27 43 17 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 53 26 44 12 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 49 21 37 11 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 48 23 39 10 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 46 24 33 11 / 10 0 10 0 MKO 51 26 41 13 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 47 23 33 11 / 0 0 0 0 F10 51 26 41 12 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 55 30 43 17 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.