textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

- Cold again tonight and Monday morning; not as cold as this morning.

- Temperatures quickly warm to above normal temperatures by mid week.

- Low rain chances (20-30%) east on Wednesday night and Thursday morning as a front passes, otherwise dry weather prevails.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

The cold, Arctic air has arrived, but will not stick around for very long. The frigid north winds this morning will fall off this afternoon as the ridge axis from a 1044mb surface high begins to move into the area and eventually shifts east late this afternoon or early this evening. In response, winds will veer out of the south/southeast and will commence a warming trend that will persist into the middle part of next week. Despite winds turning southerly and becoming light overnight, bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills are still anticipated for at least one more night. Did lower temperatures a few degrees tonight from what NBM guidance has and closer to MOS guidance. Overnight low temperatures are expected to bottom out in the teens and lower 20s for most spots, with morning wind chills between 5-15 degrees Sunday morning.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Benign and mostly dry weather, with warming temperatures, will prevail through the first half of the upcoming workweek. Subtle mid- level ridging overhead and southerly surface winds will increase temperatures closer to seasonal average during the daytime on Monday as well as Monday night. Cloud cover will begin to increase from southwest to northeast Monday night into Tuesday as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves across the Southern Plains. As the shortwave trough axis moves over eastern OK late Tuesday afternoon or early Tuesday evening, it looks to tap into slightly deeper moisture being pulled in from the Gulf. There may be enough moisture to cause light rain showers, mainly across far southeast OK and west-central AR Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. However, still not confident enough to include mentionable PoPs and capped them at 10 percent. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be very light and not impactful.

A more potent upper-level trough/cut-off low will move across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With southerly winds remaining in place, low-level moisture will continue to be drawn into the region during this time period. Most deterministic models show light precipitation developing ahead of the trough axis, mostly confined in the eastern/southeastern half of the CWA. As the upper-level low continues to advance over the Upper Midwest Thursday morning, a weak cold front will push through eastern Ok and northwest AR. Light rain showers may linger in the vicinity and just behind the frontal boundary across far eastern OK and western AR, but chances should end from west to east behind the frontal boundary Thursday afternoon. Overall, total rainfall amounts look to be light, generally a few hundredths of an inch to a couple of tenths of an inch at most. By Thursday evening, the upper-level low will advance over the Great Lakes region and surface high pressure will settle across the area. Another warming trend will begin starting on Friday morning as high pressure continues to scoot eastward and southerly winds return. Forecast uncertainty drastically increases beyond Friday with several discrepancies in model data. Will maintain the NBM solution for days 7 and 8, which brings in the next cold front late Saturday night into next Sunday morning. Strength of this front and precipitation chances with it are still uncertain at this time.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South winds will gust to near or above 20 knots at times Monday at the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 21 47 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 20 49 30 59 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 20 45 35 60 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 16 48 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 16 46 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 18 47 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 19 46 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 19 44 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 F10 21 45 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 22 44 33 57 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.