textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1131 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A potent arctic front will bring life threatening cold to the area beginning Friday night, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected Friday through Sunday, bringing climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the entire forecast area.

- Travel is expected to become very difficult to nearly impossible at times.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts will linger for several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Mild conditions are expected today with high temperatures in the 50s. Cloud cover will increase and lower throughout the day in advance of the next storm system. The leading edge of the arctic airmass will move through this evening, with northerly flow beginning in northeast OK. North winds will then gradually spread south and strengthen during the overnight hours. Cold air will initially be sluggish in its southward push, with subfreezing air roughly making it to a line from Henryetta up through Fayetteville by daybreak. Temperatures will range from the mid 20s near the KS border to low 40s near the TX border at daybreak.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Cold air will increasing push into the area Friday, especially near and north of Highway 412, with gusts of 25-35 mph. Further south, it is unclear what kind of progress the cold air will make during the day. The AIFS and NAM models are typically more reliable with cold air, and they suggest temperatures remaining just above freezing to the south of I-40 until the afternoon hours, with temperatures then going below freezing areawide. We are within the window of CAM guidance at this point. Much of which shows some light rain showers in southeast OK from roughly noon to 3 PM. Any storm preparations or travel should be completed by midday Friday across the area. For the later afternoon hours, precipitation will increase across southeast OK, with rain transitioning to either freezing rain or sleet, depending on the exact cold air progression. Any wet roads will freeze during this period. Precipitation will spread north to the remainder of the forecast area during the evening hours. Precipitation type will be mostly snow north of I-40, with mostly sleet to the south. There will be variation in this generalization in both time and location. Some freezing rain near the Red River may occur, but is generally expected to remain below 0.2 inches. But again, this depends on how quickly the cold air surges south.

Moderate to heavy precipitation will then continue overnight into Saturday morning as moist isentropic upglide intersects lift from an upper level jet. Exact totals remain uncertain given questions of how far north sleet occurs, exact heavier precipitation axis, and so on. But total snow will be multiple inches for most areas in the north, with an inch or two of sleet in the south. There is uncertainty during the day Saturday, but the majority of guidance leans towards either a break or at least weaker precipitation rates for a time. Given gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph, some blowing and drifting of snow is likely. Temperatures will hover near 8-15 F in the north during the daytime, and 15-25 F in the south.

The main trough axis will then swing through later Saturday into Sunday, reinvigorating precipitation rates. With cooling upper levels this will cause snow ratios to increase in the north, and nudge the precipitation type towards snow with time in southern areas. There is still a decent subset of guidance that keeps this second surge weaker and further south, which would limit totals. The majority of guidance, however, shows this second band as robust with low density snow, meaning it will accumulate efficiently. Snow may linger as long as early Sunday afternoon before totally shutting off.

These factors together point to a widespread storm total of 6-12 inches of snow north of I-40. If some of the higher end guidance were to develop (less likely) it is possible local accumulations could be as high as 18-20 inches somewhere. Conversely, the low end scenario (also less likely) would be 6-8 inches in the north. Blowing and drifting of snow will make travel very difficult if not outright impossible for a time. South of I-40, sleet accumulations will be prolific, potentially up to 3-4 inches in spots. These types of totals will cripple many area roads. Typically sleet takes a long time to melt so impacts will linger for multiple days. A couple of inches of snow may fall on top of the sleet near the end of the storm. Additionally, some icing near the Red River could result in localized power outages. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect to cover these expected storm totals.

Very low wind chills will develop Friday evening in the north, spreading to all areas Saturday. Wind chills will fall below zero for at least a time in most locations. Actual high temperatures Saturday and Sunday will mainly be in the teens. Lows are expected to be well below zero Monday morning for many areas. The Extreme Cold Watch was upgraded to a Warning to account for this danger.

Temperatures will slowly moderate into the middle of next week, with highs climbing into the 30s but lows remaining below 20 each night. This will refreeze and compact existing snow and sleet, keeping road conditions treacherous into at least late week. There is a bit of a signal in the ensemble guidance for a weak system near next Friday, but no additional precipitation should occur after Sunday until at least then.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of this forecast period. Low clouds will begin to stream north and westward overnight and may pass or impact KMLC with lower chances further north and east. Cold front moves into NE OK after midnight and makes slow but steady progress southward with winds becoming gusty from the N after the passage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 54 26 28 8 / 0 0 20 100 FSM 54 33 39 17 / 0 0 20 100 MLC 56 35 39 14 / 0 0 50 100 BVO 52 21 24 4 / 0 0 20 90 FYV 53 26 32 9 / 0 0 20 100 BYV 49 25 27 8 / 0 0 10 90 MKO 54 32 33 12 / 0 0 30 100 MIO 52 22 23 5 / 0 0 10 90 F10 56 32 32 9 / 0 0 40 100 HHW 54 40 42 19 / 0 10 70 100

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.