textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1114 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Very hot conditions are expected this afternoon, with afternoon heat indices of 105-115 for much of the area.

- A weak cold front will bring some heat relief Wednesday and Thursday, but the heat will return Friday.

- Mainly dry weather is expected until at least Thursday, with low rain chances developing toward the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1114 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Very hot conditions are anticipated this afternoon with several locations already reporting HI of over 105 at 11AM. Expansion of low level thermal ridge across the local area will result in afternoon highs a few degrees hotter and widespread triple digits through eastern OK and the AR River Valley in west central AR. In addition a corridor of mid 70s dew points likely to pool south of an approaching front as as such, HI likely to top out 105-115 in most areas, and a few spots could conceivably push 120. Configuration of heat headlines for today will be unchanged, though a section of northwest AR along the Missouri border will need consideration for an upgrade.

Front will gradually push south tonight with drier low level air eventually spreading across the region from the north. A stray shower or storm is possible with the arrival of the front, with odds slightly favoring the terrain of northwest AR. POPs for now will be kept below 15%.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1114 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Above mentioned front will bring a respite from the heat and humidity for a couple of days, though points near the Red River may still see HI in the 100-015 range Wednesday afternoon. Dew points will lower into the 60s and high temps should trend near or even a bit below normal through Thursday.

Front will begin to lose influence by Friday as low level flow returns from the south. There are indications of a piece of shortwave energy topping the upper ridge with some increase in thunderstorm chances Thursday night and again Friday night as well. Beyond that the ridge is forecast to expand back across the region this weekend and early next week, beginning another stretch of hot weather and additional headlines. Should note that NBM forecast highs are likely a bit warm next week, but triple digit heat appears likely in any case.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 102 76 92 73 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 103 78 96 74 / 10 10 0 0 MLC 102 79 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 101 73 91 70 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 99 73 90 68 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 100 69 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 100 76 93 72 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 100 71 89 69 / 0 0 10 0 F10 101 76 92 72 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 100 78 96 74 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ069.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053- 055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 119-120.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219- 220-229.