textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding are the main concerns in the near term as the unsettled weather pattern continues through Friday.

- Confidence remains high in the unsettled pattern persisting however timing and placement of strong storms and heaviest rains is less certain.

- A more typical summer time pattern expected to build over the region by early next week. Heat headlines will likely be needed.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The latest round of showers and thunderstorms has tracked into northwest Arkansas and will continue to push east of the local region through mid afternoon. Heavy rainfall remains the primary threat as one to two inch per hour rates have been common through the morning hours. A break in the activity is expected through the rest of the afternoon into the evening across a good chunk of the forecast area as some sun likely makes an appearance for some. A few scattered thunderstorms will still be possible along the residual outflow boundary draped across southeast Oklahoma form mid to late afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes in areas untouched by the morning activity. These storms could potentially become strong to severe owing to the high instability in place. Heavy rainfall rates will also continue to be a factor as PWAT values remain near climatological maximums. The rainfall and cloud cover will hold temperatures back across the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon, with highs only expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s... while upper 80s to near 90 will be common across the south.

Heading into the overnight hours, the unsettled pattern looks to pick up again. Confidence in the guidance is not overly high in this pattern, but the consensus is that another band of elevated showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight within a zone of warm advection from north central Oklahoma southeastward into parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Slow movement and training of storms with heavy rainfall rates will again lead to flooding concerns, especially given the already saturated grounds. Therefore, have extended the Flood Watch to cover this time period and beyond as it won't take much rainfall to lead to issues across those areas that have seen heavy rainfall amounts over the last few days.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing again Thursday morning across portions of eastern Oklahoma possibly into northwest Arkansas. This activity should gradually lift northeastward through the morning hours as the zone of ascent lifts northeastward into southern Kansas/southwest Missouri. Again, another break will likely occur from late morning into the early afternoon before storm chances increase again Thursday afternoon and evening. By that time, the upper level ridge will be suppressed somewhat to the south as a mid level shortwave tracks eastward through Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A zone of enhanced flow aloft will develop in this area by mid afternoon, increasing deep layer shear through the period. Depending on how the morning activity evolves and what kind of boundaries it leaves behind, more robust thunderstorm development will be possible Thursday afternoon and early evening generally form Highway 412 and north. Large instability and increasing shear will provide an environment for storms to become better organized with higher severe potential. All hazards will be possible, including tornadoes as the low level flow increases toward late afternoon. Heavy rainfall will continue to be an issue through the day Thursday and into Friday morning, so have opted to go ahead and extend the Flood Watch into Friday morning to cover the potential for flooding concerns through the period. There will be breaks and not all areas will see the heaviest rain, but the potential is there for any location over the next couple days.

Moving into Friday, the pattern begins to shift into a more typical summertime scenario. The upper ridge will begin to build back into the Southern Plains pushing much of the storm chances to the north of the local region. Residual boundaries will still likely be in the vicinity and could focus some shower and storm chances across the northern portion of the forecast area on Friday. Otherwise, the rising heights and more stable conditions will allow most of the area to begin to dry out. Hot and humid conditions will be the result, especially heading into the weekend. High pressure aloft looks to strengthen into early next week with ample sunshine and temperatures returning to the 90s. High humidity from all the recent rainfall will also likely cause dangerous heat index values with heat headlines likely needed through the remainder of the forecast period for portions of the forecast area.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The main aviation impacts for this TAF period will be from repeated rounds of storms that will temporarily reduce cigs and vsbys blo VFR. An MCS is now moving into W AR, with TEMPO groups in those TAFs over the first few hours. Some scattered afternoon storms could affect KMLC and a PROB30 was used to cover. There should be a quiet weather period overnight with increasing storm chances after 08Z or 09Z. Kept previous forecast PROB30 mention and extended it into the morning, followed by a prevailing SHRA, VCTS mention from mid-morning thru the end of the TAF period at most sites.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 71 88 75 90 / 70 30 30 20 FSM 72 91 75 91 / 70 30 10 10 MLC 73 91 78 91 / 40 20 10 10 BVO 67 86 71 88 / 60 40 50 20 FYV 68 86 73 86 / 60 40 20 20 BYV 66 85 72 86 / 50 70 30 30 MKO 70 88 75 89 / 60 30 20 20 MIO 67 86 72 87 / 50 60 50 30 F10 71 88 75 89 / 50 30 20 10 HHW 73 90 75 91 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ055>071-073>075-154- 172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...None.