textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1000 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Overall quiet weather will persist through the next week.

- Above average temperatures continue Tuesday, then A cold front will drop temperatures closer to normal. Potentially much colder weather possible next weekend.

- Fire weather concerns remain elevated through Wednesday due to dry conditions and gusty winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1000 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Partly to mostly clear conditions will continue through the overnight hours with light southwest flow. Temperatures will be warmer than last night, with most areas seeing lows in the mid to upper 30s.

During the day Tuesday, very warm conditions will develop once again with mild downslope southwest flow. Went a few degrees above NBM, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Fire weather concerns will remain elevated due to these warm, dry, and breezy conditions. This will especially be true west of Highway 75 in northeast OK. Cloud cover will gradually increase throughout the day as the next cold front approaches, which will move into the area from the north during the evening hours. Winds will quickly switch to northerly with cooler air spilling into the region.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1000 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Cool northerly flow will develop into Wednesday with northerly wind gusts of 25-35 mph for many areas. This will continue the fire weather potential. High temperatures Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Light showers and sprinkles may develop, particularly across northwest Arkansas, but the dry lower levels will result in little to no accumulation. Temperatures will be quite chilly Thursday morning as winds go calm under the surface high, ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.

Southerly flow will attempt to return by later Thursday, but it will not have much time to result in any appreciable warming with highs fairly similar to Wednesday. Yet another dry cold front moves through Friday with a surge of northerly wind. The coldest air will hang back and arrive on Saturday as northerly flow continues. Ensemble guidance shows a notable split with respect to the intensity and duration of the cold air for this period. Some guidance wants to quickly send the cold air east with the pressure gradient reversing over the weekend, and warmer air returns. Other guidance hugs the terrain more closely with the arctic push, which would imply much colder temperatures on Sunday (potentially the coldest of the winter so far), and lingering into at least Monday. At this range it's difficult to know which will be correct, but did lean colder than NBM given some of the solutions are very cold. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that this will be a dry or mostly dry front. There is very little ensemble support for precipitation, with nothing at all being the most likely outcome.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

The main change made to the 00z forecast was to insert LLWS mention at most sites with model/grid data indicating a strong enough WSWrly LLJ to warrant mention across the region late tonight into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with gusty SW winds from mid to late morning into the afternoon at most sites. Winds subside by sunset tomorrow evening.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 64 41 69 43 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 62 35 70 43 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 64 38 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 64 34 68 38 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 59 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 59 43 66 41 / 0 0 0 40 MKO 63 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 59 39 64 41 / 0 0 0 30 F10 65 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 60 35 67 43 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.