textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Cold and blustery this afternoon, NW winds gusting 25-35 mph.

- Despite colder temperatures, fire weather concerns will remain heightened this afternoon due low relative humidity and strong winds.

- Near to below normal temperatures favored through Tuesday, low rain chances arrive across the south by mid next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A rather cold and blustery afternoon is in store across the area as northwesterly winds pick up this afternoon behind another cold front. Temperatures will level out in the upper 30s to lower 40s this afternoon, with wind chill values in the 20s across a good chunk of the forecast area thanks to wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. a few flurries will remain possible over the next couple of hours across far southeast Oklahoma where some mid level frontogenetical forcing continues. However, very dry air in the sub cloud layer will likely lead to evaporation of any precipitation before reaching the surface. A steady stream of cloud cover into the early afternoon should keep temperatures a little lower than guidance along the Red River, and have lowered highs to reflect this trend in those areas. Surface high pressure moves over the region this evening, allowing winds to calm and skies to clear. Good radiational cooling conditions will lead to cold night with widespread lows in the teens forecast. The more sheltered valley locations will likely drop into the single digits, especially from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas where winds remain calm through the night. The surface high will quickly drift south over the region, with at least light southwesterly flow returning across northeast Oklahoma before the night ends as surface pressure falls across the Central Plains intensify in advance of the next system. This could lead to temperatures not bottoming out completely and even rising some toward sunrise Sunday.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Southwest winds quickly pick up during the morning hours Sunday in advance of the next front set to move through the area Sunday afternoon and evening. After a very cold start, temps should quickly rebound in association with the downslope flow ahead of the front. Highs look to get back up near 50 before the arrival of the next front. The passage of this front will knock temps back well below normal again for Monday as places across the north could struggle to get above freezing during the day owing to the potential for widespread cloud cover. Gusty northerly winds will make it feel even colder as wind chill values in the teens to low 20s will be common. The frontal passage looks to be mainly dry again, though a subtle shortwave could generate some flurries or very light snow showers Monday morning into the afternoon across northeast Oklahoma. Another cold night is in store on Monday night with lows again dropping into the teens to single digits.

The general progressive surface pattern continues through the middle part of the week with a warming trend returning Tuesday into Wednesday before another cold front moves through Wednesday afternoon. A plume of tropical moisture will try to surge northward ahead of the next front, but will mostly be shunted eastward before it can arrive over eastern Oklahoma. However, far southern and eastern portions of the forecast area will see an increase in rain chances with the next frontal passage on the periphery of this moisture plume. Guidance continues to indicate a shift in the upper pattern becoming less amplified and more zonal toward next weekend, with a signal for more active weather over the Southern Plains. We will continue to watch the trends, with a possible uptick in more widespread precip chances in the 7 to 10 day timeframe.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Ongoing gusty winds will diminish this evening and remain light through early morning. Skies remain mostly clear with gusty southwest to westerly winds returning from late morning through the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 13 52 22 31 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 17 49 24 36 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 10 53 25 36 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 9 51 19 31 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 9 45 19 29 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 10 43 19 27 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 12 52 23 33 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 10 47 19 28 / 0 0 0 10 F10 11 54 24 33 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 15 52 27 43 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.