textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Predominantly dry conditions expected Friday as most precipitation exits to the east, but isolated showers remain possible during the afternoon across northwest Arkansas.

- Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normals this weekend.

- Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday Night) Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Widespread showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms were ongoing across the forecast area as of late Thursday evening. Precipitation will gradually shift east through the overnight hours, with PoPs becoming increasingly confined to northwest Arkansas Friday morning. Outside of the ongoing shower activity, patchy drizzle and/ or light fog may develop during the overnight/ early morning hours given the very saturated airmass.

A cold front is dragged through the forecast area today as the mid- upper level wave begins to depart. Still, high temperatures max out around 70 degrees across NE OK and NW AR, and in the mid-upper 70s across SE OK and W-Central AR. WNW winds will pick up slightly behind the front today, but should generally remain within 10 to 20 mph. A couple of showers remain possible in NW AR this afternoon as the upper level disturbance passes just to the north, but overall, dry conditions are forecast for much of the day.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Cooler and dry conditions are likely Saturday and early Sunday while shortwave ridging builds over the region. Another storm system arrives late Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain chances to E OK & NW AR. Guidance has trended quicker and further north with this system, reducing the heavy rain/ flooding threat. Still, expect 1-2 inches of rainfall (locally up to 3") within the heaviest axis... currently aligned across SE OK and W-Central AR. Instability continues to appear on the weaker side, but thunderstorms including a couple of strong storms, cannot be ruled out Sunday night, mainly in SE OK. Rain chances exit the region by late Monday. A couple of cold fronts push into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing colder temperatures to the FA through the end of the week (Highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s/ 30s). Dry weather is expected through at least Thanksgiving.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Varying ceilings from LIFR to MVFR are expected to lift back to scatter MVFR/VFR conditions from west to east today ahead of a cold front forecast to move through this afternoon/evening. This evening and overnight tonight, the associated low pressure system moves over the region, with scattered/broken MVFR ceilings forecast to wrap back into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Winds through the period start out southerly and become westerly this afternoon and west/northwest tonight. Lastly, there remains a slight chance of rain for northwest Arkansas terminals ahead of the front, though with uncertainties of coverage/impacts to any one terminal will hold off on mentioning in the TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 71 47 62 44 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 76 52 66 47 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 75 48 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 70 43 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 72 48 62 43 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 71 49 61 44 / 30 0 0 0 MKO 73 48 63 45 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 70 46 60 43 / 20 10 0 0 F10 73 47 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 75 48 67 46 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.