textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms through tonight. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns.

- Moderate flooding on Polecat Creek near Sapulpa through Sunday morning. - A few storms could become marginally severe Sunday afternoon and evening. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail, but tornado threat is non-zero.

- Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines likely.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Expanding cluster of showers and thunderstorms currently moving across far southeast OK with a few stronger embedded cells displaying some rotation on the far edge of local area. This will need to be watched over the next couple of hours as it further expands east and north this afternoon in a region of stronger deep layer flow closer to the base of upper level trough. With increasing instability through the afternoon, storms with severe potential should continue to develop into northwest AR and part of northeast OK.

Heavy rainfall potential remains through today for much of the local areas with PWAT near climatological max and persistent low level moisture advection. Thus storms will be efficient rain producers and produce locally excessive rainfall amounts through this afternoon. Most of the above mentioned activity is forecast to shift to the east by this evening.

A somewhat concerning signal has emerged in some of the latest CAM data as instability continue to re-expand north this evening beneath continued relatively strong flow at the base of the upper trough as it slowly lifts northeast. Most CAMs show fairly robust convection breaking out in a corridor across parts of northeast OK and far northwest AR late this evening, and some potentially lingering into early Monday morning. This will not only lead to another round of severe potential, it will also continue the flooding threat beyond 06z expiration of current watch. Thus have expanded the watch til 18z Monday for a couple of counties in NW AR along the MO border, and a few NE OK counties where the strongest signal currently is shown. This may need to be expanded farther south and/or west depending on later trends in data.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Aside from lingering shower and thunderstorm potential during the morning, Monday will be a quieter day as the upper trough continues to move away front he region and upper ridging begins to expand over the Southern Plains. A period of hot and humid weather will ensue for the first half of the week at least, with heat headlines likely needed one or more days given the recent rainfall and it's potential impact on dew points. More unsettled pattern with increased showers and thunderstorm potential is expected to return for the later part of next week as upper ridge weakens with the passage of a strong upper tough across the Northern Plains.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late this evening and overnight and potentially impact the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites. This activity may linger into Monday morning at the far northwest Arkansas sites. MVFR ceilings will develop at all sites by late tonight and will persist Monday morning before lifting to VFR Monday afternoon. South winds will gust to near or above 20 knots at times during the day Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 73 90 77 91 / 50 10 0 0 FSM 73 91 76 93 / 40 10 0 0 MLC 75 90 77 91 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 71 90 75 91 / 70 20 0 0 FYV 71 86 75 88 / 60 30 0 0 BYV 70 86 73 89 / 60 40 0 0 MKO 72 88 75 89 / 50 10 0 0 MIO 70 88 75 90 / 90 60 10 0 F10 73 89 75 90 / 30 10 0 0 HHW 73 89 75 90 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for OKZ057-058-062-063.

Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ055-056-059>061-064>071- 073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ARZ001-002.

Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ010-011-119-120-129-219- 220-229.