textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1155 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Increasing rain chances tonight and continuing into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary concern.

- After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of the workweek.

- Next storm system and rain chances arrive next Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1155 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An upper-level low that is currently drifting over the Rockies will move over the Central Plains tonight into Monday morning. Deep moisture will surge ahead of the upper low and spread over the forecast area from the south and west after sunset this evening. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms, currently ongoing over the High Plains and western-north Texas, will be progressing eastward this afternoon, and moving into eastern OK by early-mid evening. The moderate to heavy rain shield will gradually move into west/northwest AR after midnight tonight. Latest hi-res guidance shows the heavy rain axis beginning to shift south after 3 AM, focusing much of the heavier rain south of I-40 and closer to the Red River. Overall, widespread rainfall amounts are expected to stay less than an inch through sunrise Monday, with rain continuing beyond sunrise, but isolated locations may receive up to or even more than an inch if enough training occurs.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1155 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Moderate to heavy rainfall will be ongoing at the start of the long- term period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur, embedded in the heavy rain, as elevated instability maximizes (500-1000 J/kg) south of I-40 early-mid Monday morning. With sufficient deep layer shear in place, there could be a few organized, strong and/or marginally severe thunderstorms that develop. However, the better instability will remain south of the Red River and therefore excessive rainfall will remain biggest threat through the entire morning. Latest hi-res models have the heavy rain axis from far southeast OK into west-central AR through much of the morning after sunrise. A warm frontal boundary will lift northward out of TX and near the Red River in the afternoon as an upper-level jet streak moves overhead. These two features may aid in maintaining moderate to heavy rainfall and a small chance for severe storms in the afternoon, again mainly across far southeast OK and western AR. Additional rainfall (in addition from Sunday night) amounts of 1 to 2 inches still seem most likely across southeast OK and western AR through the daytime Monday, a few locations could see higher amounts. Regardless, majority of the forecast area should remain below flash flood guidance and therefore will forgo issuing a Flood Watch. Despite no Flood Watch being issued, chances of minor flooding are still high and medium to high for isolated flash flooding.

Wrap-around rain/showers around the departing upper-level low will linger into Monday evening, with majority of the rain exiting or ending before midnight Tuesday. As the upper-level low/trough departs, a weak cold front is forecast to push through on the backside of it, turning winds more out of the west or west- northwest by early Tuesday morning. A reinforcing shot of colder and drier air will arrive Tuesday afternoon, bringing in breezy and gusty northwest winds. Temperatures fall below seasonal average Tuesday night through Wednesday night with surface high pressure remaining northwest of the area and northerly winds persisting. Ensemble guidance suggests there is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of a widespread light freeze overnight Wednesday night. High pressure will then shift northeast of the area by Thursday morning and southerly winds return, warming temperatures back up to near average through the remainder of the week. Next storm system/rain chances still look to arrive by next Saturday. Better details to come in later forecast updates.

Mejia

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low clouds and IFR to LIFR cigs continue to impact portions of E OK and W-Central AR this afternoon. Overall, the clouds are forecast to gradually erode through this afternoon and reveal clear skies, as has occurred within the past few hours across NW AR. IFR to MVFR cigs will tend to hold on longer across E OK sites, but should eventually dissipate with the arrival of the next storm system approaching from the west. This storm system will result in increasing rain chances for all sites overnight, with thunder also possible primarily at MLC and FSM. Isolated to scattered showers persist through Monday morning, particularly across SE OK and W-Central AR. Cigs and vsbys are expected to fall into IFR or LIFR category by early Monday morning and will be slow to improve through the end of the forecast period. Winds generally remain light, but may become briefly gusty with the arrival of precipitation tonight through the morning hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 51 62 49 63 / 80 70 10 0 FSM 51 61 51 66 / 80 90 40 0 MLC 52 64 48 67 / 100 90 20 0 BVO 47 60 45 63 / 80 70 20 0 FYV 49 60 50 63 / 70 90 40 0 BYV 48 58 51 62 / 50 90 40 10 MKO 51 61 50 63 / 90 80 20 0 MIO 49 60 51 62 / 80 80 40 0 F10 51 63 48 63 / 100 70 10 0 HHW 52 63 48 66 / 90 100 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.