textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1208 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Isolated storms Tues - Wed primarily SE OK and NW AR

- Temperatures near normal Tuesday then rising above normal for much of the remainder of the week.

- Thunderstorm chances trend higher late week through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Mid level low pressure center which helped foster the storms Monday afternoon is currently located over north central AR and will continue to slowly move east away from the local region. Coverage of any afternoon storms on Tuesday is expected to be less and primarily focused from SE OK through NW AR across the higher terrain. Temperatures near normal with slightly lower dewpoints likely Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Isolated afternoon storms remain favored across the higher terrain on Wednesday with thermal profiles warming as ridging aloft gradually expands eastward. Thursday is forecast to be the warmest day of the week as low levels veer slightly with the passage of a stronger wave to our north. This wave may usher a weak cold front southward into the area by Friday but this remains uncertain. A more probable outcome is that the upper ridge is temporarily weakened with the passage of the wave and conditions become slightly more supportive of diurnal showers and storms through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures would also favor nearer seasonal normals within this pattern. A more dominant upper ridge continues to be shown by early next week which would favor a drier and hotter pattern.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will be light overnight with mostly clear skies. A few clouds in the 4-5 kft range are expected along with some high clouds on Tuesday. A couple of afternoon showers or storms may form near KFSM and KMLC but probabilities are too low to include in the TAFs at this time (10-20% chance). Winds will gradually shift from NE to ESE Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 92 72 96 78 / 10 0 10 0 FSM 94 74 96 76 / 20 10 20 0 MLC 94 72 96 78 / 20 10 20 0 BVO 91 68 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 89 68 92 73 / 20 10 20 0 BYV 88 67 91 72 / 20 10 20 0 MKO 91 71 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 90 69 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 F10 91 70 95 76 / 10 0 10 0 HHW 92 72 94 76 / 20 10 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.