textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

- Low chance of showers in northwest AR and far northeast OK tonight and again Saturday, otherwise dry for the next week.

- Several mostly dry cold fronts are expected during the next week, with the coldest one arriving Saturday into Sunday.

- Fire weather concerns will remain elevated Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday due to gusty winds behind the dry frontal passages.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1000 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A cold front will move through the area the next few hours with somewhat cooler air and breezy northerly winds developing. Low temperatures will remain mild with the coldest air lagging the front significantly, mostly in the 40s. A few sprinkles and light showers will occur overnight, with skies then gradually clearing during the day Wednesday. As cold air advection ramps up during the day, it will largely be offset by diurnal trends, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s in the north, and mid 50s in the south. A subtle secondary frontal boundary will move through during the afternoon, with cold and dry air advection increasing during the evening hours. These gusty winds on top of the continued dry conditions will promote fire weather concerns through sundown.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1000 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A surface high behind the front will quickly move south Thursday morning, being positioned roughly directly overhead as winds go calm. This will result in a fairly cold morning Thursday, with low temperatures in the low to mid 20s areawide. However, warmer southerly flow will resume by the afternoon, with high temperatures rising back to the upper 40s to low 50s for most areas.

For the remainder of the forecast period we will see a strong amplified ridge develop along the west coast up towards Alaska. Numerous arctic pushes will descend to the east into the interior of the United States. However, given no downstream blocking across the southeast, the individual troughs will remain fairly progressive. In effect, this will imply numerous mostly dry cold frontal passages with briefly warmer interludes for Oklahoma and Arkansas.

The next cold front arrives on Friday. It should be completely dry. It also appears rather underwhelming in terms of cold air, with only a slight drop in temperatures expected behind it. However, the gusty northerly winds will again increase fire weather concerns during the daytime hours. A more substantial cold push arrives Saturday. The dynamics look better with this system but it will be moisture starved, so the best case scenario is probably a few sprinkles or light showers. With that said, it will be cold enough that any precipitation could potentially fall as snow, but the probability is very low (5-10% chance). With clearing skies, light winds, and dry air, Sunday morning will be very cold. The forecast lows were reduced to the teens for most areas, except for portions of southeast OK where it may remain in the lower 20s.

Depending on how the pattern evolves, we may briefly warm up early next week, but additional (likely dry) cold fronts can be expected. Long range guidance suggests that the next chance of meaningful precipitation is likely at least 10 days away.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

MVFR ceilings at the far northwest Arkansas sites will lift to VFR by late morning. North winds will gust over 25 knots at times today before diminishing quickly this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 50 23 52 34 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 53 24 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 53 23 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 48 19 52 31 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 48 17 47 29 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 46 18 44 34 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 50 22 51 34 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 46 19 47 33 / 0 0 0 0 F10 51 23 54 35 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 55 25 52 34 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.