textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Higher-end severe weather threats are possible, particularly in SE OK.

- Severe storms may also occur Sunday but confidence is lower.

- Thunderstorm chances linger into Monday and Tuesday across eastern areas, but the severe weather potential appears to be lower.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

West-southwest flow aloft persists across the Southern Plains today and a mid-level shortwave will pass through the region this afternoon. At the surface, south to southeast winds will provide continued moisture advection east of a strengthening sfc low located in NW Texas. This will maintain 60+ dewpoints across eastern Oklahoma today. A remnant outflow boundary/warm front will continue to move northward out of Texas this afternoon, providing greater moisture concentration and low level convergence across southeast Oklahoma. As sfc temperatures warm this afternoon, strong instability should develop across eastern Oklahoma, especially across the southeast.

Low clouds have so far been slow to erode, but isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is still expected by mid to late afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the warm front across central to southeast Oklahoma. A more subtle boundary further north into NE OK may also prove to be a focus for potential development. Sfc winds will generally remain out of the south to southeast today and strongly veer with height, producing enlarged clockwise-curved hodographs. With steep lapse rates and strong deep layer shear present, storms are likely to intensify and become supercellular, especially across SE OK. All severe hazards will be possible, including very large to giant hailstones in excess of 2-4 inches, tornadoes (potentially strong), and damaging wind gusts. Tornado potential is likely to be maximized along the warm front this evening as the LLJ strengthens. Given elongated hodographs in the upper levels, storm splits can be expected, with right-mover motion oriented to the southeast and left-movers trending northeast.

The greatest severe potential should end by late evening or early overnight tonight, though some chance of severe weather will linger into the overnight hours as additional elevated thunderstorms remain possible into the early morning hours Sunday. The threat for significant/higher-end severe weather is mainly before midnight. Additionally, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible this evening, especially across southeast Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Sundays forecast will be largely influenced by what happens today and tonight, but at least some potential for severe weather will persist. Showers and storms may be ongoing Sunday morning, with a gradual trend towards decreasing precip through the morning into the afternoon. Latest guidance indicates a later arrival of the shortwave and greater convective inhibition across the warm sector, casting doubt on afternoon/ evening development across the FA. Still, if a storm can develop and intensify, the environment will support severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. It appears the greatest potential for severe wx in our CWA may stem from any supercells which develop west of the area along the dryline, then move east into the FA. However, this would probably be a fairly brief window during the late afternoon/ evening hours Sunday.

As the mid-upper level system navigates eastward Sunday night into Monday, a cold front will push east as well. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front Monday afternoon, potentially impacting parts of far E OK/NW AR before exiting the region. Severe weather will be possible with this activity, but less so then over the weekend. A secondary front will push south into the region Monday evening and overnight, but may tend to hang up across SE OK Tuesday as a mid-level wave moves across the Southern Plains. Thunderstorms are again expected to develop along the front during the afternoon, with severe weather possible across SE OK and W-Central AR.

A break in the active pattern is expected on Wednesday as the front finally clears the area with high pressure filling into the region. Rain chances return late Thursday and Friday as an upper low moves east from the desert SW. At this time, the greatest instability is expected to reside across SE OK or south of the FA altogether, limiting thunderstorm potential. High pressure follows with a period of quieter weather possible next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue through this evening, currently two corridors seem favored...over from north of BVO into northwest AR and another near and south of I-40. Areas of MVFR ceilings will persist especially within storms. Any sites directly impacted by storms will see a period of IFR conditions with potentially gusty winds. For the most part convection will move out of the forecast areas by 06z, likely followed by a period of more widespread MVFR ceilings into Sunday morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday morning with conditions trending toward more VFR by Sunday afternoon with winds becoming more gusty out of the south. At this time the potential for any storms 18 00z is too low to mention.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 62 79 69 88 / 70 30 30 10 FSM 62 82 69 88 / 80 30 40 30 MLC 63 83 71 88 / 90 20 20 10 BVO 57 78 64 87 / 60 30 30 0 FYV 59 79 65 84 / 70 40 50 40 BYV 59 77 66 84 / 70 40 60 50 MKO 61 80 69 87 / 80 30 30 10 MIO 59 78 67 84 / 70 40 50 20 F10 60 82 69 87 / 80 30 20 10 HHW 63 82 68 87 / 90 20 20 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.