textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1123 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Frost/freeze expected again Saturday morning in many locations.

- Rain chances return late Saturday night and Sunday.

- Warming and quiet through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Pleasant conditions prevail through the day today as surface ridging dominates the region, bringing clear skies and generally light northeasterly winds through the afternoon. Highs this afternoon will remain rather cool in the wake of a reinforcing shot of colder air feeding into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on the western edge of a strong mid level low moving through the eastern half of the country. Highs in the low to mid 50s will be common across the north, with some 60s expected nearer the Red River this afternoon.

Surface ridging will remain over the area tonight, leading to good radiational cooling conditions and another night of near to below freezing temps expected areawide. A wider coverage of sub freezing temps is expected overnight, thus have issued a Freeze Warning to cover those areas most favorable to reach 32 or below by Saturday morning. Some portions of far northeast OK and very far northwest AR dropped into the mid 20s this morning, indicating a widespread hard freeze occurred in those locations and signaling the end of the growing season. Thus, a new warning will not be issued for those locations tonight, though temperatures will again drop into the low to mid 20s. Sub freezing temps are less likely near the Red River, but temperatures in the mid 30s will be favorable for some frost development, though low level dry air will likely limit widespread frost formation. Still, have issued a Frost Advisory for those locations as areas of frost could still occur, especially in more sheltered valley locations.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Saturday looks to be another pleasant day areawide. The surface ridge will slowly shift eastward, bringing easterly to southeasterly winds to the region. Wind gusts could pick up later in the day, especially across eastern Oklahoma as a surface low tracks eastward into the Southern Plains by Saturday night. At the same time, a mid level low will gradually track eastward through Oklahoma Saturday night into Sunday, while weakening and becoming cutoff from the main jet stream spreading across the northern states. Low level moisture will slowly return to eastern Oklahoma ahead of this system, and widespread showers are expected to spread into eastern Oklahoma from the west beginning early Sunday morning. Moderate to occasionally heavy showers look to last through much of the day Sunday over eastern Oklahoma, while drier air further west will limit the rain potential across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The heaviest rainfall is forecast across the southern half of the CWA where up to an inch plus will be possible by Sunday evening as things begin to wind down. Lighter precipitation and totals are expected the further north and east you go across the region with only upward of a tenth of an inch across far northeast OK and northwest AR. Instability will be very limited, so any thunder potential is very low, but some isolated thunder potential will be possible near the Red River during the day Sunday. The widespread thick cloud cover and widespread precip will keep temperatures near steady, generally in the mid 40s Sunday across eastern Oklahoma. Highs could climb into the 50s further east across Arkansas where thicker cloud cover and precipitation will be later to arrive.

Any precipitation will mostly exit the area by Monday morning, though lingering cloud cover through much of the day Monday will keep conditions below normal for much of the area. Mid level ridging will build in through the middle part of the week, with southerly surface flow returning. Thus, a warming trend will commence with temperatures rising back above normal and quiet conditions persisting through at least Wednesday. Guidance diverges on the pattern evolution through late week, but a more active weather pattern is looking more likely late week into next weekend, though timing and location of the various features remains in low confidence at this point.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 54 31 57 38 / 0 0 0 60 FSM 58 32 56 38 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 56 32 57 37 / 0 0 0 80 BVO 54 25 57 33 / 0 0 0 40 FYV 52 24 55 30 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 50 28 51 35 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 54 32 55 38 / 0 0 0 50 MIO 51 27 55 36 / 0 0 0 10 F10 55 33 56 39 / 0 0 0 80 HHW 63 38 59 40 / 0 0 0 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for OKZ055-059>062-064>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354- 376.

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for OKZ049-053.

AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for ARZ002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229.