textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1135 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

-Some low storm chances are forecast across far NE OK into NW AR Thursday morning.

-After several days of some unusually quiet weather for May, thunderstorm chances return to the forecast to close out the week. However, the weather impact looks low overall.

-A more active weather pattern is expected as we head into next week. Severe weather and heavy rainfall potential will be on the rise.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Surface analysis places a slow-moving cold front near the Red River. The front will become oriented more NW to SE tonight as the western portion of the front stalls and retreats north. With dry air in place across NE OK and NW AR and clear skies, overnight lows could dip into the upper 40s in the sheltered valley locations. Meanwhile, down south where dewpoints are higher closer to the front, lows in the low 60s can be expected.

Looking at the larger picture, we will see a transition from NWrly flow on the back side of an upper trough centered over the Great Lakes to W to SWrly flow aloft as the upper trough shifts east and shortwave ridging takes its place. As part of this transition, mid- level waa/isentropic lift increases tonight into Thursday morning over the region. The latest CAMs hold off on developing a N-S band of showers and isolated storms until almost 12Z, and focus the activity from far eastern KS down into far NE OK and NW AR. Rain/storm chances should end by midday as this zone of lift shifts east and weakens.

By Thursday afternoon, the focus for storms will be well to the west along the surface trough/dryline. Scattered storms develop over western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles and move east into the evening. Storms will most likely weaken before they make it into eastern OK.

A tight gradient will set up over eastern OK on Thursday, between lee side low pressure over the central/southern High Plains and high pressure over the Mississippi Valley. Strong south winds will be the result, with gusts exceeding 30 mph, especially across NE OK.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

The RRFS and HRRR have been consistently showing an area of low pressure aloft moving over the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. This appears to be a subtle wave embedded in the west-southwest flow aloft and possibly convectively enhanced. Either way, these models break out scattered showers and some storms over the area into Friday morning in association with the feature. The model blend (NBM) had very little in the way of PoP forecast and this was increased to slight chance over a broad area. Coverage is expected to decrease into the afternoon in its wake. Cloud cover will probably limit heating and thus the severe risk as well. Depending on afternoon storm coverage to our west Friday afternoon, some of this activity could affect the area into Friday night with a marginal severe risk.

By Saturday afternoon, global models show stronger ridging and warmer temps aloft over the dryline out west and have isolated coverage at best. It is not likely this activity makes it to eastern OK. The better storm chances stay north of the KS border closer to a front. Storm coverage on Sunday looks low at best with warm mid- level temps and the main upper trough still well west. While there will be a noticeable increase in humidity in the coming days, there will be a much more pronounced increase in low level moisture Sunday into Monday with dewpoints climbing into the 70s.

The western CONUS upper trough will approach the Plains early next week, with a belt of strong mid-level flow across the central part of the country. The associated cold front will approach the forecast area and will likely focus storms that will probably affect the region by Monday night. With the upper trough not making much more eastward progress across the country next week, the boundary is likely to hang out over or near the region and focus more storm activity. With the stronger flow aloft and higher dewpoints, severe weather potential will be on the increase. Multiple rounds of storms could drop locally heavy rainfall as well.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

High clouds increase across the CWA tonight and remain common through the day Thursday ahead of a ridge of high pressure moving eastward over the southern Plains. Late tonight into Thursday morning, scattered to broken mid clouds are also forecast over the northern half of the CWA. Within the mid clouds, an isolated chance of a shower/storm develops for far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. For now though will continue to keep TAF sites dry with little to no impacts to terminals. Winds become light out of the east this evening/tonight and then increase out of the southeast/south during the day Thursday. VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 59 84 71 87 / 10 10 20 20 FSM 57 84 64 88 / 0 10 10 20 MLC 60 85 71 87 / 0 10 10 20 BVO 51 85 69 87 / 10 10 10 20 FYV 49 80 67 85 / 10 20 10 20 BYV 50 80 65 85 / 0 20 10 20 MKO 56 83 69 86 / 10 10 10 20 MIO 53 80 68 86 / 20 20 10 20 F10 58 84 71 86 / 0 0 20 20 HHW 62 84 68 87 / 10 10 0 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.