textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Area-wide Wind Advisory in effect from 1 AM Sunday until 1 AM Monday. - Colder temperatures and strong, gusty northwest winds will follow behind a cold front on Sunday.

- A low threat of severe thunderstorms will exist ahead of the front across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday.

- Light snow is possible across extreme eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Sunday evening/night. Little or no accumulations expected.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A noticeably warmer day has transpired compared to this time yesterday, due to a warm front that has now lifted north of the area. Temperatures have already reached the upper 60s and lower 70s. Southerly winds have already picked up, but will further increase by mid-late afternoon as an area of low pressure deepens across the High Plains and a strong cold front approaches the area. Southerly winds will remain breezy and gusty through the evening and the overnight period as a very sharp temperature inversion and subsequent 50-60 knot low-level jet at 850mb develop quickly after sunset. Sustained wind speeds in excess of 20 mph will be common after midnight, with few gusts 40-45 mph certainly possible. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area from 1 AM Sunday until 1 AM Monday.

With strong warm air advection in place, temperatures will remain very mild and humid tonight, with overnight lows generally bottoming out in the low-mid 60s.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Large-scale upper-level trough will amplify and dig south across the Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning. Strong and gusty southerly winds, with occasional gusts 35-45 mph, will be ongoing across eastern OK and northwest AR at the start of the long-term period. A strong cold front will quickly and abruptly begin to move into the area around or just after sunrise Sunday. A very brief lull in winds will occur right along the frontal boundary before powerful north to northwest winds take over following the frontal passage. Guidance continues to suggest widespread periodic wind gusts 40-50 mph will be common behind the frontal boundary through much of the daytime, with occasional gusts around 55 mph, just a few mph short of High Wind Warning criteria. Will continue to monitor trends in wind speeds and will upgrade to a warning, if necessary. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of the forecast area from 1 AM Sunday until 1 AM Monday. The gusty winds and crashing relative humidity values on Sunday will cause near- critical to locally critical fire weather concerns, especially across eastern OK where humidity values will be lowest and recent rains have been sparse.

Warm sector light precipitation may develop (10-20% chance) early- mid Sunday morning, ahead of the approaching front. But the better chances are expected to come beginning mid-late morning along the frontal boundary, with a line of showers and thunderstorms anticipated to develop along it. Depending on the timing to the front, a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may end up forming late morning or early afternoon before the frontal boundary pushes south and east of the area. At this time, the best opportunity for severe storm potential will be for far eastern portions of the forecast area (mainly far eastern OK and northwest AR). However, if model guidance continues to show a quicker frontal arrival, the severe threat will continue to decrease and will stay east of the forecast area. A couple of deterministic models still show a low chance of wrap-around wintry precipitation as the trough begins to exit and shifts northeast of the area. Will maintain a low chance (15-20%) of a rain/snow mix Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly for far northeast OK and far northwest AR. Snowfall accumulations, if any, will remain less than half an inch. Overall rainfall amounts will remain light as well, with only a few hundredths of an inch to couple of tenths of an inch at most through Sunday night.

Temperatures will rapidly fall through the day behind the cold front Sunday, with most locations dipping into the 40s and 50s in its wake Sunday afternoon. Skies will clear from west-to-east Sunday night into Monday morning and temperatures are forecast to plummet into the teens and 20s by early Monday morning. With northwest winds remaining breezy Sunday night, wind chill values will fall into the single digits and teens around the morning commute Monday morning. Strong cold air advection will maintain unseasonably cool temperatures through they daytime on Monday, as well. Afternoon highs are only expected to reach the upper 30s to mid 40s. Breezy northwest winds will persist into the afternoon, though not nearly as gusty as on Sunday. These winds will make temperatures feel like the 20s and 30s through much of the day as well as and keep near-critical fire weather concerns for much of the area. Another widespread freeze will occur Monday night into Tuesday morning. South winds return on Tuesday and this will begin a warming trend into next weekend. By late week, high temperatures will reach the 80s, with some locations in eastern OK potentially approaching 90 degrees. At a least limited fire weather threat will tend to persist through next week. Rainfall appears unlikely through the majority of the long-term period.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening into very early Sunday morning with gusty south winds persisting overnight. LLWS will develop overnight as well with a strong LLJ in place. Low level moisture increase in this pattern will lead to a period of MVFR ceilings developing, with lower probability of this occurring across northeast OK. A strong cold front will then sweep through the forecast area Sunday morning, with a shift to northwest winds that will likely gust in the 30-40 knot range throughout the day, and some local gusts near 50 knots are possible across NE OK. Showers and thunderstorms will eventually develop along the front by afternoon, but increasing likelihood this will not occur until the front has pushed east of all the TAF sites. Low ceilings will scatter behind the front but may return later in the afternoon near KS and MO borders.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 57 66 23 44 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 58 65 25 44 / 0 60 10 0 MLC 62 68 26 46 / 0 20 0 0 BVO 50 62 18 42 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 55 63 20 39 / 0 70 10 0 BYV 59 63 19 35 / 0 80 10 0 MKO 60 67 24 43 / 0 30 0 0 MIO 54 65 19 37 / 10 60 10 0 F10 61 69 25 45 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 60 73 29 46 / 0 20 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049- 053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002- 010-011-019-020-029.