textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon areawide. Severe weather is not expected, but heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible.

- Daily rain and storm chances continue through the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary concern, which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly below average over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Broad troughing is present across the western US, with an embedded upper level low just south of the forecast area. It is in the process of being absorbed into the broader trough, but will still help to enhance lift somewhat across the area today. Given the decent moisture levels and solid daytime heating, showers and storms are expected to develop through this evening. Due to weak wind shear, severe weather is unlikely. A few showers have already been noted across west-central AR, and this will continue. Shower activity will then diminish after dark, but may not totally cease overnight. Afternoon highs will again reach the lower 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

An elongated trough axis, oriented NW-SE, will slowly pivot through the area the next few days. A low level circulation will gradually move east over this period, helping to focus low level moisture, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Weak wind shear will limit the severe weather potential. Rather, with PWAT exceeding 1.7" at times, heavy rain and isolated flooding will be the main threats. With that said, CAM guidance at large is not super enthusiastic. Although CAM guidance is showing pockets of heavy rain, as mentioned previously, it's also showing large swaths of relatively little activity with lulls in between waves. In the end, this is likely going to mean a few areas that get fairly decent rain totals, with other areas seeing rain, but not necessarily impressive totals. Overall storm totals of roughly 0.50-1.50 inches will be common, with locally higher amounts.

In terms of specifics, model guidance develops a west-east band on Wednesday that lifts from south to north. Guidance mostly leans towards better consolidation of precipitation for areas further to the north and east. But there is enough model to model uncertainty in timing, coverage, and intensity its hard to be more specific than that. Confidence in more widespread coverage of precipitation is higher for Thursday into Friday. Kept temperatures slightly below NBM guidance as it appears too warm given the widespread clouds and precipitation. The system driving the precipitation this week will move out by this weekend, but a glancing blow from another shortwave trough may kick off some additional rounds of showers and storms Saturday into Sunday or Monday.

Heading into next week, ridging builds overhead, but there is a decent ensemble signal that a cool high will drop into the northern Plains. It may get just close enough to send a brief intrusion of cooler and drier air into the area. That would mean a continuation of near to slightly below normal temperatures but under clearer conditions. However, this is a week away, and confidence is low.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be common over the next 24 hours, with the greatest coverage of showers and storms being this afternoon and early evening. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail outside of heavier showers and storms, although some patchy fog may develop late tonight, especially at KFYV and KROG.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 64 82 66 79 / 10 60 50 80 FSM 65 83 67 81 / 20 80 60 80 MLC 66 80 66 80 / 30 80 70 70 BVO 61 82 64 79 / 10 50 40 70 FYV 61 82 65 78 / 20 70 40 90 BYV 60 81 64 78 / 20 60 30 80 MKO 64 81 65 78 / 20 70 70 80 MIO 62 82 65 80 / 10 50 30 70 F10 64 81 64 78 / 20 70 50 80 HHW 66 78 66 80 / 50 60 60 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.