textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected through the week with a Heat Advisory for portions of E OK and W-Central AR Wednesday and Thursday.

- Periodic low to medium rain chances return to the northern half of the area through Friday night, with the best chance late Thursday into Friday morning.

- Drier conditions expected this weekend into next week with dangerous heat remaining a concern for the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Very hot conditions are likely for much of the area this afternoon as heat indices increase to 100-107 degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for parts of E OK and W-Central AR until 8 PM. A stray shower or storm could develop just about anywhere in the forecast area this afternoon, but the main potential will occur along and north of Highway 412...closer to a frontal boundary located near the OK-KS border. Some low PoPs persist into tonight for far NE OK / NW AR as the LLJ strengthens, though the bulk of precip is expected to remain north of the local area. Low temperatures will be comparable to last night in the 70s for most.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Isolated light showers may be ongoing Thursday morning across far NE OK and NW AR, but with minimal impacts. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible again during the afternoon hours, with highest potential again occurring generally along and north of Hwy 412. By late Thursday evening and overnight, higher precipitation potential will develop along the frontal zone in NE OK and far NW AR as a stronger shortwave moves into the region with a strengthening LLJ in the lower levels. This shower/storm potential will likely persist into Friday and some redevelopment will be possible during the afternoon hours. Severe weather is not expected, but any storms in the area will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and some strong wind gusts. Given dry antecedent conditions, flooding concerns will remain very low. Rain chances decrease for this weekend and into early next week as upper level ridging builds back over our area.

Apart from local deviations caused by precipitation or prolonged cloud cover, high temperatures will generally remain steady in the mid 90s to lower 100s over the next several days. Dewpoints will not be as high as during our last heatwave, but certainly still high enough to produce dangerous heat indices through at least early next week. Thus, additional heat headlines appear probable, though the exact configuration Thursday and Friday will depend on convective trends in NE OK and NW AR. For now, have issued a Heat Advisory Thursday for much of the same areas as Wednesday, namely the Tulsa metro and AR River Valley. With the expectation for more cloud cover near the OK-KS border, the advisory does not cover these areas at this time. However, local expansions may be required in future forecast updates based on observational trends. Aside from the heat, low impact weather is expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Few to broken mid and high clouds are anticipated across the CWA through the TAF period. Slight chances for a shower/storm remain for mainly north of Highway 412 through late evening, and again just outside of this period as a nearly stationary frontal boundary holds just north of the CWA. For now, with isolated potential development, will hold off on mentioning in the KBVO TAF. Southerly winds generally continue into Thursday morning, with a period of easterly winds tonight for KFSM. With the CWA expected to be south of the boundary, and outside of any convection, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 78 100 78 99 / 10 10 30 20 FSM 76 100 77 99 / 10 10 10 20 MLC 77 100 76 98 / 10 10 0 10 BVO 72 98 72 97 / 20 20 50 40 FYV 71 96 73 94 / 10 10 30 30 BYV 74 95 74 93 / 10 10 30 40 MKO 75 99 74 97 / 10 10 20 10 MIO 74 96 74 93 / 20 20 60 30 F10 75 101 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 HHW 76 96 76 95 / 10 10 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-064>067- 070-071-073-074-176-272.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ060>062- 064>067-070-071-073-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ129-219-220.