textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

- Areas of dense fog and drizzle persist this morning.

- Widespread rain this afternoon and evening, especially along and south of Highway 412. Potential for locally heavy rains in southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.

- Limited threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms in southeast Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Low levels remain saturated and areas of dense fog are ongoing this morning ahead of an approaching upper level wave. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for much of E OK & far NW AR until 10 AM. Additionally, low level ascent is increasing with time leading to expanding coverage of drizzle or light rain showers for much of the FA. Sfc conditions should tend to improve as the base of the trough pushes into OK & N TX by mid-late morning. Notable height falls will be occurring as this takes place and a substantial uptick in precip is expected by late morning or early afternoon, especially across SE OK. Rain coverage will spread into portions of NE OK & NW AR during the afternoon & evening as this system makes swift progress through the region. While heavy rainfall will certainly be possible given the anomalously moist airmass (PWATs near/ above 90th percentile for late Dec), the quick-moving nature of this system should tend to limit flash flood concerns. It should also be noted that recent guidance has trended more south with most QPF and it is not out of question that locations north of Hwy 412 will miss out on much of today's heavier rainfall.

Northward extent of instability continues to be in question, especially in regards to severe potential. Should still see isolated to scattered thunderstorms across at least SE OK and W-Central AR... but relatively better severe probs appear to remain restricted to far SE OK, in closer proximity to the sfc low & more favorable warm sector. For any storm that can intensify in this area, large hail & damaging winds will be the primary hazards... though there may also be a non-zero tornado potential given adequate wind profiles.

The heaviest and most widespread precip should move off to the east of the area by the evening hours... though scattered showers & isolated storms will remain possible on the back side of the low into the early overnight period. Thus, will hold onto chance PoPs through 09z across E OK & NW AR. High temps remain in the 50s for most locations today and overnight lows fall into the 40s or lower 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Broad longwave troughing will persist through the end of the week with additional shortwaves impacting the region. The first of which will move overhead during the day Friday...keeping clouds and low shower chances in place near the OK-KS border. Any rainfall will be light. The impacts from this wave will be less pronounced across SE OK and some partial clearing may occur here during the afternoon hours. Another disturbance makes progress into the region on Saturday. By this time, it appears best moisture will remain to the east of the area, thus low rain chances should be confined to AR zones. Cloud cover should thin from SW to NE during the day as well.

We will see a break from the daily storm systems on Sunday with much more sunshine and warmer temps. By Monday, a mid level trough & associated sfc low ejects off the Rockies into the C Plains. This will be a dry storm system for our FA but we will see a notable increase in south-southwest winds during the day Monday. A strong cold front will be dragged down by this system and would also expect gusty northerly winds following the frontal passage. Post-frontal high pressure builds into our area Tuesday and Wednesday... beginning a period of quieter weather.

High temperatures in the mid-upper 50s and lower 60s are expected Friday and Saturday before warming into the mid-upper 60s on Sunday and Monday. Highs will fall into the upper 40s/ lower 50s following next week's cold front (near or slightly below average for this time of year). Lows in the 30s and 40s can be expected into early next week, then into the 20s just in time for the new year.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Mainly IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the forecast period with areas of drizzle, fog, and a few light showers. A period of more significant rainfall, including the potential for thunderstorms at KMLC and KFSM, is expected this afternoon into early evening, with most of this activity remaining south of KBVO.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 54 47 57 44 / 60 40 10 0 FSM 58 51 59 47 / 90 80 10 0 MLC 57 48 60 44 / 90 50 10 0 BVO 53 43 55 40 / 30 40 20 10 FYV 58 46 55 44 / 60 80 10 10 BYV 56 48 55 46 / 40 90 10 10 MKO 56 48 57 44 / 90 50 10 0 MIO 57 47 55 44 / 30 50 20 10 F10 54 46 58 42 / 90 50 10 0 HHW 57 48 60 44 / 100 50 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ054>075.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-002.