textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1146 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 - Red Flag Warning has been issued for most of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas from 9 AM until 8 PM Thursday.

- Fire weather conditions continue to be the main concern today and Thursday due to the warm and windy conditions.

- A cold front brings cooler temperatures and low precipitation chances for Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1146 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A subtle and very weak cold front moved through the forecast area earlier this morning and has brought dewpoint/humidity values down. Winds are already back out of the southwest, albeit light, but with a very dry airmass already in place. Although wind speeds are not expected to be exceptionally breezy today, they will pick up enough in the afternoon that limited to locally elevated fire weather concerns will emerge across portions of eastern OK, especially northeast OK along and west of Highway 75, where fire spread rates will rise between 150 and 180 ft/min. A Fire Danger Statement remains in place today for portions of northeast OK, generally west of a line from Vinita to McAlester. The other storyline for the day are the abnormally hot temperatures. Temperatures have already climbed into the mid-upper 60s to near 70 degrees late this morning. Additional warming is expected into this afternoon and temperatures may approach or reach record-breaking values, with all 3 climate sites (TUL, FYV, FSM) at risk of tying or breaking their daily records.

Winds will decrease late this afternoon and into this evening, but will remain somewhat elevated through the night as a mid/upper-level wave moves across the Plains. Some moisture recovery is expected overnight, especially across far southeast OK, but this will be short-lived with relative humidity/dewpoints falling once the sun rises Thursday morning. Skies tonight will be mostly clear, with scattered low clouds across far southeast OK after midnight. Overnight lows will range in the low-mid 50s for most places.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1146 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The main focus in the long-term period will be focused on the near-critical to critical fire weather setup tomorrow (Thursday). An area of low pressure will quickly develop and rapidly strengthen along the foothills of the Rockies overnight tonight into Thursday morning. Latest guidance shows surface winds really cranking up after sunrise, likely caused by the low-level jet winds mixing down to the surface. Gusts up to 35 mph will be possible the first couple of hours after sunrise. Winds turn more westerly and will decrease slightly by mid to late morning as the first pseudo cold front/dryline moves across the forecast area. This feature will keep winds gusty and further dry-out the boundary layer, setting the stage for a potentially high-impact fire weather day. The combination of unseasonably warm temperatures, strong downslope flow at or near the surface, a dry airmass at the surface, and dry fuels will cause near-critical to locally critical fire weather conditions for much of eastern OK and northwest AR. Was confident enough to upgrade the current Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, which goes into effect from 9 AM until 8 PM tomorrow. Was tempted to add another row of counties south of the current watch to the warning, but confidence is still too low to add additional counties at this time mainly due to recent rains in those counties. A secondary cold front will move through the area after sunset Thursday, turning winds more out of the west-northwest or northwest. Red Flag conditions are expected to persist into early Thursday evening before winds decrease and RH values slow rise.

Temperatures will be cooler and much closer to seasonal average Thursday night into Friday as surface high pressure settles into the area. Another upper-level system will quickly pass to the north of the area Friday night into Saturday. Although low precipitation chances (10-20%) still exist on the southern periphery of this system, medium-range models continue to trend precipitation chances and amounts lower each run for the local area. Highest chances (20%) seeing any measurable rain will be across far eastern OK and western AR overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. There is also a very slight chance of some snow flurries mixing with light rain near the OK/KS and MO/AR borders for a small window early Saturday morning. No impacts are expected. Temperatures will remain close to average through the weekend and possibly even into Monday before much warmer temperatures return by midweek. Dry weather is also likely to continue and may promote additional fire weather concerns next week.

Mejia

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and for much of tonight. The latest short-term models indicate some potential for MVFR cigs in the low level moisture return ahead of a low pressure system toward daybreak Thursday. This potential is greatest from KMLC northeast to the NW AR sites, but only for a few hours. Inserted TEMPOs to highlight the most favored time window.

Prevailing sfc winds should remain aob 12 kts at most sites today. There is a narrow window of gust potential at KMLC this afternoon and this was reflected in a TEMPO group there. Sfc winds stay southerly but aob 10 kts overnight, however a developing SWrly LLJ will yield LLWS conditions at all sites from roughly 06Z until after daybreak Thursday. From mid-morning onward, SWrly winds will become stronger and gusty, with gusts up to 25 kts through 18Z.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 52 70 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 51 76 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 55 74 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 46 68 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 51 72 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 53 72 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 53 72 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 51 69 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 F10 54 71 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 56 74 42 64 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CST Thursday for OKZ054>071.

AR...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CST Thursday for ARZ001-002- 010-011.