textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening. Severe weather is unlikely, but gusty winds and small hail will be possible with stronger storms.

- Cooler and drier weather tonight through Wednesday.

- Moisture returns Thursday into late week with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and early evening, mainly along a remnant outflow boundary across NW AR and far SE OK. Additional convection may develop in the vicinity of a remnant MCV across NE OK/far NW AR this afternoon and evening. However, this will likely depend on the magnitude of insolation and resultant destabilization which occurs here. Weak shear should keep the severe threat low overall, but gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the any stronger cells. Any ongoing storms are likely to dissipate by late evening. Overnight, expanding high pressure to our east will push into the forecast area and result in dry conditions and cooler temperatures, especially across portions of NW AR where lows may fall to near 60. Low temperatures likely remain in the mid-upper 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Predominantly dry and cooler conditions are expected on wednesday with ridging influencing the region, though an isolated shower or weak storm cannot be ruled out along and west of Highway 75. PoPs were held below 15 percent for now. By Thursday, southerly low level flow returns, bringing moisture back to the area with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances as a weak wave approaches from the west. West to southwest flow aloft will then persist through the weekend as an upper low slowly lifts out of northern Mexico. This will provide daily rain and storm chances into early next week. 0-6km shear remains fairly weak which should help keep severe chances limited, though with abnormally high PWATs in place, heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding will likely become a concern again. The most widespread and heaviest rainfall is currently expected to occur Friday through Sunday. Temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly above average through the extended period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Majority of shower and thunderstorms from this morning have moved out of the area and away from the TAF sites. VFR is expected to persist through the forecast period at all sites. Another round of showers and storms are expected to develop late this afternoon and into this evening, mainly across far northeast OK and far northwest AR. Probabilities are too low to include any mention of RA or TSRA right now but may need to be added later, especially if the latest models are underdoing convective development. Additional low shower and thunderstorms chances will develop by mid morning Wednesday as another weak upper level wave approaches. Added some PROB30 groups for to the northeast OK terminals for thunderstorms by 14-15z. Winds will be mostly light out of the northeast, veering out of the east or southeast by Wednesday morning.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 69 85 66 86 / 10 10 0 20 FSM 67 86 66 87 / 0 0 0 30 MLC 70 88 67 86 / 0 10 0 30 BVO 67 85 62 86 / 20 10 0 10 FYV 63 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 59 79 60 82 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 68 84 66 85 / 10 10 0 30 MIO 65 83 62 85 / 20 0 0 10 F10 68 85 64 85 / 0 10 0 30 HHW 70 85 68 84 / 10 10 0 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.