textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Increasing showers and thunderstorm today and tonight associated with a passing cold front.

- Brief cool down in wake of the front but unseasonably hot temperatures return over the weekend through next week.

- Thunderstorm chances return Saturday however confidence is low in exact placement and coverage.

- While locally heavy rainfall is possible through Friday night, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Combined outflow / cold frontal boundary will continue a steady southeastward progress and clear the forecast area by mid evening. Storms will continue to develop along and north of the boundary with a few strong to severe storms likely through early evening with localized strong winds the primary hazard. A brief lull in convective coverage is possible this evening, however persistent mid level troughing and increasingly favorable upper jet dynamics will likely foster another period of more widespread convection from late evening through the early morning hours. Placement and evolution of this convection is more uncertain, but western AR and possibly far SE OK will be within the more favored corridor. Plentiful deep layer moisture and generally slower storm motions will allow for locally heavy rainfall potential. While ongoing drought conditions will welcome the rainfall, there may be brief periods of heavier runoff on hardened and shallower soils.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Showers and storms may be ongoing into the day Friday before dissipating or spreading east of the local forecast area. Otherwise, dry and somewhat cooler weather is expected Friday with the return of unseasonably hot weather beginning Saturday. Various guidance members suggest MCS development across KS either Saturday or early Sunday and these complex spreading southeast toward the region with a weakening trend into the building upper ridge. Confidence is low in this scenario as the spread in timing and location remains high, however the overall pattern does support this potential so expect notable adjustments in forecast rain chances once a scenario gains agreement. Temps on Saturday will be largely dependent on the coverage and duration of any showers and storms, but the trend will remain for hotter weather building through the weekend into the middle of next week. Heat advisories appear likely at some point during this period. The next potential cold front and increasing rain chances arrives toward the middle to latter part of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A more complex TAF forecast today for the first time in what seems like months. An aggressive outflow boundary is working its way south across the region today, forcing showers and storms both along and behind it. In the near term, used a combo of prevailing, tempo and prob30s to address storm impacts. Another round of convection is expected this evening and overnight from SE OK into NW AR and will address this potential with prevailing and prob30 groups. Finally, clouds are expected to clear across NE OK tonight and guidance suggests the best chance for IFR or blo fog development at KBVO. Farther south at KTUL/KRVS, guidance is leaning more toward MVFR low cloud than fog. For KMLC and the NW AR sites, all guidance suggests MVFR or even IFR low clouds can be expected toward daybreak Friday.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 68 91 71 94 / 20 10 30 40 FSM 73 92 72 98 / 70 60 20 20 MLC 70 93 72 99 / 60 50 10 20 BVO 62 90 65 93 / 20 10 30 50 FYV 65 89 65 95 / 70 50 20 20 BYV 68 87 68 93 / 70 50 20 20 MKO 67 90 68 95 / 40 30 20 30 MIO 66 89 68 92 / 20 10 20 30 F10 67 92 69 97 / 30 30 20 30 HHW 72 92 72 97 / 50 50 10 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.