textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- Medium to high (40-80%) precipitation chances will occur again Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall, minor flooding, and isolated flash flooding will be possible.

- Daily rain and storm chances continue through the weekend and into early next week. Locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary concern, which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly below average over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Satellite and radar imagery both show a well-define area of surface low pressure that has now shifted north across the Red River and into southern OK. Bands of showers and thunderstorms continue to shift towards the north/northwest. This convective activity will persist into Thursday morning, with the bulk of precipitation falling north of I-40 overnight. However, a few to scattered showers and storms will likely pulse near and around the low as it lifts northward across eastern OK. Weak shear will keep a lid on organized severe thunderstorm chances.

Minor flooding and isolated flash flooding will remain the main weather concerns through the daytime Thursday. Consensus in hi-res model data show a very slow northward progression with the surface low across eastern OK. As daytime heating gets going, additional convective bands are expected to develop sometime around late morning or midday Thursday. Severe threat will be extremely low, but brief funnel clouds and/or a landspout tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with any robust convection in or near the surface low. The most impactful threat will be heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding and isolated flash flooding. CAMs and ensembles show general rainfall amounts between a quarter to three quarters of an inch, mostly near and north of I-40. However, they both also paint isolated swaths of heavier amounts between two and four (or greater) inches where training storms and stronger updrafts/cores occur. Given the latest data, these isolated swath amounts seem reasonable, but difficult to pinpoint exact locations at this time. By Thursday evening/night, the surface low becomes much less defined and more broad as it lifts into southeast KS. Convection is expected to wane and decrease in coverage as daytime heating is lost and much of the low-level lift shifts northward. However, CAMs suggest scattered showers and thunderstorms persist after midnight on the far eastern periphery of the surface low in KS, mainly impacting far eastern OK and northwest AR. This scenario is plausible, but confidence of occurrence is low.

Temperatures Thursday afternoon will highly depend on cloud cover and rain, but in general, daytime highs will be capped in the mid to upper 70s, to near 80 degrees for most locations. Temperatures may warm up into the low to middle 80s if sunshine is able to break out at any point. Overnight low temperatures will hover in the mid-60s for most locations Thursday night.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

The overall synoptic weather pattern does not change too much through the upcoming weekend, though precipitation chances are not expected to be quite as high or widespread, especially as we get to the latter half of the weekend and into early next week. With that said, weak troughing aloft will maintain at least low to medium (20-50%) daily (nightly) chances of showers and thunderstorms through at least Tuesday. Heavy rainfall and flooding will remain the main threats over the next several days. However, marginally severe thunderstorm chances will increase slightly Friday afternoon and evening, mostly across eastern OK, as an upper-level jet streak approaches and enhances lift that develops storms in western/central OK. Confidence is low at this time, but if this scenario does play out and storms are able to move into the forecast area from the west, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with organized storms.

Precipitation chances become more isolated in nature Sunday through Tuesday. Mid-level ridging will have more of a presence and will be fighting with weak mid-level waves undercutting the ridging. Isolated to scattered convection may develop each afternoon. Ridging becomes the more dominate force by midweek, which should keep the area mostly dry Wednesday into Thursday.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Overnight showers and isolated storms will generally favor areas north of Interstate 40 with a decrease in coverage toward sunrise. Current VFR to MVFR ceilings will likely lower into prevailing MVFR to IFR levels through Thursday morning. An increase in showers and isolated storm coverage is likely from late morning through the afternoon with pockets of heavier rains impacting flight conditions. Ceilings are likely to begin lowering again after sunset Thursday with a decrease in precip coverage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 65 83 68 86 / 60 30 40 50 FSM 67 85 68 88 / 50 50 30 40 MLC 66 86 70 89 / 30 20 10 30 BVO 63 83 66 86 / 70 30 40 40 FYV 66 81 66 85 / 60 70 30 60 BYV 64 79 64 83 / 70 80 20 60 MKO 65 83 68 86 / 50 40 30 40 MIO 65 81 66 85 / 60 50 30 50 F10 64 85 68 87 / 40 20 30 30 HHW 66 85 69 88 / 40 10 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.