textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Well above average temperatures are expected this week with dangerous heat at times for much of the area.

- Isolated to scattered showers will occur periodically for the next several days, but overall dry weather will continue.

- Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying fuels and periods of gusty winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A frontal boundary remains draped across southeast OK, and was the source for earlier storm activity. The REFS (a multi member convective allowing ensemble) shows a 30-50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight across much of eastern Oklahoma. It shows elevated storms forming along a convergent 850-700 hPa boundary beneath some modestly strong mid level flow. This seems like a good representation given showers and storms are already forming within that axis. With that said, total precipitation will likely be minimal, with the most likely hazard being locally gusty wind.

Friday will be another very hot day. Most models show temperatures as hot as today, but with some cloud cover around nudged the forecast slightly below NBM. Still, assuming decent clearing develops for at least part of the day, temperatures will be pushing 100 F for many areas, especially southeast OK. The Heat Advisory was expanded slightly with this update, to cover more of northeast OK, maintaining the rest of the existing footprint. CAMs seem to be increasing in confidence on the potential for some additional showers and storms Friday evening, likely with plenty of wind but minimal rainfall.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

For the next week the synoptic pattern will largely remain locked in place, with a persistent strong high centered across the southern Rockies. It will remain close enough to keep temperatures hot, with highs mostly in the mid 90s to low 100s. As this is largely a continuation of the pattern in place, Heat Advisories will likely be needed most days for at least part of the area.

With all of that said, the center of the previously mentioned high will remain just far enough west to allow for modest mid level flow and several transient weak shortwaves to pass through. This will keep a periodic risk of isolated showers and storms for the area for much of the next week. The excessively dry boundary layer will continue to limit rainfall potential. Beyond just enhancing the evaporation, this is where existing drought can start to feed back on itself. The lower quantity of boundary layer moisture makes it somewhat harder for storms to produce rainfall, as clouds must be lifted to a slightly higher altitude to achieve sufficient saturation. Additionally, the deeper boundary layer increases the wind potential. A few severe wind gusts may be possible with the stronger storms each day, which will occur off and on into at least early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight into Friday morning, with the eastern Oklahoma sites most likely to see any impacts from storms. Isolated storms may also develop late Friday afternoon and evening, but chances at any one site are too low to include in the TAF's.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 101 75 98 74 / 20 30 20 0 FSM 103 76 100 72 / 20 30 30 10 MLC 104 76 103 74 / 20 30 30 20 BVO 100 69 97 69 / 10 20 10 0 FYV 99 71 96 70 / 20 20 30 10 BYV 96 71 94 69 / 0 10 20 10 MKO 100 73 98 70 / 20 30 20 10 MIO 99 71 95 70 / 20 20 20 0 F10 102 73 101 72 / 30 30 30 10 HHW 103 76 102 74 / 10 30 30 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>057-059>062-064>068-070-071-073>075-172-176- 272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.