textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected through the week with a Heat Advisory for portions of eastern Oklahoma Wednesday.

- Low to medium rain chances return to the northern half of the area later Wednesday to Saturday morning, with the best chance late Thursday into Friday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Another mild but otherwise quiet night is on tap. Low temperatures will rise several degrees compared to last night, with most areas in the 70s to perhaps near 80 F for the Tulsa area. Cloud cover will gradually increase as a cold front approaches and stalls near the OK/KS border. A few showers and storms may form near the front, but should generally be restricted to far northern OK with only minor rainfall totals.

During the day Wednesday, warm and breezy southerly flow continues. High temperatures will be sensitive to the amount of cloud cover, but mid 90s to low 100s do look likely for the majority of the area. Dew points will likely remain a bit lower than typical given recent dry conditions, but will still marginally contribute to the heat index. Maintained the existing Heat Advisory Wednesday for portions of eastern Oklahoma where the heat index will reach 105 F or so during the afternoon. In terms of additional precipitation chances, CAMs do want to kick off some isolated showers and storms during the afternoon. All areas will have at least some chance, but the best chance will be in the higher terrain of northwest AR as well as areas north of I-40. Impacts will mostly be minimal, but locally gusty winds are possible near any storms.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Thursday once again looks quite hot, with afternoon highs again in the mid 90s to around 100 F. Dew points will marginally increase, so another Heat Advisory will probably need to be issued for portions of the forecast area. Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue, but it'll be isolated with no obvious forcing mechanisms. A somewhat better defined upper level shortwave will kick off showers and storms Thursday night into Friday, with perhaps the best chance of rain during the next week. for most areas coverage will remain isolated to scattered, with the best chance in northwest Arkansas. Some of these storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds, but flooding will not be a concern given the ongoing dry conditions.

Any storm activity will end by Saturday with the upper level ridge returning in full force. Afternoon highs will remain stable in the mid 90s to low 100s through the middle of next week. Ensemble guidance shows little to no chance of rain during this period. With continued southerly flow, moisture levels will gradually creep up, with heat products quite possible at times.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail through this forecast period. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms may develop early this morning near the OK/KS border with any aviation impacts likely brief. Additional afternoon showers and storms may also develop across a more broad region but coverage is expected to be low and not included in terminal forecasts at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 100 79 99 79 / 10 10 10 30 FSM 100 77 100 77 / 10 10 0 10 MLC 100 77 100 77 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 99 73 98 73 / 20 20 10 50 FYV 95 74 95 74 / 10 20 10 20 BYV 95 75 94 74 / 20 20 20 30 MKO 99 76 99 75 / 10 10 0 10 MIO 96 74 96 74 / 20 30 20 50 F10 101 76 100 76 / 10 10 0 10 HHW 98 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-064>067-070-071-073-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.