textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Near record to record warmth is expected through Tuesday.

- Fire weather concerns will increase Sunday through Tuesday.

- Unsettled weather is expected to return Tuesday night and persist into the latter half of the week. Locally heavy rainfall and some severe weather will be possible.

- Much cooler and more seasonable temperatures and dry weather are looking more probable by next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Not much going on weather-wise in the near term. Lots of sunshine is expected, with a few high clouds creeping into western AR from the remnants of Isaias. Another day of near record highs is expected, with readings in the low 90s most places. Winds will be light enough tonight for temps to dip in the sheltered valley locations.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Stronger southerly winds are expected Sunday and Monday as the gradient tightens over the region east of lee side low pressure. Lower dewpoints on Sunday in combination with the near record warmth and stronger winds will yield elevated fire weather danger across northeast Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas. A fire danger statement will likely be needed. Winds will be slightly stronger Monday, but dewpoints will be on the rise as well. High spread indices still suggest elevated fire weather danger will persist into Monday as well. The latest guidance suggests that record warmth is looking more probable on Tuesday ahead of a front dropping south over KS. Fire spread potential will be lower due to lessening wind but should be at least of some concern.

Shower and storm chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday in the vicinity of the front and in advance of an upper trough approaching from the west. Models have been struggling with the pattern evolution next week since it deals with the phasing of two different streams of the westerlies. A portion of the deterministic and ensemble data ejects the southern stream system northeast into the Plains by late next week while phasing with a northern stream trough diving southeast out of Canada. Some data holds some southern stream energy back to the west, with the northern stream energy effectively cutting off the system. The majority of the data shows a deep upper trough evolving over the eastern CONUS by the start of next weekend, however. The model blend forecast has the highest PoPs in the Wednesday into Thursday time frame as the front works its way through, decreasing toward the end of the week. This appears reasonable at this point. There will be potential for heavy rainfall with multiple rounds of rain and storms possible through that time in a plume of richer deep layer moisture streaming north from Mexico (possibly some moisture from Simon?). Also, if some of the model solutions such as the 12Z GFS are closer to verifying, the ejecting southern stream shortwave could increase severe weather potential over the Plains along/ahead of the front Wednesday into Thursday.

With the majority of the data developing a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS by next weekend, its looking more probable that much cooler and more seasonable temperatures will arrive along with a return to quieter weather.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period with high clouds moving across the region from the west overnight tonight into Sunday. Winds will back out of the south and southeast this evening before shifting and becoming gusty out of the southwest or south- southwest during the daytime on Sunday. Frequent gusts 20-25 knots will be common at most aerodromes. Brief LLWS may occur over KBVO, KTUL, and KRVS around sunrise Sunday, but overall confidence and duration are too low to included in their TAF at this time.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 64 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 61 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 62 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 59 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 59 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 59 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 61 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 60 88 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 F10 62 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 62 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.