textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1112 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- An extended period of hot and dry weather is expected to close out August and is likely to persist into the first part of September. The ongoing drought situation will worsen. Hot and windy conditions over the weekend and into next week will yield localized fire weather concerns each day.

- Temperatures will be a touch cooler today and Friday in some areas. There is a slight chance for afternoon storms over west- central Arkansas and neighboring east-central Oklahoma on Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The latest HRRR and RRFS show potential for at least isolated afternoon storms across west-central AR and east-central OK on Thursday, near the tail end of a weak front. Some low PoPs were added. Coverage should be much less that what was observed today. Outside of this, there is no precipitation expected for the remainder of the forecast. High temperatures will be a touch cooler behind the boundary across the north on Thursday.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The HRRR/RRFS suggest that highs will be back on the rise across eastern OK on Friday, so temps were raised a touch above the model blend (NBM) there. Ensemble and deterministic data continues to indicate that the H5 ridge currently over the Southwest will build over the region this weekend, with the ridge center eventually settling over the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys next week. Expect above average temps to continue. The latest data shows a tight gradient over the Plains over the weekend and into next week, so hot, dry and breezy afternoons are ahead. This will not help the ongoing drought situation, and fire weather concerns will likely exist at least locally each afternoon. Ensemble data shows some signal for isolated storms in the terrain by Tuesday or Wednesday, but coverage/confidence is certainly too low to mention and will not change the overall message.

The latest CPC outlook for week 2, which will include the Labor Day holiday weekend, suggests that warmer than average temps and below average precip is favored. No sign of fall is on the horizon yet.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Ongoing convection early this evening is expected to exit the CWA over the next couple of hours as a surface frontal boundary moves southeast through the region. Within the convection, gusty winds and brief heavy rain potential remains possible. Will continue Prob30 group for KFYV and KFSM for another hour. Otherwise, few to overcast mid and high clouds this evening should give way to few/scattered high clouds for tonight and Thursday morning. During the day Thursday few to scattered mid clouds are forecast to develop along with the passing high clouds. Low storm chances return Thursday afternoon parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, and for now will add a Prob30 group for KFSM. Wind through the majority of the period should vary between north and east. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 73 95 70 96 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 73 98 70 96 / 30 20 10 0 MLC 73 98 70 97 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 69 94 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 67 94 65 91 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 68 92 64 89 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 72 95 67 95 / 10 20 0 0 MIO 70 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 F10 71 95 68 96 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 72 96 71 99 / 20 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.