textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 - Grassland fire weather concerns today and again Saturday afternoon.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday gradually increase through Sunday.

- Unsettled weather pattern next week with multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. Potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday morning) Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Warm, dry and locally gusty conditions ongoing will maintain grassland fire weather concerns primarily NE OK into far NW AR. Conditions will improve with sunset. Moisture return will begin to increase tonight with high based convection possibly developing and persisting into Saturday morning. Overall coverage will likely be very low but these scenarios can be poorly handled within short term guidance so forecast will maintain a broad mention of low precip chances.

LONG TERM

(Saturday afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Unseasonably warm and breezy conditions will continue on Saturday,however humidity levels will have trended upward. Aggressive grassland fire behavior could still develop as dense dormant fuels remain plentiful. Any early day high based convection may not entirely fade and low chances for storms will persist into Saturday afternoon. The trend late Saturday night into Sunday will be for any precip to focus along the slowly advancing cold front with higher chances for northern locations. A sharp temperature gradient is expected within the frontal zone and the boundary is likely to stall through the day and possibly drift northward through day.

The frontal evolution remains a forecast challenge through Monday with any small location differences resulting in a notable change in observed conditions. Trends continue for lesser precip coverage on Monday and generally across northern portions of the forecast area.

The pattern aloft will become more unsettled by mid week and the aforementioned frontal zone is likely to lift northward with the warm sector becoming more moist with time. The result being periodic shower and thunderstorm chances which should provide a larger footprint of beneficial rains. Additionally, there may be periods where severe weather potential increases.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period for all sites. Southwest winds strengthen during the afternoon hours, particularly across NE OK and NW AR sites. Winds become light tonight, though LLWS develops late overnight across NE OK sites. Sfc winds increase again late Saturday morning through the afternoon, with gusts up to 20 kts. SCT to BKN mid clouds develop tonight through tomorrow, with a low chance of showers late in the forecast period. Precipitation potential remains less than 30 percent, so opted not to include rain mention in TAFs at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 50 81 50 71 / 10 20 20 40 FSM 48 81 52 72 / 0 10 20 50 MLC 53 81 56 77 / 10 20 30 30 BVO 45 80 43 64 / 10 20 20 50 FYV 48 78 49 70 / 10 20 20 50 BYV 50 76 47 63 / 10 20 20 60 MKO 51 79 53 73 / 10 20 30 40 MIO 49 76 44 63 / 10 20 20 60 F10 53 80 54 76 / 10 20 30 40 HHW 51 78 55 78 / 0 10 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.