textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Well above normal temperatures Wednesday.

- Unsettled pattern begins with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday evening through Thursday night. A few stronger storms possible Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

- Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normal this weekend and into early next week.

- Increasing rain chances again early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1004 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Weak frontal boundary stationed near the Red River late this evening with a slightly cooler airmass residing over the local forecast area, after a day of record warmth across western AR and southeast OK. Lows tonight will be notably cooler in most areas, but still above normal.

Rich low level moisture remains in place across TX and will begin to return back north in response to approaching upper low presently off the southern CA coast. Expectation remains for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to begin spreading into mainly southeast OK by late Wed afternoon, with increasing coverage through the evening with a strengthening low level jet.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1004 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Coverage and intensity of precip increases into Thursday. While instability looks fairly limited, increasingly strong deep layer wind fields will support a low-end threat of severe storms both Wed night and Thursday, especially south of I-40 in closer proximity to the frontal boundary which lifts back north.

Deep moisture will continue to spread north with precipitable water nearing record levels anticipated by Thursday, with stronger forcing spreading east resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms with potential for quite heavy rain rates in any thunderstorms. The result is likely widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3" and some locally greater amounts. Flash flood threat is likely to remain localized due to antecedent dry conditions, but he high rates could certainly lead to flooding of smaller streams and urban areas.

Bulk of the precip should move east by late Thursday and Friday as upper wave moves east and a cold front moves through. Temps will be cooler for the weekend but still several degrees above normal. Another upper low on track to impact the region early next week with additional widespread showers and a few thunderstorms resulting in locally heavy rainfall.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, although clouds will be thickening and lowering with time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may affect mainly the northeast Oklahoma sites by mid to late evening, with showers and storms becoming more widespread across the entire area overnight. Ceilings and visibilities will be reduced in storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 60 70 58 / 0 60 90 90 FSM 79 63 72 61 / 10 60 90 90 MLC 82 64 73 60 / 20 70 90 90 BVO 71 55 68 54 / 0 60 80 90 FYV 76 60 70 58 / 0 60 100 100 BYV 72 58 67 58 / 0 60 100 100 MKO 77 62 70 59 / 10 60 90 90 MIO 70 57 67 58 / 0 70 90 100 F10 77 62 70 58 / 10 70 90 90 HHW 82 64 73 60 / 20 80 90 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.