textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- Very cold this morning with wind chills in the teens and single digits. Another hard freeze is expected Monday night/Tuesday morning.

- Despite cold afternoon temperatures, low relative humidities and breezy northwest winds promote elevated fire weather conditions Monday afternoon.

- Significant warming trend Tuesday through this weekend, with well above average temperatures by mid to late week. Precipitation unlikely for several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Winter decided to pay us a visit again today, with temperatures starting out this morning in the 20s or upper 10s for much of the area. Morning wind chills will be even lower, likely in the teens or single digits, as the northwesterly breeze persists. Despite mostly sunny skies, temperatures are unlikely to recover much this afternoon, likely held in the upper 30s/40s. Much drier air will be in place today as well, leading to min RH values mostly in the 15-25% range. Thus, fire weather will again be a concern for much of the CWA as northwest winds gust 20-30 mph this afternoon. Winds decrease by this evening.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Another hard freeze is expected areawide Monday night/Tuesday morning as high pressure slides east over the region. Southerly flow will return during the day Tuesday, quickly warming things back up into the 50s and 60s. With dry air still in place and winds gusting to 25 mph, fire weather concerns will persist on Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each day through the end of the week as SW CONUS ridging intensifies and expands into the region. By Friday and Saturday, highs in the mid- upper 80s are forecast, with some locations potentially eclipsing 90 degrees. This is 20 to 30 degrees above average for this time of year. Most models hint at a frontal intrusion early next week, likely cooling things off somewhat. Dry weather is probable over the next several days, and fire weather potential will continue to be the main concern through the period. Long range guidance suggests a pattern change may take place by late month... perhaps opening the door for more active weather and precipitation chances again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Gusty winds continue today with clear skies and VFR conditions. Winds decrease after sunset and remain light through Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 42 25 62 46 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 41 24 58 41 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 43 25 60 45 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 41 20 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 36 19 53 41 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 35 20 51 43 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 41 23 59 44 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 37 20 55 43 / 0 0 0 0 F10 43 24 61 46 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 44 27 58 42 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.