textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Hot and humid weather persists through the week. Heat advisory headlines are in effect today for parts of the area, and may be needed in the days following.

- Low chances for afternoon storms in the terrain of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today through Saturday spreading into the rest of the forecast area by Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The forecast generally remains consistent with previous days. Hot weather continues to be the main theme, with the most impactful heat likely within the Arkansas River Valley from Fort Smith eastward. Here, heat indices will once again warm to near or above 105 degrees and a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM this evening. A slightly weaker and more eastward mid-upper level ridge allows some better moisture to work into the area within southeasterly flow today. This may be enough to allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, particularly across the higher terrain areas of SE OK and NW AR through 8 PM. Any storms may produce locally gusty and erratic winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. With loss of daytime heating, convection is likely to decrease quickly this evening. Quiet conditions are likely tonight with light southeast winds persisting. Low temperatures will be similar to last night, mostly in the 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Hot and humid weather will continue to be the headline through the extended period. The ridge remains centered over the southeastern U.S. Friday into Saturday, before weakening and rebuilding across the southern Rockies by early next week. Sensible weather will change very little through this weekend, though a modest increase in temperatures and humidity over the next couple days may provide expanding coverage of 105+ degree heat indices. At this time, coverage of advisory-level heat looks too marginal to issue another advisory for Friday and would prefer to allow the night shift to take another look after seeing how today performed.

Ahead of a weak frontal boundary approaching from the north, Independence Day may end up being the hottest day of the forecast period with the highest potential for heat indices above 105 degrees. We will have to see how preceding days behave, but a larger Heat Advisory may become required, especially considering the increase in outdoor activities and additional heat exposure. Please be mindful of the heat this holiday weekend and take appropriate actions to reduce potential heat stress and/or illness while celebrating.

Diurnal pulse convection will be possible again Friday and Saturday, with preference across the higher terrain of SE OK and NW AR. Coverage will tend to remain isolated to widely scattered, which results in PoPs mainly between 10-30 percent. The environment will continue to support downdrafts capable of producing locally gusty winds at the surface, as well as cloud-to- ground lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Highest storm potential occurs between 2 and 8 PM.

Periodic weakness in upper level heights next week may provide some modest relief from the heat Sunday onward. The main change will be in the form of increasing precipitation potential. This is particularly true Sunday through Tuesday as the aforementioned frontal boundary hangs around the region and weak troughing develops overhead. While rain/storm chances are generally higher through this period, this pattern will continue to favor a highly variable rainfall footprint and wetting rains for any one location are not a guarantee. The increase in cloud cover and any precipitation will help keep temperatures in check, though an increase in sfc dewpoints may tend to offset this. Regardless of how the specifics play out, typical summer weather will continue through next week with heat and periodic storm chances being the primary weather hazards.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may remain in the vicinity of KMLC for the first hour or two of the forecast period before dissipating. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are again expected Friday afternoon, but the chances at any one site are too low to mention at this point in time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 77 94 78 96 / 0 10 10 0 FSM 75 94 77 95 / 10 20 10 20 MLC 75 93 77 94 / 10 20 10 10 BVO 73 93 73 95 / 0 10 0 10 FYV 72 90 72 91 / 10 20 10 20 BYV 72 91 72 91 / 10 20 10 20 MKO 74 92 75 94 / 10 10 10 10 MIO 73 92 74 93 / 10 10 0 10 F10 74 93 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 HHW 73 91 74 93 / 10 20 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.