textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1145 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- A storm system will bring a Slight Risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall to the area today (Tuesday) into Wednesday.

- A strong cold front arrives Wednesday and a light freeze may occur for a few areas in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Thursday morning.

- Potentially limited fire weather concerns periodically through the second half of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Tranquil weather is anticipated to prevail through at least daybreak Tuesday morning. A potent upper-level low, with robust lift and vorticity ahead of the trough axis, will move onshore over northwest Mexico in the next few hours. Will be monitoring for a few elevated showers and thunderstorms developing around sunrise Tuesday morning as a weak piece of energy aloft ejects off the low and pushes ahead it. As it drifts over southeast OK, a few showers and thunderstorm may develop from this feature, with convection moving into west-central AR around sunrise. The GFS has been a persistent outlier in developing more robust convection from this feature that really no other short-range model shows. Therefore, forecast confidence of the GFS verifying is low, but will maintain non-zero (20-30%) PoPs for portions of southeast OK and west-central AR starting around 12z/7am. If a storm is able to get organized, it will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Precipitation chances are expected to wind down by mid-late morning, with mostly dry weather into early afternoon.

Latest forecast models are in slightly better agreement with the severe weather and excessive rain setup Tuesday afternoon, evening, and through the remainder of the short-term period. Southwest flow will strengthen through the daytime Tuesday as the aforementioned upper-level low approaches the area from the west. Deep moisture will rapidly surge into the area from the south, with dewpoints rising between 65-70 F across southeast OK and western AR in the afternoon. A complex of showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in southwest TX by early-mid afternoon, quickly moving into northeast TX by mid-late afternoon. Assuming this verifies, guidance seems to indicate this complex may sideswipe portions of far southeast OK and west-central AR, with the bulk of any severe thunderstorm potential remaining south and east of the forecast area. Will need to monitor this trend closely, as a slightly northern shift would introduce a severe thunderstorm threat for parts of southeast OK and west-central AR. Otherwise, much of Tuesday afternoon will remain dry, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.

More robust and surface-based thunderstorm development will occur across west TX, along and just ahead of a dryline/Pacific cold front, by mid-afternoon. These storms in TX will cluster and eventually a QLCS line of storms will form by early evening. As the upper-level low drifts farther east, this line of strong and severe storms will move east-northeast across northern and central TX through the evening and overnight hours. Hi-res model guidance has this line of storm expanding and spreading northward some with time, with storms impacting mainly southeast OK sometime around midnight Tuesday night. The QLCS is forecast to hold strong and will move into west-central AR after midnight, but before sunrise Wednesday. All severe hazards will be possible with this line of storms, including a couple of tornadoes, but large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. Although hi- res guidance keeps the highest potential for severe storms south of I-40 Tuesday night, a few models still show isolated to scattered thunderstorms drifting north of I-40 Tuesday evening/night. All severe hazards will be possible if storms are able to maintain themselves. Corridors of heavy rainfall are likely, especially across southeast OK into northwest AR, where locally a few inches could fall under stronger storms. But overall, rainfall amounts will stay around 1 to 2 inches, locally higher, across southeast OK and northwest AR, with lighter amounts north of I-40.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Precipitation is expected to move out of the area Wednesday morning or early on in the afternoon as a fairly strong cold front pushes through the region. Winds will be pretty gusty behind the front, with anticipated gusts 30 to 35 mph at times, through much of the daytime before subsiding early in the evening. The frontal boundary will be noticeable as temperatures fall into the 50s or lower 60s behind it. Most locations will see their daily high temperature before noon Wednesday. High pressure settles into the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with light winds and clear skies. Fog potential may increase Wednesday night for at least a portion of the area. A light freeze is possible for areas near the OK/KS and MO/AR borders Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

Southerly winds return and will pickup on Thursday as high pressure exits east and surface low develops in the High Plains. The pressure gradient will remain tight Thursday night into early Friday morning, maintaining breezy winds. Warm, dry, and periodic breezy weather will continue through the rest of the work week and into Saturday, with perhaps some limited fire weather potential on the breezier days.

Next best potential for precipitation will come on Sunday as another upper-level trough and associated cold front push southward across the Plains. At this time, best precipitation chances look to stay confined to eastern portions of the forecast area along the cold front that will be passing through Sunday morning into early afternoon. More details to come later.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Expect a gradual increase in coverage of MVFR cigs across SE OK into NW AR toward Tuesday morning. Cigs gradually climb to low-end VFR by afternoon. NE OK sites expected to stay VFR. Tstorm chances increase aft 03Z as a storm system approaches. South winds will be gusty at times through the period, with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 84 57 60 37 / 30 70 40 0 FSM 82 63 69 39 / 50 80 70 0 MLC 80 61 67 38 / 50 90 40 0 BVO 86 50 57 31 / 30 70 40 0 FYV 80 58 64 34 / 40 80 70 0 BYV 79 58 65 36 / 20 80 70 0 MKO 80 57 64 36 / 30 80 50 0 MIO 81 53 59 34 / 20 80 70 0 F10 81 57 64 36 / 30 80 30 0 HHW 77 61 69 41 / 60 80 60 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.