textproduct: Tulsa
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
- A few showers/storms remain possible through Monday across parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
- A brief period of cooler weather is expected through early this week before temperatures warm again above average.
- Low thunderstorm chances return towards the end of the week along with hot and humid weather.
SHORT TERM
(Through tonight ) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and tonight mainly across far southeast Oklahoma as an upper trough moves across the area. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through tonight, with overnight lows mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
LONG TERM
(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
A closed upper low will develop over northern Arkansas Monday, resulting in isolated mainly afternoon and early evening convection from parts of southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This system will then move east of the area by Tuesday, with dry weather then expected through Thursday. After near normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will warm above normal by Wednesday and Thursday, and afternoon heat index values will climb into the triple digits. The NBM still looks a bit aggressive with the warming, and some downward trend in both daytime and nighttime temperatures may occur in future forecasts for Thursday and Friday. At least low rain chances will return Thursday night into the first part of next weekend with the approach of a weak frontal boundary.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the period for all sites. There is a slight (10-20%) chance of a few additional showers or thunderstorms near KFSM and KMLC but this is too low to include in the TAFs. Near any storms ceilings could fall to 3-5 kft with gusty winds and sporadic lightning. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny conditions will prevail with mostly light north to northeast winds.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 73 94 72 94 / 0 20 10 10 MLC 70 93 70 93 / 20 10 10 10 BVO 68 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 67 89 65 89 / 0 10 10 10 BYV 68 87 65 88 / 0 10 10 10 MKO 71 92 70 92 / 0 10 10 0 MIO 69 89 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 F10 70 92 69 92 / 10 10 0 0 HHW 72 93 71 93 / 20 10 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None. AR...None.
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