textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1219 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Light showers and patchy drizzle will linger through this afternoon, mainly across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

- Temperatures near or below seasonal averages through the upcoming weekend. - Rain chances increase on Thursday with another cold frontal passage; mostly dry weather is forecast Friday and through the remainder of the forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1219 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The cold front that brought widespread convection and severe weather overnight has cleared eastern Oklahoma and is currently pushing eastward through northwest Arkansas. A few lingering light elevated showers and drizzle will continue to wrap around the center of the upper low through this afternoon, shifting eastward with time. Much of this light precipitation is anticipated to fall across northeast OK and far northwest AR. Visible satellite shows scattered to broken clouds continuing to move through the area on the backside of the passing low. Breezy northwest winds around 15 to 20 mph and higher gusts will persist through the afternoon, ushering in a much drier airmass. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies.

Heading into tonight, the parent upper-level trough will lift into the Midwest as surface high pressure builds south across the Southern Plains. Surface winds will decouple after sunset, becoming mainly light and variable or light out of the west overnight. Skies will begin to clear from southwest to northeast through the night, lingering over far northwest AR into Wednesday morning. Expect overnight lows to drop into the lower to mid-40s across most valley locations, with upper 40s persisting along ridge tops and urban areas.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1219 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Zonal to weak split flow aloft takes hold Wednesday, keeping weather quiet, mostly sunny, and pleasant across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Afternoon highs Wednesday will reach the mid-to-upper 60s to near 70 degrees, right around seasonal averages.

A weak shortwave trough will clip the region on Thursday and will help push another surface cold front through the forecast area. High-res and global deterministic models depict somewhat limited moisture return ahead of this wave, with the National Blend of Models (NBM) showing medium-high PoPs(40-80%)/low-QPF primarily across northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma Thursday morning/afternoon. Any precipitation will remain light and scattered (generally a tenth to quarter of an inch), followed quickly by another reinforcing shot of dry, seasonably cool air Thursday night into Friday.

For the weekend through next Tuesday, consensus in model guidance favor broad mid-level ridging building across the central CONUS. Surface high pressure will slowly slide eastward, allowing light southerly return flow to redevelop by Sunday into early next week. This will support a gradual moderating trend in temperatures, with afternoon highs warming into the low to mid-70s and overnight lows comfortably in the 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday/Tuesday night. Overall, high- impact weather remains unlikely through the entirety of the extended period.

Mejia

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR cigs will continue to filter back into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon in the wake of a frontal boundary. Winds will gradually veer from southwesterly to westerly to northwesterly through the period from west to east respectively. CLouds should begin to clear from west to east overnight tonight for E OK sites and then by mid morning tomorrow for NW AR sites.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 67 46 67 45 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 72 50 68 46 / 20 10 0 0 MLC 67 46 69 44 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 66 42 66 39 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 69 41 64 36 / 30 10 0 0 BYV 71 47 64 46 / 40 20 0 0 MKO 68 46 67 43 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 65 48 64 42 / 50 10 0 0 F10 66 45 68 44 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 71 48 70 46 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.