textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue the next several days. While any thunderstorm will produce heavy rains, Saturday night is expected to have the greatest potential for excessive rainfall over a larger area.

- After the several rounds of rain and storms, the flood threat near creeks and streams will increase Saturday into Sunday.

- Rain and thunderstorm coverage will decrease on Sunday, but the chance of rainfall will continue, especially in southeast Oklahoma.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Cluster of thunderstorms continues ahead of a weak frontal boundary moving across northeast OK. Environment continues to support a low-end threat of downburst winds tonight, and most data suggests a potential uptick in coverage of storms later tonight favored along and south of I-40 . Flooding potential also will exist with PWAT values 1.5-1.8 inches analyzed through the local area.

Rain and storm coverage is expected to wane through the early part of Friday as the front basically washes out. Temperatures should be slightly cooler but it will remain humid.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Complex of storms potentially makes a run at northeast OK and northwest AR late Friday night, but the Saturday night into Sunday time frame continues to be indicated as the period with highest potential for more widespread heavy rainfall. During this time a more significant cold front is forecast to push through the Central Plains toward the local area, with widespread showers and thunderstorms developing across southern KS into northern OK, with both a threat of severe weather and excessive rainfall. Latest suite of guidance continues to point toward northeast OK as the more favored area for heavy rain, locally several inches possible. A flood watch may ultimately be needed as this region has seen recent heavy rainfall with some ongoing river flooding as well. After a hot an humid day Saturday, temperatures will be notably cooler to start next week.

Overall rain and storm chances will decrease during the early part of next week with a period of below normal temperatures before more typical early summer conditions return. Storm chances may increase again later next week as well.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Overall, a very low-confidence and somewhat complicated aviation forecast over the next 24 hours. A complex of storms continues to shift south and east of the TAF sites at this hour. Left in VCTS at KMLC through 13Z as thunderstorm exit the terminal space. Will continue to monitor. Patchy low-level clouds may develop over the next couple of hours, mainly north of I-40, though confidence is low on duration and coverage. Latest hi-res guidance shows additional storms developing along a warm front as it lifts northward this afternoon and evening. At this time, it appears only NE OK terminals will have the highest potential for TSRA for a few hours late this afternoon or early this evening. Another complex of storms is forecast to develop over the High Plains region early- mid evening will push ESE through the night. Still lots of uncertainty if this complex will survive as it moves into NE OK. Included PROB30 groups at KBVO, KTUL, and KRVS to show this possibility. Low-level clouds may develop again overnight tonight and into Saturday morning. Winds are expected to stay light and variable this morning, then turning more southerly or southeasterly and staying fairly light this afternoon behind the passing warm front.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 86 75 92 69 / 10 10 30 100 FSM 88 75 92 74 / 40 10 20 90 MLC 88 76 91 74 / 40 10 0 90 BVO 85 72 92 66 / 0 30 60 100 FYV 86 72 88 69 / 10 20 40 90 BYV 84 69 87 67 / 10 30 60 100 MKO 85 73 89 70 / 20 10 10 100 MIO 85 70 89 66 / 0 40 60 100 F10 86 73 90 69 / 30 10 10 90 HHW 87 75 91 75 / 60 10 10 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.