textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 - A slight uptick in fire weather concerns tomorrow, mainly northeast Oklahoma, in response to increased southerly winds, warmer temperatures and only a modest increase in dew points.

- Widespread rainfall focused in the Friday night into Saturday evening time frame, with low chance for excessive rainfall impacts.

- Increased fire weather concerns Monday into Tuesday, with well above normal temperatures and windy conditions, especially parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Cooler, albeit still above normal, conditions are ongoing behind yesterday's cold frontal passage. With the surface high still sitting to the north of the area, northerly winds persist areawide, at fairly light speeds. Winds will begin to shift to the south late tonight as the high moves off to the east. Overnight lows have been adjusted downward a couple of degrees, more toward the MOS numbers given the expectation of lighter winds and only modest cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Limited fire weather concerns develop tomorrow, focused in parts of northeast Oklahoma, with temperatures expected to be around 7 to 10 degrees warmer than this afternoon and the aforementioned return of southerly winds only spurring a slight increase in dew point. Afternoon relative humidities should largely be in the 30 to 35 percent range across this area, in the presence of already dry fuels.

The focus will shift to the well-advertised potential for widespread rainfall spreading from west to east beginning Friday night, continuing into Saturday, before ending Saturday night. A large and slow-moving upper level trough will move onto the West Coast tomorrow into tomorrow night, with southwest flow aloft over the Southern Plains. The increase in moisture as early as Friday will lead to isolated to scattered shower potential during the day, but coverage is expected to substantially increase Friday night in response to the development of a strong low level jet. Forecast precipitable water values are near climatological maxima during the time frame, which should provide for efficient rainfall. Given the dry antecedent conditions, flooding impacts should largely be minimized, except in local areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential, largely elevated, will also exist, with very low but nonzero potential for strong to severe storms mainly into southeast Oklahoma and possibly, west central Arkansas on Saturday. The upper level system will finally shift east of the area Sunday morning, with perhaps low shower chances lingering into the day Sunday before it finally completely clears the area.

Conditions will remain seasonably warm on Sunday behind the departing system, with upper level ridging quickly retaking hold across the region. Well above normal temperatures will make a return Monday, increasing further on Tuesday as strong west to southwesterly 850 flow develops. The combination of the gusty winds that this leads to and the reduced relative humidities will lead to elevated fire weather concerns on Tuesday, primarily across parts of northeast Oklahoma which, despite some model uncertainty, should be closest to the low level jet and the stronger wind gusts.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the next 24 hours, with mostly scattered or broken mid to high clouds. Few to scattered low clouds may develop over far northwest AR early-mid Thursday morning that may impact KXNA and KROG, but confidence is too low to mention cigs in the TAFs for now. Winds become light and calm after sunset, then become southerly tomorrow, with occasional gusts to 20 kts possible.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 39 68 44 69 / 0 0 10 40 FSM 39 68 43 70 / 0 0 10 30 MLC 39 70 48 73 / 0 0 10 40 BVO 32 67 38 68 / 0 10 10 30 FYV 34 64 41 68 / 0 0 10 30 BYV 36 62 40 66 / 0 0 10 20 MKO 40 67 45 68 / 0 0 10 40 MIO 37 63 42 68 / 0 10 10 20 F10 39 70 46 70 / 0 0 10 40 HHW 41 68 48 72 / 0 0 10 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.