textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1155 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Moderate rain/low storm (non-severe) chances linger tonight into Wednesday, mainly south of I-40.

- An unsettled weather pattern is expected starting Thursday and continuing into the upcoming weekend. Multiple opportunities for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Low to medium (30-60%) rain chances will continue across portions of southeast OK through the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. The overall impact with this light to moderate rain should remain limited at worst, with only light rainfall accumulations. Lightning has been very spotty and mostly confined along and south of the Red River. Expect this to persist through the remainder of the day and evening. Recent visible satellite imagery shows a plethora of low-level cloud cover spreading northward. The cloud cover and rain have kept temperatures unseasonably cool, especially south of I-40, with temperatures running closer to average near/north of the periphery of the cloud deck.

Higher resolution CAMs suggest a very brief lull in precipitation by early-mid evening, but isolated to scattered showers pick right back up overnight, mainly across far southeast OK as a secondary mid-level impulse slides across the Red River area. Impacts stay very low. Otherwise, tonight will be slightly more mild than last night, with overnight lows generally in the low-mid 50s under mostly cloudy skies and light south/southeast winds.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Scattered light to moderate (with pockets of heavy) rain showers may be ongoing across far southeast OK and west-central AR at the start of the long-term as a weak mid-level impulse begins making its exit to the east. Rain chances and impacts will stay low for portions of southeast OK and northwest AR through midday or so before chances shut off. Mainly pleasant weather conditions are expected to dominate through the second half of the day Wednesday.

A very active weather pattern will commence Thursday and persist through the upcoming weekend, beginning with a robust mid/upper- level trough ejecting off the Rockies and moving over the Plains during the daytime Thursday. A surface low will develop and strengthen Thursday morning over the High Plains with a sharpening dryline positioning itself across southern KS and western OK by the afternoon. Best dynamics and upper-level support for thunderstorms are expected to remain north and west of the forecast area, closer to the upper low and surface cold front. Medium-range models have been persistent in showing a strong capping inversion holding in place across much of OK. Thus, most models show a low chance of storms firing off the dryline in the afternoon. If one or few storms are able to develop and break the cap, supercell thunderstorms (capable of all hazards) are expected to form in a fairly volatile storm environment, likely sustaining themselves into eastern OK by late afternoon or early evening. Will continue to monitor for this scenario closely. Will keep in some low mentionable PoPs (15-20%) during the afternoon to cover for the potential of warm air advection showers and elevated storms. Better storm/severe chances, at least for northeast OK and far northwest AR, will arrive late Thursday night into Friday morning as a secondary upper-level wave and surface cold front approach from the northwest. Latest thinking is a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will from along the frontal boundary early-mid Thursday evening in central/southern KS and will push southeastward into northeast OK during the overnight hours. The capping inversion looks to remain in place as the storms push into the area, suggesting damaging wind gusts and large hail as the primary hazards. However, any weakness in the inversion may cause a limited tornado threat with modest low-level shear in place, especially along the leading edge of storms. Heavy rainfall is also anticipated with the line of storms, with highest flooding threat north of Highway 412 in northeast OK and northwest AR. Greatest rainfall amounts will range from 0.5 to 1 inch, but local amounts around 2 inches will be possible into Friday morning.

The cold front will slowly push into northeast OK and stall near or just south of the I-44 corridor Friday morning. A very moist and unstable environment will remain in place ahead of the frontal boundary Friday. Evolution of the convection from the morning storms and storm initiation in the afternoon ahead of the front make for a very complex scenario on Friday. General idea is any lingering storms near or ahead of the stalled boundary and/or new storm initiation in the afternoon will become surface-based in the afternoon, though exact location(s) of greatest threat is still uncertain at this time and will highly depend on location of the front. The front is expected to sag south into southeast OK Friday afternoon/evening before stalling again Friday night into Saturday morning. Severe potential will continue into Saturday, especially near/ahead of the frontal boundary. Better details to come. At this time, Sunday has the most consistent setup potential for widespread significant severe thunderstorms developing, especially if the 00z ECMWF is correct, as the stalled frontal boundary lifts northward and a shortwave trough pivots over the Southern Plains. All severe hazards will be possible Sunday, but timing and exact coverage is still uncertain. Better details to come in the next few days. Temperatures look to remain near seasonal to just above seasonal average through much of the extended period.

Mejia

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Low ceilings and gusty winds will be the main aviation issues through midday tomorrow. MVFR ceilings have already overspread MLC/TUL/RVS and should expand into BVO in the next couple of hours. Satellite trends indicate these same ceilings expanding eastward into the W AR sites also, with a reduction there likely to be quicker than advertised by most guidance sources. Ceilings will lower to IFR at the E OK sites tonight and likely remain that way through the end of the period. Gusty southwest winds this afternoon will decrease with sunset, with a low but non- mentionable potential for additional gustiness late morning tomorrow. Light rain/showers will largely remain south of the terminals, although at times may be close to MLC/FSM this afternoon and also tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 57 74 64 80 / 0 0 10 20 FSM 53 76 61 83 / 10 20 10 20 MLC 54 75 64 80 / 20 20 10 20 BVO 54 74 60 80 / 0 0 10 20 FYV 50 74 59 79 / 0 10 10 20 BYV 51 74 59 79 / 0 10 0 20 MKO 55 72 62 78 / 10 10 10 20 MIO 55 72 61 78 / 0 0 0 20 F10 55 72 64 79 / 10 10 10 20 HHW 54 72 62 78 / 40 30 10 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.