textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Light rainfall amounts for southeast Oklahoma and areas of sprinkles further north into early Saturday.

- Temps below normal through Saturday then a warming trend.

- Thunderstorm chances return for the first part of the work week. Some severe weather potential will exist with details refined in later forecasts.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Near persistent trends will continue through Friday with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals. Primary corridor of rain will remain well south of the of the forecast area with only a low chance of light amounts near the Red River counties. Strong shortwave trough does rotate across the region by Friday night and most guidance does depict patchy light precip amounts through the forecast area from Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. Fcst soundings support mid level convection is possible however very dry sub cloud layers persist. A brief shower and maybe a thunderstorm into NE OK is possible Friday evening, but overall the chance for measurable precip continues to look very low. Forecast will include areas of sprinkles and a low chance of light rain showers with overall weather impact expected to be nil.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Pleasant early May weekend ahead with mild temps and clearing skies on Saturday. Southerly winds become gusty at times Sunday marking the start of a warming trend.

Good agreement on the timing for the next wave to influence the region for early next week. Expectation is preceding warm advection wing will increase shower and storm chances Monday night into Tuesday morning ahead of the cold front passage and continued chance of storms through Tuesday afternoon. Overall coverage within both precip regimes is more uncertain. Sufficient instability and shear profiles may develop to support a window of severe weather potential. Temps warm to nearer normal ahead of the frontal passage followed by a return to cooler and drier weather for mid to late next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Mainly quiet aviation conditions are expected through the period. Winds will generally be light out of the northeast to east- northeast. Speeds will also generally be low except for a few gusts to 10-15 kts during the afternoon. Scattered mid clouds will persist through the periods with thick high clouds, but generally at or above 10 kft. A few low clouds could develop for KFSM or KMLC but generally with limited coverage. No rain is expected, but a few sprinkles could occur in the south.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 69 47 70 48 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 71 46 72 45 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 70 45 73 47 / 10 10 0 0 BVO 69 42 70 43 / 0 20 0 0 FYV 68 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 65 42 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 68 44 69 45 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 65 42 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 F10 68 45 70 47 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 66 46 71 46 / 20 20 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.