textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Storm chances increase areawide Wednesday as another storm system moves over the region. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty downburst winds are possible, but organized severe weather is unlikely.

- Low-medium afternoon thunderstorm chances continue Thursday and Friday.

- Drier and hotter conditions return by this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Widely scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the overnight hours, especially across western Arkansas, as a weak mid level disturbance tracks westward toward the region. Severe weather is not expected with this activity, just some brief downpours and lightning will be the primary concern through sunrise. Some patchy fog may also occur across southeast Oklahoma through the early morning hours before rain chances begin to increase in this area.

The wave will move into the local region through the day Wednesday, with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the afternoon hours. Increasing deep layer moisture will lead primarily to a locally heavy rain threat with isolated instances of flash flooding possible owing to the relatively slow storm motions. Deep layer shear will remain fairly weak, limiting the organized severe potential, but some stronger updrafts could produce locally strong downburst wind gusts upwards of 50 mph. Storm coverage will wane after sunset, but there will still be some lingering showers and storms into the evening. Increased cloud cover and storm activity will keep temps near to slightly below normal for Wednesday.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Additional, diurnal scattered thunderstorm chances will continue Thursday afternoon as the mid level trough axis and deep moisture profiles remain in the vicinity. Less coverage of storms is expected by Friday afternoon as heights rise and upper level ridging builds into the Southern Plains. Still, some isolated afternoon showers and storms will be possible, especially across southeast Oklahoma. Temperatures remain near normal through Friday. Upper ridging then really expands into the region through the weekend into early next week. The result will be drier and warmer conditions as temperatures rise back above normal into the mid and upper 90s. Humidity levels will remain elevated through the period as well and heat headline potential will again be on the rise by early next week as the more extreme heat builds over the area. some guidance begins to retrograde the ridge back to the west toward the middle and end of next week which could bring a return of rain chances and take a bite out of the extreme heat for a bit. But confidence is low in the expected evolution of the ridge much beyond the current forecast range.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions will be predominant outside of shower and storm activity through this TAF period. There is a chance of light MVFR fog at KMLC, but increasing cloud from the east casts some uncertainty as to whether it will happen. There is a small chance of showers at the NW AR sites over the next 6 to 8 hours. The greatest coverage will be from midday through early evening. Coverage will be high enough over NW AR to warrant prevailing shower mention, with some prob30 for thunder and lower vsbys. Some chance may linger there into the evening thru about 04Z. The latest guidance suggests things should be quiet areawide after that time.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 73 91 75 93 / 20 10 10 10 FSM 72 91 73 93 / 20 10 10 10 MLC 71 90 73 91 / 30 20 10 10 BVO 71 90 73 93 / 20 10 0 10 FYV 68 86 70 89 / 30 40 10 10 BYV 68 85 70 89 / 40 40 10 10 MKO 70 88 72 90 / 20 10 0 10 MIO 70 88 72 91 / 30 30 10 10 F10 70 89 71 90 / 20 10 0 10 HHW 70 88 71 89 / 20 20 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.