textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Fire weather concerns will remain heightened this afternoon and Saturday due to gusty winds and low relative humidity behind dry frontal passages.

- Several mostly dry cold fronts are expected during the next week, with below normal temperatures favored Saturday through Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The cold front has passed through the region this morning, with gusty northwesterly winds developing through the afternoon as mixing deepens. Much drier surface air is filtering into northeast Oklahoma currently and will continue to push southeastward through the region. This will allow an uptick in fire weather conditions, especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma where humidity will be lowest and winds strongest this afternoon. A zone of synoptic lift associated with a passing upper jet has led to an increase in cloud cover over the area and a sprinkle or two will be possible through the afternoon. However, the very dry sub cloud layer and high cloud bases will likely lead to evaporation of an precip that does manage to develop, so will continue to keep out of mention for now. A colder night, with lows mostly in the 20s is expected tonight as winds die down somewhat.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The forecast remains largely unchanged from previous versions as the pattern remain consistent through much of the next week with western CONUS ridging and deep cyclonic flow east of the Rockies. A series of generally dry frontal passages will continue with another cold front pushing through early Saturday. The air mass will be much cooler and even drier with this frontal push. A cold and blustery day is in store for Saturday with highs in the 30s to low 40s and gusty northwesterly winds keeping wind chills in the 20s across most of the region. A few flurries or sprinkles will once again be possible as another shortwave disturbance moves around the west side of the parent trough. Better chances will remain west of the forecast area though where better forcing will reside. A relatively strong Canadian high will settle over the region Saturday night, providing good radiational cooling conditions. Widespread lows in the teens are expected with the more sheltered locations possibly dropping into the single digits.

Temperatures rebound nicely by Sunday afternoon as the surface high shifts southeast and southwesterly surface flow returns ahead of the next frontal boundary. This front will move through late Sunday into Monday with another cold and blustery day on tap for Monday. Again, this front will stay dry outside of a few possible flurries or sprinkles as low level moisture remain very meager. Upper level flow possibly becomes less amplified toward the middle part of next week with a bit of a warming trend expected. Some tropical moisture tries to advance northward by mid week ahead of the next front and shortwave. Guidance has been consistent on at least some low rain chances across the southeastern portions of the forecast area by mid to late next week.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Gusty winds will decrease somewhat this evening but may increase again at times overnight as a reinforcing cold front pushes southward through the area. Winds will become gusty during the day Saturday areawide. Ongoing periodic VFR ceilings across NE OK into NW AR will likely remain a feature through Saturday but no aviation impacts expected. Also ongoing sprinkles or flurries spreading across NE OK / NW AR will produce no flight level impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 25 38 15 51 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 27 42 17 49 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 26 42 12 53 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 21 35 10 50 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 22 36 10 45 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 23 32 11 44 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 25 40 12 52 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 22 32 11 47 / 0 0 0 0 F10 25 41 12 54 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 30 43 17 52 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.