textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

-Low thunderstorm chances Friday through Sunday. Limited severe risk Sunday afternoon and evening.

- A more active weather pattern is expected early next week including the risk of sever weather and heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Regional RAOBS sampled the deep layer of very steep lapse rates supportive of high based convection within any weak region of forcing. Sfc based convection remains capped especially across the local region away from more defined initiation boundaries. Several guidance members maintain the mid level convection across the forecast through tonight and into the day Saturday. Any precip amounts will remain light but isolated lightning remains a hazard for outdoor activities.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Scattered light showers and isolated storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday with slightly higher chances from far NE OK into far NW AR which could be nearer the periphery of any decaying overnight storms origination further north and west. Uncertainty remain on if clouds and light precip will linger through the day or if lesser cloud cover remains allowing a notable warm up area wide. Any severe weather focus is again likely to remain well west and north of the region through Saturday night.

Instability will trend upward across the region Sunday however the focus for storm initiation will again remain west and north of the region. Low level jet increases Sunday night into Monday and may support isolated to scattered late night showers and storms but confidence is low in overall coverage.

The approach and more southern influence from a stronger wave on Monday will be the forcing needed to increase storm chances along a more eastward located dryline and also along a surging cold front to our north. Expect storm chances to increase through the day Monday but more so Monday night into Tuesday. Run to run and across model inconsistencies remain regarding the cold frontal push into the region which impacts storm chances on Tuesday. Conditions along and ahead of the front will likely support some risk of severe weather and a slower frontal progression will favor heavy rainfall potential. Once the front does clear the region then drier and cooler temperatures are likely for a few days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Scattered very light showers or sprinkles continue across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas and will likely last through the afternoon. Little to no aviation impacts are expected. Mid to high cloud will prevail through much of the period with occasionally gusty southerly winds for all sites. Winds will likely pick up somewhat tomorrow morning, especially across NE OK. A robust LLJ tonight will create LLWS conditions with some more scattered showers possible across the area. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 73 88 73 87 / 20 20 0 0 FSM 71 89 69 89 / 20 20 0 0 MLC 73 85 73 88 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 71 88 70 88 / 20 20 0 0 FYV 71 85 69 86 / 20 20 0 10 BYV 71 86 68 86 / 30 30 0 0 MKO 72 87 71 86 / 20 20 0 0 MIO 71 87 70 86 / 30 20 0 10 F10 72 86 72 87 / 20 20 0 0 HHW 70 86 70 86 / 20 10 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.