textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

- Patchy to areas of dense freezing fog may impact portions of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas late tonight and into Thursday morning. - Another strong cold front with low chances for precipitation late in the week.

- Very cold temperatures and wind chills expected Friday night into Saturday morning, with minimum wind chill values dropping below zero.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1212 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Low-impact weather will persist through the remainder of the afternoon, with temperatures topping out in the upper 30s to lower 40s underneath sunny or mostly sunny skies across the district this afternoon.

By early evening, a swift-moving mid-level shortwave trough will eject off the Rockies and an area of surface low pressure will develop and begin to strengthen across the High Plains. The surface low is forecast to move into western OK by daybreak Thursday, dragging a cold front on its backside. The frontal boundary will be moving across eastern OK and northwest AR during the daytime Thursday.

Winds will remain light out of the south tonight. Will continue to monitor the development of freezing fog this evening and overnight. Consensus in model guidance shows patchy to areas of freezing fog developing once again late tonight and into Thursday morning. One limiting factor that may inhibit or perhaps delay fog from developing will be increasing high clouds late tonight. With that said, was confidence enough to add some patchy freezing fog to most locations tonight, with the exception of far northeast OK and far northwest AR. Highest confidence of freezing fog will remain across far southeast OK and through the Arkansas River Valley, where the more ripe fog conditions will be.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1212 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

A mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low, with trailing cold front, will move across eastern OK and northwest AR during the daytime Thursday. Deterministic models have been persistent in showing the shortwave trough tapping into very limited moisture as it is moves across the CWA Thursday afternoon. A few light rain showers and/or snow showers cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the frontal boundary Friday afternoon/evening, especially across far eastern OK and northwest AR. Otherwise, breezy northerly winds will accompany the passing front, with temperatures falling into the teens and lower 20s early Friday morning. A more significant push of Arctic air will occur Friday afternoon as a potent upper-level low moves over the Great Lakes and a 1044mb surface high moves into Plains. Moisture will continue to be limited into the upcoming weekend, but enough lift and moisture may produce a few spotty light snow showers and flurries Friday evening/night. Accumulations and impacts are not expected at this time.

Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill temperatures will return Friday night into Saturday morning. Overnight low temperatures will bottom out in the single digits for the majority of the area Saturday morning, with wind chill temperatures dropping below zero. Cold weather headlines will likely be needed. Temperatures will begin to modify starting Sunday as southerly winds draw in warmer air into the area. By Tuesday, temperatures will trend closer to average, with high temperatures reaching the mid-upper 40s and low 50s. Next best chance of widespread precipitation will come with another approaching upper-level system Tuesday into Wednesday. Better details to come in future forecasts.

Mejia

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Mostly sunny skies will continue through the afternoon with light southwest winds. Ceilings will develop overnight, but they will be at or above 15 kft. A weak boundary will shift into northeast OK Thursday morning, shifting KBVO to ENE wind, with south to southeast winds expected elsewhere. Some patchy fog may develop, with the best chance near KMLC near dawn. Ceilings will come down in eastern OK by mid morning to 5-8 kft. A few sprinkles or flurries could occur in eastern OK Thursday late morning, but accumulation is not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 22 38 16 31 / 0 10 0 10 FSM 21 45 24 38 / 0 10 10 10 MLC 25 44 20 37 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 17 35 12 29 / 0 10 0 10 FYV 22 44 18 33 / 0 10 10 10 BYV 23 42 18 30 / 0 10 10 10 MKO 24 43 18 34 / 0 10 0 10 MIO 20 37 15 28 / 0 10 10 10 F10 25 41 17 35 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 25 48 24 42 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.