textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- The potential for locally heavy rainfall and rapid onset flash flooding is the main concern through Saturday morning. Limited threat of severe weather through early Saturday morning.

- A big shift in the weather pattern will bring hot, humid and dry weather starting this weekend on into next week. Heat advisory headlines will likely be needed.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms were ongoing late Friday evening across portions of the region, particularly along and north of I-44 in far NE OK and in C OK. This activity is likely to continue through the overnight period owing to continued WAA as a strengthening LLJ impinges on remnant outflow boundaries in the area. Near-term guidance indicates a MCV/vort max will slide east over the area during the early morning hours which will keep at least low rain chances going past sunrise.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential are the main concerns through the overnight hours, as slow-moving storms will continue to be efficient rainfall producers within an anomalously moist environment (PWATs > 2 in). Rainfall rates in excess of 2 in/hr and totals between 2-4 inches (locally greater than 5 inches) will be possible in the hardest hit areas tonight. This will continue to lead to rapid-onset flash flooding, potentially life- threatening, as soils remain saturated from previous days rainfall.

Guidance generally points to two areas of heaviest rainfall in the forecast area tonight, one of which is already occurring near the OK-KS border in NE OK, and another further to the south / southwest. So far, locations near the OK-KS border have received the most rainfall with flash flooding ongoing as a slow-moving line of regenerating storms persists. This area of convection may tend to sag south and expand eastward overnight with continued flash flood potential. To the southwest, in central Oklahoma, strong to severe storms have recently become more concentrated near the Oklahoma City metro area. As this activity slides east- southeast with time, a focused area of heavy rainfall is forecast to develop overnight with increasing low- level flow. While some uncertainty still exists with exact placement, current indications paint the heaviest rainfall axis along and north of I-40 in Creek, Okfuskee, and Okmulgee counties. These areas have seen several inches of rainfall over the past few days and are particularly susceptible to flash flooding. Aforementioned storms closer to the OK-KS border may tend to weaken if this southern band of storms becomes dominant. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas until 7 AM. The severe threat will tend to diminish with time, but marginally severe wind or hail remains possible into the early morning.

Most rainfall is expected to conclude by mid-late morning as storms weaken and shift east of the area. Skies will clear from west to east through the day with plenty of sunshine expected during the afternoon. This will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s. With dewpoints remaining elevated, heat indices will likely rise above 100 degrees and perhaps above 105 degrees (advisory criteria) this afternoon. An advisory may become required, but with uncertainty regarding lingering precip/cloud cover during the morning, will hold off on issuing with this forecast cycle.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Much quieter weather is forecast through the remainder of the forecast period as ridging moves into the region. Temperatures will remain very warm over the next several days, with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. Elevated dewpoints will continue to provide heat indices over 100-105 degrees each day, and heat headlines will likely be needed. While some isolated afternoon convection will be possible by mid to late next week, mainly across the terrain of NW AR/SE OK, dry conditions overall are expected.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Thunderstorms remain ongoing across northwest AR and northeast OK this morning. Overall trend will be decreasing coverage across eastern OK over next 1-2 hours with the decrease translating east through mid morning. Flight conditions will be significantly impacted as storms pass, with IFR conditions and gusty winds. Outside of storm impacts, VFR conditions will prevail with gusty south winds, which will decrease this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 91 79 93 79 / 60 0 0 0 FSM 93 77 94 78 / 30 0 0 0 MLC 93 77 93 78 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 91 76 92 76 / 60 0 0 0 FYV 88 74 89 74 / 70 0 0 0 BYV 88 74 89 75 / 80 0 0 0 MKO 90 77 92 78 / 50 0 0 0 MIO 90 76 91 77 / 60 0 0 0 F10 91 77 92 77 / 30 0 0 0 HHW 92 75 93 76 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for OKZ055>071-074-154-172-254- 272-354.

AR...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for ARZ001-002.