textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- An extended period of hot and dry weather will persist through at least the first week of September. Daily heat headlines are likely.

- The only possibility of rain will be a very slight chance of diurnal high terrain showers the middle of next week.

- The ongoing drought situation will continue to worsen. Localized fire weather concerns will develop each day.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Hot temperatures have returned to the area, with highs expected to be in the upper 90s to low 100s across the forecast area. With dew points in the low to mid 60s, heat indices will only be slightly above actual temperatures. Accordingly, no heat products are in effect for this afternoon. Skies will be mostly clear with just a few high clouds and modest southerly wind.

Overnight tonight, southerly winds will not totally die off, which will help keep lows higher. Most locations will remain in the 70s with continued dry conditions.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The anomalously strong upper level high will continue to sit nearly overhead Sunday and into early next week. Upper level heights and temperatures will mostly be above the 90th percentile for this time of year. This will keep conditions hot and stagnant, with afternoon highs remaining 98-103 and overnight lows in the 70s. Mostly trimmed temperatures to slightly below NBM values, which look too hot overall. With continuous modest southerly flow, dew points will gradually rise. These factors will support afternoon heat indices of 105-110 for good chunks of eastern OK and west- central AR. A Heat Advisory is in effect Sunday for northeast OK, with additional headlines likely in the coming days.

For the middle to end of next week the upper level high will slightly shift, and become centered just east of the area, with moisture levels slowly climbing as this occurs. Overall, the same general pattern of heat and dry weather will persist. However, the increase in moisture will be just enough for at least the chance of some higher terrain diurnal showers or storms (10-15 percent chance). Even longer range guidance (beyond day 7) has unusually high confidence in the upper level ridge remaining near or overhead through at least the next 10 days and likely beyond.

Fire weather concerns will continue each afternoon of the next week due to hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Ensemble guidance shows Sunday and Monday as the breeziest days overall.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Near persistent daily trends are expected with continued VFR flight conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 77 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 70 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 75 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 75 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 71 97 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 71 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 72 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 74 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 F10 74 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 72 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ055>057- 059>062-064-067-154-254-354.

AR...None.