textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Headline worthy heat continues through Friday, with afternoon heat indices of 105-115F.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in the forecast through Friday. Storms Friday afternoon and evening may drop locally heavy rainfall.

- A cool front will bring more pleasant weather for the weekend into early next week, but the heat will return by the latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The remnants of an MCS currently located across southern Nebraska are expected to move southeast across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday morning before dissipating by around midday. The scattered showers and storms and associated cloud cover will delay the warmup Friday morning, but this will only be temporary.

Once skies clear out late Friday morning and afternoon, strong warming is expected just ahead of a cold front that will enter northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon. Temperatures will soar to the hottest readings we have seen thus far in 2026 across parts of eastern Oklahoma, especially along and west of Highway 75. Dew points will also pool near and just north of the frontal boundary, and the result will be heat index values climbing to near 115 degrees across parts of northeast Oklahoma late Friday afternoon. Have expanded the extreme heat warning to include most of eastern Oklahoma Friday afternoon except for the far southeast and a small part of east central Oklahoma. Have issued a heat advisory for the rest of the forecast area not included in the warning. High temperatures Friday will range from the upper 90s to near 105 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

At least isolated convection is expected to develop by late Friday afternoon or more likely early Friday evening along the advancing cold front. Strong downburst winds will be possible with the stronger storms. These storms will likely exit the area or dissipate by near or shortly after midnight as the front clears the area.

Much cooler and less humid conditions will then prevail over the weekend before a warming trend begins early next week. Temperatures will return to above normal levels by the latter half of next week, but dew points should remain lower than they have been this week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Ongoing scattered and storms across NE OK and far NW AR will continue to spread ESE through the morning with higher chances for brief aviation impacts north of Interstate 40. Convection dissipates around noon w/ VFR conditions and gusty winds. Additional storms develop mid to late afternoon primarily southeast of Interstate 44 and spread east and south through late evening. Strong outflow winds w/ the strongest storms which could impact terminals from SE OK into NW AR. VFR conditions persist outside of any thunderstorm influences.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 104 71 90 69 / 40 20 0 0 FSM 103 72 91 69 / 10 30 0 0 MLC 103 71 91 68 / 10 30 0 0 BVO 102 67 90 63 / 50 0 0 0 FYV 99 67 85 64 / 20 30 0 0 BYV 99 66 83 66 / 20 40 0 10 MKO 102 70 90 67 / 30 20 0 0 MIO 100 67 85 66 / 50 20 0 0 F10 104 70 90 68 / 30 20 0 0 HHW 101 74 92 70 / 10 20 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-069-172.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>068-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.