textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 603 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Mostly pleasant, unseasonably cool, and dry weather expected through the weekend.

- Frost and light freeze potential this weekend, with the best chance for freezing temperatures and frost centered on Sunday morning across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

- A gradual warming trend develops next week under persistent dry weather.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1158 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Surface observations show high pressure building across the Central and Southern Plains. Visible satellite imagery reveals an extensive deck of post-frontal stratus blanketing much of eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. These low clouds are beginning to lift and break apart. They will continue to do so through the afternoon hours from north to south as drier air advects into the boundary layer. However, the persistent cloud cover will temper diurnal heating through early afternoon, holding temperatures in the lower to mid-50s until more widespread sunshine emerges later today. Once clouds scatter out, highs should recover to near 60 degrees or in the lower 60s.

Heading into tonight, the surface high will settle over central Missouri, resulting in calm or very light northerly winds through the overnight period. Skies will start off partly cloudy or mostly clear after sunset. As a potent upper-level low digs over northwest Mexico late this evening, high clouds will stream in and cover the area from the southwest by daybreak Saturday. Latest NBM and CONSShort guidance is aggressive in showing dense fog developing across northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma just before sunrise. But with increasing upper-level clouds in the morning, a little skeptical just how dense the fog will get. Nevertheless, at this time, added patchy fog for a handful of hours for this area. Overnight lows will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s for most valley and rural locations north of I-40, with lower 40s confined to ridge tops, urban areas, and points south of I-40. In addition to the potential fog, patchy frost may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning across sheltered low- lying spots of far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, though this also may be dependent on cloud cover.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1158 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Mid-level ridging builds into the central CONUS through the weekend, reinforcing surface high pressure over the region. Highs on Saturday will remain pleasant and unseasonably cool, reaching the lower to middle 60s as cloud coverage decrease through the daytime.

The primary forecast highlight of the weekend remains the potential for frost and a light freeze. While patchy frost is possible both weekend mornings, especially near the Oklahoma/Kansas border and far northwest Arkansas, optimal cooling aligns for a little more widespread frost Saturday night into Sunday morning as high pressure sits directly atop the Ozarks. Deterministic ensemble guidance show the best potential for a light freeze (temperatures dropping to 30-32F) occurring early Sunday morning across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, with widespread mid-to-upper 30s and patchy frost for locations north of I-40. Sensitive vegetation may need protection in these traditionally colder drainage areas.

By late Sunday into early next week, the surface high begins to shift eastward toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Southerly return flow will gradually become re-established across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, initiating a multi-day moderating trend. Medium to long-range models remain in solid consensus on dry, quiet weather persisting through late next week. High temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday and into the low-to- mid 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance shows the next cold front will move through the area next Wednesday, but the front appears fairly weak at this time, knocking temperatures back down closer to seasonal average through next Friday.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Area of low clouds that cleared nern OK sites this afternoon remains across sern OK and nwrn AR this evening. Trends and latest guidance suggest they may clear MLC later this evening, but likely remain across nwrn AR sites. Satellite data indicates abundant high cloudiness spreading into the area, which will thicken and lower over time through Saturday. A lot of the current guidance suggests that areas where low clouds cleared this afternoon and evening, will see them overspread back into those areas tonight, thus forecasts for nern OK sites indicate MVFR CIGS redeveloping 06-09z. MVFR VSBYS in fog also possible at most sites, but expected cloud cover should keep any fog from getting too dense. Widespread high cloudiness will likely delay the low clouds from breaking up until late morning/ midday Saturday, but thereafter VFR expected all sites Saturday afternoon and early evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 39 61 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 43 65 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 41 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 34 60 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 34 62 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 39 60 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 39 61 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 36 59 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 F10 39 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 48 68 44 69 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.