textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Fog is expected to develop again tonight in the valleys of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Some of this fog may be dense in spots.

- After mostly quiet weather today into Monday, daily rain and storm chances are expected from Tuesday through the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall which could lead to isolated flash flooding will be the main threat.

- Temperatures remain near average for much of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Weak surface ridging is expected to remain in place over the south-central CONUS into tomorrow. While models show some high cloud tonight, it is not expected to be widespread or thick. With another night of good radiational cooling expected, will include fog potential in the valleys of eastern OK and northwest AR again tonight. There has been at least some dense fog the past two nights, and without significant changes in the regime expected, it is hard to argue against persistence. Will let the evening shift refine the areas and issue an advisory if needed.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

PoPs have trended lower for Monday afternoon, with influence from an approaching upper disturbance from TX expected to hold off until Tuesday. The GFS/EC/UKMET show scattered showers and storms Tuesday over at least portions of the area. A wave on the nose of a subtropical jet is forecast to move into west TX by late Tuesday, and is expected to force a large MCS there by Tuesday night. While the bulk of this storm activity is forecast to stay to our south and west, an area of low pressure aloft, likely convectively enhanced to some degree, is expected to form and lift north into western OK on Wednesday. The global models have scattered showers and storms either lifting north into or developing over the region during the day Wednesday, on its eastern side. A NW-SE oriented trough will remain over the forecast area through the end of the week, stuck beneath a blocking ridge in the higher latitudes over central NOAM. Expect daily shower and storm chances to continue, especially over eastern portions of the forecast area on the eastern side of the trough axis.

While there is no discernible signal for heavy rain evident in ensemble data today, above normal PWATs will increase rainfall efficiency from the heavier showers and storms that develop. Thus, the potential for locally heavy rainfall still exists later this week with any slow-moving or training storms. Deep layer shear is expected to remain weak, thus organized severe weather is not expected over the coming week.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Variable amounts of persistent low clouds nwrn AR will result in occasional MVFR CIGS those sites for the first few hours of the forecast period, then all sites VFR with scattered high clouds by 25/00z. Another night of good radiational cooling and wet ground will result in fog developing after 25/06z. Carried MVFR in fog all sites late tonight, with TEMPO IFR KFYV after 25/09z. Fog will likely affect sites through around 25/14z, then VFR with variable amounts of high clouds. Wind veers to the east and southeast on Monday, but remains less than 10kt.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 61 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 30 FSM 64 85 66 83 / 0 10 10 60 MLC 62 86 64 84 / 0 0 0 40 BVO 57 85 60 83 / 0 0 0 30 FYV 56 83 61 81 / 0 10 10 70 BYV 58 81 61 78 / 0 0 0 70 MKO 60 84 63 82 / 0 0 0 40 MIO 58 84 62 82 / 0 0 0 40 F10 60 85 62 83 / 0 0 0 30 HHW 64 85 65 83 / 0 10 10 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.