textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 633 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Thunderstorm chances continue through tonight and early Sunday.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times.

- While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 48 hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Elevated convection continues across parts of the area early this afternoon. Expect a gradual weakening trend with this activity through the afternoon, but some potential for damaging downburst winds will continue until the storms dissipate.

Attention will then turn towards a potential storm complex that may develop across northwest Oklahoma and southwest Kansas late this afternoon and early this evening. If this complex forms, it will likely track east into parts of northeast Oklahoma and possibly far northwest Arkansas late this evening and overnight. A limited potential for severe storms with damaging winds will exist with this complex overnight. Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Showers and storms may linger into Sunday morning across far northwest Arkansas before ending. A strong upper ridge will then build over the area and persist through at least the middle of next week with the center of the ridge just to our east. Dangerous heat will return Sunday through at least the middle of next week, with daily heat headlines expected. A heat advisory has been issued for Sunday afternoon for much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

Shower and thunderstorm chances may increase by late week as a cold front approaches from the north. The timing of this front remains somewhat uncertain, but it does appear that a more significant cooldown may take place by sometime next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside of storm activity through the period. The latest CAM guidance suggests that storms over far NW OK could cluster and come east across northern OK overnight and perhaps into far NW AR toward early Sunday morning. Confidence is not super high, but both CAM models show some storm activity spreading in from the west so have maintained the prob30s from previous forecast and just adjusted the time window back a few hours to be more in line with latest guidance. Did insert some wind gust potential per HRRR.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 101 78 100 / 20 0 10 0 FSM 75 103 76 102 / 10 10 10 0 MLC 75 102 77 101 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 70 100 71 100 / 40 10 10 0 FYV 69 98 70 98 / 20 20 10 0 BYV 71 96 72 96 / 20 30 10 10 MKO 72 102 74 101 / 10 0 10 0 MIO 70 97 73 99 / 40 10 10 0 F10 72 102 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 74 101 75 101 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066- 070-071-073>075-176-272.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053- 055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272- 276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220- 229.