textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, continue into Sunday. Areas of heavy rain and flash/river flooding are likely.

- Cooler weather is expected through Monday before warmer and wetter weather returns mid week.

- Additional storm chances return for the latter half of the week which could have limited severe potentials and a heavy rain threat.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday Night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Strong to severe convection moving south/southeast in northeast Oklahoma late Saturday evening will continue to push through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Sunday morning. The greatest severe threat has transitioned to damaging winds with localized gusts of 60-70+ mph as of this writing. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning severe potentials should begin to weaken as instability decreases from north to south. By 09z Sunday, the majority of the convection is forecast to be across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas in a weakening form, with the leading line exiting the CWA by 12z Sunday. A gusty to locally strong wind threat remains late tonight through early morning Sunday. In addition to the severe threat into Sunday, heavy rainfall has also been occurring with the strong convection, which will increase flash flood concerns through the overnight hours. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to locally higher than 3 inches remain possible for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through tonight, which will also create rises on area streams and rivers. Thus, will continue the Flood Watch into Sunday for these locations. Farther south into southeast Oklahoma rainfall amounts into Sunday look to be less with a half inch to locally approaching 2 inches.

During the day Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to push southward with the movement of a cold front sliding through the region. The greater PoPs Sunday should remain south of Interstate 40 and then taper off from north to south once the 850-mb frontal boundary begins to push out of the CWA. With the leading line of convection expected to move out early Sunday morning, additional severe potentials are not currently anticipated during the day. Additional rainfall Sunday afternoon is forecast to be light with generally less than a quarter of an inch. Also during the day, cooler conditions spread into the region with surface high pressure beginning to filter into the CWA. Thus, high temperatures Sunday look to only get into the 70s to mid 80s from north to south.

Rain chances look to linger over southeast Oklahoma into Sunday night while the mid level trof axis moves across the region. In the wake of the exiting storm system, low temperatures Sunday look to fall into 60s for most locations, and the normal cool locations to touch upper 50s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Surface high pressure remains common across the CWA Monday which will continue the cool conditions. A few lingering showers may remain possible in far southeast Oklahoma during the morning hours before the upper level trof axis moves off to the east southeast. Severe weather is not expected Monday. The cooler conditions become short-lived into Tuesday as southerly low level flow returns on the backside of the departing surface high. Tuesday night upper level flow is progged to be more west northwesterly while a low pressure system moves through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. In response, latest model solutions indicate a potential MCS developing Tuesday evening in Kansas and dropping through the CWA Tuesday night within the upper level flow. Thus, will continue with chance PoPs for portions of the CWA into early Wednesday morning. A limited severe potential for strong winds could exist for northeast Oklahoma as this complex pushes in.

Warming trend continues into Wednesday with a warm and more humid airmass in place. Heat index values Wednesday afternoon could reach up into the mid 90s to near 105 degrees. Conditions for the latter half of the week are currently forecast to become more unsettled with an area of low pressure lifting into the southern Plains and a second mid/upper level trof axis moving through the Plains. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and increase into Friday. Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat look to develop with these two waves moving through. Latest model solutions indicate the majority of the precip trying to exit by early next weekend with a warming trend returning through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Widespread SHRA and TSRA continue to impact MLC/FSM early this forecast period, as convection gradually moves south during the morning. MVFR/IFR CIGS have developed nern OK and nwrn AR sites, with some light fog possible through mid morning. Improving CIGS from north to south beginning midday through afternoon, with VFR expected all sites by 15/00z. Cold front across nern OK will move through all terminals by early this afternoon, with northerly wind behind front becoming light tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 76 61 78 61 / 20 10 0 0 FSM 83 66 82 64 / 50 20 10 0 MLC 80 65 81 63 / 50 20 10 0 BVO 75 57 78 58 / 20 10 0 0 FYV 78 59 79 58 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 76 58 76 57 / 20 10 0 0 MKO 77 62 78 60 / 30 10 0 0 MIO 76 58 77 59 / 10 10 0 0 F10 77 61 78 59 / 40 10 0 0 HHW 83 67 79 65 / 80 50 40 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.