textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1026 PM CST SAT Feb 28 2026 - Rain chances increase Sunday, especially north of I-40 (40-70% chance). A cold front across the area will result in a wide range in temperatures.

- Localized fire weather potential will continue for the next few afternoons in areas with minimal rainfall.

- An unsettled weather pattern continues over the next week with multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards in the mid to late week period.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A midlevel shortwave intersecting a surface cold front will continue to promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight. As forcing weakens, lingering precipitation will die off by dawn. Overall, total accumulation will be minimal, with most locations seeing little to none. Low temperatures will vary significantly, ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s in the far north (north of the cold front), to 50s near and south of the front. The front is expected to settle near the I-44 corridor overnight tonight.

During the day Sunday, the front will retreat back north, with mild air surging northward as well. Afternoon highs will again vary quite a bit. North of the front (roughly Highway 412), highs will be in the 50s to low 60s. South of the front, upper 60s to upper 70s are expected. Shower and thunderstorm activity will reinvigorate during the afternoon and evening hours as another mid level shortwave trough approaches. Rainfall will probably be limited, but the chance for more widespread measurable rain will be higher than Saturday, especially if some of the more aggressive CAMs like the HRRR are correct. Overall, forecast PoPs will range from 40-70% north of I-40 to 20- 40% south of there. Heavy rain and severe weather are not expected. Limited fire weather potential may develop during the afternoon, especially across southeast OK where the threat of rain is lower.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

An active weather pattern will remain in place for the remainder of the forecast period. The big picture seems to be in good agreement amongst most modeling guidance, which is that we will have moist southwest flow and periodic mid level disturbances passing through. These features will kick off several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With that said, Monday and Tuesday appear to be relatively slower days, with less meaningful storm activity.

By midweek that will begin to change with a more robust trough axis providing better forcing to an already moist and unstable airmass. According to EPS climatology, much of the week will feature PWAT values in the 95-99th percentile relative to climatology. A more widespread precipitation event is expected Wednesday-Thursday, with potentially locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorm activity. Then for Friday and into the weekend a deeper western trough will further increase the moist southwest flow and upper level diffluence over the area. This is likely to keep periodic showers and thunderstorms in the region.

With all of this said, this is the type of pattern where you can have good confidence in the big picture but low confidence in the details. The model guidance shows significant uncertainties in the exact timing and location of each of the features that were mentioned, so the forecast details will likely shift around in the days ahead. Separate from the rain/storm threat, it's worth mentioning that the airmass in place will also remain warm through the extended. Most days will see temperatures above normal, some well above normal. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with 70s to low 80s being expected. For areas that do not see meaningful rainfall, fire weather will continue to be a concern through midweek.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Broken/overcast mid and high clouds at the start of the period remain common into this evening before MVFR/IFR ceilings spread into the CWA tonight through Monday morning. The greater potential for IFR conditions are across northeast Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas. At the same time, scattered rain showers along with thunderstorm chances are forecast this afternoon into the overnight hours for the CWA as a frontal boundary sags through the region. Within the stronger storm potential, MVFR conditions and variable winds are possible. Majority of the precip looks to move off to the east Monday morning and have added Prob30/Tempo groups for timing of greater potential. Winds through the period start out south to easterly and become north to east behind the frontal boundary tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 68 44 63 54 / 60 70 20 10 FSM 77 52 73 55 / 50 40 20 0 MLC 79 50 73 58 / 40 40 20 10 BVO 57 38 55 47 / 50 70 20 20 FYV 72 49 70 54 / 70 60 30 10 BYV 64 45 64 53 / 80 80 30 20 MKO 74 48 67 56 / 60 60 20 10 MIO 60 45 61 53 / 60 80 30 20 F10 75 48 66 57 / 60 60 20 10 HHW 79 56 73 57 / 10 20 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.