textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1110 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

- Fire weather concerns will remain heightened Friday and Saturday due to gusty winds and low relative humidity behind dry frontal passages.

- Several mostly dry cold fronts are expected during the next week, with below normal temperatures favored Saturday through Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A pleasant afternoon is in store across the region today as surface ridging slides east and southwest winds return to the area. Southerly flow along with abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to rebound into the upper 40s to mid 50s. A brief period of elevated fire weather concerns will arise this afternoon, mainly along and west of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma where min RH values drop into 30 percent range with wind gusts approaching 25 mph. Southerly wind stay up tonight ahead of an approaching frontal boundary which will make for a more mild night tonight than last night as lows stay mostly in the mid 30s.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Highly amplified northerly to northwesterly flow aloft continues over the region through much of the next week as strong ridging continues along the Pacific Coast with deep cyclonic flow remaining planted over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS. This will push several cold fronts through the region through the weekend and into the middle part of next week. The next front will push through late tonight through tomorrow morning. Moisture is very limited over the area and precip chances will stay minimal with each frontal passage through the next week. However, a few sprinkles or flurries could develop behind the front early Friday, but any measurable precip remains unlikely. The bigger concern will be strong, gusty northerly winds and a further reinforcement of dry air will lead to near-critical fire conditions across parts of the area during the day tomorrow. Prolonged dry conditions have lead to some local burn bans being instituted across the CWA. Those should be closely followed over the next few days as any fire starts will have the potential to spread quickly.

Another front arrives on Saturday, knocking temps back a few more degrees. Overall, a cool and blustery day is on tap for Saturday, but no precipitation is expected again with this frontal passage. The surface ridge will settle directly overhead on Saturday night, likely leading to the coldest night of the period under good radiational cooling conditions. Very low dewpoints will allow for widespread lows in the teens with some of the normally colder locations dropping into the single digits by Sunday morning. The highly progressive pattern will continue, with the surface ridge quickly shifting southeast and southwesterly winds returning on Sunday leading to another good rebound in temperatures Sunday afternoon.

Another front arrives on Monday and more of the same is expected into the middle part of next week. A day or two of cooler temperatures will start of the week, with a warming trend kicking off into the middle part of the week. Further periods of gusty winds could enhance fire weather concerns as dry weather continues. PoPs remain low through the period with some low end rain chances possible toward the middle part of next week over the southeastern half of the forecast area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with LLWS potential mainly Friday morning being the primary concern. The stronger winds will lag the initial wind shift behind a cold front late tonight, leading to a multi-hour period early Friday morning with LLWS mainly at the OK terminals. The chance exists at the W AR sites for a shorter duration as well but confidence is not high enough to mention in the TAFs for this set. Gusty northerly winds will develop mid to late morning tomorrow, with stronger winds for the afternoon, just beyond this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 53 35 48 26 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 50 32 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 53 36 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 52 32 48 22 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 48 31 45 23 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 45 34 44 24 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 50 33 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 47 32 45 23 / 0 0 10 0 F10 54 36 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 52 36 55 30 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.