textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Low rain chances into Monday afternoon with isolated thunderstorm potential in southeast Oklahoma.

- Above normal temperatures continue through mid week.

- Unsettled weather for mid to late week. Expect several periods of high rain chances and heavy rain potential. Limited severe weather potential will exist as well.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Surface boundary just south of the Red River Sunday night combined with a weak elevated boundary across northeast Oklahoma to west central Arkansas and also warm advection processes will aid in low rain chances Sunday night into Monday morning. Isolated thunder potential exists mainly over far southeast Oklahoma, closer to the surface boundary. Much of this activity is expected to weaken through the morning hours Monday while the surface boundary sags farther south and the elevated boundary washes out. A slight chance of showers/storms could remain for far southeast Oklahoma into the afternoon hours. In the wake of the weakening precip, cloud cover is forecast to become more scattered which will help afternoon temperatures Monday to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s from north to south.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

For the week ahead, the main forecast concerns are associated with a low pressure system, currently moving southeast along the West coast, merging with the remnants of tropical system Polo over the Desert Southwest and lifting into the southern/central Plains mid-late week. With this system, an increasing heavy rain threat is developing for the second half of the week along with a continued limited severe potential.

Latest model solutions are in general agreement with the merging of these two features over the Desert Southwest Tuesday/Wednesday. However, beyond Wednesday model run to run solutions continue indicate uncertainties in the timing and track of the low pressure system through the Plains. The general track of the system could depend on a wave/trof axis moving across the northern Plains with a trailing cold front approaching the southern Plains late week. This could hinder the northern extent of the low pressure system lifting into the southern Plains, and keep a weakening low pressure over the region into the weekend. If part or most of the low pressure system can remain ahead of the trof axis, then a quicker exit of the low pressure system is possible. For now will continue with a blended approach with a lean toward a slower solution that could keep precip chances going into the weekend.

For this forecast, a slight chance of showers/storms could develop west of Highway 75 Tuesday afternoon as the first slug of moisture lifts north/northeast through west and central Oklahoma. The main moisture plume is currently progged to lift into the region Wednesday with the low pressure system near the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles. In response, rain showers are forecast to become likely from west to east, especially Wednesday night through Friday. Overall instability tries to spread eastward with the moisture, though at this time the eastern periphery of the instability axis looks to only get into a portion of eastern Oklahoma. Thus, will continue with low chances for thunderstorms for eastern Oklahoma and isolated chances for northwest Arkansas. Increasing winds aloft could aid in limited severe potentials Wednesday/Thursday. High moisture content with precipitable water values near climatological max for the time of year looks to be the main threat with this multi-day precipitation forecast. As of this forecast, Wednesday night into Friday is the general window for multiple periods of heavy rainfall. Overall recent antecedent conditions have been dry for much of the CWA. However, for any precip that can train over the same locations with efficient rain producing cells could create localized flooding impacts. With the uncertainties mentioned above, rainfall amounts and their locations will continue to be revised as the event approaches. Lastly, rain and storm chances for this forecast hold on into the weekend for portions of the CWA before the remaining form of the low pressure system weakens and or exits.

Temperatures for the week ahead remain above seasonal average into Wednesday, and then fall back into the 70s/80s for highs late week into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few showers will be possible early this morning in the vicinity of KMLC and KFSM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 85 66 89 73 / 20 0 10 0 FSM 87 65 92 72 / 20 10 10 0 MLC 92 67 93 73 / 30 10 10 0 BVO 84 63 86 69 / 10 0 10 10 FYV 84 60 87 67 / 10 0 10 0 BYV 81 61 86 68 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 87 66 90 71 / 20 10 10 0 MIO 83 62 84 69 / 10 0 10 10 F10 88 66 91 72 / 20 0 10 0 HHW 89 67 94 72 / 30 10 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.