textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 134 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 - Cooler temperatures today.

- Above normal temperatures and only periodic low rain chances return Tuesday through Saturday.

- Widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions develop Tuesday with the return of warm weather and gusty south to southwest winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Today is the last day of the current cool weather streak, with below normal temperatures continuing this afternoon. Surface high pressure stretched across the area will shift eastward through the day, with southerly winds returning by mid to late afternoon to western parts of the forecast area and by mid to late evening in eastern portions. Wind speeds and gusts will increase dramatically from the southwest after midnight and before sunrise Tuesday, as 925 winds from 40 to 50 kts develop in response to lee troughing. Overnight lows will likely be reached early in the period due to the better radiational cooling conditions during the evening hours.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Fire weather conditions on Tuesday will likely be the highest of the period, with a Fire Danger Statement needed for most of the area. Near critical grassland fire spread rates remain forecast in a good chunk of both eastern Oklahoma and into northwest and west central Arkansas, given south-southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting 35 to 40 mph at times. As usually happens, moisture will be slow to respond to the increased southerly winds, and although low level dew points will likely trend upward through the day, minimum relative humidities during the afternoon will only be in the 15 to 25 percent range in much of the forecast area. Dew points were adjusted down from the NBM initialization while the winds and wind gusts were adjusted upward. High temperatures tomorrow looked good given the potential for high cloudiness, despite the warm downslope wind direction. Good relative humidity recovery should be expected Tuesday night, and Wednesday afternoon humidities will be noticeably improved from Tuesday given the continued increase in low level moisture from the southerly winds.

A weak front will approach the area from the north Wednesday night and into Thursday, with low rain chances across parts of northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas into midday Thursday. A shift to northerly winds will occur behind the front, although only a modest drop in temperatures is expected. Low level moisture will drop behind it however. Warm and dry conditions will prevail from Friday through Saturday. The potential for a stronger front and increased rain chances will exist during the Sunday to Monday time frame.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Light northerly winds this afternoon become calm this evening before increasing out of the south overnight. A strong LLJ will produce southerly LLWS areawide overnight into Tuesday morning, with gusts near 40 kts. At the surface, winds increase Tuesday morning and afternoon, becoming strong with gusts between 20-30 kts. Passing high clouds will increase this evening through tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 134 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued early this afternoon for the area along and north of I-44 for Tuesday. The combination of low afternoon relative humidities and gusty winds addressed above is bad enough on its own, but when considering the very dry and high loading of fuels, worse than typical fire behavior under similar weather conditions may result.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 35 69 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 26 66 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 34 69 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 28 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 25 64 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 26 61 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 30 66 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 28 64 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 F10 33 69 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 31 66 51 75 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.