textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Stormy period today and possibly Friday. Any heavy rainfall will lead to rapid onset flooding across much of NE OK. Severe weather potential today and possibly again Friday.

- Timing and placement details of the heaviest rains and higher severe weather chances remain uncertain. However chances are likely higher north of Interstate 40 for the most impactful weather.

- A more typical summer time pattern expected early next week. Heat advisory headlines will likely be needed.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Convectively active period continues with storm chances trending up late tonight and especially during the day Thursday through Thursday evening. NW to SE corridor of convection extending across the forecast area is possible from late tonight through sunrise with some degree of MCS likely spreading into the forecast area during the time. Timing and organization of the MCS potential is uncertain with a later arrival allowing for ample destabilization and an uptick in severe potential. Steering flow will becoming more E to W allowing storm chances to decrease across the southern tier of the forecast area. Conditions in the wake of the earlier round of storms become more supportive of severe weather as wind fields increase especially in the lowest levels. This coupled with any remnant outflow boundary would be a corridor of focus for higher end severe weather all contingent upon storms to redevelop in the wake of an MCS. This scenario carries high uncertainty and will be the focus through Thursday evening. Flooding issues will quickly develop due to recent rainfall across much of NE OK and observations from the rains on Wednesday indicate that even lesser amounts of rain but in a short time frame will likely lead to issues. Expect additional flood warnings with the convective event ahead and the flood watch remains in effect.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Storm chances continue on Friday but will likely be strongly influenced by what occurs on Thursday especially with regards to sfc boundary locations. Again expect higher chances across northern locations and the severe weather and heavy rain potential remain in place.

The pattern change is underway by Saturday and firmly in place by early next week. Hot and humid conditions with very low rain chances will likely persist through much of next week. Expect dangerous heat index values to develop almost daily and heat headlines continue to appear likely.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MVFR ceilings will develop at most sites overnight into Thursday morning, with the possible exceptions of KMLC and KFSM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening. VFR conditions will return to all sites by late Thursday afternoon or evening except within heavier showers or storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 87 75 90 77 / 60 40 20 40 FSM 90 75 91 76 / 50 20 10 10 MLC 90 77 90 78 / 20 10 10 10 BVO 85 70 88 74 / 70 60 20 40 FYV 86 72 86 74 / 60 40 30 30 BYV 85 71 85 73 / 60 50 40 40 MKO 88 75 89 76 / 40 20 20 20 MIO 85 71 87 74 / 70 70 40 50 F10 88 75 89 76 / 40 20 20 20 HHW 90 75 90 77 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ055>071-073>075-154- 172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...None.