textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Low storm chances tonight along the Kansas and Missouri borders.

- Low chances of showers and thunderstorms for the weekend, with a limited severe weather potential during the period.

- Temperatures near to above mid May normals forecast through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Sunny skies and breezy southerly winds through the rest of the day will allow for temperatures to warm into the 80s for highs this afternoon. A mid level trough diving southeast across the Great Lakes Region this evening will aid in pushing a cool front southward across the Plains overnight tonight. A couple of showers or storms could develop along the boundary across eastern Kansas into southwest Missouri. Trends in guidance tend to support these storm weakening during the overnight hours as they approach far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Additionally, fairly dry lower levels across the region and meager to no instability would also support this activity dissipating before moving into our forecast area. Thus, have kept PoPs just below mentionable, though nonzero for tonight. If anything does make it into the area, severe chances are very low and would mainly be tied to gusty winds do to the dry profiles and decaying nature of the convection. Lows will trend warmer tonight than previous nights, being prior to frontal passage.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Generally low impact weather is expected to persist through the rest of the week. The aforementioned cool front will move southeast across the area tomorrow morning and likely clear southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon. A return to northerly winds will keep temperatures in check, remaining near normal for mid May under sunny skies as upper level ridging shifts eastward over the Southern Plains. Southerly winds will return Wednesday night and increase into Thursday morning as surface cyclogenesis intensifies to our west. A few warm advection showers or storms will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Severe potential will again be very low and any rain amounts will be light. A weak shortwave will track on the north side of the upper ridge Thursday afternoon and evening. this wave will interact with a sharpening dryline across western Oklahoma and could lead to isolated storm development late Thursday. Any activity is expected to stay west of the local region, but could sneak into portions of Osage or Pawnee Counties Thursday night in a decaying state. Gusty southerly winds will also be on the increase on Thursday, with gusts of 30-35mph appearing likely over much of eastern Oklahoma.

The upper ridge will be squashed to the south by late week into the weekend, with more zonal to southwesterly flow aloft returning over much of the Plains. Any thunderstorm and thus severe chances look to remain confined west and north of the forecast area from late week into the weekend, but an isolated storm or two can't be ruled out each afternoon as low level moisture returns and increases by Friday through Sunday. Gusty southerly winds will also continue each afternoon. Temperatures will trend into the upper 80s to lower 90s, depending on how much if any convection and cloud cover occur each afternoon through Sunday. Lows will become much milder by late week as well owing to the increase in moisture and southerly winds.

A stronger upper trough is progged to move across the Northern Plains late in the weekend into early next week. This will drive another frontal boundary into the region. With better moisture in place this time, thunderstorm chances look to increase from late Sunday into early next week as the front lingers in the vicinity.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Mostly clear conditions and breezy southerly winds remain common this afternoon. This evening through tonight, scattered mid and high clouds are forecast to develop from north to south as a boundary moves into the region. Few to scattered high clouds look to remain for the morning hours Wednesday. Winds this evening subside and become more variable with the boundary moving through. By late in the TAF period, winds should become more east and northeasterly. VFR conditions should persist through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 62 82 59 86 / 0 0 20 10 FSM 58 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 58 87 61 87 / 0 0 10 10 BVO 58 81 55 87 / 10 0 20 10 FYV 58 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 59 80 52 82 / 10 0 0 10 MKO 59 83 58 85 / 0 0 10 10 MIO 58 79 54 82 / 0 0 10 20 F10 59 83 59 86 / 0 0 10 10 HHW 55 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.