textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Near record temperatures continue through the work week with Heat Advisories in effect at times.

- Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds, especially on Saturday across southeast Oklahoma.

- Low afternoon shower/storm chances mainly across far E OK and NW AR Thursday. Higher rain chances arrive this weekend as a cold front passes bringing cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Unseasonably strong upper ridge will build slightly westward and become centered nearer the local region by Thursday afternoon. This will maintain near persistent conditions which ensures record high temperatures will again be challenged Thursday afternoon. Convective temps will be reached by mid afternoon and a few showers and storms are again forecast primarily across far E OK and NW AR w/ locally strong downburst winds possible. The ongoing heat advisory has been expanded to reflect a similar footprint of conditions observed Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Little change in temperature trends expected on Friday however most guidance suggests dewpoints slightly lower. This may be optimistic but, at this point, we will take any opportunity for slightly lower heat stress conditions. Winds will increase on Saturday and higher likelihood of lower dewpoints exists as winds trend west of south allowing drier air to spread eastward. This will raise fire weather concerns especially across E OK including the larger timber fuels of SE OK.

The anticipated shortwave trough and associated cold front remain forecast to pass through the area Sunday through Sunday night. Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast with the frontal passage and a notable cool down for early next week. Temperatures may remain above normal despite the frontal passage but at least triple digit heat will be squashed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Scattered to broken diurnal mid and high clouds develop today over the CWA with mostly clear to passing high clouds forecast tonight. A slight chance of afternoon convection remains for mainly southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas TAF sites. With anticipated limited coverage and uncertainty of impacts to any one terminal, will hold off on mentioning in the TAFs. Within any storms, localized gusty/strong wind gusts are possible. Storm chances decrease after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Winds through the period remain light and become variable overnight. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions prevail through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 99 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 102 75 102 74 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 101 75 101 74 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 100 71 100 71 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 98 71 98 70 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 97 73 97 72 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 99 73 99 72 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 98 73 98 73 / 10 0 0 0 F10 100 73 100 72 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 98 73 98 72 / 20 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>058-060>071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.