textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 601 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Heat stress remains the primary concern into the weekend while localized fire weather concerns develop each afternoon.

- Weak cold front possible Sunday night into Monday with a slight chance of thunderstorms primarily north of Interstate 40.

- Any cooling with the front likely offset by higher dewpoints resulting in continued dangerous heat index values.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Near persistent forecast expected Friday with dangerous heat index values through much of the day. Dewpoints are currently several degrees drier this evening compared to 24hr prior and this subtle drying is noted upstream across central and east TX. Uncertain whether the lower dewpoints will persist through Friday, however blended guidance appears reasonable and has slightly drier conditions yet resultant heat index values remain similar to Friday and the heat headlines were adjusted accordingly. The ongoing dry and hot weather with gusty afternoon winds will continue to foster localized fire weather concerns. Expect the occurrence and behavior of fire starts to both increase with no meaningful rainfall. Finally, the corridor of showers and storms on the western periphery of the upper ridge will be nearer NE OK toward the Kansas border but chances remain very low that they spread far enough eastward to warrant mention.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Near persistence likely through Saturday before the upper ridge attempts to weaken slightly as a wave passes across the central CONUS on Sunday. The associated weak cold front will likely move into NE OK during the day Sunday and make little to no progress through Monday. Any post frontal cooling will be minimal and likely offset by moisture pooling along the boundary with the end result being continued high heat index values. Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible along and north of the boundary however widespread meaningful rainfall is unlikely. Ridging aloft strengthens again early next week and the boundary either lifts northward or becomes diffuse and a return to widespread hot and dry weather is expected through mid next week..

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Will maintain LLWS conditions at NE OK and NW AR sites through mid-morning. South to southwest winds will gust 20 to 25 kts during the day with some sct cu over NW AR and perhaps SE OK. LLWS conditions are expected again tonight mainly NE OK.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 104 82 104 83 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 104 77 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 103 79 102 80 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 105 78 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 101 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 101 77 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 102 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 101 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 F10 103 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 99 77 98 78 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-065-068-069- 071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>064- 066-067-070-154-254-354.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ055>064-066-067-070-154-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119- 120-129-219-220-229.