textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 642 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Red Flag Warning in effect much of northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon and evening for dangerous fire weather conditions.

- Record to near record heat Thursday.

- Strong cold front passes tonight and early Friday with strong north winds and low rain chances. Wind gusts greater than 40 mph will be possible in parts of northeast Oklahoma. Any rainfall amounts remain light.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Dangerous fire weather conditions will continue through this evening with near-critical fire spread rates for much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Critical spread rates (>280ft/min) may be observed for several hours this afternoon across portions of Osage and Pawnee counties. Humidities will likely be a tad higher than previous fire weather days due to increasing low-level moisture, but very dry fuels and near record high temperatures will likely make up for this. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening and burning is strongly discouraged. South winds gusting 30 to 40 mph will continue into early evening, with a few isolated gusts greater than 40 mph possible mainly near the Oklahoma-Kansas border. Winds subside slightly by late evening, ahead of an approaching cold front, which will move through the FA tonight through Friday morning.

A tight temperature/pressure gradient will provide strong north winds behind the front, with gusts between 30 to 45 mph for much of northeast Oklahoma and in the higher terrain of NW AR and SE OK. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued from midnight tonight until 7 PM Friday for portions of NE OK. These strong post-frontal winds along with the sharp wind shift will complicate any ongoing fire suppression efforts. Despite decreasing temperatures, strong winds and low relative humidity will foster yet another period of increased fire weather conditions Friday afternoon, especially along and north of Interstate 44. Winds gradually decrease by late Friday afternoon and evening.

Sufficient moisture will be in place to support the development of scattered showers with the frontal passage tonight into Friday. Additionally, marginal instability may support a weak thunderstorm or two in northern portions of the area tonight/early Friday morning. Wetting rainfall is unlikely, though some areas could receive a tenth of an inch or so.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Friday night will be quite chilly in the post-frontal airmass, with lows in the 30s and 40s...potentially near freezing along the Oklahoma-Kansas border. Otherwise, generally quiet and pleasant weather is expected for this weekend. High temperatures will be near average Saturday (60s) before increasing again on Sunday (upper 70s/lower 80s) as southerly flow returns to the area. The weather pattern will become more favorable for rain opportunities next week as western US troughing develops. Guidance varies in regards to specific details, but widespread rain chances arrive by mid to late week. Temperatures are likely to remain above average through the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours with LLWS developing at all sites. A cold front will sweep south across the area overnight with initially VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR by late tonight and Friday morning. A few showers may also occur late tonight into Friday. Conditions will improve from north to south late Friday morning and afternoon, with VFR conditions returning. Gusty south winds will temporarily diminish this evening before increasing out of the north following the passage of the cold front. Gusts will reach 25-35 knots at times late tonight into the day Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 52 61 37 66 / 20 20 0 0 FSM 60 69 40 66 / 10 40 0 0 MLC 58 65 43 67 / 10 20 0 0 BVO 48 61 32 65 / 40 10 0 0 FYV 51 62 36 65 / 20 50 0 0 BYV 51 59 36 63 / 30 50 0 0 MKO 55 63 40 65 / 10 20 0 0 MIO 49 58 33 64 / 50 30 0 0 F10 53 62 41 66 / 10 20 0 0 HHW 60 72 49 64 / 0 20 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>067.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067.

AR...None.