textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Rain showers continue in southeast Oklahoma and nearby west- central Arkansas into this evening and begin to exit by early Sunday morning.

- Fall-like temperatures this weekend will trend unseasonably warm next week.

- No rain is expected Monday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A weak elongated mid/upper level trof axis was positioned from southwest to northeast across the region early this afternoon. Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas was on the southern side of this axis, which was allowing for scattered rain showers to continue to lift north/northeast over these locations within the mean mid layer flow. Instability remained generally south of the Red River, thus keeping lightning potential less than 10 percent. Locally moderate rainfall was the main threat with these showers as the precipitable water values were near 2 inches north of the Red River.

Through mid evening scattered rain showers remain forecast for mainly Interstate 40 and south, with lesser potential northward up toward Interstate 44 as the mid/upper level trof axis holds in place. During the evening hours a shortwave, currently moving east/southeast over the northern Plains, will make its way through the Plains/Midwest, and push the trof axis southward overnight. In response, rain chances begin to sag southward and weaken overnight. At the surface a weak cold front associated with the shortwave will drop through the region and push the lingering light rain south/southeast of the CWA early morning Sunday.

Cloud cover over the CWA today will help to keep afternoon temperatures in the 70s for most locations. This cloud cover looks to begin scattering out late tonight into Sunday morning, especially over the northern portion of the CWA in the wake of the shortwave exiting the Plains. It remains uncertain just how far south clouds can scatter overnight, which will determine the potential for any fog development late tonight. For now, it looks as enough cloud cover could hold for far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas to limit visibility reduction. However, it could be close.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Cloud cover is progged to scatter out during the day Sunday while surface high pressure filters into the region. At the same time, light northerly winds are anticipated Sunday with high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s forecast. These conditions continue Monday with the southern Plains on the eastern periphery of a ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest. Light winds and mostly clear skies Sunday night and again Monday night will aid in low temperatures falling into the 50s for most locations. There is some potential for fog development again Sunday night/early Monday morning while surface high pressure is over the region.

Winds begin to transition back out of the south mid week with the ridge of high pressure out west trying to expand eastward over the southern Plains. This pattern looks to begin a warming trend with high temperatures climbing back above seasonal average through the second half of the week. Latest model solutions differ late week into next weekend, though a signal suggests a potential for a return of showers with an area of low pressure developing/lifting northeast over the southern Plains. Will continue to keep PoPs below mentionable criteria at the end of the forecast period, though its something to watch over the week ahead.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A mixture of VFR and MVFR, with pockets of IFR (due to moderate rain) near KMLC, continue early this afternoon. Current thinking is this mixture of mostly VFR and MVFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon. Light to moderate rain will persist across SE OK and into NW AR through the daytime. Some drizzle may end up mixing in with rain showers later this afternoon in NW AR. Included some PROB30 groups at all four AR TAF sites through early this evening. Rain and drizzle chances should end for all TAF sites after sunset this evening, but exact end timing may need to be amended. Generally, low cigs will hang around and MVFR is anticipated to prevail this evening and overnight tonight at most TAF sites, though intermittent VFR and IFR conditions are possible. Significant improvement to cigs/vsbys is expected from north to south around or just after sunrise Sunday morning, with VFR prevailing everywhere by late morning.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 62 80 56 80 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 65 84 59 84 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 65 82 57 83 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 59 80 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 58 79 53 78 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 59 80 54 78 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 63 81 56 81 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 58 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 F10 61 81 55 81 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 66 84 60 84 / 30 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.