textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1043 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Low clouds and fog will reform across much of the area tonight and Saturday morning.

- A cold front Sunday morning will result in continued below average cool weather and mostly cloudy skies. The warming trend starts Monday with clearing skies.

- Mild weather returns Tuesday and lasts through Thursday before another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end of the week.

- Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1042 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A band of mid cloud sweeping across the region in advance of an upper wave should clear the region by daybreak Saturday. Clearing skies will allow the cool and relatively moist airmass in place to radiate out and fog up. The HREF/HRRR have shown consistent signals for dense fog over a good portion of E OK and far NW AR. An advisory will be issued from midnight to 11 AM Saturday. With temps near freezing in some spots, will need to watch for the potential for freezing fog, though this potential appears to be low with dewpoints over much of the region near or above freezing.

The fog and low cloud will probably be slow to erode like it was today. Followed the lead of the previous shift and kept high temp forecast several degrees below the model blend (NBM).

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1042 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A cold front will sweep southeast across the region Saturday night into Sunday, bringing gusty NW winds and continued below average cool conditions. Precip chances with this system should stay to the north and east of the forecast area closer to the surface low pressure and shortwave trough aloft. A bank of low cloud is likely to surge into the area from the north behind the front and may be tough to get rid of. Like Saturday, went a few degrees below NBM for forecast highs Sunday, but a warming trend will get going Monday.

The broad upper trough over the eastern 2/3rds of the country this week will shift east next week. Downslope flow will bring a sharp warmup starting Tuesday, with above average warmth expected to persist through Thursday. Most of the ensemble forecast scenarios as well as the latest deterministic data suggest that the next front will arrive by Thursday night, with much cooler temps on the way for Friday.

The lack of upper troughing to our west in this upper pattern precludes much in the way of precipitation chances for our area over the next 7 days.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

High level clouds will give way to MVFR ceilings becoming LIFR/IFR conditions late tonight through much of Saturday morning across the CWA. Will continue with Tempo groups for timing of the greater LIFR potential at each TAF site. Late morning through the afternoon hours conditions look to slowly improve with scattered/broken MVFR ceilings mid afternoon into Saturday evening. There is also potential of broken MVFR ceilings returning to northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas toward the end of the TAF period as a dry cold front nears the region. Southerly winds are forecast through the period with the exception of variable/easterly winds anticipated for KFSM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 44 32 50 35 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 49 33 53 39 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 45 32 53 38 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 45 28 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 47 32 51 36 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 48 33 53 37 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 45 33 53 36 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 44 31 50 33 / 0 0 0 0 F10 48 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 43 33 53 39 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for OKZ049-053>071- 073-075.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for ARZ001-002-010- 011.