textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1144 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

- Widespread freezing temperatures early Friday morning.

- Higher grassland fire weather conditions develop Friday afternoon with gusty southerly winds.

- Dry and mild conditions continue into the weekend. Much above normal temperatures likely next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday Night) Issued at 1144 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Surface high pressure moves through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Thursday night and Friday morning with subsiding winds. Light winds combined with mostly clear conditions will allow for max radiational cooling and low temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s across the the CWA. The expected freeze early Friday morning is the only widespread freeze forecast through the next 7-day forecast for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Once surface high pressure departs the region, southerly low level return flow quickly sets up with southerly winds gusting 20 to 35 mph over much of the CWA Friday afternoon. These winds along with afternoon min relative humidity values generally in the 20 to 30 percent range will elevate fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. The area of greater concern is along and west of Highway 75 where the stronger winds and lower humidity are forecast to be co- located. Fire weather danger should improve Friday evening as humidity values recover, though winds look to remain breezy into the overnight hours Friday night.

Afternoon temperatures should respond with highs in the 50s for most locations. Low temperatures Friday night remain warm with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1144 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Breezy/gusty southerly winds remain common into Saturday ahead of another frontal boundary progged to move through the CWA Saturday afternoon/evening. Even with the return of southerly flow, the majority of the moisture should remain south and east of the CWA ahead of the front. Thus, latest indications continue to show the frontal passage dry Saturday. Ahead of the front temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s. Warm temperatures and breezy/gusty winds will help to create limited fire weather danger both ahead of the front, and behind the front with drier air moving back into the region.

Cooler conditions and lighter winds are anticipated Sunday while surface high pressure moves overhead. These conditions are short- lived once surface high pressure exits Monday morning. Breezy to gusty southerly winds and a warming trend quickly return once again and continue through much of next week. Southerly low level flow is forecast to become gusty during the middle part of next week, which aids in afternoon temperatures Tuesday through Christmas Day well above seasonal average with highs in the 70s. Potential exists for near to record breaking temperatures Christmas Day/Thursday. At this time, precipitation chances next week look to remain minimal while an expansive ridge of high pressure holds over the southern Plains.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period in all locations. Northwest wind gusts will drop off across NW AR over the next few hours with light and variable winds overnight. Winds increase from the south during the morning into afternoon Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 28 57 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 30 57 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 28 59 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 23 56 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 24 53 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 26 52 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 27 56 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 25 51 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 F10 28 58 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 32 58 45 69 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.