textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Hot and humid conditions Thursday with large area of heat advisory conditions.

- Isolated to widely scattered storms Thursday through Friday generally along and north of Interstate 40.

- Storm chances trend higher late Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals with the increase in daily rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Low level jet has intensified with early signs of high based convection developing near the OK / KS border region. This convection is expected to expand and spread east through Thursday morning before diminishing by early afternoon. While early day cloud cover and/out outflow may temporarily slow the daily warm up, the veered low level flow and placement of the low level thermal ridge favors temps still reaching the warmest levels of the week area wide by afternoon. Dewpoints were vastly under forecast on Wednesday, and while they are likely to be some lower on Thursday, the forecast will favor the higher value scenarios with the resultant heat index values supportive of a broad region heat advisory. Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible Thursday afternoon into the evening and somewhat stronger flow aloft would support a severe risk primarily due to downburst winds.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Convection may again expand north of the local forecast area Thursday night however confidence is low in how far south these storms would spread into the day Friday. Forecasts will retain low chances generally north of Interstate 40. The slow moving cold front will struggle to make southward advance into the region, however the upper ridge will continue to amplify across the western states and waves passing on the ridge periphery will aid in eventually pushing the boundary into the region late Friday or during the day Saturday. This boundary will then act as a favored corridor for daily shower and storm chances through the weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with deep moisture and slower storm motions.

The upper ridge will intensify as it re-centers over the central and northern Plains by early next week with its influence gradually expanding southward into the local area. Lower daily rain chances and warmer temps are forecast by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

High based cloud cover expands across the CWA tonight, and should remain scattered to broken across the CWA Thursday. Also tonight into Thursday morning, scattered showers/storms developing within the low level jet are forecast across parts of northeast Oklahoma with potential to reach far northwest Arkansas Thursday morning. Have added VCSH to KBVO/KTUL/KRVS with a tempo group for convection at KBVO tonight. The high base of this activity should help to limit amount of precip reaching the surface, though there is a limited potential for some gusty winds. During the day Thursday, a slight chance of convection remains forecast, though with uncertainty of coverage and impact to any one terminal will hold off on mentioning in the TAF. Winds through the period remain southerly and become breezy during the day Thursday. The exception is KFSM where an easterly wind component is forecast tonight. VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 98 79 97 78 / 20 20 20 30 FSM 98 78 98 78 / 10 10 20 10 MLC 97 80 96 79 / 10 10 10 10 BVO 97 76 95 74 / 30 20 20 40 FYV 93 76 93 75 / 20 20 20 30 BYV 94 75 91 73 / 20 20 20 40 MKO 96 78 96 78 / 20 20 20 20 MIO 93 76 93 74 / 30 30 20 50 F10 97 79 97 78 / 20 10 10 10 HHW 97 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276- 354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ119-120-129-219-220-229.