textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 730 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- Above average temperatures are expected over the next 7 days.

- Low to medium rain chances develop tonight into Friday morning, but most rain totals are expected to remain light. Overall, dry conditions are likely to persist into next week.

- Fire weather potential likely increases by early next week with breezy afternoon winds, very warm temperatures, and low relative humidity values.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Early morning surface analysis places a weak surface boundary/front near the KS/OK border. Meanwhile, pressures are falling on the High Plains ahead of a storm system that will affect the region tonight into Friday. The 12Z HRRR suggests the boundary will stall near I-44 later this morning before washing out/retreating and a light south wind prevails over much of the area east of the High Plains low pressure. An area of low cloud over KS/MO is not expected to make it into the forecast area before scattering out during the day. Forecast temps have trended upward since yesterday, though there will probably be some north- south gradient across the area with some lingering influence from the weak boundary. Increasing mid and high cloud this afternoon may keep us from reaching max warming potential however.

Lacy

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

A weak surface boundary across the northern part of the forecast area will result in light and variable winds Thursday. Unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail, but it will be a bit cooler north of the aforementioned boundary. Despite increasing high cloudiness, afternoon highs will range from the upper 50s to the upper 60s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

An upper level disturbance will move across the area Thursday night and early Friday. A weak surface low is also forecast to move east across the Oklahoma/Texas border area. The result will be an increasing chance for a band of showers to develop overnight Thursday night and linger into Friday morning across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The highest rain chances look to be somewhere near or a bit north of the Interstate 40 corridor.

Temperatures will cool slightly for Friday and Saturday in the wake of this system, but will begin to rebound Sunday as south winds return. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for much of next week, with some places possibly approaching record highs. An uptick in fire weather concerns will likely occur, especially on any days where winds become breezy. Rain chances may increase during the latter half of next week as another storm system approaches the area, but model disparity is large at this time range.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 425 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Existing deck of IFR clouds in northeast Kansas and into northern Missouri continues to sink slowly southward, but relative humidity progs show that the deck should remain north of the terminals. Will give it a low and unmentionable chance of sneaking southward into mainly BVO this morning. After 06Z, light showers should develop and lift northeastward across the area. Will carry a VCSH at all sites except BVO, with no category impact. Wind speeds under 10 kts are expected to continue through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 63 44 57 36 / 0 40 20 0 FSM 67 47 60 42 / 0 30 20 0 MLC 68 47 64 40 / 0 40 10 0 BVO 59 37 54 30 / 0 30 20 0 FYV 65 44 57 38 / 0 30 30 0 BYV 64 45 52 38 / 0 20 30 0 MKO 65 47 60 38 / 0 40 20 0 MIO 58 42 54 34 / 0 20 20 0 F10 67 46 61 37 / 0 50 10 0 HHW 67 48 67 42 / 0 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.