textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Low chance of showers in northwest AR and far northeast OK tonight, otherwise dry for several days.

- A cold front will drop temperatures back near normal mid week. Potentially stronger cold front this weekend or early next week.

- Fire weather concerns will remain raised on both Wednesday and Friday due to gusty winds behind dry frontal passages.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Downslope component to sfc winds continues today with a sfc ridge axis oriented along Gulf Coast into the Southern Rockies and low to the north. Temps will climb well above normal as a result with winds gusting around 20 mph in some locations resulting in some limited fire spread potential this afternoon, especially west of HIghway 75 where humidity will be lower.

By this evening a NW flow shortwave will drop south and induce a few light rain showers from northwest AR into far northeast OK. Given very dry low levels the overall chance of measurable remains low and limited to just a few hundredths of an inch. This will also push a cold front south overnight with a shift to northwest winds.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Cooler air will continue to surge across the region Wednesday with gusty northwest winds 25-35 mph. While temps will be cooler and RH is not expected to drop to critical levels, some high-res data suggests a corridor of lower dew points Wed afternoon into parts of eastern OK. Should this happen a zone of heightened fire weather concerns could develop. Temperatures will be closer to normal for highs Wed with colder lows for Wed night in the upper teens/20s.

The progressive nature of the pattern continues with the sfc high quickly pushing south and return to south winds by Thursday. This is expected to be followed quickly by another dry cold front on Friday with winds again becoming rather gusty from the northwest with fire weather concerns increasing to some degree, though not critical.

Beyond that the forecast becomes much more uncertain in terms of temperatures with ensembles still showing a large spread, especially by Sunday. Pattern remains dry at least, but worth noting that there has been at least some trend in a more amplified upper pattern next week, which implies some potential for a more significant cold air surge through the middle part of the country at some point.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period at the E OK sites and into tomorrow morning at the W AR sites. Potential for low clouds remains highest after daybreak tomorrow at the far NW AR terminals, with a lower chance at FSM. Will leave out the mention at FSM given the increased uncertainty there, but still carrying a lower ceiling than at the OK sites. A low chance of showers exists mainly at the NW AR sites, but potential is too low at any one point to mention in the terminals for now. Gusty north to northwest winds will exist following a cold frontal passage early tomorrow morning, with gusts from 20 to 25 kts expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 68 43 50 24 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 69 44 53 24 / 0 10 0 0 MLC 69 44 53 24 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 66 39 49 21 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 66 39 47 19 / 0 20 10 0 BYV 65 41 46 21 / 0 40 10 0 MKO 68 44 51 23 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 63 41 46 20 / 0 30 0 0 F10 69 44 52 24 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 66 43 56 26 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.