textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

- Rain and thunder chances increase Thursday into Friday, and remain forecast daily into the first half of next week with periods of heavy rain.

- Abnormally cool weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Low level moisture and fairly light winds within the lower levels underneath weak mid level high pressure moving through the region Wednesday will allow for low level cloud cover to remain into tonight over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon of upper 50s to mid 70s from north to south are anticipated. These conditions should keep temperatures from changing all that much tonight with lows in the 50s/60s.

Overnight tonight, as the mid level high exits to the east/northeast, mid level flow becomes more southwestward which will aid in lifting a shortwave out of Mexico and into Texas Thursday morning. Increasing warm advection ahead of this wave combined with ample amounts of low level moisture bring the return of rain showers to eastern Oklahoma late tonight and spreading eastward over the CWA Thursday morning. Instability looks to be mainly elevated and remain quite limited. Thus will only carry slight chances of thunder into Thursday morning for the western half of the CWA.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Rain showers and slight to low end chance thunderstorm potentials spread over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day Thursday and continue Thursday night while the shortwave lifts northeast into the region. Latest data continues to highlight marginal instability Thursday/Thursday night, and in response severe weather is not anticipated. However, with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches forecast, a heavy rain threat exists through Thursday night across the CWA. At this time, widespread half inch to 1.5 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts topping 3 inches are forecast into Friday morning. This rainfall on top of recent rains could increase flood concerns into Friday.

Rain showers taper off and exit during the day Friday with the departing wave. Clouds cover and rain showers should continue the cooler conditions Thursday. As the backside of the disturbance exits Friday, cloud cover tries to become more scattered over eastern Oklahoma with warmer temperatures in the 70s to low 80s Friday afternoon.

Friday afternoon/evening storm chances increase out west with a developing vorticity maxima moving out into the Texas Panhandles. This vort max makes its way eastward Friday night into the CWA ahead of a frontal boundary sagging southeast into the region late Friday night/Saturday. The combination of these features along with slightly greater instability increases thunderstorm chances for the CWA Friday night/Saturday. Again a heavy rain threat exists with also an isolated to limited severe potential.

The frontal boundary stalls over the region, and then lifts back northward Sunday from a broad area of low pressure slowly spreading across the southern Plains. Latest model solutions continue to indicate this area of low pressure becoming more of a cut off low that holds over the region into the first half of next week before getting picked up with a longwave trof developing over the western CONUS. Thus, shower and scattered thunderstorm chances remain forecast Sunday through Wednesday across the CWA. At this time, the greater potential could be during the afternoon/evening hours each day, though more precise details are still to be determined. A locally heavy rain threat as well as an isolated/limited severe potential exists each day into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A shallow cool airmass in place near the surface, brought in by the cold front yesterday, continues to bring low (some IFR) cigs to the region. The latest guidance and satellite imagery indicates that the cool wedge will gradually erode from south to north today into tonight. As such, expect climbing cigs and improvement in flight conditions for the first half of the forecast. An upper storm system coming in from the west will bring rain and storms on Thursday. Cigs will be on the decline at the E OK sites during the latter half of the forecast back to MVFR. Some brief MVFR may also appear at the NW AR sites Thu morning, but a trend back to VFR cigs is expected there later in the day. The latest HRRR keeps the bulk of the shower activity to the west of the TAF sites until just beyond the scope of this forecast, however kept the going prob30 mention for the E OK sites for the last 6 hours.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 59 70 63 78 / 30 90 90 40 FSM 63 77 65 79 / 10 60 90 50 MLC 63 73 64 81 / 20 90 90 20 BVO 55 69 60 78 / 30 80 90 50 FYV 60 75 63 75 / 20 60 90 80 BYV 58 73 62 73 / 10 60 90 90 MKO 60 72 63 79 / 30 90 90 40 MIO 57 71 62 74 / 20 70 90 80 F10 60 71 62 79 / 30 90 90 20 HHW 65 74 64 81 / 20 90 90 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.