textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 952 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Thunderstorm chances with limited severe potential Wednesday morning as a cold front moves through the area.

- Unsettled weather continues into the weekend. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may develop Friday into Saturday.

- Warm and dry weather returns Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 952 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A cold front will gradually push through the area during the overnight hours, eventually stalling along the southeast edge of the forecast area during the afternoon Wednesday. Most CAMs are in good agreement that for most of the overnight hours we will mostly see scattered showers along and behind this boundary. Then, towards dawn and the remainder of the morning, increased thunderstorm activity will develop. There will be sufficient elevated instability to allow for the possibility of a few marginally severe hail storms. These would tend to focus across northeast OK if they do develop.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through the day, gradually shifting more to the southeast with time. While CAMs generally agree on this outcome, there is still a decent amount of uncertainty on the corridor of heaviest shower activity as well as how persistent it will be. But in general, much of the area will see measurable rain, some of which may be briefly heavy. The best bet for heavy rain will be east-central OK into northwest AR. Many locations will see a quarter inch up to an inch, but locally higher totals are expected. Temperatures will be cool behind the front, in the 50s to low 60s, with upper 60s to even mid 70s for the southeastern portions of the forecast area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 952 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Some shower activity will probably linger into Thursday morning before totally diminishing. The cold front will turn into a warm front, surging north through the forecast area. Temperatures will quickly rebound Wednesday, with widespread 70s. Humid air will also begin moving north, with dew points into the 60s by the evening.

Most guidance has honed in on a weak feature kicking off some showers and potentially thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning. This will be important because it will affect the convective environment on Friday. For several days Friday has been flagged for more significant convective potential due to anomalously high moisture and instability in addition to a well positioned strong shortwave that will bring deep lift and shear to the area. If the previously mentioned system lingers, potentially not much would happen, but of course if storms are able to get going Friday they could become severe, perhaps significantly so. In this case all severe hazards as well as heavy rainfall may occur. We will continue to monitor the potential. The cold front pushing through Saturday will keep rain chances going. Some areas may begin to see minor flood concerns after several rounds of heavy rainfall, though for now this appears to be a lesser concern.

After the front moves through, we dry out Sunday into early next week. However the airmass will still be mild, recovering quite quickly. Highs will again surge into the 70s and 80s. Presumably the rainfall will keep the fire weather potential down for at least a few days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR and IFR conditions remain forecast to spread over the CWA tonight into Wednesday morning and remain common through the period while a slow moving frontal boundary sags into the region. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move into the CWA during the morning hours with continued redevelopment off and on through the end of the TAF period, especially for southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Severe potentials and a heavy rain threat exist with the stronger thunderstorms Wednesday mid morning through the evening hours. Depending on the exact location of where the front holds up will continue with variable winds for southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, and west to north winds for northeast Oklahoma Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 53 59 49 72 / 30 90 50 50 FSM 61 75 60 76 / 40 80 90 80 MLC 62 72 56 75 / 20 80 90 80 BVO 48 58 43 71 / 50 100 30 30 FYV 60 70 55 73 / 40 100 90 80 BYV 60 69 56 72 / 40 90 90 80 MKO 58 66 54 73 / 30 90 80 70 MIO 52 59 49 70 / 50 100 60 50 F10 59 65 54 73 / 30 90 80 70 HHW 63 74 61 76 / 10 70 90 70

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.