textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1236 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Areawide medium to high chances (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected, but heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible.

- Daily rain and storm chances continue through the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary concern, which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly below average over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1047 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A slow moving trough axis will gradually lift into the area today. As it does so, shower and thunderstorm activity will increase from south to north. Decent low to mid level convergence beneath subtle upper level diffluence will act on a moist and somewhat unstable atmosphere. As a result widespread showers and thunderstorms will blossom into the afternoon and evening hours. Although severe weather is not expected, areas of heavy rainfall are likely, particularly with thunderstorms. Most areas will see between 0.25 to 1 inch of rain today through tonight, but locally higher totals are expected. Precipitation will continue through the overnight hours, but most guidance shows it becoming increasingly confined towards central OK with time. Highs today will rise to the upper 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows mostly in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1047 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

During the day Thursday, the upper level circulation will be sitting nearly overhead with little movement. This will result in scattered showers and storms throughout the day across the forecast area. It's commonly the case that there is a less storm activity right under the upper low, with better forcing around its periphery, as such the best precipitation chances would be expected to be across far eastern OK and northwest AR. Either way, it will be another temperate day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows again in the mid to upper 60s. Friday will feature more of the same, except that the circulation will be weakening as it slowly churns eastward. In the end, it will mean another day with similar temps and precipitation patterns, except that precipitation will be winding down from west to east as shortwave ridging pokes in from the west.

On Saturday another upper level trough will clip the area to the northwest. It will move just close enough to slightly increase the upper level flow/lift with some additional storm activity expected in the region. Models then develop ridging just to the west of the area Sunday into Monday with modest northwesterly flow setting in. Guidance is mixed on storm development, but there is at least the chance of a few clusters of storms during this period. Ensemble guidance then suggests upper level ridging will become too strong for additional storm activity by the middle of next week, with temperatures warming above normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR to occasionally MVFR conditions will be common through this afternoon and evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact all sites through the afternoon into the evening. Later tonight, IFR ceilings are likely to develop at all sites and persist through much of Thursday morning. Some fog will also be possible, especially at the northwest Arkansas sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 65 79 65 82 / 80 70 40 30 FSM 67 82 66 84 / 80 50 30 50 MLC 66 82 66 85 / 50 40 30 40 BVO 64 78 62 82 / 80 80 40 20 FYV 65 78 64 80 / 70 70 50 70 BYV 64 76 63 78 / 70 70 50 80 MKO 65 79 65 82 / 80 50 40 50 MIO 66 78 64 80 / 70 80 60 60 F10 64 80 64 83 / 70 50 40 40 HHW 66 83 66 85 / 30 20 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.