textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 513 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Much colder air moves in this afternoon and evening. Single digit wind chill values north of I-40 Sunday morning.

- Cold Sunday with quick warm up to above normal temperatures by mid week. - Low rain chances east on Thursday otherwise dry weather prevails.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday Night) Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

The strong push of Arctic air, currently moving southeast through Kansas, remains on track to move into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. Widespread low level clouds, that had streamed northward this morning within the 925-mb southerly flow, are expected to remain common across much of the CWA this afternoon/evening as low level flow aloft weakens ahead of the approaching elevated frontal passage. In response, afternoon temperatures are anticipated to not warm all that much more through mid afternoon, and then should begin to fall from north to south late afternoon/evening with the arrival of the Arctic air. By early evening, temperatures of mid 20s in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas to mid 30s near the Red River are forecast

Once the the Arctic air filters into the CWA, associated north/northeasterly winds with gusts of 15-25 mph also spread through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. These winds should weaken some overnight as Canadian surface high pressure slides southeast over the central U.S. As surface high pressure makes its way southeast, cloud cover is currently progged to begin scattering out/exiting to the southeast. There are hints within the short-term data for mesoscale cloud streaks oriented from north/northeast to south/southwest holding on into overnight hours. These could line up within the stronger north/northeast flow aloft over area lakes. Also, latest data indicates that the greater frontogenetic forcing aloft and omega should exit with the elevated frontal boundary ahead of the development of these cloud streaks. Just something to watch as the evening/night progresses.

The main impact this evening into Sunday morning will be the falling temperatures and breezy winds creating wind chill values in the teens to upper 30s by mid evening, and single digits to teens Sunday morning. The coldest conditions develop along/near the Kansas and Missouri borders tonight with low temperatures in the mid teens and wind chill values around zero degrees. Across the rest of the CWA, low temperatures of upper teens to mid 20s are forecast tonight.

During the day Sunday, Canadian surface high pressure moves through the region and exits Sunday night. Thus, cold conditions remain Sunday with high temps around 30 degrees north to around 40 degrees south. Once surface high departs off to the east/southeast, low level flow quickly returns out of the southwest which could aid in surface temperatures slightly warming late Sunday night over parts of eastern Oklahoma. Across western Arkansas, and still underneath the western periphery of the surface high, should remain the colder locations Sunday night. Either way, low temperatues Sunday night of upper teens and 20s are forecast.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

More west/northwesterly upper level flow returns Monday and looks to remain common through mid week as split flow develops from a broad area of low pressure over the Desert Southwest. These conditions will aid in a quick warm up across the region with temperatures climbing back into the 50s/60s Tuesday and Wednesday. The main energy associated with the low dives southeast into Mexico, while a piece of the mid level wave moves through the southern Plains Tuesday. An increase in cloud cover is forecast with this disturbance moving south of the CWA.

In the wake of this shortwave, a more defined wave and associated cold front are progged to move into/through the Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Increasing moisture ahead of the front could allow for rain chances to return to the eastern half of the CWA Wednesday night/Thursday ahead of the frontal passage. Behind this next front, temperatures only look to cool slightly Friday. Looking at the far extended model solutions, there are indications of another disturbance/front potentially impacting the region next week. Will have to wait and see how this evolves.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

MVFR conditions continue across majority of the TAF sites with IFR ceilings at KXNA and KROG. Arctic air is moving into northern most terminals and is expected to hold these conditions in place through the evening with worsening flying conditions for KFSM and KMLC as the colder air arrives. Guidance favors breaks in the low clouds across northeast OK by midnight with VFR conditions for the remainder of the terminals 08-10Z. Winds will remain gusty from the north through much of the night before settling down near daybreak as high pressure builds into the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 17 33 22 49 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 25 38 23 48 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 21 36 23 49 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 14 30 19 49 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 15 31 19 46 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 13 29 18 46 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 18 35 23 48 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 13 30 19 45 / 0 0 0 0 F10 19 34 22 49 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 27 42 24 48 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.