textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 - Cooler temperatures through Monday.

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather returns Tuesday through Saturday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns develop Tuesday with the return of warm weather and gusty south to southwest winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday Night) Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to slide across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Monday with light winds and some passing high clouds common. These conditions will continue the ongoing cooler temperatures with Monday morning lows in the teens and 20s and highs again in the 40s to lower 50s. Overnight Monday night, surface high exits off to the southeast allowing for south to southwesterly flow to quickly fill in behind with breezy conditions expected early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures Monday night in the mid 20s to mid 30s are forecast.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

South to southwesterly winds increase during the day Tuesday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph common over the CWA. Greater moisture advection into the region is forecast to be delayed until Tuesday evening/night, which will allow afternoon min humidity values to fall into the 20 to 30 percent range as warmer high temperatures are expected. In response, elevated fire weather concerns are anticipated Tuesday over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Burning should likely be avoided Tuesday. Fire weather danger should decrease Tuesday nigh with weakening winds and increasing low level moisture while surface low pressure builds into the region.

A surface boundary sets up over the region Wednesday while surface low pressure remains common. Much of the CWA looks to be south of this boundary, which will aid in continued above seasonal average temperatures and low level moisture advection into the region. Wednesday night a shortwave is progged to drop southeastward through the Plains and provide low chances of light rain to parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Elevated instability is forecast to be limited, though higher mid level lapse rates and an increasing low level jet ahead of the shortwave could create an isolated potential for a few lightning strikes over the higher terrain of far northwest Arkansas. For now will keep thunder potentials just below mentionable criteria until forecaster confidence increases. The shortwave exits Thursday morning with breezy northerly winds spreading over the CWA Thursday afternoon.

Northerly flow is short-lived while surface high quickly moves over the CWA. Southerly winds and warmer temperatures are again forecast Friday into Saturday, which could create limited fire weather dangers each afternoon. Beyond Friday, latest model solutions continue to differ with a wave and cold front moving out into the Plains over the weekend into early next week. For now will continue with slight chances of rain Saturday night into Monday, though moisture return at this time looks to be limited. Will just have to wait and see how things progress through the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 48 22 49 35 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 50 24 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 51 24 52 36 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 46 16 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 44 17 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 42 18 43 28 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 48 22 49 33 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 43 17 43 29 / 0 0 0 0 F10 50 22 50 35 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 53 27 55 34 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.