textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 421 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

- Warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through the remainder of the week. Temps rise back above normal by Wednesday.

- Low precipitation chances are forecast over the next 7 days, with the best chance, 20 percent, coming late Thursday night into Friday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

After a brutally cold start to the day, surface ridging will slide south over southeast TX today, resulting in south/southwest winds returning to the area by late mid-late morning. As such, this will commence a warming trend that will persist through the remainder of the workweek. For today, very pleasant weather will transpire, with temperatures hovering close to seasonal average underneath abundant sunshine. Some limited fire weather concerns may arise this afternoon, specifically near and west of Highway 75 in northeast OK, where minimum RH values will fall to 20 percent or lower with occasional to frequent southwest gusts around 20 mph. Otherwise and elsewhere, low-impact weather is expected.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

In short, mild and mostly dry weather will prevail through the long-term period. Low-level downslope flow will allow temperatures to rise each day through the remainder of the week. The positive PNA pattern, with upper-level ridging overspreading much of the Intermountain West, will hold in place through at least New Years Eve. This pattern is forecast to get disrupted somewhat on New Years Day as an upper-level cut-off low/shortwave trough moves onshore over the West Coast. This disturbance will eventually ride the ridge over the Rockies, briefly de-amplifying the pattern and is expected to move across the Southern Plains Friday afternoon/evening. Similarly to what was stated in the previous discussion, ensemble cluster data and the ECMWF continues to show the best /low/ chance of QPF, generally across north and eastern portions of the CWA Friday morning. Will continue to carry low mentionable PoPs /20 percent or less/ for majority of the area. Surface low will scoot across the Red River on Friday and help drop a weak cold front through the forecast area. Light to moderate northerly winds will persist through Saturday evening before the surface ridge axis shifts east of the area and southerly winds return late in the weekend and into early next week. In turn, this will bring back abnormally warm temperatures back to the area with daytime highs reaching the low-mid 60s and overnight lows dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s for both Sunday and Monday.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 421 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with increasing high clouds during the latter half. Winds will become west to southwesterly during the late morning into the afternoon, with speeds under 10 kts expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 49 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 47 29 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 50 31 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 49 27 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 46 29 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 44 30 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 47 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 44 27 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 F10 50 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 47 30 58 35 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.