textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1159 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

- A weak cold front moves through this afternoon and evening, bringing scattered light to moderate rain showers; Hazardous weather is not expected.

- Pleasant and largely dry conditions persist Friday and through much of next week, with a warming trend by early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1159 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Midday surface observations show an ill-defined cold front currently draped near or just south of Highway 412. This boundary is projected to advance southeastward across eastern Oklahoma through the remainder of the day before exiting our far southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening. Ahead of the boundary, light and variable winds continue with temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and lower to mid 70s under closer to the Red River.

Hi-resolution models and the NBM are in strong agreement that the greatest coverage and highest precipitation chances (50-90%) will remain focused near and west of US Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Rainfall amounts will generally remain light to moderate, with most locations picking up between a tenth of an inch to half an inch, though high-res solutions indicate locally higher amounts in isolated spots. Deep-layer instability is exceptionally meager (MUCAPE mostly under 300 J/kg); therefore, thunder is generally unlikely but remains a non-zero possibility, especially across portions of east-central Oklahoma where slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates clip the area.

Behind the front this evening, northerly breezes of 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts around 25 mph will usher in a drier continental airmass. Showers will slowly end from northwest to southeast tonight, with skies temporarily clearing after midnight before additional stratus streams in from the north around sunrise Friday. Diminishing winds late and clearing skies will allow temperatures overnight to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with mid 40s to near 50 degrees across southeast Oklahoma.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1159 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Broad mid-level ridging builds into the central CONUS on Friday and persists through the weekend as expansive surface high pressure settles over the Southern Plains. Global deterministic models and ensemble suites show strong agreement on a dry and tranquil weather pattern prevailing through early to mid-next week.

High temperatures on Friday will be highly dependent on cloud cover, especially north of I-40. Low-level stratus will be advecting in from the north Friday morning, reaching the I-40 corridor around midday before mixing gradually breaks the cloud cover up through the afternoon. With the cloud cover, temperature may struggle to get out of the 50s for most areas across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, whereas temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60s where there is less cloud coverage. Temperatures on Saturday will be quite seasonable, topping out in the lower to mid-60s beneath partly cloudy/partly sunny skies. Overnight lows Friday night and Saturday night will fall into the mid to upper 30s across typical valley locations and low 40s elsewhere. A few locations may briefly flirt with freezing temperatures. Patchy frost may develop both nights.

By Sunday into the middle of next week, the surface ridge axis shifts east toward the Ohio Valley, re-establishing southerly return flow across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This will support a gradual moderating trend, with afternoon highs climbing back into the upper 60s to mid 70s Monday through next Thursday. Operational and ensemble NBM PoPs remain virtually zero CWA-wide through the end of the forecast period, with no hazardous weather systems on the horizon.

Mejia

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Showers will continue to spread eastward across northeast OK this afternoon, with generally light rain expected and ceilings remaining VFR, though brief MVFR vis may occur. Probability of precip will drop off with south and east extent, thus western AR and SE OK terminals continue to be covered with a PROB30. Skies will clear fairly quick early tonight, however confidence increasing in a period of low ceilings spreading across NE OK and NW AR after 12z Friday resulting in MVFR conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 43 58 39 60 / 70 0 0 0 FSM 50 65 42 64 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 46 62 41 63 / 30 0 0 0 BVO 38 56 33 59 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 38 59 33 61 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 44 57 38 58 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 45 60 38 61 / 50 0 0 0 MIO 42 56 35 58 / 10 0 0 0 F10 45 59 39 61 / 70 0 0 0 HHW 52 68 45 68 / 20 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.