textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Breezy northerly winds will continue Monday morning, resulting in wind chills in the single digits and teens.

- Cold through the day Monday and Monday night with temperatures more typical of late December; a slow warmup beginning Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Very low precipitation chances over the next 7 days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1030 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

The robust cold front has now push well south and east of the forecast area late this evening. In its wake, northwest winds remain on the breezy side, though not nearly as breezy and gusty as what was observed Sunday afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 25 mph will remain possible for the majority of the area through sunrise and up to 35 mph in the higher terrain areas. The breezy winds will cause temperatures to feel brutally cold, with wind chill values dipping into the single digits and teens for much of the area by sunrise.

Despite mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, modest cold air advection will pursue through the day Monday and will result in unseasonably cool temperatures for the region. Expect daytime high temperatures generally reaching the mid-upper 30s for most areas, closer to 40 degrees south of I-40. With persistent moderate northerly winds, temperatures will feel more like the teens in the morning and the 20s through the afternoon. Surface high pressure begins to settle in this afternoon and evening and northerly winds will eventually decrease through the afternoon.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1030 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Strong radiational cooling will take place tonight (Monday night) as a strong 1034-1037mb ridge axis shifts over east OK and northwest AR. Mostly clear skies and near calm winds will help cause temperatures to fall into the teens and lower 20s across the forecast area by sunrise Tuesday.

A slow warming trend will begin Tuesday with mid-level ridging building over the western CONUS as dry northwest flow continues locally aloft through at least the daytime New Years Day. Overall, both daytime and nighttime temperatures will stay about 5-10 degrees above average through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Precipitation chances will be very slim through much of the long-term period. The only (weak) signals for low rain chances will come with a pair of shortwave troughs ejecting off the High Plains, which quickly move across the Southern Plains. The first wave will move through Thursday night into Friday morning, quickly followed by another wave Friday evening/night. Ensemble data from the LREF only show probabilities of rain at 20% or less for the area during this time period. Will maintain NBM probabilities (non-mentionable, <20%) PoPs for now until there are better signals from ensembles and deterministic models. Otherwise, low-impact weather and abnormally warm temperatures will persist into the upcoming weekend.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Skies have cleared this evening, other than a few high clouds. Expect VFR conditions all sites through this forecast period, as high pressure builds southward through the Plains tonight and Monday. Surface wind will remain a little gusty through Monday, and then settle below 8 knots at all sites after 29/23z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 22 37 18 50 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 23 39 20 47 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 25 40 18 50 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 20 36 13 49 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 17 34 13 46 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 16 32 16 44 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 23 37 17 47 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 19 34 14 44 / 0 0 0 0 F10 23 39 18 50 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 29 42 21 47 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.