textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 549 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 - Very hot conditions through Wednesday followed by some slight cooling, but temperatures will remain above average into the weekend.

- A few isolated showers may occur at times this week, particularly Wednesday to Thursday, but overall dry weather will continue.

- Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying fuels and periods of gusty winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

In the near term, the main impact will be chances for shower and storm development through the early morning hours across portions of far eastern Oklahoma and more likely into west central Arkansas. A weak low level jet axis will interact with a weak mid level wave, likely leading to at least isolated development of showers and storms in the Arkansas River Valley. A notable low level moisture axis and boundary is also evident across this area, likely left over from convective activity earlier on Monday. The expectation is that any showers or storms would focus near this boundary through the overnight period. Widespread rainfall appears unlikely, but a few downpours and possible breezy winds could accompany any more robust updrafts. Model soundings show at least moderate elevated instability is still present across western Arkansas, while shear remains relatively weak through the layer. Nevertheless, a stronger storm or two is in the realm of possibility as this activity shifts south and east through the night. This activity should dissipate or move out of the area around or shortly after daybreak as the LLJ relaxes and the wave exits the local region.

Very hot and mostly dry conditions then return to the area on Tuesday as upper ridging continues over the area. Highs will push back above triple digits for most locations with some areas possibly hitting 105 plus along and west of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma. The zone of rainfall from Monday could help hold highs back a degree or two as dewpoints stay more elevated. Either way, the heat stress will be high again during the afternoon and thus a Extreme Heat Warning continues for much of eastern Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. Any rain chances will be very minimal through the day, but a few isolated showers or storms during the afternoon across far eastern Oklahoma or more likely in west central Arkansas within the terrain regions. This activity would remain very isolated and dissipate toward sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue into Wednesday as a weak boundary approaches the region from the northwest. This could help kick the heat up a notch south of the boundary, where locations could see their hottest day of the year as highs approach 105 to 110 during the afternoon. Guidance trends continue to be slightly faster with the frontal position into Wednesday afternoon, pushing to the I-44 corridor around early to mid afternoon. This would likely keep the hottest temps south of Tulsa, though highs will still be in the triple digits pretty much areawide. Scattered thunderstorm chances will also increase by late Wednesday into Thursday across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a shortwave tracks through the central states into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Most places look to remain dry through the period though.

Ridging generally remains centered just to our west through the weekend, while gradually drifting eastward. Therefore, hot, dry, and occasionally breezy conditions will persist into early next week. A couple more waves moving around the eastern periphery of the ridge could generate a few isolated showers across northwest Arkansas through the weekend, but chances are very low at this point. Fire weather potential will continue to gradually increase as fuels become increasingly stressed as most areas will see little rain through the next week.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast, after some light morning fog at KBVO and KFYV burns off this morning. The main change to the 06Z forecast was to add a line tonight for LLWS conditions, which are expected at all sites around or aft 06Z.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 104 82 106 76 / 0 0 10 10 FSM 105 77 107 78 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 107 82 107 79 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 103 75 101 69 / 0 0 10 30 FYV 101 77 103 74 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 99 77 102 73 / 0 0 10 30 MKO 104 79 107 76 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 99 77 100 71 / 0 0 0 40 F10 105 80 108 76 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 104 80 105 79 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ058-063-068-069-172.

Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053-055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071- 073>075-154-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120.

Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ129-219-220-229.