textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Chances for showers and storms will continue this afternoon into Saturday. After a relative lull Saturday night and Sunday, near daily chances are expected next week. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat.

- Temperatures warm back to near normal for much of the next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A mid-level low pressure/MCV evident on radar imagery southwest of FSM is what is left over from the rains last night. The system is now on the move toward the east. Scattered showers and storms can be expected through the afternoon within the broader trough aloft over far E OK into W AR. Focus then shifts out west. The HRRR has shown a consistent signal of storms coming out of the southern TX Panhandle/South Plains area this afternoon, growing upscale into an eastward moving MCS in the vicinity of the Red River tonight. This activity would not move into SE OK until after midnight, reducing the severe threat. Nonetheless, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall would accompany this system as it moves across SE OK late tonight into Saturday morning. Farther north, storms may also fire along a cold front over western KS/NW OK this afternoon, with some of this activity moving into NE OK tonight.

Skies may clear out enough in the wake of the MCV in the east tonight to allow for some fog development, especially in the valleys of NW/W-C AR and far E OK.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

An MCV left over from the MCS tonight is likely to fire off more scattered shower and storm activity over eastern portions of the forecast area on Saturday. Once that system clears Saturday evening, there should be a relative lull in convective activity Saturday night and Sunday. On Monday, an upper low is expected to lift north from TX, with afternoon shower and storm chances increasing first over southern and eastern areas that afternoon. Higher shower and storm coverage is expected areawide on Tuesday as the system moves overhead. By the middle of next week, a weakness is maintained in the mid-level height fields over the region south of an omega block in the higher latitudes, and that is expected to persist through the end of the week. Daily shower and storm chances are expected, peaking during the afternoon hours.

With weak flow aloft, severe potential will be pretty low. However, slow-moving storms could drop locally heavy rainfall and lead to isolated flash flooding.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A band of light moderate rain continues to fall and slide across far eastern and northwest AR. Mosaic radar shows isolated to scattered convection beginning to develop in E. OK, west of the band. MVFR, with pockets of IFR, cigs will gradually lift and break apart from west-to-east as the afternoon progresses, which should result in mostly VFR, with occasional MVFR, conditions by mid-late afternoon and into this evening. Low cigs are expected to return overnight tonight and through Saturday morning. Guidance shows some fog developing late tonight. Added some reduction in vis to the AR terminals overnight and early Saturday morning, but coverage and timing/duration are still not quite known at this time. Precipitation should end by sunset this evening, but another round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive from the west closer to daybreak Saturday. This round of showers and storms will gradually shift east through morning, losing its strength and intensity by mid- late morning as it moves across the CWA. The overall forecast confidence for this TAF package is low and amendments and changes to the forecast will likely be needed.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 62 78 62 82 / 30 60 20 10 FSM 63 82 64 84 / 10 60 20 20 MLC 63 81 63 84 / 60 60 20 20 BVO 58 78 57 82 / 30 60 30 10 FYV 58 80 60 81 / 10 60 20 30 BYV 58 80 60 81 / 10 70 30 20 MKO 61 79 61 82 / 20 50 20 10 MIO 59 78 60 81 / 20 70 30 10 F10 61 79 61 82 / 50 50 20 10 HHW 63 80 64 82 / 60 70 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.