textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Scattered storms continue through the night, gradually shifting to the south.

- Storm chances continue into Sunday and into early next week, and temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals through at the middle of next week.

- Hot and mostly dry conditions build back in by late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Scattered convection continues to develop within a deep moist axis situated from near Pawnee southeastward to the Fort Smith area currently. Expectation is that this axis/elevated frontal zone will slowly shift southward through the overnight hours, with higher storm chances also shifting south across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. The severe threat has waned with the loss of daytime heating as instability has decreased substantially over the area. Still, some occasional pulse storms could briefly become strong to severe with gusty downburst winds around 50 to 60 mph at times and marginally severe hail through the night. Best severe chances will generally be from near I-40 and points to the south where better instability resides. The main threat overnight will be locally heavy rainfall owing to anomalously high PWAT values and observed rainfall rates from earlier this evening in the 3 to 4 inch per hour range. Localized flash flooding could develop rapidly as storm motions continue to be slow to nearly stationary at times. Overall, activity should decrease some in coverage through the night, though more development could be possible near sunrise across portions of northeast Oklahoma again.

A lull in activity is expected from late morning through mid afternoon, with relatively low coverage of storms expected during this timeframe. More cloud cover along with northerly winds in the wake of the boundary will keep temperatures in check tomorrow for most locations... especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to near 90 across the north, while low to mid 90s are forecast across the south. The stalled or slowly moving frontal zone will likely be placed across southeast Oklahoma by tomorrow afternoon, with another round of scattered thunderstorms likely to develop along the boundary from mid to late afternoon. A damaging wind threat will be the primary concern once again with any stronger cells, along with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. This activity should slowly sag southward through late afternoon and push south of the Red River during the evening hours.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Upper ridging builds over the Northern and Central Plains through the middle part of next week, which will begin to limit the storm chances over much of the forecast area. Daily, mainly afternoon scattered thunderstorm chances tied to the peak heating will be possible across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas from the beginning through middle part of the week. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals with some drier low level air continuing to filter in thanks to a light easterly to northeasterly wind for several days. This will mean several days of no heat headlines through mid week. By late week, the ridge looks to broaden and expand across the central CONUS. The result will be warming temperatures back above normal and a mostly dry forecast heading into next weekend.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Lingering showers and isolated storms across the south will weaken but continue. Scattered clouds in the low to mid levels will persist through Sunday, especially in the south. A renewal of showers and storms is possible, especially near KMLC, this afternoon. Gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain my all occur. All areas should dry out with diminishing clouds after sunset. Winds will favor the northeast through the period and remain light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 90 72 91 72 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 92 74 93 73 / 30 10 10 10 MLC 90 73 91 71 / 50 20 20 10 BVO 89 68 90 68 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 89 68 89 67 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 88 67 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 89 71 90 71 / 30 0 10 0 MIO 90 68 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 F10 88 70 89 70 / 40 10 10 0 HHW 90 72 89 72 / 70 40 30 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.