textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1122 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

- Above average temperatures persist this afternoon. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible into the early evening across far E OK/ NW AR, but is unlikely overall.

- Strong southwest winds persist this afternoon, gusting 25-40 mph.

- Cooler and dry conditions expected this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tonight) Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to navigate east through the FA as the potent upper low swings through the region. Skies are clearing rapidly behind the precip as drier air works into the area, and would expect a period of sunshine for most locations across E OK and NW AR going into this afternoon. Strong SW winds will persist through this afternoon with gusts 25-40 mph. A cold front will then push into the region late this afternoon and evening bringing a period of gusty NW winds. Models have generally pulled back on the idea of much redevelopment ahead of the front across far E OK and NW AR, so PoPs have trended lower late afternoon/ early evening. If an isolated storm did develop and can overcome the drier air, then a conditional severe threat would remain in place. However, chances of this occurring have decreased from the previous forecast.

Gusty NW winds will accompany the front initially, but wane as we go into the overnight hours. Low temperatures generally bottom out in the 30s in NE OK and 40s across SE OK and W-Central AR.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Thursday) Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

The front begins to lift back northward during the day as the next storm system impinges on the region. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front tomorrow, especially along and north of I-44 with increased low level cloud cover. As the upper low moves through N OK and S KS Friday night, light showers will be possible generally north of I-40. Some snow may mix in near the KS border as temperatures fall to near freezing, but at this time no winter impacts are expected. A stronger front will push through the region Friday night, leading to much colder temperatures over the weekend. High pressure and dry NW flow aloft keeps the forecast dry through early next week, with temperatures gradually warming back above average by Monday and Tuesday. Models suggest another trough and associated cold front may approach the region by mid week, bringing temperatures back down to seasonal norms and perhaps additional precipitation chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Broken line of strong storms will impact the western AR terminals at and shortly after the 18z valid time with MVFR to IFR conditions and potentially strong and gusty winds in excess of 40 knots, particularly at KFYV. This activity will quickly move to the east with improving flight conditions and gusty SW winds through the afternoon. VFR prevailing conditions otherwise with sfc winds shifting northwest this evening with a cold front. Potential still exists for low ceilings to eventually return to northwest AR and part of northeast OK mainly after midnight tonight, but with continued low confidence in extent and duration. MVFR ceilings will be shown for this region after 06z tonight and continue through the remainder of the valid forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 38 54 34 51 / 0 0 20 0 FSM 43 64 40 54 / 10 0 20 0 MLC 39 61 36 53 / 0 10 10 0 BVO 34 52 29 51 / 0 0 20 0 FYV 38 60 34 50 / 10 0 20 0 BYV 41 57 36 48 / 10 0 30 0 MKO 39 58 36 50 / 0 0 20 0 MIO 39 53 34 49 / 0 0 20 0 F10 38 57 35 51 / 0 0 20 0 HHW 44 65 40 52 / 0 10 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.