textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1258 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening, especially across far E OK and NW AR. Some storms may become strong to severe and produce large hail and damaging winds.

- Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues through Friday.

- Additional thunderstorm chances, some potentially severe, are expected Friday into early Saturday with a cold front. Cooler and drier weather is anticipated into Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Midday Thursday a trailing mid/upper level disturbance...to the parent trof moving into the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley...was making its way eastward through Kansas and Oklahoma. Out ahead of the trailing trof axis, both a moderate surface and elevated instability axis remained common across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. At the same time, 35-50KT of deep layer shear and steep mid level lapse rates over the CWA were ahead of the trof axis. The combination of these ingredients interacting with the mid level assent provided by the disturbance could allow for the development of isolated to widely scattered convection through the afternoon to mid evening hours. The greater potential for this is across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas where the higher shear/lapse rates are anticipated. However, an isolated storm potential will remain across much of the CWA this afternoon, and then taper off from west to east this evening. Large hail is the primary severe threat with any storm development, while locally damaging winds are a secondary threat. A non-zero tornado threat also exists into early evening for far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, though low level shear values are marginal.

Storm development should decrease after sunset and exit mid evening once the backside of the disturbance moves off to the east. In the wake of the departing system, southerly low level flow is forecast to begin increasing ahead of a more defined shortwave moving eastward through the Rocky Mountains. Within this increase flow, low level moisture begins to increase again which should aid in low temperatures remaining in the mid/upper 60s for much of the CWA tonight.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Southerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph are anticipated Friday ahead of the approaching shortwave and also a cold front...aka the boundary that has been holding out to the west this week. Again, with the instability axis and the moisture plume holding over the region, storm chances increase again Friday afternoon across northeast/east central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. An isolated storm potential could develop as early as the morning hours with 30-40KT low level jet moving over the region ahead of the shortwave. However, the greater thunderstorm potentials develop mid to late afternoon, and then become more likely Friday evening with the cold front moving into the CWA. Latest model solutions continue to indicate that the greater potential for storm initiation out ahead of the front could be north of the CWA Friday afternoon. If any development can take place across the CWA ahead of the front, a more discrete storm mode is forecast with all modes of severe weather possible. For now will continue with chance PoPs in northeast Oklahoma for the afternoon hours.

The cold front nears the CWA late afternoon and enters northeast Oklahoma early evening Friday. Through the evening and overnight hours the cold front moves southeast through the CWA, and should be exiting early morning Saturday. At this time, along/near the frontal boundary are the greatest storm chances and severe probabilities through the late evening hours over northeast/east central Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Severe threats during the evening hours transition to a mainly damaging wind threat with the convection along the front, while large hail looks to be a secondary threat. Late Friday night, severe potentials should begin to weaken from northwest to southeast and taper off with the exiting front early Saturday morning.

A cooler and drier airmass streams into the region during the day Saturday with high temperatures only in the 60s forecast. The upper level trof axis exits the region Saturday night with surface high pressure moving into the region, which will allow for clearing cloud cover and light winds. In response, low temperatures Sunday morning could fall into the upper 30s and 40s for much of the CWA.

A ridge of high pressure sets up over the southern Plains late weekend into the first half of next week. Model solutions continue to hint at a weak disturbance over topping the ridge Tuesday/Wednesday of next week which could bring low chances of rain and or isolated thunder to the CWA. Once this disturbance moves out of the region, increased southerly low level flow, moisture and instability all are progged to return ahead of another shortwave wave at the end of the forecast period. Thus, storm chances once again look to return to the CWA late next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

MVFR cigs are likely to improve to VFR early this afternoon, though FEW to SCT low clouds may persist, especially in NW AR. There is a low chance for thunderstorms areawide this afternoon and early evening, though the highest potential occurs in NW AR. The current expectation is for convection to remain isolated and have maintained PROB30 groups as a result. VFR conditions continue overnight before low clouds attempt to redevelop during the early morning hours with additional MVFR cigs possible, especially across E OK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 68 84 47 63 / 10 50 90 10 FSM 66 85 55 68 / 20 20 80 30 MLC 68 84 51 65 / 10 20 90 20 BVO 65 84 43 63 / 0 70 90 10 FYV 66 84 48 64 / 20 30 90 20 BYV 65 83 48 61 / 20 30 80 20 MKO 66 83 48 63 / 10 30 90 10 MIO 66 81 45 60 / 10 60 90 10 F10 68 83 48 63 / 10 40 90 10 HHW 66 83 56 66 / 10 10 80 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.