textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 514 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Patchy fog possible again tonight into Monday morning across NE OK and NW AR. Patchy frost also cannot be ruled out in the colder valleys of NW AR and far NE OK.

- Warming trend through Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Overall, mostly dry conditions are likely.

- Cooler weather likely by late week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Surface high pressure remains common across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday night into Monday morning with light winds and mostly clear/passing high clouds. In response, low temperatures in the 40s are expected for much of the CWA. Mid/upper 30s are forecast within the normal cold locations, which could create areas of patchy frost early Monday morning. In addition to the frost potential, overnight conditions will increase the potential for fog development for parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas again, which could impact the early morning commute. Any reduced visibility should begin to improve mid morning Monday.

An area of low pressure lifts out of northern Mexico into the big bend area of Texas late Sunday night and Monday. In response, scattered high clouds are forecast to stream across the southern half of the CWA, while mostly clear skies remain north of Interstate 40. Afternoon temperatures should then warm into the 70s for most locations.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

A west-east oriented mid/upper ridge of high pressure into the central Plains will help keep the area of low pressure in Texas mostly south of the Red River as it moves eastward through Tuesday. During the day Tuesday looks to be the closest it reaches to southeast Oklahoma before getting a push southeast from a more defined low pressure system approaching the Plains. An increase in low level Theta-e moisture and marginal warm advection into southeast Oklahoma could create a few sprinkles Tuesday afternoon before the low begins to depart the region. For now will continue to keep PoPs below mentionable criteria for far southeast Oklahoma. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with the return of southerly winds.

The stronger low pressure system drops southeast into the Plains Tuesday night and moves across the CWA Wednesday. An associated cold front also makes its way into northeast Oklahoma early Wednesday morning and exits during the afternoon hours. Majority of the moisture is forecast to remain south and east of the CWA Wednesday, with any storm development along the front initiating east of the CWA. Behind the frontal passage, breezy north/northwesterly winds transport drier air and a cooler airmass into the region for the second half of the week. A secondary area of low pressure is progged to quickly drop through the Plains and the eastern half of the CWA within the upper level northerly flow Thursday afternoon/evening. The combination of these features will provide high temperatures back in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s Thursday into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Patchy fog will continue until around mid morning, with KFSM likely to see the greatest impacts from the fog. Once the fog burns off, VFR conditions are then expected for the rest of the forecast period, with some lower clouds around 4K feet likely at KMLC and KFSM by later tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 48 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 72 45 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 72 48 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 74 43 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 71 40 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 71 47 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 72 47 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 72 46 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 F10 72 49 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 73 51 75 55 / 0 0 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.