textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Strong and dry cold front this afternoon will drop temperatures slightly below average through the rest of the week.

- Wetter weather pattern arrives Friday night and into the upcoming weekend, before becoming much colder early next week.

- At least low potential for impactful winter weather early next week. Please monitor forecast updates as more details become available.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1129 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A cold front will continue to push south and east through the area this afternoon and evening, resulting in decreasing temperatures and drier conditions. Post-frontal high pressure fills in tonight with temperatures falling into the 30s areawide and below freezing across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Light to breezy north- northwest winds persist through the night, allowing wind chills to creep into the mid-lower 20s in the coldest areas by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1129 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Sfc high pressure persists over the next few days resulting in primarily dry and seasonably cold conditions through Thanksgiving. A disturbance passes just to our north Wednesday night and Thursday morning, perhaps squeezing out a couple light showers or flurries for far NE OK/ NW AR (<10% Chance). However, no impacts are expected from this feature, and the more likely scenario is just an increase in cloud cover. By early Friday, high pressure begins to move off to the east with increasing southerly flow returning to the Southern Plains. Heights begin to fall by late in the day as a lead wave moves east out of the four corners region. A more potent upper trough then swings down from the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. These systems will bring increasing rain/ thunder potential back to the forecast Friday night through Saturday, especially across SE OK and NW AR. While heavy rain may again become a concern, the moisture return period is expected to remain fairly brief at this time, which should help limit overall amounts.

Late Saturday, another cold front is shoved through the CWA and clear to the Gulf coast. This will likely diminish the precipitation potential and pull much colder air into E OK and NW AR. As temperatures rapidly fall to near or below freezing behind the front, there is at least some potential for light snow/ wintry mix to occur before precipitation ends. As it appears now, any period of wintry precip should remain brief and light, and no impacts are expected at this time.

There is at least low potential for more meaningful winter weather impacts early next week as another upper low ejects into the region (5-10% chance per Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index). However, confidence remains low at this range and no one particular model solution is favored at this time, as revealed in ensemble cluster analysis. This depicts a wide range of potential solutions... all roughly weighted similarly at day 7/8. So for now, just keep this potential in mind and consider your typical winter weather precautions as we go into early December. Please monitor for forecast updates as specific trends/ details become available.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A brief MVFR ceilings remains possible across northwest AR for the next hour or so, otherwise VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. Northwest winds will remain gusty at times early tonight with an overall down trend in speeds, especially by mid afternoon Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 64 34 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 65 37 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 66 36 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 63 30 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 62 32 49 30 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 61 33 48 31 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 63 35 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 60 32 48 31 / 0 0 0 10 F10 64 35 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 63 38 55 33 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.