textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

-Low thunderstorm chances linger over the area through the weekend, with generally low impact expected

-A more active weather pattern is expected as we head into next week. Severe weather and heavy rainfall potential will be on the rise.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

A zone of mid level WAA has lead to a few light showers through the morning hours across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Much of this precip hasn't reached the ground owing to dry air near the surface. Some sprinkles or light showers will continue to be possible into the early afternoon, before ascent shifts east of the forecast area. Otherwise, a warm and breezy day is in store as the pressure gradient tightens between surface ridging over the Mississippi Valley and a deepening surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Southerly gusts in excess of 30mph will be likely through the afternoon, especially across northeast Oklahoma.

Tonight is expected to be quiet overall. Increasing moisture and continued breezy conditions will lead to a much warmer night than previous nights across the region. Lows will hold in the mid 60s to lower 70s for most locations. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across western Oklahoma later this afternoon as a mid level disturbance interacts with a N/S oriented dryline. This activity will move eastward through the evening, but is expected to weaken before reaching eastern Oklahoma, but trends will bear watching through the afternoon and evening for any impacts to eastern Oklahoma.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The aforementioned disturbance, possible enhanced somewhat from the Thursday evening convection, is progged to move over eastern Oklahoma by Friday morning. CAMs have been consistent in generating scattered thunderstorms over the area. Forecast soundings show these storms to be high based, with little in the way of elevated instability...thus severe weather seems unlikely and much like Thursday, precipitation may struggle to reach the surface. However, have increased PoPs to mentionable levels generally north of I-40. Activity should weaken into the afternoon in the wake of the exiting wave. Scattered storms will again be possible out west Friday afternoon, and could graze portions of northeast Oklahoma Friday evening, but chances remain low at this point. Another weak wave in the strengthening westerly to southwesterly flow aloft looks to move across northern Oklahoma Friday night into Saturday morning. This will serve as another period of isolated to widely scattered convective development. Again, severe weather is unlikely, but a few heavier storms will be possible as deep layer moisture continues to increase over the region.

Most of the upper level energy shifts northward by Saturday into Sunday, with less coverage of storms along the dryline expected, and thus less chances for storms to make it into eastern Oklahoma. Into early next week, a more unsettled pattern looks to take shape as a deep trough moves into the western CONUS, while a surface frontal boundary moves southeastward toward the local region. Uncertainties remain in the evolution of thunderstorm chances over the area through the remained of the forecast period. Most notably will be the strength and placement of the upper level ridge to the south and where the surface boundary ends up through the week. Model consensus has trended slower with the frontal boundary's southward push as the western CONUS trough not making much eastward progress through the period. Where the frontal boundary ends up, this will serve as the focus for widespread thunderstorm development as warm, moist flow from the Gulf streams northward ahead of the system. Additionally, a strengthening upper ridge over much of the Gulf will help enhance upper level southwesterly flow across eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. All of this adds up to a potential heavy rainfall event in the vicinity of the semi-stationary boundary with some ensemble guidance showing some high end amounts upwards of 5 to 6 inches in spots next week. Severe potential will also increase owing to better shear and thermodynamics in place over the region. Trends in the placement of these features will continue to be monitored as the forecast is refined in the coming days.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period. South winds will gust over 20 knots at times today and tonight. A strong low level jet will develop this evening and overnight, resulting in LLWS at all sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 72 88 72 87 / 10 20 20 10 FSM 64 88 70 89 / 0 20 20 10 MLC 72 87 72 88 / 10 20 20 10 BVO 69 89 69 88 / 10 10 20 10 FYV 66 85 71 86 / 0 20 20 20 BYV 63 85 71 86 / 0 20 20 20 MKO 68 87 71 86 / 10 20 20 10 MIO 68 87 70 86 / 10 10 20 20 F10 71 87 71 87 / 10 20 20 10 HHW 68 88 70 86 / 0 10 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.