textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

- Abnormally cool weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week.

- Rain and thunder chances will continue daily through the forecast period, with periods of heavy rain.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Beneficial rain has fallen across eastern OK and northwest AR over the last 24 hours or so. Zones receiving the most rainfall have been: far northeast OK into far northwest AR and southeast OK, especially far southeast OK, where amounts have averaged between two to three inches. Most impressive amounts fell in parts of northeast Ottawa County, near the tri-state marker, where radar estimates around four inches or greater fell.

A few elevated showers and sprinkles have developed along the I-44 corridor, near an elevated frontal boundary. Last few runs of the HRRR have been on the aggressive side of intensifying these showers/storms and expanding them into far eastern OK and northwest AR after midnight. Brief pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible if this scenario occurs as they progress eastward through the overnight period tonight. Additional rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch will be possible, especially across far northwest AR.

Precipitation chances will begin to trend lower by or just after daybreak Wednesday and is forecast to remain mostly dry through the remainder of the day. A few isolated/spotty showers and storms are possible in the afternoon, mostly affecting parts of southeast OK and northwest AR, but no hazardous impacts are expected. Cloud cover will remain fairly thick through Wednesday morning, but some breaks and thinning of clouds may occur during the afternoon, especially portions of southeast OK. Cloud cover will keep temperatures generally below average through the daytime, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-upper 60s to lower 70s north of I-40 and mid-upper 70s to near 80 degrees south of I-40. If enough sunlight is able to break through the clouds, temps may warm up closer to average.

Next best chance of widespread rain, with isolated thunderstorms, will arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another mid-level shortwave trough approaches the area from the southwest. Very limited instability and weak flow aloft will suppress any chance of severe storms, but moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs increase between 1.5-1.75 inches across the area by sunrise Thursday morning.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Scattered to numerous showers, with embedded scattered thunderstorms, will likely be ongoing Thursday morning as a mid- level shortwave trough, downstream from its parent trough axis, pivots northeastward across the forecast area. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement an uptick in precipitation intensity will occur late in the morning through the afternoon. Despite an increase in moisture and instability by Thursday afternoon, wind shear is still expected to be weak and should keep any severe potential very low to none. Will continue to monitor trends in data. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main concern as it may lead to nuisance flooding and potentially flash flooding through the daytime Thursday and into Thursday night.

Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by Friday, though models and ensembles continue to support the idea of multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain each day through the upcoming weekend. Signals in model data suggest the brunt of the heaviest rainfall will occur mainly late evening through the overnight period each night Friday night through Sunday night. Once again, severe potential is expected to be very limited to none as flow aloft remains too weak to support organized severe storms through the upcoming weekend. However, efficient elevated instability and abnormally high PWATs through the period will maintain the risk of heavy rainfall and potential flooding, including river flooding, each day/night.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Challenging aviation forecast for the next 24 hours with ongoing IFR/MVFR conditions in both visibilities and ceilings, as well as potential for shower/thunderstorm impacts at all sites. In general, will keep a multi-hour period of reduced ceilings everywhere, with FSM /currently the lone holdout/ likely to develop a ceiling near the beginning of the period given observations just north and west. CAMs continue to depict an expanding region of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the next couple of hours, with the most substantial impacts at the W AR sites. Radar some showing some development just SW of FSM at the moment, as well as back to the west in central OK. Will generally keep PROB30s given uncertainty in coverage, with thunder mention limited to MLC/FSM. During the last half of the period some improvement in ceilings is expected, particularly at MLC/FSM, which has a medium to high chance of a period of VFR conditions. Any additional shower/thunderstorm impacts should hold off until the end of this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 56 68 60 72 / 50 20 40 90 FSM 65 80 65 77 / 50 20 30 60 MLC 60 76 64 75 / 50 20 30 90 BVO 51 66 54 70 / 50 10 50 80 FYV 59 73 61 75 / 60 30 20 70 BYV 59 69 59 73 / 60 20 20 50 MKO 58 72 62 73 / 50 20 30 90 MIO 55 65 58 72 / 50 10 40 80 F10 57 71 61 73 / 40 20 40 90 HHW 64 80 65 74 / 60 30 40 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.