textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

- Temperatures quickly warm to above normal temperatures by mid week.

- Low to medium rain chances (20-40%) east on Wednesday night and Thursday morning as a front passes, otherwise dry weather prevails.

- Limited to locally elevated fire weather potential this week and into this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

GOES-19 visible satellite imagery shows a southwest-to-northeast oriented deck of stratus has spread from central OK into portions of northeast OK late this morning. The low cloud cover is expected to stick around through this afternoon, drifting south and east with time. Went ahead and lowered forecast highs today, especially for portions of northeast OK. Otherwise, the forecast for the rest of the day remains on track.

For tonight, light southerly winds and continued cloud cover will help tonight be noticeably milder than previous nights, with low- impact weather. Expect overnight lows near or just below seasonal average, generally in the low-mid 30s, underneath partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Mild and mostly dry weather will continue through the middle part of the workweek. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will drift across the Southern Rockies and the Red River Valley through the daytime Tuesday. Though the trough will pass over without much fanfare, it will tap into slightly better moisture once the trough axis moves over eastern OK and western AR. A few light rain showers will be possible (10-20% chance), specifically across far southeast OK and western AR through about sunrise Wednesday. Most other locations remain dry. Total rainfall amounts, if any, should be anywhere from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday will soar above normal, with highs generally in the mid-upper 50s on Tuesday and upper 50s/lower 60s on Wednesday.

A more potent upper-level trough/cut-off low will slide off the Northern Rockies and over the Northern Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A strong surface low will move east towards the Great Lakes and cold front will sweep south across the Central Plains early Thursday morning. Guidance has been persistent is showing warm sector showers developing Wednesday evening/night across southeast/east OK and western AR as isentropic lift increases ahead of the approaching cold front and upper-level trough axis. The cold front pushes through the region through the morning hours Thursday. Consensus in model data show additional rain showers developing right along the frontal boundary in far eastern OK and western AR. As such, bumped up PoPs slightly (20-40%) from the current NBM solution for areas south and east of Highway 69 in OK, including western AR. Once again, rainfall amounts look to be light, non-impactful, and on the order of a few hundredths of an inch to a couple of tenths of an inch. The frontal passage will also bring gusty northerly winds with it. Anticipate sustained northerly speeds between 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph at times, through the afternoon Thursday.

Despite the cold front on Thursday, temperatures will remain near or just slightly above normal Thursday night and during the daytime Friday, with southerly winds returning by Friday morning. The surface pressure gradient will tighten up Friday and Saturday and breezy southerly winds will take place, even during the evening and overnight hours Friday night. Persistent breezy winds Thursday through Saturday will likely increase fire weather concerns, especially during the afternoon hours each day when RH values will be lowest (20-30% both Thursday and Friday afternoons). Limited to locally elevated fire weather danger concerns will be possible across much of the area. The forecast for Saturday remains somewhat complex. Strong warm air advection will occur during the morning and afternoon, ahead of the next approaching cold front, where temperatures will warm into the mid- upper 60s to lower 70s. However models show slight timing differences with the front. For now will run with the operational NBM solution. Unseasonably warm and dry weather is expected to continue late in the weekend and into early next week as well.

Mejia

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

MVFR ceilings are expected to impact all of the terminals through the period, with the duration of such low confidence at this time. Guidance is struggling with the extent of the clouds at present, with satellite also showing some thinning of them on the fringes of the deck. These TAFs will linger these ceilings longer than the previous set, using model relative humidity forecasts as a proxy. A reduced ceiling at low end VFR heights may exist for a few hours beyond the end of the MVFR conditions mainly at MLC and the W AR sites, with a lower /and hence, not explicitly mentioned/ potential for such at the NE OK sites. Gusts around 20 kts will remain likely at the NE OK terminals this afternoon, dropping off by early evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 33 57 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 30 57 41 62 / 0 10 10 0 MLC 35 58 42 62 / 0 10 10 0 BVO 27 56 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 30 55 39 60 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 31 56 40 61 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 33 57 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 31 53 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 F10 34 58 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 33 56 43 60 / 0 10 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.