textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 - Southerly winds return with a warming trend through the week.

- Multiple opportunities for showers and storms Friday into early next week. Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat exist.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Wave over the Plains along with an area of low pressure over the Desert Southwest Monday night will both aid in streaming high clouds across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday into Wednesday. The southern area of low pressure is expected to move eastward and broaden out over Texas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Any associated precip should remain south of the CWA where the deeper moisture plume is expected to reside.

Surface high pressure begins to shift eastward Tuesday, with the mid level ridge exiting the Southern Plains Tuesday night. In response, southerly low level flow returns to the CWA Tuesday/Tuesday night, which will help bring a slow warming trend with high temperatures above normal this week. High temperatures in the 70s Tuesday/Wednesday, and lows Tuesday night in the 40s/50s are forecast.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Once the southern wave departs the region Wednesday evening, an increase in southerly low level flow will help increase moisture advection into the CWA for Thursday through the weekend. At the same time, a shortwave trof is progged to move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region and push a frontal boundary southward through the central Plains toward the CWA. Breezy/gusty southerly winds and warmer conditions south of this boundary will allow high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s/80s late week.

The frontal boundary is progged to be stretched across Kansas Friday while another area of low pressure moves onto the southern West Coast Saturday. A piece of vorticity breaks off and lifts into the region Saturday ahead of the main wave forecast to reach the Plains Sunday/Monday. The combination of these features interacting with moisture advection into the region will develop shower and thunderstorm chances returning Friday and remaining over the CWA through Monday before the low pressure exits the region. Light precip could start as early as Thursday/Thursday night with some model/ensemble solutions, though the greater potential remains Friday through Monday. The higher potential for precip Friday is expected to be over the northern half of the CWA, closer to the boundary and the ejecting vorticity lobe into the region. Precipitation chances are currently higher over the western half of the CWA Saturday and then expands over the CWA Sunday into Monday.

Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat exist Friday through Monday with the return of both surface/elevated instability and precipitable water values up near the 90-99th percent-tile. Details with QPF and severe timing/locations remain uncertain currently, though confidence in the signal for an unsettled weather pattern during the second half of the forecast period is increasing. Stay tuned as details are refined through the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 76 50 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 74 52 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 73 45 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 72 50 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 71 49 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 74 50 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 73 50 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 F10 74 49 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 73 50 75 54 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.