textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1208 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 - Fire weather concerns will be on the increase through Thursday, due to the warm and windy conditions. The potential will be highest on Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances return by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1208 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Fire weather concerns through this afternoon continue to highlight the forecast for today, largely driven by strong and gusty southerly winds. A few wind gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range have been noted already this morning on both the Mesonet and synoptic sites in northeast Oklahoma. This should continue to be the norm through the afternoon in this same area, with the dense high cloudiness limiting mixing to some extent. THe high clouds are also limiting the warmup, and the high temperatures for today have been adjusted downward some from the NBM offering, more toward the short-term blend. With dew points west of Highway 75 in the upper 40s to near 50 at max heating, minimum relative humidities will be on the higher side, from 35 to 45 percent. This serves as a limit on the overall fire weather concerns today.

To the south, low clouds have expanded across southeast Oklahoma this morning, with reduced visibilities primarily remaining just to the east of the area. The expectation is for any low cloud potential to remain south of I-40 through the day.

Moving into tonight, seasonably warm overnight temperatures can be expected, with a noticeable reduction in the low level dew points in northeast Oklahoma by daybreak, behind a dryline passage. Dew points tonight have been reduced using data from the HREF, to set the stage for the increased fire weather concerns the next couple of days.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1208 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Fire weather concerns increase further Wednesday due to the reduced low level moisture behind the aforementioned dryline. A downslope component to the winds and lower cloud cover tomorrow will also lead to well above normal temperatures, in the mid and upper 70s areawide. Afternoon relative humidities should be in the 15 to 25 percent range, except for a portion of southeast Oklahoma. Winds will increase from the south-southwest mid to late afternoon, which will provide a brief window for near critical fire weather conditions in parts of the area. A Fire Danger Statement will be needed to cover this potential.

Thursday continues to feature the day with the worst combination of very low relative humdities and strong, gusty winds following another pre-frontal trough/dryline passage. Afternoon relative humidities will drop into the 15 to 20 percent range across almost the entire area, and with westerly winds in the 15 to 25 mph range and gusting to 35 mph, the potential for widespread near critical to locally critical grassland fire spread rates exists. In addition, a wind shift from westerly to northwesterly and finally, to northerly behind a cold frontal passage could be problematic for any fire fighting efforts extending into the evening hours. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for northeast Oklahoma and a portion of east central Oklahoma, as well as far northwest Arkansas for Thursday afternoon. This may need to be expanded southward, depending on how fuels dry out from the weekend rains into southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

Behind the Thursday/Thursday night cold front, temperatures will drop back to near to below normal levels from Friday, through the weekend and into early next week, as northwesterly flow aloft develops and persists. A low chance of precipitation will exist early in the weekend, as a fast moving system drops southward across the region. Temperatures may be cool enough to support a rain/snow mix across northern parts of the area but impacts are unlikely. Warmer conditions should be expected by Tuesday, as southerly winds develop and strengthen in advance of low pressure in the Northern/Central Plains.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period under extensive high clouds. The only exception to this is KMLC, where MVFR cigs have been slow to erode this morning. Still expect these low clouds to dissipate early this afternoon, but there is a low chance they persist for several more hours. Otherwise, strong south winds develop for this afternoon and early evening, with gusts 20-30 kts. Sfc winds decrease overnight, though 40-50 kt LLWS is likely areawide, initially out of the southwest, becoming westerly by Wednesday morning. LLJ weakens by mid morning with light westerly sfc winds and mostly clear skies.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 50 76 53 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 72 55 77 54 / 0 10 0 0 MLC 70 53 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 74 43 76 45 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 69 50 76 53 / 0 10 0 0 BYV 68 54 75 55 / 0 10 0 0 MKO 70 51 76 55 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 71 48 74 53 / 0 10 0 0 F10 71 50 77 55 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 69 57 75 58 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OKZ054>071.

AR...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.