textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 637 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- A marginal severe risk exists this afternoon across SE OK and W-Central AR, mainly for brief and weak landspouts or spotty damaging wind through the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well.

- Daily rain and storm chances continue through the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary concern, which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly below average over the next several days.

UPDATE

Issued at 413 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A well-defined area of low pressure is clearly evident on satellite imagery approaching the Red River and far SE OK. To the east and north of this circulation, bands of showers and storms in a very tropical-like environment exist, and some of these have exhibited some weak rotation from time to time. The latest SPC mesoanalysis of surface vorticity and low level CAPE (a good proxy for landspout environments) suggests it is not ideal, but there is some overlap in the parameter space to yield at least a limited threat through the afternoon. The low level CAPE should wane after sunset, ending the threat. PoPs and thunder probs were also updated with the latest data.

Lacy

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1047 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A slow moving trough axis will gradually lift into the area today. As it does so, shower and thunderstorm activity will increase from south to north. Decent low to mid level convergence beneath subtle upper level diffluence will act on a moist and somewhat unstable atmosphere. As a result widespread showers and thunderstorms will blossom into the afternoon and evening hours. Although severe weather is not expected, areas of heavy rainfall are likely, particularly with thunderstorms. Most areas will see between 0.25 to 1 inch of rain today through tonight, but locally higher totals are expected. Precipitation will continue through the overnight hours, but most guidance shows it becoming increasingly confined towards central OK with time. Highs today will rise to the upper 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows mostly in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1047 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

During the day Thursday, the upper level circulation will be sitting nearly overhead with little movement. This will result in scattered showers and storms throughout the day across the forecast area. It's commonly the case that there is a less storm activity right under the upper low, with better forcing around its periphery, as such the best precipitation chances would be expected to be across far eastern OK and northwest AR. Either way, it will be another temperate day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows again in the mid to upper 60s. Friday will feature more of the same, except that the circulation will be weakening as it slowly churns eastward. In the end, it will mean another day with similar temps and precipitation patterns, except that precipitation will be winding down from west to east as shortwave ridging pokes in from the west.

On Saturday another upper level trough will clip the area to the northwest. It will move just close enough to slightly increase the upper level flow/lift with some additional storm activity expected in the region. Models then develop ridging just to the west of the area Sunday into Monday with modest northwesterly flow setting in. Guidance is mixed on storm development, but there is at least the chance of a few clusters of storms during this period. Ensemble guidance then suggests upper level ridging will become too strong for additional storm activity by the middle of next week, with temperatures warming above normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A pretty unsettled TAF period is expected across the region into this evening. VFR conditions will prevail initially outside of the heavier showers and storms. Across NE OK, expect steady showers and some storms through 06Z. Across SE OK, steady showers and some storms should come to an end within a few hours. Spotty showers are possible through the night however as an area of low pressure lifts north into the area. Across NW AR, a band of showers and storms should lift north of the sites by 04Z or 05Z, and then there may be a break during much of the overnight into Thursday morning with just a few spotty showers before more activity develops there during the afternoon. Expect low clouds toward morning with cigs dropping to MVFR or IFR before improving conditions by the midday and afternoon hours Thursday back to VFR, outside of showers and storms.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 65 79 65 82 / 90 70 40 30 FSM 67 82 66 84 / 90 50 30 50 MLC 66 82 66 85 / 70 40 30 40 BVO 64 78 62 82 / 80 80 40 20 FYV 65 78 64 80 / 80 70 50 70 BYV 64 76 63 78 / 70 70 50 80 MKO 65 79 65 82 / 90 50 40 50 MIO 66 78 64 80 / 70 80 60 60 F10 64 80 64 83 / 80 50 40 40 HHW 66 83 66 85 / 50 20 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.