textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1136 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Hot and humid weather continues Monday, with afternoon heat index values near or above 100 degrees in some places yet again.

- Shower and storm chances increase some late Monday into Tuesday, with temperatures dialing back several degrees.

- Cooler and less humid weather is expected Wednesday following the passage of a weak cold front.

- Unsettled weather returns late week into next weekend with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Moisture pooling across far northeast into north-central OK pushed afternoon heat indices to just under advisory criteria, though Tulsa Riverside Airport did get to 106 heat index, making criteria. A surface trough from north-central down to southwest OK set off some brief attempts at storms, however nothing could get going and the forecast area stayed dry. Several earlier HRRR runs have suggested that a cluster of storms developing over eastern KS could push outflow into NE OK late tonight or early Monday morning and generate showers and storms. Given uncertainty, will include slight chances up against the KS and MO borders.

Will have to watch forecast temps and humidity levels on Monday for the chance an advisory may be needed for parts of the area. The current forecast has values in the triple digits, but not quite to advisory levels and will thus hold off on heat headlines at this time. There are now hints at late day showers and storms along an advancing outflow/front back-dooring from the northeast. With upper heights still slowly rising and the ridge center sitting over the Red River, the environment aloft will not be overly favorable for sustained convection, unless a storm cluster can ride an outflow. Inserted a band of slight chance to chance PoPs starting late afternoon and dropping south into the evening.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

CAMs are now pretty aggressive at bringing convection off the higher terrain and into the central Plains Monday night into Tuesday morning, with one or more clusters/complexes riding outflow to the east and southeast into the forecast area and then more south across the forecast area during the first part of the day Tuesday. The initial activity that pushes into NE OK could have some damaging wind potential, with lessening severe potential afterward. Depending on how this plays out, some storm chance could linger in the south along an outflow boundary Tuesday afternoon. The negative factor for storm coverage will be the ridging that still exists aloft. This makes the temperature forecast for Tuesday more uncertain, but certainly should be cooler than Monday. Temperatures and humidity will dial back by Wednesday as an expansive surface high centered over the Great Lakes back-doors some cooler and drier air into the forecast area from the east and northeast. The best rain/storm chances should stay west of the forecast area Wednesday. The ridge aloft shifts east by Thursday, with SW flow returning to the area. The expansive eastern CONUS surface ridge shifts south and east, and better moisture will begin to return. Rain/storm chances will return especially in the west by Thursday afternoon and will continue to ramp up into next weekend over the entire area with SW flow aloft increasing ahead of a weak southern stream trough over the Southwest.

Lacy

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A mix of mid and high clouds are anticipated for the CWA through the TAF period. An outflow boundary moving into the region will allow for a slight chance of a shower/storm this morning, while additional slight chances of thunderstorms exist this afternoon/evening across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will continue to keep a mention out of the TAFs due to uncertainty of coverage and impact to any one terminal. Overnight tonight, another chance of thunderstorms develop with a potential MCS dropping southeast out of Kansas. Will add Prob30 groups to northeast Oklahoma terminals for after 06z Tuesday. Within any convection, a period of MVFR conditions and gusty winds are capable. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 94 71 88 67 / 20 30 30 0 FSM 95 72 89 65 / 10 20 30 0 MLC 95 72 91 68 / 10 10 20 0 BVO 93 69 87 65 / 10 30 20 0 FYV 91 70 86 61 / 20 20 20 0 BYV 89 67 81 57 / 30 10 10 0 MKO 93 71 89 66 / 10 20 30 0 MIO 91 69 85 63 / 20 10 10 0 F10 95 70 89 66 / 10 20 20 0 HHW 93 72 92 68 / 0 20 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.