textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 840 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Storm chances along with some threat for severe storms will persist through Saturday.

- Rain chances decrease and temperatures warm Sunday into the first part of next week. Afternoon heat index values may reach triple digits in a few spots.

- Unsettled weather returns later next week with daily shower and storm chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 840 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Showers and thunderstorms were occurring this morning across north-central Oklahoma associated with a subtle shortwave/low- level WAA influencing the region. This activity has been on a downward trend as it has moved into Osage county, with only a few sparse lightning strikes as of writing. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible near the OK-KS border through the remainder of the morning (10-30 percent chance), but most CAMs are in agreement that precip will continue to dwindle with mostly dry conditions across NE OK. By mid to late afternoon, low level ascent will increase across extreme NE OK and NW AR, with increasing shower and storm chances by 21z. The environment will remain supportive of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards. Some adjustments to PoPs were made for the morning update, but otherwise the current forecast has a good handle on the situation. Aside from precip chances, it will be quite hot today as high temperatures approach 90 degrees and heat indices soar into the upper 90s/near 100. As this is the first instance of summer heat of the year, please be sure to take breaks when outdoors today and drink plenty of water.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The upper flow over the region has flipped back to the more traditional W to SW flow and increased some, as an upper trough ejects northeast toward the central Rockies and a subtropical jet ahead of it extends into the south-central CONUS. It was an active day over north-central OK, with numerous storms developing off the dryline and producing big wind gusts and some hail. This activity has largely stayed out of NE OK thus far, though there is still some chance lingering waa activity slides across far NE OK close to the KS border through the night. There has been inconsistent signals presented in CAM data going into tomorrow morning. Some runs have suggested MCS development north of the KS border with activity eventually bending southeast to clip parts of the forecast area and leaving an outflow boundary. Later runs have backed off from this scenario. PoPs in the near term will use the raw 1 hr NBM PoP instead of PPI, backing away from likely PoPs in the northeast. Focus will then shift back to the dryline out west. Marginal westerly deep-layer shear in combination with late May instability will support some risk for severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The upper trough is expected to lift northeast across the central and northern Plains on Sunday. Rising mid-level heights across the forecast area will reduce the chances of any storms developing to our west and affecting our region. Afternoon highs will climb into the low 90s, and combined with the high humidity in place will yield heat indices near the triple digit mark in some spots. Upper heights continue to rise into Monday as the central CONUS ridge amplifies/broadens and another afternoon with highs in the low 90s and heat indices near the triple digits is expected. After another hot and humid day Tuesday with only low rain chances, temperatures and humidity will dial back a bit by Wednesday and Thursday as an expansive surface high centered over the Great Lakes back-doors some cooler and drier air into the forecast area from the east and northeast. The best rain/storm chances should stay west of the forecast area in this scenario. The central CONUS ridge breaks down during the latter part of the week, and rain/storm chances will ramp up by next Friday.

Lacy

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are anticipated over the CWA today before becoming mainly high clouds overnight tonight. There remains a short window of IFR/MVFR conditions within northwest Arkansas early this morning, though with winds already higher than this time yesterday this window looks to be limited. Storm chances also remain through the TAF period over much of the CWA. Will continue with Prob30 groups for timing of greater potential for northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas TAF sites. Within any convection, MVFR conditions and gusty winds are capable. East to southerly winds this morning become breezy from the south this afternoon, and then subside overnight tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 90 72 92 73 / 10 20 0 0 FSM 93 72 93 72 / 10 10 10 0 MLC 92 75 93 74 / 10 10 0 0 BVO 90 69 92 71 / 30 40 0 0 FYV 88 71 89 72 / 20 20 10 0 BYV 85 68 87 68 / 50 30 20 10 MKO 90 72 91 72 / 10 20 10 0 MIO 89 70 91 71 / 40 40 10 10 F10 90 71 93 72 / 10 20 0 0 HHW 90 73 92 72 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.