textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- A Flood Advisory is in effect for the Illinois River near Tahlequah until this afternoon.

- Increasing rain chances mainly south of I-40 Today into Friday. Thunderstorms are not expected.

- Low impact weather this weekend before additional thunderstorm chances return toward the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A large upper level low will maintain its position near the Great Lakes today with a strong, initially zonal jet over the S Plains. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level low will move onshore in Southern California/Northwest Mexico, transitioning into an open wave as it shifts east across the Desert Southwest. This will tend to increase southwest flow over the area with time. Increasing ascent will support expanding rain chances across Southeast Oklahoma today, with some isolated showers potentially extending north of Interstate 40. Lightning potential is likely to remain south of the forecast area and rainfall should be fairly light. Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 60s today given extensive cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

As the aforementioned wave passes through Texas on Friday, precipitation chances will continue across southern portions of the area. Again, the most unstable air will remain well south of us with no lightning expected. High pressure fills in behind this system Friday night, with clouds gradually clearing from north to south. As winds calm overnight, strong radiational cooling will support low temperatures in the lower 40s or upper 30s across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday night.

High pressure provides pleasant conditions on Saturday, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, plenty of sunshine, and light winds. After another chilly night Saturday night, southerly low level flow returns to E OK and NW AR on Sunday. This will help to warm things back up to near/above average into early next week. Then, as moisture gradually recovers, precipitation chances begin to tick back up late Monday through mid week as additional storm systems affect the region. Finer details vary at this range, but the synoptic pattern would suggest increasing severe weather potential during this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A steady stream of mid and high cloud cover will spread over the region throughout the period while winds generally remain light out of the east northeast to north. Some sprinkles or light showers could be seen for KMLC, but no aviation impacts are expected with any shower activity.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 68 49 68 44 / 10 10 0 0 FSM 70 50 69 45 / 10 20 10 10 MLC 69 50 67 42 / 20 20 20 10 BVO 68 44 68 40 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 68 45 66 38 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 66 46 64 38 / 10 10 0 0 MKO 68 48 66 39 / 10 10 10 0 MIO 66 45 65 39 / 10 10 0 0 F10 68 48 66 39 / 20 20 10 0 HHW 67 52 63 46 / 30 30 30 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.