textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026 - Enhanced to near-critical fire weather conditions likely across much of E OK and NW AR this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of NE OK and NW AR through early evening.

- Well above average temperatures, periodic gusty winds, and low relative humidities promote limited fire weather concerns Thursday through this weekend.

- Low chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning across far NE OK and NW AR. Any rainfall will remain light. Additional rain chances arrive early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Fire weather conditions remain the highest concern in the near term. South-southwest winds will remain strong late this morning through the afternoon with max gusts generally between 30-40 mph. Some periodic gusts greater than 40 mph cannot be ruled out. As we move into the afternoon hours, relative humidities will fall into the 15- 25 percent range for much of the forecast area. The driest conditions are forecast to occur along and west of Highway 75, especially between Tulsa and Oklahoma City. Additionally, temperatures will warm into the 60s and lower 70s today, roughly 10- 15 degrees above normal.

These factors will result in widespread enhanced to near-critical fire spread rates today, especially across NE OK and NW AR. Furthermore, high loading of very dry fuels is of particular concern, and this may result in more aggressive fire behavior than otherwise expected. With these conditions in mind, the Red Flag Warning was expanded to include far NW AR counties and most NE OK counties, and will remain in effect through the day. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the remainder of the CWA. Please delay any outdoor burning, respect local burn bans, and take extra care to avoid activities that may cause a spark/accidental fire ignition.

Winds decrease this evening and tonight ahead of an approaching weak boundary, but will be slowest to diminish over the higher terrain of SE OK and NW AR. A sfc low will eject into W OK overnight, helping bring better moisture north into the area and allow RHs to recover well tonight. This will also keep low temperatures rather warm in the 40s/lower 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Increased moisture will keep fire weather concerns lower on Wednesday, despite well above average temperatures in the low-mid 70s. A slight chance of rain develops across far NE OK and NW AR Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a mid level wave and frontal boundary slide through the area. However, any rainfall will likely remain light. High pressure generally keeps things quiet for Thursday, though we could start to see increased fire weather potential as drier air returns.

Well above average temperatures will persist through this weekend as southerly flow becomes reestablished. Moisture will gradually increase as well, but we will still experience a couple more days of increased fire wx concerns to finish this week. Going into early next week, the synoptic pattern will become more favorable for rain chances and cooler temperatures. Moderate to extreme drought is currently denoted across the FA, so any meaningful rainfall would certainly be welcome.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Scattered to overcast high clouds are forecast to remain common through the TAF period over the CWA. The gusty to locally strong south/southwesterly winds should continue to weaken through the evening hours into the 5-10KT range overnight tonight and Wednesday. A boundary is progged to sag into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Wednesday which will shift winds more out of the east/northeast. Winds aloft look to remain gusty overnight and will continue with low level wind shear for southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight. One note for late tonight/Wednesday morning will be a low potential of MVFR ceilings lifting northward with the increasing moisture into southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. At this time, current thinking is for a greater potential southeast of KFSM and will only add a mention of a few clouds reaching the terminal.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 43 72 48 68 / 0 0 10 10 FSM 45 73 49 71 / 0 0 0 20 MLC 51 74 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 36 69 42 67 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 45 71 46 67 / 0 0 10 20 BYV 46 67 48 63 / 0 0 20 30 MKO 45 72 49 68 / 0 0 10 10 MIO 42 68 47 64 / 0 0 20 10 F10 48 74 49 71 / 0 0 10 10 HHW 51 74 54 76 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ054>071.

AR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010- 011.