textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Headline worthy heat continues through Friday, with afternoon heat indices of 105-115F.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in the forecast through Friday. Storms this afternoon and evening may drop locally heavy rainfall.

- A cool front will bring more pleasant weather for the weekend into early next week, but the heat will return by the latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A 500mb ridge is centered over west TX and NM. The ridge is strengthening and broadening its scope today, with some subtle height rises over the region. At the surface, a stationary front is draped from the Southeast to the ArkLaTex to central OK. Moisture is pooled on the north/east side of the boundary across eastern OK and NW AR. As of noon, several sites are already hitting advisory criteria heat, and we are heading for another day of warning level heat across a good portion of eastern OK as the mid level cloud cover from this morning fades.

Model data suggests less convective coverage this afternoon and evening compared to yesterday, possibly because of the rising mid level heights aloft. Nevertheless, expect isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and storms mainly over far eastern OK into western AR that should go away after sunset this evening. Like yesterday, slow-moving storms in a high PWAT environment (within the juicy frontal zone region) could drop locally heavy rainfall.

A shortwave trough noted in satellite imagery and RAP analysis is topping the ridge over WY/MT currently and is expected to make a turn toward the southeast tonight. Lift ahead of the system is expected to force a southeastward advancing MCS tonight across the central Plains. A band of elevated showers and storms over KS may drop down into NE OK by daybreak Friday.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The aforementioned shortwave trough will strengthen as it heads southeast over the Plains Friday into Saturday, as the 500mb ridge center shifts west to the Desert Southwest. The band of elevated showers and storms during the morning ahead of the system will gradually fade as it heads southeast across the region. By afternoon, the surface cool front will be dropping south into NE OK and far NW AR and will continue south across the remainder of the forecast area Friday night. Ahead of the front, another day of headline level heat is expected, while some uncertainties due to cloud cover and frontal timing remain, especially across the north. Models show potential for isolated to scattered storms along the front late in the day and into the evening. Deep layer shear is not particularly strong over our area, but improves closer to the surface and upper low track over MO. Thus, severe potential looks pretty low.

Relatively cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the front, yielding a multi-day break from the oppressive heat for the weekend into Monday.

Ridging aloft will eventually build back over the southern CONUS later in the week, and southerly winds will return along with gradually increasing humidity. Highs are expected to approach triple digits by the latter part of next week in some areas. The forecast looks dry for most areas, with possibly some low chances returning for mid to late week in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Ongoing convection across northwest Arkansas is anticipated to weaken with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Will continue Prob30 groups through 02z. Otherwise, scattered to broken high clouds are forecast through Friday afternoon, with the potential development of mid clouds late tonight and during the day Friday. Additional shower/storm chances return late tonight into Friday morning from a MCS currently moving southeast through Nebraska. Will continue with a Prob30 group for KBVO, as the majority of this activity looks to remain northeast of the CWA and weaken through the morning hours. Behind the MCS an approaching frontal boundary moves into northeast Oklahoma late in the TAF period. Shower/storm chances develop along this front, though the greater potential is currently forecast just outside this TAF period. Winds remain between east and south tonight, and then increase Friday as they veer to southwest-west and then northwest behind the boundary. Outside of any MVFR conditions within convection, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 80 100 72 90 / 10 30 20 0 FSM 77 99 74 90 / 10 20 30 0 MLC 79 100 73 91 / 10 20 30 0 BVO 75 99 69 89 / 30 40 0 0 FYV 74 94 68 84 / 20 20 50 10 BYV 72 93 68 81 / 20 20 50 10 MKO 76 99 71 88 / 10 20 40 0 MIO 75 96 68 84 / 20 40 20 0 F10 77 101 71 90 / 10 20 30 0 HHW 77 99 76 91 / 10 10 30 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053- 055>059-063>065-068-069-075-154-172-254-276-354-376.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-059-063-065- 068-154-172-176-272-276-376.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ060>062- 066-067-070-071-073-074-176-272.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053- 055>057-060>062-064-066-067-070-071-073>075-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-229.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ129-219- 220.