textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1146 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Light mixed wintry precipitation is occurring across the region this morning. Travel impacts are occurring, as slick spots have developed especially on elevated road surfaces such as bridges and overpasses.

- Additional shot of light snow near the KS and MO borders this afternoon and early evening, with limited travel impacts.

- Temperatures warm somewhat through Wednesday before another potent cold front arrives, which will bring precipitation back to the area. Wintry precipitation is a possibility.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tonight) Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Low amplitude mid level wave remains to our west this afternoon with dry slot continuing to expand across the area in advance. As this happens, bulk of the precipitation will shift east of the local forecast area later this afternoon. In the meantime, temps are slowly rising, but still remain at or below freezing across northwest AR and parts of northeast OK and additional travel impacts from light icing remain likely for at least a few more hours generally in the corridor east of Highway 75, north of about Highway 62 in northeast OK, as well as northwest AR and the higher terrain areas of west central AR and LeFlore Co. Current advisory will have a few counties removed, but most will be extended through 3 PM.

Dry sub cloud layer underneath the mid level dry slot should keep any additional precip from occurring, until the wave now located over eastern NM moves ENE through the evening. Expectation is for this feature to force a band of light snow or flurries across northeast OK late this afternoon and into northwest AR this evening. There is a low chance of a few spots picking up some light accumulation, while less than an inch most likely, some travel impacts are possible closer to the KS and MO borders where temps are not expected to get much above freezing this afternoon. Trends with this will be monitored for potential of another short-fused winter weather advisory.

Behind the wave, skies will gradually clear from the west, resulting in a rather cold night, mainly upper teens and lower 20s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

After a cold start Tuesday we will see a quick return to south winds as the pattern remains progressive and sfc high moves to the east. This will result in milder daytime temps under mostly sunny, albeit with a breeze. Considerably milder lows expected Tuesday night with warming trend continuing into Wednesday, but another strong cold front will be forced south dropping us right back below normal Wed night and Thursday. The front appears to be a dry one as upper forcing remains well north, however there are some hints in model data of a weak wave sliding east across the area Wed night which could at least produce a few flurries.

The forecast for the later part of the week remains uncertain as another shortwave is expected to dive into the southwest and eject across the Southern Plains. With cold air in place there could be additional winter weather, but this depends largely on how quickly this occurs. Ensemble forecast continue to show a large spread with the strength/timing of this wave and as such, the forecast follows the NBM with some light winter mix Thursday night into Friday. Odds do appear to favor a low impact event at this time however.

Progressive northwesterly flow upper pattern continues into next week, with another dry and warmer period through Saturday, followed by another cold front around Sunday. This pattern suggests generally dry weather, with majority of any shortwave energy remaining focused to our northeast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Expect cigs to trend down into the MVFR range this afternoon and evening before cigs scatter out tonight into Tuesday morning. A light wintry mix could still be expected for a few hours at the W AR sites, while a band of light snow could briefly reduce vsbys at the NE OK sites this afternoon, and at the far NW AR sites this evening.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 22 48 32 50 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 25 47 29 54 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 23 50 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 18 47 27 48 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 20 45 29 50 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 22 43 28 49 / 50 0 0 0 MKO 22 47 31 52 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 20 44 29 47 / 30 0 0 0 F10 22 50 32 53 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 25 47 30 57 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ057- 058-062-063-068-069-076.

AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ001- 002-010-011-019-020-029.