textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Rain showers continue overnight for SE OK and W-Central AR before exiting Sunday morning.

- Fall-like temperatures early this week trend unseasonably warm by mid to late week.

- No rain is expected Monday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Rain showers are ongoing along and south of I-40 late Saturday evening. This activity will tend to drift southward through the overnight hours as a trough axis pushes through the CWA. As clouds gradually clear from north to south, there is at least low potential for patchy fog development in portions of NW AR/NE OK, but confidence is low. Any ongoing precipitation is likely to conclude Sunday morning with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies during the afternoon as high pressure moves into the area. This will permit high temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than Saturday...likely near or greater than 80 degrees for most locations. Winds remain light out of the northeast.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Overall, low impact weather is likely through the extended period. With a slightly colder airmass in place Monday, temperatures will be similar or perhaps a tad cooler than Sunday. However, low level southerly flow returns to the southern Plains by Tuesday as modest upper ridging develops overhead. As a result, afternoon temperatures will increase through the end of the week, warming into the upper 80s/lower 90s by late week. Low temps likely end up near or slightly below average Sunday and Monday nights (lower-mid 50s) but increase to near or above 60 degrees by mid-late week. Dry weather is likely through the forecast period, though some low rain chances could return by next weekend as low pressure lifts north out of TX. This scenario remains fairly uncertain as of now, however, and the current forecast reflects only low PoPs (<10 percent).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Extensive cloud cover remains across ern OK and nwrn AR early this morning, with low VFR CIGS nern OK and nwrn AR sites, and IFR/LIFR MLC. MVFR VSBYS in fog MLC/nwrn AR sites, with some IFR conditions likely through mid morning Sunday. CIGS gradually improve nern OK later this morning, and during the day Sunday at the other terminals. Light and variable wind through daybreak Sunday becomes northerly at 10kt or less during the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 82 56 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 85 59 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 85 58 84 52 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 81 51 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 81 53 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 80 54 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 83 56 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 79 53 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 F10 82 55 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 85 61 85 55 / 20 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.