textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for locations along and north of I-44 in northeast Oklahoma.

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Thursday afternoon. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will occur within this window.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible on Wednesday primarily near and north of I-40.

- A cold front will bring much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Mosaic radar imagery from the region shows an organized cluster of strong thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary that is draped across southeast KS. Convective allowing models (CAMs) indicate these storms will push east-southeast and into the far northern portions of the forecast area over the next hour or two. Favorable deep layer shear, instability, and lift should maintain ripe conditions for a few strong to marginally severe storms as they push south and east into the CWA, with damaging wind gusts being the primary concern, through the overnight period.

Numerous showers and storms will persist through the morning hours Wednesday, especially across northeast OK and far northwest AR. Scattered storms are expected to eventually push south of I-40 by daybreak, with the bulk of the heaviest rain remaining north of I-40. There is still lots of uncertainty with regards to the convective evolution during the daytime Wednesday. Latest run of CAMs show another round of organized convection moving in from the west by mid to late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. Outflow from early morning convection is forecast to help sag the cold front into northeast OK, helping generate an east-west boundary by the afternoon. A very moist and moderately unstable environment will result near and south of the boundary as daytime heating gets going in the afternoon. As such, showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop near the boundary and off the dryline, which will be set up across western OK. Instability, wind shear, moisture, and lift will all be sufficient enough for additional strong to severe thunderstorms, generally in a corridor along and north of I-40, extending into far northwest AR. The main severe weather hazard with any severe storm will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 65 mph. However, there will be a limited, non-zero tornado threat near the surface boundary.

On top of the severe threat on Wednesday into Wednesday night, the multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms and record (or near-record) PWATs will result in periods of moderate to heavy to occasionally very heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates may be intense at times, possibly exceeding two inches per hour. Once again, the heaviest rain is anticipated to fall north of I-40, with the latest NBM showing highest rainfall totals (through Thursday night) for the northwest half of the forecast area, averaging between 2 and 4 inches. With a Flood Watch already in effect for Pawnee, Osage, Washington, and Nowata Counties, decided to expand the Watch a row of counties to the south and east, as well as Ottawa County. The Watch may need to be further adjusted over the next 24 hours as conditions evolve.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the main upper low/trough axis move over the Plains. Heavy rain, which may lead to flooding and flash flooding, will continue to be a threat through at least the morning hours Thursday, perhaps lingering through the afternoon as the front passes through. A surface low will scoot northeastward across northwest OK and southeast KS Thursday morning, briefly lifting the surface boundary north as it does. As the surface low moves into eastern MO and southern IL, it will drag the trailing surface cold front into the forecast area again by mid Thursday afternoon. Additional convection is anticipated to develop along the frontal boundary as it pushes across eastern OK and northwest AR. CAMs indicate that the severe potential with the passing frontal boundary stays relatively low, though isolated strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the front, given high values of CAPE still around. Still think the higher threat continues to be nuisance flooding, with additional rainfall amounts from a quarter of an inch to half an inch, locally up to a couple of inches possible, associated with the front itself.

The passing cold front on Thursday afternoon/evening will result in drier and much cooler conditions following it. Strong post- frontal high pressure filtering down from Canada will bring a refreshing, autumn airmass for Friday through the upcoming weekend. Expect mostly clear skies, with crisp overnight lows in the upper 30s to 40s both for Friday night and Saturday night, and pleasant daytime highs in the 60s to lower 70s through the weekend under surface high pressure. Temperatures begin to moderate and trend warmer by early next week, trending back above average by Tuesday.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Showers and storms are expected to expand across NE OK and eventually into far NW AR through the overnight hours lowering flight levels into MVFR and periodic IFR conditions. Lower ceilings may also develop across SE OK before sunrise and persist into the morning. The coverage and duration of the showers and storms will focus generally north of Interstate 40 though confidence is low with timing the persistence of flight impacts into the day. Forecast will retain lower ceilings and mention of shower or storms into early afternoon with some improvement possible through afternoon and early evening. Shower and storm chances will increase again during the evening and more so beyond this forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 68 81 51 / 100 80 90 50 FSM 91 71 90 58 / 80 20 20 40 MLC 88 70 87 53 / 70 20 30 50 BVO 78 62 80 44 / 100 90 90 40 FYV 82 65 84 45 / 90 30 30 70 BYV 81 69 85 51 / 100 40 30 70 MKO 83 68 84 53 / 90 50 60 60 MIO 78 66 79 49 / 90 80 90 60 F10 83 68 84 52 / 90 60 70 60 HHW 91 68 88 59 / 30 20 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday afternoon for OKZ055>061-064-154-254-354.

AR...None.