textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Hot and humid conditions continue Saturday, with a large area of heat advisory conditions during the afternoon and evening.

- Storm chances increase this afternoon into the overnight, with potential for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall.

- Storm chances continue into Sunday and into early next week, and temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals through at the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Continued hot and humid conditions and increasing potential for localized severe weather and heavy rainfall dominate the weather concerns through tonight. An outflow boundary remains stretched across parts of northeast Oklahoma just to the south of the Kansas border eastward into southwest Missouri. As expected, dew points have increased along and south of the boundary, with values mainly in the mid 70s areawide and running a few degrees higher than this same time yesterday. Highest confidence in advisory level heat index values remains covered by the existing advisory and no changes are planned at this time. Will have to watch trends in Creek and Okfuskee counties, which may get close to 105 before all is said and done this afternoon.

Early to mid afternoon thunderstorm development remains most likely across portions of northwest Arkansas, primarily east of I-49, due to the closest proximity to the upper level disturbance moving east-southeastward through central and eastern Missouri. More scattered to numerous development near the aforementioned boundary becomes more likely late afternoon and into the evening across northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. The timing of this development is later than reflected in earlier forecasts, with the higher POPs delayed until after 00Z. Locally damaging winds remain the primary severe weather threat, although with the expectation of a slight uptick in deep layer shear, the threat for marginally severe hail will also exist. With precipitable water values from 1.75 to 2 inches in much of the area, locally heavy rainfall will be a concern, especially where multiple rounds of thunderstorms occur. At least scattered thunderstorms will persist into early Sunday morning, mainly across southeast Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas, although the chance for severe weather should be decreased.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across areas along and south of I-40. Additional strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon in areas near the Red River near a surface boundary and a slow moving disturbance in the region. Across a good chunk of the area, slightly cooler and drier conditions will move in Sunday, bringing an end to the current stretch of heat and humidity. The need for additional Heat Advisories on Sunday appears very low at this time. Into Monday, low chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain focused near the Red River and near normal temperatures will prevail during the afternoon. The overall details in the weather pattern toward the middle to latter part of the week remain somewhat uncertain, with the potent upper high centered across the Northern Plains and easterly flow aloft across the area. Given the position of the upper high, the area should remain out of extreme heat for much of next week. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will continue, particularly during the afternoons and in the more favored, higher terrain areas. Late in the week and into next weekend, the upper level high looks to shift to the south and west, putting the region in a more favorable pattern for above normal temperatures once again.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Ongoing convection across nern OK and nwrn AR will impact those sites for the first several hours into the forecast period. Mainly VFR CIGS but IFR VSBY likely with the convection that impacts any site. The convection is expected to gradually develop southward late evening and overnight. Latest guidance supports MVFR VSBY late tonight most sites in light fog with TSRA chances continuing into Sunday morning MLC. VFR expected to return mid morning through the end of the forecast period on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 91 71 92 / 60 10 0 0 FSM 75 93 74 94 / 70 20 10 10 MLC 75 93 72 93 / 60 30 20 20 BVO 70 90 68 90 / 40 10 0 0 FYV 69 90 67 89 / 60 10 0 0 BYV 67 89 66 88 / 50 10 0 0 MKO 72 90 71 91 / 60 20 10 10 MIO 69 90 68 90 / 20 10 0 0 F10 72 90 70 91 / 60 20 10 10 HHW 75 91 72 92 / 30 40 40 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>057-059>062- 064>067-070-071-073-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.