textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather will continue through the week.

- A slight chance of showers arrives Tuesday with higher rain chances this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A mid level shortwave trough will lift northeast through central and northern Oklahoma overnight tonight into Tuesday, while the persistent southeastern upper ridge flattens somewhat. Increasing mid level moisture and forcing associated with the wave will lead to increasing shower chances, mainly along and west of Highway 75 through Tuesday morning. Continued dry lower levels will keep any rain totals very light as much of the rain will not reach the ground. Mid level echos could progress eastward into far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by Tuesday afternoon, but no more than a few sprinkles is expected in those locations. More expansive cloud cover will likely keep temperatures down a couple degrees, but above normal temps will still continue with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Things clear out through the middle part of the week as generally zonal flow aloft develops over much of the southern CONUS. A tightening pressure gradient on Wednesday will provide an uptick in wind speeds, which along with the dry conditions and warm temperatures in the 80s will raise fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon. Conditions will remain well below critical levels however.

Warm and dry conditions continue into Thursday, before a more unsettled weather pattern develops by late week into the weekend. There continues to be noticeable uncertainty in the guidance as to the evolution of the impactful systems during this time frame. In general though, we can expect a break down of the upper level ridge with stronger western troughing and southwest flow aloft developing over the Southern Plains. Various shortwaves look to move through the flow through the weekend into early next week, which along with increasing lower level moisture will bring better rain chances along with some thunderstorm potential. The first system is on track for late Friday into Saturday at the present time with a possible stronger wave and frontal boundary pushing through Sunday night into Monday. A robust upper low could linger in the area through the first part of next week bringing lingering rain chances along with at least a modest airmass change back to near normal conditions.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with some increase in mid cloud through the morning as an upper wave passes. Inserted prob30 shra mention at the NE OK sites per latest short-term guidance btwn 10z and 15z. Clouds will scatter out in the afternoon with clear skies most places by evening. Light and variable wind overnight will become southerly on Tuesday but stay aob 12kts predominantly.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 56 78 60 82 / 10 20 0 0 FSM 56 81 56 85 / 0 10 0 0 MLC 55 79 57 82 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 52 76 55 82 / 10 20 10 10 FYV 51 76 52 80 / 0 10 0 0 BYV 55 75 57 80 / 0 10 0 0 MKO 55 78 58 82 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 55 74 57 80 / 0 10 0 0 F10 55 79 58 82 / 10 10 0 0 HHW 56 81 56 83 / 0 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.