textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

- A cold front will move across the region this (Wednesday) morning, bringing gusty northwest winds and limited fire weather potential. - Near to above average temperatures persist through late week before additional cold fronts bring below average temps this weekend and early next week.

- Precipitation chances remain low over the next 7 days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

As of this writing, a weak cold front was analyzed across central/southern KS. This cold front will quickly advance southward through the forecast area early this (Wednesday) morning. In its wake, winds will veer northerly and become gusty, with occasional to frequent gusts in excess of 30 mph through the morning hours, before steadily decreasing through the afternoon. With these wind speeds/gusts and much drier air behind the front, limited fire weather concerns will develop by late morning and through the afternoon, especially where relative humidity values drop below 30 percent (generally along and west of Highway 75). There does not appear to be much cold air advection behind the frontal boundary and afternoon high temperatures are expected to warm up into the mid-upper 50s (lower 50s in far northeast OK and far northwest AR), or about 3-5 degrees warmer than average for this time of the year.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Strong mid-level ridging over CA and troughing over the Great Lakes will locally maintain a dry northwest flow aloft through the majority of the long-term period. At the surface, high pressure will shift south and east of the area late tonight and into Thursday morning, turning winds back out of the south by daybreak Thursday. This will lead to a brief warm up into the upper-50s and lower-60s Thursday afternoon. A slightly more rugged, but dry cold front will push through eastern OK and northwest AR Friday morning/afternoon, knocking temperatures down closer to or just below seasonal average by Friday night.

Still some uncertainties regarding temperatures on Saturday. A brief period of southerly winds seems plausible starting Saturday morning and persisting into the afternoon as the cold front that pushes through on Friday tries to lift back northward into the area. If this scenario does verify, there will likely be a large temperature gradient from north (highs in the lower 50s) to south (highs in the lower 60s) during the daytime, with a sort of clash of different airmasses. This clashing wont amount to much and wont last too long as another Arctic cold front begins to push through sometime late Saturday afternoon or early evening. Exact timing of this cold front is still not entirely certain. Models show this cold front will drop temperatures well below average Saturday night through Sunday night, with highs generally in the upper 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s both nights. The coldest morning appears to be Sunday morning, with lows dipping into the teens and 20s north of I-40; windchill values would range from the single digits to teens if this verifies. Kept unmentionable (10%) precipitation chances across far southeast OK and west-central AR late Saturday night and into Sunday morning as a weak shortwave trough moves across central TX and may draw up enough moisture northward for a few showers. Everywhere else remains dry.

Strong surface ridging will slide east of the area late Sunday night into Monday morning and bring back southerly winds to start the upcoming workweek. Temperatures will quickly rebound close to seasonal averages for both Monday and Tuesday. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Red River Valley late Monday night into Tuesday that may bring in a low chance of spotty showers to the area.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. LLWS will continue through mid morning, and north to northwest surface winds will gust to near 25 knots at times today. Winds will quickly diminish and become light and variable after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 54 34 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 58 33 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 59 33 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 54 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 52 31 57 40 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 50 32 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 54 34 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 50 32 57 38 / 0 0 0 0 F10 56 33 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 59 34 59 40 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.