textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Storm complex expected tonight into Monday with an elevated severe risk as well as a heavy rain threat that could lead to quickly developing flooding conditions.

- Advisory level heat and humidity is forecast this afternoon for portions of northeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

- Unsettled weather is expected to persist through much of the upcoming work week. There will be multiple opportunities for heavy rainfall and some severe weather.

- Below average temperatures are forecast this upcoming work week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday ) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Through this Afternoon...Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas remain forecast through this afternoon along and near an elevated Theta-e boundary stretched southwest to northeast. A limited strong to severe potential exists with locally strong wind gusts the main threat. Much of this activity should weak with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

In addition to daytime heating, warm and humid conditions are expected this afternoon over the CWA as southerly winds gusting 20-35 mph aid moisture advection into the region. Showers/storms from this morning could keep afternoon temperatures from reaching their full potential, while at the same time help add to the humid conditions. Thus, afternoon temperatures of mid 80s to lower 90s are forecast with heat index values of mid 90s to around 105 degrees. For now will continue with the ongoing Heat Advisory as moisture begins to pool ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.

Late Afternoon Through Tonight...A surface boundary currently located over southeast Kansas into western Missouri is progged to continue to sag toward the Oklahoma Kansas border, and become the focus for the onset of thunderstorm development late afternoon/early evening. These storms are anticipated to initiate over far northeast Oklahoma/far southeast Kansas and remain in the general area before the main cold front, currently in central Kansas, reaches the CWA. Severe potentials quickly increase with all modes of severe weather at the onset, including a low tornado threat. Once the front arrives, storms are anticipated to develop into a MCS and spread southeast through the CWA tonight into Monday morning. It is during this time that severe potentials begin to transition to mainly a damaging wind threat into the overnight hours. The greater severe threat is mainly along and north of Interstate 40, though limited severe potential remain south of I-40 overnight into early Monday morning. The greater tornado threat is along and north of Hwy 412 through the evening hours.

Along with the severe risk into Monday will be a heavy rain threat across much of the CWA. Conditions across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas are currently running 100-200+ percent of normal for rainfall over the past 14-days. These conditions combined with widespread rainfall of 1 to locally near 4 inches into Monday could quickly increase flooding conditions over these locations. Those with interests along creeks/streams should closely monitor conditions tonight and be prepared to act if warnings are issued. A Flood Watch is in effect starting this evening into Monday afternoon. Over the western half of the CWA, rainfall amounts of a half inch to locally over 2 inches are forecast. These areas have received less rainfall over the past 2 weeks, though with the excessive amounts of moisture expected, localized flooding conditions could develop.

Through the day Monday...The MCS is forecast to be over parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Monday morning with the cold front continuing to sag southward over the CWA. A limited severe threat remains with this activity. Additional storm chances are forecast through the day, with the greater potential over southeast Oklahoma as the front looks to hold up over this area for the afternoon hours. Temperatures Monday look to warm into the 80s for most locations Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The remnants of the surface frontal boundary along with the elevated frontal boundary are forecast to begin lifting northeast over the CWA Monday night into Tuesday. Another MCS is progged to develop over the high Plains Monday and move southeast into the region Monday night/Tuesday. There is potential for this MCS to ride along the elevated frontal boundary and create a limited severe potential as well as a continued heavy rain threat. Additional rainfall into Tuesday will continue to quickly increase flood concerns over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The Flood Watch may be adjusted Monday to account for this additional rainfall.

The elevated frontal boundary looks to lift northeast of the CWA Tuesday night. However, another shortwave and associated surface boundary are forecast to drop southeast into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will create another round of limited severe potentials and a heavy rain threat as precipitable water values locally in excess of 2 inches are forecast into mid week. One more round of showers and storms remains for late week from another quick moving shortwave pushing through the central Plains. With the multiple rounds of precip forecast this week, temperatures Monday through Friday look to be near to slightly below seasonal average.

Extended model solutions continue to hint that this unsettled weather pattern we are currently in could come to a close next week as the big ridge of high pressure tries to set up over the southern Plains/southeast U.S. This would return the hot and humid conditions to the region for the beginning of July if this verifies. For now we will just have to wait and see.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions will deteriorate overnight as widespread showers and storms spread north to south across the local region into early Monday morning. Locally strong to severe winds will likely accompany the expanding line of storms. MVFR will largely prevail outside of the heaviest storms w/ areas of IFR conditions at times when the stronger storms pass. MVFR ceilings likely persist into late morning or early afternoon before a rise into low VFR levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 72 82 70 85 / 80 20 50 50 FSM 75 88 72 86 / 90 50 60 70 MLC 77 87 72 87 / 80 60 80 70 BVO 68 81 66 83 / 80 10 30 40 FYV 71 83 69 83 / 100 50 40 50 BYV 70 81 66 81 / 100 40 30 50 MKO 74 83 70 84 / 90 50 60 70 MIO 67 81 66 83 / 90 10 30 40 F10 73 84 70 85 / 80 50 70 70 HHW 77 88 74 89 / 50 50 70 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for OKZ057-058-062-063-068- 069-172-176-272-276-376.

AR...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-119- 120-129-219-220-229.