textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Temperatures below normal through Saturday then a warming trend.

- Thunderstorm chances return for the first part of the work week. Some severe weather potential may exist with details to be refined in later forecasts.

- Below normal temperatures return mid-week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Compact mid level wave continues to dive southeast across the area, which resulted in a few showers earlier this morning. Most recent model guidance offers little evidence of additional development through today, with mostly sunny skies and slightly below normal temperatues. Clear and cool conditions can be expected tonight.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Surface ridge shifts southeast resulting in a return to S-SW winds Sunday with notably warmer daytime temperatures. Southerly low level flow continues and increases Monday with attendant low level moisture increase. Warm/moist advection pattern may result in a few thunderstorms Monday night associated with strengthening low level jet, primarily focused on NW AR and far NE OK.

Cold front pushing through northeast OK early Tuesday forecast to be located somewhere from northwest AR back into southeast OK. Stronger deep layer winds overspreading unstable airmass will result in storm development along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, though coverage and intensity remain somewhat in question at this time. Some increase in coverage is possible as southwest upper trough moves into the plains with the front continuing to push southeast. Severe weather potential remains uncertain.

Much cooler conditions return mid week behind the front, followed by a quick warmup to end next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northerly winds today will become light tonight and shift to the south to southwest at all sites mid to late morning tomorrow. Some gustiness should be expected during the latter couple of hours of the period at all sites except FSM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 70 48 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 72 45 81 58 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 72 49 82 59 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 70 43 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 68 42 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 65 41 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 70 45 80 59 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 66 43 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 F10 71 48 81 59 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 72 48 79 56 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.