textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1202 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Cooler and drier weather through today before warmer weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Low to medium thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday evening. - Unsettled pattern returns late week into the weekend with additional storm and heavy rain chances beginning Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A pleasant June afternoon is in store across the region as cooler and drier air has worked into the region behind the weekend frontal passage. Surface ridging over the area will keep winds generally light out of the northeast with temperatures rising into the lower to mid 80s for most locations under partly cloudy skies. A few showers with an isolated thunderstorm will be possible near the Red River through the afternoon as the mid level trough axis lingers in the area. Severe weather is not expected and any activity will be short lived. The surface ridge axis will slowly shift east overnight tonight, but mostly clear skies, calm winds, and lower dewpoints will allow temperatures to dip down into the lower to mid 60s tonight. Some of the normally cooler locations across the north could see some lows in the upper 50s as well. Moisture on the ground from recent rainfall could again lead to some spotty fog development, mostly across the southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas valley locations late tonight.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Northwest flow aloft will persist through the rest of the week over much of the Plains. Various shortwave troughs will traverse the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region which will push a few boundaries into the region through the rest of the forecast period. Surface ridging shifts east on Tuesday with southerly flow returning to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. That will lead to increasing temperatures and moisture more typical of mid June through the middle part of the week. The first of these boundaries will be fairly weak and approach the OK/KS border by Tuesday afternoon. The result will be a low to medium chance for a couple of thunderstorms to develop late Tuesday afternoon into the early evening across northeast Oklahoma. Severe weather chances are low with these storms, but storms could briefly become strong to marginally severe as modest instability will be in place over the region. That activity will wane after sunset into Tuesday night as the surface boundary more or less washes out over northeast Oklahoma.

Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of the period as temperatures climb back into the lower 90s and dewpoints rise back into the 70s ahead of another approaching frontal boundary. Southerly winds will also become quite gusty Wednesday afternoon, especially across northeast Oklahoma. Heat headlines could be needed for a portion of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon as well, where heat indices approach 105 plus degrees. This next boundary will serve as the focus of increasing shower and storm chances Wednesday evening across northeast Oklahoma. Better instability and shear by Wednesday will increase severe potential somewhat with any storms during this period. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns through Wednesday night, along with heavy downpours. This boundary will slowly sag south across the forecast area through the day Thursday with shower and storm chances following from north to south through the day. Heavy rain potential will increase on Thursday due to the slow moving nature of the front and subsequent storm development.

Surface ridging calms things down for Friday into the first part of the weekend. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals as the passing boundaries keep things in check as far as more excessive heat potential for now. Another mid level trough and associated frontal boundary is progged to approach the region by late weekend and linger over the area into early next week. More widespread thunderstorm chances will increase again across the area with at least limited severe and heavy rain potential through the end of the period.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Scattered light showers have recently developed across southeastern Oklahoma, with activity expected to remain generally south of MLC and FSM as it moves to the east-southeast. Patchy fog continues across the region this morning, resulting in MVFR/IFR VSBY at FYV ending by 14z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected at all sites through the forecast period with mainly low/mid clouds MLC/FSM and mid/high clouds nern OK and nwrn AR sites. Wind will be light as high pressure continues to settle into the Southern Plains today, and shifts to the east tonight. Light fog again possible late tonight at FYV.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 62 88 72 91 / 0 10 10 0 FSM 66 90 71 93 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 66 89 72 91 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 59 87 69 92 / 0 30 10 0 FYV 59 86 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 58 84 66 89 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 62 87 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 60 85 68 89 / 0 20 10 0 F10 62 88 70 89 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 68 88 72 90 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.