textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 908 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Warm temperatures and gusty south winds expected today. This will keep fire weather concerns elevated.

- Potential for severe weather and heavy rain increases with thunderstorm chances tonight into Thursday and again Friday evening into Saturday.

- Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 908 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Early morning surface analysis places a frontal boundary from SW OK to just southeast of the OKC metro and then north from there to near Ponca City. Looking aloft, a very subtle wave (possibly convective related from last night) was near the Red River, ahead of a larger scale upper wave still back over the Southwest.

While signals amongst the latest CAMs are mixed, some spotty or scattered development of showers and storms is forecast across eastern OK into northwest AR during the day today, but does not appear to be related to the front. While the severe threat is not zero with this activity, deep layer shear is not particularly strong yet as we are still well displaced to the east of the main upper trough. Thus, storm organization and longevity should be lacking. Speaking of the front, the short-term models forecast the western portion of the boundary to lift northward and should lie close to the KS border this afternoon. There is good agreement that storms will develop on the front this afternoon and this was reflected in the gridded forecast. With deep layer shear gradually increasing with time as the upper wave approaches, the initial more discrete storms near the front could be fairly organized and would pose a higher-end severe threat, but that threat should be confined to areas close to the KS border.

Lacy

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

An area of surface low pressure oriented from northern Texas through Oklahoma and into Missouri with a nearly stationary frontal boundary along the axis of the surface low are expected to remain in place into Wednesday morning. The combination of these features, a 30-40KT low level jet and instability becoming mostly elevated will allow for slight/low end shower/storm chances to remain into Wednesday morning for portions of northeast Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas, though in a weakening state. Gusty to locally strong winds are the primary threat with hail a secondary threat with this activity.

Through the day Wednesday, surface low pressure repositions itself and deepens back westward over eastern Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles ahead of a shortwave moving through the Rocky Mountains. At the same time, the eastern half of the boundary from Tuesday night retreats back northward over Kansas, keeping breezy/gusty southerly low level flow and warm conditions across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Low shower/storm chances remain into early afternoon for mainly northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas before the boundary and any lingering pockets of vorticity move away from the CWA. With most locations remaining dry Wednesday and also the southerly winds/temperatures in the 80s, limited to elevated fire weather concerns could develop again. A limiting factor will be moisture advection into the region as min afternoon humidity looks to be in the 40-50 percent range.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The shortwave moving through the Rockies pairs up with the deepening surface low Wednesday evening and moves east/northeast through the central Plains Wednesday night/Thursday morning. As this occurs, thunderstorm initiation is forecast to develop along the dryline over the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and spread eastward into the CWA with the movement of the shortwave. Storm chances could start as early as late afternoon Wednesday across northeast Oklahoma, if some CAM data verifies, ahead of the main broken line of convection arriving Wednesday evening. Increasing surface/elevated based instability along with strong mid level lapse rates and increasing low/deep layer shear will aid in severe potentials developing across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The potential for all modes of severe weather would exist with any storm development out ahead of the main line of convection, including large hail and a limited tornado threat. The greater potential for this is across northeast Oklahoma into mid evening.

Severe potentials mid evening into the overnight hours should begin to transition to a damaging wind threat with secondary threats of large hail and a low tornado potential as low level helicity increases along the leading line of convection. Overall severe potentials should begin to weaken with eastward extent late Wednesday night as instability decreases and model soundings become a nearly saturated column. In addition to the severe potentials, a heavy rain threat will also exist through Wednesday night as precipitable water values climb up near the 99th percent-tile for early April.

Showers and storm potentials should decrease from west to east during the day Thursday as the mid/upper level trof axis departs the region. Southerly low level flow looks to remain common behind the departing shortwave which allows for moisture advection and the re-estabilishment of instability across the CWA Friday. Another shortwave is progged to move through the Plains Friday and Saturday with a more defined cold front across the CWA Friday evening into Saturday morning. Storm chances increase Friday afternoon ahead of the front and become likely Friday night and Saturday morning before the front can exit off to the southeast. Severe potentials again develop during this time frame with the northern half of the CWA currently having the greater potential of all modes of severe weather. As the front moves through late Friday night/Saturday morning severe potentials should weaken, though a locally damaging wind threat could continue into early Saturday morning across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

The mid/upper level trof axis exits Saturday afternoon with precip chances pushing off to the east. Behind the boundary, northerly winds transporting a cooler/drier airmass sets up over the region Sunday and the first part of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions with gusty winds will largely prevail for much of today with the exception of potential scattered MVFR ceilings this morning as stratus develops within ongoing moisture return. Scattered showers and storms develop across NE OK by late afternoon or early evening and become widespread by late evening into the early morning hours as a line of convection spreads east across the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 85 67 84 68 / 30 100 10 10 FSM 88 67 83 66 / 30 70 70 20 MLC 86 67 83 68 / 20 100 20 10 BVO 83 63 82 64 / 60 100 10 10 FYV 84 65 80 64 / 30 80 60 20 BYV 81 65 79 64 / 30 60 70 20 MKO 84 65 83 66 / 20 100 20 10 MIO 81 64 80 66 / 50 90 30 10 F10 84 64 83 66 / 20 100 10 10 HHW 83 65 81 65 / 20 80 50 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.