textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Severe storm chances return late tonight into Thursday morning across SE OK and W-Central AR.

- Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and flood potential increasing, especially across SE OK and W-Central AR.

- Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly mixing with snow Sunday morning. A freeze is expected in some locations Sunday or Monday mornings.

SHORT TERM

(The rest of tonight) Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Storms that lingered across southeast OK and northwest AR earlier this afternoon have since shifted east of the forecast area, resulting in mostly benign weather conditions early this evening. The frontal boundary that pushed through much of area this morning has stalled across portions of northwest AR, extending just south of the Red River. The front should gradually lift back northward as the night progresses, positioning near or just north of the Red River by daybreak Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north of this pseudo-stationary/warm frontal boundary well after midnight tonight, closer to sunrise Thursday. A few thunderstorms may become marginally severe. Elevated instability across far southern/southeastern OK is expected to increase between 1000-1500 J/kg by or just after midnight. With sufficient bulk shear already in place, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards if the elevated thunderstorms can get organized. Most of the severe threat will likely remain south of I-40 and concentrated across Pushmataha, Choctaw, and southern portions of Le Flore, Latimer, and Pittsburg counties.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A deep upper level trough will remain to the west of the area Thursday through Saturday, with continuous warm and moist advection resulting in additional waves of showers and thunderstorms. This activity will be ongoing Thursday morning, focusing across southeast OK and west-central AR. Storms will then spread north by the late morning or early afternoon. The severe threat will be lower Thursday than today for several reasons. Perhaps most importantly, the near surface boundary is expected to be south of the forecast area, which would limit our access to the most unstable air. Even so, a few embedded lines of strong to severe storms may develop, with wind or hail being relatively more likely threats. Shower and storm activity will then diminish Thursday evening into Friday morning.

The next period of activity will arrive Friday morning as the low level jet ramps up. By this time, the low level boundary will be lifting to the north, perhaps as far north as a line from Tulsa through Joplin. Areas near and south of this boundary will see a dual severe and flood threat. In terms of severe potential, the low level jet will result in significantly curved hodographs, with significantly instability south of the boundary. The upper level winds at and above 500 hPa will be near the 99th percentile for this time of year, which will aid in storm ventilation. Based on these factors, severe weather may develop. Precipitable water and integrated vapor transport will remain near the climatological max for this time of year, so widespread heavy rain is anticipated. The heaviest rain is expected to focus across southeast OK into west- central AR.

Portions of northeast OK may dry out Friday evening, but rain may continue for southeast OK and northwest AR into Saturday when the next upper level wave arrives. Once again, all areas will see rain, but the heavier rainfall will focus across the southeast portions of the forecast area. Rain finally winds down by Sunday morning. Northeast OK will see a storm total of 2-4", with 4-6" for the rest of the area. If localized banding of heavy rainfall is persistent, locally up to 8" of rain could occur. Unsurprisingly, the EPS EFI has values of 0.8 to 0.9 for Friday and Saturday overlapping the axis of heaviest rainfall. This will result in both river and flash flooding. Numerous rivers are expected to see flooding, with localized moderate to major flooding possible if any of these corridors of heaviest rain intersect flood susceptible basins. Flash Flooding would be expected for the same reasons. A Flood Watch was issued for the highest confidence threat corridors, but may need to be expanded later depending on forecast trends.

It's worth noting that the air will be anomalously cool on the backside of the trough. Some guidance even mixes or turns rain to snow for a few locations north of I-40 Sunday morning. While no impacts are expected, it nonetheless represents a dramatic swing in sensible conditions. A minor frost or freeze may also occur north of I-40 for typically cold locations Sunday or Monday morning. The forecast looks to dry out through at least the first half of next week, with primarily northwest flow aloft keeping temperatures slow to warm through the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Ongoing VFR conditions will deteriorate area wide by sunrise as widespread precip expand quickly northeastward across the region. Expectation is a shield of light to moderate rain with embedded thunderstorms during the morning hours especially from SE OK through NW AR. Thereafter the heavier precip may become less widespread however widespread light showers and drizzle are likely with ceilings lowering into low MVFR to IFR levels through the day. Widespread IFR ceilings likely develop after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 50 61 48 53 / 50 100 80 90 FSM 57 77 57 64 / 70 100 100 100 MLC 56 71 51 58 / 70 100 90 100 BVO 46 58 44 53 / 30 100 70 90 FYV 52 73 50 59 / 60 100 90 100 BYV 51 69 50 55 / 50 100 90 100 MKO 53 66 48 56 / 60 100 90 100 MIO 50 60 46 52 / 40 100 80 90 F10 52 62 48 54 / 60 100 90 100 HHW 60 74 55 62 / 90 100 100 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for OKZ049- 053-063-068>076.

AR...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for ARZ001- 002-010-011-019-020-029.