textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 738 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 - Small rain and thunder chances tonight.

- Cooler temperatures through early next week.

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather returns next week.

- Elevated fire weather concerns develop Tuesday with the return of warm weather and gusty south to southwest winds.

SHORT TERM

(The rest of tonight) Issued at 738 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas as of mid evening. This activity was occurring within an expanding area of warm advection over top a weak low level axis of frontogenetic forcing oriented from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.

Through the late evening hours, this activity is expected to continue to lift northeast within southwesterly mid level mean flow as a shortwave currently over far southeast Colorado to the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles moves eastward into the region. Overnight tonight, a weakening trend of elevated instability is forecast, Thus, will continue with slight chances for light rain showers over the eastern half of the CWA before the shortwave and associated boundary exit Saturday morning. One thing to note, as the center of the low pressure system moves across southern Kansas, there could be enough moisture within the dendritic growth zone to allow for a few snow flakes near the Oklahoma Kansas border into far northwest Arkansas. However, with a layer of drier air within the low levels, it could be difficult to reach the surface.

Behind the boundary, a transition to a more northerly component to the surface winds are expected while cloud cover tries to become more scattered. Temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s near the Oklahoma Kansas border to the lower 40s for far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

For the evening update, have adjusted PoPs/Wx/thunder based on the mentioned above, and also added minor tweaks to hourly temps/sky/dewpoint grids to account for latest trends and observations.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1133 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

The aforementioned front will continue to move southward through the day Saturday, increasing northerly winds areawide by midday. A slight uptick in the fire weather potential will accompany the increased winds, with afternoon humidities as low as the 30 to 35 percent range. Northerly winds will pick up again on Sunday, particularly across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with the arrival of another front. A limited fire spread threat will exist again as a result, with even lower afternoon relative humidities /20 to 30 percent/ areawide. The coldest temperatures of the period will follow for Sunday night, with lows dipping into the teens along the Kansas and Missouri borders. Lighter winds and continued cool temperatures should be expected on Monday given the position of the surface high into parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Elevated fire weather concerns return on Tuesday, with gusty south to southwest winds making a return by daybreak. The low level downslope component to the winds will allow for a quick warm up, while a modest increase in dew points occurs. The latest LREF data show a 10 to 25 percent chance of relative humidities less than 25 percent occurring in conjunction with wind speeds greater than 15 mph into parts of northeast Oklahoma along and west of a Bartlesville to McAlester line. Locally near critical fire spread rates should be expected on Tuesday afternoon.

Warm and breezy conditions should extend into Wednesday, although increased moisture is likely to be a limiting factor fire weather wise. A cold front looks to move through Wednesday night, with a shift to northerly winds and cooler but still above normal temperatures for Thursday. There is a low chance in some precipitation associated with the front, mainly across eastern parts of the area. South winds and warmer temperatures make a quick return on Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Expanding mid cloud in advance of the next wave will overspread the region this evening and clear early Saturday. A few light showers will likely occur overnight but aviation impacts are not expected. A brief occurrence of MVFR ceilings is possible overnight but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. VFR and gusty winds for much of Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 33 50 28 50 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 43 56 29 54 / 30 10 0 0 MLC 38 55 29 55 / 30 0 0 0 BVO 28 48 22 50 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 33 49 24 46 / 30 10 0 0 BYV 33 46 25 45 / 30 10 0 0 MKO 36 51 25 51 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 30 45 24 45 / 20 10 0 0 F10 36 50 26 53 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 44 60 31 56 / 30 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.