textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Rain chances increase Sunday, especially north of I-40 (40-70% chance). A cold front across the area will result in a wide range in temperatures.

- Localized fire weather potential will continue for the next few afternoons in areas with minimal rainfall.

- An unsettled weather pattern continues over the next week with multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards in the mid to late week period.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A midlevel shortwave intersecting a surface cold front will continue to promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight. As forcing weakens, lingering precipitation will die off by dawn. Overall, total accumulation will be minimal, with most locations seeing little to none. Low temperatures will vary significantly, ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s in the far north (north of the cold front), to 50s near and south of the front. The front is expected to settle near the I-44 corridor overnight tonight.

During the day Sunday, the front will retreat back north, with mild air surging northward as well. Afternoon highs will again vary quite a bit. North of the front (roughly Highway 412), highs will be in the 50s to low 60s. South of the front, upper 60s to upper 70s are expected. Shower and thunderstorm activity will reinvigorate during the afternoon and evening hours as another mid level shortwave trough approaches. Rainfall will probably be limited, but the chance for more widespread measurable rain will be higher than Saturday, especially if some of the more aggressive CAMs like the HRRR are correct. Overall, forecast PoPs will range from 40-70% north of I-40 to 20- 40% south of there. Heavy rain and severe weather are not expected. Limited fire weather potential may develop during the afternoon, especially across southeast OK where the threat of rain is lower.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

An active weather pattern will remain in place for the remainder of the forecast period. The big picture seems to be in good agreement amongst most modeling guidance, which is that we will have moist southwest flow and periodic mid level disturbances passing through. These features will kick off several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With that said, Monday and Tuesday appear to be relatively slower days, with less meaningful storm activity.

By midweek that will begin to change with a more robust trough axis providing better forcing to an already moist and unstable airmass. According to EPS climatology, much of the week will feature PWAT values in the 95-99th percentile relative to climatology. A more widespread precipitation event is expected Wednesday-Thursday, with potentially locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorm activity. Then for Friday and into the weekend a deeper western trough will further increase the moist southwest flow and upper level diffluence over the area. This is likely to keep periodic showers and thunderstorms in the region.

With all of this said, this is the type of pattern where you can have good confidence in the big picture but low confidence in the details. The model guidance shows significant uncertainties in the exact timing and location of each of the features that were mentioned, so the forecast details will likely shift around in the days ahead. Separate from the rain/storm threat, it's worth mentioning that the airmass in place will also remain warm through the extended. Most days will see temperatures above normal, some well above normal. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with 70s to low 80s being expected. For areas that do not see meaningful rainfall, fire weather will continue to be a concern through midweek.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period, with expanding showers during the latter 6 hours leading to prevailing MVFR conditions at least at the NE OK and far NW AR sites. While not prevailing, similar conditions will be included in a PROB30 at MLC. The chance of thunderstorm impacts during that same time frame is non zero but low enough to leave out of the TAF for now. Existing widely scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms near MLC and FSM may impact these two terminals during the first few hours of the TAF period. Will continue with the PROB30 group containing a thunderstorm mention for MLC given the current proximity and continued CAM output showing a higher chance there than at FSM. It is more likely that the activity will remain south of FSM during this time frame but will include a VCSH mention. Some uncertainty exists regarding the development of a more cohesive batch of thunderstorms by mid afternoon tomorrow that would be most likely to affect the NE OK and W AR sites, with the HRRR continuing to be bullish in this regard. Will continue with the PROB30s at these 7 sites late afternoon into very early evening. Winds will be gusty at times from the north to northeast following the frontal passage at the NE OK sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 78 48 67 45 / MMM 20 70 70 FSM 81 53 75 51 / MMM 20 50 60 MLC 79 56 78 52 / MMM 20 50 60 BVO 81 42 58 39 / MMM 10 60 70 FYV 76 46 71 48 / MMM 20 70 70 BYV 78 45 63 45 / MMM 20 80 80 MKO 76 52 71 50 / MMM 20 70 70 MIO 75 42 60 45 / MMM 20 70 80 F10 78 52 73 50 / MMM 20 60 70 HHW 80 55 79 55 / MMM 10 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.