textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Near record temperatures continue Saturday.

- Fire weather concerns will be elevated Saturday across eastern Oklahoma.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday night and increase Sunday through Sunday night as a slow moving cold front passes.

- Noticeably cooler temperatures arrive next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

One more hot afternoon is in store across the region as temperatures climb into the upper 90s to near 100 again for most locations. Lower humidity will continue, which will at least keep heat indices below advisory criteria. Surface low pressure continues to deepen over the High Plains of western Kansas, with an associated cold front extending southwestward into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Region. The result of the tightening gradient will be an increase in gusty southwesterly winds across the area this afternoon. The winds combined with the lower humidity, record temperatures, and ongoing drought conditions will raise fire concerns for this afternoon. The strongest winds will reside across northeast Oklahoma, though more receptive fuels are likely across southeast Oklahoma where there has been less recent rainfall.

Later into the afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the slowly advancing frontal boundary across northern Oklahoma. These storms will slowly track east northeastward toward portions of northeast Oklahoma overnight tonight. Current indications are that this activity will weaken as it gets removed from the boundary and will generally stall out northwest of I-44 late tonight and dissipate in the pre dawn hours Sunday. The initial cluster of storms could pose an isolated severe risk across far northwestern portions of the forecast area, with damaging winds the main threat.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible mainly along and north of I-44 through the mid morning hours Sunday as the front slowly tracks into northeastern Oklahoma. Additional thunderstorm development is likely along the actual frontal boundary by late Sunday morning into the afternoon. Initial development is expected across northeast Oklahoma, eventually growing into one or more southeastward advancing clusters through Sunday evening. Initial cells could be strong to severe, posing a damaging wind and hail threat through the afternoon hours. As clusters become more organized, a more widespread damaging wind threat could develop into the evening, along with locally heavy rainfall. Most of this activity should exit the forecast area overnight Sunday. Scattered showers or storms could linger into Monday morning within the elevated frontal zone/WAA regime that will stall out over eastern Oklahoma.

A much more seasonal airmass will arrive in the wake of the front and finally put an end to the prolonged period of extreme heat. Generally near normal temperatures are expected through much of next week, with low humidity and light winds through the period. Temperatures could even trend somewhat below normal on Monday and Tuesday as lingering cloud cover remains over the region through much of the day. The forecast will remain mostly dry through the rest of the period after Monday, as mid level ridging remains in the vicinity and builds more over the Southern Plains by late week. A few periods of showers may try to sneak into northeast Oklahoma through the week, but otherwise a dry forecast will prevail into the latter part of the week when another front could approach the region.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all terminals, aside from potential impact from showers and thunderstorms over northeast OK after about 09z tonight. South winds will gust around 20 knots in much of the area today in advance of approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with the front to our northwest this evening and move into northeast OK late tonight, likely in a weakening state. As such, any storms into early Sunday morning may have gusty wind potential.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 98 76 93 68 / 0 10 60 60 FSM 101 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 40 MLC 100 74 100 70 / 0 0 20 60 BVO 99 69 88 62 / 0 40 60 40 FYV 97 69 97 66 / 0 0 10 50 BYV 96 72 96 69 / 0 0 10 50 MKO 97 72 96 67 / 0 0 30 70 MIO 96 71 90 65 / 0 10 40 60 F10 98 73 96 66 / 0 0 50 70 HHW 98 72 98 71 / 0 0 0 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.