textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Warmer weather returns through Wednesday with a low chance of storms Tuesday and medium chance on Wednesday

- A cooler and more unsettled pattern returns Thursday and Friday, with a low end risk of severe weather and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding

- Additional storm chances develop over the weekend and into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Quiet conditions are expected through the overnight hours. Low temperatures will be well below normal due to the relatively cool and dry airmass, with upper 50s to low 60s in the north, and mid to upper 60s in the south. As we saw the previous morning, a few patches of fog in typically cooler valleys may develop. A weak boundary will settle near the OK-KS border during the morning hours. A couple of showers and storms may fire along the boundary and move towards the area in the morning but are expected to have little to no impact.

Temperatures will warm noticeably over Monday, reaching the mid to upper 80s. The previously mentioned boundary will allow some moisture pooling and convergence, so its not out of the question that a few additional late afternoon showers or storms could form, and some CAMs show this, but the signal is weak. So will just leave some low PoPs to cover the threat. This boundary will wash out by the evening, with no additional storms expected after that.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Additional warming is expected Wednesday with upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Moisture will also increase as southerly flow strengthens significantly, sending dew points back into the 70s and increasing the apparent temperature. Heat Indices may reach 105 F in a few locations, but strong winds may keep the apparent temperature a bit lower. The need for a Heat Advisory will be evaluated on future shifts. A cold front is then expected to approach the area sometime between Wednesday evening and midday Thursday. When it arrives it appears likely that showers and storms will increase with the threat of heavy rain across the area. A few severe storms may also develop, particularly north of I-40. Precipitation chances will dwindle by Friday afternoon at the latest. Temperatures will drop to a few degrees below normal Thursday and Friday.

Saturday and Sunday will attempt to warm as upper level ridging briefly restrengthens, so temperatures are expected to return to near or slightly above normal. Any break will be short lived as another trough develops and approaches the area late Sunday into next week. Model guidance is in good agreement that another wet pattern will occur with temperatures falling near to a bit below normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. A possible exception is potential for some light fog in the valley at KFYV. In addition, the latest data suggests potential for isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon near the KS and MO borders. Inserted prob30 mention at KXNA and KROG aft 21Z. Sfc winds should remain blo impactful levels.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 63 88 74 92 / 0 10 10 0 FSM 66 89 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 66 89 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 59 89 71 94 / 0 20 10 0 FYV 59 85 68 88 / 0 10 10 0 BYV 58 84 67 88 / 0 10 10 0 MKO 63 87 71 90 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 60 85 70 90 / 0 30 10 0 F10 63 88 71 91 / 0 0 10 0 HHW 68 87 71 90 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.