textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Low-medium rain chances continue into Wednesday morning across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Rain totals will remain light.

- High impact winter storm expected late Friday through Saturday night, including bitterly cold temperatures and accumulating snow and ice.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A weak cold front will move southeast across the area late tonight and Wednesday morning. Scattered showers are beginning to develop across far eastern Oklahoma at this time, and will continue into Wednesday morning from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Rain amounts will remain on the light side...generally under one quarter inch. Clearing skies during the day Wednesday will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the 50s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

After another relatively mild day Thursday, big changes are on the way beginning late Thursday night. An arctic cold front will move south across the area late Thursday night and Friday morning, with strong and gusty north winds and falling temperatures in its wake. Temperatures during the day Friday will fall through the teens and 20s, with some light precipitation developing as well, especially across southeast Oklahoma where a wintry mix will be possible. Light snow will be possible by Friday afternoon farther north, but a dry low level airmass will likely result in little or no snow accumulation during the day Friday.

Conditions will deteriorate Friday evening and overnight, with wintry precipitation becoming more widespread and heavier with time. Mainly snow is expected north of Interstate 40, with only a slight chance of sleet mixed in, with greater potential for a wintry mix south of Interstate 40. The best chance for a glaze of ice will be across far southeast Oklahoma, with sleet more likely between Interstate 40 and the far southeast part of the state. Several inches of snow accumulation will be likely in some places before daybreak Saturday.

This initial round of precipitation will continue into Saturday morning, with the transition to all snow sagging slowly south with time. A break in the intensity of the precipitation looks likely late Saturday morning and afternoon before the main upper level system approaches by Saturday evening increasing precipitation intensities once again. By this time, snow should be the main precipitation type in all locations. This second wave of heavier snow will bring at least several inches of snow to most all areas before it tapers off and ends early Sunday.

Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches will be common, with locally higher amounts. Some places will likely receive over a foot of snow, and cannot rule out at least isolated totals over 15 inches, mainly between Interstates 44 and 40.

Skies will clear later Sunday, with cold temperatures persisting well into next week as the snow slowly begins to melt. Overnight low temperatures may dip well below zero in a few spots Sunday night assuming skies are clear and winds are calm, and later forecasts may need to trend overnight lows colder.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Latest satellite imagery shows low/mid-level stratus continuing to advect into the area from the south. Intermittent VFR/MVFR conditions should transition to mostly MVFR after midnight at most terminals. The stratus seems to stick around through much of the morning Wednesday. Light to moderate rain showers will be possible through mid-morning ahead of an approaching cold front, highest chances mainly confined to the AR terminals as well as KMLC. Once the front is able to push through, sometime mid-late morning Wednesday, skies will clear and VFR will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will turn northerly, with occasional gusts up to 20 knots initially behind the cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 30 53 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 33 57 28 54 / 50 40 0 0 MLC 38 57 28 55 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 25 52 20 49 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 33 53 21 52 / 40 10 0 0 BYV 33 51 24 48 / 30 10 0 0 MKO 34 55 25 52 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 28 50 23 49 / 0 0 0 0 F10 35 55 25 54 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 40 59 32 54 / 60 50 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.