textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday afternoon for locations along and north of I-44 in northeast Oklahoma.

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Thursday evening with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially this evening and overnight. - A few strong to severe storms will be possible this evening with the most likely area near and along I-40.

- A cold front will bring much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Convectively-driven outflow continues pushing into southern Oklahoma and north Texas early this afternoon with the boundary looping northeast from northern Pushmataha county to south of Fort Smith. Temperatures south of the boundary were in the mid to upper 80s with rain- cooled 60s and 70s north of it. The main synoptic front is masked by outflow but appears to run from western Oklahoma along I-40 to near Enid to central Missouri. Radar shows an extensive, mostly stratiform rain shield across Oklahoma north of I-40 with more broken, convective showers along and north of the outflow boundary from McAlester into northwest Arkansas. Overall trends have been fairly steady with the intensity and strength of the showers with mostly isolated thunderstorms remaining along the southern periphery forced by the outflow moving into more unstable air. Expect some intensification of storms as this area moves east across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas this evening. Since most of the convection is north of the boundary, the overall severe threat will remain limited though stronger storms could produce strong winds. The tornado threat will remain non-zero along and immediately north of the boundary where low level shear is enhanced and instability is greatest.

Additional storms developing across northwest Texas will lift north across Oklahoma this evening and move into northeast Oklahoma by 03Z. Elevated instability ahead of this activity will maintain the cluster with potential heavy rainfall rates spreading into the area currently covered by the Flood Watch. As the main upper low over southwest Colorado ejects northeast overnight, large scale ascent will aid in development of another large area of showers and storms which will move east into the area late tonight through early Thursday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2" with localized amounts of 3-4" are targeted to fall across northeast Oklahoma north of I-44 within the current Flood Watch. As we saw last night in central Oklahoma, intense rainfall rates and training could easily push totals in excess of 5" locally.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A break in activity to the west is expected as the morning convection moves east into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with a gradual lessening in intensity and rainfall amounts with time. Enough of a lull may exist for instability to return across the area as the main cold front moves through late afternoon into the evening Thursday. Additional scattered showers and storms are expected to accompany the front though wind fields will be sub-par and updrafts will be undercut reducing the severe threat. Small hail or occasional wind gusts will be the main threat with stronger updrafts.

Dry and much cooler air will move in behind the front starting Thursday night with our first real taste of fall weather as lows drop into the 40s and lower 50s. Strong northerly winds will be on tap for Friday with widespread gusts of 30 to 35 mph forecast. Later shifts may need to consider a wind advisory or yet, fire weather headlines across far southeast Oklahoma if earlier rainfall does not pan out. Afternoon highs both Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s before southerly winds return and a gradual warming trend begins into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A large shield of rain and thunderstorms will continue to cross the area this afternoon. Flight conditions will vary from VFR ceilings and rain to IFR. Thunderstorm activity is likely to increase some this afternoon from southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas.The rain and storms will tend to decrease later in the evening. Additional showers and storms are expected late tonight into Thursday morning. Varied flight conditions and thunderstorm hazards should be planned for through the next 24 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 67 79 49 / 90 90 80 40 FSM 88 71 88 55 / 60 30 40 60 MLC 87 68 85 50 / 70 40 60 70 BVO 78 61 77 43 / 90 90 90 20 FYV 83 65 83 45 / 90 50 60 80 BYV 82 68 84 48 / 90 60 60 70 MKO 82 67 83 50 / 90 60 80 70 MIO 76 65 79 46 / 80 80 80 40 F10 82 67 81 50 / 90 70 80 60 HHW 90 68 87 56 / 20 20 10 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ055>061-064-154- 254-354.

AR...None.