textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 613 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm possible through the day Tuesday, mainly south and east.

- Cooler, but still above average temperatures persist through the week.

- Some thunderstorm chance returns by the weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1107 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Isolated showers continue within an elevated frontal zone near the I-40 corridor. Some of this will linger into the afternoon while gradually trending south. At the surface a weak frontal boundary appears stalled near the higher terrain in southeast OK, while a more noticeable push of drier air continues to surge into northeast OK. This weak boundary will potentially aid with some development of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the terrain of southeast OK, which should largely dissipate or move out by 00z. With all that said the vast majority of the area remains dry today.

The push of drier air into northern areas will result in a little cooler temps overnight, with some areas closer to the Kansas and Missouri borders dipping into the mid-upper 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1107 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Upper level ridging will become established over the Southern Plains this week, while a large surface high extends from Eastern Canada into much of the Plains. Dry weather with a slow warming trend can be expected as daytime highs trend back above normal.

A low amplitude wave is expected to top the ridge this weekend, and bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. A potentially more significant system continues to show up in the medium range model data next week, likely arriving beyond this forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Some fog may develop at KFYV late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Most stratus development late tonight is expected to be east of the northwest Arkansas sites, but did keep a mention of scattered low clouds at the far northwest Arkansas sites late tonight and early Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 63 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 67 91 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 67 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 55 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 59 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 61 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 63 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 58 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 F10 63 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 70 93 67 91 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.