textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 638 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Some patchy dense fog is possible again tonight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

- Showers and storms to taper off this evening. After a relative lull Sunday and Monday, near daily rain chances are expected next week. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat.

- Temperatures warm back to near normal for much of the next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

An MCV left from the storms last night continues to spin over northeast OK early this afternoon. A band of rain and embedded thunder extends from the low to the southeast into west-central AR. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest the MCV and associated precip will lift slowly northeast through the afternoon and evening. The latest mesoanalysis shows some destabilization has occurred north of the area of rain across southeast KS, far northeast OK and northwest AR. This is where the greatest coverage of more spotty showers and storms will be, as indicated on radar mosaic. Additional development is possible further south through the afternoon as well as environment becomes at least weakly unstable. Severe weather is not expected owing to insufficient deep layer shear. Rain/storm coverage should decrease this evening with a mostly quiet night expected. The latest guidance clears skies enough across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to allow for fog development toward daybreak Sunday morning.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The latest CAMs and global models forecast a mostly quiet day on Sunday, aside from maybe an isolated shower or storm in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR during the afternoon. Monday will be quiet for most, with increasing PoPs from the southeast Monday afternoon and night in association with an approaching upper low from the ArkLaTex. The upper low will lift N/NNW over the region on Tuesday, yielding higher areawide PoPs that day. Another wave will lift north into the area from TX on Wednesday, keeping higher more areawide PoPs going. A trough of low pressure aloft will remain over the region through the end of the week, trapped beneath an omega block in the higher latitudes. Expect daily rain/storm chances to continue.

With weak flow aloft, severe potential will be pretty low. However, slow-moving storms could drop locally heavy rainfall and lead to isolated flash flooding.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds will continue into this evening over the CWA as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the region. Scattered rain showers along with a low thunder potential will also remain common for mainly far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into mid evening and then begin to taper off and exit tonight. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are capable within the stronger showers and any storm development. Overnight tonight into Sunday morning, cloud cover is forecast to scatter out which will aid the development of fog across parts of the CWA. Will continue with tempo groups for timing of the greater potential, with the greater chance of LIFR conditions over far northwest Arkansas. Conditions should improve after sunrise, with a few passing mid/high clouds Sunday afternoon. Winds through the period remain light/variable into Sunday and then become more east to northeast Sunday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 61 82 63 83 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 63 84 65 83 / 30 20 10 20 MLC 62 83 64 83 / 10 10 0 20 BVO 57 82 58 84 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 58 82 58 81 / 50 10 0 30 BYV 59 80 61 79 / 70 10 0 20 MKO 61 82 62 82 / 20 10 0 10 MIO 59 81 61 83 / 30 0 0 0 F10 60 82 62 83 / 10 0 0 10 HHW 64 81 65 80 / 20 20 10 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.