textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

- Temperatures increase again this week with dangerous heat possible Tuesday onward.

- Predominantly dry conditions are favored for the next few days, but low to medium rain chances return to parts of NE OK and NW AR by Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Upper level ridging expands into the region Monday, promoting continued dry conditions and increasing temperatures. More specifically, highs in the mid to upper 90s are forecast across E OK and W-Central AR, with lower 90s expected across NW AR. While dew points will remain in the 60s, heat indices may still approach 100 degrees for a few of the warmer locations. Aside from afternoon cumulus, plentiful sunshine is likely again areawide.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The ridge will strengthen further on Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures responding and increasing into the upper 90s and lower 100s. Dewpoints will also increase during this time and rising heat indices may warrant heat headlines for portions of the area. The Tulsa metro area and AR River Valley are most at risk for HIs greater than 105 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry conditions are likely Tuesday and Wednesday, though a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon across the higher terrain of SE OK and W AR as deeper moisture is pulled northward. Meanwhile, north of the ridge, broad troughing will develop across the northern Plains through mid week. As a series of impulses round the base of the trough, a weak cold front will be pushed into the central plains and then into northern portions of our area late Wednesday.

The front will tend to increase precipitation potential across NE OK and NW AR through late week, especially while ridging is suppressed as another shortwave or two influence the region Thursday into Friday. While model solutions vary at this range, highest rain/storm potential is currently expected to remain along and north of I-40 late this week. Any storms will likely pose a threat for locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. Heights increase somewhat again this weekend into early next week, though low diurnal rain/storm chances may persist with deeper moisture in place. Temperatures and associated heat risk through the end of the forecast period will depend on placement of the frontal boundary and precipitation coverage, but potential for dangerous heat will likely persist into this weekend. Long range guidance continues to suggest above average temperatures and near to below average precipitation are favored through mid month.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions will continue with light winds and little to no cloud cover.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 73 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 72 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 72 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 67 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 66 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 67 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 71 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 69 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 F10 70 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 71 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.