textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Strong to severe storms will develop north of I-40 this evening and tonight. Another round of potentially severe weather will occur near near and south of I-40 Friday afternoon and evening. - Additional storms are expected Saturday and Sunday. Some of these storms could become quite severe. Close monitoring is recommended.

- Drier weather is expected Monday to Tuesday before thunderstorm chances increase yet again mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A dry line is slowly advancing east across western Oklahoma this afternoon. The dry line is merging with an advancing front, coming from the northwest, with the triple point across north-central Oklahoma. So far, this has allowed for warm and moist southerly flow to fill the forecast area with low clouds. There are signs that the low clouds will begin to erode from west to east the next few hours, with some warming into the late afternoon. This should push high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s.

CAM guidance has gradually trended up with convective development for this evening, with several recent HRRR runs showing scattered storm development along the dry line. Any of these storms would have the potential to become severe, but the highest chance will be closer to the triple point. Accordingly, confidence is growing on at least isolated coverage of severe storms this evening for the far northwest portions of the forecast area. Given excellent shear, instability, and low LCLs, all severe modes appear possible. The window will only be a few hours, however, as the cold front will catch up by late evening, with storms likely more confined to the front into the overnight hours.

The initial hazards with the isolated storms will be higher end, with tornadoes, hail, wind, and heavy rain all possible. With time the threat is expected to shift towards strong gusty winds and heavy rain, though hail and tornadoes cannot totally be ruled out either. The threat for severe weather should wane by the late overnight hours, but some storm activity will likely be ongoing through dawn in northwest Arkansas. Low temperatures will be cooler in the north, falling to the upper 50s to low 60s, with mid 60s in the south.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Storm activity will likely be ongoing Friday morning along and south of the front, particularly in northwest Arkansas. There is some uncertainty about how far south the front will go, and if it will retreat north on Friday at all. But the general idea is that with daytime heating strong to severe storms will reinvigorate near the front, moving south into the evening. CAMs show plenty of potential for severe storms once again, with hail likely the initial threat, transitioning to main rain and wind over time.

There may be a short break into Saturday morning as the front surges back north as a warm front. With continued upper level forcing and a unstable/sheared environment storms will form later Saturday. Model guidance is uncertain about many aspects of this system, but the severe potential appears to be elevated given the environment will be relatively high end. Sunday appears to have an even more extreme convective environment, and anything that does get going may become significantly severe. This would include the potential for all severe modes, including strong tornadoes. However, the question is whether we can overcome convective capping. This will probably not be known with confidence until we see what actually happens Saturday night, but it will need to be watched closely.

The cold front will end the storm threat Monday morning, with mild and dry weather into Tuesday. Moist southerly flow will resume by mid week, with the potential for storms to return by Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Pilots can expect an upward trend in conditions from MVFR cigs scattering out to VFR through the afternoon. The focus then turns to storms. Latest CAMs have storms developing near the KS border late this afternoon, eventually growing upscale into an MCS and advancing southeast with its outflow. Used VCTS and TEMPO to hit the most favorable time windows at the NE OK and NW AR sites. Uncertainty of impact at KMLC too high and thus used a PROB30 mention instead. Low cigs are expected to return both ahead of and behind the outflow boundary late tonight, with MVFR or IFR expected. Finally, there are some indications of sct storm development on the cool side of the outflow boundary across NW AR toward the end of the forecast. Used PROB30 mention to cover threat.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 62 79 57 81 / 80 30 10 30 FSM 65 79 60 84 / 70 90 30 20 MLC 67 81 60 83 / 60 70 30 20 BVO 56 78 52 81 / 90 20 0 30 FYV 61 76 55 81 / 80 80 20 20 BYV 61 75 57 79 / 80 80 20 10 MKO 63 76 58 81 / 70 60 20 20 MIO 60 76 55 80 / 90 30 10 20 F10 63 78 59 81 / 70 70 10 20 HHW 67 81 62 81 / 40 50 60 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.