textproduct: Tulsa
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
- Oppressively hot and dry weather will persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend.
- Rain chances are unlikely through the forecast period.
SHORT TERM
(Through tonight) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
If you remember what it felt like yesterday, you have a good idea of what to expect for the rest of today and tonight, with a near carbon copy likely. 24-hour temperature and dew point trends are running within a degree or two of yesterdays values, which supports widespread heat index values this afternoon in the 105 to 110 range. One change that will be made today is expanding the Heat Advisory to all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, as well as extending it in time through Friday afternoon. These changes were made due to the prolonged nature of the afternoon heat, as well as winds and dew points keeping overnight temperatures up in much of the forecast area as well. Speaking of, lows tonight will again be in the mid and upper 70s in much of the area with local values - looking at you, Tulsa - in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM
(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
For the remainder of the work week, near persistent daily conditions will be in the offing, with upper level high pressure solidly in control of the weather across the area through at least the weekend and likely into next week as well. Low level temperatures support continued widespread triple digit ambient temperatures across the region, with heat index values mainly in the 105 to 110 range. Overnight low temperatures are also expected to remain similar, providing little relief from the afternoon heat. The aforementioned extension of the Heat Advisory through the day Friday was a fairly conservative one, and the expectation is that this will need to eventually be extended through at least the weekend. Uncertainty increases slightly for the early part of next week, with the high pressure center shifting westward and potential for a disturbance and weak cool front to affect mainly northern portions of the region. The bulk of the impacts from this still look to remain north of the area but these features may bring a modest uptick in the rain chances for a lucky few.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period for all sites. Afternoon cu development is underway across the area and expect this to occur again Wednesday late morning/early afternoon. FEW to SCT mid and high clouds may also spread over the region tonight into tomorrow. SW LLWS develops across NE OK overnight as the nocturnal LLJ strengthens across KS and W OK. Sfc winds will be gusty during the daytime hours and remain light out of the south overnight.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 103 83 102 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 79 102 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 79 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 78 103 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 76 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 78 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 78 101 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 79 101 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 F10 78 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053-055>071- 073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119- 120-129-219-220-229.
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