textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 619 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected through the week with a Heat Advisory for portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Friday and Saturday.

- Rain and storm chances continue for much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday night, and southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas Saturday.

- Drier conditions expected Sunday into next week with dangerous heat remaining a concern for the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Early this afternoon a compact area of low pressure/vort max was sliding southeast out of far southeast Kansas into far northeast Oklahoma. At the same time, multiple outflow boundaries remained across northeast Oklahoma to far northwest Arkansas. The combination of these features drifting southeast through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will aid in continued shower/storm chances through tonight. The greater storm potential is expected this afternoon through the late evening hours mainly along and south of the more defined outflow boundary currently from Creek co to Delaware co. As a side note, the original boundary was also located from Creek co to Carroll co.

Latest thinking is for storm coverage to remain isolated to widely scattered through the afternoon for the CWA, and develop into more scattered clusters this evening into tonight over east central/southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. For the afternoon to mid evening, hot and humid conditions along with an unstable atmosphere will create a limited potential for strong to severe storms. Locally damaging winds are the primary threat with a secondary threat of hail. The limited strong/severe potential looks to remain through the late evening hours before decreasing from the weakening instability. Shower/storm chances remain into the early morning hours Saturday for mainly south of Interstate 40, with the greater potential in far southeast Oklahoma. In addition to the severe potential, a locally heavy rain threat also exists into tonight from the ample amounts of atmospheric moisture.

Also this afternoon into early evening, the hot and humid conditions ahead of the outflow boundary are expected to create high temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100 deg and heat index values in 100 to 108 deg range. Thus, for now will continue with the current Heat Advisory, though cloud cover and the outflow boundaries could keep the northern periphery of the advisory from reaching criteria.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Shower/storm chances linger across parts of southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas during the day Saturday before the remnants of the surface boundaries and the compact area of low pressure exit. Behind/north of the precip chances, cloud cover is forecast to become more scattered allowing for hot/humid conditions to spread over much of the CWA. Forecast high temperatures again in the mid 90s to around 100 deg are anticipated along with heat index values of 100 to 108 deg. Have issued a Heat Advisory for much of eastern Oklahoma and also the Arkansas River valley of west central Arkansas from Noon to 8 PM. Conditions in west central Arkansas could be impacted from the low precip chances depending on how long it lingers. Have also kept far southeast Oklahoma out of the advisory due to the precip chances. Shower and storm chances finally exit the CWA by Saturday evening.

High pressure centered out west is progged to expand eastward into the southern Plains Sunday and remain through the first half of next week. In response. the ongoing heat and humidity are forecast to remain common for the CWA through the middle of next week. Thus, afternoon temperatures of upper 90s to around 102 deg are forecast for most locations, and combined with heat index values of 100 to 109 deg will create likely heat headlines each day for much of the CWA. There are some indications for the latter part of next week for the ridge to retreat westward with a shortwave dropping through the Plains. If this trend conditions, then precip chances could return toward the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Potential for thunderstorm impacts on-station remains the aviation forecast challenge for the next 6 to 12 hours. Greatest potential for such will occur in the first 4 to 5 hours of the TAF period at the W AR sites, where PROB30 groups will be maintained. A lower chance exists at MLC, but given radar and lightning trends, the lightning should remain outside the vicinity of that terminal. A very low chance of storms this evening exists for TUL/RVS but given the satellite presentation, think that the chance is decreasing for development that far north and west. Mainly mid and high clouds should prevail outside of periods featuring thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 75 100 77 100 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 76 98 76 100 / 40 20 0 0 MLC 75 99 74 100 / 30 20 0 0 BVO 70 100 73 101 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 70 95 72 97 / 40 20 0 0 BYV 71 93 72 96 / 50 20 0 0 MKO 73 97 73 100 / 40 10 0 0 MIO 71 97 74 98 / 20 10 0 0 F10 73 99 73 100 / 30 10 0 0 HHW 75 96 74 98 / 40 30 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ055>068-070- 071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-354.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ176-272-276.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ119-120-129- 219-220.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.