textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- A very high impact winter storm will arrive tonight through Sunday, bringing climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the entire forecast area.

- Life threatening cold will also develop tonight, continuing through Monday morning. Lows Monday morning will be near or below zero. - Travel will become very difficult to nearly impossible at times.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts will persist for several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

As of late Friday evening, the surface freezing line had moved through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. At the same time, isentropic upglide over the much colder airmass was resulting in widespread wintry precipitation spreading across the CWA. Latest model soundings along with 00z observed soundings indicated a warm nose just above 0C helping to create a snow/sleet mix across east central/southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas, while mostly snow was observed over northeast Oklahoma. A mix of rain, freezing rain and sleet were being observed over parts of far southeast Oklahoma. The warm nose looked to be more pronounced closer to the Red River and as such, a mix of freezing rain and sleet were likely developing.

Through the overnight hours, widespread wintry precip will continue to spread east and northeast over the CWA. Latest data continued with the trend of previous runs highlighting the moisture/theta-e axis a little farther southward compared to 24-hrs ago. Thus, higher precip amounts are anticipated across east central/southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas through Saturday morning with slightly less north of Interstate 44. Within this higher precip axis interacting with greater isentropic lift Friday night, snow mixing with sleet is expected. Farther southward across southeast Oklahoma, with the warm nose a little more in play, a higher potential of sleet mixing with snow is forecast. With the southward trend in data, short-term solutions have backed off some on the potential for weak elevated instability. However, its still a non-zero potential of an isolated rumble of thunder within the heavier axis of snow/sleet. Depending on the exact location of this transition of heavy snow vs heavy sleet will be the difference between higher snow amounts of locally 8-11 inches of snow vs. multiple inches of sleet. Meanwhile, closer to Interstate 44 and northward should remain predominately snow, and closer to the Red River could remain a mix of freezing rain and sleet into Saturday morning.

Snow amounts through Saturday morning along and north of Interstate 40 generally range from 3 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts south of Hwy 412. Sleet amounts of up to 1-2 inches closer to Interstate 40 and slight south are forecast as well. South of Interstate 40, especially south of a McAlester to Fort Smith line, snow/sleet amounts remain in flux with 1 to 4 inches of snow and 1 to 3 inches of sleet. In far southeast Oklahoma, ice accumulations of up to a quarter of an inch and locally higher are forecast along with sleet amounts of 1 to 3 inches. These conditions will quickly create hazardous driving conditions that will continue through the weekend and into next week.

Saturday afternoon into early evening, a lull in precip is forecast. This does not mean the event is over, its just a break before the second wave of precip moves in Saturday evening into Sunday. Besides the wintry precip into Saturday, temperatures continue to fall Friday night with little to no warming Saturday. Low temps in the single digits and teens are forecast for most locations, while highs only 10 to 20 degrees are forecast Saturday. Winds remain breezy out of the north/northeast creating wind chill values of 15 below zero to 10 above zero Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Thus, will continue with the Extreme Cold Warning and the Winter Storm Warning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The second wave of precip develops Saturday evening with a 850-mb frontal boundary/trof axis moving into the region. Ahead/east of this boundary, a mix of snow and sleet looks to again develop over southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas with primarily snow for much of northeast Oklahoma. As this boundary moves through the CWA Saturday night, a transition to mainly all snow develops with snow the main precip type over far southeast Oklahoma Sunday morning. During the day Sunday, the 700-mb trof axis finally moves eastward through the CWA allowing for light snow to taper off from west to east Sunday afternoon. Additional snowfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches forecast Saturday night/Sunday helps bring storm total snowfall to 8 to 14 inches forecast along and north of Interstate 40. South of Interstate 40, additional snow amounts of 1 to 4 and sleet amounts up to an inch are forecast. This would put storm total amounts of snow/sleet at 8 to 14 inches across northeast/east central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to 3 to 8 over much of southeast Oklahoma.

Again, with a snowpack on the ground, very cold conditions continue Sunday and especially Sunday into Monday as cloud cover scatters out behind the departing trof axis. Low temps Monday morning near 10 below zero near the Kansas border to the single digits near the Red River are forecast with wind chill values near zero to 15 below zero.

For next week, southerly winds return Monday night/Tuesday which will help warm temps up closer to the freezing mark, with some locations just above freezing. Though, the amount of snow still on the ground will limit the amount of warming. During the middle part of the week a weak shortwave is progged to quickly move southeast through the region. Little to moisture to work with should keep the passage of this wave dry. There remains potential for another wave late week into the weekend that could have a little more moisture to work with. Though for now will keep PoPs below mentionable criteria.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A quick transition of VFR conditions to MVFR has already occurred at all TAF sites and widespread wintry precipitation continues to fall across all of E OK and NW AR. North of I-40, snow should dominate through the period. A mix of snow and sleet will dominate along and south of I-40. Flight conditions will continue to deteriorate through the night and into Saturday. Still uncertain just how low cigs will drop, but at this time MVFR is anticipated to prevail through the forecast period. However, periods of IFR and LIFR conditions are likely, especially underneath heavier bands of snow and sleet. A lull in heavy precipitation will occur by early to mid afternoon through early evening. Some lighter precipitation is still possible in this timeframe. Another heavy band of snow and sleet is expected after sunset Saturday evening. Winds will remain breezy out of the north or northeast through the overnight hours tonight and into Saturday morning, but should decrease through the daytime, with less gusts. Overall, there is medium confidence with this forecast with lowest confidence regarding precipitation timing/duration.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 8 11 7 17 / 100 70 100 70 FSM 16 17 13 21 / 100 100 100 90 MLC 15 17 9 20 / 100 100 100 80 BVO 3 9 4 17 / 100 70 90 60 FYV 9 13 8 17 / 100 100 100 90 BYV 7 11 8 17 / 100 100 100 90 MKO 13 15 8 18 / 100 100 100 80 MIO 6 10 6 16 / 100 90 100 70 F10 11 13 7 19 / 100 100 100 80 HHW 20 21 13 21 / 100 100 100 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029.