textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- An extended period of hot weather will persist through the upcoming week. Heat headlines will be needed most days.

- Low afternoon rain/storm chances are in the forecast through the Labor Day weekend and again late this week. Storms may produce locally strong wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall.

- What rain that does fall early this week is unlikely to reverse recent drought trends.

- Localized fire weather concerns will exist most days due to the worsening drought.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Overall, quiet conditions are likely through the overnight hours, with lows remaining in the 70s for the vast majority of the area. Sunday will feature very similar weather to Saturday, though temperatures could end up a degree or two warmer. Heat headlines remain in effect for the entire area from 12-7 PM, including an Extreme Heat Warning for the AR River Valley in W-Central AR. Based on Saturdays observed high temperatures/heat indices, there is a chance the Extreme Heat Warning may need to be expanded to include parts of E OK as well. However, given the expectation for greater shower and thunderstorm coverage Sunday, temperatures may fall short of potential in some areas, and have held off on any upgrades for now.

A backdoor cold front is still forecast to push west-southwest into the FA Sunday afternoon-evening. Higher moisture will be in place ahead of the front and isolated to scattered afternoon/evening storms will be possible across the entire area. Deep inverted-V profiles will again foster potential for downbursts and strong wind gusts mainly between 40 and 50 mph. Severe weather is unlikely overall, but a locally damaging downburst cannot be ruled out in this environment. Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy rainfall may also occur. In any case, please keep an eye on weather conditions if participating in any outdoor holiday weekend activities.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Convection is likely to be trending down Sunday evening with loss of daytime instability. The front will continue to push westward Sunday night into Monday with drier and slightly cooler air filtering in from the east behind it. CAMs indicate isolated showers and storms will again be possible to the west of the boundary Monday afternoon, but with ridging intensifying overhead, coverage is more uncertain. Based on HREF/REFS guidance, have introduced 15 percent PoPs for parts of E OK Monday afternoon. High temperatures will remain near or above 100 degrees Monday with heat headlines probable for parts of the area again.

The center of the ridge moves directly overhead Tuesday into Wednesday with more hot and dry conditions. Heat headlines will likely be required through this period. By Wednesday night, the ridge is expected to flatten as a strong upper level low develops across the Upper Midwest into Canada. This is will force a cold front south into our vicinity with increasing rain and storm potential. The front will be weaker by the time it reaches our area, and there is still uncertainty how far south it will make it, but it should provide some cooler temperatures and increased rain potential for at least northern portions of the CWA Thursday into Friday. Southerly flow and above average temperatures return to the area ahead of a stronger cold front which may push into the area late next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue with the exception of any thunderstorm influences. The overall storm coverage will trend higher across western AR compared to recent days. Gusty outflow winds will be likely with any storms which may also impact terminal operations at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 102 79 102 79 / 20 10 10 0 FSM 106 77 104 74 / 30 10 10 0 MLC 104 76 103 77 / 20 10 20 0 BVO 103 72 103 74 / 20 10 0 0 FYV 103 73 101 71 / 30 10 10 0 BYV 102 73 98 69 / 30 10 0 0 MKO 103 75 102 75 / 20 10 10 0 MIO 102 75 100 75 / 20 10 0 0 F10 102 75 102 75 / 20 10 20 0 HHW 100 75 100 75 / 20 10 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-229.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.