textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Widespread patchy fog will be possible Friday morning.

- Low to medium (20-60%) precipitation chances will occur on Friday and Friday night. Locally heavy rainfall, minor flooding, and marginally severe storms will all be possible.

- Rain and storm chances continue Saturday and Saturday night with locally heavy rainfall and a limited severe weather threat by Saturday evening/night. - Temperatures warming to above normal over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday Night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

An area of surface low pressure that has been impacting the area over the last day or two shifted into southern KS earlier this afternoon, but locally heavy rainfall developed on its back-end late afternoon and into this evening. Since noon, MRMS QPE indicates a few swaths of two-to-four-inch rainfall amounts, heaviest in far eastern Pushmataha/southern Le Flore counties, where over five inches of rain has been sampled by radar. Rain continues to wind down, with just a few showers/storms lingering across the district. Latest hi-res model data show isolated activity persisting through the overnight hours, mainly across parts of far northeast OK and northwest AR. Most locations should remain dry through the night. Guidance from SREF and HREF suggest patchy fog developing after midnight across much of the area. Still some uncertainty on coverage, thickness, and duration, but thinking is that the best potential for fog will occur in areas that received the most rainfall since this morning.

Precipitation coverage is forecast to be much lower Friday and Friday night. Mid-level shortwave trough axis will shift east of the area, with shortwave ridging replacing it overhead by Friday afternoon. A subtle wave embedded in the flow aloft and increasing theta-e values may cause isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm to develop by mid Friday morning across central OK. Marginal shear, ample moisture and instability suggest a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out as this convection shifts east through early afternoon. NSSL WRF and WRF ARW are more robust with the morning and afternoon convection than other hi-res models. A second round of showers and thunderstorms may develop by mid-late afternoon across western/central OK as a upper-level jet streak noses into western OK and enhances lift. If storms are able initiate and stay organized as the move into eastern OK from the west, bulk shear values increase enough for marginally severe storms late in the afternoon through mid-evening. Will be closely monitoring trends over the next 24 hours.

More sunshine is anticipated Friday, which should help heat temperatures up into the low-mid 80s by the afternoon for most locations. Mild and muggy conditions will persist Friday night, with overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 60s to near 70 degrees in spots.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm will likely be ongoing at the start of the long term Saturday morning, mostly impacting parts of northeast OK and northwest AR. By midday ridging builds over the area and mostly dry weather is forecast to prevail through the afternoon Saturday. A mid-level trough will move off the Rockies Saturday afternoon and lift north of the area. As it moves off the Rockies, storms are expected to fire off a dryline that will be draped across far western OK. If storms are able to hold together, a large hail and damaging wind threat will be the main hazards late Saturday afternoon and evening with storms as they move into eastern OK. Storms are expected to lose strength and support as they continue to shift east into the area Saturday night. As such, there is some uncertainty just how severe storms will be by the time they reach the forecast area. Stay tuned for updates.

Upper-level ridging will strengthen over the region Sunday and into early next week, significantly decreasing precipitation chances through much of Monday. Temperatures will trend warmer as this happens, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the 90s both Sunday and Monday. Beyond Monday, models and ensembles show another mid/upper-level low undercutting the ridging. If this verifies, another unsettled period of daily precipitation chances will arise by Monday night and continue through rest of the long term period. Increased cloud cover and rain chances will bring temperatures closer to seasonal average Tuesday through Thursday.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

LIFR to MVFR conditions ongoing over parts of the CWA will remain common into mid morning and then begin to lift back to scattered/broken VFR late this morning and early afternoon. Scattered rain showers also start out common across northwest Arkansas this morning, with additional chances for convection over much of the CWA this afternoon and evening. Will continue Prob30 groups for timing of greater potential. Within the convection, MVFR conditions and gusty winds are possible. This evening and overnight tonight, scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast with chances for showers/storms continuing. Winds through the period start out light/variable, become south to west this afternoon, and return to light/variable this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 83 69 88 72 / 30 40 30 20 FSM 86 68 91 71 / 30 30 10 0 MLC 87 72 91 74 / 20 10 10 10 BVO 83 66 88 69 / 30 40 30 30 FYV 82 66 87 71 / 40 30 30 20 BYV 79 64 84 67 / 70 20 60 30 MKO 83 68 89 71 / 30 30 20 10 MIO 82 66 87 70 / 40 40 50 30 F10 85 69 90 71 / 20 30 20 10 HHW 86 71 90 73 / 10 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.