textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Hot and humid weather persists through the week. Heat advisory headlines are in effect Wednesday for portions of the area, and may be needed in the days following.

- Low chances for afternoon storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR Thursday and Friday. Low storm chances continue with a weak front Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The dome of high pressure that has been holding over the southeast U.S. the past few days will remain common through Wednesday again, though with a slight shift east/northeast. In response, conditions across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas the past couple of days are expected again Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 90s and heat index values of mid 90s to around 105 degrees. The higher heat index values are again anticipated within the Arkansas River Valley of west central Arkansas and will continue the ongoing Heat Advisory for these locations. Low temperatures Wednesday morning and again Thursday morning in the 70s are forecast for the CWA.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Thursday and Friday, the ridge of high pressure to the east is progged to become more centered over the Ohio River Valley to the east coast. This will allow for low level flow to become more south southeasterly compared to southwesterly the previous few days over the region. Slightly greater moisture advection in this flow into the region will aid in a slight chance of storm development with max heating both Thursday and Friday afternoons. The higher potential for storms remains over the higher terrain of far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Gusty to locally strong winds and brief heavy rains will be capable within any storm each day. Across the rest of the CWA, partly cloudy skies and temperatures continuing in the low to mid 90s are forecast Thursday and Friday.

Over the weekend, the ridge of high pressure begins to weaken and flatten in advance of a shortwave moving out into the Plains. Temperatures and heat index values ahead of the shortwave and its associated weak frontal boundary look to be a couple degrees warmer Saturday. These conditions will continue storm chances again Saturday afternoon, mainly for the eastern half of the CWA. The greater chances for showers and storms for the CWA exist Sunday into Monday with the wave and its frontal boundary moving into the region. Like the afternoon diurnal convection, storms Sunday into Monday could carry the potential for gusty/strong winds and brief heavy rains.

Into early next week, ridge of high pressure begins to set up again this time over the West/Desert Southwest. Another weak upper level disturbance could slide down the eastern side of the ridge into the Plains bringing additional shower/storm chances for the CWA. At this time, temperatures toward the end of the forecast period, still look to remain in the low/mid 90s for highs early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue with near persistent daily trends.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 78 95 79 96 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 78 96 78 96 / 0 20 10 20 MLC 78 94 78 95 / 0 10 10 10 BVO 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 76 92 75 93 / 0 20 10 10 BYV 74 93 73 93 / 0 20 10 20 MKO 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 F10 76 94 76 94 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 77 94 77 94 / 0 20 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.