textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 723 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 - Scattered showers and maybe an isolated storm remain possible along and ahead of a front tonight across the region.

- Precipitation ends overnight, with increasing north winds into Sunday morning.

- Increased fire weather concerns return Monday through Thursday, with well above normal temperatures, low humidity, and breezy to windy conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 723 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

WV imagery depicts a vigorous shortwave trough marching east across the south-central CONUS this evening. At the surface, broad low pressure was centered over eastern and south-central OK, as well as north-central TX. The latest short-term guidance indicates that the surface low will contract and deepen later tonight as it moves east into southern AR. On the back side of the surface low, a cold front will slide southeast across the region overnight with winds becoming gusty behind it out of the north. Winds/gusts were bumped up some after midnight above the model blend (NBM). Along and ahead of the front, scattered showers and maybe an isolated storm down near the Red River remain possible. Rain chances will end from west to east after midnight.

Lacy

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into this afternoon.. Locally heavy rainfall amounts near 2 inches have already occurred near the Interstate 40 corridor, and some places may see an additional inch or more of rainfall this afternoon.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may redevelop later this afternoon across parts of northeast Oklahoma, with this activity continuing into this evening before ending overnight. North winds will increase overnight, with gusts near 20 miles an hour common late tonight into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Skies will clear Sunday afternoon, with winds diminishing. Afternoon high temperatures Sunday will climb into the 60s. Fire weather concerns will quickly increase during the first part of next week as south winds increase and temperatures warm to unseasonably warm levels. Fine fuels will quickly dry, and elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will likely develop by Tuesday afternoon, especially across northeast and possibly east central Oklahoma. Some places in northeast Oklahoma have seen little rainfall with the current system, and these locations will likely see the greatest initial fire weather concerns.

Winds may be a little lighter Wednesday and Thursday, but dew points are also likely to be lower those days, so elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will again likely develop in some places.

A cold front looks to move through the area sometime around late Thursday, with cooler conditions following for Friday into the first part of next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Poor flight conditions can be expected areawide as a low pressure system and cold front move across the region through the forecast period. IFR and blo can be expected at times at all sites, with indications from model data that cigs should scatter out by tomorrow afternoon. Sct shra along and ahead of front may impact terminals through much of the night. North winds will become gusty behind the front later tonight, with gusts near or exceeding 20 kts. Winds will back off by tomorrow afternoon.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 65 49 66 43 / 50 50 0 0 FSM 62 51 66 41 / 100 60 10 0 MLC 65 50 64 40 / 100 40 0 0 BVO 65 44 66 35 / 50 50 0 0 FYV 62 45 63 34 / 100 50 0 0 BYV 58 47 61 40 / 100 50 10 0 MKO 63 49 64 41 / 100 40 0 0 MIO 62 47 64 41 / 50 60 0 0 F10 65 49 65 41 / 90 40 0 0 HHW 64 52 64 43 / 100 50 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.