textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists today (Tuesday) into Wednesday.

- Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation.

- Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected during the day Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Quiet, mild, and breezy weather will persevere overnight tonight and through Tuesday morning. Will maintain very low PoPs (around 10%) area-wide through around midday, with an isolated shower/storm possible. For what its worth, high resolution models (CAMs) show the highest chances of light precipitation occurring in the terrain areas of southeast OK and northwest AR, where orographic lifting may produce a few showers/storms. Most locations should remain dry through at least noon Tuesday.

Around midday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will begin to center itself over the Rockies. Low/mid-level ascent and upper- level divergence will overspread the region. At the surface, a sharp dryline will remain anchored across western OK. This dryline is forecast to orient itself more southwest to northeast by the afternoon. Latest CAMs suggest there may be isolated convection west of the forecast area early in the afternoon, but more robust convection is anticipated to initiate along the dryline in central/north-central OK late in the afternoon before moving into the forecast area early in the evening. Exact coverage of storms is still a little nebulous at this time, but current thinking is isolated to widely scattered storms will move into eastern OK around or just before sunset, with best overall severe potential near and north of I-44. A plethora of instability, deep layer shear, and moisture will be in place for the potential of all severe weather hazards, including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes. In fact, the atmosphere will be primed for long-track supercells to take place if cells are able to stay discrete. Despite a capping inversion trying to develop after sunset, the tornado threat will remain in place through at least mid-evening as a 40-50 knot low-level jet develops north of I-40, keeping low-level shear elevated. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through the late evening and overnight hours, but at this time, the severe threat is expected to trend lower as storms continue to shift into far eastern OK and northwest AR and away from the better support for strong/severe storms. Another breezy and mild night is forecast Tuesday night, with overnight lows generally in the mid-60s.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A very similar, unstable weather setup will occur on Wednesday. The mid/upper-level trough from Tuesday will move over the Plains on Wednesday afternoon. Instability, moisture, deep layer shear, and lift will all be sufficient or more than enough for all severe weather hazards to occur, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. There is still some uncertainty on how things evolve Wednesday and may or may not depend on what happens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Models show a couple of weak perturbations ejecting ahead of the main trough axis mid-late Wednesday morning, sparking convection across eastern OK and northwestern AR through the early-mid afternoon hours. Models show an uncapped environment with these storms and they would have the potential to become severe. But the main severe potential is still expected to occur late afternoon into the evening as storms initiate off the dryline, which will be situated across central/north-central OK. Better details on the severe weather setup on Wednesday to come over the next 24 hours.

The aforementioned trough will finally exit Thursday morning/afternoon. Very warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday and Friday, with afternoon high temperatures reaching the low-mid 80s both days. Another potent upper-level storm system will approach from the west on Friday, introducing the next opportunity of precipitation and will also bring additional severe thunderstorm opportunities to the area during the afternoon and evening. Details are even more indefinite with this system and more information will be added over the next few days.

A cold front will push through the forecast area on the backside of the the departing storm system Friday night into Saturday morning. Precipitation chances should end by Saturday afternoon, with dry weather through at least Sunday night. Much cooler and drier weather is anticipated behind the front on Saturday, Sunday and even through the first part of the upcoming workweek, with temperatures dropping closer to seasonal average. Low-end precipitation chances may creep back into the forecast next Monday afternoon/evening as a weak and subtle wave approaches from the west.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Low clouds will overspread the region over the next several hours, with the highest potential for MVFR cigs from KMLC northeast into NW AR. There is some potential at the NE OK sites, though confidence is lower and have thus continued TEMPO mention from previous forecast. LLWS conditions are expected through around daybreak Tuesday, followed by strong and gusty south winds during the day. Storms are expected to develop on the dryline Tuesday afternoon, but latest CAM guidance does not have much in the way of coverage. Thus, will continue prob30 mention from previous forecast and adjust the timing back just a bit.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 84 67 77 62 / 50 70 80 60 FSM 84 67 80 64 / 20 50 70 90 MLC 82 66 77 64 / 40 70 80 70 BVO 86 64 78 57 / 50 60 70 60 FYV 82 64 76 61 / 20 60 70 90 BYV 83 66 77 62 / 10 60 70 90 MKO 82 65 76 61 / 40 70 80 70 MIO 83 65 75 61 / 50 70 80 80 F10 82 64 76 62 / 50 70 80 60 HHW 81 65 77 64 / 20 30 60 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.