textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Additional rounds of thunderstorms possible through Friday evening. Any heavy rainfall will lead to rapid onset flooding across much of NE OK.

- Limited severe weather potential Friday afternoon and evening.

- A more typical summer time pattern expected early next week. Heat advisory headlines will likely be needed.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Several areas of convection were ongoing late Thursday evening across the region. A complex of decaying thunderstorms was observed moving east-southeast across central Oklahoma early tonight, and this may drift into portions of east-central and southeast Oklahoma tonight with lingering shower/storm potential. Additionally, a wake low has developed late across N-Central OK, and is producing wind gusts between 40-50 mph. This may influence portions of northeast Oklahoma overnight as it shifts eastward.

In Kansas, a west-east line of thunderstorms has developed within a zone of southerly low level isentropic ascent, coinciding with very high PWATs (near climatological maximums) and mid-level instability. Guidance suggests the airmass in NE OK and NW AR may recover overnight and a gradual expansion of KS convection into northern portions of the area is possible. While exact convective evolution is uncertain, rain and storm chances will remain elevated overnight, especially north of I-40. Heavy rain and flooding concerns will be maintained with any convective activity, particularly across NE OK where plentiful rain has fallen over the past few days. While a strong storm or two is possible overnight, severe weather is unlikely. Latest guidance indicates a lull in precipitation Friday morning as heights begin to rise.

A semi-stationary frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the vicinity through the day Friday. Despite a gradual trend toward increasing ridging in the area, the atmosphere will remain very moist and unstable enough to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain the primary concern and the Flood Watch has been extended until 7 PM Friday as a result. Further extensions may be required into Friday evening. Shear will be notably less than Thursday, but at least marginally severe wind and hail will remain possible given strong instability. High temperatures are forecast to top out in the 80s or lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Scattered showers and storms may persist Friday evening and early overnight as a subtle wave traverses the Central Plains. However, conditions should trend drier with time as ridging becomes increasingly dominant. By Saturday onward, dry and hot conditions are likely as we enter a more typical summertime pattern. High temperatures in the 90s and elevated dew points will lead to heat indices greater than 105 degrees for several days next week, and heat headlines will likely be required. Isolated afternoon convection cannot be entirely ruled out next week, but overall dry conditions are likely.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and persist well into the evening, with potential impacts at the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 90 76 92 79 / 50 50 20 0 FSM 91 77 93 77 / 20 10 10 0 MLC 90 79 92 77 / 10 10 10 0 BVO 87 72 91 78 / 30 50 20 0 FYV 86 73 89 75 / 40 20 20 0 BYV 85 72 88 74 / 40 50 30 0 MKO 88 76 91 77 / 30 20 10 0 MIO 86 72 90 76 / 60 40 30 0 F10 89 76 91 76 / 20 10 10 0 HHW 90 77 92 75 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ055>070-154-254-354.

AR...None.