textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1042 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Rain chances return late tonight through Sunday. Highest rainfall amounts are expected across SE OK.

- Warming and quiet through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1042 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

High pressure will maintain dry conditions through this afternoon under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures will be comparable to yesterday across the forecast area, primarily in the 50s. By late afternoon and evening, clouds will be increasing from west to east as an upper low and associated sfc trough move into W Oklahoma. While lingering influence from high pressure and dry lower levels will initially limit rainfall, moisture advection will bring PWATs up to near 1 inch tonight and rain is eventually expected for most of the CWA tonight/Sunday.

The best chance of rain, as well as highest rainfall rates, will occur from early Sunday morning through the afternoon hours as lift becomes maximized. The greatest amounts (0.5 to 1.25 inches) are expected across SE OK and west of the FA, closer to the upper low track and higher moisture content. Totals decrease from SW to NE, with NW AR likely seeing very little, if any, out of this storm system. Additionally, instability will remain very weak, but a couple lightning strikes cannot be totally ruled out in the vicinity of the Red River.

Given dense and persistent cloudiness, temperatures will struggle to warm during the day Sunday...especially across E OK. Afternoon highs are generally near or below 50 degrees for most of the FA.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1042 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A few showers may linger around Sunday evening and early overnight, but additional amounts will remain light. Dry weather is then expected through mid week as heights increase and the sfc high expands back into the region. This will also result in warming temperatures. By Tuesday and Wednesday, highs are likely to increase back into the 60s. Locations across far NE OK and NW AR may experience near freezing temperatures Sunday night and Monday night, where cloud cover is thinner or clears. Lows in the 40s or greater are likely thereafter.

A shortwave will rapidly move northeast across the central plains late Wednesday and potentially brush the northwestern edge of CWA with a weak cold front. At this time, impacts appear negligible with this system. Deterministic and ensemble guidance then indicate a stronger trough will swing through the plains next weekend and provide higher rain chances as well as potential for a significant cool down. However, exact details and impacts vary at this range.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Expect increasing clouds and lowering cigs, though they should remain VFR through midday Sunday. Rain will spread in from the west late tonight into Sunday and will affect the E OK sites. There is some chance that vsbys drop to MVFR in the more solid rain down in SE OK at KMLC toward the end of the forecast. Prevailing winds will be E to SE but blo impactful levels.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 57 40 49 38 / 0 30 60 30 FSM 56 40 52 38 / 0 20 40 50 MLC 57 41 45 40 / 0 60 90 70 BVO 57 36 52 34 / 0 20 30 10 FYV 55 34 54 31 / 0 10 10 10 BYV 52 33 53 33 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 55 40 47 38 / 0 30 60 50 MIO 55 36 55 33 / 0 10 10 0 F10 56 40 45 39 / 0 60 90 60 HHW 57 41 46 42 / 0 70 90 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.