textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Oppressively hot and dry weather will persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend.

- Rain chances are unlikely through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

It is yet another hot and dry day with maximum heat indices between 105 and 110 likely across the FA. As occurred yesterday, a few locations may briefly exceed 110, but still expect this to remain isolated and short enough in duration to avoid any upgrades to Extreme Heat Warning. With that said, if observational trends warrant, a short-fused warning cannot be ruled out. Not much relief is expected overnight as even the lowest temperatures in the CWA only fall into the mid 70s. In fact, most areas will remain in the 80s for much of the night. Because of the intensity and duration of the heat, with little to no relief overnight, the Heat Advisory will continue through the nighttime hours.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the forecast through the end of this week and into the next. High temperatures will generally remain steady in the upper 90s/lower 100s, but could increase a couple degrees over the weekend as the ridge intensifies overhead. All in all, dangerous heat will persist over the next several days with daily heat index values greater than 105 degrees. Some areas of NE OK may need to be upgraded to a warning for Thursday, but given the potential for stronger afternoon winds to help mix out dewpoints more, as well as reduce the WBGT impact slightly, will hold off for now. Otherwise, the Heat Advisory was extended until 8 PM Sunday as dangerous heat looks likely into early next week. Additional extensions (partial or full) may be required over the coming days. As mentioned above, breezy afternoon SW winds will continue, especially Thursday and Friday. This may promote a limited fire weather threat given the continued dry and hot conditions.

Guidance continues to suggest potential for a weak frontal boundary to move into at least northern parts of the area Monday. If the front did manage to push into our area, it appears there would be a brief window for some low rain chances over NE OK and NW AR, as well as a slight cool down. However, given the forecast strength of the ridge (~597dam) and recent model behavior, there is reason to be skeptical. For now, the theme of hot and dry will persist for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period for all sites. Winds will decrease this evening, but likely remain near 5-10 kts through the night. Additionally, LLWS will develop again for NE OK sites during the overnight hours. Sfc winds increase again Thursday morning areawide, with gusts between 20-25 kts into the afternoon, especially for NE OK sites. Diurnal cu and FEW to SCT mid/high level clouds will continue through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 83 103 83 103 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 81 102 80 103 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 81 101 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 79 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 77 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 79 99 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 79 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 80 101 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 F10 79 102 79 103 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 79 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-055>071- 073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119- 120-129-219-220-229.