textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Shower and storms chances drastically increase west to east this evening for eastern Oklahoma and late tonight into Thursday morning for northwest Arkansas.

- Several periods of a heavy rain as well as limited severe weather potential exists this evening/tonight and Thursday. Heavy rain potential tapers off during the day Friday.

- A cold frontal passage overnight Thursday night will cause temperatures to become more fall-like starting Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Southwesterly mid-level flow continues to increase today as a robust upper-level trough approaches from the southwest. IR/WV satellite imagery from GOES-19 shows the upper low spinning over western New Mexico. Positive vorticity advection ahead of the trough axis is already beginning to tap into the Gulf moisture that is lifting northward into Oklahoma. Satellite imagery shows a very apparent dry slot has moved into western Oklahoma, just ahead of the trough axis and directly behind the remnants of tropical system Polo. A developing surface low across the High Plains will cause an enhanced moisture/surface boundary to develop in western/central Oklahoma later this afternoon. The dry slot will help promote the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop well ahead of these surface features this afternoon, with storm initiation across central Oklahoma. Hi-res models show these storms moving into eastern Oklahoma by late this afternoon or early this evening, but do not have them lasting too long before dissipating or moving out of the area.

Precipitation coverage and intensity will increase late this evening and into the overnight period as a 30-40 knot low-level jet ramps up forcing over the region. As the low-level jet begins to get going early this evening, recent hi-res models show a secondary wave/line/cluster of storms developing along the surface boundary in western Oklahoma. These storms are forecast to move into eastern Oklahoma late/overnight tonight and into western Arkansas around daybreak Thursday. There is a limited potential for severe thunderstorms with this cluster of storms overnight, especially for central and western areas of the forecast area tonight. Because forcing and instability decreases from west to east, the line/broken line of storms should be weakening as the storms move into western Arkansas. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary severe threat, though there remains a non-zero potential for a quick tornado or two along the leading line. In addition to the severe potential, an abundance of deep tropical moisture, with PWATs approaching 1.75 to 2.0 inches, will create a heavy rain threat through the night and into Thursday morning, which could lead to localized flooding conditions.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, with the line/broken line gradually deteriorating and sliding east of the forecast area by mid afternoon. As the upper low lifts northeastward into southwest Kansas Thursday afternoon, the aforementioned mid-level dry slot will move over eastern Oklahoma. Hi-res CAMs are in agreement that the dry slot, along with an approaching cold front from the north, will contribute to destabilization and production of showers and thunderstorms along and just ahead of the frontal boundary in eastern Oklahoma during the mid to late afternoon timeframe. Severe, damaging wind gusts and heavy rain will be the primary severe threats, but there might be enough dry air aloft and low- level wind shear for isolated marginally severe hail and a quick spin up tornado or two, respectively.

As the upper low continues to lift northeastward into the Central/Northern Plains Thursday evening into the overnight hours Thursday night, it will help push a cold front into the forecast area. The heavy rainfall axis Thursday night into Friday morning looks to set up south and east of I-44, ahead of the approaching front. The front gradually pushes south of the area by late Friday afternoon/early evening, with precipitation chances decreasing from north to south behind it. The upper-level trough axis will stick around and hover over the area through at least Saturday, maintaining low to medium rain (with isolated thunder) chances (20-50%). As the trough axis finally departs Saturday night into Sunday morning, a weak upper-level low, centered over central Texas, may keep light shower chances across southeast Oklahoma through the day on Sunday, as well. Rainfall amounts stay light on Saturday and Sunday, especially compared to rainfall amounts over the next couple of days.

Total rainfall amounts through the upcoming weekend could vary greatly across the forecast area. In general, amounts 1 to 3 inches will be common for most locations. However, consistent banding and training, along with the significantly heavier downpours, will likely cause isolated footprints of 5 inches or greater in spots. On the flip side, it is possible a few areas may not even reach an inch of rain. The heaviest rainfall is still currently forecast to occur late tonight through Friday morning. Widespread nuisance/minor flooding is likely, with isolated flash flooding possible at times. The greater flooding potential remains over east central and southeast Oklahoma.

Behind the cold front, temperatures are finally forecast to become and remain cooler than average through the majority of the long-term. Anticipate daytime high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 70s and overnight low temperatures generally from the low to mid 50s to lower 60s through the rest of the week into next week.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Showers and few/scattered thunderstorms spread east/northeast across eastern Oklahoma this evening. Brief periods of MVFR conditions and locally heavy rains could develop within the stronger storms. Additional showers and storms are expected to move across eastern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas tonight into Thursday, and remain possible through the day Thursday. MVFR conditions are forecast with this main round of precip along with a continued heavy rain threat. Precip chances becomes more scattered over northeast Oklahoma during the afternoon hours. Mid and high clouds ahead of the main line of precip become scattered to overcast IFR/MVFR ceilings tonight through much of the day Thursday over the CWA. Winds vary between southerly and easterly for much of the period, and could become variable with the storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 70 77 64 72 / 90 90 70 30 FSM 75 84 70 80 / 40 70 80 80 MLC 70 81 65 80 / 80 90 70 50 BVO 66 77 61 71 / 100 90 60 20 FYV 69 80 63 76 / 40 70 80 60 BYV 72 82 66 74 / 20 70 80 80 MKO 68 79 65 76 / 70 90 70 50 MIO 69 76 63 71 / 60 80 70 20 F10 67 79 63 75 / 90 90 60 50 HHW 72 81 68 81 / 60 90 70 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.