textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Low rain and storm chances persist through Saturday.

- Advisory level heat and humidity is forecast Sunday for portions of the area.

- Another period of unsettled weather is expected to begin Sunday and persist possibly into Tuesday. There will be multiple opportunities for heavy rainfall and some severe weather during this time frame.

- Daily storm chances forecast for much of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Over far SE OK near the Red River, an MCV left over from storm activity earlier in the day is spinning over the area and moving slowly east. Shower coverage has increased recently on its northern side with models showing an increase in storm activity to its south in NE TX tonight. The storm activity should stay south and east of the forecast area but some PoPs were kept over this area for the shower activity. The old boundary over TX will lift/redevelop north on Saturday as low pressure strengthens over CO in advance of a shortwave trough. The models are not too excited with precip coverage over our area, with the more isolated diurnal activity confined mainly to far eastern OK and western AR.

Skies have cleared across NE OK and temps are expected to drop to near the dewpoint by morning. Some patchy fog was added to the forecast around daybreak.

A warming trend gets going Saturday, with highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 80s.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Storms are expected to fire over the central High Plains and along/north of the warm front farther east, with one or more MCSs expected to progress across KS Saturday night. Overall, the guidance today has trended farther north with the bigger impacts, but chances for some showers and storms to graze NE OK and NW AR are pretty good.

Low level south to southwest flow will increase on Sunday as the low pressure drops down into northwest OK ahead of a front over KS. Sunday will be the warmest day of this forecast with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Forecast afternoon heat indices will be near or at advisory level along and west of hwy 75 and in the lower Ark River Valley and an advisory will likely be needed.

There is a chance that outflow from the morning activity to our north drops down close to the state borders and focuses storms that afternoon. The front will then settle down into the region by Sunday evening, and storms will begin to fire on the boundary and drop south Sunday night. These storms will likely pose the highest severe weather risk for this forecast. The boundary is expected to hang up south of I-40, with yet another round of storms Monday afternoon and night. Storm chances could linger into Tuesday, but that will depend on what happens with previous convection. The effective boundary could get shoved far enough south such that the better storm chances Tuesday could be south of the Red River. Multiple rounds of storms in an above average moist environment (PWATs pushing 2 inches) will raise the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding. Organized severe weather is not expected,

A mid-level ridge is expected to strengthen/amplify over the Desert Southwest next week, with NW flow aloft prevailing over the Plains. While there are differences regarding timing, the pattern favors the potential for nighttime MCSs to track across the region during the middle to latter part of next week.

Lacy

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas of low clouds and patchy fog resulting in some IFR/MVFR conditions at ern OK sites this morning. Conditions will improve by mid morning, with all sites becoming VFR thereafter through the remainder of the forecast period. Some afternoon convection is possible sern OK and wrn AR but chances are too low to mention in forecasts at this time. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in wrn KS this afternoon and become organized as they moved east and southeast overnight toward nern OK. Some of this activity could affect BVO late in the period, so included PROB30 there after 21/09z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 88 75 94 71 / 10 10 20 90 FSM 90 73 93 75 / 10 10 10 90 MLC 89 75 92 76 / 20 10 10 80 BVO 87 73 93 67 / 10 20 40 80 FYV 86 71 88 70 / 20 20 30 90 BYV 86 71 87 69 / 30 20 30 90 MKO 87 74 91 72 / 10 10 10 90 MIO 87 73 90 67 / 20 20 60 90 F10 87 74 92 72 / 10 10 10 80 HHW 86 74 90 76 / 20 20 10 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.