textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Headline worthy heat continues into Wednesday, with afternoon heat indices of 105-115F. Dangerous heat is likely to persist for portions of the area through Friday.

- Rain and storm chances to gradually increase over the next few days over portions of the area.

- A more noticeable front will bring much more pleasant weather for the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Satellite imagery and RAP analysis indicates the H5-H25 ridge center is located just to our west this afternoon. A subtle shortwave trough was located over eastern KS into western MO, dropping southeast around the ridge. At the surface, a weak boundary is located over NE OK and far northern AR. A back door cold front is advancing south and west over the Missouri and mid- Mississippi Valleys.

An isolated afternoon shower or storm is most likely to form over in the Ozarks near the weak boundary farther displaced from the ridge aloft. CAMs and the GFS suggest the better chance for showers and storms will be tonight into Wednesday morning as the weak upper disturbance to our north interacts with the approaching back door front, though this appears will be just to the north and east of the forecast area.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Shower and storm chances will continue in the vicinity of the frontal zone Wednesday and Thursday, which is likely to lie from SE-NW over the eastern portion of the forecast area. PoPs will still be low on Wednesday and confined mainly to the east. Moisture pooling near the boundary is also likely to result in higher dewpoints. With forecast highs still expected to be near triple digits over most of the area, forecast heat indices are expected to reach advisory level across E OK and the lower Ark River Valley. A few locations may touch 110F, but elected to hold off on a warning given uncertainties with cloud cover. Heat headlines may be needed for portions of the area Thursday and Friday as well depending on how things shake out with clouds and storms.

Indications in the CAMs and GFS suggest an uptick in coverage Wednesday night into Thursday morning before the boundary either washes out or retreats north out of the area and with an upper wave Thursday night into Friday morning.

A weather pattern change is expected by the end of the week, and will bring big positive changes. The H5 ridge center retrogrades back to the Desert Southwest while a shortwave trough drops southeast over the heart of the CONUS. This system will force a more noticeable cool front south across the region Friday, with low storm chances associated with the boundary. Below average cooler and more importantly less humid weather is expected behind the front for the upcoming weekend.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Broken high clouds along with periods of scattered/broken mid clouds are forecast over the CWA through the TAF period as a weak mid level shortwave drops southeast into the region. Isolated shower/storm potential exists into this evening as a surface boundary enters from the north. The greater precip potential continues to be over parts of northwest Arkansas tonight into Wednesday morning. For now will continue with Prob30 groups for KXNA/KFYV/KROG for general timing. Winds remain variable for much of the period with a more east/southeasterly direction forecast Wednesday. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions should persist through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 80 100 79 98 / 10 10 40 10 FSM 78 99 77 95 / 10 30 40 30 MLC 78 100 78 98 / 10 10 20 10 BVO 75 99 75 96 / 10 20 40 20 FYV 74 94 73 91 / 20 40 50 40 BYV 74 91 72 89 / 30 40 40 60 MKO 77 99 76 96 / 10 20 30 10 MIO 76 95 75 93 / 20 20 50 40 F10 76 101 76 98 / 10 10 20 10 HHW 75 98 76 96 / 0 10 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-063-068- 069-073-075-172-276-376.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062- 064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-354.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053- 055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 119-120-229.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219- 220.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ129-219-220- 229.