textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 618 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- High heat stress conditions continue through Sunday. - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying fuels and periods of gusty winds.

- A weak front will bring widely scattered storm chances and slightly cooler temperatures late this afternoon into Monday. Localized strong downburst winds possible. Any cooling of temperatures should be minor.

- After another couple of days of very hot weather Tuesday into Wednesday, uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals of slightly cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Winds have begun to shift to a more westerly direction across much of northeast Oklahoma along and north of I-44 late this morning, with the shift to northerly winds associated with the weak cold front sitting just outside the northwestern corner of Osage County. The front will continue to move slowly into northeast Oklahoma this afternoon, reaching I-44 early in the evening. Ahead of the front to this point, dew point temperatures are several degrees below those of 24 hours ago across most of the forecast area, while temperatures are running a few degrees above yesterdays levels. The signal for moisture pooling is more pronounced behind the front on observational data and in the latest model data, with the low level moisture increase now expected to be farther north this afternoon and delayed in time. Given the forecast highs and the newest dew point trends, the current heat headline configuration appears sufficient through early evening and will not be changed at this time. Widely scattered thunderstorms also remain possible near the front late afternoon and into the evening, although signals in the CAMs are reduced from data yesterday. The better coverage and better potential remains just north and east of the area into the evening, closer to the upper level support moving through the Central Plains. Downburst potential and marginally severe winds remain possible should any stronger storms develop this afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms expected to develop late tonight/early Monday morning to the west near another upper level disturbance may move eastward into parts of northeast Oklahoma toward daybreak. Overnight lows tonight should be cooler for parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Plenty of uncertainty regarding how Monday will play out as it pertains to the heat situation and additional shower and thunderstorm development. Confidence is fairly high that additional heat headlines will be needed in parts of southeast Oklahoma and probably west central Arkansas, but the confidence is low regarding how far north they will be needed. Given the uncertainty, no headlines will be issued with this package for tomorrow. The expectation is for higher dew points tomorrow in most areas but that increase will be off set by cooler temperatures. Increased cloud cover and potential for afternoon thunderstorms once again will have a noticeable impact on just how cool temperatures are tomorrow. With the front expected to be in southeast Oklahoma tomorrow, that should be the most likely area to see the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening, as well as continued downburst potential. Tomorrow nights lows will again be cooler than what we have been dealing with in this stretch of extreme heat.

The forecast for Tuesday is somewhat uncertain, with the NAM and to a lesser extent, the GFS continuing to show potential for another disturbance moving through the region late Monday night and into early Tuesday along with another round of showers and thunderstorms. This continues to be the outlier, with the bulk of the data pointing toward a return to hot and dry weather areawide. This forecast features a modest modification to the high temperatures and to the POPs, although the latter is left below mentionable levels.

Very hot conditions remain expected to make a solid return Wednesday, but with a westward shift in the upper level high, another front looks to move through the area Thursday and into Friday. Low shower and thunderstorm chances accompany this shift, most likely across northern and eastern parts of the area. The high remains forecast to nudge back east toward next weekend, leading to higher temperatures and dry weather.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Isolated thunderstorms with locally gusty winds will continue through the evening primarily north of Interstate 40. Additional showers may spread into the region late tonight with little to no aviation impact. Frontal zone drifts southward by Monday afternoon and remains a focus for isolated to scattered storms with locally gusty winds. VFR conditions expected to prevail outside of any thunderstorm influences.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 78 96 75 102 / 20 20 10 10 FSM 79 102 76 102 / 10 20 20 10 MLC 78 104 76 105 / 10 30 20 0 BVO 72 94 70 101 / 30 20 10 10 FYV 75 96 72 99 / 20 20 10 10 BYV 75 93 71 97 / 20 20 10 10 MKO 75 97 73 103 / 20 20 20 0 MIO 73 92 71 98 / 20 20 10 10 F10 75 98 72 104 / 20 30 20 0 HHW 76 103 76 103 / 0 20 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-059-068- 069-075-154-172-254-276-376.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058- 060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 119-120-229.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219- 220.