textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 555 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Colder temperatures and strong, gusty northwest winds will follow behind a cold front on Sunday.

- A low threat of severe thunderstorms will exist ahead of the front across western Arkansas Sunday.

- A light accumulation of snow is possible across extreme eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Southerly flow increases Saturday as pressure gradients tighten in advance of the next weather system slated to impact the region on Sunday. This will pull moisture north into the area and help afternoon temperatures climb into the mid-upper 70s. Despite winds gusting up to 25 mph, fire weather potential should remain limited due to RHs in the 30-45% range. Any fire concerns would be maximized west of Hwy 75 in NE OK where humidities will be lowest and recent rains have been lightest. Other than some passing high clouds during the afternoon, a predominantly sunny day is expected areawide.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Amplified troughing works into the central plains Saturday night into Sunday morning with a strong LLJ developing over the FA. As the associated sfc low ejects into KS/NE, MSLP gradients tighten further, resulting in strengthening sfc winds overnight. Gusts during this period are expected to remain between 25 and 35 mph... though some isolated gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible, particularly across the higher terrain of SE OK and NW AR. Meanwhile, a potent cold front will be quickly advancing toward the CWA early in the day Sunday. Timing differences remain among model guidance, but overall, expect the front to swiftly move through E OK and NW AR Sunday morning and afternoon, likely exiting the area by late afternoon.

A tight thermal gradient will be associated with this front and temperatures are likely to fall rapidly behind the boundary, associated with very strong northwesterly winds. Widespread advisory-level wind gusts are likely (40-50 mph) across the region behind the front, lasting into the early evening hours. Isolated gusts could even briefly approach High Wind Warning criteria across NE OK Sunday afternoon, up to 55-60 mph. High temperatures will be very sensitive to the timing of the front, but as it appears now, most locations should at least briefly warm into the upper 60s or 70s (warmest across SE OK). Temps then plummet through the day, into the 30s and 40s by nightfall. While RHs will gradually improve in the post-frontal airmass, such strong winds will tend to increase fire weather potential significantly Sunday afternoon with near-critical to critical fire spread rates forecast, especially along and west of Highway 75 in E OK.

Some sprinkles or light showers will be possible in the warm sector Sunday morning, however, the highest precip potential will occur with the frontal passage. Increasing moisture will foster moderate instability ahead of the front, and a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop by early afternoon. Wind shear will be plenty sufficient to support development of strong to severe thunderstorms as the front pushes through the region during the afternoon/early evening. Damaging wind gusts are likely to be the primary hazard. With that said, thunderstorm chances and associated severe potential for our area will ultimately depend on the exact timing of the FROPA. Some faster solutions would indicate the front clears the CWA by early afternoon, resulting in most or all of the thunder/severe threat remaining to our east. Latest 00z CAMs seem to be trending toward this faster solution, but have left a chance of thunder between 18-00z for now.

Overall, any meaningful rainfall along the front is likely to be restricted primarily to NW AR. Behind the front, wrap around moisture will provide a 20-30% chance for light precip in NE OK and NW AR Sunday evening/early overnight. By this time, temperatures will have cooled significantly and allow for snow to become the dominant P-type. A couple tenths could accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces, particularly in NW AR, but no winter impacts are expected. A hard freeze is likely Sunday night/Monday morning areawide (killing freeze north of I-40).

A cold day is expected Monday in the colder and drier airmass with high temperatures likely struggling to make it out of the 40s (30s NW AR). It will feel especially cold during the morning as wind chills fall into the 10s and single digits near the KS and MO borders. With breezy winds persisting through the day, wind chills likely remain in the 20s and 30s. Despite the colder temperatures, low RH values and breezy conditions will create limited to elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. After another round of freezing temperatures Monday night/Tuesday morning, south winds return on Tuesday, bringing highs back into the 50s and 60s. Strong ridging then develops across the Desert Southwest and expands into the Southern Plains through the remainder of the forecast period, prompting very warm temperatures and dry conditions. By late week, high temperatures in the 80s are likely, with some locations in E OK potentially approaching 90 degrees. At a least limited fire weather threat will tend to persist through next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue into early Sunday with southerly winds steadily increasing today and becoming gusty this afternoon and persisting through tonight. Stratus will spread quickly northward late tonight with MVFR flight impacts at most terminals. Strong wind profiles will support low level wind shear despite the persistent gusty surface conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 78 60 67 23 / 0 0 20 10 FSM 80 57 69 24 / 0 0 80 10 MLC 77 61 70 26 / 0 0 30 10 BVO 78 55 65 19 / 0 0 20 10 FYV 77 57 66 19 / 0 0 90 20 BYV 75 59 65 20 / 0 0 90 20 MKO 77 60 68 24 / 0 0 50 10 MIO 75 57 65 19 / 0 0 60 20 F10 78 62 70 24 / 0 0 20 10 HHW 77 60 74 28 / 0 0 30 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.