textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1110 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Widespread dangerous heat continue through Tuesday, with afternoon heat indices of 105-115 F. Dangerous heat persists for portions of the area through Friday.

- A minor cool down and a chance of showers and storms is expected mid to late week. A more substantial cool down may then occur over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A strong area of high pressure remains overhead today. Like the last few days, models are probably too aggressive with mixing out low level moisture, but even so, a marginal reduction in afternoon dew points is expected. This will be offset by slightly hotter surface conditions. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 90s to low 100s, with heat indices of 105-112 F for most locations. Widespread Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect. No rain, and not even much in the way of clouds, is expected. Overnight will be very mild and quiet, with lows in the 70s to near 80 F.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Dangerous heat continues Tuesday with overall similar conditions. Elected to continue the Extreme Heat Warning for the same areas that have had one the last few days, with a Heat Advisory elsewhere. By later Tuesday model guidance shows a weak shortwave with associated storms rounding the upper level ridge. These may clip the northeastern portion of the forecast area. For now impacts are expected to be minimal.

Heading into the Wednesday through Friday period, the upper level ridge will slightly weaken along with a subtle shift westward. This will allow weak shortwaves to pass through the region. A shallow weak cold front will also stall near the area during this period. Increasing rain chances will result, mostly 10-30 percent, but locally a bit higher for portions of far northeast OK and northwest AR. These storms could produce gusty winds along with locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures are expected to drop slightly, with highs in the 90s. The corresponding increase in dew points will keep heat indices elevated, and may require the continuation of daily heat products for some areas.

Ensemble guidance is honing in on a more robust cold front Friday into Saturday. There is not currently much of a precipitation signal with it, but it does look notably cooler behind it. Temperatures may drop below normal for the first time in a while with highs in the 80s and low 90s. As this is still multiple days away, some adjustments to the forecast are expected in the days ahead.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions along with passing high clouds are forecast for the CWA through the TAF period. Winds remain south to southwest as well through the period, with the exception of KFSM where a more variable wind is forecast tonight/Tuesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 81 103 82 99 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 79 103 81 98 / 0 0 0 20 MLC 79 101 79 100 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 78 101 78 97 / 0 0 0 20 FYV 77 98 77 93 / 0 0 20 30 BYV 77 99 76 91 / 0 10 40 40 MKO 77 100 79 98 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 78 99 78 94 / 0 0 20 30 F10 77 102 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 76 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-063-068- 069-073-075-172-276-376.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-063- 068-069-073-075-172-276-376.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062- 064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-354.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ055>062-064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 119-120-229.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-119-120-229.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219- 220.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129- 219-220.