textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 602 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Well above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather will continue on Thursday.

- Rain chances increase beginning early Friday morning through much of Saturday.

- The potential for an impactful storm system early next week continues to increase, but specifics remain uncertain.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft continues across the region tonight ahead of a broad western CONUS trough. At the surface, a relatively tight pressure gradient will keep southerly winds elevated around 10 mph overnight. Mid and high level clouds will begin to increase from south to north through the overnight period and through the morning Thursday. With steady low-level moisture advection in place, cannot completely rule out some patchy low- stratus formation toward daybreak Thursday, especially across portions of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Between the persistent breeze and increasing cloud cover, overnight lows will remain quite mild, settling in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

During the daytime Thursday, mid and high level clouds will continue to spread into the area from the south as the moisture- rich shortwave trough moves across northwest Mexico. Despite the increasing high clouds, dry weather will prevail and temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 80s, roughly 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Finally, southerly winds wont be quite as breezy Thursday as surface low pressure slides across the Great Lakes Region and eases the pressure gradient locally. Wind speeds/gusts are expected to be light enough that fire weather concerns remain minimal.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Moisture advection increases Thursday night as an initial shortwave trough ejects from northern Mexico into the Southern Plains. The NBM brings a sharp gradient of PoPs (20-80%), mostly confined to the northwest quadrant of the CWA by early Friday morning. Consensus in model data have slowed the eastern progress of the rain, keeping the majority of far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas practically rain-free through much of the day Friday. Rain chances will gradually become more widespread and are still expected to peak overnight Friday night into Saturday afternoon (PoPs 40-60%) as synoptic lift spreads over the CWA ahead of the slowly advancing mid-level wave. As the shortwave trough axis finally passes east of the area Saturday afternoon, rain chances will steadily end west-to-east. Ensemble and deterministic guidance both show very limited instability, which should keep thunder chances low through this particular storm event. Rainfall totals will stay generally light, ranging from a few hundredths of an inch to around a quarter of an inch. However, a few isolated areas may have slightly higher totals, closer to half an inch, especially north of I-44 and west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma.

A brief break in rain chances looks probable on Sunday as the shortwave lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes, resulting in dry and mild weather. Focus then turns to a significantly deeper trough/cut-off low that will dig across the western and central CONUS Monday through Wednesday. Overall, there is good agreement in models in showing impactful weather resulting from this system. Global deterministic models alongside AI/machine-learning suites depict strong run-to-run consistency on a potent cold front pushing through the Southern Plains, but continue to differ on the exact timing on its passage. While timing and spatial details still carry high ensemble spread, higher rain and storm chances (NBM PoPs 50-70%) are expected to precede the boundary on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a noticeable post-frontal cool down toward more seasonal values (highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s) by next Wednesday. Continue to check back for updates as forecast specifics are refined.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail, with increasing cloudiness, through the period. Rain looks to hold off until just beyond the scope of this forecast into Friday morning. Winds will be lighter today compared to yesterday.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 85 62 76 57 / 0 10 40 30 FSM 86 61 78 59 / 0 0 0 20 MLC 83 61 74 57 / 10 10 10 30 BVO 84 57 76 52 / 0 10 40 30 FYV 83 56 77 53 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 82 59 77 59 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 84 61 75 57 / 0 0 10 20 MIO 82 60 77 57 / 0 0 10 10 F10 84 61 75 57 / 0 10 30 30 HHW 83 63 75 59 / 10 0 10 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.