textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms through Monday morning. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns.

- A few storms could become marginally severe overnight into Monday morning. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts, but tornado threat is non-zero.

- Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines likely.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The main concern through the short term will be for a zone of heavy to potentially very heavy rainfall along with severe weather potential setting up across portions of northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas through the overnight period into Monday morning. A deep, moist environment in in place over the region with precipitable water values near the climatological max for this time of year. Current analysis shows a surface low over far southeast Colorado which will track eastward overnight into southern Kansas. A pseudo warm front is noted in the theta-e analysis, draped across northeast Oklahoma generally along a line from Tulsa to Fort Smith. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for continued thunderstorm development through the overnight hours as strong moisture transport on the nose of a modestly strong low level jet streams over the boundary.

Multiple rounds of storms and back building of storms seem likely to set up along and north of this boundary as it slowly lifts northeastward. Additional ascent at the base of the upper trough slowly exiting the area will also overlap, leading to renewed thunderstorm development likely lasting into mid morning Monday. Moderate instability along with the other features mentioned will generate very efficient rainfall rates over the area. Training of storms could lead to localized rainfall totals of 4 to 6 plus inches in a narrow zone near the OK/KS/MO/AR borders by sunrise Monday. Thus the Flood Watch has been extended in time to cover this scenario. In addition to the flooding concern, strong low level shear, combined with the moderate instability will also favor some strong to severe storms with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes all possible through the overnight period. Storms should eventually merge into a cluster, as a cold pool develops, and surge southeastward Monday morning more into northwest Arkansas with a continued heavy rain and severe threat. As the low level jet weakens and the upper trough moves further away from the local region, any remaining storms should dissipate by late morning or early afternoon Monday.

The rest of the day Monday will see upper ridging building into the area behind the exiting upper low. As skies clear during the afternoon, temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to near 90. That combined with very high dewpoints in the mid 70s, owing to all the recent rainfall, will push heat index values in excess of 100 degrees Monday afternoon for many locations. Western Arkansas areas could see lingering cloud cover, left over from the morning MCS, well into the afternoon. This should take the edge off the heat some for those locations. Gusty southerly winds will also be likely through the afternoon as the surface low remains nearby.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A couple of hot and very humid days will be in store through the middle part of the week as the upper ridge continues to build over the region. There is a signal that a few storms will develop across central Kansas Monday evening and try to track to far northern portions of the forecast area by Tuesday morning, while weakening. Thinking right now will keep mentionable PoPs north of the CWA as the building ridge should quickly suppress any convection the further south it gets. This will continue to be monitored and updated as needed in subsequent updates. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the region and high dewpoints owing to the recent rainfall leading to heat indices around or in excess of 105 degrees. Heat headlines will be likely during this time for at least part of the area.

The pattern turns a little more unsettled again heading into the latter half of the week and the weekend as persistent troughing develops over the Central and Northern Plains. This will suppress the ridge to the south across Texas with much of Oklahoma and Arkansas sandwiched between the two. Various shortwaves moving through the larger scale trough will likely push a series of frontal boundaries into the region, beginning Thursday, bringing increasing rain and storm chances along with taking the edge off of temperatures a bit for several days. Guidance continues to suggest a potential stronger push of Canadian air is possible by late weekend into early the next week which could bring some unseasonably cool temps to the region if that happens.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Another pretty complicated forecast with low cigs and storm chances mingled in there. The focus will be on NE OK and far NW AR sites initially, so VCTS and TEMPO mentions were included in those TAFs with convection nearby. Eventually, a complex of storms is expected to form and drop south across W AR, impacting all of those TAF sites, including KFSM, into Monday morning. Storm activity should end by midday Monday at all sites with no additional activity expected. Low clouds will become more widespread aft 09Z, mainly in the MVFR range, but some IFR is possible, especially with storms. Cigs should trend upward by midday and especially into the afternoon, with a trend toward VFR. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter thru the end of the forecast.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 89 77 91 77 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 91 76 93 75 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 90 78 91 77 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 88 76 91 77 / 30 0 0 0 FYV 86 75 88 75 / 60 0 0 0 BYV 85 73 89 73 / 80 0 0 0 MKO 89 75 90 75 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 87 75 90 75 / 80 10 0 0 F10 89 75 90 75 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 90 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ055>058-060>063- 067>070-154-172-254-272-354.

AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-119- 120-219-220.