textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Temperatures near seasonal averages into the upcoming weekend, then begin to warm into early next week. - A weak upper-level disturbance and a cold front will bring shower chances to the area on Thursday.

- Pleasant and largely dry conditions persist Friday and through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Through the overnight hours tonight, expect pleasant conditions with temperatures dropping into the 40s areawide. A few isolated patches of fog will be possible, especially in the normally favored locations and sheltered valleys. Otherwise, relatively dry surface air will limit more widespread fog development. Winds will remain light through the overnight period.

A compact mid level wave currently tracking east through Colorado will continue east southeastward into the Ozarks Region, while weakening, by late in the day Thursday evening. This will bring increasing cloud cover and rain chances to the area during the afternoon hours. Better rain chances will reside across east central Oklahoma with lesser chances extending into portions of far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Moisture return ahead of this system is pretty modest which will limit overall rain amounts. Instability is also expected to be very limited. Therefore, have left out mention of thunder, though an isolated rumble of thunder or two is not out of the question across eastern Oklahoma. Overall coverage and intensity of showers will diminish with southeastward progression into the evening hours. Rain amounts will likely range from one tenth to one quarter inch for the most part. An isolated location could pick up near one half inch across east central Oklahoma where showers will be heaviest.

Near or just below normal temperatures will be common under the increasing cloud cover across eastern Oklahoma, while highs will likely climb above normal to around 70 across the southern and eastern parts of the forecast area where clouds will stay more scattered through much of the daylight hours.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The passing wave will force another frontal boundary through the region Thursday night into Friday bringing reinforcing shot of cooler air into the region for the weekend. Mostly cloudy skies, especially across the north on Friday will likely keep highs in the 50s for many locations. some light drizzle or sprinkles could also be possible during the day Friday before skies begin to clear by mid to late afternoon. Surface high pressure will settle over the region through the weekend leading to some cool nights. Locations across the north could dip into the 30s both Saturday and Sunday morning, with a few of the normally colder spots possibly dropping to near freezing.

Temperatures begin to rebound by late weekend into next week as surface ridging shifts east and southerly flow returns to the region. Highs will climb back above normal for early next week as the forecast will remain dry for now after Thursday. A couple of weak waves will pass near the region and could bring some chances for more showers through next week, but chances are too low to mention at this point.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

High clouds increase from west to east overnight tonight into Thursday as a shortwave moves into the region. During the afternoon/evening hours, mid clouds spread over the CWA with a weak cold front dropping through. Rain chances also develop Thursday afternoon/evening, mainly for parts of eastern Oklahoma. Will continue with Prob30 groups for eastern Oklahoma TAF sites. Light/variable winds remain common into Thursday, and then become west to northerly behind the frontal passage. VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 45 66 45 59 / 0 50 30 0 FSM 46 72 50 66 / 0 0 10 0 MLC 44 73 46 63 / 0 10 40 10 BVO 40 61 39 58 / 0 50 20 0 FYV 37 70 39 60 / 0 0 20 0 BYV 46 68 46 59 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 44 69 45 61 / 0 20 40 0 MIO 42 64 43 58 / 0 10 10 0 F10 45 70 45 61 / 0 40 60 0 HHW 46 75 52 70 / 0 0 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.