textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Warmer weather returns through Wednesday with a low chance of storms Tuesday and medium chance on Wednesday

- A cooler and more unsettled pattern returns Thursday and Friday, with a low end risk of severe weather and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding

- Additional storm chances develop over the weekend and into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Surface ridging has shifted east of the forecast area this morning and thus a return to southerly flow over the Plains will lead to rising temperatures and increasing humidity this afternoon. Highs will rebound to near normal after a couple of pleasant days below normal across the area. Increasing moisture will push heat indices into the mid to upper 90s for most locations this afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are expected through the day, but a few showers leftover from morning convection across Kansas will affect portions of far northeast Oklahoma over the next couple of hours. Rain will mostly be light and severe weather is not expected with this activity.

Later this afternoon, the leftover outflow/frontal boundary will drift close to the OK/KS border as a shortwave trough tracks across the Great Lakes Region. Forcing along the boundary, along with increasing moisture could lead to a few thunderstorms developing by mid to late afternoon across southern Kansas into far northern Oklahoma. Modest instability and sufficient shear will promote any storms to become strong to marginally severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. Coverage is expected to ne minimal and most will not see a storm this afternoon and evening. Storms should wane near and after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. Much warmer temperatures, mostly in the 70s, expected overnight as southerly winds continue to tick up and dewpoints also increase over the region.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Northwest flow aloft will persist over the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend as persistent troughing is common over southern Canada, while mid level ridging intensifies over the western CONUS. A fairly strong shortwave will eject out of Canada and dive southeastward around the base of the trough into the Great Lakes Region through the day tomorrow. This will foster a response at the surface with a rapidly deepening surface low progged to develop over the Central Plains. The tightening gradient will lead to breezy conditions through much of the day Wednesday, with borderline Wind Advisory criteria across parts of northeast Oklahoma. This will push a frontal boundary southward and near the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon and evening. A robust low level thermal ridge will also develop ahead of the boundary across northern Oklahoma. Thus, Wednesday will be the hottest day of the period, while dewpoints rise into the mid 70s. Heat headlines could be needed as well on Wednesday as heat indices approach 105 plus degrees, though the wind will help alleviate the apparent temperatures somewhat. Will hold off for now and let later shifts evaluate the need for any headlines.

Moisture pooling along the boundary will again lead to potential for scattered thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and evening across southern Kansas into far northern Oklahoma. Latest guidance has trended to hang the boundary mostly north of the forecast area until overnight Wednesday when it begins to slowly sag southward. Thus, better storm chances have been held further north Wednesday evening. Again, a marginal severe and heavy rain threat will be possible with any activity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Better coverage of showers and storms is expected on Thursday as the boundary works through the local region. South of the boundary will see greater severe potential Thursday afternoon. Multiple rounds of storms will also increase the heavy rain threat Thursday as well. More cloud cover and precipitation will bring temperatures back down on Thursday and into the weekend behind the front. The boundary will near the Red River by Friday morning with better storm focus across the south on Friday.

A brief quieter period looks likely Friday afternoon into the first part of the weekend as mid level ridging moves over the region. Still, some scattered thunderstorms will be possible as mesoscale features and leftover outflow boundaries remain in the vicinity. Stronger troughing looks to approach the Southern Plains by Sunday into next week. Another frontal boundary will bring widespread storm potential through the end of the forecast period. A more organized severe and heavy rain threat could evolve during this time as well as better shear sets up over the area. Temperatures will largely remain in check with the active pattern over the area and stronger ridging remaining well west and south of the local region.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period, though a low probability of light fog will exist at KFSM late tonight into early Wed morning. Isolated showers or storms possible through afternoon across far NE OK/NW AR but probability remains less than 20% at any location. Strengthening low level jet overnight will bring LLWS to NE OK, with south winds becoming gusty in most locations mid-morning Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 90 74 93 76 / 10 10 0 20 FSM 91 72 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 90 74 91 77 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 90 72 94 72 / 20 30 0 40 FYV 87 70 89 75 / 10 10 0 20 BYV 85 68 88 72 / 20 0 0 40 MKO 88 72 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 86 70 91 71 / 30 20 0 60 F10 88 72 91 75 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 88 72 90 75 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.