textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 - High rain chances with isolated-scattered thunderstorms tonight and continuing into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary concern.

- After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of the workweek.

- Next storm system and rain chances arrive next Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Area of light to moderate rain with a few embedded thunderstorms continues to expand across eastern OK this evening in response to increased forcing ahead of a compact upper low centered over southeast CO. Fetch of anomalously high moisture continues to stream north, with central TX RAOBS sampling precipitable water values above 90th percentile. In addition, MUCAPE of 500-1000 analyzed through much of SE OK, where efficient rain producing thunderstorm potential will remain highest overnight. The initial rain shield will continue to lift northeast over the next several hours, but additional convection is likely to expand back into primarily southeast OK and northwest AR later tonight into early Monday morning. Heaviest overall rainfall will thus remain focused in that region. For the most part the amounts should stay in the 1-2 inch range, which remains below FFG, however high rain rates could result in at least localized flash flooding. There is also some hints in high-res data of a narrow axis of greater totals in the 3 inch plus range, but no strongly favored location noted at this time.

The upper low will continue to move east into the Central Plains through tonight and eventually become more of an open wave. Mid level dry slot will surge across much of the area this afternoon with the more widespread precip forced off to the east. As the wave passes just north of the forecast area, additional more scattered showers will persist across mainly northeast OK and northwest AR, with at least a few thunderstorms as subtle mid level cooling takes place.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Showers will taper off from the west this evening as the upper wave is absorbed into stronger westerlies and quickly ,moves off to the east. Another shortwave diving into the Great Lakes region Tuesday will force a fairly strong cold front through the area during the day Tuesday, resulting in a period of gusty northwest winds and an eventual return to slightly below normal temperatures through Wed night, with a widespread light freeze expected at that time.

By the weekend the surface high will be off to the east and south winds will increase as a trough deepens in the west. This will bring the next chance of rain and thunderstorms beneath strengthening southwest flow aloft. The evolution of this pattern is quite uncertain beyond that. For right now the forecast will maintain some rain chances into Sunday with a downward trend in temperatures.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Ongoing widespread showers and scattered storms will continue to spread eastward through early morning. The corridor from SE OK through NW AR is expected to experience a longer duration of higher precip coverage lasting well into the day Monday. Further northwest a drying trend is likely with additional scattered showers through the day. Ceilings will trend low VFR to MVFR with the ongoing precip becoming IFR to periodic LIFR through the day. A possible slow improvement in ceilings could be realized by Monday evening as precip ends but confidence is low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 57 51 61 50 / 0 90 50 20 FSM 61 50 61 52 / 0 90 90 30 MLC 63 52 63 49 / 0 100 80 10 BVO 57 47 59 47 / 0 90 60 20 FYV 66 49 59 50 / 0 80 90 40 BYV 63 48 59 52 / 0 70 90 40 MKO 59 51 61 50 / 0 100 70 20 MIO 59 48 59 52 / 0 80 70 40 F10 60 51 61 48 / 0 100 60 10 HHW 64 52 61 49 / 0 100 100 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.