textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Widely scattered storms possible overnight, generally along the Kansas and Missouri borders.

- Hot and humid conditions continue Saturday, with a large area of heat advisory conditions during the afternoon and evening.

- Storm chances trend higher Saturday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Ongoing convection across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri is occurring within a zone of deep isentropic ascent fueled by an increasing low level jet axis nosing into the region. Relatively light westerly to northwesterly flow aloft would suggest that as the cold pool deepens, that a slow southeastward push of convection can be expected through the overnight hours. Storms could eventually make it into parts of far northeastern Oklahoma later tonight and eventually into far northwest Arkansas toward sunrise. Though deep layer shear is not overly impressive, especially farther south into Oklahoma, a few storms could still produce damaging wind gusts if they can become more organized. Otherwise, heavy rainfall and localized flooding potential will be the main concern owing to deep, moist profiles and efficient rainfall processes. Storm motions will also likely lead to some training potential, enhancing the heavy rain threat along the Kansas border. Storms should begin to wane through the morning hours as the low level jet weakens.

Saturday will see another day of hot and humid conditions for most locations. The exception will be those behind the effective frontal boundary leftover from the morning storms, where more morning cloud cover should keep temps slightly cooler than other locations. Moisture pooling along and ahead of the boundary will lead to more heat advisory conditions across portions of northeast Oklahoma and into the Arkansas River Valley of western Arkansas Saturday afternoon. An upper level disturbance dropping southeastward through the Ozarks will interact with the stalled boundary to help focus convective development Saturday afternoon and evening. Initial development is probable across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, with focus likely shifting slowly southward into the nighttime hours. Ample instability and at least modest shear will aid in a marginal severe threat, with damaging winds being the main threat again, though initial cells could pose a hail threat before merging into clusters. Heavy rainfall and flooding will also be a concern again with slower storm motions expected and efficient rainfall production likely.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Clusters of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday evening and into the overnight hours. Most of the activity should slowly shift southward through the overnight period, with any convection generally along and south of I-40 by daybreak Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier conditions will funnel in behind the boundary across the northern half of the forecast area on Sunday. The focus for thunderstorm development by Sunday afternoon will be across southeast Oklahoma along the slowly advancing outflow/frontal boundary.

Upper level ridging will build across the Northern and Central Plains early next week, with easterly flow aloft over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Daily afternoon thunderstorm chances will continue through the first part of the week on the periphery of the building ridge. Temperatures will also stick nearer to seasonal normals through mid week with slightly drier conditions leading to a reprieve from the advisory level heat for a few days. Later in the period, uncertainty builds in the evolution of the upper ridge across the central CONUS. The upper ridge looks to become more elongated and stretched across most of the country, with the axis generally near the Southern Plains region. The result will be dwindling storm chances along with warming temperatures back into the mid to upper 90s by the end of this forecast period. Differences remain in most of the global guidance however, so confidence is low at this point for the end of next week into the weekend.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Much of the day today will see somewhat breezy southwest winds with scattered mid and high clouds. Storms are expected to develop in the afternoon north of I-40 along a boundary, working their way south into the evening. Storms will likely be breezy with gusty erratic winds. They will also produce brief heavy rain and lightning. Visibility reductions may briefly occur in the stronger storms with ceilings coming down to 3-5 kft. Drier conditions will begin to develop Sunday morning near dawn with light northeast winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 96 74 92 72 / 40 40 10 0 FSM 97 75 93 74 / 40 70 20 10 MLC 97 75 93 72 / 10 50 30 30 BVO 93 71 91 69 / 20 20 0 0 FYV 91 70 89 68 / 70 40 10 0 BYV 90 68 88 66 / 60 20 0 0 MKO 95 72 91 71 / 50 60 20 10 MIO 91 70 90 67 / 30 10 0 0 F10 95 72 90 70 / 40 60 20 10 HHW 94 75 91 72 / 0 30 40 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-066-067-070-071-073-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.