textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 456 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 - Cooler and dry Wednesday into Thursday. Low chance of showers returns Thursday night/Friday morning.

- Strong storm system impacts the area Friday night and Saturday, with potential for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, especially across SE OK and W-Central AR.

- Dry and warm weather returns for next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1047 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Overnight showers will exit to the east by early Wednesday morning, with high pressure filling into the region for the remainder of the day. This allows for a seasonably pleasant day with high temperatures in the upper 50s/60s under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies (predominantly high clouds). Winds remain light out of the northeast.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1047 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Wednesday night features low temperatures in the 30s with light winds under high pressure. As the high departs on Thursday, southerly winds will return to the FA and bring temperatures back into the upper 60s/lower 70s across E OK (lower 60s NW AR). A sfc trough and cold front will approach the area late Thursday into Friday. As mid level moisture increases and weak instability develops, some scattered showers will be possible Thursday night and Friday morning... perhaps with a rumble of thunder or two. Rain chances increase further Friday night into Saturday as a potent upper low ejects out of the desert southwest. This will bring a period of wetting rainfall and thunderstorm potential areawide.

Guidance continues to vary with the storm track and northward extent of better moisture (and resultant QPF). For now, the forecast will continue to call for widespread 1-2 inch rain totals, with amounts locally in excess of 3 inches. Southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas are more favored to receive the highest rainfall, and this is where excessive rainfall/flash flood concerns will be focused. Thunderstorm chances will also be the highest across the south, where better instability may reside. A limited severe risk may accompany this activity.

Rain chances depart Saturday night into Sunday morning and mid- upper level ridging strengthens overhead through early next week. This will promote a return to warm and dry conditions through the end of the period. Above average temperatures are favored to continue through the end of the month.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 456 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with light winds becoming easterly and passing high clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 60 39 68 45 / 0 0 0 20 FSM 66 38 67 44 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 65 39 69 48 / 0 0 0 20 BVO 58 32 67 38 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 61 33 63 41 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 58 36 61 41 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 63 40 67 46 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 58 36 62 43 / 0 0 10 10 F10 63 40 70 48 / 0 0 0 20 HHW 67 41 69 50 / 0 0 0 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.