textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered afternoon shower and storm chances continue Tuesday.

- Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal through the work week.

- Storm chances and coverage increase Wednesday as another storm system nears the area. Afternoon storm chances may continue Thursday and Friday as well.

- Hotter and mostly dry conditions return this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The weather Tuesday will be very similar to that seen Monday, with isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially across parts of southeast Oklahoma. Afternoon high temperatures will remain slightly below normal, generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

An easterly wave will drift west Tuesday night and Wednesday as it moves underneath a large upper ridge centered over the upper Midwest. This will result in greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms, initially in northwest Arkansas Tuesday night and then over the entire forecast area Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with relatively slow westward moving storms.

Later in the week, the upper ridge breaks down some and reforms to our southeast, with the easterly wave from Wednesday becoming nearly stationary over west Texas. This leaves our area in deep layered moist southerly flow and remaining susceptible to mainly slow moving diurnal convection each afternoon. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below the seasonal averages during this time frame.

An upper ridge tries to build more strongly into our area later this weekend and especially early next week which will result in drier and warmer conditions. The NBM appears to be continuing with its summer long warm bias beyond 3-4 days, so the most likely scenario will be for temperatures to be only slightly above the seasonal averages this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

No major changes to the forecast reasoning from 06Z. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Removed fog mention at KFYV. Few to sct mid cloud this morning will become sct cu by midday. Rain/storm chances too low to mention in TAFs. Aft 03Z, the effects of an approaching wave will bring increasing mid cloud and a chance for showers to the NW AR TAF sites. PROB30s were maintained from 06Z issuance, but timing adjusted to 06-12Z.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 91 72 90 72 / 10 0 40 10 FSM 93 72 88 71 / 0 20 70 10 MLC 90 70 88 70 / 20 0 50 10 BVO 90 67 89 68 / 0 0 30 10 FYV 90 68 86 66 / 0 20 70 20 BYV 89 68 85 67 / 0 30 80 20 MKO 91 70 87 70 / 10 0 50 10 MIO 91 70 89 69 / 0 0 50 20 F10 88 68 87 68 / 10 0 40 10 HHW 90 69 88 69 / 20 10 40 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.