textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Mostly cloudy conditions are expected today with a few isolated showers or storms mainly south of I-40.

- An unsettled weather pattern is expected starting Thursday and continuing through Sunday. Multiple opportunities for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall are expected.

- Drier weather is expected Monday to Tuesday before rain chances increase mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Satellite imagery shows extensive low clouds across the region today, with model soundings confirming a fairly deep saturated layer up through the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere. Cloudy or mostly cloudy conditions will persist into the afternoon, though some thinning is expected during the afternoon allowing for some periods of sun late in the day.

With that in mind, a deep trough across the northwest USA and corresponding area of surface low pressure in the northern plains will keep southerly flow going through tonight. Isentropic lift has been wringing a few showers out thus far, mainly south of I-40. This will continue the next few hours before shifting east and ending for the forecast area. Given these factors, kept high temperatures on the cooler side of guidance today, mainly in the lower 70s. Overnight lows will be mild, mostly in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The trough currently in the Pacific Northwest will shift southeast Thursday, with lowering heights across the region. Morning clouds may break up a bit sooner (some models like the NAM say otherwise), allowing temperatures to reach the upper 70s Thursday. With increasing upper level diffluence and low level instability, the potential for thunderstorms (including severe) will increase. At this time CAMs are not all that excited due to potential capping and dry air entrainment issues, but the potential certainly is there late Thursday into Friday morning. Storms will first impact northeast OK, shifting into northwest AR and portions of southeast Oklahoma as well. Locally heavy rainfall may occur. In terms of severe weather, given that storms will consolidate into a line, wind is expected to be the main hazard. If any line segments can become favorably oriented (NW-SE) a few QLCS tornadoes may also occur, though this isn't considered likely right now.

Behind the outflow on Friday, skies will clear out with northerly flow developing. High temperatures will remain about the same Friday as cool advection is offset by more abundant sunshine. Temperatures will cool a bit into Saturday morning, however, with a brief drop in low level moisture. Southerly flow returns Saturday during the day with a renewal of warm and moist air advection. This will occur as a Pacific cut off low merges with the upper low that will still be stationary over the Northern Great Plains. This will help increase upper level wind speeds and diffluence. Model guidance is fairly confident in the big picture but is uncertain on the details later Saturday through Sunday. In general the environment will be higher end in terms of convective potential, but it remains uncertain whether there will be sufficient moisture to break the capping inversion. And even if this does happen, whether it will happen in a way to allow for the release of the higher end conditional instability. With that said, Saturday and Sunday will need to be watched closely for significant severe potential with all hazard types on the table.

A cold front Monday morning will bring slightly cooler but much drier air back to the area. This will put a temporary end to the active pattern, but it appears yet another western trough will increase rain and thunder chances into mid week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Low clouds will be the main impact to aviation through this forecast. An upward trend in cigs is expected into the afternoon, though this is occurring slower than forecast at some sites. MVFR or low-end VFR will prevail by the end of the day. A return of lower cigs is expected overnight, with MVFR to IFR expected. Gusty south winds are expected on Thursday, with improvement in cigs expected just beyond the scope of this forecast.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 63 78 63 79 / 10 10 50 40 FSM 61 82 66 81 / 0 10 50 70 MLC 64 79 66 81 / 10 10 40 40 BVO 61 79 60 78 / 10 10 60 30 FYV 58 78 62 76 / 0 10 60 80 BYV 59 78 63 75 / 0 10 50 80 MKO 62 77 64 77 / 0 10 50 60 MIO 62 77 61 75 / 0 10 70 50 F10 63 78 64 79 / 10 10 40 40 HHW 62 78 66 81 / 10 10 30 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.