textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1047 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 - Low to medium rain chances along and ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, mainly along and south of I-40.

- Cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday behind the cold front.

- More substantial storm system impacts the area late this week, with potential for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A cold front remains on track to enter the CWA Tuesday morning, bringing cooler temperatures as well as a period of stronger winds as it moves through, especially across northeast Oklahoma. A fairly sharp temperature gradient is forecast Tuesday afternoon as a result. Max Ts struggle to exceed 60 behind the front, while soaring well into the 70s again across SE OK and W-Central AR. With a tight pressure gradient in the vicinity the boundary, strong winds are expected across the area... especially north of I-44 where north winds gust between 25-35 mph. Dry weather will prevail through the first half of the day, but by mid-late Tuesday afternoon, precip chances will increase along and ahead of the front as an upper wave drifts east into the region.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Low to medium precip chances (20-50%) continue through Tuesday night, particularly along and south of Interstate 40. However, the heavier rainfall is likely to remain east of the FA, and total accumulations across SE OK and W-Central AR should generally remain less than a tenth of an inch. Overnight lows will be warmer across the south (mainly 40s), where cloud cover/ precip will hold on for most of the night... but lows will fall back to near freezing near the OK-KS border.

Sfc high pressure and upper level ridging keeps things quiet Wednesday, with light easterly winds and high temperatures predominantly in the 60s. As the sfc high departs to the east Wednesday night, southerly winds will return to the region, permitting warmer temperatures on Thursday, especially for E OK zones. Sfc troughing will gradually work into the area by Thursday afternoon as another front approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, a potent mid level low is projected to move onshore in California.

There is a low chance of precipitation along the front late Thursday night into Friday, but QPF likely remains light during this period. PoPs then increase substantially Friday night as isentropic ascent intensifies ahead of the aforementioned mid level low. This storm system will then sweep through the region on Saturday with additional rain potential. Depending on northward extent of better moisture and instability, a few rumbles of thunder may occur Friday night. Low thunder chances are also noted across at least SE OK Saturday as the upper level system moves through, though ensemble/cluster analysis currently suggests the better instability will remain south of the forecast area. Where thunderstorms do occur, strong speed and directional shear may foster a limited severe risk. Additionally, heavy rainfall could become a concern as PWATs approach the daily maximums for this time of year. More detailed information will become available as we draw closer to this weekend. The main takeaway for now is that a notable dose of rain is expected areawide to end the week.

Precip exits to the east Sunday morning. Low-impact weather is expected early next week as heights rise. High temperatures will become increasingly tempered by clouds and rainfall Friday and Saturday, though still near to above average for mid February. Warmer and dry conditions are then forecast early next week, with highs recovering into the upper 60s/ lower 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. LLWS will continue at all sites through early TUesday morning with increasing high and mid clouds overnight. Cold front timing similar to earlier forecast reaching NE OK skies 16-17z and finally clearing KFSM just after 00z. Winds behind front will become northerly with gusts in the 20-25 knot range mainly across northeast OK through afternoon. Areas of light rain will impact areas south of I-40 late in the period with PROB30 carried at KMLC/KFSM, but at this time conditions are expected to remain VFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 53 66 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 53 77 46 65 / 0 30 30 0 MLC 58 76 41 66 / 0 30 30 0 BVO 46 62 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 54 74 38 63 / 0 20 20 0 BYV 55 72 38 58 / 0 20 10 0 MKO 54 74 41 63 / 0 20 10 0 MIO 52 63 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 F10 56 72 40 63 / 0 20 10 0 HHW 58 74 49 65 / 0 30 60 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.