textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected through the week with a Heat Advisory for portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Thursday and Friday.

- Rain and storm chances return to the northern half of the area through Friday night, with the best chances this evening into Friday morning. Marginal risk of severe weather late this afternoon through tonight.

- Drier conditions expected this weekend into next week with dangerous heat remaining a concern for the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Another hot day is in store with heat indices up to 109 degrees across much of northeast Oklahoma and into the Arkansas River Valley. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas until 8 PM this evening. Morning convection has left a weak MCV and outflow boundary across N-Central Oklahoma which may produce isolated thunderstorms this afternoon for areas along and north of Hwy 412. A few isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across the higher terrain of SE OK and W AR. Higher thunderstorm chances are then forecast this evening and through tonight across far NE OK and NW AR as the LLJ strengthens.

As is typical for this time of year, deep inverted-V sounding profiles will be present today and storms may produce downbursts and strong wind gusts. By late afternoon into tonight, higher shear will be in place across northern portions of the area and permit better storm organization. Thus, a marginal risk for severe weather is forecast across NE OK and NW AR. Damaging winds will be the primary concern through this evening, with large hail becoming a greater threat late this evening and tonight. Highest storm chances (and associated severe potential) are expected to remain in the vicinity of Hwy 412 and north for much of the evening and tonight.

As the LLJ strengthens overnight, latest CAMs suggest SE KS into far NE OK and NW AR will be the favored zone for storm redevelopment and potential training through the early morning hours. Where this occurs, repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may provide at least low potential for excessive rainfall and localized flash flooding. However, the recent dry spell should help limit impacts overall.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Showers and storms will probably be ongoing Friday morning for portions of NE OK and NW AR. Isolated to scattered redevelopment will be possible across much of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon and evening, with a preference for SE OK and W AR. Again, a few strong to marginally severe wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon and evening. Low shower and thunderstorm chances may linger across far E OK and NW AR Friday night into early Saturday as another disturbance passes by, but mainly influences areas to our east. Then, for the most part, dry conditions are likely this weekend and into next week as weak- moderate ridging sits overhead.

Temperatures Friday will be influenced significantly by convective evolution tonight into the morning hours. Higher coverage of clouds and precipitation may limit heating over parts of NE OK and NW AR Friday. But for locations unaffected by cloud cover, strong afternoon heating is still expected with temperatures warming into the upper 90s. Thus, heat indices greater than 105 degrees will again be possible for parts of E OK and the AR River Valley, but confidence in exactly where this occurs is lower than previous days. For now, have issued a Heat Advisory for portions of E OK south of Tulsa, as well as in the AR River Valley, where clouds may not be as expansive. However, changes to the configuration may be required in future forecast updates based on convective trends. Additional heat headlines then appear probable this weekend and into early next week as high temperatures remain within a few degrees of 100 and humidity remains elevated.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Few to broken mid and high clouds once again are expected to remain common across the CWA through the TAF period. Thunderstorm chances develop this afternoon and continue into Friday for parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will continue Prob30 groups for timing of greater potential. Within any convection, gusty to strong winds, brief heavy rains, and MVFR conditions could be possible. Winds through the period are forecast to be mainly southerly, with a period of variable/easterly winds tonight for northwest Arkansas. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 78 96 76 101 / 30 20 20 0 FSM 78 99 75 99 / 10 30 30 10 MLC 78 99 76 99 / 0 20 20 0 BVO 72 96 71 101 / 40 40 20 0 FYV 74 94 72 96 / 20 30 30 10 BYV 75 92 72 95 / 30 40 30 10 MKO 76 97 73 98 / 20 20 30 0 MIO 73 93 72 97 / 50 50 20 0 F10 76 99 74 100 / 20 20 20 0 HHW 77 98 76 96 / 0 10 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062-064>068- 070-071-073-074-154-176-254-272-354.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ064>066-070- 071-073-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ129-219-220.