textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - An unsettled weather pattern with multiple opportunities for thunderstorms, along with some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall potential through mid next week.

- A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Warm and breezy conditions will continue Monday. A low chance of showers and storms will remain across far SE OK into west central AR associated with the weak wave currently moving east across central TX. The sharpening dryline west of the local area will become a focus for late afternoon storm development, however both confidence and expected coverage of any storms both remain very low. Any storms that do develop will be within a favorable environment for severe weather with these downstream conditions extending into eastern OK through the late evening. A low chance of storms will be retained for eastern OK to account for this potential but again any coverage is expected to be very low.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Storm chances increase Tuesday as forcing increases across the dryline by afternoon and storms expand into NE OK by late afternoon or evening. Ample shear and instability will support a severe weather risk with all modes of hazards of possible. There does remain some timing uncertainty with a later storm development possible, however the idea of an increasing severe weather risk Tuesday evening remains. The trailing influence of the passing wave along with the sfc boundary moving into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday may be sufficient for storms to either persist through Tuesday night and/or redevelop early in the day Wednesday. This evolution uncertainty will largely impact the degree of instability which can develop through the day and the resultant severe weather extent through Wednesday. Widespread heavy rains are unlikely, but localized swaths of heavier totals are likely Tuesday through Wednesday.

Thursday continues to be seen as a lull in storm potential with Friday trending toward an increasing severe weather especially across NE OK. Various guidance solutions have a corridor of strongly sheared and unstable conditions along and east of the dryline by Friday afternoon with favorable mid and upper jet dynamics overspreading the region by afternoon. Details will vary with updated forecasts but the trend in guidance further reinforced by machine learning output does increase confidence in the potential for higher end severe weather in or near the forecast area on Friday.

Cold front remains timed for Friday night into Saturday and may mark another uptick in storm coverage before cooler and more stable air overspreads the region by next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

BKN to OVC MVFR ceilings will persist this morning across all sites, perhaps briefly falling to near IFR category across SE OK, including KMLC. By late morning into the afternoon, low clouds are expected to erode from west to east, with a return to VFR across E OK this afternoon. Low clouds will likely be more stubborn across AR sites, but several hours of VFR remain possible this evening before low clouds are forecast to redevelop into tonight. There is a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly in E OK, but probability remains too low to include in TAF at this time. Sfc winds remain breezy out of the south through the forecast period, with gusts 20-30 kts. The LLJ strengthens again tonight with LLWS developing areawide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 84 70 84 66 / 10 20 30 70 FSM 83 68 84 67 / 20 10 20 40 MLC 83 69 81 66 / 10 20 20 60 BVO 84 67 84 63 / 10 20 30 70 FYV 80 66 81 64 / 10 10 20 50 BYV 80 68 82 66 / 10 10 20 50 MKO 83 68 81 64 / 10 10 20 70 MIO 81 69 82 65 / 10 10 30 70 F10 84 69 81 64 / 10 20 30 70 HHW 80 66 80 65 / 20 10 20 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.