textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Very hot conditions are expected through Tuesday, with afternoon heat indices of 105-115 for much of the area.

- A weak cold front will bring some heat relief Wednesday and Thursday, but the heat will return Friday.

- Mainly dry weather is expected until at least Thursday, with low rain chances developing toward the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Limited relief from the widespread extreme heat seen earlier this afternoon is expected tonight with overnight lows remaining on the high side once again. A few spots should remain above 80 degrees given current temp and dew point readings and the 24 hour trends. The warm overnight temperatures set the stage for another around of extreme heat on Tuesday. Expect air temperatures to be a few degrees higher than those seen today given the position of the upper level high and warmer 850 temps ahead of a weak front set to move through later in the day. NBM temperatures have continued to be a couple of degrees too warm, and as such, this forecast reflects highs consistent with the short term blended guidance. Highs should still largely be in the triple digits areawide, and with continued high dew points, will lead to widespread heat index values from 110 to 115. Given what happened today, Cherokee and northern Sequoyah counties have been added to the Extreme Heat Warning tomorrow. Some consideration was given to adding Benton and Carroll as well and would not be surprised if they need to be added at some point Tuesday. In addition to the heat, some CAMs do show some isolated shower/thunderstorm development across parts of northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas along the aforementioned front. Have increased POPs from the NBM initialization across these areas to just below mentionable levels.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The weak front should move through the entire area by Wednesday morning, with a noticeable decrease in low level moisture, north to northeast winds and a modest cooldown. High temperatures on Wednesday should still be near to above normal in most spots but should feel nicer given the lower humidity and certainly compared to expectations on Tuesday. The influence of the front will linger into Thursday, but southerly winds and a return to heat and humidity is expected Friday. Highs on Friday have been adjusted downward a couple of degrees from the NBM initialization using the blended traditional MOS guidance given the aforementioned overforecasting by the NBM in similar scenarios. An expected increase in cloud cover should also serve as a limiting factor regarding how high temperatures could be. A low chance of shower and thunderstorms across parts of northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas will develop Thursday night into Friday in response to disturbances moving southeast along the edge of the upper high. This potential should expand southward Friday night into Saturday, especially across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The increased cloud cover and precipitation on Saturday both make the high temperature forecast for Saturday somewhat uncertain, with a decent gradient in temperatures from west to east likely across the area. The upper level high should remain stretched across the region Sunday and into early next week, leading to an additional stretch of well above normal temperatures and extreme heat. Confidence is medium to high that the NBM high temperatures are too high during this period, but a day or two with triple digit highs and certainly additional heat headlines should be expected.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 102 76 93 73 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 104 79 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 103 80 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 101 73 91 70 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 99 74 91 69 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 99 71 89 68 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 103 77 94 73 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 98 72 90 70 / 10 0 0 0 F10 102 76 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 102 79 97 74 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ069.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272- 276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.