textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1057 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 - Warm weather today, then slightly cooler Tuesday to Wednesday behind a weak cold front.

- Low rain chances Tuesday across SE OK into west- central AR, then a slight chance for mixed rain and snow northeast OK Wednesday morning.

- Much warmer and drier weather resumes Thursday into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Temperatures will warm appreciably again today, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. High clouds will increase into the afternoon, but is not expected to keep temperatures down too much from their potential. A weak front will begin to move through the area overnight, with a pretty large variance in low temperatures as a result. Lows will range from the low 30s in the north to mid 40s in the south.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Somewhat cooler air will spill into the area Tuesday behind the cold front, but there is significant model spread in terms of observed temperatures. The main uncertainties relate to the spatial extent of low clouds as well as how long they may stick around. The most likely outcome is probably a blend of the spread, with some low clouds for part of the day, breaking apart in the afternoon. In this case, high temperatures would drop about 10 degrees from today. Model guidance continues to indicate just enough lift and moisture return for some light showers along the front as it passes through southeast OK and west-central AR. Total accumulation will be minimal.

A quick moving shortwave will then move through Wednesday morning. Guidance is mostly consistent in showing a brief narrow corridor where a few showers could develop. The best chance appears to be across central to eastern OK, particularly the far NW tip of the forecast area. The air will be marginally cold enough that rain could mix with or change to snow briefly. As it looks now, the worst case scenario appears to be a brief dusting, with no accumulation being the most likely outcome.

Strong ridging will then develop across the Plains for the late week period and into the weekend. Temperatures will respond, with highs in the 50s-60s Thursday onwards. A few spots could even hit 70 F on Friday. No additional rainfall will occur until beyond the 7 day forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening with only some increasing high clouds over the region. Southerly to southwesterly winds around 10 knots will be common through the afternoon before going generally light and variable overnight. Increasing moisture ahead of a cold front tonight will bring in some low clouds across SE OK into W AR with some MVFR cigs possible by early tomorrow morning, especially for Arkansas sites. Some vsby restrictions could also develop, though probs are too low to mention at this time. A few showers could also develop in these areas, but chances are also too low to mention for any terminals currently. The front moves through tomorrow morning, bringing a shift to northwesterly winds. Low clouds could hang around through the morning, especially for NW AR sites, while more low cigs could filter in behind the front across NE OK toward the end of the period.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 60 35 50 29 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 59 38 53 29 / 0 20 20 0 MLC 63 41 55 31 / 0 20 0 0 BVO 56 29 49 26 / 0 0 0 20 FYV 58 36 47 25 / 0 20 10 0 BYV 57 37 47 26 / 0 10 10 0 MKO 59 37 52 29 / 0 10 0 10 MIO 54 32 45 25 / 0 0 0 10 F10 64 37 54 30 / 0 10 0 10 HHW 60 45 59 32 / 0 30 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.