textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Low storm chances continue Sunday afternoon south of Interstate 44. Showers and isolated storms linger Sunday night into Monday across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

- A brief period of cooler weather is expected through early next week before temperatures warm again above average.

- Low thunderstorm chances return toward the end of next week along with very hot and humid weather.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The ongoing storm complex will continue to move southeast across far southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. In its wake expect lower dewpoints overnight and relatively cooler temperatures than we have seen the past couple of nights. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late Sunday morning into the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes along and ahead of weak front. A shortwave trough will sharpen across the Midwest into the Ozarks helping add support for the activity. Marginal instability and weak wind shear will keep the severe weather threat low. Afternoon temperatures in the wake of the front will warm into the mid 80s to near 90 with lower 90s closer to the Red River.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The shortwave trough remains in place across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through Monday. A low chance of showers and isolated storms will continue especially across the terrain of northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. Most areas look to remain dry as winds gradually veer to the east and southeast during this time. Temperatures will remain close to normal on monday with little overall change in heights and little temperature advection. The pattern begins to return to more summer-like Tuesday and beyond as the western U.S. ridge builds eastward into the southern Plains. Rising heights and increasing temperatures aloft should make diurnal storms more isolated by Tuesday. Surface temperatures warm through the week, peaking on Thursday. The combination of very hot temperatures and high humidity will once again bring excessive heat into the conversation by the middle of the week. Medium range ensembles agree that the ridge will be suppressed some as we move toward next weekend with a return of low shower and storm chances across northern portions of the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Lingering rain with embedded thunder will continue to push south and east through the overnight hours. Gusty winds will also accompany this activity for a couple more hours across NW AR sites. Outside of any convective influences, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period as skies slowly scatter out form north to south during the day Sunday. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible again Sunday, mainly across SE OK, but should mostly be south of any TAF sites, so have left out of mention for now. Winds will generally remain light, varying in direction from south to north and then mostly calm after sunset Sunday evening.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 88 72 91 72 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 91 73 93 73 / 40 20 20 0 MLC 92 72 93 70 / 40 20 0 0 BVO 88 69 89 68 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 86 68 88 68 / 30 10 20 0 BYV 85 68 87 66 / 30 10 20 0 MKO 88 71 90 71 / 30 0 0 0 MIO 87 69 89 68 / 20 0 0 0 F10 89 70 91 70 / 30 0 0 0 HHW 92 73 93 72 / 40 20 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.