textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Low shower and storm chances Sunday and Sunday night. Limited severe risk Sunday evening.

- A higher risk of storms and severe weather Monday and Tuesday with locally heavy rainfall also a possibility.

- Cooler weather returns by Wednesday with continued low rain chances through the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Light showers continue from Okmulgee into Latimer county associated with the MCV moving out of east-central Oklahoma. This feature is expected to be east of the area by this evening. The low level jet is expected to crank up again this evening with the axis centered over northeast Oklahoma which will keep winds locally breezy overnight and continue to increase low level moisture with the onset of low clouds by the end of the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast period for all sites with predominantly mid and high cloud over the region. Isolated to scattered showers with will continue across far E OK and NW AR this morning. While lightning activity has been minimal over the past few hours, low thunderstorm potential will continue across NW AR this morning. Precip will tend to weaken by late morning and is expected to end completely by this afternoon, with dry conditions through the end of the forecast period. A weak signal for low cloud development remains through this morning, particularly across NW AR sites, but ceilings are expected to remain VFR at this time. Strong south winds will continue areawide through today and tonight, with gusts in excess of 25 kts possible this afternoon. LLWS develops again by this evening and through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites this evening and overnight tonight with SCT-BKN mid/high-level clouds. Latest guidance continues to show a deck of low/mid-level stratus advecting northward from northeast TX into eastern OK and western AR around or just before sunrise Sunday. Added prevailing MVFR cigs at KMLC, KTUL, and KRVS, and a TEMPO group at KBVO from about 12Z through 18Z before cigs break apart and lift to VFR levels. Went ahead and removed MVFR TEMPO groups at the AR sites for now, as low clouds should remain SCT or bases above 3000 feet, but forecast confidence is not very high and MVFR cigs may need to be added back at a later time. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across southeast OK by mid-late morning and persist into the afternoon they spread northeastward through the daytime. Kept any mention of rain/thunderstorms out of the TAFs for now, as probabilities are at or less than 20 percent at this time. Strong south winds will continue areawide through tonight, with gusts exceeding 20 knots at times overnight. LLWS develops again early this evening and will continue through daybreak Sunday. Surface winds strengthen further by mid-morning Sunday, with widespread frequent gusts 25-30 knots through the afternoon.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 73 88 73 87 / 0 10 40 40 FSM 70 89 72 89 / 0 20 40 40 MLC 73 88 74 87 / 0 10 30 40 BVO 71 88 71 88 / 0 10 40 30 FYV 69 85 71 85 / 0 10 40 40 BYV 68 85 71 86 / 0 10 30 40 MKO 71 87 72 86 / 0 10 40 40 MIO 71 86 72 87 / 0 10 40 40 F10 72 87 73 87 / 0 10 30 40 HHW 71 86 73 86 / 10 20 40 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.