textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Headline worthy heat continues through Thursday, with afternoon heat indices of 105-115F. Heat headlines may be needed for parts of the area Friday as well.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in the forecast from this afternoon through Friday, especially across northern and eastern portions of the area. Storms this afternoon and evening could drop locally heavy rainfall.

- A cool front will bring more pleasant weather for the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

H5-H25 ridge remains centered today just to our west over the southern Rockies and High Plains. A weak wave is in the RAP/HRRR analysis over western KS, likely from previous convection. A frontal boundary in association with a strong upper low over the Northeast is draped from the Southeast back to central AR and then northeast OK where it becomes more stationary. Heat index readings as of noon are already meeting advisory criteria with the higher dewpoints in the area in the vicinity of the front. The going heat headlines for today will be carried forward with no changes.

The latest model data suggests we should expect to see scattered afternoon showers and storms in the vicinity of the frontal zone, lingering into the evening. Slow-moving storms in the high PWAT environment could drop pockets of locally heavy rainfall as hinted in the 1-2" spots in the HRRR QPF data. Models now suggest more of a lull in the activity during the overnight, unlike the data showed yesterday. Data is showing more development across KS instead, possibly from the western KS wave. This activity will probably try to work its way southeast down into the region Thursday morning.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Scattered higher based showers and storms dropping southeast from KS Thursday morning will spread across portions of northeast OK and northwest AR. Broken mid and high level clouds for much of the day across the region should begin to scatter out from west to east during the afternoon, allowing temperatures to quickly rebound. With forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s and the high dewpoints in place in the vicinity of the stalled front, forecast heat indices are again expected to reach advisory levels over much of eastern OK and west-central AR. A few locations could get close to warning levels, but will let the next shift iron those details out especially given uncertainties with cloud cover. Expect more scattered showers and storms in the vicinity of the stalled front over far eastern OK/western AR, which will be oriented more south to north by this time as the ridge aloft to our west holds strong and may even strengthen a bit with some subtle height rises indicated in the data.

A shortwave trough/PV max noted in RAP analysis and WV imagery over CA and the Great Basin is expected to top the ridge and then drop southeast over the Plains Thursday night through Friday night, strengthening as it heads equatorward. The latest CAMs show a large MCS organizing with the system over the central Plains Thursday night, with some of this activity possibly dropping down into northeast OK by Friday morning. The surface cool front is expected to push south into the region Friday afternoon, with at least a few storms likely to focus along the boundary into the evening as it pushes south. With the front not arriving until later in the day, forecast highs are again expected to climb to around triple digits across eastern OK and west- central AR. Another round of heat headlines will probably be needed for Friday as well, but that should be it for this stretch.

Relatively cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the front for the weekend. Below average temps for the first of August and lower humidity will make for ideal conditions for outdoor activities this weekend. Surface ridging is still in place into Monday before south winds and higher dewpoints make a return by midweek.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Scattered convection ongoing is forecast into mid evening with a weakening trend from the loss of daytime heating. Thus, will continue with Prob30 groups for northwest Arkansas through 03z. Otherwise, few to broken mid and high clouds are anticipated tonight and Thursday over the CWA as an additional weak disturbance in Kansas drops southeast into the region. Small chances for showers/storms develop late tonight into Thursday morning across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas as the disturbance enters the CWA. However, the greater potential for convection is forecast for Thursday afternoon again over far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will carry Prob30 groups for these additional storm chances Thursday afternoon. Winds through the period are expected to be variable to a more south- southeasterly direction. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are anticipated through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 78 97 79 99 / 20 20 30 30 FSM 77 95 77 99 / 30 30 10 10 MLC 79 98 79 101 / 10 10 10 10 BVO 75 96 74 99 / 30 20 40 30 FYV 73 90 73 93 / 30 50 10 20 BYV 72 90 72 93 / 30 50 20 30 MKO 76 95 76 98 / 30 20 10 20 MIO 74 92 75 95 / 20 30 40 30 F10 76 98 76 100 / 10 10 10 20 HHW 77 96 77 98 / 10 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-059-063-068- 069-154-172.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053- 055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053- 055>057-060>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-176-254-272-276-354- 376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ129-219-220- 229.