textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1208 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2025

- Higher grassland fire weather conditions develop Saturday afternoon behind frontal boundary.

- Mild conditions continue into the weekend with much above normal temperatures likely next week.

- Gusty southerly winds into Saturday afternoon and again second half of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday Night) Issued at 1208 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2025

Area of low pressure tracks across the Plains Friday night into Saturday with a frontal boundary dropping southeast toward eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Ahead of the front, greater 3-hr pressure changes over central Oklahoma are expected to move over the CWA along with a continued tighter pressure gradient. In response, breezy to gusty southerly winds continue into Saturday with the stronger gusts within the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas as 35-45Kt low level jet moves overhead. These conditions will help keep temperatures from bottoming out with lows early Saturday morning in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The frontal boundary is forecast to reach northeast Oklahoma late morning Saturday and exit southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early Saturday evening. Ahead of the front, breezy/gusty southerly winds continue with afternoon temperatures forecast to warm into the 60s. Low level moisture should remain mainly south and east of the CWA, which should keep the frontal passage dry. Behind the frontal passage, a transition to northerly winds transporting drier air back into the region will aid in limited to locally elevated fire weather danger Saturday afternoon. Winds should begin to weaken Saturday evening with surface high pressure sliding into the region. Low temperatures Saturday night fall into the 30s and 40s. Along the Kansas border, lows near the freezing mark are forecast, and these are the only freezing temperatures forecast over the next 7-day period.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1208 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2025

Lighter easterly winds are anticipated Sunday while surface high pressure moves through the region before exiting Sunday night. In the wake of the departing surface high, return flow quickly transports moisture back into the region with latest model solutions indicating low level clouds streaming north/northeast over the CWA Sunday night into Monday. How quickly these clouds can exit will help determine high temps Monday. For now, trends highlight the western half of the CWA seeing sun and temperatures in the mid 60s, while clouds hold on over the eastern half of the CWA.

Monday night into Tuesday, there are hints that a speed max/compact impulse could quickly move west to east through the region. Increasing moisture...precipitable water values up around 1 inch...interacting with this feature could create scattered areas of drizzle early Tuesday morning over portions of the CWA. For now will continue with potential for drizzle/sprinkles over far southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. This feature looks to exit by Tuesday afternoon with more scattered cloud cover.

For the second half of next week, southerly flow is progged to become gusty again while an expansive ridge of high pressure sets up over the southern Plains. High temperatures respond by climbing well above seasonal average with high temperatures in the 70s. This could create near to record highs Christmas Day. The next best chance for rain showers could potentially come next weekend depending on the model of choice. Either way, no significant rain is currently forecast through the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with sct-bkn high clouds. South winds will remain gusty through most of the night with strong LLWS, before a weak cold front moves southward through the area Saturday with a shift to lighter west, then north winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 44 63 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 39 67 40 59 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 46 69 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 39 61 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 40 64 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 42 61 35 52 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 43 65 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 38 60 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 F10 45 67 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 43 69 48 57 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.