textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1150 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - A warming trend begins today, as persistent low clouds finally break and skies clear this afternoon.

- Above average temperatures are expected Tuesday to Thursday before another cold front brings below average temps to close out the week.

- Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Skies will finally clear this afternoon for all locations with temperatures warming to near seasonal averages in the mid to upper 40s. The surface ridge axis will shift southeastward by afternoon, allowing a return of light southerly winds which will stay constant or gradually increase overnight with Lee troughing developing over the High Plains. This will keep overnight lows from falling too much tonight. Lows generally in the low to mid 30s are expected, though some more sheltered, generally cooler valley locations will likely dip into the 20s.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The upper air pattern over the next week will lead to mostly a temperature forecast through this forecast period as a series of dry cold fronts pass through the area. The pressure gradient will tighten further on Tuesday leading to breezy southwesterly (downslope) flow spreading over the region. This regime is conducive to a quick warmup over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas for tomorrow. Temperatures will rise into the 60s for most locations under mostly sunny skies. The breezy winds, relatively dry air, and warm temperatures could locally raise some fire weather concerns as we are about two weeks removed from any kind of appreciable rainfall over the area. Leaned on the warmer end of guidance for highs tomorrow as the NBM is generally too low in these quick transition periods. A weak front pushes through the region on Wednesday knocking temps back a bit, though still above average. Temps will rise again on Thursday ahead of a stronger, Arctic front scheduled to arrive on Friday. Guidance has trended warmer with temperatures behind this front as the upper air pattern is not conducive for a significant Arctic intrusion into the Southern Plains. The stronger push of Arctic air appears to stay north and east of the local region. Still, a glancing blow will lead to colder temperatures through the weekend. Given the uncertainty and range of guidance, stuck with the NBM blend for temps during this period.

No precipitation is forecast through the next week with predominately dry northwest flow aloft over the region.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Stratus deck will continue to erode through the afternoon with VFR conditions then expected at all sites through the forecast period. Low chance of fog develop near SE OK / western AR terminals later tonight but confidence is low. Winds increase on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 34 62 43 56 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 31 61 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 33 63 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 29 61 40 56 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 32 58 42 55 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 32 58 44 52 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 32 60 42 57 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 32 58 41 54 / 0 0 0 0 F10 32 62 42 59 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 31 61 40 60 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.