textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered storm Wednesday - Thursday with localized downburst winds possible.

- Heat builds Wednesday into Thursday and heat advisories may be needed.

- Storm chances trend higher Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures likely near to slightly below normal through this same time frame.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The weak frontal zone that currently extends through far SE OK will lift northward through the day Wednesday. Dewpoints will trend higher for most locals by afternoon and heat index values of 100 to 105 will be common. A brief window of heat advisory criteria may develop but confidence is low in both extent and duration at this time. Isolated afternoon storms are likely Wednesday afternoon most anywhere across the forecast area. Coverage likely remains low but will include mentionable precip chances to reflect the potential. Stronger storms will be capable of downburst winds.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Stronger wave moves into central Plains Wednesday night with the low level jet responding with a corridor of high based convection possibly spreading into NE OK late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The veered low level flow and potential for lower dewpoints to mix eastward should result in the hottest temperatures of the week by Thursday afternoon. Heat advisory headlines appear likely at this time. Afternoon storm potential Thursday varies amongst model solutions but a low chance across northern locations appears warranted. This corridor will also be nearer slightly stronger flow so an uptick in severe potential could develop pending storm development.

An MCS is expected to develop Thursday night across the High Plains and spread eastward toward the forecast area Thursday night into early Friday. This scenario carries uncertainties typical with MCS evolution, but the pattern is favorable and higher precip chances will be shown for northern portions of the forecast area.

The pattern evolution over the weekend generally favors building ridging over the western CONUS which then becomes centered over the northern Plains by early next week. This keeps the local region on the periphery of the the upper ridge and allows for daily precip chances with temps near to possibly slightly below normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Few to scattered mid clouds are forecast across the CWA tonight through Wednesday afternoon as a frontal zone makes its way northeast through the region. Isolated areas of reduced visibility remain possible early morning with the greater potential for KFYV. Thus, will continue a tempo group for timing of greater potential. A slight chance of convection is forecast for parts of southeast Oklahoma early morning and then across much of the CWA during the afternoon hours. Due to limited anticipated coverage and impacts to any one terminal, will keep TAFs dry at this time. During the evening hours, as mid clouds dissipate, high clouds are forecast to begin spreading into northeast Oklahoma. Winds through the period start out variable and become south to southwest during the day Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 97 78 99 80 / 20 10 20 20 FSM 96 76 98 79 / 20 10 20 0 MLC 96 78 98 80 / 20 10 10 0 BVO 95 76 97 77 / 0 20 20 20 FYV 92 74 94 76 / 20 10 20 10 BYV 91 72 94 76 / 20 0 20 10 MKO 95 77 97 79 / 20 0 20 0 MIO 93 74 95 77 / 0 10 20 20 F10 96 76 97 78 / 20 0 20 0 HHW 94 76 96 77 / 20 0 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.