textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Shower and storm chances increase west to east overnight for eastern Oklahoma and into Thursday morning for northwest Arkansas.

- Several periods of a heavy rain as well as limited severe weather potential exists this tonight and Thursday. Heavy rain potential tapers off during the day Friday.

- A cold frontal passage overnight Thursday night will cause temperatures to become more fall-like starting Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The first wave of showers and storm is moving off to the northeast tonight. The main wave of showers and storms is taking shape across western and southern Oklahoma currently ahead of a potent upper low tracking into the Southern Plains. A line or broken line of showers and storms will move into eastern Oklahoma during the overnight hours. Increasing low level shear could potentially lead to some stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. An isolated quick tornado cannot be ruled out as well along the leading edge, though that probability is pretty low at this point. The main impact will be heavy rain as record moisture remains in place over much of the region. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be common within any thunderstorms as they moving into eastern Oklahoma early Thursday morning. The complex of storms will shift eastward through the morning, likely while weakening somewhat as the upper low begins lifting northeastward away from the area.

A pronounced dry slot associated with the upper low will move into northeast Oklahoma by afternoon Thursday which will limit much in the way of precipitation from late morning through mid afternoon along the I-44 corridor. Additional shower and storm development is likely from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas during the afternoon Thursday. Again, the main threat will be locally heavy rainfall with a limited severe potential remaining for isolated strong wind gusts. While widespread flooding is not expected, owing to the ongoing drought conditions across the region, some localized areas of flash flooding will be possible within the intense rain rates. Those areas more prone to flooding such as urban or low lying areas will see the most impact from heavy rainfall. Widespread rain totals through Thursday afternoon will be in the 1 to 3 inch range with some localized totals over 3 inches possible mainly across southeast Oklahoma.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Precipitation will be ongoing Thursday evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. As the upper low lift northeastward away from the area, a cold front will be forced southward Thursday evening into Friday. Scattered showers and storms remain possible along the boundary across northeast Oklahoma Thursday evening and then shifting into southeast Oklahoma on Friday and into the weekend. Cooler, more Fall like temperatures will follow in the wake of the boundary on Friday, along with breezy northerly winds adding a little more chill to the air.

The elongated mid level trough axis will linger in the vicinity into Saturday. The result will be continued chances for showers, mainly across southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. Any additional rain should be fairly light by this time. Another weak mid level wave will drop southeastward across eastern Oklahoma on Sunday, bringing another chance for a few showers Sunday morning across southeast Oklahoma, before exiting the area by afternoon. Surface high pressure will settle over the region through the early part of next week with cooler and drier pleasant conditions prevailing for several days to finish out the period.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Periods of showers, with possibly a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, will impact all sites today into tonight. Precipitation chances will likely end at the northeast Oklahoma sites later this evening following the passage of a cold front. MVFR ceilings will prevail for the most part today, with conditions lowering to IFR and possibly LIFR later tonight following the passage of the aforementioned cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 76 63 70 58 / 100 60 10 10 FSM 83 68 79 63 / 90 80 60 40 MLC 81 65 78 61 / 100 60 40 40 BVO 75 59 70 52 / 90 70 10 0 FYV 80 62 74 56 / 90 80 40 30 BYV 82 65 72 57 / 70 80 50 20 MKO 78 64 74 60 / 100 60 30 30 MIO 75 61 70 55 / 100 70 20 0 F10 78 62 73 58 / 100 50 30 20 HHW 82 67 79 64 / 100 90 80 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.