textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Headline-worthy heat is expected to persist through at least Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are expected to close out the week.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again on Tuesday. Storms may produce locally strong wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall.

- Localized fire weather concerns will continue to exist through Wednesday due to the worsening drought.

- Rain/storm chances increase for the second half of the workweek as a front pushes into the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mid/upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains will begin to strengthen this afternoon and into this evening, reaching its peak strength Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As such, models show fairly stout subsidence between 500-250mb, significantly limiting diurnal convection Tuesday as well as maintaining egregiously hot and miserable conditions. At the surface, a weak pseudo-stationary boundary that has been draped in the FA since late Sunday afternoon will washout as it tries to lift northward Tuesday afternoon. Despite the strengthening ridge, there should be enough low/mid-level moisture for a few isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms, mainly focused near the weak boundary as well as higher terrain areas in the afternoon. Though organized severe weather is not expected at this time, inverted-v profiles from forecast CAM soundings suggest storms with stronger updrafts will carry stronger downburst/wind gust potential.

Dangerously hot daytime temperatures and very mild nighttime temperatures will continue through short-term period. The strengthening ridge will cause afternoon ambient temperatures on Tuesday to once again rise into triple digits for most areas. Combined with the humidity, heat indices will average between 105-110 F, with a few locations exceeding 110 F in the afternoon. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for the majority of the FA Tuesday afternoon. Due to lower confidence, opted not to issue an Extreme Heat Warning for now, but this upgrade may be needed for portions of the area (specifically for areas in the Arkansas River Valley and in and around the Tulsa metro) by the next forecast package.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Upper-level heights will peak late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Thus, Wednesday looks to be like another oppressively hot day, with additional heat headlines likely needed for most locations.

Ridging begins to elongate and flatten late Wednesday afternoon and evening as a robust trough swings across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Models and ensembles continue to be in good agreement in pushing a modest cold front into the area, but exact timing and just how far south it is able to push is still a little murky. Regardless, confidence continues to increase regarding the front bringing in widespread cloud coverage and rain chances Wednesday afternoon/evening and lingering into Friday before the front lifts back northward and southerly flow returns. The front is anticipated to stall somewhere near the the I-40 corridor during the daytime Thursday, per latest guidance. This may change. Temperatures are expected to drop closer to seasonal average behind the frontal boundary on Thursday, which should feel drastically more comfortable in comparison to recent days. Out ahead of the front, temperatures will remain unseasonably hot, but cloud cover should keep temperatures from reaching triple digits, at least.

NWP models begin to diverge with solutions by the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. However, there is good consensus that the FA stays on the eastern periphery of the ridge and just on the southern periphery of a longwave trough before ridging builds back in and becomes the more dominate feature again by Sunday. Both GFS and ECMWF try to bring another weak frontal boundary Saturday afternoon/evening, stalling the front near the KS/OK border by Saturday evening, and then lifting it back north on Sunday morning. Needless to say, confidence of this occurring is low at this time, given the inconsistencies in the models recently. Overall, the good news is that the general trend in the long-term seems to be slightly wetter and slightly cooler compared to recent days and weeks.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Convection in vicinity of KFSM will linger for first hour of TAF period before boundary layer stabilizes. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will generally be less than 10kt though some initial erratic gusts remain possible near KFSM for the first hour. Mid-level ridge intensifies through Tuesday afternoon with another round of isolated storms along the periphery with any brief impacts at AR terminals after 19Z. Will let later shifts include Prob30s as confidence increases at any one location.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 102 80 102 81 / 20 10 20 0 FSM 104 75 103 77 / 20 10 20 0 MLC 102 77 103 77 / 20 10 20 0 BVO 102 74 103 75 / 20 10 10 0 FYV 98 71 101 74 / 20 10 20 0 BYV 97 70 100 75 / 20 10 20 0 MKO 103 75 101 75 / 20 10 20 0 MIO 100 75 101 77 / 20 10 20 0 F10 101 76 102 76 / 20 10 20 0 HHW 101 76 100 75 / 20 20 20 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>071- 073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053- 055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-129- 219-220-229.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-129- 219-220-229.