textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- A potent arctic front will push through Friday morning and will bring life threatening cold to the area beginning Friday night, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected Friday through Sunday, bringing climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the entire forecast area.

- Travel is expected to become very difficult to nearly impossible at times.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts will linger for several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Surface analysis from across the country shows the much anticipated Arctic cold front draped across northern/central KS as of this writing. The front will be moving into northeast OK and northwest AR in the next couple of hours. Behind the boundary, temperatures will fall steadily through the overnight hours and continue to fall through the daytime Friday. Because temperatures will not follow the typical diurnal curve, they may need to be adjusted overnight tonight and during the daytime Friday.

From latest model guidance, temperatures should fall below freezing north of I-40 by or just after sunrise and by mid-late afternoon south. The frontal boundary will initially bring in some very dry air near the surface, especially across northeast OK. Hi-res models indicate light precipitation developing through the morning and even into the afternoon from the approaching storm system, mainly across eastern OK. Dewpoint depressions will be quite large across northeast OK through the daytime, greater than 25 degrees in many areas. If precipitation is able to reach the ground, it will be light with little to no accumulations expected. South of I-40, air near the surface will not be quite as dry. Light rain may mix with some sleet during the morning and afternoon from McAlester latitude and southward, with best chances closer to the Red River. Surface temperatures through much of the afternoon should stay above freezing as the precipitation falls, and light rain accumulations are possible.

The frontal boundary will also bring in some gusty northeast winds. Gusts up to 35 mph will be probable initially, especially across much of northeast OK. Winds are expected to be slightly lighter south of I-40. But regardless, these winds will make temperatures feel much colder. Daytime highs Friday will occur before sunrise, with temperatures falling into the 20s north of I-40 by late in the morning. Wind chill values will steadily fall from the teens to the single digits, and even below 0 degrees near the OK/KS border. Needless to say, it is going to be cold and feel colder! Mejia

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Overall, no drastic changes were made from the previous forecast. Latest suite of forecast models continue to suggest there will be two rounds of heavy wintry precipitation between Friday night and Sunday afternoon. Consensus in model data show the first wave will arrive between sunset and midnight Friday evening/night. Despite being less than 24 hours from the onset of the moderate to heavy wintry precipitation, there are still many uncertainties on how temperatures above the inversion will behave, which will ultimately affect precipitation type and amounts. Snow should be the predominate precip type north of I-40. However, forecast soundings from the NAM and GFS have been consistent in showing a pronounced warm nose hovering around the freezing line near the 700mb layer as far north as Tulsa and Fayetteville overnight Friday into Saturday morning. This would suggest a mixture of sleet and snow will fall, at least initially, generally between I-40 and Highway 412. South of I-40, there is a lot more uncertainty. Light to moderate precipitation may already be ongoing by the start of the long-term period as strong moisture and warm air advection are drawn into the region from the south. Precipitation is expected to start off as liquid rain, especially closer to the Red River, but there may be enough dry air aloft for a production of sleet to mix in with the rain by late afternoon or early evening. Once surface temperatures drop below freezing after sunset, a mixture of freezing rain and sleet will prevail. How much freezing rain will fall is still debatable at this time, but the highest chance for ice accumulations up to a couple of tenths of an inch will mostly be across Choctaw and Pushmataha counties and perhaps southern portions of Pittsburg, Latimer, and Le Flore counties.

Moderate to heavy precipitation from the first wave will continue through the overnight hours Friday and will begin to exit to the east of the forecast area sometime late morning Saturday. Snowfall amounts through noon Saturday vary depending on which model you look at, and again, will be mostly confined along and north of I-40. Snow amounts between 4 and 8 inches seems reasonable, locally higher, for this first round of heavy precipitation. Meanwhile, south of I-40, sleet accumulations around 1 to 3 inches is not out of question, but will highly depend how much freezing rain is able to mix in.

A lull in heavy precipitation is still expected to occur Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Both global and hi-res models continue to show a chance of lighter precipitation periodically through the afternoon, with maybe additional light snow and sleet accumulations. If drier air aloft is able to infiltrate during this lull period, there could be a period of freezing drizzle, even north of I-40, before the next heavy round arrives. This will have to be monitored closely over the next 24 hours. The second round of moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to arrive mid to late evening Saturday as a Baja Low moves onshore over northwest Mexico and merges with the main upper level trough over the Great Basin/Dessert Southwest. This second round will persist overnight Saturday and through at least mid to late morning Sunday, perhaps lingering into the afternoon for portions of western AR before shifting east. Additional snowfall amounts between 4 and 8 inches can be expected north of I-40 during this period, with generally 2 to 4 inches of a mix of sleet and snow south.

Total snowfall amounts from Friday night through Sunday afternoon will generally range between 8 and 12 inches near and north of I-40. However, guidance, especially hi-res guidance, has been persistent in showing periodic high snowfall rates (1 to 2 inches an hour) from intense snow bands. Localized snow amounts 15 to 20 inches cannot be ruled out in a few locations, especially if any convective snow bands setup. These amounts do include sleet too, but sleet accumulations should stay below an inch at this time. South of I-40, sleet amounts are expected to overpower any snow accumulations, with up to 4 inches of sleet piling up for a few locations. The best chance of snow south of I-40 will actually occur Sunday morning, once the 850mb front is able to push south across southeast OK. This is where 2 to 3 inches of snow may fall on top of any ice and sleet that has fallen. As for ice amounts, as mentioned above, the highest probabilities for freezing rain will occur in Choctaw and Pushmataha counties, where anywhere from a glaze to a few tenths of an inch will be possible, mainly falling late Friday night into Saturday morning. This could result in localized power outages for this area. This event will have very high impacts for everyone, regardless how much snow, sleet, or ice falls. And they will fall. Travel will be extremely difficult to impossible at times, especially during the heaviest precipitation and before things start to melt. Stay home this weekend, if possible.

Temperatures and especially wind chill temperatures will become dangerous north of I-40 by Friday night and spreading south of I-40 by Saturday morning. Actual high temperatures Saturday and Sunday will mainly be in the teens. Meanwhile, overnight lows will fall to the single digits Friday night for the majority of the area and for all of the area Saturday night. The coldest night is expected to be Sunday night into Monday morning after the storm system departs, winds calm down, and skies begin to clear. Strong radiational cooling will occur at the same time when there is potentially several inches of snow/sleet on the ground. Actual temperatures will fall well below zero for most locations, save near the Red River, Sunday night into Monday morning. Breezy northerly winds Friday night through Sunday evening will contribute to wind chills below zero or in the single digits for much of the forecast area between Saturday morning and Sunday night. Please remember to protect vulnerable people, pets, plants, and pipes over the next several days. Use space heaters and generators properly.

Temperatures will be slow to rise after Monday. Temps are expected to finally rise above freezing (briefly) Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. This likely will not be enough to melt all of the snow and sleet on the ground and any melting that does occur will likely refreeze both Tuesday night and Wednesday night when temperatures fall back below freezing. Any existing snow and sleet on the ground will compact, keeping road conditions less than ideal through the remainder of the workweek. Good news is that no additional precipitation is expected beyond Sunday.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the day today. Conditions will deteriorate this evening and overnight as widespread snow and sleet overspread all sites. Ceilings and visibilities will lower to IFR or lower by late tonight as precipitation rates increase. Mainly snow is expected at the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites, with a snow/sleet mix at KMLC and KFSM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 26 8 11 5 / 30 100 90 100 FSM 34 17 20 12 / 20 100 100 100 MLC 37 15 18 6 / 50 100 100 100 BVO 21 4 10 0 / 30 100 90 90 FYV 27 9 15 5 / 10 100 100 100 BYV 24 8 13 5 / 10 100 100 100 MKO 30 13 16 6 / 30 100 100 100 MIO 22 6 10 4 / 10 100 90 100 F10 31 10 14 5 / 40 100 100 100 HHW 41 20 22 11 / 70 100 100 100

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 3 PM CST Sunday for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 3 PM CST Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.