textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1037 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 - Fire weather concerns will be on the increase through Thursday, due to the warm and windy conditions. The potential will be highest on Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures and low precipitation chances return by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Weak cold front will move into NE OK before midnight and continue eastward across the local region through early day Wednesday. Much drier air will be the most notable difference with the airmass change as temperatures will again reach unseasonably warm levels by Wednesday afternoon. Winds will generally be light through early afternoon before steadily increasing through the afternoon especially across portions of E OK. A window for heightened fire weather concerns will likely develop across NE OK given the very low afternoon humidity levels and the period of gusty winds.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1037 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The energetic zonal flow across the CONUS will feature another strong wave moving across the Plains Wed night through Thursday. Strengthening wind fields will keep winds gusty through Wed night and a brief window for moisture return ahead of the next cold front. Thursday will have worsening fire weather conditions beginning by mid morning as much drier air quickly follows the advancing cold front. The early onset and expanding footprint of higher grassland fire spread rates could create a prolonged day of fire suppression efforts. Winds will turn westerly to northwesterly as a secondary cold front pushes southeastward and this front will mark the arrival of cooler temperatures. The wind shift will also be a focus for any ongoing fire suppression.

Winds relax Thursday night with cooler temperatures area wide on Friday as sfc high pressure builds through the region. The next fast moving wave will move into the Plains Friday night into Saturday with a low chance of light precipitation developing across the local area. A brief rain snow mix may pass near the OK/KS border but no winter impacts are expected at this time. Any rainfall amounts are likely to remain very light. Temperatures near to slightly below normal are likely for the weekend into early next week with a warming trend thereafter. Dry weather is also likely to continue.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered to broken mid and high cloud will continue overnight before skies begin to clear from west to east tomorrow morning. Winds will continue to lessen some overnight and shift to westerly with the passage of a dryline. Southwesterly winds will then pick up again tomorrow afternoon with gusts near 20 knots possible, especially across E OK sites.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 49 78 51 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 72 55 79 54 / 0 10 0 0 MLC 70 52 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 74 43 77 46 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 69 50 77 52 / 0 10 0 0 BYV 68 54 75 55 / 0 10 0 0 MKO 70 50 76 55 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 71 47 74 53 / 0 10 0 0 F10 71 49 78 55 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 69 57 75 58 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OKZ054>071.

AR...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.