textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 - Much warmer and dry weather from Thursday into next week.

- A little more unsettled next week with at least some low rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1032 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Mostly cloudy skies now will gradually clear overnight and lead to another seasonably cool night across the region. The surface high will rapidly drop south through the night as well, with southwesterly winds returning to the region before sunrise Thursday. Noticeably warmer conditions are expected on Thursday as robust downslope flow develops over the Southern Plains through the afternoon hours. Highs will top out mostly in the 60s under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures could hold in the mid to upper 50s across northwest Arkansas, further east of the stronger thermal ridge axis. Low end fire weather concerns could develop for a short time this afternoon with low RH below 30% across parts of eastern Oklahoma and winds gusting near 20mph.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1032 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

The prevailing theme through the rest of the week into the weekend will be much warmer and quiet conditions. A weak frontal boundary will pass through the region Thursday night into Friday, bringing a shift to northwesterly winds. Temperatures won't be affected much with this initial boundary as highs remain well above normal on Friday. Again, low end fire conditions will develop for a short time during the afternoon as the RH drops and winds gust near 20mph. A secondary, glancing blow of cooler air could arrive on Saturday as a stronger surface high drops south out of Canada through the Central Plains. This should knock temps back several degrees on Saturday, though the forecast will still remain above average for this time of year. Southerly winds return by Sunday and temperatures will respond accordingly, jumping into the 70s Sunday and Monday as dry weather persists.

The upper level pattern looks to become a little more unsettled toward the middle part of next week as more westerly to southwesterly flow aloft develops over the Plains. This will lead to an uptick in rain chances beginning Tuesday through the end of the forecast period. Any rain amounts continue to look rather light currently. The increased cloud cover and rain chances will also allow a dip in temperatures, but still near to above normal temps will finish out the period.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, although brief category reductions may occur at a few sites during the first couple of hours of the period. Temp/dew point spreads and visibility trends at mainly BVO and ROG support potential for MVFR visibilities until just after sunrise today, similar to other observation sites across the region. In addition, a region of MVFR ceilings near the OK/AR border is shrinking but may continue to impact for another hour or two. A tempo group may be necessary there. Late morning into early afternoon, gusty west to southwest winds will develop, with gusts near 20 kts possible through the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 64 38 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 63 37 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 67 41 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 62 32 67 28 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 57 36 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 55 37 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 65 37 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 57 34 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 F10 67 40 72 35 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 64 39 74 40 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.