textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Windy with isolated to scattered showers and storms through Monday evening. Limited severe risk.

- Numerous showers and storms Monday night into NE OK spreading southward Tuesday. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

- Cooler temperatures Wednesday with continued low rain chances through the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Strong low level jet has developed across the local region with minimal boundary layer decoupling allowing for periodic strong wind gusts through the early Monday morning hours. Weak disturbance lifting from N TX into W AR along with ongoing strong moist advection and a weakly capped airmass warrants low shower and storm chances through Monday morning primarily far E OK and NW AR. A lull in rain chances appears likely Monday afternoon through Monday evening though strong gusty winds will continue. Focus will become the cold front and storms developing across KS Monday evening and then spreading south into NE OK near or slightly after midnight. Fcst soundings suggest the line of storms will have a time frame to remain severe into NE OK Monday night before encountering stronger inhibition prompting a weakening trend.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Showers and storms will be ongoing early Tuesday with a continued southward advance through the day. An uptick in storm intensity is possible through the day Tuesday before storms clear the forecast area, however the bulk of severe weather is likely to focus south and west of the forecast area by Tuesday evening. Heavy rainfall is possible through the day Tuesday however latest guidance remains progressive with the line of storms which would keep that threat localized.

Showers and storms are likely to persist into the day Wednesday as another round of lift interacts with the elevated frontal zone across the region. Lesser instability will limit the severe weather risk. Noticeably cooler temps follow the front and persist through mid week.

The late week pattern maintains one or more waves passing across the region supporting continued daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly below normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Low clouds will continue to expand in coverage this morning, with MVFR cigs becoming increasingly common across E OK and NW AR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the morning and early afternoon hours across much of the area, particularly in SE OK and NW AR. Thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, but a mix of PROB30 and TEMPO groups have been introduced for this potential. Ceilings are likely to improve back to VFR this afternoon as low clouds scatter out and lift. A lull in precipitation is expected late afternoon through evening before a line of storms moves south into the area from Kansas late overnight. Latest guidance suggest these storms will being to move into NE OK and NW AR sites by 08-12z. Widespread southerly LLWS develops this evening and continues through much of tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 87 67 74 58 / 20 80 70 70 FSM 89 72 85 65 / 30 10 80 60 MLC 88 74 82 62 / 20 20 90 60 BVO 88 61 71 53 / 20 80 50 50 FYV 86 72 81 60 / 30 20 90 70 BYV 85 72 82 59 / 30 20 90 70 MKO 87 70 78 59 / 30 30 90 70 MIO 86 67 74 56 / 30 70 80 60 F10 87 70 78 58 / 20 40 80 70 HHW 87 72 82 65 / 20 10 90 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>064-067-154- 254-354.

AR...None.