textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1157 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- Medium to high (40-80%) precipitation chances will continue through tonight across far northwest Arkansas, with lessening chances elsewhere by this evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall, minor flooding, and isolated flash flooding will be possible, especially in far northwest Arkansas.

- Daily rain and storm chances continue through the weekend and into next week. Locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary concern, which could lead to isolated flash flooding. A limited severe weather threat will also occur.

- Temperatures warming to above normal over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Low level circulation just north of Tulsa will continue to lift north this afternoon and tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop and rotate around this circulation, with the greatest coverage of showers and storms expected across far northwest Arkansas by this evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall may occur, especially in far northwest Arkansas, which may lead to some localized flooding concerns, especially in parts of Carroll county Arkansas.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Precipitation coverage will be much lower, but non zero, in the coming days. With added sunshine, temperatures will also be on the rise, with most locations warming into the upper 80s to near 90 by the weekend. While shower and thunderstorm coverage will be less, instability will be greater, so a conditional risk for severe storms will exist Friday through the weekend, despite marginal wind profiles. The greatest severe weather threat may be late Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday evening as an upper level storm system passes to our north. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms that do occur.

Heading into next week, not much change is expected, with daily low shower and thunderstorm chances. Slow moving storms will continue to result in a locally heavy rainfall potential and a very limited severe weather threat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Low ceilings and scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. In general, these conditions are expected to persist through the day, though some brief periods of higher ceilings may occur at times. The best chance for precipitation will be this afternoon across eastern OK, and this evening in northwest AR. Visibility will continue to drop under any showers. Overnight, low ceilings will redevelop for all terminals and continue into Friday morning. A few additional showers and storms may develop Friday, particularly north of I-40. Wind will mostly be out of the southeast today, switching to light south to southwest on Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 66 85 68 / 80 40 10 40 FSM 82 66 86 68 / 50 30 20 10 MLC 82 66 88 70 / 60 20 10 20 BVO 78 64 84 66 / 90 50 20 50 FYV 80 64 83 65 / 50 40 50 20 BYV 77 64 79 64 / 90 70 60 20 MKO 79 65 85 68 / 70 30 10 30 MIO 79 65 83 66 / 80 50 30 40 F10 80 65 86 68 / 70 20 10 30 HHW 82 66 88 70 / 30 20 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.