textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1135 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- High heat stress conditions continue through the weekend. - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying fuels and periods of gusty winds.

- A weak front will move into the area late Sunday and Monday with isolated to scattered showers and storms. Localized strong downburst winds possible. Any cooling of temperatures will be minor and brief with hot weather returning by mid next week.

- Uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals of slightly cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Near persistent conditions expected through Saturday. Forecast dewpoint trends maintain heat index values more supportive of the ongoing heat advisory. Should higher dewpoints be realized over a larger area then heat warnings may again be posted. Fire weather conditions have become a notable focus as fuels continue to dry. Periodic gusty winds especially across northeast Oklahoma will provide higher fire spread rates through the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Weak cold front is expected to move into NE OK Sunday morning and move slowly southward through the day. The exact location varies amongst guidance but along and north of the boundary expect isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop. Large t/td spreads and deep inverted V profiles favor potential for strong downbursts through Sunday evening. Additional storms developing across the High Plains may spread eastward Sunday night into Monday while weakening. Higher rain chances will favor areas north of Interstate 40 with any meaningful rainfall amounts expected to remain spotty.

Temperatures and heat index values may spike again on Sunday with hot pre frontal temps and pooled moisture along and north of the boundary providing no appreciable heat stress relief. A similar north to south gradient in temperatures is likely on Monday, however overall heat index relief will be minimal.

The boundary loses definition as upper ridging intensifies by Tuesday with very hot temperatures returning area wide Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper ridge may build westward by late week and allow a more substantial trough and associated cold frontal passage by late next week. Uncertainties increase at this time range but a glimmer of hope from the hot and dry weather.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Passing high clouds and few to scattered mid clouds are forecast over the CWA today before high clouds increase tonight in advance of a surface boundary sagging southward. Winds through the period remain southerly for most locations, with the exception of KFSM where more variable winds are anticipated this morning and again overnight tonight. VFR conditions should prevail through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 103 83 103 78 / 0 0 20 20 FSM 102 79 104 76 / 0 0 10 20 MLC 101 80 103 77 / 0 0 10 10 BVO 105 79 102 72 / 0 0 20 30 FYV 100 78 101 76 / 0 0 10 20 BYV 101 78 101 75 / 0 0 10 30 MKO 100 78 104 75 / 0 0 10 20 MIO 100 79 101 73 / 0 0 20 30 F10 101 78 104 75 / 0 0 10 20 HHW 98 78 102 76 / 0 0 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-055>071- 073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119- 120-129-219-220-229.