textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Decaying MCS tracks across E OK / NW AR Tuesday morning with additional afternoon storms possible along the remnant outflow boundary.

- Cooler and drier weather Wednesday

- Moisture return into late week with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning through next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

MCS ongoing across SW KS is expected to continue ESE through the overnight hours generally favoring the instability corridor along the stalled frontal zone which extends through east central OK into NW AR. The stronger flow remain confined west of the region which should limit the strength of the MCS as it continues eastward, however the strong instability corridor downstream of the expected track will support at least a limited risk of severe weather into the morning hours. The convection is likely to be maintained to some degree on the southern flank into the day Tuesday and either renewed intensity or fresh updrafts along the associated outflow will be the focus across SE OK through the day before the effective front pushes south of the forecast area by mid to late afternoon. High temperatures will be impacted by the extent and/or longevity of the more widespread rains but the strong sun angle will allow a quick warm up with period of clearing.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Storm chances likely focus south and west of the region by early Tuesday evening with sfc ridging building into the region and leading to a pleasant Wednesday with cooler and drier conditions. Southerly winds return Thursday and quickly advect deeper moisture into the region ahead of a slow moving weak wave. Expect shower and thunderstorm chances to increase Thursday with a more widespread rain footprint on Friday. The pattern remains unsettled through the weekend into early next week as a slow moving upper low tracking from N Mexico and across the southern Plains. Plentiful moisture and persistent forcing will likely yield several periods of high rain chances over the weekend with locally heavy rainfall possible.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Showers and storms will impact eastern OK the next few hours, possibly spreading into southeast OK and west-central AR later this morning. Brief MVFR ceilings or visibility reductions are expected in heavier storms. Precipitation chances will wind down from north to south during the afternoon. Winds will be mostly light out of the northeast, but some gustiness my occur this afternoon as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 89 69 84 66 / 60 0 0 0 FSM 90 66 85 65 / 40 0 0 0 MLC 92 69 87 67 / 40 0 0 0 BVO 88 66 84 62 / 60 0 0 0 FYV 87 62 83 63 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 83 59 79 60 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 90 67 84 66 / 70 0 0 0 MIO 87 64 82 63 / 20 0 0 0 F10 90 67 84 64 / 60 0 0 0 HHW 91 68 85 69 / 30 10 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.