textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Dangerous heat conditions Saturday and likely continue through early next week.

- Any shower or thunderstorm coverage is likely to remain very low Saturday afternoon.

- Potential minor cool down by mid week but uncertainties remain.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Ridge of high pressure expands across the southern and central Plains today aiding in the return of hot and humid conditions across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees remain forecast which will create heat index values of 105 to 114 degrees across most of the CWA. In response, will add the rest of northwest Arkansas into a Heat Advisory, and upgrade the Arkansas River Valley to a Extreme Heat Warning. The rest of the current headlines for Saturday will ride as is for now.

With the CWA on the eastern periphery of the expanding ridge and the backside of the departing mid level trof from yesterday not quite having cleared the CWA, a slight chance of an afternoon shower/storm exists for parts of northwest Arkansas. Any development should remain isolated and weaken with the loss of daytime heating. Gusty winds and brief heavy rains could occur with the stronger convection.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Main forecast concern through the extended period will be the ridge of high pressure holding across the Plains through the first half of next week. At the same time, the low level thermal ridge is progged to expand eastward as well which will continue a slow warming trend through Tuesday over the CWA. Forecast high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 104 degrees are anticipated each afternoon into Tuesday. Surface low pressure builds lee of the Rocky Mountains Monday allowing for an increase in south/southwesterly winds. This should help to mix dewpoints out a little more compared to today/Sunday. In response, heat index values each afternoon look to reach advisory levels through remaining mostly below warning criteria.

Latest model solutions continue to highlight the ridge retreating westward for the second half of next week. This puts the CWA back on the eastern periphery of the ridge with the potential for a couple shortwaves to slide southeast through the Plains. A weak frontal boundary could sag into the region Wednesday and remain in the area ahead of a more defined shortwave currently progged to move into the region next weekend. Uncertainties remain with where this boundary sets up and the overall timing of these waves. For now will continue with slight chances for convection each afternoon/evening Wednesday to Saturday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. In general, FEW-SCT clouds, with bases near 6-8 kft, will continue. Sustained surface winds will remain out of south to southwest between 5-10 kts, with occasionally higher gusts by mid afternoon Sunday.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 101 80 103 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 79 101 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 79 100 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 77 101 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 76 98 76 99 / 10 10 10 0 MKO 77 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 77 98 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 F10 78 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 76 97 77 99 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-063-068- 069-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-058- 059-063>066-068>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062- 064>067-070-071-154-254-354.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ055>057- 060>062-067.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 119-120-229.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-129- 219-220-229.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219- 220.