textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1029 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 - Cold temperatures and low wind chills continue into Sunday morning. - A sharp warming trend is expected Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase with an approaching system and associated front Tuesday, mainly across SE OK and NW AR.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1029 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Bitter arctic air is now well entrenched across the area. Northerly winds will diminish the next few hours as the surface high moves overhead and then south of the area. Afternoon high temperatures will mostly be in the 20s across the area, with low 30s near the Red River. Cloud cover will increase into this evening as a mid level feature approaches the area. Mid level lapse rates are decent with some lift within the DGZ, but the airmass is fairly dry. A period of flurries is possible during the late evening or overnight hours, but no accumulation is expected. The combination of clouds and some light southwest flow overnight will hold lows up, mainly in the upper teens to low 20s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1029 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

With clearing skies and warming southerly flow, temperatures will jump on Sunday into the mid 40s to low 50s. Even warmer weather is expected Monday with highs in the 50s to low 60s. There is a slight signal for patchy fog Monday morning. Sometimes model guidance underdoes the extent and persistence of fog and low clouds in southerly flow. If this were to happen, temperatures would be cooler than indicated, but for now this is considered a less likely outcome.

A cold front will move through Tuesday. Moisture return will be limited, but most guidance shows some rain rain developing near the front for southeast OK and west-central AR. Total rainfall will mostly be a tenth of an inch or less. A very isolated thunderstorm is possible near the Red River. Somewhat cooler air will move in behind the front. A trailing mid level feature could squeeze out a few showers, possibly mixed with snow, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Kept PoPs low for now (~10%) as confidence is minimal on whether we will actually see any precipitation reach the ground. Upper level ridging will return for the second half of the week with temperatures returning to the 50s and 60s. No additional precipitation is currently anticipated after Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Mid and high clouds will increase this afternoon and into tonight. A chance of light snow or flurries exists at all the terminals beginning after sunset this evening. Will continue leave any mention of precipitation out of the TAFs for now due to no change in flight rules. Wind speeds will remain around or below 5 kts through this afternoon, this evening, and through the overnight period. Winds will turn south/southwesterly by mid morning Sunday, becoming breezy by the tail-end of the TAF period. Latest guidance has a very brief window of low-end VFR or borderline MVFR late in the morning Sunday for the northwest AR sites. Due to low confidence, will leave it out of the forecast at this time.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 20 47 27 58 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 19 45 25 59 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 20 49 30 61 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 18 46 22 54 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 16 42 26 57 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 17 41 28 57 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 19 47 27 61 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 17 42 25 54 / 10 0 0 0 F10 20 49 29 64 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 22 46 28 61 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.