textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 758 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 - Record or near record warmth expected today with limited fire weather concerns.

- Pattern becomes more active this week with rain chances mainly in the east and south Tuesday and again late in the week over the entire area.

- A cold front will bring cooler weather starting Tuesday in the north and areawide by Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 758 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Clear skies and light winds have led to a chilly morning in most places. There is some patchy fog showing up on area observations, so will leave that in the grids for another hour or so. The latest HRRR has slowed the northward progression of higher cloud into the area during the day, suggesting that sunny or mostly sunny skies will prevail. Will thus lean toward the warmer quartile of the guidance spread and CONSMOS for the updated highs, which raised the forecast slightly. Record or near record highs are in play for today in the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly winds will slowly increase during the day, with the stronger winds to the north and west of Tulsa this afternoon. It is here where limited fire weather concerns will exist today.

Lacy

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Clearing skies and light winds setting up for a night of strong radiational cooling. Short-range guidance signal for fog development remains modest, but given above mentioned conditions and current dew points in upper 30s and lower 40s, at least patchy fog seems likely, and will leave in the forecast for much of the area. Temperatures warm quickly Monday under expanding LLTR and while there will be some increase in mainly high clouds, much above normal temps likely with some places nearing record highs. Given the very warm daytime temps and RH eventually falling into the 25-35% range over an increasingly receptive fuel environment, there will be a small uptick in fire weather conditions, however wind speeds do not look concerning.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Increasing clouds and light south winds keep overnight lows very mild for Monday night ahead of an approaching cold front. There arrival of this front Tuesday signals the beginning of a more unsettled pattern during the upcoming week. Higher-res guidance continues to show increasingly gusty winds out of the north behind the front, and also depict a tight gradient in temps near the boundary with much above normal temps continuing to the south, and notably cooler, yet still above normal temps to the north. Forecast for both temps and winds was blended toward cooler and windier guidance from about I-44 north for Tuesday to account for this. Some potential for a few light showers will develop by Tuesday afternoon near and south of the boundary and continue through Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts for the most part will be a tenth of an inch or less.

Front will push through the remainder of the local area by Wednesday resulting in a cooler day area-wide with any precip chance ending. This cool down will be brief as front lifts back north. A more impactful upper level system is then expected by the end of the week with rain chances increasing and becoming more widespread into the weekend. Instability will also increase during that period with a low-end severe weather and heavy rainfall threat possible, before the system moves east by Sunday and dry weather returns.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Some patchy light fog could affect area terminals through about mid morning. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail through the day with winds increasing to around 10 knots out of the south by midday. High clouds will begin to spread from south to north overnight tonight.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 80 53 69 40 / 0 0 10 20 FSM 80 53 78 49 / 0 0 20 50 MLC 83 56 76 46 / 0 0 20 50 BVO 80 45 62 34 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 79 53 74 43 / 0 0 20 40 BYV 77 55 72 44 / 0 0 10 40 MKO 80 55 75 46 / 0 0 20 40 MIO 77 52 66 38 / 0 0 10 10 F10 82 56 75 44 / 0 0 10 40 HHW 78 58 76 54 / 0 0 20 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.