textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- The potential for locally heavy rainfall totals that could lead to rapid onset flash flooding is the main concern through Saturday morning.

- There is a limited severe weather risk this afternoon and evening with any storms that develop.

- A big shift in the weather pattern will bring hot, humid and dry weather starting this weekend on into next week. Heat advisory headlines will likely be needed.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

A boundary extends from an area of low pressure over the TX Panhandle along the OK/KS border region and into the Ozarks of Missouri. The boundary is slowly sagging south and is expected to focus convection over NE OK and SW MO, possibly into far NW AR, this afternoon with increasing coverage into the evening. Some additional warm advection storms are also expected overnight, mainly north of the boundary. Slow-moving and/or training storms in a high PWAT environment will have the potential to drop locally high-end totals somewhere across NE OK and far NW AR through Saturday morning. CAMs suggest potential for isolated 3 to 7 inch amounts. With the soils already fairly saturated, most of this rainfall is likely to become runoff, leading to rapid-onset flash flooding. Some main- stem river flooding is also possible. The going Flood Watch has been extended in time to 7 AM Saturday, and expanded in area to include Benton and Carroll counties in AR near the MO border.

Deep-layer shear is weaker today, so a more organized severe weather event is not expected. However, storms may certainly become severe at least briefly, with the primary threat being locally damaging wind. Marginally severe hail is possible. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and into the early evening hours, dropping off overnight.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

There will be some chance for storms into Saturday morning as whatever is left coming off the High Plains this afternoon comes east. It is possible than an MCV forms and helps to keep the activity going farther east. While the potential for heavy rainfall will be dropping by this time, any additional rains on top of areas hit hard tonight could lead to more flooding. By Saturday afternoon, low pressure developing over northeast CO will draw the boundary north and away from the region, as upper heights rise with the building ridge downstream from the western CONUS trough. This will bring an end to the recent wet regime, and we will make an abrupt shift toward hot, humid and dry weather as we head into next week. While a few spots could get close to advisory criteria along the highway 75 corridor in NE OK as soon as tomorrow afternoon, the afternoon heat index forecast leans toward Monday as the first day of what could be several days in a row of heat headlines next week.

Ensemble means place the H5 ridge center initially over the Mississippi Valley with a shift toward the Ohio Valley as we head deeper into next week. Daily storm chances along the lee trough will stay out west, while moisture will begin to increase from the southeast on the back side of the ridge. Some low chances for mainly afternoon terrain-enduced showers and storms are possible beginning the middle of next week. By next weekend, ensemble data has the ridge retrograding over our area and then to our west with very little in the way of rain chances.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to develop in northeast Oklahoma, shift southeast, and expand across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A complex of storms could anchor across the region late tonight resulting in prolonged disrupted flight conditions, including IFR in the heavy rain, and strong surface winds. Thunderstorms will begin to diminish Saturday morning, with decreasing clouds. VFR conditions are expected across the area Saturday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 90 76 92 79 / 50 70 30 0 FSM 91 77 93 77 / 30 20 10 0 MLC 90 79 92 78 / 30 10 10 0 BVO 90 72 91 75 / 50 80 20 0 FYV 86 73 89 72 / 30 30 20 0 BYV 85 72 88 74 / 40 40 30 0 MKO 88 76 91 76 / 20 30 20 0 MIO 87 72 90 76 / 70 60 30 0 F10 89 76 91 76 / 20 20 20 0 HHW 90 77 92 74 / 20 10 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ055>070-154-254-354.

AR...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ001-002.