textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1118 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Thunderstorm chances continue through tonight and early Sunday.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines on multiple days.

- While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 48 hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Organized cluster of storms continues to move across Osage/Pawnee counties at present and will remain capable of strong downburst winds despite being largely elevated. Additional storms continue to develop across eastern Kansas and dive south as well. The overall evolution of storms overnight remains uncertain, but the cluster moving into NE OK appears aided by rear inflow jet and thus expect continued organization and eastward progression with a few damaging gusts possible across northeast OK, potentially moving into part of northwest AR before weakening.

Some showers may linger into the early part of Sunday, but the overall expectation remains for decreasing clod cover and hot temperatues expanding farther north across eastern OK. Much of the area likely to see HI values at or above 105, and the Heat Advisory will be kept in place. Some data suggests at least a few spots will flirt with 110 for a HI.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Additional heat headlines are likely in the coming days as summer rages on. Strengthening low level flow early next week will also raise fire weather concerns to some degree in areas that miss out on the current rainfall. Configuration of headlines may vary some, but bottom line is another multiple day stretch of heat is coming. Thunderstorm chances may flirt with northern areas during the week but most areas remain dry.

Medium range models continue to show an eventual breakdown of the upper ridge and the passage of a cold front by about next weekend, though exactly when this happens remains in question.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms remain ongoing across portions of NE OK and NW AR. Terminal impacts should be minimal through the morning with KBVO standing the best chance to see some impact from nearby thunder over the next couple hours. Some patchy MVFR and IFR CIGs have also been noted over NE OK this morning, but should be relatively short lived. Otherwise, winds will generally become southerly through the day with VFR conditions prevailing as skies clear through the afternoon. A low chance for isolated thunderstorms exists again this afternoon, mainly across NW AR sites...but chances remain too low to mention in the TAFs at this point.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 100 77 100 78 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 103 76 102 77 / 20 0 10 0 MLC 103 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 99 70 100 72 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 99 72 99 73 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 97 72 98 75 / 30 10 10 0 MKO 100 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 97 73 98 76 / 20 0 0 0 F10 101 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 100 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172- 176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.