textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through Friday for most locations.

- Periods of low rain chances, mainly across northeast Oklahoma, through Saturday morning.

- Another stretch of dangerous heat likely late this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Persistent cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues across Osage/Pawnee counties this morning, with expectation of gradual weakening through the afternoon as they move east. Most rain amount's will by light but isolated amounts of a half inch or so are possible. Lingering cloud cover may keep temps down slightly along OK/KS border and perhaps part of northwest AR this afternoon with rest of the area rebounding into the lower 90s.

A more organized shortwave currently moving across the Central Rockies will slowly move atop the upper ridge tonight through Friday, with an additional round of more organized convection this evening to our north, which potentially could build into parts of northeast OK by late tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1156 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through Friday for most locations.

- Periods of low rain chances, mainly across northeast Oklahoma, through Saturday morning.

- Another stretch of dangerous heat likely late this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The above-mentioned wave will bring the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms during this forecast to at least northern areas Friday morning, with chances lingering through the evening. At the same time, moisture will begin to surge back northward across the local area courtesy of increasing south winds. While overall humidity will be on the rise again, the expectation of more widespread cloud cover casts uncertainty on the temperature forecast for Friday. Any areas that remain significantly cloud free may reach heat advisory levels but given the uncertainty mentioned will hold off on highlights at this time. Once again rainfall will mostly be on the light side, but a few pockets of significant rain can be expected with slow moving storms.

By Saturday the return to heat and humidity will be in full force it appears. Some guidance has trended to developing a corridor of dew points in the upper 70s or even lower 80s extending across NE OK and NW AR associated with weak sfc boundary, which would send HI values back up into the 110-115 range or even a bit higher. An extreme heat warning will likely be necessary for parts of the area during that period.

Upper ridge dominates the weather next week with triple-digit heat likely for at least a few days. Indications are that dew points should come back down anyway.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Scattered to overcast high clouds will continue across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon as a disturbance moves across eastern Kansas. Low shower/storm chances also continue near the Oklahoma/Kansas border with KBVO having the greater potential over the next couple of hours. This evening into tonight, mostly clear to scattered high clouds are forecast to remain common before low level moisture begins to lift back into the region late tonight. Within the moisture return, scattered to broken low to mid level clouds are forecast into Friday morning. Will add Tempo groups to KMLC and KFSM for the potential for broken MVFR ceilings. A mid level shortwave is progged to move into the region Friday morning and will carry a Prob30 group for KBVO. Winds through the period vary between northeast and east into this evening, and then between east and south tonight into Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 93 77 93 81 / 10 0 20 30 FSM 94 75 93 79 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 95 77 94 80 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 91 73 90 78 / 40 0 30 40 FYV 91 71 89 76 / 0 0 20 20 BYV 87 69 89 75 / 0 10 20 20 MKO 92 74 92 78 / 0 0 10 10 MIO 90 72 88 77 / 20 0 20 40 F10 92 74 93 78 / 0 0 10 10 HHW 94 76 92 77 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.