textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 615 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Moderate flooding continues for the Neosho River near Commerce.

- Low rain/storm chances return to the forecast Tuesday and linger into Wednesday, mainly south of I-40.

- An unsettled weather pattern is expected starting Thursday and continuing into the upcoming weekend. Multiple opportunities for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows dry mid-level northwest flow overspreading the Plains, downstream from a synoptic ridge axis that is straddled over the Great Basin/Rockies. A subtle shortwave trough is noted over from southern CA and into northwest Mexico. Latest short-term guidance is in good agreement that this shortwave trough will move across central/northern TX and into southern OK beginning late tonight and into Tuesday morning. Low-level moisture will surge northward this evening and overnight tonight from TX into OK, ahead of the approaching weak wave. This will really help draw-in mid/high level clouds over much of the CWA by daybreak Tuesday. Scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop upstream along and just ahead of the trough axis overnight tonight, moving into southeastern OK by the tail-end of the short- term period. Although a few showers are possible near the Red River before sunrise, the majority of precipitation looks to hold off until after sunrise and at the start of the long-term period.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms should be ongoing and in the process of moving into southeast OK at the start of the long-term period as the subtle wave approaches from the southwest. Low to medium (20-50%) precipitation chances will spread northward some through the daytime, with majority of the rain remaining south of I-40, though a few spotty showers may extend as far north as Highway 412 during the daytime. Latest guidance continues to show very limited instability associated with this wave and thunder chances may be confined and limited to along or even south of the Red River. Will keep the mention of thunder in across far southeast OK for now. Low (20-30%) precipitation chances will linger across southeast OK and west-central AR Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Overall, precipitation amounts will stay light through Wednesday, with only a few hundredths to around a tenth of an inch of rain across portions of far southeast OK expected.

A vigorous mid/upper-level low will move onshore over the West Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As the trough progresses eastward, height falls will overspread the Plains by Thursday morning. A Pacific cold front is still on track to move across the North/Central Plains during the daytime Thursday, with a dryline that will extend from central KS and into western/west- central OK by the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in the vicinity of the front and dryline Thursday afternoon, though this remains uncertainty on how all of this will evolve. If storms are able to develop and sustain themselves off and ahead of the dryline, the storms will be capable of becoming severe as they move toward eastern OK. Storms are expected to cluster and become more linear in nature Thursday evening/night and into Friday morning along and ahead of the frontal boundary, with the storms pushing south and eastward through the night. Severe thunderstorm chances will linger and shift across the southern and eastern CWA into Friday as the front stalls in the vicinity. Additionally, heavy rainfall and flooding potential will also increase Thursday night and into Friday with this storm system. The front remains in the area into Saturday as well, with severe and flooding potential likely remaining possible as well. Better details to come in future updates. Despite precipitation chances and a frontal boundary pushing through later this week, temperatures stay around to above seasonal average through the long-term period.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions will persist through this evening and tonight for all sites. Low clouds will begin to expand north and east Tuesday morning, with MVFR to IFR cigs expanding across E OK late in the TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers will also be possible Tuesday morning and afternoon, with highest potential across SE OK. Additionally, guidance indicates vsbys will fall over time Tuesday afternoon, particularly across SE OK. South winds decrease overnight before becoming breezy again mid morning and afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 52 71 55 74 / 0 10 10 10 FSM 49 74 55 76 / 0 20 20 20 MLC 51 67 55 75 / 10 40 20 20 BVO 49 73 52 74 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 49 74 52 73 / 0 10 10 20 BYV 51 73 53 73 / 0 10 10 10 MKO 50 68 54 73 / 0 20 20 20 MIO 51 71 55 72 / 0 10 0 10 F10 50 67 54 73 / 10 30 20 20 HHW 51 63 54 73 / 10 50 30 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.