textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1233 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 - Patchy fog possible across portions of NE OK and NW AR through early morning.

- An unsettled weather pattern with multiple opportunities for thunderstorms, along with some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall potential, begins this weekend and continues at least through the middle of next week.

- A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Short-term model data indicates possibility of spotty showers and storms will continue into the evening across portions of NE OK as warm advection occurs atop the western flank of the cooler outflow. This activity should fade after midnight. An MCV, also a product of the MCS earlier, will continue east into NW AR. Due to cool outflow and additional cooling as we head into nighttime, additional development of showers and storms with this feature is not expected.

Many sites across NE OK and NW AR where the cooler outflow is in place are reporting at or near 100 percent RH this evening. If there is enough break in the clouds through early morning, some patchy fog could develop.

The front/outflow will lift north of the region tomorrow. South winds will return and may be a little gusty, especially to the north and west of Tulsa, by afternoon. CAMs have spotty showers and some storms popping up during the afternoon, especially west. They also show lots of cloud cover. Will lean toward cooler CONSMOS for highs as the warm model blend (NBM) did not verify well today across the north.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The beginning of a period of unsettled weather begins late Saturday night with increasing rain/storm chances from the west. A subtle wave/mid level jet streak embedded within strengthening southwest flow aloft is expected to bring a band of showers and some storms across the region Sunday. This signal has been consistent in the global models over multiple days. The timing of this activity will probably limit severe potential, though some uptick in intensity is possible during the afternoon over far SE OK into NW AR. Redevelopment of storms to the west in the afternoon is uncertain. Will lean once again toward the cooler CONSMOS for highs Sunday with cloud cover concerns. While the environment would support severe weather on Monday, storm coverage is uncertain in the wake of the Sunday wave and with focusing boundaries well displaced to the west.

A strong upper low is diving south over the Pacific currently and will then evolve into a strong and more progressive shortwave trough over the Southwest by early next week and then eject into the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, in what looks like a couple of pieces. The initial piece of energy is expected to eject farther to the north of the region, but the global models suggest that the dryline will mix farther east and could focus storms closer to the forecast area. Strong shear and higher instability would support a higher-end severe weather threat with any storms that develop. By Wednesday, the second, trailing piece of energy is expected to track across the south-central CONUS with some data showing a cold front pushing east into the region. Storm coverage is expected to be greatest by this time, with similar higher-end severe weather potential.

There should be at least a brief period of more tranquil weather Thursday. The models are hinting at a stronger front arriving by the following weekend, with another round of storms.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Precipitation has concluded across the region with mid and high clouds persisting. Fog development will be possible overnight into Saturday morning, especially across NE OK and in areas which received the most rainfall Friday. TEMPO groups were included for several sites between 09-13z, but an earlier start cannot be ruled out and amendments may be required. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon for much of the area, with the relative highest chances occurring across NE OK. Any location impacted by showers or thunderstorms may experience reduced ceilings and visibility. Precip chances dwindle by this evening with mid and high cloud persisting through the end of the period. Light easterly/variable winds expected through the overnight hours, becoming breezy out of the south during the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 80 65 75 67 / 40 60 100 10 FSM 83 65 77 66 / 20 20 80 50 MLC 80 66 75 67 / 30 50 90 40 BVO 79 64 75 63 / 50 60 100 10 FYV 79 64 74 64 / 30 20 90 40 BYV 79 63 77 66 / 30 10 80 40 MKO 80 65 74 66 / 20 40 90 20 MIO 78 64 73 66 / 30 40 90 20 F10 79 65 74 66 / 30 60 100 20 HHW 79 65 75 65 / 20 30 90 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.