textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 847 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Areas of fog likely this morning, some dense fog possible.

- Increasing rain chances tonight and continuing into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary concern.

- After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions

UPDATE

Issued at 847 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Areas of dense fog continue to impact the region this morning, and the Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded to include additional counties and southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to better match latest surface observations and satellite data. Have also extended the Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM this morning as it appears fog and low clouds will be slow to lift. An additional extension cannot be ruled out. With this in mind, also opted to lower high temperatures by several degrees with the expectation that cloud cover will be slow to erode similar to yesterday.

Eventually, an approaching weather system (discussed below) should strengthen low level winds and at least partially clear out the clouds, mainly in central to southeast Oklahoma. In these areas, temperatures should still manage to climb into the lower- mid 60s. Elsewhere, cloud cover is likely to hang on for awhile and significantly reduce the amount of sfc heating. This leads to temps struggling to climb out of the 50s for much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will need to keep a close eye on trends in these areas though, as high temperatures may still be overdone.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1048 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Widespread stratus remains stubborn over northwest AR and a large portion of northeast OK, and hasn't shown much sign of erosion. High- res model guidance continues to struggle handling this scenario, and with surface high anchored over the forecast area tonight and fairly deep inversion up to about 850mb noted on 00z sounding from KSGF, a more pessimistic forecast of cloud cover will be made through tonight. This also lends uncertainty to fog potential, though still would expect further reductions to vis across parts of northwest AR, where several stations reporting 3-5sm. Area most susceptible to more widespread dense fog will be outside of the stratus deck, but has not happened yet.

Any fog or low clouds will likely be slow to break up Sunday until a little stronger low level flow becomes established. Those areas that are able to clear should warm into the low-mid 60s, but more persistent clouds would hold them down considerably. It's that time of year.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1048 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Upper low in the Southwest is forecast to continue lifting northeast into the Central Plains by Sunday night into Monday. In response, deep moisture will surge northward across much of the Southern Plains with development of widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms as forcing begins to spread over increasingly moist airmass. Given forecast precipitable water values above 95th percentile by early Monday morning, any thunderstorms will be efficient rainfall producers. Stronger wind fields also arriving could aid in storm organization, however the greatest instability will likely focus south of the Red River, thus the severe weather threat will be limited to mainly southeast OK and perhaps west central AR. An additional surge of precip during the day Monday corresponds with arrival of strong upper jet streak, again with instability mainly elevated and confined to areas south of I-40. Rainfall amounts still look on the order of 1 to 2 inches from southeast OK into west central AR, with some higher totals, with lesser amounts to the north and west.

Dry weather returns as the upper low departs Monday with temperatures remaining mild until a stronger cold front pushes through Tuesday. This should bring temperatures back down below normal with a period of gusty northwest winds Tuesday night into Wednesday. This cool down looks short-lived as the surface low quickly moves east by Friday, and moisture begins to return next weekend ahead of another approaching system.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

LIFR/IFR conditions early Sunday morning are forecast to slowly become IFR/MVFR into Sunday afternoon and remain scattered to overcast into Sunday evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase from west to east Sunday evening/night over the CWA with the greater thunder potential along and south of Interstate 40. Will continue with Tempo groups for timing of greater precip potential for all TAF sites. Within the precip and continuing through the end of the TAF period will be the potential for MVFR conditions. Winds through the period start out light/variable and become southerly this afternoon/evening. The exception being KFSM were a more easterly wind is forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 57 52 61 49 / 0 70 70 10 FSM 62 51 60 51 / 0 70 90 40 MLC 64 53 63 49 / 0 90 80 20 BVO 57 47 61 46 / 0 60 70 20 FYV 61 49 59 50 / 0 60 90 40 BYV 61 48 58 51 / 0 40 90 50 MKO 59 51 61 49 / 0 80 80 20 MIO 59 49 60 50 / 0 60 80 40 F10 60 51 62 48 / 0 90 70 10 HHW 63 52 63 49 / 0 90 100 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ049- 053>056-059-064>066-071-073.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-010.