textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Much colder today with wind chills predominantly in the teens and 20s through the day. Low chance of flurries through the afternoon.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive Wednesday, particularly across SE OK and W AR. Rain totals remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and accumulating ice and snow.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

ANother cold day with well below normal temps and wind chills in the teens to 20s is unfolding across the region, especially north of I-40. A weak mid level disturbance will continue to stream mid level cloud cover over the northern half of the forecast area through the daytime hours. This along with persistent cold air advection from northerly winds will keep temperatures largely steady for locations near and north of I-40 this afternoon. Highs will struggle to rise above freezing in these locations. Along with the clouds, isolated snow flurries could also be seen through the afternoon across the north, but a very dry sub cloud layer will likely evaporate most precipitation before reaching the surface. Therefore, no accumulation or impacts are expected. More sunshine across the south will allow temperatures to rise into the 40s. Winds gradually die off later this afternoon and evening, giving way to another cold night with lows in the teens to lower 20s.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

The surface high shifts southeast Tuesday morning and a couple of fairly nice days are in store through the middle part of the week. Widespread sunshine and southerly winds return to the Southern Plains on Tuesday. The response will be warming temperatures back to near or above normal both Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next system. The next cold front will move through the area during the day Wednesday and interact with a plume of tropical moisture streaming northward across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. This should produce enough moisture ahead of the boundary to generate some shower activity Wednesday across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Any amounts look to remain light, generally less than a quarter of an inch in most locations. Thursday should be another nice day with temperatures near normal and dry weather expected.

Big changes are in store for Friday into the weekend as we keep our eye on the potential for winter weather impacts and bitterly cold temperatures across the region. A strong cold front is progged to move through the area on Friday, bringing rapidly falling temperatures and strong northerly winds to the area. At the same time a cut off mid level low is forecast to move into the southwest CONUS with a switch to more westerly or southwesterly flow aloft developing over the Southern Plains. This will allow more mid level moisture to stream atop the Arctic air mass, and with enough lift widespread winter precipitation can be expected beginning during the day Friday and lasting into Saturday. Many uncertainties still exist, with the main one being how well the cut off low will be absorbed into the upper level flow and its track across the region. If the low can get fully absorbed and track through the Southern Plains into Saturday, this would force greater ascent over the region and allow for some heavier bands of precipitation to occur. While the alternative is the low stays relatively cut off and weaker forcing over the area only allows for lighter precipitation and less in the way of snow amounts over much of Oklahoma. The evolution of this low will be the main player in the forecast over the coming days as more details emerge. Nevertheless, expect at least bitterly cold temperatures for a few days with wind chill values likely below zero at times and widespread single digit temperatures. Greater icing potential appears to stay confined to southeast Oklahoma where the deeper cold air will be slower to arrive, but as always, things can shift as it gets closer.

Western CONUS ridging looks to build in again toward the beginning of next week, letting temperatures recover somewhat, though any snowpack could limit the warmup where greater snowfall can occur.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with mid level cloud deck currently spread across the NE OK and W AR terminals decreasing in coverage toward the overnight hours. A few flurries should be expected beneath the mid cloud deck but the potential for category impacts is near zero given current observations. A downward trend in northerly wind speeds and gusts is also expected from north to south across the region, with RVS and MLC the only sites with remaining gusts at the beginning of the period. Winds will shift to a south to southwest direction by tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 30 21 50 32 / 10 0 0 10 FSM 36 19 53 35 / 10 0 0 30 MLC 39 19 52 38 / 10 0 0 40 BVO 29 16 51 26 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 31 16 48 33 / 10 0 0 30 BYV 26 17 49 33 / 10 0 0 20 MKO 31 19 51 35 / 10 0 0 30 MIO 26 18 48 31 / 10 0 0 10 F10 32 20 51 36 / 10 0 0 20 HHW 46 24 53 39 / 0 0 0 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.