textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 112 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- Thunderstorm chances increase again Tonight into Sunday with limited severe potentials and a locally heavy rain threat.

- Temps near to above mid May normals forecast for most of next week with low rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Weak low level high pressure will continue to move across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon. At the same time, nearly zonal mid level flow over running an elevated boundary out west will help develop scattered high clouds into the CWA. Diurnal mid clouds will also remain common over the southern half of the CWA, where the northern portion of the deeper moisture plume resided. Afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected.

Late this afternoon into this evening surface low pressure is anticipated to deepen and spread east/southeast into the Texas Oklahoma Panhandles. In response, the mid to low level boundary is progged to set up northwest to southeast over the far western portion of the CWA. Convection is forecast to develop over the Panhandles and move east/southeast with the increasing low level jet. Majority of this activity looks to remain west/southeast of eastern Oklahoma late this evening. However, there remains some short-term guidance that tries to move it into southeast Oklahoma, where a limited severe potential for locally damaging winds exists.

Current thinking is the greater storm potential is progged to develop along and near the elevated boundary mentioned above around/after 06z Sunday, and drop southeast across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas through Sunday morning. A layer of drier air between the surface and the LCL could provide an increasing severe potential for locally damaging winds with a developing cold pool overnight tonight into Sunday morning. The greater potential for this is along and southwest of a line from Tulsa to Fort Smith. A secondary threat would be for large hail.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

During the day Sunday, ongoing convection during the morning hours is forecast to exit southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas late morning/early afternoon. Additional scattered showers with more limited thunder potential also develops northward from a cold front pushing southward through the CWA Sunday. By mid afternoon, rain chances should begin to weaken from north to south as the 850-700mb frontal boundary begins to slide southward across the CWA. Severe potentials Sunday look to be mainly associated with the stronger morning to early convection along and south Interstate 40 with a continued locally damaging wind threat. A locally heavy rain threat also develops late tonight through the day Sunday, especially as model soundings indicate a more saturated column of air develop during the day Sunday.

A mid/upper level trof axis and associated shortwave moves southeast through the region Sunday night which will aid in rain showers tapering off and exiting overnight Sunday night/early Monday morning. In the wake of the departing wave, cooler conditions from Sunday continue into Monday with surface high pressure filtering through the region. A secondary boundary tries to move into the region Tuesday afternoon/night from another area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes region. Small chances for rain/thunder could develop along and near the boundary, though uncertainty remains with just how far south into the CWA this boundary can travel. Thus, will continue with low PoPs for the northeast corner of the CWA.

Looking into the second half of next week, a ridge of high pressure builds over the southern Plains and then shifts eastward late week. This will allow for the return of breezy to gusty southerly winds and temperatures climbing above the seasonal average for mid May. Low precip chances could again develop at the far end of the forecast period with another disturbance moving out into the Plains along the western side of the high pressure ridge.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions will continue through the evening with a low chance of high based showers into NE OK with no aviation impacts. Showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage overnight and continue through Sunday morning with a gradual focus southward. Higher chances for flight impacts initially across E OK and then heavier rains and storms focusing more toward SE OK into west central AR toward the end of this fcst period. Generally expect VFR conditions outside of thunderstorm influences.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 60 71 50 76 / 60 70 10 0 FSM 62 75 56 79 / 30 70 20 0 MLC 64 72 55 77 / 60 90 20 0 BVO 57 70 44 76 / 50 50 0 0 FYV 60 73 51 76 / 10 60 10 0 BYV 58 71 49 74 / 10 50 10 0 MKO 60 70 52 76 / 60 70 10 0 MIO 58 70 46 75 / 10 50 0 0 F10 61 71 51 75 / 80 90 10 0 HHW 65 76 59 77 / 30 90 50 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.