textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 - An unsettled weather pattern with multiple opportunities for thunderstorms, along with some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall potential through mid next week.

- A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Breezy southerly winds and warming temperatures return this afternoon as the surface front that was in the vicinity yesterday lifts back northward in response to surface pressure falls over the Central Plains. Cloud cover will also be on the increase over the region this afternoon as low level moisture advects back into the area. Much of the day should be dry across the region, though a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop during peak heating...mainly across eastern Oklahoma as a weak disturbance moves quickly through the area. Storms could potentially produce some small hail and gusty winds, but the severe potential is pretty low given relatively weak shear through the afternoon. Any storms should die off fairly quickly toward and after sunset with the loss of instability. A relatively quiet evening and overnight period is in store with rather mild lows in the 60s owing to the increase in moisture and southerly flow across much of the region.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Another weak mid level disturbance and associated jet streak is progged to track northeastward out of the Southwest CONUS tonight within the strengthening southwest flow aloft. This will likely initiate a cluster of thunderstorms across west Texas this evening, growing upscale into an MCS overnight as it tracks northeastward toward eastern Oklahoma Sunday morning. Given the timing of the system, the severe potential is once again rather limited on Sunday. Mainly showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected through the day Sunday. An uptick in intensity is possible into the afternoon across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas as greater instability develops. Redevelopment of storms during the afternoon further west along the dryline is less certain as subtle subsidence in the wake of the exiting wave spreads over the region. Due to widespread rain and cloud cover, have continued trending cooler with highs Sunday. Moving into Monday, a fairly robust severe weather environment will be in place over the region, but warm 850mb temps will likely keep the region capped during the afternoon in the absence of a real forcing mechanism over the Southern Plains. A storm or two could initiate along the dryline to the west, but current potential is low in that scenario and any storms would likely remain west of the local region through Monday evening.

Thunderstorm and thus severe chances increase Tuesday as a stronger mid level shortwave ejects out over the Plains. Guidance has continued to trend further north with the main synoptic forcing more across the Central Plains and Midwest Regions which does make storm initiation and coverage a little less certain still on Tuesday. The dryline is progged to mix further east on Tuesday though, while a secondary jet streak noses into the Southern Plains late Tuesday afternoon. This should be enough to at least see some scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline as 850 temps cool somewhat under influence of the nearby trough. Storms could then move into eastern Oklahoma by late afternoon/early evening with all severe hazards in play. Additional potential exists on Wednesday as a secondary piece of energy pushes into the region and a dryline/frontal boundary mix more into eastern Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. Similar parameters in place would suggest more higher end severe potential with greater confidence in higher storm coverage of any of the previous days.

The passage of the mid level wave finally by Thursday should lead to at least a brief break in the storm chances. Data does continue to indicate that the atmosphere will re load into next weekend as a strong trough digs into the Southwest and thunderstorm/severe chances increase again by Friday into Saturday.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Breezy southerly winds with some patchy low and mid level clouds will continue into the afternoon hours. A few scattered showers and storms will develop over eastern Oklahoma, possibly moving into northwest Arkansas by late afternoon. The main impacts will include brief heavy rain, lightning, and lowered visibility/ceilings. Dry conditions will resume overnight with areas of low level wind shear expected. A line of showers and storms will move in near dawn for eastern Oklahoma, impacting northwest Arkansas by mid morning. Ceilings are expected to come down significantly along with periods of lower visibility due to heavy rain. Southerly winds will gust 20-30 kts for a few hours as storms move through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 65 75 67 85 / 50 90 20 10 FSM 65 79 66 84 / 20 80 60 20 MLC 65 76 67 83 / 50 90 40 10 BVO 61 76 62 85 / 50 100 20 0 FYV 63 75 64 82 / 10 80 60 10 BYV 64 76 65 81 / 10 60 50 10 MKO 64 75 66 83 / 40 90 30 10 MIO 63 73 65 82 / 20 90 30 0 F10 64 76 66 83 / 60 90 20 0 HHW 63 75 64 81 / 30 80 60 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.