textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Another round of potentially severe weather will occur near and south of I-40 Friday afternoon and evening. - Additional storms are expected Saturday and Sunday. Some of these storms could become severe.

- Drier weather is expected Monday to Tuesday before thunderstorm chances increase yet again mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday Night) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to sag southeastward across northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas through the overnight hours into Friday morning. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, though if any surface based convection can develop, a tornado or two remain possible as well. Eventually a stronger southward push of the convective line is expected as a cold front picks up speed and surges southeastward through the region. Storms are training across northeast Oklahoma currently with with areas of one to three inches of rain estimated across portions of Osage County over the last three hours. Therefore, heavy rain and some localized flooding concerns could also develop, especially over more urban and low lying areas more prone to flooding.

Storms will continue into southeastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas by Friday morning with a continued severe risk. The environment ahead of the convective line will still be supportive of all severe hazards, especially if anything becomes more surface based. The outflow boundary/effective cold front will likely slow or stall out through the late morning hours across southeast Oklahoma though some guidance holds the front a little further north, near the Highway 412 corridor. Either way, this will serve as the focus for more development Friday afternoon. Large instability ahead of the boundary along with strong deep layer shear will again support supercell potential initially with more discrete development. All severe hazards will be possible, including large to very large hail and tornadoes. North of the boundary will likely see a nice day with low to very low storm chances. Things should quiet down for a brief lull by later Friday evening into Saturday morning for the local region. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

The unsettled pattern continues into the weekend as persistent westerly to southwesterly flow aloft streams over much of the Southern Plains. The frontal boundary is progged to lift back northward on Saturday as a warm front. This will be the primary focus for storm development once again on Saturday afternoon. Large scale ascent remains subtle at best during the day Saturday, so storm coverage is a little in question as the boundary serves as the primary forcing mechanism. Nevertheless, a a moist/unstable environment, along with ample deep layer shear will support supercell development with any storms that can develop across eastern Oklahoma. Large hail and a few tornadoes would be the main threat initially. Upscale growth is expected to some extent, advancing southeastward along the diffuse warm front/instability zone into southeast Oklahoma with a continued severe threat.

Depending on what happens Saturday into Saturday night, and how widespread convection is across the region, will set the stage for Sunday. A potentially more potent severe setup is possible during this time frame. The warm front is progged to surge northward into Kansas by Sunday afternoon in response to strong surface cyclogenesis over southeast Kansas. At the same time, a compact mid level shortwave will eject out over the Plains in the Sunday afternoon to evening timeframe. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a strong capping inversion over much of the warm sector however, which will inhibit convection through much of the day. As the wave ejects out and modest height falls overspread the dryline in central Oklahoma, at least some isolated convection is expected to develop. Again, an unstable and sheared environment will favor supercell development with very large hail and tornadoes possible. The wave and surface low lift northeast on Monday, bringing a frontal boundary back through the region. Storms could develop along the front Monday afternoon across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas before moving off to the east with the front. The key message is to keep an eye on the weather through the weekend and have ways to receive warning wherever you are. Not everyone will see a storm everyday, but what storms there are will have severe potential.

A lull in activity will follow the frontal passage for Tuesday before moist, southerly flow returns by mid week. Storm chances look to return to the forecast by Wednesday. Temperatures generally stay near to above normal through the period.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Ongoing convection across northeast Oklahoma will continue to spread across the rest of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas overnight tonight into Friday morning. Within the convection, gusty to strong winds and IFR/MVFR conditions are anticipated. Will continue with Tempo groups for timing of greater potential of terminal impacts. Behind the main line of convection, scattered showers will remain for a period while IFR/MVFR ceilings become more widespread. During the day Friday, IFR/MVFR ceilings should begin to lift back to VFR from north to south with VFR reaching KFSM/KMLC late afternoon. Also, during the day, a surface boundary is progged to set up over the CWA with additional afternoon shower/storm chances mainly along and south of it. Thus, will continue afternoon prob30 groups for KMLC/KFSM. By Friday evening, few to scattered mid/high clouds are forecast into the Friday night hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 57 81 63 81 / 10 30 70 30 FSM 60 83 63 82 / 30 20 70 40 MLC 60 83 65 84 / 20 30 60 20 BVO 51 79 58 79 / 0 30 70 40 FYV 55 81 60 79 / 10 20 70 50 BYV 55 78 60 77 / 10 20 60 50 MKO 57 80 62 81 / 10 30 70 40 MIO 54 79 60 77 / 0 20 70 50 F10 57 81 62 83 / 10 40 60 30 HHW 61 81 65 83 / 20 20 60 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.