textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 - An unsettled weather pattern with multiple opportunities for thunderstorms, along with some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall potential through mid next week.

- A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Convection continues to steadily expand through central TX this evening and is forecast to maintain a northeastward expanse aided by an associated mid level wave. Instability does decrease downstream of this convection including across the local forecast area, and the favored scenario remains of widespread light to moderate rain with scattered storms spreading across the local region during the day Sunday. Overall rainfall amounts will likely remain rather light outside of a few localized areas. By afternoon, expect instability to recover on the western periphery of the overturned airmass and a low chance of afternoon and evening storm redevelopment is possible. The favored corridor for this window of opportunity may remain west of the forecast area but it will be a forecast time frame to monitor.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Dryline sharpens west of the forecast area Monday afternoon with an increasingly unstable and sheared environment expanding in a broad fetch including the local region. Most guidance remains reluctant to develop convection along the boundary as an early day wave passage places weak subsidence across the southern extent of the dryline through peak heating. The result is a highly conditional severe weather forecast as overall storm coverage is likely to remain low through Monday evening but any storm which does develop may maintain a severe weather threat into a small portion of eastern Oklahoma.

Similar pattern develops Tuesday afternoon with ample shear and instability in place across the region to support a severe weather threat. Forcing continues to appear more slightly more favorable and scattered storms are forecast Tuesday afternoon through the evening across the forecast area. Current forecasts would favor a window for higher end severe weather at least through the evening.

A more substantial wave passage along with the associated sfc front is expected on Wednesday. This would mark a period of higher storm coverage and again within an environment supportive of severe. While details become less defined at this forecast range, multiple extended guidance suites support a higher severe weather threat for the local region on Wednesday.

A brief lull in storm chances may occur Thursday before storm chances increase again by late week into next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A low level jet will lead to LLWS during the overnight period in advance of showers and storms approaching from the west. Isolated showers may precede greater precipitation coverage, which is forecast to arrive around 10-14z for E OK sites. Showers and storms gradually move east through the morning hours and impact NW AR sites by late morning/early afternoon. Cigs will decrease significantly during this time, with widespread MVFR to IFR conditions expected this morning and afternoon. Brief periods of LIFR conditions will be possible under heavier storms. Precip ends from west to east this afternoon, with dry conditions anticipated by late afternoon/early evening. Ceilings may improve over E OK sites for awhile this evening, but otherwise, MVFR cigs are expected through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be gusty out of the south today, with gusts 20-30 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 77 67 83 70 / 100 20 10 10 FSM 78 66 84 67 / 80 60 30 10 MLC 76 67 83 68 / 90 40 20 10 BVO 77 62 84 65 / 90 20 10 10 FYV 75 63 81 66 / 80 50 20 10 BYV 75 65 81 68 / 80 50 20 10 MKO 75 65 82 67 / 100 30 10 10 MIO 73 65 81 68 / 90 30 10 10 F10 77 66 84 68 / 100 20 10 10 HHW 75 65 79 65 / 80 50 30 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.