textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Hot to very hot conditions will continue for the next week, with the only exceptions being around active thunderstorm activity.

- Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall.

- Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

An upper level shortwave will pass through the area late tonight into mid morning, bringing another round of elevated showers and storms. These storms may result in locally heavy rainfall, but most areas will only see minimal precipitation. In fact, the storms that will impact the area later are already present in Nebraska. CAMs match the radar presentation reasonably well, but are too dry across central Kansas where additional storms have formed. This may matter because the 00z CAMs confine the majority of the storm activity to central Oklahoma. If storms get going further to the east that would be very relevant for the eventual outcome. Suffice it to say, uncertainty is fairly high for exactly where storms move in Saturday morning. Either way, the dry lower boundary layer will favor gusty winds, with a marginal (5 percent) chance for severe winds near stronger storms.

Temperatures will be tricky Saturday considering the timing of the storms. Areas away from convective activity will again be in the upper 90s to near 100 F, but rain cooled areas may see a cooler day in the lower 90s. Will let the day shift decide on any heat products based on how storm activity evolves.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary to the west of the area for the next few days. Temperatures should be mostly in the mid 90s in the north, but warmer in the south near 100 F. Behind some storm activity Monday morning (see below), model guidance rapidly increases temperatures as downslope southwest flow develops. Monday or Tuesday may be the warmest days this week, with some slight cooling mid week in response to a grazing distant trough in the Midwest. Even so, it'll stay plenty hot, with mid 90s to low 100s to close out the week.

The displaced center of high pressure will keep somewhat enhanced mid level flow and periodic shortwaves moving through for the next few days. The current favored timing for the next such shortwave will be later Sunday into Monday morning. Model guidance remains on the weaker side, but there could be a narrow corridor of decent rainfall wherever storms set up. The dry boundary layer will continue to support strong gusty winds as well. The same general pattern will remain in place through next week, but as the ridge gradually flexes into the area shower activity will gradually become more isolated.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Convective evolution is highly uncertain, but convective impacts will be possible at all sites at some point. As of now, the best convective chances look to be from late Saturday morning through the afternoon, but confidence in this timing is low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 97 74 97 77 / 40 10 10 20 FSM 101 74 99 75 / 30 20 20 20 MLC 101 73 103 79 / 30 20 10 0 BVO 96 69 95 71 / 40 10 20 20 FYV 96 68 94 71 / 50 20 20 40 BYV 94 69 92 70 / 50 20 20 60 MKO 97 71 97 74 / 40 10 10 10 MIO 95 70 93 71 / 50 10 20 50 F10 98 72 99 75 / 30 10 10 0 HHW 101 74 102 77 / 20 20 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.