textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Increasing showers and thunderstorm chances tonight through Thursday associated with passing cold front.

- Brief cool down in wake of the front but unseasonably hot temperatures return over the weekend through next week.

- Thunderstorm chances persist Friday into Saturday however confidence is low in exact placement and coverage.

- Overall rainfall amounts will have little to no impact on the widespread ongoing drought conditions and worsening fire weather concerns.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

The main concerns for the next 18 to 24 hours are two-fold, starting with how much shower and thunderstorm coverage will occur from early Thursday morning into the afternoon and also, whether advisory level heat index values will hang around parts of southeast Oklahoma yet another day.

Late this evening, evidence of the outflow from the afternoon and early evening storms that occurred mainly across southern Kansas into northwest and north central Oklahoma remains across northeast Oklahoma, mainly north of Highway 412. The main cold front is well north of the area, stretching across central Kansas. In the past couple of hours, thunderstorm coverage has expanded in between the two boundaries to the north of the Kansas state line in response to a modest mid level disturbance. Through the morning hours, expect a continued expansion in the coverage along with a southward push as the slow-moving cold front approaches from the north and begins to move through the area. A very limited potential for locally strong to severe winds will exist with the strongest storms toward daybreak, along with locally heavy rains given slow storm motions and high precipitable water values. Toward midday, a decrease in coverage should occur, with another uptick in the vicinity of the boundary during the afternoon, likely farther south than the morning activity. The afternoon storms will pose another limited risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts.

Confidence is low regarding the need for a Heat Advisory for parts of southeast Oklahoma tomorrow, with the current forecast featuring heat index values that are very marginal for a small part of areas near the Red River. Above normal temperatures are still likely, however. Will pass along concerns to later shifts but will not issue an advisory with this package.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Late Thursday night and into Friday morning will feature a round of nocturnal showers and thunderstorms, particularly across parts of far eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas due to another mid level disturbance and a weak low level jet oriented toward those areas. Potential for locally heavy rains will continue with precipitable water values around 2 inches persisting. The potential for further development during the day Friday will shift south and east, with a brief dry period by Friday evening. The rainfall and residual cloud cover during the day will keep temperatures much cooler Friday than what the area has experienced of late, although still a couple of degrees above seasonal normal highs.

For the weekend, the upper level ridge looks to expand back over the region, although before it does, there may be one last round of morning showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning due to a Central Plains mid level wave. Forecast highs are somewhat uncertain for Saturday given this potential, with longer lasting rainfall and cloud cover likely to lead to lower temperatures than currently forecast.

Well above normal temperatures will extend into the early part of the upcoming work week, with potential for additional heat headlines both over the weekend and next week. The middle part of next week may bring another cooldown and rainfall, with another cold front approaching the area. Timing and strength of this front and even how far into the area it may move are uncertain but it brings some glimmer of hope.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase at the northeast Oklahoma sites early this morning. The showers and storms will expand in coverage and spread south and east through the day Thursday as a weak surface boundary moves across the area. VFR conditions will generally prevail outside of storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 83 68 90 72 / 90 20 20 0 FSM 96 72 92 73 / 60 60 60 10 MLC 94 70 93 72 / 70 50 50 0 BVO 82 62 89 65 / 90 10 10 10 FYV 88 65 88 66 / 70 70 50 0 BYV 86 68 86 69 / 70 60 50 0 MKO 89 67 90 69 / 70 50 30 0 MIO 82 66 88 69 / 90 20 20 10 F10 88 67 90 70 / 70 50 30 0 HHW 98 72 93 72 / 20 40 60 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.