textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered storms possible Friday evening, generally along the Kansas border.

- Hot and humid conditions continue Saturday, with a large area of heat advisory conditions during the afternoon and evening.

- Storm chances trend higher Saturday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals with the increase in daily rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The heat is the main story through the afternoon and into early evening, with a Heat Advisory continuing through 8 pm for a good chunk of eastern Oklahoma and into the Arkansas River Valley. Dew points are running a few degrees below those seen yesterday and with gusty southwest winds in much of the area, expect that overall, heat index values should be a couple of degrees lower than those yesterday. The exception may be across parts of Osage County, where dew points are locally higher along aa weak outflow boundary extending across northern parts of the county. Will keep an eye on the trends in that area, but for now, the advisory area will remain unchanged.

The aforementioned outflow boundary may be a focus for isolated to widely scattered mid to late afternoon thunderstorm development. The NBM POPs, which were below mentionable levels, have been adjusted upward along the Kansas border through 00Z given this feature. A strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible, with damaging winds being the favored threat. The bulk of these storms should diminish with sunset, with evening and overnight development more likely to the north of the Kansas border nearer to the upper level support.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Heat remains at the forefront of the immediate concerns for much of Saturday, with a shift to strong to severe thunderstorm threats by mid to late afternoon and evening. At daybreak Saturday, a boundary will likely be stretched across areas near the Kansas border eastward into southwest Missouri. Much of the guidance has this boundary stalling near Highway 412 by midday. Moisture will likely pool along and south of the boundary, and the NBM dew points have been adjusted by blending in data from the 12Z NAMNest, which depicts the expected scenario quite well. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for the highest confidence areas generally near and south of where the boundary is likely to stall. During the afternoon, the boundary will be a focus for thunderstorm development, with coverage increasing during the evening and shifting south and east with time along with the upper level disturbance. Damaging winds will remain the primary threat Saturday afternoon and evening, although with better upper level flow, a slightly higher potential for large hail will exist as well. Moving into Sunday, the better chance of showers and thunderstorms will shift into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with cooler and drier conditions to the north.

For next week, upper level high pressure will move from the southwestern United States into the Northern Plains, leaving an easterly component to the upper level winds across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Temperatures closer to seasonal normal and a break from the higher heat indices more typical of this time of year should result through at least mid week. Daily, mainly daytime thunderstorm chances will also remain the norm during this time frame.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Latest mesoanalyses and current guidance continues to suggest convection possible north of Highway 412 in nern OK this evening. Carried VCTS at BVO for a few hours to address that potential. Activity should shift north into KS late this evening. Weak boundary to push southward overnight, with more convection likely to develop near it Saturday. PROB30 groups were carried through 12/00z TUL/RVS/FYV/ ROG/XNA, with activity likely to shift south toward MLC/FSM after this forecast period ends. Generally, VFR conditions all sites through this forecast period outside of possible TSRA. Nern OK and nwrn AR sites will likely see more of a light northerly wind by Saturday afternoon as the weak boundary slides slowly southward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 96 75 92 / 0 30 70 20 FSM 77 98 75 93 / 0 10 60 50 MLC 78 97 76 94 / 0 0 50 50 BVO 73 94 71 90 / 10 20 50 10 FYV 75 92 70 88 / 0 30 70 50 BYV 78 92 70 86 / 0 30 60 50 MKO 78 96 74 91 / 0 20 60 30 MIO 73 92 70 88 / 10 20 50 20 F10 77 96 74 92 / 0 20 60 30 HHW 77 95 76 92 / 0 0 20 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ060-066-067- 070-071-073-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ129-219-220.