textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1241 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Warm and breezy weather expected Monday; limited fire weather potential, especially for northeast Oklahoma.

- Another storm system will bring a renewed threat of severe weather and heavy rain to the area Tuesday-Wednesday.

- A strong cold front on Wednesday may bring a light freeze for a few areas in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas on Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday Night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Satellite imagery currently shows mostly clear skies across the region. Southerly winds will remain somewhat elevated (5-10 mph) overnight tonight and into Monday morning. These speeds should help limit fog potential Monday morning. However, guidance has been persistent at developing some locally dense valley fog in terrain areas of southeast OK and northwest AR, close to sunrise Monday. Any fog that develops should erode by mid-morning Monday.

South to southwest winds will crank up by mid-morning as the pressure gradient tightens up. Winds gusts between 20 and 30 mph will be common by the afternoon, with an occasional gust or two up to 35 mph for parts of northeast OK. Fire weather concerns will increase some starting around midday, especially for portions of northeast OK, as a southwest-to-northeast oriented dryline mixes eastward to near the I-44 corridor by mid-afternoon. Highest fire danger concern will be north and west of the dryline, where RH values will drop between 25 and 40 percent range by peak heating time. With recent rains, the overall fire weather threat is expected to be low, but will be worth monitoring. Afternoon high temperatures on Monday will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations, but may spike into the middle 80s north and west of the dryline in the afternoon.

Short-range and hi-res models have been persistent in showing a weak and low-amplified shortwave trough moving across the area eastern OK and northwest AR during the daytime. This feature is already evident and taking shape in the latest satellite WV imagery. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight tonight and into early Monday morning across southeast OK, spreading into west-central AR by mid-morning or so. There will be marginal, but sufficient lift, low-level moisture (dewpoints near 60F), instability (1000-1200 J/kg MUCAPE), and bulk shear (30-35 kts) in place for a marginally elevated severe thunderstorm or two to develop, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards if any organized storm develops. The threat of severe weather is expected to shift to the east by or just before noon, but a few showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may linger through the afternoon along the far eastern periphery of the forecast area, including for parts of northwest AR, as the shortwave slowly continue to exit to the east.

Mostly dry weather is expected during the afternoon and into Monday evening. Low-level moisture and cloud cover will rapidly begin to increase Monday evening into Monday night as an upper- level Baja CA low moves over northwest Mexico. Cloud cover and elevated southerly winds will maintain very mild and humid conditions into Tuesday morning, with overnight lows only reaching the mid 60s for most locations.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A vigorous closed-off mid-level low, split off from the north jet stream, will lift over northwest Mexico Tuesday morning and eventually will merge with a low-amplitude trough moving over the Northern Plains on Wednesday. Deterministic GFS and ECMWF are fairly identical synoptically, with regards to timing, position, strength, and orientation of this feature as it moves over far western TX late Tuesday night. However, there continues to be smaller scale, and more local features that are in disagreement with each other that will make the forecast on Tuesday complicated. A few elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in the warm sector Tuesday morning and into the afternoon. This should not amount to much, but the environment will be favorable for at least some potential for isolated large hail with storms that form. Otherwise, the main focus will turn towards late in the afternoon into the early evening hours, when chances of severe thunderstorms will increase across the area. There is still a lot of uncertainty with how everything evolves Tuesday afternoon. Latest thinking is that surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and ahead of a dryline that will be draped across western OK. These storms will be capable of a severe weather hazards and will push east into eastern OK and eventually into western AR late in the afternoon and into early in the evening.

Storms will eventually cluster and become more linear late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning as a cold front begins approach the area from the north. Main hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts, but a low tornado potential will exist as well. As storm mode becomes more clustered and linear with time Tuesday evening/night, the potential for flash flooding will also increase. The flash flooding threat will persist through Wednesday morning and into the afternoon as the cold front arrives and brings in additional shower and thunderstorm chances. Storms along the frontal boundary will eventually merge with lingering storms from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across far eastern OK, southeast OK, and western AR. This is when the heaviest and most intense rainfall rates are expected to fall, with models bullseyeing far southeast OK and west-central AR in the afternoon. Overall, rainfall amounts will are expected to range between half an inch and 2 inches, with isolated amounts of 3 or more inches possible.

Cold front will push through the area Monday morning, with quick clearing of precipitation and cloud coverage. Much cooler temperatures are expected by Wednesday night, with a light freeze possible along the KS/OK/MO/AR borders. Temperatures will quickly rebound back into the 70s on Friday and 80s on Saturday. Rainfall looks unlikely through at least Saturday.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions persist through much of the overnight period before low clouds and MVFR cigs develop across SE OK and into NW AR. LLWS will persist into early morning across NE OK and NW AR. There is a low chance of showers this morning at KMLC and KFSM, and have introduced PROB30 groups to capture this potential. A couple lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, but confidence was not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. Low clouds will tend to hang around through the morning before eroding this afternoon. Gusty south to southwest winds develop this afternoon for much of the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 85 65 83 57 / 0 0 40 70 FSM 80 64 81 62 / 30 10 60 90 MLC 82 66 80 59 / 10 10 60 90 BVO 85 60 83 51 / 0 0 40 70 FYV 78 62 79 57 / 20 10 60 80 BYV 77 64 78 57 / 10 0 50 80 MKO 81 65 79 57 / 10 0 50 80 MIO 80 64 80 53 / 0 0 40 80 F10 84 65 80 57 / 10 0 50 90 HHW 77 65 77 61 / 30 10 50 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.