textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- High heat stress conditions continue through the weekend. - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying fuels and periods of gusty winds.

- A weak front will move into the area late Sunday and Monday bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms and a minor and brief cooldown. Localized strong downburst winds possible. Any cooling of temperatures will be minor.

- Uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals of slightly cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The prolonged heat wave engulfing the area extends into yet another day, with widespread heat index values in the 105 to 110 range and parts of the area seeing 110 to 115 peak values once again. Most of northeast Oklahoma and the I-40 corridor have been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning through 8 pm today, with the remainder of the forecast area remaining in a Heat Advisory. The Heat Advisory will stay in place overnight areawide, with low temperatures once again expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s in most spots. Dew point and temperature trends indicate values in much of the forecast area being at or above yesterdays levels, with the exception being parts of Osage and Pawnee counties which are feeling some influence of mid and high cloud cover. Given all of this, there is increased confidence that heat index values today will be similar to perhaps locally, just above yesterdays, justifying the upgrade for today.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Hot and increasingly humid conditions remain likely on Sunday, ahead of a weak cool front that will begin to make its way into the area late Sunday and into Sunday night. Moisture is expected to pool along the boundary by the afternoon and along with temperatures that should be comparable to the last few days, heat index values should be noticeably higher due to the locally higher dew points. As such, the same areas that were upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning today were also upgraded for tomorrow from Noon to 8 pm. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain expected to develop late afternoon and into the evening in the vicinity of the boundary in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with greater coverage likely just north and east of the area near a disturbance. Forecast soundings support a low chance of locally damaging winds during the afternoon with the stronger storms.

The front will sag southward tomorrow night and into Monday, with low chances for showers and storms extending roughly to the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon. Noticeably cooler conditions should be expected for the northern half of the forecast area Monday, with parts of southeast Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley hanging on the extreme heat. Additional heat headlines will be needed for some of the forecast area on Monday but with confidence low in the exact northern cut off for that need, will push that decision another shift or two in the future.

Very hot weather returns northward for Tuesday, with areawide heat headlines likely needed into Wednesday. A very low chance of another round of showers and thunderstorms in far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas exists Tuesday, although the better potential remains north of the area. The NBM POPs have been adjusted upward into the double digits but still below mentionable.

Late in the week, models continue to show the upper level high shifting westward, with periods of northwest flow developing across the area. This would favor cooler temperatures and at least a brief break in the triple digit heat in much of the area, as well as shower and thunderstorm chances. Ensemble data do show a continued wobble in where the high is centered, with occasional extensions back into our area beyond the end of this forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Near persistent hourly trends expected through Sunday morning. Winds will then trend more westerly ahead of the weak frontal boundary and eventually northerly across far NE OK. The boundary will be a focus for isolated to scattered late afternoon storms with somewhat higher chances from NE OK into far NW AR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 83 104 77 96 / 0 20 30 20 FSM 80 104 78 102 / 0 10 10 20 MLC 80 104 77 102 / 0 0 10 20 BVO 77 102 71 95 / 0 20 20 20 FYV 75 100 75 97 / 0 30 20 20 BYV 76 100 74 93 / 0 30 30 20 MKO 78 103 74 97 / 0 30 20 20 MIO 78 101 72 93 / 0 30 30 20 F10 78 104 74 98 / 0 30 20 20 HHW 78 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-059-068-069- 075-154-172-254-276-376.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058- 060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ055>058- 060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.

Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for OKZ055>058-060>067-070- 071-073-074-176-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119- 120-229.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219- 220.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219- 220.

Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220.