textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Isolated afternoon storms today and Wednesday, particularly in SE OK and NW AR.

- Temperatures near normal today, then rising above normal for the remainder of the week. Heat indices in the low-mid 100s possible Wednesday onward.

- Thunderstorm chances trend higher late week through the weekend.

- The Arkansas River near Muskogee remains in action stage but below flood stage.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon with a mid-level low lingering over Arkansas. Storm coverage should be less than yesterday and focused more across SE OK and into NW AR. Locally gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and cloud-to-ground lightning will remain the primary hazards with any storms today. Convection is likely to decrease after sunset as the atmosphere stabilizes. A few isolated storms may linger into the night near the aforementioned area of low pressure/upper trough axis, but much of this is likely to remain east and south of the forecast area. Otherwise, conditions similar to last night are expected with decreasing clouds and lows within a few degrees of 70.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

CAMs suggest at least low potential for isolated precip near the Red River again Wednesday morning. Additional isolated showers and pulse thunderstorms will be possible again during the afternoon, with the most focus across higher terrain of SE OK and W-Central AR. Warmer afternoon temperatures are likely across the area tomorrow, especially E OK, as upper level ridging expands into the area. Wednesday night into Thursday, a shortwave ejects out of the Rockies and moves into the C Plains. This is not currently expected to impact our area much, though temperatures Thursday will likely warm slightly given an increase in southwest sfc winds. Will need to monitor dew point trends tomorrow and especially Thursday as heat indices may once again flirt with advisory-criteria...mainly for the typical parts of NE OK and the AR River Valley.

Thursday night into Friday, another wave moves east into the plains and forces a frontal boundary south into or near northern portions of the CWA. Renewed thunderstorm chances occur as a result, mainly along and north of Hwy 412. The front will tend to remain nearby in some form as the upper level pattern becomes more favorable for more widespread diurnal convection this weekend. Ridging is forecast to become displaced to the west with weak troughing moving into the S Plains Saturday and Sunday. By early next week, upper ridging reintensifies across the northern plains with the aforementioned wave sliding along the southern and western periphery. Heights generally increase over our area through midweek with warmer and drier conditions returning.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Light winds with mainly diurnal cumulus are expected at all the terminals through midday Wednesday. Much like the last couple of nights, a period of reduced visibilities may occur again late tonight and into tomorrow morning at FYV, which will be covered for now with a TEMPO group at MVFR visibilities. Potential for reduced visibilities at RVS appears lower than this morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 72 96 78 98 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 73 96 76 98 / 10 20 10 0 MLC 72 96 77 97 / 10 20 10 0 BVO 68 94 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 68 92 72 94 / 10 20 10 0 BYV 67 91 73 94 / 10 20 10 0 MKO 71 94 76 97 / 10 20 10 0 MIO 68 93 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 F10 70 95 76 96 / 10 20 10 0 HHW 72 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.