textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

- Well above average temperatures will persist through Saturday. Daily record highs are expected with all-time December record highs also possible.

- Strong cold front arrives Sunday bringing a chance for showers and maybe a few storms as well. Much colder temps, more typical of late December, can be expected to start next week.

- Areas of fog possible again in the lower Arkansas River Valley Friday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Record high temperatures sure to fall this Christmas Day and once again, monthly records are a possibility. Anomalously strong upper ridge remains in place over the South Central U.S. this morning, while a very warm airmass remains south of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary located near I-70 in central KS this morning. By late today some shortwave energy is expected to eject from western trough and serve to flatten the upper ridge to some degree. This also will allow the boundary to push into at least northeast OK by Friday morning. Winds will drop off in areas closer to the border and in many valley locations allowing for another night of patchy fog development, with some locally dense fog possible.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Fog potential will linger through the morning on the cool side of the above mentioned boundary as well as some valley locations. North of the boundary will see a slightly cooler afternoon Friday, still much above normal, while record temps are again likely to the south. The boundary the retreats back north Saturday with record highs likely for all areas, with one final shot at all-time December records.

Significant changes will occur by Sunday as western trough phases with shortwave dropping out of southwest Canada. This will drive an Arctic front through the area during the day Sunday. Strong and gusty north winds will develop behind the front especially over northeast OK, where some gusts in the 30-35 mph range will make it feel decidedly colder as temperatures fall in the afternoon. A slightly slower progression of the front also introduces some chance of thunderstorms mainly from southeast OK into western AR, perhaps even a low-end threat of a strong storm or two, as the front displaces the anomalously high dew point airmass Sunday afternoon and early evening. The slower shortwave progression also keeps the chances of precip a bit longer into Sunday night, by which time temperatures will have cooled enough for a mix or brief change-over to light snow, mainly affecting higher terrain areas of northwest AR as it appears now. Impacts should remain limited as far as travel, but the temperatures change after this recent stretch will be a bit of a shock.

Temperatures remain below normal Monday and Monday night as the surface high settles over the area, with highs in some places Monday struggling to get much above freezing. Tuesday morning will start off cold with upper teens and lower 20s, but temperatures will begin to moderate quickly as the high moves southeast and begins to induce some downslope flow. Warming trend should continue into the beginning of 2026.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at most places tonight into Friday with some passing high cloud. A weak front will move into NE OK late tonight, NW AR tomorrow morning and possibly as far south as KMLC tomorrow morning as well. A light north or variable wind can be expected near and north of the boundary, with gusty south to southwest winds ahead of it.

Dense fog developed in the lower Arkansas River Valley near KFSM last night and there are hints in the data that at least patchy dense fog is possible again by Friday morning after any potential MVFR cigs scatter out. Inserted a TEMPO mention at KFSM to cover.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 57 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 61 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 61 80 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 50 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 60 77 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 62 75 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 60 76 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 56 72 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 F10 59 77 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 62 80 60 78 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.