textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1137 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Above average temperatures and dry weather will persist today.

- Increasing chances for rain and a few storms are expected from Friday into this weekend as an upper disturbance moves across.

- Confidence continues to increase that a more widespread precipitation event and cool down will occur Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A ridge of high pressure aloft over the region will maintain above average warm and dry weather through tonight, with passing high clouds.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

An upper disturbance will lift out of the Southwest Friday and into the Plains this weekend, topping/suppressing the ridge aloft. As it does so, chances for showers and some storms will spread across the forecast area. Rains are expected to be more of the off and on character through the weekend and not particularly heavy. The latest guidance suggests that Saturday night into Sunday will have the best chances.

The focus then turns to next week. Confidence is fairly high that a widespread rainfall event will occur Tuesday into Wednesday. An upper trough and associated surface low pressure and cold front are expected to shift east toward the Plains next week. There are details to be ironed out in the forecast, however. While the majority of the multi-model ensemble solutions show a more progressive wave sweeping across the country next week, a significant portion of the data (around 33%) is in one cluster that is quite a bit slower with the eastward progression. Slower solutions would prolong rain chances at least into Thursday and potentially increase rainfall amounts. A slower solution could also ingest the remnant moisture from Polo in the Pacific, and increase the potential for heavy rainfall.

In summary, confidence is high that it will rain and get cooler next week. Confidence is low on how long it will rain and how much.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Near persistent VFR conditions are expected through the period. A steady stream of mid to high clouds will continue over the region, with generally light east to southeast winds. A few spotty showers are possible Friday morning across NE OK, but chances remain too low to mention any terminal impacts at this time.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 67 88 70 88 / 0 20 10 40 FSM 62 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 63 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 64 83 65 84 / 0 20 30 50 FYV 58 90 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 BYV 59 86 65 86 / 0 10 0 10 MKO 62 90 67 90 / 0 10 0 10 MIO 63 83 68 83 / 0 20 10 30 F10 62 90 68 91 / 0 10 0 20 HHW 63 91 66 93 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.