textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 451 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Hot and humid conditions continue Friday with large area of heat advisory conditions.

- Isolated to widely scattered storms possible late Friday afternoon and evening, generally along and north of Interstate 44.

- Storm chances trend higher Saturday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals with the increase in daily rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Several thunderstorm clusters were ongoing across W KS/OK late this evening. This is associated with a shortwave trough which will continue to move east across the plains overnight. While much of this is expected to remain north and/or weaken as it approaches our area, a few isolated showers or weak thunderstorms will be possible along and north of Hwy 412 through early Friday morning. Any morning activity may produce one or more outflow boundaries across SE KS and NE OK which may act as a focus for afternoon/evening redevelopment. Several CAMs support this idea with HREF NPs favoring locations along the I-44 corridor for isolated late afternoon and evening storms. Similar to Thursday, any rainfall is expected to be spotty with most locations remaining dry. The environment will also support a limited threat for severe wind gusts and hail, in addition to locally heavy rainfall, for any storms that do develop.

Morning and afternoon precip and cloud cover will likely play a role in who sees another round of dangerous heat Friday. Overall, the airmass is not expected to change much, and high temperatures should again climb into the mid to upper 90s for much of the forecast area. Far northeast Oklahoma may be the exception given relatively higher cloud coverage/precip potential. Guidance suggests a slight decrease in dewpoint temperatures Friday (compared to previous days), even after accounting for the recent dry bias. Thus, slightly drier values were incorporated into the forecast, but otherwise leaned towards persistence. This still provides maximum heat indices near or above 105 degrees for much of the area this afternoon and early evening. Thus, a Heat Advisory was issued for much of E OK and the AR River Valley between 1 and 8 PM. Additional forecast zones may need to be added in NE OK pending convective trends this morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Friday evening into the night, a trailing wave moves overhead and pushes a weak front towards the OK-KS border. This front will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend as it sags southward and additional disturbances affect the area. Precipitation chances increase significantly Saturday afternoon through Sunday as a result. PWATs near or greater than the 90th percentile and slow storm motions will increase the heavy rain threat during this time, and localized instances of flash flooding will be possible. Upper level ridging intensifies over the northern plains by early next week, with a gradual expansion south into our area through the week. As a result, rain chances will become increasingly restricted to SE OK and W AR. Mostly dry conditions are favored from mid week onward as the ridge moves overhead.

Temperatures will initially trend cooler through early next week with unsettled weather...likely back to near seasonal averages (upper 80s/lower 90s). However, as the ridge builds overhead, temperatures will increase yet again with dangerous heat possibly returning by late week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Areas of wind shear will end by mid morning. Periods of mid to high clouds are expected today. Breezy southerly winds continue as well, with a few isolated showers and storms in northeast OK, with the best chance near KBVO. Any storms would bring gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 98 79 95 75 / 20 10 40 70 FSM 97 78 97 76 / 0 10 30 70 MLC 95 79 95 76 / 0 0 0 60 BVO 96 75 93 71 / 20 20 40 70 FYV 93 76 91 71 / 10 10 50 70 BYV 93 74 91 70 / 20 20 60 70 MKO 96 78 95 74 / 10 10 20 70 MIO 93 74 90 71 / 20 40 50 80 F10 96 78 95 74 / 10 10 20 70 HHW 96 77 94 76 / 0 0 0 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-060>062-066-067-070-071-073>075-176-272-276- 376.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.