textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Low storm chances Tuesday night along the Kansas and Missouri borders.

- Low chances of showers and thunderstorms for the weekend, with a limited severe weather potential during the period.

- Temperatures near to above mid May normals forecast through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Low impact weather remains expected for the rest of this evening and overnight and through much of Tuesday. Generally light winds, cool temperatures and potential for a modest increase in high cloud cover from the north should prevail for the rest of the night. Surface high pressure will pull away from the area through the period, leading to increasing southerly winds during the day Tuesday and warmer afternoon temperatures than those seen on Monday. Low level moisture will increase across mainly parts of eastern Oklahoma in response to the increased southerly flow. Have continued to adjust dew point trends through Tuesday afternoon using the short-term blended guidance to slow the increase slightly across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas given the relative proximity of the high to those areas.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The immediate concern for the extended is how much, if any, convection spreads into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday night in response to the cool front approaching and finally moving through the area. Trends have been for decreasing coverage this far south, with perhaps a couple of showers or storms drifting across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. The NBM initialization has non-mentionable POPs Tuesday night, and this forecast will feature only a modest increase to slight chance across the previously mentioned areas. The severe weather potential appears low but nonzero. The front should clear southeast Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon, with the delayed passage leading to warm afternoon temperatures there while areas farther north see slightly cooler temperatures compared to Tuesday.

Southerly winds will begin to make a return Wednesday night and strengthen on Thursday as an upper level ridge shifts eastward toward the area. Potential for warm advection showers exists Thursday morning, primarily across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The NBM initialization hints at this, although not enough to reflect a mention in the forecast. The initialization values have been increased to slight chance given how much of the model suite depicts this scenario. Temperatures Thursday will be seasonably warm, with the forecast reflecting a blend of the NBM and the traditional MOS guidance. A similar blend has been used for Friday/s highs. The stretch of well above normal temperatures will extend through the weekend, with the extent of the heat likely to hinge on how much shower and thunderstorm development occurs during the time frame.

Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances appear likely by early next week with a slow-moving front and southwest flow aloft. Cooler temperatures should occur as well.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 82 61 82 59 / 0 10 0 20 FSM 83 57 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 82 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 83 55 80 52 / 0 10 0 20 FYV 80 55 80 52 / 0 10 0 0 BYV 80 59 78 52 / 0 20 0 0 MKO 80 59 82 58 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 79 57 78 55 / 0 20 0 10 F10 81 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 80 56 87 61 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.