textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 - An unsettled weather pattern with multiple opportunities for thunderstorms, along with some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall potential through mid next week.

- A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A compact MCV continues to lift northeast across northeast Oklahoma and into southern Kansas this afternoon. Instability has been mostly non-existent through the morning hours with almost no lightning noted across the region over the last several hours. That trend is expected to continue in the vicinity of the MCV with mostly light to moderate showers expected through mid afternoon north of I-40. Some clearing skies are noted across north Texas into south central Oklahoma which is allowing for an increase in instability which will track into southeast Oklahoma over the coming hours. An area of subtle lift associated with the right entrance of the upper jet streak will also track eastward along the Red River through mid afternoon. Therefore, a short period of increased thunderstorm potential will be possible from early to mid afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and possibly into west central Arkansas. Better shear south of I-40 would also support a strong to marginally severe storm or two, with gusty winds and marginally severe hail the main threats. Coverage of stronger storms is still expected to be isolated though, with most just seeing some showers or general thunderstorms through the afternoon. Any activity should shift eastward and dissipate by this evening as synoptic subsidence spreads over the region in the wake of the exiting shortwave/MCV feature.

Additional thunderstorm development back along the dryline in western Oklahoma appears unlikely at this point owing to the area of subsidence. Therefore, chances for any storms moving into eastern Oklahoma from the west this evening remain unmentionable (less than 10 percent) through the period. Southerly winds will remain breezy overnight tonight with mild overnight lows in the 60s once again expected across the area.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A conditional threat for higher end severe weather potential will exist through much of the first part of the week. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will spread over much of the Plains as several subtle features move through the flow. Monday appears to be the most conditional day of the period. An increasingly unstable and sheared environment will expand into the area by Monday afternoon, while a dryline sharpens to the west across western Oklahoma. Guidance continues to be reluctant to develop any convection tomorrow afternoon as very warm 850hPa temps near 20C are noted over much of the warm sector. Therefore, much of the area is expected to remain capped through the day tomorrow and storm coverage will remain isolated at best. If a storm can develop along the dryline in western Oklahoma, it may maintain a severe threat into a portion of eastern Oklahoma early Monday evening before weakening as it interacts an increasingly strong cap as the evening progresses.

A similar setup is slated for Tuesday, though an approaching mid level wave ejecting out of the Rockies should cool mid level temps somewhat and weaken the cap by Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, more scattered convection is forecast for Tuesday with another higher end severe threat possible with any storms that do develop. The dryline is progged to mix further east on Tuesday, which brings more of eastern Oklahoma under the threat than Monday. A secondary wave is forecast to move closer to the local region by Wednesday, along with bringing a frontal boundary into the region. This would seem to provide the highest potential for greater storm coverage over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The environment will still be supportive of severe weather, with some higher end potential continuing across the region. Details in timing and placement of relevant features become less certain in this timeframe, but much of the area will see increasing severe chances through the day Wednesday as it stands right now.

The frontal passage should bring at least a brief break from storm chances on Thursday before the chances increase again by late week into next weekend with a more substantial frontal passage.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Currently, visible satellite and latest surface observations show a mixed bag of VFR and MVFR cigs overspreading the forecast area, with lowest cigs occurring across southeast OK and northwest AR. Cigs will trend towards prevailing MVFR at all TAF sites generally after sunset this evening. Timing and duration of said cigs are still somewhat uncertain, but confidence is high that MVFR will prevail overnight tonight and through a good chunk of the daytime on Monday. Clouds may lift and break apart, specifically for the OK TAF sites, in the afternoon, where VFR conditions will be possible by early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, MVFR cigs look to prevail at all west-central and northwest AR TAF sites through the remainder of the period. South to southwest winds will remain breezy and gusty through the forecast period, with frequent gusts between 20-30 knots much of the time.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 67 84 70 84 / 10 10 10 40 FSM 66 85 68 84 / 20 20 10 20 MLC 67 83 69 81 / 10 10 20 30 BVO 63 85 67 84 / 10 10 20 30 FYV 64 81 66 81 / 10 10 10 20 BYV 65 80 68 81 / 10 10 10 20 MKO 66 82 68 80 / 10 10 10 40 MIO 66 81 69 82 / 10 10 10 30 F10 67 84 69 80 / 10 0 20 30 HHW 65 80 65 79 / 20 20 10 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.