textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

- Snow and sleet accumulations will continue through Sunday afternoon. Travel will become near impossible at times during the most intense precipitation tonight.

- Life threatening cold persists through Monday morning. Lows Monday morning will be near or below zero. - Travel conditions will be slow to improve as cold temperatures persist through early week, though some temperature moderation is expected.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1007 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Analysis of water vapor imagery reveals a robust upper level low entering Texas this evening. The GLM shows numerous cloud flashes in the convection wrapping around this low, which is ejecting northeastward into the forecast area as its absorbed into the main upper level trough.

In the meantime, confluent mid level flow at 700 hPa is supporting frontogenesis to the west of the forecast area. Widespread upper level diffluence and increase potential vorticity advection is also noted. Cooling cloud tops and expanding precipitation within the frontogenetical zone are occurring. Meanwhile, fairly deep moisture continues to stream into the area from the south ahead of the upper level low.

A mid level warm nose was evident on the OUN sounding at 00z, with the 800-700 hPa layer at 0 to +2 C. Areas of sleet have and will continue to occur as far north as a line from Okmulgee through Bentonville, though this line should begin drifting south with time. Within the sleet zone, the phase may change back and forth depending on precipitation intensity.

CAM guidance had mostly trended down for tonight compared to what had been advertised. However, the observational analysis discussed above suggests that tonight will indeed produce noteworthy snow and sleet. In fact, recent guidance shows robust heavy snow moving through much of northeast OK and sleet for southeast OK and northwest AR. This should continue for several hours. Areas of banded snow or sleet will allow certain corridors to see relatively heavier totals with time.

During the second half of the night, colder air will begin streaming in aloft and all areas will switch to snow from west to east, even if only briefly when precipitation is wrapping up. Snow ratios will quickly increase overnight as this colder air works its way in, finally ending by late morning or early afternoon. In terms of our updated snow and sleet totals, all of the factors mentioned suggest a fairly wide range of possibilities. For areas that see sleet, totals could locally be as high as 2-3 inches. For snow dominant areas, totals could be as low as 2-4 inches in spots and as high as 10 inches in others. On average, however, an additional 4-8 inches can be expected within the snow zone. Then, in between the snow and sleet dominant areas, a mixture of both will occur. Roads are already a mess, this additional snow will exacerbate existing issues. Temperatures will remain very cold Sunday, with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits for most locations.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1007 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Monday morning looks quite cold with partially clearing skies, light winds, and deep snow cover. Lows will fall to near or below zero across the area. Monday afternoon will only warm into the low to mid 20s.

For the mid week period, temperatures will attempt to moderate, but with mostly flat gradients and deep snow cover, any moderation will be slow. High temperatures will rise into the low to mid 30s (warmest south) for this period, but with overnight lows remaining mostly in the teens. This will keep the snow and sleet mostly in place, and roads will likely remain tricky in many areas. Another surge of arctic air arrives Friday, plunging temperatures back below freezing into next weekend. There is a chance for some additional snow as the cold air arrives, but for now ensemble guidance says we are most likely going to remain dry.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Snow will taper off and end by around midday. Prior to that time, visibilities will fall into the IFR range at times. MVFR ceilings will persist into the afternoon before clearing from north to south late this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 17 -2 23 9 / 70 10 0 0 FSM 19 1 23 2 / 70 10 0 0 MLC 17 0 26 8 / 50 10 0 0 BVO 15 -5 22 4 / 70 10 0 0 FYV 16 -4 22 7 / 80 10 0 0 BYV 14 -4 21 9 / 80 10 0 0 MKO 16 -3 22 6 / 70 10 0 0 MIO 15 -7 19 8 / 80 10 0 0 F10 16 -2 24 8 / 50 10 0 0 HHW 19 5 27 4 / 60 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ049- 053>076.

AR...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ001- 002-010-011-019-020-029.