textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Predominantly dry conditions expected Friday as most precipitation exits to the east, but isolated showers remain possible during the afternoon across northwest Arkansas.

- Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normals this weekend.

- Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday Night) Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Widespread showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms were ongoing across the forecast area as of late Thursday evening. Precipitation will gradually shift east through the overnight hours, with PoPs becoming increasingly confined to northwest Arkansas Friday morning. Outside of the ongoing shower activity, patchy drizzle and/ or light fog may develop during the overnight/ early morning hours given the very saturated airmass.

A cold front is dragged through the forecast area today as the mid- upper level wave begins to depart. Still, high temperatures max out around 70 degrees across NE OK and NW AR, and in the mid-upper 70s across SE OK and W-Central AR. WNW winds will pick up slightly behind the front today, but should generally remain within 10 to 20 mph. A couple of showers remain possible in NW AR this afternoon as the upper level disturbance passes just to the north, but overall, dry conditions are forecast for much of the day.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Cooler and dry conditions are likely Saturday and early Sunday while shortwave ridging builds over the region. Another storm system arrives late Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain chances to E OK & NW AR. Guidance has trended quicker and further north with this system, reducing the heavy rain/ flooding threat. Still, expect 1-2 inches of rainfall (locally up to 3") within the heaviest axis... currently aligned across SE OK and W-Central AR. Instability continues to appear on the weaker side, but thunderstorms including a couple of strong storms, cannot be ruled out Sunday night, mainly in SE OK. Rain chances exit the region by late Monday. A couple of cold fronts push into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing colder temperatures to the FA through the end of the week (Highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s/ 30s). Dry weather is expected through at least Thanksgiving.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Moderate/heavy rain shield continues to shift eastward into AR and MO. Lightning has been very scarce due to instability remaining very limited, with the best instability south and east of the forecast area. MVFR, with periodic IFR, conditions will prevail at most TAF sites by the start of the forecast period. Most of the rainfall will generally end just after midnight tonight, though there will still be periods of showers, especially across parts of NE OK and far NW AR beyond midnight and through mid-morning Friday. Improvements to ceilings and visibilities will come around mid-late Friday morning and into the afternoon. However, a frontal boundary will cause winds to turn W/NW late in the afternoon and into the evening and MVFR ceilings may return, though coverage and duration is uncertain at this time.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 69 60 71 47 / 80 90 0 0 FSM 72 62 76 52 / 90 100 10 0 MLC 73 60 75 48 / 80 100 0 0 BVO 67 55 70 43 / 80 90 0 0 FYV 69 59 72 48 / 90 80 20 10 BYV 67 59 71 49 / 90 90 30 0 MKO 70 60 73 48 / 80 90 10 0 MIO 67 60 70 46 / 80 90 20 10 F10 70 58 73 47 / 70 90 0 0 HHW 73 61 75 48 / 80 90 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.