textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Low thunderstorm chances through Sunday. Limited severe risk Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Strong winds possible across NE OK through early Saturday morning, especially near shower and thunderstorm activity.

- A more active weather pattern is expected early next week including the risk of higher-end severe weather and heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Elevated storms have decreased in coverage but winds remain gusty near and north of where the activity has been weakening. A short- term wind advisory will be issued to cover areas along and north of I-44 for the gusty winds beneath the decaying showers/storms. This activity has been occurring ahead of a shortwave trough that shows up on WV imagery to our west. An MCS is weakening as it progresses east near the Red River and vicinity, but is in the process of leaving an MCV behind. This MCV is expected to track across SE OK and NW AR during the morning and midday hours on Saturday, in tandem with the broader shortwave trough. Given the steep lapse rates aloft as the previous shift mentioned, this forcing will result in other round of elevated/high-based showers and isolated storms moving east across the region tonight into Saturday. Once this wave/MCV passes Saturday afternoon, there will be a lull in activity. Chances of storm development on the dryline out west are minimal Saturday afternoon.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Aside from a low chance of showers from the ArkLaTex up into NW AR in the deep-layer moist plume, the focus on Sunday will continue to be to the west of the forecast area on the dryline. Isolated storm development is possible, with any storms that survive into eastern OK carrying a higher-end severe risk.

A strong upper trough is expected to emerge into the central Plains Monday. By Monday afternoon, a sharp dryline will lie over western OK extending north to a triple point over KS where it intersects a southeastward-surging cold front. There will be a more pronounced increase in low level moisture east of the dryline with dewpoints climbing into the 70s. There is some disagreement on how capped the warm sector will be, with the EC showing some capping and the GFS showing an uncapped airmass. This could affect warm sector quality. With at least a glancing influence from the ejecting shortwave trough, storms are expected to develop off the dryline and will carry the highest severe threat potential for this forecast into eastern OK Monday afternoon and evening.

The models today continue with a more aggressive southward push to the cold front. Current progs have the front sliding south across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. The front would focus storms and some severe threat as well as it moves through. Depending on the speed of the front, there could be some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall potential Tuesday afternoon and evening over SE OK and NW AR. While some chance for showers and storms will persist over the region through Thursday in advance of a shortwave trough, the greater severe weather potential will shift south of the region with the front. Rain/storm chances will persist through the end of next week as moisture returns, but we lose the flow aloft, thus severe potential will be limited.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail for all sites through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the region early tonight. Strong winds have been observed near this activity, and expect this potential to continue through the night. In general, gusts in excess of 35 kts will be possible, though a few gusts as high as 45-50 kts have been observed in far NE OK. Precip potential will wane through the late morning hours, then the area is expected to remain dry through the remainder of the period. Guidance hints at some low cloud development this morning and again tonight, but currently believe cigs will remain VFR. The nocturnal LLJ will provide LLWS through the overnight hours and again Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 88 71 87 74 / 20 0 0 30 FSM 88 69 87 72 / 10 0 20 30 MLC 87 70 86 75 / 10 0 10 30 BVO 88 71 86 72 / 20 0 10 30 FYV 84 67 83 71 / 20 0 0 30 BYV 86 67 86 71 / 20 0 10 20 MKO 86 70 84 72 / 20 0 0 30 MIO 86 69 84 72 / 30 0 0 30 F10 87 71 86 73 / 20 0 0 30 HHW 87 70 87 73 / 10 0 10 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ055>064-154-254- 354.

AR...None.