textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1144 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Gusty south winds and a warming trend return Sunday and Monday.

- Thunderstorm chances return by Monday evening through Tuesday. Some severe weather potential will exist Monday night and Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures briefly return mid-week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

S-SW winds have increased this morning and with full sun, temperatures are warming quickly. Winds stay up in most areas overnight and, along with gradual low level moisture return, will keep overnight lows notably milder tonight.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Gusty south winds continue Monday with guidance supporting widespread gusts in the 30-35 mph range through the afternoon. A brief gust or two around 40 mph could occur in normally windier spots, but unlikely enough to support an advisory. Temperatures again will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s, with continued increase in dew points.

While there are hints of some convection breaking out on the dry line to our west and moving toward eastern OK during the evening, strong capping will be in place, and the more likely scenario will be for scattered elevated convection associated with strengthening low level jet to develop and potentially affect parts of northeast OK and northwest AR. Instability and shear would support a low threat of hail. By Tuesday morning a cold front will begin to surge southeastward across the local area. The front will mark the division between moist and unstable airmass to the south and a much cooler one north, and the eventually position of the front will have large bearing on extent of severe weather potential for our region. Higher-res guidance suggests front may hang up in the terrain, thus a more favored corridor for afternoon development appears to be from part of northwest AR into far southeast OK. Wind profiles suggest more linear mode of storms should be favored and window of discrete storms will be short.

Precip chances continue as the upper wave pivots across the region with our area now on the cold side of the boundary. This will bring a much cooler day Wednesday with highs from around 60 in the north to low 70s near the Red River. Also well below normal for lows Thursday morning with upper 30s and 40s common (and even a 5-10% chance of low at or below freezing near the KS/MO borders). Temps will warm quickly to close out the week with rain and thunderstorm chances returning toward the end of, or just beyond this forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Periods of gusty winds and low level wind shear will be the main aviation concerns through midday Monday. South to southwest wind gusts are beginning to develop late this morning, with gusts expected to be around 20 kts for the most part through the afternoon. Confidence in prolonged wind gusts is lowest at FSM and will not be included there through the afternoon. Low level wind shear is expected at all sites from mid evening to just past daybreak tomorrow in response to a low level jet. Winds will remain up overnight at most spots, with persistent gustiness most likely to continue overnight at TUL and FYV. Stronger south to southwest winds and wind gusts will develop mid to late morning tomorrow, with gusts around 25 kts. VFR conditions are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 83 63 83 63 / 0 0 10 20 FSM 82 58 82 65 / 0 0 0 20 MLC 81 60 81 68 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 83 59 83 57 / 0 0 10 30 FYV 78 58 80 61 / 0 0 0 40 BYV 77 60 78 62 / 0 0 10 50 MKO 81 60 79 65 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 80 60 79 58 / 0 0 10 50 F10 82 60 81 65 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 80 57 79 66 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.