textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Low chance of a few rain or snow showers across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening.

- Very cold temperatures and wind chills expected Friday night into Saturday morning, with minimum wind chill values dropping below zero; Cold Weather Advisory in effect from 12 AM to 12 PM on Saturday.

- Steady warm-up expected Sunday through Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase with approaching upper-level system Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Latest surface obs/analysis shows an area of low pressure in the vicinity of Creek County late this morning and a cold front draped nearly along I-40. The low will continue advancing east through the afternoon and will further push the frontal boundary across the rest of the area by mid to late afternoon. North to northwest winds are expected to become breezy, with gusts around 25 mph into early this evening. A low chance (10-15%) of a few sprinkles (and later possibly a few flurries) may develop along and just behind the frontal boundary across far eastern OK and western AR this afternoon and evening. No impacts or accumulations expected.

Much colder temperatures are anticipated tonight be behind the cold front. Clouds will begin to break apart and scatter-out from northwest to southeast late this afternoon into this evening. Overnight lows will fall into the mid-teens to low 20s tonight. Winds will gradually decrease through the overnight hours, but will be elevated enough to maintain wind chills in the teens all evening and all night.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Friday will start off very chilly, with wind chills generally in the teens through much of the morning. Some warming may occur late in the morning and early afternoon, but persistent northerly winds will keep wind chill values in the 20s or low 30s during the daytime. A more robust surge of cold air will push into eastern OK and western AR by mid-late afternoon and through the evening Friday. Winds will increase out of the north behind the surge, with occasional gusts 25-30 mph, locally stronger in the higher terrain areas, through Friday evening. A brief period of flurries remains possible as the Arctic air arrives. No impacts or accumulations expected. Exceptionally cold temperatures and wind chill temperatures will develop Friday night into Saturday morning, with overnight lows dropping into the single digits for most locations and wind chill values ranging from -10 to 0 F. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast from midnight Saturday through noon Saturday. Winds begin to subside by early to mid morning Saturday as surface ridging begins to settle into the area. Temperatures will stay very cold through the afternoon Saturday, with afternoon highs only reaching the low to mid 20s (near 30 F along the Red River).

Temperatures will start to modify Saturday night into Sunday as surface ridging scoots eastward and southerly winds return. Temperatures will steadily warm up to seasonal average by Monday night into Tuesday. Next best chance for widespread precipitation will come ahead of an approaching shortwave trough that will dig southward from the Upper Midwest region Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will be well above freezing Tuesday, so precipitation should fall as liquid rain. However, another cold front will be moving through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and there could be a rain/snow mix for a few spots late Tuesday night if precipitation is able to stick around. Better details will be ironed out over the next few days.

Mejia

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A shift to northerly winds will occur over the next few hours, with all terminals seeing northerly flow by late afternoon. Areas of low clouds and possibly brief ceilings in the 3-4 kft layer may occur this afternoon and evening in northwest AR. A few light showers or flurries may occur as well, but no accumulation is expected. Winds will lighten up overnight with ceilings lifting in OK, but likely maintaining or even lowering a bit in NW AR where MVFR criteria may be met. Arkansas ceilings will then break up Friday mid morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 16 32 5 23 / 0 10 10 0 FSM 22 39 10 28 / 20 10 10 0 MLC 19 37 8 27 / 0 10 10 0 BVO 12 30 2 22 / 0 10 10 0 FYV 16 33 5 24 / 10 10 10 0 BYV 17 30 5 23 / 10 10 10 0 MKO 17 34 7 25 / 0 10 10 0 MIO 14 29 4 21 / 10 10 10 0 F10 17 35 7 25 / 0 10 10 0 HHW 24 43 12 30 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.