textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Maybe a few sprinkles or spotty light showers tonight into Tuesday morning.

- More near record heat Wednesday and Thursday, along with near critical fire weather danger Thursday.

- Low rain chances late this week with another front.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Increasing cloud cover associated with a mid level shortwave moving through the Central Plains will help keep temperatures more mild tonight than last night. Enough mid level moisture will exist that a few sprinkles or very light showers could fall across portions of NE OK and NW AR overnight into Tuesday morning. Relatively dry low levels will likely hinder much reaching the ground and any amounts will likely range from just a trace to a couple hundredths of an inch. Light easterly winds will gradually become southeasterly by Tuesday morning as surface ridging continues to slide eastward. Cloud cover will likely hang around through much of the morning before clearing from west to east through the afternoon hours. Thus, have lowered high temps a few degrees, especially across NW AR where clearing might not occur until mid afternoon. Southerly winds will make for another mild night Tuesday night under mostly clear conditions.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Near record to record heat returns through the middle part of the week as deep layer ridging builds back over the Southern Plains. Highs will once again trend into the upper 80s to mid 90s both Wednesday and Thursday. Southerly winds will also increase during this time as an approaching frontal boundary acts to tighten the gradient over much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Thursday will likely be the biggest concern for fire weather with the highest temperatures and strongest winds in place. Low level moisture will also increase ahead of the boundary which could keep min RH values from reaching critical levels Thursday afternoon however. Still, the prolonged dry spell has led to receptive fuels across much of the area and fire weather headlines could be needed for Thursday.

The aforementioned cold front slips into the region Thursday night into Friday. Enough moisture will be in place that a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm could occur along the boundary, mostly across far NE OK and NW AR more on the periphery of the deep layer ridge. Amounts still look to be pretty light and widespread wetting rains are not expected with this system. More seasonable weather will follow the front on Friday, along with gusty northerly winds. Near normal conditions continue on Saturday as the surface high settles overhead. Warming temperatures and dry conditions will build back in for the latter half of the weekend into early next week as the ridge remains nearby the local region. Guidance and pattern trends continue to point to a shift toward the middle of next week to more western CONUS troughing and more activity across the Plains. This would increase opportunities for some much needed rain along with possible severe weather chances heading into the first week of April.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

BKN to OVC mid level clouds in the 4-7 kft range will will linger through the morning hours, becoming SCT into the afternoon and evening hours. High clouds are also expected to continue. Generally south to southeast winds are expected at most terminals through the forecast period, with a few higher gusts to 20 kts during the day today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 72 54 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 69 51 89 61 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 74 58 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 70 48 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 67 51 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 67 50 84 66 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 69 53 87 64 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 70 51 85 65 / 10 0 0 0 F10 74 56 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 76 56 85 62 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.