textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1022 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

- Mild conditions continue into the weekend with much above normal temperatures likely next week. Medium to high chance of daily record high temperatures.

- Strong and gusty southerly winds are expected at times.

- Increased low level moisture should limit the overall fire weather threat through at least mid week, despite the warm temperatures and periods of gusty winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1022 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Drier air will continue to move southward into the area Sunday morning with prevailing northerly winds through midday in the wake of today/s cold front. This should keep warm advection showers south and east of the forecast area once southerly 850 flow begins to make a return in east Texas around daybreak. Temperatures areawide will be noticeably cooler tomorrow than observed today, with most spots in the mid and upper 50s to near 60 at peak heating.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1022 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

A very warm week ahead is a near certainty, with a high chance of daily record highs and perhaps all-time December highs being set. Upper level ridging builds into the south central into parts of the southeastern United States from Monday into Christmas Day, with the pattern forecast to flatten and eventually feature southwesterly flow aloft Friday into the next weekend. Forecast 500 height and 850 temperature anomalies, EFI values of at least 0.9 for surface high temperature, and strong downslope low level winds all point toward the Wednesday through Thursday period as featuring the highest temperatures areawide, with the southern half to two-thirds of the area also seeing similar conditions on both Tuesday and Friday. Forecast highs have been nudged upward from the NBM initialization toward the warmer 50th percentile values on Wednesday and Thursday, as the NBM tends to underdo highs in these circumstances, especially at this time range.

With a southerly component to low level winds extending from the Gulf for a prolonged period of time, unseasonably high dew points should be expected to make a return and linger through at least the middle to latter part of the week, limiting the overall fire weather threat despite the very warm temperatures and on Wednesday and Thursday, gusty winds. The initial increase in the low level moisture late Monday night and into Tuesday morning is enough to bring a low chance of showers to parts of southeast Oklahoma and perhaps west central Arkansas. Have increased POPs slightly from the NBM initialization from 06Z to 18Z Tuesday for this potential.

Next weekend may bring a cold front, leading to a modest cooldown from the very warm conditions in the preceding week. Low rain chances will also exist.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Scattered to broken high clouds should remain over the CWA through the TAF period. Additional mid clouds also look to lift into southeast Oklahoma during the day Sunday. These mid clouds are forecast to become MVFR ceilings late evening and spread over the CWA just outside of this TAF period. Will carry a Tempo for MVFR ceilings at KMLC. North to northeast winds start out the period and become easterly during the day Sunday and east to southeast Sunday evening. VFR conditions are forecast through the majority of the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 36 57 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 41 58 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 42 61 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 31 56 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 36 57 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 34 52 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 38 57 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 33 55 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 F10 38 58 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 47 59 47 69 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.