textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- A potent arctic front will bring life threatening cold to the area beginning Friday, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected later Friday through Sunday morning bringing climatologically extreme snow and freezing rain totals to the entire forecast area.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts will linger for several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Mostly clear skies will continue through the afternoon and overnight hours with this mornings cold front quickly moving east. Mild temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the 50s, but will cool to a little below normal tonight, mainly in the 20s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Thursday will be another quiet day with highs in the 50s and increasing clouds ahead of the next storm system. Attention then turns to the major to potentially historic winter storm expected to clobber the region Friday into Sunday. The large scale setup will feature a near record breaking arctic high descending south this weekend, with surface pressure as high as 1052 hPa. This very cold and very dense airmass will sweep south through the Plains. Meanwhile, a well positioned cut off low near southern California will be in just the right spot to be incompletely absorbed into the arctic trough. This will maximize the time the region will spend under moist isentropic upglide as well as upper level lift from the jet. The result will be a prolonged period of moderate to heavy precipitation resulting in significant snow and ice. Details on the timing and amounts are found below.

The initial arctic intrusion will slosh in rather than surge. A light northerly pressure gradient will gradually increase north winds early Friday morning, becoming stronger during the daytime with gusts to 25-35 mph. Temperatures will fall below freezing near and north of the I-44 corridor by daybreak, with subfreezing air working south to roughly a line from McAlester to Fayetteville by early afternoon. Some model guidance produces some light frontal precip during this timeframe. This would be rain for southeast OK to the south of the previously mentioned demarcation line. North of there, it could be a mixture of light snow, sleet, or freezing rain. Amounts would be minimal, but some minor impacts can't be ruled out by late morning north of I-40 and early afternoon south of I-40. Still, the most likely scenario is for impacts to begin during the afternoon to early evening hours. It is also worth mentioning that if model guidance is incorrect there could be shifts in the precipitation types. That applies to the entire storm system.

By Friday evening cold air will surge south more quickly, with the entire forecast area now below freezing. The coldest air will be in northeast OK where temps will be in the teens by this point. Upper level lift will increase with strong moist advection occurring. This will result in moderate to heavy precipitation spreading northward with time. Careful examination of model soundings suggests all or mostly all snow north of roughly I-40, with heavy sleet for areas to the south (including the Fort Smith area). It would only be for portions of far southeast OK where appreciable freezing rain may occur. Snow in the north and sleet or freezing rain in the south will continue all night. For areas seeing snow, winds gusting to 20-30 mph will result in blowing and drifting snow. For areas seeing freezing rain, this combination could result in power outages.

Temperatures will remain steady or slowly cool during the day Saturday. High temperatures will be 9-17F for northeast OK and northwest AR, with 18-28F for southeast OK and west-central AR. The same layout of precipitation types will largely persist through much of the day. But as the coldest air sinks into the region Saturday evening, all areas should at least briefly change over to snow. There was a definite trend on 12z guidance today for a bit of a lull midday Saturday before an additional surge of precipitation occurs into Sunday morning. Higher snow ratios at this point would likely result in efficient accumulation. Storm total amounts are still uncertain, but confidence is high they will be significant. Much of northeast OK and northwest AR is expected to see 8-12 inches. Even the "fizzle" scenario of 4-6 inches would still easily warrant a Winter Storm Warning. Sleet accumulations could easily be a couple of inches for southeast OK into west-central AR. Precipitation type is most uncertain near the Red River. Depending on the exact precipitation type it could be more sleet or more freezing rain, but either way, significant ice is expected and it will greatly impact travel. These types of storm totals will likely greatly impact area infrastructure for a time, with difficult to impossible travel. Power outages are certainly possible, but more especially within areas of freezing rain. This is a storm to take seriously and prepare now.

We have spoken extensively of the precipitation issues, but extreme cold is also expected. Wind chills will be below zero for a good chunk of the area by Saturday afternoon, with values as low as -10F or so (and 0 to 10F in southeast OK). These values will likely fall below zero areawide on Sunday morning, with wind chill readings as low as -15F in the north. Clear skies and light winds into Monday morning may produce actual lows below zero. This type of setup historically has resulted in lows even below -10F, and some mode guidance hints at that for colder areas north of I-40. For now went with -7F to +2F Monday morning. Accordingly, an Extreme Cold Watch was issued for early Saturday into Monday morning. Several record lows or min maximums (lowest high) are possible based on the current forecast.

Temperatures will begin to warm Monday and Tuesday with light southerly flow, and temperatures may break freezing Tuesday. However, a secondary dry cold front will drop another cold airmass into the area midweek. This combined with likely deep snow/ice cover will probably keep roads a mess through much of the week. Be prepared for a long period with limited mobility and potentially limited power as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Low clouds have developed across NW AR along and in advance of the cold front which will move through the region over the next few hours. A brief time for flight level impacts will persist through early afternoon otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Low confidence in any late night fog and or early day stratus across SE OK into NW AR so forecast will not include at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 26 51 27 29 / 0 0 10 30 FSM 28 53 33 38 / 0 0 10 30 MLC 29 55 33 35 / 0 0 20 50 BVO 19 50 19 24 / 0 0 0 30 FYV 24 52 24 32 / 0 0 10 30 BYV 25 48 24 26 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 27 52 31 33 / 0 0 10 30 MIO 24 50 23 23 / 0 0 0 20 F10 27 53 30 32 / 0 0 10 40 HHW 34 53 38 43 / 0 0 30 70

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.