textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1115 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances through today and tonight. A few strong to severe storms possible.

- Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normal this weekend.

- Increasing rain and storm chances again late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1115 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A warm front was observed moving back northward late Wednesday, positioned near the Interstate 40 corridor as of late Wednesday evening. This front will continue to lift north into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the overnight hours as a sfc low strengthens over the central high plains. By the early morning hours, this front is likely to be near or just south of the Oklahoma-Kansas border. Meanwhile, a potent mid-upper level low was evident on GOES water vapor imagery, moving east into the four-corners region. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage through early Thursday morning as warm air advection intensifies with the aid of a strengthening low level jet. Storms may continue to be strong to severe through Thursday morning, with mainly a large hail threat, provided adequate instability and wind shear. Storms may also produce heavy rainfall, but this will likely become the larger concern as we go into the day Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms are projected to become more widespread through the morning hours, especially in the vicinity of the warm front (Hwy 412 to KS/MO borders), as well as across southeast Oklahoma as strong height falls overspread the area. As the upper low moves closer, moisture return intensifies and PWATs will increase to near daily maximum climatological values. While it has been dry for much of the region as of late, very heavy rainfall will support localized flash flooding, especially for locations that receive training/ repeated heavy rain, as well as in urban areas. A lull in heavier precipitation may develop by early afternoon as the warm front lifts north. However, additional shower and storm development is likely by late afternoon/ evening with the arrival of the parent low/ associated shortwave trough axis. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will again be the primary concern with this activity, though some severe potential may also evolve... primarily across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.

The severe threat this afternoon and evening will heavily depend on rain/cloud coverage and the resultant degree of destabilization earlier in the day. In the event sufficient instability develops, strong bulk shear may help foster a few strong to severe thunderstorms with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. CAMs generally suggest multicell storm mode, but some supercellular structures could develop given veering wind profiles and elongated hodographs. Low level shear may also be supportive of a limited tornado threat if storms are able to take advantage of it. However, antecedent cloudiness/ rainfall and generally poor mid level lapse rates reduce confidence in the overall severe threat and coverage we see later today.

Precipitation decreases from west to east tonight as the trough axis passes overhead and drier air is advected into the region from the west. Storm total rainfall amounts are still expected to remain in the 1-3 inch range for most locations with isolated totals in excess of 4 inches. While still well above average, high temperatures today will be held in the upper 60s or lower 70s given plentiful clouds and rainfall. Low temperatures tonight remain quite warm... near the average high for this time of year... in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1115 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

PoPs decrease significantly Friday morning as a cold front pushes into the FA. A few showers remain possible through late morning/ early afternoon in northwest Arkansas, but additional rainfall is expected to remain light. Otherwise, skies gradually clear through the day, with most locations getting some sun before the day is over. As the low pressure system translates eastward, sfc high pressure expands into the southern plains with shortwave ridging aloft. This provides a quiet and dry day on Saturday, though temperatures will be cooler in the post-frontal environment (60s), with low level cloudiness expected across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

By Sunday, another Desert Southwest upper low is forecast to eject into the plains, bringing additional rain and thunderstorm chances to the region through Monday. Strong moisture advection brings a similar airmass back to the forecast area, with an increasing heavy rainfall threat. Current QPF projections suggest another 1-3 inches for much of the CWA Sunday and Monday. Today's rainfall totals will likely impact the extent of flood concerns going into early next week, but at least localized flash flooding does appear likely at this time. While severe potential cannot be ruled out, early indications suggest this system will have less instability to work with this far north, limiting overall chances.

This system will be departing with decreasing rain chances Monday night into Tuesday. Longwave troughing then settles into the central CONUS by mid week, with a strong cold front arriving Tuesday night or Wednesday. This will bring noticeably colder air into the region just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday (High temperatures in the 40s/ 50s, lows in the 20s and 30s). Long range guidance has hinted at the idea of some light precipitation accompanying the frontal passage for several runs now... and there is at least some potential for light rain or rain/snow mix Wednesday/ early Thursday. However, given uncertainty at this range, will hold PoPs just below mentionable. Looking further ahead, a more sustained period of colder temperatures appears possible going into December.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday morning will result in deteriorating flight conditions, with most locations seeing prevailing MVFR conditions by mid to late morning. Some heavier bands of showers or storms could result in periodic IFR conditions, which will become more prevalent later in the day Thursday. Signal still present for band of more intense convection possible mainly from southeast OK into west central AR late in the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 61 69 59 / 0 60 90 90 FSM 80 64 73 62 / 10 60 90 90 MLC 83 66 73 61 / 20 70 90 90 BVO 71 54 67 55 / 0 60 90 90 FYV 76 61 70 59 / 0 60 100 90 BYV 73 60 67 59 / 0 60 90 90 MKO 77 63 70 60 / 10 60 100 90 MIO 71 57 67 59 / 0 70 90 90 F10 78 63 70 59 / 10 60 100 90 HHW 83 66 74 61 / 20 80 90 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.