textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 - Limited severe potential into early Thursday morning across southeast OK and part of northwest AR. Locally heavy rainfall likely.

- Potentially more widespread severe weather threat may develop Friday into Saturday, with continued heavy rainfall potential.

- Unsettled weather returns early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday Night) Issued at 1234 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

As of early Thursday morning, the surface frontal boundary was nearly stationary from southern Pittsburg co to western Carroll co AR. Along and south of this boundary, dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s were common, while upper 40s to mid 50 dewpoints were reported to the north/northwest. Aloft, a 30-45KT low level jet was oriented from southwest to northeast over top the boundary, and ahead of a shortwave centered over Kansas moving toward the east/northeast. At the same time, the western portion of mostly elevated instability was positioned near the boundary and extended eastward into Arkansas. The combination of these features were aiding in the continuous development of showers and thunderstorms moving northeast across much of the CWA, with the bulk of the activity along and east/southeast of a line from McIntosh co to Benton co.

Through mid morning Thursday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop and spread northeast across much of the CWA while the boundary slowly begins to retreat northward. Through the overnight hours, elevated instability is progged to weaken while the low level jet core shifts east/northeast with the movement of the upper level trof axis. In response, a limited severe potential remains through the overnight hours along and southeast of the front. By mid morning Thursday, the front is forecast to become oriented more west to east near Interstate 40 and then lift northward into Kansas by early afternoon.

Also early to mid morning Thursday, with flow nearly parallel to the boundary, precipitable water values in the 99th percent- tile for March, and precip training over the same areas will continue a heavy rain threat that could lead to flooding concerns. The greater potential is across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, where rainfall amounts of a half inch to locally over 2.5 inches have already fallen within the past 24-hrs.

Once the shortwave exits and the boundary lifts north of the CWA, precip chances look to decrease Thursday afternoon/evening before increasing again across parts of eastern Oklahoma Thursday night. Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a dryline over the Panhandles Thursday afternoon/evening and could make a run toward eastern Oklahoma as the low level jet intensifies again with another low pressure system moving into the Desert Southwest U.S.

Temperatures through early Thursday morning look to remain nearly steady and then begin to warm behind the lifting front. High temperatures upper 60s to mid 70s should be common Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The upper level low pressure system moving into the Desert Southwest is progged to have a portion of its energy split off and push northeast into the Plains while the parent trof axis develops a cutoff low over the Baja during the weekend. With the wave moving out into the central Plains Friday and a deepening surface low lee of the Rockies, a cold front will push southeast and into the CWA Friday night. Ahead of the front, thunderstorm chances are forecast to be ongoing early Friday morning with storm potentials moving in from the west. A limited severe potential exists with this early activity. However the greater severe potential develops Friday afternoon into Friday night with storm redevelopment forecast over the CWA. Uncertainties remain with the severe potential due to cloud cover, the amount of storm coverage Friday morning, and just how quickly the cap can erode Friday afternoon. Though, warmer temperatures and gusty southerly flow transporting an increase in low level moisture into the region will aid instability to elevate severe potentials again for the CWA. Large hail, damaging wind, and also a tornado threat are possible. A heavy rain threat that could lead to additional flood concerns also exists through Friday night.

The cold front moves through Friday night and exits Saturday morning with precip chances finally tapering off during the day in southeast Oklahoma before the 850-mb front exits. Behind the front, surface high pressure filters over the region through Sunday and then exits Monday. Latest model solutions continue to indicate the cut off low making its way eastward through Texas Tuesday/Wednesday with another cold front dropping into the region Wednesday. Uncertainties exist with timing and precip potentials, though will increase PoPs again for this time fame.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Scattered showers and storms continue to impact terminals across western AR and KMLC in OK as a frontal boundary remains in place across the region. Expect this to continue with TEMPO forecast at these sites through at 10Z. Afterward, CAM guidance has shown activity decreasing some in areal coverage as main shortwave passes, however low level jet and boundary in place likely to keep some storm clusters going through daybreak. Backed off to Prob30 with uncertainty in coverage with stability increasing with time. Current MVFR-VFR ceilings expected to deteriorate at all terminals after 09Z. Maintained IFR/LIFR across sites through late morning Thursday with slow improvement through the afternoon. Again, low confidence in convection lingering along frontal boundary into the afternoon so left mention out of KMLC and KFSM TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 50 70 62 74 / 30 20 40 80 FSM 60 76 62 78 / 100 80 10 80 MLC 57 75 62 75 / 90 80 20 80 BVO 45 70 58 74 / 10 20 60 70 FYV 57 73 59 76 / 90 70 20 80 BYV 57 70 61 74 / 100 70 20 60 MKO 54 73 61 74 / 80 60 20 90 MIO 49 69 60 73 / 40 20 40 80 F10 53 73 61 74 / 70 60 30 90 HHW 62 76 62 76 / 90 80 20 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.