textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding are the main concerns in the near term as the unsettled weather pattern continues through Friday.

- Confidence remains high in the unsettled pattern persisting however timing and placement of strong storms and heaviest rains is less certain.

- A more typical summer time pattern expected to build over the region by early next week. Heat headlines will likely be needed.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Widespread convection during the day Tuesday has overturned the airmass across the local region and a relative lull in convection is expected through much of the overnight hours. 00z regional soundings sampled ample instability upstream of the forecast area and the low level jet is already intensifying with the more unstable airmass being advected back across the region overnight. Storms ongoing along the High Plains are likely to congeal into another thunderstorm complex and ESE and approach eastern OK by early to mid morning. While timing and overall coverage of convection varies amongst guidance as the MCS tracks eastward across the region, the overall pattern remains favorable for the complex to persist through the day along with associated heavy rainfall and some severe potential. The ongoing flood watch was extended through early afternoon with additional adjustments possible as the coverage and intensity of the convection becomes more certain.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The current timing of the departing MCS favors another lull in storm coverage Wednesday evening before another complex approaches the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Flow aloft will become more westerly by this time influencing a more east west track of this storm complex with precip chances adjusted accordingly across the forecast area. Timing and track of the storm complex and its associated outflow will be instrumental in the overall footprint of severe weather potential through Thursday night. Conditions south of the storms will become increasingly warm and humid with strong instability present should the southern flank and/or outflow become a more defined focus through Thursday night.

Sfc boundaries become more aligned west and north of the forecast area by Friday with hot and humid conditions building across the region. The proximity of focusing boundaries will maintain storm chances with some risk of severe weather, however the pattern will be transitioning toward rising heights and more stable conditions with a deepening west coast trough and downstream ridging across the southern states.

This weekend into early next week will feature high pressure aloft strengthening and centered east of the local region. Hot and humid conditions are expected to return with dangerous heat index values likely to develop daily for much of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Conditions will deteriorate overnight into early Wednesday morning as widespread low clouds and fog develop at all sites. IFR to LIFR conditions will be common until mid morning Wednesday, when conditions will improve to MVFR. While a few showers and thunderstorms may occur near and after sunrise, the main round of showers and storms will affect all terminals late Wednesday morning through the afternoon. VFR conditions will then return to all sites Wednesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 84 71 89 76 / 70 30 40 40 FSM 87 72 91 75 / 60 30 30 20 MLC 89 74 90 78 / 60 20 10 10 BVO 83 68 86 72 / 70 30 50 50 FYV 83 68 86 73 / 60 30 50 30 BYV 82 67 85 72 / 70 40 50 40 MKO 84 70 88 75 / 60 30 30 30 MIO 82 68 85 72 / 50 30 50 60 F10 86 71 89 76 / 70 30 20 20 HHW 89 73 91 76 / 40 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ049-053-055>057- 059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-254-354.

AR...None.