textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Hot and humid weather persists through the week. Heat advisory headlines are in effect today and Wednesday for portions of the area, and may be needed in the days following.

- Low chances for afternoon storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR Thursday and Friday. Low storm chances continue with a weak front Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

High pressure remains in control across the forecast area with hot, humid, and breezy conditions in place. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 90s, with heat indices of 95-105 F across the area. A portion of west-central AR along the Arkansas River remains in a Heat Advisory this afternoon where the heat potential is highest. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear with no chance of rain. Overnight tonight, temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s. Winds will remain breezy and out of the south.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The same general pattern will remain in place Wednesday with high temperatures again rising to the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 95-105 F. The Heat Advisory was also reissued for the same portion of west-central AR that had one today. Breezy south winds will persist. By Thursday and Friday, the upper level high will begin to shift eastward. This will allow upper level heights to dip slightly along with presumably somewhat reduced subsidence. Most guidance shows the potential for a few afternoon showers and storms over the higher terrain of eastern OK and northwest AR. If storms do develop, they would be characterized by gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain. However, coverage will be sparse, so overall these two days will just be a continuation of the pattern we are already experiencing, with widespread heat and humidity.

By Saturday and Sunday additional weakening of the upper level heights is expected with a few subtle shortwaves moving through. At the surface, this will yield little change for the majority of the area, if anything the surface may warm slightly. However, model guidance indicates there will also be a marginal uptick in storms Saturday across the higher terrain of eastern OK and northwest AR. A weak boundary will then impinge on the area Sunday, with a 10-30% chance of showers and storms for all locations. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with mid to upper 90s likely.

Heading into early next week, the pattern will remain hot, humid, and mostly dry. However, there will be enough weakness in the ridge to allow a few transient shortwaves through, with the potential for daily isolated showers and storms (10-30% chance).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all sites. Breezy south-southwest winds persist this afternoon before becoming light out of the south-southeast overnight. A period of LLWS is expected again tonight for NE OK sites. Sfc winds increase again Wednesday morning and afternoon. Occasional high clouds will continue to drift over the region through the period, with FEW to SCT low cloud (2500-3500 ft) possible again Wednesday morning/ early afternoon, especially in SE OK and NW AR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 77 94 78 95 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 76 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 78 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 76 93 76 94 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 75 92 75 92 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 73 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 75 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 F10 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 75 93 75 93 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ129-219-220.