textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 507 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A potent arctic front will bring life threatening cold to the area beginning Friday night, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected Friday through Sunday morning, bringing climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the entire forecast area.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts will linger for several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Tranquil weather will proceed overnight tonight and through the daytime Thursday, with no impacts due to weather expected. High clouds will begin to increase after midnight tonight, becoming broken or overcast by daybreak Thursday. Winds will remain generally light through the period despite a very weak frontal boundary moving into northeast OK and far northwest AR after midnight tonight. The front will not amount to much of anything and will wash-out by mid-morning. Winds will eventually veer from the northeast to the east or east-southeast around midday midday as surface high pressure shifts east of the area and becomes elongated. As for temperatures...Thursday will be the warmest day for at least a full week, perhaps longer, with afternoon high temperatures reaching the low-mid 50s. Be sure to enjoy the warmth outside while it lasts.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Forecast remains on track for a robust and high-impact winter storm to affect eastern OK and western AR beginning late Thursday night through Sunday afternoon. It is worth noting that this forecast will likely continue to be adjusted over the next couple of days as newer model data comes in. Precipitation totals and timing will change.

A strong Arctic cold front will move across the region late Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures are forecast to steadily fall through the daytime Friday, with temperatures falling below freezing before noon for most areas north of I-40 and elsewhere by sunset. Winds behind the front will remain gusty through the daytime Friday, with gusts up to 35 mph. In turn, this will make temperatures feel even colder as wind chill values hover in the single digits and teens going into Friday night. The frontal boundary will initially bring in some very dry air near the surface. Models and ensembles still clash with regards to precipitation onset timing, partly due to the dry, sub-cloud layer. With that said, there may be a few locations, especially south of I-40, where full saturation to the surface occurs Friday morning/afternoon and light precipitation (with minor accumulations of rain, freezing rain, and sleet) is possible.

There is much better agreement in models that indicate a couple of upper-level waves of heavier and more impactful precipitation, with the first wave arriving late Friday afternoon and into the evening as low-level moisture surges into the area ahead of an approaching shortwave trough moving onshore from Baja California. Though there are still some differences in model data, this first wave should linger through late morning Saturday before exiting to the east. A lull in heavy precipitation is expected thereafter, with spotty and periodic light precipitation falling through the afternoon Saturday. A second upper-level wave is anticipated to impact and bring additional widespread heavy wintry precipitation beginning Saturday evening and will continue through much of the daytime Sunday before the entire storm system exits to the east.

Confidence is medium-high that precipitation north of I-40 will fall mainly as snow through the entire event from start to finish. However, forecast soundings from a few of the latest deterministic forecast models show a warm nose in place between I-40 and Highway 412, leaving a low chance of sleet mixing in with snow as far north as Highway 412 through the daytime Saturday. Snowfall totals, which do include sleet amounts, likely will not be impacted too much as the more dominate precipitation type should be snow north of I-40. Still, half an inch of sleet will still be possible. Precipitation types along and south of I-40 will be a lot more messy, with a more pronounced warm nose in place most of this event. Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will all be probable at some point, especially across far southeast OK and closer to the Red River. As far as total snow/sleet/ice amounts, current thinking remains mostly the same as the previous forecast. In general, 8 to 12 inches of snow (with some sleet mixed in), locally higher, is still expected north of I-40 through Sunday afternoon. South of I-40, a mixture of sleet and snow is expected to total between 4 to 6 inches. Additionally, ice amounts near the Red River have increased some, with totals to near half an inch in Choctaw and Pushmataha counties possible. However, there is very low confidence on the ice amounts at this time. It is possible that much of this could fall as sleet instead of ice. The Winter Storm Watch that is currently in effect for all of the CWA will likely be upgraded to a warning tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will be extremely and dangerously cold Friday through the beginning part of next week, given snowfall amounts and accumulations. An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect from midnight Saturday until noon Sunday. Daytime highs will be in the single digits and teens Saturday and Sunday. The coldest period of the long-term will be Sunday night into Monday morning when clouds begin to clear and winds begin to die down. A deep snowpack will essentially keep temperature well below than what forecast models are suggesting. A gradual warm-up will occur Monday into Tuesday when southerly winds return, with mostly dry weather into midweek.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with passing high cloud and light wind. The initial signs of moisture return ahead of the big winter storm will show up as an increase in low-end VFR cigs coming up from the south at KMLC tonight. Also, toward the very end of the forecast just before daybreak Friday morning, the Arctic cold front arrives at the NE OK sites, with NErly wind gusts in excess of 20 kts possible.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 53 25 25 9 / 0 0 10 90 FSM 54 31 38 18 / 0 0 10 90 MLC 57 32 38 16 / 0 10 30 100 BVO 51 18 22 6 / 0 0 10 90 FYV 54 24 31 11 / 0 0 10 90 BYV 48 24 26 9 / 0 0 10 90 MKO 53 30 34 13 / 0 0 20 100 MIO 51 21 22 5 / 0 0 10 90 F10 55 30 32 11 / 0 10 20 100 HHW 53 37 41 21 / 0 10 50 100

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.