textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists today into Wednesday.

- Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of precipitation.

- Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is expected during the day Friday to Saturday before cooler air arrives behind a cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Warm and humid southerly flow remains in place across the area. Southerly winds will continue to gust to 25-35 mph today. High temperatures will remain well above normal (in the 80s). As upper level winds/lift from a positively tilted trough spread across the dry line later today, thunderstorms are expected to develop over central Oklahoma. These storms will then move northeast into the area.

Initial storm formation will probably be in the late afternoon, moving into the forecast area during the evening. Most CAMs quickly show upscale growth into a line, or perhaps a few lines. This implies that an initial severe hail dominant threat will shift to wind dominant with time. This makes sense given the very large instability and favorable dynamics for robust cold pool development. A couple of tornados are also possible, particularly early on before cold pools become mature. Of course, if storms remain discrete for longer or into the evening when the LLJ ramps up, the tornado threat could end up higher than it currently appears. With continued forcing along the dry line, additional rounds of showers and storms are possible overnight. These storms may also be severe, but the threat will generally decline with time as well as the further east you go. Locally heavy rain may also occur. For these later rounds, the threat may start to sag south and east, but generally still in the northwest half of the forecast area. Low temperatures overnight will be in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Warm and humid southerly flow will persist Wednesday, with the best lift from an approaching trough moving overhead. CAM guidance is fairly messy on Wednesday with multiple rounds of weaker storms developing through the day across the forecast area. The CAMS finally develop stronger storms in the afternoon and evening hours. It storms are too widespread and frequent earlier during the day, it could suppress severe weather in the evening. With that said, ample moisture, shear, and instability are all present. The potential is certainly there for severe weather even if failure modes also exist. Most likely, hail and wind will be the dominant threats, but like today, an couple of tornados remain possible as well.

Upper level forcing will move east on Thursday with a reprieve from the stormy conditions. Highs will reach the mid 80s with humid and breezy conditions remaining in place. A strong cold front will push through the area Friday night into Saturday. The airmass will be quite moist and unstable. Hodographs look to be long and mostly straight. Given that the shear vector will be roughly parallel to the frontal forcing, storms should consolidate into lines, with damaging wind being the primary hazard. But since this is a few days away, this is just speculation for now. Much cooler and drier conditions are expected Sunday into early next week behind the front.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Thunderstorm impacts are likely at all terminals except FSM, with the main threat windows for NE OK this evening and again early Wed morning, for NW AR early Wed morning and for MLC mid to late Wed morning. IFR conditions and potential for VRB gusty winds will be most likely at the NE OK sites this evening. MVFR ceilings will expand Wed morning across all terminals, with a low chance of IFR in NW AR that is not mentioned for now. Gusty prevailing winds will exist at most sites through the entire period, with FSM the most likely to see more typical lower wind speeds and easterly directions overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 65 78 61 86 / 80 70 70 10 FSM 67 80 64 85 / 60 50 90 20 MLC 66 77 64 85 / 70 70 70 10 BVO 64 79 56 85 / 80 70 70 10 FYV 63 76 61 82 / 60 70 90 20 BYV 65 76 61 82 / 60 60 90 30 MKO 64 76 62 84 / 70 70 80 10 MIO 64 76 60 82 / 80 70 80 10 F10 65 77 62 85 / 70 70 70 10 HHW 65 78 64 84 / 40 60 70 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.