textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Low-medium thunderstorm chances continue Thursday and again Friday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible with any stronger storms. Severe weather not expected.

- Drier and hotter conditions return by this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected yet again this afternoon, albeit with less coverage than Wednesday. While low PoPs will exist areawide, greatest storm coverage is expected across S OK this afternoon. Here, ongoing convection in TX is forecast to move north into the area with new development possible as it enters SE/S-Central OK. These storms will continue to expand northward toward NE OK before diminishing by late evening. As has been the case, severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible. Faster storm motions should reduce the flash flood threat compared to yesterday. While mostly dry conditions are expected overnight, a few showers cannot be ruled out as another area of vorticity (associated with the mid- upper low) passes over the area. Low temperatures will be similar to Wednesday night...perhaps a couple degrees warmer...in the lower-mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The area will be in the western fringes of high pressure by Friday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible again, though coverage should lessen somewhat as heights begin to increase. In general, 15-30 percent PoPs were maintained areawide Friday afternoon and early evening. Precipitation likely concludes with loss of daytime heating. Mid-upper level ridging strengthens through the weekend with increasing S-SW sfc flow providing increasing temperatures. Once dewpoint values are factored in, heat indices are forecast to again exceed 100-105 degrees for parts of the area early next week. A few model solutions try to bring a shortwave and associated frontal boundary close to the area by mid next week, which could result in slightly lower temperatures and perhaps additional precipitation chances. However, even in these scenarios, ridging stays close by and any reprieve may be short lived. The latest NBM keeps PoPs below mentionable levels with high temperatures in the mid-upper 90s during this time, which seems reasonable for now.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Scattered showers have expanded through south central OK and are expected to expand further north and east through the afternoon. Overall coverage through the afternoon seems best handled by probability groups with adjustments as needed for short term trends. VFR conditions will prevail outside of influences from heavier convection. Storms diminish after sunset with low confidence in any placement of overnight fog potential. Showers and storms on Friday more likely beyond this forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 91 76 95 / 20 20 10 10 FSM 73 93 75 96 / 20 20 10 10 MLC 73 91 75 93 / 20 20 10 10 BVO 71 90 74 94 / 10 20 10 10 FYV 70 89 72 91 / 10 20 10 10 BYV 70 89 72 92 / 10 20 10 10 MKO 72 89 74 92 / 20 20 10 10 MIO 71 89 73 92 / 10 20 10 10 F10 71 89 73 92 / 20 20 10 10 HHW 72 89 73 92 / 20 20 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.