textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Oppressively hot and dry weather will persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend.

- Rain chances are unlikely through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Wednesday is anticipated to be almost a carbon copy of Tuesday... hot, humid, rain-free, and breezy in the afternoon. A deepening trough along the West Coast has already began shoving the upper- level ridge, that was situated over the Desert Southwest, eastward. The ridge axis will drift overhead and flatten during the afternoon hours before shifting east of the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Closer to the surface, lee troughing will persist, peaking during the mid-late afternoon hours and resulting in breezy southerly winds with occasional gusts 25-30 mph, strongest across northeast OK. Afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday will max out in the upper 90s and lower 100s again, with heat indices climbing between 105 to 110 F. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties and forecast zones across eastern OK and northwest AR through the entire short- term period.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

A hot and humid, persistent forecast will be the main takeaway through at least the remainder of the workweek, perhaps even beyond. Expect daily afternoon temperatures maxing out in the upper 90s and lower 100s, with heat indices hovering between 105 and 110 F, each afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire forecast area from now through 8 PM Friday.

The incessant ridge will hold steady over the southern/southeastern CONUS through the remainder of the week and into this upcoming weekend, keeping the jet stream and any significant rain chances well north of the area through the long- term. The ridge will gradually restrengthen over the Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, with models showing a 598-600 decameter ridge by Friday evening/night. Guidance then shows the center of the ridge retrograding westward and overhead late in the weekend and into early next week. In theory, this would likely be some of the hottest days of the year, but this will also be highly dependent on exact position and strength of the ridge as it moves overhead. Medium-range models continue suggesting a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary, that will be draped across the Central Plains late in the week, will sag south and push into far northeast OK late Sunday night and into Monday morning, with the front pushing farther south through the day Monday. However, trends in the forecast models over the last few days of this front have been unreliable and inconsistent. Will have better details and a better grasp of how this evolves by the end of the week. For now, the oppressive heat looks to continue through the long-term period.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Southerly winds will continue through the TAF period, with stronger speeds during the daytime hours with gusts to 15-25 kts. Skies will be mostly clear except for a few high clouds and some diurnal cumulus in the 6-8 kft layer. Low level shear will be present across northeast OK tonight and again Wednesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 103 83 103 83 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 103 80 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 102 81 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 104 79 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 99 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 101 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 101 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 F10 102 79 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 98 79 97 77 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053-055>071- 073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119- 120-129-219-220-229.