textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Unsettled weather persists through into next weekend. There will be multiple opportunities for heavy rainfall and some severe weather.

- Confidence remains high with the unsettled pattern however confidence is much lower in specific timing and placement for higher storm chances.

- Below average temperatures are forecast this work week, returning above average this upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Stalled boundary extending from SW OK through NE TX is the ongoing focus for showers and storms and this activity is likely to gradually spread into far SE OK through early morning. A brief strong storm is possible through sunrise. The low level jet will become more southerly and strengthen overnight with resultant upglide north of the aforementioned boundary serving to increase shower and storm chances early in the day across portions of E OK though coverage is uncertain. The coverage and duration of early day convection will influence the expanding unstable corridor associated with the lifting warm front. This frontal zone will likely orient the higher storm chances NW to SE across the western half of the forecast area with lesser chances further east. While storms are likely to grow upscale into one or more complexes Tuesday through Tuesday night there remains considerable uncertainty on placement and intensity.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The northwesterly flow aloft will persist into Wednesday night and maintain a favorable pattern for additional thunderstorm complexes to track across the region. Again the favored corridor will be influenced by prior days activity so precip chances remain rather broad at this point. The flow aloft becomes slightly more westerly by Thursday with a stronger wave passing across the central Plains and higher storm chances will be shown across the northern portion of the forecast area through Thursday night. The trailing cold front from the Thursday wave may become a focus across the region on Friday, however rising mid level heights are expected as the pattern features stronger troughing to the west and downstream ridging into the southern Plains. This would mark a reprieve from the near daily MCS pattern and generally trend hotter and drier for early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Mainly MVFR ceilings will prevail through the day today, with some IFR ceilings at the far northwest Arkansas sites this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, mainly this afternoon and early evening. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR this evening, but will lower back to IFR in most places by late tonight as low clouds and some fog redevelop.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 85 71 86 72 / 50 60 40 50 FSM 86 71 87 73 / 30 50 50 40 MLC 88 73 90 75 / 60 60 30 30 BVO 83 69 84 69 / 30 50 40 60 FYV 84 68 83 69 / 20 50 50 50 BYV 82 66 83 68 / 10 50 50 60 MKO 84 70 85 72 / 40 60 40 40 MIO 84 68 84 69 / 20 40 50 60 F10 86 70 87 72 / 60 60 40 30 HHW 87 73 91 74 / 60 60 30 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.