textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 635 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Thunderstorm chances continue into Sunday evening with an isolated strong to severe potential.

- Temps near to above mid May normals forecast for the week ahead with low rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

As of early afternoon Sunday, a frontal boundary was positioned southwest to northeast across northeast Oklahoma and about to reach far northwest Arkansas. Along and southward from the boundary, dewpoints in the 60s were common, while dewpoints in the 40s/50s were reported to the north. At the same time, marginal instability over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas resided southwest of the boundary, maximized over western Arkansas ahead of the ongoing rain showers moving through the CWA. The eastern progression of these showers had been slow due to a drier layer of air between the surface and the base of the clouds. Temperatures has warmed little with 60s common underneath the rain and lower 70s out ahead of the rain in northwest Arkansas. These temperatures are not anticipated to warm all that much more with the cloud cover.

Through the afternoon hours, the ongoing showers are expected to continue to move east and southeast while the frontal boundary slowly sags southeastward. Thunderstorm chances remain probable, mainly over far southeast Oklahoma, closer to a lead surface boundary, and also within the slightly greater instability over northwest Arkansas. Any storm development within northwest Arkansas could have a window for an isolated strong to severe potential with strong winds being the primary threat. This window looks to close off by early evening once the front pushes through.

Rain chances this evening become mainly confined to south of Interstate 40, and then should exit overnight tonight as a mid/upper level shortwave, currently over the central Plains, slides through the region. Behind the upper trof axis, cloud cover should begin to scatter out which will help low temperatures tonight range from the 40s along the Kansas border to upper 50s/near 60 deg along the Red River.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Surface high pressure moves over the CWA Monday with light winds and afternoon temperatures in the 70s forecast. Upper level northwesterly flow aloft continues Tuesday with another low pressure system progged to push through Plains into the Great Lakes region. A trailing associated frontal boundary remains forecast to approach and move into the CWA Tuesday night. Ahead of the boundary, low shower/storm chances develop Tuesday evening and overnight for mainly far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. The greater instability and precip potentials look to remain northeast of the CWA, closer to the surface low and stronger vorticity.

Ridge of high pressure sets up over the southern Plains Wednesday/Thursday and then begins to shift eastward Friday. In response, a warming trend Wednesday continues into the weekend, with above seasonal average temperatures Friday and Saturday aided by the return of gusty southerly winds. A couple disturbances try to lift northeast along the western periphery of the ridge Friday through the weekend which could allow for shower and thunderstorm chances. Uncertainty remains with timing and track of the waves, thus for now will continue some slight chance PoPs for parts of the CWA.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

MVFR CIGS MLC expected to improve next few hours, becoming VFR 03-06z. Otherwise, all sites VFR this forecast period with mid cloud CIGS, becoming high cloud CIGS tonight. Light showers over nwrn AR will continue to push east next couple hours, with no impact to terminals expected. Some guidance indicates low probability for fog nwrn AR sites late tonight, but given cloud cover expected, impactful fog potential too low to mention at this time. Light northerly wind behind front this evening/overnight, becomes east to southeast on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 50 78 55 83 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 57 79 54 84 / 30 0 0 0 MLC 56 79 54 83 / 30 0 0 0 BVO 43 78 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 50 78 52 81 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 49 76 52 80 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 52 78 53 81 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 47 77 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 F10 52 77 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 60 77 55 80 / 50 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.