textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Reinforcing cold front Thursday with cooler weather through the weekend. Frost/freeze headlines likely needed.

- Rain chances return late in the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1012 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A cold front has moved through most of northeast Oklahoma by mid morning and will continue to push south and east through the day, likely clearing southeast Oklahoma by mid afternoon. As expected, north to northwest winds behind the front have increased, with current gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range. This gustiness should continue through the afternoon, especially in parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with a corresponding limited fire spread threat as dew points fall later today. With the drier air in place, another round of fog is not expected, despite light winds overnight.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1012 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A stronger push of cold air remains on deck for Thursday, helping to increase the northerly winds again, particularly across far northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. This colder air will lead to widespread frost potential Thursday night into Friday morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, along with patchy frost that extends as far south as McAlester, Wilburton and Poteau. While frost/freeze headlines will not be issued at the moment, a frost mention has been added to the forecast. Highs on Friday may struggle to reach 50 degrees in parts of northwest Arkansas, with afternoon temperatures around 10 degrees below seasonal normals despite plenty of sun. Friday night and Saturday morning may actually be the coolest morning for most areas, with another round of frost extending into southeast Oklahoma now mentioned in the forecast.

Southeasterly winds make a return on Saturday ahead of another storm system. Increased cloudiness and the easterly wind component will lead to only a modest warm up for most areas, with temperatures overall remaining below normal. Mid level moisture associated with the storm system looks to really begin to increase Saturday night into Sunday morning, leading to a corresponding increase in the potential for rain after midnight. The amount of dry air in the low levels may lead to a delayed onset in measurable rain initially. Rain chances will peak during the day Sunday and decrease from west to east Sunday night into early Monday as the storm system quickly shifts east. The rainy daytime conditions on Sunday will keep temperatures chilly areawide, with gusty winds making things feel even worse. Temperatures begin to warm early to mid week ahead of another system to the west. This system will bring the next chance of rain mid week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Mostly clear to passing high clouds along with west to northerly winds are expected tonight behind the cold front that move through today. During the day Thursday, a secondary disturbance with an increase in northerly winds is forecast to move southeast through the region. As this disturbance moves through Thursday afternoon, few to scattered cloud cover in the 7-10kft range looks to develop. VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 44 65 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 46 66 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 42 66 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 42 64 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 41 60 29 51 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 42 57 32 49 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 42 63 33 54 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 42 60 30 51 / 0 0 0 0 F10 44 66 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 47 72 41 63 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.