textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1051 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026 - Much above average temperatures and dry weather continues into Saturday ahead of a strong cold front.

- Low humidity, marginal winds and very dry vegetation will maintain a limited fire weather threat into the weekend.

- A pattern change next week will bring periodic rain and thunderstorm chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1051 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A surface low has settled south of the Red River this evening leaving a pool of higher dewpoints and easterly winds across far southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, winds across the area were generally variable or light southeast south of a stationary front stretching from a second surface low over central Kansas into southern Missouri. Regional radar showed scattered showers north of the stationary front with the Geostationary Lightning Mapper detecting flashes south of Kansas City. A shortwave trough digging across Kansas will move into northern Arkansas overnight aiding maintenance of the shower activity, however, dry air between 850 and 700 mb will keep any precip very light as it moves across the northeast corner of the CWA. A second shortwave will drop further west across Kansas into northern Oklahoma by late in the day Thursday accompanied by scattered high level clouds. High pressure moving in with this second wave will drive a weak cold front south of the area this afternoon leaving low humidity and occasionally gusty winds in its wake. Despite the lower fire spread rates, a limited wildfire threat will continue given above normal temperatures, low humidity and dense, dry vegetation in place across the area.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1051 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Surface high pressure moves east on Friday and winds will increase out of the south-southwest with gusts back near 20 mph across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. These conditions will maintain at least limited fire weather concerns, primarily focused along and north of Hwy 412 and west of US 75. Even warmer and more widespread gusty conditions are expected on Saturday as 850 mb flow turns more to the southwest and increases. Dewpoints will increase with time also, first across southern and central Oklahoma on Saturday leaving a window for increased wildfire concerns especially across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. By Saturday night another frontal boundary will advance into the area. This front will likely be stronger and bring an increase in rain and thunderstorm chances into Sunday as the flow aloft begins to flatten some and a shortwave traverses the area.

Confidence in temperatures is low on Sunday as guidance remains split on how far south the shallow cold air will make it. The latest blended guidance has dropped temperatures into the 50s across northern Oklahoma with 70s generally confined south of I-40. A sharp gradient can be expected in temperatures on Sunday with further refinements in temperatures and highest PoP location in coming days. The pattern change continues to evolve Sunday night into Tuesday as a closed low is forecast to dig into the Desert Southwest. Deterministic and ensemble guidance support an unsettled weather pattern will persist into the middle of next week with periodic rain and thunderstorm chances across the Southern Great Plains. Temperatures through the period look to return closer to seasonal normals Monday and Tuesday before getting a bump warmer as moist, southerly flow increases ahead of the approaching storm system.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will go light and variable tonight as a boundary approaches and moves through the region. With calm winds and increased moisture over the region some areas of fog may develop across W AR and SE OK sites, though confidence isn't high at the moment. Also a few sprinkles or very light showers will be possible along the boundary, but left out of mention as any terminal impacts are not expected. There is also a low to medium chance of some MVFR cigs across W AR and SE OK as well ahead of the boundary. Otherwise, winds go northerly overnight through tomorrow but remain generally less than 10 knots through the period. SCT to BKN mid and high cloud will also continue into tomorrow.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 46 71 42 78 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 49 76 43 77 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 48 76 43 78 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 40 70 35 78 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 44 71 38 75 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 46 67 40 74 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 48 73 42 76 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 44 67 40 75 / 20 0 0 0 F10 48 73 43 78 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 51 76 46 75 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.