textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Cold front moving through today will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normals for this weekend.

- Increasing rain chances again late weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary concern.

- After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions forecast through the holiday week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tonight) Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The rain has all exited the area this morning, with clearing skies occurring over much of the region. A cold front currently extends from north central Oklahoma through southwest Oklahoma. This front will progress across the forecast area throughout the rest of the day today, bringing cooler temperatures and drier air in its wake. Temperatures ahead of the front this afternoon will likely still rise into the 70s, with the warmest temps across SE OK and WC AR where the front will be later to arrive. Across northeast Oklahoma temperatures are forecast to rise a few more degrees into the upper 60s to near 70 before frontal passage keeps temps nearly steady or slowly falling through the rest of the afternoon. A stray light shower or two could develop along the front this afternoon, as well as along the OK/KS border near the center of the upper low. Any rain totals will be negligible though if anything does develop. Cooler overnight lows are expected tonight, generally in the mid 40s for most locations as cloud cover fills back in on the backside of the exiting upper low keeping them from falling further.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Pleasant conditions will follow the frontal passage for Saturday and most of the day Sunday as subtle mid level ridging builds over the Plains in advance of the next system. Areas of fog will be possible Saturday night/Sunday morning under the surface ridge axis. Another upper low will lift northeast out of the southwest CONUS and across the Plains by late Sunday into Monday. The result will be increasing cloud cover and rain chances from Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. The low continues to trend northward with the track and thus, widespread precip totals have come down some from previous forecasts. Still widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast Sunday night into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main concern, particularly across southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas where more convection could occur owing to higher instability. Better synoptic ascent associated with the entrance region of the upper jet will also overlap this area, and some training of storms will be possible Sunday night into Monday morning. Lighter precipitation is expected north of I-40, with totals decreasing drastically as you get to the OK/KS border as the mid level dry slot works into northeast Oklahoma. Widespread totals ranging from one quarter inch(north) to 1.5"(south) will be common with locally higher amounts of 3 plus inches possible across SE OK and WC AR by Monday afternoon. On the heels of heavy precipitation this week, more runoff could lead to more flash flooding or river flood potential where the heaviest rains occur.

Following the system on Monday a generally quiet rest of the holiday week looks to be in store. A series of cold fronts will keep temperatures near normal through the period, with any rain chances remaining non-mentionable at this point.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Latest surface obs show most TAF sites have improved to VFR over the last couple of hours. Anticipate VFR to prevail through the remainder of the afternoon. A couple of dry cold fronts will push through the area today. The first will veer winds from southwest to west early-mid afternoon. The second boundary will push through late this afternoon or this evening, veering winds out of the west-northwest or northwest. MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings are forecast to develop behind the secondary boundary by this evening into the overnight hours. Low ceilings will persist through much of the morning on Saturday, as well.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 47 61 43 65 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 50 65 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 46 63 44 69 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 44 60 38 64 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 47 60 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 49 59 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 48 60 45 65 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 47 59 42 64 / 10 0 0 0 F10 46 61 44 65 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 46 64 46 67 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.