textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1153 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Low-medium chance of storms this evening and overnight...with low-end potential for large hail and gusty winds.

- Hot and humid this afternoon area-wide, and potentially south of I-40 Thursday with HI values near 105 in some spots.

- A cooler and unsettled pattern returns Thursday and Friday, with a low end risk of severe weather and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

- Additional storm chances develop over the weekend and into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Windy hot and humid conditions remain in the forecast for today with a corridor of low-nid 70s dew points covering the local area. Continuing to monitor dew point trends for a potential heat advisory for a portion of northeast OK where temps already in the upper 80s and HI inching toward 100 presently NW of Tulsa. In this same general corridor, will continue to see widespread gusts in the 35-40 mph range flirting with wind advisory as well. The wind will take a bit of the edge off the anticipated heat as noted by previous shift, but should temps and/or dew points outpace current expectations, a short-fused heat advisory will be needed.

By evening a frontal boundary will approach northeast OK and possibly far northwest AR tonight. Current trends continue to support at least scattered convection near the boundary as it approaches, with sufficient deep layer shear to support some degree of organization. As such there is a small risk of large hail or damaging wind for storms that can sustain this evening. Potentially, at least, storms could persist into tonight though most likely in a weakened state.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The above mentioned front will push through at least the northern half of the area by Thursday afternoon, with notably cooler air in it's wake. CAM solutions vary on how much convection will accompany the front Thursday as it moves south but at least scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms seem plausible, with additional potential for thunderstorms along the boundary during the later afternoon. Areas that remain south of the front will be hot once again, with a few spots potentially seeing heat indices in the 100-105 range, while areas to the north will be considerably cooler. Present forecast will side with high temps a bit higher than the NBM mean, more toward the 50th percentile, but more persistent showers could hold temps well below 80 much of the day in northeast OK.

Recent trends in model guidance would favor an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage Thursday night, particularly north of the surface front and along the 850 mb boundary. Given the PWAT values above 90th percentile and possible resurgence of elevated instability, some severe storms remain possible as shear remains relatively strong. Heavy rainfall threat will also increase during this period, likely more focused to the south of Highway 412. Rain and thunderstorms will continue into part of Friday while gradually shifting south and east, with some renewal of convection possible Friday afternoon.

The pattern remains active for the foreseeable future with the absence of strong ridging noted in the extended range. Rain and storm chances continue to varying degrees through next week, with potential for a more substantial round of convection indicated for Sunday into Monday with another cold front. Heavy to excessive rainfall threat will persist along with severe weather with daytime temperatures held largely in check, outside of Sunday ahead of approaching front.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Few to broken mid level diurnal cumulus clouds remain common across the CWA this afternoon, as well as southerly winds gusting 25-35KT. This evening a frontal boundary is progged to be sagging southward toward the CWA, which could allow for convection developing along the boundary to reach into far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas in a weakening state. The greater potential for showers and thunderstorms is forecast late tonight and Thursday morning, and will continue with Prob30/VCSH for timing of greater potential over the northern half of the CWA. Also late tonight into Thursday morning, MVFR ceilings are forecast to spread northward to meet the southward moving front. By late in the period much of CWA is forecast to begin lifting back to low end VFR ceilings. Winds tonight subside and become more variable with the boundary moving in, and then transition to more of a north to east component Thursday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 93 75 82 68 / 0 20 60 60 FSM 93 76 92 72 / 0 0 20 70 MLC 92 77 92 73 / 0 0 10 80 BVO 93 71 78 64 / 0 50 60 50 FYV 89 73 84 66 / 0 20 50 60 BYV 88 71 81 65 / 0 50 60 60 MKO 91 75 86 69 / 0 20 30 60 MIO 90 70 79 64 / 0 70 60 40 F10 91 75 87 68 / 0 10 20 80 HHW 90 75 91 75 / 0 0 0 70

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.