textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1219 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Warming trend continues with unseasonably warm temperatures and gusty south winds expected through Tuesday. This will raise fire weather concerns once again.

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances mid to late week, with periods of heavy rain potential, and possibly severe weather.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Another windy and unseasonably warm day is on tap Monday, with afternoon high temperatures warming well into the 80s to near 90 degrees. Gusty south winds will once again raise fire weather concerns despite humidity values remaining above critical levels. Have issued a fire danger statement for the entire forecast area for Monday afternoon, and have also issued a wind advisory for areas near and northwest of Interstate 44 from 10 am-9 pm Monday, where a few gusts near or just above 40 miles an hour look likely, similar to what occurred Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Warm and windy conditions will continue Tuesday, but with some increase in cloud cover perhaps knocking both temperatures and peak wind gusts back slightly. Will maintain low pops near the Kansas border for late Tuesday afternoon, but the better storm chances will hold off until later Tuesday evening and overnight.

A frontal boundary will likely stall near or north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border Tuesday evening through Wednesday, but showers and storms that develop near the boundary will likely drift into at least parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday night into Wednesday. An upper level disturbance will enhance shower and storm development by Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday morning, with locally heavy rainfall and at least a low severe weather threat possible.

After a brief break late Thursday and early Friday, the next storm system will bring another round of showers and storms late Friday into early Saturday. Once again, locally heavy rainfall and severe storms will be possible. Once this system passes, cooler and drier conditions will prevail for the latter half of next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the period for all sites. LLWS persists into the early daylight hours before waning and southerly sfc winds increase significantly. Gusts in excess of 30 kts will be possible through the afternoon, especially across NE OK sites. Winds remain breezy into the evening with a strengthening LLJ providing LLWS again late in the forecast period. There is a low chance of lower ceilings working into SE OK and NW AR this morning, otherwise FEW to SCT high clouds will be possible areawide, especially late in the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 87 67 86 63 / 0 0 10 50 FSM 87 61 87 63 / 0 0 0 20 MLC 84 64 84 65 / 0 0 0 30 BVO 89 65 87 59 / 0 0 20 70 FYV 84 62 84 61 / 0 0 0 30 BYV 82 64 82 64 / 0 0 10 30 MKO 85 64 85 63 / 0 0 0 40 MIO 84 65 83 62 / 0 0 20 60 F10 84 64 83 64 / 0 0 10 40 HHW 83 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>057-059>062-064.

AR...None.