textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Fall-like temperatures trend above average by mid to late week.

- Rain is not expected through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday tonight ) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Surface high pressure across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Monday early afternoon is expected to reside over the region into Tuesday morning before high pressure center pushes off to the east. In response, mostly clear to passing high clouds along with light winds are forecast into Tuesday for the CWA. Early Tuesday morning, an isolated potential for some patchy areas of reduced visibility exists for parts of far eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

Temperatures warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Low temperatures, like early this morning, should again fall into the 50s for most locations. The normal cool spots, could again dip down into the upper 40s early Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The western periphery of surface high pressure looks to hold over a portion of the CWA into Wednesday. At the same time broad mid/upper level ridge of high pressure expands eastward into the southern Plains, and then flattens out for the second half of the week. Underneath mid/upper high pressure, low level winds still look to remain generally light, though more out of a southerly to easterly direction into the weekend. Temperatures should respond with afternoon high temperatures above the seasonal average through the end of the forecast period.

Model solutions continue to differ late weekend with a disturbance currently in the southwest portion of the Gulf progged to lift north/northeast. However, latest trends have been to keep this disturbance east of the CWA. Thus, will continue PoPs below mentionable criteria late weekend and continue to monitor data through the week. In other words, no significant rainfall is forecast for the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

There is low to medium confidence that brief patchy fog may develop again at KFYV around sunrise Tuesday morning. Included a TEMPO group at the site for this potential scenario. Otherwise, VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period with mostly clear skies. Surface winds stay light, but will gradually veer from northeast/east to south by Tuesday morning.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 81 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 84 56 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 82 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 80 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 81 49 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 81 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 81 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 79 51 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 F10 81 55 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 84 57 83 56 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.