textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 - Very hot conditions through Wednesday followed by some slight cooling, but temperatures will remain above average into the weekend.

- A few isolated showers may occur at times this week, particularly Wednesday to Thursday, but overall dry weather will continue.

- Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying fuels and periods of gusty winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A cluster of strong storms blew through portions of northeast OK and west-central AR this morning, but mostly dry conditions are now expected for the remainder of the day. The best chance of a few isolated showers and storms will be in the higher terrain of southeast OK this afternoon. Temperatures will rise to the mid 90s to low 100s, highest to the south. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for southeast OK into west-central AR.

Overnight tonight, conditions will be quiet for most areas. There is a signal in the CAMs for a few weak and isolated showers and storms in the higher terrain of northwest AR, but these are not expected to result in significant impacts. Low temperatures will be in the 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The upper level ridge will strengthen with increasing temperatures Tuesday. Most areas will reach 100-107 F, which is well above normal. Recent dry conditions will mean humidity will be a more modest factor. However, the areas that saw rainfall today are likely to hold onto somewhat higher dew points, so perhaps in these areas we will trade a few degrees off the high in exchange for higher heat indices. Went ahead and issued an Extreme Heat Warning for most of eastern OK and west-central AR, with a Heat Advisory for the other areas. These products continue through Wednesday, which is expected to be similarly hot to perhaps 1-2 F warmer. Heat indices will peak at or above 110 F within the warning with overnight lows in the mid 70s to low 80s.

A weak boundary will take the edge off of the heat Thursday, with highs dropped into the mid 90s to low 100s. This will occur as the upper ridge nudges westward a bit. Guidance suggests a few isolated showers and storms could develop near and north of the boundary. Then Friday into the weekend it looks like a resumption of hot, mostly dry, and somewhat breezy conditions. Fire weather potential will continue to gradually increase as most areas will see little to no rain during the next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 75 104 83 105 / 10 10 0 0 FSM 76 105 79 106 / 10 10 0 10 MLC 75 107 81 106 / 10 20 0 0 BVO 69 105 77 103 / 10 0 0 10 FYV 70 102 78 102 / 20 10 0 20 BYV 69 100 78 101 / 10 0 0 20 MKO 73 105 78 104 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 70 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 10 F10 73 106 79 107 / 10 20 0 0 HHW 74 104 79 103 / 0 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ058- 063-068-069-172.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-070-071- 073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053-055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176- 254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001- 002-010-011-119-120.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ119-120-129-219- 220-229.

Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ129-219-220-229.