textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 - There is a limited severe weather risk Friday in association with a front.

- Multiple opportunities for thunderstorms, along with some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall potential will exist from this weekend through the middle part of next week.

- A window for more widespread and higher-end severe weather potential is emerging Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday night) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Pleasant conditions will persist through tonight under the influence of upper level ridging over much of the Southern Plains. Southerly wind will be a bit breezy through this afternoon, with some gusts to near 30 mph possible. But otherwise, sunny skies with some scattered cumulus clouds will be common this afternoon. Highs will be near 80 degrees for most locations. Increasing moisture along with continued southerly winds tonight will keep lows quite a bit milder than previous nights...generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Most of the night will be clear, but some low thunderstorm chances will arrive late tonight near the OK/KS border, as a complex of storms progged to develop over northern Kansas this afternoon makes a run at the area. Overall, a weakening trend is expected in this activity, but some rain and thunder will be possible late tonight toward tomorrow morning along the southward advancing outflow. Additional, elevated shower or storm development will be possible across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday morning where low level warm advection intensifies on the nose of a low level jet. All of this activity should generally weaken through the morning with not much southward extent into the forecast area as we remain under the influence of deep layer ridging aloft.

The morning activity will likely leave behind an outflow boundary, which combined with a synoptic frontal boundary will sag down across far northern Oklahoma by Friday afternoon. Increasing moisture pooling along the boundary along with prevalent sunshine by mid afternoon will lead to modest destabilization in the vicinity of the boundary by mid afternoon Friday. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across northern Oklahoma Friday afternoon into the evening. Relatively weak flow aloft will likely lead to more disorganized storm modes, though ample instability will still pose a marginal severe threat with the strongest storms...mainly in the form of large hail and damaging downburst winds. PoPs have been confined to stay north of I-40 as stronger ridging limits development further south through the afternoon hours. Activity should subside after sundown with the loss of diurnal heating, leading to another mild night across the forecast area.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A relatively quiet day is in store on Saturday as the boundary lifts back north of the local region and forcing for storms is mainly confined to western Oklahoma and Texas through the day Saturday. Beginning Saturday night into Sunday, we move into a more active pattern for showers and storms, with at least some sever potential noted each day during the extended period. A relatively subtle shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will track across the Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning. Timing of the wave is as such that increase shower and thunderstorm chances are expected by early Sunday morning. This will likely limit the overall severe threat on Sunday with a more cool, showery day expected across the area. Still, some strong to severe storms will remain possible, especially more across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas where storms may arrive later in the morning to early afternoon when some destabilization can develop.

Strengthening southwest flow aloft continues into early next week. Monday looks to be a day in between waves where more isolated to widely scattered convection is possible within the large warm sector. Any pertinent surface features remains rather nebulous through Monday, making it hard to pin down any certain areas under the gun more than others. Still, increasing shear and instability will support severe storms wherever they can develop through the day Monday. Not everybody will see storms during this period as coverage remains fairly isolated in nature. There is converging agreement that the parent trough will finally eject out of the Rockies into the Plains on Tuesday, potentially providing a more widespread and higher end severe threat across portions of the Plains during this time. The advancing shortwave will also push a frontal boundary through the region by Wednesday leading to at least a day or two of tranquil weather to finish out the week. Details in timing and placement of features will be refined in the coming days, but a potentially higher impact event seems most likely during this timeframe.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period. Diurnal Cu development may offer brief ceilings in the 4-5 Kft range this afternoon. South winds remain gusty through the daytime, then will drop off after sunset with LLWS likely developing at NE OK sites after 06z. Have added a PROB30 for thunder at KBVO after 12z Friday as a few elevated thunderstorms are expected to push south out of KS during the morning...sig impacts remain unlikely.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 80 61 80 61 / 0 0 60 20 FSM 82 58 83 59 / 0 0 20 10 MLC 80 61 81 61 / 0 0 20 10 BVO 81 57 78 56 / 0 20 70 30 FYV 79 58 80 58 / 10 0 40 20 BYV 78 59 78 58 / 10 0 50 20 MKO 80 59 80 59 / 0 0 30 10 MIO 79 59 75 58 / 10 10 70 40 F10 80 60 81 60 / 0 0 20 10 HHW 79 59 80 59 / 0 0 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.