textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Temperatures above normal with continued periods of high heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity.

- Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall.

- Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Much of the current night looks to be on the calmer side compared to the last couple of nights, with any overnight shower/storm development confined to parts of southeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of weak low level warm advection. Given the expected lack of much in the way of overnight storm development and corresponding residual cloud cover during the day, warmer conditions are likely on deck for a good chunk of the area compared to Saturday. That being said, some potential for an afternoon increase in cloud cover across parts of northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, along with low shower/storm chances, will exist, creating a gradient in high temperatures across the area. The NBM high temperatures capture expectations well and will be left alone. Dew point trends are low confidence at this point, with a pocket of higher /mid 70s/ values expected to set up across a portion of east central into northeast Oklahoma and lower values on either side. An initial starting point of the short-term blended guidance through mid morning with a transition to the NBM guidance looks good for the moment. Highest confidence in the aforementioned temperatures and dew points to reach heat advisory criteria heat indices is roughly along and south of I-40, with moderate confidence as far north as Creek/Tulsa/southern Rogers counties. A Heat Advisory will be issued for this portion of eastern Oklahoma as well as the Arkansas River Valley areas in west central Arkansas.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Sunday night into early Monday continues to appear more active than the current night. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will hang on during the evening hours across parts of far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, but much greater coverage remains likely after midnight into the daylight hours Monday morning. A disturbance will move through the area on the eastern periphery of the upper level high centered to the west, with development beginning across parts of northeast Oklahoma before extending southeastward across Arkansas before dawn Monday. Some of the recent CAMs keep isolated to shower potential farther west in the area into Monday afternoon. Will not adjust the NBM POPs for this just yet but the trend will need to be monitored and potentially adjusted for. Assuming this westward and delayed trend does not occur, high temperatures across southeast Oklahoma will push 105 in some locations Monday afternoon. A front will move through the area during the day Tuesday, with its progression determining where the hotter temperatures setup and how cool northern parts of the area get. With current expectations, areas south of I-40 will again push 105, with highs across the northern half of the area /only/ in the mid and upper 90s. Heat headlines will be needed in parts of the area both Monday and Tuesday.

From mid to late in the upcoming week, the basic weather pattern remains similar, with the upper level ridge centered to the west leading to periods of low shower and thunderstorm chances for some and a corresponding brief period of cooler temperatures. Temperatures on average should be above normal, save for the lucky locations and days with rain and residual cloud cover during the day.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late this evening and overnight, with potential impacts at the northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 96 76 99 75 / 10 50 10 0 FSM 99 76 98 74 / 10 30 30 10 MLC 102 79 105 77 / 0 10 10 0 BVO 94 70 97 69 / 20 50 10 0 FYV 95 71 92 71 / 20 50 40 0 BYV 91 69 88 70 / 20 60 40 0 MKO 97 76 100 73 / 10 40 10 0 MIO 92 70 93 71 / 20 60 30 0 F10 99 76 103 74 / 0 20 10 0 HHW 100 78 103 78 / 0 0 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-060-061-064>067-070-071-073>075-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.