textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 631 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Warmer temps Friday with scattered strong to severe storms from mid afternoon through evening.

- Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night into Sunday.

- Warming ahead of next cold front arriving early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Quiet night with temperatures running a bit milder and a light south wind. An increase in south wind Friday will bring notably warmer daytime temperatures, and will result in some degree of increase in low level moisture. Guidance remains consistent with the arrival of a cold front into the area late Friday afternoon with a narrow corridor of unstable air along and to the southeast. Mid level shortwave in northwest flow timed favorably with peak heating will help erode inhibition, with the result being development of a broken line of thunderstorms along the front, which has been consistently depicted by last several CAM runs. Forecast soundings showing a deep mixed layer with temp/dew point spreads supporting potential for damaging downburst winds. Deep layer shear may also promote enough organization for large hail. Storms will move southeast through the evening with weakening trend likely.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Another shortwave in northwest flow is forecast to drop southeast late Saturday with additional showers and thunderstorms developing to the west of our area. There remains spread in guidance to where the corridor of strongest instability will lie, but the signal remains of storms growing into one or more clusters and spreading ESE Saturday night, possibly lingering into part of Sunday as the cold front is pushed through the region by passing upper wave.

Early part of next week should be dry with a cooler day Sunday, followed by a quick return to above normal temperatures into mid- week. Another front may bring a chance of thunderstorms by Tuesday or Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South winds will gust to near 20 knots at times during the day today. A broken band of high based showers and thunderstorms may impact most sites late this afternoon and evening. There is some potential for fog development late tonight, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF's at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 82 54 82 60 / 40 40 0 60 FSM 82 57 85 60 / 0 40 0 40 MLC 81 58 84 63 / 0 30 0 60 BVO 82 48 82 56 / 50 10 0 50 FYV 78 53 83 58 / 0 50 0 40 BYV 77 54 81 57 / 0 70 0 30 MKO 79 55 81 59 / 10 50 0 60 MIO 77 52 80 57 / 40 60 0 40 F10 80 56 82 61 / 10 40 0 60 HHW 78 59 82 63 / 0 20 0 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.