textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Lower shower and storm chances Wednesday though confidence is low.

- Unsettled pattern and plentiful moisture return to maintain daily shower and thunderstorm chances beginning Thursday through the weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Ongoing convection across E OK and NW AR is primarily being aided by the slow moving remnant MCV that is drifting southward through E OK. Drier low level air is attempting to advection westward into the local region but is making slow progress. While the bulk of guidance focuses higher rain chances west of the area on Wednesday the forecast confidence is low and overall coverage by afternoon by again trend higher. Slow storm motions have allowed for locally heavy rains and this will remain a concern given the weak steering flow.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A brief lull in rain chances is currently forecast for Wednesday night before the pattern returns to persistent subtle forcing within a plume of rich moisture. Mid level trough makes slow progress across the Plains Thursday into Friday with the southern extent of this trough drawing an upper low northward across N Mexico and into far W TX by Saturday. Forcing with the slow moving trough passage will foster increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage Thursday through Friday while the aforementioned upper low lifts northeastward across the region Saturday through Monday. This pattern evolution coupled with plentiful moisture will maintain daily shower and thunderstorm chances into early next week. The overall flow aloft will remain weak and any severe potential will continue to be isolated and locally heavy rainfall and flooding concerns will remain the primary concern.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Scattered showers are expected to wind down over the next few hours. A couple of isolated storms remain possible, with heavy rain and gusty winds being the main impacts. A few additional showers or storms may occur Wednesday afternoon, but did not include them in the TAFs as the probability is too low to be specific at this time. Winds will mostly remain light and out of the east to southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 85 68 85 70 / 20 10 30 30 FSM 86 68 87 69 / 0 0 40 10 MLC 88 69 86 71 / 20 10 40 20 BVO 84 64 85 68 / 20 10 30 30 FYV 84 63 84 68 / 0 0 30 10 BYV 80 61 82 65 / 0 0 20 10 MKO 85 67 85 69 / 20 10 30 20 MIO 84 65 85 68 / 10 0 30 20 F10 85 67 84 68 / 20 10 30 20 HHW 86 70 83 70 / 20 10 50 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.