textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

- Fog potential tonight and again tomorrow night.

- The weather pattern favors much above normal warmth this week. There is a high chance of daily record high temperatures some days, and some chance for setting all-time December highs at some spots.

- Gusty southerly winds are expected at times, but increasing low level moisture should limit the overall fire weather threat.

- The next cold front is expected Saturday night, and will usher in much more typical temps for this time of year by Sunday. The front will also bring low chances for rain to portions of the area.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

The low cloud forecast varies in the CAMs tonight into tomorrow, with the NAMNest more widespread with low cloud development across the region, and the HRRR on the lower side of the coverage envelope. The NAMNest tends to be on the pessimistic side while the HRRR can be underdone at times. There is agreement, however, that at least patchy fog will develop to the north and west of Tulsa toward daybreak, and in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR. Will not issue any headlines at this time given uncertainties with the coverage of denser fog, but will pass concerns to next shift. Based on what happened earlier today, will lean toward the low clouds scattering out during the day tomorrow, with temps headed upward. Rising heights aloft as a ridge axis amplifies over the Plains will set the stage for unusually warm weather. 500mb heights may reach 590dam over north TX on Tuesday afternoon, which is more typical of what you would see in July and August, not December. The current forecast has record highs at Tulsa, Fayetteville and Fort Smith.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

The ridge aloft remains in place into Christmas Eve, and will gradually flatten out to close out the week. The forecast will lean toward the warm CONSMOS as the low level thermal ridge gradually expands eastward across the central and southern Plains. Forecast highs will trend a little warmer each day through Friday. There is a high chance more daily record highs will fall, and some chance that some all-time December high records could fall as well. A big pattern change is expected by the weekend, with a deep trough expected to dig over the eastern CONUS. As a result, a cold front is expected to slide across the region Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be much cooler and more typical of late December. Several scenarios in the ensemble data indicate some potential for showers with the front, so have expanded the slight chance PoPs from what the model blend (NBM) had.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings are anticipated to spread across much of the CWA tonight into Tuesday morning. Also overnight, patchy areas of reduced visibility are forecast with the greater potential near the Kansas border and within the terrain of northwest Arkansas. Will continue with Tempo group at KBVO for fog late tonight into Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, cloud cover is forecast to scatter out again with high clouds Tuesday evening. There is potential again for some MVFR ceilings to again redevelop over northwest Arkansas toward the end of the TAF period. Winds through the period remain southerly for most locations, while easterly winds remain common tonight for KFSM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 53 75 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 54 76 61 78 / 0 0 10 0 MLC 59 78 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 46 73 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 53 73 60 75 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 52 73 59 76 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 54 77 61 77 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 52 73 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 F10 57 78 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 59 75 61 76 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.