textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 447 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Widely scattered shower and storm chances continue over the next couple of afternoons.

- Temperatures hold steady near normal through mid week.

- Better storm chances Wednesday with another system approaching the region.

- Hot and mostly dry conditions build back in by late week through next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

THe system that brought the rain this weekend has mostly pushed south of the region. A weak mid level trough axis remains draped over far southeast Oklahoma and could serve as a focus for a few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms through the overnight hours tonight into early Monday morning. Strong mid and upper level ridging will continue to build in across the Northern states on Monday, with generally weak easterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Sufficient moisture still remains in place that chances for widely scattered showers and storms will continue into Monday afternoon, mainly favored over the terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Severe weather is not expected, but some strong downburst winds could occur with any of the more intense storms through the afternoon. Activity should wane toward sunset with the loss of daytime heating and associated instability. Otherwise, generally pleasant weather for mid July in the Southern Plains can be expected. Temperatures will be near normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations, with light easterly to northeasterly winds.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Monday night should clear out as a few showers could linger into the late evening across southeast Oklahoma before dissipating. Tuesday will be similar to Monday, with near normal temperatures and more widely scattered showers and storms possible across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas during the afternoon and early evening. As upper ridging holds over the Northern CONUS through mid week, a weak mid level wave will track westward from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains on Wednesday, bringing more prevalent shower and storm chances for the area Wednesday afternoon. Generally weak flow aloft still will keep severe chances pretty low, but as usual this time of year, strong downburst winds will be possible with brief instances of damaging wind gusts with any stronger updrafts.

After that wave departs, the ridge will begin to broaden and expand across much of the CONUS by late week and into next week. The result will be hot and mostly dry conditions returning for the latter half of the forecast period, with heat headlines possible again during this period.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 447 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for most areas. Some patchy fog, particularly near KFYV, will remain possible until just after sunrise. Winds will be light and variable, but will favor the northeast. Patchy clouds in the 3-5 kft layer will develop during the day today but rain is unlikely at most terminals. The best chance for a few afternoon showers or storms will be near KMLC and KFSM. Any storms would be capable of gusty winds and brief heavy rain. With that said the probability is rather low at 20-30%, lower elsewhere.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 91 73 92 73 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 93 74 93 73 / 20 0 20 20 MLC 91 72 91 69 / 30 10 20 10 BVO 90 69 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 90 68 90 69 / 10 0 20 20 BYV 89 66 89 68 / 0 0 20 20 MKO 90 72 91 71 / 20 0 10 0 MIO 90 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 F10 89 70 89 70 / 20 0 10 0 HHW 87 70 88 70 / 40 20 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.