textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Fire weather concerns this afternoon and again Sunday. Locally critical fire weather conditions in Osage and Pawnee counties today.

- A strong cold front Sunday will bring much cooler conditions to the area. Increased thunderstorm chances, with a low potential for severe weather, along the front in southeast Oklahoma, western Arkansas.

- Widespread freeze Monday and Tuesday mornings.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to shift south and southeast through tonight, allowing for the return of southerly low level flow to the region. At the same, a deepening surface low pressure into the central Plains was increasing the pressure gradient, and the result was strengthening southerly winds along and northwest of Interstate 44. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will remain common over northeast Oklahoma through this afternoon, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph for the rest of the CWA. These winds combined with afternoon temperatures in the 60s and relative humidity values falling into the 15 to 30 percent range will elevate fire weather concerns across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The area of greater concern is along and west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma, where min humidity of 10 to 20 percent and the stronger wind gusts are expected to be co-located. Thus, will continue with the Red Flag warning for Osage and Pawnee cos.

Wind gusts of 15 to near 30 mph across the CWA are forecast into the overnight hours while the surface low drops through the Plains ahead of the southern periphery of a weak frontal boundary approaching the region. Even with mostly clear conditions tonight, the continued wind gusts should keep temperatures from bottoming out with forecast lows in the 40s for most locations.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The weak frontal boundary clips the CWA Friday with more variable winds across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. South of this boundary, continued though weaker, southerly flow will help begin a warming trend with afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s. Highs in the upper 60s around 70 deg are forecast closer to the boundary Friday afternoon. This boundary quickly lifts out of the CWA Friday night, keeping the warming trend going through Saturday. Saturday is forecast to be the warmest of the next 7 days with highs of mid 70s to near 80 deg.

Surface low pressure is progged to deepen across the Plains Saturday night ahead of a low pressure system dropping southeast into the Plains. This will again strengthen the pressure gradient and increase southerly low level winds over the CWA. 40-60KT winds in the 925mb and 850mb levels coupled with surface winds will create wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph Saturday night. Within the higher terrain locations of far southeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas could see gusts up around 40 mph.

Moisture advection also increases across the region Saturday night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to reach the CWA Sunday morning. Precipitable water values look to be reaching close to the 75th percent-tile. Moisture interacting with the low level jet and instability spreading over the region will create shower and storm chances developing starting Sunday morning. The greater precip potential is forecast over far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the afternoon hours ahead of the cold front. A limited severe potential exists, mainly over the far eastern portion of the CWA before the cold front exits late afternoon. Majority of the precip should be exiting by early evening Sunday, though latest model solutions continue to indicate a slight chance of lingering precip ahead of the mid/upper level trof axis. Thus, a slight chance of a rain/snow mix remains for far northwest Arkansas Sunday evening before the drier airmass over takes the CWA. No accumulations are anticipated.

Besides the precip potentials, the other main impact with the front Sunday will be the strong north/northwest winds gusting 35 to near 50 mph spreading northwest to southeast into Sunday evening. If confidence continues to increase, a wind advisory will likely be needed Sunday. Winds should begin to weaken Sunday night though remain breezy into Monday morning as the backside of the low pressure system moves through. These winds along with a forecast widespread freeze Monday morning could create wind chill values in the teens for much of the CWA. Surface high pressure behind the departing system looks to keep the cooler conditions going into Tuesday with freezing temperatures again forecast Tuesday morning. Looking farther into the forecast period, an upper level ridge of high pressure begins to build over the southwest U.S. with the return of above seasonal average temperatures for the second half of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with gusty winds and periods of LLWS being the main aviation impacts through midday tomorrow. Surface high pressure will continue to shift to the east this afternoon, with gusty south to southwest winds returning to all sites except FSM this afternoon. Some gustiness will remain into the evening and overnight at most sites with LLWS developing mid evening. A decrease in both the wind gust and LLWS impacts will occur between 12 and 18Z tomorrow. A wind shift to a more easterly direction remains expected at the end of the valid TAF period at the NE OK sites with the arrival of a weak boundary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 46 72 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 42 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 46 74 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 40 70 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 42 71 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 45 69 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 43 72 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 42 67 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 F10 45 72 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 43 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-059.

AR...None.