textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1134 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather will continue through early week.

- A slight chance of showers arrives Tuesday with higher rain chances next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Persistent upper level ridging over the southeast CONUS again today, with a longwave trough in the west. This continues the run of dry conditions with above normal temperatures. A fairly robust shortwave centered near KELP is expected to slowly move northeast, with steering flow directing most of it's energy well to the northwest of the local area.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

We will see a solid increase in mid level moisture tonight into Tuesday and the upper ridge is at least flattened by this shortwave, but surface pattern continues to support dry lower levels. There will likely be just enough forcing across the northwest portions of the area for some light precip to develop, but with a lingering dry layer noted below about 800mb. So at best, would expect some very light rain mainly to the west of Highway 75 Tuesday, potentially a few sprinkles toward the I-44 corridor. Clouds Tuesday should bring daytime temps down a few degrees. Slightly stronger flow over the Rockies will tighten the pressure gradient by mid week, with a modest increase in wind speeds resulting in an uptick in fire weather conditions Wed, though nothing near critical.

Most longer range guidance continues to depict a gradual breakdown of the upper ridge and a stronger more persistent southwest flow aloft developing for our region. Surface pattern should also support some influx of low level moisture. This will ultimately result in higher rain chances by the end of the week into the weekend, with a slight cool down owing mainly to more cloud cover and precip versus any meaningful airmass change. Forecast continues to show some rain chances in the Fri-Mon time frame, mainly due to the uncertainty of timing any shortwave in the more unsettled pattern.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with mainly mid and high cloud. Light rain showers could affect the NE OK terminals - mainly BVO - in the 12-18Z period, but the potential for category impacts appears to low enough at this range to leave the mention out. Winds will remain from the south to southeast at speeds under 10 kts at all sites except FSM, which of course, will keep an easterly wind through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 56 77 59 / 0 0 10 10 FSM 80 53 81 56 / 0 0 10 0 MLC 79 55 78 57 / 0 0 10 0 BVO 78 49 74 55 / 0 0 20 10 FYV 77 50 76 53 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 76 53 75 57 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 78 54 77 58 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 76 54 74 58 / 0 0 10 10 F10 78 55 77 58 / 0 0 10 10 HHW 79 54 79 56 / 0 0 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.