textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1103 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Warming trend through Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Overall, mostly dry conditions are likely.

- Cooler weather likely by late week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1103 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Southerly flow returns across the region today as the sfc high gradually slides east. Temperatures will warm nicely this afternoon into the 70s areawide with mostly sunny skies over at least NE OK and NW AR. Across SE OK, high clouds will be increasing in advance of an upper low which will move along the Red River Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight should remain warm enough to avoid frost potential, but a couple of the coldest spots could still briefly fall into the upper 30s. Elsewhere, warm/moist advection will help hold temps in the 40s. CAMs indicate fog potential again tonight, mainly focused along the low level moisture axis in E OK.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1103 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

The aforementioned upper low will navigate eastward along the Red River on Tuesday. This may lead to a few light showers across SE OK Tuesday morning-afternoon, but any meaningful rains are likely to remain south of the FA. Moist south/southwest flow will continue to encourage warmer temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the mid 70s for most. By early in the day Wednesday, a quick- moving shortwave will descend across the C plains, then pivot through the Midwestern states. This will drag a cold front through the forecast area during the day, likely complicating the temperature forecast. Given the timing of the front, currently expect cooler high temps along and north of I-40 on Wednesday, with warm and moist conditions initially expected across SE OK. If the front does not push through the area until late day, locations along the Red River may see temperatures approaching 80 degrees. Precipitation associated with this system is expected to remain east of the CWA.

Another shortwave and associated cold front are likely to push through the region Thursday as E CONUS troughing deepens. This will ensure cooler and drier conditions, along with breezy north winds, Thursday and Friday. By late Saturday or Sunday, high pressure will begin to move east with southerly flow returning, encouraging moderating temperatures. Low rain chances may eventually return to the forecast by early next week as an upper level wave approaches from the west.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Mid and high clouds increase across the CWA through the period in response to an area of low pressure moving east/northeast across Texas. Late tonight/early Tuesday morning there remains potential for fog development once again with the greater potential in northeast Oklahoma and also the Arkansas River Valley of west central Arkansas. At this time, uncertainty remains with coverage/timing and will hold off on mentioning in the TAFs. Future amendments may change with latest data. During the day Tuesday, there is also potential a few sprinkles in southeast Oklahoma as the wave passes. Winds through the period start out light/variable and become southerly Tuesday. Outside of any fog potential, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 49 76 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 47 75 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 50 74 55 73 / 10 10 0 0 BVO 42 75 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 41 72 50 69 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 47 72 56 68 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 48 74 55 70 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 47 73 54 68 / 0 0 0 0 F10 50 75 55 72 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 52 75 56 78 / 10 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.