textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Stormy period today and possibly Friday. Any heavy rainfall will lead to rapid onset flooding across much of NE OK. Severe weather potential today and possibly again Friday.

- Timing and placement details of the heaviest rains and higher severe weather chances remain uncertain. However chances are likely higher north of Interstate 40 for the most impactful weather.

- A more typical summer time pattern expected early next week. Heat advisory headlines will likely be needed.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Another round of heavy rainfall occurred this morning in a narrow band across portions of northeast Oklahoma. Areas of elevated, warm advection storms continue across western portions of Osage and Pawnee Counties with a continued flooding threat owing to the already saturated soils and swollen creeks and streams. Across the rest of the area warm and humid conditions persist south of a pseudo warm front draped generally near Highway 412 in northeast Oklahoma. The evolution of the elevated convection and the associated surface boundary through the early afternoon will play a critical role in what happens later this afternoon in regards to severe weather potential across the area. A complex of storms currently moving across south central Kansas will likely re enforce the warm frontal boundary near the OK/KS border by mid afternoon. Current convection is progged to lift northeast into Kansas by mid afternoon as the 850hPA frontal zone lift north in response to a mid level shortwave tracking across southern Kansas.

As this occurs the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable south of the ongoing convection and warm front. More robust convection is forecast to occur in the vicinity of the frontal zone along the OK/KS border by mid afternoon. More favorable wind fields are also progged to develop during this time as a surface low deepens west of the local region and stronger westerly flow aloft associated with the passing wave move over the region. This will allow for more organized severe weather potential including supercells capable of large hail and a couple tornadoes as the low level flow increases into the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms should move to the southeast deeper into northeast Oklahoma through the evening with the attendant severe threat decreasing somewhat further south where conditions are less favorable for organized severe weather. Severe chances will drop south of Highway 412 and be very low for locations south of I-40 through this evening. Storms will also develop out west and an MCS could develop and push eastward across eastern Oklahoma overnight tonight. Heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary threat with this activity as already saturated ground and swollen creeks and streams will facilitate the rapid onset of flooding with any thunderstorms over northeast Oklahoma. Thus, the Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday morning.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Moving into Friday the pattern begins to shift to a more typical summertime pattern with rising heights over the Southern Plains as a ridge builds across the eastern CONUS. Scattered thunderstorm development remains possible through the day Friday as a deep moisture boundary remains in place over northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. At least a marginal severe threat will possible with this activity along with heavy rainfall. By Saturday, the ridge will become firmly in place over the region with primarily dry weather persisting through the next week. Heat and humidity will also build across the area, and daily heat headline will likely be needed across a good portion of the forecast area as heat index values exceed 105 degrees most afternoons. Some isolated diurnal thunderstorm chances will still be possible, especially in the terrain, through next week as we remain on the western periphery of the building ridge. Otherwise, more typical summertime weather will arrive heading into July.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Low clouds across NE OK in the near term, and the timing and location of storms will be the main impacts this forecast. The low cigs should scatter out this afternoon, with increasing thunder potential across NE OK this afternoon. There is low potential at the NW AR sites as well. Multiple rounds of storms are possible at the NE OK and NW AR sites, though confidence in how far south is not high enough to just do TEMPOs at all sites. Used PROB30 at others where confidence is lower. Current thinking is that storm chances will drop off by 12Z, with no mention at any site after this point. Brief periods of LLWS conditions are possible, but are transient enough to keep mention out for now.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 75 90 77 92 / 40 20 30 10 FSM 75 91 77 93 / 20 20 10 10 MLC 77 90 78 92 / 20 20 0 0 BVO 71 88 74 91 / 60 10 20 10 FYV 72 86 74 88 / 40 40 40 20 BYV 71 85 73 88 / 50 30 40 20 MKO 75 88 77 90 / 40 20 20 10 MIO 71 87 73 90 / 60 30 50 20 F10 75 89 77 91 / 40 20 10 10 HHW 75 90 76 92 / 0 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ055>070-154-254-354.

AR...None.