textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1156 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Patchy frost is expected early Sunday in the sheltered valley locations of NW AR and far E OK.

- There are low shower chances Tuesday followed by better rain/storm chances with a stronger storm system and associated cold front Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Well below average temperatures are likely tonight, resulting from effective radiational cooling under clear skies with calm winds. Patchy frost is possible Sunday morning, primarily in the typically colder spots/sheltered valley locations. After a chilly start, temperatures will warm nicely into the upper 60s and 70s Sunday afternoon under mostly sunny skies. West-southwest winds increase during the day along the northern periphery of sfc high pressure, particularly across NE OK and far NW AR, between 10-20 mph.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Another cool night is forecast Sunday night, with lows in the 40s for most locations. By Monday, high pressure will be sliding to the east, with breezy southerly winds returning to the area. This will help transport moisture back into the region ahead of an approaching disturbance, projected to gradually move through S OK/N TX Tuesday. Have maintained low PoPs across SE OK/W-Central AR Tuesday as the WAA regime may provide some showers to the area. A weak thunderstorm or two are possible, but instability during this time looks weak. Most locations are likely to remain dry.

As the aforementioned disturbance exits the region, a potent upper low will be moving into the intermountain west. By Thursday, the low will move into the plains, setting the stage for at least low shower and storm chances across the area Thursday afternoon. PoPs then increase Thursday night into Friday as a cold front moves through the FA. Details will come into focus over the coming days, but severe weather does appear possible during this time, along with potential for heavy rainfall. Guidance varies going into next weekend, with some solutions providing a period of ridging, while others maintain troughiness and continued shower/storm potential. The NBM currently provides 10-30% PoPs next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with southerly winds returning during the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 42 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 40 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 38 73 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 36 74 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 34 71 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 39 70 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 39 72 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 38 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 F10 39 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 39 71 43 74 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.