textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Low rain/storm chances return to the forecast Tuesday and linger into Wednesday, mainly across the south.

- An unsettled weather pattern is expected starting Thursday and continuing into next weekend. Multiple opportunities for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The CWA will remain on the western periphery of sfc high pressure through the overnight hours with another night of below average temperatures. The pressure gradient will tighten during the day Monday, resulting in breezy southerly winds at 10-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph. High temperatures will likely be a few degrees warmer than Sunday, in the mid to upper 70s, which is slightly above average for this time of year. Aside from increasing high clouds across the south this afternoon, plenty of sunshine is expected today.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Warm air advection persists Monday night with overnight lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Within this regime, scattered showers will be possible across SE OK Tuesday morning and afternoon as a weak disturbance slides through TX and S OK. Instability continues to look quite poor during this time, but a few weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Additional precipitation potential lingers late Tuesday night into Wednesday south of I-40 as modest isentropic ascent persists. Overall, rainfall is likely to remain light Tuesday and Wednesday with no severe weather expected.

During the day Wednesday, a potent upper low will be navigating east through the western states, eventually moving into the plains by Thursday. This will drive a pacific front eastward across the central plains Thursday afternoon with a sharpening dryline across W OK. Thunderstorm (and severe weather) potential will increase along and ahead of these features Thursday afternoon/evening, increasing further Thursday night into Friday as a stronger front pushes south into the region. Severe weather chances will initially be highest across N-Central and NE OK Thursday, but translate south and east into NW AR and SE OK by Friday. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern during this time as PWATs climb to near or above the 90th percentile. This front may tend to linger through the weekend with additional shower and storm chances persisting into early next week. Temperatures remain near or slightly above average through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with gusty southerly winds at times during the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 76 52 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 78 49 77 54 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 75 51 69 55 / 0 10 20 20 BVO 76 49 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 75 49 75 51 / 0 0 10 10 BYV 74 52 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 75 49 71 54 / 0 0 10 10 MIO 73 50 73 54 / 0 0 0 0 F10 74 50 68 54 / 0 0 20 10 HHW 73 50 65 54 / 0 10 30 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.