textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 - Additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday evening with increasing heavy rainfall potential.

- Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

- Unsettled pattern returns late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Forecast remains consistent with expectation of widespread showers and storms spreading across the local region this evening into the overnight hours and then ending from north to south early Saturday. Isolated to scattered convection may develop this afternoon across E OK and NW AR but confidence remains low in this scenario. Should a storm develop then background conditions would support a brief strong to severe threat. Otherwise, the focus will be the advance cold front and storms initiating on the dryline further southwest and their progress eastward. The early evening time frame should see numerous storms spreading into E OK with a risk of severe weather primarily damaging winds with a more isolated risk of large hail. The tornadic potential continues to be appear low but non zero. With time the severe risk will transition to more of a heavy rain risk. The combination of short term guidance trends and background ensemble data favor a corridor of heavier rains as the convection line slows overnight. A flood watch has been issued for the most likely corridor of these heavier rains.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Showers and isolated storms will be ongoing across SE OK into western AR early Saturday but continue to end from north to south through the morning. Dry weather and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected are wide by afternoon. Sfc high pressure settles over the region and remains largely in place through early next week. A reinforcing weak cold front arrives Tuesday before stronger return flow and warmer temperatures develop by mid week. Shower and thunderstorm chances return by late next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A mixture of low VFR to periodic MVFR ceilings will continue through the afternoon with a few showers and storms from SE OK into NW AR. Widespread convection will spread across the region this evening and persist through the overnight hours with a focus southward with time. Aviation impacts will likely occur at all terminals with the heaviest rains and passing storms. Ceilings will rise into VFR levels across NE OK into NW AR Saturday morning with lower ceilings and areas of rain likely persisting across SE OK into west central AR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 52 65 42 / 50 90 20 0 FSM 82 57 67 43 / 30 90 80 0 MLC 81 54 65 44 / 50 100 60 0 BVO 77 48 64 37 / 70 90 10 0 FYV 79 50 63 39 / 40 90 50 0 BYV 79 52 61 39 / 40 90 60 0 MKO 81 52 63 40 / 40 90 40 0 MIO 78 49 60 37 / 50 90 20 0 F10 82 52 65 40 / 50 90 40 0 HHW 80 54 66 44 / 40 100 90 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning for OKZ049-068>076.

AR...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning for ARZ001-010-019-029.