textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 110 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- Warmer temps Friday with scattered strong to severe storms from mid afternoon through evening.

- Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night into Sunday.

- Warming ahead of next cold front arriving early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Quiet and dry overnight as sfc high moves east of the region. Southerly winds return helping keep overnight lows warmer.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Gusty southerly winds and noticeably warmer temperatures expected Friday ahead of weak cold front which will approach NE OK early to mid afternoon. Moisture return will be ongoing but limited in magnitude as sfc ridging currently extends through the western Gulf. Despite the lesser moisture return, guidance is in good agreement developing an unstable and weakly capped airmass ahead of the cold front by mid afternoon and scattered storms are likely to develop and spread east and southeastward through Friday evening. Sufficient instability coupled with stronger deep layer shear will support strong multicell to supercell storm mode with the more persistent updrafts. Large hail and locally strong outflow winds will be the predominant concerns through early evening. Expect a notable downtrend in severe potential after sunset.

The combined outflow / cold front boundary likely becomes aligned from the Red River corridor of SE OK into NW OK by Saturday afternoon. Guidance continues to vary on both the placement and magnitude of the eventual instability corridor in place by Saturday evening. The scenario of storms developing west of the local region and spreading eastward through Saturday remains the general idea, however the overall storm coverage and persistence into the day Sunday is more uncertain.

The wave passing Sunday is expected to drive the associated cold front well south of the region allowing for a dry start to the work week. The next front arrives in the Monday night to Tuesday time frame accompanied by the next chance of showers and storms.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Mainly clear skies will persist overnight, with some low level wind shear developing across NE OK sites overnight tonight. Surface winds go relatively light out of the south overnight before increasing tomorrow morning with gusts around 20 knots possible. A boundary will approach NE OK during the afternoon, bringing a chance for thunderstorms at the end of the period with gusts likely lessening somewhat as well as the boundary approaches and the pressure gradient weakens.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 53 82 55 82 / 0 40 40 0 FSM 48 82 57 84 / 0 0 30 0 MLC 49 81 58 84 / 0 0 40 0 BVO 49 82 49 83 / 0 50 30 0 FYV 47 79 54 82 / 0 10 50 0 BYV 48 77 55 81 / 0 10 50 0 MKO 49 79 56 81 / 0 10 50 0 MIO 50 77 52 80 / 0 50 50 0 F10 50 80 56 82 / 0 10 50 0 HHW 50 77 58 82 / 0 0 30 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.