textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 552 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Isolated showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon. Any stronger storms will be capable of locally gusty winds and heavy downpours.

- Hot and mostly dry conditions will develop each day through the remainder of the forecast period.

- Heat indices will reach 95-105F Sunday, and 105-112 F for many areas Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

An isolated shower or storm remains possible overnight, especially for northern areas, but overall it should remain dry. Winds will be light, with lows in the low to mid 70s once again.

Upper level ridging will build in more earnestly Sunday, with warming conditions expected. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s. With plentiful low level moisture remaining in place, afternoon heat indices will increase relative to the last few days. Heat indices will range from around 98-106 F, warmest in northeast OK and west-central AR. A Heat Advisory was issued for much of northeast OK and west-central AR.

Like the last few days, a few afternoon showers and storms will be possible. But given reduced instability from increasing temperatures and subsidence in the mid levels of the atmosphere, the overall coverage and intensity of any storms should be reduced. Storm chances look to focus across the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

An oppressive area of high pressure will continue to strengthen and expand into Monday and Tuesday. Upper 90s to low 100s can be expected on these days, with Tuesday being the warmer day. Overnight lows also look unusually warm, with upper 70s to around 80 F. With continued abundant low level moisture, heat indices will rise to 100-112F on these days, with locally higher values. Heat headlines for these days are expected.

Models are in better agreement compared to yesterday that a weak and shallow cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will have only a marginal impact on temperatures, with highs about 2-4 F cooler in the north, and 1-2 F cooler in the south for Wednesday. No rain is expected with the front.

For the second half of the week, ensembles are in good agreement that the upper level high will shift slightly to the west. In terms of temperature, this suggests that hot weather will continue, with highs remaining in the upper 90s to low 100s into the weekend. Heat headlines may continue through this period for at least parts of the area. The slight shift in the high pressure center will open the door to the potential for some glancing storm chances, particularly for northwest AR, with daily pops of 10-30% for the late week period. For the rest of the area, rainfall is not anticipated at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 96 79 100 80 / 10 10 0 0 FSM 97 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 95 77 97 76 / 10 10 0 0 BVO 95 76 99 77 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 93 75 95 76 / 20 10 10 0 BYV 94 74 95 76 / 20 10 20 0 MKO 94 76 97 78 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 94 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 0 F10 93 75 97 75 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 93 75 95 76 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-060>062-064>067-070-071-074-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-220.