textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Hot and humid conditions peak today. Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

- Low storm chances continue this afternoon primarily across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Higher storm chances/coverage and severe weather potential is expected Saturday evening and overnight and may impact the Independence Day holiday festivities in parts of northeast Oklahoma.

- Near normal temperatures Sunday into early next week, increasing again mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

An outflow boundary from storms well to the north in eastern Kansas is making its way south into northeast Oklahoma early this afternoon. It is likely that this boundary will slow/stall and eventually begin to wash out later this afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorm development is expected by late this afternoon or early evening from southern Kansas into north central Oklahoma, with the storms likely organizing into a complex this evening that will then move southeast across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this evening and overnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather threats early this evening, with a transition to mainly a damaging wind threat by mid to late evening as the storms organize and spread southeast. The severe weather threat will likely lessen somewhat overnight as the storms push farther south into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Locally heavy rainfall will also accompany these storms this evening and overnight. The timing of the storms may impact Independence Day holiday festivities in parts of northeast Oklahoma this evening.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A few showers and storms may linger into Sunday morning, with at least a low chance for some redevelopment Sunday afternoon and evening from southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. Temperatures Sunday will be cooler than today, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s in most places.

Dry weather with near seasonable temperatures will prevail Monday and Tuesday. An uptick in temperatures is expected later in the week, but likely not quite as hot as the NBM currently suggests. At least low rain chances will also return by the end of the week into next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Light southerly wind under partly cloudy skies are expected through early evening. An isolated shower may be possible over northwest AR but they are not expected to impact terminals.

By mid to late evening a line of storms will enter northeast OK. These storms are expected to bring areas of very strong winds, with widespread gusts of 30-40 kts, locally higher. Very heavy rain will also occur with lowered visibilities. Ceilings will develop, falling to 3-5 kft. These storms will then move south and east, impacting the rest of the area overnight. The threat of severe wind is expected to diminish over time.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will linger into Sunday morning, but the threat of rain and thunder will end. Winds will become light northerly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 70 88 69 91 / 90 30 10 10 FSM 72 93 72 92 / 50 30 10 10 MLC 72 92 71 92 / 60 30 20 10 BVO 68 87 66 90 / 80 30 0 0 FYV 68 88 66 89 / 60 30 10 10 BYV 68 87 67 87 / 60 30 10 10 MKO 72 89 69 91 / 60 30 10 10 MIO 68 86 67 89 / 70 30 10 10 F10 71 90 69 91 / 60 30 10 10 HHW 72 94 72 92 / 50 30 30 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>067-070-071- 073-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.