textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 - Areas of fog likely Saturday night into Sunday, some dense fog possible.

- Increasing rain chances again Sunday night into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary concern.

- After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions forecast through the holiday week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low level moisture wrapping around back side of departing low resulting in expansion of low clouds across northeast OK into far northwest AR presently. This will continue with clouds becoming more prevalent in much of the area Saturday morning. Some patchy drizzle or light rain showers have been observed across parts of southeast KS and some very light precip will remain possible near KS and MO borders into Saturday morning, however measurable precip chances remain less than 20%. Overall anticipate a cooler afternoon Saturday, especially where low clouds are most persistent, most likely area being northwest AR and adjacent areas of northeast OK.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low clouds should eventually clear for all areas by Saturday evening. Surface high will settle over the forecast area overnight with areas of fog developing. Scenario will favor at least limited potential for dense fog given the recent rainfall. Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday in advance of another upper low, with another surge of moisture by late Sunday resulting in widespread rainfall chances returning by Sunday evening within warm conveyor belt ahead of the upper low. A few embedded thunderstorms also possible Sunday night.

Widespread showers continue into Monday, with stronger deep layer wind fields spreading over the area during that time. The higher instability continues to be depicted over southeast OK into west central AR, and this area should become focus for heaviest rainfall totals of 1-2" and locally higher amounts. Flooding potential will be slightly higher with this round being only a few days removed from recent heavy rainfall. A few strong to severe storms may develop where the stronger wind fields overlap somewhat higher instability, again over southeast OK and west central AR.

After this system departs, dry weather expected to prevail through the Thanksgiving holiday, with temperatures closer to normal levels behind a more substantial cold front.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

MVFR conditions with the potential for period of IFR conditions will remain common across the CWA through much of the day while the backside of mid/upper level shortwave moves over the region. The greater potential for IFR conditions along with patchy areas of drizzle are across far northwest Arkansas through late morning. Cloud cover is forecast to begin scattering out from west to east late afternoon/evening with northwest Arkansas trying to become more scattered MVFR late evening. In response, the potential for fog development increases over the CWA tonight, which could then quickly spread LIFR/IFR conditions back over northwest Arkansas through the end of the TAF period. Winds through the period start out west to northwest and become variable tonight with surface high pressure setting up over the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 59 43 66 52 / 0 0 0 80 FSM 64 45 70 51 / 0 0 0 70 MLC 62 42 69 53 / 0 0 0 90 BVO 60 37 65 47 / 0 0 0 70 FYV 57 42 67 49 / 0 0 0 60 BYV 56 43 65 48 / 10 0 0 50 MKO 59 42 65 52 / 0 0 0 80 MIO 56 41 65 50 / 10 0 0 60 F10 61 42 65 52 / 0 0 0 90 HHW 63 45 66 52 / 0 0 0 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.