textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- Thunderstorm chances remain into Wednesday mainly south of Interstate 40.

- Below normal temperatures through Thursday.

- Southerly winds and a warmer trend Friday with a return of shower and thunderstorm chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The surface frontal boundary that moved across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday had pushed southeast of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas mid evening Tuesday. Meanwhile, frontogenetic forcing at the 925-mb and 850-mb levels are expected to remain over the CWA into early Wednesday morning. In response, and combined with a vort max moving across Kansas, will continue rain chances for the CWA, with thunder potentials mainly along and south of Interstate 40 into early Wednesday morning. Latest short- term solutions continue to hint at a few elevated storms developing near the 925-mb frontal boundary late Tuesday night and have trended higher PoPs in far southeast Oklahoma.

During the day Wednesday, a shortwave is progged to drop southeast out of the Rocky Mountains and into the central/southern Plains Wednesday evening. This will help push the elevated frontal boundaries over the region to the southeast and exit Wednesday evening. Rain chances along with thunder potentials shift southeast Wednesday and should taper off/exit with the departed elevated fronts. Majority of the instability remains south/southeast of the CWA Wednesday, thus severe potentials are not anticipated.

Cloud cover and northerly winds combined with surface high pressure sagging into the region will keep the much cooler conditions going for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low temperatures in the 40s/50s are expected Wednesday morning and then only warm into the 60s during the day. The shortwave moving into the region Wednesday evening moves off to the southeast Thursday morning, which could create the scattering of cloud cover late Wednesday night. These conditions and light winds will help low temperatures fall into the 40s for most locations. The normal cool locations could potentially fall into the upper 30s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The shortwave quickly exits during the day Thursday with surface high pressure exiting Thursday night. This will allow for the return of southerly winds and temperatures climbing back into the 80s Friday. On the heals of the departing shortwave, a second shortwave quickly drops southeast through the Plains, which could create the potential for low chances of showers/storms as the wave moves through. For now, with uncertainty of moisture return, will carry low PoPs for the northeast portion of the CWA Friday afternoon/evening.

The Friday disturbance exits Friday night ahead of another area of low pressure and frontal boundary progged to move through the region Sunday/Sunday night. Moisture advection into the region should have more time ahead of this wave, and could have a higher chance for showers/storms. Cooler temperatures are also forecast late weekend as the wave moves through. However, breezy southerly winds and warmer conditions quickly return early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A high variance in cigs is currently present across the region. IFR cigs in far NW AR, MVFR across SE OK and W-Cntrl AR and VFR across NE OK. Expect cigs to be nearly steady through the night, with improvement expected during the day Wednesday back to VFR at all sites. Elevated storms north of a front across SE OK will spread in the direction of KMLC and eventually KFSM in the coming hours. Maintained prob30 mention for this activity.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 64 43 71 50 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 66 48 72 47 / 20 10 0 0 MLC 66 46 72 48 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 62 37 70 46 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 62 42 68 44 / 20 0 10 0 BYV 60 43 67 46 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 64 44 70 47 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 61 40 67 47 / 10 0 0 0 F10 64 43 70 47 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 68 52 72 49 / 20 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.