textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1038 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Frost and light freeze potential this weekend, with the best chance for freezing temperatures and frost centered on Sunday morning across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

- Mostly pleasant, unseasonably cool, and dry weather expected through the weekend.

- A gradual warming trend develops next week under persistent dry weather.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

High pressure, centered over Missouri, remains over the region overnight, providing light to calm winds. Low clouds have been persistent across NW AR Friday evening, with a more expansive deck of low clouds present over MO and SE KS. Near-term guidance suggests these low clouds will gradually expand back across E OK through the overnight hours. Meanwhile, high clouds will increase over the region, downstream of an upper low located in the desert SW. This provides a complicated temperature forecast for the FA overnight, with implications for the fog and frost potential. Any locations across N OK/ NW AR which remain or become cloud-free for a period tonight would likely experience effective radiational cooling. This could permit temperatures to fall as low as 33 to 36 degrees, particularly in the typical cold drainage areas. Given moist soil conditions from recent rainfall, patchy frost development may also occur in these areas. Fog potential remains uncertain, but along a similar line of thinking, may develop where effective radiational cooling/mostly clear skies exist.

The latest expectation is that low clouds will persist across NW AR, limiting frost potential and keeping any fog from becoming too dense. This would also imply warmer overnight lows in the 40s. Across NE OK, where low clouds had cleared earlier in the day, frost and fog potential is higher. Indeed many reporting sites have already observed temperatures in the mid-upper 30s this evening, despite increasing high clouds. Given this trend, have opted to include patchy frost/fog mention for this part of the CWA through early Saturday morning. This is especially true across portions of Osage and Pawnee counties, where guidance fills in with low clouds last. Any fog that does develop is likely to erode by mid morning.

Similar to Friday, low clouds may have a difficult time dissipating during the day, especially given increased high level cloudiness. However, a gradual clearing trend should eventually be observed. Any areas that clear relatively quickly may warm well into the 60s, while those remaining under cloud cover will probably struggle to warm out of the 50s. Latest data holds onto clouds the longest across NE OK and NW AR. All in all, it should be another low-impact fall day.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

High pressure remains in place Saturday night and Sunday morning. This will provide another chilly night, with additional frost and/or fog potential expected for NE OK and NW AR. In fact, a brief freeze will be possible for the typical colder spots along the OK-KS border and in far NW AR as winds go calm. This potential will need to be monitored, and a Freeze Warning may be needed. Given these conditions, at least a brief period of patchy freezing fog cannot be ruled out Sunday morning.

Dry conditions are favored early next week as high pressure remains in the area before drifting southeast. This will permit a return of southerly winds on Monday with warming temperatures. A few isolated showers are possible across SE OK on Tuesday as an upper low moves along the Red River, but any rainfall will remain light. By midweek, a cold front will push through the region, bringing temperatures back down to average and perhaps sparking some precipitation over eastern portions of the FA. From here, deep troughing develops over the E CONUS through the end of the week w/ sfc high pressure over the CWA. This is likely to keep the area dry and cool through next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

LIFR to MVFR conditions ongoing this morning across parts of the CWA are progged to lift back to low end VFR and scatter out late morning through the afternoon hours. Far northwest Arkansas is forecast to be the last to get back to VFR this afternoon. High clouds also ongoing this morning remains common through the day, and looks to become more scattered this afternoon into tonight. Anticipated clearing conditions along with light winds through the period will aid in the potential for fog development overnight tonight. Have added Tempo groups for KBVO and northwest Arkansas near the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 58 36 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 64 41 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 63 37 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 57 31 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 60 32 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 58 39 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 59 37 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 57 36 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 F10 60 36 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 68 45 69 43 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.