textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1138 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Cool morning lows, warm afternoon highs prevail through the end of the week.

- Rain is not expected through this weekend. Low rain and thunderstorm chances could return the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday Night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, a weak surface boundary is forecast to sag into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Slightly higher moisture content along/near this boundary could allow for a limited potential for patchy areas of reduced visibility/fog development as mostly clear skies and light winds continue over the region. Any visibility restriction should quickly improve after sunrise Thursday.

High pressure is expected to remain common across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the end of the work week. At the same time, 850-mb temperatures holding in the 16-19C range will translate to high temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s into the weekend for the CWA.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Current high pressure over the region is progged to get a push north/northeast Saturday as now Hurricane Isaias moves onshore. Latest model solutions continue to keep Isaias east of the CWA, though easterly winds and scattered cloud cover could move through northwest Arkansas Saturday. In the wake of the tropical system moving farther north/northeast of the region, an additional ridge of high pressure is forecast to set up over the southern Plains. This will likely continue the above seasonal average temperatures along with breezy southerly winds Sunday into the first part of next week. These conditions could create limited areas of fire weather concern over parts of northeast Oklahoma, where the higher wind gusts are anticipated.

Also over the weekend, an area of low pressure drops southeast along the West Coast and merges with the remnants of tropical system Rachel. This low pressure system is then progged to move across the Desert Southwest and into the southern/central Plains mid to latter part of next week. As this wave moves into the Plains, a cold front looks to approach the region, and the combination of these features will increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms to return to the CWA. Details with this wave will continue to be monitored and updated as it approaches.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Guidance is not near as bullish with fog potential toward daybreak Thursday compared to 24 hours ago. A weak back door boundary settling down into far NE OK/NW AR could aid in some development in the valleys, so a mention of MVFR fog was left in a TEMPO group at KFYV. Moisture profiles in the low levels in recent short-term data look fairly dry however, reducing confidence. Outside of this fog potential, VFR conditions will prevail with light winds.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 63 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 59 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 57 91 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 57 91 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 56 90 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 61 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 60 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 59 89 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 F10 60 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 60 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.