textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon through early tonight, however confidence remains low in overall storm coverage.

- Thunderstorm and severe weather chances linger into Monday and Tuesday across eastern areas.

- After a break from active weather on Wednesday, rain and low thunderstorm chances return late week. Severe potential appears low at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A mid level trough gradually ejects from the Rockies today, while a warm front lifts north and moisture advection continues at the surface east of a dryline and sfc low in Western/Central OK. The eastern end of the warm front will likely struggle with its northward advance, and the front is expected to end up draped across our area this afternoon and evening, oriented NW to SE. This maintains widespread 60+ dewpoints, with pockets of 70+ possible this evening, and results in an increasingly unstable airmass across the warm sector. With steep lapse rates and increasing wind shear, the environment will certainly be supportive of severe weather and any storm that develops and takes advantage will likely become severe. All severe hazards will be possible this afternoon into tonight, including large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (particularly if sfc-based storms are present in the evening).

With that said, storm coverage remains uncertain, and overall storm chances remain fairly low... only between 20 and 40 percent this afternoon through tonight. Warm advection storms will be possible north of the front with additional isolated storms possible across the remainder of the area as inhibition decreases, with preference along the dryline/triple point. The environment will continue to support severe weather into the overnight period, however, thunderstorm and severe chances should generally trend downward by late overnight/early morning. Overall, it remains to be seen how many storms will develop to take advantage of the environment today, but it is a day to remain weather aware and appreciate the potential.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Sunday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Additional thunderstorm development will be possible along and ahead of an advancing dryline/frontal boundary Monday afternoon/early evening, some of which may be severe. Based on the latest timing expectations, this places far E OK and NW AR in the greater risk for severe weather. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concerns Monday. The front is expected to stall in the vicinity of western Arkansas and SE OK Monday night into Tuesday as another shortwave moves across the region. This results in yet another day of severe weather potential, particularly along and south of I-40 in E OK and into W-Central and NW AR during the afternoon and evening.

The cold front will eventually move south of the local area Tuesday night, with high pressure providing a break from the active weather pattern on Wednesday. Precip chances increase late week as another shortwave passes overhead and an upper low moves east out of the Desert SW. Instability during this period continues to look fairly weak, so thunder chances remain much lower through the end of the week with no severe weather expected. Quiet weather is possible Sunday with another period of high pressure.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A mixture of cloud heights noted across the local region as a warm front across far SE OK continues to lift northward with MVFR ceilings in its proximity. North of the front VFR conditions largely prevail. A trend toward predominant VFR ceilings w/ patchy MVFR conditions is expected through the afternoon. Any storm coverage through the early evening is likely to remain too low to warrant mention at this time. Overnight storm chances likely focus across NE OK and points northward while stratus again expands northward in advance of the cold front. Winds veer as the front approaches and passes tomorrow w/ clearing skies.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 69 89 55 74 / 40 10 10 40 FSM 68 87 64 82 / 30 30 30 70 MLC 71 89 63 80 / 20 20 20 60 BVO 65 86 49 72 / 40 10 0 20 FYV 66 84 57 78 / 40 40 30 80 BYV 66 83 55 79 / 30 40 30 80 MKO 69 87 58 76 / 30 20 10 60 MIO 67 84 51 72 / 40 20 10 50 F10 69 87 57 76 / 20 10 10 50 HHW 69 87 66 80 / 20 20 20 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.