textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 948 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Fire weather concerns return today and again Sunday. Locally critical fire weather conditions in Osage and Pawnee counties today.

- A strong cold front Sunday will bring much cooler conditions to the area. Increased thunderstorm chances, with a low potential for severe weather, along the front in southeast Oklahoma, western Arkansas.

UPDATE

Issued at 948 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Adjustments to temperature, dew point and wind/wind gust trends have been made leveraging the latest near term model data and observational data. The impact of this has been a forecast of more concerning fire weather conditions than earlier forecast, mainly for parts of northeast Oklahoma. Locally critical fire weather conditions are now forecast for western parts of Osage and Pawnee counties and a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1 pm to 8 pm today.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Cooler air has moved in as the weather system that brought active weather to the area has departed to the east. Tonight will be mostly clear and calm, allowing temperatures to drop off. Widespread lows in the 30s are expected, with portions of northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma seeing a light freeze.

Downslope southwesterly flow will develop by late morning, with a quick recovery in temperatures. High temperatures will reach the mid 60s for most of the area, slightly cooler for northwest Arkansas where remnant cold air will hold on a bit more effectively.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The pattern for the next few days will feature northwest flow, but with the forecast area being well south of the upper level jet. This will encourage the rapid succession of storm systems to the north. The unusually low pressure across the northern Plains will more or less keep southerly flow locked in place through Sunday. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will persist through that time. Temperatures will rise each day, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s on Friday and mid to upper 70s on Saturday.

An amplifying upper level trough will finally buckle the pattern Sunday, sending a strong cold front through the area. The speed and trajectory will limit rain chances, but there may be just enough lift for a few showers in northwest Arkansas. The air moving in will be quite cold, but does not appear to be well timed with the shower chance, so presumably it will just be rain. A few flurries could mix in with the rain across the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas but will cause no impacts. The wind behind the front appears to be notable. There is already good ensemble support to suggest gusts of 40-50 mph may occur Sunday afternoon.

Cool and breezy conditions will tarry into Monday. Monday morning looks quite cold, with a widespread freeze for the forecast area. Those who started gardens early will probably need to take steps to protect tender plants, especially further north. Cool and breezy conditions will remain into the afternoon, with highs in the 40s. Ensemble guidance is already confident in a very large and anomalously warm pattern developing into the middle of next week. Temperatures will likely surge well above normal with essentially no chance of precipitation.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Big changes in wind direction/speed/gusts through the forecast required more lines in the TAF than usual for this type of forecast. Surface winds switch around to the south and southwest by afternoon and become gusty. Some sites back off during the evening before picking back up later on in the night. A strong SWrly LLJ necessitates an inclusion of LLWS at all sites aft 02Z this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 65 44 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 61 42 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 65 44 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 65 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 61 42 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 59 45 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 62 43 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 61 42 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 F10 64 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 64 41 73 48 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-059.

AR...None.