textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Unsettled weather persists through into next weekend. There will be multiple opportunities for heavy rainfall and some severe weather.

- Confidence remains high with the unsettled pattern however confidence is much lower in specific timing and placement for higher storm chances.

- Below average temperatures are forecast this work week, returning above average this upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Stalled boundary extending from SW OK through NE TX is the ongoing focus for showers and storms and this activity is likely to gradually spread into far SE OK through early morning. A brief strong storm is possible through sunrise. The low level jet will become more southerly and strengthen overnight with resultant upglide north of the aforementioned boundary serving to increase shower and storm chances early in the day across portions of E OK though coverage is uncertain. The coverage and duration of early day convection will influence the expanding unstable corridor associated with the lifting warm front. This frontal zone will likely orient the higher storm chances NW to SE across the western half of the forecast area with lesser chances further east. While storms are likely to grow upscale into one or more complexes Tuesday through Tuesday night there remains considerable uncertainty on placement and intensity.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The northwesterly flow aloft will persist into Wednesday night and maintain a favorable pattern for additional thunderstorm complexes to track across the region. Again the favored corridor will be influenced by prior days activity so precip chances remain rather broad at this point. The flow aloft becomes slightly more westerly by Thursday with a stronger wave passing across the central Plains and higher storm chances will be shown across the northern portion of the forecast area through Thursday night. The trailing cold front from the Thursday wave may become a focus across the region on Friday, however rising mid level heights are expected as the pattern features stronger troughing to the west and downstream ridging into the southern Plains. This would mark a reprieve from the near daily MCS pattern and generally trend hotter and drier for early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Pesky low-level stratus has remained thick across portions of far northeast OK and far northwest AR, generally from KTUL-KFYV and points northward. Elsewhere, clouds have been gradually eroding. VFR should prevail at all sites by 01-02z, through there remains some uncertainty if clouds will be able to clear across northwest AR. Overnight stays most quiet, but light fog and patchy stratus may develop near sunrise Tuesday. Maintained TEMPO groups at most sites for brief reduction of vis through mid morning. Low-level MVFR cigs will increase in coverage by mid-late morning and all TAF sites are expected to be impacted through at least early-mid afternoon. Some clearing and lifting of clouds will likely occur by midday or so, but intermittent MVFR/VFR will continue into the evening. A couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms may occur Tuesday. First round of storms is forecast to impact portions of southeast OK, potentially impacting KMLC, near daybreak, though latest hi-res model runs have been keeping best precipitation chances just west of the terminal through the morning. Another round of convection is expected to develop late in the afternoon or early in the evening, impacting mainly the northeast OK TAF sites through the end of the TAF period. Other terminals may be impacted beyond the period.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 69 85 71 86 / 0 60 60 40 FSM 72 86 71 87 / 10 30 50 50 MLC 72 88 73 90 / 50 60 60 30 BVO 64 83 69 84 / 0 30 50 40 FYV 68 84 68 83 / 0 20 50 50 BYV 65 82 66 83 / 0 10 50 50 MKO 70 84 70 85 / 10 40 60 40 MIO 65 84 68 84 / 0 20 40 50 F10 69 86 70 87 / 20 60 60 40 HHW 73 87 73 91 / 60 60 60 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.