textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1135 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Rain/storm chances Sunday morning far NE OK into NW AR.

- Rain chances decrease and hot and humid weather will prevail Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Afternoon heat index values may reach triple digits in a few spots each day.

- Unsettled weather returns late next week into next weekend with daily shower and storm chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Storms that developed on the dryline during the afternoon were mainly near and north of the Kansas border and stayed west of the forecast area. The main storm activity during the afternoon was over NW AR, first with more spotty storms and then with an outflow boundary from storms over SW MO. Those storms have faded this evening. The latest HRRR keeps the overnight fairly quiet across the area, aside from some elevated spotty showers. There are hints in the data of some warm advection showers and storms Sunday morning in the vicinity of and on the cool side of the outflow boundary draped across far NE OK and NW AR. Rising upper heights on Sunday with the departure of the central CONUS upper trough will result in a hot and humid day. With highs in the low 90s expected, afternoon heat indices will touch the triple digit mark in several locations. The latest HRRR does indicate an isolated shower or storm could develop across NE OK along a surface trough and on the edge of the cap over NW AR around and especially after 00Z Sunday evening.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Upper heights continue to rise into Monday as the central CONUS ridge amplifies/broadens and another afternoon with highs in the low 90s and heat indices near the triple digits is expected. The upper ridge holds firm on Tuesday with another hot and humid day on tap. Temperatures and humidity will dial back a bit by Wednesday and Thursday as an expansive surface high centered over the Great Lakes back-doors some cooler and drier air into the forecast area from the east and northeast. The best rain/storm chances should stay west of the forecast area in this scenario. The central CONUS ridge shifts east during the latter part of the week, and rain/storm chances will ramp up next Friday into Saturday with SW flow aloft increasing ahead of a weak southern stream trough over the Southwest.

Lacy

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A brief period of MVFR ceilings are forecast this morning before becoming scattered mid clouds late morning/early afternoon. The greater potential for low clouds is KBVO, where MVFR ceilings associated with an outflow boundary were pushing southeast toward the CWA. Low shower/storm chances continue this morning for mainly parts of northwest Arkansas, and then for far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas afternoon/evening. Will continue to keep TAFs dry at this time due to uncertainty in coverage/storm initiation. Cloud cover this evening into tonight looks to be mainly high clouds. Winds through the period start out east to south, become breezy/gusty during the day out of the south, and then weaken again this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 93 73 94 71 / 0 0 0 20 FSM 93 72 95 72 / 20 10 0 10 MLC 93 75 95 72 / 10 0 0 10 BVO 93 71 94 68 / 10 10 0 20 FYV 89 73 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 BYV 87 69 89 66 / 40 20 10 10 MKO 92 72 93 70 / 10 0 0 10 MIO 91 71 92 68 / 10 20 0 10 F10 93 72 95 70 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 92 73 94 72 / 10 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.