textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- A couple near normal days in store following the frontal passage

- More near record heat mid to late week, along with increased fire weather concerns.

- Low rain chances late this week with another front.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

The cold front has made its way through the region this evening ushering in noticeably cooler air overnight tonight into Monday morning. Lows by Monday morning will drop into the low 40s or upper 30s across the north, with lows in the 50s across the south. Gusty northerly winds will likely continue in some capacity overnight tonight, possibly lessening some toward sunrise Monday. Monday will see a drastic reduction in the record heat of late, though highs will still trend to be near or slightly above average for late March in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Breezy northeasterly winds will continue, which combined with low RH values in the 25 percent range will maintain elevated fire weather concerns for any ongoing fires and new fires throughout the area.

Surface ridging will slide east by Monday evening, with a return to southerly flow over the region. Therefore, overnight lows Monday will trend slightly warmer in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A quick moving shortwave will also dive southeastward overnight Monday into Tuesday morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This should at the very least lead to increasing cloud cover over the area. Though increasing lower level moisture could lead to some sprinkles or light rain showers on Tuesday morning for parts of the area. Any amounts will be very light as it looks right now. Cloud cover will likely linger into Tuesday afternoon, especially across eastern portions of the forecast area, under the influence of the passing wave. Thus, have trended temps cooler than the NBM for Tuesday, especially for portions of northwest Arkansas.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Mid and upper level ridging will dominate much of the rest of the week, meaning a quick warmup is in store through the middle part of the week with mostly dry conditions continuing. Highs will push to near record levels again by Wednesday and especially on Thursday as mid 90s look likely again in this time frame. Southerly surface winds will also increase by mid to late week, again raising fire weather concerns across most of the region. Guidance is in general agreement that another cold front will move through the Plains Thursday night into Friday dropping temperatures back down to near normal levels heading into the weekend. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible with the frontal passage, mainly across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, but chances appear low at this time for much in the way of widespread rain and any amounts look generally light.

Signals are starting to point to a pattern change toward the middle part of next week with more western CONUS troughing pushing the ridge south and eastward allowing for increasing shower and storm chances over the Plains.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. North to northeast winds will occasionally gust to over 20 knots through the day Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 66 48 70 52 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 71 47 68 49 / 0 10 10 0 MLC 70 51 74 55 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 63 44 71 45 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 64 44 64 47 / 0 20 20 0 BYV 61 44 64 47 / 0 10 10 0 MKO 69 49 70 51 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 61 45 67 49 / 0 10 0 0 F10 68 50 74 54 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 70 52 74 55 / 0 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.