textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Increasing rain chances mainly south of I-40 today into Friday. Thunderstorms are not expected.

- Low impact weather this weekend before additional thunderstorm chances return toward the middle of next week. Some severe weather potential will exist but details are unclear at this range.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Widespread clouds and chilly conditions exist areawide today. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of Texas in response to a disturbance moving through the region. The far northern fringes of this activity may skirt parts of far southeast Oklahoma this afternoon and into the evening, with a low chance of light rain. In addition, another batch of scattered light rain showers is ongoing along and north of the Oklahoma and Kansas border. Soundings this morning indicate quite a bit of dry air beneath the mid level echoes so have just included sprinkles along the Kansas and Missouri borders this afternoon and evening. The overnight should be largely dry, except for possibly right along the Red River, with another night of largely below normal low temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Friday will likely feature more of the same, with perhaps greater coverage of light rain and a slightly better chance of measurable rain amounts across southeast Oklahoma than today in association with the passage of the main upper level trough. Another day with high temperatures in the 60s is likely, although a few spots in northeast Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley may touch 70. The passage of the trough, the expectation is for decreasing cloud cover and the shower and thunderstorm potential to push farther to the east for the weekend. Overnight low temperatures will be cooler in the expected spots Saturday morning and Sunday morning given the placement of surface high pressure. During the day Sunday, south to southwest low level winds will make a return as the surface high shifts to the south and east and low pressure organizes in the Central and Southern High Plains. Wind speeds and gusts have been adjusted upward leveraging the NBM 90th percentile during the day Sunday. This is a favorable scenario for a quick warmup, with temperatures warming to at or above normal Sunday afternoon. Windy conditions are likely to persist most days early to middle part of next week, along with continued seasonably warm temperatures and an increase in low level moisture. Early next week, an upper level storm system will develop over the southwestern United States, with periods of showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday night into Tuesday timed with disturbances that move through the area ahead of its approach. At least a low chance of severe weather may occur early to mid week with this pattern, especially if a front lingers across the area as depicted in longer range model data. Both temperatures and POPs for the middle of the week have some level of uncertainty given the uncertainty with where this front may end up. Expect fine tuning in the days to come.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period for all sites. Mid and high clouds will continue to move through the region through tonight and into Friday, with low potential for a few passing sprinkles or showers. Any rainfall is likely to remain light and non-impactful. Light north/northeast winds become calm overnight, then increase again by Friday morning into the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 48 69 45 70 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 51 71 47 72 / 0 10 10 0 MLC 50 69 44 72 / 0 20 0 0 BVO 44 69 42 70 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 45 68 40 68 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 47 65 41 65 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 48 68 44 69 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 46 66 42 66 / 10 0 0 0 F10 48 68 43 70 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 53 65 47 71 / 20 40 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.