textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Strong wind gusts persist into early afternoon across much of the forecast area. - Additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday evening with increasing heavy rainfall potential.

- Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A Wind Advisory remain in effect for much of the area until 1 PM with gusts up to 45 mph. Wind gust potential will decrease later this afternoon as stronger 925-850 mb flow exits the region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon across far eastern portions of the area, mainly NW AR, as the upper level trough axis passes overhead. Southerly flow and low level moisture advection increase going into tonight as a sfc low expands over the central high plains. Some WAA showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will remain possible through the night across far E OK and NW AR, expanding into SE OK by early Friday. This will result in another very warm night, with lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

During the day Friday, the aforementioned sfc low ejects northeast with a cold front sagging southeast towards the FA. By late afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop along and ahead of the front as it moves into the CWA. Flow will generally run parallel to the front, favoring a linear storm mode. Sufficient instability and shear values will foster a threat for severe weather, with large hail (initially) and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards. Low level wind fields do not appear to be overly favorable, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out as well. These storms will gradually move southeast through the evening and early overnight hours, with highest impacts expected across northeast Oklahoma. Storms continue to expand into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas well into the night, though waning instability will likely reduce the severe threat.

PWATs will again be approaching climatological maximums for this time of year, and given potential for training storms, heavy rainfall will be a concern Friday/Friday night. While the recent dry weather will continue to help reduce the overall flooding potential, several areas picked up 1 to 3 inches of rain Wednesday night. This will pose a locally higher risk for flash flooding in these areas.

Precipitation exits Saturday morning and early afternoon with drier and cooler air filling in behind it. Highs on Saturday and Sunday should be held in the 60s, with decreasing clouds. Temperatures rebound slightly Monday and Tuesday as upper level ridging develops overhead. The synoptic pattern is projected to progress by mid to late week with southwest flow eventually overspreading the southern plains ahead of deepening W CONUS troughing. This permits gradually increasing temperatures and moisture, as well as additional rain/ thunder opportunities late week. Given the time of year, this may imply additional severe weather chances, but the rains are greatly needed as severe to extreme drought remains in place across E OK and NW AR.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the evening and into the overnight hours across the region. Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds will relax somewhat overnight, but will still remain breezy for many locations. A deck of MVFR cigs is expected to develop and spread over all sites by late tonight/early tomorrow morning and last through the morning hours at least over E OK and NW AR. Cigs should lift to low end VFR by early afternoon as southerly winds once again gust to 25 to 30 knots across the area. Scattered thunderstorms will become possible by the end of the period across NE OK sites as a cold front enters the region form the north. Better chances look to be from 00Z onward but some PROB30 groups are introduced in this package for some of the earliest arrival possibilities.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 68 81 51 66 / 0 60 100 20 FSM 67 85 56 70 / 30 60 100 70 MLC 68 83 54 68 / 10 60 100 50 BVO 62 80 47 66 / 0 70 90 10 FYV 64 82 51 66 / 30 50 100 60 BYV 66 80 52 63 / 20 50 100 60 MKO 67 81 51 65 / 10 50 100 40 MIO 65 79 47 62 / 10 60 100 20 F10 67 80 50 66 / 0 60 100 30 HHW 66 81 54 68 / 20 50 90 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.