textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 824 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Cooler, but still above average temperatures persist through the week.

- Some thunderstorm chance returns by the weekend and early next week.

- Much cooler and more seasonal weather expected behind a strong midweek cold front next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 824 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Much like yesterday, a band of high-based showers has popped up over the Arklatex, and have inserted a low chance of showers over portions of far SE OK in the near term. Otherwise, expect lots of sunshine and some increase in high cloud through the day. Above average temps will prevail, though still not to the levels we saw last week.

Lacy

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Main change made for tonight through sunrise Wednesday was adding a low chance (20% or less) of showers near the Red River just before sunrise. Confidence is very low at this time, but hi-res models suggest some convergence occurring below 700mb in an area where PWATs happen to be exceeding 1.5 inches near the Red River. There is still uncertainty how this will evolve, but there is enough evidence to support a few showers through mid morning.

Otherwise, tranquil weather will persevere Wednesday as upper- level ridging expands northward from eastern TX. At the surface, generally light winds will gradually transition from northeast to more easterly by the afternoon. The northeasterly/easterly flow should continue to draw in dry air and keep precipitation chance near zero. Underneath partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, afternoon temperatures are forecast to warm up into the mid to upper 80s north of I-40 and low to mid 90s south of I-40, warmest near the Red River.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Near-persistent weather conditions are forecast for the second half of the workweek. The aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge axis is anticipated to remain fixed overhead Thursday and through much of the day on Friday. Surface winds will remain light and will slowly veer from east to southeast by Friday. Temperatures, despite being noticeably cooler as of late, will remain a handful of degrees warmer than seasonal average through Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Expect daytime highs to range from the mid to upper 80s (north) to low to mid 90s (south) and nighttime lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Upper-level ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Friday into Friday night as a trough, with embedded shortwaves, begins to moves over the Plains. Deterministic models show a weak shortwave trough sideswiping the northwest corner of the CWA Friday morning and into the afternoon. This will bring low precipitation chances west of US-75 and north of I-44. No impacts expected from this. The residual ridging overhead will keep the main brunt of the trough and moisture plume northwest of the forecast area, but as the ridge flattens late Friday night and into Saturday morning, a better chance of showers and thunderstorms will occur for portions of eastern OK, with chances likely persisting into the afternoon Saturday. Even better chances of precipitation will arrive Saturday evening/night and into Sunday as the main lobe of energy from the trough moves across the area. The GFS and UKMET have been persistent with a more robust shortwave trough moving across the area Saturday afternoon and evening, showing widespread precipitation chances Saturday night into Sunday. Despite shortwave ridging moving over the area on Monday, low precipitation chances will persist for much of the area as a subtle warm frontal boundary moves through the area.

Models and ensembles continue to indicate a vigorous, fall-like trough moving over the Plains on Tuesday, with areawide showers and thunderstorms associated with it through the daytime Tuesday. The trough will also bring in a decently strong cold front that is expected to move through sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Timing of the trough and surface front are subject to change. The front is forecast to drop temperatures near to slightly below average by midweek. Better details to come.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Patchy stratus and fog will impact far NW AR terminals through mid morning with a low, but non zero, chance of brief impacts at other forecast terminals. Expect VFR conditions area wide by late morning and then persisting through the remainder of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 87 64 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 92 64 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 93 65 92 63 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 84 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 87 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 82 57 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 90 63 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 83 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 F10 89 63 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 94 67 91 64 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.