textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1112 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 - Limited heavy rainfall potential for east central OK and west central AR through early this afternoon.

- Limited severe potential late this evening and tonight across northeast OK.

- Potentially more widespread severe weather threat may develop Friday into Saturday, with continued heavy rainfall potential.

- Unsettled weather returns early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tonight) Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Corridor of elevated convection persists north of a retreating warm front located over far southeast OK late this morning. Overall intensity continues to wane across southeast OK into east central AR at present, though some very localized additional amounts of a half to one inch are still possible near and a little south of the I-40 corridor over the next few hours. As warm front continues lifting north through this afternoon and evening, it is possible that subtle energy in southwest flow aloft may spark additional isolated showers or storms, but these are not expected to be severe.

Focus for more robust convection will shift into southeast OK and northwest TX this evening, with CAMs suggesting an evolution from supercells into an intense cluster moving northeast and approaching far northeast OK sometime after 06z. Expectations remain that this will begin to weaken as the overall environment becomes less favorable through eastern OK and western AR. Still a damaging wind threat may carry into areas mainly west of Highway 75 early tonight.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Thursday) Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Friday still has the potential to be a more active severe weather day across the local area, though this threat is highly conditional. Strong western CONUS upper low is forecast to undergo a split as it moves across the Rockies with northern branch eventually moving across the plains and southern branch cutting off to the southwest. As northern stream wave moves east, seasonably strong southwest flow will spread over our region, but stronger forcing should remain to our north.

There are also significant uncertainties with the thermodynamic environment. Ongoing morning storms across northeast OK will most likely weaken by afternoon, but could have some impact on the overall environment if it lingers. In addition a strong EML will spread over the region and result in strong capping which could be tough to break given relatively weak forcing within the warm sector. Some guidance continues to break out convection during the afternoon within the open warm sector, which would pose a threat of all modes of severe weather. By evening, cold front overtakes the dry line located to our west and this likely will force a band of thunderstorms Friday night and perhaps into Saturday morning. Severe threat with this will be lesser. Heavy rainfall threat remains present as PWAT values remain well above 90th percentile, with stronger storms capable of 3-4" per hour rain rates locally.

As cold front sweeps south by Saturday, generally cooler and drier conditions prevail aside from parts of southeast OK which remain near the 850 mb front. This eventually pushes south with rain chances ending, likely Saturday evening. Cooler air will result in potential for a light frost or freeze near OK/KS border and perhaps far northwest AR. The SW CONUS cutoff low is eventually expected to phase with northern stream energy next week, with rain and thunderstorm chances returning Tue/Wed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two will persist across SE OK over the next couple of hours. KMLC and KFSM will have the highest chances of precipitation over the next few hours. MVFR and IFR cigs should transition to more prevailing VFR by late afternoon or early this evening for most terminals. VFR is expected to be short-lived as MVFR cigs are expected to prevail by or around sunrise Friday. Another storm complex is forecast to develop across western/central OK tonight and push into portions of NE OK after midnight tonight. At this time, it appears KBVO, KTUL, and KRVS have the best chance being impacted by this convection through at least mid morning. Have included TEMPO groups to capture this chance. Otherwise, winds will remain out of the south, remaining light through this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase and become gusty this evening, overnight, and into tomorrow.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 71 63 76 45 / 20 50 70 70 FSM 76 61 80 58 / 90 20 60 90 MLC 75 63 77 51 / 80 30 80 80 BVO 71 59 75 41 / 20 70 60 60 FYV 73 59 77 50 / 60 20 70 90 BYV 71 61 76 55 / 50 20 50 90 MKO 73 61 75 48 / 60 40 80 80 MIO 70 61 74 45 / 20 40 70 80 F10 73 61 75 47 / 70 40 80 70 HHW 76 62 76 58 / 70 20 80 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.