textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1041 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Mild conditions continue into the weekend with much above normal temperatures likely next week. Medium to high chance of daily record high temperatures.

- Strong and gusty southerly winds are expected at times, but increasing low level moisture should limit the overall fire weather threat.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1041 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Cool and dry northerly flow is shifting to easterly as the surface high advances to the east. Mostly clear skies are expected into the afternoon, with highs generally in the 50s. Increasing southerly flow tonight will result in warm and moist advection. Low level clouds will fill in for most areas, starting in southeast OK. The combination of breezy southerly winds and cloud cover will allow for warmer low temperatures, with upper 30s near the KS border and 40s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1041 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Widespread cloud cover is expected Monday morning, with low clouds clearing out from west to east during the day. CAM guidance has made the forecast murkier than it appeared yesterday, with more of a signal in some CAMs to hold onto the clouds and cooler temperatures. This is certainly a possibility, and if it occurred temperatures could end up quite a bit cooler than forecast, but for now the majority of guidance still points towards a mild afternoon with highs in the mid 60s for Oklahoma, and near 60 F in northwest AR.

Low clouds may linger into Tuesday, particularly for southeast OK and portions of northwest AR. With dew points close to 60 F by this point, some minor lift may wring out some sprinkles or light showers for southeastern portions of the forecast area. Like Monday, some guidance wants to hold onto clouds Tuesday which would significantly reduce high temperatures. The NAM keeps highs in the 50s while most other guidance says 70s are likely with clearer skies and breezy southwest winds. For now, still leaned the forecast heavily towards that outcome.

Regardless of how quickly surface warmth builds in, upper level temperatures will become anomalously warm Tuesday afternoon. With 500 hPa heights and 850 hPa temperatures outside of the EPS climatology for Tuesday to Friday. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Christmas morning. Morning lows will be well above normal, with lows on Christmas morning being in the low 60s. The majority of guidance keeps similar warmth going on Friday as well before somewhat cooler conditions develop over the weekend. It's worth mentioning that low level moisture values will also be near the climatological max for this time of year, with enough humidity to at least notice it (dew points in the low 60s). Several record highs and record high lows (warmest low on record) are expected, with some monthly records also in jeopardy. Considering the warm, dry, and breezy conditions there will be some limited fire weather potential at times, but the elevated RH will limit this potential.

Model guidance is now split for next weekend. Some guidance wants to keep temperatures in the 70s, but other guidance brings a boundary into the area with cooler temperatures (still above normal) and a slight chance of showers. Continued to blend these two outcomes for the extended as confidence is low.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

High clouds over the region early evening will give way to broken/overcast low end VFR becoming MVFR tonight across the CWA. MVFR ceilings are forecast to begin scattering Monday afternoon from west to east, though short-term guidance can be bullish on how quickly these clouds can move out. For now will keep broken MVFR/low end VFR over northwest Arkansas TAF site through the end of the TAF period and add a mention of scattered cloud decks for eastern Oklahoma. Winds through the period start out east to southeast and become southerly during the day Monday. If clouds can break up, winds gusts of 15-20KT could develop Monday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 43 65 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 42 65 52 75 / 0 0 10 0 MLC 46 67 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 39 65 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 40 61 52 71 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 38 63 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 43 65 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 40 62 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 F10 44 66 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 47 67 56 75 / 0 0 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.