textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1054 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026 - Well above average temperatures, periodic breezy winds, and low relative humidities promote limited fire weather concerns Thursday into this weekend.

- Low chance of rain late Wednesday night into Thursday across far NE OK and NW AR. Any rainfall will remain light. Additional rain chances arrive late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1054 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Warm conditions will continue Wednesday, with increasing dew points and much lighter winds keeping fire weather concerns in check. Partly cloudy skies will prevail, with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1054 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

An upper level disturbance will move across the area late Wednesday night and early Thursday along with a weak surface cold front. A few light showers will be possible across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, but any rainfall will remain light. Temperatures will not cool much following the passage of the front, but north winds will increase a bit and dew points will fall off, raising fire weather concerns somewhat by Thursday afternoon.

Warm and dry weather will continue Friday and Saturday, with occasionally breezy winds raising fire weather concerns. A stronger frontal boundary looks to push into the area by Sunday and remain in the vicinity through the first part of next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during this time frame, and temperatures will cool to the north of the frontal boundary, with large uncertainty at this time as to just how far south the front will advance and how much cool air will make it down into our area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Latest infrared satellite imagery shows low-level stratus developing underneath BKN high clouds, spreading across portions of southeast OK early this morning. A few to sct low clouds may roll over KMLC and KFSM around sunrise this morning and cannot rule out brief MVFR for a couple of hours. Was not confident in this to include in TAFs. NAM guidance has been the most aggressive maintaining low cigs, even spreading MVFR cigs north and west from southeast OK as the morning progresses. Although this is a possibility, confidence of this occurring is too low to mention this in TAFs right now. Will keep VFR prevailing into this evening before better chances of MVFR conditions late this evening and overnight tonight. A few models show fog developing after midnight tonight, closer to sunrise Thursday, for much of western AR and portions of southeast OK. Included TEMPO groups at KFYV, KXNA, KROG, and KFSM for reduced vis after midnight. Light winds will prevail today, generally out of the south/southwest. A weak cold front will arrive overnight tonight, gradually turning winds out of the north late in the period.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 46 70 41 / 0 10 10 0 FSM 73 47 74 41 / 0 10 10 0 MLC 75 48 75 41 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 72 40 69 34 / 0 10 10 0 FYV 71 42 70 35 / 0 10 20 0 BYV 69 46 66 38 / 0 10 20 0 MKO 74 47 71 41 / 0 10 10 0 MIO 70 43 66 39 / 0 20 10 0 F10 75 47 71 41 / 0 10 10 0 HHW 75 51 75 46 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.