textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 - Gusty southerly winds return Wednesday and Thursday.

- Multiple opportunities for showers and storms Friday into early next week.

- Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat exists Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Weak upper level shortwave over northern Texas Tuesday night will slide east southeast through Wednesday morning and exit the southern Plains Wednesday afternoon. In response, passing high clouds Tuesday night across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas should scatter out during the day Wednesday. At the surface, low temperatures Wednesday morning should be slightly warmer with 40s to lower 50s common. With the shortwave exiting, southerly winds are expected to become breezy/gusty Wednesday afternoon before weakening again Wednesday night.

The southerly low level flow also becomes more common over eastern Texas behind the exiting shortwave. This will allow for increasing low level moisture to begin advecting back into the CWA Wednesday night. Before the low level moisture reaches the CWA Wednesday afternoon, gusty winds along with afternoon temperatures into the mid/upper 70s could create localized areas of limited fire weather danger west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A low pressure system moves through the northern Plains Wednesday and over the Great Lakes region Thursday. At the same time, a trailing cold front is forecast to drop southeast through the Plains and set up across Kansas during the day Thursday. South of this boundary, continued breezy/gusty southerly low level flow will continue to transport moisture into the CWA and also continue a warming trend with upper 70s/lower 80s Thursday afternoon. Some model/ensemble solutions continue to hint at isolated/widely scattered showers trying to develop across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas Thursday within the moisture return. For now will continue to keep PoPs just below mentionable criteria and increase mid level cloud cover as a result.

The cold front slows its progression southward over Kansas Thursday night while a compact mid level impulse/vorticity lobe lifts east northeast over the boundary. The combination of these features along with a 40-50KT low level jet over an increasing area of warm advection will help to develop shower/storm chances Thursday night into Friday along and near the boundary. There is potential for this boundary to near the Oklahoma and Arkansas borders during the day Friday, which will spread shower/storm chances across mainly northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. The boundary looks to retreat northward Friday night, which could give a lull in precip chances to the CWA.

An area of low pressure is progged to move onto the West Coast Friday night/Saturday with a piece of energy breaking off and becoming a lead mid level impulse moving through the Plains Saturday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the day Saturday out west and move into mainly eastern Oklahoma, with lesser potential for western Arkansas.

Increasing low level jet and the parent area of low pressure pushing out into the Plains Sunday will aid in storm chances spreading back into the CWA Saturday night, and then continuing across the CWA through Sunday evening. Ahead of the parent wave, moisture advection as well as surface/elevated instability look to be maximized, which creates limited severe potentials and a heavy rain threat Sunday afternoon/evening. The parent wave is forecast to exit Sunday evening/night, while a second area of low pressure quickly moves into the region in its wake. Thus, another round of shower and storm chances develop across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Monday into Tuesday before the wave exits. Latest model solutions indicate low level moisture and instability remain in place with this second wave and as such, limited severe potentials and a heavy rain threat exist Monday for the CWA. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main severe threat, though a low tornado threat exists as well Sunday and Monday. Details with timing, locations, and QPF will continue to be refined through the next several days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South winds will gust to near 25 knots at times today at the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 78 54 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 79 53 82 58 / 0 0 10 0 MLC 78 55 80 62 / 0 0 10 0 BVO 77 50 80 58 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 75 50 78 58 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 75 54 77 59 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 77 52 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 76 52 79 59 / 0 0 0 10 F10 77 53 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 77 54 78 58 / 0 0 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.