textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1044 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 - A sharp warming trend is expected today into Monday.

- Low rain chances are forecast ahead of an approaching upper wave and associated front Tuesday, mainly across far SE OK into west- central AR.

- Warm and dry weather resumes Thursday into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1044 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The surface high is now well south of the area, with southerly flow beginning to strengthen. Temperatures will warm up into the 40s to low 50s across the area this afternoon under mostly clear skies. A weak boundary will slide into the area overnight, weakening the southerly flow, but not doing much else. Temperatures will be warmer than the last few nights, with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1044 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Breezy southerly flow becomes reestablished Monday, pushing temperatures even warmer. High temperatures will jump into the 50s to low 60s. There is some potential for high clouds to hold temperatures back a little, but for now stuck pretty close to the NBM. These temperatures should finally help much of the lingering snow and sleet to melt off. A weak cold front will then push through Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures behind the front will cool at least slightly. Some guidance wants to develop low clouds that stick around through much of the day Tuesday, which might keep high temperatures as low as the low 40s. Other guidance keeps us clear with highs in the mid 50s. Decided to lean into a middle of the road approach, with low clouds for half the day and highs mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s. Moisture advection ahead of the front may allow for a few showers to form ahead of the front Tuesday for southeast OK and west-central AR, but total accumulation looks quite minimal.

Temperatures remain on the cool side Wednesday, with a weak PV anomaly potentially kicking off a few flurries or sprinkles north of I-40. No accumulation will occur. Strong upper level ridging and southerly flow resumes into Thursday, which will be much warmer. In fact, high temperatures in the low to mid 60s are now expected Thursday onwards into the weekend. No additional rain is expected until at least Sunday when a weak system may brush the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR is anticipated to prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period, with a FEW to SCT high clouds passing overhead. High clouds will further increase late in the forecast period. Breezy southwest winds, with occasional gusts to 20 knots, will persist through late afternoon before winds become light and variable later this evening into the overnight hours. Maintained a TEMPO group of reduced visibilities at KBVO around sunrise tomorrow morning. Forecast confidence of this occurring remains fairly low, but the potential still exists for a handful of hours with visibilities dropping below 6SM.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 26 58 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 24 59 38 50 / 0 0 10 30 MLC 30 63 40 52 / 0 0 10 10 BVO 21 53 28 47 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 26 58 35 45 / 0 0 10 20 BYV 28 58 37 44 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 28 61 36 49 / 0 0 10 10 MIO 24 54 32 44 / 0 0 0 0 F10 29 64 38 51 / 0 0 10 0 HHW 29 62 45 55 / 0 0 20 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.