textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the work week. Heat Advisories are in effect Wednesday and Thursday.

- Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds, especially on Saturday across southeast Oklahoma.

- Low afternoon shower/storm chances mainly across NW AR through Thursday. Higher rain potential arrives this weekend, along with cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tonight) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

To begin the period, high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern resulting in above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. A Heat Advisory continues for much of eastern Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley through 7 pm this evening, with maximum heat indices forecast to be as high as 109 this afternoon. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening due to daytime heating. Overall, the severe risk will remain low, and most locations will likely miss out on the rain. The overnight tonight should be on the quieter side with continued above normal low temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The unseasonable heat will extend into at least Thursday. Heat advisories have been continued into Thursday and may be necessary for some areas Friday into the weekend. The confidence is much lower for the weekend on their necessity, however, with lower dew points expected for Saturday. A cold front will approach and move through the area late in the weekend, bringing substantially cooler conditions to the region extending into the early part of the next week. The front will also bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, particularly for the latter part of the weekend and into early next week. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of all of this, with recent data pushed about a day later than earlier expectations. In addition to the much welcomed expectation of cooler and wetter conditions, however, is an increase in the fire weather concerns for Saturday, in advance of this system. Southerly winds will become gusty ahead of the front, and along with the continued warm conditions and aforementioned lower dew points, very low relative humidities are forecast. This combination, along with the drought-stricken fuels, will lead to the fire weather concerns, especially across southeast Oklahoma, on Saturday. Given the information we have at the moment and coordination with fire management agencies, this may be a Fire Danger Statement day rather than something stronger.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Outside of any thunderstorm impacts, VFR conditions are likely through the forecast period for all sites. Showers and thunderstorms this evening will continue to weaken with dry conditions likely overnight. Additional afternoon showers and storms will be possible for much of E OK and NW AR Thursday, though probability of impacts at any one site remain too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Amendments may be required. Outside of any local storm influence, winds are likely to remain less than 10 kts out of the south with SCT mid/high clouds through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 78 99 77 98 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 76 102 74 101 / 0 20 0 0 MLC 76 102 75 100 / 0 20 0 0 BVO 72 100 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 72 98 72 97 / 0 20 0 0 BYV 74 97 73 97 / 0 20 10 0 MKO 74 99 74 97 / 0 20 0 0 MIO 74 98 73 98 / 0 20 10 0 F10 74 100 74 99 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 75 99 74 100 / 0 20 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>058- 060>071-073>075-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ055>058- 060>063-066>071-073>075-172-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ129-219-220.