textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1150 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Much warmer today with increasing south winds raising fire weather concerns across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive late tonight into Wednesday morning across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain totals will remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and accumulating snow and ice.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Southerly winds will increase and become gusty this afternoon resulting in warmer temperatures returning across the area. Highs will creep into the upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon. The increasing winds and warmer temperatures will also result in an uptick in fire weather concerns, mainly across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, as much of the area remains dry. Lows tonight will be noticeably warmer as southerly flow continues with lows just below freezing across the north while temps remains in the upper 30s across the south.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A weak cold front will move into the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. A plume of tropical moisture will also advance north overnight tonight across southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas ahead of the frontal boundary. This should result in scattered shower activity developing ahead of the front from early Wednesday morning through the early afternoon hours. Amounts generally remain light at less than a quarter of an inch before precipitation wraps up from northwest to southeast with the push of drier air into the area behind the front. Temperatures behind the front won't be overly cold, topping out near normal again on Wednesday across much of the area. Another nice day is in store on Thursday ahead of big changes coming for the last part of the week into the weekend.

The main weather impact for this forecast period begins on Friday as a strong Arctic front moves through the area Friday morning. Bitterly cold air will spill south through the day Friday, along with gusty northerly winds dropping wind chill values into the single digits by Friday afternoon. Along with the cold temperatures a storm system is progged to take shape to the west and force precipitation overtop the cold airmass, with a prolonged period of winter precip appearing more likely across a portion of the forecast area through the weekend. The main feature that will play a role in snow/ice amounts is the evolution of a subtropical cutoff low that will be off the Southern California Coast at mid week. How this feature phases with a polar jet shortwave trough dropping south along the western edge of the parent eastern CONUS trough will ultimately determine where and when the heaviest precipitation occurs. This low will pump a continuous flow of Pacific moisture over much of the Southern Plains from Friday through Sunday. Model trends have been a little further south with the subtropical jet and thus heavier snow and ice amounts have shifted southward as well.

Precipitation is progged to start during the day Friday as the mid level warm advection region intensifies over the Southern Plains. Initial precip will likely be rain along the Red River to a winter mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain further north into the Arctic air. A transition to mostly all snow across the forecast area, with the possible exception of far southeast Oklahoma, is likely by Friday evening as the deeper cold air continues to spill south. The system will be slow moving, so winter precip could last from 36 to 48 hours in some locations with the higher likelihood being south of I-40 at this time. Still, the prolonged period of even lighter snow will add up throughout all of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by the time the storm ends on Sunday. The potential for the heaviest snowfall is located generally south of I-40 currently, where some heavier banding could occur closer to the stronger lift associated with the subtropical wave. We are looking at mostly snow impacts for the region, though some icing and sleet potential at the onset of precipitation could result in some ice impacts across the south prior to snow arrival. Amounts will fluctuate in the coming days as trends in the data get a better handle on the track of the prevailing features.

Along with the precip, bitter cold temperatures will last for several days through the weekend, with temperatures in the teens and single digits from Friday evening, lasting into the day Monday. Upper ridging looks to return to the area beginning next week allowing for temperatures to warm, though any snowpack will likely limit the warmup potential as it melts.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through early this evening. Low- level moisture increases and spreads into SE OK and W-C AR late this evening and overnight tonight. As a result, MVFR to low VFR cigs are expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Additionally, light rain is forecast to develop from SE OK to NW AR, with greatest precipitation potential of wet runways at KFSM. Have maintained PROB30 groups for MVFR cigs and precipitation chances. Precipitation and cloud cover quickly clear behind the frontal boundary and VFR will prevail by mid-late morning. Winds turn northerly behind the front Wednesday morning.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 30 52 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 33 57 28 53 / 40 30 0 10 MLC 38 58 30 54 / 30 20 0 10 BVO 25 51 21 48 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 33 53 25 51 / 30 20 0 10 BYV 33 52 27 47 / 20 10 0 0 MKO 34 54 27 51 / 20 10 0 10 MIO 28 50 25 47 / 0 0 0 0 F10 35 55 27 51 / 10 0 0 10 HHW 40 58 37 54 / 60 50 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.