textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Pattern into early next week will maintain daily shower and thunderstorm chances with hot temperatures outside of widespread rain influences.

- Uncertainty will remain high with regard to thunderstorm complexes and their development and eventual track.

- Heat stress remains a concern along with localized fire weather concerns.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Morning MCS continues to influence the regional conditions with persistent convection along and west of Highway 75 and widespread cloud cover helping hold temperatures down further east. This pattern will likely persist long enough to reduce the afternoon heat stress conditions and portions of the ongoing heat advisory have already been cancelled with further adjustments likely pending afternoon trends. Any remnant convection likely wanes by early evening with focus then turning toward the late night into Saturday time frame. Convection ongoing across NE marks the stronger mid level jet that will spread SE overnight into the day Saturday and the associated lift along and north of the remnant convective outflow will likely foster another round of widespread showers and storms. How exactly this scenario evolves differs amongst short term guidance, but the idea will be for increase storm chances overnight and into the day Saturday. Should an organized MCS develop, as suggested by some guidance, then a risk of severe weather will spread across portions of the forecast area. The forecast will trend toward a more convectively influenced scenario through Saturday with an increase in precip chances and a decrease in forecast temperatures. Should less precip develop or track way from the local region then heat advisory levels will be more likely Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The more amplified western ridge axis will maintain seasonably strong northwesterly flow in or near the forecast area through Monday with potential MCS influences again Saturday night into Sunday. The ridge does flatten somewhat by early next week the resultant steering flow may become slightly less favorable for storms spreading into the region, and by late next week the ridge likely becomes more centered over the region which would favor a return to hot and dry. So the near term forecast uncertainty will hopefully lead to some beneficial rains to portions of the area but a prolonged break from the above normal temperatures is not readily apparent.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Outside of thunderstorm impacts, VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the period. Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to decay across E OK this afternoon, with dry conditions becoming increasingly common. Uncertainty is high regarding thunderstorm evolution late this evening into Saturday morning. Some guidance suggests mostly dry conditions overnight before precipitation moves into E OK and NW AR from KS Saturday morning. Other solutions increase shower and storm coverage across the area as early as 06z tonight. Confidence in any one time period was too low to warrant anything more than PROB30s at this time. However, adjustments are likely in the coming forecast cycles as preferred timing is determined. Any storms will have potential to produce strong wind gusts. Some models indicate an MCS may impact the area Saturday morning with potential for severe wind gusts areawide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 75 98 75 96 / 30 40 10 10 FSM 75 99 74 98 / 20 40 20 10 MLC 75 103 74 102 / 20 40 20 0 BVO 70 95 70 94 / 30 30 10 10 FYV 72 96 69 94 / 30 50 20 10 BYV 73 96 69 92 / 30 50 20 10 MKO 72 96 72 96 / 30 50 20 10 MIO 73 95 72 94 / 30 50 10 10 F10 73 99 72 98 / 30 30 10 10 HHW 75 103 75 101 / 20 40 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>057-059>062- 064>068-070-071-074-172-176-272-276-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.