textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 - Scattered storms through mid evening w/ a limited severe weather risk.

- An unsettled weather pattern with multiple opportunities for thunderstorms, along with some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall potential through early next week.

- A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Corridor of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms ongoing across NE OK will slowly spread south and eastward through the remainder of the afternoon. Conditions will become increasingly unstable along and south of the composite outflow and approaching cold front through afternoon. Wind shear remains low but strong to briefly severe multicell clusters are expected to persist within weak low level forcing. Convective coverage is expected to decrease from mid evening onward through the remainder of the night.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The primary focusing boundaries for storms on Saturday are expected to be north and west of the local region. An unstable and weakly capped airmass will reside across the region and a subset of guidance does initiate isolated to scattered storms within the ongoing moisture advection axis, however chances will remain generally low across the immediate area through Saturday evening. Convection will become widespread across the the western Southern Plains by Saturday night and spread eastward across the forecast area early Sunday through Sunday afternoon. Instability is likely to remain somewhat limited given the timing and expected coverage of this convection which is likely to keep any severe weather threat limited.

Monday continue to appear a low storm chance period with focus well north and west of the region. Forcing does increase across the region Tuesday and more so Tuesday night into Wednesday for the timing of the stronger wave and associated cold front. This period does trend higher for severe weather potential and overall rainfall footprint for heavier totals. Temperatures will remain warm with Sunday forecast the coolest given the widespread precip through the day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to periodically impact terminals in northeast OK the next few hours, and possibly through the afternoon. The impacts will be lightning, heavy rain, briefly lowered ceilings to 2-3 kft, and visibility reductions to 1-2 SM. These showers and storms will move into northwest AR this afternoon with similar impacts possible. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will continue for southern areas, with little to no rainfall. Winds will remain out of the south today, but may become gusty and erratic by storms. Overnight, ceilings will lift and break up, but may begin to return during the day Saturday. Winds will again become breezy but precipitation is expected to hold off until late morning or the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 60 82 64 76 / 30 20 50 90 FSM 59 85 65 80 / 20 20 10 70 MLC 61 81 65 77 / 10 20 40 90 BVO 56 81 61 77 / 30 30 60 90 FYV 58 82 63 77 / 30 20 10 80 BYV 59 81 64 76 / 30 20 0 60 MKO 59 81 63 76 / 20 20 30 90 MIO 59 81 63 74 / 40 20 30 90 F10 60 81 64 76 / 20 20 50 90 HHW 59 81 63 76 / 0 20 20 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.