textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Southerly winds and a warming trend returns Sunday.

- Thunderstorm chances return for the first part of the work week. Some severe weather potential may exist with details to be refined in later forecasts.

- Below normal temperatures return mid-week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Compact mid level wave continues to dive southeast across the area, which resulted in a few showers earlier this morning. Most recent model guidance offers little evidence of additional development through today, with mostly sunny skies and slightly below normal temperatues. Clear and cool conditions can be expected tonight.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Surface ridge shifts southeast resulting in a return to S-SW winds Sunday with notably warmer daytime temperatures. Southerly low level flow continues and increases Monday with attendant low level moisture increase. Warm/moist advection pattern may result in a few thunderstorms Monday night associated with strengthening low level jet, primarily focused on NW AR and far NE OK.

Cold front pushing through northeast OK early Tuesday forecast to be located somewhere from northwest AR back into southeast OK. Stronger deep layer winds overspreading unstable airmass will result in storm development along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, though coverage and intensity remain somewhat in question at this time. Some increase in coverage is possible as southwest upper trough moves into the plains with the front continuing to push southeast. Severe weather potential remains uncertain.

Much cooler conditions return mid week behind the front, followed by a quick warmup to end next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Mostly clear conditions and light/variable winds are expected over the CWA tonight. During the day Sunday, mostly clear conditions continue, while winds become southerly and increase with gusts of 15-25KT. VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 48 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 45 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 49 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 43 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 42 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 41 76 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 45 80 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 43 79 59 79 / 0 0 0 10 F10 48 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 48 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.