textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

- Breezy post frontal winds locally raise fire weather concerns this afternoon.

- Strong cold front passes late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Single digit wind chill values Sunday morning north of I-40. - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Quiet weather is likely tonight following todays cold front. With light northerly flow and a colder airmass, low temperatures tonight will range from the mid-upper 20s across the north to the mid-upper 30s in the south. High clouds will continue to stream over the region with no precip expected.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Return flow briefly works back into the region Saturday, with low clouds expanding into parts of SE OK/ W-Central AR as moisture is pulled northward. However, by mid-late afternoon, another more potent cold front will be on our doorstep. In the pre-frontal environment, temperatures may warm into the mid-upper 50s across the south, but cloud coverage could complicate this temperature forecast. Otherwise, high temps generally decrease with northern extent, perhaps remaining below 50 degrees near the OK-KS border. Dry conditions persist.

Strong north winds and much colder air will follow the front tomorrow, setting the stage for a very cold Sunday morning. With temperatures in the teens or 20s and continued breezy conditions, wind chill values will plummet into the single digits across NE OK and NW AR... perhaps near zero close to the KS/ MO borders. Will need to monitor this closely for potential Cold Weather Advisory issuance, but the current forecast keeps apparent temps just outside criteria. High temperatures on Sunday will not recover much... likely struggling to rise above freezing for parts of NE OK and NW AR. Another cold night is in store Sunday night, though the ridge axis will be moving east with increasing southerly flow and WAA developing overnight.

By Monday afternoon, south-southwest flow strengthens, allowing temperatures to recover quite nicely, back into the upper 40s/ lower 50s. This southwesterly flow regime persists through much of next week, with well above average temperatures becoming likely Tuesday through the end of the week. The extended forecast remains dry.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

High confidence that VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through this evening. Forecast confidence begins to lower by or shortly after midnight tonight as models are at odds on increasing low level stratus clouds into the area. Did include a mixture of MVFR/IFR ceilings developing or moving over the OK sites, as well as KXNA and KROG overnight tonight into early Saturday morning. However, coverage, timing, and duration of the ceilings are highly uncertain at this time. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the area Saturday afternoon/evening. Winds are expected to increase and turn northerly by early-mid afternoon. Additional MVFR/IFR ceilings could develop along or behind the frontal boundary as well. Precipitation is not expected.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 30 52 19 32 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 36 56 27 39 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 33 55 23 38 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 26 49 15 30 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 31 54 18 33 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 30 53 16 30 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 32 54 21 35 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 28 48 15 29 / 0 0 0 0 F10 30 56 20 34 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 38 54 30 42 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.