textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

- Slow moving upper low increases rain chances Wednesday with widespread showers and scattered storms Thursday into Friday. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Flooding may become a concern.

- Rain chances continue into the weekend but coverage is forecast to decrease. Temperatures near mid June normals.

SHORT TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Area of low pressure was currently centered over west Texas early this morning with showers and storms ongoing along the eastern periphery of the low. Ahead/east of this wave, southerly low level flow was aiding in low level moisture advection back northward with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5" approaching the Red River. This moisture plume is expected to move into southeast Oklahoma this morning and lift across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the afternoon hours as the low pressure system slowly tracks northeast into central Texas.

With the approaching wave, shower and thunderstorm chances also lift north of the Red River this morning and spread across much of the CWA through the afternoon. The greater potential for convection resides across southeast Oklahoma within the area of deeper moisture and greater instability. A slight chance of convection also develops across northwest Arkansas this afternoon on the leading edge of the northward advancing moisture plume as it gets lifted by the terrain. Weak flow aloft and marginal shear should limit overall severe potentials today. However, with the abundant moisture over the region, a locally heavy rain threat could develop with the convection. Scattered rain showers continue overnight tonight with the wave moving into north Texas by early Thursday morning. Weakening instability tonight will still allow for slight to low end chance, 20-30 percent, thunderstorm potentials for the CWA.

Cloud cover and precip chances will keep temperatures in check today with highs in the 80s and lows tonight in the 60s/near 70 deg for most locations.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The area of low pressure is progged to move over the CWA Thursday and Friday, with latest model solutions now indicating the wave exiting Friday night into Saturday. The current track of the wave puts the greater moisture and precip chances across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas with widespread rain showers spreading across the region. Marginal instability is forecast underneath the low as it moves over the CWA, with the greater instability to the south and east of the CWA. Thus, will continue with slight to low end chance, 20-40 percent, thunderstorm potentials through Friday night. Overall severe potentials should remain low through Friday night as well. The main weather impacts continue to be a heavy rain threat Thursday and Friday as precipitable water values in excess of 2" spread over southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. At this time, 1-3 inches of rainfall are forecast south/southeast of Interstate 44 into western Arkansas, with locally higher amounts in excess of 5 inches potentially through Friday night. The higher end rainfall amounts on top of recent rains, could quickly increase flood concerns.

Additional shower and storm chances remain for the weekend into early next week while a ridge of high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest and general troughing aloft remains across at least the eastern half of the CWA. The heavy rain threat should taper off with the exiting low pressure system Saturday, though a locally heavy rainfall potential remains into early next week. Any additional heavy rain combined with the forecast rainfall Thursday/Friday will continue flood concerns.

With the widespread precip chances late week, cooler temperatures are anticipated Thursday/Friday. A warming trend then returns for the weekend into early next week with high temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the CWA.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the day with the exception being across SE OK where increasing showers and storms are more likely. Further north across NE OK into NW AR the expectation is scattered mid to late afternoon storms with coverage decreasing after sunset. The coverage of showers and storms will increase again overnight with an expanding zone of MVFR prevailing ceilings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 88 69 79 69 / 10 30 50 40 FSM 89 69 80 69 / 20 40 80 60 MLC 84 67 77 69 / 40 70 80 50 BVO 88 67 80 67 / 10 30 40 30 FYV 86 67 78 67 / 20 40 80 60 BYV 86 67 79 66 / 20 40 60 60 MKO 86 68 78 69 / 20 50 70 50 MIO 87 67 80 68 / 10 30 50 40 F10 85 67 78 69 / 30 60 70 40 HHW 81 68 78 69 / 70 70 90 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.