textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- A very high impact winter storm will arrive tonight through Sunday, bringing climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the entire forecast area.

- Life threatening cold will also develop tonight, continuing through Monday morning. Lows Monday morning will be near or below zero. - Travel will become very difficult to nearly impossible at times.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts will persist for several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

An arctic front has moved through the forecast area. Very cold and dry air is pouring in from the north. Northerly winds will gust to 25-35 mph through the remainder of the day. Temperatures will remain below freezing for northeast OK and northwest AR through the afternoon. Areas south of I-40 will gradually cool to freezing by late afternoon. Meanwhile, precipitation will slowly spread north during the afternoon and evening hours. The initially dry lower levels will limit precipitation potential, especially in the north. Most model guidance shows precipitation reaching the ground by late afternoon or early evening for southeast OK, spreading to the remainder of the area during the late evening.

By late evening, surface temperatures will be in the teens north of I-40, and 25-30 F south of there. This is expected to result in mostly snow (some sleet may mix in) for northern areas. The forecast is more uncertain for central and southern areas, with a gradual transition from mostly snow to mostly sleet heading south. Some CAM guidance shows mostly snow in the McAlester to Fort Smith Corridor, and if this occurred it could snow upwards of 8-12 inches tonight. But there is other guidance showing mostly sleet, so in this case perhaps a couple of inches of sleet would fall instead. Some of these differences can be tied to model microphysics differences rather than actual meteorological uncertainty. As the exact corridor of transition will likely be variable, trended the forecast to more of a blend of sleet and snow for a good chunk of central and southeast OK as well as west-central AR. Any freezing rain should be limited to far southeast OK, and even there sleet will dominate. A few rumbles of thunder may occur in southeast OK where there are hints of minimal convective instability. Models have commonly underestimated this threat in similar patterns in the past. In terms of intensity, snowfall rates in the heavier bands may reach as high as 2 inches per hour, creating extremely treacherous travel conditions.

There is a clear trend in 12z model guidance for lighter precipitation tonight north of the I-44 corridor, with the heaviest axis of precipitation shifted south. The current forecast was updated to slightly tamp down on precip totals to reflect this, but it does not change the overall messaging of high impact winter weather that will occur. Future shifts may continue with further adjustments if these trends continue. For central and northern areas, total snow through Saturday morning will range from 3 to as much as 12 inches. Sleet totals will range from 1-3 inches, with central OK and west-central AR seeing a mixture of both types as noted earlier. Freezing rain accumulations will mostly be 0.15 inches or less and right near the Red River. Temperatures by Saturday morning will be in the single digits in the north, and teens in the south. Wind chills Saturday morning may reach -5 to -15 F north of I-40, and +9 to -5 F south of there.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Light snow and sleet will diminish Saturday morning. Most guidance is now in agreement on a break for most if not all of the forecast area Saturday late morning into mid afternoon. Southeast OK would have the best chance of light sleet persisting through this period. Temperatures will remain bitterly cold, generally pretty close to 10 F in the north, and 15-20 F in the south. It will remain breezy with very low wind chills.

By mid afternoon Saturday the next phase of this storm system will commence. Model trends this morning have shifted the 2nd precipitation band slightly southeast and slightly drier. They have also trended towards pulling sleet slightly further north at onset, perhaps as far north as a line from Okmulgee to Fayetteville. But even if this does occur, sleet will transition to snow for all areas by Sunday morning. With cooling upper levels the snow ratios are expected to become excellent, perhaps 15-1 or better near the end of the storm. This second phase will drop another 3 to 12 inches of snow in the north and up to 1-3 inches of sleet in the south (may end up being more snow than sleet). Overall storm totals will mostly be between 6 and 16 inches of snow (central and north) with 2-4 inches of sleet in the south, with blending expected in the middle. An isolated storm total of up to 20 inches is possible, but not expected. Snow will end by Sunday early afternoon.

Skies will clear Sunday night with winds going nearly calm. Considering these factors and a deep snowpack, low temperatures will fall to zero or below for the entire forecast area. Some typically cold areas may fall below -10 F. Any slight breezes will make it feel even colder. Temperatures will probably climb into the low to mid 20s Monday and perhaps above freezing for a few hours Tuesday or Wednesday afternoon before an additional push of cold air arrives. This will then keep high temperatures below freezing with lows in the teens into at least late week. Unfortunately this implies that very little of what falls will melt until at least late next week, with road conditions remaining extremely poor until at least then.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the afternoon. Thereafter flight conditions will deteriorate overnight area wide with expanding snow and sleet impacting all terminals. Areas of IFR to LIFR conditions are likely from late evening through early Saturday morning. An improving flight level trend is likely from west to east beginning mid to late Sat morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 9 11 7 16 / 100 90 100 80 FSM 17 20 13 20 / 100 100 100 80 MLC 16 18 9 18 / 100 100 100 80 BVO 5 10 5 14 / 100 90 100 60 FYV 9 16 7 17 / 100 100 100 80 BYV 8 11 8 15 / 100 100 100 80 MKO 13 16 8 16 / 100 100 100 80 MIO 8 10 6 14 / 100 90 100 80 F10 11 14 7 16 / 100 100 100 80 HHW 20 20 13 19 / 100 100 100 70

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.