textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- An extended period of hot weather will persist through the upcoming week. Heat headlines will be needed most days.

- Low afternoon rain/storm chances are in the forecast through the Labor Day weekend and again late next week. What rain that does fall is not likely to reverse recent drought trends.

- Localized fire weather concerns will exist most days due to the worsening drought.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday Night) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A broad high-amplitude ridge exists aloft over the central part of the country today, though there is no well-defined ridge center. With conditions more favorable aloft, CAMs continue to suggest that the combination of afternoon heat and humidity and elevated terrain will get some showers and storms going this afternoon. As we head into Sunday, a back door front will attempt to make a southwestward push toward our area. Ahead of the front, a plume of higher PWAT air will be draped across the forecast area and will support at least spotty afternoon showers and storms. Per CAM data today, PoPs were expanded across the entire area. Gusty downburst winds will be the main threat. Rainfall will be spotty and brief and will likely not impact the drought situation. Coverage of rain/storms is likely to stay limited this weekend, but still worth a mention given holiday weekend outdoor activities.

There is a low chance that some storm activity over far eastern KS into western MO could drop down into the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Chances are too low to mention at this time, but it is worth noting.

The Ft Smith airport hit 106 yesterday, and the current forecast has 105+ degree heat through Sunday in the lower Arkansas River Valley in west-central Arkansas. As a result, the advisory was upgraded to a warning there through Sunday. The combination of heat and humidity warrants maintaining heat advisories elsewhere through Sunday at least, and likely for days afterward.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The latest RRFS suggests there is potential for some spotty afternoon showers and storms mainly across the south on Monday afternoon, again in the deep layer moist plume in the vicinity of what is left from the back door front. There is more uncertainty though with upper heights expected to be rising by this time, but still worth mentioning given outdoor plans folks may have on the holiday.

Upper heights will continue to rise through the middle of the week, with Tuesday and Wednesday expected to have headline-worthy hot and dry weather.

A weak front is expected to drop down into Kansas on Wednesday, with rain/storm chances returning to the forecast Wednesday night into Thursday across NE OK and NW AR. The more optimistic GFS actually brings the likely outflow-reinforced boundary through the forecast area Thursday while the more pessimistic EC stalls the boundary near the KS/MO borders. The more aggressive solution could also bring rain/storm chances and relatively cooler temps into Friday as was reflected in the latest model blend (NBM) forecast.

Looking even farther out, solutions vary quite a bit on timing but a fall cold front is reflected at some point during the latter half of the month. We just have to get there.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions forecast over the next 24 hours, with light and variable winds through much of the forecast period. Isolated showers and storms may develop across parts of western AR into far E OK this afternoon, but coverage is expected to remain very low and will not include a mention at specific terminals at this time. Amendments will be sent if showers or storms approach any TAF site. Shower activity may linger beyond sunset.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 102 78 102 79 / 0 0 20 10 FSM 105 77 106 77 / 10 10 20 10 MLC 101 76 103 76 / 10 10 20 10 BVO 102 71 103 72 / 0 0 20 10 FYV 102 72 103 73 / 20 10 20 10 BYV 102 75 102 72 / 20 10 20 20 MKO 102 75 103 75 / 10 10 20 10 MIO 101 75 102 74 / 10 10 20 10 F10 101 75 102 75 / 10 10 20 10 HHW 100 75 100 75 / 20 10 20 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>071- 073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053- 055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 119-120-229.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-119-120-229.

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219- 220.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219- 220.