textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1247 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 - Gusty southerly winds to near advisory levels are expected this afternoon ahead of a cold front.

- A band of strong to severe thunderstorms will impact northeast Oklahoma and possibly into northwest Arkansas tonight in association with a strong cold front. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across far northeast Oklahoma as well.

- Gusty northerly winds to near advisory levels are expected overnight behind the front.

- Cooler and drier weather is anticipated Saturday into early next week. A frost advisory may be needed for Sunday morning for portions of the region.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The latest short-term guidance indicates potential for very gusty southerly winds this afternoon ahead of an approaching front. This is likely due to localized tightening or compression of the gradient between a pre-frontal low and nearly stationary high pressure to the southeast of the region. Spotty wind gusts to near 40 mph are possible. The gradient should relax as the front gets closer, so the gust potential should be short-lived. Given borderline, spotty and short-lived nature of the threat, a wind headline will not be issued.

Latest surface analysis places a cold front from central KS down into NW OK, and a dryline south from there roughly along the OK/TX Panhandle border. Some agitated cu is observed on satellite near the triple point. The HRRR has handled the frontal speed well so far, and there are some indications that the portion of the front dropping down into NW OK is slowing its southward progression some, as it indicates. This is important, as any slowing of the southward progression of the front would increase the severe threat into northeast Oklahoma from storms that develop either near the triple point or south along the dryline. The environment south of the front is unstable and strongly sheared (westerly 0-6km shear 50+ knots). Low level (0-1km) shear will improve by the time storms enter the forecast area from the west around 00Z and onward. Thus, storms that move into NE OK from the west just ahead of the front will have the potential to produce higher-end severe weather (big hail, locally damaging wind and tornadoes [either supercellular or evolving into QLCS variety]). The main limiting factor for northeast Oklahoma will be the expected acceleration of the front southward tonight. Once this occurs, storms will tend be undercut given more ana-frontal movement of the cells. Thus, the severe threat will be limited both temporally and spatially because of the front. Areas north of I-44 stand the greatest severe threat from this event, mainly in the 6 to 11 PM timeframe. Some lingering severe threat may spread into far northwest Arkansas around midnight depending on frontal location. All of the guidance indicates that the severe threat wanes after midnight as the front and band of storms associated with it progress southeast. In fact, thunder coverage is expected to drop off by 09Z early Saturday morning. Northerly winds may gust to near advisory levels at times across eastern OK behind the front, but no advisory is expected given marginal nature of threat.

Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across far northeast Oklahoma, especially close to the KS border. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Cooler and drier weather is on the way to start the weekend behind the front. Due to the model blend (NBM) tendency to hold onto PoPs too long, will trend toward a dry forecast sooner, i.e. early Saturday morning. Afternoon highs will drop below average for this time of year, back into the 60s.

Surface high pressure settles over the area Saturday night, under mostly clear skies. Favorable conditions for radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to dip into the 30s by Sunday morning over a good portion of the area. A frost advisory may be needed as we get closer.

A warming trend begins Sunday and will continue into early next week as southerly winds return. A subtle disturbance embedded in the west-southwest flow aloft ahead of another deep trough over the western CONUS will bring storm chances Tuesday into Wednesday. Organized severe weather is not expected, however.

The deep western CONUS trough will begin to move into the Plains by the end of next week. Expect storm and severe chances to increase during this timeframe.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds with the potential for brief periods of MVFR ceilings will continue this afternoon over the CWA ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front reaches northeast Oklahoma early evening and spreads southeast through the CWA overnight tonight into early Saturday morning. Along and near the front, convection is expected to develop with IFR/MVFR conditions and strong winds gusts as the boundary moves over the TAF sites. Will continue with Tempo groups for timing of greater potential impacts. Scattered showers/ VCTS could linger behind the front for a few hours before moving off to the southeast. Once precip tapers off, a lingering period of MVFR ceilings could remain before lifting back to VFR and then scattering out Saturday morning. Winds through the period start out gusty from the south and then transition to gusty west to northwesterly behind the frontal passage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 47 64 40 74 / 100 0 0 0 FSM 54 67 40 74 / 90 20 0 0 MLC 52 65 37 73 / 90 10 0 0 BVO 45 64 35 74 / 100 0 0 0 FYV 48 63 33 71 / 100 10 0 0 BYV 48 61 38 70 / 100 20 0 0 MKO 49 63 38 72 / 100 10 0 0 MIO 45 61 37 71 / 100 0 0 0 F10 49 64 37 73 / 90 10 0 0 HHW 53 65 41 71 / 70 30 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.