textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 653 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Periods of a heavy rain may occur through tonight and into Friday morning, especially across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The heavy rain potential tapers off during the daytime Friday.

- A cold frontal passage late tonight into Friday will cause temperatures to become more fall-like through the upcoming weekend.

- Pleasant weather is expected Sunday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Light to moderate rain, with pockets of heavy rain, continues to slowly shift eastward across the forecast area late this morning. So far, the heaviest rainfall in our area has fallen across east- central OK and into southeast OK where both KINX and KTLX show rainfall estimates between 1 and 3 inches, locally higher amounts, have fallen since late last night. Rainfall rates have dropped considerably since early this morning and have generally been less than an inch per hour over the last few hours. This should help the overall flooding concerns, as long as rates remain around an inch or less. CAMs do show a slight uptick in rainfall rates this afternoon as this wave of showers and occasional storms continues to shift into western AR. Daytime heating will try to cause some destabilization this afternoon, though there is skepticism on just how much destabilization occurs with limited heating occurring today. For this very same reason, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today, though cannot completely rule out some strong non-severe gusty winds underneath stronger storm cells/line segments this afternoon.

Behind the rain shield, conditions should stay mostly dry through this afternoon. Some additional isolated/spotty convection is expected to re-form near the OK/KS border, closer to the center of the mid-level trough, by mid to late afternoon. Locations north I-44 and west of US-75 will have the best opportunities for this potential convective activity late this afternoon and into this evening. CAMs show yet another flare up of convection developing after sunset this evening, mostly impacting the southeast half of the forecast area through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. Some nuisance flooding can be expected, but flash flooding appears unlikely at this time, though chances will remain non-zero through the overnight period tonight, especially for southeast OK. Additional rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are expected across southeast OK and western AR from this afternoon through daybreak Friday. The severe potential is expected to stay low.

Lastly, a modest, fall-like cold front will push into the forecast area beginning mid to late evening tonight and will steadily push south through the night. Latest model guidance has the frontal boundary reaching the I-40 corridor around or just after sunrise Friday morning. Breezy northerly winds will develop behind the front, with occasional gusts 30 to 35 mph initially, following the front. The cooler air may lag a couple of hours behind the front and likely will not filter into the area until around midnight or so. Otherwise, expect overnight lows tonight ranging from the mid to upper 60s, with lower 60s and upper 50s behind the front.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A cold front will be working its way south through the forecast area at the start of the long-term. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be on ongoing, with the heaviest rain axis from southeast OK through far northwest AR. This general area will remain the focus for showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon, near and ahead of the southward advancing cold front that is forecast to slide south of Red River by late Friday afternoon or early evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall will continue to be the biggest threat through the daytime Friday, especially across southeast OK and western AR. Another half an inch to an inch of rain will be possible from Friday morning through Friday evening for this area.

The mid-level trough shifts east of the area late Friday night, but its axis will linger and hover over the area Saturday and into Sunday morning. As overrunning occurs near the surface and the trough axis remaining present overhead, this will maintain low to medium rain chances (20-60%), mostly across southeast OK and west-central AR. Rainfall amounts are forecast to stay light Saturday into Sunday, generally up to quarter to half an inch possible. Rain chances completely end for all areas on or by Sunday morning and will remain dry through the rest of the long- term period.

Ensembles and global deterministic models are in very good agreement that broad continental surface high pressure builds into the Plains beginning on Sunday. As this occurs, mid-level ridging will build in over the Great Basin/Rockies region. This will ensure a dry and pleasant regime between Sunday and Wednesday.

Temperatures over the weekend will feature crisp fall mornings with lows in the lower to middle 50s (perhaps dipping into the upper 40s in spots) and afternoon high temperatures in the low to middle 70s (with some lower 80s creeping into southeast OK on Sunday). Temperatures will steadily trend warmer through the into next week, underneath mostly sunny skies during the daytime. Southerly winds are expected to return Monday night into Tuesday and temperatures will eventually trend back up into the low to middle 80s for highs by Wednesday.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Some increase in showers and thunderstorms is expected overnight near and east of current swath of rain from southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany a cold front tonight as it moves southeast from Kansas. This activity may diminish with time. There is some potential for few storms to form in eastern Oklahoma between these two area, but confidence is not high. MVFR to VFR ceilings will continue tonight, with areas IFR conditions behind the front tonight and tomorrow. Gusty north to northwest winds will arrive with the front late tonight and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 63 67 59 74 / 60 30 20 10 FSM 69 78 64 77 / 90 80 30 30 MLC 65 74 62 78 / 80 60 30 50 BVO 60 67 53 73 / 60 10 10 0 FYV 63 72 57 76 / 80 70 20 10 BYV 66 70 58 73 / 90 80 20 10 MKO 64 71 61 75 / 70 40 30 20 MIO 61 67 56 74 / 60 20 10 10 F10 62 71 59 75 / 60 30 40 30 HHW 67 77 66 77 / 90 80 60 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.