textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1223 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Gusty south winds and warm temperatures continue Monday.

- Thunderstorm chances return by Monday evening through Tuesday night. Some severe weather potential will exist Monday night and Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures briefly return mid-week.

- Warmer temperatures from Friday on, with low rain chances returning for the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Gusty south to southwest winds are prevalent late this morning across all of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with the downslope flow also leading to a quick warmup and temperatures already at normal highs for the day. Maximum gusts should remain in the 30 to 35 mph range, although an isolated gust to 40 mph could occur at more favored observation sites. Late in the afternoon and into the evening hours, CAMs continue to show potential for isolated thunderstorm development along the dryline to the west of the area that then shifts eastward during the evening and overnight hours. The more southward development should be in a declining phase as it approaches southeast Oklahoma, with any development across north central/northeast Oklahoma earlier in the evening having the greater potential for severe weather in the forecast area. Large hail would be the favored threat. Additional, more extensive thunderstorm development remains expected late this evening and into early Tuesday morning primarily across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in response to the low level jet. Hail would continue to be the favored severe weather threat with strong to severe storms overnight.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

All eyes are on the movement of a strong cold front on Tuesday into Tuesday night, with additional strong to severe thunderstorm development expected along the front during the afternoon and evening hours. The front will likely begin the daylight hours on Tuesday either just into parts of northeast Oklahoma or set to move in. The front remains expected to move southward fairly quickly, although most data keep the front lingering across far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas late afternoon into early evening. If this frontal timing holds, this places a few hour window for severe weather potential through about mid evening before the front shifts south and east of the area. Mainly shower potential will continue across northern areas Tuesday night until an upper level disturbance clears the area. The front will remain close enough to the area into Wednesday to support low chances for showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon before dry weather arrives areawide Wednesday night.

Beginning during the day Tuesday behind the front, much cooler temperatures both during the day and during the overnights will occur. Lowered highs for both Tuesday and Wednesday from the NBM initialization by leveraging traditional MOS guidance due to lingering cloud cover and on Tuesday, precipitation. With decreasing cloudiness and a favorable placement of the surface high, low temperatures in the 30s can be expected across northern areas, along with some potential for frost.

The surface high will shift to the south and east by Friday, with southerly winds and warmer temperatures making a quick return Friday and continuing into the weekend. Friday night, a low chance of showers and thunderstorms will accompany a disturbance moving through the Central Plains. Better areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms should move through the area in response to a disturbance and weaker front Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures closer to normal look to start the next work week behind the mid to late weekend front.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours with gusty south winds, which will decrease somewhat after sunset. Notable LLWS will set in by that time and continue through tonight. Main uncertainty remains with coverage of potential thunderstorms this evening and early tonight. PROB30 for earlier storms will be maintained for NE OK sites as dry line convection may move that far east. Higher confidence in developing storms in parts of NW AR after 06z, enough that TEMPO groups were included for XNA/ROG from 06-10z. MVFR ceilings likely to expand south behind a cold front into NE OK Tuesday morning, and across western AR late tonight in advance of the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 82 61 71 48 / 0 30 20 30 FSM 82 64 82 55 / 0 40 30 40 MLC 81 68 83 51 / 0 20 10 30 BVO 82 55 65 45 / 10 40 30 30 FYV 80 59 75 48 / 0 60 50 40 BYV 80 60 69 47 / 0 60 60 50 MKO 80 64 78 50 / 0 30 10 30 MIO 80 57 65 46 / 0 60 60 40 F10 81 64 78 48 / 0 30 10 20 HHW 80 68 85 58 / 0 20 10 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.