textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms again Sunday. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns.

- Moderate flooding on Polecat Creek near Sapulpa through Sunday morning. - A few storms could become marginally severe mainly Sunday afternoon. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines likely.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of western Arkansas with periods of rotation noted at times. Activity should push off to the north and east over the next couple of hours, with a lull in activity likely through the overnight hours. Some showers and isolated storms could redevelop across southeast Oklahoma through the overnight, but the widespread activity should hold off until Sunday morning. The slow moving upper low will continue to lift northeastward into Kansas during the day Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely become more numerous from Sunday morning into the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Enough instability will develop by afternoon, that a strong to severe storm will be possible. Mid level lapse rates will steepen somewhat tomorrow given the cooling temps aloft associated with the upper trough. Therefore, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns. Again, the tornado threat will be non zero as well, especially as low level shear increases toward the late afternoon and evening hours.

Additional heavy rainfall will also be likely with any showers and storms as precipitable water values remain near climatological max for this time of year. Efficient rainfall rates of one to two inches per hour will once again be common through Sunday afternoon. Convection should remain more scattered on Sunday, leading to lower widespread rain totals, but localized totals will still be high under any thunderstorms. Given the heavy rainfall across the area Saturday, will extend the Flood Watch to the southeast into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Showers and storms will lift northeast out of the forecast area Sunday night, with a few showers/storms lingering into Monday morning across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Upper ridging will then build into the region beginning Monday through the middle part of the week, leading to more typical heat and humidity across the region. Recent rainfall will also likely help intensify dewpoints each afternoon, pushing heat indices into the 105 range possibly as early as Monday for some locations and definitely on Tuesday for much of the area. Heat headlines will be likely during this time. A weak disturbance moving around the periphery of the ridge could lead to a cluster of storm developing across Kansas and making a run at far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Monday night into Tuesday morning. But storms will be weakening rapidly with coming under influence of the building ridge. Therefore, most look to remain dry for a couple of days after this system exits.

A strong upper trough will then track eastward across the Central and Northern Plains form mid to late week, pushing a frontal boundary near the region. Increasing shower and storm chances will again be the result, along with a slight reprieve on the intense heat into the weekend. Another front could move through the area over the weekend with additional storm chances and a bigger cooldown possible with that system.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Another complicated forecast with low cigs and periodic showers and storms. An upper low to the west will slide across the region on Sunday, bringing the unsettled weather chances. The 03Z HRRR was more aggressive with storms across the south, impacting KMLC and KFSM, as well as the far NW AR sites, impacting KFYV,KXNA,KROG during the day. For these sites will insert prevailing showers and VCTS along with TEMPO groups for storms. Will keep the prob30 mentions for NE OK sites. Low clouds will reduce conditions to MVFR or IFR toward morning, with expectation that VFR conditions will return Sunday afternoon and especially evening. Guidance suggests shower and storm chances should end from west to east as the low pressure moves away Sunday evening.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 89 77 92 / 50 20 10 0 FSM 74 91 76 94 / 40 10 10 0 MLC 76 90 78 92 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 71 88 75 93 / 60 20 10 0 FYV 72 86 75 90 / 50 20 10 0 BYV 70 87 73 90 / 60 40 10 0 MKO 73 89 75 90 / 40 10 10 0 MIO 71 88 75 92 / 80 40 10 0 F10 73 89 75 91 / 30 0 0 0 HHW 74 90 76 91 / 20 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for OKZ055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229.