textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Near record to record warmth is expected through Tuesday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns persist today and become more limited on Tuesday.

- Confidence is high that a widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall event will occur Wednesday and Thursday across northeast Oklahoma and possibly into far northwest Arkansas. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible.

- Much cooler and drier weather is expected by Friday into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Broad ridging aloft over the central CONUS will continue to bring near record to record warmth and quiet weather to the region through Tuesday. The fire weather danger is more elevated today due to the combination of gusty south to southwest winds and relatively dry air in place across NE OK and NW AR. The richer low level moisture is starting to lift north into the area with the dewpoint at KMLC now into the mid 60s. This richer low level moisture will eventually overspread the region by tonight, leading to potential record high mins tonight and limiting the fire spread potential on Tuesday.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Storms are expected to fire along focusing boundaries (front over KS, dryline over the southern High Plains) Tuesday afternoon. This activity will spread east Tuesday night while also forcing the front/outflow down into the forecast area by Wednesday. The CAMs are delaying the onset of storm activity into the forecast area more into Wednesday morning compared to some of the global models. Some adjustment to PoPs at event onset may be needed with future forecast updates. Shower and storm chances ramp up Wednesday with the boundary down into the area. With 70s dewpoints in place in the warm sector, there will be potential for a few strong to severe storms. However, with the main upper system still to the west an organized severe event is not expected.

Another round of storms is expected Wednesday night into Thursday as the system in the Southwest lifts out. This round of storms will be focused SW to NE ahead of the synoptic cold front. Trends in the data since yesterday have shifted the heavier QPF axis from these storms to the west a bit, more noticeable in the GFS/GEFS QPF. Nevertheless, the 2 main rounds of rain/storms are expected to drop a good 1 to 2 or 2.5 inches across a good swath of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, with the heavier amounts the farther west and north you go. Some locally heavy amounts in the 4 to 5 inch range or so are possible. A Flood Watch might be needed for a portion of northeast Oklahoma in future forecast updates.

The synoptic cold front will make a more aggressive push to the southeast by Thursday night. By this time, the southwest CONUS system will either have phased with or basically sheared out as it gets absorbed into the larger/stronger northern stream trough diving southeast over the Great Lakes. The forcing along the boundary collapses and thus not much precip is expected as it advances into SE OK and west-central AR. Much cooler temperatures will filter into the area behind the front for Friday and Saturday. In fact, below average temps are expected for a change. Some lows in the 30s could happen in the sheltered valleys Friday and Saturday night.

A quick warming trend is expected to start the following week, with low chances for rain returning by Monday.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

MVFR ceilings remain likely to expand northward, spreading into at least MLC and RVS and temporarily into FSM, after daybreak tomorrow. Lower ceilings at VFR heights will spread into the remaining terminals around the same time. Some improvement should be expected during the afternoon. LLWS potential continues to exist at the NE OK and NW AR sites. Gusty south-southwesterly winds will develop mid to late morning tomorrow and continue through the day at all sites except FSM. Thunderstorm potential tomorrow will hold off until after 14/00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 93 74 81 / 0 10 50 100 FSM 72 92 75 90 / 0 10 20 80 MLC 73 89 75 88 / 0 10 20 70 BVO 69 92 68 78 / 0 0 70 100 FYV 68 87 71 82 / 0 10 30 90 BYV 72 90 73 82 / 0 10 30 90 MKO 71 91 73 85 / 0 10 30 90 MIO 71 92 70 79 / 0 0 50 100 F10 72 90 73 84 / 0 10 30 90 HHW 73 90 74 91 / 0 10 10 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.