textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Colder temperatures and strong, gusty northwest winds will follow behind a cold front on Sunday.

- A low threat of severe thunderstorms will exist ahead of the front across western Arkansas Sunday.

- A light accumulation of snow is possible across extreme eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A weak cold front bisects the area early this afternoon with easterly winds north of the front and light southerly winds to the south. Temperatures are somewhat uniform across the area signifying the lack of airmass change behind the boundary. Winds will veer to the southeast late tonight as the surface ridge moves into the Tennessee Valley. Overnight lows will remain above normal, generally in the 40s with mostly clear skies.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Low level moisture return will be underway by late morning Saturday as south winds increase across the region. Winds will remain gusty through the afternoon as temperatures warm well into the 70s. Increasing humidity will offset higher winds speeds and warmer conditions, with the exception of areas west of US 75 where afternoon RH values will once again drop to near 30 percent maintaining a limited fire weather threat. Saturday will certainly be the better day of the weekend as a strong cold front moves through Sunday bringing impactful winds to the entire area and a low severe weather threat to western Arkansas. Sunday will start out very mild thanks to low clouds and breezy south winds overnight. The cold front will begin to move into northeast Oklahoma late in the morning then quickly progress east into western Arkansas by early afternoon. Some spotty showers are possible ahead of the boundary with an increase in intensity and coverage as it intersects better low level moisture across far eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Low to moderate instability and sufficient winds shear will be in place for a few strong updrafts with damaging winds the most likely threat. One limiting factor will be a capping inversion around 700 mb which will limit the overall thunderstorms threat until the boundary moves well southeast of the CWA.

Winds at 850 mb of 45-50 kt are forecast to spread south behind the front Sunday afternoon along with a very tight surface pressure gradient as the upper low moves into eastern Nebraska. Widespread advisory level (40 to 45 mph) wind gusts are expected Sunday with a brief window of 50 to 55 mph gusts possible across portions of northeast Oklahoma and the terrain in southeast Oklahoma mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will fall behind the front with readings into the 30 shortly after nightfall. Rapid to extreme fire spread rates are expected behind the strong cold front Sunday afternoon. Wetting rains are expected across far eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, however, those that miss out on the rain will likely see enhanced fire weather conditions return Sunday into Monday as very dry air filters in behind the front.

Precipitation lingering behind the front and associated with wrap- around moisture with the main system will result in a transition to snow before ending early Monday morning. Some light, non- impactful accumulations are expected, however, visibilities will be restricted with any heavier snow showers as winds remain gusty into the overnight period. A widespread hard freeze is likely Sunday night with wind chill values starting out in the single digits and teens. Monday will be another blustery day as winds are slow to diminish until the surface ridge builds into western Oklahoma late in the day.

An anomalously strong ridge builds into the western U.S. in the wake of the system and provides a quick warm up with readings by midweek back into the 70s and 80s. Continued warming with dry weather is expected to finish next week with at least a continued limited fire weather threat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast with passing high clouds and light winds. No impacts expected.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 48 79 60 67 / 0 0 0 30 FSM 48 80 58 71 / 0 0 0 80 MLC 51 78 60 72 / 0 0 0 30 BVO 41 79 53 65 / 0 0 0 30 FYV 47 77 55 66 / 0 0 0 80 BYV 46 75 58 67 / 0 0 0 90 MKO 48 77 60 72 / 0 0 0 40 MIO 46 75 56 67 / 0 0 0 60 F10 48 78 60 70 / 0 0 0 30 HHW 49 77 59 77 / 0 0 0 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.