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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Winter Weather Advisory for parts of northeast/east central Oklahoma Thursday. - Precipitation chances increase through Thursday morning with areas of a wintry mix Thursday morning especially near/north of the I-40 corridor.

- Warmer Friday and Saturday with another cold front Saturday night.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday Night) Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Mid/upper level low near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle Wednesday night will continue to track east northeast into the region Thursday morning. Ahead of this wave, scattered precip was spreading from west-southwest to east-northeast within the 50-70KT 500-mb flow. This precip was occurring north of the surface cold front that moved through Wednesday afternoon/evening. Aloft increasing elevated frontogenetic forcing in the 850-600-mb layer interacting with an west-east oriented axis of increasing omega over the same layer was aiding in broken bands of precip approaching/moving into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Surface temperatures as of 06z Thursday were just/slightly above freezing, while just above the surface, temperatures below 0C were common through the column. In response, light rain on the southern end transitioning to light snow/sleet to light snow were developing on the northern end of the precip.

Through the morning hours, this banded precip will continue to push into/through the CWA. Latest model soundings have indicated a slightly stronger and faster wave as it moves into the region. Also, more moisture and depth to the dendritic growth zone should help to create more of a wintry mix of rain/snow/sleet with limited potential for freezing drizzle/rain compared to 24-hrs ago. Latest short-term solutions continue to highlight the Interstate 40 corridor into far northwest Arkansas having the greater potential for banded wintry precip through the morning hours, as this looks to be were the higher omega field sets up. Within the banded precip, a higher precip rate with a snow/sleet mix to snow is forecast with a quick accumulation of up toward 1 inch across parts of northeast/east central Oklahoma Thursday morning. Stronger mid level lapse rates along with the potential for very weak elevated instability could allow for a isolated thunder potential within this banded precip. At this time, though will keep thunder potentials less than 10 percent. In any case, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for these locations early Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, which could impact the Thursday morning commute. Farther north toward the Oklahoma Kansas border, light snow/flurries are forecast, while farther south of I-40 light rain is forecast Thursday morning.

There are indications that this banded precip could make it into far northwest Arkansas before weakening mid to late morning. Due to uncertainties with a more precise location of the banded precip and lower confidence on eastward extent, have held off on advisory conditions in far northwest Arkansas for now. This will need to be monitored closely as latest data come in.

Late morning through the afternoon hours, the wintry mix looks to spread more east/southeast and could reach locations along and north of a McAlester to Poteau line including the Fort Smith/Arkansas River valley. Little to no wintry impacts are anticipated south of the I-40 corridor. During the afternoon hours, precip should begin to exit the CWA while the mid/upper low moves through the CWA. Some light flurries could redevelop under the low as it moves across through the afternoon hours for northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Precip chances finally taper off and exit late afternoon/early evening.

Surface temperatures through the day Thursday are not anticipated to warm much with afternoon temperatures near/just above freezing north of I-40, and mid/upper 30s common south of I-40. Cloud cover looks to hold over the region into Thursday night before trying to scatter out early Friday morning. Low temperatures in the 20s to low 30s from north to south are forecast.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The wintry conditions are progged to be short-lived as southerly low level flow quickly returns Friday with temperatures climbing back into the 40s/near 50 deg across the CWA. The warming trend continues into Saturday before another shortwave and cold front move through. The next cold front is forecast for Saturday night with temperatures falling into the 40s for much of the CWA Sunday. There remains some indications within the mid range model solutions of precipitation chances Saturday/Saturday night behind the frontal boundary. For now will continue with previous forecasts and keep PoPs just north/northeast of the CWA. However, this also bares watching as a window of wintry precip could develop Saturday night if moisture return/precip potential shifts southward.

Looking into next week, southerly winds again quickly return and become breezy Tuesday, aiding in warmer temperatures spreading back over the CWA. At the tail end of the forecast, extended model solutions try to drop another wave through the region around the middle part of next week. Again with much uncertainties that far out, will continue with a dry forecast for the first half of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Band of a rain snow mix extends through east central OK and far NW AR with an expected trend of slowly shifting southward before a gradual decay later this morning into early afternoon. A wide range of ceilings currently resides across the local region. The forecast will side toward MVFR to IFR conditions this morning with an improvement into VFR levels during the afternoon. Clouds may be slow to clear across western AR and the majority of guidance develops a low stratus deck tonight across the western AR terminals. Confidence is sufficiently high to include a similar trend in the forecast but there also remains the potential for persistent VFR conditions into the overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 35 27 50 32 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 38 32 49 33 / 30 0 0 0 MLC 36 27 52 34 / 30 0 0 0 BVO 33 23 49 27 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 35 27 47 32 / 40 0 0 0 BYV 34 27 47 32 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 34 28 49 33 / 50 0 0 0 MIO 33 25 47 29 / 10 0 0 0 F10 33 25 49 32 / 60 0 0 0 HHW 40 31 49 35 / 20 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ060- 064>067-070-071.

AR...None.