textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Potential for isolated sprinkles will continue for the next couple of days north of I-40 as an upper wave moves across.

- A gradual warming trend is expected to continue.

- A weather system may bring a low chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend or early next week, but otherwise the forecast remains dry. Confidence remains low on when or if this will impact the area.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Low impact weather continues across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures at midday are already nearing normal seasonal highs in most areas, although thicker cloud cover and sprinkles are keeping temperatures lower in highly localized spots in northeast Oklahoma at present. Speaking of sprinkles, that potential will continue through tonight, particularly across areas north of I-40, in association with an upper level disturbance moving through the Central Plains. With the low levels remaining very dry, sprinkles is all that should result, although a very low chance of measurable rain may develop late tonight along the Kansas border if enough persistent shower activity leads to more low level saturation than currently expected. The NAM, particularly, is hinting at this somewhat.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Sprinkles or localized light rain may continue into Wednesday, spreading eastward through the day, with a likelihood of it shifting east of the area by the evening hours. Upper level ridging will build fully into the region for the latter part of the week and into the weekend, with above normal temperatures and dry conditions likely to prevail. Fire weather conditions may uptick a tad on Friday for areas northwest of I-44 as southerly winds increase in the afternoon. This area has seen rain recently, though, which may offset some of this somewhat. There continues to be a storm system that approaches the area late in the weekend into early next week, which brings low rain chances to the area. However, this system continues to have poor consistency in when or how much impact it will have on our area. If it moves through, expect a decrease in temperatures, probably early to middle part of next week, with the aforementioned low rain chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all sites. SCT to BKN mid and high level clouds will continue into Wednesday with scattered virga or sprinkles possible, mainly across NE OK and NW AR. Winds remain light out of the south or southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 50 77 51 / 10 10 10 0 FSM 78 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 77 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 73 46 76 48 / 10 10 10 0 FYV 75 47 77 48 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 73 49 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 75 50 77 51 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 72 49 73 49 / 10 0 10 0 F10 75 49 78 50 / 10 0 10 0 HHW 77 50 80 51 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.