textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Above average temperatures continue Friday, with low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms, mainly north of I-44.

- Increasing and more widespread chances for rain and a few storms are expected this weekend as an upper disturbance moves across the area.

- Additional widespread and heavier precipitation, as well as a cool down, look probable by mid to late week next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday Night) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Mid-level ridging is expected to remain anchored across the western Gulf coast and will maintain unseasonably warm conditions through the short-term period. Light south to southeast winds will become better established by daybreak Friday, increasing low- level moisture advection slightly through the daytime. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to run about 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal average, topping out in the mid to upper 80s (north) and low to mid 90s (south) underneath partly cloudy skies.

Latest GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough beginning to lift out of the Desert Southwest. Model guidance is in good agreement that the trough will continue lifting and reach the High Plains by Friday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, a plume of mid- and high-level moisture will overspread the area. Although most global models keep the forecast area dry, consensus in hi-res CAMs produce spotty, low-impact showers through the daytime, mainly confined north of I-44. A brief lull in precipitation is forecast to occur late Friday afternoon through much of Friday evening before increasing again as isentropic ascent and forcing ahead of the trough axis interact with the richer moisture overnight Friday. The low precipitation chances (20-30%) will primarily remain focused north of I-44 and near the OK/KS border. Overall, impacts will remain low through the short- term period.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The shortwave trough will finally topple over the upper ridge and flatten as it slides east across the Central/Southern Plains over the weekend. Latest model guidance suggests the best rain chances (20-40%) during the day Saturday will remain near and north of I-44 until the trough axis is able to crest the ridge axis, which likely will occur overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. This is when the highest and most widespread precipitation chances (30-70%) will occur. With that said, still not expecting a wash- out of rain this weekend, as shower/convective activity should stay hit or miss with the exception of overnight Saturday. Though precip chances get relatively high this weekend for many locations, rainfall amounts will remain generally low and should remain below half an inch.

Confidence continues to increase on a widespread rain event Tuesday and Wednesday, and perhaps lingering into Thursday. Consensus in ensemble and deterministic global model data continue to show a robust upper-level trough and associated surface low pressure/cold front will impact much of the Central CONUS mid to late week. Latest model runs are a little more murky and indecisive with the evolution of the trough/upper low. Its evolution may be dependent on what is currently Hurricane Polo and what it does in the eastern Pacific as it moves inland sometime between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning. The slower/delayed inland movement, depicted in the 12z run of the ECMWF (in comparison to the GFS), slows the progression of the trough as it is ingested into the robust trough/upper low. If this verified, this would keep the moderate to heavy rain chances lingering longer as the trough/upper low slows down, as well as delay the passage of the cold front through the forecast area. Needless to say, there is still a lot of uncertainty with regards to the synoptic pattern beyond Tuesday. However, confidence remains high that widespread moderate to heavy rain will occur mid to late week, but detail will continue to be refined over the next several days.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 87 69 89 69 / 10 10 20 60 FSM 91 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 94 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 30 BVO 83 64 85 64 / 30 20 40 60 FYV 89 63 88 64 / 0 10 10 20 BYV 85 64 86 66 / 0 0 10 20 MKO 89 66 91 67 / 0 0 10 40 MIO 82 68 84 67 / 10 10 20 60 F10 89 66 92 67 / 10 10 10 50 HHW 89 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.