textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Hot, humid and dry weather persists this week. Heat advisory headlines are in effect Monday for portions of the area, and may be needed in the days following.

- Flooding and high water continue on area mainstem rivers in northeast Oklahoma

- Low chances for diurnally driven storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR during the latter part of the week. Low storm chances over much of the area this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Similar to Saturday night, overnight temperatures will remain quite warm with persistent southerly winds, likely yielding lows only in the upper 70s or lower 80s. Yet another hot and humid day is likely across the region Monday. Dewpoints were a tad lower Sunday which kept max heat indices in the 102-106 range within the advisory area. Have adjusted temperatures and dewpoints based on Sunday observations and in line with latest guidance, which suggests another round of lower-end advisory heat indices for parts of the area. A Heat Advisory is in effect between 1 and 8 PM for portions of NE OK as well as the AR River Valley. No change to the configuration was made at this time. Also similar to Sunday, breezy south-southwest winds develop during the afternoon, with gusts between 25 and 30 mph. Some mid and high clouds are likely again, though they should become increasingly confined to north and west portions of the FA by late in the day.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Under the influence of mid-upper level ridging, hot and humid conditions are likely to persist through the remainder of the forecast period...though slight changes in daily temperature and dewpoint values are expected. Latest guidance continues to indicate heat indices may fall short of advisory criteria on Tuesday and Wednesday as dewpoints decrease a few degrees. By Thursday, however, high pressure weakens/slides eastward slightly permitting moist southeast flow into the region. This is expected to bring heat indices back to near or above advisory criteria through the weekend. Additionally, isolated to scattered diurnal showers/thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Friday, primarily over the terrain of SE OK and NW AR. The synoptic pattern reconfigures this weekend as upper ridging becomes focused across the Rockies with a weakness over the C to S plains. This may permit more widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday or Sunday. However, any convection is expected to take the form of pulse showers/storms, implying a messy and variable rainfall footprint. Overall, typical summer weather will continue.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail, however at least transient MVFR ceilings are possible for a few hours by around 12z from SE OK through NW AR. LLWS at all locations overnight will transition to increasing south wind gusts through the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 80 95 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 77 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 79 94 77 93 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 78 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 74 92 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 75 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 78 93 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 77 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 F10 77 94 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 76 93 75 92 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-060>062-067-070-074-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.