textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1037 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Much colder today with wind chills predominantly in the teens and 20s through the day. Low chance of flurries this morning and afternoon.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive Wednesday, particularly across SE OK and W AR. Rain totals remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and accumulating ice and snow.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A cold front will continue to progress through the forecast area overnight, setting the stage for another cold day Monday. While not overly strong, breezy north winds will hold wind chills in the teens this morning, locally in the single digits across far NE OK and NW AR. Continued CAA and cloud cover will likely result in high temperatures near or below freezing across much of NE OK and NW AR. The persistent northern breeze will keep apparent temperatures even lower for most of the day... likely in the upper teens and 20s. Cloud cover will not be as dense across SE OK, and temperatures will likely be warmer here, up to the lower 40s near the Red River.

A subtle wave will pass overhead during the morning and afternoon hours, potentially resulting in some flurries or light snow showers across NE OK and NW AR. Any precip will need to overcome low level dry air, which casts doubt on how much can actually reach the ground. Even if so, amounts greater than a trace are unlikely, and winter impacts are not expected.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Skies will gradually clear Monday evening and overnight as the aforementioned system exits the region. Post-frontal high pressure will meander south through the night, becoming increasingly centered south and east of the CWA by Tuesday morning. A period of effective radiational cooling is expected Monday night before southwest winds redevelop late overnight as the high pressure system exits. This results in low temperatures predominantly in the teens. Southwest winds increase to 10-20 mph during the day Tuesday as pressure gradients tighten ahead of the next storm system.

The southerly flow will eventually transport moisture northward into the FA Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. As this occurs, an upper level wave rotating through the upper midwest will send another cold front southward. Increasing ascent will result in the development of light rain ahead of the front Wednesday morning and afternoon, particularly across SE OK and W-Central AR. Precip chances decrease from north to south by Wednesday night. While a few spots could see up to a quarter inch, overall QPF is still on the lower side with this system, and most locations will probably see less than a tenth of an inch. Another front follows with high pressure moving into the area on Thursday.

There is increasing consensus in a pattern change as we move into the end of the week. The persistent western ridge is forecast to break down Thursday and Friday, permitting flow over the southern plains to become increasingly zonal, then southwesterly. Meanwhile, a lobe of very cold arctic air is forecast to eject southward through the country and into the southern plains. As these features come together, ensemble guidance depicts increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and accumulating ice and snow. Nothing is set in stone at this range, and there will be plenty of changes over the coming days, but potentially significant impacts are within the realm of possibility. Please check for updates to the forecast this week as more information becomes available and models converge on a particular solution.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Considerable mid level cloudiness will spread south over the area before clearing from the north late Monday and Monday evening. North winds will gust to near 20 knots at times late tonight and Monday following the passage of a cold front, with the winds diminishing late Monday afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 24 31 19 51 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 24 35 17 53 / 0 10 0 0 MLC 26 37 16 53 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 19 31 13 51 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 19 29 11 49 / 0 10 0 0 BYV 19 28 14 48 / 0 10 0 0 MKO 24 32 17 51 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 19 29 17 48 / 0 10 0 0 F10 24 33 17 51 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 28 44 21 51 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.