textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Cooler with a period of gusty north to northwest winds behind the cold front, as well as an end to the severe weather threat.

- Dry for Sunday, but additional storm chances return early to middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday Night) Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

As of 11 PM Friday, a complex mode of strong and severe thunderstorms remains ongoing and continues to push across northeast OK late this evening. These storms earlier produced multiple tornadoes, including in the Tulsa metro. They have since moved into far eastern OK, with some additional development currently occurring in southeast OK, just south of I-40. VAD wind profile from KINX indicates a stout 45-55 kt low-level jet in place. The low- level jet, in combination with dewpoints in the 60s and 0-3km SRH values around 400 m2/s2, will maintain the potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a couple of tornadoes beyond midnight tonight for far eastern OK, southeast OK, and northwest AR. A Tornado Watch now includes all of northwest AR and west- central AR, in addition to far eastern OK and southeast OK, until 4 AM Saturday morning.

Focus will eventually shift from the ongoing aforementioned warm sector storms to strong to severe thunderstorms riding along an approaching cold front that is currently just north of the OK/KS border. Hi-res models have been persistent in showing a squall line of strong and severe storms quickly developing as the front moves into northeast OK. In fact, radar is already beginning to show this development. Damaging wind gusts around 60-70 mph will be the primary hazards with storms along the front, but the potential for large hail and QLCS tornadoes will also exist along and just ahead of the frontal boundary. The severe threat is expected to dwindle fairly quickly behind the front as a much more stable airmass follows. With that said, want to re-emphasize that the severe threat will remain intact until the front passes. Timing of the front is a little fluid, but current thinking is that the position of the front will be through the Tulsa metro around or by 3 AM and from Carroll County, AR to Pushmataha County, OK by daybreak Saturday morning. The front should push through the entire CWA by 8 or 9 am, with light to moderate rain and elevated thunderstorms from overrunning lingering across southeast OK and western AR through much of the daytime before chances completely shut off. Cloud cover will begin to clear from northwest-to-southeast Saturday evening.

As far as temperatures go, temperatures will fall into the 40s and 50s north of the cold front by daybreak Saturday, with low-mid 60s south and east of the front. Temperatures should warm up some in the afternoon, but with brisk northerly winds (especially in the morning) and mostly cloudy skies through much of the daytime, temperatures will likely struggle to get out of the 40s and 50s for much of the area behind the front. Did lower temperatures down about 5 degrees from what NBM guidance was producing, and even these temperatures may be slightly too warm in spots. Winds are forecast to slowly decrease through the afternoon and into the evening as surface high pressure moves into the area. The clearing skies and light winds will cause temperatures to fall close to seasonal average Saturday night into Sunday morning, with lows generally in the mid-upper 30s north of I-40 to low-mid 40s south of I-40.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Southerly winds will return by Sunday afternoon as surface high pressure scoots east of the area. The southerly winds will promote a warming trend through Tuesday. Aloft, a mid-level trough will split off from the main jet stream and close off over Baja CA by Saturday evening/Sunday morning and will result in quasi-zonal flow over the area. A weak perturbation, originating from southwest TX, in the flow will drift over the forecast area and will cause isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to form, mainly impacted portions of southeast OK and west-central AR late Sunday night into Monday morning. There could be enough moisture and instability recovery for a few strong to severe elevated thunderstorms, especially for far southeast OK Monday morning, where the most moisture and instability will be. By the afternoon, instability will rapidly increase above 2000 J/kg in this particular area. This could be problematic if convection is able to hang around or redevelop along existing boundaries in the afternoon. Will need to keep monitoring trends.

The closed-off Baja CA low will move onshore over northwest Mexico Monday night into Tuesday morning. Medium-range models show showers and thunderstorms developing well ahead of the approaching upper-level low on Tuesday morning and into the afternoon. Instability, moisture, and lifting will all be in place for additional strong to severe thunderstorm development by Tuesday afternoon as the upper-level low moves over the High Plains. Heavy and excessive rainfall is also expected to occur with this same storm system Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. This setup will also continue to be monitored over the next few days.

Another cold front will push through the area Wednesday morning/afternoon and the upper-level trough axis will follow push across the area by Wednesday evening. Much drier air will filter in behind the trough axis and rain chances will fall off by or before mid-evening Wednesday. Dry weather will prevail through the remaining of the forecast period. Temperatures will cool off nicely behind the front on Wednesday and temperatures will fall closer to seasonal average, but still above average, Wednesday and Thursday, with a warm up by next Friday.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Thunderstorm impacts will persist at all except the NE OK terminals for the first couple of hours of the valid TAF period, given observations of plenty of lightning in the stratiform area trailing the main convective line. Behind the precipitation, a multi-hour of period of MVFR ceilings should impact all of the terminals, with an upward trend into the evening and overnight. A low chance of another round of MVFR ceilings overnight exists but enough uncertainty exists to preclude inclusion in the TAFs for now.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 56 38 72 52 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 64 43 74 51 / 70 20 0 10 MLC 58 41 73 54 / 40 20 0 10 BVO 56 33 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 60 36 73 50 / 60 10 0 0 BYV 62 38 70 51 / 60 10 0 0 MKO 56 38 71 50 / 30 10 0 0 MIO 54 35 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 F10 56 38 71 53 / 30 10 0 0 HHW 67 46 71 54 / 90 40 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.