textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1114 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Hot and humid weather persists through the week. Heat advisory headlines are in effect today and Thursday for portions of the area, and will likely be needed in the days following.

- Low chances for afternoon storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR Thursday and Friday spreading into the remainder of the forecast area over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1114 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Hot and humid conditions remain firmly entrenched across the region today. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are likely, with heat indices mostly 98 to 105 F. The highest heat indices will be in the Arkansas River Valley near and east of Fort Smith, where a Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon. Breezy southerly winds will continue with essentially no chance of rain. Overnight tonight lows will again remain quite mild, in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1114 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The upper level high that has been driving the recent heat will adjust eastward slightly beginning Thursday. This will help to increase PWAT to around 1.5-1.75" as moisture return improves. At the surface, the sensible weather will mostly remain similar to the last few days with highs in the 90s and heat indices in the 98-105 F range. However, the increased moisture may be just enough to help a few diurnal high terrain showers and storms on Thursday. These would be capable of gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain. Friday will be similar, with perhaps an additional uptick in storm activity, though it will still largely be confined to the higher terrain areas.

Over the weekend, additional weakness in the upper level heights will develop. A diffuse upper level low will settle near the area along with a few transient shortwaves. The net effect will be increased shower and storm activity across the entire forecast area, though in an absolute sense the overall probabilities will remain low at 10-30% chance. Temperatures will remain hot, possibly even nudging up a few degrees for the 4th (Saturday).

The models show a mostly stagnant pattern into next week with general ridging across the area, but with some weakness remaining in upper level heights over the forecast area as a subtle circulation sits nearby. The overall model consensus then is for diurnal showers and storms, mostly focusing across the higher terrain, but occasionally spreading into the remainder of the area. Storms would overall have low coverage and intensity. Heat and humidity will be favored to persist with highs in the 90s and heat indices near or above 100 F most afternoons.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Diurnal cloudiness will continue to expand this afternoon, decreasing this evening and overnight before developing again mid to late morning tomorrow. Gusty southerly winds will prevail at all sites this afternoon except FSM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 94 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 20 10 MLC 94 77 94 77 / 0 0 10 10 BVO 93 76 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 91 74 92 75 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 92 73 92 73 / 0 0 20 10 MKO 93 75 93 76 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 92 74 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 F10 93 75 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 93 75 92 75 / 0 0 30 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ129-219-220.