textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1138 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Hot, humid and dry weather persists this week. Heat advisory headlines are in effect today and Tuesday for portions of the area, and may be needed in the days following.

- Flooding continues on main-stem rivers in northeast Oklahoma.

- Low chances for afternoon storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR during the latter part of the week. Low storm chances continue with a weak front by Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A look at GOES19 PWATs shows a drying trend over the region during the past 24 hours, especially to our south and west upstream from the low level flow. The model blend (NBM) and a blend of short- term models have been handling dewpoints fairly well. Evapotranspiration is likely still having some impact on the dewpoints across NE OK, but this impact should be lessening in the coming days. Will leave the current advisory for this afternoon intact.

The lows last night were warm, even in the typical sheltered sites. Winds are not expected to be quite as strong overnight into Tuesday morning, but still enough to hold temps up. At this point, the forecast will continue to lean on the warm NBM numbers.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The trends in the deep-layer moisture and lessening impact from soil moisture mentioned above support the gradual draw down of dewpoints in the coming days that the models are advertising. With forecast highs not changing much over the next couple of days, the potential for advisory level heat over much of the forecast area is decreasing. After crunching the numbers for Tuesday, advisory level heat indices were forecast only in Franklin county AR in the lower Ark River Valley. Since an advisory is in effect from a neighboring office to our east, an advisory will be issued there for Tuesday afternoon. Both the MOS and NBM show high temps trending upward during the latter part of the week. Heat headlines are likely to return if this pans out as advertised.

Our area will remain under the influence of a strong and broad ridge of high pressure aloft over the next few days. The ridge will weaken by the end of the week, and deep layer moisture may increase enough from the southeast to yield low afternoon storm chances in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR Thursday and Friday. A weak front may make its way into the region by Sunday, yielding some rain/storm chances that will linger into Monday.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with a few clouds near 2.5-4 kft and scattered high clouds. Winds will remain breezy out of the south through the forecast period with gusts of 20-30 kts. Wind shear will develop again tonight north of I-40. Wind shear will be 35-45 kts and oriented out of the south. No rain will occur.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 93 79 94 78 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 95 77 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 94 79 94 78 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 93 78 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 91 76 92 75 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 91 75 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 93 77 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 91 77 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 F10 93 77 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 94 77 93 75 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-060>062- 067-070-074-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ220.