textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Hot and humid weather will settle in through Thursday with potential heat impacts each day.

- Thunderstorm chances and a severe weather threat return late Thursday into Friday.

- Multiple rounds of potentially heavy rainfall and a low severe weather risk will continue through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

An outflow boundary associated with convection that moved just north/northeast of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning remained common across the CWA this afternoon. Daytime heating interacting with this boundary could create an isolated storm potential, though will keep PoPs below mentionable criteria due to uncertainty/coverage. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible within any storm development. Any development should weaken with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

Main impact this afternoon will be the warm and humid conditions over the CWA. Heat index values of mid 90s to around 105 deg remain forecast, with the higher end of these values over northeast Oklahoma and also the Arkansas River valley of west central Arkansas. Thus, will continue the Heat Advisory for this afternoon over these locations.

This evening into tonight, latest short-term solutions indicate scattered convection initiating over the High Plains and spreading east/northeast. At this time the majority of this activity should remain west-north of the CWA, though there is potential for the convection to push out an outflow boundary that could reach into northeast Oklahoma tonight. In response, have increased PoPs to just below mentionable criteria for northeast Oklahoma. The greater potential looks to remain in Kansas, where the higher instability and the low level jet should set up. If any development in the CWA does occur, a gusty wind and locally heavy rain threat would exist.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The western half of the mid/upper level ridge that is over the region today is expected to get a push east/southeast Wednesday from a wave moving out into the central Plains. This slight adjustment of the ridge could keep conditions from reaching Heat Advisory criteria Wednesday afternoon. However, heat index values of mid 90s to around 103 deg are forecast.

With the wave moving into the Plains and the parent mid/upper level trof axis into the Plains Thursday, a weak frontal boundary is progged to approach/move into the CWA Thursday afternoon/evening. Ahead of this boundary, pooling low level moisture combined with the low level thermal ridge setting up just west/northwest of the CWA, warm and humid conditions are again forecast Thursday. Heat index values of upper 90s to near 110 deg are forecast, and another Heat Advisory will likely be needed Thursday afternoon for parts of the CWA.

One limiting factor to the heat will be the timing of the return of shower and storm chances as the front moves into the CWA. At this time will continue with chance PoPs mid/late afternoon, while showers/storms become more likely Thursday evening/overnight. Ample amounts of moisture streaming into the region will aid in a heavy rain threat which could lead to localized flooding concerns Thursday night into Friday. Also, at least a limited severe potential exists into Thursday night with the greater potential over the northern half of the CWA.

Shower and storm chances Friday are greater over the southern half of the CWA Friday as the boundary looks to get held up over the CWA before returning northward and exiting Friday evening. Again, a localized heavy rain threat exists with this activity. A lull in precip chances could develop Friday night before increasing again for the weekend.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances quickly increase over the weekend with another wave and associated cold front moving into the region. With the boundary Friday lifting back northward, low level southerly flow does not look to be interrupted, thus allowing for excessive amounts of moisture to spread over the region ahead of the cold front. Latest model solutions indicate the potential for precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches pooling over the region. This will increase the threat for heavy rainfall, which could increase flood concerns over the CWA. As of this forecast, multiple inches of rainfall are forecast over the weekend before tapering off early next week. Those with outdoor plans this weekend, especially those along any streams/rivers should continue to monitor latest forecasts through the week. In addition to the heavy rain threat, at least a limited severe potential also exists each day this weekend.

Once the shower and storm chances return Friday through the weekend, cooler conditions are forecast with highs looking to be in the 80s and lows in the 60s/70s each day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

SCT-BKN low cloud potential exists this afternoon at all sites, with BVO and MLC most likely to see an MVFR ceiling through mid afternoon given surrounding observations. Mainly VFR conditions should be expected overnight, with an increase in the chance of MVFR ceilings once again toward and after daybreak tomorrow. Most spots will have gusty south to south-southwesterly winds this afternoon, dropping off overnight and developing again tomorrow morning. LLWS remains most likely at BVO/TUL/RVS overnight as the low level jet increases. Will not include any mention of showers or thunderstorms at the NE OK sites for now but CAMs do show at least scattered activity in north central OK with some as far east as BVO/TUL/RVS. In addition, a low chance of development this afternoon near the far NW AR sites exists due to the proximity of the outflow boundary from the morning MCS in Kansas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 92 78 92 79 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 93 76 93 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 92 78 91 79 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 92 77 92 79 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 89 74 89 76 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 89 73 89 75 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 91 75 90 78 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 91 75 91 77 / 20 0 0 0 F10 90 76 90 78 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 91 76 91 78 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>063-067-154- 254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.