textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- High heat stress conditions continue through Sunday. - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying fuels and periods of gusty winds.

- A weak front will bring widely scattered storm chances and slightly cooler temperatures late this afternoon into Monday. Localized strong downburst winds possible. Any cooling of temperatures will be minor.

- Uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals of slightly cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Warm overnight temperatures will lead into another hot and humid day across the region. Widespread triple digit temps are once again expected across the area with heat headlines in place through the afternoon. An upper trough moving through the northern state will push a weak frontal boundary into northeast Oklahoma late in the afternoon. Moisture pooling along the boundary could lead to some more extreme heat index values in isolated locations through the mid to late afternoon as the heat stress impacts build. In addition, widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and just behind the boundary as it slowly sags southward through the evening. Not everyone will see a storm, but at least a few storms should bring some much needed rainfall to parts of the area. High T/Td spreads, leading to deep inverted V profiles will favor some strong downburst wind potential with the stronger updrafts. The highest rain chances will stay north of I-40 through the late afternoon and evening Sunday.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Any lingering storms should begin to wane after sunset Sunday. Storms developing across the High Plains Sunday afternoon could move east and affect parts of northeast Oklahoma late Sunday night into Monday morning while weakening. A good gradient in temperatures is expected on Monday, with relatively cooler weather with some clouds north of the boundary, possibly stopping the 100 degree streak for Tulsa and surrounding areas, while temperatures remain near and in excess of 100 degrees to the south. Widely scattered storm development is again forecast along the boundary Monday afternoon, with higher chances shifting near and south of I-40 through Monday evening. Again, strong downburst winds will be possible with the strongest storms. Meaningful rainfall will remain spotty at best with many locations not seeing much in the way of rainfall totals through Monday night.

The boundary loses definition by Tuesday as the upper ridge intensifies over the Southern Plains and a return to very hot temperatures and heat headlines areawide. Guidance continues to indicate the ridge shifting westward by mid week with another front approaching the region by late in the day Wednesday. Ahead of this boundary, Wednesday could be the hottest day of the year as a very strong low level thermal ridge sets up over northeast Oklahoma while southwesterly downslope flow enhances warming through the region. High temperatures of 105 plus degrees could be common Wednesday afternoon across eastern Oklahoma.

The passing front brings at least some slightly cooler temperatures and more rain chances to parts of the area, though the forecast still remains fairly hot and mostly dry through the period. A few days on the fringes of northwesterly flow aloft will maintain some low rain chances into the weekend, but widespread meaningful rainfall still appears sparse and drought will likely persist or intensify over much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The ridge looks to shift back over the Southern Plains by late next weekend maintaining hot and dry conditions.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast through the majority of the TAF period as a weak frontal boundary sags into the CWA this afternoon and tonight. Low storm chances develop along and near the boundary mid/late afternoon and remain forecast into the overnight hours over mainly northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will continue Prob30 groups for timing of the greater potential. Gusty to locally strong downburst winds are the main threat within the stronger convection. Winds start the period out of the south, becomes westerly as the boundary approaches, and then to northwest/northerly behind the frontal passage. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 104 77 97 76 / 20 30 20 10 FSM 104 78 102 75 / 10 10 30 30 MLC 104 78 102 75 / 0 10 30 20 BVO 104 72 95 70 / 20 30 20 10 FYV 101 75 96 72 / 20 30 20 20 BYV 100 74 93 70 / 20 20 20 10 MKO 103 75 99 73 / 20 20 20 20 MIO 101 73 93 72 / 30 30 10 10 F10 104 75 100 73 / 20 20 20 20 HHW 101 77 104 77 / 0 0 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-059-068- 069-075-154-172-254-276-376.

Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for OKZ055>058-060>067-070- 071-073-074-176-272-354.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 119-120-229.

Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for ARZ129-219-220.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.