textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

- Low rain chances late tonight/Thursday morning across NE OK and NW AR

- Low chances of showers and thunderstorms for the weekend, with a limited severe weather potential during the period.

- Temperatures near to above mid May normals forecast through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A weak frontal boundary continues to drift southward across the forecast area today, primarily ushering in a drier airmass and northeasterly winds. Temperatures north of the boundary will remain near 80 degrees for highs this afternoon, while locations across southeast Oklahoma climb into the upper 80s with a later frontal passage. Overall, a pleasant day is in store with low impact weather persisting as surface ridging moves overhead. The surface ridge will shift eastward this evening with southerly winds increasing overnight tonight in response to a tightening gradient over the region. The surface front will also surge back northward late tonight with elevated warm advection setting up across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A few showers or thunderstorms could develop on the nose of this ascent toward daybreak Thursday. Severe weather potential is very low with any activity.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Ongoing scattered showers and storms will be possible Thursday morning across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas before shifting northeast by midday. Gusty southerly winds of 30-35mph will develop Thursday morning into the afternoon leading to robust moisture return over the region by Thursday night. A weak mid level wave will track across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma Thursday afternoon and evening. This disturbance will interact with the better moisture to possibly spark a few showers and thunderstorms across northwest and north central Oklahoma late in the day Thursday. This activity is primarily progged to stay focused west and north of the forecast area, but a storm or two could creep into far western portions of the forecast area Thursday night with a limited severe potential. Another round of warm advection showers/storms will be possible friday morning in association with the passing shortwave.

Friday will be warm and breezy once again, with highs possibly approaching 90 in some areas, though more cloud cover should limit the temps from reaching full potential. Thunderstorm chances will exist again on Friday afternoon and evening, though slightly better chances will arrive overnight Friday into Saturday morning as storms that develop across western Oklahoma track eastward into eastern Oklahoma. Above normal temperatures and at least low thunderstorm chances, with limited severe potential, will exist each day through Sunday as rich moisture remains planted over the region. A stronger storm system is expected to eject out across the Central and Northern Plains by early next week, dragging another frontal boundary into the region. The boundary is progged to linger in the vicinity into the middle part of the next week. This will be the best chance for more widespread thunderstorm potential. The slow moving nature of the boundary would suggest a heavy rain threat could emerge, especially with forecast PWAT values near climatological maximums. Severe potential will also exist, though timing and greatest threat remain uncertain at this range.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will remain out of the northeast to east today behind the front then gradually veer to the southeast by mid-morning Thursday. Low level warm advection within a progressive upper ridge will aid in cloud and isolated shower or storm development into Thursday morning. With low (<20%) storm chances will not include any mention of convection at the terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 59 85 70 88 / 10 10 10 20 FSM 56 84 63 89 / 10 10 0 10 MLC 60 85 70 88 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 55 85 68 89 / 20 20 10 20 FYV 52 79 66 86 / 10 20 0 20 BYV 50 79 65 86 / 0 20 0 20 MKO 57 83 68 87 / 10 0 0 20 MIO 53 80 66 85 / 20 20 0 20 F10 58 84 71 87 / 10 0 0 20 HHW 62 85 68 86 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.