textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Thunderstorm chances continue through tonight into Sunday with limited severe potentials and a locally heavy rain threat.

- Temps near to above mid May normals forecast for most of next week with low rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms currently across central Oklahoma will continue to move east and southeast through the overnight hours. Meager instability north of I-40 will limit much in the way of severe potential with this activity across northeast Oklahoma. Dry air in the lower levels could potentially lead to some gusty winds though with these showers and storms as evaporative processes aid in enhancing downdrafts. Still any winds will likely stay sub severe with some gusts near 50 mph possible with the strongest storms. As the complex and associated MCV drift southeastward, at least some intensification will be possible during the early morning hours as the storms interact a little more unstable atmosphere across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Strong wind gusts will continue to be the primary threat through the night, along with some locally heavy rainfall as storms train over some of the same locations.

Heading into Sunday morning, mid level frontogenesis is progged to intensify from northwest to southeast across central into southeast Oklahoma. A subtle mid level wave will also clip the region. This will lead to increasing showers and storms along this boundary near daybreak. Shower and storm activity should expand in coverage across northeast Oklahoma and slowly worm southeastward through the afternoon into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Best severe potential will be focused across southeast Oklahoma from late morning through mid afternoon. North of I-40, mostly general thunderstorms and showers are expected through the day with some gusty winds possible again with the stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall could also be an issue, especially across southeast Oklahoma where greater coverage and intensity of storms is expected. Activity should shift south and east of the forecast area on Sunday night, with cooler and dry conditions following the boundary.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Generally quiet and warming conditions are expected through much of the workweek this week. A few showers could linger over southeast Oklahoma into Monday morning before clearing out. Dry northwest flow aloft will remain over the region through the first part of the week as mid level ridging builds across the Intermountain West. A subtle wave will drop southeast across the region on Tuesday, bringing a weak surface boundary with it. This could lead to a few showers or storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Severe weather potential appears very low at this time. Mid level ridging then shifts eastward over the Southern Plains through mid week, leading to warming temperatures with increasingly breezy southerly winds and dry weather persisting. Highs will trend above normal Wednesday and especially on Thursday with some 90s possible by late week. The ridge breaks down somewhat late week into the weekend with more zonal flow developing over much of the Plains. This could begin a period of more unsettled conditions more like mid May, with chances for showers and storms possibly increasing heading into the next week.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Showers will be most likely at KMLC this morning, with some shower chance as far northeast as KRVS and KTUL. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with the northwest Arkansas sites most likely to be impacted, although some thunder chance will also exist at KMLC this afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail outside of heavier storms this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 72 51 77 54 / 50 10 0 0 FSM 76 58 78 50 / 70 20 0 0 MLC 73 57 77 54 / 80 20 0 0 BVO 72 44 77 50 / 40 0 0 0 FYV 75 52 78 51 / 70 10 0 0 BYV 73 51 75 51 / 60 10 0 0 MKO 73 54 76 52 / 60 10 0 0 MIO 72 47 75 52 / 10 0 0 0 F10 72 53 76 52 / 70 10 0 0 HHW 74 60 76 54 / 70 60 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.