textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1035 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 - A slight chance of rain continues Monday. A cold front will result in much cooler weather near and north of I-44.

- Drier and warmer on Tuesday with elevated fire weather potential.

- An unsettled weather pattern returns beginning Wednesday. Areas of heavy rainfall and severe weather may occur at times for the middle to end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours. These will form along the elevated frontal zone where a mid level trough is providing lift. Any thunderstorms will remain weak and isolated. The cold front will gradually work south, nearly pushing out of the southern portion of the forecast area by dawn. Low temperatures will vary considerably across the boundary, with lower 50s in far southeast OK and as cool as the mid 30s near the OK-KS border. Much of northwest AR will stay on the mild side of the shallow boundary, with lows mostly in the mid 40s.

During the day Monday, the cold front will retreat north as a warm front. It will remain oriented southwest to northeast, likely stalling across east-central OK into west-central AR. Areas to the north of the boundary will be cool, with highs in the 50s, but south of the boundary 60s to 70s are anticipated. Most of Monday will be dry but a few isolated showers may occur, particularly near the OK-KS border. Any accumulation looks to be minimal.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of the next week, as southerly flow strengthens and very warm air pours back into the area. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s. With warm, dry, and breezy conditions, areas of fire weather concerns are expected. Recent rains may diminish this to some point, but the reality is that many areas still have not seen meaningful rain, so the ongoing dry fuel may still be an issue. A few showers and storms could form by Tuesday evening for the far northwest part of the area (north-central OK), including some thunderstorms.

The next stormy period arrives Wednesday, with rain chances increasing across the area into Thursday. A cold front will slide southeast, likely stalling somewhere across the middle of the area. Meanwhile, upper level forcing will improve as an upper level low moves by to the north, with the trough crossing the region. With the already warm and relatively humid airmass in place, precipitation is expected to blossom. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible, especially for the southeastern half of the area with PWAT near the 99th percentile for this time of year. Additionally, a few marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out given decent elevated instability, with hail probably being the primary threat. Model guidance still shows some uncertainties on the exact axis of heaviest rain or highest thunder potential so keep an eye out for updates.

A deeper trough will dig into the southwest US for the end of the week and weekend. Initially this will send another round of warm and humid air into the area. In fact, dew points on Friday could easily reach the low 60s for much of the area. Meanwhile, upper level diffluence will increase overhead. Most model guidance wants to kick off showers and thunderstorms within the warm sector. Forecast soundings and hodographs show an environment more conducive to severe weather, so this will be a period to watch closely. Continued high PWAT will also allow for locally heavy rainfall. Additional storminess is expected Saturday as the cold front arrives, though the risk of severe weather will be lower by then. Several days of potentially heavy rainfall may begin to allow for some flood potential for harder hit areas. With the cold front finally to the south, next Sunday appears that it will be cooler but dry.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Potential for shower and thunderstorm impacts will persist for the next few hours at XNA/ROG/FYV, with the ongoing activity expected to shift east of the NE OK sites by the beginning of the period. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings should prevail for much of the period at all sites. Confidence is lowest regarding that at FSM where some guidance shows a much more brief window with category reduction tomorrow morning before returning to VFR in the afternoon and evening. With a persistent east wind expected at FSM will keep the reduced ceiling in the TAF for now. A low chance of additional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon continues, although a chance not high enough to include explicitly in the TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 68 44 57 53 / MMM 80 10 20 FSM 81 52 69 54 / MMM 50 30 10 MLC 80 50 66 58 / MMM 30 10 10 BVO 57 38 55 46 / MMM 70 20 20 FYV 76 49 64 53 / MMM 80 40 20 BYV 64 45 57 52 / MMM 90 40 30 MKO 76 48 61 54 / MMM 60 30 10 MIO 62 44 57 51 / MMM 80 20 20 F10 77 48 59 53 / MMM 60 20 10 HHW 79 56 73 58 / MMM 20 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.