textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1148 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Temperatures near or below seasonal averages into the upcoming weekend, then begin to warm into early next week. - A weak upper-level disturbance and a cold front will bring shower chances to the area on Thursday.

- Pleasant and largely dry conditions persist Friday and through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Broad subsidence and weak quasi-zonal flow aloft remain in control across the Southern Plains in the wake of yesterday's upper-level system. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure centered across central Texas has resulted in light winds and abundant sunshine that will persist through this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid-to- upper 60s to near 70 degrees along the Red River.

For tonight, high pressure will begin to drift eastward toward the lower Mississippi Valley, shifting surface winds from a light southerly breeze to near calm overnight. Skies will stay mostly clear through the first half of the night before high-level cirrus clouds begins filtering in from the northwest ahead of an approaching trough. Mainly clear skies, dry dewpoints, and light winds should promote efficient radiational cooling during the night. Overnight lows will bottom out in the lower 40s, even perhaps upper 30s in isolated spots, across valley locations, while ridges and urban areas remain in the mid-to-upper 40s.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A compact, northern stream shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the Central Plains into the Ozarks on Thursday. High-resolution guidance and convective ensembles continue to show moisture return ahead of this feature will be limited, with PWAT values maxing out between 0.75 and 1.0 inch. The NBM maintains a wide range of PoPs (20-70%) Thursday, with highest chances mainly confined to east-central Oklahoma and generally west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. Instability is expected to be very limited, MUCAPE mainly less than 300 J/kg, but an isolated rumble of thunder or two cannot be completely ruled out, especially across east- central Oklahoma in the afternoon. Rainfall accumulations are forecast to be on the light side, with consensus in guidance showing accumulations anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to one third of an inch possible. A reinforcing cold front will sweep through behind the passing upper-wave Thursday afternoon and evening, turning winds back out of the northwest and ushering in another shot of cool, dry air.

For Friday through the weekend, global guidance and ensembles are in strong alignment on expansive mid-level ridging building across the central CONUS. Surface high pressure settles over the area Friday and Saturday, crisp fall-like mornings with lows generally in the mid-to-upper 30s and lower 40s through the upcoming weekend. A few areas may even dip to or just below freezing, especially Saturday night/Sunday morning. Highs will hold in the upper 50s to mid 60s through the weekend before moderating into the upper 60s and lower 70s by early next week.

As the ridge axis slides eastward early to mid-week next week, sustained southerly return flow will become re-established across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This will foster a gradual warming trend, with afternoon highs climbing into the low- to-mid 70s Tuesday and next Wednesday. Model consensus remains dry CWA-wide through the extended forecast window, with no significant weather hazards or organized storm systems on the horizon.

Mejia

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all terminals. West-northwest winds continue today with a few transient gusts 15-20 knots possible across NE OK and NW AR, with L/V prevailing after 00z. Increase in mid and high clouds across NE OK Thursday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 45 66 44 59 / 0 50 30 0 FSM 46 71 50 64 / 0 20 20 0 MLC 44 72 45 62 / 0 20 40 0 BVO 40 61 38 58 / 0 50 20 0 FYV 37 69 38 59 / 0 0 30 0 BYV 46 68 46 58 / 0 0 20 0 MKO 44 68 44 60 / 0 20 40 0 MIO 42 64 43 58 / 0 20 20 0 F10 45 69 44 60 / 0 30 40 0 HHW 46 73 50 67 / 0 20 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.