textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 635 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Widespread triple digit temps with heat indices from 105 to 115 degrees continue today ahead of a cold front.

- Scattered storms possible along the front late this afternoon and evening. Locally damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

- A cool front will bring more pleasant weather for the weekend into early next week, but the heat will return by the latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1200 PM AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A lingering band of showers associated with a decaying overnight MCS will continue to weaken and shift southeastward through the early afternoon leaving behind clearing skies. Additionally, deep layer ridging is shifting southwestward today as a notably strong shortwave trough drops southeastward through the Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Valley through this afternoon and into tomorrow. This will drive a cold front through the region later this afternoon through the overnight hours. Ahead of the front today, expect another hot and humid day as a strong low level thermal ridge becomes aligned along the I-44 corridor. Hot low level temps will likely mix down to the surface, aided by some drying downslope westerly flow, resulting in widespread triple digit temperatures by mid afternoon across the region. Some places could make a run at 105 degrees for highs, especially across northeast Oklahoma under the thermal ridge axis. The temperatures combined with relatively high dewpoints will lead to another day of oppressive heat index values of 110 to 115 degrees or more in some locations. Therefore, will maintain the current configuration of heat headlines. Falling temperatures, lower dewpoints, and gusty northerly winds will filter in behind the passing front by late afternoon across northeast Oklahoma bringing some relief to the heat later in the day.

As the front pushes south of the I-44 corridor, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop just ahead of the boundary during the late afternoon hours within a moderately unstable air mass. Deep inverted V profiles along with modest deep layer shear signal a potential for locally strong downbursts to develop within the stronger, more organized updrafts through the early evening hours. High mid level moisture content will also promote heavy rainfall rates which could lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially in more urban or low lying environments. Storms should begin to weaken and move out of the forecast area by late evening as the front pushes through southeast Oklahoma.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Noticeably cooler and drier air will arrive for the weekend behind the front, making it feel much more pleasant outside compared to the past several days. Gusty northerly winds will pick up again Saturday afternoon as increased flow aloft mixes to the surface and wraps around the backside of the departing shortwave. Pleasant conditions for early August continue into the beginning of next week before temperatures begin to warm again. The upper ridge is progged to broaden and build back in across much of the southern United States through the end of next week. A return to near triple digit heat is likely, though dewpoints look to stay a little lower than they have been through much of July. Rain chances look to stay little to none through the rest of the period after this evening.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along a cold front may impact the southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites this evening. VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of the showers and storms. North to northwest winds will gust to over 20 knots at times during the day Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 103 73 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 101 74 91 71 / 0 30 0 0 MLC 102 73 91 69 / 20 30 0 0 BVO 101 69 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 97 68 84 65 / 0 40 0 0 BYV 97 67 82 65 / 10 40 0 0 MKO 102 71 89 68 / 10 20 0 0 MIO 99 68 85 66 / 20 0 0 0 F10 103 72 91 68 / 20 20 0 0 HHW 102 76 92 69 / 10 20 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-069-172.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>068- 070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 119-120.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219- 220-229.