textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 633 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday. Any stronger storms will be capable of locally gusty winds and heavy downpours.

- A trend toward drier and hotter conditions will continue through early next week. Heat indices will reach 105-110 F for many areas Monday and Tuesday with heat headlines likely.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

An upper level low continues to spin across central Texas, with a convergent boundary along the edge of its influence stretching NW-SE through Oklahoma. Showers and storms have all ended for now, though there is a hint of a few weak showers redeveloping near dawn in some CAMs. Low temperatures will nudge upwards just slightly from last night, generally in the low to mid 70s.

Temperatures will be flat or warm slightly Saturday as the upper level ridge begins to strengthen and the upper level low to the south retreats and diminishes. Highs will mostly be in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s. Even so, with a warm and humid airmass in place and some lingering forcing, showers and storms will again fire up for the late morning and afternoon hours. Storm coverage will likely be more minimal than Friday, with a 15-25% chance of rain for most areas. The impacts of any storms will be brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Upper level ridging will build more strongly into the area Sunday through Tuesday, with 500 hPa heights approaching 597 dm. Surface temperatures will increase a few degrees each day, with mid to upper 90s Sunday and Monday. The low level thermal profile will reach its warmest on Tuesday ahead of a weak surface front. Model guidance warms temperatures to 98-105 F across the area. With still decent levels of humidity, heat indices of 100-110 F can be anticipated, with heat headlines likely.

Ensemble guidance then suggests a cold front will move into the area later Tuesday and Wednesday. It is not certain whether it will just be a glancing blow near the KS and MO borders, or whether it will dig more deeply into the area. In the case where the cold front stays further north, temperatures will remain in the upper 90s to low 100s with higher heat indices. On the other hand if it moves further south, at least the northern portions of the area could get a brief and mild reprieve from the worst of the heat for a couple of days (emphasis on the mild, meaning perhaps 5 F of cooling). It is also possible, and some guidance indicates this, that a few showers or storms may form near the front.

Regardless of which direction the guidance trends on the front, the upper ridge looks to remain in place through the end of next week, with temperatures remaining hot through day 7 and likely beyond.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening, but chances are too low at any one site to include in the TAF's.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 93 76 96 78 / 20 10 0 0 FSM 95 76 97 76 / 20 0 0 10 MLC 93 75 95 76 / 20 20 0 10 BVO 91 74 95 75 / 20 10 10 0 FYV 91 73 92 74 / 20 10 10 0 BYV 91 73 93 73 / 20 10 20 0 MKO 91 74 94 76 / 20 20 0 0 MIO 90 74 94 75 / 20 10 10 0 F10 90 73 94 75 / 20 20 0 10 HHW 91 74 95 75 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.