textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 632 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Shower and isolated storm coverage expected to expand tonight through early Sunday with overall rainfall amounts remaining light. Mostly dry weather on Monday.

- Above normal temperatures continue through early next week.

- Unsettled weather for mid to late week. Expect several periods of high rain chances and heavy rain potential. Some severe weather potential will exist as well.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expanding late this evening as expected across north central into northeast Oklahoma in association with an increasing low level jet and a mid level disturbance evident on water vapor satellite to the west of the area near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. This activity will gradually shift eastward through daybreak, with a more southeastward expansion into the daylight hours Sunday following the movement of the disturbance. Coverage should decrease some during the afternoon with low chances focusing across southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. Any heavier rainfall totals through Sunday afternoon should be fairly spotty, but given precipitable water values just below seasonal maxes, localized totals up to an inch or so may occur. Highs during the day should be a couple of degrees under the NBM values with lingering clouds and showers and have been adjusted that direction using the short-term blended guidance.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Overall, the period from Sunday night through Monday night will be relatively quiet comparatively, with low shower and thunderstorm chances focused along and south of I-40 through Monday afternoon and dry conditions Monday night. Temperatures during both the overnight and the daytime will continue to be above seasonal normals.

The focus of the forecast next week remains on the much anticipated slow-moving storm system set to move across the southern United States and the increased likelihood of a heavy rainfall event for the region. The evolution of the storm system remains very much uncertain, but model trends point toward a more delayed eastward movement than previous. After the aforementioned dry Monday night, shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase once again across mainly northeast Oklahoma during the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night in response to a lead disturbance forecast to move through the region ahead of the main upper level system. This should keep high temperatures cooler across northern areas, with summer-like temperatures hanging on south of I-40. Tuesday nights lows will be warmer than previous nights, reflecting an increase low level wind speeds and moisture. As the main storm system shifts east toward mid to late week, high shower and thunderstorm chances will spread from west to east, with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible given precipitable water forecasts near seasonal maxes. Temperatures during the latter part of next week and into the early part of the next weekend should be below normal and more fall-like. Current projections indicate that the main storm system should shift east of the area by the weekend, with only low chances for additional rainfall lingering.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms, especially impacting the northwest Arkansas sites, will diminish by midday. VFR conditions will prevail outside of the heavier downpours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 85 66 86 67 / 50 10 10 0 FSM 88 67 91 67 / 40 20 10 0 MLC 92 68 93 69 / 40 20 20 0 BVO 84 62 83 63 / 30 10 10 10 FYV 83 62 86 63 / 60 10 10 0 BYV 81 62 83 63 / 60 10 10 0 MKO 85 66 89 67 / 70 20 10 0 MIO 81 64 82 65 / 70 20 10 0 F10 87 65 89 67 / 50 20 10 0 HHW 93 68 91 69 / 20 30 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.