textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Near record to record warmth is expected again Tuesday.

- Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will occur Wednesday and Thursday, mainly across northeast Oklahoma and possibly into far northwest Arkansas. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible on Wednesday.

- A cold front will bring much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Upper-level ridging over the Southeast CONUS will shift slowly eastward through Tuesday as a cut-off low and troughing pattern deepens across the Intermountain West. Low-level southerly flow continues to intensify over eastern OK and northwest AR, maintaining an active moisture advection off the Western Gulf. Atmospheric moisture is already abnormally elevated, with PWATs trending to near-record levels for mid-October (1.6 to 1.8+ inches, well above the 90th percentile climatologically).

Weak embedded lead disturbances moving through southwesterly flow aloft will interact with this rich moisture field to generate a few isolated showers and elevated convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest HREF focuses best chances (20-30%) occurring in the higher terrain areas of southeast OK and northwest AR. Assuming convection can initiate, QPF amounts and weather impacts will stay minimal. The increased low-level moisture should mitigate fire weather concerns on Tuesday, though southerly winds will remain breezy and occasionally gusty. Record or near-record temperatures will continue again on Tuesday, with afternoon highs reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. A few of the warmer-prone areas of the CWA will likely approach 95 degrees.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Moisture and atmospheric forcing will peak Wednesday night through Thursday night as the main upper trough axis lifts over the Rockies and gradually over the Central/Southern Plains. This will help push a strong surface cold front to near or just south of the OK/KS border Wednesday night before stalling. The front is expected to briefly lift northward Thursday morning as a surface low lifts towards the Midwest Region. On the backside of the departing surface low, the frontal boundary is forecast to push through the CWA starting late Thursday afternoon (or early evening) and continue to slide through the CWA late Thursday night. Both ECMWF ENS and NAEFS ENS show extreme moisture flux, producing anomalously high IVT values exceeding 500-750 kg/m/s and PWATs near or at record values across eastern OK and western AR on Wednesday into Thursday. This intense moisture transport, coupled with strong synoptic lift and frontal convergence will support pronounced, heavy convective rainfall along and ahead of the boundary. As mentioned in the previous discussion, dewpoint temperatures are forecast to spike into the low to middle 70s Wednesday afternoon. With plenty of instability and sufficient bulk wind shear in place, a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may form ahead of the approaching front during the daytime Wednesday, mostly focused near and north of I-40. Marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards with severe storms.

The National Blend of Models and global ensembles continue to highlight high rainfall probabilities (70-90% PoPs), but have trended total rainfall amounts lower than the previous forecast package. Consensus in model data still show the highest probabilities of precipitation and highest rainfall amounts near and north of I-44 basically from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. Overall, updated storm-total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized higher totals up to 5 inches, are anticipated, mainly for areas along and north of I-44 through Friday morning. At this time, locations south of I-44 are expected to receive significantly less rainfall, generally less than an inch. Given the overall decrease in rainfall totals, will opt not to issue a Flood Watch at this time, though heavy rainfall may still cause minor flooding at times. An impromptu Flood Watch may still need to be considered for portions of northeast OK if QPF values trend higher over the next 24 hours.

The cold front will flush the moisture plume eastward late Thursday night and into Friday. Post-frontal high pressure building south from Canada will yield a fairly pleasant autumn airmass Friday through at least through the upcoming weekend, with well below normal temperatures on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will then trend warmer and possibly back above average by Monday. Expect mostly dry conditions, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, and daytime highs trending towards the upper 70s and lower 80s by Monday. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the upper 30s and 40s over the upcoming weekend.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas of MVFR ceilings extend across SE OK and western AR and may briefly expand into NE OK through the morning. Ceilings will likely vary between flight levels through the morning with a trend toward all VFR ceilings this afternoon and evening. Winds will become gusty this morning and remain so through the afternoon. Thunderstorms developing west and north of the region this evening will spread south and east overnight and likely impact terminals across NE OK and NW AR late tonight into the day Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 93 73 82 68 / 0 40 90 80 FSM 93 75 90 70 / 10 10 60 30 MLC 89 75 89 68 / 10 10 60 40 BVO 93 68 79 63 / 0 60 90 100 FYV 87 70 83 65 / 10 20 80 30 BYV 90 73 82 69 / 10 20 80 30 MKO 90 73 85 68 / 10 20 80 50 MIO 91 70 79 66 / 0 60 80 90 F10 90 73 85 68 / 10 20 80 70 HHW 90 74 91 68 / 10 10 30 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.