textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 - Very hot conditions through Wednesday followed by some slight cooling, but temperatures will remain above average into next week.

- A few isolated showers and storms may occur at times this week, particularly Wednesday into Thursday, but overall dry weather will continue.

- At least limited fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying fuels and periods of breezy winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The overnight hours will be dominated largely by clear skies and warm temperatures for all locations. Southerly winds will gradually pick up overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping off much, even though dewpoints are relatively low across the region. Lows in the upper 70s to mid 80s will be common by sunrise Wednesday with breezy southerly winds persisting. A few elevated showers will be possible just after sunrise across portions of far northeast Oklahoma within a zone of increased warm advection ascent ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Most precip likely will not reach the ground, but what does will be light with little to no measurable precipitation expected. These showers and sprinkles will drift to the northeast and gradually dissipate through the morning as the low level jet weakens.

The rest of the day Wednesday will likely prove to be the hottest day of the year for most, even after record temperatures on Tuesday. A strong low level thermal ridge will set up from central into eastern Oklahoma ahead of the surface cool front which will move into northeast Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. Efficient mixing of very warm 850mb temps, along with downslope southwesterly surface flow and mostly clear skies will allow temps to quickly rise into the triple digits by midday. Widespread highs of 105 plus degrees can be expected again during the afternoon with some places reaching 110 or more. The current headlines remain unchanged, with the Extreme Heat Warning in place across much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, while a Heat Advisory remains across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas where some uncertainty in frontal position and cloud cover could keep those places slightly cooler. Like previous days, a few isolated showers or storms will be possible over the terrain areas during peak heating hours.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The frontal boundary will slowly sag southward Wednesday evening and overnight. SLightly better chances for thunderstorm development will follow the boundary through the overnight hours across northwest Arkansas, trailing back into eastern Oklahoma. Given forecast profiles, a couple stronger storms could produce strong downburst winds, especially across northwest Arkansas where shear will be stronger in closer proximity to a passing mid level wave. Otherwise, just some brief downpours and lightning will be the main impacts from any storm activity. Thursday will be slightly cooler, but still above normal for most as highs again approach 100, especially across the south.

Upper ridging generally remains centered just to the west of the local region, meaning mainly hot and dry weather will persist through the weekend into early next week. Isolated afternoon showers or storms will continue to be possible, mainly across western Arkansas as various shortwave pass close by in the northwesterly flow aloft. Overall though, coverage is expected to be minimal any one day and most of the area will remain dry. Another front could try to move through the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, bringing another round of slightly cooler temps and at least limited rain chances.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. LLWS will develop overnight into Wednesday morning at the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites. Southwest winds will gust to near 20 knots at times during the day Wednesday at the far northwest Arkansas sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 83 106 76 99 / 0 10 20 0 FSM 77 109 78 104 / 0 20 20 20 MLC 82 108 80 105 / 0 0 20 20 BVO 76 104 70 98 / 0 20 20 0 FYV 77 104 74 98 / 0 20 20 10 BYV 77 102 72 94 / 0 20 50 10 MKO 78 107 75 100 / 0 0 20 10 MIO 77 101 71 95 / 0 20 30 0 F10 79 110 76 102 / 0 0 20 20 HHW 80 103 80 104 / 0 0 0 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ058-063-068-069- 172.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053- 055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276- 354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-002-010-011- 119-120.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ129-219-220- 229.