textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Scattered strong to severe storms from mid afternoon through evening.

- Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night into Sunday.

- Temps near mid May normals forecast next week w/ low rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Cold front currently passing far NW OK and will continue eastward becoming a focus for thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. Guidance is in good agreement on increasing storm coverage through early evening as storms spread east and southeastward across the region. Forecast profiles maintain a drier subcloud layer as low level moisture return is meager with strong deep layer shear that remains near unidirectional through the evening. This will favor supercells with any sustained updrafts with efficient storm splits likely leading to multiple cell interactions with time. The initial storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds with a transition to broken line segments and damaging winds becoming the primary hazard. The eastward extent of the instability axis will be confined within the forecast area with the high value corridor more favored across E OK and points south and westward. This should result in a lesser severe risk with eastward extent while also allowing a quick stabilization trend after sunset which keeps the severe weather confined to the evening hours. The composite cold front and outflow boundary will likely push through far SE OK by sunrise Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The aforementioned boundary will be a focus for storm development and expansion late Saturday through Saturday night. Initial storms are likely to develop well west of the region Saturday afternoon and spread eastward into the forecast area Saturday night. Severe weather potential will be lower with this eastward progression with a limited risk hail risk Saturday night. A stronger wave approaches and passes through the region Sunday through Sunday night driving a cold front south of the area by Monday. Increased forcing in advance of the wave and along the advancing front is likely to sustain the early day convection with the storms spreading southward through Sunday.

Dry and mild day Monday as sfc high pressure settles over the region. Northwesterly flow aloft continues through early next week with the next cold front passing Tuesday or Tuesday night with a chance of shower and storms. The remainder of the work week is forecast to maintain temperatures near seasonal normals and mostly dry conditions. The pattern aloft may trend toward a more unsettled state by next weekend into next week and more typical of mid May.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through early afternoon for all sites. By 21z, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along an advancing frontal boundary in northeast Oklahoma. These storms will move south and east through the evening hours, with impacts possible at all sites. Storms may produce hail, strong and erratic winds, heavy rainfall, and reduced vsbys as a result. By 06z, storms are likely to have exited the local area, with clearing skies overnight. Short term guidance continues to suggest fog potential overnight into Saturday morning, particularly aligned with the rainfall footprint in NE OK and NW AR. Confidence was high enough to include vsby reduction in the KBVO TAF with this forecast issuance, but additional sites may need to be included in future updates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 55 84 62 71 / 40 0 80 60 FSM 58 86 61 77 / 40 0 50 80 MLC 58 86 64 75 / 60 0 70 90 BVO 49 84 57 70 / 20 0 70 50 FYV 53 84 59 73 / 60 0 50 70 BYV 54 82 58 70 / 60 0 40 70 MKO 55 83 61 72 / 70 0 70 80 MIO 52 81 58 68 / 50 0 50 50 F10 55 83 61 72 / 70 0 80 90 HHW 59 83 64 79 / 30 0 30 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.