textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Rain chances expand in coverage Saturday night through Sunday with overall rainfall amounts remaining light. Mostly dry weather on Monday.

- Above normal temperatures continue through early next week.

- Unsettled weather for mid week as a slow moving storm system interacts with tropical moisture. Expect several periods of high rain chances through mid to late week. Heavy rainfall and possibly some severe weather will be a focus.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Mid level troughing remains anchored to the west of the local region with persistent lift across the region aiding multiple areas of showers and storms both in and near the forecast area. Well established cold pool from the early day convection will leave a defined boundary for possible late afternoon or evening storms to initiate on. The most likely zone for this scenario is along the far western portions of the forecast area and points westward. A more likely scenario into the overnight hours will be strengthening upglide atop the cold pool further aided by the approaching mid level trough to yield an expanding area of showers and storms across E OK / NW AR through the overnight hours into early Sunday. The prevailing flow will transition toward NW to SE and the evolving convection will spread E and SE through the early part of Sunday with precip chances decreasing by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will again be largely impacted by the extent and duration of the expected showers and storms, but once the rains end a quick warm up is possible.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Upper ridge axis extends across the forecast area Monday with decreasing rain chances and temps well above seasonal normals. Most guidance does maintain low rain chances primarily south of Interstate 40 but any coverage is expected to remain low.

The pattern across the southern Plains transitions on Tuesday as stronger flow aloft spreads downstream of a slow moving mid level trough over the southwest CONUS. This trough will gather the remnant of tropical system Pollo and spread the deep moisture plume eastward across the Plains. The persistent trend has been for a slower trough advance with the higher rain chances now focused in the Wednesday through Thursday time frame. Expect multiple corridors of heavy rainfall to develop in or near the forecast area through mid week. A window of severe weather potential may also develop within the strengthening wind fields, however uncertainty also remains in specific details at this time range. The slow moving upper trough may have lingering effects into Friday, but once it pushes east of the region then dry weather will return. Potential for a stronger cold front next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the afternoon across NE OK and NW AR sites. Mainly VFR conditions should prevail outside of some brief VSBY reductions within any thunderstorms. Another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast for tonight with similar impacts expected. Winds will generally remain around 10 knots or less outside of some convective influences.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 68 87 67 87 / 70 40 20 10 FSM 68 92 67 92 / 30 60 30 10 MLC 68 95 69 94 / 50 60 40 20 BVO 65 84 65 84 / 60 20 20 10 FYV 65 87 64 87 / 70 60 20 10 BYV 64 82 63 84 / 60 60 20 10 MKO 66 90 67 90 / 60 60 20 10 MIO 65 81 65 83 / 70 50 20 0 F10 67 91 67 90 / 60 50 20 10 HHW 68 93 69 90 / 30 40 40 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.