textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Shower and storms chances increase west to east Wednesday afternoon/evening for eastern Oklahoma and Wednesday night into Thursday morning for northwest Arkansas.

- Several periods of a heavy rain threat as well as limited severe weather potential exists Wednesday night and Thursday. Heavy rain potential tapers off during the day Friday.

- Above normal temperatures continue Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Area of low pressure moving into the Desert Southwest Tuesday night will continue its easterly movement just behind the remnants of tropical system Polo lifting northeast over New Mexico and the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. East of these systems, mostly cloudy skies become common across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas which will help to keep low temperatures early Wednesday morning in the mid 60s to mid 70s forecast.

During the day Wednesday, as the remnants of Polo lift northward into the central Plains, the area of low pressure will move out into the southern Plains. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, gusty southerly winds and above seasonal average temperatures are forecast for the CWA, while cloud cover remains scattered/broken. The gusty southerly low level flow will help moisture advection with precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches spread over the CWA. At the same time, as a plume of drier air between Polo and the low pressure system moves into western Oklahoma, a moisture boundary is progged to develop and become the focus for convective development. Storms are forecast to develop out west and move into eastern Oklahoma late afternoon/evening, and continue to spread east and northeast over eastern Oklahoma Wednesday night. This activity is currently anticipated to reach into northwest Arkansas late Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

Instability looks to remain marginal ahead of the convective band moving into the CWA Wednesday evening/night. However, 0-1km shear values of 20-35KT along with pockets of 0-1km storm relative helicity of 200+ m2/s2 are forecast Wednesday night into Thursday. These conditions could allow for a limited severe potential to develop as the storms move into and across the CWA. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary severe threat, though there remains a non-zero potential for a quick spin up tornado along the leading line. In addition to the severe potential, the ample amounts of tropical moisture advecting into the region will create a heavy rain threat which could lead to localized flooding conditions.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Widespread showers along with chances for thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas while the area of low pressure makes its way into western Oklahoma/west central Kansas. The main convective area is currently forecast to push east and southeast Thursday into Thursday night with the highest PoPs across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Thursday evening. A continued limited severe potential as well as an ongoing heavy rain threat remain forecast Thursday over much of the region. Like Wednesday/Wednesday night, overall instability is forecast to be marginal.

Behind the main area of showers/storms, scattered lighter rain showers become possible for northeast Oklahoma by Thursday evening and continues into Friday. This is in response to a mid level layer of drier air wrapping into the low pressure system as it becomes more elongated from southwest to northeast and lifts off to the northeast. Thus, the heavy rain threat is forecast to reside over southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas Thursday night into Friday morning.

Also Thursday night into Friday, an upper level trof axis is progged to move eastward across the northern Plains, and push a trailing cold front through the Plains into the CWA. This will also help to push the greater shower and limited storm potential southeast through the region Friday. By Friday afternoon, the higher PoPs look to move out of the CWA with the movement of the cold front. Behind the front, scattered rain chances and limited thunder potential continues Friday afternoon/evening for the CWA while a portion of the low pressure systems trof axis holds back over the region. Low rain chances look to linger into Saturday night before the weak trof axis gets a push eastward from a second upper level trof moving across the Plains. Behind the second wave, drier conditions are forecast for next week.

When all said and done, widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 3.5 inches with locally higher amounts approaching 5 inches are forecast Wednesday evening through Friday night. The majority of this rainfall is current forecast Wednesday night through Friday morning, which again could create localized flooding conditions. The greater potential is over east central and southeast Oklahoma.

Lastly, temperatures after Wednesday are forecast to become more fall like with high temperatures Friday in the 70s to low 80s. The cooler conditions are forecast to remain for the weekend into early next week as well.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the day today, with south winds gusting over 20 knots at times. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the eastern Oklahoma sites by late afternoon or early evening, and will continue overnight. A few showers may reach the northwest Arkansas sites overnight. MVFR conditions will develop at the eastern Oklahoma sites this evening after the onset of precipitation.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 86 70 76 65 / 40 90 100 70 FSM 94 74 85 70 / 0 20 80 90 MLC 94 71 83 67 / 20 80 100 80 BVO 84 66 75 62 / 40 100 90 60 FYV 90 67 83 65 / 0 20 80 80 BYV 89 71 83 67 / 0 10 60 80 MKO 91 70 79 65 / 10 80 100 70 MIO 84 69 74 64 / 10 80 90 80 F10 89 70 78 64 / 30 90 100 70 HHW 94 72 83 68 / 10 40 90 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.