textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 - Locally enhanced fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday afternoon.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday through Sunday.

- Unsettled weather pattern next week will bring more rain and thunderstorm chances with some severe and heavy rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A seasonably chilly night is expected across the region underneath surface ridging and clear skies. The surface high will shift southeastward through the morning hours Friday leading to a return of southwesterly winds. Winds could become gusty by the afternoon hours, especially across portions of northeast Oklahoma. Temperatures will push into the 70s areawide, with some upper 70s and near record highs likely across parts of eastern Oklahoma. The warm temperatures along with relatively dry air in place, breezy southwesterly winds, and ongoing drought conditions will raise fire weather concerns through the afternoon hours. The worst conditions will align form near the I-44 corridor and points to the northwest where the most favorable conditions will overlap. Modest moisture return ahead of a boundary set to approach the area on Saturday will lend improvement in fire weather conditions by the evening hours. A more mild night is in store for Friday night as southerly flow continues.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Saturday will be another day of near record heat across the region with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for most locations. Increasing low level moisture along with weakening winds near a frontal boundary will lessen fire weather concerns on Saturday at least. A few scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will be possible Saturday morning into the early afternoon across portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas within a zone of weak, elevated warm advection. Any amounts should remain pretty light as any showers will be brief before shifting east of the forecast area. The increasing moisture during the day Saturday will set the stage for more widespread rain chances from Saturday night through Sunday. The aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast to slowly sag southward into northeast Oklahoma by Saturday night before stalling somewhere in the vicinity. Current thinking suggest a zone of showers and thunderstorms will develop first Saturday night along the axis of a low level jet extending from southeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. This activity should then focus more across northeast Oklahoma near the stalled frontal zone through the day Sunday. Where the boundary ultimately sets up will impact the zone of heaviest precipitation along with where colder temperatures will filter in on Sunday.

Differences remain in the placement of the boundary on Sunday, though recent trends have been to hold the coldest air north of the local region, eliminating any in the way of wintry precip with this system. This will bear watching though as a farther south advancement of the front on Sunday could result in a winter mix developing along the OK/KS/MO border. Some elevated instability could also result in a few thunderstorms during the day Sunday with a strong storm or two possible, but a more organized severe threat is not expected.

Guidance diverges significantly on the evolution of the front through the early and mid week period. Some solutions push the front through the region Sunday night with a couple of seasonably cool days Monday and Tuesday, while some hold the front over northeast Oklahoma or even pushes it back north of the local region. This would result in well above normal temperatures continuing into the middle part of the week. Thus have stuck with the blended guidance for this period as a wide range of solutions exist in this scenario.

A more unsettled period looks to unfold by the middle part of the week as western troughing strengthens and rain and storm chances increase again over the Southern Plains. The pattern by mid to late week would be more conducive to widespread heavy rain potential along with some severe possibilities. Continue to monitor the forecast as things take shape into next week.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 50 81 48 / 0 10 20 30 FSM 78 47 81 52 / 0 0 10 20 MLC 79 52 81 54 / 0 10 20 40 BVO 78 44 80 40 / 0 10 10 20 FYV 76 47 78 46 / 0 10 10 20 BYV 73 50 76 45 / 0 10 10 20 MKO 77 50 79 53 / 0 10 20 30 MIO 75 48 76 42 / 0 10 20 10 F10 78 52 81 53 / 0 10 20 30 HHW 76 50 79 56 / 0 10 10 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.