textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 953 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Low chance of rain or sprinkles from far northeast OK into northwest AR tonight, otherwise dry for several days.

- A cold front will drop temperatures back near normal mid week. Potentially stronger cold front this weekend or early next week.

- Fire weather concerns will remain raised on both Wednesday and Friday due to gusty winds behind dry frontal passages.

UPDATE

Issued at 737 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Early evening WV imagery shows a strong shortwave trough diving SSE across Nebraska into Kansas. QG lift in advance of the system, in combination with low to mid-level cold frontogenesis, will force a band of spotty light rain or sprinkles that will graze across NE OK and NW AR tonight. Rain amounts will be minimal at best given lack of moisture in the lower levels. Increasing clouds and steady winds both ahead of and then behind an advancing cold front will keep overnight lows elevated tonight. For the forecast, used the median of the guidance spread in the low to mid 40s.

Lacy

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Downslope component to sfc winds continues today with a sfc ridge axis oriented along Gulf Coast into the Southern Rockies and low to the north. Temps will climb well above normal as a result with winds gusting around 20 mph in some locations resulting in some limited fire spread potential this afternoon, especially west of HIghway 75 where humidity will be lower.

By this evening a NW flow shortwave will drop south and induce a few light rain showers from northwest AR into far northeast OK. Given very dry low levels the overall chance of measurable remains low and limited to just a few hundredths of an inch. This will also push a cold front south overnight with a shift to northwest winds.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Cooler air will continue to surge across the region Wednesday with gusty northwest winds 25-35 mph. While temps will be cooler and RH is not expected to drop to critical levels, some high-res data suggests a corridor of lower dew points Wed afternoon into parts of eastern OK. Should this happen a zone of heightened fire weather concerns could develop. Temperatures will be closer to normal for highs Wed with colder lows for Wed night in the upper teens/20s.

The progressive nature of the pattern continues with the sfc high quickly pushing south and return to south winds by Thursday. This is expected to be followed quickly by another dry cold front on Friday with winds again becoming rather gusty from the northwest with fire weather concerns increasing to some degree, though not critical.

Beyond that the forecast becomes much more uncertain in terms of temperatures with ensembles still showing a large spread, especially by Sunday. Pattern remains dry at least, but worth noting that there has been at least some trend in a more amplified upper pattern next week, which implies some potential for a more significant cold air surge through the middle part of the country at some point.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

No major changes from the 00Z forecast. A strong upper disturbance and associated cold front are bringing increasing mid and high cloud this evening with a few sprinkles followed by a period of lower cloud, including MVFR cigs at the far NW AR sites Wednesday morning. Some spotty MVFR cigs are possible elsewhere but not confident enough to insert mention. The lower cloud will clear out during the afternoon from north to south and will remain that way thru the end of the forecast. Wind gusts behind the front will peak during the day on Wednesday, with gusts 20 to 25 kts most common. Winds will subside aft 00z tomorrow evening.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 44 50 23 52 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 45 53 24 49 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 45 53 23 53 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 42 48 19 52 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 43 48 17 47 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 44 46 18 44 / 30 10 0 0 MKO 45 50 22 51 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 43 46 19 47 / 20 0 0 0 F10 45 51 23 54 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 44 55 25 52 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.