textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Unsettled pattern will maintain daily shower and thunderstorm chances through at least Monday. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns.

- Organized severe storms are not anticipated, but an occasional strong and/or marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out, especially Saturday through Monday.

- Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines possible by midweek.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Recent satellite water vapor imagery shows a very distinct mid/upper-level low near/over Baja CA, with another shortwave moving northeastward across western KS. At the surface, high pressure has settled in over the southeastern CONUS. Locally, this will provide south to southeast winds through the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening as well as advect low-level moisture into the area. Interaction from the passing shortwave and the influx of Gulf moisture will cause a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to drift into the CWA. Radar imagery from KSRX already shows scattered shower and thunderstorm activity beginning to move into far eastern OK and western AR from the south. Closer to the center of the shortwave trough, there is a little better support for a few stronger and potentially severe storms to develop. An isolated storm or two may drift into far northern tier of counties in northeast OK from the west by mid-late afternoon or early evening. If storms are able to move into northeast OK, they will be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. The SPC has included parts of Osage County in a Marginal Risk of severe storms through this afternoon. Farther south and east of this risk area, there is less upper-level support for severe weather. Latest hi-res model data suggest the best overall precipitation chances will remain on the southeast half of the forecast area, or generally south and east of I-44. Though there is less support for severe weather in this area and organized severe thunderstorms are not expected, a few strong cells or cluster of storms cannot be ruled out through early evening. The bigger concern is still heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding. Activity winds down pretty quickly after sunset.

Mostly quiet weather is anticipated after sunset. A few showers may develop overnight, closer to sunrise Friday morning across far southeast OK, but accumulations will be light and impacts are not expected. Temperatures will remain warm and mild through the night, with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast to occur daily into early next week as an upper-level Baja Low drifts over the Plains. Best precipitation on Friday will likely stay focused across southeast OK into northwest AR. More robust and widespread chances will occur Saturday and especially on Sunday. Periods of heavy rainfall are likely through the upcoming weekend, with the heaviest rainfall forecast to fall Saturday night through Sunday night. Though heavy rain and flooding will be the biggest concerns over the next several days, the approaching upper low will increase moisture and bulk shear slightly this weekend and into early next week, introducing a better chance of marginally severe thunderstorms for the area. Details on timing and coverage will come in the next couple of days. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the daytime Monday and into Monday evening as the upper low begins to lift out of the area.

Strong upper level ridging begins to build over the area on Tuesday, with maybe some isolated convection developing in the afternoon from left over moisture and lift from the weekend; most locations should remain dry on Tuesday. Ridging will certainly become the dominate feature by Wednesday, likely ending rain chances, but also increasing temperatures and humidity. Heat headlines may be required each day, possibly as early as Monday, for at least the warmer-prone locations.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early this afternoon. Expect this activity to continue through the early evening before dissipating. NW AR sites will have the highest potential for impacts, including lowered ceilings and reduced vsbys from heavy rainfall. More isolated storms may also impact E OK sites, and a PROB30 group was included for KMLC and KBVO. Currently, rain and lightning potential is too low to include in the TAF for KTUL and KRVS, but will amend as needed. Expansive low clouds are expected to increase across the area Friday morning with MVFR cigs increasing from south to north. A period of IFR cigs is possible for KMLC. Cigs will eventually lift back to VFR, but this may occur late in, or just after, the forecast period. Southerly sfc winds prevail through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 71 87 71 84 / 0 10 10 40 FSM 70 88 70 87 / 20 30 20 60 MLC 71 87 71 85 / 10 10 30 80 BVO 69 88 70 85 / 10 10 10 40 FYV 68 85 69 84 / 10 20 20 40 BYV 67 84 67 84 / 10 20 20 30 MKO 69 85 70 83 / 10 20 20 70 MIO 69 87 69 85 / 10 10 10 30 F10 69 86 69 83 / 0 10 20 70 HHW 70 84 70 83 / 20 40 40 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.