textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Additional severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Higher-end severe weather threats are possible.

- Severe storms may also occur Sunday but confidence is lower.

- Thunderstorm chances linger into Monday and Tuesday across eastern areas, but the severe weather potential appears to be lower.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday Night) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A dry remainder of the overnight is expected, with the evening shower and thunderstorm activity shifting south and east of the area. Light winds and plenty of ground moisture resulting from the rains of the past 24 hours will lead to patchy fog potential in much of the region tonight. Visibility reductions to a mile or less will be possible in localized areas, but widespread dense fog is not expected.

The dry weather is likely to extend through much of the day Saturday, with thunderstorm potential increasing by mid to late afternoon. There should be two favored areas for the initial development, near the warm front stretched across east central Oklahoma into southeast Oklahoma and farther to the north and east near the nose of the mid level jet max. Surface-based instability and wind shear parameters are supportive of supercell thunderstorms featuring high-end severe weather threats in both initiation areas, although a slightly higher potential will exist across the area nearest the warm front. Strong tornadoes will be a possibility given forecast soundings, especially early evening once the low level jet strengthens. The main severe window will extend through late evening and possibly into the early morning hours of Sunday, although more elevated storms may linger beyond that with a lower but non-zero severe weather threat.

If you have plans that take you or your family away from home from mid afternoon into the evening, please make sure to have reliable ways to keep tabs on the weather tomorrow and know where you might seek shelter no matter where you are at.

In addition to the severe weather threats, locally heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding will remain a concern, especially given how much rain has fallen in the past 24 hours across the region. Parts of northeast and east central Oklahoma, extending into western Arkansas, should be most favored given the antecedent conditions but any area that sees repeated heavy rain producing storms tomorrow into tomorrow night will be at risk.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Daybreak Sunday should feature an overall decrease in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, which should continue through at least midday. The severe weather threat on Sunday will likely be more conditional than that expected on Saturday. The environment will be supportive of higher end severe weather threats, although widespread thunderstorm development is not as certain. There should be two main areas of potential development, including closer to the dryline in western and central Oklahoma and with the northward lifting warm front across eastern Oklahoma and eventually, western Arkansas. With the main upper level system expected to eject well the north into the central and northern Plains region, surface boundaries will be slow to completely exit our area to the east, keeping at least low potential for showers and thunderstorms across eastern parts of the area Monday and possibly into Tuesday as well. The severe weather threat early next week with any storms will be lower than both Saturday and Sunday but non-zero. Toward the middle of next week, surface high pressure looks to extend far enough south to bring drier low level air to the region, pushing the shower and thunderstorm potential to the south for a brief period and bringing below normal temperatures. Another storm system approaching from the southwestern United States toward the end of next week will bring another increase in shower and thunderstorm potential to the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

LIFR to MVFR conditions ongoing this morning are expected to lift back to VFR late morning/early afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This afternoon scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast over the CWA, while thunderstorm chances increase from west to east late afternoon and evening. Storm chances remain into the overnight hours, with the greater potential in southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas ofter 06z. Within the convection, gusty/locally strong winds and MVFR conditions are forecast. Will continue with Prob30 groups for timing of greater impact potential. Severe potentials also exist within any storm development this afternoon/tonight. In the wake of the exiting precip late tonight, there are indications of additional MVFR ceilings trying to move into portions of northeast Oklahoma. Wind through the period vary between southeast and northeast due to the warm front moving over the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 80 62 80 69 / 40 60 30 30 FSM 79 63 82 68 / 20 80 40 40 MLC 79 64 83 71 / 50 70 30 20 BVO 79 58 78 64 / 40 60 40 40 FYV 78 59 79 66 / 20 70 40 50 BYV 76 60 78 66 / 10 50 40 50 MKO 78 61 80 68 / 40 70 30 30 MIO 79 60 78 66 / 20 60 40 50 F10 80 61 82 69 / 50 70 30 20 HHW 80 63 83 69 / 30 70 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ062-063- 068-069.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002- 010-011-119-120.