textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Another round of potentially severe weather will occur south of I-40 this afternoon and evening. - Additional severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Severe storms may also occur Sunday but confidence is lower.

- Drier weather is expected to briefly return to the area Monday into Tuesday before an active pattern resumes.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A west-to-east boundary is present across the middle of the forecast area. It is in the process of merging a weak cold front from the north with existing outflow from previous convection. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop near the boundary. Daytime heating and somewhat deeper moisture will result in a reinvigoration of storms mid to late afternoon south of the boundary. Most CAMs agree that scattered supercell formation is likely. Shear in the boundary layer looks relatively low, and the boundary layer will have decent vertical depth, so hail should dominate initially. Hail up to the size of tennis balls may occur. With that said, isolated tornadoes and strong wind remain possible. Over time, storms will consolidate into a line as they move southeast, with wind and perhaps QLCS tornadoes becoming more likely into the late evening. Wind gusts of up to 70 mph may occur.

Areas north of the boundary will see a partly sunny day with some northerly breezes. Overnight, tonight temperatures will cool more effectively than last night, with 50s expected for most spots. Rain chances will be very low overnight.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Saturday morning will see the old boundary surge back north as a warm front. CAMs disagree on how far north it will go, but this is critically important for identifying where the severe potential will maximize. Currently the most likely corridor appears to be somewhere between McAlester and Henryetta, angling east-southeast into west- central Arkansas. But some guidance pushes this corridor further north. Areas near and just north of the boundary will see the best severe weather potential. CAMs are in surprisingly good agreement on what will happen even if they aren't sure where it will happen, which is multiple discrete right moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, but very large hail in particular. As typically occurs, these cells will favor congealing into an MCS over time, with more of a wind and rain threat later on.

Sunday will feature a very unstable and sheared atmosphere with the dry line west of the area and warm sector overhead. The question will be convective initiation. If storms can get going, the atmosphere will support the potential for significant severe weather. But as of now, some models show storm activity and some do not. Those that do show it being most likely near the OK-KS-MO triple point, and propagating south to southeast from there. This will need to be watched closely, but ultimately likely depends on what happens on Saturday. Monday will be warm with just a slight chance of a few showers or storms before the cold front moves through. The best chance of precipitation will be the higher terrain in the eastern half of the forecast area.

Behind the front there will be a temporary reprieve from storm activity, but rain chances will return to portions of the area by Tuesday afternoon (mostly the southeast half of the forecast area). Slight chances of showers and storms continue into Wednesday and beyond. High temperatures will fall into the 70s beyond the front with lows in the 50s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A remnant outflow boundary is in the vicinity of KMLC while a weak front sinks south across eastern OK but is getting hung up in the terrain of northwest AR. The outflow is likely to be a focus for convection through the afternoon and possibly (~30%) chance into the evening. Have limited mention of thunder to KMLC and KFSM with a low (<20%) chance showers get as far north as KFYV. Otherwise, lingering post- frontal stratus is expected to scatter out after 21Z. A moist boundary layer and ground from last night's rain is likely to contribute to another round of stratus overnight with some fog also developing. For now have place IFR conditions where highest confidence resides. While all sites could see MVFR/IFR flight conditions at some time Saturday morning there is enough spread in guidance to delay trying to lock in timing and location. Winds will be northerly behind the front through the evening then veer more easterly overnight before going light/variable in spots, aiding in fog development.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 56 79 62 81 / 0 50 70 30 FSM 60 82 63 83 / 40 40 80 30 MLC 59 83 63 83 / 30 60 70 20 BVO 53 78 58 80 / 0 50 50 40 FYV 54 81 59 79 / 30 30 70 40 BYV 55 76 59 76 / 30 10 50 40 MKO 56 78 61 80 / 20 50 70 30 MIO 54 78 58 77 / 10 20 50 50 F10 57 80 61 81 / 20 60 70 20 HHW 61 84 63 82 / 30 30 70 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.