textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Warm and breezy weather expected today; limited fire weather potential, especially for northeast Oklahoma.

- Another storm system will bring a renewed threat of severe weather and heavy rain to the area Tuesday-Wednesday.

- A light freeze may occur for a few areas in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Any lingering showers across southeast OK and west-central AR will end early this afternoon with dry conditions expected for the rest of the day. A dry line will set up across northeast OK, with the warmest weather near and to the west of the dry line. For these areas, temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s. This is also where the windiest weather is expected. The combination of warm, relatively dry, and breezy weather will promote some limited fire weather potential this afternoon.

To the east and south of the dry line, moisture levels will be higher and temperatures a bit lower. With that said, highs will still be quite warm, rising to the upper 70s to low 80s. Clearing is also expected here, but not to the same degree as northeast OK, with some level of cloudiness persisting.

Clouds will increase again tonight as the next storm system approaches. Due to mild southerly flow persisting all night, temperatures will be very mild, with widespread 60s. Precipitation will likely hold off until after daybreak, but a few showers in far southeast OK is not totally out of the question either.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Southwest flow will continue to strengthen Tuesday as an upper level low approaches. Deep moisture will envelope the entire forecast area with the dry line to the west. CAMs and global models are mostly in agreement that showers and thunderstorms will develop along the leading edge of a jet max that will rapidly advect/expand into the area during the afternoon and evening hours.

The additional shear combined with peak daytime heating does appear to be sufficient to kick of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Forecast soundings continue to support the risk of severe weather given ample lift, shear, and instability. With that said, there will probably be storms that fire along the dry line well to the west of the area during the afternoon. These will move east into the forecast area during the later afternoon and evening. There seems to be a better consensus for storms to morph into a line across southeast OK, which will then move into northwest AR. For northeast OK coverage looks lower, with storms perhaps a little more isolated. Either way, all severe hazards are possible, but hail and wind appear to be relatively favored. Corridors of heavy rainfall are expected, especially southeast OK into northwest AR, where locally a few inches could fall under stronger storms.

Precipitation will move out of the area Wednesday as a cold front pushes through, ending the rain threat for the time. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning will be cool, with the typical cold spots approaching freezing Thursday morning. Warmer and dry weather will then resume into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Patchy low clouds currently remain across far NW AR otherwise VFR conditions likely prevail into the overnight hours. Thereafter expect low clouds to expand northward with MVFR ceilings across much of SE OK and NW AR which prevail through much of Tuesday. Lower confidence that low clouds move into NE OK. Gusty winds continue at times overnight and increase again during the day Tuesday. Scattered showers likely by afternoon with thickening mid cloud with thunderstorm chances increasing by late afternoon especially for southern areas. Higher storm chances just beyond this forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 66 83 56 66 / 0 40 80 60 FSM 64 82 63 72 / 10 50 90 90 MLC 66 80 60 71 / 10 50 100 70 BVO 61 84 51 64 / 0 40 80 50 FYV 63 79 56 68 / 10 40 100 90 BYV 65 79 57 66 / 0 30 90 100 MKO 66 80 57 68 / 0 40 90 80 MIO 64 81 54 63 / 0 40 90 80 F10 66 80 56 69 / 0 50 90 60 HHW 65 78 62 71 / 10 60 90 70

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.