textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Lower shower and storm chances through this afternoon.

- Unsettled pattern and plentiful moisture return to maintain daily shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday through the weekend and into early next week. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns.

- Organized severe storms are not anticipated, but an occasional strong and/or marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out almost each day.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A few showers linger across parts of northeast OK from activity that occurred last night due to a remnant MCV. The remnant MCV continues to retrograde westward early this afternoon. A few showers and storms may form in its vicinity this afternoon, mainly focused along and west of Highway 75 in OK. Not anticipating anything severe or anything like the flooding seen yesterday evening/night at this time, but isolated heavy rainfall may briefly develop if storms initiate before sunset this evening.

Mid-level ridging will drift southeastward from the Midwest Region and over the southeast CONUS late this afternoon and into this evening. Despite this, ridging will still have a big influence over the area this evening and overnight tonight, with mostly dry and tranquil weather forecast. Expect overnight low temperatures a few degrees above average, generally mid-upper 60s, underneath partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low-level moisture will increase from south to north as a shortwave trough begins to move over the Plains overnight tonight and into Thursday morning.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A series of upper-level waves will impact the area beginning Thursday and cause daily precipitation chances through the weekend and likely into early next week. First shortwave trough will pinch off its parent upper-level low centered over northwest Mexico and will move across the Central Plains during the daytime Thursday; eastern OK and northwest AR will remain on its southern periphery. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop through the daytime as the wave slowly passes to the north and east of the area by Thursday night. The flow aloft stays weak, so severe thunderstorms are not a concern, but moderate to heavy rainfall will likely occur at times increasing flooding concerns.

After a lull in activity late Thursday night into Friday morning, the upper-level low over Mexico will slowly start lifting northeastward towards west TX on Friday. As this occurs, it will send another lobe of vorticity downstream and into the area, causing additional showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and evening. Flooding/flash flooding will be the main concern Friday as flow aloft stays weak and keeps the severe potential low. As the upper-level low moves closer to the area late in the week and into the upcoming weekend, precipitation chances will further increase, with wider coverage and more heavier precipitation moments. Latest model and ensemble data suggest the heaviest rain and rainfall amounts will occur between Saturday night and Monday night as the potent upper low moves over western OK and eventually over KS. The flow aloft will become slightly more favorable for at least marginally severe storms Sunday and into Monday, but still think that heavy rain and flooding will be the main concerns through the weekend and early next week. More details to come. Beyond Monday, global models diverge with their solutions. The 12z GFS builds in a stout ridge and would likely keep precipitation low or very low through Wednesday. Meanwhile the ECMWF maintains a very wavy pattern across OK and AR through Wednesday before building in a ridge.

A plethora of cloud cover and rain will keep both daytime high temperatures and overnight lows very similar each day/night through the upcoming weekend. Most days will see high temperatures generally in the low-mid 80s and lows generally in the upper 60s or lower 70s. As the ridge builds Tuesday into Wednesday, temperatures will further rise.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions are likely overnight into mid morning with a low coverage of any showers and storms. Low clouds w/ MVFR ceilings may spread into SE OK by early morning but confidence is low in how widespread and prolonged the lower ceilings would be. Otherwise a widespread Cu field w/ low VFR ceilings is expected with increase shower and thunderstorm coverage Thursday afternoon especially across SE OK into western AR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 68 85 70 85 / 0 20 10 20 FSM 68 84 69 87 / 0 50 20 40 MLC 69 85 70 86 / 10 40 10 30 BVO 65 85 68 85 / 0 20 10 20 FYV 66 82 68 84 / 0 40 10 30 BYV 62 81 66 83 / 0 30 10 40 MKO 67 83 68 84 / 0 40 20 30 MIO 65 85 68 85 / 0 20 10 20 F10 66 84 68 84 / 0 20 10 20 HHW 70 82 69 83 / 10 60 30 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.