textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected through the week with a Heat Advisory for portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Thursday.

- Low to medium rain chances return to the northern half of the area through Friday night, with the best chance late Thursday into Friday morning.

- Drier conditions expected this weekend into next week with dangerous heat remaining a concern for the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

A dry and seasonably warm overnight remains expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with a quasi-stationary boundary stretched across southeast Kansas and all evening thunderstorm development along and north of it. This should remain the case until possibly around daybreak, with a very low chance of drifting southward into northeast Oklahoma as it diminishes. The main story for Thursday, of course, is the continued dangerous heat. Conditions on Thursday look to be similar to today, with widespread heat index values from 105 to 108. Given what happened today and what is in the updated gridded forecast, the existing advisory will be expanded northward to the Kansas border in addition to adding Cherokee County. Isolated afternoon thunderstorm development remains most likely across areas along and north of Highway 412, with the environment supporting a low chance of severe storms and primarily a locally damaging wind threat.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Although isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across northeast Oklahoma Thursday evening, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms during the entire forecast period remains Thursday night and into early Friday, as a disturbance moves through the region. The southward extent of the highest storm chances during this period remains somewhat in question, with the area along and north of I-40 favored. A low severe weather chance will continue into Thursday night, with perhaps a slightly higher potential for large hail compared to the afternoon, much like has been observed in Kansas with the current activity. The focus for afternoon thunderstorms during the day Friday currently looks to be south of I-40 east-northeastward into parts of northwest Arkansas, although confidence in this is more on the medium side. The NBM POPs for Friday afternoon have been retooled some with this idea in mind, keeping lower POPs to the north across northeast Oklahoma given the confidence. Temperatures on Friday and the potential for another round of dangerous heat will hinge on any residual cloud cover and lingering showers/storms through the day. The new NBM guidance increased afternoon temperatures from its earlier offerings, and these values have been adjusted downward slightly using the short-term blended guidance. Even using this, most areas still have forecast highs a couple of degrees above normal. Into Friday night and possibly Saturday, there is an increasing signal for another disturbance to move through far northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Once again, the NBM POPs have been retooled Friday night to increase values mainly along and east of the Oklahoma/Arkansas state line. It is possible that these increased POPs may need to be extended into Saturday on future shifts, but for this forecast, settled on raising them to just below mentionable Saturday morning. Thereafter, the much advertised return to dry conditions and dangerous heat remains on track for the rest of the weekend and into next week. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed during this period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue for much of the forecast period. Storms ongoing across central KS may spread southward into the morning but are expected to weaken before impacting northern terminal sites. Additional storms are likely to develop by late afternoon or early evening along the weak sfc boundary which will be in or near NE OK to NW AR. Coverage of storms during this time frame is more uncertain and a low mention will be included to reflect the potential.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 100 78 98 76 / 20 40 30 10 FSM 100 77 99 76 / 0 10 20 20 MLC 100 77 98 75 / 0 0 20 10 BVO 99 72 97 71 / 20 50 40 10 FYV 97 73 94 72 / 0 30 30 30 BYV 96 73 93 71 / 10 30 40 30 MKO 100 75 98 73 / 0 20 20 20 MIO 98 73 93 71 / 20 60 30 20 F10 101 76 99 74 / 10 20 20 20 HHW 99 76 97 75 / 0 0 20 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062-064>068-070-071-073-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.