textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms today and Sunday. Any stronger storms will be capable of locally gusty winds and heavy downpours.

- A trend toward drier and hotter conditions will continue through early next week. Heat indices will reach 105-115 F for many areas Monday and Tuesday with heat headlines likely.

- Uncertainty increases for influence of weak cold front Wednesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Regional morning soundings sampled similar conditions compared to recent days with an uncapped deep moist profile. Expect isolated to scattered storms again this afternoon with the zone of deeper mid level moisture extending across the forecast area a potential development corridor. Short term guidance has varied considerably in overall coverage through early evening so confidence is low for any specific location. Expect locally gusty winds with any stronger storms that can develop. And in following near persistent trends the forecast will retain low chance of precip late tonight for potential elevated convection by early morning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The overall trend of warmer and drier remains the forecast with any storm coverage likely more isolated by Sunday afternoon. Dewpoint trends will become the more uncertain forecast element regarding excessive heat conditions. It still appears likely that heat advisories will be needed for portions of the area possibly by Sunday and more likely by Monday.

Sfc winds gradually veer both Monday and Tuesday afternoon becoming west of south for most the area with the pre frontal thermal axis aligned across the region by Tuesday afternoon. Both days hold potential for triple digit heat for portions of the forecast area, and pending dewpoint trends, excessive heat warnings may be needed by Tuesday afternoon.

The weak cold front remains in the forecast to arrive Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The frontal zone is likely to become oriented NW to SE in or near the forecast area on the periphery of the upper level ridge. Any sustained cooling associated with the front will largely depend on any more widespread precip developing within the frontal corridor as the post frontal airmass will be lacking for a robust airmass change. There remains considerable uncertainty in these details for the mid to late week forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue across northeast OK until just after sundown, bringing gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and lightning. Overnight conditions are expected to be mostly dry, though there is some signal for a few very isolated showers and storms, mainly near the OK-KS border, and below mentionable criteria for the TAFs. FEW- SCT clouds in the 4-6 kft layer are expected to continue through the forecast period with some additional midlevel clouds. Southerly winds will maintain through the period, weaker during the overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 76 97 79 98 / 20 20 0 0 FSM 76 97 77 99 / 20 20 0 0 MLC 75 95 77 97 / 20 20 0 0 BVO 74 96 76 98 / 20 20 0 0 FYV 73 93 74 94 / 20 20 0 0 BYV 72 93 74 94 / 20 20 0 10 MKO 74 94 76 97 / 20 20 0 0 MIO 73 95 76 97 / 20 20 10 0 F10 73 94 75 97 / 20 20 0 0 HHW 75 93 75 97 / 10 20 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.