textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1159 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 - Areas of fog likely tonight into Sunday morning; medium to high chance of some dense fog.

- Increasing rain chances again Sunday night into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary concern.

- After Monday, near or below normal temperatures and dry conditions forecast through the holiday week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1159 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

It feels a lot more like fall today. Thick stratus clouds that formed behind a passing cold front yesterday remain locked in over much of the forecast area late this morning. As such, temperatures have been slow to warm and currently vary from north to south...upper 40s to upper 50s, respectively. Did lower high temperatures a few degrees for this afternoon, given latest trends in observations and model guidance.

Winds will become light and variable this afternoon into this evening as surface high pressure settles in over eastern OK and western AR. The stratus clouds should slowly begin to break apart from west to east this afternoon and this evening, perhaps lingering across higher terrain locations in southeast OK and far northwest AR. With the combination of light winds, mostly clear skies, and a saturated ground from recent rains, fog looks prevalent for much of the area tonight. Latest guidance from HREF, SREF, CONSShort, and NBM have moderate-high probabilities of dense fog overnight and suggest fog begins to develop around or just after midnight, densest fog occurring south and east of I-44 closer to sunrise Sunday. If trends continue, a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed for at least eastern portions of the forecast area tonight. Overnight lows will cool down into the low-mid 40s tonight.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 1159 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

More mild and benign weather will occur on Sunday as southerly surface winds return and mid-level ridging builds overhead. The ridge axis shifts east of the area in the afternoon and southwesterly winds aloft develop ahead of the next upper-level low that will be drifting over the Four Corners region. The southerly winds will draw in low-level moisture Sunday into Sunday night. As the upper-level low moves off the Rockies and over the Plains Sunday evening, widespread moderate to heavy rain, with scattered embedded thunderstorms, ahead of the low will spread eastward from central OK into eastern OK and eventually into western AR late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will persist through Monday morning as the upper-level low continues to lift northeastward across the Central Plains. Lift and divergence aloft will peak Monday morning and into the afternoon due to fairly strong 300mb jet (100+ knots) moving overhead. This will cause a sharp increase in deep layer shear as well. The threat of severe thunderstorms will increase, mainly for areas along and south of I-40 by the afternoon as MUCAPE increases between 500-1000 J/kg. With virtually all surface-based instability remaining south of the Red River, and a deeply saturated environmental profile, the main hazards with any severe storm will likely be damaging wind gusts. However, flooding and flash flooding should be the main focus through Monday evening. PWATs increase between 1.0 and 1.5 inches (90th+ percentile) by early Monday morning. Consensus in models and ensembles show rainfall totals from Sunday night through Monday evening will likely vary from northwest to southeast, highest amounts falling across southeast OK and northwest AR. In general, rainfall amounts between 1-2 inches will be common, with locally higher amounts in a few spots, especially across southeast OK and west-central AR.

Much drier and cooler weather will transpire beginning Tuesday as the upper-level low and trough axis shift east of the area and a cold front pushes through in the morning on Tuesday. Temperatures will drop below seasonal average Wednesday and on Thanksgiving Day, (highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s) and return to near average by Friday and Saturday (highs in the mid-upper 50s and lows in upper 30s and lower 40s). Next rain chance will come next Saturday ahead of the next upper-level system.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Low stratus deck remains largely entrenched across the local terminals and confidence remains low that its evolution is handled well within short term guidance. The forecast will trend largely toward persistence with is MVFR to IFR ceilings which lower into IFR to LIFR conditions overnight. The northwestern periphery of the cloud shield could see a larger area of fog develop overnight should clearing be realized. The forecast will also trend toward a longer duration of flight impacts into the day Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 42 64 52 61 / 0 0 70 70 FSM 46 68 51 61 / 0 0 70 90 MLC 43 68 52 64 / 0 0 90 90 BVO 37 64 47 61 / 0 0 60 70 FYV 42 67 49 61 / 0 0 60 90 BYV 43 66 47 58 / 0 0 40 90 MKO 43 65 52 61 / 0 0 80 80 MIO 41 64 49 60 / 0 0 60 80 F10 41 65 51 62 / 0 0 90 70 HHW 44 66 52 64 / 0 0 80 100

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.