textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Light rain, drizzle, and patchy fog lingers into tonight for portions of the forecast area, especially north of I-40.

- Strong and dry cold front on Tuesday afternoon will drop temperatures slightly below average through the rest of the week.

- Cooler and wetter weather pattern arrives Friday night and into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Most of the moderate to heavy rain has now shifted south and east of the forecast area. Total rainfall amounts over the past 12-24 hours vary, especially from north to south. Highest amounts fell across far southeast OK, near the Red River, generally 1 to 2 inches (locally higher amounts). Meanwhile, locations near the OK/KS and MO/AR borders received the least amount of rain, generally a tenth to a quarter of an inch. GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows the center of the upper low over southwest KS and a pronounced mid-level dry slot beginning to make its way into eastern OK. The upper-level low opens up as a wave and will slide across the OK/KS border this afternoon and push east of the area tonight. Light rain showers and/or drizzle remain possible near the center of the wave and on its backside this afternoon and into tonight, but QPF amounts will stay light.

Lingering light rain and drizzle are expected to persist across far northeast OK and far northwest AR late tonight and into the overnight hours as the upper-level trough begins to exit the area. Surface low pressure will slide east of the area late tonight and drags a weak cold front through the morning Tuesday. Skies will remain mostly cloudy to overcast through the night. Despite the weak frontal boundary moving through overnight, temperatures will stay mild and bottom out in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A potent shortwave trough will dive south over the Northern Plains and towards the Great Lakes region during the daytime Tuesday, helping force a strong and dry cold front through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. Winds will become gusty behind the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, with frequent northwest gusts 20 to 30 mph through Tuesday night. Temperatures drop below average by Tuesday night, with a light freeze possible along the OK/KS and MO/AR borders. After an unseasonably dry and cool day Wednesday, a more widespread light freeze will occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Otherwise, dry and benign weather will persist, with slightly below average temperatures, through the remainder of the week.

By late in the week and into next weekend, surface high pressure moves off to the east and southerly winds return. Simultaneously, the next trough will move onshore the West Coast and rapidly intensify over the West CONUS. Consensus in models show widespread rain and perhaps thunderstorms developing ahead of the approaching system Friday night into Saturday. However, beyond Saturday, forecast confidence remains highly uncertain with several discrepancies in model solutions. But it is worth noting that recent trends continue to show an unsettled, wet and chilly, weather pattern persisting into early next week.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities in drizzle and fog will become IFR/LIFR overnight most sites. These conditions expected to persist through late Tuesday morning, with improving conditions ern OK sites Tuesday afternoon as cold front pushes into the area. Some improvement also expected nwrn AR sites Tuesday afternoon, but ceilings likely improve only to MVFR through the end of this forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 51 64 34 50 / 30 0 0 0 FSM 52 65 39 52 / 40 0 0 0 MLC 49 66 37 52 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 46 63 30 49 / 40 0 0 0 FYV 50 62 32 47 / 40 0 0 0 BYV 52 62 33 46 / 50 0 0 0 MKO 52 64 35 50 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 51 62 32 47 / 50 0 0 0 F10 49 65 34 51 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 48 65 39 54 / 20 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.