textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 538 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Cooler this afternoon and evening with rain showers ending, then a return to warm, dry, and breezy conditions through Monday.

- Another storm system will bring a renewed threat of severe weather and heavy rain to the area Tuesday-Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Clouds and lingering showers (mainly southeast OK and west-central AR) will continue to thin out into the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. As skies clear tonight and winds become nearly calm, temperatures will cool efficiently. Lows will reach the 30s for most areas, with some frost possible in the coolest spots. A few patches of fog may occur, particularly in areas that saw more rainfall with the last system.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

As a surface high moves to the south, southerly flow will resume Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will quickly warm, with 70s expected Sunday and 80s for many areas Tuesday. Initially slower moisture return may allow for some local fire weather concerns, but most areas saw sufficient rainfall yesterday to limit this potential. A weak and transient upper level feature may kick off a few showers Monday across southeast OK where moisture profiles will remain better, but accumulation will most likely be minimal.

The next storm system will affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday. An upper level low will approach from the west on Tuesday with increasing upper level shear and diffluence. Meanwhile, the low level jet will also enhance low level warm advection as well as moisture advection. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that an unstable and sheared environment will be present along with plenty of lift, with widespread storm activity developing. Thunderstorms, including some severe, are expected to develop. High moisture content will also support heavy rain and potential flash flooding.

The cold front will move through Wednesday morning, with precipitation winding down after its passage. Temperatures will briefly cool closer to normal. Much warmer conditions will then redevelop for the latter half of the week with essentially no chance of rain.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MVFR ceilings remain across SE OK into NW AR and will persist into the evening. Clearing skies are expected overnight and conditions appear favorable to at least patchy fog which could be locally dense at times. Guidance varies on overall coverage and duration of impacts and forecast will retain a mention of light fog at most terminals. VFR conditions and southerly winds for much of Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 37 73 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 40 74 52 82 / 20 0 0 30 MLC 38 74 54 83 / 10 0 10 20 BVO 31 73 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 33 71 50 80 / 10 0 0 20 BYV 36 70 51 77 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 36 71 50 81 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 35 70 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 F10 37 73 51 83 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 42 73 54 76 / 30 0 20 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.