textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1040 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- High shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday into Tuesday, with potential for severe weather and locally heavy rain.

- Temperatures closer to seasonal average mid to late week behind early week system.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1031 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A warm and cloudy evening is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, which is expected to continue into early Monday morning. The generally low impact weather will become decidedly more active after daybreak Monday, however, with the expectation of increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms across mainly northeast Oklahoma through the afternoon. The storm system of interest is centered west of the Four Corners in the southwestern United States late this evening, with thunderstorms developing well ahead of the upper low in parts of eastern New Mexico. This activity is expected to increase in coverage and shift eastward overnight, eventually reaching parts of northeast Oklahoma west of Highway 75 after daybreak, albeit in a declining phase. Around midday into the early afternoon hours, additional development remains advertised by multiple models in response to increasing mid level flow across the area ahead of the main system, expected to be located in northeast New Mexico/southeast Colorado by this time. Northeast Oklahoma remains most likely to see this early to mid afternoon development, the coverage of which will be a pivotal player in how the severe thunderstorm threat unfolds during the evening and overnight. The afternoon storms will have a lesser chance to be strong to severe than with the later storms, although that chance is non-zero. The expectation is for the coverage and intensity of these storms to wane somewhat as they move eastward into late afternoon.

In addition to the afternoon storm threats, a potent low level jet will position itself over the area during the day, leading to strong and gusty southerly winds. Current thinking is the cloudiness will limit the overall mixing potential, with these winds not likely to be fully realized at the surface. A few spots may see a 40+ mph gust or two, but with this expected to be isolated and brief in nature, a Wind Advisory will not be issued at this time.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1031 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The main band of thunderstorms associated with the aforementioned storm system will likely develop just west of the area late afternoon into early evening, sweeping eastward into early Tuesday morning. These storms have a higher likelihood of being severe, with wind fields and a linear storm mode supportive of mainly damaging wind and leading edge tornado threats. The overall severity as mentioned above is contingent on how much the afternoon storms impact the environment across northeast and east central Oklahoma. With an increasing low level jet and corresponding uptick in low level helicity values late evening into early Tuesday morning across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, the overall threat for leading edge tornadoes may increase after dark. Keeping up with the latest forecast expectations into the evening and also having multiple ways to receive warning information, including ways designed to wake you up, are both recommended actions for those that may be impacted by these storms overnight. The storms should exit the western Arkansas counties by mid to late morning Tuesday.

Regarding the heavy rain and flooding potential, forecast precipitable water values remain near seasonal maxes, supporting efficient rainfall. However, this is likely to be offset by faster storm movements given the wind fields. Parts of northeast Oklahoma that see multiple rounds of thunderstorms from Monday afternoon through Monday night will have the highest likelihood of seeing localized flooding impacts.

The cold front associated with the system will begin to move through early Tuesday morning, clearing the area to the east by Tuesday afternoon. Cooler and drier conditions should prevail Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Another fast moving storm system will move through the area Thursday, with low rain chances making a brief return to parts of northeast Oklahoma during the day. Overall, both high and low temperatures from the middle of this week into the next weekend should remain near seasonal normals, with low impact weather expected.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds remain common overnight for the CWA. During the night/early Monday morning, MVFR ceilings spread back over northwest Arkansas and look to continue into the afternoon hours. A period of MVFR ceilings also is forecast for northeast Oklahoma TAF sites during the morning hours Monday. Monday afternoon and evening, scattered to broken low and mid clouds are anticipated as a low pressure and cold front move into the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances develop late morning/early afternoon in northeast Oklahoma and become more likely late afternoon and evening for eastern Oklahoma. Storm chances look to near northwest Arkansas TAF sites near the end of the TAF period. Will continue with VCTS and Prob30 groups for timing of greater storm potential. Winds through the period start out east to southeast and become gusty out of the south during the day Monday into Monday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 63 79 58 69 / 0 60 90 10 FSM 62 80 66 73 / 0 10 90 80 MLC 63 83 62 70 / 0 10 90 10 BVO 60 76 56 67 / 0 80 90 10 FYV 58 75 61 70 / 10 10 90 70 BYV 60 74 64 72 / 0 10 80 80 MKO 62 81 61 70 / 0 10 90 20 MIO 61 78 61 69 / 0 30 90 40 F10 62 81 59 69 / 0 40 90 10 HHW 62 84 65 73 / 0 0 90 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.