textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Warming trend this weekend with unseasonably warm temperatures and gusty south winds expected Sunday into early next week. This will raise fire weather concerns once again.

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances mid to late week, with periods of heavy rain potential and possibly, severe weather.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Warmer temperatures, a continued decrease in cloud cover and veering of surface winds all remain expected this afternoon, as surface high pressure shifts to the south and east today. East to southeast winds are currently gusting 20 to 25 mph at times, and along with already low relative humidities, locally elevated fire weather concerns will focus across portions of northeast Oklahoma.

Warmer conditions will extend into the overnight period, with lows 10 to 15 degrees warmer than last night in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Increasing low level moisture will lead to an increase in cloud cover as well.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Fire weather concerns will again be the focus of the forecast for mainly Sunday and Monday, before the overall weather pattern becomes more favorable for much needed rainfall and potential for thunderstorms.

South to southwest winds will markedly increase Sunday as low pressure deepens to the west. Above normal temperatures will return areawide, aided by decreasing cloud cover from Saturday night/Sunday morning. The south winds will lead to an increase in dew points that will keep afternoon relative humidities above typically concerning thresholds. Nevertheless, with plenty of area that have not experienced greenup in portions of northeast Oklahoma, increasing fire weather concerns will accompany the warm and windy conditions Sunday, despite the humidities. Monday will likely feature the most concerning fire weather combination, with near record afternoon highs, relative humidities locally in the upper 20 percents, and slightly stronger wind speeds and gusts.

Turning to Tuesday, a strong cold front is set to move through the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. An increase in deep layer moisture ahead of the front will favor higher chances for shower and thunderstorm development along it than we have seen of late. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue to expand across the region Tuesday night, continuing into early Wednesday before tapering off some. Temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on the timing of the front and cloud cover associated with it. Forecast highs have been decreased slightly from the NBM initialization given the higher chance for a frontal arrival mid to late afternoon in northeast Oklahoma and expanding precip/cloud cover in response. Wednesday will be chilly behind the front.

Additional opportunities for rainfall will occur into the next weekend, with another fast moving system Wednesday night into Thursday and development of high amplitude troughing in the west leading to southwest flow aloft by Friday night/Saturday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period though lower than usual confidence in periods of VFR ceilings (~5kft) beginning at 00Z for eastern OK sites and new development after daybreak impacting mainly northwest AR locations. More certain with gusty south winds returning late Sunday morning through the afternoon with gusts around 25 kt common after 18Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 50 80 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 45 79 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 50 79 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 45 80 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 44 74 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 44 74 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 48 78 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 46 76 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 F10 49 79 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 48 79 59 82 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.