textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Scattered showers and storms gradually wind down into Thursday morning.

- Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues through Friday.

- Additional thunderstorm chances, some potentially severe, are expected Friday into early Saturday with a cold front. Cooler and drier weather is anticipated early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The severe weather that impacted the area this evening should wind down the next few hours. With that said, a few more isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms could continue to develop across portions of northeast OK into northwest Arkansas until daybreak before it totally wraps up, riding along a convergent boundary. Low clouds are expected to redevelop around daybreak, lasting into late morning before clearing. Highs will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Several CAMs show some isolated storms popping up in the late afternoon or evening, though they disagree on timing, location, and intensity. Without proper forcing this is probably a less favored outcome, but wanted at least a mention of storms as it is possible. If a storm did get going it could become marginally severe. Otherwise, breezy southerly winds will persist through the period with some gustiness in the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Warm, humid, and breezy conditions will remain in place Friday as the next storm system approaches the region. The large scale set up is that a fairly deep trough will be moving from the western USA towards the Plains. Meanwhile, a semi cut off low beneath the trough will be moving in tandem towards the area. The southerly cut off low will induce a subtropical jet along with plenty of warm and moist advection. It will begin to merge more completely with the northerly trough, with a very potent upper level jet forming. This jet will be just northeast of the area by Friday evening with strong divergence aloft in addition to the unusually elevated wind speeds. Meanwhile, a cold front will be barreling into the area at the surface. Ahead of the front, the low level jet will invigorate with its own anomalously strong winds. The result will be a hodograph that is both strongly curved in the lower levels and then very elongated in the upper levels. This will occur with PWAT near 1.5" and MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/Kg.

It is sufficient to say that the ingredients will be in place for severe weather to develop Friday afternoon into early Saturday. Early CAM guidance shows two windows to watch. A few supercells may develop along the dry line ahead of the cold front. These would have the higher potential to be more significantly severe with all severe hazard types. Then, a more consolidated line will form along the cold front. This is when severe wind would be more likely along with more widespread heavy rain. SPC and AI model guidance all pretty much agree on the elevated severe weather potential. Hopefully as more CAMs come into range in the next day some additional details can be pinned down.

Behind the cold front it looks much cooler and drier for later Saturday into early next week. Highs will fall into the 60s and 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s. The next chance of storms may be next Tuesday or so, but this is low confidence at this time. Highs could return to the 80s by Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible for all terminals the next few hours, with the densest coverage shifting from northeast OK towards northwest AR and southeast OK around 01-02Z. The impacts will include lightning, heavy rain, hail, gusty winds, lowered visibility to 1-2 SM, and brief ceilings of 2-3 kft. Storms will wind down overnight. A few additional storms could develop Thursday but were not included in the TAFs at this time due to low confidence in coverage and location. Gusty southerly winds will weaken a bit overnight but remain southerly, returning again during the day Thursday. Low ceilings will redevelop for all areas Thursday morning, most likely breaking up in the late morning or early afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 62 83 68 / MMM 80 20 20 FSM 79 63 83 66 / MMM 80 20 20 MLC 77 65 84 68 / MMM 80 10 10 BVO 81 57 83 65 / MMM 80 0 20 FYV 76 60 80 65 / MMM 90 20 20 BYV 77 60 80 65 / MMM 90 30 20 MKO 78 61 82 66 / MMM 80 20 20 MIO 77 60 80 66 / MMM 80 10 20 F10 79 62 84 67 / MMM 80 20 20 HHW 79 64 82 65 / MMM 90 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.