textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1134 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

- Higher grassland fire weather conditions develop most afternoons in the next week, but especially for this afternoon.

- Dry and mild conditions continue into the weekend. Much above normal temperatures likely next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1050 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Strong zonal flow is present across the CONUS with above normal heights and temperatures across the southern Plains. A steep pressure gradient is promoting strengthening southerly flow today, with breezy winds expected by the afternoon hours. The mild, dry, and breezy weather will promote some fire weather potential this afternoon, with highs in the 50s. Winds will remain elevated tonight with lows mainly in the 40s under mostly clear skies.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1050 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Saturday will start warm given ongoing southerly winds, with temperatures quickly climbing into the mid 60s. A dry cold front will then move through during the afternoon and evening hours, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures into Sunday, but still above normal for this time of year. Low clouds Sunday across southeast OK may keep temperatures down, so lowered below NBM guidance by a few degrees.

Heading into next week an anomalous area of high pressure will envelope much of the country, focused on the southern Plains. Mild and humid (for this time of year) southerly flow will quickly increase temperature and moisture levels. After reaching the 60s Monday, widespread 70s to perhaps even low 80s are excepted Tuesday through Friday. These are truly exceptional temperatures for this time of year, upwards of 30 degrees above normal. Multiple temperature records, both for record highs and record high lows (warmest low on record for a day), are in jeopardy. Ensemble guidance by many metrics show temperatures throughout the atmosphere will be near or above climatological maxes for this time of year. Any way you slice it, a very unusual pattern. The most anomalous readings will be focused across eastern OK, some low clouds at times across southeast OK and northwest AR may keep temperatures down a few degrees from their potential. Warm temperatures may persist beyond the day 7 forecast, but ensemble guidance continues to hint at a cool down with a chance of rain towards next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail with periodic high level ceilings. Winds will increase and become gusty by mid afternoon to early evening and likely remain gusty through the overnight hours into early Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 57 44 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 57 40 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 59 46 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 55 40 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 54 42 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 52 41 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 57 44 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 52 43 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 F10 59 46 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 57 43 69 47 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.