textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 516 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Well above normal temperatures today (Tuesday) and Wednesday.

- Unsettled pattern begins Wednesday with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday evening through Thursday night. A few stronger storms possible Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

- Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normal this weekend and into early next week.

- Increasing rain chances again early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A weak cold front currently moving through eastern Oklahoma will continue to sag southward through the afternoon hours before stalling near the Red River this evening. A shift to northwesterly winds will usher in a somewhat drier airmass and slightly cooler temperatures tonight. Temperatures will remain rather warm and humid for mid November ahead of the boundary, with highs in the mid 80s along and south of I-40 this afternoon, while temps will remain in the 70s behind the boundary across northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Cooler overnight lows in the 40s(north) to mid 50s (south) will be experienced tonight with the drier air in place and a weak surface ridge axis overhead.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

An unsettled middle part of the work week is in store across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A slow moving upper low will progress eastward from Southern California and into the SOuthern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. The result will be increasing shower and thunderstorm chances beginning Wednesday afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and spreading over the whole area by Wednesday night into Thursday. Widespread rains are expected through the day Thursday, with scattered thunderstorms possible as the upper system moves closer to the region. Strong deep layer shear and modest instability noted on forecast soundings indicate that a few strong to marginally severe storms could be possible from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few stronger cells could produce some hail or strong wind gusts, especially across portions of southeast Oklahoma where a pseudo warm front looks to reside. The bigger threat still looks to be locally heavy rainfall with widespread storm totals of 1-3 inches expected, and locally higher totals possible where more thunderstorms develop. Flooding is not expected to be a real big threat as most of the area has been in a dry period for the last month, but some local flooding of small creeks and streams, or urban areas will be possible where heavier rain rates occur.

Precip starts to move out Thursday night into Friday as a cold front pushes through the region by Friday evening. This will dry things out for a few days and allow temperatures to cool back to nearer seasonal normals, though still slightly on the warm side of things. Additional rain chances return early next week as another system tracks across the Southwest CONUS and lifts over the Southern Plains through mid week. Storm chances appear to be less with this system, though locally heavy rainfall could once again be a concern as relatively high moisture content remains in the vicinity. Cloud cover and rain chances will keep afternoon temperatures near normal early next week as well, while overnight lows generally remain well above normal with the higher dewpoint airmass around.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Flight conditions will be primarily VFR through this forecast period, with the exception of a likely period of low clouds spreading north into southeast OK and perhaps west central AR after sunrise Wednesday. Also there is limited potential for fog across northwest AR, but uncertain coverage and duration due to increasing high clouds. There will be increasing probability of showers and a few thunderstorms mainly just beyond this forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 48 72 60 69 / 0 10 60 90 FSM 54 77 61 72 / 0 10 60 90 MLC 53 79 64 73 / 0 20 60 90 BVO 41 69 54 68 / 0 10 60 80 FYV 47 74 59 69 / 0 10 60 90 BYV 47 70 58 67 / 0 0 60 80 MKO 50 76 61 69 / 0 10 60 90 MIO 45 69 57 67 / 0 0 70 80 F10 49 76 61 70 / 0 20 60 90 HHW 59 80 64 72 / 0 20 60 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.