textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Grassland fire weather concerns return for Saturday afternoon.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances develop Saturday and gradually increase through Sunday.

- An unsettled weather pattern will settle in over the next week with multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1002 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

A weak upper level feature will pass through Saturday morning. There will be some instability along with a shallow moisture layer centered near 700 hPa. A few showers or even a thunderstorm is possible, but dry air beneath this layer will probably limit any surface accumulation. The probability of precipitation will increase somewhat as another subtle wave approaches during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface air will moisten, so the chance of measurable rain will increase, but overall accumulation will probably remain spotty through the evening. High temperatures will remain well above normal, mid 70s to low 80s, with a cold front entering the area from the north near the end of the short term period.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1002 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

A mid level trough axis will swing through Sunday bringing another round of showers to the area. By this point a fairly potent cold front will have sagged into the middle of the forecast area. Locations to the north will be cool, with highs in the 40s and 50s, with warmer weather persisting south of the front. With that said, models do not exactly agree on its progression, so there is uncertainty for temperature forecasts Sunday. Showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two will develop in the isentropic lift. Although the signal varies depending on the guidance, some relatively drier air may continue to cut down on potential accumulation. Most spots will see a quarter inch or less through Sunday evening.

Showers will wind down during the day Monday, with a bit of a lull expected until Tuesday afternoon. During this time, temperatures will warm quickly as southerly flow resumes. An upper level trough will have developed over the western US by Tuesday. Moist southwest flow will again overspread the area, but with much better dynamics. The pattern will essentially lock in for a few days, with fairly persistent rain and thunder chances. This may lead to corridors of locally heavy rainfall. Ensemble guidance has gradually trended southeast with the axis of heaviest rainfall, focusing it across southeast OK into northwest AR. Total rainfall in these areas may exceed an inch, with amounts closer to a quarter to a half inch more likely into northeast OK. Amounts may vary quite a bit given its a convective setup. For now, there is not a good signal for widespread severe weather, but a few low end severe storms would not be surprising.

Ensemble guidance keeps the active weather going into the end of next week and even into the weekend as another western trough digs in, keeping moist and unstable southwest flow going. As of now, the best signal for rain and thunder is across the northern part of the forecast area, but at so many days out the forecast may shift. Temperatures will mostly be near or above normal for the next week. Due to the coming rains, the fire weather concerns should diminish for the time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few high based showers will be possible at times, with the best chances being at KMLC and KFSM late this afternoon into this evening. A cold front will sag south into the area this evening and overnight resulting in a wind shift to the north.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 81 47 61 43 / 20 10 50 70 FSM 81 51 69 46 / 10 20 40 50 MLC 79 54 73 50 / 30 30 30 50 BVO 81 41 54 38 / 20 10 60 70 FYV 78 44 65 42 / 20 10 50 70 BYV 76 45 59 39 / 20 20 50 70 MKO 77 50 66 46 / 20 20 50 60 MIO 75 43 56 39 / 30 20 60 80 F10 78 51 69 46 / 30 20 40 70 HHW 77 55 78 53 / 20 20 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.