textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1137 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Areawide medium to high chances (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected, but heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible.

- Daily rain and storm chances continue through the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary concern, which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly below average over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Weakness in flow aloft will remain in place through the short- term forecast. Latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows a NW-SE oriented trough beginning to lift northward across northwest TX. At the surface, a weak stationary frontal boundary draped across SE OK caused a few showers and thunderstorm to form along it earlier this evening. Weak forcing and lack of daytime heating have since diminished precipitation chances for the night, though a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out through daybreak Wednesday. Will continue to monitor for patchy to areas of fog developing tonight, especially across NE OK and far NW AR.

The mid-level trough axis becomes more W-E oriented by sunrise Wednesday and will rotate north through the forecast area during the daytime. Likewise, the surface frontal boundary is forecast to lift north through the daytime. Hi-res models show an MCS developing and moving across TX overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning. A few showers and thunderstorms on the far north side of the MCS may drift into far SE OK before sunrise. Latest 00z runs from the HRRR and 3km NAM have an MCV-like feature/area of low pressure on the backside of the MCS lifting northward and moving into far SE OK by or around midday. Both this feature and the lifting warm front will be the main focus for afternoon convection by midday Wednesday and through the afternoon. With increasing moisture and better low/mid-level ascent anticipated, convection should be more robust compared to recent days, initially across SE OK/W-C AR and then lifting northward into NE OK and far NW AR through the afternoon and into the evening. Trends in model data show convection lingering through Wednesday evening and into the overnight hours. Flow aloft will remain weak and severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few strong and heavy (non-severe) thunderstorms will remain possible. PWATs are forecast to rise above 1.5 inches, exceeding 1.7 inches at times, by the afternoon and heavy rainfall will be the main concern with storms. Nuisance/minor flooding is likely and isolated flash flooding is possible, especially with light flow aloft. Afternoon high temperatures will vary a few degrees from north to south, generally upper 70s to lower 80s, with coolest temperature across SE OK where cloud cover should be thickest. Wednesday night lows will remain mild, generally mid- upper 60s.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

The overall weather pattern does not seem to change greatly through the remainder of the workweek and into this weekend. Organized severe weather looks unlikely, but multiple mid/upper- level waves will cause daily (and nightly) hit-and-miss-type shower and thunderstorm chances through the upcoming weekend and likely into early next week. Guidance has PWATs remaining between 1.5-2.0 inches through the long-term. With abnormally abundant moisture and weak flow aloft in place, heavy rainfall and flooding will be the biggest impacts for the area through the next few days. With plenty of discrepancies in forecast models, it remains difficult to pinpoint specific locations and times when and where rainfall will be heaviest. Flash flood potential is likely to be maximized through Friday. Forecast high temperatures stay within a few degrees of 80 through the forecast period, with Thursday and Friday relatively cooler due to increased cloud cover and precipitation. Sunday and Monday look to be the warmest days of the long-term.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms were observed across portions of E OK and NW AR this evening, with vsbys locally reduced to near 2 miles under the heavier precip. Isolated convection could linger into the early overnight hours across SE OK and W-Central AR, but overall dry conditions are likely after sunset. As has been the case over the past few nights, patchy fog development will be possible during the late overnight/early morning hours. Locations which received notable rainfall today will be more susceptible to vsby reductions, including NW AR sites. Guidance also suggests low clouds may move into portions of E OK during the early morning, perhaps leading to a period of MVFR cigs at KMLC. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase from south to north Wednesday morning and afternoon. Outside of any thunderstorm impacts, VFR conditions are expected to prevail Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 64 81 65 79 / 10 70 60 60 FSM 65 83 67 81 / 20 70 60 50 MLC 66 81 66 82 / 30 60 30 60 BVO 61 82 63 79 / 10 50 60 70 FYV 61 82 65 78 / 20 60 60 90 BYV 60 81 63 78 / 20 40 50 70 MKO 64 80 65 79 / 20 70 40 60 MIO 62 83 65 79 / 10 50 50 80 F10 64 80 64 80 / 20 70 40 50 HHW 66 78 66 82 / 40 70 40 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.