textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

-Low thunderstorm chances Friday through Sunday. Limited severe risk Sunday afternoon and evening.

- A more active weather pattern is expected as we head into next week. Severe weather potential will be on the rise, but uncertainty still exists in the details.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Storms that developed this afternoon out west have dissipated before moving into eastern OK. Much of the night should be quiet, with increasing rain/isolated storm chances toward daybreak Friday across NE OK. Southerly flow has brought higher dewpoint air into the region and much milder overnight lows will be the result.

The CAMs have been consistent in developing spotty elevated/high- based showers and isolated storms in association with a subtle upper wave currently over SW KS/OK/TX Panhandles by daybreak Friday morning. This activity will spread east through the day, and should be done for the most part by evening. Severe potential is pretty low.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The latest trends in the CAMs suggest storm coverage Friday afternoon out west along the dryline will be isolated at best with a low chance of storms affecting the forecast area. However, earlier runs did suggest that if any storms get going and move into eastern OK before dissipating Friday evening, they would have the potential to produce localized pockets of damaging winds with a heat burst type feel. Model soundings have the onion look to them. While chances of this happening are pretty low, this does bear watching.

The 00Z HRRR and 18Z RRFS show another wave, possibly convectively enhanced (MCV-like), emanating from SW OK/W North TX region moving northeast across the region during the morning and midday hours Saturday. Assuming perfect prog, an increase in elevated/high-based showers and isolated storms would be the result. This activity should move east by afternoon, with quiet weather expected through the afternoon.

The latest CAMs show dryline storm development Saturday afternoon mainly over western KS, but not south over OK/TX. By this time, mid level temps are pretty warm over this portion of the dryline. This minimizes the chance of any storm impacts Saturday evening. Storm coverage on Sunday along dryline could be higher but still pretty isolated with warm mid-level temps and the main upper trough still west. Some models have development, some do not. Any storms that can develop and move into eastern OK would pose a higher-end threat.

A strong upper trough is expected to emerge into the central Plains Monday. By Monday afternoon, a sharp dryline will lie over western OK extending to a triple point over KS where it intersects a southward-surging cold front. There will be a more pronounced increase in low level moisture east of the dryline with dewpoints climbing into the 70s. Any storms that develop near these boundaries and move into the warm sector over our region will have the potential to produce higher-end severe weather Monday afternoon into the evening.

The models today are more aggressive with the southward push of the cold front compared to yesterday. This is likely due to a change in the larger scale features. Weaker SE CONUS ridge and a more pronounced eastward push to the upper trough across the northern tier of states. Current progs have the front sliding south across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. The front would focus storms and some severe threat as it moves through. The EC is not as fast as the GFS, with storms developing on the front Tuesday afternoon over SE OK and NW AR. Either way, the bulk of the storm activity would be south of the area by Wednesday, and thus a more aggressive frontal push would reduce the heavy rainfall threat. However, all of these details are subject to change as models try to get a handle on the evolution of the upper flow pattern next week. Stay tuned.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period for all sites with mid and high clouds over the region. A strong LLJ will provide southerly LLWS areawide through the early morning hours. Isolated to scattered elevated showers are expected to develop mid morning through early afternoon. A weak thunderstorm or two will be possible as well, but probability of impacting any site was too low to mention in the TAF at this time. Sfc winds increase during the daytime hours, with gusts near 25 kts possible this afternoon, locally enhanced near any thunderstorm. Late in the period, sfc winds decrease slightly with a return of LLWS areawide. Additional light showers may move into the region Friday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 88 71 87 72 / 20 30 10 0 FSM 90 70 89 69 / 20 30 10 0 MLC 88 72 88 71 / 20 20 10 0 BVO 89 69 88 71 / 20 30 10 0 FYV 86 70 86 68 / 30 30 20 0 BYV 86 71 86 68 / 30 30 30 0 MKO 87 71 86 71 / 30 40 20 0 MIO 86 70 86 70 / 20 30 30 0 F10 88 71 87 71 / 30 30 10 0 HHW 87 70 86 71 / 10 20 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.