textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and very dry vegetation will maintain fire weather concerns through Saturday. Breezy winds Friday afternoon across NE OK will locally enhance fire spread rates.

- Showers and thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday and continue into Sunday. Strong cold front across the region Sunday will yield wide temperature ranges.

- Unsettled weather pattern next week will bring periodic rain and thunderstorm chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Sfc high pressure settles into the region tonight with clear skies and light winds allowing for patchy light fog. Winds become south to southwesterly through the day Friday with gusty conditions primarily across NE OK. Unseasonably warm temperatures will again develop and very low afternoon humidity values will combine to increase grassland fire weather concerns Friday afternoon through early evening. Widespread dense dormant vegetation remains a component to the overall higher grassland fire risk helping exacerbate fire behavior.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Low level moisture will begin to increase Friday night and especially on Saturday which will help reduce fire weather concerns. This moisture return will also mark the onset of increasing shower and thunderstorm chances primarily Saturday night into Sunday. Expectation is scattered coverage initiates within the stronger low level jet axis and solidifies into more a more focused zone in proximity to the advancing cold front favoring NE OK into NW AR on Sunday.

The cold front evolution on Sunday through Monday is uncertain and will have a marked impact on not only temperatures, but also the zone of higher perception coverage. Post frontal temperatures will be sharply colder and, when combined with rain and cloud influences, the resultant temperature gradient will be very sharp at times through Monday.

The pattern aloft will transition to a more west to southwest flow regime by Tuesday and several waves are likely to track across the region mid to late next week. The warm sector with each passing wave is likely to be more moisture rich than the recent pattern which will allow for repeated shower and thunderstorm chances for the upcoming week. Accumulated rainfall totals will help with the ongoing drought conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the forecast period. Localized light fog may again develop late tonight but duration and coverage limitations will keep any aviation impacts brief and ending soon after sunrise.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 43 78 50 80 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 44 77 46 81 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 44 78 51 81 / 0 0 10 10 BVO 37 77 44 80 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 41 75 46 78 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 42 74 49 77 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 43 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 41 74 48 77 / 0 0 0 10 F10 44 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 48 75 49 78 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.