textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- Fog is expected to develop again tonight in the valleys of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Some of this fog may be dense in spots.

- Low chance of showers and/or thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly in SE OK and W-Central AR.

- Daily rain and storm chances are expected areawide Tuesday through the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall which could lead to isolated flash flooding will be the main threat.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Sfc high pressure remains in place through the overnight hours with light to calm winds. This will likely allow temperatures to fall into the upper 50s/lower 60s tonight, with radiation fog development possible again, particularly in typical valley locations. While not expected to be as widespread as yesterday, fog may become dense in some areas and visibilities may be locally reduced to less than one mile.

During the day, an upper level low positioned over northeast Texas will begin to lift north toward the area with moisture increasing across the area from the south/southeast. This could allow for the development of a few showers and/or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening across SE OK and W-Central AR. CAMs suggest a shower or two could develop as far north as Hwy 412, but PoPs remain less than 15 percent north of I-40. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are forecast with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The aforementioned low will lift over the area fully on Tuesday with afternoon shower and storm chances occurring areawide. Meanwhile, an elongated upper level trough develops across the intermountain west and southern high plains. A shortwave will rotate into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, providing additional rain and storm chances to the CWA, becoming likely from southwest to northeast during the day. Weak troughing will remain overhead through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. This will maintain daily rain and storm chances through the extended period. PWATs will remain well above average during this time and weak mean winds will likely result in slow storm motions late week. Thus, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding potential will remain a concern. However, severe weather is generally not expected over the coming days due to weak shear values. Temperatures remain near average for much of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Fog development remains uncertain at this time, however current trends suggest some has begun to develop in a few valleys of far eastern OK. High clouds may inhibit radiational cooling to some degree and thus potential for significant fog is likely less compared to past couple of nights. Still, expect a period of MVFR vis in NW AR terminals overnight through early Monday morning. VFR conditions prevail otherwise through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 64 82 64 81 / 0 20 10 80 FSM 65 83 66 84 / 10 40 10 90 MLC 64 84 66 81 / 10 20 30 100 BVO 59 82 61 82 / 0 20 10 70 FYV 62 80 64 83 / 10 60 10 70 BYV 60 78 62 83 / 0 50 10 60 MKO 63 81 64 81 / 10 30 10 90 MIO 61 81 63 83 / 0 40 10 60 F10 62 82 64 80 / 10 20 20 90 HHW 65 82 66 79 / 10 20 50 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.