textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1125 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026 - Well above average temperatures, periodic breezy winds, and low relative humidities promote limited fire weather concerns Thursday into this weekend.

- Low chance of rain late tonight into Thursday across far NE OK and NW AR. Any rainfall will remain light. Additional rain chances arrive late this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Moisture will continue to advect into the region today ahead of an approaching shortwave and associated frontal boundary. This will keep fire weather concerns low today despite continued very warm temperatures in the low-mid 70s. The aforementioned wave will pass through the region overnight, potentially producing some light rain across portions of NE OK and NW AR. Most locations will probably remain dry and anywhere that does receive rain likely wont get much... perhaps a few hundredths of an inch. Similar to last night, overnight temps will remain mild in the 40s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Any lingering showers will depart Thursday morning as drier and slightly cooler air filters into the area behind the front. Fire weather concerns will begin to increase again Thursday afternoon given the drier airmass and dense dry fuels, but lighter north winds (10-15 mph) should help keep the threat limited overall. Low temperatures fall back to near average Thursday night with mostly clear skies and light winds.

As sfc high pressure moves off to the southeast, winds will increase out of the SSW Friday afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph across NE OK/NW AR. This will promote another day of at least limited fire weather concerns, primarily focused along and north of Hwy 412. This pattern generally persists into the weekend and afternoon high temperatures will soar into the upper 70s or lower 80s. Moisture will eventually begin to increase within the southerly flow, but until this occurs, fire weather will remain the primary concern Friday through the weekend.

By Saturday night or Sunday, another frontal boundary will advance into the area. This front will likely be stronger and rain/thunder chances will tend to increase for much of the forecast area. High temperatures Sunday will be highly dependent on the position of this front, with a sharp N-S gradient possible across the FA. This will mark the beginning of a pattern change for the region going forward. Deterministic and ensemble data support the idea of a much wetter period next week as upper level ridging across the desert SW is replaced with troughing and SW flow overspreads the Southern Plains. The details at this range remain uncertain, but it does appear cooler temperatures and much needed rains may be on their way.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail, however KFSM and KMLC sites will be on the periphery of MVFR ceilings this afternoon into early evening. Generally light winds overnight in advance of the next cold front may allow patchy low clouds and/or fog to develop but confidence is low as guidance contains a large spread in potential. Forecast will maintain mention of periodic impacts across western AR tonight with updated forecasts adjusting as needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 46 71 41 77 / 10 10 0 0 FSM 47 74 41 76 / 10 10 0 0 MLC 48 73 41 77 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 41 70 34 77 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 44 69 35 74 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 46 66 38 74 / 20 20 0 0 MKO 48 71 41 76 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 45 68 39 74 / 20 10 0 0 F10 48 73 41 77 / 10 10 0 0 HHW 50 77 46 76 / 0 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.