textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Warming trend continues with unseasonably warm temperatures and gusty south winds expected at least through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday. This will keep fire weather concerns elevated.

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances mid to late week, with periods of heavy rain potential, and possibly severe weather.

- Cool and dry conditions late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Another windy day, featuring fire weather concerns, is in progress, with gusts already this morning in the 30 to 40 mph range in the Wind Advisory area across northeast Oklahoma. Afternoon high temperatures will be at record levels today, but with low level dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s, afternoon relative humidities will only drop into the 30 to 45 percent range areawide. This will limit the overall fire weather threat once again. Forecast grassland fire spread rates across western Osage and Pawnee counties continue to be on the upper end of the near critical range this afternoon. While wind speeds and gusts are expected to trend downward overnight, the development of a strong level jet will keep speeds and gusts up through the night. The combo of the winds and low level moisture will lead to lows only dropping into the mid to upper 60s in much of the area.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Fire weather concerns will persist into at least Tuesday and now, it looks like Wednesday as well. Strong and gusty southerly winds and continued warm temperatures will exist again Tuesday, leading to grassland fire spread rates again into the near critical range in much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. In addition to the continued non-critical minimum relative humidities serving as a limit on the overall threat, the expectation of increased cloud cover tomorrow will also limit it.

A cold front remains on track to approach and possibly move into parts of northeast Oklahoma very late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, although current trends point toward a more northern stall point than at this same time yesterday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, aided by the development of another strong low level jet. The low level jet will also lead to the eventual northward push of the front for Wednesday, and additional fire weather concerns during the afternoon given continued very warm and windy conditions south of the front. Similar limits on the overall fire weather threat to Tuesday will exist for Wednesday.

Shower and thunderstorm development will be more likely across the area Wednesday night and into Thursday due to an upper level system moving through the area and bringing some upper level support for storms. At least isolated severe weather potential will exist with these storms, especially during the evening hours. Locally heavy rain could also occur Wednesday night, but with dry antecedent conditions, the threat for flooding appears low at this time. The front will not move all the way through the area, with temperatures remaining above normal on Thursday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms, with additional severe storm and heavy rain potential, will accompany a stronger upper system Friday and into Saturday. This system will have a higher likelihood of pushing the front through the area, bringing cooler temperatures and lower moisture to the region for much of the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

MVFR cigs across far SE OK will continue to scatter out by mid afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing elsewhere through tonight. South to southwesterly winds will once again be gusty through the afternoon with some gusts around 35 knots across NE OK sites. Winds will remain gusty but back off some overnight tonight, while a strong LLJ will increase wind shear for all sites overnight. Another deck of MVFR cigs could try to spread northward again by early tomorrow morning and could affect KMLC through the morning hours tomorrow. Otherwise, increasing mid and high cloud will be noted over the area with continued breezy conditions through the end of the period.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 87 67 86 66 / 0 0 10 40 FSM 87 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 83 65 85 66 / 0 0 0 20 BVO 89 63 88 61 / 0 0 10 50 FYV 84 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 82 65 83 64 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 85 64 83 65 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 84 65 83 63 / 0 0 10 50 F10 84 64 84 66 / 0 0 10 20 HHW 82 61 82 63 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>057-059>062- 064.

AR...None.