textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 - Additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday evening with increasing heavy rainfall potential.

- Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

- Unsettled pattern returns late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Upper low moving across the Central Rockies overnight, with responding increase in low level southerly flow bringing renewed surge of moisture across the forecast area tonight. Expect an expansion of low clouds by Friday morning with south winds keeping temperatures very mild once again, with lows mainly in the 60s. Strengthening low level warm advection pattern may result in isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm from western AR into parts of far eastern OK.

Continuing influx of moisture Friday as the upper low moves into the Central Plains results in PWAT near climatological max values by Friday afternoon and evening. Will also see increasingly unstable conditions in advance of an approaching cold front. There are continued signals for a few elevated thunderstorms developing within moist axis Friday afternoon, but main chance of any convection will occur later in the afternoon and evening as the front pushes south into the local area. The mid level flow becomes increasingly parallel to the front and thus expect storms to trend to a more linear mode fairly quickly, which should ultimately favor gusty winds as the main severe hazard Friday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Continued expansion of showers and storms is anticipated Friday evening as the front continues to push southward. This should result in a transition away from severe weather threat to heavy rainfall, with the most likely axis of highest amounts becoming focused southeast of I-44 Friday night. In general this keeps heaviest amounts south of axis of heavy rainfall from Wednesday night, and given antecedent drought conditions reduces flash flooding threat. That said, given the moisture profiles expected, an axis of rainfall 3-4 inches seems plausible and could lead to some localized issues, especially given potential for excessive rates.

Rain will continue to push south through Saturday morning with a much cooler and drier airmass following for the Easter weekend. Parts of northeast OK and northwest AR will likely dip into the upper or even mid 30s for lows by Sunday morning. A stretch of dry and pleasant weather will ensue for the early part of next week with temperatures overall not far off seasonal averages as upper ridging expands back across the region. A more active pattern is noted by late next week with southwest flow aloft returning.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR ceilings will develop at all sites overnight and will persist until around midday or early afternoon Friday before lifting to VFR. Showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday afternoon and expand in coverage Friday evening, with all sites being impacted before the end of the forecast period. South winds will gust 20-30 knots at times during the day Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 80 52 64 42 / 60 90 20 0 FSM 85 56 67 42 / 40 90 70 0 MLC 83 54 66 44 / 40 100 60 0 BVO 79 45 64 37 / 70 80 10 0 FYV 81 52 63 39 / 50 100 60 0 BYV 81 52 61 40 / 40 100 60 0 MKO 82 51 64 40 / 40 100 40 0 MIO 80 48 61 38 / 60 90 20 0 F10 82 51 64 40 / 40 100 40 0 HHW 82 54 66 45 / 30 90 80 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.