textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 106 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Near record to record warmth is expected through Tuesday.

- Fire weather concerns increase today and Monday.

- Confidence is increasing that a widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall event will occur Tuesday night through Thursday over a portion of the area. A few strong to severe storms will be possible.

- Much cooler and drier weather is expected by next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Not much going on in the near term, with the main differences being a few more high clouds and increased winds compared to the last several days. South to southwest winds are gusting 20 to 30 mph across the region. The stronger winds are raising fire weather concerns, especially across northeast Oklahoma where spread indices are highest. Persistent, near record high temps will continue. Overnight lows will trend milder tonight as the regime changes to more wind at night out of the south.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Ridging aloft over the Plains, downstream from an upper trough over the western CONUS, will continue to support near record warmth on Monday. A tighter gradient over the region between lee troughing to our west and a surface high along the Gulf Coast will continue to bring gusty south to southwest winds. The winds and warm temps will yield higher spread indices across NE OK and far NW AR, so it is likely that another fire danger statement will be needed. Winds will not be quite as strong on Tuesday and humidity will be on the increase, limiting the fire weather danger some.

The models are in better agreement today with the evolution of the upper air pattern this coming week, increasing confidence in the forecast details. An upper trough over the southwest CONUS is expected to eject into the central Plains by Thursday, eventually phasing with a strong upper trough in the northern stream diving southeast over the Great Lakes.

Storms are expected to develop by late Tuesday along focusing boundaries to our north and west with chances increasing into our area Tuesday night into Wednesday as the effective boundary gets forced down into our region. With warm and humid air in place over the area ahead of the boundary, some severe weather will be possible. Models suggest another round of rain and storms is expected Wednesday night into Thursday as lift increases ahead of the ejecting southern stream wave and advancing polar front. Thus, multiple rounds of rain and storms are expected within a plume of unseasonably high PWATs that stretch from Mexico north into the region. EPS/GEFS mean total QPFs are in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, with deterministic guidance showing potential for locally heavy totals in the 5 to 6 inch range through Thursday. The majority of this QPF is focused across northeast OK, possibly bleeding into far northwest AR. The widespread moderate to locally heavy rains could lead to some river flooding, but the bigger threat at this point appears to be localized flash flooding. There will have been about 2 weeks since the last rainfall, with an extended drought before that from the summer. So it is uncertain as to how much of the rainfall will become runoff. Nevertheless, the localized heavy rain potential may warrant a Flood Watch in the coming days.

Rain/storm chances drop off Thursday night as the polar cold front advances south and east across the region, with a dry forecast by Friday. A much cooler and more seasonable airmass will move into the region behind the front, dropping forecast high temps below average for this time of year Friday and Saturday (sort of hard to believe with how warm it has been). Overnight lows over the weekend will drop into the 40s with maybe even some upper 30s in the sheltered valley locations. There will be a true fall-like feel to the air, for a change.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions, with only a few to scattered high and mid-level clouds, will continue to prevail through the forecast period at all sites. LLWS at around 2000 feet agl is expected areawide overnight tonight. Sfc winds will increase and become gusty again by mid to late Monday morning, with frequent gusts in excess of 20 knots through the afternoon.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 70 91 73 92 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 67 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 68 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 66 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 64 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 68 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 68 89 71 90 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 68 89 70 89 / 0 0 0 0 F10 68 89 71 90 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 66 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.