textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1054 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Much warmer Tuesday with increasing south winds raising fire weather concerns across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain totals will remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and accumulating snow and ice.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

South winds will be on the increase during the day Tuesday resulting in a return to much warmer temperatures. This will also raise fire weather concerns by afternoon mainly across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A weak cold front will move across the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Increasing moisture ahead of this front will result in scattered showers developing from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Precipitation looks to remain all liquid as temperatures likely hold steady or slowly rise after a quick drop off Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning will remain light, generally under one quarter inch.

All attention remains focused on the winter storm system that will likely affect the area Friday and Saturday. Bitterly cold air will move south into the area late Thursday night and Friday morning, setting the stage for widespread wintry precipitation. While some light precipitation may fall during the day Friday, the more significant precipitation looks to hold off until Friday night and Saturday. At this time, it appears much of the area will see mostly snow, although some wintry mix will be possible initially south of Interstate 40 before a changeover to snow occurs. Across far southeast Oklahoma, a more prolonged period of freezing rain and/or sleet will be possible, with a full changeover to snow perhaps not occurring until during the day Saturday. Temperatures will be bitterly cold, with many places remaining in the teens during the day Saturday.

While it remains too early to focus on specific amounts of ice and snow, the consensus is for the greatest QPF to fall across the southern half of the forecast area, with lesser amounts to the north. Lesser may be relative in this case, as a significant number of models and ensembles show QPF values over one half inch across the entire forecast area, and snow ratios will be higher than the usual 10:1. There is a subset of models though that show much lower amounts in the northern part of the forecast area. For now, stayed fairly conservative with snow amounts since we are still 4+ days out. Amounts will be refined in the coming days as confidence increases.

Skies will clear Sunday into early next week, with temperatures highly uncertain as they will be fully dependent on the amount of snow cover that exists at that time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all sites. Light winds persist through the overnight period as high pressure moves through the region. By late morning and afternoon, south-southwest winds will increase to 10-20 kts, especially across NE OK and NW AR. Skies remain mostly clear for much of the period, though low clouds will attempt to move into SE OK late in the period. LLWS, gusting to 40 kts, develops areawide by late evening through Tuesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 31 20 50 34 / 10 0 0 10 FSM 36 19 52 35 / 10 0 0 40 MLC 39 19 52 40 / 10 0 0 30 BVO 31 17 50 29 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 31 15 47 35 / 10 0 0 30 BYV 27 17 48 33 / 10 0 0 20 MKO 31 19 50 36 / 10 0 0 20 MIO 28 18 47 31 / 10 0 0 10 F10 32 19 50 37 / 10 0 0 20 HHW 46 23 53 39 / 0 0 0 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.