textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- An extended period of hot weather will persist through the upcoming week. Heat headlines will be needed most days.

- Low afternoon rain/storm chances are now in the forecast for the weekend and again late next week. What rain that does fall is not likely to reverse recent drought trends.

- Localized fire weather concerns will exist most days due to the worsening drought.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A hot and dry afternoon will transition to a quiet and warm summer evening. Light winds overnight should allow overnight lows to drop into the 70s most places, with upper 60s possible in isolated sheltered valley areas.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

An upper ridge is expected to amplify over the northern Plains this weekend, downstream from deep troughing along the West Coast. Our area will be in a light east to northeast flow on its south side. Also, WV and PWAT satellite imagery indicates a pool of richer PWAT air to our east and south that will be spreading west. The CAMs today are more optimistic that we will see at least spotty afternoon showers and storms over the weekend, likely at least in some part due to the position of the ridge aloft (not over our region) and an increase in PWATs (richer deep layer moisture). Some slight chance PoPs were added both Saturday and Sunday, mainly over eastern areas (starting in the terrain and working west). Used CONSShort and CONSRaw as guidance for PoPs.

As far as the heat is concerned, forecast temps in the low 100s with the humidity in place will yield daily heat headlines. A heat advisory was issued for Saturday and additional advisories will be needed Sunday on into next week.

Upper heights rise overhead on Monday and will continue to rise toward the middle of next week as the ridge expands in scope across the South/Southeast. Hot and dry weather will prevail. Toward the end of the week, troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast may be strong enough to force a back door front close enough to our area to bring low rain/storm chances close to the KS and MO borders. Drought busting rains are unlikely however.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with near persistent daily trends. Occasionally gusty southerly winds this afternoon will decrease and become light to near calm overnight. Winds stay light out of the south or southwest through Saturday morning.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 100 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 103 77 103 77 / 0 0 20 10 MLC 100 75 101 76 / 0 0 20 10 BVO 101 72 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 100 74 100 74 / 0 0 20 10 BYV 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 99 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 99 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 10 F10 99 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 97 74 99 75 / 0 0 10 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053- 055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>068-070-071- 073>075-154-176-254-272-276-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-129- 219-220-229.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.