textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1206 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Gusty south winds and warm temperatures continue Monday.

- Thunderstorm chances return by Monday evening through Tuesday night. Some severe weather potential will exist Monday night and Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures briefly return mid-week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Gusty south winds will continue Monday, along with above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s despite increasing high level cloudiness. Dew points will also steadily increase as low level moisture increases during the day.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Monday evening into early Tuesday, with the best chances across far northeast Oklahoma where elevated convection may develop. If storms do occur here, elevated instability will be sufficient for some hail. Isolated storms may also develop late Monday afternoon or evening along the dryline across southwest Oklahoma, with some potential for these storms to move into parts of southeast Oklahoma by late Monday evening as they weaken.

A strong cold front will move across the area late Monday night and Tuesday, with additional shower and storm development possible near the boundary, especially late Tuesday afternoon and evening from far southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This will be the most likely location for a severe storm Tuesday. Additional elevated showers and storms may develop north of the boundary and persist into Wednesday before ending.

Much colder temperatures will prevail north of the frontal boundary Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a warming trend beginning Thursday. Temperatures will warm back above normal by Friday into next weekend. Rain chances will return next weekend, with a hint at MCS potential at that time with west to northwest upper level flow continuing.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A strong LLJ will bring LLWS conditions both overnight tonight and again tomorrow night. Gusty south winds during the day will reach around 30 kts, with a few higher gusts possible. The latest CAMs suggest a storm may develop off the dryline in SW OK and move toward KMLC by early evening. Inserted prob30 mention there to cover.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 83 63 70 49 / 0 30 10 20 FSM 82 64 81 55 / 0 40 30 50 MLC 82 67 80 52 / 0 20 10 30 BVO 83 59 65 46 / 10 30 20 30 FYV 80 60 75 48 / 10 60 60 50 BYV 79 60 72 48 / 10 70 80 60 MKO 81 64 78 50 / 0 40 20 30 MIO 79 59 67 47 / 10 60 50 40 F10 81 65 77 49 / 0 30 10 20 HHW 80 68 83 59 / 0 10 10 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.