textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1035 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Rain chances will increase tonight through Sunday, mainly for portions of eastern Oklahoma. Hazardous impacts are not expected. Highest rainfall amounts are expected across southeast Oklahoma.

- Warming and quiet through the middle of next week.

- Additional rain chances forecast to arrive late next week and into next weekend associated with an upper level storm system and cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday Night) Issued at 1034 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Latest surface observations in the region show high pressure shifting east across the Upper Midwest this evening, leaving eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas under light east to southeast winds and increasing mid- and high-level cloud cover. Isentropic ascent continues to increase ahead of an approaching mid-level trough/low. Radar imagery from KTLX and KINX show light rain showers already spreading into eastern Oklahoma from the west. This will persist through daybreak Sunday.

During the daytime on Sunday, the mid-level low will track eastward and hug the Red River Valley. Widespread rain will overspread mainly eastern Oklahoma and portions of western Arkansas. Compared to yesterday's guidance, global models and high-resolution CAMs have shifted the primary rainfall axis noticeably southwestward while trimming overall QPF totals across the northeastern half of the CWA. This southwest shift is driven by a slightly more suppressed southern track of the mid-level wave and persistent dry low-level easterly flow originating from the departing surface ridge, which limits deep moisture return north and northeast of I-40. As a result, the highest rainfall totals (0.50 to 1.0 inch) will remain focused across east-central and far southeast Oklahoma, while northeast and far eastern Oklahoma, as well as northwest Arkansas, see much lighter amounts (generally under a tenth of an inch). Several locations in these areas may not see any measurable rainfall from this event. Limited instability will keep thunder chances near zero, while thick cloud cover and rain hold Sunday highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures may rise into the middle 50s where cloud coverage is less and where rain does not fall or fall as much.

By Sunday night and into Monday morning, the mid-level trough axis will push east into the Lower Mississippi Valley, causing rain to taper off from northwest to southeast during the late evening hours. Some residual light rain and/or drizzle may linger beyond midnight across southeast Oklahoma Sunday night. Model guidance shows cloud cover will begin to clear from northeast to southwest Sunday evening/night and into Monday morning. Light winds out of the east become variable, allowing overnight lows to settle into the mid to upper 30s to near 40 degrees near the Red River. The clearing skies may allow temperatures to briefly dip to or near freezing across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1034 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Weak upper-level ridging and surface high pressure build back across the Southern Plains on Monday, bringing sunny skies and rebounding afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Quiet and pleasant fall weather will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as southerly return flow re-establishes, pushing daytime highs into the low to mid 60s.

Low-level moisture return will increase mid-to-late week. A quick-moving shortwave trough will move across the Central/Northern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Surface ridging over the Appalachians may draw in enough low-level moisture for low-end precipitation chances (10-20%) Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly across eastern Oklahoma, as the shortwave trough departs. Otherwise, most of Thursday and Friday look dry and mild, with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ensemble suites and long-range deterministic models indicate another and more potent upper-level trough ejecting off the Rockies and into the Plains Friday night into Saturday. While there remains a big spread in model solutions regarding exact evolution, timing, and position of the approaching trough, low-to- medium rain chances (20-50%) were introduced ahead of an associated cold front forecast to move through Saturday afternoon/evening. Details will continue to be fine-tuned over the next several days. Temperatures should cool back toward seasonal averages behind the front by next Saturday.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Scattered showers will become numerous for KMLC overnight, with a few showers at times spreading into the Tulsa area during the later overnight hours and Sunday morning. There is a slight (20 percent) chance of a few sprinkles reaching into KBVO and KFSM as well. Ceilings will develop but remain in VFR category for most areas, though KMLC could briefly reach MVFR during heavier showers. Similarly, visibility will come down some in areas with rainfall, but mostly in the 4-6 SM range. Winds will remain light through the period, mostly favoring the east. Any rain will end Sunday late afternoon or evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 41 52 35 60 / 30 20 10 0 FSM 39 56 37 61 / 10 10 10 0 MLC 38 47 37 58 / 50 80 60 0 BVO 35 53 30 60 / 10 20 10 0 FYV 32 57 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 34 54 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 40 50 36 58 / 30 20 10 0 MIO 36 57 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 F10 40 47 39 57 / 60 70 30 0 HHW 40 46 41 61 / 30 100 50 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.