textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the upcoming work week. Expect heat headlines on multiple days.

- While much of the region has received rainfall over the past few days, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Lee side pressure falls resulting in stronger southerly low level flow this morning, with some gusts over 20 mph already noted. This will allow for hotter airmass to spread farther north compared to yesterday, and also raise the fire weather potential to a degree in those areas that missed the rain late last week as RH falls to around 35%. Current heat advisory will continue for all but northwest AR and a small adjacent part of northeast OK, with temps in the upper 90s to a little over 100 and HI topping out near 105.

Slightly deeper moisture resides across western AR into far southeast OK and a few terrain-forced storms are still possible this afternoon and evening, however most locations will remain dry.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Little change in the overall pattern is anticipated this week. A frontal boundary in the Central Plains will push farther south Tuesday, potentially warming temps a degree or two. This may also allow for evening storms to at least brush the far northern locations, and the potential for isolated terrain-driven convection remains as well. The upper ridge is forecast to expand slightly to the northwest later in the week, which should reduce the threat of thunderstorms even further. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed.

Some degree of upper ridge breakdown is still indicated by global models next week, but ensemble spread still is high and exactly when this happens remains in question at this point.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period for all sites. Gusty south-southwest winds continue this afternoon before decreasing this evening and tonight. LLWS is expected overnight across parts of NE OK as the nocturnal LLJ strengthens. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, particularly across the higher terrain of NW AR, but most of the region will remain dry. Probabilities remain too low to mention in TAFs at this time, but amendments may be required for any development near TAF sites. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow with sfc winds increasing by late morning into the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 80 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 77 103 77 101 / 0 10 0 20 MLC 79 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 74 101 71 99 / 0 0 20 0 FYV 73 99 73 98 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 75 98 75 96 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 76 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 76 98 74 97 / 0 0 20 10 F10 77 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 76 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>067- 070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053- 055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-219-220- 229.