textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- A few showers and storms possible through tonight from northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma.

- Noticeably cooler temperatures arrive Monday and persist through the week.

- Some thunderstorm chance returns by the weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Surface cold front continues to slowly push through southeast OK this afternoon, but is exhibiting some difficulty getting past the higher terrain. Potential remains for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop near the boundary later this afternoon in a destabilizing airmass, while slightly drier airmass continues to spread across northeast OK. Weakening cluster of thunderstorms across northwest OK may make a run at far northeast OK later this afternoon, but vast majority of the local area should remain dry through today. The arrival of this front does mark the beginning of a stretch of less hot weather, though for the most part temps will remain above average.

Later tonight as the 850mb boundary continues to push south, a few showers or a thunderstorm could develop along the boundary from northwest AR into southeast OK, but again the vast majority of locations should stay dry overnight. Will also see cooler overnight lows for all but the far southern areas.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The surface pattern will continue to be dominated buy an extensive surface high centered over southeast Canada extending southwest- ward into the Southern/Central Plains. This will keep temperatures cooler than recently with a bit lower humidity, but likely still above normal for daytime highs. This effect will be more noticeable across northeast OK and northwest AR.

An upper level high over the region will weaken as a system moves through the plains by the weekend. This will result in an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances while maintaining temperatures a little above normal. At this point no major cool- down is evident anytime soon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected to develop late tonight and persist into Tuesday morning at the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites. VFR conditions will then return by late morning Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 65 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 71 93 67 92 / 20 20 0 0 MLC 68 92 67 94 / 20 20 0 0 BVO 57 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 63 86 59 87 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 65 84 60 83 / 20 10 10 0 MKO 65 88 63 90 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 61 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 F10 64 88 62 90 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 70 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.