textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon areawide. Severe weather is not expected, but heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible.

- Daily rain and storm chances continue through the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary concern, which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly below average over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Patchy valley fog may once again develop overnight and early Tuesday morning, but should not be as widespread or locally dense as previous nights. An upper low currently located over northeast Texas will move north over E OK and NW AR during the day Tuesday. Moisture advection will continue as this occurs and results in widespread shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday afternoon and evening. Slow storm motions and potential for training storms may lead to heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially across NW AR. Poor wind shear will keep severe weather potential very low, but locally gusty winds may develop under the stronger showers/storms. Temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than Monday, but still near average in the lower 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

As the aforementioned upper low drifts north, elongated upper level troughing will expand across the desert southwest and pivot into the southern high plains. The trough moves northeastward late Tuesday into Wednesday and aids in the development of thunderstorms over N TX/W OK. This activity will gradually move toward the FA and rain chances increase from SW to NE late Tuesday night and during the day Wednesday. Guidance then suggests a low level cyclone will remain in the vicinity for several days with daily rain/storm chances persisting into this weekend. The exact progression of thunderstorm activity and focus for heaviest rains will likely be driven by subtle mesoscale features through late week. A pattern change featuring increased ridging may allow for drier conditions as we move into early June, but model solutions vary at this range, with generally weak flow remaining in place. The NBM maintains at least low rain and thunder chances through next Monday, which seems appropriate for now.

While organized severe weather is unlikely through the extended period, excessive rainfall will be a concern as PWATs climb to near climatological maximums. Flash flood potential is likely to be maximized during the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. For the most part, temperatures stay within a few degrees of 80 through the forecast period, but Thursday and Friday may tend to be relatively cooler due to increased cloud cover and precipitation.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions may be interrupted by patchy fog and/or stratus with far NW AR the most likely to be impacted through sunrise. Increasing mid cloud ceilings will overspread the region through the day with scattered showers and storms expected primarily from late morning through early evening. Expect VFR flight levels to prevail through much of the day outside of heavier rains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 65 81 66 79 / 10 80 80 80 FSM 66 84 67 82 / 10 80 80 80 MLC 66 81 66 81 / 30 90 70 70 BVO 61 82 64 79 / 10 60 70 80 FYV 62 83 66 80 / 10 60 80 90 BYV 61 82 64 78 / 20 40 60 80 MKO 64 81 65 79 / 10 80 80 80 MIO 62 83 65 80 / 10 40 60 80 F10 64 80 64 80 / 20 90 80 70 HHW 67 79 66 81 / 40 80 60 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.