textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 650 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- A sharp warming trend continues through the end of the week. Near record high temperatures are forecast by late week.

- Limited fire weather threat each afternoon through Saturday. Elevated conditions behind cold front Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1107 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Temperatures will warm to well above normal readings by this afternoon, with most locations in the 70s. The warmest temperatures will be in northeast OK and coolest in northwest AR. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy as high clouds pass through, but some clearing is expected by this evening. With breezy conditions and low humidity this afternoon, fire weather concerns will develop. Overnight tonight, temperatures will fall to the upper 40s with lighter winds.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1107 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

A sprawling and record breaking upper level ridge will build across the southwest USA the next few days. Although well removed from the strongest height/temperature anomalies, record breaking heat is still expected to develop this week across the forecast area.

Temperatures will rapidly warm Thursday, with widespread 80s expected, with a few spots approaching 90F in northeast Oklahoma. A weak boundary will pass through Thursday evening, but will do little to slow down the building heat. Even hotter conditions develop Friday and Saturday with upper 80s to low 90s. A few spots may reach the mid 90s. Record highs are quite possible during this period. ECMWF EFI for max temperatures shows widespread values of 1, meaning conditions outside of the models climatology are anticipated, a testament to how unusual this heat will be for this time of year. Further confirmation can be found in the EPS EFI tables, showing multiple days of upper level heights and temperatures at the 99th to 100th percentile. Some slight moisture creep will keep temperatures from getting totally out of hand, with dew points rising into the 50s to even 60F in some spots by Saturday.

A cold front is then expected to pass through Sunday. Some guidance is slower with the timing, and if this occurs Sunday could again reach 90+ for many locations. More likely a somewhat faster frontal passage will result in warm but not extreme temperatures. Either way, rain is not likely. As drier and windier weather develops behind the front, fire weather concerns will elevate. Temperatures will cool closer to normal for a day or two, but with anomalous ridging overhead, well above normal temperatures are favored to develop towards the end of next week. Rain remains elusive and is not expected at this time through day 7.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period for all sites. Light south to southwest winds continue overnight before increasing slightly out of the southwest Thursday morning and afternoon. A front is forecast to move into NE OK Thursday afternoon, leading to a period of variable winds in KBVO, KTUL, and KRVS. Passing high clouds continue overnight, becoming mostly clear during the day Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 49 86 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 48 85 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 50 86 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 43 86 46 91 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 48 82 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 50 82 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 49 84 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 47 82 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 F10 50 87 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 48 83 53 86 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.