textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1126 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 - There is a limited severe weather risk Friday in association with a front.

- An unsettled weather pattern sets in by late in the weekend and continues into next week. Multiple opportunities for thunderstorms, along with some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall potential will exist during this time.

- A window for more widespread and higher-end severe weather potential is emerging Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Storms that have developed along a front over western Kansas are expected to dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening and will not impact the region.

Much like last night, some southerly flow is expected to persist through the night, with the more sheltered valley locations expected to decouple and radiate down. Sites such as Bartlesville and Drake Field will be cooler than surrounding areas by Thursday morning, possibly dipping into the upper 40s, while 50s are observed elsewhere. Overnight lows will trend milder in the coming nights as low level moisture increases from the south.

Gusty southerly winds are expected again on Thursday, south of a front over Kansas. There should be more scattered cu around tomorrow afternoon as well as low level moisture increases, as previously mentioned. The gusty winds will bring some fire weather concern, though this concern will be limited by the green-up that is occurring over the region.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase Thursday night into early Friday morning as an outflow boundary from storms that develop along the front over Kansas moves south toward and possibly into northeast Oklahoma. The synoptic boundary is expected to drop south and stall near the Kansas and Missouri borders on Friday as surface high pressure slides across the Midwest. Isolated to scattered storms developing near the boundary Friday afternoon will pose a limited hail/locally damaging wind threat.

After a relatively quiet day Saturday, the beginning of what will be a period of unsettled weather begins Saturday night with increasing storm chances from the west. A subtle wave embedded within strengthening southwest flow aloft will bring increased thunderstorm chances and higher severe weather potential by Sunday. The models also show pockets of locally heavy rain potential as well. With better moisture in place and continued strong southwest flow aloft, some chance for storms and severe weather will linger into Monday.

A wave over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to strengthen as it dives equator-ward by the weekend, kicking the current weaker system off the coast of California inland. This system will then evolve into a strong and more progressive shortwave trough over the Southwest by early next week and then eject into the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. While details such as timing, surface feature placement, etc. will be ironed out in the coming days, there is enough support for this general idea from deterministic and ensemble data to suggest that there will probably be a window for more heightened and higher-end severe weather potential during this time frame.

There should be a period of more tranquil weather to close out next week in the wake of the aforementioned system. Looking farther down the road, there are some indications that another deep upper trough will set up over the Southwest going into the April 20s, with more active weather to follow.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period, with afternoon cumulus development likely at all sites. Southerly winds will become gusty late morning through the afternoon everywhere except FSM. Expect gusts 20 to 25 kts. LLWS looks to develop across NE OK Thursday night, but current timing is most likely after the end of this period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 81 61 81 61 / 0 0 30 20 FSM 82 58 83 60 / 10 0 20 10 MLC 80 61 81 61 / 10 0 10 10 BVO 81 56 80 56 / 0 20 60 30 FYV 79 54 80 58 / 10 0 30 10 BYV 78 58 79 57 / 10 0 40 10 MKO 80 58 81 59 / 0 0 20 10 MIO 80 58 77 58 / 0 10 70 30 F10 80 60 82 60 / 0 0 20 10 HHW 79 59 80 59 / 0 0 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.