textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1132 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Scattered storms are expected mainly across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Monday afternoon. There is a limited risk of severe weather with these storms, damaging wind being the primary threat.

- A brief period of relatively cooler weather is expected early this week before temperatures warm back above average Wednesday and Thursday.

- Thunderstorm chances return toward the end of the week along with hot and humid weather.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

An outflow boundary is advancing southwest across the Ozarks of MO this evening, with a few showers and storms developing along and riding with the boundary. There is a low chance this activity makes it into northwest AR. Recent radar trends are for weakening with the loss of daytime heating. The HRRR also shows potential for an isolated sunrise surprise shower or storm over SE OK. Aside from what was mentioned, the weather tonight will be quiet, much different from 24 hours ago.

A PV max was analyzed by models over west-central Missouri, dropping south. This system is expected to settle down into Arkansas on Monday, and by afternoon, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop beneath the feature. Storms may congeal into small clusters and ride outflow toward the south with a limited severe wind threat. Storms should die off with the loss of daytime heating Monday evening.

Afternoon highs Monday should be near or slightly below average for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The area of low pressure aloft over Arkansas moves slowly east and farther away from the forecast area by Tuesday. Shortwave ridging slides overhead into Wednesday. Aside from some chances for afternoon showers and storms in the terrain of SE OK and W AR, both days should be dry most places, but the mercury will be climbing again.

A wave sliding across the central Plains and Midwest later this week will send another storm-focusing front/boundary down into KS by Thursday. The main questions at this point is whether or not an MCS organizes and drops south into the region, and the timing of such a feature. Its possible we could see something at least vaguely familiar to what occurred yesterday in the Thursday to Saturday time frame, but with less flow and organization.

A strong ridge of high pressure aloft is expected to form and expand over the central part of the country as we head into next week. Rain chances will cease and the mercury will climb some more. More heat headlines to come.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period. some areas of fog through the early morning hours will be possible, especially where skies have cleared and places that saw rain yesterday across NE OK and NW AR. Otherwise, light and variable winds will be common with few to scattered low to high clouds streaming over the region. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon near an upper low from SE OK into WC AR. KFSM has the best chances at seeing terminal impacts and have introduced a PROB30 group from mid afternoon into early evening. Any storm activity should wane after sunset with mostly calm and clear conditions persisting thereafter.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 91 71 90 72 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 94 72 92 73 / 20 10 20 10 MLC 93 71 92 72 / 10 0 10 0 BVO 89 68 89 68 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 89 67 88 68 / 20 10 20 10 BYV 87 66 87 67 / 20 10 20 0 MKO 90 70 90 71 / 10 0 10 0 MIO 89 68 89 69 / 10 0 0 0 F10 90 69 90 70 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 92 71 91 72 / 20 10 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.