textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms again Sunday. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns.

- Moderate flooding on Polecat Creek near Sapulpa through Sunday morning. - A few storms could become marginally severe mainly Sunday afternoon. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines likely.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of western Arkansas with periods of rotation noted at times. Activity should push off to the north and east over the next couple of hours, with a lull in activity likely through the overnight hours. Some showers and isolated storms could redevelop across southeast Oklahoma through the overnight, but the widespread activity should hold off until Sunday morning. The slow moving upper low will continue to lift northeastward into Kansas during the day Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely become more numerous from Sunday morning into the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Enough instability will develop by afternoon, that a strong to severe storm will be possible. Mid level lapse rates will steepen somewhat tomorrow given the cooling temps aloft associated with the upper trough. Therefore, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns. Again, the tornado threat will be non zero as well, especially as low level shear increases toward the late afternoon and evening hours.

Additional heavy rainfall will also be likely with any showers and storms as precipitable water values remain near climatological max for this time of year. Efficient rainfall rates of one to two inches per hour will once again be common through Sunday afternoon. Convection should remain more scattered on Sunday, leading to lower widespread rain totals, but localized totals will still be high under any thunderstorms. Given the heavy rainfall across the area Saturday, will extend the Flood Watch to the southeast into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Showers and storms will lift northeast out of the forecast area Sunday night, with a few showers/storms lingering into Monday morning across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Upper ridging will then build into the region beginning Monday through the middle part of the week, leading to more typical heat and humidity across the region. Recent rainfall will also likely help intensify dewpoints each afternoon, pushing heat indices into the 105 range possibly as early as Monday for some locations and definitely on Tuesday for much of the area. Heat headlines will be likely during this time. A weak disturbance moving around the periphery of the ridge could lead to a cluster of storm developing across Kansas and making a run at far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Monday night into Tuesday morning. But storms will be weakening rapidly with coming under influence of the building ridge. Therefore, most look to remain dry for a couple of days after this system exits.

A strong upper trough will then track eastward across the Central and Northern Plains form mid to late week, pushing a frontal boundary near the region. Increasing shower and storm chances will again be the result, along with a slight reprieve on the intense heat into the weekend. Another front could move through the area over the weekend with additional storm chances and a bigger cooldown possible with that system.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Generally VFR conditions will prevail at the eastern Oklahoma sites until late tonight when MVFR to IFR ceilings will develop. Showers and storms may impact KMLC this evening. At the Arkansas sites, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this evening, with MVFR to IFR conditions prevailing. Brief improvement may occur at these sites late this evening, but MVFR to IFR conditions will return late tonight. Conditions will improve to VFR at most sites by Sunday afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage again by that time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 69 83 74 89 / 60 60 50 20 FSM 71 86 74 91 / 70 80 40 10 MLC 70 86 76 90 / 60 70 20 0 BVO 66 83 71 88 / 50 60 60 20 FYV 69 81 72 86 / 70 80 50 20 BYV 68 81 70 87 / 60 80 60 40 MKO 68 82 73 89 / 50 70 40 10 MIO 68 81 71 88 / 70 80 80 40 F10 68 84 73 89 / 60 70 30 0 HHW 69 85 74 90 / 60 70 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through late Sunday night for OKZ055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through late Sunday night for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229.