textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Brief cool down and some potential for showers and storms continues into Friday but unseasonably hot temperatures return over the weekend through next week.

- Thunderstorm chances return Saturday however confidence is low in exact placement and coverage.

- While locally heavy rainfall is possible through Friday night, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed late this evening across parts of far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in response to the mid level wave across the area. CAMs continue to advertise some increase in coverage after midnight, particularly across western Arkansas, although the overall coverage and intensity appear to be less than earlier thought. One noticeable forecast change with this package has been to decrease the forecast rainfall using the most recent short-term blended guidance. The potential for additional showers and thunderstorms during the day will continue in this same area, although the western edge will shift eastward with time.

Given the rains seen earlier today and some clearing across parts of northeast Oklahoma north of I-44, patchy fog development will be possible toward daybreak. A mention has been added to the forecast through mid morning.

Temperatures will remain near to maybe a degree or two above normal, depending on location, and likely slightly cooler than the NBM initialization, especially in north and eastern parts of the forecast area. Highs for Friday have been nudged closer to the short-term blend.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Most of the Friday night period should be dry, although a modest increase in shower and thunderstorm potential exists for parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas toward daybreak Saturday given the amount of low level warm advection. This potential will continue through the day, although uncertainty remains high regarding coverage and location of the greatest potential. Forecast POPs on Saturday reflect a broadbrushed version of a blend between the NBM and short-term blend. The highs for Saturday have been left alone from the NBM given the uncertainty regarding how much rain and convective cloud cover will be around during the day. Heat headlines will need to at least be considered for parts of the area Saturday.

Another batch of showers and thunderstorms will approach the Kansas border from the north Saturday night into early Sunday, but confidence is higher that this will not move too far south into the area given the building upper level high. Highs on Sunday and again on Monday are likely to be pushing triple digits across a good chunk of the area. The NBM initialization was largely accepted for highs both days, although some targeted increases were applied to account for recent low biases at a few sites. Heat headlines will likely be needed both days. Fire weather concerns will increase once again on Sunday and especially on Monday due to the return of gusty southerly winds.

Unseasonably hot conditions will extend through at least the middle of next week, with only low chances for showers and thunderstorms during the period, focused across areas near the Kansas border and the northern edge of the upper high. Uncertainty increases thereafter, with continued signs of another front approaching the area late week into next weekend. The most recent data indicates a later possible passage of this front than at this same time yesterday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Scattered showers with isolated thunder continue in the vicinity of the northwest Arkansas sites through the overnight hours. Impacts will likely remain minimal through the night, though some heavier showers could reduce VSBYs at times. Areas of fog could develop early this morning in the wake of the exiting showers, especially across NE OK sites where more clearing has occurred. Some guidance suggest some low cloud development is also possible through mid morning, with MVFR CIGs possible. TAFs should improve through the afternoon and evening as skies become mostly clear and winds remain generally light through the period.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 89 74 94 74 / 0 20 30 10 FSM 89 72 98 74 / 40 20 20 0 MLC 92 72 99 73 / 20 0 30 0 BVO 88 67 93 67 / 0 20 30 20 FYV 85 67 95 67 / 30 30 30 0 BYV 85 68 93 70 / 40 20 30 10 MKO 89 70 95 71 / 10 20 20 0 MIO 88 68 92 70 / 10 20 20 20 F10 90 71 97 72 / 10 0 30 0 HHW 93 72 97 73 / 50 0 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.