textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 552 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Above average highs and dry weather will continue through this weekend.

- Locally enhanced grassland fire spread rates possible northwest of I-44 Friday afternoon.

- Low rain chances return during the first half of next week along with temperatures closer to normal.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Upper level ridging will continue to strengthen over the region today, providing dry and warm conditions. Mostly clear skies will persist today, though high clouds will tend to increase overnight. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 70s-lower 80s this afternoon, and fall into the lower 50s or upper 40s tonight. Winds remain light out of the south/southeast.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

High pressure will continue to dominate the forecast with low impact weather likely to persist through this weekend. The only exception may be across NE OK on Friday, where limited fire weather conditions could develop during the afternoon. Winds will be higher Friday, especially along and NW of I-44, and with min RHs in the 25 to 35 percent range, locally enhanced grassland fire spread rates are forecast. Temperatures will remain well above average for the next several days with highs near or above 80 degrees.

By late Sunday, a potent upper low will begin to navigate E-NE out of the desert southwest, eventually moving into the C Plains Monday. This system will interact with a frontal boundary and produce increasing precipitation to our north and west. Some of this may move into at least parts of E OK Monday and Tuesday, but PoPs generally remain less than 20 percent at this time. Models diverge beyond this point and disagree on how to handle the aforementioned frontal boundary. Some solutions indicate the front will push south into the forecast area and help to clear things out, while other solutions keep the boundary to our north. The latest NBM seems to favor the former and brings cooler temperatures into the area Tuesday. Despite higher variability early in the week, guidance does appear to be in reasonable agreement that a strong trough will swing through the C/N Plains Wed-Thu. This would likely send a stronger front into our area with additional rain potential and another chance for cooler temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 53 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 53 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 52 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 48 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 49 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 52 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 53 81 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 52 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 F10 53 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 53 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.