textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Area-wide Wind Advisory in effect from 1 AM Sunday until 1 AM Monday for gusts up to 55 mph.

- Near-critical to critical fire spread rates expected Sunday afternoon, especially along and west of Highway 75.

- A low threat of severe thunderstorms will exist along/ahead of the front across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday.

- Light snow remains possible across extreme eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Sunday evening/night. Little, if any, accumulation expected.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

South winds have become breezy early Saturday night as pressure gradients tighten across the region. With the low level jet strengthening overnight, gusts will generally increase to 30 to 40 mph. Periodic gusts up to 45 mph will be possible, especially in the higher terrain of SE OK and NW AR. By daybreak Sunday, a strong cold front will be moving through central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma...quickly advancing toward the FA. The front will sweep through our area during the morning hours before clearing the CWA in the early-mid afternoon.

Northwest winds behind the front will become very strong, with gusts generally between 45 to 55 mph during the afternoon and evening hours. A Wind Advisory remains in effect areawide from 1 AM Sunday until 1 AM Monday. With 50-60kt 850mb winds overhead, isolated gusts in excess of 60 mph will certainly be possible, particularly along and northwest of I-44 and within the higher terrain of SE OK and NW AR. Currently expect any warning-level winds (40 mph sustained, 58+ mph gusts) will remain limited in duration and coverage across our area. However, observations will be monitored closely in case a warning becomes warranted. Relative humidities will fall behind the front, but should generally remain near/greater than 30% as temperatures rapidly decrease through the afternoon. Thus, while the environment may not be overly favorable for new fire starts, near-critical to critical fire spread rates are likely due to such strong wind speeds.

Some light showers will be possible within the warm, moist environment ahead of the front Sunday morning. However, better rain potential is expected by late morning/early afternoon as showers and thunderstorms develop along the advancing cold front. Latest guidance has continued to favor a quicker FROPA, which will tend to limit precipitation chances across E OK and NW AR. The best thunder/severe potential will likely remain restricted to NW AR zones, perhaps briefly in far E OK. If any storms did manage to intensify within our CWA, damaging wind gusts will be the main concern, mainly between noon and 3 PM. Storms will quickly move off to the east thereafter. Rainfall is likely to remain less than a tenth of an inch across NW AR and far E OK, with little or no rain for the remainder of E OK.

Coming off of a warm night, temperatures may briefly warm into the upper 60s or 70s ahead of the cold front Sunday morning / afternoon. Temperatures will then quickly decrease through the day in the post-frontal airmass, falling into the 30s by the evening. Wrap around moisture may still clip portions of NE OK and NW AR Sunday evening, but models have generally trended drier during this time. Any precipitation that occurs during this time would likely be a rain/snow mix or snow. However, little if any accumulation is expected. Temps continue to plummet overnight, with low temperatures generally in the 20s (upper teens far north OK/AR). This will be a hard to killing freeze for most of the CWA, and any outdoor sensitive vegetation should be moved inside or covered to prevent damage.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Monday morning will be miserably cold as a persistent northwest breeze brings wind chills into the single digits (north) and teens (south). In fact, a few locations in far NE OK and NW AR could briefly see wind chill values near 0 degrees around sunrise. Temperatures don't recover much during the day... likely remaining in the 30s and 40s areawide. Widespread freezing temperatures are likely again Monday night. Please be sure to bundle up as it will very much feel like winter Monday and Tuesday morning.

The good news is temperatures will begin to warm back up quickly through the week as upper level ridging expands across the Desert SW and Southern Plains. By late week, highs in the 80s will be common, perhaps eclipsing 90 degrees in a few areas Friday / Saturday. Dry conditions are probable through the remainder of the forecast period, with at least limited fire weather concerns likely persisting.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong and gusty southerly winds ongoing will become northwesterly and increase further as the advancing cold front sweeps rapidly eastward. MVFR ceilings have spread into SE OK and will continue an NNE advance prior to the frontal passage. Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible primarily across NW AR and the window for any aviation impact will be brief at any specific terminal. Periods of low VFR ceilings may persist into the evening with a low chance of a light wintry mix across NW AR. No winter impacts expected. Winds will remain gusty through the overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 71 23 43 25 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 71 24 43 24 / 50 0 0 0 MLC 74 25 45 26 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 65 18 43 19 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 63 18 38 19 / 50 10 0 0 BYV 65 19 35 19 / 50 10 0 0 MKO 71 23 43 24 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 67 20 38 19 / 20 10 0 0 F10 72 24 46 25 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 75 28 46 27 / 20 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019- 020-029.