textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 912 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Strong wind gusts develop this morning across much of the forecast area.

- Additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday evening with increasing heavy rainfall potential.

- Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 912 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The main change to the forecast was to issue a wind advisory headline for much of E OK and NW AR through 18Z.

A very potent upper level cyclone is evident on WV imagery this morning lifting northeast near the KS/NE border. At the surface, low pressure was centered to the south of Omaha, with a trailing Pacific cold front extending south of the low over central KS down into northwest OK. Winds off the deck are very strong this morning, with VAD winds from KINX showing 45 kts out of the southwest at 925mb. As mixing gets going with clearing skies, there will be potential for 40+mph gusts through the morning hours, supported by the latest 12Z HRRR and the 06Z EPS median max gust potential data. Thus, have issued a wind advisory through 18Z, with the expectation that the gust potential will drop off in the afternoon as the stronger 850-925mb flow lifts northeast out of the area in tandem with the upper low.

Lacy

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Broken line of storms extending from near BVO to OKC metro and back into northwest TX continues to slowly progress eastward, with lingering potential for sporadic strong wind gusts with some embedded bowing segments as low level shear has strengthened over the past few hours. However the thermodynamic environment ahead of the storms trending less favorable with time and eastward extent. Thus the severe threat will continue diminishing through the night. Localized heavy rainfall of 2-4" estimated across parts of Osage and Pawnee counties and some additional threat of localized heavy rain exists, but flooding potential remains low due to antecedent dry conditions.

Upper level shortwave will continue to move east across the Central Plains overnight through Thursday with persistent strong low level jet, and sfc low tracking eastward across Kansas. This will spur an increase in south-southwest winds later tonight into Thursday with gusts 30-35 mph likely. A few advisory level gusts will be possible across northeast OK and higher terrain areas to the east as well. Low level airmass doesn't change much Thursday afternoon save for some mixing of dry air in parts of northeast OK. Given this the RH should remain high enough to largely offset any fire weather concerns. The upper trough axis remains in close enough proximity to keep a low potential for a few shower or thunderstorms Thursday, but most areas will likely remain dry.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Low level moisture will surge north again Thursday night into Friday as an upper low moves across the Central/Northern Rockies and low level southerly flow re-strengthens. Warm advection regime will keep the potential for a few showers or thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. More robust and widespread development expected by Friday afternoon along a cold front that will enter northeast OK and surge southeast during the evening and overnight hours. Severe weather potential will increase during this period, with wind gusts likely becoming the main hazard given the linearly forced nature of the convection. This period will also likely feature an increase in heavy rainfall potential.

A cooler and drier airmass will push south behind the front Saturday with ridging over the western CONUS eventually expanding over the Southern Plains early next week. The result will be quiet weather for much of next week with temperatures starting out a bit below average for the weekend, then trending gradually upward through the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Showers will continue eastward across NW AR terminals through mid morning while pockets of MVFR ceilings possibly persist area wide until late morning. Gusty winds expected through the day. Low chance of showers and storms redeveloping near NW AR this afternoon but any higher chances currently appear further east of the local terminals so no mention included. Expect low clouds to make a rapid spread northward late tonight into Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 83 68 80 53 / 0 10 60 90 FSM 83 66 84 58 / 70 40 60 90 MLC 82 68 81 55 / 10 20 50 100 BVO 81 63 79 48 / 0 0 70 80 FYV 79 64 80 53 / 60 40 60 100 BYV 80 65 80 53 / 60 40 60 100 MKO 82 66 80 52 / 10 20 50 100 MIO 80 65 78 48 / 20 20 50 90 F10 83 66 80 52 / 0 10 50 100 HHW 81 65 80 56 / 50 20 50 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029.