textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Near record temperatures continue today with a Heat Advisory in effect.

- Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds, especially on Saturday across southeast Oklahoma.

- Low afternoon shower/storm chances continue, mainly across far E OK and NW AR, today and Friday. Higher rain chances arrive this weekend as a cold front brings cooler temperatures for early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Robust mid/upper-level ridging will be centered over the ArkLaTex region and will continue to be the main weather influencer through Friday. Unfortunately, this will keep unseasonably warm and humid nighttime temperatures and abnormally hot temperatures intact through the short-term period. A few spotty showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon, mainly south/east of I-44, but overall coverage should be less than the last few days. Strong, non-severe, downburst wind gusts would be the only concern if storms are able to form.

Consensus in deterministic models and ensembles show a pocket of dry air rounding the base of the 850-925mb ridge. This drier air is forecast to spread over the area Friday morning, with decent mixing to the surface during the daytime Friday. Although there is still uncertainty with how much mixing actually occurs, guidance hints at dewpoint temperatures generally about 4 to 8 degrees lower Friday afternoon than today. They should be low enough keep apparent temperatures/heat indices below Heat Advisory thresholds for most locations. A handful of place, especially in the River Valley, may briefly touch advisory criteria early to mid afternoon. Additionally, the dry air may help increase fire weather concerns slightly, with relative humidity values dropping into the 25 to 35 percent range. One limiting factor for higher fire weather concerns on Friday will be generally light to moderate winds, though a few gusts up to 20 mph will be possible in the afternoon along and north of I-44.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A slightly drier airmass will remain in place on Saturday. The pressure gradient will increase Friday night into Saturday as an area of surface low pressure develops and moves into the Plains/Midwest region, ahead of a slow-moving cold front. South/southwest winds will increase by late Saturday morning and into the afternoon. Periodic gusts 25 to 30 mph will be possible, specifically across northeast OK. This will create limited fire weather concerns across much of the area as minimum afternoon relative humidity values drop between 20 to 30 percent. Luckily, the highest wind speeds will remain across northeast OK and the lowest humidity values will occur across southeast OK/western AR and will not be collocated. However, given the hot temperatures, increased wind speeds, and dry airmass in place, wildfire safety precautions should be taken on Saturday.

Mid/upper-level ridging will begin to flatten Saturday evening/night as a shortwave trough moves over the Plains and a surface cold front progresses southward across the Plains. The slow-moving front eventually moves into northeast OK late Sunday night into Monday morning. There will be a small window of limited severe potential near and just ahead of the frontal boundary late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The highest severe threat will remain near the KS/OK border, with instability dropping off significantly south of the KS/OK border. Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will be the only concerns with storms. Latest NWP models show the front will slow down as it pushes across the southern half of our area on Monday. This will keep southeast OK and western AR unseasonably warm through at least Monday, with afternoon temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s. There is still some uncertainty how far south the cooler air will reach, even beyond Monday. Behind the cold front, temperatures will be much cooler, closer to or just slightly above average, with daytime highs in the mid 80s through the first half of the upcoming workweek. The front will bring a decent chance of rain/storms Sunday night and through Monday, with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall, but general amounts should stay below an inch for most locations. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will persist mid to late week, despite upper-level ridging trying to build back in.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Outside of any shower/thunderstorm impacts, VFR conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period for all sites. Ongoing convection will wind down through the evening with dry conditions expected overnight. Diurnal cu will develop again late Friday morning and afternoon with a few showers possible, mainly across NW AR sites. However, no mention was included in TAFs at this time due to low coverage/probability. Winds generally remain less than 10 kts through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 78 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 75 102 74 102 / 0 10 0 0 MLC 76 101 74 101 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 72 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 72 98 71 98 / 0 10 0 0 BYV 74 98 73 97 / 0 10 0 0 MKO 74 99 72 99 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 74 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 F10 74 99 72 99 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 74 99 72 99 / 10 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>058- 060>071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.