textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Another hard freeze expected tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

- A sharp warming trend starts Tuesday and continues through the end of the week. Well above average temperatures are expected by mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Light winds along with clear skies will lead to another widespread hard freeze for the entire forecast area tonight. Lows again will dip into the lower to mid 20s, with some upper teens in normally colder locations.

Dew points starting the day in the single digits indicative of the dry airmass in place. Dry return flow sets up Tuesday as the surface high slides southeast toward the Gulf coast and lee troughing reverses the gradient. While dew points should rise to some degree by afternoon, some model solutions struggle with this and as such, NBM dew points appear somewhat optimistic. With temps expected to warm into the upper 50s and low 60s, these lower dew points yield RH values potentially as low as 10-15% in parts of eastern OK, generally west of Highway 75, Coupled with south winds gusting 20-25 mph, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions can be expected. Per coolab with OUN will not issue a Red Flag warning at this time, however a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for most of the local forecast area, with emphasis on US 75 corridor westward.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A strong warming trend will continue through the end of the week as anomalously strong high pressure ridging aloft over the southern CONUS shifts more toward the east, with expanding thermal ridge. Fortunately wind speeds will be reduced during this time, but the much above normal temperatures and dry conditions will lead to limited fire weather conditions each afternoon. By Thursday and Friday, parts of eastern OK will approach 90 for daytime highs, and likely exceed 90 by the weekend. Cold front should knock temperatures back to above normal by Monday as opposed to near record.

Precipitation chances are minimal for the next 7 days, aside from a low (<20% chance of measurable) probability of a light shower across extreme NE OK or NW AR Tuesday night near the nose of a strengthening LLJ as indicated by some high-res model data.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South winds will gust to near 25 knots at times during the day Tuesday through Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 62 45 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 58 41 73 47 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 61 44 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 63 41 77 44 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 54 40 71 48 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 51 42 69 49 / 10 10 0 0 MKO 60 44 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 55 43 72 48 / 10 0 0 0 F10 63 45 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 60 42 72 47 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.