textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1046 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Light to moderate rain continues this afternoon across eastern Oklahoma. Rain chances decrease by late evening and tonight.

- Warming and predominantly dry conditions likely through this week.

- Additional rain chances forecast to arrive late this week and into next weekend, associated with an upper level storm system and cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1046 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Widespread light to moderate rain will continue this afternoon across portions of the area as an upper low navigates east along the Red River. Rainfall will be maximized across southeast Oklahoma with a sharp SW to NE gradient expected across northeast Oklahoma and Arkansas. Given dense cloudiness and ongoing precipitation, high temperatures are likely to be held in the 40s for a large chunk of E/SE OK. Areas in far NE OK and NW AR may still warm into the 50s, where cloud cover is less.

While light showers and/or drizzle will remain possible through this evening and early overnight, a drying trend is likely as the system departs. Low temperatures tonight will be heavily influenced by remaining cloud cover. Much of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas are likely to remain in the mid to upper 30s. However, far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas may once again fall to near or below freezing under mostly clear skies and rebuilding high pressure.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1046 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Despite another chilly morning on Tuesday, warming temperatures are likely through this week as upper ridging and southerly flow becomes re-established over the region. This will also tend to create breezy afternoon winds, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. A progressive upper level wave will pass through the central and northern plains on Wednesday. In response, a few light showers cannot be ruled out Wednesday night into Thursday across eastern Oklahoma, but otherwise the forecast remains dry for much of this week. High temperatures will continue to warm and, by Friday, most locations may exceed 70 degrees.

Attention then turns to a stronger system projected to impact the region next weekend. Latest trends suggest the upper system might track further north, though the vast majority of guidance still brings the associated cold front through the CWA. There is plenty of time for things to change, but the overall theme of increasing rain chances and potential for colder temperatures going into next week remains.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions will be predominant for this forecast. There is a small chance of sub-VFR vsbys in rain down at KMLC this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR cigs over E OK and portions of NW AR will scatter out tonight into Monday. Sfc winds will be a bit stronger over NW AR, but should stay blo impactful levels.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 52 36 59 36 / 60 0 0 0 FSM 56 36 60 35 / 30 0 0 0 MLC 47 37 59 34 / 100 50 0 0 BVO 53 30 59 31 / 40 0 0 0 FYV 57 28 59 29 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 54 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 50 34 59 35 / 60 10 0 0 MIO 57 32 59 36 / 20 0 0 0 F10 47 37 57 36 / 100 30 0 0 HHW 46 40 61 37 / 100 40 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.