textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Headline-worthy heat is expected to persist through the middle of the week. Cooler temperatures are expected to close out the week.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Storms may produce locally strong wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall.

- Localized fire weather concerns will exist through Wednesday due to the worsening drought.

- Late week rain/storm chances have also trended upward, with confidence increasing that a front will make a good southward push into the region.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Weakening convection is occurring across E KS and W MO early tonight as a shortwave trough navigates around the northeastern periphery of the upper level ridge. While a stray shower or two will remain possible in NE OK and NW AR during the overnight period, mostly dry conditions are favored through Monday morning. A weak boundary will be draped NW-SE across the FA Monday and another round of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms is forecast. Coverage is likely to be less than what occurred on Sunday as heights will be rising over our area, but CAMs suggest enough activity to warrant mentionable PoPs. HREF and REFS probabilities show highest thunder potential across SE OK and into the higher terrain of NW AR. Similar to Sunday, strong downburst wind gusts will again be a concern, with a couple marginally severe gusts not out of question. High temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler, but maximum heat indices will still climb to 105-109 degrees for much of the area. Thus, a Heat Advisory remains in effect from noon until 7 PM.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Upper level ridging moves directly overhead on Tuesday and high temperatures will hold steady or increase by a degree or two. Heat headlines are likely. A few showers or storms are possible again, but overall mostly dry conditions are expected. By Wednesday, the ridge center will move further east, then flatten, as strong troughing develops over the Upper Midwest. This will force a cold front southward toward the CWA during the day. Ahead of the front, strong heating is likely yet again with highs in the lower 100s for much of the area. Additional heat headlines are likely as heat index values remain in the 105-109 range.

Confidence is increasing that the front will then push into our area Wednesday evening into Thursday with increasing rain/thunder potential as well as cooling temperatures. Rain chances will linger into Friday before the front lifts back north with southerly flow returning. High temperatures Thursday through the end of the week are now expected to remain below 100 degrees areawide...though likely still several degrees above average. For some perspective, the average high in Tulsa this time of year is 87 and average highs for Fayetteville and Fort Smith are 83 and 88, respectively. Model solutions vary more significantly this weekend into the next, but present potential for one or more fronts to impact the area. This could bring additional rainfall and even cooler temperatures as we move into mid September. Summer has to end sometime...

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with the only exception being any thunderstorm influences. Overall thunderstorm coverage is forecast to be less than yesterday and any terminal impacts would likely be brief.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 101 80 101 81 / 20 0 10 0 FSM 103 74 104 73 / 20 10 10 10 MLC 102 77 102 77 / 20 10 20 10 BVO 102 74 102 75 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 100 71 101 73 / 20 10 10 0 BYV 97 70 100 73 / 20 10 10 0 MKO 101 75 101 75 / 20 10 10 0 MIO 100 75 100 76 / 20 10 0 0 F10 101 75 101 76 / 20 0 20 10 HHW 99 75 99 75 / 20 10 20 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-129-219-220-229.