textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 - Low potential for fog development late tonight into early Monday morning.

- Increased fire weather concerns return Monday through Thursday, with well above normal temperatures, low humidity, and windy conditions.

- Cooler temperatures and rain chances return late week into next weekend

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Clear skies and calm winds tonight will result in the potential for patchy fog development, especially across portions of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas where heavier rains fell on Saturday. Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.

The surface high quickly shifts eastward and southerly winds will increase Monday morning, with gusts near 30 mph possible during the afternoon hours. Clear skies will allow temperatures to respond accordingly as highs rise well above normal into the 70s for most locations. Fire weather concerns will become elevated for a time Monday afternoon, especially across drier portions of northeast Oklahoma that missed out on wetting rainfall. Afternoon humidity values look to remain well above 30 percent however, which should temper the threat somewhat.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Fire weather will continue to be the primary concern through much of the week. South winds will once again be gusty on Tuesday, with the potential for the strongest winds of the period Tuesday afternoon. ONe inhibiting factor will be widespread mid to high level cloud cover forecast to spread over the region throughout the day Tuesday. This should inhibit full mixing and keep winds and temperatures from reaching their full potential. Humidity values remain well above 30 percent during the afternoon as well on Tuesday. But, elevated fire danger conditions are still expected Tuesday afternoon as winds gust in the 35 mph range and fine fuels dry out.

A surface trough will pass through the region on Wednesday, allowing drier air to filter into the region...dropping humidity values into the 15 to 25 percent range for Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Winds look to be not as strong on those days, but still breezy conditions will keep elevated fire danger mention in the forecast through Thursday afternoon.

A cold front if expected to move through late Thursday or Thursday night, bringing a return to cooler, near normal conditions for late week. A reinforcing front over the weekend should keep temps near to below normal through the weekend. Low rain/thunder chances will also re-enter the forecast Friday into Saturday. Severe weather is not expected and overall rain amounts look to remain fairly light at this point.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will continue at all forecast sites through late tonight with a few high clouds passing through the area and calm to very light winds. Late tonight, there is low potential for patchy fog sern OK and nwrn AR sites, which will continue into mid morning Monday. A few low clouds may accompany the fog, especially MLC/FSM areas. South wind becomes gusty most sites by late Monday morning as lee cyclogenesis occurs over the High Plains and corresponding pressure gradient across ern OK and nwnr AR tightens.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 43 75 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 41 74 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 42 72 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 38 75 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 39 71 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 39 71 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 41 72 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 41 72 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 F10 41 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 41 70 50 71 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.