textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 851 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Windy with isolated to scattered showers and storms through this evening. Limited severe risk.

- Numerous showers and storms Tuesday morning into NE OK spreading southward through early afternoon. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

- Cooler temperatures Wednesday-Friday with continued low rain chances through the remainder of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 851 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Updated pops for late tonight and Tuesday morning to reflect a bit faster movement of the convective line into and through the forecast area. The main severe weather threat in our area will likely be damaging winds, with the greatest severe weather threat near the Kansas border after midnight tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Moist and unstable southerly flow remains in place across the area. Modest lift within the warm advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere is and will continue to result in isolated to scattered showers and storms the next few hours, particularly in far northeast OK and northwest AR. These storms will mostly stay sub severe, but some marginally severe hail is possible in the stronger storms. A few CAMs suggest storms could form along the dry line in western Oklahoma this afternoon, with storms then moving east into the forecast area, though this remains the less likely outcome. If these dry line storms did develop, these storms would have the potential to be severe. Otherwise, warm, humid, and windy conditions will persist through the day with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s.

Near the tail end of the overnight hours a cold front will move into northeast OK. CAMs disagree on the storm details, but the most probable outcome is for a line of storms to be present along the front. Significant severe weather may occur north of the area, but the expectation is that the storms will be weakening at least somewhat as they approach the area. There are several reasons for this, including relatively weak upper level forcing and weak flow. Still, there will be a threat for strong damaging winds and an isolated tornadic spin up, particularly as storms first enter from Kansas. Areas of heavy rainfall may occur as the storms move through.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Near dawn on Tuesday the line of storms will be moving through northeast OK, continuing southeast through the early afternoon before exiting the area. Wind shear will remain unimpressive, but there will be sufficient instability with daytime heating for a few storms to become severe. Large hail and strong gusty winds will be the main hazards, with a lesser tornado threat. Behind the cold front temperatures will quickly cool with much drier air.

Most guidance is producing a renewal of showers and possibly a thunderstorm north of I-40 Tuesday evening. This will occur along an elevated frontal boundary remaining over the area. Wednesday will be cool and quiet outside of a few showers lingering for southeast OK and northwest AR. Highs will only reach the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps even upper 60s in some spots. Lows will be in the lower 60s and upper 50s.

A shortwave trough will dive into the area from the northwest Thursday to Friday, interacting with some remnant troughing across the desert Southwest. This will result in an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. With modest but sustained forcing, high PWAT, and a deep layer of minimal CAPE, this will be a good setup for several rounds of moderate rain, with only minimal severe weather risk.

Over the weekend and into early next week it gets a little more uncertain, as models aren't confident on whether we get a short term break and warm up and dry out a bit, or if the remnant southwest troughing will keep shower activity going. Either way, if there is a break, it will be short lived with another storm cycle likely into the middle of next week. Overall, it appears somewhat cooler and wetter weather will be here to stay for a while.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this evening, with LLWS at all sites until the arrival of a cold front late tonight and Tuesday morning. A line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany the cold front, with reduced ceilings and visibilities and gusty winds. Gusty south winds ahead of the cold front will become north Tuesday, with gusts up to 20 knots through the day. MVFR ceilings will prevail through the day Tuesday following the passage of the cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 67 75 58 71 / 70 70 80 40 FSM 72 84 65 80 / 10 90 70 70 MLC 73 82 61 77 / 10 80 70 50 BVO 61 71 53 69 / 80 40 60 20 FYV 72 80 60 74 / 30 80 80 60 BYV 72 81 59 70 / 30 90 90 60 MKO 71 78 59 73 / 30 90 70 50 MIO 67 74 56 68 / 70 80 70 30 F10 70 78 58 73 / 30 80 70 50 HHW 73 81 65 79 / 10 90 60 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>064-067-154- 254-354.

AR...None.