textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- An extended period of hot and dry weather will persist through at least the first week of September. Daily heat headlines are likely.

- Rain chances look very low through the forecast period.

- The ongoing drought situation will continue to worsen. Localized fire weather concerns will develop each day.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Light to moderate southerly winds overnight tonight will continue to advect in warm temperatures and low-level moisture into the region. Thus, temperatures will remain above average across the district through the night, bottoming out in the lower to middle 70s for most locations.

Another abnormally hot day is in store on Sunday as the center of a strong upper level ridge shifts from the Southern High Plains and directly over the CWA by the afternoon. Closer to the surface, thermal ridging will strengthen across the High Plains as diurnal heating occurs in the afternoon. In response, the surface pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will increase, becoming breeziest along and north of I-44 by mid-afternoon or so. The biggest challenge in the short-term, and likely continuing in the long-term period, will be determining how much mixing and exactly when mixing occurs during the afternoon period. Given the strength and position of the upper-level ridge on Sunday, and the fact a few locations briefly reached Heat Advisory criteria on Saturday, confidence is fairly high Heat Advisory- level conditions will be met, for at least a few hours, for portions of northeast OK on Sunday...specifically along and north of I-44. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for parts of northeast OK from noon until 8 PM.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Focus in the long-term will continue to be on the dangerous heat building into the area, the growing drought conditions, and the increasing fire weather concerns. Heat headlines will likely be needed for at least portions of the forecast area almost each day through the long-term period.

Broad upper-level ridging will overspread much of the central and southern CONUS through next week and into next weekend. Mesoscale boundaries and upper-level troughs, that could potentially bring cooler temperatures and meaningful rainfall, will stay well away from the forecast area for the foreseeable future. As southerly winds continue to advect low-level moisture into the region over the next several days, dewpoints will continue to rise each day. Guidance even suggests there could be enough low-level moisture for brief, diurnally-driven showers and storms, especially in the high terrain areas of the forecast area, beginning mid to late next week. Otherwise, rainfall looks unlikely until possibly the end of the workweek and into next weekend when the upper-level ridge shifts west of the area again. But at this time, forecast confidence is very low with regards to the next best chance of rain.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all sites. South winds increase this afternoon, especially across NE OK, with gusts near 20 kts expected. LLWS is forecast again tonight for KBVO as the nocturnal jet strengthens across N-Central OK. Afternoon cu development is expected over much of the area today, in addition to FEW to SCT high clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 102 79 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 102 74 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 101 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 102 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 98 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 97 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 100 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 100 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 F10 101 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 99 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>057-059>062-064-067-154-254-354.

AR...None.