textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Temperatures warm above normal for the rest of this week through the weekend.

- Low to medium rain chances (20-40%) east on Wednesday night and Thursday morning as a front passes, otherwise dry weather prevails.

- Limited to locally elevated fire weather potential Thursday and into this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1039 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Breezy south winds Tuesday will aid in continuing the warming trend, with afternoon high temperatures warming well into the 50s despite considerable high level cloudiness.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1039 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A weak frontal boundary will approach the area late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning before it washes out. As winds diminish near this boundary, the potential will exist for some fog development across parts of northeast Oklahoma. Confidence in visibilities below one mile remains low, so will not mention fog in the forecast at this time, but this will continue to be monitored. Low cloudiness will also advect north across the area Wednesday morning as stronger south winds return, and the cloudiness and/or fog will help keep temperatures in check. It is possible that the forecast high temperatures Wednesday may be a bit optimistic.

A strong upper level storm system will move across the northern U.S. Wednesday night, and an associated cold front will sweep quickly across our area Thursday morning. Temperatures will remain very mild Wednesday night ahead of the front with south winds persisting, and a few showers may develop mainly across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Winds will shift to northwest and become gusty following the frontal passage Thursday morning, with showers ending and skies clearing. Despite the clearing skies, temperatures will only rise a few degrees during the day. Fire weather concerns will increase markedly Thursday as relative humidity values quickly fall during the day.

Thursday night will be chilly, but a quick return to south winds and warmer temperatures will occur Friday. Saturday looks like the warmest day of this forecast period ahead of another cold front that will move across the area Saturday night. Temperatures behind this front will remain relatively mild by December standards, and a trend towards unseasonably warm temperatures may develop the following week leading into the Christmas holiday. Mainly dry weather will continue, so fire weather will remain a concern this weekend and beyond.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

LLWS conditions exist across E OK and far NW AR this morning and this was added to those TAFs through 15Z or 16Z. Low end VFR cigs exist from SE OK into NW AR and should scatter out later today as high cloud increases. The forecast will begin to get complicated by late tonight into Wednesday as short-term models forecast the overspread of MVFR cigs from the south in a low level moisture return regime, while potential fog develops across portions of NE OK outside of the higher cloud canopy. For now, started to hint at fog development at KBVO, KTUL and KRVS late tonight while other sites are more likely to see low cloud instead of fog. Details will be refined in future forecasts.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 55 35 59 49 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 56 39 59 52 / 0 0 0 40 MLC 57 39 61 52 / 0 0 0 20 BVO 55 30 58 44 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 54 37 58 49 / 0 0 0 30 BYV 56 38 60 50 / 0 0 0 30 MKO 56 38 60 52 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 53 34 58 47 / 0 0 0 20 F10 57 38 60 50 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 56 41 60 54 / 0 0 10 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.