textproduct: Tulsa
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 644 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
- Temperatures drop enough tonight and Saturday night to support some frost development across portions of NE OK and NW AR.
- A steady warming trend is forecast next week, with temps climbing to around 10 degrees above average for this time of year by the end of the week.
- Dry weather is expected this weekend into much of next week. Low rain chances return by next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Through Saturday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
The surface ridge axis is expected to lie from eastern KS to western OK at 12Z. Lower clouds across SW MO and NW AR now appear that they will clear out by morning, but this area will be a bit more displaced from the surface ridge and should maintain some north wind through the night. The area across far NE OK close to the KS border and beneath the surface ridge axis to the north and west of Tulsa will be the most favorable area for frost development by daybreak Saturday morning. After a cool start, it will be a Chamber of Commerce day across the region for your Saturday. Light winds, lots of sun and highs in the 60s.
Lacy
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
By Saturday night, the surface ridge axis will have shifted east and will lie from the Ozarks back into far eastern OK. Conditions appear favorable again toward daybreak Sunday morning for patchy frost in the valleys of NW AR and far NE OK.
A steady warming trend is forecast next week, with ridging aloft prevailing over the central part of the country. Highs return to the 80s again by Wednesday and rise to the mid 80s toward the end of the week.
An upper trough is expected to develop near the West Coast early next week but will take its time moving east toward the Plains. Current expectations are for a dry forecast next week with low rain chances by next weekend.
Lacy
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 61 40 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 68 42 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 64 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 61 33 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 64 35 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 63 39 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 63 39 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 61 38 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 F10 62 38 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 68 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ055-059-154- 254-354.
AR...None.
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