textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1201 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 - There is a limited severe weather risk Friday in association with a front/outflow boundary.

- An unsettled weather pattern sets in by late in the weekend and continues into next week. Multiple opportunities for thunderstorms, along with some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall potential will exist during this time.

- A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday evening) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A milder night is in store tonight with higher dewpoints in place compared to the previous couple of nights.

A cluster of storms over northern KS that initiated along a quasi- stationary transitioning to cold frontal boundary will spread southeast as the front gets a shove to the south tonight by high pressure over the Midwest. The latest CAMs suggest outflow from these storms will push south into the forecast area Friday morning, and will be the focus for additional showers and storms, both during the morning and again in the afternoon, mainly across NE OK and possibly far NW AR. The 00Z HRRR also suggests some development on the synoptic front over southern KS as well. Surface CAPEs to around 2k j/kg as moisture pools near the boundary will support some potential for at least briefly severe storms. NWrly deep layer shear will not be particularly strong at 20 to 30 kts, suggesting any storms that develop will not be well organized. Storms may be slow- moving as well, and would be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Storms should die off with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening, though there is a chance that if enough storms develop and reinforce the outflow that some activity may push as far south as the I-40 corridor before dissipating Friday evening. Made adjustments to the model blend (NBM) PoPs again for Friday afternoon, confining them more across the north closer to the boundaries.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

The front/outflow will retreat back north Saturday morning, and the remainder of the day is expected to be relatively quiet with low afternoon shower/storm chances. South winds will increase and become a little gusty by afternoon. The beginning of a period of unsettled weather begins late Saturday night with increasing rain/storm chances from the west. A subtle wave/mid level jet streak embedded within strengthening southwest flow aloft is expected to bring a band of showers and some storms across the region Sunday. This signal has been consistent in the global models over multiple runs, justifying the higher PoPs. The timing of this activity will probably limit severe potential for most areas, though some uptick is possible across NW AR and SE OK where activity will be during the afternoon. The models also show pockets of locally heavy rain potential as well. While the environment would support severe weather on Monday as well, storm coverage is uncertain in the wake of the preceding wave and with shortwave ridging sliding overhead. A warm and windy day is likely to prevail.

A wave over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to strengthen as it dives equator-ward over the next couple days, kicking the current weaker system off the coast of California inland. This system will then evolve into a strong and more progressive shortwave trough over the Southwest by early next week and then eject into the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly in a couple of pieces. While details such as timing, surface feature placement, etc. will be ironed out in the coming days, there is enough support for this idea from the global models and ensemble data to suggest there will probably be a window for higher-end severe weather potential during this time frame.

There should be at least a brief period of more tranquil weather Thursday and Friday before active weather returns for the following weekend.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Outflow from storms in Kansas is expected to work south into NE OK and NW AR this morning, with increasing mid/high clouds and shower and thunderstorm potential. NE OK sites will see the best potential for precipitation this morning. Redevelopment is expected this afternoon along this boundary across NE OK and NW AR, with more isolated precip possible as far south as MLC. Cigs may drop into MVFR category across NE OK sites for a few hours this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the period outside of any thunderstorm activity. Predominantly southerly winds are likely for much of the region, becoming more variable near the boundary in NE OK/NW AR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 80 61 81 64 / 50 30 30 50 FSM 83 59 85 64 / 30 20 20 10 MLC 81 61 82 65 / 20 20 20 40 BVO 77 56 81 61 / 70 40 30 60 FYV 80 55 81 63 / 40 30 20 10 BYV 78 58 81 65 / 60 30 20 0 MKO 80 59 82 63 / 30 30 20 30 MIO 75 59 81 63 / 70 40 30 30 F10 81 60 82 63 / 30 20 30 50 HHW 80 59 81 63 / 10 10 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.