textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026 - Record or near record warmth expected Monday with limited fire weather concerns.

- Pattern becomes more active this week with rain chances mainly in the east and south Tuesday and again late in the week over the entire area.

- A cold front will bring cooler weather starting Tuesday in the north and areawide by Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Some very light measurable rainfall (no more than a couple hundredths) was reported in the Tulsa area and points west and east from there in association with a passing wave aloft. Clouds will be on the decrease this afternoon and into the evening in the wake of this feature. Light winds and clearing skies suggest this should be a good night for radiational cooling. Continued to favor the colder side of the guidance envelope, leaning toward CONSMOS and the lower quartile of the model blend (NBM) probabilistic spread for overnight lows. There are hints in the HRRR, HREF and EC of some fog developing mainly to the east of highway 75 and also down near the Red River around daybreak Monday morning. Inserted mention of patchy fog into the grids.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Shortwave ridging aloft slides overhead on Monday ahead of an approaching storm system from the Southwest. High clouds will be on the increase from the south, but may be too late and not thick enough to hold temps back much. Southerly winds and an expanding LLTR will lead to forecast highs that are on the order of 15 to 20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. As a result, record or near record warmth is forecast Monday.

Some weather changes arrive by Tuesday. A cold front will be pushing into the region from the north in association with a passing wave in the northern stream. The tail end of the latest synoptic run of the HRRR and the NAM12 both show strong gusty north winds behind this front late Monday night into Tuesday. The southward progress of the front may tend to slow during the day, such that a sharp north-south gradient in highs is likely by Tuesday afternoon across the forecast area. Used the cooler CONSRaw from roughly I-44 northward and the NBM south of the front. Meanwhile, moisture and lift will be increasing in advance of an ejecting southern stream wave from the Southwest. Shower chances increase by the afternoon and especially into the evening mainly on the warm side of the southward-moving front from SE OK into W AR. Instability looks meager and have thus removed thunder probs.

Rain chances end by early Wednesday and cooler temps are forecast areawide behind the aforementioned front. This front either washes out or retreats back north Thursday, and forecast highs rebound back to well above average levels.

The next storm system approaches from the Southwest by late in the week and will interact with another front dropping down into the region to yield likely rain chances across the forecast area.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the period, though there is at least low potential for fog development late tonight and Monday morning, particularly across NW AR sites. Have maintained TEMPO groups for these sites, as well as KMLC. Fog potential is also possible for NE OK sites, but did not include mention in the TAF at this time due to lower probability. Otherwise, FEW to SCT mid and high cloud will erode this evening with mostly clear skies through the period. Winds remain light and variable overnight, becoming southerly Monday morning/ afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 38 79 54 69 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 40 79 52 77 / 0 0 0 20 MLC 41 82 57 75 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 32 79 45 63 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 33 77 52 72 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 39 76 53 72 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 38 78 55 75 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 36 74 51 68 / 0 0 0 10 F10 41 80 57 75 / 0 0 0 20 HHW 43 77 57 75 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.