textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1048 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

- High confidence of above average temperatures through Thursday.

- Moderate to heavy rain and isolated thunder chances beginning Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday with approaching storm system. Limited severe weather potential.

- Colder temperatures this weekend into next week with dry conditions expected.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Drier air has filtered in across most of the region in the wake of a weak boundary that moved through the area Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 30s areawide tonight into Wednesday morning underneath some passing high clouds. Calm winds and subtle surface ridging could also lead to some isolated fog formation early Wednesday morning, primarily across far eastern Oklahoma and through the Arkansas River Valley. Fog is not expected to be near as widespread has Tuesday morning owing to the drier air in place.

After any fog clears, another warm day is in store with well above average temperatures for early January. Southerly winds will return as Lee troughing ensues in advance of an approaching upper low currently moving on shore the Southern California Coast. Highs will once again peak in the upper 60s to lower 70s with some high to mid level cloud cover keeping temps a couple degrees below Tuesday's values. The breezy winds (gusts to 25 mph) along with relatively drier air and warm temps will also raise fire concerns somewhat Wednesday afternoon along and west of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Rain chances increase as we head into Wednesday night as lift associated with the approaching upper low begins to spread over the region. Low level moisture will increase fairly rapidly Wednesday night as a deepening surface low tracks east northeast across southern ansas.Mostly light to moderate showers should increase in coverage late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, generally from I-40 northward. An increase in elevated instability could lead to a few thunderstorms toward sunrise Thursday, mainly across portions of northeast Oklahoma.

A lull in activity is likely into the mid morning hours Thursday with the potential for some light rain showers to linger. The upper wave will then take on a negative tilt and lift northeast across Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is progged to develop by mid to late morning across central Oklahoma and move northeastward into the early afternoon. Forecast soundings show very limited instability, mostly elevated in nature, over the region owing to the widespread cloud cover and earlier rain showers. Nevertheless, the shear will be quite strong and could support a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. If any surface based instability can develop, we will have to watch for some tornado potential given the low level shear values as the trough moves through. PWAT values near the seasonal max would support potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially where more convective activity occurs. Highest potential will be from I-44 northward across northeastern Oklahoma. Any impacts from heavy rain should be limited given the recent dry stretch, but isolated flash flood impacts cannot be ruled out, especially in more urban areas. Areawide rain totals continue to trend down, especially south of I-40, as the system looks to track further north. Still, widespread 0.5 to locally 1.5 inches of rain will be possible for points near and north of I-44, with totals gradually dying off the further south you get.

The bulk of the activity should shift north and east by late afternoon. A few showers or storms could linger into Thursday evening as the system departs the area and a cold front pushes into northeast Oklahoma. The front will bring temperatures back down closer to normal values for Friday afternoon across the northern half of the forecast area while continued warm conditions could return across the south as the boundary washes out/lifts back northward due to Lee troughing in advance of the next system. This shortwave and associated surface low will track across the Southern Plains Friday afternoon and Friday night and could bring a few light rain or snow showers near the Kansas border. Limited moisture will inhibit the intensity and impact of anything that can develop, but some flakes could be flying late Friday night. Generally northwesterly to westerly flow aloft will settle over the region through the rest of the forecast period with dry conditions and near to slightly above normal temperatures prevailing into the middle part of next week.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 821 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Scattered mid to high clouds will continue through the overnight hours. A few areas of fog are possible, especially for northwest Arkansas near dawn, but the probabilities seem lower than earlier guidance had been indicating. Any fog will quickly clear after sunrise. Light northwesterly winds tonight will shift to breezy southerly by Wednesday morning. Ceilings will begin to develop and lower Wednesday afternoon and evening in advance of a storm system but will remain VFR through the current TAF period. A few sprinkles could begin to develop near the end of the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 40 71 55 71 / 0 0 50 80 FSM 40 71 52 73 / 0 0 30 60 MLC 39 72 58 75 / 0 0 30 60 BVO 34 69 51 69 / 0 0 60 90 FYV 38 68 54 70 / 0 0 30 70 BYV 40 68 52 68 / 0 0 20 70 MKO 39 71 54 71 / 0 0 40 80 MIO 37 69 53 68 / 0 0 50 80 F10 40 72 56 72 / 0 0 40 80 HHW 41 73 56 73 / 0 0 20 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.