textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Saturday primarily north of Interstate 40.

- Rain chances expand in coverage Saturday night through Sunday with overall rainfall amounts remaining light. Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Uncertainty increases for mid week storm system but overall pattern would favor increasing rain chances with potential for meaningful rainfall amounts over a larger area.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Weak vort max moves into northeast Oklahoma late Friday night/early Saturday morning, and makes its way eastward through the CWA during the day Saturday. Rain chances along with slight to low end chance potential for thunder spreads across mainly northeast Oklahoma through the day Saturday. The greater potential is expected through the morning hours before weakening during the afternoon hours. Potential for thunder Friday night into Saturday is dependent on how far east the instability axis can expand into the CWA. Latest thinking is for low thunder potential mainly along and west of Highway 75 into early Saturday morning. During the day Saturday, a bulge in the eastern periphery of the instability axis looks to develop with the movement of the vort max, allowing for a slight chance of thunder over more of northeast Oklahoma. Overall rainfall amounts with this activity are anticipated to be light for most locations.

As the vort max moves into and through the CWA, cloud cover expands across the CWA, especially north of Interstate 40. This should keep afternoon temps in the 80s, while low/mid 90s are forecast south of the rain chances across southeast Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Additional rain and storm chances move back into northeast Oklahoma Saturday evening, and then expands over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Saturday night/Sunday as a weak shortwave moves east/southeast across the region. At this time, rainfall looks to be light for most locations through Sunday. Temps Sunday are forecast to warm into the 80s with low/mid 90s outside of the main rain chances in southeast Oklahoma.

A surface boundary is progged to set up over southeast Oklahoma Sunday night and then near the Red River for Monday. A slight chance of showers and storms remain possible within the vicinity of this boundary through Monday afternoon. Thus will continue with slight chance PoPs for parts of southeast Oklahoma Sunday night and Monday. Severe weather this weekend into Monday is not expected with the greater instability residing west of the CWA.

Beyond Monday, uncertainties continue with a low pressure system moving into the Desert Southwest Monday/Tuesday and merging with the remnants of tropical system Polo Tuesday/Wednesday. Latest model solutions indicate the combination of these two features lifting into the Plains mid through late next week with the main differences being timing, strength and location of features. Either way, with low level moisture streaming into the Plains ahead of the waves, the potential remains for a heavy rain threat as well as limited severe potentials Tuesday through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may impact the northeast Oklahoma sites from time to time, possibly spreading into the far northwest Arkansas sites by Saturday evening. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any heavier downpours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 86 66 88 66 / 50 80 40 10 FSM 90 68 89 68 / 10 60 50 20 MLC 92 68 92 68 / 10 50 40 20 BVO 84 64 85 63 / 60 80 40 10 FYV 86 64 86 63 / 10 80 50 20 BYV 85 65 84 66 / 10 60 50 20 MKO 88 65 89 66 / 20 80 50 20 MIO 83 66 83 66 / 30 80 30 10 F10 88 65 91 65 / 20 60 50 20 HHW 93 67 94 69 / 0 20 30 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.