textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday morning. Light mixed wintry precipitation is expected for some areas Monday into Monday night. There is a low to medium chance for minor impacts, mainly in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR.

- Temperatures warm somewhat through Wednesday before another potent cold front arrives Wednesday night.

- A storm system could bring potential for more wintry precipitation toward the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Clouds will be on the increase across the region from west to east by this evening. Increasing warm advection aloft will bring a low chance for rain down near the Red River by early morning.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

An upper storm system, denoted clearly on WV imagery over UT/NV, will drop down into the Four Corners and then east into the Plains on Monday. Ahead of the system, increasing warm advection aloft could result in spotty light precipitation across much of E OK into NW AR during the day, as indicated in the CAMs. Model soundings suggest that cloud ice will be lacking ahead of the upper wave, leaning toward liquid to be the dominant type if precip does eventually fight through the lower level dry air. Forecast surface temps near freezing across portions of NE OK, NW AR and the terrain of SE OK would result in the potential for icing and travel impact, as it takes very little ice to cause problems. An advisory may be needed over much of the region if the worst case scenario plays out. However, confidence in amounts/impacts warrants holding off on headline issuance for now. Relatively higher QPF potential from SE OK into W-central AR still points to relatively higher icing potential mainly in the terrain areas, with the latest forecast of a tenth of an inch or so along the ridge tops.

A band of light to moderate snow is expected as the upper wave grazes across NE OK and NW AR during the afternoon and evening. Snow accumulations are expected to be pretty light (dusting) and confined mainly closer to the KS and MO borders. Precipitation should come to a quick end from west to east Monday evening.

Quiet weather and warming temps can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday before another strong cold front pushes through Wednesday night. A storm system approaching the region from the southwest during the latter part of the week could bring the potential for more wintry weather, but confidence in the details is low at this point.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Mid level cloud cover will continue to stream over the region through tonight, with cigs remaining VFR through tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds will generally stay light through the period, becoming more easterly overnight tonight before switching back more northerly to northwesterly by later in the period across NE OK sites as a weak boundary pushes into the area. The main impact through the period will be the potential for light wintry precipitation beginning tomorrow morning through the early evening hours. Better chances will be across NW AR sites where initially, forecast soundings suggest rain or freezing rain/drizzle will be the primary precip type. Further south, rain will be more dominant. Low level dry air will likely prevent much precip reaching the ground in the morning across NE OK. A band of snow could develop by late afternoon over NE OK and could impact those terminals briefly late Monday afternoon. Overall precipitation looks to be light and spotty, but impacts could be experienced where heavier freezing rain or drizzle develop Monday morning. Marginal surface temperatures will contribute to a lack in confidence of more widespread impacts for area terminals. Cigs and vsby should generally remain VFR, with some brief periods of MVFR conditions within heavier precipitation.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 27 35 21 46 / 10 30 10 0 FSM 30 37 25 45 / 10 40 30 0 MLC 29 39 22 48 / 10 30 20 0 BVO 23 34 18 46 / 10 30 0 0 FYV 25 36 20 43 / 10 40 30 0 BYV 25 32 21 41 / 10 40 30 0 MKO 28 36 21 46 / 10 30 20 0 MIO 25 33 19 42 / 10 40 20 0 F10 28 37 20 47 / 10 20 10 0 HHW 31 37 24 46 / 20 50 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.