textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 455 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Overall quiet weather will persist through the next week.

- Above average temperatures will return and persist through the first part of the week. A cold front will drop temperatures back near normal to close out the week.

- Fire weather concerns increase as temps climb and winds increase over the next couple of days. Concerns will remain raised on Wednesday due to gusty winds behind a dry frontal passage.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

The surface high has slipped southeast of the area this morning allowing a return to southwesterly winds. Periodic gusts of 20-25 mph will be possible through the day as some enhanced flow aloft mixes to the surface under abundant sunshine. An expanding low level thermal ridge will allow temperatures to warm a good 15 to 20 degrees above yesterday's highs, with highs topping out largely in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Continued southwesterly winds will keep overnight lows seasonably mild tonight, dropping into the upper 30s for most locations, while the usually colder valley locations will drop to near freezing overnight.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

The steady warming trend will last into Tuesday as low level southwesterly downslope flow intensifies over the region. Temperatures will push a few degrees higher on Tuesday as mostly clear skies continue. Will lean toward the warmer side of guidance with highs approaching 70 across a good chunk of the area Tuesday afternoon. Winds will become more gusty on Tuesday, which combined with the warm temps and dry air in place will raise fire weather concerns, especially along and west of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma.

The large scale pattern will remain largely unchanged through the next week with ridging holding strong over the Pacific Coast and deep troughing over the eastern CONUS. More amplified northerly flow aloft will take shape toward the middle part of the week as a shortwave drops southeast through the Plains along the western edge of the parent trough. This will push a frontal boundary through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture remains limited with this system, but guidance does continue to indicate strong enough frontogenetical forcing to force a band of very light shower or sprinkles along the boundary. This band could clip portions of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early Wednesday morning. Any amounts will be lights, generally only a few hundredths of an inch or less. Gusty northerly winds and noticeably cooler temperatures will follow the front on Wednesday as temps drop back near normal for mid January. Fire conditions will once again be elevated somewhat on Wednesday owing to the gusty winds and dry conditions.

Near normal conditions will follow for Thursday and Friday as well, as another weak boundary pushes through the region on Friday morning. Another stronger shortwave will dive south through the Plains on Saturday, bringing a reinforcing shot of Canadian air into the region for the weekend. Temps have trended a little colder with this frontal passage with a period of below normal temps looking more likely for Saturday and Sunday. Again, limited moisture looks to keeps this frontal passage mostly dry outside of some sprinkles or flurries Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The highly progressive pattern looks to continue into next week with a warming trend into the first part of the week ahead of another front slated for Monday night into Tuesday of next week.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 455 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A light southwest wind overnight will become more gusty after mid-morning on Tuesday. Wind gusts 15 to 20 kts are forecast at all TAF sites except KBVO, where winds are expected to be lighter. Winds will taper off toward sunset tomorrow evening.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 38 67 42 51 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 35 68 43 54 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 37 70 44 54 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 32 68 39 50 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 38 66 40 48 / 0 0 10 10 BYV 42 67 41 45 / 0 0 20 10 MKO 37 68 43 52 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 36 65 41 47 / 0 0 20 0 F10 37 69 44 53 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 35 66 41 56 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.