textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- An extended period of hot and dry weather will persist through the next week. Heat headlines are expected at times.

- Rain chances look very low through the forecast period.

- The ongoing drought situation will continue to worsen. Localized fire weather concerns will develop each day.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Weather conditions on Monday will be almost a carbon copy of Sunday...above average temperatures and slightly breezy afternoon winds. The subtropical ridge axis will shift eastward over the Mid Mississippi Valley by the afternoon. Despite this, the ridge will still remain the primary influence of sensible conditions for the area. As such, anticipate triple digit temperatures for most locations again Monday afternoon, warmest temperatures along and west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma and through the Arkansas River Valley. Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of northeast OK and west-central AR from noon until 8 PM Monday. Although the surface pressure gradient does not look quite as strong on Monday, wind speeds and gusts will be strong enough for at least some fire weather concerns, especially for portions of northeast OK and far northwest AR where winds will be breeziest during peak heating hours. Precipitation chances remain near zero.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The sweltering heat and rain-free weather will persist through at least mid week, with both global models and ensembles keeping upper-level ridging the main weather influence for the area. Expect daily high temperatures generally in the upper 90s and lower 100s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s most nights through next weekend. And although afternoon minimum relative humidity values wont be quite as low as late winter or early spring numbers, the growing drought and drying fuels will cause at least some fire weather concerns each day through the long-term period.

Deterministic model solutions and ensembles begin to diverge by the end of the week and into the Labor Day weekend. It still looks like the ridge will be the main influence to our weather, but the position and strength of the ridge is uncertain at this time. Deterministic GFS shows the ridge flattening out and migrating eastward over the Southeast CONUS. Meanwhile the ECMWF suggests ridging strengthens over the Plains this weekend, maintaining oppressively hot temperatures and keeping things rain-free. If the GFS solution were to pan out, there could be low chances of diurnally-driven showers and storms that develop on periphery of the ridge, specifically the southeastern half of forecast area late in the week and next weekend. It is a wait and see for now. The overall forecast confidence of rainfall through the long-term remains low.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period for all sites. South-southwest winds increase late this morning and afternoon, with gusts between 15 and 20 kts possible, particularly across NE OK. A mix of mid and high level clouds are expected today/tonight with dry weather continuing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 102 77 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 103 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 102 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 102 73 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 101 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 99 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 101 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 100 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 F10 101 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 101 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055-056-060>062-067-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.