textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Above average warmth and dry weather will prevail into early next week.

- Fire weather concerns will increase early next week as stronger south winds return.

- Confidence is increasing that some unsettled weather will occur toward the middle of next week, possibly lingering into the latter half of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

An area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere (~250mb) over north TX is managing to throw a few high clouds up into far SE OK. Aside from that, sunny skies and above average temps are the rule.

A weak surface ridge axis over AR and far eastern OK will stay in place through tonight. The longer nights, relatively low dewpoints and light winds will yield cooler overnight lows than much of the guidance. The forecast will favor the clustering of MOS solutions toward the very bottom of the guidance envelope.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

One more day of lighter winds, above average warmth and a cool night is coming up for Saturday as the surface reflection of Isaias passes to our east. As we head into early next week, the pattern begins to change. An upper trough moves into the western CONUS, with downstream ridging aloft over the Plains. At the surface, lee side low pressure will expand and strengthen, and south winds will ramp up as a result. The stronger winds, above average warm temps and continued dry weather will yield increasing fire weather concerns, especially across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Sunday and Monday.

By Tuesday, models bring a shallow cold front south across KS and MO and stall the boundary close to the state lines Tuesday night before retreating north. Other solutions have this front gradually sagging south ahead of the southwest CONUS upper trough, with expanding storm coverage over the northern forecast area.

The new 12Z GFS has come more in line with the faster 00Z EC regarding timing of the ejecting southwest CONUS upper trough into the Plains. This also agreed with the bulk of the multi-model ensemble solutions. As such, the timing appears favorable for showers and storms to develop to our west Wednesday and sweep east into our area by Wednesday night. Some of these storms could be severe. Storms will probably linger over southern and eastern areas Thursday along the trailing front before the front clears the area to the south and east by the end of the week.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period for all sites with clear skies and light south-southeast winds.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 61 90 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 58 90 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 58 90 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 56 89 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 55 88 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 57 85 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 59 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 59 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 F10 59 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 59 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.