textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Thunderstorm chances return Saturday with medium confidence in exact placement and coverage.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times.

- While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 36 hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The rest of the ongoing overnight period should be on the quieter side, with the afternoon and evening storms having diminished with sunset. Overnight lows should be in the low to mid 70s in most areas, with areas near the Kansas border and in far northwest Arkansas dipping into the 60s.

The forecast for Saturday remains somewhat in question, with concerns revolving around how much thunderstorm coverage occurs tomorrow and how far south. Most of the CAMs and some of the synoptic models are largely in agreement that a thunderstorm complex will develop to the north and push southward into northeast Oklahoma mid to late morning tomorrow as a mid level disturbance drops southward through the area. If this occurs as expected, this would likely push the afternoon thunderstorm potential into areas near and south of I-40. This is the idea that will be featured in this evening/s forecast. With these expectations, areas along and south of I-40 should be hot once again, with potential for peak heat index values above 105. A Heat Advisory will be issued for this area Saturday, given the higher confidence there. If the storm coverage is not as great, the advisory may need to be expanded northward by later shifts.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Somewhat higher uncertainty exists for the Saturday evening into Sunday morning period, with another batch of thunderstorms advertised across parts of northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas during this time frame in association with a weak front in the vicinity of the Kansas border. Showers and storms may linger into the daylight hours Sunday, primarily across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with hot and dry weather prevailing thereafter through at least the early part of next week. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed during this time frame. Breezy conditions on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will fuel increased fire weather concerns, with the recent rains not being nearly enough to squelch the impact of the ongoing drought. Toward the end of next week, a cold front continues to be advertised in the longer range models, but the timing and strength of the front remains in question. If/when it does come through, an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential will accompany it.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period outside of any possible convective influences. An outflow boundary tracking south out of Kansas will likely cause a brief wind shift with gusty northerly winds across NE OK this morning. KBVO stands the best chances at seeing impactful wind conditions by mid to late morning and have introduced a TEMPO group to show the wind change. The boundary should begin to weaken and wash out as mixing intensifies through the morning and is less likely to impact KTUL and KRVS as much, though a brief change in direction is still possible. Storm chances have decreased this morning, but additional storm chances are possible late this afternoon and evening through the end of the TAF period as a frontal boundary stalls near the region. NE OK and NW AR sites have the best chance at seeing convective impacts through the latter half of the TAF period.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 96 74 98 78 / 20 40 10 0 FSM 99 74 101 75 / 20 20 10 0 MLC 100 75 101 76 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 94 67 98 70 / 20 40 20 0 FYV 94 68 97 71 / 20 40 20 0 BYV 93 70 95 72 / 20 40 20 0 MKO 97 71 98 73 / 20 10 10 0 MIO 93 70 95 72 / 20 40 20 0 F10 98 72 100 74 / 20 10 0 0 HHW 99 74 98 74 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-070-071-073>075-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.