textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Freeze Warning in effect through 9 AM Saturday for much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A Frost Advisory is in effect for Pushmataha and Choctaw Counties.

- Rain chances return late Saturday night and Sunday.

- Warming and quiet through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Surface high pressure is building into the Southern Plains this evening behind yesterday's cold front. High clouds will continue to spread over the area from southwest to northeast. Surface dewpoints in the 20s and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s and lower 30s across most locations. A Freeze Warning remains in effect through 9 AM Saturday morning for much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

On Saturday, the surface high will shift east toward the Mississippi Valley, returning light southerly winds by late morning. Mid- and high-level clouds will continue to spread into eastern Oklahoma from the southwest during the afternoon ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Filtered sunshine and weak warm air advection will bring afternoon highs into the mid to upper 50s, while dry low-level air keeps conditions rain-free through sunset Saturday.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

An upper-level trough will move out of northern Mexico and track across the Red River and into the Lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday night through late Sunday night. Global models and ensembles agree that Gulf moisture and lift will spread north into the area ahead of the approaching upper-level system Saturday in to Saturday night. Consensus in model data show the best lift and dynamics over our area will occur as the center of the trough/low moves over southwest Oklahoma early Sunday morning. The National Blend of Models (NBM) continues to carry the highest PoPs (70-90%) across the southwestern half of the CWA from early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will likely vary noticeably from southwest to northeast. The highest amounts (0.75 to 1.25 inches) through Sunday night will likely occur in a zone from southern Creek County to Choctaw County, due to closer proximity to the mid-level deformation zone, stronger low-level jet convergence, and higher PWATs (near 1.0 inch). Locations north and east of this zone are expected to receive lighter totals, generally a few hundredths of an inch (far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas) to around a third of an inch. Did not mention any thunderstorm with this system, though limited instability may cause a few rumbles of thunder mainly confined near the Red River in far southeast Oklahoma.

Rain will end from west to east overnight Sunday night into Monday morning as the trough exits. High pressure will build back into the Plains early next week. Overnight lows will trend warmer beginning Monday night, with lows dipping into the mid to upper 30s. A handful of colder-prone areas in far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas may briefly dip to or just below freezing. By mid to late next week, ensemble guidance favors upper-level ridging building over the central CONUS. Southerly winds will bring a warming trend, pushing afternoon highs back into the mid to upper 60s Wednesday and back into the lower 70s by the end of the week.

Mejia

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Quiet aviation conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon with increasing high clouds and light northeast winds becoming southeast. Ceilings will develop and lower late Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across eastern Oklahoma. However, VFR conditions are expected to continue through 06Z Sunday. Scattered showers will develop later Saturday across eastern Oklahoma, particularly near KMLC with only a very minimal thunder chance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 32 57 40 47 / 0 0 40 90 FSM 33 56 39 51 / 0 0 40 70 MLC 33 57 37 46 / 0 0 80 100 BVO 26 57 34 49 / 0 0 30 70 FYV 25 55 31 51 / 0 0 20 40 BYV 28 52 34 52 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 33 55 38 47 / 0 0 50 90 MIO 28 55 35 55 / 0 0 10 10 F10 34 56 39 46 / 0 0 80 90 HHW 39 57 40 46 / 0 0 80 100

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Saturday for OKZ055-059>062- 064>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for OKZ049-053.

AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Saturday for ARZ002-010-011-119- 120-129-219-220-229.