textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 633 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Monday. Greatest potential of storms is Saturday night into Sunday for excessive rainfall and severe weather.

- After the several rounds of rain and storms, the flood threat near creeks and streams will increase, especially Saturday into Sunday.

- Heat Advisory for parts of northeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Saturday afternoon.

- Overall drier weather is expected mid next week before storm chances return late next week. Initially below normal temperatures will climb above normal for the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Storm complex moving across western/central Oklahoma Friday night remains expected to continue its east and southeastward movement into eastern Oklahoma late Friday night/early Saturday morning. This complex is anticipated to be in a weakening state as it enters the CWA due to an increasing cap and the low level jet forecast to be primarily in Kansas. As the system weakens, a gusty to locally strong wind threat will exist into early Saturday morning. Locally heavy rainfall could also develop with any storms that can sustain themselves. Majority of this activity is progged to taper off and exit the CWA by mid/late morning Saturday.

In the wake the morning complex, southerly low level flow increases with gusts of 20-30 mph common. At the same time, cloud cover looks to become more scattered through the afternoon hours. In response, combined with dewpoints in the 70s, warm and humid conditions are forecast Saturday afternoon. Temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s with heat index values of upper 90s to around 105 degrees remain forecast. The higher of the heat indices looks to be over the western portion of northeast Oklahoma and also within the Arkansas River Valley of west central Arkansas. These conditions will be dependent on the timing of when clouds can scatter and the path of the storm complex. Even though, will issue a Heat Advisory for the locations mentioned above.

Saturday Evening Through Sunday...

Southerly low level flow streaming moisture into the region combined with the atmosphere forecast to re-destablize Saturday afternoon will help set the stage ahead of a cold front approaching from the north/northwest. This front is expected to reach northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Saturday evening, and then spread southward into the southern half of the CWA Sunday morning. Latest short-term solutions have hinted that the greater potential for storm development is from lift associated with the front, while more limited potential for storm initiation with max heating/remnant outflow from morning convection. Thus, will keep a low chance PoPs for northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Saturday afternoon, and then quickly increase PoPs after 00z Sunday from north to south.

Any storm that can develop out ahead of the front will be capable of all modes of severe weather. Storms along the boundary will also have a window for all modes of severe weather at the onset. However, as the front moves southward into the CWA, convection should begin to transition to mainly a damaging wind threat into the overnight hours Saturday night. The greater potential is across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

In addition to the severe threat, a very heavy rain threat exists into Sunday morning over the CWA. Moisture advection into the region and moisture pooling along the boundary will aid in precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches. This excessive amount of moisture will create efficient rain producing storms, which could quickly increase flash flood concerns. Widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches are forecast through Sunday, there is a 10 percent chance of rainfall up toward 4+ inches over parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This additional rainfall on top of recent rains could create flooding conditions on creek/streams and also rises on mainstem rivers in addition to the flash flood concerns. Thus, will continue the Flood Watch, especially for locations that received the heavy rainfall Thursday night. Those with outdoor plans this weekend should have multiple ways to receive any necessary severe/flood warnings and be prepared to act if needed.

Sunday morning the majority of the shower/storm chances are forecast along and south of Interstate 40 and should taper off from north to south through Sunday night as the 850-mb frontal boundary and the mid level trof axis make their way through the region. After the warm and humid conditions Saturday, temperatures only in the 70s to mid 80s are forecast Sunday behind the departing cold front.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

There remains potential for lingering showers into Monday for parts of the CWA before a secondary upper level trof quickly moves through. Severe weather is not anticipated Monday and any additional rainfall looks to be mainly light.

The cooler conditions continue into Monday while surface high pressure moves through the region, but then become short-lived as southerly low level winds return Tuesday afternoon/night. Warmer and more humid conditions are forecast for the middle part of next week. Shower/storm chances also look to increase during the latter half of next week from an area of low pressure trying to lift into the southern Plains. At this time, additional heavy rainfall and severe potentials could become possible late next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The diminishing thunderstorm complex will cross the area during the morning and bring a period of showers / thunderstorms to the TAF sites. Clouds will decrease this afternoon. There is some chance for a few thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon in northeast Oklahoma. Another storm complex will drop south across the area tonight and bring a period of thunderstorms to all TAF sites, with a few hours of light rain following the storms. MVFR to local IFR conditions are expected with the passage of the storm complex.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 92 69 77 61 / 80 90 20 10 FSM 93 74 83 65 / 60 80 50 30 MLC 92 73 80 64 / 60 80 60 40 BVO 92 66 76 58 / 60 90 10 0 FYV 88 69 78 58 / 60 80 30 10 BYV 87 67 76 57 / 60 90 30 0 MKO 90 70 77 61 / 80 80 50 10 MIO 89 67 77 57 / 60 100 0 0 F10 90 69 77 60 / 80 80 50 20 HHW 91 75 82 66 / 40 50 70 70

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for OKZ055>058-061>063-067>069.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055-056-059>061-064-067-154-254-354.

AR...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.