textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- A Slight Risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall exists today and tonight.

- A strong cold front arrives Wednesday and a light freeze may occur for a few areas in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Thursday morning.

- Fire weather concerns uptick through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have developed across far southeast Oklahoma in the past couple of hours in response to the low level jet that extends east Texas into southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. This activity should remain sub-severe or at most marginally severe into the afternoon given its location in a relative minimum of instability and a lack of effective shear. This should shift largely east of the area by mid afternoon.

Attention then turns to potential for isolated thunderstorm development mid to late afternoon across mainly northeast Oklahoma. There have been inconsistent signals in the CAMs over the last 24 to 35 hours that one or two storms could develop within an instability axis stretched across that area. Current mesoanalysis shows plenty of MUCAPE already along with more than sufficient effective shear. If a storm can go in this environment, a severe weather potential exists, primarily in the form of large hail and wind gusts.

The more widespread thunderstorm development and highest threat for severe weather, including tornadoes, remains likely to occur from mid to late evening into the early morning Wednesday. A squall line is expected to develop to the west of the area early evening as a mid level disturbance moves in ahead of the main upper level storm system located well to the southwest in Texas. Low level shear should increase through the evening with the ramp up of the low level jet, leading to tornado potential with any favored areas of the expected line. This should be most likely across parts of eastern Oklahoma, earlier in the event. The line will shift eastward overnight, with the chance of some decrease with eastward extent possible given the lower instability in far eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A strong cold front will move through the area beginning daybreak Wednesday, with falling temperatures and strong and gusty northerly winds. Some potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms will exist during mainly the morning along and ahead of the front. However, any severe weather threat will be done by daybreak. The gusty winds and falling dew points behind the front may lead to localized fire weather concerns, primarily across northeast Oklahoma, depending on how much rainfall occurs with tonight's event. Surface high pressure will move into the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with good radiational cooling conditions leading to widespread lows in the 30s. Parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will likely freeze. Southerly winds should return Thursday as the surface high shifts east, with warmer afternoon temperatures especially for northeast Oklahoma. The warmup will continue into Friday and Saturday ahead of another strong cold front during the latter part of the weekend. Low chances for rain will exist across far eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, with at least some potential for wintry precipitation types Sunday night into Monday morning with the coldest air. Much colder daytime temperatures than we have seen of late will open next week, along with additional opportunities for freezing temperatures. The freezing temperatures, both Wednesday night/Thursday morning and again early next week, may have an impact on fuels across the area, leading to an uptick in the fire weather potential.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings and strong and gusty south to southwest winds will persist into the afternoon at all terminals. The northeast Oklahoma sites will have the best chance to see VFR ceilings as early as mid afternoon. A line of thunderstorms moving west to east across the terminals remains on track from mid evening into early Wednesday morning, with a period of IFR conditions and strong VRB wind gusts. Will carry the worst conditions in NE OK given recent CAM solutions, with a modest decrease in intensity for the W AR sites given the expected lower instability there. An abrupt wind shift and increase in speed/gusts will occur at all sites during the last 6-8 hours of the period following the strong cold frontal passage. MVFR ceilings should occur with the front at most sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 83 55 64 35 / 20 60 40 0 FSM 80 63 73 37 / 30 90 60 0 MLC 79 60 71 37 / 30 90 40 0 BVO 86 49 62 30 / 20 50 30 0 FYV 78 57 67 32 / 30 90 60 0 BYV 78 58 64 34 / 20 80 70 0 MKO 80 58 67 34 / 20 80 40 0 MIO 80 50 62 32 / 20 60 60 0 F10 81 57 68 35 / 20 80 30 0 HHW 78 62 76 38 / 40 90 50 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.