textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Unsettled weather is expected to persist through much of the upcoming work week. There will be multiple opportunities for heavy rainfall and some severe weather.

- The most likely period for storm activity is Tuesday night into Wednesday, with areas of heavy rain, flash flooding, and strong winds expected.

- Below average temperatures are forecast this upcoming work week, returning above average this upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Subsidence behind this mornings system will keep the forecast mainly dry for the remainder of the daytime hours, though a few showers will likely continue across the higher terrain of southeast OK and northwest AR. High temperatures will run below average this afternoon, particularly across the north.

Rain chances will again increase overnight, mainly along and south of I-40 (closer to the frontal boundary). This increase in PoPs will be driven by another subtle passing wave which will kick off a few showers where usable instability will be greater. There is a low end chance for severe weather, with wind being the main threat (5% chance). Locally heavy rain is also possible, and as such, isolated flash flooding may occur. Low temperatures will mostly be in the low 70s overnight.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

An active pattern will remain in place for the rest of the week with northwest flow aloft overtopping moist southerly flow at the surface. This will keep plenty of moisture, shear, and instability in place. Meanwhile, frequent transient shortwaves will pass through, bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This type of pattern, and especially this time of year, is notorious for bringing high winds and heavy rain. This is exactly what we have been seeing and will continue to see. Currently it appears Tuesday night into Wednesday is the best chance for more widespread heavy rain and severe weather probabilities, but there will be additional chances every day through Saturday. With that said, CAM guidance for Tuesday night is already zeroing in on the wind and rain potential. Another 1-2 inches of rain with locally higher totals is expected for the majority of the area. Assuming a well developed line of storms occurs, CAMs suggest severe wind gusts in the stronger cells would be expected. High temperatures will run in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to 70s.

By early next week high pressure will move into the area, and mostly if not completely shut down the storm cycle. Temperatures will warm to above normal values. Considering all of the rain that we have already received, and with more on the way, it is likely the heat will be accompanied by significant humidity.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be ending early this morning. Mainly MVFR ceilings will then prevail until late this afternoon, when ceilings will improve to VFR at all sites for the rest of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 81 69 85 71 / 20 20 20 70 FSM 87 72 86 72 / 70 40 40 50 MLC 86 71 88 74 / 50 50 40 40 BVO 78 64 84 69 / 20 10 20 70 FYV 82 67 83 68 / 70 20 20 60 BYV 79 64 80 67 / 70 10 20 60 MKO 82 69 84 70 / 50 30 30 60 MIO 78 65 84 68 / 20 10 10 70 F10 83 69 85 71 / 50 50 30 50 HHW 87 72 88 73 / 80 70 30 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.