textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 144 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Rain and storm chances continue through Friday afternoon with an isolated risk of severe weather and also locally heavy rainfall.

- Another period of unsettled weather is expected to begin early Sunday and continue into Monday. There will be multiple opportunities for some severe weather and heavy rainfall during this time frame.

- Daily storm chances forecast for much of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Early this afternoon, a MCV located in south central Oklahoma continued to slowly push eastward, allowing for showers and scattered convection to remain across southeast Oklahoma. Latest trends have showed a weakening trend across southeast Oklahoma as the original MCS pushes farther away from the lingering MCV into southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. At the same time, with help of the rain cooled air from the precip, the instability axis had shifted southward further into northeast Texas. This has allowed for the severe potentials to become more isolated across the CWA this afternoon. However, with the slow movement of the convection and the MCV, a heavy rain threat persists through late afternoon which could lead to localized areas of flood conditions. The greater threat for this is over far southeast Oklahoma, near the Red River, where estimates of 1 to 3 inches of rain have fallen.

Also, this afternoon, weak frontogenetic forcing along an 850-mb boundary positioned northwest to southeast over the CWA will continue to create low shower/storm chances for northeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. This activity should remain weaker with brief moderate/heavy rains as the main instability was south of the Red River.

Latest indications suggest the ongoing showers/storms begin to taper off this afternoon and exit this evening with surface high pressure over the CWA. A slight chance of additional showers/isolated thunder could develop late tonight as the surface frontal boundary that moved through yesterday begins to lift back toward the region.

Temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s from south to north remain probable, while low temperatures tonight of upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The retreating surface boundary is expected to lift north/northeast across the CWA during the day Saturday. In its wake, an increase in low level moisture and warm conditions are forecast Saturday afternoon. These conditions will aid in low chances for diurnal convection over the CWA. Much of any development looks to lift northeast and exit by early evening.

Saturday afternoon/evening, convection in Nebraska and Kansas are forecast to develop into a southeastward moving MCS which could reach parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. This MCS, aided by a 30-50KT low level jet, will create a limited severe potential for the CWA with locally damaging wind the main threat. A locally heavy rain threat also exists with precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 2 inch range.

With the Saturday night MCS, a cold front is progged to sag southeastward toward the region Sunday. Ahead of this boundary, gusty southerly winds transporting a warm and humid airmass into the region is forecast. High temperatures of upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast, as well as heat index values of upper 90s to near 108 degrees. If trends continue with these conditions, a heat advisory will likely be needed for parts of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Sunday afternoon.

The cold front gets a push into the CWA Sunday evening from a shortwave dropping southeast through the Plains. Showers and storms are forecast to develop with/ahead of the front Sunday late afternoon, and move southeastward into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Sunday evening. This activity spreads through the CWA Sunday night and into mainly the southern half of the CWA Monday. The warm/humid conditions ahead of the front will help to increase instability over the region, which sets up a limited to locally elevated severe potential through Sunday late evening. Also, moisture pooling along the front will create precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches. Thus, in addition to the severe threat, a heavy rain threat exists Sunday evening into Monday. As of this forecast, widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3+ inches are forecast Sunday through Monday night. This rainfall on top of recent rains will help to increase flood concerns and also increase the potential for rises in streams and rivers. Those with outdoor plans this weekend, especially along creeks and rivers, should continue to monitor latest forecasts through the weekend and be prepared to act if any warnings are issued.

Looking into next week, shower and storm chances continue Monday into Monday night with the cold front. Latest indications continue to highlight the frontal boundary waffling around/remaining over the region through much of next week, while at the same time additional disturbances push through. Thus, daily shower and storm chances remain through the week. Limited severe potentials could develop each day along with a limited locally heavy rain threat. High temperatures next week in the 80s are currently forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Clouds are forecast to continue to thin-out over the next few hours, with mostly scattered mid/high level clouds through the night. VFR will likely prevail through at least midnight at all TAF sites. Light fog/patchy low-stratus may try to develop and spread from south to north after midnight tonight, with latest guidance showing this mainly impacting E. OK terminals near or just before sunrise Saturday morning. Have added TEMPO groups for light fog at KBVO, KTUL, KRVS, and KMLC early-mid morning. Scattered to broken low-clouds may blanket parts of area through the remainder of the morning, with borderline VFR/MVFR into early afternoon. Shower/storm chances will increase, especially across far SE/E OK and NW AR by mid-afternoon. Added PROB30 groups for the AR TAF sites for isolated to scattered convection from mid- afternoon through the end of the TAF period. Winds stay light out of the south or southeast through the period.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 73 87 75 93 / 10 30 20 30 FSM 73 89 75 94 / 20 40 20 10 MLC 73 89 75 93 / 10 30 20 10 BVO 69 86 73 92 / 20 30 40 50 FYV 69 85 73 88 / 10 40 20 40 BYV 66 84 71 87 / 10 50 30 40 MKO 72 87 74 92 / 10 30 20 20 MIO 68 85 73 90 / 20 40 50 60 F10 71 87 74 92 / 10 30 20 10 HHW 73 88 75 92 / 30 40 20 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.