textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the weekend. Any stronger storms will be capable of locally gusty winds and heavy downpours.

- A trend toward drier and hotter conditions expected through early next week. Heat indices will reach 105-110 F for many areas early next week. Expect excessive heat advisories.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon through mid evening before dissipating. Any stronger storms will be capable of locally gusty downburst winds and heavy downpours.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Forecast will maintain a trend of drier and warmer weather through the weekend. While isolated daily showers and storms may still develop the overall coverage will trend lower as ridging aloft strengthens. Temperatures will also trend upward with lesser daily cloud cover. Dewpoints may well overachieve the current forecast and, should that occur, a more widespread footprint of heat index values in excess of advisory criteria would be realized. The upward trend in temps continues into early next week and heat advisory to potential excessive heat warning criteria appear likely.

Upper ridging becomes centered over the southern High Plains by Tuesday, however a weak cold front continues to be shown moving into the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. A corridor of pre frontal warming would be maximized by Tuesday afternoon and most guidance maintains this as the hottest day with triple digit heat possible. The degree of post frontal cooling is suspect given the time of the year, however the stalled boundary and placement on the periphery of the upper ridge could allow for a corridor of higher precip chances and somewhat cooler temps. Placement of the upper ridge and any frontal boundary evolution are uncertain and will be the main features for the forecast mid to late next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Largely VFR conditions expected through the period. Broken low VFR cloud cover along with broken mid clouds will continue over the region through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Winds will gust near 20 knots at times this afternoon out of the southwest, especially across northern sites. Scattered showers and storms are expected through the afternoon, with best coverage across eastern Oklahoma and more isolated coverage across northwest Arkansas. Activity should dissipate around sunset with light southerly winds and continued mid level clouds through the night. Winds turn southwesterly again tomorrow morning with low level cu developing by mid morning.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 75 93 77 97 / 20 20 10 0 FSM 75 95 75 97 / 20 10 0 0 MLC 75 92 75 95 / 20 20 0 10 BVO 72 93 74 95 / 20 20 10 0 FYV 72 90 73 93 / 20 20 10 10 BYV 72 91 73 94 / 20 20 10 10 MKO 73 91 74 95 / 20 20 0 0 MIO 73 91 74 95 / 20 20 10 10 F10 73 91 73 94 / 20 20 0 0 HHW 74 91 74 95 / 20 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.