textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1236 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Rain chances exit northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon with cold front moving through.

- Light freeze potential for a few areas in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Thursday morning.

- Fire weather concerns Thursday and again Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

As of midday Wednesday, the surface cold front was positioned from Pittsburg co to Carroll co, while the elevated frontal boundary and the mid level trof axis trailed a few counties behind. Along the surface boundary, a narrow line of rain showers had developed across northwest Arkansas and were moving east/southeast. An isolated potential for a lightning strike or two exists within this activity, though instability remained quite limited. Over the next few hours the majority of this activity should be exiting the CWA with the movement of the front.

Behind the boundary, gusty northerly winds 25 to locally around 40 mph were observed across much of eastern Oklahoma. These winds are anticipated to continue to spread through the CWA this afternoon. Mid to late afternoon surface high pressure, currently centered over the western portion of the central Plains, is expected to slide south/southeast into the region and weaken the winds this evening and tonight. At the same time, once the mid level trof axis departs to the east, cloud cover scatters out with mostly clear and light winds forecast overnight tonight across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. In response, temperatures look to fall into the 30s for much of the CWA, while the normal cool locations get down to/just below freezing early Thursday morning. Officially, we are still just outside of the beginning of the growing season. Thus, will hold off on freeze headlines at this time.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Surface high pressure exits to the south and mid level heights begin to rise from to southwest Thursday allowing for the return of south/southwesterly surface winds and temps back in the 60s. Breezy conditions along with afternoon min relative humidity values in the 15 to 30 percent range northwest of Interstate 44 in northeast Oklahoma will elevate fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon. Southerly winds remain breezy into the overnight hours ahead of the southern portion of a frontal boundary, associated with a low pressure system moving through the northern High Plains/Great Lakes region, clipping the CWA. A lack of moisture return should keep this boundary dry while it moves over the CWA Friday.

Southerly winds quickly return and become gusty Saturday creating the warmest day of the forecast period with highs in the mid/upper 70s. These conditions are short-lived as another, more defined, cold front enters/sweeps through the CWA Sunday morning and early afternoon. There looks to be a window where enough moisture advection into the region could create small chances for rain showers over the eastern portion of the CWA Sunday. Any activity should remain light and looks to exit Sunday evening with the departing mid/upper level trof axis. If the departure of this wave is delayed, there may be an isolated potential for a few snowflakes within the higher terrain of far northwest Arkansas Sunday night. However, latest model soundings shower drier air filtering in behind the boundary and not currently anticipating wintry precip Sunday night.

One thing to note behind the cold front Sunday, will be gusty northerly winds aiding in an elevated fire weather concern Sunday afternoon for parts of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Like the front today, temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning are forecast to fall into the 30s with parts of the CWA near/slightly below freezing. Indications are that southerly winds and warmer temperatures return next Tuesday with an expanding upper level ridge southwest of the CWA.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Residual low-level stratus clouds are expected to shift east of the forecast area early this evening, with clear or mostly clear skies anticipated to prevail through the remainder of the period. Breezy north winds early this evening will gradually subside through the night, becoming light and variable at most terminals after midnight tonight. South to southwest winds will return and become gusty by late morning or early afternoon Thursday.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 34 65 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 36 65 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 36 65 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 29 65 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 30 61 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 32 60 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 33 64 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 31 60 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 F10 33 63 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 37 63 42 72 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.