textproduct: Tulsa
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 608 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
- Headline worthy heat continues through Friday, with afternoon heat indices of 105-115F.
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in the forecast through Friday, especially across northern and eastern parts of the area. Storms Thursday afternoon and evening may drop locally heavy rainfall.
- A cool front will bring more pleasant weather for the weekend into early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Through Thursday) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
While a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, the greater coverage of showers and storms is once again expected to be in the afternoon, and again mainly in the eastern half of the forecast area.
Dangerous heat will continue Thursday across much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, with afternoon heat index values generally in the 105-110 degree range. A narrow corridor of maximum heat index values at or just above 110 is expected across parts of eastern Oklahoma, mainly just to the west of where the greatest shower and storm coverage will be, and have upgraded this area to an extreme heat warning. Depending on cloud/precipitation trends during the day, some adjustments to the warning area may be required.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
One final day of dangerous heat is expected Friday, with both temperature and heat index values possibly a degree or two higher than Thursday. Additional heat headlines will be likely Friday. Shower and storm chances will continue Friday into Friday evening as a cold front works its way south across the area during the afternoon and evening.
Much cooler weather will prevail over the weekend following the passage of the front, with below normal temperatures. A gradual warming trend will then develop for next week, with temperatures trending back up to near or above the seasonal averages by the middle to latter part of next week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into northeast Oklahoma this morning. The most likely terminal to see impacts is KBVO, but the Tulsa area airports may also see passing showers and storms. These storms will be capable of brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Storm activity will then move eastward into northwest Arkansas this afternoon, but will generally remain isolated. Otherwise scattered mid to high clouds are expected through the day. Winds will mostly be light and out of the south to southeast, with a bit of afternoon breeziness.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 99 80 100 72 / 20 10 20 10 FSM 96 77 100 75 / 30 20 20 20 MLC 100 79 101 74 / 10 10 20 20 BVO 98 74 99 69 / 20 30 30 10 FYV 93 73 95 69 / 50 20 20 30 BYV 89 72 93 69 / 50 20 40 50 MKO 98 76 100 72 / 20 20 20 20 MIO 94 75 97 68 / 30 30 30 20 F10 99 77 100 72 / 10 10 20 20 HHW 99 77 100 76 / 20 20 10 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-059-063-065-068-154-172-176-272-276-376.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>057-060>062-064-066-067-070-071-073>075- 254-354.
AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.
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