textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1109 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Well above normal temperatures continue today, near record highs again south of I-40.

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances this evening through Thursday night. A few stronger storms possible Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

- Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normal this weekend.

- Increasing rain chances again late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1109 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Most of the day today will see pleasant conditions under increasing high cloud cover from an approaching storm system. Temperatures will once again push record highs generally along and south of I-40 as a warm front lifts back northward through southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas this afternoon. The warm front could also serve to focus the development of a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening across SE OK extending into NW AR this evening. Modest instability will be present south of the frontal boundary and any storms that can sustain, could potentially become strong to marginally severe, with large hail up to half dollar size the primary threat through the period. The warm front is progged to continue to lift northward through the evening and overnight in response to a deepening surface low over the Kansas/Colorado High Plains. An intensifying low level jet will develop over the boundary tonight, and the result will be increasing chances for showers and storms across NE OK into NW AR during the overnight period tonight. A locally heavy rain threat will the primary concern overnight, as storms could train over the same areas near the frontal zone. The severe potential will be less, but not zero during this time as elevated instability remains in place posing a continued hail threat.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 1109 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Widespread showers and storms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning within the zone of isentropic ascent from Highway 412 north, while another area of precipitation develops across SE OK with the arrival of the synoptic system. The severe threat looks to wain into the morning hours Thursday as instability weakens from the widespread rain showers. A lull in precipitation appears possible during the early afternoon hours before another round of widespread showers and storms moves through the region from late afternoon through the evening hours with the primary shortwave moving through. The main threat will be for locally heavy rainfall, with storm total precip expected to be 1 to 3 inches with locally higher totals where more convective activity can occur. Any lingering rain showers will exit the area Friday morning with the passage of a cold front, giving way to a pleasant weekend across the area. Temperatures will return back to nearer seasonal normals, though still slightly on the warm side for this time of year.

Another system is forecast to move out of the Southwest CONUS by late weekend into early next week. Guidance still differs on the timing of this system, but generally increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will begin during the day Sunday into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will again be the primary concern with this system before it exits the area on Tuesday. There is more agreement that a stronger outbreak of Arctic air could be on the way around Thanksgiving into early December, so we will be watching that as it gets closer in the forecast range.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Ongoing VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate overnight into the day Thursday. Isolated showers and storms may develop as early as late afternoon,however a more likely increase in coverage will begin late tonight with widespread rains and scattered storms Thursday. Ceilings will gradually lower with prevailing MVFR to periodic IFR conditions likely late tonight through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 60 70 59 71 / 60 80 90 20 FSM 64 73 61 76 / 60 90 100 20 MLC 64 73 60 75 / 60 90 90 10 BVO 54 68 55 69 / 60 90 90 30 FYV 61 70 58 72 / 60 90 100 30 BYV 59 67 60 71 / 60 100 100 50 MKO 63 70 60 73 / 60 90 90 10 MIO 58 68 59 70 / 70 90 100 40 F10 62 70 58 73 / 60 90 90 10 HHW 64 73 60 75 / 70 80 90 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.