textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Thunderstorm chances tonight and remain through Tuesday night. Some severe weather potential will exist overnight and Tuesday late afternoon/early evening.

- Below normal temperatures briefly return mid-week.

- Warmer temperatures from Friday on, with low rain chances returning for the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A vort max moving across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma interacting with an increasing low level jet late Monday evening was aiding in the development of scattered convection moving eastward within the mean mid level flow. Elevated instability along with convection forming into clusters, were creating limited severe potentials in the form of locally damaging winds as the primary threat. Deep layer shear and steep mid level lapse rates would allow for hail to be a secondary threat. The greater severe threat resided in east/southeast Kansas, closer to the cold front and an west-east elevated theta-e axis.

These storm clusters are expected to push east and southeast into Tuesday morning with the movement of any out flow boundaries and surface low pressure/associated cold front sliding southeast into the CWA. The greater storm potentials and limited severe potential are expected over far northeast Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas into the early morning hours before instability weakens. Much of the early morning convection is forecast to move east of the CWA by mid morning Tuesday. Frontogenetic forcing between the surface and the elevated 850-mb front could create light rain showers Tuesday morning over the northern half of the CWA before elevated instability begins to increase again.

Surface cold front is progged to be moving across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the afternoon hours with slight to chance thunderstorm potentials mainly along and ahead of the boundary. Latest indications continue to hint that storm coverage/development could be limited until frontogenetic forcing can interact with max heating and the re-development of a low level theta-e axis. However, by 00z Wednesday, the surface front looks be over far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Thus, the greater storm and severe potentials look to be during the Tuesday mid/late afternoon into early evening time frame before storms move off to the east. Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe threats, though a non-zero tornado threat also exists with moderate 0-1km storm relative helicity ahead of the front. Severe potentials are forecast to weaken through the evening hours for the CWA.

Tuesday evening/night the surface cold front looks to hold up over far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Aloft, the 925-mb boundary sets up around the Interstate 40 corridor, with the 850-mb front over northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Will hold onto slight to low chance thunderstorm potentials mainly along and south of the 925-mb front, while a slight chance of rain showers remains for the northern half of the CWA Tuesday night.

Temperatures remain warm into Tuesday morning and should be allowed to warm up into the 80s ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon over the southern half of the CWA. Behind the surface front, temperatures during the day do not look to warm all that much Tuesday morning and then begin to fall through the afternoon hours for northeast Oklahoma. By late afternoon temps in the upper 50s near the Kansas border to mid 80s near the Red River are forecast. Temperatures continue to fall Tuesday night with lows in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The cold front gets a push southeastward during the day Wednesday as a low pressure system moves southeast out of the Rocky Mountains and into the Plains. Thus, rain chances are forecast to taper off and exit Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Upper level trof axis to the low moves across the region Wednesday night which will help to scatter cloud cover and aid in the coldest temperatures of the forecast period. Lows in the 40s are forecast for much of the CWA, though upper 30s could develop within the normal cool locations. Cool conditions remain into Thursday before southerly winds transport warmer temperatures back into the CWA Friday.

A shortwave is progged to move through the southern Plains Friday night with a second wave pushing southeast through the central Plains Sunday/Monday. Latest model solutions indicate the better low level moisture return could with the late weekend wave and an increase in additional shower and thunderstorm chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Pretty complex forecast with a lot of moving parts during this forecast period. Band of elevated storms will continue east into NW AR and have inserted TEMPOs to the far NW AR sites to cover potential. Removed thunder mention at the NE OK sites. Next we have a cold front that will sweep south and east over the region through the day tomorrow, with MVFR and even IFR cigs overspreading the area behind the front. A period of MVFR cigs is also possible at both KMLC and KFSM ahead of the front as well. Finally, there is potential for afternoon storm development most likely just to the east of KFYV and KFSM, but close enough for a prob30 mention. South to southeast winds will swing around to the east and then north behind the front and will be gusty at times. Some improvement in cig heights is possible for a time during the afternoon at some sites.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 66 49 61 43 / 20 20 10 0 FSM 81 54 66 49 / 40 50 30 10 MLC 81 51 66 47 / 20 20 20 0 BVO 61 45 59 39 / 30 40 10 0 FYV 74 48 61 40 / 40 50 20 10 BYV 68 47 58 43 / 70 60 30 10 MKO 77 50 63 44 / 20 20 20 10 MIO 61 46 59 40 / 50 50 20 0 F10 77 49 63 44 / 20 20 10 0 HHW 85 58 69 52 / 20 50 30 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.