textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 144 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch in effect for parts of northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Near record heat Today and Thursday.

- A cold front moves through the region Thursday night and early Friday, bringing low rain chances and cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Record high temperatures are expected today as mid-upper level ridging intensifies across the southern plains. Additionally, winds will remain breezy out of the south-southwest with gusts 20 to 25 mph. This will maintain increased fire weather conditions this afternoon as relative humidity values drop into the 20 to 35 percent range. South winds remain somewhat breezy overnight, which will ensure another warm night across the FA. To further put this early season heat in perspective, low temperatures tonight will be near the average high temperature for this time of year.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

South-southwest winds ramp up Thursday morning, becoming strong during the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range will be common, with a few gusts near 40 mph possible, especially north of Hwy 412 in Oklahoma. Fire weather will be the biggest concern Thursday afternoon. Relative humidity values will not be as low as previous fire weather days due to increasing low level moisture, but fuels remain dense and very dry across the area. With winds gusting 30 to 40 mph, this will create near- critical fire spread rates across portions of NE OK, especially along and west of I-44. Locally critical spread rates will be possible in western Osage and Pawnee counties. The Fire Weather Watch was expanded to include several more counties in NE OK and portions of the area were upgraded to a Red Flag Warning where confidence in dangerous fire weather conditions is highest.

Winds will tend to decrease somewhat Thursday evening before the aformentioned front pushes through the area during the overnight hours. As it does so, winds will rapidly increase out of the north, with gusts to 30-40 mph, perhaps up to 45 mph. A Wind Advisory may be required for portions of the area as a result. The front clears the southern end of the FA Friday morning, but strong winds are likely to persist for much of the day. This will lead to another day of increased fire weather concerns, especially acorss NE OK. There will be enough moisture available for the development of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two along the front Thursday night into Friday. However, the best potential will be restricted to far NE OK and NW AR, and precip amounts will likely remain light (< 1/10 inch).

High temepratures fall back to near seasonal normals Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, southerly flow returns with temperatures creeping back up through early-mid next week. The synoptic pattern will also change by early to mid week as amplified troughing develops across W CONUS and places us under SW flow aloft. Within this pattern, several disturbances may impact the area Tuesday through the end of the week, providing increasing rain and thunderstorm chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with gusty winds both this afternoon and again mid to late morning tomorrow being the main aviation concerns. South to southwest gusts today will be in the 20 to 25 kt range in most sites, dropping off with sunset. South to southwest gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range will be prevalent by midday tomorrow.

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OKZ054-055-059-064. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OKZ056>058-060>063-065>067.

AR...None.