textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

- Cold again tonight. Then, temperatures quickly warm to above normal temperatures by mid week.

- Low rain chances (20-30%) east on Wednesday night and Thursday morning as a front passes, otherwise dry weather prevails.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 953 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

With mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry air, temperatures have quickly dropped off tonight. A gradual increase in cloud cover and the eventual development of light southerly winds should keep temperatures from dropping too much further. Most locations will fall to the upper teens to mid 20s.

After sunrise, southerly wind will increase, gusting to 15-30 mph across the area. Temperatures will quickly warm, except across portions of eastern OK where developing stratus will keep the warming trend somewhat muted. Most areas will end up in the 40s for high temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 953 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

A more substantial moderation is expected on Tuesday as warm southerly flow continues. Highs will reach the 50s to perhaps 60 in a few locations. A weak upper level wave on Tuesday evening may promote the potential for a few light showers, with some guidance indicating this possibility. But dry lower levels and questionable dynamics suggest accumulating rainfall is very unlikely. A corresponding surface boundary will then dissipate across northeast OK Wednesday morning, but will have little sensible impacts aside from a reduction in wind speeds. Temperatures will climb a few additional degrees, with most areas reaching the lower 60s.

An upper level trough will pass to the north of the area Thursday, but it will still send a cold front through. In terms of precipitation it looks better than the last few, with marginally sufficient moisture return to allow for a few showers Thursday within the low level warm advection across far eastern OK and northwest AR. Accumulation does not look significant, but a few areas could see up to a quarter inch of rain, especially in Arkansas. The front does not look that impressive, but the AI models are running cooler than conventional NWP models, and this makes sense for shallow cold air. Accordingly, lowered temperatures a bit below NBM guidance, especially for Friday morning low temperatures. Even so, a quick reversal is expected with southerly winds returning and the upper level high restrengthening. Highs will reach the low to mid 50s Friday and upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday. Model spread grows into next weekend, but at this time the most likely outcome seems to be for yet another dry cold front to pass through.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

MVFR ceilings are likely to spread into the northeast Oklahoma sites Monday morning and likely persist until near or shortly after sunset. KMLC will likely be on the eastern edge of any MVFR ceilings around midday Monday. South winds will gust to near or above 20 knots at the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites during the day Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 21 45 33 58 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 20 49 29 60 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 21 46 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 16 47 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 16 46 30 56 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 17 47 31 57 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 20 44 32 58 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 19 44 31 54 / 0 0 0 10 F10 21 45 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 22 44 32 58 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.