textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1052 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- We may see some sprinkles over the next couple of days across NE OK and NW AR as an upper wave moves across.

- A gradual warming trend is expected to continue over the next several days.

- A weather system may bring a low chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend or early next week, but otherwise the forecast remains dry.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

An upper wave currently evident on WV imagery moving into NM will move into the central Plains over the next couple of days. Increasing lift from the system will bring increasing mid and high cloud, mainly across the north. CAMs show spotty showers or sprinkles spreading across NE OK and NW AR Tuesday and Wednesday as the system tops an amplifying ridge and then drops southeast. Model soundings are dry below 700mb, with the bulk of the moisture in the 500-700mb layer. Heavier showers may manage to get some hydrometeors to the surface, but chances for measurable rain look pretty slim. Will insert sprinkle mention into the grids and call it good.

High temps will continue to trend upward through the 70s to near 80 in the south by Wednesday.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

An upper low is expected to evolve off the West Coast tomorrow and will make slow progress eastward into the CONUS through the end of the week. An amplified downstream ridge will prevail over the Plains during the latter half of the week. Dry weather and continued above average temps can be expected.

The models take the majority of the energy from this initial system north toward away from our region and toward the northern Plains late this week, with some energy hanging back over the Southwest. The forecast area will remain under the influence of ridging at the surface and aloft, so the onset of rain chances keeps getting pushed back. Bottom line, rain chances through this forecast remain low at best and will continue to be until the second system in the Southwest finally comes east.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the forecast period, with some passing high and mid clouds and light south or southeast winds.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 50 74 50 77 / 0 0 10 10 FSM 50 78 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 48 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 48 73 46 76 / 10 10 10 10 FYV 50 75 47 77 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 48 73 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 50 75 50 77 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 49 72 49 73 / 0 10 0 10 F10 49 75 49 78 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 48 77 50 80 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.