textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1145 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Periods of low impact showers and isolated storms will continue through tonight, perhaps lingering through Saturday morning, mainly across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

- Fall-like temperatures this weekend will trend unseasonably warm next week.

- Rain chances are unlikely Sunday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A weakening band of light to moderate rain continues to fall across portions of southeast OK and northwest AR late this morning. Rainfall rates have trended way down since earlier this morning and flooding is no longer a concern for the foreseeable future. A brief lull in precipitation may occur over the next couple of hours, but isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms could redevelop across southeast OK later in the afternoon. No impacts are expected.

The mid-level trough responsible for the rainy conditions over the last couple of days continues to lift north and east of the forecast area today. Models have been persistent keeping an elongated trough axis over the region, which may develop into a weak mid-level low over west TX by this evening. The general troughiness pattern aloft will help keep low to medium precipitation chances (30-50%), mostly across southeast OK and west-central AR, as well as thick low clouds tonight into Saturday. Rainfall and amounts should be generally light, and therefore no impacts are expected. Latest guidance does suggest that the thick, low clouds should clear some from north to south this afternoon and into this evening, though most of this clearing occurs near and north of US-412 and will likely fill back in overnight tonight. Cloud cover tonight should prevent low temperatures from reaching their potential lows, but will still feel crisp compared to recent nights, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s for most places. A few areas north of I-44 may dip into the low to mid 50s, depending on cloud cover.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The aforementioned weak mid-level low over west Texas will become a little better defined by Saturday morning and will help continue to draw in low to mid-level moisture into OK and western AR. Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall may be ongoing across portions of southeast OK and into northwest AR at the start of the long-term period. CAMs show very light and spotty, off/on rain showers lingering south of I-40 through the daytime Saturday. Most locations should remain dry. Cloud cover is expected to stay somewhat broken to overcast on Saturday, keeping temperatures unseasonably cool; high temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s.

The weak mid-level low will drift south and east across north TX Saturday into Sunday, with the trough axis sliding east of the area around midday Sunday. Dry and mostly pleasant weather will prevail through the upcoming workweek next week.

Temperatures this weekend will feel every bit of autumn, especially on Saturday with high temperatures generally reaching the mid to upper 70s everywhere. Global models indicate a weak and subtle cold front will work its way across the area Sunday into Monday. The absence of any significant moisture will keep things high and dry as it moves through. The front may drop daytime temperatures a degree or two on Monday, compared to Sunday. The effects of the front may be felt more during the evenings and early mornings when low temperatures dip into the upper 40s and 50s both Monday morning and Tuesday morning. Despite the weak front on Sunday, high temperatures will slowly and gradually moderate back above average and into the 80s by Tuesday, once high pressure shifts east and southerly surface winds make a return. Guidance even brings back widespread mid to upper 80s and perhaps even lower 90s south of I-40 by mid to late week.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Extensive MVFR to locally, IFR conditions continue across the area, with the lowest visibilities associated with on-station heavy rain showers. FSM is seeing them currently, with FYV the next most likely to see the heavier showers this morning. Reduced ceilings will most likely continue through the entire period at MLC/FSM/FYV, with a return to VFR conditions forecast late this afternoon and evening at the other terminals. Low clouds should expand northward again late tonight, with mainly MVFR ceilings developing again after midnight. Expect gusty north winds today following the frontal passage at the E OK sites that subside toward sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 72 60 76 61 / 10 0 10 0 FSM 77 65 78 63 / 60 20 20 20 MLC 76 63 78 62 / 40 30 30 20 BVO 73 52 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 71 58 77 57 / 30 10 10 10 BYV 70 59 75 59 / 30 10 10 0 MKO 74 62 77 61 / 10 10 10 10 MIO 72 56 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 F10 72 60 76 59 / 20 10 20 10 HHW 78 65 77 63 / 70 40 30 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.