textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 - Low potential for patchy fog development early Tuesday morning across far SE OK and W-Central AR.

- Increased fire weather concerns return each afternoon through Thursday, with well above normal temperatures, low humidity, and windy conditions.

- Cooler temperatures and low rain chances return this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

At least limited fire weather conditions are expected through this afternoon given gusty southerly winds gusting to 30 mph. However, RH values will generally remain greater than 30 percent helping reduce overall potential. A seasonably mild night is in store across the region as persistent southerly flow and increasing cloud cover hold low temperatures in the 50s or upper 40s. Patchy fog development will be possible again tonight, mainly across far southeast OK into W-Central AR where winds will be lighter and cloud cover lesser. As with today, any morning fog is likely to lift/dissipate by mid Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Fire weather concerns will be the main forecast theme through the end of the work week. Temperatures Tuesday will be similar to today, despite increased mid and high level cloud cover. South to southwest winds will also remain gusty, with max wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph. Depending on the degree of mixing that occurs, some gusts near 40 mph will be possible, though cloud cover should help reduce this potential. Additionally, min RH values should remain in the 40-50 percent range for much of the day, keeping overall fire weather conditions from reaching full potential. A sfc trough pushes through the area Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, bringing drier air to the region for the remainder of the week.

Winds on Wednesday will initially be lighter out of the west following the trough, but increase out of the southwest again by the afternoon, gusting up to 25 mph. Given the much drier air, this will maintain a limited threat of fire weather Wednesday. By Thursday, a sfc low ejects into the central plains and drags a dry front through the area. This will result in a period of stronger westerly winds as well as continued dry conditions. As a result, fire weather potential will be higher on Thursday, especially across NE OK and NW AR.

A secondary cold front will advance into the CWA late Thursday/ early Friday, bringing temperatures back down to near average (50s) for the remainder of the forecast period. Model solutions diverge by this weekend/ early next week, with at least low rain potential working its way back into the forecast. This will ultimately depend on strength and position of another upper level trough set to move into the central states... with a more flat and embedded wave solution implying lesser precip chances for our area. Any rain would be welcome to help limit fire concerns going forward, but currently not expecting much this weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South winds will gust over 20 knots at times this afternoon before diminishing slightly this evening. The winds will increase again Tuesday morning, with gusts over 25 knots possible by the end of the forecast period. LLWS mention will be maintained tonight into Tuesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 54 74 50 77 / 0 0 10 0 FSM 46 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 53 73 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 49 74 44 77 / 0 0 10 0 FYV 48 72 52 75 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 49 70 56 74 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 50 72 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 51 72 50 73 / 0 0 10 0 F10 54 73 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 49 71 57 74 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.