textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions ongoing this afternoon.

- A sharp warming trend continues through the end of the week. Near record high temperatures are forecast by late week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Fire weather conditions will worsen through the afternoon especially along and west of the Highway 75 corridor across northeast Oklahoma. Increasing cloud cover this afternoon may somewhat limit potential further east, however very low humidity values will exist area wide and abundant fuels remain in place to support aggressive grassland fire spread rates. Winds may remain gusty at times through the overnight hours which could complicate any ongoing fire suppression efforts.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Warm up continues to intensify through late week with highs in the 70s on Wednesday and 80s on Thursday. Moisture return will remain meager allowing low afternoon humidity values however winds will trend lighter which will help moderate grassland fire weather conditions.

Near record highs continue to appear likely Friday through Sunday as the region becomes more influenced by the highly anomalous ridging developing through the western CONUS. The next cold front passes on Sunday with warm temps aloft and meager moisture return contributing to a dry frontal passage. Post frontal temps will be cooler but likely remaining above normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period for all sites. South winds decrease slightly this evening, but remain breezy overnight as the LLJ strengthens. This will also provide LLWS for all sites. Winds increase again Wednesday morning and afternoon, becoming more southwesterly as a weak front approaches the region. This front may push into portions of northeast Oklahoma during the afternoon and bring more variable winds. SCT to BKN mid and high clouds are likely to persist into Wednesday morning, with clearing occurring during the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 46 78 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 41 73 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 45 75 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 41 78 43 86 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 41 71 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 43 69 49 80 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 44 74 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 43 73 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 F10 46 78 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 43 73 48 83 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-059-064- 065.

AR...None.