textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Cold and windy conditions return this afternoon and tonight behind a cold front. Wind chills are expected to be in the teens by daybreak Sunday across NE OK and NW AR.

- Cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday morning. With the cold air in place, there is a chance for mixed wintry precipitation Monday into Monday night. There is a low to medium chance for minor impacts, mainly in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR.

- Temperatures warm somewhat into the middle of next week before another dry cold front arrives. No winter precipitation is expected with this system.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A chilly night is in store as colder temps and gusty NW winds move into the region behind a cold front. Expect decreasing clouds in some places (except for portions of NE OK and far NW AR where low clouds may persist for longer) and dry conditions. Wind chills will drop into the teens by daybreak Sunday across NE OK and NW AR.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Focus then turns to Monday, when the next storm system is expected to affect the region. Lower clouds will be on the increase from the SW Sunday night, with models showing some chance for some spotty light precipitation during the day Monday across E OK and eventually into NW AR. Model soundings indicate saturation at levels too warm to support ice initiation, thus it should be liquid if it occurs. Using a blend of NAM/HRRR/NBM surface temps, the freezing line is likely to lie just to the north and west of Tulsa Monday morning and over portions of NW AR. Where temps are near freezing, some slick spots are possible so it bears watching.

The highest potential for some impactful wintry weather will be with the stronger waa plume on the western fringe of the warm conveyor ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This is expected to spread across SE OK into west-central AR Monday afternoon and evening. Model soundings indicate a warm layer aloft, and wet- bulbing in the relatively heavier precip will keep surface temps near freezing, especially in the higher terrain areas. It is here where the highest potential for light icing would occur, with low to medium chances for minor impacts that would justify advisory issuance. This area of precip should shift rapidly east and end by midnight Monday night.

Farther to the north and west, there will be some potential for light snow closer the upper system across NE OK and NW AR. However, moisture will be limited here and the system will be moving fast, limiting accumulation potential. In fact, it appears that if there is any snow accumulation, a few tenths (a dusting) at most is possible over far NW AR before the event ends.

Another cold front is expected midweek, but should come through dry. Some more unsettled weather is possible toward the end of the upcoming week. However, by this time the airmass will have modified enough to support just liquid precip. Wintry precip chances have been removed for this time period for now.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Strong cold front now moving into northeast OK will pass TUL/RVS/BVO shortly after 18z, MLC by about 20z and enventually through NW AR sites 22-00z. Ahead of the front, gusty south winds continue with MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings with scattered showers. Fairly abrupt shift to northwest winds with gusts in the 25-35 knot range after the front passage. Does appear flight conditions will improve behind the front as drier airmass pushes in from the northwest, just how quickly remains in question. Current trends suggest eastern OK sites along with KFSM should improve to VFR by 00z, with guidance indicating potential for low ceilings to stick around NW AR considerably longer. Forecast for now does show VFR at all locations after 12z Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 24 37 28 37 / 0 0 10 30 FSM 28 44 29 38 / 0 0 10 30 MLC 26 41 29 40 / 0 0 20 30 BVO 21 35 24 35 / 0 0 0 30 FYV 23 38 25 37 / 0 0 10 30 BYV 23 36 24 33 / 0 0 0 40 MKO 26 39 29 37 / 0 0 10 30 MIO 23 35 26 35 / 0 0 10 30 F10 25 38 29 37 / 0 0 10 30 HHW 28 44 32 38 / 0 0 20 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ054>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010- 011.