textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 113 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Hot and humid weather will settle in through Thursday with heat impacts likely each day.

- Thunderstorm chances and a severe weather threat return late Thursday into Friday night.

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and a low severe weather risk will continue into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tonight) Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Ongoing activity on the western edge of the decaying MCS will continue to shift east this afternoon. A very low chance of additional pop-up showers will be possible across far southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, however proximity to the building ridge will preclude any mentionable PoPs. Another MCS is forecast to develop overnight across northern Kansas with development and propagation to the southeast. With a southwesterly low level jet in place and an axis of elevated instability extending into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas opted to leave low (<20%) PoPs in place after 09Z.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The mid-level ridge will amplify across the region on Tuesday with plenty of sunshine helping temperatures climb to around 90 or above. Afternoon heat index values will likely reach or exceed 105 degrees across portions of northeast Okalhoma and the Arkansas River Valley where a Heat Advisory has been posted. Additional heat headlines are expected through Thursday despite height rises being limited as a strong trough develops over the Intermountain West into the northern Rockies. Thursday looks to be the hottest day temperature-wise after very warm overnight lows with no relief from the humidity. Thunderstorm activity forming across the High Plains along the leading edge of the approaching trough may approach the area Tuesday night and Wednesday night but PoPs remain below 10%.

Medium-range guidance is in agreement on general W-E flow across the Plains through weekend with a frontal boundary making progress south into the forecast area late Thursday into the overnight Friday. Thunderstorms chances will increase with the front and hang around through the remainder of the forecast as disturbances pass along the southern periphery of the main belt of westerlies just to our north. Multiple rounds of rainfall and low end severe weather are possible within this pattern through the weekend as temperatures settle back into the 80s taking some of the edge off the heat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to wane across northwest AR, and no further impacts on terminals are expected. VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with gusty south winds through this afternoon. There is some low cloud potential around sunrise from southeast OK into northwest AR and patchy fog is also possible in valleys sheltered from the south winds, both of which may result in MVFR conditions at least briefly in those locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 90 77 91 77 / 10 10 0 0 FSM 91 76 93 76 / 20 10 0 0 MLC 90 78 91 78 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 90 76 92 77 / 30 10 0 0 FYV 87 76 89 76 / 60 10 0 0 BYV 86 73 89 73 / 80 20 0 0 MKO 89 75 90 75 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 89 75 91 75 / 70 20 0 0 F10 89 75 90 75 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 90 76 90 76 / 0 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ055>063-067- 154-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-219-220.