textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1129 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Hot and humid conditions peak on Independence Day. Heat advisory headlines likely across much of the area.

- Low storms chances continue Friday afternoon primarily across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Higher rain chances and greater coverage arrive late Saturday into Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The anomalous mid-level ridge across the eastern CONUS begins to weaken as heights start to rise across the southern Rockies. The forecast area will largely remain in a persistent pattern during the transition with deeper moisture oriented across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Expect isolated thunderstorms to form again Friday afternoon within the moist axis and like Thursday the strongest activity will be associated with gusty winds and heavy downpours. Thursday saw dewpoints increase a degree or two from the previous day which pushed the heat index at some locations above 105F. The latest guidance suggests more high level clouds Friday afternoon which could offset temperatures some adding more uncertainty to where heat advisory criteria would be met. Based on expected limited coverage will opt to forgo an advisory for now. As dewpoints trends and cloud cover become more certain, a short term heat advisory may be in order.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Any ongoing showers or storm activity at the beginning of the period will likely dissipate quickly Friday evening leaving another warm and muggy night. Temperatures Saturday are expected to be the warmest of the period as both H8 temps and mid-level heights rise in response the the building ridge across New Mexico. With highs warming into the mid 90s, heat indices are likely to reach 105-110F across a good portion of northeast Oklahoma into the Arkansas River Valley. Some isolated storms will remain possible across far southeast Oklahoma into the terrain of northwest Arkansas where some residual mid- level moisture will reside, otherwise, a dry forecast is maintained. Better rain and storm chances arrive late Saturday into early Sunday as a shortwave drops into northwest flow aloft across Kansas toward northeast Oklahoma. Deep layer shear will increase during this time to help sustain the activity and bring at least chance PoPs along the Kansas border into northwest Arkansas. A weak frontal boundary or outflow is likely to move south and hang around through the day Sunday to maintain shower and storms with coverage increasing into the overnight hours as another MCS looks to form nearby and drop into northern portions of the area. The ridge to our west attempts rebuilds though shortwaves rotating around the periphery combined with seasonally high moisture and instability will keep scattered primarily diurnal showers and storms in the forecast through Tuesday. Cloud cover and precip Sunday through Tuesday will keep temperatures closer to seasonal averages before the threat of dangerously high heat indices return by midweek.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Mid and high clouds will increase throughout the day, especially across E OK sites, with diurnal scattered cumulus also developing by mid morning across all sites. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon across SE OK into NW AR terminals, but coverage is too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Otherwise, southerly winds around 10 knots will prevail through the afternoon, before dropping off after sunset.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 93 77 97 76 / 10 0 10 20 FSM 94 76 95 76 / 20 10 10 10 MLC 93 76 95 77 / 20 0 10 10 BVO 93 75 96 73 / 0 0 10 40 FYV 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 10 20 BYV 90 72 91 71 / 20 10 20 20 MKO 92 75 95 75 / 20 0 10 10 MIO 91 74 94 73 / 10 0 10 30 F10 92 74 95 74 / 10 0 10 10 HHW 91 74 93 74 / 20 10 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.