textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the work week. Heat Advisories are in effect Wednesday.

- Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds, especially across southeast Oklahoma.

- Low afternoon shower/storm chances mainly across NW AR through Thursday. Higher rain potential arrives this weekend, along with cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Outflow from the storms this afternoon across NW OK is pushing into NE OK this evening. There will not be much fanfare with this boundary, with a wind shift to the northwest and a gust 10 to 20 mph being the main effect. Storm chances are minimal tonight with nighttime cooling likely precluding development.

CAMs have been consistent in showing better coverage of afternoon showers and storms on Wednesday, especially across NW AR. A pocket of better deep-layer moisture (higher PWATs) will wrap around the western side of the near-record strong upper ridge over the southeast CONUS. Another signal noted in the 00Z data is the potential for isolated development on what is left of the outflow boundary, likely retreating west and positioned close to I-35 in the afternoon. Inserted some slight chances N and W of Tulsa as well.

Low level thermal fields show slight cooling from the southeast for Wednesday. Also, depending on shower and storm coverage and how quickly it develops over NW AR, this could shave a degree or two off the highs. For E OK, stuck pretty close to persistence as was given by the model blend (NBM). Forecast heat indices warrant yet another heat advisory for much of eastern OK and west-central AR.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The SE CONUS ridge center will shift west and will be more overhead toward the end of the week. Before this occurs, CAMs suggest one more day of low afternoon shower/storm chances mainly across NW AR Thursday, before another hot and dry day Friday. The multi-model ensemble means still show a front pushing into the region late in this upcoming weekend into early next week with increasing rain/storm chances. This will hopefully put an end to the daily heat advisories for the summer.

Lacy

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Scattered to broken mid level clouds develop across the CWA today, and then fade away this evening as passing high clouds are forecast tonight. A slight chance of convection is forecast this afternoon for mainly far eastern Oklahoma and also northwest Arkansas, with a more isolated potential over northeast Oklahoma. Will continue to keep northwest Arkansas TAF sites dry due to limited anticipated coverage and uncertainty of impacts to any one terminal. However, timing wise the potential looks to generally be 20z-01z and decrease with the loss of daytime heating. Southerly winds remain common into this evening and the become more light/variable tonight. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions should prevail through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 100 77 99 77 / 10 0 10 0 FSM 102 76 102 74 / 20 10 20 0 MLC 102 76 100 75 / 10 0 10 0 BVO 100 72 99 71 / 10 0 10 0 FYV 99 72 97 71 / 20 10 20 0 BYV 97 74 97 73 / 30 10 20 0 MKO 103 74 102 74 / 10 0 10 0 MIO 99 74 97 73 / 10 0 10 0 F10 100 74 99 74 / 10 0 10 0 HHW 99 75 98 74 / 10 0 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>058-060>071-073>075-172-176-254-272-276-354- 376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.