textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Hot and humid conditions peak on Independence Day. Heat Advisory remains in effect for parts of eastern Oklahoma across most of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.

- Low storm chances continue Saturday afternoon primarily across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Higher storm chances/ coverage and severe weather potential is expected Saturday evening into Sunday morning and could impact the Independence Day holiday festivities.

- Near normal temperatures Sunday into early next week, increasing again mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Storms this afternoon have died off with the loss of daytime heating, and the remainder of the night should be quiet. The models for several days have pegged Saturday as the hottest day, relatively speaking. A northeastward expansion of the LLTR is expected from the Panhandles across southern KS and northern OK ahead of a frontal boundary over KS. This will allow the mercury to climb a few more degrees on Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s across much of eastern OK and west-central AR. The one fly in the ointment will be across far NE OK near the KS border, where potential outflow from overnight storms over KS could keep temps relatively cooler there. Forecast heat indices are expected reach advisory levels across east-central and northeast OK, as well as the lower Ark River Valley of west-central AR.

There should be some spotty afternoon storms on Saturday, much like there was this afternoon, mainly from SE OK into NW AR. Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours are the main threats.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The general idea of an increase in storm coverage Saturday afternoon and into the evening along a front over southern KS and eventually into northern OK is present in much of the model data. This is all in response to a passing shortwave trough over the Midwest. There is also good agreement amongst the CAMs (RRFS, HRRR) and the GFS that an MCS will evolve from these storms and track south into the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning. With increasing flow aloft from the passing wave, deep layer shear may be sufficient for more organized discrete storms initially, before storms congeal into a complex and come south. Large hail and locally damaging wind from the initial storms will transition to a damaging wind threat with any complex (or complexes) that organizes. The faster timing of the storms from recent CAM data suggests the activity could impact the July 4th holiday evening festivities.

The MCS should shove the effective boundary southward Sunday and could focus more storms by Sunday afternoon over portions of the region, depending on how it evolves over our area that morning. These storms could also grow upscale and drop south toward the Red River by Sunday evening.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will dive more southeast by early next week around ridging aloft over the Southwest. By Monday afternoon, this trough axis will be just east of our area, suggesting the best chance for afternoon storms will be east of the forecast area as well. Pop-up afternoon storm chances return Tuesday and Wednesday. Another shortwave trough sliding across the Midwest Thursday could lead to increased storm chances with its associated front for late next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period with scattered mid and high cloud into the afternoon. Winds will generally remain around or less than 10 knots out of the south to southwest during the day. A complex of thunderstorms are expected to develop across southern Kansas by late afternoon and track toward NE OK sites during the evening hours at the end of the TAF period. Any storms will cause reductions in VSBY along with gusty winds.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 97 75 89 73 / 10 70 40 20 FSM 95 75 93 74 / 20 30 30 50 MLC 96 76 92 73 / 10 40 40 40 BVO 96 72 88 70 / 10 70 30 10 FYV 92 72 88 69 / 20 40 40 40 BYV 92 71 87 69 / 20 40 30 40 MKO 95 74 90 71 / 10 50 40 40 MIO 94 72 87 69 / 20 60 50 20 F10 96 74 90 71 / 10 50 60 30 HHW 94 74 93 74 / 20 10 20 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>067-070-071-073-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.