textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue the next several days. Saturday night is expected to have the greatest potential for excessive rainfall and severe weather.

- After the several rounds of rain and storms, the flood threat near creeks and streams will increase, especially Saturday into Sunday.

- Overall drier weather is expected much of next week. Initially below normal temperatures will climb above normal by the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A cold front pushed through this morning with extensive shower and thunderstorm activity for much of the area. This activity is now diminishing, with the front flipping direction and moving back north as a warm front. Deep moisture and instability will spread back north into the afternoon. With modest wind shear in place and somewhat long hodographs, the atmosphere will support the potential for thunderstorms, and even severe thunderstorms. However, lift will be modest and localized near the warm front. Most CAMs are showing relatively little activity, but there is some signal so it bears watchings. If storms were to develop, it appears northeast Oklahoma would be the favored location, and timing would suggest late afternoon or early evening. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Overnight tonight, a decaying MCS will move in from the northwest. Most CAM guidance breaks this system apart as it approaches, and that is the most likely outcome, but maintained some pops in case it can hold together a little longer than expected. The most likely area to see showers and storms overnight is the northern third of the forecast area. Lows will remain mild, in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Any lingering showers and storms should wrap up by midday Saturday. With humid southerly flow in place, temperatures will rise to the low to mid 90s and dew points into the mid to upper 70s. The Heat Index will reach the low 100s, with the potential for a Heat Advisory for portions of the area. An upper level shortwave trough and associated surface front will move through Saturday night into Sunday morning. Like we've seen the last few days, this front will push into a very moist and unstable airmass. The expectation is that another round of widespread heavy rain will occur along with at least some isolated severe weather potential. Elected to issue a Flood Watch for a portion of the area that overlaps the recent heavy rain footprint and the corridor where model guidance points to additional heavy rain.

Cooler and drier weather will ensue by Monday as the front slides south and out of the area, and northwest flow keeps the heat south. Upper level ridging will at least briefly rebuild late in the week, allowing for warmer and more humid weather to return. But into late week and next weekend, ensemble guidance suggests rain chances will resume.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Main concerns this TAF cycle is impacts from convection moving out of the High Plains overnight. Extended Prob30 to KTUL and KRVS with latest guidance suggesting activity will develop further south than earlier expected. Later forecast may need to consider extending activity into northwest AR terminals if trends continue. Scattered low clouds also likely to redevelop overnight across southeast OK into western AR. Coverage and height remain low confidence so kept broken VFR conditions from earlier forecast. Gusty south winds will be common Saturday afternoon with VFR conditions forecast through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 75 91 69 76 / 30 20 100 40 FSM 75 92 74 82 / 20 10 90 50 MLC 76 91 73 80 / 10 0 90 60 BVO 72 91 66 76 / 30 30 100 10 FYV 73 87 69 77 / 30 30 100 40 BYV 70 86 67 75 / 30 50 100 30 MKO 73 89 70 78 / 20 10 100 50 MIO 71 88 66 76 / 40 50 90 10 F10 73 90 69 76 / 20 10 90 60 HHW 75 91 75 83 / 10 0 50 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for OKZ056>058-062-063-068-069.

AR...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-010.