textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 619 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Shower and storm chances continue into the early part of the week in southeast Oklahoma, and temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals through the middle of the week.

- Hot and mostly dry conditions build back in by late week through next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas this afternoon, with rain chances shifting into far southeast Oklahoma by this evening and overnight. Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Monday and Tuesday across parts of southeast Oklahoma, otherwise dry weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures will prevail. An easterly wave tracking west to the south of a strong upper level ridge over the northern U.S. will increase shower and storm chances Wednesday across much of the area, with temperatures remaining near or slightly below normal.

By late week through next weekend, the upper ridge will shift more to the south and southeast, resulting in a return to hot and dry weather to eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. As has been the case much of the summer thus far, the NBM may be a bit too hot towards the end of the forecast period, But it will be hot regardless, with afternoon heat index values back up into the triple digits in most places by next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Diurnal CU expected to dissipate across nern OK and nwrn AR early this evening, and low/mid clouds gradually trend downward sern OK and west central AR overnight. Overall VFR until late tonight, when light fog likely to develop sern OK and nwrn AR, resulting in MVFR VSBY with some IFR possible for several hours MLC/FSM. Fog to dissipate mid morning Monday where it develops, with diurnal CU again expected most sites. Potential for SHRA/TSRA at any site is too low to mention, as much of that activity should remain south of MLC/FSM this forecast period. Wind will generally be light/variable to calm tonight, then east to northeasterly Monday at less than 10kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 71 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 73 93 72 93 / 0 10 10 10 MLC 70 91 70 91 / 10 20 10 20 BVO 66 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 66 90 65 90 / 0 10 0 10 BYV 67 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 70 91 69 91 / 0 10 0 10 MIO 68 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 F10 70 90 68 90 / 0 10 0 20 HHW 71 90 69 90 / 50 20 20 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.