textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1131 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- Low shower and storm chances through Monday evening, especially southeast of I-44. Limited severe risk this evening.

- Numerous showers and storms Tuesday. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

- Cooler temperatures Wednesday with continued low rain chances through the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A broad upper level trough across the northwestern USA and associated surface low in the lee of the Rockies will continue to induce deep southerly flow across the area. Low level moisture will increase with dew points rising to near 70F. A series of weak shortwaves will pass through the area providing some limited lift. Large instability will develop, but given the limited lift, lack of obvious surface forcing, and fairly dry air just above the boundary layer, storms will have a difficult time initiating. If any storms can develop, there will be plenty of shear and instability to allow storms to become severe. Maintained low 15-20% PoPs to account for this possibility, with the relative highest chance this evening. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s with lows in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The same general pattern will remain in place Monday, just windier. A Wind Advisory is posted for portions of northeast Oklahoma. There will be some improvement in forcing, however, as the dry line moves into western Oklahoma. Sporadic convective initiation may occur along the line, with any storms that develop moving east into the forecast area during the evening hours. Most CAMs that show this focus across southeast OK, but any location along the dry line will be in play. A few CAMs hint at some isolated storms popping up within the warm sector, though this remains uncertain. Like today, any storms that develop will possess an abundance of moisture, wind shear, and instability, so they may become severe. Large hail and damaging winds would be the more likely hazards.

A cold front will then move into the forecast area Tuesday morning. Storms will have grown upscale into a line by the time the front reaches the forecast area. This will promote the threat of heavy rain and strong winds as it moves through. In general, the shear vector will likely be mostly parallel to the front, which will limit the overall tornado threat. However, if any individual segments bow out, the wind shear will promote the potential for QLCS tornadoes as well. Models remain uncertain on the exact progression of the front, but some reinvigoration is expected to the south of it due to daytime heating Tuesday afternoon. This will continue the severe weather threat until the cold front clears the area.

Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front, with highs Wednesday through Friday mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Rain chances along with some thunder potential will persist as moisture rides above the elevated frontal surface and a passing upper level trough induces some lift. Rainfall will be fairly widespread during this period, but generally not overly heavy either. Upper level ridging will gradually return into the weekend, though remaining fairly weak. This will promote gradual warming and drying into the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Overall, this will be a low-confidence aviation forecast. VFR continues to prevail across the district early this evening. This should gradually change later tonight and overnight tonight as MVFR cigs develop and overspread much of the area through daybreak Monday. Low ceilings are expected to mix-out and lift across eastern OK by late morning, likely sticking around over the AR terminals into the afternoon. Latest model guidance shows brief, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically occurring this evening and overnight; most terminals should stay dry, but did include -SHRA at KTUL and KRVS overnight. A better chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur near or just before sunrise Monday morning with models shows an uptick in convection. Included PROB30 groups for lightning/thunder mid-late morning for the OK terminals and through the afternoon at the western AR terminals. Forecast confidence is low on timing and duration of precipitation chances and TAFs may need to be amended and adjusted. Ceilings should gradually lift and become widespread VFR by mid-late afternoon. South winds will remain breezy and gusty through the period, with gusts in excess of 30 knots for a few locations Monday afternoon.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 87 68 73 / 20 10 60 70 FSM 73 88 71 82 / 30 20 20 90 MLC 74 87 72 79 / 20 30 20 90 BVO 72 86 61 70 / 20 20 70 50 FYV 72 84 71 79 / 20 20 20 90 BYV 72 85 72 80 / 20 20 20 90 MKO 73 86 70 76 / 20 10 30 90 MIO 73 86 68 73 / 10 10 60 80 F10 73 87 70 75 / 20 20 30 80 HHW 73 86 72 81 / 30 30 20 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ055-056- 059>061-064-154-254-354.

AR...None.