textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Low storm chances Tuesday night and again Friday through the weekend. Limited severe potential exists this weekend.

- Temps near to above mid May normals forecast through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday ) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Surface high pressure over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early afternoon Monday will remain common into early Tuesday morning before exiting to the east/southeast. In response, mostly clear conditions and light winds are expected into Tuesday morning. Monday afternoon temperatures of mid 70s to low 80s and low temperatures in the 50s Tuesday morning are forecast. As the center of high pressure moves out of the region, southerly winds quickly return across the CWA during the day Tuesday. Continued mostly clear skies combined with winds gusting 10 to 25 mph will aid afternoon temperatures climbing back into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

During the day Tuesday, an area of low pressure is progged to drop southeast across the Midwest and the Great Lakes region. This will push a trailing weak frontal boundary southward and into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday night. Latest indications continue to hint at low shower/storm chances mainly over far northeast Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas generally 03-09z. Limited thunder potentials are mainly through late evening before elevated instability weakens. Deep layer shear and moderately strong lapse rates could aid in the development of brief window for hail over the northeast corner of the CWA. However, organized severe potentials are currently not anticipated.

The boundary tries to sag through the region during the day Wednesday before lifting back northeast Thursday with a ridge of high pressure building over the southern Plains. A quick return of southerly low level flow and increasing low level moisture back into the region Thursday, with the retreating boundary and increasing warm advection, could potentially create a few light rain showers. For now though will continue to keep PoPs below mentionable criteria Thursday.

Ridge of high pressure shifts eastward for Friday with a couple of shortwaves lifting northeast over the western periphery of the ridge during the weekend. Latest model solutions continue to differ on timing, strength, and location of these disturbances Friday through Sunday. With the CWA west of the ridge, gusty southerly winds will help low level moisture to continue to spread into the region along with an increase in instability. An unstable atmosphere would support at least a limited severe potential this weekend ahead of a cold front forecast to move in early next week. With the uncertainty mentioned, will continue with slight to chance PoPs for the majority of the CWA Friday night through Monday. Those with outdoor plans this weekend should continue to monitor latest trends as the forecast will continue to change over the coming days.

Temperatures for the second half of the week through the weekend are forecast to climb above the seasonal average for mid May. High temperatures in the mid 80s to potentially low 90s are currently forecast Thursday through Sunday. However, depending on the amount of cloud cover and precip chances these temperatures could be a little too warm Friday through Sunday. Latest runs of the NBM have trended slightly cooler, while some other guidance remains warmer. Again, these conditions will continue to be updated through the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with light winds turning southerly and increasing Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 55 83 63 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 80 53 84 59 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 80 55 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 78 50 84 59 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 79 50 81 59 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 76 52 81 58 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 79 53 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 77 51 80 59 / 0 0 0 20 F10 77 53 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 78 54 81 58 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.