textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Moderate rain/low storm (non-severe) chances linger into Wednesday, mainly south of I-40.

- An unsettled weather pattern is expected starting Thursday and continuing into the upcoming weekend. Multiple opportunities for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A lull in precipitation across southeast Oklahoma will give way to more scattered showers later tonight and into Wednesday morning, generally south of I-40 again as another weak mid level wave tracks across North Texas. Additional amounts should remain pretty light, mostly less than a quarter inch. A rumble of thunder or two still remains possible near the Red River, but chances are low at this point. A milder night is in store areawide owing to the widespread cloud cover and persistent southerly flow allowing an increase in low level moisture. Any precipitation should weaken and shift eastward by midday into the early afternoon as shortwave ridging builds across eastern Oklahoma downstream of an advancing longwave trough moving into the Rocky Mountain Region. Mostly pleasant conditions are expected by afternoon as temperatures hold in the 70s for most locations under mostly cloudy skies. Southerly winds will once again become gusty during the afternoon hours Wednesday. A mild and quiet night Wednesday will set the stage for a more active period heading into the extended period.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

An active pattern will commence beginning Thursday as a potent mid/upper level wave ejects out of the Rockies and across the Plains by Thursday afternoon. In response, a surface low will deepen over the High Plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas, with a cold front extending northeast and a sharpening dryline extending southward through western Oklahoma. Scattered war advection showers could occur Thursday morning across parts of eastern Oklahoma on the nose of a strong low level jet, but severe weather is not expected with this activity. Model consensus remains persistent on the best forcing and dynamics associated with the upper trough remaining well north and west of the forecast area during the day Thursday near the triple point. Very warm mid level temperatures are forecast over much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas creating a strong capping inversion over the area. Thus, storm chances remain very low during the daytime and early evening hours in the absence of stronger forcing. A secondary jet streak is progged to nose across the dryline into western and central Oklahoma by late afternoon which could initiate a storm or two along the dryline. If a storm can develop, a robust convective environment will be in place and supercells will be likely with all hazards of severe weather possible. Therefore, will maintain low end PoPs across western portions of the forecast area for any storm that might track out of central Oklahoma Thursday evening.

Better storm chances will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning as the surface cold front sags into the region. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop across Kansas and track southeastward into the overnight hours Thursday. Severe weather still appears possible with this activity, though most forecast soundings still show a robust cap over the region. This would suggest a more limited threat, mainly in the form of damaging wind gusts and maybe some small hail. However, any weakness in the cap could lead to a limited tornado threat as low level shear intensifies during the night. Heavy rain will also be a threat as storms train along the sagging frontal boundary with locally 2-3 inches of rain possible.

The forecast gets a little less certain heading into the weekend. The frontal boundary is progged to stall in the vicinity with modestly strong zonal flow developing aloft. This will keep shower and storm chances in the forecast for several days. Depending on where the boundary sets up each day, certain locations will likely also see a continued severe threat both Friday and Saturday. Favored areas will be along and south of the frontal zone, though elevated hail potential will also exist with stronger storms north of the boundary. Sunday could see a more significant severe threat as another shortwave trough ejects out over the Plains, while the surface boundary surges back north bringing the whole forecast area back into the warm sector. Details will be ironed out in the coming days, but all days from Thursday through Sunday bear watching for increasing severe trends. More settled conditions follow the Sunday system for early next week before the pattern reloads by midweek. Temperatures remain near to just above seasonal averages through the extended period.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Low clouds currently impact all but far NW AR terminals and a further eastward expansion of the MVFR is expected overnight. Areas of IFR ceilings and fog are noted near the Red River and these lower flight conditions are most likely to impact KMLC through sunrise. Ceilings remain MVFR past sunrise with a gradual improvement into low VFR ceilings by late morning or early afternoon. Any scattered showers that develop overnight into Wednesday will be only brief visibility impacts as the chance of any thunderstorms remains very low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 73 63 78 64 / 0 10 10 60 FSM 77 60 82 66 / 20 0 10 60 MLC 74 63 79 67 / 10 10 10 40 BVO 74 60 79 60 / 0 10 20 60 FYV 74 58 79 63 / 10 0 10 60 BYV 75 59 78 64 / 0 0 10 60 MKO 73 61 78 65 / 10 10 10 50 MIO 74 61 78 62 / 0 0 10 70 F10 72 63 78 65 / 10 10 20 40 HHW 73 62 78 67 / 30 10 10 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.