textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1157 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- A strong cold front Sunday will bring much cooler conditions and strong gusty northwest winds to the area.

- Increased thunderstorm chances, with a low potential for severe weather, along the front in southeast Oklahoma, western Arkansas Sunday.

- Light accumulations of snow in possible northwest AR and extreme northeast OK Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Winds continue to gradually decrease, but conditions remain quite dry at this hour with some spots still noting RH in the 25-35% range. Gradual improvement in fire weather conditions overnight will continue with winds finally expected to become light and temps dropping into the 40s and RH generally above 60% by morning.

Weak surface boundary will result in shift to northeast winds at lighter speeds for Friday. This will have minimal impact on temperatures with most areas warming into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The boundary will lift back north with winds once again increasing out of the south Saturday. Fire weather will be offset by rising humidity during this time frame with low level moisture beginning to return. Gusty south winds will result in very mild conditions Saturday night as a potent shortwave moves across the Central Rockies. Continued influx of moisture in advance of an approaching strong cold front will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm chances as early as Sunday morning with higher potential arriving Sunday afternoon with the passage of the front.

Strong and gusty northwest winds behind the front supported by 50-60 knots of flow at 850mb, should reach advisory levels Sunday, and some data suggests western parts of the forecast area could even get close to high wind warning for a time Sunday afternoon. Blustery conditions expected as well with temperatures dropping quickly from 60s and 70s into the 40s. As the upper wave deepens to the northeast, a window will exist for some lingering precip Sunday night, with likely change over to some light snow across northwest AR and possibly extreme northeast OK. While significant impacts are not expected, confidence has increased some in potential for light accumulation. By Monday morning, with continued windy conditions, temperatures will fall into the 20s, with some upper teens possible.

Once the system departs, a quick transitions back to warmer weather will take place as an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure (592 dam) builds over the southwest and expands into the plains by the end of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue with diminishing winds tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 46 72 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 42 74 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 46 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 40 71 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 42 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 45 69 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 43 72 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 42 68 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 F10 45 72 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 43 72 49 77 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.