textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 642 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- A big shift in the weather pattern will bring hot, humid and dry weather starting this afternoon, continuing into next week. Heat advisory headlines are in effect for portions of the area Sunday, and may be needed in the days following.

- There will be low chances for diurnally driven storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR during the latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A shift in the weather pattern is underway, with deep cyclonic flow over the western CONUS raising upper heights downstream over the Plains. Deepening surface low pressure over NE CO/SE WY is bringing southerly winds throughout the Plains, and the old boundary that was focusing storms across our region is lifting north away from the region. An MCV has moved into SW MO and could focus afternoon storms ahead of it, but this activity will likely be east of the forecast area. High dewpoints currently reside over eastern and northern OK, likely aided in some part to evapotranspiration of our wet soils. Forecast high temps for today, taking into account the higher dewpoints, yield advisory level heat indices along the highway 75 corridor in NE OK this afternoon and a heat headline was issued.

Southerly winds and high dewpoints will keep overnight lows fairly toasty, but probably not as toasty as the model blend (NBM) forecast, which is at the upper fringe of the guidance envelope. Used a combination of CONSMOS and the NBM 25th %ile to bring the forecast down to the median of the available guidance.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Rising upper heights continue over the south-central CONUS on Sunday, with an H5 ridge center forming initially over the Mississippi Valley. The H5 ridge influence will broaden with its center shifting over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as the week progresses. In the low levels, lee side low pressure and a tight gradient over the Plains will bring breezy conditions each day. The LLTR is not expected to expand east much, as would expected with the expected pattern aloft. From a temperature perspective, forecast highs will not change much in the coming days. The need for heat headlines will hinge on the dewpoint forecast. Coming out of a wet pattern, the dewpoints may end up higher than the model blends and adjustments may be needed until we get a feel for how this will go. That said, there was guidance for Sunday clustered near the 75th %ile of the spread and this was used. After crunching the numbers, the most likely area to meet heat advisory criteria is in the lower Ark River Valley and an advisory was issued there after coordination with a neighboring office. Expansion may be needed if adjustments to the dewpoint forecast are made.

A dry forecast will be maintained through the middle of next week, with any activity within the lee trough out west staying west, and a broad surface ridge over the Southeast and Gulf Coast keeping our area dry. Toward the end of next week, the surface ridge will contract a bit, and a better return flow of moisture is expected from the southeast. The data indicates mainly afternoon storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR during this time.

The position of the upper ridge varies in the guidance by next weekend. The ensemble means suggest it retrogrades over our area and possibly back to the Rockies while the 12Z GFS keeps the ridge firmly planted over the eastern CONUS. Regardless, the majority of the data has at least low chances for rain/storms over our area during this time.

Lacy

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Remaining cumulus clouds are expected to dissipate this evening with scattered to broken high clouds remaining common through the TAF period. There is potential for a window for ceilings of 2500-3500ft developing over southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas Sunday morning before dissipating early Sunday afternoon. For now will hold off on mentioning due to uncertainty of coverage. Breezy southerly winds also continue through the night, and become gusty again during the day Sunday. The exception to this is KFSM where more easterly/variable winds are forecast tonight. Winds also remain gusty/strong overnight and will carry LLWS for all TAF sites tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 93 79 93 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 77 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 78 93 79 94 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 75 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 73 89 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 74 89 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 77 92 77 92 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 76 91 77 92 / 0 0 0 0 F10 76 92 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ074-176-272.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055-056-060-061- 067-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220.