textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 508 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through Saturday.

- Widespread hard freeze with medium potential for a localized killing freeze in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Sunday night/Monday morning. Noticeably colder temperatures behind Saturday/s cold front will prevail from Saturday night through Monday night.

- Near to just above normal temperatures make a return by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday Night) Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

A weak mid level shortwave over the Central Plains Thursday night will continue to move east/southeast through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Friday morning. A trailing weak frontal boundary currently positioned from the Texas Panhandle through northwest Oklahoma to eastern Kansas and then extending northeast into the Upper Midwest is expected to make it into northeast Oklahoma around 09z Friday morning. Latest indications show the mid level trof axis out ahead the surface boundary, which should push the low level jet and area of warm advection east of the CWA before the boundary can interact with them. Thus, the isolated precip potential noted 24hrs ago over far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas looks to remain less than 10 percent into Friday morning. Also ahead of the boundary, low temperatures early Friday morning in the 50s are anticipated through the CWA.

The weak boundary moves across the CWA through the morning hours Friday and exits southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early afternoon Friday. Greater moisture advection as well as any precip potential should remain east of the CWA. Meanwhile, behind the boundary, northerly winds transporting a drier airmass filters over the CWA. These conditions however should not impact afternoon temperatures much with forecast highs in the 70s again. Low temperatures Friday night should be slightly cooler compared to Thursday night with light winds and drier low level air in place.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

The main impacts to this forecast package will be with a wave and associated strong cold front dropping southeast through the Plains Saturday, and a second reinforcing colder airmass dropping into the region Sunday.

Latest model solutions indicate a wave, currently moving into the Pacific Northwest/Western Canada, drops southeast through the Central Plains Saturday. The associated cold front enters the CWA Saturday afternoon and exits Saturday evening. Ahead of the boundary, limited moisture return should keep the frontal passage dry, while temperatures warm into the 70s again. Behind the boundary, winds shift out of the north/northwest with gusts of 20 to near 30 mph into Saturday evening. These winds look to weaken some into the overnight hours before increasing again with the secondary cold airmass spilling into the region.

This secondary push of cold air is associated with an area of low pressure over the Hudson Bay area dislodging Saturday and spreading southward Saturday night/Sunday over the Central U.S. This colder airmass along with a Canadian surface high are progged to reach the CWA early Sunday morning with afternoon temperatures Sunday in the 40s for most locations. Parts of southeast Oklahoma could struggle to reach lower 50s. As this secondary push of colder air makes its way into the region, there are some indications of this airmass squeezing a few rain drops and or a few snow flakes out of the limited moisture over northwest Arkansas Sunday morning. Model soundings indication the majority of the moisture Sunday morning is close to/below the dendritic growth zone, which could limit snow potentials. However, with the strength of the cold and surface temps in the 30s over far Northwest Arkansas Sunday morning, an isolated potential for a few snowflakes cannot be ruled out at this time. For now though will keep PoPs below mentionable criteria.

Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph Sunday morning should weaken through the day Sunday as the parent trof axis pulls farther off to the east Sunday afternoon/evening. In the wake of the departing trof, the Canadian surface high pressure spreads over the region with mostly clear skies and subsiding winds. These conditions will create a hard freeze with lows in the 20s across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Monday morning. The normal cold spots could see temperatures in the lower 20s and a killing freeze. Thus, Freeze Headlines are likely necessary if these trends continue to hold.

Surface high begins to push southeast of the forecast area during the day Monday with the return of south/southwesterly low level flow Monday night into Tuesday. In response, temperatures look to remain above freezing for much of eastern Oklahoma Monday night, while northwest Arkansas remains near/below freezing under the influence of the western periphery of the surface high. The increasing southerly flow Tuesday will aid in warmer temperatures quickly overtaking the eroding colder airmass with high temperatures back in the 60s/70s. The warming trend looks to continue into the second half of next week with above seasonal average temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Temps have dropped to the dewpoint as skies have cleared across NE OK, and some patchy dense fog has developed. Inserted LIFR fog mention at KRVS and KBVO thru 15Z. A front will push through the region today, switching winds to the N and NW, though speeds should stay relatively light. There may be a brief period of MVFR cigs with the front across W AR this morning, with KFSM having the best chance. Skies should clear out everywhere this afternoon, with some high cloud to stream across the region tonight.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 76 46 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 79 48 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 79 47 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 74 43 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 74 44 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 73 45 72 37 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 76 46 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 73 44 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 F10 76 46 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 78 49 78 47 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.