textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying fuels and periods of gusty winds.

- A stalled weak front will bring widely scattered storm chances across the south and slightly cooler temperatures across the north Monday. Localized strong downburst winds are possible.

- Very hot weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday before another slight cooldown toward the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday Night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The frontal boundary that moved into the region on Sunday will become stationary or very slowly sag southward overnight into Monday morning. Spotty showers continue to fester in the vicinity of the boundary across portions of northwest Arkansas, but most locations will stay dry tonight. A few showers may also try to move into northeast Oklahoma Monday morning from the west, but will likely be weakening and won't make it very far into the area before dissipating. The aforementioned boundary will at least bring slightly cooler temperatures across the north for Monday with locations north of I-40 likely staying under 100 degrees for the first time in over a week. Near and south of the boundary, temperatures will remain near or over 100 with building humidity leading to another day of heat headlines for those areas. Again, much like Sunday, isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible near the boundary as it slowly pushes south through the afternoon and early evening. Many locations will still remain dry, but some could see a brief downpour. Conditions will also be favorable for some gusty winds with any stronger storms. Relatively cooler overnight lows in the 70s will be welcome for Monday night for a brief reprieve from the extreme heat.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The front will lose definition by Tuesday as upper ridging broadens across the Southern Plains. This will bring a return of hot to very hot conditions Tuesday afternoon with areawide heat headlines likely again during this timeframe. While broad ridging will remain planted more or less over the Southern Plains, the center of the ridge will shift over the Four Corners Region on Wednesday, allowing a shortwave trough to drop southeastward through the central CONUS in the northwest flow aloft. This will drive another frontal boundary near the region on Wednesday. Ahead of this boundary, very hot conditions will again develop Wednesday afternoon as a strong low level thermal ridge sets up over central and eastern Oklahoma. This could lead to the hottest day of the year for locations south of the boundary with some locations potentially pushing 110 degrees by late afternoon Wednesday.

Low to medium rain chances will return with the frontal passage as we head into Wednesday night and Thursday, especially across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Widespread meaningful rainfall still appears unlikely, prolonging drought conditions across the region. The front will slowly drift southward through the day Thursday, with relatively cooler conditions to finish out the week. The ridge looks to remain centered to the west through the weekend, possibly allowing some more low rain chances through this time, but uncertainty increases in the evolution of the upper air pattern by the end of the forecast period.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Storm cluster moving into northeast Oklahoma is forecast to weaken mid morning through early afternoon. Gusty winds and brief period of MVFR conditions will be possible with this activity. Thus, will continue with Prob30 group for timing of greater potential. Additional storm chances develop this afternoon and evening mainly along and south of Interstate 40 as a weak frontal boundary slowly sags southward. Localized strong downburst winds and locally heavy rain is possible into this evening. Overall, scattered to overcast mid and high clouds are forecast through the period. Winds vary between west and northeast behind the frontal boundary, while remaining variable ahead of it. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 96 76 103 83 / 40 10 10 0 FSM 102 76 104 76 / 20 10 10 0 MLC 100 76 106 81 / 20 20 10 0 BVO 95 70 103 76 / 40 10 10 0 FYV 96 71 100 77 / 10 10 10 0 BYV 93 70 98 78 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 97 73 102 78 / 20 10 10 0 MIO 93 71 99 78 / 20 10 10 10 F10 97 73 103 79 / 20 20 10 0 HHW 102 76 103 79 / 20 20 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-070-071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ119-120-129-219-220-229.