textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Cooler and lower impact weather to close out this week.

- A storm system is forecast to track east across Texas during the latter part of the week, increasing rain chances mainly south of I-40 Thursday into Friday.

- Thunderstorm chances will return toward the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The much anticipated cold front has finally cleared all of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, bringing cooler and decidedly, lower impact weather to the region. Thunderstorms have developed just south of the Red River late this morning, in response to a weak disturbance moving through the area. A low chance of this potential extending northward into far southeast Oklahoma exists through the afternoon and into early evening, but any strong to severe storms are likely to remain south of the area. Cloud cover will hang on across southeast Oklahoma into the overnight, while some clearing is expected across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. This will lead to a decent gradient in low temperatures with lower 40s to the north and mid 50s to the south.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A period of dry weather areawide will extend past daybreak Thursday, lasting into at least midday, before shower chances increase again across southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon in response to the arrival of an upper level jet max in Central Texas. Lightning potential will likely stay south of the area. The POPs during this time frame have been adjusted upward some using the short-term blended guidance from the lower NBM guidance. A more substantial storm system remains on track to move through Texas late Thursday and into Friday, with another round of showers for mainly areas along and south of I-40. Once again, the lightning potential will be low north of the Red River with this round. Given the rainfall during the day Friday, temperatures will remain quite chilly through the day across southeast Oklahoma, only in the lower 60s at best.

Drier north-northwesterly flow develops across the region by the weekend, pushing any impetus for rain south and east of the area and leading to generally mostly clear skies. South to southwest winds look to make a return Sunday, which will spur a warmup with near to above normal temperatures that extends into next week.

Another storm system looks to organize in the southwestern United States during early next week and move eastward through the area for the middle part of the week. This will lead to an increase in the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Although it is way too early to talk specifics, the overall pattern would support some severe weather potential during this time frame. After all, it's gonna be May.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours, with BKN-OVC high level clouds through the period. Winds stay light to moderate, with occasional gusts around 20 knots, out of north or northeast into this evening and overnight before veering more easterly by mid to late morning Thursday.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 47 68 48 67 / 0 10 10 10 FSM 50 70 51 69 / 0 10 10 20 MLC 50 70 50 66 / 10 20 20 30 BVO 43 68 43 68 / 0 10 10 10 FYV 45 68 43 66 / 0 10 10 10 BYV 45 66 46 64 / 0 10 10 10 MKO 45 68 48 66 / 0 10 10 10 MIO 43 66 45 65 / 0 10 10 10 F10 46 67 48 65 / 0 10 10 20 HHW 55 68 52 61 / 20 50 50 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.