textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1041 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Slightly below average temperatures and mostly dry through the rest of the week.

- Wetter weather pattern arrives Friday night and into the upcoming weekend, before becoming much colder early next week.

- At least low potential for impactful winter weather early next week. Please monitor for forecast updates as more details become available over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

After a chilly start to the day, generally pleasant weather will prevail today with surface high pressure moving eastward across OK. Winds will start off moderately breezy out of the northwest this morning but will become light and variable this afternoon as high pressure shifts over eastern OK and western AR. Slightly below normal temperatures are expected today across the region. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s/near 50 degrees north of I-40 to the mid 50s near the Red River.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A dry airmass will remain in place tonight into Thursday morning. As a result, temperatures are anticipated to drop near or below freezing by sunrise Thursday in most locations. Global models have been consistent in showing a vort max moving through the northwest flow on the backside of the synoptic trough. The vort max should pass just to the north of the area late Wednesday night. Regardless on how close this feature gets, forecast soundings show a very dry boundary layer, and any hydrometeors that develop aloft will likely evaporate before reaching the ground. Will go ahead and maintain silent PoPs (5-10% chance of drizzle/flurries) across far northeast OK and far northwest AR; no impacts expected.

Surface high pressure moves east on Friday and southerly winds return. A lead mid-level shortwave trough moves off the High Plains and across the Red River Valley and will cause height falls by Friday afternoon. At the surface, a lee tough develops and quickly strengthens and results in southerly winds increasing Friday afternoon and evening. The increased low-level southerly flow will rapidly increase low-level moisture, helping develop widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Friday evening/night as the parent trough begins to move over the Plains. Moderate to heavy rainfall will become widespread and persist through much of Saturday and ending west-to-east Saturday night. With a fairly progressive-moving trough, total rainfall amounts from Friday night to Saturday night are expected to remain around an inch or less for most areas, locally up to 2 inches. Therefore, the flooding threat looks to be low at this time.

Forecast confidence continues to increase that another strong cold front will push through the forecast area Saturday afternoon/evening, bringing in the coldest air of the season thus far. Overnight low temperatures will drop near or below freezing each night Saturday night through Monday night, with afternoon highs generally in the 30s and 40s. There remains several discrepancies in model and ensemble data with regards to the synoptic pattern and evolution beyond Saturday. Consensus in recent runs show a shortwave trough ejecting off the Rockies Sunday night or Monday morning. Its position, orientation, and track will all be key in determining precipitation chances and types through the first half of the upcoming workweek. Precipitation chances are expected to increase with the approaching wave, but with so much uncertainty, have decided to keep PoPs low (15-30%), with low chances of mostly a rain/freezing rain/snow mix Sunday night through Tuesday. At this time, exact impacts are still unknown, but at least a low potential does exist for at least some portions of the forecast area. Please be sure to continue to monitor the forecast as this forecast will surely change over the next few days.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with an overall increase in high and mid clouds Wednesday afternoon. Northwest winds will be gusty in a few spots early tonight but generally decrease, becoming light and variable by late in the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 64 34 50 33 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 65 38 54 36 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 66 36 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 63 30 50 28 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 62 32 49 30 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 61 33 48 31 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 63 35 50 33 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 60 31 48 30 / 0 0 0 10 F10 64 35 51 31 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 63 39 55 34 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.