textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 - Cooler temperatures through early next week.

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather returns next week.

- Elevated fire weather concerns develop Tuesday with the return of warm weather and gusty south to southwest winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Seasonably cool conditions will prevail through tonight behind the passage of a frontal boundary that has made its way through the region this morning. A quick moving mid level wave is also progressing from west to east across far northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas this morning. This area of enhanced flow has lead to the development of a narrow band of cloud cover noted across eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. No precipitation is expected form this system as very dry low level air remains in place. Clouds will clear from northwest to southeast this afternoon as more dry air is ushered in behind the advancing boundary and shortwave. Highs this afternoon will be below normal, generally in the upper 40s for most places north of I-40. Locations across southeast Oklahoma are likely experiencing their high currently, with near steady to falling temperatures through the afternoon behind the front. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s across the north to lower 30s across the south, under clear skies.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Another reinforcing shot of cooler air will arrive on Sunday, keeping temps below normal into the beginning part of next week. Winds will become gusty again Sunday afternoon, with gusts of 20-30mph possible across the area. This combined with the very dry air could raise fire weather concerns across the area for a few hours during the afternoon. A seasonably strong surface high will drop south over the region Sunday night into Monday morning, leading to the coldest night of the period. Locations across the north will likely drop into the teens, especially across northwest Arkansas. Wind chill values could approach single digits in some locations, though winds will generally be light overnight Sunday into Monday.

Monday will see a day of transition as the surface high works eastward and light southerly flow returns to the region. Look for temps to remain below normal for Monday while some places across eastern Oklahoma may see a late day surge toward near normal temperatures in the mid to upper 50s as south winds increase. Mid level ridging builds over the western CONUS through mid week, leaving much of the Plains in northwesterly flow aloft. This will generally lead to a quick rebound in temperatures for the last part of the forecast, with highs returning above normal to finish out the week. Fire weather concerns will increase again on Tuesday as southwesterly winds intensify...gusting to around 30mph by the afternoon. Slow moisture will recovery will see min RH values dip into the 20-25 percent range, causing at least elevated fire conditions Tuesday afternoon. Winds relax a bit on Wednesday as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Low rain chances will accompany this frontal passage across northeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas, but any rain amounts look very light and not widespread at this time.

The front will knock temps back a bit on Thursday, but still above normal for late February. Gusty northerly winds and continued dry air in place will continue the fire weather threat into late week as well. A stronger front looks on track for next weekend, though rain chances still look very limited to none with this system as well.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. North to northwest winds will gust to near or above 20 knots during the day Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 26 48 20 48 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 30 50 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 30 50 23 53 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 22 47 15 47 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 23 43 16 47 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 25 41 17 43 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 26 48 21 48 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 23 42 17 43 / 0 0 0 0 F10 27 50 21 50 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 33 52 26 54 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.