textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1141 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the work week. Heat Advisories are in effect today and Wednesday.

- Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds, especially across southeast Oklahoma.

- Low afternoon shower/storm chances across the higher terrain of NW AR through Wednesday. Higher rain potential arrives this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A cold front was draped across KS and up toward Lake Superior this morning as the parent low advances into E Canada. This front will continue to inch closer to the local area today but weaken with time. Afternoon and evening convection is expected along the boundary, though much of this should remain north of the FA. Short term models continue to indicate outflow may push into N OK by mid-late evening, mainly along and north of I-44. A couple storms may develop in our area as this occurs, but PoPs generally remain confined to locations near the OK-KS border in Osage/Washington counties. Additionally, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon and early evening over the terrain of NW AR. However, all things considered, the vast majority of the area should remain dry with abnormally hot temperatures persisting. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of E OK and W-Central AR for heat index values up to 107. Another mild night is likely with low temperatures in the 70s areawide.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Our area will remain on the western edge of an upper level ridge, centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley region, on Wednesday. The front is likely to lift back north during the day with southerly flow across the S Plains. High temperatures will remain nearly steady with another day of advisory-level heat indices expected for much of the area. Additionally, higher PWATs will migrate into E OK and W AR, resulting in a slightly higher coverage of afternoon showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. Still, rainfall will be spotty at best with dry conditions remaining the rule.

The ridge drifts westward during late week, becoming centered nearly overhead Thursday into Friday. This will result in continued warm and predominantly dry conditions for the area. Another cold front will be pushed south toward the forecast area this weekend as a stronger upper trough moves through the Central/Northern Plains. With upper level support closer, this front is currently projected to push into our area, if not clear it, early next week. Higher rain and thunder chances develop during this time (Sat-Mon), but will be dependent on the position of the front. Temperatures should cool off quite a bit going into early next week, with many locations potentially falling back to near or slightly below average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty south to southwest winds at all sites except FSM will continue through the afternoon, with gusts dropping off early in the evening. Any shower or storm chances of note will remain north of the terminals this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 100 79 100 78 / 0 0 10 0 FSM 102 77 102 76 / 10 10 20 10 MLC 102 78 102 76 / 0 0 10 10 BVO 99 72 100 72 / 0 10 10 0 FYV 99 74 99 72 / 10 10 20 0 BYV 97 75 97 74 / 10 10 20 0 MKO 102 76 100 74 / 10 0 20 10 MIO 97 74 98 74 / 0 10 10 10 F10 101 76 100 74 / 0 0 10 10 HHW 100 76 99 75 / 0 0 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>071- 073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053- 055>058-060>063-066>068-070-071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ129-219-220- 229.