textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Near record to record warmth is expected through Tuesday.

- Fire weather concerns increase again Monday.

- Confidence is increasing that a widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall event will occur Tuesday night through Thursday mainly from northeast Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible.

- Much cooler and drier weather is expected by Friday into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Another unseasonably warm day is on tap Monday, with conditions very similar to those observed Sunday. Afternoon high temperatures will once again climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with gusty south winds. The warm temperatures and gusty winds will raise fire weather concerns again, especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Low level moisture will increase Monday night and Tuesday resulting in overnight low temperatures more commonly seen in July than October. Record warm low temperatures will likely be set Tuesday and Wednesday in many locations, with additional cloud cover Tuesday possibly keeping afternoon highs just below record levels, although it will be close.

A frontal boundary sagging south to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border combined with an upper trough over the western U.S. ejecting out into the central plains will result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night through Thursday, especially from northeast Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas. Locally heavy rainfall will likely occur, and a few strong to severe storms will also be possible. A stronger cold front will surge south across the area Thursday or Thursday night, with the precipitation tapering off and ending in its wake.

Much cooler and drier weather will prevail behind the front Friday through next weekend, with below normal temperatures expected for the first time in a couple months.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. LLWS will persist at most sites through mid morning, with sfc wind gusts out of the south 20-25 knots common from mid-morning until sunset. Some data suggests potential for lower ceilings to spread across southeast OK and possibly to part of NW AR very later in the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 91 74 91 74 / 0 0 10 50 FSM 93 72 93 75 / 0 0 10 20 MLC 91 73 90 75 / 0 0 10 10 BVO 91 71 91 71 / 0 0 10 60 FYV 91 69 89 73 / 0 0 10 30 BYV 90 72 89 74 / 0 0 10 30 MKO 91 71 91 73 / 0 0 10 30 MIO 89 71 89 71 / 0 0 10 50 F10 90 72 90 73 / 0 0 10 30 HHW 90 73 89 74 / 0 0 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.