textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon with a brief window for a few severe storms.

- Below normal temperatures through mid-week.

- Warmer trend late week with a return of shower and thunderstorm chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Sharp contrast noted across the cold front making steady progress through NE OK and far NW AR. An increasingly unstable and weakly capped airmass is expected by mid to late afternoon from SE OK into NW AR ahead. Guidance continues to suggest isolated to scattered storm coverage from mid to late afternoon ahead of the cold front and likely initially forced in the corridor east of the sfc low located over east central OK by mid afternoon. Storm motions will be fast which will limit residence time across the forecast area, however sufficient instability and shear profiles will be present to support severe weather potential with any sustained updrafts. A higher coverage will eventually develop along the advancing front but this is more likely further east and south of the local forecast area. Cool and breezy conditions will follow the front with pockets of drizzle likely continuing through the evening in the post frontal airmass.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Deep troughing through the central CONUS will allow a seasonably cool airmass to overspread the region Wednesday through Thursday. Elevated convection may brush far SE OK and west central AR Wednesday but any precip amounts remain light. Wednesday night low temps are forecast from the upper 30s to low 40s north of Interstate 40.

Warming trend begins Friday with increasing southerly winds and moisture return underway. This will be in advance of the next cold front forecast to move into the region next weekend which will also be the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Cold front continues to slowly push southward across eastern OK into northwest AR and will continue to do so the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. North of the front expect widespread MVFR and local IFR ceilings with gusty N-NE winds and some patchy light rain. There may be a window for improved ceilings part of the evening, but MVFR will prevail for the most part. Ahead of the front there are areas of lower ceilings, but they should at least temporarily improve this afternoon before S-SW winds shift to the north with the frontal passage and lower ceilings return. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front after 21z, with low potential for impacting FYV/FSM as the main development is likely to occur just east of those sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 49 63 43 69 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 54 67 48 72 / 20 20 10 0 MLC 51 67 46 70 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 45 61 39 69 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 48 63 42 68 / 30 20 0 0 BYV 47 59 43 67 / 40 20 0 0 MKO 50 64 44 68 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 46 60 41 66 / 20 10 0 0 F10 49 64 44 71 / 10 10 0 0 HHW 57 70 51 71 / 20 20 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.