textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, are likely tonight into Sunday morning. Areas of heavy rain and flash/river flooding are likely.

- Heat Advisory for parts of northeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas this afternoon.

- Overall cooler and drier weather is expected through mid next week before warmer and wetter weather returns.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Earlier storm activity left a wake of cooler and stable air across the area, but a surge of warm and humid air is quickly moving north and scouring out the cooler air. In the immediate short term that will result in hot and humid conditions developing, with a Heat Advisory in effect for a portion of eastern Oklahoma this afternoon.

One potentially interesting forecast wrinkle this afternoon will be a subtle mid level circulation approaching from the west, evident on visible satellite imagery. CAMs have off and on suggested a few storms may pop near and north of I-40 this afternoon in response to this feature, but confidence is low. With that said, if storms did form, they could become severe given huge instability that is expected to be in place. Hail would be the dominant threat. Otherwise, warm advection showers near the OK-KS border also remain possible into the afternoon.

By late evening and into the overnight hours a strong cold front will move in from the northwest. Upper level support will be weak with the trough well removed to the north, but there will be enough upper level flow and diffluence for storms to develop. Very large instability will help strong storms to develop near the front, but line parallel shear will promote quick upscale growth. Accordingly, a line of storms will form and then move through the area. Severe weather will be a concern, with strong winds being the main threat, with a spin up tornado or large hail being secondary concerns. Very heavy rain is expected with elevated atmospheric water content across the area. A widespread 1-3 inches is expected with locally higher amounts. Such heavy totals, along with recent rains, will promote a flood risk along area rivers and in any location that sees the higher rain rates. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the areas most likely to be impacted. Thunderstorms will switch to just showers north of I-40 Sunday morning, with thunderstorms continuing south of the interstate.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue through Sunday, focusing south of I-40. A relatively cool northerly breeze will keep temperatures down Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s. Dew points will also briefly drop as conditions dry out. A few spots may even reach the upper 50s Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Temperatures will rebound mid week with a temporary resurgence of upper level ridging, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. By this point, a strong trough in the Great Lakes lakes region will help to strengthen the flow aloft. At the same time, an ejecting trough out of the southwest will increase low level moisture and instability. The result will be a resurgence of rain and thunder chances, continuing into the weekend. Temperatures will cool slightly to near normal during this stretch.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Ongoing convection will continue to spread eastward across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into mid evening. Within the convection, gusty to strong winds, heavy rains and also brief MVFR conditions are possible. Additional convection and showers along a cold front are expected to move southward into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas mid evening, and then spread southward into Sunday morning. Again, gusty to strong winds, heavy rains and MVFR conditions are capable within the main convective line. Behind the main area of convection, a period of lingering showers are forecast with MVFR conditions becoming more likely into Sunday morning. Conditions look to lift back to VFR mid/late morning for northeast Oklahoma and during early/mid afternoon for southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Winds through the period start out southerly, become variable with the storms and then transition out of the west and then northerly during the day Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 69 76 61 79 / 90 20 0 0 FSM 73 83 66 81 / 90 50 20 10 MLC 72 80 65 79 / 90 60 20 10 BVO 66 76 57 79 / 100 10 10 0 FYV 69 78 58 79 / 90 40 0 0 BYV 67 76 57 78 / 90 30 0 0 MKO 70 77 61 78 / 90 40 10 0 MIO 66 76 57 79 / 100 10 0 0 F10 69 77 61 78 / 90 40 20 0 HHW 74 83 68 79 / 60 70 50 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ055>058-061>063- 067>069.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055-056-059>061- 064-067-154-254-354.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.