textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1102 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 - Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into early next week with limited fire weather danger each afternoon.

- Pattern becomes more active next week with rain chances Tuesday and again late in the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1102 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

While cooler than yesterday, a return to southerly winds this afternoon and lots of sunshine will allow highs to climb well above average for this time of year into the 60s most places.

A persistent south wind is forecast tonight, which should work to counteract radiational cooling and hold overnight lows up well above what values were this morning.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1102 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

An upper wave is expected to slide across the region on Sunday. Hints of some light precip have shown up in the models for a few days. Model soundings show decent lift in the 500-600mb layer, with cloud bases generally 10kft or higher. The layer below cloud base in the soundings is pretty dry. If precip is heavy enough, some sprinkles could make it to the ground, but likely only in spots. Inserted isolated sprinkle mention into the grids. Also reduced model blend (NBM) high temps for Sunday a tad given cloud cover concerns. Skies clear by Sunday evening and winds go light and variable. For the forecast lows Monday morning, leaned toward CONSMOS and the lower quartile (25th%ile) of the guidance spread. Some guidance is hinting at some patchy fog, but will not insert at this time given low confidence.

Shortwave ridging will slide over the region aloft on Monday, ahead of an approaching upper system over the Southwest. Depending on how thick the high cloud is lifting northeast into the area during the day, southerly flow and expanding LLTR over central/south-central CONUS will set the stage for a well above average warm day and possibly the warmest day of this forecast for Monday.

The upper low off the coast of the Baja will eventually move into the Plains by Tuesday. At the same time, a frontal boundary will be dropping south into the region from a passing northern stream wave. The combination of increasing lift and moisture ahead of the southern stream wave and the slow-moving frontal boundary will increase rain chances across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some low thunder probs were also inserted across SE OK into NW AR. Rain chances taper off Wednesday but will return by the end of the week as the next wave approaches from the Southwest and interacts with the front that is still lingering over the region. An even stronger system coming in from the Pacific could impact the region during the early to middle part of the following week. The signal for a more active weather pattern over the next couple weeks is there.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Scattered high clouds are anticipated into tonight while surface high pressure exits ahead of a shortwave moving into the region Sunday. Broken to overcast cloud cover in the 10-15kft range are forecast Sunday morning. Winds through the period become southerly from west to east this afternoon and remain southerly before a wind shift associated with the shortwave during the morning hours Sunday. The exception to this will be KFSM where winds start out easterly and return to easterly this evening into Sunday. Winds aloft increase ahead of the shortwave and will carry low level wind shear tonight for the CWA. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 45 69 38 76 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 38 68 39 76 / 0 10 0 0 MLC 45 72 42 78 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 38 69 31 75 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 38 66 33 75 / 0 10 0 0 BYV 38 65 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 43 69 38 75 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 41 66 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 F10 45 71 39 77 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 42 72 44 76 / 0 10 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.