textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1150 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Grassland fire weather concerns this afternoon w/ near record high temps.

- Shower and thunderstorms ongoing with continued isolated to scattered coverage through Saturday night.

- Higher rain chances Sunday especially north. Cold front across the area with wide range in temperatures.

- An unsettled weather pattern over the next week with multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Corridor of high based showers and and isolated storms ongoing across E OK will continue eastward through the afternoon with rainfall amounts remaining light but isolated lighting hazard risk for outdoor activities. Cold front moves through NE OK into far NW AR late overnight with a continued axis of elevated convection possible from SE OK through NW AR though overall coverage is likely to remain low.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

The cold front evolution Sunday through Monday will have a large impact on local conditions with expanding cloud cover and rain chances along and north of the front with continued unseasonably warm temperatures south of the boundary. An expanding area of convection appears likely by mid morning Sunday north of the front across S KS with and ESE motion keeping higher rain chances across far NE OK into NW AR from afternoon through evening. This scenario will reinforce the frontal zone and further sharpen the temperature gradient across the region.

The frontal zone will attempt to lift northward Sunday night into Monday and likely become more aligned SW to NE with widely varying temps expected again across the forecast area. Precip chances will gradually wane as weak ridging aloft develops downstream of the evolving southwestern CONUS troughing.

Unseasonably warm temperatures return area wide Tuesday as the warm sector spreads northward. Shortwave trough is currently timed to eject across the central CONUS Tuesday night into Wednesday with an increase in shower and storm chances with the associated frontal passage. The degree of moisture return will be the focus for any uptick in severe weather potential as wind fields will be strong with the wave passage. The unsettled pattern continues into late week with more pronounced troughing across the western CONUS and multiple periods of showers and storms likely across the Plains late week into next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast through the TAF period across the CWA. Scattered light rain chances with isolated thunder potential also exists mainly for southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through this evening. This evening and overnight a cold front is progged to drop into the CWA with additional light rain chances continuing tonight into Sunday morning. The greater potential for precip is toward the latter part of the TAF period over the CWA, and will add Prob30 groups for timing. Winds this afternoon remains south to southwest and become north to northeast behind the frontal passage. VFR conditions are forecast for the period, though there is a low potential of lower ceilings developing near the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 48 64 44 65 / 20 50 60 40 FSM 53 71 44 72 / 20 40 50 30 MLC 56 76 55 77 / 30 40 40 20 BVO 39 56 36 60 / 10 50 70 30 FYV 46 67 44 66 / 20 60 70 40 BYV 46 58 41 64 / 20 60 70 40 MKO 52 69 47 69 / 20 50 50 30 MIO 43 56 41 63 / 20 70 80 40 F10 53 72 50 70 / 20 40 50 30 HHW 56 78 54 77 / 20 20 20 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.