textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026 - Record or near record warmth expected Monday with limited fire weather concerns.

- Pattern becomes more active this week with rain chances mainly in the east and south Tuesday and again late in the week over the entire area.

- A cold front will bring cooler weather starting Tuesday in the north and areawide by Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Some very light measurable rainfall (no more than a couple hundredths) was reported in the Tulsa area and points west and east from there in association with a passing wave aloft. Clouds will be on the decrease this afternoon and into the evening in the wake of this feature. Light winds and clearing skies suggest this should be a good night for radiational cooling. Continued to favor the colder side of the guidance envelope, leaning toward CONSMOS and the lower quartile of the model blend (NBM) probabilistic spread for overnight lows. There are hints in the HRRR, HREF and EC of some fog developing mainly to the east of highway 75 and also down near the Red River around daybreak Monday morning. Inserted mention of patchy fog into the grids.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Shortwave ridging aloft slides overhead on Monday ahead of an approaching storm system from the Southwest. High clouds will be on the increase from the south, but may be too late and not thick enough to hold temps back much. Southerly winds and an expanding LLTR will lead to forecast highs that are on the order of 15 to 20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. As a result, record or near record warmth is forecast Monday.

Some weather changes arrive by Tuesday. A cold front will be pushing into the region from the north in association with a passing wave in the northern stream. The tail end of the latest synoptic run of the HRRR and the NAM12 both show strong gusty north winds behind this front late Monday night into Tuesday. The southward progress of the front may tend to slow during the day, such that a sharp north-south gradient in highs is likely by Tuesday afternoon across the forecast area. Used the cooler CONSRaw from roughly I-44 northward and the NBM south of the front. Meanwhile, moisture and lift will be increasing in advance of an ejecting southern stream wave from the Southwest. Shower chances increase by the afternoon and especially into the evening mainly on the warm side of the southward-moving front from SE OK into W AR. Instability looks meager and have thus removed thunder probs.

Rain chances end by early Wednesday and cooler temps are forecast areawide behind the aforementioned front. This front either washes out or retreats back north Thursday, and forecast highs rebound back to well above average levels.

The next storm system approaches from the Southwest by late in the week and will interact with another front dropping down into the region to yield likely rain chances across the forecast area.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFs) Issued at 1140 AM Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with BKN to OVC mid and high cloud through mid-late afternoon. A few sprinkles remain possible over the next couple of hours, especially at the AR terminals, but no impact to terminals is expected. Skies will be clearing form north to south as the afternoon progresses, becoming clear by this evening. Winds generally remain light out of the south or southwest before becoming light and variable to calm after sunset this evening.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 72 38 79 54 / 30 0 0 0 FSM 69 40 79 52 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 73 41 82 57 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 72 32 79 45 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 67 33 77 52 / 30 0 0 0 BYV 66 39 76 53 / 30 0 0 0 MKO 70 38 78 55 / 30 0 0 0 MIO 68 36 74 51 / 10 0 0 0 F10 73 41 80 57 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 72 43 77 57 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.