textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 - Potentially more widespread severe weather threat with all modes possible may develop this afternoon and continue into early Saturday morning.

- Continued heavy rainfall potential through Saturday morning with a localized flash flooding threat.

- Dry for Sunday, but additional storm chances return early to middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

An active severe weather day is still anticipated over the local area from this afternoon through tonight, though details regarding the corridor of highest threat remain unclear. At this time, the potential for higher-end severe weather exists, with areas east of Highway 75 generally favored, but this threat remains highly conditional. BLUF...residents of eastern Oklahoma and west central and northwest AR need to remain alert to severe weather potential and keep up with the forecast as details start to emerge over the next several hours.

At present, a band of elevated thunderstorms continues along and west of Highway 75 in northeast OK in a zone of low level warm advection. Latest CAMs continue to weaken this and lift it north into early this afternoon, which makes sense, but they have struggled with the initialization. For the moment these remain sub-severe, though MUCPAE of around 1000 does support a hail threat. One signal that has emerged in the data is for additional discrete cells to develop this afternoon within an axis of stronger sfc-based instability that spreads north into SE OK and eventually points north later this afternoon. Early signs of this could be in developing convection currently across central TX, which would lift northeast into this increasingly unstable air. Should these sustain, this might be the best opportunity for more significant severe weather, especially as low level jet strengthens this evening. But again, uncertainty remains quite high.

By late this evening and overnight, a cold front will begin to push southeast across the local area, with additional convection forced along this boundary. Still not clear how much the environment will be impacted by storms today, but frontal storms should at least pose a limited wind threat overnight, while becoming more focused over southeast OK and into WC AR with time. Front may tend to undercut storms which could be a limiting factor as well.

Finally, worth noting that PWAT values well above climatology reside over the region, and will support high rainfall rates in more sustained convection. OVerall rainfall amounts could end up highly variable, but at least localized 3-4" amounts are feasible and would result in some flash flooding through tonight, especially from SE OK through NW AR.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday near the frontal zone and continue through much of the morning at least. Lingering potential for severe weather continues, though most storms are expected to be elevated, outside potentially areas near the Red RIver early. Once this finally clears the area, quiet conditions prevail Saturday night and Sunday, with a light freeze possible Sunday morning across some of NE OK and NW AR.

Cutoff portion of upper low is forecast to eject into the southern plains early next week with rain and thunderstorm chances returning. Some additional flooding and severe potential will likely exist into mid-week. Pattern is then expected to transition back to a more settled WNW flow aloft late next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue near and west of KTUL, KRVS, and KBVO through 20Z. Ceilings of 2.5- 4kft will persist for eastern OK. Storm coverage will increase into the afternoon and evening from southwest to northeast. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail and damaging wind. Storms will also produce locally heavy rainfall with lowered visibility. Ceilings will decrease to 1.5-3 kft for much of the area for the late afternoon and evening as well. Multiple rounds of storms are possible until after midnight.

A cold front will then move through after midnight with precipitation winding down behind the front. Breezy south winds will shift to northwest. Ceilings will break up and rise into the mid morning period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 75 46 61 38 / 70 60 10 0 FSM 79 58 70 43 / 60 90 60 10 MLC 77 50 66 41 / 80 80 30 10 BVO 75 41 60 33 / 60 60 0 0 FYV 78 50 67 37 / 50 80 50 10 BYV 76 55 65 38 / 50 90 50 10 MKO 77 48 62 37 / 80 80 20 10 MIO 75 45 58 36 / 60 80 0 0 F10 76 46 60 37 / 80 70 10 10 HHW 78 57 68 46 / 70 90 70 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.