textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 - Record or near record warmth expected today with limited fire weather concerns through this afternoon.

- Pattern becomes more active this week with rain chances mostly across the east and south Tuesday and again late in the week over the entire forecast area.

- A cold front will bring cooler weather starting Tuesday in the north and areawide by Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

As of 11 AM, temperatures were already climbing into the 70s for a few spots across eastern OK and northwest AR. Anticipate temperatures to keep climbing to or near record high values later this afternoon. Here are the records for the three climate sites for today: (Tulsa: 82/1932), (Fayetteville: 75/1957), (Fort Smith: 81/1957).

Quiet and unseasonably mild weather will persevere tonight. A mid/upper-level low over Baja California will move onshore late tonight and open up as a wave as it lifts across northwest Mexico. As it moves onshore, high clouds will begin to stream into the area before sunrise Tuesday. At the surface, winds will remain sustained out of the south around 5 to 10 mph this evening and through the night. Winds should be strong enough to mitigate fog formation, but localized areas may see brief and light fog, especially in areas with lighter winds, around sunrise. The south winds will maintain the warm temperatures, with overnight lows ranging from the low-mid 50s north of I-40 to mid-upper 50s south.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A little bit of an unsettled weather pattern will commence Tuesday, beginning with a cold front arriving mid-late morning. The front will bring in cooler and drier air, as well as trailing gusty north winds. Wind gusts 30-35 mph will be possible into the afternoon, especially for locations north of I-44. Hi-res models continue to indicate a fairly tight temperature gradient on either side of the frontal boundary as it moves through the area, with temperatures warming up into the low-mid 70s ahead of the front and upper 40s and lower 50s just behind it. The front is expected to exit the forecast area Tuesday evening. Despite the cooler temperatures following the cold front, temperatures will remain unseasonably warm Tuesday night into Wednesday. A few light rain showers, associated with the approaching mid/upper-level wave mentioned in the short-term, are forecast to develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with greatest rain chances (30-50%) along and south of I-40. Rainfall amounts are expected to be around a tenth of an inch or less, locally up to a quarter of an inch.

Precipitation chances will exit south and east overnight Tuesday night. Tranquil and cooler conditions are expected through the daytime Wednesday as mid-level ridging moves overhead. Daytime highs on Wednesday will reach the low-mid 60s. Southerly winds return by Wednesday night and into Thursday and afternoon temperatures will rise back into the upper 60s and lower 70s. By Thursday evening, a robust mid/upper-level trough will dig south along the West Coast, before lifting northeastward on Friday morning/afternoon. Another surface cold front is forecast to push through the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Medium-range models hint at few showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms develop along the frontal boundary. Amounts from rain along the front are expected to be light. The upper-level trough will lift northeast during the daytime Friday, moving across OK on Saturday. Moisture and instability will increase ahead of the approaching trough and widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop late Friday night into Saturday morning. A low-end severe thunderstorm threat, as well as a heavy rainfall threat, will exist with this storm system. Rainfall amounts and the overall severe threat will depend on the trough timing, position, and orientation as it approaches from the west. Details will be fine-tuned over the next few days. The storm system will exit the area Sunday morning and benign weather will return for the start of next week.

Mejia

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. An increase in high cloud is expected tonight with LLWS conditions developing at all sites aft 06Z with strengthening SWrly LLJ. There is an outside chance of patchy fog in the lower Ark River Valley at KFSM, but confidence is not high enough to warrant mention at this time. Srly sfc winds should remain blo 12kts sustained today with the exception of KBVO, where an occasional gust abv 15kts is possible. A cold front will bring a wind shift at the NE OK sites Tuesday morning to a Nrly direction, with gusty winds aoa 20kts possible at KBVO through 18Z.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 53 62 38 61 / 0 0 10 0 FSM 53 76 47 62 / 0 20 30 10 MLC 58 74 43 64 / 0 20 40 10 BVO 45 59 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 54 71 40 61 / 0 10 20 10 BYV 55 70 40 59 / 0 10 20 10 MKO 55 73 43 62 / 0 10 20 0 MIO 52 60 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 F10 57 70 42 63 / 0 10 20 0 HHW 58 75 51 67 / 0 20 50 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.