textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1157 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Much colder tonight, with light freeze potential along the Kansas border and far northwest Arkansas.

- Warming trend this weekend with unseasonably warm temperatures and gusty south winds expected Sunday into early next week. This will raise fire weather concerns once again.

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A strong cold front has pushed through all of the forecast area this morning, with frequent northerly wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range and isolated gusts above 40 mph continuing mainly across northeast Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas. A slow trend downward in wind speed is expected mid to late afternoon and into the overnight. Extensive low cloud deck is beginning to lessen some along the Kansas border, with the clearing line expected to slowly push southward this afternoon and into the evening. There remains potential for a narrow window for heightened fire weather conditions this afternoon mainly northwest of I-44 across areas that have recently been more susceptible to dangerous fire behavior, as some clearing occurs. The existing Fire Danger Statement is handling this threat well.

Showers also continue to exist along and north of the front. This potential will slowly sag southward through the afternoon, with CAM output consistent in lingering low potential into the overnight roughly along and south of I-40. POPs through 09Z reflect a heavy influence of the short-term blended guidance.

Surface high pressure trailing the cold front will move into the region overnight, with light winds and clearing skies supporting potential for a light freeze. Greatest chance will be along and the Kansas border, with lower but still mentionable potential in far northwest Arkansas. Consideration was given to a Freeze Warning in the northern row of counties in northeast Oklahoma tonight, given we are into the spring period for issuing frost/freeze headlines, but with forecast temperatures right at the freezing mark across a small portion of the area, will not do so at this time.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Surface high pressure will push south and eastward during the day Saturday, with southerly winds returning by the afternoon to portions of the area. Warmer afternoon temperatures, mainly in the mid 60s, continued low dew points and the increased wind speeds will support a near elevated threat for rapid fire spread Saturday afternoon, mainly across Osage and Pawnee counties. The fire weather threat will increase further Sunday, continuing into early next week, as increasingly gusty southerly winds and a return to well above normal temperatures occurs. Increasing moisture in response to the strong southerly winds will lead to minimum afternoon relative humidities notably above traditionally critical levels from Sunday on. The overall fire danger during this period will be reliant on fuel states.

Some fire weather relief may be on the horizon beginning the middle of next week, with a more zonal pattern early to mid week transitioning so southwest flow aloft toward the end of the week supporting multiple opportunities for meaningful rainfall. Temperatures should be more seasonable as well.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A cold front will bring a wind shift to north to northeast with gusty winds. A period of MVFR cigs will occur behind the front for a few hours, along with some spotty showers. Cigs should climb back into VFR range this afternoon and clouds should clear out tonight as winds subside.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 58 36 65 49 / 40 0 0 0 FSM 67 39 66 45 / 50 20 0 0 MLC 63 41 67 49 / 30 20 0 0 BVO 60 32 66 45 / 30 0 0 0 FYV 58 33 64 44 / 80 10 0 0 BYV 55 34 63 43 / 70 10 0 0 MKO 60 37 65 47 / 50 10 0 0 MIO 55 33 63 46 / 50 0 0 0 F10 58 39 67 47 / 40 10 0 0 HHW 70 46 64 47 / 20 20 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>057-059>062- 064>067.

AR...None.