textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- An extended period of hot and dry weather is expected to persist into the first part of September.

- Ongoing drought situation will worsen. Hot and windy conditions over the weekend and into next week will yield localized fire weather concerns each day.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A severe MCS over far SW NE is about ready to nose down into NW KS late this evening. Recent radar trends with the MCS suggest more of a southward motion with the system, as is shown in the 00Z HRRR/RRFS. If the system overachieves it could move into NW OK by tomorrow morning. There is some suggestion in the CAMs for some increasing mid-cloud and maybe a few showers getting close to the northwest part of the forecast area tomorrow morning on the eastern fringe of the system. Will not plan on inserting mentionable PoPs at this point, and will instead put silent 10s to the north and west of Tulsa and pass concerns on to the next shift.

Upper heights will begin to rise over the Plains Friday as the southwest CONUS ridge starts its journey toward the central US. We'll have another day of lighter east winds with a weak surface ridge nearby. For daytime highs Friday I leaned more toward the warmer CONSShort as highs overachieved above the model blend (NBM) today. Dewpoints are in the 50s at several locations this evening, supporting the model forecast of mixing the dewpoints down into the 50s tomorrow afternoon. Forecast heat indices will stay below triple digits, so no headlines needed.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Dewpoints are expected to be a bit higher on Saturday as winds turn around to the south, but not high enough to raise forecast heat indices to advisory levels. Deterministic and ensemble data continues to support the ridge center aloft shifting overhead this weekend, then over to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys early next week and then back overhead late next week into next weekend. At the surface, a trough will be situated to our north and west and the gradient will tighten over the region, bringing breezy conditions late in the weekend and into next week. The ridge aloft will maintain above average heat and dry weather over the region at least through next week. Heat headlines may be needed as soon as Sunday and for several days next week for portions of the area. The 18Z GFS total QPF forecast was basically zero over the forecast area through the first week of September. Drought conditions over the region will worsen. The hot, dry and windy conditions will increase fire weather concerns at least locally each day.

The week 2 forecast from the CPC suggests continued support for above average temps and below average precip until further notice.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period with passing high clouds and diurnal cu, mainly across AR sites. There is low potential for some fog development again this morning across AR sites, though probabilities are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Winds will remain less than 10 kts through the day, generally out of the east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 96 70 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 96 68 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 97 70 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 95 66 100 72 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 92 65 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 89 64 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 96 68 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 93 68 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 F10 97 68 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 99 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.