textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Severe weather chances winding down overnight.

- Strong winds develop late tonight through Thursday morning, especially across northeast Oklahoma.

- Additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday evening with increasing heavy rainfall potential.

- Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Broken line of storms extending from near BVO to OKC metro and back into northwest TX continues to slowly progress eastward, with lingering potential for sporadic strong wind gusts with some embedded bowing segments as low level shear has strengthened over the past few hours. However the thermodynamic environment ahead of the storms trending less favorable with time and eastward extent. Thus the severe threat will continue diminishing through the night. Localized heavy rainfall of 2-4" estimated across parts of Osage and Pawnee counties and some additional threat of localized heavy rain exists, but flooding potential remains low due to antecedent dry conditions.

Upper level shortwave will continue to move east across the Central Plains overnight through Thursday with persistent strong low level jet, and sfc low tracking eastward across Kansas. This will spur an increase in south-southwest winds later tonight into Thursday with gusts 30-35 mph likely. A few advisory level gusts will be possible across northeast OK and higher terrain areas to the east as well. Low level airmass doesn't change much Thursday afternoon save for some mixing of dry air in parts of northeast OK. Given this the RH should remain high enough to largely offset any fire weather concerns. The upper trough axis remains in close enough proximity to keep a low potential for a few shower or thunderstorms Thursday, but most areas will likely remain dry.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Low level moisture will surge north again Thursday night into Friday as an upper low moves across the Central/Northern Rockies and low level southerly flow re-strengthens. Warm advection regime will keep the potential for a few showers or thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. More robust and widespread development expected by Friday afternoon along a cold front that will enter northeast OK and surge southeast during the evening and overnight hours. Severe weather potential will increase during this period, with wind gusts likely becoming the main hazard given the linearly forced nature of the convection. This period will also likely feature an increase in heavy rainfall potential.

A cooler and drier airmass will push south behind the front Saturday with ridging over the western CONUS eventually expanding over the Southern Plains early next week. The result will be quiet weather for much of next week with temperatures starting out a bit below average for the weekend, then trending gradually upward through the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Ongoing line of convection across E OK will continue steadily eastward overnight with associated flight impacts within the region of heaviest rains. Expect showers and storms to be ending across NW AR terminals around sunrise. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is possible Thursday morning otherwise strong and gusty winds and VFR conditions will prevail for much of the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 84 68 80 53 / 10 10 60 90 FSM 85 66 84 58 / 70 40 60 90 MLC 84 68 81 55 / 40 20 50 100 BVO 82 63 79 48 / 10 0 70 80 FYV 81 64 80 53 / 80 40 60 100 BYV 80 65 80 53 / 80 40 60 100 MKO 83 66 80 52 / 40 20 50 100 MIO 81 65 78 48 / 40 20 50 90 F10 85 66 80 52 / 20 10 50 100 HHW 82 65 80 56 / 70 20 50 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.