textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Hot and humid weather will continue through Thursday.

- Thunderstorms are expected across the region Thursday afternoon and night. Strong downburst winds and hail will accompany the strongest storms. A quick 2 inches of rain will occur at few locations, with most locations receiving measurable rain.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist into the weekend. Saturday night into Sunday is expected to have the greatest storm coverage. Excessive rainfall will occur in areas experiencing multiple storms, with some seeing several inches of rain. Flash flooding potential will exist with the storms. The rain potential will aggravate the flood risk near area creeks and rivers.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A few small showers may occur late today and early this evening in the deeper moisture over the terrain of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

A few thunderstorm are possible late today and into this evening from Kansas into northwest Oklahoma near a zone of weak low-level surface convergence during and just after peak heating. Odds lean away from this activity getting into northeast Oklahoma. There is a low chance a cell or two could reach far western Osage and far western Pawnee Counties before dissipating.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Thunderstorms are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon along a front moving southeast into the area. Widespread coverage is forecast, except for parts of far northeast Oklahoma where the front could get past before development. High precipitable water values, slow movement of the front, and expected coverage suggests the potential for some locations picking up a couple of inches of rain. Microbursts and some hail is expected with the stronger cells. The hail threat may be a bit more than normal for a hot June day if some of the data that depicts faster 200 mb winds are correct.

The Tulsa area may be near Heat Advisory criteria Thursday afternoon depending on the timing of the front associated cloud development. Peak heat index values in our data are near 105 F in the Tulsa area, and 95F to 100F in many areas.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will persist in southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas on Friday before diminishing later in the day.

Thunderstorm chances increase in northwest Arkansas and far northeast Oklahoma Friday night into Saturday. The most important round of storms and rainfall looks to be from Saturday night into Sunday when rain and storms are expected across the region. Local rainfall totals around 6 inches will be possible where storms impact the same areas several times. Flash flooding potential will exists with the storms. The widespread rainfall could aggravate flooding near creeks and rivers.

Where enough sunshine can occur on Saturday, heat concerns could develop for a few hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MVFR ceilings likely to redevelop again Thursday morning aft 09Z across KMLC and Arkansas TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through that time. South winds will continue into Thursday with gusts at times this afternoon and again after daybreak tomorrow near 30kt. Winds will taper off overnight but continue to gust 18-23kt at the majority of locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 79 93 67 85 / 10 50 80 10 FSM 79 93 74 88 / 10 0 90 40 MLC 80 93 73 88 / 10 0 90 60 BVO 79 94 63 84 / 20 60 50 10 FYV 77 90 69 86 / 20 0 100 20 BYV 75 90 66 84 / 20 0 100 10 MKO 78 91 69 85 / 10 10 90 30 MIO 77 91 63 84 / 10 70 70 10 F10 77 91 68 85 / 10 10 90 30 HHW 78 92 76 88 / 10 0 70 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.