textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- Low chance of showers and/or thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly in SE OK and W-Central AR.

- Daily rain and storm chances are expected areawide Tuesday through the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat, which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

An upper level low remains centered across Texas, resulting in easterly flow aloft, but otherwise is having only minor impacts on the area. Mostly clear skies will allow for decent daytime heating, with highs reaching the low to mid 80s by this afternoon. Light southerly flow near the surface will gradually increase low level moisture. These factors will result in a few widely scattered pop up showers or storms this afternoon, with the best chance in the higher terrain of southeast OK and northwest AR. Overnight lows will mostly be in the low 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A prolonged period of unsettled weather is expected beginning Tuesday, and continuing into the weekend. This will be driven by the upper level low across Texas lifting northwest and being absorbed by a deeper trough moving in from the west. As this occurs, a near surface low will slowly track from west to east (just south of the area) with persistent convergence in the 850-700 hPa layer. Modest diffluence aloft will also be present, but not enough to be too significant a factor. Considering these factors along with healthy moisture levels (PWAT of 95th percentile or higher), repeated rounds of rainfall are likely beginning Tuesday and continuing into late week. Heavy rain at times is expected. Given recent wet conditions, and the potential of several additional inches of rain, localized flood concerns may develop. Severe weather is not expected, however, there will be sufficient instability for thunderstorms through this stretch. Highs will mostly be in the mid 70s to low 80s with lows in the upper 60s. Thursday may end up as the cloudiest and wettest days, so its possible highs will need to be nudged down from the current levels with time.

The pattern will finally begin to shift over the weekend. A building ridge over the four corners region will prevent additional systems from moving in from the west. However, with weak troughing remaining overhead, temperatures will be slow to respond with at least the potential for isolated showers persisting until Sunday or Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Expansive cu field across the area early this afternoon, with some enhancement already noted in sern OK and nwrn AR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA still expected to develop this afternoon with moist and unstable air mass in place and very little CIN. Forcing/support is weak, and probability too low to mention in forecasts. What activity develops this afternoon will end early this evening. Clouds increase across the region late tonight, especially mid/high clouds. Could be some light fog develop before clouds get too thick nwrn AR. TSRA development expected by late in forecast period sern OK and nwrn AR supports PROB30 groups, with higher chances expected after this forecast period Tuesday afternoon/early evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 64 82 64 82 / 0 30 20 70 FSM 65 83 65 85 / 10 50 20 80 MLC 64 84 65 82 / 10 30 30 90 BVO 60 83 61 83 / 0 20 10 60 FYV 61 80 63 83 / 10 50 20 60 BYV 60 78 61 82 / 0 60 20 50 MKO 64 81 64 82 / 0 30 20 80 MIO 61 82 62 84 / 0 40 10 40 F10 63 82 63 81 / 0 30 20 90 HHW 65 82 66 80 / 10 30 40 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.