textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1147 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday through Sunday night into Monday as a slow moving cold front passes. A few strong to severe storms may occur Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Noticeably cooler temperatures arrive Monday and persist through the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing early Sunday morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma, mainly to the north of Interstate 44. This activity is likely to diminish by midday, with additional storm development expected Sunday afternoon in the vicinity of a cold front that will be moving through northeast Oklahoma at that time. A few strong to severe storms may occur Sunday afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the main severe weather threat with hail a secondary threat. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the upper 80s to upper 90s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Shower and storm coverage will likely increase somewhat during the evening and expand south and east as the front likewise pushes slowly south and east. The severe weather threat will likely diminish by late evening and overnight as instability wanes, but locally heavy rainfall may occur. Shower and storm chances linger through Monday from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas before the cold front finally clears the area. Much cooler weather will then prevail for much of the next week, with temperatures near the seasonal averages. Low shower and storm chances may return to parts of northeast Oklahoma late in the week as an upper level storm system passes to the north of the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds become common through this evening across the CWA in advance of a cold front moving into the region. Also scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move into eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and into northwest Arkansas this evening. Within the convection, gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and brief MVFR conditions could be possible. Will continue with VCSH and Prob30 groups for timing of greater potential. Behind the precip and frontal boundary, broken high clouds remain for much of the CWA, while trying to scatter out in northeast Oklahoma. If clouds can scatter, there is potential for MVFR ceilings to develop late in the period in northeast Oklahoma.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 92 68 83 64 / 50 60 10 0 FSM 99 73 92 70 / 0 30 30 0 MLC 99 70 90 67 / 20 60 30 0 BVO 89 64 83 59 / 40 60 10 0 FYV 95 66 86 62 / 10 40 40 0 BYV 94 69 87 64 / 10 50 50 0 MKO 96 66 87 63 / 30 70 20 0 MIO 89 65 82 60 / 40 60 20 0 F10 95 66 86 63 / 40 70 20 0 HHW 99 71 95 69 / 0 40 40 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.