textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorm potential to continue into early Saturday morning with increasing heavy rainfall potential.

- Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

- Unsettled pattern returns late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The severe weather potential has ramped up over the last hour or so with the intensification of the line segment along the cold front in far northeast Oklahoma and the arrival of a complex that developed earlier in the evening to the west in parts of western and central Oklahoma. The latter has a history of reported brief tornadoes, as well as severe winds, and is just now moving into parts of east central Oklahoma along I-40. Both effective shear and instability drop off east of Highway 75, with potential for the severity to decrease some once the storms move east of the highway. Rainfall rates in the existing storms have been greater than an inch an hour per mesonet observations, reinforcing the earlier thoughts that the heavy rain and flash flood threat would increase late this evening and into early Saturday morning. Okfuskee and Okmulgee counties have been added to the Flood Watch given these observations.

Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front from the north leading to most of the rainfall shifting south and east of the area by midday Saturday. A general decrease in cloudiness and below normal temperatures should be expected for the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A more settled pattern will prevail for the remainder of the weekend and into the early to middle part of next week. Surface high pressure will linger across the region from Saturday night into Monday, leading to a couple of chilly mornings on Sunday and Monday. Maximum relative humidities and lighter wind speeds both mornings may lead to some frost potential that may require an advisory on a future shift. The high moves away, leading to a return to southerly winds and warmer temperatures Monday into Tuesday. The warming trend will continue into Wednesday.

Toward the end of next week, the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly as an upper level low moves toward the southwestern United States. This will increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms once again, as moisture increases and a front approaches from the north and lingers across the Southern and Central Plains. The main upper level system looks to make a slow approach toward the area, leading to potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at the northeast Oklahoma sites. A line of thunderstorms will affect the southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites during the first few hours of the forecast period with MVFR/IFR conditions expected. MVFR ceilngs and light showers will continue into Saturday morning at those sites before the rain ends and conditions improve to VFR. North to northwest winds will gust near 20 knots at times during the day Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 64 42 68 44 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 67 43 70 43 / 90 0 0 0 MLC 66 45 69 43 / 80 0 0 0 BVO 64 37 68 39 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 64 39 66 40 / 80 0 0 0 BYV 61 40 63 38 / 80 0 0 0 MKO 64 40 67 40 / 60 0 0 0 MIO 61 37 64 38 / 20 0 0 0 F10 64 41 68 40 / 50 0 0 0 HHW 66 45 69 44 / 100 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-065-066- 068>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-010-019-029.