textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

- Lingering severe weather concerns across southeast Oklahoma will wind down this afternoon as a cold front exits the area.

- Much cooler weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week.

- Rain and thunder chances will continue daily for the next week, with the heaviest and most widespread rain Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A strong cold front has now pushed through most of the forecast area with cooler northerly winds behind it. It will move out of southeast OK over the next two hours. Temperatures have cooled into the 50s to 60s for all areas except south of the front, where temperatures remain in the 70s. Lingering rain showers across much of the area will continue into the evening as warm and moist air rides over the elevated frontal surface, but should diminish in coverage somewhat with time. The severe weather threat will persist near the front for the next hour or two, and then diminish as the front moves south. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to reinvigorate along the upper level front late this evening and overnight, which will be near the I-44 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the 50s across much of northeast OK and northwest AR, with low 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Model guidance suggests Wednesday will be mostly dry, though a few light showers cannot be ruled out, especially during the morning hours. There will be a fairly wide range of temperatures, with upper 60s to low 70s in the north, and mid 70s to near 80 F in the south. Went slightly below NBM as its been much too warm with the airmass observed behind this front. By Thursday, our next storm cycle will begin taking shape, as a trough dives into the area from the northwest, merging with an existing weak low pressure over the Desert Southwest. This will increase both low level warm/moist advection and upper level shear. Multiple shortwaves will pass through the area, kicking off repeated rounds of showers and storms Thursday onwards. As of now, Thursday appears to be the day with most widespread and heaviest rainfall potential. It will remain similarly cool to Wednesday.

Model timing uncertainty begins to grow into Friday, but as of now it appears the next most likely window for rain will be late Friday into Saturday morning, with another round Saturday into Sunday. Each of these rounds of precipitation will likely have embedded thunderstorms, but only a low chance for severe weather. If severe weather were to develop, Friday would be the most likely day. The main focus will likely be the heavy rain potential given weak but vertically deep cape and unusually high precipitable water values above 1.5 inches. Over time, depending on how much rain falls and where it falls, this could increase flash or river flood concerns. The pattern looks to remain unstable into the middle of next week with weak troughing keep precipitation chances above normal and temperatures mostly near normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Wide ranging mix of flight conditions ongoing across the local forecast area with the expected trend being MVFR to periodic IFR conditions overnight due to low ceilings and fog. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening primarily across E OK terminals with chances continuing and expanding through NW AR overnight. Overall expect low coverage of any heavier rains. Low ceilings likely continue through Wed morning with a slow improvement possible during the afternoon most likely from SE OK into west central AR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 56 70 60 73 / 70 20 60 90 FSM 65 80 64 76 / 60 30 30 60 MLC 60 77 63 75 / 40 30 40 90 BVO 51 67 56 71 / 70 10 50 90 FYV 59 74 60 75 / 70 30 20 70 BYV 59 70 58 73 / 70 30 20 50 MKO 58 75 62 73 / 70 20 50 80 MIO 55 67 56 72 / 70 20 40 80 F10 57 73 61 73 / 40 20 60 90 HHW 64 79 64 74 / 40 30 40 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.