textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Temperatures mostly above normal with continued periods of locally high heat stress to continue through Wednesday. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity.

- Periods of low to medium rain chances continue through Wednesday night.

- Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until widespread beneficial rainfall occurs.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A surface frontal boundary that was positioned northwest to southeast across southeast Oklahoma Monday is expected to become oriented more west to east over the region into Tuesday morning. At the same time, ongoing warm advection and an increasing low level jet set up across southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. In response, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to be forecast Monday night into early Tuesday morning mainly along and south of Interstate 40. By early Tuesday morning, PoPs are anticipated to be generally over far southeast Oklahoma before tapering off. Overall rainfall amounts should remain light for those that receive rain.

During the day Tuesday, the surface boundary is currently forecast to refocus itself along/just north of Interstate 40. North of this boundary, cloud cover looks to be more scattered/broken along with east/northeasterly winds, while south of the boundary south/southwesterly winds and a little less cloud cover are forecast. Thus, hot and humid conditions should persist along and south of the boundary with high temperatues of upper 90s to around 104 deg and heat index values up toward 110 deg. Thus, have expanded the Heat Advisory Tuesday afternoon to include more of east central Oklahoma. Depending on cloud cover and the precise location of the boundary, the Advisory may need to be expanded further. For now temperatures north of the boundary look to climb into the mid/upper 90s with heat index values of upper 90s to near 105 deg.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

With the CWA on the eastern periphery of the high pressure ridge, another shortwave is progged to slide southeast into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Latest model solutions differ slightly on timing and precip details with this wave. For this forecast, the main potential for showers and thunderstorms looks to develop Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, though there is low potentials for precip starting as early as Tuesday late afternoon. With some form of the boundary still holding across part of the CWA and instability setting up along and south of the boundary, a few storms Wednesday afternoon/evening could carry limited severe potential over far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Locally damaging winds are the primary threat with hail being a secondary threat. Majority of this precip should exit with the disturbance Wednesday night.

For those locations that remain dry Wednesday, continued hot and humid conditions are forecast with heat index values locally above 105 deg. Depending on how condition develop, another Heat Advisory may be necessary. Once the shortwave and the boundary depart the region, drier conditions and temperatures closer to seasonal average are anticipated Thursday and Friday. This break in the heat and heat stress however, look to be short-lived. Southerly low level flow spreads back over the region for the weekend into early next week with high temperatures climbing back into the upper 90s to around 103 deg over the CWA.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop overnight tonight, but the chances of any one site being affected are too low to include in the TAF's at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 97 75 96 73 / 0 20 20 10 FSM 103 76 99 74 / 10 20 20 30 MLC 105 76 99 73 / 0 10 20 20 BVO 95 71 93 67 / 10 20 20 0 FYV 96 72 95 68 / 0 20 20 20 BYV 93 72 92 69 / 0 20 20 20 MKO 101 74 96 71 / 0 10 20 20 MIO 94 72 93 68 / 0 20 20 10 F10 103 74 96 71 / 10 10 20 20 HHW 103 76 99 74 / 10 10 20 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-070-071-073>075-176-272-276.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.