textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight through Saturday primarily north of Interstate 40.

- Rain chances expand in coverage Saturday night through Sunday with overall rainfall amounts remaining light. Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Uncertainty increases for mid week storm system but overall pattern would favor increasing rain chances with potential for meaningful rainfall amounts over a larger area.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Rain chances through much of tonight remain in a similar corridor as has been observed through the day primarily favoring west of the Highway 75 corridor across NE OK. Increasing cloud cover and higher dewpoints spreading eastward will keep overnight lows mild.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Scattered showers and isolated storms are expected to be ongoing across NE OK Saturday morning with a slow expansion eastward through early afternoon. Most guidance favors a decrease in precip coverage through Saturday afternoon before showers and storms develop again Saturday evening and spread east and southeastward through the day Sunday. Higher precip chances will continue north of Interstate 40 through the day Saturday with a more broad rainfall footprint Saturday night into Sunday. Overall precip amounts are forecast to remain light with little to no impact to the ongoing drought conditions. The extent and duration of the thicker cloud cover will influence temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday, however expect temperatures remaining above seasonal normals through the weekend.

Upper ridge axis remains centered through the forecast area on Monday with very low rain chances and above normal temperatures continuing. The pattern transitions on Tuesday as a stronger mid level trough moves into the southwest CONUS and interacts with the remnants of tropical system Polo. Uncertainty increases substantially regarding the evolution of the resultant storm system with both timing and resultant weather impacts both in question. The general pattern of favorably, and possibly prolonged, synoptic scale lift interacting with a plume of deep mid level tropical moisture does favor high precip chances ahead of the advance mid level trough. Expect precip chances for mid to late next week to trend higher as confidence in timing and storm track increases. Heavy rain and possibly some severe weather potential may develop pending the overall storm system evolution.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Largely persistent VFR conditions will prevail through today and into tonight, with a steady stream of mostly high clouds and light southeasterly winds. A cluster of showers and potential thunderstorms could impact NE OK terminals Saturday morning with some reduction in visibility the main aviation impact along with lightning. Winds will also come around to be more southerly and increase to around 10 knots across E OK sites tomorrow morning.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 69 86 68 89 / 10 40 60 40 FSM 67 91 70 93 / 0 0 20 30 MLC 68 92 69 95 / 0 10 30 40 BVO 66 83 65 86 / 20 60 60 40 FYV 62 87 65 88 / 0 10 30 40 BYV 65 85 66 86 / 0 0 30 40 MKO 66 88 67 90 / 0 20 40 50 MIO 67 82 67 84 / 0 20 60 30 F10 66 89 66 92 / 10 20 50 50 HHW 67 92 67 95 / 0 0 10 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.