textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Record-breaking heat continues into Sunday.

- Fire weather conditions on Sunday will be the biggest concern, as winds strengthen ahead of and behind a cold front where humidities will be low and fuels abundant. - More near record heat mid to late next week, along with increased fire weather concerns.

- Low rain chances late next week with another front.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

The gradient will tighten tonight with the approach of a pre-frontal low/trough. The persistent south wind will lead to warm overnight lows in the 60s most places.

Deep layer thicknesses remain just as high on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front than they were today with the record heat. This suggests another day of record heat can be expected for most areas except NE OK closer to the KS border, where the front will bring some cooling before max potential can be realized.

Speaking of the cold front, it will start the day Sunday plunging south into northwest KS and headed in our direction. Ahead of the front, strong 850-925mb SWrly flow will develop, with the latest short-term models showing some mixing down of these stronger winds (gusts in the 30s) from mid-morning into the afternoon hours, with the stronger flow shifting east and south with time. The strong and gusty southwest winds combined with the heat ahead of the front and dropping humidity into the 20s percent range or lower will set the stage for critical fire weather spread potential. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM Sunday. The front will enter NE OK around 18Z, sweep across the I-44 corridor around 21Z, entering far NW AR and sweeping across I-40 in E OK by around 00Z. The front will slow down as it enters the terrain of NW AR and SE OK, but should clear the entire forecast area by late Sunday night or early Monday morning. An abrupt wind shift to the north with winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to 45 mph will be observed after frontal passage during the afternoon and possibly into the early evening. The 00Z HRRR has trended upward regarding gust potential behind the front and is supported by ensemble guidance. A Wind Advisory will be issued for a portion of NE OK for the afternoon hours to cover this gust potential. Humidity values will come up into the 30 to 40 percent range behind the front, but the abrupt wind shift and strong, gusty winds will still promote critical fire spread rates and could complicate any ongoing fire-fighting efforts into the early evening before winds back off a bit and humidities continue to rise.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Considerably cooler weather is expected Monday behind the front, though forecast temps are still technically above average for this time of year. With the cloud cover the majority of the guidance is cooler than the model blend (NBM), thus will be using bottom quartile (25th %ile) of probabilistic spread for forecast highs. The latest EC and ensemble data suggest some potential for light showers or sprinkles Monday night into Tuesday morning along the NW flow baroclinic zone. Cloud cover could affect high temps on Tuesday as well. After that, the ridge aloft over the Southwest that got suppressed this weekend will expand again next week with ever increasing influence over our region. Deep layer thicknesses rise steadily Wednesday and Thursday to values similar to this current stretch of record heat. A quick look at records for Wednesday and Thursday suggests near record or record heat can be expected yet again. Strong and gusty south to southwest winds Thursday ahead of the next front combined with the heat and lower humidity suggests another day of near critical fire spread potential.

Model consensus today brings the next front into our area Friday, with the GFS faster than the EC/UKMET. Depending on the timing of the front, more record heat is possible ahead of it. Moisture return into the southern Plains will be better by this time, and most models and the ensemble means have some precip breaking out behind the front by Friday night across NE OK/NW AR. Relief from the heat arrives by next weekend.

Lacy

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Gusty south to southwest winds this morning will shift to the north this afternoon and early evening while remaining gusty. Wind gusts of 25-30 knots are expected both ahead of and behind the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 93 45 68 51 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 94 53 74 49 / 0 10 0 10 MLC 94 52 73 52 / 0 10 0 10 BVO 89 40 66 45 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 94 45 69 46 / 0 10 0 10 BYV 89 47 65 46 / 0 10 0 10 MKO 92 50 73 51 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 88 43 66 48 / 0 0 0 10 F10 94 50 73 52 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 90 57 76 54 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>075.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>061.

AR...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-010.