textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

- Lingering severe weather concerns across southeast Oklahoma will wind down this afternoon as a cold front exits the area.

- Much cooler weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week.

- Rain and thunder chances will continue daily for the next week, with the heaviest and most widespread rain Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A strong cold front has now pushed through most of the forecast area with cooler northerly winds behind it. It will move out of southeast OK over the next two hours. Temperatures have cooled into the 50s to 60s for all areas except south of the front, where temperatures remain in the 70s. Lingering rain showers across much of the area will continue into the evening as warm and moist air rides over the elevated frontal surface, but should diminish in coverage somewhat with time. The severe weather threat will persist near the front for the next hour or two, and then diminish as the front moves south. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to reinvigorate along the upper level front late this evening and overnight, which will be near the I-44 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the 50s across much of northeast OK and northwest AR, with low 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Model guidance suggests Wednesday will be mostly dry, though a few light showers cannot be ruled out, especially during the morning hours. There will be a fairly wide range of temperatures, with upper 60s to low 70s in the north, and mid 70s to near 80 F in the south. Went slightly below NBM as its been much too warm with the airmass observed behind this front. By Thursday, our next storm cycle will begin taking shape, as a trough dives into the area from the northwest, merging with an existing weak low pressure over the Desert Southwest. This will increase both low level warm/moist advection and upper level shear. Multiple shortwaves will pass through the area, kicking off repeated rounds of showers and storms Thursday onwards. As of now, Thursday appears to be the day with most widespread and heaviest rainfall potential. It will remain similarly cool to Wednesday.

Model timing uncertainty begins to grow into Friday, but as of now it appears the next most likely window for rain will be late Friday into Saturday morning, with another round Saturday into Sunday. Each of these rounds of precipitation will likely have embedded thunderstorms, but only a low chance for severe weather. If severe weather were to develop, Friday would be the most likely day. The main focus will likely be the heavy rain potential given weak but vertically deep cape and unusually high precipitable water values above 1.5 inches. Over time, depending on how much rain falls and where it falls, this could increase flash or river flood concerns. The pattern looks to remain unstable into the middle of next week with weak troughing keep precipitation chances above normal and temperatures mostly near normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A couple hour period of thunderstorm impacts will affect all terminals except BVO during the first 6 hours or so of the valid TAF period, with IFR/MVFR ceilings and gusty northerly winds behind a cold front. Reduced visibilities should develop this evening and continue overnight, with a low chance of locally IFR visibilities that will not be mentioned for now. CAMs continue to show isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after 06-08Z, which will be covered by PROB30 groups at all sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 70 56 70 60 / 80 70 20 60 FSM 79 65 80 64 / 90 60 30 30 MLC 77 60 77 63 / 90 40 30 40 BVO 62 51 67 56 / 50 70 10 50 FYV 76 59 74 60 / 80 70 30 20 BYV 75 59 70 58 / 80 70 30 20 MKO 74 58 75 62 / 90 70 20 50 MIO 67 55 67 56 / 90 70 20 40 F10 74 57 73 61 / 90 40 20 60 HHW 79 64 79 64 / 90 40 30 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.