textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1148 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 - Additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday evening with increasing heavy rainfall potential.

- Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

- Unsettled pattern returns late next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 742 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The main updates to the going forecast over the past few hours have been to the near term POP/Wx Type forecasts, adjusting to the latest observational and model trends. Existing development has struggled to both maintain strength and develop into a solid linear structure, likely to due to the fact that this development is ahead of the main cold front. CAM trends show this activity should continue to struggle in this same fashion until more toward mid to late evening into early Saturday morning. Once that occurs, the transition to a dominant wind threat, as well as heavy rain/flash flooding, remains expected. Expect additional updates this evening, tied to observational trends.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Forecast remains consistent with expectation of widespread showers and storms spreading across the local region this evening into the overnight hours and then ending from north to south early Saturday. Isolated to scattered convection may develop this afternoon across E OK and NW AR but confidence remains low in this scenario. Should a storm develop then background conditions would support a brief strong to severe threat. Otherwise, the focus will be the advance cold front and storms initiating on the dryline further southwest and their progress eastward. The early evening time frame should see numerous storms spreading into E OK with a risk of severe weather primarily damaging winds with a more isolated risk of large hail. The tornadic potential continues to be appear low but non zero. With time the severe risk will transition to more of a heavy rain risk. The combination of short term guidance trends and background ensemble data favor a corridor of heavier rains as the convection line slows overnight. A flood watch has been issued for the most likely corridor of these heavier rains.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Showers and isolated storms will be ongoing across SE OK into western AR early Saturday but continue to end from north to south through the morning. Dry weather and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected are wide by afternoon. Sfc high pressure settles over the region and remains largely in place through early next week. A reinforcing weak cold front arrives Tuesday before stronger return flow and warmer temperatures develop by mid week. Shower and thunderstorm chances return by late next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Thunderstorm impacts are expected during a multi-hour period at all terminals prior to 12Z. PROB30 groups for the first 1 to 2 hours of the period are included at all sites given the increasing trend in the coverage of echoes ahead of the main line along the cold front still west of the TAF sites. This pre-line development is shown in CAMs as well. CAMS are in reasonable agreement on the timing and evolution of the line as it progresses east to southeastward across the area, and associated TEMPO and prevailing groups have been adjusted accordingly. Expect IFR conditions and gusty winds with the main line. Reduced visibilities and ceilings will extend for a few hours beyond the period of greatest impacts at each site. Conditions will gradually improve Saturday morning at all sites, with gusty northerly winds prevailing for the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 52 65 42 70 / 90 20 0 0 FSM 57 67 43 72 / 90 80 0 0 MLC 54 65 44 70 / 100 60 0 0 BVO 48 64 37 69 / 90 10 0 0 FYV 50 63 39 68 / 90 50 0 0 BYV 52 61 39 64 / 90 60 0 0 MKO 52 63 40 68 / 90 40 0 0 MIO 49 60 37 65 / 90 20 0 0 F10 52 65 40 68 / 100 40 0 0 HHW 54 66 44 69 / 100 90 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ049-068>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ001-010-019-029.