textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1041 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Cold and breezy conditions tonight behind a cold front. Wind chills are expected to be in the teens by daybreak north of I-40.

- Cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday morning. Light mixed wintry precipitation is expected for some areas Monday into Monday night. There is a low to medium chance for minor impacts, mainly in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR.

- Temperatures warm somewhat into the middle of next week before another potent cold front arrives.

SHORT TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1041 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Breezy northerly winds will continue through the night. Low clouds will gradually thin out leading to clear skies. 925 hPa temps will fall as low as -8 to -10C, with lows in the 20s across the area (lowest in the north). These factors will support very low wind chill values of 10-20 F near dawn.

Some mid and high level clouds will stream into the area during the afternoon helping to keep temperatures down a bit. AI model guidance is a bit cooler during the afternoon than conventional NWP guidance. This is a pattern where models typically warm the surface too aggressively anyway, so kept MaxT's a bit below the NBM.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1041 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A storm system will then approach the area Monday from the west as a closed low transforms into a positively tilted trough. As the trough approaches a weak surface low will develop to the west of the area. A good chunk of the guidance wants to develop light ESE or even SE flow Monday morning. As a result, low temperatures warm up fairly substantially in spite of the cold airmass in place, with low temperatures into Monday morning right near freezing. The rest of the guidance, including AI guidance, keeps light ENE flow, and as a result the low temperatures are colder. This is another area where conventional NWP models are often too quick to reverse the flow and warm us up. This is especially true given that we will still have high pressure to the northeast. The forecast was adjusted with this in mind to keep low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s in the north and low 30s in the south.

Warm advection is expected to result in areas of rain, sleet, or freezing drizzle near and southeast of I-44, and north of I-40 Monday morning. Additionally, areas of higher elevation anywhere in southeast OK will be at risk. Total accumulation will not be much, but a light glaze will be possible. Travel impacts are not expected in most locations given the marginal thermal profile, but isolated slick roadways are possible. As the upper level low passes by later Monday, some light snow may develop, mainly north of I-40 and especially in northwest AR. Maintained some minimal snow accumulation for these areas, but locally up to 1 inch remains possible. One last surge of cold air is anticipated into Tuesday morning, with lows in the teens to mid 20s.

A brief warming trend follows, with highs back into the upper 40s to low 50s by Wednesday. No rain will occur during this period. Another potent cold front will blast into the area Thursday, with very chilly air returning. Ensemble guidance has trended wetter for Friday as warm and moist air moves in aloft. For now, the majority of guidance says rain would still be favored, but a subset of guidance shows the potential for wintry precipitation. Left mostly rain in the forecast, but included some mixed precip near the KS border where the potential is highest. Warmer and drier weather begins to return towards next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Widespread VFR will continue to prevail, with mid/high level clouds, through the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to veer from north to northeast by this evening, and eventually east-northeast by the end of the TAF period, and will slowly decrease through the daytime. Occasional gusts 20-25 knots will be possible through the morning hours this morning.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 35 28 34 23 / 0 10 30 10 FSM 41 29 36 26 / 0 10 30 20 MLC 39 29 39 23 / 0 10 30 10 BVO 34 26 34 18 / 0 10 40 10 FYV 36 25 36 21 / 0 10 30 20 BYV 33 25 31 21 / 0 10 30 30 MKO 37 29 35 21 / 0 10 30 10 MIO 32 25 32 19 / 0 10 40 30 F10 37 28 36 21 / 0 10 20 10 HHW 43 31 36 24 / 0 10 40 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.