textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1005 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 - Fire weather concerns will be on the increase through Thursday, due to the warm and windy conditions. The potential will be highest on Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures and precipitation (some wintry?) chances return by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A tight gradient between high pressure over the Southeast and lee side low pressure over the central High Plains will maintain some southerly wind overnight, with the exception of the sheltered lower Ark River Valley. There will also be an increase in mid and high level cloud, as well as lower level cloud mainly south of the Ouachitas. As a result, Tuesday morning lows will be mild and closer to average highs for this time of year.

The pressure gradient will tighten further on Tuesday as lee side pressures fall in advance of the approaching storm system currently near the West Coast. Wind gusts will ramp up quickly at the start of BL mixing mid-morning, with gusts near advisory level (40 mph) possible across far NE OK into NW AR and between 30 and 40 mph in most other places. After a brief drop around midday, gusts should increase again during the afternoon and early evening. Persistent mid and high cloud cover (some of which may be thick per high RH progs in the entire 500-250mb layer) may limit mixing enough to keep gusts below max potential.

Despite the strong, gusty winds and warm, dry conditions, moisture return will keep dewpoints in the 50s ahead of the dryline which is expected to stay west of the forecast area during the afternoon. Thus, RH values are not expected to drop to low levels across eastern OK and western AR. In addition, the aforementioned cloud cover is likely to limit mixing, which can act to enhance fire behavior. These factors will act to limit the overall fire weather threat Tuesday.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

The gradient will relax over the region Tuesday night into Wednesday as a Pacific front moves across the area in tandem with the eastward progression of low pressure across the northern Plains. Much drier air will move into the region behind the weakening front. Clouds should thin out by Wednesday as well allowing for more sun that day. Some increase in south winds/gusts is expected by late in the day west of highway 75 in NE OK as the next area of low pressure emerges onto the central High Plains. With the dry air in place, wind gusts 20 to 30 mph could create a short-duration near critical fire weather threat there until sunset Wednesday evening.

Thursday is shaping up to have the greatest fire weather potential due to the most favorable combination of winds, sunshine and low humidity. Low level moisture return Wednesday night in southerly flow ahead of the low pressure system will be shunted east quickly during the day Thursday by an advancing Pacific front/dryline south of the surface low over KS. With dry air in place, models forecast RH values to tank to near or even below 20% in the afternoon. This dry air will combine with what looks like near advisory level gusts out of the west to southwest in favorable mixing conditions with near full insolation to yield near critical fire weather conditions over much of the area and for a longer duration.

A polar cold front will approach the KS state line by the end of the day and then advance southeast across the region Thursday night behind the low pressure system. Much cooler weather and lighter winds will put an end to the fire weather threat for the time being on Friday.

Uncertainty in the details increases considerably toward the end of the week, but most models bring a shortwave trough across the central part of the country in the Saturday-ish time frame. The GFS, UKMET and EC-AIFS bring a vigorous system with an expansive comma-head shaped precip pattern across the region during this time, with thermal profiles cold enough near the KS/MO borders for snow, and enough QPF to yield impactful accumulations. Other data, such as the most probable 12z ensemble clusters (scenarios), operational EC and Canadian suggest a much weaker system and light precip at best. The EC ensemble mean has very light accums, though the trend has been upward. Given the uncertainties the forecast will likely stay close to the model blend (NBM) forecast for now. This will insert light accums near the KS border, but this bears watching.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period with increasing high clouds streaming over the region. Winds will become gusty again during the day tomorrow out of the south-southwest. Gusts of 25-30 knots will be possible tomorrow afternoon. LLWS mention will be maintained tonight into Tuesday morning. Some low clouds may try to surge north late tonight across far SE OK or NW AR, but should stay south and east of any TAF sites as it looks right now, but a low chance for reduced CIG conditions are possible across SE OK into W AR Tuesday morning.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 54 75 49 76 / 0 0 10 0 FSM 47 73 53 77 / 0 0 10 0 MLC 53 73 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 49 75 42 75 / 0 0 10 0 FYV 47 72 52 75 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 49 71 56 74 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 51 72 50 75 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 51 72 48 74 / 0 0 20 0 F10 53 73 50 76 / 0 0 10 0 HHW 50 70 55 74 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.