textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 - The next storm system arrives Friday evening into Saturday bringing strong winds, rain, and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

- Very cold temperatures Sunday through Tuesday morning. There will be a slight chance of snow for northern areas and a wintry mix for southern areas on Monday.

- Temperatures warm somewhat into the middle of next week with dry conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Cool and quiet conditions tonight with lows mostly in the low 30s in the north and mid 30s in the south. Clouds will increase but no rain will occur.

With the next storm system approaching from the west, breezy southerly flow will develop during the day. Temperatures will warm a few degrees above yesterday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. As the low level jet cranks up during the evening, the mid levels will saturate with some instability developing. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will form, persisting into the overnight hours. Model guidance shows the slightly better instability for southern areas, so storms will be most favored south of I-40. Severe weather is not expected.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Cooling upper levels Saturday morning will reinvigorate precipitation, with a few additional thunderstorms possible. NAEFS specific humidity for the lower atmosphere shows values near the 90- 95th percentile for this time of year, so some locally heavy rainfall may occur, but total rainfall amounts will probably be too low for flood concerns. Breezy southerly flow will continue, with gusts of 25-35 mph. Some guidance shows even stronger wind speeds so a Wind Advisory is not totally out of the question. Then the well advertised cold front will punch through, ending precipitation. Northerly winds will be strong being the front, gusting to 25-40 mph (strongest in northeast OK). This will again be close to Wind Advisory criteria but likely just shy. Temperatures will quickly decline, falling to near or below freezing by late evening Saturday.

Sunday morning will see low temperatures in the 20s (lowest in the north). Wind chills will be in the teens north of I-40 and low 20s south of I-40. 925 hPa temperatures as low as -10C will keep temperatures down Sunday afternoon, with low to mid 30s across the forecast area. EPS EFI for MaxT Sunday-Monday will range from -0.7 to -0.9 which represents an unusual, but not extreme event, for this time of year. Accordingly, in spite of it being the coldest airmass of the year so far, no records are in jeopardy with the current forecast.

The next storm system arrives on Monday from the west, bringing a threat of wintry precipitation to the area. Models continue to waffle with respect to the orientation, strength, and timing of this storm system. This affects precipitation type and intensity. Ensemble guidance simply has not coalesced enough around a consensus solution for any serious confidence in the forecast outcome. With that said, the overall favored outcome would suggest a wintry mixture of all precipitation types is possible south of I-40, with mainly snow north of that line. Total amounts will probably be minimal for most areas, with the current forecast spreading a broad area of 0.1 to 0.2 inches of snow north of I-40, and a light glaze near and south of there. A few isolated locations could see up to an inch or so of snow. This implies some localized impacts could reasonably be expected if the high end snowfall amounts verify. In terms of temperatures, most areas will stay near to just above freezing during the day, with low to mid 20s Tuesday morning.

A brief warming trend will ensue Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with highs returning to the 40s to low 50s. Ensemble guidance is confident in dry conditions for these days. Another cold and dry front may move into the area for the tail end of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

High clouds will increase across the region tonight and Friday, with clouds lowering later Friday into Friday evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and expand into eastern Oklahoma by late Friday evening. Local MVFR conditions are expected in and near the precipitation areas. This activity will spread into western Arkansas just after this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 53 33 58 46 / 0 0 0 70 FSM 56 34 59 43 / 0 0 0 90 MLC 57 34 59 46 / 0 0 0 80 BVO 54 28 57 43 / 0 0 0 50 FYV 52 30 52 40 / 0 0 0 90 BYV 50 30 51 39 / 0 0 0 90 MKO 57 34 56 44 / 0 0 0 80 MIO 50 30 54 42 / 0 0 0 80 F10 56 34 57 45 / 0 0 0 80 HHW 59 35 59 43 / 0 0 0 80

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.