textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1209 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Low-medium thunderstorm chances continue Thursday and again Friday afternoon.

- Drier and hotter conditions return by this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday Night) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Weak mid level area of low pressure across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Wednesday evening is expected to slowly move northwestward Wednesday night and exit Thursday morning. The northwestward movement was in response to the disturbance caught up in the flow rotating around an upper low pressure over southwest Texas. Embedded areas of vorticity within this mid level low will aid in a slight chance of showers and storm remaining for parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Thursday morning.

Also Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, rains from Wednesday combined with light winds will create the potential for patchy fog to develop. The greater potential is over far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. However, a limiting factor will be the amount of cloud cover associated with the mid level disturbance and if the clouds can scatter out. Any areas of reduced visibility should quickly improve by mid morning Thursday.

During the day Thursday, a frontal zone/low level Theta-e axis is expected to lift north/northeast and set up over northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. At the same time, the area of low pressure in Texas is forecast to begin slowly lifting northward. These two features will allow for slight to low end chances of showers and thunderstorms again for the CWA. The greater potential looks to be in far southeast Oklahoma from the Texas low pressure, and far northeast Oklahoma/far northwest Arkansas with the lifting boundary. Marginal flow over the region, will keep severe potentials isolated with gusty winds and a heavy rain threat persisting through Thursday early evening. Storm development should weaken with the loss of daytime heating.

Storm coverage is forecast to be less Thursday afternoon and as such, afternoon temperatures look to be a little warmer with upper 80s and lower 90s forecast. Temperatures Thursday night look to remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

High pressure is progged to expand from the southeast Gulf Coast into the southern Plains Friday. The CWA looks to be on the western periphery of the ridge, which could allow for additional low shower/storm chances Friday afternoon. Coverage looks to be even less than Thursday with rising mid level heights. Afternoon temperatures should respond with highs a degree or so warmer compared to Thursday afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure expand over the region Saturday and then gets absorbed with an expanding ridge of high pressure from the west late weekend. The dome of high pressure looks to remain over the region through the first half of next week. Underneath high pressure, a more southwesterly low level flow will aid in the return of hot and humid conditions to the CWA this weekend into next week. Heat index values in the 100 to 110 degree range are forecast each day for parts of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. If this trend continues to hold, heat headlines will likely be needed for parts of the CWA. Also, with the region underneath high pressure, rain/storm chances become minimal into the first part of next week.

Latest model solutions continue to hint at the ridge retreating westward during the middle of next week which could allow for a shortwave to drop southeast through the Plains along the eastern periphery of the ridge. As of now, there is uncertainty with how far south/southeast this wave and associated frontal boundary could get before moving off to the east. At this time, the forecast trends are leaning toward the CWA remaining south of this wave, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to around 103 degrees for the middle of next week. If the wave/boundary could make it into the CWA, then cooler conditions and rain potentials could develop...something to watch for next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The forecast will be challenging tonight, especially across NW AR, where widespread rains fell and enough breaks in the mid cloud are observed on satellite to allow for some radiational cooling and the threat for low cloud and fog. Area obs already showing IFR or blo cigs and/or vsbys in that area. Not sure how this is going to go. Satellite shows some mid cloud moving across the region, but will it be enough to prevent dense fog formation? Given uncertainty, followed LAMP guidance closely through morning. After the fog and low cloud burns off, expect some cu and some mid cloud through the day with some increase in south to southwest wind. Coverage of showers and storms too low to mention except for the NW AR sites where a prob30 was maintained from previous forecast.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 74 92 76 95 / 10 20 10 10 FSM 74 93 75 95 / 10 20 10 10 MLC 73 92 74 93 / 10 20 0 10 BVO 71 92 72 94 / 10 30 10 10 FYV 70 89 72 91 / 10 20 0 10 BYV 70 89 72 91 / 10 20 10 10 MKO 72 91 73 93 / 10 20 0 10 MIO 72 90 73 92 / 10 20 10 10 F10 71 90 73 93 / 10 20 0 10 HHW 72 90 73 93 / 10 20 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.