textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Widespread dangerous heat continue through Tuesday, with afternoon heat indices of 105-115 F. Dangerous heat persists for portions of the area through Friday.

- A minor cool down and a chance of showers and storms is expected mid to late week. A more substantial cool down may then occur over the weekend behind a weak cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Mid/upper level ridge will remain in control over the region in the short-term period. As a result, itll be another wash, rinse, and repeat forecast for Tuesday, with dangerous, oppressive heat impacting the area during the afternoon and early evening hours. No changes were made to the current Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat Warning, which will go into effect from noon until 8 PM Tuesday. A few counties (particularly Delaware and Pittsburg counties in OK and Benton and Carroll counties in AR) in the Advisory may need to upgraded to a Warning if temperatures and/or dewpoint temperatures trend higher than forecast.

Model guidance continues to show a subtle mid-level shortwave trough digging southeast along the eastern periphery of the ridge late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Despite the shortwave grazing northeast portions of the forecast area, much of the precipitation is anticipated to remain north and east of the area, closer to the center of the shortwave. However, most recent runs of CAMs suggest a few showers and non-severe thunderstorms developing near an approaching weak backdoor cold front and on the southern fringe of the shortwave as early as late Tuesday afternoon, with a slight uptick in coverage and intensity late Tuesday night and through daybreak Wednesday morning. Went ahead and added some low PoPs to capture this possible scenario, with low confidence on coverage and exact timing. The weak front is expected to move into portions of northeast OK and far northwest AR, where it is expected to severely slow down or stall into Wednesday.

Most locations are forecast to remain dry Tuesday evening and night. Thus, another unseasonably warm night is expected with perhaps slightly more cloud cover, especially the eastern half of the CWA, than previous nights. Overnight lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The upper-level ridge that is currently plaguing the region is anticipated to briefly weaken and shift westward Tuesday into Wednesday, before restrengthening over the Desert Southwest during the daytime on Thursday. As it shifts west, eastern OK and northwest AR will be caught in a northwest flow aloft. This will do two things...allow for potential mesoscale features and boundaries to move into or through the area, and decrease the potent subsidence currently occurring. As a result of both of these, temperatures will gradually cool off slightly, closer seasonal average from mid to late week.

Models and ensembles show a series of shortwave troughs moving across the Midwest Region between Wednesday and Friday, introducing isolated to widely scattered (20-60%) showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly for the northeastern half of the forecast area. At the surface, the stalled frontal boundary from Tuesday night will lift north as a warm front on Thursday as an area of low pressure develops across the High Plains and lifts northeast across the Great Plains Thursday evening and night. As it lifts further north and east, it will drag a weak cold front through the entire forecast area sometime Friday afternoon/evening, with exact timing still uncertain. Though not a ton of precipitation is expected with the front, temperatures will cool down closer to or even slightly below seasonal averages (highs in the low-mid 90s) Saturday, Sunday, and into Monday.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions should prevail during the period. A boundary will approach and eventually move through parts of NE OK and also NW AR late this afternoon into the evening, with southerly winds becoming more east to northeast, albeit still at lighter speeds, as this occurs. Evening shower and thunderstorm development is expected primarily in NW AR, but the bulk of the activity should be east of the TAF sites until after 29/06Z. The chance of on-station impacts is low enough with this set to preclude mention, but if trends continue, will likely be included in the 12Z TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 81 102 82 100 / 0 0 10 10 FSM 79 102 80 98 / 0 0 20 20 MLC 79 101 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 78 101 79 98 / 0 10 20 10 FYV 77 98 78 93 / 0 10 30 50 BYV 77 99 76 90 / 0 20 30 60 MKO 77 100 78 99 / 0 0 10 10 MIO 78 99 78 94 / 0 10 30 50 F10 77 102 78 101 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 76 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-063- 068-069-073-075-172-276-376.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ055>062-064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-119-120-229.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129- 219-220.