textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1136 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Hot and humid weather continues Monday, with afternoon heat index values near or above 100 degrees in some places yet again.

- Shower and storm chances increase some late Monday into Tuesday, with temperatures dialing back several degrees.

- Cooler and less humid weather is expected Wednesday following the passage of a weak cold front.

- Unsettled weather returns late week into next weekend with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Moisture pooling across far northeast into north-central OK pushed afternoon heat indices to just under advisory criteria, though Tulsa Riverside Airport did get to 106 heat index, making criteria. A surface trough from north-central down to southwest OK set off some brief attempts at storms, however nothing could get going and the forecast area stayed dry. Several earlier HRRR runs have suggested that a cluster of storms developing over eastern KS could push outflow into NE OK late tonight or early Monday morning and generate showers and storms. Given uncertainty, will include slight chances up against the KS and MO borders.

Will have to watch forecast temps and humidity levels on Monday for the chance an advisory may be needed for parts of the area. The current forecast has values in the triple digits, but not quite to advisory levels and will thus hold off on heat headlines at this time. There are now hints at late day showers and storms along an advancing outflow/front back-dooring from the northeast. With upper heights still slowly rising and the ridge center sitting over the Red River, the environment aloft will not be overly favorable for sustained convection, unless a storm cluster can ride an outflow. Inserted a band of slight chance to chance PoPs starting late afternoon and dropping south into the evening.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

CAMs are now pretty aggressive at bringing convection off the higher terrain and into the central Plains Monday night into Tuesday morning, with one or more clusters/complexes riding outflow to the east and southeast into the forecast area and then more south across the forecast area during the first part of the day Tuesday. The initial activity that pushes into NE OK could have some damaging wind potential, with lessening severe potential afterward. Depending on how this plays out, some storm chance could linger in the south along an outflow boundary Tuesday afternoon. The negative factor for storm coverage will be the ridging that still exists aloft. This makes the temperature forecast for Tuesday more uncertain, but certainly should be cooler than Monday. Temperatures and humidity will dial back by Wednesday as an expansive surface high centered over the Great Lakes back-doors some cooler and drier air into the forecast area from the east and northeast. The best rain/storm chances should stay west of the forecast area Wednesday. The ridge aloft shifts east by Thursday, with SW flow returning to the area. The expansive eastern CONUS surface ridge shifts south and east, and better moisture will begin to return. Rain/storm chances will return especially in the west by Thursday afternoon and will continue to ramp up into next weekend over the entire area with SW flow aloft increasing ahead of a weak southern stream trough over the Southwest.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Scattered/broken high clouds remain common overnight for the CWA. Ongoing convection in southeast Kansas will have the potential to sag southeast into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas late tonight/Monday morning along an outflow boundary. For now will hold off on mentioning in TAFs due to uncertainty of coverage and impacts to any one terminal, though will be closely monitored through the night. During the day Monday scattered mid and high clouds are forecast for much of the CWA. The outflow boundary moving into the CWA could spark afternoon/evening convection across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Again, will hold on mentioning in the TAFs with mid level ridging over the region. Winds through the period start out southerly, become west to southwest Monday, and then more variable afternoon/evening with the boundary. VFR conditions are currently forecast for the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 71 88 67 83 / 30 30 0 0 FSM 72 89 65 84 / 20 30 0 0 MLC 72 91 68 86 / 10 20 0 0 BVO 69 87 65 82 / 30 20 0 0 FYV 70 86 61 82 / 20 20 0 0 BYV 67 81 57 78 / 10 10 0 0 MKO 71 89 66 83 / 20 30 0 0 MIO 69 85 63 82 / 10 10 0 0 F10 70 89 66 84 / 20 20 0 0 HHW 72 92 68 84 / 20 20 20 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.