textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Thunderstorm chances return Saturday however confidence is low in exact placement and coverage.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures return this weekend through at least the middle of next week. Heat headlines may be needed at times.

- While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 36 hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Mainly dry weather is expected overnight tonight, with temperatures remaining above the seasonal averages. Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s with light southeast winds.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase near or shortly after sunrise Saturday, but confidence remains low in coverage and location of the best storm chances. Thus have stuck with the NBM depiction of the highest pops across northeast Oklahoma during the morning, with activity spreading south and east while diminishing in coverage by early afternoon. Temperatures are also problematic Saturday, and again the NBM looks like a good first guess, with highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees. Afternoon heat index values may reach near 105 degrees in some places Saturday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to issue a heat advisory at this time.

Another chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist Saturday evening into early Sunday as storms that fire along a weak surface boundary just to our north may move south into the area. Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas are most likely to see storm impacts during this time frame.

By Sunday, an upper ridge builds back more strongly over the area ending most precipitation chances. Unseasonably hot temperatures will prevail Sunday through at least the middle of next week, and heat headlines may be required for some locations each day.

A cold front may move into the area by late next week bringing cooler temperatures and increasing shower and thunderstorm chances, but confidence in the timing of this front remains low.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. There remains significant uncertainty regarding thunderstorm potential over the next 24 hours, with slightly higher potential favored in northern areas. Right now though the uncertainty precludes any mention in the forecast. Some light fog possible mainly at KFYV late tonight/early Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 73 95 73 98 / 0 30 30 10 FSM 73 99 74 100 / 0 20 20 10 MLC 74 99 74 100 / 0 20 20 10 BVO 65 94 68 97 / 0 40 30 20 FYV 66 95 68 97 / 0 30 20 20 BYV 68 93 69 95 / 0 30 20 30 MKO 70 97 70 99 / 0 30 20 10 MIO 67 92 69 95 / 0 30 30 20 F10 71 98 71 99 / 0 30 20 10 HHW 74 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.