textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- Low shower and storm chances Sunday and Sunday night. Limited severe risk Sunday evening.

- Numerous showers and storms late Monday and Tuesday. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

- Cooler temperatures Wednesday with continued low rain chances through the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday evening) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Strong low level jet is aiding a broad swath of low level moisture advection which will contribute to increasing instability across the local region Sunday through Monday. It is likely that several subtle mid level waves passing across the region Sunday through Monday with at least periods of weak lift within the weakly capped and unstable conditions. Low level focus for storm initiation is largely absent across the forecast area which typically acts to reduce storm potential, however confidence is not high enough to preclude a mention so low thunderstorms chances will be included area wide Sunday through Monday. A more defined focus will be the dryline across western OK both Sunday and Monday afternoon, and should storms develop within that corridor, then they could possibly move into portions of E OK before dissipating. Any storms that do develop and/or move into the region will pose a limited severe risk through Monday evening. Additionally, gusty winds will continue and likely approach wind advisory across portions of NE OK on Sunday and more so by Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Guidance remains in general agreement on storms spreading southeastward late Monday evening through Monday night. It is likely that storms will outpace the actual cold front and may remain organized into the overnight hours with a continued risk of severe weather before a weakening trend is realized. The composite cold front / thunderstorm outflow will be a focus for renewed storm development Tuesday however placement of this favored corridor will be uncertain until Monday night storm trends are realized. A period of both severe weather and heavy rainfall potential may develop Tuesday afternoon through evening before the boundary pushes further south.

Cooler temperatures follow for mid week however the elevated frontal zone continues to be shown as a focus for persistent shower and thunderstorm chances mid to late weak. The more stable boundary layer and expectation of weaker flow aloft will likely limit the overall severe potential.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Low clouds will continue to spread northward through the morning hours, with MVFR cigs developing across at least SE OK and W-Central AR. However, MVFR ceilings will be possible through early afternoon areawide. Scattered showers have also developed this morning within the moisture advection regime, though impacts from these showers should remain minimal over the next several hours. A return to VFR is expected this afternoon as low clouds become more scattered/lift. There is a low chance (20 percent) of additional shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon, but probability of impacts at any one site remain too low to include in the TAF at this time. Sfc winds will strengthen again this morning and afternoon, with gusts up to 30 kts. LLWS will develop once again this evening and tonight areawide. There is at least some signal for MVFR cigs to redevelop tonight, late in the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 88 73 87 68 / 10 20 20 50 FSM 89 72 88 72 / 20 20 30 10 MLC 88 75 87 73 / 20 20 30 10 BVO 88 71 87 62 / 10 20 20 70 FYV 84 71 84 71 / 20 20 30 20 BYV 85 71 84 72 / 20 20 30 20 MKO 86 72 86 70 / 20 20 30 30 MIO 86 72 85 68 / 20 20 30 50 F10 87 73 87 70 / 20 20 20 30 HHW 88 73 86 72 / 20 20 30 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.