textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Very hot conditions are expected through Tuesday, with afternoon heat indices of 105-113 for much of the area.

- A weak cold front may bring minimal heat relief Wednesday, but the heat will return in earnest late week.

- Isolated showers and storms may develop Monday afternoon, with dry weather expected until at least Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A quiet night is expected with dry conditions across the area, though a stray shower in northwest Arkansas is possible (10% chance). Temperatures will edge slightly upwards compared to last night as the upper level high becomes the dominant influence on the weather pattern. Lows will reach the mid to upper 70s.

Monday will be several degrees warmer than Sunday, with mid to upper 90s (perhaps as high as 100 F). Dew points will remain high given recent rains, so heat indices of 105-110 F are expected. Accordingly, the Heat Advisory was expanded to cover the entire forecast area. A couple of isolated showers or storms across the AR high terrain may develop during the afternoon, with gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and lightning being the expected impacts.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The upper level ridge will be squarely overhead Tuesday with even stronger heating in the lower atmosphere. High temperatures will reach their peak Tuesday, with widespread upper 90s to low 100s. Heat indices of 105-113 F are expected. An Excessive Heat Watch was issued for the areas which will be the hottest. A weak cold front will then move in Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This cold front is expected to be dry, but will at least knock temperatures down a few degrees.

The upper level ridge will remain in control, but will shift slightly west by Friday. At the surface this will do nothing for temperatures, with highs actually expected to increase back to the upper 90s to low 100s. But the shift may allow for a few showers and storms to return to northwest AR. By Saturday, the ridge will have shifted far enough west for a weak shortwave trough to clip the area. Models have become more confident in this outcome over the last day, with rain chances also increasing. With that said, there is still considerable uncertainty in the exact placement and timing of the trough as well as any precipitation chances. Temperatures are expected to come down at least a little bit by next Sunday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A very low chance of on-station shower or thunderstorm impacts exists tomorrow afternoon at MLC and the W AR terminals but will not be mentioned in the TAFs. Winds through the period will remain under 10 kts and largely from the south to southwest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 78 100 80 103 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 77 100 79 102 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 76 98 77 102 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 75 100 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 73 96 75 98 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 73 96 75 99 / 20 20 0 0 MKO 75 97 77 100 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 75 98 77 101 / 10 0 0 0 F10 75 98 77 102 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 75 97 76 101 / 20 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053- 055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ055>058-060>063-066-067-070-071-074-176-254- 272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-119-120-129-219-220-229.

Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for ARZ129-219-220.