textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Slight cooling is expected for some areas Thursday, but temperatures will remain above average, with slight warming returning into the weekend.

- Isolated showers may occur at times for the next several days, but overall dry weather will continue.

- Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying fuels and periods of gusty winds.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Temperatures will remain very mild overnight, but with some cooling in the north behind the cold front. Lows will range from the low 70s in the north to near 80 across southeast Oklahoma. The cold front will gradually move south, stalling somewhere across southeast Oklahoma to perhaps as far as the Red River. A few showers and storms may develop near the elevated frontal boundary overnight. These isolated storms may produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain, but totals will likely stay minimal.

Thursday will be several degrees cooler than Wednesday, but still well above normal. Highs will mostly be in the upper 90s in the north and low 100s in the south. Far southern Oklahoma will see little cooling impact so an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect there for the afternoon hours, with a Heat Advisory extending north to a little north of I-40. Some CAMs indicate a resurgence of showers and storms near the dying cold front during the afternoon hours, so raised NBM pops to mentionable in the south.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The upper level ridge will remain to the west of the area the next several days, but plenty close enough to keep very hot temperatures in place. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the next week, generally in the low 100s across eastern OK and west- central AR, with upper 90s in northwest AR. Mid level flow will increase slightly Friday through at least Monday as a series of weak shortwaves pass through the area. These shortwaves will promote just enough lift for the risk of a few showers and thunderstorms, though coverage will probably remain isolated and focused across northwest Arkansas.

Heading into the middle of next week most guidance keeps the ridge west of the area, which would keep hot weather in place but with a slight chance of showers persisting at times. Other guidance moves the ridge overhead which would be slightly hotter and end any chance of precipitation. The most likely outcome is a continuation of the same pattern with hot and mostly dry conditions, but periodic slight chances of rain. In net, this means a continued drying of fuels and increasing fire weather potential for many areas over time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A band of some high-based showers and possibly a few storms is possible through early morning across the region as lift occurs north of the front and in advance of a shortwave trough diving southeast over the central CONUS. VCSH prevailing with PROB30 TSRA mention was maintained at most sites to handle this lower coverage/confidence scenario, as some model solutions are fairly dry overnight into Thursday morning. Outside of a storm impacting a terminal, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with sfc winds blo impactful levels.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 100 74 102 76 / 0 20 10 20 FSM 104 75 104 74 / 20 10 10 20 MLC 105 75 106 76 / 20 10 20 20 BVO 97 69 101 71 / 0 20 10 20 FYV 98 69 100 72 / 0 10 20 20 BYV 95 69 96 72 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 100 73 103 74 / 10 10 20 20 MIO 96 70 99 73 / 0 20 10 20 F10 102 73 103 74 / 20 10 10 20 HHW 103 76 103 76 / 20 20 10 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ065-066-070-071-073>075-176-272-276-376.

Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.