textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1235 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Above average temperatures and dry weather will persist Thursday.

- Increasing chances for rain and a few storms are expected this weekend as an upper disturbance moves across.

- Confidence continues to increase that a more widespread precipitation event and cool down will occur Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Mid-level ridging centered over the western Gulf coast continues to dominate the region, keeping high pressure anchored over much of the Southern Plains. Light northeast/east surface winds will gradually shift out of the southeast overnight tonight and into Thursday as surface high pressure across the Great Lakes region slides eastward.

Model guidance is in solid agreement on dry and unseasonably warm conditions persisting through the daytime Thursday. Despite an increase in low-level moisture from southerly winds, the boundary layer across eastern OK and northwest AR remains too dry and stable for any afternoon pop-up convection. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid/upper 80s (north) to the low/mid 90s (south), or about 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal average. Overnight lows Thursday night will remain mild, hovering in the low/mid 60s underneath partly to mostly cloudy mid and high clouds.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

The synoptic pattern begins to transition on Friday as a shortwave trough ejects out of the Southwest CONUS and over the High Plains. This feature will weaken and flatten the expansive ridge that is currently plaguing the region. As this occurs, it will allow a plume of mid-level moisture to overspread much of OK. The most recent run of the NBM introduced low-end shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) as early as mid-morning Friday and continuing through Friday afternoon, primarily for locations north and west of the Tulsa metro. Meanwhile, global models have been persistent in showing precipitation chances beginning as early as overnight Thursday night. Will go ahead and account for this and will throw in low, mentionable PoPs between midnight and sunrise Friday for the northwest corner of the CWA. These low precipitation chances will remain confined north of I-44 through the day Friday. Rainfall amounts should remain light and non- impactful. Temperatures during the daytime on Friday should be a few degrees cooler compared to Thursday as cloud cover is forecast to thicken.

Precipitation chances will increase and become more widespread from late Friday night through Sunday as the mid-level trough rides over the ridge and pushes across the Central/Southern Plains. Generally, the best precip chances (50-70%) will occur near and north of I-40 late Saturday night through Sunday morning. As the previous discussion mentions, despite the continuous rain chances this weekend, it does not appear to be a wash-out. Consensus in models keep rainfall amounts generally less than an inch, but ensembles and a few global model outliers indicate it is possible a few isolated locations may exceed an inch. Severe weather looks unlikely at this time, with limited deep-layer shear and instability in place. However, moderate to heavy rainfall may occur from time to time as PWATs approach 1.5 to 1.75 inches.

As the shortwave trough exits Sunday night into Monday morning, shortwave ridging will fill in behind it. This will lead to mostly dry conditions by Monday afternoon, with temperatures warming back up into the upper 80s and lower 90s for most locations. Latest ensembles and long-range deterministic models continue to build confidence in forecasting a much stronger upper-level trough and associated cold front sweeping southward across the Central CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday. Widespread moderate to heavy rain, as well as a noticeable drop in temperatures are expected with the frontal passage.

Mejia

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions expected area wide with increasing mid and high cloud through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 89 66 85 69 / 0 0 10 20 FSM 89 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 94 64 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 86 61 82 64 / 0 10 30 30 FYV 86 57 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 82 59 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 89 62 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 84 61 82 67 / 0 0 10 20 F10 90 62 87 67 / 0 0 10 20 HHW 91 62 90 67 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.