textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Rain chances continue into Saturday, spreading west to east before tapering off Saturday evening/night. - Shower and storm chances increase Monday into Tuesday, a limited severe potential and a heavy rain threat exists Monday afternoon/night.

- A cold front early next week will drop temperatures closer to seasonal average midweek.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday Night) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered rain showers are expected to spread across parts of eastern Oklahoma through early Saturday morning as a mid level disturbance lifts northeast into the region. Farther east, into northwest Arkansas, a layer of drier low level air will limit the eastward extent of the light rain into Saturday morning, though a chance of a sprinkle exists.

During the day Saturday, this layer of drier air is forecast to erode from southwest to northeast with rain chances spreading across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain chances begin to taper off from west to east Saturday evening, and are forecast to exit northwest Arkansas late Saturday night once the backside of the mid level disturbance departs the region. These rain chances could impact outdoor activity through Saturday night. However, overall rainfall amounts should remain generally light with less than a quarter inch common, and locally up to a half inch with any stronger showers. Thunder potential also remains at 10 percent or less for most locations.

Cloud cover and low level moisture moving into the region will help to keep temperatures Saturday morning in the 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures try to warm back into the upper 60s and lower 70s during the day Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Mostly cloudy conditions with the potential for a few breaks in the clouds are anticipated Sunday while weak ridge of high pressure moves across the southern Plains. This will help temps warm into the 70s for the CWA, while winds remain light.

A low pressure system, still just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest remains progged to move through the Western CONUS over the weekend and into the Plains Monday and Tuesday. This wave is forecast to join up with shortwave and a surge of tropical moisture moving into the southwest CONUS Sunday/Sunday night before it moves into the Plains. The low pressure system and an associated cold front are then forecast to move into/across the CWA Monday night and Tuesday. Ahead of the approaching storm system, gusty southerly winds will help transport precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches, which is near climatological max for early November, into the region.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return during the day Monday for northeast Oklahoma and then spread over the CWA with the movement of the cold front into Tuesday. Deep layer shear values and increasing instability will allow for at least a limited severe potential Monday afternoon into Monday night. The greater potential looks to be across eastern Oklahoma at this time, though if the front/low pressure system arrives faster than more of the CWA could be in play. Also, as of now, all modes of severe weather could be possible, as low level shear and low level storm relative helicity looks to increase just ahead of the front Monday evening. In addition to the severe threat, a heavy rain threat that could create localized flooding conditions also exists with the deep moisture plume setting up over the region. A limiting factor to this is storms could be moving 40-50mph, though any training of storms will increase this threat.

Storm chances taper off with the frontal passage, and then rain chances should be ending Tuesday afternoon/evening once the upper level trof axis clears the region. Behind the frontal boundary, breezy northwest/northerly winds and temperatures more closer to the seasonal average for November are forecast for the second half of next week. Another quick moving shortwave looks to push across the Plains late in the week, though with limited moisture to work with will hold onto only slight chances of rain.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered showers will be possible at times today through this evening. Initially VFR conditions will deteriorate with time later this afternoon and tonight, with mainly MVFR conditions expected at the northeast Oklahoma sites and IFR or lower conditions at the southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites by late tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 70 61 75 65 / 40 20 10 0 FSM 70 62 76 65 / 60 50 10 0 MLC 70 61 76 64 / 50 20 10 0 BVO 70 59 74 62 / 30 20 10 0 FYV 72 58 73 61 / 50 60 10 0 BYV 72 61 73 62 / 40 60 10 0 MKO 70 58 75 63 / 50 30 10 0 MIO 72 59 74 62 / 40 50 10 0 F10 70 58 76 63 / 40 10 10 0 HHW 70 62 78 64 / 60 20 10 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.