textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 536 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

- Dry and mild temperatures through Wednesday.

- Periods of rain and thunderstorms expected Thursday through Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall totals likely.

- The next storm system timed to impact the region early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Warm and dry weather continues Wednesday as winds veer ahead of the next weak cold front. This boundary moves into the region Wed. night with the only notable influence being to reinforce the low level dry airmass currently in place.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Increasing cloud cover and strengthening southeasterly winds will mark the approach of the next storm system on Thursday. Isolated showers may spread into portions of E OK Thursday afternoon, but the more widespread showers and storms are expected to develop Thursday evening across NE OK and expand in coverage Thursday night into Friday. The stronger moisture return axis and corresponding higher instability will focus west of the local region, however a few strong storms could spread into NE OK Thurs night. Increasing lift ahead of the slow moving wave will support widespread showers and scattered storms across the entire forecast area Friday through Friday night. This will also likely be the time frame of heaviest rains.

Guidance has trended slower with the eastward progression of the wave and widespread rains and isolated storms persist through much of Saturday before gradually ending from west to east Saturday night into early Sunday. An additional swath of locally heavy rains may persist through Saturday especially from far E OK through NW AR. Temps Friday through Sunday will be reflection of the expected widespread rains and cloud cover with little diurnal change.

A very brief lull in precip chances is expected between the departing weekend wave and the next storm system which will begin to increase shower and storm chances by early next week. Timing and orientation of the early week wave remains uncertain amongst extended guidance and resultant precip chances remain spread across several time frames.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with increasing high clouds at MLC/FSM late. Light winds this morning will pick up from the southwest, with speeds likely to remain at or below 10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 81 49 78 58 / 0 0 20 60 FSM 80 48 81 58 / 0 0 0 40 MLC 81 50 81 59 / 0 0 20 50 BVO 80 42 76 53 / 0 0 20 70 FYV 75 44 76 51 / 0 0 0 40 BYV 74 47 75 52 / 0 0 0 40 MKO 80 48 79 57 / 0 0 20 50 MIO 75 46 75 54 / 0 0 0 60 F10 81 49 80 57 / 0 0 20 60 HHW 79 50 80 59 / 0 0 20 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.