textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Storm chances along with some threat for severe storms will persist through Saturday.

- Rain chances decrease and temperatures warm Sunday into the first part of next week. Afternoon heat index values may reach triple digits in a few spots.

- Unsettled weather returns later next week with daily shower and storm chances.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The upper flow over the region has flipped back to the more traditional W to SW flow and increased some, as an upper trough ejects northeast toward the central Rockies and a subtropical jet ahead of it extends into the south-central CONUS. It was an active day over north-central OK, with numerous storms developing off the dryline and producing big wind gusts and some hail. This activity has largely stayed out of NE OK thus far, though there is still some chance lingering waa activity slides across far NE OK close to the KS border through the night. There has been inconsistent signals presented in CAM data going into tomorrow morning. Some runs have suggested MCS development north of the KS border with activity eventually bending southeast to clip parts of the forecast area and leaving an outflow boundary. Later runs have backed off from this scenario. PoPs in the near term will use the raw 1 hr NBM PoP instead of PPI, backing away from likely PoPs in the northeast. Focus will then shift back to the dryline out west. Marginal westerly deep-layer shear in combination with late May instability will support some risk for severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The upper trough is expected to lift northeast across the central and northern Plains on Sunday. Rising mid-level heights across the forecast area will reduce the chances of any storms developing to our west and affecting our region. Afternoon highs will climb into the low 90s, and combined with the high humidity in place will yield heat indices near the triple digit mark in some spots. Upper heights continue to rise into Monday as the central CONUS ridge amplifies/broadens and another afternoon with highs in the low 90s and heat indices near the triple digits is expected. After another hot and humid day Tuesday with only low rain chances, temperatures and humidity will dial back a bit by Wednesday and Thursday as an expansive surface high centered over the Great Lakes back-doors some cooler and drier air into the forecast area from the east and northeast. The best rain/storm chances should stay west of the forecast area in this scenario. The central CONUS ridge breaks down during the latter part of the week, and rain/storm chances will ramp up by next Friday.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

With ongoing convection in northeast Oklahoma, will continue Prob30 groups for far northwest Arkansas into the overnight hours. Otherwise, scattered to broken high clouds are anticipated for the CWA into Saturday morning. There remains potential for a period of MVFR conditions developing late tonight/early Saturday morning in far northwest Arkansas and will continue with a tempo group for timing. For Saturday, scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast, while additional storm chances remain. The greater storm potential is across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Thus, have added Prob30 groups for general timing. By mid/late evening Saturday, mostly high clouds look to remain. Winds start out light/variable tonight, and become breezy out of the south Saturday before subsiding again Saturday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 72 92 73 93 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 72 93 72 94 / 10 10 0 0 MLC 75 93 74 94 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 69 92 71 93 / 40 0 0 10 FYV 71 89 72 91 / 20 10 0 10 BYV 68 87 68 89 / 30 20 10 20 MKO 72 91 72 92 / 20 10 0 0 MIO 70 91 71 91 / 40 10 10 10 F10 71 93 72 94 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 73 92 72 93 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.