textproduct: Tulsa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Showers and storms through tonight primarily north of I-40. Isolated severe storms across NE OK through evening.

- Rain chances and wide ranging temperatures continue Monday. Drier and warmer on Tuesday.

- An unsettled weather pattern continues mid to late week with multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards in the mid to late week period.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Expanding area of showers and storms currently spreading into NE OK will continue eastward through the afternoon and evening. A continued increase in coverage is expected with primarily north of Interstate 40 which generally aligns along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Isolated strong to severe storms will possible through the evening with large hail the primary concern as most storms will be in the more elevated post frontal airmass.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible Monday as the warm front begins to lift northward. Wide ranging temps again likely across the front zone. The warm sector expands area wide on Tuesday with unseasonably warm temperatures and breezy south winds expected. This pattern will allow a more meaningful increase in low level moisture area wide ahead of the next shortwave trough timed to influence the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Expectation is numerous to widespread showers and storms develop along and ahead of the associated cold front with at least an isolated severe weather risk especially south and east through the day Wednesday. A more widespread footprint of beneficial rainfall is likely.

The warm sector quickly resets and expands northward on Thursday ahead of the next wave which will increase shower and storm chances Thursday night through Friday night. A similar widespread swath of precip is expected along and ahead of the associated frontal passage with potential severe and locally heavy rainfall concerns. The pattern is likely to remain unsettled into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Shower and thunderstorm impacts continue primarily at the NE OK and far NW AR terminals with additional potential impacts expected to develop for MLC and FSM in the first few hours of the valid TAF period. Radar indicates attempts at thunderstorm development in the last half hour or so near I-40, close to the front, as depicted in the CAMs. Much of the forecast thunderstorm potential in E OK and also FSM is dependent on this development. XNA/ROG both have a mention from the outset due to existing activity in far NE OK continuing to show observed lightning. Even in the absence of precipitation or thunderstorm impacts, aviating conditions are expected to trend downward later this evening and into early Monday morning, with widespread MVFR and eventually, IFR ceilings likely to develop. A low chance of additional showers and thunderstorms during the daylight hours Monday exists, mainly for the NE OK and NW AR sites, but given existing uncertainty, will leave a mention out of the TAFs for now.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TUL 44 63 54 79 / 70 20 10 20 FSM 52 73 55 81 / 40 20 0 10 MLC 50 73 58 79 / 40 20 10 10 BVO 38 55 47 79 / 70 20 20 20 FYV 49 70 54 77 / 60 30 10 10 BYV 45 64 53 78 / 80 30 20 20 MKO 48 67 56 79 / 60 20 10 10 MIO 45 61 53 78 / 80 30 20 20 F10 48 66 57 80 / 60 20 10 10 HHW 56 73 57 79 / 20 10 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.