textproduct: Topeka

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

-A few more rounds of rain are expected through late Monday.

-The Flood Watch continues for some locations.

-Drier weather is expected midweek before rain chances increase again late in the workweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

This afternoon, a high amplitude trough remains over the western half of the CONUS. Isentropic ascent on the eastern side of the trough axis continues over the region. Radar trends have shown a small complex of storms in northern OK/southern KS, moving northeast within the southwesterly flow. SBCAPE has increased to between 500 and 1000 J/kg throughout central KS where 40 to 50 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear also exists. Storms could maintain strength as they move northeast and most CAMs show showers and storm entering the southern portion of the forecast area between 22Z and 00Z. A few stronger storms are possible mainly in central parts of the state, with lower chances eastward where instability is more limited.

Much of the late evening and nighttime hours tonight look dry before our next batch of widespread rainfall arrives Monday as the western troughs continues to dig eastward. Pwats remain above the 90th percentile of climatology and lift will be enhanced by a surface low passing over southeast and east-central KS through the day. Models agree on building rain north into the area by midday. Mid- level dry air will allow precip to taper off in eastern KS while a band of rain northwest of the surface low across northern and north-central KS continues late Monday and Monday night. Additional total QPF ranges from 1.0-1.5 inches in north-central KS and for locations near I-35 in east-central KS, with slightly lower amounts expected in between. The Flood Watch will continue for now south of I-70 where upwards of four inches have already fallen in some locations. However, we may consider removing a few counties based on trends this evening or tonight.

A break in precipitation is expected through midweek. Temperatures will hover near averages for early November with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees and lows in the upper 30s. While conditions stay dry here, another high amplitude trough will be developing out west. Long range models show the trough becoming a cutoff low over the Desert Southwest by Thursday. There seems to be better agreement with the 12Z runs in the evolution and track of the system, moving it over the central US early next weekend. NBM has increasing POPs through the end of the week, especially Friday and Friday night. Would imagine there will be some updates on timing and rainfall amounts as this timeframe approaches.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 554 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Ceilings will be MVFR to VFR for the early evening, then low stratus should move in during the mid and late evening hours dropping ceilings below IFR criteria, 600-800 feet through the remainder of the night. After 14Z MON, the low stratus should scatter out. There may be scattered showers developing early this evening and lasting through the night.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Record highest minimum temperature information for November 3

Topeka - Record: 59, set in 2008 Forecast: 61

Concordia - Record: 58, set in 2015 Forecast: 58

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ037-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ058-KSZ059.


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