textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Likely record heat in place today and Saturday - solid 90 to mid 90s on Saturday.

- Fire weather conditions will be critical across the area Saturday and possibly still elevated on Sunday. A Red Flag warning is in effect for Saturday.

- A modified cold front works into the area by Sunday morning helping to usher in a slightly cooler airmass through Monday.

- Mainly dry and warm weather continues through the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

The upper air pattern across the CONUS features a dominate ridge of high pressure and associated anti-cyclone over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico regions. Broad ridging is generally in place across the rest of the CONUS with a trough working through the New England region. Mean Westerlies are associated along the Canadian border region as a result of this pattern.

Weak surface troughs work from north to south this evening across the area before washing out into the morning tomorrow. As mixing occurs into mid to late morning Saturday the big hazard of concern quickly shifts from just heat today - record is already broken today at TOP and CNK - to both heat and fire weather conditions setting up area-wide tomorrow (see fire and climate sections below).

A modified cold front sags into the area for Sunday and lasts through Monday. Still mainly dry through next week but the ridge does appear to flatten slightly which should help to keep temperatures generally out of the record territory but still maintaining higher than normal temperatures for March into the 70s and a few 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the period. Light and variable winds overnight become more southwesterly by morning, eventually increasing to around 10-13 kts with gusts to 20 kts for the afternoon and evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Updated at 314 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Red Flag warning criteria appear to be on track for Saturday as the winds increase by late morning into midday from the south/southwest. Expect winds to be from 15-25 mph sustained with gusts up to around 40 mph. Minimum RH values into the afternoon fall to as low as 15 percent or perhaps lower in some areas as a deeply mixed BL develops and temperatures soar into the low to middle 90s. Expecting several hours of critical fire weather conditions as a result paired with sufficiently dry fuels still in place. Any fire that starts can be expected to burn efficiently and spread rapidly with erratic fire behavior and thus become difficult to contain. Simply DO NOT burn on Saturday and ensure any previous fires have been fully extinguished. Sunday may still see fire weather conditions conducive for critical fire conditions but confidence in the depth of mixing is not as high so the RH conditions may not become as dry. Winds will still be strong from the north which may be an offsetting factor for higher RH.

CLIMATE

Updated at 614 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

March 21 - Record High Temperature

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 91 (1907, 1916) 93 Concordia 97 (1907) 93

March Monthly Record High Topeka: 93 on March 22, 1907 and March 31, 1946 Concordia: 97 on March 21, 1907

In a more obscure climate stat - the forecast of 92 on Saturday would be an 82 degree swing from the low of 10 Monday morning. This would be tied for the 4th largest swing in temperatures within a one week (or less) period, and the only one week period on record to see a low of 15 or less and a high of 90 or more. The two most similar temperature swings also occurred in March. An 88 degree rise from -4 on March 8, 1967 to 84 on March 10, 1967 is the most extreme warming on record at TOP. More recently in 2009, the temperature rose from 9 degrees on March 2 to 86 on March 5.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Fire Weather Watch from this evening through Sunday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.