textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A persistent warming trend builds this week, rising into the upper 90s this weekend into early next week. Dewpoints in the 60s result in heat indices peaking in the low 100s.

- Precipitation chances are limited aside from modest probabilities (20-30%) of sub-severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. The overall pattern remains dry through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

No major changes in the forecast as the upper ridge dominates the region for the next several days. There remains little moderation in high temperatures through the work week, generally in the low 90s each afternoon. A retrograding upper low from the southeast CONUS is persistent among guidance in scattered convection developing over southeast Kansas on Wednesday evening. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out (10%) towards far eastern Kansas, but should otherwise remain dry. Cloud cover should increase by Thursday as an embedded, weak perturbation from the aforementioned retrograding low slides northwest. Scattered storms may develop into portions of eastern Kansas by the afternoon as weak inhibition erodes amid increasing SFC cape to near 2000 J/KG. Storms are expected to be sub-severe given the weak flow in place.

Ensembles are trending with the thermal ridge spreading eastward from Friday into the weekend. Southerly flow increases in the afternoon, enhancing low level warm advection below h85. Gusty south winds during the afternoon may mix some drier air to the sfc, but overall hovering close to Heat Advisory levels in the 100 to 104 range for max heat indices Sat-Mon. Relief from the heat may be in sight by the end of the forecast period as a longwave trough deepens over the eastern CONUS, weakening the ridge as it transitions to a slightly cooler and potentially more active northwest flow pattern by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist outside some ground fog at KTOP around and just before sunrise this morning. Will continue to monitor if KFOE will see any visibility restrictions, but confidence in fog seems best in the river valley at KTOP for now. The remainder of the TAF will see surface ridging dominate the period with light easterly winds and mostly clear skies outside some diurnal cu.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.