textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger this afternoon and again Friday and Saturday.

- Windy Friday and much colder Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

North to northwest upper flow to be the rule through the coming week. Cooler and drier air has worked in with nearly steady temperatures and dewpoints in the teens. Surface high pressure tonight brings light winds though mid and high cloud look to increase through the night. Have gone close to MOS for low temperatures thinking dry air and clear skies will allow for a quick drop in temps. Southerly low-level flow returns Thursday for somewhat warmer temps despite some cloud lingering.

A deep upper trough digs southeast into the Great Lakes Friday with a cold front passing through Thursday night. Deep northwest flow brings strong wind potential much of Friday. Ensembles continue to point to the strongest wind anomalies over the High Plains but locally there should be steep low-level lapse rates under considerable mid and high cloud. Low-level wind fields aren't particularly strong, but if mixing can be deep enough, winds may reach around Advisory levels, especially gusts. Have increased speeds toward the 90th-percentile values of NBM at this point. Can't completely rule out some trace precip Friday into Saturday in this regime, something similar to this morning, with any amounts very low and isolated with no impacts anticipated. Forecast high temperatures have dropped off further for Saturday as 850 mb temps reach around -20C, with current values now the coldest since mid-December, and breezy winds keeping wind chills only in the single digits and teens, then falling into the 0 to -10F range Sunday morning. The northwest flow brings modifying temperatures Sunday but still near to below normal into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 511 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with northerly wind becoming light and variable within the next few hours. Wind will eventually shift around the southwest by tomorrow morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A few periods of dry air and gusty winds will result in elevated fire danger this afternoon, Friday, and Saturday. RH values have fallen into the 30s and 40s early this afternoon with gusts around 30 MPH common. Winds will fall off around sunset with RH recovering rather quickly. Friday brings the strongest winds, with northwest winds sustained 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 40 to perhaps at times near 50 MPH. Details of mixing depths and persistence give some uncertainty in the strength of winds. Northwest winds continue into Saturday though are weaker, however RHs could approach 20% Saturday, while likely staying in the 30s to lower 40s Friday. Very High Rangeland Fire Danger is expected for at least portions of the area this afternoon, Friday, and Saturday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.