textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant conditions continue today with temperatures warming on Monday.

- Rain chances increase mainly during the evening and overnight hours Tuesday night through Thursday night.

- Hot and humid conditions return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Early this morning, Water vapor satellite imagery along with upper air analysis showed an upper trough across the Great Basin. A broad upper level ridge axis extended across the southwest US, northeast into central high Plains. An upper level trough extended from the eastern Great Lakes, south-southwest across the east central CONUS.

The 6Z surface map showed a surface cold front extending from northeast ND, southwest into southwest SD, then southwest into northern WY. Light southeast winds were noted across much of the CWA with temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

Today through Tuesday:

The H5 trough across the Great Basin will shift east-southeast across the High Plains Today. The surface front across SD and northern WY will slowly push southeast into northern NE. The H5 ridge axis will build east across KS and OK. Highs Today will reach to around 90 across much of the area, with lower to mid 90s across the western counties. Southerly wind will allow dewpoints to remain in the mid to upper 60s. Heat indices may be a couple degrees higher then the ambient temperature this afternoon.

Monday night through Tuesday, a lead H5 trough will lift northeast from the SD/NE border into the upper Midwest but the broad upper trough will continue across the central Rockies and northern Plains. Due to convection across NE, an outflow boundary may push the front farther south late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The NAM 12 and GFS forecast isolated showers and thunderstorms developing ahead and behind the surface front across north central KS. However, the stronger ascent ahead of the H5 trough will be across NE and points northeast. Most numerical models show the front slowly pushing southward across western KS and across the northern and western counties of the CWA. The lead H5 trough will lift northeast across IA on Tuesday, so there may not be much ascent for showers and thunderstorms ahead or north of the surface front.

Tuesday night through Thursday, a second H5 trough will dive southeast into the base of the broad H5 trough across the northern and central Plains. The southern edge of the H5 trough will dig southeast across much of KS. The DCVA ahead of the H5 trough will provide stronger ascent for scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of the frontal boundary late Tuesday night into Thursday morning. The H5 trough will dig southwest into the Mid MS River valley and the surface front will pass southeast of the CWA. The showers and storms will push southeast of the CWA during the late morning hours of Thursday. Skies may become partly cloudy Thursday afternoon.

There may be a few strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon along and southeast of the surface front. The front will push southeast across east central KS during the afternoon hours of Wednesday. The NAM12 and GFS forecast MLCAPE values of 1200-2200 J/kg and effective shear of 25 to 35 KTS ahead of the front. The primary hazard would be damaging wind gusts and quarter size hail if any storms did become severe.

Highs on Tuesday will be cooler northwest of the outflow boundary/front across the northwest counties, with highs in the lower 80s. Most of the area ahead of the front will see highs in the lower to mid 90s

Highs on Wednesday will be dependent on the location of the front. Behind the front across the northwest counties, high may only reach the mid to upper 70s, while southeast of the front across east central KS, highs will reach the lower 90s.

Thursday the front will be southeast of much of the CWA. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s, with mid to upper 80s across the southeast counties.

Thursday night through Friday night:

The H5 ridge will retrograde westward across the southwest US. The mid level flow will be northwesterly. The front will become stationary across southern KS and northern OK. Any perturbations embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft combined with isentropic lift may provide enough ascent for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will undergo frontolysis as it lift northward across the region Friday night.

Saturday through Monday:

The H5 ridge axis will build east across the Plains early next week. Look for a warming trend with upper 80s to lower 90s for high temperatures on Saturday. Sunday and Monday, afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 90s. Heat indices will increase to around 100 degrees along and south of I-70 next Sunday and Monday, with mid to upper 90 degree heat indices across the northern counties. If dewpoints are a few degrees higher across east central KS, during the afternoon hours of both Sunday and Monday, then heat indicies may reach around 105 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to persist. A weak boundary acting as a focus for elevated convection should remain well north of the terminals. Forecast soundings maintain some mixing in the boundary layer at TOP to limit potential for MIFG redeveloping.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.