textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog is once again possible Sunday morning.

- Above average temperatures return Sunday through Wednesday, followed by more seasonal values later next week. Dry weather is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows the local area in between multiple systems located in or around North America. One closed low is moving through the Northeast into New England, one shortwave is moving into southern Manitoba, one low is well off the coast of British Columbia, and another is cut off over the US-Mexico border near AZ/NM. This leaves us with weak flow overall. At the surface, high pressure is slow to shift east and holds fairly steady for now over the Central Plains and mid-Mississippi River Valley, while a trough axis can be noted across the Dakotas into low pressure in Canada. This system should work to push the sfc high south overnight tonight into Sunday. There may be some thin high clouds that move into northern KS after midnight, but this seems like it would only have minor impacts on temperatures and fog potential, if any. It should be noted that the NBM is on the warm side of guidance for low temperatures Sunday morning, so with light winds and only thin cirrus, it's possible crossover temperatures could be reached sooner if we cool down faster and lows are cooler than forecast. Soundings from the RRFS, RAP, and HRRR all show the inversion strengthening late tonight with shallow moisture at the surface in the hours leading up to sunrise. Visibility probs from the REFS indicate fog to be patchy in nature with overall low chances for dense fog at any particular location, but probs do get around or slightly above 50% briefly at a few spots. This would also point to patchy dense fog at times, similar to what occurred in north central KS this morning, except this could occur in low-lying spots anywhere in the forecast area.

Once any morning fog burns off, boundary layer mixing looks to be a little deeper Sunday compared to today, which should allow temperatures to be warmer Sunday as well, along with abundant sunshine. Increasing mid-level heights with low-amplitude ridging (as the cut-off low stays south) favors warm temperatures continuing through the first part of next week. Above average highs are forecast Sunday through Wednesday, reaching at least the 60s through that time with some 70s possible Monday and Tuesday. The cut-off low to our south weakens and becomes absorbed in the flow mid-week, bringing low rain chances southeast of our area into MO, but that's as close as we get to seeing any rain this upcoming week as it stands right now.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases later this week, particularly next weekend. A shortwave dives southeast across the Upper Midwest Wednesday and troughing deepens across roughly the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday, leading to an increasingly amplified pattern with a ridge to our west, placing us in meridional flow aloft. Ensemble solutions vary on the westward extent of the trough, leading to uncertainty on whether we'll see more influence from the trough or the ridge. The farther west the trough ends up, the stronger CAA we'll see behind the surface front. A more eastward solution would keep the deeper cold air to our north and east. In general, would expect a cooler trend late this week compared to the start of the week, but 25th-75th percentile high temperature ranges are nearly 20 degrees by Friday and Saturday, so the extent of the cooldown is in flux. The current forecast lines up with a more middle ground solution in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Main aviation impact to monitor this period is the potential for fog to redevelop overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Some patchy dense fog is possible, similar to this morning. Forecast soundings show a strengthening inversion closer to predawn hours, so felt that the signal was enough to insert mention, but it remains uncertain how low the vsby could get and for how long. Could start to see some patchy fog earlier with periods of IFR to LIFR vsby like MHK saw this morning, but went with the timing with best confidence with MVFR for now. Otherwise, expect light winds to turn from southwest to northwest with some passing high clouds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.