textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds from the northwest are likely to gust between 40 and 50 mph today, with some isolated 60 mph wind gusts possible. These winds could bring down tree limbs and power lines.

- Some very light snow remains possible this afternoon. Any snow could severely limit visibilities with sudden changes in snow squalls.

- The strong winds will create very high fire danger today.

- Very cold temperatures move in tonight. Wind chills Monday morning are expected to range between zero and 10 below zero.

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DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Late this morning an upper level trough was moving east across the Plains. The stronger DCVA and mid level frontogenesis was occurring across east northwest NE/ southeast/SD and points east across southern MI and northern IA.

The strong surface cold front that moved through the CWA during morning hours is now located across eastern OK, extending northeast across west central. then northeast into northwest IL.

Earlier this morning between 7 AM and 8 AM we had some 58-60 MPH wind gusts across portions of north central KS. Winds were initially strongest just behind the front but may pick up again this afternoon as the surface low deepens across eastern IA/ western IL, causing a tighter pressure gradient.

frontogenesis within the base of the H5 trough may cause some bands of snow, with the heavier snowfall across the northeast counties of the CWA later this afternoon but snow bands may develop across the remainder of the CWA. There may be up to 1 inch of snowfall by 00Z MON across the northeast counties where a winter weather advisory is in effect until 8 PM. If there is accumulation of snow on grassy surfaces, the strong northwest winds may cause enough blowing snow to limit visibilities below 1/4 mile at times.

Tonight, the H5 trough will shift east across the upper MS River Valley, with the H5 trough axis extending southeast into northeast TX. Stronger isentropic downglide will cause any light snow to shift east of the CWA. Skies will clear during the early morning hours and the stronger winds will gradually decrease to under 20 KTS with higher gusts. The gusty winds Tonight and falling temperatures will cause wind chills to drop down in the 1 to 6 below zero range. Across the northeast counties, minimum wind chills wil drop to near 10 below.

Monday, morning low temperatures will drop into the teens with some single digit readings along the NE border. A surface ridge of high pressure will shift south across the state Into OK and TX by Monday night. Highs will remain below freezing across northeast KS with mid to upper 30s across the remainder of the states. Monday night lows will drop into the teens. If you have any plants outdoor, they will need to be brought indoors this afternoon through Monday night.

Tuesday, the H5 trough will lift northeast across the eastern Great Lakes into New England. The mid level flow will veer more to the northwest. A lee trough will deepen across the central and southern high Plains. Surface winds will become southerly and high temperatures will warm a bit, with upper 40s to lower 50s east to mid to upper 50s west.

The extended forecast looks warm. An H5 ridge across the far southwest US will gradually shift east towards the southern highs Plains through the end of the week. Highs on Wednesday will warm into the 70s, with upper 70s and lower 80s Thursday. Friday and Saturday, we will see highs in the lower to mid 80s.

The ECMWF shows the CWA getting backed door by a weak front, while the GFS shows the surface ridge farther west with a stronger cold front. The ensemble spread is nearly 20 degrees, so we could see highs in the 60s on Sunday or lower 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A snow band is heading for the KTOP and KFOE terminals from 1750Z-1900Z. The snow band may drop visibilities down to 1SM as it passes through the terminals. After 19Z there may be occasional light snow through 2Z MON. The MVFR ceilings will gradually lift this evening to VFR and skies will clear by 6Z. The strong northwest winds at all terminals of 30 KTS with gusts of 45KTS will continue through the early evening hours before slowly diminishing under 25 KTS, with gusts under 35 KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Any ongoing fires Today will be difficult to control through Tonight with the strong gusty northwest winds.

Monday afternoon, the winds will gradually decrease through the afternoon hours. But gusts may be over 30 MPH in the early after noon hours but may subside under 25 MPH by late afternoon. Minimum RHs will be in the 15 to 25 percent range during the afternoon hours. The RFD has widespread very high fire danger across the CWA.

There may be an elevated fire danger by the end of the week. We will have to watch wind speeds and minimum RHs during the afternoon hours.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 11 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ058. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ011- KSZ012-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ040. Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for KSZ040-KSZ056- KSZ059.