textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog this morning, locally dense in the Kansas River valley and other low spots across northeast Kansas, gone by mid morning.

- Warm and dry through Tuesday with highs near 70, then a cold front Wednesday brings gusty northwest winds and highs in the 50s Thursday and Friday.

- Lows near freezing Friday and Saturday mornings before warming up again next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A broad ridge covers the central Plains tonight/early this morning between a closed low over New England and a northern stream low amplitude trough over Montana and the Dakotas. Beneath it, a surface ridge is centered over eastern Kansas with clear skies area-wide, and without last night's cirrus, radiational cooling has been more efficient. Temperatures are running several degrees below the HRRR, RAP, and RRFS, with crossover already met at Topeka and Manhattan, and road cameras confirm fog in the typical low lying areas but nothing widespread or dense at this time. Forecast soundings keep the saturated layer only tens of feet deep with winds just above it increasing toward sunrise, so the fog most likely remains patchy rather than widespread, and a light southerly breeze keeps areas around Emporia and southern portions of east central Kansas slightly mixed. Expect mainly patchy fog, locally dense in the Kansas River valley, burning off by mid morning.

Sunny and warm conditions in place today with highs in the low 70s under the broad upper level ridge. A weak boundary sags into northern Kansas Tuesday, holding north central highs in the mid 60s while the rest of the area stays near 70. Light winds and another night of strong radiational cooling could allow patchy fog to redevelop Tuesday morning if the boundary layer decouples, so trends in the 12Z guidance will need watching.

The cold front moves through early Wednesday with northwest winds gusting 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Behind it the trough settles over the East with the ridge holding in the West, leaving Kansas in northwest flow as H85 temperatures fall from near 11 C Wednesday to near 0 C by Friday. The question for Thursday and Friday is how fast the western ridge builds back into the Plains. The ECMWF and GEFS have come into better agreement holding the trough axis over the East, which keeps Kansas in northwest flow with the cold airmass in place through Friday. The GEPS builds the ridge east faster, lifting heights and turning winds southerly by Friday, which cuts the CAA short giving reason for the warm tail in the ensemble spread. With roughly 70 percent of members on the slower side, the forecast leans on the NBM median with highs in the low to mid 50s Thursday and around 50 Friday. Lows near 30 Friday and Saturday mornings bring possible frost and a freeze to much of the area after a growing season that has run long this fall without a hard freeze.

Ridging builds back over the Plains next weekend with highs climbing through the 60s and dry weather holding through the period. Beyond that, some solutions advertise a western trough that would bring the first rain chances back early the following week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Shallow saturation has developed in the low lying areas as a result of a decoupled boundary layer under clear skies and efficient radiational cooling, primarily at TOP in the Kansas River valley, where IFR to LIFR conditions in fog are expected through sunrise until about 14Z. FOE and MHK have stayed VFR and likely continue that way, since forecast soundings there suggest the saturated layer is much shallower, with winds just off the surface inhibiting further depth of saturation at both locations. Conditions improve quickly to VFR at TOP once heating mixes out the shallow layer, with light south winds increasing to around 10 kt by afternoon under clear skies.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.