textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-A stretch of above average temperatures starts today.

-A series of systems will move through the area into next week, with most coming through dry.

-The next chance for light QPF will be next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Temperatures are back in the 50s and low 60s today, and should remain above average for most, if not all, of this forecast period. Today, a surface trough is moving through northeast KS. Winds are shifting from the west-southwest to the west- northwest. Otherwise, today's trough will not have much impact on current conditions. Aloft, an amplified pattern exists across the country. The forecast area is under northwest flow, however, a large ridge over the western CONUS will continue to expand eastward and temps continue to warm in the lower levels.

A cold front will move through tomorrow morning, bringing in a slightly cooler air mass. Highs should still manage to reach the 50s near and south of I-70, while topping out in the upper 40s north. High pressure from Canada will expand southward into KS on Friday and early Saturday, keeping conditions on the cooler side compared to the rest of the forecast. Strong southerly flow looks to return briefly Saturday afternoon. Temps respond by warming back to near 60 degrees Sunday as the next surface trough quickly traverses the area. Monday looks to be the warmest day, likely warming to near 70 degrees -- just shy of record highs.

The pattern remains fairly active in terms of systems quickly moving across the CONUS into early next week. Long range models seem to agree fairly well on low pressure and a cold front coming through on Tuesday. The highest probabilities for precipitation are currently south of the area, but have maintained a 30 to 40% chance for light rain as the system moves through. Expected QPF remains low with LREF mean values at less than one tenth of an inch.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Wind is the main aviation hazard for this round of TAFs. Sfc winds shift to the west-northwest early this period and might gust to 20-25 kts this afternoon. LLWS becomes a concern early Friday for a few hours, likely starting around 11Z as northerly winds increase around 1000 ft AGL. Sfc winds then increase again after sunrise and become gusty by late morning.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.