textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms become likely (60-80% chance) in east central KS this evening, mainly along and south of I-35. Some of these could pose a risk for primarily hail and wind, then flooding overnight.

- Thursday brings widespread elevated fire danger to the area.

- Temperatures turn cooler Wednesday, then trend warmer to the end of the week, followed by a brief return to winter early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Northern stream trough has developed across the Rockies today while a closed low slowly moves across northern Mexico. At the surface, low pressure has been slowly moving across the forecast area. The cold front appears to be about halfway across as of 19z, along a line from Salina to Hiawatha, just barely west of MHK. Gusty south winds have helped temperatures surge into the low to mid 80s ahead of the front, while locations behind it have seen much lighter winds and are stuck in the 50s and 60s.

Focus has been on severe thunderstorms potential later today. CAMs seem to be in decently good agreement on storms firing along the front near the I-35 corridor, with some differences in timing. The NAM Nest has the earliest initiation time around 00z, with some others holding off until closer to 02-03z. SBCAPE ahead of the front is forecast to be 2000-3000 J/kg with 40-50 kts of effective shear, plenty sufficient for severe storms. If development occurs on the early side of the guidance, that would provide a very narrow window for surface-based storms. For this reason, can't entirely rule out the possibility of a tornado with the initial development of storms along the front, but that window of opportunity would end quickly once they interact with each other and congeal into a line. Additionally, the longer storms hold off this evening past sunset, the more we lose our instability at the surface with storms more likely becoming elevated. There is still 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with in that more probable scenario. This would present more of a hail and wind threat at the onset. Eventually, with shear being oriented parallel to the front, any storm hazards would transition more to a flood concern as we get into the overnight hours as storms backbuild potentially over some of the same places that recently received more rainfall. Some post-frontal storms may move through overnight, particularly south of I-70, although these would have less instability and should be mostly beneficial rain.

All rain is progged move east by mid-morning with a much cooler and drier air mass in place behind the front. Highs are forecast in the 50s with breezy northwest winds before high pressure fully moves in Wednesday evening. That sfc high quickly gets pushed south into Thursday with a clipper system moving across the Northern Plains. This helps to tighten the pressure gradient and creates a windy day as low-level flow returns to the southwest. This will be the day to watch for elevated fire concerns area-wide with winds gusting to 30- 40mph along with temperatures trending warmer amid a dry air mass.

Dry weather continues into the first part of the weekend along with warming temperatures. A more potent wave dives southeast across the central part of the country, which may bring some rain/snow to the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. PoPs have increased some with this system and the probabilities for snow accumulation look low at this time, but will need to continue to monitor. At the very least, more winter-like temperatures look to make a brief return before temperatures moderate by mid-week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conditions to start before showers and storms move towards terminals this evening and become more likely overnight. The initial round of showers/storms will largely be focused southeast of terminals, although KTOP/KFOE look to be clipped by some of this activity. More widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms develop between 07-09z, shifting east into Wednesday morning. MVFR cigs are likely Wednesday morning before VFR conditions return by early afternoon. Winds become gusty from the north-northwest overnight and remain so through the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Fire headlines may be needed Thursday in some portion of the area with windy conditions likely gusting to 30-40mph. RH values are still in flux, leading to some uncertainty in where exactly we could get to 20% or lower, but this appears most favored in parts of north central and northeast KS. East central KS areas could possibly remain above 30%, but it still doesn't look like a good day for burning with the winds in place. Would expect to see very high rangeland fire danger area-wide at the very least at this point.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.