textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered severe storms are expected to develop late this afternoon into the evening hours for portions of north central and northern Kansas.

- Widespread severe storms are still on track to develop late Monday afternoon across central Kansas, shifting into northeast and east central Kansas during the evening and overnight hours. All severe threats are possible.

- After below normal temperatures and dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, shower and storm chances return Thursday-Saturday to the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Mid level shortwave trough continues to exit northward into Nebraska and Iowa this morning, while residual showers linger behind the weakening overnight MCS. Showers dissipate before sunrise with gradually clearing skies by mid afternoon today. Low level troughing ejects from southeast CO into western KS later this morning, inducing a deepening pressure gradient in the low levels from central to portions of northeast Kansas where south winds reach advisory levels from 20 to 30 mph sustained. Focus shifts to storm development by late afternoon as the front sets up west of the forecast area. An embedded vort max is progged to enter the region by late afternoon as the warm and humid conditions at the sfc bolster instability in excess of 4000 J/KG while the capping inversion diminishes. Short term models are coming into better agreement with the isolated convection developing within the warm sector after 5 PM, expanding into a linear segment as it tracks east over far northern Kansas. Decent curvature is observed in the low levels on forecast hodographs, due to the increasing effective bulk shear, particularly as the low level jet increases in the evening. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are the initial concerns, followed by the possibility for a few tornadoes as the low level jet strengthens by early evening. If storms backbuild across portions of north central Kansas once again, localized flooding is possible given the few inches of rainfall that occurred the previous evening.

The higher, more widespread threat for severe storms remains on track for Monday afternoon and evening. Morning showers and storms are anticipated to clear eastern Kansas by mid morning, allowing the atmosphere to recover for redevelopment by late afternoon. Forecast instability ranges from 3500-5000 J/KG within the warm sector, just ahead of the sfc low axis, cold front and dryline intersection. As the mid level speed max ejects from CO into the plains, convection becomes very likely from north central to central Kansas. Soundings in this area exhibit minimal inhibition by this time and steep mid level lapse rates, supportive of very large hail (greater than 2 inches) given the expansive amount of MLCAPE and damaging winds. Main question remains on the timing of initation and how quickly discrete supercells will merge into a line as the cold front shifts southeast through the forecast area. This may mitigate the strong, long track tornado threat, albeit the support of the low level jet elongates the hodographs and increases low level SRH up to 300 m2/s2. Overall, if storms are able to remain discrete in the early evening, the threat for strong tornadoes increases for much of northeast Kansas. Otherwise, the damaging wind threat and weaker tornadoes become a concern as a strong MCS forms. Increasing PWAT values above 1.5 inches and backbuilding of storms behind the sfc front is indicative of flash flooding potential, especially where antecedent rainfall has occurred over north central Kansas. Confidence is not high enough for a flood watch headline, however this may change if we see additional heavy rain this evening.

Severe storms should exit with the front by Tuesday morning, returning dry and well below normal temperatures to the region Tuesday afternoon. Highs are progged to be around 25 degrees cooler than the last few days in the upper 60s. Broad troughing to the west brings additional waves into the region by Thursday as dewpoints in the 60s return to the region. Chances are reflective of the showers with lesser probs for thunder given the weak instability observed by the long term guidance. While much uncertainty in timing and location is present late week into next weekend, there is a signal from the midlevel mean flow for the active weather pattern to persist.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR at terminals, focusing on the cluster of severe TSRA occurring north and west of terminals to start the forecast period. Latest guidance continues to exhibit weakening trends with these storms and should remain north of sites through 12Z, however will monitor KMHK as they may be close to observing VCTS. Gusty south winds in upwards of 40 kts return aft 13Z as residual clouds near 3 kft clear out in the afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Record High Temperature

Sunday May 17 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 92 (1907) 90 Concordia 96 (1996) 97

Monday May 18 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 94 (1975) 91 Concordia 94 (1967, 1988) 89

Record Warm Low Temperature

Sunday May 17 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 73 (1996) 69 Concordia 68 (1902, 1906) 67

Monday May 18 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 71 (1911) 70 Concordia 72 (1911) 64

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ058.