textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front to move through today bringing cold air back for MLK Jr. Day.

- Near-normal temperatures return by Tuesday and through the work week.

- Precipitation chances increase slightly by next weekend as cold air returns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Northwesterly upper level flow remains in place over the central US as southerly low level flow has returned to eastern Kansas following the passage of the surface ridge. Temperatures are beginning to warm a touch under the southerly regime, but still are very cold - upper single digits and low teens. Over the day today, an appreciable warm- up will be realized under WAA and diurnal mixing with temperatures reaching the low 40s by the early afternoon. The warmth is not to last long as a compact shortwave embedded within the northwesterly flow moves out of Nebraska and pushes a surface cold front across the area around mid-day. The initial airmass behind the wind shift does not differ too much with the main surge of cold, arctic air coming later in the evening. Some light snow showers and flurries may be seen in the late afternoon and early evening hours as forecast soundings depict some shallow saturation and lift within the DGZ. Cannot rule out some organized snow bursts moving south out of NE and maintaining themselves as they move into northern KS around sunset. Overall set up for this seems to stem from steep BL lapse rates and a band of 925-850mb frontogenesis, but overall chances remains low (<20%). Surface ridging moves into north-central Kansas by early Monday morning plummeting temperatures back into the teens and single digits (central KS to northeastern KS respectively). Given the cold start to the day Monday, afternoon temperatures will not likely warm higher than the 20s.

The remainder of the week starting Tuesday will be noted with temperatures getting back towards normal with mostly dry conditions. Drastic changes do not seem to come until the weekend as northwesterly flow turns more zonal and ushers in some shortwaves from the west. There is a decent agreement in long-range deterministic guidance with a very cold shot of air moving into the region Saturday - pushing highs back into the 20s and lows into the single digits - but there still remains a wide variety of uncertainty with QPF generated with the synoptic pattern. That said, deviating in the NBM's 15-20% PoPs for Saturday does not seem necessary at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 508 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Wind driven TAFs will be the main story today in addition to a wind shift moving across the terminals mid-day today (noon). Winds will remain gusty, upwards of 30 mph at times before decreasing around sunset this evening. North/northwesterly winds will keep the BL fairly mixed overnight tonight before winds become lighter near the end of the TAF as surface ridging builds in from the north.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.