textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light showers or sprinkles possible tonight into Friday. A few thunderstorms will possible this afternoon southeast of I-35. - better rain chances (40-70%) Saturday night

- A warming trend with above normal temperatures by the middle and end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery showed a positive tilt upper level trough embedded within the northwest mid level flow from IA, extending southwest across KS. A southern stream upper low was located across northern Mexico.

The 12 AM surface map showed showed a surface cold front extend from northern IL, west-southwest across southern NE, then southwest across northwest KS and northeast CO. Temperatures were in the mid 50s across the CWA with some dry air in place. Dewpoints across the northern counties of the CWA were in the lower 30s, and dewpoints south of I-70 were in the lower to mid 40s.

Today through Tonight:

The H5 trough will shift east across eastern KS today. There may be enough ascent for some sprinkles with a possible isolated showers. The front should move southeast across Topeka around Noon. If better residual moisture can return ahead of the front across the southeast counties of the CWA this afternoon there may be a better chance for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorm along and southeast of the KS turnpike. MLCAPES will remain below 1000 J/KG across the far southeast counties of the CWA. Given 40 KTS of effective shear, there maybe a few strong storms with small hail and gusty winds ahead of the front this afternoon across the southeast counties of the CWA. The better threat for severe thunderstorms will be across southeast KS and southwest MO. However, if the front moves faster southeast of the CWA, then the potential for stronger storms will shift southeast of the CWA.

Saturday through Sunday:

The numerical models and ensembles are in good agreement with showing a more amplified H5 digging southeast across the central Plains late Saturday into Saturday night. There will be residual moisture return by Saturday afternoon and Saturday night for a higher chance for showers and thunderstorms. Though the potential for severe thunderstorms should remain southwest and south of the CWA. A cold front will push southeast across the area Saturday night. A few showers and storms may form during the late afternoon hours across north central KS but the greater chance for showers and storms will be Saturday night into the early morning hours of Sunday as DCVA ahead of the H5 trough combined with convergence along the surface front. There may be a few lingering showers Sunday morning but skies wil clear by afternoon. Highs Saturday ahead of the front will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs Sunday behind the front will only reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

Sunday night through Friday:

The extended range models are in good agreement with an amplifying broad H5 ridge across the west-central US, with the H5 ridge moving east across the Plains by mid week. The GFS keeps the H5 ridge axis a bit farther west then the ECMWF and Canadian models. The H5 ridge will begin to dampen late next week, which may allow mid-level perturbations to lift northeast across the Plains and bring a chance for showers and storms Thursday into Friday. Expect a warming trend next week, with upper 70s and lower 80s Monday, mid to upper 80s Tuesday, and Wednesday, and upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

There may be some sprinkles or isolated showers around the terminals Today. A SW Low-level jet of 45 KTS 1500 feet off the surface will keep low-level wind shear across the terminals through 15Z. A cold front will move southeast across MHK after 18Z, and then move across KTOP and KFOE near 00Z SAT. West-southwest winds ahead of the front switching to the north-norheas behind the front. Wind speeds will be 11 KTS or less.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.