textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for sprinkles and flurries tonight. Greater chance for snow showers Friday.

- Strong northwest winds Friday with gusts of 40 to 45 MPH common.

- Elevated fire weather conditions for portions of north-central and east-central Kansas Friday and Saturday.

- High temperatures below freezing Saturday and Martin Luther King Jr Day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Brief upper ridging overhead today though water vapor shows the next wave digging south into the northern Plains. The associated cold front moves though eastern Kansas tonight with a weak mid-level wave following which will may have enough saturation for some trace precipitation, with sprinkles and flurries possible as temperatures fall.

More impactful conditions develop Friday as a second wave deepens the upper low to the northeast. Cold temps aloft bring moderate mixing depths with winds near the top of the mixed layer around 45 knots. Moisture also increases for considerable cloud and potential precipitation with some indications of very weak instability into cloud in the dendritic growth zone. Models vary on precipitation coverage and timing but expect at least a few snow showers to form in the afternoon into early evening when saturation is best. These are most likely in northeast Kansas in the better moisture. Given strong winds, visibilities would be reduced quickly in heavier showers and squall potential will need to be watched, however cloud heights being several thousand feet AGL should also limit the concern. With wind fields below the top of the mixing height less than typical in windy set-ups, the clouds should help keep widespread strong winds in check, but some areas, more likely in central Kansas, could see wind gusts around 45 MPH at times. Mixing remains abnormally strong into the night so some spotty gusts could take place but should be much weaker.

Another weak upper wave rotates through the area Saturday though moisture is more limited in quality and depth. Have kept any precip mention out at this point. Gusty northwest winds, though weaker than Friday, keep afternoon wind chills below 10F for many with highs in the upper teens and 20s. Sunday brings modified air on west- southwest winds but another shot of cold air comes late in the day for a colder MLK Jr Day. Wind chills Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night will fall to around 0 for most.

Flow becomes more zonal much of next week which should provider for temperatures close to normal with no appreciable precipitation chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. A cold front will move through early tomorrow morning. Some light sprinkles or flurries are possible, but confidence in any precipitation impacting the terminals is low. Wind may briefly be gusty just along the front, but should quickly subside to less than 10 knots after the front passes. A secondary front moves through tomorrow afternoon. Breezy northwesterly wind is expected prior to and after the passing of this front. Some scattered snow showers are possible during the afternoon and early evening. Due to the scattered nature of precip, confidence is too low to include a prevailing group at this time, but can't rule out a brief snow shower reducing visibility at a terminal during the afternoon and early evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Increased precipitation chances and associated cloud bring more uncertainty on fire weather specifics for Friday. Temperatures have trended slightly cooler which keeps humidity levels higher. This is further limiting fire weather concerns, keeping Very High rangeland fire danger relegated to far western and southern locations where RHs fall to around 35%. Similar western and southern locations look to again see Very High fire danger win weaker winds but slightly lower RH Saturday though specifics could easily change given considerable model spread in low-level temperature and dewpoint fields. Persistent gusty northwest winds Friday through Friday night and into Saturday will make any fire challenging. RH values in the 20s and 30s are anticipated Sunday and Monday afternoons though winds should be weaker.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.