textproduct: Topeka

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Intermittent showers and thunderstorms through Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall can't be ruled out though severe weather potential is quite low.

- Not as hot today through Friday. Cooler yet this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Precipitation more robust than earlier anticipated with outflow and MCV from convection to the northwest combining with warm-air advection ahead of these features. Some brief strong updrafts have occurred but limited instability and modest focusing mechanisms keeping impacts low. This activity should slowly push off this morning with some recovery of temperatures in the afternoon though passage of a weak front should keep heat indicies below Advisory level.

Upper flow becomes weak northwesterly around the weaker upper high to the southwest bringing occasional chances for high-based showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as models keep the mid- levels moist. The main windows for this appear to be late tonight into Wednesday morning then again Wednesday night into early Thursday. Continuity remains in a shortwave trough diving southeast across the mid-Mississippi Valley late Thursday into Friday for mid- range precip chances locally. Instability and shear still look weak but precipitable water values look to be around 2 inches into late Wednesday and bump up a bit more into Thursday for some concern for locally heavy rainfall, but again lacking any focusing mechanism this potential is low. More northerly upper flow takes hold this weekend with modified high pressure bringing in drier and cooler air for benign conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered convection continues to form ahead near and ahead of an upper wave and outflow boundary moving east-southeast from northwest Kansas. Have moved up timing of TSRA based on this but still expect some chance for showers and thunderstorms to around 18Z until the wave exits. Main impact looks to be visibilities, and could reach IFR though MVFR seems more likely. Winds become more easterly as a front moves through.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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