textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

- Dry weather returns this weekend with above average temperatures into early next week.

MESOSCALE

Issued at 453 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Convection out ahead of the frontal boundary has been slow to get going with limited low level convergence and the better dynamics from the shortwave still out across the Rockies. The 18Z RAOB showed a little CIN still over the warm sector but temps have not warmed much since the balloon launch thanks to a thick stratus deck. If storms do not get going ahead of the front in the next hour or two, we may only get what is developing on the cold front. And forecast soundings show it is going to be very difficult for a right mover to come off the boundary with the cold front continually undercutting the updrafts. There remains a conditional risk for severe storms with hail, wind and tornadoes given good instability and deep layer shear around 50KT. But that is entirely dependent on storm development ahead of the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Short term forecast...

Today through Sunday:

Today through Tonight, an upper Trough across western CO and the Four Corners region will shear apart with the northern branch lifting northeast into NE Tonight and phasing with an H5 trough moving east across the northern Plains and southern Canada. The southern section of the H5 trough will amplify and retrograde southwest into northwest Mexico.

The elevated thunderstorms may continue across the southeast counties into the afternoon hours. There was some clearing across the central counties of the CWA but the stratus is racing back northwest, so most areas will become cloudy again by late this morning.

This afternoon, if the stratus holds through the afternoon hours, then it will be unlikely that discrete supercells develop within the warm sector. However, if there is deep enough mixing there could be areas that clear this afternoon, especially up along the NE border. The latest HRRR does show thunderstorms developing across northern Riley, Washington, and Marshall Counties by 20Z. If surface based supercells develop, the curved hodographs would result in streamwise horizontal vorticity in the lowest 2 KM. The MLCAPE could increase to 1000-1500 J/KG. So, there may be a window for discrete supercell across central and eastern counties of the CWA. Most CAM forecast soundings do not show steep low-level lapse rates and if the clouds hold, the storms that develop in the warm sector, maybe much weaker and slightly elevated updrafts. If discrete surface based supercells do develop then expect 2 inch or greater hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The best timing for any discrete supercells within the warm sector will be 3 PM through 7 PM.

A surface cold front will be moving into north central KS later this afternoon and scattered storms will develop then congeal into a line of storms. There will be a slight component of 0-3KM flow, 20 KTS, perpendicular to the line, which could cause rear inflow jets to develop within the line, and may be a few mesovortex weak and brief tornadoes but the environment is not very conducive for mesovortex tornadoes to develop. Therefore the main hazard would be localized 60 to 70 MPH wind gusts. If the cold pool along the line helps to surge the front faster to the southeast, then the line of storms may become undercut by outflow. But new updrafts should develop ahead of the outflow, and with the stronger southwesterly 50 kts winds at 700mb, momentum transfer in the storm's downdraft along the line could cause some isolated 60 MPH wind gusts along the line as it moves east across northeast and east central KS this evening.

Saturday, expect cooler temperatures behind the surface front. Saturday highs will be in the lower to mid 50s with clearing skies.

Long term forecast...

Sunday through Friday:

Sunday through Tuesday, the mid level flow will become more zonal and southerly winds will help highs to warm into the mid to upper 60s Sunday, lower to mid 70s Monday and Tuesdays. An H5 trough will move east across the northern and central Plains on Tuesday, which will bring a surface front southeast across the CWA on Tuesday. There may be a chance for showers and storms along the front Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. However, the southern stream H5 trough over the southwest US looks to move east across TX and remain south of the CWA.

Wednesday, will be cooler behind the front, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Thursday and Friday, highs will warm back into the 60s. A stronger front will push southeast across the CWA Friday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 453 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Timing storms at the terminals is the main challenge and should be tied closely with the FROPA. MVFR stratus ahead of the front is likely to stick around with a brief period of IFR CIGS post frontal based on upstream obs. Conditions should improve around midday Saturday with northwest winds advecting dry air and bringing VFR conditions.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.