textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue to warm into the upper 90s, near 100 degrees this weekend into early next week. Dangerous heat is of concern as heat indices up to 105 are probable over east central Kansas.

- Widely scattered sub-severe storms are expected this afternoon (20-40%), mainly over portions of east central and far northern Kansas. Brief downpours and lightning are the main hazards.

- A weak frontal boundary moves into the region next week, signaling increased precipitation chances. Lack of deep moisture however lends to low confidence at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Similar upper air pattern in place this afternoon with the cutoff low bringing very heavy rainfall to south Texas while the ridge dominates much of the CONUS region. Subtle embedded perturbations are noted lifting north and west towards northeast Kansas, providing enough lift amid no inhibition for widely scattered storms to develop between 2 and 8 PM this evening. Other than the threat for lightning and brief, heavy downpours, severe storms are not anticipated given the weak wind shear in place. Additional widely scattered storms may redevelop once again Friday, however latest guidance trends focus the shortwave trough over southern Kansas during peak heating. Lingering cloud cover throughout the day Friday may also limit temperatures to near 90 degrees.

Warming temperatures become the primary hazard of the forecast as the upper ridge currently over the Rockies shifts eastward this weekend. Warm low level advection increases as H85 temps are consistent among models from 23-26C, mixing down to the sfc by late afternoon. There may be little relief overnight as forecast lows are in the 70s. Dewpoints are more uncertain with a high spread noted in the NBM 25th-75th percentiles. If we mix down additional drier air, our temperatures will be warmer whereas higher dewpoints also result in higher heat indices. Based on the current setup as the ridge sticks around through early next week, we may need to consider heat headlines for possibly Sunday, but especially on Monday where peak heat indices reach around 105 in portions of east central Kansas.

Upper trough digs into the northeast CONUS on Tuesday, shunting the ridge southward and transitioning flow aloft to the northwest. A weak frontal boundary is progged to sink south into the region in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe with operational models developing low QPF along the front. Model ensembles however are trending drier as 6 hr QPF probabilities of at least 0.01 or 20% or less. Even though the moisture availability is scarce, mostly cloudy skies and cooler, north winds drop highs back to near normal values in the low 90s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR at terminals as diurnal cumulus builds into the afternoon. Kept the mention of PROB30 for widely scattered TSRA at KTOP/KFOE based on latest trends in obs and short term guidance. Winds may vary in the afternoon with the nearby storms, but should overall be below 10 kts.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.