textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Another shot of arctic air is forecast to keep temperatures below freezing today and Saturday.

- Some light snow is possible (15-30% chance) across north central Kansas through midday today. Amounts should be light.

- A second chance of snow (20-50%) is forecast for Saturday night. Again any snow amounts look to be light.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

08Z water vapor imagery showed a long wave upper trough over the eastern two thirds of North America with ridging over the Great Basin. This placed the forecast area under northwest flow. Surface obs placed a 1045MB high north of MN with ridging extending all the way to the gulf coast.

Models are in pretty good agreement in the pattern through the weekend and the ensembles/NBM show small spread in the potential outcomes. It looks like the weather will be driven mainly by a couple shortwaves that pass overhead today and again Saturday night as another arctic high settles into the central plains. The coldest temperatures with this high are expected to be Saturday morning with readings below zero. But as temperatures bottom out, winds are forecast to become light with the center of the surface ridge passing through the area. Because of this wind chills are not much colder than the forecast temps and remain marginal for a cold weather advisory. Have opted to hold off on any headline at this time.

Models have some organized mid level frontogenesis with the shortwave this morning across central KS. This may allow for a little more persistent light snow through midday across the western half of the forecast area. Have a mention of flurries for the rest of the area with forecast soundings show some steep low level lapse rates. But there is not a lot of vertical motion within the cloud across the eastern parts of the forecast area, so confidence is low that measurable snow will develop. The snow chances are forecast to move south of the area by mid afternoon as cold and dry air advection increases with the arctic surface ridge. The second shortwave is forecast to move through with limited moisture Saturday night. Forecast soundings show good saturation with some mid level frontogenesis with this wave. But there is little moisture advection ahead of the wave. So Any snow continues to look light. Since there is a reasonable consensus in the pattern and a signal for light QPF have kept the 30-50 percent chance POPs from the NBM across the northern counties.

As is typical with the numerical models, spreads start to increase by next week. Although the overall pattern appears to be similar from the various solutions with cluster analysis of the 12Z ensembles mainly showing differences in the amplitude of the shortwave features. With this in mind, have not wavered from the NBM. The one thing to note from the 00Z operational models is they increase cold air advection during the day Tuesday as a surface low passes south of the area. This suggest highs could be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what the NBM has. Confidence in the slight chance POPs on Tuesday and Tuesday night are low as well. Only a few of the 12Z ensembles members develop any QPF with about 90% of the members keeping the forecast dry. The 00Z ECMWF, which is the most robust with QPF, is also further south with the surface wave than other 00Z operational runs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 450 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

CIGs could be tricky today as models currently think there should be some MVFR CIGs now. Given current VFR conditions immediately upstream, will error on the optimistic side of 3KFT at TOP and FOE and only show MVFR conditions for a five hour window at MHK when CAMs hint at some light snow moving through. A stratocu deck could linger past 00Z based on NAM/RAP forecast soundings. But dry air advection is forecast to take over and eventually clear skies out.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.