textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Intermittent showers and thunderstorms through Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall can't be ruled out though severe weather potential is quite low, rising a bit Thursday night.
- Not as hot today through Friday. Cooler yet this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Precipitation more robust than earlier anticipated with outflow and MCV from convection to the northwest combining with warm-air advection ahead of these features. Some brief strong updrafts have occurred but limited instability and modest focusing mechanisms keeping impacts low. This activity should slowly push off this morning with some recovery of temperatures in the afternoon though passage of a weak front should keep heat indicies below Advisory level.
Upper flow becomes weak northwesterly around the weaker upper high to the southwest bringing occasional chances for high-based showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as models keep the mid- levels moist. The main windows for this appear to be late tonight into Wednesday morning then again Wednesday night into early Thursday. Continuity remains in a shortwave trough diving southeast across the mid-Mississippi Valley late Thursday into Friday for mid- range precip chances locally. Instability and shear still look weak but precipitable water values look to be around 2 inches into late Wednesday and bump up a bit more into Thursday for some concern for locally heavy rainfall, but again lacking any focusing mechanism this potential is low. More northerly upper flow takes hold this weekend with modified high pressure bringing in drier and cooler air for benign conditions.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Rain is coming to an end this morning, but another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible tonight. There may be a narrow band of showers and storms that develops and the location/timing of this band is uncertain enough that only a PROB30 was mentioned in the TAF for the most likely timeframe for storms tonight.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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