textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Record warm temperatures today then cooler but still above normal through the coming weekend.

- Very high rangeland fire danger values today.

- Rain chances remain late in the forecast but uncertainty continues to be high.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Very warm temperatures Sunday will be even warmer today as weak to moderate low-level warm-air advection takes place in advance of a cold front moving southeast across the northern Plains. ESAT values continue to climb in 850 mb temperatures of 99-plus percent of climatological values with NBM chances for records of at least 92 percent. Have sided with above median temperature guidance given recent performance and decent southwest winds and dry air -- see Fire Weather section below for more details on this. Cold front passes tonight and brings a modified airmass in for the mid-week with highs still in the 50s and not far from this into the coming weekend.

Models coming into somewhat better agreement in handling of upstream energy earlier progged to make its way east into the Plains. A weak wave may make its way just north of the area for some chance for rain Thursday/Thursday night, but the primary wave now looks to move across the Southern Plains Friday night into Saturday night. There is however considerable uncertainty in handling of this wave and how much if any precipitation will reach this far north. NBM PoPs seem a bit high in this regime but confidence remains moderate to high that any that falls would be rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 509 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are highly likely. South-southwest winds become established around 17Z as mixing increases with some minor gusts at times. Cold front switches winds late in the forecast and could see some gusts with this too. Will need to monitor low- level winds for potential wind shear ahead of the front in the 02Z-09Z window.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Not much has changed in the fire weather forecast for today. Mixing depths will increase enough for RH values to drop into the 18-25 percent range this afternoon but likely not very long with southwest winds gusting to near 25 MPH again at times and not widespread. Brief and spotty Red Flag conditions may materialize, mainly over the Flint Hills, but Very High Rangeland Fire Danger is anticipated area-wide. Winds will shift to the north behind a cold front from late this evening to the pre-dawn hours as a cold front swings south-southeast through the region.

CLIMATE

Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Record High Temperatures for Today:

Forecast High Record (Year) Topeka 77 72 (1932) Concordia 77 70 (1976, 1996)

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.