textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms move across the area tonight. Locally damaging wind gusts and heavy rain possible, mainly towards north-central KS.

- Storm chances continue Thursday and Friday, though details of each round will be dependent on how prior convection evolves.

- Temperatures generally stay near average through the weekend, followed by a warming trend next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Another quiet morning across eastern KS, but lee troughing and convection over the central High Plains are signs of change on the way. Surface ridging near the KS/MO will shift away today as the cut- off upper low over the Ozarks finally gets kicked eastward. As southerly low-level flow gets reestablished, today should be a few degrees warmer than the past few. Highs climb into the mid 90s for most, with heat indices generally 95-100. As lee troughing continues to deepen to our west, another round of convection will develop this evening across western KS and southwest NE. Persistent isentropic ascent around 700 mb should help keep convection going into north- central KS, particularly if an appreciable cold pool can develop. Effective shear has trended a bit stronger (to around 30 kts) compared to yesterday, so have more confidence now in damaging wind potential (gusts 60-65 mph) as storms approach north-central KS towards midnight. Increasing capping and weaker instability with eastern extent means storms should still weaken eventually as they approach eastern KS. Could also see some locally heavy rain totals of 2-4" across north-central KS, given 1.75" PWATs and some degree of training convection. While this could result in isolated flooding issues, the steady eastward motion of the system keeps the potential for larger flooding issues low, especially with the past few days of dry conditions.

The overnight storms shift to the east by mid-morning tomorrow, with increasing confidence that this will push an outflow boundary/effective cold front southward through most of the area. So adjusted high temperatures Thursday 4-5 degrees cooler, closer to the HREF mean in the mid/upper 80s. Confidence is lower with additional precipitation chances Thursday afternoon into Friday. If the main boundary stays south of the area, as is trending more likely, that would reduce chances for PM severe thunderstorm development. Could still see some scattered showers and storms north of the boundary, mainly Thursday and Friday nights as the LLJ strengthens isentropic ascent.

Could see some lingering rain chances through the weekend as the boundary stays nearby across Oklahoma and Arkansas. However we should generally dry out as the boundary sags farther south and upper ridging strengthens over the Rockies. By next week, this ridging will further strengthen and expand northeast over the Northern Plains. Very good consistency in the LREF for 500 mb heights to approach 600 dam somewhere over the north-central CONUS. So very good confidence in heat increasing next week, though at least through mid-week the most anomalous heat should stay to our north.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions with light SSE winds will persist through this evening. After midnight, storms should move west to east across the area, with some gusty winds possible towards KMHK.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.