textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered severe storms are possible(20-40%) Tuesday late afternoon and more likely evening for portions of north central Kansas. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard followed by small hail.

- Gradual pattern change leads to drier conditions and warming temperatures into the middle and upper 90s late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Weakening, embedded shortwave troughs are traversing through the Midwest this afternoon while upper ridging is stagnant in the southwest CONUS. Clearing skies and slightly better BL mixing has warmed temps into the upper 80s this afternoon. Cannot rule out some patchy fog developing in low lying areas towards far eastern Kansas early tomorrow morning, however increasing high clouds may mitigate it from being a larger impact.

Focus on the short term turns to another embedded perturbation sliding into Nebraska by late afternoon Tuesday. Latest CAM guidance remains somewhat varied on the location and timing of a developing MCS by early evening, ranging from northwest KS to our forecast area in north central Kansas. Ample heating amid MUCAPE approaching 4000 J/KG and DCAPE near 1000 J/KG suggests any storms that are able to develop a decent cold pool will be capable of damaging wind gusts. Effective bulk shear is weak around 20 kts so the large hail threat is minimal as storms enter KS. The LLJ is not particularly strong overnight to sustain severe storms and would anticipate an overall weakening trend through Wednesday morning.

Extended period becomes calmer in terms of precipitation chances as height rises spread east through the central plains by the weekend. Sfc high pressure gradually slides east Friday as a sfc low begins to deepen in western Kansas, increasing southerly flow and warm advection to northeast Kansas in time for the weekend. Minimal spread among ensembles gives medium to high confidence for highs to reach the middle and upper 90s Saturday/Sunday. Will need to monitor heat index trends as forecast dewpoints near 70 degrees translate to apparent temps around 100 degrees each afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR at terminals with easterly winds near 10 kts sustained this afternoon becoming light aft 00Z. High clouds are expected to increase from the northwest aft 09Z, as forecast soundings are hinting at low lying stratus or patchy fog developing. KTOP would most likely see this aft 09Z if extensive high clouds can hold off. Additionally, I would like to see more consistency in models before including in the TAF.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.