textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy and cold Friday with scattered snow showers this afternoon. Accumulations will be minimal, but visibilities could fall quickly within snow showers.

- Northwesterly wind gusts this afternoon of 35-45 mph will be common.

- Cold continues Saturday with highs below freezing. A brief warm-up Sunday before another shot of cold comes MLK Jr. Day.

- Elevated Fire Danger over the next few days. See Fire Weather Discussion below for further details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

3 AM mid-level water vapor imagery shows a stout shortwave trough axis pushing its way across eastern NE and northern KS, ridging over the PNW with north/northwesterly flow settled over the northern Rockies and extending into the southern Plains. Across central Kansas, a strong cold front has pushed across the area - currently in southeastern Kansas - and has ushered in strong, gusty winds and some light rain within in some areas of 850-700mb frontogenesis. Light rain chances will quickly push southeast following the front over the next few hours with most staying dry.

The main focus in the short term will be the gusty northwesterly winds and the chance for convective snow showers - some exhibiting snow squall characteristics. By the later morning hours, diurnal mixing should promote winds from 800-700 mb to reach the surface and push wind gusts to 35-45 mph through much of the day. While confidence was not high enough for a wind advisory, areas that will have the best chance to see advisory level winds should be areas across north-central KS where low level wind profiles are strongest. In addition to the wind, scattered to widespread convective snow showers will develop as the mid-level shortwave axis pushes into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. RAP snow squall parameters of 1- 2 overspread all of northeast Kansas this afternoon as frontogenesis and 50-100 J/kg of instability within the the saturated DGZ overlap. This poses an environment ripe for convective snow squalls to develop that could lead to rapidly falling visibilities. Recent CAM solutions pinpoint areas across far eastern and northeastern KS seeing the best and most widespread potential for convective snow showers as this seems to be where the best DGZ saturation and lift overlap this afternoon and into the evening. Accumulations within snow showers are not expected to be very significant as the biggest threat with snow will be rapidly changing and hazardous travel conditions. Flash freezes will be possible with any strong snow showers/squalls, but better chances for flash freezes to occur will be closer to the evening and closer to the KS/NE border. Convective snow showers continue across far northeastern KS this evening before moving east after midnight.

CAA continues through the day Saturday with high temperatures not warming much, topping out in the low to mid 20s. Surface ridging pushes into the area Saturday evening into Sunday morning helping to plummet Sunday AM temperatures into the single digits. Winds shift by Sunday afternoon back towards the south/southwest and help to provide a brief warm up. This will be short-lived as another mid- level shortwave embedded in the northwesterly flow pushes another cold front through the area Sunday evening. This will plummet Monday morning temperatures back towards the upper single digits with highs only warming into the upper 20s and low 30s. The remainder of the week will see similar systems roll through the central Plains as northwesterly flow dominates the central US. That said, dry conditions are expected to continue until a late week system ushers in moisture from the southwest and returns some low-end PoPs to the central Plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Gust NNW winds continue through the period with the strongest winds through this afternoon. A couple primary areas with short duration snow bands continue on track to move through the area later this afternoon into early evening. Should these areas hold together, expect an hour or less of reduced visibility with light snow amounts generally during the 21-03Z window. Have maintained PROB30 mention due to localized impacts and uncertainty in these small snow bands holding together enough to directly impact the terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2026

Elevated fire danger will exist over the next few days as gusty winds and dry air remain common over the region. By this afternoon, northwesterly winds sustained between 20-25 mph and gusts between 35-45 mph will develop after 9 AM as surface and low level pressure gradients remain tight. Diurnal mixing up to 850mb will help to mix out the BL a bit, but not expected RH values to drop much below 35 percent as cloud cover and moisture builds in from the north by the afternoon. This should help to mitigate widespread fire concerns, but still could see some high to very high fire weather conditions, mainly across central and north-central KS for an hour or two this morning before moisture moves in.

By Saturday, dry air advection and gusty northwesterly winds will combine to create high to very high fire danger in the afternoon. Wind gusts upwards of 30 mph will create dangerous burning conditions as fires may exhibit erratic behavior given ample and dry fuels. Another windy and dry day returns Sunday and again will create elevated fire danger. A wind shift during the late afternoon will also need to be monitored as southwesterly winds shift to the northwest following a frontal passage. The frontal passage will reinforce dry air into the region for Monday, but thankfully, winds are expected to weaken by Monday afternoon so fire danger should be on the lower side.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.