textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Patchy fog may develop tonight in eastern KS.

-Temperatures warm into midweek when highs return to the mid 90s.

-The first half of the workweek looks dry, then rain chances return for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

This afternoon, water vapor shows a compact cyclonic circulation moving southward out of IA and over northern MO. Diurnal cu has developed over the area but a thicker batch of mid level clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles are associated with the low as it approaches far northeast KS. Any precipitation that develops is more likely to impact portions of MO today, so have kept POPs less than 15 percent. Clear skies and light winds tonight could again aid in some patchy fog development, especially in the Kansas River Valley, for a brief time early Monday morning.

Tomorrow, the forecast area will be on the eastern edge of an expanding mid level ridge centered over the Four Corners region, and the western edge of a sfc ridge over the Great Lakes. Conditions should be dry with temperatures right at climatological average in the upper 80s. Temperatures will undergo a slight warming trend into midweek as the upper ridge and low level southerly flow become more established over the area. By Wednesday, highs will again reach the mid 90s. Heat index values will be a few degrees higher given the anticipated humidity.

The upper pattern then becomes more zonal with long range models showing a few perturbations moving over the area. The first is set to arrive Wednesday night, with the next coming in late Thursday/early Friday. POPs increase with both systems for late week, with the higher chances currently looking to be across far northern KS early Thursday. Higher probabilities are then forecast for the entire area early Friday as a surface front moves in. Pwats around 1.8 inches and some elevated instability could allow for periods of heavy rainfall, but the risk for severe weather is currently not looking too concerning. High pressure may then keep conditions dry and hot through next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Diurnal cu should primarily stay SCT but may briefly become BKN at the Topeka sites this afternoon. Otherwise, the set up tonight with clear skies and light winds may support another round of reduced visibilities at KTOP. Went ahead and included that mention with this update but later updates might choose to reduce further if confidence increases.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.