textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered storms possible across far eastern Kansas this afternoon. Some may be strong with winds gusts to 60 mph.

- Dangerous heat and humidity continues through Tuesday. Expect afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s with heat indices in the 105- 110 degree range.

- A frontal boundary moves across the area Wednesday afternoon returning widespread chances for rain and storms.

- Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front for the remainder of the week with chances for rain and storms increasing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Another hot and humid afternoon is again underway today with most of northeast KS already approaching the mid 90s as of 1 PM. Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a decaying convective complex entering central KS as a shortwave rounding the upper level ridge is noted across eastern Kansas. This wave has helped to provide a bit of upper-level support and shear across far eastern Kansas this afternoon. For the remainder of the afternoon, MLCAPE values ahead of the shortwave axis will build into the 3000-4000 J/kg range as deep shear increases towards 25-30 knots. Mesoanalysis has already noted minimal surface inhibition across east-central KS and looks to be confirmed by visible satellite imagery showing towering Cu from the Flint Hills towards the I-35 corridor. Scattered storms are expected to develop within this corridor as the shortwave moves into the Mississippi Valley this evening. Given the thermodynamic environment and inverted-V soundings, the main hazard with any stronger storms will be wind gusts to 60 mph. By the later afternoon and early evening hours, best forcing will become focused across western Missouri so this should shift the best storm chances east of the area. Could still see some lingering elevated showers and isolated storm across far east-central and northeastern KS, but higher confidence in storm coverage will be east of the area.

The dangerous heat continues into Labor Day with heat indices again expected to build into the 105-110 degree range. Cannot rule out some weak pop-up showers/storms across far east-central KS by the mid to late afternoon, but given the lack of upper-level support and low-level forcing, chances are only around 15 percent.

A change in the synoptic pattern is not expected to come until Wednesday as a trough digging out of the BC/PNW region moves into the the northern Plains. Most guidance depicts this wave to be strong enough to deepen and push a lee cyclone across the Plains Wednesday. Given the moisture in place, rain and storms along the boundary will be likely Wednesday. Some stronger storms along the boundary may be possible by later in the afternoon Wednesday across east-central KS as CAPE and shear increase. Gusty winds and some small hail look to be the main hazards in any isolated strong/severe storm. Given the frontal boundary and appreciable cloud cover Wednesday, most of the area should find some relief in temperatures, especially across northern Kansas as highs top out in the upper 80s. Further south where the boundary will take a bit longer to reach, temperatures may again approach the mid to upper 90s with heat indicies in the low triple digits.

Thankfully, the remainder of the work week and weekend looks much cooler as a modified Canadian airmass moves into the area. Expect temperatures to top out in the upper 80s and low 90s. A more active precipitation pattern looks to set up by the late week and weekend with several waves moving in from the PNW. While any precipitation will be very welcomed, this pattern should at least keep persistent upper-level ridging south and west of the region, and hopefully for the remainder of Summer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Outside of some scattered convection across far eastern Kansas this afternoon, TAFs are expected to remain VFR with light southeasterly winds. PROB30 groups remain at KTOP and KFOE for afternoon storms.

CLIMATE

Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 7 Topeka 77, set in 1939 & 2016 72 Concordia 79, set in 1922 74

September 8 Topeka 78, set in 1983 74 Concordia 77, set in 1947 & 1983 78

Record high temperature information:

September 8 Topeka 104, set in 2013 101 Concordia 102, set in 2013 101

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.