textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly above normal temperatures are expected into Wednesday. - Low chance (15-20%) for light snow or a wintry mix Wednesday morning. Impacts are not expected at this time.

- Look for a bigger warmup Thursday into the weekend with highs in the 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed a broad upper level trough across the eastern US. Northwest mid and upper level flow was noted across the PLains. An upper ridge extended from the southwestern US, northward into the Great Basin.

The 18Z surface map showed a cold ridge of high pressure centered across the Gulf States, with a surface ridge axis extending north-northeast across the mid MS River Valley. Temperatures at noon have warmed into the lower to mid 30s as winds have become southwesterly.

Tonight through Tuesday:

A longer wave length upper trough will continue across the eastern half of the US. The more amplified shorter wave length trough will shift east out into the Atlantic. The mid-level flow will become more west-northwest across the Plains on Monday. A lee surface low will deepen across the TX PNHDL and move east across OK. Surface winds will turn more easterly Tomorrow with highs reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s north of I-70 and lower to mid 40s south of I-70. There will be a bit more cloud cover as a weak perturbation embedded within the west-northwest flow digs southeast across NE/IA and eastern KS into MO.

A more amplified H5 trough will dig southeast out western Canada into the northern and central high Plains. light north winds will keep highs a bit cooler on Tuesday with mid 30s northeast to lower to mid 40s across the southwest counties of the CWA. Topeka will see a high around 40 degrees.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:

Most of the deterministic models and LREF show the upper trough digging southward across the central into the southern High Plains. The stronger DCVA will be across western KS into OK and west TX. But there is a slight chance to see light snow. If the mid levels are unsaturated and the low-level are moist enough, with some weak ascent, there could possibly be some patchy -fzdz. However, there continues to be much uncertainty seeing any type of precip. The LREF only has a 4 to 10 percent of ice accumulations over 0.01 across the western counties of the cWA, but a better probability of seeing 0.01 or greater snow accumulations of 10 to 20 percent across the western counties of the CWA early Wednesday morning. The more amplified section of the H5 trough will dig southeast across OK and phase with a northern stream H5 trough digging southeast out of central Canada across the Great Lakes States. Highs Wednesday will reach the upper 30s northeast to mid 40s southwest.

Wednesday night through Sunday:

The H5 ridge across the western US will gradually shift east into the Plains. Look for a warming trend through the end of the week. Highs Thursday should reach the lower to mid 50s with west-southwest surface winds. A weak front will shift southward across the area on Friday but highs south of I-70 ahead of the front will reach the mid to upper 50s. The northern counties will see upper 40s to lower 50s. The weekend looks mild with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s northeast and lower to mid 50s across the remainder of the cWA, with dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Fog development is looking more likely overnight given light winds and clear skies. Coverage and how dense fog will be remains uncertain, but think there will be at least some VSBY restrictions with the potential for IFR or even LIFR VSBY at times. Fog will burn off by 14-15z Monday with VFR conditions expected thereafter.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.