textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with well above normal temperatures are forecast to continue through the end of the week.

- Parts of east central KS will have dense fog this morning with visibilities as low as a quarter of a mile.

- Winter looks to return by Sunday with a big cool down expected. Highs are forecast to be in the 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

07Z water vapor imagery showed a general zonal pattern or flat mid level ridge across the central U.S. with an upper trough moving on shore into British Columbia. Surface obs showed a weak trough from the southern high plains into the upper Midwest with the better dewpoints still over the Ozarks and to the south.

Moisture advection has not been as robust into east central KS as earlier forecasts had and latest model progs have trended less widespread with fog. There is still a good setup for radiational fog development, especially near bodies of water so will keep a mention of fog through mid morning. But the impacts may be more isolated. For tonight models again try to show strong saturation in the boundary layer. Forecast soundings have a little more wind in the top of the boundary layer and this may favor more of a stratus deck forming if there is some moisture advection overnight. Still the 00Z HREF has some decent probabilities around 50 percent for lower visibilities. So will include a broad brush of patchy fog into Wednesday morning. But confidence in there being dense fog is low given the better winds near the top of the boundary layer. Also RAP forecast soundings suggest the low level moisture will remain shallow initially.

Models show some weak cold air advection today as the surface trough slips south. And then there isn't a whole lot of warm air advection progged for Wednesday. Still think there should be enough insolation by the afternoon for highs to reach the lower and middle 60s. Highs from the NBM for Christmas Day have also trended a few degrees cooler. Models show a weak inverted trough setting up across east central KS which could again limit warm air advection. Based on 925MB temps highs still look to be in the middle 60s to around 70 for most places.

Ensembles and the NBM show little chance for precip through the weekend and into next week. In fact only about 5 percent of the 12Z ensembles develop any precip in the extended at all. The broad upper ridge over the plains now is forecast to break down by the end of this week with a northwesterly flow pattern developing for the central plains this weekend. The operational GFS and ECMWF have converged towards a similar idea with a closed low over the Great Lakes by Sunday. This should allow a cold front to push through late Saturday with a Canadian surface high building into the central plains on Sunday. Limited moisture has the front passing dry. This all seems to be well handled by the NBM and haven't made any changes. So mild temperatures continue into Saturday with a noticeable cool down expected for Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Fog has cleared across the terminals in the past few hours with VFR conditions and light northeasterly winds through the afternoon. Some flight restrictions will move in again later this evening as the BL saturates again, ushering in another chance for fog and IFR (possible LIFR) ceilings. Confidence in fog is a bit lower than this morning as there may be some mixing at the top of the BL that helps to keep things as low stratus. Kept mention of IFR VIS at all sites with IFR CIGs and can work that down if confidence in fog increases. For the end of the TAF, things should scatter out a bit by late Wednesday morning, but there are some forecast soundings that keep a deck of stratus through much of the afternoon Wednesday. Opted to go with a scattered group for the low ceilings and will continue to monitor changes and the need for a CIG restriction Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 250 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Record Forecast Normal

Dec 24 High Topeka 74 (2021) 67 42 Concordia 68 (1889) 61 39

Dec 25 Warm Low Topeka 50 (2019) 42 22 Concordia 46 (1936) 37 20

Dec 25 High Topeka 68 (1922, 2016) 69 41 Concordia 64 (1950, 2016) 62 39

Dec 26 High Topeka 67 (2008) 67 41 Concordia 64 (1959, 2008) 66 39

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.