textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of scattered showers and storms continue through tonight. Severe weather potential is low but small hail and locally heavy rain will remain possible.

- Warming up Monday with heat indices peaking near 100. A few evening strong to severe storms possible across north-central KS.

- Cold front stalls across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Cool with pockets of heavy rain and storms north of the front, warm with more isolated rain/storm chances south of front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

North of a warm front across southeast Kansas, our area remains cool and unsettled this afternoon. Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are still ongoing around the Topeka area, but are gradually fading away as isentropic ascent weakens. While temperatures should approach 80 towards central KS where more sunshine has occurred, expecting highs to hold in the 70s across the majority of the area given the persistent cloud cover. Overnight, the warm front should begin to move north across our area. Expecting another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop as this occurs, mainly north of I-70. Similar to this morning's storms, some small hail could occur with these, but limited elevated instability should keep the severe weather threat low. High PWAT and favorable hodographs for slower-moving efficient rain-producers may result in locally heavy rain of 2-4". However the main area of rain should shift north into Nebraska by mid morning as the front continues north, so the overall flood threat seems low.

With the warm front fully north of the area, Monday will be a warm day across the entire area. Highs warm into the 90s, and with dewpoints near 70 heat indices will approach 100 for most. Meanwhile, an upper low over the Northern Plains will be pushing a cold front into far north-central KS. Convergence along the front should allow for some scattered storms to develop over the late afternoon and evening hours. Moderate shear and instability appear favorable for some northeastward moving clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

While the severe potential should stay confined to far north-central KS Monday night, a similar setup appears likely farther east on Tuesday as the front slowly pushes farther through the area. Still some questions on the exact eastward extent, but most guidance takes the front somewhere near Topeka by mid-day. In the sunnier skies ahead of the front, highs will approach 90 across far east-central KS. Any storm that develops along the boundary will see steeper low- level lapse rates and better instability, favorable for some isolated damaging winds or small hail. Meanwhile behind the front, steady CAA and thicker cloud cover amidst rounds of elevated storms should keep temperatures in the 70s and even 60s. Given multiple rounds of rain and storms through early Wednesday, there is potential for a widespread several inches of rain, particularly across portions of northern KS near the Nebraska border. Deterministic guidance hints at smaller pockets of 3-6", so we'll have to watch flooding potential if multiple rounds travel over the same areas.

Later in the week into next weekend, uncertainty increases. The frontal boundary should lift back north a bit, but remain generally close by. So we'll see a bit of a warming trend, but continue to see a decent range in temperatures across the forecast area. Rain chances continue along the front, as several weak upper perturbations move across the central Plains. Difficult to pin these small waves down at this range, so keeping broad PoPs in place through Saturday for now.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR TAFs are expected with the main aviation hazard being gusty conditions through the period. Kept low level wind shear in at KMHK as winds through the lowest 2kft will change direction. Will continue to monitor the need for any mention of low level wind shear for KTOP and KFOE, but winds through the boundary layer should be lower further east. Opted not to add mention of precipitation overnight for KTOP and KFOE as better confidence in storm coverage will be further north of the terminals.

Winds increase Monday morning and afternoon as surface winds shift back out of the south, gusting upwards of 25-30 mph by the late afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.