textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild tonight but cold air returns Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

- Flurries and sprinkles possible late tonight into Wednesday night.

- Dry with near normal temperatures Friday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Northwest upper flow regime from the Pacific Northwest to the central CONUS has backed in the short term with cirrus making its way over the central Rockies downstream of an upper wave digging over California. Lee troughing has allowed for decent warm-air advection over the snow field over much of the area with temperatures at to well above freezing at 19Z.

Continued south to southwest flow near the surface under increasing high cloud should lead to steady temperatures for the late evening and overnight. Most guidance indicates a few weak mid-level waves traversing the area later tonight and again Wednesday. Forcing for ascent looks weak and low-level moisture is largely lacking, though does increase for a several hour period behind a cold front that will surge southeast across the area late tonight into early Wednesday afternoon. The coincidence of these waves with the greater low-level saturation is not ideal but there is enough concern to mention trace precip; the vast majority of models fail to generate measurable precipitation. Temperatures behind the front may fall in the afternoon for central and northern areas given strong 925 mb CAA and little insolation. Overall, temperatures with this next front have trended a bit warmer than earlier but lows still approach record low values at TOP with wind chill in the single digits above 0 much of Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.

Northwest flow persists into early next week though becomes more zonal, which should keep significant cold surges more in check. A modest wave around Saturday night will need to be monitored, but precipitation chances look low beyond Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1031 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

No significant changes expected from the previous forecast...VFR conditions through mid- morning tomorrow until FROPA occurs with a front moving in from north to south across the area. Behind the front, expect low stratus around or above FL015 to remain in place through the afternoon. A few gusts accompany frontal passage lasting into the evening hours before relaxing. Conditions for LLWS overnight tonight are looking only marginally strong with winds increasing aloft through FL020. Since only marginal impacts are anticipated, have not mentioned in the forecast at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Record Low Temperatures for Dec 4...

Current Record Forecast

Topeka 8, set in 1902 10 Concordia -2, set in 1886 8

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.