textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance for a few strong to severe storms late tonight with storms moving in from western KS. Small hail and gusty winds main hazards.

- Low rain chances again Tue and Wed towards central KS, but mostly dry elsewhere. Rain chances increase area wide Thu and into next weekend.

- Temperatures stay near to slightly above average, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Thunderstorms have finally diminished over the past couple hours, as a weak surface low shifts off to the east. A few showers and storms may linger to around sunrise in far eastern KS, but synoptic subsidence should help things clear out for the daytime hours. With sunshine and strengthening ridging aloft, temperatures will heat up into the upper 80s. Weak northeasterly winds will help to advect some slightly drier air into the area, so it will still feel humid but not quite as sticky as yesterday. We'll have to watch for some more showers and storms overnight tonight as another shortwave moves over the High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop out in far western KS may eventually try to make it into western portions of the CWA. Uncertain they do make it that far given increasing nocturnal CIN, but if they can move in to central KS some isolated gusty winds or small hail can't be ruled out.

Broad high pressure to our northeast will help weak CAA continue into early Tuesday, keeping the remainder of the week slightly cooler than today. With the upper ridge nearby though, temperatures stay near to a bit above average. Highs generally look to be in the low to mid 80s. Can't rule out a few showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday across western portions of the area, closer to a diffuse boundary over southwest Kansas. However for most it appears to be a rare multi-day stretch of dry conditions, especially east of the Flint Hills.

By Thursday though and into next weekend there are indications we may return to a bit of a wetter pattern. A weak, slow-moving upper low looks to develop over the southern High Plains, which would allow for modest but persistent isentropic ascent across eastern Kansas. Details will be dependent on the exact track and strength of the system, but another increase in rain coverage seems plausible at some point over this period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Shallow fog has not yet developed at any of the terminals, but seems to be on the verge of developing at KTOP and KMHK based on observations. So including some mention of mist/fog there for the next hour. Expecting VFR conditions for the remainder of the day, with just a low confidence scenario for weakening storms approaching MHK after midnight. Winds stay generally easterly around or below 10 kts throughout the day.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.