textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-A series of shortwaves will keep rain chances in the forecast at times this week.

-The highest potential for heavy rain is on Thursday.

-A major pattern shift will then bring a consistently hot and humid trend to the area by next week. Highs will be in the mid 90s, with heat indices in the 100 to 110 degree range.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis showed an upper level trough moving east across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. There was a broad upper level trough across the southeast US. The upper flow continued to be west- northwesterly across the Plains.

The 6Z surface map showed a weak boundary extending westward across the lower MS River Valley, then extending northwest through north TX,then northwest into western KS. Winds are becoming southeasterly across most of the CWA north of the boundary but wind speeds remain less than 5 MPH. Thunderstorms continued across eastern CO/Western KS and western NE. The lead storms approaching central NE are beginning to weaken.

Today through Saturday:

The CAMs show the stronger thunderstorms this morning will follow the higher theta-e axis extending from northern OK, northwest into western KS. I can't rule out some of the weaker showers and thunderstorms moving southeast out of central and south central NE reaching the CWA but most of these showers and thunderstorms will dissipate before moving into east central KS. The H5 trough across the upper midwest will fill as it shifts east across the northern Great Lakes. A perturbation rounding an H5 ridge across northern Mexico will shift northeast, then east into the southern/central high Plains. The mid level flow will become more zonal across the Plains Tonight and upslope convection across eastern CO will have a better chance of forming a strong to severe thunderstorm complex. that will move more to the east. Though some CAMs continue to show the better instability across southern KS and northern OK. A cold front will also be moving southward across northern KS on Thursday morning, that may provide some convergence for storms farther north across the CWA through the afternoon hours. MUCAPE will increase to 1500-2500 J/KG with 30 to 40 KTS of effective shear, so I cannot rule out a few severe storms along and south of I-70. There may be some large hail and I cannot rule out some damaging wind gusts. If a complex of severe storms develops Thursday morning, then there may be a prolong period of heavy rainfall which could lead to possible flooding during the day on Thursday. Any complex of thunderstorms will be more of a mesoscale forecast and the newer CAM runs will need to be monitored.

Thursday evening the surface front will push south of the CWA. There may be a few strong to severe storms that develop ahead of the front, across areas along and south of I-70 during the afternoon and evening hours. The front will become stationary across northern OK early Friday morning.

Friday, there may be a few elevated showers north of the front but most of the strong to severe storms will be well south of the CWA across northern OK.

An H5 trough will move onshore across the western US Thursday afternoon and shift east across the central Rockies on Saturday. A down stream H5 ridge will begin to amplify across east TX, northward along the KS/MO border. A lee surface trough will deepen across the northern and central high Plains. Strong southerly low-level winds will lift the surface boundary across northern OK, northward across eastern KS into NE by late saturday afternoon. As the warm front shifts north, there may be a few showers and thunderstorms. The effective shear will weaken through the afternoon hours.

Sunday through Wednesday:

The H5 ridge across the MS River valley will expand north and west through next week. The H5 trough across the western US will shear apart, as lead H5 trough lift north-northeasta across the northern Plains into Canada. Expect hot and humid conditions with highs reaching the mid 90s and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Afternoon heat indices will reach the 102 to 110 degree range. Heat advisories or an excessive heat warning will probably need to be issued next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Cloud cover scatters this afternoon with VFR expected until Thursday morning when MVFR CIGS could again impact sites for a few hours. Have opted to not include RA or TS mention with this update due to a low confidence forecast. Precipitation will become more likely toward the end of this period, and especially toward Thursday late afternoon and evening.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.