textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming temps this weekend into early next week with highs in low/mid 90s and peak heat indices near 100 degrees.

- A slow moving cold front returns occasional precipitation chances overnight Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The cold front continues to sag south through northern Kansas this afternoon as a weakening MCV treks southeast into central KS. There is a 10% chance for an isolated storm to pop up in north central Kansas from this feature through early evening, but otherwise the forecast area remains dry. Subsidence settles in this evening as the drier airmass offers a welcome relief from the humidity as dewpoints fall back to the low 60s overnight under mostly clear skies. Mid clouds may increase from decaying showers and storms to the west Thursday morning towards central Kansas, otherwise should remain a dry Wednesday and likely the coolest afternoon in the forecast period with readings in the 80s.

Sfc ridge axis slides eastward by Friday morning, as low level troughing develops to the west, veering winds to the south and increasing warm air advection into the weekend. Southerly wind speeds are around 15 to 20 mph sustained, increasing to near 25 mph sustained on Sunday afternoon. H85 temps gradually increase in turn from 20C on Friday to around 30C by Sunday. Dewpoints also climb back into the upper 60s, combined with highs in the upper 90s result in max heat indices around 100 degrees Sunday through early next week. Ensembles into next week have decent agreement on highs as the upper ridge is finally shunted eastward by a incoming upper low across the northern plains. A cold front is forced southward, although there remain high discrepancies on the timing of the front and minor perturbations within the southwest flow aloft for scattered showers and storms throughout the region. Therefore modest pops were kept in for Sunday night to early Tuesday across northern Kansas, mainly during the overnight periods.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR at terminals as north winds sustain from 5 to 8 kts through the forecast period. Despite the drier sfc airmass moving in this evening, there is a slight indication from forecast soundings of patchy fog forming in the river valley at KTOP. Decided not to add at this time, but will need to revisit later this evening.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.