textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend.

- Off and on chances for showers are forecast through the weekend. The better chances (around 60%) for precipitation look to be Friday and again Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed a couple disorganized shortwaves lifting northeast into the northern and central plains. A longer wavelength trough was setup over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface an inverted trough of low pressure extended from a surface low over northeast NM into south central NEB. Southerly flow and good insolation has kept a very warm airmass across much of the forecast area. Although moisture return has been limited to a narrow axis along the inverted trough axis.

For tonight through Tuesday night, the weak upper disturbance with the surface boundary in the area should provide enough vertical motion for off an on shower activity. The showers have been weakening this afternoon, but are expected to redevelop this evening as the low level jet and warm air advection pattern picks back up. Overall instability and mid level lapse rates are pretty marginal so strong thunderstorms are unlikely. Looks like there may be a break in the shower activity Tuesday afternoon and evening with the wave moving east of the area. But renewed warm air advection and isentropic lift could cause popcorn showers to form Wednesday morning.

Better chances for showers and storms are forecast for Friday as models show a better defined shortwave lifting through the central plains. The NBM seems to handle this well. By early next week models try to bring another upper trough out of the western U.S. However ensembles show spread in the potential outcomes increases quite a lot by this time. So with lower predictability, have stuck with the NBM/WPC forecast. In short the overall pattern keeps the mean westerlies across the northern tier of the country. This favors above normal temps with occasional precip chances to continue through the end of this week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A weak upper disturbance is expected to slowly move over the area through midday Tuesday. This will bring the chance for isolated to widely scattered showers near MHK late tonight and near TOP and FOE towards 12Z. Confidence in coverage is marginal so may keep precip out of the TAF until it becomes more obvious. Think VFR conditions should prevail through this evening. There could be some lower CIGS try to move in from the west by Tuesday morning.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.