textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Record/near Record warmth into Saturday

- Turning sharply colder with strong north winds on Sunday

- Looking at mainly dry weather with closer to average temps next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

The forecast focus is on the record/near record warmth short term and then on the abrupt change to winter coming on Sunday.

A weak wave and associated with sfc trough passed through this morning taking the low clouds with it and leaving a very warm and somewhat drier northwest flow at the sfc. Highs will reach near records or records today with full sunshine and only passing high clouds.

The weak high center will shift across the area this evening with light winds giving way to light ESE winds after midnight as low pressure develops across eastern CO. Widespread dense fog doesn't appear to be as high a risk tonight as previous nights with better mixing/drying today. There still could be patchy fog in low lying areas/river bottoms but do not expect widespread dense fog.

On Saturday low pressure will continue to develop to our west with ESE winds expected to become south with an effective warm front forecast to move north across the area. The current low clouds across MO could build back southwest overnight into early Saturday and this could prove challenging for the max temp forecast across the northern parts of our area where there could be more cloud cover tomorrow compared to today. Will not make sig changes to the going fcst for highs with low/mid 60s north to around 70 south for tomorrow.

By Sat night 50kt LLJ will develop and expect at least some elevated showers to develop after midnight with isolated thunderstorms also possible given at least modest CAPE aloft. The low center will track across the area Sunday morning allowing a strong push of the cold front which will surge south during the morning with temperatures expected to drop abruptly during the day with frontal passage. Shallow lift in wake of the front could support light precip in the form of rain showers or a mix as temps drop into the 30s. Impacts should be minimal however given short duration of lift/precip and overnight warm temps and warm pavement temps.

Any precip chcs will diminish by Sunday evening with much colder air in place it will feel like winter again with lows in the single digits and teens. No significant storm systems are expected next week with another cold front expected around Weds/Thu however the coldest air should stay east of us next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Expect VFR condition for most of the next 24 hours. Ground fog may form during the early morning hours of Saturday at KTOP but will mix out after around 14Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Record Forecast

Dec 27 High Topeka 71 (1946) 69 Concordia 63 (1928, 1976) 63

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.