textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Some elevated fire danger may exist across north-central Kansas for a few hours this afternoon. See Fire Weather Discussion below for further details.

- Potentially damaging winds are forecast with a developing storm system Sunday. Expect northwest winds to gust between 50 and 60 mph.

- Cold air moves in Sunday with temperatures falling through the day. Some light snow showers in the afternoon may leave light accumulations - generally 0.5" or less of accumulations.

- Below zero wind chills are expected Monday morning. Cold air quickly exits with above average temperatures by the mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The upper low that will impact the region Sunday is currently moving across the WY and CO Rockies and has begun to deepen a lee cyclone across eastern WY and northeast CO. WAA to the east of the lee cyclone has helped to push temperatures across eastern Kansas into the low 60s by mid day with high temperatures expected to top out in the mid to upper 70s (from east to central KS respectively). Some elevated fire danger may briefly exist this afternoon with the warm, dry and breezy conditions, see the fire discussion below for further details.

The upper low ejects into the central Plains overnight tonight and into Sunday morning, pushing the lee cyclone east across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. Pressure gradients behind the passage of a cold front Sunday morning will become very compact leading to very strong winds. BL mixing up to 850 mb will additionally help to bring down 50-60 mph wind gusts through the day Sunday. This could lead to dangerous conditions outdoors, especially driving large vehicles and near areas of loose objects. It seemed that this was to be an anomalous event after looking at the Euro extreme forecast index and shift of tails. It alluded to this event being above climatology metrics and a high chance (80%+) for a very unusual or extreme event to occur. This helped to increase confidence that a large area of northeast KS would see sporadic wind gusts of 60 mph (60-80% chances). Therefore, a High Wind Warning was issued for much of the warning area from 7 AM to 11 PM Sunday. Douglas, Franklin and Anderson counties were upgraded to a Wind advisory as confidence in 60 mph gusts was lower. Still, those areas will still see gusts of 50-55 mph Sunday morning and afternoon. In addition to the wind, some rain changing to snow by Sunday afternoon will be expected that could reduce visibilities a bit. Snow totals will likely top out at 0.5" or less. Better snow chances should stay north and east of the area where less low/mid-level dry air will mix into the storm system.

Very cold air settles across the area Monday morning with wind chills near sunrise below zero. The cold air does not stick around long as low-level flow returns to the south by late Tuesday morning with increasing heights aloft. This will lead to a quick warming trend through Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon temperatures Wednesday hitting the upper 70s and low 80s! Above average temperatures continue Thursday into the weekend with highs topping out in the 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue for majority of the period as winds will become the main hazard, especially later in the period. For this afternoon, winds will veer towards the south, occasionally gusting to 20 mph. The wind field should strengthen this evening ahead of a surface low moving off the Rockies, pushing gusts closer to 25-35 mph. Some low-level turbulent mixing may be realized between 9PM and 4 AM as a 50-60 mph low level jet overspreads the terminals ahead of the surface low. The surface low will push through the terminals around sunrise Sunday morning flipping winds towards the northwest with very strong winds filtering in behind. Expect wind gusts through the remainder of the TAF approaching 55-60 mph with sustained winds around 30 mph. Some reduced visibilities may develop at KMHK in the late period as some falling snow and gusty winds combine to blow snow around.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Some brief very high fire danger may exist across north-central and central KS this afternoon due to breezy southerly winds and RH values dipping down into the 25-30% range. Expect southerly winds sustained between 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph. Skies will remain mostly clear with good mixing up to 2500-3000 feet by the mid afternoon hours. RH will be slow to recover this evening due to the well mixed BL through the evening - possibly getting above 40% by 9-10 PM.

Minimal fire concerns should exist Sunday as RH values will stay above 40%. Winds will be a concern and make fires difficult to control, so outdoor burning is not advised.

The next elevated fire day will be Monday behind the exiting storm system. Mostly sunny skies, breezy conditions by late morning and early afternoon and 18-25% afternoon RH values will set up. With minimal precipitation expected Sunday, this could create conditions where grasses dry quickly and enable fires to exhibit erratic behavior. Northwest winds gusting to 30 mph will be expected, but winds should decrease through the afternoon hours as pressure gradients weaken.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 11 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ058. Wind Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to midnight CDT Sunday night for KSZ040-KSZ056-KSZ059.