textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and dry today and Monday.

- Hot conditions Wednesday with notable thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday into early Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Upper flow was nearly zonal early today but several waves rotating around an upper low over over eastern Canada will allow moderate northwest flow to dominate through the bulk of this forecast. Cold front with one wave was south of Kansas as of 07Z with north to northwest winds providing moderate cold-air advection for a much cooler and drier day today and Monday. A weak cold front passes through late Monday night into early Tuesday. Limited low-level moisture return should keep frontal precipitation in check but some isentropic lift could support some showers and storms Monday night and again Tuesday night ahead of a stronger upper wave moving across the upper Mississippi Valley. This wave brings a stronger front through late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Breezy pre-frontal south to southwest winds make for a much warmer Wednesday with some heat indices likely reaching triple digits. Veered winds off the surface should keep the better moisture to the east but there is at least some chance for thunderstorms late Wednesday into early Thursday. There may be enough shear and instability for some severe weather potential, with LREF probabilities of at least 2000 J/kg of surface CAPE around 50% for eastern areas, but details on CAPE and CIN are far from certain at this range. Temperatures back off a bit Thursday and Friday, but upper flow becoming more zonal brings warmer temperatures and perhaps some precipitation Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 652 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected. Some cloud around FL050 may be present at times. Appear some gusts could be common in daytime mixing today but winds come down quickly as high pressure builds in late today.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.