textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and quiet weather persists through the weekend.

- Low (15%) chance of showers across far-northern KS Thu/Fri, otherwise dry through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Another quiet afternoon across the area, with light southeasterly winds and clear skies in the vicinity of surface ridging. The core of the mid-level jet remains to our north, with above normal 500 mb heights dominating the majority of the CONUS. This tranquil pattern will remain in place for several more days. Several weak waves to our north and northeast will push a few weak fronts/wind shifts through, but with the continued upper ridging we'll see warm temperatures persisting. Expecting continued highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s with lows in the 50s to low 60s. Given limited moisture and the presence of synoptic subsidence for much of the time, dry conditions are expected through Sunday. The one possible exception may be Thursday into Friday as a weak boundary sets up across far northern KS, but even then any rainfall amounts would be light.

By the very end of the period early next week (or just beyond), there are some signs of change. Good agreement in long range guidance for a deep upper low developing over the western CONUS before shifting eastward to the Plains. But timing, amplitude, timing of individual shortwaves, etc are yet to be determined this far out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Clear skies and light southerly winds will persist through the next day, though winds do look to increase a bit and become more southwesterly towards the very end of the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.