textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Winds increase and temperatures trend colder behind today's cold front.

-A Freeze Watch has been issued Friday night with increasing confidence in freezing temps for a portion of the area.

-Temperatures warm late this weekend and early next week with rain chances back in the forecast later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

This afternoon, a cold front is moving through eastern KS ahead of a lead trough axis aloft. Northwest winds will increase behind the front as CAA brings in a cooler and drier air mass from the north. Temperatures are likely to drop this afternoon given the strong CAA pattern. Hi-res models then show an increase in northwest winds for a brief period late this evening along a secondary boundary ahead of a stronger trough axis moving in from the Northern Plains. Temperatures fall into the low 40s tonight with gusty winds and clearing skies. A stratus cloud deck then looks to move back over the area tomorrow from the northeast. Continued CAA with the approach of a surface ridge axis and low cloud cover will make for a chilly day with highs only reaching the low to mid 50s tomorrow afternoon.

The downward trend in temperatures continues into Saturday morning as a nearly 1040 mb ridge axis settles right overhead. Confidence has been increasing in temperatres falling to near freezing for a good portion of the area with models agreeing on the favorable setup. Thus, in coordination with neighboring offices, a Freeze Watch has been issued for the northwestern half of the forecast area Friday night and early Saturday morning. The rest of the area will likely see headlines as well with area-wide frost looking likely. From there, a gradual warming trend is expected as the ridge quickly moves east, bringing southerly flow back across the region. High temperatures Saturday afternoon should approach 60 degrees, then trend about five degrees warmer each afternoon into the start of next week.

The synoptic pattern across the CONUS shifts to a broad area of southwest flow aloft from the southwestern US into the Midwest early in the workweek. Long range deterministic models show periodic shortwaves riding through the flow, however, limited forcing and moisture availability should keep POPs low through Tuesday, then slightly higher probabilities midweek as moisture increases. Rain and storm chances continue to increase later in the week with models in fairly good agreement showing a deeper trough axis approaching the area from the west.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Challenging forecast as a system continues to work through the area today so amendments to TAFs could be needed for the afternoon timeframe. Light and scattered rain showers could linger for the first few hours of this TAF period, but ceilings should generally continue to lift through the afternoon. Northwest winds also increase this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 kts becoming more likely. There could be a brief period late this evening where winds increase further as a secondary front rotates through the region. VFR is then expected to return tonight.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036.