textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend.

- Off and on chances for showers are forecast through the weekend. The better chances (around 60%) for precipitation look to be Friday and again Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed a couple disorganized shortwaves lifting northeast into the northern and central plains. A longer wavelength trough was setup over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface an inverted trough of low pressure extended from a surface low over northeast NM into south central NEB. Southerly flow and good insolation has kept a very warm airmass across much of the forecast area. Although moisture return has been limited to a narrow axis along the inverted trough axis.

For tonight through Tuesday night, the weak upper disturbance with the surface boundary in the area should provide enough vertical motion for off an on shower activity. The showers have been weakening this afternoon, but are expected to redevelop this evening as the low level jet and warm air advection pattern picks back up. Overall instability and mid level lapse rates are pretty marginal so strong thunderstorms are unlikely. Looks like there may be a break in the shower activity Tuesday afternoon and evening with the wave moving east of the area. But renewed warm air advection and isentropic lift could cause popcorn showers to form Wednesday morning.

Better chances for showers and storms are forecast for Friday as models show a better defined shortwave lifting through the central plains. The NBM seems to handle this well. By early next week models try to bring another upper trough out of the western U.S. However ensembles show spread in the potential outcomes increases quite a lot by this time. So with lower predictability, have stuck with the NBM/WPC forecast. In short the overall pattern keeps the mean westerlies across the northern tier of the country. This favors above normal temps with occasional precip chances to continue through the end of this week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Conditions looks to deteriorate somewhat during this forecast, with greatest potential for cigs into the MVFR range and some -SHRA at MHK where moisture and forcing are the highest. Slowed onset of this somewhat though overall confidence in timing and persistence of limiting conditions is low.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.