textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry weather is forecast to persist through the workweek.

- Lower humidity levels may keep the really oppressive heat at bay.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Upper ridging was still over the southern plains per the 07Z water vapor imagery, keeping the mean westerlies and storm tracks to the north of the forecast area. Surface obs placed a trough of low pressure from the northern plains into the central high plains. A decent pressure gradient over central and eastern KS has kept winds and temperatures up so far this morning.

Not a lot of change to the forecast as ensembles and the NBM continue to show the upper ridging persisting over the southern and central plains through the forecast period. There is reasonable agreement from the operational GFS/ECMWF in the overall synoptic pattern but the ECMWF does tend to keep a stronger ridge in terms of 500MB heights over the plains. The interesting thing to watch for is the 00Z AIGFS develops a deeper upper trough over the northeast which tends to shift the upper ridge to the west of the forecast area and develops a more meridional pattern along the MS valley. Presumably this would allow for some cooler air from the north to filter into the area. But given limited experience with the AIGFS, am not comfortable straying from the NBM. So overall a dry and hot forecast continues. The latest NBM keeps POPs less than 20 percent through the period. There is a signal from the RAP for some isentropic lift near the NEB state line this morning with pretty steep mid level lapse rates. CAMs are not to aggressive with developing elevated showers so have kept POPs around 10 percent and will monitor trends as the morning progresses.

The main question is whether or not to go with a heat advisory. There is good agreement in the operational solutions for hot temperatures and based on 925MB and 850MB temps progs have today's forecast highs around 100 degrees. But good south southwesterly unidirectional flow is forecast to mix out boundary layer moisture this afternoon. Because of this, heat indices are expected to be pretty close to the actual temperature. With most areas seeing indices in the 100 to 103 range and humidity being lower than what we experienced earlier in the summer, will hold off on any advisory for now. Operational models suggest with the 1000-500MB thickness progs that highs may be a degree or so less hot to begin the workweek. So in general it looks like persistent highs in the upper 90s and around 100 with lower humidity should keep really oppressive conditions on the lower end of possibilities. Later shifts can reassess the need for heat headlines.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Upper ridging is forecast to keep VFR conditions in place while keeping storm tracks to the north of the terminals.

CLIMATE

Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

August 31 Topeka 77, set in 1912 and 1947 78 Concordia 81, set in 1947 77

September 1 Topeka 81, set in 2011 77 Concordia 80, set in 1913 77

September 2 Topeka 80, set in 2011 79 Concordia 79, set in 1929 78

September 3 Topeka 77, set in 1939 78 Concordia 80, set in 1947 77

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.