textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread fog looks more likely tonight, although it is uncertain how dense it might be.

- Above average temperatures continue through Wednesday, followed by more seasonal values later this week and another warm-up next weekend. Dry weather is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Cut-off low continues to circulate in northern Mexico near west TX with low-amplitude ridging covering most of the rest of the southwestern and central US. We remain in weak flow as a result. A weak sfc trough has slowly passed southward through the area today and a small ridge of high pressure sits across western KS and central NE. Plentiful sunshine, deeper mixing, and increasing mid- level heights are all helping contribute to a warmer day today with all locations warming up nicely into the 60s.

The sfc ridge looks to push south this evening and set up over eastern KS and into MO and OK overnight. This sets the stage for a better radiational fog scenario than we've seen the last two days, as winds look to turn calm with skies remaining clear into tonight. Additionally, crossover temperatures in the mid to upper 40s are likely to be reached. Morning lows are forecast in the low 40s, and could still end up on the cooler side of guidance given this setup. The uncertainty in temperatures is the main factor leading to questions about how dense fog may become. While fog development looks probable across a larger area, widespread dense fog is less certain, especially toward western zones. The REFS shows probability of visibility under a quarter mile around 50-70% across much of eastern KS, but higher visibilities (like 5 miles) are close to the same.

Once any fog burns off Monday morning, another warm and sunny day is expected with highs reaching the 70s. The mid-level ridge looks to flatten into Tuesday as a shortwave ejects across the Northern Rockies, although temperatures are still forecast to reach the low 70s in east central KS areas, mid to upper 60s otherwise.

The aforementioned shortwave looks to induce a sfc low that is progged to move along the MO River Valley into Wednesday morning, bringing a cold front along with it. This results in breezy winds with slightly cooler temperatures in the 60s, although the deeper cooler air lags far enough behind to hold off the stronger CAA until Thursday. The troughing pattern deepens Thursday to our east with multiple shortwaves moving through it, while an amplified ridge develops to our west. Guidance appears to be coming into better agreement on the westward extent of the trough, although GEFS members are still further west than others. It's enough for the ensemble guidance to hone in on a cooler trend with higher confidence in temperatures staying in the 50s Thursday and Friday. The greater uncertainty at this point is how soon the trough moves east and allows the ridge to move overhead. That will impact how quickly we warm back up, which looks to occur either Saturday or Sunday of next weekend. Still no meaningful rain chances are in the forecast for the next 7 days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 516 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

MVFR in fog favored to develop at KTOP/KFOE late tonight with calm wind and temperatures falling to meet the dewpoint. Fog is possible at KMHK, but confidence is a bit lower there, so opted to leave fog out of the TAF for now. Light southwesterly wind develops tomorrow morning.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.