textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The forecast continues to have off and on chances for showers and storms for the next seven days. Rain is most likely (up to 85%) Friday and Friday night and again Monday into Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures should persist through the end of the workweek.

- More seasonal temperatures are forecast by the middle of next week with lows in the lower 40s and highs in the lower and middle 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery along with upper air analysis showed an upper level trough lifting northeast across the northern Plains into south central Canada. A second upper level trough was digging southeast along the Pacific Northwest coastline. A broad upper level ridge was located across the southeast US.

the 6Z surface map showed a lee surface low over southeast CO, with a surface warm front extending northeast across northwest KS, then northeast into western IA. Temperatures south of the warm front across the CWA were in the lower to mid 60s.

Today through Thursday night:

Early this morning a 40 KT LLJ may cause some isolated showers to develop across the eastern half of the CWA. Most CAMs show isolated showers developing across the eastern half of the CWA. The PBL will mix deep enough by the mid and late morning hours to bring an end to the isentropic lift showers. Skies may clear by afternoon. As the lee low deepens in eastern CO, southerly winds will increase late this morning and through the afternoon hours, with winds of 15 to 25 MPH and gust of 25 to 35 MPH.

The H5 trough across the Pacific Northwest will shift east across the northern Plains and into the upper Midwest by Thursday night. The low-level CAA across the northern and central Plains will cause the boundary across NE to shift southeast across the CWA. There will be enough convergence along the front for scattered showers and thunderstorms to back build from southwest IA/southeast NE into northwest KS during the evening hours. MLCAPES will be in the 1000 to 1500 J/KG range, so there should be some thunderstorms. However, effective shear will only be 20-25 KTS. Therefore, these storms should not be severe.

The NAM12, RAP, GFS, and RAP show the front stalling out along or just south of I-70 early Thursday morning. This will continue the chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of the area Thursday into Thursday night.

Highs Today will warm to around 80 degrees with most areas seeing isolation during the afternoon hours. Highs on Thursday will only reach the mid 70s north of the front, with highs around 80 south of the front.

Friday through Wednesday:

The extended range models are in good agreement showing longer wave- length upper trough developing across the western US. The southwesterly flow across the central conus will cause a couple of southern stream H5 troughs to lift northeast across western TX into eastern KS Friday night. As the H5 trough approaches, DCVA ahead of the H5 trough will increase ascent and the boundary south of I-70 will lift northward into central NE. Expect periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop Friday and continue into Saturday morning. The thunderstorms should shift northeast of the area during the morning hours, and there could be a break in the rain Saturday evening (Halloween). But the southerly transport of moisture into eastern KS may cause showers to continue into Saturday night. The cloud cover and chances for rain will keep highs slightly cooler on Friday, with highs in the 70s. Highs will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday.

The northern stream and southern stream H5 troughs across the western US will phase together across the southwest US. On Sunday, expect only isolated to scattered showers due to isentropic lift as the southern stream H5 trough will fill as it shifts east of the area.

As the southern stream and northern stream H5 troughs phase together, they will amplify into a deep H5 low across NM by Tuesday. A 60 to 70 KT jet max will will lift northeast across KS on Monday. A deep surface low across eastern CO will move northeast into south central NE by 00Z TUE. If there was good instability ahead of the front moving east across central KS, there would be a potential severe weather outbreak. However, cloud cover and periods of showers and thunderstorms may prevent sufficient instability from developing for widespread severe weather. However,, given 50 to 60 KT southerly 850mb winds Monday afternoon and a line of storms that develops along the surface front, this line of storms can tap into the stronger winds aloft and may produce damaging wind gusts monday afternoon. We will have to watch the potential for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon with such a dynamic system. The transport of rich gulf moisture northward may provide for periods of heavy rainfall Sunday night through Monday night. NBM shows 1.5" to 2.5" of rainfall Friday through Tuesday.

Both the GFS and ECMWF track the deep H5 low east across northern OK on Tuesday. The thunderstorms and richer moisture will pivot northeast of the area Monday night but expect rain to continue as frontogenesis develops north of the H5 low track. The periods of rain will continue into Wednesday before the upper low shifts east into western AR.

Highs will warm into the lower to mid 70s Monday afternoon, within the warm sector, ahead of the cold front. Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler with highs in the 60s on Tuesday and mid 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A 40kt southwesterly low-level jet at 1200 feet will cause moderate low-level windshear of 25 to 30 KTS through 14Z. After 14Z, southerly surface winds will increase to 14 to 18 KTS with gusts to 22 to 30 KTS through sunset. After sunset the wind gusts will diminish. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.