textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered non-severe thunderstorms linger this morning. There is low confidence for severe storms to enter northern KS from Nebraska late this afternoon. Outside of this, mostly dry weather is expected with highs in the 80s.

- There are additional chances for showers and storms Friday into the weekend, but low predictability of timing and location leads to low confidence.

- Temperatures stay near average through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Looking at the big picture, broad cyclonic flow is noted across the Midwest into the Northeast thanks to an upper low near the Hudson Bay. The upper ridge dominates the Desert Southwest, placing us in an area of quasi-zonal flow aloft. The sfc low and associated cold front have pushed south of the area with WAA and the LLJ helping to maintain storms across the center of the CWA through the night, which have been very slowly making their way southward. These have been sub-severe for the last few hours and should remain so through the morning. With the moisture axis overhead, some brief heavy downpours are possible especially with any updrafts that quickly pulse up and down. The current batch of thunderstorms should exit the area by sunrise. Another area of sub-severe storms is making its way across KS with a convectively induced vort max. This is progged to enter north central KS around sunrise and eventually exit the area by late morning, likely weakening as it does so.

After the morning rain moves out, a break is expected with most areas staying dry the rest of the day. Cooler temperatures are forecast behind the cold front with highs in the 80s. The main challenge for today is whether or not another round of storms makes it into northern KS late this afternoon, and if so, how far south. A weak perturbation within the northwest flow aloft in Nebraska is progged to spark convection there late this morning, which lasts into the afternoon. CAMs are varied in how far south this activity maintains itself, with the few more recent HRRR runs bringing isolated storms as far south as I-70. Most other guidance suggests these storms struggle to do much as they approach our area. Forecast soundings show an uncapped environment by late afternoon with 2000- 2500 J/kg of CAPE and around 45 kts of shear, so if the storms can reach northern KS, the atmosphere appears more favorable to sustain severe weather. Damaging wind would be the main threat with perhaps some small hail.

Any other convection later tonight into Thursday morning is favored to stay well west of the area. Surface high pressure during the day Thursday should allow for mostly sunny skies with temperatures once again reaching the 80s.

Friday through the weekend, we transition to more northwesterly flow aloft as the upper ridge to our west amplifies, as does the troughing pattern to our east. Multiple embedded perturbations during this time frame bring on and off chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, although the low predictability of these waves keeps PoPs low for any given time frame (30% or lower). With rain chances generally looking to be nocturnal, daytime temperatures look to gradually warm a bit through the end of the week with highs a few degrees on either side of 90. Ensemble ranges widen for Sunday into early next week, as the ridge looks to build further east but the timing and location of any subtle waves and associated sfc fronts leads to greater uncertainty at this range.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of TS through the period. The strongest storms have moved east of terminals, but a few weaker ones remain in the vicinity of TOP/FOE. While there should be a little bit of a break following these, additional showers and storms are expected to move in from southern Nebraska later in the overnight hours and move out mid-morning. Otherwise, winds remain light from the north to northeast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.