textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat remains the primary element of concern through the period with the dewpoint temperatures remaining high. Expect heat index values to approach or reach 105 degrees.

- Generally less than 30% chances for showers with an embedded lightning strike or two each day the rest of the week mainly across central into north-central areas.

- Heat may continue into the 4th of July but have held off expansion of the heat headlines for now until confidence increases in the overall setup.

- Could see storms move into the region late Saturday night if trends hold but predictability is low at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Not much change in the pattern or to the going forecast considering the somewhat stagnant upper air pattern in place. An anticyclone remains anchored over the southeastern CONUS with an amplified trough over the western CONUS. The forecast area remains wedged in the middle ground with persistent moist flow into the region allowing for elevated dewpoints to remain in place with surface quasi-stationary frontal boundary over western Kansas and Nebraska.

The leads to low chance POPs most every day primarily in the morning and part of the day time frame as nocturnal flow increases with isentropic upglide maximizing across the area into the early morning into midday time frames. Any storms that may become severe this evening into the early overnight period are expected to initiate over southwestern and western KS areas. As these work east they are generally expected to weaken and eventually become showers and then dissipate as they work east into a stabilizing BL.

Dewpoints this time of year become a primary focus due to the generally warming temperatures that are typically common. Thus, heat is a concern through the period as the upper ridge gradually expands northwest into the area again by Thursday and Friday and possibly extending into Saturday. As height rises, expect dewpoints to remain stubbornly high leading to heat index values that continue to be into the upper 90s and into the middle 100s. Spreads in temperatures and dewpoints favor the 75th percentiles and higher with ensemble cluster data suggesting this should be on track with the overall height rises and the persistent low level flow helping to keep dewpoints steady. Will continue to watch the overall trend to ensure Saturday is indeed under the more commonly referenced "heat dome" before expanding the warning into that time.

Some uncertainty in the overall upper level pattern into Saturday night takes place and where any potential MCS development may or may not track into the area, but if this comes to fruition, it would likely be well after dark into the overnight period. This is the most important day and the most uncertain at this time in the forecast. Will have to check back for trends which will begin to become more clear over the next few cycles.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Some brief LLWS may occur tonight wherever winds temporarily calm, but for the most part sustained south winds 10-15 kts will continue overnight. Expecting VFR conditions to continue as well, with best chance for any showers or storms staying west of KMHK.

CLIMATE

Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature

June 30 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 77 (1911, 1917, 1931 1933, 1970, 2020) 80 Concordia 79 (2011) 79

July 1 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 82 (1933) 78 Concordia 86 (1933) 76

July 2 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 78 (1925) 77 Concordia 78 (1974) 74

July 3 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 77 Concordia 80 (1934) 74

July 4 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1911, 1969) 77 Concordia 82 (1934) 75

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056- KSZ058-KSZ059.