textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered severe storms are expected to develop in the late afternoon Thursday in far northern Kansas, forming into a line of storms as they track southeast.

- Large hail and Damaging Wind gusts are the most likely hazards Thursday with a lesser threat for a few Tornadoes and locally heavy rainfall leading to Flash Flooding.

- Additional strong to severe storms are possible late Saturday evening and again on Sunday for portions of northeast Kansas. Exact details on evolution and hazards of these storms is uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Expansive ridging stretches through the central and northern plains this afternoon. A small, embedded area of low pressure towards southern OK has been responsible for our stratus cloud deck and scattered light drizzle through the late morning hours. As clouds scatter by late afternoon, warmest temps are noted in far northern KS near 80 degrees, cooling to near 70 degrees in far east central Kansas where clouds linger throughout the day.

Clouds move in once again this evening as a lead sfc trough forms over western KS before entering northeast Kansas shortly before sunrise. Scattered showers, perhaps an embedded storm, are associated with this initial wave, however severe storms are not anticipated. Severe potential increases towards north central KS by late afternoon as a cold front approaches southern NE. Relative humidity values quickly drop into the lower teens directly behind the front, progged to reach Republic and Cloud counties in the late afternoon. Fortunately, northerly winds weaken to around 10 mph by this time so extreme fire danger potential is low at this time. Will need to monitor trends in winds, given the very low RH where fuels remain dry. Initial convection may be more isolated as CAPE values are in excess of 3000 J/KG while bulk shear is around 40 kts. A sampling from forecast soundings do not exhibit optimal low level SRH to signal a tornado risk in the late afternoon, and may be more confined to later in the evening as the LLJ strengthens. Given the amount of instability and the anticipation of a decent cold pool to form as storms congeal together in a line, damaging wind gusts to near 70 mph and large hail are the two primary hazards. Cannot rule out a brief tornado with the clusters or lines of storms in the evening, however that window of time would be small in the early evening before the line orients more parallel to the shear vectors and shifts southeast. There are some indications for convection to train during the late evening hours, particularly south of I-70, where some areas could pick up a quick inch of rain. Its probable we could see locally higher amounts, resulting in the marginal risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding.

Storms exit early Friday morning, followed by dry conditions Friday into most of Saturday. Chances for showers and storms increase once again Saturday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts into southeast Kansas. Highest severe probabilities currently reside south of our area for now, however our southern counties in central KS may be impacted as a storms congeal into a cluster tracking southeast overnight.

Focus turns to Sunday with a higher probability for severe weather to occur as the warm front progresses northward through eastern Kansas. CAPE values are in excess of 3000 J/KG while favorable shear profiles suggest the possibility for all hazards with storms on Sunday afternoon/evening. Details on timing of the wave and location of the front/subsequent severe storms are still uncertain this far out. Will continue to monitor model trends, but may be worth considering if outdoor events are planned on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

MVFR to potentially IFR cigs persist through much of the period. Still a signal for some -DZ or -SHRA for a few hours this morning, but confidence in reduction to VSBY is low. Guidance suggests MVFR cigs scatter out at KMHK around 20-22z this afternoon, but are likely to hold at KTOP/KFOE. Storms are expected to form along a front this afternoon. Exact location of storm development remains unclear; storms may form near KMHK before forming a line and impacting KTOP/KFOE between 23-02z. Cigs are expected to return to VFR at all sites with weaker winds late in the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.