textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend begins today through Thursday, with warm and dry conditions increasing fire danger each day

- Highs Wednesday and thursday nearly 30 degrees above normal

- A strong front moves through on Thursday but chances of accumulating precipitation are small

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The cooler high pressure that settled over the state on Monday is shifting off to the east, with southerly return flow on the back side of the high taking its place. The strong and persistent dome of high pressure over the Southwest holds strong into late week, advecting much warmer and drier air into the state. Highs today will approach low 70s,and quickly become upper 80s near 80 for Wednesday and Thursday. Winds today through Wednesday are not strong, but the low dewpoints will keep daytime RH values low and will exacerbate fire weather concerns. Thursday is likely to bring a few hours of very warm temperatures and low RH just ahead of the incoming front as the area mixes deep into the dry air. The front itself races across the state by the evening hours, and brings a chance for showers, however the moisture profiles are paltry and chances for a quarter inch of rain per NBM probabilities are less than 20% northwest of a Topeka to Emporia line, and only slightly higher (near 30%) to the east.

The front does however bring highs much closer to normal on Friday and Saturday, with another warming trend Sunday into early next week. The front itself drops all the way into the Gulf over the weekend, and should be able to increase the moisture in the return flow as the high advances east, and bring a rain chance late in the forecast. Extended models are also trending toward a breakdown of the southwest high and an upper trof moving into the West Coast by the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Made some small adjustments to winds and added some low end gusts from 15z onward, as this is about the highest the well mixed boundary layer will produce. Winds from the southeast at issuance will become southerly by mid morning. Will likely add a group to take gusts out but can wait until next issuance.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Temperatures are on the rise and RH values on the decline for the next several days. Winds are less of a factor, generally 5-15 mph, but become a big player on Thursday as the front races across the area and brings gusty winds around 30 mph out of the south ahead of it, with gusty north winds also behind it. Would also expect a few hours of increased heat and even lower RH as the area deeply mixes just before the front passes.

A reprieve for the weekend with cooler temperatures but the warmth returns next week.

CLIMATE

Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Record High Temperature for March 25

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 91 (1907) 89 Concordia 92 (1907) 91

Record High Temperature for March 26

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1910, 1991) 91 Concordia 86 (1907) 85

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.