textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Late August into early September heat wave commences this weekend through most of next week with highs in the middle/upper 90s. Peak heat indices are around 100 degrees each afternoon from Saturday through at least next Friday.
- Pattern shift next week brings slight chances for showers and storms, mainly over far northern Kansas.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Mid level heights are gradually building east this afternoon as the expansive ridge is progged to shift towards the southeast CONUS this weekend. Isolated storm chances are below 10% this afternoon given the stout 700 mb capping inversion, suppressing diurnal convection. Northern stream upper trough traversing the northern plains should generate another MCS eastward and away from the region overnight tonight.
As the sfc ridge axis slides eastward, lee troughing builds over eastern CO, increasing southerly winds Saturday afternoon from 15 to 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. Gusty sfc winds persist Sunday and Monday as mid level southwesterlies increase, enhancing warm air advection. Decent boundary layer mixing should lower dewpoints into the low and middle 60s as high temperatures reach the mid to upper 90s. Peak heat indices as a result hover in the low 100s through at least next Thursday for portions of eastern Kansas. Warm low records are at stake Sunday-Tuesday with forecast lows in the upper 70s. More uncertainty in temps exist towards central Kansas as a weak front approaches from the northwest beginning Sunday evening. Model ensembles are trending drier for Sunday evening through Tuesday as the front is further displaced west along with the more organized lift. Late in the forecast period (Wednesday-Thursday), residual cloud cover from overnight convection may signal slightly lower highs over northern Kansas.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
VFR conditions prevail. Marginal LLWS conditions set up overnight as the LLJ strengthens to 35-40kts. Surface winds are expected to remain around 5kts overnight with a gradual change in wind direction with height, favoring low-level turbulence over true LLWS. Winds become gusty from the south after sunrise Saturday morning.
CLIMATE
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Record highest minimum temperature information:
Record Forecast August 30 Topeka 79, set in 1932 76 Concordia 78, set in 1951 79
August 31 Topeka 77, set in 1912 and 1947 78 Concordia 81, set in 1947 78
September 1 Topeka 81, set in 2011 78 Concordia 80, set in 1913 77
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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