textproduct: Topeka

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog potential late tonight into Monday morning.

- Warm and benign conditions Monday through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Overall little change seen in latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. Broad upper ridging over the southwest states keeps a modest northwest flow pattern in place over the central Plains through the work week. The weak front that moved through overnight was well south of the area at midday today with modest surface high pressure over eastern Nebraska. Daytime temperatures and dewpoints appear to be warmer and drier, respectively, than NBM progs again today and have trended values in this manner over the next few periods. Despite this, tonight brings another night of potential ground fog development given light winds and clear skies as ground conditions remain damp. Have mentioned patchy fog formation for the bulk of the area with some support from guidance, especially the RAP. Any fog should dissipate by mid-morning Monday with southerly winds returning and plenty of sun for another mild day and a warmer Tuesday.

Another weak front looks to sink south into the area Wednesday with some solutions producing light precipitation mainly just north of the area Wednesday night into Thursday night as moisture profiles deepen slightly. Local chances below 10 percent seem reasonable at this time. The pattern changes somewhat late in the forecast with the ridge push east and breaking down. Dry conditions still seem on target at this range with above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Surface ridging will setup ideal radiational cooling, but also bring drier air into the terminals. The models are already to high with surface dewpoints. Still a decoupled boundary layer and the river providing a source of moisture is expected to allow some ground fog to develop in valleys. Otherwise the dry air will lead to VFR conditions once any fog mixes out.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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