textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The overall pattern remains favorable to maintain early spring-like temperatures through the period with mainly 50s for highs and 30s for lows.

- Potentially much warmer temperatures return to begin next week.

- A mainly dry forecast remains in place with the Saturday period being the most uncertain with a southern shift noted again in deterministic solutions consistent with previous forecasts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A split flow pattern remains in place with western cut-off lows developing then ejecting east on a more southerly track while the colder air and northern stream troughs remain well north of the area. The result over the central CONUS is semi-persistent ridging and periods of quasi-zonal flow and limited impacts from any quick moving weather systems (mainly southern stream in this case).

This evening and overnight, the cold front continues to push southeast of the area with the pressure gradient and CAA weakening as the high pressure cell expands into the area and becomes centered over the region into tomorrow morning.

Limited return flow into Thursday and a mostly dry atmosphere likely limits any opportunity for light precipitation to develop. Have reduced precipitation chances to less than 15%.

For the Saturday time frame, a southern shift of the south Pacific low pressure system appears to be the primary trend. This has allowed for an overall reduction in POPs. The NBM means have lowered from north to south across the area. Some ensemble members still have higher amounts possible so feel more comfortable to message the uncertainty is still high in the overall track of the eventual system. Certainly would expect that a more southerly track appears likely but more run-to-run consistency is desired at this time with ensemble members following suit to lower POPs further. Looks like rain would be the most likely p-type outcome across the entire area.

With no significant northern stream trough digging south through the period, expect that the much above normal temperatures for highs and lows hold. Will perhaps once again be watching for near-record temperatures into the beginning of next week and heights rise and southerly flow persists across the central CONUS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 513 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The current north winds will become light and variable by late evening as high pressure moves overhead, staying light through the rest of the period. VFR conditions continue, with just scattered high clouds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.