textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot through the bulk of this forecast with heat indices commonly reaching 100 to 105.

- Gusty south winds today diminish slightly tonight.

- Mainly dry through Friday but increasing chances late Independence Day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Over the next several days, the upper high over the Ohio Valley slowly moves off to the southeast while an upper trough shifts northeast from the northern Rockies into south-central Canada. This keeps southwest flow in place with somewhat of a dirty ridge resulting with some cirrus overhead and perhaps a few weak waves in the stronger southwest flow from central Mexico northeast. Temperatures should remain fairly consistent though dewpoint values are progged to come down somewhat, which seems to match mid-day observations upstream. Heat indices are still expected to peak around 105 today but not be quite as hot Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to somewhat drier air. Overnight temperatures look to remain rather warm with a moderate low-level jet and some high cloud keeping the boundary layer mixed. See Climate section below for record highest- minimum temperature details. The heat may build again late in the week into Independence Day as more zonal flow develops and brings warmer air into place. Questions in how hot conditions will be remain so have not expected the Warning yet, but there is some potential for Friday and Independence Day being the hottest of this stretch. Wind gusts around 45 MPH have been experienced in small portions of north-central Kansas today but speeds should back off as surface low pressure moves off to the northeast from central Nebraska.

Thunderstorm chances continue to look low over the next several days. Convection may form to the southwest in the deeper moisture to the southwest and to the northwest near the surface low but potential for activity in either area making it into the local area are remote. Chances may increase slightly Wednesday into Thursday as the upper ridge moves off leading to greater weak wave potential. Greatest chances look to come around Saturday night with decent model agreement on an upper wave moving east into the northern and central Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Similar to last night, south winds will likely lessen a bit overnight, but should stay gusty enough to avoid LLWS. Gusts most of the time will be 25-30 kts, especially before sunset today and again tomorrow afternoon. Ceilings stay VFR throughout the period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature

June 29 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1936, 2018) 79 Concordia 79 (1911, 1931, 1934, 1936, 1990, 2011) 79

June 30 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 77 (1911, 1917, 1931 1933, 1970, 2020) 80 Concordia 79 (2011) 80

July 1 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 82 (1933) 77 Concordia 86 (1933) 76

July 2 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 78 (1925) 77 Concordia 78 (1974) 75

July 3 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 76 Concordia 80 (1934) 75

July 4 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1911, 1969) 76 Concordia 82 (1934) 76

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056- KSZ058-KSZ059.