textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Strong and severe thunderstorms could occur late this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are the main concerns.

-Gusty winds of 40 to 45 mph expected today.

-Temperatures trend cooler into the middle of the week, but remain seasonable.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Severe weather, including damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, remains a concern for this afternoon and evening as a well advertised strong system approaches from the west. At 08Z today, water vapor imagery showed a deep mid-level trough stretching from central Montana into the Four Corners region, and a corridor of high water vapor content into western KS and the Northern Plains within the southwest flow ahead of the trough axis. H5 and H7 VWP at DDC sampled a 50+ kt jet. Sfc low pressure was noted over the far northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska stateline, and a cold front trailing to the south. Morning and midday impacts from this system as it progresses east-northeast will be increasing sfc winds and an initial round or two of rain. Sfc gusts quickly pick up this morning and are likely to reach 40 to 45 mph through midday. A batch of rain will also move west to east through the area this morning, reaching far eastern KS around 18Z. Showers may mix down stronger winds aloft, but severe weather is not expected until later in the day.

Moisture advection increases dew points into the upper 60s ahead of the cold front this afternoon, but mixed layer instability still appears to be limited by cloud cover and is expected to remain less than 1000 J/kg. However, given the strong wind field associated with this system, the environment within the warm sector will consist of around 50 kts of effective shear and 200+ m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. So, by mid-afternoon, more robust thunderstorm development is expected in central/south-central KS. Any initial discrete supercells could quickly evolve into clusters or line segments as they quickly race north-northeast, and eventually into far eastern KS this evening. The tornado threat will be greatest where storms can remain discrete, but there is also at least a low probability of QLCS spin-ups given the magnitude of the bulk shear parameters. Damaging winds will also be a concern, especially with bowing line segments. It is also worth mentioning the heavy rainfall potential with pwats expected to exceed the daily max of 1.4 inches, however fast storm motion should limit the flooding threat. The severe threat should then diminish into the late evening hours as instability wanes.

The cold front doesn't entirely move through the area until midday Tuesday with the upper low spinning over the area. A few lingering showers are possible and temperatures will trend cooler and more seasonable into the middle of the week. Even so, nighttime temperatures look to remain above freezing for the foreseeable future, and POPs remain less than 10 percent until this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1115 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Multiple aviation hazards are expected this period as a strong system impacts the area. MVFR CIGS and gusty winds settle in overnight. Gusts increase during the daylight hours and could approach 35 kts at times. A few rounds of rain/storms are also anticipated, the first of which could impact terminals during the morning into midday. A stronger round of storms are then expected Monday evening.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.