textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch continues with one last round of heavy rain expected today. Widespread additional amounts of 0.5" to 1.5", isolated 3" amounts.

- Dry after tonight. Cool temperatures for the weekend then gradually warming into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Our deep upper low responsible for this very active and rainy pattern continues move east across the southern High Plains, steadily weakening as it does. At the surface, low pressure is over southwest KS, beginning to drop southeast as a cold front pushes into north-central KS. We continue to see heavy showers redevelop along and behind this frontal boundary. Mentioned in yesterday's discussion that Tuesday evening's sounding at KTOP showed 2.05" of PWAT, tied for second highest on record for any sounding after September 25. Well Wednesday evening's sounding took that up a notch with 2.22" of PWAT, highest on record after 9/25. Very telling for how efficient some of these storms have been at producing rain. Many places across northern KS from Sabetha to Concordia have already seen 2.5-5" of rain over the past 36 hours.

As the front pushes farther southeast throughout the day, expecting additional showers and weak thunderstorms to develop along and behind the boundary. Similar to the past couple days, the high moisture and repeated generation of convection may result in locally heavy rain, including areas of east-central KS that haven't seen quite as much yet. Expecting an additional 0.5 to 1.5" for most places, with isolated totals of around 3". The front looks to fully clear the area by 0z, allowing rain coverage and intensity to steadily wane over the evening as brisk northeast winds advect drier air southwards.

The remainder of the forecast period looks a beautiful and quiet stretch of October weather as northwesterly flow persists across the Central Plains. On the periphery of strong Canadian high pressure, strong surface ridging moves across our area Friday into early Saturday and again Sunday into early Monday. This will keep temperatures a bit cooler than average through Monday. Mostly clear skies will allow highs to climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s each day, with crisp overnight lows in the 40s to low 50s. Does look like we'll see a bit of a warming trend for the middle part of next week as upper ridging strengthens over the central Rockies, but dry weather should persist.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Compared to observations, guidance continues to be too low with ceilings ahead of the cold front. So will keep ceilings VFR until later in the morning as the front begins to move southeast through the main terminals. This will be when MVFR to IFR ceilings become more likely. Also expecting an increase in showers and thunderstorms as the front approaches late morning and early afternoon, becoming lighter by the late afternoon and evening. Winds stay light and generally southeasterly tonight before switching to the north/northeast 10-15 kts behind the front.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011- KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035- KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.