textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers are possible across the southern counties of the forecast area this afternoon and Tonight. And a few showers are possible across the northern counties Tonight.

- Expect fall temperatures this afternoon along with cloudy skies. The cooler temperatures will continue into next week with highs in the in the middle 60s to lower 70s. - Widespread storm chances return by late week accompanied by another cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Early this afternoon water vapor satellite imagery along with upper air analysis showed a low amplitude upper level Trough across WY and CO. An upper level trough was lifting northeast across IL. An upper level ridge extended from the lower MS River Valley southwest into south TX. A more amplified upper level trough was located across the eastern Pacific, west of CA.

the 18Z surface map showed a surface cold front extending southwest from New England across the OH River valley, then southwest across northeast OK, extending farther southwest across the southern TX PNHDL into northeast NM. Temperatures at noon were in the mid to upper 60s north with mid to upper 70s along and south of I-70.

Today through Tonight:

The H5 trough across WY into northern CO will shift east. The stronger ascent will be across NE ahead of the H5 trough axis, but the southern extent of the ascent may cause a few showers across the northern counties of the CWA Tonight into early Monday morning. The southern counties may see a few showers this afternoon into the early evening hours. The stronger isentropic upglide will be across southern KS but there maybe just enough ascent for a few rainshowers to move across areas along and southeast of I-35. Most CAMs do not show much shower activity across the CWA. Late tonight a complex of storms across southeast CO will move east but should weaken before reaching the southwest counties of the CWA by early Monday morning.

Skies will be cloudy Today, so afternoon highs will not get much warmer then current temperatures in the 60s north and 70s south.

Monday through Wednesday night:

Temperatures will remain cool with mid to upper 60s north and lower to mid 70s south. The southern stream H5 ridge will amplify across eastern TX into OK through midweek. However the surface front will push south across central TX and then become stationary. I cannot rule out an isolated shower during this period, since a few mid-level perturbations may over the H5 ridge axis and provide enough ascent for isolated showers.

Thursday through Sunday:

The extended range models are in good agreement Moving an H5 trough onshore across the Pacific northwest with a series of mid level perturbations lifting northeast across the Plains Thursday through Saturday. . A surface cold front will be slowly moving southeast across the state of KS. Expect chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday night. The highest PoPs may occur Thursday night into Friday where a combination of isentropic lift and ascent ahead of an H5 perturbation will lead to widespread showers, with a few thunderstorms. Sunday morning the surface front will push southeast of the CWA, bringing an end to the rain chances. The front will be more of a Pacific front, so it may be a few degrees warmer on Sunday with more insolation. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the mid to upper 60s north to lower to mid 70s south. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be a bit warmer with mid 70s north and lower to mid 80s south.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

MVFR conditions will continue through this afternoon. After sunset ceilings will lower to 1000-1500 feet and may drop down to IFR criteria after 8Z SUN through 15Z SUN. There may also be some patchy fog developing after 6Z SUN.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.