textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- There are a couple chances for thunderstorms over the weekend with a risk for severe storms.

- Sunday looks to have a high probability for severe weather late sunday afternoon and Sunday night. But there remains some variability in the details.

- Unsettled weather with seasonal temperatures is forecast by the middle of next week. But the severe thunderstorms risk will remain well south across Texas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Late this morning, water vapor satellite showed an upper level low over south central Canada with an upper level trough axis extending southwest across the Great Basin. A northern stream mid level jet of 50 to 60 KTS extended from the Great Basin east-northeast across NE and SD. A southern stream mid level jet extended from southern CA/northwest Mexico, east across TX/OK into the lower MS River Valley.

The 17Z surface map showed a cold front extending from western MI, southwest across southern MO, then southwest across eastern and southern OK into the southern TX PNHDL.

Today and Tonight:

A surface ridge of high pressure that extended southward across KS will shift east of the area late Tonight. The upper low over south central Canada will fill as it lifts northeast into into north central Canada.

Expect mostly clear skies, with northeast winds of 5 to 15 MPH. The winds will veer around to the east, then southeast through the night into Saturday morning. Highs Today will range from the mid 60s northeast to mid 70s southwest.

Saturday through Saturday night:

The H5 trough across the Great Basin will phase with a southern stream H5 trough moving east onto the northwest Mexico coast line. As the west-southwesterly mid level flow increases across the central Rockies a lee surface trough will develop across the southern high Plains. The true surface warm front will be lifting northward from northern TX into southern and central OK. A dry line will shift east into western OK. A weak cold front will push southward across western KS.

Most CAMs along with deterministic models show show a mid level perturbation lifting east-northeast across southwestern KS into northeast KS by 00Z SUN. The ascent ahead of the perturbation along with weak convergence along the surface cold front will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms across north central KS. These showers and storms will shift east for locations north of I-70. There may be enough residual Gulf moisture for MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG, and effective shear of 40 KTS could cause some of these storms to be severe, especially across north central KS during the afternoon hours. The primary hazard will be large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. These storms may weaken during the evening hours as we lose surface heating.

Late Saturday night, the H5 trough across northwest Mexico will lift northeast across AZ. As the southwesterly mid level flow increases across the central Rockies, the lee trough will deepen across the southern high Plains. A low-level jet will increase and richer moisture will be advect northward. A few isolated elevated thunderstorms may develop during the early morning hours of Sunday. These storms will be elevated and may produce severe size hail.

Sunday though Monday:

The H5 trough across the southwestern US Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Plains Sunday night into Monday morning. A surface dryline will push northeast from the TX PNHDL into western OK and southwest KS Sunday afternoon. Discrete supercells may develop along the dryline and shift northeast across portions of south central and central KS. The discrete storms will congeal into a line of storms ahead of the dryline/Pacific front as DCVA overspreads the plains ahead of the H5 trough axis. The line of storms will move east across the CWA during the late evening and overnight hours. I cannot rule out a few storms in the far southern counties of the CWA Sunday afternoon.as a surface warm front move northward across eastern KS. Some of these storms, if they develop, may be severe.

Overall, the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be ahead of the Pacific cold front during the late evening hours across north central KS, then this line will shift east across the CWA during the early morning hours of Monday. The effective shear will be 45-55 KTS, ML/MU CAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG. The NAM12 forecast has curved low- level hodographs. But if there is a line of storms, the primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts but isolated supercell structures within the line may provide a chance for large hail. Also, if the sfc-3KM shear becomes more perpendicular to the line (QLCS), then mesovortex tornadoes embedded within the line may be possible. If the line initially remains more scattered with convection, then there will be a better chance for supercell thunderstorms across north central and north central KS, before the storms congeals into a line.

The line of storms should exit the CWA before Noon on Monday. Then skies should clear behind the front.

Monday night through Friday:

The surface cold front will move southeast across OK and remain nearly stationary across central TX. A secondary H5 trough will move east across the central Plains Wednesday through Friday. These thunderstorms will not be severe as the surface front will remain well south of the cWA across central KS. Afternoon highs will be in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR TAFs are expected to continue with light winds slowly veering towards the east then to the southeast by Saturday morning. Mid level clouds will overspread the forecast sites through the afternoon Saturday. Some scattered thunderstorms may need to be added by late period, mainly at KMHK, but confidence in coverage for storms was too low to include at this time.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.