textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 7 PM this evening. Afternoon heat index values will reach 103-109 degrees this afternoon.

- Storms develop along a cold front late this afternoon into the evening, a couple of which could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard.

- Shower and storm chances continue into the day Wednesday. A storm or two could be strong to severe along and south of Interstate 35 during the afternoon.

- Relief from the excessive heat comes behind the front with temperatures closer to normal for the later part of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Mid-level ridging remains in place over the Central and Southern Plains early this morning, but change looms as a potent shortwave ejects east along the US/Canada border later today. In the meantime, the pressure gradient has tightened across the area and elevated surface winds have kept the boundary layer mixed, leading to warm overnight temperatures holding in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. Deep mixing and 850mb temperatures of 25-27 degrees C will result in another hot day with highs in the 100-105 degree range for most. Dewpoints will likely mix out into the low 60s across north central and central Kansas while dewpoints hold in the mid to upper 60s farther east. All-in-all, heat index values will reach 103-109 degrees this afternoon. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 7 PM this evening.

The aforementioned shortwave across the northern US will squash the mid-level ridge and push a cold front into the area this evening into Wednesday. Guidance is in good agreement in this front pushing into north central Kansas by around 5 PM. The best forcing is displaced north of the front, but frontal convergence will be sufficient to generate showers and storms along and behind the boundary. Shear is progged to be marginal (20kts), but storms could produce damaging wind gusts around 60 MPH given inverted-V soundings and high DCAPE values. Isentropic ascent and weak passing energy will continue scattered showers and storms overnight into Wednesday morning as the boundary slowly sags south across the area. A cooler airmass builds in behind the front, leading to a less hot day with highs in the 80s to low 90s on Wednesday. The pre-frontal environment will still be hot and favorable for some marginally severe storms by Wednesday afternoon, and guidance is again in good agreement that the front will still be across east-central Kansas by the early afternoon. Thus, areas south and east of the Kansas Turnpike could see a couple of strong to marginally severe storms. Highs in this area could also reach into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees. Will hold off on any extension of heat headlines as a faster front and/or precipitation and cloud cover could keep conditions cooler.

The front will push through the area by Wednesday evening, bringing in much anticipated cooler temperatures for Thursday! Highs in the 80s on Thursday will warm slightly into the upper 80s and low 90s on Friday before another shortwave and surface front move through the area Friday night into Saturday. There is a signal for an MCS to develop and push across the area during this timeframe, with enough instability and shear to support some strong to severe storms. Will need to monitor this potential over the coming days. Passing waves in the quasi-zonal flow lead to continued chances for precipitation into early next week. Long-range guidance has been suggesting a strong cold front push through in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. Temperature spreads are quite large still, but there is potential for temperatures to fall below-normal behind this front, bringing a more fall-like feel to the area. Uncertainty remains, so stay tuned!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail. South-soutwesterly winds become gusty by 14-15z and remain so through around sunset this evening. Chances for showers/storms near terminals increase near the end or just beyond this TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 8 Topeka 78, set in 1983 76 Concordia 77, set in 1947 & 1983 77

Record high temperature information:

September 8 Topeka 104, set in 2013 102 Concordia 102, set in 2013 104

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.