textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog will continue in parts of eastern KS and may spread through the night, ending mid-morning.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity are expected to start this week.

- Rain chances (40-60%) return mid to late week along with slightly warmer temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Overall weak flow continues across the area, and VWP data shows embedded perturbations moving south and east of the area, which were responsible for yesterday's rain. Upper ridging otherwise dominates the Four Corners region. The departing wave leaves behind subsidence and low-level moisture with Td depressions either at zero or a degree on sfc observations across the CWA. Visibilities at a half mile or less have been observed most prevalently in the more populated areas in eastern KS since late last evening, which is likely where there is more smoke from fireworks acting as condensation nuclei helping to create more dense fog. It's possible dense fog may spread beyond these areas as high clouds clear out through the night, but for now have decided to go with a small Dense Fog Advisory to cover areas that have seen more persistent and widespread dense fog. May need to expand if it does spread. Outside of the advisory, would still expect to see patchy fog, which could become locally dense in lower lying spots. Motorists should drive carefully this morning, especially where visibility may drop quickly over a short distance. Forecast soundings show a well established inversion that starts to mix out around 14z, so visibility should notably improve by around that time.

Early this week, more seasonable temperatures with slightly lower humidity should give us a reprieve from the oppressive heat of last week. We transition towards meridional flow aloft today and Monday as a shortwave trough amplifies to our east over the central Mississippi River Valley. Can't entirely rule out a few isolated showers or pop-up storms mid to late afternoon today as there does appear to be a enough of a subtle perturbation that could generate some spotty activity. If anything develops, it may be just east of the area where the better lift should reside along with slightly better 850-500mb lapse rates. Have a dry forecast for now, but with 10-14% PoPs. Otherwise, mostly sunny conditions with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast.

Heading towards the middle of the week, rising mid-level heights bring slightly warmer temperatures again, back to the low to mid 90s. This may be brief though, as the pattern starts to break down with shortwave energy across the Northern Plains helping to flatten the ridge and put quasi-zonal flow over the area. Embedded perturbations bring rain chances back to the forecast, mainly during the Wednesday night and Thursday night periods for the time being. However, predictability of these weakly forced systems tends to be low especially this far out, so timing and placement will likely change in the coming days. Dry conditions look to return next weekend with the upper ridge building.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 557 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Dense fog (mixed with smoke from last night's fireworks) starts out the morning with clearing the rest of the period. TOP/FOE have been socked in with VLIFR vsby all night, while MHK has seen more patchy fog with some improvements to high-end IFR recently. Fog should lift around 14z per forecast soundings followed by VFR conditions and light northeasterly winds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ039-KSZ040.