textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The dangerous heat continues through at least Friday, potentially spreading into Saturday with max heat indices from 105 to 112 each afternoon.

- Confidence is moderate in a few severe storms impacting portions of central and north central Kansas late this afternoon and evening. Additional storms are possible Friday and Saturday evenings. The primary hazard is damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.

- Relief from the heat arrives to the region Sunday onward as highs cool back to seasonable values in the upper 80s/low 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Another overnight MCS is ongoing across Nebraska early this morning, amid weak zonal flow aloft along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. The trailing outflow boundary from the MCS may briefly shift winds mid morning and increase mid level clouds north of I-70, but otherwise the residual MCS stays north and east of the area. Sfc dewpoints starting out in the low/mid 70s with lows only dropping to the upper 70s should spell another dangerously hot afternoon. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect as apparent temps reach 110 in the afternoon. Near the highway 36 corridor, apparent temps are forecast to reach near 105 and with no obvious deterring factor in lower temps/dewpoints, decided to issue a Heat Advisory for the far northern Kansas counties this afternoon.

The west-east stationary boundary near the I-70 corridor becomes the focus for isolated severe storm development as a sfc low develops this afternoon. Low level convergence along the sfc trough will likely be overcome as forecast soundings mix the boundary layer to 600 mb. The last several CAMs build upon this confidence in development compared to the less organized setups seen the last several days. Given the decent DCAPE present and vertical wind shear, a few storms may be severe, producing damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. If these storms form, they may persist eastward into the evening, aided by the enhanced LLJ.

Periodic storm chances continue Friday and Saturday evenings as the frontal boundary lingers across the region. The southwest to northeast orientation of the jet and subsequent MCSs that form over the high plains suggest any residual storms would most likely impact north central Kansas. Highest chances occur late Saturday evening as a stronger embedded trough shifts a cold front southward. Widespread heat relief arrives behind the front on Sunday, dropping temps into the 80s through early next week. Shortwave perturbations embedded in the zonal flow aloft will support low-end precip chances next week, though organized severe weather probabilities are low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR at terminals as southerly winds increase shortly after sunrise from 10 to 15 kts sustained, gusting over 20 kts in the afternoon. Medium confidence in TSRA developing west of KMHK by 22Z, potentially impacting KMHK aft 00Z. Additional showers and TSRA may also impact KMHK by 04Z so have begun adding the mention with a Prob30 group aft 00Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Highest Minimum Temperature Records

August 13 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1913) 78 Concordia 80 (1943) 78

August 14 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1936) 78 Concordia 83 (1936) 74

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.