textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm today and especially tomorrow, then turning cold again by the weekend.

- Dry pattern continues. No notable precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Northwest flow remains in place this morning across the central US, but compared to the past few days the main ridge/trough axes have moved farther east. With southerly flow returning behind a departing area of high pressure, this will allow for a more notable warmup compared to our last couple weeks of chilly conditions. Highs climb into the 40s today, with an additional surge of WAA boosting temperatures into the 50s for Tuesday. Some spots may even reach 60 on Tuesday, especially western portions of the forecast area.

A sharper temperature gradient will set up across the middle part of the country Wednesday into the weekend, as the eastern trough/western ridge pattern amplifies. Confidence continues to increase on the general day-to-day location of this gradient, though small changes in the placement of upper waves will still likely lead to some waffling in exact temperature forecasts. That said, it looks like Wednesday and Thursday we'll be on the warmer side of the gradient, with the core of the cold staying to the north. This should keep highs generally in the 40s, close to average. Heading into the weekend, a stronger Canadian high will bring colder air farther south across the region. Still questions on exact temperatures, depending on the overall amplitude of the pattern, but confidence is increasing (>80%) that we'll see another day or two of sub-freezing high temperatures. In regards to precipitation, it appears we'll continue to stay dry. This pattern favors Alberta Clipper type systems tracking across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, staying mostly to our north. Can't rule out some weak frontogenetical band at some point through the weekend, but overall the pattern is not favorable for rain/snow chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Skies have briefly cleared at KTOP and KFOE this evening, but MVFR ceilings are moving back in from the west. Expecting a few more brief holes in these clouds, but once they arrive in a few hours expect MVFR ceilings to prevail through mid-morning before they scatter out. Otherwise, light and variable winds tonight become more southerly at around 10 kts during the day tomorrow.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.