textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- One more day of record setting temperatures across the area today

- Dry and windy conditions, along with dry fuels, have prompted a Red Flag Warning for late this morning into this evening.

- Low chances for a shower or storm as the front passes this evening and overnight but accumulating rainfall chances are very low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Another warm and breezy day anticipated across the area today, with the cold front driving across the area in the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of that, expect significant mixing to near 750mb to bring down very warm and dry conditions. Current forecast is a degree or so shy of the 25th percentile in the NBM, while the 50th percentile would bring highs along the I70 corridor in the 97-98 degree range, so the forecast could yet be a degree or two too low. Southwesterly winds ahead of the system may relax for a short period mid afternoon, but will quickly become strong northerly winds and will be breezy throughout the night. See fire weather discussion below. Rain chances remain low with locations along and east of the turnpike only in a 25-40% chance for a quarter inch of precipitation, with lesser amounts more likely. A few hundred j/kg of elevated CAPE could bring a rumble of thunder with the shower chances in the evening and early morning hours into Friday.

Highs tomorrow will be much closer to normal in the upper 50s, but will be breezy then dry as the airmass moves over the state. A slight warmup into the 60s for Saturday and winds veer around to the south, but the airmass remains very dry for much of the day. Highs rise back into the 70s for Sunday, with breezy southerly winds gusting 20-30 mph in the late morning and afternoon.

Better opportunities for rain come next week, with a series of systems moving out of the southwesterly flow over our area with some larger scale systems possible later in the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for today. Pattern is very hot and continued dry, with breezy southwest winds ahead of the front and strong north winds behind it, and is combined with antecedent dry conditions. May also see a window of a few hours in the afternoon as the front approaches along the I70 corridor where deeper mixing brings down even warmer and drier temperatures right before the winds shift. All factors indicated an upgrade to a warning for today.

Friday will be quite tricky as the incoming airmass is very dry. For the moment, the strongest winds are out ahead of the drier air, but will need to monitor for upgrades. Very high fire danger is expected. Temperatures slowly warm back up Saturday into Sunday, and become breezy again Sunday, but RH values should also slowly be on the rise as higher dewpoints make their way northward into the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period, with a breezy mixed column already in place and a similar one expected late in the period postfrontal. Winds stay elevated into the overnight hours with rain chances near the terminals after 03z.

CLIMATE

Updated at 245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2026

Record High Temperature for March 26

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1910, 1991) 94 Concordia 86 (1907) 87

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ054.