textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated storms possible later this afternoon and evening, some could be strong to severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, but some large hail will also be possible.

- Near daily storm chances persist through next Tuesday. Additionally, each day will have chances for some storms become strong to severe. See discussion below for further details.

- Near-record warmth accompanies storm chances with temperatures through next Tuesday in the low to mid 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a wave ejecting into the central Plains off the central Rockies, long wave troughing over the eastern CONUS, and stream of moisture coming off the Baja California region. The wave over the central Rockies has further deepened a surface cyclone over western Kansas that has helped to further tighten pressure gradients across the eastern portion of Kansas. This has led to gusty southern winds that continue to advect in moisture and warmer low level air. Surface obs across Kansas show the swath of 50-60 degree Tds stretching through central Kansas and beginning to shift east. Through the remainder of the afternoon, the baroclinic zone northeast of the surface low will tighten amidst the inverted surface trough, helping to increase low level convergence. Afternoon temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 80s across central and north-central paired with Tds creeping into the upper 50s will push MUCAPE values into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings depict very high LCLs and inverted V profiles so convective threats mainly look to be damaging winds with perhaps some hail later as storms move into richer moisture. That said, a strong EML still remains in place across much of the state so confidence in overall storm coverage is not high. Recent RAP analysis depicts mixing and increasing lift across north-central KS weakening the cap a bit by the later afternoon and with decent low level convergence along the surface trough, this could become a focal point for convective initiation. As storms move towards the KS/MO border this evening, expect them to become elevated and maintained by the LLJ. This should keep risks to large hail, mainly max sizes of 1-1.25".

After Thursday, near-daily chances for strong to severe storms will exist each day through Tuesday, although, storm coverage will not be widespread each day. By Friday, another fairly conditional storm set up will be expected with parameters for storms in place, but lack of obvious forcing and capping in place lowering confidence in location and coverage of storms. That said, by the afternoon, widespread lift associated with the right entrance region of a 500mb jetstreak north of Kansas will help to possibly erode some of the capping nearest the KS/NE border. This paired with low-level lift near the warm front in north-central KS could generate some convection within an environment of 30-40 knots of bulk shear, steep ML lapse rates and 2500-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Main hazards with any storms that can develop and strengthen will be damaging winds and large hail.

By Saturday and into early next week, a more interesting pattern begins to take shape over the central Plains as a deep trough digs out of the PNW, phasing with the southern gulf jet over Baja California. This will overspread the central US with southwesterly flow and continue to advect gulf moisture into the region. Saturday will see some weak embedded waves move into the region by the afternoon as afternoon parameters of 2500-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30- 50 knots of deep shear develop. Again, it could take some time for the environment to get rid of the EML in place Saturday afternoon. This poses uncertainty in overall storm coverage by late Saturday afternoon and evening. Better ejection of the main trough axis out west begins Sunday into Monday. The GFS is the fastest solution with the wave as the Euro and Canadian are a bit slower. The slower progression favors a high-impact day across eastern Kansas Monday opposed to Sunday as well as severe storm chances persisting into Tuesday afternoon by the time the upper wave passes to our east. The faster GFS solution depicts more of a squall line event Monday PM with a strong cold front where the Euro and CMC depict a dryline set up and isolated supercell potential. With strong jet dynamics aloft and ample gulf moisture available, severe weather looks likely in the Sunday to Monday timeframe, but exact details are still up in the air at the moment. Stay updated with the forecast in the coming days to catch the most recent updates.

In addition to the storm chances, near-record warmth will be expected across the area through next Monday before a cold front moves in by Tuesday/Wednesday. Expect afternoon temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s across the area with some across central and north-central KS seeing upper 90s. Temperatures following the cold front will go back towards normal with highs topping out near 70-80 degrees.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR through most of the period. LLWS likely with 45-50 kt winds sampled on VAD wind profiles, strongest core of the LLJ above 2000 ft. Impacts end west to east as the LLJ shifts east and veers. A shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out near KMHK through around 10Z given WAA and slight 850 mb wind turning focused SW of the area. Winds increase midday into the afternoon as a lee trough develops.

CLIMATE

Issued at 154 PM CDT Thur May 14 2026

Record High Temperature for Friday, May 15

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1944) 93 Concordia 91 (1944, 2012) 94

Record High Temperature for Saturday, May 16

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1931) 92 Concordia 93 (2019) 94

Record High Temperature for Sunday, May 17

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 92 (1907) 90 Concordia 96 (1996) 98

Record High Temperature for Monday, May 18

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 94 (1975) 91 Concordia 94 (1967, 1988) 93

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.