textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions continue through at least Wednesday. A Heat Advisory has been issued Tuesday afternoon for areas along and south of Interstate 70.

- Still trending a bit hotter late in the week as a surface front hangs across the area. Periodic chances for showers and storms come Wednesday night through the end of the week, with highest chances north of Interstate 70.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Quasi-zonal flow persists across the Central Plains this afternoon with the mid-level ridge flattened over the Four Corners and Southern Plains. Weak energy moving through the mean flow has kept a stream of mid and high clouds over the area today, limiting mixing and keeping temperatures several degrees lower than yesterday. Heat indices have still reached the 100-105 degree range. A well-mixed boundary layer will keep temperatures warm overnight, with lows around 80 degrees.

Expecting a rinse and repeat pattern through at least Wednesday with overnight-morning showers and isolated storms giving way to hot and humid afternoons. Cloud cover could be thick at times and limit the overall mixing/heating, but highs will hold in the mid 90s to low 100s. Even with mixing leading to slightly lower dewpoints, heat index values will reach 100-108 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Cloud cover and potential showers lead to some uncertainty in how hot temperatures will reach north of Interstate 70, but confidence is higher in heat indices around 105 degrees along and south of I-70. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for areas along and south of I-70. The Heat Advisory may need to be expanded north if cloud cover and precipitation appear to be less of a factor in afternoon temperatures.

A weak surface boundary sags into northern Kansas on Wednesday, leading to additional uncertainty in how hot temperatures will reach. South of the boundary, expect another hot and humid day with heat index values again in the 100-108 degree range. Again, cloud debris from morning showers could lead to lower temperatures and heat indices, but another Heat Advisory may be needed on Wednesday.

The aforementioned surface boundary could spark some showers or storms Wednesday afternoon/evening as additional energy ejects across the Plains. If storms develop (currently <10% chance), they will likely be high-based with inverted-V soundings supportive of damaging wind gusts. Periodic chances for showers and storms continue through the back half the week as the boundary holds across the area. Best chances will be along the nose of the LLJ during the overnight hours; guidance varies on exact position, but highlight far northern Kansas into Nebraska as the most likely area. With the front lingering across the area, hot and humid conditions will remain south of the boundary, potentially leading to 100-105 degree heat indices for southern portions of the area through at least Friday. A stronger cold front is progged to move through this weekend, bringing in slightly cooler air to begin next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail. South winds gusting around 20 kts will subside this evening, except at KFOE where gusts will be more consistent overnight. Some LLWS is possible overnight as the LLJ strengthens to around 40kts, but direction is largely unidirectional and favors low-level turbulence over LLWS. Gusts return late in the period at all sites.

CLIMATE

Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Highest Minimum Temperature Records

August 11 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 82 (1913) 80 Concordia 77 (2021) 80

August 12 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1913) 79 Concordia 80 (1943) 77

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ034-KSZ035- KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058- KSZ059.