textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Isolated light rain/snow mix still possible (15% chance) into this evening.

-Temperatures warm quickly Thursday, and even more so by late this weekend and early next week.

-Long range models are not showing much in the way of QPF through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Not much change to the previous forecast. Have maintained a slight chance for light rain/snow mix through the evening with some isentropic lift continuing behind a H5 trough axis and as surface high pressure moves into the area. No accumulations from any precipitation are expected. The rest of the forecast period is dry for now, with warming temperatures becoming the main focus.

High pressure moves south tonight while a surface trough axis moves through the northern plains and deeper into the Midwest. Stratus clouds should begin to scatter overnight as temperatures drop into the low 20s. Winds shift from the southwest to the northwest and increase into midday Thursday as the trough axis moves through.

The warming trend then commences tomorrow as pressure increases aloft and temperatures warm at H85 and H7. Highs during the afternoon should reach the mid 50s in eastern KS and low 60s in central KS. A cold front will move through northeast KS on Friday, but temps will be comparable to Thursday before slightly cooler air filters in late in the day. Thus, a quick setback in the warming trend will occur on Saturday, although not by much as most locations should still reach the low 50s.

Much warmer weather is then anticipated Sunday and early next week. Confidence is fairly high in temperatures reaching the 60s on Sunday and approaching 70 degrees on Monday given fairly low spread from models. Another cold front looks to impact us on Tuesday of next week. Current trends are for that one to move through dry.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

MVFR CIGS remain at airports through the afternoon and for much of the evening. Model trends have continued to push back timing for scattering of cloud deck, so have VFR delayed a bit longer into late this evening and early overnight. A low chance for light rain/snow mix is possible (15% chance) until around 02Z. Thursday morning, winds increase to near 10 kts from the west- southwest before a front moves through and shifts winds to the northwest toward the end of this period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.