textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry with near record highs forecast through Saturday.

- Critical fire conditions this weekend.

- A cold front will move through Sunday morning, leading to cooler temperatures Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record high temperatures are growing more likely Saturday as an upper-level ridge builds into the Plains. See the Climate section below. Saturday, at the surface a trough will develop to our northwest and the pressure gradient will steepen as a result. This will lead to breezy, warm and dry conditions. All ingredients for a dangerous fire day. See the Fire Weather section below for more details on the fire threat. A cold front will swing through Sunday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures (highs in the 60s and 70s) and breezy northerly wind. A cool day is expected Monday in the wake of the cold front. A rebound to warmer temperatures is favored for the middle of next week. No precipitation is currently forecast for the next two weeks.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 551 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR TAFs will continue at all sites through the period. Winds veer towards the north tomorrow afternoon behind a weak frontal boundary, but should stay below 10 mph.

FIRE WEATHER

Updated at 230 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Saturday and Sunday.

Relative humidity continues to fall each progressive day as we see warmer and temperatures and no additional precipitation. Humidity could bottom out around 10 percent Saturday afternoon with record high temperatures in the low to mid 90s possible. Sunday, a cold front will swing through and cooler temperatures will lead to slightly higher humidity, but still low enough for critical fire conditions, generally in the low 20 to low 30 percent range. Wind speeds have been the main factor keeping us from experiencing more critical fire conditions so far this week, but that appears to change come Saturday. Southwesterly wind will increase Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front with sustained wind speeds around 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph. Wind will shift out of the north behind the cold front Sunday morning and increase to around 20 mph sustained and gusts to 35 mph.

Burning is not advised today or tomorrow and certainly not Saturday or Sunday. Fire will spread rapidly and be very difficult to contain this weekend.

CLIMATE

Updated at 145 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Record High Temperature for March 20

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1953) 88 Concordia 83 (1916, 1934, 2011) 86

Record High Temperature for March 21

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 91 (1907, 1916) 92 Concordia 97 (1907) 92

Record Highest Minimum Temperature for March 20

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 56 (2012) 52 Concordia 50 (1894, 1935, 2011) 52

Record Highest Minimum Temperature for March 22

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 65 (1907) 61 Concordia 56 (1935, 1936) 55

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055.