textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record warmth and dry conditions continue through Monday.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday through Thursday, with highest chances (60-80%) coming Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

- More seasonable temperatures are forecast to return late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

An active synoptic pattern is present across the CONUS early this morning with remnants of Isaias lifting north over the Tennessee Valley, post-tropical cyclone Rachel approaching southern California, and a closed low across the Pacific Northwest. The forecast area remains wedged in between all of these features, leading to continued dry and abnormally warm conditions. Expecting almost a carbon-copy of yesterday for today, except with some passing high clouds. South-southwest will gust at 25-35 MPH and highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Elevated winds overnight tonight will limit radiational cooling and overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Slightly warmer 850mb temperatures build overhead on Monday, allowing temperatures to rise a few more degrees, topping out in the low 90s.

Predictability decreases dramatically beyond Monday. Guidance remains consistent in a surface boundary sagging into the area Tuesday, but the southern progression of the front is uncertain. Temperatures Tuesday will be dependent on the location of the front; highs will likely be near 90 degrees again ahead of the boundary, but only around 70 degrees behind the front. There is a signal for better upper-level support to go along with frontal forcing Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, leading to increasing chances for showers and storms. A few storms could be strong to severe Tuesday afternoon/evening given shear around 30 kts and MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the main hazards.

Ensembles continue to exhibit inconsistency and variability with the evolution of the western closed low. There is essentially a 50-50 split among GEFS, ENS, and GEPS members: one-half holds the closed low west of the forecast area through Thursday while the other half moves an open wave towards the Plains. There has been a trend towards the wave not entirely ejecting across the Plains and remaining farther west. Regardless of exact evolution, the frontal boundary in the region along passing energy (either in the form of the longwave trough or embedded waves in the southwesterly flow) will spark rounds of showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday. There could be some severe potential during this timeframe, but high uncertainty in the synoptic pattern leads to very low mesoscale predictability. PWATs of 1.5-1.75" are progged to be in place, supporting efficient rainfall with showers and storms. Ensemble means for total rainfall through Friday are 0.5-1.5" with highest amounts across southeast and east-central Kansas. The upper-end of guidance shows the potential for 2-3" totals in some spots, which could lead to some instances of flooding. Need to see guidance come into better agreement before becoming too concerned with the flooding and/or severe potential.

A strong wave is progged to dive southeast across the northern and eastern US late this week with surface high pressure building into the central CONUS. While temperatures are likely to fall back to more seasonable values, differences remain in exactly how much cooler it will be.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail with winds being the main aviation concern. Still think limited directional change in winds with height and a gradual increase in winds leads to low-level turbulence over wind shear tonight. Gusts return after sunrise Sunday before weakening again Sunday evening. A stronger LLJ increases the potential for LLWS Sunday night into Monday morning, especially in the absence of surface gusts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Record High Temperature Information:

October 11 Current Record Forecast ---------------------------------------------- Topeka 94, set in 1975 88 Concordia 94, set in 1975 90

October 12 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 93, set in 1899 and 2024 92 Concordia 93, set in 1899 93

October 13 Current Record Forecast ---------------------------------------------- Topeka 91, set in 1975 90 Concordia 90, set in 1975 84

Record Highest Minimum Temperature Information:

October 11 Current Record Forecast ---------------------------------------------- Topeka 68, set in 1928 65 Concordia 70, set in 1928 69

October 12 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 68, set in 1890 and 1899 70 Concordia 67, set in 1975 72

October 13 Current Record Forecast --------------------------------------------------------- Topeka 69, set in 1962, 1968, and 1975 70 Concordia 70, set in 1920 65

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.