textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-A few lingering light rain showers this morning and cooler temperatures forecast today.

-Temperatures quickly warm early in the workweek, and will be well above average by late week.

-Next cold front arrives Tuesday, but POPs remain somewhat uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Scattered rain showers could linger into the early morning hours today as an H5 shortwave trough moves over the area. A lack of instability and deep moisture will keep any rain that reaches the ground light. Conditions clear out this afternoon as a surface ridge settles in. High temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday, topping out near 70 degrees due to weak CAA and initial cloud cover. Another warming trend starts tomorrow as surface high pressure moves southeast and upper ridging expands over the central US. Highs warm back to near 80 degrees tomorrow, and are then expected to be back in the upper 80s by Tuesday.

Our next cold front arrives on Tuesday when an area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region. Instability will build through the day ahead of the boundary. Overall forcing looks fairly weak, but some guidance has scattered storms developing along the front during the late afternoon or early evening, mainly near and south of I-70. Currently, the NBM has the highest POPs south of I-35 after 00Z. Surface high pressure takes control again midweek, bringing temps back down a few degrees.

Southerly flow returns Wednesday night. There is some early indication that WAA could lead to thunderstorm development Wednesday night or early Thursday due to isentropic ascent, however, confidence is not high on precipitation chances. Confidence is higher on very warm conditions setting in late in the week. Temperatures are forecast to reach the 90s in central KS on Thursday, and into the 90s for the entire forecast area by Friday afternoon. Some long range models also shows a series of shortwaves aloft from Friday through next weekend. Guidance is still varied on actual placement and timing, making any confidence in POPs low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

There maybe a few sprinkles across the terminals through 14Z SUN. Expect BKN mid level clouds of 10000 to 12000 feet to continue into the early afternoon hours before skies become mostly clear after 00Z MON. Northeast winds under 10 KTS will become light and variable late this afternoon and through Sunday night.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.