textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Prolonged dangerous heat persists this week as afternoon heat indices peak from 104 to 110 through at least Friday.

- Low chances for storms Tuesday evening-Thursday, mainly over north central Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A 1059 mb mid level high pressure remains centered over the southeast this morning. Southwest flow towards the central plains is quiet this morning, other than some passing high clouds. Gusty southerly winds persist today, if not increase some as an mid level shortwave trough ejects to the northern plains, deepening the pressure gradient throughout the plains. Utilized the 90th percentile of the NBM along with latest trends of the HRRR to better grasp the downward momentum transfer in the low levels, resulting in wind gusts up to 40 mph throughout the daytime period. Latest runs from the CAMS hint at weak radar returns by late afternoon over northeast Kansas, coinciding with a weak embedded perturbation aloft. Forecast soundings in this area exhibit high cloud bases and overall 10% probability for isolated thunderstorms. If a storm were able to develop, gusty winds would be possible.

Being on the western edge of the dominant upper ridge in control this week, there are some indications for embedded vort maxes to spark elevated showers and storms over western Kansas beginning Tuesday evening, potentially impacting north central Kansas if they can hold together (20-30% NBM probability of >0.01 inches). Heading into mid week, the GFS ensemble clusters precipitation towards western and central Kansas Wednesday night-Thursday, while EC members shift the upper ridge further east and upper troughing further south, allowing for scattered showers and storms to impact portions of northeast Kansas in this period. This setup ultimately lends to some uncertainty on temperatures and cloud cover for >105 heat indices Thursday afternoon. The position of the aforementioned upper ridge over Texas Friday into the holiday weekend is highly variable at this time. This could spell the difference between dangerous heat with mostly dry conditions, versus humid conditions and scattered thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR at terminals with gusty southerly winds being the primary impact. Low probability for scattered MVFR clouds lifting northward around 12Z, passing just south of KTOP/KFOE. Surface winds overnight should remain just above 10 kts sustained, unidirectional from the south up to around 50 kts at 2 kft.

CLIMATE

Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature

June 29 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (2018) 78 Concordia 79 (1990) 79

June 30 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 77 (2020) 78 Concordia 79 (2011) 78

July 1 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 82 (1933) 77 Concordia 86 (1933) 75

July 2 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 78 (1925) 77 Concordia 78 (1974) 75

July 3 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 79 (2012) 76 Concordia 80 (1934) 74

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056- KSZ058-KSZ059.