textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20-45% chance for some light rain and perhaps a rumble of thunder Thursday.

- This stretch of cooler weather is forecast to remain with us into the weekend.

- Lows across north central and northeast Kansas could fall into the middle 30s Friday and Saturday with frost possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A broad upper trough was noted across North America. One wave was seen moving east across northern MN with an upper trough axis digging south towards MT. Another shortwave was propagating towards the Four Corners region. At the surface high pressure was centered over NEB with the cold front pushed south into central TX and AR.

The next chance for precip looks to be Thursday as models continue to show some mid level frontogenesis developing. This could bring a band of light precip to parts of the area. Instability looks to be pretty limited but mid level lapse rates may be steep enough for some rumbles of thunder. Otherwise chances for precip look to be 10 percent or less through the end of the week and much of the weekend as cool high pressure dominates the forecast. The slow moving upper low north of the Great Lakes is likely to allow occasional surface ridges to move through the central plains. This is expected to keep temps in the lower and middle 60s through Friday while lows flirt with the freezing mark. The forecast has some middle 30s across the northern half of the forecast area Friday and Saturday morning. So we'll have to keep an eye out for frost each of those morning.

Spread in the models increases for early next week as the forecast area is progged to be between an upper low north of New England and a second upper low moving into the desert southwest. Cluster analysis of the 12Z ensembles seem to be evenly split between height rises and warmer temps thanks to the southwest system and northwest flow with weak boundaries moving through on the back side of the northeast system. With not much direction from the ensembles, the forecast continues with the NBM mean. Precip chances would appear to be driven by more mesoscale features and whether there is a low level return flow or a dryer northwest flow. Given the spreads, POPs remain limited to 30 percent or less early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 541 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The RAP and NAM appear to be overdone with the boundary layer RH as they would have MVFR CIGS over the terminals now. Will follow the HRRR and RRFS forecast soundings which seem to handle the low levels better based on current obs. So VFR conditions should prevail with some mid level clouds passing overhead. Surface ridging over northwest KS is expected to keep a northerly wind through the day.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ020- KSZ021-KSZ034.