textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry tonight and most of Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s into the 90s.

- Chances for showers/storms return Wednesday evening and continue through Friday, though it won't be raining the entire time.

- Near to above average temperatures hold this week before heat builds early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery along with upper air analysis showed a broad upper level ridge extending from southeast AZ, northeast across the central high Plains. A low amplitude upper level trough was rounding the upper ridge axis across the central Rockies. A more amplified upper level trough was moving onshore across BC Canada. A second upper level trough was located across the southern Hudson Bay region of Canada.

The 17Z surface map showed a surface cold front extending from the western UP of Michigan, west-southwest across northern WI into central MN, then west across central SD into northeast WY. A lee surface trough was located across the central and southern high Plains.

This afternoon and Tonight will be mostly clear. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Wednesday through Thursday night:

The H5 ridge across the central high plains will flatten causing the mid level flow to become more zonal across the central Plains. A weak perturbation will move from the central high Plains east- southeast across KS. The combination of convergence along the surface trough in eastern CO, a surface cold front pushing south across western NE into northwest KS, and ascent ahead of the mid level perturbation will cause numerous thunderstorms to develop during the late afternoon and evening hours cross western KS/eastern CO. Several CAMs show these storms congealing into a complex of severe storms as they move east- southeast across west central KS and south central NE. RAP/HRRR CAMs forecast MLCAPE to increase to 2000-3000 J/KG by 00Z THU across west central and north central KS but the effective shear will remain below 30 KTS. If these storms maintain their intensity as they move east-southeast, then there will be a chance for damaging wind gusts across north central KS Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning. The Fv3 CAM shows a line of storms developing along a cold front across south central NE, that could move into north central KS earlier in the evening.

Even though the instability axis decreases slightly as it shifts east ahead of the thunderstorm complex, the outflow boundary may undercut the complex of storms as they move east across northeast and east central KS, which may decrease the wind gusts to below severe criteria. However, if a complex of storms/QLCS keeps up with the OFB, then northeast and east central KS may see isolated severe wind gusts through the early morning hours of Thursday.

Thursday, the front/outflow boundary will stall out across the far southern counties or just south of the CWA. The boundary will then extend west-northwest into western KS and eastern CO. The NAM12 and GFS forecast another complex of storms developing on the high Plains of eastern CO and moving southeast. At least the NAM12 shows the better theta-e axis extending from southeast KS, west-northwest into western KS and eastern CO. Therefore, the severe thunderstorm complex that develops in eastern CO, may move southeast and remain south of the CWA, though the southern counties may bet clipped by the severe thunderstorm complex late thursday night.

HREF/NBM ensembles show a 50 to 60 percent probability of receiving 0.5" or greater of QPF across the CWA from Wednesday night through early Friday morning.

Friday through Saturday:

The front may remain nearly stationary along the southern counties of the CWA. The chance for showers and thunderstorms may continue as weak mid-level perturbations move east-southeat across the central and southern Plains. The H5 ridge across the Four Corners region will begin to amplify northeast across NE/SD and the chances for showers and thunderstorms will diminish through the afternoon hours of Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday:

The H5 ridge will amplify across the northern and central Plains through Tuesday. The mid level winds will become easterly next week. TUTT lows may round the southern periphery of the H5 ridge axis along the Gulf Coast. The TUTT lows will provide enough ascent for thunderstorms across southeast and southern TX. The deep moist convection may block some of the richer Gulf moisture from advecting northward into the central Plains, thus dewpoints next week during the afternoon hours may remain below 70 degrees. Even with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s both Monday and Tuesday, the heat indices may only reach the upper 90s to near 103 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. If min temperatures fall below cross over temperatures, then some shallow ground fog may develop at KTOP around sunrise. Any shallow fog that develops wil mix out by 13Z WED.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.