textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms remains for late Tuesday afternoon to early Tuesday evening southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. Confidence is decreasing that storms will develop.

- Warm temperatures dominate, with near-record values possible Friday and Saturday.

- Several chances for showers and storms this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level trough across the northern high PLains. A broad upper level trough was located across eastern Canada, extending southward along the coastline of the mid Atlantic States. An upper level ridge was located across the western US.

The 7Z surface analysis showed a a cold front extending from western, MN, southwest across north central and southwest NE, then into northeast WY.

A second cold front was located from northern FL, west-southwest across the western Gulf. The true Gulf moist parcels were located across the eastern and central Gulf.

Today through Tonight:

The surface cold front will push southeast across NE this morning and will enter north central KS by 17Z. The front will progress southeast across the CWA through the early morning hours. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will attempt to develop along the front late this afternoon, as the cold front reaches I-35. Several CAMs do not show thunderstorms developing until after 00Z, when the front moves southeast of the CWA. However if a few thunderstorms do manage to develop late this afternoon across the southeast counties they may become severe, given an environment with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG and effective shear of 45-50 KTS. Therefore, if storms develop they may become sever with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary hazards. The HRRR forecast soundings across the CWA late this afternoon show a slight capping inversion between 750-700mb, thus this may explain the lack of deep moist convection ahead of the cold front on many of the CAM solutions. Even the HREF 2-5KM max updraft helicity has no paintball across the southeast counties of the CWA late this afternoon ahead of the front. My confidence now is very low that storms will develop along the cold front across the CWA. The norther Plains H5 trough will dig southeast into northern IA by late evening, thus the stronger ascent will be well northeast of the CWA. Highs Today will reach the mid to upper 80s, there's not much cooler air behind this front.

Wednesday through Saturday night:

The H5 ridge across the western US will shift east across the Plains on Thursday, then the mid level flow will become zonal. Split flow will develop with the main branch of the H5 jet across the northern Conus and a southern stream H5 jet across northern Mexico and Texas. AS southerly wind return residual Gulf moisture late in the week there could be a slight chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

Wednesday looks to be the coolest day with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. High temperatures on Thursday will reach the mid to upper 80s east, with lower 90s west. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week with lower to mid 90s. Highs Saturday will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s east with mid 90s west.

Sunday through Tuesday:

The extended range numerical models are in agreement with an H5 trough lifting northeast into the Plains and a surface cold front pushing southeast across the CWA Sunday night into Monday. The CWA may see a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through midday Monday. Highs sunday within the warm sector wil reach the lower to mid 90s.

Highs Monday and Tuesday will cool back into the upper 70s to lower 80s

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Winds will be southwest at 10 to 13 KTs with some gusts of 20 to 24 KTS ahead of the cold front. Once the front passes east of the terminals during the afternoon hours, the winds will become northwest at about 10 KTS. The winds will diminish through the night. May see a few CU develop ahead of the front with bases of 6,000 to 7,000 feet.

CLIMATE

Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Record High Temperature for May 15

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1944) 93 Concordia 91 (1944, 2012) 92

Record Highest Minimum Temperature for May 15

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 71 (1977) 66 Concordia 69 (1962) 63

Record High Temperature for May 16

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1931) 90 Concordia 93 (2019) 93

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.