textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-average temperatures through Thursday before mid to upper 90s move in by the weekend.

- Chances for rain/storms still seems low, but some small chances may come Thursday afternoon across far eastern Kansas

- Upper level ridge tries to break down a bit by next week, ushering in some small windows for precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows a very large and stout upper ridge over the central and northern Plains with the jet stream staying north of the ridge across the US/Canada border. The upper ridge has kept a surface high over northern Missouri and southern Iowa that has led to similar conditions over the past few days. This pattern is expected to hold for the remainder of the day today as light easterly winds and diurnal scattered cu remain common as highs top out around 90 degrees. Given the clear skies and light winds through the early morning hours today, cannot rule out some shallow fog across far eastern Kansas - mainly in low-lying areas.

By Wednesday, similar temperatures can be expected by the afternoon, but weak vorticity currently noted over the southeastern US is progged to shift west towards the southern Plains. This will usher in some very small chances for rain/storms across southeastern KS, but generally chances remain 15% or below. Better chances seem to come Thursday afternoon as mid-level energy takes a slight northern jog into Missouri. The subtle increase in mid-level lift and the addition of low-level flow returning back towards the south may be enough to generate some precipitation across far eastern Kansas. Outside these small chances for precip, the forecast will be fairly dry through the weekend. The low-level southerly flow persists into the weekend, helping to push warm 850mb temperatures across eastern Kansas each afternoon. Diurnal mixdown of 28-33C 850mb temperatures will push afternoon highs into the mid to upper 90s by Saturday through Monday - possibly some low triple digits across central and north-central KS. Heat indicies increasing back towards the low triple digits will become possible as Tds in the 65-70 degree range remain commonplace. The overall synoptic pattern does not appear to begin to breakdown until sometime next week as long range guidance depicts a troughing pattern digging south from central Canada. This would also open a window for some weak frontal boundaries moving across the Plains and an increase in PoPs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Some shallow ground fog that has developed at KTOP should burn off by 12z leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.