textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions are forecast to build into the region through the end of the week.

- There continues to be a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers and storms Thursday and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery showed a low amplitude upper low across west TX. A broad upper trough was located across the Hudson Bay region of Canada and extended southward across the Great Lakes into the OH River Valley.

A weak boundary extended along the southern states, westward into eastern TX, where it extend southwest into Mexico. A surface trough was noted along the lee side of the central Rockies. A broad area of surface high pressure was centered across western KY.

Today and Tonight:

The southern stream upper low across west TX will drift east and amplify across north TX by 12Z THU. Residual moisture will begin to return north through OK into southeast KS. However convection along the surface front across south central TX may prevent the richer moisture from advecting northward into the Plains. Late Tonight there may be some weak isentropic lift across the southeast counties for isolated to widely scattered showers to develop.

Friday through Wednesday:

A broad upper trough will move onshore across the western US late Friday. This may help to kick the low amplitude southern stream upper low northeast across eastern OK into central MO by 00Z SAT. The ascent may increase enough for scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms to develop across east central KS Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Northeast and north central KS may remain mostly dry as the better ascent remains closer to the upper low.

Once the upper low lifts northeast into MO, precipitation chances across the east central KS will decrease late Friday night into Saturday. The upper trough across the northwest US will shear apart as it lift northeast across the Great Basin and norther Plains. An H5 ridge will begin to amplify across the southwest US, with an H5 ride axis extending northeast into the central highs Plains. Saturday into Saturday night look mainly dry across east central KS, but with a weak capping inversion and richer moisture in place there could still be some isolated showers and storms.

Sunday through Wednesday:

Minor perturbations will round the ridge axis and shift southeast across the central and southern Plains Monday into Tuesday. This will increase shower and thunderstorms chances given rich moisture in place and a weak cap. The vertical wind shear looks weak, so I do not think we will see any severe thunderstorms. The ridge axis shift farther southwest into the AZ/NM border. A slightly more amplified H5 trough may move east across the Plains Tuesday into Tuesday night, so our best shower and storm chances may occur Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are in fair agreement.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Latest high resolution models keep any showers should to the terminals through 12Z THU.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.