textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return late this evening and overnight. The severe threat is very low, but heavy downpours, localized flooding and pea- sized hail may be seen with strongest storms.

- Several chances for severe storms remain in the forecast Saturday through next Wednesday. Each given day remains conditional, see discussion below for additional details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A cool afternoon continues across northeastern Kansas as a frontal boundary has stalled near the Oklahoma and Kansas border, keeping areas north in the mid 40s to low 50s. Majority of thunderstorm chances for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening should stay south along the frontal boundary, but some elevated showers may work up as far north as I-70. A brief downpour and light rain can be expected with anything that develops this afternoon with no threat for severe weather. By later this evening and overnight into early Saturday morning, a strengthening LLJ should develop across central Kansas. Increased isentropic ascent and convergence along the nose of the jet should produce elevated showers and thunderstorms across central, north-central and northeastern Kansas. ~500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear will be available for cells so cannot rule out some brief heavy downpours and possibly some pea sized hail in the strongest storms. Severe hazards are not expected. Some localized flooding may become an issue with PWATs around the 1.25" range - similar to 1 and 3 hour Flash Flood guidance in areas that saw 3-5 inches of rainfall Thursday night. HREF probabilities of rainfall over an inch are 15-30% with higher probabilities across north-central Kansas.

Efficient moisture advection will take place through the late morning and afternoon Saturday as low level flow returns to the south/southwest. This will usher in low to mid 60 degree dewpoints by the late afternoon. A very conditional risk for a severe storm will exist, generally after 3 pm, for all of northeast Kansas. The condition that is lacking is overall forcing to get a storm to develop. There are hints that a 40-50 knot 500 mb jet streak moving across southeast Nebraska that could help to get a storm or two going, but confidence is very low in this occurring. Outside this, the warm front will likely be well north of the area with no other glaring forcing mechanisms. The HREF reflects this as it gives a <10% chance of an updraft developing. That said, given the moisture advection through the day and slight cooling in the mid levels, if a storm can develop, especially across far northern Kansas, it could strengthen quickly given 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, 30 knots of 0-6 bulk shear and minimal SBCIN.

Low confidence in severe storm chances continue into Sunday with some waves embedded in southwesterly flow advecting over the Plains by the afternoon. The set up again looks conditional with CAPE and shear in place *if* a storm can develop. Most forcing comes Sunday morning into the early afternoon and seems to stay south of the area across northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. Rain and storm chances may still exist north of this area of mid level forcing, but uncertainty remains high with the overall severe set up. By Monday, the main ejection of the long wave western trough begins across the high southern Plains. Severe parameters once again increase to pose a risk for a storm becoming strong to severe, but models have been fairly adamant about low level capping and lack of forcing keeping storms from developing...another conditional risk. Perhaps the best chance for storms to develop with this large upper system comes Tuesday into Wednesday as we begin to see better height falls across the central Plains and a surface low tracking east of the Rockies. There are still timing discrepancies between long range deterministic and ensemble guidance with the GFS ejecting the upper low Tuesday night and the Euro slower with a Wednesday timeframe. Again, deep shear and afternoon instability will be present, but confidence in storm initiation this far out is still up in the air. Stay tuned for further forecast updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

IFR (Occasional LIFR) conditions will develop tonight, around 05z. A line of showers and thunderstorms will swing through the terminals from southwest to northeast beginning around 05z and ending around 15z. Confidence isn't high enough in intensity or coverage of storms to place a prevailing group in the TAF yet, but thunderstorms will be possible. Ceilings should start to lift toward MVFR after 18z.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.