textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather dominates through the upcoming week as strong upper ridging builds over the central US. Rain chances stay below 15%, with Wednesday looking like the most likely period to have any light precip potential.

- Heat builds late week into next weekend. Highs in the mid 90s are likely by Friday, while the hottest scenarios reach triple digits (30% chance). Heat indices near 100 are possible late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A strong upper anticyclone centered over the Four Corners region anchors the pattern, as water vapor imagery suggests broad subsidence and a dry airmass across the central Plains. The 12Z upper air analysis places northeast Kansas on the northern periphery of the ridge beneath weak northwest flow through the H5 level. At the surface, high pressure holds the main baroclinic zone well south of the area, with easterly low-level flow keeping a slightly drier airmass in place.

Through the weekend and into early next week, little changes. Mostly sunny skies, light easterly winds, and highs in the upper 80s to around 90 prevail while the surface ridge remains in control. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s with efficient radiative cooling may again support patchy dense river valley fog during the early morning hours, mainly along the Kansas River corridor.

The pattern evolution into midweek continues to favor the upper high retrograding toward the central Rockies with low-level flow returning from the south. This transition period around Wednesday offers the best, albeit still low, chance for a stray shower or storm as weak moisture returns beneath the repositioning ridge. H85 temperatures steadily increase to around 20C Wednesday onward, pushing highs into the low to mid 90s by Thursday and mid to upper 90s Friday into next weekend. The magnitude of the late-week heat remains the main forecast question. NBM temperature spreads next weekend remain wide, on the order of 9 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentiles, so while guidance gives roughly a 30% chance of reaching triple digits, confidence in any specific number is limited. Deeper afternoon mixing keeps dewpoints in the mid 60s, holding heat indices only a few degrees above air temperature, but probabilities of heat indices reaching 100 approach a coin flip at Topeka by next Saturday. Heat headlines may eventually be needed if the warmer

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through most of the period. Persistence forecast lends itself to possible river valley fog again early Sunday morning. Have mentioned with TEMPO group for brief IFR to LIFR vis under clear skies and winds going calm under the influence of the surface ridge that remains firmly in place. No other aviation concerns at this time.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.