textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Heavy rainfall and scattered flooding could occur as a system moves through Thursday and Thursday night.

-Heat then builds in this weekend and sticks around through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The main focus in the short-term is on the chance for heavy rainfall and flooding with a system moving through the area tomorrow into tomorrow night. Focus in the long-term then becomes building heat and humidity late this weekend and early next week.

Today, a mid-level ridge sits over the Desert Southwest as low pressure approaches Lake Superior. Northwest flow exists in between over the central US. One vort max and associated storm system has moved south and east of the area this afternoon. The rest of the day is likely to remain dry. Chances for rain increase slightly tonight when a weak perturbation in the flow may move over the area. Better chances for precipitation, however, enter the forecast tomorrow afternoon and evening when the upper ridge flattens and a more notable vort max tracks across KS. There remains some signal for heavy rainfall potential with that next system as it interacts with a moist atmosphere and pwat values around 1.8" -- above the 90th percentile of climatology. Coverage of precipitation will likely increase along a theta-e gradient across central KS throughout the day as a LLJ increases into the evening. There remains some uncertainty in exactly where the heaviest swath of precipitation will set up given continued model variability, but felt that a Flood Watch was justified near and south of I-70 where the higher QPF currently exists. A general one to three inches of rain is looking likely into Thursday night, from which excessive runoff could cause scattered flooding. Small creeks and streams, and possibly some larger rivers could again increase toward flood levels.

Rain moves out by Friday morning. POPs increase slightly again Friday night when another weak wave moves over the area, but thinking most locations will remain dry during that timeframe. Focus then shifts to a synoptic scale pattern change consisting of a large H5 ridge building over the eastern half of the US late this weekend and early next week. That ridge looks to hold over the OH and MS River Valleys through the upcoming week, which will keep hot and humid conditions in place. Daily heat index values are likely to approach or exceed heat advisory criteria of 103-105 degrees for at least a part of the area and headlines will eventually be considered as this timeframe approaches.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Low confidence in timing and coverage of thunderstorms during the day tomorrow, but slightly better potential for storms towards KMHK during the afternoon. Lower stratus looks to also build in tomorrow morning. Low-end VFR ceilings seem most likely at this point but MVFR ceilings could also occur for a few hours before rising some during the afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight become more easterly at 5-10 kts during the day tomorrow.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.