textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers continue this afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early evening with some clearing now just south of the area.

- Additional chances (although lower) continue off and on through the weekend. Saturday may see a chance for a brief window of isolated severe storms to develop. Confidence is low this far out.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly above normal through early next week with more chances for moisture return and precipitation by mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Water vapor imagery and the 12Z upper air analysis confirm the western CONUS cutoff low now centered over northern CA, with a broad mid- level ridge extending from the southeast through the northern Plains. A mid-level shortwave is lifting north through the central and southern Plains, driving the current round of showers and stratiform rain northward across the CWA. PWATs per SPC mesoanalysis of 1.70 to 1.90 inches across south-central Kansas, well above the 90th percentile, support efficient rainfall with brief heavy rates possible in the most intense bands. Overall, shear and instability remain unfavorable for severe storms but a few isolated storms may be possible late this afternoon into early this evening.

The cutoff low lifts northeast across the Rockies into the northern Plains Friday night through the weekend, bringing the better dynamics progressively closer to the CWA. Ensemble guidance keeps the better forcing and DCVA northwest of the area, but the base of the trough may provide sufficient ascent for additional rounds of showers and storms Friday night into Saturday, and again Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Overall shear may increase just enough into the 30 knot range by Saturday afternoon, with MUCAPE values progged above 1000 J/kg across much of the area. That overlapping area may support organized convection and some storms may approach severe limits, particularly Saturday afternoon. CIPS analog guidance places the primary severe signal over western Kansas, which keeps the highest threat west and southwest of the CWA, but this bears monitoring. Confidence in specific storm mode and timing remains limited.

Beyond Sunday, the pattern attempts to rebuild a ridge over the central Plains. A return flow pattern then re-establishes and another moisture surge by mid next week, but spread widening amongst the ENS, GEFS, and GEPS keeps confidence limited at that range. Temperatures climb through the upper 70s this weekend and into the mid to upper 80s early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 542 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Occasional showers will persist into Friday with showers forecast to become a little more widely scattered by Friday afternoon. Conditions are expected to deteriorate overnight as the boundary layer saturates. Think IFR CIGS will eventually move in with some gradual improvement Friday afternoon. Timing precip is based mainly off the latest CAMs. Have just prevailing -RA for much of the night trying to highlight when moderate to heavy precip might be with a tempo group. Can't rule out an isolated TS, but with lapse rates near 5.5 C/km it should be the minor weather element overnight.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.