textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather with relatively cool temperatures are forecast through the middle of the week.

- The better chances for precipitation (up to 80%) are expected Wednesday.

- Dry weather should return for the weekend with temperatures warming up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper high over AZ and NM with ridging extending into the Upper Midwest. An upper low was noted over northern Manitoba with a shortwave rotating through the northern Rockies. Surface obs had low pressure along the lee of the central Rockies with general high pressure along the MS river valley. This favored continued southerly low level flow.

In the short term, energy moving across the northern plains is expected to flatten the ridge and allow for some shortwave energy to impact the forecast area through the middle of this week. Models show the better dynamics and chances for precip to be late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, then again Thursday. There may be some risk for severe storms Wednesday depending on how the boundary layer destabilizes along a surface boundary over east central KS. But better flow is expected to increase bulk shear and potential for organized updrafts. This will be something to keep an eye on. The larger spreads in the short term are for highs Wednesday which will be dependent on how fast the front pushes south along with cloud cover and precip. Started highs on Wednesday with the blend and then tightened the gradient by cooling highs across the north and raising highs for the southern counties. Have kept some slight chance POPs across north central KS for Tuesday morning as models show some convergence along a sagging boundary. Although the low level jet is progged to veer and weaken as this boundary moves towards Republic county. So the slight chance POPs look appropriate for now.

By Friday the ensembles are in reasonable agreement across the central plains and show the upper ridge redeveloping over the central Rockies. This is expected to push the mean westerlies back to the north of the forecast area. This pattern would favor dry weather with temps trending warmer through the weekend and the NBM shows this scenario with typical spreads for days four through eight. One thing to note is the operational solutions are coming in much warmer for highs Sunday and Monday as 925MB temps warm to around 33C. Adiabatically mixing these kinds of temps to the surface would suggest highs more likely around 100 degrees while the NBM has kept highs in the middle 90s. This would be closer to the twenty fifth percentile of the 00Z ensembles while the seventy fifth percentile has highs in the low triple digits. So there is some room for highs to trend hotter by the end of the forecast with heat impacts becoming a greater concern.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR at terminals as southeast sfc winds subside below 10 kts this evening and overnight. Isolated showers are possible with the increase in mid clouds aft 12Z. Additionally, short term guidance is in better agreement with the fropa impacting KMHK around 21Z, veering winds to the northeast at 10 to 15 kts sustained while KTOP/KFOE may see the wind shift just beyond the forecast period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.