textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Typical spring time weather is expected through Saturday with occasional showers and afternoon temperatures in the 70s.

- Dry weather is forecast for Sunday and Memorial day. Temperatures should warm into the lower and middle 80s.

- Mild weather is chances for afternoon showers and storms are forecast through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper trough over the northern and central Rockies. At the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure was gradually moving to the east of the area while MSLP slowly fell across the central high plains.

For tonight through Saturday, the forecast area is expected to remain under the influence of the upper trough to the northwest of the area. Models show the better dynamics coming out of the base of the trough remaining northwest of the forecast area. But they also show subtle shortwave energy passing across northeast KS with decent moisture over the region. So the forecast continues with some chances for precip. The better chances for rain look to be as a weak cold front moves into the region late Friday and into Saturday morning. The good news is models do not show much destabilization occurring with a cool and damp airmass remaining in place. There could still be some lightning and thunder with mid level lapse rates between 6 and 7 C/km. But overall the severe risk appears to be low. Clouds and precip chances combined with the weak ridge moving in late Friday should keep temps relatively cool. Highs Friday and Saturday are forecast to be in the 70s.

The 00Z ensembles showed a better signal for dry weather than not on Sunday and Memorial day as mid level heights rise. And the NBM also keeps POPs generally less than 20 percent. Spreads in the ensembles are generally pretty narrow between the twenty fifth and seventy fifth percentiles indicating relatively good predictability. So don't see much reason to deviate from the NBM/WPC forecast in the extended. Overall models show a weak upper level ridge developing over the central US with weak disturbances over the central plains within a weak flow regime. This would suggest more of a summer time pattern with chances for diurnally driven precip. This signal also appears in the 00Z ensemble data. So the forecast has chance POPs in for the afternoon hours each day from Tuesday through Thursday. Temps are expected to gradually warm into the 80s through the middle of next week thanks to the higher mid level heights and lack of surface fronts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Continued low level easterly flow is expected to keep MVFR and eventually IFR CIGS over the terminals through Friday morning. Confidence is increasing that CIGS will lower to IFR around sunrise. CAMs keep most of the shower activity away overnight with some marginally better forcing impacting the area around 12Z. May include a PROB30 for light SHRA after 12Z.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.