textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances develop Wednesday night and continue through the weekend, highest south of I-70 where perhaps totals of around a quarter to half inch are possible Thursday through Saturday.

- Severe weather potential remains very low with best chances south and southwest of the region.

- Near-average temperatures are expected Thursday through early next week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a highly amplified trough over the Pacific Northwest into northern California, with a broad surface high anchored to the northeast. The 12Z upper air analysis confirms a building omega-type pattern with cutoff low likely developing over the western CONUS, downstream ridge amplifying across the northern Plains. Weak, meandering flow over the CWA results.

Balance of today and much of Wednesday remain dry and warm. Southerly return flow drives highs into the middle to upper 80s across the southern CWA, with middle 80s to the north.

Isentropic ascent increases along the 300K surface Wednesday night into Thursday as the moisture axis lifts northward. Precipitable water values climb above the 75th percentile for late May, supporting shower and storm chances concentrated during the overnight and morning hours mainly. The best chances overall remain south of I-70 across central into east-central areas with notably lower coverage across the northern areas. Shear remains disorganized throughout with skinny type CAPE profiles, favoring likely more stratiform type rainfall with embedded convection over any organized storm mode. Severe weather potential appears limited at this time with deeper moisture and instability well south of the area and along the front range.

The unsettled pattern persists Friday through the weekend as the western cutoff slowly pivots and fills and energy continues rounding into portions of the central and northern Plains. Chances remain hit-or- miss and diurnally driven with no well-organized forcing expected. Thus QPF remains low areawide, though south of I-70 carries the better moisture depth and should see the higher totals of the period. Highs settle near average in the upper 70s to low 80s.

The extended period features spread widening amongst the ENS,GEFS, and GEPS with no clear clustering across solutions confidence remains limited beyond early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions through the period with a light SSE breeze calming into the overnight period. A few high clouds increase across the area which would limit ground fog potential depending on overall layer thickness. Thus, not going with shallow ground fog mention at this time. No other aviation hazards forecast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.