textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-A few storms could move into northern Kansas from Nebraska late this afternoon or this evening.

-Storms that move into the area will be capable of producing strong wind and small hail.

-Occasional waves in the flow aloft will keep at least slight POPs in the forecast at times this weekend and next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The large mid-level ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region with northwest flow persisting over Kansas. Prior to sunrise this morning, a batch of storms associated with a disturbance in the flow is impacting portions of western and southern Kansas. If the cirrus shield associated with those storms clears over the area before sunrise, some patchy and shallow fog could develop in the river valleys. Fog is not expected to be as dense or widespread as yesterday morning and should burn off quickly. Later in the day, scattered storms that form near a surface boundary in Nebraska could track southward toward northern Kansas. Forcing will wane with southward extent, but any storms that make it into northeast Kansas late this afternoon or early this evening will encounter steep mid- level lapse rates, around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and over 1000 J/kg of DCAPE. Thus, strong wind gusts could occur with storms. Small hail will also be possible, especially with any discrete storms, given around 40 kts of effective shear. Another round of rain is possible overnight, but there will be less instability to work with. Today will be the hottest day of the next several with highs in the low 90s.

The upper level pattern does not change much through the weekend. Another wave in the northwest flow looks to move over the area on Sunday. Have maintained a slight chance for showers and a few storms Sunday afternoon, although instability looks fairly limited due to cloud cover. Temperatures will also be cooler a surface ridge brings a slightly cooler air mass into the area from the northeast.

The pattern holds through early next week and predictability of disturbances in the northwest flow becomes more difficult at longer ranges. The NBM has the highest POPs occurring Tuesday evening and night with a cold front moving into the area. Temperatures are expected to stay very close to average next week with highs in the upper 80s and overnight low in the mid 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered storms are possible this afternoon and evening, but timing and location is still somewhat uncertain. Have included a PROB30 group to account for when chances are around 30 percent at the KTOP/KFOE airports. Otherwise, VFR is expected this period with light wind.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.