textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Small snow/flurry chances (<20%) across northern and central Kansas this afternoon and into Friday, minimal accumulations expected if any at all.

- Light snow chances (30-40%) return Saturday evening across northern Kansas with minor accumulations possible.

- Below average temperatures continue through Saturday before a warm-up builds in Sunday and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough making its way across the central Plains as a large upper low rotates over the Great lakes region. The passage of the shortwave has helped to return the sub-freezing air into the area as winds continue to advect in cooler air in through the afternoon. Expect temperatures to top out in the mid 20s this afternoon. In addition to the cold, some sporadic lift associated with some weak waves on the backside of the shortwave will make their way into central Nebraska creating some low-end chances for light snow across northern portions of the area. Confidence in snow remains low (<15%) but cannot rule out some flurries through the afternoon and evening today. An additional wave of lift pushes into north-central Kansas Friday morning that could further increase light snow chances in that area. The best chances for light snow and flurries should stay confined to north-central and central KS where lift and low level moisture overlap the best.

The coldest temperatures of the week come overnight Friday into Saturday as arctic surface ridging builds into the area. Morning lows will bottom out in the 0 to -5 degree range as mostly clear skies and light winds become common. While winds will be fairly weak under the surface ridge, windchills from Midnight Saturday through the mid morning hours may approach -15 degrees so may see the need for a Cold Weather Advisory. Opted not to go with an advisory at this time as confidence in widespread areas seeing windchills to -15 is low at this time - short range ensemble guidance gives near 0 percent chances for windchill values to exceed -15 degrees. By Saturday night, another wave embedded in the upper-level flow will move into the central Plains and again increase some chances for some snow across northern Kansas. Again, widespread accumulations are not expected, but a few places may see some minor accumulations across far northern Kansas.

Warmer, more average temperatures build into the region Sunday as low level flow returns to the south and mid-level heights increase. There are some hints in a wave moving in from the PNW Tuesday that could bring some PoPs, but there still is a fair amount of discrepancy between long range guidance at this time, so confidence that precipitation will make it this far west is low.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Lower, at times limiting stratus looks to be the rule through this forecast. Some cloud around FL020 is noted north of the terminals but not shown much southward progression near TOP and FOE. Have kept TEMPO for this at MHK for a few hours and will watch trends. More widespread MVFR stratus is more likely after 15Z but may not reach east to TOP and FOE. Confidence in cloud specifics is low. Brief -SN can't be ruled out at MHK after 11Z but should stay west of TOP and FOE.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.