textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers overspread the area this morning with continued chances for rain showers into Wednesday.

- Gradually warming up again towards the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this morning shows two upper troughs coming into phase with one another over the central Plains, one from the southwestern US and the other from the northern Plains and northern Rockies. The upper level wave has pushed a surface low across southern Kansas with a frontal boundary pushing south into southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few elevated storms continue to percolate near the 850mb cyclone and baroclinic zone early this morning with small hail being the main hazard. As the front sinks further south into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, elevated instability will shift further south ending chances for deep convection. By sunrise this morning, mid-level lift increases as PVA overspreads much of Kansas. Scattered to widespread rain showers will continue through the morning and into the afternoon. Another wave of PVA associated with the slow moving upper- level trough enters central and eastern Kansas by this evening and into Wednesday morning ushering in more widespread showers. Mid- level and low-level lift begin to wane by Wednesday afternoon helping to push precipitation south and east of the area. The cloudy and rainy conditions today into Wednesday will keep afternoon temps on the cool side - topping out in the upper 50s and low 60s.

A gradual warm up begins Thursday as mid-level heights increase and low level flow returns from the south/southwest. Temperatures return to the upper 70s and low 80s by Friday with mostly dry conditions through Saturday afternoon. By late Saturday afternoon and into early Sunday morning, a wave moving out of the PNW ejects off the central Rockies and acts to push a surface cyclone and boundary across eastern Kansas. Deterministic guidance hints at decent moisture return ahead of the surface cyclone so some instability and shear may be available for stronger storms to be possible. That said, there is still a fair bit of uncertainty with the timing of the system so will continue to monitor changes in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Can't rule out some lightning at all sites over the next several hours, but SHRA more likely with high bases limiting impacts. Have a PROB group for another round of SHRA around 15Z based on latest trends but confidence is not high.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.