textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until Tuesday evening. Afternoon heat index values will reach 100-108 degrees.

- Confidence is increasing in isolated to scattered storms impacting the area Sunday afternoon and evening. The overall severe potential is low, but the strongest storms could produce wind gusts up to 60 MPH.

- Growing likelihood for a cold front to move through the area Tuesday evening, bringing chances for showers and storms along with slightly cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The mid-level ridge is in control of the Central and Southern Plains this morning with a closed upper low still parked across the Pacific Northwest. Less surface wind has allowed temperatures to fall into the low 70s this morning, still about 10 degrees above normal. Conditions today will be similar to yesterday with temperatures quickly warming up as diurnal mixing commences this morning. Highs will reach into the middle 90s to near 100 degrees with heat index values of 100-106. Something to note is the higher moisture content around 700 mb denoted by some short-term guidance. While large-scale forcing is lacking, 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE in a weakly capped environment could (10-15% chance) lead to the development of an isolated shower or storm this afternoon.

A backdoor cold front approaches the forecast area on Sunday with cloud cover and some precipitation looking more likely. Guidance has shown a stronger wave moving around the northern periphery of the ridge, sparking isolated to scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon. Shear of 25-30kts along with DCAPE of 1100-1300 J/kg could support some strong to severe storms, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. A complex of storms that develops across Nebraska Sunday afternoon could move southeast into portions of the area by late afternoon into the evening, again bringing some potential for strong winds. Cloud cover and showers/storms will lead to slightly lower temperatures on Sunday, albeit still hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees.

Uncertainty has increased in temperatures on Monday and will be dependent on how convection evolves Sunday evening and overnight. Cloud cover may stick around through the morning with the potential for a convective cold pool to move through the area as well. If this occurs, temperatures may be slower to warm up, but there is good consensus in a southerly wind working to overcome any outflow-cooled air and bump temperatures back into the 90s. With temperatures/heat indices more marginal on Sunday and Monday for an Excessive Heat Warning, there is the potential for some of the warning to be trimmed off, especially closer to the KS/NE stateline where heat indices may fall short of 100 degrees. Will not make any changes to the Extreme Heat Warning at this point given uncertainty.

A pattern change comes Tuesday as a potent closed low advances east across southern Canada towards the Great Lakes, shunting a cold front into the central CONUS. Ahead of the front, breezy southwesterly winds will likely boost temperatures into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees again Tuesday afternoon with heat index values of 100-108 degrees. Guidance has come into better agreement in this front making it into the forecast area Tuesday evening before the front hangs up across the region through the end of next week. Chances for showers and storms along the boundary have increased, especially Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This also means confidence in relief from the heat has increased. Temperature spreads remain quite large Wednesday through Friday, but have trended down with a long tail on the cool side of the distribution. Even with a slight cool down, temperatures are likely to remain above-normal for early September.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR at terminals as light southerly winds remain below 10 kts underneath area of high pressure.

CLIMATE

Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 6 Topeka 78, set in 1970 73 Concordia 81, set in 1939 74

September 7 Topeka 77, set in 1939 & 2016 72 Concordia 79, set in 1922 75

September 8 Topeka 78, set in 1983 75 Concordia 77, set in 1947 & 1983 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.