textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread frost expected along north of I-70 this morning. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for these areas until 8 AM Saturday.

- Warmer air returns by Sunday and Monday with afternoon temperatures returning to the 80s.

- Storms Monday will have the chance to be marginally strong to severe, but confidence is still low due to location and timing of the frontal boundary.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Another chilly night is underway as mostly clear skies and light winds remain common with surface ridging building in from central Nebraska. As temperatures continue to drop into the 30s by sunrise, frost development is expected across areas north of I-70 with temperatures falling in the 33-36 degree range. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for aforementioned areas until 8 AM this morning. By this afternoon, surface ridging continues to slide across the area with low level winds returning back to the south/southwest. This will set the stage for a warm-up come Sunday and into early next week.

By Sunday, two separate upper level systems will move towards the central US - one over Baja California and another pushing into the northern Plains. A weak jetstreak ahead of the northern cyclone will make its way into Nebraska by Sunday afternoon, helping to deepen a surface cyclone as it pushes into western Kansas. Over eastern Kansas, southerly flow should help to advect some modest moisture into the region ahead of the advancing surface trough. Some isolated storm chances may become possible across far eastern Kansas into Missouri along the surface trough by peak heating hours, but confidence is low in overall coverage with a strong EML still present over much of the region. Better chances for storms will come Monday afternoon/evening as the southwestern cyclone begins to eject off the southern Rockies. The advancement of the cyclone and increase of mid-level vorticity should again deepen a surface trough across the region, possibly combining with the surface trough with the northern cyclone. A frontal boundary will become a focal point for storms Monday afternoon and evening that could return storms and marginally severe weather back to the region. That said, confidence is still low with timing/location of the front and best forcing with the upper level cyclone. In addition, deterministic guidance keeps a fairly stout EML across the region by Monday afternoon and evening that may limit storm initiation. Will continue to monitor this system over the coming days to pin down what areas will see best chances for rain/storms.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, several embedded waves within southwesterly flow will move across the central Plains as a digging Canadian trough phases with the southwestern cyclone. Scattered rain and storm chances will stay in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures top out in the 50s and 60s. Luckily, the frontal boundary Monday night should push well south of northeast KS and will keep showers and storms elevated and non-severe.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions will persist over the TAF at all sites as surface ridging dominates the region. Expect light northerly winds slowly shifting towards the southwest by Saturday evening and mostly clear skies.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034.