textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and with skies partially clearing for the rest of today. Low chance for an evening pop-up storm.

- Hazardous heat quickly builds in Saturday and Sunday, likely continuing Monday and possibly Tuesday. Heat headlines in place each day for heat indices 105-113.

- Slight cooling trend likely by the middle of next week, but staying hot in general. Pattern suggests a few brief rain chances, but low confidence in any particular day or time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Rain continues to exit east this afternoon, with just a few lingering showers east of I-35. The associated clouds and rain- cooled air will help keep temperatures in the 80s today, with the warmest temperatures where skies have already cleared across north- central KS. As WAA strengthens this evening, still could see a brief shower or storm pop-up across far eastern KS. This has been hinted at with some recent CAM guidance, and seems plausible given the moist airmass. A veering wind profile leading to 30 kts of effective shear could support some brief storm organization, and perhaps some very localized gusty winds. But with subsidence and poor mid-level lapse rates, the most likely scenario is for little more than a rumble of thunder.

Attention for the rest of the forecast period turns to heat. An upper high quickly builds over the High Plains tonight into tomorrow, with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam. It then stays parked across the region into early next week. This is a classic pattern for hazardous heat and humidity. As usual, guidance has different depictions of how deeply we mix. But given the recent rainfall and current mid/upper 70s dewpoints across eastern OK, there is much more confidence in the more humid and less deeply mixed guidance. (Can almost immediately discount the GFS and its typical very hot/dry overmixing bias.) This would support high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s Saturday and Sunday, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Resulting heat indices should reach or exceed 105 area-wide. Have thus gone with a Heat Advisory for most of the area, with a small Extreme Heat Warning over east- central KS where confidence in 110+ heat indices is greatest. This warning may need to be extended northwestward.

Kept the Extreme Heat Watch in place for Monday and Tuesday, as confidence in the hazardous heat gradually decreases with time. Monday in all likelihood will again see heat indices 105-113, but there are a few hints in guidance that convection could develop over eastern Nebraska Sunday night and keep some clouds around into the day Monday. So will refrain from going with a heat warning until there's better confidence that won't happen. By Tuesday, more guidance pushes a boundary southward into the area as a shortwave drops southeast over the Great Lakes. Clouds and lingering showers could also be present with this. So confidence is even lower with heat indices 105+ Tuesday through Thursday, especially with northeastern extent across the area. But even with a slight cooldown, conditions should stay hot as the upper ridge never gets too far to our west.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Showers have moved east of the main TAF sites over the past hour, with predominantly VFR stratus in their wake. Have seen some very scattered MVFR ceilings at times as well, but think this will remain isolated. Expecting VFR conditions to continue the rest of the period, though a brief shower or storm can't be ruled out this evening towards KTOP/KFOE. Otherwise, winds stay southerly around 10 kts this afternoon before weakening overnight.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054. Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.