textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to push east across the area this morning.

- Additional showers/storms impact east central Kansas later today, with best chances (35-50%) along and south of Interstate 35.

- Sunday and Memorial Day look to be mainly dry, although there could be some showers/storms across north central Kansas Sunday and Monday evening.

- The pattern turns more active Tuesday through the end of next week with daily chances for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Showers and a few storms continue to push east across the forecast area early this morning along a weak surface trough. MLCAPE of 500- 1000 J/kg has allowed for some taller updrafts, but shear is weak and has limited intensity of convection. Precipitation slowly pushes east through the remainder of the overnight hours before dry conditions return by 6-7 AM.

Light winds and clearing skies favors fog development this morning, especially across eastern portions of the forecast area where higher dewpoints could lead to patchy dense fog. Fog should mix hour shortly after sunrise this morning. A convectively-enhanced shortwave lifts northeast out of Oklahoma through the day, bringing chances for showers and storms to mainly east-central Kansas. The HREF shows MUCAPE of a couple hundred J/kg in this area, but very weak shear, so severe weather is not expected. Showers and storms that develop across the High Plains this afternoon could approach north central Kansas late this evening, but precipitation is likely to dissipate before reaching this far east.

Southerly low-level winds and shortwave ridging bump temperatures back into the 80s Sunday with little change in temperatures through the rest of next week. Guidance suggests a similar setup to Saturday evening on Sunday and Monday evening with convection over central Kansas and Nebraska pushing southeast towards north central Kansas. Initiation of showers and storms farther to the east leads to increased probabilities that these could impact the forecast area Sunday evening. There is a signal from CAMs for a more organized line of high-based storms with inverted-v soundings to move into north central Kansas. This would support some gusty winds, but the overall severe risk appears low at this time.

The pattern becomes more active Tuesday through the end of the week with mid-level energy meandering around the Plains and a closed low across the western CONUS. This leads to daily chances for showers and storms, but there should be dry time mixed in as well. Severe weather appears unlikely; CIPS and CSU severe weather probabilities are mainly below 5%.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 436 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Precipitation has pushed east of terminals and VFR conditions have returned. Persistent cloud cover may limit fog development this morning, but could still see brief VSBY reduction through 13z or so. Winds will be light from the north-northeast through the day before becoming variable overnight. Conditions could be favorable for fog development before sunrise Sunday, but confidence is too low for inclusion.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.