textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms early this morning around the Flint Hills gradually weaken and clear by mid-day. Marginal threat for wind/hail, but locally heavy rain with isolated flash flooding is the main hazard.

- Warmth builds this weekend into early next week, with potential for heat indices around or above 100 each day.

- A few low rain chances over the next week, especially towards the Nebraska border, but overall mostly dry until Wednesday/Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage over the past few hours, particularly along an axis over the Flint Hills. RAP mesoanalysis suggests this corresponds to the eastern edge of a zone of 700 mb WAA, which makes sense as forecast soundings suggest storms will be rooted near 700 mb. Short term guidance keeps this WAA pattern going until early to mid morning tomorrow, which should in turn keep storms going through then. Despite moderate elevated instability, weak effective shear has kept storms thus far sub- severe. If moisture can locally deepen and storms become rooted lower to the ground, this could increase effective shear enough to allow for a few stronger storms with some wind/hail potential. The main threat though should be locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. Areas of 2-3", with very isolated higher pockets, seem plausible given a persistent focus of ascent for convection near the Flint Hills. Once the WAA pattern weakens this morning, expecting things to clear out by mid-day. Lingering clouds through the afternoon may keep highs in the 80s, but if skies can clear (especially farther west) temperatures should heat into the low 90s.

A warmer pattern will arrive for the weekend and the first half of next week as ridging over the Four Corners region expands eastward. However a fast zonal jet with embedded shortwaves will remain in place over the Northern Plains, keeping an east-west stationary boundary somewhere over Nebraska and Iowa. So we'll need to watch for any convective systems to our north that can shove some outflow and/or cloud cover southward into our area. Nevertheless, low-level winds stay mainly southerly, keeping sticky low/mid 70s dewpoints around. This should bring heat indices around or above 100 each day, as long as the aforementioned convection to our north doesn't play too large of a role.

By sometime mid-week, indications are for a stronger shortwave to once again dig deeper troughing over the Great Lakes. This increases confidence in some sort of cool-down. How much of a cool-down (near average or below average) would be dependent on the amplitude of the trough and its associated cold front. Rain and storm chances would also increase along and north of wherever this front ends up.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Thunderstorms towards KMHK will continue for a few more hours before gradually clearing later this morning. Still expecting the heavier showers/storms to stay west of KTOP and KFOE, with just some occasional light rain and rumbles of thunder. Ceilings continue to stay VFR through the morning, though similar to the past few hours some scattered lower stratus could briefly pass through. Otherwise, at times gusty south winds this morning will weaken after storms dissipate, then become near calm tonight.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.