textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering showers exit today with a mainly dry forecast into tonight; thunderstorm chances tonight remain focused mainly south of the area.

- Low, but non-zero, severe storm risk Saturday afternoon and evening, with isolated strong wind gusts or large hail possible across far eastern Kansas.

- Heat builds Sunday into next week with highs in the 90s and increasing humidity; heat indices of 100-110 are likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Early this afternoon, a departing convective complex and associated stratiform rain shield have shifted east of much of northeast Kansas, with only isolated very light showers lingering. Weak northwest flow aloft gradually gives way to rising heights as an upper ridge begins to build east from the central CONUS, while low-level flow veers to the south Saturday. CAMs indicate ample instability developing Saturday afternoon (surface-based CAPE on the order of 15003000 J/kg) as temperatures warm into the upper 80s and dewpoints reach the mid 70s, but large-scale ascent is weak and mid-level temperatures rise as the ridge strengthens, which keeps confidence low in anything developing. Both deterministic and ensemble solutions suggest any convection will be tied to subtle perturbations in the northwest flow and residual boundaries from prior convection, leading to considerable uncertainty in formation and coverage, but if any storm does develop Saturday, it has the potential to be severe.

Sunday through late next week, confidence is increasing in a significant warming trend as a strong upper ridge/heat dome expands across the central and eastern CONUS. Temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and overnight lows only falling into the upper 70s under persistent southerly flow and warm advection are favored through the end of the week. Heat indices are expected to rise into the 100-110 degree range each afternoon. Heat headlines will likely be needed for an extended period of time this coming week. Under the core of the ridge, subsidence should suppress convection for much of the period, with any higher storm chances focused along and north of a wavy frontal zone from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and along the southern and western flanks of the ridge over the Gulf Coast states and southern High Plains. As such, precipitation chances remain very low (near zero) across northeast Kansas at least through midweek. Overall forecast confidence is high in the warming trend and general dry pattern next week, but only low to moderate in the details of any isolated convection on the ridge periphery, including timing and placement of subtle shortwaves and remnant boundaries that could locally modulate storm chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

IFR becoming VFR by the early evening, then transitioning back to IFR. Low CIGs remain across the area early this afternoon but satellite trends indicate the stratus is beginning to break up. CIGs should start to scatter out late this afternoon and break up to VFR is favored by this evening. Another round of stratus is expected to rebuild into the area tonight and persist through mid-morning tomorrow. Patchy fog may also accompany the stratus tonight, but probabilities are too low and focused more to the north for any inclusion in the TAF at this point.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.