textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low chance (10-20%) for a very light wintry mix in north central KS overnight into Wednesday morning.

- Weather trends warm and dry the rest of the week into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Water vapor imagery at 20Z continues to show northwest flow aloft from the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A ridge is situated upstream and is amplifying over the West Coast. VAD wind profilers at 500mb indicate a subtle perturbation within the the northwest flow pattern in the CO/NE/KS vicinity. At the surface, high pressure centered over MN has been building south into the forecast area and pushing a sfc low southeast towards the lower Mississippi River Valley. This should increase subsidence across the area this afternoon into the evening. For the overnight hours, short-term model guidance has trended towards keeping reflectivity west of the area where the better forcing for ascent appears to be. Further east into our area, there is a shallow saturated layer below the DGZ with perhaps an hour or two of time when there could be just enough lift to squeeze out some freezing drizzle. That narrow time frame has trended later, likely after 09Z if it occurs at all. Notably, the HRRR has shown more reflectivity in our western counties during the afternoon hours Wednesday than at any other point before then. Vertical lift still doesn't look very impressive at that time frame, but might be a little better than the morning. Overall, the forecast appears to be trending toward a dry outcome, as you have to get to the 90th percentile to find any QPF. As such, have kept PoPs low to account for any limited possibility of freezing precip Wednesday morning. If the afternoon time frame does pan out, fortunately temperatures look to warm above freezing by then and would more likely be dealing with drizzle for a brief time.

Outside of low precip chances, we transition to meridional flow aloft Wednesday as the upper ridge builds eastward. This sets up a warming trend into Thursday with rising heights and WAA helping to boost temperatures into the 50s and low 60s. Similar highs are forecast through Monday of next week. Spreads in the ensembles become larger by Sunday, but even so, the NBM suggests above average temperatures are favored. The next precip chance may come next Tuesday, but a lack of consistency between models keeps PoPs low for now.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Main challenge this forecast period is timing the cigs lowering to MVFR. Upstream obs show these cigs as far south as CNK and MYZ currently, and guidance is now mixed on how much this will spread southeast this afternoon. Opted for a tempo group at MHK while TOP/FOE seem a bit more likely to hold between 3-4 kft. There is slightly better agreement that cigs could fall to MVFR overnight into early Wednesday morning, but how long they remain there is questionable. While there are some indications of a brief lift to VFR late in the period, opted to keep MVFR prevailing through the end of the period for now.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.