textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional chances (20-35%) for showers and storms Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected.

- Intermittent chances for rain continue through next week. Highest chances (30-60%) come Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

- Slightly cooler Sunday, then temperatures hold near-normal with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s through the remainder of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The synoptic pattern remains stagnant across the CONUS with the mid- level ridge parked over the Rockies and Southern Plains and northwest flow aloft across the Northern and Central Plains. Morning showers and storms have exited and clearing skies have allowed for good insolation. Temperatures have climbed to around 80 degrees and will top out in the mid to upper 80s. Another wave of energy in the northwest flow will spark convection across the High Plains tonight and this activity will propagate east-southeast, approaching north-central Kansas between 5-7 AM Sunday. Given how today's showers/storms lingered longer than CAMs suggested, have trended PoPs higher to match closer to the HRRR, which had the best handle on today's precipitation. Severe weather is not expected, but storms could produce gusty winds. There is a signal for isolated to scattered showers to continue through the daytime hours Sunday with thicker cloud cover keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Isentropic ascent along with lift from a weak shortwave will increase precipitation chances again Sunday night into Monday, with highest chances across eastern Kansas. This activity is unlikely to be severe and will push east of the forecast area by mid-morning Monday. More abundant sunshine will bump temperatures back into the mid 80s to low 90s Monday afternoon.

Very little change to the large-scale pattern is progged through the remainder of next week. Embedded perturbations in the northwest flow will lead to intermittent chances for showers and storms, with the strongest wave moving through Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Temperatures hold near-normal with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions expected. Some patchy fog may develop overnight, especially at KTOP, but confidence is low given elevated winds off the surface and increasing cloud cover. Showers may approach KMHK around 14z Sunday, but coverage and location of precip is too uncertain to include for now.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.