textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain late this afternoon transitions to light snow during the evening hours from west to east across northeast Kansas.

- Minimal impacts are expected tonight with snow accumulations less than 0.5 inches, isolated amounts up to 1 inch.

- Dry and seasonable conditions return this weekend into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The departing upper trough axis is lifting northeast towards the Great Lakes region this morning while the incoming southwest trough axis is rotating through New Mexico into southern Colorado. Remnant low stratus is observed retreating southeast as drier low level airmass filters through north central Kansas. As the sfc northwest winds wane by sunrise into Friday, the low stratus holds over east central Kansas before spreading northward again as the aforementioned upper trough axis lifts into the region later this afternoon and evening.

In terms of snow chances this evening, latest model guidance is largely unchanged with initial rain showers entering north central Kansas by late afternoon, spreading eastward and transitioning to light snow for a few hours before exiting into Missouri early Saturday morning. HREF members along with the Nam 3km and ECMWF are consistent with a weakening band of 850-700 MB frontogenesis along a somewhat narrow corridor stretching from the Flint Hills region towards the Manhattan and Topeka areas. While forcing is maximized within the DGZ by early evening, there is still some uncertainty in how quickly sfc temps fall to the low/mid 30s, allowing any notable snowfall to accumulate in a 2-3 hour time period. And while much of the snowfall should melt given the warmer ground temps, short-term travel impacts are anticipated as light-moderate snowfall could reduce visibilities in the evening. In terms of snow amounts, the latest HRRR, Namnest, and WRF members, in addition to the EC and CMC ensemble members have trended upward slightly in snow amounts, likely hinting at the possibility for narrow snow banding. Overall changes for this forecast package included increasing QPF by a few hundredths, therefore increasing total snowfall amounts from a tenth to half of an inch for most of east central and northeast Kansas. Cannot rule out isolated areas receiving up to 1 inch, especially in the Flint Hills region where near freezing temps persist longer. Fortunately, blowing snow is not a concern as northerly winds generally stay below 10 mph during this period.

Mostly clear skies on Saturday as upper air pattern transitions to a dry northwest flow for the next several days. After near normal temps in the 40s over the weekend, highs return to the 50s next week until the next weak cold front arrives by Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 459 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

MVFR stratus has cleared to the east of KTOP/KFOE while additional stratus attempts to redevelop near the KS/NE border. Based on observations and forecast soundings, I anticipate VFR conditions through mid afternoon before MVFR stratus south of sites begins to lift north and east, arriving at KMHK near 23Z. Have delayed the onset of precip at all terminals, lending to keeping the PROB30 at KTOP/KFOE of a rain/snow mix aft 01Z. Higher confidence for impacts remains at KMHK with the prevailing -RA switching to -SN from 23Z-03Z. Cigs should lift back to VFR after the precipitation passes.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.