textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A pleasant day today with highs in the low 80s.

- Warm and active pattern builds in through the next week with near daily storm chances.

- Some storms each day (Thursday through Monday) could be severe. See discussion below for further details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Synoptic features present on water vapor imagery this afternoon include a large trough and upper low over the PNW with weak southwesterly flow further south across California. Another cyclone over the Great Lakes region remains present with northwesterly to zonal flow over the central Plains and southeastern US respectively. Northwesterly flow over the central US has brought us a cool air mass from the north across Kansas as surface high pressure will dominate today's weather. Expect a very pleasant afternoon with low humidities, ample sunshine and light winds as temperatures top out in the low 80s. Overnight tonight, the surface ridge axis passes to our east returning low-level winds back out of the south. Weak moisture advection paired with LLJ and mid-level jet dynamics may give way to some elevated showers/weak thunderstorms across the area around sunrise. Confidence in coverage of showers/storms is not high with PoPs hovering around 15%.

By Thursday afternoon, moisture advection increases as diurnal heating pushes afternoon temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. This should result in elevated instability in the 1500-2000 J/kg range across central Kansas. That said, capping across the area will likely limit the potential for widespread storm development. The main focal area for any potential storm development by the late afternoon will be along a dryline draped across central and south- central Kansas. This may provide enough lift to overcome MLCIN to generate isolated convection. If a storm can get rooted and strengthen, it could become severe with large hail and damaging winds becoming a concern. Thursday's storm set up is fairly conditional on storms developing. By the evening, convergence along the nose of the LLJ increases across eastern Kansas and could help to generate scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms into the overnight hours. Confidence again is not high that storms will develop, but a storm or two capable of producing small hail cannot be ruled out. Friday will see a similar conditions set up to Thursday, highlighted by another afternoon cap over the area. Parameters for storms to become strong - once initiated - will be present by the late afternoon hours. The main question will be if parcels will be able to overcome the cap. Confidence is not high that this will occur. If a storm or two can develop and become strong, large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards.

By Saturday and Sunday, southwesterly flow aloft moves into the central and southern Plains and will continue to deepen a lee cyclone across the high southern Plains. Ahead of the deepening low, WAA will continue pushing afternoon temperatures into the low 90s area wide. Moisture coming up from the Gulf will be noted as well and will again set the stage for strong to severe storm chances through the weekend. By Saturday afternoon, the main forcing mechanism seems to an inverted surface trough draped north of the surface low into eastern Kansas. With diurnal warming and moisture advection through the day Saturday helping to erode MLCIN, parcels being aided by the convergence along the inverted trough should begin to reach their LFCs. Parcels will likely quickly within an environment of 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 7.5+ degree ML lapse rates. Shear looks marginal (around 30 knots) so storm mode may stay as multicellular for most of Saturday afternoon and evening posing a large hail and damaging wind threat. Severe storm chances return Sunday afternoon and evening as the main longwave trough axis begins to eject off the central Rockies. Some embedded shortwaves ahead of the main trough axis should enter the central Plains by Sunday afternoon helping to increase widespread lift over the region. This will further reinforce and restrengthen the lee cyclone over southwestern Kansas. Persistent low-level southerly flow ahead will continue to stream north from the Gulf - possibly bringing in upper 60 to low 70 degree dewpoints into eastern Kansas by Sunday afternoon. With the stage for severe storms set across Kansas, the main question that still remains uncertain is where storms will fire. Currently, the best low-level forcing is a bit to out west across central Kansas. If the upper low speeds up a bit, the forcing mechanism may push east by peak heating hours moving the main hazard area over eastern Kansas. All that said, confidence in timing and location for storms Sunday and into Monday is not high and will remain dependent on the timing of upper level features and positions of forcing mechanisms.

Cooler temperatures move in by Tuesday after the passage of the longwave trough axis. Additional upper level waves moving in from the PNW may keep our pattern active through next week as temperatures remain near-normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR TAFs will continue at all sites through the period. High pressure will dominate the region for much of the period before exiting to our east overnight tonight. This will return gusty south winds by Thursday morning with mid and high clouds overspreading the area.

CLIMATE

Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperature for Friday, May 15

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1944) 94 Concordia 91 (1944, 2012) 95

Record High Temperature for Saturday, May 16

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1931) 90 Concordia 93 (2019) 91

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.