textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-A hot a dry pattern has developed and looks to stay in place through the week, likely beyond.

-Well above average temperatures will approach records at times - mainly overnight lows.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The pattern across the CONUS this afternoon consists of a large mid- level ridge centered over the southeastern US, southwest flow aloft from the Desert Southwest into the High Plains and Midwest, a compact low over south-central Canada and a trough axis off the Pacific Northwest coastline. There is also a tropical system just south of Louisiana that is set to impact portions of eastern TX early this week. At the sfc, there remains an inverted trough/weak cold front across far northern KS where temperatures are a few degrees cooler. Most locations south of that boundary are approaching 100 degrees this afternoon with heat index values a few degrees higher. The current Heat Advisory continues until 7PM today.

The sfc boundary looks to push northward tonight as a LLJ develops, keeping any rain chances north of the area. A very similar pattern looks to remain in place through the rest of the workweek, allowing for south/southwesterly flow and very warm 925-850mb temps to keep well above average temps in place heading into early September. Afternoon highs should be around 100 degrees each day with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. For comparison, average highs are currently in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Dew points each afternoon should range from the mid to upper 60s, which will cause heat index values to stay in the 100 to 105 degree range. Have opted to not continue the Heat Advisory with marginal conditions in place most afternoons this week. That said, however, those spending time outdoors should remain cautious of the heat and take proper steps to avoid heat related illnesses that can set in quickly.

Long range models seem to be in agreement with this hot and dry stretch of weather continuing through the weekend and likely into next week as the upper ridge expands directly over the central US. The NBM spread in high temperatures increases slightly toward early next week and the going forecast tries to lower temps as a potential sfc cold front approaches the area. Am thinking that front might get washed out before it can make a difference and that we will see the temps trend back toward triple digits as that timeframe nears.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR continues with just few/sct diurnal cumulus this afternoon around 090. Otherwise, south-southwest winds around 10-12 kts this afternoon decrease to less than 10 kts and back to more of a southerly direction tonight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 1 Topeka 81, set in 2011 76 Concordia 80, set in 1913 75

September 2 Topeka 80, set in 2011 78 Concordia 79, set in 1929 77

September 3 Topeka 77, set in 1939 78 Concordia 80, set in 1947 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.