textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning continues today and tomorrow, with heat indices 109-114 degrees each afternoon/evening.

- Trending closer to average beginning Tuesday, especially by the weekend.

- Low (10-50%) rain chances each day beginning Tuesday, with the best opportunity arriving Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A strong upper high remains in place across the Central Plains, supporting our current heat wave. This morning's TOP sounding showed 500 mb heights of 597 dam, not too far off max climatological values. Surface moisture also continues to be deeper and more resistant than guidance was depicting a few days ago, with widespread upper 70s dewpoints still in place across most of eastern KS. As such, hot and humid conditions are expected to stay in place today, with heat indices climbing above 110 in most places. Do expect slightly deeper mixing tomorrow as winds turn a bit more southwesterly, so we should see our warmest day of the stretch but with dewpoints a few degrees lower. Regardless, heat indices should climb near or above 110 degrees area-wide, so extended the Extreme Heat Warning for one more day.

By Tuesday, the upper high will begin to weaken and shift westward as a shortwave trough drops southeast over the Great Lakes. This will also help push a weak cold front southward across the area. Particularly with potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms behind the front, this will help temperatures cool down compared to the prior few days. Confidence in these cooler temperatures has increased enough to trim the Extreme Heat Watch out of northern Kansas, but have kept it in place across east-central KS. May be able to cancel this as well if confidence further increases in clouds/rain behind the front.

Wednesday into Thursday will continue to see low rain chances as another weak mid-level perturbation increases lift north of Tuesday's frontal boundary. Temperatures will continue to be dependent on coverage of rain and clouds, likely staying in the 80s with more clouds and rising into the low/mid 90s with more sun. But overall, does look less oppressive in terms of heat index compared to today and Monday. Good indication in ensemble guidance for a stronger shortwave to drop southeast across the Midwest late Thursday into early Friday. This should bring our best chance for scattered showers and storms, followed by a more notable cold front. Behind the front high temperatures in the 80s seem probable, along with at least a modest drop in dewpoints.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Expecting VFR conditions with persistent southerly winds around 10 kts to continue through the period. If winds can briefly calm late tonight, could see some brief and marginal LLWS as the LLJ strengthens after midnight.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056- KSZ058-KSZ059. Extreme Heat Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.