textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A few thunderstorms develop this afternoon along and southeast of Interstate 35. A storm or two could be strong to severe and produce hail up to 1" in diameter and 60 MPH wind gusts.

- Higher chances for showers and storms (40-75%) come Saturday evening and Saturday night. Gusty winds are possible with these showers/storms.

- Near-normal temperatures expected on Sunday before warming above normal Monday through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A shortwave moving through the northwest flow has produced scattered showers for much of the day with a weak surface boundary pushing southeast across the forecast area. Ahead of this boundary, dew points have risen into the low to mid 50s and MLCAPE has increased to 750-1000 J/kg. The boundary will move into this more unstable airmass and spark isolated to scattered thunderstorm development along and southeast of Interstate 35 this afternoon. Effective shear of 30-35 kts would support a couple of strong to severe storms capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 MPH and hail up to quarter size. These storms are expected to move east of the forecast area by 6 PM, leaving dry conditions overnight into Saturday morning. On Saturday, southwesterly low-level winds will aid in boosting temperatures into the low 80s before a stronger shortwave and cold front move through the area Saturday evening and Saturday night. Additional showers and storms develop during this time, although weak instability should limit the intensity of these storms. Steep low-level lapse rates create inverted-V soundings that will support some gusty winds with any showers and storms. CAMs show the potential for a more organized cluster of storms to produce severe wind gusts across portions of central Kansas. This stronger cluster is currently progged to stay west of the forecast area, but it is worth monitoring this potential.

Showers and isolated storms linger into Sunday morning before becoming dry with clearing skies by the afternoon. A cooler airmass will be in place behind the boundary, leading to highs near 70 degrees. Temperatures warm Monday and Tuesday as longwave troughing shifts east and a mid-level ridge inches east towards the Plains. A closed low is progged to dive southeast towards the Great Lakes on Tuesday, which will push a cold front through the area. Better moisture and ascent will be northeast of the area, but there is a low (10-15%) chance for some showers as the front moves through. Uncertainty increases Thursday through the end of the week. Mid- level ridging is progged to build over the Southern and Central Plains Thursday, but several passing waves lead to at least low chances for showers and storms through the weekend. Timing differences in the first wave's ejection Thu-Fri leads to a 10-15 degree spread in NBM 25-75th percentiles for highs on Thursday. Even so, above-normal temperatures are likely Thursday into the weekend with increasing potential for highs to reach into the low 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR at terminals as clouds clear to the southeast behind the front. Weak northwest winds overnight gradually back to the southwest by Saturday morning. Southerly winds increase from 10-15 kts sustained aft 14Z. Mid clouds are anticipated to increase at all sites aft 19Z. There is a chance for light rain showers shortly aft the forecast period Saturday evening.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.