textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Fire Danger for most of the area today.

- Warm to end the week and then a return to Winter-like temperatures early next week, with snow showers possible Sunday night into Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Today, a tight pressure gradient will develop across the area. With dry, southwesterly warm-air advection and deep mixing also in place, a windy day is expected with wind gusts around 45 mph this afternoon. These dry/windy conditions will lead to Extreme Fire Danger today. See the fire discussion below for more information. Tonight, a fast-moving cold front will swing through. This will shift wind out of the north and lead to a cooler day on Friday.

A warm-up into the first half of the weekend is expected, with highs returning into the 70s Saturday.

A big change in the weather is favored to arrive on Sunday as a deep trough digs into the central Plains and a strong cold front swings through. Some light rain is possible in the morning, but once the cold front moves through temperatures will quickly fall and rain may change to snow. There is a lot of uncertainty as to how much moisture will be available and how quickly temperatures fall below freezing, but right now ensembles give a good chance (30-50%) of seeing at least some measurable snow across northeast Kansas. Behind the front, strong cold-air advection and significant pressure rises will lead to very windy conditions. Ensembles give a 40-50% chance of seeing wind gusts greater than 50 mph Sunday afternoon. The wind and the cold will lead to a frigid night Sunday and morning on Monday, with wind chills around zero degrees. Thankfully, it appears this cold will be short-lived as southerly wind returns on Tuesday and highs climb back up into the 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Light wind tonight will become southwesterly by the early morning. Wind speeds will pick up through the morning, topping out in the afternoon with gusts to 38 knots. Surface wind speeds will decrease slightly after sunset, but a significant increase in wind aloft will occur. This will lead to LLWS of over 50 knots this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for north central, northeast, and portions of east central KS from Noon through 8 PM.

South-southwesterly winds will increase from 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours Today. Relative humidity will fall into the 18-22% range this afternoon. The southeast counties that received heavier rains Tuesday night may see humidity in 25 to 30 percent. However, this area will still have Very High Fire Danger. A surface front will move south Thursday night and switch winds to the north but wind will be light (generally 10 mph or less by early Friday morning).

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.