textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme heat again today and still quite hot Monday. Slow cooling trend continues into the late week.

- No precipitation expected until at least Monday night with chances lingering into the later week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Very high surface moisture content Saturday afternoon coming down slowly overnight with most dewpoints below 80 degrees at 06Z. With 850mb temperatures in the mid 20s C and good insolation pushing surface temps to the mid to upper 90s, most places saw apparent temps over 115 at least briefly. Mean guidance was too low with dewpoints Saturday, and values closer to the 75th percentile of NBM were realized. Though there should be somewhat better mixing today and ground conditions continue to dry, went closer to the 75th percentile dewpoints for today. In combination with slightly warmer temps off the surface, apparent temps should be around Warning levels this afternoon, and given the high-end conditions Saturday, will go ahead with a Warning area-wide today. Most guidance suggests the warmest air temps may come Monday though also bring dewpoints down as low-level flow veers and increases somewhat. This should allow for slightly lower apparent temps, still in Advisory levels for the bulk of the area.

Still appears the upper ridge over the Southwest weakens somewhat late Monday and allows a weak cold front to push through Monday night into Tuesday. Precipitation chances remain modest but should increase later in the week as stronger shortwave energy rounds the ridge and moves through the northern and central Plains. Tuesday could still bring notable heat to at least southern areas depending on how fast the front passes, dewpoints behind it, and any convection, so the Extreme Heat Watch seems reasonable to keep at this point. The pattern supports generally cooler, closer to normal conditions Wednesday into Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions will continue with mainly light south winds and some cirrus. A few minor gusts are possible around 21Z. A modest low-level jet forms tonight but LLWS potential is low.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Extreme Heat Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.