textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Above-normal temperatures expected again on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 60s.

- Slight chance (15-20%) for light rain along a cold front late Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Gusty and cooler Wednesday behind the front.

- Dry with near-normal temperatures Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Northwest flow aloft persists across the Central Plains with west- southwest surface winds helping to boost temperatures into the 50s this afternoon. Downsloping winds continue on Tuesday and even warmer 925mb temperatures (11-15 degrees C) favor highs in the low to mid 60s across the area. A shortwave dives southeast across the central CONUS and shunts a cold front through the area late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. Forecast soundings depict saturation and lift in the mid and upper levels with dry air remaining below 800mb or so. Even with the low-level dry air in place, sprinkles and/or light rain is looking more likely to reach the surface during this timeframe, so have increased PoPs to 15-20%.

Gusty north winds usher in colder air behind the boundary for Wednesday. Highs will struggle to warm into the low 40s Wednesday afternoon with gusts of 25-35 MPH keeping wind chills in the 30s. There is at least a low-end chance of precipitation on Wednesday as forecast soundings show saturated low-levels and steep low-level lapse rates. With temperatures staying above-freezing in the lowest 2000ft or so, rain is the most likely precipitation type, although some snow could mix in if the low-levels cool toward the wet-bulb temperature. Confidence in this scenario is low, so have kept out mention in the forecast for now and will continue to monitor this potential.

Surface ridging quickly slides south of the area Wednesday night with southerly winds returning for Thursday. A couple of potent perturbations shunt a pair of cold fronts through the area Thursday night through the weekend. Predictability decreases during this timeframe; spread in temperatures is large (~20 degree spread in NBM 25-75th percentiles for high temperatures) behind this front as guidance varies in how far west and how persistent the post- frontal cold air will be. Even so, cooler-than-normal temperatures are favored, especially overnight when lows are forecast to fall into the teens with winds chills near or below zero. There could be some light precipitation with these passing waves/fronts as well, but confidence in any impactful amounts is very low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1042 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR TAFS continue over the period at all sites. Only change in TAFs was the mention of light rain chances at all sites at the end of the period. Opted to go with a PROB30 group this far out.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.