textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow is expected to move into northern Kansas this evening. Snow amounts should be minor with mainly a dusting expected.

- There is a 10 to 20 percent chance for light snow Tuesday night.

- Otherwise dry weather is forecast for next week with more moderate temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Northwest flow persisted over the central plans per the 08Z water vapor imagery. One shortwave was propagating east of the MS river as another wave dug southeast over the northern Rockies. Surface obs showed a 1043 MB high building into northeast KS with very dry air as noted from the 00Z TOP RAOB.

The main focus of the forecast is with the shortwave diving south today. Models show an organized band of mid level frontogenesis with some mid level saturation. But forecast soundings show quite a bit of dry low level air to overcome with no significant moisture advection noted from the model progs. With most guidance showing some light snow by the early evening, have continued with some chance POPs mainly across the northern counties. Any accumulations should be light due to the initial dry low level air with amounts only around a tenth of an inch. The surface ridge should keep highs well below freezing today, especially with increasing high clouds this afternoon. Surface ridging weakens quickly Sunday with a westerly low level wind. Have skies clearing out with good insolation and warm air advection warming temps into the 40s. May have to keep an eye on a stratocu deck forming off of the remaining snow cover as low level lapse rates steepen up. But temps should quickly moderate.

Another shortwave is progged to move across the central plains Tuesday with a weaker ridge of high pressure accompanying it. Confidence in precip chances with this wave is low because the majority of the 12Z ensemble members fail to develop precip. The ensembles would suggests there is a 10 percent chance for precip as the wave passes Tuesday night. The NBM has POPs in the 10 to 20 percent range and this seems plausible given the pattern. Cluster analysis of the 12Z ensemble data shows models have a similar idea with the synoptic pattern and the main differences are with the amplitude of the shortwave details. The spread in temps through the middle of next week are also indicative of a pattern with some better predictability. With this in mind have not altered the NBM initialization. Big picture is northwest flow is likely to persist with occasional waves moving through. Limited moisture or ability for persistent southerly return flow means precip chances are pretty limited. Temps should also moderate with no obvious arctic intrusion seen through next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 447 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Dry air with the surface ridge will keep VFR conditions in place today. Bands of light snow are expected to bring minor impacts (mainly MVFR VSBY) to the terminals this evening. Latest guidance shows this most likely during the 01Z to 06Z window with possibly some flurries after that.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.