textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm temperatures continue for the next week, with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
- Low chances (20-40%) for light showers on most days next week, but not expecting much in the way of rainfall amounts through Friday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
The seasonably deep upper low over the Southwest CONUS continues to gradually fill this afternoon, still pumping deep moisture northwards across the Rockies and High Plains. Upper ridging centered over the Mississippi Valley is preventing this low from moving much east. There is a weak cold front approaching northern KS, but it is progged to wash out this evening and not be much of a factor going forward. As a result, warm and dry conditions remain in place across the forecast area, and will continue through Sunday.
By Sunday night into Tuesday, a second upper low will move into the Pacific Northwest, lifting the original low north-northeast across the Plains. The best moisture transport and lift looks to remain west of the area, so appreciable rainfall is not expected. However a few rounds of light rain still seem plausible. This would initially be towards central KS on Monday, then farther east on Tuesday as a secondary vorticity maxima lifts northeast. Clouds may keep temperatures Tuesday down a bit, but overall warm temperatures will continue without any notable cold front.
The warm pattern will hold for the rest of the week too, as troughing amplifies out west with broad ridging expanding over the eastern CONUS. A few more weak perturbations will move through the southwesterly flow aloft, which will keep some low PoPs around each day. However the better chances for any widespread rain will hold off until the main western trough moves east towards the Plains. This looks to be around or after the end of the current forecast period, likely not until next weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
VFR conditions with occasional high clouds will continue through the period. South winds around 10 kts this afternoon will weaken towards sunset.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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