textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold tonight with lows below zero and wind chills around -10 degrees.

- Chances (20-50%) for snow increase Saturday evening, continuing into Saturday night. Any snow accumulations are expected to be light.

- Warmer next week with highs near or slightly above climatological norms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Water vapor Satellite imagery showed an upper level trough digging southeast across the central Plains. Ahead of the H5 trough there was enough ascent for an area of light snow to develop across the central and western counties of the CWA. The area of snow will push southward out of the CWA during the late afternoon hours. There may be a dusting up to a half inch of snow accumulations south and west of a Concordia to Emporia line.

Tonight, skies will clear and a surface ridge currently over the northern Plains will build southward across eastern KS. Winds will become light after midnight and overnight lows will drop to 0 to 5 below zero. Wind chill indices will only drop to 5 to 14 below zero, so a cold weather advisory will not be issued.

Saturday, will be our coldest day of the forecast period, but skies will be mostly sunny and winds will be light. Highs will only reach the upper teens to lower 20s.

Saturday night, another mid level perturbations will dig southeast across the Plains and upper midwest. There will not be much low- level moisture but DCVA ahead of the H5 trough axis will provide enough ascent for some light snow or flurries Saturday night through the early morning hours of Sunday.

Sunday through Friday:

The extended range models are in agreement that the northwest mid and upper level flow will become more zonal through next week. The arctic surface ridge will slide off to the the southeast, across the lower MS River Valley.

Highs Sunday through Tuesday will warm into the 40s. A weak front will move southeast across the CWA Tuesday night, which will cool highs a bit on Wednesday with mid 30s east to lower 40s west. Highs will warm back into the 40s and possibly lower to mid 50s as a southern stream H5 ridge amplifies across the central Rockies. Looks as if the arctic air masses will remain east of the area across the Great Lakes and east central US.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Current high-end MVFR cigs at KMHK should lift to VFR within the next hour or so with VFR conditions then expected through the remainder of the period. Gusty north winds will subside by 01z and become southwesterly by late morning Saturday. Light snow could impact KMHK near the end of this TAF period, but higher chances come after 00z Sun.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.