textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Low impact snow chances Thursday, Friday, and Saturday for portions of northern and north central Kansas.

- Arctic airmass returns once again Thursday-Saturday with highs in the teens-low 20s each afternoon. Coldest morning is on Saturday where wind chills are close to advisory levels from 10 to 15 degrees below zero.

- Another potentially stronger storm system may bring a mix of rain and snow Tuesday-Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon highlights the upper troughs in northeast provinces of Canada while upstream northwest flow stretches through the Midwest. Focus turns towards a shortwave trough shifting into the Inter-Mountain West before lifting southeast through the plains Thursday. A back door front cold front is progged to arrive by the morning, resulting in northeast winds around 10 mph and highs struggling to reach the mid 20s. By the late morning, increasing mid level moisture with some weak frontogenesis (850-700mb) may lead to very light snow over far northeast Kansas. Timing of this forcing amid the low level moisture and some drier air attempting to evaporate most of the QPF before reaching the sfc. Outside the NAM, most guidance is dry throughout the day. Added slight pops on Thursday, however anticipate no accumulations.

The arctic airmass digs in Friday into Saturday as highs are in the teens and overnight lows are mostly in the single digits. Surface high pressure centers over the state on Saturday morning, allowing clearing skies and lows to plummet around 5 degrees below zero. Confidence remains moderate for Advisory level wind chills ranging from 10 to 15 degrees below zero. In terms of precipitation, additional light snow chances return, mostly across north central Kansas, on Friday as an additional mid-level frontogenetical band traverses southeast around the backside of the upper low. Little moisture to work with lends to low confidence in any accumulations, most likely west of the area with NBM snowfall probabilities less than 0.5 inch (80-90%) from Concordia to Minneapolis.

Next weak system to note rounds the upper ridge before reaching the central plains on Saturday evening. Overall ensembles are varied on the strength of the wave as it weakens further southward. NBM probabilities have been consistent in snowfall greater than 0.1 inches being 20 percent, down to less than 10 percent for 0.5 inches or more near the Kansas/Nebraska border. The 20-30 pops still seem reasonable, highest being north of I-70.

A stronger shortwave trough enters somewhere off the Pacific Northwest coast over the weekend, entering the region in the Tuesday- Wednesday time frame. Orientation of the wave and degree of forcing greatly varies among ensembles while temp spreads among the NBM are not surprising (10-15 degree difference) with indications for precip type being rain initially as forecast highs reach the low 40s. If precip were to persist into the evening, precip may briefly switch to all snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1107 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR at terminals through forecast period with focus on increasing mid and high clouds this evening from the west. KMHK is most likely to see 4-5kft cigs aft 10Z as a cold front backs winds to the northeast near 10 kts.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.