textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
-Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect tonight and early Saturday.
-After a few chilly days, temperatures gradually warm into the middle of next week.
-Rain chances stay low until late next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Windy and cloudy conditions continue in eastern KS this afternoon while an upper trough axis pushes east of the area and as a large surface ridge builds in from west. The ridge will settle over the area tonight, allowing skies to clear and winds to become calm. This creates favorable conditions for radiational cooling and very chilly temperatures tonight and early Saturday. With the first freeze expected for some, confidence was high enough to upgrade the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for the northwestern half of the forecast area, and to continue the Frost Advisory for our remaining counties where temperatures will drop to near freezing. There could be some isolated locations, especially those in valleys, within the Advisory area that also drop to or just below freezing for a few hours before sunrise tomorrow.
High pressure begins moving east of the area tomorrow but the associated cool and dry air mass will stick around. Highs tomorrow afternoon will run about ten degrees below average, capping temps around 60 degrees. Southwesterly flow and warming 850mb temperatures will help nudge highs into the mid and upper 60s on Sunday. A warming trend will continue into the middle of next week with each day about four to five degrees warmer than the previous day. While a few shortwaves in southwest flow aloft may move over western KS periodically this week, have kept POPs less than 10 percent until the very end of the week when a strong system approaches the area.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Stratus is expected to remain VFR and will scatter this afternoon, giving way to clear skies by tonight. Gusty north-northwest winds will also subside this evening, becoming calm overnight and Saturday morning.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
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