textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances for an afternoon thunderstorm exists across far eastern Kansas this afternoon.

- Dangerous heat becomes the main headline over the next week with daily heat index values topping out around 100 - 110 degrees.

- Minimal relief will be felt overnight as low temperatures only fall into the mid to upper 70s.

- An Extreme Heat Warning will be in effect Sunday afternoon through Friday evening across all of northeast Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Morning clouds continue to scatter out across eastern Kansas as an MCV exits east of the area into Missouri. On the back side of this MCV, some showers were noted across far eastern Kansas, but as this continues to track east, most low-level lift will weaken ending appreciable chances for showers/storms. Mid-level water vapor imagery across the CONUS shows a low over the PNW, shortwave ridging over the northern Plains, quasi-zonal flow over much of the central US and a building dome of high pressure over the southern Gulf states. For the remainder of the day, a fairly stout EML advects into central and eastern Kansas. This keeps conditions mostly sunny and dry as afternoon temperatures creep into the upper 80s and low 90s. With Tds in the upper 60s and low 70s, heat indicies will approach 100 degrees by 4-7 PM today. Minimal relief from the heat will come overnight as southerly flow continuously pumps in warm low- level air into the region. Expect warm morning lows bottoming out in the mid to upper 70s.

The hot and humid conditions are not expected to go anywhere for the foreseeable future as the very warm and moist airmass intensifies and stalls over the central US. Mid-level ridging from the southeast expands across the Plains as southerly flow on the western side of the ridge does not provide any chances for CAA across the region. Given the very warm 850-700 mb temperatures over the course of the week, relief from afternoon thunderstorms will not likely come. This will lead to mostly sunny skies each day with air temperatures building into the mid to upper 90s Sunday through Friday. Pair this with 70-75 degree Tds and heat indicies will reach upwards of 105-110 degrees each afternoon this week. Additionally to the hot afternoon temperatures, minimal relief will be felt overnight as morning low struggle to fall below 75 degrees. The small spreads in ensemble guidance yields high confidence in this set up persisting through the week and thus, upgraded and extended the Extreme Heat Watch to an Extreme Heat Warning from Sunday afternoon through Friday evening. The only real chances (10-20%) for any precipitation across the region comes Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening but will generally stay west and north of our area. Some relief in a more active pattern may come by the weekend as the trough out west tries to dig further south into the 4-corners region. Ridging over much of the central US looks to remain, but mid-level energy moving across the Plains could help to mitigate temperatures with cloud cover and precipitation chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Wind is the main aviation concern this period with VFR conditions prevailing. Diurnal cu should decrease early this evening with SSE winds persisting around 10 kts. Winds gradually increase through the night and veer more southerly while gusts pick up tonight and persist around 25-30 kts through most of the day Sunday. Given the increasing winds through the profile, some low-level turbulence is likely overnight as well.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.