textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Record highs forecast for Monday.

-Elevated fire danger remains a concern early in the workweek.

-Rain chances return, with several opportunities for beneficial moisture during the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Southerly sfc flow is increasing atmospheric moisture throughout the region today, helping to keep relative humidity values a little higher than previous days. WAA is also occurring with 1000-500 mb thicknesses steadily increasing. Thus, temperatures are on their way up into the upper 70s this afternoon. This is not record territory, but is well above our late March averages in the low 60s. Record highs will be in jeopardy tomorrow (see the climate section below) when a continued warm low level pattern allows temps to soar into the mid and upper 80s. Confidence is fairly high as NBM spread is low, ranging from 87 degrees to 92 degrees for the 25th and 75th percentiles. Fire danger becomes more elevated once again tomorrow due to slightly lower afternoon RH, and slightly higher winds.

A pattern shift occurs Tuesday when a cold front moves through northeast KS. There are some slight timing differences among models, with most favoring a morning and early afternoon fropa. Temperatures are a little more in question and will be influenced by the front, however, confidence is still high on another fairly warm day. Precipitation chances then increase behind the boundary late in the day, especially south of the Kansas Turnpike where model show isentropic ascent and a more unstable air mass. Average LREF QPF into Wednesday morning ranges from 0.25" to 0.50" southeast of the turnpike, while the mean NBM output is slightly higher.

POPs increase and become more widespread throughout the day on Wednesday with large scale ascent ahead of an approaching mid- level wave. The surface boundary will move back to the north to near I-35, which is where the heaviest rainfall is expected to occur into Thursday. This could be a timeframe for more beneficial rain. NBM has around a 30% chance for at least 1.0" in Topeka, and a 50% chance for at least 0.5". These percentages increase further to the southeast, around Emporia and Garnett. POPs decrease on Thursday as the open-wave mid-level trough axis passes east of the area, and temps will be on the cool side of average.

A stronger storm system then develops over the Intermountain West and will induce lee cyclogenesis on Friday. Long range models show thunderstorms developing near the cold front in the afternoon/evening in eastern KS. Depending on the timing, this could be a better set up for severe weather. Heavy rainfall is also possible with pwat values above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR at terminals as gusty sfc winds subside below 10 kts by 01Z. LLWS is still expected for a few hours commencing at 05Z as a 45kt southwesterly LLJ develops at 1500 ft. Conditions are more marginal at KMHK so opted to keep out the LLWS mention.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Today through Monday:

The southerly winds will transport enough residual moisture north to keep minimum RHs in the 25 to 35 percent range. However gusty southerly winds may still cause any fires to be uncontrollable wild fires given the dry fuels. Tuesday we will see a cold front push southeast across the area, which will switch winds from the south to the northwest, which could make fighting any grass fires more difficult with the wind shift.

The rangeland fire index will only be in the high category Today. Monday, there may be more areas of very high fire danger.

We will see a break in the elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday through next weekend as temperatures will be cooler, RHs will be higher, and there will be chances for rain.

CLIMATE

Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Record High Temperature for March 30:

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1943) 87 Concordia 89 (1917) 87

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.