textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light showers end by late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms become more prevalent late tonight though severe weather is not likely.

- Warmer for much of the week with periodic chances for more showers and thunderstorms.

- Even warmer conditions possible next weekend with heat indices possibly reaching 100 degrees again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Surface high pressure centered over western Missouri has allowed for a drier lower troposphere today. Showers and a few thunderstorms moving east out of central portions of Nebraska and Kansas have struggled to maintain themselves and this should be the rule through late afternoon, with very little if any rain accumulation. An advancing shortwave over south-central Canada tonight produces modest low-level warm air advection in eastern Kansas late tonight to support more precipitation. MUCAPE will be greater than today, though still likely less than 1000 J/kg with high storm bases and modest flow to limit effective shear despite northwest flow aloft bringing some veering with height. Gusty winds, most likely sub-severe, should be the main convective concern. Some isolated heavier rainfall can't be ruled out in this regime either with high freezing levels and precipitable water values around 1.8 inches. The most likely location for storms looks to be in east-central Kansas after midnight to around dawn though CAMs are showing some variability. Monday should see clearing conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures.

The northwest flow regime stays in place through the bulk of this forecast period, bringing occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms as weak waves traverse the flow. The next best chance looks to be late Tuesday into Tuesday night then again around Friday but confidence is fairly low in when and where any precip will be. Can't rule out any severe weather or locally heavy rain but again nothing stands out for any particular threat at any one time. The pattern flattens a bit this weekend and may serve to bring stronger south to southwest low-level flow for warmer and more uncomfortable conditions. EPS guidance continues to show the stronger positive 850 mb temperature anomalies during this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Lift is expected to increase on the nose of the low level jet late tonight causing elevated showers and storms mainly between 08Z and 15Z. At this time much of the guidance focuses the lift just south of the terminals. So will keep the PROB30 group for now. VFR conditions are forecast to persist unless a shower impacts a terminal with at least some TEMPO MVFR conditions.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.