textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Cold temperatures through Sunday then mild for the early to middle of next week.
- Small potential for light and brief freezing drizzle north of I-70 midday Saturday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Modest north winds continue to bring in cooler air today with some areas of stratus in central and northern Kansas. Cold air advection subsides this evening with at least some clouds for lows around 20. Brief warm-air advection precedes a northwest flow wave traversing states to the northeast Saturday before stronger cold-air advection builds in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures may peak in the midday then fall with clouds building. Any measurable precipitation should stay well northeast, but there are some indications of freezing drizzle attempting to develop for a brief period around early Saturday afternoon. Soundings show a layer off the surface saturating up to a few thousand feet as isentropic lift ends. Most of the saturation occurs warmer than the ice crystal formation zone, though northern areas may see profile into this zone. With lift ending, saturation rather brief and shallow, and the near-surface layer still on the dry side, have left any mention of this out of the forecast. Downglide and drier air work in during the late afternoon and evening, ending any precipitation. Temperatures Saturday night still look on track to fall into the single digits to around 12 with wind chills around zero.
Warm air quickly returns early next week with strong 850 mb WAA Sunday night into Monday under zonal flow aloft. NBM temperature spreads are notable at this range but confidence is high in above normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. Temperatures may moderate somewhat late in the week with some model consistency in an upper wave crossing the Plains though any precipitation chances remain quite low from Sunday through Friday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1033 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
There are hints from the NAM and GFS for some brief holes in the MVFR CIGS for the next few hours. But the general trend is for the CIGS to remain in place through Saturday until a stronger surge of cold dry air moves in towards 00Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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