textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-A stretch of above average temperatures starts today.

-A series of systems will move through the area into next week, with most coming through dry.

-The next chance for light QPF will be next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Temperatures are back in the 50s and low 60s today, and should remain above average for most, if not all, of this forecast period. Today, a surface trough is moving through northeast KS. Winds are shifting from the west-southwest to the west- northwest. Otherwise, today's trough will not have much impact on current conditions. Aloft, an amplified pattern exists across the country. The forecast area is under northwest flow, however, a large ridge over the western CONUS will continue to expand eastward and temps continue to warm in the lower levels.

A cold front will move through tomorrow morning, bringing in a slightly cooler air mass. Highs should still manage to reach the 50s near and south of I-70, while topping out in the upper 40s north. High pressure from Canada will expand southward into KS on Friday and early Saturday, keeping conditions on the cooler side compared to the rest of the forecast. Strong southerly flow looks to return briefly Saturday afternoon. Temps respond by warming back to near 60 degrees Sunday as the next surface trough quickly traverses the area. Monday looks to be the warmest day, likely warming to near 70 degrees -- just shy of record highs.

The pattern remains fairly active in terms of systems quickly moving across the CONUS into early next week. Long range models seem to agree fairly well on low pressure and a cold front coming through on Tuesday. The highest probabilities for precipitation are currently south of the area, but have maintained a 30 to 40% chance for light rain as the system moves through. Expected QPF remains low with LREF mean values at less than one tenth of an inch.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 519 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A northerly LLJ at 1200-1500 feet above the surface will increase to 45 KTS after 10Z FRI, and cause windshear of 35 KTS at the terminals from 10Z through 15Z FRI. After 15Z FRI the surface winds will increase from the North- northwest at 12 to 16 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS through the afternoon hours. Scattered stratocu will develop during the afternoon at 3000-4000 feet, there may be some periods of BKN stratocu in the afternoon hours.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.