textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning (no severe storms).

- Extreme Fire Danger possible Thursday.

- Cooler today, warm to end the week and then a return to Winter-like temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Early this morning a cold front has moved through the area, bringing cooler and more dry air. Low stratus will continue to develop and overspread the area. A northern stream trough will continue digging into the central Plains this morning. This will provide enough lift for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across portions of east central and northeast Kansas early this morning. No severe storms are expected. As the trough exits to the east later this morning, a tight pressure gradient will develop, leading to breezy northerly wind. Today will will be much cooler as a result, with highs only in the low 50s.

Tomorrow, we will see a quick change to southwesterly wind and warmer temperatures. These strong southwesterly winds (25 mph gusting to 45 mph) may lead to some fire concerns. See the fire weather discussion section below.

A warm-up into the first half of the weekend is expected, with highs returning into the 70s by Saturday.

A big change in the weather is favored to arrive on Sunday as a deep trough digs into the central Plains and a strong cold front swings through. Some light rain, or even some light snow given how strong cold air advection may be, could accompany the front as it swings through. Behind the front, breezy and cold conditions will make it feel like we have returned to winter. Lows Monday morning may dip into the teens.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR becoming MVFR around 12z. Some lingering showers remain east of the terminals at this hour. This activity will continue to move off to the southeast. Additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated by around 10z near all terminals. This additional early morning activity will quickly move off to the southeast and exit that area by 15z. Low stratus will clear from northwest to southeast by the early afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of central, north central and northeast Kansas for the potential of Extreme Fire Danger Thursday.

Strong southwesterly wind (25mph gusting to 45mph) and low relative humidity (around 20%) will combine with dry fuels to potentially lead to Extreme Fire Danger in the watch area. Further to the south and east, minimum relative humidity may not fall quite as far and wind may not be quite as strong. Additionally, areas south of I-70 had some decent rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, if wind speeds continue to trend higher and/or humidity lower, additional areas may be added to the Watch. Regardless, areas that aren't in Extreme Fire Danger will be at a minimum in Very High Fire Danger and therefore burning is not advised areawide.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036.