textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today behind yesterday's cold front with highs in the low 60s.

- Elevated fire danger today and Sunday along Highway 81 in north central Kansas.

- Low temperatures in the 30s could support frost/freeze conditions Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Gusty north winds have built into the region behind yesterday's cold front, ushering a cooler airmass. Temperatures have fallen into the 40s and will likely fall into the 30s for most locales by sunrise. A very dry boundary layer along with elevated winds will limit frost formation. The NBM has a 10-30% chance of temperatures reaching freezing along the Kansas/Nebraska stateline, but the duration would be brief even if temperatures fell to 32 degrees. Continued cold-air advection through the day will limit warming with highs only reaching the low 60s. A perturbation in the northwest flow aloft could spark some high-based showers this afternoon, but very dry air below 700mb should limit this precipitation from reaching the ground. Surface high pressure moves overhead tonight with light winds and clear skies allowing temperatures to fall into the 30s again. Temperatures along the KS/NE stateline may approach freezing; the NBM has a 40-50% chance of temperatures reaching 32 degrees. Weaker winds will be more favorable for frost formation across much of the area, but will hold off on any frost/freeze headlines at this point.

Southwesterly surface winds will bump temperatures back into the 70s on Sunday with mid-level ridging advancing east across the Central and Southern Plains by Monday. Expect warming temperatures Monday into the middle of next week. Guidance differs in the progression of the next western trough, but the approach of this trough brings increased precipitation chances by Wednesday-Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Northwest winds around 10kts this morning become gusty this afternoon, gusting around 20kts. Winds weaken after sunset this evening and become southwesterly overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 204 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Elevated fire danger is expected along Highway 81 in north-central Kansas this weekend. For today, northwest winds sustained at 10-15 MPH become gusty this afternoon, especially across north central Kansas where gusts could reach 30 MPH. Relative humidity values fall to around 20 percent in this area as well. Fire partners indicate green-up has progressed enough to limit fire danger for the majority of the area with the exception of the Highway 81 corridor where fuels are still supportive of dangerous fire behavior. Even after increasing gusts for this afternoon, the rangeland fire danger index remains in the very high category. Will not issue a Red Flag Warning, but burning is discouraged across north central Kansas. Winds are lighter on Sunday (5-15 MPH), but do become west- southwesterly, leading to warmer temperatures and slightly lower relative humidity around 15 percent in north central Kansas. Weaker winds should preclude the need for a Red Flag Warning.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.