textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- High heat continues through Saturday. Heat indices each day peaking from around 100 to around 105 with low temperatures close to daily record highest values.

- Small chances (around 20 percent) for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms linger in and near north-central Kansas through early Thursday. Any severe weather threat is very low.

- Greater chances for thunderstorms area-wide Saturday night with slightly cooler temperatures Sunday into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Upper high over the Ohio Valley and upper trough over the Pacific Northwest was keeping southwest upper flow overhead, with water vapor imagery showing subtropical plume stretching from the western Great Lakes south-southwest into Mexico. Lee troughing at the surface was keeping gusty south winds in place with midday dewpoints again in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Only small changes in the going pattern expected through Thursday. Some chance for more high-based showers with enough in stability for a few thunderstorms will linger in the moisture plume through at least Thursday morning until the upper flow alters to a more zonal pattern to cut off the plume. Convection that forms near the lee trough should struggle to maintain its strength this far northeast in drier 700-850 mb air despite a moderate low-level jet developing.

The next best chance for showers and storms still looks to come Saturday night as a weak boundary settles into Nebraska and sparks convection near it that could translate southeast into eastern Kansas. The overall signal for this has diminished somewhat in recent days but still remains concerning given evening activities. Timing of this could well be after 06Z limiting its impacts and could easily linger into Sunday.

Ensemble data shows low-level temperature fields returning back to near normal levels early next week with elevated 500 mb height anomalies to the north. This suggests temperature and dewpoints closer to normal though may stay somewhat warmer than normal. Until then expect a persistence pattern with highs in the lower to mid 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s to support afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to around 105. Have kept the Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning unchanged at this point with more consistent higher heat in the east where cloud cover and light precip has and should continue to be the most been absent. Prolonged periods of thicker cloud may keep some places somewhat cooler on any given day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue with diurnal wind trends in southerly low-level flow leading to daytime gusts and turbulence to marginal LLWS at night. Precipitation chances remain very low, with MHK nearer better high-level moisture and <20 percent chance for a high-based shower.

CLIMATE

Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature

July 1 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 82 (1933) 77 Concordia 86 (1933) 76

July 2 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 78 (1925) 77 Concordia 78 (1974) 72

July 3 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 76 Concordia 80 (1934) 74

July 4 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1911, 1969) 76 Concordia 82 (1934) 73

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035- KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.