textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Higher chances for showers and storms (40-70%) will be this evening and tonight. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with these storms late this afternoon and this evening across north central KS.

- Near-normal temperatures expected on Sunday before warming above normal Monday through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery showed a broad upper level trough across the Great Lake States/central Ontario. A shorter wave length upper trough was located across western NE/northeast CO on the southwest side of the broad upper level trough across the Great Lakes. An upper level ridge was located across the Great Basin and far southwest US. An upper level trough was located off the Northwest Pacific coast.

The 6Z surface map showed a cold front moving southward across the northern Plains. The front that passed through the CWA yesterday has stalled out across OK and north TX and will be going under frontolysis.Dense fog has developed across western MO and far southeast KS. So far only some patchy dense fog has developed within the river valleys of east central KS.

Today through Tonight:

The H5 trough across western NE will dig southeast across the central and southern Plains. This H5 trough will phase more with the broad upper trough that will lift northeast into the Hudson Bay region of Canada with a trough axis extending southward across MI into the TN River Valley. The surface front will push southward into north central KS late this afternoon. There may be scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing along the front. As DCVA overspread KS ahead of the H5 trough, expect numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop and spread southeast along the surface front. There will be enough ascent for post frontal showers behind the front. The better moisture and instability will remain south and southwest of the CWA across OK and far southern KS. A few CAMs show up to 500 J/KG of MUCAPE this evening across the western counties of the CWA. However, I'm not expecting any of the thunderstorms ahead of the front across the CWA to be severe. I cannot rule out some gusty winds and small hail with any of the stronger storms across the western counties of the CWA late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Most CAMs have the front southeast of the CWA by 6Z SUN, thus, the thunderstorms will exit the area. There will continue to be scattered to numerous showers across the CWA until the H5 trough axis shifts southeast across the CWA. The rain showers should end from northwest to southeast across the CWA during the early morning hours and the scattered showers should be south of the CWA by 9 AM Sunday.

Highs Today ahead of the front should reach the lower to mid 80s.

The NBM forecasts 0.05" to 0.12" this afternoon through Sunday morning. The HREF ensembles forecast slightly higher amounts around 0.17" from Delphos to TOP. Lesser amounts across the southeast counties of the CWA, under 0.1".

Sunday through Sunday night:

Skies should clear Sunday afternoon with cooler temperatures behind the front. Highs will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Sunday night lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s.

Monday through Saturday:

Look for a warming trend through the period. The upper ridge across the western US will begin to shift east into the Plains by Thursday, then as the H5 ridge shifts east the mid level flow will remain zonal. Highs Monday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, Tuesday mid to upper 80s, and a weak FROPA may cool highs Wednesday slightly back to the lower to mid 80s. Thursday through Friday look very warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. There might be some isolated showers and thunderstorms developing across the area by the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR at KFOE/KMHK with shallow fog observed at KTOP. Given the wet ground and calm winds overnight, I anticipate the IFR/MVFR visibilities to persist through sunrise at KTOP. Light winds back to the southwest aft 14Z, becoming gusty through mid afternoon. A fropa arrives at approximately 20Z for KMHK and 23Z for KTOP/KFOE. Winds veer to the west northwest, weakening below 10 kts. Widely scattered showers are noted on model guidance so added a VCSH mention.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.