textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected through the morning hours, especially across Northeast Kansas.

- Heavy rain could lead to flooding through the early morning hours.

- Hot weather is expected to stick around through the end of the week. Showers and storms are possible this weekend with cooler temperatures expected by next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite along with upper air analysis showed an upper trough moving onshore across the west coast. The main upper jet extended around the upper trough along the west coast, northeast across the northern Plains, then northeast into eastern Canada. A broad upper ridge was centered across the Southeast US, with an upper ridge axis extending west-southwest across TX into southern NM. Broad southwesterly mid level flow was observe across KS, with max 500mb wind speeds of 20 KTS.

The 6Z surface map showed a surface cold front extending from the eastern Great Lakes southwest, southwest across southern IL, central MO, far southeast KS, then into the southern TX PNHDL. Showers and elevated thunderstorms continue to develop northwest of the surface front across eastern KS. However, the intensity of the thunderstorms have diminished. There could still be periods of heavier rainfall through the mid morning hours across northeast and north central KS.

Today:

The H5 ridge across the southeast US will retrograde westward into the lower MS River Valley by 00Z THU. The larger scale isentropic ascent will gradually shift northeast of the CWA during the late morning hours. Therefore, the rain showers and elevated thunderstorms should shift northeast of the CWA by this afternoon. Skies should clear through the afternoon hours across the southern counties and high temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s across east central KS as the H5 ridge axis build northward across southeast KS/central MO. The front will be retreating northward but the northern counties will be mostly cloudy with northeast winds and cooler temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The upper low across the western US will amplify across northern CA.

Tonight through Friday night:

The upper low over northern CA will shift east into the Great Basin by Friday afternoon. The H5 ridge will amplify across the southern Plains and eastern KS into southern MO. Expect warm and dry weather. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 80s north and lower to mid 90s north. Heat indices will climb to around 100 degrees during the afternoon hours of Thursday and Friday across east central KS with heat indices in the 90s elsewhere across the CWA.

Saturday through Sunday:

The extended range models are in good agreement with lifting the Great Basin H5 trough northeast into the northern and central high Plains Saturday night, then into the northern Plains late Sunday. A stronger cold front will move through the area Saturday night into Sunday. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. North central KS may see thunderstorms as early as Saturday afternoon. Saturday looks to be our last warm summer like day, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s southeast of the front across east central KS. Highs will be in the lower 80s across the northern counties of the CWA.

On Sunday there may be lingering post frontal showers across the eastern half of the CWA. Highs wil be cooler with lower 70s north and lower 80s across the southeast counties of the CWA.

Sunday night through Wednesday:

The extended range models forecast cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s north and mid to upper 70s south. An H5 trough will move onshore across southern CA Monday night and fill as it lifts northeast across the central Plains through midweek. The ascent ahead of the H5 trough may provide chance for scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Periods of rain with occasional thunderstorms will continue through 9Z at KTOP and KFOE. VFR ceilings at KTOP and KFOE will drop to 600 to 800 feet through 8Z, and the IFR ceilings will continue through late morning. KMHK will see -shra and possibly an isolated thunderstorms through 10Z. IFR ceilings will continue until the late morning hours. Skies will become partly cloudy during the mid afternoon hours with VFR conditions.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011- KSZ012-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.