textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday into Wednesday and again Thursday night into Friday night (50-85% for both).

- Some of the storms Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night may produce 1 inch hail

- There will be another chance for severe storms Thursday night through Friday night.

- Temperatures return to above normal Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Most deterministic and ensemble blend models are in good agreement with an upper level trough across the western US shifting east across the Plains Wednesday night.

As the H5 trough moves east across the central Rockies, a lee side sfc low will deepen across the TX PNHDL Tuesday. A surface front will also push southward across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Tuesday. Ahead of the surface front, Tuesday afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 60s across the far southeast counties of the CWA. North of the front highs will only reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. 850mb moisture advection will increase the isentropic lift across the CWA during the afternoon hours. The MUCAPE should remain below 500 J/KG, so we may see rain with a few elevated thunderstorms. During the evening hours as the H5 trough moves east into the central and southern high Plains, DCVA ahead of the H5 trough will over spread the region and cause additional ascent for more widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Tuesday evening, MUCAPE will increase to 800-1200 J/KG with effective shear increasing to 40 KTS. Thus, a few of the elevated storms may produce small hail. If any of the elevated storm begin to develop mid level rotation, then there may be some severe hail, with the best chance south of I-70. Through the night the cooler air mass will become deeper as the front surges southward across OK. The better isentropic lift will shift south of the CWA during the morning hours of Wednesday. However, ascent ahead of the H5 trough will keep periods of rain falling through Wednesday. East central KS will see the highest rainfall amounts from Tonight through Wednesday with 0.5 to 0.75 inches expected. The western half of the CWA will only see 0.1 to 0.25 inches of rainfall.

Long term forecast...

Thursday through Monday:

The H5 trough across the eastern Plains early Thursday morning will lift northeast across the southern Great Lakes. An H5 trough will move into the Western US on Thursday. A lee sfc trough will deepen across the high Plains and southerly winds across eastern KS will allow high temperatures on Thursday to warm into the lower to mid 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, a strong LLJ will develop across the Plains and advect richer moisture north. Elevated thunderstorms will develop during the early morning hours of Friday and some of these elevated storms may produce severe hail. The ECMWF and Canadian models show the H5 trough across the western US shearing out a bit and becoming more positively tilted. This may keep the Pacific front/dryline across west central KS during the late afternoon hours, where the environment will be favorable for supercell thunderstorms. These storms will move into north central KS but will probably begin to congeal into line segments as they move east across the CWA. The primary hazard will switch to more of a wind and hail threat during the evening and overnight hours. However, the GFS model is more progressive and shifts the H5 trough a bit farther east, which could push the dryline/Pacific front across north central KS during Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop along the dryline/Pacific front will be in an environment with strong vertical windshear and perhaps moderate instability, especially if skies clear after the morning storms. The combination of strong vertical wind shear and MLCAPES of 1500-2500 J/kg may cause some thunderstorms to evolve into supercell thunderstorms with all hazards possible. We are still four days away and the numerical model solutions will most likely change over time.

Look for drier weather heading into next weekend with a slight cool down on Saturday with highs in the 50s. Temperatures will warm into the 60s early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The IFR stratus ceilings will hold through the afternoon hours. This evening light fog and drizzle will develop, which will drop stratus ceilings down to LIFR and visibilities may drop to 1 to 2 miles during the early morning hours of Tuesday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.