textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold, arctic air arrives Friday with wind chills as low as - 15 to -20 degrees Friday into Monday. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued starting Friday continuing into Sunday morning.

- Snow to begin Friday evening, continuing into early Sunday morning. Confidence overall has increased and thus expanded the Winter Storm Watch for much of the area (excluding far northern Kansas)

- Widespread Snowfall totals of 5-7 inches can be expected for areas along and south of I-70 with lesser totals closer to northern Kansas. Areas along east-central Kansas could see totals creep towards the 7- 10 inch range.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The much anticipated weekend storm system is noted off the coast of south-central CA as northwesterly flow associated a large low over the northern Great Lakes envelopes much of the north and central Plains. Moisture is noted streaming in from Baja California and will be some of the moisture that brings a large swath of snow to the central and eastern US. In the short-term, one more day of mild and dry weather will be expected today as highs reach the low to mid 40s.

A very notable change comes Thursday night as an arctic front associated with the large upper low to our northeast moves in from the north, plummeting temperatures from the low 30s Thursday evening into the single digits by Friday morning. In addition to the cold, gusty winds are expected to continue behind the front for much of the day Friday pushing wind chills well below zero. For areas north of I-70 Friday, the quicker onset of single digit temperatures has prompted issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory as wind chills around - 15 degrees are expected into the evening. By the evening, the remainder of the area will get added to the Advisory with wind chills of -15 to -20 degrees expected to persist into Sunday. Wind chills are expected to stay below zero into Monday (85-95% chances) so will likely need to extend the Cold weather advisory down the line. Lows Saturday and Sunday will reflect the arctic airmass well, bottoming out between 0 and -5 degrees. Saturday will see the least relief from the cold with high temperatures likely not getting above the low single digits.

Now lets talk snow... Overall consensus between ensemble guidance and new mid range guidance depicts a north-shift in higher snow totals and slightly more QPF. As of now, one of the main outliers for QPF is the determinist GFS. Even the GEFS and AIGFS has total QPF higher by 0.15-0.2" when compared to the deterministic solution. That said, snowfall ranges still remain remain rather large. Let's dive into where that stems from. Past runs in most guidance depicts good agreement with the upper level storm track; a southwesterly cyclone coming into phase with a shortwave embedded in northwesterly flow over the northern Plains Friday evening. As this phased wave enters the Rockies Saturday morning, it begins to take on a neutral tilt leading to a strengthening area of upper level divergence downstream (ie. the southern and central Plains). Coupled jet dynamics should increase upper and mid level lift across the central and southern Plains Friday evening and early Saturday morning. At the same time Friday evening, the very cold and dry airmass near the surface will try to begin to saturate as 850mb and 700mb WAA increases. This initial dry air may hold off initial precipitation until 9PM or so Friday evening, but once the lowest 700mb becomes more saturated, decent snowfall rates will become realized. Snow rates in this case are on the tricky side as there will not be robust mesoscale dynamics across eastern Kansas. We will likely need help from jet dynamics aloft and low level WAA/isentropic ascent for lift. Luckily, the arctic air mass will keep saturated profiles cold enough to remain in the DGZ through most of the cloud. This should promote SLRs for the event ranging from 15:1-20:1 from south to north respectively. As long there is sufficient lift - something that model guidance has increased over the past 12 hours - light to moderate snow showers will remain likely. That said, the best timeframe for this lift to reside over eastern and northeastern Kansas will be from Friday night into mid Saturday morning. Some hints of weakening lift in the column comes Saturday afternoon.

By Saturday evening, another round of snow will begin to develop as the southern end of the trough rotates into western Oklahoma and Texas. This should move a deepened 850mb cyclone across Oklahoma with some chances for heavier snow bands to develop on the north side of the cyclone. There still remains some uncertainty with how far north this band of snow could get with majority of guidance keeping it south of I-70. This could further add to snow totals and may even add the most significant snowfall to the area given the more robust potential for mesoscale banding. Snow showers with the second wave begin to come to an end by Sunday morning. Given the high SLRs, increase in confidence of higher QPF (NBM probs give a 75-90% chance to exceed 0.25" and a 50-70% chance to exceed 0.4" for areas along and south of I-70) and widespread lift with the system, expecting much of the area to see at least 4-5 inches on the lower end with areas along and south of I-70 possibly seeing totals upwards of 7-10 inches. Have thus expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include all but the furthest northern row of counties along the Nebraska border. With potential snowpack lingering into Monday and minimal change in flow, Monday morning will again see temperatures dipping below zero. Luckily, a pattern change moves in later Monday and Tuesday, returning winds back to southwest and warming temperatures back towards freezing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1013 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Little change to the going forecast. Relatively dry air is expected to keep VFR conditions in place while surface ridging keeps winds light. A cold front is progged to push south Thursday evening with strengthening winds behind the FROPA.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to noon CST Sunday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056- KSZ058-KSZ059. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.