textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Relatively cool and unsettled weather is expected to continue through the workweek.

- The better chances for showers and storms are expected Tuesday and Thursday night. Some of these storms could be severe.

- Warmer weather with mainly dry conditions is forecast this weekend, with hot and humid conditions returning next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Early this morning an upper trough was located across the OH River valley extending south to the Gulf coast. An upper trough was located across south central Canada with an upper trough axis extending southward across the northern high Plains. A broad upper level ridge axis extended from southern CA, east-southeast into far south TX. The mid level flow across the Plains was northwesterly.

The 6Z surface map showed a surface cold front extending from the OH River valley, southwest across southern AR into north TX. Frontolysis was taking place across the high plains as surface winds have become southeasterly and richer moisture was advecting northwest.

Today through Thursday night:

As the H5 trough across the northern high Plains shifts east, a mid level perturbations on the southern end of the H5 trough axis will dig southeast across the Plains. The axis of highest instability will set up across northern OK and extend northwest into western KS and far eastern CO. Upslope flow and ascent ahead the mid level perturbation will cause thunderstorms to develop across eastern CO and western KS this afternoon. These storms will grow upscale into a complex of severe thunderstorms and move southeast across southwest and south central KS into northern OK. The instability axis may build north to provide 1000-1500 J/KG of MUCAPE through the evening hours and overnight. Thus any thunderstorms that develop farther north on the high plains across western NE may hold together and provide a chance for strong to severe storms to the western and far southern counties of the CWA. However, most of the severe thunderstorms will occur west and south of the CWA. Most CAM models show the more intense convection developing in western KS and shifting southeast across southwest and south central KS. If we do get thunderstorms this evening and overnight, the primary hazard would be marginally severe hail, gusty winds that may reach severe limits in isolated areas, and brief heavy rainfall.

A slightly more amplified perturbation will round the southwestern US H5 ridge axis and move east across KS/OK Thursday afternoon and night. The mid and upper level flow will veer to become more zonal. Once again, thunderstorms will develop across western KS and eastern CO, forming a complex of severe storms. The instability will be a bit better farther north, with 1000-2000 J/KG but the higher instability will be located across southern KS and northern OK. I think there may be a better chance for thunderstorm line segments to move across the CWA, especially south of I-70, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

A cold front will move southward across the CWA on Thursday but the chances for storms will continue into Thursday. If the atmosphere recovers ahead of the front, across the southern counties of the CWA there may be another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. The cold front will become stationary along the KS/OK border Thursday night.

Friday through Saturday night:

An H5 trough across the western US will shift east towards the central Rockies. Stronger mid level flow across the central Rockies will cause a lee trough to deepen across the central high Plains. This will cause the stationary front along the OK border to move north as a warm front friday night into Saturday, which may provide convergence for showers and thunderstorms. A mid level perturbation may also provide ascent for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday through tuesday:

A portion of the broad upper H5 trough across the west central US will begin to lift out into the central and northern Plains Sunday into Monday. A downstream broad H5 ridge will amplify northwest from the lower mid MS River valley. The remainder of the H5 trough across the western US will begin to fill, as the lead H5 trough lifts northeast into central Canada. Expect high temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 90s. Afternoon heat indices will rise to 100 degrees across the northern counties to around 107 degrees across east central KS.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Expect VFR conditons. Most CAMs show the showers and thunderstorms over western NE dissipating before they get to the terminals this afternoon. After midnight a new batch of showers and thunderstorms will stay mainly shout but there may be some widely scattered showers and storms after 6Z WED. MVFR stratus may also develop after 6Z WED

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.