textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible (30-50%) this afternoon with some lingering uncertainty in severity coverage and location. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main hazards with a lesser probability for tornadoes.

- Dry and seasonably cool period returns this weekend with a gradual warmup and modest rain/storm chances from Tuesday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Today and This Evening

PV anomaly is currently rotating across WY early this morning, while upstream mid level perturbation is spreading east towards the central plains. As this initial wave approaches before sunrise, the warm front over southeast KS lifts back northward into the area, increasing southeast winds from 15-25 mph along with low stratus. The depth and longevity of the stratus lingering into the afternoon remains the main deterrent in more robust updrafts by the mid afternoon. A strong cold front is progged to sweep eastern Kansas after 1 PM when the capping inversion erodes. And while there is consistency among CAM guidance of the frontal boundary's location and narrow line of convection forming along it, differences in updraft helicity and overall severity in storms is unclear. By around 21Z, if we can observe some clearing prior to the front, forecast CAPE maximizes around 3000 J/KG while bulk 0-6 KM shear is 30-40 kts. Shear vectors are mostly parallel to the boundary, bolstering confidence in mainly a large hail and damaging wind event. Good low level shear/curvature noted on hodographs ahead of this line however suggest a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The line of storms should clear to the east by 02Z.

Saturday - Tuesday

Cool high pressure settles sfc winds by Saturday morning, allowing lows to fall into the low 30s. High temps quickly rebound to near normal in the 60s from Sunday onward. A stationary boundary sets up over the state on Monday, lending to below average confidence in highs Monday ranging from the low 50s north to middle 60s south. Still monitoring a progressive open wave bringing light precip early Tuesday morning as the front lifts to the KS/NE border. NBM probs are overall on the low side for QPF (less than 0.05 inches) while snow probs are less than 20% and generally north of I-70.

Wednesday - Friday

Upper pattern turns active again as a northern stream wave forces another slow moving cold front Thursday-Friday. Widespread rain chances are modest during this period, perhaps a few stronger storms by the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Low MVFR stratus continues to expand northward over terminals this morning and should persist through late afternoon. Southeast winds initially veer to the south by 15Z, increasing from 15-22kts sustained throughout the afternoon. Gusts over 30 kts are likely. Confidence is high for a line of TSRA to develop east of KMHK before impacting KTOP/KFOE from 20-23Z. As storms exit with the cold front, winds veer to the northwest at 10-15 kts.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.