textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The rain is over. A dry and pleasant stretch begins today and lasts through next week, giving swollen rivers time to fall.

- A crisp fall weekend follows with highs near 70, lows in the 40s, and patchy fog may be possible each morning over the recently saturated ground.

- A warming trend takes hold next week with highs around 80 by Wednesday, which is still near to slightly above normal for this time of year, staying mainly dry as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 446 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The 00Z RAOB data show the deep trough responsible for this week's heavy rainfall stretching from the Great Lakes into the Mid-South, carrying the storm system and its moisture axis east of the area. WV imagery suggests a dry, subsident northwest flow over the entire CWA with surface high pressure building in today, helping to push the last of the remnant showers east of the area before daybreak or shortly after. The airmass change will finally bring a fall-like feel to the area with afternoon dewpoints falling into the 40s today. The rain is finished, but recovery from the flooding lingers as area rivers will take much of the weekend to recede.

The weekend will be quiet and crisp, very fall-like. Highs hold near 70 both days with overnight lows in the 40s, light winds, and wide diurnal temperature swings under mostly clear skies. The potential for fog can't yet be ruled out but looks overall low: temperature-dewpoint spreads generally narrow around sunrise with light winds over ground still saturated from the flooding, so if patchy fog does form it would likely be focused in river valleys and low-lying spots, especially Saturday morning with the surface ridge centered across the area. A reinforcing dry push Sunday night keeps Monday seasonably cool with another morning in the 40s.

In the extended period, the upper ridge amplifies over the Western CONUS this weekend and spreads east across the Plains next week, and every WPC cluster through the end of next week keeps positive height anomalies centered over the central CONUS, and no cluster brings a meaningful weather system through the area. Ensemble precipitation stays near zero through the period and highs climb steadily, reaching near 80 by Wednesday with lower 80s possible late in the week, which is around to slightly above normal for this time of year. Breezier south winds return by late week as the ridge axis shifts east and the gradient tightens across the region with a lee trough deepening. Slight thunderstorm signals toward the end of the period reflect growing ensemble spread rather than any organized system impacting the region. Confidence in the dry, slightly warming forecast through the upcoming week is high.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions through the period with a northeasterly breeze this morning and afternoon before calming this evening. Fog appears to be unlikely overall but can't rule out patchy fog in valley areas late this period considering the recent moisture across the region.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.