textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm over the next week with potential record highs Christmas Eve and Day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Minimal changes in the synoptic pattern are noted on mid-level water vapor imagery as zonal flow persists over much of the central and eastern US. A passage of a clipper low across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region has helped push a surface trough and pacific front across the area this morning flipping winds out of the NNE. This and broken high clouds have limited warming this afternoon with much of the area already reaching high temperatures as of 1 PM. Expect winds to decrease through the afternoon as surface ridging builds in from the north. Similar temperatures can be expected Sunday (upper 40s and low 50s) as winds shift back to the south behind the east passage of the surface ridge.

The main warmup builds in Sunday night and into Monday as an embedded shortwave within the zonal flow ejects off the Colorado Rockies and deepens a lee cyclone across the high Plains. Warm 925mb air will be expected to mix towards the surface Monday pushing temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. Minimal changes in airmass occurs behind the passage of the shortwave Monday into Tuesday with temperatures Tuesday afternoon again topping out in the upper 50s and low 60s. More aggressive warming moves in Wednesday and Thursday (Christmas day) with a large upper ridge building across much of the central and southern US. Each afternoon, ~20C 925mb temperatures streaming in from the southwest will mix to the surface pushing temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s - close to records. See below for official records and forecast values. There may be some embedded lobes of vorticity push in by late Thursday night that could bring a modified cold front through the area, any appreciable CAA should not come until overnight into Friday morning. By Friday, the weak CAA from the surface boundary will help to drop high temperatures back towards 60 degrees - still 16 degrees above average. Some variability comes next weekend as temperatures spreads remain large. Some deterministic guidance has another ridge building across the central US as others keep more of a zonal flow pattern and cooler air closing in from the north. Regardless, the extended forecast remains dry.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1035 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Light ENE winds overnight increase from the SSE to near 10kts Sunday morning. The low-level jet strengthens to 40-45kts Sunday night, potentially leading to LLWS conditions just beyond this TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Record Forecast Normal

Dec 24 High Topeka 74 (2021) 70 42 Concordia 68 (1889) 61 39

Dec 25 Warm Low Topeka 50 (2019) 48 22 Concordia 46 (1936) 41 20

Dec 25 High Topeka 68 (1922, 2016) 72 41 Concordia 64 (1950, 2016) 68 39

Dec 26 Warm Low Topeka 51 (1959) 41 22 Concordia 43 (1931) 39 20

Dec 26 High Topeka 67 (2008) 61 41 Concordia 64 (1959, 2008) 60 39

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.