textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms become likely Thursday night, mainly overnight into Friday morning. A few of these could be severe with 1 to 1.5 inch hail being the primary hazard.

- Friday afternoon/evening brings the best chance for severe storms this week. Uncertainty still exist in storm mode and associated hazards.

- Dry weather returns this weekend with above average temperatures into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1154 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Short term forecast...

Today through Saturday:

The low amplitude H5 trough across the central Plains Today will shift east into the Mid MS River Valley on Thursday. A down stream H5 ridge will amplify across the Plains. We may see some insolation Thursday afternoon which will help high temperatures to warm into the 60s. An H5 trough moving onshore across the Pacific NW will dig southeast into the southwestern US Thursday night, then shear apart, with the northern branch H5 trough lifting northeast across eastern CO/western KS into central NE by 00Z SAT.

Thursday night, A lee surface trough will deepen across eastern CO southward across eastern NM. Southerly low-level flow and a LLJ of 50 KTS will transport richer moisture northward across eastern KS. The resulting isentropic lift will cause elevated thunderstorms to develop, some of which could be severe, with the primary hazard being one inch or greater size hail

Friday, the big question is how long will the elevated thunderstorms continue through the morning hours and will skies clear enough to destabilize the warm sector. A surface low will deepen across southwest KS/OK PNHDL through 12 Noon. A cold front will push southeast across northwest KS and extend southwest into the surface low. A dry line will shift east across the OK PNHDL and TX PNHDL

If the warm sector can destabilize sufficiently with MLCAPES of 1000-1500 J/KG, DCVA may cause sufficient ascent for thunderstorms to develop ahead of the surface cold front during the mid and late afternoon hours across the CWA. These storms may become discrete supercells. The forecast hodographs will will have curvature from the sfc up to 850mb. Therefore, the low-level vertical wind shear will produce streamwise horizontal vorticity in which updrafts will tilt, stretch to become supercell thunderstorms. Any supercell thunderstorms that develop will be capable to produce large hail over 2 inches in diameter and possible tornadoes. This will be more of a high vertical wind shear and low MLCAPE environment. If the warm sector does not recover during the mid and late afternoon hours then discrete supercells may not form within the warm sector.

During the afternoon hours a surface cold front will push southeast into north central KS. Once the front reaches the richer Gulf moisture a line of storms will develop. This line will push southeast across the CWA during the late afternoon and evening hours. The primary hazard with the line of storms would be severe wind gusts. However, a stronger embedded updraft within the line could produce large hail. I can not rule out some weak mesovortex tornadoes with in the line as it shifts southeast across northeast and east central KS.

Friday afternoon severe weather threat will be conditional on storm modes and resulting hazards, and will depend on how quick the warm sector can recover from the morning showers and storms. Even if we do destabilize sufficiently the ascent ahead of the H5 trough may not lead to storm initation within the warm sector. Only the NSSL MPAS model runs show thunderstorms developing in the warm sector. Surface based convergence along the cold front may be needed for storm initiation, and these storms will rapidly back build into a line of storms. This line will probably become severe as it encounters the richer moisture across northeast east central KS late Friday afternoon and evening. The low-level winds will veer ahead of the cold front, thus decreasing the tornado threat. However, weak mesovortex tornadoes may still be possible within the line. But the primary hazard with a line of storms will be severe wind gusts.

The line of storms will move southeast of the CWA during the late evening hours of Friday.

Saturday, will be a bit cooler with highs in the lower to mid 50s but skies should clear through the mid and late morning hours.

Long term forecast...

Sunday through Wednesday:

Look for a warming trend Sunday into Tuesday, ahead of the next cold front. The southern stream H5 trough across northern Mexico will amplify a southern stream H5 ridge across the southern Plains.

Southerly winds will help highs to warm into the mid to upper 60s on Sunday, mid to upper 70s on Monday, and lower to mid 70s on Tuesday.

The southern stream H5 portions of the H5 trough that retrograded southwest into northern Mexico will lift northeast and phase with a northern stream H5 trough across the mid MS River Valley. A surface cold front will push southeast across the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. There may be enough ascent ahead of the H5 trough and convergence along the cold front for scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and through the evening hours.

Wednesday will be cooler with highs in the mid 40s north to lower 50s south.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

IFR to LIFR cigs at KTOP/KFOE this evening and overnight with primarily MVFR cigs at KMHK. Drizzle and/or fog is likely to reduce VSBY at KTOP/KFOE through mid-morning Thursday. Maintained VSBY reduction from fog at KMHK as well, although confidence is not as high. Uncertainty exists in how quickly cigs lift to MVFR and eventually VFR on Thursday. Some guidance shows VFR conditions by 15-16z while others hold MVFR cigs through much of the afternoon. Current TAF lies in between these two solutions.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.