textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impact the area this afternoon into Sunday morning. Gusty winds are possible with these showers/storms.

- Conditions become dry through the morning Sunday with highs near-normal.

- Above-normal temperatures are expected Monday through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A mid-level shortwave is moving southeast across Rockies this afternoon with a surface low centered along the KS/CO state line and a cold front advancing south across southern Nebraska. Lift ahead of the main shortwave has generated scattered elevated showers that have been spreading west to east across the area; this trend will continue through the afternoon. Instability is weak (< 500 J/kg) which will limit the severe potential, but steep low-level lapse rates and inverted-V soundings will support gusty winds (30-40 MPH) with showers or storms.

Rain and isolated storms continue overnight into Sunday morning as the aforementioned Rockies shortwave ejects across the Central Plains. CAMs vary in coverage and location of precipitation overnight; best chances for showers and storms are across central and southern Kansas. Meager instability will support mainly rain with a few embedded rumbles of thunder, although the environment could still support some gusty winds under any showers/storms. Conditions dry out through the morning with clearing skies for Sunday afternoon. A cooler post-frontal airmass will keep temperatures closer to climatological norms with highs near 70 degrees.

Temperatures warm Monday and Tuesday as a mid-level ridge pushes east towards the Plains. A closed low is progged to dive southeast towards the Great Lakes on Tuesday, which will push a cold front through the area. Better moisture and ascent will be northeast of the area, but ensembles have shown an increasing signal for some rain/storms across east-central Kansas with this feature. Predictability decreases Thursday through the end of next week. Mid- level ridging is progged to build over the Southern and Central Plains Thursday, supporting above-normal temperatures. Highs Friday and Saturday are looking likely to eclipse the 90 degree mark for most locales. Several passing waves lead to at least low chances for showers and storms Thursday into the weekend, but variability in guidance leads to low confidence in details.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions dominate the period. Chances for showers increase this evening, but coverage remains uncertain. Better chances for rain and isolated storms come overnight. Have maintained a PROB30 group due to lower confidence in coverage, timing, and direct impact of TS to terminals. Showers/storms could produce gusty winds around 30kts if they impact terminals. Rain comes to an end Sunday morning. West-southwest winds to begin the period become northeasterly overnight.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.