textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Overnight showers and storms are gradually exiting eastward this morning; lingering showers are possible during the day Sunday followed by another round of showers and storms in the evening. Severe weather is not expected Sunday evening.

- Fall temperatures finally arrives on Sunday, settling into the region next week with highs in the low 70s to middle 60s.

- Widespread storm chances return by late week accompanied by another cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A fairly active evening of convection is beginning to slow down across eastern Kansas as the main shortwave axis having slid east into northwest MO. Storms that developed off the high Plains over the past 6 hours have tracked into central KS and will continue to move east through the early morning hours. Given how worked-over the environment is, expectations are for these storms to be sub-severe, but could see some gusty winds as they continue a weakening trend and eastward progression. Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will also be expected to develop near the 850mb boundary that is currently near the I-35 corridor. Recent radar analysis and satellite observations confirm this as convection has continued to develop over the past hour or two. Again, not expecting these to be severe, but a storm or two could briefly become strong with gusty winds as the main concern.

The remainder of the day will be much cooler in comparison to the previous days with ample cloud cover and weak CAA limiting afternoon highs to the upper 60s and low 70s. Weak mid-level ascent should persist across the region through the day today that will keep isolated to scattered chances for showers and a few thunderstorms in the area. Highest precipitation chances should remain across far east-central KS, closest to the low-level boundaries. That said, severe weather is not expected.

Monday - Saturday:

Ensemble guidance is in overall decent agreement in building a strong surface high southward from the plains into the Midwest regions through mid week. Meanwhile, broad upper ridge axis spreads east into the region, returning dry and cooler conditions. Extensive cloud cover behind the front and persistent cold advection will maintain the well-below-average highs down into the upper 60s and lower 70s through Wednesday. The upper ridge translates eastward by Thursday as a northern stream perturbation enters the region. Low chance pops also return Thursday into Friday (20-50%) given the variances on timing of the system and subsequent precipitation coming off the western high plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

CIGs over the course of the first several hours of the period will fall into MVFR status with some IFR CIGs expected near KMHK. Put mention of scattered storm potential in at KTOP and KFOE as short- term guidance seems fairly confident that storms redevelop around the I-35 corridor early Sunday morning. Kept CIGs MVFR through the remainder of the period as it is a bit uncertain how quickly, if at all, low stratus will mix out. Guidance depicts another push of cooler air and stratus to move in again by the late period at all sites so opted to keep the MVFR mention.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.