textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Record highs forecast Today.

-Elevated fire danger remains a concern through Tuesday.

-Rain chances return, with several opportunities for beneficial rainfall Tuesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 403 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper trough located across the Pacific Northwest. A second upper trough was located across the eastern Pacific off the CA coast. Zonal flow was note across the CONUS.

The 7Z surface map showed a lee surface Trough along the CO/KS border. A warm front was lifting northward across SD and extend eastward across central WI into northern MI. Southerly winds, along with temperatures in the mid 50s north and lower to mid 60s across the central and southern portions of the CWA.

Today through Tonight:

The H5 trough across Pacific Northwest will shift east into the northern high Plains by 00Z TUE. Expect mostly sunny skies with breezy south winds of 15 to 25 MPH and gusts to 30 to 40 MPH. The low-level WAA will help afternoon highs to reach the mid to upper 80s. A few location may hit the 90 degree mark.

Tuesday through Saturday:

The H5 trough across the northern high Plains will move east across the norther Plains into the upper Midwest early on Tuesday. Low- level CAA across the northern Plains will cause a cold front to push southward across the central Plains, then across the CWA during the day on Tuesday. The front will pass south of the CWA by 00Z. Most CAMs show the front moving through dry, without any showers or thunderstorms developing ahead of the front across the CWA, but once the front hits the richer moisture extending from central TX, northeast across southeast KS and into central MO, a line of storms may develop in the evening hours. This line of storms maybe severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts possible.

The H5 trough over the eastern Pacific will move onshore across southern CA on Tuesday, then move east into the southwestern US by 12Z WED. A stronger mid level jet across AZ will lift northeast across the central Rockies. A lee sfc low will deepen across the southern TX PNHDL. At 850mb a trough of low pressure will deepen across eastern CO, south into west TX, this cause the 850 winds to back to more to the south. Richer moisture at 850mb will advect northward over the front and the resulting isentropic lift will cause elevated thunderstorms across the counties, which will develop farther northwest across most of the CWA through the early morning hour of Wednesday.

Highs on Tuesday will be warm ahead of the surface cold front into the lower to mid 80s across east central KS. The northwest counties will see highs in the mid to upper 60s behind the front.

The effective shear above the LFC will be close to 40 KTS, therefore some of the elevated thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could produce severe hail, mainly quarter size but if some of the elevated storms develop mid level rotation, the hail could be larger. The 12KM NAM shows 1200-1500 J/KG of MUCAPE developing through the early morning hours.

Wednesday, towards the late morning the stronger isentropic lift will shift northward into NE. The RRFS CAM along with the ECMWF, show the warm front over northern OK, lifting northward across east central KS during the afternoon hours. As the H5 trough across the southwestern US lifts northeast into the high plains the resulting ascent ahead of the H5 trough will cause showers and thunderstorms to develop south and north of the warm front. The warm front may may reach to a Holton to MHK, to Abilene line during the mid and late afternoon hours. Thunderstorms that develop in the warm sector may be surface based with southeasterly surface winds. Curved hodographs profiles may support surfaced base supercell, that may grow upstream into a line of storms across east central KS. Any surface based storms Wednesday afternoon into the evening will be capable of producing damaging winds along with large hail. The northern counties, north of the warm front will see elevated storms developing, which may produce sever hail. There still a lot of uncertainties in the evolution of the surface patter but in any event we will see some beneficial rainfall late Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

Wednesday, if the warm front moves north across east central KS, highs may warm into the 70s, with lower to mid 50s north of the warm front.

Thursday, the H5 trough over the Plains will lift northeast into the southern MN/IA/northern MO. A pacific front will move east of the cWA during the mid morning hours and we should see the rain end from west to east across the CWA during the morning and early afternoon hours.

Highs Thursday will be slightly cooler across the CWA with mid 50s north and lower to mid 60s southeast.

Friday, a more amplified H5 trough will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest and dig southeast across the central Rockies. The Pacific cold front will become stationary then lift northward early Friday morning into southern NE. There may be more elevated thunderstorms during the early morning hours of Friday. As DCVA over spread western KS,A surface low will develop during the late morning hours across central KS. This surface low will move northeast across the CWA during the afternoon hours. A strong mid level jet of 50 KTS will over spread eastern KS towards 00Z. Strong ascent and a cold front on the back side of the surface low will add surface convergence for showers and thunderstorms. If discrete thunderstorms develop across the warm sector, the shear profiles would support possible supercell. However, if we stay cloudy with elevated showers and storms through the day, we may not see sufficient instability for severe thunderstorms. It's way too early to determine if any storms will be severe but the pattern looks favorable, if we are able to destabilize the atmosphere during the afternoon hours. Once the cold front moves through Friday evening we will see rain and elevated thunderstorms continue overnight as the upper trough axis will be entering western KS. The rain and elevated storms will move east of the areas during the morning hours and there may be lingering showers through the afternoon hours across east central KS.

Highs on Friday will be in the mid 70s in the ward sector, with lower to mid 60s across the northern counties north of the surface warm front.

Lets look at the total rainfall from Tuesday night through Saturday. The LREF shows a 60 to 80 percent probability of 1 or more inches of rainfall across the eastern half of the CWA. The western half of the CWA has only a 30 to 50 percent probability of 1" or more inches. The NBM (National Blend of Models) have 2 inches of QPF across much of east central KS with 3 to 4 inch QPF totals across the far southeast counties. The central counties of the CWA have 1 to 2 inches of QPF the western counties have 0.75 to 1 inch of QPF.

Sunday through Monday:

Look for dry conditions with a warming trends as the mid level flow become zonal. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Sunday will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southerly winds will increase to 13 to 18 KTS with gusts of 23 to 29 KTS after 14Z and continue through the night. The stronger winds Tonight should prevent low-level wind shear from increasing over 30 KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 403 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Today:

Expect a very high fire danger this afternoon. Minimum RHs will range from 25 to 35 percent across the region this afternoon. Southerly winds will be 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 30 to possibly 40 MPH at times. Due to the winds and dry fuels, fires will be difficult to control

Tuesday:

Expect another very high fire danger. A cold front will be moving southeast across the area during the late morning and afternoon hours. Ahead of the cold front south-southwest winds will be 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH, once the front moves through, winds will switch to the north-nothwest at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH. The winds switch will make fighting any fires difficult. Minimum RHs will be in the 25 to 35 percent range.

We will see a break in the elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday through next weekend as temperatures will be cooler, RHs will be higher, and there will be chances for rain.

CLIMATE

Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Record High Temperature for March 30:

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1943) 88 Concordia 89 (1917) 88

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.