textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat headlines remain in effect through Saturday across eastern portions of the area, though it will still be hot and humid area- wide.

- Thunderstorms may enter the area from southern Nebraska overnight tonight with wind as the primary hazard if they do.

- Plenty of uncertainty remains with the Independence Day holiday as timing and location of storms will be highly dependent on the setup following the previous night.

- Mostly dry weather is forecast early next week with slightly lower heat indices.

UPDATE

Issued at 843 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Models have done a poor job of simulating the convection ongoing across north central KS this morning. Based on recent radar trend, have added some POPs with coverage wording for the western counties this morning. The 06Z NAM and 11Z RAP show the low level jet weakening and backing to the south over the next few hours. As this occurs the moisture advection and lift is expected to weaken and allow the convection to fall apart. So only have a mention of showers and storms until 11am or so.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Upper ridge is holding strong over the southeastern CONUS while a trough is noted over the Great Basin region, leaving southwesterly flow aloft for the Rockies and Central Plains. Weak perturbations have led to areas of convection in parts of ND/SD/NE/IA. Enough mid- level moisture is streaming through the flow aloft to bring high clouds across the Southern Plains and into KS. Little is expected to change with the large-scale pattern today, though the upper ridge is progged to flatten some heading into Saturday (more on that later). For today, will need to monitor weakening showers and thunderstorms in northwest KS early this morning to see if any of that activity makes it into north central KS zones. Isentropic lift appears rather weak, so am not confident this will maintain itself and CAMs generally agree. Have kept a dry forecast, but cloud cover could potentially keep temperatures from warming up as quickly in the morning. Even so, afternoon temperatures should have no problem reaching the low to mid 90s. Heat indices are once again forecast in the triple digits, but slightly lower where deeper mixing helps lower dew points. Have made no changes to the ongoing heat headlines.

By the early evening hours, another subtle perturbation looks to eject across the Central Rockies/Plains and trigger storms along an outflow boundary in central Nebraska, which then evolve into an MCS that moves southeast. There are varying ideas on how far south this will go into our forecast area, with the HRRR notably being the southernmost solution. The 06z run has shown a delay in timing with storms entering our north closer to 3-4am instead of midnight like the 00z/18z runs. This later and more southern solution would result in storms lingering longer through Saturday morning and would push an outflow boundary further south as well, which could mean cooler temperatures than forecast. Other CAMs also show a boundary somewhere in our area Saturday, so the location of this will be key in where storms have the best chance to redevelop later and probably won't be known for certain until we see the early morning storms roll through. Given latest trends and consistency of the HRRR, indications are that the threat with later storms may be greatest in southern parts of the area. Timing and severity remain uncertain, but still look to be focused more toward the late evening and overnight hours with wind as the main concern.

Early next week looks a bit less hot with the exiting shortwave rounding the ridge and giving us north winds briefly. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s. Towards mid-week, however, the ridge becomes more established again with rising heights helping to return temperatures to the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Southerly winds pick up mid to late morning sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts at times through about sunset. Confidence is too low in storms reaching terminals towards the end of the period for mention, although an outflow boundary may lead to variable wind direction at times late in this period.

CLIMATE

Updated at 342 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature

July 3 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 76 Concordia 80 (1934) 74

July 4 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1911, 1969) 75 Concordia 82 (1934) 73

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ012-KSZ024-KSZ038- KSZ054. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.