textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through the holiday weekend into Tuesday. Peak heat indices each afternoon are around 105 degrees, leading to the increased risk for heat-related illnesses.

- Low probability for scattered precipitation chances Sunday evening and again Tuesday evening through the late week as a cold front attempts to approach the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The potent sub-tropical ridge per water vapor imagery continues to dominate the southeast CONUS, pushing west and north into the central plains. Boundary layer mixing overnight continues to inhibit the strong radiational cooling as morning lows are generally mild in the low 70s. During the daytime, strong warm and moisture advection aid gusty south winds from 10 to 15 mph, increasing to over 20 mph sustained by Tuesday. Given the synoptic setup, confidence remains high that most of the CWA will see peak heat indices from 100 to 105 degrees this holiday weekend through as late as Wednesday. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in place with no changes made through Tuesday evening. Glimpses of heat relief are seen on the northern periphery of the ridge by Sunday afternoon as a back door cold front slides south into northern MO, impacting portions of far northeast and eastern Kansas in the form of cloud cover, somewhat cooler temps and/or a few showers/storms (less than 20%). Otherwise strong subsidence and capping in the mid levels should suppress organized convection in our area through at least Tuesday.

Latest ensemble guidance begins to diverge further regarding the track of a upper shortwave trough skirting the northern plains and Great Lakes by the middle of next week. In turn, this would shift a cold front southward towards north central Kansas, returning the chances for showers and storms and perhaps slightly cooler temps. Several ensemble members however hold the boundary further north, translated by overall NBM probabilities of QPF greater than 0.01 inches being around 20% or less. For the time being, will maintain the low chance pops through the middle of next week and a less certain temp forecast in the low 90s for highs. There persists a 10 degree spread from 25th-75th percentiles for high temps Wed.-Fri. and will depend on placement of the front and subsequent cloud cover.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Clear skies and light southerly winds below 10 kts will continue through the entire period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 5 Topeka 76, set in 1925 & 1983 73 Concordia 78, set in 1899 76

September 6 Topeka 78, set in 1970 74 Concordia 81, set in 1939 75

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.