textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- An unsettled pattern begins tonight and continues through Friday morning with several chances for showers and storms. The severe weather potential is low.

- Dry weather returns for the weekend with temperatures heating up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Mid-level ridging is being flattened across the Central Plains by a potent trough moving through the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Energy embedded in the quasi-zonal flow has helped maintain showers and storms into north central Kansas this morning. This activity looks to continue through the morning, potentially through the afternoon with weak, but sufficient, elevated instability to support an isolated storm as well. A surface boundary will slowly move north to south across the forecast area today before stalling somewhere over east-central or southeast Kansas this evening. Temperatures will vary across the forecast area with locations along the KS/NE state line topping out in the 80s while areas along and south of Interstate 70 will reach the low to mid 90s. A strengthening low- level jet and another ejecting perturbation will lead to additional showers and storms tonight into Wednesday morning. Highest chances for showers and storms will likely reside north of the forecast area into Nebraska along the nose of the LLJ. However, the passing wave could spark some elevated showers/storms farther south. Coverage and location of precipitation is uncertain; CAMs depict differing solutions with the 00z HRRR the most aggressive with coverage. Nonetheless, the environment is not progged to be overly conducive to severe weather given 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE and modest shear around 20kts.

Confidence has increased in showers and storms lingering through at least part of the day Wednesday with the surface boundary holding over east-central and southeast Kansas. Wednesday's highs remain tricky and will depend on how long precipitation and cloud cover lingers. With the recent trend to keep conditions a bit wetter and cloudier, highs have been lowered. Expect there to be a tight temperature gradient across the area from the low 70s in northern Kansas to around 90 degrees south of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures may be too warm along and south of I-35, especially if cloud cover holds and prevents solar insolation. Chances for severe weather have decreased Wednesday afternoon/evening since confidence in prolonged destabilization has gone down. Will still need to monitor trends as less clouds could support a marginally more favorable severe weather environment over portions of east-central Kansas. The LLJ increases again Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but the nose of the jet will be situated farther south, a more favorable location for showers and storms to impact the CWA. Shear and instability could support some strong to severe storms, although confidence is low at this time. Another potential hazard to monitor is locally heavy rainfall as the LLJ pumps moisture over the stationary surface boundary with storm motions parallel to the boundary. This could lead to training of storms, but again, confidence in this is low.

The boundary edges farther south on Thursday and skies are progged to clear through the day. Some precipitation may hold during the morning, but afternoon sunshine will bump temperatures into the 80s. Another round of storms is likely Thursday night into Friday morning as a shortwave dives east-southeast across the Plains. This wave finally shifts the surface boundary away from the local area and allows mid-level ridging to build back overhead this weekend into early next week. Consequently, highs will heat back up into at least the mid 90s with dry conditions likely. The NBM remains cooler than the 50th percentile of the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles which suggest highs could eclipse 100 degrees across north central Kansas. Dewpoints will not be as oppressive as the latest heat wave, but could still create heat index values near or slightly above 100 degrees.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Isolated showers are possible at times through the period, but impacts to terminals are unlikely even if showers move overhead. Southeast winds this morning become easterly this afternoon and eventually northeasterly late in the period as a front moves through terminals.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.