textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool weather should stick around into Saturday.

- Dry and mild weather is forecast for the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

19Z water vapor showed an upper trough over the Great lakes extending back to the south and west across the central plains. Another upper trough was over the northern Rockies with shortwave ridging over the northern plains. At the surface, high pressure over the northern plains was building south through the central plains with a cold front stretching from the Ozarks into southwest OK.

Sensible weather in the short term is expected to be mainly influence by low clouds more than anything else. The upper trough and associated energy within it should pass to the east of the forecast area this evening. But satellite has an expansive area of stratus where the cold air advection is more pronounced. The RAP and RRFS have been consistent in bringing the stratus south and west to cover the entire forecast area this evening. Forecast soundings also so some low level vertical motion within the saturated layer. Because of this have added a mention of drizzle to the forecast. But I would feel more confident in drizzle developing if the isentropic progs show a more organized area of lift to go along with the forecast soundings. As it is now, isentropic surfaces mainly show downglide within the cold air advection regime. So I don't anticipate anything that would measure, but there could be some intermittent drizzle overnight and into Friday morning. The other changes to the blend were also a result of the low clouds forecast to build in and hang around for some time was to tweak overnight lows a degree or two warmer and to adjust Friday highs lower. Clouds should limit radiational cooling overnight while also limiting insolation during the day. So there should be less of a diurnal change in temps for Friday. Models agree in an inversion setting up with the cooler high pressure at the surface limiting mixing. So think the clouds may hang around until Saturday afternoon when the surface ridge weakens and moves east allowing a southerly return flow to develop.

00z ensembles and cluster analysis show pretty good predictability in the forecast for this weekend and early next week. So the NBM/WPC forecast should be pretty good and fit pretty well with what the deterministic solutions. Overall the pattern becomes a little more zonal with no obvious synoptic scale forcing to impact the forecast area. So dry weather is expected as temperatures gradually trend warmer. Spread increases in the ensembles by mid week as models want to amplify the pattern. The increasing spread comes from different degrees and amplification and different locations of the upper troughs. This is seen in the operational GFS and ECMWF where the GFS has a much stronger cold front moving through Wednesday than the ECMWF has. The forecast sticks with the blend for now which calls for a more temperate weather and will watch later runs to see how the synoptic pattern may evolve.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1057 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

High pressure will continue to build into the area tonight with an expansive area of MVFR stratus accompanying it. Have extrapolated from satellite an arrival time for the restrictive CIGS. There is good confidence the CIGS remain in place through the end of the forecast period. There are some indications for light light drizzle developing after sunset. Confidence in coverage and duration is limited so have not included it in the forecast at this time.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.