textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and humidity returns Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Heat indicies will increase into the 100-105 degree range across east- central KS.

- Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the cold front by Wednesday afternoon and evening across east-central KS. Large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Pleasant Thursday and Friday before more storm chances build in by the weekend. Storms over Saturday and Sunday could again be strong to severe and return flooding concerns to the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Northwesterly upper-level flow remains in place over much of the central and northern Plains as an embedded shortwave trough continues to slide east into the Great Lakes region. Another jet streak noted over the PNW has continued to push mid-level energy over the Northern Rockies and will become the focal point for active weather Wednesday. Closer to the surface, cloud cover from this morning's showers/storms has transitioned to mostly clear skies with surface riding overhead. This has kept temperatures on the cooler side this afternoon with highs expected to top out in the mid 80s. Through the day today, the surface and low-level ridge axes will slide east of the area and return flow back from the south. At the same time, shortwave troughing ejecting off the northern Rockies early Wednesday morning will help to deepen a strong surface low over Nebraska and South Dakota. Surface troughing extending south into Kansas will tighten pressure gradients over the region and increase the low-level flow regime. As a 50 knot LLJ overspreads eastern Kansas Wednesday morning, moisture will stream north, pushing upper 60 and low 70 degree Tds across eastern Kansas. Strong mixing through the day Wednesday will help to mix down 25-30C 850mb temperatures. This will promote temperatures across central and eastern Kansas reaching the mid to upper 90s. This paired with the high dewpoints may briefly push heat indices towards 100-105 degrees by the late afternoon - mainly across far east-central KS. Given the high confidence in gusty conditions Wednesday morning and early afternoon, a Wind Advisory has been issued across much of eastern and east-central KS for winds gusting upwards of 45 mph.

In addition to the windy and warm weather, a cold front is expected to track across the area Wednesday morning and afternoon. CAMs continue to remain in good agreement in the timing and position of the front as it should reach the I-35 corridor around 2-3 PM. Convective initiation seems likely around the 4-5 PM timeframe as MLCIN begins to mix out a bit. With the main upper low well north of Kansas, it appears that ML lapse rates along the boundary by peak heating could be lacking a bit - only around 6-7 C/km. Even with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and 50 knots of bulk shear, initial updrafts may take a few tries to fully organize into mature supercells. Once a storm does strengthen and becomes established, large hail (up to 2 inches) and damaging winds (60-70 mph) will be the main hazards. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out in any isolated and surface based supercell. That said, chances are low given the low-level shear orientation and veered surface winds. Undercutting RFDs may inhibit tornadogenesis from occurring or at least, from being efficient. On top of all this, latest CAM guidance only keeps areas along and southeast of I-35 in the severe threat with areas north and west not likely seeing storm development. Storms will quickly move east/southeast of the area by 6-7 PM.

Weak CAA into the day Thursday will follow behind Wednesday's cold front. Some scattered sub-severe storm and rain chances may linger across portions of southeastern Kansas Thursday afternoon as low- level flow overrides the stalled 850mb boundary. Under mostly cloudy skies, expect high temperatures Thursday to top out in the low 80s. Surface ridging dominates the region into Friday as mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 80s become common. Pattern change comes Friday night into Saturday morning as quasi-zonal flow begins to advect several waves into the Plains for the weekend. Strong to severe storm chances will increase by the late afternoon/evening Saturday as high instability and increasing wind shear overspreads central and eastern Kansas. Additionally, the increase in moisture throughout the column Saturday will push PWATs around 2 inches, so heavy rain and flooding within storms will also become a concern. NBM probs of areas exceeding 2 inches of rainfall over the weekend currently sits around 40-60% with probs of exceeding 3 inches around 30-40%. Strong storms could again be possible Sunday, but overall confidence in the locations at this time remains low and will heavily depend on how convection Saturday night transpires. The active pattern appears to continue into next week with continued waves advecting over the central Plains within the zonal flow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Winds begin to increase from the south overnight into early morning as a low pressure system deepens to the northwest of the area. This should act to keep the lowest 2kft sufficiently mixed to minimize the impact from the LLJ also developing overhead and in place from around 07-15Z. Thus anticipate LLWS conditions to be marginal and mainly a speed shear delta noticeable around FL012-FL015. FROPA likely around 17-20Z from NW to SE across the terminals. Expect that storms right now form later in the afternoon near the end of the period but remain SE of the terminals along the front by late afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to noon CDT Wednesday for KSZ010-KSZ011- KSZ012-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.