textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occur early this morning.

-Hot and humid conditions return Wednesday.

-Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon in east- central KS along an advancing cold front.

-Dry to end the week before rain returns this weekend. Heavy rain could lead to additional flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Early this morning, a cluster of small showers has developed ahead of an H5 trough axis and weak surface boundary in southeast Nebraska. Forecast soundings ahead of the front show a minor amount (100-250 J/kg) of elevated instability and some mid-level moisture, enough to allow for scattered showers and possibly some isolated lightning strikes early today. Rain should clear to the south and east by late morning as high pressure pushes in from north. It should then be a pleasant afternoon with light winds and highs in the low 80s.

Conditions become more extreme on Wednesday. Low pressure will move over the northern High Plains and toward the western Great Lakes as the next H5 trough drops out of southern Canada and over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, strong southerly flow will push today's front back to the north as a warm front. Moisture advection will take dew points into the 70s across far eastern KS ahead of the next advancing cold front. Models agree fairly well on that front bisecting the CWA from northeast to southwest at 18Z. By 21Z, high resolution models show between 3000 and 4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and around 45 to 50 kts of deep layer shear developing ahead of the boundary. Convective initiation is likely to occur in an uncapped environment between 20Z and 22Z near I-35. Given the environmental parameters in place, storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind, with a slightly lower tornado risk given the fairly veered wind profile in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Storms are expected to move southeast of the CWA by the evening hours. Lingering showers could occur on Thursday in southeast KS where the boundary stalls.

Another consideration for Wednesday will be the hot and humid conditions combining to create heat index values above 100 degrees and the possible need for an advisory in east-central KS. Will let later shifts reevaluate that potential.

High pressure will make for another nice day to wrap up the workweek on Friday. The upper level pattern then becomes more quasi-zonal this weekend with long range models showing several shortwaves riding through the flow over the central US. There are still some differences on timing of precipitation this weekend, but chances will exist both Saturday and Sunday. The main concern this weekend currently appears to be heavy rain and the potential for more flooding.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Wind driven TAFs will be expected with winds increasing out of the south later this evening and overnight into Wednesday morning. Turbulent mixing overnight will become realized as a 50 knot low level jet overspreads the terminals by sunrise Wednesday. Gusts increase to around 35-40 knots for the late period. A frontal boundary will begins to slide in from the west near the end of the period helping to decrease wind speeds and shift winds out of the northwest by Wednesday afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.