textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and breezy today then not far from normal through the coming weekend.

- No precipitation expected through this forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Deep upper trough was over the Great Lakes and mid-Mississipi Valley early this morning with nearby radar-measured winds showing northwest winds several thousand feet deep from the surface. Cold- air advection has increased enough to increase mixing depths into stronger winds aloft overnight with a few gusts around 40 knots reported. These processes slowly diminish through the night with warmer air already building in around 850 mb and lowering mixing heights. This should bring slowly weaker gusts from near sunrise through the remainder of the day with winds notably weakening late this afternoon. Highs will still only reach the 20s to lower 30s in the cold shallow airmass with in the 2 to -8 range. Lighter winds tonight make for warmer feels-like conditions.

Warm-air advection late tonight into Tuesday brings a much warmer day Tuesday despite increasing high cloud. A weak front passes through Tuesday night though temps don't change much for Wednesday. A somewhat stronger front sinks south through the area Wednesday night though GEFS and NBM spreads become more notable for temperatures, leading to some uncertainty in how much colder Thursday will be. Northwest upper flow becomes more zonal by this weekend with a weak upper wave Thursday night into Friday likely staying south of the local area. Ensemble temperature spreads remain high but NBM's near to above normal temperatures would match the upper flow pattern fairly well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 502 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected. Northwest winds remain gusty much of the day but the rare gusts around 35 knots should end by 13Z with winds backing off around 23Z. A few batches of stratus around FL030 may pass by through 16Z but ceiling potential is quite low.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.