textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms are expected through the day today. A couple of storms this afternoon and evening could be strong to marginally severe.

- Additional showers/storms are possible (15-45% chance) on Saturday, with best chances across east-central Kansas.

- Sunday and Memorial Day are likely to be dry with highs in the 80s.

- Active pattern Tuesday through the middle of next week with daily chances for showers and storms

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A potent trough is lifting northeast across the Northern Plains early this morning with shortwave energy moving across Kansas. As these features continue to progress to the northeast, an increase in coverage of showers/storms is expected this morning before some dry time builds in this afternoon. A surface front will slide from west to east across the area this afternoon and showers and thunderstorms are likely (50-70%) to develop along this feature. SBCAPE increases to 1000-1500 J/kg along with marginal effective shear of 20-25 kts, which could lead to a few strong to marginally severe storms capable of producing gusty winds and hail up to quarter size. Another perturbation lifts northeast out of Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening,bringing chances for showers and storms to mainly east-central Kansas. The environment could again be marginally favorable for strong to severe storms across east-central Kansas if the front is slower to push southeast. The longwave trough ejects across the Plains Saturday evening and overnight, leading to low chances (15- 30%) for showers and storms.

Sunday and Monday still look mainly dry as shortwave ridging moves overhead. 10-20% of ensembles generate measurable precipitation on Sunday and Monday, but a lack of obvious large-scale forcing keeps confidence in any precipitation low. Temperatures warm back into the 80s Sunday through the remainder of next week. The pattern becomes more active Tuesday through the middle of the week with a closed low meandering around the Plains and another closed low across the western CONUS. This leads to daily chances for showers and storms, largely during the daytime due to diurnal heating. Predictability of each round is low this far out, but there will likely be periods of dry time mixed in.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 446 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Have seen a mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR conditions overnight, but think MVFR-IFR cigs will be the rule through the morning. Expect showers and storms to increase in coverage this morning with a break in precipitation this afternoon. Conditions should become VFR for a few hours before additional showers and storms develop late this afternoon and into the evening. Coverage of storms remains too uncertain to input more than a PROB30 group.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.