textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record warmth possible through Monday.

- Severe storm chances still hold across the area today and Sunday but will be highest during the late afternoon and evening hours generally along the highway 36 corridor into north central Kansas areas. Some may not see storms at all but the risk is still present if storms do form some could become severe. Expect mainly a hail and wind threat with a low end threat for tornadoes mainly Sunday.

- Monday still needs to get the most attention for this period. Still questions to how the day unfolds but expect the highest potential for very large hail, strong damaging winds, possibly intense tornadoes and a flooding risk to set up by late afternoon through the evening and part of the overnight time frame.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 418 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Water Vapor imagery shows a closed low and upper trough lifting into the Canadian maritime region with mainly quasi-zonal to slight southwest flow across the CONUS with the mean Westerlies along the northern tier and along the Canadian border. The subtropical jet remain across northern Mexico into the southern Plains and Gulf regions. The feature of primary concern is digging into the Pacific northwest at the current time. This is the trough that will set up across the western CONUS today and Sunday which will act to increase the severe threat across the region progressively peaking into Monday.

Early this morning the LLJ is veering and weakening and has shifted mainly over southeastern portions of east-central KS. A few showers and storms persist off and on just southeast of the area with weak isentropic ascent.

Today, the slight southwest flow component to the mid to upper levels will allow for the EML to remain in place. All primary operational models of the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, Canadian all suggest that even through Monday, capping across the area remains aloft at some depth. Generally, that depth becomes more shallow each subsequent period with increased WAA and increasing this afternoon through Sunday with strong southerly flow through Monday. With H85 temperatures reaching 15C up to 30C across portions of the area, good agreement appears to be in place that high temperatures are on track to hover around or exceed previous records through Monday. NBM spreads remain low through this period and widen significantly Monday night as the front finally pushes through the area. Expect hot and humid air to lift poleward with each day now feeling noticeably more muggy and hot as a general trend. Winds will be strong out of the south especially Sunday and Monday but think overall low enough to that a wind advisory will not be needed at this time with wind probs low enough to not exceed standard advisory levels.

The severe threats for today and Sunday still focused highest north and northwest of the area. However, intense heating to around or exceeding convective temps may set up across north central in portions of northeast Kansas areas. If storms form or otherwise move into the area from the west off the dryline further positions over western and southwestern Kansas areas, then expect that hail and wind would be the primary hazards with some of these storms. It is possible most don't see storms today and possibly Sunday with the EML still holding strong through across much of the area. Many of the CAMs suggest that the primary outcome for storms this evening into overnight are due to a possible MCS moving across portions of north-central into northeastern KS late this evening into Sunday morning. Sunday then appears to be mainly capped with the idea of convection firing along the dryline over western and southwestern KS then storms moving into portions of north-central Kansas before weakening due to the potential cap holding strong over with eastward extent into the northeastern and east-central Kansas areas.

Monday has a few early differences from past cycles. Overall, the trough appears as though it may slow and become quasi-stationary with a lead wave being the primary forcing mechanism to help storms fire along the triple point and off the dryline into Monday afternoon. Still plenty of time for many differences to take shape as the trough has yet to be sampled by the UA network over the western CONUS. However, NAEFS mean specific humidity anomalies suggest that strong WAA increases into this period, helping to support a deep moist Gulf airmass to build into the region ahead of the baroclinic zone regardless of where it actually becomes established. With the strong wind and deep moist unstable airmass, most models have EHI index values above 2-3 with some up to around 8! This is only one way of suggesting that conditions could be in place for potentially strong tornadoes to form with any discrete supercell that forms especially along the dryline. Still looking at shear vectors mainly orthogonal off the dryline and forecast triple point area over west central into central Kansas which seems to be a consistent area of interest over the past several model cycles. Then further north and east of this general area, the overall shear vectors may become more parallel to the quasi-stationary boundary which will transition to the cold front through the event. Expect a more messy storm mode and potential for early discrete storms to grow upscale as they move east/southeast into the area. The moist rich environment then not only supports early instances of very large hail and potential strong tornadoes and damaging wind but then may fairly quickly into the overnight become a flash flooding risk. Plenty of uncertainty still remains but the idea of Monday still holding the highest severe threat appears to be warranted at this time.

The front pushes through the area by midday Tuesday which has been a consistent trend as well, so expect Monday to end the severe threat for this forecast period with temperatures cooling to the 40s and 50s for overnight lows and highs in the 60s and 70s for mid week before steadily rising into next weekend again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Models show a weak boundary over north central KS and southeast NEB remaining near the state line this evening. So the higher potential for TS looks to be north of the terminals. Some of the recent CAMs are wanting to develop TS just north of the terminals this afternoon, but then take them north pretty quickly. So there is some potential for storms, but think it is to low to include in the forecast at this time. Some MVFR stratus may try to advect into the region from the south around sunrise Sunday. Confidence is marginal as the RAP keeps the better saturation right around 3KFT and the NAM's bias to be to cool in the boundary layer. Turbulent mixing is expected to mitigate low level wind shear concerns overnight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Record High Temperature for May 16

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1931) 91 Concordia 93 (2019) 93

Record High Temperature for May 17

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 92 (1907) 90 Concordia 96 (1996) 98

Record Highest Low Temperature for May 17

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 73 (1996) 67 Concordia 68 (1902, 1906) 66

Record High Temperature for May 18

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 94 (1975) 91 Concordia 94 (1967, 1988) 94

Record Highest Low Temperature for May 18

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 71 (1911) 70 Concordia 72 (1911) 67

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.