textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwest winds today behind a cold front, with afternoon gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

- Much colder Thursday through Saturday, with a hard freeze likely Friday morning as lows fall into the mid to upper 20s.

- Low rain chances Sunday into Sunday night, mainly across central Kansas, with most of the rain staying south of the area, though confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A deep upper low near Hudson Bay has an elongated trough axis extending southwest into the northern and central Plains, with Kansas under west to northwest flow aloft and strong high pressure building over central Canada. At the surface, the cold front sat along the Nebraska border late Tuesday evening and moves through before sunrise. Tuesday reached the low 70s again, the second straight day above the NBM, but dewpoints held in the mid to upper 40s with light winds along the washed out front near Interstate 70 instead of mixing out like Monday.

Northwest winds increase behind the front this morning as mixing deepens to several thousand feet, tapping 30 to 40 kt winds near the top of the mixed layer. The NBM came in low on gusts given that much wind available to mix down, so gusts were adjusted upward, with 25 to 35 mph likely this afternoon, strongest where mixing runs deepest across north central Kansas, with highs in the mid 60s before the colder air arrives. Winds ease this evening as the boundary layer decouples and the pressure gradient begins to relax.

As the western ridge amplifies, another lobe of energy rotates around the back side of the Hudson Bay upper low Thursday and reinforces the cold advection, dropping H85 temperatures toward 0 C by evening with highs struggling to reach 50. The Canadian high then settles overhead Thursday night, and with clear skies and calm winds, Friday morning sets up as an ideal radiational cooling night. Lows in the mid to upper 20s bring a hard freeze area-wide, with valley areas running a few degrees colder, and the NBM has trended colder each of the last two nights. Saturday morning stays cold, though light southeast winds returning to north central Kansas keep lows a few degrees warmer there. Frost and freeze products ended for the season November 1, but these two cold mornings likely end a growing season that has run longer this fall.

A weak Omega type block sets up over central Canada, which forces a southern stream low into the southern Plains Sunday, keeping most of its precipitation south of the area. Only the north edge clips the area Sunday into Sunday night, mainly across central Kansas. The GFS keeps the rain shield south with only a shallow moist layer aloft, while the ECMWF brings deeper moisture into central Kansas, but both hold dry air below 5000 ft fed by the high to the northeast, so early rain may evaporate before reaching the ground especially north of Interstate 70. Ensemble guidance keeps the median amounts light, with a quarter of the clusters dry altogether, so the signal stays weak despite a few wetter members. With that much spread between the deterministic models and ensemble members, confidence in rain amounts and coverage remains low at this range. Drier weather follows early next week with a slow warming trend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR with mainly clear skies through the period. A dry frontal passage has occurred at MHK and recently at TOP and FOE. Winds continue veering to the WNW over the next few hours. Gusts increase through this morning as mixing deepens and last through the afternoon before diminishing after sunset. Stronger northwest winds just off the surface could produce brief low level wind shear behind the front for a couple hours, but it would be mainly speed shear and marginal as surface winds increase, so it is left out of the TAFs.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.