textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry weather persists through Monday.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday through Thursday of next week as cold front stalls somewhere nearby. Uncertainty still high for this period.

- Cooler temperatures behind front for latter part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Water vapor imagery indicates a deepening upper low digging into the Pacific Northwest, with strong upper ridging dominating much of the rest of the CONUS. Elsewhere, Hurricane Isaias is nearing landfall on the Florida Panhandle. All the latent heat release with Isaias is helping to strengthen the ridging over the Midwest and Great Lakes, amplifying and slowing the overall pattern. So we will continue to see hot and dry weather through the weekend as the upper low deepens and mostly becomes cut off over the southwestern CONUS. Highs approach 90 each afternoon with overnight lows mainly in the 60s. Monday still looks to be the warmest day as WAA and moisture advection strengthen in advance of the upper low as it begins to shift east. Highs in the low 90s and lows near 70 will both be near record values. (See Climate section.)

Tuesday into Thursday, uncertainty significantly increases. High pressure over the Northern Plains will push a cold front southward towards the area Monday night and Tuesday. There is significant spread in guidance in how far south this front will get before it stalls. Behind the front, temperatures should stay in the upper 60s and 70s, while ahead of the front will be another very warm day near or above 90. A few stronger storms could also occur along and ahead of the front as it presses southeast. By Wednesday and Thursday, the front will lift back north as a warm front as the Southwest upper low moves northeast across the Plains. High uncertainty is also present as to how this system will evolve. Some recent guidance keeps the upper low a lot weaker and slower as a northern stream shortwave over western Canada fails to dig southeast and interact with the original upper low. Other guidance still has a stronger and more negatively tilted trough that would be more favorable for some sort of regional severe threat. At any rate, we should see rain and storm chances increase whenever the system does shift east across the area. Just tough to pinpoint any specific area or time given the current uncertainty. Behind the system, still expecting cooler temperatures to arrive for the end of next week as high pressure moves across the Midwest. The degree of that cooler air is still in question though, given the aforementioned uncertainty in the overall pattern evolution.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail under clear skies. Decided to add mention of LLWS for the overnight hours into early morning. Although it is marginal and driven by speed shear and not so much directional shear, felt there was enough in the short-term guidance and forecast soundings to suggest sfc winds would become light enough under the strengthening inversion. By mid to late morning, sfc winds then become breezy with 20-25 kt gusts for most of the afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Record high information for October 9:

Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 92, set in 1954 89 Concordia 91, set in 1921 and 2020 90

Record warm low information for October 12:

Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 68, set in 1899 70 Concordia 67, set in 1975 67

Record high information for October 12:

Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 93, set in 2024 92 Concordia 93, set in 1899 91

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.