textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry through Monday with very warm temperatures Monday and Tuesday, then cool and dry in the middle to late portions of next week. - Minor fire weather concerns Sunday and Monday.

- Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain potential will need to be monitored Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Nearly-zonal flow aloft will be the rule over the next few days while a weak surface high sinks east-southeast out of the central High Plains. This brings modifying temperatures from today's cool values with little opportunity for moisture return, resulting in minor fire weather concern (see below for more information). ESAT data from most recent NAEFS and ENS push 850 mb temperatres into the 97.5 to 99.5 climatological percentile for Monday into Tuesday, bringing some potential for record highs.

Notable changes come late Tuesday into Wednesday as a filling upper low makes its way east-northeast into the southern Plains while a deepening trough pushes east-southeast out the northern Rockies. Latest GFS and ECMWF are fairly similar in the interaction of these waves, though LREF spreads showing less agreement, especially by Wednesday morning. GEFS and GEPS have reasonable chances for both CAPE to increase to at least 1000 J/kg and deep-layer shear of at least 30 knots so ingredients may be in place for some strong to severe storms, but NAM and GFS also show some morning stratus potential as well. Much remains to be determined, but Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night could bring some notable convection. ESAT data also showing climatoligically-high moisture values for some heavy rain potential too.

After highs in the 70s to around 80 Monday and Tuesday, cooler and dry conditions are favored for Wednesday through Saturday in a more northwest upper flow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 451 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

With dewpoints mixing out into the middle and upper 20s this afternoon, prospects for reaching the cross over temp and ground fog formation seem to be very low. Additionally none of the guidance is showing any visibility restrictions. So VFR conditions are forecast to persist. There is a mixed signal for wind shear towards 12Z with the low level jet near 40KT. But a gradually strengthening pressure gradient suggests some wind in the boundary layer. Will hold off on including in the forecast at this time and take a look at the 00Z guidance for the potential for wind shear.

CLIMATE

Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Record high temperature information:

March 9 Current Record Forecast High ------------------------------------------ Topeka 80, set in 1986 77 Concordia 81, set in 1986 77

March 10 Current Record Forecast High ------------------------------------------ Topeka 84, set in 1967 80 Concordia 84, set in 2025 72

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.