textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Below-average temperatures expected through the work week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
- Dry conditions are expected until late Wednesday into Thursday with more precipitation chances by the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
A cloudy but much cooler start to the week is underway across eastern Kansas with below-average temperatures expected for the remainder of the work week. Today and Tuesday's conditions will largely be influenced by the large upper low that is progged to moved across Nebraska and Iowa. Ensemble guidance keeps a strong surface high across the northern Plains and Midwest with continuous CAA for today and Tuesday. Ample cloud cover and CAA will keep temperatures pleasant and well below-average, topping out in the upper 60s.
A subtle pattern change comes Wednesday as the low-level ridge axis passes east of Kansas and returns low-level flow back towards the south. Drier and clearer conditions are expected by the afternoon and should promote temperatures returning to the mid to upper 70s. By Wednesday evening into Thursday, rain chances begin to increase as vorticity advection on the western side of the upper ridge moves north into Kansas. Best forcing looks to remain across western and central Kansas so expectations are for the highest chances for rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday to remain there. Thursday into Friday will see the upper ridge compress and get shunted back towards the Gulf as troughing approaches from the west. This should usher in better PVA across all of eastern Kansas and in turn, rain and storm chances. Multiple waves pass over the central Plains into the weekend keeps scattered chances of rain/storms across the forecast area with temperatures creeping back towards averages for this time of year.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGs will persist at KTOP and KFOE for much of the morning today before lifting to VFR status Monday afternoon. Added mention of MVFR CIGs returning later Tuesday morning with the possibility of IFR CIGs near the end of the period. Some drizzle and reduced VIS may accompany lower ceilings Tuesday morning, mainly at KTOP and KFOE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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