textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry with near record highs forecast through Saturday.

- The warm and dry weather will create elevated fire danger through the weekend.

- A cold front is expected to cool temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

07Z water vapor showed an upper level ridge centered over the southwest U.S. with ridging through the northern Rockies. This placed the forecast area underneath northwest flow. Surface obs showed high pressure along the gulf coast with the better boundary layer moisture confined to the coastal region.

There isn't a lot of changes to the forecast this morning. Models are in pretty good agreement and ensembles including the NBM show small spreads in temps through Wednesday. The one exception is for Sunday when the cold front pushes through the area. For what ever reason the NBM suggests there is some room on the warm side for temps on Sunday with the seventy fifth percentile at 83 for Topeka. However the straight ensembles, Hybrid GEFS and AIGEFS show much less room on the warm side with mean high temps on Sunday in the middle 60s to around 70. This seems to fit in with the 00Z operational solutions which agree on the front pushing through the area around midday with good cold air advection through the afternoon. So trended highs a little cooler for Sunday expecting cold air advection to limit the window for warming. Otherwise the blend looks pretty good for temps through Wednesday of next week.

Northwest flow is forecast to persist through Saturday with weak boundaries occasionally moving through the area. With limited moisture in place, precip chances are pretty close to nil and the boundary passages have the effect of keeping deeper moisture to the south and east of the area for the stronger cold front on Sunday. Then the upper ridge redeveloped over the southwest early next week causing northwest flow over the plains to recommence. So the forecast is for dry weather through the period. Saturday looks to be the hottest day of the week as good warm air advection should push highs to around 90. Monday should be the coolest day of the next seven as Canadian high pressure passes through the plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Dry air and no moisture advection to speak of is expected to keep VFR conditions in place with winds generally 10KT or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Updated at 230 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain elevated through the weekend. Forecast soundings are indicating a well mixed boundary layer each of the next three days with dewpoints mixing out during the afternoon. With very warm temperatures forecast, RH values look to be as low as 15 to 25 percent each of the afternoons. Meanwhile fuels for the most part remain dormant with any green up in the very early stages especially for north central KS. Fortunately winds are forecast to remain in the 10 to 15 mph range each afternoon. Saturday may end up being the bigger fire weather day as the pressure gradient begins to strengthen with the approach of a cold front. This could cause winds to become stronger than what is currently forecast. The plan is to continue to message a marginal very high fire danger due to the lighter winds speeds. But We amy end up needing a red flag warning for Saturday if winds trend even a little stronger.

A cold front will push through the area Sunday morning shifting winds to the north. The strongest winds of the weekend are forecast sunday behind the front. But falling temps could keep RH values above 35 percent. Still the wind shift would create problems for any fire that may start on Saturday.

CLIMATE

Updated at 230 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Record High Temperature for March 20

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1953) 86 Concordia 83 (1916, 1934, 2011) 86

Record High Temperature for March 21

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 91 (1907, 1916) 90 Concordia 97 (1907) 91

Record Highest Minimum Temperature for March 20

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 56 (2012) 47 Concordia 50 (1894, 1935, 2011) 49

Record Highest Minimum Temperature for March 22

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 65 (1907) 60 Concordia 56 (1935, 1936) 54

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.