textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening with damaging winds and large hail.

- A conditional risk for severe storms remains for late Sunday afternoon and evening. If storms develop, large hail and damaging winds are possible.

- Low precipitation chances linger for much of next week with seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Scattered convection continues at midday in east-central Kansas in broadly-diffluent though modest southwest mid/upper level flow in persistent isentropic lift under easterly surface flow. This lift should slowly dissipate into early Sunday as southerly winds return near the surface and upper heights rise. The main area of attention over the later afternoon today remains to be to the southwest where a dryline is sharpening. Forcing here remains largely limited to convergence along the dryline with the main upper wave displaced to the northwest. ML CAPE was already around 3000 J/kg at 18Z ahead of the dryline and will continue to increase northeast with time and space into the evening. Deep-layer shear continues to look less than ideal for supercells, so most CAMS congealing storms into at least a broken line as they move northeast seems on track. Wind gusts may the be primary threat this far northeast with DCAPE values potentially around 1200 J/kg into the early evening, though some large hail could still occur. Most of the severe threat should be to the east by midnight, but some continued WAA convection may linger overnight. A somewhat to very unstable airmass with somewhat stronger shear will likely remain in place Sunday and Monday though forcing for ascent is hard to find. Generally-weak low-level flow Sunday could leave outflow boundaries around for some focus with the main time of storm concern from late afternoon to late evening.

Weak upper riding looks to take hold from the central Plains northeast into central Canada for the middle portions of next week, keeping precipitation chances somewhat reduced and slightly favoring central Kansas over eastern Kansas. Highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s should dominate this forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Convective-based forecast as a line of thunderstorms moving out of central Nebraska is expected to impact the terminals later this evening. Upgraded KMHK from a PROB30 to prevailing line of TS as confidence was better for the line of thunderstorms to hold together that far. As the line moves east, storms may weaken a bit and confidence in timing and coverage is not high so kept with the PROB30 for KTOP and KFOE. MVFR CIGs move in by early Sunday morning with clearing to VFR by the late TAF.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.