textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
-Strong and severe thunderstorms along with heavy rains late this afternoon and evening. The severe risk should exit east of the area around or shortly after midnight.
-Cooler temperatures and overall drier weather should prevail after Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 102 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
The intense upper trough is digging and ejecting into the OK/TX Panhandle. The trough will become more negatively tilted this evening with intense dynamic lift expected to overspread the area after 21z. The surface low should drop toward the KS/OK this evening with severe storms likely to develop across southern Kansas then forming into a line and racing northeast toward at least some part of the CWA. Damaging winds with perhaps a squall line mesovortex risk may develop across the southeast half of the CWA mainly from 4pm through 11pm. Heavy rains will also occur given record PWATs of over 1.5" again today. Expect areas of 1-2" with some swaths of 3-4" tonight into early Tuesday. The severe risk should end by midnight exiting to the east. Additional showers and isolated storms will persist in the vicinity of the upper low through Tues morning with another half inch of rain likely on the backside of the upper system before ending by late in the day.
Another weaker system will shear across the region Weds into Thu however any precip should be light and limited to the southern half of the area. The weather looks dry after that through the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1048 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
Showers linger across the terminals to start the period as the earlier storms continue to weaken and shift east. Otherwise only minor changes to the previous forecast thinking. MVFR ceilings with mist persist overnight as the boundary layer stays saturated. The wind shift to the northwest begins within the frontal zone around or soon after sunrise and works through the terminals by mid-morning. IFR is likely within the frontal zone and just behind it with perhaps a period of -SHRA for a few hours before drier air works in with gusty northwest winds improving ceilings by late afternoon.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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