textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected Saturday and into next week with temperatures building back into the mid 90s by the late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Mostly clear skies have remained common across much of northeastern Kansas this morning as the main low level boundaries keep storms south of the area. An upper shortwave axis continues to slowly move across eastern Kansas and as of 1 AM Saturday morning is near the I- 35 corridor. Subsidence on the back side of this has helped to keep skies mostly clear and continues to aid in efficient radiative cooling over the region. Efficient cooling may usher in some patchy fog across far eastern Kansas around sunrise today, but not expecting widespread concerns at this time.

For the remainder of the day today, surface high pressure will dominate the weather pattern leading to mostly sunny skies and light easterly winds. Highs topping out in the upper 80s will be common by 4-6 PM this afternoon. This pattern does not appear to change much over the next several days as a large and stout dome of upper high pressure builds across much of the central US. Strong surface ridging will accompany the upper high and help to keep the main surface boundary well south of the area. This will keep northeast KS on the 'cool and dry' side of the ridge with easterly winds keeping humidity down a touch for the beginning of the week with highs topping out in the low 90s. The pattern begins to break down a bit as a lingering weak low pressure gets caught into the upper ridge's flow and retrogrades back west towards the central Plains. This should help to return low-level flow back towards the south. Slightly higher Tds will move north from the southern Plains by Wednesday and Thursday and help to push temperatures closer to the mid 90s. The southerly flow looks to persist into the weekend with very warm 850mb temperatures overspreading the area. Diurnal mixing bringing down this warm air may lead to temperatures nearing triple digits by the weekend. That said, NBM 25th to 75th temperature spreads by the weekend are still rather large, so confidence is not overly high in triple digit afternoon temperatures yet. In addition to the heat this upcoming week, rain/storm chances remain below 15% for the entire forecast. Any appreciable chance for rain may only come by the late week and weekend, but at this time, chances remain better well south of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Some patchy fog has been persist in the river basin at KTOP where visibilities have briefly dropped into LIFR and IFR status. Not expecting too much fog concerns for KFOE or KMHK at this time. Fog should burn off within the first hour or so in the TAF before VFR conditions persist through the period. Will need to watch for another fog set up near the end of the period as easterly winds and high pressure will create another set up for patchy fog.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.