textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong to severe storms possible today and tonight, most likely this evening as storms spread northeast from central Kansas. Damaging winds the main hazard, along with some large hail.

- Conditional risk for severe storms again Sunday evening. If storms develop, large hail and damaging winds possible.

- Low precipitation chances linger for much of next week. Temperatures stay a bit above average.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

We continue to see a sort of Omega Block pattern in place across the CONUS this morning. Strong upper ridging remains centered over the northern Plains and south-central Canada, with two upper lows over the Northeast and Four Corners Region. The latter upper low will be the focus for impacts here over the next few days as it slowly lifts northeast onto the Plains. An initial round of showers and storms has spread northeast across the area over the past few hours, tied to the leading edge of 850-700 mb WAA. WAA/isentropic ascent remains in place throughout the morning, which will likely keep scattered showers and weak storms around at times. By the afternoon, increasing instability and ascent from the main upper low may allow for a few stronger storms to develop. Initially this could be farther east across the area, tied to any remnant outflow or differential heating boundaries. But the better chances for any strong storms looks to be towards the evening hours (6 PM-midnight) with storms developing across south-central KS and moving northeast into the CWA. Shear remains weak (~20 kts) but stronger than today, likely just enough for a few more organized thunderstorms. Damaging winds (60-70 mph) would be the main hazard with any line of storms moving in from the southwest, with some hail also possible in any stronger updraft.

A more conditional strong to severe storm setup remains in place for Sunday. As the upper low continues lifting northeast across the Plains, weakening as it does so, mid-level heights will rise across the region. Synoptic scale subsidence thus limits confidence that any storms will actually develop. However if any remnant boundaries can serve as a focus for mesoscale lift, the environment remains favorable. Shear increases to around 40 kts, with ML CAPE of 3500- 4000 J/kg. So any storm that manages to develop could produce large hail (~1.75") and damaging winds 60-65 mph, along with a low tornado threat. Again though, this is dependent on storms actually forming.

Upper ridging will continue to expand across the southern and central Plains for Monday, staying mostly in place through the rest of the week. This will keep temperatures on the warmer side of average, though high pressure over the Great Lakes still looks to push a weak backdoor cold front into the area by Tuesday. Despite the upper ridge nearby, some low shower and storm chances may linger throughout the week along the aforementioned boundary as it stalls just to our southwest.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Expecting the area of thunderstorms west of KMHK to steadily progress northeast over the next few hours. May stay a bit northwest of KTOP and KFOE, but have nevertheless added a TEMPO group for any pop-up storms that develop along the leading outflow. Forecast soundings suggest that ceilings will stay primarily VFR, though some scattered MVFR ceilings may briefly occur. Additional rounds of showers and storms will remain possible through the TAF period, with the best chance during the mid and late evening hours tomorrow. Winds stay southeasterly away from any storms, increasing to 10-15 kts tomorrow afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.