textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain this afternoon changes to light snow from west to east across the forecast area this evening, ending overnight.

- Most places should see minimal impacts with a half inch or less of accumulation, but there is an increasing signal for a narrow band of 1-2 inches to set up towards central KS.

- Temperatures look seasonal this weekend followed by a brief warm- up early next week, all while remaining dry.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Upper trough is moving out of NM and into the TX/OK panhandle region with the trough axis extending north through the High Plains and Northern Plains. The associated sfc low isn't particularly well- defined, but can be seen in northern TX. This places KS in a zone of frontogenetical forcing between 850-700mb, as shown on the SPC mesoanalysis page as well as model guidance into this evening. The latest short-term models have shown a slight uptick in the probability for at least 1 inch of snow, with the most favorable location being in the Flint Hills area where these probabilities are 40-70%. Comparing the various HREF members, they all have a signal for a narrow band up to 1 inch, potentially even 2 inches in that general area. This makes sense given the strong frontogenesis. That being said, there are still challenges with pinpointing the exact location of such a snow band and how big of an area would be impacted. The fast-moving nature of this system and warm surface temperatures at onset should help to limit snow totals, as precipitation looks to start out as rain or a rain/snow mix before changing to all snow. The timing of that transition will be crucial for snow amounts.

Looking at forecast soundings in the Flint Hills, the lower levels begin to saturate late this afternoon when the profile remains warm enough to support rain. As temperatures cool into the early evening, lift increases (particularly through the DGZ) and steep lapse rates could support a brief period of heavier snowfall rates. The HREF isn't picking up on intense snowfall rates on the order of 1"/hr. Even though it doesn't look likely we'll see snow quite that heavy, the overall setup still looks favorable for some reduced visibility and locally higher accumulations where the snowband sets up. The potential fly in the ointment related to those higher amounts is the timing of arrival of colder air, especially further east. Some of the more recent HRRR runs have pulled the 1-2" band closer to the KS Turnpike, but this area would take longer for temperatures to cool down. It may be that the bulk of the precip is done by the time it gets cold enough to support snow further east, so am not overly confident in higher snow totals there.

Considering the short time duration of snowfall and limited area where heavier snowfall rates could occur, confidence in widespread impacts is lower than usual for this time range. Given the uncertainties noted above, opted to hold off on issuing any advisories for now. Bottom line is there will probably be someone that sees 1 inch, possibly 2, and probably in the Flint Hills area, and there could be travel issues where that occurs. This looks to be too small in area and time to justify an advisory at this time, but this situation will certainly bear monitoring this evening and will adjust as needed.

Light snowfall may linger in eastern KS late tonight, but should come to an end during the overnight hours as forcing weakens. The upper trough axis swings east with northwest flow aloft keeping seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Increasing mid-level heights bring a warm-up for Monday and Tuesday with highs back in the 50s. Another wave of energy brings a cold front Wednesday with a return to more seasonal temperatures mid to late next week, though precipitation chances look low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1027 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

One final band of -SN continues to work east and is on track to exit the KMHK terminal around 06Z. Expect steady improvements from west to east through sunrise then the westerly winds begin to increase by mid-morning from west to east. Brief IFR conditions are still possible for the KTOP/KFOE terminals but most -RASN bands across eastern areas continue to remain in the marginal VFR categories. Expect remaining -SN bands from the west to shift through the KTOP/KFOE terminals by 07Z or shortly after. After the final snow band passes through, expect steady improvements over eastern terminals as well.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037.