textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered shower/storm chances later this afternoon (20-40%)

- Temperatures build into the weekend with highs Saturday through Monday pushing into the upper 90s and a few seeing the low 100s.

- Weak frontal boundary moves across the area sometime Tuesday ushering in reprieve from the heat and a more active weather pattern for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The upper air pattern over the past 24 hours has seen little change across the CONUS with a large dome of high pressure settled over South Dakota and Nebraska, a stalled low over the Texas Plains and troughing over the PNW with the main jet stream rounding the central ridge and extending into the northeastern US. The main changes across the central US has been the subtle northern shift in the Texas cyclone's trough axis. This has helped to provide a bit more lift across the Ozarks and into southern Kansas that could lead to our first chances for rain in over a week by this afternoon. In the short-term, surface ridging still remains present across eastern Kansas with another night of clear skies and light winds. Once again will expect to see some patchy fog development in the low-lying areas in eastern and far northern Kansas by sunrise this morning. That said, not expecting any widespread hazardous conditions with any fog expected to burn off shortly after sunrise. For the remainder of the day today, presence of the aforementioned mid-level lift will spread across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Diurnal heating and upper 60 and low 70 degree Tds will give way to decent CAPE values by this afternoon and create an environment conducive for weak pulse summer thunderstorms. Storms are expected to be weak with a few rumbles of thunder given the lack of deep shear. High temperatures will again top out around 90 degrees this afternoon.

Starting Friday, southerly low-level flow will increase across the region and usher in very warm 850mb temperatures from the southwest each afternoon. This paired with the upper ridge spreading back over the central Plains will cause a warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. Friday's high temperatures will only top out in the low 90s before peaking in the upper 90s and some low 100s by Sunday and Monday. Given the high air temperatures and dewpoints sitting around 70 degrees across far eastern Kansas Sunday/Monday, could see heat indicies approach 105-110 degrees both afternoons.

Some reprieve in the heat looks to come sometime Tuesday as the upper ridge begins to get shunted west and several weak waves dip into the northern Plains. This should help to push a weak boundary across the area sometime Tuesday. With most guidance keeping a frontal passage midday, areas to the south of the boundary will still likely see mid to upper 90 degree temperatures into the afternoon. As for precipitation, confidence at this time is not very high that much will come across eastern Kansas. Better low and mid level moisture and lift will stay off to the north and east of the area. Could still see some chances for storms along the boundary passage Tuesday afternoon/evening though with PoPs around 15% at this time. A modified airmass is expected to move in behind the frontal passage Tuesday and stick around for much of next week. Temperatures will fall back closer to average - highs around 90 degrees and lows in the low 70s. In addition to the slightly cooler weather, a more active pattern looks to summarize the remainder of next week as the main upper ridging pattern pushes south of the area and several weak waves ride in within the northwesterly upper level flow.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Could again see shallow ground fog at KTOP just before sunrise this morning, but does not look to be widespread. Winds should become southerly by the afternoon today although weak. There is a growing chances that KTOP and KFOE see some showers/weak storms by the later afternoon hours, but confidence in coverage is low, so kept out mention at this time.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.