textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms expected across the area today and tonight. The potential for severe weather is low.

- Chances for showers and storms continue through the weekend and into early next week, although it will not be a washout with dry time mixed in with rounds of rain.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly-above normal into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

An elongated mid-level ridge stretches from the southeast CONUS into the Northern Plains with a potent closed low spinning over California. A mid-level perturbation is slowly lifting north across the Central and Southern Plains this morning and will continue to do so through the day today, leading to increasing chances for showers and storms from south to north. Forecast soundings show skinny CAPE, a deep warm cloud layer, and PWATs of 1.75 (above the 90th percentile of climatology) that will lead to moderate to at times heavy rainfall, potentially up to 1 inch per hour based on HREF members. While the probability is low, it is not out of the question for some areas to receive locally heavy rainfall, mainly south of Interstate 70 where instability is highest. Shear is sub-optimal for severe storms, so severe storms are not expected. Coverage of showers and storms may lessen this evening before increasing again overnight as another wave of energy lifts north. This activity will continue into Friday morning before becoming more isolated to scattered by Friday afternoon.

The aforementioned California closed low takes on a negative tilt as it lifts northeast across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains Friday evening into Sunday. While the best dynamics will remain northwest of the forecast area, sufficient ascent near the base of the trough will lead to additional waves of showers and storms, mainly Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night into Sunday. Instability is progged to be higher during this timeframe with marginally better shear which could lead to some strong to severe storms, but overall confidence in severe weather is low. Predictability decreases into next week as the ridge tries to reorganize over the Southern and Central Plains. Waves of energy riding through the flow lead to at least low chances for showers/storms each day, but details are uncertain this far out. Temperatures remain slightly above normal into next week with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Conditions begin the period VFR before showers and embedded thunderstorms approach terminals after sunrise. Confidence has increased in at least intermittent precipitation at all terminals, with KMHK having higher chances than KTOP/KFOE. Input a TEMPO/PROB30 group for most likely timing of any TS, but think storms should be fairly isolated. Could see some MVFR cigs with heavier rain showers or any storms. Coverage of rain appears to lessen this evening before increasing again near the end or just beyond this TAF period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.