textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Lingering showers and storms from the overnight period should decrease in coverage into Friday morning.

-There remains several opportunities for rain and thunderstorms through the weekend and into next week with an active pattern taking shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A cold front continues to move southward through the forecast area and should be just south of the CWA by midday. Lingering showers and storms from the overnight hours should be winding down around sunrise as the LLJ relaxes and with less isentropic ascent north of the boundary. Some lingering flooding concerns will continue this morning in locations that saw several inches of rain overnight. Otherwise, have trended POPs down for the day with storms more likely to remain south of the area, closer to the surface front. RAP and HRRR forecast soundings agree with keeping low stratus in place, which will limit warming, keeping most locations in the 50s today. POPs increase again tonight as low level flow becomes more southerly and isentropic ascent increases. Scattered overnight convection will move north while the front south of the area shifts northward as a warm front Saturday. Most models keep the warm sector quiet, but if a storm or two develops, there will be around 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and around 25 kts of deep layer shear for storms to work with.

A few weak waves in the southwest flow aloft will continue to keep some elevated POPs around through the weekend, especially Saturday night into early Sunday with another LLJ enhancement. A dryline and cold front will start to take shape in western/central KS on Sunday. Uncertainty remains concerning storm chances through Sunday and even on Monday when the dryline looks to be closer to the area. The better chance for another round of widespread storms still appears to be late Tuesday as a more notable wave approaches from the west. Timing will make a difference on the severe threat, which remains somewhat uncertain given model differences.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Rain and storms are forecast to impact terminals at times overnight. The forecast is largely based on current radar trends as short-term models are not handling precip location well. Thus, some amendments may be needed. Confidence in IFR CIGS is increasing with most models and forecast sounding showing those conditions building in from the north. Have held onto IFR most of the period with confidence not high on when any improvement will occur. Storm chances increase again toward the end of the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.