textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Today looks warm and mostly dry with low rain chances (15-30%) coming to east central KS this evening and overnight.

- Highest rain chances (40-60%) are Thursday into Friday followed by hit or miss showers and storms this weekend. Severe weather potential remains very low.

- Near average temperatures are forecast Thursday through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite and upper air analysis showed an upper level low over central CA. A low amplitude upper level trough was located across north TX. The northern stream branch of the upper level jet was located across central Canada, then dipped down southeast across the eastern Great Lakes, into New England. An upper level ridge was centered across the eastern northern Plains. The mid and upper level flow was across KS was from the southeast.

The 17Z surface maps showed a ridge of high pressure over the Mid MS River Valley, extending southwest into southeast KS. Winds were light from the east across the southern counties, and southeast across the northern counties.

Tonight through Thursday:

The upper low will dig southeast into southern NV. The mid level perturbation over northern TX, will lift northward into western KS and OK by 00Z Friday. Initially the mid level flow will be southeasterly across eastern KS but through the day as the minor perturbation lifts north, the mid level flow will veer more to the south, and southwest but remain very light under 10 KTS. An area of isentropic lift combined with ascent ahead of the H5 perturbation will cause scattered showers and a few thunderstorm to develop across northern OK and southern KS, extending northwest into western KS. This area of showers and thunderstorms will lift northward through the day and will reach areas north of I-70 during the afternoon hours. There will continue to be the advection of dry air parcels around the surface ridge across the northeast counties. thus it may take until Thursday evening for the showers to reach the northeast counties of the CWA. Most CAMs are slower shifting the showers and storms northward across the the CWA during the day on Thursday.

Thursday night through Wednesday:

Richer moisture will be in place across the eastern KS through the period. The weak perturbation across OK will shift north and begin to dissipate Friday night. However the upper low across the southwest US will begin to fill as if lifts northeast across the central Rockies by Sunday, and into the northern High Plains by Tuesday night. The southeast quadrant of this H5 trough may provide enough lift, given richer moisture in place, and a weak CAP for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the periods. The best chances will occur during the late afternoon hours and into the night. High temperatures Thursday through Friday will only reach the lower 80s due to more cloud cover and chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. The vertical wind shear looks weak, so I do not expect any organized severe thunderstorms. A lee surface trough will begin to deepen along the high Plains allowing for southerly winds with highs reaching the mid 80s Sunday and Monday.

The LREF shows most of the area getting between 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall from Tuesday afternoon through next Monday. The northeast counties will receive between .5 to 1 inch. The southern and southwest counties may receive 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall.

Once the western H5 trough lifts northeast into the northern high Plains on Monday night, we should see less ascent and lower PoPs, may be even less that 10 percent next Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will continue to reach the mid 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Expect VFR conditons for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light from the east. A few showers may develop around the terminals between 14Z through 18Z THU.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.