textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Areas of frost later this morning followed by patchy frost once again Monday morning.
- Gradually warming temperatures in the 60s through Tuesday and likely 70s Wednesday onward.
- Active flow pattern signals modest rain chances after early Tuesday. Most likely widespread shower and thunderstorm chances focus on late Thursday-Saturday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026
Dry northwest flow aloft this morning as sfc ridge axis continues to spread across the state through sunrise. Observed temps are in the low-middle 30s with areas of frost expected to develop within the next few hours, if not already. No major changes to the forecast through today and Monday. Northwest winds increase this afternoon from 10-15 mph, highest over north central areas. Highs today are pretty uniform in the middle-upper 60s, becoming more widespread on Monday as a lee trough develops a warm front bisecting the state. Locations near the NE border are forecast to reach the mid 50s, stretching to the upper 60s in central KS.
Next embedded shortwave trough to impact the region arrives early Tuesday. Available operational and ensemble guidance tracks the optimal forcing from NE into northern MO, potentially clipping far northern Kansas. Temps overnight into Tuesday fall to the middle 30s, as forecast soundings hint at low potential for a light wintry mix, most likely rain. Lack of persistent moisture and lift however lends to decent confidence for minimal impacts.
As the aforementioned warm front lifts into NE later Tuesday, warm advection scattered showers and non-severe storms are possible Tuesday evening. A stronger upper low passing through the northern plains forces a cold front and accompanying showers/storms into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. The front lingers through the weekend as a poignant southern stream low and several upstream perturbations bring several chances for precipitation. Current probabilities for widespread heavy rain or severe weather are low at this time.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026
VFR at sites as light winds pickup to around 10 kts for a few hours aft 15Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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