textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Mainly dry forecast for the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend.

-Dew points are slightly lower but temperatures will remain warm.

-Temperatures increase further this weekend with highs approaching 100 degrees by Sunday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

An amplified, meridional mid-level pattern remains in place over the CONUS with a ridge axis over the western US and troughs over the eastern US and just off the Pacific Northwest coastline. A shortwave in the northwest flow is generating a complex of storms in far southwestern KS. That rain should stay well to our west today. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build in from the north behind the weak cold front that moved through the area yesterday. A slightly drier air mass with the ridge means lower dew points than recent days. The lower dew points will make for a few pleasant mornings with lows in the low 60s early today and again tonight into early Friday. Afternoon temperatures, however, will remain fairly warm in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees for most, especially near and south of I-70.

Another shortwave will likely trigger storms in western Nebraska this evening. A few CAMs show an associated MCS moving southward into north-central KS and possibly clipping the far western CWA tonight, but there is not enough consistency from models to go much higher than slight chance POPs. South winds increase on Friday as the surface ridge moves east of the area and low pressure deepens over the Front Range and High Plains. Temperatures respond to stronger southerly flow and height rises aloft this weekend. Highs top out in the mid 90s on Saturday and could approach 100 degrees on Sunday. The heat index will be a few degrees higher with dew points in the upper 60s. Overnight lows will also be very warm, mainly in the mid to upper 70s. See the climate section below for a look at the record highest minimum temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

A surface trough axis will sit across central KS this weekend, but weak forcing and a strong cap should keep conditions dry. Temperatures will remain above average heading into September with low POPs early next week, mainly during nighttime hours.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR prevails this period. Skies will be mainly clear and winds will be light from the north today. There is a low probability for a few rain showers Friday morning. Will have to monitor model trends to see if confidence increases enough to include mention in future TAFs.

CLIMATE

Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast August 30 Topeka 79, set in 1932 75 Concordia 78, set in 1951 77

August 31 Topeka 77, set in 1912 and 1947 77 Concordia 81, set in 1947 76

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.