textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low chance (15-20%) for a storm to develop this afternoon/evening. If a storm forms, it could be strong to severe.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected Sunday through much of next week. Afternoon heat indices reach 100 to 110 degrees each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Zonal mid-level flow persists across the Central Plains this morning with a convectively enhanced shortwave moving across Kansas. Abundant low-level moisture has allowed for low clouds to fill back in overnight, with some fog developing as well. Fog could become dense in spots and will monitor observations for the need of a Dense Fog Advisory. The aforementioned shortwave is pushing showers and storms from western Kansas towards the forecast area, but expect this activity is decrease in intensity and coverage as it approaches. There could be some showers or a rumble of thunder this morning before activity wanes.

Decreasing cloud cover through the day will allow for destabilization of the atmosphere and SBCAPE will rise to 2500-3500 J/kg by this afternoon. Shear also increases through the day, although large-scale ascent is still progged to be weak. CAMs fail to develop any convection due to a slight capping inversion and lack of focused ascent. While the chance for any storm to develop remains low (15-20%), any mesoscale feature (MCV or remnant outflow) could provide enough ascent to generate a storm or two in a favorable environment for severe weather this afternoon/evening.

The first prolonged stretch of dangerous heat so far this summer begins Sunday as mid-level ridging amplifies across the Mississippi Valley. Gusty south winds will boost temperatures into the 90s with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s each day from Sunday through much of next week. This will create heat indices in the upper 90s to as hot as 110 degrees each afternoon. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area from Sunday through Tuesday, but heat headlines are likely to be needed beyond Tuesday as well. There is still some uncertainty in how high heat indices will reach, especially across north central Kansas where dew points may be slightly lower Tue-Wed. However, the prolonged nature of the heat with limited overnight relief (lows in the mid to upper 70s) will lead to cumulative heat impacts. This may support an Extreme Heat Warning area-wide even if afternoon heat indices are more borderline, around 100 degrees, at times. Waves of energy on the western periphery of the ridge could spark convection across the High Plains midweek. Showers/storms may approach north central Kansas, but confidence in timing and location of any showers/storms is low this far out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Conditions deteriorate early in the period with the return of IFR/LIFR cigs. High boundary layer moisture should lead to some fog development as well, although how dense fog becomes is uncertain. Cigs improve through the morning hours, becoming VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Winds increase from the southeast to 10-15kts this afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.