textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The dangerous heat wave persists through at least Saturday evening with heat indices from 100 to 108, peaking on Friday and Saturday afternoons. Overnight lows are near record warmth in the middle to upper 70s.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible (20% chance) across north central and far northern Kansas this evening and again on Friday evening. Overall coverage is isolated at best while severe probabilities remain low.

- A more organized upper wave will lead to a cluster of strong storms developing over NE before moving southward into the forecast area late Saturday evening. Additional storms may redevelop along a boundary on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Southwest flow aloft is present this morning, lifting a few embedded waves from the Texas Panhandle into northern Nebraska. A few decaying showers have been noted from Morris to Riley counties while scattered, stronger storms are further west in north central Kansas. Atmosphere becomes less conducive to support updrafts in northeast Kansas so the expectation is for these to dissipate before sunrise, leading residual mid and high clouds for the afternoon. Depth of warm advection in the low levels is not as strong due to southerly winds being slightly weaker from 15 to 20 mph sustained, gusting to 30 mph. Denser cloud cover in north central Kansas along with dewpoints in the upper 60s result in heat indices from the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Over east central Kansas however, cloud cover is less sparse, allowing highs to reach the lower and middle 90s while dewpoints are in the low 70s. Heat indices to around 105 degrees are once again expected. Similar conditions are anticipated on Thursday afternoon so have decided to keep the Extreme Heat Warning where heat indices are most likely to see 105 over east central Kansas with a Heat Advisory issued elsewhere as heat indices are near 100 degrees.

In terms of precipitation chances, short term guidance continues with the weak isentropic lift above 700 mb, possibly resulting in scattered sprinkles over north central Kansas through late morning, but otherwise a dry forecast today. Similar to the previous evening, another embedded wave triggers clusters of storms in western Kansas this evening before weakening eastward to north central counties overnight. An additional line of storms is also possible to develop over Nebraska with the latest Namnest being an outlier for storms bypassing Republic county. Given the better lift focusing well west and northwest of the forecast area, slight chance pops seemed appropriate while the severe probabilities remain low.

Beginning on Friday, mid level heights increase westward, lifting the southwesterlies northward heading into the holiday weekend. Mostly sunny skies and warmer temps will once again bring heat indices up to 108 degrees. Similar conditions are expected on Saturday except with slightly higher dewpoints into the middle 70s. Confidence is increasing for an Extreme Heat Warning being expanded on Friday and Saturday.

Latest guidance is trending slower with a cluster of severe storms moving southward into northeast Kansas around 06Z Sunday and thereafter. If the storms have an established cold pool, damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard with these storms. A residual boundary sets up over the region on Sunday afternoon, becoming the focus for scattered severe storms. Dependent upon the location of the boundary, heat indices may be able reach 100-105 degrees in far east central Kansas once again. Next week, upper ridge axis persists over the southeast CONUS while weak northern troughing signals occasional slight chance pops throughout the region. Dewpoints are slightly lower, but unfortunately still hot and humid with heat indices around 100.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Marginal speed LLWS overnight as winds are not as strong near 45 kts at 2 kft. Removed the gusts overnight based on obs and forecast soundings. VFR prevails at terminals as south winds increase aft 14Z, gusting over 20 kts during the daytime period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature

July 1 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 82 (1933) 76 Concordia 86 (1933) 75

July 2 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 78 (1925) 77 Concordia 78 (1974) 74

July 3 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 77 Concordia 80 (1934) 75

July 4 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1911, 1969) 76 Concordia 82 (1934) 73

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035- KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.