textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Band of very light snow continues to break up as it works into northeastern Kansas and should completely exit the area before sunrise.

- Warming trend kicks in gear today with a minor interruption Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning with the passage of a weak cold front through the area.

- Snow chance for Tuesday night/Wed morning still holds less than 20% across northern portions of the area with an overall dry pattern in place.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

A highly amplified pattern remains in place this morning with a significant and deep trough with closed mid to upper level low pressure system impacting the Eastern Coast of the CONUS with a major winter weather system. Northwest flow remains stretched from the northern Plains into the southeastern CONUS on the western flank of the East Coast system. A highly amplified western trough is in place over the western third of the CONUS.

Early this morning a very weak and shallow band of isentropic ascent remains across the area before advecting east by sunrise. This may help provide sufficient lift along within pockets of low-level saturation to help squeeze out a few snowflakes across some northeastern Kansas areas. Not expecting much if any measurable snowfall as a very subtle vort max transitions southeast of the area allowing for the isentropic downglide to fully set up across the area.

Today, the upper ridge over the west expands into the area with very slight high rises gradually setting up in concern with the southwest flow on the return side of the surface high pressure cell which has shifted southeast of the area. Expect a nice rise in temperatures with clearing skies into this morning and afternoon. Upper 30s should be common but 40s into the mid 40s will also be seen especially western zones. Could be some areas of fog Sunday night into Monday morning if winds calm and skies remain clear. Most likely would be shallow as it looks right now with the melting snow a source of near surface BL moisture. Monday extends the period of warming temperatures with rising heights aloft.

Tuesday afternoon will be slightly cooler but still near-normal despite a weak cold front working into the area as the a quick moving shortwave dives into the area within the northwest flow pattern. Could see a few snowflakes by early Wednesday morning across some northern areas as nocturnal cooling along with the weak CAA helps set up a shallow layer of low-level saturation. Lift overall is weak so may just remain in the form of clouds also considering the source region of the incoming front will be of a cP source region and thus overall dry.

Good confidence remains with a fairly tight spread in forecast solutions suggesting that temperatures warm into the 50s by Thursday and Friday supported by the western ridge broadening across the area and mean Westerlies residing well to the north of the region. Spreads widen slightly into the weekend with the cP airmass remaining off to the northeast of the area but left the forecast into the upper 40s with both GFS and ECMWF suggesting that even if ridging breaks down and shifts east of the area that the source region for any emerging weather system appears to be from the west/southwest which wouldn't favor a major change in the airmass already in place by the end of the week. Stay tuned but still looks like next weekend stands a shot at being pretty decent for the first full weekend in February.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 439 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail through much of the period with the exception possibly coming after 06Z when fog may become possible. Still a little too uncertain if winds calm enough to allow for more widespread concerns to develop. Snow melt today at all terminal sites will allow for BL layer moisture to be present. If paired with sufficiently calm winds and clear skies into the 06-12Z time frame, then wouldn't rule out radiational fog becoming an aviation hazard.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.