textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Patchy fog potential late tonight into Monday morning.
- Warm and benign conditions Monday through next weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Overall little change seen in latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. Broad upper ridging over the southwest states keeps a modest northwest flow pattern in place over the central Plains through the work week. The weak front that moved through overnight was well south of the area at midday today with modest surface high pressure over eastern Nebraska. Daytime temperatures and dewpoints appear to be warmer and drier, respectively, than NBM progs again today and have trended values in this manner over the next few periods. Despite this, tonight brings another night of potential ground fog development given light winds and clear skies as ground conditions remain damp. Have mentioned patchy fog formation for the bulk of the area with some support from guidance, especially the RAP. Any fog should dissipate by mid-morning Monday with southerly winds returning and plenty of sun for another mild day and a warmer Tuesday.
Another weak front looks to sink south into the area Wednesday with some solutions producing light precipitation mainly just north of the area Wednesday night into Thursday night as moisture profiles deepen slightly. Local chances below 10 percent seem reasonable at this time. The pattern changes somewhat late in the forecast with the ridge push east and breaking down. Dry conditions still seem on target at this range with above normal temperatures.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Main question is the potential for BR/MIFG/FG after 03Z at all sites as modest surface high pressure builds in. Crossover temperatures should be a few degrees above low temperatures with light winds and clear skies. Short-term guidance gives some support for development and BR/MIFG started forming around 04Z Sunday at TOP. Given more favorable conditions, expect more issues than early today and have MVFR to IFR conditions centered around 12Z. VFR conditions should return by 15Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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