textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very high fire danger is forecast for parts of north central Kansas this afternoon. Avoid activities that could spark a fire.

- Potentially damaging winds are forecast with a developing storm system Sunday. Northwest winds could gust between 50 and 60 mph.

- Much colder air moves in Sunday with falling temperatures through the day. Wind chill values are expected to be zero to 10 below zero by Monday morning.

- The cold air is forecast to be temporary. Above normal temperatures with highs in the lower 80s are expected by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

07Z water vapor imagery showed a shortwave amplifying over the Pacific Northwest with the flow over the Rockies and into the Great Plains becoming a little more zonal. Surface obs had high pressure over the Upper Midwest ridging into eastern KS with a trough of low pressure along the central high plains. Onshore winds along the TX gulf coast were already bringing some moisture back north.

The focus of the forecast remains on the impactful weather expected on Sunday. Models are in good agreement with a shortwave trough amplifying over the central and northern plains Saturday night and Sunday. In response a surface low develops over NEB and moves into IA through the same period of time. This should cause a very strong surface pressure gradient to develop across the forecast area beginning Saturday night and persisting through Sunday night. Will keep the high wind watch going without changes. The strong pressure gradient and nearly perpendicular isallobaric wind flow make a strong case for wind gusts of 60 mph on Sunday behind the front. Additionally forecast soundings show low level dry adiabatic lapse rates with up to 60KT within the mixed layer. So the signals for damaging winds remain in place. As for precip, models (and specifically the GFS) have trended lower with QPF as the struggle to saturate mid levels. There does look to be a brief period of saturation on the back side of the low were some snow is possible. But ensembles show the probability of exceeding an inch of snow at around 30 percent across far northeast KS. These probabilities drop off as one goes west and south. So snow accumulations look to remain minor with this system. Still falling snow with gusts around 50 mph is going to make for difficult travel conditions. Since snow amounts are expected to be less than an inch, feel like it is better to be more tactical with any winter headlines as they will be the secondary impact to the strong winds.

Models continue to show the cold front pushing into the forecast area around day break. This is likely to cause falling temps through the day Sunday with temps remaining fairly mild through the overnight hours. Continued to blend the twenty fifth percentile of the NBM to better reflect the strong cold air advection anticipated through the day Sunday. Forcing for vertical motion and mid level saturation exit east of the area Sunday evening. This should bring an end to precip chances with very cold air settling in.

The forecast calls for dry weather to persist for Monday through Friday. Upper level ridging is still progged to develop over the southwest and expand towards the southern high plains. Cluster analysis of the 00Z ensembles shows pretty good agreement in the ridge with the main differences in the magnitude of the ridging over the northern Rockies and into the Canadian plains. So predictability of the pattern looks to be good and lends better confidence to the NBM initialization. Warmer temps into the back half of the week are also supported by the hybrid GEFS and AIGEFS.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the forecast period. Think the NAM is overdoing the low level saturation Saturday night with it's bias to be too cool in the boundary layer. Good mixing thanks to a strengthening pressure gradient should entrain dry air into the boundary layer and keep warmer temps in place. The turbulent mixing is also expected to minimize wind shear potential Saturday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Very high fire danger is forecast across parts of north central KS this afternoon. Moisture return doesn't really kick in until late in the day. So RH values are expected to fall into the 25 to 30 percent range across north central KS and around 40 percent over eastern KS. There could be some occasional gusts around 25 mph. But with RH remaining above 20 percent, there are no plans for a red flag warning at this time.

Fire weather concerns for Sunday are centered entirely on the strong winds behind the front. There is good confidence in northwest winds gusting around 50 mph as the front passes, and persisting into Sunday evening. However the falling temperatures behind the front are forecast to keep RH values around 50 percent.

Monday may be a potential red flag day as the surface high passes over the area. Dry air is forecast to bring RH values down to around 20 percent while northwest winds continue to gust around 30 mph.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058.