textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing severe weather risk this afternoon and evening, mainly towards central and north-central KS. Damaging winds, small hail, and a tornado or two possible. Flood Watch also in effect as locally heavy rain likely in places north of Interstate 70.

- Another round of rain and storms expected Friday night, followed by more rain Saturday night into Sunday night. Total rainfall through the weekend of an inch or more likely (>70% chance) for most.

- Temperatures stay a bit above average through the weekend, then turn even warmer towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Increasing severe weather risk this afternoon and evening, mainly towards central and north-central KS. Damaging winds, small hail, and a tornado or two possible. Flood Watch also in effect as locally heavy rain likely in places north of Interstate 70.

- Another round of rain and storms expected Friday night, followed by more rain Saturday night into Sunday night. Total rainfall through the weekend of an inch or more likely (>70% chance) for most.

- Temperatures stay a bit above average through the weekend, then turn even warmer towards the middle of next week.

Water vapor and satellite imagery this morning are depicting an MCV over southwest Kansas. This MCV will be the focus for the next 24 hours as it lifts northeast across the area. The first concern with this system will be heavy rain. Portions of central Kansas already received 1-4" of rain over the past six hours, associated with a lead round of persistent isentropic ascent. As forcing increases with the main MCV, expecting to see another round or two of rain and storms develop. With PWAT increasing to around 1.75" (near the climatological maximum for early June) and poor mid-level lapse rates leading to high freezing levels, expecting efficient rainfall production with the thunderstorms. Some uncertainty with where the axis of heaviest rainfall will set up, but confidence is high enough for a zone of heavy rain north of I-70 to issue a Flood Watch for this area. Aside from the heavy rain, there is an increasing concern for some severe weather close to the track of the MCV. Modest deep layer shear and the poor mid-level lapse rates are two negatives for severe weather, but low-level shear will steadily increase over the PM as the MCV passes through. Most guidance has a LLJ increasing to around 30 kts by mid-evening, with slightly backed surface winds resulting in good low-level curvature. Coupled with a very moist boundary layer and around 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE, a few low-topped supercells may be able to develop. These would be capable of locally damaging winds, small hail, and a tornado or two. Observations (particularly satellite and surface wind) throughout the morning will hopefully help to get a better idea of the tornado threat.

After a brief break Friday, another shortwave trough moves across the central Plains Friday night. Expectations are for initial thunderstorms to develop along a boundary in southern Nebraska before moving southeast into the area. Shear is a bit weaker with this system and forcing weaker, so think storms won't be quite as widespread. However higher instability could still lead to a few strong to severe storms (wind and hail as the main hazards) along with more locally heavy rain.

Another brief break arrives for the day Saturday as shortwave ridging builds overhead. However by Saturday night another upper low will begin to lift northeast out of western Texas. This will result in another increase in showers and thunderstorms, peaking during the day Sunday as the low moves across the area. Given the deep moisture transport, potential for another axis of an inch or two (locally higher) of rain. Currently this appears most likely to be located over east-central KS, hopefully slightly offset from the heaviest rain today and tonight. Regardless, will have to watch for some more flooding potential through Sunday night.

Ridging then builds in for the first part of next week. This will result in hot and humid conditions as we head towards mid-week. Some indications for our first 100+ degree heat indices of the summer Tuesday into Wednesday. Some low precipitation chances may linger with any subtle perturbations moving under the longwave ridge, but predictability with these remains quite low for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Showers and thunderstorms overnight, with some associated MVFR ceilings, should stay west of KMHK, but become more widespread tomorrow afternoon and evening as a weak low approaches. Still uncertainty on exact timing and placement, so will stick with a prob30 group for now. Ceilings look mainly VFR, but could see some scattered pockets of MVFR ceilings for a brief time mid-day. Winds become southerly during the day at around 10 kts.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ034.