textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Turning colder Friday through the weekend, with Sunday being the coldest day. Lows will be in the single digits Sunday morning and highs will only reach into the 20s.

- Low chances (10-20%) for light snow across far northeastern Kansas on Saturday.

- Trending warmer Monday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Northwest flow aloft prevails this afternoon across the region with southwesterly surface winds bumping temperatures into the 40s and 50s across the local area, with even some 60s and 70s across central and western Kansas! An embedded shortwave in the broad northwest flow will push a cold front through the forecast area overnight. While FROPA will be dry, CAA behind the boundary will keep highs on Friday in the mid 30s to low 40s, 10-15 degrees cooler than today's highs. Another wave dives southeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday, shunting a stronger cold front through the area. While the majority of guidance keeps precipitation associated with this wave north of the forecast area, there are a handful of members (10-20% of the GEFS, ENS, and GEPS suites) that bring light snow into far northeast Kansas. Little to no accumulation is expected even if some light snow does work far enough south to impact the area.

Colder air filters in behind the front and highs on Saturday will vary from the low 20s near the KS/NE stateline to the mid 30s across east-central Kansas. A 1045mb high takes control of the central CONUS Saturday night into Sunday, allowing for temperatures to fall into the single digits. Winds decrease through the overnight hours and will be rather light by sunrise Sunday, but even light winds will create wind chills in the single digits below zero. Southerly winds do return by Sunday afternoon with plenty of sunshine, but the colder airmass holds strong and highs will only reach the 20s Sunday afternoon. The surface ridge slides east by Monday with quasi-zonal flow taking control through the middle of next week. Temperatures warm back into the 50s by Tuesday with dry conditions favored to continue.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 451 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

It is unclear how far south a stratus deck makes it behind the coldfront Friday morning. There is a signal from the models, especially the 21Z RAP. But the RAP has not been the most consistent. Probabilities from the NBM for MVFR CIGS are only around 25 percent. The the HREF does show some better chances for a window of MVFR CIGS around midday. Will follow the probabilities for now keeping the forecast VFR and see how the 00Z guidance comes in. Otherwise surface ridging builds in with northerly winds in the 5 to 15KT range and mid to high level clouds streaming overhead.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.