textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible in low-lying areas around sunrise this morning, but not expected to be widespread.

- Near-average temperatures continue through Tuesday before a warming trend begins Wednesday and into the weekend.

- Dry weather will be expected over the next 7 days as upper level ridging dominates the central US.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows a large dome of high pressure beginning to spread into the central US from the western US, troughing over the PNW with the associated jet stream noted across southern Canada. A weak shortwave is noted across the Ozarks and will continue to move south and east of the area through the day today. Surface ridging dominates northeast Kansas once again as mostly clear skies and light winds have aided in efficient radiational cooling this morning. With dewpoints still in the upper 60s and low 70s, cannot rule out some patchy fog again around sunrise this morning, but mainly in low-lying areas and river valleys. For the remainder of the day, the mid-level ridge will track into the northern and central Plains as surface high pressure remains parked across Iowa. Light easterly low-level flow, ample sunshine with rising h5 heights will keep temperatures near average this afternoon - topping out in the upper 80s and low 90s. Similar conditions will continue over the early part of the work week as high temperatures Monday and Tuesday again top out around 90 degrees under mostly sunny skies.

A subtle change comes by Wednesday and into the weekend as the weak mid-level cyclone across the southeastern US retrogrades back west towards the southern Plains. This should return low-level flow back towards the south/southwest and help to promote deeper mixing each afternoon. Expect temperatures Wednesday to warm into the mid 90s and up towards the upper 90s by the weekend. That said, NBM 25th and 75th temperature spreads still remain rather large at this time prompting some hesitancy in confidence for temperatures above triple digits by the weekend. Outside of cloud cover and low-end chances for storms by the weekend acting as a potential forecast busts, the set up does seem favorable for triple digit high temperatures to be seen over the weekend. That said, chances over the next 7 days for rain/storms remains below 10%.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Surface ridging dominates the region and should keep VFR conditions present through the period. Some shallow ground fog may continue at KTOP around sunrise, but should quickly burn off by 8AM.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.