textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold today and tonight warming on Sunday after a few morning flurries pass through portions of the area.

- Another cold front moves into the area for Monday.

- Temperatures warm with return flow again on Tuesday with near normal temperatures the the balance of the upcoming week.

- Large spread remains with any weather system potential impacting the area into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Overall, there has been and remains little immediate change in the large scale weather pattern across the CONUS. A broad and deep trough hangs on across much of the CONUS with northwest flow across the region. A western ridge remains in place as well.

Across the local area, a surface high pressure ridge continues to expand into the area this afternoon. Winds continue with weak CAA continuing this afternoon before winds finally relax into this evening. Flurries have mostly subsided across the are with areas of saturation more shallow along with waning lift through the saturated layer. This is resulting in mostly low to mid clouds hanging on across the area ranging from BKN to SCT and should trend clear into this evening and overnight.

A cold night is in store with lows in the single digits to 10s. By early morning on Sunday around sunrise into mid-morning, there appears to be a subtle shortwave that dives into the region from Canada and the northern plains ahead of the next more significant cold front. With dry subcloud air in place in the lowest several thousand feet, expect only flurries if anything can be produced in a saturated layer along with lift produced by the accompanying shortwave energy. Unlikely, that any significant impacts are seen across the area at this time.

Warmer temperatures develop ahead of the cold front on track to enter the area into Sunday afternoon. If arrival is earlier and more stratus hangs around temperatures may be to optimistically high for this forecast cycle. Right now, looking to near-normal temperatures with highs around 40 to the mid 40s for tomorrow.

Monday, a broad surface ridge and associated 1032mb high pressure cell expands into the area again behind the cold front. Temperatures only rise from the 10s to the 20s across the area on Monday even with clearing skies.

The pattern overall begins to undergo a change with southwest return flow developing on Tuesday helping to warm back to around normal temperatures for the balance of the week with a more quasi-zonal flow regime developing. For now, too much spread amongst ensemble and operational solutions exist to have more than low confidence in even the mention of a winter system developing into next weekend. The wide range exists from a developing winter storm system possible as northern stream energy merges with southern stream energy across the central Plains to nothing at all with southern stream energy sliding across the southern CONUS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 507 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. A strong cold front will swing through from northwest to southeast tomorrow afternoon. Wind will shift from the southwest to northwest and wind gusts around 30 knots are likely through the end of the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.