textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme fire danger today and Sunday with a Red Flag Warning area- wide through this evening and another issued for Sunday. Wind Advisory has also been issued for Sunday.

- Record-setting heat continues today, then cooling down Sunday and Monday but still near or above average.

- Warmer (but less hot) weather returns mid-week with mainly dry weather continuing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

The upper ridge responsible for the record heat is slowly being pushed south as a shortwave trough is moving from the Pacific NW across the Intermountain West. A surface low has been moving across northern MN today with its cold front across SD in response to the upper wave. Ahead of this system, gradually increasing southwest winds, deep mixing, and ample sunshine have helped us warm into the low 90s once again. This morning's 12Z TOP sounding had a steep low- level inversion that looked very similar to the one yesterday morning. Both had 850mb temps at 20C with an even warmer layer below that. This still sets us up well for setting new daily and monthly record highs with a couple hours of heating yet to go.

As the shortwave aloft progresses east into the Plains and pushes the associated cold front southward, this will bring quick changes into Sunday. Winds should generally stay breezy overnight and may relax some with the sfc trough ahead of the cold front. However, quick pressure rises just behind the boundary will lead to winds turning much stronger from the north as the front passes in the morning. Hi-res guidance has been fairly consistent in showing a surge of wind gusts up to 45mph, perhaps even 50mph based on the RAP/HRRR, which appears to be on the high end. This signal is strongest in north central KS immediately behind the front and lasting for a few hours beyond that. Felt this was enough to justify a Wind Advisory for our westernmost counties. Confidence was lower further east as winds become more marginal for an advisory and are favored to stay below 40mph for the majority of east central KS. Generally speaking, winds peak during the morning hours and should gradually decrease thereafter, but will remain breezy through the afternoon with gusts to around 35mph. With the front looking to be through the area by 18Z and CAA increasing through the afternoon, have forecast highs in the 60s mainly northwest of the Turnpike and 70s southeast. CAA continues into Monday, leading to highs closer to average in the upper 50s to low 60s.

For Tuesday through Thursday of next week, temperatures trend warmer once again. The upper ridge expands back to the north some with southerly low-level flow returning. Highs look to return to the 80s by Wednesday. There's more uncertainty in the forecast by Thursday, as guidance brings another cold front through the area later this week and has differed on the timing. More recent runs are bringing the boundary through as early as Thursday afternoon, which result in cooler temperatures than forecast. The NBM has a larger spread in this time frame than previously. Some post-frontal rain may move through Friday, but these chances are low at this time with dry weather continuing otherwise.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

TAFs remain VFR through the period with winds being the main aviation hazard. Winds will remain out of the southwest through this evening and into Sunday morning, occasionally gusting up to 20 mph at at times. Pilots may experience some low level turbulent mixing as a 30-40 knot LLJ overspreads the terminals early Sunday morning.

A strong cold front will move in from Nebraska around and just after sunrise Wednesday morning with very gusty conditions behind. Winds shift out of the north/northeast sustained around 20-25 mph with gusts upwards of 35-40 mph. Winds should weaken a bit into the afternoon Sunday, still gusting upwards of 30-35 mph.

FIRE WEATHER

Updated at 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

It took a bit longer for southwest winds to pick up this afternoon, but once they did it helped temperatures warm up more quickly. RH is between 10-20% across the area with gusts 20-25mph, which when combined with dry and cured fuels will keep extreme fire danger through the early evening. RH is slow to recover this evening, not looking to get above 30% until after 9pm at the earliest in east central KS, perhaps not until midnight towards north central counties.

Winds increase and shift to the north quickly with the passage of a cold front Sunday morning. Hi-res models are consistent in showing a surge of 40-45mph gusts in north central KS with the boundary and a few hours after, with everyone else likely seeing gusts up to 35mph through the afternoon. The cooler temperatures should keep RH higher than today in the 25-35% range. Even though RH values are not strictly meeting Red Flag criteria, felt that it was prudent to be more loose on that element given the quick changes in wind speed and direction following today's conditions, along with fuel status not changing into Sunday.

CLIMATE

Updated at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

March 21 - Record High Temperature

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 91 (1907, 1916) 96 Concordia 97 (1907) 95

March Monthly Record High Topeka: 93 on March 22, 1907 and March 31, 1946 Concordia: 97 on March 21, 1907

In a more obscure climate stat - the forecast of 96 on Saturday would be an 86 degree swing from the low of 10 Monday morning. This would be the 2nd largest swing in temperatures within a one week (or less) period, and the only one week period on record to see a low of 15 or less and a high of 90 or more. The two most similar temperature swings also occurred in March. An 88 degree rise from -4 on March 8, 1967 to 84 on March 10, 1967 is the most extreme warming on record at TOP. More recently in 2009, the temperature rose from 9 degrees on March 2 to 86 on March 5.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ034. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ035-KSZ036- KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.