textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms move eastward from north central to eastern KS late tonight into Friday morning.

- Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue at times through Saturday, although there will be dry time as well.

- Dry weather is expected Sunday and most of Monday before rain chances return Monday night through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Circulation from the upper-level trough can be seen via water vapor imagery around the AZ-Mexico border with moisture streaming out ahead of it into the Southern and Central Plains. The ridge remains parked in the Gulf up through the Lower MS River Valley. Meanwhile another upper trough is amplifying off the Pacific Northwest coast. At the surface, a less-defined area of low pressure is noted in southwest KS and southeast CO. The first batch of showers with isolated thunder is making its way through north central KS where the deeper moisture is located, and should continue moving north- northeast through the rest of the afternoon. There looks to be a bit of a lull in precip early this evening before isentropic lift increases and brings more scattered showers and embedded storms west to east later tonight. Periods of rain will continue at times Friday and Saturday as DCVA increases with shortwaves rounding the ridge and helping to increase synoptic lift. That said, coverage remains scattered and there may also be lulls in activity with more isolated rain Friday afternoon and early evening. So it will not be raining continuously at any particular location and a washout is not anticipated over the next couple of days. Pwat values look to be at their peak tonight into Friday (1.5-1.9") and then decrease into Saturday with only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE to support convection. That could result in some heavy downpours at times, but am not anticipating enough to result in major flooding concerns. In general, hi-res guidance suggests some isolated locations could see rain totals of 2+ inches, though 0.5-1.5" seems more realistic for most places.

There is still some uncertainty on how soon the last shortwave departs and when exactly rain will end altogether Saturday night, but overall it looks like we should be drying out by Sunday morning. Low-amplitude ridging favors dry weather Sunday and most of Monday, although there isn't much of a warm-up in store as low-level winds turn northerly and easterly. The strengthening Pacific trough then makes it way across the CONUS and brings the next cold front Monday night into Tuesday, which brings the next best chance for rain. Models diverge on the speed and amplitude of this system by Wednesday, and PoPs continue but with lower confidence. One possible scenario is for a more amplified and progressive trough, while another scenario is for the upper low to become cut off and meander around the central US through the end of the week. Either way, at least somewhat cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front by Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the TAF period are favored. Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible off and on through the TAF period. The most likely windows for the terminals to be impacted are presently at KMHK, from 04z to 08z at all sites and after 12z at all sites. The most likely time for widespread rain is the 04-08z window. After 12z precipitation becomes more scattered, but the threat for isolated thunderstorms increases slightly. An active pattern will remain through the weekend with additional chances for showers and storms.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.