textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild June temperatures today and Tuesday with a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms tonight.

- Much warmer Wednesday with near-Advisory heat indices and some chance for severe thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

- Near-normal temperatures late week into the weekend with precipitation chances for much of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Northwest flow aloft still dominates over the next several days. Surface high pressure over the central Plains sinks southeast resulting in westerly flow to provide modest low-level warm-air advection for a slightly warmer day today despite some increase in mid cloud late. This cloud and a modest low-level jet developing tonight ahead of a weak cold front leads to some isentropic ascent with very weak instability and precipitable water values back to around 1.3" to provide some chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into early Tuesday.

The cold front drifts to the south and modifies into late Tuesday with a stronger wave entering the northern Plains. Seasonally-quick flow per ESAT data swings this wave across this region Wednesday with a trailing cold front moving through eastern Kansas in the afternoon. Anomalously-low surface low pressure via ESAT values in Iowa/Minnesota brings humid air back in but flow off the surface remains somewhat veered, thus GFS CAPE values look overinflated based on its forecast soundings, but 2000-3000 J/kg seem reasonable in mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. Surface temps into the 90s and dewpoints around 70 will support heat indices around 100 F ahead of the front. Some CIN looks to linger with 700 mb temps around 15 C and how far convection can form this far removed from the upper wave is in question. At this point mid-range PoPs from the NBM over southern and eastern areas seem reasonable.

Surface high pressure steadily builds in late Thursday into Friday for somewhat cooler temperatres with little opportunity for precipitation. An active zonal flow pattern sets up this weekend for several chances for showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Other than some shallow ground fog at KTOP that should diminish very quickly, VFR conditions will continue through at least 03Z. Chances for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms increase beyond that but the potential for impacts even if they do develop is low. Winds remain light and become westerly over the next several hours and may back somewhat after 00Z.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.