textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably pleasant today, slightly hotter Monday and Tuesday.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms Tuesday night through Friday, highest during the evening and overnight hours.

- Becoming hotter this weekend with heat index values forecast to be back around 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The Central Plains is wedged between a mid-level trough to the east and a ridge to the west with surface high pressure overhead. Light winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to cool into the low to mid 60s by daybreak. Patchy fog may develop in low-lying areas and river valleys this morning, but do not expect dense fog and it will burn off shortly after sunrise. While not as nice as yesterday, today will still be seasonably pleasant with light winds, sunny skies, and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Patchy fog could develop again tonight into early Monday morning, mainly across east central Kansas where surface winds are progged to be lighter. Even so, elevated winds just off the surface may lead to enough mixing to prevent fog development.

Low-level winds become southerly on Monday as the mid-level ridge expands over the Central Plains, leading to highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s both Monday and Tuesday. A strong shortwave moving across southern Canada and the Northern Plains will flatten the ridge and shunt a surface boundary into the area late Tuesday. This boundary meanders around the region through the end of the week with passing perturbations leading to periodic chances for showers and storms. The highest chances come during the overnight hours Tue-Thu night. The severe parameter space could support some strong to severe storms during this timeframe, but details are hard to decipher at this range. Temperature spreads widen with a 5-10 degree difference in NBM 25th-75th percentiles for highs, depending on daytime precipitation and cloud cover. The ridge does expand further to end the week, favoring hotter conditions with heat index values potentially around 100 degrees again next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Could still see brief reduction in VSBY at KTOP and KMHK from fog through 13z or so. Winds remain light, gradually veering from northerly this morning to the east-southeast by this evening.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.