textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot this afternoon with heat indices 104 to 108. Heat indices around 100 to 105 expected again tomorrow.

- Storms should weaken as they move into north-central KS around sunset, but may still briefly produce some damaging winds and small hail.

- More severe storm potential Wednesday evening along a cold front, and perhaps into Thursday afternoon across far east-central KS.

- Active pattern continues into early next week, with more chances for rain and strong to severe storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon is quite indicative of a busy week of weather, with broad ridging across the eastern CONUS and seasonably strong troughing over the western states. At the surface, outflow from last night's storms has washed out to our south, allowing richer surface moisture to move back north. With strong 850 mb WAA ahead of a developing lee trough, plus mostly sunny skies, temperatures are warming up quickly. Should see temperatures climb into the 90s by mid afternoon. With dewpoints also climbing, still expecting heat indices 104-108 at times, reaching solidly into Heat Advisory criteria. Aside from the heat, still watching some severe storm chances this evening, mainly towards north-central Kansas. As lee troughing continues to strengthen we should see higher-based convection develop across western Kansas, merging into a line of storms that will approach north-central Kansas towards sunset. Given shear decreasing with eastern extent and CIN increasing with time, still expecting storms to weaken and gust out as they move into the area. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a brief window (8-11 PM) for a few severe wind gusts across north-central KS, as well as small hail. However by late evening expectations are for the increasing CIN to win out, with any lingering storms diminishing.

Heading into tomorrow, a lead shortwave will lift northeast across the upper Midwest, pushing a cold front east towards our area. Another hot and humid airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with heat indices nearing 105 again. Confidence in Heat Advisory criteria being reached is slightly too low for now though, with some potential for some lingering mid-level clouds. By late afternoon and evening, convergence along the front should be enough for some scattered storms to develop. With plenty of instability, shear around 30-35 kts should be sufficient for a mix of multicells and supercells. Primary threats should be large hail and damaging winds given veered low level winds, but a brief tornado can't be ruled out if a storm stays discrete into the evening as the LLJ increases. A similar environment looks to be in place along the front again for Thursday. Recent guidance has slightly sped up the front's progression, so the severe risk may stay a bit to our southeast, but a slower front would see some lingering severe risk across far east- central KS.

Over the weekend and into next week we'll stay within a region of seasonably strong zonal flow aloft, anchored to the south of a deep upper low over southern Canada. As several shortwaves round the base of this trough we'll see additional fronts move across the area, bringing more rain and storm chances. At this point Saturday offers the best chance of severe storms, with good agreement in guidance of an unstable and moderately sheared environment ahead of a front. This system could push a cooler and drier airmass into the area for early next week, though if the front lingers just to our south we could remain in a more unsettled pattern.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Sustained south winds with gusts to around 25 kts will continue through the period, with not much of a decrease after sunset. Expecting some cumulus near the MVFR/VFR border this afternoon, with forecast soundings and current obs suggesting it stays generally scattered. Also watching storm potential west of MHK this evening, but most current guidance suggests storms fall apart before reaching the terminal.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056- KSZ058-KSZ059.