textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Scattered showers continue to impact northeast KS this afternoon.

-Thunderstorms are expected to move in from southern Nebraska tonight. A few strong wind gusts are possible with storms.

-Cooler and breezy conditions occur Friday/Saturday.

-Temperatures then warm slightly into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

At midday, the morning round of rain is exiting to the east while another batch of scattered showers continues to develop and expand across the western CWA while the remnants of an MCV slowly moves through central KS. That second round will progress eastward and out of the area by this evening. In the meantime, an H5 trough is digging over eastern MT into the High Plains of the Dakotas. That trough and an associated surface low will progress southeast into the heart of the Midwest tomorrow. Thunderstorms still look to develop ahead of the surface cold front this evening in southern SD and northern NE. Most CAMs show those storms entering north-central KS around midnight and advancing southeast across the CWA tonight. The overall threat for severe weather still looks fairly limited due to increasing CIN and waning instability. However, a few strong winds gusts could occur, especially early in the event over north-central KS.

Showers and storms exit to the east Friday morning as winds shift to the northwest. The pressure gradient on the back side of a deepening surface low over IA will make for a breezy afternoon, especially in north-central and far northern KS where winds could gust 30 to 35 mph. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s but dew points will stay in the 70s across eastern KS. North winds remain breezy Saturday as the surface low pivots east of the area, but higher pressure will bring in a cooler and drier air mass. Highs should top out in the low 80s and dew points are expected to be about ten degrees cooler than Friday afternoon -- a noticeable improvement!

Looking longer term, conditions stay dry through at least next Tuesday with a lack of any storm systems moving across the central US. High temperatures increase slightly each day beyond Saturday as the surface ridge moderates and moves eastward. Highs will likely be back in the 90s by the middle of next week with humidity also increasing into the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Some brief MVFR ceilings here at KTOP over the last hour are already clearing, so expect VFR conditions to continue through the evening. After midnight, a line of thunderstorms is expected to move southeast across the area. These storms should be weakening over time, but may still produce some gusty winds, especially towards KMHK. Behind the storms, some brief MVFR ceilings are again possible through the morning, but expecting mainly VFR conditions. Winds pick up from the northwest behind a cold front that will arrive 14-16 UTC.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.