textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances (10-20%) for showers or sprinkles continue into Wednesday morning.

- Temperatures remain above-normal through Saturday, trending cooler with chances for precipitation early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Southwesterly mid-level flow resides over the Central Plains this afternoon ahead of a closed low off the California coast. Embedded energy in the mean flow continues to spark spotty showers/sprinkles across the area. A more pronounced wave moves east across Kansas this evening and overnight, with somewhat deeper saturation and the higher chances (20%) for scattered showers. Expect some light rain or sprinkles to continue into Wednesday morning before dry conditions return. The upper ridge moves overhead Wednesday through Friday with increasing southerly low-level winds allowing temperatures to warm into the mid and upper 70s with dry conditions.

Guidance is coming into better agreement in the evolution of the western trough this weekend into early next week. The majority of guidance keeps the main trough farther west through the end of the week, leading to a slower progression of the surface cold front. As such, confidence is increasing in mainly dry and warm conditions through at least Saturday, potentially even Sunday, before a northern stream trough shunts the cold front through the area. Temperature spreads remain large Sunday into next week given differences in frontal positioning and cloud cover/precipitation. Nonetheless, highest precipitation chances come as the front moves through Sunday-Monday with cooler temperatures expected behind the boundary.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions expected. Isolated to scattered showers are possible through much of the period; have included a PROB30 group for the most likely timeframe of -RA to impact terminals. Winds stay under 10kts from the south-southeast through the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.