textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of rain/storms tonight. 40-60% chances for greater than 1 inch of rainfall across much of central and northeastern Kansas. Some areas could see locally higher amounts up to 2 inches.

- Dangerous heat returns by the weekend - especially Sunday and Monday. Air temperatures will approach the upper 90s and low 100s through early next week.

- Heat indices Saturday into Tuesday will top out in the 100-110 degree range each afternoon.

- A brief cool-down and more active weather pattern looks to setup by Wednesday as temperatures fall back closer to average.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

This morning's rain has for the most part come to an end with several areas across central Kansas seeing 1-2.5" of rainfall! Another round is expected later tonight - more on this later. For the remainder of the day today, broken cloud cover will limit much warming as temperatures struggle to exceed the upper 70s. Looking at synoptic features aloft, a large dome of high pressure still dominates the southern Plains with weak shortwave energy rounding the northern axis of the ridge. By this evening and into the overnight hours, the aforementioned shortwave will move into southern Nebraska and north-central Kansas increasing mid-level lift across the area. A strengthening nocturnal LLJ will aid in low-level isentropic lift by midnight tonight as showers and thunderstorms spread across central KS. PWATs ranging from 2-2.25" shows the possibility of very efficient rainfall rates overnight. The main question is where will the main axis of QPF fall through the overnight hours. Guidance has stayed fairly consistent with the best deep layer moisture staying along and north of I-70 and thus, highest confidence in higher rainfall totals stays in this area through Friday morning. Areas south of I-70 will still see rain, but totals may only range from 0.25"-0.75" with isolated pockets of 1 inch totals. Areas along and north of I-70 will have the best chance to see greater than 1 inch of rainfall with isolated areas seeing closer to 2 inches. NBM probabilities of rain totals greater than an inch along and north of I-70 range from 50-80% with probs dropping to 25-50% for totals over 2 inches. Cannot rule out some isolated flooding occurring by Friday morning, especially in areas that saw heavy rainfall last night. Rain lingers across far eastern into the early afternoon Friday that should help keep temperatures on the cool side yet again. Expectation is for areas across central Kansas to clear clouds by the late morning and increase temperatures into the mid to upper 80s by the afternoon whereas areas further east may only top out in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Dangerous heat will be the main headline for the weekend and into early next week as the upper ridge begins to expand north across the central Plains during the day Saturday. Saturday will see highs increase into the low to mid 90s before highs build into the upper 90s and low 100s by Sunday and Monday. Confidence is fairly high for areas Sunday and Monday to see afternoon highs ranging from 95 to 103 degrees given the small ensemble spreads. NBM probabilities for areas across central, north-central and along/south I-70 exceeding 100 degrees Monday are currently sitting around 60-90%. Heat indices each day Saturday through next Tuesday will likely push into the 100- 110 degree range.

Some reprieve in the dangerous heat may come by Wednesday as the upper ridge sinks a bit south and allows mid-level energy/waves to filter into eastern Kansas. This should allow temperatures to fall back closer to average with the increase in cloud cover and low-end precipitation chances. Afternoon high temperature spreads by next weekend currently sit between the mid 80s and low 90s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Showers move out of the terminal within the first few hours of the TAF with mostly dry and VFR conditions through the afternoon and early evening. Showers and storms return to the forecast area and terminals around midnight this evening and likely holding on until the later hours of the morning. Model guidance hints at a MVFR stratus deck moving in behind the rain by Friday morning, so added mention of that for the end of the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.