textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
-Cold front moves through tonight/early Wednesday with increasing northwest winds behind it.
-Much cooler weather is expected for late this week.
-Low chances for rain return this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 139 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
A weak surface boundary sits across the forecast area today. Winds are light and variable area-wide. Temperatures are fairly uniform and still seasonably warm, but dew points are lower across far northern KS, north of the boundary. Water vapor imagery and H5 analysis show a small cyclonic circulation over northern TX and a trough axis over the Northern High Plains, which should quickly traverse the Midwest bringing another, more obvious, cold front through the area late tonight/early Wednesday. Winds will increase out of the northwest behind the front and could gust 20 to 30 mph tomorrow. Above average temperatures tomorrow will transition to much cooler conditions for Thursday and especially by Friday when a surface ridge builds in from the north. Low temps both Friday and Saturday morning will be near freezing. Highs Friday will struggle to reach 50 degrees. A slow warming trend commences this weekend.
Precipitation chances also return this weekend when our next system approaches Saturday night and Sunday. Long range models show a cut- off low pivoting into the Southern Plains on Sunday. There are slight timing differences, but models indicate low level moisture increasing ahead of the system as the sfc low dives southward into central portions of TX. A large sfc ridge over the Upper Midwest could keep drier conditions in eastern KS so uncertainty remains on how far north rain will develop. NBM currently has 20 to 30 percent chances across the area so will maintain those low chances for now and will monitor model trends into midweek.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 437 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light and variable wind becoming gusty out of the northwest after a weak cold front moves through early tomorrow morning. Fog is not favored tonight given a more dry boundary-layer and the front bringing more dry air and stronger wind to the area.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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