textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder continue this afternoon and tonight, but coverage maybe widely scattered to scattered

- Marginal risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday afternoon, ahead of a dryline in central Kansas.

- Temperatures stay slightly above average for the next week, highs in the 80s most days after today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Early this afternoon water vapor satellite imagery along with upper air analysis showed an amplified upper trough across southern NV and central AZ. A down stream upper level ridge was located across the northern high Plains.A southern stream perturbation was located across eastern KS, extending southeast into the lower MS River Valley.

The 18Z surface map showed a lee surface trough extending from southeast MT, southward across the central and southern high Plains. light southeasterly winds were observed across the CWA with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. dew points were in the upper 60 to lower 70s.

Tonight:

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that develop during the afternoon hours will continue into the overnight hours, as the minor mid level perturbations drifts north-northeast across eastern KS. the vertical shear and instability does not look sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Saturday through Sunday night:

The H5 trough across NV/AZ will fill as it lifts northeast across the central Rockies into the central High Plains. The southeast portion of the H5 trough axis will shift northeast across NM into the TX PNHDL. A dryline will push east into far western KS Saturday afternoon. Surface based thunderstorms will develop across west central KS with MLCAPES increasing to 3000 to 4500 J/KG. The CAM solutions that go out this far do forecast the potential for scattered severe thunderstorms developing along the dryline. Any scattered thunderstorms may be severe but the effective shear will be under 30 KTS. So, I'm not sure there will any intense supercell thunderstorms but some of the updrafts could be strong enough for 1 to 2 inch size hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms will congeal into line segments as they move east into the western counties of the CWA, with potential severe wind gusts and larger than quarter size hail. There may be some brief heavy rainfall as PWs will be around 2 inches. However there remains uncertainty where these storms will track and it does not look like any training will occur. These storms will probably weaken as they move east across the central and eastern counties of the CWA during the late evening hours. Another area of elevated thunderstorms may develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning due to warm advection and isentropic lift on the east side of the higher theta-e axis. MUCAPE will be over 2000 J/KG and the primary hazard across northeast and east central KS will be large hail. Highs Saturday will warm into the lower to mid 80s

Sunday, as the H5 trough trough lifts northeast into NE and the upper Midwest, a cold front will push southeast across east central KS where there may be enough surface convergence for isolated storms. MLCAPES may increase over 2500 J/KG and the effective shear may increase. However, the southern stream H5 ridge axis will amplify across the southern Plains, which may provide synoptic scale subsidence. However, if a few isolated storms develop Sunday afternoon and evening, a few of them could be severe with large hail and damaging wind guts. Highs Sunday, even behind the surface boundary, will warm into the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday night through Friday:

The extended range models are in fair agreement with the H5 ridge across the southern Plains amplifying across the central Plains on Monday, then shifting east across the lower and mid MS River Valley. High temperatures on Monday will warm to around 90 degrees. The richer gulf moisture will continue to remain in place, and with a weak cap in place there may be daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The greater chances May occur once the H5 ridge axis shifts east of the Plains, Wednesday through Friday, where minor perturbations may round the H5 ridge axis and provide more ascent for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Highs Tuesday through Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The short-term aviation forecast will be dominated by scattered showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Showers/storms should weaken a bit after sunset before another wave of decaying storms moves in from south-central Kansas. Kept mention of PROB30 at all sites for showers for a few hours this evening before a large swath of showers moves in around sunrise Saturday. Some of these showers may have some isolated thunder in them, but confidence in this was too low to keep mention of thunder. CAMs keep shower activity for much of the morning so opted not to take out the mention. Will continue to monitor short term models and update as confidence changes.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.