textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today with lighter winds today

- Warm and dry conditions return for Tuesday into Thursday bringing continued fire concerns with temperatures well above normal

- Another strong front moves in late in the week with just a small chance for precipitation

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A brief reprieve today from the wind and the anomalous warm temperatures as a cooler airmass continues to settle in from the north. Light northerly winds slowly veer to the southeast through the day with highs in the 50s.

Temperatures are on the rise once again for Tuesday into Wednesday as we go from 70s to 80s as southerly flow returns across the state. Dewpoints remain low however, bringing dry conditions with low RH values. Despite lighter winds, such dry conditions will continue to bring elevated fire weather concerns. The next strong front is progged to race southward across the state on Thursday afternoon or evening, but not before bringing high temperatures well above normal for one more day. A later frontal passage would allow for more locations to hit another day of well above normal high temperatures. Dry conditions and the wind shift with the front will bring another day of fire weather concerns.

Some models indicate the hint of a precipitation chance on Thursday night into Friday, however the low levels remain quite dry and well mixed, and with a lack of a moisture source or better moisture advection think these chances are low. By Friday morning, the probability of more than a tenth of an inch of precip from the NBM is only about 10% at MHK to around 20% at TOP.

Near normal highs for Friday and Saturday behind the front before another warmup for Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Some echoes showing up to our west on radar but believe they are too high based to produce much at the ground. Added a VCSH to Manhattan for this morning. Otherwise added a tempo gust group for late afternoon. Conditions VFR through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Updated at 112 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The persistent lack of moisture coupled with a dry air mass and high temperatures running 10-30 degrees above normal - along with periodic strong fronts - make this week a volatile one for fire weather. Tuesday and Wednesday bring deceptively lighter winds but the low RH is likely to exacerbate fire behavior, and very warm highs on Thursday with increasing winds before a strong cold front will likely make this the most critical fire day this week. Low chances for precipitation Friday but guidance showing wetting rainfall is not likely this week.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.