textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant conditions continue today with temperatures gradually warming the next couple of days.

- Rain chances increase mainly during the evening and overnight hours Tuesday night through Thursday night.

- Hot and humid conditions return next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

An axis of surface high pressure sits in our area, which is in between two low pressure systems - one driven by an upper trough moving through the Ohio River Valley region and another driven by an upper trough swinging out of Alberta into Saskatchewan. Ridging remains dominant over the southwest portion of the CONUS, edging into the Central and Southern Plains. This has led to another day of pleasant temperatures and relatively low dew points, alongside light winds. We are on track to reach highs in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. With the surface high passing east tonight into Monday, perhaps eastern KS could see some patchy fog redevelop in low-lying spots, but even so this would be pretty shallow.

Heading into Monday, we return to low-level southerly flow as a lee trough deepens in response to a shortwave digging across the Northern Rockies. This along with increasing mid-level heights will allow temperatures to rise each day Monday and Tuesday, bringing highs to the upper 80s to low 90s. There is an outside chance that scattered thunderstorms in western KS Monday night could graze our counties in north central KS during the predawn hours Tuesday if they make it that far, but that probability appears low at this time. Better rain chances come to northern KS late Tuesday night as the upper ridge flattens thanks to the northern shortwave, and the inverted sfc trough axis makes its way into the area. Ensemble temperature ranges widen by Wednesday, particularly near the I-70 corridor as highs will largely depend on where exactly the frontal boundary sets up. In any case there looks to be around a 10-15 degree temperature gradient from north to south across the area. The frontal position will also likely influence where the best storm chances will be Wednesday evening/night. Instability and shear would suggest that some strong to severe storms may be possible. By Thursday, the front looks to be south of the area, limiting high temperatures to the 80s. There still may be enough shortwave energy rounding the northeast periphery of the ridge to support another round of storms Thursday night, although we'll need to get through the previous round before we really get a handle on how this one will evolve.

By next weekend, mid-level heights are progged to increase again with the ridge moving back into the area. This favors a warming trend leading to hot and humid conditions once again with highs forecast to reach the low to mid 90s. LREF probs for reaching heat advisory criteria are low at this time (10% or less), although they do indicate a 30-50% probability of heat indices reaching 100 degrees on Saturday with a slightly higher chance on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Some diurnal cu has developed and expect that to continue for the first few hours of the period. VFR is forecast overall with light northerly winds turning to the southeast and south by Monday morning.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.