textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Temperatures gradually rise the next few days and return to above average by mid-week.
- Low chances for rain return late next week, with dry weather expected otherwise.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Confidence is high in the overall pattern: cool, dry, and sunny this weekend, then progressively warmer and still mostly dry through midweek, with only low-confidence, low-probability showers late in the week. The main forecast uncertainties lie in the exact magnitude of radiational cooling Sunday morning (and thus frost coverage in borderline areas), and the timing and extent of any late-week precipitation as the next trough approaches.
The widespread freeze last night will effectively end the growing season for sensitive vegetation across much of the area. The cold surface high is forecast to shift off to the east today and allow for southerly warm-air advection to begin. Enough warmer southerly flow is favored tonight to keep temperatures above freezing across the area. Some of the river valleys may see some temperatures in the mid 30s and potentially some patchy frost.
The bulk of the warming trend occurs Sunday through midweek as stronger mid-level ridging builds over the Plains. Highs are forecast to reach the 60s Sunday and Monday, then the 70s Tuesday, and Wednesday and potentially the 80s Thursday and Friday, with overnight lows moderating into the upper 40s to upper 50s. These values represent a return to above- normal temperatures by midweek, given climatological normals in the 60s/40s for mid-October in northeast Kansas.
Precipitation chances remain very low through at least Wednesday. A deeper western trough approaches late next week, but with timing and details are still uncertain.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
VFR TAFs persist through the period at all terminals. South/southwest winds increase by late Sunday morning, gusting upwards of 25 mph through the afternoon.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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