textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Cool this weekend with only a small (less than 30%) chance for light rain in western and southern locations Saturday night into Sunday.
- Warming next week with rain chances area-wide in the late week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 134 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Recent water vapor imagery shows amplified flow aloft with upper ridge over the High Plains and upper troughing along the West Coast and Ohio Valley with Canadian high pressure ridge at the surface over the Missouri/Mississippi Valley resulting in a cool and dry lower and middle troposphere. This pattern only slowly changes through early Sunday, with the main difference being upper level energy making its way east from southern California into the Four Corners region Saturday and east-southeast while weakening Sunday. Precipitation from this energy remains focused well to the south but there remains a small chance for very light precipitation to graze portions of north-central, central, and east-central Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday. Expect any precipitation to fall as rain with wetter solutions of the model suite also on the warmer side of the envelope.
Next week the pattern shifts to a broad southwest flow regime as upper troughing to the east moves off. Precipitation chances return around Thursday when shortwave energy may move into the region as low-level flow brings warmer and more moist air into the area. Any precipitation looks to stay as showers with no significant cold air intrusions in play.
Temperatures will be cool this weekend into Monday, initially thanks to the Canadian high pressure but also with cloud associated with the southern wave this weekend. Southerly flow kicks in Monday but there are some suggestions of stratus accompanying it. Warmer temperatures should dominate the bulk of next week barring persistent daytime precipitation.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 527 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
VFR conditions are forecast. Light winds turn from the northeast this evening around to the southeast Saturday morning while high clouds increase.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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