textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

Thunderstorm chances increase Saturday afternoon, with the most widespread storms and heavy rain potential Saturday night into Sunday. Strong to severe storms and flooding will be possible.

Shower and storm chances gradually diminish Sunday night into Monday as the front shifts east

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

High pressure at the surface and relatively weak flow aloft will lead to a dry and calm night tonight and day tomorrow. By tomorrow evening, southerly surface flow strengthens, allowing modest moisture return. This moisture return, combined with an increasing low-level jet and a weak mid-level wave may produce some showers and isolated thunderstorms.

The pattern becomes more active over the weekend as a surface low deepens and pushes into the central Plains. Models continue to highlight the central Plains for a period of heavy rainfall and strong/severe thunderstorm potential Saturday into Sunday as deep moisture and instability pool along and south of a cold front. On Saturday, most of the daylight hours still appear largely dry, with highs in the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies and increasing humidity. A cap may be in place most of the day, limiting convective development until the main front moves through in the evening, but should the cap be overcome, isolated strong to severe storms would be possible Saturday afternoon with several thousand joules of CAPE and ~50 knots of bulk shear. Convective development is expected to ramp up significantly Saturday night as the main upper-level wave moves in and a low-level jet develops. Forecast soundings suggest ample instability and sufficient shear for an organized cluster of storms and notably, very heavy rainfall with PWATs above the daily max for this time of the year. There is a growing concern for flooding with model guidance consistently depicting over two inches of rain across most the area and northern Kansas potentially seeing several inches more than that. WPC has outlined a portion of central and northern Kansas in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall. Severe weather potential will overlap with the heavy rain threat, particularly early in the convective cycle Saturday evening when storms are more discrete, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards. As storms grow upscale into clusters or an MCS overnight, the threat may transition more toward strong winds and heavy rain.

By Sunday, the front gradually shifts east while showers and storms may persist behind the front as another fast-moving mid-level wave moves out of Nebraska. Surface high pressure moves in for Monday, bringing an end to rain temporarily, but with westerly flow aloft favored to continue, additional rounds of rain are possible next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions expected. Light winds and clearing skies overnight could lead to patchy fog development before sunrise Friday, especially at KTOP. Confidence is too low to include in TAF. Winds become southeasterly Friday morning, but remain light.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.