textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmest day of the week comes Wednesday before another cold shot of air enters Thursday and into the weekend.

- Slight chances for light snow return Thursday and Friday as well as Saturday night, but confidence is low in any accumulation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Another quiet and chilly afternoon is underway today as surface ridging settles in from the north. Other than some high cloud cover moving in from the west, ample solar insolation has pushed temperatures into the mid to upper 20s across the area. Safe to expect temperatures to warm a few degrees further this afternoon with some across southern areas of the CWA topping out around freezing. The 'warm' weather continues into Wednesday as weak lobes of vorticity advect over the central Rockies, deepening a lee cyclone over eastern Colorado. Pressure gradients gradually tighten in response during the day Wednesday, returning winds back to the southwest and promoting modest WAA by the afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures Wednesday under the WAA regime and ample sunshine should top out in the mid to upper 30s, possibly some low 40s across north-central KS.

The warmer air does not last long as the lee cyclone that has deepened across eastern Colorado ejects southeast into the panhandle of Oklahoma in response to a compact shortwave pushing into the central Rockies. Cold air filters in on the north side of this surface low through the day Thursday, dropping high temperatures back into the 20s. Some weak low-level lift may become realized as the 850mb low passes through central KS Thursday morning that could squeeze out some flurries/snow, but with forecast soundings depicting very dry 850-700mb air, opted to keep PoPs low. Profiles do not saturate in the low to mid levels until later Thursday afternoon and into Friday morning as a secondary wave in the northwesterly flow ejects into the central Plains. The passage of the second wave may provide enough lift to squeeze out some light snow showers across far northern Kansas, but overall confidence remains low in anything widespread at this time, thus, continued with small area of 15-25% PoPs Thursday night into Friday morning.

CAA continues for Friday and Saturday as highs top out in the upper teens both afternoon with lows Saturday morning dropping back below 0 degrees. Windchills Saturday morning may approach -10 to -15 degrees so will need to monitor for the need of any Cold Weather Advisory headlines. Another wave passes over the region Saturday night that could again yield some snow showers across the area. PoPs at this time remain in the 20-30% range as long range ensemble guidance depicts a 30-50% chance of northeast Kansas seeing measurable snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1112 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR TAFs are expected to continue as surface ridging persists over the region. Winds will generally remain under 10 mph becoming light overnight then flipping towards the southwest by the end of the TAF. Cannot rule out some very shallow fog around sunrise Wednesday morning, but confidence is very low in formation at this time, so kept out mention.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.