textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmth returns today and Monday with storm chances Monday.

- Some storms Monday PM could become strong to marginally severe with hail up to 1-1.25" and winds to 60 mph.

- Cooler through the week with a drying trend after the front passes through - potentially warming into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows two advancing upper level systems approaching the central US; one over the northern Rockies and another spinning over the SoCAL/Baja region. Increasing mid-level heights will take place throughout the day today as the weak northern wave pushes into Nebraska. This should further deepen a surface low and trough axis from west-central Kansas through east- central Nebraska. Tightened pressure gradients downstream of the these surface features will lead to efficient diurnal mixing and downsloping low level flow, pushing afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 80s - slightly cooler across northern KS where the frontal boundary moves through by mid-day. Amidst the WAA pattern, moisture advection should lead to some modest instability across far eastern Kansas by peak heating hours that could help to develop convection along the frontal boundary. That said, a stout EML will likely keep convection at a minimum across eastern Kansas with better chances for storms further east across Missouri.

Better storm chances will exist Monday evening as mid to upper 50 degree Tds advect into east-central Kansas. A secondary lee cyclone should deepen across western Kansas by the mid to late afternoon with a surface trough extending into eastern Iowa. As mid-level energy ejecting off the central Rockies and a northern cyclone pushes the surface features south and east into the evening, scattered convection will become possible along a the frontal boundary, likely bisecting the CWA. With MUCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and effective shear nearing 30-40 knots, cannot rule out some stronger to marginally severe storms developing Monday evening. Main threats with storms should stay as hail up to 1-1.25" and wind gusts to 60 mph.

The frontal boundary will push south into Oklahoma through Tuesday leaving northeast Kansas on the cool side of the boundary. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will only top out in the mid 50s to low 60s. Continued mid-level energy advection into the region from the cyclone over the southwestern US will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. Luckily, with the area well north of appreciable instability, severe weather will not be expected. Low-level flow returns from the south by Thursday, helping to return warmer air to the region, likely continuing into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR through the period. A weak frontal boundary stalls along and just south of the terminals this evening with surface winds relaxing into the overnight. SCT-BKN mid-level clouds expected overnight. LLWS conditions develop generally after midnight and persist into mid-morning before ending as the LLJ weakens and shifts east.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.