textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather persists through the upcoming week, allowing time for saturated ground to dry out and rivers to recede.

- Some patchy fog is possible overnight into Saturday morning.

- Temperatures look near average through early next week, then warm slightly into the low 80s mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Broad cyclonic flow covers the northern tier of the CONUS with the upper trough axis pushing well east of the area into the Ohio River Valley, while a ridge is taking shape over southern CA. At the surface, high pressure is centered in the Upper Midwest with dry air advection leading to dew points in the 30s and 40s alongside plenty of sunshine helping us reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. This is a bit warmer and drier than previously forecast, and as such decided to increase temperatures a few degrees for Saturday, closer to the ensemble mean rather than on the cooler end of guidance. In the meantime, as the sfc ridge axis moves across the area tonight into early Saturday, we should continue to see clear skies with light winds. This along with wet soils from the recent rainfall would point to at least some potential for fog, and RAP/HRRR forecast soundings around the area show a shallow sfc layer indicative of that for a few hours around sunrise. However, the position of the sfc high would also favor continued dry air advection and perhaps this is why guidance isn't overly excited about fog. SREF probabilities are rather low, and the signal from HREF and REFS points toward more patchy fog which makes sense for the valleys that can get cooler. Given the fact our dew points are lower this afternoon, that would mean lower crossover temperatures as well. So while some patchy fog is within the realm of possibility, current thinking is that it looks more confined to low- lying spots like river valleys.

The upper ridge to our west builds over the weekend into early next week, leading to northwest flow aloft in our area. While ensemble clusters have small differences in the strength of that ridge, they are in agreement on this general pattern holding with perhaps some flattening of the ridge by the end of the week. No notable sources of lift are noted between now and the end of the forecast period, so a dry pattern should give us a welcome break from the rainy last few days. After a crisp Saturday morning starting out in the 40s, near average temperatures prevail through Monday with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 50s. We warm up slightly for the back half of next week as highs reach the 80s for some.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions expected. Chances for fog remain too low to include as elevated winds just above the surface should largely preclude fog development. Winds remain light through the period, from the east-northeast this evening and overnight before becoming south-southeasterly after sunrise Saturday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.