textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-There is a low chance (20-30%) for a light wintry mix of freezing drizzle and snow Tuesday morning across northeast and east central Kansas and Tuesday night across north central Kansas.

-Temperatures warm nicely for the end of the workweek and upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The main challenge for this forecast package is the chance for light wintry precipitation Tuesday morning into midday (round 1) and again Tuesday night/early Wednesday (round 2). Confidence is somewhat low on whether flurries/light snow or freezing drizzle will be the main p-type with any precip that impacts the area during both timeframes. Each round could occur in response to weak waves moving over the area within the northwest flow aloft.

Round 1 (Tuesday) is more likely to impact far northeast and east- central KS. Forecast soundings from the RAP and HRRR show some low level lift and saturation through the first 4kft to 5kft of the atmosphere, but drier air extending through the DGZ. This would indicate that freezing drizzle would be favored p-type, but have kept mention of light snow and freezing drizzle for now until confidence increases on one dominant type. Temps are expected to warm to just above freezing at the sfc late in the morning and midday, but if precip occurs prior to this timeframe, slick spots could result.

For round 2 (Tue night/early Wed), the area impacted by light wintry precipitation is more likely to be further west across central and north-central KS. Recent trends from forecast soundings show more saturation through the DGZ and am thinking p-type might be more flurries or light snow. Still, however, have kept a mention of some freezing drizzle initially as the column works to saturate. Either way, the main message is to watch out for any form of frozen precipitation. Freezing drizzle can quickly cause slick road and walk ways and often catches people off guard as a glaze of ice can be difficult to see on roads.

Beyond midweek, confidence remains high on warmer weather returning to the area with upper level ridging building out west. Spread from the NBM is low on Thursday with the 25th to 75th percentile only ranging from 54F to 58F. While remaining warm, the spread on temperatures increases into the weekend with the 75th percentile well into the 60s. Have not yet adjusted the NBM forecast at that range, which sticks closer to the lower end of the spread, keeping highs in the low to mid 50s through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the overnight hours. There is a low potential for fog again, but elevated winds just off the surface are expected to largely preclude development. MVFR cigs build towards terminals Tuesday morning, but how fast these cigs move in is uncertain. Have input a best guess timing, but MVFR cigs could move in a bit faster (12-14z) or a bit slower (16-18z). There is a very low chance for some flurries or freezing drizzle at KTOP/KFOE between 17-20z, but chances are too low to mention in TAF.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.