textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm today. Turning breezy tonight behind cold front.

- Up and down temperatures through Friday, then colder for the weekend.

- No notable precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning shows our persistent eastern trough western ridge still in place. The pattern is shifted a bit east compared to much of the last week, as a potent jet streak moves onto the Pacific Northwest coast. As the aforementioned jet streak quickly moves towards the Plains today, the first in a series of Alberta clippers will move southeast from Alberta (as the name suggests) towards the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Strong WAA and downsloping 850-700 mb winds will help temperatures warm to near 60 today, a stark change compared to the past two weeks. As the clipper passes by to our north tonight though, it will push a sharp cold front southward through the area. The core of the cold will stay to our north, but will give us enough of a glancing blow to keep temperatures in the 40s. Also can't completely rule out a brief sprinkle right along the front, given strong low-level ascent. A perhaps more notable impact will be gusty northwest winds behind the cold front. Gusts 30-40 mph will be common late tonight into tomorrow morning, and could flirt with wind advisory criteria towards the Nebraska border.

Northwest flow persists across the Plains through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The strong upper jet will be indicative of the strong baroclinicity across the region, with very cold temperatures to our northeast and very warm temperatures to our southwest. Temperatures have trended slightly warmer each day, as the overall pattern has trended slightly more zonal and less amplified. Still, we should see a shot of colder air for the weekend, with a day or two of temperatures near/below freezing. Similar to today's system, within the strong jet we'll see a few more Alberta Clippers passing to our north. Can't rule out brief flurries with any related frontal passage, but overall the pattern supports continued dry conditions. Beyond the weekend, there are initial hints of ridging building back in over the Plains. Remains to be seen the exact strength and location of this ridge, but it should at least bring somewhat warmer temperatures for early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Main impact for this TAF period is a strong cold front that will move through late this evening. Southwest winds increase to 10-15 kts during the day, then switch to the northwest at around 15 kts behind the front with gusts 25-30 kts. Expecting VFR conditions to persist, with any lower stratus behind the front staying to the northeast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.