textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatres continue today and Thursday before temperatures approach triple digits by the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered storms will be possible Thursday afternoon (20-40%), mainly across far east and east-central KS.

- The dome of heat continues into Monday of next week as more seasonable temperatures and precipitation chances build in for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Subtle changes to the large upper-level ridge has taken shape over the past 24 hours as a weak mid-level cyclone has become rooted across the southern Plains and southeastern US. While the large upper ridge continues to dominate the weather across the northern Plains, mid-level vorticity advection into the southern Plains today and Thursday will help to provide this week's only chances for rain/storms across eastern Kansas. Until then, expect seasonable summer conditions to persist this afternoon and again Thursday with highs topping out around 90 degrees. With the surface ridge still in place over Iowa and easterly flow across the area, some patchy fog may continue to develop through sunrise this morning across eastern Kansas. Fog should mainly stay in the river valleys and other low- lying areas and burn off shortly after sunrise. Later this afternoon, a subtle increase in mid-level lift may exist as vorticity advects into Oklahoma from the southeastern US. This could help to generate an isolated shower or two across far southern portions of the area, but chances for this remain below 20%. The better chances for rain/thunderstorms comes Thursday afternoon with a better northward push of mid-level energy from the stalled low over the southern Plains. This paired with weak instability Thursday afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms will be possible. Highest confidence for showers/storms will stay across far eastern Kansas where better lift will reside.

Lift will push out of the area Friday and with that, precipitation chances. Southerly low-level flow will become commonplace by Friday and through the weekend as the upper-level ridge axis moves overtop of the central Plains. Mixdown of very warm 850mb temperatures Friday through Monday will push temperatures into the upper 90s with possibly some areas seeing triple digits by Sunday and Monday. NBM 25th to 25th spreads for afternoon high temperatures Sunday and Monday currently sit between 95 and 105 degrees respectively. After Monday, the upper ridge looks to slowly break down as weak waves moving out of Canada push the ridge west. This should open the door for a more active pattern and temperatures returning closer to average through next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Outside of some shallow ground fog that may impact KTOP through sunrise, VFR TAFs persist as surface ridging dominates the region.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.