textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and a few storms today. Elevated heat indices possible around central Kansas.

- Small risk for severe winds from thunderstorms late tonight.

- Not as hot with dry conditions this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Very moist mid-level and boundary layer airmass remains in place in modest northwest upper flow. A weak wave moving into central Kansas overnight with a weak low-level jet should continue to spark showers and a few thunderstorms into the post-sunrise with some potential for an MCV over far southeast Colorado to keep precipitation going well into the afternoon, as supported by recent HRRR runs. Precipitable water values in the 2 to 2.25-inch range will support the potential for locally heavy rain despite high cloud bases. If the precipitation lingers, temperatures may only reach the 80s again today, though mid 90-degree readings were not far to the south and southwest Wednesday. A faster end could see these later temps materialize in central and adjacent north-central Kansas, with dewpoints in the mid 70s quite possible (augmented by more rain today) and bring heat indices to near 105. Confidence in the coverage, persistence, and occurrence of this heat is too low for an Advisory.

A stronger wave continues to look to push southeast through the northern Plains late today into tonight, with associated thunderstorms likely to erupt in north-central Nebraska. These storms may retain some strength as the enter the area after midnight in decent effective shear and MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg for a small downburst wind risk this far southeast. The cold front and upper trough axis move through by mid-afternoon Friday but an isolated storm or two could form before it moves out. Temperatures should be somewhat cooler but heat indices around 100 look possible in east- central Kansas.

A notably-drier and cooler airmass works in for the weekend on meridional upper flow with some modification into the mid-week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Mainly high-based VFR showers continue for a least a few more hours but some chance for TSRA and even some MVFR stratus linger at TOP and FOE. Have left dry start time the same though upstream gravity wave and MCV give some uncertainty. Went ahead with PROB30 for TSRA late give decent confidence.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.