textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory in place for much of the area today. Afternoon heat indices likely (80% chance) climb into the 104-109 degree range.

- Still hot Monday through Wednesday, but potential for thick high clouds and light showers may limit heat to some degree.

- Rain chances increase Thursday and Friday as a cold front approaches. Exact rain coverage and temperatures will depend on how far south the front gets.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Broad quasi-zonal flow is present across the CONUS this morning. Between slightly above average 500 mb heights to our south and below average heights to our north, the core of the jet to our north is on the stronger side for early August. Several weak perturbations within the jet continue to move through the flow. One of these weak perturbations is moving across the central Plains right now. Isentropic ascent around 600 mb has allowed some widely scattered showers and weak storms to develop from Manhattan to Marysville. These will move eastward across the area through sunrise. Impacts will remain low given the weak and high-based nature of the convection, though with lots of low-level dry air can't completely rule out some brief strong gusts with any decaying storm. Persistent WAA into the afternoon hints that mid-level clouds may hang on a bit longer than guidance suggests, but do think that clouds will clear at some point. Once this does occur, a breezy but hot and humid day is in store. Deeper mixing should support temperatures in the 100s towards central KS, while farther east temperatures will be cooler but dewpoints higher. As a result, have gone with a Heat Advisory for all but a few counties near the Nebraska border, as heat indices in most spots should climb into the mid/upper 100s.

The next few days appear to be a classic "dirty ridge" pattern. Several more weak upper-level perturbations will move across the top of the ridge. Guidance is very consistent in a deep layer of saturation and isentropic ascent above 600 mb, particularly during the daytime hours Monday. Dry, inverted V profiles will be present below this layer. This is suggestive of thick mid/high level clouds with scattered high-based convection. Any precipitation should be quite light (mainly in the form of sprinkles), so the main impact will be for temperatures to be held in check where cloud cover is thickest. In similar past setups, guidance has struggled with boundary layer temperatures, and is typically on the warm end of what actually occurs. So have hedged slightly towards the cool side of guidance for temps/heat indices Monday, and even this may be overdone if high clouds stay thick all afternoon. The signal for persistent mid and high clouds and perhaps a few shower/storms continues Tuesday and Wednesday to a lesser extent. If skies stay mostly clear then temperatures in the mid/upper 90s with heat indices around 105 would be probable. But the potential for continued clouds suggests the heat could be reduced slightly - though still rather warm.

Thursday into Friday, guidance still indicates a stronger shortwave trough dropping southeast across the Great Lakes, pushing a front southward towards Kansas. Some variation remains in how far south the front will get before it stalls out, with the GFS taking it into southeast Kansas, the ECMWF stalling it out around I-70, and most other guidance in between. Exact temperatures and precipitation coverage will be dependent on where it does end up. But regardless, shower and storm chances will increase along and behind the boundary for the second half of the week. Temperatures should range from the 80s north of the front to still in the 90s south of the front.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. LLWS is likely tonight with 40+ knots at around 2,000 ft out of the southwest. Some isolated showers are possible tonight/tomorrow, but confidence is too low at this point to mention anything in the TAF.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020- KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.