textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm temperatures today and Monday including record highs Monday and still above normal through the coming week.

- Elevated fire danger likely for most areas Monday.

- Little if any precipitation expected until perhaps late in this forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Above normal values of 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures are common from nearly all guidance throughout this forecast. A moderate low-level jet early this morning brings some warm-air advection early today with only some high cloud to contend with to push high temperatures nearly 10 F above those of Saturday. Little cloud cover again Monday with another round of WAA ahead of a cold front pushes 850 mb temperatures around 15 C above normal and around the 99th percentile of ENS and NAEFS climatologies per ESAT. Highs in the lower to middle 70s should not be hard to come by with decent mixing on southwest breezes with NBM indicating about and 80% chance of record highs. The modified front drops temps back into the 50s Tuesday into late in the week with very modest advections under split upper flow.

A weakening southern branch wave looks to pass farther south from the local area Tuesday into Tuesday night than earlier expectations with NBM PoPs now nearly below mentionable levels. Broad upper ridging takes over for a few periods before model spreads increase in handling of positively-tilted waves passing through, in some respect, Thursday into Saturday. Cluster analysis indicates little agreement with the specifics at this range and NBM PoPs seem a bit aggressive especially Friday night and Saturday. Any precipitation should be in rain form given the above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. LLJ of 40 KTS was from the west-southwest across the terminals. Given light winds at the surface, expect low-level wind shear of 30 to 35 KTS at the terminals until 10Z at MHK and 12Z at TOP and FOE. Surface winds will switch to the northwest after 15Z SUN but remain under 10 KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Fire weather conditions Monday continue to look more concerning as this period approaches. Record highs are quite likely though humidity and wind specifics are somewhat in question. Based on model soundings, have increased winds and lowered dewpoints which brings minimum RH values into the 20s and gusts of 20-25 mph. Red Flag conditions look unlikely but can't be ruled out. A cold front passing Monday night will shift winds from the southwest to the north to northeast with similar speeds.

CLIMATE

Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Record High Temperatures for February 9

Forecast High Record (Year) Topeka 73 72 (1932) Concordia 72 70 (1976, 1996)

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.