textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Heavy rainfall and scattered flooding could occur as a system moves through Today and Tonight.

-Heat then builds in this weekend and sticks around through next week. Afternoon heat indices will reach the 100 to 110 degree range.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A slow-moving frontal zone and deep plume of Gulf moisture remain draped across the central Plains, placing northeast Kansas on the northern edge of a broader heavy rain and thunderstorm corridor extending from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri. Precipitable water values near the climatological max for this time of the year and model QPF support efficient rainfall processes. WPCs Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights a Moderate Risk over southeast Kansas with a broader Slight Risk extending north into portions of eastern Kansas, consistent with widespread 24 inch totals and localized higher amounts where convection trains. Therefore, the Flood Watch continues through early Friday morning.

Through this afternoon and evening, periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue, with the heaviest rain most likely this evening into tonight as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens and focuses convergence along and north of the boundary. High-resolution guidance favors a corridor of heavier QPF southwest and south of the CWA, but embedded heavier cells and short training segments are still plausible across eastern and central Kansas, especially near and south of I 70, where localized flash flooding could develop in low- lying and poor-drainage areas. Confidence is moderate to high in continued heavy rain, but lower in the precise placement of maximum amounts given sensitivity to convective evolution and outflow interactions. The Flood Watch was expanded slightly north as several models over several runs were hinting at a narrow heavier band of rain developing late tonight north of I-70.

Regarding severe potential, guidance keeps the more organized severe threat focused across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and the Ozarks, where a corridor of stronger instability, deep-layer shear, and an intensifying low-level jet are focused. Our area lies on the northern fringe of this environment; widespread stratiform rain and limited surface-based instability should largely temper severe coverage, but a few stronger cores this afternoon and evening could briefly produce marginally severe wind gusts or small hail where mesoscale pockets of instability persist.

By Friday morning, the main heavy rain axis and strongest forcing shift east, with some lighter showers potentially lingering into the late morning across far eastern Kansas. Behind todays system, mid- level ridging and warm advection build into the Plains, with highs rebounding into the upper 80s Saturday and low 90s by Sunday under increasing sunshine, while overnight lows climb into the mid to upper 70s. This is near to slightly above late-June climatological normals (average June highs around the upper 80s and lows in the low 70s).

Into early next week, ensemble and medium-range guidance favor even more hot and humid conditions developing across the central U.S., with highs generally in the mid 90s each day and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, yielding heat indices commonly in the upper 90s to low 100s. A typical summer time diurnal thunderstorm pattern may accompany this heat but confidence in timing and coverage is low and and the primary threat over the next week shifts from flooding to heat stress for outdoor activities and vulnerable populations.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions favored at all terminals through the period with scattered to widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms. There may be occasional breaks in the precipitation overnight, but rain isn't fully expected to exit the area until mid-morning Friday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.