textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and dry this weekend.

- Warming next week and the potential return of rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Early morning observations across northeast and east-central Kansas confirm a cold, dry surface air mass settling across the region as a surface ridge axis shifts eastward toward the Mississippi Valley.

For today, surface high pressure continues sliding east while weak lee troughing develops over the High Plains, causing light easterly surface winds to veer to the southeast at 5 to 10 mph (locally 10 to 15 mph toward Republic and Cloud Counties). Filtered sunshine through passing mid and high-level cloud cover and limited boundary-layer mixing will hold afternoon temperatures below mid-November normals, with highs ranging from the upper 40s along the Nebraska border (Marysville to Hiawatha) to near 50 degrees along the Kansas River Valley (Topeka and Lawrence) and lower 50s toward Emporia.

Tonight through Sunday evening, attention turns to a southern- stream upper-level trough translating eastward across the Southern Plains. Deeper Gulf moisture return and strongest synoptic ascent remain focused well south of the Kansas-Oklahoma border, keeping widespread heavy rainfall confined to Texas and the Gulf Coast. Across northeast Kansas, dry low-level easterly to southeasterly flow will largely limit moisture availability, resulting in mostly cloudy skies tonight and slightly milder lows in the upper 20s northeast to the lower and mid 30s elsewhere. Highs Sunday remain cool in the upper 40s north to lower 50s south.

Early to mid-next week, upper-level ridging builds across the Central Plains behind the departing southern-stream wave while surface high pressure anchors over the southeastern CONUS. Persistent southerly low-level return flow promotes steady warm air advection across Kansas under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Afternoon highs moderate into the lower to mid 50s Monday, upper 50s Tuesday, and upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday, while overnight lows climb from near freezing Sunday night into the lower 40s by Tuesday night.

By late next week, the next upper-level trough approaches from the western CONUS, bringing the next area-wide chance for rain showers across the area. Current official forecasts carry broad, low-end shower chances from Wednesday night through Thursday night alongside mild temperatureshighs near 60 to the lower 60s Thursday and overnight lows in the 40s to near 50before drier and cooler post- frontal air begins filtering into the region by Friday. Uncertainty remains elevated through this period regarding trough timing, amplitude, and the degree of low-level moisture return ahead of the system.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 454 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light southeasterly wind developing later this morning. Some very low, patchy fog has developed at KTOP early this morning. It should be short-lived and dissipate as soon as the sun comes up.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.