textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southerly winds develop Tuesday and Wednesday, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph (strongest across north-central Kansas) driving a warming trend into the low to mid 60s.

- Rain chances return Thursday night through Saturday, though system timing and rainfall amounts remain uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Surface high pressure extending across the mid-Missouri Valley and persistent dry easterly to southeasterly low-level flow continue to anchor a quiet, seasonably cool air mass across the area early this morning. To the southwest, an upper-level disturbance and associated surface troughing across Texas and the southern Plains remain well removed from our forecast area, keeping deep moisture transport and precipitation south and west of the Kansas border today.

Mid and high-level cloud cover streaming north of the southern Plains system will gradually thin and clear from north to south through the mid-morning and afternoon. With weak easterly to southeasterly surface winds around 5 to 10 mph and clearing sky, afternoon highs today will reach the lower to mid 50s. Under clear skies and calm to light southeasterly winds tonight, efficient radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to drop to near or just below freezing.

A pattern transition begins Monday as upper-level ridging builds eastward across the central CONUS and surface high pressure shifts into the Ohio Valley. Light southerly return flow develops Monday morning, increasing to 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 to 25 mph across north-central Kansas (including Republic, Cloud, and Ottawa counties) by afternoon. Abundant sunshine and weak warm air advection will push Monday highs into the mid to upper 50s, followed by milder overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Monday night.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, amplified upper-level troughing moving into the western U.S. will induce stronger lee cyclogenesis across the High Plains. The resulting tightened surface pressure gradient across Kansas will generate breezy southerly winds across the entire area. Sustained south winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected Tuesday and Wednesday across north-central Kansas, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph extending east across the Flint Hills and northeast Kansas. This persistent warm advection will lift daytime highs into the lower 60s Tuesday, and into the mid 60s Wednesday, while overnight lows moderate into the mid to upper 40s. Despite the gusty winds, gradually recovering boundary-layer moisture should keep fire weather concerns below critical thresholds, though cured fine fuels will warrant monitoring across north-central Kansas where winds will be strongest.

Forecast spread increases late in the week as the western U.S. trough ejects across the Rockies and into the Plains between Thursday and Saturday. Ahead of this system, Thursday remains dry and mild with highs in the low to mid 60s. As large-scale ascent and gulf moisture return overspread eastern Kansas ahead of an approaching cold front, rain chances return Thursday night (around 20 percent) and increase to 40 to 70 percent Friday into Friday night, lingering into Saturday (around 50 percent). Because guidance varies on the amplification and forward speed of the ejecting wave, as well as whether a secondary wave tracks across the central Plains, confidence in exact frontal timing, rainfall totals, and potential post-frontal cooling by next weekend remain low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 439 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light east southeast wind less than 10 knots and scattered to broken high clouds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.