textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler Temperatures expected late this week into early next week.

- Periods of rain will be likely (60-80%) Thursday night into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Early this afternoon a longer wave-length upper trough was located across the western US. A short-wave upper trough has ejected northeast across the Plains and was located across SD, with an upper trough axis extending south-southeast across western IA into northern central MO and AR. A Pacific front/dryline has moved east across central MO. A cold front was moving east across northeast and east central KS. Behind the front, stratocu were forming and we may see a period of broken sky cover later this afternoon, which should clear up close to sunset. Winds behind the front were from the west-northwest. Ahead of the front temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to around 80 degrees across the southeast counties. Behind the front, temperatures were in the mid 50s to around 60s degrees.

Tonight through Wednesday:

The H5 trough across the western US will shift east across the central Rockies and will phase with a northern stream H5 trough digging southeast out of central Canada. As the H5 trough approaches DCVA ahead of the H5 trough will provide enough ascent combined with isentropic lift for periods of light rain to develop from south to north across the CWA during the day on Thursday into Friday morning. Stronger low-level CAA across the northern Plains will cause a cold front to push southward across the CWA on Friday. At this time, the richer Gulf moisture advect will remain southeast and east of the CWA, so the heavy rainfall axis will develop from east TX, northeast across southern MO, into IL Thursday night into Friday.

The LREF shows 24 hour QPF from Thursday night through Friday, across much of the CWA, ranges between 0.2 to 0.4 inches, with the heavier rainfall across the southeast counties of the CWA where up to 0.6" of QPF may accumulate.

The showers and low-level CAA will keep high cooler Friday into Saturday. The showers will end Saturday but northerly winds and cloud cover will keep highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

The H5 trough will move east across the eastern US. Northwest flow will keep dry and cooler conditions across the region. Highs will moderate slowly into the mid to upper 50s on Sunday, with lower to mid 60s on MOnday and Tuesday. Highs will warm into the 70s on Wednesday, as southerly winds return.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Confidence in SHRA late in the period is still too low probability to include in the forecast. Trends do suggest that sufficient saturation may develop generally around or after 00Z to see SHRA develop but uncertain on how widespread. Will continue to refine for the 12Z forecast. Winds remain generally remain around 10kts into the afternoon from the ESE.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.