textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase across areas in central and north-central Kansas this morning and afternoon, slowly spreading into eastern Kansas by Thursday evening and Friday morning.

- Rain and storm chances continue through Saturday morning before ridging builds in bringing drier weather Sunday and Monday.

- More rain chances return Monday night through Wednesday as a frontal boundary passes through Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a large swath of moisture streaming into the central Plains all the way from Baja California. This is mainly in response to the deepening trough over the desert southwest where heavy rain has lead to many flooding events in the past 24 hours. Over the next few days, the shortwave trough across the southwest will slowly ride over the synoptic ridge that remains parked over the ArkLaTex region. Continuous PVA into central Kansas and then into eastern Kansas will give way to enough lift to support widespread rain (and some weak thunderstorms) chances into Saturday morning. Through today, majority of the synoptic lift will remain concentrated across western and central Kansas. This should keep best rain chances there for much of the day today. With ample cloud cover and precipitation chances, temperatures will not warm much, mainly staying in the low to mid 70s. Upper level lift shifts east late tonight into Friday morning as the western trough pushes the upper ridge over the southern US towards the Gulf. Scattered chances for showers will continue across the area for much of Friday morning and early afternoon until later in the evening when the main shortwave trough axis pushes northeast across Kansas. Isentropic ascent across eastern Kansas will increase in response to the deepening surface trough with widespread showers expected Friday evening into early morning Saturday. With PWATs Friday evening ranging between 1.5-2", heavy rainfall, especially areas that see training of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms, could lead to localized flooding across eastern Kansas.

Rain chances decrease west to east through the day Saturday as mid- level subsidence begins to move in from the west. This should usher in a mostly dry period Sunday and Monday with temperatures increasing slightly, topping out in the upper 70s and low 80s. Long range guidance has decent agreement in a stout longwave trough digging south out of the PNW by Tuesday and Wednesday that will usher in our next chance of precipitation and cooler temperatures. Guidance is still in a bit of disagreement with how it evolves and propagates the upper system across the central US for late next week so temperature spreads remain high and PoPs remain low confidence.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions are forecast. Main challenge this period is the timing of showers and any embedded thunderstorms. Think the coverage of TS will be too low to justify mentioning that during any specific time window, so opted to leave that out of TAFs for now. Overall scattered showers increase from west to east tonight into Friday morning, and although it won't be a continuous rain for the entire back half of the period, the probabilities are high enough to warrant at least a vicinity mention through the morning hours.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.