textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light band of snow moves across area this evening. Little to no accumulation for most, but isolated spots could see up to around 1/2".

- Notably warmer Sunday. Temperatures then stay near to above average through the next week.

- Dry pattern persists. Only a low-end (10-20%) chance for light precipitation Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a very amplified pattern across the CONUS. An unusually deep upper low over the Southeast is supporting the current snowstorm over the Carolinas, while strong upper ridging is present over the West Coast. In the middle, fast northwest flow is in place across the Plains. A compact shortwave within this flow is currently dropping southeast across the Northern Plains.

Ahead of this system, a north/south axis of mid-level frontogenesis is supporting a progressive band of light snow from the Dakotas down into north-central Kansas. This will quickly shift southeast across the area this evening. The narrow and fast-moving nature of the band, coupled with widespread low-level dry air, means most places will see little to no snow accumulation. Though with decent lift within the DGZ, it's not out of the question some localized spots can pick up a quick half inch or so, enough to cause a few slick spots on area roadways. This looks to be most likely closer to the Nebraska border, where most model guidance has slightly better mid- level frontogenesis and vertical motion.

In the wake of tonight's system, upper ridging to our west will expand eastward into the Rockies and High Plains, allowing southerly surface flow to return. As we head into next week, our area will stay underneath northwest flow aloft, maintaining a dry pattern. However compared to the past week, the mean trough axis over the eastern CONUS will stay more to the east. This will keep the core of the cold farther away from us, and help bring occasional bursts of mild, downsloping westerly low-level flow. So our lingering snow cover should steadily melt as highs climb into the mid 40s Sunday and Monday. A weak cold front drops highs back to around 40 Tuesday and Wednesday before a stronger surge of warm air arrives Thursday. Can't rule out some brief rain or snow showers with a minor vort max Wednesday, but as earlier mentioned this pattern does not support much appreciable precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1037 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Last band in the isentropic lift-forced very light snowfall working southeast out of central and eastern Nebraska appears to be consistently weakening. Will leave any -SN mention out but will need to keep an eye on trends over the next few hours. VFR conditions still expected with veering winds with relatively modest speeds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.