textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The hot and humid conditions persist through the holiday weekend with afternoon heat indices from 100 to 110, peaking between Thursday and Saturday.

- Slight chances for scattered showers and storms return tonight and again Wednesday evening into Thursday morning over portions of north central and northeast Kansas. Severe probabilities are generally low. - The July 4th holiday is looking more unsettled region wide as chances for strong storms are increasing Saturday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Ample high clouds are streaming northeast around the expansive high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley this morning. Cluster of storms in western OK is expected to weaken in the form of mid clouds as they enter central KS later this morning. Scattered sprinkles cannot be ruled out in north central Kansas, but otherwise dry weather ensues for much of the daytime period. Based on previous obs the past few days and trends in short term models of higher afternoon dewpoints, adjustments were made this afternoon through Thursday for readings in the low 70s in the afternoon while high temps are in the low to middle 90s. This should still result in peak heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. Multiple, weak perturbations eject into the western Kansas by this evening, generating potential clusters of storms towards the high plains. Kept the slight chances for storms to enter north central Kansas this evening, however most CAMs weaken convection before they enter the forecast area overnight. Gusty winds would be the main hazard with any updraft.

A similar scenario occurs Wednesday evening with high based storms in western Kansas clustering to produce severe wind gusts before weakening as they enter north central Kansas. Residual cloud cover from these storms could hold highs back by a few degrees Wednesday and Thursday with heat indices in the upper 90s over north central areas. Heat indices near 105 are most likely in far eastern Kansas where lesser cloud cover is anticipated. Mid level heights build westward Friday and Saturday, signaling a higher likelihood for heat indices around 110 degrees in the afternoon (<5 degree spread in the 25th to 75th percentile). Operational guidance and ensembles are becoming more consistent in a northern stream shortwave trough crossing the central plains Saturday evening. While clusters of stronger storms are likely across the region, timing and locations of these storms are still uncertain. This could very well impact outdoor holiday activities so it's important to check back throughout the week for forecast updates. Sunday's storm chances will be highly dependent upon when and where storms form the prior evening.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions prevail. South-southwest winds remain gusty through the period, which should preclude LLWS. Gusts should weaken again around sunset Tuesday evening.

CLIMATE

Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature

June 30 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 77 (1911, 1917, 1931 1933, 1970, 2020) 80 Concordia 79 (2011) 79

July 1 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 82 (1933) 78 Concordia 86 (1933) 76

July 2 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 78 (1925) 77 Concordia 78 (1974) 74

July 3 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 77 Concordia 80 (1934) 74

July 4 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1911, 1969) 77 Concordia 82 (1934) 75

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056- KSZ058-KSZ059.