textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
-Cooler and drier air overspreads the area behind the departing cold front, yielding pleasant conditions through the weekend with lower humidity and seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures.
-Temperatures gradually rise early next week.
-Shower and thunderstorm chances increase by mid-week as another shortwave and associated front approach, but timing, coverage, and any severe potential remain uncertain.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Showers and storms have exited to the south and east, with partly to mostly cloudy sky and northerly winds bringing a gradual drop in dewpoints. Dry conditions today into tonight, along with gusty northwest wind and a noticeable reduction in humidity. Under a building surface ridge, highs through the weekend are expected to run mainly in the low to mid 80s with lows in the 60s, and dew points settling into the mid 60s or lower, yielding more comfortable conditions compared to recent heat and humidity.
From Sunday into early next week, the ridge axis shifts east, allowing low-level southerly flow to slowly reestablish across the central Plains and support a gradual warm-up. Highs should trend toward the upper 80s to low 90s by Monday and Tuesday, with slowly increasing dew points but generally dry conditions persisting.
By mid-week, ensemble and deterministic guidance indicate another shortwave trough translating through the northern and central Plains with a trailing surface front moving through the area, supporting a return of shower and thunderstorm chances. This far out though there remains considerable uncertainty on timing, precipitation amounts and potential strength of storms, but it remains the most likely period over the next seven days of seeing rain.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
MVFR with low stratus over the next few hours. Stratus should scatter out later this afternoon. Some stratus may rebuild into the area overnight, but confidence is too low at this point to bring it into the TAF. Wind will generally be out of the north for the TAF period with occasional gusts of 20-25 knots.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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