textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Fire Danger for most of the area Thursday.

- Warm to end the week and then a return to Winter- like temperatures early next week, with snow showers possible Sunday night into Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Late this morning upper level trough was extended from MN, southward across MO. A southern stream upper trough was located across central and southern TX.

A surface cold front was pushing southward across north TX into southeast OK and central AR. Low-level CAA continued across the Plains. Temperatures at 11 AM were only in the mid to upper 30s across the CWA.

Today through Saturday:

A surface ridge of high pressure will build southeast across KS into the southern Plains Tonight. If we keep the cloud cover through the afternoon hours, then afternoon highs will only reach the lower 40s, if there is clearing across the western counties, high could reach the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. The brisk northwest winds will make it even feel colder.

Thursday, the northwesterly upper flow will veer to the west- northwest. The mid level flow over the central Rockies will cause a lee surface trough to deepen across eastern CO and western KS. The surface ridge axis will shift southeast across the LA. The tight pressure gradient and deeper mixing will cause south-southwest surface winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30 to 40 MPH. This will be just below a wind advisory criteria, so at this time, I will not issue a wind advisory for the CWA. Highs will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s across east central KS with mid to upper 60s across the western half of the CWA.

Thursday night, an H5 trough will dig southeast out of central Canada into northern MI. This will cause a surface front to push southward across the Plains and through the CWA. The front will pass dry as there will be no residual moisture return.

Friday, will be cooler as the front will stall out across northern OK. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s across the northern counties and upper 50s to around 60 degrees from I-70 and southward across the CWA.

Saturday, the upper flow will become more zonal on Saturday and low- level WAA will help high temperatures to warm into the mid 60s north to around 70 degrees.

Extended forecast:

Saturday night through Monday, an H5 trough will dig southeast from western Canada across the northern and central Plains bringing a strong cold front southeast across the area. The stronger ascent ahead of the H5 will remain north and northeast of the CWA but cold air advection and weak ascent will cause a chance for rain showers Saturday night into Sunday. The rain showers will change to snow showers Sunday night into Monday morning. At this time we are only expecting a trace to a dusting of snowfall. Highs on Saturday will be set in the morning in the 50s across east central KS and 40s across north central KS. Temperatures will be slowly falling through the afternoon hours. Highs on Monday will only reach the mid 30s north to lower 40s south.

Tuesday through Wednesday, an upper level ridge across the western US will begin to shift east towards the Plains. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 50s east, with lower 60s west. Tuesday even warmer with upper 60s east to mid 70s west.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Expect the MVFR ceilings at the terminals to continue through 20Z, then skies should become scattered. After 20Z, expect VFR conditions through the night. The northwest surface winds of 12 to 15 KTS with gusts to 20 to 30 KTS will diminish towards sunset. Surface winds will become southerly Thursday morning and increase to 15 to 20 KTS with gusts of 25 to 30 KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A red flag warning is in effect for north central, northeast, and portions of east central KS from Noon Thursday through 8 PM Thursday evening.

South-southwesterly winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30 to 40 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours of Thursday. Minimum RHs Thursday afternoon will be in the 18 to 22 percent range across much of the CWA. The southeast counties that received heavier rains Tuesday night may only see RHs of 25 to 30 percent. Fuels will be dormant and dry across the area. The Red Flag Warning will be along and west of a Council Grove, to Topeka, and Oskaloosa line. The areas along and southeast of I-35 will have dewpoints a bit higher, due to saturated ground, of 25 to 30 percent. However, this area will have a very high fire danger. A surface front will move south Thursday night and switch winds to the north but winds will be light, so any wild fires that continue into the night, the shifting winds could make controlling these fires difficult.

All out door burning planned on Thursday needs to be postponed.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.