textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A blustery and much cooler day is in store for today.

- There is increasing confidence in frost with potential freeze conditions late tonight into Saturday morning. Freeze Watch remains in effect across northern portions of the area with a Frost Advisory issued elsewhere.

- Temperatures warm back up into next week with low rain chances returning late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The upper air pattern early this morning shows a trough axis extending from Ontario through the Upper Midwest into KS, a ridge pushing into the PNW, and a weaker low over SoCal and the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. At the surface, low pressure has moved into the Great Lakes region with its cold front extending into the Lower MS River Valley, while high pressure dominates the western half of the CONUS. This puts us firmly within CAA as northwest winds remain breezy. Winds will increase during the daytime hours today as mixing commences, gusting 30-40mph at times while sustained at 15-25mph. Stratus clouds can be seen upstream on satellite with some wrap- around low-level moisture behind the departing system, so between that and the colder air mass, highs are only forecast to top out in the low to mid 50s today.

Skies should clear out mid to late afternoon and winds should diminish by sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes and mixing subsides. With the sfc high moving directly overhead tonight into Saturday morning, this sets the stage for a good radiational cooling scenario. NBM morning lows sit around the 25th percentile of all guidance, which seems reasonable for this setup. Looking at the range of models, still think that the area for the going Freeze Watch pretty well captures where temperatures have at least a 50% chance of reaching or falling just below freezing. In collaborating with neighboring offices, opted to leave the watch in place for now and issue the Frost Advisory elsewhere as those areas are likely to fall to the low to mid 30s.

The colder temperatures look short-lived with a warming trend taking shape the rest of the weekend into next week. The sfc high moves east Saturday afternoon with the upper ridge moving in as the low to our southwest stays cut off. This favors a return to southwest flow in the low levels and eventually aloft, helping temperatures to warm to the upper 50s Saturday and eventually the 60s and 70s early next week. By Wednesday and Thursday, the upper pattern becomes more amplified with a deepening trough on the Pacific coast and the ridge strengthening its hold over the Southern and Central Plains. Some low 80s return to the forecast by that point. Dry weather dominates most of next week with low rain chances returning late Thursday into Friday as the western trough approaches.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Northwest winds will remain breezy through the night with gusts increasing a bit during the late morning through afternoon, peaking around 30 kts during that time frame. Guidance appears to be coming into decent agreement on bringing MVFR cigs into eastern KS during the late morning and early afternoon as well, with lesser confidence towards MHK which is along the edge of the MVFR stratus. This should clear to the east mid to late afternoon, followed by winds decreasing to under 10 kts after sunset.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.