textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly below-normal temperatures today with lingering showers and cloud cover.

- Heat builds this weekend and continues through next week. Afternoon heat indices reach 100 to 110 degrees each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Zonal flow exists across the Central Plains early this morning with a surface boundary stalled across southern Kansas. A strengthening low-level jet has led to increased coverage of showers and storms south of Interstate 70. Deep moisture and modest instability still favors some heavy downpours, especially across east central Kansas along the nose of the aforementioned low-level jet. While widespread flooding issues appear unlikely, think there is still enough concern for isolated flooding to continue the Flood Watch through 7 AM this morning for this area. Farther north, coverage of showers and storms will be more scattered with 00z CAMs and WoFs showing a very low signal for any heavy rainfall and flooding. As a result, have cancelled the Flood Watch for areas along and north of Interstate 70. The heaviest rain will come to an end this morning, although drizzle or light rain may continue into the late morning given continued lift in the low-level cloud deck. Uncertainty exists in how long cloud cover lingers through the day with most guidance holding onto at least a scattered deck of clouds through the day. If clouds hold into tonight, there could be additional showers or drizzle across the area through Saturday morning. If clouds break up and skies are clearer overnight, the potential for fog development increases.

Mid-level ridging builds over the Plains by Saturday, setting the stage for heat and humidity to return into next week. The environment looks to remain capped Saturday afternoon with best ascent northeast of the forecast area, which should preclude convective development. However, the cap does weaken during the afternoon and it is possible (<15% chance) that a storm develops. If a storm develops, the background environment could support severe storms, so this potential will need to be monitored.

The ridge amplifies across the Mississippi Valley Sunday into the middle of next week. Gusty south winds will boost temperatures into the 90s with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s. This will create heat indices in the upper 90s to as hot as 110 degrees each afternoon. NWS Heat Risk reaches the Major category for much of the area Sunday through at least Wednesday and potential until the end of the week. Heat products will likely be needed. Waves of energy on the western periphery of the ridge could spark daily storms across the High Plains which may approach north central Kansas, but chances are low (10-25%) at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

IFR to LIFR cigs to begin the period, along with some reduction of VSBY due to fog/drizzle this morning as well. Conditions slowly improve through the day, although the majority of guidance keeps conditions MVFR for most of the period. Could see a couple hour period of VFR conditions this evening before low cigs look to build back into terminals late this evening and overnight.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.