textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- One more round of rain tonight into tomorrow morning. Additional amounts around or less than an inch for most. Some locally higher totals still possible towards Anderson County, where the Flood Watch remains in effect.

- Much cooler and drier air arrives for Friday and the weekend. Frost/freeze potential Saturday morning across much of the area.

- Trending milder again for early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Last night's convection has shunted the frontal boundary south of the area, with current surface obs placing it along a line from southeast KS into the TX Panhandle. Low stratus is locked in place north of the boundary, keeping temperatures nice and cool in the 50s to low 60s. Weak isentropic ascent is keeping some isolated showers and pockets of drizzle around, but rain coverage should be limited until the upper low begins to approach overnight. The heaviest rain still looks tied to a weak surface wave that will lift northeast across eastern KS. As mentioned yesterday, the extensive convection and heavy rain to our south over Oklahoma is often a setup that leads to a southward trend in QPF guidance. This appears to be such a case. Most guidance now keeps the strongest moisture advection and isentropic ascent - and thus the best chance for an additional 1-3 inches of rain - a bit to our southeast. Will keep Anderson County in the Flood Watch, especially since southern parts of the county saw a radar-estimated 2-3" of rain last night, but have trimmed out the rest of the watch. Elsewhere across the forecast area lesser amounts are expected, though the track of the upper low should still lead to widespread 0.25-0.5" amounts with pockets of slightly above 1". Temperatures tomorrow should rise into the 70s across east- central KS (south of wherever the surface low eventually tracks) but stay in the 60s to upper 50s elsewhere.

The cold front trailing behind the surface low will pass through by Thursday evening, allowing temperatures and dewpoints to quickly drop overnight. Strong high pressure will push southeast across the Plains as a strong northern stream shortwave drops out of Canada and phases with the southern stream upper low. Strong CAA should keep Friday highs in the 50s. By Saturday morning, the high pressure will be nearly overhead. With strong radiational cooling amidst clear skies and light winds, temperatures should fall into the low/mid 30s area wide. The best chance at sub-freezing temperatures looks to be in favored low-lying areas north of Interstate 70. Will likely need Frost/Freeze headlines at some point, though will wait another day or so to figure out exact areas.

After high pressure passes off to our east later Saturday, we'll see a gradual trend back to warmer temperatures as ridging builds back over the central/eastern CONUS. Expecting highs back in the 70s by Monday and Tuesday. Still can't rule out a brief shower sometime Monday with a weak shortwave passing through, but overall rain chances look low through Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Patchy drizzle and light fog will develop through the evening hours and continue over night. An upper level trough will move through during the mid morning and early afternoon hours of THU, providing for periods of light rain. I cannot rule out an elevated thunderstorm but the probability for thunderstorms look to be under 25 percent. Ceilings will drop down to IFR-VLIFR levels through the evening hours and through most of the day tomorrow. A cold front will move across the terminals during the early afternoon hours, switching the winds to the northwest at 11 to 13 KTS, with gusts of 19 to 23 KTS.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ059.