textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-A batch of light to moderate rainfall moves through eastern KS this morning.

-Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday, along with the threat for severe weather.

-Temperatures are warm through the weekend with much cooler weather anticipated behind a late week system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A batch of rain with a few embedded storms in OK and TX will continue to move northward and into eastern Kansas this morning as a mid-level shortwave trough moves over the area. Soundings show some minor amounts of instability, enough to allow for a chance for lightning. However, severe weather is not expected this morning. Flooding is also not anticipated with less than an inch of rain forecast, mainly along and south of I-35. Areas that received heavy rainfall the last few nights will likely only receive light rain this morning. Conditions then become more unstable this afternoon as temperatures warm, but there still isn't an obvious lifting mechanism to get storms going. Thus, have decreased POPs to less than 15 percent for this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, however, if a storm gets going, it could reach severe limits. In that case, the threat would stay very isolated.

Monday will likely also be dry with no apparent waves in the southwest flow aloft. Strong south winds and warming temps aloft will allow highs to warm well into the 80s Monday afternoon. Fire danger may be more of the concern in central KS behind where a dryline sets up. RH behind the dryline could drop to near 20 percent with wind gusts between 20 and 25 mph. Fire headlines for our CWA are not likely given the green up that is occurring.

Thunderstorms return to the forecast on Tuesday as a longer wave trough moves over the CO Rockies and into the High Plains. Storms may form in eastern KS during the afternoon or early evening ahead of a deepening sfc low. Some forecast soundings are showing over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and around 50 kts of deep layer shear in far eastern KS where storms may develop. That environment would be supportive of all modes of severe weather.

The better chance for rain on Wednesday will likely shift into MO as the sfc low moves northeast toward the Great Lakes. A more amplified longwave trough axis will then move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. Long range models show that system progressing quickly into the High Plains by late Friday. Storms could again form near an associated surface boundary at that time, bringing more moisture to the area and much cooler weather for the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Rain will move north and impacts terminals this morning. The most likely timeframe for precipitation onset at the Topeka terminals is around 14Z. The chance for TS remains low (around 20%), so have continued with just RA mention for now. Rain exits to the east by midday, but MVFR CIGS may linger for a few more hours in eastern KS. Conditions improve to VFR this afternoon and south winds remain gusty until around sunset.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.