textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Another warm and mostly dry day today before rain chances increase this evening across central Kansas.

- Warm temperatures continue through the end of October with highs in the 70s and low 80s.

- Low chances for rain (20-40%) will exist on most days this week but not expecting much in terms of rainfall amounts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

The central US continues to remain under the influence of the large upper level cyclone situated across the desert southwest. Further north, the main jet stream connects two upper lows; one across the PNW and the other approaching the Hudson Bay. Back across the central Plains, mid and upper level moisture continues to stream northeast ahead of the main trough axis as compact upper-level ridging keeps the region warm. With WAA within this pattern expected to continue today, high temperatures will again creep back into the upper 70s and low 80s as broken decks of mid and high clouds stream in across Kansas. By late this afternoon and evening, the surface cyclone and inverted trough deepens across central Kansas in response to the eastward progression of the upper cyclone. This should shift a good focal point of low-level isentropic ascent and mid-level ascent across central and north-central Kansas. Rain chances will be expected within a narrow corridor into Monday morning across central and north-central KS with chances quickly waning as one heads east of Hwy 81. Most areas stay dry Monday with the exception of areas near the Hwy 81 corridor. Scattered precipitation chances (20-30%) do not seem to shift into eastern Kansas until Tuesday morning as the upper-level cyclone finally ejects off the central Rockies and across Nebraska. A weak cold front slides across the area Tuesday yielding low-end PoPs (20-40%) and slightly cooler afternoon temps (low to mid 70s).

By Wednesday and the remainder of the week, temperatures are expected to rebound back into the upper 70s and low 80s as southwesterly flow sets up across much of the western and central CONUS. Several nodes of vorticity embedded in the flow will move across the region keeping low-end PoPs in the forecast for the remainder of October. That said, not expecting much in terms of copious amounts of rainfall.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 551 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR TAFs persist with broken high clouds and light south/southeasterly winds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.