textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storm threat once again today mainly by late afternoon/evening along the cold front over east-central into portions of far northeast Kansas. Hail and wind will be the primary hazards with a low tornado threat.

- A stronger storm system set to arrive by Friday afternoon which may bring a larger severe threat to the area especially by afternoon into the evening hours. All hazards may be in focus.

- Saturday and Sunday morning could see frost and freeze hazards mainly across areas north of I-70.

- Some north-central Kansas counties may see elevated fire danger conditions set up during Saturday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Early this morning, showers and storms remain mainly northeast of the area and also south of the area ahead of the main western trough in place with axis from the northern Plains into the Baja region. A cold front is roughly along the KS/NE border from southeast NE extending into west central Kansas which is quasi-stationary at the moment. The dryline has retreated back to southwestern KS and western OK. A deep moist Gulf airmass remains in place this morning across the area with dewpoints in the 60s. A LLJ is overhead which is helping keep WAA in place aloft for nocturnal storms to remain in place across the aforementioned areas. The associated isentropic ascent should allow a few of the southern showers and embedded non- severe storms to work into central and east-central Kansas areas over the next several hours. Expect these to generally weaken into the mid-morning hours then gradual clearing should take place through the day.

This sets the stage for potential severe storms later this afternoon mainly along the cold front as it is pushed west to east across the area. The upper trough remains mostly positive to neutrally tilted as it advances east. Overall, the phased upper system is expected to undergo a decoupling of sorts as the southern flank deamplifies and the northern portion lifts east/northeast. This will help push the front through the area. As the cap weakens due to the forcing aloft combined with surface heating after clouds clear into the afternoon then expect storms along the cold front. Shear vectors appear to be somewhat parallel to the upper flow as the trough remains mainly positively tilted. This should allow for any initially discrete updrafts to interact with other updrafts fairly quickly and lead storms to more naturally want to congeal. Could see early storms posses a very large hail threat with the unstable and highly sheared environment. Then if a bowing structure can develop wind would be favored but also can't rule out a tornado threat especially if this occurs. The big uncertainty appears to be when clouds clear and how strong the remaining cap is near anticipated initiation by late afternoon. Also, if the cold front begins to move faster then that could focus the better storm threat even east and southeast of the area. This will have to be tracked through the day today.

Right now, Friday looks to have a larger severe threat potential as an intense Pacific trough digs into the central Plains. Deep Gulf moisture easily returns to the area with return flow ahead of the forcing that moves into the are by Friday morning into the afternoon. The forcing could be at a magnitude that causes any cap to quickly erode without requiring much heating into the afternoon. This could either be strong enough to cause more showers to develop earlier than anticipated or it could help foster the rapid development of supercells if no showers develop ahead of the system. Shear again looks mainly parallel to the flow so interactions would be likely again. Could see the initial storms become a very large hail threat again then transition to a wind and tornado threat. Any training would probably lead to flooding with several areas seeing high rainfall amounts already the past several days not considering what occurs this afternoon for rainfall amounts.

Colder and drier weather not to be ignored into Saturday and Sunday morning may give rise to concerns for frost/freeze conditions mainly north of I-70. Saturday could also see dry and windy conditions into the afternoon over north central areas leading to elevated fire danger conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Clouds have been scattering early this afternoon, and would expect some low-end VFR cumulus to persist in the first part of the period. Will continue to monitor for TS development as a weak cold front passes across the area, but this looks most likely to occur east of terminals and will keep TS out of TAFs as a result. Otherwise, expect gusty SW winds to gradually veer a bit ahead of the front and briefly turn westerly with fropa. As winds diminish this evening, they should back to the SW and remain there through Thursday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.