textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm Sunday and Monday ahead of the next frontal system - highs around 80 into the low 80s.

- Storm chances increase into the late afternoon into the evening Monday. Some storms could become severe but uncertainty still exits in the overall setup.

- Cooler through the week with a drying trend after the front passes through - potentially warming into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The forecast focus is through Monday afternoon and evening as a mid- to upper-level trough digs into the northern and central Plains and phases with a cutoff low currently positioned along the California coast. Ahead of this system, southwest to southerly surface flow will support a warming trend Sunday into Monday, with temperatures climbing above seasonal norms across the area.

By Monday afternoon, GFS guidance indicates increasing quality moisture advection into the region, with surface dewpoints rising into the 60s across much of the CWA. A frontal boundary working into the region will provide the primary focus for convective initiation late Monday afternoon into the evening, with low-level convergence along the boundary serving as the principal forcing mechanism across the forecast area. The key forecast question is the strength of the capping inversion and elevated mixed layer (EML) aloft. Forecast soundings from both the NAM and GFS depict a fairly strong EML may be established, with the GFS trending stronger with capping than the NAM which is a meaningful operational disagreement that limits confidence in convective coverage at this time.

Probabilistic severe weather guidance from the CSU-MLP Day 3 forecast lends some support to a severe threat, with hail probabilities maximized across eastern Kansas into Missouri at roughly 15 percent, indicating a non-trivial conditional severe hazard if storms can break the cap. Damaging wind probabilities are overall lower and displaced east/southeast of the area. The tornado signal remains minimal at this lead time. In the lower-cap scenario, scattered storms could develop along the front during peak heating into the early evening, with hazards focused on large hail and damaging winds given the strong mid-level dry air evident in forecast soundings. In the stronger-capped scenario, storm coverage remains isolated to widely scattered, with the bulk of severe potential suppressed beneath the EML. Mesoscale details regrading the frontal placement, quality moisture return, and the timing of any capping erosion remain uncertain at this time.

Behind the front Monday night into Tuesday, northwest flow becomes established aloft. A drying trend is expected through the mid-week period with temperatures returning to near-normal levels.

By the latter half of the week, ensemble cluster guidance signals a transition toward higher heights and ridging building eastward into the central Plains. Cluster analysis indicates that three to four major ensemble solutions support a western ridge with positive height anomalies extending into the central CONUS. The multi-model ensemble mean reinforces this signal. A return to above normal temperatures is likely heading into next weekend, with highs trending into the 80s across the CWA in the dominant cluster solutions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Wind is the main concern with TAFs this period as VFR is expected to continue. Nearly calm winds this evening increase out of the south tonight and may gust 20 to 25 kts by mid-morning. A weak boundary will move through a shift winds throughout the day from the southwest to the west and then to the northwest during the afternoon. Winds weaken behind the boundary.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.