textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very high fire danger continues for the whole area this afternoon and looks to persist into Saturday afternoon for parts of the area.

- A wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow is forecast for Sunday afternoon and evening. Travel could become difficult due to minor accumulations of snow and ice.

- An active pattern next week will lead to several chances for rain. Some areas could see a few inches of rain by the end of next week leading to some flooding concern across east central Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper high over the Baja of California with weak ridging extending north along the CA coast. This left northwest flow over the Great Plains. Surface obs showed a low pressure system north of Lake Superior with a trough extending into northern MO. Westerly winds behind the trough along with full sunshine has pushed temperatures into the lower and middle 70s.

The forecast is pretty straight forward for tonight through Saturday night with no obvious forcing for precip. There are some signs from the models of some mid level warm air advection developing overnight tonight with steep mid level lapse rates. Even some of the CAMs develop an isolated shower or two. But most guidance fails to saturate the layers within the warm air advection and produce any QPF. Have left the forecast dry with the consensus showing no precip, but it is not out of the question that a shower pops up over Coffey or Anderson counties. A cold front is progged to push through the area late Saturday. This could make highs a little tricky depending on when cold air advection picks up. For now this looks to be late in the period and have stuck with the blend that has a good gradient from north to south with highs.

The front on Saturday is what sets the stage for a wintry mess on Sunday and Sunday night. A shallow surface ridge with cold air is expected to move into the forecast area for Sunday as a subtle shortwave passes over. Some moisture advection over the shallow cold air along with forcing from the wave should promote the development of precipitation Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately there is still a mixed signal from the various models of what will happen. The GFS is the coldest solution and would suggest more snow is possible. The ECMWF remains one of the warmer solutions which could be problematic for freezing rain. And there isn't much direction on which way to go from the respective ensembles, which support their operational solutions. What does seem clear is there will be some wintry mix of precipitation and have kept the blend forecast from the NBM as a reasonable first guess. The best timing of the precip looks to begin in the afternoon and come to an end during the early morning hours of Monday as the lift exits east. Areas along the NEB state line have a better chance of seeing some minor snow accumulations around an inch and areas along and north of I-70 may see some minor ice accumulations. At this time there doesn't appear to be an ice storm in the offering as ensemble output including the NBM and SREF show the potential for freezing rain at around 10 percent. Additionally the K-State mesonet shows average surface temps from the past seven days ranging from 38 to 42 degrees. However if the NAM and ECMWF solutions become more likely with a stronger warm nose and surface temps at or below freezing there could be more freezing rain with elevated surfaces seeing some ice accumulation Sunday evening. We will probably end up with a winter weather advisory at some point with this system simply for the mix of precipitation type and minor accumulations. The greatest impact from the weather looks to be to travel conditions while ice accumulations look to be less than a tenth of an inch with little impact to infrastructure.

The forcing for precip lessens during the day Monday, but cloud cover may make is difficult for a big warm up. Again there is a pretty good spread in possible outcomes of 10 to 15 degrees in highs. An active pattern is progged by the models for the rest of next week. The good news is the jet stream remains across the northern tier allowing temps to remain warm for all rain. The NBM has POPs in the forecast each day, but based on the operational solutions it looks like Tuesday and then into the latter half of the week stand the better chances for precip. For the five day period, there could be a few inches of rain, especially over east central Kansas. So we will need to keep an eye on rivers next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 459 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions likely continue through the period with winds backing steadily. Any overnight showers or a brief thunderstorm likely remain south of the terminals along the nose of a weak LLJ.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.