textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Up and down temperatures the next several days, with today and Tuesday being the warmest days.

- Thunderstorms become possible Tuesday late afternoon, better chances evening and overnight. Hail and wind remain the primary severe hazards along with flooding in areas that recently received more rainfall.

- Thursday looks to bring widespread elevated fire danger across the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Early afternoon water vapor imagery depicts the main westerlies across the northern tier of the CONUS, while a cutoff low spins over the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. A weak surface trough is situated in southeastern Nebraska. A warm day is underway with ample sunshine and southerly winds having brought temperatures into the 70s area- wide. With a few hours left to go before peak heating, still thinking we could make a run at record highs for today. Most of the wind gusts to around 20mph have been in eastern areas where RH is higher, helping to keep fire weather concerns fairly limited, but still just enough to be in the high to very high range through this afternoon.

The main focus of the forecast is on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Through the day, a low-amplitude trough starts to develop in the westerlies to our north over the Rockies, while the cutoff low begins to phase into the main flow pattern as it comes northeast into TX. Although some recent guidance is suggesting it may not merge completely and instead try to cut off again on Wednesday. In the meantime, a sfc low is progged to deepen and move across the state during the day Tuesday. This will set up a warm front in the area by the afternoon with moisture advection taking place behind it. Instability and shear south of the boundary are sufficient for severe weather if storms are able to develop in that environment; however, a lot of soundings suggest a cap remains in place during that time frame. While this is the less likely scenario, if storms can break the cap in the late afternoon (4-7pm), this would provide a narrow window for storms with the greatest severity. Placement of the front will determine where exactly this risk is, but at this time I-35 and south appears to be the most favored area if this situation occurs. The more likely scenario is that scattered storms develop later in the evening (7pm or later) as the low-level jet kicks in. These storms look to be a bit more elevated and would present a hail and wind threat, impacting areas along and south of a line from around Abilene to Hiawatha. Given that the bulk of storm activity looks to be in the same general vicinity as areas that saw more rain a few days ago, plus there could be some component of storm motions parallel to the boundary, cannot rule out some renewed flooding concerns in east central KS as well. There should be somewhat of a break overnight as this round of storms pushes north and additional post-frontal rainfall moves in early Wednesday morning.

The trough axis moves east by mid-day Wednesday, ending the rainfall with cooler air in its wake, but looking more seasonal behind the cold front with highs in the 50s. Low-level winds quickly turn back to the southwest Thursday with a tightening pressure gradient as a clipper system dives southeast into the Northern Plains. This will lead to a breezier day along with warmer and drier conditions, also leading to our most favorable day for fire weather concerns this week.

The aforementioned clipper continues through the Upper Midwest into Friday, allowing for warmer temperatures to remain with us into the end of the week. That said, spreads widen in the ensemble data by Saturday and especially Sunday. A stronger system is progged to come through the central US to start off next week, and the track of this system will influence our temperatures and precip chances. PoPs remain low with the uncertainties this far out, but it does look as though below average temperatures are favored by next Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Could see some occasional gusts to 20 kts this afternoon mainly at FOE, while at MHK winds look light enough to stay predominantly under 10 kts. Winds overall become lighter tonight and may briefly back a bit towards the south, then pick back up from the SW late in the period for Topeka sites. Most guidance keeps low stratus Tuesday morning east of terminals, so have maintained high cloud mention for eastern KS during that time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Today, fire weather conditions will be high to very high across the area with generally good to excellent smoke dispersal rates with sufficiently deep mixing in place into the afternoon. Winds remain out of the WSW and generally begin to decrease into mid afternoon and calm into the evening with afternoon gusts generally under 20 mph for most limiting overall fire danger. MinRH values to the low 20 percent ranges over western areas with 30 to 40 percent ranges over the east.

A front sets up across the area on Tuesday with overall weak winds in place over northern areas along the likely position of the developing front. Over east-central areas, winds will become stronger and deeper into the afternoon but the offset by increasing moisture bringing minRH values to 40-50 percent ranges.

Thursday may bring the next most favorable conditions to support elevated fire weather conditions. Depending on the position of another weather system moving across the northern Plains into the afternoon, SW winds may increase across the area and coincide with deep afternoon mixing to help overlap with low minRH values to around 20 percent or lower over western areas with slightly higher RH values over eastern areas into the mid to upper 20 percent ranges but all areas may still see favorable conditions in place for elevated fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Record high temperature information:

March 9 Current Record Forecast High ------------------------------------------ Topeka 80, set in 1986 80 Concordia 81, set in 1986 80

March 10 Current Record Forecast High ------------------------------------------ Topeka 84, set in 1967 83 Concordia 84, set in 2025 70

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.