textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather continues Today, and most likely Wednesday as well.

- Daily rain chances are forecast Wednesday afternoon through next weekend, although severe weather risks are low.

- Near average temperatures are forecast Thursday through next Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery along with upper air analysis showed split flow across the conus. A southern stream upper trough was located across southeast TX. An amplified northern stream trough was moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest. Embedded upper level troughs within the northern branch of the jet were located across south central Canada, eastern Canada, and New England.

The 17Z surface map showed a lee surface trough extending from the southeast WY, southward across the central and southern high Plains. Southerly winds were noted with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the CWA.

Today through Monday:

The H5 trough across the Pacific Northwest will slowly dig south- southeast into south central CA and southwest NV by Wednesday night. A weak mid-level perturbation across northern Mexico, embedded within the southern stream Jet will lift northeast across western TX, then northeast across OK. The showers and thunderstorms should remain south and southwest of the CWA through Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, an H5 trough will dig southeast and amplify across the Great Lakes and eastern US on Tuesday. This will cause a back door cold front to move southwest across the CWA Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. The upper flow will become southeasterly Wednesday into Thursday as a down stream H5 ridge amplifies across the northern MS River Valley and eastern northern Plains. Embedded perturbation in the southeast mid-level flow may provide ascent for showers and storms. The combination of convergence along the front, isentropic lift east of the front, and minor perturbations moving northwest across eastern KS will provide the CWA with the best chances for showers and storms. The LREF shows a 60 percent probability of receiving 0.25" of rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday night, with only a 30 percent probability of receiving 0.25" of rainfall across the northeast counties. There will be very little vertical wind shear for organized storms. Therefore, I do not expect any strong to severe storms and lightning may be the only hazard.

The front will remain stationary from eastern OK, northwest across western KS into the weekend. The H5 trough over south central CA will fill as it lifts north-northeast into the northern high Plains and southern Canada this weekend. A broad upper ridge will amplify across the upper midwest and eastern Plains. Most of the showers and storms will be south and southwest of the CWA Friday through Monday but I cannot rule out a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm Friday and into the weekend. Sunday night through Monday, a broad surface ridge will build southwest from WI into northeast KS. High temperatures in the extended forecast will be close to seasonal with upper 70s to lower 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southerly winds of 8 to 12 KTS with some minor gusts will diminish towards sunset.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.