textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered storms this afternoon could produce small hail and gusty winds, but severe weather is unlikely.

- Additional showers and storms are possible (15-30% chance) on Wednesday.

- Higher chances for more widespread rain come Thursday and especially this weekend.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly above normal, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A convectively enhanced perturbation is moving across eastern Kansas and western Missouri this afternoon with a remnant outflow boundary draped from Belleville to Junction City to Council Grove. While large-scale ascent is weak, convergence along this boundary in a weakly capped and unstable airmass has lead to the development of isolated to scattered storms. Effective shear of 20-25 kts could support a few updrafts capable of producing gusty winds and/or small hail, but the severe potential is low. Slow storm motions and high PWATs could lead to heavy downpours underneath any of these storms before activity wanes with sunset this evening.

A complex of showers and storms that develops across western Kansas this evening will advance northeast towards the forecast area into Wednesday. Guidance varies in how long into the day and how far east these showers and storms will persist, but think there is at least a low chance for some showers/storms through the day Wednesday given a similar environment to today. A shortwave works to push the mid-level ridge east and brings the next chance for showers and storms to the area Wednesday night into Thursday. A closed upper low slowly lifts northeast across the Plains late this week with southwesterly flow ahead of this feature leading to chances for showers and storms Thursday through the weekend. Guidance has come into better agreement in the closed low moving across the area Saturday into Sunday, which brings the best chances for more widespread precipitation. Weak shear should limit the overall severe potential, with a slightly higher chance as the closed low approaches this weekend. While it won't be a washout, GEFS and ENS QPF means are 1- 1.5" across the area, with a signal for higher amounts depending on where consecutive rounds of storms track. Temperatures hold near to slightly above average over the next week, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A conditionally unstable airmass is likely to remain over the terminals through Wednesday. Although CAMs indicate shower activity to remain isolated. So will not include a mention of precip in the forecast at this time due to a lack of focus for storm development. Bigger concern is models developing some MVFR CIGS by daybreak Wednesday. Most guidance keeps this just west of TOP and FOE, but there is a good signal from lower CIGS into MHK. Think the CIGS will persist into the afternoon with a BKN stratus deck changing to a SCT CU field as the boundary layer deepens.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.