textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry conditions continue through Monday.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday through Thursday, with highest chances (50-70%) coming Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Uncertainty remains high in specifics during this time.

- More seasonable temperatures are forecast to return late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Morning water vapor imagery shows the remnants of Isaias moving north over the southeast US and an upper low across the Pacific Northwest. In between these features, mid-level ridging holds across the Southern and Central Plains and will remain so through the weekend, keeping dry conditions and above-normal temperatures in place. Breezy south-southwest winds gusting at 20-35 MPH are expected this afternoon and again Sunday with highs topping out around 90 degrees. Slightly warmer 850mb temperatures build overhead on Monday, leading to the warmest day of this stretch with morning lows near 70 degrees and highs in the low 90s.

Predictability decreases Tuesday through the middle of next week as guidance differs substantially on when the closed low ejects across the Plains and how strong this wave will be. Ahead of the closed low, ensembles are in good agreement in a surface boundary sagging into the area Tuesday, but how far south the front progresses is uncertain. Highs Tuesday will be dependent on the location of the front; highs will likely be near 90 degrees again ahead of the boundary, but only around 70 degrees behind the front. Large-scale ascent is weak, but frontal forcing could allow for showers and storms to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong ahead of the boundary given shear around 30 kts and modest instability. As the western closed low approaches, it ingests Tropical Storm Rachel and Hurricane Simon, with energy from Simon approaching the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday and increasing precipitation chances. Ensembles have been trending weaker and slower with the western trough. About 60% of GEFS, ENS, and GEPS members keep the trough west of the area through Thursday while the remaining 40% are more progressive and stronger with the wave. The environment could be favorable for some strong to severe storms during this time, but details are far too tough to discern at this range, especially given the uncertainty. Temperatures are favored to trend back to near-normal values by the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail. LLWS continues for the next couple of hours before surface winds increase, gusting around 20kts through the afternoon. Gusts drop off by 22-23z with the LLJ increasing to around 40kts again overnight, setting up marginal LLWS conditions into Sunday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Record Highest Low Temperature for October 12:

Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 68, set in 1890 and 1899 71 Concordia 67, set in 1975 69

Record High Temperature for October 12:

Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 93, set in 1899 and 2024 92 Concordia 93, set in 1899 91

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.