textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm today with record warmth Monday afternoon.

- Very high fire danger for most areas Monday afternoon - see Fire Weather discussion below for further details.

- Scattered chances for precipitation build into the area late in the week, mainly over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Minimal changes to the overall synoptic pattern with a weak shortwave over the northern Plains, an advancing trough over the PNW and a cutoff low spinning off of Baja California. Near the surface, diffuse pressure gradients has led to weak diurnal mixing across eastern Kansas under clear skies. This has promoted a nice warm up this afternoon as temperatures top out in the mid to upper 60s across most of the area. Even warmer afternoon temperatures will be expected Monday afternoon as pressure gradients increase across the area leading to efficient WAA and diurnal mixing bringing down very warm 925mb air. Short-range ensemble spreads for afternoon highs remain small, indicating a very high probability (90%) to break record highs. (See below for official records). Expect temperatures in the afternoon to reach the mid to upper 70s with the highest temperatures across central and north-central KS. In addition to the warmth, very high fire danger will be expected across the area. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for further details.

By Monday night, a cold front pushes across the area in response to a passing upper-trough in the northern Plains. This will push temperatures back down into the 50s for the remainder of the week. Conditions look to remain fairly dry until the late week before some small perturbations move in from the western US. Confidence in widespread precipitation remains low at this time due to the wide variation in model guidance at this time. A larger longer-wave trough moves into the central US by Saturday that will likely produce our best chance for precipitation. That said, most long- range deterministic guidance keeps the main axis of QPF south of northeast Kansas. Being on the north side of this system will bring a chance that some snow mixes in with rain Saturday night, but again, confidence in anything impactful coming from this remains low, especially with temperatures staying above freezing in this timeframe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR TAFs continue through the period at all sites. Winds increase out of the southwest late in the period, but should remain fairly light until then. Some shallow ground fog may develop around sunrise tomorrow morning, but confidence in addition to TAFs was low for any mention.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Very high fire danger will be expected across most of central, north- central and northeastern Kansas as record high temperatures and gusty winds develop in the afternoon. Given the efficient diurnal mixing that will occur in the afternoon, current thinking is that RH values dropping into the 18-25% range will become common by 2-4 PM, especially across central KS. Winds, while not overly strong, will still remain gusty by the afternoon. Expecting sustained winds of 10- 15 mph with gusts sitting around the 20-25 mph range. This may lead to spotty Red Flag conditions tomorrow afternoon and outdoor burning is not recommended. Will not issue a Red Flag warning at this time, but if confidence increases in even lower humidity and stronger winds, one may be considered. By Monday night, a cold front moves in from north-central Kansas, flipping winds from the southwest to the north sustained between 10-15 mph.

CLIMATE

Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Record High Temperatures for February 9

Forecast High Record (Year) Topeka 74 72 (1932) Concordia 75 70 (1976, 1996)

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.