textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate confidence for widely scattered storms to develop Sunday afternoon through early evening across portions of eastern and far northeast Kansas. Main hazard with these storms would be gusty winds to near 60 mph.

- Occasional storm chances become more likely (30-60%) Tuesday evening through Thursday as a frontal boundary settles into the region.

- The dangerous heat persists through Tuesday with peak heat indices each afternoon around 105 degrees. Relief arrives with the front mid week as temps fall back to the low 90s, perhaps 80s in some locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Mid level ridge axis is centered over the central conus this afternoon. Embedded perturbations along the northern periphery have resulted in clusters of storms towards northern Nebraska. At the sfc, temps are quickly heating into the upper 90s and should peak near 100 this afternoon as southerly winds sustain near 10 mph. Given the weaker mixing, dewpoints hover around 70 degrees, resulting in peak heat indices around 105 today. No changes were made to the Extreme Heat Warning as the ridge will persist in the region through at least Tuesday evening.

Focus turns to Sunday afternoon as latest short term CAM guidance is falling closer in line with the latest NAM/GFS/EC on a cluster of storms forming in the Dakotas before dropping south and west along a frontal boundary into northern MO. Majority of convection appears confined to MO, but could still see a few storms develop across far eastern KS through early evening. BLCAPE is decent by this time near 2000 J/KG while effective shear weakens further west and south into our area so I would not expect storms to maintain severe intensity for a prolonged period. If storms develop, main hazard with these storms would be gusty winds up to 60 mph.

Cannot rule out a similar setup on Monday with the isolated storm potential, however given mid level heights increasing north and northeast during the day, I opted to keep pops below 10 percent for now. Pattern shift commences Tuesday as an upper low tracks across Canada, shifting the ridge eastward while developing low level southwest troughing in the western high plains. A cold front enters northern Kansas by late Tuesday evening, developing a line of scattered storms towards Nebraska and portions of north central areas overnight. Additional northern stream troughing will determine how far south the front progresses Wednesday into Thursday as ensemble clusters are varying on the speed of the front and subsequent precip chances/temperatures. However given the synoptic setup and boundary settled somewhere in the area, low chances for occasional showers and storms remains reasonable Wednesday through Friday. Most locations will likely remain dry. Cooler temps gradually make into the forecast area by late week, returning highs to near 90 degrees Thursday onward.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. South-southeast winds may gust 15 to 20 KTS at times during the late morning and early afternoon hours. There may be an isolated shower or thunderstorm around the terminals late Sunday afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 6 Topeka 78, set in 1970 74 Concordia 81, set in 1939 75

September 7 Topeka 77, set in 1939 & 2016 72 Concordia 79, set in 1922 74

September 8 Topeka 78, set in 1983 74 Concordia 77, set in 1947 & 1983 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.