textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry pattern holds this week with overall high confidence. Any rain chance appears to be very low and likely would come in the early morning period Wednesday if any at all.

- Expect near average temps to continue through the first part of the week.

- A warming trend may increase into next weekend along higher heat index values.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Current WV imagery suggests broad subsidence beneath a strengthening anticyclone that continues to expand into the region from the Four Corners. The 12Z UA analysis confirms the local area remains beneath weak flow aloft with the Westerlies and any meaningful forcing for ascent displaced across southern Canada while deeper moisture holds south of the region. A stagnant, slow-to-evolve pattern is the result.

Through Tuesday, the surface ridge keeps mostly sunny skies, light easterly winds, and highs around 90 with lows in the upper 60s typical for July. The BL continues to mix dry in the afternoon periods even with vegetation at or around peak maturity. Thus, fog coverage this morning was less than the previous day and would expect this to continue with out moist flux more directly returning to the region. Could still see shallow fog within the river valley areas but most likely see dew in the mornings.

Looking ahead, the western ridge continues to build while the eastern flank becomes suppressed or may be slightly retrograding. Either way, the evolution of the upper pattern may allow for low level return flow to develop into late week into the upcoming weekend. A thermal ridge along with higher low level moisture may result which would allow for low 20C H85 temps to overspread the area. The lower level moisture would help bump up heat index values during the afternoon periods. Ensemble data continue to maintain a wide enough spread that overall confidence is limited in the longer range forecast. But, overall heat index values could once again approach the low to mid 100 mark which bears watching into next weekend. Any rain chances that remain meaningful look to be focused into the end of the weekend or into early next week if the upper pattern can transition to a more amplified northwest flow regime across the area with a trough digging into the Great Lakes region by early next week which would help usher in a cold front through the area if the pattern shift does indeed take place across the central into northeastern CONUS.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions with FEW afternoon cu developing. Calm conditions again overnight with a generally dry BL in place which should result mainly in morning dew or very shallow ground fog once again in river valley locations.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.