textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Heat indicies of 105-110 today.
- Better chances for showers and storms are expected Wednesday through Friday with high in the 80s.
- A hot and dry pattern is forecast to redevelop this weekend causing temperatures to warm back into the middle and upper 90s by Sunday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Strong upper ridging currently centered over the central High Plains continues to support hot conditions across the forecast area, with heat indices in the 105-110 range this afternoon. Ensemble and deterministic guidance show the upper ridge beginning to shift west and south by Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains will drive a cold front south across northeast Kansas during the day. This should lead to a slightly cooler day as dewpoints fall through the afternoon behind the front. Wednesday, it will feel noticeably cooler with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 50s. As the front settles just south of the area, shortwave energy embedded within northwest flow aloft will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. Associated cloud cover should also help keep highs near to below climatological normal for this time of the year, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. By Friday into the weekend, the upper ridge is favored to reexpand eastward from the southern Plains, allowing a return to warmer temperatures with highs back into the lower to mid90s and lower, more isolated thunderstorm chances.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with southerly wind today becoming northerly around 12z tomorrow as a cold front pushes through.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056- KSZ058-KSZ059. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ058-KSZ059.
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