textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and a rumble of thunder or two possible into this evening from south to north across the area then completely ending into the overnight period.

- Hot and Humid conditions Monday through Wednesday will push heat index values above 100 degrees. Headlines likely will be needed but refined over the next couple of shifts.

- A modified cold front will bring relief to the heat by the end of the week into next weekend. High variability on the timing of the front at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Currently, the upper air pattern remain very active with a meridional trough ridge trough pattern across the northern tier of the CONUS. A mid to upper level open wave with a subtropical connection is currently lift across the area central Plains. This is helping to draw continual Gulf moisture north into the region helping to reinforce the low level moisture which has been in place for several periods. Thus, expect continued isolated to scattered showers and an random embedded storm or two mainly across eastern and east-central areas through this evening. Looks like the favorable isentropic ascent will advect through the area by early Monday morning. So, periods into the evening and overnight could still have sufficient lift to help produce showers off and on. Overall, shear remains weak so disorganized showers and storms are expected during any given period this evening and overnight. The upper trough axis is entering central KS areas at the current time, so into this evening it looks like less instability and overall ascent will setup into the overnight. This should tend to favor a complete transition to light showers and eventually mist.

Thinking a light breeze remains overnight, so low ceilings should result rather than a favorable fog setup. This makes a dreary start to Monday with clouds slow to clear the area. There may be a few breaks in the clouds into the afternoon but mostly cloudy conditions Monday look more favored. If there are breaks in the cloud cover into the afternoon, there could be a few hours where instability favors a few thunderstorms to develop. Overall, shear looks marginal with the next Pacific trough displaced well to the northwest of the region. Not expecting a great setup for severe storms but one could be possible if enough instability develops considering the moist profile of the atmosphere. A limiting factor not in favor of any widespread severe potential appears to the be the southwest flow starting to reinforce an EML overspreading the area.

Into late Monday and Tuesday, the Pacific trough broadens over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains with west to southwest flow across the central Rockies into the northern Plains and High Plains region. This would favor the best shear over the northern Plains along with developing baroclinic zones so the severe risk appears highest over those regions. A thermal ridge sets up across the local area with the EML strengthening. This could allow for temperatures to warm sufficiently even with winds mixing down the low level moisture looks deep enough the dewpoints remain high into the lower 70s in some spots. Expect that generally along I-70 and into east-central areas may be looking at the first heat advisory of the season for at least Tuesday and possibly carrying into Wednesday. Will better refine this during the overnight and day shift tomorrow to determine inclusive zones.

By the end of the week the cold front finally arrives the Pacific trough swings through the northern Plains helping to push the modified cold front south into and through the area. This should break the back of the remaining thermal ridge in place and allow for more reasonable temperatures and heat index values to end the week ahead and into next weekend. Could see a few showers and storms develop along the frontal zone as well.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Showers continue to lift into the terminals to begin the period with marginal VFR cigs more likely that IFR. Brief IFR cig/vis may occur if showers become heavy but expected to be less than 30 minutes any given time through the afternoon. Removed mention of VCTS due to a more stable environment in place with very little instability suggested in current precip shield to the south. Overnight into early morning, the low levels remain saturated and IFR cigs could set up generally after 10-11Z from east to west. Confidence too low to drop categories to IFR at this time so have gone with SCT mention with lower cloud heights for now.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.