textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning continues until 8pm for counties north of the Kansas Turnpike with gusty winds, low RH, and dry fuels. Very high fire danger continues elsewhere.

- Blustery conditions continue into this evening with wind gusts between 40-50mph possible. Wind Advisory has been issued until 2am.

- Brief warm-up Saturday, then winter quickly returns early next week with minor snow accumulations Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Our area is within a northwest flow regime at the upper levels, as an amplified trough heads towards the northeastern US while a shortwave trough is noted moving into the Northern Plains region. Sfc high pressure has pushed south while a deep low pressure system has developed in ND/MT in response to the upper wave. This has led to a tight pressure gradient across our area with southwesterly winds gusting to 30-50mph (weaker east, strongest west). The WAA should continue to increase temperatures a bit more this afternoon with highs topping out in the 60s. Combining the winds with the dry air mass will keep very high to extreme fire danger in place into the early evening hours before RH begins a slow recovery into tonight. Main change to the forecast in the short term is the issuance of a Wind Advisory through 2am. The HRRR/RAP show a swath of gusts near 45mph moving across the area through the afternoon, whereas the HREF mean looked more borderline on gusts with a better signal for sustained winds reaching criteria during the daytime hours. The last couple of runs of the HREF have shown a 60-80% probability of exceeding 45mph gusts through the evening hours, whereas the HRRR/RAP individually show some signal for this but perhaps more of a scattered nature. While the HRRR/RAP may be handling this afternoon a little better, thinking it makes some sense to keep the higher gusts persisting through this evening as the LLJ strengthens to 50-60 kts overhead and some mixing should keep blustery winds going. Once the cold front pushes in from the north overnight, that should decrease the winds quite a bit.

Much lighter northerly winds are in place Friday as a sfc ridge slides eastward across the area. High temperatures look a touch cooler than today behind the front, but still above average in the upper 50s to low 60s.

On Saturday, an upper trough begins to amplify in the northern Rockies with rapid sfc cyclogenesis ultimately bringing a potent low pressure system to the High Plains by Saturday night. This will lift a warm front north through the area during the day, helping to boost temperatures to the upper 60s to mid 70s. Big changes are to follow for Sunday, as the cold front passes in the morning and leads to temperatures tumbling afterwards, falling to the 30s and 40s by late afternoon. Northwest winds again look blustery, and if current trends hold, another wind advisory may be needed. Additionally, there is increasing confidence for some light snow accumulations by Sunday night. There are some differences in timing related to whether we'll see any precipitation with the front, or if it all holds off until the wrap-around moisture comes in. Either way, snow amounts are currently favored to be under an inch, but some high-end potential exists for an inch or two, so this will be something to monitor in the coming days.

Below average temperatures continue into Monday and Tuesday of next week. Long-range guidance hints toward a mid-week warm-up as an upper ridge builds to our west.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected with winds being the main concern this period. SW winds have picked up and look blustery through the first half of the period, sustained 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts. HREF has had a strong signal for winds to this level persisting through the evening for its last couple of runs, so opted to keep sfc winds up until the cold front passes late tonight. This should preclude LLWS even with a 55-60 kt LLJ overhead, but will likely lead to turbulent conditions in the low levels. After fropa occurs, winds turn to the NW and should decrease through the night.

FIRE WEATHER

Updated at 136 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for north central, northeast, and portions of east central KS from Noon through 8 PM.

South-southwesterly winds will increase from 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours Today. Relative humidity will fall into the 18-22% range this afternoon. The southeast counties that received heavier rains Tuesday night may see humidity in 25 to 30 percent. However, this area will still have Very High Fire Danger. A surface front will move south Thursday night and switch winds to the north but wind will be light (generally 10 mph or less by early Friday morning).

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039. Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056- KSZ058-KSZ059.