textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Some chances (20-40%) for showers/storms for areas south of I-35 this afternoon.

- Some lingering storms may move across north-central KS Sunday night (20%), but Sunday and Memorial Day look to be mostly dry and warm!

- Active weather pattern returns to the central US by Tuesday/Wednesday with near-daily chances for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Weak troughing extending south of a Canadian upper low is noted across the central and northern Plains this afternoon with additional mid-level energy extending south in the Arklatex region where widespread storms persist. A look at surface obs and RAP analysis across eastern Kansas shows yesterday's front stalled out across southeastern Kansas. This has become a focal point for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development over the past several hours. There will be some chances for areas along and south of I-35 to see an isolated showers/storm through the afternoon, but with the front already south of the area and continuing to slowly move south and east through the afternoon, chances will continue to decrease through the day. By the overnight hours, surface ridging builds in from the north, helping to clear skies out a bit across the area. Some fog development may be possible across east-central KS where better low level moisture exists. Any fog is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise Sunday.

By Sunday and into Memorial day, low-level flow returns back from the south following the passage of the surface ridge. This paired with increasing mid-level heights should return mid 80 degree afternoon temperatures with mostly dry and sunny conditions. The only hints of precipitation may come across north-central KS Sunday PM and again Monday PM as decaying storms moving out of the high plains move east (15-20% PoPs). As storms move into north-central KS Sunday night, some could pose a gusty wind threat given inverted-v soundings, but chances of widespread severe weather remains low at this time.

A more active weather pattern builds in Tuesday/Wednesday as weak mid-level energy from Baja California ejects off the southern Rockies and enters the southern and central Plains. This system will be reinforced through the week with waves of mid-level vorticity kicking off a cutoff low that digs into the Great Basin region and stalls out. Near-daily shower and thunderstorm chances over the central US with periods of dry weather as well will be expected within this pattern. The overall set up does not appear very conducive to severe weather, but given high moisture in place and some marginal values of wind shear, cannot rule out a marginal severe storm threat day to day. CIPs continues to highlight the late week (Thursday/Friday) for best chances for severe weather, but still keeps best chances further west of the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist over the period as surface ridging slides in from the north. Could see some lower visibilities again Sunday morning near KTOP and KFOE, but better fog chances look to stay south and east of the terminals so kept out mention at this time.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.