textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat builds today and tomorrow, persists through mid-week. Heat indices near or above 100 likely each afternoon.

- A few low rain and storm chances over the next few days, mostly towards the Nebraska border. Otherwise dry.

- Rain chances increase for the second half of the week, along with slightly cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a fairly strong ridge over the western CONUS, with broad troughing in place towards the Great Lakes. Broad synoptic subsidence in place across most of the Plains, keeping clear skies and quiet conditions across eastern KS. This should continue through the rest of the day, with temperatures warming into the low 90s. There is an outlier scenario suggested by mainly the RRFS/REFS, where thunderstorms develop this morning in northwest Nebraska and move southeast into northern KS this afternoon before dissipating. While a weak shortwave is visible towards this area on water vapor, high CIN with warm mid-level temperatures leads to very low confidence in anything occurring. So will stick with a dry forecast. A similar low probability (15%) scenario could occur overnight, with any storms developing in Nebraska potentially briefly moving into KS before weakening. The severe threat with these would be quite low, but some gusty winds (40-60 mph) could briefly occur as storms decay.

If overnight storms do not occur Saturday night, Sunday is shaping up to be a warm and humid day. The upper ridge to our west will weaken some but flatten out eastward as flow turns more zonal, shifting the 850 mb thermal ridge closer to the forecast area. Still just enough uncertainty to hold off on a Heat Advisory, but the most likely scenario is for heat indices to climb into the 104 to 108 degree range across much of the area.

Monday through Wednesday, the heat should continue. A seasonably strong zonal jet looks to remain just to our north, with a quasi- stationary boundary somewhere to our north as well. Similar to Sunday, the pattern remains favorable for convection to our north that could result in temperature busts if outflow moves southward into northeast Kansas. But the most likely scenario will continue to be for mostly sunny skies south of the boundary, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid/upper 90s and heat indices in the low/mid 100s.

By the second half of the week, guidance remains consistent in a stronger shortwave diving southeast across the Upper Midwest. Still slight differences in the timing and depth of this system, with some recent guidance delaying the arrival by a day or so. Regardless, it should eventually push a cold front southward into the area. Increased shower and storm chances will arrive with and behind the front whenever it does move through.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Clear skies and light southeast winds will continue through the period. Some shallow ground fog will be possible towards sunrise, mainly in the favored river valley locations such as KMHK and KTOP.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.