textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record warmth today

- Becoming windy Sunday morning as a cold front moves through. Sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 35-45 MPH are expected through the day.

- Rain overnight tonight transitions to a wintry mix as colder air builds in on Sunday. Not expecting impacts from any wintry precipitation that does fall.

- Much colder behind the front Sunday night through Tuesday morning before temperatures moderate into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Southwest flow aloft resides across the Central and Southern Plains this morning ahead a western CONUS trough. Light to calm surface winds and high boundary layer moisture have allowed for some patchy fog to develop, although it's nowhere near as dense and widespread as it has been the past several nights. Elevated winds just off the surface along with passing cirrus appear to be keeping fog more transient and patchy in nature. Will need to monitor fog across Missouri as it tries to ooze into far northeast Kansas this morning.

As the western trough approaches the Plains today, a surface low develops in eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Surface winds become south-southwesterly in response, bumping temperatures towards record values with highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees. If fog and low stratus over Missouri reach into easter portions of the forecast area, warming could be slowed in this area. Even the few solutions that do bring the low clouds into eastern portions of the area have them lifting by late this morning, so don't expect this to have much impact on highs this afternoon.

The aforementioned surface low advances east across the state tonight into Sunday with passing mid-level energy and frontogenesis leading to an area of rain overnight. Forecast sounding depict dry low-levels, but think precipitation will be able to overcome this dry layer and reach the surface. 00z HREF members show some elevated instability across east-central Kansas that could produce a couple of isolated lightning strikes as well. A cold front swings through Sunday morning and winds will increase sharply from the north- northwest with sustained winds of 20-30 MPH and gusts of 35-45 MPH through the daytime hours. A Wind Advisory may be needed for much of the area on Sunday. Colder air will filter in behind the boundary and temperatures will fall rapidly after the front passes. High temperatures for the day will likely occur from midnight to sunrise. As the colder air builds in, lift and saturation increase in the low- levels while the mid-levels dry out. Depth of saturation should be sufficient to generate some light post-frontal precipitation, initially as rain or drizzle before the column cools enough to support sleet and perhaps even some snow before drier air builds in and precipitation ends Sunday afternoon. There is a low chance for a brief period of freezing drizzle as temperatures cool, but warm ground from the recent above-normal temperatures should prevent any wintry precipitation from being much of an issue.

It will feel much more like winter Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures fall into the teens Monday morning with a brisk northwest wind creating wind chill values of +5 to -5. Continued CAA through the day will limit warming and highs will only reach the mid 20s to low 30s Monday afternoon. Temperatures moderate Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 511 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

VFR conditions expected outside of some shallow fog at KTOP this morning. Winds remain light through the period, becoming south- southwesterly later this morning. Showers approach terminals around 06z, but confidence in coverage is too low to input more than VCSH at this time.

CLIMATE

Updated at 250 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Record Forecast

Dec 27 High Topeka 71 (1946) 68 Concordia 63 (1928, 1976) 64

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.