textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue early this morning before coming to an end by mid-morning. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across east-central Kansas.

- An active pattern holds into the weekend with several chances for showers and storms, although dry time will likely be mixed in. Temperatures hold near or slightly above normal.

- A cold front approaches the area Monday night, bringing increased chances for showers and storms and another shot of cooler air.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Isentropic ascent and a weak passing wave have led to an increase in coverage of showers and storms early this morning, primarily south of Interstate 70 along the nose of the LLJ. While severe weather is unlikely, effective shear of ~20kts along with 1000 J/kg of elevated instability could lead to a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds. There remains some concern for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with PWATs around 2" and storm motions parallel to the elevated boundary. 00z HREF members are less expansive with the 1"+ rainfall footprint than yesterday, but still show bands of heavier rainfall in the 1-3" range across east-central Kansas. Rainfall rates have been as high as 0.5-1.5" per hour so far, which could lead to these higher amounts in areas impacted by multiple rounds of storms. All-in- all, think the dry antecedent conditions will keep flooding concerns on the low end, but could see some localized flooding along and south of Interstate 35.

Precipitation comes to an end this morning and skies clear from north to south. A much more comfortable day is expected with highs in the 80s. There is a low chance for a pop-up shower or storm this afternoon/evening across east-central Kansas as model soundings show a weakly capped airmass in place. Forcing is weak and subsidence behind this morning's wave should work to suppress convection and keep conditions dry. High boundary layer moisture, light surface winds, and clear skies create a favorable set-up for fog to develop tonight into Friday morning. Have input patchy fog for now, but some guidance suggests fog could be more widespread.

Quieter weather builds into the area Friday as mid-level subsidence behind the shortwave trough spreads across eastern Kansas. Low-level flow returning to the south with mostly clear skies should help to return temperatures back into the upper 80s by the mid to late afternoon. Rain and storm chances will begin to increase again by Friday night and through much of Saturday with the next upper level disturbance moving off the central Rockies. Guidance remains mixed in the development of an MCS Friday evening/night. The global models and ensembles continue to show the highest chances of a convective complex forming and potentially impacting the forecast area, while short-range guidance largely fails to generate any convection. Will need to monitor trends as any MCS that does impact the area could bring strong to severe storms. With scattered precipitation and ample cloud cover for most of Saturday, high temps should stay around the mid 80s.

By Sunday and Monday, a strong PNW upper low will begin to eject across the northern Rockies as the southwestern US ridge expands west into the southern Plains. Breezy south winds will and diurnal mixing Sunday and Monday could be offset by clouds and precipitation. If cloud/precipitation coverage is less, highs could be back in the 90s for most.

Relatively cooler temperatures should come again as a frontal boundary moves into the area Monday afternoon and evening as the PNW upper low lifts across the northern Plains. An associated surface trough extending from Minnesota to western Kansas should track east across the state through the day Monday, increasing storm chances yet again. With better height falls well north of the area, the surface boundary is expected to stall out somewhere across southern Kansas by Tuesday. Scattered storm and rain chances along this stalled boundary remain common across much of the area Tuesday and in turn, keep temperatures on the cooler side. Long range ensemble guidance for temperature spreads Tuesday and beyond are still greater than 10 degrees so confidence in how long the cool air sticks around is still low. That said, deterministic long range guidance is hinting at a stout Arctic low digging out of central Canada by mid to late next week that could bring some more fall-like air to the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 547 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Storms near KTOP/KFOE will push to the southeast shortly with a mixed bag of cigs expected through the morning. Cigs have been bouncing between IFR and VFR, but think predominantly MVFR conditions will hold before cigs lift and VFR conditions return by late morning. There is a decent signal for some fog to develop overnight into Friday morning. Have left out mention for now, but VSBY restrictions may be needed late in the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.