textproduct: Topeka

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

At 19Z, a cold was located from around Sabetha southeast toward Russell, KS, just north of KMHK. Temperatures ahead of the front had soared to near 90 degrees by midday, slightly cooler behind. A few more hours of warming ahead of the boundary should allow temperatures to reach the mid 90s for locations along and south of I- 70, likely setting more records. Upper 90s even appear possible! Gusty southwest winds ahead of the boundary will quickly shift to the north-northeast post-front and increase to 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph. Strong winds and low RH will keep the Red Flag Warning in effect through the evening. Several models continue to hint at isolated shower/storm development with some elevated CAPE this evening mainly along and south of I-70. Chances for severe storms remain low.

Sfc high pressure moves in tomorrow (Friday), bringing in much drier air. While temperatures will be much cooler and winds will be lighter than today, RH values will easily drop into the teens for most locations, creating more concern for fire danger. Given dry fuels and recent hot weather, felt confident enough to go with another Red Flag Warning. Saturday looks even more concerning as high pressure departs to the east and southwest winds increase across the region. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for that timeframe.

Temperatures and atmospheric moisture quickly increases on Sunday with highs back near 80 degrees. The pattern of fairly low afternoon RH and somewhat breezy winds, however, will continue. Rain chances will increase toward midweek as long range models show a series of troughs moving across the CONUS. Hopefully, some much needed rainfall will occur and help with green up.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. There is a slight chance that a few showers could develop north of the front in the vicinity of the KTOP and KFOE terminals through 10Z. North winds will range from 15 to 25 KTS with gusts up to 30 KTS through the morning hours and may slowly decrease through the afternoon hours. North winds will diminish under 10 KTS by 1Z SAT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A Red Flag Warning continues today. The pattern remains very hot and dry. Gusty southwest winds are shifting to the northeast as a cold front moves through the region this afternoon. RH values are driest ahead of the front due to the hot conditions, but winds will be gusty behind the boundary through the night.

Tomorrow, the incoming airmass is very dry. The strongest winds may remain out ahead of the drier air, but conditions will combine to create more concerning fire weather. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been issued. Temperatures slowly warm back up Saturday into Sunday, and winds become breezy again Saturday afternoon. Very low RH values will again occur. Thus, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for that timeframe.

CLIMATE

Updated at 245 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2026

Record High Temperature for March 26

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1910, 1991) 94 Concordia 86 (1907) 87

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.