textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire Weather conditions will become critical late this morning through this evening. Red Flag warnings are in effect Today from 11 AM through 10 PM.

- Next chance for moisture appears to set up across portions of the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday. Thought amounts look light.

- Warm tomorrow through Tuesday. Then cooler Wednesday and Thursday, before warming slightly by the end of the week.

- Next Friday is starting to show signals that more quality moisture and dynamic setup may finally bring much need rain chances to the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level trough across the eastern Great Lakes, extending south- southwestward into the TN River Valley. A broad upper level ride was centered across southwest TX, with a ridge axis extending northwest across the central Rockies.

At the surface early this morning, a broad ridge of high pressure extended from southern MN, southwest across KS, then southwest into southwest TX. Temperatures were already in the lower to mid 30s across the CWA. Low temperatures around sunrise will drop into the mid to upper 20s.

Today through Monday night:

The west-northwest mid level flow will veer to the west. The zonal flow across the central Rockies will cause a surface lee trough to deepen across the high Plains. Southerly surface winds will warm temperatures into the 60s Today, mid to upper 70s on Sunday, and mid to upper 80s by Monday.

Today, we will see southerly winds increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 30 to 35 MPH during the afternoon hours, as the pressure gradient increases between the surface ridge across the lower MS River valley and the deepening lee surface trough across the central high Plains.

Tuesday through Saturday:

The deterministic and ensemble model solutions forecast a series of low amplitude H5 troughs moving east across the Plains Tuesday night through Thursday. A more amplified H5 trough will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday and then dig southeast into the southwestern US by the end of the week.

Tuesday through Wednesday morning, The first H5 trough will move east across the Plains Tuesday night. low-level CAA across the northern Plains early Tuesday will cause a surface cold front to push southeast across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Tuesday. Ahead of the front there may be enough residual moisture return for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front across east central KS. As the the front pushes southeast across the CWA, the moisture return will become more richer across southeast KS into central and southern MO. Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the southeast counties of the CWA as the front shifts to the southeast. There may be enough isentropic lift north of the front to keep the showers and thunderstorms going into the night across the southeast counties of the CWA. Also, ahead of the H5 trough axis, DCVA will provide ascent to help develop showers storms along and north of the front. Most models show the higher QPF will be southeast of the CWA. The far southeast counties may receive 0.25 to 0.5". North central KS will see lees then a trace and the remainder of the CWA will see less than 0.1".

Highs Tuesday afternoon will depend on how quick the front pushes southeast across the CWA. Ahead of the front, highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across east central KS. Northwest of the front, highs will be cooler in the lower 60s across the northwest counties of the CWA.

Wednesday through Thursday. The surface front will become stationary across north TX Wednesday morning before a second H5 trough will shift east across the central and southern Plains Wednesday night into Thursday. Isentropic lift north of the front along with ascent ahead of the H5 trough will provide the area with scattered showers. The southeast counties may a few elevated thunderstorms Thursday morning. Most of the CWA will only see 0.1 to 0.2" of QPF Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The southeast counties may get another 0.25" of QPF.

Highs behind the front on Wednesday and Thursday will only reach into the 50s.

Thursday night through Saturday, the longer range deterministic models begin to diverge. The ECMWF model continue to be more amplified and farther west with the H5 trough, keeping the H5 trough across the southwestern US into Saturday. The GFS continues to be more progressive and less amplified solution, with the H5 trough moving east across the Plains on Friday. The Canadian model solution looks inbetween the slower more amplified ECMWF and the more progressive GFS. The Canadian Model lifts the H5 trough northeast into eastern NE on Saturday.

Overall, it looks like there will be a better chance of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. If the ECMWF verifies there may be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night. The ECMWF shows a strong 60KT H5 jet lifting northeast across the Plains on Friday. If we clear out from morning showers and thunderstorms, we may increase instability and sufficient moisture for thunderstorms that develop in southwest KS and western OK to move northeast and maintain some of their intensity Friday evening. If the GFS and Canadian model verity, we may see more rain with some elevated thunderstorms Friday into Saturday morning.

The new run the ECMWF shows a possible snowstorm for northern KS Sunday night into Monday morning. But this solution will liekly change over time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds will become southerly after sunrise. South winds will increase to 14 to 18 KTS with gusts of 22 to 28 KTS through the late morning and afternoon hours. Wind gusts will diminish after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A Red Flag warning is in effect from 11 AM through 10 PM Today for the entire area.

Today: Surface winds will increase through the late morning and early afternoon hours from the south at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 30 to 35 MPH, and will continue gusty through sunset and into the mid evening hours. Minim RHs will drop down to 12 to 18 prescient across much of the area. The far southeast counties may see RHs drop to 20 to 23 Percent. The stronger wind gusts and low RHs will cause the range land fire index to be in the extreme criteria. Any fires Today that develop may become uncontrollable wildfires, given the dry dormant prairie grasses.

Sunday through Tuesday:

If there is residual moisture advection, the minimum RHs may remain above 25 percent. However, gusty southerly winds will continue. A wind shift to the northwest behind a cold front on Tuesday afternoon will likely cause fire control to become difficult. Therefore, expect a very high fire danger Sunday through Tuesday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.