textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A break in rain/storms builds in for the afternoon Thursday with clearing skies.

- Storm chances return Friday afternoon and evening along a cold front, mainly across far eastern Kansas.

- Dry and average temperatures are expected to persist into early next week with the next chance of widespread precipitation coming mid and late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Widespread stratiform precipitation has overspread much of northeastern Kansas, mainly coming from convection in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Mid-level lift has increased as a shortwave trough continues to push east into western Kansas and Nebraska. For the remainder of the early morning hours, expect stratiform precipitation and embedded thunderstorms to continue with very small chances (<10%) for severe weather. Precipitation begins to end from west to east between 4-6 AM. After 6 AM (generally between the hours of 6 AM-12 PM), the shortwave trough begins to push into eastern Nebraska and with SBCAPE still in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots and 0-1 km build shear around 30 knots, a few isolated storms may try to develop. That said, forcing needed to get storms initiated seems rather weak and diffuse with the best forcing coming along a weak convergence zone in north-central and far northeast KS. If a few storms can develop and become surface based, a large hail and damaging wind threat may become realized. Cannot rule out a tornado with any strong/severe storm, but low level shear vector orientations prevailing out of the southwest does not seem great for tornadogenesis. Convection should be east of Kansas by 1 PM Thursday. Temperatures should recover nicely by the mid to late afternoon as clearing skies from west to east will occur. Expect afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 70s - perhaps a touch cooler closer to the KS/NE border where stratus will take longer to burn off.

Our next storm system quickly moves into the Rockies by tonight into Friday morning as a lee surface cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado in response to an advancing mid-level trough. Efficient WAA and moisture advection will take place ahead of the surface trough through the day Friday with low to mid 60 degree dewpoints pushing back into eastern Kansas. By the mid to late afternoon hours Friday, capping will have slowly eroded across the eastern portion of the state ahead of an advancing cold front. Severe parameters of 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, 35-45 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear and steep ML lapse rates will again open a window for strong to severe convection. The main uncertainty at this point is how soon can convection fire along the cold front. Some CAMs hint at an earlier start - around the 1-3 PM timeframe - while others hold off convection until the late afternoon and early evening hours when the front is pushing into far east-central Kansas. It seems that the most likely scenario is for storm initiation to struggle until the later afternoon hours when better cooling aloft from the ejecting upper low catches up with the cold front. This would lead to a scenario where storms fire along the cold front along and near the I-35 corridor quickly becoming strong to severe and moving off into Missouri. Deep shear vectors near-parellel to the cold front also indicate storms quickly growing upscale. A large hail, damaging wind and brief tornado threat can be expected with initial storms that initially remain isolated. Once storms have congealed, the threats will shift towards 1 inch hail and damaging winds. Convection should be east of Douglas, Franklin and Anderson counties by 7-8 PM Friday.

CAA dominates Saturday's weather as high temperatures top out in the 50s and low 60s with breezy northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies. Surface ridging builds in by Sunday with slightly warmer afternoon high temps - topping out in the mid to upper 60s. Mostly dry conditions and near average temperatures persist into early next week before our next chance for widespread precipition looks to build in by the mid to late week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Exit of one system and approach of the next making for challenging aviation forecast. Winds have veered with surface low pressure to the northeast and some limiting stratus behind. Some breaks occurring into central Kansas so expect MVFR stratus to be somewhat brief, ending by 00Z, though even short- term guidance is varying on this timing. VFR conditions are then likely through at least 9Z but stratus looks to be building back in from the south over the subsequent several hours while gusty south-southeast winds return. The stratus may stay east of MHK but wasn't confident enough to leave it out at this range.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.