textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool weather sticks around through tomorrow. Rain chances should end Wednesday morning.

- There is a 40-60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night.

- Much warmer weather is forecast for early next week when parts of the area could see highs in the 90s by next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The forecast area was under a qusi-zonal flow per the 19Z water vapor imagery with a broad area of cyclonic flow over Canada and the northern US and an upper trough over southern CA with southwest flow into the southern plains. At the surface high pressure centered over the northern high plains was nosing into the state with a cold front stretching from the Ozarks into West TX.

The pattern is allowing weak perturbations to move across the area resulting in light rain. Another weak embedded wave is progged to move into a somewhat confluent mid level flow over eastern KS tonight bringing another chance for rain. Based on moisture profiles and better saturation across central KS, the higher POPs have been shifted to the west. This is in line with the latest batch of CAMs indicating better coverage for parts of central and north central KS. The lowering of QPF and limited forecast radar returns over northeast KS may be due to this mid level confluence and weak subsidence. Mid level lapse rates are pretty shallow and being on the cool side of the system should limit chances for deep moist convection to near zero. Models prog the surface ridge to slowly build into the central plains through the day Wednesday with dry air moving south. This is forecast to bring an end to the precip chances by the late morning. Continued cloud cover tonight is expected to keep overnight lows in the lower 40s. North winds providing some weak cold air advection Wednesday with lots of cloud cover should limit much of a warm up and highs are forecast to remain in the upper 50s.

An upper trough axis swinging along the back side of the northern trough is progged to absorb the energy coming out of the southwest Wednesday night and move east of the forecast area by Thursday morning. This is expected to setup northwest flow over the central plains heading into the weekend with dry weather to end the workweek. Better insolation Thursday and Friday along with a southwesterly low level return flow should allow temps to warm back into the 70s.

A shortwave was noted in the 12Z operational models moving through the northwest flow Saturday night. And the 00Z ensembles show a good signal for measurable precip. This looks to be the next chance for precip across the forecast area, and the forecast has POPs in the 40 to 60 percent range. This seems plausible as the 12Z GFS and ECMWF have decent moisture advection ahead of the wave. A cold front Saturday night is expected to provide a cooldown for Sunday. Otherwise operational guidance and ensembles show a good signal for warm weather returning for Saturday and early next week. By next Tuesday temperatures have a reasonable chance of reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s. Ensemble and AI models are showing the seventy fifth percentile for highs in the middle and upper 90s for some locations across north central KS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Conditions should remain VFR, but light rain could occur at airports overnight. The highest chances for -SHRA are mainly between 09Z and 11Z. Light and variable winds tonight then become northerly and increase to near 10 kts Wednesday afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.