textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Still hot and humid today, but slightly less so with afternoon heat index values of 95-102.

- A touch warmer Friday and Saturday, pushing heat index values to 100-105 degrees

- Low chance (15-25%) for a shower or storm today and again Friday evening. The severe weather threat is very low.

- Higher chances (40-60%) for storms come Saturday evening/night, including the potential for strong to severe storms. Details in timing, location, and severity remain uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The synoptic pattern remains stagnant across the CONUS with a mid- level ridge over the Ohio Valley and a trough over the western US. Southwest flow over the central Plains keeps a plume of higher atmospheric moisture over the region and isolated showers have developed within this plume across northeast Kansas. Not expecting any impacts from this activity. Weak waves of energy continue to pass overhead through the day today, leading to a low chance for isolated/scattered showers or storms. Confidence is rather low in timing, coverage, and location of any of these showers/storms, but the environment is not very favorable for severe storms. Inverted-V soundings do support some gusty winds out of any storms that are able to form. Cloud cover and scattered showers kept highs lower than expected yesterday, especially across the western half of the forecast area. Expecting similar conditions today, so have bumped temperatures down a bit for this afternoon. Heat index values are forecast to top out in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees in this area, so the heat advisory has been cancelled. Less cloud cover and lower chances for any showers should lead to marginally hotter conditions farther east, mainly across east-central Kansas where heat index values in the 100-102 degree range are expected. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for east-central Kansas with a Heat Advisory in place for areas along an Emporia to Alma to Hiawatha line.

Short-term guidance depicts a new signal for storms that develop across western Kansas this afternoon/evening to march eastward and potentially make it into north central Kansas around 10 PM. The 00z HRRR is the most aggressive with this convection, depicting some near- severe gusts across portions of north central Kansas before the outflow pushes ahead and convection weakens. A couple other CAMs have similar solutions, but a faster weakening trend in any complex that does evolve, including the 06z HRRR. Added some PoPs this evening and overnight to account for the potential for showers/storms, but would like to see more consistency from CAMs before buying into the more robust 00z HRRR solution.

Some shower/storm activity could linger into Friday morning before dry conditions are likely through much of the daytime hours. Expect less cloud cover across the area by Friday afternoon, allowing temperatures to be a few degrees warmer with highs in the low to upper 90s. Humidity remains, so most locales will see afternoon heat index values around 100, with some spots as high as 105 degrees. May need to consider expanding the Heat Advisory farther west. Convection that develops across central Kansas and in Nebraska could impact the area Friday evening/night, but confidence in the evolution of this activity is uncertain. If a cluster of storms moves in from Nebraska, it could produce strong wind gusts.

For the 4th of July, dry conditions are likely to start the day before a weak surface boundary approaches the area and shortwave trough moves across the Plains. Ahead of this boundary, heat indices will again be elevated, reaching near 100 degrees for most and up to 106 across east-central Kansas. Convection developing along this boundary in Nebraska may move southeast into eastern Kansas Saturday evening/night. Effective shear around 30kts and a couple thousand J/kg of instability will support strong to severe storms, but the timing, location, and evolution of these storms remains unclear this far out. There is enough of a chance for storms to impact any evening Independence Day festivities to stay up to date with the latest forecast information over the coming days.

Predictability decreases Sunday into next week as the front stalls across the region. Mid-level ridging broadly holds over the central CONUS, but waves moving through the ridge could lead to showers and storms at times. Temperatures do trend slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and PM heat indices largely in the 90-100 degree range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions expected this period. The upper level pattern could lead to another round of high based showers into early Friday morning but confidence too low to mention for now based on expected coverage. Marginal LLWS conditions possible once again during the overnight period generally around FL015 and above mainly due to speed shear. Again, confidence in actual LLWS conditions too low to include this far out. Any potential nocturnal storms developing over western Kansas and moving into the area is also too low confidence to mention at this time.

CLIMATE

Updated at 342 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature

July 2 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 78 (1925) 76 Concordia 78 (1974) 74

July 3 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 77 Concordia 80 (1934) 75

July 4 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1911, 1969) 76 Concordia 82 (1934) 74

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ012-KSZ024-KSZ038- KSZ054. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.