textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Thunderstorms continue across the area this morning. The severe risk is low, but storms could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
- Cooler and drier today through Sunday, then gradually warming into the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Thunderstorms continue to push southeast across the forecast area this morning as a potent shortwave trough advances east across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Storms have weakened over the past hour and this trend is expected to continue with storms eventually moving out of the area by 6-7 AM. Rainfall rates of 1-2" have been observed, but the progression of storms will largely limit any flooding concerns. A strong summer cold front will move through the area this morning, with gusty northwest winds ushering in cooler and drier air. Highs will top out in the mid 80s along the KS/NE state line and in the low 90s south of I-35, with dewpoints falling into the 60s behind the front. There is a low chance (<15%) for a shower to form this afternoon on the western periphery of the closed upper low, but think most locales stay dry.
The cooler and drier air becomes more noticeable this weekend. Surface ridging builds overhead for Saturday and breezy north winds will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal with highs in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures both Saturday and Sunday mornings will be in the 60s, perhaps even the upper 50s! Southerly low-level winds return on Sunday as the mid-level ridge oozes back over the Plains. Temperatures gradually warm each day into the middle of next week with humidity returning as well. Ensembles favor more zonal flow over the Central Plains Wed-Fri, with embedded waves bringing the next chance of precipitation.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
A line of storms is approaching terminals currently and will bring reduced VSBY, MVFR cigs, and gusty winds as they pass through between 07-10z this morning. A cold front moves through after daybreak with gusty northwest winds expected behind the boundary. There is a chance for some MVFR cigs between 14-18z, but confidence is not high enough to include in TAF.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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