textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for north central Kansas areas for this afternoon.

- Severe storms possible Friday afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves into the area. All hazards possible with a 15-30% chance for severe storms to impact any one area. All severe hazards will likely be possible especially over eastern areas.

- Cooler overnight and early morning temperatures set up Saturday and Sunday morning. Sunday looks to be the overall best setup with clear skies and calm conditions into the overnight and early morning hours.

- Elevated fire weather may still occur Saturday over north central areas if the winds are strong enough.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The mid to upper level trough that brought severe weather to areas off to east last evening has lifted to the northeast of the area and continues to dampen as it works into the western Great Lakes region. A broad cyclonic flow pattern remains over the western CONUS with a southern stream trough digging into the Baja region. Meanwhile, the more important feature for the Friday time frame across the area is the Pacific northwest low spinning over the northwestern CONUS at this hour. This system will continue to deepen and dig into the central and northern Rockies over the next day and half. The weak modified cold front that moved through the area last evening has stalled as it has been detached from the dampening upper flow. It is effectively just to the southeast of the area extending through southeastern Kansas into south central KS and northern OK. The dryline is further southwest into the TX/OK panhandle areas. The main hazards of focus are now fire weather for this afternoon over north-central areas (see fire weather section for details) and then severe potential for Friday afternoon into the evening.

Friday appears to have only minor changes from run-to-run forecasts of the longer range guidance and the majority of CAMS are hinting that conditions will be favorable by mid afternoon at the latest for storms to fire along a strong cold front with plenty of upper level dynamic support with DCVA generally on the rise coinciding with the strongest lift near the surface from the front. Any cap should be breached fairly early in the day with strong low to mid and upper level shear. As theta-e advection increases overnight Thursday into the Friday morning time frame, low level moisture increases which should provide sufficient moisture needed for buoyancy to increase quickly with heating. Expect early updrafts to be quick and powerful likely realizing ample environmental shear to produce some instances of very large hail. As storms grow upscale, the low level shear may quickly allow for bowing segments to form with strong damaging wind being a possible hazard along with tornadoes. Tornadoes may also be possible with early storms especially before supercells become outflow dominant but right now my primary concern with that scenario is that if the surface winds are more southerly to slightly southwesterly then tornado producing storms will rely more heavily on localized backing of the winds to become established likely from some type of outflow from a failed updraft or other local circulation. If the dryline is the to southwest then this is hard to see at this time. This highlights the importance of the outlook phase being just that, and outlook phase of possibilities since the mesoscale environment in the short-term can't really be predicted with a high level of certainty this far out. Then training of storms will also be on the menu of options due to parallel flow with the orientation of the upper trough to the low level and surface winds.

Into the weekend, Sunday may be the focus period for early morning cool/cold temperatures especially across northern areas as clear skies and calm conditions allow for frost or freeze conditions to setup. Then, the into next week, a western ridge translates east across the area. This will favor height rises and overall warming temperatures but remain in the 70s and 80s so still above normal temperatures favored before another western trough looks to emerge from the Rockies by the end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds will continue at 11 to 14 KTS with gusts of 19 to 25 KTS. We may see winds diminish under 12 KTS this evening but southerly winds will pick up after 6Z FRI to 13 to 16 KTS with gusts of 22 to 25 KTS. The stronger surface winds should keep the low-level windshear below 30 KTS during the early morning hours of Friday. By the mid morning hours of Friday south-southwest winds will increase go 15 to 20 KTS with wind gusts of 24 to 34 KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for north central Kansas areas for this afternoon due to minRH values dropping to the upper teens as mixing deepens and the pressure gradient tightens through the afternoon. Winds will gust to around 30 mph at times but remain out of a southerly direction. Expect critical rangeland fire conditions to set up as 1 hr fuels are expected to drop below 10 which would cause fuels to burn very efficiently.

Friday, showers and strong to severe storms are expected across eastern areas along a cold front that moves from northwest to southeast across the area. Elevated fire weather conditions may return on Saturday to north central areas but wind overall may be lower across the area generally out of the NNW.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020- KSZ034.