textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Multiple opportunities for thunderstorms from this weekend into late next week.

-Severe storms are possible with any development this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon.

-Temperatures are warm next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Scattered convection early this morning is occurring along the nose of the LLJ, and will shift northward into Nebraska by mid-morning. MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and about 25 kts of effective inflow shear could result in some small hail and brief gusty winds with storms early today. Isolated flooding could also occur, especially in north- central and far northern KS. Later today, a warm front moves northward through the area, allowing for theta-e advection and an associated increase in instability. A few CAMS show isolated thunderstorm development in the warm sector after 20Z, but given the overall lack of forcing, have kept POPs low in the 20 to 30 percent range. If, however, a few storms do develop, they could strengthen to severe criteria given 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and around 30 kts of effective shear. At least a low risk for a tornado or two also exists, especially in far northern KS and into Nebraska where hodographs show more low level clockwise curvature, resulting in 150-200 of sfc-3km SRH.

A brief break in precipitation could occur tonight before POPs increase again Sunday morning as a weak shortwave trough embedded in the southwest flow moves over eastern KS. This would just be rain with some embedded storms, but nothing severe. A dryline will then set up in central KS by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing again looks weak, but if storms form near the dryline later in the day, severe weather would again be a concern due to steep lapse rates, 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and at least 30 kts of deep layer shear. A similar setup is expected Monday with a dryline in central KS, but once again, there is a lack of large scale ascent, and the cap looks to hold much of the day. Thus, the current thinking is that conditions will stay dry Monday.

A more notable H5 wave will bring better forcing late Tuesday and Tuesday night, which appears to be the next best chance for additional thunderstorm activity. Temperatures should stay on the warm side of average through midweek with highs in the 80s from Monday through Thursday. Another storm system could bring storms back to the region on Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Small storms will likely impact terminals for a few hours tonight. Confidence is high in IFR CIGS following precipitation and continuing through much of Saturday morning. Improving conditions are expected midday and VFR will likely return by mid-afternoon. Isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon hours, but chances are low (20-30%) so this is not mentioned in TAFs with this update.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.