textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trend warmer the rest of this week, looking to be well above average by the end of the week.

- There will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening along and southeast of I-35.

- There maybe a small chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday into the weekend, although confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery showed a broad upper level trough centered over the northeast Hudson Bay, with an upper trough axis extending south-southwest across the central MS River Valley. A southern stream upper trough was noted across central TX.

The 6Z avarice map showed a cold front extending from the mid Atlantic states, west-southwest across central LA, southwest along the TX Gulf coast. A surface ridge of high pressure extended from the mid MS River Valley southwest across northern OK into the TX PNHDL. Light winds have become southwest across the CWA as the surface ridge axis has passed southeast of the CWA.

Today through Tonight:

An upper level trough will dig southeast into the northern Plains. The H5 trough across the Great Lakes and mid MS River valley will track east into New England and mid Atlantic States. The southern stream H5 trough across central TX will dig southeast into the northern Gulf. An H5 trough will dig southeast from western Canada, into the northern PLains. An amplified H5 ridge will be located across the southwest US, extending northward into the Great Basin. Northwest mid level flow will continue across the central Plains.

South-southwest surface winds on the northwest side of a surface ridge axis extending from north TX, northeast into the mid MS River Valley will provide the area with southwest surface winds and low- level WAA, allowing high temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tuesday through Tuesday night:

The H5 trough across the northern Plains will dig southeast into the mid MS River Valley by 6Z WED. As the H5 trough digs southeast, low- level CAA across the northern Plains will send a cold front southeast across the CWA during the late morning and afternoon hours. Residual Gulf moisture return combined with surface heating to steepen low-level lapse rates ahead of the front, will cause the instability to increase, with MLCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/KG along and southeast of I-35. Any thunderstorms that develop along the front may become severe with large hail (especially any rotating updraft, given 40 KTS of effective shear) and isolated damaging wind gusts. If the CAP breaks these storms will back build along the front from central MO into east central KS, southeast of I-35, during the late afternoon and early evening hours. If the front moves to the southeast faster than what most most numerical models forecast, then the thunderstorms would develop southeast of the CWA. The front should push southeast of the CWA during the mid and late evening hours.

Wednesday through Wednesday night:

The H5 ridge across the western US will shift east into the Plains by 6Z Thursday. The weak cold front will cool high temperatures back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Northeast winds will veer to the east and southeast Thursday afternoon as the front undergoes frontolysis across northern OK.

Thursday through Monday:

The extended range models are in good agreement, showing the H5 ridge will dampening down as H5 troughs round the Hr ridge across the Plains.

The mid level flow will become more zonal later in the week, and as perturbations pass east across the Plans , there may be enough ascent within the warm moist airmass for Widely scattered thunderstorms Friday through Saturday afternoon and evening. There may be a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night as a surface cold front pushes southeast across the CWA but the main H5 trough will be lifting northeast across NE into the upper MIdwest. The surface cold front should push southeast of the area Monday morning. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Sunday, with slightly cooler temperatures on Monday back into the mid 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Light southwest winds will increase to 9 to 11 KTS after 16Z and continue through the afternoon. Tonight winds will become more southerly but may gust up to 20 KTS at times after 6Z. There maybe low-level windshear at the end of the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Record High Temperature for May 15

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1944) 92 Concordia 91 (1944, 2012) 90

Record Highest Low Temperature for May 15

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 71 (1977) 68 Concordia 69 (1962) 67

Record High Temperature for May 16

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1931) 90 Concordia 93 (2019) 89

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.