textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-average temperatures through mid week before temperatures warm towards the upper 90s closer to the weekend.

- Minimal chances for rain over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A large dome of high pressure has settled across the central and northern Plains over the past 24 hours and will heavily influence our weather over the coming week. For today through Wednesday, easterly surface flow should help to mitigate temperatures getting much above 90 degrees. Additionally, Tds should be able to mix out into the mid to upper 60s each afternoon keeping conditions fairly pleasant for this time of year. This pattern changes a bit Wednesday evening into Thursday as a weak upper low retrogrades back west towards the central and southern Plains. This will return southerly flow across the area and prompt slow warming each day into the weekend. Expect temperatures Thursday and into the weekend to approach the mid to upper 90s - possibly some triple digits by the weekend. There could be some low-end chances for precipitation across far south and east portions of the area while this upper low meanders across Oklahoma, but best chances should stay south of the area. These chances seem best Wednesday evening and again Thursday evening. Long-range guidance is depicting the upper ridge to break down sometime next week as it pushes back west towards the western US. This should usher in some chances for rain and storms into the area, although confidence in exact details for any rain/storms at this time is low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR TAFs persist outside of some shallow ground fog at KTOP for the first hour or so of the period. Kept mention as a tempo group as it will be fairly short-lived and burn off quickly after sunrise.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.