textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of rain expected through the weekend. Best chances Thursday into Friday night and again Saturday night into Sunday night.

- Over 60% chance area-wide of at least 1" of rain through Sunday night. Isolated spots may pick up 2-3" total.

- Temperatures stay a bit above average, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

We continue to see an amplified upper pattern across the CONUS, as strong ridging over the central Mississippi River Valley is acting as a block. A broad and messy upper trough is currently over the western CONUS vicinity, made up of a series of upper lows. On the east side of the strong upper ridge, eastern Kansas remains under modest southerly flow. This southerly flow should gradually strengthen over the next couple days as a stronger upper low approaches the Pacific Northwest. With isentropic ascent in turn increasing again, we'll likely see a few more scattered showers develop this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, these should stay mainly along and west of the Flint Hills.

Thursday and again late Friday, we'll see two shortwaves move across the Plains in advance of the Pac-NW upper low. Expecting to see more widespread showers and storms develop with the passage of each shortwave. More moderate to locally heavy rain looks to be the main impact, though shear and instability seem sufficient for a marginal wind and hail threat. By late Saturday and into Sunday, guidance remains consistent on an upper low lifting northeast from western Texas, along with a good fetch of moisture. So rain and storm chances should quickly increase again after a brief break Saturday. Across the multiple rounds of rain, ensemble guidance is depicting rather high potential for another inch or two of rain. The LREF probability of at least 1" of rain through Sunday is over 60% across the entire area, with the 90th percentile suggesting local spots may see in excess of 2-3". Given the recent heavy rain across the region, will have to watch for some renewed potential for minor flooding.

Beyond Sunday, confidence is lower in the forecast for the first part of next week. We should still see a broad trough across the western CONUS, with ridging again strengthening over the central CONUS. As such, the general expectation is for a warm pattern to continue, with additional rain chances dependent on the location of subtle shortwaves ejecting east from the western trough.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Still potential for some MVFR stratus to approach from the south near or a bit after sunrise Wednesday morning, but confidence remains low on whether this will occur. Best chance for any showers also looks to be a bit west of the main TAF sites. Otherwise, any status that develops should scatter out during the afternoon. Southeast winds continue, picking up to around 10 kts during the day.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.