textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Breezy today behind an initial cold front.

-A secondary front brings a stronger push of cold air tonight.

-The forecast is trending drier and cooler for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Water vapor imagery shows northwest flow over the region following an initial trough axis that moved over last night. A secondary trough axis is noted near Sioux City and is moving southward through the mid-level flow. Northwest sfc winds are breezy this afternoon behind an initial cold front. CAA strengthens tonight as secondary cold front moves through the area and temperatures fall into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees by sunrise Thursday. Low stratus may move over the area for a brief period early tomorrow but sunshine returns for the afternoon. A cool sfc ridge will continue to build southward into the region throughout the day and into early Friday. Highs tomorrow will range from the upper 40s in far northeast KS, to the low 50s in central portions of the state. Temps fall into the 20s area-wide Thursday night/early Friday and then struggle to reach 50 degrees Friday afternoon.

The sfc ridge will slowly expand eastward on Saturday but the cool and dry air mass will remain in place over eastern KS. Attention then turns to the west where an elongated trough axis from the PNW toward the Four Corners region splits, creating a closed low that moves over the OK/TX panhandles early Sunday. Trends during the last few days have continued to take that system further south. The associated deeper moisture now looks to stay well south of the area, with a low level ridge centered to our east keeping dry atmospheric conditions in place here. Thus, confidence has increased on maintaining dry weather through the weekend. NBM still has some elevated POPs, especially in central KS but am thinking we will see that trend down with subsequent runs. Temperatures stay cool into early next week, but do warm slightly. Rain chances likely won't return until later next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Breezy northwest winds could gust to 25 kts this afternoon before subsiding around and after sunset. A stratus deck could work in from the north early Thursday. With decent model agreement, have included high-end MVFR CIGS at 14Z, but timing and height may still need to be tweaked slightly in upcoming updates. Stratus likely then scatters midday Thursday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.