textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Northwesterly winds continue into tomorrow before relaxing into tomorrow evening.

- Periods of light snow showers continue through this evening with a few possibly lingering into early Saturday morning. Little in the way of meaningful accumulations expected.

- Cold Saturday then a brief warmup Sunday before another cold front arrives for Monday.

- Temperatures rebound again with southwest flow Tuesday then remaining mainly steady around normal through the balance of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A broad and deep cyclonic flow pattern remains in place across much of the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS with a high amplitude ridge over the western CONUS into the Pacific Ocean. Hints of a Rex blocking pattern look to be in place along the west coast with a south Pacific low spinning west of the Baja region and SoCal. Across the local areas CAA remains in place tonight. Intensity and development of snow showers has been limited but sufficient lift and saturation in the DGZ will continue for the next several hours, along with limited instability, helping to maintain isolated short-lived light snow bursts which will temporarily reduce visibilities perhaps to around 1 mile as the entire mid-level shortwave works from northern Nebraska through the area this evening into early Saturday.

Expect Saturday to remain cold as a 1030mb high expands into the region quickly diving south which sets the stage for return flow Sunday and a return to around normal high temperatures. Northwest flow remains in place with another trough digging into the central Plains Sunday night which re-inforces the cold air helping to keep mornings very cold through Tuesday morning likely in the single digits to perhaps below zero at times for low lying areas depending on cloud coverage and how much winds decouple during the overnight periods. The northwest flow regime continues to be the dominate feature but the western ridge does broaden slightly as it ultimately breaks down into the mid to late next week time frame. Right now most ensembles keep northern stream storms tracking north of the region and southern stream storm tracks also remain more likely along the southern 1/3rd of the CONUS.

Monday may become a very high fire danger day if winds are stronger than forecast at this time due to dry fuels and lower RH values into the 20s. However, with the northwest wind, warming may be limited helping to keep fire danger at overall lower levels.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1051 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Breezy NW winds continue for most of the period. The strongest winds are likely to be in the first hour or two with gusts near 30 kts, then decreasing slightly to 20-25 kts the rest of the night and most of the day Saturday. They should relax with sunset. VFR conditions otherwise.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.