textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Lows in the low to mid 30s tonight across north-central Kansas will support frost formation. A Frost Advisory has been issued.

- Below-normal temperatures continue through the workweek.

- Another chance (20-40%) for rain comes on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A shortwave moving through the quasi-zonal flow has produced scattered showers across the area this afternoon, but activity is lifting to the northeast. Dry conditions are expected this evening and overnight as the wave departs and surface high pressure builds into the region. Light winds and clearing skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s across north central Kansas. Some guidance suggests passing clouds will continue through the overnight hours which may keep temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than forecast. Even so, the NBM has a 60-80% chance of temperatures falling to or below 36 degrees across north central Kansas and a 20-30% chance for temperatures to reach freezing in northern Republic and Washington Counties. Given susceptible vegetation and favorable conditions for frost formation, have issued a Frost Advisory for portions of north central Kansas where confidence is highest in temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s.

The cool pattern holds through the rest of the workweek with highs in the 60s and lows in generally in the 30s. Temperatures could fall low enough to support frost again Friday and Saturday mornings. A subtle perturbation sparks scattered showers and storms across southwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. This activity may make it into north central Kansas and produce some light rain before decaying. A better chance (20-40%) for showers and storms comes Thursday as mid-level energy ejects across the Central Plains. Forcing may be weak, but sufficient for showers and storms to develop. Hazardous weather is not expected given minimal instability (MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg) and weak shear.

Northwest flow aloft takes hold this weekend with southerly winds bumping temperatures back into the 70s on Sunday. Predictability decreases early next week, as shown by increasing spread in NBM temperatures. A few passing perturbations and fronts leading to at least low-end precipitation chances beginning Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MVFR cigs have begun to lift, but cigs may intermittently fall to MVFR this afternoon. Expect mainly VFR conditions thereafter, although there could be a brief period of low cigs this evening as well. Will have to monitor the fog potential overnight; elevated winds just above the surface may preclude development.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ034.