textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers are expected to develop again this afternoon. These will be hit or miss with most areas remaining dry.

- Highs Monday are forecast to be 95-100, leading to heat indices around 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory is posted for the entire area.

- A couple chances for showers and storms are in the forecast for Wednesday through Friday with a cool down in temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

07Z water vapor showed a similar pattern as the past couple days. A broad upper level ridge was noted over much of the central and western U.S. with a couple areas of disturbed weather over west TX and AZ. Surface obs showed a weak pattern with low pressure along the lee of the Rockies and relatively high pressure along the MS river valley.

The main player in the forecast remains the upper ridging and the latest solutions want to keep the center of the ridge to the west of the forecast area today and then build it east for Monday. This means another day with highs in the lower and middle 90s with isolated to scattered showers through the afternoon. Similar to the past couple days, shear and lapse rates are rather weak so the expectation is for some ordinary convective updrafts where the downdraft cuts it off as it rains.

For Sunday, have gone ahead and posted a heat advisory for the whole forecast area. There is reasonable consensus from the operational solutions for highs to reach the mid 90s and near 100 degrees. The main question is whether dewpoint temps tend to mix out. And with low level flow of 10Kt or less through 850MB, it is hard to imagine a lot of mixing of dry air to the surface. Based on the last couple afternoons, think dewpoints across north central KS will hold in the middle 60s with lower 70 dewpoints for the eastern counties. This gives heat indices around 105 for most areas. A little more subsidence as the upper ridge builds east may limit afternoon shower activity.

A frontal boundary is still on track to move through the area during the day Tuesday. This is expected to keep temps marginally cooler, but if it ends up being a little slower parts of east central KS may see heat indices up to 105 for a second day. Given the uncertainty, have opted to hold off on any headlines for Coffey and Anderson counties for now. For the rest of the week, the upper ridge is progged to shift south with pieces of energy rounding the top of the ridge and potentially bringing showers and storms to the region. Operational solutions have been pretty consistent in this idea for late Wednesday and Thursday morning. There looks to be a growing consensus for another wave to impact parts of the area on Friday. By next weekend, the upper ridge is progged to re-amplify over the central plains and limit precip chances. Ensembles continue to show a fair amount of spread in temps for Thursday and into the weekend. But the overall trend looks good with relatively cool temps Wednesday and Thursday and a trend warmer into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Not much change in the forecast with airmass showers expected through the afternoon. Low predictability in the location of this leads to a continued PROB30 group for now. Unless a shower moves over a terminal, VFR conditions should prevail with light winds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.