textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance for rain showers along a strong cold front late tonight through early Friday.

- Stout northwest winds are 20 to 30 mph sustained, gusting up to 50 mph from Friday morning through late afternoon.

- The combination of dry fuels, strong winds, and somewhat low RH lends to elevated fire danger Friday and Saturday afternoons (see Fire Weather Discussion below).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Strong, mid level meridional flow observed per water vapor imagery this morning across the central conus as the upstream upper low traverses Michigan and a cold front stretches throughout the southeast conus. Behind the passing sfc ridge axis, troughing builds over the western high plains today, allowing southerly flow and warming temps to return temporarily. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s over north central KS seems plausible given the mixy BL and southerly WAA ahead of the shortwave trough. Cold front arrives by early evening, increasing winds overnight from 15 to 25 mph sustained, gusting to 45 mph. Latest HREF guidance and individual members signal some decent 850-700 mb frontogenesis behind the boundary, along with moistening profilers to produce scattered rain showers and/or sprinkles. Consensus sfc temps lend to decent confidence for precip type to be mostly all rain, with no impacts expected.

Northwest winds Friday increase from 15 to 30 mph sustained, gusting to near 50 mph from mid morning through mid afternoon. Winds stay up around 10 to 15 mph Friday evening to Saturday morning as very cold temps settle into the teens. Minimum wind chills are near zero by Saturday morning. Multiple mid level perturbations passing with the main upper low may once again result in scattered, light snow showers or flurries. Any impacts are minimal given the limited moisture. A dry forecast ensues for the remainder of the period with no appreciable system passing through the region. Temps after Monday warm to near or above normal values in the mid-upper 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions will dominate this forecast. Some minor gusts are expected over the next several hours with diurnal weakening around 00Z. Northwest winds become established behind a cold front around 06Z with deeper mixing bringing stronger winds late. Precipitation chances remain low but could see some light activity around 09Z and again late.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Elevated fire danger conditions are possible for portions of the area Friday and Saturday afternoons as a strong cold front passes through. Confidence is high on strong northwest winds from 20 to 30 mph (highest towards north central Kansas) beginning early Friday morning and persisting through late afternoon. RH values are somewhat varied among guidance, generally in the 30-40 percent range. Drier conditions are forecast on Saturday afternoon in the 28-35 percent range, however northwest winds are somewhat weaker from 15 to 25 mph, gusting to 30 mph.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.