textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Due to high confidence in a prolonged heat wave extending into early next week, the Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning and extended through Tuesday.

- Some relief may finally come late next week, although even that is looking more uncertain.

- Some rain chances are in the forecast for the middle of next week, but they are low (15-20%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper ridge continues to dominate the southeastern US with one trough noted just southeast of the Hudson Bay and a deeper upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. This keeps weaker southwest flow aloft in our area with the stronger upper flow towards the mountainous regions. At the surface, low pressure has developed in the Dakotas with its trough axis into central NE and western KS, all in response to that troughing pattern. This has resulted in somewhat breezy southerly winds across eastern KS. The deeper moisture resides in TX/LA within remnants of the tropical system, and you have to get to OK before finding dew points in the 70s, but we are getting close in our area. The southerly low-level flow should gradually pull some of this moisture north and help to offset some of the deeper mixing that has occurred in recent days. Heat indices so far today have reached the 99-104 degree range and there is still time to heat up a little more this afternoon.

The overall sentiment was to not make the headline decision overly complicated with this forecast cycle. The upper pattern shows an omega block developing into the weekend with the ridge retrograding and becoming centered right over the Central Plains. This is not conducive to conditions changing anytime soon, and ensemble cluster analysis continues to show upper ridging holding over the central US through at least Tuesday, possibly Wednesday. Forecast temperature ranges also remain small through Tuesday with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 and lows in the mid to upper 70s. These ranges only widen slightly on Wednesday. It isn't until Thursday that longer range guidance starts to show some divergence in the model solutions, depending on how well low pressure systems riding the ridge will actually weaken it. This means there is some potential for lowering temperatures closer to 90, but even that is not certain as some solutions continue to keep the ridge overhead, which would lead to continued heat. Based on a combination of the pattern being favorable for prolonged heat, high confidence in hot temperatures, warm lows providing little opportunity for relief, and increased likelihood for impacts with the holiday weekend and outdoor activities, we felt it was prudent to upgrade the advisory to an Extreme Heat Warning and extend it through Tuesday. Cannot rule out possibly extending it into Wednesday as well. It should also be mentioned that even if dew points end up being slightly lower than forecast and heat indices don't reach or exceed 105 degrees in many places, 100-104 degree heat indices for multiple days in a row aren't going to make much difference from an impacts standpoint, especially with warm mornings compounding the heat stress each day.

In addition to late next week having lower confidence in seeing meaningful relief from the heat, there are some low chances for rain. But the same model differences leading to that uncertainty in temperatures also make it hard to have much confidence in rain chances, as the track of the systems (if they hold) favor rain chances outside of our area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions persist. Southerly winds sustained 10-15 kts will gust to 20-25 kts at times this afternoon before diminishing around sunset. The LLJ looks to increase to around 35 kts overnight, but low-level profiles favor more of a turbulence setup over LLWS.

CLIMATE

Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 4 Topeka 78, set in 2014 76 Concordia 79, set in 1954 76

September 5 Topeka 76, set in 1983 74 Concordia 78, set in 1899 75

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.