textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures gradually increase the next few days and return to above average by mid-week.

- Low rain chances return next weekend with dry weather expected otherwise.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

We find ourselves in an area of weak upper flow as broad ridging covers the southern CONUS except for a weak low near the Great Basin region, while the main westerlies are along the US-Canada border. A lee sfc trough has started to develop in response to the weak upper low, returning southerly winds to our area. As a result, temperatures are not dropping as quickly tonight compared to last night, and many locations remain in the low to mid 40s. Short-range guidance has trended a bit warmer with temperatures around sunrise looking to be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Isolated locations may get a little cooler, but overall not anticipating much of a concern for frost this morning. South/southwesterly winds should strengthen during the day today as the pressure gradient tightens over the area, helping to boost temperatures into the mid to upper 60s (about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday).

The upper low to our southwest weakens and ejects some shortwave energy out over our area early in the work week, but the only likely impact we see from this is an increase in cloud cover. The warming trend continues with southwest flow aloft, bringing highs to the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Our warmth peaks Thursday and Friday as ridging amplifies over the central CONUS, thanks to a trough digging across the western US. By this time, highs are forecast in the 80s with lows in the 50s, which is firmly above average for mid-October. Ensemble guidance continues to be in strong agreement on the medium- range pattern, leading to high confidence in this dry and warm weather through this week. The main uncertainty in the forecast remains with the timing of the western trough and associated precipitation chances late this week, at which point some differences can be seen in the system's evolution. Rain has trended later compared to 24 hours ago, with low chances now coming on Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 541 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR continues. Light southerly winds early this period increase to 10-15 kts sustained with gusts 20-25 kts late morning through afternoon, diminishing as we approach sunset.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.