textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms generally exit the area by mid morning then a few showers may linger especially across eastern areas into midday and early afternoon.

- Heat will be the primary weather concern this weekend into early next week. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for Saturday through Tuesday. Expect heat indices to reach around 105-110 degrees.

- Any cool down into the end of next week appears to be limited with any weak cold front not doing much to change the airmass that will be in place across the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Current WV satellite imagery along with RAOB data show the Westerlies in a mostly zonal flow regime across southern Canada. A semi-permanent anticyclone continues to remain in place over the western CONUS into the Desert Southwest. Some flattening on the northern flank of this dome of high pressure has allowed for a weak perturbation to transit the northern into central Rockies and has been steadily working over western portions of the area. This, along with return flow and a weak LLJ overnight have allowed for a WAA regime to keep a well developed area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms going as they steadily move east. Mid level lapse rates have fallen below 6 C/km which has coincided with a drop in overall lightning production through the entire night into early morning hours. A few areas over central into north central Kansas experience high rainfall totals earlier last evening into the early overnight period which resulted in a few flood related warnings and advisories. From, here it looks like the high rainfall amounts have been had. Weak isentropic ascent eventually wanes into midday as the upper wave transitions overhead and east of the area into this afternoon. Thus expecting clouds to linger even after the showers come to an end by midday in the early afternoon.

Saturday morning could see some fog form across the area as skies clear tomorrow night and winds remain calm. Wouldn't rule out some areas of patchy dense fog but confidence in coverage is low right now so have held off mention.

Heat then becomes the primary forecast headline into Saturday through Tuesday across the area. The western ridge builds once again and intensifies Sunday and Monday especially with H85 temperatures rising to around 30C which will help push air temp values to near triple digits in some areas with ensemble data and NBM percentiles showing little spread leading to high confidence in heat headlines being necessary once again. Have opted to go with an Extreme Heat Watch at this time due to the duration and intensity of the expected heat. Will likely need 4 days of heat headlines across the entire area or at least most of the area heading into Tuesday. Unfortunately, there appears to be little relief from this heat wave as the cool down only takes heat index values to the upper 90s which may feel cool by comparison into next weekend. Any modified cold front on the easter flank of the semi-permanent western ridge is likely too weak to matter much to change the overall airmass characteristics and likely mainly dry as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Early this morning, showers with a a few isolated thunderstorms continue to work west to east across the area as an upper wave pushes through. Have maintained mostly marginal VFR levels from here through later morning into midday but low cigs may persist into the afternoon period as well with residual moisture lingering behind the upper wave. General clearing trends should take hold by the end of the day into the over night period and if sufficient clearing takes place then possible fog formation may result.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.