textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20% chance for showers late Tuesday and through Tuesday Night. Showers look to be spotty.

- A gradual warming trend is expected through the week.

- There is a 15-35% chance for precipitation this weekend with temperatures remaining mild for late October.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

18Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a broad upper ridge along the gulf coast. This placed southwesterly upper flow across the central plains with a weak wave lifting through north central KS. Some mid level moisture and lift have combined for some elevated showers with mainly trace amounts of moisture reaching the ground. At the surface low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and high pressure along the MS river valley have favored southerly low level flow. However moisture return from the gulf coast has be slow.

For tonight through Wednesday, a second more organized shortwave then today's wave is progged to round the top of the upper ridge over the forecast area Tuesday night. This with some continued isentropic lift and better mid level moisture advection could lead to some isolated elevated showers into Wednesday morning. Mid level lapse rate are forecasts to only be around 6 C/km so have not included a mention of thunder, but wouldn't be surprised if there are a few rumbles of thunder. With the slower moisture return than the models expected and skies clearing out tonight as the wave lifts north of the area, have adjusted MinT grids a little lower closer to MOS guidance thinking there should be reasonable radiational cooling. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to gradually trend warmer a few degrees each day. Overall there is pretty good agreement in the deterministic solutions as well as the ensembles. So have not strayed to far from the NBM.

Upper ridging is progged to set up for the end of the week with no obvious forcing for vertical motion. So the forecast continues to call for dry weather with temps continuing a slight warming trend. For Saturday through Monday, the spread in potential solutions increases quite a bit as models struggle to handle the upper trough coming out of the west. The main idea is for a weak frontal boundary to move into the plains Saturday or Sunday. So some small chances for precip and a cooling trend seem to be a good step and this is shown in the NBM solution. Though the details on when the front impacts the area and it's affect on temps will probably change from day to day until it becomes more obvious how the pattern will evolve.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Dry air in the low and mid levels with little or no low level moisture advection should lead to VFR conditions persisting.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.