textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures nearly 30 degrees above normal for today and Thursday

- A strong cold front moves southward over the state Thursday afternoon and evening, but expected rainfall amounts are low

- Cooler Friday and Saturday before another warm up next week

- Elevated to extreme fire danger is a concern through the weekend with Thursday the greatest concern

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Another few days of very much above normal temperatures today and tomorrow, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s area wide as strong high pressure over the southwest advects a strong warm nose of 850mb temperatures of 21-24C over eastern Kansas. South to southwest winds of 5-15 mph with some afternoon gusts 20-25 mph today become a different story tomorrow, as winds both strengthen early then quickly become strong from the north northwest as the front moves in. Gusts behind the front are a bit stronger in the 30-40 mph range, and while they diminish somewhat later in the evening to 20-30 mph, they continue through the overnight hours and the morning on Friday. Rain chances with the front are primarily over eastern Kansas in the evening Thursday and early morning into Friday, with chance for accumulating rainfall along and south of the turnpike low - generally for less than a quarter inch.

Gusts subside in the afternoon Friday, with highs rising into the mid to upper 50s - which is much closer to the normal highs around 60. Highs on Saturday are forecast around 60 as winds veer around to the south. This sets up warmer return flow for Sunday with highs in the 70s.

While warm advection once again brings highs back up into the 80s Monday and Tuesday, the overall pattern finally takes a shift from hot and dry as the upper high is progged to shift off to the southeast US, and is replaced by troughing over the southwest. This brings better moisture return off the gulf into the plains states and increases available moisture for systems moving through the flow over the Central Plains, and increases chances for rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Winds are primary concern this TAF cycle, with VFR conditions through the period. LLWS should end mid morning as column mixes out. Wind speeds diminish again this evening and may need another LLWS group, but is toward the end of this TAF cycle so will leave for next set of TAFS to evaluate.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Concerns continue for an active several days with regards to fire weather and fire behavior. Impacts of a period of dry, then hot weather are becoming cumulative, as chances for rain until next week are low at best, and only for Thursday evening into Friday morning for a small part of northeast Kansas. Winds begin to rise today and become gusty for Thursday, then strongly shift as the front sweeps across the state through the day. Those winds stay up overnight into Friday. Even though temperatures are cooler for Friday and Saturday, RH recovery is only in the 40-50% range in the overnight hours through Sunday, and falls into the teens to low 20s each afternoon Friday into Saturday, and in the 20-30% range on Sunday. Such low RH tends to exacerbate fire behavior, even as winds diminish. Afternoon wind gusts Saturday and Sunday are forecast in the 20-25 mph range. Overall conditions over the weekend are far from ideal for prescribed burning.

CLIMATE

Updated at 210 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Record High Temperature for March 25

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 91 (1907) 90 Concordia 92 (1907) 91

Record High Temperature for March 26

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1910, 1991) 92 Concordia 86 (1907) 85

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.