textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered storm chances return Wednesday afternoon-evening. An isolated strong storm capable of large hail and gusty winds is possible for portions of north central Kansas.

- Several disturbances translating through the region along with a stalled front will bring several opportunities for scattered showers and storms Thursday evening through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Scattered rain and snow showers associated with an embedded upper vort max is crossing over southeast NE into northern MO this morning. Other than the increasing clouds, northeast Kansas should remain dry today. Mid clouds stick around this afternoon as a nearly stationary front lifts northward, resulting in a range of highs near 60 degrees in far northeast KS, to the low 70s in central KS. There may be a brief period of elevated fire danger for portions of Ottawa and Dickinson counties as southerly winds increase from 15-20 mph sustained. RH values coincidingly fall into the upper 20th percentile in the late afternoon.

Focus shifts to Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front and open shortwave trough enters north central Kansas. CAMs are coming into better consistency with a broken line of showers and storms forming. Wind profilers are not impressive (30-40 kts effective bulk shear) while MUCAPE is generally from 500-1000 J/KG. An isolated stronger storm may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds to 60 mph over portions of north central KS. Confidence begins to wane in where the front is located by Thursday afternoon, which is where another round of showers and perhaps a few strong storms are anticipated. Increasing warm advection from a strengthening low level jet lend to better confidence in widespread precip by Thursday evening where likely pops seem reasonable. PWAT values begin to increase at this time from 1-1.2 inches area wide, sustaining throughout the weekend as southerly moisture increases with the incoming upper low. These values are in the 75th-99th percentile range for April, increasing the probability for locally heavy rainfall. This pattern of overnight convection appears to repeat on Friday - Saturday evenings, perhaps as late as Sunday before the upper low exits to the northeast. Unfortunately, ensemble solutions exhibit high variability in QPF and subsequent areas of lift across the region so while most areas will see at least some much needed rainfall, others could a couple inches of rain by early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR terminals as a passing wave maintains gusty east northeast winds and broken mid clouds overnight. Low probability for MVFR stratus developing over northern KS to impact sites near 12Z, but will monitor trends and amend if needed.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.