textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue overnight across the area. A couple of storms could be strong to severe and produce hail up to 1-1.5" inches in diameter and localized damaging wind gusts.

- Severe storm chances return Friday afternoon and evening with all modes of severe weather possible (large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes). Uncertainty still remains, see discussion below for more details.

- Dry weather returns this weekend with above average temperatures into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Overall, not a ton of drastic changes to severe storm chances in the last 12 hours but let's dig into some of the latest thinking for tonight's and Friday's severe storm risk. The upper low that will bring severe chances to the area still resides over the mountain west. Through the day today, vorticity advection over the central Rockies will increase as the main upper wave takes on more of a negative tilt by early Friday morning. WAA and moisture advection within the southerly low level flow regime will usher in 50-55 degree dewpoints this afternoon and evening, further helping to destabilize the atmosphere. For the remainder of the afternoon, mid to upper 60 degree highs can be expected by the mid to late afternoon, with warmer areas in areas that have scattered out the Cu.

Storm chances increase late this evening and overnight into Friday morning as mid-level energy overspreads the area and isentropic ascent maximizes within a 50-60kt LLJ. Some elevated scattered convection may initially develop across northern Kansas near a speed convergence zone of the LLJ nose. By 12AM - 2AM, convection that had developed along the dryline in TX and OK will move northeast into central KS. Severe parameters by midnight tonight 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear and modest ML lapse rates indicate a multi-cellular storm mode, but cannot rule out a few low-topped supercells given shear profiles. An 850mb warm layer should help to keep most convection elevated, so main hazards with the strongest storms will be large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter). Cannot rule out some localized wind gusts with convection moving out of south-central Kansas, but the wind threat should mainly be confined to central KS.

Attention then quickly turns to Friday's severe weather risk after storms and showers move east of the area by 7-9 AM. All of eastern Kansas is still looking at the chance for widespread strong to severe storms Friday (late afternoon and evening), but there are still some uncertainties with this system. The overall synoptic set- up has not changed much with a negatively-tilted embedded shortwave ejecting into northwestern Kansas with low-level cyclones and troughs extending from north-central KS and south towards western Oklahoma. As the mid-level shortwave ejects into the high central Plains, a 60 knot 500 mb jet will overspread the state by the early afternoon. Closer to the surface, CAM guidance suggests a triple point to develop near the Salina, KS area with a dryline extending south and a cold front draped from Omaha, NE to southwest Kansas. Ahead of these features in the warm sector, 60-65 degree dewpoints will push north into eastern Kansas slowly increasing instability. That said, stratus seems likely to hang around in the warm sector for much of the morning and early afternoon Friday, limiting warming. Temperatures should still push into the upper 60s and low 70s under the WAA pattern, but instability will be on the lower side given the lack of solar insolation. With the potential for stratus holding on into the afternoon, low-level lapse rates will remain fairly weak. Even with some weak forcing with a pre-frontal trough by the later afternoon hours Friday, confidence is not overly high that convection will be able to fire within the warm-sector without a robust source of lift (i.e. cold front/dryline). There is a possibility that some cells do develop but struggle to maintain an updraft due to 700mb warm layers and dry air entrainment. All this said, if a scenario plays out where stratus scatters out more than guidance is suggesting, numerous cells would be more likely to develop with all modes of severe weather possible, but this scenario is not overly likely (10-20% of occurrence). The most likely scenario it would seem would be for a storm or two to develop by the 4-7 PM time range before the cold front moves in from the north and west. Any storms that develop ahead of the cold front will bring the highest risk for large hail (2+ inches) and tornadoes. As the frontal boundary slides into northeast Kansas, it should provide enough lift to generate convection with storms quickly growing upscale and forming a line. Given the deep and low level shear profiles across eastern Kansas Friday evening, cannot rule out a QLCS tornado threat within the cold front convection. These tornadoes would be fairly weak (EF0-EF1). This seems to align with a high shear, low CAPE set-up. That said, damaging winds gusts and hail up to 1 inch in diameter seem to be the main concerns. Storm threat should come to an end by midnight Friday night.

High pressure builds in quickly behind the frontal boundary early Saturday morning ushering in clearer skies and dry conditions for the weekend. CAA will limit warming a bit Saturday afternoon, topping temperatures out in the mid 50s. Low-level flow returns to the south/southwest by Sunday returning above-average temperatures to the area for the early part of next week. Some precipitation chances build back in by Tuesday and Wednesday as a cutoff low moves in from the southwestern US. With the warm and moist airmass paring with shear aloft, this could usher in another chance for strong to severe storms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A break in low cigs has worked into KTOP/KFOE and is likely to continue into Friday morning. KMHK is also expected to have a period of VFR cigs overnight. Scattered storms will continue overnight, but coverage and location keeps confidence low in direct impacts to terminals. Think most showers and storms should be east of terminals by 12z. Gusty south winds increase further after sunrise with gusts of 25-30kts through the day Friday. Additional showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon through the end of the period. Confidence remains low in coverage with this round.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.