textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for Wednesday through Friday, though headlines beyond that time frame may still need to be considered.

- Warm lows in the middle and upper 70s keep record warm minimums in play through Saturday.

- Hot and dry weather persists at least through the holiday weekend, perhaps looking slightly less hot by middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Upper ridge dominates the Central/Southern Plains into much of the southeastern US, while an amplified trough is off the Pacific coast and another upper low tracks across Ontario. A more subtle perturbation is noted off the High Plains, leading to a weak area of low pressure in NE/IA. Tropical Storm Edouard is noted off the coast of TX/LA. The southwest flow plus the ample sunshine under the persistent ridge is leading to another afternoon with temperatures in the upper 90s up to 100 degrees with heat indices a couple of degrees higher. A persistence forecast should do fairly well into Wednesday, although we look to see a bit of an increase in dew points as the tropical system comes further inland and the southerly flow brings that moisture northward. This should especially be the case Thursday and Friday. As such, felt that the 50th percentile of dew points would be more representative than the drier solutions presented in the higher resolution models. Similar temperatures with slightly higher dew points would push us closer to heat indices around 105. Confidence in reaching that criteria is highest Thursday and Friday, and may not be quite as widespread Wednesday. Still opted to join northern and eastern neighbors in a Heat Advisory starting Wednesday given impacts to outdoor activities and risk for heat stress and illnesses even with borderline conditions.

Beyond Friday, the upper ridge looks to retrograde to the west with its center right over the forecast area through the Labor Day weekend. Long-range models start to show some diverging in the solutions, resulting in some variation in how far south the upper ridge will get pushed. With that in mind, high temperatures look to remain in the 90s through the middle of next week. Ensembles show a small range of only a few degrees through the weekend, and a need for additional headlines beyond Friday will need to be considered given the favorable pattern for heat to continue. The range widens slightly into the middle of the week with the varying solutions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions persist. Some gusts at times should continue through the afternoon before winds diminish with sunset. While a 30-35 kt LLJ forms overhead during the overnight hours, LLWS looks pretty marginal, even more so as long as sfc winds stay up. Winds return to around 10-12 kts by the end of this forecast period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 2 Topeka 80, set in 2011 77 Concordia 79, set in 1929 78

September 3 Topeka 77, set in 1939 78 Concordia 80, set in 1947 79

September 4 Topeka 78, set in 2014 76 Concordia 79, set in 1954 76

September 5 Topeka 76, set in 1983 75 Concordia 78, set in 1899 76

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.