textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold today with warming temperatures through the work week.

- Dry forecast continues over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

It's cold out there this morning! As of 2AM, the arctic high pressure center has made its way into far northeastern Kansas, keeping skies mostly clear outside some scattered high clouds. Yesterday's reinforcing shot of cold air came in a bit faster than forecasted and helped to clear out clouds a bit sooner. This initially led to a faster cooling trend across the area. Expect temperatures to bottom out in the mid single digits with areas in far northeastern KS in the low single digits by sunrise this morning. Luckily as the surface high tracks east into the afternoon today, winds shift back to the south and help bring in a touch of warmer air. This paired with ample sunshine should help us recover into the 20s; low 20s northeast and upper 20s towards central KS.

A warmer pattern takes shape by tonight and into Monday as low-level WAA and increasing 500 mb heights build into the central Plains. Expect temperatures Monday afternoon warming into the upper 40s and into the mid to upper 50s by Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, a more amplified pattern builds in from the west as a digging trough enters the central Plains. This should help push a boundary across the area and provide some cooler temperatures than what we will see in the early part of the week. Some precipitation may accompany this wave, but better forcing and moisture should stay east of the area. Beyond this system, quasi-zonal flow is expected to set up across much of the US. This keeps most of the really cold air further north, but that said, high temperature spreads from the NBM are still around 10-12 degrees at this time (25th to 75th percentiles). This is indicating some uncertainty with how south the cold air can make it within the zonal pattern. Regardless, temperatures do not look too far from normal highs and lows for this time of the year in the extended forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Winds remain light from the north through the night under some high clouds, then turn southerly by the afternoon with clear skies.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.