textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s through the rest of the week.

- Dry conditions favored through the end of the week. A storm system may impact some of the region Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

After a day of record-breaking warmth, a cold front will push through eastern Kansas tonight. While we wont see any rain with this front, wind will shift out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures tomorrow will be much closer to what we expect for early February, with highs in the 50s compared to todays 70s.

A weak upper-level wave will pass over the Plains on Thursday. This will bring an increase in cloud cover and a very slight chance for a few sprinkles. However, forecast soundings show very ample dry air in the lower half of the atmosphere, so most of any moisture that falls should evaporate before reaching the surface. No measurable rainfall is expected at this time.

Friday through the weekend, our attention shifts to a more significant storm system currently expected to move into the central U.S. by Saturday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact track of this system, which will determine how much moisture we receive. The ECMWF and GFS keep the track of the storm south and our area dry, while the Canadian and UKMet models bring the low far enough north to bring rain to the area.

Current trends suggest rain is the most likely form of precipitation, if we end up receiving any. As temperatures cool Saturday night, there is a low potential for some snow to mix in with the rain, though ground temperatures remain warm enough that no accumulation would occur.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1042 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Currently a southwesterly low-level jet around 1500 feet with speeds of 40 to 45 KTS are over the terminals producing low-level wind shear of 30 to 35 KTS. As a cold front approaches after 9Z Tue, we should see the stronger LLJ shift east of the terminals and wind shear drop below 30 KTS. Surface winds will become northerly at 8 to 10 KTS by 10Z TUE. Surface winds will increase to 11 to 13 KTS during the mid and late morning hours, with gusts of 20 to 23 KTS through the afternoon hours. Winds will diminish towards sunrise.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.