textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Above-normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days. Monday will be the warmest day; highs could reach 70 degrees!

- Next chance (20-35%) for precipitation comes Tuesday-Tuesday night in the form of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Northwest flow aloft remains over the Central Plains early this morning with an anomalously strong ridge across the Rockies. Low- level winds have remained elevated overnight, keeping the boundary layer somewhat mixed and holding temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. A perturbation diving southeast across the Upper Mississippi Valley will shunt a cold front through the forecast area this morning, although a lack of moisture will keep frontal passage dry. Winds will increase from the north behind the boundary with gusts of 20-30 MPH expected through the day. CAA will keep temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs topping out in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A Canadian high pressure axis extends into the area tonight into Saturday with light winds and clear skies allowing for good radiational cooling and lows falling into the 20s.

Mid-level flow becomes more zonal next week with southerly surface winds returning by Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be back near 60 degrees with even warmer conditions on Monday when highs could eclipse the 70 degree mark! Northern and southern stream shortwaves eject across the Plains on Tuesday, pushing a cold front through the forecast area. Guidance differs in how far north the southern stream wave will track; most recent guidance has shifted higher precipitation chances farther south, but there remains a 20-35% chance for some rain across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional waves moving through the flow lead to low chances for precipitation Wednesday-Thursday, but predictability is low. Cooler, but still above-normal, temperatures are favored Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. A north-northeast LLJ will increase to 45 KTS between 1000-2000 feet after 10Z. This will cause wind shear at the terminals from 10Z through 15Z. After 15Z surface winds will increase to 12 to 16 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS, which will continue through the afternoon hours but diminish towards sunset. There may be a few to scattered stratocu with bases of 3000 feet during the afternoon, which will dissipate towards sunset.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.