textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very High Fire Danger Friday as very low humidities and wind gusts up to 20-25 mph develop by the afternoon. See Fire Weather Discussion for additional details.

- Confidence is increasing in a wintry mess Sunday with Rain, Snow, Freezing Rain and Sleet possible.

- Active weather pattern continues into next week with precipitation chances each day (20-50%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Clearing skies are now common across northeastern Kansas behind the exiting showers that gave the area a few hundredths of rainfall. As temperatures undergo fairly efficient radiative cooling in the next several hours, cannot rule out some patchy fog developing, mainly in low-lying areas. This should quickly burn off after sunrise. For the remainder of the day, mostly sunny skies with a light northwesterly winds will allow for temperatures to warm back into the low 60s across the area leading to a pleasant day. Overnight tonight, surface ridging passes to out south and returns low level back towards the southwest/west. Efficient warming through downsloping flow, ample solar insolation and diurnal mixing through the day Friday will push temperatures into the low to mid 70s across the area with the highest temperatures south of I-70. These warm temperatures and well-mixed BLs will also create an environment suitable for dangerous fire conditions. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details. By Friday night into Saturday, an upper jet streak accompanying a shortwave across the northern Rockies and Plains helps to push a surface boundary into eastern Kansas from the north. There are still timing discrepancies between models with how quickly this frontal boundary pushes towards southern Kansas. The NAM is depicting a slower progression, not bringing the boundary through the area until later Saturday afternoon while the GFS and Euro bringing it through by mid day. This will have a drastic impact on how warm we will get by the afternoon. A faster front will promote highs in the 40s/50s with a slower front in the 60s and 70s. The most likely scenario will be cooler temperatures (40s/50s) for highs across areas closer to the KS/NE border and warmer temperatures (60s/low 70s) south/east- central KS where a later passage of the cold front will occur.

As cooler air filters into the region Saturday night, mid-level energy embedded in quasi-zonal flow advects in from the west. This combined with south/southeasterly 850-700mb winds overriding the stalled surface boundary over Oklahoma will set the stage for a wintry mess of precipitation from early Sunday morning through Sunday night. Current thinking is for a wintry mix line setting up around I-70 with better chances for snow closer to the KS/NE border and better rain chances closer to south-central and southeast Kansas. Within the wintry mix region, forecast soundings hint at ice falling mostly as sleet as the surface cool layer is much larger and robust than the very small warm layer aloft. That said, there will be regions just south of the sleet line that will carry chances for freezing rain as surface cold layers are a bit warmer and closer to freezing. Ensemble probabilities for precipitation type indicate near equal chances for freezing rain, snow, and sleet along the I-70 region from the hours of 9AM to 6PM Sunday. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with this system with the forecast likely to change a bit in the coming days as more higher resolution model guidance filters in, so stay tuned for further updates.

The active pattern continues into next week as precipitation chances of 20-50% persist each day of the week. The driest timeframe seems to be Monday into Tuesday following the exit of the snow from the backside of Sunday's event. After that, chances increase again with an approaching cutoff low from the southwestern US. Persistent southwesterly flow ahead of the cutoff low will usher in ample moisture into the Plains and with lift aloft, scattered to areas of precipitation seem likely for much of the work week. A slow warming trend through the week should take place as WAA within the southwesterly flow returns highs back into the 50s and 60s by Wed/Thur.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1014 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Forecast remains largely on track. Light SHRA may linger slightly into the 06Z time frame but the line of showers continues to advance ESE fairly quickly to start the period. Clearing continues overnight with winds calming. Forecast soundings maintain a shallow saturated layer near the surface with the NAM suggesting better fog potential. With nearly all other solutions still on the shallow depth spectrum, have opted not to go more pessimistic than mention of tempo BR with 4SM vis considering the winds still increase within a few hundred feet off the surface. Clear skies with a light westerly breeze set up into for the balance of the period after around 14Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 247 AM CST Thur Feb 26 2026

Widespread Very High Fire danger will be expected Friday afternoon as very low RH values and gusty southwest/westerly winds develop. Efficient warming will take place by Friday as mostly clear skies and downsloping westerly flow leads to well-mixed BLs (up to 850- 750mb) by the afternoon. This should not just promote temperatures pushing into the mid 70s across the area, but dewpoints mixing out into the low 30s - possibly lower. Afternoon RH values will drop into the 15-28% range with southwest/westerly winds sustained between 10-15 mph and gusting to 20-25 mph. Recent model guidance depicts a 30-40 knot 850 jet across far northeast Kansas that could mix down slightly stronger wind gusts in the late morning and. early afternoon. While winds are not as strong as some fire events, the very dry air will quickly cure fuels by the afternoon making fires difficult to control. By the later afternoon hours, fire danger across north-central KS should begin to decrease a bit as a weak surface trough moves in from the north, weakening winds. Winds will still remain gusty further south and east, not falling below 10 mph until 5-6 PM. RH values will also be slow to recover, not getting above 40% until 8-10 PM.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.