textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot again today with near-record temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 90s.

- Frontal boundary moves through the areas Saturday, returning chances (60-80%) for rain/storms and cooler weather.

- A few storms Saturday afternoon/evening could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main hazards.

- Cooler and active pattern looks to persist into next week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows a large upper ridge over the southern Plains, troughing over the northwestern US with southwesterly flow extending from Baja California to the Dakotas. With most of the mid-level vorticity maxima embedded in the aforementioned southwesterly flow staying well west of eastern Kansas, the area continues to be largely influenced by the upper ridge that remains settled across the southern Plains. This will continue to be the trend today as another afternoon of near-record high temperatures spread across eastern Kansas. Southwesterly flow and efficient diurnal mixing should bring down very warm 850mb temperatures and help for afternoon highs to top out in the mid to upper 90s - close to the NBM 90th percentile. Some low-end PoPs may be realized late this evening across north-central KS, but better chances for widespread precipitation chances remain further out west and north of the area.

More notable change in this pattern looks to come Saturday as a better push of vorticity associated with the trough out west moves over the central Rockies. This should push out a surface trough and front across Kansas Saturday morning and afternoon. Scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms can be expected near the boundary through the morning hours but by the afternoon, thunderstorm activity should become more notable as inhibition decreases. An environment conducive for marginally-severe storms looks to set up across the area, especially near the I-35 corridor. Main hazards given the parameters warrant damaging winds and hail up to 1.25" being the main concerns. Locally heavy rainfall will also pose a small flooding concern given PWATs nearing the 99th percentile for this time of year. Scattered rain chances continue into Sunday as the main trough axis pivots across Nebraska keeping modest mid-level lift and moisture over the region. Outside the precipitation chances, the most notable takeaway with this system as we head into next week will be the cooler and more fall-like temperatures. Highs Monday and Tuesday will likely stay near the low 70s and upper 60s with lows bottoming out near the 50s and low 60s. Precipitation chances should stay out of the area for the most part until low-level ridging moves east and returns southerly flow by Thursday. The extended ensemble guidance depicts frequent waves transgressing the central US and thus keeping temperature spreads in the 70s for the remainder of the month.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR prevails this period. Breezy south-southwest winds this afternoon subside slightly overnight. Marginal LLWS is possible tonight as a 40 kt south-southwesterly LLJ develops, but have not included in TAFs with this update. A few showers could approach terminals early Saturday, but better chances for thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will arrive Saturday afternoon, just after this TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Friday 9/18: Forecast High Record High (year)

Concordia: 97 100 (set in 1895)

Topeka: 97 101 (set in 1925)

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.