textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost possible this morning with isolated to scattered afternoon showers this afternoon.

- Widespread frost possible Saturday morning, mainly for areas north of I-70.

- Rain/Storm chances return early next week with low chances for severe storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Efficient cooling continues to take place this morning as mostly clear skies and light winds have dropped temperatures into the low to mid 40s with some near the KS/NE border into the upper 30s. Areas of frost will likely develop near the KS/NE border. A frost advisory continues in these areas until 8 AM this morning. Zooming out, zonal flow across the Plains has broken down a bit as a weak shortwave embedded in the Great Lakes upper low has pushed into Nebraska. To the south, a Baja California cyclone has kept southwesterly flow across the southern Plains where most appreciable gulf moisture remains trapped. Through the day today, the weak shortwave will push across Kansas and help to push a weak surface trough through the area. Deep diurnal mixing paired with some weak instability in the cloud layer this afternoon should result in isolated to scattered showers as the weak surface trough pushes south towards Oklahoma. Surface ridging builds in from the north by the evening and will again create concern for a widespread frost for areas along and north of I-70 Saturday morning.

Low-level flow returns from the south/southwest by Saturday afternoon that will help to warm temperatures back into the upper 60s and low 70s as heights increase aloft. Sunday and Monday will see further warming as afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 80s will become common. Precipitation chances begin to increase by Sunday evening into early next week as gulf moisture returns to the central Plains. Quasi-zonal flow with embedded mid-level vorticity maxima advecting into the central Plains may be enough to develop thunderstorms by Monday evening. With mid 50 to 60 degree dewpoints possible across the area by Monday afternoon, some stronger storms could become possible. That said, confidence is low in the overall forcing and set up for strong/severe storms at this time. The active pattern appears to persist through Wednesday before ridging builds in by the later week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR TAFs are expected to continue outside of some patchy shallow fog at KTOP over the next hour or so. Winds should remain out of the north/northwest today and into the evening, generally staying below 10 mph. Some light, isolated showers may impact terminals this afternoon, mainly KMHK, but confidence in coverage was low and therefore has been kept out. Any impacts should be minimal with CIGs staying VFR.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ020-KSZ021.