textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures gradually trend up through this week, starting near normal and becoming 10-15 degrees above average by week's end.

- A few isolated showers or sprinkles are possible early this week with better (but still low) rain chances next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

The upper air pattern early this morning depicts a developing low off the Pacific Northwest coast with a couple of weaker shortwaves within broad southwest flow from the Desert Southwest through the Plains region. Scattered high cloud cover is increasing across the state as a result of this shortwave activity. There will probably be little impact from these waves in our area aside from these clouds, though it is worth noting CAMs are showing brief, isolated showers in north central KS this morning. Forecast soundings have enough mid- level dry air that it would seem hard pressed for much, if any, rain to reach the ground, but can't rule out a stray shower or sprinkle for a short time. Temperatures should be similar to or slightly warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Despite the NBM running a bit cool the last two days, opted not to stray from it too much for today given the increase in clouds and decrease in southerly wind. It's a similar story for Tuesday both in terms of temperatures and a brief, low rain chance in the area with shortwave energy still overhead.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the Pacific trough amplifies and digs across the western CONUS, helping to strengthen the ridge over the central US. This favors temperatures warming further as mid-level heights rise, with morning lows in the 50s and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s (which is 10-15 degrees above average for mid- October). There is still very little spread through this time frame, but curiously, highs have trended cooler Thursday and Friday despite good agreement in the ridge axis still being overhead and the low- level wind field increasing with lee troughing ahead of the approaching system. The first lead shortwave looks to lift northeast Friday and keep us dry, with better rain chances coming Saturday. That said, models notably diverge with the evolution of the upper trough by the weekend, leading to more uncertainty with the timing of associated surface fronts and rain chances. As a result, PoPs remain below 50% through the weekend and temperature ranges widen to 10-15 degrees by Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR continues with high clouds and light south to southeasterly winds through the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.