textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy today with elevated fire danger this afternoon.

- There is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms in central KS late this afternoon into early evening. Periodic rain chances remain in the area through the weekend into early next week.

- Near or above average temperatures are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows one upper low along the US-Canada border and another off the Pacific coast. A sfc low has developed in response to the first wave in the SD/NE vicinity with a tightening pressure gradient leading to increasingly gusty south winds. HREF guidance appears overdone in terms of wind gusts when comparing to current observations, but HRRR and RAP guidance indicate a 2-3 hour period this morning when the LLJ mixes down and gusts could reach advisory criteria. Thinking this looks short-lived with the majority of the day bringing gusts between 30-40 mph. This combined with a dry lower troposphere will result in portions of the area seeing elevated fire danger this afternoon even with some of the recent green-up.

The cold front associated with the sfc low will move into central KS during the mid to late afternoon hours. Confidence in storm coverage isn't all that high, as the HRW-FV3 is most robust in developing a line of storms along the boundary whereas the other 00Z CAMs suggest storms are more limited in coverage or struggle to develop much at all. There is a narrow corridor of steep lapse rates and MUCAPE between 300-800 J/kg immediately behind the front with shear around 30 kts, and soundings in this area have an inverted-V profile. Any severe risk would appear to be conditional on if a strong enough updraft can develop despite the drier low levels. CAMs also suggest activity diminishes as we lose surface heating and instability later in the evening. Rain chances increase again slightly overnight into early Thursday with the front stalling out and isentropic lift over the top of it, but that coverage appears limited as well.

Periodic rain chances occur through the end of the week into the weekend as energy ejects out ahead of the main Pacific trough. Additionally, moisture transport increases into Thursday and Friday with more of an influence from the LLJ Thursday night, which should provide a more favorable opportunity for rainfall in the area. Some locally heavy rain is possible with Pwat values pushing the high side of climatology as well. The front pushes south a bit on Friday, keeping temperatures cooler and perhaps allowing for some dry time. Cluster analysis shows wider variability in how the trough to our west will evolve into early next week, leading to lower predictability in timing and location of the best chances for showers and storms later in the forecast period. Still, early indications are that instability and shear parameters may align more favorably for a severe weather setup somewhere in the region, so this will bear monitoring as we go forward.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR continues with winds as the main aviation concern. Southerly winds have been increasing west to east through the night and are now above 10 kts at all sites. Gusts should notably increase around 14z as the LLJ starts to mix down, staying between 25-35 kts for the rest of the morning and afternoon. Winds become lighter after sunset. A cold front may develop scattered TS early this evening, but anything that forms is favored to remain west of terminals, so have left out mention for now. There may be another possibility of scattered TS late in the period, but chances of impacting terminals remains too low for mention at that time as well.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.