textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy this afternoon with a Red Flag Warning in place until 7pm

- Briefly cooler Monday, then warmth returns mid-week along with opportunities for elevated fire danger

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Mean westerlies aloft cover the northern two-thirds of the CONUS, having pushed the ridge down to the far southwestern US. Sfc cold front has made its way through the entire area, leaving behind gusty northerly winds in its wake. Conditions overall have been borderline for wind advisory and could make an argument either way to have one or not have one, with some occasional gusts up to 45mph. Opted to keep the headline going as is without making changes to timing or area. The main concern is the impact these winds will have on any fires this afternoon (see fire discussion for more details). Otherwise, expect the peak of the winds to be early/mid-afternoon at this point, gradually decreasing as we go through the rest of the day and especially this evening with sfc high pressure building southward.

Monday brings relatively cooler temperatures with the cooler air mass in place, though highs in the mid to upper 50s are actually close to average for this time of year. The near normal temperatures don't last long, however. The upper ridge then looks to expand back north as we head into mid-week. This leads to high temperatures back to the 70s on Tuesday and 80s, possibly a few 90s, on Wednesday. Timing of a cold front moving south on Thursday does still lead to some uncertainty with temperatures then, particularly for northern KS. A faster progression would lead to northern locations being on the cooler side of the range in the ensemble guidance, with greater spread in those areas. East central KS may still have enough time to warm into the 80s ahead of the boundary, but there is plenty of time for that to change in the next few days. Along with that frontal boundary comes low chances for precipitation Thursday night into Friday, but that will depend on moisture quality as well. QPF amounts look light in most solutions that have precip at all.

Outside of any precip, temperatures Friday cool back to near seasonal normals. This again looks brief with some warming into next weekend, though ensemble clusters vary on the strength of the ridge by this point, which leads to more uncertainty on exactly how warm it will be.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. North winds at 15 to 20 KTS, with gusts of 24 to 30 KTS will continue through 3Z to 4Z MON. The winds should diminish through the remainder of the night and then gradually veer to the east Monday morning, then southeast by late Monday afternoon. Winds tomorrow will remain under 10 KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

Updated at 231 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7pm today. Winds will be at their strongest this afternoon, sustained 20-30mph with most gusts between 35-40mph but a few gusts to 45mph will be possible at times for the next couple of hours. They should gradually decrease through the late afternoon and evening with some 20-25mph gusts persisting after sunset, then becoming lighter late tonight into early Monday. RH values likely bottom out around 30-35% this afternoon before recovering above 40% after 8-9pm.

Elevated fire danger may return again Wednesday and Thursday with the return of warmer temperatures and low humidity. Early indications are that at least parts of the area could see RH fall to near or below 20% both days with more wind on Thursday. The timing of the cold front that day will play an important role in the timing of wind shifts and in how much warmth everyone will see, thus impacting RH.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.