textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Intermittent showers and thunderstorms through Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall can't be ruled out though severe weather potential is quite low, rising a bit Thursday night.
- Not as hot today through Friday. Cooler yet this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s, and only isolated showers noted on radar, with most locations remaining dry through early evening.
CAMs continue to show a line of showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight into early Wednesday morning along the nose of a developing low-level jet, generally along and south of a line from Belleville to Manhattan, Topeka and Ottawa. Severe storms are not favored with a decoupled boundary layer and lack of shear, but occasional gusty winds are possible due to precip loading and stronger downdrafts potentially pushing through the inversion. Additionally, heavy rain is possible with PWATs in excess of 2.25 inches and potential training of thunderstorms. While flooding is not widely expected with less focused lift and a more scattered storm mode, training of storms could lead to some localized flooding.
Beyond tonight, guidance keeps highs near seasonal normals in the upper 80s to near 90 through the remainder of the work week with periodic low-end showers and thunderstorm chances as weak disturbances ride northwest flow aloft. A stronger cold front is favored to swing through Thursday night into Friday. This is likely our best chance at more widespread rain and stronger storms.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Main aviation concern continues to be chances for showers and storms to impact terminals early Thursday morning. Recent guidance has trended later with convection, but overall confidence in location and timing remains on the low side. Have maintained a PROB30 group for now, although chances appear higher at KMHK than KTOP/KFOE. Outside of any precipitation, VFR conditions are expected.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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