textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold wind chills of -15 to -22 degrees tonight into Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through noon Monday.

- Gradually warming through Wednesday, then colder Thursday through the end of the week.

- Dry conditions persist through at least Thursday with only low (10-15%) chances for snow on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

A mid-level perturbation is diving south across the central CONUS this afternoon with a 1038mb surface high pressure centered across the Northern Plains. A very cold airmass remains in place which, along with the fresh snowpack, has lead to a slow warm up even with mostly sunny skies. Highs will top out in the low teens with a light wind keeping wind chills in the -5 to +5 degree range. The aforementioned mid-level wave continues it's southward progression this evening and overnight, although a lack of moisture will keep the passage of this wave dry for northeast Kansas. Cloud coverage could reach far enough east to impact the area and creates some uncertainty in how low temperatures will reach tonight. Nonetheless, confidence is high in lows falling below zero area-wide; record lows at both TOP and CNK could be in jeopardy. Light northwest winds will create wind chills of -15 to -23 degrees overnight into Monday morning. There is at least a low potential for fog to develop given the snowpack, but think elevated low-level winds will largely preclude development.

After a very cold start Monday, southwesterly surface winds will strengthen with gusts of 20-30 MPH through the day, aiding to warm temperatures into the 20s Monday afternoon. The breezy conditions will make it feel colder, though, with wind chills mainly in the single digits through the day. Northwest winds aloft hold through the remainder of the week, keeping temperatures below-normal. Temperatures warm slightly by Wednesday when highs are forecast to eclipse the freezing mark. A perturbation moving through the northwest flow will shunt a cold front through Wednesday night into Thursday, knocking temperatures back down into the 20s for Thursday. A Canadian high pressure builds in Friday, leading to even colder temperatures with highs generally in the teens Friday afternoon. NBM precipitation chances are low (10-15%) with these passing fronts and mid-level waves, although 20-25% of the LREF members have measurable precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 508 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conditions are likely to hold through the period with a few clouds moving overhead tonight into early morning. A few low clouds are likely to form above the snowpack after sunrise into midday. Winds back to the SW overnight and increase through the morning into the afternoon period. There is low potential for ground fog to form if clouds passing overhead are thin enough and winds calm into the sunrise time frame. Only expecting MIFG at this point so have not mentioned fog due to low confidence.

CLIMATE

Updated at 246 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Record Low Temperature Jan 26 Forecast Low Topeka -10, set in 1904 -9 Concordia -10, set in 1902 and 1904 -7

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.