textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm until Thursday when the next chance for thunderstorms arrives, including the potential for severe storms.

- Cooler Friday into early next week with off-and-on chances for rain. Highest chances (60-70%) come Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Shortwave ridging is shifting east into the Plains this morning ahead of a closed low approaching the western US coast. A tight pressure gradient has remained over the forecast area overnight, leading to elevated surface winds which has limited diurnal cooling. Once mixing commences this morning, gusty southwest winds will quickly warm temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon.

Mid-level ridging holds through Wednesday, supporting dry conditions with above-normal temperatures before the aforementioned closed upper low ejects across the Plains Wednesday night into Thursday. The best forcing with this wave will likely reside north of the forecast area initially, but large-scale ascent increases Thursday afternoon/evening as the southern periphery of the wave ejects across the Central Plains. Model soundings suggest low stratus builds in Thursday morning with a stout capping inversion present through at least mid afternoon. There could be some elevated showers or storms Thursday morning, but not expecting any severe weather given weak instability and shear. A dryline advances into central Kansas by Thursday afternoon with moderate instability and sufficient, although modest, shear in place ahead of this feature to support strong to severe storms. Key factors that will dictate the severe risk Thursday afternoon/evening remain uncertain, including how long the cap will hold through the day, how long stratus will linger, how far east the dryline advances, and how fast the cold front sweeps through the area. The cap may hold through the afternoon and preclude any convective development until better forcing arrives with a cold front late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. IF storms are able to form during the afternoon or early evening, they could be severe and produce large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Confidence in this scenario is low at this time. Convection is most likely to develop once the stronger forcing arrives along the cold front, with storms likely to grow upscale into a line of storms and pose a damaging wind risk. A strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening elongates the low-level hodograph, supporting the threat for mesovorticies to form along any line segment that does evolve. There are a lot of details that still need to be ironed out in the coming days, so be sure to stay up to date with the latest!

A cooler and more seasonable airmass moves in behind the boundary for Friday through the weekend. Perturbations moving through the zonal flow keep some low chances for precipitation in the forecast Friday-Saturday with a stronger wave lifting northeast across the Plains Sunday into Monday, bringing higher (60-70%) chances for showers and storms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions continue. Surface winds at KTOP/KFOE have relaxed to some extent, but think winds increase overnight with at least intermittent gusts. This would mitigate LLWS concerns, but expect some low-level turbulence. Southwest winds remain gusty through the day Tuesday before gusts likely drop off again after sunset. There is a signal for some MVFR stratus to advect towards terminals Tuesday night, but this would likely occur after 06z.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.