textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Storm expected Friday evening into Sunday. Two main rounds of snow Friday night and Saturday night, with a lull in between.

- Total snowfall of 4-8" expected along and south of Interstate 70, where Winter Storm Warning has been issued. Slightly lower amounts of 2-5" expected towards Nebraska border, where Winter Weather Advisory has is in place.

- Very cold temperatures will occur alongside the winter storm. Wind chills as low as -20 expected Saturday morning and again Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Calm this afternoon ahead of the weekend winter storm. Light winds and mostly sunny skies are in place ahead of the main cold front just beginning to cross into Kansas from Nebraska. The front isn't super sharp, but north winds will steadily pick up behind it this evening, with colder air steadily moving in. By sunrise, expecting temperatures to range from 5 to 15 degrees across the area. Wind chills also fall below zero area-wide, down to around -15 degrees near the Nebraska border. Winds gradually become less gusty over the day Friday as high pressure to our north becomes closer, but even the lighter northeast winds will provide persistent CAA into Sunday. This, coupled with cloud cover, will keep temperatures in the low teens or colder the entire weekend. Wind chills look to be coldest Saturday and Monday mornings, at around -15 to -20, but stay around or below zero the entire weekend.

Turning attention to the snow side of things, clouds will thicken throughout the day on Friday as troughing begins to deepen over the Rockies and low-level flow becomes more easterly. This will set up a period of weak but persistent isentropic ascent that will move east across Kansas Friday evening and night. The usual mesoscale uncertainty exists with exact placement, but overall confidence is rather high for this first phase of the event. Expecting to see one or two bands of light snow move across northeast Kansas overnight into Saturday morning. Model guidance keeps frontogenesis and isentropic ascent fairly weak, so remain slightly skeptical on QPF above 0.25" through Saturday morning. However with ratios of 15-20:1 (potentially higher within a band of better vertical motion), even a broad 0.1-0.25" of precipitation would result in a widespread 2-4". Can't rule out some locally higher amounts wherever a persistent band does set up. Behind this initial frontogenesis/isentropic ascent, there does appear to be a bit of a lull for later Saturday morning into the evening. Snow may or may not completely pause, but should at least lessen in rates for a few hours.

The more uncertain phase of the event comes Saturday night into Sunday morning as the main upper trough shifts east and an organized 850 mb low lifts into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Confidence is lower in the amplitude of this low and the extent of deformation band precipitation to the northwest of its track. A few outlier pieces of guidance (NAM and RRFS) depict a slower, stronger low and more widespread moderate to heavy snow Saturday night. But the majority of guidance limits additional QPF to another 0.1-0.25", heaviest across east-central KS closest to the low track. This would support another 2-4" of snow given continued high SLRs. Combining the two phases to the storm, totals remain in the 4-8" across much of the area along and south of I-70. So confidence is high enough to go with a Winter Storm Warning for this area. Slightly lesser totals are expected closer to the Nebraska border where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. As mentioned earlier, there are opportunities for some locally heavier totals with both rounds, meaning it's not out of the question these totals are slightly on the low side. But a review of past climatology shows very few events with more than 6" of snow with such cold temperatures across our area, thus would like to see a bit more consistency in model guidance before trending to any higher amounts.

Beyond this weekend, temperatures slowly moderate. But we stay underneath northwest flow aloft, and snow cover should further slow any warmup. Highs stay in the 20s to low 30s as a result. Low temperatures will be heavily dependent on winds and cloud cover, but the snowpack in place should promote favorable radiational cooling. Particularly Monday morning, when lows over eastern KS could fall to around -10 if skies stay clear. No notable precipitation chances, though can't rule out some light snow chances mid-week with a weak clipper type system.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

This period is expected to remain mostly VFR with changes coming mainly late in the period when -SN will likely need to be introduced into the 06Z forecast period. Expect mid to eventually lower level clouds to progressively thicken with much colder air becoming established across all terminals for multiple periods. Winds will continue to increase during the overnight period and remain gusty through part of the day tomorrow before becoming more steady late in the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to noon CST Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036- KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to noon CST Monday for KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.