textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms - an isolated severe storm or two tonight - remain in the forecast through Friday.

- Heat builds once again into and through this weekend lasting into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The primary upper level features remain slow to evolve over the CONUS with a broad cyclonic flow regime in place stretching from the Great Lakes back through the northern Rockies. Over the Desert Southwest a weak anticyclone remains with subtropical moist plume noted across northern Mexico into the Baja region. Across the local area, a weak modified frontal boundary has very slowly been being pushed southeast across the area by a weak upper level shortwave rounding the base of the broader cyclonic flow.

This frontal zone remain the focus for much of the next 12 to 18 hrs across the area. A few breaks in the clouds have resulted this afternoon and overall the low ceilings have lifted through the day with general warming of the BL and then also slightly drier air slowly being advected into the area from Nebraska well behind the front. This should remain the trend into the overnight period. However, a few strong to possibly a severe storm or two may be possible over mainly east-central areas but one or two could form along I-70 this evening into early overnight over central Kansas areas once the LLJ becomes active. Overall, forecast soundings do have some steep mid-level lapse rates and the shear within the layer of instability could support a few strong storms that persist long enough to develop hail that cold be around quarter size. Wind may become a hazard with early storms but appears to be an overall low risk. Brief heavy rain mainly over east-central areas may cause areal flooding if storms are slow moving enough. At this point, not expecting major flooding issues but not zero risk either with PW values approaching 2 inches at across parts of east-central into far northeast Kansas areas. This overall threat generally lasts from this evening through part of the overnight period before the LLJ veers and storms should then focus south and east of the area.

Thursday night and Friday morning could see more chances for showers and storms with another weak embedded shortwave working through the upper pattern but the base of the broader trough should shift east with the better ascent focused east of the general area. Still, a weak lee trough with nocturnal LLJ may support overnight showers and embedded storms late Thursday night into early Friday morning.

The heat becomes the focus through the weekend into Monday with the hottest days trending into Sunday/Monday. Can't rule out later heat headlines being needed. But right now, generally good agreement in the western CONUS ridge spreading east into the area appears on track. Some ensemble data suggest H85 temps from 25-30C range set up across the area which if no storms end up moving into the area then expect generally clear enough conditions that insolation and dry adiabatic mixing will push surface temps to the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in low to mid 70s again will yield heat index values around 103-105F degrees over at least part of the area Sunday and Monday. Still too much uncertainty in the overall setup due to the northeastern flank of the broader ridge could be impacted by nocturnal storm systems moving through portions of the central Plains into the mid and upper MS Valley regions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Expect some limitations to dominate this forecast, with low ceilings common. Conditions look to settle into MVFR soon with convective activity moving off to the east, but confidence is high enough to increase to TEMPO TSRA around 05Z as the low-level jet sets up. CB bases look relatively high but IFR impacts in TS are possible. Stratus should return after convection ends and if it ends earlier than anticipated, IFR levels could develop. There is some uncertainty on when VFR conditions will return, though it could be before 00Z Friday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.