textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered storms may develop later this afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds being the main hazards.

- Another round of storms will be possible across east-central KS late Tonight. However, the latest guidance shows that the storms may be south of the area. Storms late Tonight may cause damaging winds gusts and brief heavy rainfall.

- Mostly dry conditions are expected Saturday and into next week with temperatures building back into the mid 90s by the late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis showed a low amplitude upper trough across eastern NE and eastern KS. WV Satellite loop, shows MCV/VORT MAX over southeast NE. A broad upper ridge extended from southern CA, east into far west TX.

The 17Z surface map showed a cold front extending across northwest MO, southwest across northeast KS, then southwest into northwest OK. Elevated showers and storms continue across the northern counties, north of CWA. These storms will not be severe with only lightning as the only hazard.

Today through Saturday:

Later this afternoon, if temperatures warm up to around 90 degrees, a few surface based thunderstorms may develop across northeast and east central KS. There may be enough convergence along the boundary combined with weak ascent around the MCV/Vort max, shifting east- southeast across the area. MLCAPEs will be 1000-2000 J/kg and the effective shear may increase to near 30 KTS, so a few storms may be severe. Given DCAPEs around 1100 J/KG, isolated damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, unless one of the discrete storms can obtain mid level rotation for large hail. If Max Ts stay in the mid 80s, the CAP will probably prevent storms from developing this afternoon. I don't think the boundary is oriented along the mean storm motion, so I doubt that any organized severe storm could produce a brief and weak tornado when interacting with the surface boundary.

This evening a complex of severe storms will develop across southwest KS, then move east across southern KS/northern OK. This complex of storms may produce damaging wind guest and heavy rainfall. If the northern edge of this severe storm complex shift a bit farther north, then the southern counties of the CWA may see the potential for damaging wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall. Most CAMs, show the complex of storms remaining south of the CWA.

There may be a few showers across the southeast counties Saturday morning. The surface front will push south into northern OK. Highs will only reach the mid to upper 80s. The H5 ridge across the southwest US will amplify northward across the central Rockies Saturday into Saturday night.

Saturday night through Monday:

The H5 ridge will gradually build northeast across SD and the surface front will become stationary across northern TX. Expect dry conditions with pleasant temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Monday night through Friday:

The H5 ridge, centered across SD, will slowly retrograde southwest into western NE. High temperatures will gradually warm into the mid 90s by the end of the workweek. Deeper mixing will keep afternoon dewpoints in the 65-70 degree range. Therefore, heat indicies wil only be 3 to 4 degrees higher than the ambient temperatures. Friday afternoon may have the highest afternoon heat indices around 100 degrees across east central KS and mid to upper 90s elsewhere across the CWA.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The BKN MVFR stratus of 2200 feet across KFOE and KTOP this morning, should scatter after 18Z. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop around the terminals during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Most shorter range models show thunderstorms late Tonight remaining south of the terminals.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.