textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Thunderstorms approach the area from the north this morning. A few strong wind gusts could occur as storms move in.

-Periodic shortwaves in the northwest flow bring additional chances for rain tomorrow and early in the workweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

At 07Z, there were two areas of thunderstorms on regional radar, one in western/central KS and another in north-central Nebraska. The storms in north-central Nebraska should continue to track southeast with the mean 850-300mb wind. Based on the current storm movement, storms could enter far northern Kansas by 11Z. Forecast RAP/HRRR soundings at that time show around 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE and around 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Thus, storms should be able to maintain strength to move into the area and continue southeast this morning. A few strong wind gusts of 50-60 mph could occur with the strongest updrafts. Rain/storms exit the area late this morning, leaving us with partly cloudy skies and light winds for the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday with highs generally in the mid 80s.

The upper pattern won't change much this weekend or early next week, and continues to feature a large ridge centered over New Mexico with northwest flow over our region. Periodic shortwaves in the northwest flow will bring chances for rain and storms, with most guidance showing the next notable wave moving over northeast KS tomorrow afternoon. Forecast sounding show some mid-level lift associated with the wave, however, there appears to be a layer of dry air beneath H7 and fairly weak low and mid level flow. Additionally, earlier cloud cover looks to limit instability. Have kept POPs between 20-30 percent. Severe weather is not expected. Scattered storms could then redevelop Sunday night within an area of isentropic ascent in eastern KS.

Temperatures warm slightly for Monday and Tuesday, but stay around climatological normals. The next chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night and early Wednesday with another mid-level shortwave. A weak cold front associated with a surface low near the Great Lakes also looks to move through the area on Wednesday, although temperatures and the main upper level pattern do not look to change much through mid-week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Have included a TEMPO group with the 12Z TAF update as a batch of rain and storms track southward toward airports early this morning. The most likely timeframe for TS impacts is 13Z to 16Z. Precipitation chances then decrease, leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Gusty winds of 25 to 30 kts are possible near convection and rain showers, otherwise, winds will be light at less than 10 kts today.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.