textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms likely tonight. Isolated to scattered severe storms remain possible late this afternoon and this evening with large hail and damaging winds.

- Cool and cloudy Friday with some showers.

- Warmer this weekend into the middle of next week with several chances for more thunderstorms, some possibly severe mainly Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Moisture advection near and north of the surface front over extreme northern Kansas continues to support high-based convection early this afternoon. This activity, and the lack of much forcing along the front, lead to some uncertainty in how late afternoon and evening convection potential transpires. Other than interference from this precipitation, the setup isn't much different than earlier expectations, with moderate instability in decent mid-level lapse rates despite dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s and deep-layer shear around 35 knots. Most early-morning model output produces near all deeper convection north of the boundary and this could easily be the case based on a less pristine warm sector. The front looks to settle north of the area late this afternoon, and with high cloud bases, expect the main storm concerns to be wind and hail initially then hail into the late evening. Storm motions may be parallel enough to the boundary to bring some locally heavy rain early, but pushing of the front from outflow and the northern Plains upper wave should keep storm residence area somewhat limited, with the front south of the CWA by mid-morning Friday. Deep low stratus and some scattered precip should keep temps much cooler Friday.

Moisture return Friday night into early Sunday should lead to more showers and storms, though limited instability should keep a severe threat in check. Southwest upper flow brings a weak wave or two through late Sunday into Monday night with minor concern for some dryline convection Sunday and more so Monday, but greater potential looks to come around Tuesday when the upper wave may emerge from the Southwest. Timing differences remain notable at this range and instability and shear Sunday through Tuesday is not impressive -- LREF probabilities of at least 1000 J/kg with at least 30 knots of shear are less than 50 percent. Clouds and precip may keep highs around 70 in some places this weekend with warmer conditions Monday into at least Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

High-based showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move east-northeast from central into northeast Kansas and see little reason this won't continue for at least several more hours. Main concerns still on track to come after 00Z as more robust convection looks more likely though aforementioned activity leads to some uncertainty. Have increased to TEMPO for TSRA when potential is highest though timing confidence is not high. Guidance is very consistent in IFR ceilings moving in behind the front for the latter third of the forecast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.