textproduct: Topeka

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Small (20 percent) chance for very light precipitation north late tonight into Thursday morning.

- Dry beyond midday Thursday with cool weekend nights though warming afternoon highs this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Skies should continue to clear into this evening as the old upper low makes slow northeast progress over the upper Mississippi Valley. This system isn't quite done with the local area yet however as its southwest flank rotates through late tonight into early Thursday with minor height falls occurring. Moisture and lift may be enough for some very light rain or drizzle near the Nebraska state line. Southern areas should see some increase in cloud too as a weakening upper trough shifts southeast out of the central Rockies and into the Southern Plains. Precipitation with this still looks to stay to the south. Another modest cold frontal passage with the aforementioned wave keeps highs in the mid to upper 50s Thursday with a slow modification of this nearly stagnant airmass into early next week under split nondescript flow aloft with highs back around 70 by Monday. Many locations that have not yet seen a fall freeze could do so this weekend with light winds and clear skies dominating.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1006 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR favored through tomorrow morning, then MVFR (potentially IFR) CIGs move in from east to west late morning. Some light patchy fog has developed this evening with light wind and moisture at the surface. Minimal impacts are anticipated at the terminals, but fog may be dense enough at times to restrict vsby. Tomorrow, a low stratus deck will slowly move from east to west during the late morning and into the early afternoon. How low and how far west this stratus gets is a bit uncertain at this time. Therefore, kept CIGs in MVFR and only at the TOP terminals, but IFR conditions are not out of the question and it could make it as far west as KMHK.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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