textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Isolated river flooding is possible in areas that received several inches of rain.

-Some dense fog could develop tonight/early Sunday morning where skies begin to clear.

-Temperatures warm to near record highs early next week.

-Elevated fire danger is expected at least Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

At midday, we are starting to see precipitation taper off for much of the area with water vapor showing a dry slot moving in from the southwest. Grounds have become quite soggy following the earlier rainfall. Radar estimates show a swath of 3.0 to 4.0 inches from central Lyon County eastward through southern Franklin County and northern Anderson County. Several rivers in those areas are rapidly increasing, so watch for updated information about possible river flooding this afternoon and evening.

This evening, winds shift to the north as low pressure passes to the east. Winds turn lighter and skies begin to clear in north-central KS as surface high pressure then builds in from the southwest tonight. Given the wet ground, fog development seems like a strong possibility, especially where some clearing occurs. HREF generally shows a 40-60% chance for less than 1 mile visibility by sunrise Sunday for a large portion of the forecast area. Once fog clears, temps should rebound quickly tomorrow afternoon into the low 60s.

A strong WAA pattern resulting from southerly low level flow and increasing 1000-500mb thickness will send temperatures soaring early next week. Temps on Monday are expected to top out in the upper 60s before we make a run at another record high on Tuesday as temps reach the low to mid 70s! Elevated fire danger conditions become a concern as a tight pressure gradient sets up on Tuesday and afternoon RH drops to less than 30 percent in central KS. Another concerning day will be Wednesday with much lower RH, but slightly lighter winds (see more details in the fire section below).

A surface boundary looks to move through Tuesday night as a deep surface low passes north of the area. A few models generate very light QPF along the front but have kept POPs low (10-15%). Models show more notable differences on timing, location and evolution of the next system late in the week, so confidence is not high on precipitation chances during that timeframe. There is higher confidence, however, that temperatures will be quite a bit cooler late in the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 516 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

IFR stratus gradually exits west to east this evening, albeit some uncertainty in timing given the latest models delaying stratus clearing at KTOP/KFOE until closer to 06Z. This will determine when and extent of denser fog that develops aft 10Z with highest probabilities for less than LIFR visibilities at KMHK where stratus clears earlier in the evening. Weak low level winds should allow any fog that develops to persist through late morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Updated at 200 PM CST SAT Feb 14 2026

Partners should be alerted to a rapidly evolving fire weather threat for Tuesday through Thursday (recent rainfall is not likely to help). The combination of unseasonably warm temperatures, deep mixing, and strong south-southwest winds will rapidly dry out fuels. Despite the wetting rains tonight and tomorrow, the dormant vegetation will cure quickly, creating a setup for elevated to critical fire conditions Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

Relative humidity falling into the 20-30% range and sustained wind of 20-30 mph with gusts approaching 45 mph are possible Tuesday afternoon. While wind speeds may be slightly less on Wednesday, humidity may be the lowest of the week, potentially less than 20% (trends continue to lower RH). RH drops to between 20-30% area wide on Thursday with another increase in winds. Thus, all three days will feature elevated fire danger. Stay tuned to the latest forecast for updated information.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.