textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, record to near-record temperatures continue into Monday across the area.

- More active pattern enters the central US Tuesday afternoon with chances for precipitation through Thursday (60-80%) and possibly into the weekend.

- More seasonable temperatures are forecast to return late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery shows multiple cyclones across the CONUS with one from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias over the southeastern US and the others towards the west coast - one digging into the PNW and the other still as tropical storm Rachel that continues to approach the SoCal region. Over the central US, southwesterly flow dominates the region ahead of the troughing over the western CONUS and continues to usher in warm air from the southwest and keep temperatures above-average across the Plains. Expect conditions this afternoon to reflect the synoptic features as efficient BL mixing helps to bring down warm 925 and 850 mb temperatures. Highs topping out in the low 90s will be common. Similar conditions persist into Sunday and again Monday. As the remnants of Isaias moves towards the east coast and mid-level ridging amplifies between the western trough, temperatures across central and eastern Kansas should push into the low to mid 90s Monday - approaching records.

A more active pattern should begin to approach from the west by Tuesday as an increase in PVA over the central Rockies returns upper level forcing and moisture to the Plains. A few shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly flow can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday that could help to push a surface boundary through the area and increase widespread PoPs. There are hints that some cooling aloft Tuesday afternoon ahead of the surface boundary could create an environment for strong to severe storms. That said, confidence in widespread strong storms at this time is low due to uncertainty in how all the parameters will line up. By Wednesday and Thursday, long range ensemble and deterministic guidance begins to deviate on upper level cyclone solutions as the Euro cuts off the western trough and begins to retrograde the upper low back towards the southwestern US while the GFS phases the cutoff low with a digging trough over the northern Plains. Both solutions depict decent upper-level lift through Wednesday and Thursday and with the surface boundary likely stalling across eastern Kansas, widespread PoPs should persist across eastern Kansas. Deviations between the long range guidance are fully notable by Friday and the weekend with the GFS bringing a very strong long-wave trough through the Plains while the Euro keeps the trough well north and east of the Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions will continue in a dry lower troposphere with significant boundary mixing through the period. Only minor directional change under the returning nocturnal low-level jet suggests more of a turbulence setup versus wind shear. Main challenge is onset and magnitude of winds with some gusts around 30 knots possible during daytime mixing Sunday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Record High Temperature Information:

October 11 Current Record Forecast ---------------------------------------------- Topeka 94, set in 1975 91 Concordia 94, set in 1975 90

October 12 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 93, set in 1899 and 2024 95 Concordia 93, set in 1899 95

October 13 Current Record Forecast ---------------------------------------------- Topeka 91, set in 1975 90 Concordia 90, set in 1975 84

Record Highest Minimum Temperature Information:

October 11 Current Record Forecast ---------------------------------------------- Topeka 68, set in 1928 65 Concordia 70, set in 1928 67

October 12 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 68, set in 1890 and 1899 71 Concordia 67, set in 1975 73

October 13 Current Record Forecast --------------------------------------------------------- Topeka 69, set in 1962, 1968, and 1975 67 Concordia 70, set in 1920 63

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.