textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms possible this evening, mainly towards central Kansas. Wind/hail the main hazards.

- Better chance for severe storms Sunday into Sunday night. Still a fair amount of uncertainty, but large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all possible.

- Cold front likely pushes Monday's severe weather risk just to our east, with cooler temperatures for the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Will focus on the severe weather potential over the next few days, as this appears to be the main impactful weather across the next week. Currently, surface observations show a sub 1000 mb surface low across southeast CO as longwave troughing remains dominant over the western CONUS. A frontal boundary stretches northeast from the low into south-central Nebraska. The surface low drops southeast towards the Red River today, pushing the boundary south as a cold front. This will likely serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorm development towards central Kansas this afternoon, given a weakly destabilizing atmosphere as temperatures rise into the 70s ahead of the front. Shear looks somewhat weak, at 25-30 kts, but with a veering wind profile it's plausible that a few storms become more organized and pose a severe threat. This would be most likely closest to the cold front across north-central Kansas, though some wind threat could persist farther east if any longer lived cluster of storms evolves. Can't completely rule out a tornado near the front given plentiful near surface vorticity, or with any cell that stays discrete later into the evening as the low-level jet intensifies. But for the most part, weaker low-level shear looks to keep large hail around 1" and isolated damaging winds as the main hazards.

For Sunday, a stronger upper low off the California coast will phase with the main western trough and lift northeast towards the Four Corners region. This will evoke stronger lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains, with strengthening surface flow allowing moisture to stream northward. The strongest 500 mb height falls do not approach eastern KS until late Sunday night into Monday morning, with heights Sunday evening staying largely neutral. As such, there is still a fair degree of uncertainty with how convection will develop across the region. Some guidance hints at storms developing over northeast KS Sunday afternoon as 700 mb WAA strengthens ahead of the system. Increasing instability and deep layer shear would support some severe risk with these, mainly wind and hail but with backed surface winds supporting some tornado potential. The better risk for severe thunderstorms though looks to arrive Sunday evening and into the overnight hours. Not focusing much on CAMs at this range, given large spread in output at 48+ hours out. The overall synoptic pattern though supports the severe weather concern. The track of the surface low should place the strongest pressure falls right across our area, providing favorable forcing for ascent. Additionally, strong WAA and moisture advection should keep the thermodynamic environment favorable into the overnight hours. Thus initial convective development over western/central KS appears to have a favorable environment to stay maintained into eastern KS, whether in the form of more of a line or discrete supercells. Still tough to say how widespread coverage will be, but do think the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will last well into the night. Do have some concern about strong tornado potential during the mid to late evening as the low-level jet strengthens and before ML CIN increases too much, though this would be contingent on a semi-discrete supercell persisting. Plenty of time for details to come more clear, but certainly a setup to watch.

By mid-day Monday, a vast majority of guidance indicates the dryline will be east of the area. This will keep the main severe weather threat east of us as well. However still keeping an eye on a couple of low-probability scenarios that could allow a bit of a severe weather threat to linger. The first scenario would be if the dryline slows by another few hours, enough to keep some severe weather potential in far eastern KS with initially developing storms. The second scenario would be if some instability can pool right along the cold front behind the dryline, allowing a few storms with mainly a hail threat to develop over far northeast KS. Aside from these two low-probability scenarios, for most Monday should be a nicer day as cooler and drier air steadily moves in behind the front.

Beyond Monday, increasing troughing over the eastern CONUS will keep a slightly cooler than average in place. The jet stream remains active with multiple waves passing through, so we'll see shower chances increase again for the second half of the week. Not seeing much in the way of appreciable instability though, which should keep the severe weather threat very low for the rest of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 448 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Winds slightly increase from the southeast during the afternoon today, but still stay around or below 10 kts, and then weaken and become more easterly again after sunset. Could see a shower or storm during the mid/late evening hours, mainly towards KMHK, with VFR conditions prevailing otherwise.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.