textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- One more day of extreme heat today. Somewhat cooler Tuesday and cooler yet late this week into the weekend.

- Small (10-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Wednesday. Somewhat greater chances Wednesday night through Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Anomalous upper high over the Four Corners continues to dominate local conditions with above normal 850 mb temperatures and still quite humid surface conditions. Recent 24-hour surface ob change plots showing a warming though drying boundary layer and see no reason why this will not continue today with slightly warmer 850 mb temp and stronger mixing progged. Highs in the upper 90s to around 102 should be common with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s supporting heat indices reaching 108 to 114 for most locations, justifying the going Extreme Heat Warning. Isolated convection in eastern Nebraska recently forming on mid-level warm-air advection on the nose of the low-level jet looks to remain northeast of northeast Kansas.

The upper pattern slowly changes later today through the remainder of the forecast. A shortwave moving through the Great Lakes ushers a modified cold front across the area late tonight into Tuesday. This will drop temperatures at least a bit, but given dewpoint trends of late, confidence in their specifics is not high, and could still bring oppressive heat. Further, a weaker wave looks to spark convection over western Nebraska this afternoon, with some CAMs bringing weakening showers and storms into the area late tonight into Tuesday, with a few members keeping some organization to convection this far southeast despite increasing MLCIN. Chances for severe weather via downburst winds look less than 10 percent and only in portions of north-central Kansas, but lingering precip and convective debris would keep conditions cooler as well. Current forecast values have afternoon heat indices close to Advisory levels in southeastern areas, bringing a fourth day of notable heat, and will keep the Extreme Heat Watch going in much of east central Kansas.

Upper flow becomes more northerly by late week, with a continued signal for a decent shortwave diving south-sotheast through the mid- Mississippi River Valley Thursday into Thursday night for at least moderate precipitation chances locally. Post-frontal northwest flow keeps small precipitation chances in place ahead of this. Temperatures close to normal Wednesday and Thursday drop further behind this wave for the remainder of the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions will continue. Brief minor gusts look possible for a few hours around 20Z from an otherwise modest south wind until a weak front approaches late in the forecast. The potential for high- based convection comes late as well though this potential appears too low for inclusion.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Extreme Heat Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.