textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were added late tonight through Friday morning (20-40%) over most of northeast Kansas. Severe weather is not expected.

- A late summer heat wave is becoming likely this weekend into next week as highs surge into the mid/upper 90s.

- Overnight storm chances return late Sunday evening into next week for areas generally north of I-70.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Northeast Kansas remains embedded in northwest flow aloft downstream of a mid-level ridge centered over the Intermountain West. Water vapor imagery shows the primary jet displaced well to the north while sfc high pressure slowly shifts southeast into the Mississippi Valley. Initial clear skies this evening should begin to observe increasing mid and high clouds as another embedded wave is progged to develop clusters of showers and storms in Nebraska after midnight, before entering northeast Kansas by sunrise Friday. Latest 12Z guidance has shifted measurable QPF further east, encompassing more of northeast Kansas and have adjusted pops accordingly. The HRRR has been the most robust with the coverage of showers lingering through the late morning while other guidance dissipates activity before reaching KS. Low chance pops seem reasonable at this point until better consistency is seen with the upper forcing.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance are coming into better agreement in terms of temperatures as the upper ridge axis amplifies and expands eastward. Low level warm advection returns to the region as a lee trough deepens over eastern Colorado, backing sfc winds to the south. H85 temps steadily increase from 25 to 30C by Saturday afternoon, supporting highs in the upper 90s to low 100s through Monday afternoon. Boundary layer moisture pooling under the thermal ridge maintains near 70 degrees, resulting in peak heat indices from 100 to 105.

By Sunday evening, an upper-level shortwave trough traversing the northern plains will force a surface cold front south towards southern NE. The weak front appears to stall somewhere in the region as both GEFS and EC ensembles exhibit varying solutions on degree of lift and mid level lapse rates overnight into Monday. This weak, quasi-westerly flow pattern aloft continues into most of next week, placing most of northeast Kansas on the warm side of the front. Highs in the 90s are therefore trending more likely for the area as higher rain chances are confined to far northern Kansas during the overnight periods.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR at terminals as northerly winds from 5 to 9 kts sustained this afternoon will veer to the southeast overnight. Low probabilities for widely scattered SHRA to impact terminals aft 09Z tonight as short term guidance varies on location of activity dropping south out of Nebraska.

CLIMATE

Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast August 30 Topeka 79, set in 1932 78 Concordia 78, set in 1951 80

August 31 Topeka 77, set in 1912 and 1947 78 Concordia 81, set in 1947 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.