textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable weather today and Tuesday with temperatures in the 60s and breezy conditions.

- Rain and storm chances return Wednesday night with the best widespread chances coming Thursday and into the weekend.

- The flooding risk is low, but a few inches of rainfall will be possible from Wednesday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Northwesterly upper-level flow remains over the central and northern Plains this afternoon as a slow moving surface front has pushed south across the area. Most of the area has warmed into the 50s and low 60s with some areas cooler near the KS/NE border and a touch warmer across central and east-central KS. For the remainder of the day, a shortwave coming off the WY Rockies will push into the Plains, ushering in mid and high clouds. Further to our north and east, mid-level lift associated with 850-700mb frontogenesis will deepen within a saturated profile and increase snow showers chances. That said, CAMs have continued to confirm that this should stay off in MO, NE and IA but cannot rule out a few snow flakes being seeing early Tuesday morning across far northeast Kansas. No impacts or accumulations are expected.

By Wednesday, a large upper low passes north of the area and helps to push a surface front in from the north. Rain and storm chances will increase by late Wednesday afternoon and evening with as isentropic ascent increases. Chances for rain through the weekend will remain high as weak perturbations embedded in zonal flow continuously advect across the Plain with the surface boundary stalling across the area. Another surge of mid-level lift comes by the weekend as southwesterly flow ahead of a southerly trough advects in mid-level vorticity. The surge of moisture within southerly low level flow will push the surface boundary north of the area and open a window for strong storms by Sunday. Confidence is still low this far out, but given the low level moisture available and cooling aloft associated with the upper low, the set up is there. A brief lull in rain and storms may come Monday before our next system moves in by Tuesday. Ensemble spreads for total rainfall from Wednesday through Monday range from around an inch to up to 4 inches, so heavy rainfall is possible, especially in areas that see round after round of heavy rainfall. Since rainfall is falling over a long duration and PWATs not overly concerning, not worried about much of a flooding concern. All that said, temperatures across this time period will remain fairly seasonable with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period with the exception of haze from local fires around the area. Mid clouds generally increase through the overnight period and winds gradually veer with gusts increasing and lasting through the day tomorrow.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.