textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain tapers off this afternoon. Very conditional risk (10%) for a brief storm over central Kansas.

- Better thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly across eastern Kansas. Any storms that do develop could be severe.

- Staying warm through Friday PM, when a stronger cold front arrives. More thunderstorms possible along this front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Within the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main upper low, a weak shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast over the Ozarks. Light rain associated with this shortwave is beginning to weaken in intensity and coverage, as the best forcing shifts off to our east. Expecting to be mostly dry by early evening. In its wake, we'll see synoptic scale subsidence across the area. Can't completely rule out a storm (briefly capable of small hail and gusty winds) developing along the dryline in central Kansas, but between the clouds and subsidence not expecting anything to develop.

Forcing remains low tomorrow, with 500 mb heights staying generally neutral as the main upper low stays well to our west. So despite some weak dryline convergence, it seems unlikely any convection develops during the PM hours, despite an unstable and moderately sheared environment in place. Maintaining some 15% PoPs in far east- central KS where the cap is weakest during the evening, but overall expecting things to stay dry. Additionally, depending on how far east the dryline mixes, we may see a few hours of very high fire danger across parts of central Kansas. RH drops to around 20% behind the dryline, with southwest winds gusting to around 25 mph.

Slightly better chances for storms begin Tuesday evening as we begin to see some modest height falls ahead of the upper low. Exact position of the dryline is somewhat uncertain, but may end up somewhere near the Kansas Turnpike. With dewpoints increasing into the 64-68 degree range ahead of the dryline, and steep mid-level lapse rates, ML CAPE increases to around 3000 J/kg. Coupled with effective shear of around 40-50 kts, any storm that develops across east-central KS will be quite capable of becoming severe. However there are still some questions with storm coverage, given the late arriving forcing and lingering capping. If we do see development, it would likely only be a few more scattered storms across east-central KS. Similar to Monday, we could also see some elevated fire concerns behind the dryline across parts of central Kansas.

Details for Wednesday will be heavily dependent on the timing of the main upper low as it lifts northeast, pushing a front through our area. A faster timing will shunt the instability and thus the thunderstorm risk off to our east, while a slower timing will keep more of our area in the risk. Wherever the front does end up, do have better confidence that thunderstorms do develop along it mid to late afternoon, with mainly a wind/hail risk.

Shortwave ridging prevails for Thursday as another deep upper low dives into the western US. This will keep the day dry, though still warm for this time of year. A stronger cold front then approaches late Friday evening as that next upper low approaches. Confidence is low in details, but with increasing moisture and shear we'll have to at least watch for thunderstorm potential as the cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures then follow for the weekend, with highs dropping into the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Light rain with generally MVFR ceilings continues for a few more hours, with the lower clouds then scattering out once rain ends. After that, southerly winds 10-15 kts (with higher gusts during the daytime hours) will continue for the rest of the period. Could see some MVFR ceilings briefly return early tomorrow morning, but for the most part VFR conditions will prevail.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.