textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold temperatures and light winds tonight will result in some frost and isolated freeze potential.

- North-central Kansas will continue with elevated fire danger each afternoon through Monday.

- The next notable precipitation chance comes late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Northwest upper flow to be the rule this afternoon through the early portions of next week. With surface high pressure lingering over the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, precipitation chances are quite low through then. A few sprinkles could occur later this afternoon into this evening mainly north of Interstate 70 with a weak wave bringing some lift over modest mid-level moisture where deep mixing has taken place. A few trace precip reports were noted over the high-based cumulus field in western Nebraska and will monitor trends for any sprinkle mention into the early evening. Clearing skies and light winds will bring a good radiational cooling setup much of tonight, though low-level winds should respond late tonight to a weak front moving into the upper Mississippi Valley. This may keep temperatures from reaching near the 10th percentile of NBM values as they did this morning, but still result in some frost potential. Have included this mention for nearly the entire area with northern locations and sheltered spots to the south seeing the greatest freeze potential.

Temperatures modify Sunday afternoon into the middle of next week with breezy south winds somewhat common Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Latest deterministic models agree on an upper low making its way east into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday and on into the northern Plains late in the week, though specifics on this vary with notable spreads in LREF cluster analysis. At this point, mid-range NBM PoPs Thursday into Thursday night seem reasonable with an associated front entering the area, but confidence on timing and potential is not high. Somewhat of a cool-down should take place Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Winds quickly lessen around sunset and become more southwesterly, before becoming more west-northwesterly again tomorrow afternoon at around 10 kts. Conditions otherwise remain VFR, with the current cloud deck around 10 kft clearing through the evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Dry afternoons and breezy winds will bring elevated fire danger today through Monday to locations where green-up is lagging, namely portions of north-central Kansas. Still looks like Sunday will bring the lowest RHs but weakest winds. Monday could be the most concerning day when stout south winds take hold in the afternoon and RH values fall to around 20 percent. Very High Rangeland Fire Danger is expected through Monday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.