textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until Tuesday evening. Afternoon heat index values will reach 100-108 degrees today and Tuesday.

- There is a low chance (15%) for a shower or non-severe storm to develop this afternoon.

- A cold front will move through the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday, bringing chances for showers and storms along with relief from the excessive heat through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mid-level ridging remains in control of the Southern and Central Plains early this morning. A convectively-enhanced shortwave is pushing southeast across Missouri with showers and a few storms continuing just east of the forecast area. Outflow-cooled air has pushed west across the entire area with observations showing easterly winds. Winds will increase from the south-southeast after sunrise this morning and work to mix out the cooler outflow air, leading to another hot afternoon with highs in the low 90s to near 100 degrees. Short-term guidance suggests dewpoints mix out into the low 60s or even upper 50s across central Kansas. Based on recent performance, think this is too ambitious of mixing from models and have kept dewpoints in the low to mid 60s across central and north central Kansas and in the upper 60s to near 70 across far eastern Kansas. This creates heat index values of 100-105 degrees again this afternoon. Forcing is weak, but an uncapped airmass could allow an isolated shower or storm to develop this afternoon. Not expecting any severe weather, but inverted-V soundings favor some gusty winds if a storm does develop.

A pattern change occurs Tuesday into Wednesday as a potent shortwave ejects east across the Northern Plains towards the Great Lakes, squashing the mid-level ridge and shunting a cold front into the middle of the country. Ahead of the front, southwesterly winds will boost temperatures into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees again Tuesday afternoon with heat index values of 100-108 degrees. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 7 PM Tuesday. Speed of the front is varied among guidance, but it appears the front should be moving into northern Kansas by late Tuesday afternoon or evening with showers and storms developing along the boundary. The best forcing is displaced north of the front which could lead to more widely scattered storms as opposed to a solid QLCS. Shear is progged to be marginal (20kts), but initial storms could pose a damaging wind gust and hail risk. There is some potential for storms to evolve into line segments during the evening and overnight hours, but overall confidence is low in severe storms at this time.

The front gradually moves south through the day Wednesday, with some showers and storms continuing along the boundary. Cloud cover and northerly winds will lead to a relatively cooler day behind the front with highs in the 80s to low 90s. The pre-frontal environment will still be hot and favorable for some marginally severe storms by Wednesday afternoon, but the boundary may be completely through the area by the time convection develops. Will need to monitor the speed of the front to determine weather east-central Kansas will have a chance for some stronger storms and heat indices around 100 degrees. The front will push through the area by Wednesday evening, bringing in the much anticipated cooler temperatures for Thursday! Highs in the 80s on Thursday will warm slightly into the mid 80s and low 90s to end the week. Passing waves in the quasi-zonal flow lead to continued chances for precipitation into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Winds increase to around 10kts after sunrise this morning from the south-southeast then weaken slightly after sunset this evening.

CLIMATE

Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 8 Topeka 78, set in 1983 75 Concordia 77, set in 1947 & 1983 77

Record high temperature information:

September 8 Topeka 104, set in 2013 100 Concordia 102, set in 2013 101

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.