textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier air moves in Today behind a front.

- Active pattern continues Tuesday through Friday with cool temperatures and multiple chances for rain and storms.

- Heating back up for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis showed an upper trough extending from northern IN, southwest to southeast OK. The northern stream of the upper jet extended from western Canada, east-southeast across south central Canada across and the northern States. An upper level trough embedded in the northern stream was located across south central Canada and MT, with a second upper trough located southeast of the Hudson Bay region into northern MI.

The 6Z surface map showed a cold front extending from northwest OH, southwest across southern MO, then into northern OK, and west across the TX PNHDL and northeast NM. A perturbations was located across south central KS and was tracking southeast. A line of severe thunderstorms extended from the OK/KS border south of ICT, southwest along the surface front across northwest OK. These storms will remain well south of the CWA during the early morning hours.

Today through Tonight:

Northeast surface winds behind the front, plus morning cloud cover will keep highs Today in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday through Wednesday night:

The H5 trough across south central Canada and MT will dig east- southeast across the northern Plains. A more amplified perturbation will dig southeast on the southern end of the H5 trough, moving across the northern Plains Tuesday night. Thunderstorms will develop across western KS and move southeast across the CWA during the overnight hours of Tuesday. There may be some widely scattered showers and storm that develop during the late afternoon hours across north central KS, due to the richer moisture return into western KS. The main instability axis will stretch from northern OK into western KS by Tuesday afternoon. There will be better chance for severe thunderstorms across southwest and south central KS Tuesday evening. Most CAMs show only 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE developing across north central KS. Given the effective shear of 40 to 50 KTS, I cannot rule out a few marginally severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and through the night across the western and southern counties of the CWA. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards.

Wednesday night, thunderstorms that develop across the high plains of eastern CO may congeal into line segments of severe storms. The Nam12 shows the axis of higher instability shifting southward into northern OK, then extending northwest into western KS. At this time it looks as if the complex of severe storms Wednesday evening will move southeast into northern OK through the night.

Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s

Thursday through Saturday:

Weak perturbations, embedded in the zonal flow, will move east across the Plains providing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Both the ECMWF and GFS show a more amplified perturbation moving across KS Thursday night into Friday, so with the stronger ascent there maybe more widespread showers and thunderstorms. The richer moisture may return across the central Plains, so there may be another chance for marginally strong to severe storms and perhaps more heavy rainfall.

An amplified H5 trough will move onshore across the western US early Saturday. The rain chances should begin to decrease as a down stream H5 ridge begins to amplify across the Plains.

Highs will continue in the lower 80s Thursday and Friday. Look for a warmup into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Saturday night through Monday:

The extended range models are in agreement as the H5 trough across the western US amplifies, a down stream H5 ridge will amplify across the MS River Valley. Look for hot and humid conditions to develop Sunday into Monday. Highs on Monday will reach into the lower and mid 90s. Afternoon heat indices will be in the 100 to 107 degree range Sunday afternoon.

As the H5 trough across the western US begins to lift north east across the central Rockies on Monday, a lee surface trough will deepen across the central high Plains, and south-southwesterly winds will increase allowing for deeper mixing. Thus, the heat indicies will only reach the upper 90s to around 103 degrees, even though high temperatures will reach the lower to mid 90s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Expect marginal VFR cigs overnight and possibly a short period of IFR cigs may occur after 09-10Z to an hour or so after sunrise. Confidence is too low to include IFR so have gone with SCT mention for now. An easterly breeze remains through the period with mixing helping to scatter and lift clouds into mid-morning to midday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.