textproduct: Topeka

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Cold front is almost through the forecast area and is along the I-35 corridor as of 19Z. Southeast of the boundary, the sfc obs show temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 with dew points in the low to mid 70s. The atmosphere remains unstable there with 3000+ J/kg of CAPE. Meanwhile behind the boundary, temperatures have cooled to the low to mid 80s with dew points in the 50s and 60s. Most of us are clear of any severe weather risk the rest of the day with the front passing through. Those areas southeast of it (mainly Anderson County) still can't be ruled out until the front goes entirely east of the area. Some radar echoes have developed there and CAMs have been showing storms there between 20-21z before quickly moving off to the east. If anything strong enough can get going before then, large hail would be the main hazard with wind as a secondary hazard.

High pressure builds in this evening and takes hold for Friday, giving us a quiet and pleasant day. Highs are forecast in the low to mid 80s with dew points mostly in the 50s give or take a couple of degrees.

By late Friday night into early Saturday morning, we have an upper air pattern consisting of a ridge across the Southern Plains and Deep South with an expansive trough centered over Ontario, leaving broad cyclonic flow across the northern CONUS. This places our area in zonal flow aloft. Isentropic lift looks to strengthen Friday evening and overnight along with a weak embedded perturbation within the flow aloft. We should see some showers and storms associated with this during this time frame, but timing and coverage are a bit uncertain. An early look at CAM guidance (which goes until 12z Saturday) shows one cluster through the TX/OK panhandle region and barely into southern KS. Another area of activity looks to develop in far eastern KS into MO overnight. However, that appears to be displaced east of where the better speed convergence from the LLJ would be. If we were to see more convection in the early morning and if rain/clouds were to linger longer, that could have an impact on any severe risk later in the day Saturday.

Speaking of Saturday, the severe risk will depend on what setup we're left with after any morning convection. A shortwave from the Northern Rockies and Plains is progged to push a sfc frontal boundary southward through the day. The placement of that boundary will also dictate where the greatest overall risk will be. Some, though not all, of the 12z guidance is hinting at the front being about halfway south through the area by the mid to late afternoon. Still, much of eastern KS still is progged to have enough instability and shear to support severe storms with large hail and damaging wind as the main threats. Regarding rainfall, the surge in moisture Saturday will return Pwat to between 1.5 and 2". The latest NBM has the eastern half of the area likely to see rain amounts above 1" (50-80% chance). Areas near and southeast of the Turnpike have a 50-70% chance of receiving above 2", and even the NBM mean shows potential for 3" totals in our far southeast. While it's uncertain how far south the heaviest rainfall may end up being, the atmosphere looks primed for efficient rain producers in areas that are already well saturated from heavy rain recently, so a Flood Watch will at least need to be considered. We should have better confidence in whether that is needed in the next couple of forecast cycles.

The front is favored to push south of the area by Sunday, leaving a much cooler and drier air mass to start next week. Highs are forecast in the 70s with dew points in the 40s and 50s. Northwest flow aloft with increasing heights favors gradually increasing temperatures through the 80s. A few weak disturbances are currently progged to stay outside of the area through Tuesday. Wednesday sees the next notable trough swinging across the Upper Midwest, which may bring another round of showers and storms, but timing and placement of that feature are quite uncertain at this time range.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue in a dry airmass. Modest south winds return later in this forecast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.