textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms continue west to east through the overnight hours into early Monday morning with large hail up to 2 inches in diameter the main threat with some stronger gusty outflows possible as well. Tornado threat is low, but not zero.

- Possible redevelop of storms for far eastern portions of the state early Monday afternoon along the cold front but most of the activity will shift east.

- Coolest day of the week Monday afternoon with a warming trend through the rest of the week but still on the cooler than average side for this time of year.

- Next chance for precipitation comes Thursday night into Friday for northeastern portions of the viewing area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Upper level low evident on IR pushing east across southern Canada with a positively oriented L/W trough extending southwestward through the Desert Southwest. WV shows the main finger of the PFJ around the base of the aforementioned trough extending through the High/Great Plains with southwest flow for the CWA. Associated cold front that has sparked the ongoing severe thunderstorms is along this line from north central to southwest KS with ample difluence aloft ahead of all of this. This has given ample exhaust to the lifting and instability that will extend through the overnight hours. Current severe watch during this time as storm activity has increased the past couple of hours west to east giving way to ample elevated convection with the associated warm front lifting north along this west to east boundary evident on radar. Predominant threats has been hail up to 1 to 2 inches in diameter with gusty outflows possible (30-40%) of up to 40 to 50 mph. Steep lapse rates continue through the path of the shortwave as evident on some 00Z soundings, in particular DDC. Tornado threat has diminished, but not totally out of the question due to the earlier convection that tends to eat away at the instability, especially into the overnight hours. With the west to east entrainment, storm coverage and severity should be on the decline into the early Monday morning hours but possible flooding could come to fruition by daybreak that will keep an eye on in the coming hours.

Otherwise, storms will exit east with the associated cold front but models show it stall further east that will spark another round of convection early Monday afternoon. However, the thermodynamics of the system will be mainly on the "cooler" side that will keep severe storm development further into MO. If any severe storms do develop for far eastern portions of the CWA, they will quickly race out by mid afternoon. Beyond that, expect Monday afternoon to be the coolest day of the week with a warming/mainly dry trend but still on the cooler than average side for the end of April through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend as the aforementioned trough pushes north and northeastward. Westerly zonal flow mostly during the time with a ripple extending south from the previous upper level low that could extend down to northeastern portions of the CWA Thursday night into Friday. Impacts look to be low at this point but something to keep an eye on in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Intermittent MVFR conditions with thunderstorms on station for TOP/FOE with much of the activity east of MHK with only VCTS to start the period. This will push into far eastern portions of the sate by 16Z as winds become breezy behind a weak cold front with northwesterly gusts up to 18kts lasting through much of the period. Ceilings lift to VFR but remain low at all TAF sites throughout the day as stratus builds back in towards the end of the period after 08-11Z becoming MVFR once again. High pressure builds back in for Tuesday as conditions improve into the next TAF cycle with no other weather elements expected at this time.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ039-KSZ040.