textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry with above average temperatures through most of the weekend.

- Next chance of rain (30-70%) comes Sunday night into Monday with highest chances focused in north central KS.

- Temperatures moderate next week closer to seasonal normals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Upper ridge continues to build into the central CONUS early this morning while the closed low slowly moves onshore of the CA coastline. As a result, sfc high pressure leaves clear skies overhead with light winds for many locations, although some (namely CNK) are staying better mixed than others. So far the river valley at TOP has been the main spot in our CWA that has observed shallow ground fog, and would expect fog like this to be confined to the typical low-lying spots more prone to it, keeping it isolated and patchy. This should burn off soon after sunrise with another warm day on tap. The upper ridge axis moves overhead today into Friday, and slightly deeper mixing today should also aid in temperatures being a touch warmer than yesterday. Southerly winds increase into Friday thanks to a lee sfc trough tightening the pressure gradient ahead of the upper system, bringing gusts to 25-35mph across most of the area. Assuming our high temperatures continue to verify around the 90th percentile of guidance (no reason to expect differently with this setup), most places should manage to reach the low 80s each day through the end of the week and possibly Sunday as well.

Most guidance continues to be in general agreement with keeping the trough's eastward progression slow enough to bring the associated cold front through the area sometime on Monday. It's still early for the NAM, but it is a notable outlier in that it starts to bring the boundary into the area Saturday night. Other guidance has the front nearby, but keeps it northwest of the area and stalls it until Monday. There are still enough differences in timing and speed of the front that wide temperature ranges remain Monday onward. Still, the overall trend is for cooler temperatures into the 60s behind the front and moderating closer to seasonal values through mid-week. Rain chances associated with the front begin in north central KS Sunday night and spread east into Monday, but remain highest in the western half of the CWA (30-70%). Some showers may linger into Tuesday morning if the upper trough is still slower to progress east by that time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Shallow ground fog in the river valley at TOP will continue to keep vsby bouncing between IFR, at times LIFR, and VFR conditions for the first couple of hours this period. This should burn off as Td depressions increase. Otherwise, winds pick back up from the south to southeast while remaining under 10 kts through the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.