textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms are expected (60-90% chance) to develop along a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening. These storms could be severe and produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and potentially a tornado or two.

- Slightly cooler Friday into early next week with additional chances for storms. Highest chances (60-80%) come Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Mid-level ridging holds over the Plains early this morning with gusty southwest winds pumping low-level moisture into the region. An expansive area of stratus has developed and will hold across the forecast area through the morning until it mixes out for most areas around midday. Temperatures will be slower to warm this morning given the cloud cover, but will warm into the 70s and low 80s this afternoon. Stratus builds back in overnight tonight and into Thursday morning as a potent closed low ejects across the Northern Plains. There could be some showers Thursday morning, but a stout EML is expected to preclude convective development until forcing peaks during the afternoon (3-5 PM) from a passing mid-level wave and increased convergence along the surface dryline/cold front. There is still some variability in placement of the boundary by this time, but the most likely area for initial development is from eastern Nebraska into north-central Kansas. Effective shear of 30-40 kts largely parallel to the boundary will favor quick upscale growth into a line of storms that will propagate southeast through the evening. The environment will be favorable for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two with the initial storms before damaging wind gusts becomes the primary hazard once a line of storms forms. A strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening does lead to more curvature in the low-level hodograph, supporting some mesovorticies along the leading edge of the convective line. 0-3km shear vectors are progged to be west-southwesterly at around 30kts, so a north-south oriented convective line would be most favorable for any spin-up tornadoes. Storms exit the area to the southeast Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Zonal flow sets up across the Central Plains Friday into early next week with periodic perturbations moving through the flow. Friday looks primarily dry behind Thursday's system, but precipitation chances increase Saturday and especially Sunday into Monday when a stronger wave ejects across the Plains. There could be some severe potential with this wave, but predictability is low. Temperatures hold near or slightly above climatological norms with highs in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

MVFR stratus will impact terminals shortly and remain in place into the daytime hours Wednesday. Guidance suggests this stratus mixes out around midday with gusty south winds persisting. MVFR cigs are likely to build back in near the end of or just beyond this TAF period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.