textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance (10-15%) for isolated showers/storms to redevelop this afternoon with better chances (30-60%) coming overnight along/southeast of I-35.

- Widely scattered showers/storms will be possible through Saturday night, followed by drying conditions into next week.

- Near average temperatures hold through the weekend, then gradually warm through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis showed zonal flow across much of the central and northern Plains. Minor MVC's were located across northwest MO and southeast KS/SW MO.

The 17Z surface map showed a weak cold front extending from central IA, southwest across the northern and western counties of CWA, then southwest into far northwest OK.

Today through Saturday night:

The weak front will continue to push southeast through the afternoon hours. The RAP is the only CAM showing convection along the front during the late afternoon and early evening hours across the southeast counties of the CWA. The higher instability will be located across southeast KS late this afternoon and the effective shear will be under 20 KTS, so I do not expect any of these storms that may develop across the southeast counties to be severe.

Late this afternoon and evening, the CAMs show thunderstorms developing across western KS as easterly low-level winds advect richer moisture west. Most CAMS show a complex of storms developing across southwest and west central KS. These storms wil move east and begin to weaken as they move into the CWA. I cannot rule out some isolated damaging wind gusts through the early morning hours of Friday across southwest counties of the CWA. The NSSL ARW and the 17Z HRRR show these storms remaining more intense as they push east across the southern counties of the CWA between 10Z and 13Z, generally south of a Council Grove to Ottawa line. Most the CWA will remain dry through the night into Friday morning.

The surface front will remain stationary across southern KS through Friday and into Saturday. Weak mid-level perturbation in the near zonal mid level flow may provide enough ascent for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday night. The higher instability will be located south of the CWA. However, if the boundary shifts farther north, into the CWA, then there maybe a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, The effective shear will be weakening as H5 ridge across the southwestern US builds north and then northeast across the central and northern high Plains.

Sunday through Thursday:

The center of the upper ridge will shift east and remain stationary across northeast NE/southeast SD. The mid level flow across KS will become easterly. A number of TUTT lows, perturbations, will ride west along the southern periphary of the H5 ridge across south TX. The ascent will cause widespread thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast. The easterly low-level flow across the Plains, combined with deep moist convection along the gulf coast will limit the transport of richer Gulf moisture farther north. So, even though high temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s next work week, the surface dewpoints will remain in the 65 to 70 degree range, which will keep heat indicies in the 90 to 100 degree range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Expect VFR conditions through most of the next 24 hours. Several of the CAMs keep the showers and thunderstorms south of the terminals overnight and through the Friday morning. I did keep the prob 30 at KMHK, between 8z-12Z Friday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.