textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Early morning thunderstorms gradually clear out after sunrise. Locally heavy rain and isolated flooding possible for the next few hours.

- Conditional risk for severe thunderstorms this evening across eastern Kansas. If storms redevelop, large hail and damaging winds will be possible, with a low tornado risk.

- Staying a bit warmer than average for the next week. Low rain and storm chances continue Monday through Thursday, mainly towards central KS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Another night with scattered convection currently ongoing amidst a broad WAA regime. Shear remains weak, which should help storms stay predominantly sub-severe. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic environment is in place so some small hail or localized gusty winds can't be ruled out. Locally heavy rain may also pose some minor flooding issues, given a tendency for storms to backbuild and train over the same areas. However the better WAA will shift northeastward over the morning hours, which should help coverage of convection wane over time.

As the main upper low continues northeast this afternoon, mid-level heights will begin to rise across the Central Plains. The resulting synoptic scale subsidence will tend to suppress convection during the afternoon and evening hours. However, the current band of convection developing near I-70 may help to lay down an east/west outflow boundary somewhere in the area, as depicted by some short range guidance. If this does occur, there may be a small zone of mesoscale lift favorable for storm development this evening. Increasing mid-level flow and veering low-level winds along the boundary would act to increase shear, and coupled with ML CAPE over 3500 J/kg, a supercell or two would be possible. So will have to watch for a conditional severe weather risk, with large hail to around 2", damaging winds, and a low tornado risk associated with any storm that manages to develop on the boundary.

A seasonably strong upper ridge axis will remain nearby for much of the rest of the week, keeping temperatures a bit on the warm side of average. Meanwhile, an upper low over Ontario will drop south towards the Mid-Atlantic states, with a large associated area of high pressure over the Great Lakes. Northeasterly winds on the west side of the high will help reinforce a weak frontal boundary that will set up just to our south and west Monday. Not overly excited with the severe weather potential Monday, as given the position of the front the best forcing should stay to our southwest. Shear and instability are also less impressive than today. But if a storm can develop, still a low chance it produces some small hail or gusty winds. Some low rain and storm chances than linger Tuesday through Thursday, mainly towards central KS closer to the boundary.

By late week and into next weekend, a majority of guidance has some sort of weak upper low slowly lifting northeast across the Southern Plains. This should bring some higher rain chances back across most of the area, with the details being dependent on the exact track and strength of the system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the early morning hours before decreasing in coverage and moving off to the northeast. Low chance for a storm or two again this evening towards KTOP/KFOE, but otherwise the rest of the period looks mainly dry. Medium confidence in a brief period of MVFR ceilings arriving shortly after sunrise, then scattering out early afternoon. Winds stay predominantly southeasterly at 5-10 kts before becoming light and more northerly towards sunset.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.