textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms linger towards central KS this morning, with a low chance for some more rain in this area tomorrow morning as well.

- More widespread rain chances increase Thursday and especially into the weekend. Increasing chances for another wet multi-day stretch.

- Temperatures stay near to slightly above average, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Current observations show a diffuse boundary across southern Kansas, with weak easterly winds in place here in northeast Kansas. Given the placement of this boundary and the instability axis along it, the MCS that developed across western Kansas last evening has stayed off to our south. We'll see some scattered showers and storms develop over the next few hours as an area of isentropic ascent shifts east. Some of these storms could briefly produce some small hail, but any notable severe weather risk should remain to our south with the MCS. Do think we'll see showers and storms linger into mid- day along and west of the Flint Hills, given persistent weak WAA. The associated clouds should help keep temperatures in the low 80s, perhaps mid 80s if the sun briefly peak out. Mostly dry conditions look to stick around through Wednesday night. Similar to this morning, could see a few remnants of High Plains convection make it into north-central Kansas, but for the most part we'll just see partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.

Thursday and into the weekend, model guidance remains consistent with a weak upper low developing over the southern High Plains and slowly lifting northeast towards the area. This would create a prolonged period of modest isentropic ascent across eastern portions of Kansas. Total rainfall coverage will be dependent on mesoscale details that are impossible to resolve this far out, but confidence is increasing in another multi-day stretch with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The mean QPF through the weekend is over 1" across much of the area in both the Euro and GFS ensembles, suggesting some pockets of several more inches of rain are quite plausible. Weak shear suggests the severe weather threat will remain low through this period, though it could slightly increase later in the weekend as the upper low makes its closest approach. Temperatures should stay near to slightly above average over this period, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Low chance for some showers and and weak thunderstorms near KMHK though the morning hours, but confidence remains too low for any specific mention in TAFs. Otherwise, think VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with just an outside chance at some scattered MVFR ceilings during the day tomorrow. Winds remain generally easterly at 5-10 kts.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.