textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry with above-normal temperatures through the rest of the week
- Next chance of rain comes Sunday night into Monday, followed by cooler temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Mid-level ridging is building into the Central and Southern Plains this afternoon ahead of the closed upper low that remains parked off the California coast. The shortwave that brought isolated showers to the area this morning has pushed southeast, leaving dry, sunny, and warm conditions in its wake with temperatures topping out in the 70s. Light winds and temperatures approaching crossover thresholds could yield patchy fog overnight, although guidance shows some cloud cover overhead and modest winds just above the surface which could preclude development. Any fog is likely to be confined to low-lying areas and would mix out quickly after sunrise. The mid-level ridge moves overhead Thursday into Saturday, keeping dry and unseasonably warm conditions in place with highs around 80 degrees.
A slower ejection of the western trough continues to be the theme among guidance; it appears likely that the trough will remain far enough west to keep the surface front northwest of the area for Sunday, creating another dry and warm day. The southern stream energy finally ejects Sunday night into Monday bringing the next chance for showers and storms to the area. Guidance varies in speed of the wave and precipitation chances linger into Tuesday before the wave pushes east and the cold front makes it through the area. Still seeing large spreads (15 degrees between NBM 25th-75th percentiles) in potential high temperatures Monday into the middle of next week, but temperatures are favored to cool back near climatological norms for late October.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
VFR conditions expected. Will need to monitor the potential for fog overnight given light winds and temperatures approaching crossover thresholds. Guidance shows a signal for at least some cloud coverage, which could limit fog development. Have held off on inserting a fog mention for now.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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