textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat remains the primary element of concern through the period with the dewpoint temperatures remaining high. Expect heat index values to approach or reach 105 degrees through Saturday mainly over east-central into portions of northeastern Kansas.

- Storms moving in from western Kansas appear very low chance tonight but if they do, then wind may be possible over north central areas.

- Morning to early afternoon showers with an embedded lightning strike or two possible again tomorrow morning mainly across central into north-central areas with the return flow into the region holding on.

- Friday night storm chances look low at this time but a few may make a run into the Highway 36 corridor areas into the overnight period.

- The 4th of July also remains uncertain due to the weak flow over the region. The best chance for storms still appears to be focused after dark ranging form a 40 to 60% chance from north to south through the overnight period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The overall pattern remains slow to change with a weakening Omega blocking pattern over central Canada. Meanwhile, a semi-permanent Bermuda high anticyclone remains over the southeastern CONUS while a plume of subtropical moisture continues to stream into the southern Plains across the central Plains into portions of the upper MS Valley between the northwestern flank of the the Bermuda ridge and a broader trough over the northwestern CONUS now showing signs of lifting gradually into the northern Rockies.

Considering all of this, the overall pattern leads to a low predictability forecast going into the holiday weekend with weak and disorganized overall upper flow across the region. With somewhat persistent cloud cover and isolated showers over western areas, limited mixing and overall lower temperatures have help lead to lower heat index values holding into the mid to upper 90s. Further east, the the ridge remains strong enough to help keep overall cloud coverage slightly lower with slightly deeper low level moisture also in place. Thus, heat index values remain slightly higher to around 100 to 105 range. Persistent southerly flow into the overnight periods tonight and Friday should allow for overnight lows to remain in the middle 70s which for eastern areas will help keep the heat index values slightly higher tomorrow and the 4th of July. Have continued the heat headlines through Saturday.

For this evening and overnight, a few storms have begun to form over southeastern CO and another area of showers is persisting over western KS with a more well developed cu field. The short-term CAMS seem to be struggling to catch on so low predictability on that front for overnight. The flow remains overall weak, but if these storms grow upscale and begin to propagate, they could advance east before beginning to die off into central Kansas areas. Would expect that if they do make it this far east that wind probably remains below severe limits but additional moisture may help saturate the mid levels to help the isentropic responses in the morning on Friday have a little more moisture to help condense. Have mentioned or kept 15-20% POPs over western areas into parts of northeastern KS for tomorrow morning.

Friday night, the western trough begins to lift further and advance east into the northern Plains. Most guidance again is hinting that a small scale MCS may form and advance east but the question is how far south does the outflow advance which may bring increase storm chances to the highway 36 areas. This is low confidence though at this time and very well could remain dry into Friday night.

The bigger question and is for the 4th of July and where guidance remains essentially split on when and where storms form in the afternoon on Saturday. As the flow over the northern tier of the CONUS transitions to more quasi-zonal, it remains to be seen where any subtle shortwave emerges from the northern Rockies and helps enhance the local shear which may foster more robust storm organization to take place before congealing into an MCS. Where the theta-e ridge is most pronounced would be a sensible area for the resulting updrafts to track into and be maintained. Again, it isn't yet clear where this mesoscale setup is best placed, so storms could ride directly into the area or remain displaced to the northeast but still look like they wouldn't be on track to arrive until after dark. Since this is obviously an important day, stay tuned through tomorrow and even into Saturday during the day for updates. Unfortunately, predictability is still too low to hone into on exact times or even raise the overall chances across the area into the late day and overnight period on Saturday. Also, the intensity of storms is low predictability at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Southerly winds pick up mid to late morning sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts at times through about sunset.

CLIMATE

Updated at 342 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature

July 3 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 76 Concordia 80 (1934) 74

July 4 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1911, 1969) 75 Concordia 82 (1934) 73

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ012-KSZ024-KSZ038- KSZ054. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.