textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant day today before some showers and a few rumbles of thunder move across the area overnight tonight.

- Slightly below average temperatures again Tuesday before heat and humidity return Wednesday.

- Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along a cold front Wednesday afternoon/evening across east-central KS. Large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be possible.

- Below average temperatures Thursday and into the weekend with the next chance for rain/storms coming Saturday and Sunday - some possibly strong.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows northwesterly flow over most of the central US with ridging over the western coast and a stalled tropical disturbance over the western Gulf. Closer to the surface, surface ridging is prevalent over eastern Kansas with very pleasant afternoon conditions. Expect highs to top out in the low 80s by the later afternoon hours. Later this evening, a embedded shortwave within the aforementioned northwesterly flow will dig south into Iowa and help to push a weak boundary across eastern Kansas. Given the 50 degree Tds in the area, minimal energy for storms will be present, but some showers and a few rumbles of thunder may accompany the weak frontal passage from late this evening through early Tuesday morning. Surface ridging slides into the region Tuesday as pleasant conditions persist again through the afternoon.

The frontal boundary stalls across southeastern Kansas Tuesday evening before lifting north as a warm front through the overnight hours into Wednesday. There is a very small chance that an isolated storm develops along this boundary late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but minimal lift aloft and increasing nocturnal inhibition will likely limit chances to less than 10%. Moisture advection continues through the day behind the lifting warm front as 70 degree dewpoints return across eastern Kansas, ahead of the next upper level wave. By Wednesday afternoon, a shortwave is expected to eject into the northern Plains and kick out a strong surface low into Nebraska and Iowa. A trailing surface trough will extend south into eastern Kansas by the afternoon and help to provide a more confined area for convergence for afternoon/evening storm development. Given the surging temperatures and moisture pooling ahead of the surface trough, guidance depicts MLCAPE to approach 4500-5000 J/kg as bulk shear increases to 40-50 knots. As the boundary slides into east- central KS by peak heating hours, MLCIN is expected to weaken and will allow for CI along the surface front. Given the severe parameters, supercells with very large hail, damaging winds will be possible. As for the tornadic potential in storms, low-level shear vector orientation is fairly veered, so the potential for long and sustained tornado potential in supercells is low as this would lead to cells getting frequently undercut by their RFDs. That said, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially if a storm can remain isolated. Storm motion vectors seem fairly favorable for storms to initially move off the boundary with minimal storm interactions. As convection lingers into the evening, increasing 850mb winds should congeal storms into a line and move east of the area. In addition to storms, afternoon heat indices within the warm and humid air mass will creep into the low 100s. Will monitor the need for any heat headlines in the coming day or so.

Surface ridging and weak northwesterly flow aloft will usher in another wave of pleasant temperatures and dry conditions Thursday and Friday before rain/storm chances return by the weekend. Several waves ejecting off the central Rockies Saturday and Sunday will lead to an increase in PoPs for the weekend. Given the moisture in place and shear aloft, some stronger to severe storms could become possible Saturday afternoon and again Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Late Tonight and through the mid morning hours of Tuesday, there could be scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm over the terminals. The probability for a thunderstorm looks too low to place in the TAFs. Winds will become more from the northwest by Tuesday afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.