textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger expected each day this week, with Thursday looking to be the most concerning fire weather day.

- Record highs possible Wednesday and Thursday

- A strong cold front increases precipitation chances Thursday night, although any rainfall is expected to be light.

- Cooler behind the front Friday and Saturday before warming up again to begin next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Southerly low-level flow has returned today and temperatures have warmed quickly through the day, topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon. The warming trend continues on Wednesday with 850mb temperatures climbing to 18-22 degrees C. With good mixing, this will translate to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, approaching or exceeding record values at CNK and TOP. Very dry air and elevated winds along with the abnormally warm temperatures will create very high fire danger across the area Wednesday afternoon.

A strong cold front is progged to move across the area on Thursday. Guidance is coming into better agreement in the cold front moving into north central by late morning, pushing southeast across the area during the afternoon, and exiting the area Friday evening. The pressure gradient tightens ahead of and behind the boundary with gusts of 30-40MPH from the southwest pre-frontal and from the north- northeast post-frontal. The main uncertainty still revolves around exact timing of the front and how fast temperatures fall behind the boundary. Highs will likely be back near 90 degrees again ahead of the front while areas behind the front may reach into the 80s before temperatures fall through the day. The strong winds and the wind shift make Thursday the most concerning fire weather day.

There is a growing signal for precipitation to develop along and behind the cold front Thursday evening into Friday morning, with best chances (50-80%) across east central Kansas. Model soundings show a window for deep enough mid-level saturation and weak elevated instability to produce showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, but the low-levels remain rather dry. The probability for any impactful amounts is low, even across east central Kansas where the NBM has a 30-50% chance of exceeding 0.1" and a 15-40% chance of exceeding 0.25". Cooler air spills into the central CONUS Friday and Saturday with highs in the 50s and 60s. Southerly flow returns again late Saturday, setting the stage for another warm-up into early next week. Chances for precipitation also increase into next week as the mid-level ridge is flattened and flow becomes more zonal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions persist through the period. South winds of 10-12kts this afternoon weaken this evening and overnight before increasing again from the southwest by 15z Wednesday. There could be a period of LLWS between 09-14z Wed, but a gradual change in wind speed and direction with height favors low-level turbulence over wind shear.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Near-record temperatures, low relative humidity, and elevated winds will likely create very high fire danger across the area on Wednesday. The strongest winds occur in the morning and slowly diminish from west to east through the day. Relative humidity falls to 15-20% along and west of a line from Hiawatha to Chapman with higher values of 25-35% farther east. Given the lack of overlap with the lowest relative humidity and stronger gusts, will hold off on a Red Flag warning, but still expect very high fire danger.

Thursday still appears to be the most concerning fire weather day as winds increase from the southwest ahead of a cold front before becoming gusty from the north-northeast as the front moves across the area. Current guidance depicts the front moving into north central Kansas by late morning, pushing southeast across the area during the afternoon, and exiting the area Friday evening. Temperatures will likely reach back near 90 degrees ahead of the front before falling behind the boundary. The main uncertainties still revolve around exact timing of the front and how fast temperatures fall behind the boundary. If the front is slower and/or temperatures do not fall as fast post-frontal, the overlap of strong winds and low relative humidity (less than 30%) is more likely. If the front is faster and/or temperatures fall faster after it passes, the area and time window for strong winds to overlap with low RH will be more limited. Fire partners report recent fires have been intense and have spread rapidly even with lighter winds, so the combination of strong winds and the anticipated wind shift could support a Red Flag Warning even if criteria isn't met.

Even with cooler air moving in for Friday and Saturday, the airmass will remain very dry with RH of 15-30% forecast both afternoons. Northeast winds are forecast to gust at 20-30 MPH during the day Friday with winds becoming southerly on Saturday, potentially gusting to 20-25 MPH across north central Kansas.

CLIMATE

Updated at 210 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Record High Temperature for March 25

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 91 (1907) 90 Concordia 92 (1907) 93

Record High Temperature for March 26

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1910, 1991) 92 Concordia 86 (1907) 85

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.