textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds gusting between 40 and 50 mph combined with falling snow could cause near blizzard conditions Sunday.

- Turning much colder Sunday as temperatures fall through the day. Wind chills could be 5-10 degrees below zero Monday morning.

- Elevated fire danger is possible Saturday afternoon over parts of north central Kansas as RH values fall to around 30%.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Northwest flow had set up from the Pacific Northwest through the central plains per the 07Z water vapor imagery. A compact shortwave was propagating east over the Upper Midwest. Surface obs showed a low pressure system over MN/WI with a trailing cold front extending through central KS. Surface obs showed mush of the low level moisture remained confined to the gulf coast and even then the richer dewpoint temps had been shunted well south of the coast.

The frontal system passing south of the area this morning has allowed the pressure gradient to relax and surface winds should continue to subside through the morning. Models show weak perturbations within the flow moving across the central plains through Saturday. But moisture looks to remain limited. Stronger warm air and moisture advection are progged by the models by Saturday evening. But as low level moisture increases, a pretty strong EML is progged to move into northeast KS too. So limited moisture today and a cap over the boundary layer moisture on Saturday is expected to keep dry weather in place.

The main focus of the forecast is on the potential winter storm for Sunday and Sunday night. There is reasonable agreement among the 00Z operational solutions in the timing and strength of an open wave moving across the plains. And strong cold air advection is progged as a surface low tracks just north of the KS state line Saturday night and into the upper MS river valley on Sunday. Models show falling temps through the day as a very strong pressure gradient on the back side of the surface low causes northerly winds to easily meet wind advisory criteria and potentially flirt with high winds. Based on the strength of the cold air advection progs, used some the the NBM twenty fifth percentile in the hourly temp grids to show temps falling through the afternoon a little shaper than the mean NBM. So temps are going to be cold enough for any precip to be snow by Sunday afternoon. The question is how much precip are we going to get. The NAM and ECMWF tend to show lower QPF totals because they struggle to saturate mid levels initially. But the GFS has no difficulties in saturating the column. Additionally the GFS shows a good frontogenetical response within the deformation band with strong vertical motion within a deepening DGZ. The NBM mean snow amounts for the storm are generally around 1 inch which seems reasonable based on the 00Z ensembles and QPF amounts generally less than a quarter of an inch. However the NBM does show the probability of exceeding 2 inches across far northeast KS at around 25 percent. These probs drop off as one moves west into north central KS. So while the GFS is one of the highest solutions for QPF and snow, I don't think it can be completely dismissed. Given the expected wind speeds with the system, snow amounts may be secondary to the impacts of the wind and falling snow restricting visibilities. I anticipate we will need some headlines eventually for the wind and limited visibilities from falling snow.

A weak clipper wave is noted in the operational runs diving on the back side of the upper trough Monday night. This could bring some light snow to parts of the forecast area but moisture should be rather limited so chances for major impacts look to be pretty low. Upper ridging develops over the southwest by mid-week and is forecast to expand into the southern high plains by the end of the week. This is well supported by the ensembles including the hybrid GEFS and AIGEFS. So it looks like next week will start off with temps in the teens and end with afternoon highs around 80.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Dry air with surface ridging is expected to keep VFR conditions in place. Forecast is driven by the winds as center of the ridge passes this afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.