textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Another warm afternoon with storm chances by the evening.

- Some storms may become strong to marginally severe with hail of 1- 1.25" in size and isolated wind gusts to 60 mph.

- Cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday with shower and non-severe storm chances.

- Warmth and mostly dry conditions return by Thursday and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows northwesterly flow over much of the central Plains and Midwest, ridging moving into the 4-corners region ahead of a cutoff low over the SoCAL/Baja region and the main jetstream over the PNW, pushing moisture into the northern Rockies. Influence from embedded mid-level waves in the northwesterly flow and mid-level vorticity advection over the southern Rockies has deepened a lee surface cyclone over southeastern Colorado and western Kansas that has kept weak moisture advection across the eastern half of Kansas.

Through the day today, weak moisture advection will continue across far eastern Kansas as both the northern and southwestern cyclones approach the central Plains. Widespread warm temperatures topping out in the mid 80s will be expected ahead of the surface trough by the afternoon hours in eastern Kansas as Tds creep into the mid to upper 50s. This should set the stage for late afternoon and early evening convective initiation along the surface trough with some storms becoming strong to marginally severe. Parameters for stronger storms seem to align best across east-central Kansas and Missouri where moisture advection will try to erode the EML in place leading to MUCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg. Deep shear does not look overly impressive - around 30 knots of effective shear - so expecting strong and mature cells to maintain a multicellular structure. This should keep the main hazards as large hail, up to 1-1.25" in size with isolated 60 mph winds gusts. Most strong storms should exit the area into Missouri by midnight, but with ample upper-level and low level forcing north of the frontal boundary, scattered showers and weak convection will continue into the overnight hours and through Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and weak thunderstorm chances will continue through Wednesday as PVA associated with a newly phased trough moves over the Rockies. Additionally, northeast Kansas will remain on the cool side of the frontal boundary Tuesday and Wednesday so severe storm potential will be near zero with highs each afternoon likely topping out in the upper 50s and low 60s.

The upper-level trough axis passes over the region Thursday morning with mid-level heights increasing into the weekend. High temperatures return to the 70s for Thursday through Sunday with the next chance of widespread precipitation coming Saturday night as a PNW mid-level wave advects into the central Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Expect low level wind shear to continue for the first few hours of the period before surface winds increase by 8-9 AM. Southwesterly flow will persist into the early afternoon before becoming light and variable as a surface trough approaches from the northwest. Added mention of VCTS at KTOP and KFOE for isolated convection potential later this evening. Most convection should be east of the terminals by midnight tonight as winds increase out of the northeast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.