textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday late afternoon and evening, capable of producing most likely large hail and damaging winds, followed by a lesser risk for tornadoes.

- Seasonably warm temperatures persist throughout the work week before a cold front arrives with highs in low 70s this weekend.

- Occasional showers and storms cannot be ruled out throughout the weekend, although uncertainty in occurrence is high.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Shortwave ridging aloft towards the Intermountain west continues to build towards the central plains this afternoon. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough shifting through Oklahoma is observed by a swath of low clouds lifting northward into southern Kansas. This stratus deck should reach northeast Kansas late in the evening, becoming overcast through Wednesday afternoon. Cloud cover insulates temperatures some towards far east central areas with readings in the low 70s while locations further north should see the sun return during the late afternoon, warming to 80 degrees Wednesday afternoon.

The stratus deck returns late Wednesday into Thursday across much of the region, lending to the initial uncertainties in afternoon storm development. A stout capping inversion noted on forecast soundings during the afternoon may preclude storm development until a mid level vort max arrives in the evening. The timing of this wave and subsequent storms forming along an advancing cold front still varies among guidance with the GFS solutions being most robust with upper level forcing/coverage of convection being further west into north central Kansas in the evening. If storms are able to develop in the late afternoon-early evening time frame, environment would support all severe hazards, including the threat for a tornado. Most likely hazards are large hail and damaging winds as storm mergers and marginal wind profiles suggest a line of storms tracking southeast across northeast Kansas through early Friday morning. QPF amounts are not impressive as well given the progressive nature of the front. NBM probabilities for at least 0.25 inches range from 30 to 40 percent, dropping to less than 10 percent for greater than 1 inch.

Broad upper troughing persists into the weekend with some indications from models of another embedded trough interacting with the cold front in the form of scattered showers and storms this weekend. Ensemble solutions are highly varied in where the front ends up, especially Saturday evening into Sunday. NBM has chance pops Saturday, increasing to likely on Sunday for precipitation, however overall confidence remains low without poignant forcing in the mid levels.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR this afternoon as gusty southerly winds peak near 30 mph before subsiding shortly aft 00Z. Believe the low lying areas at KTOP should fall below 10 kts initially in the evening before MVFR stratus deck moves northward, increasing winds above 10 kts as the clouds arrive aft 08Z. MVFR clouds dissipate to VFR at the end of the forecast period as south winds back to the southeast, becoming gusty over 20 kts in the afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.