textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas to at least patchy dense fog can be expected during the overnight and early morning period across much of the area with low lying areas possibly experiencing reduced visibilities to around 1 mile or less. A dense fog advisory may be needed later during part of the overnight period.

- Low-medium confidence in a few severe storms impacting portions of north central Kansas this evening into the overnight period. Primary severe hazard is damaging wind gusts to 70 mph.

- Warmer temperatures in the middle 90s with heat indices near 100 degrees Sunday and Monday afternoons.

- Precipitation chances return late Sunday - Tuesday amid a slow moving cold front within the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

MCS and remnant MCV continue to trek southeast across central Kansas this afternoon. Increased northwesterly flow aloft and several embedded perturbations in vicinity of an outflow boundary may provide convergence for an isolated shower or storm in the late afternoon. Most CAMs are inconsistent on coverage and location of isolated convection as overall confidence in development is low. However with the decaying MCV present, have added slight pops across eastern KS into the late afternoon. Isolated severe storms could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail given the marginal deep layer shear and MUCAPE ~3000 J/KG, if they were to form. Overnight convection is still in question for north central KS as the some of the 12Z suite in guidance is trending further west/south with the MCS. Environment ahead of the cold front is supportive of severe storms as MUCAPE is around 3000 J/KG, if the MCS begins to develop in northern KS. Maintained low chance pops for now given the cold front moving through.

Added a very low chance for showers and storms cannot be ruled out along the frontal boundary on Wednesday, especially south of I-35 in the afternoon. Drier, sfc high pressure settling southward should result in a pleasant, less humid Wednesday evening with dewpoints near 60 and temps in the low 70s. High pressure sticks around Thursday before shifting eastward as mid level heights increase, leading to southerly winds and warmer temperatures this weekend. Heat indices peak in the low 100s Sunday and Monday as south winds pickup from 15 to 20 mph sustained. The upper ridge flattens on Sunday as a northern stream shortwave trough pushes a cold front through the central plains. Ensembles exhibit a wide variance on timing and location of the front and subsequent convection through Tuesday. Broad low chances seem reasonable as the front meanders in the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Fog is expected to form early this period and will impact terminals through around 14Z. Visibility could drop to LIFR, and possibly VLIFR at KTOP & KMHK with fog. Once fog clears, VFR is expected with light north winds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.