textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Another push of cold air comes today behind a cold front. Most will stay in the 20s with minimal warming today.

- Best chances for snow stays north and east, but could see some patchy areas of freezing drizzle this morning and early afternoon along and after the cold front passage (<10% chance).

- Very cold Sunday morning with most seeing single digits to start the morning. Temperatures rebound into the 20s with a warming trend through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Looking at early morning water vapor imagery shows a small wave embedded in large-scale northwesterly flow that has begun to eject off the central Rockies. In response to this wave, lee surface troughing has deepened across the high plains of Kansas and Nebraska setting up an upslope flow regime. The increase in low level lift has ushered in fog, and patchy freezing drizzle just west of the forecast area. Over the remainder of the morning, weak isentropic ascent tries to spread further east as the 850/700 mb wave axis pushes southeast through Kansas. This could provide a brief window this morning and early afternoon for patchy freezing drizzle to occur across areas north of I-70. That said, chances remain 10% or less. The good news for those non-snow lovers is that the best forcing with the wave and jet streak stay well north and east of the area keeping snow chances across Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri. Cannot rule out a brief line of flurries as the main cold front moves through far eastern Kansas between 18-21Z, but confidence in this is very low. The main story today outside of the very small precipitation chances will be the reinforcing shot of cold air following the mid-level wave passage. Strong CAA will begin across far northern Kansas by 10 AM-noon today with areas further south of I-70 seeing this by 1-2 PM. This will keep temperatures from warming much during the afternoon, likely seeing high temperatures occurring late this morning and falling through the afternoon. Most will not make it out of the 20s today with afternoon wind chills in the low teens to upper single digits.

By Saturday night and into Sunday morning, an arctic 1040 mb surface high will track south from the northern Plains into eastern NE and western IA. Under clearing skies and light winds, expect temperatures by sunrise Sunday morning to plummet into the upper single digits. Areas closer to the surface ridge in far northeastern Kansas could see temps bottom out in the low single digits. By the afternoon Sunday, some recovery should be noted as the surface ridge slides east and light WAA helps the area warm into the 20s. Strong WAA builds in Sunday night into early next week ushering in much warmer air by early next week. Temperatures Monday afternoon should reach the upper 40s with Tuesday and Wednesday seeing the upper 50s and low 60s as quasi-zonal flow aloft builds in from the west. A more amplified pattern moves in late in the week, but precipitation chances remain low this far out with the lack of consistency and continuity between model guidance.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 500 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

MVFR stratus will be expected to continue for much of the TAF period, not breaking up until later this evening. A secondary cold front moves through the area around mid day that increases winds out of the north/northeast with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph. Gusts should decrease around sunset as clouds scatter out with the surface ridge building in from the north overnight.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.