textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler Tuesday and cooler yet late this week into the weekend.

- Small (10-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Wednesday. Greater chances Thursday into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1013 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The excessive heat warning has ended.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A strong upper ridge centered over the southern Rockies and southern Plains continues to support extreme heat across northeast Kansas, with highs around 100101 and heat index values near 110 this afternoon. The Extreme Heat Warning will continue through this evening.

Upstream convection today is focused farther northwest and west of the forecast area, where the SPC Day 1 Outlook maintains a Slight Risk across portions of the central High Plains including far northwest Kansas, tied to one or more MCS clusters developing along the northern periphery of the ridge. Guidance favors these complexes tracking mainly across western Nebraska and adjacent Kansas, with only low confidence in any eastward extension of stronger winds into northcentral Kansas. Storm chances are very low through the evening.

Overnight, a weak boundary begins pushing southward into our area. This, combined with an increasing low-level jet may be enough to spark some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as early as 5am across north central KS, with increasing chances/coverage later in the morning across eastern Kansas. Forecast soundings indicate a decoupled boundary layer and dry air just above the surface. The threat for severe storms looks minimal with these features in place and less than 1,000 J/Kg of effective CAPE and less than 30 knots of effective shear. The slow-moving boundary, increasing cloud cover and potential rainfall should all help keep temperatures in check tomorrow, with heat indices generally around 100 degrees.

The upper-level ridge breaks down further by Wednesday and Tuesdays boundary moves off to our south. This should keep us cooler through the remainder of the week, with several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday into Friday, a stronger cold front is favored to move through, this will bring our highest chances of precipitation for the week (50+%). Given the limited largescale forcing over northeast Kansas relative to areas closer to the main northern stream shortwave and the modest frontal convergence, thunderstorm coverage is expected to be scattered, with QPF generally light to moderate and many locations likely remaining under an inch through the period, though localized higher amounts are possible under slower or training cells. WPCs Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights broader areas of concern for flash flooding but does not indicate any focused, highercategory risk centered over northeast Kansas at this time, supporting a low flash flood threat locally.

The severe potential late week appears minimal, with SPC mediumrange guidance emphasizing stronger instability and shear corridors closer to the northern Plains and Midwest rather than northeast Kansas. With warm midlevel temperatures and only modest shear, storms in the Topeka area should mainly pose risks of brief heavy rain, lightning, and localized gusty winds, though an isolated stronger cell cannot be ruled out, especially Thursday night into Friday when the front is closest. Overall, the main impacts for the local area are a break from the most extreme heat, increased cloud cover, and episodic, mainly subsevere thunderstorms.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Some of the CAMs are forecasting the convection in western KS reaching the terminals between 6-8Z TUE. There some uncertainty in intensity but there may be thunderstorms with some gusty winds possible. Looks like off and on showers and storms will continue into the early afternoon hours. During periods of thunderstorms with heavier rainfall there may be some short duration MVFR visibility and ceilings.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.