textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-A few lingering light rain showers this morning and cooler temperatures forecast today.

-Temperatures quickly warm early in the workweek, and will be well above average by late week.

-Next cold front arrives Tuesday, but POPs remain somewhat uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Scattered rain showers could linger into the early morning hours today as an H5 shortwave trough moves over the area. A lack of instability and deep moisture will keep any rain that reaches the ground light. Conditions clear out this afternoon as a surface ridge settles in. High temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday, topping out near 70 degrees due to weak CAA and initial cloud cover. Another warming trend starts tomorrow as surface high pressure moves southeast and upper ridging expands over the central US. Highs warm back to near 80 degrees tomorrow, and are then expected to be back in the upper 80s by Tuesday.

Our next cold front arrives on Tuesday when an area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region. Instability will build through the day ahead of the boundary. Overall forcing looks fairly weak, but some guidance has scattered storms developing along the front during the late afternoon or early evening, mainly near and south of I-70. Currently, the NBM has the highest POPs south of I-35 after 00Z. Surface high pressure takes control again midweek, bringing temps back down a few degrees.

Southerly flow returns Wednesday night. There is some early indication that WAA could lead to thunderstorm development Wednesday night or early Thursday due to isentropic ascent, however, confidence is not high on precipitation chances. Confidence is higher on very warm conditions setting in late in the week. Temperatures are forecast to reach the 90s in central KS on Thursday, and into the 90s for the entire forecast area by Friday afternoon. Some long range models also shows a series of shortwaves aloft from Friday through next weekend. Guidance is still varied on actual placement and timing, making any confidence in POPs low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR continues this period. Chances for rain continue to decrease and are now mainly between 15-20% overnight. If a shower does occur at terminals, brief gusty winds around 30 kts could accompany the rain. Again, chances look low for this to happen, so have not included mention in TAFs with this update as the stronger winds will likely stay aloft.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.