textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trend warmer the rest of this week, looking to be well above average by the end of the week.

- Small rain chances Tuesday late afternoon and evening, then again later this week although confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Shortwave trough aloft is pushing south early this afternoon with sfc high pressure working into the area behind it. Cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler south of I-70 compared to those locations north, as skies clear gradually north to south this afternoon. This sets up good radiational cooling tonight with temperatures falling back to the 40s by early Monday morning. From there, expect plenty of sunshine and low-level southerly flow to bring highs back to around 80 degrees Monday afternoon.

A 500mb ridge amplifies across the western US during the first half of the week, contributing to further warming Tuesday with an 850mb thermal ridge overhead. We still keep northwest flow aloft as a shortwave dives southeast across the Great Lakes region, and drags a sfc front across our area. The best upper-level forcing should be east of the area, but there could be just enough convergence along the front to develop showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon to early evening hours, mainly in east central KS southeast of the Turnpike. If the cap erodes in time and storms are able to form along the front during this time frame, there looks to be enough instability and deep-layer shear to support a few severe storms with hail and wind as the main hazards.

Sfc high pressure then takes control Wednesday with the upper ridge moving overhead Thursday. Uncertainty in the forecast grows through the second half of the week, mainly tied to the evolution of a shortwave that is progged to move from the Pacific coast across the northern or central US. Ensemble cluster analysis shows this feature as either an open wave or a closed low off the Pacific coast as of 00Z Thursday. There are varying ideas between models on how strong this system will be as it propagates east, and whether it will ride the ridge or flatten it. This will have some implication on our precipitation chances later this week, and given the lower confidence, PoPs are low as well. There seems to still be enough influence from the ridge aloft to have higher confidence in above average temperatures late this week as highs look to reach the 90s. However, it should be noted that the NBM is on the warm side of all the model guidance, and if clouds/rain come to fruition, that would likely result in cooler temperatures than forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail. High clouds push south this afternoon while northeast winds decrease. Winds become light and variable tonight, then pick up from the southwest Monday morning.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.