textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Two rounds of snowfall are expected with the winter storm set to move through the area tonight through Sunday. The first round comes this evening into Saturday morning, and the second round comes Saturday night into Sunday with a lull in between. The first round will produce more snowfall.

- Forecast snow totals are slightly lower 5-7" along and south of I-70 and 2-3" for counties along the KS/NE border.

- Very cold air moves in today and lasts through Monday morning. The coldest wind chills between -15 and -20 are expected Saturday and Monday mornings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Early this afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper low off the northwest Mexican coast, with an upper level trough axis extending north-northest to an upper trough across the northern high Plains. A mid level confluence zone was noted across the eastern Plains and Mid MS River Valley. An upper level trough was shifting east off the Canadian and New England coastline.

At the surface A broad surface ridge extend from the northern Plains, south-southeat across eastern KS/western MO. Strong low-level CAA was noted across the Plains, keeping temperatures in the single digits across the CWA. Very dry air was in place with dewpoints -15 to -25 deg F across the CWA.

Light snow was finally developing across the far southwest counties of the CWA but due to the dry air in place it will take several hours for the light snow to develop farther north and northwest across the CWA.

Tonight through Sunday:

The first northern stream H5 trough across the northern high Plains will shift east across the northern Plains as the southern stream upper low fills and lifts northeast into northwest Mexico. The low-level residual moisture will remain far south along the front in central and southern TX. Though some residual moisture will advect northwest at 850mb towards the southern and into the central Plains Tonight. There will not be much QG forcing across the region Tonight, most of the ascent will occur due to deeper isentropic lift along the 280-290K pressure surfaces. Once the snow is able to saturate the low- levels of the atmosphere, we should see accumulations of snow begin from southwest to northeast across the CWA through the evening hours. We'll probably see a widespread area of light snow with embedded areas of moderate snowfall through the early morning hours up until Noon Saturday where models show the isentropic lift weakening. The light snow may become more like snow showers Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

There still remains some uncertainty in the amount of QPF. The 12Z SREF shows about 0.2" to 0.3", with liquid to snow ratios of 15:1 to 20:1, which would result in 2 to 6 inches of snowfall from north to south across the CWA by Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night, through Sunday:

The H5 trough across northern Mexico will lift northeast across TX into eastern OK and AR by 18Z SUN but will be filling as it lifts northeast. Several CAMs are beginning to show a more southern track with the H5 trough. Therefore, most of the second round of snowfall will probably remain southeast of the CWA Sunday morning. The 18Z ECMWF/GFS models continue to show the northwest edge of the next snowband moving northeast across east central KS early Sunday morning. But usually these heavy snowband have a sharp gradient on their northwest side, especially with dry arctic air in place. I'm leaning towards very low additional snow amounts for the CWA Saturday night into Sunday. Several CAMs and the 18Z NAM show a tight gradient across the southeast counties of the CWA Saturday night into Sunday, possibly another additional inch or two of snowfall across east central KS Saturday night into Sunday.

Most of the accumulating snow will occur Tonight into Saturday. Expect only 2 to 3 inches along the NE border, with 4" to 5" along the I-70 corridor. The southern counties may see 5" to 7".

Beside the snow expect the frigid weather to continue into Monday. Wind chill indices will remain in the 10 to 20 below zero range so the cold weather advisory will continue through Monday morning.

Monday through Friday:

A longer wave length H5 trough will develop across the eastern US. Expect northwest flow to continue across the Plains, with surface cold fronts pushing southeast across the CWA every other day. The strongest CAA will be across the east central US but temperatures will remain below normal. Monday highs will reach the upper teens to lower 20s with mostly sunny skies. There may be a brief warming trend with highs reaching the upper 20s to mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front moves through to knock high temperatures back into the 20s. lows will be close to records of 4 to 10 below zero Monday morning. Otherwise expect lows to be in the single digits to teens.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1014 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Should continue to see -SN across the terminals through midday into part of tomorrow afternoon before trends improve into the end of the period. Cigs likely range in the marginal VFR category with vis being the limiting factor dropping mainly with a couple primary snow bands moving through which could drop to vis temporarily to around 1SM. Winds remain out of the NNE and continue to remain between 10-15kts through morning and gradually calm into the end of the forecast period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.