textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- An upper embedded trough passes to our north this evening, bringing increased clouds and mostly scattered light rain showers north of I-70.

- After more mild temps return in the 70s after Tuesday, pattern becomes more active Thursday - Sunday with occasional showers and thunderstorms anticipated throughout the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Quiet and mild conditions this afternoon as a cold front currently near the KS/NE border slows as it shifts southward, bisecting the CWA by late afternoon. Northeast winds increase along/north of the boundary from 15-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Mid clouds increase this afternoon as an embedded upper trough rounds the ridge to the west before tracking southeast through eastern NE and northern MO tonight. Latest short term guidance is consistent with the narrow band of forcing staying north coupled with the lack of deep moisture in northeast Kansas. Have therefore reduced pops for much of the area, confined mostly to the highway 36 corridor. Temp profiles aft 06Z Tuesday suggest the possibility for brief light snow to mix in, however no accumulations or impacts expected.

Upper pattern shifts as the ridge breaks down, allowing for several waves to traverse the plains from Wednesday into the weekend. Initial time period to highlight is Wednesday evening into Thursday as a cold front enters the region. Ensemble spread is high due to timing of the wave with the front and degree of moisture available. Spread of QPF in the 25th-75th percentile is in upwards of an inch with overall low confidence on the location of the likely pops in the forecast.

While a washout is not anticipated for the weekend, the stalled front nearby coupled with several perturbations arriving upstream of a southern stream closed low warrants modest pops for the enhanced isentropic lift. Pwat values are not well above climo values for this time of year to suggest a elevated risk for flooding or heavy rainfall. Nevertheless, locally heavy rainfall is possible for portions of the region by the weekend. Overall severe threat is low, but could see a few stronger storms during this period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 557 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR at sites with scattered mid clouds spreading southward with a fropa. The front is expected to enter terminals by 14Z, increasing northeast winds above 10 kts. Winds become gusty by 23Z as a system passes through NE this evening. Showers are not expected, however lower VFR stratus is likely towards sunrise.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.