textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low and conditional threat for severe storms as early as late afternoon with more widespread showers and storms anticipated late tonight.

- Late afternoon and early evening storms are more likely to be severe with damaging wind gusts (up to around 70 mph) and large hail (to near golfball size) while overnight storms may produce isolated pockets of gusty winds up to 60 mph and small hail.

- Weather pattern remains largely unchanged this weekend through most of next week with occasional chances for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Currently observing elevated showers and storms across NE this afternoon, associated with a mid level perturbation trailing southeast across the central plains. Main question is if these storms will dissipate or maintain themselves as they enter northern Kansas after 2 PM. Upper forcing weakens by late afternoon before a stronger wave arrives late tonight. In the meantime, atmosphere in our northern counties continues to destabilize today as MUCAPE reaches 3000 J/KG in far northeast Kansas after 3 PM. Bulk shear increases by early evening as well to near 50 kts. If storms maintain themselves or redevelop, the atmosphere is supportive of severe wind gusts and large hail. It's important to note that several cams, including the HRRR, have weakened storms before they enter our area so there exists higher than average uncertainty in storm evolution this afternoon. Better chances for showers and storms comes late tonight as a stronger upper trough develops another storm complex over Nebraska. Track of these storms has been most consistent impacting north central Kansas so have placed higher pops there through Saturday morning. Severe probabilities are not as high with overnight convection, however cannot rule out isolated wind gusts to 60 mph and small hail.

Residual showers and cloud cover should clear by late morning Saturday as a cooler sfc high slides southward during the afternoon. Highs are a tad lower in the mid to upper 80s, and may fall further into the lower 80s Sunday afternoon, dependent on lingering showers and cloud cover. Ensemble guidance maintains a strong consensus for the upper ridge to stay suppressed over the Southwest, leaving the Central Plains within an active shortwave pattern Sunday through next week. Maintained slight chance pops Sunday afternoon as a stronger vort max approaches the region, increasing pops overnight as the enhanced LLJ aids in a cluster of storms dropping southeast out of NE.

Additional upper disturbances within the northwest flow may bring renewed shower and storm chances Tuesday evening and Thursday. Temperatures through next week are near normal for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s for highs.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 556 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

CAMs continue to show the isolated TSRA falling apart between 00Z and 01Z, with a better signal for convection moving through after 10Z Saturday. Would like to see convection develop upstream before going with more than a PROB30 group. Outside of any precip, VFR conditions are progged to persist with light sfc winds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.