textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue into early next week.

- Rain chances return Tuesday, with highest chances (50-65%) coming Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Broad mid-level ridging holds across the Southern CONUS into the Central Plains early this morning as Hurricane Isaias approaches the Gulf Coast. Temperatures at 2 AM are only a few degrees below normal highs for this time of year, and will only cool into the low to mid 60s by daybreak. A modest tightening of the pressure gradient will allow for slightly deeper mixing today than yesterday, resulting in highs near-record values in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Above-normal warmth and dry conditions remain the theme into early next week as the mid-level ridge holds across the region, sandwiched between the remnants of Isaias as it lifts north and a potent trough across the western US. Winds do increase this weekend with gusts of 20-35 MPH expected, highest across north central Kansas. The pattern is still progged to change next week as the aforementioned western trough ejects across the Plains, bringing tropical moisture from current Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel along with it. Guidance continues to vary in speed of this trough, although most ensemble members bring a front into the area by Tuesday. A weak perturbation in the southwest flow along with frontal convergence could be sufficient for showers and storms to form during the day Tuesday, but the highest chances come as the trough approaches Tuesday night through Wednesday night. PWATs are progged to be near climatological maximums for mid October, so there is at least some potential for locally heavy rainfall. Effective shear of around 40 kts coupled with modest instability could support a few strong storms as well. There is plenty of time to iron out the rainfall and severe weather details in the days ahead,so stayed tuned. Temperatures trend back near-normal behind a cold front for the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Still a low chance for some shallow fog at KMHK/KTOP until sunrise this morning, but have kept out of TAFs. Winds increase from the SSW late this morning with gusts around 20 kts through the afternoon before winds weaken this evening. Marginal LLWS conditions set up overnight, but a largely unidirectional low-level wind field supports turbulence over LLWS.

CLIMATE

Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Record high information for October 9:

Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 92, set in 1954 89 Concordia 91, set in 1921 and 2020 90

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.