textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A cooler airmass keeps highs in the 60s through Thursday as modified Canadian air settles across the area.
- Next precipitation chance arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday as a western trough lifts through, but severe weather is not expected given limited instability and quality moisture return.
- Temperatures warm through the holiday weekend with highs returning to the 70s and 80s by Saturday into Memorial Day.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
A cold front pushed through the area overnight, leaving anafrontal showers across eastern portions of the CWA early this morning. Modified Canadian high pressure builds in through the day, bringing drier conditions and a reinforced cool airmass with highs only reaching the mid to upper 60s today through Thursday.
The next forecast challenge arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday as a mid-level trough emerges from the Rockies and lifts northeast across the region. Moisture return remains limited ahead of this system, with surface dewpoints struggling to recover into the lower 50s. Instability is expected to be minimal as a result, keeping severe weather probability low with low QPF amounts expected.
A warming trend takes hold heading into the holiday weekend as the pattern becomes more amplified and southerly flow returns. Highs climb into the upper 70s by Saturday with lower 80s possible by Memorial Day. Increasing moisture return may bring additional precipitation chances late in the extended period, though confidence remains limited with spread widening amongst the ENS, GEFS and GEPS solutions at this range.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 451 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
A brief period of IFR conditions to start the period mainly at KTOP/KFOE then cigs improve to marginal VFR across all terminals into midday before lifting to VFR by mid to late afternoon. A steady breeze should remain from the north through the day before calming into this evening.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ034.
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