textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog and stratus linger into the evening across the area with some redevelopment of patchy dense fog again Friday morning.

- Warmer Friday and Saturday before big cooldown comes Sunday and early next week.

- There is a 20-40% chance for rain across parts of northeast and east central KS as the front passes Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Once again, fog has dominated much of northeastern Kansas this morning as the very moist airmass remains stagnant north of a stationary front across east-central KS. With most of the area staying mostly socked in with low stratus for the day from lifting fog, do not expect ample warming to take place. That said, as of 1 PM, there has been some clearing closer to the stalled boundary that has helped those areas in central and east-central Kansas to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s. North where low clouds stay prominent, only expect highs in the 50s and low 60s. There may be a brief period around the late afternoon (2-4 PM) that efficient mixing makes it up towards I-70, but the late warming effort will likely only provide a few degrees of warmth to the I-70 corridor, warming into the mid to upper 60s at best. Overnight tonight, will need to watch for the redevelopment of patchy dense fog again. With minimal diurnal warming today, especially across north-central and far northeast Kansas, it will not take much to resaturated the BL and fog up once again. That main difference and forecasting challenge tonight and into Friday morning will be a subtle wind shift behind a weak surface trough passing through the area. This will shift the winds out of the west, bringing in lower dewpoints - potentially down into the 35 to 40 degree range. This should keep widespread dense fog from developing, but cannot rule out some patchy dense fog through the overnight hours, especially in areas that saw limited warming this afternoon. Kept mention of patchy fog and low stratus to account for the dry air advection. SREF visibility probs tend to agree with the lessened fog chance with scattered 20-30% chances of visibilities below 1/2 mile through the morning. Any fog that develops should quickly lift after sunrise Friday with stratus mixing out west to east by the later morning hours.

By Friday afternoon, drier air, mostly clear skies, diurnal mixing and mid-level ridging overhead will promote temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. A similar pattern continues into Saturday with a touch more of mid and high cloud cover filtering in from the southwest. Highs will again top out in the mid upper 60s with a few low 70s. Each afternoon will come close to record high temperatures, see the climate section below for more details. The warmth comes to an abrupt stop by Saturday night into Sunday morning as Canadian low sweeps in from the northwest pushing an arctic front through the area. There has been a slowing trend in the passage of the frontal boundary Sunday and has shifted precipitation chances a bit further west into eastern Kansas. With the strong push of cold air into Sunday afternoon and lingering precipitation chances, could see a changeover from rain to a rain/snow mix across far eastern Kansas. Not expecting much of any accumulations. Strong CAA (NW winds gusting to 35 mph at times) behind the front will limit much warming Sunday afternoon with highs likely seen in the morning with falling temperatures through the day - upper 30s northwest ranging to upper 50s towards east-central KS. The cold persists into early next week with low temperatures Monday and Tuesday getting down into the teens! There is a subtle warming trend by mid week, but NBM 25th- 75th temperature spreads still remain around 10-15 degrees this far out, so overall confidence is low at this time. That said, any widespread precipitation chances look to remain near zero in the next week outside Sunday's chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 537 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Low stratus between 500 and 1000 feet should develop at the terminals through the mid and late evening hours. Light fog will develop, which may drop visibilities down to 1 to 3 miles. I cannot rule out some patchy dense fog early. But a 30 to 40 KT low- level jet will develop during the late evening hours and will prevent any widespread dense fog from developing overnight. In fact visibility may go back up above 6sm through the early morning hours of Friday. The stratus should also mix out after 12Z FRI. There maybe some moderate wind shear of 20 to 30 KTS during the early morning hours of Friday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 156 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Record Forecast Normal

Dec 25 High Topeka 68 (1922, 2016) 66 41 Concordia 64 (1950, 2016) 54 39

Dec 26 High Topeka 67 (2008) 69 41 Concordia 64 (1959, 2008) 68 39

Dec 27 High Topeka 71 (1946) 69 41 Concordia 63 (1928, 1976) 64 39

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.