textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance of freezing drizzle or drizzle (10-20%) remains this morning, though most places probably stay dry.

- Temperatures return to above normal mid to late week.

- Periodic showers and thunderstorms with greatest chances Tuesday into Wednesday and again Thursday night into Friday (50-80% for both).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 441 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Nearly zonal flow aloft continues with a closed low over the PNW vicinity. At the surface, we continue to see northeast to east winds on the southwestern periphery of a high pressure cell centered in the Great Lakes. Temperatures have been hovering at or just below freezing in north central and northeast KS, whereas east central KS has been between 34-36 degrees through the night. There hasn't been much evidence of widespread drizzle or freezing drizzle for much of the overnight hours, though it has been rather difficult to ascertain how much precipitation is actually out there. Based on observations and cameras, it appears as though most places have been staying dry with isolated and patchy areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. Forcing for ascent also looks weak with models still showing mixed signals for how this will evolve through the morning and afternoon. Vertical profiles indicate some lift picking up around sunrise and there appears to be a subtle boundary near the KS/NE border, which could perhaps develop some drizzle where temperatures are still near freezing. While it seems more likely that most places remain dry, in collaborating with neighboring offices, decided it would be best to let the advisory ride with this scenario being a fine line between staying dry or a potentially hazardous situation if freezing drizzle were to become more widespread around sunrise.

Temperatures should warm above freezing for all areas by late morning, and regardless of any drizzle, cloud cover sticking around will make for a dreary day. This may also make it difficult to warm up very well. Have forecast highs in the 40s, but would not be surprised if some areas struggle to reach the 40s, particularly further north. Isentropic surfaces show a better signal for vertical lift increasing from south to north this evening and overnight, so some scattered rain chances return at that time frame ahead of the next wave.

By Tuesday, the Pacific upper low is progged to move across the Rockies as an open wave with an associated sfc low moving across the TX/OK panhandles. This will bring a cold front across the area into the afternoon. There are small differences in where this front may set up, which will have an influence on thunderstorm chances, but consensus currently has the boundary just south of the I-70 corridor. A strong temperature gradient exists with this front, leading to forecast highs in the 40s and 50s north, and 60s to low 70s south of it. For areas south of the front, we'll need to watch for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday as elevated instability and bulk shear would be enough to support a hail threat with any stronger updrafts. The front should push south of the CWA by evening, but guidance is in pretty good agreement with keeping post-frontal activity around overnight into Wednesday morning.

Models differ on how progressive this first wave is, though there should be some dry time Wednesday into Thursday as it moves east of the area. The next amplified trough looks to dig across the western US late this week, increasing chances for showers and storms again Thursday night into Friday. Evolution of this trough varies heading into the weekend, leading to lower confidence in rain chances towards the end of this forecast period. Still, the 25th percentile of the NBM has high temperatures near or above average Wednesday onward, leading to high confidence in warm temperatures returning for most of the coming week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Stratus will hang around through the period with little improvement today. LIFR conditions at MHK this morning should give way to IFR at all sites this afternoon. Cigs then are expected to drop to LIFR this evening and remain there into Tuesday morning. We may need to also watch for fog to reduce vsby along with the stratus overnight.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.