textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatres continue today and Thursday before temperatures approach triple digits by the weekend and into Monday.

- Isolated to scattered storms will be possible Thursday afternoon (15-30%), mainly across far east and east-central KS.

- More seasonable temperatures and precipitation chances build in for the remainder of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Early this afternoon a broad upper level ridge axis extended from eastern SD, southeast across the OH River Valley, and then into the Middle Atlantic States. An upper low was nearly stationary across south central TX, producing rounds of thunderstorms and flooding across central and southern TX. An upper level trough was located off the Pacific Northwest coast. The main upper jet extended from the northwest US, northeast into central Canada, then southeast across eastern Canada and New England. A few minor perturbations were located along the southern periphery of the upper ridge axis across the mid and lower MS River Valley.

This afternoon through Thursday:

A few weak mid-level perturbations may move Northwest into OK/southeast KS, providing enough ascent for isolated showers and thunderstorms across portions of east central KS during the late afternoon hours. The best chances will be across the southeast counties of the CWA. The ARW CAMs show even a chance for isolated showers farther north across all of east central and northeast KS. Overall, being on the southern edge of the H5 ridge will provide synoptic scale subsidence, so even if a pop up shower or storm does develop they will be pulse storms, or may not even form. Most CAMs only show 300-800 J/kg of MLCAPE and the effective shear will be around 10 KTS. So, none of these pop up storms will be severe. There could be some gusty winds in the vicinity of a storm pulsing down.

Thursday night through Monday:

The extended range models are in agreement expanding the center of the H5 ridge axis southwest across the central and southern high Plains, into the central Plains. Under the H5 ridge high temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 90s. There could possibly be some 100 degree readings along and south of I-70 Monday afternoon, with the center of the H5 ridge axis shifting southwest across KS, If the PBL mixes deeper, then dewpoints may drop into the mid to upper 60s during the afternoon hours next week, thus our max heat indices will only be a few degrees higher then the max temperatures. If dewpoints are a bit higher across east central KS, then heat indices may rise into the the 105-108 degree range Monday afternoon.

Monday night through Wednesday:

The extended range models are in fair agreement with retrograding the H5 ridge axis farther west-southwest across eastern CO/western KS/north TX. This will cause the mid level flow to become northwesterly across eastern KS. An amplifying H5 trough across the eastern US will cause a surface front to push south-southwest across the CWA on Tuesday. Convergence along the front combined with any embedded perturbations in the northwest flow may provide enough ascent for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Tuesday highs ahead of the front will still reach the mid to upper 90s across the southern half of the CWA, with lower 90s across the northern counties. Northeast to easterly winds will cool temperatures a bit on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s north to lower 90s south.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Few-Sct CU with bases of 40000 to 6000 feet will continue through the afternoon hours. There's a 10-14 percent chance of an isolated shower/storm at KTOP/KFOE. Shallow ground fog may form at KTOP near sunrise but will mix out by 13Z THU.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.