textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain showers and sprinkles/flurries are possible around sunrise this morning.

- Elevated fire danger is expected this afternoon with gusty north winds at 15 to 25 mph sustained and RH values falling from 25 to 30 percent.

- Elevated fire danger and strong winds return Friday and Saturday afternoons as a stronger cold front arrives in the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Meridional flow aloft this morning has carried the cold front and cloud cover into southern Kansas and northern OK. Falling temps overnight have been delayed, given the 10-15 mph sfc winds and insulating cloud cover. Temps should bottom out in the lower 30s a few hours after sunrise. Another minor perturbation observed by lower clouds dropping south through Nebraska may develop scattered light showers or sprinkles/flurries through mid morning, especially where lift is maximized over north central Kansas. Cloud cover clears south by the afternoon, allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s. Short term forecast soundings are signaling increasing BL mixing in the afternoon, as RH values fall below 30 percent for a few hours (see FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION below). This aligns more with the 75th-90th NBM for winds and wind gusts from 15 to 25 mph sustained, gusting up to 35 mph.

Calming winds and mostly clear skies return this evening, allowing for good radiational cooling and colder lows in the lower 20s. A passing low level trough to our north provides a brief warmup on Thursday as southwest winds pickup from 10 to 20 mph sustained, raising highs from the upper 40s to low 50s.

Upper air pattern changes once again early Friday as a potent upper low deepens into the Great Lakes region, forcing a cold front into the region as the low level pressure gradient tightens from Nebraska into Oklahoma. Models are consistent with the strong winds likely reaching advisory criteria in northeast Kansas while the EFI is signaling the potential for an unusually strong wind event for this time of year. If trends continue, may need to increase wind speeds in the forecast on Friday afternoon. And while the NBM remains dry Friday evening, operational runs of the GFS/EC/Canadian or signaling light rain/snow showers so may need to considering adding pops in subsequent forecasts.

A very cold airmass is to follow Saturday-Sunday morning with small spread in temps in the upper 20s-low 30s for highs, followed by single digit and low teens lows Sunday morning as high pressure moves overhead. Fortunately, there is a brief reprieve on Sunday as low level thermal ridge spreads east, warming temps above freezing in the upper 30s before another cold front passes Monday morning. Thereafter from Tuesday onward, temps appear to recover back into the 40s as dry conditions reign.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 518 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Scattered to broken MVFR stratus is developing southward this morning associated with a weak system that may produced isolated showers. Confidence is low for precipitation impacts at terminals as cigs should clear to VFR by 15Z. Main concern are the winds as northwest winds have increased from 15 to 20 kts sustained and will remain in strength through late afternoon as they veer to the north. Gusts in excess of 30 kts are possible before speeds calm shortly aft 00z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Very high fire danger is expected this afternoon for portions of northeast and east central areas. Northerly winds behind the cold front increase by mid morning from 15 to 25 mph sustained, gusting to 35 mph at times through late afternoon. Clearing skies and enhanced low level mixing of expansive dry air aloft drives RH values down from 26 to 35 percent for much of northeast Kansas. Given the dead fuels present, very high fire danger is reasonable.

Elevated fire danger concerns return Friday afternoon as northwest winds become strong from 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 50 mph. Based on signals from some ensemble members, winds could be somewhat stronger than the current forecast. In turn, drier air behind the front carries RH values down to the 30-40 percent range while highs are in the low 40s. The fire danger threat shifts southward Saturday towards central/east central Kansas primarily. Northwest winds are slightly weaker, albeit gusty, at 15 to 25 mph, gusting to around 30 mph. Among the same area, minimum RH values fall from 25 to 35 percent in the late afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.