textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold day on Monday is expected to be followed be mild near normal temperatures through Thursday.

- There is a 20-30% chance for mainly snow Friday night through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

20Z water vapor imagery showed a deep upper trough over the eastern two thirds of the country with a high amplitude ridge along the west coast. A couple shortwaves were noted within the upper trough, the first of which was moving through the lower MO river valley. Surface obs showed a front had moved through the forecast area shifting the winds to the northwest. But there wasn't much cold air behind the front and good insolation with a downslope component to the winds have helped temps warm to around 50 across the western counties.

Scattered showers are expected to move into the area this afternoon and early evening as low level lapse rates steepen. There appears to be a couple of bands across central NEB that have been sustained for the last hour or so. Because of the and the CAMs showing a similar solution for these showers, have bumped up POPs to carry a slight chance for measurable precip. Still have chances for sprinkles and flurries around this, but it is not inconceivable a few spots pick up a hundredth or two before the activity passes to the southeast later this evening. The RAP and NAM continue to show the frontogenetical band of snow setting up tonight to the southwest of the forecast area. So have a dry forecast with just some mid and high clouds once the shower activity moves out.

Operational models are in pretty good agreement with the pattern through Thursday. This keeps northwest flow over the forecast area with occasional waves moving mainly north of the forecast area. However this will cause temps to fluctuate as fronts periodically pass through the region. The NBM seems to handle temps pretty well. The one thing to watch out for may be a non-diunal trend Monday night into Tuesday. Models show the surface ridge weakening with a southwest to west low level flow developing through the night that may allow temps to remain steady or gradually tick up through the early morning hours. Also forecast soundings redevelop the steep low level lapse rates by Monday evening. If there is enough moisture in place, it is not out of the question to see some isolated shower activity redevelop. None of the operational solutions show QPF and there is a fair amount of dry air below a shallow saturated layer. So have not added a mention of precip to the forecast.

Forecast predictability decreases for Friday and the weekend as ensembles show a widening array of solutions possible. Perhaps the biggest change is for Friday with the 12Z operational guidance bringing a much stronger cold front through early in the morning. Have not changed the initialization because the 00Z ensembles signaled the colder temps moving in for the weekend. It is interesting that the 12Z AI-GFS also holds off the stronger surge of cold air until later. But the forecast is potentially 20 degrees too warm based on the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian. The other potential change based on the 12Z runs would be to reduce precip chances due to the strength of the surface ridge. Again the 00Z ensembles showed a signal for precip Friday night and Saturday which fits in with the NBM initialization. So have a 20 to 30 percent chance for mainly snow for this period. Again there is a decent spread in the forecast, so I would expect the details of the forecast to be variable until a better consensus develops. Overall there doesn't appear to be a strong dynamic system to impact the forecast area through the next seven days with the main impact being frigid temperatures as fronts pass through.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Will continue to watch for snow showers for the first couple of hours in the period, but chances for these to impact terminals remain too low to warrant mention in the TAFs. There should be somewhat of a lull in winds for the first few hours this period as well, as a sfc trough moves across the area. Once the trough passes and an associated boundary moves through terminals late this evening, NW winds should pick up again with gusts around 25 kts persisting most of the night. These winds should gradually decrease into the early part of Monday and diminish as high pressure moves in.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.