textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries possible today with low snow chances (20-30%) lingering into Friday and returning to northern KS Saturday night.

- Cold air returns today and sticks around through Saturday. Wind chills Saturday morning are forecast between -5 and -15F.

- Temperatures gradually warm through next week. A mix of rain/snow (20-40% chance) may impact the area Tuesday into early Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 436 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Shortwave trough is traversing out of the Rockies into KS with its associated 850mb and sfc lows situated nearby in the TX/OK panhandle region early this morning. This low pressure will trek south- southeastward across OK today, bringing NNE winds and building CAA into the area. This will limit highs to the 20s this afternoon, ending the brief warm-up this week. In terms of snow chances, the NAM Nest is by far the most robust of all the short-term guidance with its coverage and bringing light snowfall into northern KS out of NE this morning into the early afternoon. However, even that has backed off with its 06z run compared to its 00z output. The other CAMs vary a bit in their coverage and southern extent, but generally keep most snow bands north of the KS/NE border. Overall, frontogenesis looks rather weak and soundings don't look any more impressive in terms of lift within the mid-level moisture. Lift might be a little better in southern portions of our area closer to the low, but the low-level air is drier there. Perhaps there could be just enough to squeeze out some flurries, but it would seem much more than that would be hard to come by. There is another secondary vort max that comes out of the Rockies into OK this evening, and although southern portions of the area might see some improvement in moisture quality based on soundings, the lift doesn't look much better than today. As such, have kept PoPs low and focused on north central KS tonight. Similar trend continues through the day Friday as lift and moisture don't look to change much. HREF snow probs indicate a 50% or less chance of measurable snow through Friday evening, and most of that is confined to northern or north central KS. Overall would not expect much impact from any snow that falls.

We do see strengthened CAA Friday into Saturday morning as a more notable shortwave dives south through the Midwest. This brings highs down to the teens to low 20s both days, and Saturday morning lows between 0 and -5. Even with the sfc ridge following the upper wave and light winds, there could still be just enough wind to bring wind chills to borderline advisory criteria. Will continue to monitor that potential, although LREF probs for wind chills as low as -15 have lowered some.

Another weak shortwave comes near the area Saturday night into early Sunday, rounding the upper ridge to our west. There are still some differences in how far south any snow would be, with the Euro and Canadian most favoring northern KS while the GFS and NAM keep the system far enough north. Ensemble data suggest a 20-40% chance of measurable snow during this time period, so similar PoPs from the NBM seem reasonable.

The upper ridge looks to dampen some into early next week, but the increasing mid-level heights still favor a warming trend during that time. Precip chances return Tuesday into early Wednesday as a Pacific trough enters the region, but it may not become strong enough to provide enough forcing until it moves further east. Given the uncertainties, PoPs are limited to 20-40%. Also given the forecast temperatures it should be noted that if precip occurs, it could start as rain or a rain/snow mix before transitioning to light snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions are forecast. Winds increase out of the northeast today, looking to reach around or above 10 kts for at least part of this morning and afternoon before becoming lighter later this afternoon. Flurries have a low chance of impacting terminals, so will leave out any -SN mention. Winds may turn calm overnight as a sfc high moves in, so will need to watch for any fog or stratus. At this time, MVFR cigs may move in at the very end of the period, but will hold off for now until confidence increases.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.