textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier air moves in tonight and Monday behind a front.

- Active pattern continues through Friday with cool temperatures and multiple chances for rain and storms.

- Heating back up for next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Current surface observations depict a frontal boundary sagging southward across northern Kansas. Farther south, a prominent outflow boundary from last night's thunderstorms has settled into northern Oklahoma. While some instability is still present between the two boundaries, the environment overall is limited by cloud cover and a slightly cooler/drier boundary layer compared to south of the outflow boundary. So while a brief shower or storm can't be ruled out along the front this PM, severe weather chances look to stay south and west of the forecast area. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in for tomorrow. With the help of some lingering clouds, temperatures should be very pleasant for late June. Lows either side of 60 with highs likely staying in the upper 70s.

For the remainder of the week, we stay in a cool and active pattern. Flow aloft remains quasi-zonal with multiple fast-moving shortwaves. Each of these would offer chances for rain and storms as they move across the area. Timing these systems in such a setup is typically challenging, but for now guidance hints at Tuesday night, Thursday morning, and Friday being the best windows for seeing rain. The axis of greatest instability looks to set up to our west across the High Plains, where the greatest severe risk should stay. But as is often the case we'll have to watch for any organized cluster of convection if it can make its way east towards the forecast area.

By next weekend, guidance is in strong agreement in an anomalously deep trough developing over the Rockies. This would build upper ridging over the Midwest, with heat and humidity increasing across the Plains. When this trough eventually ejects eastward onto the Plains, near the very end of the forecast period, rain and thunderstorm chances will again increase.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Main challenge is ceiling heights as the cold front sags south towards the terminals over the next few hours. There are currently some IFR to MVFR ceilings towards the Nebraska border, but most forecast sounding show this becoming more scattered towards TOP. So will maintain prevailing VFR with a mention of scattered MVFR to locally IFR ceilings this evening and tonight. Winds become northerly behind the front this afternoon and remain so through the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.