textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mostly dry today and Memorial Day, although there is a low chance (15-20%) for some showers/storms across north central Kansas this evening and again Monday evening.

- The pattern turns more active Tuesday/Wednesday through the end of the week with periodic chances for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Broad troughing extends from a closed upper low over Manitoba into the Central Plains this morning with shortwave ridging over the southwest US. Surface high pressure over the forecast area has lead to light winds and mostly clear skies with temperatures falling into the 50s. This setup also has lead to the development of patchy fog with dense fog just to the southeast of the forecast area. Dense fog could push northwest into areas along and southeast of Interstate 35 this morning; will continue to monitor the need for a Dense Fog Advisory.

Southerly low-level winds today and Monday will bump temperatures back into the 80s, where they will stay through the majority of the week. Mainly dry conditions are expected today and Monday with a low chance (15-20%) for showers or storms to move into north central Kansas this evening and again Monday evening. The potential is slightly higher this evening and dry low-level air below the high- based showers/storms could support some gusty winds, although the severe risk is very low.

A more active pattern sets up by Tuesday/Wednesday as a dynamic closed low parks over the western CONUS with several waves of energy moving across the Central Plains through the end of the week. This leads to at least low chances for showers and storms everyday, with highest chances (50-70%) coming Thursday and Thursday night as a stronger wave lifts north across the region. There will be dry time mixed in between rounds of precipitation and overall amounts should be relatively light with the LREF showing a 40-65% chance of 1" of rain across the forecast area from Tuesday through Saturday. The overall pattern does not favor widespread severe weather, but there could be a few periods where marginally severe storms are possible. The Colorado State severe weather probabilities for northeast Kansas remain below 5% through the week while CIPS highlights a 5-10% chance for severe storms Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VSBY reduction from fog at KTOP continues through 13z or so before VFR conditions return at all sites. Southeast winds increase to 5-10 kts this afternoon before becoming lighter after sunset.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.