textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Another warm day is expected today with highs around 90.

- Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday evening with a risk for severe weather. Storms may be capable of large hail and damaging winds.

- Periods of showers and storms are forecast (60-85%) for Wednesday and Thursday. Parts of east central KS could get a couple inches or rain.

- Cooler weather moves into the region for Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A closed upper low was noted over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies per the 07Z water vapor imagery while upper ridging remained over the lower and middle MS river valley. Surface obs indicated an area of low pressure over northeast CO that has allowed good southerly low level flow from the TX gulf coast through the central plains. Richer moisture in the form of higher surface dewpoints had just begun to return through south TX. Meanwhile a weak stationary surface boundary extended from CO east through central and northeast NEB.

For today and tonight the forecast area is expected to remain mainly between the upper low to the west and upper ridging to the southeast. Models show an upper jet rotating through the base of the upper low with the right exit region of this jet influencing general subsidence across northeast KS this afternoon. Meanwhile the better low level moisture advection is progged to hold off until the overnight time frame. So models don't show much instability or forcing for precip. The one exception is the potential for some elevated showers developing within a warm air advection pattern near the NEB state line this evening. RAP and NAM isentropic surfaces show the better saturation within the lift staying just north of the forecast area. Nevertheless the 00Z HRRR develops some isolated shower activity across the northwestern counties. So can't completely rule out a brief shower and have some slight chance POPs near the state line. After midnight, the saturation lifts further north and east of the forecast area and should take any precip with it.

Models seem to be converging on a common solution with the pattern for Tuesday through Thursday with lower spread from the ensembles. Initially the forecast area will be under southwest flow aloft with the frontal boundary over NEB sagging south into parts of north central and northeast KS by Tuesday afternoon. This boundary looks to act as a focus for convection development but with most guidance indicating low level flow veered to the southwest ahead of the boundary, it may take some time for storms to initiate. It may be that storms develop southwest of the area and translate northeast along the front. In any case bulk shear around 50KT with a corridor of 2000 to 3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE will be supportive of severe storms and perhaps supercell thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main concern with any tornado risk conditional on whether low level winds can back enough to increase SRH. Storms also look to be efficient rain producers as PWs increase to around 2 inches. This would be a record value for precipital water and 2 to 3 standard deviations above the climatological mean. So we'll have to keep an eye out for flooding, especially if the frontal boundary is slow to move.

By Wednesday most guidance has the surface front pushing into east central KS with a lead shortwave lifting over the area. This wave could enhance the low level moisture advection over the frontal boundary with continued showers and storms during the day. Limited insolation and the front sliding south may prevent much destabilization and the risk for severe storms across east central KS. The better synoptic scale dynamics with the system are progged to impact the area Wednesday night and into Thursday morning as a weak surface wave lifts northeast along the boundary. The NBM keeps some categorical POPs across east central KS for this and see no reason to change it. Did however adjust highs cooler for Wednesday anticipating cloud cover and precip to inhibit a strong warm up. Still highs ranging from the middle 60s to the middle 70s may be a little warm if precip persists for much of the day. By the time the system exits to the east Thursday night, parts of east central KS could receive between 1 and 3 inches of rain and later shifts may want to consider a flood watch.

As the surface waves lifts past the forecast area Thursday evening, high pressure with increasing dry air advection is progged to build into the area. This should bring much cooler temperatures to the region for Friday and Saturday. A more zonal pattern is progged to develop late in the forecast period allowing southerly low level winds to redevelop by Sunday. This should allow temps to trend a little warmer into the 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Another breezy VFR day is expected with south and southwest winds gusting through the afternoon. Continued moisture advection overnight may lead to some lower CIGS developing towards 12Z Tue. Confidence in this is to low to include in the forecast just yet.

CLIMATE

Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Record High Temperature Information:

October 12 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 93, set in 1899 and 2024 91 Concordia 93, set in 1899 93

October 13 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 91, set in 1975 91 Concordia 90, set in 1975 83

Record Warmest Minimum Temperature Information:

October 12 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 68, set in 1890 and 1899 72 Concordia 67, set in 1975 73

October 13 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 69, set in 1962, 68, 75 71 Concordia 70, set in 1920 66

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.