textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- There may be a few early morning isolated showers with a random rumble of thunder or two mainly over north central areas as an MCS continues its track south through western Kansas. Generally have chances below 15% chance so overall impacts remain very low.

- The summer heat is still not ready to subside with persistent ridging in place through this weekend into next week. Expect heat indices around the 100 degree mark but right now holding below the 105 degree range, so no headlines at this time.

- Any rain and storm chances remain uncertain into the end of the weekend into early next week as the strength of the ridge and the strength of the western trough will impact overall storm tracks through the central Plains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Currently, WV imagery and 00Z RAOB data show a trough through the Great Lakes region with a Desert Southwest anticyclone and monsoonal plume of moisture streaming into southwestern CONUS. A Pacific trough is digging into western Canada and edging into the Pacific northwest region. Near the local area, western Kansas is seeing a MCS continue its track from north to south and showing some overall slowing which suggests perhaps an overall weakening trend in the convective updrafts and equalizing of the cold pooling effects. The local area is under mainly the cirrus shield from this convection and not likely to see any meaningful impact other than that. A few early showers again can't be totally ruled out over north central areas but still a less than 15% probability at this point.

Today will see the mid to upper level ridge continue to broaden and spread across the area. This will allow for H85 temps to rise into the 20-30C range over the next few days with ensemble data spreads remaining narrow and generally trending up through the weekend with high temperatures into the 90s area wide with dewpoints holding into the middle 60s. Forecast soundings suggest a typical late August depiction with an inverted V setup suggesting good compressional warming in the afternoons with dry conditions in place. Due to the mixing and holding dewpoints in the middle 60s do think that right now, head headlines aren't likely to reach to the 105 degree range at least widespread enough to need heat headlines at this time. Additionally, this is late season heat so acclimation is not an issue but more irritation wondering when will it ever end. Answer, not this week.

The flattening of the broad ridge across the central CONUS into late weekend into the early part of the upcoming week will have implications for resulting storms tracks which may act to provide cooling to portions of the area if showers and storms do result. Currently, the setup appears to favor a trend for the best ascent and thus height fall to remain north of the area even into the northern Plains. Ultimately, this is the part of the forecast which appears to be the most uncertain at this time due to the low sampling rate of the Pacific trough setting up. For the central CONUS, this appears to result in minor overall forecast changes with no significant weather systems entering the area but more likely any changes would come in the form of mesoscale systems such as a resultant MCS which days out can be near impossible to forecast the outcome. Regardless, favored tracks of any such system appear along and just north of the area at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR at terminals as slightly better mixing in the low levels has increased south winds around 10 kts sustained, gusting occasionally to 20 kts during the afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast August 30 Topeka 79, set in 1932 75 Concordia 78, set in 1951 78

August 31 Topeka 77, set in 1912 and 1947 78 Concordia 81, set in 1947 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.