textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend through the week with highs 5-15 degrees above normal by late week.

- Warm overnight lows with no freeze concerns.

- A few stray showers possible early week with better chances for rain late into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Mid day temperatures took a nice jump into the middle 60s this past hour, on what has been a clear and somewhat breezy fall day across the forecast area. While the visible satellite is clear, water vapor shows a shortwave moving over the state this hour, likely assisting with the increase in winds and the jump in temperatures as it passes. Radar also indicating another day of active returns around water bodies as the fall migration continues.

The contiguous US remains under the influence of an omega block type pattern, with both eastern and western trofs that wane but are again reinforced over time. The overall trend in the forecast is a warming one, with the NBM tightly clustered around highs and lows that rise a few degrees each day, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 by late week. Worth noting that the NBM has been on the cool side with the high temperatures, so went on the higher side of guidance in the short term. Some increase in mid level moisture due to shortwave trofs moving into the plains Monday and Tuesday afternoons have some guidance giving a low chance for a shower, but the low level moisture appears to be enough to evaporate most attempts. Better chances may come over the weekend as the western trof finally advances eastward into the Central US, but the continued tropical activity over western Mexico and its influences in the position and strength of that trof leave uncertainty to strength and timing of what can develop.

No freezing temperatures in the forecast this week, with overnight lows rising back into the 50s by Wednesday morning. The warm and breezy conditions could warrant some fire weather concerns, however with the lack so far of a widespread hard freeze, vegetation should continue to hold moisture to help mitigate widespread concerns.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty southwest winds diminish quickly toward sunset, and are expected to pick up again on Monday with late morning mixing late in the TAF period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.