textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Oppressive heat continues through Saturday for most of the area. Extreme Heat Warning has been extended until then with the exception of the Hwy 36 corridor.

- After storms end this morning, chances for scattered storms return tonight and Saturday night. A few storms may produce severe wind during these time frames, though confidence is low.

- Relief from the heat arrives Sunday. Temperatures look to warm a bit towards mid-week, but not nearly as hot as this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

An area of thunderstorms continues to fester from central KS into our north central KS zones early this morning, thanks to a LLJ supporting maintenance of these storms. Since they have persisted in the same general location for several hours, the environment is well worked over at this point, so not expecting severe activity with these. Fortunately, rainfall rates have been slow enough to preclude flooding issues for the time being. As the nose of the LLJ pushes north, that should eventually move storms north into the predawn hours before dissipating. On the larger scale, sfc low pressure remains in southwest KS into the OK panhandle with an associated front hanging around our area through today. Counties along the Hwy 36 corridor look to have just enough cloud cover with the boundary just far enough south to keep temperatures from getting as hot as they will be south of the front. As such, those northern counties have a lower probability of reaching criteria to continue heat headlines. Elsewhere, another day of oppressive heat is expected as temperatures and dew points combine to bring heat indices into the 105-110 degree range. The front doesn't appear to make meaningful progress into Saturday, so opted to extend the Extreme Heat Warning with similar conditions expected that day.

Regarding storm chances, there may be enough convergence along the sfc boundary to develop scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon to early evening both today and Saturday. Confidence in coverage isn't all that high for tonight in particular, as CAM guidance hasn't been consistent either between models or from run to run. Confidence in storms developing Saturday looks better, but with varying ideas on placement between models. In any case, with little change to the synoptic pattern and overall environment from the last several days, can't rule out a few storms producing severe winds.

Relief from the heat finally arrives Sunday as the front finally pushes south of the area, and the ridge aloft flattens and places zonal flow over the area through mid-week. Sunday and Monday see highs in the 80s with perhaps a few low 90s -- much more manageable. Temperatures are forecast to warm slightly towards the middle of the week with southerly low-level flow returning, but ensembles also show widening ranges towards the end of the forecast period. This is likely due to perturbations aloft bringing more chances for rain with another front in the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Showers at MHK should diminish in the first hour or so of the period. From there, winds pick back up from the south later this morning, most likely getting around 10 kts or above at TOP/FOE. Winds turn light and variable early this evening with a frontal boundary in the area, which could also bring a shower or storm, but coverage looks too low to mention in TAFs at this time.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.