textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Late summer heat is expected to persist this week. A heat advisory remains in effect for most of the area until 7pm today.

- Parts of norther central Kansas may see a stray shower or storm this morning. Otherwise dry weather is expected into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

07Z water vapor imagery placed the center of the upper ridge over the Ozarks while a subtle shortwave kicked off some convection over western KS. Surface obs showed a weak boundary stretched from southwest through north central KS. The better moisture and instability was found pooled north of the boundary with some southerly winds still mixing lower dewpoints to the surface south of the boundary.

The models show the surface boundary or inverted trough axis hanging out close to it's current position through the day today and then lifting north tonight. There is a general lack of dynamics progged to lift over the boundary today while forecast soundings for a mixed parcel maintaining some modest inhibition to convection. And CAMs don't really develop any additional showers or storms once this morning activity dies off. With isentropic surfaces keeping the better mid level saturation just north of the state line today, potential for additional elevated shower activity looks to be limited and have a dry forecast with skies becoming sunny to mostly sunny. This brings us to highs for today. The NBM had under performed yesterday and have leaned a little more heavily on the operational progs of 925MB and 850MB temps mixed to the surface. For areas along and north of the trough axis, highs may only make it into the middle and upper 90s due to limited mixing. But for most of the area, think we should see highs again in the 100 to 103 degree range. Even with some mixing of the boundary layer moisture, heat indices are forecast to reach the 100 to 105 range again this afternoon and have continued the heat advisory without any changes.

Precip chances for the rest of the week and through next weekend appear to be pretty slim. There is the off chance for a stray perturbation rounding the upper ridge to spark some shower activity. But the predictability of these meso scale features are limited. So think the NBM forecast for POPs around 10 percent or less is pretty reasonable. With the upper ridge sliding east through mid week, the lower heights seem to be translating to slightly cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. There is also expected to be reasonable mixing of the boundary layer keeping dewpoint temps in the lower and middle 60s. As a result, heat indices are not expected to be as hot for Tuesday an why the heat advisory has not been extended past this evening.

The main change in the pattern for the extended part of the forecast is the progged redevelopment of the upper ridge over the central plains by the end of the week and lasting through the weekend. The last several runs of the ECMWF have been consistent in the redevelopment of the ridge right over KS and is supported by the 00Z GFS and AIGFS. So why WPC/NBM is forecasting highs in the lower to middle 90s this weekend is puzzling. Cluster analysis of the 12Z ensembles showed more than 50 percent of the members also have the center of the upper ridge over the forecast area. And while increasing spreads in the envelop of possible temperatures may explain a gradual cooling trend in the extended forecast, the 01Z NBM keeps highs in the middle and upper 90s for Friday and Saturday in contrast to the WPC forecast. Cluster analysis showed only about 15 and 20 percent of the members had a pattern supportive of the cooler temps. Meanwhile the 00Z ECMWF/GFS and 12Z LREF would suggest the upper 90s to around 100 heat should persist through next weekend. So I think the forecast is a little to optimistic suggesting cooler temps this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Weakening showers to the west are expected to fall apart or track north before reaching the terminals due to the upper ridging. VFR conditions are forecast to persist.

CLIMATE

Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 1 Topeka 81, set in 2011 77 Concordia 80, set in 1913 78

September 2 Topeka 80, set in 2011 78 Concordia 79, set in 1929 78

September 3 Topeka 77, set in 1939 78 Concordia 80, set in 1947 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.