textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions continue through Friday. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for areas along and south of a Concordia to Holton line. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Wednesday for areas along the Highway 36 corridor.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms each day, highest chances across northern Kansas into Nebraska during the overnight and early morning hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Little change to the synoptic pattern has occurred over the past 24 hours, leading to almost a carbon-copy of yesterday's weather. Morning showers have waned and cloud cover has thinned, allowing temperatures to heat up. Dewpoints are slightly lower across north central Kansas where temperatures are in the upper 90s and low 100s, but dewpoints remain in the low 70s across eastern Kansas where temperatures are in the 90s. The net result is widespread heat indices around 105 degrees.

A weak surface boundary sags into northern Kansas on Wednesday, leading to uncertainty in how hot temperatures will reach. While cloud debris and showers along the boundary across far northern Kansas could keep conditions slightly cooler than forecast, heat index values are expected to reach 102-105 degrees for at least a couple of hours. Further south, expect another hot and humid day with heat index values again in the 105-110 degree range. The southward progression of the front continues to slow, leading to increasing confidence in hot and humid conditions holding for the majority of the area through at least Friday. Given the prolonged period of heat indices of 103-110, an Extreme Heat Warning has been issued through Friday for areas along and south of a Concordia to Holton line. Far northern Kansas is progged to see slightly lower temperatures/heat indices Thursday and Friday, but speed of the front will need to be monitored for any potential northward expansion of the Extreme Heat Warning.

The aforementioned surface boundary could spark some showers or storms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Additional development occurs Wednesday evening and evolves into an MCS overnight along the nose of the LLJ. Highest chances remain north of the forecast area into Nebraska, but there is a chance some of this activity reaches into far northern Kansas and produce some strong wind gusts and small hail. Periodic chances for showers and storms continue through the end of the week as the boundary holds across the area. Best chances will be along the nose of the LLJ during the overnight hours; guidance highlights northern Kansas into Nebraska as the most likely area to be impacted. There is a low risk for strong to severe storms from any convection that does impact the area, but widespread severe weather is unlikely. A stronger cold front is progged to move through this weekend and knock temperatures back to near-normal, although the speed of this front has begun to slow as well.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions continue. South-southwest winds of 10-15 kts weaken late this afternoon. Marginal LLWS conditions set up again overnight, but shear is mainly unidirectional and favors low-level turbulence over LLWS.

CLIMATE

Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Highest Minimum Temperature Records

August 11 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 82 (1913) 78 Concordia 77 (2021) 80

August 12 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1913) 79 Concordia 80 (1943) 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ011-KSZ012. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.