textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers ending this morning.

- Warmer and drier conditions build in by the weekend.

- Next chance for widespread storms come Saturday PM along a cold front (40-60% chances).

- Much warmer weather is forecast for early next week when parts of the area could see highs in the 90s by next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Early this morning, mid-level water vapor imagery showed two separate waves coming into phase with one another - one over the 4- corners region and the other in the northern Midwest. This has led to continued PVA across the central Plains as the mid-level trough axis pushes across the Rockies. Widespread lift noted ahead of the wave has lead to scattered rain showers over Kansas where showers are expected to continue over the next several hours. By the later morning hours, mid-level lift breaks down as subsidence builds in from Nebraska and ends shower activity. The remainder of the day today will remain under the influence of low-level high pressure. This paired with the cool air mass in place and ample cloud cover will lead to afternoon temperatures not warming much. Expect highs this afternoon only topping out in the mid to upper 50s. Clouds begin to scatter out late this evening in to Thursday morning as the mid-level trough axis passes to our east. This should lead to efficient cooling by Thursday morning as lows bottom out in the low 40s and upper 30s. Some spots across north-central KS may approach the mid to low 30s, but with winds keeping things a bit mixed near the surface, not overly concerned with a widespread frost developing.

A warming trend continues from Thursday into the weekend as increasing mid-level heights and WAA boost temperatures back into the low to mid 70s for Thursday and mid to upper 70s by Friday. Gulf moisture becomes a bit more open to the Plains by early Friday morning so some 50 degree dewpoints are expected to push north into Kansas by Friday evening and into Saturday. The low-level moisture paired with some weak waves embedded in northwesterly flow could lead to some thunderstorm activity Friday evening, but better forcing looks best just to our south and east. A more compact wave Saturday evening acts to push a boundary through the area returning widespread chances for rain and storms to the area. There is a possibility for some storms across the boundary Saturday evening to be on the stronger side given cooling aloft and decent wind shear, but confidence is not high in where these parameters will set up.

Dry weather builds back in by Sunday with surface ridging dominating the region. Mid-level heights are expected to increase through the early week leading to strong WAA. Some of the warmest air we have seen in the last month will likely be seen by Tuesday as most areas see highs top out in the low to mid 90s!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Dry air with the surface ridge will limit precip chances to less than 10 percent as mid and high clouds gradually shift south through tonight. VFR conditions should prevail.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.