textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
-Above average daytime temperatures dominate the forecast this weekend and next week.
-Near record high temperatures are expected on Monday.
-Confidence in precipitation chances remain low.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Breezy north winds are keeping conditions a little cooler than yesterday, but still above climatological normals for early February. The north wind will relax this evening as surface high pressure continues to move southward into the area. Winds will shift to the southeast tonight as high pressure moves eastward, then will increase out of the south for the afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow will likely be comparable to today before much warmer conditions take shape late this weekend and early next week.
A mid-level shortwave trough axis moves over the region on Sunday without much impact to our weather. Highs should reach the low 60s. Surface low pressure then deepens north and west of the area on Monday, allowing for southwesterly flow and warm air advection. NBM model spread in temperatures on Monday is very low, lending high confidence to forecast highs around 70 degrees, which is just a degree or two below record highs for the day (see the climate section below).
A cold front associated with the low pressure west of here looks to move through Tuesday morning. Better chances for precipitation with that system still appear to be south of here, but have continued slight chance POPs for now. From there, long range models begin to diverge on solutions into the later part of next week. The NBM keeps low POPs around late in the week since some models show that possibility. However, confidence is not high on precipitation chances at any one time next week. If precip manages to develop, temperatures look warm enough to mainly support rain instead of snow.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 501 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
North winds decrease over the next couple hours, becoming very light and generally southeasterly by sunrise. By late morning winds will pick back up, from the south at around 10 kts. Best chance of any fog looks to stay west of KMHK, leaving VFR conditions in place.
CLIMATE
Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
February 9, 2026 Record High Forecast High Topeka 72 (1932) 70 Concordia 70 (1996) 68
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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