textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Afternoon heat indices of 100 to 110 common through at least Friday.

- Small risks for severe thunderstorms for much of the area Thursday afternoon and evening, Friday evening, and Saturday evening.

- Cooler temperatures for some Sunday, and for the entire area Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move across northern Kansas behind a weak outflow boundary and in modest high- level isentropic upglide in westerly flow aloft under east to light surface flow. This pattern changes somewhat later today and tonight with more southwesterly upper flow and have kept the bulk of tonight dry. Thunderstorm chances look to return to at least central Kansas Thursday afternoon and evening as surface low pressure forms in this area. Convergence may be enough to overcome CIN per several CAMs. CAPE and shear could support a few strong to severe storms with mainly a wind risk. An increasing low-level jet could support this activity into the evening but better convergence should shift north during the night. The surface boundary looks to stay in the area Friday into Saturday before shifting south of the area into Sunday. Precipitation chances remain modest until the front moves through during the late weekend with greater coverage likely immediately behind it, but shear and instability could allow for a few more strong to marginally severe storms Friday evening and Saturday evening. A more zonal flow regime sets up early next week with could support some isolated to scattered convection.

As for temperatures and apparent temperatures, today's outflow and isolated precipitation have taken temps down slightly on average, but not much impact. Dewpoints are also similar though slightly lower on average. Northern areas may struggle to reach Heat Advisory levels today if the precip lingers but am not confident enough to cancel it. For Thursday, temperatures could be some of the warmest of the recent stretch in deeper southwest flow but even using some of the higher dewpoint forecasts that have verified better recently, northern areas struggle to reach Advisory levels. Concerning heat could last into Saturday but if the dewpoint trends hold and the front or outflow is a bit faster, this may not pan out. Overall, have left the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory as-is and let later shifts monitor trends. Noticably-cooler conditions remain on track for Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR at terminals this forecast period. LLWS remains on track to develop from 08-09Z from the southwest up to 45 kts. Scattered high clouds are noted throughout the afternoon, increasing at KMHK as isolated storms are possible west of KMHK towards 23Z. Coverage and location of storms are uncertain so will not mention impacts in the TAF at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Highest Minimum Temperature Records

August 12 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1913) 80 Concordia 80 (1943) 78

August 13 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1936) 78 Concordia 83 (1936) 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.