textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold MLK Jr. Day before warming back near normal through the work week.

- Cold returns by the weekend with chances for snow beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into Sunday (30% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Cold air continues to filter in to eastern Kansas following yesterday's cold front passage. Surface ridging has made its way into central Nebraska and has begun to weaken pressure gradients across the warning area as winds and wind gusts are slowly decreasing. Surface ridging will dominate the weather today as afternoon highs will not likely warm out of the 20s regardless of the mostly clear skies. By this evening, the surface ridge axis slides east and shifts low-level flow back out of the southwest, beginning the warm-up for the remainder of the work week.

Tuesday through Thursday will be highlighted by near-normal highs and lows with dry weather. A weak pacific front is progged to pass through the area Tuesday night, but most forcing and moisture are progged to stay north and east of the area.

The most notable weather change comes Friday and into the weekend as northwesterly flow aloft turns zonal following the passage of a large upper low over the Great Lakes. The passage of the aforementioned low will push arctic air into the central and southern Plains behind a cold front early Friday. At the same time, a weak low that has been settled over the southwestern US will come into phase with a digging PNW trough and begin to eject energy into the central and southern Plains. At this time, the Euro keeps a stronger, more negatively tilted and northern solution to the open phased wave Friday night into Saturday while the GFS keeps a weaker and more southern solution with the SW upper low staying more un- phased with the PNW trough. There is good agreement with high temperatures getting back into the teens and 20s Friday through Sunday so any precipitation that comes our way will likely fall as snow. The main question this far out is how much moisture and precipitation will make it way this far north as most guidance pinpoints central Oklahoma to Arkansas as the main axis of QPF and snowfall. That said, given that this system is still an open wave, it is more apt to change within models over the next several days. Stay tuned for further updates on this system over the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail with some stratus around 3-4kft at Topeka terminals currently, but this should move south pretty early on, leaving behind only high clouds. The main aviation impact will be the gusty NW winds through the overnight hours. Have seen some gusts up to 40 kts currently, though this should be on the high side of what we see with gradually decreasing winds as we go through the night. Gusts should subside by daylight hours as sfc high pressure moves across the area. Winds eventually turn to the west and southwest toward the end of this period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.