textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- One more morning of hazardous wind chills with the Cold Weather Advisory remaining in effect through noon today.

- A gradual warm-up takes shape through Wednesday.

- Colder temperatures return late week (not as cold as the last few days) with a 20-30% chance for snow early Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

A mid-level shortwave trough is sweeping across the Plains early this morning while a 1037mb sfc high sits right over the state. Most of the mid to high cloud cover associated with the upper wave is trekking just south of our forecast area, setting the stage for good radiational cooling, especially with the new snowpack. Temperatures are at or below zero area-wide as of 3am and will continue to fall to a few degrees on either side of -10 near sunrise. Winds are light with the sfc ridge in place, but even so, they have led to wind chills between -15 and -20 already. The Cold Weather Advisory remains in place until noon. Winds will eventually turn to the southwest and strengthen through the morning as the sfc high slides southeast, and the WAA should help to bring highs to the 20s under sunny skies. Winds look a bit on the breezy side today as the pressure gradient tightens with troughing developing in the Northern Plains in response to a clipper coming out of south central Canada.

That clipper passes through the Upper Midwest tonight into tomorrow, turning our temperature advection neutral for Tuesday, though we look slightly warmer with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s. Southerly low-level winds return Wednesday, helping everyone to see highs above freezing for the first time in nearly a week. It looks short- lived, however, as a more notable wave within the northwest flow aloft brings slightly cooler air Thursday followed by a stronger system to our east that brings still colder air for Friday. While this doesn't look as cold as the last few days, it is favored to bring wind chills below zero Saturday morning and perhaps Friday morning as well. Snow chances are still low, but have increased to 20-30% so this will be something to watch as we go forward.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conditions prevail with mostly clear skies. Light winds turn southwesterly and pick up around 17-18Z with gusts around 20-25 kts through the afternoon and most of the evening. There is a 40-45 kt LLJ that develops overhead this evening, but sfc winds should stay up enough during that time frame to preclude LLWS. Winds diminish and veer slightly toward the end of this period.

CLIMATE

Updated at 246 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Record Low Temperature Jan 26 Forecast Low Topeka -10, set in 1904 -9 Concordia -10, set in 1902 and 1904 -7

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.