textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm tomorrow, then turning cold again by the end of the week into the weekend.

- Dry pattern continues. No notable precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed a longer wave length upper level trough across the eastern US, with a shorter wave length upper level trough shifting east across the TN Valley into GA. An upper level ridge was centered across the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the CA coast.

The 18Z surface map showed a ridge of high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes, southwest into east TX. Southerly winds on the west side of the surface ridge have eroded much of the stratus across the CWA earlier this morning. Surface temperatures were in the mid to upper 30s.

Tonight through Monday:

All the extended range models are in agreement with the longer wave length upper level trough remaining stationary across the eastern US through the next week. The mid and upper flow will be northwesterly across the Plains. As shorter wave length troughs round the eastern Pacific H5 ridge they will dig southeast out of western Canada across the northern Plains and Great Lake States. The DCVA ahead of these clipper systems will be located across the northern Plains and may extend southward to IA and the mid MS River Valley, so the CWA should stay dry. Expect a temperatures roller coaster. Tomorrow, with southwest-west surface winds we will experience WAA from down slope flow across eastern CO into western KS/NE. Highs temperatures will reach the mid 50s northeast to lower 60s southwest.

As the shorter wave length upper troughs did southeast and amplify the longer wave length H5 trough across the eastern US, a series of cold front will push southward across the CWA. The first front passing through Tuesday night will only drop Wednesday and Thursday high temperatures down into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

A stronger front will push southward across the area Thursday night brining the western fringe of an arctic airmass southward across the CWA Friday and Saturday. Highs Friday may struggle to make it to freezing along the I-70 corridor, with upper 20s expected for highs along the NE border. After overnight lows Friday night in the teens, highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 20s to lower 30s across most of the CWA, with highs in the mid 20s across the northeast counties.

Sunday, The 1040mb surfacer ridge across the eastern Dakotas will build southeast across MO into the western OH River Valley. An easterly wind will continue to advect colder air westward across the CWA, with only a slight improvement in high temperatures, reaching the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Monday, a slightly more zonal flow upper air pattern, along with southerly surface winds should warm high temperatures into the 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The IFR/low MVFR stratus should begin to erode through 20Z. Expect mostly clear skies through the night. If min Ts go below the crossover temperature, then there may be ground fog. Most CAMs show it being too mixy through the early morning for ground fog to develop the 12Z NAM shows more fog development which will become a low IFR/MVFR stratus deck. So the next shift will have to watch on this potential.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.