textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat continues through Saturday, with the Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning still in place. Heat indices in the 100-110 range expected.

- Low storm chances each day along and north of a stalled frontal boundary. Marginal risk for a few strong to severe storms, mainly Thursday and Friday evenings.

- Cold front finally brings temperatures back towards average Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The main forecast concern in the short term is a weakening bow-echo that has moved southeast from South Dakota into northern Nebraska. While the core of this bow and the associated severe risk should stay north into Nebraska, it is increasingly likely that its outflow boundary will push into northeast Kansas during the daytime hours today. Depending on the strength of this outflow and the amount of lingering showers and weak storms behind it, this may help to limit afternoon temperatures and heat indices by a few degrees, particularly towards the Nebraska border. It will be hot and humid regardless though, particularly south of wherever the outflow boundary ends up before washing out. Will keep the current Heat Advisory and Heat Warning in place, as heat indices will most likely still approach 110 along/south of I-70 and 105 north of I-70. A few more showers and storms may redevelop overnight north of the boundary near the Nebraska border, but weak forcing and strong CIN should keep the overall thunderstorm potential low.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will remain hot. Temperatures will likely remain a few degrees lower along the stationary boundary near the Nebraska border, but most places elsewhere will climb into the upper 90s with heat indices in the mid/upper 100s. Low temperatures only in the upper 70s will cause additional heat stress. There will be a continued potential for a few scattered storms to develop along and just north of the boundary, most likely towards north-central KS Thursday and Friday evenings. Inverted-V profiles with modest shear suggest the potential for northeastward moving clusters with isolated damaging winds and perhaps some small hail.

We finally see some improvement by Sunday as the front begins to push southward through the area. There is still some uncertainty in guidance in exactly how fast it will move through. A slower frontal progression would likely keep temperatures across east-central KS in the upper 90s, while a faster frontal push could keep temperatures in the 80s area-wide. Regardless, model spread is lower for Monday, with post-frontal high temperatures mostly back in the 80s. Some continued low chances for showers and storms will possible along and behind the front, but with little upper support coverage should remain scattered.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue. It appears isolated high-based convection will remain north of the terminals and should diminish. Winds likely will vary somewhat but should be mainly from the south and light. Diurnal LLWS potential is low but will need to be watched.

CLIMATE

Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Highest Minimum Temperature Records

August 12 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1913) 79 Concordia 80 (1943) 78

August 13 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1936) 79 Concordia 83 (1936) 78

August 14 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 84 (1936) 78 Concordia 79 (1913) 74

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.