textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms possible this evening, mainly towards central Kansas. Wind/hail the main hazards.

- Better chance for severe storms Sunday into Sunday night. Still a fair amount of uncertainty, but large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all possible.

- There is a minor change in the Monday period for now as the some forecast models suggest that the cold front may be slow enough to move east that a few morning storms could linger across eastern areas. Would expect mainly a large hail and wind threat during the morning period but this appears to be an overall low chance outcome.

- Cooler and near normal temperature remain in place for the balance of the upcoming week after the cold front pushes through the area late Sunday into early Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A complex 24 to 36 hrs looks to be setting up before a solid frontal system finally pushes through the area taking much of the severe weather potential east and southeast of the area into Monday morning.

Currently, the primary upper low pressure system resides north of the CONUS just into south central Canada. The main trough axis extends into and through northern California into the eastern Pacific just off the coast of southern California. A complex series of shortwave disturbances continue to lift across the southern and central Rockies into the central Plains region. As of this hour, a low amplitude lead shortwave is over north-central Kansas into south- central Nebraska. Sufficient ascent with weak height falls is just enough to cause a few showers and storms over south-central Nebraska areas early this afternoon. One storm briefly looked impressive right along the quasi-stationary cold front over south-central Nebraska with a semi-persistent BWER and strong updraft core before subsequently collapsing. Generally, a few storms this afternoon can be expected along the weak surface low pressure area that is over west central Kansas areas. Mainly showers have been scattered over central into north-central Kansas areas with overall weak ascent in place. However, into this afternoon with sufficiently steep mid- level lapse rates in place and thus 1-2K J/kg instability into the area, can't rule out a couple of storms that may become severe later this afternoon into this evening. Would still anticipate mainly hail and wind threats but a tornado could be possible west mainly along the boundary which is most probable just west of the TOP forecast area. Right now tornado probabilities into the area remain low overall with hail and wind best into central Kansas areas. The semi- persistent areas of showers only help to keep this idea in check as the afternoon wears on.

Sunday, could start with morning showers and storms as weak convergence along the LLJ maintains a few areas of showers and storms as one of the primary shortwaves lift into the Rockies from the southwest. This will act to bring additional height falls to the central Plains into the morning and through the day as the surface low pressure develops off the lee of the Rockies and deepens over southwestern Kansas areas before lifting northeast into and likely through the forecast area into the Sunday evening hours. Regarding the morning storm potential, could see mainly a hail threat as storms are likely to be elevated. Clearing into the afternoon appears to be on the docket with a weak cap in place with the southwest flow aloft which becomes more southerly through the the lower levels of the atmosphere as the more amplified shortwave works into the area taking on a slight negative tilt. This will increase more quality more moist transport into the area with higher overall theta-e air advecting north thus increasing the dewpoints to around 70 especially southern areas. The main concern really ramps up into the evening hours and possibly even after dark as the LLJ increases to 50kts or possibly higher. Concern becomes nighttime tornado potential to set up across the area especially with the track of the low itself working across the area. If this is indeed the scenario, then expect a busy evening if storms can stay semi-discrete which could be a reasonable scenario with 0-6km shear vectors largely orthogonal off the cold front as the dryline itself may just be south of the area. Again, very large hail possibly greater than 2 inches, damaging winds 70 mph or greater with any bowing segment that may develop if storms congeal and also supercellular nighttime tornadoes could be in play especially with the elongated nature of the hodographs as the LLJ ramps up. Flooding doesn't appear to be all the high on the list since it appears storms should be progressive once they begin and the lack of overall shear vectors being parallel to the boundary.

Monday morning may be a potential gotcha for elevated hail if the front does slow slightly into the overnight period and enough residual instability remains aloft behind the front but this again appears to be a low probability outcome. After the system moves through expect a transition to a more quasi-zonal to northwest flow pattern with highs and lows near normal for the week ahead and possibly ridging into next weekend. Outside of a few chances for periods of precipitation into the latter part of the upcoming week, should remain mostly quiet weather-wise.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Winds out of the ESE this afternoon continue to gradually back to the ENE into this evening and overnight and outside of any thunderstorms this evening can be expected to relax to generally 10 kts or below. Showers remain over western areas around KMHK for the next few hours as a weak wave aloft lift to northeast with the southern flank moving just northeast of the KMHK terminal. Can't rule out a brief shower or two. Best chance for thunder remain northwest of the terminal so have only gone with TEMPO mention for showers. This evening there could be thunderstorms that work into the area from west to east, so have included a PROB30 mention with low confidence as of now. Into the overnight and early morning periods, as low level moisture returns, there could be low end marginal VFR cigs or even a few hours of IFR cigs with stratus and possibly showers mainly over central Kansas areas which could impact the KMHK terminal but again confidence in this scenario is too low to include.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.