textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry today and most of Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s into the 90s.

- Chances for showers/storms return Wednesday evening and continue through Friday, though it won't be raining the entire time.

- Near to above average temperatures hold this week before heat builds early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Ridging dominates the Central Plains both aloft and at the surface early this morning, keeping weak flow over the area. The boundary layer appears to be just slightly less saturated than the last couple of days with Td depressions a degree or two larger for most of the area. The exception would be for low-lying spots such as river valleys, where patchy fog may still be observed at times through the morning as we have briefly seen at TOP already. Conditions this afternoon overall look similar to yesterday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s under mostly sunny skies. Some shortwave energy rounding the upper ridge may trigger convection in the High Plains this evening, but with little instability and increasing CIN, am not anticipating that will make it this far east overnight tonight.

The pattern starts to change Wednesday as embedded perturbations within the mean westerlies to our north help to flatten the ridge and bring more zonal flow aloft. Low-level winds picking up from the south bring temperatures up a few more degrees with all locations looking to reach the 90s. Most or all of the daytime hours should remain dry before storm chances increase in the evening and especially overnight. Most guidance develops storms north and west of us in NE, CO, and western KS in the late afternoon, and holds off activity here until after midnight. The 00z HRRR hints at a few isolated storms developing in north central KS in the late afternoon in an uncapped environment, but it also appears to be overdoing the BL mixing, so am hesitant to buy into that solution at this time. However, given the weak forcing involved, models may struggle with timing of storms so even though current expectations are for late evening and overnight, that could still change. Instability should be high enough to keep storms going, but modest shear around 20-25 kts keeps their intensity in question. Main risk with any storms that may maintain their strength could bring severe wind gusts into north central KS.

Some rain/clouds may linger through Thursday morning, and while there should be a break before the next wave brings the next potential round of storms, it's uncertain how far into the day it will be before clouds clear out. If it takes longer, temperatures would be cooler than forecast and instability would be lower as well. Shear looks slightly better, so perhaps this could be enough to support a few marginally severe storms Thursday night. The baroclinic zone (though likely washed out by this point) looks to hang around the area through Friday, keeping at least slight chances for rain around until pushing south over the weekend. With this in mind, Friday could also be a day that sees temperatures cooler than forecast if there are more clouds and rain.

Ensembles and cluster analysis are in strong agreement on the upper ridge building over the central part of the country early next week, favoring a return to hotter temperatures further into the 90s. This may also bring heat indices back to the triple digits.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions should generally prevail. The boundary layer looks to be less saturated than the last couple of days, but wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow ground fog in the river valley at TOP, so will maintain that mention. Otherwise light winds continue with mainly clear sky outside of diurnal cu in the afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.