textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Some localized patchy fog mainly across low-lying areas possibly through sunrise. Not expecting any areas with fog to become dense.

- Warm temperatures potentially well above normal in some periods by the end of the weekend into early next week are looking highly likely.

- Mainly dry with a low chance for light rain possibly by Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Currently, a highly amplified positively tilted trough is extended along the spine of the Appalachians into the Gulf coast region. The dominate feature in the upper levels set to impact the local area temperatures for the bulk of the 5-7 day forecast is that of a Rex Block over the western CONUS into the Baja region. This is causing a highly amplified and broad ridge to become established over the western CONUS and effectively blocking any potential source of cold air in Canada from spilling into the region. Thus, a high confidence warm and mainly dry forecast appears to be on tap across the area for at least the next week.

Earlier an inverted surface ridge shifted through the area with a deck of stratus also shifting east of the area. Temporary clearing led to a window of efficient radiational cooling to set up which has caused a few spots to see patch fog form across low-lying areas. A higher level veil of cirrus has been spilling into the region around the forward flank of the broader ridge out west. There are areas through around sunrise that will see varying thickness in the associated cirrus so have mentioned patchy fog across mainly low- lying ares which arean't expected to see dense fog formation but more of an acknowledgment that patchy fog will form then diminish and possibly come back before sunrise then quickly mix out as winds begin to increase in advance of a modified cold front entering the area by mid morning into midday. Even with the weak boundary moving into the area, H85 temps reach around 9-10C today which should help push temperatures to the upper 50s and even low 60s over north- central areas.

High pressure slides into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley into Saturday with another slight intrusion of cooler air across the area into Saturday. Friday and Saturday look to be the coolest of the next several days with highs only in the 50s. Still very nice by February standards. Heights rise and H85 temps become more steady and slightly increase by Sunday into the early part of next week. Expect the high range of the temperature forecast to be in play with a breach into the 70 degree range especially on Monday as spreads in the data set remain tight and have consistently favored trending temperatures higher overall with the upper ridge firmly in control.

The long-range pattern may see a small chance for some rain to set up with a more southwest flow regime developing by mid-week next week as south Pacific low pressure systems move east as the blocking pattern flattens and the broader ridge shifts east and de-amplifies. Much colder air still doesn't have a mechanism to be pulled south through this forecast period, so any larger trough advancing east into late next week looks to probably bring more rain chances rather than snow and still hold temperatures above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Any fog has remained patchy at best overnight but the winds continue to increase so to start the period, any lingering patchy fog would seem unlikely. Winds will be the primary focus for this period as a weak cold front pushes into the area around midday. A few gusts post FROPA will likely occur this afternoon before relaxing into sunset. Could be some marginal LLWS near end of the period, but surface winds should help offset any major impacts.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.