textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Generally non-severe storms from a previous complex overnight steadily exit the area to the east into early this morning. One or two could still briefly become severe but this probability appears to be low. Can't rule out a couple more areas see elevated rises in stream and creeks through mid-morning.

- The forecast period as it stands now appears to be characterized by off and on storm chances through the week. A slightly more amplified system is forecast to arrive Thursday night into Friday which may provide the best chance for more active weather.

- Temperatures steadily rise through the week to the upper 80s and low 90s by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Early this morning, a weakening MCS appears to be making the transition to an MCV with a slight comma shape taking place on IR and WV satellite imagery at this hour. Lightning continues to trend down overall across the CWA with the better instability and LLJ convergence still supporting more intense storms over south central Kansas.

The prior low amplitude shortwave that encouraged convective development yesterday afternoon into the evening continues to transition into a convectively induced MCV into early morning and then exits east of the area between sunrise and mid-morning. Before this system fully exits the area, early morning flooding appears to be the primary concern due to 925-850mb moist flow still supporting good theta-e advection into the region over east-central and portions of northeastern KS. Potential for wake low winds looks to be setting up generally along the Hwy 36 corridor which can be common behind these departing systems.

Quasi-zonal flow remains overhead for through much of the week, so quick moving upper level shortwaves could spark periods of off and on showers and storms. But, for today, this afternoon still carries a severe risk mainly south of I-70 into the afternoon as a weak cold front begins to move through with the broader synoptic system as another mid-level shortwave works out of the central Rockies across the area. The best axis of instability appears to be from central into east-central KS areas into the afternoon. A weak cap may be in place but should erode by mid to late afternoon and allow for at least a few severe storms to form. The primary question is how high the freezing level remains and how poor the mid-level lapse rates might be. Some recovery of the overall profile would be necessary to help setup meaningful instability. If clouds are slow to clear then low level lapse rates may be poor or overall limited. So, this afternoon appears to be conditional with regards to a severe weather risk. Outflow boundaries interacting with the synoptic front appear to be favored areas. Overall shear is progged to be marginal this point by most short-term guidance, so again, the actual placement of the shortwave will be key if there is to be a bump up in the realized shear values. With a high freezing level, it would appear that to get severe hail and even wind that more highly organized updrafts are needed. It would stand to reason that in this high PW environment, that a wet downburst may not be out of the question if the shear remains overall marginal or low.

For the upcoming week, the pattern remains mainly quasi-zonal with several opportunities for off and on again showers and storms. Low predictability at this point for determining one period over another results, but if they pattern remains on track then as a western ridge develops into the end of the week, a slightly higher amplitude shortwave may emerge from the central Rockies. This may be the next best window of opportunity for impactful weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Left over showers with a random strike of lightning continue to exit the terminals to the east. Look for VCSH to start the period. Winds veer to the NNW as a weak frontal boundary pushes southeast across the area into midday and early afternoon. Wouldn't completely rule out a few isolated showers or a storm into the afternoon with residual moisture behind the boundary but expect the severe threat remains primarily south of the terminals. Could still be dealing with low cigs into the evening but confidence is too low to include so have opted to hint with a low SCT deck.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040. Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058- KSZ059.