textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- No precipitation and modest winds throughout this forecast.

- Near normal temperatures through Monday then slightly warmer into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Broad upper ridging remains over the southwest states with moderate jet energy over the northern states. A shortwave moving across the northern Plains today and through the Great Lakes Sunday drags a modest cold front across Kansas tonight. Southerly flow ahead of it brings dewpoints back into the 50s with light winds and clear skies this evening. With a weak wind field associated with the front itself, there is some potential for shallow ground fog formation late this evening into Sunday morning. Most short-term guidance fails to generate much fog, though progs 24 hours ago for this morning were similar and there was some shallow ground fog in favored locations. At this point will leave the mention out but it will need to be monitored. Modest north winds behind the front Sunday weaken again under clear skies which presents another potential fog concern. Highs Sunday and Monday should still be in the 70s in only minor airmass changes.

Another modest wave to the north pushes another weak front into the area Wednesday but warm-air advection ahead of it should supply a slightly warmer Tuesday and into the later week periods with above normal temperatures supported by LREF 850 mb temperature means. By this time, the upper flow backs a bit in response to upper energy moves into the west coast. Notable impacts locally from this are not anticipated for this forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with wind less than 10 knots and clear sky. Some very light and low-lying fog may develop in the river valley around KTOP, but impacts should be minimal to non to the terminal.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.