textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms possible this afternoon into early evening as storms develop along a cold front over north central areas and move east. Very large hail, damaging winds along with potential for tornadoes is possible. Flooding also can't be ruled out over areas that see repeated storms.

- A brief window for very high fire danger may set up behind the cold front as winds change to the northwest over north central counties and the relative humidity falls to around or just below 20 percent but overall the winds are expected to remain under 20 mph.

- Additional rounds of severe storms may be possible late day on Saturday and then again late day into the overnight hours on Sunday. Sunday may be the more impactful storm system but details still remain uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The main period of concern for today is focused on this afternoon and evening. Currently, the upper low is over the northern Plains region with a negatively tilted trough and the best forcing extending into northeastern Nebraska where storms have been ongoing for a couple of hours. The surface cold front is just west of the area through north central Kansas into central and southwestern Kansas areas. The dryline is further south into north central Oklahoma.

Storms are expected to initiate across the local area this afternoon but may initially struggle with strong capping sampled from the 18Z KTOP sounding. Much of the area today has been under a quite expansive area of stratus but clearing has taken place over western areas. Perhaps this has allowed for the cap to weaken sufficiently over western areas. The lift from the cold front should allow for storms in an area of steeper low level lapse rates to initiate due to the slightly better and more long lasting insolation that has taken place. Mid-level lapse rates are very steep so any storms that breach the cap should rapidly intensify. If the clearing can continue over the next couple of hours then the low level moisture in place will allow for rapid destabilization as well. With environmental southerly flow in place the low level hodograph structures should allow for support of tornadoes if the winds can become locally backed with initial supercellular storms but also 0-3km shear vectors appear to be forecast to become more orthogonal to the any developing line of storms later as storms grow upscale along the front. Long story short, expect initial semi-discrete supercells mainly possible of very large hail and a tornado or two. Then storms congeal into a line over the next 3-4 hrs as they advance east focusing more on the damaging wind threat and possible flooding but also QLCS type tornado potential. The hail threat appears to diminish with eastward motion. Two concerns with eastward motion is the cap strength combined with prior resident time of the stratus. What impact does that have on the evolution of storms remains to be seen but it wouldn't be surprising to see storms initiate and rapidly intensify then struggle with eastward progression.

This weekend, the potential for two more quick moving weather systems move through the area with severe weather impacts Saturday afternoon/evening and then again on Sunday evening/night. The time of day the forcing shifts over the area on Sunday will be critical to the development of any storms as well as the severity.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Cigs continue to lift overall and some areas continue to see clearing but these have tended to quickly fill back in with the inversion holding strong aloft and continued moist advection into the area. The trends point to BKN to SCT cigs that remain above VFR levels into and through this afternoon. The cold front is west of KMHK and will continue to push into and through the area this afternoon into this evening. Expect thunderstorms to form along the front by mid to late this afternoon but should progressively move through so have TEMPO groups indicating the best time frame with storm potential to impact terminals. Winds change to the WNW post frontal passage.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.