textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance (10-15%) for isolated showers/storms to redevelop this afternoon with better chances (30-60%) coming overnight along/southeast of I-35.

- Widely scattered showers/storms will be possible through Saturday night, followed by drying conditions into next week.

- Near average temperatures hold through the weekend, then gradually warm through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A well formed linear MCS has developed across western KS and the 00Z CAMs, including the last couple HRRR runs, are more bullish in storms making it into the forecast area early Friday morning. This lends increasing confidence to the forecast and have increased POPs across the western counties with coverage wording. The last run of the HRRR shows some potential for strong wind gusts with the line as it moves in. The RAP and NAM also show a mid level jet streak moving in with the MCS that increase bulk shear while mid level lapse rates ahead of the line remain steep enough to keep some robust updrafts going. Additionally the surface based CIN doesn't look as strong as it was forecast last night. So there could be some damaging winds once again as the line of storms enters the western counties.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis showed zonal flow across much of the central and northern Plains. Minor MVC's were located across northwest MO and southeast KS/SW MO.

The 17Z surface map showed a weak cold front extending from central IA, southwest across the northern and western counties of CWA, then southwest into far northwest OK.

Today through Saturday night:

The weak front will continue to push southeast through the afternoon hours. The RAP is the only CAM showing convection along the front during the late afternoon and early evening hours across the southeast counties of the CWA. The higher instability will be located across southeast KS late this afternoon and the effective shear will be under 20 KTS, so I do not expect any of these storms that may develop across the southeast counties to be severe.

Late this afternoon and evening, the CAMs show thunderstorms developing across western KS as easterly low-level winds advect richer moisture west. Most CAMS show a complex of storms developing across southwest and west central KS. These storms wil move east and begin to weaken as they move into the CWA. I cannot rule out some isolated damaging wind gusts through the early morning hours of Friday across southwest counties of the CWA. The NSSL ARW and the 17Z HRRR show these storms remaining more intense as they push east across the southern counties of the CWA between 10Z and 13Z, generally south of a Council Grove to Ottawa line. Most the CWA will remain dry through the night into Friday morning.

The surface front will remain stationary across southern KS through Friday and into Saturday. Weak mid-level perturbation in the near zonal mid level flow may provide enough ascent for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday night. The higher instability will be located south of the CWA. However, if the boundary shifts farther north, into the CWA, then there maybe a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, The effective shear will be weakening as H5 ridge across the southwestern US builds north and then northeast across the central and northern high Plains.

Sunday through Thursday:

The center of the upper ridge will shift east and remain stationary across northeast NE/southeast SD. The mid level flow across KS will become easterly. A number of TUTT lows, perturbations, will ride west along the southern periphary of the H5 ridge across south TX. The ascent will cause widespread thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast. The easterly low-level flow across the Plains, combined with deep moist convection along the gulf coast will limit the transport of richer Gulf moisture farther north. So, even though high temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s next work week, the surface dewpoints will remain in the 65 to 70 degree range, which will keep heat indicies in the 90 to 100 degree range.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The linear MCS out west has increased confidence in TS moving into the terminals through the early morning hours. So will go ahead and include a TEMPO for storms at all three terminals. Based on the latest CAMs, the window for storms looks to only be a few hours.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.