textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light showers or sprinkles possible tonight into Friday, better rain chances (50-80%) Saturday night

- Near to above normal temperatures through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest flow aloft continues across the area as we remain on the southwest periphery of a large upper low centered over the Hudson Bay. A smaller upper low is noted over northwestern Mexico with ridging off the Pacific coast. Closer to home, breezy southwest winds amid sunshine have allowed temperatures to warm closer to seasonal values today in the 70s. Tonight into Friday, a weak perturbation aloft ejects out of the Rockies and moves through the area, bringing a weak sfc boundary along with it. CAMs have spotty reflectivity mainly near the KS/NE border tonight and again in east central KS Friday late morning and afternoon; however, forecast soundings show abundant dry air below 700mb. Would not expect much of this to reach the ground, if any, but will continue with small PoPs to account for a stray shower or sprinkle. East central KS may see slightly better moisture quality just ahead of the weak front Friday, but Td depressions are still fairly high. Other than low precip chances, little change in air mass is expected with this front as temperatures still reach the 70s, similar to today.

Most of the daytime hours Saturday should remain dry and warm with highs in the 80s before the next wave aloft moves in, followed by the cold front Saturday night. Somewhat better moisture return should take place, although based on soundings, it looks like the sufficient moisture holds off until the evening hours at which point instability starts to wane. This keeps severe weather potential low with rainfall amounts looking light, but at least a few thunderstorms would be plausible.

High pressure builds in Sunday, leaving clearing skies with highs back to the 70s behind the front. The upper ridge to our west builds early next week, resulting in a warming trend and bringing highs into the 80s through at least the middle of the week. It's worth noting a system to our north brings a slight rain chance Monday night into early Tuesday, but there has been some variation on the track of the associated sfc low, so confidence remains low in how much that system will ultimately impact us.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected. Gusts around 25 kts from the southwest will continue through this afternoon with winds diminishing around sunset. Still monitoring a low potential for LLWS overnight with a LLJ around 40 kts developing overhead for a few hours. Confidence wasn't high enough to add mention yet, but may need to consider if it looks like sfc winds will become backed further to the southeast. Some guidance hints at this, but not for a long enough time period to have great confidence in it. A weak frontal boundary then turns winds to the northwest late in the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.