textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat continues for at least the next week. Highs in the mid to upper 90s each day with heat indices 100 to 105.

- Staying mostly dry through the week. A few low chances for showers, mainly towards the Nebraska border.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Heat has returned across the area today, as upper ridging over the Four Corners area spreads eastward. This upper ridge will continue to shift east over the next day before becoming locked in place over the central CONUS the rest of the week. Meanwhile west of the ridge, a deep upper low over the western CONUS will allow for lee troughing to develop across the High Plains. This will keep the 850 mb thermal ridge axis in place across the area for about the next week. Mixing will be a bit deeper than some of our prior episodes of heat this summer, so while temperatures will reach the mid/upper 90s (possibly 100 in spots) each afternoon, dewpoints will stay in the 60s. Nevertheless, we may need a Heat Advisory at some point, as current heat index forecasts are in the 100 to 105 range each day through Thursday. Considered issuing one this afternoon, but will wait one more forecast cycle to see how deep moisture mixes out this afternoon across central Kansas. If dewpoints stay on the higher end of guidance through this afternoon, I'll be more confident that we reach that 105 heat index threshold for an advisory tomorrow.

With persistent lee troughing, a decent pressure gradient across the Plains will also keep breezy southerly winds in place each day. This will be a double edged sword, as the stronger afternoon winds will make the heat slightly more tolerable, but the continued overnight mixing will prevent temperatures from cooling off as much. Low temperatures look to stay mostly in the upper 70s, near record warm values.

As upper ridging stays in control across the area, most of the next week will stay dry. Any more notable shortwaves will stay well to our north. However with a strong low-level jet centered a bit too our west, it's not completely out of the question we could see a few scattered showers or storms sneak into far north-central KS. This would be most likely during the overnight or morning hours, if any convection can develop from any stronger isentropic ascent within the LLJ. No one day with any more notable signal, but the pattern suggests it can't be ruled out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Upper ridging is forecast to keep VFR conditions in place while keeping storm tracks to the north of the terminals.

CLIMATE

Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast August 30 Topeka 79, set in 1932 77 Concordia 78, set in 1951 79

August 31 Topeka 77, set in 1912 and 1947 79 Concordia 81, set in 1947 78

September 1 Topeka 81, set in 2011 79 Concordia 80, set in 1913 79

September 2 Topeka 80, set in 2011 79 Concordia 79, set in 1929 77

September 3 Topeka 77, set in 1939 78 Concordia 80, set in 1947 77

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.