textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Additional showers and storms develop today as low pressure moves over the area.

-Cooler and drier weather move into the area for midweek.

-POPs increase again briefly on Thursday, mainly south of I-35.

-Seasonable conditions are expected this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A stacked closed low pressure system was located over south-central KS and north-central OK at 09Z today. The initial round of rain east of the cold front and trough axis was exiting the area to the northeast, while showers and isolated storms were filling in across north- central KS in the wrap-around region of the system. Additional scattered showers and storms are expected to develop due to large scale ascent as the low moves over northeast KS this morning. Around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE could allow for some lightning but severe weather is not expected today. Winds increase out of the northwest as the low pulls away due to a tight pressure gradient on the back side of the system. Gusts of 30 to 35 kts could occur, especially in north- central KS.

A CAA pattern will bring in cooler and drier conditions tomorrow. Cloud cover should also clear from southwest to northeast throughout the day as temperatures in the mid 40s early warm to near 60 degrees during the afternoon. A mid-level trough axis around the departing low phases with another approaching H5 low over KS on Thursday. An associated sfc low will move along the Red River Valley with an area of rain developing in OK and southern KS. The best chance for rain will remain south of I-35 with most other locations likely to stay dry on Thursday. Temps stay very close to average as a sfc ridge builds in from the north late this week with lows near 40 degrees and highs near 60 degrees.

Seasonable and dry weather continue through the upcoming weekend. A brief warming trend then occurs early next week with a return of southerly flow ahead of our next front.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 459 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Low pressure moves over the area today, bringing scattered showers and possibly isolated storms through the day. Precip chances decrease toward the late afternoon hours as the system pulls away from the area. Northwest winds increase this morning with gusts of 25 to 35 kts becoming common today. IFR/MVFR ceilings hold for much of the period with improvements expected early Wednesday. Winds also decrease tonight and turn more westerly.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.