textproduct: Topeka

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A mid-level shortwave is moving east across the Central Plains this afternoon with a MCV spinning across central Kansas. An uncapped and unstable airmass has lead to the development of widely scattered thunderstorms and coverage has been increasing as the MCV approaches. While deep shear is rather weak, low-level shear increases as the MCV moves towards the area, supporting multicellular structures or even some supercellular structures. Hail up to quarter size and 60 MPH wind gusts are the main severe hazard. Steep low-level lapse rates could stretch existing surface vorticity which, along with the elongation of the low-level hodograph, leads to the potential for a tornado or two to spin up. The flooding threat remains as well with HREF members showing the potential for 1- 2" per hour rainfall rates, with best chances for repeated rounds of rain north of Interstate 70. Rainfall totals of 1-2 are likely with localized areas up to 4 inches possible. The Flood Watch remains in effect through 4 AM.

Rain is progged to exit the area early Friday morning with dry time through the majority of the day. Similar to the past few days, the environment becomes uncapped by Friday afternoon and isolated storms could develop. However, a lack of large-scale ascent should limit coverage and CAMs are generally void of convection until late afternoon and into the evening when a surface front/trough sags into southern Nebraska. While guidance varies in location of this boundary, they have shifted farther north with convection developing in Nebraska along the nose of the low-level jet. This leads to less certainty in these storms impacting the forecast area as steering flow should push storms east-southeast. If storms do impact the area, they could produce wind gusts of 60 MPH and hail up to quarter size. High PWATs could lead to locally heavy rainfall as well.

Another break in precipitation appears likely Saturday before the closed upper low lifts northeast Saturday night into Sunday. Showers and storms build back into the area and the environment again favors high rainfall rates with PWATs above the 90th percentile of climatology. The good news is the best signal for heavy rainfall is across southeast and east central Kansas which have missed out on the bulk of rain over the past few days. The NBM mean shows 1-1.5" of rain across east central Kansas, with the 75th percentile of 2- 2.5".

Conditions dry out for the beginning of next week as ridging builds overhead. While strength of this ridge varies among guidance, this ridge brings summer-like heat and humidity. Heat indices of 100+ degrees are appearing more likely beginning Tuesday and continuing into the middle of next. There could be a couple of waves that ride the ridge and produce showers/storms, but predictability is low this far out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

CAMs show SHRA pushing east of TOP and FOE within the hour, so will just keep a VCSH for a few hours. Otherwise will maintain a VFR forecast. There are some signs for a stratus deck to develop before daybreak. But good mixing of the boundary layer with dry air above 900MB may limit the potential for MVFR CIGS. Have left precip out of the forecast through Friday evening, but a moist and conditionally unstable airmass looks to remain in place and think there is some potential for TSRA to redevelop. Where and when limit confidence in including that in the forecast at this time.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT early this morning for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034.