textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated non-severe storms in western portions of the area may last into the early evening hours.

- Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected Thursday through the weekend. The entire area has at least a 50% chance of seeing at least 1" by Monday morning, with potential for some areas to see 2- 3".

- Thursday and Friday could bring a few strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds as the main hazards.

- Temperatures hold fairly steady through the forecast period with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Upper ridging continues to dominate the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, which is blocking the multiple shortwave troughs noted across western North America. One upper low is situated over southern Saskatchewan, one is off the coast of British Columbia, and yet another is spinning off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. Closer to home, a weak mid-level low has been circulating in the TX/OK panhandle vicinity. All of this is leading to weak flow aloft in our area. We have similar thermodynamics in place today compared to yesterday with an uncapped environment and a moist and unstable air mass. As such, there appears to be just enough sfc convergence through Ottawa, Dickinson, and Morris Counties for a few thunderstorms to develop. With little to no shear, severe weather is not expected as storms should pulse up and down. They probably won't be in a hurry to move very far very quickly either, so can't rule out some locally heavy rainfall with these storms. This activity should wane into the evening with the loss of instability.

As the weak mid-level low nearby makes its way into western KS tonight, a batch of showers and storms should move across the western part of the state through the overnight hours. It's uncertain how much of this will make it through our area Thursday morning, but have maintained low-end PoPs to account for that possibility during that time frame. Storm chances increase Thursday afternoon and evening as mid-level lift increases with the passing wave, especially for areas north of I-70. Shear looks somewhat better, but respectable (around 25-30 kts) with 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Given the increase in shear, there could be a few stronger updrafts to support marginally severe storms with this round, mainly for hail and wind. With skinny CAPE profiles and Pwat values approaching or exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology, torrential rainfall and flooding may be the bigger concern. The 12z HREF highlights areas north of I-70 as most likely to receive the heaviest rain. Some of these locations have a 50-70% chance of at least 1" from this round alone, with the mean rainfall total being 1- 2". Isolated spots could receive as much as 3-5" based on the 90th percentile. An early look at CAM guidance suggests these storms should move out by sunrise Friday.

The bulk of the daytime hours Friday look dry before a weak frontal boundary looks to set off another round of storms Friday night into early Saturday. Friday has similar instability and shear compared to Thursday, so similar hazards are in place with any stronger updrafts, but again locally heavy rainfall could be the bigger issue, especially if these areas are already well saturated from the previous day. Another break in the activity should take place Saturday morning and afternoon before the next round. The upper wave currently off the Mexican coast should be coming out of Texas by this point and lifting northeast through Sunday, leading to some uncertainty on the timing of any breaks Saturday night through Sunday, but generally speaking PoPs increase into Sunday with the wave overhead. Lift should decrease heading into Monday as the trough axis passes east. The latest LREF continues to show the entire area likely to receive at least 1" of rainfall by Monday morning, with the 90th percentile indicating potential for 2-3" area- wide. If shorter-range guidance is any indication, even locally higher amounts would be possible if the same areas receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

Forecast temperatures hold fairly steady for the next several days with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s -- just a gradual increase each day into next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Some MVFR cumulus has moved overhead with recent obs and short-term guidance suggesting this may bounce between MVFR and VFR, so have gone with a tempo group early in the period to account for that. Still can't entirely rule out a few brief showers or storms from MHK westward, but coverage looks too isolated to be worth any kind of mention. Storm chances increase into Thursday, although chances are better beyond the current TAF period so will hold off for now. Otherwise, southeasterly winds veer slightly to the south Thursday morning.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.