textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Turning much colder and windy today behind a strong cold front. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 4 PM this afternoon due to northwest winds sustained at 20-30 MPH and gusts of 45-50 MPH.

- Light wintry mix possible (15-40%) behind the front today, but not expecting any accumulations or impacts.

- Colder Monday before warming back up Tuesday through the remainder of the week with dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

A strong surface cold front is beginning to move southeast into the forecast area as a longwave trough ejects across the Plains this morning. Ahead of this boundary, showers and embedded thunderstorms have impacted the area overnight, but have been decreasing in intensity and coverage. As the cold front marches from northwest to southeast across the area this morning, winds will strengthen from the northwest with sustained winds of 20-30 MPH and gusts of 45-50 MPH expected through the morning and into the afternoon before weakening, but remaining gusty, later this afternoon. A slightly faster progression will bring in strong winds earlier across north central Kansas, so have started the Wind Advisory for this area at 3 AM with the rest of the area joining in at 6 AM. Temperatures will fall through the day given strong CAA; temperatures will be in the 20s to low 30s this afternoon. Low-level frontogenesis in a saturated layer between 925-800mb may be enough to generate some light precipitation behind the boundary in the colder air. Models have trended slightly warmer with this layer, leading to uncertainty in exact precipitation types. Any rain initially should transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain/drizzle and sleet and perhaps even snow as the column cools before precipitation ends by mid-afternoon. The depth of the saturated layer lessens with southern extent, so areas near the KS/NE stateline have the best chances at seeing some light precipitation while areas near and south of I-35 may not see much wintry precipitation at all. Nonetheless, accumulations of snow and/or ice are not expected given the narrow window of any wintry precipitation, lack of deeper moisture, and initially warm ground temperatures. Very dry air also builds in behind the front, allowing for relative humidity values to fall to 30-40 percent across north central Kansas and creating very high fire danger for a few hours this afternoon. See the Fire Weather discussion below for more.

Gusty northwest winds will make for a chilly Monday. Morning lows will be in the teens with winds chills of 0 to -5 degrees. Even with mostly sunny skies, highs will struggle to reach the 30 degree mark and wind chills will remain largely in the teens through the day. Winds relax Monday evening as surface high pressure builds into the region. Northwest flow aloft takes control through the rest of the week with the return of southerly low-level winds by Tuesday aiding in bumping temperatures back into the 40s. A weaker cold front will move into the area by Thursday, although guidance varies in how cold temperatures will be behind the boundary; the NBM has a 10-15 degree spread in 25-75th percentile temperatures on Thursday. Temperatures are expected to warm back up for the end of the week with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Area of snow including a band of moderate to heavy snow will impact the TAF sites this afternoon. Expect LIFR conditions at least for 1-2 hours this afternoon as the heaviest of the snow and blowing snow occurs. All snow should end from west to east by 00z with VFR conds expected thereafter.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 327 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Northwest winds will increase sharply behind a strong cold front this morning. Sustained winds of 20-30 MPH and gusts of 45-50 MPH are expected through much of the day, weakening slightly this afternoon, but still gusting at 25-40 MPH through the overnight hours. Very dry air works into the area behind the front as well and relative humidity values will fall to 30-40 percent across north-central Kansas, even with falling temperatures. This combination of lower relative humidity and gusty winds will create a 3-4 hour window for very high fire danger across north-central Kansas this afternoon. It is worth noting that some guidance has even drier air working into the area than the current forecast, which would lead to relative humidity values as low as 20-25 percent and expand the very high fire danger farther east. Recovery of relative humidity will be slow overnight, only reaching 50-60 percent by sunrise Monday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.