textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly above average temperatures continue into Thursday with dry weather.

- Coldest air of the winter arrives Friday and into the weekend with increasing likelihood of wind chills around or below -15 degrees Saturday.

- Snow chances increase Friday into Saturday, but overall confidence in snow totals still remains low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Northwesterly flow still encapsulates much of the central and northern Plains as long-wave troughing extends over much of the eastern US. Mostly clear skies and decreasing winds overnight has led to temperatures falling into the low 20s and teens across the area with temperatures expected to decrease a few degrees further by sunrise. By this afternoon, low level southwesterly flow and mostly clear skies will usher in a nice warm-up across the area as temperatures rebound back into the upper 40s and localized low 50s. Similar conditions will continue into Wednesday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s. By Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a pacific cold front pushes in from the north and cools temperatures Thursday afternoon into the upper 30s and low 40s. While this may not seem overly cold, this will precede much colder temperatures that are expected to move in by Friday through Sunday.

By Friday, two separate upper level systems - one over southern CA and the other coming out of the PNW - will begin to move east towards the central US bringing very cold air and snow chances. Confidence in some of the coldest air of the season is fairly high with the biggest uncertainty coming with snow chances Friday through Sunday. Temperatures Friday and Saturday afternoon will not likely warm much above the teens as lows Friday through Sunday dip towards 0 degrees. Wind chills over the weekend will become dangerous, especially Saturday morning as values approach -15 degrees.

The two main solutions among ensemble guidance for the weekend system consist of each trying to phase the southern cyclone with the northern trough. Where the differences lie is one keeps the northern system a bit further west allowing the southern system to strengthen a bit and shift further north. This yields a more neutrally-tilted trough as it moves into the central US and snow totals shifting further north into Kansas. The other main solution keeps a faster and more eastward scenario with the northern low. This will lead to the southern cyclone weaker and not able to track as far north yielding in most snowfall staying in Oklahoma and Texas. Over the last 24 hours, it has seemed like ensemble guidance has shifted a bit towards the first solution, keeping a more neutrally-tilted trough by Friday and Saturday. This has in turn increased PoPs Friday night into Saturday (40-60%) with snow chances spreading further north. All this said, there still remains a fair amount of uncertainty with who will see snow and how much. As of now, snow totals remain between 0-2 inches with higher totals still staying south of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

TAFs remain VFR at all sites through the period with lines added this afternoon for gusty southwest winds. Gusts should decrease around sunset as the BL decouples. A weak frontal boundary is expected to move through the terminals early Wednesday morning that will shift the winds back out of the northwest through the end of the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.