textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather with chances for showers and storms remain in the forecast through Thursday night.

- Hot and dry weather is expected to return this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A broad upper trough was noted over the northern half of the CONUS on the 19Z water vapor imagery with a subtle wave moving over the middle MO river valley. A second shortwave was digging southeast over the northern Rockies. Surface obs had an area of low pressure across northwest OK with an inverted trough axis extending through northeast KS and into southeast IA. This boundary had been nearly stationary for much of the day.

For the next few days the forecast will be dependent on shortwave energy passing over the surface boundary. And the latest model trends have these waves being more subtle than earlier runs. As a result the models and CAMs have tended to back off on coverage of shower activity through Thursday. Along and ahead of the boundary, models still show a modestly unstable airmass with bulk shear around 30KT. So the chances for showers and storms will persist but with the lower coverage, POPs have come down somewhat. The one opportunity for severe storms may be Thursday afternoon across parts of east central KS where the models show some heating along the front as it washes out. But confidence in destabilization with expected cloud cover is somewhat marginal. There is still a shortwave progged to move through the northwest flow Thursday night and now the NBM shows the higher POPs for Thursday night.

Height rises over the central Rockies and into the central Plains late Friday and this weekend are expected to push the mean westerlies back north with dry and hot conditions developing. The NBM still has highs for Sunday and Monday in the middle 90s while the 00Z ensemble data suggests some potential for highs in the triple digits. Even the 12Z operational runs show 925MB temps warming to around +35C across the western counties. So there continues to be some room for highs Sunday and Monday to trend warmer. Models show the upper ridge weakening by the middle of next week. This may allow another boundary to move into the central plains by Wednesday with slightly cooler temps and chances for showers and storms. Until then, chances for precip this weekend and early next week look to be driven by mesoscale processes and generally around 15 percent or less.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

CAMs show any shower activity near the terminals remaining pretty isolated as the main shortwave remains over NEB. So confidence in putting precip at the terminals is to low to include at this time. There is a signal for some MVFR CIGS to move in as the boundary slides south. Confidence in this is a little better for MHK with TOP and FOE progged to remain on the gradient of saturation. So went ahead and added a FM group at MHK for the low clouds and show a SCT deck at TOP and FOE.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.