textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms impact the area through the day today. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible along and south of Interstate 35 during the afternoon.

- Relief from the excessive heat comes behind today's front with temperatures closer to normal into next week.

- Off and on precipitation chances continue this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

The surface front is draped across the area early this morning, from Hiawatha to Abilene. With upper forcing displaced to the north, storms have been forming along the 925-850mb front, which lies across southern Nebraska. Showers and storms will slowly build south through the morning as the front advances through the area. Coverage of precipitation should continue to be scattered/widely scattered before increasing in coverage somewhat across east-central Kansas as the boundary interacts with a more unstable pre-frontal environment. Shear is still progged to be marginal (20kts), but SBCAPE of ~2000 J/kg and high DCAPE values support the potential for damaging wind gusts, especially if any convection can evolve into clusters. Highest potential is along and southeast of Interstate 35 during the afternoon into the evening, generally 3-7 PM. The pre-frontal environment will still be hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s along and south of the I-35 corridor. Dewpoints in the 70s will create heat index values of 100-105 degrees this afternoon, but values of this magnitude should be limited to a couple of hours before the front moves through and precipitation chances increase. As such, will not issue any heat headlines.

Coverage of precipitation increases again overnight tonight as the boundary hangs across southeast Kansas and isentropic ascent strengthens. Storm motions will be largely parallel to the boundary with high PWATs around 2" leading to the potential for locally heavy rainfall. HREF members depict pockets of 1-3" of rainfall across east-central Kansas into Thursday morning. Think the dry antecedent conditions will help limit flooding potential, but could have some localized flooding if storms do train over the same areas.

Precipitation comes to an end Thursday morning and skies clear from north to south. A much more comfortable day is expected with highs in the 80s. There is a low chance for some WAA showers/storms Thursday night into Friday morning. Southerly flow returns on Friday and bumps temperatures back into mid 80s to low 90s. Models are mixed on the potential for an MCS to dive southeast into area Friday night into Saturday. The global models are much more aggressive than the shorter-range models (RRFS and NAM) in generating a convective complex. With the NBM dominated by global models at this range, PoPs are quite highs, but there are signs that storms could be much less widespread. Additional rounds of precipitation move across the area through the remainder of the weekend, although periods of dry time appear probable as well.

The stronger cold front that has been hinted at by guidance to move through Monday-Tuesday of next week has trended weaker and less progressive, favoring warmer temperatures and higher precipitation chances as the front hangs across the region. Predictability is low as temperature spreads remain large, 10-15 degree spread in NBM 25th- 75th percentiles.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Scattered showers and storms have developed and will continue through the early afternoon. Intermittent impacts to terminals are possible, mainly in the form of VCTS or -TSRA. Precipitation moves southeast of terminals this evening before another round of showers and storms forms overnight. Guidance suggests higher chances are south of terminals, but have input a PROB30 group to account for the potential of storms near TAF sites. There could be some MVFR cigs near the end of the period as well.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 9 Topeka 76, set in 2014 73 Concordia 79, set in 1931 71

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.