textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until Tuesday evening due to the prolonged heat wave impacting the region.

- There is some hope for heat relief and precipitation later next week, although predictability is low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The upper ridge over the southeast CONUS is beginning its expansion westward over the Plains early this morning, keeping hot conditions in place across the region. Elevated low-level winds have kept the boundary layer mixed overnight with temperatures in the 70s and low 80s at 2 AM, where they will likely stay through the rest of the overnight hours. Once mixing commences this morning, anomalously warm low-level temperatures will boost surface temperatures into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees yet again this afternoon. Daytime mixing will allow for dewpoints to lower slightly through the day, but still create afternoon heat index values of 100-106 degrees across the area. This will be the 7th consecutive day of heat indices reaching 100+ degrees. Unfortunately for those hoping for more fall-like weather, this pattern holds through at least Tuesday. As such, expect highs in the upper 90s to near 100 with daily afternoon heat index values of 95-107 degrees. There could be some thicker cloud cover and a low (<15%) chance for precipitation Sunday through Tuesday as weak energy wraps around the mid-level ridge, but right now any impacts to temperatures appear low. See no reason to change the Extreme Heat Warning at this point with the prolonged nature of this heat wave being the most dangerous aspect.

Predictability decreases by the middle of next week as some guidance suggests a strong wave moving across the Great Lakes will push a cold front through the area and shunt the mid-level ridge west while other guidance keeps the ridge centered over the Southern and Central Plains. The latter solution is favored slightly, but even this scenario brings at least some heat relief to the area by late next week. There is about a 10 degree spread between the NBM 25th- 75th percentiles for high temperatures by Thursday, ranging from the upper 80s to upper 90s. Precipitation chances may increase during this time as well, depending upon if the front makes it through the area and the strength of any passing waves.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR at sites with gusty south winds around 20 kts in the afternoon, calming below 10 kts after 00Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 4 Topeka 78, set in 1947 & 2014 74 Concordia 79, set in 1954 78

September 5 Topeka 76, set in 1925 & 1983 74 Concordia 78, set in 1899 75

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.