textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-A band of scattered showers and storms is possible for a few hours this morning.

-A few severe storms could then develop Tuesday afternoon and evening.

-Temperatures remain fairly consistent throughout the week with warmer weather returning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged this morning, with the mid-level ridge remaining centered over New Mexico. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave over southwestern KS which is generating cloud cover and light rain. There is also a band of showers and storms in south-central KS and north-central OK that has developed just ahead of a surface low in and area of isentropic ascent. Most CAMs show that band of precipitation expanding northward into the area toward sunrise as isentropic ascent increases northeast. There will be around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, but fairly weak shear as the LLJ looks to stay south of the area. So while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather is not expected this morning. Rain and storms should quickly dissipate as the ascent decreases mid-morning. Temperatures then warm well into the 80s for much of the area this afternoon with heat index values a few degrees higher.

The next chance for thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon and evening with models showing another shortwave moving over the area within the northwest flow aloft. The environment should be more favorable for a few severe storms with around 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and limited CIN. Shear again isn't overly impressive so damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, especially with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg.

A weak surface boundary then moves through northeast KS on Wednesday and high pressure expands southward behind it. The mid-level ridge looks to move slightly westward, keeping the track of shortwaves west of the area. Thus, dry weather is expected through the end of the week. Temperatures remain fairly consistent each day with lows in the 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s through the workweek before temperatures warm further this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have developed very early this morning and could impact airports through about 14Z before dissipating. Once TS is out of the area, VFR will prevail with clouds clearing and winds around 10 kts out of the southeast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.