textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and quiet for the next few days.

- Much hotter for Wednesday ahead of a cold front that will bring severe weather chances Wednesday evening across eastern KS.

- Seasonable temperatures late week and weekend with rain chances returning by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The current pattern across the CONUS is dominated by a deep upper trough centered over the Great Lakes, with ridging out over the West Coast. Under northwest flow aloft, a broad area of high pressure is in place over much of the northern and central Plains. As this high pressure remains in charge over the next couple days, we'll remain cool and dry, with much lower humidity compared to recent days. Tonight should see lows in the 50s across nearly the entire area.

By Tuesday, the high will have passed east of the area, allowing for southerly return flow to develop. Within continued northwest flow aloft, one weak shortwave will move southeast across the Upper Midwest, pushing a weak front through the area mid-afternoon. Can't rule out a brief storm or two developing along this boundary, but given the early frontal timing and the shortwave staying well north, the chance of this remains quite low.

A much stronger shortwave will approach the Central Plains Wednesday PM. Quick translation of a 60+ kt 500 mb jet streak will result in a deep surface low moving into Iowa and southern Minnesota by evening. A trailing cold front will extend southward back towards central KS. Strong WAA and moisture advection ahead of this low/front will result in hot and humid conditions rapidly returning for the afternoon. Depending on the exact degree of mixing, temperatures should climb into the mid and upper 90s, with low 70s dewpoints increasing heat indices around or above 100 across eastern KS. Aside from the heat, the most notable concern looks to be severe weather chances returning ahead of the cold front. Given a southwesterly LLJ and warm 700 mb temperatures, capping should have some sort of limit on evening storm development. Height falls are also greatest north of the area, with weak height rises in place over eastern KS. So confidence is lower in seeing storms compared to farther northeast into Missouri. However with deep mixing and moderate pressure falls along the cold front, it seems plausible a few discrete or semi- discrete storms develop, most likely towards far east-central KS. This is supported by a slight majority of global model guidance, as well as the few convective allowing models that go out to 84 hours. If storms can develop, strong effective shear largely perpendicular to the boundary should favor a supercell mode, with large hail and damaging winds. The deeper mixing and warm mid-level temperatures may limit the tornado threat, but low-level shear appears to be strong enough that it will have to be watched. Regardless, several more days to allow the details to fall into place with the exact magnitude of the storm/severe threat.

Near average temperatures and drier air will move back in behind the cold front for Thursday. Over the next few days flow will turn more zonal as a weak trough over the western US flattens ridging over the Southern Plains. Several shortwaves from the larger trough will move across the Central Plains Saturday into Sunday. Predictability is low on the details with these, but precipitation chances should nonetheless increase as they approach.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

North winds around 10 kts with some minor gusts continue into the evening, then quickly weaken after sunset. Can't rule out some patchy shallow fog in the river valley around TOP towards sunrise, but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.