textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- High to Very High Fire Danger this afternoon with gusty winds and low humidity common across the area.

- A few storms possible across central Kansas late this afternoon and early evening. There is a chance these become strong to marginally severe with gusty winds and small hail.

- Another round for severe storms returns Thursday afternoon and evening. Large Hail and Damaging Winds are the main concerns.

- Cooler for Friday with storm chances through the day and into the weekend. (40-70% Chances daily through Sunday)

- A large upper low entering the Plains early next week will again return chances for strong to severe storms Monday and Tuesday across the area. See discussion below for details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A large upper low currently spins across the ND and Canada border with a weak perturbation moving across Nebraska. Near the surface, tight pressure gradients ahead of a surface trough stretching from MN to southeast CO has led to very gusty winds this afternoon with deep diurnal mixing. Dewpoints across northeast Kansas have mixed out into the 30-40 degree range as temperatures have quickly warmed into the low to mid 70s. Expect a few degrees more of warming this afternoon. The gusty winds and low RH values will continue to pose a risk for high to very high fire danger through the afternoon today. Outdoor burning is not recommended as fires could quickly lose containment. As the afternoon progresses, the surface trough/cold front pushes into central Kansas where some marginal CAPE and deep shear will exist that could yield in storm development. That said, forcing along the front does not seem overly strong so not expecting widespread coverage in storms this evening across central and north- central Kansas. If a storm can develop and maintain strength, a marginally severe hail and wind threat may be realized (hail to 1- 1.25" and wind gusts of 40-60 mph). Confidence is not high in a large area seeing storms or severe weather this evening.

By Thursday morning, the frontal boundary will stall across central and east-central Kansas with isentropic ascent within the LLJ ushering in scattered showers across the area (20-40%). Through the day, the boundary will lift north towards the KS/NE border as a warm front with mid 50 degree Tds moving into the area to the south. A few small mid-level perturbations moving off the Rockies will provide cooling aloft leading to increasing instability and shear by the afternoon hours. This will set the stage for storm development along the triple point (near north-central KS) and along the warm frontal boundary anytime after 1 PM Thursday. Given instability increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg, effective shear of 35-45 kts and steep low and mid level lapse rates, supercells capable of large hail (up to 2 inches possible) and damaging winds (60 MPH) will be possible. Cannot rule out a tornado threat, but chances remain low unless a well maintained supercell can ride along the warm front, further increasing its streamline vorticity advection. As storms congeal and slowly move south/southeast into the evening, storms will likely transition to more of a wind threat given the inverted-V profiles and cold downdrafts. This is further highlighted by DCAPE of around 1000-1200 J/kg. The severe threat should be done before midnight Thursday night.

Friday will see the frontal boundary sag south of the area into southern Kansas with isentropic flow over the boundary keeping showers and elevated thunderstorms likely for much of the day, especially across east-central and central KS. Strong storms may again from along and south of the boundary Friday afternoon, but most should stay south of the area where instability remains greatest. Cannot rule out an elevated storm developing just north of the boundary by Friday afternoon/evening, but confidence is not high in that happening. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Saturday and Sunday. While strong to severe storms will likely stay south of the area Saturday, Sunday could see severe storm chances return by the afternoon as a large upper low begins to eject off the Rockies. Confidence is low for severe storms as forcing mechanisms remain limited. Severe storm potential will continued to be monitored for Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned strong upper low ejects across the southern and central Plains. This seems like the best widespread severe storm chance given the set up, but confidence is still low with severe chances hovering around 15% at this time for Monday and Tuesday. When all rain is all said and done, long range ensemble guidance depicts a range of 1-2" of rainfall with locally higher amounts through Tuesday. Given the long duration of rainfall, not overly worried about a flooding concern, but will have to monitor the concern, especially if localized areas Thursday and Friday get ample rainfall.

Beyond Tuesday, the next dry day does not appear to come until later in the week as the mid-level cyclone hangs out over the central US keeping rain and storms chances around.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Wind-driven TAFs will continue through the afternoon today before gusts and sustained winds decrease around sunset this evening. The remainder of the TAF will see light and variable winds with winds increasing in the late period out of the south/southeast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.