textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Below-average temperatures continue through the work week with precipitation chances (40-70%) returning Wednesday night into Thursday across central KS.

- Rain/storm chances maximize Friday and again Saturday (50-80%) before drier and warmer air returns Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Northwesterly upper-level flow has moved into much of the central and northern Plains as a cutoff low makes its way towards the Great Lakes. This has allowed strong surface ridging to move into much of the central and northern US and ushered in below-average temperatures with it. Stratus continues to fill in across eastern Kansas and will persist for much of the morning today that should again help to keep temperatures in to upper 60s to mid 70s by this afternoon. The low-level ridge axes begin to slide east of Kansas by Wednesday, returning southerly surface flow. Subtle WAA and drier air with this change should act to clear skies a bit earlier Wednesday morning and afternoon with highs a touch warmer, topping out in the mid to upper 70s - a pleasant day all around!

The first wave of several end of the week precipitation chances builds in by Wednesday night into Thursday as moisture and vorticity rounds the southern Plains upper ridge. Best forcing and moisture profiles will reside across western and central Kansas so that is where the best chances will be to see widespread precipitation Wednesday PM into Thursday AM. By Thursday afternoon into Friday, mid-level troughing moving in from the west begins to shunt the southern Plains ridge south and east. This should push PVA further east into eastern Kansas. A decent stream of gulf moisture in the 850mb layer will remain open to the central Plains into the weekend. PWATs during this period will hover around 1.75", confirming the overall quality and depth of moisture moving into Kansas. With several waves passing over the plains Thursday through Saturday, PoPs will remain fairly high each day, maxing out in the 50-70% range each day. A more stout shortwave moves through Saturday PM that should push a cold front across the area. Guidance quickly moves this east of the area by Sunday, ushering in drier weather and a compact mid-level ridge that could return afternoon temps back into the mid to upper 80s. The compact ridge appears to persist across the central US into Monday and possibly Tuesday. Southerly flow under this upper-pattern should promote slightly above-average temperatures. Thankfully, long range guidance moves another trough in from the west by mid week that should return cooler weather and precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Ceilings slowly lifting and scattering in recent hours and expect VFR to dominate by 19Z. Enough confidence in a return to limiting stratus remains to keep the MVFR conditions in the forecast, but delayed it a few hours. Winds should be strong enough in the boundary layer to keep BR/FG from forming if stratus is delayed or fails to form, but this will need to be monitored.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.