textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
-Near record warm temperatures today.
-Cooler weather arrives later this week behind a cold front on Wednesday.
-Dry weather is expected until late in the upcoming weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 135 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
Southwesterly low level flow ahead of a cold front northwest of the forecast area today is contributing to a seasonably warm day. Temperatures in the 70s are actually approaching records, while average highs are in the upper 50s this time of the year. The boundary north of the area today moves to around I-70 tonight and becomes more diffuse. Nearly calm winds and clear skies create favorable conditions for radiational cooling overnight, which will take temperatures back into the 40s, below our crossover temperature. Thus, at least patchy fog, especially in river valleys or near water bodies seems probably tonight/early Tuesday. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today but still well above average.
A stronger cold front will push southward through the area early Wednesday as an upper trough quickly dives out of the Northern High Plains. No precipitation is expected with this system. Northwest winds will be gusting 20 to 30 mph behind the boundary as cooler air filters into the area. Temperatures in the 60s will still feel nice, but the breeze will be a factor. Much cooler conditions can then be expected for Thursday, and especially by Friday behind a secondary trough axis aloft and as a sfc ridge builds in from the north.
Temperatures begin to rebound this weekend as the sfc ridge moves east and an H5 ridge builds aloft. POPs then increase by Sunday afternoon as our next system approaches. Most models track the system to our south, but an initial area of enhanced lift within a rapidly moistening atmosphere ahead of the H5 trough could result in a batch of rain impacting northeastern Kansas during the day.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 518 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
MVFR fog is possible later tonight at KMHK and KTOP, but confidence in how dense and long lasting fog will be is much lower tonight than last night. Fog will be limited to river valleys. Wind less than 10 knots if favored through the TAF period.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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