textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-A similar setup to yesterday means another Red Flag Warning behind the dryline and a threat for severe storms east of the boundary today.

-Another round of storms is possible Wednesday, mainly in far eastern KS.

-A very dynamic system impacts the region Friday, bringing another threat for severe weather.

-Much cooler weather is expected this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A similar setup to yesterday shows an area of low pressure and cold front near the KS/NE border and a dryline extending southward through central portions of KS this morning. The dryline will mix eastward today, causing extreme fire danger conditions again in north-central KS. RH will drop to less than 20 percent with southwest winds gusting 35 to 40 mph. This prompted the need for another Red Flag Warning for the same areas as yesterday. Ahead of the dryline will be another unstable air mass, especially where dew points remain in the 60s across far eastern KS. CAMs are more aggressive today in developing scattered convection ahead of the dryline this evening with some height falls aloft ahead of an approaching H5 wave. Given a similar environment to yesterday, characterized by nearly 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and around 45 kts of effective shear, storms that develop will be capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. Localized flooding could also occur, especially where heavy rain has occurred in the last few days.

A more organized threat for severe storms could occur on Wednesday, mainly in far eastern KS as the H5 wave finally moves over the region, shunting a cold front into western MO. CAMs are in good agreement with storms developing along the cold front near or just southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, then quickly shifting storms in MO. But there could be at least a brief window for a few severe storms with large hail and damaging wind looking to be the main hazards.

Thursday should be a day free of precipitation with the region in between storm systems. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with lighter winds and sunny skies. A vigorous storm system will then approach from the west on Friday. Long range models still show some disagreement on the timing and placement of a strong sfc cold front and thunderstorm initiation, but there could be ample destabilization and deep layer shear in a strongly forced environment to produce severe thunderstorms. Much cooler conditions can be expected behind Friday's fast moving system for the upcoming weekend. We may even have to consider frost/freeze headlines for overnight low temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Southerly winds remain gusty today, with gusts of 30 kts common through midday and early afternoon. Scattered storms could develop late this afternoon or early this evening. Have included a PROB30 group at all terminals to account for this possibility. Confidence in exact placement and timing of storms is still not overly high, especially since storms could be scattered in coverage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for today in north- central KS due to low RH and strong south-southwest winds behind the dryline. These conditions will combine to create extreme fire danger again this afternoon. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to below 20 percent as dew points drop. South-southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph throughout the afternoon. Improvement in conditions is expected tomorrow with higher RH's and lighter winds in central KS. For today, however, burning should be avoided.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ034.