textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty showers or sprinkles are possible today and tonight. Slightly better rain chances (15-40%) come this weekend into early next week.

- A slow warming trend is expected the rest of this week before cooling down slightly early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Upper low continues to deepen off the Pacific coast with southwest flow aloft covering the Rockies and Plains. VAD wind profilers are indicative of a weaker shortwave in the OK/TX panhandle vicinity. A weak area of sfc low pressure is noted in the lee of the Rockies with weak isentropic ascent in OK and south central KS. In response to this, mid/high clouds are moving into the region with some light returns on radar, but only one observation of rain reaching the ground thus far in Wichita. Isentropic lift remains weak through the morning, but looks to increase somewhat into the afternoon with better upper support this evening and overnight from the passing shortwave. Overall, limited moisture through the column may mean less actual rainfall compared to what is shown on CAMs through the day today and overnight tonight. The thinking is that there is still enough to support a few light showers or sprinkles, which will likely be hit or miss over the next 24 hours, so have gone with a broad mention of this area-wide through early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, expect increasing cloud cover with enough southerly wind to keep high temperatures around 70 degrees.

Once the shortwave passes Wednesday morning, the upper ridge axis builds and inches closer to the area while the Pacific trough slowly moves onto the coast. This favors warmer temperatures for the middle and end of the work week, bringing highs to the mid and upper 70s while lows slowly climb through the 50s each morning. Models still diverge on their evolution of the western trough by the weekend, which results in differences in timing of the sfc front and associated rain chances. Some solutions are trying to stall the front nearby, or potentially still northwest of the area through the weekend and delay it until Monday. This leads to overall low confidence, low probability rain chances mainly in western portions of the area Saturday, which spread across the area into Monday. Temperatures overall trend a bit cooler (closer to seasonal norms) into early next week, but it remains to be seen exactly when we see that cool-down as spreads become larger Sunday and beyond.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions expected. Isolated to scattered showers are possible through much of the period; have included a PROB30 group for the most likely timeframe of -RA to impact terminals. Winds stay under 10kts from the south-southeast through the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.