textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat continues today through Wednesday despite persistent high clouds. Highs in the mid/upper 90s with heat indices around or a bit above 100.

- Late week trending a bit hotter, with cold front not moving quite as far south. Rain chances still increase Thursday night into Friday, particularly north of I-70.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Seasonably fast zonal flow continues across the northern tier of the CONUS this Monday morning, with broad ridging in place over the southern half of the country. Along the northern periphery of the ridge, water vapor imagery shows a broad plume of upper-level moisture pointed across northern Kansas. Scattered high-based showers and weak thunderstorms are again ongoing within this moisture plume, mostly towards the Nebraska border. Expecting less precipitation coverage by the daytime hours, but there should still be thick mid and high clouds across much of the area throughout the afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds can occur, temperatures could still quickly warm up towards the 100 degree mark, especially across central Kansas. But at this point think the pervasive cloud cover will keep temperatures in the low/mid 90s, especially north of I-70. Still hot nonetheless, with heat indices near/above 100, but will hold off on any Heat Advisory as a result.

The pattern remains similar Tuesday and Wednesday. We should see a continuation of the upper-level moisture plume, resulting in more periods of thick high clouds. This will keep temperatures a touch cooler than they otherwise could be. However with the low-level thermal ridge axis remaining nearby (700 mb temps ~15C), heat will stay in place. Still expecting temperatures in the mid/upper 90s with heat indices around or slightly above 100. Given persistent southerly winds keeping the boundary layer somewhat mixed, overnight lows will also remain warm - near 80.

For the second half of the week, temperatures are trending hotter. Most guidance is keeping the trough over the Great Lakes less amplified, resulting in the cold front not being able to make its way as far south over eastern KS. Most likely scenario now is for it to stall somewhere near the forecast area Wednesday night, staying stationary or only slowly sliding south through Saturday. This increases the potential for the early week heat to continue another extra day or two, especially south of I-70. Wherever it does end up, we'll see shower and thunderstorm chances continue along and north of the boundary.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Winds continue from the south to southwest over the next 24 hours at around 10 kts. With a strong southwesterly LLJ, marginal LLWS will continue until a bit after sunrise. VFR conditions will persist through the period, with best chance of any showers/storms north of the main terminals. Can't rule out some virga during the day though as mid/high clouds thicken and high-based showers evaporate into the dry air below.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.