textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light, widely scattered showers early today move out mid-morning with dry weather expected thereafter.

- Above average temperatures continue the rest of this week with a cooling trend early next week, alongside the next chance of rain centered on Monday (30-50%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A large closed low continues to spin off the CA coast with a ridge over the Southern Plains. A shortwave overhead rounding that ridge is responsible for widely scattered showers that remain across central and eastern KS early this morning. Once the upper wave passes to our east mid to late morning, that should end any lingering showers with subsidence taking over. That should also allow clouds to clear out with temperatures a little bit warmer than yesterday, reaching the mid to upper 70s. The upper ridge axis then moves overhead for Thursday and Friday, leading to slightly higher mid-level heights and increasing southerly winds, especially on Friday as lee sfc troughing deepens in response to the approaching upper trough to the west. While the spread in temperatures remains small, am thinking the 90th percentile is probably more accurate as models oftentimes are not warm enough in setups like these and we've already been seeing that trend the last few days, even if only by a few degrees. With that in mind, would think some places will probably see low 80s at some point between today and Saturday.

More of the guidance seems to be catching on to the slower trend with the upper trough and associated cold front. The lead shortwave on Friday looks to eject north/northeast of the area and phase with the northern stream troughing pattern in Canada, limiting its impact on our area. What remains of the southern stream looks to move across the Four Corners region Sunday and eventually through the Plains Monday, bringing the front through the area sometime Monday. There are still enough timing differences that result in large temperature spreads starting Sunday in north central KS if the front were to move faster and bring clouds/rain into the area that early. A slower solution would keep warmer/drier conditions area-wide through Sunday with better rain chances Monday, followed by cooler temperatures back towards average early next week. As of now, the higher PoPs (30-50%) are focused on Monday, which makes sense based on the recent trend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR continues. Considered adding mention of -RA at Topeka terminals for the first hour of this period with light rain ongoing, but at this point with most of it passing east, thinking that the rest of it should be east of the vicinity before the next hour is up. Otherwise, light south winds persist with high clouds passing east of terminals later this morning.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.