textproduct: Topeka

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Spring-like temperatures today and Tuesday with widespread readings in the 60s. Gusty winds return Tuesday.

- Cold front arrives Tuesday evening, returning near seasonal to below normal temps by the weekend. Precip probabilities remain low overall, focusing on isolated rain showers Tuesday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Mid level northwesterly flow is streaming through the central conus this morning, accompanied by an area of high clouds from northern NE to Iowa. These clouds mostly dissipate as they enter northeast Kansas, while sfc winds are west southwesterly at around 10 mph. Latest MOS and short term guidance is coming into better agreement with stronger downsloping flow at h925, mixing temps from 10-12C to the sfc area wide. Highs therefore were trended upward by a few degrees in the upper 50s to lower 60s today. If these readings come to fruition, it is likely highs Tuesday afternoon are closer to the middle and upper 60s as a 925 mb 15C thermal ridge axis spreads through the region. Behind the thermal axis, the cold front arrives Tuesday evening, enhancing CAA Wednesday as northerly winds increase from 15 to 25 mph sustained. Models are persistent in a midlevel perturbation traversing southward Tuesday evening, albeit differ in available moisture and coverage of light rain showers. There is a slight chance mention for rain showers with overall low confidence in measurable precipitation given the high spread amongst ensembles.

Unfortunately, precip probabilities remain low for the remainder of the week. A stronger closed low drops into the Midwest Friday night and Saturday, carrying another strong cold front in time for the weekend. Highs swing once again, but this time below normal with highs in the low 30s and lows in the teens Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 506 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR at terminals with light southwest winds this morning increasing just under 10 kts sustained aft 18Z.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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