textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Temperatures fluctuate up and down throughout the next seven days.

-Dry conditions are currently in the forecast, but long range models disagree on midweek precip probabilities.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a compact low spinning over the western Great Lakes region. A trough axis rotating around the low will move through the northwest flow and bring a quick moving mid-level cloud deck over northeast KS this evening. A few flurries could occur as the trough passes, but forecast soundings show some dry air near the surface, likely limiting flurry activity. Clearing skies and decreasing winds will make for a chilly night with lows falling into the low 20s by sunrise Sunday. Near normal temperatures are expected tomorrow before another warm up starts for the first few days of next week.

Westerly downslope winds allow temperatures to warm into the 50s on Monday and to near 60 degrees on Tuesday. A cold front associated with the next Great Lakes low drops temperatures midweek, again to near normal values for mid January. There is quite a bit of spread in long range models (GEFS around 10% chance to about 70% chance from ENS) on whether the area will receive measurable precip with the midweek system. Have maintained the NBM forecast of around 10% chances, but will watch trends with future model runs. Another front looks to arrive late in the week or early next weekend with the coldest air mass of this forecast package set to move in behind it.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 444 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

No significant changes to the going forecast. Mid-level cloud deck continues to sag south into the area this evening then clearing the area around or after midnight. Winds back to the WSW and increase into the midday and afternoon periods tomorrow generally between 10-15kts lasting through tomorrow evening.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.