textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and active pattern builds in through the end of the week and into next week, with near daily storm chances.

- Some storms each day (Today through TODO) could be severe. See discussion below for further details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis shows an amplified through across the eastern US. An upper level ridge was located across the Plains. An upper level trough was located across the Great Basin and northern high Plains.

The 6z surface map showed a ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes states southwest across southern MO, then southwest into northeast OK. A deep lee surface trough was located across east central CO. Temperatures were in the mid 50s east, with lower to mid 60s west. The airmass continues to be drier, with dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The richer gulf moisture was located along the southeast TX coast.

Today through Tonight:

The 850mb analysis showed richer moisture (Tds of 13-15 deg C) advecting northwest into south central and southwest KS. Numerical model solutions show this richer moisture at 850mb will advect northeast towards east central KS around sunrise. The richer moisture advection at 850mb will cause isentropic lift to develop across east central and northeast KS towards 12Z. The isentropic lift may cause a few showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms to develop between 12Z-14Z. These elevated showers and storms will move east int MO by 15Z. MUCAPEs will increase to 800-1200 J/KG across eastern KS, thus some of the elevates storms may produce small hail.

Skies will become mostly sunny to partly cloudy. The H5 trough across the Great Basin and northern high Plains will move east across the norther Plains. The southern fringe of the H5 trough axis will have a more amplified perturbation moving east across NE into northern KS. However an EML will overspread the warm sector causing a capping inversion. Several CAMs show the dryline shifting east into west central KS where high based thunderstorms may develop southeast of Colby, to Great Bend. However, dewpoints will mix out just ahead of the dryline and temperatures will reach the mid 90s with dewpoints in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Inverted V sounding may cause damaging wind gusts across west central KS late this afternoon. But these high based storms look to dissipate after sunset. As the ascent ahead of the mid level perturbation and combined with isentropic lift, may produce a few elevated storms across the CWA during the evening hours, with quarter-half dollar size hail being the greatest hazard. However, 3 CAMs are showing isolated surface based storms developing during the early evening hours across the western counties of the CWA. If this were to occur, then the threat for large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts would be possible. But looking at the forecast soundings for the 3 CAMs showing surface based storms, there remains a strong cap in place.

Highs Today today will reach the lower 80s east to mid to upper 80s west. The southwest counties may reach the lower 90s, especially if the dryline pushes a bit farther east.

Friday and Friday night:

Once again the capping inversion looks fairly strong and no surface based storms may develop. There will be a weak front across the far northern counties of the CWA. This boundary may provide some convergence for isolated surface based storms to develop. The mid level flow looks a bit weaker, thus effective shear will be only 20 KTS with 25 to 30 KTS along the NE border. MLCAPES will be 2500-3500 J/kg along and south of the boundary, thus any surface based storm will be severe and may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, if storms can develop. Highs on Friday will be warmer with upper 80s to lower 90s east and mid 90s west.

Saturday through Monday night:

An H5 trough will dig southeast from the central CA coast into the southwest US. The southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will increase to 30 to 40 KTS across western KS. A deeper lee side low will develop Saturday afternoon across southwest KS. A surface dryline will then punch northeast across southwest KS. A weak front will extend east-northeast along the NE and KS border. The combination of effective shear and MLCAPES of 3000-4000 J/KG will cause supercell thunderstorms to develop along the dryline in west central KS. Supercell thunderstorms may also develop along a warm front across north central KS. Forecast hodographs are curved and these supercell will be capable of producing tornadoes. After sunset these supercell storms will begin to congeal into line segments and move across portions of the CWA overnight. These line segments may be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. After midnight, these storms will become more elevated and may weaken. I cannot rule out a few supercell thunderstorms during the early evening hours along the warm front across the northwest counties of the CWA

The same set up is expected for Sunday, with the dryline pushing east into west central KS during the afternoon hours. sufficient vertical wind shear and inability for supercell thunderstorms to develop across west central KS during the late afternoon and early eventing hours due to convergence along the dryline. The warm front will lift northward into central NE. Also, capping inversion may strengthen Sunday afternoon across the warm sector. But overnight, any supercells that congeal into line segments will move east across portions of the CWA. The line segments may cause large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening hours. The storms may become more elevated and weaken after midnight.

Monday, the main H5 trough will amplify across the Four Corners region. A 50-60 KT H5 jet Max will list northeast across western KS into NE. Rich moisture will be in plaice and MLCAPES will likely increase within the warm sector to 2500 to 3500 J/KG The latest ECMWF solutions shows a potential tornado out break across the Plains. The GFS model solution is different with a the H5 trough farther east and less amplified. If the GFS solution were to verify a strong cold front will shift southeast across the CWA with a squall line developing ahead of the front across eastern KS Monday afternoon. The primary hazard with a line of storms will be damaging wind gusts, and possibly a few weaker mesovortex tornadoes. The triple point would be across southwest OK. The tornadic supercells would remain across far southwest OK into west central TX. The Canadian model is more similar to the ECMWF, which would show the potential of a tornado outbreak across the Plains. It will be interesting to see which model solution ends up verifying.

The more progressive GFS model solution will bring the surface front southeast of the CWA Sunday night, brining an end to the severe thunderstorm threat.

The slower Canadian and ECMWF solution will not bring the front southeast across the CWA until Tuesday afternoon. The effective shear and instability may result in a squall line develop along the front Tuesday afternoon. There may be a damaging wind threat for east central and northeast KS Tuesday afternoon, and the squall line may continue along the front into Tuesday evening across the southeast counties of the CWA.

Tuesday through Thursday:

The H5 trough across the central and southern high Plains will weaken as it shears apart with the northern branch lifting northeast across the upper Midwest. The southern stream section will slowly weaken across NM. A surface ridge will build southwest from the upper Midwest into northeast KS. A few perturbation from the NM H5 trough may lift northeast across the central Plains for a few rain showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday and Thursday. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will only reach into the 70s. Thursday will be a bit warmer with highs around 80.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

This morning there will be sct to BKN mid clouds above 10,000 feet. There may be a sprinkle or isolated shower in the next couple of hours. Boundary layer CU above 6000 feet may develop later this afternoon. There may be a few isolated showers or thunderstorms around the terminals but the probabilities are too low to include in the TAFs. Southerly winds should remain in the 12 to 15 KT range with gusts of 22 to 25 KTS, so low-level shear should be under 30 KTS.

CLIMATE

Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperature for Friday, May 15

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1944) 92 Concordia 91 (1944, 2012) 94

Record High Temperature for Saturday, May 16

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1931) 90 Concordia 93 (2019) 91

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.