textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible (20%) this afternoon for portions of central and east central Kansas.

- Areas of frost develop once again early Saturday morning, mainly north of Interstate 70 with lows in the lower 30s.

- Marginally strong to severe storms could form along a front late Monday afternoon into the evening. Much uncertainty remains on the front's location and severity of storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Broad upper trough axis and meridional flow is observed over the northern plains this afternoon with the low's center towards the Quebec province. Much of the moisture and thunderstorms are concentrated in the south central and southeast CONUS today and is remains the case throughout the weekend. An embedded weak wave passing south into Kansas this afternoon may generate scattered showers in north central and central Kansas. Forecast soundings exhibit high cloud bases while elevated instability is 100-200 J/KG. Severe weather is not expected today, however a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out.

Areas of frost once again develop after midnight as sfc high axis slides into northeast Kansas. Guidance is fairly uniform in lows Saturday morning in the lower 30s north of I-70, however could also see patchy frost in low lying areas along the I-70 corridor as readings drop into the middle 30s. High pressure axis influences the cooler high temps in the middle 60s Saturday afternoon before a lee trough deepens in response to the incoming upper low into southern CA on Sunday. Warming, downsloping flow boosts highs into the low 80s throughout the region on Sunday.

Northern stream troughing forces a front into the area by Monday afternoon as the southern stream jet max spreads into the central plains. Modified, return moisture from the Gulf is not impressive, approaching the upper 50s by Monday evening. In addition, a strong EML may limit the probability for severe, sfc-based storms initially along the boundary. As the evening goes on, a strengthening low level jet initiates elevated thunderstorms from central into eastern Kansas. Will continue to monitor trends into the weekend as timing and location of the front are key to where severe probabilities exist Monday evening. Several embedded waves traverse the region Tuesday through Wednesday as another northern stream trough gradually picks up the southern cutoff low. As the area is well behind the front, scattered precip chances are in the form of rain showers and non-severe storms during this period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR at sites as northwest winds this afternoon sustain at or below 10 kts. Mid clouds increase along a weak front in the late afternoon with a low probability for a rain shower near terminals. High pressure settles in this evening, clearing skies and calming winds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034.