textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers/storms across northern KS this afternoon, no severe weather expected.

- Mainly dry for the upcoming week aside from low rain chances (10- 30%) Tuesday and Thursday.

- Cooler through the work week, then warming up by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Upper air pattern shows broad cyclonic flow encompassing much of North America, with one shortwave passing just east of the forecast area and another moving through the Great Basin. Sfc low pressure in the Upper Midwest has brought a cold front across the area, and has just exited east of the CWA as of 19Z. This should keep the more robust thunderstorm activity east for the rest of today. Some spotty, elevated showers and weak storms are confined to locations north of I-70 and that should continue to be the case this afternoon. CAMs are in agreement that any remaining activity is done by mid to late afternoon.

High pressure continues to build in this evening into Tuesday. The shortwave to our west is progged to develop a batch of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Rockies and High Plains late tonight into Tuesday morning. The bulk of this looks to pass north of our area and into Nebraska, but have maintained some low PoPs in northern locations to account for an isolated shower making it into our CWA as is shown in some guidance. Additionally, isentropic lift associated with a wave passing south of us could bring some isolated to widely scattered showers to parts of east central KS Tuesday afternoon. There is some variability in how far north this activity makes it and how much coverage there may be. In both regimes, chances are overall low, and little to no instability should keep most of this as simply rain.

Wednesday brings zonal flow aloft before more shortwave energy brings another chance for rain Thursday. Differences in timing and placement in this wave keep PoPs low for the time being, but this is our most notable precipitation chance for the upcoming week with dry conditions expected thereafter. Overall cooler temperatures are forecast following today's cold front, bringing highs into the 60s through the end of the work week. A mid-level ridge favors a warm-up to the 70s for next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

VFR conditions are forecast, although some scattered cumulus between 2-4 kft may lead to some bounces to MVFR cigs at times this afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm is passing north of MHK, and looks to track far enough away from the site to keep TS mention out of the TAF for the first hour of the period. Will continue to monitor, but any elevated convection early this afternoon should remain outside of terminals. Otherwise, northwest winds persist with some gusts around 20 kts at times until they diminish around sunset. Some guidance tries to depict MVFR cigs returning late tonight, but not all models show this, and timing is not consistent in those that do. This lowers confidence in MVFR cigs occurring, so will keep VFR for now, but this will be something to monitor for future issuances.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.