textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Late season heat continues in the forecast through the upcoming week. Highs in the middle to upper 90s, heat indices near 100 each afternoon. No headlines planned, but the length of the stretch bears watching.

- Overnight lows mainly in the upper 70s put record warm lows on watch for Sunday through Tuesday.

- Rain chances minimal through Tuesday. A flatter ridge later in the week may allow a few storms over far northern Kansas, but no single day stands out as more probable than another right now.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The 00Z RAOB sampling and WV imagery show a strong ridge over the Four Corners with its axis extending into the central Plains. The Westerlies remain displaced generally across the northern Plains and southern Canada. The Great Lakes trough drifts east while the Pacific trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Mid level WV over Kansas is generally dry with overall subsidence in place. The monsoonal moist plume continues to stream across central California into the northern Plains. Surface high pressure ridge has slid into the Ohio Valley, with lee troughing continuing to deepen over eastern Colorado and western Kansas with low level flow returning from the south. The warm advection regime is underway for more warm and humid conditions.

Today, south winds reach to around 15 to 20 mph with gusts approaching 30 mph by afternoon and stay gusty into Monday as mid level southwesterly flow strengthen. H85 temperatures climb from the middle 20s C today to the upper 20s C Sunday. Forecast soundings continue to exhibit inverted V structure with a deep dry mixed layer, and that mixing caps dewpoints in the low to middle 60s while highs reach the middle to upper 90s. Peak heat indices land near 100, highest Sunday and Monday. Triple digits may be reached for highs across portions of north central Kansas, likely at Concordia Sunday and still possible Monday, with the Kansas River valley areas a few degrees cooler. Warm overnight lows give Topeka and Concordia a decent chance of holding near 80 Monday morning against a record warm low in the upper 70s, and several records are in play through Tuesday. Heat indices continue to remain just shy of advisory criteria, so no headlines for now. Duration into a fifth and sixth day is what we will be the primary potential hazard but acclimation to the heat this late in the season is high.

The ridge flattens early next week. Mid level heights generally lower through Tuesday as the Pacific trough ejects across the northern Plains, and the trailing front sags toward the Nebraska border Sunday night into Monday and effectively washes out. Ensembles keep trending drier across the area with the weak areas of ascent remaining north of the area with with minor shortwaves rippling through the upper flow. So, expect rain chances hold very low through Tuesday and no meaningful relief from the weak boundary. The ridge amplifies later in the week and highs stay in the middle 90s with heat indices near 100 through at least Thursday. Any storms would ride the northern edge of the ridge as mesoscale systems, and slight chances Thursday and Friday over far northern Kansas cover that. High confidence in the temperature trend, low confidence in any one day of storms.

Ensemble height spreads widen beyond Thursday, and the NBM trends cooler with highs back into the lower 90s Saturday and upper 80s by Sunday and Labor Day with lows possibly back in the 60s. Any meaningful precipitation chance remains to be seen at this point.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions persist through the period. LLWS conditions overnight into early morning still look marginal overall with mainly speed changes with altitude. Previous mention of turbulence is still the expectation into the early morning hours before partial BL decoupling is overcome by daytime mixing. South winds gust into the mid 20kt range this morning through much of the afternoon period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast August 30 Topeka 79, set in 1932 76 Concordia 78, set in 1951 78

August 31 Topeka 77, set in 1912 and 1947 78 Concordia 81, set in 1947 78

September 1 Topeka 81, set in 2011 78 Concordia 80, set in 1913 77

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.