textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Scattered rain showers continue into this evening before tapering off tonight.

-The weekend starts off dry and warm before another system brings rain back to the region.

-Cooler weather moves into the area next week, precip chances continue to trend down during that timeframe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today's rainfall is associated with a passing mid-level shortwave trough axis and surface low moving through southeastern KS this afternoon. Many locations have received between 1.0 and 2.0 inches of moisture since yesterday evening, with a new daily rainfall record set at KTOP. Scattered showers will continue to occur northwest of the surface low as it moves through southern MO and further east of the area this evening. Forecast soundings show drier air starting to advect into the region as lift decreases while a ridge axis builds overhead tonight. Areas of fog could develop late tonight and early Saturday due to a combination of soggy ground conditions, clearing skies and light winds.

The early portion of the weekend will feature drier weather, sunshine and temps warming to near 60 degrees as a ridge axis becomes established aloft over the south-central US. Further west, a large cutoff low near Baja California will eject northeast over the CO Rockies by Sunday evening. Southerly flow ahead of that system will advect more moisture into the region with pwats increasing to around 1.0 inch. A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE could also develop as a surface low deepens just west of the forecast area. POPs begin to increase from west to east Sunday night with 60-80% chances for rain and maybe an embedded thunderstorm on Monday. The LREF Grand Ensemble shows mean rainfall totals around a quarter of an inch, and only a 10% chance of half an inch or more.

Dry weather returns Tuesday while a northern stream trough axis quickly follows the weakening Baja system through the Upper Midwest. That will bring a cold front through northeast KS, followed by much cooler weather by midweek. Trends for precipitation late in the week continue to decrease, with confidence increasing in a cold but dry Thanksgiving forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

No significant changes to the going forecast. Showers continue to diminish over the next couple of hours with overall lift waning. Clouds expected to be slow to clear the area as the upper level system departs to the east with residual low level moisture slow to be mixed with dry air as light winds remain with little advection. Thus, there may only be a short window for radiational cooling to allow any meaningful fog to form around the terminals. Any visibility concerns to IFR or lower expected to be patchy and relatively short in duration around sunrise into mid-morning. By midday, more clearing takes place with dry air mixing out any lingering low level clouds with mid to high clouds left into the afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.