textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry and warm Fall conditions persist through the weekend.
- Next chance for precipitation comes Sunday night into Monday with best chances across central Kansas (30-50%).
- Mostly dry weather builds in following Monday with chances for rain later in the week. Temperatures begin to fall back closer to average.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows ridging across the central Plains just ahead of a negitively-tilted trough across the Great Basin and central Rockies. This shortwave has led to ample precipitation across much of the Rockies and desert southwest with upper-level moisture filtering into the high Plains. Over the next few days, the upper-level ridge will remain overhead keeping dry and warm conditions across eastern Kansas. Expect highs each afternoon through Sunday to top out in the upper 70s with lows each morning in the mid 50s.
Changes in the warm and dry weather builds in Sunday night into Monday as the western trough begins to eject off the Colorado Rockies. Mid-level lift paired with isentropic upglide should increase across much of western and central Kansas leading to widespread precipitation in those areas into Monday morning. Best chances to see precipitation will remain across far central Kansas (30-50%) with chances decreasing as you head towards far eastern Kansas. A weak frontal boundary passage Tuesday morning should bring an end to precipitation chances as the main upper low passes off to our north and east Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures behind this weak front should return to near-average for late October. By the later half of the work week, long-range guidance begins to bring in a few more troughs from the west coast. There is still some timing and location discrepancies between models at this time, but general consensus is for a more active pattern by late next week that should return low-end PoPs to eastern Kansas.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
VFR TAFs persist at all terminals with gusty winds expected later this morning through the afternoon. Gusts decrease around sunset this evening with light southerly winds through the end of the period.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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