textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Any fog this morning stays shallow and patchy under high clouds, with no widespread impacts.

- Dry and above average through Wednesday with highs in the 60s to near 70.

- Cooler Thursday and Friday with the extent of the cooldown still somewhat uncertain and a warming trend into next weekend possible again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The area sits under weak flow aloft between a closed low over New England, a shortwave dropping out of Manitoba, and a cutoff low near the New Mexico and Mexico border. Surface high pressure is centered over Kansas and Oklahoma, with cirrus streaming across the northern counties ahead of a weak surface trough over Nebraska.

Fog is a smaller concern than it looked a few hours ago. Cirrus spreading overhead has limited the radiational cooling, road cameras show no fog, and the 12Z sounding keeps any saturated layer only a few meters deep, so at most very shallow ground fog forms in the valleys before sunrise.

A weak front/surface trough slides through late morning with winds turning northwest, and deeper mixing under full sunshine pushes highs into the mid to upper 60s. Broad low amplitude ridging holds Monday and Tuesday, and with 850 mb temperatures and heights in place, highs near 70 continue both days.

The main front arrives Wednesday night as a Pacific trough digs toward the central Plains, putting the area in northwest flow with gusty north winds Thursday and highs falling into the 50s. How far west the trough axis digs decides how cool temperatures become. The GFS still keeps it farther southwest with the colder airmass reaching the area, while the ECMWF and Canadian hold the deeper trough with more direct CAA displaced northeast of the area. The ensemble clusters split nearly evenly between those outcomes, so the forecast holds around the 50th percentile with upper 50s Thursday and Friday. Beyond that, the clusters favor higher amplitude ridging building over the Plains into next weekend and possibly beyond, so temperatures rebound into the 60s with dry weather holding through the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Weak sfc trough has moved through, so light winds should be predominantly from the north the rest of this afternoon. Will need to watch for fog once again tonight into Monday morning with the sfc ridge axis setting up across eastern KS into MO. The signal for fog development is stronger this time with crossover temperatures more likely to be reached. It is less certain how dense it could be, but think it's worth at least a MVFR mention at TOP/FOE for this issuance. Confidence is not as high at MHK, so held off there for now. Winds pick back up from the southwest towards the end of the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.