textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather continues for Memorial Day, and most likely Tuesday as well.

- Daily rain chances are forecast Wednesday through next weekend, although severe weather risks are low.

- Near average temperatures are forecast Wednesday through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The upper air pattern early this morning depicts a large low off the coast of British Columbia with a couple of other smaller shortwaves through Canada eastward to Ontario. Water vapor imagery shows moisture streaming from the Gulf northeastward through the Eastern Seaboard. Closer to home, a weak shortwave is noted in TX with our area in between systems and within weak flow overall. Surface high pressure is just to our east with a weak trough axis noted across the High Plains. Southerly winds and plenty of sunshine should result in temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday, bringing highs to the mid to upper 80s.

Heading into Tuesday, the TX shortwave strengthens a bit and moves north through the Ozarks region. Most guidance keeps us dry through most of the day Tuesday and think that should be the case at least for the vast majority of the area. Out of all the CAMs, only the HRRR brings any rain into our area late in the afternoon, and even that is isolated with rain chances favored more to our south and east where the better lift resides. So while the high end of guidance indicates an isolated shower or two would be possible, think this is only around a 10% chance.

Rain chances increase Wednesday and especially Thursday as another shortwave ejects out of the larger upper low that will be set up over the CA/NV vicinity. The upper trough axis looks to move across the Central Plains Thursday, leading to our best chance for widespread rain in the forecast period (75-85% at any particular location). Friday and beyond, rain chances become more nebulous as the likelihood of precip will largely be related to how a system over the Northeast evolves and how far west it will still have an influence. One possible scenario is that we do see enough height falls with a back door cold front type of set up to bring additional showers/storms next weekend. Another scenario is for upper ridging to take hold over the central part of the country. PoPs are lower heading into next weekend to account for the uncertainty with these differences.

Overall, each day Wednesday onward favors a diurnal trend with any showers and storms that develop as instability peaks with daytime heating and flow remains weak. Given that shear also looks weak, severe weather does not look favorable at this time. Additionally, there should be some dry time with the pattern favoring hit or miss showers and storms like we tend to see in summer, so a washout is not anticipated late this week into the weekend. Temperatures look to be near average with highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light winds will pick up from the S to SSE and remain near 10 kts for the bulk of the daytime hours today, then diminish with sunset. VFR continues.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.