textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder continue today and tonight, though coverage gradually decreases with time.

- Marginal risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday evenings towards a dryline in central Kansas.

- Temperatures stay slightly above average for the next week, highs in the 80s most days after today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning depicts a quasi-Omega block pattern in place across the CONUS, anchored underneath a strong upper high over the northern Plains. Beneath this upper high is a weak and elongated positively tilted trough over Kansas and Oklahoma, with a stronger upper low farther west over southern California. Scattered showers remain in place ahead of the trough axis. These should linger through the morning hours but gradually decrease in coverage and intensity as the trough axis lifts north. Behind these showers, could see some additional pop-up showers/thunderstorms develop if skies can clear out and some weak instability develop.

Another band of showers and thunderstorms looks probable (60%) late tonight into Saturday morning as the upper low over California lifts northeast towards the central High Plains and isentropic ascent redevelops across eastern Kansas. Following this, will have to watch the dryline in central Kansas Saturday evening. Weak height falls overspread the region as the upper trough becomes negatively tilted, and with an unstable environment this should be enough for a few scattered storms to develop. Initial storms would likely be west of the forecast area, but depending on where they form could eventually move into western portions of the CWA Saturday evening. If this did occur, weak effective shear 20-25 kts would limit the larger severe threat, but with strong instability (4000+ ML CAPE) some large hail and damaging winds would be possible.

Another conditional severe weather threat is in place for Sunday. Storm development is a big question, as heights will rise throughout the PM and some degree of capping will likely be present. However if low-level convergence is enough to develop a storm the environment will be rather favorable for severe weather. High ML CAPE (3500 J/kg) will still be present, with effective shear increasing to around 35 kts. So could see a supercell mode with any storm that manages to form, with large to very large hail and damaging winds.

Heading into the first half of next week, ridging will continue to expand across the southern and central Plains. This will keep temperatures on the warmer side of average, though strengthening high pressure over the Great Lakes will eventually send a weak backdoor cold front southward. This front may serve as a focus for additional showers and thunderstorm chances mid-week, but for now confidence in details remains low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Scattered rain showers will gradually taper off in coverage and intensity throughout the day. Could see a few weak thunderstorms redevelop in the afternoon, but confidence is low for now. Can't rule out ceilings briefly bouncing down to IFR again, but they have predominantly stayed MVFR, so expect that to continue, with a steady rising to VFR by early evening. Winds stay 5-10 kts from the southeast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.