textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Well-above normal temperatures (10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels) anticipated Monday through Wednesday.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday/Friday, model spread yields a high degree of variability.

- Turning cooler next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Dense cirrus canopy has finally pushed east of the entire forecast area as of early this afternoon, with notable warming in its wake. Temperatures have warmed into the lower 50s to lower 60s - some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Gusty southerly winds will begin to relax as sunset approaches, and even with clear skies tonight, most areas should remain at or above freezing.

Zonal flow will remain across the region through mid-week, providing an expansive warm sector across the southern/central CONUS. High confidence remains for above average temperatures Monday through Wednesday, with highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s (some 10 to 20 degrees above normal). With dry weather and relatively light winds through this period, exceptional outdoor weather for January can be anticipated for the first half of the work week.

The primary appreciable weather focus continues for the Thursday into Friday period. A closed low over Baja California is expected to open over the Sonora Desert and rapidly eject towards the Central Plains, phasing with a larger longwave trough over the Intermountain West. The evolution, strength, and track of these synoptic features will play a notable role in precipitation chances during this window. Ensemble spread remains large, and likewise official forecast mean may be on the lower end of expected QPF - some areas may receive in excess of a quarter-inch of precipitation, but predictability remains low at this time. Furthermore, if the low pressure deepens, wrap-around precipitation with a cold enough column may allow for wet snow across northern Kansas as the system departs. Bottom line, this is the best window for precipitation for our forecast area in the next week, but uncertainty in key features remain.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 504 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

The current gustier south winds will weaken some overnight, to around 5 kts at KTOP and KMHK in the river valley, and around 10 kts at FOE in the slightly higher terrain. Could see some fog move in towards sunrise as surface moisture increases, though the best chance for this will be south of KTOP/KFOE. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the day tomorrow with continued 5-10 kt southerly winds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.