textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold air filters in today and persists into the weekend with Sunday seeing the lowest temperatures.

- Dry forecast continues over the next week.

- Temperatures rebound next week, warming back into the 50s and low 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Northwesterly flow still dominates the pattern across the central Plains as an embedded shortwave that helped push a cold front through the area has pushed into the Great Lakes region. CAA continues for the remainder of the day today with minimal warming by the afternoon - maybe warming 10 degrees from morning lows. Expect temperatures this afternoon to top out in the upper 30s and low 40s from far northeast to central Kansas respectively.

By tonight and into early Saturday morning, the surface ridge axis passes east of the area flipping winds out of the south/southeast in response to a weak mid-level perturbation passing over the central Rockies. The mid-level wave quickly passes overhead by midday Saturday, pushing the surface low into south-central Kansas. Another shot of cold air quickly moves in behind the surface trough mitigating any diurnal warming for most areas north of I-70. Areas north of I-70 will struggle to get out of the 20s with areas south warming into the mid to upper 30s due to the delay of the post- frontal CAA. That said, if the cold front speeds up, temperatures south of I-70 may only warm into the low 30s Saturday afternoon. While the forecast has no mention of any snow/flurries making it into far northeastern Kansas Saturday afternoon, still keeping an eye on how far south the extent of precipitation will get. The best forcing and moisture profiles exist east and north of the area so thinking is still on board with all precipitation chances staying in Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa. Nearly all ensemble and short range guidance has near zero probabilities of 0.01" of snow Saturday.

By Saturday night and into Sunday morning, an arctic 1040 mb surface high will track south from the northern Plains into eastern NE and western IA. Under mostly clear skies and light winds, expect temperatures by sunrise Sunday morning to plummet into the single digits. Areas closer to the surface ridge in far northeastern Kansas could see temps bottom out near zero degrees. By the afternoon Sunday, some recovery should be noted as the surface ridge slides east and light WAA helps the area warm into the 20s. The warming trend will continue into early next week as mid-level ridging builds east from the western US, returning temperatures to the 50s and low 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday. The extended temperature forecast looks to remain above-average as long range ensemble guidance depicts anomalously-warm 500 mb heights. Zonal flow late next week appears to shunt all the colder air well north of the area, so hopefully we can see some nice weather for December!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 508 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Main short term concern at all sites will be the chance of MVFR stratus building in from the north. Currently have no mention of a broken MVFR deck and kept things scattered as mos guidance is not confident in a widespread deck through the morning hours. Recent trends back this up via latest satellite trends. Went ahead and added a tempo group in for a possible MVFR deck that moves in since confidence is low. Any stratus that does develop would break up by mid afternoon with mid and high clouds for the remainder of the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.