textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms remains for late Tuesday afternoon to early Tuesday evening southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.

- Warm temperatures dominate, with near-record values possible Friday and Saturday.

- Several chances for showers and storms this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Upper pattern becomes more progressive for this forecast period. A shortwave along the U.S./Canada border drags a cold front southeast across Kansas late tonight into Tuesday night. Northerly low-level flow from roughly the Red River south to the Gulf will keep moisture quality with this front low with a moderate cap in place above it. Frontal convergence is not very strong, but could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development in portions of east-central Kansas late Tuesday afternoon to early Tuesday evening. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and deep-layer shear around 40 knots could support severe storms with a wind and hail threat. Highs in the middle and upper 80s Tuesday only back off a category or two for Wednesday as modified surface high pressure moves through.

Warm-air advection regime sets up Wednesday night into Thursday as a stronger upper wave moves across the northern Plains. At this point available moisture still looks rather low for any notable precipitation chance until another modified cold front comes Thursday night, but this too could be moisture-starved. Thursday's highs could be tricky depending on cloud persistence with NBM ranges rather high at this range. Greater precipitation chances should come this weekend into early next week as southwest upper flow dominates with better Gulf moisture availability. Ahead of this moisture, the WAA brings 850 mb temperatures into the 90th percentile range of climatology to bring highs close to record values, including record warm low potential Friday night. Somewhat cooler temperatures are anticipated Monday though model spreads in the larger scale increase notably at this point.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A dry lower troposphere will keep VFR conditions going. Wind direction may vary slightly, but south-southwest should dominate with little speed change as a cold front approaches late in this forecast. Have kept low-level wind shear out of the forecast but a small window of marginal shear is possible around 10Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Record High Temperature for May 15

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1944) 93 Concordia 91 (1944, 2012) 92

Record Highest Minimum Temperature for May 15

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 71 (1977) 68 Concordia 69 (1962) 65

Record High Temperature for May 16

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1931) 91 Concordia 93 (2019) 91

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.