textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light showers or sprinkles possible tonight into Friday, better rain chances (50-80%) Saturday night

- Near to above normal temperatures through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest flow aloft continues across the area as we remain on the southwest periphery of a large upper low centered over the Hudson Bay. A smaller upper low is noted over northwestern Mexico with ridging off the Pacific coast. Closer to home, breezy southwest winds amid sunshine have allowed temperatures to warm closer to seasonal values today in the 70s. Tonight into Friday, a weak perturbation aloft ejects out of the Rockies and moves through the area, bringing a weak sfc boundary along with it. CAMs have spotty reflectivity mainly near the KS/NE border tonight and again in east central KS Friday late morning and afternoon; however, forecast soundings show abundant dry air below 700mb. Would not expect much of this to reach the ground, if any, but will continue with small PoPs to account for a stray shower or sprinkle. East central KS may see slightly better moisture quality just ahead of the weak front Friday, but Td depressions are still fairly high. Other than low precip chances, little change in air mass is expected with this front as temperatures still reach the 70s, similar to today.

Most of the daytime hours Saturday should remain dry and warm with highs in the 80s before the next wave aloft moves in, followed by the cold front Saturday night. Somewhat better moisture return should take place, although based on soundings, it looks like the sufficient moisture holds off until the evening hours at which point instability starts to wane. This keeps severe weather potential low with rainfall amounts looking light, but at least a few thunderstorms would be plausible.

High pressure builds in Sunday, leaving clearing skies with highs back to the 70s behind the front. The upper ridge to our west builds early next week, resulting in a warming trend and bringing highs into the 80s through at least the middle of the week. It's worth noting a system to our north brings a slight rain chance Monday night into early Tuesday, but there has been some variation on the track of the associated sfc low, so confidence remains low in how much that system will ultimately impact us.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions continue with mainly mid to high clouds streaming across the area into the day tomorrow. LLWS sets up during the overnight period and lasts until around mid-morning when an upper level wave pushes a surface front into and through the area. Winds change to the NNW through the late morning into the afternoon but generally remain around or just below 10kts much of the time. Could have a few showers drift across the area from early morning into midday but generally with a dry lower atmosphere in place any precipitation that may develop would be light and brief. Therefore, probability of precipitation remains too low to mention at this time.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.