textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and mainly cloudy into Tuesday with more patchy drizzle possible.

- Rain chances return mid week into the weekend with warmer temperatures likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Zonal upper flow with weak surface high pressure to the north keeping conditions rather benign and much more fall like than recent weeks. Low stratus was slowly diminishing with a moderate inversion over the boundary layer on the 12Z sounding. Conditions only slowly change into early Wednesday so stratus returning and building down again tonight is anticipated as per most hi-res models. Some patchy drizzle could return late tonight into Tuesday morning with slow clearing again for highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Modest southerly flow off the surface returns Wednesday for somewhat better mixing and less stratus concern as upper heights slowly rise under a building south-central CONUS ridge.

Mid and upper levels moisten considerably late Wednesday into Friday as the upper ridge nudges east. Precipitable water values reach around 1.7 inches though forcing for ascent is not strong. Moderate NBM precipitation chances seem reasonable in this pattern with little concern for any heavy amounts or shear/instability to support severe convection. A northern states wave should push the greater moisture east of the area by late in the weekend. Temperature specifics are hard to nail down with warmer temperatures outside of precipitation but some 80s for highs seem likely for at least Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

IFR ceilings will return over the first few hours of the TAF with drizzle reducing VIS a bit through sunrise Tuesday. CIGs should slowly rise through the morning, becoming MVFR and then scattering out by the afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.