textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds from the northwest are likely to gust between 40 and 60 mph today. These winds could bring down tree limbs and power lines.

- Some very light snow remains possible this afternoon. Any snow could severely limit visibilities with sudden changes in snow squalls.

- Very cold temperatures move in tonight. Wind chills Monday morning are expected to range between zero and 10 below zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

07Z water vapor showed a shortwave digging southeast towards the central high plains. Surface obs placed a low over central KS.

There isn't much change to the forecast. A strengthening pressure gradient behind the surface low is going to bring very strong winds to the area today and a high wind warning and wind advisory remain in place. Fortunately models continue to show only very light QPF on the back side of the system. Limited moisture as the better dynamics pass by is the main reason precipitation amounts are forecast to be less than a tenth of an inch. Still any snow this afternoon will cause restrictions to visibility. As for the winds, models are in good agreement for a strong pressure gradient with winds perpendicular to the isallobars and 3hr pressure rises greater than 10 MB. Additionally forecast soundings show over 50KT within the mixed layer with dry adiabatic lapse rates conducive for these winds to reach the surface. The 00Z HREF and 01Z NBM show probabilities for gusts of 40 to 50 mph near 100 percent. Based on the model progs think sporadic gusts near 60 mph are plausible through the day. There are no winter headlines posted due to the limited accumulations expected. But later shifts will need to be on the look out for sudden visibility changes should a band of snow develop.

Temperatures will drop like a rock through the day and overnight with lows Monday morning in the teens. The winds will make it feel like it is zero to 10 below when people are heading out to work in the morning.

There remains good agreement in the overall pattern through the workweek. An upper ridge develops over the southwest and slowly expands towards the southern high plains. Cluster analysis on the 00Z ensembles shows minor differences in the amplitude of the ridge across the northern Rockies and into the northern plains. This should only have minor influence over the sensible weather here. Predictability of this pattern looks good with the NBM and ensembles showing small spreads in temps through Friday. Increasing spreads show up for next weekend as differences in how the ridge breaks down are noted among the operational models. There could be a potential backdoor front move into the area next weekend. Have stuck with the mean solution for highs Saturday in the 70s, but the possible range of outcomes span more than 25 degrees from the NBM and reflect the uncertainty in which side of the front we end up on.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Winds are the main driver of the forecast with the FROPA timed for mid morning. There looks to be a brief period of MVFR CIGS post frontal. And I can't rule out some very light snow at TOP and FOE through the afternoon. But little or no accumulation is anticipated with the main impact from reduced VSBY. Very strong northwest winds will gust between 35KT and 50KT behind the front well into the evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Fire weather concerns are entirely driven by the very strong winds today. Falling temps are likely to keep minimum RH values around 50 percent. This with the cloud cover tends to keep the rangeland fire danger index in the low to moderate range. I think this under represents the risk presented by the winds and will go with a blanket very high fire danger today as any fire may be hard to chase down.

The fire danger on Monday hinges on how fast winds subside through the afternoon. Very dry air with the surface ridging is expected to bring RH values down to around 20 percent. At this point the forecast still shows some gusts around 25 to 30 mph into the afternoon and potential red flag conditions.

Fire concerns for the rest of the week look more manageable with light winds even though temps look to warm into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 11 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ058. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight for KSZ040-KSZ056-KSZ059.