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KEY MESSAGES

-Elevated fire danger prompts the need for a Red Flag Warning in north-central KS today.

-Storms could impact far eastern KS Tuesday evening, bringing a threat for severe weather.

-Additional storm chances occur Wednesday and again Friday, with more uncertainty on timing/location.

-Cooler weather expected this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This morning, surface low pressure sits over south-central Nebraska and a dryline extends southward through central portions of Kansas. A 50kt LLJ is pushing into east-central KS, which is allowing for some isentropic ascent early today. With that, a few small showers or storms may develop prior to sunrise. Forecast soundings show a strong low level inversion, but efficient mixing of the boundary layer into the afternoon will make for a warm and windy day. Temperatures will warm well into the 80s this afternoon and will approach 90 degrees in central KS. The dryline looks to mix eastward which will cause dew points to drop in central KS. The combination of low RH and strong winds has prompted the need for fire headlines for the far western portion of the CWA - see the fire section below for more details. Otherwise, POPs remain less than 15% later today without much in the way of forcing to get storms going.

A better chance for storms will occur Tuesday evening as an H5 wave begins to approach the region from the west. Dew points will be highest across far east-central KS ahead of the aforementioned dryline. Forecast soundings ahead of that boundary show steep mid- level lapse rates, over 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, 1000 J/kg of DCAPE and around 40 kts of effective shear. Storms that form in this environment will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. LCL's are a little high, but there is at least a low risk for a tornado. This threat, however, seems confined to a small portion of the area - highest in far east-central KS and moving into MO. For other locations, elevated fire danger conditions will again be a concern behind the dryline, although the threat does not look as extreme as today.

A cold front will slowly work across the area on Wednesday as the main upper wave continues to move northeast from the High Plains into the Midwest. Another round of storms could develop along the front in the afternoon, but there are noticeable placement differences between models. The EC is further east into MO with the higher chances for storms while the GFS holds the front back in eastern KS a little longer. Thursday will be sunny and warm with highs in the mid 80s. A longwave trough will then progress over the western CONUS and enter the High Plains late Friday. Thunderstorms could again form in an unstable air mass ahead of a strong cold front Friday afternoon. This will be the next timeframe to watch for severe potential. Much cooler weather is then expected this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 508 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MVFR CIGS should scatter early this period and VFR will continue for the rest of the day. Wind is then the main aviation hazard today. South-southwest winds will be sustained at 10 and 20 kts, with gusts around 30 kts. Winds decrease slightly after sunset, but some gusts could continue through the night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

While green up of vegetation is underway, a Red Flag Warning has been issued today in north-central KS where gusty winds and low RH will combine to create extreme fire danger. Dew points are forecast to drop this afternoon in this area as a dryline moves east. Minimum RH behind the dryline could quickly fall to around 20 percent. South-southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph throughout the afternoon. Similar conditions will be in place behind the dryline (mainly in central KS) on Tuesday, with minimum RH between 20 and 25 percent and continued gusty south-southwest winds. Fire headlines are not currently anticipated Tuesday, but future forecast shifts will have to evaluate the need closely.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ034.