textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very high fire danger is expected area-wide Friday afternoon. Warm, dry, and moderately breezy conditions.

- Medium confidence in a light/moderate wintry mix Sunday into Sunday night, most likely towards the Nebraska border. Much lower confidence in winter wx impacts farther south.

- Increasing potential for a wet pattern developing towards the middle and end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Clear and calm across the area today, underneath northwest flow aloft and weak surface ridging. Still fairly warm, as low to mid- level flow remains primarily westerly, with the core of the cold staying off towards the Great Lakes.

Heading into tomorrow, a stronger northern stream shortwave over the Upper Midwest will begin to shunt a cold front southward down the Plains. Ahead of the front, we'll see a surge of southwesterly WAA. This, coupled with abundant sunshine and deep mixing, will help temperatures climb into the mid-70s, near record territory. As mentioned in this morning's fire weather discussion, winds will slightly decrease over the afternoon hours when RH is at its lowest. This will keep fire danger just below Red Flag criteria, but still very high fire danger nonetheless. The aforementioned cold front will begin move southward through the area on Saturday. Some moderate uncertainty remains in the exact frontal timing, but in general temperatures still look to remain in the 60s to low 70s for much of the area along/south of I-70.

As the front continues south Saturday night and stalls across Oklahoma Sunday, colder air will settle in area-wide. As a southern stream shortwave then approaches from the west, a period of isentropic ascent will develop north of the front. This should support scattered light to moderate areas of precipitation. The key question though, how deep and far south will the cold air push? Right now, there is a sizable split in model guidance. The NAM and GFS (and related ensembles) are deeper and farther south with the cold air. This would support more snow across northern Kansas and a mix of sleet along and even south of I-70. On the other hand, the Euro and Canadian models (and their related ensembles) have more southerly 850 mb winds, resulting in a deeper warm nose and surface temperatures above or within a few degrees of freezing. This would generally limit the sleet/freezing rain potential to far northern Kansas with mostly plain light rain showers for the rest of the area. At this time, both scenarios (or something in the middle) seem equally plausible, though personally I lean a bit towards the warmer scenario. Regardless, given the potential for at least minor winter weather impacts, continue to monitor trends closely.

By the middle and end of next week, long range guidance is consistent on an amplified longwave trough setting up over the western CONUS. This would support southwest flow aloft over the Plains, with deep moisture return from the Gulf. Details will be heavily dependent on the timing and placement of embedded shortwaves, but the overall pattern tends to support widespread (and potentially heavy) rainfall chances and even some thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Expecting clear skies with light (around or below 5 kts) northwest winds to continue through tonight. Winds do look to increase from the southwest at the very end of the period, to around 10-12 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 247 AM CST Thur Feb 26 2026

Widespread Very High Fire danger will be expected Friday afternoon as very low RH values and gusty southwest/westerly winds develop. Efficient warming will take place by Friday as mostly clear skies and downsloping westerly flow leads to well-mixed BLs (up to 850- 750mb) by the afternoon. This should not just promote temperatures pushing into the mid 70s across the area, but dewpoints mixing out into the low 30s - possibly lower. Afternoon RH values will drop into the 15-28% range with southwest/westerly winds sustained between 10-15 mph and gusting to 20-25 mph. Recent model guidance depicts a 30-40 knot 850 jet across far northeast Kansas that could mix down slightly stronger wind gusts in the late morning and. early afternoon. While winds are not as strong as some fire events, the very dry air will quickly cure fuels by the afternoon making fires difficult to control. By the later afternoon hours, fire danger across north-central KS should begin to decrease a bit as a weak surface trough moves in from the north, weakening winds. Winds will still remain gusty further south and east, not falling below 10 mph until 5-6 PM. RH values will also be slow to recover, not getting above 40% until 8-10 PM.

CLIMATE

Issued at 146 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Friday February 27 High Temperatures Topeka Record High: 76 in 1932 Forecast High: 75 Concordia Record High: 77 in 2016 Forecast High: 72

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.