textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Light precipitation possible across east-central Kansas through this evening.

- Cold on Thursday with morning wind chills in the single digits and highs in the 20s.

- Chances (10-25%) for rain/snow return Saturday night into Sunday, although only light amounts are currently expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Mid-level, quasi-zonal flow resides across the Central Plains this afternoon with a positively-tilted shortwave over the Desert Southwest. The surface cold front has made its way through the entire area with breezy northwest winds ushering in a colder airmass. Low-cloud coverage has increased behind the boundary and modest ascent in a deeper cloud deck across east-central Kansas could generate some light precipitation this afternoon and evening. Initially, rain or drizzle is favored, but a cooling column could support a mix of snow later this evening before drier air works into the area. Cloud coverage will decrease from north to south through the evening, although there is uncertainty in how fast this occurs. Currently seeing clearing of low clouds closer to the Nebraska border, but high clouds are increasing from the southwest. It seems more likely than not to have at least a several hour period of clearing where good radiational cooling will drop temperatures in the teens and single digits. However, if clouds hang on longer, lows could be warmer than forecast and hold in the 20s. The record low temperature at Topeka could be in jeopardy; refer to the Climate Section below for details.

Surface high pressure controls the region tomorrow, leading to a chilly day with highs only reaching into the 20s. Surface winds become more southerly by Friday, aiding in bumping highs into the upper 30s to mid 40s, still below climatological norms. Northwest flow aloft persists into early next week with waves of energy passing through the mean flow. Guidance continues to highlight the Saturday night-Sunday wave as the most likely to produce some precipitation across the area. Ensembles are coming into better agreement with this wave and 30-50% of LREF members have measurable precipitation across the forecast area during this timeframe. NBM is slowly catching on, but its PoPs remain lower than the ensembles suggest. PoPs may increase with subsequent runs if this signal remains consistent. Thermodynamic profiles support a mix of rain and snow depending on timing and location of the wave, but precipitation amounts are favored to be minor at this time. Temperatures fall again on Sunday behind this system before moderating into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 511 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

MVFR CIGs have continued to push south of the terminals over the past few hours so TAFs should remain VFR through the period at all sites with NNE winds falling below 10 knots this evening. Surface ridging builds in for the day Thursday with calm winds. Light southerly flow returns by late in the TAF period, but should remain below 10 knots so kept mention out at this time.

CLIMATE

Updated at 246 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Record Low Temperatures for Dec 4...

Current Record Forecast

Topeka 8, set in 1902 11 Concordia -2, set in 1886 10

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.