textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Above-normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days. Monday will be the warmest day with highs forecast to be in the low to mid 70s!

- Next chance (15-40%) for precipitation comes Tuesday-Tuesday night in the form of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

The anomalously strong ridge across the Rockies is building into the Plains early this morning with a surface ridge axis extends into the local area. Clear skies and light winds have allowed for good radiational cooling and temperatures have fallen into the 20s for most locales. Surface winds increase from the south through the day and will lead to highs very similar temperatures to yesterday in the low to mid 50s. A shortwave moves across the Plains Sunday, but dry conditions will prevail given a lack of deep moisture. This wave does lead to some downsloping of low- level winds and temperatures will warm into the 60s Sunday afternoon. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Monday as southwesterly winds and WAA bump highs near record values in the low to mid 70s. While winds are not forecast to be overly strong, southwest winds of 10-15 MPH coupled with relative humidity values of 25-35 percent Monday afternoon could lead to elevated fire danger.

Mid-level flow becomes zonal by Tuesday with a cold front progged to move through the area Tuesday morning. The forecast area remains between a northern and southern stream shortwave and guidance continues to favor areas farther south as having the highest chances of seeing some rain. Even so, there remains a 15-40% chance for some rain across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night, with best chances across east central Kansas. Additional waves moving through the flow lead to additional chances for precipitation Wednesday-Friday, but variability among guidance in the timing and track of these waves and their associated precipitation remains large. Temperatures will be cooler, but still above-normal, Tuesday through the remainder of the week, resulting in any precipitation falling mainly as rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 435 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Winds increase from the south this morning, reaching around 10kts with occasional gusts near 20kts during the afternoon. Surface winds relax after sunset as 1500-2000ft winds strengthen to 30-40kts. This creates marginal LLWS conditions between 03-09z before the LLJ moves southeast of terminals.

CLIMATE

Issued at 421 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Updated at 132 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Record High Temperatures for February 9

Forecast High Record (Year) Topeka 72 72 (1932) Concordia 72 70 (1976, 1996)

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.