textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Hard freeze Friday and Saturday mornings, with Saturday the colder of the two as lows fall into the low to mid 20s.

- Dry and cool through the weekend, then warming to near 60 by the middle of next week.

- Next chance for rain late next week, though confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A deep upper trough stretches from the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay, keeping Kansas in northwest flow aloft beneath a large ridge over western Canada. The secondary front pushed through Wednesday evening, and CAA is under way as a surface ridge builds south from the northern Plains behind it. Wednesday reached the upper 60s, the third straight day a few degrees above the NBM, as deep mixing behind the morning front pulled dewpoints into the mid 30s and drove gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Through sunrise, most areas stay just mixed enough with northerly winds above the surface to hold lows in the mid to upper 30s, but sheltered valleys are already decoupling. Morning lows were adjusted down slightly to account for cold air drainage into those low lying areas, where patchy frost is possible by sunrise.

A low stratus deck over South Dakota had been a concern for this morning, and while most guidance keeps the main deck north, RAP and HRRR soundings along Highway 36 show a saturated layer up to around 5000 ft, and a few REFS members bring brief low ceilings into far northern Kansas around sunrise. Any clouds there should scatter by mid morning, leaving mostly sunny skies today with north winds gusting near 20 mph and highs from the upper 40s in north central Kansas to the mid 50s near Emporia.

The surface ridge becomes well established across the area tonight, and with clear skies and nearly calm winds, the night sets up as an efficient radiational cooling night under the coldest airmass of the week. Lows in the mid to upper 20s bring a hard freeze Friday morning, with highs only in the upper 40s Friday afternoon. The ridge axis drifts east Friday night, keeping eastern Kansas calm and clear for an even colder Saturday morning with lows in the low to mid 20s, coldest in sheltered valleys once again. Farther west, light south winds and high clouds return to north central Kansas on the back side of the ridge, which should hold lows a few degrees warmer there.

Over the last several runs, guidance has cut the closed low off farther south while strengthening the surface high to our north and east, which keeps its moisture well south of the area this weekend. NBM rain chances have dropped sharply over the last two nights as a result, and all of the ensemble clusters now hold the ridge over the Plains into early next week. Only a member or two still clips south central Kansas Sunday, so the weekend stays dry. Strong high pressure holds early next week before ridging builds over the Plains, warming highs into the mid 50s Tuesday and near 60 by Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for rain arrives late in the week as another trough approaches, but ensemble amounts remain small and confidence is low at that range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 458 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Carrying VFR conditions through the period. North winds increase this morning as mixing deepens, gusting near 20 kt through the afternoon before diminishing around sunset. Satellite shows the stratus to the north struggling to advance, with patches developing and then eroding against the dry low levels. Where clouds have formed, bases are near 4000 ft, so any stratocumulus that develops as the mixed layer deepens by mid to late this morning should stay VFR. Clouds scatter out late this afternoon into the evening as diurnal heating ends, leaving mostly clear skies and light winds tonight.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.