textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Hard freeze early this morning and again Saturday morning, with Saturday morning expected to be the colder of the two as lows drop into the low to mid 20s across the area.

- Cool and dry conditions persist through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Early morning surface analysis shows a cool, dry post-frontal air mass firmly entrenched across Kansas. A surface ridge axis continues to build southward into the Central Plains early this morning, supporting light north to northeast winds around 5 mph or less and efficient radiational cooling.

Despite abundant sunshine today, continued cool low-level air and weak mixing beneath the surface ridge will hold afternoon highs in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees, roughly 5 to 10 degrees below mid-November climatological normals. Winds remain light from the north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph. As the surface high settles directly over eastern Kansas tonight into Saturday morning, light winds and a dry boundary layer will set up another night of strong radiational cooling. Saturday morning looks to be the colder of the two mornings, with widespread lows in the low to mid 20s, particularly in sheltered valleys and along the Kansas and Republican River basins.

Over the weekend, an elongated western upper-level trough splits, carving out a closed mid-level low that tracks eastward across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by early Sunday. Earlier model spread regarding the northern extent of precipitation has trended consistently southward, keeping deeper Gulf moisture and forcing well south of the Kansas-Oklahoma border. Meanwhile, low-level ridging anchored east of the forecast area maintains dry easterly to southeasterly low-level flow across the area. Expect an increase in mid and high-level clouds Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, but dry weather is expected to prevail through Sunday. Daytime highs remain cool in the upper 40s to low 50s through the weekend.

Looking into early and mid-next week, upper-level heights rise behind the departing southern trough as surface high pressure shifts east toward the Mississippi Valley. Developing southerly return flow will promote steady warm air advection across Kansas, lifting afternoon highs through the 50s early next week and back to near 60 degrees by Wednesday, alongside milder overnight lows above freezing.

By late next week, medium-range guidance signals the next upper- level trough approaching from the western CONUS. While this system introduces the next potential window for rainfall across northeast and east-central Kansas, significant uncertainty remains regarding trough amplitude, progression speed, and the quality of boundary- layer moisture return ahead of the system. Accordingly, precipitation chances remain low and broad-brushed at this range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 451 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with clear sky and light northerly wind becoming easterly by 00z at all sites.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.