textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger this afternoon and Monday afternoon for areas in north-central Kansas.

- Storm chances return Wednesday PM into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Clear skies and light winds are expected to continue as surface ridging has slid south into the southern Plains. Under ample insolation and diurnal mixing, afternoon temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 70s by 3-5 PM this afternoon. Mostly clear skies and light winds overnight should again promote a chilly Monday morning, but with southerly low level flow returning by sunrise Monday morning only expecting temperatures to settle into the low 40s. Slightly gustier conditions will set up Monday and Tuesday promoting warm afternoon temperatures - in the upper 70s and low 80s - with dry conditions.

Pattern change builds into the central Plains by Wednesday and Thursday as a large upper low begins to eject off the Rockies. 60 degree dewpoints are expected to return to the area by Wednesday and Thursday as the Gulf moisture stream becomes open. While some weak waves ahead of the main upper low may proceed the main trough, forecast sounds keep around a stout EML for much of Wednesday afternoon and evening that will likely limit any widespread storm develop in eastern Kansas. Some elevated showers and storms may be possible across north-central KS as isentropic ascent and LLJ dynamics increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The best chance for storms at this point in time appears to be with the main trough passage Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. Long range ensemble guidance depicts the trough axis to lift into the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon with a moisture axis advecting up into Oklahoma and Kansas. The trough passage should push a cold front across the area Thursday afternoon/evening that would likely become the focal point for storms with chances for some to be strong to severe. That said, confidence still is low in exact timing of the upper low. The timing will play a large role in if the central Plains sees storms, or if the threat shifts east of the region. Behind the upper low passage, a cooler but active pattern seems to build into the western and central CONUS keeping PoPs in the extended forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR TAFs will persist with the forecast remaining wind driven. Winds may reach upwards of 10-12 mph this afternoon, prevailing mainly out of the southwest before becoming calm overnight. Winds veer towards the east overnight and then become breezy out of the south/southwest by the late morning Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Elevated fire danger will be expected across north-central Kansas this afternoon and again Monday afternoon for very low RH values and breezy conditions. Fuel loading and lack of green-up across north- central Kansas still is yielding dangerous burning conditions so outdoor burning is no advised this afternoon or Monday afternoon in mentioned areas.

While winds this afternoon will be on the lighter side, RH values are expected to drop into the 13-18% range. Ample and dry fuels could increase the risk for erratic fire behavior.

By Monday afternoon, steep low-level lapse rates will develop as diurnal mixing deepens across Kansas. Mixing and diurnal heating should push temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s as RH values drop back into the 15-20% range. Pressure gradients are expected to be tighter Monday afternoon, promoting sustained winds of 10-15 mph and occasional gusts to 25 mph - especially across central and north- central Kansas. These parameters paired with dry and ample fuels across north-central Kansas will lead to erratic fire behavior. May need a fire headline for the afternoon hours Monday, but held off due to lack of confidence in overall wind speeds. Will continue to monitor the need for headlines in the next 12-18 hours.

Gulf moisture begins to move into the central Plains by Tuesday and should help to increase afternoon RH values into the 30-40% range.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.