textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of showers and storms today and Thursday. Severe weather is not expected, although storms could produce locally heavy rainfall.

- Highest chances (60-80%) for storms come Thursday evening into Friday morning. These storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts appearing to be the main hazard.

- Relatively cooler and drier air builds in Friday and holds through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A perturbation rounding the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge and isentropic ascent is expected to spark an area of showers and storms across the area before sunrise this morning. Modest shear will preclude any organized severe convection, but PWATs of 2-2.25" support the potential for some precipitation-loaded downdrafts and high rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour. Some training appears possible, but any flooding should be localized.

Modest lift through the day today keeps a low chance for scattered showers and isolated storms through the daytime hours. Temperatures should closely mirror what was experienced yesterday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. High humidity persists, creating heat index values of 95-103 degrees this afternoon. A similar set-up appears possible tonight into Thursday morning with isentropic ascent leading to showers and storms. Mesoscale features will dictate whether storms linger through the day Thursday, leading to uncertainty in how hot temperatures will reach. Hottest temperatures will be towards central Kansas where heat index values may reach 105- 108 degrees. A more potent shortwave ejects across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday, shunting a cold front through the forecast area. The environment will be more favorable for strong to severe storms with this later round given stronger shear and forcing. Early indications are for a line of storms to form to the northwest and move into the forecast area, although the timing and intensity of this line is uncertain at this range.

Cooler and drier air spills in Friday through the weekend as surface high pressure overspreads the area. Highs will be near or slightly- below normal in the 80s to near 90 degrees. Southerly low-level winds and expansion of the ridge back over the Plains will lead to a slight warm-up for the new work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Uncertainties remain in regards to timing and coverage of showers/storms this morning. Confidence has increased in at least some precipitation impacting KMHK with lower confidence at KTOP/KFOE. There is a low potential for fog or low cigs this morning as well, especially if cloud cover is less than anticipated. Precipitation may linger through much of the daytime hours, but confidence in impacts to terminals is low.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.