textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Low, conditional threat for a few severe storms late this evening and again late Friday evening for portions of north central and far northeast Kansas. If storms develop, large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards.

- Active upper pattern persists into next week, signaling occasional storm chances while broken cloud cover keeps temperatures seasonable in the upper 80s for highs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Upper ridge remains anchored over the Desert Southwest this afternoon while weak embedded perturbations along the northeast flank of the ridge traverse the central plains from tonight through the weekend. Probabilities are low for storms to impact portions of northern Kansas late tonight as overall mid level forcing is displaced to the north and east while support from the LLJ is focused towards western KS/NE. Latest cams continue to signal isolated storms developing along the theta e gradient after midnight through sunrise Saturday. Will maintain slight pops from north central to central Kansas overnight due to the subtle signal that could trigger a few storms. Further south and east where skies should remain clear under light winds, patchy fog may redevelop in low lying areas close to sunrise. Residual cloud cover from any isolated showers clears out by the afternoon, leading to decent confidence in highs Friday reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.

An incoming, more organized vort max and sagging cold front are progged to develop another cluster of storms Friday evening. High elevated CAPE and decent bulk shear are highest from southern NE to far northern Kansas where damaging wind gusts and hail are most likely from these storms. Storms should gradually weaken southward by sunrise Saturday. A similar pattern emerges throughout the weekend in terms of occasional convection potentially cooling high temperatures, especially Sunday when a somewhat stronger shortwave trough arrives in the region. Earlier timing during the afternoon Sunday increases cloud cover and shower coverage, cooling highs down into the low 80s. Aided by the LLJ overnight, pops on Sunday night are higher for a cluster of storms to slide through the region.

Upper pattern is largely unchanged next week as the active northwest flow pattern carries several waves across the region, most notably on Tuesday evening and Thursday. Fortunately, temps stay close to normal (upper 80s) on the north side of the front through mid week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR at terminals as light winds shift to the northeast below 10 kts during the afternoon before veering overnight to the southeast. Will need to monitor fog potential in the river valley at KTOP before sunrise. Forecast soundings are showing shallow moisture developing aft 09Z, but may see some mid-high clouds just to the west.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.