textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Hot and dry weather continue. Highs remain around 100 degrees through at least the weekend.

-A bit of relief looks possible by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The mid-level pattern hasn't changed much with H5 analysis showing a large ridge positioned over the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS, and southwest flow from the Four Corners region through the Upper Midwest. Water vapor also shows the remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard over eastern TX. Sfc analysis reveals a similar set up with high pressure east, a trough of low pressure in far western KS and breezy southwest winds in between. This hot pattern will likely have us exceed triple digits for the fourth day in a row this afternoon. These highs keep us a lot closer to daily records than average highs which are currently in the mid 80s and slowly dropping with time. Thus, heat remains the main concern, especially considering the prolonged nature of this heat wave and the fact that overnight temperatures don't offer much relief. As a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect each afternoon through Friday and will likely get extended through the weekend.

Late tonight and early Thursday morning, there is a low probability for isolated showers in north-central KS where there may be some isentropic ascent. Have kept POPs less than 15 percent for now given the low confidence of any measurable precipitation, supported by weak forcing a lack of saturation in the column. Instead, heat will continue and be reinforced as the mid-level ridge builds westward over the central CONUS this weekend and holds firm into next week. A bit of relief may arrive during the middle of next week as long range models show the ridge flattening and a possible cold front moving through the area by late week. The EC is more set on this solution than the GFS currently, even bringing some decent QPF with the front. We will have to watch how models trend in the long range, but for now, confidence remains high in dry and very hot weather for at least the next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions through the period with a persistent forecast in place once again. Winds generally under 10kts during the early morning hours as the BL remains partially mixed. A weak nocturnal LLJ will be in place this morning but LLWS conditions appear to be marginal with turbulence being the primary impact due to a steady increase in wind speeds through FL020 and only slight directional change expected. After sunrise, expect deeper mixing again into mid-morning. Gusts into the low to mid 20kt range into this evening before relaxing again.

CLIMATE

Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 3 Topeka 77, set in 1939 77 Concordia 80, set in 1947 79

September 4 Topeka 78, set in 2014 76 Concordia 79, set in 1954 79

September 5 Topeka 76, set in 1983 77 Concordia 78, set in 1899 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011- KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035- KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058- KSZ059.