textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-The coolest weather arrives tonight through Saturday with lows falling into the 20s tonight and again Friday night.

-Rain stays south this weekend, keeping dry weather in place until at least the middle of next week.

-Increasing south winds also bring warmer weather back by midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

An amplified meridional mid-level pattern is in place across the CONUS today with a trough over the eastern half of the country, ridging over the Mountainous West and another deep trough axis approaching the west coast. For us, northwest flow continues aloft for now. At the surface, a large surface ridge centered over central Canada is building into area. The coolest air within this chilly pattern will be felt tonight through Saturday. Radiational cooling due to clear skies and nearly calm winds tonight should allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s by sunrise Friday. Temperatures will then struggle to reach 50 degrees tomorrow afternoon before tanking into the mid 20s tomorrow night. These next two nights will be the first hard freeze for a majority of the area, which is anomalously late compared to average.

The surface pattern won't change much on Saturday with the ridge holding strong just northeast of the area. Aloft, however, the western trough will evolve into a closed low over the TX panhandle by early Sunday with a surface low also forming well south of the area. Lift associated with that system within an area of better moisture availability will lead to rain development in TX/OK and possibly far southern KS. Confidence remains high that northeast KS will stay dry on the north side of that system. Temperatures moderate slightly through the weekend, but will possibly be held back slightly due to cloud cover in central KS.

Early next week, the center of the large surface ridge will move eastward over the far eastern US, but it will still have some grip on the area. The approach of another western trough will induce cyclogenesis to our west, increasing the pressure gradient. Stronger southwest flow should boost temperatures back to near 60 degrees by the middle of the week. That is also when rain chances start to creep back into the forecast, although probabilities remain around 20 to 30 percent with low confidence at this range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR expected with just a scattered deck of CU developing for a brief period this afternoon. Otherwise, breezy north winds will weaken mid afternoon and skies will clear. Winds become calm overnight. Fog development looks unlikely late tonight and early Friday with drier air continuing to filter into the area.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.