textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog this morning, locally dense, mainly south of Interstate 70 where fewer high clouds have been in place overnight, and in the river valleys.

- Dry and above average through Wednesday with highs in the 60s to near 70.

- Cooler Thursday and Friday with the extent of the cooldown still somewhat uncertain and a warming trend into next weekend possible again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The area sits under weak flow aloft between a closed low over New England, a shortwave dropping out of Manitoba, and a cutoff low near the New Mexico and Mexico border. Surface high pressure is centered over Kansas and Oklahoma, with cirrus streaming across the northern counties ahead of a weak surface trough over Nebraska.

Fog remains the primary question this morning. Temp-dewpoint spreads were already down to a degree or two from Manhattan and Topeka south at 1 AM, running colder than guidance with hours of cooling left, so crossover is likely reached before sunrise across the southern half of the area. The cirrus over the north is the fly in the ointment there, costing a few degrees of cooling. Forecast soundings keep the saturation shallow with winds just off the surface, which favors patchy fog over widespread, and ensemble visibility guidance agrees with only one model painting dense fog everywhere. The forecast carries patchy fog with locally dense pockets through mid morning. If visibilities drop below a mile early, coverage needs a second look, so will continue to watch trends into early this morning.

A weak front/surface trough slides through late morning with winds turning northwest, and deeper mixing under full sunshine pushes highs into the mid to upper 60s. Broad low amplitude ridging holds Monday and Tuesday, and with 850 mb temperatures and heights in place, highs near 70 continue both days.

The main front arrives Wednesday night as a Pacific trough digs toward the central Plains, putting the area in northwest flow with gusty north winds Thursday and highs falling into the 50s. How far west the trough axis digs decides how cool temperatures become. The GFS still keeps it farther southwest with the colder airmass reaching the area, while the ECMWF and Canadian hold the deeper trough with more direct CAA displaced northeast of the area. The ensemble clusters split nearly evenly between those outcomes, so the forecast holds around the 50th percentile with upper 50s Thursday and Friday. Beyond that, the clusters favor higher amplitude ridging building over the Plains into next weekend and possibly beyond, so temperatures rebound into the 60s with dry weather holding through the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1007 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Some patchy fog may develop at KMHK briefly early this morning. Wind shifts out of the northwest by late morning as a weak front swings through.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.