textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- More scattered, hit-or-miss storms today. Some storms this morning followed by another round late afternoon into the evening. Confidence in details is quite low, but a few storms could again be severe, with damaging winds the main hazard.

- Portions of east-central KS may still see heat indices 100-104 this afternoon, though potential for lingering clouds/showers limits confidence.

- Near average temperatures Sunday through Tuesday followed by a slight warming trend for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A quasi-zonal pattern remains in place across much of the CONUS this morning. Within the modest westerly flow aloft, one weak perturbation is moving across the Central Plains. This was responsible for the storms that moved across the area over the past 12 hours, which have now laid an east-west outflow boundary across much of the state. Radar is also showing additional boundaries (and/or gravity wave structures) across northeast KS. Farther west, renewed convection has become widespread across western KS and eastern CO. How this convection evolves over the morning as it spreads eastward will play a big role in afternoon temperatures and evening thunderstorm chances. Given multiple surface boundaries and the overall high amount of convection, confidence in how this will play out is very low. Can almost guarantee that CAM guidance will not very useful.

Two opposing scenarios seem plausible, tied to the evolution of morning convection. 1 - If convection remains persistent as it moves towards central and eastern KS this morning, this would reinforce the outflow boundary that is located just south of the forecast area. This would keep afternoon temperatures here mostly in the 80s, and keep the best chance of PM storm redevelopment southwest of us. 2 - Alternatively, if morning convection to our west tapers off quicker than expected, the outflow boundary to our south would largely wash out. With less cloud cover, deeper mixing would help temperatures warm into the 90s, and heat indices around or above 100 would remain possible across east-central KS. As the warm sector stays farther north, redevelopment of storms during the evening would be more likely farther north across the forecast area. Strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg ML CAPE) and decent effective shear (25- 35 kts) would then support a few severe storms. Similar to yesterday, a mix of multi-cells and transient supercells could occur, with damaging winds and briefly large hail the main hazards. Of these two scenarios, the former scenario seems to be the more likely, but both scenarios (or something in between) seem plausible. So will need to continually reassess the mesoscale environment throughout the day today.

Sunday into Tuesday, we'll see a quieter and slightly cooler few days. Today's mid-level perturbation will slightly amplify to our east, turning flow over the Plains more northerly. Stronger ridging to our west means there won't be any truly cool air around. But we'll still see near normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and morning lows in the upper 60s. Can't rule out a few lingering showers or weak storms Sunday, but most of the first half of the week will stay dry. We return to a more zonal pattern for the second half of the week, with more southerly low- level flow allowing for a slight warming trend. Precipitation chances should increase as well during this time- frame, as multiple quick- moving and low- amplitude shortwaves pass through the flow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Low confidence forecast as models continue to struggle in this weakly forced environment. Overall think this morning's convection and meso-high should limit precip chances this afternoon with the bulk of guidance showing redevelopment this evening south of the terminals along an 850MB boundary. This fits with the current analysis, but then there are the storms over central KS. So the overall prob looks to be around 30 percent through 02Z and since predictability of storms is low, will keep a dry forecast and amend as needed. VFR conditions should prevail outside of any convection that may develop.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ026-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.