textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms Tuesday evening and overnight will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall, particularly along and south of I-70.

- Another round of potentially heavy rain remains likely (70%) Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Much cooler and drier for Friday and the weekend. By far the coldest airmass yet this autumn.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

We remain in a rather amplified pattern this afternoon across the CONUS. Broad and strong ridging is still in place over much of the eastern CONUS, centered around the Mississippi River. Farther west, our main feature to watch is a deep upper low currently centered over the Great Basin. Surface observations show a weak low over western Iowa with a trailing cold front stretching back into south- central Nebraska. Warm southwesterly flow ahead of this front, coupled with deep mixing, is leading to one more very warm day across the entire area. More likely than not that both TOP and CNK will break their daily high (and warm low) temperature records today as temperatures climb into the low/mid 90s.

Tonight into tomorrow, a lead shortwave moving onto the Plains will help shunt the cold front a bit farther south into our area. Have trended this front a bit farther south in line with higher- resolution guidance, as this seems to be a classic slow bias in lower resolution guidance with southward moving fronts like this. Still some uncertainty with where exactly the front will stall out Tuesday afternoon, but it looks to be somewhere plus/minus 30 miles from a McPherson to Council Grove to Topeka line. South of the front it will be one last very warm day with highs again approaching 90. North of the front it will be notably cooler, with highs in the 70s to low 80s. With good heating south of the boundary and convergence along it, confidence is fairly high in thunderstorms developing during the evening (likely beginning 5-7 PM). A few strong to severe storms may occur with more elevated convection north of the boundary, but the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be along and south of wherever the boundary ends up. Effective shear of 40+ kts and 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE suggests that initial supercells with a hail/wind risk will be possible. However with a boundary-parallel shear vector, expecting rather quick upscale growth, transitioning things more to a wind and heavy rain threat (given near record PWAT for mid- October). An additional round of showers and storms should develop overnight into the morning hours, so it's not out of the question that a few spots pick up a quick 2-4" of rain. However most places will see lesser amounts.

The storms Tuesday night will push the front through the majority of the area. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday look much cooler behind the front, particularly if clouds and showers hang around. There are signs of a brief lull in precipitation Wednesday PM, but rain coverage looks to increase again late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will occur as the upper low lifts northeast onto the Central Plains, becoming weaker and more sheared out as it interacts with a trough dropping southeast out of Canada. Another few inches of rain will be possible with this round, particularly across east- central KS closest to the boundary to our south. So will have to watch for some minor flooding concerns, particularly if the heaviest rain Thursday overlaps with the heaviest rain from Tuesday night.

Much drier air will move in Thursday night behind a secondary cold front, as the now combined upper low and Canadian shortwave move off to the east. Strong high pressure will arrive in its wake. This will make for a much more October-like weekend. Morning lows drop into the 40s, likely even 30s Saturday morning as the high pressure becomes situated overhead. And even with plenty of sun, high temperatures should stay in the upper 50s to low 60s Friday and Saturday before climbing closer to 70 Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Frontal position, MVFR CIGS and precip timing will all be a challenge with this forecast. Most guidance has the boundary stalling near the KS river valley with forecast soundings hinting at some scattered stratus along the front. The NAM is most aggressive with the low clouds and looks to be to cool with the boundary layer and over saturating it. But the RAP and GFS also hint at some scattered clouds near 2 KFT by 12Z. Will keep a VFR forecast for now and also hint at the low clouds with a SCT group. TS are likely to impact the terminals by 00Z. Will use the CAMs as a first guess in timing storms.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Record High Temperature Information:

October 12 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 93, set in 1899 and 2024 92 Concordia 93, set in 1899 94

October 13 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 91, set in 1975 89 Concordia 90, set in 1975 78

Record Warmest Minimum Temperature Information: Note, the lowest temperatures for each date will likely occur around midnight CST.

October 12 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 68, set in 1890 and 1899 71 Concordia 67, set in 1975 68

October 13 Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 69, set in 1962, 68, 75 67 Concordia 70, set in 1920 58

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.