textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and warming temperatures through the week with highs approaching record values Friday and Saturday

- Elevated fire danger each day through Sunday, with the worst conditions coming this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Northwest flow aloft persists across the central CONUS early this morning with the mid-level ridge parked across the southwest US. Waves of energy moving through the northwest flow have led to continued mid and high clouds streaming overhead. Elevated surface winds and cloud cover have kept temperatures warmer than the past few mornings with readings generally in the 30s and 40s. The warm-up commences today with downslope flow boosting highs into the 70s this afternoon. Further warming occurs through the end of the week with record heat looking more and more likely for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures eclipsing 90 degrees is within reach Friday afternoon across north central Kansas and could be more widespread on Saturday! These temperatures along with the dry airmass will create elevated fire danger each day, although winds are forecast to be relatively light (less than 20 MPH). A strong cold front will bring breezier winds Saturday night into Sunday, although the timing of the front remains varied amongst guidance. The 00z ENS and deterministic ECMWF push the boundary through Saturday night while the GEFS/GFS are slower and move the front through Sunday morning. Recent trends favor a faster progression of the front which has reduced the high-end of the spread in the NBM, but there remains a 20 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles for highs on Sunday. Confidence is high in cooler temperatures back near-normal values by Monday before warming back up into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 445 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Light west-northwesterly winds through the day become south-southwesterly after sunset this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Warming temperatures and a dry airmass will lead to elevated fire danger each afternoon from today through Sunday. A few hours of very high fire danger is expected this afternoon across the Flint Hills and north central Kansas as relative humidity values fall to 20-25%. Slightly warmer and drier conditions will lead to more widespread very high fire danger on Thursday. Thankfully, winds are forecast to be light both days, generally below 10 MPH.

Fire weather concerns increase Friday and Saturday as temperatures climb to near-record levels with relative humidity values falling into the 15-30% range. Winds still do not appear overly strong Friday, but could increase to 10-15 MPH with gusts of 20 MPH from the southwest on Saturday. A cold front brings stronger winds as it moves through for Sunday, though variability remains high in timing of this front and, subsequently, high temperatures and afternoon humidity values.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Record High Temperature for March 20

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1953) 86 Concordia 83 (1916, 1934, 2011) 86

Record High Temperature for March 21

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 91 (1907, 1916) 88 Concordia 97 (1907) 89

Record Highest Minimum Temperature for March 20

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 56 (2012) 48 Concordia 50 (1894, 1935, 2011) 47

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.