textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Near average temperatures hold for most of this week, warming slightly into the mid to upper 90s by this weekend.
- Minimal chances for rain over the next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
An expansive upper ridge holds strong over much of the central CONUS, extending from the Four Corners region across the Rockies and Plains to the Upper Midwest. This pattern will result in quiet conditions for the next several days with little change in our weather from day to day. The highest geopotential heights are to our north with our area being on the southeast periphery of the ridge and within easterly flow, which helps prevent us from getting as warm as we otherwise would. We are on track to see temperatures reach the upper 80s with perhaps a few low 90s today, and similar conditions can be expected Tuesday. By mid-week, a retrograding upper low from the Gulf States back to the Southern Plains shifts our low-level flow to the southeast and then south, helping our temperatures to increase a degree or two each day with highs generally in the low 90s by Thursday. Still can't entirely rule out a few showers in far southeastern portions of the CWA Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, but chances are favored more to the south and east of the area. The upper ridge reestablishes itself over the western CONUS late this week with southerly winds continuing in our area, helping temperatures to rise a bit more into the mid to upper 90s by the weekend. Fortunately, humidity levels look low enough at this time to keep heat indices in check. The LREF has a 10% or lower chance of reaching heat advisory criteria.
Long-range guidance indicates a troughing pattern developing over the Great Lakes states into the Northeast by early next week, which may provide some opportunity for modified fronts to work through the area. Precip chances remain low, although cluster analysis shows some variation in how amplified the pattern is, and temperature ranges widen somewhat early next week, indicative of increasing uncertainty pending the timing or strength of any nearby systems.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
VFR conditions are forecast with diurnal cu this afternoon and light easterly wind through the period.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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