textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Relatively cool and unsettled weather is expected to continue through the workweek.

- The better chances for showers and storms are expected Tuesday and Thursday. Some of these storms could be severe.

- Warmer weather with mainly dry conditions is forecast this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low north of MT with another closed low over the Gulf of Alaska with the mean westerlies across the northern tier of the country. Surface obs placed the center of a high pressure system over the Upper Midwest and nosing into the central plains. This combined with the cloud cover have kept temps unseasonably cool into the early afternoon.

Overall 00Z ensembles showed the pattern of the mean westerlies to the north of the forecast area and a broad flat ridge south persisting through the workweek. This is supported by the 12Z operational solutions and means the forecast area will remain subject to low amplitude perturbations within the flow and surface boundaries in the area. Cluster analysis of the 00Z ensembles showed pretty consistent solutions with not much difference from one cluster to another. This results in pretty reasonable spreads in the blended solutions and don't see a big reason to deviate from the NBM. So the forecast is for rather temperate weather with occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms through Friday. There appears to be two signals for organized precip chances on Tuesday and again on Thursday. The pattern is expected to amplify this weekend with troughing across the west and ridging along the Rockies setting up southwest flow over the central plains. This should allow for better warm air advection and more typical summer time temps in the 90s.

In the short term, surface ridging is expected to keep quiet weather across the area through tonight with just some mid and high clouds. For Tuesday and Tuesday night, the model consensus is for the theta- e ridge and instability axis to set up across western and south central KS mainly to the southwest of the forecast area. The idea from the previous forecast was that convection developing off the high plains could potentially impact the area Tuesday evening and overnight. But the 12Z HRRR came in showing a bowing line segment diving through central KS Tuesday afternoon. There is also some signal for this potential in the 12Z NAM and 15Z RAP. With models showing some theta-e advection through central KS into northeast KS, it is not hard to see the potential for elevated storms impacting the forecast area even with the better instability southwest of the forecast area, especially if an MCS across NEB can get a cold pool moving southeast. Have bumped up POPs to around 40 percent through the afternoon because of this, but confidence is only marginal since the HRRR has been the only CAM to bring convection into the area this early and the 18Z HRRR has backed away from this idea. Would anticipate the main hazard being damaging winds if a bowing segment develops.

For Thursday the ECMWF and GFS both bring a better defined, albeit low amplitude shortwave across northern KS with a moist and conditionally unstable airmass. There is also signs of a cold front providing some lift for convection. So the likely POPs from the NBM look reasonable and have not made any chances forecast initialization.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

CIGs should gradually improve to VFR as the boundary layer slowly deepens and this is supported by the RAP forecast soundings. VFR conditions are forecast to persist overnight with relatively dry air within a weak surface ridge. Increasing mid and high clouds are expected to mitigate any fog potential and MOS guidance along with the latest CAMs also fail to develop any restricted VSBY.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.