textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy Friday.

- Thunderstorms become likely in eastern areas Friday afternoon and evening. Some may be severe with mainly a hail and wind concern.

- Mainly dry with temperatures close to normal for the bulk of the weekend into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Northwest winds bringing in cooler temperatures during the day today behind the upper trough and surface low over southwestern Iowa early this afternoon. Winds return to the southeast overnight tonight ahead of the next upper trough over the Rockies today. A capping inversion over increasing low-level moisture should bring stratus into place around sunrise and could even result in some drizzle or weak showers Friday morning, but gusty south winds should still bring highs into the 70s for most. The stratus does give some uncertainty on when the cold front will produce thunderstorms, but most guidance continues to suggest thunderstorm development over eastern Kansas in the early to mid afternoon, quickly shifting to the east by 04Z. Shear and instability parameters remain strong enough to support at least isolated severe storms before the storms grow upscale in coverage with time. Agree with SPC on reducing hatched hail and wind given the above though a brief tornado still can't be ruled out. Storms should be rather short-lived and keep precipitation totals of less than an inch despite their high probability of occurrence. NBM chances for an inch are 20-40% where the precip chances are highest.

Northwest upper flow dominates the next several days with near- breezy northwest winds Saturday keeping temps in the 50s. Temperatures moderate Sunday but fall back again for Monday as a modest upper wave moves through. This wave could bring some very light precipitation Monday into Monday night with cool enough temps to support some light snow mention, though NBM chances for anything measurable are less than 20 percent. Low temperatures both Saturday night and Monday night look to approach or perhaps reach freezing so those with early tender vegetation should take note. A longer wavelength trough pushes a cold front south into the region around the middle of next week for greater precipitation chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 553 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through 06z with the timing of arrival of low clouds the main challenge. Moisture will return quickly after 6z as winds in the lowest 1KM turn ESE and the sfc warm front begins to surge north bringing dewpoints in the 50s to around 60 by 12z to the TAF sites. This will act to support stratus development north into the area along with some MVFR VIS conditions given how strong the moisture advection is on timing of arrival of moisture before sunrise.

Strong gusty winds will veer with time toward 18z with scattered tsra expected to develop along the cold front that appears to move through TOP/FOE around 21z when winds will switch from south to northwest.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.