textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds gradually subside this evening and overnight.

- Southerly winds gusting at 30-35 MPH and low relative humidity will create elevated fire weather conditions again on Friday.

- Above-normal temperatures continue Friday through the weekend with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.

- Trending even warmer and staying dry next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Early this afternoon water vapor satellite showed an amplifying upper trough extending from western MN, southward along the KS/MO border, southward into northeast TX.

The 18Z, surface map showed a cold front extending from northeast WI, southwest across central MO, then southwest into south central TX.

Areas that are clear with insolation have been mixing as deep as 6 to 7 Kft, allowing 60 KT wind parcels to reach the boundary layer. Wind gusts this afternoon have been in the 60 to 70 MPH range from north central KS, southeast across the southern counties of Morris and Lyon. Northeast and east central KS have seen more stratus CU develop limiting the the deeper mixing. Most wind gusts across northeast and east central KS have been in the 45 to 55 MPH range.

The strong northwest winds will continue through 4 PM, then begin to diminish as we lose surface heating and stronger CAA colder temperatures into the 40s and and 30s. After sunset and through the evening hours, the winds will decrease below 20 MPH from the northwest.

Tonight: the winds will diminish through the night and overnight low will drop into the lower to mid 20s.

Friday through Sunday: The deep upper trough across the Midwest and eastern Plains will lift northeast into New England. The Northwest flow will become more zonal. A broad area of surface high pressure will build southward across the central Plains into north TX by Sunday. High temperatures will reach the mid 40s to lower 50s, which is slightly above seasonal norms.

Monday through Christmas Day (Thursday):

A broad upper ridge will amplify across the southern and central Plains Tuesday, then slowly shift east into the lower MS River Valley on Christmas Day. An amplify H5 trough will dig southeast onto the CA coast, Then dig southeast into the southwestern US. The southern stream H5 jet will lift northeast across CO into the central Plains. The resulting strong mid level flow over the central Rockies will cause a lee trough to deepen across the central and southern high Plains. The southerly winds and warm air advection will help temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 50s on Monday, with highs in the 60s Tuesday through Christmas Day. Some areas of east central KS may see highs hit the 70 degree mark on Christmas Eve and Christmas. Looks like a green and warm Christmas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

VFR conditions prevail with winds being the main aviation concern. Northwest winds gusting at 25-35kts will continue for the next few hours before gradually relaxing through the evening. Winds increase from the south and become gusty again Friday morning and remain so through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Weakening winds and recovering relative humidity will continue to improve fire weather conditions this evening. Winds become light by midnight, but increase from the south after sunrise Friday. Sustained winds around 20 MPH with gusts of 30-35 MPH are expected by late morning through the afternoon with relative humidity values falling into the 25-30 percent range. This will create another day of elevated fire weather conditions across the area and any burning should be postponed.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036- KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ011-KSZ012- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.