textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Another round of record setting warmth expected this afternoon & tomorrow (Thursday).

-Extreme fire danger conditions develop tomorrow, so a Fire Weather Watch has been issued.

-A few locations could (50-60% chance) see a rain shower or storm tomorrow evening/night.

-A brief late week cool down will be followed by another big warm up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

There is a lot to highlight again in the forecast discussion, with extreme early spring heat and fire danger conditions being the main concerns. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Thursday -- see details in the fire section below.

The large scale pattern over the CONUS features an expansive mid- level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and western Mexico. That combined with southerly low level flow is creating another very warm day for this time of the year. Temperatures will top out near 90 degrees this afternoon and will be even hotter tomorrow, likely setting record highs both days.

The mid-level ridge will start to flatten tomorrow as a surface low and associated cold front sweep through the central High Plains. Temperatures will soar ahead of the front tomorrow. The 25th to 25th percentile from NBM for highs range from 96 to 99 degrees for TOP, with the going forecast closer to the 25th percentile for now. If TOP exceeds 95 degrees, we will set another record for hottest temp in the entire month of March, just days after initially accomplishing that last weekend!

Hot and windy conditions combine to create extreme fire danger tomorrow, and as already mentioned, a watch has been issued. Winds will shift from the west-southwest to the north-northeast throughout the days as the front moves southward. Winds will be gusty ahead of the front and again behind it. A few showers and storms may also develop behind the boundary, mainly in east- central KS during the evening. Severe weather is not expected, and unfortunately, QPF is low with only around a quarter of an inch expected where rain occurs.

Much cooler temperatures are expected on Friday with highs only in the mid to upper 50s, which is actually more seasonably appropriate. Dew points will drop drastically, which will again create fire concerns with RH falling into the teens for most locations. Winds will again be breezy (not uncommon for March), so fire headlines will be strongly considered. Temperatures quickly warm through the weekend and into next week as another mid-level ridge builds over the southern CONUS, and fire danger concerns will continue.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. LLWS continues early this morning until better mixing ensues after sunrise. Winds veer to the west with the front moving in for the late afternoon and evening hours. Will add a wind increase and a VCSH late in the forecast period for the frontal passage.

FIRE WEATHER

Updated at 235 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Rain chances remain sparse and/or QPF remains low where POPs do exist tomorrow, as windy conditions and very low afternoon RH values continue for the next several days. Thus, concerns continue for with regards to fire weather and fire behavior. A few hours this afternoon will be near RFW criteria, mainly in north-central and central KS. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Thursday for much of the CWA. A cold front will complicate the fire fighting efforts with gusty west-southwest winds and hot conditions ahead of it, then a shift to gusty north winds behind it for the afternoon and evening (the front will move southward through the area throughout the day).

Winds stay elevated overnight into Friday. Even though temperatures are cooler for Friday and Saturday, RH recovery won't be dramatic during the overnight hours through Sunday, and daytime RH will drop into the teens to low 20s both Friday and Saturday, and to around 30 percent on Sunday. Such low RH tends to exacerbate fire behavior, even as winds diminish. Afternoon wind gusts Saturday and Sunday are forecast in the 20-25 mph range. Overall conditions over the weekend are far from ideal for prescribed burning.

CLIMATE

Updated at 245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2026

Record High Temperature for March 25

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 91 (1907) 91 Concordia 92 (1907) 94

Record High Temperature for March 26

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1910, 1991) 95 Concordia 86 (1907) 87

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ054.