textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Windy, hot and humid conditions return today.

-Strong storms form near I-35 this afternoon as a cold front advances southward.

-More wet weather returns this weekend, with a risk for a few severe storms and flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today, strong southerly flow boosts the heat and humidity ahead of a cold front that could bring strong storms to east-central KS. This morning, a trough of low pressure from the Upper Midwest into northern KS will continue eastward as an H5 shortwave digs across MN/WI. A tightening pressure gradient and strong LLJ will allow for gusty sfc winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusts of 40 to 45 mph has prompted the need for a Wind Advisory across eastern KS this morning, continuing into the afternoon for locations along and southeast of I-35. Once the front arrives, winds will veer to the northwest and weaken. Strong southerly flow will advect 70+ dew points back into eastern KS. The combined moisture and warm temps in the mid 90s this afternoon will correlate to triple digit heat index values mainly along and southeast of the KS Turnpike. In addition to wind and heat, storms will develop along today's cold front around 21/22Z near I-35. The more robust convection will likely be east of here, but storms that form in east-central KS will do so in an environment with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 45-50 kts of deep layer shear. Forecast soundings from HRRR and RAP show an inverted V profile and DCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary threats, with a more limited tornado risk due to lower values of SRH given an expected low level veered wind profile. Storms should quickly exit the CWA, only impacting a few counties.

On Thursday, scattered showers could develop near I-70 by midday where there is some mid level lift and H7 frontogenesis. Showers and perhaps some isolated storms will shift southward into the afternoon. Otherwise, it will be much cooler behind today's cold front with dew points in the 50s and highs in the low 80s. High pressure keeps conditions dry on Friday as temperatures warm to near normal in the mid 80s.

Wet weather looks to return this weekend as low pressure moves off the Front Range and into the Central Plains. Theta-e advection will occur in the warm sector of the system across eastern KS on Saturday, providing another warm and moist environment for thunderstorms. Long range models show some timing and placement differences but the LREF and NBM have the highest probabilities for precipitation occurring Saturday afternoon and night. There will be potential for severe weather and flooding with storms that form. NBM QPF has a nearly 50% chance for greater than 1.0 inch of rainfall Sat/Sat night and a 35% chance for greater than 2.0 inch of rain at KTOP.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Gusty southwesterly wind will shift out of the north as a cold front swings through this afternoon. Wind speeds will diminish through the day, falling to around 5 knots this evening.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.