textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry today before rain and storm chances return late this afternoon and evening (30-50%).

- Isolated to scattered precipitation chances linger Friday morning before widespread rain/storm chances returning by the afternoon through Saturday morning (50-80%).

- A brief lull in precipitation chances builds in by Halloween evening. A large upper-level system brings rain and storm chances back to eastern Kansas by Monday and Tuesday (60-90%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Satellite and surface observations early this morning show a weak frontal boundary bisecting northeastern Kansas and is expected to move south a bit through the early morning hours today before stalling across eastern Kansas. Zooming out, a few notable features stand out on upper-level water vapor imagery that will act to drive our weather in eastern Kansas the next several days - one ejecting off the northern Mexican mountains into the southern Plains, and the other a strong PNW cyclone embedded in broad troughing over the western coast. Through the day today, the southern Plains disturbance will continue its march north towards Kansas and continue to reinforce southerly low-level moisture advection towards the stalled boundary in Kansas. Isentropic ascent will strengthen overtop of the stalled warm front by the late afternoon and evening hours helping to generate precipitation. Cannot rule out a strong to marginally severe storm near the surface boundary by late this afternoon given 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-35 knots of bulk shear. That said, storms should be elevated so the main hazards would be small hail and an isolated strong wind gust. Rain/storm chances will slowly shift north through the overnight hours as best lift associated with the nose of the LLJ slides into southern NE and southwestern IA.

A brief lull in rain chances should be realized for much of Friday morning and into the early afternoon hours before lift from the southern Plains disturbance moves into eastern Kansas by the later afternoon and evening. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms will persist until early Saturday morning before large-scale ascent begins to shift north and east followed quickly by widespread subsidence. This should bring an end to precipitation Saturday morning/early afternoon from west to east - good news for Trick or Treaters!

By Sunday, a compact ridge will over the central Plains will keep things quiet, but the large amplified trough that begins to eject off the southern Rockies later that evening will not keep things quiet for long. WAA ahead of the main trough axis should begin the rain/storm chances Sunday night into Monday morning with precipitation chances hanging around all day Monday into Tuesday. Given the strength of this system, there is some potential in a severe weather setup somewhere across the southern/central Plains Monday evening and possibly again Tuesday, but variability in model guidance at this time is still high keeping confidence low. The upper trough axis is progged to move east of the area Wednesday, ushering in more seasonable and drier conditions in for the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The main aviation hazard over the first half of the period will be MVFR stratus building in along a stalled frontal boundary. Highest confidence to see MVFR decks will be at KMHK with a sharp cutoff in the stratus deck expected near the KTOP and KFOE area. To account for the uncertainty, maintained VFR decks at KTOP and KFOE with a MVFR TEMPO group if lower decks are able to reach the terminals.

By the afternoon, CIGs should scatter out to VFR at all sites. Added mention of PROB30 groups in at all sites as showers and storms along the frontal boundary will be expected, mainly in the evening and early morning hours of Friday. Precipitation will likely shift north of the terminals towards the end of the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.