textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated shower or storm possible (10-20% chance) across east- central Kansas through sunset.

- Dry Tuesday with increasing shower/storm chances Wednesday night into Friday.

- Near to slightly above-normal temperatures hold through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Mid-level ridging is building back into the Central Plains this afternoon with a weak closed low slowly moving southeast along the Missouri-Arkansas stateline. A cumulus field has developed with slightly deeper CU across far eastern Kansas where higher moisture resides. Given an uncapped airmass, there is the potential (10-20% chance) for an isolated shower or storm to develop across east central Kansas through sunset. Winds remain light overnight and high boundary layer moisture will again set the stage for some fog development. Low-levels winds are progged to be marginally stronger and may keep fog more patchy in nature.

Benign conditions are expected Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Mid-level flow becomes more zonal on Wednesday with southerly surface winds bumping temperatures back into the 90s for most. A shortwave moving through the zonal flow will spark convection across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and push this activity east across Kansas Wednesday night. Shear is modest at around 20 kts, but instability remains in place and will aid in keeping convection going this far east. The severe potential is low, with the main risk coming as any line segment moves into north central Kansas from the west. PWATs of 1.6-1.9" could allow for heavier downpours, but the training and flooding potential appear low. Temperatures Thursday will depend on how long rain/clouds linger through the day. The GEFS is less rainy and more mixed, leading to highs in the mid to upper 90s while the ENS is cloudier and wetter with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

A stronger shortwave and surface front will move across the Central Plains Thursday evening into Friday, bringing additional chances for showers and storms. Stronger shear (around 30kts) in a moderately unstable airmass could support some strong to severe storms; CIPS and CSU severe probability guidance show a 5-15% chance for severe storms during this timeframe. Chances for showers and storms continue into Friday as the front slowly works its way through the area. Current forecast highs Friday afternoon may be too warm depending on cloud cover and rain through the day. Ridging expands over the Plains again this weekend into early next week, favoring warming temperatures with heat indices near or above 100 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Primarily VFR conditions expected. Light winds and clear skies overnight could support patchy fog development again, but elevated winds just above the surface may limit coverage. Insert some VSBY restrictions at KTOP where confidence is highest in impacts from fog. Any fog dissipates shortly after sunrise.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.