textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly today and Sunday with a slow warming trend through the end of the week.

- Dry weather continues until rain chances increase by the end of the work week (60-80% by Friday and Saturday).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A cold surface ridge of high pressure dominates the local and regional weather across the central US this morning as temperatures have slowly made their way into the low 40s by midday today. Under broken decks of cirrus and light diurnal mixing, temperatures will not warm too much further this afternoon, topping out in the upper 40s. By Sunday, the shortwave that currently resides over the central Rockies will shift across Kansas and Oklahoma bringing rain chances to areas south of the forecast area. Similar temperatures can be expected Sunday given the mostly cloudy skies as highs top out in the low 50s.

The early portion of the week will be characterized by a deepening ridge over the central US with southerly flow returning better moisture and warmer temperatures to northeastern Kansas. Expect temperatures to warm each afternoon through the week with highs in the upper 60s by Friday. A weak cold front is progged to slide across the area Wednesday evening that may yield some isolated/scattered showers over eastern Kansas (15-25% chances). That said, the best and most widespread chances for precipitation in the next week will come Friday into Saturday (60-80%) as a larger trough ejects off the central Rockies with better surface moisture in place. Temperature spreads following the passage of the weekend trough trend downward as a cooler airmass from the north builds south across Kansas into the early following week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions will persist at all sites through the period with light southeasterly winds and broken decks of cirrus this afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.