textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Record or near record high temperatures and even near record warm low temperatures appear to be in play most every day through Monday.

- The risk for severe storms will be present across at least portions of the area each day through Monday.

- Large hail and damaging wind appear to be the most likely hazards with any severe storms that do form and move into the area this evening from southeastern Nebraska. As storms advance southeast they likely transition to more of a wind hazard.

- Saturday and Sunday severe risks both appear to have the highest level of uncertainty with an EML holding in place into the afternoon as the best focus for storms likely just northwest of the area.

- Monday may be the day with the largest threat across most of the area as the surface boundary associated with an intense upper level trough pushing into the area. All threats may be possible into Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes may be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 419 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Water Vapor imagery and recent UA analysis shows a closed upper low is spinning over the New England region with a low amplitude ridge axis from the upper MS Valley into the Ohio Valley regions. Quasi- zonal flow along the northern half of the CONUS is in place with a subtropical jet stream positioned over the Baja into the southern Plains. An upper low is spinning over central Canada with another Pacific low and associated trough now off the western Canadian coast. Near the surface across the area shows a quasi-stationary boundary through eastern portions of Nebraska back into western portions of Kansas. Early this morning a strong LLJ continues to shift east and steadily veer. The actual nose of the LLJ is supporting an MCS over west central Illinois. A few higher based showers with a few embedded storms are being maintained in the WAA regime over central into east-central Kansas.

Generally, quasi-zonal flow over the Rockies begins to transition to a more southwest flow regime. This will introduce steady changes to the forecast each day. Right now, the best focus for storms to initiate appears north of the area this evening across southern NE vicinity along the surface boundary. The LLJ will still be a question this evening as to how strong and where the best convergence sets up. Expect that storms that break the cap this afternoon will be able to advance southeast. With mid-level dry air per forecast soundings associated with the EML working into the area this should act to work in concern with strong surface heating to allow for an inverted-V type profile to enhance any winds with storms that become outflow dominant. Thus, still expect the large hail threat to be over northern portions of the area then storms to favor more a transition to a wind threat before tending to weaken with southeast motion.

Saturday and Sunday are uncertain especially due to the potential for the EML to be strong over central into western portions of the area and the primary forcing for ascent to be the strongest northwest of the area as the Pacific trough will continue to dig into the inter-mountain West by Sunday evening. If capping is still strong over the area, then it is possible storms have challenges forming and the overall shear will likely be marginal this far east of the incoming trough. However, another potential outcome may be storms that form over western Kansas and work east into the evening maintained by the LLJ which should be strengthening into the Saturday and Sunday periods. Expect wind and hail would be the primary hazards at this point.

Monday is the looking like the day with the highest threat level across the area. The Pacific trough is forecast with very good agreement to emerge from the Rockies quickly becoming negatively tilted. This should allow for strong DPVA to overspread the area. If the front is across the area the key factor will be where the surface triple point ends up. Deep Gulf moisture will be in place over much of the area. Shear vectors appear to be mostly parallel to the boundary across much of the area. However, if the surface low and dryline work into central Kansas then would expect this to be a potentially ideal flow pattern for possibly strong tornadoes to form with intense low level flow in place ahead of the trough. Bottom line, this time frame is worth watching and one to be prepared for if the timing of the storm system remains on track and on target for the forecast area.

Leading up to this, expect near or new record high temperatures across the area with overnight lows following suit, especially Sunday night into Monday morning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Limited forcing and forecast soundings maintaining some cap over the terminals leads me to think TS chances are to low to include in the forecast at this time. This is supported by most of the CAMs which keep convection along and north of the state line. So VFR conditions are expected to continue. There is some potential for LLWS at TOP between 02Z and 08Z. But it is not clear cut as forecast soundings tend to keep mixing in the boundary layer early in the evening. Then as sfc winds back to the southeast, the low level jet is progged to weaken. So later shifts will need to keep an eye on this.

CLIMATE

Issued at 419 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Record High Temperature for May 15

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1944) 93 Concordia 91 (1944, 2012) 95

Record High Temperature for May 16

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (1931) 92 Concordia 93 (2019) 93

Record High Temperature for May 17

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 92 (1907) 90 Concordia 96 (1996) 98

Record Highest Low Temperature for May 17

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 73 (1996) 68 Concordia 68 (1902, 1906) 67

Record High Temperature for May 18

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 94 (1975) 93 Concordia 94 (1967, 1988) 95

Record Highest Low Temperature for May 18

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 71 (1911) 72 Concordia 72 (1911) 69

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.