textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold this morning with wind chills between zero and 10 below.

- Northwest winds gusting at 30-35 MPH persist this morning before gradually weakening this afternoon. These strong winds along with low relative humidity will lead to very high fire danger this afternoon.

- A warming trend commences Tuesday with highs reaching back into the 70s by Wednesday and into the 80s on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The potent mid-level wave that brought yesterday's strong winds and snow has shifted east into the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. The pressure gradient has relaxed enough for winds to fall below advisory levels, but gusts of 30-40 MPH have continued overnight. Temperatures have fallen into the teens and single digits with the brisk winds creating wind chills between zero and ten below. With a strong low-level wind field remaining in place today, expect northwest winds to gust at 30-35 MPH through the day with CAA limiting warming. Highs will range from the upper 20s across far northeast Kansas to mid or upper 30s across central Kansas. The airmass behind yesterday's front is very dry and the combination of low relative humidity and gusty winds will create very high fire danger across the area this afternoon.

Surface ridging builds in this evening, allowing winds to weaken and become light overnight. Light winds and clear skies will favor good radiational cooling and temperatures will fall into the teens Tuesday morning. Low-level winds become southerly during the day Tuesday with moisture advecting north. Spreads for highs tomorrow are larger than typically seen 36 hours out as warm-air advection will be offset by mostly cloudy skies and highs will depend on how thick cloud cover is and how long it lasts through the day. Even the cooler end of guidance has highs 10-15 degrees warmer than Monday. A perturbation in the northwesterly flow could provide enough mid- level saturation for some light rain or snow during the day on Tuesday, but very dry air below 700mb my limit the amount of precipitation that reaches the ground. Looks to be low impact even if some light rain/snow makes it through the dry layer.

Guidance remains in good agreement through the end of the week with mid-level ridging setting up over the southwest CONUS and gradually shifting towards the Plains. Low temperature spreads leads to high confidence in warming temperatures through the end of the week, perhaps even reaching record levels by Friday. Uncertainty increases this weekend as models depict a cold front swinging through the region, but differ in timing and strength of this front. It does appear increasingly likely that this front will make it through the area and cool things down for early next week. Exactly how much cooler temperatures will be remains uncertain as NBM 25th-75th percentiles for highs continue to have a 20-25 degree spread for Sunday with lower, but still sizable, spread through Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Gusty northwest winds continue through the day with gusts of 25-30 kts this morning gradually weakening through the day before becoming light after sunset this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Gusty northwest winds along with a very dry airmass will create very high fire danger across the entire area this afternoon. Gusts of 30- 35 MPH this morning gradually decrease to 20-25 MPH by late this afternoon. Relative humidity values will fall into the 20-25% range this afternoon, but will be lowest as wind speeds decrease. Considered a Red Flag Warning, but the overlap of relative humidity near 20% and winds gusting around 25 MPH looks to be marginal and limited to a couple hour period. Even so, the dry and windy conditions will make any ongoing fires or any new fires difficult to control and burning should be postponed.

Moisture increases through the day Tuesday, but southerly winds gusting at 20-25 MPH along with minimum relative humidity values of 20-30 percent will create elevated fire danger. Uncertainty exists in how fast moisture returns to the area and in how warm temperatures will reach as mostly cloudy skies may keep temperatures lower than the current forecast. Both of these variables will impact relative humidity values and overall fire danger Tuesday.

The dry airmass holds through the remainder of the week, although winds look to be generally light and should limit the overall fire danger.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.