textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
-A series of weak fronts will bring wind shifts to the area, but likely no rain.
-Comfortable afternoon temperatures are expected throughout the upcoming workweek.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
Pleasant fall conditions are anticipated for much of this forecast period, beginning today. Surface high pressure sits southeast of the area this afternoon. Breezy south winds on the northwest side of the ridge axis have bumped temps up into the mid/upper 50s with sunny skies. The first in a series of weak surface boundaries will move through the CWA tonight, shifting winds to the north/northeast. Temperatures dip into mid/upper 30s tonight but recover nicely into the mid 60s tomorrow afternoon as an upper level ridge expands northward. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with a WAA pattern taking temps into the low 70s.
Subsequent surface boundaries will move southward through the area every other night with the next one expected late Tuesday night, followed by another Thursday night. Despite the frequency of boundaries, there will not be much difference to sensible conditions day-to-day. High pressure follows each front, along with quick wind shifts to the north. Thus, high temperatures will fluctuate up and down slightly each day through the workweek, but will mainly stay in the 60s. Precip chances remain low (less than 10%) with each passing front due to limited time for moisture advection and weak ascent with each passing boundary. A stronger, more polar based front could impact the area next weekend, although model spread in temperatures is quite high at this time.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 436 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
VFR conditions should persist with a relatively dry airmass in place. The 12Z HREF puts about a 10% chance for FG along the river valley. With forecast soundings keeping some mixing in the top of the boundary layer and none of the operational solutions developing any visibility restrictions, will not include FG at TOP. However there does look to be a 4 to 6 hour window for wind shear ahead of the surface front thanks to a 45KT low level jet, mainly between 03Z and 08Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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