textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue off and on for the next several days. Rain chances are highest Friday afternoon and evening (70-80%) and again Monday into Tuesday (60-80%).

- Above average temperatures continue through the end of this week, trending closer to seasonal values by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows broad cyclonic flow over northern and western portions of the CONUS, with one shortwave impacting the Upper Midwest and another in the Pacific Northwest. This leaves southwest flow aloft into the local area with a narrow stream of moisture from the central Rockies into the High Plains. At the surface, low pressure extends from western KS northeastward to near the SD/MN border, in association with the first of the aforementioned shortwaves. The better upper support for showers and storms will be well to our north into IA/MN, but some isolated or scattered activity may manage to develop in our area with convergence along the front as it passes this evening into the overnight hours. Other limiting factors for coverage are the waning instability and lapse rates by the time the front makes it into north central KS. Due to this, it is uncertain how long any rain may persist as the boundary moves southeast overnight, but have maintained some low chance PoPs until around 4-5am.

The front should settle in the area Thursday afternoon, though there is some uncertainty as to where exactly it will set up. Short-term guidance seems to be trending southward, near or perhaps just south of I-70. These models are suggesting temperatures may struggle to get above 70 degrees north of the boundary, whereas highs south of it are forecast to be in the upper 70s to near 80. Similar to tonight, CAMs are suggesting isolated showers or storms to develop near the front during the early evening, but coverage looks limited with modest lapse rates around 6.5 C/km.

Friday brings the next best chance of rain as the southern stream trough lifts northeast into the area. Some isentropic lift ahead of the wave could start showers overnight Thursday night into early Friday, but chances peak during the afternoon and evening when vorticity advection increases. Again, lapse rates don't look much better than the next couple of days, so while some pockets of lightning and thunder are possible, it doesn't appear probable for a given location. This wave slowly pushes east into Saturday, leaving conditions to become drier for evening Halloween activities.

Sunday brings a break from rain chances while the next more potent trough deepens over the western US and moves into the area Monday. This stronger system looks to bring the most rain to the area during the next week in terms of amounts and probably coverage as well. There is still enough variability in the guidance in how this trough evolves Monday into Tuesday, leading to uncertainty in timing and location of associated surface features. The cold front should move through the area by Tuesday. As such, temperatures look to remain above average through the end of this week with highs in the 70s, but should get closer to mid 60s behind the front. Clouds and rain could still result in temperatures on the cooler side of guidance at times, particularly on Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Gusty south winds will continue for a couple more hours this evening as a weak cold front pushes south towards the main TAF sites. A few scattered showers and weak storms will likely develop near the boundary during the evening, more likely towards KMHK than KTOP and KFOE. Overnight, winds weaken and turn more northeasterly behind the front. As this occurs, some scattered to broken MVFR stratus should develop tomorrow morning. Uncertain on the extent and longevity of this, but it looks to be more likely towards KMHK.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.