textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds possible through early morning hours - mainly across central KS. Storm chances decrease through the morning hours.

- Isolated to scattered storms may redevelop by the later afternoon hours today. Some of these could be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds being the main concerns.

- Another round of storms will be possible across east-central KS this evening, possibly posing a damaging wind and hail threat.

- Precipitation chances have decreased Saturday afternoon as the frontal boundary is expected to slide further south into southeastern Kansas.

- Mostly dry conditions are expected Sunday and into next week with temperatures building back into the mid to upper 90s by the late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows an MCS across central KS and NE, a ridge that continues to gain strength across the SW US and quasi-zonal flow across much of the northern US where the main jet stream remains positioned. The MCS across central KS has maintained a fair amount of strength given the lack of strong MUCIN present across the state with several recent reports of 60-65 mph winds gusts along the leading edge of the line. Over the next several hours, the expectation is for this line to slowly weaken as it enters more stable air. That said, given the 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and bulk shear around 30-35 knots across central and north- central KS, weakening may take some time. Isolated wind gusts up to 60-65 mph will be the main concerns with possibly some small hail accompanying any tall and strong updraft.

The morning convection will likely leave behind an MCV that will slowly work its way across the area this afternoon. As diurnal heating increases MUCAPE into the 1500-2000 J/kg range and shear near the MCV approaches 35-40 kts, redevelopment of thunderstorms will be possible by the afternoon. RAP analysis shows a fair amount of inhibition hanging around into the afternoon - possibly due to lingering cloud cover through much of the morning - so overall coverage of convection remains a bit uncertain. Recent CAM guidance has shown consistent runs of isolated convection along the MCV in far northeastern KS by in the early to mid afternoon. Given the environment, storms that can sustain themselves will pose a severe risk, mainly hail up to 1.25" and winds to 60-65 mph. Areas further south may have a hard time developing a storm given the lack of surface convergence, so main expectation is for better storm chances to reside nearest the MCV in far northeastern KS after 12pm today.

By Friday evening, the effective surface boundary and 850mb boundary begins to slide south into east-central and far southeastern Kansas. Isolated to scattered convection may become evident within this area as the LLJ overrides the boundaries and mid-level ascent with shortwave troughing moves into east-central KS and west-central MO. Given the marginally severe environment, cannot rule out some stronger updrafts to accompany convection and possibly lead to strong winds and hail within strongest storms Friday evening. Through the day Saturday, shortwave troughing tracks east of the area as meridional flow builds in from the west. This should further reinforce the position of the low-level boundaries across the southeastern portion of the state and thus, keeping most precipitation chances Saturday PM and Sunday south of the area.

Upper-level ridging begins to dominate the weather pattern by next week with the main ridge axis moving towards the northern Plains. With the surface boundary expected to stay south of the area through much of the early week, not expecting temperatures to get much above the lower 90s even with the ridge expanding across the central US. It is not until Wed/Thurs when low-level flow returns to the south when mid to upper 90 degree high temperatures become more possible. In addition to the building heat, mostly dry conditions will exist under the expansive upper high, but some weak mid-level energy maxima may try to sneak in from the southwest by the later part of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Main short-term aviation concern comes with convection moving in from the west. Gusty winds appear to the main concern so kept the tempo group in at all sites. Convection should weaken as it continues east towards the terminals so opted not to put a prevailing line in at this time. Storm chances exit the terminals around sunrise Friday with some low chances of isolated/scattered storms again in the later afternoon hours, but confidence in exact timing and locations of convection is low at this time so kept out mention. Will continue to monitor trends.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.