textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- There are a couple chances for thunderstorms over the weekend with a risk for severe storms.

- Sunday looks to have a high probability for severe weather. But there remains some variability in the details.

- Unsettled weather with seasonal temperatures is forecast by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A closed upper low was noted over the Canadian plains per the 07Z water vapor imagery. At the surface the effective cold front had pushed into the Ozarks. But surface obs still had a good gradient in dewpoint temps across the southeastern part of the forecast area.

A break from the active weather pattern is forecast today. Pressure rises across central and northeast KS suggest the front will continue to push southeast this morning with no obvious shortwave seen upstream. Additionally models don't really show much in the way or moisture advection redeveloping through this evening. The cooler and dryer air with the weak surface ridge should allow for good insolation today with highs expected to warm into the middle 70s.

There is a pretty good signal from the 12Z ensembles of active weather returning to the area by Saturday afternoon and again for Sunday and Sunday night. This looks to be driven mainly by a weak perturbation lifting over northeast KS Saturday followed by a better defined shortwave Sunday evening. For Saturday the operational 00Z NAM/GFS show the better moisture and instability axis remaining south and west of the forecast area. Although mid level lapse rates look to be steep enough that if an elevated storm could develop, there would be a hail risk. The lack of QPF from the operational solutions Saturday afternoon had me questioning the likely POPs from the NBM across north central KS. But a majority of the ensembles, lead by the ECMWF members, develop some measurable precip. Based on this have left the high POPs in tact. A break from precip is probable by the early morning hours of Sunday as the perturbation lifts northeast. Then the better defined shortwave is progged to impact the region by Sunday evening. There are some differences in the placement of the surface instability axis between the 00Z NAM/GFS. Still bulk shear increasing to around 50KT and mid level lapse rates of 8 C/km or better seem to be supportive of at least elevated severe storms. And there is some potential for the warm sector to advect further north if the surface low can deepen a little more than currently progged. Much of the 12Z machine learning output has the probability for severe weather across much of the area at 30 percent or better. So Sunday certainly deserves our continued attention for possible severe storms.

A cold front is progged to move through the area by midday Monday. With the shortwave progged to be lifting northeast of the area, this should bring diminishing precip chances. For the rest of next week, models prog a somewhat zonal flow over the central plains with the possibility for weak shortwaves to pass overhead. Predictability is lower in this time frame, but ensembles have a mixed signal for precip Wednesday and Thursday. This supports the chance POPs from the NBM and WPC. Occasional weak surface ridging progged by the ECMWF and GFS next week limit chances for strong warm air advection and a big warm up. So the forecast has temps forecast to be pretty seasonable for late April.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Weak ridging is expected to keep VFR conditions in place.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.