textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A few chances for strong/severe storms this week - overnight tonight, Thursday night and Friday afternoon/evening

- Severe storm chances tonight into early Wednesday morning will generally stay south of I-35 with large hail (up to 1 inch in diameter) being the main hazard.

- Above average temperatures return by Thursday and continue into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Another dreary day is underway across eastern Kansas as foggy and misty conditions remain prevalent. Some light rain showers will be possible through the evening, mainly across east-central Kansas. The main focal points of lift in the area include an ejecting shortwave situated over northwestern Colorado and low level frontal boundaries that are draped out over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas ahead of the upper level trough. By the early morning hours of Wednesday, this shortwave trough will begin to track east across Kansas, initiating convection across south-central Kansas. With the frontal boundary well south of convection Wednesday morning, storms will remain elevated posing only a large hail risk as they move into east-central Kansas early to mid morning Wednesday. RAP analysis of elevated instability and deep shear outline an area along and south of I-35 of 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear Wednesday morning. With steep ML lapse rates and ample lift from the shortwave and associated 60 knot 500mb jet streak, a few strong to severe storms can be expected. The main uncertainty is how far north convection will get. Most CAM guidance depicts the strongest convection staying along or south of I-35, so highest confidence remains there.

Storms move east for Wednesday afternoon ushering in a short dry period into the day Thursday. The next chance for rain and storms returns Thursday evening with some storms again being strong to severe. This will all be in response to a large upper trough moving out of the western CONUS and ejecting across the central Rockies. Through the day Thursday, low level flow increases and pushes dewpoints into the mid to upper 50s. Dryline convection should initiate across south-central Kansas Thursday afternoon as the shortwave ejects. Convection will track northeast through the evening into northeastern Kansas. As storms reach eastern Kansas, a strengthening LLJ should help to maintain convection into an area of modest MUCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear. Forecast soundings depict a significant layer of warm air in the 850mb layer Thursday evening that would likely keep storms elevated. Current thinking would that large hail will again be the main hazard with strong/severe storms Thursday night. Storms and precipitation grow upscale Thursday night into Friday morning ahead of the next chance for severe storms.

The main show for severe storms moves in Friday as the main upper trough axis moves into the central Plains. Guidance depicts aggressive cyclogenesis occurring through the day Friday as the main axis of mid-level energy ejects off the Colorado Rockies. This will in-turn tighten pressure gradients across Kansas in response to the deepening surface low across western Kansas. The strong and gusty low level flow Friday will yield in efficient WAA, pushing temperatures into the low to mid 70s with dewpoints into the mid 50s and low 60s. A dry line moving across the southern to central portion of the state will become the first possible focal point of convection by the late afternoon and evening hours. Given parameters ahead of the dryline of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, 40+ knots of 0-6km bulk shear and good backing winds with height, supercells will become the main storm mode for initial convection. Dry line storms Friday, if they can develop, will be capable of all modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes). Following quickly behind the dryline, a cold front will become the second focal point for storms Friday evening. Storms along the cold front will likely grow upscale quickly given deep shear vectors orientated parallel to the sfc front. Cannot rule out any modes of severe weather with storms along the cold front, but damaging wind and large hail seem to be the most likely concerns.

While the setup for severe storms Friday afternoon/evening seems good, there are still some questions that keep confidence low/medium at this time. The first concern is how long precipitation and cloud cover sticks around from Thursday night's storms. If cloud cover keeps majority of the area socked in through the early afternoon Friday, it will be difficult to erode the CAP by the time the dryline and cold front move into the area. This does not mean we will not see severe storms, but coverage and number of storms will likely decrease. Secondly, there is still some uncertainty where all the surface features will set up - mainly the dry line and other mesoscale features. Stay tuned in the coming days to the forecast for the most updated trends for severe storm chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 519 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

IFR to LIFR ceilings (locally MVFR towards MHK) will continue into tomorrow morning, with mist and drizzle at times limiting visibility to a few miles. Expect some gradual improvement during the day tomorrow, with medium confidence in ceilings becoming MVFR around late afternoon. Winds stay light and generally northerly.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.