textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Scattered showers are possible today, with higher chances for storms occurring tonight.

-Without a significant change in the pattern, there will continue to be occasional chances for storms through the upcoming workweek.

-Cooler today, then temperatures warm back to near average.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Early this morning, a small complex of storms was moving into western KS. Those storms are associated with a shortwave on the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern CONUS. Storms will struggle to maintain strength and will likely evolve into widely scattered rain showers as the complex moves into central and eastern KS due to minimal amounts of instability and weak shear. Thus, POPs are mainly in the 20 to 30 percent range throughout the day. Temperatures will also struggle to warm due to cloud cover, which will keep highs on the cool side of average, mainly in the low 80s today.

Tonight will bring a higher probability (40-60%) for thunderstorms in response to isentropic ascent on the edge of an increasing LLJ. While there will be more instability and effective shear to work with, severe weather is not likely overnight. Lingering showers/storms in far eastern KS should dissipate by late morning tomorrow, and afternoon sunshine should allow temps to warm back to near average in the mid to upper 80s along and south of I-70 (slightly cooler north).

Another chance for rain arrives in central/north-central KS on Tuesday as another shortwave travels through the northwest flow aloft. POPs expand eastward across the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday along a surface boundary associated with a stronger system over the Great Lakes. Long range models agree on keeping conditions dry on Thursday, but with a similar pattern remaining in place, will have to monitor for the occasional shortwave bringing more rounds of rain late in the week. In the meantime, temperatures will remain near average with lows in the mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Have added a brief TEMPO group for KTOP & KMHK for IFR visibility due to very shallow ground fog. Otherwise, have maintained the PROB30 at KMHK for the possibility of rain showers today. There is a slight chance for rain at the Topeka terminals too, however, confidence remains too low for inclusion. Will amend if confidence increases or rain begins to approach the area. Light winds and VFR is expected outside of rain.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.