textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Widely scattered thunderstorms develop along a cold front this afternoon/evening and move east across the area into tonight.

-Isolated convection could then develop near I-35 Saturday afternoon.

-Warmer and drier conditions are expected for the rest of the holiday weekend.

-A wet pattern could take shape next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Following morning showers, skies were clearing across north-central KS just ahead of a cold front associated with a system centered over SD. Dew points are in the low to mid 60s across much of the area east of the boundary, and SBCAPE had increased to 1000-1500 J/kg at 18Z where there has been some clearing. CAMs show widely scattered storms developing along the cold front as it slowly moves eastward this afternoon and evening. While instability will continue to build, effective shear looks to remain fairly limited, likely around 20 kts. Thus, most storms will likely be sub-severe. If a storm can take full advantage of the instability and small amount of shear present, small hail or a 60 mph wind gust could occur, although chances should remain low. The cold front will stall and begin to wash out near I-35 tonight. Some fog could develop late tonight and early Saturday morning, especially where the ground is wet from rainfall today.

A few more storms could then redevelop tomorrow afternoon in east- central KS as a weak shortwave trough moves northward ahead of a main trough axis aloft. Have POPs between 20 to 30 percent near I-35 to account for that. Otherwise, the rest of the holiday weekend looks dry. Temperatures return to the 80s Sunday with sunshine and a more persistent south wind. Temperatures continue to climb, reaching the mid 80s on Memorial Day as high pressure builds aloft. It should be a nice day for outdoor activities with abundant sunshine and a southerly breeze.

Looking further into next week, long range models continue to show an upper low moving northward out of TX and possibly phasing with a secondary shortwave trough ahead of a much larger Pacific Northwest cut-off low pressure system. This pattern could bring at least scattered rain/storms back to the area, especially by mid-week. Details on timing and intensity will be easier to discern a little closer to this timeframe given some current model variability (not uncommon at the 5-7 day range). But early indications hint at daily 30 to 60 percent POPs Tuesday through Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Several challenges with this update, including a chance for TS and fluctuating flight categories. Widely scattered storms could develop along a cold front this afternoon/evening. Felt that a PROB30 group continued to be the best way to account for TS possibility at sites this evening, given the anticipated scattered nature of storms. Also included MVFR visibility after rain chances for the possibility of patchy fog development tonight/early Saturday. If confidence grows, IFR might be necessary with the next TAF issuance. Confidence is then high that VFR returns by mid-morning Saturday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.