textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Expect cooler and drier conditions this weekend with lower humidity and seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures.

-Temperatures gradually rise early next week.

-Shower and thunderstorm chances increase by mid-week as another shortwave and associated front approach, but timing, coverage, and any severe potential remain uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite and upper air analysis showed an upper low centered across far southeast IA. A broad upper ridge was located across the southwest US with a ridge axis extending northward across the central Rockies. An upper level trough was located off the Pacific Northwest coastline.

The 6Z surface observations showed a surface low across western IL, with a cold front extending southward across across western IL, then southwest across southern OK into the South Plains of TX. A surface ridge of high pressure extended southward from the northern Plains, southward across central NE, into west central KS. Stratus cloud cover was shifting soth-southwest across far eastern KS, around an 850mb low across far northeast MO. temperatures across the northern counties were already down into the middle 60s, with upper 60s to around 70 degrees across the remainder of the area. Dewpoints were in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Today through Tuesday:

After some morning clouds across northeast and east central KS, skies will become sunny as the h5 trough digs southeast into southern IL. The center of the surface ridge will build southward into west central KS through the day. During the mid morning hours, the PBL will mix deeper and transport down some higher momentum air parcels. Thus, the north winds should increase to 15 to 25 MPH with wind gusts of 25 to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours. The surface winds will diminish late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Highs will only reach the lower to mid 80s, and surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s.

The H5 trough across the Pacific northwest will shift east into the northern high Plains by 00Z TUE. The H5 ridge across the southwest US will build east into the central and southern Highs Plains by Monday afternoon.

Sunday will continue to be nice, with highs in the lower to mid 80s as the center of the surface ridge shifts east across the CWA.

Monday will be warmer with the H5 ridge expanding east into the central Plains. HIghs on Monday will reach the upper 80s east to lower 90s west. Surface dewpoints may increase a bit as surface winds become southeasterly Monday afternoon.

Tuesday, H5 trough across the northern high Plains will shifts east- southeast with the southern portions of the H5 trough moving east across NE. A weak front will slowly push south across NE. We should remain dry with thunderstorms remaining north across NE. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. There may be s few mid 90 degree readings across the southwest counties.

Tuesday night through Saturday:

The H5 ridge will retrograde westward into the west central US. The mid level flow across the Plain will become more northwesterly. The extend range model solutions are in fair agreement. The GFS model solution is a bit farther south with the H5 trough Tuesday night into Wednesday. The ECMWF and Canadian models show the H5 trough not digging much farther south then NE, where most the QPF Tuesday night into Wednesday remains north of the CWA.

The storms across NE Tuesday will help to push a front southward across the CWA late Tuesday night. A complex of storms may form across central NE Tuesday night and move southeast across portions of northeast KS during the morning hours of Wednesday, according to the GFS model. If the GFS solution verifies, any complex of storms may provide northeast and east central KS with potential heavy rainfall and gusty winds. It is a little too early to determine if the complex of storms will produce severe wind gusts, and the exact track of any complex of thunderstorms. Plus the ECMWF and Canadian models keep the complex of storms north of the CWA across NE.

HIghs on Wednesday will be cooler north of I-70 with lower to mid 80s, while areas along and south of I-70 will be in the lower to mid 90s. This temperature forecast could change depending on where the front and outflow boundary become stationary across the CWA. Wednesday afternoon additional showers and thunderstorms will develop along and north of the boundary Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. The effective shear will be around 30 KTS and the MLCAPE will be 1500-2500 J/KG. Once again there could be a few severe thunderstorms. Another complex of storms may develop Wednesday night across southeast NE and northeast KS.

Thursday through Saturday:

Embedded perturbations in the west-northwest flow may provide enough ascent for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms through the period. The front will be nearly stationary across the CWA. The front will begin to lift northward into southern NE by Saturday. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Stratus OVC with ceilings of 3000-3500 feet will advect southward across KTOP and KFOE early this morning, around an 850mb low over north central, MO. The stratus will shift east of KTOP and KFOE after 12Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with north winds of 12 to 16 KTS and wind gusts of 20 to 26 KTS through the afternoon. Winds will diminish towards sunset.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.