textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather continues today, and most likely Wednesday as well.

- Daily rain chances are forecast Thursday through the weekend, although severe weather risks are low.

- Near average temperatures are forecast Thursday through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows an amplifying upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, another shortwave ejecting out of it near the Four Corners, and another still weaker shortwave moving north from northeast TX. All of these features look to have some impact on our sensible weather over the coming week. For today, the wave from TX looks to weaken as it slowly moves north through OK and into the Ozarks. As such, CAMs largely keep scattered convection well south of the area into OK and southwest MO this afternoon and evening. This seems reasonable with soundings not showing much in the way of lift, and lapse rates looking modest with what instability is available. Heading into Wednesday, moisture quality improves somewhat with slightly better instability, and there appears to be a somewhat better source of meaningful forcing with the next shortwave approaching. However, this has been trending later in the day Wednesday, leading to mostly dry conditions for the majority of the area for most of the day. Can't rule out a few isolated showers or storms mainly along/south of I-70 late in the afternoon, but greater coverage is favored towards south central KS. Other than that outside rain chance and conditions looking a bit more humid Wednesday, weather should be similar Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 80s and light southeast to east winds.

The moisture axis moves overhead Thursday along with the upper trough axis shearing out Thursday night into Friday. This is the time period that features the highest PoPs in the forecast period, but these have lowered considerably from just 24 hours ago. Although this appears to be the time frame when forcing and moisture line up the best, the weakening system lowers confidence in widespread rainfall, so it is entirely possible that some locations miss out. With weak flow and shear in place, still not anticipating severe weather, and rain amounts look light enough to keep flooding concerns low as well.

By the weekend, it remains uncertain how long this weak sheared out troughing pattern will stay overhead, as the larger trough to our west looks to weaken and pivot northeast across the Rockies. This may result in some shortwave energy hanging around the region into the weekend, which keeps low PoPs into the weekend. This looks diurnally driven with instability peaking with daytime heating and CIN increasing after sunset. Outside of these hit or miss showers and storms, temperatures should hover near average for late May with highs near 80 degrees and lows near 60 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR continues with SE winds looking to remain mostly under 10 kts with the exception of MHK, which looks to reach slightly above that for a few hours this afternoon. Can't rule out some shallow, patchy ground fog at TOP closer to sunrise Wednesday with more moisture in the boundary layer, but think it's too early to have enough confidence for mention in TAF.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.