textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer Tuesday and Wednesday while staying dry.

- Coldest air of the winter arrives by Friday, staying into Sunday. Increasing likelihood of wind chills around or below -15 degrees.

- Snow potential increases Friday into Saturday, but confidence remains low on whether we'll see snow or it will stay to our south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A broad and deep upper trough is currently in place over much of the CONUS, keeping cold conditions in place over the Plains. Despite sunny skies, temperatures are still just rising into the low 20s. We do look to see a warmup Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple of weak shortwaves pass north of us, setting up southwesterly low-level flow. Downsloping and deep mixing should help us warm into the 40s and locally 50s each afternoon. Dry conditions persist underneath the continued northwest upper flow.

Attention then focuses on the end of the week and into the weekend as a deep upper low sets up over the northern CONUS. Associated with the upper low, a sprawling Canadian high pressure will drop southward over the Plains, ushering in our coldest air of the winter. High confidence in well below average temperatures, with highs in the 10s/20s Friday and in the 10s (possibly colder) for Saturday. A blend of long range ensemble guidance gives a 50-70% for wind chills reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria (-15 degrees) sometime over the weekend.

While there is high confidence in the cold, there is much more uncertainty with snow potential. To the south of the main upper low, an upper shortwave over the Southwest will move eastward Friday into Saturday. How much (if any) snow we receive will be heavily dependent on how far the north the system can lift. If the northern stream upper is stronger and farther southeast, this would tend to keep the southern stream shortwave weaker and more positively tilted, perhaps even cutting some of the shortwave off over California. At the surface, this would result in a farther south track and little to no snowfall for northeast Kansas. On the other hand, if the upper low can stay farther northwest and lift the southern stream shortwave into more of a neutral tilt, the system would have more room to deepen and move north. This would be the preferred scenario to get a moderate high-ratio snow across northeast Kansas. How likely is each scenario? Right now about 2/3 of ensemble guidance is more supportive of the drier scenario, with the other 1/3 closer to the snowier scenario. Both seem physically reasonable solutions, so leaning towards the former given the probabilities. Interestingly though, the AI versions of both the GFS and Euro have been stronger and farther north compared to their regular versions, but have both trended a bit south with the latest 12z run. Regardless, there is still plenty of spread at 108 hours out, so plenty of time to see how things trend over the next several days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 502 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR at all TAF sites with wind becoming southwesterly shortly and persisting through the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.