textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Peak temperatures are on Tuesday in the lower 60s with most afternoons through late next week in the 40s.

- Area likely remains dry through most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Northwest flow aloft builds into the central conus this morning while the closed low rotates into the northeast region. Mid clouds from western Nebraska to central KS skirt west of the area today as sfc ridge axis slides south then east by the evening, backing light winds below 10 mph towards the southwest by the evening. After sightly cooler highs in the 40s this afternoon amidst sunny skies, low level warm advection ramps up Monday and Tuesday. While forecast soundings do not completely mix down the 12C temps by Tuesday, small spread in NBM guidance suggests high confidence for highs in lower 60s Tuesday afternoon. Westerly winds are around 10 mph while minimum RH is not particularly concerning in terms of fire weather in the middle to upper 30s.

Next cold front arrives by Tuesday evening as latest operational GFS/ECMWF are hinting at possible precip within an embedded vort max. These outputs are on the higher end of the ensemble spread (both GFS/ECMWF) so am not sold on adding pops to the forecast just yet. Gusty northerly winds and cooler highs in the 40s return Wednesday, perhaps low 30s by Saturday as a reinforcing shot of colder enters the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 452 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR at terminals as west northwest winds back to the southwest around 10 kts aft 19Z.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.