textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong system brings the potential for severe thunderstorms Monday late afternoon into the evening.

- More seasonable temperatures build in Tuesday through the end of the week with mainly dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a potent trough across the western CONUS with broad southwesterly flow stretching from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains. An expansive area of low clouds remains in place across the region this afternoon, which has limited heating and only expect a couple additional degrees of warming. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and weak instability this afternoon and evening, which could lead to the development of isolated showers. The aforementioned western trough advances east tonight into Monday with a deepening low across the High Plains tightening the pressure gradient. Abundant cloud cover and strengthening boundary-layer winds will keep temperatures mild overnight, with lows around 60.

A lead shortwave ejects northeast across the Central Plains Monday morning with guidance in decent agreement in this wave leading to a round of showers and storms that moves from west to east across the forecast area through early afternoon. Severe weather is not expected with this round, although precipitation could bring gusty winds to the surface. Stronger forcing comes through the day Monday as the longwave trough approaches and low-level flow increases. Southerly winds will increase to near advisory levels with gusts 35-40 MPH through the day. The progression of the initial round of precipitation will impact when and where convection develops during the late afternoon and evening and how it evolves into the early overnight hours. Cloud cover is expected to hold across most of the forecast area with the most likely location for clearing and more substantial destabilization across south central Kansas into Oklahoma, near the dryline. Convective initiation is favored in this location during the late afternoon before rapid upscale growth appears likely given the strong forcing. Fast storm motions (40-50 MPH to the northeast) will bring this activity into northeast Kansas fairly quickly during the evening hours, most likely as a line or broken line. Deep shear magnitudes are robust, but hodographs are rather disorganized with the most impressive shear limited to the lowest 2km. With that, considerable 0-1km storm relative helicity values (250-300 m2/s2) will favor rotation in storms, either in embedded supercells or as mesovorticies along the leading edge of a line. Uncertainty remains regarding intensity of storms, but the strength of the low-level shear does lead to the potential for damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes. PWATs of 1.5-1.75" supports efficient rainfall rates as well, but the progressive nature of storms should limit the flooding potential. The most likely timeframe for severe weather is 5-11 PM before the strongest storms exit the area to the east.

The closed low is progged to slow in its eastward progression for Tuesday, with wrap-around precipitation and cloud cover lingering through the day before the closed low pulls farther away. Another compact shortwave follows closely behind on Thursday, but moisture may be limited and leads to only low chances for precipitation. Temperatures become more seasonable Tuesday through the end of the week with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Low stratus will continue through the period, most of the time MVFR but occasionally VFR as some of the lowest ceilings become more scattered. South winds will become rather strong by mid-morning tomorrow, sustained 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts. Expecting multiple rounds of showers and occasional thunderstorms, with the most likely time through 0z tomorrow coming during the mid to late morning. Another round of stronger convection is likely just past the end of this current 24 hour period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.