textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Frosty start to the day, followed by afternoon highs around 60 degrees.

- Temperatures gradually warm up the next few days and return to above average by mid-week.

- Low rain chances return late next week with dry weather expected otherwise.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Surface high pressure is dominating the region with clear skies and nearly calm winds allowing temperatures to drop into the 30s early this morning. With a few observations already very near freezing, we are on track to see lows in the low to mid 30s, coldest within the Freeze Warning area. As the sfc high moves east today, a return to southwest winds under abundant sunshine will help highs reach a few degrees on either side of 60 this afternoon. Eastern portions of the area may still manage to fall to the mid 30s by Sunday morning, so can't rule out some more patchy frost in those locations, especially in lower lying valleys. A more notable warming trend begins Sunday as a Pacific upper low weakens and phases with the southwest flow aloft, inducing a lee surface trough in response and strengthening the pressure gradient. As a result, breezier southwest winds should boost temperatures into the mid to upper 60s for most of the area. The shortwave energy from the weakening system aloft passes through the region early next week, though it may stay mainly north of us and limited moisture may also work against rainfall, so a dry forecast holds for now.

The upper pattern becomes more amplified by the middle of the week with a deepening trough off the Pacific coast and a strengthening ridge over the central CONUS. This favors continued warmth with temperatures returning to above average. Highs climb each day, through the 70s at the start of the work week and eventually 80s by Thursday (possibly Wednesday for some). A small temperature range in the ensemble guidance plus good agreement among ensemble clusters is indicative of high confidence in the medium range. Some subtle differences in the strength and timing of the western trough are noted towards the end of the forecast period, and as a result rain chances remain low (20% or less) Friday before increasing into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Calm winds early will pick back up from the SSW later this morning and remain under 10 kts through the duration of the period. VFR continues.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035- KSZ036. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ026-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.