textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered severe storms remain likely as a cold front tracks southeast late this afternoon and evening across northeast Kansas. Large hail, damaging wind gusts from 70-80 mph, and a few tornadoes are possible with the strongest storms.

- Antecedent soil moisture from previous rainfall and forecast rain amounts from 2 to 4 inches are expected to cause areas of localized flash flooding this evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Sunday morning over portions of east central Kansas.

- Below normal temperatures and relief from the humidity arrives on Sunday-Monday with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

- As the moisture returns Wednesday-Thursday, upper air pattern becomes more unsettled as shower and thunderstorm chances return to the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mid level water vapor imagery this afternoon exhibits several embedded vort maxes coming off the CO Rockies ahead of the main upper trough axis entering the western high plains this evening. Warm front has lifted through the forecast area where dewpoints have increased into the low 70s. The morning's MCV over southeast Kansas has complicated the forecast for this afternoon and evening, resulting in a delay in richer low level moisture and warmer temps advecting northward by mid afternoon. In addition, a secondary MCS over southeast Nebraska has pushed an outflow boundary through northeast Kansas, providing a potential focus for storm development as early as 1-2 PM. In terms of the cold front, lack of stronger convergence and slower timing of the boundary on some of the CAMs has led to uncertainty in coverage/location of severe storms this afternoon and evening. Environment in vicinity of the front and just ahead of remains conducive for severe storms given that MLCAPE quickly increases above 2500 J/KG between 3-9 PM while effective shear is adequate at 35-40 kts. Current thinking is for isolated storm initiation to occur near a remnant outflow boundary as early as 1 PM, becoming more scattered in coverage between 5-9 PM as the front progresses southeast. Initially, large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary hazards. Sfc winds back slightly to the southeast by early evening, increasing low level SRH and the potential for a few tornadoes with any supercells, especially near any residual boundaries. Further into the evening, brief spin up tornadoes along the leading edge of the MCS are possible as 0-3 KM bulk shear vectors increase to around 30 kts with the LLJ.

In terms of flooding, sparser coverage of convection may limit the widespread threat for flooding. However as storms congeal into a cluster/line, PWAT values increase above 2 inches while moisture convergence enhances towards east central Kansas. Rainfall rates of 2-3 inches/hr still seem reasonable, however may be more localized depending on the coverage of storms. Decided to not make any changes to the Flood Watch at this time, progged to end by 6 AM Sunday, perhaps earlier in the morning as storms clear out.

The MCS is expected to exit southeast overnight behind the front, as a much cooler and drier airmass overspreads the region on Sunday. Under mostly cloudy skies, highs Sunday will struggle to reach the middle 70s with north winds around 10 mph. Lows to start the work week Monday are in the 50s before temps begin to gradually warm back into the 80s by Tuesday. Longwave upper trough dives into the Midwest next week, shifting winds to the northwest in the region. Embedded perturbations coming off the high plains may develop an overnight MCS Tuesday evening towards central KS. Another front dropping southward in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe may also be the impetus for stronger thunderstorms before high pressure takes over once again at the end of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR at terminals as focus remains on fropa and timing of storms forming along the boundary. Latest guidance is slower with the progression of the front and trends in storm coverage have decreased so overall confidence is lower than average in impacts at terminals. Have kept the Prob30 mention at this time for TSRA in the 00-04Z time frame. Additional showers and isolated thunder may be possible behind the front through 08Z so added a mention of VCSH. north winds behind the front were also increased with gusts in upwards of 30 kts.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ026-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.