textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- An overall warmer than normal pattern remains in place this forecast period with highs in the upper 40s and even near 60 at times.

- An overall dry pattern also looks to remain in place outside of a few rainshowers late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A 20-40% chance of precipitation sets up across northeast Kansas areas.

- Windy conditions behind the front ramp up Thursday morning as dry air pushes into the area. A wind advisory may be needed for this period.

- A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of north-central into east-central Kansas areas due to the combined impacts of the northwest wind along with the dry conditions expected. A Red Flag warning may be needed in later forecast updates.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Current surface and satellite analysis suggests that the mean Westerlies and surface frontal systems remain tracking across the northern tier of the CONUS. Mild weather remains across the area as a result of weaker cold intrusions this far south with 50s in place and near 60 at some spots over western areas. Downsloping winds over western Kansas are bumping temperatures up to 70! A weak surface trough is over central into north-central Kansas and will continue to be dragged east as a low pressure system over east central Canada works east.

A progressive pattern remains across the northern CONUS with a low amplitude trough-ridge-trough pattern in place. The next clipper system is poised to make its way into the northern Plains tomorrow night into Thursday morning which will cause rapid cyclogenesis to take place with a modified cold front developing and pushing through the area likely before sunrise on Thursday. This brings an increased chance for precipitation across northeastern sections of the area with around a tenth of an inch of QPF possible and generally a 20- 40% chance of light rainshowers before sunrise. H85 temps remain warm enough to keep all liquid in the forecast with sufficiently warm profiles to the surface before the modified colder air works into the area. Temperatures are expected to be slightly lower Thursday but still warm by relative standards into the upper 40s to around 50. The overall clipper system shifts east into the western Great Lakes quickly so the the pressure gradient from the system this far south looks overall weaker than one would expect to cause winds to push much higher than advisory criteria. Expecting near advisory or advisory criteria area-wide as the push of dry air works into the region. Additionally, fire weather concerns appear to set up especially over north-central into east-central areas by late morning into the afternoon as fuels are likely cured. One limited factor may be the depth of mixing of dry air to the surface but the strong northwest winds are expected to offset slightly more moist air. Regardless, minRH values may still drop to the low 20 percent range and cause efficient spreading of any fires that could start. Burning is not advised for Thursday and if any fires have been ongoing leading up to Thursday should be monitored to ensure they have been completely extinguished.

The warm pattern remains through Christmas so a white Christmas around the Topeka area doesn't look very likely at all.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 506 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Latest model guidance wants to keep any fog development south of the terminals. So the forecast is for VFR conditions to prevail with just some high clouds. Low level moisture return kicks in towards 00Z Thursday. This looks to bring in some MVFR CIGS after 00Z Thursday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ054.