textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Slight chances for rain/storms this afternoon and tonight.

-Dry and slightly cooler conditions are expected for the last half of the workweek.

-Temperatures quickly warm this week and reach the upper 90s by Sunday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A large mid-level ridge remains anchored over the southwestern CONUS and an area of low pressure is over southern Canada. There were a few shortwaves noted between the ridge and the low to the north on water vapor imagery early this morning. One was producing storms in Nebraska and the other in far southeast Colorado. Some uncertainty remains on storm chances in the area today, but the most likely scenario is for increasing chances in central/north-central KS this afternoon, and then again across northeast KS tonight and early Wednesday as a cold front associated with the system to the north moves through the area. If storms make it into north-central KS this afternoon, the environment will be favorable for damaging wind gusts as instability increases and with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Shear will be on the weaker side. Forcing does not look all that strong so have kept POPs low (20-30%) for now. Storms that develop tonight are less likely to be severe with lower amounts of instability, more CIN and continued weak shear.

A surface ridge builds in from the northwest behind the cold front on Wednesday, and the pattern looks to remain dry through Friday. Temperatures and dew points will be just a touch lower through the end of the week. The pattern then shifts this weekend as the mid- level ridge flattens and moves toward the southeastern portion of the CONUS. The surface ridge will also move east, which will shift winds to the south. Temperatures respond by warming back into the 90s for both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday will be the warmest day with strong southerly low level flow ahead of a surface trough in central KS. Unless widespread cloud cover or precipitation develops near the trough axis, temperatures could warm into the mid and upper 90s with heat index values approaching 105 degrees. The hot weather will continue into early next week with at least slight chances for precipitation returning to the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

There may be a brief period of MVFR visibilities at KTOP this morning, otherwise, VFR is expected at all sites today. Winds will be light out of the east. Then there is a slight chance for TS this evening and tonight, but still too much uncertainty on timing and location to include it in the forecast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.