textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Seasonably warm temperatures highlight much of the forecast period, particularly Monday afternoon with record highs expected.
- Rain chances are trending less likely Tuesday/Wednesday with scattered low rain chances Thursday-Saturday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 150 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026
Upper ridging builds eastward this weekend, advecting warmer low level temps into the region Sunday into Monday. Sfc troughing in southeast Colorado Monday will maximize h85 temps above 13C as southerly winds increase from 10 to 15 mph. NBM spread continues to minimize for high temps, centering in the low-mid 70s on Monday (see CLIMATE section below). There is not a strong signal for gusty winds Sunday and Monday afternoons, with perhaps Monday afternoon seeing gusts to around 20 mph in north central Kansas. Elevated fire weather concerns however are present on Monday afternoon as min RH values fall from 25-30 percent.
In the long term, southern stream upper low progged to impact the southern conus Tuesday-Wednesday continues to trend further south, lowering confidence in rain chances for northeast Kansas during that period. Any precip that does occur would be all rain, given that temps are in the 40s/50s. Upper flow pattern becomes more zonal Thursday-Saturday, allowing several perturbations to cross the central plains. Ensemble solutions exhibit high variability in QPF given that the main shortwave trough axis weakens by the weekend. Low chance pops seem reasonable at this time. A modified cold front arrives on Thursday, signaling a return to highs near 50 degrees.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. A southwesterly low-level jet at 1500 feet will increase to 40 KTS after 3Z but should weaken by 10Z. There will be 30-35 KTS of low-level wind shear at the terminals from 3Z through 10Z. Winds late Sunday morning will become northwesterly but should remain under 10 KTS.
CLIMATE
Issued at 421 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026
Updated at 151 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026
Record High Temperatures for February 9
Forecast High Record (Year) Topeka 73 72 (1932) Concordia 72 70 (1976, 1996)
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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