textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Heavy rainfall from overnight tapers off this morning. Additional showers and storms expected later today.

-Soggy conditions linger into the start of the weekend but temperatures stay mild.

-A strong storm system brings additional chances for rain early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

At 08Z and during the pre-dawn hours, a LLJ was nosing into northern KS over a sfc boundary near I-70. Isentropic ascent within a moist environment -- pwats around 1.3 inches exceeds the 90th percentile for late October -- allowed for scattered storms with very heavy rainfall rates of 2.0 and 3.0 inches per hour. Numerous flood advisories and warnings were issued overnight, a few of which could linger into early Friday. The trend into the daylight hours should be for rain to largely exit the area as the LLJ subsides and the front pushes northward. The exception may be in far northeast KS where some isentropic ascent could continue near the boundary. Most of the area will experience a brief break in precipitation until chances for scattered showers and storms increase again this afternoon and evening with the arrival of another surge of moisture ahead of an approaching shortwave from the TX/OK panhandles. Storms will likely remain sub-severe, but conditions will again support heavy rainfall with rates of 1.5 inches per hour not out of the question. Additional flooding could occur in spots that saw heavy rainfall overnight and early this morning.

Rain is likely to linger into early Saturday with some continued isentropic ascent as the shortwave moves over the area. Showers should become less numerous into Saturday afternoon but conditions will remain cloudy and damp area-wide. Southerly low level flow keeps temperatures on the warm side of average with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Models show another shortwave moving over Saturday night and early Sunday, which could generate additional showers. Mid- level ridging should then keep rain at bay to finish out the weekend.

Attention then turns to a digging, amplified trough axis approaching the High Plains from the west on Monday. Lee cyclogenesis and a rapid ejection of the sfc low into north-central KS and central NE will enhance lift over the region resulting in showers and storms, especially as a cold front quickly advances across the state throughout the day. Dynamics of the system will be fairly strong given a 50 to 60 kt LLJ, but instability looks to be somewhat limited. A heavy rainfall potential will exist, but the system itself should initially progress rather quickly. NBM is trending a little higher with QPF on Monday compared to LREF, however both show the heaviest rainfall occurring across far eastern KS where 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rain is expected by early Tuesday. The upper low could then become cutoff from the main flow and may linger over the area. Models don't agree well on the evolution of the low past Tuesday so will have to monitor for additional rainfall chances midweek. Otherwise, temperatures trend slightly cooler behind the system.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Showers and storms move back into the area this afternoon and evening. Timing may need to be tweaked with future updates but confidence is high in another round of rain impacting airports. Otherwise, winds will be fairly light today and CIGS could hover around MVFR at times.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.