textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms are expected today. The better chances for rain look to be late tonight and into Thursday morning.

- Parts of east central Kansas could get another 1-2 inches of rain and the Flood Watch has been extended through Thursday morning.

- Cooler temperatures will move in to end the week. There could be widespread frost Saturday morning and temperatures touching the freezing mark are not out of the question.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

07Z water vapor had the closed upper low moving across northern AZ this morning with a plum of tropical moisture feeding into the central plains. At the surface the cold front had push a little further south to near Baldwin City and Lebo. Much of the convection had shifted south over the Ozarks with some stratiform rain lingering over the eastern counties.

Models indicate there may still be some isentropic lift occurring over the boundary across central KS and think this is the cause of the scattered shower activity from Minneapolis to near Emporia. So have some 30 to 60 percent chance POPs for areas along and south of I-70. The upper low is expected to begin coming out into the high plains this evening with a lead shortwave lifting across the area. In response to this models show low level flow backing to the south again with increasing low level moisture advection commencing. The surface front is progged to still be hung up across east central KS and most guidance brings a weak surface wave through eastern KS by Thursday morning. This boundary could focus another round of heavy rain as precipital water values still remain close to record levels. So there is some concern that parts of east central KS could get another 1 to 2 inches late Wednesday night and Thursday morning with the surface wave. Will extend the southern tier of counties through Thursday morning while letting the rest of the watch go with this forecast package. Thanks for the collaboration EAX, ICT and SGF.

Clouds and northeast surface winds are expected to limit much of a diurnal change in temps today or tonight. In fact parts of east central KS could see temps slowly rising before dawn Thursday as the low level warm air and moisture advection ramps up. Then a stronger northern stream upper trough is progged to dive south and absorb the closed low Thursday night. This northern stream wave will also bring a stronger push of dry air into the area with the front moving into MO by Thursday evening. This should bring an end to precip chances and also much cooler temperatures for the end of the week. Saturday morning still looks like a good radiational cooling setup with the center of the surface ridge passing through the area. So have kept a mention of frost with lows in the middle 30s. It looks like at some point we will need a frost advisory. The 01Z NBM has the probability of lows Saturday morning reaching the freezing mark between 20 and 50 percent. So a freeze warning is not out of the question.

By Sunday the surface ridge is forecast to weaken and move to the east of the forecast area. This should promote a return to southerly low level flow and cause temps to trend warmer. Although it looks like highs early next week should remain in the 70s. Operational solutions still indicate a weak shortwave potentially moving through the central plains on Sunday and Sunday night. The GFS is the only solution with QPF and more than 80 percent of the ensembles from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian favor a dry forecast. This is in line with the latest NBM which keeps chances around 10 percent.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The terminals will remain north of the surface front through tonight while moisture advection over the boundary continues. This will keep the terminals under MVFR CIGS. Widely scattered showers will be possible through the day. A more widespread rain is forecast to overspread the area late tonight and persist into Thursday morning. As a surface wave approaches towards 12Z, increased moisture advection may cause CIGS to lower below 1 KFT.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ054-KSZ058-KSZ059.