textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Above normal temperatures continue through this forecast.
- Small (20-40%) precipitation chances in mainly north-central Kansas tonight into Monday.
- Similar precipitation chances spread east Monday night into Tuesday then greater (30-70%) chances Friday into Saturday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Southwest flow aloft will be the rule into the coming weekend while an upper gyre lingers over the Pacific Northwest. Low levels remain on the dry side despite southerly flow dominating but moisture in the mid and upper levels will support precipitable water values of a least the 90% percentile of climatology. Forcing for ascent looks to come in a few periods. The first being tonight into Monday as precip over southwest Kansas at midday today may brush the area. Chances spread east over the remainder of the area Monday night into Tuesday as a weak upper wave moves through. The upper flow flattens enough for a weak cold front to move into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Instability increases enough to bring some thunder potential but shear is rather unidirectional and weak aloft. The southwest flow brings another wave through Friday night into Saturday with the front potentially sparking precip to its north mainly in northern areas Thursday night into Friday. Any precipitation through mid-week looks fairly light with somewhat greater chances for moderate amounts late this week into this weekend though latest LREF still has chances for half an inch in any 24-hour period at less than 25%. As for temperatures, precipitation potential brings some uncertainty in how warm conditions will get, mainly later in the week, but the southerly flow will support above normal conditions, particularly for low temperatures, though this forecast.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
VFR conditions will continue in a dry lower and middle troposphere. Considerable high cloud with modest southerly flow through the boundary layer should be enough to prevent any diurnal BR/MIFG formation.
CLIMATE
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Record highest minimum information for October 26:
Current Record Forecast --------------------------------------- Topeka 67, set in 2023 55 Concordia 60, set in 1985 59
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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