textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated rumbles of thunder today with best chances for precipitation across far east Kansas.

- Rain chances taper off by early Monday morning with some storms chances later in the afternoon and evening.

- Hot and Humid conditions Monday through Wednesday will push heat index values above 100 degrees.

- A cold front will bring relief to the heat by the end of the week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows a cutoff low spinning over northern OK and southern KS and another trough impacting the northern Rockies and Plains. The cutoff low over the central Plains will slowly progress its way across Kansas today. With the main upper trough axis bisecting the state (east to west), areas east of the trough axis should see persistent WAA and ample lift aloft. Given the widespread 70 degree surface Tds, moisture will be in place for persistent showers and a few weak embedded thunderstorms to occur into the early evening hours today. Recent CAM runs and HREF guidance depicts the best and most widespread precipitation will occur across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri - nearest to the strongest 925mb and 850mb moisture transport. PWATs near 2 inches could lead to efficient rainfall rates within showers and storms and could cause concern for localized flooding if showers/storms train over the same areas. HREF probs for areas seeing over 1 inch of rainfall sits around 20-40% for areas east of Topeka and less than 10% for areas west through this evening. The upper trough axis passes east into Missouri later this evening bringing an end to widespread showers.

By Monday afternoon, an unchanged and very moist airmass will lead to very unstable conditions across the region. MUCAPE will likely exceed 2500-3000 J/kg. That said, some low-level inhibition would likely keep most of the region free from convective initiation. Further west and north of the region and closer to shortwave troughing, convective development may occur across the high plains. By Monday evening, lingering convection may try to move east into central and eastern Kansas. Given some elevated instability and increasing shear values, cannot rule out a strong to marginally severe storm over central/north-central KS, but better severe storm chances should stay west and north of the forecast area.

Outside short-term storm chances, we are monitoring the concern for dangerous heat from Monday afternoon through Wednesday as hot and humid conditions set up across much of the central US. Following Sunday's storm chances, mid-level ridging will deepen over the central and southern Plains as south/southwesterly low-level flow continues to pump in warm and moist air. Monday through Wednesday heat index values will likely top out in the triple digits with Tuesday possibly seeing values approaching 110 degrees. The one thing that could help provide some reprieve from the heat will be windy conditions Monday afternoon and especially Tuesday and Wednesday. This should help to provide a bit of a cooling effect for those outdoors, but it will still be important to try to avoid strenuous activity during the peak heating hours and remain very hydrated. A weak cold front Thursday will return precipitation chances and also bring a break to the hot and humid conditions. Following the frontal passage, a fairly active weather pattern looks to remain in place as we head into the weekend as quasi-zonal flow builds across much of the central US. Weak waves passing within this flow regime will likely keep near daily rain/storm chances but does not look like a washout any day. Temperatures within this pattern would likely remain near average, especially with the help of cloud cover and precipitation tampering out any prolonged heat waves.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

CIGs are expected to bounce between high-end IFR and low MVFR through the early portion of the period. Precipitation will remain fairly scattered in nature until later this afternoon when a more widespread swath of showers and embedded thunder moves north. Showers and storms should become less likely after 7 pm as CIGs become VFR and act to scatter out. Could see some scattered fog development Monday morning if widespread clearing of stratus occurs, but confidence in this occurring at this time is low, so opted to not add mention.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.