textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Turning colder Friday through the weekend, with Sunday being the coldest day. Lows will be in the single digits Sunday morning and highs will only reach into the 20s.

- Low chances (10-20%) for light snow across far northeastern Kansas on Saturday.

- Trending warmer Monday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Northwest flow aloft prevails this afternoon across the region with southwesterly surface winds bumping temperatures into the 40s and 50s across the local area, with even some 60s and 70s across central and western Kansas! An embedded shortwave in the broad northwest flow will push a cold front through the forecast area overnight. While FROPA will be dry, CAA behind the boundary will keep highs on Friday in the mid 30s to low 40s, 10-15 degrees cooler than today's highs. Another wave dives southeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday, shunting a stronger cold front through the area. While the majority of guidance keeps precipitation associated with this wave north of the forecast area, there are a handful of members (10-20% of the GEFS, ENS, and GEPS suites) that bring light snow into far northeast Kansas. Little to no accumulation is expected even if some light snow does work far enough south to impact the area.

Colder air filters in behind the front and highs on Saturday will vary from the low 20s near the KS/NE stateline to the mid 30s across east-central Kansas. A 1045mb high takes control of the central CONUS Saturday night into Sunday, allowing for temperatures to fall into the single digits. Winds decrease through the overnight hours and will be rather light by sunrise Sunday, but even light winds will create wind chills in the single digits below zero. Southerly winds do return by Sunday afternoon with plenty of sunshine, but the colder airmass holds strong and highs will only reach the 20s Sunday afternoon. The surface ridge slides east by Monday with quasi-zonal flow taking control through the middle of next week. Temperatures warm back into the 50s by Tuesday with dry conditions favored to continue.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1026 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

00Z guidance doesn't provide a very clear picture on the potential for MVFR CIGS. The RAP and HRRR are about the only solutions with low CIGS while the NBM keeps probabilities for MVFR CIGS around 30 percent. This is similar to the HREF coverage of low clouds. With the objective MOS keeping CIGS VFR and current obs showing lower clouds still north of OMA, will keep CIGS above 3KFT for now. There is a concern though that a stratocu deck develops as low level lapse rates steepen. So the chances for MVFR CIGS look to be from 20 to 40 percent during the late morning and into the afternoon Friday. Later shifts can monitor trends and amend the forecast if chances for low clouds improve.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.