textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm through Friday, highs in the 60s or 70s each day.

- Scattered showers Wednesday evening and night along a weak front.

- Turning colder late Saturday, with low-end (20-30%) precipitation chances Sun and Mon behind the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows broad ridging over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, with a trough centered over the East Coast. Atop the crest of the ridge, a shortwave trough dropping southeast from central Canada is beginning to flatten the ridge. Associated with this feature, a surface low is located over northern Minnesota, with a weak trailing cold front extending south into far northern Kansas. Seeing a few weak returns on radar along the front, but soundings suggest this is very elevated with a large amount of very dry air beneath. So doubt any of this will reach the ground. Even with broken high clouds, gusty southwesterly flow ahead of the front is contributing to deep mixing ahead of the front, allowing temperatures to climb into the 60s. With the dry and gusty conditions, we'll continue to see a brief period of very high fire danger, but winds should steadily weaken this afternoon with the weaker pressure gradient in the vicinity of the front. See this morning's fire wx section for additional details.

Tomorrow will be slightly cooler behind this evening's front, with highs topping out at around 60. A similar second front then approaches for tomorrow evening. This front will also be weak, but has a better signal for mid-level lift as it passes through. Despite continued dry air in the lower levels, expect the better mid-level lift to result in a round of scattered showers. High-res guidance hints at some pockets of 30-40 mph wind gusts beneath these showers, likely a result of evaporative cooling within the drier air. Regardless, the showers should move through quickly over the evening and early overnight hours, moving east of the area by daybreak Thursday.

Friday still appears to be the warmest day, as the low-level thermal axis sets up across the area, with moderate southwesterly flow again resulting in deep mixing. So high confidence in temperatures climbing into the 70s during the afternoon. By the weekend, a deeper shortwave passing across the Upper Midwest will push a stronger area of Canadian high pressure south over the Northern/Central Plains. Ensemble guidance is showing better confidence that the front will push south through the area later during the day Saturday, though the 75th-25th percentile spread in high temperatures is still a substantial 20 degrees. Better confidence in notably cooler temperatures for Sunday behind the front. Still a weak signal for precipitation within the cooler air Sunday into Monday, potentially some light frozen precipitation. However with plenty of spread in precipitation coverage and the strength/placement of any below freezing air, confidence 5+ days out remains very low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail under high clouds. Light north to northeast winds early this period turn to the southeast by mid- day Wednesday. Another weak front passes in the last few hours of this forecast period, leading to more variable winds during that time as well as some scattered showers. However, chances of rain impacting terminals directly are less than 50% and are not expected to lead to reductions in flight categories.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Some additional fire concerns may be realized again Friday as temperatures soar into the low to mid 70s by the afternoon with gusty southwesterly winds. Afternoon RH values again dropping into the 20-30% range will be likely. Winds may be on the weaker side (gusts up to 25 mph), but could still promote dangerous burning conditions. Elevated fire danger could linger into Saturday, but uncertainty remains high with the timing of a frontal boundary by the afternoon. Stay tuned for additional details in the coming days.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.