textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain above normal through the next week, likely much above normal after the weekend.

- Mainly dry through Friday with rain chances increasing Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Surface high pressure and an upper-level ridge remain overhead today. Another cool night is anticipated with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer as southerly flow returns. A weak mid-level wave will ride over top of the ridge Thursday evening but should do little more than bring some cloud cover into the area with forecast soundings showing significant dry air remaining in the bottom half of the atmosphere. Attention turns to an approaching trough across the southwestern CONUS that is forecast to move into the southern Plains by Saturday. There is significant variability in run-to-run and model-to-model in the track of the low. Most models have most of our area seeing at least a little rain by the end of the weekend. The ensemble envelope ranges from no precip on the low end (25th percentile) to an inch and half (75th percentile) on the higher end. Probabilities for rain (and amounts) are higher south of I-70 and lower north of I-70. After this low moves out of the area (by Sunday night) another upper-level ridge is favored to move in. Dry conditions and temperatures well above normal are once again expected as a result.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR with mid to high clouds and calm overnight winds veering to the south under 10 kts tomorrow afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.