textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds finally break today over eastern areas of the CWA. Highs reach around 60 after a cold start in the low to mid 30s over western areas.

- Patchy fog is possible early this morning for some spots that have enough clearing - mainly western zones - and again Sunday morning, mainly in low-lying areas.

- Mild and dry Sunday through Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to near 70, then a cooldown behind a modified cold front mid to late this upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The 00Z upper air analysis shows the mean westerlies split around a broad low amplitude ridge over the central Plains, with the northern stream riding through Canada and the southern stream wrapping beneath a closed low over the Great Lakes, leaving the area under weak flow aloft. Warm, dry air sits just above the inversion at 850 mb, and broad surface high pressure is centered over the mid Mississippi Valley region into portions of the central Plains. Friday ran colder than forecast with highs only in the upper 40s as the stratus held all day, especially over eastern zones. Early this morning the stratus deck is still in place across the far eastern zones, while western areas have cleared and cooled into the low 30s and areas of fog have formed over central and north central Kansas mainly west of the highway 81 corridor.

The REFS and global ensembles are in generally good agreement on the stratus clearing from west to east through this morning into midday, so the question is when, not whether for this cycle. As the surface high slides east and winds turn southwesterly, mixing reaches the warm air aloft and highs should climb to near 60 with western areas possibly low 60s with fewer clouds to begin with.

Fog potential is the focus Sunday morning as skies clear tonight and winds go calm, especially in the valleys. RRFS soundings reach the crossover point by daybreak, so patchy fog is favored with the best development around sunrise.

Sunday through Wednesday remains quiet and mild. The upper ridge builds into Tuesday, bringing highs in the upper 60s to near 70 and lows in the 40s under mostly clear skies for the period. Ensemble spread on those highs is minimal and rain chances stay near zero, so confidence in the mild, dry stretch is high.

The pattern breaks Thursday as a Pacific trough crosses Canada and dives through the northern Plains toward the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes. Every model suite signals this trough, but they differ on how deep and how far west the trough axis digs. The GFS and its ensembles, along with the AI-GEFS, carry the deeper solution with the trough axis farther southwest, which puts a sharper front and highs stuck in the 50s over the area Thursday. The Canadian and ECMWF keep the axis farther east and the trough shallower, which would hold the area on the milder side with the heart of the cooler airmass displaced further northeast of the area. The NBM sits closer to the milder camp with Thursday highs in the mid 60s, but the deeper solution has gained ground over the past day, so the forecast leans cooler than the blend for Thursday and Friday with gusty north winds behind the front. Rain chances stay limited either way until the following weekend due to the lack of overall moisture in place.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Freezing fog has developed at KMHK this morning. Improvement is expected after sunrise with VFR conditions by mid-morning. The Topeka terminals have cleared with temperature dewpoint spreads of one to two degrees and calm winds, so fog could still form over the next hour or two, though sunrise and higher clouds moving in should limit development overall. VFR prevails through the remainder of the period with light southwest winds. Fog is possible again Sunday morning as skies stay clear and winds go calm overnight, most likely in the valleys.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.