textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds gusting between 50 to 60 mph combined with falling snow could cause near blizzard conditions Sunday, especially across northeast KS where 1 inch of snow may fall.

- Turning much colder Sunday as temperatures fall through the day. Wind chills could be 5-10 degrees below zero Monday morning.

- Elevated fire danger is possible Saturday afternoon over parts of north central Kansas as RH values fall to around 25%, and wind gust approach 25 MPH.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

An upper level trough was located across northern MI, with west- northwest mid level flow from the Pacific Northwest into the base of the upper trough across northern MI.

The mid level flow across the central US will back more to the west Tonight through Friday. The zonal mid level flow across the central Rockies will cause a lee trough to deepen across the Plains. The surface cold front across central OK, will lift back north while undergoing frontolysis. Light easterly surface winds will become southeast and southerly through the day Saturday. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower to mid 70s east with mid to upper 70s west.

Saturday night through Sunday night, an H5 trough will move onto the Pacific Northwest coast, then dig southeast into the central Rockies by early Sunday morning. As the amplified H5 trough approaches the high Plains, a surface low will develop across eastern NE and deepen as it shifts east-northeast across the the IA/MO border. A strong cold front will push southeast across the CWA between 10Z and 15Z SUN. our highs on Sunday will occur in the morning hours with upper 30s to lower 40s northwest, to mid 50s to around 60 degrees southeast. Once the front pushes through northwest surface winds will increase to 30 to 40 MPH with gusts of 45 to 60 MPH through the day as a tight surface gradient develops across KS as the surface low deepens rapidly along the NE/IA border, and temperatures will fall through the day into the upper 20s north to mid 30s southeast. Due to the strong northwest winds, a high wind watch is in effect for much of the area on Sunday. Most of the DCVA ahead of the H5 trough will occur northeast of the CWA across northern MO and IA, into WI, there will be enough ascent and frontogenesis behind the front for light snow as the H5 trough axis shifts east across the Plains. The LREF shows only a 20 percent of 1 inch of snow or more across the northeast counties of the CWA. So in areas where there can be snow accumulations on grassy surfaces, the strong winds will cause blowing snow. The western half of the CWA will only see trace amounts.

Sunday night will be cold, as winds diminish through the night and skies clearing late, overnight lows will drop into the teens with some single digits in the northeast if there remains some snow cover.

Monday, after the cold morning start, high temperatures will only warm into the upper 20s northeast to lower to mid 30s across the remainder of the CWA.

Tuesday through Friday, look for a warming trend. Tuesday highs will range from the mid 40s far northeast to around 60 degrees southwest. Summer like temperatures will return Wednesday through Friday. Highs Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 70s, and upper 70s to lower 80s both Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 547 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Light winds will swing around to the east overnight and become southerly by mid-day tomorrow, increasing to around 10-15 kts with gusts to around 20 mph during the afternoon. Skies stay VFR, with just scattered high clouds at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A very high fire danger is expected to develop Saturday afternoon along and west of a Seneca, to Council Grove line. Southerly winds will increase to 15 to 20 MPH, with gusts near 25 MPH through the afternoon hours. Minimum RHs will be 25 to 28 percent. If wind gusts increase and RHs are a bit lower then some extreme fire danger may develop across north central KS.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058.