textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual improvement in temperatures this week with readings warming above freezing temporarily on Wednesday afternoon.

- Slight chances for light snow return late Thursday evening and Saturday evening for portions of northeast Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Clear skies are allowing the regional snow pack to be highlighted on visible satellite this afternoon. Low level troughing to our west has increased southerly winds today from 10 to 20 mph sustained, occasionally gusting to 30 mph. Sfc pressure gradient gradually wanes this evening as the shortwave shifts into the Midwest, as a weak cold front passes overnight. Lows Tuesday morning are not as cold in the teens as wind chills by sunrise hover near zero. Airmass continues to modify through midweek, peaking on Wednesday afternoon in the lower 30s (east) to low 40s (west) for highs.

Another shot of arctic air makes it return by Thursday as highs return to the teens and 20s Thursday through Saturday. GFS ensembles have been more progressive and further east into north central Kansas with the light QPF/snow late Thursday night as an embedded vort max and WAA traverses the central US. Not too concerned with impacts at this point, especially since NBM probs for 0.5 inches of snow are around 20 percent or less. Additional slight chances for snow return Saturday night for most locations north of I-70 as another embedded shortwave trough shears out across the central CONUS. Uncertainty is high in the track and timing of this system, seen by NBM probs for 0.5 inches or higher of snow being at 10 percent or less.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 442 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Northwest flow with little opportunity for moisture advection is forecast to persist through Tuesday. This should keep VFR conditions in place. Dewpoints only making it into the single digits today suggests snow melt has not added a lot of moisture to the boundary layer. With most CAMs failing to develop fog, think chances for fog are about 10 percent or less. The other concern is for some LLWS this evening. Models maintain some mixing in the boundary layer with a somewhat strong pressure gradient. So will hold off on wind shear expecting turbulent mixing to mitigate this. Will monitor conditions for the boundary layer decoupling and increasing chances for LLWS.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.