textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Very high fire danger will persist through this afternoon across east central Kansas. Avoid activities that could spark a fire.

- A mix of snow, freezing rain and rain is expected Sunday afternoon and into Monday morning. Minor accumulations of snow and ice are expected, but could still create some slick sports.

- An active weather pattern continues next week with several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures look to be above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Northwest flow persisted over the central plains per the 19Z water vapor imagery. A low amplitude ridge was noted over the southwest with a cutoff low off the coast of Northern CA. Surface obs had an area of low pressure over east central KS. North of this was a cold high pressure system poised to advect south once the surface low moves east.

The main focus of the forecast is on the wintry mix expected Sunday and Sunday night. Models are coming into line with similar temp profiles. As a subtle shortwave passes overhead, warm air and moisture are expected to begin lifting over the shallow cold air. This should produce initially some light snow Sunday afternoon that gradually changes to rain and freezing rain in the evening depending on surface temps. Most areas are likely to get between an tenth and a half inch of precip through Sunday night with minor snow and ice accumulations. The main thing working against a more impactful winter event is the warm air advection itself. Forecast soundings show weak if any low level cold air advection within the boundary layer. So as the warm air advection persists into the evening this may allow temps to hover right around freezing. Additionally precip falling from the warm nose into the shallow cold air could moderate surface temps and limit ice accumulation. All together the most likely forecast has around a half inch of snow and less than a tenth of an inch of ice, mainly on elevated surfaces as seven day averages of ground temps from the K-State mesonet remain around 40 degrees. So the expected impacts are for minor accumulations of snow and ice with untreated surfaces becoming slippery. Any risk to major infrastructure appears to be pretty low. After collaborating with neighboring offices, we decided it was a good idea to put out a winter weather advisory for the minor ice accumulations. Initially it looked like the better forcing for precip ended around 06Z. But forecast soundings and isentropic surfaces suggests some continued lift within the stratus deck and continued drizzle or freezing drizzle based on surface temps. Because of this, the advisory is posted until mid-morning Monday when temps should begin to warm and to give a heads up for the morning commute.

The clouds and drizzle/rain could stick around through the day Monday holding temps down. Because of this I went a little cooler for highs than what the NBM had. For some reason the NBM has some very aggressive POPs for Monday night while the operational models show little if any forcing for vertical motion. However the deep stratus deck with isentropic upglide is progged to persist Monday night and could produce some measurable precip. Normally I wouldn't have such high POPs for mainly a drizzle forecast. But the high POPs are a result of most inputs to the NBM having measurable precip. So Have left the categorical POPs in the forecast.

Guidance shows a shortwave moving out into the plains by Wednesday. Though there is some timing differences with this wave and confidence in timing precip is a little lower than it otherwise would be. Have kept likely POPs for Tuesday and Tuesday night with better chances spreading east Wednesday, but these are subject to change until models come into better agreement with the wave. Temps should be warm enough for all rain and there are even signs for enough elevated instability for thunderstorms too.

There is a bit more uncertainty in the synoptic pattern for the end of the week and into the weekend with models showing different solutions to troughing across the western half of the country. It looks like there should be some kind of surface wave or frontal system move through Friday or Saturday. So the forecast continues with some POPs, the better chances on Friday. Temps look to remain mild and precip type doesn't look to be a concern at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 514 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

This period will see transition from VFR conditions to marginal VFR to perhaps IFR conditions into late in the period tomorrow afternoon. Temperature profiles suggest that right now most all precipitation has the highest probability of remaining in the form of a cold rain across the terminals. With surface temperatures being warm, it seems unlikely that FZRA would occur during this period. But, a rain/snow mix certainly isn't out of the question either, just too low probability to mention at this time. Will continue to assess any change over in p-type into the 06Z forecast period. Winds look to remain mostly steady to slightly increasing through the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.