textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Weakening storms continue to move east across the area overnight, eventually pushing east of the area near or just after sunrise.

- Low chance (10-15%) for isolated showers/storms to redevelop this afternoon with better chances (30-60%) coming overnight along/south of I-70.

- Widely scattered showers/storms may linger through Friday, followed by drying conditions into the weekend.

- Near average temperatures hold through the weekend, then gradually warm through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Zonal flow aloft dominates the Central Plains, and VAD wind profilers early this morning show a subtle perturbation moving through the MO River Valley. The LLJ feeding into the forecast area helped to maintain the leading cluster of storms as it moved from southern NE across northeast KS, producing sporadic marginal severe gusts and brief intense rainfall rates (2-2.5"/hr). The veering jet will continue to push these storms east with storms progged to exit the area entirely around sunrise or shortly after, though the strongest winds and heaviest rain are over at this point.

For the rest of today, the first challenge will be how far south an outflow boundary will end up from these storms and whether or not it retreats north as an effective warm front this afternoon. If it does come back further north than anticipated, then temperatures could reach the low 90s as far north as I-70. However, a consensus would keep this boundary closer to I-35 or south. This is where a few isolated storms could develop late this afternoon as the inverted trough axis approaches and provides enough convergence for ascent. Inverted-V soundings suggest strong wind gusts would be possible with any of these storms that may develop. Greater chances for storms come late tonight, mainly after midnight with a line or cluster of storms coming from western KS. It remains uncertain how strong they might still be this far east and how much of the area would be impacted. The LLJ is displaced south with the main synoptic boundary south of the area by that time, but there could be enough elevated instability and shear to support marginal severe gusts with storms along the 850mb front. Instability still looks to decrease with time, leading to weakening storms through the night.

CAMs are suggesting an MCV may be left behind Friday morning, leading to widely scattered showers and storms lingering in the area. Depending on how long these persist through the day, clouds and rain could keep temperatures cooler. The synoptic boundary looks to hang around just south of the area Friday into Saturday, and another weak perturbation aloft looks to trigger another round of scattered showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning. This would present a similar setup as tonight with similar storm risks.

Once the front finally pushes far enough south to keep dry conditions in our entire area, upper ridging builds across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest early next week. This places us more in easterly flow, which should keep the thermal ridge north of us with slightly lower humidity levels here. So despite temperatures gradually warming through the 90s next week, heat indices may end up staying in the 90s as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Morning storms have moved east of terminals. Winds look to turn to the southeast during the morning, then back to the northeast behind an inverted trough axis this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances the rest of the period are too low to include for TOP/FOE, but opted to insert a PROB30 mention for MHK overnight. Otherwise, VFR prevails.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.