textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold today and tomorrow, wind chills near zero tonight.

- Notably warmer Monday and staying mild for the rest of the week.

- Staying dry.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A look at CONUS water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over the Great Lakes this afternoon, with stronger upper ridging over the West Coast. Rounding the base of the upper low is a Clipper system that is currently over Illinois and Indiana, with a trailing cold front stretching back towards eastern KS. Strengthening CAA behind this front has kept temperatures from rising through much over the daytime hours, with temperatures still mostly stuck in the mid 20s. There's also been enough weak low-level lift behind the front to produce some light precipitation near the Nebraska border. While this was initially in the form of very light freezing drizzle, recent reports have all been of light snow, indicating temperatures have cooled enough to allow for better ice crystal production. Skies are expected to clear throughout the evening and overnight as CAA continues, dropping temperatures into the single digits by sunrise. Coupled with the weakening north wind, wind chills should bottom out a few degrees on either side of zero. High pressure stays just to our east for tomorrow, keeping temperatures in the 20s despite sunny skies.

A much warmer pattern arrives Monday as the West Coast ridging expands eastward. Temperatures climb back into the 40s for Monday and 50s Tue/Wed. We should see a cooldown for Thu/Fri as stronger low pressure system moves across the Northern Plains, though there is still sizable spread in the exact magnitude of the cooldown. Either way, with the broad ridging in place expecting mostly dry conditions to continue. Just a very low chance for a few showers Wed Night or Thursday with the cold front.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

The snow band from earlier has quickly pushed south of terminals, and while a few additional flurries can't completely be ruled out in the next hour or so, impacts to flight categories should remain minimal. Upstream obs show stratus at MVFR levels up to the KS/NE border, so would expect this to persist at least until the mid-evening hours before eventually scattering out later tonight. North winds should gradually diminish as well, eventually becoming light and then turning back to the south by Sunday afternoon.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.