textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe thunderstorm potential returns Saturday afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall are the main concerns.
- Highs mainly in the 70s and 80s other than some 90s Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Benign conditions today with weak surface high pressure over the lower Missouri valley. Modest south winds return with plenty of sun for highs in the 80s. Moisture return on this flow brings dewpoints back into the 50s and 60s into the central High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon to the west and also form nearby overnight on modest isentropic lift with a low-level jet around 35 knots. Most guidance remains dry for the local area but went ahead with small chances for most given the pattern. MUCAPE reaches around 1500 J/kg and could support some stronger storms.
The main thunderstorm activity in this forecast remains to be expected Saturday afternoon and evening as instability rises further ahead of a cold front that enters the area. Confidence in convective timing and placement remains muted based on considerable spread in CAMs but SBCAPE over 2000 J/kg is highly likely per HREF with NAM and GFS suggesting 30-40 knots of bulk shear for severe weather potential. Limited low-level shear and veered surface winds should keep tornado potential in check but there is some model similarity in bowing segments developing for both a wind and hail threat. Latest precipitable water progs haven't changed much but probabilities for the heavier rains has diminished, perhaps given the bowing trends mentioned. Dry condition for most yesterday through early Saturday should allow for some soil drying but at least isolated flooding remains in play.
Highs for western areas could approach 90 Saturday but stronger high pressure builds in Sunday for highs in the 70s into Monday. Southerly winds return Tuesday and Wednesday with decent agreement on the next cold front on the latter day. Moisture quality is more limited with this front but some convection may accompany it.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 551 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
VFR conditions will dominate with light south to southeast winds. There is small potential for precipitation late but too low for inclusion.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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