textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm conditions in place today with afternoon highs approaching record warmth.

- Fire weather conditions today reach high to very high categories; Thursday looks to be the most favorable day for elevated fire weather conditions.

- Still some uncertainty in frontal position Tuesday evening which may lead to a window for severe weather into late afternoon through the evening hours mainly focused across southern areas. Hail and wind still appear to be the most likely hazards along with flooding concerns.

- A cold front into Monday of next week may bring below normal temperatures back to the area briefly with a chance for a wintry mix.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The overall synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged over the past 24hrs. Mainly quasizonal Westerly flow resides along the northern tier of the CONUS with a cutoff low still spinning along the northern coast of the Baja region. Moist return flow has begun to lift poleward as a lee trough remain in place and Gulf return has steadily been ongoing into the southern Plains on the return side of surface high pressure ridge across the southeastern CONUS.

Today, near record warmth will be in place along with decreasing winds into the late afternoon hours. This should make for an ideal early March day across the forecast area under clear skies. Have bumped up maxT slightly as the data set show only a small spread overall with outliers being minimal. With H85 temps reaching between 15-20C by the mid afternoon, a bump to at least very close to record highs appears to be on track if not reached. Thus, at least going with the 50th percentile should be more representative of the sensible weather conditions into this afternoon. The overall decreasing winds should keep fire weather conditions limited to the high to very high range. Further details in the fire weather section below.

Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours will see the phasing of a northern stream wave digging into the northern and central Plains as the upper low over the Baja region lifts into the southern Plains. This will sharpen a stationary boundary across the area with increase moist flow into the afternoon hours into the region. Ensemble data sets suggest that at least some time and space overlapping of sufficient shear with instability will be present - especially over southern areas - to warrant at least the potential for severe weather during this time frame. NAEFS data has shifted the moist anomaly a bit further southeast during the 12Z cycle. With PWs still above the 90th percentile some flooding concerns with any training storms still remain over southern portions of the area. The overall severe risk depends on the surface front and how far southeast it will begin to advance by the time the EML would erode and thus the traditional "cap" would be breached. Overall, shear vectors appear to be setting up more parallel to the boundary which would likely lead to more storm interactions more quickly. This may limit overall intensity of any single storm if more interactions begin sooner. Regardless, still expecting a hail and wind threat with the most intense storms then transition to a flooding threat especially considering recent rainfall has been highest over southern areas.

Behind the front, Wednesday will be cooler overall with a quick return of warmer temperatures into Thursday along with windy conditons as a clipper system moves across the northern Plains. Looks like this may be the best day for elevated fire weather conditions this week. Again, see discussion below for details.

Spreads in temperatures widen greatly by late Sunday into Monday of next week as a cold front enters the region bringing temperatures below normal and possibly a wintry mix to the area into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 505 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Mixing increases soon after sunrise and the LLJ weakens leaving primarily a wind forecast still in play through the period. Winds gradually back to the south into the overnight period. Moist flow continues to return into the area which will see increasing cloud coverage. Some models suggest that low stratus could form beneath the inversion late in the period and advect into the region. However, this isn't yet a concensus so have only gone with the more likely higher level cloud coverage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Today, fire weather conditions will be high to very high across the area with generally good to excellent smoke dispersal rates with sufficiently deep mixing in place into the afternoon. Winds remain out of the WSW and generally begin to decrease into mid afternoon and calm into the evening with afternoon gusts generally under 20 mph for most limiting overall fire danger. MinRH values to the low 20 percent ranges over western areas with 30 to 40 percent ranges over the east.

A front sets up across the area on Tuesday with overall weak winds in place over northern areas along the likely position of the developing front. Over east-central areas, winds will become stronger and deeper into the afternoon but the offset by increasing moisture bringing minRH values to 40-50 percent ranges.

Thursday may bring the next most favorable conditions to support elevated fire weather conditions. Depending on the position of another weather system moving across the northern Plains into the afternoon, SW winds may increase across the area and coincide with deep afternoon mixing to help overlap with low minRH values to around 20 percent or lower over western areas with slightly higher RH values over eastern areas into the mid to upper 20 percent ranges but all areas may still see favorable conditions in place for elevated fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Record high temperature information:

March 9 Current Record Forecast High ------------------------------------------ Topeka 80, set in 1986 79 Concordia 81, set in 1986 79

March 10 Current Record Forecast High ------------------------------------------ Topeka 84, set in 1967 81 Concordia 84, set in 2025 70

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.