textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A heat advisory remains in effect through Friday.

- Hot and dry weather is likely to continue through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The center of the upper ridge had shifted to the southeastern U.S. per the 07Z water vapor imagery while a shortwave trough lifted northeast through the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge was still influencing the weather over the forecast area even with a more southwesterly flow overhead. At the surface low pressure was observed over the high plains with a inverted trough axis extending through southern NEB and into northern IA.

Overall there isn't a lot of change to the forecast that calls for hot and dry weather to persist through the weekend. The RAP and NAM show some signal for elevated shower development around sunrise this morning and again Thursday morning. Although the isentropic lift is progged to be somewhat limited in area. For now most models fail to generate any QPF this morning and the HRRR has isolated showers Thursday morning. So have kept a dry forecast this morning due to the lack of precip from the models and will hold off on adding a POP to Thursday to see is models are consistent in the lift. Aside from that there isn't much signal for organized forcing to generate precipitation as the consensus has the upper ridge redeveloping over the central plains beginning Friday and remaining over the area through Sunday. The NBM continues to under perform with high temps so have leaned more on adiabatic mixing of 925MB and 850MB temps from the operational solutions to keep highs around 101 today. Decent southwesterly winds look to mix the boundary layer out again today so heat indices are not expected to be that much hotter than the actual air temp. However models prog persistent southerly low level flow by late in the week which should allow better gulf moisture to move in and increase low level humidity. So while mixing may be a little more limited going into the weekend, higher levels of humidity may actually cause the heat index to increase. Don't have any issues with keeping the heat advisory and if there are no big changes in the later model runs, it may be prudent to extend it beyond Friday.

By early next week, the GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles diverge on the synoptic pattern with more members of the GFS wanting to flatten out the upper ridge while a majority of the ECMWF members try to maintain the ridge. So there is lower predictability by the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. In either case the prospect for a strong push of Canadian air appears to be unlikely and the NBM/WPC forecast of keeping temps in the middle 90s next week looks reasonable. There are some slight chance POPs in the forecast along the NEB state line early next week, likely from the increasing spread in potential outcome and some of the ensembles flattening the ridge. I don't have much confidence in precip chances until a more consistent sign of the ridge breaking down becomes apparent.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

There is no obvious forcing within the southwest flow with the boundary remains well north of the terminals. So will continue with a VFR forecast.

CLIMATE

Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

Record Forecast

September 3 Topeka 77, set in 1939 77 Concordia 80, set in 1947 79

September 4 Topeka 78, set in 2014 76 Concordia 79, set in 1954 79

September 5 Topeka 76, set in 1983 77 Concordia 78, set in 1899 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.