textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Above-normal temperatures continue into the weekend with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

- Precipitation chances increase late Friday through Saturday, but uncertainty in precipitation chances/amounts remains high.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The forecast area is wedged between a northern and southern stream shortwave early this morning, with the northern wave pushing a cold front into the area. North winds gusting at 25-35 MPH have been observed behind the front which continue to march across the area this morning, advancing through the entire area by 8-9 AM. North winds usher in colder air for today after the record-breaking temperatures observed yesterday. Highs will be 20-25 degrees cooler than yesterday, but still above-normal in the 50s. Winds gradually decrease through the day and become light this evening and overnight as surface ridging builds in. Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for temperatures to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s.

Zonal flow persists through Thursday, keeping dry conditions in place with highs holding in the 50s. A weak perturbation in the flow tries to generate some light precipitation on Thursday, but abundant low-level dry air is likely to keep the passage of this wave dry. Southwest flow returns on Friday as a closed low ejects east across the southern Plains. Guidance still differs in track and intensity of this feature. Notably, the ENS and GEFS members show a farther north track and higher chances for precipitation than their deterministic counterparts. The NBM highlights this uncertainty; the 25th percentile for rainfall is zero for areas north of Interstate 70 with a few tenths south of I-35 while the 75th percentile has a widespread 1-2" across the area. With warm temperatures in place, the potential for any wintry precipitation is very low (<15%). Southerly low-level flow strengthens Monday into Tuesday as a mid-level ridge builds overhead, favoring even warmer temperatures with highs in the 60s and potentially 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Continued VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds relax into sunset this evening and taper off into the overnight becoming calm. Mid-level clouds increase as moisture streams overhead from the WSW into the last half of the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.