textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Cool and mainly cloudy into Tuesday with more patchy drizzle possible.
- Rain chances return mid week into the weekend with warmer temperatures likely.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Zonal upper flow with weak surface high pressure to the north keeping conditions rather benign and much more fall like than recent weeks. Low stratus was slowly diminishing with a moderate inversion over the boundary layer on the 12Z sounding. Conditions only slowly change into early Wednesday so stratus returning and building down again tonight is anticipated as per most hi-res models. Some patchy drizzle could return late tonight into Tuesday morning with slow clearing again for highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Modest southerly flow off the surface returns Wednesday for somewhat better mixing and less stratus concern as upper heights slowly rise under a building south-central CONUS ridge.
Mid and upper levels moisten considerably late Wednesday into Friday as the upper ridge nudges east. Precipitable water values reach around 1.7 inches though forcing for ascent is not strong. Moderate NBM precipitation chances seem reasonable in this pattern with little concern for any heavy amounts or shear/instability to support severe convection. A northern states wave should push the greater moisture east of the area by late in the weekend. Temperature specifics are hard to nail down with warmer temperatures outside of precipitation but some 80s for highs seem likely for at least Sunday and Monday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Confidence is high in IFR conditions developing again tonight due to low stratus, occasional light drizzle and associated reduced visibilities. Models seem to agree in stratus beginning to impact terminals around midnight, then quickly dropping to IFR with drizzle by 09Z. Conditions will be slow to improve Tuesday morning, but gradual lifting to MVFR and eventually to VFR will occur late morning and midday.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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