textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Near to slightly above average temperatures this week.
- Dry today and tomorrow, with increased rain chances Wednesday night into Friday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
All quiet across the region this morning, with northerly upper flow in place on the west side of a weak cut-off low. Winds are light and skies clear across northeast Kansas in the vicinity of surface ridging. Coupled with residual surface moisture, we may see some more patchy fog towards sunrise, but this should be much less widespread compared to yesterday. The weak upper low to our east will remain nearly stationary over the next couple days, keeping quiet and clear conditions in place. Temperatures stay right around average values for July, with lows in the upper 60s and highs near 90.
Heat increases a few degrees for Wednesday as upper flow turns more zonal again and low-level flow becomes southerly ahead of a pair of weak shortwaves. The first of these looks to move across the central Plains Wednesday evening and night, sparking a complex of thunderstorms that will likely move eastward from the High Plains. Given rather modest effective shear (15-20 kts), the severe risk looks fairly marginal. But a wide instability axis with limited capping should help scattered storms persist into the area overnight as isentropic ascent shifts east. A similar setup seems probable Thursday night into Friday morning, with additional storms developing over the High Plains and moving eastward towards the forecast area. Temperatures Thursday are more uncertain, with a wide range dependent on the amount of lingering cloud cover and showers from early convection. By Friday and Saturday, confidence is a bit higher in temperatures falling back to near average behind Thursday night's front.
For the very end of the period and beyond, confidence is increasing on heat returning to the area. Long range ensemble guidance is showing good agreement in a very strong ridge building over the north-central US.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
Patchy shallow fog will continue for another hour or two, mainly in the river valley towards KTOP and KMHK. Otherwise, clear skies with light east to southeast winds will continue through the period.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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