textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
-Cold front moves through tonight/early Wednesday with increasing northwest winds behind it.
-Much cooler weather is expected for late this week.
-Low chances for rain return this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 139 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
A weak surface boundary sits across the forecast area today. Winds are light and variable area-wide. Temperatures are fairly uniform and still seasonably warm, but dew points are lower across far northern KS, north of the boundary. Water vapor imagery and H5 analysis show a small cyclonic circulation over northern TX and a trough axis over the Northern High Plains, which should quickly traverse the Midwest bringing another, more obvious, cold front through the area late tonight/early Wednesday. Winds will increase out of the northwest behind the front and could gust 20 to 30 mph tomorrow. Above average temperatures tomorrow will transition to much cooler conditions for Thursday and especially by Friday when a surface ridge builds in from the north. Low temps both Friday and Saturday morning will be near freezing. Highs Friday will struggle to reach 50 degrees. A slow warming trend commences this weekend.
Precipitation chances also return this weekend when our next system approaches Saturday night and Sunday. Long range models show a cut- off low pivoting into the Southern Plains on Sunday. There are slight timing differences, but models indicate low level moisture increasing ahead of the system as the sfc low dives southward into central portions of TX. A large sfc ridge over the Upper Midwest could keep drier conditions in eastern KS so uncertainty remains on how far north rain will develop. NBM currently has 20 to 30 percent chances across the area so will maintain those low chances for now and will monitor model trends into midweek.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
VFR expected this period. Shallow fog development tonight looks less likely due to high clouds moving over the area and with winds beginning to increase as a front comes through. Winds increase late tonight and early Wednesday and shift to the northwest behind the front. There could also be a brief period of marginal LLWS just prior to sunrise before sfc winds pick up.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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