textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
-Cooler, with rain chances increasing mid-week. Some heavy rain is possible Thursday evening into Friday morning.
-Heat and humidity build back in this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
A period of cooler, and more active weather is expected mid-week before a warm-up accelerates toward the weekend. A weak disturbance tracking across the central Plains will increase cloud cover and low precipitation chances Wednesday into Thursday, followed by a stronger system Thursday into Friday and ridge building in from the west that drives temperatures into the upper 90s to and low 100s by Sunday.
Despite the warm temperatures today (90s), noticeably drier air has moved into the area, with dewpoints falling into the 50s for some. Even more pleasant conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday with highs in the 80s.
The short-term period features two distinct phases. Wednesday will see increasing high clouds ahead of an approaching weak shortwave trough. Some models want to bring some light rain into portions of northern Kansas Wednesday with the shortwave moving through, but with cold air advection at the surface and a dry boundary layer, minimal, if any precipitation is favored to reach the ground. Thursday into Friday morning represents the primary precipitation opportunity of the week with increasing moist southerly flow at the surface and a low-pressure system moving into the central Plains. Ensembles favor 1-2 inches of rain for Thursday into Friday. Some locations may see even more than that if more instability/thunderstorms materialize or the system slows down more than currently forecast with ample moisture available (2+ inch PWATs).
Saturday brings a transition back to fair weather as high pressure rebuilds. Weekend heating intensifies Sunday as a strong upper-level ridge anchors over the Central Plains. Surface temperatures climb steadily into the 90s and even low 100s by Sunday. Unfortunately, humid conditions are also expected to return, so heat indices may once again climb above 105.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with northerly wind around 10 knots.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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