textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Today is the warmest day left this week before colder air returns. Temperatures moderate early next week.

- Slight chances for light snow return Thursday night into Friday as well as Saturday night, but confidence is low in any accumulation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 441 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Surface high pressure is starting to shift south this morning with a weak area of lee troughing noted in response to a subtle perturbation aloft. A more notable shortwave trough is moving onshore of the Pacific NW and will influence our weather over the next 24-48 hours. There doesn't look to be much of a pressure gradient over our area today, keeping winds light, although WAA through the morning and afternoon will help bring highs to the mid to upper 30s. By this evening and overnight, the aforementioned Pacific shortwave is progged to eject out of the Rockies into the High Plains, developing a sfc and 850mb low tracking across OK Thursday morning. Can't entirely rule out the possibility of some light snow or flurries Thursday morning/afternoon, but opted to go with a dry forecast for now. Soundings show drier air in the southern part of our area closer to the low where there is slightly better lift, and that includes the typically more moist NAM. Further north towards the KS/NE border, soundings show better moisture quality, which is probably why hi-res models are showing light snow up into Nebraska as opposed to further south. However, lift is weaker in northern parts of our area. Overall, chances for light snow or flurries improve somewhat heading into Thursday night and Friday as a secondary vort max moves through the area and saturation through the column increases. Even then, lift looks rather weak and precipitation may be brief at any one spot if it occurs. Probabilities for measurable snow remain at less than 50% and PoPs remain between 10-30%.

The greater confidence and higher impact lies in the colder air that will work its way in Thursday and the rest of the week. CAA ensues behind the compact shortwave Thursday, limiting highs to the 20s area-wide. Then a reinforcing shot of cold air strengthens the CAA Friday into Saturday as another shortwave dives south from the Upper Midwest. Highs Friday and Saturday are only forecast to reach the teens to low 20s with Saturday morning lows in the single digits below zero. NBM guidance currently indicates there may only be a few pockets of -15F wind chills (Cold Weather Advisory criteria) while the LREF suggests a 30-50% chance of reaching that threshold. In any case, expect subzero wind chills that morning and we'll continue to monitor the need for any headline. Models still aren't in agreement on the timing and placement of the next shortwave that brings light snow chances to mainly northern KS Saturday night. That keeps both PoPs and probabilities for measurable snow limited to 20-40%.

For early next week, low-amplitude ridging suggests a warming trend with moderating temperatures, bringing highs back to the low 40s. That being said, temperature spreads widen somewhat by that time period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Winds stay light from the southwest this morning, then become light and variable mid-afternoon through the evening. Then they turn to the ENE overnight as a better defined low pressure system develops in the area of the TX/OK panhandles. Will keep VFR conditions going through the end of the period as the best signal for overnight fog or low stratus is southwest of terminals at this time, more towards southern and central KS. Some guidance is suggesting MVFR cigs may reach as far north as MHK early Thursday morning, but it is mixed and would like to see more agreement before inserting in the TAF.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.