textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Scattered showers expected this morning.

-Stronger storms and heavy rain could return late Saturday and Saturday night.

-Temperatures will be on the cool side of average late this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Early this morning, the cold front that moved through the area yesterday is in far southern Kansas. CAMs show scattered showers and possibly a few isolated storms developing behind the boundary this morning. Mid level ascent to get showers going could be attributed to positioning near the right entrance region of a jet streak aloft. Forecast soundings from the RAP and HRRR show mid level saturation and minor amounts of MUCAPE, enough to get a few lightning strikes, primarily south of I-70. Precipitation looks to eventually move southward along a secondary H7 shortwave trough axis and 850 boundary throughout the morning. The mid level cloud deck should then erode and give way to clearer skies this afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of average today, likely topping out in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Dry weather is expected Friday with high pressure becoming centered over MO. Partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds will accompany the surface ridge as temperatures bounce back to near normal in the mid 80s. Wet weather then looks to return this weekend.

On Saturday, theta-e advection will bring a warm front through the area as low pressure deepens near the CO Rockies. Synoptic scale forcing should increase as an H5 shortwave trough approaches from the west. Models initially show a band of precipitation setting up over Nebraska where a westerly component to the wind will provide some upslope flow and lift. Showers/storms could eventually develop southeastward along the warm front into north-central KS. Low pressure then moves out into the Plains by Saturday night, providing better large scale ascent in a rather moist atmosphere with pwats possibly exceeding 2.0 inches. Models show the potential of a MCS tracking across the area Saturday night providing heavy rainfall. LREF has a 60% chance of at least 1.0 inches of rain north of I-70 and a 30% chance of at least 2.0 inches. NBM, however, has a 60% chance for at least 2.0 inches and a 30% chance of 3.0 inches across northern KS. Flooding will be a concern where heavy rain falls into Sunday morning.

Precipitation should move east of the area on Sunday. POPs then remain fairly low until mid to late next week. Slightly cooler than average temperatures are expected from Sunday through Tuesday before heat and humidity creep back up midweek.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR expected this period, however, scattered showers and a mid level cloud deck could develop by early morning. Have added VCSH for now with confidence not overly high that -SHRA will occur at sites. An associated mid level cloud deck will eventually erode during the afternoon. Winds remain light out of the north.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.