textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms are expected to move across the area tonight. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain being the main hazards.

- Low chances (15-30%) for showers/storms during the daytime hours Thursday and Friday with higher chances (30-60%) Thursday night and Friday night.

- Temperatures hold near average through the weekend, then gradually warm up next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Quasi-zonal flow resides across the Central Plains this afternoon with a surface low located over eastern Colorado. Ahead of this feature, increased southerly winds and deeper mixing have bumped temperatures into the low to mid 90s with heat index values approaching 100 in some areas. A MCV spinning over central Kansas has produced some showers and isolated thunderstorms and the potential for isolated showers/storms will continue as this features shifts east into an unstable and uncapped airmass this afternoon. Weak shear should preclude any severe potential, although inverted-V soundings would support stronger wind gusts if any storm does develop.

The evolution of this MCV does lead to at least some additional uncertainty in how convection evolves this evening, but overall thinking remains consistent with previous shifts. As energy moves through the mean flow, convection will spark near the surface low across western Kansas and along a surface boundary in eastern/southern Nebraska and move into the area from the north and west. CAMs have been inconsistent in timing, coverage, and intensity of storms, although recent runs have come into better agreement in WAA showers/storms forming ahead of any complex that moves south out of Nebraska or in from the west. Best chances for severe weather will be with any line segment that does move into the area. An increasing cap along with decreasing instability through the overnight hours should still work to weaken storms as they push south early Thursday. Damaging wind gusts of 60-65 MPH remain the main severe hazard. PWATs around 1.75" will support heavy downpours and the potential for locally heavy rainfall, but the progression of storms should keep any flooding isolated in nature.

Showers and storms exit the area by mid-morning Thursday as the front sags into east central Kansas and stalls. Highs on Thursday will be dependent upon how far south the front makes it and where any residual outflow boundary and cloud cover reside. There could be a large temperature gradient across the area, ranging from the low to mid 90s across central and north-central Kansas down to the low to mid 80s across far northeast Kansas. Any additional development during the afternoon and evening would likely be focused near the surface front that is progged to lie near the I-35 corridor. Another complex of storms that develops across the High Plains will work towards the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. The severe potential is low again with this round, but there could be some strong wind gusts with this activity. A similar set-up appears likely for Friday; low chance for an afternoon or evening storm with increasing shower/storm chances Friday night into Saturday morning.

The boundary slowly oozes south early next week as mid-level ridging expands south and east across the central CONUS. Dry and hotter conditions are likely through the middle of next week, with some uncertainty in how hot temperatures will reach. The NBM is on the upper-end of the ensemble envelope with highs in the mid to upper 90s. While temperatures of this magnitude are plausible, easterly winds through the entire troposphere do not seem overly conducive for this level of heat.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions continue through this evening before showers/storms approach terminals after 06z. Guidance has been a bit inconsistent in timing and coverage of storms, but confidence is high enough to include mention of TS for a few hours. Storms move east of terminals around sunrise Thursday morning.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.