textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Scattered showers developing this afternoon, with another round again tonight and early Thursday.

-Strong storms could then occur along a cold front Thursday night and very early Friday morning.

-Cooler and drier air moves in behind the front for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

This afternoon, meridional flow continues across the CONUS with a deep trough axis across the northeast and an expansive ridge axis over the Desert Southwest and High Plains. A shortwave is noted on water vapor imagery over western KS on the northeast portion of the main mid-level ridge. Associated lift ahead of the shortwave in a unstable and very moist environment (pwats currently around 2.2 inches) is leading to additional shower/t-storm development this afternoon in central KS. That rain will slowly move east and is expected to dissipate with time this evening. Another round of rain is looking possible (40-60% chance) tonight and early Thursday, with another shortwave in the west-northwest flow combined with isentropic ascent. Severe storms are not expected, however, isolated heavy rainfall could again occur given the very high pwats and overall weak atmospheric flow.

A stronger wave will round the northern portion of the ridge across the High Plains and into the Midwest tomorrow. That will bring a cold front into and through the area. While CAMs differ slightly in location, timing and coverage, most agree that thunderstorms will develop near the boundary Thursday night. Better forcing and a higher amount of shear could allow for a few strong to severe storms, with damaging wind still looking like the primary hazard. Heavy rain could also occur with pwats remaining very high ahead of the front, but storms should progress eastward with the boundary, helping to limit the timeframe of heavy rain at any one location. Clouds will clear throughout the day on Friday with drier (lower Td's) air eventually working into the area.

A surface ridge will expand over the region this weekend. Pleasant conditions are expected Saturday with sunshine, lower dew points in the mid 60s, and temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s. High pressure remains over the area into early next week keeping rain away. Temperatures will gradually warm each day from Sunday through the middle of next week as southerly flow returns.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Light showers should remain very isolated this evening, so maintaining a dry forecast at the terminals until late tonight. At some point prior to sunrise, should see an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms. These look to move off to the east by mid/late morning. Ceilings should stay VFR, with winds persisting at 5-10 kts from the east to southeast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.