textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The southeastern half of the forecast area may see near-record high temperatures at some spots again today.

- A cold front sets up across the area today with thunderstorms possible mainly over southeastern portions of the area into this evening then transition to mostly rain into the overnight period.

- Hail and wind hazards still possible later today with initial round of thunderstorms then transition to more flooding risk overnight. Overall, trends are suggesting later and further south for the highest risk scenarios.

- Thursday still looking like widespread fire danger will set up with possible headlines needed during later updates.

- Cooler across the area for Wednesday behind the front and then temperatures rebound to above normal through Saturday before another cold front pushes through on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The overall pattern continues to evolve as advertised with broad Westerly flow across the northern tier with a digging trough now advancing into the norther Rockies. Meanwhile, an upper level low has begun lifting out of the Baja region now advancing into the Desert Southwest and norther Mexico. The northern extent of the deeper moisture remains along and generally southwest of I-35 corridor at this hour. A weak area of low pressure developed and has migrated from the High Plains into north-central Kansas.

As the day progresses, this area of weak low pressure will propagate into northern MO and out of the region by later this afternoon. Behind this a cold front will begin to sharpen into the afternoon with cooler and drier air displaced to the northwest of the frontal zone. Generally along I-70 then south along the turnpike, a warmer and more moist airmass will remain under a rather strongly capped environment. By this evening the trend looks to continue with the front steadily pushing southeast. Convective temps don't erode the cap until very late this afternoon likely over southern portions of east-central Kansas. This appears to be the best area for a short window of severe storms to initiate along the surface front into early evening. With southwest flow aloft, shear will be sufficient if storms do form over the area. Still more parallel in orientation to the front, so would expect that a couple intense storms could form over the area posing mostly a hail threat and could also pose a damaging wind threat. The short-term hi-res CAMS suggest these storms would quickly undergo interactions which makes sense given the shear-to-front orientation. This would overall begin to limit the individual storm severe threat then the focus would be storms behind the front which likely would be elevated into the mid to late evening and part of the overnight period. This is where the flooding threat would rise before storms shift east of the area as the upper trough continues to dig through the northern Plains. Overall, look for the severe storm threat to focus over southern areas with a non- zero flooding threat into the overnight period across some areas that may still be somewhat saturated from storms late last week.

Cooler conditions behind the front Wednesday then a return flow setup into Thursday gives way to fire weather concerns (see fire weather section). Quasizonal flow regime in place through Saturday with a lee trough and return flow bringing increasing H85 temperatures back to the region with above normal warmth. Another large scale trough digs into the central Plains by Sunday with a couple day cool down and likely cold enough for a wintry mix to briefly impact portions of the area Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conditions at least through the first half of the period. LLWS conditions end as the LLJ weakens after sunrise. Winds should remain gusty over eastern terminals into mid afternoon before relaxing as the front begins to move through. A window for showers and storms looks more likely south of the terminals but still can't rule out eastern terminals could be on the northern extent of a few storms. Rain may overspread the terminals into the overnight period for a few hours but this scenario is too low probability to include at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Fire danger today looks to be high to very high over central into east-central areas for part of the day as SW winds will be strong enough through the morning into early afternoon along with minRH values around the middle 20 percent range. A front sets up across the area into mid to late afternoon which will be marked by a decrease in the winds overall in the frontal zone. Winds north of I-70 begin to change to a northerly direction while the front organizes and begins to slowly push southeast through the area. East-central counties should begin to see a steady drop-off in wind speeds into the late afternoon along with an increase in low level moisture effectively ending the fire danger remaining.

Thursday will likely see more widespread fire weather concerns as strong SSW winds set up into the afternoon as a clipper system advances into the northern Plains. Fire weather headlines may be possible Thursday as the winds are trending higher associated with a strong pressure gradient that will set up across the area. Right now, looking for minRH values to be around 20 percent or lower over north-central into northeastern areas. Slightly higher to the middle to upper 20 percent ranges over east-central areas but deeper mixing could allow for overall lower RH values in reality. The winds on Thursday may be strong enough that the higher RH values will be offset, so if winds ultimately trend higher then still expect widespread fire concerns.

CLIMATE

Updated at 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

March 10 Current Record Forecast High ------------------------------------------ Topeka 84, set in 1967 83 Concordia 84, set in 2025 71

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.