textproduct: Topeka
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and humid this weekend then slightly cooler by mid-week.
- No precipitation expected until at least Monday night.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Upper ridge in place over the desert southwest with unorganized surface low pressure in the northern High Plains leading to low- level warm-air advection over the central Plains. Some mid cloud remains but drying mid-levels brings mainly clear skies through the weekend with steadily warming 850 mb temperatures into at least early Monday per LREF means. Continue to believe the more humid and slightly cooler than LREF means is on track for surface conditions to at least Sunday, and with temps in the mid 90s not far to the southwest Friday, a much warmer day is expected today. Confidence in specifics continues to lower Monday into Tuesday with some chance for upstream convection to enter the area and a generally drying ground. This keeps the heat headlines going as-is with Warning conditions in much of east-central Kansas where heat indices peak near/around 110 today and Sunday with slightly cooler conditions elsewhere and the Watch going for Monday and Tuesday though a boundary looks to move in around Tuesday with at least near- climatological precipitation chances. In the very near term, will need to monitor fog potential with light winds and a damp boundary layer under clearing skies.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Briefly-limited visibilities around KTOP have ended and expect this to be the rule with modest south-southwest winds dominating and some mainly VFR cumulus.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054. Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
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