textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat continues today and tomorrow. Highs in the mid/upper 90s with heat indices in the 100s. Heat Advisory for most of the area today.

- Front stalls across north-central Kansas Thursday into Saturday. Slightly cooler near Nebraska border, still heat indices near/above 100 along/south of I-70.

- Rain and storm chances continue each day, highest north of the front towards the Nebraska border.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

We remain in a quasi-zonal pattern this morning, with seasonably fast flow over the norther tier states and upper ridging to our south. At the surface, a stationary front has set up across Nebraska and Iowa, on the southern periphery of the stronger jet. The warmest temperature anomalies across the country are focused just south of this boundary, where hot southwesterly 850 mb flow is present. As is typical, the hottest temperatures and lowest dewpoints will remain towards central KS where mixing is greatest. Farther east, temperatures will stay slightly cooler but dewpoints stay in the 70s. As such, heat indices should climb into the 100s across the entire area. Have extended the Heat Advisory slightly farther north as a result. Similar to yesterday, persistent high clouds and an occasional sprinkle or two may linger across northern KS and keep temperatures down a few degrees, but it will be hot regardless.

Tomorrow will be more of the same. Temperatures approach 100 across most of the area, with heat indices above 100 again. Will likely need another Heat Advisory for parts of the area, but will wait a bit to see trends in cloud cover across northern KS. As the stationary front to our north begins to inch south, we'll likely see another round of scattered showers and weak storms along the boundary. Low chance this occurs as early as the daytime Wednesday, but more likely overnight Wednesday as isentropic ascent increases near the Nebraska border. Storms should remain high-based and scattered, keeping the overall severe threat low, but can't rule out an occasional strong wind gust or small hail.

Thursday into Saturday, the front will only slowly inch southward across the area. It should remain quite hot south of the boundary, with heat indices still above 100. North of the boundary temperatures will be more dependent on cloud cover but still should climb into the low 90s each day. Upper support for convection will be more limited, but scattered showers and storms will remain possible each day towards northern KS. Guidance has come to a better consensus that the front will finally get a stronger southward push by Sunday. There are still differences in exactly how much cooler the airmass behind the front will be, but we should see temperatures get back closer to average for the first part of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Southerly winds increase slightly over the morning hours, with a few gusts to around 20 kts during the afternoon, before weakening again after sunset. If winds can get close to calm overnight, some more LLWS will be possible given a strong southwesterly LLJ. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue with just broken high clouds.

CLIMATE

Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Highest Minimum Temperature Records

August 11 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 82 (1913) 80 Concordia 77 (2021) 79

August 12 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 81 (1913) 79 Concordia 80 (1943) 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ011- KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035- KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058- KSZ059.