textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm development is possible (20-40%) across east central KS this evening. Storm chances should shift south after midnight. - Dry conditions are expected Saturday and into next week with temperatures building back into the mid 90s by the late week.

UPDATE

Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The outflow boundary from the morning storms has pushed into Lyon, Coffey and Anderson counties. Meanwhile the CU field along this boundary has dissipated in what is likely general subsidence behind the MCV over central MO. The low level jet may spark some storms this evening along the boundary, but models show it slowly pushing south of the area as the evening progresses. Additionally the low level jet is progged to veer more to the west by the late evening focusing the better convergence and lift south of the forecast area. So have kept some chance POPs in the forecast this evening for the southern counties. Overall confidence in storms redeveloping is marginal since the low level jet doesn't look very strong.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis showed a low amplitude upper trough across eastern NE and eastern KS. WV Satellite loop, shows MCV/VORT MAX over southeast NE. A broad upper ridge extended from southern CA, east into far west TX.

The 17Z surface map showed a cold front extending across northwest MO, southwest across northeast KS, then southwest into northwest OK. Elevated showers and storms continue across the northern counties, north of CWA. These storms will not be severe with only lightning as the only hazard.

Today through Saturday:

Later this afternoon, if temperatures warm up to around 90 degrees, a few surface based thunderstorms may develop across northeast and east central KS. There may be enough convergence along the boundary combined with weak ascent around the MCV/Vort max, shifting east- southeast across the area. MLCAPEs will be 1000-2000 J/kg and the effective shear may increase to near 30 KTS, so a few storms may be severe. Given DCAPEs around 1100 J/KG, isolated damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, unless one of the discrete storms can obtain mid level rotation for large hail. If Max Ts stay in the mid 80s, the CAP will probably prevent storms from developing this afternoon. I don't think the boundary is oriented along the mean storm motion, so I doubt that any organized severe storm could produce a brief and weak tornado when interacting with the surface boundary.

This evening a complex of severe storms will develop across southwest KS, then move east across southern KS/northern OK. This complex of storms may produce damaging wind guest and heavy rainfall. If the northern edge of this severe storm complex shift a bit farther north, then the southern counties of the CWA may see the potential for damaging wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall. Most CAMs, show the complex of storms remaining south of the CWA.

There may be a few showers across the southeast counties Saturday morning. The surface front will push south into northern OK. Highs will only reach the mid to upper 80s. The H5 ridge across the southwest US will amplify northward across the central Rockies Saturday into Saturday night.

Saturday night through Monday:

The H5 ridge will gradually build northeast across SD and the surface front will become stationary across northern TX. Expect dry conditions with pleasant temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Monday night through Friday:

The H5 ridge, centered across SD, will slowly retrograde southwest into western NE. High temperatures will gradually warm into the mid 90s by the end of the workweek. Deeper mixing will keep afternoon dewpoints in the 65-70 degree range. Therefore, heat indicies wil only be 3 to 4 degrees higher than the ambient temperatures. Friday afternoon may have the highest afternoon heat indices around 100 degrees across east central KS and mid to upper 90s elsewhere across the CWA.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Minimal changes to the TAF with the main aviation concern being some patchy fog in the river valley at KTOP. Other sites will not likely see much fog development. Outside this, high pressure dominates the region for the remainder of the period with mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.