textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory in place for much of the area today. Afternoon heat indices likely (80% chance) climb into the 104-109 degree range.

- Still hot Monday through Wednesday, but potential for thick high clouds and light showers may limit heat to some degree.

- Rain chances increase Wednesday night through the weekend as a cold front approaches. Exact rain coverage and temperatures will depend on how far south the front gets.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Early this afternoon, a cumulus field remains focused north of the area along a thetae and instability gradient over southeastern Nebraska, with only a low probability that any activity brushes far northeast Kansas as it moves eastsoutheast with the mean flow. A capped boundary layer and generally weak largescale ascent continue to limit convective initiation over most of the area, though a strengthening lowlevel jet and steep midlevel lapse rates tonight may allow isolated elevated thunderstorms if parcels can overcome lingering CIN. Given modest shear and instability, any storms that do form could briefly produce strong, possibly damaging winds, but the overall severe threat is constrained by the expected sparse coverage and capping.

The main story then shifts to heat as H85 temperatures warm toward 30 C beneath an expanding subtropical ridge aloft, supporting afternoon highs in the upper 90s to around 100 across central and northeast Kansas through at least Wednesday. Tomorrows heat may be mildly mitigated by some high level clouds, but generally, heat indices around 100105 degree range continue to look possible through Wednesday thanks to persistent moist southerly flow and an upper- level ridge nearby.

By midweek, guidance indicates the ridge begins to flatten as a frontal zone drops into the central Plains, leading to gradually increasing PoPs from Wednesday night onward. With increasing chances for precipitation and a further south frontal zone, somewhat cooler highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are more likely.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR TAFs are expected to persist at all sites with the main hazard as overnight low level wind shear. There may be some decaying elevated thunderstorms and showers approach KMHK this evening, but these should fall apart through the evening so opted to not add any mention into TAFs. Monday will see high clouds across the area as winds return to the south/southwest becoming gusty at times.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020- KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.