textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-A stretch of seasonably warm weather continues through the weekend and into next week.

-Conditions remain dry until a pattern shift brings low pressure toward the area early/mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Water vapor imagery and H5 analysis at 18Z shows high pressure stretching from the Great Basin eastward over the Red River and Lower Mississippi River Valleys. Northwest flow exists north of the broad ridge, and Hurricane Isaias continues to churn in the central Gulf. Another relatively warm day is underway with temps in the mid 80s, compared to our low 70 averages. Weak WAA with southwesterly winds will keep conditions warm tomorrow with temperatures expected to quickly warming into the upper 80s. The mid-level synoptic pattern across the CONUS shifts and becomes more amplified this weekend as a deep low pressure system digs over the PNW and dives southward over CA. In the meantime, Hurricane Isaias will quickly work inland through AL/MS and into TN. Conditions closer to home don't change much this weekend, except that southwest winds will be a bit stronger.

Wet weather still looks to return to the forecast, along with more seasonable temperatures next week as the aforementioned western storm system evolves and ejects toward the Central Plains. Long range guidance continues to show varying solutions, however, there remains some signal for an initial round of rain and storms on Tuesday with a surface boundary draped across the area, and the possibility of strong storms developing Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures would then trend noticeably cooler by the end of next week as a surface ridge builds in from the north.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions are forecast. Light winds from the SSE this evening gradually veer through the period, picking up from the SW Friday morning and increasing to 10-15 kts for most of the afternoon. Can't entirely rule out the possibility of shallow ground fog in the river valley at TOP around sunrise, but the window looks brief and Td depressions could be a bit more than we saw this morning. Additionally, 20-25 kt wind a few hundred feet above the surface lowers confidence in formation, but future shifts will need to monitor.

CLIMATE

Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Record high information for October 9:

Current Record Forecast -------------------------------------------------- Topeka 92, set in 1954 88 Concordia 91, set in 1921 and 2020 88

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.