textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain continues this afternoon into the evening, becoming drizzle and/or freezing drizzle overnight. Snow and ice accumulations are expected to be minor, but could create hazardous travel into Monday morning.

- Warming temperatures through the day Monday will turn any precipitation to all liquid by late morning.

- Above-normal temperatures with periodic chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. Best chances come Tuesday into Wednesday morning (60-80% chance) and again Thursday night into Friday (60-70%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A shortwave is moving through the zonal mid-level flow this afternoon with lift from the passing wave and increased isentropic ascent leading to widespread precipitation. With surface temperatures near freezing and a warm layer aloft, this precipitation has come as a mess of precipitation types including freezing rain, sleet, and rain. Steep lapse rates have created some elevated instability leading to numerous lighting strikes south of Interstate 70. While instability is rather limited, low freezing levels and modest shear could support a stronger storm or two this afternoon with hail being the main hazard, though the likelihood of any severe storms is very low. The mess of wintry precipitation types will continue through the remainder of the day, especially along and north of Interstate 70 where thermo profiles support a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and maybe even some snow. Areas across east- central Kansas have warmed above freezing, but could wet-bulb close to freezing as precipitation falls. Still not expecting much in the way of accumulations, but the mix of ice and snow could create hazardous travel. Surface temperatures are above freezing for the most part, which should help mitigate overall impacts. Bridges and overpasses will be most vulnerable to any icing.

Deep saturation wanes this evening as a deep stratus deck overspreads the area. Guidance varies on the strength of isentropic lift within this stratus deck, but it seems likely precipitation transitions to drizzle or freezing drizzle, depending on surface temperatures. Lift looks to wane from west to east during the overnight hours, but could see some additional impacts from freezing drizzle into Monday morning. Thankfully, temperatures warm through the morning with the entire area forecast to be above freezing by late morning. This will put an end to the risk of any frozen precipitation. It'll be a dreary day with cloudy skies and the potential for drizzle or rain through the day.

The pattern stays active the remainder of the week with a couple of potent waves ejecting across the Plains. The first comes Tuesday night into Wednesday, although some initial energy ahead of the main wave could spark showers or storms during the day Tuesday. The severe weather parameter space could favor a couple strong storms Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of a cold front, but there remains plenty of uncertainty in how this wave and associated convection evolves. The first wave departs and the front pushes through on Wednesday with a period of dry time expected Wednesday into Thursday before the next wave approaches the Plains. Guidance varies in regards to the intensity, timing, and location of this wave, but there is a least a small chance for some strong to severe storms. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 550 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Conditions continue to deteriorate into the overnight period with IFR and periods of LIFR anticipated. The longest duration of -FZDZ should take place at the KMHK terminal with a slightly more favorable low level temperature profile and thus the transition zone for the colder air displaced just to the north and west. Not ruling out a period of -FZDZ at the KTOP/KFOE terminals so have gone with TEMPO mention for the most likely period overnight. Lift in the lowest saturated layer gradually wanes into the early morning hours with any -DZ ending and BR into the morning before marginal VFR conditions return.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.