textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures are forecast today and Monday with highs mainly in the 80s. Tuesday warms up slightly into the 90s.

- Rain chances return Tuesday night and Wednesday night, though there remains some uncertainty in exact timing and location of storms during these time frames.

- Temperatures look near average mid to late week, but this will be somewhat dependent on storms and lingering cloud cover.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

MCS is tracking through north central KS early this morning and so far has remained sub-severe with most wind gust reports coming in between 40-50mph. The WAA regime with modest shear (25-30 kts) should be enough to maintain these storms through the overnight, but think any severe gusts would be localized if they occur at all. The LLJ being displaced a bit to the southeast plus poor lapse rates would point against a strengthening trend, and the better DCAPE is also south of the sfc front, which is now draped across southern KS. This main complex of storms should continue to track northeast with the mean wind into southeast NE by around sunrise. A convectively induced vort max still looks to hang around the area, and the HRRR has been hinting at an MCV developing on the back side of the early morning storms. While each run has had its differences in how robust any lingering storms could be, the trend has been persistent enough to warrant keeping low-end PoPs in the forecast through the afternoon hours. Subsidence behind the vort max should eventually take over by late afternoon and end rain chances. Wherever storms persist, that could lead to even cooler temperatures than forecast, but overall expect highs to be in the 80s now that we are behind the sfc front. Monday looks mainly dry with high pressure in the area and highs once again in the 80s.

For the early and especially middle part of next week, the upper pattern shows the ridge pushed just to our south with an amplified trough moving across Canada and through the Hudson Bay area. This eventually transitions us to northwest flow aloft with embedded perturbations bringing additional rain chances. The NAM appears to be an outlier with a complex of storms moving north to south through central KS late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The forecast has low PoPs in our western zones during this time frame, but have low confidence in this overall, and the instability axis is west of our area as well. Late Tuesday night seems to be the next best chance for storms (30-60%), mainly north of I-70. Parameters could support a few severe storms, although depending on where storms track we could be on the southern edge of the main threat. Another wave brings another chance of storms (20-40%) Wednesday night, although those details will be easier to discern once we see what setup we're left with after the previous round.

Temperatures are forecast in the 80s to low 90s for the second half of the week, but as has been iterated in previous forecasts, the range widens in the ensembles owing to uncertainty related to timing and placement of storms, as well as a frontal boundary nearby. The upper ridge to our southwest builds by the end of the week, which may lead to a warming trend into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Thunderstorms in the first few hours of this period are the main aviation concern with this forecast. Have maintained VCTS at MHK for ongoing TS, and will also monitor an incoming cluster of storms that is on track to impact north central KS. These may track just north of terminals, with MHK being a bit more likely to be impacted than TOP/FOE, so have maintained PROB30 mentions as well. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast outside of TS with winds staying light from the north to northeast Sunday behind the front.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.