textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm overnight with isolated thunderstorms possible.

- Turning sharply colder and windy Sunday with a light wintry mix possible

- Quiet and dry weather expected for most of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Forecast focus remains on the developing storm system over the area tonight and tomorrow. Isolated thunder possible tonight then a light wintry mix possible Sunday as the low pulls away and much colder air moves in.

Record warmth continues across the region this afternoon with temps in the 60s to lower 70s in spots. Low pressure is slowly getting organized across west central KS with the effective warm front extending ENE through Concordia into far northeast Kansas.

For tonight the LLJ will intensify as the upper trough now across the northern Rockies digs ESE toward the region. The nose of the LLJ will target northeast KS with the strongest WAA/lift after 3z where precip should develop overnight. MUCAPE fcsts show 250j/kg or more staying just southeast of the Emporia to Lawrence line so isolated thunder should be limited to those areas if parcels can reach the LFC. The low will gradually track toward the TOP area by 12z Sunday with the strongest convergence along and NE of the low center where the greatest coverage of rain/isolated thunder will be.

As the low tracks ENE expect a strong pressure surge with strong gusty northwest winds overspreading the area from northwest to southeast in the morning. Temperatures will fall across the entire area through the day. Modest 850-700 frontogenesis on the backside of the low along with a saturated lowest 700mb layer may allow for a period of light rain/drizzle perhaps becoming freezing drizzle/light snow briefly as the air temps plummet below freezing in the morning. The better chance for this occurring would be along/north of I-70 in the morning with some brief light snow also possible before ending by early afternoon. Do not expect much if any accumulation of either snow or ice from this system and impacts may also be mitigated by the initially warm ground temps.

Northwest winds/pressure surge and gradient will be sufficient to produce at least a few hours of gusts to around 50 mph so have issued a wind advisory all areas for tomorrow.

The low system will pull away quickly with any precip expected to end across the area by mid afternoon with dry, windy and much colder weather forecast Sunday night into Monday.

No major storm systems appear on the horizon for next week with daytime temps in the 40s for the most part after Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1101 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Expect VFR conditions until after 06z when showers will develop and could cause some vis issues depending on the intensity of precip. The greatest risk for thunder appears to be southeast of the TOP/FOE sites so will keep out of the forecast at this time. A strong cold front will sweep through the sites in the 10z to 12z time frame on Sunday with northwest winds gusting to at least 30kts with CIGS expected to drop into the MVFR range.

CLIMATE

Updated at 250 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Record Forecast

Dec 27 High Topeka 71 (1946) 68 Concordia 63 (1928, 1976) 64

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM CST Sunday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.