textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

-Strong and severe thunderstorms along with heavy rains late this afternoon and evening. The severe risk should exit east of the area around or shortly after midnight.

-Cooler temperatures and overall drier weather should prevail after Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The intense upper trough is digging and ejecting into the OK/TX Panhandle. The trough will become more negatively tilted this evening with intense dynamic lift expected to overspread the area after 21z. The surface low should drop toward the KS/OK this evening with severe storms likely to develop across southern Kansas then forming into a line and racing northeast toward at least some part of the CWA. Damaging winds with perhaps a squall line mesovortex risk may develop across the southeast half of the CWA mainly from 4pm through 11pm. Heavy rains will also occur given record PWATs of over 1.5" again today. Expect areas of 1-2" with some swaths of 3-4" tonight into early Tuesday. The severe risk should end by midnight exiting to the east. Additional showers and isolated storms will persist in the vicinity of the upper low through Tues morning with another half inch of rain likely on the backside of the upper system before ending by late in the day.

Another weaker system will shear across the region Weds into Thu however any precip should be light and limited to the southern half of the area. The weather looks dry after that through the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 516 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Storms reach the terminals around 02-03Z with brief IFR and gusty winds possible as the line passes, though the worst conditions should be short-lived at any one terminal. MVFR ceilings with mist settle in behind the line overnight as the boundary layer stays saturated. The cold front and wind shift to the northwest arrive late morning with the lowest ceilings of the period, with IFR likely behind the front in -SHRA and a deep stratus deck. Confidence in the post-frontal IFR is higher than the overnight period given strong model agreement on the timing of the front. Gusty northwest winds improve ceilings by late afternoon as drier air arrives.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.