textproduct: Topeka

KEY MESSAGES

- The forecast continues to have off and on chances for showers and storms for the next seven days. Rain is most likely (up to 85%) Friday and Friday night and again Monday into Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures should persist through the end of the workweek.

- More seasonal temperatures are forecast by the middle of next week with lows in the lower 40s and highs in the lower and middle 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

19Z water vapor imagery continued to show the longer wavelength trough over the Pacific Northwest. One shortwave had lifter into northern MO and southern IA with a second wave lifting towards the MT/Canada boundary. Surface obs showed a lee trough along the central Rockies with southerly low level flow through the southern plains.

The forecast continues to have occasional chances for light rain through Thursday. The RAP/NAM/GFS continue to show a good warm air advection pattern setting up tonight with isentropic surfaces indicating good lift with nearly saturated parcels. As a result the CAMs continue to develop isolated showers by the late evening and into the early hours of Wednesday morning. Have continued with some slight chance POPs expecting the coverage of storms to remain somewhat isolated. Then a weak frontal boundary is progged to move into northeast and north central KS Wednesday night. There doesn't look to be a lot of synoptic scale forcing for precip, but models have been consistent in precip along the boundary as it moves into northeast KS. In both cases, mid level lapse rates are progged to be around 6 C/km or weaker so there may be some rumbles of thunder, but stronger storms are not anticipated.

A better defined shortwave is still on track to impact the forecast area Thursday night and Friday. Although the 12Z GFS has complicated things with a much slower progression to the wave and some potential for precip through the day Saturday. There is some increased spread in the ensembles with the handling of this shortwave energy. For example the ECMWF keeps a progressive wave exiting the area Saturday morning only to bring another vortmax through northeast KS Saturday night. So confidence in the deterministic runs is a little below normal until the shortwave details become more apparent. Again with this wave, the GFS projects some rather shallow lapse rates ahead of the wave and limits instability for strong convection.

The operational solutions seem to have a similar solution with upper level energy closing off and digging into the central plains before cutting off from the mean westerlies, and the spreads from the 00Z ensembles had come a little closer. Still there are differences in the strength of the upper low and where it cuts off. This may affect some of the details of the sensible weather, but confidence in periods of rain is improving. The 12Z runs seem to trend a little further south of the upper low and keeping the surface low mainly south of the forecast area. This would make it difficult for the warm sector and better instability to advect into the forecast area. But it bares watching as the wind profiles could support organized updrafts and a risk for severe weather.

Temperatures through the end of the work week look to remain above normal so long as there is reasonable insolation. A strong pressure gradient and deep mixing should help push highs to near 80 on Wednesday. Increasing clouds on Thursday and an easterly component to the low level winds may keep highs in the middle 70s. Then clouds and precip chances for Friday and Saturday look to cause highs to trend cooler. More seasonal temperatures are forecast by the end of the forecast period as the potential for some cold air advection increases behind the low pressure system.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected. Stratus around FL040, in south-central Kansas at this writing, looks to become prevalent soon but MVFR cigs looks unlikely as a low-level jet develops overnight. This LLJ brings minor concern for LLWS though expect surface winds to veer enough to keep this in check. Isolated to scattered weak showers may still from partially as a result of this jet but chances for impacts at the terminals remain low. South winds increase considerably after 14Z and remain gusty though the bulk of the remainder of this forecast.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.