textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

-Windy conditions continue through today, with winds diminishing this evening.

-Above normal temperatures return early next week.

-Another potential weather system could affect the CWA next weekend.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: The Pacific cold front has now moved through the CWA as of early this morning. Temperatures have cooled into the 40s and 50s, with some areas already in the 30s. Much of the precipitation has exited the CWA, with just a mix of light rain/snow falling over the Rocky Mountain Front. Afternoon temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today, with most areas about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.

For Sunday, it should start out dry, but an upper level disturbance will move northward into Southwest MT by Sunday evening, producing a few scattered showers/thunderstorms.

The flow aloft becomes more westerly for Mon thru Friday of next week. This will allow for mostly dry conditions, along with a nice warming trend. Afternoon temperatures by the middle of next week could average between 4 and 8 degrees above normal.

For next weekend, the GFS/EC models still disagree a bit, but not as much as yesterday. Overall, the GFS is not as cold/aggressive with the precipitation. Additionally, any cool air that moves into the CWA next weekend looks to be short lived, as warm air should move back in rather quickly.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The high wind warning will be cancelled a bit early for areas east of Cut Bank this morning.

For the Cut Bank/Browning areas...the high wind warning will continue, as winds have been gusting between 60 and 80 mph in this area early this morning.

The precipitation next weekend is not looking excessive at this time, with most areas receiving less than a quarter inch. Brusda

AVIATION

26/12z TAF Period.

Strong winds should begin to diminish by mid morning over the western portions of North Central MT. Expect passing clouds during the day today, with breezy conditions elsewhere through this afternoon. Clearing skies and light winds are expected across the CWA this evening. Mountains/passes could be obscured at times this morning over the Northern Rockies as some light rain/snow falls in this area. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 63 37 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 56 33 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 64 38 65 45 / 0 0 0 20 BZN 65 39 65 41 / 0 0 0 10 WYS 59 33 65 34 / 0 0 20 30 DLN 65 38 65 41 / 0 0 0 20 HVR 65 37 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 66 37 65 43 / 0 0 0 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains.