textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds expected this week, but not as strong as last Thursday. - Unseasonably warm to record warm temperatures expected later this week. - A potential cooldown is possible for the weekend, but remains uncertain.

UPDATE

Moisture continues to stream across the Northern Rockies and MT over a building upper level ridge centered along the west coast. In addition to widespread cloudiness and a Chinook Arch, moisture and mid level warm advection is producing an area of light precipitation along an axis centered east of I-15 this evening. This should gradually dissipate overnight with the focus for precipitation lingering latest across the Little Belt, Big Belt and Bridger ranges. Snow levels currently around 6500-7000 ft will rise a bit further overnight, limiting snow accumulation to only the highest elevations, but this does include Kings Hill where 1-3 inches of snow is possible through the rest of tonight. Forecast is on track overall with some adjustments to pops/snow-level based on observed trends and latest model guidance. Strong winds along the Rocky Mountain front will gradually extend further east along the Hi-line and areas adjacent to the central MT mountains and island ranges overnight. Hoenisch

DISCUSSION

/Issued 606 PM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026/

- Meteorological Overview: An upper level ridge continues to build over the Pacific Northwest today, resulting in warm air advection over Central MT. Winds have been on the increase across the plains today, mainly over the Rocky Mountain Front and North Slopes of the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains, and should expand a bit over the plains overnight tonight.

For Tuesday the strong winds continue over North Central MT, as the mild air continues to move in.

For Wednesday through Friday it continues to get warmer over the CWA, as the upper level ridge builds over Montana, resulting in the potential for near record high temperatures in many areas. The chance for any precipitation mid week will be really limited, and mostly just over the Rocky Mountain Front. Do expect another period of strong winds by Thursday, with additional high wind statements possible for later this week.

For Saturday through Monday...the forecast has changed a bit, with the models no progging a Canadian cold front to move southward through the CWA on Saturday. Rain/snow will accompany the frontal passage, along with cooler temperatures over the weekend and into early next week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There is a 90 percent chance for strong winds in the high wind warning area for later today and Tuesday.

There is a 50 percent chance the high wind warning might need to be expanded into the Great Falls area for Tuesday, but with only a 50 percent probability of warning criteria wind gusts at this time, I held off on expanding the warning.

There is over an 80 percent chance of temperatures reaching record high temperatures later this week over portions of the CWA. Brusda/Ludwig

AVIATION

17/00Z TAF Period

A line of showers will continue along the Continental Divide spreading into portions of Central Montana over the next couple hours. This will produce periods of low VFR and mountain obscuration along the Rockies and the island ranges of Central Montana. After 17/06Z, expect VFR conditions to persist across much of the region.

Breezy conditions have already started across North-Central and Central Montana with the strongest winds expected to arrive early Tuesday morning. Gusts up to 55kts are possible along the Hi-Line with gusts up to 60kts possible along the Rocky Mountain Front. -thor

HYDROLOGY

With the recent heavy snowfall in Judith Basin and Fergus counties, there is the potential for some small streams to run high, ponding of water in fields, and even some minor city flooding where storm drains are clogged this week. Overall, any flooding that does develop should be minor, with no flooding expected on any rivers at this time. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 41 57 47 62 / 80 10 0 0 CTB 39 55 42 59 / 10 0 0 10 HLN 37 58 40 65 / 20 10 10 0 BZN 37 63 40 71 / 50 10 10 0 WYS 28 53 26 59 / 60 10 10 0 DLN 38 62 40 70 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 34 61 41 66 / 20 10 0 0 LWT 38 55 40 60 / 20 10 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Toole and Liberty- Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County-Northern High Plains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Western and Central Chouteau County.