textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow levels falling this evening through Monday morning will bring snow to the mountains, and a rain and snow mix at lower elevations.

- There will be breezy to gusty winds in Southwest MT through tonight.

- Temperatures cool Monday through the week, but will stay above normal.

- There will be slight chances for precipitation in Southwest MT Wednesday.

UPDATE

/Issued 832 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026/

Not many changes have been made with this evening's update. However, there are a few minor changes and some things to note that I would like to point out. For one, dry air has been a bit more difficult to overcome than some of the models would have liked to suggest earlier this evening. While not uncommon, this has resulted in some lower precipitation totals at the lower elevations reflected in this forecast. Secondly, there has been a bit of a trend to show a band of heavier precipitation along and south of the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains. Current radar appears to be showing the beginning stages of this band's development, though as of 830PM it is rather disorganized and wide. Should this band narrow and intensify (which wouldn't be too surprising to me), I would expect a narrow (20-30 miles wide) band where the precipitation overachieves a bit, with lower amounts than forecast further north of this band. Hesitant to draw anything into the grids quite yet, but this could be an area to watch for some enhanced impacts late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Ludwig

DISCUSSION

/Issued 832 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Precipitation will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening as better upper-level forcing moves in. Currently, mild afternoon temperatures have kept the precipitation type to rain so far today at and below pass level. Rain will transition to snow in the mountains once the sun goes down and temperatures cool. A mid level front will move into Central MT later this evening which will bring widespread rain over the lower elevations across North- Central MT. A Pacific cold front will bring widespread rain/snow across Southwest MT valleys late tonight through Monday morning. A mid level jet will also bring breezy to gusty winds to Southwest MT At lower elevations, precipitation will start out as rain and transition to wet snow/a rain and snow mix Monday morning. Marginal morning lows hovering just above or below freezing will make snow struggle to accumulate, but light accumulations are expected if snow accumulates. Coverage in precipitation decreases mid to late Monday morning. The trough still passing through Monday will allow for isolated snow showers to persist for the rest of the day Monday.

Behind this system, cooler air moves in for the week. However, temperatures will remain above average through the week. An upper-level wave in California Wednesday will send a wave of light snow to Southwest MT, mainly south of I-90.

Towards the end of next week, ensembles hint at a broader trough forming along the west coast. However there remains a good bit of variation on timing and evolution of this trough, so details on precipitation chances remain uncertain.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow Tonight Into Monday:

The main uncertainty in the forecast for snow Monday morning is how much light snow accumulates at lower elevations. The mid levels cool off pretty well overnight into Monday morning which will allow the transitions to snow. However, surface temperatures and wet bulb temperatures are hovering just at freezing. It will depend on if the convergence zone is strong enough to have snow fall at a quick enough rate to freeze ground and pavements. Right now, it does seem likely some light snow will end up accumulating Monday morning, but only up to 2 inches. If snow begins to accumulate quicker, then a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed. The main impact will be winter driving conditons for the Monday morning commute.

Across Southwest MT, the Pacific front passage looks to happen early Monday morning. A little instability over the area does pose an isolated threat to convective snow showers/snow squalls. However, the lack of strong cold air advection/frontogenesis will likely limit this threat to mountain passes. Isolated snow showers Monday afternoon will also bring an isolated threat for heavier snow showers/snow squalls.

For the mountains, recent trends have down trended snow for Marias Pass with the better moisture band setting up across Central MT. Better probabilities for 6" of snow look to be in the Little Belts and Judith's, with a 70% chance probability. -Wilson

AVIATION

09/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail at the KCTB and KHVR terminals during this TAF Period. However at the KCTB terminal there is a 15 - 30% chance for snow between now and 09/15Z. At the KHVR terminal there is a 15 - 30% chance for snow between now and 10/00Z. During the majority of this TAF Period at all but the KCTB and KHVR terminals a combination of snow and rain will reduce visibility to at least MVFR-levels with isolated snow showers occurring after 09/18Z. At all but the KEKS, KCTB, KGTF, and KHVR terminals visibility will be reduced to at least IFR-levels. At the KLWT terminal visibility and ceilings will be reduced to at least LIFR-levels during the middle of this TAF Period. At the KLWT terminal between 10/00Z and the end of the TAF period there is a 25% chance for snow showers. Between now and 09/12Z there will be isolated instances of low- level wind shear and mountain wave turbulence across Southwestern Montana. There will be mountain obscuration across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana during the majority of this TAF Period. -IG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 34 45 25 46 / 90 80 0 0 CTB 30 45 23 44 / 30 20 0 0 HLN 31 43 22 43 / 100 50 0 0 BZN 32 43 19 42 / 90 70 10 0 WYS 25 36 4 34 / 100 90 20 10 DLN 31 43 19 41 / 70 40 0 0 HVR 29 44 23 46 / 30 40 10 0 LWT 29 38 20 41 / 100 100 30 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for East Glacier Park Region-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.