textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through at least the middle of next week.

- There will be the potential for areas of elevated fire weather concerns on Monday due to breezy winds and low relative humidity values.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1140 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

The upper-level ridge will continue its slow eastward movement, allowing for an extended period of dry and warm conditions for Montana. A weak shortwave on Monday will cause breezy winds in central and northern MT with the breeziest winds impacting the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. Due to lower RH values (<25% for most of the region) occurring at the same time as the breezy winds, there will be the potential for areas of elevated fire weather concerns.

As the upper-level ridge builds back up, there will be areas of breezy westerly winds on Tuesday. Beyond that, the upper-level ridge will keep winds mild across the region through Thursday. Although temperatures remain unseasonably warm, there will be a cool off of around 5-10 degrees on Tuesday. Temperatures then remain fairly consistent through at least Thursday as the upper-level ridge continues to impact the region.

Although the temperatures continue to be warm on Friday, it looks like it could be the transition day for a pattern shift in the weather due to an upper-level low developing over the PNW. Conditions then look wetter and cooler during the weekend, with even the potential for some minor mountain snow accumulations. However, confidence still remains low in this scenario due to the amount of time until Friday and the weekend. - ESH

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

There is high confidence in temperatures reaching the low 80s across many lower elevation locations on Monday with some locations, including Great Falls and Helena, expected to get within 5 degrees of the daily record. -thor

For elevated fire weather concerns in north and central Montana Monday afternoon, there is a 70% chance or greater for sustained winds greater than or equal to 15 mph and RH (relative humidity) values of less than or equal to 25%. However, due to fuel condition not being critical, products are not being considered at this time. - esh

Regarding the potential pattern shift next weekend, there have been some runs of both the GFS and ECMWF that have pointed towards mountain snow with an occasional run suggesting even some lower elevation snow in Southwest Montana. Because there is still a bit of a "windshield wiper" effect going on between model runs, with one run being more robust on the snow potential and the next one taking it away, it is highly recommended that folks take any mention of snow with a grain of salt until we get closer to next weekend. A pattern shift towards cooler and wetter conditions is possible, but confidence in any one scenario is low. -thor

AVIATION

04/00Z TAF Period.

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with a few passing high clouds over the region. There is a small chance for smoke to become trapped under the inversion overnight at KHLN, but it will depend on how much smoke is produced from the prescribed fires this evening. -Wilson

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 40 77 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 36 71 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 42 78 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 39 78 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 31 74 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 41 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 37 74 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 41 77 52 83 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.