textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend, with readings cooling to near normal on Monday and Tuesday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from the weekend through much of next work week.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging over the Northern Rockies will continue to flatten through Saturday night as longwave troughing amplifies over the eastern 2/3rd of Canada, with longwave troughing carving out much of the eastern CONUS through the upcoming work week. This will lead to predominately westerly flow on Saturday over the Northern Rockies shifting to the northwest from Sunday through next Friday, with numerous embedded shortwaves diving south to southeast within the northwest flow. Above normal high temperatures through the weekend will fall to near or slightly below normal on Monday and Tuesday as a backdoor cold front pushes through North Central and Southwest Montana. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will exist through the weekend and much of the upcoming work week, with Wednesday/Wednesday night likely having the lowest coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will climb back above normal form the middle through end of the upcoming work week as a warm front spreads east to northeast across the region. - Moldan

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Due to a lack of atmospheric moisture, showers and thunderstorms this weekend are expected to be weak, and chances for precipitation, while present, will be low. The highest chances for precipitation on Saturday are in the evening, with a 15% chance of 0.05" of moisture in the higher elevations. Chances move down into the lower elevations and increase in the higher elevations on Sunday evening, with a 10% chance of 0.05" of moisture in the lower elevations and a 20% chance in the higher elevations across Southwest and Central MT. -Dzomba

AVIATION

01/18Z TAF Period.

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 0118/0218 TAF period as upper level ridging drifts southeast over the Northern Rockies. A weak front moving south from Canada during the morning hours on Saturday will bring lowering CIGS and increasing chances for showers, mainly to the plains terminals of Central and North Central Montana beyond 18z Saturday. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 41 69 45 73 / 0 10 30 10 CTB 42 66 41 73 / 0 30 50 0 HLN 40 72 43 73 / 0 20 20 20 BZN 35 72 39 72 / 0 0 20 20 WYS 28 64 32 66 / 0 10 10 20 DLN 36 71 41 71 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 42 69 41 75 / 0 20 30 0 LWT 40 67 40 69 / 0 20 30 20

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.