textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures continue this afternoon, with a gradual warm up expected through Friday.

- A dry week with low end chances for precipitation returning early next week.

- Breezy winds can bring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 149 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Northwest flow aloft remains the dominant upper-level pattern over the next few days as a ridge builds along the West coast. With the ridge gradually building through the week, temperatures will also gradually build throughout the week. Dry PWATs along with weak forcing will keep the region dry through the week.

Heading into Friday and the weekend, this ridge begins to flatten, increasing winds aloft. Deep daytime mixing will allow these breezy winds to mix down to the surface Friday and Saturday. Deep mixing will also help bring afternoon humidities down into the teens. The hot, breezy, and dry condtions will allow for an increase in fire weather to elevated to critical.

Westerly flow aloft persists into the beginning of next week, but low end chances chances for precipitation is trending mostly drier until better forcing from a trough moves in Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

One thing that remains uncertain is the timing and location of the breezier winds Friday. Some solutions have a broader 700mb jet Friday afternoon, some have a more localized jet, and some push off the breezier winds to Saturday. This affects the overall fire weather risk threat. However, there remains good confidence for at least more elevated fire weather Friday and Saturday due to the combination of dry, hot, and breezy conditions. Where the better winds set up will determine the areas more at risk for critical fire weather. -Wilson

AVIATION

05/00Z TAF Period

Slantwise visibility upon ascent and descent will continue to be reduced across the Northern Rockies due to regional wildfire smoke, with periods of low-VFR VIS at terminals across Southwest Montana. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail throughout the duration of the 0500/0600 TAF period.

For KGTF: No concerns over the next 24 hours for cross winds as winds will remain light and variable, with the probability for a 15 kt cross wind of close to zero. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 48 86 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 47 82 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 48 86 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 46 85 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 35 80 39 88 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 45 83 48 91 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 49 86 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 46 81 49 86 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES