textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow will fall this afternoon into Monday along the Continental Divide with portions of the rest of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana seeing a light rain/snow mix tonight through Monday.

- It will cool down for Monday and Tuesday before briefly warming up on Wednesday.

- There is the potential for a spring storm with widespread precipitation Wednesday night through Friday.

UPDATE

/Issued 625 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026/

Early evening update has been published, with the main change being to re-run diurnal temperatures to account for the limited warming that occurred today, most notably over the plains of Central and North Central Montana where some locations fell short of the forecasted high by some 5 to 10 degrees due to mid-level cloudiness and persistent north to east surface winds. Guidance has been struggling with the aforementioned surface wind direction over the plains, which does cause some concern with Monday's forecasted highs as the latest forecast is relying on winds shifting and strengthening from the southwest to west tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will push from north to south across the area from the mid- to late morning (North Central Montana) through late afternoon (Southwest Montana) hours on Monday. Otherwise the remainder of the forecast remains on track, with precipitation through the night primarily focused along the Continental Divide north of the Montana Hwy 200 corridor and also east of the US Hwy 87 corridor from Great Falls to Havre. - Moldan

DISCUSSION

/Issued 625 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon there is upper-level zonal flow over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Tonight an upper-level shortwave moves across the Canadian/Montana Border. This shortwave brings with it a Pacific Cold Front to North-central Montana. This shortwave will bring snow to the Rocky Mountain Front this afternoon through the day on Monday. The snow will be the heaviest tonight into Monday morning. Across the plains of North-central Montana isolated locations will see light rain this afternoon into tonight. On Monday the upper-level shortwave trough continues to track eastward across the Canadian/Montana Border. This will bring rain/snow showers to isolated locations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Due to the cold front passage, it will be colder across North-central Montana on Monday with well-below seasonal average temperatures expected along the Hi-line. The cold front will eventually make it to Southwestern Montana Monday afternoon and allow isolated snow showers to form in Southwestern Montana. Due to a strong surface pressure gradient it will be windy on Monday with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and in Southwestern Montana.

On Tuesday upper-level zonal flow remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow the area to dry out with cool temperatures across the area. On Wednesday an upper-level ridge forms over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. This will briefly allow temperatures to warm up with mostly dry weather. Wednesday evening an upper-level trough (closed low) begins to move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This upper-level trough will remain over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana through Friday. This upper-level trough will bring cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. The precise track of this upper-low remains uncertain at this time. See the Forecast Confidence & Scenarios section for details. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

For snow tonight into Monday there is a 60 - 80% chance for 4 inches of snow or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front. As a result a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front from 8 PM tonight through 10 AM Monday morning. Across the mountains of Central and Southwestern Montana there is a 30 - 50% chance for 2 inches of snow or greater tonight through Monday.

On Monday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 50 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. On Monday across the higher elevations of Southwestern Montana there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. On Monday across the north-south oriented valleys of Southwestern Montana there is a 30 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater.

For the Wednesday night through Friday system there remains uncertainty in precipitation types due to uncertainty in the low track. Clusters and ensembles currently exhibit large differences in the track and speed of the upper-level low. If the low tracks further south than currently the deterministic models have it, that will reduce precipitation amounts across North-central Montana. If the low tracks further north that would increase precipitation amounts across North-central Montana. -IG

AVIATION

30/06Z TAF Period

Mountain obscuration will continue across the Northern Rockies through 00-06z Tuesday, with improving visibility from northwest to southeast thereafter. Low to mid-level cloud cover will generally bring MVFR/low-VFR CIGS through much of the TAF period; however, a short period of LIFR/IFR CIGS can't be ruled out at the KCTB terminal prior to northwest winds increasing in wake of a southward surging cold front. An area of rain/snow orientated from southwest to northeast will slowly sag south from Central and North Central Montana during the morning hours on Monday to Southwest and Central Montana by the afternoon hours as a cold front surges south. This cold front will bring a wind shift to the north, with a 9-15hr period of strong and gusty winds. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 37 43 16 46 / 40 30 10 0 CTB 23 33 10 41 / 20 30 20 0 HLN 35 46 18 49 / 30 50 10 0 BZN 36 52 18 48 / 10 70 60 10 WYS 33 52 23 43 / 0 50 70 50 DLN 40 55 20 52 / 0 30 30 10 HVR 32 41 13 43 / 60 20 0 0 LWT 33 41 13 40 / 40 70 20 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM MDT Monday for East Glacier Park Region.