textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant shift to cooler and wetter conditions will occur on Friday.

- Rain develops tonight west of I-15 with rain and mountian snow early Friday and a transition to lower elevation snow by Friday evening before precipitation ends.

- Gusty to locally strong northwest winds develop across north-central Montana on Friday with much cooler temperatures spreading across the area by Friday afternoon.

- Drier but continued cooler than average conditions are expected for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 129 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

A significant shift from the ongoing mild/benign weather is on track for Friday as an upper level trough moving onshore into CA/NV today lifts north across MT ahead of an eastward moving trough from northern Pacific.

The trough lifting out of CA/NV will spread unusually deep moisture for this time of year (PWATs>200% of normal) north into the area tonight through Friday morning with precipitation developing across western portions of the forecast area (mainly W of I-15) tonight as this moisture is drawn north along a deformation axis across the Northern Rockies. This precipitation will be a mix of decaying convection that develops over the Great Basin this afternoon with additional lift provided by upper jet energy lifting north from the Great Basin as well as in advance of the trough arriving from the NW.

The upper trough approaching from the NW crosses the Northern Rockies Friday afternoon, shifting the axis of precipitation east across the area while also bringing cooler air aloft and lowering snow levels before precipitation decreases from west to east Friday evening. Cooling aloft will support an initial drop in snow levels from above 9000 ft to around 6000-7000 ft across most of the area by Friday afternoon, resulting in a change to wet snow over the mountains. A secondary push of lower level cooling surges southeast out of AB as the northern upper trough axis emerges east of the Rockies and with surface low pressure deepening across eastern MT. Snow levels quickly lower to 3000-4000 ft across N-central MT as early as late Friday morning across Glacier county and by late Friday afternoon across eastern portions of north-central/central MT and Friday evening across SW MT valleys. Gusty to locally strong northwest winds develop with the surge of cooler air across N- central MT Friday, driven mostly by the surface pressure gradient behind the intensifying low to the east.

Mainly dry conditions follow for the weekend into at least early next week with temperatures remaining somewhat cooler than average for late October with afternoon temps in the mid-upper 40s and overnight lows in the 20s. A more unsettled period may develop by mid to late next week as the next trough digging southward along the west coast begins to shift inland, though there there is still considerable uncertainty with timing and details at this point. Hoenisch

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Precipitation Impacts Tonight Through Friday Morning:

Instances of locally moderate/heavy precipitation rates are likely tonight through Friday morning with some embedded convective elements and even some isolated thunder possible.

Precipitation Type and Winter Weather Impacts:

There is still some uncertainty in the how quickly the lower level cooling can change precipitation to snow across lower elevations of north-central MT Friday afternoon. For most areas outside of the mountains, the transition to wet snow will occur with still warm ground temps and little opportunity for accumulation before precipitation ends Friday evening. Across Judith Basin and Fergus counties however there is some concern for the transition to snow coinciding with gusty northwest winds and potential for upslope enhancement, particularly for near Judith Gap, Lewistown and areas from Raynesford to Geyser. With potential for a quick 1-2 inches of snowfall occurring near/shortly after sunset Friday and potential for gusty winds to add to visibility reduction, winter weather advisories were added for these areas.

Wind Impacts:

Strongest northwest winds on Friday are expected near the Canadian border and areas where winds are enhanced near the Island Mtn Ranges, particularly the Sweet Grass Hills, Bears Paw, Judith and Snowy Ranges, where probabilities for gusts in excess of 55 mph are 60-80% and a High Wind Warning has been issued. Gusts in excess of 40 mph are likely across most of north-cenrtal MT Friday afternoon, which when combined with temperatures falling to the 30s will add to the raw conditions for those outdoors. Hoenisch

AVIATION

23/00z TAF Period

Initial concern this TAF period will be for rain developing tonight from south to north across the region. Ceilings slowly lower as the rain develops, eventually resulting in mountain obscuration by morning. A cold front then moves southward over the plains Friday morning and into Central and Southwest Montana valleys early in the afternoon. A sharp wind shift with gusty winds will accompany the front, along with even lower ceilings. Rain transitions to snow in many areas behind the cold front, though confidence in how quick this transition occurs is lower confidence across SW MT. Gusty winds will be strong at times over the plains through the afternoon Friday. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 42 52 27 45 / 10 90 70 0 CTB 36 48 22 44 / 10 100 0 0 HLN 43 53 23 46 / 20 100 70 0 BZN 40 55 22 43 / 20 100 100 0 WYS 32 45 17 46 / 60 100 90 0 DLN 42 49 26 45 / 80 100 90 0 HVR 42 57 25 46 / 0 90 80 0 LWT 45 62 23 42 / 0 100 100 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 3 PM MDT Friday for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Hill County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 3 AM MDT Saturday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Snowy and Judith Mountains.

High Wind Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for Fergus County below 4500ft.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to midnight MDT Friday night for Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County.