textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow will return to the mountains of Southwestern Montana Wednesday into Thursday with isolated lower-elevations seeing a rain/snow mix.

- It will be warm across Central and Southwestern Montana through the middle of the week with a brief cooldown to end the work week.

- It will be windy across North-central Montana Friday afternoon through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 249 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

On Monday and Tuesday the upper-level ridge remains over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep warm and mostly dry weather across the area. Light snow will linger in the mountains of Southwestern Montana through the day today. On Wednesday through Thursday an upper-level trough moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This trough splits and sends most of it energy south into the great Basin. This will lead to the greatest precipitation being in Southwestern Montana. The upper-level trough will also cool down temperatures slightly. There remains some uncertainty with how far north into North-central Montana precipitation will spread. However along the Rocky Mountain Front this system will bring some light snow.

On Friday the upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep cool temperatures across the area with mostly dry weather across the area. Friday afternoon/evening the surface pressure gradient begins to increase. This will increase winds across North-central Montana. On Saturday the upper-level flow will be weak and northerly. Due to a strong pressure gradient, it will be windy across North-central Montana on Saturday. It will also be warm and dry on Saturday. Since it will be windy and warm on Saturday, there are Fire Weather Concerns see the Fire Weather Section for details. On Sunday an upper-level trough moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern. This combined with strong low-level and mid-level winds will bring windy conditions to the area on Sunday with warm and dry weather for lower-elevations with mountain snow. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wednesday through Thursday there is a 40 - 80% chance for 6 inches of snowfall or greater across the mountains of Southwestern Montana. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 40% chance for 4 inches of snow or greater across the Little Belts and Big Belt Mountains. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 30 - 60% chance for liquid precipitation of a tenth of an inch or greater across the valleys of Southwestern Montana. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 10 - 40% chance for a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation across the plains of North-central Montana.

For winds Friday through Sunday there remains some uncertainty in the upper-level pattern which is leading to large uncertainty in how windy it will be. However in the wind prone areas of along the Rocky Mountain Front and the Highway 200 Corridor between Great Falls and Stanford there is high confidence in strong winds Friday evening through Sunday. -IG

AVIATION

03/00Z TAF Period

Mid level cloudiness wanes this evening across Southwest Montana, resulting in just a few high clouds for the through the overnight across the region. Diurnally driven winds return late Tuesday morning, particularly across the plains. By late afternoon the first signs of an approaching system from the west arrives in the form of increasing cloudiness along the Continental Divide. -AM

FIRE WEATHER

Well above normal temperatures, dry conditions, and strong to very strong winds over the upcoming weekend are expected to lead to elevated fire weather conditions over the grasslands of Central and North Central Montana; most notably along and west of the Interstate 15 corridor and along the Montana Hwy 200 and US 87 corridors between Rogers Pass and Lewistown where winds will be exceptionally strong. Additionally, HDWI indices will climb to between the 90th and 95th Percentile of climatology by Saturday and/or Sunday across Fire Weather Zones 113, 115, and 117. Given mild and overall dry winter season across much of the Northern Rockies, and with grass remaining dormant/pre-greenup, fire weather concerns will be on the rise. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 30 65 36 57 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 30 60 34 52 / 0 0 0 10 HLN 29 61 32 55 / 0 0 0 30 BZN 25 61 29 58 / 10 0 0 10 WYS 14 47 20 43 / 30 0 0 20 DLN 26 60 31 53 / 10 0 0 20 HVR 27 63 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 29 61 35 57 / 0 0 0 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.