textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild and dry through Friday.

- Gusty winds and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms accompany a cold front sweeping east across the region Friday evening.

- Much cooler temperatures follow this weekend with windy conditions persisting on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 314 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Anti-cyclonicly curved southwesterly flow aloft around large-scale ridging centered east of the area will support sunny, warm and dry conditions today. Afternoon temperatures today and again tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 80s for many areas with a few locations across north-central MT reaching the upper 80s on Friday.

An upper level trough from the Pacific, moving onshore tomorrow, will send a cold front across the Northern Rockies Friday evening with gusty south winds developing late Friday ahead of the front and an abrupt end to the warmth as gusty west winds and much cooler air follow the frontal passage Friday night through Saturday. Precipitation is fairly limited, though a brief period of showers with lowering snow levels is likely to occur following the frontal passage over the higher elevations in Glacier NP with some minor accumulation (up to 1") possible over Logan Pass and elevations above 6000ft. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may also accompany the front across north-central MT where little or no meaningful precipitation expected.

The embedded shortwave disturbance responsible for the cold front lifts from NW MT into AB Friday night with gusty west winds persisting across much of the area through Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will be around 20F cooler than those of Friday with afternoon temperatures generally in the mid to upper 60s. A progressive upper level pattern looks to prevail into next week with several embedded Pacific weather disturbances tracking into the western US. Temperatures should remain near to slightly below seasonal averages, though there is still considerable uncertainty with timing and extent of moisture with these features.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wind continues to be the main concern in the late Friday through Saturday morning period. There remains potential for enhanced winds if/where any convection develops along the cold front Friday evening. While convection would locally increase the likelihood of gusts in excess of 50 mph, strong pressure rises behind the front should support fairly widespread gusts in excess of 40 mph across north-central MT in the wake of the front.

A High Wind Watch has been issued for areas east of the Northern Rocky Mtn Front through eastern Glacier and western Toole counties for Friday night through Saturday morning. The probability for gusts exceeding 58 mph has increased to above 70% across eastern Glacier county including the Cut Bank area. This is supported by favorable conditions for a period mountain wave enhancement Friday night as a mid level wind maximum moves across the area just behind the shortwave lifting into AB. Hoenisch

AVIATION

24/12z TAF Period.

With the exception of some local patchy fog/stratus near KWYS this morning, mainly clear skies and VFR conditions prevail across the area through the TAF period. South to southeast surface winds increase some across the area later this afternoon through this evening. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 84 57 87 50 / 0 0 0 20 CTB 78 49 82 44 / 0 0 0 20 HLN 82 50 84 46 / 0 0 0 20 BZN 79 45 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 70 34 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 77 44 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 83 56 89 49 / 0 0 0 10 LWT 82 53 84 47 / 0 0 0 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains.