textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds decrease overnight tonight and tomorrow. - Well above average to near record warm temperatures continue through Wednesday before some cooler/closer to average temperatures for the end of the week. - Dry weather continues through the next week.

UPDATE

/Issued 901 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026/

557 pm Update - Winds continue to diminish for most plains locations this evening, so the high wind warnings were canned early for all locations east of I15. I let the warnings continue along the Rocky Mountain Front southward towards the Nevada Mountains due to lingering localized strong and gusty winds. There looks to be one more wave of winds to move through these areas again later tonight into Tuesday morning. Further evaluation will be done over the next couple of hours to decide whether the high wind warning will need to be extended into the overnight hours. - RCG

850 pm Update - Another round of stronger winds look to move through the Rocky Mountain Front and nearby plains again later tonight. The high wind warning was extended through 8 am MST for these areas. Otherwise, a passing shortwave will maintain breezy to windy conditions and variable cloudiness and even a few sprinkles and mountain flurries tonight. - RCG

DISCUSSION

/Issued 901 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Gusty winds have been present across the area today as an upper level jet streak rides over a developing upper level ridge over the west coast of the United States. While this upper level jet streak will remain over the area through tomorrow afternoon, the upper level ridge to our west will continue to strengthen. As it does so, it will force our upper level flow to turn more northerly, which will reduce the risk of mountain waves and strong surface wind gusts. But aside from the reduced winds, not much will change with the weather in the short term, with breezy afternoon winds and temperatures well above normal/near records through Wednesday under the influence of this ridge.

Temperatures will fall a bit on Thursday as a quick shortwave swings through the area, bringing a surface cold front through the area. Behind this front, some cooler air will work in from Canada, bringing temperatures back closer to (but still above) average across the area, with some gusty winds in Blaine and Fergus Counties. Temperatures will remain closer to average Thursday and Friday, but will begin to rise again as we head into the weekend and early next week as the upper level ridge to our west amplifies.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

With the upper level ridge to our west, confidence is high in the forecast for the next week. Outside of a stray shower, expect no meaningful precipitation over the next 7 days along with the above average temperatures. Ludwig

AVIATION

13/06Z TAF Period

The potential for strong winds and mountain wave activity will continue along the Rocky Mountain Front through at least 13/12Z with surface-level gusts up to 50kts possible at KCTB. Across north-central Montana, surface level winds will be breezy with gusts up to 35kts possible at KGTF, KHVR, and KLWT with the main concern being LLWS as the strongest winds are expected to remain just above the surface. Low to mid-level clouds will settle in across the region through the majority of the period with periods of mountain obscuration possible along the Continental Divide and portions of central Montana. -thor

FIRE WEATHER

Main concern today will be grassy areas over North Central MT. Strong wind, combined with humidity in the teens and 20s could make any fire starts in grassy areas difficult to contain. Humidity will remain low through Wednesday, but overall the winds should not be quite as strong on Tue/Wed. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 47 58 37 60 / 10 20 0 0 CTB 41 54 36 57 / 10 10 0 0 HLN 39 54 32 52 / 10 10 0 0 BZN 33 52 28 52 / 0 10 0 0 WYS 12 37 8 39 / 0 10 0 0 DLN 31 51 28 51 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 38 51 30 52 / 20 10 0 0 LWT 43 54 35 60 / 20 30 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Tuesday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains.