textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy winds return across North Central Montana this today, but they should be weaker than they were on Tuesday. - Rounds of light snowfall expected across the higher terrain through the remainder of the work week, with a few heavy snow showers possible this morning across Southwestern Montana. - Aside from Thursday and Friday, well above average temperatures continue.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 333 AM MST Wed Jan 7 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Another breezy day is expected across North Central and Southwestern Montana as strong upper level winds remain over the area. While these winds remain aloft, I dont expect the winds to translate to the surface as efficiently tomorrow for a few reasons that I will go into detail below in the confidence section, but upper level dynamics seem slightly less favorable for the downward transport of these winds today. Aside from the winds, a weak disturbance in the flow aloft will bring some increased snow shower activity, particularly across Southwestern Montana where some heavier snow showers may be possible early this morning.

Beyond today, broad upper level troughing will set up across the Northern Rockies and Plains, which will bring some slightly cooler, but still near to above average, temperatures to the area for Thursday and Friday along with some light mountain snowfall along the Continental Divide and the higher terrain of Southwestern Montana.

Upper level ridging will quickly return on Friday, however, bringing a return to well above average temperatures and generally dry conditions across the Treasure State for the weekend. However, a passing trough on Sunday may bring another round of breezy weather to the plains on Sunday. Behind this trough, upper level flow will increase again early next week, setting the stage for another prolonged period of breezy winds for the first half of the work week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Winds today: A persistent upper level jet streak remains over the area today, with winds aloft only slightly weaker than they were on Tuesday. With this in mind, there are a few new limiting factors that should keep any wind gusts over 55 mph fairly localized. Chiefly (aside from the slightly weaker wind speeds aloft) will be the shape and position of the jet streak, as we will be in the right entrance region of the jet, which tends to be an area of upward vertical motion. While this will help fuel some stronger snow showers across Southwestern Montana this morning, this upward motion will make it harder for the winds aloft to migrate to the surface, though a stronger mountain wave could still force them to the surface along the Rocky Mountain Front. With this in mind, I have elected to not issue any new High Wind Warnings, as I just dont have 80% confidence in any one area hitting 40 mph sustained or 58 mph gusts from the winds today. I cant rule out Cut Bank being one of these areas that bucks the trend. While the NBM does give Cut Bank around a 60% chance of seeing high wind criteria, I think it is a bit bullish given the dynamics at play (though Id still give them a 30-40% chance of seeing a strong wind gust or two personally). Ludwig

AVIATION

07/12Z TAF Period

Gusty winds and mountain wave turbulence will persist through the TAF period, strongest over the plains of Central and North-central Montana. Snow primarily confined to the Continental Divide spreads eastward into the region early Wednesday morning, becoming more showery in nature through the late morning across Southwest and Central Montana valleys. Brief instances of moderate snow showers cannot be ruled out at KBZN, KHLN, and KEKS Wednesday morning. Mountains will continue to be obscured through the early morning. Winds will continue to be gusty across the Plains, with gusts to 35-45kts expected at KCTB, KHVR, KLWT, and KGTF through the day today. -AM/Ludwig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 41 22 37 22 / 10 0 0 10 CTB 35 18 34 19 / 0 0 0 10 HLN 40 19 34 21 / 50 10 10 20 BZN 42 18 32 15 / 50 20 20 10 WYS 31 9 24 1 / 80 60 60 20 DLN 39 18 31 15 / 20 10 10 0 HVR 38 17 34 16 / 10 0 0 10 LWT 42 19 35 18 / 10 0 0 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for East Glacier Park Region.