textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average warmth through Friday.

- Gusty winds develop Friday ahead of a strong cold front to sweep east across the area Friday evening/overnight.

- Windy and cooler this weekend with seasonably cool and unsettled conditions persisting into next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 305 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

A mid-level shortwave disturbance and its associated moisture will continue to track northeast across eastern MT today with some lingering showers and cloud-cover still this morning across eastern portions of central and southwest MT before clouds decrease this afternoon. Unseasonably warm temperatures persist through Friday with warmest readings still on track for Thursday and Friday as southwesterly mid-level flow increases ahead of an incoming large scale trough from the northern Pacific. Gusty south to southwest winds develop late Friday ahead of an approaching cold front with the incoming upper level trough, with a few showers and possibly some thunderstorms as the front passes Friday evening/overnight. Windy and cooler conditions follow on Saturday with locally stronger winds expected along areas adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front. A faster zonal (W-E) progression of weather systems looks to follow through early next week, maintaining temperatures closer to or even slightly below seasonal averages while embedded disturbances bring some chances for precipitation with low confidence in timing or extent of moisture still at this point.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wind continues to be the main concern with the approach and passage of the frontal system late Friday and Friday night as well as in the fast westerly flow that follows late Friday night through early Saturday. The Friday evening arrival of the Pacific cold front may meet a very warm/dry and somewhat unstable airmass still in place ahead of the front east of the Rockies, which could support enhanced frontal winds as the front sweeps east across north-central MT, especially if any convection (showers/isolated thunderstorms) develop in association with the frontal passage. Strong pressure rises are also indicated which should contribute to gusts exceeding 40-50 mph following the front across north-central MT Friday night. Mountain wave enhancement will likely also play a role later Friday night through early Saturday with strongest winds along the Rocky Mtn Front and a 30-50% probability for gusts higher than 55 mph as far east as Cut Bank and Great Falls. Hoenisch

AVIATION

23/12Z TAF Period.

Mid-level clouds, a few showers and mountain top obscuration across eastern portions of central and southwest MT early this morning will lift out with a departing weather disturbance by late this morning. Through 16z, MVFR cigs/vis will mainly be limited to areas near the KWYS and KLWT terminals. VFR conditions prevail otherwise across the area with westerly surface winds increasing some this afternoon before subsiding this evening. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 79 50 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 74 46 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 77 47 81 51 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 73 45 78 46 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 63 31 70 34 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 72 43 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 81 48 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 76 50 81 53 / 30 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.