textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy condtions pick up Monday, lasting through Friday, with winds peaking on Thursday.

- Chinook winds will bring warmer temperatures through the work week.

- There will be daily light to moderate mountain snow through the week, with light rain/snow at lower elevations.

- Colder temperatures look to return next weekend.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1201 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Shifting to a zonal flow aloft pattern early Monday morning, stronger winds aloft start to move in. This persistent westerly flow aloft will bring in a few waves of a strong mid level jet. The first wave being on Monday. Models do keep trending the peak jet to move in the afternoon/evening, but windy conditions will likely start in the morning. There remains some concern for patchy blowing and drifting snow with winds, but for now it seems to be more of an isolated threat since the immediate eastern foothills had time to settle the snow yesterday afternoon from reaching above freezing. The strong Chinook winds will bring back warm temperatures, which will last through the week. The westerly flow aloft will also create consistent snowfall over the Continental Divide through the week.

The gusty winds Monday dies down early Tuesday morning, but the persistent mid level jet around will still keep winds windy throughout the day. An upper level disturbance passing through early Tuesday will help bring light rain/snow to the lower elevations.

Wednesday, the mid level jet picks back up through Friday, which will bring the strongest window for strong winds across much of the region. A cold frontal passage will bring a quick band of snow at lower elevations Wednesday morning. Lingering snow showers behind the front in Southwest MT bring the concern for a few snow squalls in the afternoon.

Winds will die down for the weekend. There is a bit of a spread in how the next weekend's weather system goes. The European Model is the colder solution as it brings the better cold airmass and some snow from Canada southward. The GFS keeps the snow/colder air more confined to the international border, keeping temperatures a bit warmer across the board.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Winds for Monday:

Although the mid level jet does peak to 60 kts Monday afternoon and evening, it looks like these winds will struggle to mix down to the surface. Forecast soundings don't show strong daytime mixing in the afternoon. This is probably due to the increasing cloud cover during this time being a limiting factor. There does look to be a smaller pressure gradient forming in the afternoon, but it does not appear to be overly strong or lasting a long time enough to have a nudge to a higher confidence. Since there's not high confidence in high winds, I have cancelled the High Wind Watch. I can't rule out a few isolated marginal high wind gusts though.

Winds Wednesday Through Friday:

Good confidence remains in there being strong winds spreading farther across the region during this time frame. The main uncertainty here is the timing of the strongest winds. This will ultimately determine where are the few lulls in strong winds. So far models still hint at Thursday having the peak winds. There's a 50-90% chance for 80 mph winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. Farther east towards Cut Bank, there's a 30% chance for them. Along the MT Highway 200 corridor in Cascade and Judith Basin Counties, there's a 40-70% chance for 58 mph winds Thursday. Wednesday's winds don't look to be as strong as Thursday's winds, but good confidence for strong winds lead to the issuance of a High Wind watch for the Rocky Mountain Front, and the Highway 200 corridor down through the I-90 corridor.

Snow This Week:

Light to moderate snow looks to remain on track for the Continental Divide on Monday through Tuesday morning. Better chances for more moderate snow arrives Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, where small amounts of instability will bring better chances for convective snow bands, mainly at Marias Pass. Therefore, the current Winter Weather Advisory remains on track.

Light accumulations are still expected across parts of the lower elevations Tuesday and Wednesday. The timing of the front Wednesday morning is important for the threat of convective snow bands/squalls along the frontal passage in Southwest MT. If it's earlier in the morning before sunrise, than the chances for convective snow decreases. If it's after sunrise, then that will allow for instability to build in for convective snow. Models do hint at some snow showers in the afternoon, which will be the best chances for snow squalls mainly across Southwest. There is also the slight concern for these snow showers/cold mixing strong mid level winds down with it. -Wilson

AVIATION

23/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail at area terminals through the TAF period under an increasing westerly mid-uppEr level flow across the Northern Rockies and MT. Mid-upper level moisture/clouds will also increase through today with precipitation and mountain obscuration developing this morning along northern portions of the Continental Divide. By this evening, some showers may begin to spread east across north-central and SW MT in association with an embedded Pacific front and bring some lower VFR cloud ceilings and potential for mountain obscuration. Gusty southwest winds develop at at most terminals by mid-day with gusts in excess of 30-35kts expected at KGTF and KCTB this afternoon. In addition to increasing potential for mountain wave turbulence across the area there will be opportunities for low-level wind shear across primarily southwest MT terminals. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 53 32 47 30 / 10 30 20 30 CTB 49 23 44 25 / 30 20 10 10 HLN 53 33 47 30 / 10 60 60 70 BZN 53 32 47 29 / 10 30 60 70 WYS 38 24 36 27 / 10 50 90 90 DLN 50 32 49 32 / 0 20 40 40 HVR 51 20 41 20 / 0 20 0 30 LWT 49 29 41 27 / 0 70 40 60

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for East Glacier Park Region.

High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region- Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys-Missouri Headwaters- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.