textproduct: Great Falls

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview:

Noticeably cooler air has settled into the Treasure State in the wake of a cold front that pushed through overnight. Temperatures as of early afternoon have generally struggled to reach the low to mid 60s thanks to this cooler air, which has also conveniently cleared out the smoke for most of the area, though some smoke does linger across Beaverhead, Madison, and Gallatin Counties this afternoon. Afternoon fair weather clouds have developed in this cooler air mass, but do not expect to see any precipitation from these clouds aside from a very isolated and short lived light rain shower.

This cooldown will be rather short lived, however, as mid to upper level westerly flow returns on Tuesday, which will allow temperatures to moderate back up to the still relatively pleasant mid to upper 70s for most population centers. As upper level ridging gradually builds back into the area, expect temperatures to rise here at the surface, with highs reaching the 90s for the lower elevations by Thursday. As temperatures rise, humidity will fall, with RH values likely to fall into the teens each afternoon.

Upper level ridging looks to break down late this week, which would result in some increased winds as it does so. Should this happen, critical fire weather conditions will be possible thanks to the continued dry air and increased winds. However, at this time there remains a lot of uncertainty as to just how this will play out.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Fire Weather Friday/Saturday: the main area of impactful uncertainty in the forecast at this time appears to be the potential for near critical to critical fire weather conditions Friday and/or Saturday. As the upper level ridge breaks down, a small jet streak looks to move overhead, which could have different effects depending on the size, strength, and exact path the jet streak takes. Most models at the moment seem to put the jet streak somewhere over Montana Friday, though the location/timing varies, with some, including the GFS, putting the jet streak in a way that would result in extremely low RH (in the single digits), and very deep thermal mixing that would bring down some 20-30 mph wind gusts. Other solutions would still likely be gusty, but would potentially not be as extremely dry. In any case, expect elevated fire weather conditions later this week, but just how elevated remains uncertain at this time. -Ludwig

DISCUSSION

/Issued 308 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Noticeably cooler air has settled into the Treasure State in the wake of a cold front that pushed through overnight. Temperatures as of early afternoon have generally struggled to reach the low to mid 60s thanks to this cooler air, which has also conveniently cleared out the smoke for most of the area, though some smoke does linger across Beaverhead, Madison, and Gallatin Counties this afternoon. Afternoon fair weather clouds have developed in this cooler air mass, but do not expect to see any precipitation from these clouds aside from a very isolated and short lived light rain shower.

This cooldown will be rather short lived, however, as mid to upper level westerly flow returns on Tuesday, which will allow temperatures to moderate back up to the still relatively pleasant mid to upper 70s for most population centers. As upper level ridging gradually builds back into the area, expect temperatures to rise here at the surface, with highs reaching the 90s for the lower elevations by Thursday. As temperatures rise, humidity will fall, with RH values likely to fall into the teens each afternoon.

Upper level ridging looks to break down late this week, which would result in some increased winds as it does so. Should this happen, critical fire weather conditions will be possible thanks to the continued dry air and increased winds. However, at this time there remains a lot of uncertainty as to just how this will play out.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Fire Weather Friday/Saturday: the main area of impactful uncertainty in the forecast at this time appears to be the potential for near critical to critical fire weather conditions Friday and/or Saturday. As the upper level ridge breaks down, a small jet streak looks to move overhead, which could have different effects depending on the size, strength, and exact path the jet streak takes. Most models at the moment seem to put the jet streak somewhere over Montana Friday, though the location/timing varies, with some, including the GFS, putting the jet streak in a way that would result in extremely low RH (in the single digits), and very deep thermal mixing that would bring down some 20-30 mph wind gusts. Other solutions would still likely be gusty, but would potentially not be as extremely dry. In any case, expect elevated fire weather conditions later this week, but just how elevated remains uncertain at this time. -Ludwig

AVIATION

04/00Z TAF Period

Predominantly VFR across the region. Some breezy winds remain for North-Central and Southwest MT impacting KHVR, KEKS, and KBZN until around 08Z tonight. Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce slant range and surface visibility down to 6SM in Southwest MT particularly in the valleys overnight.

For KGTF: Winds will lower to light and variable overnight but then pick up again after 20Z tomorrow afternoon with a prevailing direction out of the Northwest with occasional gusts up to 13KT to 14KT. Slight reductions to visibility down to 6SM due to smoke is expected. - Akins

FIRE WEATHER

Remaining concerns through the day today will include a cold front progressing southward over the plains as of writing this discussion early this morning, resulting in a gusty wind shift to a more northerly direction through the morning. A persistent breezy northwest wind along and east of US-87 will result in elevated fire weather conditions through the early evening. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 44 77 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 39 75 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 46 78 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 41 78 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 32 75 35 81 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 42 76 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 41 78 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 39 72 45 81 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.