textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds will continue across the Rocky Mountain Front through the weekend with the strongest winds expected Friday night through Saturday morning.

- Periods of light mountain snow are possible through the weekend with a chance for spotty lower elevation rain.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 311 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Northwest flow aloft with passing shortwaves will continue over the next few days bringing periods of light mountain snow and spotty lower elevation rain. Accompanying the shortwave on Friday evening will be gusty winds across north-central Montana through Saturday morning, with the strongest winds expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and other wind prone areas along the Northern Plains. Behind this shortwave, winds will moderate across the Northern Plains through the weekend but remain windy along the Rocky Mountain Front through at least Monday. Heading towards next week, temperatures continue to remain well above average with highs in the 50s expected across much of the lower elevation.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Strong Winds Friday/Saturday:

The latest run of the HREF points to a 50-60kt mid-level jet moving across north-central Montana late Friday into early Saturday which could bring the potential for high winds along the Rocky Mountain Front as well as the lower elevations of Judith Basin County.

One of the previous modes of uncertainty was that the mid-level jet might be moving too fast through the area to fully mix the stronger winds down to the surface. Updated model guidance has not fully eased these concerns, but with the first portion of the event now in view of some hi-res model data, confidence is gradually increasing in the potential for high winds.

Along the Rocky Mountain Front, confidence has trended more towards reaching high sustained wind criteria as opposed to high wind gust criteria. So there is lower confidence in wind gusts exceeding 75 mph but there is higher confidence in sustained winds above 40 mph.

For the lower elevations of Judith Basin County, there is growing confidence in the hi-res models for gap wind enhancement along Highway 200 between the Little Belts and Highwoods. Wind gusts, particularly in the Geyser area, could potentially reach 65 mph.

Looking at the full picture, hi-res model data only captures the first half of the event and does not go out far enough to capture the final 12 or so hours of the window for the strongest winds. With the remaining model data available, there is enough confidence to issue a High Wind Watch but not enough confidence to go straight to a High Wind Warning. For now, we will wait for additional hi- res model data to paint a clearer picture on whether high wind criteria will be met and what the exact timing will be of the event.

Freezing Rain Friday/Saturday:

There is a low chance for light freezing rain in portions of northern Blaine County Friday evening through Saturday morning. The main limiting factor will be dry air which may work to prevent a lot of the moisture in Blaine county from reaching the ground. Additionally, model guidance keeps shifting the main threat area to the east which means confidence keeps decreasing in freezing rain occurring along Highway 2. This is not to say it cannot happen as there is still a 10-20% chance for light freezing rain in the Turner area. But accumulations are not expected to exceed a glaze.

An additional area for concern Friday into Saturday will be along Marias Pass. Model soundings for the area show a 20-30% chance for light freezing rain at pass level which could make travel along the pass difficult at times. Right now, there is not enough confidence to warrant any products or concern but the entirety of the freezing rain potential falls under the category of low probability of occurring but high impact if it does occur. -thor

AVIATION

30/00Z TAF Period

Light precipitation remains over the mountains for most of the TAF period. Friday afternoon, there is a slight chance for light rain at lower elevations. However, VFR conditions should prevail with precipitation. There will be breezy west/southwest winds across the plains tomorrow, with windier conditions at KCTB. There will be periods of mountain obscuration from lower clouds and precipitation through the TAF period. -Wilson

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 32 50 39 55 / 10 10 0 0 CTB 30 48 36 51 / 0 10 0 0 HLN 28 45 33 53 / 10 20 10 0 BZN 22 43 28 51 / 0 10 10 0 WYS 10 31 13 37 / 10 20 10 0 DLN 21 42 25 48 / 0 10 0 0 HVR 20 44 31 50 / 0 0 10 0 LWT 25 47 35 50 / 0 10 10 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.