textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures continue this week, warmest Wednesday through Friday.

- Aside from a few brief mountain showers or snow showers through Tuesday morning, the remainder of the week looks dry.

UPDATE

/Issued 757 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026/

Today it will be warm (although it will be the 'coolest' day of this week for most locations) and dry across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. For the update, relative humidity was decreased to reflect current observations and trends. The rest of the forecast is on track. -IG

DISCUSSION

/Issued 757 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Anomalously strong upper level ridging is developing across the region this afternoon. Before the ridging fully moves in a weak disturbance sliding southeastward within the northwesterly flow aloft will result in some light mainly mountain precipitation tonight.

Probability for precipitation quickly wanes through the morning Tuesday as upper level ridging becomes fully entrenched. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer as a result across the region, peaking in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe as the ridge peaks in intensity. Winds will be breezy at times through the week, but are not looking impactful.

Heading into the weekend the ridge begins to weaken, though at least initially this really only results in temperatures cooling slightly, with another round of breezy winds on Saturday. Greater uncertainty builds heading into Sunday and Monday, with some ensemble members bringing light precipitation into the region. The main takeaway at this point is there is no clear signal for a large pattern shift at this time toward anything significantly colder/wetter early next week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Temperatures: The only questions for temperatures Wednesday through Friday is just how warm they get. Most days look to lack significant cloud cover, but even a little would hinder temperatures a bit. For now we have leaned toward the warmer side of the envelope for forecast highs.

This weekend into early next week:

Ensemble averages shift the ridge eastward this weekend, leaving a southwesterly flow aloft. Although this is the case, there is not support for any strong systems to move in behind the ridge. Hence, the trend into early next week will be for temperatures to trend closer to average, with low probabilities for precipitation sneaking back into the forecast. -AM

AVIATION

03/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Across central and north-central Montana, expect passing high level cloudiness through most of the period. For southwest Montana, periods of low to mid-level clouds will continue through at least 04/00Z for KBZN and at least 04/09Z for KEKS leading to some periods of mountain obscuration in the area before ceilings gradually start to lift towards the second half of the period. Gusty winds are expected to return early Wednesday morning across north-central Montana with the strongest winds expected at KCTB and KGTF. -thor

FIRE WEATHER

Early season mild temperatures are expected from Wednesday through Friday of this week. It will be breezy during the afternoon hours, along with humidity less than 20 percent at times. These conditions could make it a bit difficult to contain any new wildfires in grassy areas. Brusda

CLIMATE

Numerous locations have the potential of setting new all time record high temperatures for the month of February this week. The table below reflects the current all time record high temperature for the month of February for select climate sites across the CWA.

LOCATION Cut Bank 71F set on February 27, 1992 Havre 74F set on February 27, 1992 Great Falls 70F set on February 27, 1992 and February 27, 1932 Lewistown 70F set on February 27, 1932 Helena 69F set on February 24, 1995 and February 27, 1932 Bozeman 66F set on February 24, 1995 Dillon 64F set on February 27, 1988 and February 28, 1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 52 33 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 50 32 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 51 30 58 32 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 49 25 56 31 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 37 11 42 15 / 20 0 0 0 DLN 49 27 56 31 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 48 27 57 35 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 46 28 62 38 / 10 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.