textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It will be windy through Sunday morning across North-central Montana.

- Widespread rain/snow will fall Sunday evening through Monday morning.

- Tuesday through the end of the week it will be warm with dry weather outside of mountain snow showers at times.

UPDATE

The main change to the update was cancelling the high wind warning along the Rocky Mountain Front a little early. The mid level jet pulling away farther east and morning cloud cover moving in down trended winds earlier this morning.

Across the Continental Divide, moisture advection streaming in has allowed for rain/snow to fall this morning. Temperatures this morning have been hovering above freezing at and below pass level, so it's been mostly rain so far. It will take a bit for snow levels to lower today until better cooling from the front and disturbance aloft moves in alter this afternoon/evening. Most precipitation at lower elevations will hold off until the mid level front slides in late afternoon to evening. Mild afternoon temperatures this afternoon will make the precipitation type predominantly rain at first across lower elevations. -Wilson

DISCUSSION

/Issued 329 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This morning there is an upper-level shortwave associated with a Pacific cold front that will move over the Rocky Mountain Front. This will bring strong winds to the Rocky Mountain Front and plains through this morning. It will also bring snow to locations above pass-level along the Rocky Mountain Front. The Pacific cold front will move through North-central by this evening. This will bring rain initially to the lower-elevations of North-central Montana Sunday afternoon and early evening. The Pacific Front will stall north of the I-90 corridor Sunday evening. Monday morning the Pacific Cold Front will move through Southwestern Montana. The Pacific cold front will cool temperatures to closer to seasonal averages but still slightly above seasonal averages across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. The Pacific Cold Front will lower snow-levels across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring mixed precipitation to much of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Monday.

Tuesday an upepr-level ridge moves over the area. This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with mostly dry weather. Wednesday through Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Wednesday through Saturday there will upper-level shortwaves that move through the upper-level ridge and will bring snow showers to the mountains with mostly dry weather for the lower-elevations. Wednesday through Saturday temperatures will be well-above seasonal averages. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

For Snow Sunday through Monday there is a 60% chance for 6 inches of across the Little Belts, Southern Rocky Mountain Front, and mountains of Southwestern Montana. For snow Sunday through Monday there is a 30 - 60% chance for an inch of snow or greater between Belt and Lewistown along the Montana Highway 200 Corridor/US Highway 87 Corridor.

The snow squall risk on Monday continues to go down. Model soundings only show enough instability for snow squalls in the afternoon. In addition Monday morning the frontogenesis is modestly weak. Also the snowfall in the afternoon across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana looks to be isolated in nature. -IG

AVIATION

08/12Z TAF Period

Periods of strong winds will affect the Rocky Mountain Front and the Cut Bank area through about 15z. Rain/Snow will also affect mountain areas along the divide through the period. The rain/snow will spread eastward over Helena, Great Falls and Lewistown this evening, spreading into the Bozeman area by Monday morning. Expect low ceilings and IFR conditions to develop in areas of snow. Mountains/pass will gradually become obscured across the CWA during the day today. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 57 27 44 25 / 20 70 40 0 CTB 49 25 43 23 / 10 50 30 0 HLN 54 30 42 23 / 20 80 40 10 BZN 55 28 43 18 / 20 80 70 10 WYS 39 18 34 4 / 30 80 90 30 DLN 54 24 42 18 / 10 80 60 0 HVR 55 27 44 23 / 10 40 30 10 LWT 55 29 39 21 / 40 70 60 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Monday for East Glacier Park Region-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.