textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold temperatures and dry conditions persists Sunday.

- Winds increasing Sunday night into Monday, will bring patchy blowing and drifting snow to the Rocky Mountain Front.

- A windy and more active pattern sets up for this weekend, with mostly mountain snow and a few periods of lower elevation rain and snow showers.

-Temperatures climb back to above normal Monday afternoon, with another shot of a cool down for next weekend.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1153 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Low clouds have developed over Central MT this evening. The slight chance for patchy fog and/or low clouds development will persist through Sunday morning. However, higher level clouds passing through should keep the spatial coverage and intensity of fog marginal. The upper-level ridge in place for most of the day will keep the weather dry again for Sunday. Better mixing in parts of Southwest and North- Central MT will allow for slightly warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon. Areas that don't mix out as well will remain colder.

Winds aloft begin to increase late Sunday through Monday, which will bring the first round of windy conditions to the Rocky Mountain Front and the Highway 200 corridor Monday through early Tuesday morning. The strong winds developing also brings the concern for blowing and drifting snow through Monday afternoon, before temperatures climb above freezing. A persistent pattern sets up for the week with continuous westerly flow aloft. Pacific moisture streaming over the Continental Divide will bring daily light to moderate snow over the mountains. Better upper-air support at times will also bring a few rounds of lower elevation rain/snow showers, with the best chances being Tuesday and Wednesday. Windy conditions will also be persistent across the Rocky Mountain front and plains. Coverage of strong winds increases across the region Wednesday through Friday.

Ensembles are hinting at a cool down in temperatures next weekend. However, there still a big spread on how cold it gets.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Winds This Week: There still remains a little uncertainty in the winds for Monday into early Tuesday. Most of it has to do with the timing and the stronger mid level jet. Models have started to trend the strongest winds more towards later in the day Monday to early Tuesday morning. There is still the potential for mountain wave activity over the Rocky Mountain Front Monday morning. There's not enough confidence yet to upgrade the watches to a warning, but will be something to consider for future forecast packages. Once there is higher confidence in the winds for Monday, then we can assess if blowing snow will be impactful enough for a Winter Weather Advisory. Heading towards the second half of the week, the chances for stronger winds spread farther across the region. There's up to a 30-70% chance for 58 mph wind gusts for parts of Southwest and North- Central MT Wednesday through Friday. The Rocky Mountain Front has up to a 50-90% chance for 75mph winds Wednesday and Thursday.

Snow This Week:

Snow over the Continental Divide will be rather consistent throughout the week. Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be the better snow producing day due to the better potential of convective snow. There's a 60% chance for 6" of snow along Marias Pass and Chief Joseph Pass Tuesday and Wednesday. Snowfall accumulations across lower elevations will be very light, as more marginal overnight temperatures will make snow struggle to accumulate initially. -Wilson

AVIATION

22/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail as an upper level ridge shifts east across the northern Rockies and MT today. Broken mid to high level clouds decrease this afternoon. Some low clouds have developed in the KCTB vicinity early this morning and cannot rule out some additional patchy low cloud/fog development there and even in the KGTF vicinity through about 15z. Considerable cloud-cover will continue to be a limiting factor to the development of low clouds and fog, keeping coverage fairly isolated. Surface winds remain light at most terminals through this afternoon with southwest winds beginning to increase tonight at KCTB and KGTF. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 29 17 54 35 / 0 0 10 30 CTB 28 15 49 27 / 0 0 20 20 HLN 42 21 52 33 / 0 0 20 50 BZN 45 19 52 33 / 0 0 0 30 WYS 37 8 39 24 / 0 0 0 40 DLN 45 22 50 33 / 0 0 0 20 HVR 21 7 52 24 / 0 0 10 20 LWT 40 25 50 30 / 0 0 0 30

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains.

High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.