textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds continue today, but not as strong as yesterday.

- Well above average temperatures and drier conditions across Southwest Montana today will maintain elevated fire conditions. - Somewhat cooler temperatures and a brief chance for light precipitation follow the passage of a frontal system across the area today.

UPDATE

The leading edge of a cooler airmass from Canada had moved as far south as Great Falls by around 8am this morning. This boundary will continue south today and is on track to reach the Helena area around noon-1pm and the I-90 corridor by 3-4pm. Winds turn to the north or northwest following the frontal passage with temperatures currently in the 40s behind the front but as cool as the low 30s along the Canadian border. Lower clouds and light precipitation are expected to increase across north-central MT later this morning as the cooler airmass deepens with areas from Great Falls east to Lewistown having the best chance (40-60% probability) of receiving 0.10" or greater precipitation amounts through early this afternoon. Further south, there will be the opportunity for gusty west winds and warming temperatures prior to the the arrival of the front, which may impact ongoing fire suppression operations across central MT with areas near the I-90 corridor seeing more notable warmth/dryness and a shift from gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon before improving RH and cooler temps arrive following the front. Precipitation across areas from near Helena south to Bozeman will be more scattered as well with better chances for showers near the continental divide and east of Big Belt and Bridger ranges. Hoenisch

DISCUSSION

/Issued 514 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026/ Gusty, and at times strong, southwest to west winds will continue over the plains of Central and North Central Montana through the early morning hours today as strong westerly winds just off of the surface slowly slide east of the Northern Rockies. At the surface a cold front, which was moving south of Calgary as of late Friday evening, will begin to move south across the International Border between 4-8 AM Saturday to around the Montana Hwy 200 corridor by 7-11 AM Saturday. This cold front will then slow as it begins to interact with the Island Ranges of Central Montana before eventually pushing through the valleys of Central and Southwest Montana during the mid- to late afternoon hours on Saturday. Light, to at times brief moderate, rain will accompany the passage of this front, with the best chance for wetting rainfall occurring over Central Montana. While some minor snowfall accumulations are possible in the mountains initially high snow levels will help to limit accumulations.

Zonal flow over the Northern Rockies from Sunday through Tuesday will help to maintain above normal temperatures and overall dry conditions, with daytime highs generally ranging from the mid-50s to mid-60s across most locations. A fast moving shortwave and strong Pacific front then looks to move over the Northern Rockies through the middle to end of the work week; which will bring another round of strong and gusty winds to portions of Southwest through North Central Montana and chances for precipitation from Tuesday night through Thursday. - Moldan

AVIATION

21/12Z TAF Period.

Expect a surface wind shift to the northwest/north today as a cold front moves southward through the CWA. Light showers will continue along the divide through the period, but expect light showers to also develop in the wake of the cold front over Central MT late this morning through early evening. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times. Brusda

FIRE WEATHER

Above normal temperatures, gusty winds, and low afternoon relative humidity values will once again be observed today; however, winds and humidity values won't be as strong or low, respectively, as to what was observed on Friday. A weak front moving south will bring a wind shift to the northwest to north through the day today, with light rain possible across mainly Central Montana.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 53 31 57 33 / 70 10 0 0 CTB 46 27 52 25 / 60 10 0 0 HLN 60 28 55 29 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 70 27 59 30 / 20 10 0 0 WYS 61 22 51 18 / 20 20 0 0 DLN 68 27 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 50 27 55 27 / 60 20 0 0 LWT 55 28 51 30 / 90 10 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.