textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It will be cold today across the plains of North-central Montana before it warms up Sunday through early next week.

- Snow will return to the mountains of Southwestern Montana Wednesday into Thursday.

- It will be warm across Central and Southwestern Montana through the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 241 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon across North-central Montana it will be cold with all locations well-below seasonal averages for high temperatures. On Sunday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana which will allow temperatures across the plains of North-central Montana to begin to warm up on Sunday. It will also be dry across the area. Sunday evening an upper-level shortwave trough moves through Southwestern Montana. This will bring light snow to the Idaho/Montana border Sunday evening through Monday evening.

On Monday and Tuesday the upper-level ridge remains over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep warm and mostly dry weather across the area. On Wednesday and Thursday an upper-level trough begins to move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring precipitation to much of Southwestern Montana. See the Forecast Confidence & Scenarios Section for details about this trough. On Friday the upper-level flow will be weak and zonal (east-west) over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep status quo weather for the area on Friday. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Temperatures were decreased significantly from NBM through tomorrow morning across North-central Montana to better match current observations and trends. Sunday night through monday evening there is a 30 - 60% chance for 1 inch of snow or greater along the Idaho/Montana Border in Southwestern Montana.

Wednesday through Thursday deterministic models and ensembles are in good agreement that there will be an upper-level trough over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. However, there are large differences in the speed and amplitude of the trough. Two of the 4 clusters which counts for approximately 50% of the ensemble membership has a splitting trough. This would send most of the energy south into the Great Basin and bring only light precipitation to Southwestern Montana. The other two ensembles do not have a splitting trough which would support more widespread precipitation across the area. This leads to uncertainty in temperatures and precipitation amounts across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Wednesday through Thursday. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 30 - 60% chance for 6 inches of snowfall or greater across the mountains of Southwestern Montana. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 30 - 60% chance for 4 inches of snow or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 20 - 50% chance for liquid precipitation of a tenth of an inch or greater across the valleys of Southwestern Montana. -IG

AVIATION

01/00Z TAF Period

Low clouds will start to lift away from KGTF over the next couple hours and move in the direction of KHVR where MVFR/low-VFR conditions are expected to persist through 01/06Z. Otherwise expect generally light winds and VFR conditions to persist across the region through the TAF period. -thor

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 12 55 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 8 52 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 27 55 30 54 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 27 57 31 55 / 0 0 10 20 WYS 17 43 26 44 / 0 30 60 70 DLN 30 55 34 53 / 0 0 10 20 HVR 8 47 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 16 52 29 53 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.