textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated light showers possible this afternoon across Central MT.

- Drier and warmer trend continuing through mid day Tuesday.

- A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Tuesday along with gusty winds.

- An active period returns for towards next weekend.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 528 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

An upper-level ridge building in along the West Coast U.S. will continue to out the region in northwest flow aloft. Therefore, a few isolated light showers will be possible this afternoon, mainly across the Little Belts/Central MT area. The main limiting factor for this will be high pressure building in. The ridge slowly moving east across the Western U.S. will keep high pressure dominating through the beginning of next week. Therefore, drier and warmer conditons build in through then. Temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s across Southwest MT and parts of North- Central MT can cause some frost to develop Sunday morning.

This northwest flow aloft pattern continues through Friday. An upper level wave drops down from Canada and into MT Tuesday through Thursday. Mid level winds increase Tuesday afternoon through evening. A cold front dropping south late Tuesday through Wednesday helps mix these winds down to the surface, bringing gusty winds to the region. The front will also develop showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Towards the end of next week, another upeer-level wave developing bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The timing of the winds Tuesday will be key to the wind threat. So far, models have the 700mb winds ramp up between 3pm to 12am. Winds ramping up closer in the afternoon will have better diurnal mixing, and a better chance for stronger wind gusts. However, the cold front passing through the evening can also help mix down these winds to the surface. There's a 40 to 70% chance for 55 mph wind gusts Tuesday along the Rocky Mountain Front. Across Central MT from MacDonald pass through US Highway 12, there's a 30 to 70% chance for 50 mph wind gusts. Hotter temperatures Tuesday combined with the wind and RH's dropping to near critical could elevate fire weather conditions somewhat, but the recent rainfall looks to limit the severity. Places where there wasn't as much rainfall like Southwest MT will probably have to be monitored. -Wilson

AVIATION

14/06Z TAF Period

As high pressure builds over North Central and Southwestern Montana, expect clear skies to prevail along with light winds through the next 24 hours. Only concern is the possibility of some thin fog at KBZN and KWYS, but I only had enough confidence to add it to the KBZN TAF. Ludwig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 40 71 45 78 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 36 71 45 78 / 0 0 10 10 HLN 40 73 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 36 70 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 30 68 32 75 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 36 69 40 79 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 40 74 46 78 / 0 0 10 20 LWT 37 68 41 71 / 0 0 10 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.