textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It will be windy and mostly dry on Sunday across North-central Montana.

- Through the upcoming work week it will be warm, dry, and breezy with strong winds returning to North-central Montana on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1248 PM MST Sat Nov 7 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon an upper-level ridge strengthens over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. As it result it will be warm and dry this afternoon. On Sunday the upper-level ridge breaks down. This combined with strong low-level and mid-level winds will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana. The strongest winds will be along the Rocky Mountain Front. On Sunday it will be dry outside of a few isolated showers along the Rocky Mountain Front.

On Monday an upper-level ridge moves back over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will continue the warm and dry conditions for the area. On Tuesday an upper-level shortwave trough moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with a strong pressure gradient and strong low-level winds will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. Wednesday through Friday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central Montana. This will keep warm and dry weather for the area Wednesday through Friday. Wednesday through Friday it will also be breezy across North- central Montana. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

On Sunday along the Hi-line east of I-15 and in the lower-elevations of Cascade and Judith Basin County there is a 20 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. On Sunday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 60 - 90% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. On Sunday across the plains west of I-15 there is a 40 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 65 mph or greater. As a result during the day on Sunday a High Wind Warning is in effect for the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. A High Wind Watch remains in effect during the day on Sunday for the Hi-Line east of I-15 through Hill County and the lower-elevations of Cascade and Judith Basin County.

On Tuesday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 40 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 70 mph or greater. On Tuesday along the plains west of I-15 there is a 40 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. On Tuesday across the lower-elevations of Cascade and Judith Basin Counties there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. -IG

AVIATION

08/00Z TAF Period

North-Central MT / Central MT: Winds have started to taper down as boundary layer decoupling develops however KCTB will continue to see some gusty winds up to 25KT until late this evening. Much stronger winds aloft above 2000 AGL will continue into tomorrow with strongest probability for LLWS from 08/13Z to 08/17Z.

Rocky Mtn Front, sustained winds between 30-40kts are expected with frequent gusts above 55kts. Along the immediate eastern slopes, isolated gusts over 75kts are possible. Mountain wave activity is expected along the Rocky Mountain Front between 08/12Z and 09/03Z. Across the rest of the Northern Plains, sustained winds between 20-35kts are expected with gusts up to 45kts possible. Some locations, including KHVR and KGTF, have the potential to see gusts up to 50kts through the afternoon.

LLWS will be a concern along the Rocky Mountain Front between 08/10Z and 08/18Z as the flow aloft increases out of the west first before mixing down to the surface. Further out along the Hi-Line and the Northern Plains, LLWS will be a concern primarily between 08/12Z and 08/20Z.

Southwest Montana: Generally few to scattered mid- to high-level clouds will persist through the afternoon with increasing mid- level cloudiness expected to develop across Southwest Montana after 08/10Z. While winds will remain light around KBZN and KWYS through the period, gusty southerly winds will continue at KEKS. Surface winds at KEKS are expected to pick up further after 08/04Z with the strongest winds expected late Sunday morning through the afternoon. -thor/RA

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 44 64 41 56 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 37 55 33 51 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 36 62 35 54 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 32 60 33 54 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 23 48 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 31 58 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 37 66 35 53 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 40 64 37 55 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Cascade County below 5000ft-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.