textproduct: Great Falls
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today, mainly south of the I-90 corridor from Butte to Bozeman.
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions on Friday.
- Temperatures will remain above normal this weekend into early next week, but daily chances for showers and storms will return.
DISCUSSION
/Issued 530 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026/
- Meteorological Overview:
An embedded wave within northerly flow aloft moves south, driving the potential for light isolated showers north and west of the I-15 corridor this morning. As the wave moves south and over Southwest MT during the day, isolated and scattered showers remain possible, mainly along and south of the I-90 corridor. Precipitation amounts with these showers will be light and non- impactful.
An upper level ridge will move over the Northern Rockies from the west tonight into tomorrow morning, allowing temperatures to continue to warm and dry conditions to form. An upper level trough begins to dig southeast over the Canadian Prairie Provinces on Saturday, causing the upper level ridge to move eastward and break down. While temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend into early next week, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return. Precipitation chances over this timeframe will be greatest over the higher terrain and in northerly upslope areas. - Moldan and Dzomba
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Precipitation chances remain low and mostly over the areas of higher terrain today, with most locations having a 20 percent chance of 0.01 inches or more. Chances greatly decrease over this evening, leading way to a warm and dry Friday.
AVIATION
30/18Z TAF Period.
While and isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out this afternoon between 21-24z for areas along and south of the I-90 corridor in Southwest Montana the probability of any shower or storm impacting a given terminal is below a 30% chance. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail throughout the duration of the 3018/0118 TAF period, with limited mountain obscuration across Southwest Montana. - Moldan
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 62 36 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 64 34 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 62 35 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 58 30 67 34 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 50 19 60 24 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 58 31 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 64 34 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 56 32 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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