textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected through the weekend with a warm up in temperatures Friday and Saturday.

- Gusty winds set up along the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday with breezy conditions across the plains.

- Next round of precipitation looks to come through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 128 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

An upper-level ridge will slowly build across the region through Friday, keeping conditions dry through the weekend. High pressure continues to dominate the region through Saturday, keeping subsidence at the surface. Low level moisture from the continued melting snowpack bring another slight potential for fog development/low stratus tonight, particularly along the river valleys. A dry mid level shortwave passing through today over the Rocky Mountain Front has brought windy conditions along the immediate eastern foothills this morning. These winds will decrease throughout the afternoon.

This ridge flattens out heading into Saturday, bringing increased westerly flow aloft. A strong 700mb jet sets up along the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday afternoon, which coinciding with peak day time mixing, will mix these stronger winds to the surface. The core of the jet does not extend much east of the Rocky Mountain Front, so the plains will see lesser wind speeds. The increased chinook winds also help push temperatures up back to above normal Saturday.

Ensembles hint at a trough coming down from British Columbia during the first half of next week. However, the degree of troughing/timing still varies greatly so details remain uncertain. Though, the forecast is pointing towards a cool down after Saturday with some precipitation chances heading into next week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Models are still consistently showing the 700mb winds peaking at 60- 75 kts along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday afternoon into evening. There remains some uncertainty in how far east these core winds extend, with some models extending it toward the Cut Bank to Sweet Grass Hills area while some keep the stronger winds to the immediate foothills of the Rocky's. Timing remains uncertain as well. If the peak mid level jet arrives in the mid afternooon then there will be a better chance for gusty winds. Some models trend it later in the evening, which will lower the chances of these winds mixing to the surface. Ensembles show a 40% chance for 58 mph wind gusts at Cut Bank and a 30-60% chance for 75 mph wind gusts along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front foothills. -Wilson

AVIATION

15/00Z TAF Period

An upper level disturbance moving across the Canadian Prairies will send a frontal boundary/wind shift south across the area tonight. Main impact will be the shift to northerly surface winds later this evening across north-central MT and overnight across SW MT. A few lower to mid level clouds may also develop near the mountains following the shift to northerly winds tonight through Thursday morning. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 31 48 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 26 45 25 62 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 30 50 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 28 47 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 19 52 17 56 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 26 46 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 31 49 25 66 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 30 43 29 67 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.