textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It will be windy Saturday through Sunday across North-central Montana with very strong winds spreading down to the I-90 Corridor on Sunday.

- Friday through Sunday evening it will be mostly dry.

- Next week there will be several rounds of precipitation.

UPDATE

/Issued 205 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026/

Early morning update has been published, with the main adjustment being to increase PoPs to account for moderate snow moving southeast across portions of North Central through Southwest Montana. While most lower elevations will see less than 1" of snowfall through the mid-morning ours a few locations could see upwards of 3", especially the northerly upslope areas between 5000-7000ft. Given that the snow is falling during the overnight hours, and with road surface temperatures near or above freezing, we will address this accumulating snow with a Special Weather Statement; however, should this moderate snowfall persist longer than 4-6AM then a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for the Friday morning commute. - Moldan

DISCUSSION

/Issued 205 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Snow will linger across portions of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana through early this morning. Friday morning anywhere that clears out fog has the potential to form. On Friday the upper-level trough slowly begins to move away from Montana. This will allow North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana to dry out with cool temperatures. On Saturday an upper-level ridge begins to move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Saturday it will be dry and warm across the area. Due to an increasing pressure gradient on Saturday it will be windy across North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. On Sunday the upper-level ridge begins to flatten out. This combined with strong low-level and upper-level winds and a strong pressure gradient will bring strong winds to North-central Montana down to the I-90 corridor with the strongest winds in North- central Montana. On Sunday there will be light snow along the Rocky Mountain Front. Sunday evening an upper-level shortwave trough will move through the upper-level flow and bring precipitation to North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. The shortwave has the potential to stop the strong winds along the Hi-Line earlier than the rest of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.

On Monday and Tuesday there will be upper-level zonal flow over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to cool off with precipitation across the area on Monday. On Wednesday an upper-level ridge briefly builds back in over the area. This will warm temperatures up with mostly dry weather. Wednesday night into Thursday an upper-level shortwave will move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring another round of precipitation to the area with cooler temperatures on Thursday. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana in isolated locations there is a 10 - 20% chance for fog to form Friday morning.

On Saturday there is a 60 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front. On Saturday across the rest of North- central Montana there is a 20 - 60% chance for wind gusts in excess of 55 mph. As a result across a portion of North- central Montana a High Wind Watch remains in effect for Saturday. On Sunday there is a 60 - 90% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. As a result a High Wind Warning was issued for the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I- 15 from 2AM Saturday through midnight Sunday night. On Sunday there is 40 - 80% chance for wind gusts in excess of 90 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front. On Sunday along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts in excess of 100 mph. On Sunday across the plains of North-central Montana down to the I-90 corridor there is a 50 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. As a result a High Wind Watch was issued for those areas from Sunday morning to midnight. -IG

AVIATION

06/12Z TAF Period

Snow will continue across portions of North Central through Southwest Montana through ~15-18z Friday, impacting the KBZN, KEKS, and KGTF terminals with LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions. Clearing skies from north to south will also support the potential for fog development through ~16z this morning, with concerns shifting to the KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT terminals where skies will be clearing through sunrise this morning. Should fog develop at or near these terminals then VLIFR/LIFR conditions would be possible given recent precipitation; however, model guidance continues to struggle and support this scenario. Thus confidence in these conditions prevailing remains very low, even at this close hour. Otherwise VFR conditons will prevail beyond 18z Friday, with improving mountain visibility beyond 21z Friday. - Moldan

FIRE WEATHER

There will be elevated fire weather concerns for grassland areas this weekend. Particularly for areas that received little to no precipitation yesterday and today. Strong winds, gusting over 60 mph at times, combined with high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s and minimum relative humidity values in the 20s and 30s may make it difficult to contain any existing or new fire starts. The worst conditions look to occur on Sunday when the winds will be strongest and most widespread. - RCG/IG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 48 32 59 46 / 40 10 0 0 CTB 45 31 54 43 / 0 0 10 0 HLN 46 30 56 39 / 10 10 20 10 BZN 44 22 53 33 / 30 10 10 0 WYS 37 14 37 27 / 20 10 30 30 DLN 42 23 50 32 / 10 10 0 0 HVR 51 29 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 43 26 55 38 / 20 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 2 AM Saturday to midnight MST Sunday night for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Cascade County below 5000ft- Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty- Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft- Gallatin Valley-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Hill County- Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys-Missouri Headwaters-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and Central Chouteau County.

High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below 5000ft-Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Western and Central Chouteau County.