textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds affect much of north-central and central Montana today with wind speeds peaking this afternoon and evening.

- Gusts in excess of 85 mph across western Glacier, Pondera and Teton counties may impact travel on US-89 and US-2.

- Very windy conditions linger into Friday before ending from north to south.

- A cooler airmass and mainly light snow slides south across north-central Montana Saturday with meaningful snow accumulation mainly affecting areas near the Canadian border.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 434 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Already fast WNW mid-upper level flow across the northern Rockies will increase further today as an upper level low rapidly translates ESE from the AK panhandle to the Canadian prairies by Friday, compressing flow over the upper ridge centered over the SW US. 700MB wind speeds peak at 60-80kts across north-central MT late this afternoon/early evening along with a couplet of lee-side surface troughing and high pressure west of the divide that peaks around 00- 03z with the passage of an embedded shortwave north of the border. All of this supports the redevelopment of strong surface winds across much of north-central MT today with strongest winds occurring this afternoon and evening. While winds peak in this period, very windy conditions are likely to persist into Friday before tapering off from north to south as surface high pressure builds southward in the wake of the passing Canadian upper level disturbance.

A colder airmass slides south primarily across the north-central MT plains Friday night through Saturday as high pressure shifts eastward across the Canadian prairies. Embedded moisture in NW flow produces mainly light snow Friday night through early Saturday across portions of north-cnetal MT, focused from Glacier NP east across the Hi-line and southward across Fergus county, though some very light snow or flurries may fall as far south as Great Falls. The cold airmass is fairly shallow with noticeable cooling limited to north-central MT Sat/Sat night while temperatures remain above average across SW MT. Even across N-central MT, the cooler period is short loved with temperatures moderating Sunday and returning to above average for all areas early next week with broad upper level ridging across the interior western US supporting dry conditions through at least the first half of next week before longer range model ensembles point towards troughing developing late next week. Hoenisch

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

A very supportive temperature profile for mountain wave wind enhancement (stable layer ~700MB) is already supporting some localized wind gusts to around 50kts early this morning as far east as Great Falls and Cut Bank, with this layer likely to continue to facilitate the ducting of increasing mid level winds across western portions of north-central MT this afternoon through this evening. Atmospheric mixing will also aid in the development of more widespread strong wind gusts across the rest of north-central and portions of central MT by this afternoon. The most impactful period of strong winds is still anticipated for this afternoon through early this evening with 60% or higher probability for gusts in excess of 85 mph along the Rocky Mtn Front, including areas along US-2/US-89 in the Browning/East Glacier vicinity. Localized gusts near 100 mph are possible in the more favored areas along the immediate east slopes but potentially extending a bit further east to areas just west of US-89 in western Pondera and Teton counties.

Some minor winter weather impacts are possible with generally light snow accumulation expected Fri night through Saturday morning across northern portions of north-central MT. Probabilities for 1" or greater snowfall accumulations range from 60-80% across most Hi- line counties with areas near the Bears Paw and Glacier NP having similar probabilities for snow accumulations exceeding 3 inches. Hoenisch

AVIATION

26/18Z TAF Period

Strong gusty winds will be the main concern today, along with mountain wave turbulence and LLWS, especially over the North Central Plains terminals (KGTF, KCTB, KHVR, KLWT), with lesser but still prevalent gusty winds at valley airports (KEKS, KBZN, KHLN). Gusts in excess of 50 kts are possible at all plains terminals, with winds aloft in excess of 70kts. Winds should subside at the surface a bit after sunset, but LLWS will increase as winds aloft will decrease slower. A northerly shift to the winds is expected for tomorrow, which may bring another round of LLWS as winds aloft remain out of the west. Ludwig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 50 35 49 24 / 0 0 10 30 CTB 45 29 39 11 / 0 10 30 50 HLN 51 31 53 29 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 53 27 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 35 13 39 13 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 49 27 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 52 25 39 13 / 10 10 50 80 LWT 50 32 47 22 / 0 0 20 40

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains- Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains- Northern Blaine County-Northern High Plains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front- Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and Central Chouteau County.