textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously hot temperatures continue this weekend, with today being the hottest day.

- Elevated to critical fire weather concerns continue today.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today will be capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts.

- Above normal temperatures continue into next week with isolated chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1158 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

The upper-level ridge will continue to bring heat impacts for the weekend along with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to develop into the early morning hours for Southwest MT. DCAPE values exceeding 1,500 J/kg will keep an isolated strong wind threat with convection. This afternoon, a shortwave will develop isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for areas mainly along and east of the I-15 corridor. 700mb winds increases throughout the day and forecast soundings show deep inverted V profiles with 30-50kts of shear. DCAPE exceeding 1,000 J/kg will allow for thunderstorms to be capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. Forcing Sunday will be a little bit weaker with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing again for Southwest and Central MT. The threat for severe weather will be lower, but a very strong dry surface layer will still allow for isolated strong winds to develop with showers and thunderstorms.

Heat remains to be a concern through the weekend, especially across North-Central MT. Saturday looks to be the hottest day still, with afternoon high temperatures reaching into the low mid 100s and overnight temperatures briefly cooling down to the mid 60s to low 70s this morning. The Extreme Heat Warning remains valid for today. Sunday won't be as hot, and model guidance has down trended temperatures slightly. Though afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s at lower elevations will still bring moderate heat impacts. Sunday morning's temperatures looks to have a longer period of cooling, as there will be around a 6 hour period of temperatures dropping below 70 degrees. With heat impacts trending downward slightly Sunday due to more cooling in overnight temperatures, the Extreme Heat warning got transitioned into a heat advisory for lower elevations in Cascade, Chouteau, Hill, and Blaine Counties.

This ridging pattern looks to continue through next week. Temperatureswon't be as hot, but will remain above normal. Models are trending next week as drier, but with decent PWATs and disturbances embedded win the ridge, I can't rule out isolated daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. -Wilson

AVIATION

25/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the 2512/2612 TAF period; however, scattered showers and storms will develop along and southeast of a KLWT to KHLN line between 18-21z this afternoon and persist through 00-02z this evening. While MVFR conditions can't be ruled out beneath these showers and storms if they were to move over a given terminal the main concern will be erratic wind gusts of between 30-50kts. - Moldan

FIRE WEATHER

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect across portions of North- Central Montana on Friday and Saturday with widespread minimum RH values below 20%, frequent gusts up to 30 to 40 mph, and hot temperatures expected Additionally, isolated thunderstorms may produce localized strong wind gusts and cloud to ground lightning, along with very little rainfall. The concern will be that any fire that starts may be very difficult to contain. Those who are doing anything that could generate sparks, including yard work, farming, towing trailers, or other activities should do everything possible to prevent a spark while traveling and/or recreating outdoors.

Marginal to elevated fire weather concerns may extend into Sunday and Monday as well, though lesser wind speeds and lower temperatures give lower confidence for critical fire weather conditions at the moment. Ludwig/Wilson

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 102 62 97 60 / 10 20 0 0 CTB 97 59 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 99 60 94 60 / 40 30 0 10 BZN 97 60 95 59 / 60 40 40 10 WYS 86 57 87 58 / 20 20 20 10 DLN 93 56 92 56 / 40 30 10 10 HVR 105 64 98 60 / 0 30 0 0 LWT 98 61 94 58 / 50 30 0 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Sunday for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Canyon Ferry Area-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton- Eastern Toole and Liberty-Gallatin Valley-Gates of the Mountains- Helena Valley-Madison River Valley-Meagher County Valleys- Missouri Headwaters.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-Hill and Blaine Counties-Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT Sunday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County below 4500ft.

Heat Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Cascade County below 5000ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County-Western and Central Chouteau County.

Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Cascade County below 5000ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County-Western and Central Chouteau County.