textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures continue this week, warmest Wednesday through Friday.

- Aside from a few brief mountain showers or snow showers through Tuesday morning, the remainder of the week looks dry.

UPDATE

/Issued 611 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026/ Updated forecast is out. Only change this evening was to freshen grids towards current trends. A few light showers/sprinkles moving off the divide this evening. A few of these showers will continue eastward, and mainly affect the mountains between Great Falls and Lewistown, with a few light showers also falling over the eastern portions of Blaine and Fergus counties later tonight. It will be windy once again overnight for the east slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front, with the windy conditions diminishing on Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track. Brusda

DISCUSSION

/Issued 611 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Anomalously strong upper level ridging is developing across the region this afternoon. Before the ridging fully moves in a weak disturbance sliding southeastward within the northwesterly flow aloft will result in some light mainly mountain precipitation tonight.

Probability for precipitation quickly wanes through the morning Tuesday as upper level ridging becomes fully entrenched. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer as a result across the region, peaking in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe as the ridge peaks in intensity. Winds will be breezy at times through the week, but are not looking impactful.

Heading into the weekend the ridge begins to weaken, though at least initially this really only results in temperatures cooling slightly, with another round of breezy winds on Saturday. Greater uncertainty builds heading into Sunday and Monday, with some ensemble members bringing light precipitation into the region. The main takeaway at this point is there is no clear signal for a large pattern shift at this time toward anything significantly colder/wetter early next week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Temperatures: The only questions for temperatures Wednesday through Friday is just how warm they get. Most days look to lack significant cloud cover, but even a little would hinder temperatures a bit. For now we have leaned toward the warmer side of the envelope for forecast highs.

This weekend into early next week:

Ensemble averages shift the ridge eastward this weekend, leaving a southwesterly flow aloft. Although this is the case, there is not support for any strong systems to move in behind the ridge. Hence, the trend into early next week will be for temperatures to trend closer to average, with low probabilities for precipitation sneaking back into the forecast. -AM

AVIATION

03/06Z TAF Period

Low-VFR/VFR conditions will predominately persist across Southwest through North Central Montana over the next 24 hours; however, temporary MVFR conditions mainly due to low CIGS could impact the KBZN, KEKS, and KLWT terminals through 12-15z Tuesday. Additionally, an isolated rain/snow shower can't be ruled out at the KLWT terminal over this timeframe, but the probability of this occurring is only around a 30% chance. Mountains will remain obscured through 18z Tuesday. - Moldan

FIRE WEATHER

Early season mild temperatures are expected from Wednesday through Friday of this week. It will be breezy during the afternoon hours, along with humidity less than 20 percent at times. These conditions could make it a bit difficult to contain any new wildfires in grassy areas. Brusda

CLIMATE

Numerous locations have the potential of setting new all time record high temperatures for the month of February this week. The table below reflects the current all time record high temperature for the month of February for select climate sites across the CWA.

LOCATION Cut Bank 71F set on February 27, 1992 Havre 74F set on February 27, 1992 Great Falls 70F set on February 27, 1992 and February 27, 1932 Lewistown 70F set on February 27, 1932 Helena 69F set on February 24, 1995 and February 27, 1932 Bozeman 66F set on February 24, 1995 Dillon 64F set on February 27, 1988 and February 28, 1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 35 52 34 67 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 34 50 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 33 50 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 31 49 27 59 / 10 10 0 0 WYS 16 37 14 43 / 10 20 0 0 DLN 30 50 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 28 48 28 57 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 31 46 29 64 / 10 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.