textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms track across the region today and again Friday night through early Saturday.

- Temperatures fluctuate around seasonal averages through Saturday.

- An extended period of warmer temperatures and overall dry conditions begins Sunday and likely persists into next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 245 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026/

Showers will continue to track southeast across primarily central MT this morning beneath a shortwave disturbance in northwest flow aloft and favorable positioning of an upper level jet diving south through the Northern Rockies. The initial shortwave exits by mid-day with skies partially clearing, but this will also lead to surface heating and afternoon development of widely scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

Drier conditions prevail tonight through most of the day on Friday as upper level ridging briefly shifts inland from the west coast before another shortwave disturbance moving over the ridge passes through the Northern Rockies and MT Friday night through Saturday. Another round of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms move across the region Friday night and Saturday with moisture tracking a bit further north than the system affecting the region this morning, focusing a grater coverage of showers across north- central MT primarily north and east of Great Falls.

Upper level ridging becomes more firmly established across the interior Western US late this weekend through much of next week, supporting an extended period of above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions beginning Sunday. Weather disturbances moving over the ridge across Canada next week could bring some breezy conditions at times but only minor cooling. Hoenisch

AVIATION

07/12Z TAF Period

Showers continue to track southeast across the area this morning in the vicinity of KGTF, KLWT, KHLN and KBZN through around 16z with some brief MVFR possible along with a diminishing risk of isolated lightning. Clouds decrease late this morning with some widely scattered shower/isolated thunderstorm development expected this afternoon before clearing and drying develops tonight. Surface winds from the west to northwest prevail through early this evening with a few gusty periods this afternoon as well as near any showers. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 68 43 74 50 / 60 30 10 10 CTB 68 40 73 45 / 20 20 20 30 HLN 68 41 75 47 / 40 20 0 0 BZN 68 38 72 41 / 20 10 0 0 WYS 64 31 68 36 / 10 0 0 10 DLN 70 38 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 73 39 78 44 / 30 10 10 40 LWT 64 38 70 44 / 60 30 10 70

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.