textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures are expected to rise through the next few days, with mid to upper 90s possible for some Friday and Saturday. - Elevated to near critical fire conditions are expected Friday and Saturday. - More seasonable next week with upper 80s to low 90s alongside otherwise benign weather.

UPDATE

Late afternoon update has been published, mainly to adjust hourly trends to take into account observed temperature and relative humidity values through the day thus far. Otherwise the remainder of the forecast remains on track, with regional and local wildfire smoke affecting much of Southwest through North Central Montana; most notably along and south of the I-90 corridor where the Bobcat Lakes, Sand Creek, and Moose Fires are putting up an impressive amount of smoke this afternoon. - Moldan

DISCUSSION

/Issued 530 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Over the next few days, an upper level ridge will build from the West coast and remain over parts of Montana, allowing for temperatures to increase into the low to mid 90s Friday and Saturday. With the increasing temperatures, the minimum relative humidity will drop to the teens in the afternoons. The region will remain dry through the week and into the weekend.

On Friday, winds will increase aloft as the ridge begins to flatten. Daytime mixing will bring the higher winds down to the surface, primarily across portions of Southwest and Central Montana, resulting in some gusty conditions in the area through Saturday and as humidity dips into the teens. These hot, breezy, and dry conditions will result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

On Monday, a westerly flow aloft will cause temperatures to cool down closer to seasonal averages, but will remain dry with low chances of precipitation. -Kiffe/Ludwig

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Fire Weather Friday/Saturday: Low RH values and pockets of breezy winds are still expected Friday and Saturday, though the threat appears to have reduced over the past few days. While the upper level ridge still looks to flatten out a bit on Friday, high pressure at the surface looks to build over the plains, which will prevent some of the winds from reaching the surface across the plains, but some gusty winds remain possible along the Rocky Mountain Front and into Southwestern Montana. However, at this point wind gusts over 20 mph look neither frequent nor widespread enough to warrant a Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch at this time, but this will continue to be evaluated over the coming days. Ludwig

AVIATION

06/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period however continued wildfire smoke will reduce horizontal and slant-range visibility across the region. Most terminals will see light and variable winds overnight with breezy Westerly to Northwesterly winds developing Thursday morning.

For KGTF: Winds will be southwesterly at around 10KT until 15Z tomorrow morning when they will switch to Northwesterly with occasional gusts up to 15KT. Smoke and haze will begin reducing surface visibility down to 6SM at 13Z. - Akins

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 52 88 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 52 81 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 53 91 55 96 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 50 91 52 96 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 47 86 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 49 89 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 54 88 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 51 84 52 88 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES