textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail.

- A few showers and thunderstorms in Southwest Montana Thursday and Friday afternoon.

- Trending hotter toward the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday looking hottest.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 212 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026/

Meteorological Overview:

Upper level troughing well off to the northwest over northern BC will progress eastward through the day today, eventually emerging into northwestern AB by the evening. Flow aloft across the region will largely be zonal, but be ever so slightly cyclonic in nature given the disturbance off to the northwest. This weakly cyclonic nature of the flow will combine with sufficient daytime heating to result in at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region by mid-afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings suggest wind will be the primary concern with the strongest thunderstorms, but increasing shear through the afternoon combine with respectable instability will yield a large hail threat as well. This activity exits eastward late evening or early overnight.

The main upper level disturbance passes eastward into Thursday, though some lingering instability across SW MT will yield a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon. Thereafter an upper level ridge begins to build in across the Central CONUS and interior west, which will allow for temperatures to climb heading into the weekend. While the hottest conditions look to remain off to the east and southeast, afternoon temperatures rising well into the 90s in many areas this weekend will pose impacts to those with outdoor plans. Plan for plenty of hydration and rest breaks if planning to be outside this weekend.

Heading into next week the ridge looks to slide eastward ever so slightly, which looks to open the door for some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. -AM

Uncertainty:

The main source of uncertainty today looks to be just how strong forcing will be for thunderstorm activity. As of now the main wave with the upper level disturbance looks to remain well north of the region. Forecast soundings show a small amount of convective inhibition, which would not require too much forcing to result in convective initiation. Should this forcing be slightly stronger, shower and thunderstorm activity would become much more widespread this afternoon and evening and vice versa.

Looking ahead toward the weekend, the main source of uncertainty will be associated with just how hot it gets across the region. As of now there is roughly a 50% chance for afternoon highs to reach or exceed 100F on Sunday over the plains. -AM

AVIATION

08/12Z TAF Period

While VFR conditions are the general rule this morning, a few areas of dense fog are present along the US 2 corridor, particularly KCTB and KHVR. Any fog should clear up by 14z, though I left it in the TAFs until 15z as a slight buffer. Otherwise, after a dry morning, a few TSRA will develop across the plains, staring over the Rocky Mountain Front before moving eastward. A few of the storms may be capable of producing some gusty winds or hail east of Interstate 15. Ludwig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 92 57 88 56 / 20 20 0 0 CTB 86 55 82 54 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 89 57 87 56 / 30 20 0 0 BZN 87 53 87 54 / 20 20 0 0 WYS 83 46 83 46 / 20 20 0 0 DLN 85 52 85 52 / 20 20 0 0 HVR 91 57 87 56 / 10 20 0 0 LWT 86 54 83 53 / 10 40 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.