textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of strong winds today through Tue over North Central MT. - Low humidity, gusty winds, and mild temperatures will create elevated fire conditions over grassy areas.

- Record high temperatures possible daily early this week.

- Very little precipitation expected this week.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: With an upper level ridge of high pressure moving eastward over MT over the next few days, expect drier and milder air to move into the CWA. Additionally, strong winds are expected over North Central MT at times starting today, and then continuing into Monday. There is some potential the strong winds could continue in the Cut Bank area into mid week. The only change to the high wind statement was to start the strong winds today in the Cut Bank area this morning. Otherwise, the rest of the high wind statement is on track.

Afternoon temperatures will be near record highs for the first half of the week.

There is the potential for the flow aloft to shift a bit northerly come Thursday. This would allow for slightly cooler air to move back into the CWA for a few days, but overall temperatures will still be above normal.

In terms of precipitation, there is a small chance for a passing mountain shower Monday into Tuesday, but the probability of a shower is low and any precipitation that does fall will be light. For Thursday, both the EC and GFS continue to have separate solutions, with the EC dry and the GFS having some scattered showers. The NBM is mostly dry, and that is the preferred solution at this time. By next weekend, afternoon temperatures could once again be close to 15 degrees above normal.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There is an 80 percent chance for high winds today in the Cut Bank area, thus the high wind warning was added for today.

Otherwise, there is a 90 percent chance for high winds on Monday across much of North Central MT. Blowing dust could be an impact over the Plains at times.

There is an 80 percent chance of record high temperatures across portions of North Central MT on Tue and that probability increases to above 90 percent for Wednesday. Brusda

AVIATION

11/12Z TAF Period

Passing mid/high level clouds expected to move across the CWA through the period. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Do expect gusty surface winds over North Central MT over the next few days. Brusda

FIRE WEATHER

Low humidity, gusty winds, and mild afternoon temperatures are expected the next few days. This will elevate fire conditions over grassy areas the next few days. Overall, observed humidity has been quite a bit lower than forecast, with some areas close to 10 percent on Saturday. Thus, afternoon humidity in the teens is looking likely over the Plains the next few days. Very poor recover is occurring at night, with many areas staying in the low 20 percent range. The combination of gusty winds and low humidity will make containing any new fire starts in grassy areas a bit more difficult through mid week. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 55 44 59 46 / 10 10 0 0 CTB 48 38 55 42 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 46 33 54 39 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 47 27 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 31 7 36 13 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 44 26 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 50 34 57 38 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 52 36 59 43 / 0 0 0 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MST Monday for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM MST Monday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below 5000ft- Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty- Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County-Western and Central Chouteau County.

High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM MST Monday for East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.