textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Light precipitation south of I-90 today.

- Mild temperatures early week trend a touch cooler toward the end of the week.

- Mainly light precipitation at times Wednesday toward the weekend, focused mostly in the mountains.

- A stretch of windy conditions develops Friday through much of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1202 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Broad troughing across the eastern US combined with lower amplitude ridging centered just off the Pacific coastline is continuing to result in a west-northwest flow aloft across the Northern Rockies. The northern periphery of a weakening upper level disturbance moving inland across northern CA into NV today will result in some light rain and snow across Southwest Montana south of I-90 through the evening. Otherwise there are no concerns today, with mild temperatures continuing across the region.

A dry and mild day follows on Tuesday as weakly anticyclonic flow holds on for another day. Wednesday is a transition day as the next upper level disturbance moves in from the west. Precipitation develops through the day Wednesday, initially in the terrain. A front moving through late Wednesday into Wednesday night introduces precipitation to lower elevations of Central and Southwest Montana into early Thursday morning. Areas further north closer to the Hi- Line look to stay mostly dry over this timeframe, with the main impact heading into Thursday being some slight cooling.

Cooler temperatures and some light mountain precipitation continue into Friday. The main concern then turns to an increasing pressure gradient and cross barrier flow heading into the weekend. Winds already increase Friday afternoon, with the peak of the winds appearing to be Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures trend milder over this timeframe, with precipitation continuing at times along the Continental Divide. -AM

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wednesday into Thursday:

The scenario favoring split troughing is emerging as the favored solution over this timeframe. As a result, precipitation amounts have generally trended lighter over most areas, especially over the Hi-Line which now looks to be mostly dry. That said, mountain snow does still look to pose some minor impacts to travel late Wednesday into Thursday. Passes with a greater than 50% probability for 4 inches of snow Wednesday through Thursday include Chief Joseph, Targhee, Raynolds, and Kings Hill.

Forecast soundings suggest precipitation type initially looks to be rain at lower elevations of Central and Southwest Montana as the front moves through. As cooler air works in behind the front at least a brief transition to snow is favored before precipitation at lower elevations ends heading into Thursday morning.

Winds late week and weekend:

Persistent west-northwest flow aloft will initially result in a strengthening pressure gradient Friday afternoon over the plains. Winds gradually increase through the day over the plains as a result. Further into the weekend flow aloft increases along with ridgetop stability. Ensemble probability for 65+ kts at 700mb over the Rocky Mountain Front sits at 50% over a 24 hour period ending Sunday morning. These factors combine to result in high confidence for a period of strong winds this weekend over the plains. In fact, the probability for a 58 mph gust at Cut Bank is already near 80% for Saturday. Further west in Browning the probability for an 80 mph gust is sitting right around 50% on Saturday. While there still remains some uncertainty on exact timing, confidence is high in a period of stronger winds occurring.

Should these stronger winds coincide with peak daytime heating, there will be a concern for fire weather conditions over the plains, particularly for areas that see little to no precipitation through the upcoming week. -AM

AVIATION

02/12Z TAF Period

A shortwave passes through the Great Basin area and brings lower level clouds, mountain obscuration, and some areas of light precipitation to southwestern areas south of I90 through around 03/00Z. Otherwise, dry westerly flow aloft will maintain VFR conditions and general light winds for most locations. - RCG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 60 30 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 59 31 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 55 29 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 54 25 59 31 / 20 0 0 0 WYS 43 15 45 23 / 70 30 0 10 DLN 54 25 59 32 / 20 10 0 0 HVR 55 27 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 56 30 61 35 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.