textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered snow showers through the evening today across the region.

- Gusty winds continue along the Rocky Mountain Front today and Friday. - Warmer and drier weather this weekend.

UPDATE

Evening update has been published, with the main change being to lower temperatures some 3 to 6 degrees across North Central through Southwest Montana as readings have been cooling quickly this evening as winds slowly decrease. Otherwise the remainder of the forecast remains on track with snow showers predominately remaining anchored to the Continental Divide through the evening hours before shifting further east over the Island Ranges of Central Montana as a shortwave shifts east over the Northern Rockies and northwesterly flow setups in its wake. While most mountain locations will generally see less than 2" of snow through Friday morning a few mountain passes across the Island Ranges of Central Montana (i.e. Kings Hill and Deep Creek) could see between 2-4" of snow. Given that most of this snow will fall during the overnight hours we will forgo any Winter Weather Advisories for the Little Belt and Big Belt areas, but travelers should be prepared for a slippery Friday morning commute in these mountainous areas. - Moldan

DISCUSSION

/Issued 435 PM MST Thu Jan 8 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

A small shortwave trough moving through today with mini vorticity maximums aloft will bring isolated to scattered snow showers across the region. Snow showers will wind down late tonight. After this upper-level wave passes, and upper-level ridge begins to build in through the weekend. On Friday, northwest flow aloft will advect in a small amount of moisture from the Pacific, which will bring light terrain-driven snow to the mountains. A pressure gradient tightening up along the Rocky Mountain Front will bring slightly stronger winds there Friday evening.

The weekend will remain dry, with a warm up in temperatures due to the ridge. This ridging pattern will be the dominant weather type heading into next week, which will keep things overall drier and warmer. Temperatures will remain well above normal mid-next week. Being along the eastern edge of this ridge will put us into a northwest flow aloft pattern. This will bring the opportunity for a few ridge breakdowns. One of these instances will be Sunday and Monday. A quick hitting shortwave trough will bring light mountain snow, but most notably a better chance for strong wind gusts for the Rocky Mountain Front. Another shortwave trough moves through late next week, which brings slight chances for precipitation again and some more wind as well.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Best chances for snow showers this afternoon will be in Southwest MT, but there will be isolated snow showers spilling out to the North-Central MT plains in the evening. The threat for snow squalls is lower today from less instability, forcing, and drier air at the surface. However, I can't rule out a few locally intense snow showers along mountain passes and the Southwest MT valleys where there are lower cloud bases and better surface RH. Snowfall accumulations if any, with be light with snow showers.

Although ensembles hint at lower probabilities for high winds tomorrow (40% chance or less), that strengthening pressure gradient will be something to watch for stronger sustained winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence isn't high enough to issue any watches or warnings at this point though. -Wilson

AVIATION

09/00Z TAF Period

Snow shower activity will continue along the Continental Divide and the mountains of southwest Montana through around 09/10Z before tapering off. As of now, confidence in impacts to the terminals is less than 20% but brief periods of MVFR or lower are possible around snow showers.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail across the region with mid-level clouds lingering through much of the period that may obscure the tops of nearby mountains at times. -thor

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 20 40 30 49 / 10 10 10 0 CTB 16 37 28 46 / 20 0 0 0 HLN 19 38 26 45 / 20 20 10 0 BZN 14 36 20 43 / 20 10 10 0 WYS -5 22 8 27 / 20 30 20 0 DLN 14 34 19 40 / 20 10 0 0 HVR 15 34 21 43 / 20 0 0 0 LWT 18 37 26 48 / 20 10 10 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.