textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds will continue across Central and North-Central Montana with wind speeds peaking this evening.

- Blowing dust will be a concern across portions of North-Central Montana overnight.

- Very windy conditions will linger into Friday before ending from north to south.

- A cooler airmass will slide down into North-Central Montana bringing a brief cool down and a chance for light snow showers with impactful snowfall amounts expected closer to the Canadian border.

UPDATE

Updated forecast is out for this evening. Strong winds continue to affect portions of North Central MT this evening. There are some gaps in the strong winds, but overall the strongest wind gusts are expected between now and 5 AM on Friday. After that, most areas will have winds diminishing, but a few areas along the divide could actually have strong winds into Fri afternoon. Thus some areas might need a short extension of the high wind warning along the divide. Note, the high wind warning was cancelled for the Helena valley and the Big Belt Mountain zones.

Otherwise, the main concern will be the cold front moving southward in Canada right now. This front will be near the US/Canadian border by morning, but models then disagree on how fast and how far south to push the front on Friday. Depending on how far south the front goes on Friday, this will determine when the strong winds diminish and how much snow develops over the northern portions of North Central MT. Thus no changes to the winter weather advisory at this time. Brusda

DISCUSSION

/Issued 443 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Strong surface winds will persist through the rest of the day with the potential for high wind gusts above 70 mph and high sustained winds above 40 mph across the Northern Plains and above 50 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front. While the strongest winds are expected to peak this afternoon, very windy conditions are likely to persist into Friday before tapering off from north to south as surface high pressure builds southward in the wake of a passing Canadian upper-level disturbance.

A backdoor cold front moves through on Friday bringing a chance for more seasonal temperatures across North-Central Montana and a chance for snow, primarily along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and along the Hi-Line. An area of frontogenetic banding is possible from southern Alberta down towards Northeastern Montana which has the potential to bring some locally higher amounts through the day on Friday. In our region, the areas most likely impacted by these heavier amounts will be across Blaine county, the Bears Paw Mountains, and the eastern half of Fergus county where amounts up to 4 inches are possible through early Saturday morning with a WInter Weather Advisory current in affect for these zones.

Behind the cold front, more seasonal temperatures will hang around for the day Saturday before broad upper-level ridging start to build back into place heading towards early next week which will promptly bring back well above normal temperatures to the area.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Blowing Dust This Afternoon:

Blowing dust will remain a concern, particularly along the I-15 corridor from Great Falls to the Canadian border and the US-87 corridor between Great Falls and Big Sandy. Visibility as low as a quarter of a mile has been reported at times, prompting the issuance of a Blowing Dust Advisory through the afternoon. Currently the worst of the impacts are expected to taper off by sunset, however, this situation will be monitored closely as there is a potential that stronger winds may persist later in the evening which would continue the threat for blowing dust across portions of North-Central Montana.

High Winds:

There is still very high confidence in strong winds continuing through the rest of the day across North-Central Montana. In general, the worst of the winds will occur this afternoon and slowly start to decrease this evening, especially along the Northern Plains. But a significant decrease in winds is not expected until late Friday morning in which winds will start to taper off from north to south across North Central Montana.

Snow Through Saturday:

A backdoor cold front will move across northern Montana bringing a chance for snow from the Rocky Mountain Front east across the Hi-Line. There are two areas of concern to watch for impacts: the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and Blaine/Fergus county plus the Bears Paw Mountains.

For the East Glacier Park region, light to moderate snow is expected to bring winter weather driving conditions to Marias Pass and Hudson Bay Divide. Snow, in combination with strong winds, will be a concern through the first 12-18 hours of the advisory with gusts up to 65 mph expected and isolated gusts up to 80 mph possible. Towards Friday afternoon/evening, winds will start to taper off along the Rocky Mountain Front with gusts up to 45 mph expected for the final 6-10 hours of the event. The main concerns will be slippery roads, reduced visibility due to blowing/drifting snow, and sudden changes to road and visibility when heading up in elevation.

For portions of the Hi-Line between Cut Bank and Havre, snow amounts increase heading east, however, there is only marginal (30-50%) confidence in snowfall amounts exceeding one inch. HREF probabilities of exceeding 2 inches in the areas immediately surrounding the Sweetgrass Hills sit at about 60%. But because these higher amounts are confined to a relatively small area, eastern Toole, Liberty, and Hill counties were not added to an advisory.

For Blaine and Fergus counties and Bears Paw Mountains, there is very good model support, especially in the HREF, for at least 2 inches of snow across a good portion of the region. Generally 1 to 4 inches of snow is expected with some locally higher amounts possible in the higher elevations of the Bears Paw Mountains. For now, there is not enough to support amounts much beyond 4 inches so an advisory fits this zone best based on the latest model guidance. One caveat with this section of the Winter Weather Advisory is Fergus county. The entire zone covers all the lower elevations of the county, however, the concern for winter weather impacts is really only in the eastern half of the county. In particular, there are concerns about US-191 east of Roy and along US-87 and MT-200 east of Lewistown Divide. Meanwhile, Lewistown proper is much less likely to see impactful amounts with the probability more than 2 inches of snow sitting at around 20%. -thor

AVIATION

27/00Z TAF Period

Initial concern this TAF period will be for continued gusty surface winds through the night over the plains. A more localized concern will be for blowing dust over the plains this evening, though this risk appears isolated at this time.

Further south in Central and Southwest Montana valleys, decoupling is favored which will result in light/variable winds developing after sunset. Low-level wind shear will be a concern in areas that see the light surface winds through the remainder of the evening.

Heading into the day Friday, there will be a cold front dropping south through the day, though the speed at which it progresses southward remains uncertain. Confidence is highest in this front reaching the KHVR area Friday morning, with low clouds and periods of light snow forecast through the remainder of the day there.

Mountain wave turbulence will continue through the night in most areas. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 35 49 25 39 / 0 10 30 20 CTB 28 40 13 31 / 10 30 50 20 HLN 30 51 29 50 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 27 55 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 13 38 13 42 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 26 53 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 25 37 15 31 / 10 50 80 30 LWT 33 46 22 38 / 0 20 40 40

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region- Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates of the Mountains-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northern Blaine County- Northern High Plains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass- Western and Central Chouteau County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM MST Saturday for East Glacier Park Region.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 11 AM MST Saturday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County below 4500ft-Northern Blaine County.