textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It will be windy this afternoon through Wednesday morning.

- It will be cooler on Wednesday and Thursday with a warm up for Friday and Saturday.

- Potential for thunderstorms across Southwestern and Central Montana on Saturday.

UPDATE

Satellite imagery this evening shows the compact mid-upper level low that brought strong winds to the area Tuesday afternoon continuing to track east across southern SK this evening. The associated surface cold front continues south through central MT this evening and will continue southward through southwest MT overnight, where temperatures are still mild along and south of I-90 but will cool to the 30s overnight behind the front. High wind warnings for all but eastern portions of north-central MT will expire at 9pm, though some gusts in excess of 30-40mph are still possible as the front passes through remaining portions of southwest MT overnight. A secondary upper level wave and enhanced NW mid-level flow will pass across eastern portions of north- central MT late tonight through Wednesday morning and is on track to bring another period of strong wind gusts there, mainly focused on areas near the higher terrain including the Bears Paw, Moccasin and Judith Ranges as well as areas east of the Snowies. Hoenisch

DISCUSSION

/Issued 523 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon an upper-level low associated with a surface cold front tracks along the Canadian/Montana Border. Low-level and mid- level winds are increasing this afternoon. The cold front is currently along the Hi-Line. This will lead to windy condtions across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana south of the Hi-Line this afternoon. See the Forecast Confidence & Scenarios section for more details on the winds. The cold front/upper-level low will bring isolated light rain/snow showers to North-central Montana Tuesday afternoon and evening. This afternoon across Southwestern Montana there is low potential for isolated rain/snow showers ahead of the surface cold front. With these showers there is the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder.

On Wednesday there will be an upper-level trough over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday due to the cold frontal passage and upper-level trough it will be colder across the area with light mountain snow. Wednesday morning strong winds will linger across Blaine and Fergus Counties. On Thursday there will be upper-level zonal flow with a brief upper-level shortwave over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring another day with cool temperatures and mostly dry weather. On Friday there will be upper-level zonal flow over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with mostly dry weather. On Saturday there is an upper- level ridge over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up. This combined with southwest flow aloft will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to portions of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Sunday and Monday an upper-level trough will begin to move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring cooler temperatures and more widespread precipitation to the area Sunday through Monday. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Across Gallatin and Madison Counties this afternoon there is a 10% chance for thunder. The cold front has made its way through portions of the Hi-Line this afternoon. As a result the High Wind Warnings for Glacier Toole, and Liberty Counties has been cancelled as the threat for strong winds has been nullified by the colder air that has moved into those areas. It is likely that at least some of the rest of the warnings for all but Fergus and Blaine Counties will be ended prior to the current warning end time of 9 PM. On Wednesday there is greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts in excess of 55 mph across portions of Blaine and Fergus County. As a result for the Bears Paw area and the lower-elevations of Fergus County a High Wind Warning was issued from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. See the WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES for details. -IG

AVIATION

08/00Z TAF Period

Gusty winds across the region will begin to down trend this evening. The cold front continues to push south into Southwest MT this evening, shifting winds to the north/northwest. A line of isolated showers across North-Central MT will bring a line of MVFR ceilings this evening. Once this passes, VFR ceilings prevail for the rest of the TAF period. The exception will be along the Hi- line, where scattered to broken MVFR ceilings will linger through Wednesday morning. -Wilson

FIRE WEATHER

Gusty southwest to west winds will combine with modestly low relative humidity to result in localized elevated fire weather concerns today. The areas of concern will be in areas that have seen little precipitation recently and have not had any greening up yet. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 27 51 29 53 / 30 0 10 10 CTB 22 49 24 51 / 20 0 20 0 HLN 29 59 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 28 59 31 60 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 26 56 28 59 / 10 0 0 10 DLN 30 62 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 26 48 26 53 / 10 10 20 0 LWT 25 46 27 50 / 30 0 10 20

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until noon MDT Wednesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County below 4500ft.