textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild through Sunday with windy conditions along the Rocky Mountain Front.

- Rain and snow develop along the Continental Divide tonight and gradually become more widespread Sunday night into Monday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 306 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Strong winds will continue across North-Central Montana through Sunday afternoon with the highest wind gusts expected along the Rocky Mountain Front. A High Wind Warning is in effect through Sunday morning with gusts up to 80 mph possible.

Precipitation will start along the Continental Divide tonight with a rain/snow mix transitioning to snow by early Sunday morning. Snow will start along the mountains of southwest Montana Sunday afternoon with precipitation spreading into most of the region by Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow levels Monday morning are expected to fall as low as 3500 to 4000 ft with the potential for mixed precipitation at lower elevations through the rest of the day. Precipitation will start to taper off Monday night through Tuesday morning with a return to drier conditions expected through the remainder of the week. The exception will be daily chances for isolated mountain snow showers.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

High Winds Today:

Winds continue to pick up along the Rocky Mountain Front with the strongest winds still expected to occur overnight. For the most part there was little change in the models compared to previous runs so there was no need to update or change the current High Wind Warning. The one wild card that only started appearing in the most recent model runs was the potential for some stronger wind gusts along the eastern portions of the Hi-Line. These winds showed up at the 700 mb level but when looking at the soundings there was not a whole lot of confidence that these strong winds would mix down to the surface. Thus, the zones including southern Blaine, the Bears Paw, and Fergus county were not added to any warnings but this will be something to watch as the event continues.

Snow:

One of the biggest changes that has occurred in the models over the past 24 hours is the snow is starting to shift to the south and heavier snow amounts are starting to become more likely for Central Montana, particularly the island mountain ranges. Snow totals for Southwest Montana stayed more or less the same with some slight fluctuations. There is still some concern that northwest flow could help areas like Bozeman over-perform a little bit from what is currently forecasted but there is still so much uncertainty in the snow levels and when the transition from rain to snow will occur that it is difficult to pinpoint the timing or what lower elevation locations will be the most impacted by snow.

Because there is so much fluctuation in where the heaviest amounts will be and generally so little confidence in whether any zones will reach Winter Storm Warning criteria, no watches will be issued at this time. That being said, there is a potential for heavy snow along the Continental Divide from the Canadian border through Southwest Montana as well as the island ranges of Central Montana including the Little Belts. Future model runs will help decide whether the threat for snow warrants any products.

Snow Squall Risk:

The risk for snow squalls on Monday morning went down just a touch but is still non-zero. The main decrease in confidence was the potential for frontogenesis went down a little bit with this round of models. But given that the rest of this event is still in flux it is hard to discredit the threat for snow squalls completely as there are still hints of convective snow banding occurring Monday morning, particularly in Southwest Montana.

In the meantime, folks in Southwest Montana, especially those traveling along the I-90 corridor Monday morning, need to be prepared for the potential of a snow squall moving through before noon. The main risks will be a sudden heavy snow with sudden reductions in visibility along with a flash freeze that will work to make the roads slick. -thor

AVIATION

08/00Z TAF Period

Strong cross barrier flow brings strong, gusty winds, mountain wave activity, and instances of low level wind shear, mostly along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I15 tonight and Sunday morning. KCTB will be most impacted by the winds between 08/08 and 08/16Z with gusts exceeding 50 kts at times. KGTF may also become gusty during this time frame with some gusts over 40 kts. General VFR conditions will prevail for this TAF period, but cloud cover and mountain obscuration increase heading towards 09/00Z. Most of the precipitation and degraded flight categories associated with this next weather system looks to occur Sunday night into Monday. - RCG

FIRE WEATHER

The main concern from today through Sunday will be the gusty winds and low afternoon humidity over North Central MT. The lowest humidity will occur today, with humidity in the teens along the I-15 corridor from Great Falls to Cut Bank. Also, winds will increase this afternoon, with strong winds in the Cut Bank area by this evening. This could result in difficult conditions to contain any new fire starts. Humidity should increase on Sunday, reducing the impact a bit. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 44 58 34 45 / 0 20 80 50 CTB 39 52 29 44 / 0 10 50 40 HLN 36 56 32 44 / 0 30 90 50 BZN 33 56 33 44 / 0 20 80 70 WYS 21 41 25 36 / 0 30 80 90 DLN 33 54 31 44 / 0 20 70 50 HVR 38 57 29 44 / 0 0 40 30 LWT 39 57 30 40 / 0 20 80 70

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 10 AM MST Sunday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.