textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A passing weather system brings gusty winds today with scattered snow showers, mostly impacting the central and southwest mountain passes.

- There will be additional periods of gusty winds and limited scattered shower activity through early next week, most notably Friday night into early Saturday.

- Temperatures will generally remain well above average for the next seven days.

UPDATE

/Issued 919 AM MST Wed Jan 28 2026/ Current forecast is on track, thus no updates planned for this morning. Scattered light rain/snow showers expected to move from west to east across the CWA this afternoon. Main impact will be scattered snow showers falling during the evening commute, along with slippery spots on roadways, especially higher elevations and shaded areas. Brusda

DISCUSSION

/Issued 919 AM MST Wed Jan 28 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Ridging aloft will be quickly displaced by a fast moving shortwave that will bring scattered snow showers this afternoon and evening. There's nothing overly impressive with this system, but there will be just enough Pacific moisture and colder air aloft for some brief, minor snow impacts, mostly over the central and southwest mountain passes. Breezy to windy conditions will also be present, with most locations seeing top wind gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range. Of course areas along the Rocky Mountain Front and their adjacent high plains will see gusts exceeding 50 mph at times.

Subsequent subtle passing waves will maintain variable clouds and breezy conditions Thursday and even into Friday despite ridging aloft being the primary weather influence and temperatures generally trending well above average. A more defined shortwave quickly approaches the Northern Rockies from the northwest Friday night into Saturday. This one looks to have stronger winds aloft with H700 winds exceeding 50 kts during the overnight hours. Mountain wave activity will be key in bringing localized strong wind gusts to the Rocky Mountain Front and the central MT mountains.

There will also be some isolated to scattered rain/snow showers Friday night and Saturday, mostly over the higher terrain along the Rocky Mountain Front and the central MT island ranges. The same general pattern of ridging aloft being occasionally interrupted by passing shortwaves will continue into next week with the next wave looking to arrive Monday into Tuesday. - RCG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow showers Wednesday afternoon and evening...

Snow showers associated with a passing shortwave will be most concentrated over central and southwest MT. Forecast soundings show saturation in the mid and upper level with H700 temps falling to around -10C, but maintain dry conditions in the lower levels. This should result in light snow mostly impacting the passes with accumulations generally running from trace amounts up to around an inch or so on the high end. Out of all the lower elevation locations the Bozeman area looks to be the candidate for potential light accumulations with around a 30% chance for a tenth of an inch or more of snow. Winds may also gust up to 30 mph at times late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Impacts will include brief periods of reduced visibility and slick roads. Given the lower snow amounts and impacts generally lasting less than 3 hours, no winter weather advisories are being considered at this time.

Stronger winds Friday night into early Saturday...

While there will certainly be periods of breezy to windy conditions along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains for virtually the entire 7 day forecast period, the strongest winds look to occur Friday night into early Saturday. H700 wind peak out of the WNW at around 50 to 60 kts during this time. Since this peak will be during the overnight hours there will be a heavier reliance on mountain wave activity to reach the surface. There's around a 90% chance for gusts exceeding 55 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front, which drops off to around 50% going towards the Cut Bank area. Areas along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front have around a 50% chance for gusts over 70 mph. The central mountain ranges and their lee side foothills and plains will also be susceptible to wind gusts exceeding 55 mph, although this is not really reflected in the NBM probabilities quite yet. - RCG

AVIATION

28/18Z TAF Period

A passing shortwave will bring lowering clouds and scattered snow showers today with the greatest coverage over central and southwest MT between 28/20 and 29/04Z. Mountains will increasingly become obscured during this time as will low VFR/MVFR flight categories. The focus of these degraded conditions will shift into KLWT and KHVR after 29/00Z. Gusty westerly winds will be most widespread along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains, but may briefly make a presence in the southwest while the precipitation is moving through. After 29/06Z, cloud decks start to gradually lift from southwest to northeast starting at KBZN and KEKS by 29/06Z, KGTF by 29/10Z, and KHVR and KLWT by 29/14Z. Low clouds are expected to remain around KHLN through the duration of the period leading to prolonged mountain obscuration in portions of central Montana. -RCG/thor

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 45 28 48 31 / 20 20 0 0 CTB 42 26 45 29 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 41 25 45 28 / 40 50 0 0 BZN 39 18 41 21 / 40 60 0 0 WYS 29 7 27 11 / 50 70 10 10 DLN 39 18 40 20 / 20 20 0 0 HVR 36 20 40 21 / 10 20 0 0 LWT 43 23 43 27 / 20 30 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.