textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- This afternoon and this weekend there will be isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area.

- It will be warm through this upcoming week with a brief cooldown on Sunday.

- It will be breezy this weekend across the area.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 532 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon an upper-level trough lingers over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Showers and thunderstorms will linger across portions of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Thursday evening an upper-level ridge builds back in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Friday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up with mostly dry weather. There is a low potential for very isolated showers/thunderstorms across North-central Montana Friday afternoon/evening. On Friday due to a strong surface pressure gradient it will be windy. Friday/Saturday morning a week cold front will move through and cool temperatures down slightly. On Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana with southwest flow aloft from an approaching upper-level trough. This will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area on Saturday. On Saturday due to a strong surface pressure gradient it will be windy. Saturday evening/Sunday morning a cold front associated with an upper-level trough will move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Sunday the upper-level trough remains over area. This combined with the cold front will bring cooler temperatures and rain showers to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday an upper-level ridge builds in over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warmer temperatures and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area Monday through Wednesday. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

On Saturday there is a 15 - 35% chance for thunderstorms along and south of a Havre to Great Falls to Helena line in North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Due to the cold front that moves through Friday night early Saturday morning there will be limited instability which will limit the threat for any severe thunderstorms. On Sunday there is a 15 - 25% chance for thunderstorms in Central and Southwestern Montana. On Monday there is a 20 - 40% chance for thunderstorms along and south of a Havre to Great Falls to Helena line in North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.

On Friday and Saturday there is greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater across Southwestern Montana and the plains west of I-15. On Friday along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front there is a 40 - 65% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. From Saturday morning through Monday morning there is a 60 - 80% chance for a quarter inch of rain or greater in Fergus and Judith Basin County. -IG

AVIATION

05/06Z TAF Period

Mostly clear skies during the TAF period with a few passing high clouds. Breezy southwest winds will increase late Friday morning through the early evening. -Wilson

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 44 79 48 72 / 0 0 10 20 CTB 41 71 43 66 / 0 0 0 30 HLN 44 79 48 74 / 0 0 0 20 BZN 42 82 46 80 / 0 0 0 20 WYS 35 74 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 43 81 46 78 / 0 0 0 20 HVR 45 79 47 75 / 10 0 10 10 LWT 42 79 45 76 / 20 0 10 40

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.