textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild winds and seasonally warm temperatures today, with small chances for precipitation scattered across Central and North- Central MT late tonight into tomorrow morning.

- Gusty winds return Tuesday across North-Central and Central MT, although not as strong as the winds this past weekend.

- Seasonally warm and dry throughout the rest of this week, with breezy conditions returning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 438 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Zonal flow aloft persists over the CWA today, allowing for seasonally average temperatures and mild winds. An upper level shortwave trough moves through the area tonight through tomorrow afternoon, bringing a surge of moisture with it. This will allow for low, but non-zero, chances of precipitation tonight scattered across the region, particularly over higher elevations and across the Golden Triangle. However, snow levels still remain above 6000 ft.

Increased moisture aloft is not the only thing the passage of this shortwave trough is bringing. It is also bringing another round of windy conditions on Tuesday, due to causing a tightening pressure gradient, both at the surface and aloft. These winds are not expected to be as strong as those this past weekend, with current forecasted gusts only being around 60-65 mph across the Rocky Mountain Front and 40-45 mph throughout the rest of North- Central MT.

By Tuesday night a strong upper level ridge begins to build over the Idaho Panhandle, and will slowly move east until its axis is centered over the Montana-Dakotas border by Friday afternoon. This will allow for temperatures to rise to seasonally warm values and for winds to mellow out, although relatively breezy stretches are still possible across the plains. However, it is hard to go more than a few days without windy conditions over Central/North- Central MT, and this case holds true once again for this weekend. The ridge begins to break down Saturday morning, and combined with another passage of a shortwave trough Saturday evening, will bring the potential for windy conditions to return over the weekend. Uncertainty still exists in how this ridge will breakdown, so not much can be said at this time in regards to how strong these winds may be. -Dzomba

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

As mentioned prior, cross barrier flow increases once again as the next wave progresses through the region. Orientation of the stronger flow aloft (southwesterly) is more favorable late Monday evening, though ridgetop stability will be weaker compared to Tuesday. This raises doubts that stronger winds will materialize at the surface near the Rocky Mountain Front Monday evening/night. As better ridgetop stability develops into Tuesday the stronger winds aloft trend more northwesterly. This orientation is less conducive to mixing stronger winds to the surface, but it will bear monitoring. -AM

There is a 50-70% chance of gusts greater than 65 MPH along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front on Tuesday, with those chances decreasing to only 20-40% for gusts greater than 75 MPH. Winds throughout the rest of Central/North-Central MT will be much less, with considerable chances dropping off rapidly beyond gusts of 40 MPH. The exception is the area of Great Falls south to the Little Belts, which still has a 40-60% chance of gusts greater than 50 MPH. -Dzomba

AVIATION

09/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period across all terminals. Mid to high-level clouds will continue to traverse east across the region leaving all terminals with broken to overcast conditions through the end of the TAF period. Isolated drizzle cannot be ruled out across the Rockies, but POPs remain low as surface dry air will largely evaporate any precip. Winds will remain calm through the 10/12z, before increasing with the arrival of our next disturbance. Tuesday morning will see elevated concerns of LLWS especially across the northern plains before winds begin to mix down with diurnal heating. Surface winds will continue to increase beyond the TAF period for all terminals. -JR

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 41 58 43 65 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 36 53 38 62 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 36 56 35 60 / 0 10 0 0 BZN 35 55 32 58 / 10 30 0 0 WYS 27 45 24 48 / 10 20 0 0 DLN 34 54 30 56 / 0 10 0 0 HVR 34 60 36 65 / 30 10 0 0 LWT 38 55 36 64 / 10 30 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.