textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler with scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms today.

- Risk of frost across portions of southwest and central Montana tonight.

- Dry and seasonably warm conditions Monday will be followed by another period of unsettled and cooler weather Tuesday through Thursday.

UPDATE

Morning update has been published, with the main change being to adjust PoPs to better match latest radar trends (i.e. increase PoPs across Central and North Central Montana) through the late morning hours. Otherwise the remainder of the forecast is on track, with strong and gusty southwest to west winds expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and across portions of Southwest Montana, generally along and southeast of a Monida Pass to Big Sky line. - Moldan

DISCUSSION

/Issued 533 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026/

A fairly potent shortwave pivots across the Northern Rockies today through the base of an unseasonably cool upper level trough/low lifting out into AB. A round of more widespread sowers moves through as the shortwave and colder air aloft move into the region, primarily this morning, with a showers lingering across eastern portions of the forecast area and along the continental divide into this afternoon. Snow levels sill look to fall to around 6000 ft by late this morning, which could result in some wet snow with little or no accumulation across some mountain passes, including MacDonald Pass and Kings Hill.

Gusty west winds developing behind the shortwave and afternoon temperatures mainly in the 50s today will feel unseasonably cool for early June. Partial clearing tonight and lighter winds across southwest MT will allow for efficient cooling and overnight low temps are likely to reach the lower 30s there and mid 30s to around 40 across the plains where breezy winds will persist tonight.

Monday will be mainly dry with temperatures returning to seasonal levels. An unseasonably strong upper level jet across the North Pacific sends a series of shortwaves into the NW US within a broad upper level trough that shifts across the Northern Rockies and MT Tuesday through Thursday. This will bring daily chances for showers and possibly some thunderstorms with temperatures again trending below seasonal averages. Hoenisch

AVIATION

07/12Z TAF Period

Showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking across portions of central MT early this morning will progress east through the late morning and afternoon. Expect a period of MVFR conditions with this activity across central/north-central MT with more isolated/brief conditions across SW MT terminals. Gusty west to northwest winds develop behind this activity at most terminals today with breezy/windy conditions persisting tonight across north-central MT terminals.Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 58 36 71 49 / 100 10 0 0 CTB 57 35 67 44 / 50 10 0 10 HLN 58 34 71 49 / 90 10 0 20 BZN 60 30 71 46 / 80 30 0 10 WYS 63 26 66 37 / 30 0 0 40 DLN 61 31 70 45 / 30 10 0 30 HVR 61 37 73 47 / 80 20 0 0 LWT 55 32 70 45 / 80 20 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.