textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Light mountain snow with isolated rain/snow showers at lower elevations continue through the rest of the day. - A storm system Tuesday will bring light to moderate mountain snow, light lower elevation snow, and gusty winds.

- Colder temperatures and slightly more active weather continues after Tuesday through the week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 228 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

An upper level wave will continue to bring light mountain snow along with isolated rain/snow showers at lower elevations through the evening. Most impacts from snow will remain above pass level with road temperatures sitting above freezing. However, any wet pavements overnight are likely to refreeze and cause slick roads.

There will be a lull in precipitation on Monday before the next system moves through. Increasing winds aloft will mix down breezy to gusty winds across Southwest MT on Monday. A broad, deepening trough from western British Columbia combining with a small wave from the Great Basin region will bring a more active and colder period to the region Tuesday through the week. The first, quick hitting shortwave and low pressure system begins to move in late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. This will bring a wave of minor to moderate mountain snow, with light snow at lower elevations through Tuesday evening. A mid and low level jet with this system will bring gusty winds to Southwest MT and the plains, which will bring blowing snow and visibility reduction concerns with snow Tuesday.

There will be a brief lull in snow late Tuesday evening. Though with the broad trough will making it's way through there will be additional instances of light to moderate snow Wednesday through Friday. The Tuesday system is expected to pull in colder air from Canada, and will bring near to below average temperatures through at least Wednesday and Thursday.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow System Tuesday:

Uncertainty remains in how this system will progress once it crosses east of the Continental Divide and into the North-Central MT plains. Models have been variable in snow totals east of Highway 89, with some solutions put a broad 2-4 inches of snow across the plains or keeps the snow mainly confined to the Rocky Mountain Front. This system is also fairly quick moving, which adds uncertainty into snow accumulations. This quicker hitting wave can keep snow rather limited across the plains. On the other hand, models do show good mid level frontogenesis to enhance snow rates along this wave. This makes having 2-4 inches along the plains not an unreasonable solution as well. Another factor with this system is the gusty winds resulting from the mid to low level jet and pressure gradient developing as this low deepens. Models do show decent chances for up to 40 to 50 mph brief wind gusts at times in Southwest MT, Rocky Mountain Front, and parts of North- Central MT Tuesday. This brings a concern for blowing/drifting snow and visibility reductions with snow. Taking into account where the best chances for minor impacts due to a few inches of snow with travel impacts from the winds, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the Rocky Mountain Front, down to the Gates of the Mountains, and the Sweet Grass Hills region Tuesday. Confidence lowers farther east if minor winter conditons develop. If models keep trending for minor impacts along and east of I-15, then an expansion may be needed down the road.

Better confidence for minor to moderate snow resides in the mountains along the Continental Divide and Southwest MT. There's a 30-40% chance for 5" of snow along Marias, Rogers, and Monida Pass and a 70% chance for Raynolds and Targhee Pass. Gusty winds will have the greatest impact on blowing snow and visibility concerns in the Southwest MT mountains passes Tuesday morning. Though the short window for gusty winds will likely keep impacts only minor to moderate. -Wilson

AVIATION

16/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions generally prevail for the TAF period, though some low- VFR cloud ceilings and periods of breezy westerly winds may occur in the vicinity of isolated showers through 16/03Z. There will also be mountain obscuration through the overnight hours, especially along the Continental Divide and over far southwest MT. While steadier southerly winds continue at KEKS, variable surface winds elsewhere also become more southerly late tonight into Monday. - RCG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 32 57 29 35 / 20 0 20 90 CTB 23 51 20 25 / 20 10 20 90 HLN 28 54 29 38 / 20 0 30 90 BZN 27 54 30 40 / 30 0 30 80 WYS 18 41 22 30 / 20 20 90 100 DLN 26 51 31 39 / 20 0 60 60 HVR 26 54 28 36 / 20 0 0 80 LWT 28 52 29 39 / 20 0 10 70

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Gates of the Mountains-Northern High Plains- Southern High Plains.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for East Glacier Park Region-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains.