textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist through at least the middle of next week with Monday expected to be the warmest day.

- Breezy at times on Monday with the potential for some elevated fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview:

Through the weekend, an upper-level ridge will build and make its way east towards Montana keeping the region warm and dry. A weak shortwave will move through Monday into Tuesday and flatten the ridge a bit which, combined with increased mid-level flow, will allow for breezy conditions along the Rocky Mountain Front into the northern plains on Monday. As the disturbance passes, temperatures will cool off about 10 degrees starting on Tuesday but still remain above normal as upper-level ridging quickly builds back through the end of the work week. Towards next weekend there are hints in the models that a pattern shift could arrive with the potential for cooler and wetter weather. But with models still diverging on how exactly this will play out, confidence in any one scenario is still low.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

There is high confidence in temperatures reaching the low 80s across many lower elevation locations on Monday with some locations, including Great Falls and Helena, expected to get within 5 degrees of the daily record. The warm temperatures combined with breezy conditions will increase fire weather concerns for the afternoon but given that the fuel condition is not critical, no products will be considered at this time.

Regarding the potential pattern shift next weekend, there have been some runs of both the GFS and ECMWF that have pointed towards mountain snow with an occasional run suggesting even some lower elevation snow in Southwest Montana. Because there is still a bit of a "windshield wiper" effect going on between model runs, with one run being more robust on the snow potential and the next one taking it away, it is highly recommended that folks take any mention of snow with a grain of salt until we get closer to next weekend. A pattern shift towards cooler and wetter conditions is possible, but confidence in any one scenario is low. -thor

AVIATION

03/06Z TAF Period.

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. A few isolated showers associated with a disturbances exiting SE AB overnight may affect the KHVR terminal with some patchy mid level clouds possible overnight as far south as KGTF and KLWT. OTherwise, just some scattered high level cloud-cover streams across the region. Surface winds become more northwesterly across the plains overnight with otherwise light winds expected through Saturday. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 68 41 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 64 36 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 70 41 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 71 37 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 70 30 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 72 40 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 68 37 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 67 40 77 51 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.