textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures persist through at least Saturday.

- Another breezy period this weekend, with strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front.

- Increasing confidence for a cooling trend early next week with a return of precipitation.

UPDATE

/Issued 825 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026/

Slight adjustments were made to the short-term forecast based on the latest model guidance and observation trends, but there were no major changes to the going forecast. It is still going to be very warm today. -thor

DISCUSSION

/Issued 825 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Highly anomalous upper level ridging continues across the west to close out the week. Temperatures take another step warmer today as a result, which will put some record temperatures for the entire month of February in jeopardy of being broken for some climate sites. Dry and mild conditions continue into Saturday as the ridge slowly loses its strength. In fact, by Saturday a wave progressing through the apex of the ridge will flatten it a bit, resulting in a zonal flow aloft and associated gusty winds at the surface across the plains.

The upper ridge weakens further and shifts eastward later this weekend, opening the door for a few disturbances to arrive in a west- southwest flow aloft. The initial wave primarily results in some precipitation along the Continental Divide Sunday before a more potent wave brings more widespread precipitation late Sunday into Monday.

Thereafter details become more murky with the evolution of the pattern. At this point the main takeaway for the middle of next week is at least low-end probabilities for mainly mountain precipitation at times, with temperatures much closer to average. -AM

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wind Saturday:

Increasing cross barrier flow and a strengthening pressure gradient will result in at least breezy winds Saturday into Sunday, particularly along the Rocky Mountain Front. The probability for a 55 mph gust in Cut Bank is roughly 40% over this timeframe, increasing to 80% along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rockies. BUFKIT soundings show favorable profiles for mountain wave activity, so the risk for winds will persists through the entire night Saturday into Sunday.

Precipitation Sunday into Monday:

While confidence is high in a period of cooling and precipitation, the overall amounts are still uncertain. At this point, the only mountains with a better than 50% probability for 6 inches of snow Sunday through early Tuesday morning are south of Bozeman and east of Dillon in Southwest Montana. -AM

AVIATION

05/18Z TAF Period

High pressure will keep VFR and dry conditions through the forecast period. Breezy winds will peak in the early afternoon across North-Central MT before becoming calm late afternoon/early evening. Mostly clear skies expected through the TAF period with a few higher clouds passing through. -Wilson

FIRE WEATHER

Mild temperatures and modestly low afternoon humidities will continue into the weekend. Breezy winds early today over the plains trend less breezy through the afternoon. A period of gusty winds then develops Saturday into Sunday, which will result in increased grassland fire risk over the plains. -AM

CLIMATE

Numerous locations have the potential of setting new all time record high temperatures for the month of February this week. The table below reflects the current all time record high temperature for the month of February for select climate sites across the CWA.

LOCATION Cut Bank 71F set on February 27, 1992 Havre 74F set on February 27, 1992 Great Falls 70F set on February 27, 1992 and February 27, 1932 Lewistown 70F set on February 27, 1932 Helena 69F set on February 24, 1995 and February 27, 1932 Bozeman 66F set on February 24, 1995 Dillon 64F set on February 27, 1988 and February 28, 1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 32 66 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 28 62 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 30 58 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 28 60 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 11 47 17 42 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 29 60 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 27 53 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 31 64 37 63 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.