textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms today.

- Snow tonight and Monday in the mountains, with most of the snow accumulations at higher elevations.

- A bigger spring storm still expected Wed into Thu over much of Central and Southwest MT, with snow likely at all elevations.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1146 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026/

- Meteorological Overview: Another upper level disturbance will move northward towards Southwest MT on Sunday morning. This disturbance will then move northeastward across the CWA Sunday night into Monday morning. Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to accompany this disturbance. Because the instability will be lower on Sunday, I am not expecting any severe storms at this time. The rain will change to snow at higher elevations Sunday night into Monday morning.

For Tuesday, much of the area will be in between storm systems. This will result in mostly dry conditions over the CWA, but do expect an increase in winds, especially over North Central MT.

For Wednesday, it will be windy over North Central MT, ahead of the next upper level trof. The upper level trof will slide southeastward across the CWA on Thursday. Much cooler/well below normal temperatures will accompany this upper level trof. The airmass will be cold enough that snow should fall at all elevations by Thursday. At this time, some qpf amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches, with isolated areas around an inch will be possible, especially at the higher elevations over Central and Southwest MT.

For Friday through next Sunday...an upper level ridge will try to build over the Northern Rockies for a few days. This will result in a drier conditions for next weekend, along with a gradual warming trend. This ridge is likely to be short lived, as forecast models are showing this ridge breaking down rather quickly by late next weekend. Brusda

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: For tonight into Monday, snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches look possible over Kings Hill pass. With most of the snow accumulations right near the top of the pass, no advisory will be issued at this time. Overall, current thinking is to issue an SPS for this event.

There is a 40 percent that wind gusts could reach warning criteria on Wednesday along the Rocky Mountain Front and in the Cut Bank area. With the probability for warning type wind gusts remaining less than 50 percent, no high wind statements will be issued at this time.

For Wed into Thu, there is a 70 percent chance for snow accumulations to exceed 3 inches in the mountains. Additionally, all elevations should switch over to all snow by Thursday. It is possible that winter statements might be needed for this event. Brusda

AVIATION

12/12Z TAF Period

Focus for the 1212/1312 TAF period will be on increasing coverage of precipitation between 18-24z this afternoon along and south of KGTF to KLWT line as a disturbance crosses over the Northern Rockies, with precipitation then expanding north beyond 00z Monday. Isolated thunderstorms, especially between 12/18z and 13/03z, will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds; however, confidence in one of these isolated storms approaching any given terminal is low. VFR conditions prior to 15z-18z today will fall to MVFR/low-VFR along and north of the Montana Hwy 200 corridor as a cold front moves south and low CIGS filter in across North Central and Central Montana. Mountains will be obscured throughout the TAF period. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 58 38 57 39 / 40 80 80 30 CTB 50 31 59 37 / 10 30 40 10 HLN 60 37 55 35 / 70 80 80 20 BZN 63 33 55 32 / 70 50 70 30 WYS 54 28 46 25 / 70 50 70 40 DLN 61 33 53 31 / 60 50 60 10 HVR 58 35 55 36 / 10 60 60 30 LWT 59 36 53 35 / 70 90 80 40

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.