textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry and breezy conditions expected into early next week, with temperatures cooling a bit by late next week.

- Little to no precipitation for much through next week.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: An area of high pressure will reside in the Great Basin for at least another week. This will result in very warm afternoon temperatures, low humidity, and little to no precipitation over Southwest or North Central MT into early next week. By later next week the trend is for afternoon temperatures to start to cool a bit, even going a bit below normal by late next week. Additionally, precipitation will start to be possible from north to south starting late Monday. However, with the airmass very dry, precipitation amounts will be very light, with any storms generally producing less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Any upper level disturbance that moves across the CWA over the next week or so is expected to be a very weak disturbance. Thus the chances for any precipitation are mostly less than 10 percent across the CWA for the next week. A few areas have a 40 percent chance for a thunderstorm by late next week, but any storms that do develop are going to be mostly on the dry side, producing very minimal precipitation.

A few locations could approach record high temperatures over Southwest MT today/Saturday. Brusda

AVIATION

08/12Z TAF Period

Wildfire smoke will be the main weather impact over the Central and Southwest portions of the CWA through the period. Visibility could fall below 2SM at times over Southwest MT. Expect mountains/passes to be obscured across the CWA through the period.

For GTF: The probability for cross winds exceeding 15 knots is below criteria on Friday afternoon. Overall, mid level winds below 700 mph should be 15 knots or less on Fri. Combined with smoke moving through, the probability of mixing from higher than 700 mb is low at this time. Brusda

FIRE WEATHER

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the southern districts for today through Saturday. The combination of gusty afternoon winds, low humidity and hot temperatures will create critical fire weather conditons. Because of all the smoke, some locations might not mix the winds aloft on Fri/Sat. Overall, no precipitation is expected through Sunday, with small chances for precipitation developing from north to south starting on Monday. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 91 56 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 86 52 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 95 57 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 95 55 95 54 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 89 45 88 45 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 92 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 89 52 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 87 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT Saturday for Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest- Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest.