textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

-Today it will be slightly cooler than yesterday with temperatures warming up to well above seasonal averages on Friday and Saturday

-It will be windy across North-central Montana on Saturday.

-It will be dry through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 205 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Today an upper-level trough briefly moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Today temperatures across North- central Montana will cool down slightly compared to yesterday. It will be dry today. On Friday an upper-level ridge moves over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This brings warm temperatures and dry weather to the area on Friday. On Friday temperatures will be well above seasonal averages.

On Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry temperatures to the area on Saturday. On Saturday the low-level and mid-level winds increase combined with the upper-level ridge flattening. This will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15.

On Sunday there will be zonal flow (west-east) over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures with mostly dry weather. On Monday an upper-level ridge briefly builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with mostly dry weather. Tuesday through Wednesday there will be persistent troughing around Montana which will bring cooler temperatures and some precipitation to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

On Saturday there is a 50 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the plains west of I-15. On Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 50 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 70 mph or greater. Along the higher peaks of the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. Additionally the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) has a standardized anomaly of 3 for 700 mb wind Saturday afternoon across the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. Models continue to show in excess of 60 to 70 kt 700 mb winds over the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15 Saturday afternoon and evening. As a result a High Wind Watch has been issued for the plains west of I-15 and the Rocky Mountain Front from 9AM Saturday through 12AM Sunday. On Saturday across the rest of North-central Montana there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater. For winds across the Hi-Line east of I-15 there is currently a low chance to reach and/or exceed high wind criteria but if the strong 700 mb winds move east faster than models are currently depicting a High Wind Watch could be needed for the Hi- Line east of I-15. -IG

AVIATION

15/12Z TAF Period

Low to mid-level cloudiness will continue through mid-morning behind a cold front before diminishing by early afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds over portions of the plains will slowly diminish through the day, yielding light and variable winds by sunset for most areas. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 48 34 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 45 26 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 44 28 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 41 24 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 47 18 57 19 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 41 26 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 48 23 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 43 28 68 44 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front.