textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record breaking temperatures expected across much of the lower elevations on Thursday.

- Highs across the lower elevations remain in the upper 50s to low 60s through the weekend before cooling off as a series of weather disturbances arrive starting on Saturday and lasting through early next week.

- Precipitation chances return by Saturday night to the Continental Divide, with chances expanding further east into early next week.

- Strong and gusty winds will be possible along the Rocky Mountain Front on Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 304 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging will dominate over the Northern Rockies through the end of the work week, which will help to support continued dry conditions and well above normal temperatures across all of Southwest through North Central Montana. By Saturday a shortwave lifting northeast from over the Eastern Pacific will help to flatten the upper level ridge as it moves over the Northern Rockies, with quasi-zonal to southwest flow remaining in place through the day on Sunday. While temperatures will continue to run well above normal beneath this pattern the chance for precipitation will begin to increase along the Continental Divide during the overnight hours of Saturday and through the day on Sunday. A potent shortwave sliding east within the aforementioned flow from Sunday night through Monday will help to support increasing precipitation chances across all elevations. Precipitation chances will linger through Tuesday and Wednesday along the Continental Divide and across the mountains of Southwest Montana. - Moldan

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

There is continuing high confidence in near-record and record- breaking warmth on Thursday with a few locations potentially breaking their all-time February high. Generally temperatures are expected to plateau around the low 70s, however, in known warmer areas such as Fort Benton, there is a low probability that temperatures could potentially get as high as 75 degrees.

Temperatures will cool off slightly heading into Friday and Saturday but otherwise remain in the upper 50s to low 60s across much of the lower elevations. The only thing that breaks us out of this warmer spell and brings temperatures back closer to normal will be a series of shortwaves starting this weekend with the cold front expected to pass through Sunday night into Monday. Precipitation will generally come in the form of mountain snow with lower elevation rain with a chance for some mixed precipitation in the valleys of southwest Montana. But, for now, there is high uncertainty as to how the event will play out so there is low confidence in any precipitation amounts at this point in time. -thor

AVIATION

05/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail this TAF period under mainly high level cloudiness. Breezy winds diminish somewhat overnight before returning over the plains on Thursday. -AM

FIRE WEATHER

Mild temperatures, with highs running anywhere from 25 to 35 degrees above normal, and low afternoon relative humidity values of between 20-40% will help to support elevated fire weather concerns across much of Southwest through North Central Montana, especially across the grasslands where the ground is snow free. The elevated concerns will be the highest along the Rocky Mountain Front today where frequent wind gusts in excess of 40 mph will occur. - Moldan

CLIMATE

Numerous locations have the potential of setting new all time record high temperatures for the month of February this week. The table below reflects the current all time record high temperature for the month of February for select climate sites across the CWA.

LOCATION Cut Bank 71F set on February 27, 1992 Havre 74F set on February 27, 1992 Great Falls 70F set on February 27, 1992 and February 27, 1932 Lewistown 70F set on February 27, 1932 Helena 69F set on February 24, 1995 and February 27, 1932 Bozeman 66F set on February 24, 1995 Dillon 64F set on February 27, 1988 and February 28, 1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 41 68 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 40 67 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 33 60 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 30 61 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 11 47 13 47 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 31 60 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 36 63 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 39 68 32 63 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.