textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and unsettled weather pattern continues with periods of showers and possible afternoon thunderstorms through Wednesday night and likely again Friday night into Saturday.

- Breezy to windy conditions today through Wednesday with locally strong winds possible across portions of central Montana on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 318 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

An active North Pacific Jet will continue to drive a series of shortwave disturbances through large scale upper level troughing that gradually shifts inland and across the region through early this weekend, bringing periods of unsettled conditions along with generally cool and breezy to windy conditions at times.

An initial Pacific cold front moves east across the area this morning with a better coverage of showers along the continental divide and southwest MT but brings the onset of breezy to windy conditions to most areas. A secondary push of colder air in the mid-upper levels surges east across the area this afternoon and evening supporting scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms, favoring areas from southwest MT through eastern portions of central MT. The main upper level low/trough with this initial series of shortwaves shifts across the Northern Rockies Wednesday, bringing additional cooling along with windy conditions and some showers, mainly across north-central MT later Wednesday afternoon and overnight as moisture wraps around the back side of the upper trough. Snow levels will lower to around 7000 ft today and may fall to as low as 6000 ft Wednesday, though any mountain snowfall is likely to be brief with little accumulation. A drier period follows Thursday through at least early Friday before the next series of shortwaves begins to move in from the NW later Friday and Saturday.

Confidence in the upper level pattern decreases later this weekend into next week, but most longer range model ensembles favor upper level ridging briefly amplifying offshore of the Pacific NW/BC by early next week. This could bring some warming but also maintains a northwesterly flow aloft with potential for additional disturbances to move through and a risk for showers and thunderstorms. Hoenisch

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

While most areas will see windy conditions on Wednesday, a belt of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow will bring locally stronger winds to much of central/north-central MT, where a High Wind Watch is in effect. Confidence in widespread strong (>50mph) wind gusts is low, but there are several embedded wind maximums to move through between early Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon. The early Wednesday morning wind maximum favors mountain wave enhanced winds along and east of the Rocky Mtn Front while the later afternoon wind maximum favors localized stronger winds across portions of central MT, particularly near the island mountian ranges. Hoenisch

AVIATION

09/12Z TAF Period

A Pacific cold front moves through the region this morning with a period of showers and MVFR conditions most likely at SW MT terminals. Surface westerly winds increase behind the front and become gusty this afternoon with additional scattered showers and and isolated thunderstorms tracking east across mainly central and southwest MT this afternoon. Brief MVFR conditions and locally stronger wind gusts will accompany heavier showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. Widespread mid-level cloud-cover and areas of mountian obscuration improve tonight but breezy to windy conditions persist, especially across north-central MT. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 70 45 59 44 / 20 0 70 70 CTB 65 42 54 41 / 10 10 80 60 HLN 68 43 58 43 / 50 10 20 40 BZN 68 37 57 37 / 70 60 40 20 WYS 56 28 51 25 / 100 60 60 10 DLN 66 36 56 33 / 40 20 30 0 HVR 75 45 61 43 / 10 10 60 100 LWT 69 40 57 39 / 50 40 30 90

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.