textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It will be warm through Friday with a slight cooldown this weekend.

- It will be windy at times through this weekend.

- It will be dry through Sunday with precipitation chances returning early next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 226 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon an upper-level ridge will begin to move over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep warm temperatures over the area. However it will be the 'coolest' day of this week. Wednesday through Friday the upper-level ridge will remain over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up each day through Thursday with mostly dry weather. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days of this forecast period with high temperatures approaching or exceeding record highs for many locations. On Friday northwest flow aloft will cool down temperatures slightly. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning the surface pressure gradient will increase which will bring another round of windy conditions to the Rocky Mountain Front. On Saturday the upper-level ridge flattens which cools temperatures down slightly. On Sunday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. As a result it will remain warm and dry across the area on Sunday. On Saturday due to the upper-level ridge flattening and moving to the east it will be windy. Early next week temperatures are trending closer to normal with the potential for precipitation. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

On Wednesday and Thursday there is greater than a 80% chance for high temperatures of 60 degrees or greater across much of North- central Montana. On Wednesday there is a 30 - 50% chance for high temperatures of 60 degrees or greater across the valleys of Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday there is a 50 - 80% chance for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater from Shelby to Great Falls to Lewistown. On Thursday there is greater than an 60% chance for high temperatures of 60 degrees or greater in the valleys of Southwestern Montana. On Thursday from Shelby to Great Falls to Lewistown there is greater than a 80% chance for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater. On Thursday there is a 30 - 40% chance for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater in the valleys of Southwestern Montana. On Thursday from Shelby to Great Falls to Lewistown there is a 50 - 80% chance for high temperatures of 70 degrees or greater. On Friday across most of the lower-elevations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana there is greater than a 60% chance for high temperatures of 60 or greater. On Friday from Great Falls to Lewistown along the Montana Highway 200/US Highway 87 Corridor and across the Gallatin Valley there is greater than a 50% chance for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater. On Friday from Great Falls to Lewistown along the Montana Highway 200/US Highway 87 Corridor there is a 50 - 70% chance for high temperatures of 70 degrees or greater. -IG

AVIATION

04/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions continue as a strong upper level ridge develops over the Western CONUS. Expect just some mid and upper level clouds to stream overhead with westerly winds to 25kts (35kts at KCTB) Wednesday afternoon across the plains. Ludwig

FIRE WEATHER

Early season mild temperatures are expected from Wednesday through Friday of this week. It will be breezy during the afternoon hours, along with humidity less than 20 percent at times. These conditions could make it a bit difficult to contain any new wildfires in grassy areas. Brusda

CLIMATE

Numerous locations have the potential of setting new all time record high temperatures for the month of February this week. The table below reflects the current all time record high temperature for the month of February for select climate sites across the CWA.

LOCATION Cut Bank 71F set on February 27, 1992 Havre 74F set on February 27, 1992 Great Falls 70F set on February 27, 1992 and February 27, 1932 Lewistown 70F set on February 27, 1932 Helena 69F set on February 24, 1995 and February 27, 1932 Bozeman 66F set on February 24, 1995 Dillon 64F set on February 27, 1988 and February 28, 1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 52 34 64 42 / 0 0 10 0 CTB 50 32 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 51 30 58 33 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 49 25 56 33 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 37 10 41 18 / 20 0 0 0 DLN 49 27 56 32 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 48 27 58 39 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 46 28 62 40 / 10 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.