textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy winds for Tuesday, with windy conditions picking up early Wednesday morning through Friday.

- Chinook winds continue warmer temperatures through the work week.

- Daily chances for mountain snow continues through the week, with the heaviest snow falling along the Continental Divide.

- There will light lower elevation rain/snow for mainly Central and Southwest MT Tuesday and Wednesday, with a few snow squalls possible Wednesday morning.

- Colder temperatures look to return next weekend along with some snow.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1204 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Westerly flow aloft is weakening heading into Tuesday. Therefore, winds aren't expected to be as strong as Monday's winds. Westerly flow aloft will continue to stream in moisture over the Continental Divide. This will keep steady snowfall throughout the day Tuesday, with most of the additional snow during the overnight and morning hours. A front has helped spread the precipitation farther east along the plains this evening, and will continue to fill in as it pushes south. Marginal morning temperatures though will likely keep things a rain/snow mix across lower elevations. Any snow accumulations will be light as a result.

Late Tuesday/early Wednesday morning, the mid level jet picks back up through Friday, which will bring a window for strong winds across much of the region. A cold frontal passage Wednesday morning will help mix these winds down to the surface as well as bring a band of snow/snow showers in Central and Southwest MT. Small amounts of instability brings the concerns for convective snow showers and squalls Wednesday morning.

Peak winds look to move through the Thursday and Friday morning time frame, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. Precipitation Thursday remains mostly along the Northern Continental Divide. Friday, an arctic front will help cut off the winds, winding down the stretch of windy conditions for the weekend. This front will also bring back a colder airmass with snow along. There remains model variability in how far south this front goes, which will ultimately determine how far south the cold air makes it along with the snow.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow/Rain Tuesday:

Over the mountains, most of the moderate snowfall will happen through Tuesday morning. This will produce an additional couple of inches at and above mountain passes. There will be lingering light snow throughout the afternoon, but warming road temperatures should keep any additional accumulations light. Therefore, the current Winter Weather Advisories remain on track.

Winds Wednesday Through Friday:

There is still pretty good confidence for impactful winds developing Wednesday through Friday. The first round will likely be along the frontal passage Wednesday morning. The cold front and accompanying snow bands/snow showers will try to mix down the stronger mid level winds down to the surface. A strong pressure gradient also building will create strong winds along the Continental Divide through the I-90 corridor. This will keep strong winds through the day Wednesday. One thing that has changed from the previous forecast is models did downtrend the mid level jet a bit and as a result, probabilities went down slightly. However, the overall synoptic set up still looks good enough to produce strong winds Wednesday. Probabilities for 80 mph winds still range between 40-90% for the Rocky Mountain Front. Probabilities for 58 mph go up to 50-80% chances for North- Central MT through Southwest MT.

Models still hone in on Thursday/Friday morning having the peak winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. 700 mb winds peak to 70-80kts throughout this time frame, with the strongest winds over the Rocky Mountain Front. Higher end scenarios still show gusts can exceed 90- 100 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will create dangerous cross-winds to those traveling. Parts of the North-Central MT plains have up to a 40-60% chance for 70 mph winds during this time frame as well. The high wind watches still remains in effect, with timings likely will be adjusted when there is better confidence in identifying the "lulls" in the strongest winds. The Helena Valley and Northern Blaine County was also added to the watch for Thursday due to increasing confidence in the strong mid level jet winds reaching to those locations.

Snow Tuesday Night Through Wednesday:

Beginning Tuesday evening, snow showers will start to cross over the Continental Divide into Southwest MT ahead of the cold front. The most impactful snow will likely be along the frontal passage Wednesday morning as there is a better chance for convective snow bands/snow squalls to form. Best chances for snow squalls look to be in Southwest MT, where there is better instability. The timing of the front remains a little uncertain, with recent models now progressing this front a few hours earlier in the morning. Regardless of the front timing, expect impacts to the Wednesday morning commute, especially along mountain passes. -Wilson

AVIATION

24/12Z TAF Period

Moist westerly flow continues to stream east across the Northern Rockies and MT with widespread mountain obscuration and areas of precipitation developing across central and southwest MT this morning as an emebedded weather disturbance moves through. Expect widespread low-VFR/MVFR ceilings across central and southwest MT terminals this morning with a period rain/snow showers most likely to occur across areas south of a line from KHLN to KLWT in the 14-18z period. Snow levels range from around 4000 ft across N-central MT to around 5000 ft across SW MT with primarily snow at KLWT but more likely rain showers with a mix/transition to wet snow possible at KBZN. Precipitation diminishes and ceilings improve from west to east this afternoon. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 46 31 49 35 / 20 20 10 0 CTB 43 25 44 30 / 0 10 0 0 HLN 47 31 47 27 / 40 50 40 0 BZN 49 32 49 23 / 70 40 60 0 WYS 37 28 39 12 / 90 50 90 10 DLN 48 33 45 22 / 40 20 50 0 HVR 41 21 49 28 / 0 10 0 0 LWT 40 28 44 28 / 50 50 20 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for East Glacier Park Region-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Northern Blaine County-Western and Central Chouteau County.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft- Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Canyon Ferry Area- Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Madison River Valley-Meagher County Valleys-Missouri Headwaters.