textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

-It will be windy today and slightly cooler than Saturday with critical fire weather conditions lingering across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.

-Temperatures will cool off significantly for Monday and will remain cool on Tuesday.

-It will be dry through this work week with temperatures warming back up by Thursday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1241 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026/

- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:

Due to gusty winds overnight it will remain relatively warm overnight across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Today an upper-level trough is over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. In addition an upper-level low will track across southern Alberta into Saskatchewan through the day today. Due to the dry cold front that moved through yesterday afternoon/evening it will be slightly cooler today. Today strong low-level and mid- level winds remain across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with a strong surface pressure gradient will bring windy conditions to the area today with the strongest winds in Glacier County. It will be mostly dry today. This evening through early Monday morning a secondary upper-level trough associated with a Canadian cold front will move through North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring light precipitation to the Rocky Mountain Front tonight in the form of snow on some mountain peaks. Sunday evening there will be isolated light rain showers in Judith Basin and Fergus County. On Monday the upper-level trough begins to exit the area. On Monday it will be dry and cool with temperatures well-below seasonal averages. On Monday it will be breezy across North-central Montana.

On Tuesday there is zonal flow over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up a few degrees with dry weather. On Wednesday an upper-level ridge begins to build in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up with mostly dry weather. Thursday through Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow warm temperatures to persist with mostly dry weather. -IG

- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:

On Sunday there is greater than a 80% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph along the northern Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. As a result a High Wind Warning remains in effect for those areas until noon today. On Sunday across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana there is greater than a 80% chance for wind gusts of 35 mph or greater. This combined with widespread minimum relative humidity of 15% leads to Red Flag Warnings remaining in affect for all of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana through 9 PM this evening. See the Fire Weather Section for more details. On Monday across most of the Hi-Line there is greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts of 35 mph or greater.

Tonight into early Monday morning there is a 10 - 30% for a trace or snow on the mountain peaks of the eastern portion of Glacier National Park. Tonight into Monday morning there is a 10 - 30% chance for a tenth of an inch of rain across Fergus and southern Judith Basin County. On Monday across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana there is greater than an 80% chance for high temperatures less 75 degrees. On Monday there is greater than a 50% chance for high temperatures less than 70 degrees along the Hi-Line. -IG

AVIATION

02/12Z TAF Period

Mountain wave activity will slowly wane this morning near the Rocky Mountain Front as daytime mixing ensues. Breezy surface winds develop across the region through the morning and early afternoon before subsiding near sunset this evening. A cold front will result in a sharp wind shift to a more northerly direction over the plains late this evening and overnight. While some low clouds will accompany the front, confidence in MVFR cigs was too low to warrant mention in TAFs at this time.

For KGTF: Breezy westerly winds develop through the morning, slowly turning more northwesterly through the afternoon and early evening. The probability for a 15kt+ cross-wind remains low through early afternoon, but increases to above 50% by late afternoon and early evening before winds diminish near sunset. A cold front moving southward over the plains late this evening will result in a push of gusty northerly winds arriving some time between 06Z and 07Z and persisting into the early morning. Increased humidity in the 0C to -10C layer will result in at least brief/minor icing concerns by early Monday morning. -AM

FIRE WEATHER

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across all fire weather districts. Although cooler temperatures are forecast today, very low relative humidity will persist. This combined with gusty winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions. A cold front will move through the area this evening and bring a sharp wind shift from westerly to more northerly. -IG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 85 51 70 47 / 0 0 10 0 CTB 74 45 67 43 / 0 10 10 0 HLN 84 50 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 90 49 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 85 39 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 87 46 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 85 48 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 84 49 66 43 / 0 20 10 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-Hill and Blaine Counties-Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front- Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest.

High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Northern High Plains.

Extreme Heat Warning until noon MDT today for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County below 4500ft-Western and Central Chouteau County.