textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring cooling temperatures through the day on Thursday to all locations, along with strong north winds to the plains of Central and North Central Montana.

- A light rain/snow mix or snow is possible along the cold front on Thursday, most notably over the Island Ranges of Central Montana.

- Temperatures moderate over the weekend after near normal highs on Friday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 222 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

H500 ridge over the Northern Rockies today will shift westward and back over the western seaboard by Thursday as a shortwave over the Gulf of Alaska crests the ridge axis in Northern BC/Alberta and digs southeast over the Northern High Plains through Thursday night. At the surface a cold front will dive south and through North Central Montana during the mid- to late morning hours and Central and Southwest Montana during the afternoon hours on Thursday. This front will bring cooler, near normal, temperatures to all locations for the day on Friday, along with a period of strong and gusty north winds to areas east of the I-15 corridor over the plains of Central and North Central Montana. Additionally, a period of light rain/snow mix or snow is possible along the southward advancing front, most notably in the northerly upslope areas of Central Montana, but any accumulations will be minor.

Temperatures will begin to moderate across Southwest through North Central Montana through the weekend and early next week as upper level ridging amplifies over the western seaboard and predominately dry, northwest flow resides over the Northern Rockies. - Moldan

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

High Winds Thursday and Thursday night...

Climate anomaly indicators such as the NAEFS and ECMWF EFIs continue to support to the potential for a climatologically unusual wind event from the afternoon hours on Thursday through Friday morning in wake of a southward advancing cold front, generally along and northeast of a line from Judith Gap to the Sweet Grass Hills. H850 winds per NAEFS analysis are prog'd to reach between 35-45kts, which combined with strong pressure rises and cold air advection in wake of the aforementioned front could lead to the transport of these low level winds to the surface. NBM probabilities for wind gusts in excess of 48kts continue to run/have increased to in excess of a 70% chance on the downwind/downsloping side of the Island Ranges (i.e. Sweet Grass Hills, Bears Paw, Highwoods, Judith, and Snowy) of Central and North Central Montana, along with extreme northeastern portions of Northern Blaine County.

A High Wind Watch remains in effect for the Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine, Fergus County below 4500ft, and Northern Blaine County from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night given the potential for strong north winds; with additional High Wind Watches now in effect from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night for Eastern Toole and Liberty Counties, Hill County, and Judith Basin County and Judith Gap. Areas that will see the strongest north winds through these timeframe will once again be in lee of the Island Ranges, along with any terrain gaps where the the north winds will be funneled through and subsequently enhanced. - Moldan

AVIATION

15/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the duration of the TAF period, but mid- to upper level cloudiness will increase this evening over the plains of Central and North Central Montana as a weak disturbance moves southeast within northwest flow aloft.

CLIMATE

The all time record high temperature for January for Great Falls is 67 degrees. There is a 20 percent chance the high temperature could go above the current forecast today of 62 and reach the all time for January of 67 degrees.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 34 45 20 37 / 20 20 20 0 CTB 31 41 17 36 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 28 47 20 37 / 0 0 10 0 BZN 23 47 15 33 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 6 35 4 28 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 26 48 17 36 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 28 40 18 31 / 10 20 0 0 LWT 32 44 17 31 / 10 30 10 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for Eastern Toole and Liberty-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.

High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County below 4500ft-Northern Blaine County.