textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with near normal temperatures Today.

- An active, cooler week forecasted.

- Gusty winds develop along the Rocky Mountain Front Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1132 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

As the main trough axis moves off to the east, an area of high pressure moves into the region. As a result, there will be dry conditions Monday, with temperatures near normal. There will be a concern for frost across North-Central MT with some Southwest MT valleys having a concern for a hard freeze this morning. Tuesday through Thursday, an upper- level trough will impact the region. This will bring on and off precipitation over that time frame. Southwest flow Tuesday will advect in weak instability, which will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop. Cold air aloft working it's way down will cool temperatures to below normal Wednesday. Snow levels falling as low as 6,500ft Wednesday morning will allow for light snow to fall at the higher mountain peaks. 700mb winds increase along the Rocky Mountain Front late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Gusty winds will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front and North-Central MT.

After that system exits, another wave tries to move into the region. Models do diverge a little bit this weekend, but generally it looks to trend more active with temperatures near to slightly below average through the beginning of next week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Models do have the 700mb jet increasing to 40 to 50kts late Tuesday into Wednesday morning along the Rocky Mountian Front. These winds do spread a bit farther out to Central MT on Wednesday, spreading out the gusty winds to the east. However, probabilities for high winds is low, with up to a 20 to 40% chance for 50 mph winds across North- Central MT and a 60% chance at Judith Basin County. Along the Rocky Mountain Front there's a 40-60% chance for 58 mph wind gusts Wednesday.

It seems like the best area to get precipitation is Southwest MT where they have a 40-70% chance for 0.5" of precipitation Tuesday through Thursday. Everywhere else, there is generally between a 30 to 70% chance for 0.1" of precipitation during this time frame. -Wilson

AVIATION

08/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through most of the TAF period with just some areas of high clouds moving in through this afternoon. Mid to high level cloud-cover streams in tonight as moisture increases within a southwesterly flow aloft with showers moving into SW MT terminals after 08z Tue. West to southwest surface winds remain breezy across N-central MT though early this afternoon with winds turning east to southeasterly this evening. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 72 49 70 46 / 0 0 30 10 CTB 68 46 65 43 / 0 0 0 10 HLN 72 50 68 45 / 0 10 80 10 BZN 72 48 67 38 / 0 10 90 90 WYS 65 37 55 29 / 0 70 100 90 DLN 70 47 66 37 / 0 30 50 50 HVR 73 48 75 46 / 0 0 10 10 LWT 70 46 68 41 / 0 0 60 30

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.