textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of weather systems will bring periods of breezy to windy conditions an some scattered rain or snow shower opportunities heading into next week.

- Near or slightly above average temperatures will begin to trend below average by the second half of next week.

- A colder weather system looks to bring more wintry conditions next weekend.

UPDATE

Tonight it will be chilly, calm, and dry across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Tomorrow it will be windy and warm up nicely across the area before a cold front moves through. For the update, hourly temperatures were re-run to better reflect current observations and trends. Maximum relative humidity, hourly dewpoints, and hourly relative humidity were increased to reflect current observations and trends. The rest of the forecast is on track. -IG.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 501 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

A northwesterly flow aloft will send a series of shortwaves through the state through mid- next week. The first notable shortwave brings another round of gusty, to at times strong, winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains Saturday through early Sunday. Winds initially increase along the Rocky Mountain Saturday morning via the approaching wave and a tightening surface pressure gradient. Then the focus shifts to the plains during the shortwave passage later Saturday into Sunday.

This system will be very similar to the last one, though H700 winds look slightly lower at around 50 to 70 kts and the frontogenesis is not as intense. There will still be some scattered 60 mph + wind gusts, mostly for locations east and northeast of a Great Falls to Cut Bank line. Little to no precipitation will accompany this system, but there will be scattered to broken stratus and a few stay rain or snow showers can't be ruled out over the plains. Temperatures warm back above average on Saturday before cooling slightly again on Sunday.

Another more defined shortwave passes through the Northern Rockies on Tuesday followed by another one Wednesday into Thursday. These systems will bring more periods of gusty northwesterly surface winds and cooling temperatures. There also will be more moisture availability and colder air with these waves for more widespread snow shower coverage and an areawide shift to below average temperatures. The wind and snow shower impacts will still be mostly felt over central and north-central MT.

Over 50% of ensembles highlight a broad trough moving in for next weekend. There should to be at least a brief period with Arctic air residence and snowfall opportunities despite the core of the coldest air looking to move into the Midwest and Great Lakes areas. - RCG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

High Winds from late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning...

Climate anomaly indicators such as the NAEFS continue to suggest the potential for another wind event across eastern portions of Central and North Central Montana, generally along and northeast of a Lewistown to Sweet Grass Hills line. H850-700 wind speeds of between 40-70kts per NAEFS analysis, which is 2 to nearly 3.5 standard deviations above normal, will overspread the region in wake of embedded shortwave within northwest flow. Additionally, another cold front with 6hr pressure rises of between 5-10mb will accompany the passage of the upper level wave, which is likely to lead to enhanced wind speeds in terrain gaps. NBM probabilities for wind gusts in excess of 48kts near the Island Ranges of Central and North Central Montana generally range from a 40-70% chance, with a 20-50% chance for these same areas to see sustained wind speeds of 34kts or greater. Given little change in probabilities over the past 24 hours the High Wind Watch for the Bears Paw Mountains and Blaine County was left as is for now; however, the areal coverage of the watch was expanded to now include Eastern Toole and Liberty Counties to account for the high wind potential around the Sweet Grass Hills. - Moldan

AVIATION

17/00Z TAF Period

Expect VFR conditions to continue across North Central and Southwestern Montana over the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be light through 17/18z as well, but will start to pick up across the plains in the late morning and early afternoon hours save for KLWT, which will see gusty winds through the first half of the overnight tonight. Ludwig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 17 50 26 34 / 0 0 20 10 CTB 13 50 24 29 / 0 0 10 10 HLN 14 40 20 35 / 0 0 0 30 BZN 11 36 14 34 / 0 0 0 10 WYS -5 28 -2 31 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 14 41 16 37 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 10 44 24 29 / 0 0 0 10 LWT 14 48 26 31 / 0 0 30 30

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Northern Blaine County.