textproduct: Great Falls

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures through the work week, with a slight cool down over the weekend.

- Strong and gusty winds at times along the Rocky Mountain Front, especially today, Saturday, and Sunday.

- Precipitation chances return by Saturday night to the Continental Divide, with chances expanding further east into early next week.

UPDATE

/Issued 803 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026/

There were some minor adjustments to the short-term forecast based on the latest model guidance and trends. The winds along north- central Montana went up slightly but not enough to warrant a High Wind Warning at this time. Otherwise no major changes were made to the going forecast. -thor

DISCUSSION

/Issued 803 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging will dominate over the Northern Rockies through the end of the work week, which will help to support continued dry conditions and well above normal temperatures across all of Southwest through North Central Montana. By Saturday a shortwave lifting northeast from over the Eastern Pacific will help to flatten the upper level ridge as it moves over the Northern Rockies, with quasi-zonal to southwest flow remaining in place through the day on Sunday. While temperatures will continue to run well above normal beneath this pattern the chance for precipitation will begin to increase along the Continental Divide during the overnight hours of Saturday and through the day on Sunday. A potent shortwave sliding east within the aforementioned flow from Sunday night through Monday will help to support increasing precipitation chances across all elevations. Precipitation chances will linger through Tuesday and Wednesday along the Continental Divide and across the mountains of Southwest Montana. - Moldan

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Strong and Gusty Winds along the Rocky Mountain Front...

Periods of cross barrier flow in excess of 45kts combined with a moderate to strong pressure gradient will bring strong and gusty winds to the Rocky Mountain Front over the course of the next week, most notably today, Saturday, and Sunday. NBM probabilities for wind gusts in excess of 48kts over these three days are in excess of a 50% chance. While high winds are not expected over these days there is a 25% chance that gusts could reach 60kts

Temperatures through Friday....

Confidence remains very high that exceptionally, with respect to February climatology, warm temperatures will be experienced through Friday across Southwest, Central, and North Central Montana; with most locations running anywhere from 25 to nearly 35 degrees above normal. Confidence is especially high with respect to temperatures over portions of the plains of Central and North Central Montana, generally along and southwest of a Lewistown, to Fort Benton, to Cut Bank line where the spread between the NBM25Pct and NBM75Pct is largely below 5 degrees on any given day. Even if high temperatures only reach the reasonably low end of potential guidance (i.e. NBM25Pct) these areas would still be reaching or eclipsing daily record high temperatures. Where confidence in temperatures becomes slightly lower is across the Milk River Valley and in some of the valleys of Southwest and Central Montana on Thursday and Friday when the spread between reasonably low and high end of guidance approaches 10 degrees. None-the-less, even here temperatures will still be very mild for February.

NBM25Pct for High Temperatures for select climate sites across Southwest, Central, and North Central Montana; which is a reasonable low end (i.e. cooler) forecast for each respective date. This means that there is a 75% chance that temperatures are warmer than what is listed or a 25% chance that temperatures are cooler than what is listed.

LOCATION Wednesday | Thursday | Friday Cut Bank Apt 63F | 70F | 65F Havre Apt 57F | 59F | 53F Great Falls Apt 65F | 67F | 65F Lewistown Apt 62F | 68F | 66F Helena Apt 59F | 59F | 60F Bozeman Apt 57F | 60F | 62F Dillon Apt 58F | 61F | 63F

NBM75Pct for High Temperatures for select climate sites across Southwest, Central, and North Central Montana; which is a reasonable high end (i.e. warmer) forecast for each respective date. This means that there is a 75% chance that temperatures are cooler than what is listed or a 25% chance that temperatures are warmer than what is listed.

LOCATION Wednesday | Thursday | Friday Cut Bank Apt 67F | 74F | 70F Havre Apt 64F | 65F | 67F Great Falls Apt 67F | 73F | 72F Lewistown Apt 64F | 72F | 70F Helena Apt 63F | 68F | 69F Bozeman Apt 61F | 68F | 69F Dillon Apt 61F | 67F | 66F

The final table below reflects the probability of breaking the current record high temperature for select cities across North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana on the 4th (Wednesday), 5th (Thursday), and 6th (Friday) of February.

- Moldan

AVIATION

04/18Z TAF Period

Dry northwesterly flow aloft will maintain breezy to windy conditions and passing mid- and higher level cloudiness for much of the TAF period. Surface wind gusts will be strongest through the daylight hours today, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front, where gusts will exceed 40 kts at times. Otherwise, wind gusts between 20-35 kts will be most common for plains locations. Mountain wave activity and instances of low level wind shear may accompany the winds. - RCG

FIRE WEATHER

Mild temperatures, with highs running anywhere from 25 to 35 degrees above normal, and low afternoon relative humidity values of between 20-40% will help to support elevated fire weather concerns across much of Southwest through North Central Montana, especially across the grasslands where the ground is snow free. The elevated concerns will be the highest along the Rocky Mountain Front today where frequent wind gusts in excess of 40 mph will occur. - Moldan

CLIMATE

Numerous locations have the potential of setting new all time record high temperatures for the month of February this week. The table below reflects the current all time record high temperature for the month of February for select climate sites across the CWA.

LOCATION Cut Bank 71F set on February 27, 1992 Havre 74F set on February 27, 1992 Great Falls 70F set on February 27, 1992 and February 27, 1932 Lewistown 70F set on February 27, 1932 Helena 69F set on February 24, 1995 and February 27, 1932 Bozeman 66F set on February 24, 1995 Dillon 64F set on February 27, 1988 and February 28, 1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 64 41 68 29 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 63 44 67 27 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 58 32 59 27 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 56 29 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 40 11 47 9 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 56 29 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 58 36 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 60 38 68 30 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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