textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A few light showers over North Central MT today, otherwise it will be a bit warmer.

- Showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, but turning dry Friday and into the start of the weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday afternoon and then continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: A slow moving upper level low will slowly start to drift eastward across southern Canada today. Expect a few light showers over North Central MT, otherwise Southwest MT should be mostly dry and sunny.

For Thursday, an upper level disturbance will move from west to east across the CWA. The disturbance will arrive in the morning, thus the chance for strong storms is low. Most of the precipitation will exit the eastern portions of the CWA by early evening.

Weak shortwave riding develops for Friday and Saturday morning. This will allow for dry and warm conditions to develop over the CWA. Afternoon highs will be close to 10 degrees above normal on Friday.

For Saturday afternoon into early next week...an unstable southwesterly flow will develop over the CWA. This will result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to move through the CWA. At this time, most of the severe storms should be to our east, but an isolated strong/severe storm is possible. Overall, temperatures will be a bit above normal most days, except on Sunday, when temperatures are likely to be a few degrees below normal.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: With warm air moving in aloft today, the forecast models want to keep the CWA dry. However, with recent moisture, the airmass is likely to become a bit unstable with any heating over North Central MT, thus kept low pops in the forecast, especially for areas along the Highway 2 corridor from Shelby to Harlem.

There is the potential that a few strong storms could develop over the eastern portions of the CWA on Saturday, but they should quickly move off to the northeast. Brusda

AVIATION

3/12Z TAF Period.

There is a small chance for some patchy fog over Central/Southwest MT this morning. Otherwise, just a few isolated showers are possible today over North Central MT. Expect clearing skies over night for much of the CWA. Mountains/passes will be obscured until this evening over North Central MT. Brusda

HYDROLOGY

The latest hydrographs show river levels decreasing over the southwestern portions of Glacier County. This includes the Two Medicine River and Badger Creek. Thus if no new reports of flooding are received this morning, it is likely the flood advisory for southwestern Glacier County will expire at Noon today, or even be cancelled early. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 68 48 72 45 / 0 30 50 0 CTB 65 45 69 42 / 20 10 20 0 HLN 76 50 73 44 / 0 50 40 0 BZN 76 45 73 42 / 0 30 50 0 WYS 73 37 70 36 / 0 10 10 0 DLN 76 45 73 42 / 0 40 10 0 HVR 68 42 74 45 / 20 0 40 10 LWT 68 43 68 42 / 0 10 80 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.