textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- There will be light snow across portions of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana through Sunday morning.

- Winds will increase Sunday afternoon through Monday morning leading to areas of blowing snow primarily along the Rocky Mountain Front.

- Sunday afternoon through the end of next week it will be dry with warming temperatures.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 230 PM MST Sat Jan 24 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon northwest flow will be over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring primarily light snow to mountain adjacent areas with the heaviest amounts in northerly upslope areas. Outside of Hill and Northern Blaine Counties, this afternoon the cold air will begin to slowly move out of the area. The snowfall will continue through Sunday morning.

On Sunday an upper-level ridge will begin to move over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up with mostly dry weather. Sunday evening as the upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana there will be a strong pressure gradient. This will bring gusty winds to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will lead to areas of blowing snow across portions of North-central Montana Sunday evening to Monday morning (primarily along the Rocky Mountain Front).

On Monday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up to above seasonal averages with dry weather. Tuesday through Friday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana with a few passing upper-level shortwaves. This will bring dry and warm weather with windy conditions at times. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

For the snow that will continue through early Sunday morning, due to it being a northwest flow event models are under forecasting the snowfall amounts and QPF. As a result QPF was blended upward toward the 90th percentile NBM. One limiting factor for the snowfall is the dry air near the surface. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Judith Basin and Fergus Counties.

Sunday afternoon into Monday there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. This combined with the light snow that will fall this afternoon through Sunday morning will lead to areas of blowing snow along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. The only uncertainty with this is how much snowfall these areas receive. Wind prone areas of the rest of North-central and Central Montana have greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts in excess of 35 mph. Any of these areas that receive snow today in particular the Little Belts and between Great Falls and Lewistown along Montana Highway 200/US Highway 87 will have isolated areas of blowing snow.

From Sunday afternoon through Friday there is an extremely low chance for any precipitation across any location in North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG

AVIATION

25/00Z TAF Period

Snow continues to develop across the region through the evening, brining reduced cigs/vis to most terminals through the overnight. Snow ends from north to south through the night, with slow improvements to ceilings during the morning Sunday. Mountains will be obscured through the night and into early Sunday. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF -3 24 15 40 / 70 20 0 0 CTB -8 24 12 36 / 40 10 0 0 HLN 2 24 9 38 / 60 10 0 0 BZN 3 21 3 37 / 60 20 0 0 WYS -7 17 -9 23 / 50 20 0 0 DLN 6 26 8 37 / 30 10 0 0 HVR -11 16 1 30 / 30 0 0 0 LWT -8 18 5 37 / 80 20 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains.