textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of snow will be most widespread and impactful over southwest Montana this morning, with the snow becoming more scattered in nature this afternoon and tonight.

- Windy, dry, and mild conditions move in this weekend before a series of cold fronts cool temperatures and bring some opportunities for snow next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 309 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

A Pacific trough will continue to impact the Northern Rockies with periods of snow and more seasonable temperatures today. While a significant portion of this trough's energy is looking to dive southeastward into the Great Basin area, a compact mid- level circulation has developed and will move along the MT/ID border through the morning hours. This will compliment the colder air aloft and result in heavier mountain snow and overall increased impacts, even for lower elevations. While most locations look to see a slight increase in snowfall, southwestern areas south of I90 still look to be impacted most.

Areas of snow taper off this afternoon as the main forcing moves eastward, but diurnal instability looks to maintain scattered convective rain and snow showers for the remainder of the day. Then another piece of upper level energy slides southeastward out of Alberta and brings an additional rounds of scattered light snow showers tonight into Friday morning.

The jet stream moves over the Northern Rockies this weekend and brings general windy and mild conditions Saturday through Monday, with Sunday looking to be the day with the strongest and most widespread winds. The boundary between the colder Arctic air and the milder Pacific air will oscillate north and south next week, resulting in periods of colder temperatures with snow opportunities interrupted by occasional windier milder conditions. - RCG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Areas of snow this morning become more scattered in nature and less impactful this afternoon and tonight...

The colder air aloft will increase mountain snow this morning while lower elevations rains change to snow. Model guidance continues to trend snow amounts higher especially over southwest MT. The winter weather advisory for the Madison/Gallatin Mountain zone was upgraded to a winter storm warning given accumulations now expected to total in the 9 to 16 inch range for elevations above 7,000 ft. In addition to slushy/snowy roads, the heavy and wet snow consistency may also cause isolated instances of power outages.

Most lower elevations south of I90 look to see a general 2 to 5 inch snowfall totals, highest for areas near higher terrain, including the Bozeman, Dillon, and Ennis areas. While surface temperatures are beginning above freezing at the onset, heavier bursts of snow should, at least briefly, overcome this during the morning hours. Similar to the mountain areas, the lower elevation snow may also cause a few power outages. Winter weather advisories were added for most lower elevations south of I90 to address these impacts. Snow amounts for other mountain areas have not changed much from the general 2 to 6 accumulation range. Snow will become more scattered in nature this afternoon and diurnal heating should also help melt roadway accumulations. Additional light snow shower activity may persist through Friday morning.

Periods of strong winds this weekend into next week..

Increased westerly flow aloft combined with tightening surface pressure gradients will send rounds of strong winds through the region Saturday through Monday. Winds begin increasing along the Rocky Mountain Front Friday night before spreading onto the plains during the day on Saturday. A high wind watch was sent out for areas along the Rocky Mountain Front, the central MT highway 87 corridor, and the Bears Paw Mountain area. Most areas along the Rocky Mountain Front that are along and west of highway 89 have around 70% chance or greater for wind gusts exceeding 75 mph, while the other aforementioned areas have similar probabilities for 55 mph gusts or greater.

The stronger winds look to become even more widespread on Sunday as the most robust jet stream aloft moves over the state. H700 winds look to exceed 70 kts over much of central/north-central MT by Sunday afternoon. Strong diurnal mixing, mountain wave activity, and tight surface pressure gradients should create the conditions for widespread strong winds over much of the northern half of the forecast area and some of the higher mountain peaks/narrow south to north valleys of southwest MT. Many locations north of the I90 corridor have a greater than 70% chance for wind gusts exceeding 55 mph. Once again areas along the Rocky Mountain Front will see the strongest winds with gusts over 80 mph at times. Impacts will be significant for those driving high profile or light weight vehicles. There will also be grassland blowing dust and elevated fire weather concerns, particularly for areas that see little to no precipitation on Thursday. Cold fronts will begin to bring colder air and periods of snow as early as Monday of next week. This should diminish the winds and push them farther south at least temporarily. - RCG

AVIATION

05/12Z TAF Period

Rain will transition to snow this morning as a Pacific low pressure system continues to move eastward. The heaviest snow will occur along and south of the I90 corridor where MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions will persist through the morning hours followed by slow west to east improvement this afternoon. Farther north, patchy fog, low stratus, and areas of light precipitation will also continue to bring MVFR/IFR clouds through the morning hours.

While conditions do improve this afternoon, there still looks to be sufficient instability to result in scattered rain/graupel/snow showers before surface heating wanes near sunset. Another weak shortwave will bring another round of less impactful light snow showers tonight into Friday morning. - RCG

FIRE WEATHER

There will be elevated fire weather concerns for grassland areas this weekend. Particularly for areas that receive little to no precipitation today and Friday. Strong winds, gusting over 50 mph at times, combined with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s and minimum relative humidity values in the 20s and 30s may create difficulties to contain any existing or new fire starts. The worst conditions look to occur on Sunday when the winds will be strongest and most widespread. - RCG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 44 28 47 31 / 80 60 20 0 CTB 45 24 44 30 / 70 50 10 0 HLN 44 28 45 27 / 90 50 30 10 BZN 42 24 43 20 / 90 70 30 10 WYS 36 16 36 11 / 80 70 30 20 DLN 41 21 41 21 / 90 30 10 0 HVR 42 21 50 27 / 60 10 10 0 LWT 38 24 43 25 / 80 50 30 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below 5000ft-Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Western and Central Chouteau County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MST this afternoon for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Madison River Valley.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MST this afternoon for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains.