textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will continue to gradually warm throughout the week.

- Dry conditions prevail this week, with low end chances for precipitation early next week.

- Breezy winds this weekend, creating elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1236 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Northwest flow aloft continues over the next few days as an upper level ridge begins to build off of the West coast. The gradual building of this ridge will cause temperatures to increase, peaking Friday and Saturday with highs in the low to mid 90s for much of the CWA. Precipitable water remains low and forcing remains weak, keeping the region dry throughout the week into the weekend.

On Friday, the ridge begins to flatten, resulting in increased winds aloft. Daytime mixing will mix these higher winds down to the surface, creating breezy conditions Friday and Saturday. The mixing will also lower humidities, with minimum humidities reaching the teens across the region during this time. The warm temperatures, breezy conditions, and low humidities will create elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. The beginning of next week will see westerly flow aloft, with low end chances for precipitation. -Dzomba

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

One thing that remains uncertain is the timing and location of the breezier winds Friday. Some solutions have a broader 700mb jet Friday afternoon, some have a more localized jet, and some push off the breezier winds to Saturday. This affects the overall fire weather risk threat. However, there remains good confidence for at least more elevated fire weather Friday and Saturday due to the combination of dry, hot, and breezy conditions. Where the better winds set up will determine the areas more at risk for critical fire weather. -Wilson

AVIATION

05/12Z TAF Period

Primary concern this TAF period will be for wildfire smoke reducing slant-range visibility across portions of Southwest Montana. A wind shift across the plains this morning to a more northwesterly direction will fade in most areas by early afternoon, yielding light and variable winds for most terminals.

For KGTF: NW wind shift looks on track to arrive in the 15Z-16Z timeframe, though the magnitude of these winds looks to be 10 kts or less. Light and variable winds develop early afternoon and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 85 52 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 82 51 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 87 52 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 86 50 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 80 39 86 42 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 84 49 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 86 53 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 80 50 85 53 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES