textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- One more day of widespread snow, including snow squalls and strong winds.

- Turning drier and warm during the work week.

- Several days of strong winds possible over North Central MT next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 425 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026/

- Meteorological Overview: An atmospheric river of precipitation continues to affect our CWA this morning. This river of precipitation goes from the state of WA to IL this morning. Central MT is right under the direct path of this river of precipitation. A cold front is now moving southward through Southern Alberta. This cold front will push this river of precipitation southward today, then eventually eastward tonight, ending the precipitation.

Expect widespread snow over Central and North Central MT today. The only change to the winter statements was to add Hill/Blaine counties as precipitation over spreads this area later this morning. Additionally, as the cold front move southward from Canada, expect gusty north winds to develop behind the front. This will also create areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. There is also the potential a portion of the winter statements might need to be extended until Midnight between Great Falls and Lewistown, as the snow will be slow to end this evening.

Over Southwest MT, it will be mild to start. Mid level winds are progged to mix down as the cold front move southeast through Southwest MT later this morning/afternoon. Some wind gusts will approach 60 mph, thus the high wind warning will continue. An isolated lightning strike is also possible as the front moves through. Overall this will be a short high wind event, with most of the higher gusts at ridge tops. However, some higher gusts will also occur in the valleys. There is the potential that this high wind warning might be able to be cancelled a few hours early this evening.

Additionally, snow showers/snow squalls will be possible over Southwest MT as the front moves through. The highest probability of snow squalls is east of a line from Dillon to Bozeman late this morning and into the afternoon hours.

After today, expect a warming trend for all of next week, with afternoon temperatures approaching record highs for several days next week. However, strong winds are also possible numerous days next week over North Central, possibly as early as Monday night along the Rocky Mountain Front and in the Cut Bank area. High wind statements could be issued as early as later today or tomorrow for portions of North Central MT.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There is nearly an 80 percent chance or higher of strong winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and in the Cut Bank area daily from Monday through Friday. Wind gusts over 75 mph have at least of 75 percent chance as well during this same period. Thus high wind statements are likely for much of next week.

There is at least a 60 percent chance or higher of afternoon temperatures breaking records Thu, Fri, and Sat of next week.

AVIATION

14/12z TAF Period

Widespread light snow will affect Central MT through about 6z Sun before decreasing. Some blowing snow could impact terminals later this morning/through this afternoon. Over Southwest MT, expect a frontal passage, mostly during the afternoon hours. Rain/snow or an isolated thunderstorm will accompany the frontal passage. A few strong wind gusts are also possible. Overall, expect decreasing clouds and lighter winds after 6z Sun. Mountains/passes will be obscured across the CWA through at least 6z Sun. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 27 8 30 16 / 100 80 0 20 CTB 25 -2 26 12 / 90 20 0 10 HLN 32 12 35 24 / 100 80 10 40 BZN 48 13 35 21 / 80 70 10 40 WYS 43 5 30 15 / 70 40 10 40 DLN 47 17 37 26 / 70 40 0 10 HVR 30 5 26 10 / 100 50 0 0 LWT 26 4 26 10 / 100 80 20 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap- Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys- Northern High Plains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Hill County- Northern Blaine County-Western and Central Chouteau County.

High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Madison River Valley-Missouri Headwaters-Northwest Beaverhead County-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains.