textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It will be warm through this week with a very slight cooldown on Monday.

- It will be windy at times through Friday with the strongest winds Sunday evening into Monday morning.

- Outside of light mountain snow it will be dry through Friday.

UPDATE

/Issued 828 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026/ Updated forecast is out. Just minor adjustments towards current trends for pops/clouds. Otherwise the rest of the forecast is on track for tonight.

Main concern over the next few days is the potential for strong winds tomorrow night once again along the Rocky Mountain Front and the adjacent Plains. Overall, the latest forecast keeps much of the area below high wind warning criteria, thus no wind statements will be issued at this time. Brusda

DISCUSSION

/Issued 828 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon there will be an upper-level ridge over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and mostly dry conditions to the area this afternoon. This evening along the Rocky Mountain Front there will be some isolated snow showers. On Sunday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep warm and dry conditions for the area on Sunday. Late Sunday afternoon/early Sunday evening the upper-level ridge flattens and an upper-level shortwave trough moves over the area. This combined with a moderately strong surface pressure gradient will lead to windy conditions across North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. Windy conditions will linger into Monday morning. With the shortwave trough moving over the area it will bring isolated snow showers to the mountains of North-central Montana Sunday evening through Monday morning. On Monday the upper-level shortwave trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana in the morning before an upper-level ridge begins to build back in Monday afternoon. As a result Monday will be the coolest day of this forecast period (still well-above seasonal averages).

Tuesday through Friday the upper-level ridge will remain over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up each day through Thursday with mostly dry weather. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days of this forecast period with high temperatures approaching or exceeding record highs for many locations. On Friday northwest flow aloft will cool down temperatures slightly. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning the surface pressure gradient will increase which will bring another round of windy conditions to the Rocky Mountain Front. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

For the winds Sunday night into Monday morning there is around a 30 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater in isolated locations along the Rocky Mountain Front. There is up to a 40 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the plains west of I-15 and the wind prone areas of Judith Basin County. As a result of the low probabilities and isolated nature of where the higher probabilities are along the Rocky Mountain Front and low confidence in a Mountain Wave bringing down the stronger gusts a High Wind Watch was not issued at this time. This will continue to be monitored by future shifts. For the winds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning there is a 30 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front.

On Sunday, Wednesday, and Thursday there is greater than a 60% chance for high temperatures of 60 degrees or greater across the Montana Highway 200/US Highway 87 Corridor, the Helena Valley, and Gallatin Valley. On Wednesday there is a 40 - 80% chance for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater from Shelby to Great Falls to Lewistown. On Thursday from Shelby to Great Falls to Lewistown there is a 60 - 90% chance for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater. On Thursday there is greater than a 50% chance for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater in the Gallatin Valley and and Dillon area. On Thursday from Shelby to Great Falls to Lewistown there is a 30 - 60% chance for high temperatures of 70 degrees or greater. -IG

The table below reflects the probably for breaking record high temperatures across select cities in North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Wednesday and Thursday. -IG/Moldan

LOCATION Wednesday | Thursday Cut Bank 75% breaking 63 degrees | 57% breaking 65 degrees Havre 37% breaking 61 degrees | 69% breaking 58 degrees Great Falls 78% breaking 62 degrees | 86% breaking 62 degrees Lewistown 74% breaking 62 degrees | 87% breaking 60 degrees Helena 47% breaking 61 degrees | 43% breaking 63 degrees Bozeman 48% breaking 62 degrees | 58% breaking 65 degrees Dillon 84% breaking 57 degrees | 93% breaking 57 degrees

AVIATION

01/06Z TAF Period

Despite upper level cloudiness through much of the next 24 hours VFR conditions will persist throughout the 0106/0206 TAF period. With that being said expect surface winds to increase out of the southwest to west beyond 00z Monday, especially at the KCTB and KGTF terminals, as an upper level disturbance begins to move over the Northern Rockies. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 36 59 37 53 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 31 54 35 48 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 31 53 32 49 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 28 52 25 47 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 10 39 10 36 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 28 52 25 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 25 48 30 49 / 0 0 10 10 LWT 31 56 33 48 / 0 0 0 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.