textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated, very light snow showers/flurries continue through the afternoon in Central and North-Central MT.

- There will be a few periods of gusty winds and light snow Tuesday and Wednesday.

- There is increasing confidence for colder weather towards the end of the week, though snowfall chances remain uncertain.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 144 PM MST Sun Jan 18 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

The backdoor cold front stalling out from the Rocky Mountain Front through the Little Belts will keep bringing decreasing temperatures through the day today. Although moisture is light, forcing along the cold front will continue to produce isolated very light snow showers/flurries across Central and North-Central MT this afternoon. However, snow accumulations besides the higher mountain peaks are not expected with precipitation.

The upper level ridge is still dominating along the west coast of the U.S. for at least the first half of the week. Being on the eastern side of this ridge will continue this northwest flow aloft pattern through Wednesday. There will be a few upper level waves passing through Tuesday and Wednesday that will bring periods of light snow showers and gusty winds for mostly North-Central MT.

Heading towards the end of the week, there seems to be a brief breakdown in this ridging pattern as troughing developing in Canada moves south into the NW U.S. However, there are still inconsistencies each model run on how this will evolve. There is higher confidence in colder air moving in Friday and Saturday. How much snow this system will bring, still remains with a good level of uncertainty.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Although there will be a few mid level waves bringing in a stronger mid level jet into the Central MT plains Tuesday and Wednesday, it will be a quick moving wave. This keeps the potential for high winds on the lower confidence side, as there won't be much time for the winds to mix down to the surface. Still, there's up to a 70% chance for 45 mph wind gusts or greater for the Rocky Mountain Front, Sweet Grass Hills, Judith Basin, Fergus, and Blaine Counties Tuesday. Wind probabilities drop slightly for Wednesday.

There still remains much uncertainty in how much snow the region gets Thursday through Saturday. Although there is higher confidence in colder temperatures moving during this time, how cold it gets will depend on how much of this trough digs south into the area. The probability for 2 inches of snow in the mountains range from 20-50% and in the plains, generally 20% or less. A noticeable downtrend from the previous runs shows the big variability in the forecast still. -Wilson

AVIATION

19/00Z TAF Period

Low VFR/MVFR clouds and mountain obscuration will slowly thin and dissipate through 19/06Z. Another shortwave approaches the forecast area and initially brings increased higher level cloudiness and westerly breezes over the plains on Monday. MVFR clouds, mountain obscuration, and stronger northwesterly surface winds look to hold off until around 20/06Z and later. - RCG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 18 43 27 37 / 0 0 0 40 CTB 14 41 24 34 / 0 0 0 10 HLN 18 39 24 37 / 0 0 0 30 BZN 14 37 19 35 / 0 0 0 20 WYS -2 28 5 27 / 0 0 0 20 DLN 14 39 20 38 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 12 33 21 32 / 0 0 10 20 LWT 15 40 22 33 / 0 0 0 40

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.