textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- There will be light snow across portions of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana through Sunday morning.

- Winds will increase Sunday afternoon through Monday morning leading to areas of blowing snow primarily along the Rocky Mountain Front.

- Sunday afternoon through the end of next week it will be dry with warming temperatures.

UPDATE

/Issued 841 PM MST Sat Jan 24 2026/

Current forecast looks to be on track right now. This light snow band has produced up to 2" of snow across North-Central MT today. Overall moisture amounts are low, which is attributing to the low snowfall accumulations with this system. There looks to be enough frontogenetic forcing along the front and upper air support to continue to squeeze out any remaining moisture throughout the night. Additional light steady snowfall is expected to continue along the front, progressing farther south throughout the night. Additional accumulations will be light, with only up to an inch, maybe 2" in the mountains expected. Snowfall is expected to wind down early Sunday morning. So far the current Winter Weather Advisories remain on track. With Southwest MT forecasted to receive up to 1-2", with locally higher amounts in the higher terrain above pass level, I am not inclined to expand winter products at this time.

Shifting gears towards colder temperatures farther north in Blaine County overnight, not too much has changed from the afternoon's forecast. Wind chills are expected to stay above -25F for the most part through Sunday morning. There will be isolated areas that do reach at or just below -25F wind chills. However, the isolated nature and brief duration of hitting those temperatures led me to hold off on issuing a Cold Weather Advisory tonight. Though we will still monitor temperature trends throughout the night. -Wilson

DISCUSSION

/Issued 841 PM MST Sat Jan 24 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon northwest flow will be over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring primarily light snow to mountain adjacent areas with the heaviest amounts in northerly upslope areas. Outside of Hill and Northern Blaine Counties, this afternoon the cold air will begin to slowly move out of the area. The snowfall will continue through Sunday morning.

On Sunday an upper-level ridge will begin to move over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up with mostly dry weather. Sunday evening as the upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana there will be a strong pressure gradient. This will bring gusty winds to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will lead to areas of blowing snow across portions of North-central Montana Sunday evening to Monday morning (primarily along the Rocky Mountain Front).

On Monday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up to above seasonal averages with dry weather. Tuesday through Friday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana with a few passing upper-level shortwaves. This will bring dry and warm weather with windy conditions at times. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

For the snow that will continue through early Sunday morning, due to it being a northwest flow event models are under forecasting the snowfall amounts and QPF. As a result QPF was blended upward toward the 90th percentile NBM. One limiting factor for the snowfall is the dry air near the surface. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Judith Basin and Fergus Counties.

Sunday afternoon into Monday there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. This combined with the light snow that will fall this afternoon through Sunday morning will lead to areas of blowing snow along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. The only uncertainty with this is how much snowfall these areas receive. Wind prone areas of the rest of North-central and Central Montana have greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts in excess of 35 mph. Any of these areas that receive snow today in particular the Little Belts and between Great Falls and Lewistown along Montana Highway 200/US Highway 87 will have isolated areas of blowing snow.

From Sunday afternoon through Friday there is an extremely low chance for any precipitation across any location in North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG

AVIATION

25/06Z TAF Period

Snow and associated low cigs/vis will continue through at least 25/09Z, slowly diminishing from north to south thereafter. Attention then turns to the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains late Sunday into Sunday evening, where gusty winds will result in a risk for blowing snow. Mountains will be obscured through the overnight period. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF -2 24 15 40 / 80 10 0 0 CTB -8 24 12 36 / 60 10 0 0 HLN 2 24 9 38 / 70 10 0 0 BZN 1 21 3 37 / 60 20 0 0 WYS -11 17 -9 23 / 40 20 0 0 DLN 3 26 8 37 / 20 10 0 0 HVR -12 16 1 30 / 30 0 0 0 LWT -7 18 5 37 / 80 10 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains.