textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain above normal through early next week.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return this weekend.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview:

As a ridge of high pressure builds over western MT, northwest flow aloft continues today. There will be a few embedded waves within this flow, but due to a lack of moisture conditions will remain dry. Expect sunny skies, mild winds and warm temperatures today.

A closed upper level low forms along the Pacific coast this weekend, pushing the center of the upper level ridge over Central MT. The combination of this closed upper level low to the west and a mild cold front moving through will bring back chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the region this weekend. As the upper level ridge breaks down early next week, we once again are subject to northwesterly flow aloft, allowing for low chances for showers and thunderstorms to occur daily. Despite this, temperatures will remain seasonably warm this weekend through next week, with the coolest day looking to be Tuesday due to increased shower activity. Due to a tightening pressure gradient formed by a large upper level low to the east, breezy conditions are expected to develop on Tuesday. -Dzomba

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Due to a lack of atmospheric moisture, showers and thunderstorms this weekend are expected to be weak, and chances for precipitation, while present, will be low. The highest chances for precipitation on Saturday are in the evening, with a 15% chance of 0.05" of moisture in the higher elevations. Chances move down into the lower elevations and increase in the higher elevations on Sunday evening, with a 10% chance of 0.05" of moisture in the lower elevations and a 20% chance in the higher elevations across Southwest and Central MT. -Dzomba

AVIATION

01/06Z TAF Period.

An upper level ridge of high pressure shifts east across the Northern Rockies and MT through Friday, maintaining VFR conditions with little or no clouds. Surface winds remain light with a slight increase in west to southwest winds over the north-central MT plains Friday afternoon. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 72 40 67 43 / 0 0 10 20 CTB 71 41 64 38 / 0 0 10 20 HLN 71 40 70 43 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 68 35 71 39 / 0 0 10 10 WYS 59 25 62 29 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 67 35 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 76 41 69 40 / 0 0 10 20 LWT 68 40 66 40 / 0 0 20 30

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.