textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds expected this week, but not as strong as last Thursday. - Unseasonably warm to record warm temperatures expected later this week. - A potential cooldown is possible for the weekend, but remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: An upper level ridge continues to build over the Pacific Northwest today, resulting in warm air advection over Central MT. Winds have been on the increase across the plains today, mainly over the Rocky Mountain Front and North Slopes of the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains, and should expand a bit over the plains overnight tonight.

For Tuesday the strong winds continue over North Central MT, as the mild air continues to move in.

For Wednesday through Friday it continues to get warmer over the CWA, as the upper level ridge builds over Montana, resulting in the potential for near record high temperatures in many areas. The chance for any precipitation mid week will be really limited, and mostly just over the Rocky Mountain Front. Do expect another period of strong winds by Thursday, with additional high wind statements possible for later this week.

For Saturday through Monday...the forecast has changed a bit, with the models no progging a Canadian cold front to move southward through the CWA on Saturday. Rain/snow will accompany the frontal passage, along with cooler temperatures over the weekend and into early next week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There is a 90 percent chance for strong winds in the high wind warning area for later today and Tuesday.

There is a 50 percent chance the high wind warning might need to be expanded into the Great Falls area for Tuesday, but with only a 50 percent probability of warning criteria wind gusts at this time, I held off on expanding the warning.

There is over an 80 percent chance of temperatures reaching record high temperatures later this week over portions of the CWA. Brusda/Ludwig

AVIATION

16/18Z TAF Period

There will be a line of light showers developing this afternoon along a front and will travel east through the evening. With precipitation, low VFR conditions are expected. Strong winds will pick up along the Rocky Mountain Front and North-Central MT plains this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds continue into Tuesday, with up to 50-55kt winds possible. The best window for peak winds will be Tuesday morning. -Wilson

HYDROLOGY

With the recent heavy snowfall in Judith Basin and Fergus counties, there is the potential for some small streams to run high, ponding of water in fields, and even some minor city flooding where storm drains are clogged this week. Overall, any flooding that does develop should be minor, with no flooding expected on any rivers at this time. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 41 58 47 62 / 50 10 0 0 CTB 39 56 42 59 / 10 0 0 10 HLN 38 60 40 65 / 30 10 10 0 BZN 37 63 40 71 / 50 10 10 0 WYS 27 52 26 59 / 60 10 10 0 DLN 39 62 40 70 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 35 62 41 66 / 20 10 0 0 LWT 37 55 40 60 / 40 10 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap- Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western and Central Chouteau County.