textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate snowfall will affect Central Montana until about 9 AM this morning.

- It will be a cool day today, but turns warmer on Friday.

- After a mild day Saturday, it once again turns cooler on Sunday over North Central MT.

- It is looking unsettled for much of next week, with a good amount of mountain precipitation expected.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: A moist upper level system is moving from west to east across Central MT this morning. Good snow accumulations are occurring from Raynesford to Grass Range this morning. Thus a winter weather advisory has been issued for this area. Otherwise, some light showers will be possible over mostly the Rocky Mountain Front and Southwest MT today. Also it will be much cooler today, especially over North Central MT.

For Friday and Saturday, and upper level ridge builds over the CWA. This will allow for warmer air to move back into the region. Overall, Saturday should be the nicer of the 2 days.

On Sunday, a weak cold front is now forecast to slip southward from Canada into North Central MT. This will result in cooler temperatures over North Central MT, but overall it is mostly going to be a dry front, so little/no precipitation is expected on Sunday at this time.

For Monday through Thursday of next week, we will transition to a moist westerly flow, with several upper level disturbances moving from west to east across the CWA. This will result in periods of rain/snow over the CWA, with the mountains likely receiving most of the precipitation. Temperatures will likely be above normal on Monday, but cool to below normal for the rest of the week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches look likely from Raynesford to Grass Range this morning, especially on grassy areas. Some isolated amounts around 6 inches are possible. Conditions should improve after 8 AM.

Afternoon temperatures over North Central MT will be tricky on Sunday, as a back door cold front is now progged to move southward through North Central MT. Should this front not push as far south, temperatures could be a bit warmer on Sunday.

For most of next week, there is less than 20 percent chance for 2 inches of snowfall at lower elevations. However, several days of 4 to 6 inches of snowfall are looking likely in the mountains. After 3 days of this type of snowfall, total snow accumulations in the mountains next week could range from about 10 to 20 inches. Thus some winter statements might be needed for portions of the CWA next week. Brusda

AVIATION

26/12Z TAF Period.

Light snow will affect Central MT until about 15z, then just an isolated shower possible elsewhere into the afternoon. It will be dry, with clearing skies overnight. Some patchy fog might be possible around Lewistown on Fri morning with recent snow. Mountains/passes obscured through the morning today. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 45 22 59 34 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 37 17 54 25 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 46 23 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 49 19 59 28 / 20 0 0 0 WYS 47 11 53 17 / 20 0 0 0 DLN 49 22 61 30 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 38 17 57 27 / 20 0 0 0 LWT 42 19 52 32 / 70 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains.