textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild through Sunday, before a return to more winter like temperatures arrives on Monday.

- Windy at times through Sunday, resulting in elevated fire conditions for grassy areas through Sunday.

- Impactful snowfall likely for the Monday morning commute.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: An upper level ridge currently centered over the state of Washington will slowly move eastward over the next few days. This will result in windy conditions for areas over North Central MT from today through Sunday, but also mild afternoon temperatures from today through Sunday. Overnight lows will still be chilly, with many areas in the 20s. There is the potential for stronger winds Saturday afternoon into Saturday night over North Central MT. These stronger winds will result in elevated fire concerns over grassy areas.

For Sunday night into Monday...a Pacific cold front/combined with an upper level trof will move from west to east across MT. This will result in a widespread area of precipitation over much of the CWA from Sunday night through Monday, along with much cooler temperatures for the first half of next week.

For Tue through Fri...weak shortwave ridging will try to redevelop over the CWA. However the ridge will be minor, resulting in afternoon temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Additionally, there will be a chance for precipitation, but mostly over the mountains of Southwest MT during this period.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There is about a 50 percent wind speeds could reach warning criteria Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning in the Cut Bank area. Additionally, there is over an 80 percent chance wind speeds could reach warning criteria along the Rocky Mountain Front. Thus this region is now under a high wind watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. There is some potential that the high winds could extend a bit further east into Liberty, Hill and Blaine counties by early Sunday morning. Later shifts will monitor this to see if the high wind watch needs to be expanded to counties further east.

Otherwise, the other main concern is the cold front with snow expected Sunday night into Monday. Overall the forecast models have been increasing snow amounts and lower snow levels across the CWA for this event. As of now, there is a 30 percent chance of warning criteria snowfall along the Rocky Mountain Front. Over the Plains snow amounts currently over low, generally less than an inch. However, some forecast models are showing the probability of a snowfall in the 2 to 5 inch range for Cut Bank, Havre, Great Falls, Helena, Bozeman and Lewistown. If these higher snowfall amounts look more likely, winter statements will be needed for this event. Additionally, most forecast models have the heaviest snowfall late Sunday night through Monday morning, which will impact the Monday morning commute. Brusda

AVIATION

06/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions are expected across the CWA through the period. There is a small chance for some patchy fog before 18z in the Havre area, but the probability is too low to include in the TAF right now. Otherwise, just some passing mid/high level clouds are expected today. Brusda

FIRE WEATHER

The main concern from today through Sunday will be the gusty winds and potential low afternoon humidity over North Central MT. This will result in elevated fire concerns over grassy areas during the afternoon hours. At this time, no fire statements have been issued, but with wind speeds approaching 50 mph once again on Saturday afternoon there is the potential that fire weather statements might need to be issued along the I-15 corridor from Great Falls to Cut Bank. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 66 40 63 46 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 65 38 58 40 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 58 34 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 59 32 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 42 19 42 18 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 56 33 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 62 30 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 63 38 60 38 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains.