textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It will be warm through this week with a slight cooldown on Monday.

- It will be windy at times through Friday with the strongest winds tonight into Monday morning.

- It will be dry Tuesday through Saturday with light precipitation tonight and Monday.

UPDATE

/Issued 749 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026/

The leading edge of the upper level shortwave responsible for briefly flattening the ridge across the region arrived over the past few hours, evident by radar, satellite, and surface observations. Mainly mountain and adjacent plains rain/snow has developed along the Rocky Mountain Front, with winds on the adjacent plains also responding to the increased low to mid-level flow. Expectation is for winds to peak later this evening in western areas, and late tonight or early Monday morning in eastern areas as the disturbance exits eastward.

While isolated instances of high winds in wind prone areas are in the cards tonight, the threat for widespread, persistent high winds appears too low to warrant any High Wind Warnings at this time.

The forecast was updated to reflect current trends - mainly to increase the probability for precipitation along the Rocky Mountain Front and to increase winds in a few areas. No significant changes otherwise. -AM

DISCUSSION

/Issued 749 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon there will be an upper-level ridge over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and mostly dry conditions to the area this afternoon. Late this afternoon/early this evening the upper-level ridge flattens and an upper-level shortwave trough moves over the area. This combined with a moderately strong surface pressure gradient will lead to windy conditions across North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. Windy conditions will linger into Monday morning. With the shortwave trough moving over the area it will bring isolated snow showers to the mountains of North-central Montana Sunday evening through Monday morning. It will also bring isolated rain/snow showers to portions of the lower-elevations of North-central Montana with the greatest coverage along the Hi-Line. On Monday the upper-level shortwave trough remains over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana in the morning before an upper-level ridge begins to build back in Monday afternoon. As a result Monday will be the coolest day of this forecast period. Monday evening to early Tuesday morning there will be another round of light primarily mountain precipitation.

Tuesday through Friday the upper-level ridge will remain over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up each day through Thursday with mostly dry weather. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days of this forecast period with high temperatures approaching or exceeding record highs for many locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning the surface pressure gradient will increase which will bring another round of windy conditions to the Rocky Mountain Front. On Saturday the upper-level ridge flattens which cools temperatures down slightly -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

For the winds tonight into Monday morning there is around a 30 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater in isolated locations along the Rocky Mountain Front. There is up to a 40 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the plains west of I-15 and the wind prone areas of Judith Basin and Fergus County. As a result of the low probabilities and isolated nature of where the higher wind gusts are expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and low confidence in a Mountain Wave bringing down the stronger gusts a High Wind Warning was not issued at this time. This will continue to be monitored by future shifts. For the winds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning there is a 50 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front.

On Wednesday and Thursday there is greater than a 80% chance for high temperatures of 60 degrees or greater across much of North- central Montana. On Wednesday there is a 30 - 50% chance for high temperatures of 60 degrees or greater across the valleys of Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday there is a 40 - 80% chance for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater from Shelby to Great Falls to Lewistown. On Thursday there is greater than an 80% chance for high temperatures of 60 degrees or greater in the valleys of Southwestern Montana. On Thursday from Shelby to Great Falls to Lewistown there is a 60 - 90% chance for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater. On Thursday there is a 30 - 50% chance for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater in the valleys of Southwestern Montana. On Thursday from Shelby to Great Falls to Lewistown there is a 30 - 60% chance for high temperatures of 70 degrees or greater. On Friday across most of the lower-elevations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana there is greater than a 50% chance for high temperatures of 60 degrees or greater. On Friday from Great Falls to Lewistown along the Montana Highway 200/US Highway 87 Corridor and across the Gallatin Valley there is greater than a 55% chance for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater. On Friday from Great Falls to Lewistown along the Montana Highway 200/US Highway 87 Corridor there is a 30 - 50% chance for high temperatures of 70 degrees or greater. -IG

AVIATION

02/06Z TAF Period

Gusty surface winds and mountain wave activity will be the initial concern this TAF period, mainly over the plains. A few areas of light precipitation continue along the Rocky Mountain Front through the night, with a few additional areas of precipitation on the plains through the morning Monday. Breezy winds spread across much of the region through the day Monday before subsiding late day. Mountains will be obscured around precipitation through Monday morning. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 36 54 33 52 / 20 10 10 10 CTB 34 51 32 50 / 20 10 10 10 HLN 34 49 32 50 / 10 0 20 10 BZN 26 47 27 48 / 10 0 20 10 WYS 8 35 13 36 / 10 0 20 20 DLN 24 45 27 49 / 10 0 10 10 HVR 29 51 28 48 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 33 50 29 46 / 20 30 10 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.