textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with near normal temperatures Monday.

- An active, cooler week forecasted.

- Gusty winds develop along the Rocky Mountain Front Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1057 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

As the main trough axis moves off to the east, an area of high pressure moves into the region. As a result, there will be dry conditions Monday, with temperatures near normal. There will be a concern for frost across North-Central MT with some Southwest MT valleys having a concern for a hard freeze this morning. Tuesday through Thursday, an upper- level trough will impact the region. This will bring on and off precipitation over that time frame. Southwest flow Tuesday will advect in weak instability, which will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop. Cold air aloft working it's way down will cool temperatures to below normal Wednesday. Snow levels falling as low as 6,500ft Wednesday morning will allow for light snow to fall at the higher mountain peaks. 700mb winds increase along the Rocky Mountain Front late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Gusty winds will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front and North-Central MT.

After that system exits, another wave tries to move into the region. Models do diverge a little bit this weekend, but generally it looks to trend more active with temperatures near to slightly below average through the beginning of next week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Models do have the 700mb jet increasing to 40 to 50kts late Tuesday into Wednesday morning along the Rocky Mountian Front. These winds do spread a bit farther out to Central MT on Wednesday, spreading out the gusty winds to the east. However, probabilities for high winds is low, with up to a 20 to 40% chance for 50 mph winds across North- Central MT and a 60% chance at Judith Basin County. Along the Rocky Mountain Front there's a 40-60% chance for 58 mph wind gusts Wednesday.

It seems like the best area to get precipitation is Southwest MT where they have a 40-70% chance for 0.5" of precipitation Tuesday through Thursday. Everywhere else, there is generally between a 30 to 70% chance for 0.1" of precipitation during this time frame. -Wilson

AVIATION

08/06Z TAF Period

Gusty winds continue to slowly decrease tonight, but will gust over 40 kts at times along the Rocky Mountain Front through around 08/09Z. Seasonably breezy conditions return by Monday afternoon. General VFR conditions prevail, although there may be some patchy fog development over some wind protected valleys between 08/09 and 08/15Z. Continued to omit the mention of fog given unfavorable forecast soundings and probabilities for fog running less than 15%, but will be monitoring the KBZN and KWYS. - RCG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 37 71 48 69 / 0 0 0 30 CTB 36 67 44 65 / 20 0 0 20 HLN 34 71 49 68 / 0 0 10 80 BZN 29 71 47 67 / 10 0 10 90 WYS 25 64 37 54 / 0 0 70 100 DLN 30 70 46 65 / 0 0 30 90 HVR 37 73 47 74 / 20 0 0 20 LWT 32 69 45 68 / 0 0 0 70

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.