textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of light snow continue along the Continental Divide and the island ranges of central Montana with a low potential for a rain/snow mix at lower elevations on Sunday.

- Widespread snow is likely to accompany a transition to a colder and more active weather pattern beginning Tuesday.

UPDATE

No major changes to make this morning beyond accounting for some cooler than expected temperatures across the plains. Watching for some snow over the Little Belts through the day today, but I do not expect it to cause many impacts, and so I have elected to not issue any Winter Weather Advisories at this time. Ludwig

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1211 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Flat upper level ridging remains in place across the Northern Rockies and MT through the rest of the weekend in between a split upper level trough offshore of the west coast and deeper trough shifting across northern Canada. A plume of Pacific moisture streaming out of the offshore trough across the Northern Rockies will support some periods of mainly mountain precipitation, with measurable precip/accumulating snowfall primarily focused along the continental divide. A few light rain/snow showers may accompany an embedded disturbance moving east across north-central MT Sunday morning. Otherwise, the overall mild conditions persist across the area through Monday with breezy to locally windy conditions along the Rocky Mtn Front and portions of north-central MT diminishing this evening. Meanwhile, gusty southwest winds will persist across southwest MT, mainly over ridgetops and valleys with N-S alignment, where winds will increase further on Monday as southerly flow increases ahead of the incoming upper level trough.

A significant transition in our overall weather pattern occurs on Tuesday as the offshore trough moves inland and deepens in response to upper level energy diving south out of the Gulf of AK. Models are in reasonable agreement with a wave of energy lifting out of the trough and across the area Tuesday, supporting a period of widespread precipitation/snow. Cooling aloft arrives initially beneath the upper level trough before a lower level cold airmass surges south from AB into the area later Tuesday through Tuesday night. Colder (near to below seasonal) temperatures are likely to follow through the remainder of the week with additional energy moving through the trough maintaining chances for at least some localized snowfall. Hoenisch

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow Sunday:

Light snow is expected to continue along the Continental Divide through Sunday evening with snowfall amounts generally less than 2 inches expected. There is a low chance for a light rain/snow mix along portions of the northern plains. The limiting factor will whether these showers are able to overcome the dry layer at the surface. Thus accumulations at lower elevations are expected to be rather minimal at this time. Along the island ranges of central Montana there is a chance for light snow showers with the greatest chance for impactful snow in the Little Belts and along Kings Hill Pass. Right now impacts are expected to stay below advisory- level criteria but folks traveling in the area should be prepared for rapidly changing road and weather conditions.

Snow Tuesday/Wednesday:

Snowfall amounts in the mountains have remained more or less the same compared to previous forecasts with a slight increase in snow totals along the Continental Divide in Lewis and Clark county. Right now, the heaviest snow is still expected above pass level with MacDonald Pass and Rogers Pass having only a 30-40% probability of exceeding 4 inches.

One of the limiting factors for this event will be how quickly the system moves through the region. If it slows down at all then there is a greater chance for some of the higher snow amounts. Additionally, there is a chance that some wrap-around moisture could provide some additional snowfall amounts across north- central Montana. But there is still a bit of disagreement into the models as to how exactly this system will play out.

The wild card with this event is the northern plains. Depending on which model you prefer you can either get no snow or 3 to 5 inches of snow. Right now the bulk of the models are keeping the northern plains in the range of 1 to 2 inches with a 20-30% chance for greater than 4 inches along the Hi-Line and a 40-50% chance for 4+ inches along the Highway 200 corridor between Great Falls and Lewistown. For now this seems like a very reasonable output as locally higher amounts are possible but there is very little confidence on where exactly these higher amounts will occur.

Ultimately everything looks advisory-level at this point and there is not enough confidence in any one location receiving enough snow to warrant a Winter Storm Watch at this time.

Much Colder Temperatures Wednesday-Friday:

Behind this system, much colder temperatures settle into the region. The models continue to trend cooler although the difference between this forecast package and the previous forecast is not as drastic. Between the colder airmass coming down and the additional cooling due to snowpack, there is a potential for sub- zero lows across the Hi-Line Wednesday and Thursday with wind chill values in the 10 to 20 below range. -thor

AVIATION

15/06Z TAF Period

After clouds slowly increase overnight, our attention turns to a shortwave and attendant cold frontal passage that will bring scattered light rain and snow showers, low VFR/MVFR cloud cover, and mountain obscuration early this morning and into day on Sunday. The precipitation will generally be most widespread over central/north-central MT between 15/12 and 15/18Z, but weak instability looks to maintain at least isolated shower activity Sunday afternoon. - RCG/Ludwig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 49 32 58 28 / 40 10 10 30 CTB 46 23 51 20 / 10 10 10 20 HLN 51 28 54 28 / 50 20 10 40 BZN 53 28 54 30 / 10 30 0 40 WYS 39 18 40 24 / 20 20 20 80 DLN 52 27 51 32 / 10 10 0 50 HVR 47 25 54 26 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 46 28 53 28 / 30 20 0 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.