textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of mainly light mountain snow Thursday.

- Gusty winds persists along the Rocky Mountain Front through the and of the week, with the strongest winds from Friday evening to Saturday morning.

- Above normal temperatures continue into next week.

UPDATE

/Issued 827 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026/

Slight adjustments were made to the short-term forecast based on updated model guidance. Otherwise, no major changes were made to the going forecast. -thor

DISCUSSION

/Issued 827 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring in light mountain snow and lower elevations rain/snow through the overnight hours. Current radar does show some light reflectivity from Hill through Judith Basin County and east. Surface observations show precipitation is struggling to reach the surface, and if it does, it is very light. High pressure will briefly push out precipitation Thursday morning before another weakening shortwave moves through the region during the afternoon and evening. Here, precipitation will mainly be along higher terrain, with up to an inch in snow accumulations expected. This weak disturbance will also keep gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front Thursday.

Brief ridging aloft follows Friday morning before a more potent shortwave moves through later in the day Friday through Saturday morning. This system will bring a stronger mid level jet, which will create the windiest conditions of the week for the Rocky Mountain Front. This system will also bring more light snow along the Continental Divide and Rocky Mountain Front. There's a slight chance for light precipitation for Blaine/Fergus Counties Friday evening through Saturday morning. With warm air advection with this system, we will have to watch for light freezing rain/drizzle. Though, there remains model variability if those areas even get precipitation development from this system.

Behind that system, upper level ridging moves in again for the weekend, keeping the weather dry and mild across the region. Temperatures are expected to peak Saturday and Sunday. Weak troughing does look to develop beginning of next week along the west coast, but looks like any precipitation developing will be light.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Winds Friday/Saturday:

There remains some uncertainty in how strong the winds will be Friday night into Saturday morning. Models do show the mid level jet peaking at 50-60kts at 700mb. However, it seems this wave may be a little too fast to give these mid level winds time to mix down to the surface. Ensembles still don't seem to on board with high winds yet. Probabilities greater than a 40% chance for 58 mph or greater lies on the immediate eastern foothills of the Rocky Mountain Front at this time. There is still a slight chance the winds keep up trending, and a high wind product may be needed if that happens.

Precipitation Friday/Saturday:

The synoptics look in place for the slight potential of light freezing precipitation mainly in Blaine County Friday evening through early Saturday morning. Warm air advection along the warm front will put favorable thermal profiles in place for freezing rain. The main difference between model guidance is if mid level dry air will win, and keep the area dry. Right now confidence is low, but it's something to keep an eye on in the coming days. -Wilson

AVIATION

29/18Z TAF Period

There is a small chance for an isolated shower along the divide through the period. Otherwise most other areas east of the divide will just have some passing mid/high level clouds. Surface winds will be windy at times over the Plains in the Browning and Cut Bank areas. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 48 32 50 37 / 0 10 10 0 CTB 45 30 48 35 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 45 28 45 34 / 10 10 10 0 BZN 42 22 44 27 / 10 10 10 0 WYS 28 9 31 15 / 30 10 20 10 DLN 40 21 42 24 / 10 10 0 0 HVR 40 21 43 30 / 0 0 0 10 LWT 43 25 47 33 / 0 0 0 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.