textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Briefly breezier again tonight through Monday, mostly over the plains. - Mild temperatures persist through the week, slightly less mild Monday and Tuesday.

- Daily record highs will be challenged Wednesday through Friday as strong upper level ridging builds in across the west.

UPDATE

Today it will be warm and mostly dry across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This evening winds will increase across North-central Montana. This evening into Monday morning there will be light mountain snow along the Continental Divide and an isolated rain/snow mix across portions of North- central Montana. For the update high temperatures were increased across North-central Montana to reflect current observations and trends. Winds across the wind prone areas of North-central Montana were increased through this evening. Pops along the Continental Divide were increased this evening to reflect the latest hi-res model guidance. The rest of the forecast is on track. -IG

DISCUSSION

/Issued 420 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging, with axis centered across the region will continue to nudge eastward through the day today in advance of a shortwave arriving late today from the Pacific Northwest. The result for today will be for another mild day, with less wind through most of the day. As the upper level disturbance (shortwave) arrives this evening, westerly winds increase from west to east through the night, lasting through the day Monday. Although temperatures do cool slightly Monday behind this system, they still look to easily be on the mild side of average. Precipitation looks to be sparse with this system, focused along the Continental Divide and across portions of the plains northeast of Great Falls.

High amplitude upper level ridging begins developing Monday night, though a subtle disturbance flowing through the developing northwesterly flow aloft will result in light mainly mountain precipitation into early Tuesday morning. The ridging becomes entrenched by Wednesday, which will last through the remainder of the week. Temperatures respond accordingly, rising well above average Wednesday through Friday. Daily record highs look to be at the very least approached, if not exceeded over this timeframe.

Confidence in specifics wanes heading into next weekend, though there is not a strong signal for a sharp pattern change at this point. -AM

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Winds this evening into Monday:

Forecast soundings are not overly impressive from a wind perspective this evening into Monday in most areas. That said, areas east/southeast of terrain over the plains do look to see a localized risk for stronger winds and gusts. Given this risk is localized, and is in areas that typically these localized stronger winds/gusts a High Wind Watch/Warning is not being considered at this time. Should confidence increase in more widespread stronger winds, further consideration will be given toward a High Wind Warning.

Precipitation over the plains late tonight and early Monday:

At this point the probability for any precipitation northeast of a Cut Bank to Lewistown line late tonight and early Monday peaks around 30%. Forecast soundings do show enough cooling near the surface for snow to mix in at least briefly in areas where precipitation does develop. Given there looks to be gusty winds developing in tandem, some minor travel difficulties cannot be ruled out Monday morning. Plan for a few extra minutes for traveling Monday morning in these areas.

Temperatures this week:

Confidence remains exceptionally high for a period of anomalously warm temperatures, particularly Wednesday through Friday across the region. The only area at lower elevations with a less than 50% probability to see a 60F high on Thursday is Havre and vicinity (roughly 40% in Havre proper). -AM

AVIATION

01/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will persist throughout the duration of the 0112/0212 TAF period, but CIGS will begin to lower beyond 00z Monday as an upper level disturbance begins to move over the Northern Rockies. This increase in mid-level cloud cover will lead to mountain obscuration, most notably along the Continental Divide. While a few like rain/snow showers can't be ruled out beyond 06z Monday confidence in any precipitation being realized at a give terminal was too low to mention. Otherwise southwest to west surface winds will be on the increase through the overnight hours over the plains of Central and North Central Montana, with increasing instances of mountain wave turbulence and the potential for low level wind shear. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 59 36 52 34 / 0 10 10 10 CTB 55 34 48 32 / 0 10 10 0 HLN 54 32 49 32 / 0 10 10 10 BZN 54 26 48 26 / 0 10 10 10 WYS 38 8 36 12 / 0 10 10 10 DLN 52 24 46 25 / 0 10 0 0 HVR 50 27 49 28 / 0 20 20 0 LWT 57 33 47 29 / 0 20 10 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.