textproduct: Great Falls
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Breezy winds diminishing this evening over the plains.
- Trending warmer this week.
- Breezy Tuesday and Wednesday over the plains.
DISCUSSION
- Meteorological Overview:
Although lingering cyclonic flow aloft will be in place across the region through the remainder of the day, cooler surface temperatures will keep showery precipitation at bay. Troughing presently off the west coast of the CONUS will continue diving SE toward CA by Sunday. A southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this trough will yield ample cloud cover through the day Sunday, with a low-end opportunity for a few light showers, particularly Sunday evening. Lingering influence from troughing will yield another opportunity for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the vicinity of West Yellowstone Monday.
A zonal flow aloft develops after Monday as the aforementioned troughing continues southeastward toward the four-corners region. Temperatures trend slightly warmer as a result, with breezy stretch developing over the plains Tuesday and Wednesday. Most, if not all of the upcoming week is looking dry. -AM
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Cross barrier flow looks to peak sometime on Tuesday. The probability for a 55 mph gust around Cut Bank is in the vicinity of 25%.
A few deterministic runs continue to hint at a trough moving across the region late week into the weekend, but ensemble support is minimal. Hence, A dry scenario is favored next weekend, with around a 20% chance for a trend toward a wetter scenario. -AM
AVIATION
26/12z TAF Period.
Strong winds should begin to diminish by mid morning over the western portions of North Central MT. Expect passing clouds during the day today, with breezy conditions elsewhere through this afternoon. Clearing skies and light winds are expected across the CWA this evening. Mountains/passes could be obscured at times this morning over the Northern Rockies as some light rain/snow falls in this area. Brusda
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 36 64 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 32 58 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 35 65 43 71 / 0 0 20 0 BZN 36 64 40 68 / 0 0 10 10 WYS 32 64 36 59 / 0 10 60 60 DLN 36 65 40 67 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 36 68 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 35 64 42 69 / 0 0 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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