textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It will be warm and mostly dry through Thursday with precipitation returning to the mountains Thursday evening through Friday.

- It will be windy Monday afternoon with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15.

UPDATE

Decreasing mid to upper level clouds in and near the Milk River Valley look to combine with light winds and recent precipitation to result in some patchy fog in these areas by Sunday morning. Given not much else is going on across the region through the overnight, this was the only tweak to the forecast this evening. -AM

DISCUSSION

/Issued 346 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon there is an upper-level trough over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with the cold front will bring about seasonal average temperatures to the area with mostly dry weather. On Sunday there will be an upper-level ridge over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up with mostly dry weather on Sunday. On Monday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry weather to the area on Monday. Monday afternoon/evening the upper-level ridge flattens associated with an upper-level shortwave. This combined with strong low and mid-level winds will bring a period of gusty winds to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15 Monday afternoon and evening.

On Tuesday an upper-level ridge builds back over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This upper-level ridge will remain over the area through Thursday and bring warm and mostly dry weather to the area Tuesday through Thursday afternoon. Tuesday through Thursday there will be upper-level shortwaves that move through the upper-level flow which will bring periods of breezy winds. Thursday evening an upper-level trough moves towards Montana. The upper-level trough will remain over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Friday. This will bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to the area Thursday evening through Friday. IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

On Monday there is a 55 - 80% chance for wind gusts in excess of 55 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. There is uncertainty is how much mixing will occur Monday afternoon along the plains west of I-15 due to cloud cover inhibiting mixing Monday afternoon. Due to this and the Rocky Mountain Front being a higher criteria for a High Wind Warning, a High Wind Watch was not issued at this time. Future shifts will continue to monitor the need for High Wind Products. On Monday there is a 40 - 75% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph across the rest of North-central Montana. On Tuesday there is greater than a 40% chance for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph across most of North-central Montana. IG

AVIATION

09/00Z TAF Period

Scattered high clouds with generally light winds will continue through the period for all TAF sites. There is around a 20% chance for fog developing at KHVR overnight, however, high clouds may end up being a limiting factor so for now it was left out of the TAF. -thor

The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume next spring.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 26 57 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 21 54 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 24 53 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 20 51 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 12 44 18 47 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 21 52 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 20 47 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 23 52 34 65 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.