textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds possible today over the eastern portions of the CWA.

- Afternoon temperatures not quite as warm as they have been, but still mostly above normal for most areas over the next week.

- A small chance for a passing shower today and Sunday, otherwise it is looking mostly dry for the next week or so.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: A strong northwesterly flow aloft will reside over the CWA today. This will allow for the potential of strong winds at the surface over the eastern portions of the CWA today. Thus the high wind watch was changed to a high wind warning. Afternoon temperatures will be cooler today as well. There is a small chance for a convective rain/snow shower to develop this afternoon...mainly between Great Falls and Lewistown.

Otherwise, for Friday through next Wednesday, it is looking mostly dry, with generally above normal temperatures, even though it will not be quite as warm as it has been. There is a small chance for some light rain/snow showers on Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves southward through the CWA, but the overall probability is quite low at this time.

For next Thu/Fri...the forecast models want a stronger cold front to push southward through the CWA. However, the forecast models have been trending slower and further east with the main cold front. Thus confidence is low right on how cold it will get and how much snow will fall for late next week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There is a 90 percent chance of winds in excess of warning criteria over the eastern portions of the CWA today. Overall, the strongest wind gusts will be more isolated then they have been. That being said, winds will still be strong enough to create some areas of blowing dust.

AVIATION

15/12Z TAF Period

Expect some high clouds early this morning, but mid/low clouds will redevelop this afternoon over Central MT. A few light rain/snow showers could develop between Great Falls and Lewistown as well. Otherwise, windy conditions are expected over the eastern portions of the CWA today. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 48 22 36 18 / 10 10 0 0 CTB 42 19 35 16 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 49 22 35 18 / 10 10 0 0 BZN 49 17 34 14 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 36 4 27 1 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 49 19 34 16 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 42 19 31 12 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 47 19 30 15 / 20 10 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from noon today to 5 AM MST Friday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and Liberty- Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County.