textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers end late this evening.

- Dry conditions along with warmer temperatures expected Saturday through Tuesday.

- The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is next Wednesday, some of which could be strong storms.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: An unstable northwesterly flow aloft resides over MT this afternoon. With an upper level disturbance moving southeastward through the CWA, scattered snow showers will continue to affect the CWA into the evening hours. More stable air arrives after 9 PM, thus the snow showers will gradually diminish after that.

For the weekend and into early next week, an upper level ridge of high pressure will develop over the northern Rockies. This will allow for quiet weather conditions, along with a very nice warming trend. Afternoon temperatures will warm about 5 to 10 degrees daily through Monday. By Tuesday, some areas could be near record high temperatures.

Next Wed/Thu...An upper level trof will approach MT from the southwest by Wednesday afternoon. An unstable southwesterly flow aloft will precede this trof. There is the potential that a few storms could become strong on Wed as the upper level disturbance arrives by Wed evening. As the upper level trof moves through Wed night into Thu, colder air will slowly move back into the CWA. Snow levels will lower throughout the day on Thu. By Friday morning, snow will be possible once again at all elevations. Afternoon temperatures will be much cooler by next Thu.

Next Fri..the flow aloft will quickly switch back to more of a northwesterly flow aloft. With an upper level disturbance moving southward, there is a chance for scattered rain/snow showers, with much below normal temperatures continuing.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

There is up to a 90 percent chance that some locations could see record high temperatures on Tuesday afternoon. Thus, there is some potential that afternoon temperatures could be raised a few degrees over the next few days for next Tue.

For next Wed into Thur, there is a 50 percent chance for 1/2 inch of rainfall over Central MT and a 25 percent chance for 1 inch of liquid. Snow amounts could exceed 4 inches in the mountains over Central and Southwest MT, possibly resulting in winter statements. Brusda

AVIATION

18/00Z TAF Period

Scattered snow showers will continue over Central MT through about 05z, then slowly diminish overnight. Generally/dry/quiet conditions expected on Saturday with VFR conditions. Do expect surface winds to increase during the afternoon hours though. Mountains/passes will be obscured by showers/clouds through about 10z Sat. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 26 59 29 69 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 21 57 25 68 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 25 59 31 69 / 30 0 0 0 BZN 18 57 26 68 / 30 0 0 0 WYS 11 46 16 58 / 40 0 0 0 DLN 20 55 26 67 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 25 60 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 23 55 29 65 / 10 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.