textproduct: Great Falls
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Drier and cooler conditions expected the next several days.
- The next chance for precipitation arrives on Monday evening.
DISCUSSION
- Meteorological Overview: The storm system that produced the widespread rain/snow on Friday has exited the area already this morning. In its wake, mainly some low clouds, along with patchy fog, but much cooler temperatures have also moved into the region. The fog should thin out by late morning, otherwise expect below normal temperatures this afternoon.
The below normal temperatures are likely to last most of the week for much of the region.
The next weather system arrives Monday night into Tuesday, as an upper level low approaches from the west. At this time, precipitation amounts look to be a bit lighter than this past weather system.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The main concern with the next weather system will once again be when does the rain change to snow. The airmass will be cooler, so it is likely that snow levels will start out quite a bit lower. The main question is will the rain to change all the way down to plains/valley floors? The forecast models vary, with some models keeping the snow level above 4500 feet, thus rain falling at the lowest elevations. Also, precipitation amounts should be lighter with this system, thus right now it looks like the highest potential for any winter statements will mainly be in the mountain areas south of I-90 from Butte to Bozeman. Brusda
AVIATION
24/06Z TAF Period
Low ceilings and patchy fog will affect portions of the CWA through this morning. Expect ceiling to rise by late morning, while the fog also begins to thin out. Dry conditions are expected across the CWA through the period. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times through this morning by low ceilings/fog. Brusda
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 40 22 35 22 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 41 22 38 20 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 42 23 39 23 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 41 20 43 19 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 45 14 52 17 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 43 24 45 26 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 44 20 44 22 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 41 20 39 23 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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