textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy, dry and mild conditions persist through the first half of next week.

- Strong winds are expected on Monday over much of North Central MT.

- Near record high temperatures and unseasonably mild overnight minimum temperatures expected early next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 229 PM MST Sat Jan 10 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

An upper level ridge with axis currently centered across the Northern Rockies will remain in place but de-amplify some through Sunday as a series of shortwave disturbances track east across BC/AB well north of the the area. A moderate surface pressure gradient across the Rockies is maintained, keeping windy conditions in place across much of north-central MT through the rest of the weekend. 700MB flow across the Rocky Mtn Front peaks around 50-60kts late this afternoon, maintaining a risk for strong wind gusts there into this evening.

A stronger shortwave moves over the ridge Sunday night through Monday, increasing the mid-level west-northwesterly flow and enhancing the surface pressure gradient for a period of more widespread strong winds across north-central MT on Monday as a 60- 70kt wind maximum at 700MB moves across the area. A narrow plume of Pacific moisture is directed across the area on Tuesday as well but precipitation appears fairly light and limited to areas along the continental divide.

Temperatures remain well above average through at least the middle of the upcoming week with near record afternoon temperatures likely Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level ridging re-builds and amplifies across the interior NW US. Persistent winds and ample mid-higgh level cloud-cover will also keep overnight temperatures mild with minimum temps Monday and Tuesday near or above average daytime maximums for this time of year.

Model ensembles are in fair agreement that upper ridge axis shifts west/offshore late next week into the weekend as shortwave energy drops southeast over the ridge through AB into the northern US plains. The majority of medium range ensemble members support some cooling in this period with temperatures remaining somewhat above seasonal averages and little or no precipitation. There is a small subset of mostly GFS ensemble members that track the shortwave energy further west across MT with stronger cooling and precipitation. Hoenisch

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Ongoing strong winds along the Rocky Mtn Front late this afternoon should diminish some by midnight as winds aloft slightly decrease but very windy conditions with periodic gusts in excess of 50 mph are likely to persist along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent areas through Sunday.

Confidence in a more widespread strong wind event developing across much of north-central MT Sunday night and continuing through Monday remains high with probabilities for gusts in excess of 55 mph 60% or higher in areas adjacent to the island ranges and Little Belts and similar probabilities for gusts in excess of 75 mph along the Rocky Mtn Front. Hoenisch

AVIATION

11/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with passing mid- to high-level cloudiness. Breezy conditions will continue across north-central and central Montana with periods of LLWS and mountain wave turbulence possible, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. -thor

FIRE WEATHER

Persistent gusty winds, above average temperatures and recent dryness will elevate grassland fire danger through early next week. Initially low atmospheric moisture/humidity through Sunday will increase some as Pacific moisture streams inland with stronger winds and warmer temperatures early next week. Daytime humidity is not particularly critical and likely to be 30% or higher by Monday and Tuesday, however mild overnight temperatures and relatively poor (for the season) overnight humidity recovery on the plains may still bring an enhanced grassland fire risk to some areas. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 38 52 42 59 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 32 47 38 53 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 26 44 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 22 43 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 5 32 7 34 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 22 42 25 49 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 30 47 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 32 54 35 59 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until midnight MST tonight for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains.

High Wind Warning from 8 PM Sunday to 9 PM MST Monday for East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM MST Monday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below 5000ft- Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County-Western and Central Chouteau County.