textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It is a return to more typical January like temperatures today.

- There is the potential for a short period of strong winds late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night over Blaine County.

- Other than a small chance for a passing snow shower on Sunday in the mountains, no precipitation is expected until late next week.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: The strong winds from Thursday have diminished over the eastern portions of the CWA this morning, thus the high wind warning has been cancelled. Otherwise, temperatures are a bit more January like across the CWA this morning, with many areas in the teens and 20s, and wind chills in the single digits. Expect afternoon temperatures today to be quite a bit cooler when compared to earlier in the week, with most locations closer or just above normal.

Overall, an upper level ridge will be centered just off the West coast for the next several days. This will generally result in a north to northwest flow aloft over MT for the next several days. Thus afternoon temperatures will not be quite as warm as they have been through the middle of next week. Additionally, there is a chance for a short period of strong winds once again, mostly on Saturday night over Blaine County. Thus a high wind watch has been issued for that area. Additionally, on Sunday, a weak upper level disturbance will move southward through the eastern half of the CWA. This could result in a few light snow showers, mostly over the mountains between Great Falls and Lewistown.

As we go into late next week, the forecast models continue to try to bring a stronger cold front southward through the CWA. The forecast models continue to delay this front, but overall it looks like it should come through late next Thu or Fri. There is a chance for precipitation with this front, but the models have been very uncertain on amounts/timing of the precip, thus confidence is low in the snowfall chances for late next week at this time.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Currently, the probability for strong winds on Saturday evening is just under 50 percent for most areas of Blaine County. However, since mid level winds continue to strengthen, and are now progged to be stronger than the wind event yesterday, a high wind watch was issued for Blaine County. Brusda

AVIATION

16/12Z TAF Period

Overall, VFR conditions will prevail across the CWA through the period. Some mid clouds over Southwest MT will slowly lift during the day. Overall surface winds will not be quite as strong as they have been. A few mountains/passes will be obscured over Southwest MT, mainly this morning. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 37 20 48 25 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 35 16 48 24 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 36 19 42 22 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 33 15 42 19 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 26 0 31 3 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 34 17 43 19 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 32 12 41 22 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 29 15 48 24 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Northern Blaine County.