textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy winds diminishing this evening over the plains.

- Trending warmer this week.

- Breezy Tuesday and Wednesday over the plains.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 134 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Although lingering cyclonic flow aloft will be in place across the region through the remainder of the day, cooler surface temperatures will keep showery precipitation at bay. Troughing presently off the west coast of the CONUS will continue diving SE toward CA by Sunday. A southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this trough will yield ample cloud cover through the day Sunday, with a low-end opportunity for a few light showers, particularly Sunday evening. Lingering influence from troughing will yield another opportunity for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the vicinity of West Yellowstone Monday.

A zonal flow aloft develops after Monday as the aforementioned troughing continues southeastward toward the four-corners region. Temperatures trend slightly warmer as a result, with breezy stretch developing over the plains Tuesday and Wednesday. Most, if not all of the upcoming week is looking dry. -AM

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Cross barrier flow looks to peak sometime on Tuesday. The probability for a 55 mph gust around Cut Bank is in the vicinity of 25%.

A few deterministic runs continue to hint at a trough moving across the region late week into the weekend, but ensemble support is minimal. Hence, A dry scenario is favored next weekend, with around a 20% chance for a trend toward a wetter scenario. -AM

AVIATION

27/00z TAF Period.

Strong winds will start to taper off over the next couple hours with light and variable winds expected during the overnight hours into Sunday morning across the region. Mid- to high-level clouds will linger throughout the

Across North-Central and Central Montana, scattered mid- to high- level clouds will continue through the first half of the period becoming more broken late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.

Across Southwest Montana, broken to overcast mid-level clouds will linger through the entire period. Mountain obscuration may be a concern at times with the potential for a few lower-level clouds filtering in after 27/12Z but VFR conditions are expected to persist at all terminals in Southwest Montana through 28/00Z. -thor

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 36 64 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 32 58 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 35 65 43 71 / 0 0 20 0 BZN 36 64 40 68 / 0 0 10 10 WYS 32 64 36 59 / 0 10 60 60 DLN 36 65 40 67 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 36 68 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 35 64 42 69 / 0 0 10 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.