textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds slowly diminish through the day today and into the evening from north to south.

- Mainly light snow across portions of the Hi-Line this afternoon into Saturday morning.

- The cooler airmass that briefly moves in over the plains today into tonight retreats northeastward this weekend, leading to a mild week next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1200 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Strong surface high pressure in SW ID along with relatively deep surface troughing along the Rocky Mountain Front early this morning is resulting in continued gusty winds across portions of Central and North-central Montana. An upper level disturbance sliding southeastward across central Manitoba early this morning will result in a cold front slipping south of the Canadian border through the day today. As this front slips southward, it will result in rapidly decreasing winds and a wind shift to a more northerly to northeasterly direction.

That said, there remains considerable uncertainty how far south this front actually makes it. The most aggressive guidance brings the front as far south as the Great Falls area late this morning, while the majority of the guidance only brings this front as far south as a Cut Bank to Grass Range Line through the day today. This presents a difficult forecast, as temperatures in that buffer zone may initially be mild before cooling down, perhaps just to warm back up as westerly surface winds end up winning out by the afternoon. What complicates things further is that zonal flow aloft remains in excess of 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain Front and down toward the MacDonald Pass area through the day today. Local extensions of the High Wind Warning may ultimately be necessary, depending on trends late this morning.

All that to say that the temperature and wind forecast across the plains today is quite complicated. Confidence is highest in these cooler temperatures and northerly winds moving into the Havre area this morning. Some light snow gradually develops in this area toward the afternoon as upper level forcing becomes more favorable. Snow becomes the most persistent in this area this evening/tonight before slowly diminishing Saturday. There also looks to be some light snow that develops along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front through the day today, primarily around and north of Marias Pass. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the aforementioned areas through late tonight or Saturday morning.

A secondary push of cooler air from the north moves in overnight, making it to the Little Belts and adjacent ranges by Saturday morning. This push of cooler air is relatively weak/shallow however, which both limits the opportunity for snow further south and also allows for the cooler airmass to be quickly modified through the day Sunday.

A westerly to slightly northwesterly flow aloft looks to persist from Sunday through the middle of next week, which will keep temperatures on the mild side with little opportunity for precipitation through Wednesday morning. Upper level troughing then looks to move in from the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday into Thursday, though there is considerable uncertainty with respect to exact timing, depth, as well as if the troughing ultimately splits (Results in weaker troughing over the Northern Rockies, limiting potential precipitation amounts). -AM

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wind Today:

Cross barrier flow at 700mb will remain stout through the day today, particularly in areas along the Southern Rocky Mountain Front down to MacDonald Pass. Forecast cross sections in these areas show at least localized descending air from areas near this stronger flow aloft through the entire day. What makes this tricky is that the going High Wind Warning expires at 11 AM for these areas. Given the threat for these stronger wind gusts persisting appears to be more isolated than not, I am opting to not extend the High Wind Warnings in these areas. Trends will be monitored through the morning for any local extensions.

Snow Through Saturday Morning:

Areas most favored for a couple inches of snow look to be along and north of US-2 east of Havre in Blaine county over this timeframe. The probability for 2 inches of snow in these areas is roughly 60%.

Troughing next week:

Ensemble means do favor troughing moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest coastline toward the middle of next week. These same ensembles also favor at least some form of splitting, sending the best forcing southward toward NV/UT. This solution would still favor at least low end probabilities for precipitation, but any amounts would be on the lower side should it verify as described. -AM

AVIATION

27/12Z TAF Period

A Canadian cold front will become nearly stationary over the plains this afternoon before advancing southward deeper into central MT tonight. The primary impact from this front will be a northerly wind shift and scattered to broken low VFR/MVFR clouds, mostly for the Hi- Line terminals. South and west of the front, gusty westerly winds will persist for much of today for areas along the Rocky Mountain Front and over central/southwest MT. MVFR/IFR clouds and light snow increase over the plains after 28/00Z, especially along the Hi- Line. - RCG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 49 23 40 20 / 10 20 20 0 CTB 45 12 33 13 / 20 30 20 0 HLN 51 29 51 27 / 0 10 0 0 BZN 55 28 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 35 13 42 18 / 0 0 0 20 DLN 50 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 35 14 31 11 / 40 60 30 0 LWT 45 22 39 20 / 10 20 30 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap- Northern High Plains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Saturday for East Glacier Park Region.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM MST Saturday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Northern Blaine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Saturday for Fergus County below 4500ft.