textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today, then warmth returns for the weekend. - Dry and breezy conditions return to Southwestern Montana early next week. - Unsettled weather conditions look to return to Montana around the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 115 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

In the wake of a surface cold front that pushed through the area overnight and early this morning, temperatures have been noticeably cooler than recent days with afternoon highs topping out in the 20s to 30s across the plains and in the mid 40s across the southwestern valleys. This cooldown will not last long, however, as upper level ridging builds back in over the Northern Rockies and brings warmer temperatures back to the area for Friday and into early next week, save for a potential slight cooldown Sunday along the Hi Line thanks to a weak cold front.

Our weather pattern will begin to shift Monday and Tuesday as an upper level trough begins to push into the area, bringing cooler temperatures and increased chances for precipitation. While uncertainty remains at this time, models seem to have most agreement in precipitation across Central and Southwestern Montana, with precipitation less likely along the Hi Line at this point. However, a second and stronger system may push into the area for the second half of the week, which would bring more widespread and heavier precipitation to the Treasure State.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Temperatures on Sunday: Recent model runs have begun to show a weak surface cold front sneaking across the Canadian Border Sunday afternoon and evening, which would allow cooler temperatures just north of the border to slide to the North Central Plains. Given the remaining uncertainty as to just how far south this feature will make it and the timing of which it does so, I opted to leave the NBM temperature forecast intact for now. That said, I would not be entirely surprised to see temperatures wind up being slightly cooler than currently forecast.

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions on Monday: Monday will likely be a breezy day across Southwestern Montana as our upper level ridge begins to break down a bit ahead of an approaching upper level trough. This could result in some elevated fire weather conditions across the Southwestern Valleys, but there are a few limiting factors at play. The big one will be increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching trough, which would limit how much thermal mixing occurs. Should the cloud cover prevail, RH values would be unlikely to fall to the current forecast levels, and wind gusts would likely be weaker. However, thinner cloud cover would help promote this mixing, reducing humidity values and increasing wind gusts. At this point, it appears that the cloud cover will likely prevent a worst case scenario, but it is worth keeping an eye on things in case the forecast changes. Ludwig

AVIATION

27/00Z TAF Period.

Any lingering gusty north to northwesterly winds decrease this evening and become more southerly overnight. South to southwesterly winds increase again over the plains and in the KEKS area on Friday with gusts mostly staying below 25 kts. Aside from some mountain obscuration along the Continental Divide and near the central island ranges this evening into tonight, primarily VFR conditions are expected. - RCG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 23 59 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 17 54 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 24 59 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 20 59 29 68 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 11 53 19 59 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 21 61 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 18 55 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 19 52 34 61 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.