textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak system brings mainly mountain snow Wednesday.

- Mild temperatures and breezy winds at times will be the main theme of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1247 PM MST Tue Jan 27 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

High amplitude ridging ahead of an approaching trough near the Pacific coast has resulted in largely clear skies today across the region. We quickly transition away from this as the troughing moves inland across the west heading into Wednesday. A period of mainly mountain precipitation will develop through the day Wednesday, impacting mainly Central and Southwest Montana. A few areas at lower elevations, including Bozeman, look to see brief snow as this system passes Wednesday, otherwise the main impact at lower elevations looks to be ample cloud cover.

The troughing quickly moves eastward Wednesday night as upper level ridging builds back in across the west. Temperatures continue to trend further above average late week and into the weekend as ridging largely persists. The one fly in the ointment for the late week looks to be late Friday into Saturday as a system cuts through the upper level ridge. Gusty winds looks to be the main concern with this system, largely confined to areas along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. The probability for mountain snow closely follows the north/south positioning of this system as it moves through. A further south system would allow for at least some mountain precipitation near the Canadian border, while a further north solution would largely be dry.

As quickly as this system moves through into Saturday, the upper level ridge takes back hold, largely persisting through the following week. While ensembles averages do strongly favor the persistent ridging, individual guidance members do show the opportunity for another brief system early next week. Overall, the main takeaway is for above average temperatures most days late weekend into next week, with most days looking dry. -AM

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow Wednesday:

The quick hitting nature of this system will limit the overall accumulation amounts. The only pass with a greater than 50% probability for an inch of snow is Kings Hill Pass (60%). Otherwise, remaining passes have a less than 30% probability to see an inch of snow.

Winds Fri into Sat:

The wave moving across the region does look to perk winds up a bit late Friday into Saturday. Latest forecast soundings leave a bit to be desired with respect to confidence for high wind criteria being met. The probability for a 50 mph gust in Cut Bank is roughly 40% over this timeframe. -AM

AVIATION

28/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday morning. Scattered to broken high clouds will be passing through the region this evening. Light mountain snow begins to move in Wednesday morning. There is a slight chance precipitation moves off of the mountains into the lower elevations, particularly at KEKS/KBZN. Snow will be light and brief if it does pass through. Though, I can't rule out brief MVFR conditons with snow. -Wilson

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 27 45 29 48 / 0 10 0 0 CTB 22 44 26 45 / 0 10 0 0 HLN 21 39 27 45 / 0 20 10 0 BZN 17 38 19 42 / 0 60 20 0 WYS 0 29 9 29 / 0 50 10 10 DLN 18 38 17 40 / 0 30 0 0 HVR 12 36 19 39 / 0 10 10 0 LWT 22 43 24 43 / 0 10 10 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.