textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of snow will be most impactful over and near the higher terrain of central and southwest this morning.

- Temperatures remain below the seasonal average through Friday, with additional periods of scattered to numerous snow shower activity over much of the forecast area.

- A building ridge of high pressure will bring warming and drying conditions this weekend into early next week, with another spring Pacific system moving for the second half of next week.

UPDATE

/Issued 324 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026/

Early morning update has been published, mainly to incorporate latest Hi-Res guidance to best capture snow that is developing along the cold front diving southeast across North Central and Central Montana. Additionally, low temperatures were lowered across portions of the Hi-Line where temperatures were already approaching forecasted lows, with colder air just upstream over Southern Alberta. As of right now high temperatures were left as is (not lowered) given uncertainty of how impactful the mid- April sun angle will be, considering the lack of snowfall across most areas, with diurnal heating. With that being said it is possible that forecasted temperatures could be 5 to 10 degrees too warm throughout the day. - Moldan

DISCUSSION

/Issued 324 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

An upper level trough continues to deepen over the Great Basin, bringing widespread snow showers across North-central, Central and Southwestern Montana today. Snow showers will be particularly prevalent in Southwest Montana, with isolated snow showers across North-Central Montana. The earlier passage of a cold front and northerly flow aloft will keep temperatures well below seasonal average, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. A cold upper level low will move across the Hi-Line today, with high winds aloft wrapping around it. This will bring breezy to gusty northwesterly winds to North-Central Montana this morning through the afternoon, before they dissipate in the evening.

On Friday, North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana remain under the influence of the upper level trough. This will cause temperatures to remain on the chillier side with lows in the teens and another round of snow showers Friday morning. As the trough moves to the east, an upper level ridge of high pressure to the west begins to build, allowing temperatures to warm in the afternoon and precipitation chances to decrease. The upper level ridge will move east over Montana on Saturday and Sunday, bringing milder and drier weather across the region. Early next week the mild conditions continue until troughing brings increased shower activity by the middle of next week. - Dzomba

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Periods of snow and snow showers through Friday...

Precipitation associated with the frontal boundary over the plains will move eastward with only scattered rain/snow showers lingering for the remainder of the morning. The colder air aloft near the trough axis is slightly disjointed from the peak stratiform snow, but it should arrive just in time to produce impactful snow to areas over and near the central and southwest mountain ranges through around mid- to late morning, especially for the Madison/Gallatin ranges and their north/northwesterly facing foothills. Slushy/snowy travel conditions look to impact the Bozeman and Ennis morning commutes, at least briefly due to this general 2 to 6 inch snowfall. Localized areas that receive the heaviest snowfall may even observe some isolated instances of power outages and or tree damage.

Snow becomes more showery in nature heading into the afternoon hours, though the higher terrain of Madison and Gallatin counties look to see lingering impacts through this evening. Despite the let up in accumulating snow impacts, a cold north to northwesterly flow will persist through Friday afternoon. The combination of the higher April sun angle quickly heating surfaces to the mid to upper 30s under the mid-level cold core around 2 standard deviations below climatology will encourage the development of locally heavy scattered to numerous snow showers. The latest hires guidance shows the plains getting the brunt of this activity, but all areas will see at least scattered snow showers. Impacts will be highly localized and brief, but will include sharp visibility reductions, gusty winds, and minor localized slushy roadway accumulations.

After a cold night tonight with lows mostly in the teens and even single digits over areas of snow cover, another shortwave will bring more scattered to numerous snow showers and even general areas of light snow. There is currently around a 50 to 70% chance for an inch snowfall or more for areas near and over the central and southwest mountain ranges. The timing looks to be in the late morning and afternoon hours, but winter weather products may be needed should this shift earlier during the colder portion of the morning. - RCG

AVIATION

16/12Z TAF Period

A spring storm will continue to bring low CIGS and reduced VIS to terminals across Southwest through North Central Montana. With respect to the terminals in Southwest Montana persistent snow at the KWYS, KEKS, and KBZN terminals will bring LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions through 15-18z Thursday, with conditions only improving to MVFR/low-VFR thereafter. Further north an area of snow will continue to impact the KGTF and KLWT terminals through 15z this morning before gradually dissipating; however, snow showers will re-develop during the late morning/afternoon hours and persist through the evening hours here and at the KCTB and KHLN terminals. Widespread mountain obscuration will continue through the day today. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 39 22 45 25 / 40 40 50 10 CTB 30 14 44 21 / 40 30 20 0 HLN 43 25 46 25 / 60 40 70 10 BZN 39 19 43 19 / 90 50 70 20 WYS 34 12 36 11 / 100 60 70 20 DLN 38 19 43 20 / 70 30 30 0 HVR 37 17 46 25 / 40 30 0 0 LWT 38 17 42 22 / 50 30 40 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-East Glacier Park Region-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Gallatin Valley-Madison River Valley.