textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon through next week except for the 4th of July.

- Temperatures will gradually warm up through this weekend and stay warm through early next week.

- It will be breezy across portions of North-central Montana for the 4th of July.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 257 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon an upper-level ridge slides slightly to the east and gives North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana southwest flow aloft. This will allow warm temperatures to continue with another day of showers and thunderstorms. On Friday the southwest flow transitions to more zonal (west to east) flow. This will keep temperatures status quo. Friday afternoon there will be isolated showers and thunderstorms. On Saturday an upper-level ridge builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow warm and mostly dry weather to form. On Saturday strong mid and low-level winds will bring breezy conditions to portions of North-central Montana. On Sunday an upper-level trough moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring another day of showers and thunderstorms to the area with warm temperatures.

On Monday there is an upper-level trough over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures for Monday with another day of showers and thunderstorms. On Tuesday an upper-level builds in briefly over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures with showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday an upper-level trough will move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures and showers and thunderstorms to the area. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

On Friday there is a 15 - 35% chance for thunderstorms across of Southwestern and Central south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor. On Sunday along and south of US Highway 87 between Great Falls and Havre and along south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor there is a 20 - 40% for thunderstorms. On Monday there is a 25 - 50% chance for thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.

On Saturday there is greater than a 60% chance for wind gusts of 25 mph or greater across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater. On Saturday and Sunday there is greater than a 50% chance for high temperatures of 85 degrees or greater across most of the plains of North-central Montana. On Sunday there is 50 - 70% chance for high temperatures of 85 degrees or greater across the valleys of Central and Southwestern Montana. -IG

AVIATION

03/00Z TAF Period

Showers the thunderstorms will continue over Southwest MT until around 02Z. VFR conditions will prevail during this TAF period, with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning tomorrow afternoon in Southwest and Central MT. -Dzomba

HYDROLOGY

A flood advisory will continue for recreation areas until further notice for the Many Glacier area in Glacier National Park, as flood waters slowly recede. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 52 80 52 85 / 0 10 10 0 CTB 49 75 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 52 79 52 84 / 0 30 10 0 BZN 48 78 49 84 / 10 20 20 0 WYS 38 74 40 79 / 20 10 10 0 DLN 46 77 47 84 / 0 10 10 0 HVR 51 82 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 48 76 49 84 / 10 50 20 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.