textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Today through Monday it will be cold with a warm up expected for the middle of next week.

- Today there will be isolated snow showers across North-central and Central Montana.

- On Sunday and Monday there will be primarily mountain snow.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview:

Today the upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Another upper-level shortwave will move over the area this morning. This combined with northwest flow aloft will bring isolated snow showers to North-central and Central Montana. Today it will remain well-below seasonal averages for temperatures. On Sunday the upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Due to the northwest flow aloft on Sunday it will remain well-below seasonal averages with isolated snow showers primarily in the mountains of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.

On Monday the upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana with an upper-level ridge approaching Montana. This will allow the area to be mostly dry with temperatures warming up slightly. However there will be snow in the mountains of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Tuesday northwest flow aloft remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep temperatures cool with mountain snow showers and isolated snow showers in lower-elevation upslope favored areas. Wednesday through Friday an upper-level ridge gradually moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to gradually warm up with mostly dry weather. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Today there is a 40 - 60% chance for 1 inch of snow or greater across the mountains of North-central Montana. There are low probabilities for impactful snow along the Hi-Line. The greatest risk for any impactful snow is in a snow shower in which there is low confidence. As a result, all of the Winter Weather Advisories except for the Sweet Grass Hills Advisory were cancelled. See the TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section details. Sunday through Monday there is a 50 - 70% chance for 4 inches of snow across the Little Belts and mountains of Southwestern Montana. Sunday through Monday there is a 15 - 30% chance for one inch of snow or greater for the lower-elevations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana along and south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor. -IG

AVIATION

25/12Z TAF Period

Scattered snow showers will impact portions of the CWA through the period. The snow showers will become more isolated after 18z. Some of the heavier snow showers could reduce visibility below 1 mile for a short time. It is likely the unsettled weather conditions will continue into Sunday as well. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times across the CWA through the period. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 41 23 39 24 / 20 20 50 30 CTB 37 19 35 16 / 30 20 30 10 HLN 43 25 42 25 / 30 30 50 30 BZN 46 23 44 25 / 20 20 50 50 WYS 41 19 44 21 / 20 20 70 60 DLN 47 24 47 27 / 10 10 40 50 HVR 38 20 41 20 / 20 10 10 10 LWT 38 20 37 21 / 20 20 70 50

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for Eastern Toole and Liberty.

Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine.