textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather persists through Saturday besides light mountain snow in Southwest Montana.

- Windy conditions along the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday through Sunday morning, resulting in an elevated grassland fire risk through Sunday.

- A weather system will bring rain/wet snow to lower elevations Monday, impacting the morning commute.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 428 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

The upper-level ridging continues through the rest of the day today before it flattens out Saturday. It will be another mild to warm afternoon, with afternoon highs in the low to upper 60s across the North-Central MT plains and into the mid 50s across the Southwest MT valleys. Saturday morning, a small, weak shortwave tracks south of I-90 which will bring light mountain snow (generally less than an inch). With that ridge flattening out Saturday and Sunday A strong mid level jet will move into the Rocky Mountain Front. A tightening pressure gradient, mountain wave activity, and lee troughing developing will help mix these strong winds down to the surface. The strongest period for winds look to be Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. The strong winds, mild, and drier conditions will bring another day of elevated grassland fire risk.

Sunday afternoon, an approaching small trough and a Pacific weather system will being to move into the region. This will bring widespread precipitation through Monday. Mild temperatures will start lower elevations out in rain, but a Pacific front and arctic front will transition rain to wet snow Monday morning. Small amounts of instability along the Pacific frontal passage will also bring a concern for convective snow bands/snow squalls, mainly in Southwest MT. Although this weather system will bring in cooler air, afternoon high temperatures will stay above average through next week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Winds Saturday and Sunday:

Ensembles are showing the decent probabilities for high winds along the Rocky Mountain Front, with up to a 70% chance for 75 mph wind gusts or greater along the foothills. Farther out towards Cut Bank, there's up to a 50% chance for 58 mph wind gusts or greater. Giving the more favorable synoptic set up with forecast soundings showing the potential for mountain wave activity Saturday night, the high wind watch remains in effect. I also added in the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front to the watch due to the reasons above.

Precipitation and Snow Sunday Through Monday:

There remains variability between ensembles and deterministic runs for the next incoming weather system. The Northern Continental Divide looks to get the most precipitation right now due to being in better position of the upper-level wave. The deterministic models have been up trending to be a little bit more snowier than the ensembles. There is a 30% chance for 9 inches of snow at Marias Pass base don ensembles. Right now with the variability, a Winter Storm Watch was held off but if ensemble support grows, then one may be needed down the line. Across lower elevations, variability in the low track causes some uncertainty. First is where that low tracks to create a better mesoscale band of wet snow along the northern edge of the low pressure system. This will dictate snowfall amounts across the North-Central MT plains. Ensembles shows light snow accumulations as of now, but recent deterministic runs suggests that band can produce at least a few inches of wet snow where that band sits.

Another thing to watch for Monday morning is that Pacific front bringing a convective snow band/snow squalls to Southwest MT. Stronger cooling at the mid levels will help quickly transition rain to snow along the front. Wet bulb temperatures dropping to below 0C behind the front will bring a slight concern for wet pavements to freeze. This happening Monday morning will impact the morning commute. -Wilson

AVIATION

07/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during this TAF Period. At the KEKS terminal there is a 15 - 25% chance for rain between 07/08Z and 07/12Z. By 07/18Z winds will increase at all but the KEKS, KBZN, and KHLN terminals. During the duration of this TAF Period there will be isolated instances of low-level wind shear and mountain wave turbulence across North-central Montana. -IG

FIRE WEATHER

The main concern from today through Sunday will be the gusty winds and low afternoon humidity over North Central MT. This will result in elevated fire concerns over grassy areas during the afternoon hours. For Saturday, dewpoints look to be slightly higher in the afternoon with moisture advection beginning for the next system. However, breezy to strong winds with minimum humidities dropping into the 20s will still create elevated grassland fire conditions along the I-15 corridor from Great Falls to Cut Bank. Brusda/Wilson

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 39 62 45 57 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 38 58 40 52 / 0 0 0 10 HLN 35 58 35 54 / 0 0 0 20 BZN 32 58 32 56 / 10 10 0 10 WYS 21 42 20 41 / 30 30 0 10 DLN 34 57 32 55 / 20 10 0 10 HVR 32 60 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 39 60 38 57 / 0 0 0 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.