textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds over the eastern portions of Blaine County tonight.

- Very little change to the daily afternoon temperatures over the next several days.

- A bit windy at times over the western portions of North Central MT through Friday.

- Daily chances for mostly light mountain rain or snow showers begins tomorrow afternoon.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: The main concern overnight will be the potential for low clouds/fog to move westward into Blaine County. Overall the weather system producing the low clouds/fog is sliding to the southeast, but the western edge continues to slide a bit west, clipping the eastern portions of Blaine County. That trend should continue through the overnight, with a small possibility of some freezing fog/mist in this area. Otherwise a fairly quiet night is expected elsewhere over the CWA.

For New Years Day, expect a chance for rain/snow showers to develop over far Southwest MT by late in the afternoon. Snow levels will be a bit high for this time of year, mostly above 5000 feet. The chance for precipitation increases on Thu night, and spreads further north into Central MT as well. However, the best chance for any precipitation will be in the mountains. This pattern of showers in the mountains and little/if any precipitation at lower elevations will then continue for the next several days. Precipitation amounts will be light though, with most areas receiving less than a tenth of an inch. Thus any mountain snowfall will also be light, with some mountain ranges getting about an inch of snow this weekend, then maybe another inch or two of snow next week.

In terms of temperatures, very little change in daily temperatures is expected from tomorrow through next week for most areas.

Do expect winds to increase a bit on Thursday and again on Friday over the western sections of North Central MT, as mid level winds are progged to be near 60 knots. However, the probability of mixing the stronger winds aloft down to the surface is low for the next few days. Brusda

AVIATION

31/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during the duration of this TAF Period except for at the KHVR terminal. Between 01/14Z and 01/18Z there is a 30% chance for fog to reduce visibility to at least MVFR levels at the KHVR terminal. During the majority of this TAF Period there will be isolated instances of mountain wave turbulence and low-level wind sheer across North-central Montana. -IG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 29 49 34 50 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 22 42 25 43 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 24 39 29 46 / 0 0 20 10 BZN 22 42 29 47 / 0 10 30 10 WYS 11 34 24 35 / 0 50 80 70 DLN 24 41 31 47 / 0 10 20 0 HVR 17 29 16 33 / 0 0 0 10 LWT 29 50 30 50 / 0 0 10 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.