textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmest day of the upcoming week is expected on Wednesday, with the potential for multiple locations to set record high temperatures.

- Strong and gusty southwest winds continue on Wednesday along the Rocky Mountain Front.

- Overall dry conditions expected through the weekend.

UPDATE

/Issued 747 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026/

Slight adjustments were made to the near-term forecast based on updated model guidance but no major changes were made to the going forecast. -thor

DISCUSSION

/Issued 747 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the pattern across the western 1/3rd of the CONUS and Canada through the weekend; with the ridge axis briefly sliding east over the Rockies through Wednesday ahead of shortwave moving over the top of the ridge in Northern Canada before shifting back west over the western seaboard by Wednesday night. At the surface surface troughing in lee of the Continental Divide will continue to support a moderate to strong surface pressure gradient along the Rocky Mountain Front, Island Ranges of Central Montana, and along the I-90 corridor in Southwest Montana through Thursday morning. This pressure gradient will drive strong and gusty south to west surface winds across these areas, with breezy conditions occurring elsewhere.

High temperatures look to peak on Wednesday as the ridge axis moves overheard, with temperatures 'cooling' but remaining well above normal for the remainder of the forecast period. Predominately dry conditions will occur through the weekend, with some mountain showers returning early next week along the Continental Divide. - Moldan

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Record High Temperatures on Wednesday...

Strong warm air advection beneath an anomalously strong upper level ridge, with H500 heights of 2 to nearly 3 standard deviations above normal, will help surface temperatures to surge into the mid-50s to mid-60s across lower elevations of Southwest through North Central Montana on Wednesday. Numerous locations have a greater than 50% chance of setting new record high temperatures on Wednesday, with locations near the surrounding terrain having the highest chances thanks to gusty downsloping winds.

Probability of | Current LOCATION New Record | Record High Cut Bank 90% of breaking 55 degrees Havre 13% of breaking 58 degrees Great Falls 92% of breaking 57 degrees Lewistown 58% of breaking 61 degrees Helena 42% of breaking 55 degrees Bozeman 52% of breaking 53 degrees Dillon 85% of breaking 49 degrees

Strong and Gusty Winds on Wednesday...

A moderate to strong pressure gradient orientated along the Rocky Mountain Front and Island Ranges of Central Montana combined with mid-level flow of between 35-50kts will help to support one more day of gusty southwest to west surface winds. NBM probabilities for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are in excess of an 80% chance along the Rocky Mountain Front out to the I-15 corridor across North Central Montana and between a 20-50% chance along the MT Hwy 200/US Hwy 87 corridor across Central Montana. The probability for gusts in excess of 60 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front out to Cut Bank generally ranges from a 40-80% chance, with less than a 5% chance along the MT Hwy 200/US Hwy 87 corridor. BUFKIT soundings at Cut Bank do support the potential for mountain wave enhanced wind speeds/gusts, but confidence in wind speeds/gusts exceeding high wind criteria is low given veering (indicative of warm air advection) winds with height. - Moldan

AVIATION

14/06Z TAF Period

Upper level ridging will keep VFR conditions in place across the region through the TAF period. Winds will be generally light across the region except along the Rocky Mountain Front and portions of central Montana with gusts up to 30kts possible at KGTF and up to 40kts at KCTB. -thor

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 38 62 31 44 / 0 0 10 0 CTB 37 63 31 41 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 32 52 27 46 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 29 52 22 48 / 0 0 10 0 WYS 10 38 4 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 28 51 26 49 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 33 53 27 41 / 0 0 10 0 LWT 35 59 31 43 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.