textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and mountain snow late tonight through tomorrow gradually changes over to snow on Thursday.

- Warmer and drier weather returns for the weekend as upper level ridging builds into the area.

- Cooler, potentially unsettled weather may return for the second half of next week.

UPDATE

/Issued 815 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026/ Updated forecast is out for this evening. Main change was to increase chances for rainfall this evening over North Central MT. Overall precipitation amounts will be light tonight. Also, the thunderstorms have generally ended in our CWA, so I also removed thunder for the rest of this evening.

The main storm system will move through the CWA from west to east on Thursday. Snowfall could be heavy at times over Central MT, especially in the mountains. Snow accumulations during the day will be tricky, as daytime heating will limit some of the accumulations on pavement surfaces.

Overall the current forecast is on track for Thursday, with no changes to any of the winter statements at this time. Brusda

DISCUSSION

/Issued 815 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Moisture will continue to work into the area from the southwest today as a dynamic springtime system pushes into the Northwestern US. As this system moves eastward and inland today, the isolated rain and mountain snow showers over SW MT early this afternoon will become more widespread and will push further north, bringing generally mountain snowfall with some areas of light valley rain to areas below 7,000 feet overnight tonight. Rain and mountain snow will progress further northward on Thursday, and a cold front coming in from the west will bring a rapid decrease in snow levels, resulting in most elevations mixing with and eventually changing over to all snow by late Thursday. Snow will taper off overnight Thursday and early Friday for most locations, but a few areas, particularly the north slopes of the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains, may see some snow continue into the morning hours on Friday.

Behind this system, upper level ridging will build back in across the Western US, which will bring about a return to warmer and drier weather through early next week. Models tend to agree that a cooler and more active weather pattern may emerge for the second half of next week, but details on that change are still uncertain at this time.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow and rain through Friday: Models continue to trend down with lower elevation snowfall with the snowfall over the next 48 hours as temperatures trend warmer. Models seem to be hinting at some banding/convective elements embedded within this system, which will likely make the higher precipitation amounts a bit more hit or miss. Models highlight the higher terrain areas with this uncertainty especially hard, with most elevations above 7,000 feet showing a half inch difference in liquid equivalent between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the forecast. This makes the forecast for the higher terrain a bit tricky, as how exactly the storm tracks will have especially high impacts for our higher terrain areas. The Little Belts will be especially tricky, as snowfall totals over the higher terrain may depend on how much upslope snow falls late Thursday night and early Friday. Ludwig

AVIATION

02/06Z TAF Period

Initial concern this TAF period will be for areas of rain across the region through the overnight. Additional precipitation develops Thursday morning ahead of and behind a cold front moving across the region late Thursday morning and early afternoon. Lower elevation precipitation begins as rain in most areas, but transitions to snow as cooler air works in behind the front by Thursday evening. Mountains will be obscured this TAF period. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 35 45 31 48 / 70 90 90 50 CTB 31 39 25 49 / 70 90 50 0 HLN 34 44 29 49 / 70 90 90 40 BZN 34 47 27 48 / 70 90 90 60 WYS 30 39 21 42 / 90 90 90 70 DLN 34 44 27 49 / 60 90 50 10 HVR 31 45 28 46 / 30 80 90 30 LWT 31 49 26 40 / 30 80 100 70

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for East Glacier Park Region-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains- Northwest Beaverhead County-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains- Little Belt and Highwood Mountains.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for Cascade County below 5000ft-Fergus County below 4500ft- Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Snowy and Judith Mountains.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains.