textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds are expected Wednesday along the Continental Divide and portions of Central and Southwest Montana.

- Potential for convective snow showers and snow squalls on Wednesday morning across Southwest Montana.

- Another round of strong winds is expected across Central and North-Central Montana Thursday through Friday morning.

UPDATE

Current forecast remains on track for this evening. Light snow continues over the Continental Divide this evening. Overnight, a cold front will help expand light snow farther east across Central MT. This will push southwards throughout Wednesday morning. There is a slight chance for this front to produce moderate to heavy snow showers with it. -Wilson

DISCUSSION

/Issued 440 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

A series of disturbances moving along northwesterly flow aloft will bring a period of unsettled weather and strong winds across the region. A cold front moving through Wednesday morning will mix down the stronger winds to the surface and create the potential for convective snow showers and snow squalls, especially across southwest Montana. On Thursday through Friday another wave dips down across Montana bringing another round of strong winds for central and north-central Montana. With another chance for precipitation for north-central Montana on Friday. Behind this wave, northwesterly flow will continue with temperatures generally expected to remain warm across the region with daily chances for isolated precipitation along the mountains.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

High Winds and Snow Wednesday:

Between the advancing cold front and the mid-level jet expected to set up over the region, there is very high confidence in high winds along the Continental Divide and across portions of central and southwest Montana throughout the day on Wednesday. Winds will initially pick up along the Rocky Mountain Front and slowly spread south as the cold front advances. During this time, wind gusts up to 85 mph are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front and up to 70 mph for portions of central and southwest Montana highlighted in a High Wind Warning. Strong winds will continue through the day and start to wane heading into the evening/overnight hours before another wave moves through Thursday bringing even stronger winds across central and north-central Montana.

An additional concern on Wednesday will be the potential for convective snow showers and snow squalls through the morning as the cold front progresses to the south. The overall likelihood a snow squall will develop at any given point Wednesday morning sits at around 30% with increasing confidence in both the synoptic set up as well as what the models have been showing. The main uncertainty lies in when exactly a snow squall might develop and how quickly it will progress across southwest Montana. Based on the latest model guidance, the highest chance is between 4 AM and 12 PM which includes potential snow squall development and progression through the region. Ultimately this is a scenario of relatively low probability but high potential impact as there are concerns convective snow showers could detrimentally impact the Wednesday morning commute.

In terms of general snowfall amounts along the Continental Divide and the mountains of central and southwest Montana, QPF did increase with this forecast package. But despite the higher forecasted snowfall amounts, there is some hesitancy to jump straight to a Winter Weather Advisory. The current thinking is that most of the impactful snow will occur in a very short time period as a result of any convective snow showers/snow squalls that might develop. In this case, these impacts will be better managed with short-fused products that are issued at the time of occurrence. Should future model runs trend more towards a longer- duration snow event then an advisory may be warranted. But for now, the snowfall amounts should be taken with a grain of salt as they will be heavily reliant on how the convective snow pans out. The good news is once the cold front pushes through by late morning, the threat for impactful snow drops significantly. So the main concern will be before noon with afternoon concerns shifting solely to impacts from the strong winds.

High Winds Thursday/Friday:

Confidence continues to increase in widespread high winds across north-central and central Montana on Thursday and Friday. This event is expected to be stronger with potentially greater impacts from wind alone compared to Wednesday.

There is still some remaining uncertainty with the end timing of this wind event on Friday. Additionally, there are increasing probabilities for stronger wind gusts along the Hi-Line including Liberty and Hill counties. With the probability of wind gusts exceeding 55 mph sitting at around 50% there is enough confidence to add them to the watch but not quite enough confidence to justify adding them into the warning. Given these two moving pieces, the decision was made to keep the Thursday/Friday portion of the event as a watch for now. Later model runs will help confirm or deny the exact timing and whether or not additional zones will needed.

As expected, the strongest winds will be along the Rocky Mountain Front where gusts up to 90 mph are possible. There are high end gusts up to 100 mph possible on Thursday but those will be more isolated instances that are confined to wind-prone areas. Additionally, the 90th percentile winds show the potential for 80 mph wind gusts in the Helena Valley as well as the lower elevations of Judith Basin county. While this is not the generally expected wind gust for these locations, it is worth mentioning that it is well within the range of possibilities that a stray 80 mph gust could occur outside the immediate Rocky Mountain Front area. The main concern through early Friday morning will be impacts to those traveling, particularly high-profile vehicles and those towing trailers. If you can delay travel to another day, it is strongly recommended that you do in order to prevent a possible blow-over.

Winds will gradually taper off heading into Friday afternoon with the standard 20-30 mph gusts returning through early next week. Previous model runs had suggested at a cooler pattern setting up but the latest model guidance has flipped back towards a warmer pattern returning after a brief cool-down on Saturday. A lot of uncertainty remains for how the weekend will set up but at least, for now, it is not expected to be as windy as the middle of this week. -thor

AVIATION

25/00Z TAF Period

Main concern will be increasing chances for rain/snow after 06z Wed, with most of the precipitation falling south of a line from Helena to Lewistown. Scattered snow showers could be convective on Wed morning, producing a bit lower visibility than currently forecast in the TAF, along with some convective wind gusts. Otherwise, strong west winds develop on Wed afternoon over the western portions of North Central MT. The strong winds are likely to continue into Thu as well. Mountains/passes will be obscured through at least 18z over Central/Southwest MT. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 29 50 34 51 / 20 10 0 0 CTB 24 43 30 45 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 30 46 28 50 / 60 30 0 0 BZN 30 48 22 50 / 70 60 0 0 WYS 27 39 12 34 / 70 80 10 0 DLN 32 46 22 47 / 40 50 0 0 HVR 19 47 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 27 45 28 48 / 50 10 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 11 PM MST Wednesday for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Madison River Valley-Meagher County Valleys-Missouri Headwaters-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Hill County- Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northern Blaine County-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and Central Chouteau County.