textproduct: Great Falls
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Expect increasing clouds today, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms by this evening over Southwest MT.
- Generally dry conditions are expected for most areas from Monday through next weekend.
- Afternoon temperatures will generally be above normal Monday through Friday.
DISCUSSION
- Meteorological Overview: A westerly flow aloft is trying to develop over Montana today. A weak upper level disturbance will also move through Southwest MT this evening. This will result in a small chance for a shower/thunderstorm over Southwest MT tonight into Monday. Any precipitation should be light.
With generally a westerly flow aloft this week, afternoon temperatures will likely above normal Mon thru Fri across much of the area. Additionally, expect winds to increase a bit as well for Tue into Wed, creating elevated fire weather conditions over North Central MT.
For next weekend, both the GFS/EC have a open upper level trof moving through the CWA. The GFS has backed off on precipitation next weekend as well. Thus there is only about a 20 percent chance for a passing shower over the central and northern portions of the CWA next weekend.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The main concern this week will be the increased winds once again for Tue/Wed. Right now there is only about a 40 percent chance of wind gusts reaching high wind warning criteria on Tue evening. Thus no high wind statement will be issued at this time.
Additionally, the increased wind gusts Tue, combined with low humidity will allow for elevated fire weather conditions. Brusda
AVIATION
27/12z TAF Period.
Expect increasing clouds this morning, with a chance for a shower/thunderstorm by late this afternoon over Southwest MT. The precipitation exits Southwest MT by Monday afternoon. Some mountains/passes could be obscured at times by clouds/precipitation. Brusda
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 63 46 72 45 / 0 10 0 0 CTB 58 37 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 64 42 71 41 / 10 20 0 0 BZN 64 38 67 37 / 0 10 0 0 WYS 65 37 59 28 / 10 40 60 10 DLN 64 40 67 36 / 10 10 0 0 HVR 67 41 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 63 42 69 41 / 10 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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