textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and cooler conditions expected the next several days.

- The next chance for precipitation arrives on Monday evening.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1216 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026/

- Meteorological Overview: The storm system that produced the widespread rain/snow on Friday has exited the area already this morning. In its wake, mainly some low clouds, along with patchy fog, but much cooler temperatures have also moved into the region. The fog should thin out by late morning, otherwise expect below normal temperatures this afternoon.

The below normal temperatures are likely to last most of the week for much of the region.

The next weather system arrives Monday night into Tuesday, as an upper level low approaches from the west. At this time, precipitation amounts look to be a bit lighter than this past weather system.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The main concern with the next weather system will once again be when does the rain change to snow. The airmass will be cooler, so it is likely that snow levels will start out quite a bit lower. The main question is will the rain to change all the way down to plains/valley floors? The forecast models vary, with some models keeping the snow level above 4500 feet, thus rain falling at the lowest elevations. Also, precipitation amounts should be lighter with this system, thus right now it looks like the highest potential for any winter statements will mainly be in the mountain areas south of I-90 from Butte to Bozeman. Brusda

AVIATION

24/18Z TAF Period

Patchy fog and LIFR cigs at KBZN continue to be the primary concern this afternoon. KBZN is forecast to clear up by 24/20Z, but the latest satellite trends indicate little change coverage over the last hour. This will be evaluated again shortly for the possibility extending the degraded conditions deeper into the afternoon and even into tonight. Additionally, hires guidance suggests that there will be patchy fog in the KBZN area again by Sunday morning, but there's low confidence in regards to coverage and impacts.

Low level easterly flow develops over central and north- central MT and brings low stratus, mountain obscuration, and patchy fog tonight into Sunday morning. This will be most pronounced along the Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide where IFR/MVFR conditions will be present. - RCG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 24 38 22 41 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 22 41 20 43 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 23 38 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 20 45 18 50 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 15 51 17 48 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 24 43 25 51 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 21 46 22 50 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 20 40 23 48 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.