textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow showers, with an isolated thunderstorm or two, will continue throughout the day on Wednesday.

- Below average temperatures continue through Wednesday, with a moderating trending on Thursday before values climb well above average on Friday.

- Above average temperatures and chances for precipitation this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview:

Moist, unstable, northwest flow aloft continues to support rain/snow shower chances across the region today, with even an isolated thunderstorm or two mainly over southwest MT. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal under this northwesterly flow. Breezy northerly winds will increase in the afternoon due to mixing and shower activity, but will quickly decrease as the afternoon turns to evening and diurnal heating subsides. Light overnight winds and recent precipitation may support patchy fog development, especially within the high valleys of Central and Southwest Montana, tonight and then again Wednesday night.

On Thursday, weak upper level ridging begins to build to the west, allowing for moderating temperatures and dry conditions across Southwest, Central and North-Central MT. Due to shortwave troughing in the Pacific Northwest, the ridge begins to flatten over western MT on Friday, allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s and mid 70s across many locations. Above normal temperatures persist across the Northern Rockies through the upcoming weekend and first half of the upcoming work week as quasi-northwest flow aloft redevelops, with this flow regime once again supporting daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. - Moldan and Dzomba

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Chances of precipitation today remain low, with only about a 25 percent chance of 0.10 inches, due to scattered rain shower activity. The mountains will see slightly higher chances, about a 35 percent for 0.10 inches. -Dzomba

AVIATION

29/06Z TAF Period

There will be a few passing light rain/snow shower over the next few hours, otherwise, some patchy fog could affect mostly portions of Southwest MT through 15z. Late Wed morning through Wed evening, expect another chance for scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity looks to isolated at this time to include at terminal sites. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times across the CWA by passing clouds/showers. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 32 56 31 62 / 20 20 0 0 CTB 30 56 29 64 / 20 20 0 0 HLN 33 56 31 62 / 30 40 10 0 BZN 29 55 27 59 / 40 50 20 0 WYS 22 47 20 52 / 30 70 30 10 DLN 31 55 30 59 / 20 50 20 0 HVR 29 58 29 65 / 10 20 0 0 LWT 28 52 27 56 / 40 30 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.