textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Not quite as windy today, but still mild.

- Mild temperatures continue on Wednesday, before a bit cooler air returns starting on Thursday.

- Little to no precipitation expected over the next week or so.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: A significant chinook arch is residing over Montana this morning, as a strong upper level ridge builds over the entire Pacific Northwest. This ridge is allowing for mild January air to move over the CWA, with near record highs continuing today and again on Wednesday.

The flow aloft is currently out of the northwest over Central MT. This has resulted in some radar returns, however any precipitation that is hitting the ground is likely mostly rain and very light. Overall, any precipitation should diminish by early this afternoon.

Gusty winds do continue to affect portions of North Central MT this morning. There is a small chance a few gusts could reach warning criteria before 8 AM along the Rocky Mountain Front to as far east as the Cut Bank area. Thus the high wind warning will continue for now, but could be cancelled early.

After today, really no precipitation is expected until the middle of next week. There was the potential for some precipitation on Thursday per the GFS model, but overall that probability has been decreasing daily, and thus the dry forecast.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Overall, the main weather highlight for the next few days will be the potential for near record high temperatures today and again on Wednesday. There continues to be about an 80 percent for record high temperatures today and a 90 percent chance on Wednesday. Cooler air returns on Thursday, ending that potential for record high temperatures for most areas to continue. Brusda

AVIATION

13/12Z TAF Period

Mid/high level clouds will reside over the CWA through the period, with a significant chinook arch over the Northern Rockies. Radar is showing some returns, but most of the precipitation is aloft. Otherwise, expect breezy surface winds once again today, but not quite as strong as Monday. Brusda

FIRE WEATHER

Main concern today will be grassy areas over North Central MT. Even though winds overall will not be quite as strong as yesterday, it will still be windy at times. The windy conditions combined with humidity in the 20s and 30s could make any fire starts in grassy a bit difficult to contain. Humidity will remain low through Wednesday, before a bit cooler air and higher humidity return on Thursday. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 59 37 61 33 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 53 35 54 29 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 57 32 59 28 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 57 28 59 24 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 33 9 34 4 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 52 28 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 57 30 59 27 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 56 35 57 32 / 40 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains.