textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It will warm up to well-above seasonal averages today and Saturday.

- It will be windy across the Rocky Mountain Front today and across North-central Montana on Saturday.

- It will be mostly dry through Monday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 503 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Today an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This brings warm temperatures and dry weather to the area today. Today temperatures will be well above seasonal averages. Today the pressure gradient increases which will bring windy conditons primarily just to the Rocky Mountain Front. On Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry temperatures to the area on Saturday. On Saturday the low-level and mid-level winds increase combined with the upper-level ridge flattening. This will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I- 15.

On Sunday there will be zonal flow (west-east) over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures with mostly dry weather. On Monday an upper-level ridge briefly builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with mostly dry weather. On Tuesday the upper-level ridge remains over Montana this will keep warm and dry weather for North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday there will be a series of weak troughs that pass through Montana. This will keep warm and mostly dry weather for North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Wednesday and Thursday. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

On Saturday there is a 40 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the plains west of I-15. On Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 50 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 70 mph or greater. Along the higher peaks of the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. Additionally the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) has a standardized anomaly greater than 3 for 700 mb winds Saturday afternoon across the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. Models continue to show in excess of 60 to 70 kt 700 mb winds over the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15 Saturday afternoon and evening. As a result a High Wind Watch remains in effect for the plains west of I-15 and the Rocky Mountain Front from 9AM Saturday through 12AM Sunday. On Saturday across the rest of North-central Montana there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater. For winds across the Hi-Line east of I-15 there is currently a low chance to reach and/or exceed high wind criteria but if the strong 700 mb winds move east faster than models are currently depicting a High Wind Watch could be needed for the Hi- Line east of I-15. -IG

AVIATION

16/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty south/southwesterly winds are expected to continue at KGTF through the rest of the afternoon before tapering off slightly overnight and picking up again Saturday morning as a broader spread of gusty winds fills in across North-Central and Central Montana as well as the Madison Valley (KEKS). The strongest winds will be along the Rocky Mountain Front with gusts up to 55kts possible at KCTB and up to 70kts right along the mountains.

Further across the Hi-Line, including KHVR, surface winds will be gusty but a shallow inversion is expected to keep the high winds just above the surface which may lead to instances of LLWS through Saturday evening. Should these stronger winds be able to mix down to the surface, expect gusty winds up to 50kts at KHVR. But currently the probability of occurrence is at 20%. -thor

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 68 45 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 69 43 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 63 33 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 61 29 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 57 20 58 21 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 61 30 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 68 41 76 37 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 69 44 75 39 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front.