textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended period of warmth and dryness continues through much of the upcoming week with temperatures peaking on Monday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns develop early this week with breezy to locally windy conditions across portions of north-central MT Monday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 322 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Dry and mild conditions persist across the Northern Rockies and MT through much of the upcoming work week as large scale ridging remains centered across the SW US with the ridge flattening some after Monday. The warmest daytime temperatures are on track for Monday as increased mid-level westerly flow over the flattening ridge provides some additional warming to the lee of the Rockies. This also results in increased surface winds on Monday, particularly across north-central MT where gusts in excess of 30 mph are likely in areas adjacent to the Rockies and central MT mountains. After peaking around 20 degrees above seasonal averages Monday with a few locations potentially approaching daily records, temperatures are likely to remain 10-15 degrees above average through Friday.

A significant change in the weather is appearing more likely next weekend with increasing support from longer range model ensembles for upper level troughing across the NW US and at least a modest drop in temperatures and increased risk for precipitation. The shift in the pattern is the downstream result of complicated interactions that occur across northwest Pacific this week between a Typhoon and cold upper level system moving out of NE Asia. This contributes to considerable uncertainty and likely fluctuations in the forecast with more details to come as the week progresses.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The main weather hazard to watch over the coming days will be elevated fire weather concerns developing Monday as anomalously warm afternoon temperatures combine with low afternoon humidity and breezy to locally windy conditions. This is most pronounced across areas areas from the east slopes of the Rocky Mtn Front eastward across areas adjacent to the central MT mountains where wind gusts in excess of 30-35 mph are most likely. While fuels are not currently critical, these conditions will begin a trend toward higher fire danger in the upcoming week. Hoenisch

AVIATION

04/12Z TAF Period.

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period under mainly clear skies and dry conditions. Surface winds remain light today with south to south winds beginning to increase at some locations tonight. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 79 53 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 73 47 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 78 48 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 78 45 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 74 34 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 80 45 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 75 45 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 79 53 83 50 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES