textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Today it will be dry with mountain snow and isolated lower- elevation rain/snow returning for the weekend.

- Temperatures will remain well-above seasonal averages through Monday.

- Another system will bring widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 1153 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Today an upper-level ridge is over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep warm (well-above seasonal averages) and dry temperatures for the area. On Saturday the upper- level ridge begins to flatten with an upper-level shortwave moving over the area. Then southwest flow aloft begins to develop Saturday afternoon/evening. This will bring mountain snow to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Saturday isolated lower- elevation locations will see a rain/snow mix. On Saturday temperatures will be well-above seasonal averages. On Sunday the upper-level ridge with southwest flow aloft remains over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will continue to allow Pacific moisture to stream into the area and bring mountain snow with isolated lower-elevation locations seeing a rain/snow mix. On Sunday temperatures will remain well above seasonal averages.

On Monday an upper-level trough begins to make its way towards Montana. This will bring strong winds to north-south orientated valleys in Southwestern Montana. On Monday snow will linger in the mountains of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Monday due to southwest flow aloft it will be well-above seasonal averages for temperatures. Tuesday through Thursday an upper- level trough will move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring widespread snowfall and cooler temperatures to the area for Tuesday through Thursday. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

This morning there is greater than an 80% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front. For snow Saturday through Monday there is a 45 - 75% chance for 2 inches of snow or greater across the mountains of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.

For the system that will move through during the middle of next week there is still some uncertainty but there is decent confidence that there will be at least widespread light snow with cooler temperatures across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. For Tuesday through Thursday there is greater than a 50% chance for 1 inch of snowfall or greater across most lower-elevation locations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. For Tuesday through Thursday there is greater than a 50% chance for 4 inches of snow or greater across the mountains of North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG

AVIATION

13/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the duration of the 1306/1406 TAF period, but low clouds along the Idaho/Montana border will obscure clouds for much of the next 24 hours. Additionally, instance of mountain wave turbulence can not be ruled out immediately downwind of the Continental Divide over the plains of Central and North Central Montana. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 33 52 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 27 48 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 24 47 26 50 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 20 46 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 15 35 17 36 / 0 10 0 10 DLN 21 46 25 49 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 27 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 16 46 26 49 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.