textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Quieter weather conditions are expected today, before it turns windy and warmer starting Monday.

- Strong winds are possible daily from Monday through Friday over portions of North Central MT.

- Near record high temperatures are possible later this week.

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview: The atmospheric river of precipitation that has affected the CWA for the past 2 days is exiting the area this morning. Other than a passing snow shower/flurry early this morning, the precipitation will end. Expect a quieter day today, with mainly some passing clouds later this morning/this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will remain cool today, especially over the fresh snow cover areas of Central/North Central MT.

Tonight, warm air advection develops over the CWA, resulting in increased chances for light snow by Monday morning. Most of the snow accumulations will be in the mountains, where 4 to 8 inches will be possible over the Big Belt Mountains and Gallatin Mountain ranges. With most of the higher snow accumulations falling above 5000 feet, no advisory will be issued at this time.

The next concern will be the increasing winds on Monday. There is a concern for blowing snow over much of North Central/Central MT. It will just depend on how quickly we warm before the winds increase, but there is still the potential that a blowing snow advisory might be needed for a portion of the CWA on Monday.

By Monday afternoon, a strong westerly flow aloft will develop over North Central MT. This will allow for strong winds to develop over the Rocky Mountain Front and the Cut Bank area. These strong winds spread over a portion of the Plains of North Central MT Monday night. The strong winds will continue into Tuesday, before diminishing a bit Tuesday evening. Thus a high wind watch has been issued for a portion of North Central MT for this event.

Periods of strong winds are expected from Wednesday through Friday along the Rocky Mountain Front and in the Cut Bank area. Additional high wind statements are likely for later this week as well.

Along with the windy conditions, expect mild spring like air to move into the CWA as well. Afternoon temperatures from Wed thru next Sat should be well above normal. Other than some precipitation along the Rocky Mountain front, not much precipitation is expected elsewhere from Wed thru next Sat.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

There is an 80 percent chance for strong winds on Monday in the watch area, and that probability goes to 90 percent for Tuesday. There continues to be near an 80 percent chance for strong winds for Wednesday and Thursday along the Rocky Mountain Front and in the Cut Bank area, thus additional high wind statements are likely.

There is a concern that temperatures will be slow to warm on Monday, and winds will increase before the snow crusts over. Thus there is the potential that blowing snow statements might be needed for a portion of North Central MT. Brusda

AVIATION

15/12Z TAF Period

Any remaining light snow/flurries will affect the eastern/southern portions of the CWA through by 14z. Expect some clearing late morning/early afternoon, but warm air advection will lead to increasing clouds and light snow developing by 06z Mon. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times across the CWA. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 26 16 47 42 / 0 20 30 30 CTB 28 14 46 39 / 0 10 20 10 HLN 34 23 50 40 / 0 30 60 40 BZN 35 20 52 37 / 10 30 60 50 WYS 30 16 41 27 / 10 40 70 60 DLN 37 27 56 38 / 0 10 10 10 HVR 27 12 45 35 / 0 0 10 10 LWT 24 10 47 38 / 0 10 20 20

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western and Central Chouteau County.