textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- It will be windy and mostly dry on Sunday across North-central Montana.

- Through the upcoming work week it will be warm, dry, and breezy with strong winds returning to North-central Montana on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 502 PM MST Sat Nov 7 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon an upper-level ridge strengthens over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. As it result it will be warm and dry this afternoon. On Sunday the upper-level ridge breaks down. This combined with strong low-level and mid-level winds will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana. The strongest winds will be along the Rocky Mountain Front. On Sunday it will be dry outside of a few isolated showers along the Rocky Mountain Front.

On Monday an upper-level ridge moves back over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will continue the warm and dry conditions for the area. On Tuesday an upper-level shortwave trough moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with a strong pressure gradient and strong low-level winds will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. Wednesday through Friday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central Montana. This will keep warm and dry weather for the area Wednesday through Friday. Wednesday through Friday it will also be breezy across North- central Montana. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

On Sunday along the Hi-line east of I-15 and in the lower-elevations of Cascade and Judith Basin County there is a 20 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. On Sunday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 60 - 90% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. On Sunday across the plains west of I-15 there is a 40 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 65 mph or greater. As a result during the day on Sunday a High Wind Warning is in effect for the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. A High Wind Watch remains in effect during the day on Sunday for the Hi-Line east of I-15 through Hill County and the lower-elevations of Cascade and Judith Basin County.

On Tuesday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 40 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 70 mph or greater. On Tuesday along the plains west of I-15 there is a 40 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. On Tuesday across the lower-elevations of Cascade and Judith Basin Counties there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. -IG

AVIATION

08/06Z TAF Period

Another round of very strong and gusty winds across central and north central MT including KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, and KLWT. For KCTB and KHVR, there will be much stronger winds aloft of 50-60 KT at and above 1500 FT AGL with the strongest probability for LLWS between 08/12Z to 08/16Z. Probability for LLWS over KGTF and KLWT is lower however if sufficient decoupling of the lower atmosphere occurs with surface winds going below 10 KTS then LLWS is likely. Some gusty winds out of the southwest are expected for KEKS, KBZN, KWYS, and KHLN however only up to 25 KT to 30 KT.

VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the period. Primary hazards will be LLWS and mountain wave turbulence over and up to 50 NM downrange of the Rocky Mountain Front. - Akins

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 44 64 41 56 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 37 55 33 51 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 36 62 35 54 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 32 60 33 54 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 23 48 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 31 58 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 37 66 35 53 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 40 64 37 55 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below 5000ft- Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County- Western and Central Chouteau County.