textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds will diminish this evening, but redevelop on Thursday morning over North Central MT.

- Light snow and colder temperatures Fri into Sat over North Central MT, while it remains dry and mild over Southwest MT.

- Above average temperatures return for all areas next week.

UPDATE

845 PM update...The first high wind event is over. The 2nd is beginning. Winds have increased over Judith Basin County, thus I started the warning for zone 313 now. I also added the remaining 3 zones over North Central MT. There is enough mid level winds that could mix down on the 00z run this evening of the NAM and HRRR ensemble to add the remaining zones. The next concern after the wind will be the colder air/light snow Friday afternoon into Saturday over North Central MT. Southwest MT is likely to remain mostly dry/mild this weekend. The rest of the forecast will be updated overnight. Brusda

545 PM Update...Updated forecast this evening to cancel the 1st high wind warning for much of the area. It remains in place over the Northern Rockies and northern adjacent Plains, otherwise, the high wind warning for today has been cancelled.

No changes to the 2nd high wind event that begins at Midnight tonight.

Temperatures for tonight look on track, no changes. Brusda

DISCUSSION

/Issued 300 PM MST Wed Feb 25 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Gusty winds continue across Central and Southwestern Montana this afternoon as the first in a series of mid and upper level jet streaks move across the area. Winds have been quite gusty along the Rocky Mountain Front so far today, with gusts to 65 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front and across some of the wind prone valleys of Southwestern Montana. Winds should subside a bit this evening with the ending of daytime mixing and as winds aloft weaken, but winds will ramp back up again late tonight and early tomorrow as our next and stronger mid/upper level jet streak moves overhead. As this happens, expect winds to pick back up, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front and across the Plains where gusts in excess of 60 mph (and gusts over 80-90+ mph along the Rocky Mountain Front) are expected.

Winds decrease from north to south Friday as a cold front sinks across the plains and the colder air settles in. As the winds start to rise over and above the colder air at the surface, an area of light to moderate snowfall will likely develop along a line that will extend north and east of a Cut Bank to Great Falls to Lewistown. Snowfall amounts will generally be on the lighter side (under 3 inches), but higher amounts will be possible in Glacier National Park and in the Bears Paw Mountains.

After snow tapers off on Saturday, expect the remainder of the weekend to be dry, with slightly below average temperatures across the plains, but warmer than average temperatures across Southwestern Montana. These warmer temperatures will make their way back to the plains early next week as upper level ridging builds back into the area, which will keep us warm and tranquil next week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Winds through Friday morning: Winds will continue to be gusty through the remainder of the afternoon across Central and Southwestern Montana, but winds should weaken a bit this evening as winds aloft weaken for most of us. However, this lull in the winds will not last long, as our next surge in mid and upper level winds arrives before sunrise Thursday, which will kick off our next round of winds. This second round of winds will be stronger than todays with wind gusts in excess of 80 to 100 mph along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front, and gusts to 60 or 70 mph across the remainder of the plains in the High Wind Warning for tomorrow. I can't rule out a few stronger gusts away from the Rocky Mountain Front as well, particularly if a mountain wave forms and breaks away from the terrain, but right now any strong mountain waves should remain close to the Rocky Mountain Front.

Snow Friday night/Saturday and temperatures: Right now models are showing a round of overrunning snowfall that should affect North Central Montana Friday into Saturday. While most of the affected areas should see light snowfall, I cant rule out some brief heavier bursts that could produce some localized amounts in excess of 4 inches, especially if they are stationary. This snowfall and associated cloud cover should also prevent temperatures from falling as far as we initially thought earlier this week, and keep temperatures from falling past the teens or upper single digits. Ludwig

AVIATION

26/06Z TAF Period

Main concern through this period will be the periods of strong winds. Isolated stronger wind gusts expected through 15z Thu, before more widespread strong wind gusts develop during the afternoon hours on Thur over North Central MT. There might be some light showers along the divide over the Northern Rockies, but overall the chance for any precipitation is low until Friday afternoon. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 34 50 35 49 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 30 45 29 39 / 0 0 10 40 HLN 27 51 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 23 53 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 12 35 13 39 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 24 49 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 28 52 25 39 / 0 0 10 40 LWT 29 50 32 47 / 0 0 0 20

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 11 AM MST Friday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty- Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley- Hill County-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northern Blaine County-Northern High Plains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and Central Chouteau County.

High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.