textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures will persist through Sunday with today expected to be the warmest day of the week.

- Breezy conditions are expected across north-central Montana on Saturday and Sunday with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front.

- Cooler and wetter conditions return late Sunday into Monday.

UPDATE

A weak surface front brought a northerly wind shift to the plains earlier this afternoon/evening. Now winds are decoupling and temperatures have begun to drop a little faster than anticipated, especially along the Hi-Line. Radiational cooling was having a similar effect for some southwest valleys. Low temperatures and hourlies were adjusted per the emerging trends. Another concern is for patchy fog development late tonight and Friday morning, mostly over and near the Milk River Valley. RHs were raised and the mention of patchy fog was added for these areas. - RCG

DISCUSSION

/Issued 309 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Strong upper-level ridging will persist over the next couple days allowing for temperatures to remain well above normal across the region. The warmest temperatures are expected today with monthly temperature records in jeopardy of being broken for some climate sites. Additional daily records may be in jeopardy through Saturday.

By Saturday, an upper-level disturbance flattens out the ridge allowing for strong winds to develop across north-central Montana with the strongest winds expected along the Rocky Mountain Front.

A cold front moves through on Monday bringing a chance for more widespread precipitation across the region. Mountain snow with the potential for a rain/snow mix at lower elevations is possible although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to the exact track and snow levels.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Strong Winds Saturday/Sunday:

The upper level support is very good for the Rocky Mountain Front seeing gusts in excess of 60 mph. Additionally, gusts over 40 mph are possible along the Highway 200 corridor between Great Falls and Lewistown with the potential for some locally higher gusts in the gap wind areas near Geyser.

At this time, wind gusts are just below the criteria for a High Wind product and confidence in exceeding criteria is only at around 30%. That being said, with as strong as this wave may end up being, it would not be unexpected if 75 mph gusts were observed along the Rocky Mountain Front as well as a gust up to 60 mph along the gap wind area of Judith Basin county. With confidence sitting at less than 50%, no products will be issued at this time. But should future model updates increase confidence in higher wind gusts, a High Wind Watch may be necessary.

Precipitation Sunday/Monday:

The best confidence right now is for precipitation to start along the Continental Divide Saturday night into Sunday morning with some isolated snow showers at the highest elevations. By Sunday afternoon/evening, snow showers start to spread across the Divide and by Monday, more widespread precipitation is expected across the region. Snow above 6000 feet is nearly certain but below that there remains some uncertainty as to how low snow levels will get across our portion of Montana. Thus it is difficult to say with any level of confidence whether or not it will snow across the northern plains. Right now, higher confidence lies in a rain/snow mix at lower elevations with the highest chance for lower elevation snow along the valleys of southwest Montana. -thor

AVIATION

06/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail this TAF period under mostly clear skies and largely light winds. -AM

FIRE WEATHER

There is an elevated concern for fire weather across the northern plains through the weekend as temperature will remain well above normal and relative humidities as low as the teens are possible. Breezy conditions are expected on Saturday and Sunday with wind gusts up to 60 mph possible along the Rocky Mountain Front and widespread 30 to 40 mph wind gusts across the rest of the northern plains.

Once the cold front moves through, expect cooler and wetter conditions to return to the region through the middle of next week. -thor

CLIMATE

Numerous locations have the potential of setting new all time record high temperatures for the month of February this week. The table below reflects the current all time record high temperature for the month of February for select climate sites across the CWA.

LOCATION Cut Bank 71F set on February 27, 1992 Havre 74F set on February 27, 1992 Great Falls 70F set on February 27, 1992 and February 27, 1932 Lewistown 70F set on February 27, 1932 Helena 69F set on February 24, 1995 and February 27, 1932 Bozeman 66F set on February 24, 1995 Dillon 64F set on February 27, 1988 and February 28, 1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 27 64 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 24 61 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 26 57 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 23 58 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 8 47 18 42 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 29 59 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 22 52 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 30 63 38 60 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.