textproduct: Great Falls
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Seasonable temperatures today and tomorrow, with a brief warm up through this weekend.
- Generally dry through next week, with light rain showers dissipating this evening.
DISCUSSION
/Issued 1215 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026/
- Meteorological Overview:
Zonal flow aloft will continue throughout today, before weak ridging begins to build off to the west tomorrow. This will allow temperatures to remain seasonable today and tomorrow, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s across much of the CWA. Some areas north of the Hi-Line will see cooler highs in the mid 50s. Light rain showers will continue across Central/North-Central MT through this afternoon, dissipating as the evening approaches.
Friday presents a similar situation, with weak ridging aloft allowing temperatures to continue to warm to highs in the 70s. A weak shortwave will move through Saturday, causing a brief cooldown in temperatures, before stronger ridging aloft builds on Sunday. The upper level high pressure on Sunday and Monday will cause temperatures to rise, before an upper level trough moves in lowering temperatures back down to seasonably normal by the middle of next week.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The weather will be generally mild throughout the forecast period. However, there is the potential for fire weather concerns on Monday. High temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s, minimum RH values in the teens to mid 20s, and winds gusting 20-30 mph are expected. While at the moment nothing appears critical, we will be keeping an eye on how these conditions progress. -Dzomba
AVIATION
30/18Z TAF Period
Expect mid/high level clouds across the CWA through about 00z Thu, before clouds begin to thin out. A few light rain showers will fall this afternoon between Cut Bank and Havre. Winds will gradually lessen across the plains this afternoon, becoming light/nearly calm by 0z. Some patchy fog is possible across the valleys of SW MT, though I only had enough confidence to include it in the TAF of KWYS at this time. Ludwig/Brusda
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 42 63 42 73 / 20 0 10 0 CTB 36 58 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 39 68 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 37 68 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 30 65 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 39 71 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 35 63 34 70 / 0 10 0 0 LWT 39 62 39 72 / 20 20 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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