textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong thunderstorms possible on Wednesday. - Drier conditions after Wednesday. - Turning very warm towards the weekend.

DISCUSSION

An upper level shortwave moving through the area today brought a few showers and thunderstorms to the area overnight. While these showers and storms should dissipate and/or move eastward by sunrise, lingering instability and moisture this afternoon should allow for some storms to redevelop in the afternoon. While I cant rule out one or two stronger storms, widespread severe storms are not expected.

Our next weather maker will swing through the area on Wednesday as an upper level shortwave swings through Alberta. While the risk of an MCS-type setup appear to have diminished, this trough will still have plenty of instability to work with, along with some modest shear. With shear helping to organize the storms a bit, and a very deep mixed layer, I cant rule out some of the high based storms producing some larger hail and strong wind gusts, particularly along the plains areas east of Interstate 15. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a marginal risk for severe storms as well, so there is some agreement on the potential for stronger storms.

Beyond Wednesday, upper level ridging will quickly build and strengthen over the SW CONUS, which will result in a quite rapid increase temperatures across the region. Most areas will see temperatures soar into the mid to upper 90s over the weekend, with a few 100s possible as well depending on cloud cover. Temperatures will lower slightly early next week as a trough swings by to the north, but warm temperatures are likely to linger through most of next week as the ridge remains anchored to our south. Ludwig

AVIATION

07/06Z TAF Period

Initial concern will be for areas of showers and thunderstorms progressing northward into North-central Montana which look to last through mid-morning. Some MVFR ceilings look to accompany this rain, though there is uncertainty in its duration and extent. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms then looks to develop Tuesday afternoon in many areas. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 82 55 91 56 / 20 0 30 20 CTB 80 53 87 56 / 20 10 10 0 HLN 84 56 88 56 / 10 0 50 30 BZN 83 54 87 52 / 10 10 10 40 WYS 81 46 82 45 / 0 10 10 20 DLN 83 52 85 50 / 0 10 20 20 HVR 77 53 91 57 / 80 10 10 30 LWT 76 51 86 53 / 60 10 10 50

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.