textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather and a warmup in temperatures last through Sunday.

- A weather pattern change develops late Sunday for next week, bringing breezy, cooler, and wetter conditions.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 500 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Upper-level ridging will move in for the weekend, starting today. This will bring dry weather with warming temperatures through at least Sunday. This ridging is expected to break down heading into Monday as a mini shortwave trough begins to move through the region. Jet stream winds increases from this and as a result, breezy to gusty winds look to develop Monday, mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front and Southwest MT. A cold front passage will also bring cooler temperatures for the week. After this system moves through, a more potent trough develops along the Pacific coast and moves inland mid- week. This will keep the cooler and wetter pattern for the region, and some chances for lower elevation snow.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

There is some uncertainty in timing of the next system late Sunday through Tuesday. Chances for rain/snow increases along the Continental Divide later in the day Sunday. Some models have a front bring light rain to North-Central MT Sunday evening while others keep it dry. Another uncertainty is the timing of the frontal passage Monday. The European model brings it through the day Monday, while the GFS holds off until Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will affect how warm it gets on Monday, and when precipitation moves in. The slower progression of the front will keep warm afternoon temperatures, and lower relative humidities in Southwest MT. This would bring concerns for elevated fire weather if that plays out. An earlier front progression keeps this risk lower, with cooler afternoon temperatures and better moisture in the afternoon.

Warmer afternoon temperatures and cold overnight temperatures mid week will give some uncertainty in how much lower elevation snow falls, with most of it being diurnally driven. Meaning, snow looks to mainly accumulate during the night. -Wilson

AVIATION

27/18Z TAF Period.

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period under a dry westerly flow aloft with mainly clear skies this morning giving way to a gradual increase in high level clouds this afternoon. South to southwest surface winds develop by this afternoon at most terminals with gusts to around 20kts on the plains before winds relax again this evening. Hoenisch/Ludwig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 62 33 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 56 25 52 19 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 59 29 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 59 28 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 53 17 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 62 28 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 56 28 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 53 33 61 36 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.