textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong and gusty winds are expected from the evening hours tonight through Saturday across much of the Northern Rockies, particularly along the Rocky Mountain Front.

- Periods of light mountain snow are possible through the weekend with a chance for spotty lower elevation rain.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the next week.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 110 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

H500 ridging will dominate over the Northern Rockies through the weekend; however, there will be weak weak cresting over the ridge from the evening hours tonight through Saturday morning. This weak wave will bring a period of gusty southwest to west surface winds to most locations, along with light mountain snow throughout the timeframe. Otherwise dry and above to well above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend.

Another, but stronger, shortwave will briefly flatten the H500 ridge from Sunday night through the day on Monday. This shortwave will bring another period of strong and gusty west winds to most locations on Monday, along with increasing chances for mountain precipitation to predominately the Continental Divide. H500 ridging then quickly builds back in over the Western CONUS for the remainder of the work week, with well above normal temperatures and overall dry conditions expected across Southwest through North Central Montana. - Moldan

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

High Winds from Friday Evening through Saturday Morning...

Climate anomaly indicators such as the NAEFS and ECMWF EFIs continue to support the potential for a climatologically unusual, albeit weaker, high wind event from the evening hours tonight through Saturday morning. H700 cross barrier flow per NAEFS analysis is prog'd to reach between 40-60kts over portions of Central and North Central Montana over the aforementioned timeframe, which is generally 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above normal. ECMWF EFIs with respect to wind gusts are the highest along the Rocky Mountain Front and MT Hwy 200/US Hwy 87 corridor over this same timeframe, generally between 0.5 to 0.7. NBM probabilities continue to run between a 30-60% chance for wind gusts in excess of 48kts across Judith Basin County and far western portions of the Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera zone, with a 20-50% chance for wind gusts in excess of 64kts along the Rocky Mountain Front. BUFKIT soundings, particularly along the Rocky Mountain Front at Marias Pass and Cut Bank, support the potential for mountain wave activity, especially between 03-09z Saturday. Considering all of this information it was determined to leave the current suite of High Wind Watches as is as confidence in high winds occurring has not increased enough to warrant an upgrade or decreased enough to cancel the watch. I did briefly consider adding Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera to the High Wind Watch as both Mission Lake and Cut Bank have an opportunity of seeing high winds, but current thinking is that this would most likely be a one and done wind gust situation. With that being said the probability of seeing sustained winds of 34kts or greater at Mission Lake and Cut Bank is between a 30-40% chance, so a period of high sustained winds is as equally as probable here as is the probability for high wind gusts.

Mild Temperatures through next Friday...

ECMWF EFIs with respect to high temperatures continue to support a prolonged period of unusually "warm" temperatures, with respect to climatology, across all of Southwest through North Central Montana for the next week. NBM probabilities for high temperatures of 60 degrees or warmer range from a 10-30% chance over portions of the plains of Central and North Central Montana on Saturday and Tuesday, and a 50-90% chance on Sunday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. - Moldan

AVIATION

30/12Z TAF Period

Predominately low-VFR/VFR conditions are expected throughout the 3012/3112 TAF period; however, a passing upper level disturbance will bring mountain snow and chances for lower elevation rain to most terminals, mainly between 18z this afternoon and 03-09z Saturday. Periods of MVFR conditions are possible beneath these light areas of rain, especially south a KLWT to KHLN line. Mountains will be obscured for much of the next 24 hours, with increase instances of mountain wave turbulence and low level wind shear beyond 03z Saturday over Central and North Central Montana. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 49 43 57 35 / 20 20 0 0 CTB 48 39 54 31 / 20 20 0 0 HLN 44 35 54 34 / 30 20 10 0 BZN 41 30 52 27 / 20 20 0 0 WYS 28 17 37 14 / 30 20 10 0 DLN 43 26 50 27 / 20 10 10 0 HVR 43 36 52 23 / 20 20 10 0 LWT 46 37 52 31 / 30 30 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.