textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild winds and seasonally warm temperatures today, with small chances for precipitation scattered across Central and North- Central MT late tonight into tomorrow morning.

- Gusty winds return Tuesday across North-Central and Central MT, although not as strong as the winds this past weekend.

- Seasonally warm and dry throughout the rest of this week, with breezy conditions returning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 402 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Zonal flow aloft persists over the CWA today, allowing for seasonally average temperatures and mild winds. An upper level shortwave trough moves through the area tonight through tomorrow afternoon, bringing a surge of moisture with it. This will allow for low, but non-zero, chances of precipitation tonight scattered across the region, particularly over higher elevations and across the Golden Triangle. However, snow levels still remain above 6000 ft.

Increased moisture aloft is not the only thing the passage of this shortwave trough is bringing. It is also bringing another round of windy conditions on Tuesday, due to causing a tightening pressure gradient, both at the surface and aloft. These winds are not expected to be as strong as those this past weekend, with current forecasted gusts only being around 60-65 mph across the Rocky Mountain Front and 40-45 mph throughout the rest of North- Central MT.

By Tuesday night a strong upper level ridge begins to build over the Idaho Panhandle, and will slowly move east until its axis is centered over the Montana-Dakotas border by Friday afternoon. This will allow for temperatures to rise to seasonally warm values and for winds to mellow out, although relatively breezy stretches are still possible across the plains. However, it is hard to go more than a few days without windy conditions over Central/North- Central MT, and this case holds true once again for this weekend. The ridge begins to break down Saturday morning, and combined with another passage of a shortwave trough Saturday evening, will bring the potential for windy conditions to return over the weekend. Uncertainty still exists in how this ridge will breakdown, so not much can be said at this time in regards to how strong these winds may be. -Dzomba

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

As mentioned prior, cross barrier flow increases once again as the next wave progresses through the region. Orientation of the stronger flow aloft (southwesterly) is more favorable late Monday evening, though ridgetop stability will be weaker compared to Tuesday. This raises doubts that stronger winds will materialize at the surface near the Rocky Mountain Front Monday evening/night. As better ridgetop stability develops into Tuesday the stronger winds aloft trend more northwesterly. This orientation is less conducive to mixing stronger winds to the surface, but it will bear monitoring. -AM

There is a 50-70% chance of gusts greater than 65 MPH along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front on Tuesday, with those chances decreasing to only 20-40% for gusts greater than 75 MPH. Winds throughout the rest of Central/North-Central MT will be much less, with considerable chances dropping off rapidly beyond gusts of 40 MPH. The exception is the area of Great Falls south to the Little Belts, which still has a 40-60% chance of gusts greater than 50 MPH. -Dzomba

AVIATION

09/12Z TAF Period

Moist conditions aloft will allow for scattered mid clouds and a broken layer of high clouds to persist over the entire CWA through the period. A few light mountain showers/sprinkles are possible at times, but any precipitation should be light/isolated. Overall, surface winds should be lighter than they have been over North Central MT today. Mountains/passes could be obscured at times through the period by some mid/high clouds. Brusda

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 56 41 58 43 / 10 10 0 0 CTB 51 36 53 38 / 0 10 0 0 HLN 55 36 56 35 / 10 0 10 0 BZN 56 35 55 32 / 0 10 30 0 WYS 49 27 45 24 / 0 10 20 0 DLN 56 34 54 30 / 0 0 10 0 HVR 53 34 60 36 / 0 30 10 0 LWT 57 38 55 36 / 0 10 30 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.