textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly cold temperatures slowly moderate from southwest to north east through the weekend.

- Breezy to windy conditions develop along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains on Monday before expanding to all areas Wednesday and Thursday.

- Mostly dry and mild conditions continue through Friday, but there will be periods of mountain snow and some spotty lower elevation rain and snow showers.

- Below average temperatures and periods of light snow look to return to northern areas next weekend.

DISCUSSION

/Issued 155 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Ridging aloft builds in tonight into Sunday while warm air advection continues to thin the Arctic air mass from top to bottom. After another cold night tonight with some patchy fog over the plains, warming southwesterly surface winds begin to make a northward run during the day on Sunday. Westerly winds aloft strengthen Sunday night with H700 winds increasing to around 40 to 50 knots over north- central MT by Monday afternoon. This will bring the first round of windy conditions along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains and will push temperatures back to around 10 to 20 degrees above average.

While dry conditions persist for most areas on Monday, moisture streaming over the ridge of high pressure will result in periods of light snow developing over immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front. This activity will pick up in intensity and coverage Tuesday into Wednesday as the first of two larger scale shortwaves move through the Northern Rockies. Snowfall with this system will be most widespread and heaviest along the Continental Divide with lighter end snows over the mountain ranges to the east. There will also be scattered rain and snow shower potential for lower elevations, but precipitation amounts and snow accumulations look to be negligible. Surface winds will also increase and become more widespread with 60 mph + wind gusts becoming more commonplace, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front, the plains, and the normally wind prone southwest valleys and ridge tops.

Strong westerly flow aloft gradually becomes more northwesterly during the latter part of the week with around two thirds of ensembles favoring a colder trough brushing north-central Montana with a wave of light snow and below average temperatures next weekend. Prior to the arrival of the colder air, strong westerly flow aloft combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient looks to bring continued widespread strong winds and mostly mountain snow on Thursday. - RCG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Windy conditions along the Rocky Mountain Front/plains on Monday become more widespread heading into the mid-week period...

Monday's winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains will mostly be driven by stronger winds aloft and diurnal mixing rather than surface pressure gradients and mountain wave activity. This will result in widespread 25 to 40 mph sustained winds with gusts in 40 to 60 mph range. The primary impact will be difficult travel for higher profile vehicles, though there will be a brief opportunity for blowing and drifting snow late Sunday into Monday, prior to temperatures warming above freezing. A high wind watch was sent out for areas with probabilities near or above 50% for sustained winds above 40 mph or gusts over 55 mph. This included the Rocky Mountain Front zones, the eastern Glacier/western Toole zone, and the highway 87/200 corridor in Cascade and Judith Basin counties.

The stronger winds look to expand to include much of the forecast area Wednesday into Thursday with the passage of the aforementioned Pacific troughs. In addition to the stronger winds aloft, there will also be mountain wave activity and tightening surface pressure gradients. Areas along the Rocky Mountain Front are already boasting probabilities over 70% for gusts over 70 mph while portions of the plains and the Madison Valley in southwest MT see over 50% chances for gusts over 70 mph.

Mostly mountain snow and scattered lower elevation rain and snow showers...

Mountain snowfall will be heaviest along the higher terrain of the Continental Divide Tuesday into Wednesday when there will be over a 50% chance for snowfall totals over 6 inches at Marias Pass in the East Glacier area and Chief Joseph Pass in southwest MT. Another round of mountain snow with similar amounts moves in later Thursday into Friday, though this activity should be more focused along the Rocky Mountain Front. While surface temperatures look to be to mild for lower elevation snow accumulation, there will be sufficient colder air aloft for some lower elevation convective snow showers on Wednesday. The next opportunity for more widespread lower elevation snow looks to arrive next weekend, mostly for central and north- central areas. - RCG

AVIATION

21/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 2200/2300 TAF period as upper level ridging amplifies over the Northern Rockies. A period of mid-level cloudiness will overspread Southwest through North Central Montana from 09-18z Sunday, with some mountain top obscuration possible through this timeframe. - Moldan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF -3 35 21 54 / 0 0 0 10 CTB -3 31 14 50 / 0 0 0 20 HLN 11 44 24 51 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 12 46 21 51 / 0 0 0 0 WYS -2 36 7 39 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 15 46 22 50 / 0 0 0 0 HVR -12 19 11 50 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 6 39 24 51 / 0 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains.

High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.