textproduct: Great Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains from this evening through Saturday morning. - Small potential for freezing rain in Blaine County Tonight. - High potential for 60+ degrees on Sunday, Wednesday, Thursday, and next Friday.

UPDATE

/Issued 748 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2026/

The leading edge of an upper level disturbance is beginning to nose into North-central Montana early this evening. An increasing pressure gradient in tandem with increasing near surface flow along the Rocky Mountain Front has resulted in strong winds and gusts already this evening. The magnitude of the pressure gradient is forecast to peak through midnight or so, similar to near surface flow. Given there looks to be at least another few hours of these stronger winds, I have opted to expand this High Wind Warning to include the Cut Bank area, and begin all High Wind Warnings immediately. Winds look to gradually diminish late tonight.

The other forecast point of note is for very light radar echoes developing over the plains, largely east of I-15 this evening. The reason these light echoes are of note is that surface temperatures east of Havre on US-2 are at the freezing mark. Should any precipitation make it to the surface in this area, it would be as freezing rain. While this scenario is low probability, largely less than 20%, it was worth adding to the forecast given the potential for impacts.

Forecast winds and gusts were nudged toward observations this evening, slowly diminishing toward Saturday morning. Otherwise the only other change was to add low-end light freezing rain mention east of Havre later this evening for a few hours. -AM

DISCUSSION

/Issued 748 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Strong and persistent upper level ridging will be the main driver of our weather over the next week or so, bringing generally warm, dry, and occasionally breezy weather to the area. While this ridge will be the predominant pattern, we will have a few weak systems moving through the area over the northern edge of this ridge, the first of which will move through the area overnight tonight, bringing increased winds and some light precipitation, some of which may fall as freezing rain in Blaine County. Winds will also be on the increase behind this light round of precipitation (see the Confidence & Scenarios section for more details on the precipitation and winds).

These winds will blow in some noticeably warmer air for Saturday and especially Sunday, with temperatures climbing into the upper 50s and even low 60s both days. A weak weather system will bring some cooler air Monday and Tuesday, but warmth quickly builds back into the area, with many lower elevation areas reaching the 60s each afternoon for the second half of the week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wintry Precipitation tonight: A round of isolated to scattered light precipitation will accompany an elevated warm front pushing through the area this evening. While temperatures at the surface should generally be above freezing at lower elevations, a few areas of northeastern Blaine County may be a bit slow to get above freezing tonight. Should temperatures be slow to rise and some of the isolated precipitation makes its way into the area, a light glaze of ice will be possible. Be cautious even if temperatures rise just slightly above freezing, as ground temperatures may still be cold enough to allow some of the rain to freeze on contact even if your thermometer is reading above freezing.

Winds tonight through Saturday: Winds will be on the increase overnight tonight behind an initial round of scattered light precipitation, first along the Rocky Mountain Front tonight, then across the plains during the day on Saturday. This event has been on the fence of High Wind Criteria in a few locations, which prompted the issuance of the High Wind Watch yesterday. Now that the time for upgrade decisions has arrived, I remain on the fence with this event as probabilities for High Wind criteria generally remain around or under 50%. With that said, this falls short of the 80% confidence suggested for an upgrade to a warning, so I have elected to drop most of the High Wind Watches at this time. That excludes the Northern High Plains and Glacier Park region, as I have just enough confidence for high winds to occur here to warrant the upgrade to the Warning. Regardless of whether or not a specific area received the upgrade, tonight and tomorrow morning will be quite gusty, so the watch did its job of getting our message out. Ludwig

AVIATION

31/06Z TAF Period

The main concern this TAF period will be for gusty winds across the plains through Saturday, with isolated instances of low-level wind shear through the overnight in areas where surface winds are lighter. Across Central and Southwest Montana valleys concerns are lower for both gusty winds and low-level wind shear. Mountain wave activity will persist, particularly for areas near the Rocky Mountain Front. -AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

GTF 41 57 35 56 / 10 0 10 10 CTB 38 54 32 55 / 10 0 10 0 HLN 34 54 30 51 / 10 0 10 0 BZN 29 53 27 52 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 16 37 10 39 / 10 10 0 0 DLN 27 50 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 35 51 25 49 / 20 0 0 0 LWT 36 52 30 56 / 20 0 0 0

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Saturday for East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains.

High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Saturday for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera.