textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will move east across the area today.

- Temperatures will warm up late this week, with above normal temperatures expected Friday through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

In the upper/mid levels a series of shortwaves will continue to rotate through northern Florida today and Thursday, allowing the longwave trough to dig deeper into the Eastern Seaboard through through the rest of the work week. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the Florida Peninsula today, fueling isolated to scattered showers and storms, with the highest rain chances over the interior in the afternoon. As the upper level trough digs in, the frontal boundary will push south Thursday and Friday allowing surface high pressure to build in from the north, bringing warmer and drier air into the forecast area to end the week.

During the weekend, strong surface high pressure will settle in northeast of Florida, with southeast flow advecting in slightly deeper moisture. This will result in isolated to scattered showers and storms being possible each afternoon during the weekend, mainly over the southern and central portions of the forecast area. Through early next week, the surface ridge will gradually spread farther into Florida as broad ridging sets up aloft. This pattern will create broad subsidence, allowing temperatures to increase, with afternoon max temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Some MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible at times this morning as showers continue to shift off the Gulf and into west central and southwest Florida. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon, mainly over the interior and across southwest Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

A stalled frontal boundary will linger over the waters today, with periods of showers and a few storms possible. Drier air will fill in tonight through the rest of the week as the front pushes south and high pressure fills into the waters from the north. This will set up northerly and northeasterly flow Thursday and Friday, and east to southeast flow this weekend. Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria through the upcoming weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Deep moisture will hold over the area today as a stalled frontal boundary lingers over the Florida Peninsula. This will bring isolated to scattered showers and a few storms, with the greatest rain chances over the interior during the afternoon. Drier air will fill into the area on Thursday, but widespread critically low relative humidity is not anticipated. High dispersion indices will be possible both afternoons.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 86 72 86 71 / 20 10 0 0 FMY 89 73 91 71 / 30 10 0 10 GIF 88 70 88 67 / 50 20 0 0 SRQ 87 72 88 70 / 30 10 0 0 BKV 86 66 87 62 / 30 10 0 0 SPG 87 74 88 74 / 20 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.