textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Saharan dust will keep rain chances lower and daytime highs hotter through the week. Continue to practice heat safety when spending time outdoors.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, beginning near the coast during the morning hours, then moving inland into the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula each afternoon and evening. Strong gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the greatest threats.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

West to northwest flow will persist through the week as a stalled frontal boundary across the southeast U.S. eventually washes out and the high pressure ridge holds to our south and west. There will be enough moisture, even with the Saharan Dust over the area, for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. This flow would favor convection near coastal areas during the morning then shifting inland and into the eastern half of the Florida peninsula each late afternoon and evening.

Over the weekend and into early next week, global models develop troughing southward along the eastern U.S. seaboard into the eastern gulf. This setup would bring increasing moisture and higher rain chances to the region as the Saharan dust diminishes some.

Temperatures will remain near to a few degrees above normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over inland areas which could affect LAL, PGD, FMY, and RSW causing some MVFR/local IFR conditions. Otherwise, the southwest to west flow will keep most of the convection over the eastern half of the Florida peninsula this afternoon and evening, with VFR conditions prevailing. Southwest to west winds at 5 to 10 knots will become light and variable this evening, then become west to northwest 5 to 10 knots late Wednesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A general west to northwest flow will persist over the eastern Gulf through the week with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The flow may increase late in the week with slightly elevated, choppy, and short period seas into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Weak high pressure will remain over the region keeping the warm and humid summertime conditions in place. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorm are expected each day with gusty erratic winds and frequent lightning possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 93 81 94 / 10 20 10 20 FMY 77 97 78 97 / 10 30 10 10 GIF 75 96 76 96 / 30 20 10 20 SRQ 78 95 80 95 / 10 20 10 10 BKV 74 94 76 95 / 10 20 10 20 SPG 80 94 81 94 / 10 20 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.