textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures through the week...chance of daily afternoon and evening showers, with higher chances toward the interior and lower chances toward the coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 A somewhat summerlike pattern setting up across west central and southwest Florida for the next week. An U/L trough currently over the area will lift away from the region today and tonight. A subtropical ridge will build over the Florida peninsula on Tuesday...and will hold over the forecast area through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Surface high pressure over the northeast U.S. extends down the eastern seaboard and over Florida. Well established easterly boundary layer flow off the Atlantic will persist through the forecast period as the area of high pressure holds over the region. Scattered showers will move onshore the Florida east coast each day. Daytime heating will cause the atmosphere to destabilize which will allow the shower activity over the eastern peninsula to push inland across the interior during the afternoon hours each day, and potentially make it's way to the west coast of the peninsula late in the day. This will be diurnally driven by surface heating with shower activity ending shortly after sunset.

One caveat...residual mid level cold air will persist today over the forecast area associated with the U/L trough. This will create increased instability with a few thunderstorms possible during the mid/late afternoon hours, mainly from about Sarasota south during the late afternoon and early evening hours along the west coast seabreeze boundary...with the best chance over southwest Florida. The remainder of the week, activity is expected to be primarily showers due to the U/L ridge and increased large scale subsidence building over the forecast area. This will also result in temperatures running well above climatic normals through the period. High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 80s today and Tuesday...increasing to the mid to upper 80s mid/late week. Low temperatures will be in the 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 Areas of low clouds and fog and will develop late tonight, with the best chance over southwest Florida, creating areas of IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs...with LCL LIFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. Clouds/fog will lift shortly after sunrise with skies becoming partly cloudy across the region with SCT040-050 during the afternoon hours. Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms developing mid/late afternoon vcnty of PGD/FMY/RSW with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 1210 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period. The gradient will tighten a bit over the next couple of days, with an evening surge of easterly winds which could reach SCEC levels for a few hours each day. Otherwise, no headlines are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1210 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. No fire weather hazards are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 83 63 84 65 / 10 10 20 0 FMY 85 64 87 65 / 40 30 20 10 GIF 82 62 83 65 / 10 10 40 0 SRQ 83 63 84 65 / 20 20 20 0 BKV 84 56 85 59 / 10 0 20 0 SPG 82 66 83 68 / 20 10 20 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.