textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before a cold front brings in milder temperatures Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will spread south through the area Saturday and Saturday night, with a few strong or severe thunderstorms possible. Rain will clear out from north to south on Sunday.

- Winds will increase on Saturday, producing hazardous boating conditions over the coastal waters and a high risk of rip currents along area beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

An upper level cutoff low centered north of the Great Lakes will linger through the weekend as a shortwave rotates around the base of the low into the eastern US. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is holding north of Florida today, with westerly flow keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, but allowing afternoon highs to climb into the low to mid 90s over the interior. As the shortwave digs south on Saturday, the surface front will start to push into the Florida Peninsula, bringing numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms spreading south through the forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. A few strong to severe storms will be possible on Saturday, with damaging wind gusts and hail the greatest threats. Rain will then slowly clear out from north to south Sunday and Sunday night as the front pushes into the Straits of Florida and stalls out. Storm total QPF continues to trend downward, with 5-day QPFs now around an inch or less across the area.

In addition to the rain threat, winds will also increase ahead of the front, bringing breezy conditions and a high risk of rip currents to the area on Saturday. The front will also bring a brief cooldown on Sunday, with highs running several degrees below normal and morning lows dropping into the 50s over the Nature Coast. Temperatures will then quickly warm back up to well above normal by the middle of next week as high pressure fills back in.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Some patchy stratus around sunrise early this morning could cause periods of MVFR or perhaps IFR conditions through around 14z. VFR conditions will then hold through the rest of the day under southwest winds.

MARINE

Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Westerly and southwesterly winds will continue today and tonight and then increase on Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading south through the area Saturday and Saturday night before clearing out from north to south Sunday and Sunday night. Small Craft Advisory level winds are expected with the front from Saturday morning through at least Sunday morning, with conditions then improving Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure builds in behind the front during the first half of the week, with lower rain chances and winds of around 15 knots or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

A dry air mass will hold in place today, with relative humidity percentages dropping to near critically low levels in the afternoon, mainly over the interior. Despite the dry air, wind speeds will not be high enough to produce widespread Red Flag conditions. Winds will increase on Saturday as a cold front moves in, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High dispersion indices are expected each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 73 88 64 / 0 0 50 80 FMY 89 70 90 71 / 0 0 10 70 GIF 94 68 92 65 / 0 0 30 80 SRQ 85 70 86 65 / 0 0 40 80 BKV 90 65 89 58 / 0 0 60 70 SPG 87 76 87 67 / 0 0 50 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.