textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions continue.

- Onshore flow will lead to scattered showers and storms over the Gulf Sunday morning that move inland during the afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION (including modified previous)

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A few showers and storms continue over the Gulf this afternoon, but most other convection is confined to the Nature Coast region and the interior and this general trend is expected through the rest of the afternoon and evening. The same pattern persists into Sunday, with the only caveat being a little extra moisture thanks to a boundary that will drift over north Florida. The boundary will enhance shower and storm activity over the NE Gulf with some of the showers and storms moving onshore over the nature coast. More typical afternoon showers along the interior will also be possible SUnday afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Conditions will continue to be hot, though below heat advisory levels.

A slight change in the pattern will arrive early next week with the flow transitioning more southeast. Dry air aloft will continue to keep rain chances on the low side Monday and Tuesday. Moisture begins to rebound Wednesday increasing rain chances through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected. Most storm activity will be east of the terminals through the rest of the afternoon and evening, though it should be noted that there are a few showers over the Gulf near the Tampa Bay region and these could briefly be near those sites, though impacts should remain low. A similiar pattern is forecast for tomorrow with rain chances in the morning near the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 West to southwest winds will remain over the waters for the next couple of days, with no headlines expected. Scattered showers and storms are forecast each day, mainly during the overnight and morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 90 78 92 / 20 50 10 20 FMY 79 94 78 95 / 0 20 10 30 GIF 75 95 74 96 / 10 30 10 20 SRQ 78 91 77 92 / 10 30 10 20 BKV 74 91 73 94 / 20 60 10 30 SPG 80 89 79 91 / 20 40 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.