textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 731 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for the next several days.

- An increasingly wet pattern is expected late in the week through early next week.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this evening will gradually dissipate around midnight. Dry mid level air over the region may allow a few stronger storms to produce gusty winds of 40 to 50 MPH.

Significant pattern change expected as deep tropical moisture over the eastern Gulf will move over the Florida peninsula tonight and Thursday. PCPW values that are currently around 1.5 inches will likely climb above 2 inches in the next 12 hours. Southerly boundary layer flow combined with the mid level moisture convergence is expected to cause the atmosphere over the relatively warmer waters of the eastern Gulf to destabilize with scattered to numerous showers developing late tonight, which will advect onshore by/around sunrise Thursday morning. Considerable cloudiness expected on Thursday with several rounds of showers/thunderstorms likely. Potential for training cells which could produce locally heavy rain/flooding of low lying flood prone areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Today is a transition day for us as wind flow aloft switches from the southeast to southwest. This will result in the afternoon convection starting a little farther inland today. However we should see one more day of those storms drifting towards the west coast through the evening hours. Overnight we are seeing a surge of moisture with PW well over 2 inches. This will result in showers and isolated thunderstorms developing in the Gulf that will start to push on land during our morning hours.

By Friday PWs come back down slightly just under 2 inches. However this is still above average for this time of year. Winds will remain out of the southwest. So each day we can expect to see morning showers push in from the Gulf with afternoon showers and storms develop inland in the afternoon pushing towards the east coast in the evening hours. This trend looks to stay in place through early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening vcnty TPA/PGD/FMY/RSW will produce LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. Skies will become partly cloudy by midnight. However, increasing cloudiness/VFR CIGs late tonight with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms developing vcnty all sites with the exception of LAL with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs...spreading inland toward LAL during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected on Thursday vcnty all terminals...likely impacting terminals for a few/several hours during the day...with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Winds will remain out of the south and southeast from 5 to 15 knots through Friday. After that we will see a shift in the winds to the southwest. However are biggest change in when we will see the shower activity. Starting today we will see shower activity developing overnight and pushing towards the coast each afternoon through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026 Summertime moisture with afternoon showers and storms will continue through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 87 77 / 30 60 60 20 FMY 93 75 89 76 / 50 50 60 30 GIF 93 75 89 74 / 70 70 80 30 SRQ 92 75 88 76 / 20 60 50 20 BKV 92 72 88 73 / 50 70 60 20 SPG 92 77 89 78 / 20 50 50 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.