textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- High risk of dangerous rip currents continues at area beaches through this evening.

- Lower rain chances today, then scattered to numerous storms return for Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Latest satellite and meso-analysis depict ridging at the surface and aloft extending over the region this afternoon, while PWATs continue to run a bit below normal for late July resulting in another afternoon of atypically lower shower and storm chances. Morning 12Z TBW and latest regional ACARS sounding indicate deep layer easterly flow, supporting predominantly late afternoon through evening highest rain chances across W FL in response to the E FL sea breeze making it way across the state and interacting the W FL sea breeze that most likely won't make too much progress inland given the prevailing easterly flow. With convection largely holding off until later in the day coupled with reduced cloud cover and a slightly drier atmospheric column, expect high temps to climb into the mid to upper 90s away from the influence of the W FL sea breeze along the immediate coast. Despite the warm temps, feels like temps for the majority of the area will remain in the low to mid 100s and below advisory criteria due to the relatively tempered humidity. Showers and storms will gradually diminish and push offshore by the early overnight hours, giving way to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight.

On Friday, a tropical wave currently analyzed in the vicinity of the Bahamas will push westward across the peninsula resulting in increasing moisture locally with PWATs approaching 2 inches, and a corresponding increase in showers and storms over the area, with scattered to numerous coverage expected during the afternoon and evening, highest along and south of I-4 within the deepest moisture. Highest rainfall amounts will likely focus toward coastal areas where boundary collisions will be maximized, with 24-hr PMM QPF totals generally up to around an inch across S interior and coastal WC/SWFL locations, and a few bulleyes approaching 1.5+ inches over SWFL where the heaviest downpours look to be most favored. Afternoon highs will remain in the mid to upper 90s away from the immediate coast across northern into central locations, but may be tempered by a few degrees to the south owing to increased showers and cloud cover.

High-latitude blocking sets up across Greenland and the Canadian Maritimes during the weekend, forcing longwave troughing to set up over the E Seaboard and the ridge axis currently over the peninsula to sink south of the local area while ridging builds to the west over the W/C CONUS. Meanwhile at the surface, a frontal boundary extending from a developing surface low offshore the Mid- Atlantic drops into the SE U.S. and stalls, displacing the surface ridge axis south of the local area. Moisture will remain in place ahead of the frontal boundary, with boundary layer flow gradually shifting to westerly, ultimately shifting the timing and coverage of showers and storms locally to favor scattered offshore and coastal activity during the morning hours, shifting inland and becoming scattered to numerous over the interior during the afternoon into evening hours before diminishing. This pattern then looks to hold through mid week, generally favoring slightly cooler high temps, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees coastal and lower to mid 90s interior over the weekend, followed by upper 80s coastal to lower 90s interior over the first half of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR continues this afternoon before a chance of showers/storms late afternoon for TPA/PIE/SRQ as the W FL sea breeze attempts to push inland, followed by higher chances this evening as the combination of a remnant E FL sea breeze and land breeze push offshore. Best shower/storm chances for remaining terminals late afternoon through evening as sea breeze driven convection pushes west across terminals. Winds generally onshore along the coast with the sea breeze, becoming easterly to light/variable overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

High pressure ridging over the waters will favor lower rain chances and winds around 10 knots or less today, although seas remain slightly elevated offshore with higher swells continuing across the eastern Gulf in response to Tropical Storm Bertha over the western Gulf. Seas will subside through Friday as Bertha moves further away and weakens. The ridge will shift southeast over the weekend into early next week as a frontal boundary stalls over the SE U.S., bringing a shift to westerly flow with overnight and early morning showers across the offshore coastal waters, gradually shifting onshore mid to late morning through the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

High pressure ridging and drier air today will favor lower than normal rain chances this afternoon, before moisture increases from the southeast on Friday in association with an approaching easterly tropical wave bringing higher rain chances. Ridging shifts south over the weekend into early next week as a frontal boundary stalls over the SE U.S., bringing a shift to westerly flow across the peninsula favoring isolated to scattered overnight and early morning showers across coastal areas, gradually shifting onshore mid to late morning and becoming scattered to numerous across the interior through the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 94 79 93 / 20 20 20 30 FMY 77 94 77 93 / 20 70 30 50 GIF 75 95 76 96 / 10 30 10 40 SRQ 76 95 77 93 / 30 40 20 30 BKV 72 96 74 95 / 20 10 10 20 SPG 78 94 79 92 / 20 30 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.