textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat impacts remain high to extreme across portions of the Nature Coast as feels like temperatures approach 110 degrees, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for tomorrow. Continue to practice good heat safety if spending prolonged periods of time outdoors.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the region, with the best window for storms at the coast during the early morning through early afternoon and inland in the afternoon and evening each day through the weekend. As rain becomes more widespread from Thursday through the weekend, the potential for localized flooding in mainly urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas increases as well.

- Winds begin to increase tomorrow as a weak front sinks south. This will lead to higher seas across coastal waters and a high risk of rip currents at area beaches for the next several days. Use caution if spending time in or around the water over the next several days.

UPDATE

Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

As earlier scattered showers continue to dissipate through this evening, the highest rainfall totals were observed in areas of western DeSoto, Hardee, and Polk counties. In these regions, 1+ inch totals were widespread, with localized totals of 3-5 inches. An area of northwest Desoto county received a radar indicated 5+ inches of rainfall. Other counties that received at least half inch plus totals this afternoon were northern Sarasota, southern Manatee, eastern Hillsborough, and areas of Lee and Highlands. Little re-development is expected until the early morning hours, where convection off the coast could bring ashore some showers which may persist and become gradually more widespread through the afternoon and into early evening. The highest rainfall totals are still expected near the immediate coastline, although chances of rain remain significant inland. Continuing warm and humid conditions, overnight lows will remain in the mid 70s to about 80 degrees. Into tomorrow afternoon, highs will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Forecast high heat indices of 108+ degrees in Levy, Sumter and Citrus counties merit heat advisory products, which will be in effect from late tomorrow morning through early evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The subtropical ridge axis remains suppressed to the SE of the Florida peninsula as a weak frontal boundary and surface low slowly meanders southward off the SE coast. This is due to an upper-level ridge over the WEST CONUS and an upper-level trough over the E CONUS. In response, a westerly flow prevails across Florida, with deep tropical moisture streaming into the region. The 12Z sounding showed a PWAT of 2.30 inches this morning. Climatologically, this comes in above the 90th percentile for the day, which support the scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that are ongoing across the FL peninsula.

Over the course of the next week, the pattern remains very static. An upper-level ridge remains dominant in the west, while a trough remains situated over the E CONUS. Really, the only element of note is that the winds increase beginning tomorrow. This is due to slight shift in the trough axis, and thus a slight southward shift for the ridge, allowing the surface front to slowly meander farther south later this week. High PWATs remain through the period, leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day.

The compounding influence of multiple days of heavy rainfall favor a greater potential for localized flooding as the week progresses. However, antecedent conditions still allow for quite a bit of rain to fall before major problems occur. Thus, the primary threat - for this week at least - will remain in more urban areas.

With this flow in place, it will remain very warm and humid. Overnight lows along the coast are not expected to dip below 80 degrees. For these areas, the lowest temperatures for the day may in fact occur during daytime hours as thunderstorms develop and move through. In areas that don't see rain, this combo will favor heat indices approaching 108 to 110 degrees by the afternoon. This is especially true across the northern Nature Coast, where a heat advisory has been issued once again for tomorrow.

The next chance for this pattern to break is next week as ridging slowly builds back in. In response to this change, a more southerly then perhaps ESE flow returns. This favors a more typical summertime pattern returning early next week with mostly sunny mornings and afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Onshore flow pattern continues to support lengthy windows for convection developing and pushing locally onshore bringing periods of MVFR/LCL IFR conditions across terminals, mainly from the mid- late overnight into the afternoon hours before chances lower late afternoon into early evening. Winds generally 5-10 knots through tonight before increasing to 10-15 knots during the morning, with higher gusts late morning through the afternoon, then decreasing slightly during the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A westerly flow remains in place through the rest of the week with showers and storms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and shifting onshore through the morning and early afternoon each day. Wind speeds will increase on Wednesday, with cautionary headlines possible through the rest of the week as seas increase.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Ample moisture and humidity will remain across the area, leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This is especially true Thursday onward through the weekend. The driest day this week is likely to be Wednesday. However, the overall setup is not conducive for red flag conditions through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 91 81 90 / 40 60 50 80 FMY 80 92 80 92 / 20 40 20 30 GIF 78 94 79 92 / 20 60 50 70 SRQ 80 91 80 91 / 30 60 50 70 BKV 78 93 78 91 / 30 60 70 80 SPG 81 90 82 89 / 50 60 50 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.