textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 827 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Be prepared to alter outdoor events if lightning and thunder are seen or heard.

- The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will range from late night and morning near the west coast then shifting inland into the interior by late afternoon and evening each day into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 840 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Recent radar imagery shows the majority of the precip activity this evening is across the eastern portions of the peninsula, though some light echoes are still being detected around west central and SWFL. However, it appears this has mostly resulted in virga. Thus, it should remain mostly dry across the TBW CWA through the remainder of the evening hours, but rain chances will start in increase overnight into Sunday morning, particularly across the Nature Coast region as onshore flow will be most pronounced there but can't rule out some isolated activity elsewhere overnight either given the moist airmass in place. The ongoing forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments made to PoPs overnight based on recent hi-res guidance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026 A near-zonal flow is in place aloft across the region as a low spins over the northeast and ridging remains centered south of the state. At the surface, the ridge axis remains south of the state as well, with weak low pressure to our northeast and this has led to continued onshore flow. A plume of tropical moisture is seen on satellite extending over the eastern Gulf and Florida and this, coupled with the onshore flow, led to scattered showers over the Gulf early that have since spread inland. This overall trend will continue through the rest of the day, with increasing coverage of storms over the interior and east coast as activity moves eastward.

A very similar setup will continue through Tuesday before we see a shift for the remainder of the week. On Wednesday, a frontal boundary will move across the state, with some drier air moving in behind it as high pressure builds across the southeast. This looks to potentially lower rain chances through the end of the week while also lowering humidity a bit as well, though the NBM is not picking up on this, so it remains to be seen what things look like over the next few days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 756 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Generally VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with winds out of the west falling to a less than 5 kts tonight and 5-10 kts on Sunday. Occasional scattered shower activity may move near or over terminals at times tomorrow, particularly in the morning to early afternoon hours, though any precip activity that occurs is expected to be light with minimal to no flight restrictions anticipated.

MARINE

Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026 High pressure will remain over the waters through the next several days, with westerly winds continuing. No headlines are expected, but scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and rough seas, mainly during the overnight and morning hours each day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels and lower fire weather concern. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 89 79 88 / 20 50 20 30 FMY 78 92 78 92 / 10 20 10 20 GIF 76 90 76 90 / 20 70 20 40 SRQ 78 90 79 90 / 10 30 10 20 BKV 75 90 75 89 / 20 40 30 40 SPG 80 90 80 90 / 20 40 20 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.