textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the Nature Coast through Monday. Marginal risk for the remainder of West Central and Southwest Florida.

- Flood Watch now in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 8 PM Monday.

- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through Monday.

- A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the northern waters until to 8 AM on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Morning discussion remains on track.

An anomalously sharp U/L trough will continue to dig over the eastern U.S. today and will cut-off over the southeast U.S. on Monday. The trough will rather quickly open up and lift away from the region Tuesday and Wednesday. An associated frontal boundary will sink south and stall over the Florida panhandle later today and tonight. Deep southwest flow ahead of the front will persist over west central and southwest Florida into early next week. This will also continue to create a high risk of rip currents along area beaches today. Deep tropical moisture has advected back over the forecast area with PCPW values AOA 2.25 inches...which will support locally heavy rainfall. The heaviest rain is expected to be across the nature coast where the strongest U/L support and large scale lift will occur. A flood watch is in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 8 PM Monday.

Showers/storms will develop over the northeast Gulf and adjacent coastal waters through early Sunday morning and will advect onshore through the morning/early afternoon hours. Additional showers/storms will likely develop south of the I-4 corridor due to surface heating during the late morning/early afternoon, being triggered along a weak west coast sea breeze boundary which will push inland rather quickly on the west to southwest boundary layer flow.

There will likely be a brief pause in the activity (about 6 to 8 hours) late this afternoon/evening as the atmosphere stabilizes a bit due to the widespread shower/storms. The atmosphere will destabilize once again around or after midnight with additional showers/storms redeveloping over the northeast Gulf and pushing back onshore with another round of showers/storms/locally heavy rain...with highest pops across the nature coast.

WPC has the much of the nature coast in a slight risk for excessive rainfall (15 to 39 percent chance of exceeding flash flood guidance) Sunday and Sunday night. This is very much supported by the dynamics/deep tropical moisture over the area and expected rounds of showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rain through Monday. Heaviest rainfall totals will likely occur near the coast, with locally 2 to 4 inches of rain possible today and 1 to 3 inches on Monday...with isolated higher amounts. Adding in the rainfall that fell on Saturday, the potential exists for storm total rainfall amounts through Monday of 4 to 8 inches across the watch area, with locally higher amounts likely.

Highest pops each day will be across the north with lower pops south...however as mentioned previously, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across all of west central and southwest Florida into Monday with localized flooding of urban and low lying poor drainage areas possible each day.

The U/L trough will begin to lift away from the forecast area early next week, with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic building across the Florida peninsula. Tuesday will be a transition day as the boundary layer flow becomes re-established from the east to southeast by mid week. More typical summertime pattern will develop shifting the timing of daily showers/storms to the mid/late afternoon and evening with the highest pops along the coastal counties as the west coast sea breeze boundary fails to progress very far inland each day...before being pushed back to the coast and offshore during the late afternoon/evening hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) SW flow regime to push brief LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs VCTS inland aft 22Z. Only exception may be N Tampa Bay sites as last of the E Central Gulf storms move into the area. VFR conditions outside of convection this afternoon and tonight. Another round of morning SHRA/TSRA expected Monday aft 10Z.

MARINE

High pressure south of the region continues to produce southwesterly flow over the Gulf waters into early week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and choppy seas. Storms to develop in the overnight hours then move ashore during the mornings each day. Advisory level winds continue across the northern waters with SCEC winds over central waters into Monday. High pressure builds over the region mid week with winds and seas slowly subsiding.

FIRE WEATHER

Abundant moisture will remain over the region with high rain chances keeping minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 87 78 88 / 40 60 50 60 FMY 77 90 77 90 / 20 30 20 60 GIF 75 88 75 89 / 20 50 20 60 SRQ 77 88 77 88 / 30 40 30 40 BKV 73 86 73 88 / 60 70 50 70 SPG 80 87 79 87 / 40 50 50 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.