textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold conditions with freezing temperatures likely this morning and Thursday morning.

- Even colder air arrives Saturday night, with widespread hard freeze conditions and low wind chills each morning into early next week.

- Hazardous marine conditions return this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Strong high pressure still keeping cold and dry air over the state with most of us still sitting in the 50's this afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow morning will once again be near or below freezing but will be slightly warmer tomorrow afternoon with highs back in the 60's. Another strong cold front will start to form in the northern Gulf on Friday. This will slightly raise temperatures to near 70 degrees Friday afternoon. However the front will slide through Friday night into Saturday morning bringing scattered showers for the area.

As the low pressure pushing into the Atlantic on Saturday it will rapidly deepen as it pulls cold air south. The rapidly deepening low will make for a breezy Saturday with gusts as high as 30 mph. This will also cause temperatures to drop during the day. As we head into Saturday night we could still see some wrap around moisture associated with the low along with dropping temperatures. Models over the last couple of cycle have slowly increased the probability of seeing some Gulf Effect Flurries or even a rain/snow mix over our coastal areas. This is supported by a strong northwesterly wind and a big difference between water temperatures and air temperature. Even though surface temperatures as the time will be slightly above freezing the Wet Bulb Temperatures look to be at or below freezing which would also support flurries. The biggest question will be IF we still have enough moisture around to produce any flurries. Right now we have decided to add a 20 percent rain/snow mix in Pinellas Saturday night with a mention of flurries across much of the coast areas but confidence is still low for right now. We want to emphasize we are not expecting any accumulation as any snow that does fall will melt as soon as it touches the ground.

The thing we are more confident about is seeing some of the coldest air across the CWA in about 15 years. We will see widespread lows in the 20's in inland locations on Sunday with the gusty northwesterly winds keeping coastal areas a little warmer. Highs for everyone will be stuck in the 40's. By Sunday night winds will calm down allow for more radiational cooling. This will allow more widespread 20's in the forecast for Monday morning before warming up to the 50's by the afternoon.

Temperatures will slowly try to warm up by next Tuesday but we can expect at least one more morning on widespread freezing temperatures before getting into the 60's Tuesday afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions through the period with northerly winds.

MARINE

Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Winds will remain breezy out of the north around 15 to 20 knots for today and Thursday as strong high pressure remains over the area. A low pressure developing in the Gulf on Friday will switch winds to the the southeast around 5 to 10 mph. Scattered showers will be possible Friday night as the low pressure move across the state. This low pressure is expected to rapidly deepening in the Atlantic which will result in winds quickly increasing on Saturday. We are expecting near gale force winds by Saturday afternoon through the early morning hours on Sunday. By Sunday afternoon winds will slowly be coming down but will still remain at Small Craft Advisory conditions through Sunday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Critical RHs will still be around Thursday afternoon with winds still remain below criteria for a red flag warning. Moisture will start to increase on Friday ahead of a developing low pressure system in the Gulf. This low pressure will makes its way through Friday night and Saturday morning bringing scattered showers for the area. Much colder and drier air will filter in mainly on Sunday with RHs near critical levels for inland locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 58 38 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 63 38 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 35 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 60 39 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 59 27 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 59 46 66 51 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Lee- Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.