textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms continue. A few storms may produce strong winds of 50+ mph and small hail. - A summertime pattern will continue through mid week. Potential for some drier air by late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

With the upper level low still parked over florida today, the pattern will remain the same. Showers and storms are beginning to develop over SWFL and inland. Coverage will increase through the afternoon and into the evening. Cold air aloft will increase chances of stronger storms, with the main hazards being damaging wind gusts, and possibly small hail. Storms will likely be slow moving, so localized flooding of Urban and poor drainage areas will also be possible.

The upper level gets shifted out of the area by Wednesday as another upper level disturbance moves east across the U.S. By the end of the week the pattern will change once again as a frontal boundary moves south over Florida. Drier, and slightly cooler air will filter in following the front, which will limit rain chances. Over the weekend, some areas, especially northern and central zones could wake up in the upper 60s. High temperatures will likely max out in the upper 80s. Overall, should be a very pleasant weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR conditions mostly prevail through the period with the exception of afternoon showers and storms developing and impacting sites. Timing for impacts will likely be this afternoon to the early evening hours. Quiet conditions return overnight. Similar pattern expected tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Quiet marine conditions over the next couple of days, with the exception being storms that develop or move over the waters. By midweek however, a frontal boundary will approach the waters and northeast winds will increase as it departs. Winds will likely reach cautionary levels with the potential of advisory levels. Winds and seas should begin to subside by the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the period as plenty of moisture remains over the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 75 89 76 90 / 40 40 20 50 FMY 75 90 76 89 / 40 50 30 70 GIF 73 91 74 91 / 40 40 30 60 SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 40 40 30 50 BKV 72 91 73 91 / 30 40 20 50 SPG 76 89 77 89 / 30 40 30 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.