textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory for all of west central and southwest Florida today. Hot conditions will continue for the next several days.

- Below normal rain chances for most of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 No let up to the heat. A strong U/L ridge over the area will actually build another 20 to 30 decameters today enhancing the strong subsidence already over the region. This will in effect increase max temps a degree or two and decrease areal coverage of afternoon shower/thunderstorm activity. A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of west central and southwest Florida today from 11 AM to 7 PM with max heat indices expected to be in the 108 to 111 range. The one caveat will be: how much dry air mixes down during the afternoon which would lower dew points and thus apparent temps. The most likely area for this to occur would be over the interior and possibly southwest Florida. Either way, hot conditions will prevail with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, and wouldn't be surprised to see isolated locations hit 98 or 99, mainly across the interior.

Today will also be a transition day in the boundary layer as the surface ridge axis will extend across the central Florida peninsula with generally light easterly flow south of I-4 and weak onshore westerly flow to the north of I-4. This will create a more north to south oriented sea breeze boundary late in the day, running from interior north central Florida down over southwest Florida...which will again be the focus for scattered storms this afternoon. Given the strong insolation and some mid level dry air aloft, a few storms may be strong with wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH possible. Can't rule out an isolated severe storm.

Very little change to the overall conditions on Saturday as hot temperatures will continue. Late in the day, the leading edge of a significant area of dry air aloft associated with a SAL will approach southwest Florida. This moisture convergence boundary may initially enhance shower/thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon which will coincide with the highest pops across the forecast area...with much lower pops north and central. Again, a heat advisory may be needed for portions of the region and a few strong storms will also be possible.

On Sunday, much drier air aloft will advect over the central/southern forecast area associated with the remnant SAL, while the strong U/L ridge remains firmly over the Florida peninsula. Very low pops on Sunday as predominately hot dry conditions will prevail...and a heat advisory will likely be needed for portions of west central and southwest Florida.

The U/L ridge will continue to hold over the Florida peninsula into early next week, however heights will fall just a bit which should allow max temps to drop a degree or two...but overall they will still remain in the lower to mid 90s. Marginal heat advisory conditions will persist. Drier air aloft will remain over central and southern areas. The surface ridge axis will gradually sink south of the forecast area with onshore west winds developing across the entire area...which will promote any shower/thunderstorm activity to the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon, then pushing inland with a slight increase in areal coverage over the interior during the remainder of the day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the night and morning hours. Scattered thunderstorms with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs will develop Friday afternoon vcnty all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1242 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with generally light winds and seas. Isolated showers/storms will be possible each day, most like during the overnight and early morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 79 94 80 / 40 20 20 10 FMY 95 77 95 78 / 40 20 60 20 GIF 96 76 96 77 / 40 20 20 10 SRQ 95 77 95 78 / 40 20 20 10 BKV 95 75 96 75 / 40 20 20 10 SPG 95 79 94 81 / 40 10 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.