textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will spread south across the area today and Saturday night, with a few strong or severe thunderstorms possible.

- Winds will increase today creating hazardous boating conditions over the coastal waters and a high risk of rip currents along area beaches.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through today, then a cold front will bring milder temperatures on Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 747 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

A line of showers and storms ahead of a frontal boundary will spread over northern terminals (TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ) mid/late afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs developing...and over southwest Florida terminals (PGD/FMY/RSW) during the evening hours. There is a marginal risk for severe storms later today at (TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ). Gusty southwest winds up to 25-35 knots possible ahead of the front and in the vicinity of thunderstorms late morning through the evening hours. MVFR CIGs will stick around during the overnight hours Saturday night into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026 A frontal boundary will approach the nature coast this afternoon with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. The gradient across the forecast area will tighten ahead of the front with gusty southwest winds developing which will create a high risk for strong rip currents along area beaches today and Saturday night.

The front and associated showers/storms will push southeast across the forecast area the remainder of the afternoon and Saturday night. A L/L jet around 35 to 45 kts will develop across north Florida today and combined with increasing deep layer shear will create a risk for a few severe storms across north and central Florida...with a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms across the Nature Coast, and a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for much of west central Florida including the Tampa Bay area. A general thunderstorm risk will occur for the remainder of the forecast area.

The core of the L/L jet will exit to the northeast late this afternoon and this evening while the deep layer shear will begin to lag behind the frontal boundary becoming out of phase with the line of storms...especially if a cold pool develops and pushes storms further out ahead of the main dynamics. This will create the best chance for severe storms across the nature coast early in the risk period where ingredients will be more in phase, with a decreasing risk (although still a threat) for severe storms as the line sinks south over the central peninsula.

The boundary will stall across south Florida tonight and Sunday. Increasing isentropic lift will develop over southwest Florida on Sunday as 85H winds swing back to the southwest overriding the frontal boundary...and combined with U/L energy moving over south Florida will increase shower and thunderstorm activity over southwest Florida during the day on Sunday. The U/L energy will exit the region Sunday night with showers/storms finally pushing east of the region.

High pressure surface and aloft will build back over west central and southwest Florida early next week with drier air and large scale subsidence moving over the forecast area. Temperatures will increase back above climatic normals by mid week. The next much weaker frontal boundary will push across the forecast area late in the week with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

MARINE

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026 Increasing southwest winds ahead of a frontal boundary will create SCA conditions today across the northern and central waters. Winds will shift to the north and northeast in the wake of the front tonight with SCA conditions likely into Sunday morning. A period of SCEC levels winds will be possible over the southern waters late tonight and early Sunday. Winds and seas will subside Sunday night and into early next week as high pressure builds back over the waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 65 82 66 / 60 70 20 10 FMY 89 71 81 67 / 10 70 60 30 GIF 91 65 81 63 / 40 70 20 10 SRQ 86 65 81 65 / 50 70 30 10 BKV 88 58 83 56 / 70 60 10 0 SPG 87 68 83 69 / 60 70 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.