textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday, then more numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Strong gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are possible.
- Hot and humid summertime conditions continue with heat index values of 100 to 107 daily. Practice heat safety when spending time outdoors.
UPDATE
Issued at 835 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026
The continuing of dry Saharan dust aloft and a weak upper level ridge is keeping rain chances sparse. Sparse rain showers allow for dry conditions at the surface and extensive summertime heat index values. Winter Haven tied its record high at a 98 degrees today. PW remains low, ranging from 1.5-1.7inches, which will keep rain and storm chances on the low side on Thursday. The latest HRRR model guidance is showing some showers and storms developing along the Nature Coast and near Tampa Bay early tomorrow morning. The onshore flow will push the showers and storms eastward through the morning and into early afternoon. Overall, conditions will continue to remain on the dryer side with minimal activity. Forecast looks good for now with no changes needed at this time.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 835 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026
VFR conditions and winds 10 knots or less will prevail through the forecast period. Rain and storm chances remain on the low side again overnight and Thursday, so will keep only VCTS at TPA/PIE between 12- 17Z and LAL between 16-22Z. Other TAF sites should stay rain-free.
MARINE
Issued at 835 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026
West to northwest flow will persist over the eastern Gulf waters through Friday, then shift to southwesterly over the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday, then more numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday through the weekend. The flow is forecast to increase late in the week through the weekend with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Sunday and Sunday night.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 92 80 91 / 10 30 60 70 FMY 78 96 79 94 / 10 10 20 50 GIF 76 95 76 93 / 10 50 40 80 SRQ 80 94 80 92 / 10 20 60 70 BKV 75 93 76 92 / 40 50 60 70 SPG 81 92 81 91 / 10 30 60 70
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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