textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 831 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and into early next week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026 Widespread showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain continues from about the Tampa Bay area and north. Shower activity will very slowly stratify out and dissipate over the next several hours, but localized flooding continues to be a threat.

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to extend across the Florida peninsula for the next several days with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will cause east to southeast boundary layer flow to persist into early next week. The west coast sea breeze boundary will push inland about 20 to 40 miles each afternoon and will be the focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms...with the boundary/storms likely pushing back to the coast during the evening hours. Abundant deep layer moisture over the region will again lead to the risk of locally heavy rain/flooding this afternoon/evening.

Slightly drier air aloft will advect over the forecast area Monday and Tuesday which will reduce the areal coverage of afternoon storms. However, the drier mid level air may cause a few storms to be strong with gusty winds of 40 to 50 MPH.

Deeper moisture will return mid/late next week as an U/L trough develops over the Florida peninsula. Onshore boundary layer flow is also likely to develop as well. U/L energy (with daily details to far out to discern attm) associated with the U/L trough will enhance large scale lift increasing areal coverage of showers/storms as it taps the better deep layer moisture profile. This pattern generally favors showers/storms to develop over the coastal waters during the overnight hours advecting onshore each day with fairly widespread activity expected. Can't rule out locally heavy rain, especially over the coastal counties mainly from the Tampa Bay area and north, as training could develop off the increasingly warmer waters of the Gulf. Will continue to monitor evolution of this pattern change over the next several days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 831 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

We are looking at another active seabreeze thunderstorm day across West Central and Southwest Florida. Most of the storm activity will once again be in the evening and early overnight hours. Outside of thunderstorms we can expect VFR conditions with winds primarily be out of the southeast.

MARINE

Issued at 1209 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the middle of the upcoming week. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each afternoon which will push offshore during the evening hours causing locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold across the forecast area for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 76 90 77 / 70 60 40 50 FMY 93 76 93 76 / 60 50 30 20 GIF 92 75 92 76 / 50 40 30 20 SRQ 91 75 92 75 / 50 60 40 40 BKV 92 73 93 73 / 80 60 40 50 SPG 92 77 92 77 / 60 50 50 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.