textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Coastal flooding of 2 to 4 ft possible for Levy County with 1 to 3 ft possible southward to Hillsborough County Friday into Saturday.

- A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall with the threat for localized flooding on Saturday.

- Hazardous marine and beach conditions with seas up to 6 to 10 ft and dangerous rip currents today and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Somewhat of a transition day today as an U/L subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will build a bit west over the Florida peninsula today, aiding in steering Hurricane Isaias north toward the northern Gulf waters. This will create south to southeast flow over the peninsula today. Large swells associated from Isaias will push across the coastal waters creating storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above astronomical values along the Levy county coast, and 1 to 3 feet south of Yankeetown down the entire coast to Lee county. Dangerous rip currents will develop along area beaches which will persist through Saturday.

Deep tropical moisture will remain over the region with PCPW values again in excess of 2.25 inches. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across west central and southwest Florida, however storm movement will be much quicker from south to north. Although locally heavy rain will occur, the faster storm motion will decrease the longer term intensity of rain over a given area. But given the expected more north/south oriented bands of showers/storms, training of cells will be possible which could create areas of locally higher rainfall totals...if training occurs. The faster storm movement will also allow a few storms to create strong gusty winds.

Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall over the far western Florida panhandle late Friday. Scattered evening showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area will gradually dissipate by around midnight. Deep southerly flow will persist over the area, and can't rule out a few showers/storms over the eastern Gulf in the wake of Isaias moving locally onshore overnight, especially from Pinellas county and north.

Quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast for Saturday as a convergent band on the tail end of the large circulation of Isaias may extend over the Florida peninsula. This will aid in numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday across west central and southwest Florida with locally heavy rain possible. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday across all of west central and southwest Florida. Winds and seas will very slowly begin to subside Saturday night and Sunday.

Surface high pressure will build over the region early next week with much drier air surface and aloft advecting across the region bringing an end to the extended period of wet weather across the forecast area. It will be rather warm with highs around 90 to the lower 90s, however dew points are expected to drop into the 60s. Similar conditions are expected each day through much of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Areas IFR CIGs will persist for the next several hours at TPA/PIE/LAL. VFR CIGs are expected through the remainder of the night at all terminals. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms will develop on Saturday with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs and may impact terminals for a few hours, with the best chance during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Winds and seas will increase across the coastal waters today with dangerous conditions for small craft developing. A small craft advisory is in effect for all waters and bays/harbors today through Saturday. Winds and seas will gradually subside Saturday night and Sunday, with the winds coming down faster than the seas. High pressure will build over the waters early next week with benign conditions expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected through the weekend as deep tropical moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 78 88 78 / 50 30 60 50 FMY 90 78 90 78 / 50 30 60 30 GIF 91 77 91 76 / 60 30 70 30 SRQ 89 78 89 78 / 50 40 60 60 BKV 90 76 90 76 / 60 40 60 40 SPG 88 78 88 79 / 50 40 60 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Pasco-Pinellas.

High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through Saturday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT Saturday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.