textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 825 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A quiet morning across the area, but like yesterday everything is setting up for an active afternoon and evening. The southeast flow continues along with the abundant moisture, precipitable water >= 2 inches, so expect to see another round of showers and thunderstorms develop and move northwest across the area today. There could be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms around Tampa Bay and the Nature Coast early in the afternoon as the bay/sea breeze develops, otherwise the more numerous convection will spread in from the southeast during the mid to late afternoon into the evening hours. Potential for a few strong storms does exist like yesterday with gusty winds up to 50 mph, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning possible. Forecast looks ok at this time with no changes needed at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 825 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

MVFR/occasional IFR conditions are expected in numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There are some patches of MVFR ceilings around early this morning, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail. Light east to southeast winds early this morning will increase to 5 to 8 knots later this morning. Winds will shift to onshore with the bay/sea breezes at TPA, PIE and SRQ early this afternoon and then west to northwest mid to late afternoon. Elsewhere, east to southeast winds are expected to continue. Gusty erratic winds will be possible in and near any convection.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The active, rainy pattern continues over the area today and into next week. Showers and storms will develop inland in the early afternoon. Easterly flow will push showers and storms towards the west coast, then out over the Gulf in the late afternoon/evening. Main hazards will continue to be locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding in urban areas or areas with poor drainage. Frequent lightning and gusty winds could also be present in any storm that develops. Otherwise, conditions will be warm and humid with highs in the low 90s. The forecast remains on repeat through the end of the week.

MARINE

Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Light, easterly flow continues through the week as high pressure lingers. Storms are expected to move over the waters in the evening, brining localized elevated winds and seas as well as frequent lightning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as ample moisture remains over the area. Showers and storms are expected each day through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 76 89 77 / 70 60 60 30 FMY 91 76 91 76 / 70 40 80 30 GIF 91 75 90 75 / 70 30 70 10 SRQ 91 75 90 75 / 70 40 70 40 BKV 91 72 90 72 / 70 50 70 20 SPG 89 77 88 78 / 70 50 60 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.