textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast during the morning hours moving eastward during the afternoon/evening.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 736 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Showers and storms are expected to develop over the west coast of Florida by mid-morning. Will cover this with VCTS starting at 14Z at most sites, LAL at 15Z. Will also have TEMPO TSRA for MVFR CIGs and gusty winds in TSRA from 16-19Z for all sites except LAL, and 18-22Z for LAL. Rain clears all sites by evening with rain-free conditions through midnight. More showers and storms possible early morning on Sunday after 09Z, so will cover this with VCTS at all sites.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Ample moisture over the area today with southwest flow will bring morning showers to the west coast of Florida. The showers will be enroute to the middle part of the state by the afternoon and then right to the east coast of Florida by the evening. As we continue into our Sunday not much will change in our weather pattern as coastal areas will see the shower activity in the morning while areas inland will see storms in the afternoon and evening.

This shower trend will continue for the early part of next week. However, the highest chances will be inland locations south of I-4. Each day highs will be in the low to mid 90's.

By Wednesday we will see some drier air filtering into the area earning us some lower rain shower chances till the end of the week. A big factor for this drier air is Saharan dust that is currently ushering its way across the Atlantic. This Saharan Dust will bring the drier air into the mid levels. Lower shower chances also means increasing temperatures with almost all of us seeing the mid 90's. A few spots in the interior will see highs in the upper 90's. The upper level moisture and showers should increase by the weekend and lower temperatures slightly.

MARINE

Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

We will continue to see west to southwest flow through the middle part of next week with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. We will also see late overnight and early morning showers each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 80 91 80 / 60 50 40 20 FMY 92 77 92 78 / 50 40 40 20 GIF 92 75 93 76 / 70 20 70 20 SRQ 91 79 91 79 / 60 50 40 20 BKV 93 74 92 74 / 70 40 40 20 SPG 90 80 90 81 / 60 50 40 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.