textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters over the next several days, mainly during the evening and overnight hours.

- A cooler and drier airmass with below average temperatures will continue through most of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Previous forecast reasoning remains unchanged with no adjustments planned for the evening update. CONUS U/A pattern remains rather amplified with a cutoff low offshore the SW U.S., strong W/C U.S. ridge, and a deep trough over the E Seaboard, with surface high pressure centered over the E U.S. extending south into the state maintaining occasionally breezy E/NE winds and generally dry, stable conditions under partly cloudy skies locally. Latest regional ACARS soundings and meso-analysis show PWATs remain right around 1 inch, or just above the 25th percentile, indicative of the relatively drier air mass that remains in place over the state. Slightly below normal temps continue overnight through Thursday, with morning lows from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south, and afternoon highs from the upper 70s north to the lower/mid 80s south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 The pattern aloft this afternoon features ridging over the southern U.S./Mexico with a low off the mid-Atlantic coast and troughing extending southward over Florida. At the surface, high pressure is settled north of the state with low pressure moving up the eastern seaboard. This setup will keep relatively cool and dry conditions in place through the next few days.

For Friday into the weekend, a cutoff low tries to form south of the region before opening up and moving northeast while a surface low attempts to organize along an old frontal boundary near the Bahamas. This pattern shift will allow northeast winds to increase once again as the pressure gradient tightens and will also lead to an increase in moisture for the southern part of the state. For the local forecast area, this will mean a slight uptick in rain chances mainly over southwest Florida and parts of the interior this weekend into early next week along with an increase in humidity. Highs will continue a few degrees below normal (closer to normal for southwest Florida) and lows will remain below normal as well but then increase by a few degrees for the latter half of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Dry VFR expected through the period with generally NE flow continuing across terminals, occasionally breezy.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Northeast winds will continue over the waters for the next few days. Wind speeds will generally remain around 15 knots during the daytime, but will increase to exercise caution and close to advisory criteria each night. Starting Friday afternoon, winds will once again increase to advisory levels, with some gusts to gale force expected, and remain elevated into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next few days as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 65 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 62 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 55 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 67 80 66 81 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.