textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Moderate rain chances return to southwest Florida today, with limited chances north of the I-4 corridor.

- Higher rain and storm chances return second half of the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

An upper level trough is pushing through South Florida. THis has produced mainly shower activity for coastal coastal areas south of I- 4. The rest of us should remain dry for the rest of the day. Wednesday will be our transition as upper level troughing that has helped bring us the drier and cooler air will finally get cut off from the flow. As it does so high pressure will be working its way back in. This means scattered showers and storms will return but should remain a little on the lower end thanks to PW still around 1.75.

By Thursday and Friday high pressure over the Atlantic will be out domination weather influence. THis will bring east to southeasterly winds along with PWs back above 2 inches. This will fully bring back our summer time convection. The southeasterly flow should bring the highest totals inland in the afternoon and along the west coast in the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Saturday the ridge will start to shift more overhead. This could allow for a more lighter flow regime. If we see the lighter flow we will continue to see scattered showers and storms but they will be more slow moving which results in some minor urban flooding. On Sunday and Monday the upper level ridge starts to shift into the Gulf. Models right now showing a small decrease in PW when that happens. This shouldn't bring a big change into the forecast but could bring shower chances down slightly.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Passing showers possible along coastal areas south of I-4 due to the weak trough pushing through South Florida. The rest of our sites should remain VFR through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Winds will remain light through the middle of the week out of the east and northeast around 5 to 10 knots. Scattered shower chances will be possible each day. A cold front will start to approach the area on Thursday switching our winds more northeasterly and picking them up to 15 to 20 knots through Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Moisture will be slowly returning through mid week with a more typical summertime storm pattern returning by Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 72 88 73 / 20 10 40 30 FMY 85 72 88 74 / 50 30 50 30 GIF 88 71 90 73 / 10 10 40 30 SRQ 86 71 87 73 / 30 30 50 40 BKV 89 69 90 71 / 10 10 40 30 SPG 86 73 87 74 / 20 20 40 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.