textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Coastal flooding of 1 to 3 ft tonight from the Suwannee River to Bonita Beach.

- A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across Levy and western Citrus County Saturday and Saturday night with a Marginal Risk across the remainder of the region. There is a threat for localized flooding from heavy rainfall.

- Hazardous marine and beach conditions with seas up to 10 to 13 ft, high surf and dangerous rip currents tonight and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin Florida around 830 PM Friday evening, and is weakening as it pushes north over the western Florida panhandle. The main impacts across west central and southwest Florida ATTM are: above normal astronomical tides of 1 to 3 feet along the entire west coast of Florida along with high surf which will persist through the remainder of the night... dangerous rip currents which will continue through Saturday...and a small craft advisory for all of the waters which will also continue through much of Saturday.

A convergent band of showers/thunderstorms on the far eastern side of the hurricane extends from Levy county south over the eastern Gulf. This will be the main feature which will impact the forecast area through Saturday. If this band translates a bit further east, it would push onshore the coastal counties and bring the threat for locally heavy rain and the potential for flooding. The main threat currently is across Levy county where the shwrs/storms have pushed onshore. Although the showers/storms are moving quickly to the north which makes them rather brief over a given area which inhibits localized high rainfall totals, the band could set up a training scenario which would create a higher risk for locally heavier rainfall. Most activity has been weakening as its moved onshore tonight which would cause highest totals near the coast. On Saturday, daytime heating will increase convective instability and would likely allow showers/storms to maintain intensity and higher rainfall rates across inland areas. There is also a low end risk for isolated tornadoes tonight and Saturday, mainly across Levy county.

The deep southerly flow will persist into Sunday with deep tropical moisture remaining over the region. The convergent band will begin to push slowly southeast across west central and southwest Florida through the day as surface high pressure builds over the southeast U.S. and northern Gulf region...and will move over the Florida peninsula Sunday night and Monday finally pushing the deep tropical moisture south of the forecast, with much drier air surface and aloft advecting over the peninsula. Dew points will drop into the 50s across the nature coast early next week, with dew points in the lower to mid 60s across the central and southern forecast area. Temperatures however will run above climatic normals each day next week with highs generally in the upper 80s to around 90.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Areas of MVFR, LCL IFR, CIGs will persist through the night at all terminals. A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms just offshore the west coast of Florida may edge a bit east by morning and impact PIE/TPA with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs. More widespread shwrs/tstms will develop during the day on Saturday and may impact all terminals with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs, with the best chance at TPA/PIE/SRQ.

MARINE

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Very hazardous marine conditions will persist through the night. Winds will begin to decrease below SCA levels late in the day on Saturday, however seas will be slow to subside. High pressure will move over the water from north to south on Sunday with winds and seas continuing to improve.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected through the weekend as deep tropical moisture will remain across the region. Drier air will advect over the region early next week, however relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 78 85 72 / 70 70 60 0 FMY 90 78 89 76 / 50 40 60 10 GIF 91 76 87 70 / 90 30 70 0 SRQ 88 78 86 74 / 80 70 70 0 BKV 90 76 85 67 / 60 60 60 0 SPG 86 79 84 74 / 70 70 70 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy- Coastal Pasco-Pinellas.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.