textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Light showers and a stray storm today over SW Florida.

- Warming trend the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026 A stationary frontal boundary across the southern Florida peninsula combined with a weak U/L disturbance continues to produce a few light showers mainly over southwest Florida. The U/L disturbance will exit east of the area today with high pressure building over the forecast area with decreasing cloudiness and drier air advecting over much of the area. However, can't rule out an isolated afternoon shower or storm over southwest Florida. The clearing skies will lead to warmer temperatures this afternoon than the past couple of days.

Low level moisture will begin to recover on Tuesday as the surface ridge axis will be located north of the region creating easterly boundary layer flow off the Atlantic. An U/L ridge will build over the Florida peninsula mid week with increasing large scale subsidence causing temperatures to climb several degrees above normal. The subsidence should also inhibit afternoon convection creating flattened CU/partly cloudy skies and very warm days...and mostly clear nights.

A frontal boundary will approach north Florida late in the week stalling across north Florida as it becomes parallel to the U/L flow. There will still be a chance of showers/thunderstorms developing over the northern nature coast and portions of west central Florida as moisture increases and the mid level cap begins to erode. The U/L ridge will gradually give way and be suppressed to the south over the weekend with a slightly better chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026 Areas of MVFR CIGs around 025 over southwest Florida will persist through the early morning hours (PGD/FMY/RSW), with VFR CIGs 040-050 at TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ. Decreasing cloudiness through the remainder of the day with VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the week with generally benign conditions expected. Easterly flow today will shift to the south to southeast by mid week...then veering to the west and southwest ahead of a frontal boundary late in the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026 Drier air over the region will cause minimum afternoon relative humidity values to drop to near critical levels mainly across the nature coast today. However, winds are expected to remain below critical values. Moisture will begin to recover on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 86 68 89 72 / 10 10 10 0 FMY 86 68 90 70 / 20 20 10 0 GIF 85 65 90 69 / 10 0 10 0 SRQ 86 66 87 69 / 10 20 10 0 BKV 88 58 90 61 / 0 10 10 0 SPG 87 72 88 75 / 10 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.