textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the Nature Coast today. Marginal risk for the remainder of West Central Florida and the interior.

- Flood Watch in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 8 PM this evening.

- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The strong upper level southwesterly flow and high moisture content is continuing to give us widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms along the west coast of Florida. For the most part this rain has been a welcomed sight for out drought stricken area but a few spots have seen a little to much rain to quickly causing some minor flooding. This trend will continue through Tuesday.

By Wednesday PW drop slightly to be more around average for this time of year. At the same time ridging starts to build back in and shift north. This will shift our winds to a more easterly direction. So this will keep our favorable storm chances in the area however it will look more "summer like" then what we have seen the last few days. What I mean by that is that most storms will be occurringalong the sea breeze in the late afternoon and evening hours along the west coast compared to the more stratiform precip we have seen. This trend looks to stick around through the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

We continue to see a very wet pattern over the state with mainly on and off coastal showers. Most of this activity will be rain only but a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out in late morning through the evening hours. Winds will mainly be out of the west with gust up to 20 knots near the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The wet pattern will continue with a light south to southwesterly flow through Tuesday. By Wednesday winds will start to shift more easterly and start to see less shower activity in the Gulf. Any storms we see starting on Wednesday will be pushing off the west coast in the evening hours. Winds will start to increase on Friday with exercise caution possible by the afternoon hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A strong southwest flow with abundant moisture has help to bring beneficial rain to our coastal areas over the last several days. This pattern will continue through Tuesday. After that we will see a shift to a more easterly flow regime which will bring a more typical summertime weather pattern with scattered afternoon and evening storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 78 88 78 / 50 50 50 20 FMY 91 78 90 76 / 20 10 50 30 GIF 89 75 89 75 / 40 20 60 30 SRQ 88 77 88 75 / 30 30 40 20 BKV 86 73 88 72 / 70 60 60 10 SPG 87 79 87 79 / 50 40 50 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.