textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire potential this afternoon across parts of interior counties.

- Late night and early morning patchy mist/fog potential next few days.

- Above normal to near-record high temperatures over inland areas through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances Friday through Sunday for the northern Nature Coast and interior before area wide chances with a cold front on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Weak ridging in place over the peninsula early this afternoon south of a frontal boundary draped across the SE U.S. and N Gulf. Westerly flow aloft between broad E U.S. troughing and ridging over the Gulf, largely parallel to the boundary, will lead to only very gradual overall southward progression through the weekend aided by embedded shortwaves quickly propagating through the flow, keeping the majority of WC/SWFL under mainly dry conditions with slight afternoon and evening rain chances limited to interior and ECFL locations as surface and low-level flow remains westerly along and south of the boundary. Warm and dry conditions this afternoon coupled with winds around 10-15 mph will support an elevated fire risk for interior locations mainly across parts of Sumter, Polk, Hardee and Highlands counties, before gradually increasing moisture dampens the risk over the next few days. The increasing moisture will also support an increased likelihood of overnight and early morning low cloud and patchy fog development across much of the area. Above normal to near-record temps are expected to continue into the weekend locally, with highs into the low-mid 90s away from the coast, and the upper 80s to around 90 degrees along the immediate coast. Feels-like temps will approach the triple digits through the weekend for most areas south of I-4, with mid- upper 90s elsewhere.

A stronger shortwave digs across the C/E U.S. late in the weekend driving the boundary across the area on Monday with higher rain chances and scattered shower/storm development likely in response to the increased moisture ahead of the boundary as PWATs climb to around 1.5 inches and dewpoints into the low-mid 70s, respectively. Drier conditions return in the wake of the front with northerly flow advecting relatively cooler drier air into the area allowing PWATs to fall back into the 1-1.25 inch range and dewpoints back into the mid-upper 60s early-mid week, before flow gradually veers to easterly with Atlantic moisture gradually creeping back over the area supporting slight PoPs for afternoon showers and perhaps a storm mainly over interior S and SWFL during the mid-late week period. Slightly cooler in the wake of the front, with highs in the upper 80s-lower 90s through mid week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR this afternoon through evening and into tonight before likelihood of MVFR/IFR vsbys/cigs increases after midnight. Recent MOS guidance has trended toward continuing hi-res guidance depiction of sub-VFR conditions developing overnight and persisting into Friday morning for a few hours post-daybreak, within the 08-15Z period with improving conditions afterward. Winds remain W/SW generally around 10 knots or slightly higher this afternoon then gradually diminish through the evening to around 5 knots or less overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Generally benign marine conditions continue today as a boundary to the north slowly sinks toward the waters over the coming days. South through southwest winds expected across most of the waters through the weekend before the front pushes across the waters early next week with showers and storms followed by drier conditions in the wake of the front as winds shift to northerly.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Elevated fire risk this afternoon for interior counties with critical RHs and 10-15 mph winds before moisture recovers this evening. Gradually increasing moisture over the peninsula the next few days should temper fire concerns as a frontal boundary to the north slowly sinks south into the area, then pushes across the state early next week with showers and storms followed by relatively cooler and drier air filtering into the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 75 90 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 72 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 72 94 74 95 / 0 30 10 10 SRQ 73 88 74 89 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 72 91 70 92 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 76 90 76 90 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.