textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 805 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

An overall lighter low level east to southeast flow across the region this morning, sea breeze regime 2, which should allow the west coast sea breeze to develop and move inland to around or just east of the I-75 corridor later this afternoon. There will be enough moisture, precipitable water 1.4 to 1.6 inches, combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze to see scattered to numerous afternoon and evening convection. With the lighter flow the higher rain chances today are expected to be around or just east of the I-75 corridor. Current forecast looks good with no changes needed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 805 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning as daytime heating gets underway, then more MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible this afternoon and evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with east to southeast at 7 to 11 knots this morning. Expect the bay/sea breezes to develop early afternoon shifting winds to westerly at TPA, PIE, and SRQ, otherwise the overall east to southeast flow will persist into this evening before diminishing to 3 to 6 knots overnight. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Not much change to the overall forecast reasoning. Little change to the overall pattern through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will produce east to southeast boundary layer flow across the peninsula for the next several days. The west coast sea breeze boundary will develop each afternoon with the southeast flow holding the boundary over the coastal counties. The easterly flow isn't quite as strong as yesterday, which will allow the boundary to push about 20 to 30 miles further inland, which will also shift highest pops today to the interior coastal counties.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon along the boundary with the greatest areal coverage from the Tampa Bay area and south. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH and small hail.

An U/L low east of the Bahamas will meander off the east coast of Florida through the end of the week. This will in effect create lower heights over west central and southwest Florida which will aid in increasing convective instability. The U/L low will exit over the weekend, and a strong U/L ridge will build over the forecast area increasing large scale subsidence over the area. Scattered to numerous afternoon showers/storms are still expected to develop along the west coast sea breeze boundary over the weekend as the increased subsidence will likely be offset by slightly warmer temps/increased low level instability.

Offshore flow will aid in continuing above normal daily temperatures across west central and southwest Florida with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. The increased subsidence over the weekend will allow temperatures to climb even a few degrees higher.

MARINE

Issued at 1214 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each day which will push locally offshore during the afternoon/evening hours causing locally strong winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1214 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold across the forecast area for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 75 91 77 / 30 30 20 20 FMY 92 73 93 75 / 60 40 50 20 GIF 92 72 92 74 / 40 30 30 20 SRQ 91 73 91 75 / 30 30 20 10 BKV 93 69 93 71 / 30 20 20 20 SPG 93 75 92 78 / 30 30 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.