textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Upper level troughing to the north weakens and lifts northeastward over New England by this evening. This will allow for upper ridging south of Florida to lift northward with the ridge axis centered through central Florida. On the surface, high pressure located near Bermuda ridges west-southwestward across north-central Florida and into the northeastern gulf. This weather pattern will favor an east- southeast wind flow over the state through the week and into the weekend. This east-southeast wind flow combined with plentiful moisture with PWAT values of 1.7-2.2 inches will support daily scattered showers and storms developing over the east coast and interior and traversing westward through the afternoon and evening hours.

By Monday morning, the upper ridge shifts slightly southward as upper troughing moves through the Mississippi River Valley. The surface ridge will also shift slightly southward with the ridge axis extending through south Florida. This will produce a south-southeast through south-southwest wind flow over the region for the first half of next week. This pattern will favor development of showers and storms earlier in the day along the west coast filling in over the interior during the afternoon and evening hours. Seasonal temperatures expected with daytime highs in the upper 80's along the coast and low to mid 90's over the interior and overnight lows in the 70's.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions and light winds less than 10 knots will prevail outside of showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms possible after 19Z, so will hold VCTS at all terminals between 19- 03Z and PROB30 between 19-22Z.

MARINE

Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

High pressure ridging across central Florida and into the eastern gulf will produce a predominant east-southeast wind flow over the eastern gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend. A daily sea breeze can also be expected turning winds onshore near the west coast each afternoon. With this pattern, the highest rain and storm chances will be during the afternoon and evening hours with storms moving from east to west. Outside of thunderstorms, light winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less can be expected through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Abundant moisture and light southeast winds will continue through the week precluding any fire weather concerns. Daily afternoon and evening showers and storms expected through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 77 91 78 / 80 60 70 50 FMY 92 75 92 75 / 80 60 70 40 GIF 92 73 91 74 / 80 40 70 20 SRQ 92 74 90 74 / 80 60 70 60 BKV 94 70 93 71 / 80 50 70 40 SPG 90 77 89 78 / 80 60 70 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.