textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- A low chance for a few strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon and evening across interior portions of the state. Main threat with any of these storms will be locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe sized hail.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

A cold front remains draped over central FLorida this afternoon and will continue to drift southward. Currently, a line of showers ahead of the front continues to move through central FL with a few showers/storms possible to develop this afternoon and evening along and south of the front as it moves out of the area. Storm prediction Center has placed the southeastern portion of the forecast area in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe storms with the main threat being strong, gusty winds and a slight chance of hail. Increased moisture associated with the front has also aided in the development of sea fog off the SWFL coast that will likely linger throughout the remainder of the day into the evening.

Showers and storms continue to diminish into the evening as dry air moves in. Unfortunately, unlike the previous cold fronts, there will be no noticeable temperature drop following this front. In fact, temperatures will continue to warm throughout the week reaching close to 90 by mid week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Conditions continue to improve through most of the area as the cold front continues to move southward. Though most sites will return to VFR conditions this afternoon, low ceilings are likely to move in overnight once again. Low ceilings and possible patchy fog could impact sites through mid morning before lifting and returning to VFR tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Showers and storms still possible, especially over the southernmost waters in the forecast area, into the evening. Patchy fog continues to linger off the SWFL coast and nature coast this afternoon and could remain into the evening. Conditions begin to improve by tomorrow morning and remain quiet into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Much needed rain continues this afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. RH values remain elevated through the weekend into next week with winds staying less than 15 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 59 79 60 82 / 10 0 0 10 FMY 64 83 62 85 / 20 20 10 10 GIF 58 78 58 81 / 20 0 0 10 SRQ 61 80 59 82 / 10 0 0 10 BKV 51 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 63 79 64 81 / 10 0 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.