textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 105+ degrees continue areawide.

- Generally isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week mainly interior and southwest.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) VFR conditions tonight with light winds as a weakening frontal boundary sags into north Florida Wed morning with isolated TSRA around Tampa Bay terminals after 14Z and into the afternoon interior areas while late afternoon seabreeze TSRA possible in SW FL terminals aft 19Z.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026 We continue to see dryer air with our southwest flow today keeping showers chances at a minimum. Any storms that do form will be mainly inland and on the east coast. We will see a weak frontal boundary push into north Florida and stall along I-4 Wednesday morning. This front will be very weak but could still help to spark a few morning showers and storms along and north of I-4. This front will quickly dissipate by Wednesday evening.

PWs will be back to around 2 inches on Thursday but thanks to riding to our south we will continue to see the best storm chances of the day in the interior and east coast. However, by Friday, an upper level high pressure will start to head our way. This will bring out winds more out of the southeast on Friday finally bringing better storm chances to the west coast of Florida.

As we head towards the weekend this upper level high will be pushing through North Florida and into Alabama. As it does so it shift our winds more northeasterly. This regime still favors storms on the west coast of Florida. The only big difference is more of that shower activity along or south of I-4. Areas north of I-4 typically see drier air. By next Monday we will be sandwiched between the upper level high now in eastern Tennessee and a trough pushing off the east coast of Florida. This will bring us a more neutral flow regime which will favor storms more in the interior.

MARINE

Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Winds will remain out of the west through Thursday around 5 to 10 knots. Winds will start to shift as we end our work week into the weekend but staying around 5 to 10 knots. Winds will be out of the south on Friday and out of the east on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Summertime humidity and heat will continue however we are expecting dry conditions for the west coast of Florida for much of our work week with better storm chances on Friday and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 92 80 93 / 10 40 10 20 FMY 78 94 78 94 / 10 20 10 40 GIF 77 94 75 95 / 10 50 10 60 SRQ 81 92 78 93 / 10 20 20 20 BKV 77 95 73 95 / 40 40 10 20 SPG 81 92 80 92 / 10 30 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.