textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue to run well above average through the middle of next week with some record high temperatures possible.

- There is a low to medium chance of showers and a stray storm each afternoon and evening for the weekend.

- Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible the next couple of mornings.

UPDATE

Issued at 736 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

A sea breeze collision along the western side of the FL peninsula has allowed for the development of scattered showers and storms for most areas near the coast this evening. This activity should remain sub-severe through the remainder of the evening with the primary hazards being brief heavy rainfall, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and lightning. While most of the activity is already on a weakening trend, a few storms may linger through the late evening hours before the main focus will turn to patchy fog overnight across land areas and possibly sea fog in northern marine zones where the larger SST and Td spread will exist. Otherwise, only minor edits were made to PoPs this evening based on recent radar trends but overall the forecast is in good shape as lows drop to the low/mid 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Strong ridging will remain over the area through Wednesday. This will keep the near record breaking high temperatures in place each afternoon with highs near 90 degrees away from the coast. We will once again see some evening showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly closer to the coast thanks to extra moisture in the upper levels. Upper level winds look to start shifting more northerly starting on Sunday. This should to dry things out with shower chances going back down to 0 by Monday.

Our next cold front, if you want to call it that, is expected to push through on Thursday. As it does do we should see a line of showers and storms push through the area sometime during the day. This cold front will help to at least bring temperatures back down to average for next Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 736 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA may bring occasional restrictions at times to most terminals at the start of the TAF period with the exception of KLAL. The precipitation activity will taper off around midnight and some patchy fog may then develop early Sunday morning, mostly in interior areas where some VSBY restrictions could occur. Otherwise, any fog overnight should lift Sunday morning with VFR conditions generally prevailing through the remainder of the day, though some brief restrictions could occur by Sunday evening in interior areas as storm development will be focused more inland tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 124 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Winds will remain out of the southeast around 5 to 10 knot for the rest of the weekend. The main concern for boaters this weekend will be sea fog that could start Sunday afternoon and linger through the early morning hours on Monday. Winds will shift more northerly starting on Monday which should help to dissipate any sea fog that is lingering across the waters. By Wednesday winds will shift southerly again ahead of our next cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Near record breaking heat will continue through Wednesday with RHs staying above critical levels. Some beneficial rain will be possible again this evening mainly along the west coast. After that things will dry out for Sunday through next Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 85 67 86 / 30 20 10 10 FMY 66 87 66 89 / 30 20 20 10 GIF 66 87 66 89 / 30 30 20 20 SRQ 66 83 64 84 / 30 10 10 10 BKV 61 86 59 86 / 40 20 10 10 SPG 71 84 70 84 / 30 10 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.