textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Cold Watch and a Freeze Watch are in effect for much of west central and southwest Florida Saturday night through Sunday morning. The Extreme Cold Watch has been expanded to include interior Charlotte county. - A Gale Watch is in effect for all coastal waters from Saturday morning through Sunday morning.

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions and a high risk of strong rip currents at area beaches this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 VFR conditions are expected. Winds remain generally light and then will become west to northwest. Showers will start to move in from the Gulf late tonight/early tomorrow morning so have added VCSH for some sites and will expand this for the next issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1140 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Not much change to overall forecast philosophy. Another cold start to the day, but not as cold as previous mornings. Areas of frost will occur around sunrise across the nature coast where morning lows will be in the mid 30s. Enjoy the slight warm up today with temps climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies with generally scattered high cloudiness.

A band of cirrus is evident in satellite imagery streaming across the Gulf and central Florida peninsula. This is indicative of the initial strong 30H jet energy which will be riding over the forecast area Friday night and Saturday with 30H winds increasing to the 140- 160 knot range. This U/L energy riding over a strong baroclinic zone along with U/L energy associated with a strong U/L trough/disturbance that is expected to dig sharply over the Tennessee Valley will cause cyclogenesis to occur over the eastern Gulf with an area of showers/rain developing and moving onshore Friday night with highest pops over southwest Florida in region of best available moisture. The broad area of low pressure will move across the Florida peninsula Friday night, but will begin to intensify rapidly as it moves off the mid Atlantic coast on Saturday. Strong Canadian high pressure and an associated arctic airmass will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of this storm system Saturday and Saturday night and will advect frigid air across the forecast area.

A very tight pressure gradient will develop over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula Saturday and Saturday night as there will be a significant pressure difference between the rapidly intensifying coastal storm off the Carolina coast and strong Canadian high pressure which will be centered over the Central/Southern Plains, and moving toward the Lower Mississippi Valley. Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop and a gale watch is currently in effect for the coastal waters of west central and southwest Florida Saturday through Sunday morning. Gusts to Storm Force will also be possible. Strong northwest winds will also develop across much of the forecast area and a wind advisory may be needed Saturday and possibly Saturday night as winds likely will be gusting over 40 MPH, with the greatest threat along the coastal counties. As the area of high pressure builds over the forecast area on Saturday, temperatures will likely be falling (or at best holding steady) across the region during the afternoon hours.

As has been mentioned with previous discussions, there will be a number of hazards associated with this sequence of events that run from a low probability of occurrence to a very high probability of occurrence. Starting with the highest likelihood of occurrence:

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop over the weekend and a Gale Watch is in effect for Saturday through Sunday morning, and this will likely be upgraded to a warning later today. Also, a few gusts to storm force will be possible. - The arctic air will also usher in the coldest temperatures of the year. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for all west central and southwest Florida with the exception of Pinellas, coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Sarasota, Coastal Charlotte, and Lee counties. The criteria for an Extreme Cold Watch is for the potential of wind chill values of 10 degrees or less for Levy, Citrus, Sumter, and Hernando counties...and wind chill values of 20 degrees or less for Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, DeSoto, Highlands, Charlotte, and Lee counties. A Freeze Watch is also in effect for much of the region Saturday night into Sunday morning and Freeze Warnings will likely be needed for much of the forecast area both Saturday night and Sunday night. A hard freeze will be possible across the nature coast Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the lower to mid 20s each night. Temperatures across the interior are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s both nights...with lower to mid 30s near the coast and across southwest Florida. Gusty northwest winds will create wind chills Saturday night in the single digits to teens across the nature coast. Wind chills are expected to be in the teens across the interior, and generally in the 20s elsewhere. The wind is expected to taper off Sunday night, with wind chills generally about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature.

- Temperatures will run about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see some record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning across the region...some low max temperature records set on Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents are expected to develop Saturday through Sunday. There is also a low to moderate probability of high surf.

- The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county to run 1 to 2 feet above astronomical normal tide levels Saturday and Saturday night. This is also in the low to moderate probability of occurrence.

- The strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to develop over the eastern Gulf on Saturday and Saturday night. With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal waters...Gulf effect type light showers. The backside or northern extent of the cloud shield could see temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become light mixed snow/rain showers or light snow showers/flurries. Trajectories would indicate that the clouds may advect locally onshore...with the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation from Citrus to Pinellas/Hillsborough counties. This is a low probability event...but not out of the realm of possibility. It will be a race between whether temperatures can drop into the 30s before the drier air wins out and pushes any light shower activity south of the area. It's common in scenarios like this that drizzle or very light rain gets reported as snow...when in fact surface temperatures don't support that possibility. Clear skies are expected Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to climb into the mid to upper 40s across northern and central areas...around 50 to the lower 50s south. Another frigid night Sunday night as mentioned above with most areas away from the coast or extreme southwest Florida in the 20s. Again, record cold temperatures will be possible both Sunday and Sunday night.

The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but still another cold day across the region with high temperatures from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the nature coast, and around freezing to slightly above freezing across the interior...with upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. Areas of frost will likely develop across inland areas late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.

The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear skies each day.

MARINE

Issued at 103 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through today with relatively benign conditions. As mentioned above, a cold front will push across the waters on Saturday with a strong Canadian area of high pressure building over the waters in the wake of the front. Gale conditions will likely develop on Saturday and Saturday night, with a few gusts to storm force possible. Winds will come down a bit on Sunday, but advisory level winds and seas will likely persist. Winds will subside Sunday night, but it will likely take a longer period of time for the seas to subside.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 103 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 Low level moisture will recover enough today and Saturday for minimum afternoon relative humidity values to remain above critical levels. Much drier air will advect across the region Saturday night and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 53 58 33 / 0 20 40 10 FMY 71 54 62 34 / 0 30 60 10 GIF 72 50 58 25 / 0 20 30 0 SRQ 69 52 61 37 / 0 30 60 10 BKV 71 43 56 22 / 0 20 30 10 SPG 69 56 60 37 / 0 30 50 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy- Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy- Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.