textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Late night/early morning low clouds and fog possible through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026 High pressure will hold over the region today with light easterly boundary layer flow across the Florida peninsula. Atmosphere is fairly stable with a mid level subsidence inversion evident on the TBW 27/00Z sounding. A west coast sea breeze will develop this afternoon, but the increased stability will inhibit convection. However, can't rule out a stray light shower developing under the mid level subsidence inversion during the late afternoon hours along the west coast sea breeze boundary, mainly from inland Manatee county and south...conditions overall are expected to be predominately very warm and dry on Friday under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.

A cold front will push down the Florida peninsula Saturday and Saturday night with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The gradient will tighten in the wake of the front with breezy northeast winds developing Saturday night and Sunday. Easterly flow off the Atlantic riding over the remnant frontal boundary will create a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly south of I-4 on both Sunday and Monday. Drier air aloft will advect over the forecast area by mid week which will decrease the chance of rain.

Temperatures will run several degrees above normal today, and will drop a bit in the wake of the cold front Saturday and Sunday...but will still be near to a few degrees above climatic normals. A gradual warming trend will develop early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026 Patchy early morning low clouds and fog may create LCL MVFR VSBYs and IFR CIGs with the best chance vcnty LAL/PGD. Any fog and low cloudiness will lift shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

MARINE

Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through early Saturday with relatively benign conditions. A cold front will push across the waters Saturday and Saturday night with winds becoming strong and gusty from the northeast. Advisory level winds will be likely in the wake of the front Saturday night and Sunday. Winds and seas will begin to subside Sunday night and will drop below cautionary levels by early Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 65 85 65 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 89 66 88 67 / 10 10 20 30 GIF 88 64 85 65 / 10 10 20 20 SRQ 84 65 85 66 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 86 58 84 59 / 0 0 10 10 SPG 85 68 85 67 / 0 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.