textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue through the weekend and into early next week.

- Becoming breezy areawide with a slight chance of showers interior and southwest Florida over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Little change in overall forecast reasoning through the period. High amplitude U/L pattern will continue for the next several days. Pattern has shifted a bit east with a cut-off low over the four corners area inducing a steep ridge from the western Gulf to the Great Lakes region, and mean trough was located downstream of the ridge off the eastern seaboard. W/V imagery indicates an U/L disturbance near the Florida Keys which is enhancing convection along a stalled frontal boundary across the Florida Straits. Another U/L disturbance, which will become the main feature over the weekend, is located east of the Georgia/Florida border and is sinking south, with a closed U/L low expected to develop over the northern Bahamas over the weekend. The system will very slowly lift northeast by the middle of next week. An U/L ridge will build back over the Florida peninsula in its wake.

At the surface, strong high pressure over the northeast U.S. extends down over the southeast U.S. and Florida. A stationary frontal boundary persists across the Florida straits. The gradient will begin to tighten significantly over west central and southwest Florida today and Sunday due to the strong high to the north and a strengthening stationary boundary to the south due to the U/L energy from the aforementioned disturbances riding over the frontal boundary. This will create gusty northeast winds across the forecast area for the weekend and into early next week, with the strongest winds along the coast and over the coastal waters. A chance of showers will develop over the interior and southwest Florida on Sunday due to showers advecting onshore the east central and southeastern Florida peninsula off the Atlantic in convergent northeast flow north of the frontal boundary. Most of the activity will dissipate as it pushes inland into a drier more stable airmass over west central Florida.

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and dry conditions this morning...with a slight increase in cloudiness this afternoon, mainly over the interior and southwest Florida. Skies will again become mostly clear across the region Saturday night. A chance of showers will develop over the interior and southwest Florida on Sunday. With the area of high pressure holding over the region next week and the U/L low off over the northern Bahamas moving away from the area, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures near climatic normals each day next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions areawide today and tonight with gusty NNE winds.

MARINE

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Advisory level winds will occur for the next several days across all of the waters. The gradient will tighten further over the weekend with gusts to gale force possible on Sunday, with the best chance over the outer waters. The offshore wind flow will also cause tides to run about 1/2 to 1 foot below astronomical levels on Sunday and Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected through the weekend as sufficient low level moisture will be in place to keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 82 68 84 69 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 84 67 86 70 / 0 0 30 0 GIF 83 67 85 68 / 0 10 30 0 SRQ 82 67 85 69 / 0 0 10 0 BKV 82 65 84 66 / 0 10 10 0 SPG 81 68 83 70 / 0 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.