textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will move west across southwest Florida today, while drier air to the north will keep rain chances limited across much of west central Florida.

- Gusty east to northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Dry air has made its way into our area, evident in this morning's sounding with a PWAT value showing 1.6" compared to yesterday's 2.2". When you venture outside today the conditions may feel slightly less humid and maybe even a little pleasant, especially when you factor in the NE breeze. With the dry air over the area, rain chances will be low for the majority of the area. The exception will be over SWFL where enough moisture still lingers leading to the possibility for an isolated shower or storm later this afternoon. Moisture begins to creep back into the area starting tomorrow from the south, increasing rain chances south of I4. Elevated gusty winds will also begin to decrease

Over the weekend and into the beginning of next week an upper level low will drift across Florida and linger in the eastern Gulf. This will help push more moisture over the state, increasing rain chances. Elevated gusty winds will also begin to decrease over the weekend as the pressure gradient begins to lax. A light easterly flow will take over, which will favor showers and storms later in the afternoon into the evening for our area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. A few showers and storms are possible later this afternoon for SWFL which could lead to below VFR ceilings and visibilities. Northeast to East winds remain elevated through the day before decreasing overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Hazardous marine conditions continue through the day as winds and seas remain at advisory levels. Winds are expected to decrease as the weekend approaches.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Main concern over the next couple of days continues to be the elevated northeasterly to easterly winds. Winds begin to decrease as the weekend approaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 90 75 89 / 0 30 10 60 FMY 74 90 74 90 / 10 50 30 80 GIF 73 91 72 90 / 0 30 10 70 SRQ 74 92 74 90 / 0 40 20 60 BKV 70 91 70 90 / 0 20 10 60 SPG 76 91 76 89 / 0 30 10 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.