textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures through Thursday, turning colder Friday and over the weekend. - Little in the way of rain expected through the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Significant changes to the U/L pattern over the next several days. Quasi-zonal flow currently across the CONUS will rapidly transition to a high amplitude pattern by the end of the week with a cut-off low near the Pacific northwest and another over the Great Lakes, with a sharp ridge between the two. Southern stream flow will undercut the overall flow across central Mexico, the southern Gulf, and south Florida. Over the weekend, both of the cut-offs will open up and lift out to the northeast allowing the southern stream flow to shift poleward establishing itself across the southern tier of the U.S. Early next week, the next strong upstream disturbance will dig over the western U.S. and induce downstream ridging through the Plains, with potentially a southern stream disturbance moving across the Florida peninsula, although confidence is currently low in the extended portion of the forecast.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend over the Florida peninsula with a weak gradient in place across the region today. A weak relatively dry frontal boundary will sink south across the area Tuesday night and will stall across the central Florida peninsula on Wednesday with only a slight chance of a shower. Overall, benign conditions through Thursday with periods of high cloudiness over the forecast area associated with the southern stream jet. Temperatures will run near climatic normals each day.

As the U/L pattern amplifies late in the week, an associated cold front will push across west central and southwest Florida Thursday night and Friday with a slight chance of showers across the southern forecast area in region of best available moisture. Much colder drier air will advect over the forecast area in the wake of the front Friday and into the weekend with temperatures expected to be about 10 degrees below climatic normals. Potential Friday and Saturday night for some inland portions of the nature coast to drop into the upper 30s.

As heights rise over the forecast area early next week and easterly flow off the Atlantic modifies the boundary layer, temperatures will recover rather quickly returning back near climatic normals. High cloudiness possible each day as jet cirrus associated with the southern stream advects over the region, and will have to monitor the potential for shower/thunderstorm activity associated with a southern stream disturbance that could move across the peninsula.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 815 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions through the period with winds generally below 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1244 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light winds and rather benign conditions are expected on the waters through Thursday. A cold front will push across the waters Thursday night and Friday with increasing north to northwest winds, but should remain below cautionary levels. Over the weekend, winds will shift to the east and northeast. Winds and seas may increase early next week ahead of an area of low pressure, however, confidence is low in the extended portion of the forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 83 70 82 68 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 86 71 85 70 / 10 10 20 30 GIF 85 69 85 65 / 0 10 10 10 SRQ 83 70 81 70 / 0 0 20 10 BKV 84 65 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 81 71 79 70 / 0 0 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.