textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler weather expected through the weekend. - Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters starting early Monday and continuing into most of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Broad upper level troughing encompasses the eastern half of the U.S. into the weekend. On the surface, an area of low pressure has moved eastward and is located off the New England coastline. The associated cold front extends southwestward through the western Atlantic with the trailing edge of this front extending through central Florida. Extensive cloudiness is stretched across Florida, but for the most part, this front is rain-free. After a cool start this morning with temps in the 50s and 60s, a much cooler air mass will start to advect into the region in the wake of this front through the day today with daytime high temps only reaching the low to mid 70s. Late Friday into early Saturday morning, another secondary cold front will push through the Florida peninsula with the real push of cold air moving into the region in the wake of this front. Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning will dip into the 40s and 50s.

By late Saturday morning, the cold front moves south and east of Florida, allowing for strong polar high pressure to build into the area from the northwest. Clear skies and well below average cool temperatures in the 60s expected during the daytime on Saturday. The coldest night will be Saturday night into Sunday morning with widespread 40s expected across the region, with some inland areas along the Nature Coast even dipping into the upper 30s. By late Sunday morning, strong high pressure near the Great Lakes ridges southward through the southeast U.S. and into the northeast Gulf. This will bring a shift in winds from the north to the northeast, allowing for a slight warm up on Sunday afternoon, with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 70s under sunny skies. Overnight lows into Monday morning will be back up into the mid 40s north to mid to upper 50s central and south.

By Monday morning, upper ridging moves into the southeast U.S. as surface high pressure south of the Great Lakes continues to ridge southward across Florida and into the Gulf keeping sunny skies over the area on Monday. Daytime highs on Monday will reach the mid 70s to around 80 for most of the area. Looking farther to the west, models are continuing to develop a short wave and surface low near the southern coast of Louisiana. Both GFS and ECMWF keep the high pressure north of the area the dominant feature keeping the short wave and possible surface low in the central Gulf and moving it closer to Cuba, rather than directly over Florida. If this pattern holds true, rain chances will remain on the low side for most of next week. Temperatures will moderate closer to average from Tuesday through the end of next week.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

A cold front is moving across the eastern Gulf waters early this morning. A slight chance of a light shower is possible, but most of the area will stay rain-free. Winds increase north to northwest to Cautionary levels today and tonight. Winds will shift to northeast and diminish to around 15 knots late Saturday into Sunday afternoon. A tight pressure gradient sets up over the area producing increasing northeast winds and building seas to Advisory level early Monday morning and continuing through most of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Drier air will overspread the region today and continue through the weekend. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the low to mid 40s on Friday, then mid 30s across much of west central and southwest Florida away from the coast on Saturday. Moisture will rebound starting on Sunday and into next week with no other fire weather concerns expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 50 65 49 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 77 55 68 52 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 75 47 66 48 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 75 53 67 51 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 73 45 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 74 54 65 54 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.