textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat impacts remain high to extreme across portions of the Nature Coast today as feels like temperatures approach 110 degrees.

- Increased threat for locally heavy rain Thursday through the weekend with potential for localized flooding, especially across the Nature Coast.

- Increasing onshore winds will lead to higher seas across coastal waters and a High Risk of Rip Currents at area beaches for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Upper level troughing will remain along the eastern seaboard into Friday then shifts east with the next trough developing over the eastern U.S. over the weekend into early next week. This pattern will keep a west to southwest flow across the region with deep moisture setting up across the area leading to rounds of showers and thunderstorms each day. Primary timing of convection looks to be late night into the morning hours over the coastal waters moving onshore into the coastal counties then developing and spreading inland and to the eastern half of the Florida peninsula by late afternoon and evening each day. However, with so much moisture, precipitable water 2 inches or more, expected to be across the area we could see a shower or thunderstorm at almost anytime.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible through the weekend with the highest amounts expected in coastal areas from around Tampa Bay northward.

By the middle of next week the trough is forecast to weaken with high pressure building in from the east. This will shift the flow back to east to southeast with our more typical afternoon and evening convective pattern returning.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the region this afternoon causing some brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Convection will wind down this evening, then more scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop over the coastal waters and begin moving onshore late tonight possibly affecting TPA, PIE, and SRQ, then all TAF sites from mid-morning Thursday onward. West to southwest winds at 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts will diminish to 5 to 10 knots this evening and overnight, then increase back to 10 to 15 knots by mid-morning Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

West to southwest flow will persist through the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and shifting onshore mainly through the morning and early afternoon each day. Cautionary level winds will occur on portions of the waters for the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Ample moisture will remain across the area, leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, with the highest pops across the nature coast. No fire weather hazards are expected as minimum relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 88 79 89 / 50 70 60 70 FMY 79 90 78 91 / 10 20 10 10 GIF 77 91 77 92 / 40 70 50 80 SRQ 78 89 78 90 / 50 70 40 50 BKV 76 89 75 90 / 60 70 70 80 SPG 80 88 80 88 / 50 70 50 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.