textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week.

- Near record high temperatures through the week.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Persistent pattern continues as upper ridging from the N Carib holds over the region through the week and into the weekend. At the surface, large high pressure in the N Atlantic stretches back WSWward over Bermuda extending across the Deep South keeping generally light to moderate easterly LL flow over the FL Peninsula bringing Atlantic moisture over our local area. Expect daytime heating and a weak Gulf seabreeze to develop producing afternoon isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms daily. Expect some day-to-day variations in POPs location across the region depending on seabreeze strength and depth of moisture.

With stacked ridging, easterly flow, and a weak and late seabreeze expect very warm daytime temperatures well above climatic normals and some near record levels at some sites.

Sun-early next week, the upper ridge is shunted SEward as a longwave trough moves into the eastern U.S. pushing a surface cold front through the Deep South Sun and then the FL Peninsula Mon/Tue with showers and few thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions continue with easterly winds and SCT-BKN cigs AOA 040-050k ft. Still expect the late afternoon seabreeze at the immediate coast to produce ISOLD-SCT mainly SHRA with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs to keep Prob30s in all sites until 00Z then quick clearing aft 01Z through tonight and into Wed with E flow continuing.

MARINE

Bermuda high pressure holds north of the area through the week keeping the light to moderate easterly winds over the waters. The afternoon seabreeze is expected to develop along the coast daily, producing a chance of afternoon and evening showers or a few thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Ridging holds north of the area producing easterly winds over the area through the week, with the afternoon sea breeze mainly at the immediate coast. Showers and a few storms possible during the afternoon into evening hours before diminishing by late evening. Low level moisture remains in place to keep min RH values above critical levels. Moderate winds aloft will keep dispersion index values high in many locations each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 66 86 67 87 / 20 20 10 50 FMY 64 87 65 87 / 20 20 10 60 GIF 64 86 65 87 / 10 20 10 60 SRQ 64 86 65 86 / 20 20 10 60 BKV 59 87 60 88 / 20 20 10 50 SPG 70 86 71 87 / 20 20 10 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.