textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Easterly flow continues with a more typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Slightly below to near seasonal temperatures expected through the week and into the weekend.

- Tropics remain quiet over the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 Showers and storms continue to march westward this afternoon as the ridge axis remains to our north with continued northeast/east flow. Similar to yesterday afternoon, expect some stronger wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range with any of these storms as well as heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Previous discussion (modified)...Over the weekend, broad upper ridging and surface high pressure located between Bermuda and the Carolinas continues to dominate the weather pattern over Florida. Numerous to widespread showers and storms expected on Saturday, then scattered to numerous showers and storms on Sunday.

By Monday, the upper ridge and surface high pressure will nudge slightly southward between Bermuda and the Bahamas. A continued east- southeast wind flow will persist through the first half of next week. Some slightly drier air will move into the region with PWAT values between 1.7 - 2.0 inches expected. This will bring slightly lower rain and storm chances, but still enough for scattered showers and isolated storms developing each afternoon. The ridge axis will shift further south over south Florida for the latter part of next week, bringing a shift in winds to a southwest through westerly direction.

Temperatures and heat indices are expected to stay below advisory criteria through the period with daytime temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 Showers and storms continue to move westward across the local area, with best chances for terminals through 23-00Z or so. Quiet overnight is expected, then storms should start to form near 18Z tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 High pressure continues north of the waters for the next few days, with southeast flow prevailing. Scattered showers and storms are expected each day with the best chances in the late afternoon and evening hours. No headlines are expected, but winds and seas will be higher in or near storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 A northeast to southeast wind flow will continue through the weekend. Abundant moisture will remain across the region allowing for a more typical summertime weather pattern with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 88 77 90 / 20 60 30 40 FMY 76 91 76 92 / 20 60 20 70 GIF 76 90 76 92 / 30 70 30 50 SRQ 75 89 75 92 / 30 50 20 50 BKV 74 90 73 92 / 20 60 40 40 SPG 77 87 78 90 / 30 50 20 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.