textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns with storms that do form.

- Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Ridging remains overhead today which is resulting in light upper level. Interesting enough you would think light flow would result in highest storm chances in the interior when both seabreeze collide. However, climo actually favors the west coast during the afternoon before drifting inland by the evening.

By Tuesday the upper level ridging will shift north resulting in our wind flow turning easterly. This will continue to bring favorable storm chances along the west coast of Florida with timing in the late afternoon and evening hours.

As we head into our Wednesday an upper level low will start to approach the state. Ahead of the low we will see dryer air especially along and north of I-4 where showers will not be expected. At the same time at the surface winds will start to increase our of the east. We will see sustained wind around 15 mph and with gust as high as 25. This upper level low will start to push through on Thursday. As it does so winds will stay elevated as shower chances north of I-4 return. The upper level low will move away from the state on Friday as winds start to calm down. Even though we will see enough moisture aloft for storms both Thursday and Friday the upper level low will bring some drier air at the surface. This will allow morning lows to be slightly cooler with most of us in the low to mid 70's instead of the mid to upper 70's. It might not sound like much but after months of high humidity and warm morning it will be our first small hint of the changing seasons.

By the weekend the upper level low will be gone however the stronger upper level flow out of the southeast will continue. This will result in storm chances favoring the west coast once again through the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Our upper level flow will remain light once again today. This will favor storms on the west coast of Florida in the afternoon and evening hours. Outside of thunderstorms we can expect VFR conditions with winds generally below 10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Deeper layer moisture remain over the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through mid week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 90 77 / 60 20 70 10 FMY 92 76 92 76 / 60 30 70 10 GIF 93 75 91 75 / 60 30 60 0 SRQ 92 76 93 76 / 50 30 70 20 BKV 93 73 92 74 / 60 20 60 10 SPG 90 78 91 78 / 50 20 70 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.