textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a high probability of late night and early morning fog each day through the week, with areas becoming locally dense. Fog will impact both land areas as well as coastal waters.

- Above normal temperatures and humidity continue through the week.

- Cooler weather will return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Broad upper ridging and surface high pressure extends across Florida and into the eastern gulf waters to dominate the weather pattern through the week. This will keep rain-free conditions and above average temperatures across west central and southwest Florida through Saturday. As we have seen the past couple of mornings, fog will be the main weather concern for the next few days. Light winds, clear skies and abundant low level moisture will support areas of dense fog across most of west central and southwest Florida for the next few mornings. Sea fog will also be a concern with warmer air over the cooler eastern gulf waters. This will be closely monitored during the overnight hours with a Dense Fog Advisory possible during the early morning hours.

By Saturday afternoon, the ridge shifts slightly eastward and becomes more southwest to northeast oriented from the Bahamas to Bermuda. Farther to the west, upper troughing and a cold front extends southward through the Mississippi River Valley. As this cold front moves eastward late Saturday into Sunday, there will be increasing chances of showers over the eastern gulf waters and along the Nature Coast, but most of the area from Tampa Bay southward should stay rain-free.

By early Monday morning, the front pushes south and east of Florida as strong high pressure builds into the southeast U.S. and Florida. This high pressure will help usher in some cooler and drier air for the first half of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Fog will be the main aviation concern this morning, with a high probability of impacts across all sites. Highest confidence is with lower visibilities, but some low cigs are likely enough that they were included in the TEMPO groups. Improvement is expected by around 15Z or so, but then another round of fog and low clouds is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 118 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Sea fog is the primary impact across the coastal waters through the week as high pressure keeps light winds and seas in place until Sunday. There is a high probability of visibilities being reduced to less than 1 NM across inshore, nearshore, and offshore waters during the overnight hours. Even during the day, some patches of fog will linger with a light wind flow. On Sunday, the next cold front will move through the region, bringing the next chance of showers and storms and producing a period of elevated winds and seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 118 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Light winds and high relative humidity values will continue to keep overall fire weather concerns low for the week, despite the rain- free conditions continuing. However, there is a high probability that fog will develop each night through the week. If any residual smoke lingers, this could mix with fog to reduce visibilities to near zero, especially during the early morning hours when fog is favored to be the thickest and most widespread.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 60 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 80 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 80 58 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 77 59 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 78 53 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 76 63 79 65 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.