textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 655 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Above normal temps with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees in the afternoons continue through the week. - Increasing shower and storm chances expected from Wednesday into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm activity. Best chances are near I-75 this afternoon, and some will likely be near Tampa Bay area terminals, but chances not high enough for a TEMPO group at this time. Better storm chances are for KLAL and southwest Florida sites and have included TEMPO groups for them. Most activity ends after 02Z or so, then a similar pattern is expected for tomorrow.

SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)

Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Area of high pressure will continue to dominate weather conditions across the peninsula today. Moisture should significantly increase over the next few days. PWAT values will increase to around 2 in. with easterly winds prevailing before shifting onshore along the sea breeze. This combined with daytime heating will support showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The chances will increase from north to south along the I-75 corridor during this time. Afternoon highs will climb up into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. This will bring some areas to experience triple digits heat indices.

On Thursday, high pressure will begin to move east allowing the pressure gradient to relax. This will result in light and variable winds with the sea breeze being able to push further inland. The collisions of the west/east coast boundaries will support showers and storms over interior locations.

LONG TERM (FRI-TUE)

Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Going into the weekend and next week, aforementioned high pressure continues to move south allowing west to southwest winds. Above normal temperature will stay in place with highs in the 90s through the period. Additionally, moisture remains high during the long term. A few showers and storms could develop near the coast early but are expected to become widespread over the interior as the sea breezes collide. Overnight lows will also be very warm in the mid to upper 70s with areas along the coast struggling to drop below 80 degrees.

MARINE

Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Benign maritime weather conditions as high pressure remains in control across the waters. Winds remains fairly light 5-10 knots through the the period. Showers and thunderstorms are possible today inland but will push back towards the coast later in the evening. Going into the weekend, some of the activity could develop early over the waters and push inland through the day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

High pressure remains in control through the period. Minimum humidity values will be well above critical levels. Winds become light and gradually become west to southwest into early next week. Increasing moisture and light winds will keep any fire weather concerns out of fire districts during this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 78 90 78 / 60 40 50 10 FMY 94 75 93 77 / 60 50 50 30 GIF 93 74 93 76 / 70 50 60 20 SRQ 92 76 91 77 / 40 40 40 10 BKV 94 73 93 74 / 60 30 50 10 SPG 93 77 91 79 / 40 40 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.