textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1201 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for the next several days.

- An increasingly wet pattern is expected late in the week through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 Radar remains quite active, although the vast majority of the showers and isolated thunderstorms were located over the coastal waters. Outflow boundaries from convection over land have pushed offshore...and an outflow boundary from convection over the water has been moving east toward the coast. A band of showers/isolated storms has formed just off the coast along the collision zone of these boundaries. The showers/storms may push back toward the coast and move locally onshore with locally heavy rain possible. W/V imagery clearly shows a sharp gradient of deep tropical moisture over the eastern Gulf and much drier air aloft over portions of the Florida peninsula and the western Atlantic. Strong mid level moisture convergence over the eastern Gulf is also aiding convective instability and continued showers/storms along with the boundary collisions. The area of deep tropical moisture over the Gulf with PCPW values of over 2 inches will translate east over the forecast area tonight with the showers/storms likely advecting onshore overnight. Can't rule out local training of showers/storms which could produce heavy rain/flooding of low lying flood prone areas along with significant ponding of water on roadways.

Numerous showers/storms expected on Thursday. Boundary layer winds will shift from the south in the morning to the southwest/west in the afternoon. As morning shower/thunderstorm activity pushes inland, additional showers/storms will likely redevelop in their wake back toward the coast during the afternoon hours and again move inland. Locally heavy rain will be possible as training of cells may occur.

PCPW values will drop a bit on Friday, but will still be in the 1.9 to 2 inch range, more than sufficient for numerous showers and thunderstorms. Onshore flow will promote highest pops over the interior during the mid/late afternoon.

Onshore boundary layer flow will persist over the weekend and into Monday with slightly drier air aloft advecting over the region. NBM POPs appear to be a bit overdone. The overall pattern favors scattered morning/early afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the coastal counties that will push inland during the afternoon hours and increase in areal coverage...with again highest pops inland.

Tuesday looks to be a transition day as deep layer moisture will be on the increase associated with a frontal boundary expected to sink south over the central Florida peninsula. Quite a bit of uncertainty in the longer range of the forecast period as boundary layer flow looks to shift to the east as high pressure builds over the mid Atlantic and extends down over the Florida peninsula. This would shift highest pops back toward the coastal counties for Wednesday and Thursday.

Clouds/rain will likely hold temps down on Thursday near climatic normals...but temperatures should rebound on Friday and run several degrees above climatic normals through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to redevelop overnight over the coastal counties potentially impacting TPA/PIE/SRQ/PGD/FMY/RSW with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs and persisting into Thursday morning. There may be a brief break in activity during the late morning/early afternoon, before additional showers/storms redevelop back near the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 Weak surface high pressure will hold over the waters through much of the forecast period with winds/seas below cautionary levels each day. Main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms which may create locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region through the period which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 77 89 79 / 70 20 20 10 FMY 89 76 91 77 / 50 30 20 10 GIF 90 74 91 76 / 80 30 40 20 SRQ 88 76 90 78 / 60 20 10 10 BKV 89 74 90 75 / 70 20 20 20 SPG 89 78 91 79 / 60 20 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.