textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before a cold front brings in milder temperatures by Sunday.

- A few showers will be possible over the Nature Coast Thursday and Friday, then much better rain chances across the entire region late Saturday through Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 High pressure aloft is centered over Mexico this afternoon with Florida on its northeastern periphery. At the surface, high pressure remains over the region through today, with dry and warm conditions continuing. For tomorrow into Friday, some shortwave energy will move across northern Florida, with a frontal boundary moving into the area and then stalling. This will allow for some showers and storms across the Nature Coast both days, with rain-free conditions continuing elsewhere.

For this weekend, a series of stronger shortwaves will push the frontal boundary through the forecast area, and this will bring our best chance for rain in quite some time. As of now, timing looks like late Saturday afternoon through Sunday with the more widespread rain expected Sunday. Looks like there might be some heavy rainfall as well as some guidance is suggesting, but we will have to see how things play out over the next few days. Some showers will likely linger Monday morning over southwest Florida, then we clear out for mid-week. Temperatures will drop slightly below normal for Sunday with the rain, then top out near normal for Monday before rising once again for the rest of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 High pressure will remain over the waters through today, then shift southward through the end of the week as a frontal boundary approaches northern Florida. This will lead to a few showers over the northern waters Thursday and Friday, then the front moves through for the weekend, bringing higher rain chances Saturday afternoon through Sunday. No headlines are expected until Saturday afternoon, when winds increase to near-advisory levels, then conditions improve starting Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Relative humidity values will drop into the mid to upper 30s each of the next few afternoons, but no Red Flag conditions are expected as winds will remain below criteria. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 72 87 73 87 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 70 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 68 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 71 85 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 64 88 65 89 / 0 10 0 10 SPG 76 86 76 87 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.