textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Critically low relative humidity expected again this afternoon over inland areas. - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return Friday and Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 755 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Cold and frosty start to the day, but with the surface high pressure now off the east coast the southerly flow has begun so we will see a quick warmup with temperatures back into the mid 60s to mid 70s this afternoon. Skies will remain mostly sunny across most of the region with just some high clouds moving by. However, with the southerly flow we will see low level moisture increasing, especially into the northern Nature Coast where we are already seeing some stratocumulus move onshore. Overall the current forecast looks on track with no adjustments needed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 755 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with southeast to south winds around 5 knots this morning becoming southwest around 10 knots by afternoon and then diminishing to around 5 knots and becoming south to southeast after sunset.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

High pressure directly overhead this morning will shift into the Atlantic today. This will shift the winds more southerly resulting in a warming trend. We will see highs return to the low to mid 70's today and back into the 80's Thursday afternoon.

By Friday and Saturday a weaker and more slow moving cold front will push through Florida. The slower motion of this front will result in scattered shower chances both days. This will bring us some much needed rain with totals between 0.5 to 1.5 inches over the 2 days. This won't help to improve our long term drought problems but will help to keep it from getting worse.

Front will exit the state on Sunday as high pressure to our north with keep easterly flow in the place through early next week. This flow will keep the eastern half of the state a little cool with high around 80 degrees, but for us on the west coast we will see highs each day in the low to mid 80's.

MARINE

Issued at 232 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

High pressure overhead will shift out into the Atlantic today. This will shift the winds more southerly around 5 to 15 knots through Thursday. A weak and slow moving cold front will push through on Friday and Saturday. This will result in scattered showers both days with winds shifting to the east on Saturday. By Sunday the front will push to our south shifting winds to the northeast around 5 to 10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 232 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Critically low RHs will remain for one more day as high pressure overhead shift out into the Atlantic. By Thursday winds will shift to the south as RHs start to rise. A slow and weak cold front will push through Friday and Saturday. This will bring some beneficial rain to our area with totals between 0.5 to 1.5 inches. The front will move away by Sunday but RH should still stay well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 54 78 63 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 73 52 82 62 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 73 49 81 60 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 69 51 78 61 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 72 43 80 54 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 69 57 78 66 / 0 0 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.