textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Some slightly drier air is sticking around again today which should limit late afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity. The storms that do form will once again form about 10 to 20 miles away from the coast before slowly drifting west after sunset.

We will start to see moisture increasing throughout the weekend which will also increase storm chances. The highest PW looks to be on Sunday where we could see widespread showers and storms along the seabreeze boundary. The trend will be the same we have been seeing the last few days. Storms will develop along the seabreeze boundary about 10 to 20 miles away from the coast in the late afternoon before drifting towards the west coast in the evening and early overnight hours. Not much changing for next Monday and Tuesday. We will see slightly drier air but still see some scattered west coast storms from the late afternoon through early overnight hours.

By next Wednesday we will start to see a big change in the upper levels. Winds will change southerly bringing some deep tropical moisture over the state. By Thursday an upper level low will develop and cross over from West to East across the state. This will provide the whole state with widespread showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

|Some drier air will limit storm chances today with the best chance at our Southwest Florida Airports. Hi-Res models showing some weakening storms could drift into TPA in the early overnight hours. Besides that expect winds generally out of the east except for a seabreeze right along the coast in the afternoon with VFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Not much changing over the next 5 days. We will continue to see south to southeasterly winds around 5 to 15 knots through next Tuesday. Showers and storms will develop inland in the late afternoon and push towards the coast and into the Gulf from the late evening into the early overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Summertime moisture with afternoon showers and storms will continue through next Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 78 92 77 / 10 30 30 50 FMY 94 76 93 76 / 30 30 60 50 GIF 93 75 93 75 / 10 20 50 50 SRQ 92 76 91 76 / 10 30 20 50 BKV 95 75 94 73 / 10 30 50 50 SPG 93 78 93 78 / 10 30 20 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.