textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will move west across southwest Florida today, while drier air to the north will keep rain chances limited across much of west central Florida.

- Gusty east to northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Currently at the surface, an elongated ridge of high pressure is stretched out along and east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast while broad low pressure holds over the Caribbean Sea. This pattern is favoring breezy east flow across the Florida Peninsula, which is pulling a pocket of dry air into northern Florida from the western Atlantic. As a result, rain coverage this afternoon is expected to be quite limited for mid September, with much of the area forecast to remain rain free. However, moisture will be slightly more favorable over southwest Florida, allowing for a few showers or storms to push west into the area during the afternoon and early evening hours. Moisture will begin to work back into the area Friday and Saturday from south to north, with scattered to numerous storms forecast from around Interstate 4 south on Friday, then across the entire forecast area on Saturday. Otherwise, dew points will be slightly lower for the next few days, mainly over the Nature Coast counties and the northern half of the forecast area, and conditions should feel a bit less humid than the first half of the month did.

During the rest of the weekend and into the first half of next week, atmospheric moisture will continue to build as an upper level low crosses the Florida Peninsula and lingers over the eastern Gulf, with PWAT values building to around 2.0-2.25 inches. As a result, storm coverage and rain totals will continue to rise across the area, with numerous to widespread thunderstorms developing each day. Under light easterly flow, storms will generally develop over the eastern half of the Peninsula during the morning and early afternoon, shifting west into the area during the afternoon and early evening hours.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will hold through the morning, although some isolated MVFR ceilings will be possible, mainly over southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will then move west across southwest Florida through the afternoon hours, potentially causing brief flight category disruptions. Farther north around the Tampa Bay, rain chances are too low to mention in the TAFs, but a stray shower or two cannot be completely ruled out.

MARINE

Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

With high pressure holding north of the waters, breezy east and northeast winds will continue to increase to advisory levels at times today and into tonight. Winds will subside overnight and into Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes, with winds generally forecast to remain around 15 knots or less Friday through early next week. However, thunderstorm coverage will increase through the weekend, bringing locally higher winds and rough seas in the vicinity of daily thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Drier air holding over the area today will limit rain chances for much of the area, although scattered showers and storms will still be possible over parts of southwest Florida, mainly in the afternoon. Moisture will begin to return on Friday from the south, with rain chances returning to much of the area with the exception of the Nature Coast counties. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 74 90 75 / 10 0 40 10 FMY 90 74 90 74 / 40 10 60 20 GIF 90 73 91 72 / 10 0 30 0 SRQ 92 74 92 74 / 10 0 40 20 BKV 90 70 91 70 / 0 0 20 0 SPG 90 76 91 76 / 10 0 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.