textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradually warming temperatures into the weekend.

- Next round of rain chances for the area expected this weekend.

- Cooler temperatures and rain free conditions return early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Westerly flow aloft remains over the peninsula this morning between broad CONUS troughing and ridging south of the state. At the surface, a stalled boundary is located across far S FL/FL Straits with ridging over the SE U.S. extending S into the state. Shortwaves propagating eastward through the flow aloft and across the Srn/SE U.S. into the weekend will favor development of a few frontal waves along the lingering surface boundary as it lifts back north over the peninsula, with increasing moisture and rain chances locally as deeper moisture advects N/E across the area over the weekend. A sharper shortwave digging across the SE U.S. late in the weekend will ultimately shunt the boundary S/E across the peninsula early next week bringing the unsettled conditions and rain chances to an end with cooler drier air filtering into the area as Canadian high pressure settles across the C/E U.S. Cool dry conditions with below normal temps continue into mid week before gradually warming.

After a chilly morning with temps starting out in the 40s and 50s, expect afternoon highs warming into the 70s and lower 80s this afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Temps warm a few degrees more into the weekend with highs in the 70s/80s and lows mainly in the 60s, while cloudiness gradually increases in conjunction with the aforementioned weekend rain chances. Post-frontal temps early next week cool noticeably with morning lows dropping into the 40s/50s with a few 30s possible north, and afternoon highs in the 60s/70s.

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Easterly winds today gradually shift to southerly Friday into the weekend with increasing rain chances across the waters for the weekend. A frontal boundary pushes southward across the waters late weekend into early next week followed by drier air and northerly winds increasing to near cautionary levels briefly before diminishing into mid week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels. High pressure holds over the area today before a frontal boundary and associated rain chances gradually expand from far northern and Nature Coast locations on Friday into central and southern locations over the weekend before diminishing on Monday as high pressure with a drier air mass builds into the area behind the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 64 80 69 / 0 0 0 20 FMY 83 64 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 80 61 84 66 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 80 62 80 68 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 79 56 82 62 / 0 0 10 30 SPG 78 66 78 70 / 0 0 0 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.