textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 822 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- There is a low risk for mainly urbanized flooding this afternoon and evening for portions of West Central and Southwest Florida. The greatest potential for this to materialize is in SWFL, where there is a 20% chance that rainfall totals may exceed 3 inches.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns.

- Warm and humid conditions persist, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees.

UPDATE

Issued at 822 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

As the sun rises, high clouds continue to stream from east to west across the Florida peninsula. These clouds are from thunderstorms that continue off the Atlantic coast this morning. Meanwhile, a additional showers and thunderstorms continue off the FL West Coast this morning, thanks to remnant boundaries that lingered in coastal waters overnight.

Over land, however, conditions are off to a quiet start. There is still very much a summer atmosphere in place and broad surface ridging, which means that conditions continue to be very humid to start and winds are light. Temperatures bottomed out in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, and dewpoints remain in the upper 70s.

The light flow is really the main theme for the day. The mean 1000- 850 mb flow is hinting at a SSE flow - but the flow is so light that the west coast sea breeze boundary should have no real issue propagating inland today. It's slightly stronger in SWFL, so there will probably be less inward propagation. This favors the best rain chances near the coast from the Sarasota area northward from around 1PM to 4PM, inland from 3PM to 8PM, and SWFL from 1PM onward until 8PM. With SWFL seeing the longest window and probably the greatest amount of boundary collisions, there is a low-end potential for localized flooding to impact communities in SWFL. Gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph will also be possible in the most intense storms. There is just enough of a hint of drier pockets in the mid-levels that this could take place.

Overall, the forecast looks good this morning. No changes are needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Our Saturday will look very similiar to Friday with southerly wind flow and PWs above 2 inches. This will keep most of the shower activity east of 75 with development in the late afternoon and evening hours.

As we head into Sunday and Monday ridging will shift closer to the state bringing light flow to the area. This regime results in slow moving storms where outflows are the main focus for redevelopment. This regime also brings higher chances for localize flooding as storms tend to "sit" over an area.

As we head into Tuesday an upper level low will start to approach the state as high pressure moves away. This will bring our winds easterly again and result in shower activity closer to the coast in the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Wednesday this upper level low will be be getting closer to the state. Out ahead of it we will see some drier air especially north of I-4 where PW could drop below 1.5. Winds will also increase as sustained winds could reach around 15 knots and gusts close to 30. Moisture will start to return on Thursday as the upper level low pushes through the state. Winds will calm down slightly to around 10 knots with gust around 20 knots. Shower chances north of I-4 will start to return.

By Friday the upper level low will push into the Gulf as the flow switching southerly once again. At the surface winds will come back down to normal levels as moisture remains high. This will bring us back us right back to the same conditions we saw yesterday with storms mainly east of 75.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 822 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Thunderstorms are expected to initially develop near the coast today in the early afternoon, transitioning inland by mid-afternoon in the Tampa Bay and central interior areas. Across SWFL, a slightly stronger flow still favors early afternoon thunderstorm development in the vicinity of terminals. However, as the east coast sea breeze moves westward and eventually collides with the west coast sea breeze near SWFL terminals, this could lead to more intense storms that linger into the evening. There is also a higher potential for microbursts and stronger winds in association with the thunderstorms in general across SWFL. A slightly drier pattern settles for the next couple days after today, reducing the potential impacts especially for northern terminals for the remainder of the weekend and early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Winds will remain light for the weekend and into our Monday with scattered storms chances. As we head into our Tuesday an upper level in the Atlantic will start to approach the state. This will increase the winds out of the east 5 to 10 knots. As this upper level low continues to approach the area on Wednesday we will see winds quickly increasing to 20 to 25 knots by the afternoon. These winds will remain elevated through Thursday as the upper level low pushes through the state.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Deeper layer moisture will remain over the state which will bring scattered showers and storms over the next 5 days. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 822 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

With pockets of heavy rainfall over the last couple of weeks, soils have begun to become more saturated in the areas where heavier rainfall has occurred. The most notable soil saturation has taken place across portions of SWFL, where once again there is a higher probability for heavier rainfall to occur. This favors a higher potential for localized flooding when compared to the rest of the region. It also means that a shorter duration of heavier rainfall may be capable of producing some flooding.

Given the scattered nature of summertime convection, conditions are not uniformly saturated areawide. In fact, most areas outside SWFL have not yet seen soils reach saturation. Thus, outside urbanized areas and portions of SWFL, the overall threat for flooding remains low.

Additionally, conditions continue to be monitored on some of the more rainfall-sensistive rivers mainly in SWFL. The most notable one with potential impacts is Horse Creek. The current forecast has the river reaching minor flood stage in the next couple days. However, this is still contingent on at least another half an inch or so of rainfall occurring in the basin. If the rainfall misses the basin, then Horse Creek probably won't rise at all. This is true for other rivers in the area as well: if rainfall occurs in the basin, then the river will respond. If it misses, flows and thus current river stages should remain largely unchanged.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 78 89 78 / 40 20 50 10 FMY 91 77 90 76 / 60 30 70 20 GIF 93 75 92 75 / 60 30 60 20 SRQ 91 77 91 77 / 40 20 50 30 BKV 92 74 91 74 / 40 10 50 10 SPG 90 79 89 79 / 40 20 50 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.