textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Next cold front brings rain late this evening into Thursday.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected on Thursday.

- Next shot of freezing temperatures on Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Temperatures are finally getting back into the 70's this afternoon but it will be a short lived warm up as a cold front is approaching the area. This front will push through overnight bringing a line a showers through the area. Behind it the cold air will quickly filter back in again. Thursday will once again be a day were the high temperatures will be in the morning hours as temperatures drop after that. Temperatures will continue to drop through the overnight period with freezing temperatures in Levy and Citrus counties on Friday morning with mid to upper 30's everywhere else away from the coast. Temperatures will be struggling to get into the 60's by the afternoon.

Ridging across the southeast will keep us dry with plenty of sunshine. The drier air will bring a big swing in temperatures from morning lows to afternoon highs. We will wake up in the upper 30's and 40's in the morning but will warm up into the low to mid 70's in the afternoon.

As high pressure moves off into the Atlantic the warm up will continue with highs back into the mid to upper 70's by next Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions at least through 06z. After that a cold front will push through the area bring a line of showers. The showers will not be the biggest concern. It will be the lower CIGS as the showers start to exit. MVFR and IFR CIGS are expecting for at least a few hours after showers start to move out of the area.

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

A cold front will be pushing through overnight. This will quickly shift winds to the northwest and start increasing becoming 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30 knots. These wins will slowly come down Thursday night but still be around 10 to 15 knots on Friday. High pressure to our north will keeping winds northerly around 10 to 15 knots on Saturday before shifting east and calming down to 5 to 10 knots on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

A cold front will be pushing through overnight bringing a line of showers to the area. By Friday drier air will be filtering keeping RHs around critical levels in the afternoon for Friday and the weekend. However, winds will stay below criteria for a red flag warning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 52 60 43 / 0 80 50 0 FMY 73 55 65 42 / 0 30 80 0 GIF 74 52 62 37 / 0 70 70 0 SRQ 69 53 62 44 / 0 70 70 0 BKV 72 44 59 33 / 0 90 40 0 SPG 69 55 62 48 / 0 80 50 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.