textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather with rain-free conditions and lower humidity expected through midweek.

- Moisture increases late in the week leading to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Pleasant weather continues today with warm dry conditions as high pressure holds over the area. Moisture to the south of Florida will slowly begin to drift north. This will increase rain chances over SWFL beginning tomorrow afternoon. Coverage will increase over the region Friday as a cold front approaches. The cold front is expected to move across the southeast U.S. Friday before finally stalling over central FL over the weekend. Dry air will move in north of the stalled boundary, keeping any rain chances to the south. Current models still have some inconsistency as to where that divide will be.

High temperatures through the remainder of the week will continue to be just above normal for this time of year. However by the weekend, with extra cloud cover and possible showers, highs are expected to run slightly below normal, with models suggesting low to mid 80s, with northern areas possibly staying in the upper 70s. Strong NE winds are also expected over the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens up.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Clouds will begin to increase tomorrow, especially over SWFL as moisture increases. Wind remain out of the east to northeast.

MARINE

Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Quiet marine conditions today will slowly begin to deteriorate as the weekend approaches. A cold front is expected to move across the waters Friday before stalling across central Fl over the weekend. This will increase rain/storm chances. The pressure gradient will also tighten, increasing the northeasterly winds to advisory levels over the weekend. Current models show possible gale force winds, especially Sunday. We will continue to keep an eye on the forecast trends as the weekend approaches.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as low level moisture keeps RH values above critical. However, strong northeasterly winds over the weekend will likely increase dispersion rates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 72 89 75 88 / 0 10 10 50 FMY 74 92 76 90 / 0 50 20 60 GIF 71 91 74 91 / 0 20 10 60 SRQ 71 90 74 88 / 0 30 20 50 BKV 67 90 72 90 / 0 0 10 50 SPG 73 88 76 87 / 0 20 10 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.