textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 137 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026
- Rain coverage will be limited today, then chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms increase Thursday through the weekend.
- Afternoon temperatures will top out in the mid 90s each afternoon through the rest of the week, with heat index values expected to reach up to 100-110.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Southwesterly winds with PW around 1.7 will continue today and tomorrow. This will result in lower rain shower chances with the highest totals inland and along the east coast. The strong southwesterly flow will result in winds coming off the warm Gulf water overnight. This will keep overnight lows near 80 degrees near the coast. This warmer start coupled with lower shower chances will result in above average temperatures and humidity. This will bring heat index near heat advisory criteria both tomorrow and Friday.
Starting on Friday we will see an increase in moisture with PWs reach around 2 inches. This will bring higher rainshower chances. However, we will still be in southwesterly flow. This will result in much of the shower activity staying inland and along the east coast.
Drier air will start to filter in on Monday lower rain shower chances as we continue to see southwesterly flow. Flow looks to turn more neutral on Tuesday which would favor storms closer to the west coast however the drier air in place will continue to keep our shower chances low.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026
VFR conditions with west to southwest winds through the period.
MARINE
Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Winds are expected to pick up tomorrow morning and afternoon with speed peaking around 15 to 20 knots out of the southwest. Winds will start to go back down by Thursday night and stay around 5 to 10 knots out of the southwest for Friday and Saturday. Winds drop down even lower on Sunday to just around 5 knots.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Summertime humidity and heat will continue however we are expecting dry conditions for the west coast of Florida for much of our work week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 82 92 82 / 10 10 20 0 FMY 94 80 95 80 / 10 10 20 10 GIF 96 77 96 78 / 20 10 50 10 SRQ 93 81 93 81 / 10 10 20 10 BKV 95 78 95 78 / 10 10 30 10 SPG 92 82 93 82 / 10 10 20 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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