textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Near record warm high temperatures over inland areas each day through the weekend.
- Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Friday through Sunday across the northern Nature Coast and interior.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026
Another day with above average temperatures and mostly rain free conditions expected. The only exception will be over the Nature Coast as a weak frontal boundary moves into North Florida leading to a few isolated showers and possible storms. As the frontal boundary slowly drifts south on Friday, rain chances slightly increase, especially in the interior. The front drifts back north Sunday before a stronger front approaches the area Monday. Shower and storm chances increase ahead of the front Monday. Dry air will filter in behind the front, unfortunately cool air will not. Temperatures will still remain above normal following the front as high pressure moves back over the area by midweek.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will mostly be out of the southwest with a shift more westerly as a sea breeze develops. Some patchy fog has the potential to develop, but confidence on impacts to terminals was too low to include in TAFs at this time.
MARINE
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026
Quiet conditions continue today as winds and seas remain low. A weak cold front approaches the northern waters and lingers over the next couple of days increasing winds. A stronger frontal boundary moves over the area Monday into Tuesday. A few showers and storms are expected to move over the waters as the front moves SE. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary or advisory levels.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026
Dry air lingers over the area, with RH values dipping near critical values. However moisture slowly begins to increase north to south as the weekend approaches. A stronger cold front moves through Monday into Tuesday, and dry air will once again filter in behind it.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 76 90 75 / 0 10 10 0 FMY 91 72 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 95 73 93 74 / 0 0 20 0 SRQ 87 74 88 73 / 0 0 10 0 BKV 91 73 92 70 / 0 10 10 0 SPG 88 76 90 76 / 0 0 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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