textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions continue today.

- Increased rain chances today through Tuesday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

A frontal boundary draped over the S FL peninsula today coupled with high pressure centered over the E Seaboard will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies under breezy to gusty E/NE winds as Atlantic moisture and isolated showers and potentially a few storms stream westward across the area through the day, generally along and south of I-4 with lower chances northward. Cloud cover will limit high temps to the upper 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure center shifts into the NW Atlantic for Mon-Tue allowing the pressure gradient and associated surface winds to weaken, while the ridge axis extends W/SW across the SE U.S. north of the local area. Low level winds gradually veer to E/SE while lingering moisture will favor scattered to potentially numerous showers along with a few thunderstorms focusing across the W FL peninsula during the afternoon and evening, particularly on Monday, as highs warm into the mid 80s.

The ridge axis remains in place north of the local area through the remainder of the week with continued E/SE flow, with lower PoPs supporting isolated aftn/eve shower chances while highs warm further into the mid/upper 80s to around 90 for a few locations, potentially challenging a record high or two at area climate sites.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

MVFR cigs persist early this morning across most W FL terminals with VCSH at SWFL terminals likely continuing through the morning into the afternoon. Cigs lift to VFR late morning while winds remain elevated E/NE 10-15 knots with higher gusts through the afternoon before gradually diminishing in the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Tight pressure gradient remains over the coastal waters this morning with advisory level conditions continuing as hazardous winds and seas are expected through much of today before diminishing to cautionary levels this afternoon into evening. Gradient gradually weakens with winds and seas slowly subsiding through the early week period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

High pressure centered north of the region will favor continued breezy to gusty east to northeast winds today with high dispersions this afternoon, however minimum RHs are expected to remain above critical levels. Showers and a few storms possible the next few days before chances diminish into mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 82 68 84 68 / 20 10 50 10 FMY 83 66 85 66 / 50 10 60 10 GIF 79 66 83 66 / 30 10 50 10 SRQ 83 67 85 66 / 30 10 50 10 BKV 81 61 85 61 / 20 10 50 10 SPG 83 71 85 71 / 20 10 50 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.