textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainy conditions will continue through Thursday.

- Gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue through at least Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Currently at the surface, a broad area of high pressure sits over the eastern seaboard, while a surface low continues to develop east of Florida along the stalled frontal boundary. As this low pulls away to the northeast today and Thursday, a moist airmass will continue to stream into the Florida Peninsula from the Atlantic along and north of that stalled front. This setup will result in continued breezy and rainy conditions, with scattered to numerous showers in the forecast for today and Thursday. Despite the high rain chances, the precipitation is forecast to be rather light, with 48-hour QPFs of around a half an inch or less across west central and southwest Florida, with the greatest rain chances and QPFs generally over the interior. That said, a few lucky spots could see slightly higher totals if deeper convection manages to push far enough west into the forecast area. With the cloudy skies and breezy northeast winds, temperatures will remain several degrees below normal this afternoon, then temperatures will gradually warm up Thursday through the weekend as sunshine starts to return.

Friday through early next week, the surface ridge will settle south into Florida, bringing drier and sunnier conditions, with highs warming back up into the mid to upper 80s by the start of next week. After some slight chances of rain Friday, rain chances during the weekend and early next week are forecast to be near zero.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 818 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Stalled out boundary will continue to make it a tricky aviation forecast today. We will have intermittent MVFR and IFR CIGS through much of our daytime hours with the best chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Windy conditions out of the northeast will continue with gusty up to 25 knots through the day.

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

High pressure north of the waters and a developing area of low pressure southeast of Florida are keeping breezy northeast winds in place, with Small Craft Advisory conditions lasting through Thursday night, and occasional periods of gusts up to near gale force possible. Rain chances will also remain elevated today and Thursday. Winds and seas will slowly improve Friday through the weekend, although easterly surges will bring winds back up to cautionary or perhaps advisory levels each night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

No humidity concerns as deep moisture produces scattered to numerous showers and a few storms today and Thursday. Breezy winds will produce high dispersion indices each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 67 81 65 / 50 30 40 0 FMY 82 67 82 67 / 50 30 50 10 GIF 76 65 79 63 / 60 30 60 10 SRQ 79 66 81 65 / 50 30 40 0 BKV 77 61 80 59 / 50 30 40 0 SPG 79 69 82 68 / 50 30 30 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.