textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area today and tonight, with some heavy rainfall possible.

- Increased rain coverage will continue Monday and Tuesday, mainly over the interior.

- Gusty winds over the coastal waters will continue to cause rough marine conditions through Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Early morning water vapor and IR satellite imagery is showing a shortwave trough over the northeastern Gulf swinging into the Florida Peninsula today, bringing increased atmospheric moisture and a period of disturbed weather. As strong surface high pressure holds north of the state, breezy easterly flow will continue across the area today, with showers and light rain continuing to stream west into the forecast area through the morning, then scattered to numerous showers and storms will shift onshore from the Gulf this afternoon and evening as the shortwave continues to build in. Cooler mid level temperatures in the vicinity of the shortwave will result in steeper lapse rates, which should allow for increased chances of thunder today, but with unidirectional wind shear, the main storm threat other than lightning will be for some areas of heavy rainfall. This shortwave is forecast to cut off from the main flow and linger over Florida Monday and into early Tuesday, with increased rain chances continuing.

By midweek, an upper level trough will be crossing the Mississippi River Valley into the eastern US, with a developing surface low forecast to lift northeast through the Great Lakes through late in the week. This system will develop a weak cold front that will sweep through the southeastern US Wednesday before making a dry frontal passage through the Florida Peninsula Thursday night and Friday. While temperatures will briefly warm up ahead of this front Tuesday through Thursday, cooler air will fill in behind the front, with overnight lows forecast to drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s by Saturday morning.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Spotty MVFR ceilings and isolated showers will continue to be possible through the morning hours. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase across the area this afternoon and evening, with periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and gusty winds possible with the storms. Periods of rain will continue overnight along with widespread stratus, bringing longer durations of low MVFR or IFR ceilings.

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

High pressure holding north of Florida is keeping the persistent breezy easterly flow in place through early next week. Winds will continue to run at Small Craft Exercise Caution levels through at least early Tuesday, approaching Small Craft Advisory levels at times. In addition, an upper level disturbance will result in increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms today and Monday, producing locally higher winds and hazardous boating conditions. Wind speeds will subside Tuesday through the rest of the week as the pressure gradient begins to relax.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Deep moisture will hold across the area today and Monday, bringing increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy east and northeast winds will continue each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 82 70 81 71 / 60 50 50 20 FMY 84 71 83 71 / 70 60 60 20 GIF 82 70 82 70 / 70 60 60 30 SRQ 82 69 81 70 / 60 50 50 10 BKV 82 68 82 68 / 60 50 40 10 SPG 79 70 79 71 / 60 50 50 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.