textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Very limited rain chances area wide through Monday, with chances returning on Tuesday across southern locations. - Drier and relatively cooler air mass remains across the area through Monday before gradually moderating.

UPDATE

Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Another quiet, mild evening is underway with a few high level clouds streaming from west to east across the Florida peninsula. With light winds, temperatures are now beginning to fall into the 70s. Efficient radiational cooling is expected, meaning that temps should once again dip into the low-to-mid 60s, except right at he coast where temperatures will likely hold in the low 70s. Overall, conditions are consistent with the current forecast. No changes are needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026 A low pressure system continues off the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon with weak high pressure over Florida. Some higher clouds continue to stream across the region, but otherwise the weather across the region is similar to yesterday, with relatively drier air keeping more comfortable conditions in place. As we head into tomorrow and the next few days, low pressure over the northeast will continue to pull away as another system develops over the southwestern U.S. The Atlantic surface high will re-establish north of the state, with a southeast to east low-level flow setting up across the local area starting Tuesday. This will allow temperatures to moderate back to near-normal values and will also increase moisture, bringing a return to daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday into next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow as high pressure remains in control. Beginning on Tuesday, moisture begins to rebound, with a few showers and thunderstorms likely across SWFL in the afternoon. From Wednesday onward, expecting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the entire area, with impacts likely at terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Quiet marine, mostly rain-free conditions continue across coastal waters over the next several days as high pressure remains in control. Winds become E to SE by mid week with showers and storms returning, likely favoring coastal areas in the afternoon and evening hours as interior activity spreads westward to the coast and offshore over the waters. As winds increase mid week, the seas will build in response. Mariners operating small craft should anticipate the need to exercise caution late in the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026 Fire weather concerns remain low for the next few days. After a relatively dry couple of days, moisture will slowly increase this week, bringing a return of shower and thunderstorm chances, especially for Tuesday and beyond.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 88 72 89 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 69 89 72 88 / 0 0 10 50 GIF 65 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 70 87 72 88 / 0 0 0 30 BKV 65 88 69 89 / 0 10 0 10 SPG 73 86 74 87 / 0 0 0 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.