textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for eastern portions of the forecast area today and tomorrow afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 838 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

There are two separate areas of convection on recent regional radar imagery with one area around the Lake Okeechobee region in the vicinity of the sea breeze collision and the other is the remnants of a MCS around the northeastern Gulf and FL Panhandle. The precipitation activity around the Lake Okeechobee region will taper off over the next few hours but the activity across north FL should hold together overnight as a fairly widespread area of showers and isolated embedded storms. This activity will stay mostly north of the TBW CWA tonight but rain chances will increase into Tuesday as a frontal boundary slides slowly southward across central FL and deeper moisture gets drawn into the region. Overall, only minor adjustments were made to PoPs this evening based on latest hi-res guidance and radar trends, but no other adjustments expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

An unsettled pattern expected over the next couple of days as a stationary boundary lingers across central FL, while another frontal boundary begins to push south into northern FL this afternoon. Decent instability coupled with the warm/moist atmosphere will lead to afternoon showers and thunderstorms. As the west coast sea breeze develops, showers and storms will push further east with most coverage today mainly inland and further east. There is a marginal risk (1 of 5) of storms becoming severe this afternoon. Main hazards will be gusty, damaging winds and hail.

Conditions improver temporarily overnight. However, as the second front sags further south into the area Tuesday afternoon, shower and storm coverage will begin to increase. Moisture lingers over the area into Wednesday. However, dry air will filter in by Thursday, reducing rain chances for the remainder of the week.

Temperatures through the week will be near normal through Wednesday due to cloud coverage and rain. However, as conditions dry out Thursday, high temperatures rise above normal once again.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the evening and through the overnight with winds falling to less than 5 kts tonight. A cold front moves through central FL on Tuesday with scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA possible in the late morning to afternoon hours before most activity spreads inland by the evening. Occasional flight restrictions may occur, particularly during periods of heavier precipitation, but overall aviation impacts should be brief with VFR conditions expected outside of precipitation activity.

MARINE

Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Winds will remain below headline criteria through the period. However scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the waters beginning tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. Locally higher winds and rough seas will accompany storms as they move through. Quiet conditions return by Thursday as high pressure settles in.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Fire hazards remain minimal over the next couple of days as ample moisture lingers over the area. Dry air moves in Thursday, dropping RH values through the end of the week into the weekend. Areas north of I4 could drop below critical RH values Friday and Saturday. Winds will remain below 15 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 89 73 87 / 0 60 30 30 FMY 75 93 73 91 / 10 30 30 40 GIF 73 89 71 88 / 10 80 30 60 SRQ 74 90 71 88 / 0 30 20 20 BKV 70 89 66 88 / 10 70 30 30 SPG 77 91 74 89 / 0 40 20 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.