textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 654 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Be prepared to alter outdoor events if lightning and thunder are seen or heard.

- The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will range from late night and morning near the west coast then shifting inland into the interior by late afternoon and evening each day through Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 654 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the period with southwest to west winds. Rain chances remain low for all sites except for KLAL, which could see scattered storms this afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Through Tuesday, a weak surface ridge will hold over southern Florida as a series of coastal lows develop to the northeast of the state over the Atlantic and pull away to the east. This pattern is setting up light westerly flow, keeping deep moisture in place and favoring a few showers or storms shifting onshore from the Gulf during the late night and morning hours, then scattered to numerous showers and storms building over the interior during the afternoon and early evening hours. Under the westerly flow, the highest rain totals are expected to be over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and the interior, with many west coast locations remaining largely rain free through the first half of the week.

By Wednesday, an upper level trough/cutoff low will be ejecting off the Carolina coast, dragging a frontal boundary south into the Florida Peninsula. Deep moisture pooling south of this front will lead to higher rain chances Tuesday night and Wednesday, with numerous to widespread convection forecast across the area. Winds will turn to northeasterly behind the front and increase slightly on Wednesday, then become more easterly by Thursday through the rest of the week. These easterly winds will pull in drier air resulting in lower rain chances during the second half of the week, particularly over the northern half of the area. Under easterly flow, what storms that do develop will generally form over the interior during the mid afternoon and build towards the west coast through the late afternoon and early evening with the sea breeze collision. Otherwise, the front will bring in slightly cooler and less humid air, with afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday, then warming back up to the upper 80s and low 90s by Friday and Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Westerly flow will hold through Tuesday night, with a few showers and storms developing over the coastal waters and shifting inland during the overnight and morning hours each day. Thunderstorm activity will then move inland during the late morning and afternoon hours each day before re-developing over the waters overnight. A front will push south into the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday, turning winds to out of the north and northeast and increasing wind speeds to near advisory levels by late Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Westerly flow will continue through the first half of the week, with a few showers and storms shifting onshore from the Gulf during the morning hours and then more numerous storm coverage building east into the interior during the afternoon and evening hours. Relative humidity will not drop to critically low levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 40 10 FMY 92 79 92 79 / 10 10 20 10 GIF 90 77 90 77 / 40 10 50 10 SRQ 90 79 90 79 / 10 10 40 10 BKV 90 77 89 77 / 30 30 40 20 SPG 91 81 91 80 / 20 20 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.