textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average and near-record temperatures will continue throughout the week and into the weekend.

- Rain chances will remain at 20% to 30% on Wednesday, with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances at 40% to 50% starting Thursday and continuing through the end of the week.

- Patchy fog will be possible Wednesday morning along inland regions of Central Florida and along the Nature Coast.

UPDATE

Issued at 746 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Showers developed earlier this afternoon across inland Central Florida and moved toward the I-75 corridor. The only remaining convection is now off the SWFL coast, and these showers will slowly continue to dissipate. Sufficient low-level moisture and marginal forcing allowed for isolated to scattered pockets of showers to develop the last few days. Additionally, easterly low- level winds have contributed to showers developing across the region. These showers have a summertime feel, developing during the early-afternoon and dissipating by late-evening as a result of the diurnal cycle. As a result of low-level easterly winds, wind gusts will increase briefly this evening along the coastline as resistance to the easterly flow driven by the thermal gradient wanes, and temperatures become more uniform overnight. Wind speeds and wind gusts will lower overnight once this takes place.

Isolated to scattered showers will develop once again tomorrow (Wednesday) and will be reminiscent of today. Low-level easterlies alongside sufficient moisture and marginal forcing will support shower development during the afternoon hours as temperatures warm to the mid to upper-80s. It will continue to feel like summertime across the region as temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 80s for the next several days due to a persisting upper- level high pressure system situated over the state. Some locations may experience record high temperatures Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday with no cooldown in sight.

Looking ahead to the end of the workweek, rain chances will increase as surface winds become more southeasterly across the region. This is partially due to changes in the upper-level flow. Currently there is zonal flow, but by late Thursday into Friday, the upper-level flow becomes more meridional as an upper-level trough develops along the Southwest and Rockies. Mid-level moisture will increase across Central Florida and seabreeze interactions can support additional showers and a few thunderstorms. Greatest rain chances will be found along inland West-Central Florida for both Thursday and Friday. PoPs are currently at 40% to 50% on Thursday, and PoPs are at 30% to 40% on Friday.

Overall, the forecast is on track this evening.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 746 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Patchy ground fog may develop overnight across the interior. The best window for fog will run from 09Z to shortly after sunrise between 12Z and 13Z. However, chances of significant impacts are too low for mention in TAFs at this time. Additionally, there are low chances of showers tomorrow afternoon between 20Z and 24Z, but with some slightly drier air tomorrow, the probability of impacts is also too low for mention. Coverage of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will increase late in the week as moisture increases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

We are looking at a pretty stagnant weather pattern over the next 7 days with high pressure over the Atlantic helping to bring strong ridging over the area. During this time we will see a strong easterly flow at the surface which will help to bring the warmest temperatures in the state to the west coast. Highs each day should be reaching the mid to upper 80's.

The only main difference over the next 7 days is in the upper level flow which will shift southerly Thursday through Saturday. As it does so PWs will be going up peaking at around 1.5 on Friday. This will help to bring some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area during that time frame. With the easterly flow in place at the surface we can expect the highest concentration of shower activity to be on the west coast of Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 138 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

We are looking at a pretty stagnant weather pattern through Saturday with strong ridging over the area. Winds will remain out of the east and northeast around 5 to 10 knots each day. Higher moisture will allow for some isolated showers pushing off the west coast each evening from Thursday through Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Ridging over the area will keep easterly flow in place through Saturday. Moisture will increase Thursday through Saturday bringing some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon and evening with the highest concentration over the west coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 65 86 67 86 / 0 20 0 50 FMY 66 87 67 87 / 10 30 10 50 GIF 64 85 66 86 / 0 20 0 60 SRQ 64 86 66 85 / 0 20 0 40 BKV 59 87 60 87 / 0 10 0 40 SPG 68 84 70 85 / 0 20 0 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.