textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the Nature Coast today. Marginal risk for the remainder of West Central Florida and the interior.

- Flood Watch in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 8 PM this evening.

- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Upper level troughing over the eastern U.S. will weaken during the first half of the week then high pressure building back in from the Atlantic Ocean by late in the week. Meanwhile at the surface the stalled frontal boundary will remain across the southeast states with high pressure ridge holding south of the area through Tuesday. The surface ridge will lift north stretching across the region during midweek, then north of the region by late week.

For today and Tuesday, the southwest to west flow will persist with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing to move across the region. Highest chances remain across the Nature Coast closer to the boundary where the deepest moisture resides. Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility with any of the convection, but the primary area for potential flooding will continue along the Nature Coast where the Flood Watch remains in effect today.

During the second half of the week as the surface ridge lifts north winds will shift to east to southeast. Plenty of moisture will continue across the region with more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, but the timing will shift back to our more typical afternoon and evening hours.

Daytime highs will remain near to a few degrees below normal with lows near to a couple of degrees above normal to start the week. Then as the east to southeast flow returns we'll see daytime highs climb back to near to a few degrees above normal during the second half of the week into the weekend with overnight lows near normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 810 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

We continue to see a very wet pattern over the state with mainly on and off coastal showers. Most of this activity will be rain only but a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out in late morning through the evening hours. Winds will mainly be out of the west with gust up to 20 knots near the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

High pressure will remain south of the waters into Tuesday keeping a southwest to west flow over the Gulf waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and choppy seas will continue through Tuesday, especially from around Tampa Bay northward. The high pressure builds over the region during midweek and then continues to drift north of the waters late in the week with winds shifting to southeast to east.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Abundant moisture will remain over the region keeping minimum relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 78 88 78 / 60 50 40 10 FMY 91 78 90 76 / 20 10 50 10 GIF 89 75 89 75 / 50 20 50 10 SRQ 88 77 88 75 / 30 30 30 10 BKV 86 73 88 72 / 70 50 50 10 SPG 87 79 87 79 / 50 50 40 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.