textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue to run well above average through midweek with a few record high temperatures possible each day.

- Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible during the next couple of mornings.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and continue through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 840 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

No changes needed to the forecast this evening. Record setting day for seven climate sites today that set or tied daily high temps. Continued mild conditions overnight with lows in the 60s and low clouds and pockets of mist/fog possible, particularly across the Nature Coast and central/southern interior, followed by continued warmth Wednesday with additional record temps possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula through Wednesday with the warm and rather humid conditions persisting. Overall moisture will remain limited during this time mainly dry weather is expected, but can't rule out an isolated sprinkle/light shower as the sea breeze moves inland later today and again later Wednesday afternoon.

For Thursday and Thursday night, an upper level trough will move across the eastern U.S. with the associated cold front moving across the region. Increasing southerly flow will bring more moisture north ahead of the boundary with showers and a few thunderstorms expected. The front will be south of the area by Friday morning, but the low level flow will quickly veer around to the east during Friday as high pressure moves across the southeast states. This will keep some moisture across the region and thus allow for a few more showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially south of the I-4 corridor.

Over the weekend the high sets up well out in the Atlantic Ocean ridging back into the southeast U.S. again with the southeasterly flow returning. This will keep some moisture over the area allowing for more diurnal convection each day.

Early next week a much stronger cold front will be approaching and moving across the area Monday with more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Behind this front much cooler drier air will arrive with temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal for a few days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR continues to be expected through the cycle, with continued MIFG inclusion for inland and SWFL terminals where late night and early morning ground fog potential remains. Otherwise expect winds generally light and variable overnight, increasing to SE 5-10 knots in the morning before shifting to SW in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Pleasant marine conditions will continue through Wednesday, then conditions will deteriorate Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front moves across the waters bringing showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will increase ahead of and behind the boundary, possibly reaching exercise caution criteria Thursday night, then diminish again on Friday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger however through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as relative humidity values stay above critical levels and winds remain less than 15 mph through Wednesday night. Winds are expected to increase to 10 to 15 mph with some higher gusts on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will precede and accompany the front Thursday and Thursday night with moisture lingering through the weekend leading to more scattered showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 88 69 84 / 0 0 0 50 FMY 67 90 67 87 / 0 0 0 20 GIF 67 92 67 89 / 0 0 0 50 SRQ 67 85 67 82 / 0 0 0 50 BKV 61 91 62 86 / 0 0 0 60 SPG 72 86 72 83 / 0 0 0 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.