textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. - Drier and slightly cooler air will start to move in Thursday and will hold into early next week. Rain chances will be limited across the area Friday through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

High pressure well to the north is beginning to build into the area with a trough/convergent zone setting up across the central Florida peninsula early this afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are developing in this area, with some others trying to pop up along the west coast sea breeze south of Tampa Bay.

For the rest of this afternoon and evening we'll see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move south southwest across the area with north to northeast winds gradually increasing. Convection will move out into the eastern gulf this evening with northerly winds bringing drier air southward.

For Thursday into Friday the upper level trough will deepen off the eastern seaboard with a surface cold front moving south through the region. Breezy north to northeast winds will usher in more dry and slightly cooler air with precipitable water values dipping below 1.5 inches by Friday morning. Low rain chances will continue on Thursday, but mainly over the interior and southwest Florida. On Friday the drier air will be firmly entrenched with fair weather and dew points falling into the 60s across most of the area.

The fair and dry pattern will continue through the weekend with dew points dipping into the upper 50s north to mid 60s south. This will allow morning lows to fall into the upper 50s north to upper 60s south, with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Early next week the flow will shift to more easterly as the high over the eastern U.S. moves out into the Atlantic Ocean. This will allow a moisture to slowly increase along with increasing rain chances each day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could cause some MVFR/brief IFR conditions, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail into early tonight. Late tonight into Thursday morning some areas of MVFR, possibly IFR, ceilings could develop as north to northeast flow begins to increase. East to northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots are expected for most of the TAF forecast period, increasing to around 10 knots Thursday morning. Gusty erratic winds possible near any convection.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Winds will begin to increase tonight and Thursday as a cold front moves southwest through the waters, with Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines likely being needed by Thursday morning, and Small Craft Advisory headlines being needed by Thursday evening. Winds will continue to run near or above advisory or cautionary levels at times through Friday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A cold front will move south through the area Thursday, with increasing north to northeast winds bringing drier air and lower rain chances on Thursday. The drier air will hold through the weekend with little if any rain chance. Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds with sustained 20-foot winds less than 15 mph, therefore there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 89 72 87 / 20 10 0 0 FMY 75 90 73 89 / 20 20 10 0 GIF 74 91 71 88 / 10 20 0 10 SRQ 74 91 73 89 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 73 90 70 87 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 76 90 73 87 / 30 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.