textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 218 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Above normal temps and mostly dry conditions through early this week with heat indices topping 100 degrees each afternoon. - Increasing shower and storm chances will spread northward across the area, particularly from around mid week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Morning skew-t showing PW even lower then yesterday confirming the dry air is remaining over the area. This drier air aloft will keep shower chances at near 0 percent with highs warming up to the mid 90's for most of us. The one exception will be in Lee County where it looks like we will have just enough available moisture to produces a few storms in the evening hours.

By Tuesday moisture will be on the rise in South Florida allowing for slightly higher storm chances in Southwest Florida. The moisture increase will continue its push northward across much of the state, on Wednesday. However, we will still be seeing a northeasterly flow. In this flow regime we typically see storms develop south of I-4 while the northern half of our area stays dry.

Starting on Thursday we will see the flow switching southeasterly. This along with PW back above 1.75 will bring better storms chances to the west coast of Florida through next Saturday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions through the period with winds mainly out of the east with a seabreeze setting up in the afternoon and evening along the coastal sites. A small uptick in moisture will produce isolated storms in SW Florida around FMY and RSW during the late evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Winds will remain out of the east and southeast through Thursday with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. We will see dry conditions through Tuesday with evening and early overnight storms along the west coast returning Wednesday and Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Drier air still in place for Sunday with some critical RHs along the Nature Coast. However, winds will remain light so red flag will not be needed. Moisture will slowly return early next week with scattered showers returning by Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 78 94 79 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 95 76 95 77 / 30 30 10 30 GIF 93 73 94 75 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 94 76 94 77 / 0 10 10 10 BKV 96 72 96 74 / 0 0 10 10 SPG 95 78 95 79 / 0 10 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.