textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions continue, with heat indices just below advisory criteria today.

- Drier air aloft central and south today and Saturday leading to lower rain chances.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Best chances will be this morning for coastal sites, then storms move inland and east of the terminals for this afternoon and evening. A similar pattern is forecast for tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region today. Combination of slightly lower heights aloft, increased cloud cover, and slightly lower dew points will keep maximum heat indices just below heat advisory levels today...although it will still be hot. High temperatures in the lower to mid 90s with maximum heat indices of 103-107. Drier air aloft will advect over the central and southern forecast area late today and Saturday which will aid in suppressing convection. Onshore west to southwest flow will push the west coast sea breeze inland with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing mainly over the interior during the afternoon hours each day.

On Sunday, southwest boundary layer flow ahead of a weak boundary across north Florida will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the northeast Gulf, which will advect onshore portions of the nature coast. Elsewhere, scattered showers/storms will develop over the interior during the afternoon as onshore flow persists. Continued hot with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

Early next week, Monday will be a transition day with overall weak boundary layer flow which will allow the east and west coast sea breeze boundaries to push slowly inland through the day, likely colliding over the interior late in the day which will be the focus for highest pops.

On Tuesday, light southeast boundary layer flow will develop which will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary closer to the coast. Slightly lower deep layer moisture will hold daily pops below climatic normals. Deep layer moisture will begin to recover over the southern forecast area mid week which will increase pops over southwest Florida, with slightly lower pops north and central. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normals.

MARINE

Issued at 1216 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the weekend and into next week. Relatively weak pressure gradient each day will keep winds below cautionary levels with relatively low seas. Main hazard will be scattered showers/storms, mainly during the overnight and morning hours, which may cause locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 80 90 79 / 20 20 30 40 FMY 94 78 93 78 / 30 10 20 10 GIF 94 76 94 76 / 30 20 20 10 SRQ 92 78 91 78 / 20 20 20 30 BKV 93 74 90 73 / 20 20 40 40 SPG 90 80 89 80 / 20 20 30 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.