textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the Nature Coast through Monday. Marginal risk for the remainder of West Central and Southwest Florida.
- Flood Watch now in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 8 PM Monday.
- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through Monday.
- A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the northern waters until to 8 AM on Monday.
UPDATE
Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
Another unsettled day in paradise. Showers and storms continue to move onshore. This may continue over the next few hours and before tempering down. There should be a break before another round of showers pushes in overnight and into the early morning hours. On and off activity will continue through the day. Similar to today, ample cloud coverage will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Advisory level winds remain over the Gulf waters through Monday.
No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
On and off shower activity expected to continue over the next hours. There will be a break before another round overnight and early morning of Monday. West to southwesterly winds prevail continuing to support periods of showers and storms with most of it pushing east by the evening.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 87 78 88 / 40 60 50 60 FMY 77 90 77 90 / 20 30 20 60 GIF 75 88 75 89 / 20 50 20 60 SRQ 77 88 77 88 / 30 40 30 40 BKV 73 86 73 88 / 60 70 50 70 SPG 80 87 79 87 / 40 50 50 50
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
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