textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northeast winds to Exercise Caution over the eastern Gulf waters through Friday. - Critically low relative humidity values over the Nature Coast and interior through the weekend.

- Warming trend continues through the week and into the weekend.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 703 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the region through the weekend. Skies will become mostly clear after sunset with overnight low temperatures in the 40s across the nature coast, near 50 to the lower 50s central, and the mid 50s south. Another mild dry day on tap to end the work week with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to around 80 across west central and southwest Florida. Similar conditions are expected for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough extends from the eastern seaboard to FLorida this afternoon while surface high pressure continues over the southeast. This has kept a dry northeast low-level flow across the local area, with temperatures topping out closer to normal this afternoon. The trough will shift eastward over the next few days while surface high pressure settles over the region for the weekend and into early next week. This will allow the gradual warming trend to continue, with highs rising back above normal as we head into next week. A frontal boundary will move southward over the region on Tuesday, bringing a slight chance for showers through the middle part of the week. Otherwise, rain-free conditions will prevail.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for the next 24 hours under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

MARINE

High pressure continues north of the region through the end of the week, keeping northeast winds near exercise caution levels through Friday. For the weekend into next week, high pressure will set up overhead, allowing winds to diminish with no further headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER

A relatively dry air mass will remain over the region for the next several days, with relative humidity values dropping to critical levels for tomorrow afternoon and then over parts of the interior for the weekend. No Red Flag conditions are expected, however, as other criteria are not expected to be met. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 53 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 55 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 52 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 54 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 44 78 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 60 79 62 80 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.