textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog and low clouds possible early this morning.

- Showers likely with a few thunderstorms across the Nature Coast today, chance of showers and a thunderstorm elsewhere.

- Cooler and drier mid week then warming late week.

- Next round of unsettled conditions possible this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

U/A analysis and WV satellite imagery continue to depict longwave trough axis over the C U.S. this morning with the local area underneath zonal, progressive W/SW flow between the trough axis and ridging extending E/NE from the far S Gulf/NW Caribbean into the W Atlantic. This general configuration is expected to remain in place into the weekend before the trough axis shifts east early next week, and will support multiple shortwave impulses propagating E/NE through the flow favoring an additional round of unsettled conditions locally over the weekend.

For today, a cold front extending from a developing surface low along the E Seaboard will push S/E across the area in response to a shortwave moving across the E U.S. In addition to low cloud and patchy fog potential locally this morning, latest radar shows showers and a few storms developing over the E Gulf this morning, which will overspread the area later this morning through afternoon ahead of the front, with highest rain chances north of I-4 and storm chances across the Nature Coast. Warm and moist conditions this afternoon with highs mainly in the lower 80s will also favor a small window supportive of a Marginal severe threat across far northern Levy County, which has been highlighted by SPC for the risk of a damaging wind gust or brief tornado through around mid afternoon as activity pushes across the area. Forcing will be limited further south as the parent shortwave pulls away to the northeast, however a strong storm cannot be ruled out across the offshore waters and coastal areas of WCFL. Activity largely diminishes late afternoon into this evening as the frontal boundary itself pushes across the peninsula, perhaps accompanied by a final thin line of showers or sprinkles, followed by widespread low cloudiness likely to linger through tonight into Wednesday.

Cooler drier air filters into the peninsula on Wednesday with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and northerly winds settling over the area, and afternoon highs from the upper 60s north to upper 70s south. The cooler drier air coupled with light winds and clear skies will allow for lows to drop into the lower to around 50 degrees north of I-4 on Thursday morning, and lower to mid 50s southward. A warming trend ensues Thursday afternoon with highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s, and continues into the mid 70s to mid 80s on Fri-Sat while lows warm through the 50s into the 60s.

Late week into the weekend another frontal boundary looks to work into the area bringing the next round of rain chances. Global models continue to indicate varying solutions regarding the evolution of the influencing shortwave energy propagating across the SE U.S. that will ultimately determine impacts locally in association with the boundary, however at this time it appears that at least some of the area may receive some higher rainfall amounts, with highest likelihood over the Nature Coast where WPC has placed a Marginal Risk over Levy County for the Day 5 period (Saturday through Saturday night) in the latest Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Approaching cold front with increasing S/SW winds across all terminals this morning, period of MVFR cigs and VCSH into early afternoon for TPA/PIE/LAL, and PROB30 for showers/cigs mainly late morning and afternoon for remaining terminals given lower chances. Winds veer W/NW during the evening with FROPA and decrease, with post-frontal period of MVFR/LCL IFR cigs evening into Tue night.

MARINE

Issued at 350 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Active marine conditions today as a frontal boundary pushes across the waters. Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of the front with gusty S/SW winds this morning gradually veering to N/NW tonight into Wednesday and decreasing. Cautionary level winds likely this morning for northern offshore waters, while remaining just below cautionary levels for remaining waters. Frontal boundary lingers south of the waters mid week then drifts back north over the waters late week into the weekend with additional rain chances and likely increase in winds and seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 350 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

A cold front pushes across the region today preceded by showers and a few storms followed by cooler and drier air filtering in behind it through mid week, however minimum RH values are expected to remain above critical thresholds. Frontal boundary lifts back north across the area late week into the weekend with additional rain chances, with continued limited fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 62 74 55 / 50 0 0 0 FMY 82 64 79 57 / 20 10 0 0 GIF 82 60 76 53 / 40 10 0 0 SRQ 80 63 75 53 / 40 10 0 0 BKV 82 53 73 46 / 50 0 0 0 SPG 79 63 73 58 / 40 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.