textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- East-southeast flow continues today with a typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

- Lower rain coverage is expected during the work week, with rain chances of only around 20 percent or less each day from Tuesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is sitting northeast of Florida setting up southeast flow across the forecast area today, giving way to an afternoon sea breeze near the coast. Under deep moisture, this pattern will translate to scattered to numerous showers and storms developing this afternoon over the interior and building towards the I-75 corridor during the late afternoon and evening with the sea breeze collision, with the highest storm chances over southwest Florida where moisture will be most favorable. While this surface flow pattern is set to continue on Monday, the mid level ridge will start to shift west into a position over Florida, with broad subsidence bringing in drier air aloft. As a result, rain chances will become more isolated on Monday, particularly across the Tampa Bay and I-4 corridor.

Tuesday through the rest of the week, the surface ridge will shift south and setup across central Florida. With ridging at both the surface and aloft, subsidence will continue to dry out the atmospheric column, keeping rain chances well below normal for mid August. In general, only 10-20 percent rain coverage is expected each day, with daily QPFs of around 0.10 inches or less. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and morning lows in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to hold through the morning, although an occasional stray shower cannot be ruled out. Scattered to numerous storms will develop during the afternoon and early evening, bringing periods of gusty winds and reduced flight categories as storms move over individual terminals. Rain free and VFR conditions are expected to return by around 01-03z.

MARINE

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

High pressure northeast of Florida will keep southeast flow in place today and Monday, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Winds will generally remain less than 15 knots outside of daily thunderstorms. Tuesday through the rest of the week, the ridge will shift south and will extend across the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf, bringing in drier air aloft with lower rain chances and keeping winds and seas below headline criteria.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

No humidity concerns. Southeast flow today and Monday will turn onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop today, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours, then drier conditions aloft will limit rain chances Monday through the rest of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 77 92 78 / 40 20 10 10 FMY 94 76 94 77 / 70 30 30 10 GIF 93 75 94 76 / 50 20 10 0 SRQ 93 75 93 76 / 50 30 10 10 BKV 94 74 94 74 / 40 20 10 0 SPG 90 78 91 79 / 40 20 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.