textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-105 degrees continue areawide.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week mainly interior and southwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Upper ridging and surface high pressure centered in the north central Gulf ridges eastward across southwest Florida. A little farther north, upper troughing extends southward along the eastern seaboard. The associated weak front extends through the western Atlantic, then along northern Florida and farther westward along the northern gulf coast states. A few showers and a stray storm will be possible in the vicinity of this front during the early morning hours along the Nature Coast and into the late morning and afternoon farther south near Tampa Bay and interior. These showers and storms will linger into the evening hours, clearing out into early Thursday morning as the front washes out east of Florida.

By Thursday morning, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states and over the north central Gulf will dominate the weather pattern for the latter part of the week. Scattered showers and storms possible on Thursday and Friday afternoon with the highest chances over the interior and southwest Florida.

By Saturday morning, the high pressure center has shifted eastward between the Bahamas and Bermuda. The ridge axis will extend westward across north central Florida and bring a shift in the winds to the northeast through southeast direction. This pattern will favor the development of showers and storms over the interior and push them westward along the west coast of Florida during the afternoon and evening hours, hopefully bringing in some rainfall relief to the dry conditions.

Temperatures will remain quite hot topping out in the low to mid 90s with heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees each afternoon. Not much relief expected overnight with low temperatures also remaining quite warm and muggy only dipping into the mid 70s to around 80 each night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 857 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A weak boundary just north of Tampa will start to push south over the next several hours. Some hi res models showing a few pop up showers as it passes so put a POP30 for both TPA and PIE. Best chance for storms this afternoon will be inland so have VCTS for LAL. Winds will once again be westerly throughout the day.

MARINE

Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Pleasant boating conditions with low rain chances expected through the week. Winds will remain less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected, favoring areas away from the immediate coast through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 80 92 80 / 40 10 20 0 FMY 94 78 94 78 / 20 10 40 30 GIF 95 75 95 76 / 50 20 50 20 SRQ 93 79 93 79 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 95 74 95 74 / 40 10 30 0 SPG 92 80 92 81 / 30 10 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.