textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula through the remainder of the week and the weekend. A frontal boundary will approach the forecast area early next week and will stall across north central Florida as it becomes parallel to the U/L flow...and will likely be the focus for showers and thunderstorms.

The surface ridge axis will remain north of the forecast area through the weekend, which will allow easterly boundary layer flow to persist each day. Combination of large scale subsidence over the area and easterly flow will allow temperatures to remain several degrees above climatic normals each day. Subsidence inversion aloft is rather high at 16K-17K FT as seen on the TBW 00Z sounding. Although predominately dry conditions are expected today, can't rule out a stray shower developing below the subsidence inversion.

Increase in deep layer moisture on Thursday will create a better chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with highest pops over the interior. This will be short lived as drier air aloft will move back over the region for Friday and Saturday, but still a slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm.

The area of high pressure will begin to move away from the region late in the weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The frontal boundary will stall across north central Florida early next week with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normals with high temperatures generally 85 to 90 each day through the weekend. With the frontal boundary dropping over the Florida peninsula Monday and Tuesday, the increased cloud cover and shower activity will hold max temps down with highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s north...and around 80 central and south.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 810 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions through the period with winds out of the east generally below 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters with easterly winds below cautionary levels each day through Saturday. As the frontal boundary approaches late in the weekend, winds will shift to the north and northwest. The gradient will tighten early next week with advisory level winds possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Abundant low level moisture will hold across the region through the week which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 86 66 87 69 / 0 0 50 20 FMY 86 65 87 68 / 0 0 50 20 GIF 86 63 87 67 / 10 0 60 10 SRQ 86 65 85 67 / 0 0 40 20 BKV 87 58 88 64 / 10 0 50 20 SPG 86 69 86 71 / 0 0 40 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.