textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue through the weekend and into next week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day mainly over the interior and southwest Florida.

UPDATE

Issued at 930 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Morning forecast on track with no changes needed. Light/variable flow this morning under the surface ridge axis will give way to onshore flow near the coast with the sea breeze and light SE/E flow inland late morning through the afternoon, with developing afternoon through evening showers and storms. Highest chances look to focus from SWFL northward across W FL and interior locations where sea breeze and boundary collisions will be maximized.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Upper level ridging and broad surface high pressure near Bermuda ridges west-southwest over Florida and into the Gulf. This pattern will favor a predominant east-southeast wind flow over the region. This flow combined with abundant moisture with PWAT values around 1.7 - 2.2 inches will support the development of the scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon/evening through the weekend. Some boundary collisions with the west coast sea breeze could produce some stronger storms with gusty winds, possible hail and heavy downpours.

By Monday afternoon, the ridge will shift southward extending through central Florida and into the Gulf. This will result in variable winds over the region with sea breeze driven showers and storms prevailing on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, strong upper ridging and surface high pressure sets up over the eastern half of the U.S. This will allow for continued sea breeze showers and storms each day as well as continued heat and humidity. Daytime highs in the low to mid 90s with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees expected each afternoon. Overnight lows remain quite warm and muggy only dipping into the mid 70s to around 80 each night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 930 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Light/variable morning flow becomes onshore/W across coastal terminals this afternoon. SH/TSRA develop mid-late afternoon and linger into evening, associated MVFR/LCL IFR impacts most likely at LAL and SWFL terminals. Activity diminishes late evening with winds becoming light/variable.

MARINE

Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Pleasant boating conditions expected through the weekend and into next week with winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. The only marine impact expected will be some scattered showers and storms which may produce some gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue with scattered showers and storms expected. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than 10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 79 93 81 / 40 10 50 10 FMY 95 77 94 78 / 60 40 40 20 GIF 95 76 95 77 / 70 40 50 20 SRQ 94 78 94 79 / 30 20 40 10 BKV 96 73 96 75 / 30 10 30 10 SPG 94 80 94 81 / 30 10 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.