textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast during the morning hours and will push inland during the afternoon and evening for the next few days.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Currently we are seeing ridging to our south with a strong southwesterly flow in place. Typically with strong southwesterly flow we will see some late morning showers along the west coast. However, the majority of the shower activity will be inland and along the east coast of Florida in the afternoon and evening hours.

By Tuesday and Wednesday the ridge shifts a little farther north but still stays to our south. This will keep us in southwesterly flow but will be weaker. This weaker flow means the west coast should remain dry with storms once again inland and on the east coast.

Some Saharan Dust will be crossing the Atlantic through the week and should make its way over the state on Thursday. This will bring much drier air in our upper level and keep storms away. The drier air aloft will mean warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 90's for most of us. Thing get a little more interesting on Friday. The SAL will remain over us but at the same time we will see an upper level trough push through the Keys and South Florida. This trough should help to offset the dust in Southwest Florida bringing some scattered showers. The rest of the area will remain dry with highs again in the mid to upper 90's.

By next Saturday and Sunday the dust will start to dissipate and moisture will start to return bringing back our typical scattered showers and storm chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A few morning showers will be possible along the west coast through the morning hours today. After that we can expect afternoon convection starting closer to the west coast before moving inland and towards the east coast in the evening hours. Winds will remain mainly out of the west.

MARINE

Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Winds be out of the southwest today around 5 to 10 knots with morning showers and isolated thunderstorms possible. For the rest of our work week riding will be overhead bringing us very light winds just around 5 knots with mainly dry conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Summertime humidity and heat will continue through mid week. Some Saharan dust will move over the area on Thursday and Friday. This will keep us mainly dry and hotter to end the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 81 92 81 / 40 10 30 10 FMY 93 77 94 78 / 50 20 50 10 GIF 94 76 94 77 / 60 20 50 10 SRQ 92 79 93 80 / 20 20 20 0 BKV 93 75 94 75 / 50 10 20 0 SPG 92 81 92 82 / 30 20 30 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.