textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms continue tomorrow. A few storms may produce strong winds of 50+ mph and small hail.

- A summertime pattern will continue through mid week. Potential for some drier air by late in the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

It has been an active afternoon across West Central and Southwest Florida, with the upper-level low and deep moisture enhancing thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. Some thunderstorms continue to linger near the coast south of Tampa Bay; but the boundary that was the catalyst for this activity is now moving offshore. Over the next 1 to 2 hours, thunderstorms should wind down, leaving conditions relatively quiet overnight.

The forecast has been tweaked for the next few hours to capture current trends. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track. No additional changes are needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Looking at satellite you can clearly see the upper level low spinning right over the Tampa Bay Area. This upper level low will slowly drift northeasterly through Tuesday. This will keep our wind flow out of the east and southeast. This will favor storms inland during the afternoon hours and closer to the coast in the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Wednesday the upper level low will be heading up to the Northeast coast. As it does so we will enter a more neutral flow regime with very light winds aloft. With this regime storms favor more inland areas however we will still see some storm heading towards the coast thanks to outflow boundaries in the evening hours.

As we head into the end of the week and into weekend we will see an interesting pattern in the upper level up in the northeast. Two upper level lows start to interact resulting in a Fujiwara effect. How does this effect our weather? It helps to bring upper level troughing over the area and to bring a cold front through late in the day on Thursday. This will switch our winds out of the north and bringing much drier air. This will keep shower chances down and bring some slightly cooler air especially in the morning. Areas across the Nature Coast could see lows in the mid to upper 60's Saturday morning.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Thunderstorms continue in the vicinity of coastal terminals south of Tampa Bay for the next couple hours before quieting overnight. Thereafter, no additional impacts for terminals are expected until tomorrow afternoon when thunderstorms begin to develop once again around 18Z to 19Z. A similar pattern will continue to repeat for the next few days.

MARINE

Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Winds will remain light through the middle of the week out of the east and northeast around 5 to 10 knots, except near the coast where winds will likely turn onshore during the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, with locally higher seas in the vicinity. As a cold front will approaches the area on Thursday, winds begin to increase across coastal waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Deeper layer moisture in across the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the middle part of the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 89 75 89 / 30 50 20 60 FMY 74 89 75 90 / 50 50 40 80 GIF 73 90 73 91 / 20 70 30 70 SRQ 74 90 74 90 / 40 50 40 70 BKV 71 91 72 91 / 30 60 20 60 SPG 76 88 76 88 / 20 40 30 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.