textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will be the last day of southwest to west flow with scattered morning showers and thunderstorms near the coast moving inland by afternoon.

- Pattern changes during midweek with east to southeast flow setting up and the more typical mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The ridge of high pressure is starting to shift northward today. This will start to take us out of southwesterly flow we have been stuck in since late last week. Tomorrow will be a transition day with mainly southerly flow. This should still keep storms mainly on the west coast of Florida but might avoid the immediate coastline.

By Thursday we will be an easterly flow regime that should stick with us through Saturday. This will give us our more typically summertime convective pattern with sunshine in the morning with late afternoon and evening storms. The PWs will still remain on the higher end for the period. That means the storms we do see will be more widespread as they develop inland before moving towards the west coast each evening.

By Sunday and Monday we will continue with our easterly flow however we will see some drier air coming in. This will result in some lower rain shower chances to start next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

This will be the last wet day with southwesterly flow. It won't rain all day but we will see at least a round or two of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will remain below 10 knots outside of thunderstorms with VFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Ridging will be shifting north over the next 24 hours. This will start to shift our winds from the southwest to the east. ALso, we will see the timing of showers change. Instead of the scattered showers throughout the overnight and early morning hours we will see the best storm chances in the evening as storms push off the coast. Also starting Thursday night we will see nightly wind surges when winds pick up to 10 to 15 mph before slowly coming down in the morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

We have seen some beneficial rain over the last several days thanks to a strong southwesterly flow. This trend will start to change tomorrow as we see more of a easterly flow. The flow will result in more typical summertime pattern with seabreeze storms developing inland before shifting towards the west coast in the evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 77 89 77 / 70 20 60 30 FMY 90 76 92 76 / 50 30 70 30 GIF 88 74 90 75 / 60 20 50 20 SRQ 88 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 30 BKV 88 72 91 72 / 60 20 50 20 SPG 87 78 88 78 / 60 30 50 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.