textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 728 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms Tuesday, mainly over the interior during the afternoon and early evening hours.

- Widespread showers and storms will move south through the area Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the strongest storms capable of producing damaging winds gusts and frequent lightning.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 728 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026 A band of showers and thunderstorms over Polk county is moving southeast. The storms will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and wind gusts to around 35 MPH. The shower/thunderstorm activity will dissipate later this evening with skies remaining mostly cloudy overnight.

Although deep tropical moisture will remain over west central and southwest Florida on Tuesday, west to northwest boundary layer flow will promote a few showers/thunderstorms developing over the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon hours, increasing in areal coverage as they move over the interior during the mid/late afternoon. There will be a much greater probability for showers/storms Tuesday night and Wednesday as a frontal boundary pushes south down the Florida peninsula.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Isolated light shower activity has been observed moving onshore portions of the coast this morning and early this afternoon with a few isolated lightning storms across northern parts of the area. Westerly flow should push best chances for more organized scattered shower and storm activity towards the interior and across the eastern side of the peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, highs remain near normal in the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Dry overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s. West to northwest flow persists Tuesday, favoring a similar pattern to today with scattered showers and storms predominantly across interior portions of west central Florida. Highs in the upper 80s and low 90s persist Tuesday.

The synoptic pattern changes late Tuesday into Wednesday as a mid level trough moves offshore the U.S. eastern seaboard, extending over Florida. An associated cold front sinks southward through central Florida Wednesday, before stalling south of Lake Okeechobee and Charlotte Harbor into late week. As a result, moderate to high rain chances are forecast to build from north to south Tuesday night and into Wednesday. East-northeast flow develops behind the front as high pressure slowly shifts across the southeast U.S. and into the western Atlantic by the weekend, and a drier air mass is expected to advect across much of west central Florida beginning Thursday. However, scattered rain chances could still exist south of Tampa Bay through Thursday afternoon as some moisture may still linger in the vicinity of the stalled front across southwest Florida. Otherwise, most areas look to remain dry Friday into the weekend with only low rain chances continuing south of Tampa Bay. Below normal afternoon temperatures are forecast Wednesday through Friday with highs mostly ranging the mid to upper 80s. Near normal highs in the low 90s return this weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026 Showers/thunderstorms will be vcnty LAL for the next couple of hours with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. Otherwise, VFR CIGs AOA120 will prevail at all terminals overnight and on Tuesday. Chance of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon mainly vcnty LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions persist through Tuesday as west-northwest flow continues across the local waters. The pattern changes Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front moves southward across the region and stalls south of Charlotte Harbor into late week. Winds shift out of the northeast early Wednesday, increasing 15-20 kts across portions of the Nature Coast waters. Windspeeds further increase near 20 kts southward through Tampa Bay into Wednesday evening, before subsiding some into Thursday. Increasing Gulf seas mostly remain 2-3 ft with the front, but build 4 ft over portions of the offshore waters.Greater shower and storm chances build over the local waters Tuesday evening into Wednesday with scattered chances lingering near and south of Tampa Bay Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A persistent pattern of westerly flow will continue to favor the greatest shower and storm chances across the interior this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. A cold front passes the region Tuesday night through Wednesday shifting winds out of the east-northeast into mid week. Moderate to high coverage of showers and storms are forecast Wednesday. There are no humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 90 76 86 / 10 20 60 80 FMY 79 93 76 89 / 10 20 40 80 GIF 77 92 74 85 / 20 40 50 70 SRQ 79 91 76 89 / 10 10 60 80 BKV 77 92 72 86 / 10 20 60 60 SPG 81 92 77 88 / 10 20 50 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.