textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will slowly increase through the week, with high temperatures running about 5-10 degrees above normal by the end of the week.

- Some late night and early morning fog will return each day during the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

After a slightly cooler morning, temperatures have warmed up into the upper 70s low 80s. As the week continues, afternoon temperatures will continue to rise to above average levels. There's a chance some inland areas could even see the low 90s later in the week when the winds shift more southerly dragging more moist, tropical air into the area. High pressure remains in control over the area, keeping warm, mostly rain-free conditions as we head into the weekend. Main concern through the week will be the development of fog overnight/early morning.

Over the weekend, the pattern will shift again as a cold front move through Sunday brining a slight chance or showers. The big change will come behind the front when a much colder air mass pushes into the area from the north. Low temperatures will drop back into the 30s and 40s through mid week. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. In other words, will go from well above average temperatures this week, to below average next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail through this evening. There is a potential for patchy fog to develop late tonight into tomorrow morning. Confidence of impacts at TAF sites too low to include at in TAFs at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

High pressure over the area will keep quite conditions through the remainder of the week. A cold front will move through Sunday brining isolated showers. Winds likely to increase to advisory levels overnight Sunday into Monday morning making seas hazardous to start the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Conditions remain dry and warm through the week. RH values will remain above critical and winds will remain below 15mph. A cold front moves over the area Sunday bringing a chance of showers. Conditions dry out behind the front once more.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 61 82 62 82 / 10 0 0 0 GIF 60 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 60 78 61 78 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 54 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 20 SPG 65 77 66 77 / 0 0 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.