textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions this morning will improve through the afternoon.

- Below normal temperatures today and Wednesday will warm back up later this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Early morning IR satellite imagery is showing widespread stratus clouds covering much of the Florida Peninsula in the wake of the recent cold front, with clearing conditions gradually working north to south into the Nature Coast. While the clearing skies are forecast to continue expanding south into the forecast area today, deeper moisture south of Interstate 4 should keep at least the southern half of the forecast area rather cloudy throughout the day today. Otherwise, the breezy north and northeast winds are advecting in a cooler airmass, with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s across the area this morning, then highs forecast to run around 5 degrees below normal this afternoon. While wind speeds and the associated cold air advection will relax by this afternoon, the clearing skies over the northern half of the area will allow for some modest radiational cooling over the Nature Coast tonight, letting Wednesday morning lows drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s, while lows farther south will be similar or slightly warmer than what is felt this morning.

By Thursday, an upper level trough digging into the eastern US will bring a weak and dry cold front into the area, briefly dropping temperatures back down to slightly below normal Friday morning. Temperatures will then moderate again Friday through the weekend as surface high pressure builds into Florida from the north. The only rain chances of note through the next week could develop Saturday night and Sunday as an upper level disturbance crosses the Florida Peninsula, bringing some elevated moisture and slight chances of rain into southwest Florida.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 231 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Widespread MVFR and patchy IFR ceilings behind the recent cold front will hold through at least sunrise this morning across the area. By around 12z, ceilings are forecast to lift out of the Tampa Bay area terminals (KTPA, KPIE, KSRQ, and KLAL), allowing VFR conditions to return through the rest of the day, but patchy MVFR ceilings are expected to linger through the rest of the day across southwest Florida (KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD).

MARINE

Issued at 231 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Breezy north and northeast winds today are causing borderline Small Craft Advisory level conditions early this morning, but winds and seas are forecast to improve throughout the day. High pressure building in from the north will then remain in control through Wednesday. On Thursday, a weak and dry cold front will sweep southeast across the waters, increasing winds slightly, but winds and seas are not forecast to reach headline criteria. High pressure will then spread across the waters through the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

No humidity concerns this week as high pressure builds in behind the recent cold front. Somewhat breezy north and northeast winds today will relax this evening under mostly cloudy skies.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 55 71 58 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 73 59 76 55 / 10 10 0 0 GIF 69 54 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 70 55 71 57 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 68 45 71 49 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 69 57 71 61 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.