textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return Friday and Saturday.

- A medium chance for fog tonight into Friday morning.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026 VFR conditions are expected through today and the first part of tonight. Patchy fog is then forecast to develop toward daybreak, mainly for KLAL and the southwest Florida sites, with a medium chance for MVFR or lower cigs/vsbys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Not as cold early this morning with most locations in the 40s and 50s. High clouds are streaming across the area limiting the amount of radiational cooling. Additionally, high pressure has shifted out over the Atlantic with weak southerly flow across the Florida Peninsula. The upper level pattern features a broad low amplitude trough across the eastern 2/3rd's of the CONUS. At the surface, low level southerly to southwesterly flow will continue today with temperatures warming into the mid 70s to low 80s. Moisture will also increase with dewpoints rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s. The combination of increasing moisture and light winds will lead to the potential for fog overnight. Confidence has increased in fog formation and have added patchy fog to the forecast for most of the area.

A split jet pattern begins to setup later today with the polar jet well to the north across the Great Lakes and along the U.S. and Canadian border with the sub-tropical jet extended from the northern Gulf Coast westwards to the Four Corners Region. A weak trough associated with the sub-tropical will move into the region late Friday into Saturday. At the surface, a weak cold front will move into the region around the same time. PW values will climb to near 1.5 inches ahead of the approaching front. These values are around the 95th percentile of climatology for late February. Models soundings indicate limited instability with lapse rates near moist adiabatic throughout much of the atmosphere. Overall, expect thunder chances will be on the lower end. Best chances for thunderstorms appears to be across interior portions of the forecast area Saturday afternoon. With rain chances throughout much of the day and widespread cloud cover, high temperatures should struggle to reach 80 degrees on Saturday. Rain chances will come to an end Saturday night. With the front being associated with the sub-tropical jet, there won't be much in the way of cold air advection behind the departing front.

Highs on Sunday will climb into the low to mid 80s with lows Sunday night into Monday morning in the mid 50s to low 60s. Ridging will build into the area early next week with the warming trend continuing.

MARINE

Issued at 126 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

High pressure ridging across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters producing rain-free conditions, winds less than 15 knots and seas 3 feet or less will continue today. Sea fog will be possible late Thursday into early Friday as a cold front approaches the area. Showers and storms will also be possible late Friday into Saturday with the frontal passage. Drier conditions are forecast on Sunday and throughout much of the upcoming week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

RH values are increasing across the area with weak southerly flow in place. Dispersion will be high later this afternoon with highest values across the interior portions of the forecast area. A cold front will approach the area late Friday with rain chances increasing late Friday and extending throughout the day on Saturday. Dry conditions will move back into the area on Sunday and last throughout much of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 62 80 63 / 0 0 30 50 FMY 81 62 85 64 / 10 10 20 40 GIF 79 61 85 63 / 0 0 30 50 SRQ 77 61 79 63 / 0 0 30 50 BKV 79 53 83 56 / 0 0 30 50 SPG 76 64 79 66 / 0 0 30 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.