textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue this afternoon through Saturday.

- A high chance for fog and low clouds tomorrow morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Broad troughing continues aloft across the region this afternoon with surface high pressure to our west and a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. We are already starting to see some showers and a few thunderstorms over the Gulf ahead of the boundary entering our coastal waters and these will continue to spread over the area through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Tonight, the front will slow down as the flow aloft becomes more parallel to it and this will allow showers and isolated thunderstorms to linger through the night while also slowly shifting southward. Then as we head into the daytime hours, there will still be some shower activity along the front, but it does look like most of the activity will be more toward the east coast as the upper trough swings eastward along with the higher-moisture air mass. As far as rainfall amounts go, the higher-end amounts are between 1-1.5 inches for the most part, with a few pockets of 2 inches.

The boundary will finally get pushed south of the area Saturday night into Sunday with high pressure moving over the southeast. The rest of the week will be fairly quiet, with warm conditions continuing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 106 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Very tricky forecast today with the potential for several aviation issues. VFR conditions continue this afternoon, but should be short- lived as additional low clouds and fog form this evening ahead of a cold front. We will also start to see showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, with rain chances continuing into tonight. The lower ceilings and visibilities are likely to linger into late tomorrow morning or early afternoon before we see improvement.

MARINE

Issued at 106 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 A frontal boundary is approaching the region, with additional showers and thunderstorms spreading over the waters through the rest of today and into tonight. Sea fog that developed earlier has lifted, but additional dense fog is likely to form later today or tonight. No headlines are expected except for any Dense Fog Advisories. Winds will turn northeast and then east late this weekend into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 106 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 A cold front will bring increasing rain chances today into Saturday, with a few thunderstorms expected as well. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with no fire weather concerns. Some patchy fog is possible tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 64 77 60 79 / 70 40 10 10 FMY 66 82 63 83 / 40 20 20 20 GIF 64 79 59 79 / 80 60 20 20 SRQ 64 76 60 78 / 60 30 10 10 BKV 56 78 52 81 / 70 50 10 10 SPG 67 76 64 78 / 60 30 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.