textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- A Flood Watch is in effect for Highlands County through this afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through the early afternoon, with locally heavy rainfall possible. - Gusty winds over the coastal waters will continue to cause rough marine conditions through Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Early morning radar and IR satellite imagery is showing an area of unsettled weather holding over the Florida Peninsula in association with an upper level shortwave drifting southwest into the Gulf. Deep moisture wrapping around the mid level low over central Florida has been resulting in training storms over portions of the interior yesterday and into the overnight hours, with additional heavy rainfall and flooding possible throughout the rest of the morning and possibly into the early afternoon hours. As a result, the Flood Watch remains in effect for Highlands County through this afternoon, but isolated flooding in surrounding counties this morning cannot be completely ruled out as well. As the upper level trough shifts southwest this afternoon, rain chances will begin diminish through the evening hours, but enough lingering moisture holding in place will allow for scattered to numerous storms to develop again Tuesday afternoon under continued breezy easterly flow. By Wednesday, winds will begin to subside as surface high pressure spreads southwest into the area, with scattered showers and storms expected to develop again in the afternoon.

By Thursday, the next upper level shortwave will be lifting northeast from the Midwest into the Great Lakes region, pulling a weak surface front into the southeastern US. This front will push southeast into the forecast area by Friday, although limited moisture ahead of the system will keep rain chances minimal with the frontal passage. Northwest and north low level flow behind the front will set up weak cold air advection, resulting in lower humidity and slightly cooler morning temperatures for the weekend, with lows forecast to drop into the mid 50s north, to low to mid 60s central and south.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 243 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and impact local terminals through the rest of the overnight and morning hours, producing gusty winds and periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities. The rain is forecast to begin to clear out through the late morning and afternoon hours, although some residual stratus and lingering showers could continue to cause MVFR or perhaps IFR conditions at times through the afternoon. Chances for MVFR ceilings will begin to increase again after around sunset this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 243 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Surface high pressure holding north of Florida is keeping breezy easterly flow today and tonight, with winds running to Advisory or Cautionary levels at times. With a tighter pressure gradient today, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the nearshore waters west of Tampa Bay and the offshore waters from Englewood to Suwannee River. Otherwise, the upper level disturbance will continue to produce scattered to numerous thunderstorms today through Tuesday. Drier air and lighter winds will fill in Wednesday through the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 243 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

The upper level trough overhead will gradually shift west today, with deep moisture continuing to fuel widespread showers and thunderstorms through at least the morning before starting to clear out through the afternoon and evening hours. Scattered to numerous storms will develop again Tuesday under continued breezy easterly winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 71 84 71 / 50 20 50 10 FMY 81 71 86 71 / 70 30 60 20 GIF 82 71 86 70 / 50 30 50 20 SRQ 81 70 85 70 / 60 20 50 10 BKV 83 69 86 69 / 40 20 50 20 SPG 79 72 82 72 / 60 20 50 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Highlands.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.