textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through early next week.

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop each day through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Scattered showers and storms currently ongoing across that area. These showers/storms continue to build inland throughout the afternoon hours. This mornings 12z sounding indicated PW values of 2.08 inches. These values are near the 75th percentile for late August. Therefore, expect any showers/storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours with a quick 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in the heavier downpours. Low-level winds today are generally from the south to southwest and expect to see this activity shift more towards the east coast late this afternoon and into the evening hours.

A regime change is forecast over the weekend. Low-level flow will shift around to the east. This easterly flow features throughout much of the remainder of the forecast period. Easterly flow will keep the west coast seabreeze near the coast with the majority of the showers/storms along the coast as well. PW anomalies remain on the high side over the weekend and into next week. It looks like PW values will remain around the 60th-90th percentile throughout the up coming week. With this, elevated PoPs feature. The easterly flow will feature highest rain chances in the afternoon along the coast. Once again any storm will be capable of producing brief heavy downpours with gusty winds.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions currently across the terminals. So far, the coverage of showers and storms has been less than forecast. Due to this, went a little more optimistic a shorter timeframe of VCTS in the TAFs. Still expect the best chances for TS will be inland and later this afternoon, therefore, highest confidence is at KLAL. Any ongoing convection will come to an end by 22z or so with VFR conditions forecast overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Light winds and seas are forecast. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

No fire weather hazards are expected. Moisture will remain elevated with elevated chances with afternoon showers and storms each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 92 77 91 / 20 60 50 90 FMY 77 94 77 93 / 20 70 40 90 GIF 75 94 76 93 / 40 60 20 90 SRQ 76 94 76 93 / 20 60 50 80 BKV 72 94 73 93 / 20 60 40 90 SPG 78 92 78 91 / 20 50 50 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.