textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Today and continue through Monday.

- Much cooler drier air arrives by next Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 933 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A line of showers with some embedded storms is moving across northern FL this morning ahead of a cold front as the boundary continues to push to the southeast. The expectation with this activity is that it will generally become more disorganized as it continues its approach to the TBW CWA as it becomes increasingly displaced from the better upper support to the north. However, given the more favorable diurnal timing this afternoon as the activity moves into the Nature Coast, combined with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear, there still may be enough ingredients in place for some stronger wind gusts in any more organized areas of the line so this will be something to keep an eye on later today. Otherwise, this will be a mostly sub-severe event and while any rainfall will be welcome, it won't be enough for meaningful drought improvements as QPF amounts look to range around 0.25-0.50 inches, though locally higher amounts closer to an inch may occur in a few locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A cold front continues to move towards the area from the northwest, brining some much needed rain. Later this morning showers and a few storms will reach the nature coast then move southeast across the area through the afternoon into the evening. A few showers could linger into the overnight hours before completing clearing out. Behind the front, slightly cooler and drier air will move into the area, but a major cool down is not expected.

Luckily, the beneficial rain chances remain elevated through the weekend as high pressure sets up in the Atlantic generating a more easterly flow. With the west coast sea breeze developing each afternoon, coupled with daytime heating, scattered afternoon showers will be likely, especially over the interior areas.

A stronger cold front is expected to move through Monday. Much cooler air will actually filter in behind this front. Low temperatures will dip back into the 40s and 50s through most of next week. High temperatures will remain a little below average as well.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 755 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Occasional MVFR/IFR CIGs this morning to start the TAF period will gradually scatter out by late morning but rain chances will increase by the afternoon ahead of a cold front. As a result, occasional VSBY restrictions will be possible depending on where the heaviest shower activity develops. The rain will then taper off by tonight as drier air filters in overnight with VFR conditions then prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Marine conditions deteriorate this morning as showers and storms approach the northern waters then continue southeast. Winds and seas will increase through the day before diminishing on Friday. Shower and storm chances remain elevated through the weekend. A stronger cold front moves through on Monday, increasing winds and seas once again.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values stay above critical levels. Showers and storms move through today bringing some much need rain. Rain chances remain elevated through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 62 82 66 / 70 20 20 10 FMY 85 67 86 67 / 40 30 30 20 GIF 85 62 82 64 / 60 30 20 20 SRQ 81 62 84 66 / 60 20 20 20 BKV 83 55 84 59 / 70 20 10 10 SPG 81 65 82 69 / 60 20 20 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.