textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue to run well above average through the middle of the week with some record high temperatures possible each day.

- Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible during the next couple of mornings.

-A cold front is forecast to push through the region on Thursday, bringing the next round of rain chances area-wide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Strong ridging will remain over the area through Wednesday. This will keep the near record breaking high temperatures in place each afternoon with highs near 90 degrees away from the coast. The main difference for the first half of the week will be the lack of shower activity that we have seen since last Thursday. Even through we see a similiar PW values and a seabreeze setting up the 500 mb temperatures has warmed a few degrees. That doesn't seem like a big chance but it will keep us more stable which will prevent the showers from forming.

Our next cold front is expected to push through on Thursday. As it does do we should see a line of showers and storms push through the area sometime during the day that should give us some beneficial rain once again. This cold front will help to at least bring temperatures back down to average for next Friday. Another cold front will start to push through the southeast for the weekend which will allow the warmer and moist air to return. We will not see record highs but temperatures will get into the mid 80's with scattered showers each afternoon and evening.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Winds will remain light through the period with VFR conditions across most terminals. The main concern will be sea fog overnight that could drift inland impacting PIE with IFR ceiling and VIS.

MARINE

Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

winds will start to shift more northeasterly for Monday through Tuesday but speeds will remain light around 5 knots. The bigger concern will be sea fog developing Monday night into Tuesday morning. By Wednesday winds will shift more southeasterly in response to a cold front that will start to push through the southeast. This front will push through us during the day on Thursday producing a line of showers and storms. Behind the front will will quickly pick up out of the northwest with speeds around 15 to 20 knots. Winds will quickly be coming down on Friday with winds staying out of the north.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Near record breaking heat will continue through Wednesday with RHs staying above critical levels with dry conditions. A front will push through on Thursday bring a line of showers and storms with it.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 88 69 87 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 68 90 67 89 / 10 0 0 0 GIF 68 90 67 90 / 10 10 0 0 SRQ 66 86 66 85 / 0 10 0 0 BKV 61 90 61 89 / 0 10 0 0 SPG 71 87 72 85 / 0 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.