textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Strong ridging aloft in the southwest Atlantic with peak heights around 591-592 dam coupled with an expansive Bermuda high remains in full control across the Florida peninsula. This continues to promote unseasonably warm temperatures and rain-free conditions with breezy southeasterly winds at times but this stagnant pattern that has been locked in for much of this past week will start to break down later this weekend and into next week.

The southwest Atlantic ridge starts to move further offshore on Sunday as an upper level trough across the central US shifts eastward, though highs will still remain around 5-10 above normal but it should be a degree or two cooler along the coast. As the upper trough swings across the OH and TN valleys on Monday, it will drive a cold front across northern Florida during the day and the front will then sweep through central Florida on Monday night. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front should allow PWATs to reach around 1.7-1.8 inches as an organized line of showers and embedded storms approaches the Nature Coast late Monday. Deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer will be around 30-40 kts but MLCAPE values are forecast to be marginal around 500-1000 J/kg. These ingredients should be enough to support a risk of a few stronger wind gusts, though an isolated tornado appears to be less of a concern as the low level wind profile becomes unidirectional rather quickly. For now, SPC Day 3 Outlook has the northern Nature Coast in a Marginal risk on Monday to account for some of the stronger gust potential but the severe risk should be less further southward due to more unfavorable diurnal timing as instability should be decreasing by the time the front pushes through central Florida Monday night and then eventually into SWFL by Tuesday morning. Otherwise, rainfall amounts don't look to be anything too impressive at this point with most areas generally expecting to receive less than an inch, but a few locations could exceed that depending on how much convection materializes.

Drier and cooler air filters into the region by Tuesday in the wake of the frontal passage, though linger showers and a few storms may continue across SWFL and southern interior areas into Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will start to rebound by mid to late week as northeasterly low level flow develops with models showing a surface low/trough forming around the Bahamas before eventually lifting further offshore. Another frontal system may then approach the region by the end of the week as an upper level trough digs across the eastern US, but moisture return ahead of this system remains uncertain at this time so for now will keep PoPs out of the forecast through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period as high pressure remains in control. Breezy S-SE winds with occasional gusts of 20 kts or more will remain possible through the remainder of the day before SE winds decrease to 5-10 kts overnight. Winds then increase once again on Sunday with SE winds to start the day and shifting to S-SW by the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Warm and dry conditions continue through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure in the Atlantic remains in control. Winds will remain out of the SE through tonight before winds shift to the south to southwest on Sunday with seas around 2-4 ft. A cold front will then move across the area late Monday into Monday night with breezy southwest winds ahead of the front possibly approaching small craft advisory criteria at times, though exercise cautionary conditions will be more likely. In addition, a line of showers and embedded storms is forecast to accompany the frontal boundary before rain tapers off by Tuesday afternoon as the front departs southwest Florida. Building seas to 3-6 ft are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning in the wake of the frontal passage before seas subside somewhat mid to late week, though seas remain 2-4 ft across the Gulf waters with northeasterly flow developing.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Strong high pressure in the Atlantic will maintain warm and dry conditions with mainly south-southeast winds through the end of the weekend, though winds will start to become southwesterly late Sunday ahead of a cold front. Minimum RH values may occur particularly in interior areas at times through the remainder of the weekend, which combined with breezy conditions may keep fire danger elevated at times. Rain chances will start to increase from north to south on Monday as the cold front approaches and moves across central Florida Monday night, but the fire danger may increase again by mid week as drier air moves into the area in the wake of the frontal passage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 72 88 73 87 / 0 0 0 30 FMY 70 90 71 89 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 68 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 20 SRQ 70 87 72 87 / 0 0 0 30 BKV 65 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 40 SPG 72 85 74 84 / 0 0 0 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.