textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Increased shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend before decreasing early next week.

- Daily heat index values of 105+ degrees continue areawide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Warm and humid conditions continue this weekend although heat indices will mostly remain below advisory levels across the area in large part due to increased cloud cover and shower/storm coverage. W/NW flow aloft overspreads the state this morning south of E Seaboard troughing and ridging across the S Gulf into the W Atlantic, while surface ridging extends across the peninsula south of a frontal boundary draped across the Deep South. Shortwave impulses translating through the flow across the N Gulf will support shower/storm development this morning into early afternoon spreading from the N/E Gulf across Nature Coast and WCFL locations from around I-4 northward. Activity will become more widespread away from the immediate coast during the afternoon and evening hours with highest chances across the interior into parts of SWFL. Timing and coverage of the activity is expected to limit heat indices below advisory criteria although a few locations may briefly approach, primarily south of I-4. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coast with lower to mid 90s inland.

Similar outlook expected for Sunday, but with lower PoPs, as impulses continue to swing E/SE across the area with morning showers/storms possible across the E Gulf/Nature Coast before spreading inland and focusing over the interior during the afternoon and evening. Ridging builds a bit northward across the peninsula early next week as PWATs decrease slightly, limiting rain chances on Monday and Tuesday to isolated to scattered coverage mainly south of I-4. Ridging remains over the area mid to late week with daily isolated to scattered showers and storms, likely focusing away from the immediate coast as flow remains generally light to westerly locally. Highs remain in the upper 80s/lower 90s coastal to lower/mid 90s inland, with triple-digit heat indices continuing.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR likely through sunrise followed by morning shower/storm potential over the E Gulf spreading across coastal terminals late morning into early afternoon. Uncertainty in timing and duration prompted retaining VCTY mention into afternoon followed by PROB30 remainder of afternoon. No current TS mention with AM/early PM convection for TPA/PIE as guidance remains on the fence, however inclusion possible in later cycles as convection develops. Rain chances diminish late evening before similar evolution appears likely for Sunday. Winds onshore mainly 5-10 knots, highest afternoon into early evening.

MARINE

Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

No headlines anticipated through the period although showers and storms will be possible mainly across the northern and central waters over the weekend, most likely during the morning into early afternoon hours before shifting ashore. Locally higher winds and seas likely in/near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Warm and humid conditions expected through the period with minimal fire concerns. Higher shower and storm coverage through the weekend followed by slightly drier conditions early next week, particularly north of I-4, before again increasing mid to late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 80 93 80 / 30 10 10 0 FMY 93 78 94 78 / 40 10 10 0 GIF 95 75 95 76 / 60 20 30 0 SRQ 92 79 92 79 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 93 75 94 74 / 50 20 20 0 SPG 92 80 92 80 / 20 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.