textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns with storms that develop.

- Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A few showers continue to develop along the coast this afternoon. With plenty of moisture in place (this morning's sounding logged a 2.4" PWAT), storm coverage will expand inland along converging sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Later in the evening showers and storms could drift back towards the west coast. Main hazards today will be heavy downpours leading to localized flooding, frequent lightning, and strong gusty winds. Quiet conditions return overnight.

For Tuesday, the upper level ridge shifts a little further north which will reinforce a more easterly flow over the area. This will mean convection developing inland in the afternoon tomorrow, then moving towards the west coast later in the evening. By Wednesday dry air aloft and at the surface will move over most of FL ahead of an approaching upper level low, limiting rain chances, especially north of I4. The pressure gradient will also begin to tighten up between the upper level ridge and upper level low, increasing the NE winds. In fact with the lower dew points, and breezy northeast winds, conditions will feel slightly less summerlike Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. However, the slight hint at fall quickly fades back into summer like conditions by the end of the week as the upper level low continues west into the Gulf, wrapping moisture back over the area by the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with the only exception being showers and storms that develop and move near or over terminals. Passing showers/storms could drop ceilings and visibilities below VFR for a short period of time. Storms that develop inland this afternoon have the potential to drift back towards the coast later this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Main marine hazards to begin the week will be storms that develop or move over the waters. However, by mid week, marine conditions deteriorate as the pressure gradient tightens, increasing the NE winds, likely to advisory levels through early Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low through the period as plenty of moisture lingers over the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 90 77 89 / 30 60 30 20 FMY 76 92 76 91 / 50 50 30 60 GIF 75 91 75 90 / 40 60 20 30 SRQ 76 93 76 92 / 30 60 30 40 BKV 73 92 74 90 / 30 60 20 10 SPG 78 91 78 91 / 20 60 30 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.