textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot conditions expected to continue for the next several days. Heat Advisory today from 11 AM to 7 PM for all of west central and southwest Florida. - Below normal rain chances and coverage today into Monday, then increasing moisture from north to south returns rain chances closer to normal from Tuesday onward.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Morning sounding came in with PW still over 2 inches however high pressure is overhead. This is resulting in subsidence over the area that will prevent a lot of shower activity from forming today. However some isolated storms will still be around.
By early next week moisture will slowly return from north to south. Monday most of us will be staying dry except for scattered storms along the Nature Coast. By Tuesday I-4 will be the cut off with storms to the north and dry air to the south. By Wednesday we will see PW of 2+ inches across the whole state bring scattered storm chances for everyone from Wednesday through Friday.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
VFR conditions for the period with winds generally below 10 knots. Drier air will keep storm chances very low today.
MARINE
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Winds will be slowly shifting north and then westerly by Monday. Winds will remain out of the westerly direction through much of next work week. Storm chances through the period will remain low as we are seeing drier through Tuesday before moisture returns.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Drier air will be filtering in today with best storm chances in South Florida. Starting on Sunday the drier air will be sitting over much of the state limiting shower chances through at least Tuesday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 80 95 81 / 10 0 10 20 FMY 96 78 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 97 77 98 78 / 20 10 10 10 SRQ 94 78 93 79 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 95 76 94 78 / 10 0 10 30 SPG 93 81 93 82 / 10 0 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.
Gulf waters...None.
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