textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before a cold front brings in milder temperatures Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will spread south through the area Saturday and Saturday night, with a few strong or severe thunderstorms possible. Rain will clear out from north to south on Sunday.

- Winds will increase on Saturday, producing hazardous boating conditions over the coastal waters and a high risk of rip currents along area beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

A large upper-level low spins north of the Great Lakes through the weekend as shortwave energy moves across the northern Gulf coast region. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary north of Florida today will push southward across the peninsula starting Saturday, bringing showers and thunderstorms spreading south through the forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. A moist (dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s) and robust west/southwest flow will be in place during this time, with modest instability developing across the peninsula. This coupled with strong vertical wind shear will lead to a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms for the Nature Coast region, a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) risk for the Tampa Bay area, and a general thunderstorm risk for the rest of the forecast area. As far as timing, the evolution is a bit faster compared with this time yesterday, with storms moving into Levy county early afternoon, then Tampa Bay in the evening. With this, the main severe threat is likely limited to Levy/Citrus counties within a small window as the first storms start to move in. Then as we head through the rest of the day, high-res guidance shows the rain falling apart as the front shifts southward and then slows over south Florida tonight into Sunday. While rain chances decrease for much of the forecast area Sunday, the stalled frontal boundary coupled with some additional shortwave energy moving overhead will lead to additional rainfall developing late Sunday afternoon into the first part of Sunday night, but this will likely be limited to our southernmost counties.

High pressure with drier air moves in for early next week, then another frontal boundary moves into the southeast mid to late week, bringing some slight rain chances across the northern half of the area. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees above normal for Monday, then increase well above normal for the rest of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period. Overnight to morning low clouds are possible near TAF sites, however, there is uncertainty on how low cigs will get. Then, a cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing some periodic gusty winds and lower cigs/vsbys for area terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 353 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Southwest winds will remain below headlines through today and will then increase tonight into Saturday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, with advisory or exercise caution level winds continuing through Sunday before diminishing for early next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Saturday morning and continuing into Sunday morning. Rain chances will also increase starting tomorrow afternoon and will spread southward through the day, coming to an end tomorrow night. Dry weather is then expected through mid-week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

A dry air mass will hold in place today, with relative humidity percentages dropping to near critically low levels in the afternoon, mainly over the interior. Despite the dry air, wind speeds will not be high enough to produce widespread Red Flag conditions. Winds will increase on Saturday as a cold front moves in, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High dispersion indices are expected each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 73 87 64 81 / 0 70 70 20 FMY 71 90 70 82 / 0 30 80 60 GIF 69 92 64 80 / 0 70 80 20 SRQ 70 86 64 82 / 0 70 80 30 BKV 65 90 57 82 / 0 70 60 10 SPG 77 87 69 82 / 0 70 70 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to noon EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.