textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast during the morning hours and will push inland during the afternoon and evening for the next few days.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

New week, same forecast as south to southwesterly flow continues. Like the last few days, coastal showers and storms in the morning will continue to shift inland through the afternoon and early evening. Later, a few showers could drift back towards the coast, likely after sundown. This regime continues tomorrow and Wednesday. However, Saharan dust will begin to drift over South Florida Wednesday afternoon, bringing some dry air to the mid levels as it does. By Thursday, the SAL will cover the majority of the peninsula limiting rain chances Thursday and Friday. Unfortunately, with the drier conditions, temperatures will be on the rise, reaching the mid to upper 90s. SWFL, may have a better chance at shower activity Friday, even with the SAL lingering, as a little extra moisture enters the picture thanks to an upper level trough. The Saharan dust dissipates over the weekend and we return to a more typical summertime pattern.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Outside of any showers or storms in the vicinity of terminals, VFR conditions prevail. Flow remains mostly out of the southwest. Showers and storms will continue to push inland with the possibility of some drifting back towards the coast later tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Overall, quiet marine conditions prevail through the week. Scattered showers and storms develop early each morning and push onshore through the afternoon. Increase in winds and seas possible near storms as well as frequent lightning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as typical summer moisture remains in the area. A layer of Saharan dust is expected to move over the area later this week, drying out the midlevels. However, low level moisture will still be present.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 92 81 94 / 20 30 10 20 FMY 77 93 78 95 / 20 50 20 30 GIF 75 94 76 95 / 30 50 30 40 SRQ 79 93 79 94 / 20 30 10 20 BKV 75 94 75 95 / 20 30 10 20 SPG 81 92 81 94 / 20 30 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.