textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

-Unsettled weather is expected at times this weekend with daily showers and storm chances.

-Much cooler and drier air arrives early next week in the wake of a strong cold front.

-Fire danger may increase next week as much lower RH values are expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 821 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Moisture surging up from the south led to scattered to numerous showers and storms today, mainly south of the Tampa Bay along and east of Interstate 75. Some of these showers will continue to linger across southwest Florida and taper off by around midnight, with mostly rain free conditions then expected to hold overnight despite some cloudy skies.

The forecast looks on track with moisture and rain chances continuing to build through the weekend. A few minor adjustments were made to the rain chances for the next few hours. Otherwise, no significant changes were made for the evening forecast update.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 821 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue to linger across southwest Florida through around midnight, potentially impacting area terminals at times. Overnight, MVFR and patchy IFR ceilings are expected to develop, along with a few patches of fog, disrupting flight categories mainly after 06z, and mostly lifting out by around 14z Saturday. A few showers could develop during the morning, then more widespread showers and storms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Seas will be on a decreasing trend to start the weekend with seas falling to 1 ft or less on Saturday as lingering swell behind Thursday's cold front continues to subside. However, marine conditions will deteriorate again by late weekend and into early next week as a strong cold front moves across the Gulf waters on Monday and Monday night. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest on Monday ahead of the cold front but will shift to a northerly direction Monday night into Tuesday with seas possibly peaking around 7-9 ft. Thus, there is high confidence that headlines will be needed early next week as a result of this system. In addition, daily showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the weekend at times and ahead of Monday's cold front, where a line of showers and thunderstorms could accompany the frontal boundary as it moves through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 83 69 84 / 10 40 20 70 FMY 68 86 68 86 / 30 50 30 70 GIF 66 83 67 86 / 20 60 30 80 SRQ 67 84 67 84 / 20 40 20 70 BKV 60 83 62 86 / 10 50 20 70 SPG 71 84 72 84 / 10 40 20 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.