textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

-Temperatures remain near to below normal through Friday. Warmer on Saturday. Colder air returns late Sunday and Monday.

-Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday night through Monday.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 631 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 Canadian high pressure is established over the forecast area with cool dry air across the region. Tonight, the combination of light winds and clear skies will create ideal conditions for strong radiational cooling. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 30s across the nature coast, around 40 to the lower 40s central areas away from the coast, and mid to upper 40s south. Areas of frost will develop late tonight across the northern nature coast...and the frost advisory has been expanded to include inland Citrus county. Patchy frost will also develop in Hernando and Sumter counties.

After a chilly start to the day on Friday, temperatures will climb into the 70s across west central and southwest Florida under mostly sunny skies.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Overall, a beautiful day with blue skies and pleasant temperatures. The pleasant conditions brought to you today by a weak cold front that continues to move south out of the area, filtering in cool dry air behind it. With the cloudless skies overnight, temperatures will likely drop into the mid to up 30s (north) and low to mid 40s (south). Some patchy frost could be possible, especially for Levy County. The cool temperatures do not hang around long, with the weekend highs back in the 80s as high pressure builds over the area. Before you can get used to the warm temperatures, another cold front moves through Sunday dropping temperatures once again, for the beginning of next week. Overall, rain chances remain very minimal, even with the next approaching cold front. Conditions stay dry and mostly pleasant through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for the next 24 hours as mostly clear skies will persist across the region.

MARINE

Issued at 130 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Elevated winds this afternoon behind a weak cold front will begin to diminish overnight, and marine conditions will begin to improve thereafter. Another cold front is expected to move through Sunday, and winds will once again increase to cautionary levels through Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Dry air continues to filter in today and tomorrow behind a cold front, dropping RH values below critical levels. However, winds will remain light and variable during this time. Moisture increases into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 48 74 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 48 78 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 44 75 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 46 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 37 74 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 54 73 60 76 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal Levy- Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.