textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record warm high temperatures over inland areas each day through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Friday through Sunday across the northern Nature Coast and interior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

High pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean ridging west across the Florida peninsula will become suppressed to the south Thursday and Friday as a weakening cold front moves into north Florida. This boundary is still expected to stall across north Florida Saturday then lift back north Sunday as a stronger cold front moves east into the southeast states. This stronger front will approach and move across the region by Tuesday.

Moisture remains limited across the region through Thursday, then as the boundary moves into north Florida Friday we'll see an increase first across the Nature Coast, then across the entire area over the weekend. However, with the overall flow being out of the southwest the highest rain chances will be across the northern Nature Coast, the interior, and eastern half of the Florida peninsula through the weekend. Early next week we should see a chance of showers and thunderstorms everywhere ahead of the stronger front Monday into early Tuesday, followed by some drier air for the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF forecast period. Winds will shift to westerly at around 10 knots this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, become light southeast later this evening and overnight and then southwest at around 10 knots by late Thursday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Winds will shift to southwest to west over the next couple of days as a weak boundary drifts in from the north. Over the weekend the flow will become south to southwest again and with the boundary in the vicinity a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the northern waters. A stronger front approaches and moves across the waters early next week with increasing north to northeast winds setting up behind it by Tuesday. No headlines are expected at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Relative humidity values will dip to near critical levels over the interior again Thursday, but sustained winds are expected to remain less than 15 mph, so Red Flag conditions are not anticipated. An overall southwesterly flow will then setup through the weekend with increasing moisture keeping relative humidity values above critical levels late in the week through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 73 88 76 90 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 72 91 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 70 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 20 SRQ 71 87 74 88 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 67 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 74 88 76 90 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.