textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The active summertime pattern will continue through the week as high pressure remains to our north with an east to southeast flow across the region. Deep moisture, precipitable water >= 2 inches, will persist and become enhanced later in the week as the remnants of Dolly move across the peninsula. This will lead to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day moving out into the gulf at night. Highest rain chances should be along the coastal counties each day where the sea breeze collision occurs, but it does look like everyone has a good chance at seeing decent rainfall this week. May need a few Flood Advisories each afternoon/evening if storms line up over an area leading to flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas. Otherwise, no widespread severe weather is expected, but some of the storms could become rather strong and produce gusty winds up to 50 mph and frequent lightning.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

MVFR/occasional IFR conditions are expected in numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail. Winds will shift to onshore with the bay/sea breeze at TPA, PIE and SRQ early this afternoon and then west to northwest mid to late afternoon. Otherwise, the light east to southeast winds are expected to continue through Monday morning. Gusty erratic winds will be possible in and near any convection.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

High pressure will remain north of the waters through the week with an easterly flow continuing. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous mainly evening and overnight showers and thunderstorms which could produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

No fire weather hazards are expected. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels through the period. Numerous to widespread mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 91 77 90 / 40 70 50 80 FMY 76 93 76 92 / 40 70 40 80 GIF 75 93 75 92 / 30 70 40 80 SRQ 75 92 76 92 / 50 70 50 80 BKV 72 92 73 91 / 40 70 40 80 SPG 77 90 77 89 / 50 70 50 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.