textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures through Thursday, turning colder Friday and over the weekend. - Little in the way of rain expected through the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

High pressure remains just off the east of Florida giving us light winds and around average temperatures. This trend will continue into our Wednesday.

By Thursday a strong and quick moving cold front will push through the area. This could spark a few showers mainly along the coast but most will stay dry as the front pushes through. After frontal passage we will see the coldest air of the season settle across the Florida. High will struggle to get into the 70 Friday afternoon.

By Saturday morning most of us away from the coast will be waking up in the 40's with highs in the 60's. We will have one more colder morning on Sunday before the air mass starts to modify with highs back in the 70's by Sunday afternoon.

As we head into early next week there is some difference in model solutions. Both deterministic GFS and Euro show a low riding along the southern jet and impacting Florida. The difference is timing and how much moisture will be associated with it. GFS is quicker with it over us Monday night/Tuesday morning and a little drier while EURO is slower. Euro has it coming through Tuesday afternoon and evening with more moisture. Right now now we will keep lower PoPs through early next week. Temperatures will also be on the rise with highs back in the upper 70's with lows in the 60's.

As we head into Thursday and Friday ridging will start to shift overhead as our upper level flow turns more northerly. This will dry us out and keep temperatures slightly above average with lows in the upper 60's and highs in the mid 80's.

Saturday looks to be very similiar to our Thursday and Friday. However, by Sunday morning we will see our next cold front push through the area. This front will not bring a lot of shower activity but will bring some cooler air. Models right now showing lows in the low 60's with highs in the mid to upper 70's for next Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions through the period with winds generally below 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Light winds will remain over the area through Wednesday. By Thursday we will see a quick moving cold front push through behind it. After frontal passage we will see the winds increase through the afternoon and evening. Winds will peak around 15 to 20 knots Thursday night out of the northwest and stay elevated through Friday. By the weekend we will see winds shifting more north then northwest and they will drop slight but still remain around 15 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

We will see mostly dry conditions through the weekend with no fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 83 69 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 86 72 85 70 / 10 10 10 20 GIF 85 69 84 63 / 0 20 10 0 SRQ 83 70 81 69 / 0 10 10 10 BKV 84 64 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 81 70 79 69 / 0 0 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.