textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Maximum heat indices will climb to around 108 degrees across the Nature Coast this afternoon, otherwise daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees are expected through the week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Afternoon showers and storms are beginning to materialize, with further development expected as the afternoon continues. Similar to the past couple of days, storms will be slow moving, with isolated heavy downpours possible. SPC has placed most of west central FL in a marginal risk(1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Storms that develop have the potential for strong, damaging winds and frequent lightning.

As the week continues, strong upper level ridging builds over the eastern US allowing a more easterly flow. Moisture increases as cool front moves into north Florida Tuesday. Deep moisture over the area will keep PoPs high through the remainder of the week. Flow will remain light so storms will be slow moving allowing for locally heavy rainfall. WPC has placed most of the forecast area in marginal risk (1 of 5) for excessive rainfall Tuesday. Localized minor urban flooding could be possible with any storm.

Unfortunately, each day before the rain provides relief, temperatures will continue to run in the low to mid 90s with heat indices reaching into the triple digits.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Mostly VFR conditions continue. The exception will be any afternoon shower or storm developing near or over TAF sites. Best chance of showers will be inland and West Central FL. Conditions clear overnight and return to VFR. Ample moisture moving over the area tomorrow will lead to more widespread showers and storms.

MARINE

Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Light flow through the week will keep boating conditions pleasant. The main concern will be showers and storms that develop or move over the waters generating locally rough seas and gusty winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the week as ample moisture lingers over the area. Showers and storms expected each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 92 78 92 / 10 70 30 70 FMY 78 95 77 94 / 10 50 30 80 GIF 77 94 76 93 / 30 80 20 60 SRQ 79 93 77 93 / 10 60 40 80 BKV 76 94 73 94 / 10 70 20 50 SPG 81 92 79 93 / 10 70 40 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Levy-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.