textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool start today, then warming trend through mid week.

DISCUSSION

Upper level trough over the region early this morning to move into the W Atlantic as surface high pressure in the Deep South weakens and shifts eastward. The NE-E low level flow over FL will slowly increase temps and humidity this afternoon and continue through mid week.

A southern stream shortwave is expected to move from Mexico across the W Gulf as it gets picked up and absorbed into the E US longwave trough pushing a cold front through the region Thursday night into Friday morning. Moisture and instability are expected to remain limited with this system which will bring a chance of showers to the area with the higher PoPs over N FL.

Another surface high pressure area will build into and through the region with drier conditions for weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue next 24 hours under mostly clear skies and light NE winds.

MARINE

High pressure in the region will weaken today through mid week with winds and seas subsiding. A cold front will move through the E Gulf with showers ahead of the front Thursday night into Friday. Another high pressure area will build into the region with gusty northerly winds and seas into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure in the region will weaken today through mid week with a warming trend and increasing low level moisture. A cold front will move through the region with showers ahead of the front Thursday night into Friday. Another high pressure area will build into the region with drier conditions returning into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 51 74 58 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 74 56 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 66 51 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 71 53 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 65 42 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 68 56 74 60 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.