textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through early next week.

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms will develop each day through the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

We are slowly seeing a pattern shift today. Looking at the morning skew-t we can see surface winds coming out of the southeast instead of southwest and PW above 2 inches. Even though we are seeing that wind shift at the surface the upper level flow still remains more southwesterly. This means are mean flow is out of the south. This southerly flow will favor storm chances over the inland areas. Best chance for the west coast to see storms will be in the evening as outflow boundaries start to set up. This trend will continue through Friday.

As we go into the weekend the ridge shifts farther north which will allow the flow in the mid levels to shift southeasterly means our mean flow which will also be southeast. This means the focus of storms will shift closer to the west coast of Florida in the late afternoon and evening hours. This trend with favorable storms on the west coast will continue through next Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

We are seeing moisture returning to the mid and upper levels today which should bring more thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening. Our weak southerly flow should keep the higher chances in SW Florida and in the interior. VFR conditions and winds below 10 knots expected outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Winds will remain light and out of the south through our Saturday. Isolated storms will be possible each day. A we head into our Sunday high pressure shifts north which will cause our winds to shift easterly and increase to around 5 to 10 knots. Best chance of storms for Sunday will be in the evening hours as they push off the west coast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Deeper layer moisture has pushed back into the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the weekend. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 77 90 77 / 40 30 50 20 FMY 94 76 92 76 / 60 40 50 30 GIF 95 74 93 75 / 80 60 70 30 SRQ 92 75 91 76 / 30 30 40 30 BKV 92 72 91 72 / 40 30 50 20 SPG 91 77 89 78 / 30 30 40 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.