textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
- Above normal temps with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees in the afternoons continue through the week. - Increasing shower and storm chances expected through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 The surface ridge axis remains across north Florida today, with a light southeast flow continuing across the local area. This will allow the west coast sea breeze to develop and continue to push inland, reaching just east of the I-75 corridor. There will be a pretty typical scattering of storms through the rest of the day, but this area will be where the best rain chances reside before diminishing after dark. Tomorrow is more of a transition day as the surface high starts to shift south. This will give us a more westerly flow across the forecast area that continues through the weekend and into next week, marking a return to the pattern of early morning showers and storms over the Gulf that shift onshore and then eventually inland and over to the east coast by the afternoon and evening hours.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of showers and thunderstorms. Most activity will diminish by 02Z or so, then a quiet overnight is expected. Flow shifts to onshore for tomorrow, with most storms expected east of the terminals.
MARINE
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 High pressure will prevail with no headlines expected. Winds become west to southwest starting Friday and continuing through the weekend, with the best rain chances overnight into the morning hours.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative humidity values remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 90 79 91 / 20 40 10 20 FMY 77 91 76 92 / 30 60 20 60 GIF 75 93 75 94 / 40 70 40 50 SRQ 77 90 78 91 / 10 30 10 20 BKV 74 92 76 93 / 20 30 10 20 SPG 79 90 79 92 / 20 30 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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