textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 302 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the next week.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop each afternoon this week, with the highest rain chances generally over the interior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is extending from the western Atlantic across southern Florida, keeping west and southwest flow in place across west central and southwest Florida today and Tuesday. Under this pattern, a few showers will shift onshore from the Gulf during the morning hours, then isolated to scattered showers will develop over the Florida Peninsula during the afternoon and shift east into the interior through the early evening hours. On Tuesday, a frontal boundary is forecast to stall out north of the area, with pooling moisture south of this boundary allowing rain chances to increase slightly over the northern half of the forecast area.

As the aforementioned front stalls out through the rest of the week, the surface ridge will shift east into the Atlantic Wednesday, resulting in a more southerly to southwesterly flow pattern that will hold through the rest of the week. A pocket of relatively drier air aloft will lift northeast into the area on Wednesday, limiting rain chances for much of the forecast area. Moisture and rain chances will then increase again on Thursday through and hold through the weekend. Under the southerly/southwesterly flow, the axis of highest rain chances will still be over the interior for the later half of the week, but this pattern will allow for somewhat higher rain chances along the west coast than what is forecast for today through Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A few showers will be possible shifting onshore during the morning hours, potentially causing brief flight category disruptions as showers move over area terminals. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon, although the highest rain chances will generally be east of area terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

High pressure remaining south of the waters today and Tuesday will keep west and southwest flow in place. Rain chances over the northern coastal waters will increase slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak front stalls out to the north, allowing moisture to increase over the northeastern Gulf. Winds become more southerly Wednesday through Friday as the ridge shifts east into the Atlantic. No headlines are expected this week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

West and southwest flow will continue today and Tuesday, keeping deep moisture over the area with no concerns for low humidity. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop each day, with the highest rain chances over the interior.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 81 91 80 / 20 10 30 20 FMY 91 79 92 78 / 20 10 20 10 GIF 94 76 94 76 / 20 10 40 10 SRQ 91 80 91 79 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 92 78 92 76 / 20 10 30 20 SPG 91 81 91 81 / 20 10 30 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.