textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf during the late night and early morning hours will move onshore each morning and then shift inland during the afternoon hours through Tuesday.

- Light southerly flow sets up during midweek with a more typical summertime pattern of scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Southwesterly flow continues today and tomorrow as a high pressure ridge stays parked over south Florida. This will favor late night/ early morning showers and storms developing over the Gulf and moving onshore. Showers and storms will push further inland by the afternoon. Though dry air aloft today may limit rain coverage, keeping showers more isolated or scattered.

By midweek, the ridge will shift further north, bringing lighter southerly flow. Rain chances will once again increase as deep moisture returns, leading to more scattered and widespread showers and storms. Heading into the weekend, the ridge moves north of the area and the pattern becomes a more typical summertime pattern with easterly flow favoring afternoon showers and thunderstorms along sea breeze boundaries.

Temperatures through the week will remain in the low to mid 90s. Triple digit heat indices will be possible each afternoon, but should remain below heat advisory criteria.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Southwesterly flow will favor showers and storms moving onshore in the morning before pushing inland in the afternoon. Though, dry air could limit convection today keeping confidence low on impacts to terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Marine conditions remain quiet over the next few days with southwesterly flow less than 15 kts. The one concern each day will be showers and storms that develop over the waters, likely overnight and early morning hours. Elevated winds and seas as well as frequent lightning are possible in any storm.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

No major fire weather concerns through the period as RH values remain above critical levels and winds remain less than 15 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 79 90 77 / 40 10 20 10 FMY 94 77 95 77 / 20 10 20 20 GIF 94 75 94 75 / 30 10 40 10 SRQ 91 78 92 76 / 30 10 10 10 BKV 92 73 91 72 / 40 20 40 10 SPG 89 79 90 79 / 30 10 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.