textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions continue with near record high temperatures and heat index values of up to 105 and then higher for midweek.

- Decreasing rain chances during the upcoming week.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 734 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 High broken ceilings across much of the area this evening due to remnants of earlier convection over the north and interior. A band of showers and thunderstorms was currently located over the northern coastal waters and is moving southeast at about 25 MPH. Potential for brief heavy rain and wind gusts to 40 MPH along the coast between 9 and 10 PM from about Hernando Beach to St Pete Beach if the line maintains structure for the next couple of hours.

Otherwise, decreasing cloudiness across much of west central and southwest Florida overnight with skies becoming partly cloudy late.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Weak high pressure remains in place aloft this afternoon while the surface ridge axis extends across south Florida, keeping a westerly flow across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to form through the rest of the afternoon and generally shift toward the east coast by this evening. As we head into tomorrow and early next week, mid-level troughing will shift over the southeast with a weak and stalling boundary north of the Florida peninsula. While we will see scattered storms for tomorrow across the Nature Coast closer to the boundary and over the interior as the sea breeze moves inland, the rest of the week will feature lower rain chances as another Saharan air layer is forecast to move over the state. The bigger issue is going to be the heat, with at least upper 90s for highs across the interior (if not triple digits in some spots) and lower to mid 90s elsewhere. Heat indices will also likely increase back up to advisory range.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 734 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Potential for a shower or thunderstorm at PIE/TPA around or just after 10 PM this evening with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals overnight with decreasing high cloudiness. Predominately dry conditions expected on Monday with SCT040-050 SCT250 developing at all terminals Monday afternoon, with the exception of PIE/SRQ which are not likely to have the lower CU due to onshore flow off the water.

MARINE

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Winds and seas will remain below headlines over the next few days. Scattered showers are possible mainly off the Nature Coast region, with lower chances for the rest of the waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with no Red Flag concerns over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 93 81 93 / 10 30 10 10 FMY 78 96 78 96 / 10 20 10 10 GIF 76 96 75 97 / 10 30 10 10 SRQ 79 94 79 94 / 10 10 10 10 BKV 75 93 74 94 / 20 50 20 20 SPG 81 93 81 93 / 10 20 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.