textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 817 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Be prepared to alter outdoor events if lightning and thunder are seen or heard.

- The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will range from late night and morning near the west coast then shifting inland into the interior by late afternoon and evening each day through Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 837 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026 Latest radar imagery shows dry conditions this evening across west central and SWFL as most of today's convective activity in the region was focused along the eastern portions of the peninsula. With onshore flow continuing and a warm and humid airmass remaining in place ahead of a decaying frontal boundary near the GA/FL border, the forecast thinking for the overnight hours into Monday morning remains the same with scattered shower activity possible at times. While rain chances overnight into Monday will be a bit higher across the Nature Coast where onshore flow will be a bit more pronounced, there may also be a secondary area of higher rain chances across southern marine zones and nearby SWFL region where shortwave energy is rotating around a northern Caribbean mid-level ridge axis. Regardless, any precip activity that does manage to develop is expected to be on the lighter side with isolated to scattered coverage. Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy and muggy evening with overnight lows not dropping below 80 around some coastal areas, though lows in the mid/upper 70s will be more common elsewhere.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026 No major changes to the forecast philosophy. An upper low continues to spin over the northeast with ridging south of Florida while weak high pressure holds at the surface. Onshore flow will remain across the region through the next couple of days with this pattern, with the best rain chances for the interior and east coast of Florida each afternoon and evening.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, upper troughing will dig across the U.S. east coast, with a frontal boundary moving into Florida. This will lead to higher rain chances across the forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday before high pressure builds into the southeast. This will pull in drier air for the end of the week, with lower rain chances, though with a switch to easterly flow, whatever convection does form will be closer to the west coast each afternoon and evening. We'll also see some lower dew points to end the week, which should make humidity levels slightly more tolerable.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 717 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026 Weak high pressure will continue to maintain a mostly westerly wind flow throughout the period with winds falling to less than 5 kts overnight and increasing to around 5-10 kts on Monday with occasionally higher gusts. Some scattered shower activity may occur on Monday mainly in the morning to early afternoon hours, but precip activity should be light with minimal restrictions so VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the period.

MARINE

Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026 High pressure will remain over the waters through the next several days, with westerly winds continuing. No headlines are expected, but scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and rough seas, mainly during the overnight and morning hours each day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative humidity values remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 89 80 90 / 10 30 10 20 FMY 79 92 80 92 / 10 10 10 20 GIF 77 91 77 92 / 10 30 20 50 SRQ 80 91 80 91 / 10 20 10 20 BKV 78 90 77 91 / 10 40 20 30 SPG 81 92 81 92 / 10 20 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.