textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler temperatures return tonight.

- High fire danger the entire forecast area this afternoon. - Hazardous marine conditions expected through Monday night into Tuesday along with a high risk for rip currents.

UPDATE

Issued at 744 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Winds are starting to show signs of gradually subsiding as latest surface obs generally show gusts around 20 mph or less compared to some of the 30-35 mph gusts that were observed earlier today. This weakening trend will continue into Tuesday as the center of the surface high eventually slides across the FL peninsula tomorrow and the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, below freezing temperatures are still on track for a large portion of the area tonight with the exception of coastal zones. Thus, no changes are planned to the Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory this evening as the ongoing forecast remains in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Cold, dry air continues to advect into the area from the north today. Temperatures tonight will drop at or below freezing everywhere, except coastal areas. Luckily, breezy conditions will taper off overnight, reducing the impact of the wind chill. However, with winds decreasing overnight, the development of frost becomes more likely, especially for counties north of I4. Close to freezing temperatures hang around Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with more areas of frost likely to develop. By mid week high pressure builds back into the area allowing temperatures to gradually warm. The 80s return by Thursday and continue into the weekend.

Another cold front is expected to move through Friday into Saturday bringing a moderate chance of showers as it does. Unlike the most recent cold front, the current forecast shows little impact to temperatures following the next front.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

A very dry air mass across the region will provide clear skies and VFR conditions throughout the period. Breezy NW surface winds at the start of the TAF period will gradually subside overnight into Tuesday, though NNW winds around 5-10 kts are still expected tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 132 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Hazardous marine conditions continue through tomorrow. Though winds will begin to diminish overnight, with seas following, there will still be an increased risk of rip currents through Tuesday morning. High pressure moves in by mid week keeping winds below headline criteria through the remainder of the week. A cold front is expected to move through Friday into Saturday, bringing a moderate chance of showers over the waters as it does.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 132 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Fire dangers remain elevated through the afternoon with gusty winds and RH values below critical levels everywhere, except along the coast. Low RH values continue through midweek, however winds should stay below 15mph. By Friday another cold front moves towards the area, increasing moisture and bringing a moderate chance of showers.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 38 61 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 37 66 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 34 62 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 38 60 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 27 60 31 72 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 45 61 51 71 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.