textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot conditions continue with near record high temperatures and heat index values of up to 110.
- Dry conditions can be expected for next work week
UPDATE
Issued at 1004 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Fairly dry conditions across the peninsula this morning. Upper level high pressure building to the north while troughiness remains to the east as disturbances move across the SE. At the surface, high pressure remains east keeping light south to southeasterly flow in place. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon and evening over the interior and outflow boundaries will push convection back towards the coast during the evening hours. The additional upper level energy will support strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes. Residents and visitors should remain weather aware, especially if planning to be outdoors.
On the other hand, the delay in storms will bring hot and humid conditions to the region. A Heat Advisory remains in effect as heat indices are expected to reach 108 degrees state- wide. The public is urged to limit outdoor activities, stay hydrated and if outside, take breaks indoors.
No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 743 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026
VFR conditions prevail through of the period. THen, rain chances increase, however, dry Saharan Dust will impact storm coverage this afternoon. The highest chances remain over the interior with convection pushing back towards the coast in the evening. MVFR/IFR conditions where thunderstorms develop. VFR conditions should fully return tonight.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 81 93 82 / 40 30 30 10 FMY 94 78 96 79 / 40 10 10 10 GIF 96 76 96 77 / 50 30 40 10 SRQ 94 79 94 80 / 30 10 10 10 BKV 97 75 95 76 / 30 30 40 10 SPG 93 81 93 82 / 30 20 20 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.
Gulf waters...None.
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