textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall mainly in urban areas with the higher thunderstorm activity each day through much of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The most intense thunderstorm activity has transitioned to SWFL and off the Tampa Bay and Nature Coast into the Gulf. Across much of West Central Florida, stratiform rain has filled in, and looks to linger for a couple more hours yet. In SWFL, new thunderstorm activity continues to occur, and this may continue for another hour or so yet before beginning to gradually subside in the next 2 to 3 hours as well. It will be hard to sustain it longer than that given the loss of daytime heating and westward-propagating outflow boundaries that should further undercut low-level instability.

With the flow expected to shift early tomorrow, it looks like thunderstorm activity over the Gulf may never quite fully subside overnight. Shortly after the sun rises, this convection may begin to push convection back towards the coast, with SWFL likely seeing the earliest storms tomorrow, followed by the Tampa Bay and Nature Coast regions late morning and finally the interior by early afternoon. The earlier initiation may allow for an earlier cessation near the coast too; but if storms move in early enough, it could also support a secondary round of convection later in the day.

Because of the aforementioned setup, a few adjustments to the POPs and overall weather forecast have been made. Rain chances have been tweaked for the next few hours, and then increased along the coast, especially in SWFL, earlier in the day. Haven't messed with afternoon POPs much because not quite confident enough to reduce the rain chances later in the day just yet. That can monitored and adjusted with the overnight package depending on trends.

Otherwise, the forecast looks good. A fairly typical late summer pattern continues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

An upper level trough off the east coast it helping to fuel extra moisture over the state today. PW this morning was around 2.3 which even for Florida is high. The record for the 12z sounding on this date is 2.41. This along with our easterly winds will help to bring widespread showers and storms to the west coast of Florida this afternoon and evening. We will see much of the same conditions on our Thursday.

By Friday and into the weekend this upper level trough will move closer to the state. This will shift our winds more southwesterly. Typically this would reduce storm chances for the west coast, which it will, but not as much as we typically see. This is because the high PWs will still keep PoPs around 60 along the coast with 80 or 90 in inland locations. This trend will last through Monday.

By next Tuesday the upper level trough will be gone as winds shift more southerly. Still PW will remain above 2 with scattered showers and storms still expected with only a small decrease in coverage expected.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Thunderstorm activity continues across the region this evening. Near SWFL terminals, new storms are still developing. Meanwhile, most of the thunderstorm activity across the central interior and Tampa Bay region is beginning to wind down; but stratiform rain continues to linger with the occasional lightning strike. Over the next few hours, most of the activity should subside, with a fairly quiet overnight period. Towards morning, the residual moisture does favor some lower clouds, which could lead to a brief period of MVFR, with the greatest potential around Tampa Bay and interior terminals. However, it cannot be completely ruled out across SWFL either; its just too low for direct mention. As the flow veers to a more SSW direction tomorrow, expecting early thunderstorms across SWFL, with a slightly earlier time-frame for the Tampa Bay area than today, but likely still in the afternoon. This flow sticks around for the next few days. With ample moisture and instability remaining, this suggests that earlier thunderstorm timing should be anticipated for the next few days.

MARINE

Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Winds will shift to a more southerly direction tonight and remain that way through our Saturday. However, speeds will remain around 5 to 10 knots. Deep tropical moisture will result in best storm chances in the evening and early overnight hours as storms push off the coast. However we will also see some isolated showers each morning in the Gulf.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Deeper layer moisture has pushed back into the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the weekend. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 89 77 90 / 60 70 30 80 FMY 77 91 77 92 / 60 60 30 80 GIF 75 92 76 94 / 40 70 40 90 SRQ 76 90 77 92 / 60 60 30 70 BKV 73 91 73 92 / 40 70 30 90 SPG 77 89 78 90 / 60 70 30 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.