textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1207 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Not much change to the overall forecast reasoning. Relatively stagnant pattern through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend as surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will produce east to southeast boundary layer flow across the peninsula for the next several days. The west coast sea breeze boundary will develop each afternoon with the east/southeast flow holding the boundary over the coastal counties. Highest pops will be about 20 to 40 miles inland each day through the weekend, which will be the location of the west coast sea breeze boundary during the late afternoon/early evening hours.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon along the boundary with the greatest areal coverage from the Tampa Bay area and south. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH and small hail.

TUTT cell off the Florida east coast will be quasi-stationary today and Friday. This will in effect create lower heights over west central and southwest Florida which will aid in increasing convective instability. The TUTT will exit over the weekend allowing an U/L ridge to build over the forecast area thus increasing large scale subsidence over the Florida peninsula. Scattered to numerous afternoon showers/storms are still expected to develop along the west coast sea breeze boundary over the weekend as the increased subsidence will likely be offset by slightly warmer temps/increased low level instability.

Offshore flow will aid in continuing above normal daily temperatures across west central and southwest Florida through the period with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. The increased subsidence over the weekend will allow temperatures to climb even a few degrees higher.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the night under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop during the mid/late afternoon hours. Best chance of storms will be at PGD/FMY/RSW with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs...and storms will likely be just to the east of TPA/PIE/SRQ, however they may move back toward the coast/terminals during the evening hours. Wind gusts to 40 MPH and small hail will be possible with a few stronger storms.

MARINE

Issued at 1207 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each day which will push locally offshore during the afternoon/evening hours causing locally strong winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1207 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold across the forecast area for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 76 92 78 / 20 20 30 20 FMY 92 75 93 76 / 50 30 50 10 GIF 92 74 93 75 / 40 30 30 20 SRQ 91 75 92 76 / 20 20 20 20 BKV 94 72 94 72 / 20 20 30 20 SPG 93 77 93 78 / 20 10 20 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.