textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this week. Strong gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are possible.

- Hot and humid summertime conditions continue with heat index values of 100 to 107 daily. Practice heat safety when spending time outdoors.

DISCUSSION

Lingering convection in SW FL expected to continue to slowly wane with clearing conditions for the morning commute.

Weak upper TUTT over Cuba continues to wrap a combination of dry air aloft but also a few embedded upper impulses that have been producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. This feature is expected to meander over the region through the week At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is expected to wash out in the Deep South keeping weak ridging across the S FL Peninsula and SE Gulf. A general W-WNW flow will persist through the week as with convection near coastal areas during the morning then shifting inland late afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong with gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Temp to remain hot and humid with daily heat index values in the triple digits but below heat advisory criteria.

Guidance continues to indicate troughing along the eastern U.S. seaboard into the E Gulf this weekend and into early next week with increasing moisture and higher rain chances to the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Lingering TSRA around SW FL terminal continues to wane and expect VFR conditions by 08Z. Winds becoming west to northwest 5 to 10 knots late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Rain and storm chances remain on the low side for Wednesday, so will only mention PROB30 at LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW after 19Z.

MARINE

Weak high pressure over the region will keep the west to northwest flow over the eastern Gulf waters through the week with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The flow may increase late in the week with slightly elevated, choppy, and short period seas into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Weak high pressure will remain over the region keeping the warm and humid summertime conditions in place. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorm are expected each day with gusty erratic winds and frequent lightning possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 81 93 82 / 10 10 10 20 FMY 97 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 10 GIF 96 76 95 77 / 20 10 20 20 SRQ 94 80 95 81 / 10 10 20 20 BKV 94 76 94 77 / 20 20 20 30 SPG 93 81 94 82 / 10 10 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.