textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 910 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue. - A summertime pattern will continue through midweek. Slightly cooler and drier air will start to move in Friday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 910 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Morning TBW sounding continuing to indicate abundant moisture, precipitable water around 2.1 inches, and light southeast flow. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon as the sea breezes moves inland with more convection popping up along outflow boundaries over inland areas. This convection should then drift back toward the west coast and out into the eastern gulf this evening. Current forecast looks on track with no changes needed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 910 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Some areas of IFR ceilings early this morning will lift by 15z. MVFR/occasional IFR conditions will then be possible in scattered convection this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected into tonight. Winds will remain rather light and variable for much of the TAF forecast period, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Currently at the surface, strong high pressure is holding over eastern Canada, as a weak surface trough sits over the southern Gulf and another surface low is beginning to develop off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. This pattern will keep weak east and southeast flow in place today and Wednesday across the forecast area, with deep tropical moisture fueling scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day. Under this pattern, a few showers and storms are expected to be developing over the southeastern Gulf during the late night and early morning hours, potentially shifting into southwest Florida during the morning, then higher storm chances are expected across the area during the afternoon and early evening hours. Otherwise, temperatures will remain seasonal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and morning lows in the low to mid 70s.

During the second half of the week, the coastal low off the Mid- Atlantic will deepen, eventually pulling a backdoor cold front into Florida by late Thursday. This will lead to increasing northeast winds Thursday through the start of the weekend, advecting in a somewhat cooler and drier air mass. While afternoon high temperatures will only drop a couple of degrees, morning lows will be noticeably cooler, dropping into the mid 60s to low 70s by the weekend. Additionally, surface dew points will fall into the 60s by the weekend, which should make the air feel slightly less humid. Otherwise, the drier air behind the front will limit rain chances Friday through early next week, especially north of Interstate 4.

MARINE

Issued at 243 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

High pressure north of the waters and an area of low pressure over the southern Gulf will keep easterly and southerly winds in place through the next few days. Wind speeds will increase Thursday and Friday as the ridge of high pressure pushes south, with exercise caution or possibly advisory headlines being needed at times through the weekend. Otherwise daily thunderstorms will create gusty winds and rough seas in the vicinity of the strongest storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 243 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

High pressure will hold north of Florida through midweek, with light winds and ample humidity. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop each day, mainly in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 76 90 76 / 40 20 50 10 FMY 89 76 89 75 / 60 30 60 20 GIF 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 50 10 SRQ 90 76 90 75 / 40 30 60 20 BKV 92 73 92 72 / 40 30 60 10 SPG 88 77 90 77 / 30 20 50 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.