textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf during the late night and early morning hours will move onshore each morning and then shift inland during the afternoon hours through Tuesday.

- Light southerly flow sets up during midweek with a more typical summertime pattern of scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

High pressure ridge will remain across south Florida through Tuesday with the southwesterly flow continuing across the area. There will be enough moisture to allow isolated to scattered late night and early morning showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf to develop and move onshore each morning and then shift inland during the afternoon hours. During midweek the ridge axis drifts north across the region with a light southerly flow setting up. Deeper moisture will return with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected Wednesday through Friday. Next weekend the ridge axis is expected to be north of the forecast area allowing for a more typical easterly flow to become established and with plenty of moisture we should continue to see scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection each day. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect TPA, PIE, LAL, and SRQ through about 21Z with MVFR/occasional IFR conditions. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

West to southwest winds will remain over the waters for the next couple of days then shift to southerly during midweek and eventually southeast next weekend. No headlines are expected as winds should remain 15 knots, except gusty and erratic near scattered showers and thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as relative humidity values remain well above critical thresholds and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 91 79 91 / 10 30 10 20 FMY 77 95 78 95 / 10 20 10 20 GIF 74 95 75 95 / 10 30 10 30 SRQ 78 92 78 92 / 10 20 10 20 BKV 73 93 73 92 / 10 30 10 40 SPG 79 90 79 90 / 10 20 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.