textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Thunderstorm coverage will increase today, but will remain limited across the Nature Coast. A few stronger storms may produce strong gusty winds and hail.

- Higher rain chances are forecast across the area Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 An U/L low will move slowly across the central Florida peninsula today with an associated pocket of cold air aloft over the region. This will enhance convective instability and the risk for damaging wind gusts and possibly hail with stronger storms. An isolated severe storm can't be ruled out mainly during the mid/late afternoon hours.

The U/L low will move over the eastern Gulf on Sunday and Monday creating southerly mid level winds over the forecast area. This will advect slightly deeper moisture over the region with continued enhanced instability. This will increase areal coverage of afternoon showers/storms with highest pops over southwest Florida. Mid level temps may not be quite as cold, but the risk for a few stronger storms with damaging wind gusts will again be possible each day.

An U/L disturbance and associated S/W trough will dig across the Ohio River Valley Tuesday and Wednesday which will lift the U/L low over the eastern Gulf northeast and will finally absorb the system as the northern stream U/L trough moves to the eastern seaboard late Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers/storms are expected across west central and southwest Florida each day.

An U/L ridge will build over the Lower Mississippi Valley and will extend across the Florida peninsula on Thursday decreasing pops a bit...but a retrograding pattern will develop with the U/L ridge slowly pushing west and a rex block briefly developing over the northeast and mid Atlantic coast...which will induce U/L troughing to develop over Florida. Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon shower/storms will still be expected across the forecast area each day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Patchy low clouds may develop around sunrise, mainly vcnty TPA/PIE/LAL, otherwise mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the morning hours. Areas of VFR CIGs will develop this afternoon 035-045 across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs which may impact terminals for a few hours mainly during the mid/late afternoon hours, with the best chance at PGD/FMY/RSW.

MARINE

Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the weekend and into early next week with winds and seas below cautionary levels. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 74 88 75 / 50 20 60 40 FMY 90 74 89 74 / 60 40 70 50 GIF 90 73 90 73 / 60 20 70 20 SRQ 90 74 89 74 / 50 30 70 50 BKV 91 71 91 71 / 60 10 60 20 SPG 88 76 88 76 / 50 30 60 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.