textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost expected over inland areas tonight into early Wednesday morning.

- Critically low relative humidity expected this afternoon away from the coast, and again Wednesday afternoon over the interior. - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Surface high pressure will move over the region early tonight and exit to the east late tonight. This will allow for good radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. However, as the high shifts east of the area overnight the winds off the surface will shift to south to southwest and increase which should be enough to prevent a widespread freeze across the Nature Coast. We will still see some freezing temperatures in localized spots over inland parts of the Nature Coast, but the main issue tonight will be frost across most inland areas as dew points climb some. Will therefore continue with the Frost Advisory for late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

During Wednesday through Friday the high will move well east out into the Atlantic Ocean, but continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula setting up a more southerly flow. At the same time the next cold front will be moving into the southeast states with moisture increasing across the region. The potential for late night and early morning fog will return for Friday and Saturday, and will need to monitor trends for possible sea fog off mainly the Nature Coast north of Tampa Bay. Showers and a few thunderstorms will move into the area during Friday and continue through Saturday. Temperatures will moderate quickly during this time with readings about 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Friday.

During Saturday night the weakening cold front will move through the region shifting winds to north to northeast with slightly drier air moving in for early next week. There will not be much of a cool down behind this boundary, and there could still be enough moisture for a few isolated afternoon and early evening showers each day early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with northerly winds 5 to 10 knots shifting to west to northwest this afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Winds will then diminish and become light and variable after sunset, then increase to around 10 knots out of the south by late Wednesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

High pressure over the waters will move east away from the region with a cold front moving into the southeast states late in the week. This will cause winds to shift to a more southerly direction for the second half of the week and increase speeds to 10 to 15 knots. The front will move across the waters Saturday and Saturday night with the southerly flow continuing ahead of it along with some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it Friday and Saturday. By Sunday the front will be south of the waters with winds shifting to north to northeast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

High pressure will move east across the area tonight and then well out into the Atlantic Ocean during the second half of the week. This will shift winds to a more southerly direction for the rest of the week bringing a quick moderating trend. However, relative humidity values will still dip to critical levels over inland areas Wednesday afternoon, and over the interior Thursday afternoon. Late in the week, a cold front will approach from the north bringing a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Friday through Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 43 70 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 40 74 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 38 74 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 40 69 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 30 72 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 50 70 59 78 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.