textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Tricky pattern set up today as a weak frontal boundary lingers over central Florida. On the one hand, deep moisture has accompanied the front, as seen on this morning's sounding with a PW value of 2.4in, which would indicate increased shower and storm chances today. On the other hand, there has been a persistent blanket of clouds over a large portion of the region all morning. This could act to limit rain coverage today as day time heating will be reduced. However, if the clouds continue to clear this afternoon, the ample moisture and boundary influence could aid the development of late afternoon, early evening showers. Sea breeze convergence could also help shower development later this afternoon as well. Overall, a few different factors will play a role in shower and storm coverage today, but best chances will be later this afternoon and early evening. The easterly breeze will help push showers and storms back towards the west coast later tonight. Slow moving showers could lead to localized urban flooding.

Tomorrow, surface high pressure moves a little north and east of the Florida, allowing for more east to southeast flow over the area. This will bring us back to our typical summertime pattern with diurnal heating and sea breeze convergence ushering showers and storms inland and then towards the west coast late in the afternoon/evening. This pattern remains through the weekend. Early next week the models are hinting at drier air moving over the area, and possibly a round of Saharan dust.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Shower and storms will continue to develop through the afternoon, especially along the boundary over central Florida. Coverage will increase inland later this afternoon before pushing back towards the west coast later. Showers and storms will bring periods of below VFR ceilings. Gusty winds and frequent lightning could accompany any storms.

MARINE

Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

High pressure setting up to the northeast of Florida will keep an easterly-southeasterly flow over the area through the weekend with winds 10kts or less expected. Sea breeze development each will shift winds onshore each afternoon. Main hazard through the week and into the weekend will be thunderstorms that develop or move over the waters. Frequent lightning, elevated winds and seas will be possible during any storm.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the period as plenty of moisture lingers over the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 90 77 91 / 50 70 40 60 FMY 77 92 77 92 / 40 70 50 80 GIF 75 93 75 94 / 40 70 50 70 SRQ 76 92 76 92 / 40 70 50 60 BKV 73 92 73 92 / 40 70 50 70 SPG 77 90 78 90 / 40 60 40 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.