textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally moving from west to east through the next several days.

- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall mainly in urban areas with the stronger thunderstorm activity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 High pressure continues aloft over the southeast this afternoon while the surface ridge axis extends across the northern part of the Florida peninsula. This setup has kept a light south/southwest boundary layer flow across the forecast area with showers and a few storms over the Gulf this morning gradually moving over land. PWs remain on the high side (2.40 inches for the 12Z KTBW sounding), so expect heavy rainfall to continue as the main threat as storms move generally away from the west coast and increase in coverage through the rest of the day.

A similar pattern will continue through the weekend into Monday, though moisture will be a little lower, but still enough for scattered storms. Flow then shifts back to easterly mid to late week, with scattered storms expected closer to the coast in the afternoon and evening.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm activity. Best chances through the rest of the afternoon are for KLAL, but a stray storm is possible elsewhere as winds remain onshore. Similar to today, showers are expected to be over the Gulf overnight, moving near coastal sites during the morning hours.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 High pressure over the waters will keep a relatively light west/southwest flow in place through the weekend with no headlines expected. The main hazard will continue to be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the late night and morning hours, which will produce locally gusty winds and higher seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Scattered showers and storms will move onshore from the Gulf each morning and generally shift inland in the afternoon through this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 91 78 91 / 10 30 10 40 FMY 78 93 77 92 / 20 60 20 60 GIF 75 94 75 94 / 30 60 20 60 SRQ 77 91 78 91 / 10 30 10 30 BKV 73 92 74 92 / 10 30 20 40 SPG 79 91 79 91 / 10 30 10 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.