textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours through Wednesday, then at almost anytime Thursday through next Tuesday.

- An increasingly wet pattern is expected late in the week through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Ridging will remain off the southeast U.S. coast through midweek with the breezy southeast flow, sea breeze regime 7, persisting across the region. Some drier air will move into the area from the southeast this morning, but then moisture will increase by evening allowing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea breeze boundary and move back toward the coast. A similar scenario plays out on Wednesday, but with a little more moisture we'll see more numerous late afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm coverage across most inland areas.

For Thursday through Saturday, the ridging will weaken and shift south and east as an upper level trough begins to setup over the eastern states. This shifts the flow to a more southwesterly direction over the area, sea breeze regime 4 Thursday then 5 Friday and Saturday, which will bring the deep moisture that has been over the central gulf eastward over the Florida peninsula leading to more clouds and higher rain chances. The rain chances will be at almost anytime on these days, but the highest PoPs will be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula during each afternoon and evening.

During the second half of the weekend into early next week the global models diverge some and have differing scenarios for our area. However, it does still look like the upper level troughing will linger somewhere over the eastern U.S. with plenty of moisture across the region. Therefore, the chance for showers and thunderstorms at almost anytime should continue, with the highest PoPs over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula each afternoon and evening.

Daytime high temperatures will remain near to a couple of degrees above normal through Wednesday, then with more clouds and higher rain chances temperatures will settle back to near normal, and by the weekend even a couple of degrees below normal. Meanwhile low temperatures will remain near to a few degrees above normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning as daytime heating gets underway, then more MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible later this afternoon and evening in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with southeast winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts this morning. Winds will shift to south to southwest this afternoon at TPA, PIE, and SRQ as the sea breeze moves inland, and could possibly reach the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW. Winds will return to southeast at 4 to 8 knots later this evening. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

South to southeast winds will continue across coastal waters through midweek. Showers and thunderstorms will move out into the gulf late each day and continue into the early morning hours. Winds will become more south to southwest during the second half of the week with deep tropical moisture moving over the waters leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms at almost anytime.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Ample moisture will keep relative humidity values well above critical levels and lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Some high dispersions will be possible with gusty winds, otherwise fire weather concerns remain low through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 77 89 77 / 50 60 30 40 FMY 94 76 92 76 / 40 30 70 60 GIF 93 76 92 75 / 40 50 70 60 SRQ 93 75 91 75 / 40 50 30 40 BKV 94 73 92 73 / 60 60 40 50 SPG 93 77 91 78 / 40 50 30 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.