textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog and some low clouds are possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

- A chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday.

- Cooler and drier conditions midweek.

UPDATE

Latest upper level analysis and satellite imagery showing upper longwave trough from Hudson Bay down into Texas with vort max and jet stream ahead of the trough axis from the W Gulf through the Deep South and into the S Appalachians. The complex but weak surface frontal system continues to develop in the Gulf region this evening with increasing cloud shield streaming over the FL Peninsula tonight. As the system matures a cold front will move towards the area Tuesday morning into afternoon hours with most of the upper energy lifting NE out of the area leaving a broken line of showers and a few thunderstorms over the Nature Coast with weakening and limited coverage of showers into S Central and SW FL locations.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) VFR conditions this evening as the complex frontal system in the region is producing increasing BKN-OVC mid-high clouds tonight as winds shift from NE to SE with patchy fog and low clouds in prone areas. Tues aft 12Z expect lowering MVFR cigs and gusty S-SW winds along with VCSH/IFR cigs around the Tampa Bay area as the weak frontal boundary moves over the area through around 18-19Z. Lingering low clouds but mainly dry conditions further S into SW FL.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Main weather story continues to be the frontal boundary moving south over Florida tomorrow/tomorrow night. A line of showers and possible storms will move through ahead of the front tomorrow, with highest chances for showers being mainly north of I4. Some storms that are able to develop could have strong, gusty winds. Currently a few isolated showers have developed over the nature coast and inland, where the frontal boundary is stalled. If surface winds subside overnight, some early morning patchy fog will also be possible over the area.

Temperatures will drop a few degrees behind the front as high pressure builds in bringing more northerly winds. Drier air will also move in, making conditions more comfortable. Cooler temperatures quickly begin to moderate back towards the low to mid 80s as the weekend approaches. However, another frontal boundary is expected to move through this weekend. Models are currently in disagreement about timing and duration for this frontal line. So, we will continue to monitor the situation as it gets closer.

MARINE

Issued at 110 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as a frontal line pushes south over Florida. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front. Gusty S/SW winds will shift more N/NW into Wednesday. Though winds will increase Tuesday, they should remain just below cautionary levels. Winds remain around 10-15kts through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Fire weather concerns remain limited as a frontal boundary moves over Florida brining extra moisture. Dew points decrease behind the front but should remain above criteria levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 80 62 73 / 20 50 0 0 FMY 69 81 65 79 / 10 20 0 0 GIF 66 83 60 75 / 10 40 0 0 SRQ 68 80 62 75 / 10 40 0 0 BKV 62 81 53 72 / 30 50 0 0 SPG 70 78 64 72 / 20 50 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.