textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Isolated to numerous showers and storms will continue to develop today while drier air to the north will keep thunderstorm chances minimal.

- Gusty east to northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The dry air that has been mentioned in previous forecast discussions is slowly filtering into Florida today. This morning's sounding for the Tampa Bay area still had a PWAT value of just over 2" whereas the sounding for NE Florida had a PWAT value of slightly over 1". The drier air will continue to sink further south, dropping dew points and rain chances in its wake. The most noticeable effects will be north of I4, as enough moisture will linger south of that area to produce a few isolated showers this afternoon and tomorrow. Gusty, north easterly winds are also expected to continue through the end of the week.

As the weekend approaches the a more typical pattern will set up as moisture moves back in from the east. Showers and storms will develop over on the east side of Florida early in the day then shift towards the west coast in the afternoon and evening hours. Through the pattern changes, temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above normal, in the low 90s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period with gusty, northeasterly winds expected. Rain chances increase this afternoon for SWFL sites. Periods of MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities could occur with any passing shower or storm.Confidence was too low to mention convection for northern TAF sites. Quiet conditions return overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Hazardous marine conditions expected as a tight pressure gradient over the area keeps winds elevated to advisory levels. Elevated winds and seas area expected to stick around through the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Main concern through the end of the week will be the gusty north easterly winds and slightly drier conditions. However, RH values should remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 75 89 74 90 / 0 10 0 30 FMY 76 89 74 91 / 20 40 10 70 GIF 74 89 73 91 / 0 10 10 40 SRQ 75 91 74 92 / 0 10 0 50 BKV 72 89 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 76 90 76 91 / 0 10 0 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.