textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will slowly increase through the week, with high temperatures running about 5-10 degrees above normal by the end of the week.

- Some late night and early morning fog will be possible each day into the weekend, along with some sea fog over the coastal waters.

- Hazardous marine conditions and much cooler temperatures return early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Quiet weather across the area this evening with just some stratocumulus clouds along the west coast counties where the sea breeze has pushed inland, along with a few high clouds. For the remainder of the night expect to see some more clouds here and there, and patchy fog cannot be ruled out over inland areas. Wednesday looks like another nice day with increasing south to southwest flow bringing warm and moist air northward. Potential for sea fog returns during Wednesday and Wednesday night as dew points climb back into the low to mid 60s, but will leave the forecast as is for now.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Some areas of MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible late tonight into Wednesday morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Light and variable winds this evening will become southeast at around 5 knots overnight, shifting to south at around 10 knots by late Wednesday morning, and then southwest at around 10 knots during Wednesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

After a slightly cooler morning, temperatures have warmed up into the upper 70s low 80s. As the week continues, afternoon temperatures will continue to rise to above average levels. There's a chance some inland areas could even see 90 later in the week when the winds shift more southerly dragging more moist, tropical air into the area. High pressure remains in control over the area, keeping warm, mostly rain-free conditions as we head into the weekend. Main concern through the week will be the development of fog overnight/early morning.

Over the weekend, the pattern will shift again as a cold front move through Sunday brining a slight chance or showers. The big change will come behind the front when a much colder air mass pushes into the area from the north. Low temperatures will drop back into the 30s and 40s through mid week. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. In other words, will go from well above average temperatures this week, to below average next week.

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

High pressure over the area will keep quite conditions through the remainder of the week. A cold front will move through Sunday bringing a chance of showers. Winds are expected to increase to advisory levels late Sunday into Monday leading to hazardous boating conditions to start the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Conditions remain dry and warm through the week. RH values will remain above critical and winds will remain below 15 mph. A cold front moves over the area Sunday bringing a chance of showers. Conditions dry out behind the front once more.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 61 82 62 82 / 10 0 0 0 GIF 60 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 60 78 61 78 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 54 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 20 SPG 65 77 66 77 / 0 0 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.