textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures today, then turning colder Friday through the weekend. - A few showers expected through Thursday night, but overall rainfall amounts will be low.

- Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters starting late Sunday and continuing into most of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected. Some showers will be possible across the Tampa Bay region tonight with a cold front, but overall impacts are expected to be limited.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Broad upper level troughing encompasses the eastern half of the U.S. through the end of the week and into the weekend. On the surface, a weak area of low pressure is located off the mid-Atlantic coast with a cold front extending southwestward over southern Florida. Scattered showers and a stray storm will be possible today on the southern extent of this cold front over southwest Florida. Weak high pressure is located in the eastern Gulf for today keeping most of west central Florida rain-free. Farther to the north and west, another area of low pressure is located near Ohio with the associated cold front extending southwestward to Louisiana. This cold front will traverse through Florida late Thursday into Friday morning producing isolated showers to the area. By Friday afternoon, the cold front will be south and east of Florida allowing for high pressure to build into the area from the northwest.

Over the weekend, strong high pressure builds in from the northwest with clearing rain-free conditions expected as well as cooling temperatures through the weekend. Temperatures will begin to cool on Thursday night with lows dipping into the upper 40s north and low to mid 60s for central and southwest. Friday and Saturday nights will be the coldest we have seen in months with widespread 40s and 50s on Friday night and even colder on Saturday night with widespread 40s across most of west central and southwest Florida. Some upper 30s may even be possible over the northern parts of the Nature Coast. Daytime highs Friday through Sunday will only reach the mid 60s to mid 70s.

By Monday morning, broad and strong high pressure remains over the Great Lakes region. Over the Gulf, models are trying to spin up another area of low pressure over the central Gulf. There is some location differences in the GFS and ECMWF, but both are showing this feature for the first half of next week. This will likely bring in some increasing moisture with a slight chance of showers for next week. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure near the Great Lakes and this developing area of low pressure will produce some breezy northeast winds starting late Sunday and continuing into most of next week. Hazardous marine conditions can be expected over the eastern Gulf waters for most of next week.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Northwest winds around 10-15 knots will persist through today. A cold front will move across the waters late Thursday night into early Friday followed by increasing north to northwest winds up to cautionary levels Friday and Friday night. Winds will shift to northeast and diminish to around 15 knots late Saturday into early Sunday. A tight pressure gradient sets up over the area producing increasing northeast winds and building seas to Advisory level late Sunday and continuing through most of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

No fire weather hazards are expected for today as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. Drier air will overspread the region Friday and continue through the weekend. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the low to mid 40s on Friday, then mid 30s across much of west central and southwest Florida away from the coast on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 61 72 51 / 10 20 0 0 FMY 81 69 76 55 / 30 20 10 0 GIF 80 59 73 47 / 10 10 0 0 SRQ 80 65 74 54 / 10 20 0 0 BKV 80 56 71 46 / 0 10 0 0 SPG 78 64 72 55 / 10 20 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.