textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 732 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Showers and isolated storms through this evening south.

- Drier air will advect into the region tonight and Thursday. - Gradual return to more typical summertime pattern over the weekend.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 732 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 A cold front continues to push south across southwest Florida with a broken band of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The shower activity will end by midnight, with skies remaining cloudy across much of west central and southwest Florida, with the exception of the northern nature coast which has become partly cloudy.

Little overall change to the forecast reasoning. The frontal boundary will stall across south Florida tonight and Thursday with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm across southwest Florida. Drier air will advect across the remainder of the forecast area, however skies will remain mostly cloudy central and south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 A cold front across the central Florida peninsula will continue to push south this evening with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms south of the front. High pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front tonight and Thursday as the frontal boundary stalls across south Florida. Drier slightly cooler air will advect across the region in the wake of the front. A few showers or thunderstorms will remain possible over southwest Florida both Thursday and Friday where slightly deeper moisture will persist.

Low level moisture will begin to recover over the weekend, and temperatures will warm back to near or slightly above climatic normals. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible each day, however conditions will be relatively dry for early June.

More typical summertime easterly flow pattern will return early next week with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with highest pops likely over the coastal counties late in the day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 VFR CIGs will persist at all terminals overnight. A few showers/thunderstorms will be possible vcnty FMY/RSW, mainly through the evening hours, with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 Advisory level winds will continue tonight in the wake of a cold front. Winds may fluctuate a bit between cautionary and advisory levels through Thursday. Winds and seas will gradually subside on Friday with improving conditions over the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 Drier air advecting across the area will cause minimum relative humidity levels to approach critical levels across portions of the nature coast Thursday afternoon. Low level moisture will begin to recover on Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 87 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 71 87 71 90 / 30 30 10 20 GIF 68 86 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 70 89 70 91 / 10 10 0 10 BKV 62 88 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 72 89 73 91 / 10 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.