textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend.
- Drier air aloft today will lead to lower rain chances.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 724 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail outside of convection. Overall chances are on the lower side again today, but there will still be widely scattered storms around the region that generally shift inland through the afternoon and evening. A similar setup is forecast for Sunday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Today will be very similar to yesterday, though with slightly less rain expected. With west to southwest flow, a few showers and storms over the Gulf in the morning could drift close to shore. Best chance for showers or storms will likely be later in the afternoon with sea breeze convergence inland and further east. The same pattern persists into Sunday, with the only caveat being a little extra moisture thanks to a boundary that will drift over north Florida. The boundary will enhance shower and storm activity over the NE Gulf with some of the showers and storms moving onshore over the nature coast. More typical afternoon showers along the interior will also be possible SUnday afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Conditions will continue to be hot, though below heat advisory levels.
A slight change in the pattern will arrive early next week with the flow transitioning more southeast. Dry air aloft will continue to keep rain chances on the low side Monday and Tuesday. Moisture begins to rebound Wednesday increasing rain chances through the end of the week.
MARINE
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Mostly quiet marine conditions expected through the weekend. A few isolated showers possible over the coastal waters early this morning. Winds continue to be out of the west, southwest mainly under 10 kts.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Fire weather concerns remain minimal as humidity values remain above critical.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 79 89 79 / 10 20 50 10 FMY 93 78 94 78 / 20 0 20 10 GIF 95 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 10 SRQ 92 78 90 77 / 10 10 30 10 BKV 92 73 90 73 / 20 20 50 10 SPG 90 80 89 80 / 10 20 50 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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