textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return this afternoon through Saturday.

- A medium chance for fog this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Temperatures continue to moderate across the Florida Peninsula with moisture increasing ahead of the approaching front. Last night's 00z TBW sounding indicates that PW values have climbed up to 0.78 inches. These values are near normal for late February and will continue to rise through Saturday. With high low-level moisture, fog is in the forecast for this morning. So far, not much in the way of fog has materialized. However, still think there is a good chance of fog formation later this morning. Additionally, there is plenty of smoke in the area from recent wildfires that should help fog form in the moist environment.

The latest upper level pattern features a split jet pattern with the polar jet across the Great Lakes stretching to the west along the U.S./Canadian border. The subtropical jet is located near the northern Gulf Coast stretching back to the west into the inter-mountain west. A positively tilted shortwave associated with the sub-tropical jet is located across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys. At the surface, a cold front stretches from near Houston to the northeast to near Charlotte. The upper level trough and surface front will continue to swing to the southeast moving into the Florida Panhandle by the end of the day. PW values will continue to climb in advance of the front with values around 1.5 inches by the end of the day. These values are around the 95th percentile of late February climatology. Most of the CAMs indicate that precipitation should hold off until mid to late afternoon. There could be a few thunderstorms as well. However, the instability is limited in the saturated environment with lapse rates generally being near moist adiabatic. The front will slow its southeastward progress late tonight and into Saturday as the upper level flow becomes more parallel to the boundary. Due to this, showers and isolated storms will continue overnight and into Saturday. The surface boundary will bisect the area and offer a focus for precipitation. Based on the latest CAMs, there will more than likely be a large spread in precipitation amounts across the area. Some locations may see 2 plus inches of rain with others maybe only seeing around a quarter of an inch. At this time, it is to hard to tell where those higher amounts may be. Regardless, any rain will be beneficial with the ongoing drought.

Another more progressive shortwave trough will swing through the area late Saturday and into Sunday pushing the surface boundary well to the south of the area. The cold air advection behind the boundary is non-existant and there will not be much if any of a cool down behind the departing boundary. Highs next week will generally be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions currently across the terminals. The main aviation impact will be the fog potential this morning. Looking at latest trends, went a bit more optimistic but still have a TEMPO for MVFR to IFR conditions generally in the 10-13z timeframe. Any ongoing fog should lift around 13-14z. Showers will move in later in the TAF period after 20z. There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two but confidence is not high enough at this time to include VCTS late in the TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 108 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

A cold front will approach the area later today. Ahead of the front, some patchy sea fog is possible and rain chances will increase north to south starting this afternoon and continuing into Saturday before coming to an end Saturday night. No headlines currently expected through the next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 108 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

A cold front will approach the area late today, with increasing rain chances through Saturday. Rain-free conditions will return on Sunday and last through the next week. Overall, no humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 65 76 61 / 70 80 70 10 FMY 84 65 81 63 / 30 50 50 20 GIF 83 64 78 59 / 70 80 90 20 SRQ 78 63 75 61 / 60 70 60 10 BKV 81 57 77 52 / 70 80 70 10 SPG 78 65 76 63 / 70 80 70 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.