textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon and evening. Rain coverage will become more widespread Monday through the rest of the week, with higher rainfall totals

- Marine winds over the northeastern Gulf will increase late Tuesday through the rest of the week, creating hazardous boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

We are looking at another very similiar set up today that we have seen Friday and Saturday. We have plenty of moisture again with PW around 2.2 however we are also seeing a lot of cloud cover. This extra cloud cover is helping to suppress the seabreeze activity resulting in more in the range of isolated showers and storms. The best chance to see the rain will be inland and SW Florida.

As we head into Monday we will start seeing a front push into Florida. This front will stall in North Florida during the day. We will widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms as a result. For West Central and SW Florida we can expected scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will settle down in Central Florida by Tuesday and remain there for the rest of the week. This amazingly will increase our PWs even more. If models are right we could be approaching 2.5 PW by Tuesday. This will lead to cloudy skies and widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms. Current forecast is keeping rainfall totals between 1-3 inches for most of us during the week. However we could see totals closer to 3 to 6 inches across the Nature Coast.

The front will finally lift north by Saturday bring back a normal summer time pattern with afternoon and evening scattered showers and storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

We will see less coverage of shower and storms today. The best chances to see storms will be in SW Florida and our inland areas. Outside of thunderstorms expect VFR conditions with winds generally at or below 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Winds will continue to be out of the south and southeast through for today around 5 to 10 knots. Shower chances will remain for early next week with winds continuing out of the south and southeast around 5 to 15 knots through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Deeper layer moisture in across the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the middle part of the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 76 86 76 / 30 40 60 60 FMY 92 76 90 75 / 50 40 40 30 GIF 92 75 90 74 / 50 50 60 50 SRQ 90 75 88 75 / 30 30 50 50 BKV 92 73 88 72 / 40 40 70 70 SPG 89 77 87 76 / 30 30 60 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.