textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier conditions expected through the week.

- Showers are expected Wednesday into Thursday morning

UPDATE

Issued at 709 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The day is off to a cool and cloudy start. The 12Z sounding shows a layer of moisture below 800mb (approx. 6.5kft) with a strong dry layer above from 800mb to 700mb before moisture returns. The expectation is that this trapped moisture will largely remain in place today, suggesting mostly cloudy skies will continue. This is in response to the weak surface trough over the state.

As such, the current forecast looks on track, with no changes needed at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 709 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

MVFR to IFR CIGs are the main aviation concern until the next front moves through on Thursday. The window where CIGs are favored to be lowest will generally run from 06Z to approximately 14Z. However, these low CIGs still have the potential to occur at anytime. When the front moves through on Thursday, the window for low CIGs will extend until after the front passes. Additionally, some convection as well as gusty winds will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The front that pushed through on Sunday is still lingering just south of Florida. This front will lift slightly north today allowing for some extra cloud cover over the area. A shower or two will also be possible in SW Florida. By Wednesday we will see a much stronger cold front heading our way. This front will push through Wednesday Night bringing scattered showers as it passes by. Colder air will start to filter in behind the front with highs north of I-4 staying below 60 degrees. Our coldest morning so far this season will be on Friday. For our inland areas we could see freezing temperatures as far south as Hardee and Desoto Counties with the Nature Coast getting into the mid to upper 20's. Highs on Friday will stay in the 50's for almost all of us except SW Florida which could touch 60 degrees for an hour or two in the afternoon.

We will slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday before another cold front slides through on Sunday morning. We won't be seeing any rain with this front but it will bring temperatures back down into the 30's for most of us Monday morning. Highs on Monday will once again be stuck in the 50's north of I-4 with the low 60's everywhere else.

MARINE

Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Winds will remain out of the north for Tuesday and Wednesday with speeds around 10 knots. We will see a strong cold front slide through Wednesday night that will bring some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Gulf. Behind it winds will increase quickly peaking at 20 to 25 knots by Thursday afternoon. Winds will not remain that high for long as high pressure starts to move overhead. This will start to decrease the winds late Thursday night and by Friday afternoon should only be around 5 knots. Winds will shift more easterly as the high pressure moves away on Saturday between 5 to 10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

We will see dry and cooler conditions for our Tuesday and the early part of Wednesday. A strong cold front will push through the area Wednesday night bringing scattered showers to the area. Behind the front we will see breezy conditions on Thursday with gust to 20 to 25 mph. Drier air will filter in Thursday night creating critical RHs by Friday afternoon but winds will have calmed down by then. This means a Red Flag Warning should not be needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 58 69 57 / 10 10 20 80 FMY 78 63 75 60 / 10 20 10 60 GIF 73 58 70 54 / 10 30 20 60 SRQ 72 58 70 57 / 10 20 10 80 BKV 70 51 68 47 / 10 10 20 70 SPG 70 60 70 60 / 10 20 20 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.