textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will be the last day of southwest to west flow with scattered morning showers and thunderstorms near the coast moving inland by afternoon.

- Pattern changes during midweek with east to southeast flow setting up and the more typical mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The upper level troughing over the eastern U.S. will gradually weaken over the next few days with ridging trying to build west from the Atlantic Ocean. This will allow the surface ridge that has been anchored south of the region to drift north across the area during midweek and then setup to our north late in the week through the weekend.

Today will be the last day of the southwest to west flow. More scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move east across the area with locally heavy rainfall possible, especially around the Tampa Bay area this morning where the band of deepest moisture resides.

Tonight into Wednesday will be the transition period as the surface ridge sets up across the region. Deep moisture will remain across the area and with the light flow we'll likely see some scattered late night and morning convection over the gulf waters affecting coastal areas, then more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over land during the afternoon drifting west back toward the west coast.

For Thursday through early next week, an east to southeast flow will become established. Plenty of moisture will be across the area and this combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead to scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection each day.

Daytime highs will remain near to a few degrees below normal today. Then as the east to southeast flow returns we'll see daytime highs climb back to near to a few degrees above normal with overnight lows near normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across the region again today producing some MVFR/local IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Light southerly winds early this morning will become southwesterly at 7 to 10 knots by late morning, then becoming light southeast later this evening. Gusty erratic winds will be possible in the convection.

MARINE

Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

High pressure south of the region will continue the southwest to west flow over the Gulf waters today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some containing gusty winds and choppy seas. The high pressure will build over the region by midweek and then setup north of the waters late in the week through the weekend with an east to southeast flow across the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The southwest to west flow with abundant moisture will continue today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. During midweek the flow will shift to a more east to southeast direction and this will bring a more typical summertime weather pattern with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 77 89 77 / 70 20 60 30 FMY 90 76 92 76 / 50 30 70 30 GIF 88 74 90 75 / 60 20 50 20 SRQ 88 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 30 BKV 88 72 91 72 / 60 20 50 20 SPG 87 78 88 78 / 60 30 50 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.