textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 648 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns with storms that develop.
- Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters.
UPDATE
Issued at 648 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Most of the convection remains over interior areas and SWFL portions of the state. Scattered showers and storms should dissipate over the next few hours as outflow boundaries may attempt to support additional development as the push westward. After that, fairly calm conditions are anticipated. On Tuesday, flow will be out of the east to southeast and there will be ample moisture to work with. The pattern should support convection to develop east and over inland areas earlier in the day, and advect westward during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some guidance showed showers near coastal areas during the morning, but most should remain over the water. Temperatures in the afternoon will be in the 90s, even in coastal areas.
No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Some convection remains over interior locations and portions of SWFL. This activity should dissipate over the next few hours with VFR conditions anticipated after around 02Z. Light east to southeasterly winds prevail on Tuesday supporting showers and storms later in the afternoon and evening. Convection will move generally westward. There is a non-zero chance of some showers near the coast early in the morning, however, confidence is not high enough at this time. MVFR/IFR conditions possible at TAF sites near thunderstorms.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 91 77 90 / 30 60 30 20 FMY 77 92 76 91 / 50 50 30 60 GIF 76 92 76 90 / 40 60 20 20 SRQ 76 93 76 92 / 30 60 30 40 BKV 74 93 74 90 / 30 60 20 10 SPG 78 92 78 91 / 20 60 30 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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