textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move west northwest and weaken as they move into the eastern gulf early this evening. Convection will come to an end over the next few hours with skies becoming partly cloudy overnight. Monday will start out partly to mostly sunny, then during the afternoon and evening we'll see showers and thunderstorms develop once again. The overall flow will remain out of the east to southeast, but it does look a little lighter than today so we should see the sea breeze move further inland helping to pop scattered to numerous convection during the afternoon. This convection will then drift west back toward the west coast later in the day and evening. Forecast looks on track at this time with no adjustments needed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Convection has come to end across the TAF sites with just some patches of light rain still remaining. For the rest of tonight into Monday morning VFR conditions should prevail. Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible during mid to late morning Monday as daytime heating gets underway, then MVFR/occasional IFR conditions will be possible in showers and thunderstorms during Monday afternoon and evening. Light east to southeast winds overnight into Monday morning will become onshore as the bay/sea breeze develop and move inland during midday and early afternoon. However, gusty erratic winds will be possible as convection develops during the afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The active summertime pattern will continue through the week as high pressure remains to our north with an east to southeast flow across the region. Deep moisture, precipitable water >= 2 inches, will persist and become enhanced later in the week as the remnants of Dolly move across the peninsula. This will lead to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day moving out into the gulf at night. Highest rain chances should be along the coastal counties each day where the sea breeze collision occurs, but it does look like everyone has a good chance at seeing decent rainfall this week. May need a few Flood Advisories each afternoon/evening if storms line up over an area leading to flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas. Otherwise, no widespread severe weather is expected, but some of the storms could become rather strong and produce gusty winds up to 50 mph and frequent lightning.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

High pressure will remain north of the waters through the week with an easterly flow continuing. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous mainly evening and overnight showers and thunderstorms which could produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

No fire weather hazards are expected. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels through the period. Numerous to widespread mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 91 77 90 / 20 70 50 80 FMY 76 93 76 92 / 20 70 40 80 GIF 75 93 75 92 / 10 70 40 80 SRQ 75 92 76 92 / 20 70 50 80 BKV 72 92 73 91 / 20 70 40 80 SPG 77 90 77 89 / 30 70 50 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.