textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance of early morning fog over the next couple of days impacting both land areas and coastal waters.

- Near record temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Cooler weather will return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Well above normal to near record warmth continues across west central and southwest Florida as mid level ridging remains in place. This stable weather pattern will continue to also be favorable for fog development during the overnight hours with tonight being another possibility, though perhaps not quite as widespread as the foggy conditions observed for much of this past week as there may be just enough wind to prevent widespread decoupling area-wide. This could be among one of the reasons that hi-res guidance for this evening doesn't appear to be quite as aggressivearea-wide as earlier in the week, but there are still plenty of signals for a mixture of patchy to areas of fog, particularly in interior areas and possibly sea fog in northern waters.

The mid level ridge will start to shift east on Saturday as an upper level trough across the central US pushes eastward but the influence of the ridge will still be felt across the region as highs once again soar to near record category in the low/mid 80s and upper 70s for coastal areas. This warmth will then come to an abrupt end later in the weekend as the aforementioned upper trough swings across the Eastern Seaboard and drives a strong cold front through the region. This front is forecast to sweep through northern Florida Saturday night and then continue through the central peninsula Sunday morning before eventually departing south FL by Sunday night. There will also be a small increase in PoPs along and ahead of the frontal boundary as this feature slides through the area, though this will likely result in just a very narrow broken band of scattered shower activity with QPF amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch.

Cooler and drier air filters into the region next week in the wake of the frontal passage on Sunday with highs in the 60s mostly from I-4 northward. Dry conditions generally look to prevail through the for the first couple of days of next week before rain chances increase by mid to late week as an upper trough amplifies across the eastern CONUS and drives a cold front through the area. With this system, moisture return and upper support may be a bit more favorable for higher precipitation accumulation compared to Sunday's frontal passage so this will be something to monitor in the long term for some potential of beneficial rainfall. This will also bring another cool down to the area by the end of the week with highs potentially not reaching the 60s across portions of the Nature Coast by next Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day but there may be some patchy areas of fog that develop overnight, which may result in a period of IFR restrictions or worse at some terminals. At this time, it appears that fog is most favored to develop from 08Z-13Z/Saturday before burning off and VFR conditions are then expected area-wide for the remainder of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 233 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

High pressure in the western Atlantic will maintain a mostly southerly flow across the Gulf waters at the start of the weekend with seas around 1-2 ft though Saturday. A strong cold front is then forecast to move southward through the region late Sunday into Sunday night with a period of strong northerly winds developing in the wake of the frontal passage. This will likely result in small craft advisory conditions developing on Sunday into Monday morning with seas also peaking around 6-8 ft. Seas and winds will subside into the middle of the week as high pressure builds in from the north with a northeasterly flow developing across the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 233 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Dry conditions will continue into the start of the weekend as high pressure in the Atlantic remains in control but the southerly wind flow in place will keep humidity levels above critical levels. A strong cold front is then forecast to sweep through the area on Sunday with a few light scattered showers possible as this feature pushes through, though rainfall amounts will be too light to provide any meaningful drought relief. Winds will shift to the north and northeast in the wake of the frontal passage with drier air also lowering humidity values later this weekend and into early next week so the fire danger threat could increase somewhat by this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 64 81 64 76 / 0 0 10 20 FMY 63 84 63 82 / 0 0 10 0 GIF 62 84 62 79 / 0 0 10 20 SRQ 62 81 63 78 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 57 84 55 75 / 0 0 10 20 SPG 67 79 67 75 / 0 0 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.