textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- After a cold start this morning, a warm up expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

- Next cold front brings rain late Wednesday into Thursday.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected on Thursday.

- Next shot of freezing temperatures on Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

High pressure has set up over the Florida peninsula allowing for another cold night with widespread freezing temperatures once again. These freezing temperatures along with light winds will be prime for widespread frost to develop during the early morning hours. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory remain in effect for most of west central and southwest Florida through 9 am.

The high pressure drifts east of Florida by this afternoon allowing for the winds to shift to the east-southeast. A slight warm up is expected this afternoon with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s today. The high pressure slips farther east by Wednesday morning, which will equate to above freezing temperatures with mid 30s to mid 40s expected on Wednesday morning. Pleasant weather with near seasonal temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s is expected on Wednesday afternoon. Mild temperatures are expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning with overnight lows only dipping into the 40s and 50s.

By late Wednesday evening, the next cold front is moving through the southeast U.S. and into the central Gulf. This cold front will make its way through Florida late Wednesday into Thursday with scattered showers expected. The cold front pushes south and east of Florida by Thursday evening with clearing conditions expected as high pressure builds in from the west. As this high pressure ridges eastward, another cold air mass will move into Florida on Friday morning with freezing temperatures likely once again north of Tampa Bay along the Nature Coast. This next shot of cold air will not be as potent and long lasting as the one over the past weekend and early this week. After starting out on the cold side Friday morning, a pleasant day is expected on Friday afternoon with sunny skies and daytime highs reaching the low to mid 60s. This warming trend will continue through the weekend and into early next week with overnight lows Saturday through Wednesday mornings dipping only into the 40s each night. Daytime highs Saturday through early next week will top out in the 70s each day.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 711 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

VRF conditions through the period with light winds due to high pressure overhead.

MARINE

Issued at 137 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

High pressure over the area will produce pleasant marine conditions with light winds less than 10 knots and seas 2 feet or less through Wednesday afternoon. A cold front moves through the eastern gulf waters late Wednesday into Thursday producing scattered showers and increasing winds and seas. Hazardous marine conditions expected starting Thursday morning with a Small Craft Advisory likely needed during the day on Thursday for winds around 20-25 knots and seas 5-7 feet. Conditions slowly improve on Friday to around 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet. Pleasant marine conditions continue into the weekend with winds around 10 knots and seas 2 feet or less expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

High pressure over the area will produce rain-free and dry conditions for the next couple of days. RH values will dip below critical levels today and Wednesday, but light winds below 15 mph will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. The next cold front will move through late Wednesday into Thursday producing scattered showers as it moves through the area. More dry air filters into the region behind this front on Friday and into the weekend with some critical RH values expected. But once again, the winds are expected to remain below 15 mph with no Red Flag Warnings needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 65 46 70 51 / 0 0 0 60 FMY 69 47 74 54 / 0 0 0 40 GIF 65 43 74 49 / 0 0 0 50 SRQ 65 43 69 52 / 0 0 0 60 BKV 65 33 72 43 / 0 0 0 60 SPG 64 49 69 54 / 0 0 0 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk.

Gulf waters...None.