textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Next chance of showers and storms on Wednesday Night into Thursday with cold front passage.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Thursday morning through Friday morning.

- A significant cooldown is expected late this week with low temps dipping into the 20s and 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

The front that passed through this weekend is still sitting just south of Florida. This front is helping to keep the mostly cloudy skies over the area this morning. We will have another nice day with highs around 70 degrees in the afternoon but big changes will be on the way Wednesday night. A strong cold front will push through the area. As it does so we will see scattered showers across the area mainly after midnight. Once the front passes cold air will quickly start to filter into the area. This means even though we will be waking up with average morning lows in the 50's we will only be seeing around a 5 degree warm up in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip quickly overnight as we will see the coldest morning so far this winter. Freezing temperatures will be see as far south as Charlotte County with a Freeze Watch in place for much of the area.

We will see a small warm up on Saturday but it will be short lived as another front pushes through early on Sunday bringing temperatures down once again. This front will not bring freezing temperatures as far south as Friday but we will still see widespread 30's on Monday morning. Freezing temperatures will still be possible along the Nature Coast. We will once again start a slow warming process next Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 726 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

There are some pockets of MVFR CIGs lingering this morning across the interior and SWFL. However, the main window for MVFR to perhaps even IFR conditions will take place beginning tonight as a cold front approaches. Showers are favored from 04Z to 12Z, with the potential for some showers to linger through at least midday tomorrow. Once the initial showers move through overnight, winds will also begin to increase. Gradually improving conditions will then take place late tomorrow and into Friday, with no significant aviation concerns on the horizon until the next front approaches on Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 726 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Deteriorating marine conditions are expected later today and into tonight as the next cold front approaches. Overnight showers will initially have the potential to create locally hazardous winds and seas. However, winds will increase areawide beginning after 1AM and continuing through the morning. As winds increase to 20 to 25 knots, seas will build in response to hazardous and even dangerous heights offshore. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued in response beginning early Thursday morning and continuing through Friday morning when winds and seas subside.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 249 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

A cold front will be pushing through the area Wednesday night bringing scattered showers to the area. This will also bring us gusty winds on Thursday but the driest air will take a little longer to get here. By Friday afternoon we will see critical RHs across the whole area but winds will be much calmer by then. That means a Red Flag Warning will not be needed. RHs will slowly creep up for the weekend before more dry air returns on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 54 62 36 / 20 80 40 0 FMY 74 60 68 36 / 20 60 60 0 GIF 69 53 61 32 / 30 80 40 0 SRQ 71 57 65 36 / 20 90 50 0 BKV 67 48 58 25 / 30 80 20 0 SPG 69 57 63 42 / 20 80 40 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.