textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for heavy rain into the weekend with localized flooding possible.

- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches into the weekend.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with dangerous lightning into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A persisting westerly flow continues to bring deep tropical moisture into the area. Aloft, the presence of a trough along the Eastern Seaboard supports light diffluence in our region, which will provide broad lift. This combination will sustain a pattern similar to what has been observed over the last couple days; early morning convection off the coast will be brought ashore by the aforementioned onshore flow, followed by more widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms moving into interior areas.

This pattern will be in place into the weekend. During this time, local heavy rain will be possible and may cause urban/street flooding, and flooding of low lying/flood prone areas. Slightly stronger winds over the near shore waters will also create breaking waves and a high risk of rip currents.

Around late Saturday/early Sunday, winds will shift south to southwest and strengthen as another sharp U/L trough from the Midwest approaches the East Coast. A frontal boundary associated with this system will track through southeast U.S. and stall around the Florida panhandle. This will provide large scale ascent, which in tandem with lingering deep tropical moisture will lead to the development of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms over the northern/central coastal waters which will again move onshore much of west central Florida both Saturday and Sunday.

Unsettled pattern continues next week as well, with warm and humid summertime conditions along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA continue to weaken over the area with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs around the Tampa Bay sites. Improving conditions aft 20Z-22Z with VFR conditions tonight. Models bring another round of SHRA/TSRA thru the terminals Fri aft 10Z-14Z.

MARINE

A weak front in the Deep South is producing a fluctuating and moderate pressure gradient over the E Gulf with gusty westerly winds and choppy elevated seas continuing small craft should exercise caution into the weekend. Winds and seas will be much higher in and near scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Westerly flow is expected to increase next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Deep moisture and high rain chances to remain over the area through the week and weekend. No fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 87 78 87 / 50 60 60 60 FMY 78 90 78 91 / 20 30 30 40 GIF 76 90 76 89 / 60 70 40 80 SRQ 78 89 77 89 / 40 50 40 50 BKV 74 87 74 87 / 70 70 70 80 SPG 80 87 79 87 / 40 60 60 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.