textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week.

- Increased chances of showers and thunderstorms today, with a few strong or severe storms possible.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Through the rest of the weekend and at least the first half of the week, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure will hold over the western Atlantic to the northeast of Florida, with east to southeast flow persisting through the next week. This pattern will advect in extra moisture and result in higher rain chances to the area, mainly along sea breeze boundaries. The highest rain chances of the week looks to be this afternoon, when the flow pattern is slightly more southeasterly, which climatologically favors numerous to widespread showers and storms developing during the afternoon along the Interstate 75 corridor. With cool mid level temperatures supporting steeper lapse rates, a few strong or severe storms will be possible this afternoon, with damaging wind gusts or perhaps small hail possible.

Through the rest of the week, the flow pattern becomes more easterly, which will moderate precipitable water values slightly and limit rain chances, particularly north of the Tampa Bay. Late in the week, a frontal boundary will stall out north of Florida, shifting the sub-tropical ridge farther east. This will shift the flow pattern back to more southeasterly which should give a slight bump to rain chances again by Saturday.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain warm through the entire 7-day forecast period, with highs topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s each afternoon and morning lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 836 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Increased moisture with an easterly flow today will bring a more active weather pattern to the west coast of Florida. Scattered shower and storms are expected to develop mainly between 18z-00z. Terminals with the best chance to see storms today is TPA, PGD, FMY, and RWS. Winds will start out easterly with coastal sites seeing a late afternoon seabreeze come in.

MARINE

Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

High pressure will hold northeast of Florida through late in the week with east and southeast flow continuing, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Winds and seas will generally remain less than headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms could shift west into the coastal waters during the afternoon and early evening hours each day, producing locally hazardous winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

East and southeast flow will continue through the next few days, with a sea breeze turning winds onshore near the coast each afternoon. Increasing humidity will prevent critically low humidity, but will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 74 92 75 / 70 30 30 10 FMY 95 74 94 74 / 80 20 60 10 GIF 92 71 92 73 / 40 10 20 0 SRQ 92 72 94 73 / 50 40 50 10 BKV 94 68 94 70 / 60 20 10 0 SPG 94 75 95 76 / 60 30 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.