textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday.

- Hazardous marine conditions Monday and Tuesday. - High fire weather danger in northern areas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 817 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

It has been a very active afternoon and evening with widespread showers and some strong storms moving through west central and southwest Florida. Some 1/2 inch to 3/4 inch hail, gusty winds to around 30-40 mph and some heavy rainfall amounts of 3+ inches with some flooding were reported in these strong storms. Latest radar is still showing storms firing over the area, but the latest HRRR guidance does show things winding down over the next few hours with mostly rain-free conditions expected overnight.

A cold front is still expected to move through the area of Monday producing another day of inclement weather with scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. SPC has placed all of west central and southwest Florida in a Slight to Marginal Risk for Severe Storms with tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail possible ahead of and in the vicinity of the cold front. Made some slight tweaks to POPs for the next few hours, otherwise no significant changes needed to current forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 817 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Widespread showers and storms moved through the area today impacting all terminals with some heavy rain and gusty winds around 30-40 mph. Showers and storms will taper off in the next few hours with mostly rain-free and VFR conditions and winds around 5-10 knots expected overnight. A strong cold front will move into the area on Monday with a broken line of showers and storms ahead of and in the vicinity of the front. Flight restrictions with lower CIGs and VSBY as well as gusty winds around 25-35 knots possible after 15Z on Monday and continuing through the evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 817 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Showers and storms over the eastern Gulf waters will taper off in the next few hours. A cold front will move through the region on Monday with increasing southerly winds and building seas tonight into Monday. Ahead of the front on Monday, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and lightning will move over the waters producing hazardous boating conditions. Strong high pressure building into the region in the wake of this front will increase north-northwest winds and seas on Monday afternoon into Tuesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. This has warranted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. There will also be a High Risk of Rip Currents at the local beaches on Monday and Tuesday. Winds veer northeast by early Wednesday morning, but a moderate pressure gradient will keep elevated winds around 10-15 knots and seas around 2-4 feet over portions of the waters through most of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 82 49 62 / 50 80 20 0 FMY 69 85 56 68 / 50 60 60 10 GIF 67 84 49 62 / 60 80 30 0 SRQ 70 83 49 64 / 40 70 30 0 BKV 64 83 41 62 / 60 80 20 0 SPG 73 82 54 64 / 50 80 20 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.