textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warm through the weekend, then cooler air returns early next week.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday night through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Surface high pressure over Florida will keep light winds, rain-free and warm conditions over Florida through the day. A little farther to the south, a frontal boundary extends from east to west across the Bahamas, Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf. As high pressure weakens by early Sunday morning, this front will slowly lift northward over southwest Florida bringing increasing moisture and a chance of rain for southwest Florida starting early Sunday morning and continuing through the afternoon on Sunday. These areas of rain will be limited to southwest Florida with most of west central Florida and the Nature Coast staying rain-free. Another dry cold front will push through the Florida peninsula late Sunday evening, but is not expected to bring any rainfall with it. This cold front pushes south of Florida by Monday morning and strong high pressure builds into the southeast U.S. in the wake of this front. This high will help advect in some much colder air to start out next week. Early morning temperatures on Monday and Tuesday morning will dip into the mid 30's along the Nature Coast and into the 40's and 50's for central and southwest Florida. High pressure pushes east into the western Atlantic by Wednesday morning allowing for continued rain-free conditions and a warming trend to set up over Florida. Temperatures moderate close to average by Wednesday and even warmer for the latter part of the week reaching the 80's for daytime highs.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected through today. For tonight, a front moving northward will bring a chance for rain along with reduced CIGs/VSBYs for KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW starting around 09Z and continuing through tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

High pressure ridging across Florida and into the Gulf will produce east through northeast winds around 10 knots through Sunday morning. Winds shift northerly on Sunday behind a cold front and will become gusty reaching Small Craft Advisory level by late Sunday evening and continuing through the day on Monday. Conditions improve by mid- morning on Tuesday as high pressure settles into the southeast U.S. This will keep northeast through east winds around 10-15 knots through Thursday, then further decreasing 5-10 knots for the latter part of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

No Red Flag fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Some patchy fog is expected tonight, mainly over inland locations north of Tampa Bay. A chance of showers will be possible over SW Florida early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon as a front lifts northward. Clearing and breezy conditions expected on Monday as high pressure builds into the area. No other fire weather concerns anticipated into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 78 51 66 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 65 80 56 73 / 40 40 0 0 GIF 60 79 50 65 / 10 10 0 0 SRQ 62 78 52 70 / 10 10 0 0 BKV 53 77 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 65 76 54 67 / 10 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.