textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the Nature Coast through today. Marginal risk for the remainder of West Central and Southwest Florida.

- Flood Watch now in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 8 PM Monday.

- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through Monday.

- A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the northern waters from 11 AM to 8 PM on Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) SCT SHRA/TSRA over the E Gulf coastal waters are moving ashore around Tampa Bay this morning with tempo impacts at terminals with brief LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs through the early afternoon hours before moving inland. S-SW winds today and expect ISOLD activity in SW FL terminal to keep VC in place. VFR conditions outside of convection today/tonight before another round of SHRA/TSRA Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 An anomalously sharp U/L trough will continue to dig over the eastern U.S. today and will cut-off over the southeast U.S. on Monday. The trough will rather quickly open up and lift away from the region Tuesday and Wednesday. An associated frontal boundary will sink south and stall over the Florida panhandle later today and tonight. Deep southwest flow ahead of the front will persist over west central and southwest Florida into early next week. This will also continue to create a high risk of rip currents along area beaches today. Deep tropical moisture has advected back over the forecast area with PCPW values AOA 2.25 inches...which will support locally heavy rainfall. The heaviest rain is expected to be across the nature coast where the strongest U/L support and large scale lift will occur. A flood watch is in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 8 PM Monday.

Showers/storms will develop over the northeast Gulf and adjacent coastal waters through early Sunday morning and will advect onshore through the morning/early afternoon hours. Additional showers/storms will likely develop south of the I-4 corridor due to surface heating during the late morning/early afternoon, being triggered along a weak west coast sea breeze boundary which will push inland rather quickly on the west to southwest boundary layer flow.

There will likely be a brief pause in the activity (about 6 to 8 hours) late this afternoon/evening as the atmosphere stabilizes a bit due to the widespread shower/storms. The atmosphere will destabilize once again around or after midnight with additional showers/storms redeveloping over the northeast Gulf and pushing back onshore with another round of showers/storms/locally heavy rain...with highest pops across the nature coast.

WPC has the much of the nature coast in a slight risk for excessive rainfall (15 to 39 percent chance of exceeding flash flood guidance) Sunday and Sunday night. This is very much supported by the dynamics/deep tropical moisture over the area and expected rounds of showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rain through Monday. Heaviest rainfall totals will likely occur near the coast, with locally 2 to 4 inches of rain possible today and 1 to 3 inches on Monday...with isolated higher amounts. Adding in the rainfall that fell on Saturday, the potential exists for storm total rainfall amounts through Monday of 4 to 8 inches across the watch area, with locally higher amounts likely.

Highest pops each day will be across the north with lower pops south...however as mentioned previously, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across all of west central and southwest Florida today and Monday with localized flooding of urban and low lying poor drainage areas possible each day.

The U/L trough will begin to lift away from the forecast area early next week, with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic building across the Florida peninsula. Tuesday will be a transition day as the boundary layer flow becomes re-established from the east to southeast by mid week. More typical summertime pattern will develop shifting the timing of daily showers/storms to the mid/late afternoon and evening with the highest pops along the coastal counties as the west coast sea breeze boundary fails to progress very far inland each day...before being pushed back to the coast and offshore during the late afternoon/evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1217 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 West to southwest flow will persist today and into early next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and pushing onshore around and shortly after sunrise each day. Winds will increase to advisory levels across the northern waters today, and will be cautionary or near advisory levels on Monday. Near cautionary level winds will occur on portions of the central waters today and will remain elevated on Monday. Winds and seas will subside by the middle of the week as high pressure builds over the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1217 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 79 88 79 / 70 50 50 30 FMY 90 77 92 78 / 40 20 40 10 GIF 88 75 90 76 / 70 30 50 10 SRQ 88 78 90 77 / 60 40 40 20 BKV 86 74 89 73 / 80 50 60 40 SPG 86 80 87 80 / 60 50 40 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.