textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- The wet pattern will continue through the weekend and into early next week, with numerous thunderstorms developing each day. Gusty winds and localized flooding will be possible with the strongest storms.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist each day. Highs in the lower 90s will feel more like 100 to 105 due to the humidity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Weak surface high pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula for the next several days with light southeast boundary layer flow, which will become onshore near the coast each afternoon. The west coast sea breeze boundary will hold over the coastal counties each day, and will be the focus for enhanced convection during the mid/late afternoon and early evening hours. Generally, thunderstorm activity will develop over southwest Florida by mid afternoon and build up the west coast sea breeze boundary through the remainder of the day. A few storms may be strong with wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH.

Deep tropical moisture will persist over the forecast area with PCPW values over 2 inches, which will continue the risk for locally heavy rain and flooding of urban/flood prone areas. The additional rainfall will also increase the risk for river flooding across portions of the region, mainly from the Tampa Bay area and south. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normals through the period.

Some drier air aloft may advect over the region by the middle of next week which could decrease areal coverage of afternoon storms and the risk for heavy rainfall. At this point, NBM POPs appear too high...although overall confidence in the extended forecast is low.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026 VFR CIGs AOA 120 will persist for the next several hours, becoming partly cloudy late which will persist into Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness on Friday with SCT LCL BKN 025-035 developing vcnty all terminals during the late morning/early afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop during the mid/late afternoon and may impact all terminals for a few hours with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Weak high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with winds below cautionary levels each day. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, which may cause locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as abundant moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 78 91 78 / 50 20 70 30 FMY 93 77 92 77 / 70 30 70 20 GIF 93 76 93 75 / 60 30 70 10 SRQ 91 77 92 76 / 40 20 70 30 BKV 92 74 93 74 / 60 30 70 30 SPG 90 78 90 79 / 50 20 70 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.