textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 742 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thudnerstorms are forecast over the interior and parts of southwest Florida today, then rain chances will be very limited across the area Friday through Monday. - Slightly cooler and less humid air will fill into the area tonight through early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 742 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue this morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF forecast period. North to northeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots this morning and continue into this evening, then diminish to 5 to 10 knots later this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a much drier air mass over northern Florida pushing into the Florida Peninsula today associated with an incoming cold front. This cold front is being dragged into the area by a developing area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and the front is forecast to push south-southwest through the forecast area today, ushering in a cooler and drier air mass. Today will be a transition day, with enough moisture still present to allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to work southwest into the interior and parts of southwest Florida during the afternoon, although much of the forecast area is likely to be rain free today. High temperatures may be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday over the Nature Coast counties, but otherwise temperatures will be similar to the first half of the week. As the cold air advection continues tonight into Friday and the weekend, temperatures will drop across the area, with morning lows this weekend in the low to mid 60s north, and mid 60s to low 70s central and south. Afternoon maximums will top out in the mid to upper 80s, but with surface dew points in the 60s (or even upper 50s over the Nature Coast), the air should feel noticeably drier. Otherwise, the drier air will keep rain chances close to zero across the area Friday through the weekend under mostly sunny skies.

Monday through the first half of the week, surface high pressure will set back up over the west Atlantic as the coastal low pulls away, allowing low level flow to slowly turn back to southerly. This will gradually allow temperatures and moisture to moderate back to near normal. Most of the area will stay rain free on Monday apart from a few stray showers or storms, then isolated to scattered coverage is forecast for Tuesday, and scattered to numerous coverage by Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A weak cold front will move south-southwest through the area today, with northeast winds running at Exercise Caution levels today, and increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels by this evening. Winds will remain around Advisory/Cautionary levels through Friday night, gradually subsiding Saturday through the rest of the weekend. Otherwise, the drier air will keep rain chances limited through the start of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A cold front moving south through the area today will bring in a drier air mass, with isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon, mainly over the interior, and then very little rain expected on Friday. Relative humidity will be lower this weekend, but widespread critically low humidity is not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 71 86 68 / 10 0 0 0 FMY 90 73 88 70 / 20 10 10 0 GIF 90 71 87 66 / 20 0 10 0 SRQ 90 72 88 68 / 10 10 10 0 BKV 90 69 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 89 73 87 71 / 10 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.