textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend continues through Wednesday.

- Next cold front brings rain chances late Wednesday into Thursday, and hazardous marine conditions on Thursday.

- Next chance of freezing temperatures expected Friday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 825 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Forecast on track with no changes planned for the evening update. Surface high remains over the peninsula this evening with light winds across the area beneath zonal westerly flow aloft. Mostly quiet Wednesday expected locally ahead of an approaching cold front that crosses the area Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Frost Advisory remains in effect tonight for Nature Coast counties as mostly clear and calm conditions favor efficient radiational cooling dropping temps into the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s to mid 40s central and south aside from slightly warmer immediate coastal areas in the upper 40s to around 50.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

High pressure directly over the state is giving us light winds and clear skies allowing for temperatures to finally get back into 60 for the first time in 3 to 4 days. Temperatures will dip quickly overnight but still be a little warmer with areas south of I-4 in the low 40's and north of I-4 in the mid to upper 30's. RHs will be approaching 100 percent by morning along the Nature Coast and with temperatures in the mid 30's a frost advisory has been issued for the area.

Another strong cold front will start to push through the southeast but ahead of it we will see warming temperatures with highs getting back in the 70's for most of us in the afternoon. The front will be pushing through overnight bringing scattered showers to the area. Behind the front cold air will dive back into the state once again with temperatures dropping Thursday afternoon. This front will not bring the historical cold we saw during the weekend but lows will dip into the mid to upper 30's Friday morning with highs struggling to get into the 60's.

By the weekend high pressure settles back in and high temperatures rebound back into the 70's once again. Looking at early next week a front will stall just north of Florida which will result in temperatures slowly increasing Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 759 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Dry VFR through the period with light winds overnight increasing out of the S/SW late morning into early afternoon, diminishing into the evening. Approaching front to bring increasing clouds and eventual shower chances and associated restrictions but expected to hold off until subsequent cycles.

MARINE

Issued at 130 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Wind are light out of the east as high pressure sites over the state. The high pressure will move away in response to a cold front that will start to push through the southeast. This will shift winds to the south from 5 to 10 mph on Wednesday. The front will push through Wednesday night with winds quickly increasing and shift to the northwest. By Thursday morning we will see winds 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30 mph. A small craft advisory will be likely throughout the day on Thursday. Winds will drop on Friday but will on the higher side around 15 to 20 knots before dropping to 10 to 15 knots on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

RHs will be on the rise Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area. This front will push through Wednesday night bringing scattered showers across the area. RHs will stay above critical level on Thursday but drier air will start to filter in by Friday. We will see critical RHs for Friday and the weekend but winds should remain below critical levels for a red flag warning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 45 70 51 59 / 0 0 70 30 FMY 46 73 54 65 / 0 0 30 60 GIF 43 73 50 61 / 0 0 60 40 SRQ 43 70 53 61 / 0 0 70 40 BKV 33 72 44 58 / 0 0 80 30 SPG 50 68 55 61 / 0 0 80 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.