textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Cu clouds have been filling in decorating the skies across the state. High pressure continues to dominate weather conditions over the region. ACAR soundings show slightly drier air but not enough to completely keep any showers from developing along the sea breeze. Likewise, the already unstable atmosphere has been taking in all of the daytime heating. The missing factor right now is when and if the sea breeze will it form and how far inland it will make it. Pockets of drier air should continue to push in from the east, so the higher chances will lay where the highest moisture availability exists. If showers get to develop, temperatures aloft are cold enough to support small hail once again today. The highest chances expected along the coast, especially in northern and central portions of the state.

Most of the activity will push offshore where some of the guidance keeps it through most of the evening. Overnight lows drop into the mid to upper 60s. For Saturday, the aforementioned dry air will advect into the areas high pressure builds. This will keep rain chances low with afternoon highs climbing into upper 80s.

LONG TERM (SUN-THU)

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

By early next week, moisture will gradually increase as U/L disturbance and associated front approach the region. As a result, rain chances increase and linger through much of the week. Additionally, cloud coverage will prevent temperatures from reaching 80 degrees both Tuesday and in some areas on Wednesday. Advisory level winds are possible mid week with temperatures returning to near normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated trough the period across terminals. Breezy east to southeasterly winds staying in place through the afternoon and gradually decrease into the evening. There is a nonzero chance of showers near TPA/PIE but confidence is too low at this time to add it to the forecast. Breezy winds return late morning on Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend. East to southeasterly winds below cautionary level prevail. There are chances of showers and storms this afternoon along the coast and potentially lingering over the water through the evening hours. Drier air should filter on Saturday and parts of Sunday keeping rain chances low. Then, a cold front will move over the waters early next week with winds shifting to the north and northwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Area of high pressure dominates over the region. Drier air will be advecting across fire districts through the weekend. Minimum humidity values will remain above critical levels with east to southeasterly winds prevailing. By early next week, a cold front will increase rain chances back into the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 88 68 87 / 10 10 0 20 FMY 67 89 68 88 / 0 20 0 40 GIF 66 89 66 89 / 0 20 0 50 SRQ 67 87 66 86 / 10 10 0 20 BKV 62 90 61 88 / 10 10 0 30 SPG 71 88 70 87 / 10 10 0 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.