textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area today and Wednesday.

- Breezy marine winds this morning will subside by this afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing the upper/mid level circulation that recently passed through Florida is now positioned over the southern Gulf, although deep moisture is continuing to stream across Florida to the northeast of this system. The surface ridge north of Florida is continuing to produce modest east-northeast flow across the forecast area today, and combined with the abundant available moisture, isolated convection is forecast to lift northwest into the area this morning. Sunshine should be more prevalent than the last couple of days, which will allow for warmer max temperatures and in turn fuel scattered to numerous showers and storms through the afternoon and evening.

Easterly flow will weaken slightly on Wednesday as the surface ridge settles south into the region, but deep moisture will continue to fuel scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms. By Thursday, drier air will be advecting into the forecast area from the Atlantic, limiting additional rain chances.

Friday into the weekend, a shortwave trough swinging through the eastern Great Lakes will drag a weak cold front into the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level support so far to the north, model guidance has been slowing down and weakening this frontal passage into the forecast area, but slightly lower dew points and cooler morning temperatures are forecast to arrive by the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Otherwise, moisture ahead of the front is expected to be too dry to result in significant rain chances along the frontal passage.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 254 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Some MVFR or IFR ceilings will be possible early this morning, lifting out by around 14z. Otherwise, showers and a few storms are forecast to move northwest through the area this morning, and could impact area terminals at times. Scattered to numerous storms are then forecast across the area in the afternoon and early evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 254 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

High pressure north of Florida will gradually settle into the area through the next few days, with east and southeast flow gradually subsiding through Thursday. Scattered showers and storms today and tonight will create locally higher winds and rough seas, then lower rain chances are forecast for the rest of the week. A weak cold front will turn winds to northwesterly and northerly by Friday and Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 254 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Deep moisture will hold over the area through midweek, with no humidity concerns. Scattered showers and a few storms will shift west into the area through the morning hours today under continued east-northeast winds, then thunderstorm coverage will increase in the afternoon. Wind speeds will be a bit lighter on Wednesday, with scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 72 85 71 / 60 20 40 20 FMY 86 72 86 71 / 60 20 50 20 GIF 86 71 87 70 / 70 10 50 20 SRQ 85 71 85 70 / 50 20 30 20 BKV 87 70 87 69 / 70 10 40 10 SPG 83 73 83 72 / 60 20 40 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.