textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory today for Levy, Citrus, and Sumter counties.

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through the week as a WSW wind flow prevails. Overnight lows will continue to be warm, in excess of 80 degrees along the coast.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue each day. Heavy rainfall is the primary concern, particularly in urbanized areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Onshore boundary layer flow will continue today and will persist through the upcoming weekend. This favors scattered to numerous overnight showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop over the coastal waters which advect locally onshore, especially around and shortly after sunrise. Weak U/L disturbance over the region will aid in producing large scale lift which will enhance shower/thunderstorm activity today. Deep tropical moisture over the area will also create the risk for locally heavy rain and flooding of streets/low lying flood prone areas.

A frontal boundary will drop over north Florida late Wednesday and Thursday which will increase the areal coverage of showers/thunderstorms across the nature coast with a continued risk for locally heavy rain/flooding. The boundary will remain quasi-stationary across north Florida through the weekend with continued highest pops north and risk for locally heavy rain. The flood threat may potentially increase over the next several days as daily rainfall totals accumulate and antecedent soil conditions become highly saturated.

Early next week, some drier air aloft may try to work its way over the forecast area which would decrease areal coverage of mainly afternoon showers/storms.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 VFR CIGs will likely persist through the remainder of the night at TPA/PIE/SRQ with a chance of showers/thunderstorms developing a few hours before sunrise with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs. FMY/RSW/PGD should see some clearing overnight with skies becoming SCT LCL BKN250. Scattered showers/storms will develop vcnty all terminals on Tuesday with areas of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in showers...and MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs associated with thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 1216 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms will occur each night for the next several days, with areal coverage decreasing during the afternoon hours...except possibly across the northern waters late in the week and over the weekend due to a frontal boundary in the area. Winds may increase to cautionary levels for a time late in the week and over the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 81 91 81 / 50 30 50 40 FMY 90 80 92 80 / 70 30 30 10 GIF 94 78 94 79 / 50 10 40 10 SRQ 91 80 91 80 / 60 30 40 30 BKV 94 78 93 78 / 50 30 40 50 SPG 90 81 90 82 / 60 30 50 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy- Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.