textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 702 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Heat Advisory today for most of the area for heat index values up to around 110 degrees. Daily heat index values of 105+ degrees likely to continue through the weekend areawide.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) of severe storms with damaging wind gust threat today from the Nature Coast to interior central and southern locations.

- Increased afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected. The best rain chances are east of the terminals, but there is a window in which a few stray storms will be near terminals this afternoon. Tomorrow could see an earlier start to rain as models are showing higher chances near the Tampa Bay area in the morning. Similar to today, convection will generally shift eastward through tomorrow afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Another day of very warm and humid conditions with heat indices climbing to advisory levels for much of the area today. A Heat Advisory is once again in effect for all of WC/SWFL extending into the Nature Coast from late this morning through the afternoon. Mid-level ridging remains across the southern peninsula early this morning but will become displaced S/E into the Atlantic for the next few days as mid-level energy associated with Arthur's remnants leaves behind a weakness aloft over the SE coast through the weekend. Impulses propagating eastward through the flow combined with moist unstable conditions over the peninsula will lead to an uptick in showers and storms locally, particularly today through Sunday. Latest guidance indicates clusters of showers and storms affecting areas across the Nature Coast closer to stronger mid-level flow over the next few days as impulses propagate through, while central and southern areas away from the immediate coast will be the focus of additional diurnally-driven convection in association with the sea breeze. Given strong instability expected this afternoon, some stronger storms will be likely posing a primary threat of damaging wind gusts. A Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) of severe storms encompasses most of the area today for potential activity later this afternoon, from the Nature Coast to central and southern interior locations. While flow aloft gradually weakens over the weekend lessening the overall severe threat, moisture creeps up locally with PWATs of 1.8-2 inches over the area, with a W-E oriented axis of 2+ inch PWATs situated over the northern half of the peninsula and panhandle. As a result, mainly isolated to scattered showers and storms are likely today, with highest chances north and interior, with scattered to numerous showers and storms likely on Saturday and Sunday, again favoring north and interior locations.

Ridging aloft builds over the area early next week while the surface ridge axis slowly lifts north over the southern and central peninsula, with decreasing PWATs supporting isolated to scattered showers and storms generally along and south of I-4 on Monday and Tuesday. Coverage spreads northward across the area from mid to late week, with areas away from the immediate coast favored for highest chances under light flow. Temps remain seasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast, and mid to upper 90s further inland. Triple digit heat indices will continue most of the area with many locations climbing to 105+ degrees.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

No headlines expected through the period although showers and storms will be possible mainly over northern and central waters through the weekend. Locally higher winds and seas likely in/near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Warm and humid conditions expected through the period with minimal fire concerns. Increased shower and storm coverage through the weekend followed by slightly drier conditions early next week, particularly north of I-4, before again increasing mid to late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 81 92 80 / 20 10 30 10 FMY 94 79 94 78 / 20 20 40 10 GIF 95 77 95 76 / 40 20 50 10 SRQ 93 80 92 79 / 20 10 10 10 BKV 94 78 93 75 / 30 20 40 10 SPG 92 81 92 80 / 20 10 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.