textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 840 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Thunderstorm coverage and rain totals will increase today and Tuesday, with rainy conditions continuing through the rest of the week.

- Marine winds over the northeastern Gulf will increase late Tuesday through the rest of the week, creating hazardous boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Currently at the surface, a slow moving cold front is pushing south into northern Florida, and will slowly advance into the forecast area by late Tuesday before stalling out over central Florida on Wednesday. With deep moisture pooling along and ahead of this front, PWAT values are expected to run around 2.25 to 2.50 inches through at least Thursday, before moderating somewhat Friday through the weekend as the front retreats back north. Under this pattern, the forecast for the week will be rather cloudy and rainy, with numerous to widespread showers and storms today over the northern half of the forecast area, and isolated to scattered to the south, then coverage will become more widespread across the entire area Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday and Thursday, slightly drier air filtering south into the Nature Coast is expected to keep storm coverage scattered there, while deeper moisture over the central and southern portions of the forecast area will favor numerous to widespread coverage. With this prolonged wet pattern, 5-day QPFs generally range from 2 to 4 inches, but locally higher amounts leading to flooding will be possible. Otherwise, the clouds and rain will keep afternoon temperatures subdued, topping out in the low to mid 80s Wednesday through Friday.

During the weekend, storm chances and rain totals will moderate somewhat as the front retreats north, but moisture will still be high enough for scattered to numerous storms each day. Temperatures will also increase again towards the end of the week as sunshine begins to return.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 840 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

We are watching a slow moving cold front which will push into north Florida this afternoon and over Central FLorida by the overnight hours. Best chance of storms today will be in Central Florida. We could see some morning showers pushing in from the Gulf tomorrow morning thanks to the front. Wind will primary be below 10 knots with VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 322 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A slow moving cold front will sag into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday before stalling out across central Florida on Wednesday. Winds behind the front will increase and turn to northeasterly and easterly, with Small Craft Advisory or Exercise Caution headlines being needed from late Tuesday through the rest of the week, mainly for the Gulf waters from around the Tampa Bay north. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage will be more widespread throughout the week, with locally stronger winds and dangerous lightning possible near storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 322 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Deep moisture will hold over the area this week as a cold front slowly approaches from the north and moves into the Nature Coast by late Tuesday. Numerous to widespread storms will develop today mainly north of Interstate 4, with isolated to scattered storms to the south, then coverage will become more widespread on Tuesday. Humidity will be too high to create Red Flag concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 76 84 74 / 50 40 90 70 FMY 90 76 87 75 / 20 40 60 40 GIF 91 74 87 74 / 60 60 90 60 SRQ 88 75 86 74 / 30 40 70 70 BKV 89 72 84 70 / 50 40 90 60 SPG 87 76 85 75 / 40 40 80 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.