textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast during the morning hours moving eastward during the afternoon/evening through the weekend.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

We are seeing a shift in the wind flow to a more onshore south- southwest flow as the high pressure center shifts southeastward and ridges westward across south Florida and into the central Gulf. This onshore flow combined with continued abundant moisture has led to scattered showers and storms along the coastline this morning. Coverage will increase to scattered to numerous this afternoon and evening as they traverse eastward over the interior. Similar conditions expected on Sunday with early morning showers and storms over the eastern Gulf waters and along the west coast traversing eastward through the day. Not a lot of change expected in the weather pattern through the middle of next week.

By Wednesday, high pressure remains over south Florida and a south- southwest onshore shore will prevail, but some slightly drier air with PWAT values around 1.7-2.0 inches will move over the region. This is still abundant moisture for daily showers and storms, but may slightly decrease chances down to around 20-40 percent from Wednesday through the end of next week. Near seasonal temps in the low to mid 90s continue with heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees expected each afternoon. Overnight lows remain warm and muggy in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Showers and storms have been pushing through the terminals this morning and will continue to traverse eastward through the afternoon. Will keep VCTS at all terminals through 20Z and TEMPO TSRA at LAL through 21Z, then rain-free through the evening hours. More showers and storms possible during the early morning hours on Sunday after 09Z, so will cover this with VCTS and PROB30 TSRA at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Pleasant boating conditions expected through the weekend and into next week with winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. The only marine impact expected will be some scattered showers and storms, which may produce some gusty erratic winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than 10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 90 81 91 / 50 40 30 40 FMY 77 91 78 93 / 40 40 30 60 GIF 76 92 76 94 / 30 60 20 80 SRQ 79 91 79 92 / 40 30 30 40 BKV 74 92 74 93 / 40 40 30 50 SPG 80 90 80 91 / 50 30 30 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.