textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 615 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. - Drier and slightly cooler air will start to move in Thursday and will hold into early next week. Rain chances will be limited across the area Friday through Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 615 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Some convection is still developing across SW FL, however, most showers and storms have dissipated and/or push offshore. East to northeasterly winds prevail overnight with lows dropping a degree or two, especially across the interior Nature Coast. This pattern could support low clouds early in the morning, but there should be enough wind to move them along and should begin to clear out after sunrise. Breezy winds will increase through the morning hours on Thursday. Also, drier air will begin settle in across the peninsula keeping rain chances low with the highest chances (up to 20%) expected across SW FL portions of the state. Afternoon highs may struggle to climb over 90 degrees with northern locations staying in the upper 80s.

No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Showers and storms should dissipate or move offshore over the next few hours. Then, VFR conditions are anticipated for most of the overnight hours. Current pattern may support low clouds to develop early in the morning bringing intermittent MVFR/IFR cigs to terminals at least through mid morning. Drier air should keep low rain chances with up to 20 percent chance across SWFL TAF sites. Breezy winds to increase through the day on Thursday with VFR conditions expected during the afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 89 72 87 / 20 10 0 0 FMY 75 90 73 89 / 20 20 10 0 GIF 74 91 71 88 / 10 20 0 10 SRQ 74 91 73 89 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 73 90 70 87 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 76 90 73 87 / 30 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.