textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall mainly in urban areas with the higher thunderstorm activity each day through much of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure remains over the southeast U.S. An inverted trough on the southern periphery of this ridge will move across Florida today and Thursday, keeping a predominant northeast through southeast wind flow over west central and southwest Florida for the next couple of days. Abundant moisture with PWAT values between 2.1 - 2.5 inches will support numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday in the heavier showers and storms, as well as frequent lightning and gusty winds.

By Friday morning, the upper ridge and surface high pressure shifts slightly southeastward while a weak area of low pressure sits over the northeast Gulf. This will bring a shift in the winds to a more south-southeast direction. Winds further shift to the south- southwest by Saturday morning as the area of low pressure remains over the northeast Gulf and the high pressure ridge shifts south over south Florida. This pattern with onshore flow will persist on Sunday and into the first part of next week. Abundant moisture will persist over the weekend and into next week with continued scattered to numerous showers and storms possible each day. The timing of showers and storms will shift over the weekend and into next week with overnight and early morning showers over the eastern Gulf waters and then traversing eastward along the coastline late morning and then over the interior during the early afternoon.

Temperatures will remain around average topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Heat indices will remain below Advisory criteria reaching 100-105 degrees each afternoon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions and northeast winds less than 10 knots will prevail through most of the period. Winds will become onshore during the afternoon as the sea breeze sets up along the west coast. Similar to the past few days, numerous showers and scattered storms expected during the afternoon and evening, so will cover this with VCTS and TEMPO TSRA between 19-02Z. Gusty winds, lower CIGs and VSBY reductions possible in thunderstorms and showers.

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Light northeast through southeast winds at 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less will will be in place through Thursday with a late afternoon sea breeze close to the coast each day. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day, mainly pushing offshore in the late afternoon and evenings and lingering over the waters through the overnight hours. A shift in winds to a more south through southwest direction is expected on Friday and into the weekend, but still remaining light at 10 knots or less. This will favor overnight and early morning showers and storms over the eastern Gulf waters and traversing eastward over land late morning into the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Northeast through southeast winds will continue through Thursday, except along the west coast where the sea breeze will set up in the afternoon producing onshore winds. Abundant moisture will remain across the region allowing for numerous to widespread afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 77 89 78 / 70 50 70 20 FMY 92 76 92 77 / 50 30 60 20 GIF 91 75 92 76 / 70 50 80 20 SRQ 91 76 90 77 / 60 50 60 20 BKV 90 72 91 73 / 80 40 80 20 SPG 89 77 89 78 / 60 50 60 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.