textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees are expected through the week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) VFR conditions overnight area wide with light winds and clearing skies. Expect another afternoon WED as VCTS develop near most terminals with best chances for MVFR cigs/vsby and gusty winds aft 18Z.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Strong upper level ridging will remain over the eastern U.S. into Friday with some shortwave energy drifting west around the base of the ridge. This will help push a weakening cool front into north Florida today which then washes out over the region on Wednesday. For today the flow will remain rather light with deep moisture, precipitable water >2 inches, south of the boundary overspreading the area. This combined with the sea breezes and daytime heating will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms starting late this morning and continuing into this evening. Convection will drift toward southwest so most areas have a decent chance of seeing some rainfall today. Tonight into Wednesday the boundary will wash out over the region with an easterly flow setting up across the peninsula. The deepest moisture will setup from around the I-4 corridor south and with the easterly flow the highest rain chances will be along the coastal counties from around Tampa Bay southward. On Thursday, an east to southeast flow sets up with the deep moisture still from around the I-4 corridor south.

Late in the week into early next week the upper level ridging will breakdown with the surface ridge shifting south and east. This will shift the flow to a more south to southwest direction across the region. Plenty of moisture will remain over the area so expect to see more scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection each day, but cannot rule out a morning shower or thunderstorm near the coast from around Tampa Bay north.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with daytime highs from the upper 80s along the coast to the mid 90s inland and overnight lows in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 92 78 92 / 20 50 30 60 FMY 77 94 76 93 / 30 70 40 80 GIF 75 92 75 94 / 20 60 10 70 SRQ 76 93 77 92 / 30 50 40 60 BKV 72 94 72 94 / 20 40 10 50 SPG 79 93 78 92 / 30 50 40 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.