textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through early next week.

- Numerous to widespread showers and storms will develop each day through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 908 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The atmosphere this morning is very similar to yesterday. This mornings 12z soundings indicates 2.08 inches of PW values with generally southerly to southwesterly low level flow. These PW values are around the 75th percentile for late August. Similar to yesterday, showers/storms offshore are moving onshore late this morning and should see the best coverage of showers/storms early this afternoon across the interior. These showers/storms will eventually drift to the east coast later in the day. Latest HiRes models also support this idea. With high PW values, storms that do develop, will be able to produce locally heavy rainfall. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026 High pressure surface and aloft will persist over west central and southwest Florida for the next several days. Light southerly boundary layer flow will shift to the southwest this morning with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the coastal counties. The showers/storms will push inland during the afternoon hours and increase in areal coverage. A few storms may be strong with wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH.

Over the weekend, light east to southeast boundary layer flow will develop which will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties. The east coast sea breeze boundary will push across the peninsula through the day with scattered showers and storms. Areal coverage of storms will increase over the coastal counties late in the day as the east coast sea breeze boundary collides with the west coast sea breeze boundary. A few storms may be strong with damaging wind gusts.

Similar pattern will hold through the middle of next week. Some drier air aloft will advect over the northern forecast area which will decrease areal coverage of storms across the nature coast, with highest pops over southwest Florida in region of best available deep layer moisture. The drier air aloft may increase the risk for a few strong storms each day.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 658 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions currently across the terminals. There are a few scattered showers/storms currently offshore that have a low chance of impacting KTPA, KPIE, and KSRQ this morning. For now, have kept the terminals dry through 15z. After that, expect scattered showers/storms near the terminals and have VCTS in the TAFs. VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF cycle, except for brief period of MVFR/IFR possible in heavier downpours.

MARINE

Issued at 1202 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the forecast period with generally light winds and seas. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1202 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 91 77 / 40 10 60 40 FMY 94 77 94 76 / 50 30 80 40 GIF 94 75 94 76 / 60 40 70 30 SRQ 91 76 92 75 / 30 10 60 40 BKV 90 72 93 72 / 60 20 70 40 SPG 89 78 91 78 / 40 10 50 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.