textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures through Thursday, turning colder Friday and over the weekend. - Little in the way of rain expected through the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 U/L pattern change underway as the quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS is transitioning into a high amplitude pattern. By the end of the week, a cut-off low will take shape offshore the Pacific northwest with another cut-off low over the Great Lakes region. Southern stream flow will undercut the overall pattern across central Mexico, the southern Gulf, and south Florida...with a S/W disturbance pushing across Baja California. Over the weekend, both of the cut-offs will open up and lift out to the northeast allowing the southern stream flow to shift poleward establishing itself across the southern tier of the U.S. The southern stream S/W disturbance will push across the southern Plains on Saturday, with additional northern stream energy digging into the same region on Sunday. Early next week, the next strong upstream disturbance will approach the western U.S. and induce downstream ridging through the Plains, with the southern stream disturbance pushing across the southern Mississippi Valley and coming in- phase with a northern stream disturbance over the Great Lakes. Low confidence in the extended period as the this overall system will then rotate out across the mid Atlantic coast with the U/L trough pushing across the Florida peninsula, in the process likely inducing cyclogenesis over the northeast Gulf which would track northeast toward the mid Atlantic coast.

At the surface, weak high pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida through Thursday. Southern stream U/L flow across the forecast area combined with a weak U/L disturbance will continue to create high cloudiness across the region, with a slight chance of a light shower mainly during the afternoon and evening hours each day. Temperatures will continue to run near climatic normals.

As the U/L pattern amplifies, an associated cold front will push across west central and southwest Florida Thursday night and early Friday with a chance of showers across the southern forecast area in region of best available moisture. Much colder drier air will advect over the forecast area in the wake of the front Friday and into the weekend with temperatures expected to be about 10 degrees below climatic normals. There is the potential that overnight lows Friday and Saturday night could drop into the upper 30s across portions of the nature coast.

As heights rise over the forecast area early next week and easterly boundary layer flow off the Atlantic modifies the relatively cold airmass, temperatures will recover rather quickly returning back to near climatic normals. High cloudiness likely each day as jet cirrus associated with the U/L southern stream flow advects over the region. Will have to monitor the potential for shower/thunderstorm activity associated with a southern stream disturbance that could move across the peninsula early next week as well associated with the potential for cyclogenesis over the northeast Gulf.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 VFR CIGs AOA 120 will persist at all terminals for the next 24 hours. SCT LCL BKN 040-050 skies will also continue through the night, with marginal MVFR CIGs possible Wednesday morning around 030. Chance of a light afternoon shower vcnty mainly LAL/PGD/RSW/FMY Thursday afternoon with predominately VFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 1216 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 Light winds and rather benign conditions are expected on the waters today and Thursday. A cold front will push across the waters Thursday night and Friday with increasing north to northwest winds which will likely increase to cautionary levels on portions of the waters Friday and Friday night. Winds will shift to the east and northeast late in the weekend dropping back below cautionary levels. Winds and seas may increase again early next week ahead of an area of low pressure, however, confidence is low in the extended portion of the forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected through Thursday as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. Drier air will advect across the region Friday and hold over the area through the weekend with minimum afternoon relative humidity values dropping into the upper 30s north and mid 40s central on Friday...and the mid to upper 30s across much of west central and southwest Florida away from the coast on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 82 67 80 62 / 10 0 0 10 FMY 85 69 81 69 / 20 20 40 20 GIF 84 62 81 59 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 81 69 80 66 / 10 10 10 20 BKV 81 60 80 56 / 30 0 0 0 SPG 79 69 78 64 / 10 0 0 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.