textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous beach conditions with dangerous rip currents continue through this evening.

- A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across the southern areas through this afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Cold front moving over the FL Peninsula this afternoon pushing prefrontal band of showers and thunderstorms through southern zones with brief training of cells that could produce locally heavy rain for a few more hours with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall ending shortly.

Residual swells left by Isaias over the eastern Gulf will continue to create a high risk of rip currents today along area beaches.

Weak surface high pressure building into the region tonight into Monday finally ushering in a much drier airmass surface and aloft, with no rain expected Monday or Tuesday as dew points drop into the upper 50s north and the 60s central and south.

Forecast continues to indicate the boundary layer winds will veer to the east on Wednesday off the Atlantic which will gradually increase low level moisture with the risk of an afternoon shower over the interior, however overall conditions are expected to remain dry across the forecast area.

Late in the week, deep layer moisture will increase from south to north with an increasing chance for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms with highest pops south.

Very warm conditions are expected through the forecast period with high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90, albeit a bit more comfortable due to the lower dew points.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Cold front moving down the FL Peninsula this afternoon with pre frontal broken band of SHRA/TSRA then a narrow band of IFR cigs and -RA. Once the front moves thru a location winds turn N and skies begin to clear shortly thereafter as the entire system moves thru by around 00Z. VFR conditions and light N-NE winds expected all areas tonight into Mon.

MARINE

High pressure building into the region will allow winds and seas to gradually subside through Monday. Surface high pressure will remain over the waters mid week with generally east to northeast winds each day below cautionary levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Weak high pressure and a drier airmass will advect over west central and southwest Florida on Monday and will hold across the area though mid week, however relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 85 69 86 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 75 87 69 87 / 10 10 0 0 GIF 67 87 66 88 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 72 86 70 86 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 64 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 73 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.