textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 818 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- The wet pattern will continue through the weekend and into early next week, with numerous thunderstorms developing each day. Gusty winds and localized flooding will be possible with the strongest storms.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist each day. Highs in the lower 90s will feel more like 100 to 105 due to the humidity.

UPDATE

Issued at 840 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Morning TBW sounding continues to indicate abundant moisture, precipitable water a little over 2 inches, with slightly stronger southerly flow at around 11 knots. The rest of the morning should remain quiet over land with scattered convection over the coastal waters. Should then see convection develop along the sea breezes and move inland this afternoon with highest PoPs extending from southwest Florida north across the interior later this afternoon and early evening. Overall forecast looks on track with no changes needed at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 810 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

MVFR/occasional IFR conditions will be possible in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail. Light southeast to south winds early this morning will become southwest to west at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, then become light and variable this evening. The exception will be near any convection where gusty erratic winds are expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Weak surface high pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula for the next several days with light southeast boundary layer flow, which will become onshore near the coast each afternoon. The west coast sea breeze boundary will hold over the coastal counties each day, and will be the focus for enhanced convection during the mid/late afternoon and early evening hours. Generally, thunderstorm activity will develop over southwest Florida by mid afternoon and build up the west coast sea breeze boundary through the remainder of the day. A few storms may be strong with wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH.

Deep tropical moisture will persist over the forecast area with PCPW values over 2 inches, which will continue the risk for locally heavy rain and flooding of urban/flood prone areas. The additional rainfall will also increase the risk for river flooding across portions of the region, mainly from the Tampa Bay area and south. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normals through the period.

Some drier air aloft may advect over the region by the middle of next week which could decrease areal coverage of afternoon storms and the risk for heavy rainfall. At this point, NBM POPs appear too high...although overall confidence in the extended forecast is low.

MARINE

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Weak high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with winds below cautionary levels each day. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, which may cause locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as abundant moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 90 78 / 50 30 60 30 FMY 92 77 92 76 / 70 30 80 30 GIF 93 76 93 76 / 60 40 70 20 SRQ 91 77 92 77 / 40 30 60 30 BKV 92 73 92 73 / 50 30 60 30 SPG 89 78 90 79 / 40 30 60 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.