textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before a cold front brings in milder temperatures by Sunday.

- A few showers will be possible over the Nature Coast Thursday and Friday, then much better rain chances across the entire region late Saturday through Sunday night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Surface high pressure over northern Florida today will slide south Thursday and Friday as a weak shortwave swings through the southeastern US. This will allow light easterly flow this morning to become more southwesterly and westerly this afternoon through Friday. As a result, above normal temperatures will continue with the warmest temperatures over the interior and away from the immediate coast. As that shortwave passes through, a frontal boundary will stall north of the forecast area Thursday and Friday, with moisture just south of this boundary bringing in 20-40 percent chances of showers Thursday and Friday over parts of the Nature Coast.

During the weekend, a series of stronger shortwaves will push through the southeastern CONUS, allowing the stalled frontal boundary to push south through the forecast area. Deep moisture will pool to the south of this boundary, leading to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Weak cold air advection behind the front plus rainy and cloudy conditions on Sunday will be enough to drop temperatures by about 5-10 degrees on Sunday, then temperatures will quickly warm back up to near normal Monday and Tuesday as high pressure and drier conditions fill back into the area.

MARINE

Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

High pressure will continue to slide south through the waters during the rest of the work week, keeping winds and seas less than headline criteria. A few showers or storms will be possible Thursday and Friday over the northern waters, with otherwise rain free conditions lasting through Saturday morning. Conditions will begin to deteriorate Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, with increasing wind speeds and rain chances late Saturday through Sunday. Advisory or cautionary level winds and seas are forecast to begin Saturday afternoon and last through Sunday evening. Behind the front, high pressure will build in from the northwest on Monday, allowing marine conditions to improve.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A dry air mass will hold in place through the rest of the week, with relative humidity percentages dropping into the mid to upper 30s each afternoon, mainly over the interior. However, wind speeds will not be high enough to produce widespread Red Flag conditions. High dispersion indices will be possible each afternoon this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 73 87 72 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 89 70 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 92 69 92 68 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 85 70 85 69 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 90 65 88 65 / 0 0 10 10 SPG 87 75 86 74 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.