textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Critical RH values across the region the next few days.
- Above average temperatures continue through the week.
- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026
If you have enjoyed the warm, dry conditions lately, you're in luck because they are expected to continue into the weekend. High pressure continues to dominate the pattern. Friday morning will be slightly cool with northern areas in the upper 50s. However, by the afternoon, the 90s will return throughout the area. Luckily, humidity levels will remain lower tomorrow and Saturday before increasing Sunday as a cold front approaches. The cold front moving through Sunday into Monday will bring a very slight chance of showers, mainly for inland areas. Otherwise, the slightly cooler air ushered in behind the front will drop temperatures back to to near normal, though still slightly above.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the period.
MARINE
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Quiet marine conditions continue into the weekend as high pressure hangs over the area and winds remain light. However, Sunday a cold front will approach the area Sunday night before moving through Monday. Following the front, as high pressure builds in from the north, the pressure gradient will tighten and winds and seas will increase. Small Craft Advisory will be likely beginning Monday morning through middle of the next week before winds begin to diminish.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Conditions remain dry and warm into the weekend. RH values in some areas will drop below critical levels today and tomorrow, but winds will remain below 15mph. Moisture begins to increase Sunday ahead of a cold front that will move through Monday, bringing a very slight chance of showers as it does.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 65 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 63 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 65 86 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 57 90 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 71 88 73 88 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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