textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the upcoming week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
A rather wet summertime pattern is setting up for much of the upcoming week as deep moisture, precipitable water >= 2 inches, with a southeasterly flow holds across the region. This will lead to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day moving out into the gulf at night. Highest rain chances should be along the coastal counties each day where the sea breeze collision occurs. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main issue if storms line up over an area leading to flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas. Otherwise, no widespread severe weather is expected, but some of the storms could become rather strong and produce gusty winds up to 50 mph, with an isolated severe wind gust up to 60 mph not out of the question.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
MVFR/occasional IFR conditions are expected in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. East to southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots will shift to onshore with the bay/sea breezes at TPA, PIE and SRQ early this afternoon and then west to northwest during mid to late afternoon. Light east to southeast winds will return later this evening into Sunday morning. Gusty erratic winds will be possible in and near any convection.
MARINE
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
High pressure will hold over the waters through the upcoming week with relatively light winds and seas. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous mainly evening and overnight showers and thunderstorms which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
No fire weather hazards are expected. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels through the period. Numerous to widespread mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the upcoming week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 91 77 91 / 60 70 50 80 FMY 77 93 76 93 / 30 80 30 90 GIF 76 93 76 92 / 30 60 30 80 SRQ 76 93 75 92 / 60 70 50 80 BKV 73 93 73 92 / 50 70 40 80 SPG 78 91 77 90 / 60 70 50 80
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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