textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the week. - Below normal rain chances and coverage continue into Tuesday, then moisture increases from north to south with rain chances closer to normal mid to late week.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Dry conditions should continue through the night across most of the region. However, there could be a few showers and/or thunderstorms over the northern coastal waters moving into the Nature Coast toward morning as deeper moisture, precipitable water around 2 inches, drifts south. The west to northwest flow will continue and therefore this deeper moisture should move east southeast into the central Florida peninsula by midday and then along the Florida east coast by late afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in this area of deeper moisture to move across the Nature Coast south to around the I-4 corridor during the morning into early afternoon hours then the convection should become more numerous over the eastern half of the Florida peninsula during the mid-late afternoon. Current forecast looks on track with no updates needed at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue overnight into early Tuesday morning. Then as deeper moisture moves south into central Florida scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late morning into the mid- afternoon around the Tampa Bay TAF sites and LAL which could cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions. Further south the drier air should hold on with VFR conditions prevailing. West winds will diminish to around 5 knots this evening then increase to 8 to 12 knots with some higher gusts by midday Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Stacked ridging remains in place across the Deep South and FL Peninsula through mid week as dry air and subsidence aloft keeps PoPs well below normal for mid August areawide. Lack of cloud cover and rain cooled air will allow daytime temps to climb quickly with near record temps and very high and dangerous heat index values through mid-week.

U/L ridging gradually breaks down over the E U.S. and shifts west over into mid week, with the surface ridge axis shifting south of area in response to a frontal boundary sinking into the SE U.S. Onshore boundary layer flow continues through the remainder of the week while moisture gradually increases from north to south, particularly by mid week and beyond. Rain chances increase in response, mainly across north and central areas on Tuesday, then expand to area wide coverage on Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Shower and storm timing will favor coastal areas overnight through early morning before spreading inland late morning through the afternoon while increasing in areal coverage. Cloud cover and shower/storm coverage will favor a slight decrease in afternoon highs, around 90 along the immediate coast and lower/mid 90s further inland. Humid and muggy conditions will persist along with marginal heat advisory conditions.

MARINE

Westerly flow to increase through mid week as high pressure holds south of the waters with occasionally gusty winds and moderately choppy seas. Moisture increases with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected mid to late week, most likely during the late night and morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

The hot and humid conditions continue through mid week as rain chances gradually increase into mid week with activity favoring coastal areas during the morning before spreading to interior areas in the afternoon. Minimal fire weather hazards expected as minimum relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 94 82 92 / 0 20 50 60 FMY 77 96 79 95 / 0 10 10 50 GIF 77 98 79 95 / 10 30 30 70 SRQ 79 93 80 93 / 0 10 30 40 BKV 78 94 78 93 / 0 30 50 70 SPG 81 93 82 92 / 0 10 40 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.