textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon, especially along SWFL coast.

- Sunny, warm and dry conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A weak cold front draped across central Florida will gradually drift south as the day continues. Extra moisture associated with the front will lead to increased rain chances later this afternoon into the early evening, especially across SWFL where sea breeze interactions will provide extra lift. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Dry air moves in behind the front as high pressure builds back in, limiting rain chances through mid week. A little extra moisture moves in along the Nature Coast Thursday, bringing a slight chance of showers. Otherwise, a more significant chance for showers arrives over the weekend as a stronger cold front moves through the area. Models currently differ on timing and duration, but overall, much needed rain is expected sometime during the weekend possibly into Monday next week. With limited rain chances, and high pressure dominating, temperatures through the end of the week will run above normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the period. Brief periods of gusty easterly winds will subside overnight. A few showers and storms are possible, especially for SWFL later this afternoon/early evening.

MARINE

Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Mostly quiet marine conditions expected through the week. A weak cold front currently draped over central FL is bringing a little extra moisture and gusty winds. A few showers and storms could be possible over coastal waters this evening, especially near SWFL. A more significant cold front is expected to move over the waters this weekend, bringing an increase chance of shower and storms and increased winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

High pressure moves over the area following a weak cold front pushing through today. Dry air will filter in tomorrow, with RH values dropping near critical levels through the week. Winds are expected to remain below 15 mph. Moisture increases as the weekend approaches and a more significant cold front moves through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 90 70 88 / 10 0 0 0 FMY 68 91 68 89 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 66 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 66 90 68 86 / 20 0 0 0 BKV 60 91 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 73 90 73 86 / 20 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.