textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold conditions are forecast tonight. An Extreme Cold Warning and a Freeze Warning are in effect for much of west central and southwest Florida through Sunday morning.

- Dangerous marine conditions are ongoing. A Gale Warning is in effect for all coastal waters through this morning, and there is a high risk of strong rip currents and hazardous surf at area beaches through Sunday.

- Strong winds with gusts of 30 MPH to 45 MPH will continue through the remainder of the night, with strongest winds near and along the coast. Winds could blow unsecured objects and cause some tree limbs to be blown down.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 Overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Canadian high pressure and an associated arctic airmass is currently building over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of a rapidly deepening area of low pressure off the Carolina coast. A large area of cold air strato-cu over the eastern Gulf is advecting locally onshore which will continue through the remainder of the night. Although Doppler radar does not indicate any precipitation ATTM, potential remains for very light snow flurries for the next several hours at locations that have dropped below approximately 38 degrees as the convergent bands continue to move onshore, with a rather concentrated area of cloudiness currently located over Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota counties. Very unstable boundary layer remains in place as relative core of the cold air aloft is currently over the region. POPs in the forecast tonight remain zero, however that is only indicative that measurable precipitation is not expected. An Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather Advisory remain in effect through the early morning hours as temperatures will drop into the lower 20s north and mid 20s over the interior. Wind chills will be in the upper single digits around sunrise north and 10 to 20 degrees over the interior...and mid to upper 20s near the coast.

As the area of low pressure off the Carolina coast moves northeast away from the forecast area today, the gradient across the region will weaken a bit with winds coming down, but remaining rather gusty from the northwest. Skies will become mostly clear...with possibly some scattered residual cold air strato-cu along the coast. High temperatures will only climb into the mid to upper 40s north and central, and the lower 50s south. The gusty northwest winds will make it feel even colder.

Winds will subside Sunday night setting up favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling across west central and southwest Florida. A freeze warning and cold weather advisory is in effect for all of west central and southwest Florida with the exception of Pinellas county. Low temperatures again will drop into the lower 20s north...the mid to upper 20s central, and around 30 in the coastal zones south of Tampa. Winds will be relatively light creating wind chills about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature. This will bring wind chills over the interior very close to extreme cold warning criteria as they will be in the 21 to 23 range...with warning criteria being 20 or less.

Looking at overall hazards that persist:

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions with a Gale Warning in effect through this morning. A few gusts to storm force will be possible. Although winds will begin to subside on Sunday, they will remain at advisory levels...and even though winds will drop below advisory levels Sunday night, advisory level hazardous seas will persist as it will take time for seas to subside.

- A wind advisory is in effect for west central and southwest Florida through early this morning for wind gusts of 35 to 45 MPH, with the highest gusts near and along the coast. - A very rare Extreme Cold Warning along with a freeze warning is in effect for most counties across west central and southwest Florida through early this morning with the exception of Pinellas, coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Sarasota, Coastal Charlotte counties. Widespread frost will also be possible across inland areas.

- A cold weather advisory is in effect for all of west central and southwest Florida Sunday night. A Freeze Warning is also in effect for all counties with the exception of Pinellas county. Widespread frost will again be possible, but may also occur closer to the coast.

- Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals through Sunday night. Could see some record low temperatures set this morning...a number of low max temperature records set today...and a few record low temperatures again Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents and high surf are expected to persist through today...although surf may begin to subside a bit this afternoon.

- The strong northwest winds may create water levels along the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county of about 1 foot above a astronomical normal tide levels through the remainder of the night.

The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but it will still be another cold day across the region with high temperatures from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again will be likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the nature coast, with around freezing temperatures across the interior...and upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. Areas of frost will likely develop late Monday night through the early Tuesday morning.

The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear skies each day. A cold front will push across the forecast area late Wednesday and Wednesday night which will bring the next chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm to the area. Drier cooler air will advect across the region in the wake of the front Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures will drop back down to about 10 degrees below climatic normals, with the potential for freezing temperatures across the nature coast Thursday night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 While there remains a very low probability for some snow flurries at terminals through 10Z to 11Z, the probability has decreased enough to omit any mention of snow in the TAFs for this cycle. The main aviation impact is the continued gusty winds. Sites will continue to gust generally anywhere from 20 to 30 kts overnight, gradually subsiding through the day. Most of the gusty winds should be gone by 0Z Monday. However, there will be the potential for frost to develop on aircraft wings on both Monday and Tuesday mornings before temperatures warm up enough for this to no longer be a factor.

MARINE

Issued at 131 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 Gale warning currently in effect with very hazardous marine conditions across the waters. Winds and seas will begin come down a bit today with advisory level winds and hazardous seas persisting. Winds will drop below advisory levels Sunday night but hazardous seas will likely continue. Seas should subside on Monday. High pressure will hold over the waters through mid week. A cold front will push across the waters Wednesday night with cautionary winds likely developing in the wake of the front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 131 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 Much drier air is currently advecting across west central and southwest Florida and will hold over the region for the next several days. Minimum relative humidity values today will drop below critical levels along with near critical winds across the nature coast and interior. However, the Significant Fire Potential indicates little or no risk. Although elevated fire weather conditions will exist today, an RFW will not be needed. The dry air will hold over the region on Monday, however winds will be rather light and the Significant Fire Potential will likely remain at the little or no risk level.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 47 34 56 40 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 53 33 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 47 29 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 50 34 57 38 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 46 21 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 49 40 57 45 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto- Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee- Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Inland Lee-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.