textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 814 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorms through the weekend, becoming numerous to widespread most of next week.

- Small Craft should Exercise Caution with gusty overnight winds and choppy seas over the eastern Gulf waters tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The southerly flow we have seen over the last couple of days will continue. This flow has helped to bring tropical moisture over the state with the PW on this morning sounding at 2.34. To put this in perceptive of how moist it is for this time of year. The morning sounding actually set the record for the 12z launch on Oct 2nd which was 2.30. This will bring scattered showers and storms into the forecast through the afternoon and evening hours. Models are keeping this trend in place through the weekend.

As we head into early next week a cold front will stall across north Florida. This amazingly will increase our PWs even more. If models are right we could be approaching 2.5 PW early next week. This will lead to cloudy skies and widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms. This front looks to go no where through Wednesday which will keep the cloudy and wet conditions in place. Current forecast is keeping rainfall totals between 1-3 inches from Monday to Wednesday. However, reasonable worse case scenario (10% chance) is showing totals as high as 4 to 8 inches so the forecast will have to be monitored closely.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Last of the VCTS to move over the area thru around 02Z with VFR conditions overnight with SCT-BKN mid to upper clouds shield and light ESE flow. SAT aft 18Z daytime heating and southerly flow to again produce afternoon VCTS with brief MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys along with gusty winds possible.

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Winds will continue to be out of the south and southeast through the weekend. We will also continue to see the nightly surges where winds increase to 15 to 20 knots before calming down to around 10 knots each afternoon. The southerly winds will continue to bring a lot of moisture up from the caribbean resulting in scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf. Shower chances will remain for early next week however we should stop seeing the nightly surge of winds keeping them around 10 to 15 knots through Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Deeper layer moisture across the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the middle part of the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 87 76 88 / 60 60 40 50 FMY 77 90 76 90 / 20 60 30 70 GIF 75 89 75 91 / 40 70 30 60 SRQ 75 89 75 89 / 50 60 40 50 BKV 73 89 73 91 / 60 60 40 60 SPG 77 87 77 88 / 60 60 40 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.