textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog and some low clouds are expected late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

- The next cold front approaches and moves through the area late Tuesday/Tuesday night bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

- Some cooler drier air overspreads the region for midweek, then temperatures and humidity quickly moderate late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Main weather story continues to be the frontal boundary moving south over Florida tomorrow/tomorrow night. A line of showers and possible storms will move through ahead of the front tomorrow, with highest chances for showers being mainly north of I4. Some storms that are able to develop could have strong, gusty winds. Currently a few isolated showers have developed over the nature coast and inland, where the frontal boundary is stalled. If surface winds subside overnight, some early morning patchy fog will also be possible over the area.

Temperatures will drop a few degrees behind the front as high pressure builds in bringing more northerly winds. Drier air will also move in, making conditions more comfortable. Cooler temperatures quickly begin to moderate back towards the low to mid 80s as the weekend approaches. However, another frontal boundary is expected to move through this weekend. Models are currently in disagreement about timing and duration for this frontal line. So, we will continue to monitor the situation as it gets closer.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the afternoon. Some vicinity patchy fog is possible early tomorrow morning as long as the winds diminish overnight. Otherwise, ceilings could drop below VFR as showers and possible storms move through ahead of a frontal boundary beginning around 14-15Z. Gusty SW winds expected tomorrow afternoon, shifting more northwesterly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 110 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as a frontal line pushes south over Florida. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front. Gusty S/SW winds will shift more N/NW into Wednesday. Though winds will increase Tuesday, they should remain just below cautionary levels. Winds remain around 10-15kts through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Fire weather concerns remain limited as a frontal boundary moves over Florida brining extra moisture. Dew points decrease behind the front but should remain above criteria levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 80 62 73 / 20 50 0 0 FMY 69 81 65 79 / 10 20 0 0 GIF 66 83 60 75 / 10 40 0 0 SRQ 68 80 62 75 / 10 40 0 0 BKV 62 81 53 72 / 30 50 0 0 SPG 70 78 64 72 / 20 50 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.