textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 800 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

- Next rain chance comes late Sunday into Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

No change to existing forecast or reasoning. Dry conditions hold through tonight and most of Sunday before a few showers move into the area as early as late Sunday evening but more likely overnight Sunday into early Monday with a passing cold front. Warmer Sunday afternoon with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Broad low pressure is centered aloft over the central U.S. this afternoon while surface high pressure remains in control over the southeast. This has kept the weather quite beautiful today, with sunny skies and highs in the 70s area-wide with low dew points. For Sunday into Monday, the low pressure aloft will dig southward, with a weak surface low eventually forming off the southeast coast. This will bring a pretty weak frontal boundary across Florida late tomorrow night into Monday, with just a few accompanying showers as moisture will increase just enough, though most areas will remain dry. After increasing slightly for Sunday ahead of the boundary, temperatures will drop back down a couple of degrees for Monday behind it. We will then see a warming trend starting Tuesday, with high pressure dominating and highs getting back near normal values and then slightly above normal late in the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR expected through the period. Slight chance of a shower developing late evening, however given timing and coverage uncertainty have elected to exclude mention this cycle. Winds light overnight, turning onshore and increasing in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Northeast winds will remain over the waters through Sunday before a weak frontal boundary moves through the region Sunday night into Monday. This boundary will bring a few showers, but rain chances aren't much higher than 20% or so. Conditions will remain below headlines until early Monday morning into Tuesday, when winds increase to exercise caution/advisory levels before decreasing again for the latter part of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 A weak cold front will move through the region tomorrow night into Monday, bringing a chance for a few showers, but overall, no fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 57 79 62 75 / 0 20 20 20 FMY 60 82 64 80 / 0 10 20 10 GIF 55 80 60 75 / 0 10 20 20 SRQ 58 79 62 76 / 0 20 20 10 BKV 48 78 52 73 / 0 20 20 20 SPG 61 76 64 73 / 0 20 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.