textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions continue this afternoon, with near record high temperatures and heat index values of up to 110.

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon, with a few strong or damaging storms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Currently at the surface, Atlantic high pressure continues to ridge across northern Florida, favoring southeast and east winds. The dry air mass fueled by the Saharan Air Layer continues to linger over the northern half of Florida, but deep moisture will begin to replenish from the south today, allowing for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop this afternoon from around Interstate 4 south, with only isolated convection expected to the north. With warm surface temperatures and drier air aloft, a few strong or severe storms can be expected this afternoon under favorable instability. Otherwise, the heat is forecast to continue, with max temperatures this afternoon expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, potentially setting records in a few locations. Combined with dew points in the 70s, this will lead to heat index values reaching 108 or higher in many locations this afternoon, and a heat advisory has been issued for all of West Central and Southwest Florida again today from 11AM-7PM.

Through the weekend, max temperatures will moderate slightly as moisture returns, but will still remain a couple degrees above normal, generally topping out in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Dry Saharan air will work back into southwest Florida Sunday through the first half of the week, keeping rain coverage in the isolated to scattered range each day, with the highest rain chances generally over the northern half of the forecast area where moisture will be more favorable.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to hold through the morning. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening, with the highest storm chances generally over southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD.

MARINE

Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Atlantic high pressure ridging into the northeastern Gulf will setup southeasterly flow today and Saturday, turning onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Wind speeds will generally remain less than headline criteria, although afternoon thunderstorms will create locally higher winds and rough seas. The ridge will briefly shift south Sunday, leading to a more southwesterly flow pattern, before lifting back north Monday and Tuesday, allowing for a return of east winds to the southern waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Drier air will remain in place today from around Interstate 4 north, with limited rain chances and relative humidity percentages dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s. However, moisture increasing from the south will bring higher rain chances and humidity to areas south of Interstate 4. Deeper moisture will continue to spread north on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 97 80 94 82 / 30 50 40 10 FMY 97 77 95 78 / 70 30 30 10 GIF 98 76 97 77 / 30 30 50 20 SRQ 96 78 94 80 / 50 50 30 10 BKV 99 75 97 76 / 20 40 40 20 SPG 96 80 94 82 / 40 50 30 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.