textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
- Above normal temps with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees in the afternoons continue through the week. - Onshore flow, with the best shower and storm chances expected for inland areas through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 The surface ridge axis has shifted southward today, with light westerly flow across the region and scattered showers and storms that will continue to slowly more inland through the rest of the afternoon and evening. A similar setup is forecast through the weekend, with onshore flow and abundant moisture in place. Some relatively drier air moves over the region for early next week, helping to decrease PoPs a bit, but the overall onshore pattern continues, so the best rain chances remain over inland areas.
By Tuesday into Wednesday, a frontal boundary moves over north Florida, increasing rain chances across the northern part of the forecast area while the rest of the region stays within west flow. The rest of next week features more of the same.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of shower and thunderstorm activity through the rest of the evening. A quiet overnight is expected, then a similar pattern is forecast for tomorrow.
MARINE
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 High pressure will prevail with light west winds expected through the next several days. The best rain chances will be over land, but there could be a few showers or storms over the waters mainly during the overnight and early morning hours each day. No headlines are expected.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative humidity values remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 20 FMY 76 91 77 91 / 20 40 20 50 GIF 75 93 76 93 / 40 50 30 60 SRQ 78 91 78 91 / 10 20 10 20 BKV 75 93 76 92 / 10 20 10 10 SPG 79 92 80 91 / 10 10 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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