textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- The rather wet pattern will continue through the weekend and into early next week, with numerous thunderstorms developing each day. Gusty winds and localized flooding will be possible with the strongest storms.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist with highs in the lower 90s and the humidity making it will feel more like 100 to 105 degrees each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Our Saturday will look very similiar to Friday with southerly wind flow and PWs above 2 inches. This will keep most of the shower activity east of 75 with development in the late afternoon and evening hours.

As we head into Sunday and Monday ridging will shift closer to the state bringing light flow to the area. This regime results in slow moving storms where outflows are the main focus for redevelopment. This regime also brings higher chances for localize flooding as storms tend to "sit" over an area.

As we head into Tuesday an upper level low will start to approach the state as high pressure moves away. This will bring our winds easterly again and result in shower activity closer to the coast in the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Wednesday this upper level low will be be getting closer to the state. Out ahead of it we will see some drier air especially north of I-4 where PW could drop below 1.5. Winds will also increase as sustained winds could reach around 15 knots and gusts close to 30. Moisture will start to return on Thursday as the upper level low pushes through the state. Winds will calm down slightly to around 10 knots with gust around 20 knots. Shower chances north of I-4 will start to return.

By Friday the upper level low will push into the Gulf as the flow switching southerly once again. At the surface winds will come back down to normal levels as moisture remains high. This will bring us back us right back to the same conditions we saw yesterday with storms mainly east of 75.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Southerly flow with high PW will once again bring scatted shower and storms to the state. Coastal site like PIE and SRQ will see higher chances in the early afternoon while most other sites will have the best chance in the late afternoon and evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Winds will remain light for the weekend and into our Monday with scattered storms chances. As we head into our Tuesday an upper level in the Atlantic will start to approach the state. This will increase the winds out of the east 5 to 10 knots. As this upper level low continues to approach the area on Wednesday we will see winds quickly increasing to 20 to 25 knots by the afternoon. These winds will remain elevated through Thursday as the upper level low pushes through the state.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Deeper layer moisture will remain over the state which will bring scattered showers and storms over the next 5 days. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 78 89 78 / 40 20 50 10 FMY 91 77 90 76 / 60 30 70 20 GIF 93 75 92 75 / 60 30 60 20 SRQ 91 77 91 77 / 40 20 50 30 BKV 92 74 91 74 / 40 10 50 10 SPG 90 79 89 79 / 40 20 50 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.