textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures with widespread heat index values of 102 to 107 degrees this afternoon through the weekend.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms today through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Currently at the surface, Atlantic ridging is continuing to extend across northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf, setting up light easterly flow today. The easterly flow will advect deep tropical moisture into the southern half of the Florida Peninsula today, while a drier airmass is forecast to remain in place over the northern half of the area. As a result, rain coverage is expected to increase this afternoon for areas south of Interstate 4, with scattered to numerous storms developing. Meanwhile, areas along the Interstate 4 corridor and to the north should only see isolated storm coverage at the most this afternoon. The surface ridge will begin to shift southeast on Saturday, resulting in a more southeasterly flow pattern. This will allow moisture and rain chances to continue to spread northward, although the highest rain chances will generally be over the interior as the west coast sea breeze pushes inland. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to run above normal today and Saturday, with highs topping out in the mid 90s with heat index values in the mid 100s.

The surface ridge will continue to shift east Sunday as a front stalls out north of Florida, resulting in a more westerly flow pattern across the forecast area Sunday and into next week. This pattern will feature showers and a few storms developing over the eastern Gulf during the late night hours and shifting onshore at times through the morning. The convection will then continue to build inland with the highest storm chances over the interior each afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 828 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Drier air across West Central Florida today will bring in lower storm chances resulting in keeping them out of our TAFs. However, there will be enough moisture in SW Florida to produce evening storms with TEMPO for thunderstorms for PGD, FMY, and RSW. Winds outside of thunderstorm should generally stay below 10 knots with VFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 309 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

High pressure ridging north of the waters today and Saturday will favor easterly flow, turning onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Wind speeds will generally remain less than headline criteria, although afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will produce locally higher winds. The ridge will shift east by Sunday, setting up a westerly flow pattern through the first half of next week. This pattern will favor showers and storms developing over the eastern Gulf during the late night and early morning hours and shifting onshore and into the interior through the rest of the morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 309 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Moisture will increase from the south today, with scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast for areas south of Interstate 4. However, drier air to the north will keep rain chances limited and allow relative humidity percentages to drop into the low 40s this afternoon in a few spots. Moisture will continue to spread north on Saturday, allowing humidity and rain chances to increase across the northern half of the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 95 79 93 82 / 10 20 20 10 FMY 94 77 93 79 / 70 30 30 20 GIF 96 76 96 78 / 20 10 40 20 SRQ 96 77 93 80 / 40 30 20 10 BKV 97 74 95 78 / 10 10 10 20 SPG 95 79 92 82 / 20 30 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.