textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions continue with near record high temperatures and heat index values of up to 105 and then higher for midweek.

- Decreasing rain chances during the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 834 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

While some high-level clouds stream in across the area, a pocket of drier remains present in the mid-levels. This has led to a quiet start across the peninsula today, and favors continued low rain chances from the Tampa Bay area southward along and west of I-75 especially. There is some deeper moisture across the northern half of the Florida peninsula, and colliding boundaries over the interior this afternoon also favor at least scattered thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and into the evening.

The other weather impact will continue to be the heat. Warm, humid conditions will continue. However, enough cloud cover should remain today to keep conditions just below Heat Advisory criteria. Nevertheless, continue to practice good heat safety.

Overall, the forecast remains on track with no additional changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The big factor for most of the work week will be the Saharan Dust located over the area. This dust will help to keep shower chances at a minimum for much of the week. However a weak frontal boundary in North Florida will bring scattered showers and storms across the Nature Coast both Monday and Tuesday. Some hi res models are starting to show these storms drifting a little farther south so added some isolated storm chances for area north of I-4. Highs should remain in the mid 90's.

As we head into our Wednesday and Thursday the frontal boundary will be gone but the Saharan Dust will still be around. This will bring dry conditions for all of us. These two days should also be the hottest we see all week thanks to the extra sunshine and slightly drier conditions. Highs inland will reach the upper 90's.

The Saharan Dust will start to dissipate by Friday and the weekend as shower chances slowly return. However, shower chances will remain on the lower end with only a 30 to 40 PoP each day. &&

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 834 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

With a westerly flow, much of the thunderstorm activity should occur north and east of terminals. However, there is still a 30% chance for a thunderstorm to impact TPA and PIE during the afternoon hours, and a 50% to 60% chance at KLAL. With some drier air aloft, there is a greater threat for microbursts if thunderstorms do form. While a similar setup is anticipated tomorrow, the overall potential for impacts is lower with additional dry air moving into the area. This will continue through at least mid week. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR will prevail.

MARINE

Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The weather will remain pretty quiet through next Thursday with winds staying between 5 to 10 knots with minimal shower chances each day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Our main concern through Friday will be the dry and hot conditions we will see thanks to the Saharan Dust. Scattered showers will be possible both Monday and Tuesday mainly north of I-4.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 81 94 81 / 30 10 20 10 FMY 96 78 97 78 / 10 20 10 10 GIF 96 75 97 76 / 40 10 30 10 SRQ 94 79 94 80 / 20 10 10 10 BKV 93 75 94 75 / 30 20 30 10 SPG 93 81 94 82 / 20 10 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.