textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 802 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Higher humidity along with higher rain and storm chances return remainder of the week and into the weekend.

- Increasing winds and building seas over the eastern Gulf waters on Thursday and Friday. Small Craft should Exercise Caution.

UPDATE

Issued at 802 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Showers and a few storms have been streaming across the Gulf waters this morning. The office sounding showed a fairly stable with a defined cap. Moisture is near 2 inches which will support higher showers and storm coverage this afternoon. South to southeasterly winds are anticipated and this will bring the highest chances to SWFL, but most locations will have at least some convection in the vicinity. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90.

No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Weak troughing over the area is continuing to keep south-southeast winds over the area, which is helping pump in increasing moisture into west central and southwest Florida. The 00Z TBW sounding is showing this pronounced increase with a PWAT of 1.88 inches. North of Florida, broad surface high pressure is located near West Virginia and ridges southwest through Mississippi. This will bring back a predominant east through southeast wind flow over the Florida peninsula. PWAT values will be up to 1.7 - 2.1 inches across most of west central and southwest Florida. This will equate to scattered showers and isolated storms across the region on Wednesday afternoon.

By Thursday morning, the troughing fills, while the surface high has moved off the Carolina coastline and continues to ridge west- southwestward over Florida and into the eastern Gulf. PWAT values starting on Thursday afternoon will be up to 2+ inches across the Florida peninsula. This pattern will hold through the end of the week and into the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected each afternoon during that time period.

By Sunday afternoon, high pressure east of Florida continues to ridge westward over the area. A little farther to the west, an area of low pressure and frontal boundary develops near the LA/MS coastline. The predominant south-southeast winds that have been over the area will shift more southwesterly on Monday afternoon as that system moves through the area late Monday into Tuesday. Continued high rain chances with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected for the first half of next week as this front becomes stationary over north central Florida.

With the increasing moisture and rain chances through the period, temperatures and humidity will also be on the rise. Overnight lows this morning and Thursday morning will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, then low to mid 70s for the remainder of the forecast period. Near seasonal daytime highs expected with upper 80s to low 90s each day through the end of the week and into the weekend. A slight cool down is expected next Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 802 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions prevail through midday. There is a non-zero chance of showers this morning, mainly over SWFL terminals. Going into the afternoon, intermittent MVFR/IFR cigs and vis are possible as rain chances increase. South to southeasterly winds prevail during this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 74 89 75 / 40 30 60 30 FMY 88 74 88 75 / 50 40 70 30 GIF 90 72 90 74 / 40 30 50 10 SRQ 88 73 89 74 / 40 30 70 40 BKV 90 68 91 71 / 40 30 60 20 SPG 87 74 88 76 / 40 30 70 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.