textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Isolated to numerous showers and storms will continue to develop today while drier air to the north will keep thunderstorm chances minimal.

- Gusty east to northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

A few showers remain over interior areas and over the water, however, most of the activity has diminished. This trend should continue over the next hour two. Overnight lows will drop into the low 70s, especially north of the I-4 corridor. Areas south remain in the mid to upper 70s mainly near the coast. Breezy winds decrease some tonight, but will increase shortly after sunrise and stay gusty most of the day across the CWA. Gusty winds will also create dangerous maritime conditions for small crafts through Thursday evening. Afternoon highs remain near 90 degrees, while drier air limits convection even further on Thursday. There might be enough moisture across SWFL areas and this is where rain chances will be the highest (mostly 30-40%).

Otherwise, no changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Relatively dry airmass remains over the area through the period. This will keep rain chances low in most locations. There should still be enough moisture available across SWFL terminals to support scattered showers and maybe a storm or two during the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 75 89 74 / 20 0 10 0 FMY 89 76 89 74 / 60 20 40 10 GIF 89 74 89 73 / 40 0 10 10 SRQ 90 75 91 74 / 40 0 10 0 BKV 90 72 89 70 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 90 76 90 76 / 30 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.