textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Diminishing showers this evening, then partly cloudy overnight with patchy mist or fog potentially developing late. - Slightly cooler conditions coming over the weekend and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 710 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

No changes planned for the evening update. Surface high pressure centered over the W Atlantic continues to ridge W/SW into the local area while gradually retreating eastward in advance of a cold front slowly making progress into the E U.S. A few very widely scattered showers continue across the area this evening and will diminish through the evening. Partly cloudy with light winds overnight, with low clouds and potentially areas of mist or patchy fog developing late tonight into Thursday morning. Overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Southerly flow will remain in place for one more day with some scattered showers expected mainly near the coast this afternoon and evening.

As we head into Thursday and Friday ridging will start to shift overhead as our upper level flow turns more northerly. This will dry us out and keep temperatures slightly above average with lows in the upper 60's and highs in the mid 80's.

Saturday looks to be very similiar to our Thursday and Friday. However, by Sunday morning we will see our next cold front push through the area. This front will not bring a lot of shower activity but will bring some cooler air. Models right now showing lows in the low 60's with highs in the mid to upper 70's for next Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Mainly VFR through the period, with a period of MVFR/LCL IFR cig/vsby potential late overnight through daybreak on Thursday. A few early evening showers continue near TPA/PIE/SRQ but should diminish by around 01Z. Light/variable winds overnight through early morning increase out of the E/SE before turning onshore for coastal terminals in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 213 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Winds will generally stay below 10 knots through the rest of our work week as ridging moves overhead. As we head into the weekend a cold front will start to push through the state shifting winds northerly around 10 to 15 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 213 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

We will see some scattered showers across the area today before drying out through for the end of our work week and weekend. No major fire weather concerns through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 71 85 71 84 / 30 10 10 0 FMY 72 86 71 85 / 10 10 0 0 GIF 70 87 69 87 / 10 0 0 10 SRQ 71 84 71 83 / 10 10 0 0 BKV 69 87 68 86 / 30 20 20 0 SPG 72 81 72 80 / 20 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.