textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Very limited rain chances area wide today, with chances returning on Tuesday across southern locations.

- Summer time convective pattern returns by latter half of week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

This was the last morning of widespread 60's as we slowly transition back into a more summertime pattern.On Tuesday an upper level trough will push through South Florida. As it does so we could see some showers and storms, even as early as the morning hours, across the coastal areas south of I-4. The rest of us should remain dry on Tuesday but the humidity will be a little higher with lows around 70 degrees. Wednesday will be our transition day as the upper level troughing that has helped bring us the drier and cooler air will finally get cut off from the flow. As it does so high pressure will be working its way back in. This means scattered showers and storms will return but should remain a little on the lower end thanks to PW still around 1.75.

By Thursday and Friday high pressure over the Atlantic will be our domination weather influence. THis will bring east to southeasterly winds along with PWs back above 2 inches. This will fully bring back our summer time convection. The southeasterly flow should bring the highest totals inland in the afternoon and along the west coast in the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Saturday the ridge will start to shift more overhead. This could allow for a more lighter flow regime. If we see the lighter flow we will continue to see scattered showers and storms but they will be more slow moving which results in some minor urban flooding. On Sunday the upper level ridge starts to shift into the Gulf. Models right now showing a small decrease in PW when that happens. This shouldn't bring a big change into the forecast but could bring shower chances down slightly.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions through the period with winds generally below 10 knots. A weak upper level trough will push through tomorrow morning across SW Florida. This will allow for a few showers and storms to develop around FMY and RSW starting at 12z.

MARINE

Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Winds will remain around 5 to 10 knots out of the south and southeast through Wednesday. High pressure in the Atlantic will start to build on Thursday and Friday. this will increase our winds to 15 to 20 knots out of the southeast with SCEC possible. We will see some showers in the Gulf tomorrow morning and afternoon mainly south of Pinellas coastline. Scattered showers and storms will continue in the forecast for everyone on Wednesday and through the rest of the week as moisture returns.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The drier air we saw during the weekend will slowly push away as southerly flow bring moisture back into the forecast. We will see a more typical summer time pattern with afternoon and evening storms starting on Wednesday through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 73 88 73 / 0 0 20 20 FMY 88 72 87 72 / 0 10 50 50 GIF 90 70 90 72 / 0 0 20 10 SRQ 87 72 87 72 / 0 0 30 50 BKV 87 69 89 69 / 10 10 20 10 SPG 86 75 87 74 / 0 10 30 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.