textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 758 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns with storms that do form.

- Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters.

UPDATE

Issued at 758 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Most of the showers and storms have dissipated. Other than a few slow moving storms that stalled over some areas across SWFL and the interior, convection remained unimpresive. Overnight conditions should be calm with rain chances increasing near the coast early as light westerly winds are anticipated. Chances gradually increasing into the afternoon and move inland. Afternoon highs will climb up into the 90s with triple digit heat indices. Light winds will once again support ponding of water and minor flooding in areas with poor drainage.

No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 758 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated overnight with light and variable winds in place. Rain chances are forecast to increase near the coast with a none zero chance earlier in the day, but confidence is not high enough to add it to the TAFs. Storms should migrate from the shore Into near terminals by late morning and into the afternoon. Most of the convection should diminish by the early evening hours. Intermittent MVFR/IFR cigs and vis possible near storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 91 77 91 / 10 50 30 80 FMY 76 92 77 92 / 20 60 40 80 GIF 75 94 76 92 / 20 50 30 80 SRQ 77 92 76 93 / 10 40 30 80 BKV 74 93 74 93 / 10 50 30 70 SPG 79 91 78 92 / 10 40 30 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.