textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the morning hours, especially this weekend.
- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.
UPDATE
Issued at 751 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026
A pocket of drier air moving west across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula today kept rain coverage near zero north of Interstate 4 this afternoon. More favorable moisture over southwest Florida allowed for scattered thunderstorms to develop across the southern half of the forecast area, with isolated storms lingering early this evening expected to gradually die out over the next couple of hours.
The forecast looks on track with moisture increasing Friday through the holiday weekend. No significant changes planned for the evening update.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 751 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026
Lingering thunderstorms will continue to cause brief periods of flight category disruptions through around 02-03z this evening, especially around KRSW and KFMY. Storms will then dissipate, with mainly VFR and rain free conditions expected to hold through the rest of the overnight period. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop again Friday afternoon beginning around 17-19z, with rain chances continuing through the rest of the afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the next several days, with no headlines expected. The only concern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms that could produce locally gusty winds and rough seas. Best chances are tonight and Friday morning and during the morning hours for the weekend.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Abundant moisture will keep relative humidity values above critical levels with sustained 20 foot winds less than 15 mph. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, which will cause gusty and erratic winds, otherwise there are no other significant fire weather concerns.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 92 80 91 / 20 50 40 70 FMY 77 92 78 92 / 40 50 30 70 GIF 75 94 76 93 / 20 60 30 90 SRQ 77 92 78 91 / 40 50 50 60 BKV 72 95 74 93 / 10 40 40 70 SPG 79 92 80 91 / 30 40 50 60
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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