textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions will develop across the coastal waters over the weekend.

- Near normal temperatures and dry conditions expected the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Mid/upper-level troughing will continue across the eastern part of the country and Florida with ridging to our west while surface high pressure remains parked to our north and a remnant frontal boundary lingers south of the state. This setup has kept northeast winds in place with cooler and drier conditions across the local area.

Over the next few days, a cutoff low will form over the southeastern Gulf before opening up and lifting northeast as ridging builds back in. At the surface, the pressure gradient will tighten between high pressure to our north and the boundary to the south, leading to increasing northeast winds once again for the weekend and into next week. Overall, mostly dry conditions will continue except for a few showers over the interior and southwest Florida mainly this weekend with the stronger winds and temperatures will remain steady near normals.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with a few wind gusts to 20 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Northeast winds will continue over the waters for the next week. Wind speeds around exercise caution levels today and tomorrow will increase to advisory criteria starting tomorrow night, with some gusts to gale force expected, and remain elevated into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next few days as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 81 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 63 84 63 85 / 0 10 0 10 GIF 60 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 60 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 52 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 67 80 68 82 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.