textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Heat Advisory today for most of the area for heat index values up to around 110 degrees. Daily heat index values of 105+ degrees continue into the weekend.

- High rip current risk today into Friday, with lingering moderate rip current risk into the weekend before diminishing. - Afternoon showers and thunderstorms increase through the weekend.

SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)

Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

High pressure ridge remains south of the state keeping west to southwesterly flow in place. Tight gradient between remnants of Arthur will support breezy winds today and Friday. Additionally, cautionary level marine conditions are anticipated along with high risk of dangerous rip currents during this time. PWAT values are just below 2 in., there is plenty of instability to support showers and storms this afternoon and evening. The flow regime in place will keep pushing convection east as the sea breeze moves inland. Also, some the parameters needed for gusty winds with to reach the surface if storms develop will be in place today and again on Friday.

On the other hand, dangerous heat continues today and Friday. The Heat Advisory that is in effect will expire at 7pm this evening, but we will likely need another one on Friday. High temperatures once again will peak in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s resulting in triple digits heat indices.

LONG TERM (SAT-WED)

Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Going into the weekend and next week, the area of high pressure stays south with prevailing west to southwest winds, and moisture gradually increasing. This will keep above normal temperature in place with highs in the mid 90s through the period. This pattern will support a few showers and storms near the coast early becoming widespread over the interior as the sea breezes collide. Overnight lows will also be very warm in the mid to upper 70s with coastal areas remaining around 80 degrees. Additional advisories may be need through the period. Pockets of slightly drier air attempts to move into the CWA early next week lowering convection coverage to isolated-scattered on Monday and Tuesday, especially over the interior and along/south of I-4, before the ridge axis drifts back north across the area favoring increased sea breeze convection and associated PoPs by mid week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period across terminals. Breezy south to southwesterly prevail going into the evening. Rain chances remain low, however, given the current trends, added VCTS to LAL, FMY and RSW. Most of the activity over SWFl should push inland over the next couple of hours.

MARINE

Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Unsettled boating conditions remain across the Gulf waters as tight gradient persists. Mariners are urged to exercise caution wile operating small crafts. Winds and associated elevated seas gradually decrease on Friday into the weekend with no additional headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Very warm and humid conditions are anticipated through the period. High moisture will keep minimum humidity values well above critical levels. West to southwesterly winds prevail each afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Showers and storms will be possible near the coast early, and become widespread over the interior through the afternoon and into the evening through the weekend. No fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 83 92 81 92 / 10 20 10 20 FMY 80 95 79 94 / 10 20 10 40 GIF 78 96 77 94 / 20 40 10 50 SRQ 81 93 80 92 / 0 20 0 10 BKV 79 94 77 93 / 10 20 10 40 SPG 82 93 81 92 / 10 20 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.