textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Low potential for dense sea fog again tonight into early Saturday morning.

- Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms possible across the area associated with a cold front late Sunday into Monday.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected on Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 821 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Fog has been the primary weather hazard this evening. After covering nearly all coastal waters most of the day, the slightly drier airmass has mixed much of the fog out, with one exception: SWFL. Fog has remained prevalent in this region in close proximity to a stationary boundary. The question is whether or not this fog will persist through the night with the ENE flow settling in. It does appear to be dissipating, but there are competing forces that make it tougher to discern. Given current impacts, a dense fog advisory was issued for coastal SWFL and adjacent coastal waters. Additional radiation fog could also develop towards morning with favorable conditions in place.

The forecast has been updated a couple times to reflect current trends in fog development and dissipation. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

A weak stationary frontal boundary remains stretched across south Florida and into the eastern Gulf. Dense fog forming in the vicinity of this front has been the main impact over the past couple of days. This front pushes a bit south overnight as high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest over Florida and into the Gulf. This will produce a more northeast through southeast wind flow over the region tonight and on Saturday. The latest model guidance for fog does not show any significant development overnight tonight into Saturday morning, but as always, fog can be very tricky and will be closely monitored overnight. If any low clouds or fog do develop, it will likely stay along the west coast and move offshore with the predominant northeast through southeast wind flow. A pleasant and warm day is expected during the day on Saturday with above average temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

By Saturday evening, high pressure has moved off the Carolina coastline and will keep a southeast wind flow over the region. Farther to the west, the next big weather system will start to take shape. An area of low pressure will develop near the OK/TX border with a cold front extending south through eastern Texas. This weather system will traverse eastward through the southeast U.S. on Sunday into Monday. Preceding showers and storms ahead of the front will move into the eastern Gulf starting Sunday morning and will increase in coverage through the day on Sunday into Monday. SPC has placed parts of west central and southwest Florida in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with possible damaging winds ahead of and in the vicinity of this frontal passage. The cold front will push south and east of Florida by Monday evening as high pressure ridges in from the north bringing clearing conditions. The good news is that a cool down is not expected behind this front with average to slightly above average temperatures continuing. High pressure will dominate the weather for Tuesday through the end of next week with rain-free and warm conditions expected.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 821 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Fog is a concern for SWFL terminals where some sea fog has moved onshore. This should dissipate through the night, but light winds, clear skies, and calm winds could favor some additional development near inland and SWFL terminals towards sunrise. Otherwise, VFR should prevail through the period with light winds prevailing. Some fog could come back into play late tomorrow and additional impacts will be possible later on Sunday as a cold front moves into the region.

MARINE

Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Dense fog has lingered over the Gulf waters most of the day, but is slowly burning off and lifting. The latest model guidance is showing a lower chance of development tonight into Saturday morning and if any does develop, the northeast winds should keep it mostly away from the coastal regions. As always, this will be closely monitored through the day and overnight. Otherwise, light winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less will remain over the eastern Gulf waters through late Saturday evening. A slight uptick in winds and seas expected early Sunday morning to around 10-15 knots and seas building 2-3 feet. By late morning on Sunday, conditions begin to deteriorate more as a strong cold front approaches the eastern Gulf waters from the west. Hazardous winds and seas expected through the day on Sunday and into early Monday as this front moves through the area, with a Small Craft Advisory likely needed. There is also a Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging winds possible with frontal passage. The front moves east of Florida by late Monday evening, with clearing conditions and improving marine conditions expected. High pressure will dominate the weather for the remainder of next week with rain-free conditions, winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Rain-free and warm conditions with RH values above critical levels expected through Saturday. A cold front then moves through the area on Sunday into Monday producing scattered showers and isolated storms. High pressure builds back late Monday and dominates the weather most of next week with rain-free, warm conditions, light winds and RH values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 55 80 62 79 / 0 0 0 30 FMY 56 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 54 80 61 83 / 0 10 0 30 SRQ 54 79 60 77 / 0 0 0 20 BKV 46 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 40 SPG 60 77 64 76 / 0 0 0 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.