textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for heavy rain through the weekend with localized flooding possible.

- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches into the weekend.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with dangerous lightning through the weekend.

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

A weak frontal boundary remains stalled near the Florida/Georgia border and creates separation between much drier air aloft to the north and deep tropical moisture to the south creating diffluence in our area.

A cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms currently extend off the Nature Coast and will eventually move ashore. This cluster of showers and storms is moving to the southeast and will increase in areal coverage during throughout the afternoon and spreading inland into the early evening. West to southwest boundary layer flow continues and will hold over the region through early next week.The onshore winds over the coastal waters will continue to create a high risk of rip currents along area beaches through Saturday. The west/southwest flow will also promote nighttime showers/storms to form over the eastern Gulf and advect onshore during the late night/early morning hours for a portion of west central Florida throughout the weekend. Breaks in convection will occur, typically during the mid/late afternoon and evening hours. Although caveat will be U/L energy dropping over the region Saturday and through Sunday evening which will aid in large scale lift/destabilization across the northern/central forecast area.

Over the weekend, a sharp upper level trough will dig from the upper midwest over the eastern U.S. with an associated frontal boundary pushing across the southeast U.S. on Saturday, and stalling over the N Florida panhandle on Sunday. This will enhance the deep southwest flow over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula and will create large scale lift across the region. This will aid in developing numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms over the northern/central coastal waters which will again move onshore much of west central Florida both Saturday and Sunday. This will also increase the risk for flooding throughout the weekend near the Sarasota/Bradenton area and north to Levy county. Heaviest rainfall totals will likely be near and along the coast.

PWATs over 2 inches will produce heavy rainfall rates and totals through the weekend with localized flooding possible.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Expect SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA today at Tampa Bay area terminals and ISOLD-SCT coverage in SW FL today producing LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs. Convection to weaken and shift inland late this afternoon with VFR conditions returning areawide before 22Z-00Z then clearing this evening/tonight.

MARINE

High pressure well south of the area and a front stalled in the Deep South will keep the moderate west to southwest flow in place into early next week. Winds and seas will be higher in and near scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and pushing onshore around and shortly after sunrise each day. Cautionary level winds will occur on portions of the waters for the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER

No fire weather hazards are expected as deep tropical moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 88 78 86 / 40 70 70 80 FMY 78 90 77 90 / 20 40 40 50 GIF 76 90 75 88 / 10 70 50 80 SRQ 78 89 77 88 / 30 50 70 70 BKV 74 87 73 86 / 50 70 70 80 SPG 80 87 79 86 / 40 60 70 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.