textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through early next week.

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop each day through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 802 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A more south to southeast flow, sea breeze regime 6, is setting up for today and with abundant moisture, precipitable water around 2 inches, in place we'll see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop and move across the region this afternoon and evening. First few isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop around Tampa Bay and the Nature Coast as the bay/sea breezes develop early this afternoon, then more scattered to numerous convection will move in from the east and southeast during mid to late afternoon and continue to move across the region into this evening. Overall the current forecast looks on track with no adjustments needed at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 802 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

MVFR/occasional IFR conditions will be possible this afternoon and evening as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop and move across the area. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Light east to southeast winds early this morning will increase to 5 to 10 knots later this morning. Winds will shift to onshore with the bay/sea breezes at TPA, PIE and SRQ early this afternoon and then west to northwest mid to late afternoon. Elsewhere, east to southeast winds are expected to continue. Gusty erratic winds will be possible in and near any convection.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 High pressure surface and aloft will persist over the region, with the ridge axis lifting north of the forecast area. This will create east to southeast boundary layer flow across west central and southwest Florida which will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties. A few showers/storms will develop during the early afternoon hours around the Tampa Bay area as the bay breeze interacts with the sea breeze boundary. Simultaneously, the east coast sea breeze boundary will push across the peninsula with scattered showers and storms over the interior. Areal coverage of storms will increase over the coastal counties late in the day as the east coast sea breeze boundary collides with the west coast sea breeze boundary. A few storms may be strong with wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH...and can't rule out an isolated pulse severe storm.

Similar set-up each day through Tuesday. By midweek, some drier air aloft will advect over the northern forecast area, and possibly into the central forecast area which will decrease pops. However, easterly boundary layer flow will continue holding the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties, with showers/storms being enhanced along the boundary during the mid/late afternoon hours. The drier air aloft may sink further south late in the week which may decrease pops across all of west central and southwest Florida. NBM POPs appear to be a category or two too high in the extended portion of the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the forecast period with generally light winds and seas. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 77 90 77 / 60 30 70 40 FMY 94 76 92 76 / 70 30 80 40 GIF 94 76 92 76 / 40 30 80 20 SRQ 93 76 92 76 / 50 40 80 40 BKV 93 72 92 73 / 70 30 80 40 SPG 92 78 90 78 / 50 30 70 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.