textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters over the next several days.

- A cooler and drier airmass with below average temperatures will continue through most of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 The pattern aloft this afternoon features high pressure over the Gulf and a large low spinning off the mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure remains over the southeast with low pressure over the western Atlantic and a frontal boundary south of the state. A relatively drier and cooler air mass persists across the local area, with a tighter pressure gradient keeping gusty northeast winds in place. These breezy winds have also led to some fast-moving light showers moving east to west across areas mainly south of I-4, but rainfall amounts will be minimal.

For the rest of the week, mid/upper-level troughing will stay over the state before a cutoff low forms near the Bahamas late this weekend. Surface high pressure will also remain in place to our north, with an area of low pressure trying to develop along the stalled frontal boundary late this weekend as well. Overall, we stick with our cooler and drier pattern through the week, then start to get some temperature moderation and moisture return this weekend when we also see a slight uptick in rain chances.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue with gusty NE winds and SCT strato cu field off the W Atlantic into Tue.

MARINE

Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters through tonight with gusty northeast winds continuing. Through the rest of the week, winds will decrease some each afternoon, but still in the 15-20 knot range and close to advisory levels, and will then increase once again each night. Marine conditions will remain rather hazardous through the week and into next weekend as elevated winds and seas persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 Relatively cooler and drier air is in place across the region and will persist over the next several days, though relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 63 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 67 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 62 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 64 82 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 56 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 67 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.