textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast during the morning hours and will push inland during the afternoon and evening for today

- Drier air will come into the area Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Today will look a lot like our Monday. We continue to see southwest flow with morning and early afternoon showers along the west coast. By late afternoon and evening hours storms will shift more inland and towards the east coast of Florida.

As we head into our Wednesday some Saharan dust that is moving through the Atlantic will start to push into the state. We will still have enough available moisture to get some storms to develop but it will be isolated in nature. The SAL really start to sink in on Thursday where PoPs will pretty much be non existent. Due to the limited storm chances and less cloud cover highs still soar into the mid to upper 90's.

Friday will be mix bag. We will continue to see the Saharan dust over the area however a trough will be pushing through the Keys and South Florida. This trough will help to offset the dry air allowing for some scattered storms mainly in Southwest Florida. We will see much of the same on Saturday with the trough providing just enough moisture to bring some storms mainly in SW FLorida. By Sunday the trough will be in the Gulf but the SAL will still be around allowing for another dry day for the state. During this time frame areas that don't see rain can expect highs to once again be in the mid to upper 90's.

By next Monday we will flip the situation that we saw Friday and Saturday. A weakening front will start to push into North Florida resulting in some scattered showers and storms mainly along the Nature Coast however the Saharan Dust will remain in South Florida limited shower activity.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Once again southwesterly flow will bring scattered storms to the west coast through the morning and early afternoon. Storms will push inland through the late afternoon and evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Winds will remain light around 5 knots through Thursday with some morning showers and isolated thunderstorms today with dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday. A weak trough will push through the southern Gulf on Friday. This will increase winds slightly to 5 to 10 knots out of the southeast and bring some evening storms that will push off the west coast. Winds will drop back down to 5 knots on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Summertime humidity and heat will continue with scatted storms today. Some Saharan Dust will come over the area limiting storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Some moisture will return to SW Florida on Friday and Saturday bringing scattered shower chances while the rest of the area remains dry.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 81 94 81 / 40 10 30 10 FMY 94 78 95 78 / 50 20 30 10 GIF 94 76 95 77 / 60 10 40 10 SRQ 92 79 94 80 / 50 10 20 10 BKV 94 75 95 75 / 40 10 20 0 SPG 92 81 93 82 / 50 10 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.