textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Coastal flooding of 2 to 4 ft possible for Levy County with 1 to 3 ft possible southward to Hillsborough County Friday into Saturday.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of west central Florida today until midnight. A Marginal to Slight risk continues for excessive rainfall with the threat for localized flooding possible into Saturday.

- Hazardous marine and beach conditions with seas up to 6 to 10 ft and dangerous rip currents Friday and Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 811 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

There has been plenty of activity this afternoon with scattered showers and isolated storms as a frontal boundary remains stretched across the central part of the state. Some impressive rainfall totals of 3+ inches were observed in some of the stronger showers and storms, especially over SW Florida. Radar trends and latest model guidance keep showers over the area for the next several hours, but diminishing in coverage during the early morning hours. Showers and isolated storms expected once again on Friday afternoon. No changes needed to current forecast.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Isaias is located over the central Gulf moving northeast at around 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Isaias is expected to turn more northward on Friday afternoon headed toward the western Florida panhandle/Alabama coastline late Friday into early Saturday morning. Expected primary local direct impacts remain elevated water levels from Tampa Bay northward along the Nature Coast and hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

The overall forecast remains on track with increased confidence in model solutions. The weak frontal boundary currently stalled across the C Florida Peninsula continues to provide instability in the very moist and unstable atmosphere to produce more rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms.

Main threat from this afternoon's heavy trainers will be a potential for localized flooding of training cells. The flood watch remains in place around the Tampa Bay area with the higher rain chances along the coast especially urban areas that have received heavy rain in last few days. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally 5+ inches is possible. Interior areas have not seen as much widespread rain in the last week and are still in drought conditions, so will keep those areas out of a watch for now.

Hurricane Isaias in the south central Gulf this afternoon will turn more northward towards the north central Gulf on Friday lifting the stalled front Nward over the N FL Peninsula. Increasing low level winds will become southeast to south across the area Friday to produce faster moving showers/storms, with strong gusty winds, which will decrease the risk for widespread heavy rainfall, but locally heavy rain will remain possible.

As Hurricane Isaias moves into the N Gulf Fri into Sat it will produce new moon high tides above normal values along coastal areas with a coastal flood advisory in effect from Yankeetown to Egmont Key Friday through Saturday morning for tides 1 to 3 feet above astronomical values, and a Storm Surge Watch for coastal Levy county for tides 2 to 4 feet above astronomical values. There will also be an increasing risk for dangerous rip currents at area beaches Friday persisting into Saturday.

Isaias moves into the Deep South this weekend but abundant moisture and southerly flow will combine with afternoon heating to generate numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Early next week, drier surface high pressure is expected to decrease rain chances and lower dewpoints.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 811 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

It continues to be a messy evening as areas of showers over the eastern Gulf waters continue to move ashore producing MVFR to IFR CIGs/VSBYs in the stronger showers. Showers will diminish in coverage over the next several hours, but some MVFR/IFR CIGs could stick around through the overnight hours. East-northeast winds less than 10 knots expected overnight and morning, increasing southeast 10-15 with some higher gusts during the afternoon on Friday. More showers and isolated storms expected once again on Friday afternoon after 16Z.

MARINE

Issued at 811 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The frontal boundary stalled across the central waters will lift to the north with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing. Hurricane Isaias moving through the Central Gulf will produce increasing hazardous marine conditions tonight, through Friday and continuing on Saturday. Expect swells and winds to produce large choppy and confused seas up to around 10 feet. Winds and seas are expected to gradually subside by the end of the weekend. Surface high pressure will build over the waters early next week with benign conditions developing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 73 87 78 87 / 60 60 30 60 FMY 75 90 77 90 / 60 50 30 50 GIF 73 90 76 90 / 60 60 30 90 SRQ 73 89 76 89 / 60 50 40 60 BKV 69 89 74 90 / 70 60 30 70 SPG 74 87 78 87 / 70 60 30 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Pinellas-Sumter.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Pasco-Pinellas.

High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT Friday through Saturday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.