textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue through the weekend and into next week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day mainly over the interior and southwest Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Ridging surface and aloft persist over the area with another round of sea breeze convection this afternoon and evening focusing over areas from SWFL through W FL along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions. Highest chances anticipated from around the I-4 corridor southward and along and east of the I-75 corridor. Morning sounding sampled near-average PWAT of 1.85 inches along with S/SE winds below 5 knots in the Sfc-3/6km layers, indicating likely slow storm motions but any flooding/ponding threat likely limited to the heaviest localized downpours given the lack of deeper moisture. Weak shear and near-average 500 mb temps around 7 deg C should limit severe threat although a strong wind gust and small hail remain possible with the strongest convection. Highs should reach the upper 80s/lower 90s coastal and lower/mid 90s inland before being tempered by afternoon convection.

CONUS pattern aloft amplifies notably through early next with a deep W U.S. trough/strong E U.S. ridge setup taking shape, while the surface ridge shifts south across the area as a weak frontal boundary sinks south across the E Seaboard in response to downstream troughing aloft over the W Atlantic and stalls over the Srn E Seaboard/N Gulf coast. While PWATs don't appreciably change over the area, boundary layer flow gradually shifts to W/NW on Monday and gradually veers to E/NE through Wednesday, allowing highest rain chances to shift to northern and central areas on Mon-Tue before shifting back to central and southern areas on Wednesday. The weak/remnant boundary north of the area early next week may pose a low risk of tropical development, with NHC currently highlighting the area off the SE U.S. coast with a 20% development chance over the next 7 days.

Deep layer E to E/SE flow settles in over the latter half of next week with typical scattered to numerous afternoon and evening convective coverage over W FL, highest chances central and south. Afternoon highs continue to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s, with max heat indices in the lower/mid 100s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

SH/TSRA have begun to develop near terminals and will continue through mid-late afternoon and into the evening, with associated MVFR/LCL IFR impacts most likely at LAL and SWFL terminals late afternoon through early evening. Activity initially diminishes across northern coastal terminals early evening, lingering a few hours longer perhaps into late evening for SWFL terminals as outflow pushes convection back toward the coast. Winds becoming light/variable this evening into tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions with winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. Showers and storms producing locally higher winds and seas will be the primary concern through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Ample moisture to maintain RHs above critical levels through the period. Daily showers and storms may produce locally erratic and gusty winds, otherwise no significant fire concerns expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 93 81 93 / 10 50 10 50 FMY 77 94 78 96 / 40 40 20 20 GIF 76 95 77 95 / 40 50 20 50 SRQ 78 94 79 94 / 20 40 10 40 BKV 73 96 75 96 / 10 30 10 50 SPG 80 94 81 94 / 10 40 10 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.