textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record high temperatures continue through the week.

- There is chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening into early next week.

- Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible the next few days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) VFR conditions this evening with easterly flow setting up as most of the ISOL fast moving and brief late afternoon SHRA is moving offshore in coastal areas with dissipating cloud cover. Aft 10Z, guidance brings another round of SCT-BKN IFR CIGs thru 13Z. Additional coverage of SHRA THU aft 20Z to introduce PROB30 for MVFR cigs/vsbys in SW FL terminals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

The early summerlike pattern will persist into early next week as high pressure ridges west into the southeast U.S. with the axis north of the area. This will keep an east to southeast low level flow in place and the flow should remain strong enough to keep the west coast sea breeze near the coast each afternoon. This combined with enough moisture will allow isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection to develop each day with the highest chances expected to be over the coastal counties from around Tampa Bay south. Areas of late night low clouds and patchy fog will remain possible each day as dew points remain the 60s. Temperatures will remain above normal with a few more record highs possible.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

High pressure will continue to ridge across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf waters with an easterly flow at 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less through the weekend. A chance of showers and a stray thunderstorm will be possible during the late afternoon and evening each day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

High pressure ridging across the region will keep a predominant easterly flow over the area with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels. The chance of afternoon and evening showers, along with a few thunderstorms, will continue into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 67 87 68 86 / 10 50 40 50 FMY 68 87 68 88 / 20 60 30 50 GIF 66 86 67 87 / 0 40 20 40 SRQ 66 85 67 86 / 10 60 40 50 BKV 60 87 62 89 / 10 40 30 50 SPG 70 84 70 85 / 10 50 40 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.