textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Cold Watch and a Freeze Watch are now in effect for much of the local area Saturday night through Sunday morning.

- A Gale Watch is now in effect for all coastal waters from Saturday morning through Sunday morning.

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions and a high risk of strong rip currents at area beaches this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 High pressure over the region will shift eastward tonight into Friday as our next cold front approaches, leading to another cool night tonight, though it will be several degrees warmer than last night. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, then the front will then move through late Friday night into Saturday, bringing some showers, though rainfall amounts will be on the low side once again.

The rest of this discussion will be an edited version of the previous, as the mid shift did a great job summarizing the hazards. Bottom line, we are still forecasting a low chance for snow flurries and we are still expecting a plethora of hazards related to cold and wind.

A very tight pressure gradient will develop over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula Saturday and Saturday night in the wake of the front...a result of the significant pressure difference between the rapidly intensifying coastal storm off the Carolina coast and the strong Canadian high pressure system over the Central Plains. As the cold front moves across the forecast area on Saturday, temperatures will likely be falling (or at best holding steady) across the region during the afternoon hours. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH will develop across west central and southwest Florida with higher gusts likely, especially near the coast.

There will be a number of hazards associated with this sequence of events that run from low probability of occurrence to a very high probability of occurrence. Starting with the highest likelihood of occurrence:

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop over the weekend and a Gale Watch has been issued for Saturday morning through Sunday morning and this will likely be upgraded in the next day or so. We are also expected a few Storm Force wind gusts across the waters.

- The arctic air will usher in the coldest temperatures of the year. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday night into Sunday morning and Freeze Warnings will likely be needed for much of the forecast area both Saturday night and Sunday night. A hard freeze will be possible across the nature coast Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the lower to mid 20s each night. Temperatures across the interior are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s both nights...with lower to mid 30s near the coast and across southwest Florida. Gusty northwest winds will create wind chills Saturday night in the teens across the nature coast...with single digits possible mainly across Levy and Citrus counties. Wind chills are expected to be in the teens to lower 20s across the interior and generally in the 20s elsewhere. The wind is expected to taper off Sunday night, with wind chills generally about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature.

- Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see some record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning across the region...some low max temperature records set on Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents are expected to develop Saturday through Sunday. There is also a low to moderate probability of high surf.

- The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county to run 1 to 2 feet above astronomical normal tide levels Saturday and Saturday night. This is also in the low to moderate probability of occurrence.

- The strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to develop over the eastern Gulf on Saturday and Saturday night. With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal waters...Gulf effect type light showers. The backside or northern extent of the cloud shield could see temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become light mixed snow/rain showers or snow showers/flurries. Trajectories would indicate that the clouds may advect locally onshore...with the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation from Citrus to Pinellas/Hillsborough counties. This is a low probability event...but not out of the realm of possibility. It's common in scenarios like this that drizzle or very light rain gets reported as snow...when in fact surface temperatures don't support that possibility. Clear skies expected Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to climb into the mid to upper 40s across northern and central areas...around 50 to the lower 50s south. Another frigid night Sunday night as mentioned above with most areas away from the coast or extreme southwest Florida in the 20s. Again, record cold temperatures will be possible both Sunday and Sunday night.

The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but still another cold day across the region with high temperatures from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the nature coast, and around freezing to slightly above freezing across the interior...with upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast.

The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear skies each day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1248 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Winds and seas remain benign with no headlines expected through Friday. A cold front will then move across the waters Friday night into Saturday, with Gale conditions expected Saturday and Saturday night, and we could even see a few gusts to Storm Force (48 kts or greater). Winds will subside starting Sunday night, but seas will likely remain elevated for a longer period of time before they subside and so advisories may still be necessary into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1248 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 After a dry afternoon today, moisture will increase for Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front. This next front will bring another dry air mass over the region for Sunday into early next week, with elevated Red Flag risk for Sunday as winds will be breezy. Winds then diminish for Monday with no further fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 45 70 51 58 / 0 0 30 30 FMY 48 71 52 63 / 0 10 30 50 GIF 44 73 49 58 / 0 0 20 20 SRQ 45 69 52 62 / 0 0 40 40 BKV 35 70 42 56 / 0 0 30 20 SPG 52 69 55 60 / 0 0 40 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.