textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Today and continue through Monday.

- Much cooler drier air arrives by next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A cold front continues to move towards the area from the northwest, brining some much needed rain. Later this morning showers and a few storms will reach the nature coast then move southeast across the area through the afternoon into the evening. A few showers could linger into the overnight hours before completing clearing out. Behind the front, slightly cooler and drier air will move into the area, but a major cool down is not expected.

Luckily, the beneficial rain chances remain elevated through the weekend as high pressure sets up in the Atlantic generating a more easterly flow. With the west coast sea breeze developing each afternoon, coupled with daytime heating, scattered afternoon showers will be likely, especially over the interior areas.

A stronger cold front is expected to move through Monday. Much cooler air will actually filter in behind this front. Low temperatures will dip back into the 40s and 50s through most of next week. High temperatures will remain a little below average as well.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Messy conditions expected today as a line of showers and storms moves through associated with a cold front. Low clouds and/or fog is also still possible early this morning ahead of the showers. Below VFR conditions will be likely as showers and storms move through from northwest to southeast. Most likely timing for TAF sites will likely be around 20-22Z for West Central and Central areas and 21- 23Z for SWFL sites. However, confidence for timing and impacts for southern sites was a bit lower as showers may break up.

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Marine conditions deteriorate this morning as showers and storms approach the northern waters then continue southeast. Winds and seas will increase through the day before diminishing on Friday. Shower and storm chances remain elevated through the weekend. A stronger cold front moves through on Monday, increasing winds and seas once again.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values stay above critical levels. Showers and storms move through today bringing some much need rain. Rain chances remain elevated through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 62 82 66 / 70 20 20 10 FMY 85 67 86 67 / 40 30 30 20 GIF 85 62 82 64 / 60 30 20 20 SRQ 81 62 84 66 / 60 20 20 20 BKV 83 55 84 59 / 70 20 10 10 SPG 81 65 82 69 / 60 20 20 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.