textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler temperatures will move in tonight and hold through the rest of the week.

- Hazardous boating conditions will develop over the coastal waters tonight and hold through at least Tuesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Big changes will be on the way tonight as a strong cold front pushes through the area. Behind it cold air will be quickly filtering in. Highs on Tuesday will be stuck in the 50's north of I- 4 and barely get to 60 to the south. Our coldest morning will be on Wednesday with at or below freezing temperatures along the Nature Coast and 30's for everyone else away for the intermittent coast line. The wind will make it feel even cooler with feels like temperatures at or below freezing for almost all of us. Highs on Wednesday will be very similiar to Tuesday with most of us just around 60 degrees. We will be seeing a slow warm up starting on Thursday. By Friday highs will be back in the low 70's. This warm up will continue for the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 156 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

VFR conditions for the period with winds shifting to the north overnight as a cold front pushes through the area.

MARINE

Issued at 156 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

A big change will be coming tonight. Winds have already started to pick up ahead of a cold front that will push through Monday night. Behind the front winds will quickly shift to the north and pick up to 20 to 25 knots early Tuesday morning. By Tuesday evening winds will calm down slightly to 15 to 20 knots out of the north. These conditions should remain through Wednesday before winds come down to 5 to 10 knots on Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

A strong cold front will push through Monday night. This will dry us out bring critical RHs across the area Tuesday through Thursday. The driest day will be Wednesday with RHs dropping down into the low to mid 20's for the interior. Winds, however, will remain below criteria for Red Flag Warnings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 47 60 40 / 10 10 0 0 FMY 79 53 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 81 45 60 35 / 0 10 0 0 SRQ 76 48 61 41 / 10 10 0 0 BKV 78 38 58 28 / 20 10 0 0 SPG 75 51 60 46 / 10 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk from 9 PM EST this evening through late Tuesday night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.