textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

-Thunderstorm hazards through Monday.

-Fire danger increases next week.

-Cooler and drier conditions next week.

UPDATE

Shortwave trough in the W Gulf continues to send series of vort maxes over the Gulf and FL Peninsula to keep unsettled weather trough the weekend. 12Z sounding, like yesterday, shows LL moisture trapped below 5k inversion while radar imagery is indicating some light rain showers over the Nature Coast this morning and expect showers to increase in coverage with increasing daytime heating. During the afternoon, max diurnal heating combining with the afternoon seabreeze collisions to again break the cap and increase shower and thunderstorm coverage into the evening hours with highest PoPs from the I-75 corridor eastward into interior areas.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions with light E winds and multiple low level cloud decks AOA 03k ft this morning except SW FL were lingering IFR cigs are expected to lift shortly. Instability remains in place for SCT SHRA to keep VCSH in most areas until afternoon diurnal heating and seabreeze boundary interactions increase chances for TSRA thru around 00Z. Low clouds and patchy fog likely again tonight with flight restrictions possible towards 12Z.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Deep moisture remains over the area resulting in lingering showers this morning. Coverage will likely increase through the afternoon as the sea breeze develops, with a few isolated storms expected as well. Sunday, the flow becomes more southeasterly, pulling in extra moisture from the south. Currently, Sunday conditions will favor increased instability leading to the possibility of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Currently the SPC has placed the FL peninsula in a marginal risk (1 of 5)for severe thunderstorms. The main threat will be severe level winds and hail.

Monday, a strong cold front will sweep in from the northwest with a line of showers pushing out ahead. Once again, SPC has placed the peninsula in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms. Again, the main threat being severe level winds and hail. Following Monday's front, a much colder airmass will advect over the area. By Tuesday morning, low temperatures will dip back into the upper 30s over the nature coast with 40s and 50s elsewhere. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to 60s. Wednesday morning more widespread 30s and 40s will be likely. The below average temperatures stick around through the end of the week.

MARINE

Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Marine conditions remain unsettled through the weekend due to possible showers and storms move over the waters. Winds remain below cautionary levels through the weekend, but quickly increase to advisory levels by Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches the waters. The risk for rip currents also increases Monday and Tuesday. Winds and seas will begin to diminish Tuesday evening, though will likely still be around exercise caution levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Over the next few days deep level moisture will limit fire weather concerns. Showers and storms will be possible today through Monday. A much cooler, drier air mass moves in Tuesday, dropping the RH values slightly below critical values, mainly for the northernmost counties. Drier conditions continue through most of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 83 68 84 71 / 40 20 70 40 FMY 86 67 85 70 / 40 30 70 30 GIF 83 66 85 68 / 50 20 80 40 SRQ 83 67 84 70 / 30 10 70 30 BKV 83 61 86 66 / 40 20 70 40 SPG 84 70 84 73 / 30 10 70 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.