textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

-Drier on Friday but a few showers and storms may linger across southern areas. -Unsettled weather at times this weekend with daily showers and storm chances.

-Much cooler and drier air arrives early next week in the wake of a strong cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A cold front is moving southeastward across north central Florida this afternoon and will push into south Florida tonight before stalling around the northern FL Keys and northern Bahamas into the weekend. Ahead of the frontal boundary, a line of mostly showers and perhaps an embedded storm or two will move through the forecast area through the remainder of the day but the expectation is that this activity will continue to weaken as it becomes increasingly displaced from better upper level support north of the area. Thus, expecting this to be a non-severe frontal passage with some opportunity of beneficial rainfall, though with QPF amounts mostly ranging between 0.25-0.50 inches and up to locally an inch or so, this won't be nearly enough to deliver meaningful drought improvements.

Drier air moves in on Friday in the wake of the frontal boundary but the deeper moisture will not be completely scoured out due to the front not pushing too far south of the region. This will result in low clouds in the morning gradually lifting to SCT/BKN stratocu in the afternoon with temperatures still above normal in the low/mid 80s, though humidity values will be somewhat more comfortable. In addition, there might be enough lingering moisture combined with diurnal heating to support a few showers/storms in SWFL and southern interior areas in closer proximity to the frontal boundary but most areas will probably miss out on rainfall tomorrow. However, rain chances will increase by the weekend for a larger portion of the forecast area as the aforementioned frontal boundary pulls northward as a warm front and deeper moisture builds in from the south. Meanwhile, troughing aloft gradually builds into the Gulf and will combine with shortwave impulses embedded in a southwesterly flow aloft regime to support daily shower and thunderstorm chances throughout the weekend.

By early next week, an upper level trough will dig across the central and eastern US as the associated surface low deepens quickly in the Great Lakes region. The cold front associated with this surface low will sweep through the FL peninsula sometime late Monday into early Tuesday with additional rainfall chances before a much cooler airmass puts a brief end to the prolonged stretch of very warm conditions recently. While it also trends generally drier in the wake of this frontal passage, there remains uncertainty with how far from the area the frontal boundary eventually stalls so will keep a consensus blend in the forecast for now, which highlights low PoPs through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A line of SHRA and possibly isolated TSRA will move through the region through the remainder of the day with the precipitation activity tapering off overnight. This may result in occasional VSBY restrictions as the line moves through with potentially low clouds developing overnight into Friday morning as low level moisture lingers behind the front. Thus, some MVFR CIGs will be possible overnight into Friday morning but VFR conditions should then prevail through the end of the period. Breezy SW winds will shift to the NNE tonight into tomorrow in the wake of the frontal boundary.

MARINE

Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop tonight across the northern Gulf waters with small craft exercise cautionary levels elsewhere in the wake of a frontal passage. Northeasterly winds will then prevail on Friday with winds of 10-15 kts and seas of 2-4 ft. Winds and seas will decrease further at the start of the weekend but marine conditions start to deteriorate late in the weekend and into next week ahead of a strong cold front. As a result, headlines may eventually be needed early next week as strong northerly winds develop in the wake of this frontal boundary.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A line of showers will move through the area through this evening with drier air building in on Friday, though a few showers and storms may develop across SWFL or southern interior areas late in the day tomorrow as the frontal boundary stalls south of the areas. For areas further with less humidity, RH values may drop into the 40s but humidity values will remain above critical levels. Weather conditions will remain somewhat unsettled heading into the weekend as deeper moisture starts to build back into the area so daily shower and thudnerstorms chances are expected with no fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 83 67 83 / 20 10 10 60 FMY 66 86 68 85 / 30 30 30 70 GIF 62 82 65 83 / 30 20 10 70 SRQ 63 84 67 84 / 20 10 20 60 BKV 54 83 59 84 / 20 10 10 50 SPG 66 83 70 84 / 20 10 10 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.