textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week.

- Increased chances of showers and thunderstorms today, with a few strong or severe storms possible.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 844 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Scattered storms continue to linger this evening with activity drifting slowly to the NNW across much of west central FL and the Nature Coast at this time. This will linger over the next few hours and then taper off with the loss of diurnal heating. Other than some minor adjustments to PoPs this evening based on recent radar trends, the forecast remains in good shape this evening with overnight lows falling to the upper 60s to low 70s across the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Comparing yesterday morning Skew-t to this morning you can see moisture has been increasing in the mid levels. This has brought our PW up from 1.13 to 1.5 today. This extra moisture and our favorable wind flow out of the southeast should give us some welcomed scatted showers and storms across the West Coast of Florida. We are also seeing a marginal risk of severe weather today with the main concern will be stronger winds within the thunderstorms.

As we head into our work week the moisture will be unchanged but winds will be shifting more northeast. The northeasterly flow typically pushes much of the seabreeze thunderstorm activity down to Southwest Florida. Because of this we can expect scattered showers and storms each afternoon in Southwest Florida with some isolated storms along West Central Florida and inland areas through Thursday.

By Friday and Saturday we will see an upper level low develop near the Bahamas. This will help to give the whole area scattered shower and thunderstorm chances through the afternoon and evening.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Scattered TSRA continues to linger this evening with occasional restrictions possible over the next couple of hours, particularly during periods of heavier precipitation. After the precipitation activity tapers off later this evening, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period. ESE winds overnight will gradually shift onshore at coastal sites Monday afternoon with occasional gusts tomorrow around 15-20 kts throughout the day.

MARINE

Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

We will continue to see winds out of the southeast today around 5 to 10 knots. Our main boating hazard will be increase showers and storms along the west coast of Florida. These storms are expected to push off the west coast in the late evening and early overnight hours. This will continue to be a concern for the rest of the week with the better chances in Southwest Florida. Winds will also shift more easterly and pick up to 10 to 15 knots for Monday and Tuesday before going back down to 5 to 10 for the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Moisture will be increasing throughout our Sunday with scattered showers and storm. The moist atmosphere with scattered showers will continue for much of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 92 75 91 / 40 20 0 50 FMY 74 94 74 93 / 40 50 20 80 GIF 71 91 72 91 / 20 10 0 40 SRQ 72 94 73 93 / 40 30 10 60 BKV 68 94 69 94 / 40 10 0 30 SPG 74 94 75 94 / 40 20 10 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.