textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms for Sunday and Monday.

- Sunny and dry conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Northwest flow is in place aloft this afternoon with the surface ridge axis south of Florida and an area of low pressure off the mid- Atlantic coast. West/southwest boundary layer flow has pushed the west coast sea breeze inland and we should again see some shower and storm activity once this boundary meets the east coast version more toward the east coast of the state over the next few hours. Flow shifts to more north/northeast tonight through Monday as a back-door boundary pass over the state and we'll likely see a few more showers or storms Monday afternoon before drier air moves back into the region. Some of these could end up being closer to the west coast later in the day as the sea breeze gets pinned.

Dry weather continues Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds back over the region, then another cold front slowly sags southward over central Florida on Thursday. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast for mainly the Nature Coast region Thursday afternoon, though this will depend on how far south the front gets before stalling. Our next, and hopefully better, rain chance comes on Saturday as shortwave energy moves over the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some patchy fog is possible tonight, but probabilities are too low to mention. Also seeing some early hints at showers near the Tampa Bay area after 18Z tomorrow, so have not put anything explicitly in the TAFs, but worth mentioning for now.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Benign conditions will continue over the waters for the next several days with no headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with no Red Flag concerns over the next few days. A few showers or storms are expected this afternoon and Monday, but dry conditions persist otherwise. Some patchy fog is possible tonight, but no widespread significant fog is anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 89 69 90 / 0 20 10 0 FMY 67 90 68 91 / 0 10 10 0 GIF 67 89 67 90 / 0 20 0 0 SRQ 68 89 67 89 / 0 10 10 0 BKV 63 90 61 91 / 0 10 0 0 SPG 74 89 73 90 / 0 20 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.