textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Late night and early morning patchy fog possible next few days.

- Above normal to near-record high temperatures over inland areas through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances through Sunday for the northern Nature Coast and interior before area wide chances with frontal boundary Monday night and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026 A stationary boundary will persist across north Florida through the weekend. An U/L disturbances will ride over the boundary today which will increase shower/thunderstorm activity with Levy county on the southern extent of that activity during the mid/late afternoon hours. Onshore boundary layer flow will push the west coast sea breeze boundary inland quickly today which should keep even interior areas hot and dry through the day, with any thunderstorm activity that does develop east of the interior forecast area. There is a marginal risk for severe storms today in Levy county, but the main threat should be just north of the forecast area. Near record temps again over the interior with highs ranging from the mid 80s at the coast to the mid/upper 90s over the interior.

On Sunday, the stationary boundary will remain across north Florida. However, a more typical onshore flow type day across the forecast area with the west coast sea breeze pushing inland early during the day with scattered showers/thunderstorms developing over the interior during the mid/late afternoon hours and pushing east out of the area by evening.

The next U/L disturbance will ride over the stationary boundary early next week with the front beginning to sag south over the forecast area Monday night and Tuesday. Highest pops across the north in proximity to the frontal boundary and over the interior due to the onshore boundary layer flow with storms along the west coast sea breeze boundary.

High pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida mid/late week with drier air advecting over the region. Very warm dry conditions expected under partly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the mid 80s at the coast to the lower 90s inland.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026 Patchy fog during the late night early morning hours will create LCL MVFR VSBYs along with some MVFR CIGs. Skies will become partly cloudy during the morning hours with VFR conditions the remainder of the day with SCT 040-050 and SCT LCL BKN250.

MARINE

Issued at 1210 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026 Weak gradient will persist over the waters through the period with relatively benign winds and seas...although strong gusty winds associated with isolated thunderstorms along with locally rough seas. Best chance of storms will be Monday and Monday night across the northern waters with a few strong storms possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1210 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026 Hot temperatures over the interior this afternoon will cause min RH's to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s this afternoon. Increase in moisture on Sunday should keep min RH's above 40 percent across the forecast area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 76 90 77 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 93 75 94 76 / 0 10 10 0 GIF 95 74 93 74 / 10 10 30 10 SRQ 89 74 90 75 / 0 10 0 0 BKV 92 69 92 70 / 10 10 10 0 SPG 90 77 90 78 / 0 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.