textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The unsettled pattern continues over the next couple of days as a front over north florida drifts slowly south before stalling along the nature coast. Abundant moisture south of the boundary has led to numerous showers and thunderstorms already today. Strongest storms have shifted over towards the east coast. However, a few showers and storms could continue to develop near the west coast through the afternoon. Conditions over land begin to diminish later this evening. However, with the boundary stalling over the nature coast, isolated to scattered showers and storms will likely continue to develop over the waters overnight which could potentially move onshore early Tuesday morning.

By Tuesday afternoon high pressure to the north begins to take control shifting the flow more easterly through Wednesday. This will push showers and storms that develop inland, towards the west coast in the late afternoon, evening hours. The easterly steering pattern will not last long though, as the high pressure moves out over the Atlantic, the flow over the area will shift back to the south to southwest. Southwest flow will mean early morning coast showers that move onshore, with further development inland and to towards the east coast later in the day. Daily hazards will be the possibility of strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy down pours that could lead to localized urban flooding, in any storm that develops.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Periods of below VFR conditions remain possible as showers and storms continue to develop and move through the area. Though most coverage has shifted over SWFL and towards the east coast, a few pop up showers further north are still possible. Later in the evening into the overnight hours, coast showers moving onshore could lead to brief periods of MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities. Coverage increases tomorrow through the day, especially inland.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Though the flow remains on the light side, marine conditions remain unsettled. Ample moisture lingers over the Gulf, which continues to support the development of showers and storms. Though conditions over the waters this afternoon have shifted mostly onshore, development is expected to return later this evening into the overnight/early morning hours. The pattern shifts by midweek, favoring an easterly wind which will push showers and storms over the waters later in the afternoons and evenings.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

No major fire weather concerns through the week as plenty of moisture remains over the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 90 77 91 / 40 70 50 80 FMY 77 93 77 93 / 30 40 40 80 GIF 75 93 75 93 / 50 60 40 80 SRQ 77 91 76 92 / 40 60 40 70 BKV 73 92 73 92 / 50 70 40 80 SPG 78 90 78 91 / 40 60 50 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.