textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory today from 11 AM to 7 PM for all of west central and southwest Florida. Hot and humid conditions will continue through the week. - Below normal rain chances and coverage continue through Tuesday, then moisture slowly increases from north to south with rain chances closer to normal mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Stacked ridging remains in place across the Deep South and FL Peninsula through mid week as dry air and subsidence aloft keeps PoPs well below normal for mid August areawide. Lack of cloud cover and rain cooled air will allow daytime temps to climb quickly with near record temps and very high and dangerous heat index values through mid-week.

U/L ridging gradually breaks down over the E U.S. and shifts west over into mid week, with the surface ridge axis shifting south of area in response to a frontal boundary sinking into the SE U.S. Onshore boundary layer flow continues through the remainder of the week while moisture gradually increases from north to south, particularly by mid week and beyond. Rain chances increase in response, mainly across north and central areas on Tuesday, then expand to area wide coverage on Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Shower and storm timing will favor coastal areas overnight through early morning before spreading inland late morning through the afternoon while increasing in areal coverage. Cloud cover and shower/storm coverage will favor a slight decrease in afternoon highs, around 90 along the immediate coast and lower/mid 90s further inland. Humid and muggy conditions will persist along with marginal heat advisory conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Dry air aloft is keeping the VFR conditions in place at all terminals with W winds and FEW-SCT clouds through TUE.

MARINE

Westerly flow to increase through mid week as high pressure holds south of the waters with occasionally gusty winds and moderately choppy seas. Moisture increases with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected mid to late week, most likely during the late night and morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

The hot and humid conditions continue through mid week as rain chances gradually increase into mid week with activity favoring coastal areas during the morning before spreading to interior areas in the afternoon. Minimal fire weather hazards expected as minimum relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 93 82 92 / 0 30 30 60 FMY 77 95 79 94 / 0 10 10 50 GIF 78 97 79 95 / 10 50 10 80 SRQ 79 93 80 93 / 0 20 20 50 BKV 77 93 78 93 / 10 50 30 70 SPG 82 93 83 92 / 0 20 30 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.