textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms this evening near the coast from Tampa Bay southward.

- Fair, warm and dry conditions expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- A few showers possible Nature Coast Thursday, then much better rain chances across the entire region by Saturday night and Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue along and just off the west coast from around Tampa Bay southward. This convection will continue to drift west and gradually dissipate over the next few hours with breezy east to northeast winds across the region. The winds will diminish later this evening and overnight and remain out of the east to northeast. Some low clouds are expected to spread/develop into the area later tonight, but mainly from around the I-4 corridor northward. These should lift and dissipate by mid-morning Tuesday with mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day with temperatures warming up into the mid 80s along the coast to around 90 inland. Current forecast looks good with no adjustments needed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Some areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning, but mainly expected to affect areas from around the Interstate 4 corridor north, which includes TPA and LAL. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with gusty east to northeast winds at 10 t 15 knots early tonight diminishing later this evening and overnight to 4 to 7 knots. East winds at 5 to 10 knots are expected mid to late morning Tuesday, then shift to west to northeast during the afternoon as the bay and sea breeze develop and move inland.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A weak cold front draped across central Florida will gradually drift south as the day continues. Extra moisture associated with the front will lead to increased rain chances later this afternoon into the early evening, especially across SWFL where sea breeze interactions will provide extra lift. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Dry air moves in behind the front as high pressure builds back in, limiting rain chances through mid week. A little extra moisture moves in along the Nature Coast Thursday, bringing a slight chance of showers. Otherwise, a more significant chance for showers arrives over the weekend as a stronger cold front moves through the area. Models currently differ on timing and duration, but overall, much needed rain is expected sometime during the weekend possibly into Monday next week. With limited rain chances, and high pressure dominating, temperatures through the end of the week will run above normal.

MARINE

Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Mostly quiet marine conditions expected through the week. A weak cold front currently draped over central FL is bringing a little extra moisture and gusty winds. A few showers and storms could be possible over coastal waters this evening, especially near SWFL. A more significant cold front is expected to move over the waters this weekend, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, and increased winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

High pressure moves over the area following a weak cold front pushing through today. Dry air will filter in tomorrow, with RH values dropping to near critical levels through the week. Winds are expected to remain below 15 mph. Moisture increases as the weekend approaches and a more significant cold front moves through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 90 70 88 / 10 0 0 0 FMY 68 91 68 89 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 66 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 66 90 68 86 / 20 0 0 0 BKV 60 91 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 73 90 73 86 / 20 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.