textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 331 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
Currently at the surface, broad high pressure ridging north of Florida is favoring easterly flow today and Friday, with near normal temperatures gradually warming up through the start of the weekend. Some patchy fog and low stratus mainly over the Nature Coast will lift out by mid morning today. A couple of impulses moving into Florida aloft could allow for a few showers or sprinkles today and Friday, but otherwise mainly rain free conditions will persist through the end of the week.
This weekend, an upper level trough will swing into the southeastern US, sweeping a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico and into the Florida Peninsula by late Sunday. This will shift the surface ridge south on Saturday, turning winds to southeasterly and southerly, allowing atmospheric moisture to increase. Rain chances will build late Saturday and into Sunday, with chances for some thunderstorms along the frontal passage Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will drop slightly behind the front during the first half of the week, but will generally remain near to slightly above normal.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 651 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
VFR conditions expected through the period with light winds out of the east and northeast.
MARINE
Issued at 331 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
High pressure will hold north of the waters today and Friday. The ridge will settle south on Saturday before a cold front sweeps across the waters Sunday and Sunday night with winds becoming southeasterly on Saturday and southerly on Sunday, then turning to northerly behind the front on Monday. Increasing moisture ahead of the front will produce showers and storms on Sunday, with locally gusty winds possible. Otherwise, winds will generally remain below 15 knots through early next week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 331 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
No fire weather concerns.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 64 81 65 / 20 10 10 10 FMY 83 66 82 65 / 10 10 10 10 GIF 80 64 83 65 / 10 10 20 10 SRQ 80 64 82 65 / 20 10 10 10 BKV 78 58 83 60 / 10 0 10 10 SPG 75 65 78 66 / 20 10 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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