textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms today south of Sarasota.

- Hazardous boating conditions this morning, improving this afternoon and tonight. - Cooler temperatures today...warming trend the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 740 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Areas of MVFR CIGs between 010-050 expected through the morning hours at all terminals. A few light showers will also be possible with generally VFR VSBYs, so will cover this with VCSH for now and monitor through the day for the need of TEMPO groups in heavier showers or a stray storm. Winds will remain around 8-12 knots.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

A frontal boundary will stall across south Florida today with a continued chance of showers and a few thunderstorms mainly south of Sarasota, with the best chance of storms over southwest Florida this afternoon as a weak U/L disturbance rides over the frontal boundary late today and this evening. High pressure will build over the northern and central forecast area with gradual decreasing cloudiness across the nature coast this morning and the the Tampa Bay area by this afternoon.

As the U/L disturbance exits east of the region tonight, surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will build over west central and southwest Florida on Monday with skies becoming partly cloudy and easterly boundary layer flow developing. The airmass will modify Monday and Tuesday with increasing L/L moisture and warmer temperatures. An U/L ridge will build over the Florida peninsula mid week with increasing large scale subsidence and temperatures returning to several degrees above normal.

A frontal boundary will approach north Florida late in the week, however the U/L ridge will initially hold firm with the front stalling across north Florida as it becomes parallel to the U/L flow. The U/L ridge will gradually give way and be suppressed to the south over the weekend with a slightly better chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm as the large scale subsidence weakens.

MARINE

Issued at 1236 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026 Hazardous boating conditions this morning with an SCA for the northern and central waters. Winds will gradually subside this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds over the waters. Relatively benign conditions expected for the upcoming week as high pressure holds over the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 82 67 87 69 / 10 10 0 10 FMY 82 68 87 69 / 60 40 20 20 GIF 82 65 86 66 / 10 10 10 0 SRQ 81 66 87 67 / 20 10 10 20 BKV 83 57 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 82 71 88 72 / 10 10 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.