textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 214 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the next week.
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop each afternoon this week, with the highest rain chances generally over the interior.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Strong ridging to our south will keep southwesterly flow in place through much of our work week. This will result in storm chances mainly over the interior and east coast of Florida. If we see any showers on the east coast it will be during our morning hours as storms push on the coast from the Gulf. This regime will also keep our temperatures above average as the southwesterly flow will keep the wind coming off the warm Gulf waters overnight. This prevents overnight lows from dropping keeping most of us around 80 degrees when we wake up. This starts us out warmer then average in the morning, and with no rain showers in forecast, result in warmer afternoon high temperatures.
The best shot to see some rain for the west coast will be on Friday as the upper level flow switches more southeasterly for one day. However, this is short lived as winds shift southwesterly once again for the weekend.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
VFR conditions through the period with winds out of the west and southwest.
MARINE
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Not much changing through our work week. Winds will remain out of the west to southwest around to 15 knots. Best storm chances will be overnight and into the early morning hours along the land breeze boundary.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Summertime humidity and heat will continue however we are expecting dry conditions for the west coast of Florida for much of our work week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 81 91 80 / 20 10 30 20 FMY 91 79 92 78 / 20 10 20 10 GIF 94 76 94 76 / 20 10 40 10 SRQ 91 80 91 79 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 92 78 92 76 / 20 10 30 20 SPG 91 81 91 81 / 20 10 30 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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