textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather will continue into early next week. Strong gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning are likely.

- There is a medium chance, 60 percent, of a low pressure system forming in the northern Gulf over the next 48 hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to advect tropical moisture over the forecast area under deep southerly flow. The National Hurricane Center has this system tagged with a medium probability (60 percent) of developing over the next 48 hours. The main impact expected with this system across west central and southwest Florida will be periods of showers and thunderstorms today and into early next week. A few strong storms will be possible with strong gusty winds and heavy rain. Localized flooding of streets and low lying areas may occur.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist over the coastal waters attm and are lifting north on the east side of the area of low pressure. A few storms were also occurring over the interior. Shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in areal coverage during the late night hours over the coastal waters and will advect locally onshore. Training of cells is possible, which could lead to isolated higher rainfall totals/flooding. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall along the immediate west coast of Florida through Sunday night. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur across the CWA today with the highest pops along the coast.

Not much change for Sunday night as shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in areal coverage over the coastal waters after midnight and will again advect locally onshore in the persistent deep southerly flow. The forecast for Monday is a bit more complex as much depends on the eventual movement/strength of the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf. The area of low pressure is expected at some point to retrograde (move west or northwest) away from the region. The eastern edge of the shower and thunderstorm activity will eventually move offshore and gradually away from the region. The actual timing of that remains in doubt...but looks like it will occur late Monday or Monday night.

Some drier air aloft is expected to advect over the forecast area by mid week which should decrease the areal coverage of afternoon showers/storms through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 VFR CIGs will persist at terminals through the remainder of the night...although some clearing is possible late over the interior. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the coastal waters are expected to move locally onshore overnight, potentially impacting PIE/RSW/SRQ/PGD/FMY/RSW with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs, with the best chance at PIE and SRQ. More widespread shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to develop after sunrise and may impact terminals at some point throughout the day with MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 1233 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 An area of low pressure has become a bit better defined over the eastern Gulf. The gradient is expected to tighten over the northern and central waters today and tonight with winds increasing to advisory levels. Winds are expected to subside late Tuesday and Tuesday night as the area of low pressure moves away from the waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Abundant low level moisture will hold over the region through the weekend which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 86 79 90 81 / 60 50 70 30 FMY 89 79 92 79 / 60 40 50 20 GIF 92 76 94 78 / 60 20 40 10 SRQ 86 79 91 79 / 70 60 70 40 BKV 87 74 92 75 / 60 40 70 20 SPG 86 79 89 81 / 70 60 70 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.