textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland and then more along outflow boundaries into this evening. The best coverage still looks to be around and just east of the I-75 corridor late this afternoon into this evening. Convection will wind down later this evening with fair dry weather overnight into Thursday morning. Overall pattern looks similar for Thursday and Friday as the upper level low lingers east of Florida and the low level east to southeast flow persists.

Over the weekend and into early next week upper level ridging will build over the Florida peninsula with the low level east to southeast flow continuing. There will still be plenty of moisture combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes to cause more scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible this afternoon and evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with east to southeast at 7 to 11 knots, except shifting to westerly at TPA, PIE, and SRQ as the bay/sea breezes develop. The east to southeast flow at 3 to 6 knots will setup later this evening and overnight. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Winds overall will remain out of the east to southeast through the weekend with speeds below cautionary levels. The flow has diminished enough that the west coast sea breeze will develop each afternoon shifting winds to westerly. The main hazard will continue to be afternoon and evening thunderstorms that move off of land and some of these storms could cause locally strong gusty winds and hazardous seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next several days with sustained winds less than 15 mph. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 75 91 77 92 / 40 20 20 30 FMY 73 93 75 94 / 60 40 20 50 GIF 72 92 74 93 / 40 30 10 40 SRQ 73 91 75 92 / 40 20 10 30 BKV 70 93 73 94 / 30 30 20 30 SPG 76 92 77 93 / 30 20 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.