textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warm to above normal conditions Friday through early next week.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

An upper/mid level trough is digging into the Mid-Atlantic coast today, pushing away the stalled frontal boundary and ushering in a drier air mass. This trough will eject northeast Friday through the weekend, allowing broad upper level ridging to setup over Florida and the western Atlantic by early next week. At the surface, high pressure will fill in from the north Friday and settle in northeast of Florida during the weekend, favoring east and southeast flow through the first half of next week. This southeast flow will gradually advect in greater moisture, leading to building rain chances.

For Friday and Saturday, weaker flow will allow the west coast sea breeze to advance inland, with the highest rain chances over the interior of central and southwest Florida during the afternoon and early evening hours. Sunday through early next week, stronger east/southeast flow will keep the west coast sea breeze pinned close to the coast, with the greatest rain chances along and just east of Interstate 75 from around the Tampa Bay south.

Apart from the rain chances, temperatures will also increase under the effects of the ridging Friday and Saturday, producing highs generally in the low to mid 90s during the weekend and early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Some patchy stratus is causing periods of MVFR ceilings this morning and will continue to threaten area terminals through around 15z, possibly dropping to IFR levels at times. Generally VFR conditions should hold after that, although a few isolated showers cannot be completely ruled out through the rest of the day.

MARINE

Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Surface high pressure will build in from the north through the rest of the week as the recent frontal boundary pushes south, with a relatively tight pressure gradient this afternoon and evening bringing wind speeds up to around Small Craft Exercise Caution levels. By this weekend, east and southeast flow will establish, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Winds will generally remain below headline thresholds, but thunderstorms could shift offshore during the late afternoon and evening hours causing locally higher winds and rough seas, mainly on Sunday and Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

High pressure will build into Florida from the north today and Friday, with drier air filling into the region. Critically low relative humidity is expected Friday afternoon, mainly from around the Tampa Bay north through the Nature Coast counties, however wind speeds will not be high enough to cause Red Flag conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 70 90 75 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 91 71 94 73 / 0 0 20 10 GIF 89 67 91 72 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 87 70 90 73 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 87 62 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 88 73 91 76 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.