textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a high probability of early morning dense fog each day through Sunday. Fog will impact both land areas as well as coastal waters.

- Above normal temperatures and humidity continue until Sunday.

- Cooler weather will return early next week as a cold front moves through. An additional front is forecast to move through late next week to keep conditions cooler than they have been.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Flat, zonal flow continues across the E CONUS with ridging over the southern Gulf. High pressure remains in control at the surface, with the center of the high just off the FL East Coast just north of the Bahamas. In response, a very light ESE flow has setup across the FL peninsula today. While subtle, it does reflect a difference in conditions today when compared to yesterday.

This subtle difference is enough to potentially have an impact on the primary hazard tonight: fog. It won't be enough to stop formation, but it could be enough to favor later development, and perhaps reduce the overall coverage and/or the intensity. The potential for fog formation will decrease the closer one gets to the coast, especially early in the night. If a couple knots of wind remains just off the surface, however, this would favor fog being pushed to the coast - and potentially out over coastal waters - closer to morning. This is a signal in guidance that has been assessed to be legitimate. So ultimately, everyone should be expecting a period of fog once again tomorrow morning and should plan accordingly.

There are a couple more days yet where a similar scenario will play out. The next front does not arrive until sometime on Sunday when an upper-level trough propagating across the E CONUS pulls an attendant cold front through Florida. This is the catalyst we need to break the current pattern.

Just ahead of the front, the winds will begin to increase and there will be a window for some storms to develop and move through. Right now, the probabilities continue to look extremely low (too low for mention). However, the are environmental indicators associated with this system that suggest some storms could develop. That trend will be monitored over the next couple days.

Behind the front, a significantly cooler and drier airmass will filter into the area. Monday and Tuesday mornings are likely to the coldest for the first half of the week. However, the pattern stays amplified, and that suggests another storm system may arrive near the end of the week and potentially reverse any gradual warming taking place through the week. It also will lead to another potential period of stormier weather across the region as the weekend approaches.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 154 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

The main aviation concern through Sunday morning will continue to be overnight and early morning fog. With the winds shifted slightly to the ESE, the overall confidence in impacts at specific terminals is slightly lower for tomorrow morning when compared to the last few days. However, there is still a window from around 08Z to 15Z when fog could occur at any terminal before eroding by late morning. Similarly, fog is again in the forecast for subsequent nights to come until the next cold front arrives on Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 154 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Sea fog continues to be the main marine hazard into the weekend, with the potential for some patches to be present at really anytime day or night across northern Gulf waters. The most impactful time- frame, however, will generally be after midnight through about 10AM each day, with the window for Friday morning looking more like 4AM to 10AM due to a light easterly flow. Once the next front arrives on Sunday, the sea fog threat will diminish significantly. However, winds and seas will increase. There will also be a period where storms may develop across coastal waters as well. Conditions gradually improve early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 154 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

With RH values continuing to remain high and winds staying light, there are no concerns for red flag conditions through the weekend. However, fog is likely to develop each night and will linger through mid-morning. Any residual smoke may mix with fog to create near zero visibility in the vicinity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 82 65 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 84 64 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 82 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 82 63 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 82 57 84 56 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 79 67 81 67 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.