textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Near-normal temperatures for the next several days. - The next cold front will be late this week into next weekend, bringing some cooler conditions.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 The pattern aloft this afternoon features low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes with a weak shortwave to its south and ridging being flattened south of Florida. At the surface, a cold front is currently moving over the peninsula with high pressure on its heels. This high will hold over the area through Tuesday, with not much in the way of a cool-down, but there will be some drier air making it feel nicer outside. By Wednesday, the pattern will start to amplify as longwave troughing shifts eastward into the center of the country and we get an increase in moisture over the local area ahead of the next front. It doesn't look like this will lead to much in the way of rain chances, but it will increase our humidity a bit ahead of the boundary. The front will then move through late Thursday into Friday, bringing a line of showers and a few storms with it. It does look like we'll get a cool-down with t his next boundary, but how much of one remains to be seen and will depend on how deep the trough ends up being. Either way, it does look like we'll get some cooler conditions for a few days.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 231 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
MARINE
Issued at 231 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 A frontal boundary is moving across the region today, with little to no rainfall expected. Winds will remain generally northerly through Monday, becoming more northeast for mid-week. Wind speeds remain below headlines until the end of the week when another front moves through the area, bringing a few showers and storms along with increasing winds and seas.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 231 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 A frontal boundary will move through the area today, bringing relatively drier air for the region through the next few days. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, however, with no fire weather concerns.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 61 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 67 84 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 60 83 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 55 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 65 78 66 81 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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