textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, but a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the morning hours Thursday through Sunday.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees are expected through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 656 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm activity. Scattered storms will develop near KLAL earlier in the afternoon, then gradually spread to coastal sites later in the afternoon/evening. Some showers or storms will linger after 00Z, then quiet conditions are expected overnight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Strong upper level ridging will remain over the eastern U.S. into Friday with some shortwave energy drifting west around the base of the ridge. The weakening boundary will wash out over the region today with an easterly flow across the area. The deepest moisture will extend from around the I-4 corridor south and with the easterly flow the highest rain chances will be along the coastal counties from around Tampa Bay southward. Thursday looks similar to today with the deep moisture still from around the I-4 corridor southward.

Late in the week into next week the upper level ridging will breakdown with the surface ridge shifting south and east. Therefore, Friday will be a transition day as the flow becomes southeasterly, albeit rather light. Then over the weekend a more southerly flow sets up, before shifting back to southeast early next week as the ridge axis drifts north some. Plenty of moisture will remain over the area through the period so expect to see more scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day, but cannot rule out some late night and morning convection on the coastal waters moving onshore over the weekend.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with daytime highs from the upper 80s along the coast to the mid 90s inland and overnight lows in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

MARINE

Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Pleasant boating conditions are expected through the weekend with winds generally less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less. The main concern will be showers and thunderstorms that develop or move over the waters generating locally rough seas and gusty winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Abundant moisture will keep relative humidity values above critical levels with sustained 20 foot winds less than 15 mph. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected each day which could cause gusty and erratic winds, otherwise there are no other significant fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 77 92 79 / 60 20 40 30 FMY 94 76 93 77 / 80 30 70 30 GIF 92 74 93 76 / 70 10 50 20 SRQ 93 76 93 77 / 70 40 40 30 BKV 93 72 94 73 / 50 10 30 20 SPG 93 78 93 79 / 60 30 40 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.