textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Late night/early morning low clouds and patchy fog possible through Saturday morning.

- Hazardous marine conditions developing this weekend.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

UPDATE

Issued at 810 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Surface high pressure remains across the peninsula this evening but will continue retreating S/E overnight as a cold front drops across the SE U.S. before moving across the local area on Saturday. Low clouds have been evident across the northern and central coastal waters through today into this evening although largely diminishing in coverage, however hi-res guidance does indicate potential reformation/development along coastal areas overnight with some advection inland possible through the early morning hours post sunrise, potentially leading to a few areas with visibility reductions as well. Showers have also fired up across parts of SWFL this evening as a result of boundary collisions, and will persist for a few more hours before diminishing into tonight. Mild overnight temps continue, with lows in the 60s.

Saturday's front will push across northern and central areas late morning through mid afternoon, likely keeping high temps in the lower to mid 80s, while SWFL warms into the upper 80s to around 90, potentially challenging a few record highs before late afternoon isolated shower development. Breezy to gusty northerly winds will move into the area as the front passes, with gusts to 30 to 35 mph possible during the afternoon into Saturday evening, with hazardous marine conditions developing as well with winds increasing to small craft advisory levels mid to late afternoon and persisting into Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Broad upper ridging holds over the Gulf while weak surface high pressure in the W Atlantic stretches back over the state keeping the atmosphere fairly stable for only isolated PoPs this afternoon and evening.

A weak and mainly dry cold front will move thru the Florida Peninsula Saturday and Saturday night with low chances of showers or a few thunderstorms most areas with higher PoPs over SW and S zones. High pressure building into the region behind the front will increase the pressure gradient to produce occasionally breezy northeast winds Saturday night and Sunday. The front is expected to stall over S FL Sunday through Monday with some overrunning near the front with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly south of I-4 on both Sunday and Monday. Drier air aloft will advect over the forecast area by mid week which will decrease the chance of rain.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal until the front moves through, then only expect temps to be around normal values thru Monday then a slow warming trend the rest of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Early evening VCSH for SWFL terminals resulting from local sea breeze and outflow collisions gradually diminishing by late evening. Potential for MVFR/LCL IFR cigs overnight, however guidance generally keeps chances below 50%, therefore excluded mention this cycle and maintained SCT010 for the overnight period. Frontal boundary dropping south across the area on Saturday will be accompanied by increasing winds in its wake, as high as 10-20 knots late afternoon into evening with higher gusts for WCFL terminals, increasing later in the evening across SWFL terminals along with VCSH expected.

MARINE

Weak high pressure over the waters through early Saturday with relatively benign conditions. A cold front will push across the waters Saturday and Saturday night with winds becoming strong and gusty from the N-NE. Advisory level winds will be likely in the wake of the front Saturday night and Sunday. Winds and seas will begin to subside Sunday night and will drop below cautionary levels by early Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and humid conditions continue into the weekend. A weak cold front will push across the area late Saturday and Saturday night. A slightly drier and cooler airmass will build into the region behind the front with occasionaly gusty northeast winds through the weekend with locally high dispersion values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 66 86 65 81 / 0 0 10 20 FMY 66 88 67 83 / 10 20 20 40 GIF 64 86 65 79 / 10 20 20 30 SRQ 65 86 66 83 / 0 10 10 30 BKV 58 85 59 80 / 0 0 10 10 SPG 69 85 69 82 / 0 0 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.