textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Fair, warm, and dry conditions expected Wednesday.

- A few showers will be possible over the Nature Coast Thursday, then much better rain chances across the entire region late Saturday through Sunday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A warm dry day across the region with winds light enough to allow the sea breeze to move inland to around the I-75 corridor. Easterly push is moving westward at this time and will shift winds back to east to southeast across the entire area by later this evening and overnight. Some more low clouds and patchy fog will be possible later tonight into early Wednesday morning, with best chances north of I-4. Then for the remainder of Wednesday it looks to be another partly to mostly sunny, warm, and dry day with temperatures climbing a few degrees above normal over inland areas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Some areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning mainly north of the Interstate 4 corridor, and some of these clouds could affect LAL. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds will become east to southeast at 4 to 7 knots later this evening and overnight at all TAF sites, then shift to southwest by midday Wednesday and increase to around 10 knots.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

High pressure centered over the southeast is keeping conditions warm and mostly dry over Florida today and tomorrow. By Thursday, a weak frontal boundary will move into northern Florida and stall till the end of the week. This will lead to increased rain chances, especially for the Nature Coast Thursday and Friday. Temperatures through the remainder of the week will remain above normal, as this frontal boundary fails to move further south into the area. However, over the weekend a stronger frontal boundary is expected to dip down into Florida. This boundary is expected to bring some much needed rain to the area starting with the Nature Coast Saturday then spreading south Saturday night into Sunday. Rain chances remain, though decrease Sunday night into Monday as the front lingers over South Florida. Temperatures will begin to drop below normal on Sunday as the front moves out of the area. Unfortunately, after a chilly morning on Monday temperatures are expected to return to near normal that afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

East to southeast winds remain for the next few days with a shift to onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. A weak cold front approaches the waters Thursday, shifting winds to a more west to southwest direction. A stronger cold front approaches Saturday, increasing winds and seas, as well as the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Cautionary to advisory level conditions are expected over the weekend as the front moves through the waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

High pressure holds over the area keeping conditions dry and warm. RH values will be near critical levels through the remainder of the week, especially inland. Wind speeds will remain below Red Flag Conditions. Moisture increases this weekend as a frontal boundary pushes through bringing much needed rain to the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 70 87 72 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 91 69 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 90 67 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 87 68 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 91 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 88 74 85 75 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.