textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight rain chances on Thursday...higher rain chances Sunday into Monday.

- Late night and early morning fog will be possible for the next several days.

- Sea fog will be possible from around Tampa Bay north through the morning hours today, and again over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 A weak frontal boundary will sink south across the Florida peninsula today with a slight chance of showers. The front will stall over south Florida tonight and will gradually dissipate on Friday. High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will build over the forecast area in the wake of the front. Little change in the overall airmass, however dew points will drop a bit across the nature coast. This will maintain favorable conditions for late night/early morning fog across west central and southwest Florida into the weekend, which may be locally dense. Temperatures will also run above climatic normals each day through the weekend. Onshore boundary layer flow today will shift to the north/northeast Thursday night and Friday behind the front...then to the east Friday night...and to the south/southeast on Saturday as the center of high pressure moves off the mid Atlantic coast.

A southern stream disturbance will move across the southeast U.S. and Florida peninsula Sunday and Monday with numerous to widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms pushing across the forecast area. High pressure will build back over the region in the wake of this system with slightly cooler drier air moving over the area...but temperatures will run near climatic normals...with a gradual warm up mid week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 Areas of fog will develop through the early morning hours and may be locally dense with areas of IFR CIGs/VSBYs...and LCL LIFR CIGs/VSBYs. Fog will lift by mid morning, but VFR CIGs will likely persist for much of the day at TPA/PIE/LAL, with LCL MVFR CIGs mainly during the late morning/early afternoon. Skies are expected to become partly cloudy elsewhere with VFR conditions prevailing.

MARINE

Issued at 1220 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through Saturday with relatively light winds and seas. The main hazard for this morning and again possibly Saturday night/Sunday morning will be for areas of sea fog, which may be locally dense mainly from the Tampa Bay area and north. An area of low pressure and associated cold front will push across the waters Sunday and Monday with widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Winds will increase to SCEC or SCA levels. High pressure will build over the waters Tuesday and Wednesday with winds and seas subsiding.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days to keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 75 58 76 57 / 20 0 10 0 FMY 78 58 79 58 / 10 10 0 0 GIF 77 57 78 55 / 30 10 10 0 SRQ 73 57 74 56 / 20 10 0 0 BKV 76 48 77 47 / 30 0 10 0 SPG 74 59 75 59 / 20 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.