textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly in the afternoon to early evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Our summertime convection looks to be getting starting for the early part of the week with increase moisture and an active seabreeze. Our flow will generally be out of the east through Wednesday. This will favor west coast showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours with inland area mainly staying dry.

As we head into Thursday and Friday we will see an upper level low move into the northern Bahamas. The first thought would be this will increase shower chances. However the low actually shifts our upper level winds more northerly bringing a little bit of drier air and keeping storms chances pretty limited (20 to 30%). The only exception with be Southwest Florida where we still keep some high moisture along with high storm chances.

As we head into t upper level flow switches to the southeast and the weekend moisture comes back with PW reaching around 1.75. This will allow for scattered showers and storms with the highest chances still along the west coast. However, the higher PW will still bring some storms in inland locations mainly in the afternoon hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Newest hi res model guidance showing moisture increasing slightly along the west coast this afternoon. Because of this we have introduced a prob30 group for both TPA and PIE. Sites south of that will be seeing a VCTS as storm chances will be higher the farther south you go. Winds will be out the east with occasional gusts up to 20 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Winds will be mainly out of the east for much of the week around 5 to 15 knots with winds shifting southeast on Friday. Our main concern to boaters will be afternoon and evening storms that push off of land and and into the Gulf. Some of these storms could cause frequent lightning and strong winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Increased moisture with summertime convection will help to minimize fire hazards this week. Highest rainfall totals during this week should be along the coast with inland areas staying mostly dry.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 75 91 74 / 30 30 60 20 FMY 93 74 93 74 / 60 10 60 10 GIF 92 73 91 72 / 20 0 30 10 SRQ 93 73 93 73 / 50 30 70 20 BKV 94 70 94 69 / 20 10 40 10 SPG 94 75 94 75 / 40 30 70 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.