textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the week. - Below normal rain chances and coverage continue into Tuesday, then moisture increases from north to south with rain chances closer to normal mid to late week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)

Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

It is already fairly warm with temperatures across the Peninsula ranging from the mid to 70s inland to low to mid 80s near the coast. Upper level ridge remains across the Gulf and south Florida. This will keep drier air south of I-4 and SWFL. As a result, the highest rain chances today will be over the interior and the East Coast. In addition, this will also support dangerous heat, which prompted the issuance of another Heat Advisory through 7PM this evening. Residents and visitors should remain hydrated and take frequent breaks if planning to spend time outdoors. Today will likely be the warmest day for the week. Afternoon temperatures could hit record levels, especially over interior locations. Heat indices will get up to 112 degrees.

On Wednesday, the ridge begins to weaken as an U/L disturbance pushes into the Southeast. Moisture increases gradually from north to south and onshore flow remains allowing higher rain chances near the coast overnight/early and pushing inland/east into the afternoon and evening. Increasing clouds will help temperatures a few degrees lower.

LONG TERM (THU-MON)

Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Later in the week, high pressure remains west and several disturbances attempt to make it into the area. Moisture continues to increase and rain chances remain area-wide with onshore flow prevailing. The slightly lower temperatures may keep us just below advisory criteria, but it will still feel very uncomfortable. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s through the rest of the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions with westerly winds prevailing. A non-zero chance for showers near TPA/PIE. LAL will have the highest chances as most of the activity if any will be over interior locations.

MARINE

Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Mostly benign boating conditions with mostly westerly flow to 5 to 10 knots through the period. The main weather concern for mariners will be the overnight to early convection possible, especially after Wednesday and through the rest of the week. Locally higher winds and seas likely in/near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

High pressure continues to be in control with warm and humid conditions expected through the period with minimal fire concerns. Moisture increase gradually through the week and along with it chances of showers and storms. MOst of it today should stay north of the I-4, but coverage will increase through the week. The main concern will be the heat.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 82 92 81 / 20 30 60 30 FMY 96 79 96 79 / 0 10 30 20 GIF 98 79 96 78 / 30 20 70 20 SRQ 93 80 93 79 / 10 20 40 30 BKV 94 78 93 76 / 30 40 70 30 SPG 93 81 92 82 / 10 20 50 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.