textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast during the morning hours and will push inland during the afternoon and evening for the next few days.
- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) VFR condition continue and mostly rain-free through tonight. Then SCT SHRA and ISOLD TSRA in E Gulf around 12Z moving ashore with brief MVRF conditions in stronger cells thru around 16Z before moving inland around 18Z.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
We are seeing onshore south-southwest flow as high pressure ridges westward across south Florida and into the central Gulf. This onshore flow combined with continued abundant moisture has led to scattered showers and storms along the coastline this morning. Coverage will increase to scattered to numerous this afternoon and evening as they traverse eastward over the interior. Not a lot of change expected in the weather pattern through the middle of next week.
By Wednesday, high pressure remains over south Florida and a south- southwest onshore shore will prevail, but some slightly drier air with PWAT values around 1.7-2.0 inches will move over the region. This is still abundant moisture for daily showers and storms, but may slightly decrease chances down to around 20-40 percent from Wednesday through the end of next week. Near seasonal temps in the low to mid 90s continue with heat indices reaching 100-106 degrees expected each afternoon. Overnight lows remain warm and muggy in the mid to upper 70s.
MARINE
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The only marine impact expected will be some scattered showers and storms, which may produce some gusty erratic winds and rough seas. Otherwise, pleasant boating conditions expected through the weekend and into next week with winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
Hot and humid conditions continue with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than 10 mph.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 92 81 92 / 30 30 20 30 FMY 78 93 77 94 / 30 50 10 50 GIF 76 94 76 94 / 20 70 20 60 SRQ 79 92 79 93 / 30 30 20 20 BKV 75 93 75 94 / 30 40 20 30 SPG 80 91 81 92 / 30 30 30 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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