textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- The rather wet pattern will continue through the weekend and into early next week, with numerous thunderstorms developing each day. Gusty winds and localized flooding will be possible with the strongest storms.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist with highs in the lower 90s and the humidity making it will feel more like 100 to 105 degrees each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Southerly flow and deep moisture will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the best chances east of I-75, and especially from southwest Florida north across the interior. Outflow boundaries could bring some convection back toward the coast this evening, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail overnight with isolated to scattered convection developing over the coastal waters.

For Saturday the pattern won't change much so expect a similar day to today with mainly afternoon and evening convection and highest PoPs over inland areas during the mid to late afternoon and evening hours.

Sunday will start out similar again, but the south to southeast flow is expected to be rather light and then become more easterly later in the day. Plenty of moisture, precipitable water between 2.0 and 2.2 inches, is forecast to remain across the region and with daytime heating and the bay/sea breezes we'll see scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. With the flow expected to become more easterly later in the day some of the convection should move back toward the west coast.

During next week the easterly flow will gradually increase each day as high pressure builds south over the eastern states. The deep moisture should hold over the area Monday with numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the region. Then as we move through midweek some drier air filters in from the northeast. There will still be enough moisture for scattered to numerous convection each day, but the highest chances will shift to southwest Florida for Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

MVFR/occasional IFR conditions will be possible in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail. South to southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon will become light southeast later this evening and overnight, and then southeast to south at 5 to 8 knots late Saturday morning. The exception will be near any convection where gusty erratic winds are expected.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Weak high pressure will hold over the waters into early next week with winds below cautionary levels. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the overnight and morning hours, which may cause locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

No fire weather hazards are expected as abundant moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days. Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 90 78 / 40 20 50 30 FMY 92 77 92 76 / 70 30 60 30 GIF 93 76 93 76 / 70 40 60 30 SRQ 91 77 92 77 / 40 20 50 30 BKV 92 73 92 73 / 50 20 50 30 SPG 89 78 90 79 / 40 20 40 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.