textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy locally dense fog possible interior areas early this morning and again Friday night/Saturday morning.

- Increasing chance of rain late Sunday into Monday morning.

- Colder temperatures and rough marine conditions return early next week behind a cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Surface high pressure remains over the region with light east northeast boundary layer flow. Favorable set-up for late night early morning fog which may be locally dense both early this morning and again Friday night/Saturday morning as dew points are in the 50s with light east/northeast winds. The best chance for fog will be across the interior and southwest Florida.

The area of high pressure will persist into the weekend with generally partly cloudy skies and temperatures well above climatic normals with high temperatures today through Sunday in the upper 70s to the mid 80s. A slight chance of an afternoon shower on Saturday across southwest Florida.

Boundary layer winds will shift out of the south Saturday night ahead of a cold front with the potential for an area of sea fog to develop over the northern and central coastal waters. The cold front will approach north Florida late Sunday and will push across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. The sea fog will mix out as the cold front pushes south across the waters.

Increasing chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across the nature coast late Sunday ahead of the cold front. The U/L support will be lifting away from the region Sunday night, and the band of showers is expected to weaken with the areal coverage decreasing as it pushes across the central and southern forecast area...which is indicated by pops decreasing from north to south.

Strong Canadian high pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front Monday and Monday night with much colder drier air advecting back across the region on gusty north to northwest winds. Models have been more bullish with the cold air advection the last couple of runs with overnight lows Monday night dropping into the mid to upper 20s across the nature coast, with borderline hard freeze conditions. Currently indicating freezing temperatures into some inland portions of west central Florida. Apparent temperatures will likely drop below advisory level criteria across all of west central and southwest Florida Monday night. Will need to continue to monitor evolution of this cold weather outbreak over the next couple of days.

High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south on Tuesday, with freezing temperatures again possible across the nature coast Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Temperatures are expected to recover a bit on Wednesday, but will still remain well below climatic normals with high temperatures generally in the 60s.

A secondary cold front is expected to push across the forecast are Wednesday night and Thursday with a reinforcing shot of cold Canadian air advecting over the region...with sub freezing temperatures again possible across the nature coast and portions of the interior Thursday night/Friday morning.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Areas of fog/low ceilings will develop in the next several hours across portions of west central and southwest Florida, and will persist until a few hours after sunrise. LCL LIFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs will be possible for several hours, with the best chance of development over southwest Florida impacting PGD/FMY/RSW. The low clouds/fog will lift by mid morning with VFR conditions expected the remainder of the day at all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1217 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Relatively benign marine conditions today and Saturday as high pressure holds over the area. Saturday night, winds will shift to the south ahead of a cold front. The warm moist air riding over the relatively cool Gulf waters will create the potential for sea fog to develop Saturday night and Sunday mainly across the northern and central waters. The cold front will push across the waters late Sunday and Sunday night which will mix out the fog, with an increasing chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms over the northern waters, which will push southeast across the remaining waters overnight.

Strong Canadian high pressure will build over the waters in the wake of the front Monday and Monday night. Very hazardous boating conditions will develop with advisory level winds likely, and the potential for gusts to gale force will also be possible. Winds and seas will gradually subside Tuesday and Tuesday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1217 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected through the weekend as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 61 81 65 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 84 63 84 65 / 10 0 20 0 GIF 82 60 82 64 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 80 60 82 64 / 0 0 10 0 BKV 82 53 83 58 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 79 63 80 66 / 0 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.