textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of Dense Fog through mid morning, with the best chance over the coastal counties and northern/central coastal waters. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM.

- Potential for dense fog again Friday night.

- Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms possible across the area ahead of a cold front late Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 656 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Dense fog and low CIGs will impact all terminals with LIFR conditions through mid morning. Conditions improve by mid morning with VFR conditions expected at all terminals as the fog and low clouds lift and partly cloudy skies develop for the remainder of the day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 Another night of widespread dense fog which is currently located over the coastal counties from Citrus county to Sarasota county... including the adjacent coastal waters. A boundary that pushed in from the northeast earlier this evening did little in the way of mixing out the fog layer...which has set in for the remainder of the night and early morning hours. Areas of fog and low clouds are expected to also develop over interior and southwest Florida over the next several hours. A dense fog advisory is currently in effect until 10 AM for portions of the area.

The fog is expected to lift around mid morning with skies becoming partly cloudy across the area. High pressure will remain over the region with continue mild temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Boundary layer winds will shift to the east Friday night with areas of fog developing again during the overnight hours and lifting by mid morning Saturday.

The area of high pressure will shift east of the Florida peninsula on Saturday which will cause boundary layer winds to veer to the southeast. This will advect slightly warmer more humid air over the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front.

A southern stream disturbance and associated frontal boundary will move across the southeast U.S. and Florida peninsula late Sunday through Monday with numerous to widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. High pressure will build back over the region in the wake of this system with slightly cooler drier air briefly moving over the area...but temperatures will only drop back to near climatic normals for a day. A strong U/L ridge will build over the Florida peninsula by mid week with temperatures climbing back several degrees above climatic normals.

MARINE

Issued at 1224 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 Widespread dense fog will persist across the northern/central waters through mid morning...and could possibly linger into the afternoon hours. As boundary layer winds shift to the east Friday night, this should act to push the fog bank gradually west. However, winds will veer southeast Saturday night ahead of a cold front and this could cause the sea fog to redevelop over the waters due to the warm moist air riding over the relatively cooler shelf waters.

An area of low pressure and associated cold front will push across the waters late Sunday and Monday with widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Winds will increase to SCEC or SCA levels. High pressure will build over the waters late Tuesday and Wednesday with winds and seas subsiding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 56 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 79 57 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 79 55 80 61 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 75 55 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 78 45 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 75 58 78 63 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.