textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat impacts remain high to extreme across portions of the Nature Coast today as feels like temperatures approach 110 degrees.

- Increased threat for locally heavy rain Thursday through the weekend with potential for localized flooding, especially across the nature coast.

- Increasing onshore winds will lead to higher seas across coastal waters and a high risk of rip currents at area beaches for the next several days.

UPDATE

Issued at 805 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The breezy westerly flow will persist and with plenty of moisture we'll continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms move across the region today. The convection will wind down this evening, but cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm here and there before more scattered convection develops over the coastal waters moving onshore affecting mainly areas from around Tampa Bay northward later tonight into Thursday morning. Have tweaked rain chances and timing some for today, but overall the forecast remains on track.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 805 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the TAF sites today causing some MVFR/brief IFR conditions. Convection will wind down this evening, then more scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop over the coastal waters and begin moving onshore late tonight possibly affecting TPA, PIE, and SRQ, then all TAF sites mid-morning Thursday onward. Westerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots this morning, diminish to 5 to 10 knots later this evening and overnight, then increase back to 10 to 15 knots by mid-morning Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Another hot day across the northern nature coast with high temperatures on Wednesday in the mid 90s with heat indices around 110. A frontal boundary will approach north Florida late today and will stall across north central Florida tonight and Thursday. This will increase the areal coverage of showers/thunderstorms across the nature coast with a risk for locally heavy rain beginning late tonight and Thursday. It will also act to increase west/southwest boundary layer flow across the forecast area. The increased onshore winds will create a high risk of rip currents along area beaches today through Friday.

The frontal boundary will remain quasi-stationary across north central Florida on Friday, with a reinforcing frontal boundary pushing across the southeast U.S. on Saturday, then stalling across north central Florida on Sunday.

Deep tropical moisture with PCPW values AOA 2 inches will persist for the next several days. Numerous to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur each day/night from Thursday through Sunday...with highest pops north of Tampa in the vcnty of the stalled frontal boundary. As daily rainfall totals mount across the nature coast through the weekend, the flood threat will likely increase a bit each day as soil conditions become highly saturated.

Early next week, some drier air aloft may try to work its way over the forecast area which would decrease areal coverage of mainly afternoon showers/storms.

MARINE

Issued at 1243 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms will occur each night for the next several days, with areal coverage decreasing during the afternoon hours...except possibly across the northern waters late in the week and over the weekend due to a frontal boundary in the area. Winds will increase to cautionary levels across portions of the waters today, and will remain elevated through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1243 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 81 90 79 / 50 50 70 60 FMY 92 80 92 79 / 40 20 20 20 GIF 94 79 92 77 / 50 50 70 40 SRQ 91 80 91 79 / 40 50 60 50 BKV 93 78 91 75 / 50 60 70 70 SPG 90 82 89 81 / 40 50 70 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy- Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.