textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 820 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms. A few storms may be strong with damaging wind gusts and hail.

- A summertime pattern will continue through mid week. Potential for some drier air by late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 An U/L low will remain quasi-stationary over the eastern Gulf today. An associated pocket of cold air aloft will persist over the forecast area. This will enhance convective instability and the risk for damaging wind gusts and possibly hail with stronger storms. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across west central and southwest Florida during the afternoon hours, although it could be a bit earlier in the day over southwest Florida. An isolated severe storm can't be ruled out mainly during the mid/late afternoon hours. PCPW values will remain around 2 inches. Slow moving storms will create the risk for localized flooding of urban and poor drainage areas. Bumped up pops today as guidance appeared a bit low.

The U/L low will drift back over the Florida peninsula on Monday. Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region once again with a few stronger storms possible. There will continue to be the potential for slow moving storms and locally heavy rain/flooding.

An U/L disturbance and associated S/W trough will dig across the Ohio River Valley Tuesday and Wednesday which will lift the U/L low over the peninsula northeast and will finally be absorbed into the northern stream flow as the U/L trough moves to the eastern seaboard late Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers/storms are expected across west central and southwest Florida each day.

An U/L ridge will build over the Lower Mississippi Valley and will extend across the Florida peninsula on Thursday decreasing pops a bit...but a retrograding pattern will develop with the U/L ridge slowly pushing west and a rex block briefly developing over the northeast and mid Atlantic coast...which will induce U/L troughing to develop over Florida. As the overall U/L pattern amplifies a bit, this may be enough for drier air surface and aloft to advect over the forecast area down the backside of the ridge in northwest flow surface and aloft. Dew points could drop below 70 in many areas by the end of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 820 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Storms along the I-4 corridor will once again mainly be in the evening hours thanks to easterly flow aloft. SW Florida will be have more of a southerly flow so timing of storms will be the late afternoon and evening hours. VFR conditions and light winds expected outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 1232 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the weekend and into early next week with winds and seas below cautionary levels. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1232 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 75 89 76 / 60 30 60 40 FMY 89 74 89 75 / 60 30 70 50 GIF 90 73 90 74 / 60 20 70 30 SRQ 89 74 89 75 / 60 30 60 50 BKV 90 71 91 72 / 50 30 70 40 SPG 88 76 88 77 / 60 30 50 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.