textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will spread south across the area today and Saturday night, with a few strong or severe thunderstorms possible.

- Winds will increase today creating hazardous boating conditions over the coastal waters and a high risk of rip currents along area beaches.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through today, then a cold front will bring milder temperatures on Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 923 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Scattered shower activity continues to push eastward across southern portions of the forecast area as a cold front moves into south Florida tonight. Shower activity will continue to linger overnight in SWFL and southern interior areas but the remainder of the area will be dry as high pressure in the lower MS Valley brings drier air into the region. Other than some minor adjustments to PoPs based on latest radar trends, the reminder of the forecast remains on track with overnight lows cooler than last night with 50s across the Nature Coast and 60s for most of the remainder of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Showers and storms are already moving into the Nature Coast area as a frontal boundary approaches the Florida peninsula. These showers and storms will spread south and east through the day, with some strong to severe storms possible. A Slight to Marginal Risk for severe storms is possible today, with some of the stronger storms possibly producing some damaging winds, tornadoes and some hail. A Tornado Watch is also in effect for parts of the Nature Coast and west central Florida through 6 pm. The latest HRRR guidance has these storms moving through the Nature Coast between 11 am to 3 pm, Tampa Bay and central Florida from 3 pm to 7 pm, then southwest Florida from 6 pm to 10 pm. Some residual showers and cloudiness will stick around overnight, but the threat of strong to severe storms will diminish overnight.

The front will stall over southern Florida keeping a chance of showers and a stray storm in the forecast for southwest Florida on Sunday. By Monday morning, the front will dissipate over south Florida as high pressure builds into the area from the north. This will produce mostly rain-free conditions for the first half of next week. A weak front will move through the southeast U.S. and across northern Florida on Thursday and Friday producing a chance of showers and a stray storm, with the highest chances over the northeast Gulf and Nature Coast.

Warm and muggy conditions with temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s expected during the afternoon today, then cooling down on Monday and Tuesday into the low to mid 80s. Then above average temps expected to return Tuesday through the end of next week. Overnight lows will be mild in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 806 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

MVFR CIGs and scattered SHRA this evening will gradually clear from north to south across most of the area by Sunday morning, though low clouds and additional shower activity will continue to linger into tomorrow at SWFL terminals. VCTS activity will also be possible in SWFL in the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, which could lead to occasional VSBY restrictions at times, particularly during periods of heavier precipitation but VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the area.

MARINE

Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Increasing southwest winds ahead of a frontal boundary will create Small Craft Advisory conditions today through early Sunday morning across the northern and central waters. Some strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening hours as the front pushes through the eastern gulf waters. Some damaging winds and waterspouts may be possible. Winds will shift to the north and northeast in the wake of the front early Sunday morning. A period of Exercise Caution level winds will be possible over the southern waters late tonight and early Sunday. Winds and seas will subside into early next week as high pressure builds back over the waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

A cold front moves through the area today producing a good chance of showers and storms. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds, heavy downpours, isolated tornadoes and possible hail. A chance of rain will stick around through Sunday, especially over southwest Florida. RH values will remain above critical levels today, but gusty winds will produce some high dispersions today. Some dry air will filter into the region on Sunday and Monday with some critical RH values possible north of Tampa Bay along the interior counties along the Nature Coast. The winds will decrease on Sunday and Monday, precluding the need for a Red Flag Warning. Rain-free and warming conditions expected for most of next week until Thursday when a weak front moves across northern Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 65 84 67 87 / 30 10 10 0 FMY 70 82 67 87 / 80 50 40 20 GIF 65 82 64 86 / 30 10 10 10 SRQ 65 82 66 88 / 40 20 20 10 BKV 57 84 56 88 / 20 0 0 0 SPG 70 84 71 88 / 30 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.