textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- A prolonged and significant cooldown will persist through early next week, with temps as much as 10-20 degrees below normal despite a brief warm up on Saturday.

- A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory remain in effect through 9 AM this morning. Protect sensitive vegetation and exposed outdoor pipes, dress appropriately, and know the signs of hypothermia.

- A cold front moving through on Sunday will bring breezy winds and hazardous marine conditions followed by a reinforcing bout of similarly cold temps early next week, with another round of Freeze/Frost/Cold Weather products likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Hopefully everyone has thawed out after this morning's chilly start. Though the day has been full of sunshine and dry conditions, temperatures are still quite cool with most people still in the low 50s. Luckily the gusty winds of yesterday are gone, replaced with a light and variable breeze. Tonight, temperatures will dip back into the upper 30s to mid 40s with patchy frost possible, especially for northern counties like Levy, Citrus, Hernando and Sumter. Tomorrow temperatures warm up nicely into the low to mid 70s. However, don't put your coats away just yet. Another cold front takes aim at Florida Saturday into Sunday. Some showers are possible as the front approaches and once again, behind the front, cold, dry air pushes in. Next week will start out with temperatures in the 20s and 30s. The cool temperatures stick around the beginning of next week and will gradually moderate by mid week. By Friday, the 80s return to the forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail throughout the period. A slight sea breeze could develop this afternoon, mainly impacting TPA, PIE and SRQ. Light and variable winds expected overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1246 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Marine conditions have settled after yesterday's gusty winds and will remain benign the rest of today into tomorrow. Saturday night into Sunday morning another cold front will move over the waters, increasing winds to advisory levels once again. Winds will come down from advisory levels to more borderline cautionary levels to begin the week and remain elevated through the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1246 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Below critical RH levels today will increase fire weather dangers. However winds will remain light and variable through the day. Moisture increases tomorrow, limiting any fire weather issues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 46 72 55 65 / 0 0 20 60 FMY 48 76 57 73 / 0 0 10 20 GIF 44 74 53 67 / 0 0 10 40 SRQ 45 72 54 69 / 0 0 20 50 BKV 35 73 46 62 / 0 0 30 60 SPG 51 72 58 66 / 0 0 20 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.