textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 233 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Increased shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend before decreasing early next week.

- Daily heat index values of 105+ degrees continue areawide.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)

Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

High pressure ridge remains over the Gulf and across central and southern portions of the peninsula while trough and associated boundary stretches north. This will keep westerly winds in place today and Sunday. PWAT values are just below 2 in., there is plenty of instability to support showers and storms this afternoon and evening. The current flow regime will push convection east as the sea breeze moves inland. Similarly, if the thermodynamics come together some storms could produce strong winds and maybe some small hail this afternoon. Light flow may also produce some localized training of storms again today, especially over interior locations. High temperatures once again will peak in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s resulting in triple digits heat indices just below criteria.

On Sunday, slightly lower moisture may limit storm coverage with the highest chances still over the interior. Similar temperatures be maybe a degree or two higher given the lowers POPs.

LONG TERM (MON-FRI)

Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Next week, the area high pressure slides north and moisture decreases slightly with the highest chances staying south of the I-4 corridor Monday and Tuesday. Moisture returns towards the end of the period with mostly light winds and the afternoon sea breeze keeping the majority of the rain away from the coast. Above normal temperature in place with highs in the mid 90s through the period. Overnight lows will also be very warm in the mid to upper 70s with coastal areas remaining around 80 degrees.

MARINE

Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Mostly benign boating conditions with mostly westerly flow to 5 to 10 knots through the period. The main weather concern for mariners will be the overnight to early convection possible, especially early next week. Locally higher winds and seas likely in/near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

High pressure continues to be in control with warm and humid conditions expected through the period and minimal fire concerns. Showers and storms become widespread over the interior today, but slightly drier conditions are anticipated early next week, particularly north of I-4, before again increasing mid to late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 92 79 94 / 10 10 0 10 FMY 78 94 78 96 / 10 20 0 20 GIF 75 94 75 96 / 20 30 0 20 SRQ 79 92 78 94 / 0 10 0 10 BKV 75 94 74 95 / 10 20 0 10 SPG 80 92 80 93 / 10 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.