textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 739 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and into early next week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

UPDATE

Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to push west from the Tampa Bay region northward across the Nature Coast for a couple hours after sunset before diminishing. Farther inland and to the south, thunderstorms have already ended for the day. With the loss of daytime heating and the now cooler temperatures thanks to earlier rain, no new development is expected through the evening.

The forecast remains on track this evening, with no major adjustments needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Our southeasterly flow will remain in place for Sunday. This will once again favor mainly evening storms along the seabreeze boundary about 10 to 20 miles away from the coast. These storms will slowly drift to the west coast as we go throughout the rest of the evening and early overnight hours.

We will not see much of change next Monday and Tuesday. The only difference is a little drier air which will allow storm chances to drop slightly. The bigger change will start on Wednesday as our upper level flow starts to switch more southwesterly in response to upper level troughing over the area. This will help to bring deep tropical moisture over the area through the end of the week and into our Saturday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

For KTPA and KPIE, VCTS will continue for a couple more hours, with temporary impacts at the field for another hour or so before storms push west. Once these storms subside, all terminals should see quiet conditions overnight and through tomorrow morning. A stronger easterly flow favors a lower chance for storms tomorrow. However, every terminal still has about a 30% chance for thunderstorms during a three-to-four window in the late afternoon/evening hours. Thunderstorms will continue to be possible each day, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours, into the foreseeable future.

MARINE

Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Not much changing through Tuesday. We will continue to see south to southeasterly winds around 5 to 15 knots. Showers and storms will develop inland in the late afternoon and push towards the coast and into the Gulf from the late evening into the early overnight hours. Upper level winds will switch to the southwest on Wednesday bringing in deep tropical moisture over the area. This will bring overnight showers and storms over the Gulf that will push towards the coast in the morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Summertime moisture with afternoon showers and storms will continue through next Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 90 77 90 / 70 50 40 50 FMY 76 94 76 93 / 40 30 20 50 GIF 75 92 76 92 / 40 30 20 40 SRQ 75 91 75 92 / 60 50 30 40 BKV 72 92 73 93 / 70 50 50 50 SPG 76 92 77 93 / 60 40 30 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.