textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Mid/upper-level ridging holds over the central Gulf this afternoon with surface high pressure to our east extending across Florida. Warm and dry conditions will continue through the first part of the weekend, then a weak boundary will move through the region late Sunday through Monday. Rain chances remain rather limited, but interior locations south of I-4 will have up to about a 30% chance of a few showers Monday afternoon, though amounts are forecast to remain on the low side. Behind the front, temperatures will drop by a couple of degrees and be closer to average through the middle part of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. There is a slightly higher chance for patchy fog Saturday morning, mainly for KLAL, but VFR is expected elsewhere through the rest of Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 High pressure east of Bermuda ridges across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters keeping light winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less over the region through the weekend. Winds will turn onshore during the afternoon/evening as the sea breeze sets up. This high pressure will also keep rain-free conditions over the Gulf waters through the weekend. A cold front moves through the region on Monday, but rainfall will be limited. Winds and seas will increase in the wake of this front as strong high pressure builds in from the north producing a tight pressure gradient over the eastern Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed starting early Monday morning and continuing through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Dry and warm conditions continue through the weekend with no Red Flag concerns. A weak frontal boundary will move through the region late Sunday through Monday, bringing a slight chance for rain Monday afternoon mainly for the interior. Dry conditions with lower relative humidity values continue into next week and increased winds on Tuesday could lead to Red Flag conditions for parts of the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 89 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 69 90 70 88 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 67 92 68 90 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 67 87 69 85 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 59 91 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 74 88 75 86 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.