textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 220 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue for the next couple days. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

- An increasingly wet pattern is expected by late-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

An upper-level ridge axis is situated to the east of the Florida peninsula while an upper-level low is situated across the Texas Gulf Coast. In between these features, southerly mid-level flow is advecting a deep moisture fetch across the FL peninsula and central Gulf Coast region. An MCS is ongoing over portions of LA, AL, and the FL panhandle in response.

Across the FL peninsula, some early-to-mid afternoon showers are ongoing. However, there is a fairly tight surface pressure gradient across the state. This means that actually sea breeze formation along the FL west coast is delayed until late in the day; and thus the greatest potential for shower and thunderstorm activity is yet to come later this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest storms are most likely to consolidate along and west of the I-75 corridor this evening. Primary threats will be heavy, rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Small hail cannot be ruled out either.

The pattern is relatively static for the next couple days. However, the pressure gradient looks to weaken a bit, which favors a slightly earlier sea breeze initiation, slower storm motions, and perhaps a larger geographic region that could see thunderstorms. Overall, though, it still looks like a SE flow will be more dominant. That is, at least until the end of the week.

By the end of the work week, an amplified upper-level pattern suppresses the ridge axis. Troughing then settles across the E CONUS and the FL peninsula, allowing a weak boundary to sink south across central FL in response. This setup will then pull deeper tropical moisture north and across the peninsula and a WSW flow will set up. This favors earlier shower and thunderstorm timing. However, the deep moisture and instability will favor a greater potential for showers and storms at nearly any time. Multiple rounds of rainfall will be possible each day through the weekend.

As the boundary slowly tries to sink farther south with the trough digging and negatively tilting over the NE, an easterly flow will return and, eventually, some drier and more stable air could settle in early next week. There is some uncertainty as to if this will actually materialize, however, given climatological trends for this time of year. The best chance resides across the N FL peninsula while SWFL is less likely to see this.

Regardless, most of the next week looks fairly typical for summer. Warm, humid conditions will continue with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Late in the week, activity will become more widespread, and potentially more frequently. Overall, this is a beneficial pattern that should help alleviate some of the drought challenges that have been impacting the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Some showers have begun to develop across the interior. However, the greatest window for impacts at terminals is yet come in over the next few hours. There is a greater potential for impacts at terminals in the Tampa Bay area, and a lower potential for impacts across the interior and SWFL. Some showers could linger until around of after midnight near the coast. A similar pattern will repeat tomorrow (and the next few days), with greater coverage and thus slightly higher confidence in impacts tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

A SSE flow will continue across coastal waters as winds remain in the 10 to 15 knot range each day. This will keep winds and seas in the 2 to 3 foot range through the week, and favors late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms over Gulf waters. Mariners should expect thunderstorms over land to move out over the waters late in the day. As the weekend approaches, deeper tropical moisture will get pulled into the region, leading to greater thunderstorm coverage and a southwesterly flow across coastal waters. They will also be possible at really any time. This will keep seas in the 2 to 3 foot range into early next week, with higher seas expected in and around thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Ample moisture will keep RH values high and favors scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. This should lead to gradual improvement for drought conditions as soils gradually replenish lost water. Some high dispersions could be possible with gusty winds, but fire weather concerns otherwise remain low through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 91 77 89 / 60 60 50 30 FMY 76 94 76 92 / 10 40 30 60 GIF 76 93 76 91 / 20 40 50 60 SRQ 75 92 75 90 / 50 50 30 30 BKV 73 93 72 91 / 60 60 60 40 SPG 77 93 77 91 / 50 50 40 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.