textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Low potential for dense sea fog over the eastern Gulf early Sunday morning.

- Slight to Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms possible across the area associated with a cold front late Sunday into Monday.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

High pressure over the Carolinas ridges southwest over Florida and into the eastern Gulf and will produce a predominant east to southeast wind flow over the region. This will result in a pleasant and warm day during the day on Saturday with above average temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A mild night is expected tonight with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Once again we are looking at the potential for some sea fog to develop over the eastern Gulf waters during the overnight hours. This will be closely monitored for the need of any Dense Fog Advisories.

By early Sunday morning, high pressure has moved off the Carolina coastline and will keep a southerly wind flow over the region. This will result in a warm and humid day on Sunday ahead of the next weather system. Farther to the west, the next big weather system will start to take shape. An area of low pressure will develop near the LA/MS border with a cold front extending south into the northwestern Gulf. This weather system will traverse eastward through the southeast U.S. on Sunday into Monday. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and this approaching cold front will produce gusty southerly winds around 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph late Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Preceding showers and storms ahead of the front will move into the eastern Gulf starting mid-morning on Sunday and will increase in coverage from northwest to southeast through the day on Sunday into Monday. SPC has placed parts of west central and southwest Florida in a Slight to Marginal Risk for severe storms with possible damaging winds and possible tornadoes ahead of and in the vicinity of this frontal passage. The timing for highest severe threat will be during the afternoon hours on Sunday.

The cold front will push south and east of Florida by Monday evening as high pressure ridges in from the north bringing clearing conditions. The good news is that a cool down is not expected behind this front with average to slightly above average temperatures continuing. High pressure will dominate the weather for Tuesday through the end of next week with rain-free and warm conditions expected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots will prevail through early Sunday morning. A cold front approaches the area on Sunday and will produce gusty southerly winds around 10-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots from late morning through the afternoon. Showers and storms can also be expected for TPA after 21Z and will fill in at the other terminals through Sunday evening. Some MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBY restrictions will be possible in these passing showers and storms.

MARINE

Issued at 130 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less will remain over the eastern Gulf waters through late Saturday evening. Once again we are looking at a low potential for some sea fog to develop over the eastern Gulf waters during the overnight hours. This will be closely monitored for the need of any Dense Fog Advisories. A slight uptick in winds and seas expected early Sunday morning to around 10-15 knots and seas building 2-3 feet. By late morning on Sunday, conditions begin to deteriorate more as a strong cold front approaches the eastern Gulf waters from the west. Hazardous winds and seas expected through the day on Sunday and into early Monday as this front moves through the area. This has warranted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. There is also a Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging gusty winds possible with frontal passage. The front moves east of Florida by late Monday evening, with clearing conditions and improving marine conditions expected. High pressure will dominate the weather for the remainder of next week with rain-free conditions, winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Rain-free and warm conditions with RH values above critical levels expected through this evening. A cold front then moves through the area on Sunday into Monday producing scattered showers and isolated storms, as well as breezy southerly winds. These breezy winds will produce high dispersions through the day on Sunday. High pressure builds back in over the area late Monday and dominates the weather most of next week with rain-free, warm conditions, light winds and RH values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 61 78 62 75 / 0 50 90 20 FMY 61 80 64 79 / 10 10 80 20 GIF 60 83 62 78 / 0 30 90 20 SRQ 59 77 61 72 / 0 30 90 20 BKV 54 81 56 76 / 0 60 90 20 SPG 64 76 65 74 / 0 50 90 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.