textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Cautionary-level marine winds evening and overnight through the remainder of the weekend.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

UPDATE

Issued at 750 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

No changes planned for the evening update. High pressure remains in control locally, with continued easterly sfc/low-level flow and subsidence aloft promoting generally stable and dry conditions with diurnally driven fair weather cumulus clouds diminishing through the evening.

A plume of smoke and related haze is currently drifting offshore coastal Manatee and Sarasota counties this evening after being advected westward across the area from a prescribed burn earlier today in NE Highlands County.

Mostly clear skies expected overnight with overnight lows again in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)

Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees across the peninsula. All sponsored by high pressure building over the region pushing lower dewpoints and keeping rain free conditions in place. This will continue to support breezy easterly winds through the weekend. Meanwhile, dry airmass remains in place with PWs from this morning's sounding well below an inch. As a result, rain has left the forecast for a while. Clear skies and enough surface moisture available could support night to morning low clouds and patchy fog. Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 60 with areas along the Nature Coast in the upper 50s.

Afternoon temperatures today will max to the mid 80s along the coast with areas over the interior barely reaching the low 80s. Copy and paste weather conditions into Sunday, except temperature along the coast climbing up into the upper 80s and low to mid 80s inland.

LONG TERM (MON-FRI)

Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

During the long term, area of high pressure remains with very warm and dry conditions in place. No rain appears in the forecast through the period contributing tot the already impactful drought. Above normal temperature expected as highs gradually increasing into the 90s by midweek, so definitely get to the beach. Winds should diminish towards the end of the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Dry VFR through the period. Early evening TEMPO MVFR vsby for HZ at SRQ stemming from FU advecting west across the terminal should improve in short order as remnants disperse. Otherwise, easterly flow continues through the period, generally below 10 knots overnight, increasing to 10-15 knots late morning through afternoon and early evening.

MARINE

Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Area of high pressure will hold over the waters for the next several days. The gradient will weaken a bit today allowing winds to subside below advisory levels, however, small craft should exercise caution as winds remain elevated through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

High pressure remains over the area through the period across fire districts. Breezy winds prevail through the weekend. Drier airmass keeps minimum humidity values close to critical along the Nature Coast by next week. A gradual warm up in temps is anticipated expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 64 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 63 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 84 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 63 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 69 86 69 88 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.