textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will increase through the rest of the week, with high temperatures running about 5-10 degrees above normal by Friday.

- There is a high chance late night and early morning fog formation each day into the weekend, along with sea fog over the coastal waters.

- Hazardous marine conditions and much cooler temperatures return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Temperatures as of early this afternoon have already climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s. This warming trend will be the main story throughout the remainder of the week. In the upper levels. broad low amplitude ridging exists across the Gulf and the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, high pressure continues to feature, but will become more centered to the east of the area out over the Atlantic. This will lead to more southerly flow today. The PW values from the 12z TBW sounding was 0.76 inches. This value is near the climatological average for mid-Februrary.

Winds will decouple overnight with high pressue in place. Surface dewpoints continue to increase with warm/moist advection. The Gulf waters are cool with water temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The combination of warm/moist air moving over cooler water will lead to fog development over the Gulf later this evening and over the land as well. Confidence in fog formation overnight is high. This fog should lift overland shortly after sunrise. Models have been hinting that the fog over the Gulf, may lingering into the late morning hours. This pattern will remain consistent through Sunday with medium to high chances for fog development each night. Temperatures will slowly climb each day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast on Friday and Saturday with high in the mid to upper 80s inland on Friday and Saturday. There is a good chance of highs reaching the 90 degree mark inland on Saturday.

A cold front will push southward across the Southeastern U.S. late Saturday as an upper level trough moves across the Tennessee River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Cyclogenesis will take place off the Carolina coast in advance of the trough. The cold front will approach the TBW CWA early Sunday morning. Any precipitation with the front will be light and the average amounts will be around a tenth of an inch. Overall, the precipitation with this system will not do anything to help with the ongoing drought across the region.

There will be a significant cool down behind the front but not like what we saw with the last system in late January and early February. Lows on Monday morning will drop down into the upper 30s across the Nature Coast to upper 40s across southwest Florida. Highs on Monday will only be in the low to mid 60s. The coldest morning will be Tuesday morning with a freeze currently forecast across the Nature Coast with upper 30s to low 40s along coast from Tampa Bay southwards. Temperatures will moderate throughout the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions currently across the terminals with winds generally from the south. The main aviation impact will be fog overnight. Model guidance continues to come in more pessimistic with flight conditions overnight into early Thursday morning. For now have IFR to LIFR conditions are forecast from roughly 08-15z. Further TAF issuances will continue to refine the timing of the fog. Fog should lift in the 14-16z timeframe giving way to VFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 112 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Atlantic high pressure ridging into the eastern Gulf will hold through the rest of the week, with southerly to southeasterly winds remaining less than headline criteria. Under this southerly flow, some areas of sea fog will be possible over the coastal waters later today and tonight. The next cold front is forecast to push into the waters on Sunday, bringing increasing chances of rain beginning Saturday night and and winds increasing to advisory levels on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Humidity increases through the rest of the week. Patchy fog is expected over the next several mornings. A cold front will bring drier and cooler air into the region early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 64 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 83 62 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 84 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 78 62 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 82 57 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 78 66 79 67 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.