textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing rain chances through the weekend. Strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are possible.

- Hot and humid summertime conditions continue with heat index values of 100 to 107 daily. Practice heat safety when spending time outdoors.

UPDATE

Issued at 837 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Convection has wound down for the most part this evening with the northwest low level flow persisting. Overnight into Friday, deeper moisture will move south into the area and this will lead to more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters later tonight moving and spreading onshore. The convection is then expected to continue to develop and move inland during the day Friday. Current forecast looks on track with no changes needed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 837 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms producing MVFR/local IFR conditions are expected to develop later tonight near the coast possibly affecting the TAF sites of TPA, PIE, and SRQ, then moving and spreading inland possibly affecting all TAF sites during the day Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with west to northwest winds diminishing to around 5 knots this evening then increasing back to around 10 knots Friday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Broad high pressure remains over the region today with northwest boundary layer winds continuing. Scattered storms seen across the forecast area this afternoon will continue to move generally east/southeast for the rest of the day. As we head into Friday, a mid-level low is forecast to form right over the state with the surface ridge axis shifting southward as a surface low also tries to develop near the area Friday night. This pattern will bring increased moisture along with higher rain chances, with some hi-res guidance suggesting we'll see coastal showers/storms starting early tomorrow morning. The rest of the day will then feature additional (and slower-moving) storms across the area as light westerly flow continues. The best chances after the coastal morning storms will generally be for inland areas as the two sea breeze circulations collide.

For the weekend into early next week, the mid-level low continues to spin over the state, eventually opening up and moving northeastward as the surface low or trough does the same. This area continues to be marked with a low (20%) chance for tropical development by the NHC and will be closely monitored. Regardless, these features will help increase moisture and rain chances across the region, with waves of showers/storms expected periodically through early/mid next week. As of now, the most likely rainfall totals through the next 7 days are 6-8 inches at the coast, tapering off as you head inland. Overall, the greatest threat for heavy rainfall looks to be Sunday through Tuesday, with more scattered storms on the other days.

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Northwest to west flow will continue over the waters through Friday. Winds will shift to southwest for the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. Winds and seas will remain below headlines until late this weekend and early next week, when winds increase to 15 to 20 knots at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Westerly flow will continue over the region for the next several days with increasing moisture keeping relative humidity values above critical levels. Deeper moisture and more numerous convection is expected for Friday through the weekend, with gusty and erratic winds and frequent lightning possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 91 78 90 / 40 60 60 80 FMY 79 92 77 91 / 20 50 50 60 GIF 76 93 74 93 / 20 70 40 90 SRQ 79 91 77 90 / 70 70 70 80 BKV 75 93 73 92 / 30 60 50 90 SPG 80 90 79 89 / 60 70 70 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.