textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for heavy rain through the weekend with localized flooding possible.

- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches into the weekend.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with dangerous lightning through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 552 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

On and off unsettled conditions will continue as boundary remains across north Florida. Most of the convection now is over the Nature Coast this evening. Though most of the activity should be done south of there at least for the next several hours, a non zero chance remain overnight and increase again during the morning on Saturday. Similar to today, on and off showers will continue but there will be a pause in convection for most areas during the afternoon and evening. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s once again with ample cloud coverage in place.

No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated over the next several hours. Then, chances of showers and storm increases near the coast during the late night/morning. There will be breaks in the activity during the day as convection pushes east. West to southwesterly winds prevail through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 88 78 86 / 40 70 70 80 FMY 78 90 77 90 / 20 40 40 50 GIF 76 90 75 88 / 10 70 50 80 SRQ 78 89 77 88 / 30 50 70 70 BKV 74 87 73 86 / 50 70 70 80 SPG 80 87 79 86 / 40 60 70 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.