textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 350 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Above normal temps with limited shower and storm chances early this week with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees in the afternoons. - Increasing shower and storm chances gradually spread northward across the area, particularly from around mid week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Ridging over the area today will favor continued warmth this afternoon with a few record highs again possible, while mostly dry conditions prevail outside of SWFL locations where a few evening showers and storms will be possible. Winds remain easterly except along the coast where the afternoon sea breeze will turn winds onshore, limiting immediate coastal highs to the lower 90s, while elsewhere highs will climb into the mid 90s with some pockets of upper 90s possible. Relative humidities look to remain around 50 percent or less during the afternoon which will likely temper max heat indices inland to around 100 degrees, while areas closer to the coast will likely peak in the 100-105 degree range given slightly moister conditions behind the sea breeze.

Tuesday-Wednesday will feature slightly cooler conditions as the ridge aloft over the area breaks down a bit as shortwave energy drops south across the state extending from a digging trough over the W Atlantic. Moisture will gradually be drawn north across the state with shower/storm chances expanding from SWFL into WCFL, with scattered to numerous showers/storms likely from around the I-4 corridor southward by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage expands across remaining areas northward on Thursday and continues into the weekend, with the timing and location of the highest chances likely shifting during the weekend as the surface ridge axis settles southward prompting flow to shift from easterly to westerly over the state.

High temps continue in the lower/mid 90s through much of the week before gradually moderating into the upper 80s/lower 90s late week into the weekend as flow becomes westerly across the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Mainly VFR through the period with easterly winds 5-10 knots, except turning onshore with the sea breeze in the afternoon through early evening along the coast. Shower potential for SWFL terminals in the evening through early overnight, however chances remain low enough to exclude mention this cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Surface ridging over the W Atlantic extending across the waters will hold through much of the week with gradually increasing moisture and associated showers/storms spreading northward across the waters. Winds remain easterly much of the week while turning onshore in the afternoon near the coast with the sea breeze, then become more southerly late in the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Limited fire concerns expected through the period. Few hours of near-critical RHs this afternoon mainly across Nature Coast and WCFL locations, however winds should remain below 15 mph. Moisture continues to increase over the area during the week further limiting fire concerns, with shower and storm chances increasing and spreading northward across the peninsula.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 77 92 78 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 95 77 94 76 / 10 30 30 20 GIF 94 73 92 74 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 94 76 93 77 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 95 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 95 78 93 78 / 0 0 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.