textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 259 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon and interior, mainly over the interior.

- More widespread showers and storms will move south through the area tonight and Wednesday, with the strongest storms capable of producing damaging winds gusts and frequent lightning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

West and northwest flow will hold today, continuing the pattern of a few showers or storms shifting onshore throughout the morning, then more widespread storm coverage developing over the interior during the afternoon hours. Rain chances will increase from north to south overnight and Wednesday as a weak front works south into the area. While a few stronger storms will be possible, especially over the Nature Coast during the evening hours, the front will quickly be losing upper level support as it pushes into the forecast area, limiting the severe storm risk for most of west central and southwest Florida. The front will stall out over southwest Florida Thursday night and Friday, splitting the area between limited rain chances north of Interstate 4 during the second half of the week, while more favorable moisture and higher rain chances will continue over the southern half of the area. Otherwise, northeast winds behind the front will advect in a slightly cooler and less humid airmass, dropping high temperatures into the low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday through early next week, surface high pressure will setup north of Florida, favoring easterly flow and allowing temperatures and humidity to gradually rebound. This pattern will favor isolated to scattered showers and storms developing each afternoon, mainly along sea breeze boundaries.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Occasional MVFR ceilings will be possible at times this morning as a few showers shift onshore from the Gulf. Showers and storms will continue to develop and build into the interior this afternoon, mainly around KLAL. More widespread storms are forecast to push south through the area during the overnight area, lowering flight categories as storms approach individual terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

High pressure south of the waters will keep west and northwest flow in place today, supporting isolated showers and storms moving onshore at times through the morning hours. Tonight and Wednesday, a front will push south into the waters, bringing higher rain chances and allowing winds to turn to northerly and then easterly by late Wednesday and increasing to around advisory levels. Winds and seas will subside through the day on Thursday as high pressure builds in north of the waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Light northwest flow will hold today, with a few showers shifting into the Florida Peninsula from the Gulf through the morning, then scattered to numerous showers and storms developing over the interior during the afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms will become more numerous tonight and Wednesday as a front pushes south into the area, with winds turning to northeasterly and increasing on Wednesday. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 76 84 72 / 20 60 70 30 FMY 93 76 87 72 / 20 30 70 60 GIF 92 73 83 71 / 50 60 60 10 SRQ 91 76 86 71 / 20 50 80 50 BKV 92 71 84 67 / 30 60 70 10 SPG 92 76 86 74 / 20 60 80 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.