textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-105 degrees continue areawide.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week mainly interior and southwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A weak boundary north of I-4 is helping to spark a few showers during our early afternoon hours. This boundary will be the main focus of convection this afternoon and evening across West Central FLorida. Down in Southwest Florida we will be seeing southwesterly flow still in place keeping storms mainly inland. As we head into our Thursday we will see a small increase in moisture but the southwesterly flow will keep storms inland and along the east coast once again.

As we head into Friday and the weekend ridging will start to shift north of our area. This will finally bring a more easterly flow in place which should see showers closer to the west coast of Florida. This ridge will shift slightly south again and remain over the area Saturday through Monday. This will bring more of a neutral flow into the area. This flow typically has the afternoon storms develop inland but they tend to drift to the west coast in the evening hours.

By next Tuesday we will see an increase in PW over 2 inches as flow switching more easterly once again. If this forecast remain the same we could see more of a widespread shower chances that day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with westerly flow. Storms will be develop mainly inland and along the east coast today. This will result in storm mentions in both LAL and RSW.

MARINE

Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Winds will remain out of the west through Thursday around 5 to 10 knots. Winds will start to shift as we end our work week into the weekend but staying around 5 to 10 knots. Winds will be out of the south on Friday and out of the east on Saturday and Sunday

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Summertime humidity and heat will continue however we are expecting dry conditions for the west coast of Florida for much of our work week with better storm chances on Friday and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 80 92 80 / 40 10 20 0 FMY 94 78 94 78 / 20 10 40 30 GIF 95 75 95 76 / 50 20 50 20 SRQ 93 79 93 79 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 95 74 95 74 / 40 10 30 0 SPG 92 80 92 81 / 30 10 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.