textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Cool temperatures will persist tonight, with areas of frost expected over at least the Nature Coast counties and areas north of the Tampa Bay. Temperatures will then trend warmer Saturday and at least the first half of Sunday.
- A cold front will move into the area on Sunday, bringing rain, breezy winds, and hazardous marine conditions followed by another round of cold temperatures early next week.
UPDATE
Issued at 721 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
Early evening IR satellite imagery is showing clear skies across west central and southwest Florida, while winds become calm as high pressure settles in across the region. Although temperatures tonight will not be as cold as last night, this pattern will allow for strong radiational cooling, with temperatures expected to drop into the mid 30s and approach freezing over the Nature Coast counties, and drop into the upper 30s to around 50 farther south. Frost will also be a concern for the Nature Coast and areas north of Tampa Bay/Interstate 4, but dew points may still be a bit too dry to allow for widespread frost.
Some minor changes were made to the mentions of frost tonight and Saturday morning. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track, and no other changes are planned for the evening forecast update.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 721 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours.
MARINE
Issued at 1246 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
Marine conditions have settled after yesterday's gusty winds and will remain benign the rest of today into tomorrow. Saturday night into Sunday morning another cold front will move over the waters, increasing winds to advisory levels once again. Winds will come down from advisory levels to more borderline cautionary levels to begin the week and remain elevated through the week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 46 72 55 65 / 0 0 20 60 FMY 48 76 57 73 / 0 0 10 20 GIF 44 74 53 67 / 0 0 10 40 SRQ 45 72 54 69 / 0 0 20 50 BKV 35 73 46 62 / 0 0 30 60 SPG 51 72 58 66 / 0 0 20 60
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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