textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather with rain-free conditions and lower humidity expected through midweek.

- Moisture increases late in the week leading to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

After a few days of unsettled, rainy weather, we have shifted to a stretch of pleasant and dry conditions. As a cold front exits south of the area, dry air has swooped in. This morning's sounding compared to yesterday mornings shows PWAT values dropping form over 2" to just above 1". Temperatures this morning were also slightly cooler with many in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrow morning, lows will dip a little lower with low to mid 60s expected, possibly even some isolated upper 50s in the northern areas. Conditions will remain unchanged through mid week as high pressure holds over the region. Moisture slowly returns Thursday with rain chances reappearing in the forecast over south Florida as a cold front approaches the area. Highest rain chances through the end of the week into the weekend will likely remain south of I4. Following the front, the northeast winds will pick up, helping to push more dry air in over the area as next week begins.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Quiet, clear VFR conditions continue through the period. Winds remain out of the North to Northeast.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Mostly pleasant, though still a bit breezy marine conditions expected over the next few days as high pressure remains over the area. By the end of the week, frontal boundary will move over the waters bringing showers and storms. Winds are expected to pick up to advisory levels starting Saturday and lasting through the weekend into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values remain above critical levels, even as dry air moves over the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 68 87 70 89 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 65 88 68 89 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 67 87 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 60 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 70 86 71 87 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.