textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical Depression 2 has formed in the eastern Gulf and is currently drifting NNW.

- Unsettled weather will continue into Monday. Strong gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning are likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Invest 92 in the Gulf has officially been upgraded to Tropical Depression 2. Though the steering flow is very light, model Guidance has become more confident that the system will begin to drift more Northwest over the next day or so before making. This will pull TD2 away from Florida. However, the main threats will be showers and storms especially along the coast today and tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms today have the potential for strong winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Some localized flooding could also be possible with multiple rounds of showers moving over the same areas. Shower and storm activity will shift a little further north tomorrow as TD2 also drifts further NW.

As TD2 continues to pull away from Florida, dry air will begin to filter in. By mid week, rain chances become limited. This will also allow temperatures to jump back up to the mid to upper 90s and heat indices to reach into the triple digits once again.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

As discussed this morning, periods of showers and storms will continue into the evening. Showers and storms have the potential to drop ceilings and visibilities as they move through. Most showers continue to be moving quickly through the area. Conditions will likely quiet overnight before ramping back up tomorrow morning. Coverage should shift a little further north tomorrow, southern sites like RSW and FMY may have less impacts.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Tropical Depression 2 continues to spin in the Gulf leading to hazardous marine conditions over the next few days.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as ample moisture lingers over the area. As tropical depression 2 continues to drift away from Florida, dry air will filter. However RH values will remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 88 80 90 / 60 60 30 40 FMY 79 90 79 92 / 40 50 20 20 GIF 76 90 77 93 / 20 60 10 20 SRQ 79 87 79 90 / 70 70 40 40 BKV 74 88 75 91 / 40 60 20 30 SPG 79 87 80 89 / 70 70 40 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.