textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory for Levy county this afternoon.

- Potentially a few degrees warmer on Friday with more widespread advisory level heat.

- Below climo precip expected next several days

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through the weekend creating above normal temperatures and rather hot uncomfortable conditions. Strong subsidence over the area combined with some mid level dry air will suppress afternoon shower/storm development for the next couple of days. However, any storms that are able to form could be strong with gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Onshore west to northwest boundary layer flow today will push the west coast sea breeze inland rather quickly. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm this morning/early afternoon mainly north of Tampa, which will push inland with a slight increase in areal coverage during the mid/late afternoon hours. However, the strong U/L ridge will act to suppress convection keeping pops below climo. The strong subsidence over the area will also cause temperatures to continue to run several degrees above climatic normals with highs in the lower to mid 90s. The slightly drier air aloft will mix down this afternoon and suppress dew points into the lower/mid 70s away from the coast. Although it will be hot, this should act to keep maximum apparent temperatures across most of west central and southwest Florida just below heat advisory criteria in the 105 to 107 range...although isolated locations may briefly touch 108. A heat advisory is in effect for Levy county this afternoon as max apparent temperatures there are expected to reach 109 due to slightly higher dew points.

On Friday, the U/L ridge will build about 20 to 30 decameters, which will also persist into Saturday. The increased subsidence will cause temperatures to climb a degree or two, with more widespread heat advisories needed each day. Again, convection will be suppressed due to the strong subsidence aloft. The boundary layer flow will weaken with the west coast sea breeze boundary only slowly pushing inland. Scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chance of rain along the west coast sea breeze boundary which will be in the vcnty of the inland coastal counties. On Saturday, the boundary layer flow will shift and become light east to southeast. This will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary a bit closer to the coast through the day which will coincide with the highest pops...albeit still well below climo with only 20/30 pops. Exception will be southwest Florida where a bit deeper moisture and instability will lead to scattered to numerous afternoon showers/storms. Again, a few strong storms will be possible each day.

Although heights will fall a bit on Sunday, which will hold into early/mid next week, the U/L ridge will remain firmly in control. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normals with portions of the area potentially under heat advisories during the afternoon hours. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s each day. Showers/thunderstorms will continue to be suppressed with isolated to scattered daily afternoon/evening activity, which will dissipate before midnight.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through Thursday. A few afternoon showers/thunderstorms mainly vcnty LAL/PGD/RSW/FMY will create local MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the forecast period with generally benign conditions each day. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible mainly during the overnight and early morning hours which could create locally gusty winds and hazardous seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 79 94 79 / 10 0 40 10 FMY 95 78 95 78 / 20 20 30 20 GIF 95 77 95 77 / 30 10 50 30 SRQ 93 77 95 77 / 10 0 40 10 BKV 93 75 95 75 / 20 10 40 10 SPG 93 80 94 80 / 10 0 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Levy-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.