textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

-Drier on will fill in on Friday but a few showers and storms are expected to develop over southwest Florida. -Unsettled weather is expected at times this weekend with daily showers and storm chances.

-Much cooler and drier air arrives early next week in the wake of a strong cold front.

UPDATE

Issued at 837 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Early evening radar imagery is showing a broken band of showers continuing to push south through southwest Florida, with rain free conditions filling in behind the line and expected to hold overnight. While almost the entire forecast area received some amount of the rain today, only a few pockets of around an inch or more of rainfall was observed, with the majority of the region receiving around a quarter of an inch or less.

The forecast looks on track overall, with drier air filling into the northern half of the forecast area for Friday keeping the rain chances generally over southwest Florida, then moisture surging back across the entire area this weekend with more widespread rain chances. A few minor adjustments were made to the rain chances for the next couple of hours to keep up with radar trends. Otherwise, no significant changes are planned for the evening update.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 837 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Showers will continue to work south through southwest Florida over the next couple of hours, causing brief visibility disruptions at times. Otherwise, MVFR and occasional IFR ceilings will continue to impact area terminals overnight and into Friday morning behind the front. Scattered showers and storms will be possible Friday afternoon, mainly over southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD.

MARINE

Issued at 837 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Breezy winds behind a weak cold front are triggering Small Craft Advisory headlines over the northern Gulf zones overnight, with Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines needed across the other marine zones. Winds will subside Friday morning and generally remain less than 15 knots through the weekend, although thunderstorms will be possible each day during the afternoon and early evening hours producing locally higher winds and seas. The next cold front will arrive Monday night, bringing another round of Advisory level winds and seas through Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 83 67 83 / 10 10 10 60 FMY 66 86 68 85 / 50 30 30 70 GIF 62 82 65 83 / 20 20 10 70 SRQ 63 84 67 84 / 20 10 20 60 BKV 54 83 59 84 / 10 10 10 50 SPG 66 83 70 84 / 10 10 10 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.