textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat indices likely to approach advisory criteria on Thursday afternoon for parts of the area.

- Rain chances gradually increase late week into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 825 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Aside from a few minor adjustments for gradually decaying convection across the Nature Coast, the forecast grids remain on track this evening. Quiet overnight period expected under partly cloudy skies with lows in the 70s to around 80 degrees along the immediate coast. Signal for advisory criteria heat indices on Thursday afternoon is less widespread compared to today, generally limited to areas north of I-4 per latest guidance, and will be further evaluated for the Thursday morning package issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Broad mid/upper-level high pressure remains over the region through much of the forecast period, keeping warm and humid conditions in place each day. Rain chances will remain unseasonably lower for the most part, except for Friday when a trough moves over the state and then again early next week with additional moisture and more unsettled weather. The bigger issue will be the heat, with higher temps and dew points leading to near-Heat Advisory conditions each day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Mainly VFR expected across terminals through the period. Current convection over S FL likely to remain east of SWFL terminals before diminishing later this evening. Another round of convection Thursday afternoon likely with PROB30 groups for KLAL and SWFL terminals for potential impacts afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, lgt/vrb winds overnight increase out of the W-NW late morning into afternoon then gradually diminish in the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 227 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026 High pressure will keep northwest winds in place over the waters for the next couple of days, with no headlines expected. Rain chances remain low through the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 227 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026 No Red Flag concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 93 79 94 / 0 10 10 40 FMY 77 94 77 95 / 10 30 20 50 GIF 76 95 76 95 / 10 30 20 50 SRQ 77 93 77 94 / 0 10 10 50 BKV 75 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 40 SPG 80 94 80 94 / 0 10 10 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.