textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue into the weekend with some record high temperatures possible.

- There is a low to medium chance of showers and a stray storm each afternoon and evening into early next week.

- Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible the next couple of mornings.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 Low clouds and some patchy fog will continue to affect area terminals through around 14-15Z, then VFR is expected through the rest of the day. Shower and storm chances are lower today so have just left VCSH in for later this afternoon/evening. For tonight, additional low clouds are expected, with MVFR or lower conditions through the morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Upper level ridging continues to ridge east of Florida and along the eastern seaboard through the weekend. On the surface, broad high pressure located near Bermuda ridges westward over the southeast U.S. with the ridge axis extending east to west along the GA/FL line and along the northern Gulf coast. This pattern will keep a predominant east to southeast flow over the forecast area into the weekend. Models do show a slightly drier air mass over the area today and Saturday with PWATs around 1.2-1.4 inches, which is still adequate for some showers and a stray storm today and Saturday, but likely will not be as widespread and big rain producers as we saw on Thursday afternoon/evening.

By Sunday morning, the ridge has shifted slightly southward with the ridge axis extending through north central Florida and into the northeast Gulf. Models show PWAT values dipping to around 1.0 - 1.3 inches starting Sunday and continuing for the first half of next week. This drier air will limit the chances for afternoon showers and storms for Monday through Wednesday next week. By next Thursday morning, upper ridging builds in over the Gulf as weak high pressure sits over the southeast U.S. Abundant moisture will allow for increasing chances of afternoon showers on Thursday and Friday next week.

Warm temperatures around 8-10 degrees above average continue through the forecast period, with some record highs possible. Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s, with some areas reaching 90 degrees. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 121 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Pleasant boating conditions continue as high pressure ridges across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters. This will produce prevailing easterly winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through the weekend. A sea breeze will set up along the west coast during the afternoon/evening with onshore winds expected. A chance of showers and a stray storm during the late afternoon and evening will be possible each day through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 121 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

High pressure ridging across the region will keep a predominant east- southeast wind flow over the region with humidity values remaining above critical levels. A sea breeze close to the coast will produce a shift in winds to an onshore flow during the afternoon. A chance of showers and a stray storm possible each afternoon and evening. Some patchy fog possible for the next couple of mornings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 86 68 86 68 / 20 20 30 10 FMY 89 67 89 66 / 30 10 20 10 GIF 87 67 88 66 / 20 10 40 10 SRQ 86 67 86 65 / 20 20 30 10 BKV 88 62 89 60 / 20 10 30 10 SPG 86 70 86 69 / 20 20 30 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.