textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1219 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Be prepared to alter outdoor events if lightning and thunder are seen or heard.

- The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will range from late night and morning near the west coast then shifting inland into the interior by late afternoon and evening each day into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026 Weak high pressure will hold over the region over the weekend and through early next week. Plume of deep tropical moisture as seen on W/V imagery will continue to extend from the western Caribbean...across the eastern Gulf...and over the Florida peninsula. Main driver of daily convection will be dictated by the boundary layer wind flow. Currently from the northwest...the flow will back to the west and southwest today. This typically promotes late night showers/isolated thunderstorms developing over the coastal waters which advect locally onshore during the early morning hours. Additional scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms develop during the morning/early afternoon hours over the coastal counties and spread inland through the remainder of the afternoon/evening increasing in areal coverage/higher pops interior. This pattern will hold through Tuesday.

Wednesday will be a transition day as a weak frontal boundary sinks south down the peninsula. Surface high pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front late in the week with drier air surface and aloft advecting over the forecast area, with dew points potentially dropping into the lower/mid 60s. NBM POPs/DPs appear to high during this period. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s each day. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s into early next week...but again the NBM appears to warm with overnight mins late in the week because of the drier air expected to advect over the region, with lows potentially in the 60s across the area...except lower 70s along the coast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026 VFR CIGs AOA 120 the remainder of the night at all terminals. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop vcnty all terminals Saturday morning/early afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs...with the best chance of a shower or storm at LAL/PGD/RSW/FMY.

MARINE

Issued at 1219 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026 Weak high pressure will hold over the waters for the next several days. Winds will back to the west/southwest today, which will also persist for the next several days. Winds/seas are expected to remain below cautionary levels through the period. Main hazard will be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms which will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and rough seas. Best time for a shower/storm will be during the overnight and morning hours each day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days to keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values to remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 79 89 79 / 20 20 40 20 FMY 90 79 92 78 / 10 10 20 10 GIF 89 76 90 76 / 30 20 60 20 SRQ 90 79 90 79 / 10 10 40 10 BKV 89 75 89 76 / 30 30 40 30 SPG 90 80 90 80 / 10 20 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.