textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing temperatures and some frost early this morning across parts of the Nature Coast. - High fire weather danger from around Tampa Bay north across the Nature Coast today, and across northern parts of the Nature Coast on Thursday.

- Temperatures gradually moderating back to near to a few above normal by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The upper level trough will continue to move slowly east across the eastern U.S. and eventually out into the western Atlantic Ocean late in the week. A couple of shortwaves moving through this trough will move over the region tonight and again Thursday night bringing just some mid and high clouds.

Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure moving across the eastern U.S. will continue to build into the area through the work week and eventually settle over the region this weekend into early next week. The somewhat breezy northeast to north low level flow will persist across the area into Thursday, then diminish Friday and become rather light over the weekend into early next week with an afternoon sea breeze developing each day.

We'll see a gradual moderating trend through the weekend into early next week and with a rather dry airmass holding across the area the next slim chance of rain is not until next Tuesday. Daytime high temperatures will get back to near normal by Friday and then a few degrees above normal this weekend into early next week. Overnight lows however will take until Sunday, if not Monday, to climb back to near normal, thanks to the rather dry airmass across the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period with northeast to north winds at around 10 knots, with some higher gusts later this morning.

MARINE

Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Exercise Caution conditions will continue into Thursday for the central and southern waters with the breezy north to northeast flow persisting. Winds will diminish late in the week through the weekend as high pressure settles over the area with no further headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

A dry air mass will remain over the region with relative humidity values dipping to critical levels from around the Tampa Bay area north across the Nature Coast this afternoon, and across Levy and Citrus counties Thursday afternoon. However, no Red Flag issues are expected as sustained 20 foot winds remain less than 15 mph and the Significant Fire Potential is low. The rather dry airmass will remain across the area through the weekend with temperatures gradually moderating back to near to a few degrees above normal.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 71 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 74 54 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 71 51 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 72 52 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 70 43 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 71 56 76 59 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.