textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warming trend through the week.
- A cold front will bring a chance of rain late in the weekend.
- Cooler temperature return next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1202 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 High pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida through the end of the week and over much of the weekend with the warming trend continuing. High cloudiness will persist over the region today...with decreasing cloudiness Thursday night and Friday.
A cold front will approach north Florida late Sunday and Sunday night and will push across the forecast area through Monday morning. Showers likely north with a slight chance of thunderstorms. As the frontal boundary moves across the region, the U/L support will be lifting away from the area. This will cause the band of showers and possible storms to decrease in areal coverage as they move southeast across the central and southern forecast area...with the highest pops across the nature coast then decreasing from north to south.
Canadian high pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front early next week with much colder drier air advecting across the region. Freezing temperatures possible Monday night/early Tuesday morning for portions of the nature coast. Gradual warming trend thereafter on Wednesday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with skies generally FEW-SCT040 and BKN-OVC250 at all terminals.
MARINE
Issued at 1202 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the end of the week and over much of the weekend with winds and seas gradually subsiding. A cold front will push across the waters late Sunday through Monday morning. Winds and seas will build in the wake of the front as strong high pressure builds over the region with advisory levels winds possible.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1202 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected through the weekend as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 60 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 81 63 83 63 / 10 0 10 10 GIF 79 59 83 61 / 10 0 10 0 SRQ 78 58 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 80 49 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 77 61 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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