textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue this week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Ridging continues over the area at the surface and aloft over the area this afternoon supporting another round of sea breeze convection through this evening. Showers and storms again likely to focus over areas from SWFL through W FL along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions, with highest chances likely from around the I-4 corridor southward later this afternoon as the WC/ECFL sea breeze converge. This morning's TBW sounding continued to indicate near-average PWATs and relatively light winds throughout the column, and along with regional ACARS soundings indicate an increased easterly component in the SFC-3km layer winds. Therefore, while storm motions will continue to be rather slow today, the overall axis of highest PoPs may shift slightly westward over SW/WCFL compared to yesterday. Stronger convection will continue to pose an isolated hail or damaging wind gust threat but overall severe threat remains limited. Highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s coastal and lower/mid 90s inland.

Pattern aloft over the U.S. continues to amplify, with strong high pressure becoming established over the E U.S. centered north of the local area and persisting through the week. The surface ridge shifts south across the area as a frontal boundary sinks south across the E U.S. and stalls over the Srn E Seaboard/N Gulf coast into mid week. Boundary layer flow gradually shifts to W/NW on Monday then gradually veers to E/NE through Wednesday, with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms locally. Highest rain chances shift from northern/central areas on Mon-Tue to central and southern areas from Wednesday onward as light and generally easterly deep layer flow becomes established over the area. Afternoon highs continue to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s, with max heat indices in the lower/mid 100s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Developing afternoon SH/TSRA will persist into the evening with brief MVFR/LCL IFR impacts possible. Activity looks to diminish across northern coastal terminals early evening while lingering perhaps another hour or two for SWFL terminals as outflow pushes convection back toward the coast. Winds become light and variable overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions with winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. Showers and storms producing locally higher winds and seas will be the primary hazard through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Ample moisture will maintain RHs above critical levels through the period with winds remaining below 15 mph. Daily showers and storms may produce locally erratic and gusty winds, otherwise no significant fire concerns expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 94 81 93 / 10 40 20 70 FMY 77 96 78 96 / 10 20 20 60 GIF 76 96 77 95 / 10 50 30 80 SRQ 78 94 79 95 / 10 30 10 60 BKV 75 97 76 95 / 10 30 30 80 SPG 81 94 81 94 / 10 30 20 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.