textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for eastern portions of the forecast area today and tomorrow afternoon.

- Locally heavy rain possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026 A stationary boundary persists across north Florida. An U/L disturbance will continue to ride over the frontal boundary today and tonight and will generate numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. An atmospheric river remains evident on W/V imagery extending from the tropical eastern Pacific...across the Gulf...and Florida peninsula. This will increase the risk for locally heavy convective rainfall across the forecast area this afternoon with a few 2 to 4 inch bullseyes possible, with the best chance over the interior. This is due to the continued onshore west to southwest boundary layer flow which favors highest pops over the interior and eastern Peninsula. An MCS which formed over the central Gulf on Monday has been weakening as its pushed off the loop current and is currently moving over the relatively cooler eastern Gulf. However, there may be enough of this remnant complex to hold together and move onshore the west central coast of Florida around sunrise with a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm...although satellite imagery indicates this area of showers/storms has been dissipating rather quickly over the past several hours. Will continue to monitor.

As the U/L disturbance exits the region tonight, the frontal boundary across north Florida will sink south down the Florida peninsula with winds veering to the north and northwest. Shower/thunderstorm activity will also exit to the east.

On Wednesday, surface high pressure will begin to build over the forecast area. Remnant deep layer moisture in the wake of the exiting system will be sufficient to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the interior in region of max heating and L/L convergence. NBM POPs appear to be a bit overdone.

High pressure and drier air will become better established Thursday through Saturday with overall dry conditions expected with high temperatures generally in the mid 80s at the coast to the lower 90s inland each day.

Low level moisture will recover a bit Sunday and Monday with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly south of Tampa bay.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026 VFR CIGs 250 will persist through the remainder of the night. Daytime heating on Tuesday will generate SCT LCL BKN 030-040 with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms developing with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. All terminals will have a good chance of seeing a shower or storm at some point during the day, although LAL has the best chance for a longer period of showers/storms.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026 Relatively weak gradient will persist over the waters through the period with no headlines expected. Main hazard today will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of a frontal boundary which will move across the waters today and tonight. The storms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. High pressure will build over the waters in the wake of the front Wednesday, and will hold over the region through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected through Thursday as sufficient low level moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values above critical levels through mid week. Dry air combined with warm temperatures may create critical relative humidity values over portions of the nature coast and interior Friday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 74 86 73 / 50 50 20 10 FMY 92 74 89 73 / 30 20 30 10 GIF 89 71 88 70 / 80 40 60 10 SRQ 90 73 87 72 / 30 30 30 0 BKV 88 66 87 66 / 70 50 30 10 SPG 91 75 87 75 / 40 40 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.