textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical RH values across the region the next few days.

- Above average temperatures continue through the week.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the week and into the weekend producing rain-free conditions and above average temperatures. Persistent upper ridging extending over Florida as well as surface high pressure near Bermuda ridging west- southwestward over Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters will continue to dominate the weather pattern. PWAT values will remain below 1 inch through the week and into the weekend resulting in rain- free conditions and well above average temperatures through the week. Moisture will slightly increase on Sunday ahead of a weak front expected to move through on Monday. Rain chances will remain on the low side (10-20 percent) on Monday and Tuesday next week. Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s through Thursday, then reaching the 90s in some areas late week and into the weekend. Mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s expected through the forecast period. Slightly cooler temperatures closer to average expected for the first part of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR and rain-free conditions along with winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

High pressure near Bermuda ridges across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters keeping a persistent east-southeast wind flow 15 knots or less over the region through the week and into the weekend. Winds will turn onshore during the afternoon/evening as the sea breeze sets up. This high pressure will also keep rain-free conditions over the Gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

High pressure ridging over the area will keep rain-free conditions over the area through the week. Some critical RH values below 35 percent expected during the week, but light winds below 15 mph will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 87 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 87 60 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 85 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 89 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 86 68 86 69 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.