textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather with increased rain chances through the weekend and into early next week. Strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are likely.

- There is a low, 30 percent, chance of a low pressure system forming in the Eastern Gulf over the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Unsettled weather continues as the mid level areas of low pressure continues to rotate in the eastern Gulf. The Hurricane Center will continue to monitor the disturbance which currently has a 30 percent chance of development over the next 2 days and 40 percent chance over the next 7 days. Today has consisted of mostly rain showers with very lightning and only occasional gusts of more than 25 mph. Showers will continue to move onshore from the south as the afternoon continues. Some areas today have already received multiple rounds of showers, which will continue into the evening. Be cautious when out and about as the localized rainfall could lead to ponding on roads. Tomorrow is currently forecasted to be very similar to today with showers and storms off the coast moving onshore early morning. Though inland coverage will likely be less compared to the past couple of days. As the disturbance continues to slowly drift NNW over the next few days rain chances will transition further north in the CWA. A bit of uncertainty still exists in the overall forecast as we transition into next week. Much still depends on where the system in the Gulf moves and how long it takes it to do so. However, by midweek, the forecast transitions to a more typical summertime pattern as the Gulf disturbance moves far enough away to have less influence here.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions will continue in areas not affected by showers and storms. Though showers continue to stream onshore from the Gulf, most have mostly been light with little impact to visibility or ceilings. This pattern will likely continue through the evening with a lull likely overnight as showers move offshore. However, early morning showers are expected to move onshore once again tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Less than ideal marine conditions continue as the disturbance continues to rotate in the Gulf. Periods of showers and storms likely with winds and seas increasing near storms. Winds begin to increase Sunday afternoon likely reaching cautionary to advisory levels. Elevated winds continue into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of moisture remains over the area

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 88 79 89 / 40 60 40 70 FMY 78 91 79 91 / 30 50 30 50 GIF 75 93 76 93 / 30 40 20 40 SRQ 77 89 79 90 / 60 60 50 70 BKV 73 90 74 91 / 30 60 40 70 SPG 79 87 79 88 / 50 60 50 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.