textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few storms possible today with highest chances along and south of the I-4 corridor.

- Night to morning low clouds and fog possible through the week.

- New record breaking temperatures Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)

Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Many Cu decorating the skies and advecting from the east with a few growing to be showers over central portions of the state. This activity will continue as troughiness remains to our east and stalled frontal boundary stretches across South Florida. The combination of available moisture, daytime heating, and the sea breeze should support additional showers and few storms this afternoon and evening. CAM guidance suggests that highest chances stay along and south of the I-4 corridor, especially over SW portions of the area. The sea breeze is currently beginning to push inland south of Tampa Bay. The collision of it with the east to northeasterly flow should support higher coverage compared to yesterday.

Most of the activity should dissipate through the evening with lows dropping into the 60s with some low clouds lingering overnight and into the early hours of Thursday. Then, high pressure begins to build from the west pushing the aforementioned boundary out of the area. Lingering moisture may support a shower or two over the interior, but most areas should remain dry on Thursday.

LONG TERM (FRI-TUE)

Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Going into the weekend, a gradual warm up is anticipated as high pressure dominates while another U/L disturbance and associated front approaches the region. As a result, temperatures could be near record Friday and Saturday as we see highs approaching 90 degrees. The front will slowly move on Sunday, which could support isolated showers to develop during the day with some cooler air filtering in with highs in the low 80's.

By next week, the front will be just south of Florida with much drier and slightly cooler overnight temperatures to follow. Afternoon highs climb up into the 80s during this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated over the next few hours before showers and some storms near terminals. The highest confidence remains over interior locations along the I-4 corridor, however, CAM guidance continues to push some convection west and given the current trends, VCSH and a few TEMPOs were added. There is uncertainty on the timing of the convection and how far south it will move. East to northeasterly winds will prevail with the sea breeze trying to make its way inland.

MARINE

Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A weak front remains stalled across SW Florida with prevailing winds from the north becomes east to northeast. Very warm conditions are anticipated Friday and Saturday with another front approaching for the weekend. This will bring advisory levels winds into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A front will increase moisture and rain chances across the area. Minimum humidity values remain between 40-50 percent through the period. North to northeasterly winds will become more easterly through the period. Drier conditions return Thursday and Friday with another front approaching for the weekend. Sunday will be breezy with winds around 10 to 15 mph and gusts up 25 mph out of the east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 66 83 66 85 / 10 10 0 10 FMY 64 86 64 88 / 20 10 0 20 GIF 64 85 64 88 / 10 20 0 10 SRQ 65 82 64 84 / 20 10 0 10 BKV 59 85 58 87 / 10 10 0 10 SPG 69 82 69 84 / 10 10 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.