textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 846 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- With an upper-level low over Florida, a few stronger storms may produce strong gusty winds and hail on Sunday.

- A summertime pattern will continue through the week, with warm and humid conditions and scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 846 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Thunderstorms continue across portions of SWFL this evening, but the overall intensity has been on a downward trend. Many areas this evening have seen beneficial rainfall, with some pockets upwards of 4 inches in a few locations. As the atmosphere continues to see rebounding moisture tomorrow and into the early part of the upcoming work week, should see the coverage continue to increase.

All the extra moisture and a light NE flow once again could support some low clouds towards morning. Given that overall thunderstorm coverage was better today, one would expect the potential to be higher. Indeed, some guidance is hinting at this tonight. So the forecast has been tweaked to show this overnight.

Otherwise, the forecast looks good and remains on track. No other changes are needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

An upper level low continues to spin over the eastern Gulf through the day. This is apparent on both water vapor and IR satellite imagery showing the center of this low extending from the eastern Gulf to the central part of the state. On the surface, high pressure north of the state will keep a predominant northeast through southeast wind flow over the region through the weekend. The 12Z morning sounding is showing a PWAT of 1.90 inches and some slightly cool mid-level temperatures with the 500 mb temps around -9 degrees. These cooler temps may enhance convective instability with a small risk of damaging wind gusts and possible hail with stronger storms this afternoon/evening. The upper low shifts slightly westward by Sunday morning further into the eastern Gulf. PWAT remains about the same around 1.7 - 2.0 inches on Sunday, which will support scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms once again.

The upper low will be slow to lift out of the area to the northeast on Tuesday. Abundant moisture with PWAT between 1.7 - 2.0 inches will remain over the area for the first half of next week with continued scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms expected each day. Strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard will ridge southwest over Florida for the latter part of next week producing a predominant northeast wind flow over the region. Some slightly drier air with PWAT values around 1.3 - 1.6 inches will advect into the region as well, with lower shower and storm coverage for next Thursday through Saturday.

Near seasonal temperatures expected topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 846 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms should wind down across SWFL over the next couple hours. Given the late lingering storms and overall greater coverage today, there is the potential to see some low clouds in the morning tomorrow. Not confident enough to explicitly forecast IFR conditions, but have introduced a low SCT layer at most sites. If the flow is light enough and the surface RH values remain high, it is even possible to see some early morning fog in some areas too. Again - not confident enough to explicitly forecast this. Any low clouds or fog should quickly erode after sunrise, with VFR through the remainder of the morning and into early afternoon before thunderstorms develop once again in the afternoon. There was good coverage today, and the expectation is that coverage and timing should be similar once again tomorrow. Elevated rain chances remain for the next few days in the afternoon/evening as the deeper moisture remains and an easterly flow persists.

MARINE

Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the weekend and into early next week producing northeast through southeast winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Moisture will increase through the next few days, bringing higher rain chances. East-northeast winds will continue, with showers and storms moving westward through the day. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, with no Red Flag concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 89 74 89 / 10 50 30 80 FMY 74 90 74 89 / 30 50 50 80 GIF 73 90 73 90 / 10 50 20 80 SRQ 74 89 74 89 / 40 50 40 80 BKV 71 91 71 91 / 10 40 20 80 SPG 76 88 76 88 / 20 50 40 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.