textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- High risk of dangerous rip currents along area beaches through Thursday.

- Lower rain chances through Thursday, then scattered storms return for Friday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Late start to this afternoon's seabreeze/outflow boundary interactions showers and thunderstorms in SW FL that are still building Nward up the into C FL for the next few hours before weakening and drifting back towards the W coast by around midnight.

The rip current statement was extended into Thursday as Bertha's long period swells in C Gulf move ashore local beaches Thursday with wave energy producing dangerous rip currents.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Line of seabreeze VCSH/VCTS ongoing from near SW FL terminals continues building Nward to keep mention in TAFs thru 02-04Z with brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in stronger cells. VFR conditions overnight with light winds then afternoon seabreeze VCTS Thu aft 18-20Z.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move west across the northern Gulf coast with much drier air now over Florida. There are some widely scattered showers and a few storms that are still expected to move mainly over southwest Florida, but it does still look like some activity will move back toward the coast/Tampa Bay region tonight after 00Z before moving offshore and diminishing.

For the rest of the week and into the weekend, the ridge axis builds back over the region, with southeast boundary layer winds giving way to the sea breeze each afternoon. Rain chances remain lower tomorrow, but then moisture starts to return for Friday with increased rain chances each day. Flow then shifts to onshore early next week, shifting highest PoPs to the interior in the afternoon after morning showers along the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Elevated winds and seas will continue today before subsiding through the next couple of days as Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move away from the region. No headlines are expected tomorrow into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Drier air will remain over the region for the next couple of days, though relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Rain chances remain lower through Thursday, then increase starting Friday as moisture starts to increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 94 78 94 / 30 20 20 30 FMY 76 96 77 94 / 40 30 10 80 GIF 76 96 75 95 / 40 20 10 40 SRQ 77 95 76 95 / 30 20 20 60 BKV 74 96 73 96 / 20 20 20 20 SPG 79 94 79 94 / 20 10 20 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.