textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 843 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Thunderstorm coverage will increase Saturday, but will remain limited over the Nature Coast counties. Thunderstorms that do develop will have a higher potential of gusty winds and hail.

- Higher rain chances are forecast across the area Sunday into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 843 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Aided by some mid-level dry air, thunderstorms produced some gustier winds this afternoon across the region. Those storms have now pushed well offshore and a light easterly flow is settling across the area. While guidance does not show a particularly strong signal for this outcome, the light ENE flow, coupled with low-level moisture, favors the development of some low clouds around the I-4 corridor towards morning. The forecast has been tweaked overnight to show some additional clouds in the forecast towards morning.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. No additional changes are needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 High pressure sits aloft over the southern U.S. this afternoon while a low spins over east Florida. At the surface, high pressure spins just north of the region, keeping an east/northeast low-level flow in place across the forecast area. With a bit more moisture available today, we should see more storm coverage compared with the last couple of days, with the highest chances still for the southern half of the area. The pattern is similar for Saturday, just with coverage extending farther north. We will also see some colder temperatures aloft (500 mb temps around -9 to -10 deg C) both days, which could lead to a few stronger storms.

For Sunday into next week, moisture will continua to increase, resulting in more numerous storm coverage. Flow will still be easterly, with showers and storms developing over the eastern half of the peninsula and shifting westward through the afternoon and evening.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 843 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

With thunderstorms now pushing off the FL west coast, the potential for thunderstorms has ended at all airports for the night. A window will again return tomorrow afternoon, with an upper-level low moving through favoring stronger wind gusts and a greater threat for hail in storms that do develop. This low also means that light low level ENE winds will persist across the area as the dominant flow, except near the coast for a short period in the afternoon. When coupled with high low-level moisture, some low clouds are possible beginning around 09Z to 10Z at KLAL, KTPA, and KPIE. While guidance doesn't show a particularly strong signal for it, the conditions are right and climatology would suggest it is possible. For now, have opted to show SCT CIGs in the morning, but it could easily be BKN or OVC. Will monitor trends overnight to see how conditions develop. Low CIGs are even more likely tomorrow night, and deeper moisture moving into the area Sunday and Monday favors higher rain chances and thus a greater potential for impacts into the middle of next week.

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 East/northeast winds will continue over the waters through the next several days, with no headlines expected. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each evening, with locally higher winds and rough seas expected near storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 Moisture will increase through the next few days, bringing higher rain chances. East/northeast winds will continue, with showers and storms moving westward through the day. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, with no Red Flag concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 90 74 88 / 20 60 30 80 FMY 74 89 74 89 / 30 60 50 80 GIF 73 91 73 90 / 10 50 10 80 SRQ 74 90 74 89 / 30 60 30 80 BKV 70 92 71 90 / 10 50 20 80 SPG 76 89 76 88 / 30 60 30 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.