textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Very wet pattern on tap with numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms for the next several days. Locally heavy rain and minor flooding possible.

- Increasing winds over the northeast Gulf late today and persisting through the remainder of the week will create hazardous boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The front is now stuck in the state over the state and will remain there for the rest of the week. This will keep overcast skies and humid conditions across the CWA. We will see high chances of rain through the week but this will not be like our typical summer time convection. The thicker cloud cover will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80's. This means temperatures will be around the same as water temps resulting in no real seabreeze setting up. Instead it will be more of an overrunning effect with on and off light to moderate showers through the day (and night). Some isolated storms can't be ruled out but this should be mainly a rain event. The biggest impacts will be felt on Wednesday and Thursday. Total rainfall through the rest of the week will be between 2-4 inches.

This front will finally lift north by the weekend. This will result in us returning to a more summertime weather pattern.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A cold front draped over the area makes for a "messy" forecast with on and off showers possible throughout the TAF period. Most of the activity should be rain. Any chance of thunderstorms should be in our evening hours. Brief MVFR and IFR CIGS will be possible with shower activity.

MARINE

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A front will stall over Central Florida tonight. This will bring cloudy skies and widespread showers for most of the week. Winds will remain out of an easterly direction around 5 to 10 knots. The only exception will be our off shore northern waters where winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Deeper layer moisture in across the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 74 81 73 / 90 80 80 60 FMY 88 76 86 75 / 30 60 80 50 GIF 87 74 83 73 / 90 80 80 50 SRQ 87 75 84 73 / 90 90 90 70 BKV 84 70 82 69 / 90 90 80 50 SPG 85 75 82 73 / 90 80 90 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.