textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until Saturday evening for hazardous winds and seas. Inexperienced boaters should remain out of the water until conditions improve.

- Warming trend expected over the weekend and into the first half of next week.

- The next frontal boundary moves through on Tuesday bringing the next chance of showers and storms to the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

We will have one more cold morning before a warm up sets up over Florida. Early morning low temps will drop into the mid to upper 30's along the Nature Coast and mid 40's to mid 50's for central and southwest Florida. Later today, a zonal upper pattern sets up over Florida as surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest over Florida and into the eastern Gulf producing continued rain-free conditions through the weekend. This will also bring a further shift in winds to a more northeast through east direction and will allow for a gradual warm up for the latter part of the weekend and into the first half of next week. Mild temperatures in the low 70's to around 80 expected this afternoon, then near average to slightly above average temps expected Sunday through Tuesday. By late Monday evening, models develop another area of low pressure over the northern gulf coast states and move it northeastward through the southeast U.S. toward the mid-Atlantic states. The associated cold front will move across Florida on Tuesday producing the next good chance of showers and isolated storms, with the highest coverage over the Nature Coast. This front clears the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as high pressure builds into the area. This will produce clearing conditions and a slight cool down for the mid to latter part of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 218 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR, rain-free conditions and northeast through east winds around 10 knots continue through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 218 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest over Florida and into the eastern gulf waters producing rain-free conditions through the weekend. Breezy east-northeast winds around 20 knots expected, which has warranted the continuance of the Small Craft Advisory through this evening. Decreasing winds to around 10- 15 knots expected on Sunday and into next week. The next cold front brings showers and storms to the area next Tuesday, but winds and seas should remain below headline criteria.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

High pressure ridges across Florida producing rain-free conditions through Monday. Moisture rebounds starting today with no other fire weather concerns anticipated over the weekend. The next chance of rain will be on Tuesday as another cold front moves across the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 62 84 65 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 80 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 75 60 83 64 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 79 61 84 64 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 76 53 83 58 / 0 0 10 10 SPG 76 64 81 67 / 0 0 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.