textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters over the next several days.
- A cooler and drier airmass with below average temperatures will continue through most of the week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 709 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
We are seeing another cool and dry morning across the state. This is due to a strong high pressure to our north and a low pressure in the Atlantic helping to funnel the cooler and drier air over Florida. This pattern will not change through Thursday resulting in the dry air with below average temperatures sticking around. Lows will be around 60 degrees every morning and highs around 80's.
By Friday an upper level low will push through the state from north to south. With the drier air in place we will not see any noticeable differences as it does so. However once it gets down to the stall boundary south of the Keys it will help to restrengthen the boundary and shift it northward. This will bring very breezy conditions for the weekend and on Monday. Sustained winds in the afternoon will be between 20 to 25 knots with gust between 30 to 35. This strong easterly flow will also bring some showers mainly to the east coast. For our CWA most will stay dry except for the interior which will see some isolated shower chances.
MARINE
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Winds will remain around 10 to 15 knots through Friday. However we could still see some night surges closer to 20 knots. On Friday an upper level low will push through the state helping to pick up the winds Friday night. By Saturday morning winds over the water will be 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30 knots. This gusty winds will stick around through at least Monday bringing some hazardous boating conditions.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Dry air will be in place through Sunday and the work week with gusty winds out of the northeast.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 61 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 84 66 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 83 60 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 82 63 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 82 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 82 65 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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