textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler weather expected through the weekend. - Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters starting Monday and continuing into most of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

It was a pretty chilly day for Floridians with afternoon highs struggling to reach 70 degrees and staying well into the 60s area-wide. Conditions tonight will be a few degrees cooler with a lot of interior locations expected to drop below 50 degrees. Northerly winds prevail and increase during the day on Sunday. Temperatures in the afternoon should warm up and range from the upper 60s across the Nature Coast to mid to upper 70s. Warming continuing over the next few days as high pressure builds.

No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 A sunny and cool afternoon continues across the local area as high pressure builds into the southeast. Temperatures will only warm into the 60s this afternoon, then for tonight, temperatures will be chilly once again. Winds will be fairly light and have a bit more of a northeast component, so expect lows tomorrow morning to be a couple of degrees cooler than today's. Still looking at upper 30s to around 40 in the colder spots, with mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. Highs tomorrow afternoon will then be back into the upper 60s to mid 70s as we start to moderate.

For Monday and Tuesday, some shortwave energy moves across the region as ridging remains to the north. A cutoff low is then forecast to form over the western Atlantic through the end of the week while a surface disturbance also tries to develop. As far as sensible impacts to our local weather, we're really just expecting the warming trend to continue through the week, with temperatures increasing back to normal and then above normal by Wednesday. Moisture will also increase so humidity will be higher and we'll also see a few showers here and there, but rainfall amounts are expected to be low.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail with north to northeasterly winds in place through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 50 72 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 52 77 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 49 75 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 51 74 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 43 72 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 55 73 60 77 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.