textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week.

- Rain chances increase today and Sunday, with mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms possible each day into next week.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Currently at the surface, a broad ridge of high pressure is setting up over the western Atlantic northeast of Florida and will hold in place through at least the middle of the week. This pattern is allowing temperatures to warm up above normal, with highs forecast to top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s each day.

The position of the sub-tropical ridge will favor east and southeast flow across the forecast area, which will work to increase moisture and rain chances through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop this afternoon, then much more numerous rain coverage is anticipated Sunday afternoon. With weaker flow today, the sea breeze collision and therefore highest rain chances will generally be over the interior. As easterly flow increases Sunday through early next week, the axis of highest rain chances will setup farther west along and near the Interstate 75 corridor. Towards the middle of the week, atmospheric moisture will moderate slightly. While the easterly flow will keep the location and timing of greatest rain chances similar to what will be seen Sunday and Monday, rain coverage is forecast to be less numerous Tuesday through Thursday.

By Friday, a front will approach and will stall out north of the state, shifting the surface ridge to the east. This will turn the flow regime to more southeasterly or southerly, shifting the sea breeze collision back into the interior.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will hold today. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon and could threaten area terminals, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

High pressure setting up northeast of Florida will hold through at least the first half of next week, bringing east and southeast winds, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Wind speeds will generally remain below headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms could shift west into the coastal waters during the afternoon and early evening hours, causing locally higher winds and rough boating conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

High pressure is setting up northeast of Florida, generating easterly flow that will allow moisture to gradually increase through the weekend. Relative humidity percentages will drop into the upper 30s in a few spots this afternoon, but critically low humidity is not forecast. Chances of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will increase today and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 75 91 75 / 10 10 60 30 FMY 94 74 94 74 / 10 10 80 30 GIF 93 73 91 72 / 30 30 60 30 SRQ 91 73 92 73 / 0 0 60 30 BKV 95 70 93 69 / 30 20 60 20 SPG 92 76 93 76 / 10 0 60 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.