textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures and humid conditions will create dangerous heat index values during each of the next few afternoons.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with dangerous lightning will develop each day through the next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 810 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues across the Nature Coast this morning, with some totals in portions of Central Citrus County already exceeding 3 to 4 inches this morning. However, the areas that have seen the highest rainfall amounts have seen a break in the heaviest rainfall. Nevertheless, localized flooding will remain a concern in more urbanized areas of Citrus County through the remainder of the morning hours.

As the day progresses, the expectation is the clusters of thunderstorms will continue drifting farther southward into Central FL and perhaps even eventually SWFL. However, diurnal heating also favors new convection developing along sea breeze boundaries farther south and across the interior. The main concern will be for additional heavy rainfall to occur through the day with a saturated atmosphere and the possibility of training multicellular clusters of thunderstorms.

As storms clear out from the Nature Coast, the warm and humid airmass left in their wake coupled with daytime heating favor heat indices reaching Heat Advisory Criteria this afternoon. Farther south, the slightly later thunderstorm timing (and additional cloud cover from storms over the interior) should help suppress the feels- like temperatures just enough to keep Heat Advisory criteria from being met.

Overall, current expectations remain consistent with the current forecast. No changes are needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

In the upper levels, a large blocking ridge will hold near the Southern Plains while a trough gradually deepens along the Eastern Seaboard. This upper level trough will support a series of surface lows northeast of Florida, that will help to keep the surface ridge displaced to the south of the forecast area. As a result, the area will remain locked into mainly westerly flow through the week and into the weekend. With deep moisture available, this westerly flow will support showers and storms developing over the eastern Gulf overnight each day and shifting into the coast at times through the morning hours before convection builds into the interior during the afternoon and evening hours.

Temperatures will remain warm through the next couple of days, topping out in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. With humid conditions in place, heat index values should exceed advisory levels over parts of the Nature Coast this afternoon and perhaps in isolated locations farther south, although cloud cover and thunderstorm activity during the morning and early afternoon may keep many locations below advisory criteria. With a similar setup on Tuesday, another Heat Advisory may be needed.

The persistent onshore flow will increase Wednesday through the end of the week in response to the building surface low north of Florida. As a result, the risk of rip currents are expected to increase through the second half of the week. Otherwise, temperatures should moderate slightly in response to the stronger onshore winds.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 810 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to move southward into the vicinity of Tampa Bay and central FL terminals this morning. The expectation is that off and on impacts will occur over the next few hours, with the activity slowly shifting more southward and into the interior through the day. With a WSW remaining in place, the best potential for showers and thunderstorms will continue to be in the morning for west coast terminals each day. The bulk of the activity should transition inland during the afternoon and into the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

High pressure over the central Gulf will slide south of the waters through the next few days as low pressure develops northeast of Florida. This will favor northwesterly and westerly winds through the week, with showers and storms developing over the coastal waters during the late night hours and shifting onshore through the morning. The pressure gradient will increase on Wednesday, with winds building to Cautionary or Advisory levels at times through the second half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Westerly flow continues through the week, with showers and storms shifting onshore from the Gulf at times through the morning, then scattered to numerous storms building over the interior through the afternoon and evening hours. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 81 92 82 / 70 40 40 20 FMY 92 79 91 80 / 30 50 60 10 GIF 93 77 95 79 / 70 20 60 10 SRQ 92 79 92 80 / 50 50 40 20 BKV 93 77 94 78 / 60 30 40 20 SPG 90 80 90 82 / 60 40 40 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.