textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- High risk of dangerous rip currents along area beaches through this evening.

- Lower rain chances today, then scattered to numerous storms return for Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Currently at the surface, Tropical Storm Bertha is continuing to slide west along the Louisiana coast, while Atlantic high pressure is ridging west across the Florida Peninsula into the northwestern Gulf. This pattern is keeping light east to southeast flow in place, although swells from Bertha are moving west into area beaches and will continue the risk of rip currents today. With pockets of drier air lingering aloft, rain coverage today is forecast to be lower than normal for late July, with scattered coverage expected over southwest Florida, and only isolated coverage through the rest of the forecast area. Moisture will increase from the south on Friday and Saturday, allowing rain coverage to increase, mainly over the southern two thirds of the forecast area.

Sunday through early next week, a frontal boundary will stall out north of the forecast area as the surface ridge slides southeast of Florida. This will shift the flow pattern to westerly across the forecast area. Under this pattern, a few showers or storms will develop over the eastern Gulf and will shift into the coastal areas during the late night and early morning hours. Scattered to numerous storms will then continue to develop and shift inland through the afternoon and early evening hours each day.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 735 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR continues through the morning. Chance of showers/storms early to mid afternoon for TPA/PIE/SRQ as W FL sea breeze develops and pushes inland, followed by higher chance of another round in the evening as combination of remnant E FL sea breeze and land breeze push offshore. Best shower/storm chances for remaining terminals late afternoon through evening as sea breeze driven convection pushes west across terminals. Winds generally easterly morning into afternoon before turning onshore along the coast with the sea breeze, becoming easterly to light/variable overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Seas of 4-5 feet will continue today as swells shift east into the waters from Tropical Storm Bertha. Seas will subside overnight and into Friday as Bertha dissipates and Atlantic high pressure ridges into the northeastern Gulf. This will setup easterly flow around 10 knots or less, turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze. The ridge will shift south this weekend, bringing westerly flow that will hold through early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Generally east and southeast flow will hold through the rest of the week, turning onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Drier air aloft will limit rain chances today, then moisture and rain chances will increase on Friday for areas south of Interstate 4, while the northern half of the area continues to see lower rain coverage. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 78 94 79 / 20 20 50 30 FMY 96 77 94 77 / 30 20 70 30 GIF 96 76 95 77 / 10 10 50 10 SRQ 95 76 95 77 / 30 20 60 30 BKV 96 72 96 74 / 20 10 40 20 SPG 94 78 94 80 / 20 30 50 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.