textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The showers and thunderstorms are moving out to the northwest with some lingering areas of light rain across the central parts of the area at this time. All of this precipitation will come to an end by midnight with partly to mostly cloudy skies for the rest of the night. Sunday looks similar to today with southeast flow and abundant moisture leading to more numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms moving northwest across the region. Current forecast looks good with no adjustments needed at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Convection is winding down with just some light rain expected at the TAF sites for the next few hours. VFR conditions should prevail through Sunday morning, then more numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the region Sunday afternoon and evening. MVFR/occasional IFR conditions will accompany the convection along with gusty erratic winds. Light east to southeast winds overnight will increase to 5 to 10 knots mid to late morning Sunday. Expect the bay/sea breeze to develop during the early afternoon shifting winds to onshore at TPA, PIE, and SRQ before convection arrives later in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A rather wet summertime pattern is setting up for much of the upcoming week as deep moisture, precipitable water >= 2 inches, with a southeasterly flow holds across the region. This will lead to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day moving out into the gulf at night. Highest rain chances should be along the coastal counties each day where the sea breeze collision occurs. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main issue if storms line up over an area leading to flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas. Otherwise, no widespread severe weather is expected, but some of the storms could become rather strong and produce gusty winds up to 50 mph, with an isolated severe wind gust up to 60 mph not out of the question.

MARINE

Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

High pressure will hold over the waters through the upcoming week with relatively light winds and seas. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous mainly evening and overnight showers and thunderstorms which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

No fire weather hazards are expected. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels through the period. Numerous to widespread mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 91 77 91 / 60 80 40 80 FMY 77 93 76 93 / 30 80 30 80 GIF 76 93 76 92 / 30 60 30 80 SRQ 76 93 75 92 / 60 80 50 80 BKV 73 93 73 92 / 50 70 40 80 SPG 78 91 77 90 / 60 80 50 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.