textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters today and continuing through the weekend and into early next week.

- Becoming breezy areawide with a slight chance of showers interior and southwest Florida over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Longwave trough down the Eastern Seaboard into the S Gulf will hold for another day before slowly moving to the FL E Coast as another shortwave digs into the base creating a brief cutoff upper low over the northern Bahamas into Monday. The system will then gradually weaken, open up, and lift northeast by the middle of next week. An upper ridge will build back over the region to end the week.

Strong high pressure building into the Deep South will interact with an old frontal boundary across the Florida straits tightening the pressure gradient over the FL Peninsula through the weekend. Expect gusty NE winds across the forecast area for the weekend and into early next week, with the strongest winds at the coast and over the coastal waters. Showers moving onto the E coast of FL in the breezy NE flow will likely dissipate as they move inland with slight chance PoPs.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected to continue with mostly clear and occasionally gusty NE winds through the evening surge before decoupling overnight then similar conditions Sat.

MARINE

Strong winds and building large choppy seas will keep hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters through the weekend and into early next week. The pressure gradient tightens further with wind gusts strengthening to near gale force Saturday night through Monday evening small craft operators should remain in port until conditions improve later next week. The offshore wind flow will also cause tides to run below astronomical levels as well.

FIRE WEATHER

Gusty NE winds and dry conditions will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Low level moisture will slowly increase with minimum RH above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 61 82 68 84 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 65 84 69 86 / 0 0 0 20 GIF 61 83 68 85 / 0 10 20 20 SRQ 62 82 68 85 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 59 82 67 84 / 0 10 10 10 SPG 63 81 69 83 / 0 0 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound- Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.