textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms continue. - A summertime pattern will continue through mid week. Potential for some drier air by late in the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Most of the convection is near or at the coast and should continue to move offshore over the next few hours. Calm conditions are anticipated overnight, but low clouds may develop overnight and into the early in the morning. A gradual warm up is expected as area of low pressure moves out of the area. Lows will be a degree or two warmer, but afternoon highs will remain fairly the same. Showers and storms return to the area later in the afternoon and evening.

No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Showers and storms continue to move offshore with most of the convection dissipating along the way. This trend should continue over the next few hours with VFR conditions prevailing overnight and into the early morning hours. There is a non-zero chance for low clouds to develop going a few hours before sunrise, but confidence is not high enough at this time to add it to the forecast. Chances of showers and storms return to terminals by the late afternoon and into the evening spreading from south to north. Intermittent MVFR/Ifr cigs and vis along with gusty winds possible near thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 75 89 76 90 / 40 40 20 50 FMY 75 90 76 89 / 40 50 30 70 GIF 73 91 74 91 / 40 40 30 60 SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 40 40 30 50 BKV 72 91 73 91 / 30 40 20 50 SPG 76 89 77 89 / 30 40 30 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.