textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 845 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Very wet pattern on tap with numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms for the next several days. Locally heavy rain and minor flooding possible.

- Increasing winds over the northeast Gulf late today and persisting through the remainder of the week will create hazardous boating conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 845 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

No changes planned for the evening update, with continuing widespread rainy conditions this evening associated with a quasi- stationary frontal boundary over the area remaining largely in line with the existing forecast. A few areas of heavier totals have been observed, particularly across coastal and SW Manatee/NW Sarasota counties, where radar estimates and local gauges indicate up to 2-4 inches of rain have fallen. A west to east oriented band of rain with embedded heavier downpours extends from the eastern Gulf into WC/SWFL from around Tampa southward to around S Sarasota/N Charlotte counties, while another similarly oriented band extends ashore from the Gulf across Levy/Citrus/Hernando counties and points inland. While most rainfall rates are not excessive under these bands, the training nature may lead to flooding from excessive runoff in poor drainage areas that have already received upwards of 3+ inches so far this evening. Guidance indicates a brief reprieve for some areas overnight as coverage and rates diminish somewhat, however rain chances area wide remain 30-50% or higher, therefore scattered to locally numerous showers and a few storms look to remain possible for most areas overnight into Wednesday morning, when another round looks to get going.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The front is now stuck in the state over the state and will remain there for the rest of the week. This will keep overcast skies and humid conditions across the CWA. We will see high chances of rain through the week but this will not be like our typical summer time convection. The thicker cloud cover will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80's. This means temperatures will be around the same as water temps resulting in no real seabreeze setting up. Instead it will be more of an overrunning effect with on and off light to moderate showers through the day (and night). Some isolated storms can't be ruled out but this should be mainly a rain event. The biggest impacts will be felt on Wednesday and Thursday. Total rainfall through the rest of the week will be between 2-4 inches.

This front will finally lift north by the weekend. This will result in us returning to a more summertime weather pattern.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Cloudy and rainy through the majority of the period with periods of MVFR/LCL IFR conditions likely as a frontal boundary remains over the C FL peninsula and attendant terminals. Precise boundary location will be the primary determinant of wind direction through the cycle, with E/NE flow to its north and S/SW flow southward. While rain/showers will be possible throughout most of the period given the deep moisture in place, greatest thunderstorm potential will likely coincide with maximum daytime heating, from mid to late afternoon through early evening.

MARINE

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A front will stall over Central Florida tonight. This will bring cloudy skies and widespread showers for most of the week. Winds will remain out of an easterly direction around 5 to 10 knots. The only exception will be our off shore northern waters where winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Deeper layer moisture in across the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 81 73 80 / 80 80 60 80 FMY 76 86 75 86 / 60 80 50 90 GIF 74 83 73 83 / 80 80 50 90 SRQ 75 84 73 83 / 90 90 70 90 BKV 70 82 69 81 / 90 80 50 80 SPG 75 82 73 81 / 80 90 60 90

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.