textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue areawide.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week mainly interior and southwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A weak frontal boundary remains stretched across north Florida. This feature lies between high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states and weak high pressure in the central Gulf. Isolated showers and a stray storm possible during the early morning hours in the vicinity of this boundary. Onshore flow will persist through the day, combined with abundant moisture with PW values around 1.5-1.9 inches will support scattered afternoon/evening showers and isolated storms, with the highest chances over the interior and southwest Florida.

By Friday morning, the frontal boundary washes out as broad high pressure near Bermuda ridges west-southwest across central Florida and into the central Gulf. This will produce a southeast to southwest wind flow across the region. Scattered showers and storms will develop during the afternoon with a 40-60 percent chance regionwide.

By Saturday morning, the high pressure center has shifted northward and the ridge axis will extend westward across north central Florida and bring a shift in the winds to the northeast through southeast direction. This pattern will favor the development of showers and storms over the interior and push them westward along the west coast of Florida during the afternoon and evening hours, hopefully bringing in some rainfall deficit relief to the dry conditions. This pattern will persist through the weekend and into the first half of next week.

Temperatures will remain quite hot topping out in the low to mid 90s with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees each afternoon. Not much relief expected overnight with low temperatures also remaining quite warm and muggy only dipping into the mid 70s to around 80 each night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Some showers and few storms have been firing off of Tampa Bay early this morning. Will hold VCSH for TPA/PIE/SRQ through the morning, then VCTS after 18Z. More showers and storms expected during the afternoon as well, so will hold VCTS at all terminals after 18Z and continuing through at least 00Z. Winds generally remaining 10 knots or less through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Outside of a few showers and storms, pleasant boating conditions expected through the week and into the weekend. Winds will remain around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than 10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 80 94 80 / 20 10 40 10 FMY 93 77 95 78 / 50 20 50 40 GIF 94 75 95 76 / 50 40 60 30 SRQ 93 78 94 79 / 30 10 30 10 BKV 95 74 95 74 / 30 10 50 10 SPG 92 80 94 81 / 20 10 30 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.