textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical Depression #2 in the eastern Gulf is currently moving slowly to the northwest a turn toward the west away from the Florida peninsula is expected some time tomorrow.

- Unsettled weather will continue today. Strong gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning are likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Showers and storms continue this afternoon as Tropical Depression 2 churns in the eastern Gulf. A few breaks in the clouds today have allowed for a little extra heating which has led to some of the current afternoon thudnerstorms to be more robust. Strong gusty winds and frequent lightning have been common as the storms move quickly to the north. TD2 will continue to drift slowly to the northwest today before turning more westward sometime tomorrow. With the turn taking TD2 further from Florida west coast, showers and storms will likely be confined to the immediate coast and north of I4 tomorrow. By Wednesday, dry air begins to filter in which will limit rain chances for most of the forecast area. Unfortunately, with the limited rain chances, temperatures will once again reach into the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Fast moving showers and storms likely through the remainder of the afternoon. Many storms observed so far have been gusty with frequent lightning. Conditions begin to clear overnight, with a few showers lingering especially along the coast. Gusty, southwest winds expected tomorrow, though shower activity will be less.

MARINE

Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Hazardous marine conditions continue with strong gusty winds, scattered showers and storms and high seas expected for the remainder of the day into the evening. Conditions begin to clear Wednesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Abundant low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 89 80 92 / 40 30 10 10 FMY 79 92 77 92 / 20 10 10 20 GIF 77 93 75 95 / 10 30 10 10 SRQ 80 91 79 91 / 40 30 10 10 BKV 76 93 74 94 / 20 30 10 10 SPG 80 89 80 90 / 50 40 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.