textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 750 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the next week.

- Onshore flow will continue through the weekend and the first half of next week, keeping the highest storm chances over inland areas each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours.

UPDATE

Issued at 750 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Forecast on track this evening requiring no changes. Ongoing showers/storms currently stretch southward from Polk down through parts of Hardee/DeSoto/Highlands counties. Outflow moving generally westward across W FL will maintain a slight chance of a shower or storm for points westward over the next couple of hours before diminishing into tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Westerly boundary layer flow will continue through the weekend and into early next week as the surface ridge axis remains across south Florida. This will keep the trend of overnight/early morning showers over the Gulf with the best storm chances inland later in the day as the west coast sea breeze advances eastward. Through the rest of the week, the ridge axis does shift back north a bit and some relatively drier air moves over the region, which will help lower rainfall chances.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Ongoing convection near LAL could cause brief category impacts over the next hour or two, then VFR expected for all terminals through Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon/evening convection likely to focus inland of Tampa Bay area terminals, with impacts likely limited to LAL and SWFL terminals afternoon into early evening before diminishing.

MARINE

Issued at 334 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 High pressure will prevail with no headlines expected. Winds remain westerly for the next several days, with the best rain chances overnight into the morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 334 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative humidity values remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 91 80 91 / 10 10 10 10 FMY 77 90 78 91 / 30 30 10 10 GIF 76 93 76 93 / 50 40 10 30 SRQ 79 90 79 91 / 10 10 0 10 BKV 77 93 78 92 / 10 10 10 20 SPG 80 91 80 91 / 10 10 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.