textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Very limited rain chances area wide through Monday, with chances returning on Tuesday across southern locations. - Drier and relatively cooler air mass remains across the area through Monday before gradually moderating.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026 A low pressure system continues off the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon with weak high pressure over Florida. Some higher clouds continue to stream across the region, but otherwise the weather across the region is similar to yesterday, with relatively drier air keeping more comfortable conditions in place. As we head into tomorrow and the next few days, low pressure over the northeast will continue to pull away as another system develops over the southwestern U.S. The Atlantic surface high will re-establish north of the state, with a southeast to east low-level flow setting up across the local area starting Tuesday. This will allow temperatures to moderate back to near-normal values and will also increase moisture, bringing a return to daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday into next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026 No headlines are expected through the next couple of days with light winds and seas in place across the waters. Rain chances remain low until Tuesday, with shower and storms chances increasing through the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026 Fire weather concerns remain low for the next few days. After a relatively dry couple of days, moisture will slowly increase this week, bringing a return of shower and thunderstorm chances, especially for Tuesday and beyond.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 88 72 89 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 69 89 72 88 / 0 0 10 50 GIF 65 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 70 87 72 88 / 0 0 0 30 BKV 65 88 69 89 / 0 10 0 10 SPG 73 86 74 87 / 0 0 0 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.


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