textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly in the afternoon to early evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is centered east of the Carolinas, and will largely hold in place through the week, keeping firm control on the weather pattern for the area. With the ridge to the northeast of Florida, east and southeast flow will result in above normal temperatures with highs topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s each day through the forecast period. This flow pattern will also bring chances of mainly afternoon and early evening showers each day, mostly along sea breeze and outflow boundaries.

For today, a pocket of dry air will move west off the Atlantic into northern Florida, prohibiting significant rain chances for areas north of Interstate 4. For the southern half of the area, more favorable atmospheric moisture will result in scattered to numerous shower and storms this afternoon, with the highest rain chances close to the west coast with the sea breeze collision. Tuesday through Thursday, deeper moisture will wrap back into northern Florida from the Atlantic, allowing for isolated to scattered storm chances over the northern half of the forecast area, while deeper moisture to the south will bring scattered to numerous storms each afternoon, with the greatest storm coverage just inland of the west coast in the late afternoon.

Late in the week and into the weekend, a frontal boundary will stall out north of Florida, shifting the sub-tropical ridge slightly east. This will result in the flow pattern becoming weaker and slightly more southeasterly, shifting the highest rain chances farther inland than what will be seen earlier in the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 811 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Some drier air will be filter in to West Central Florida today limiting shower chances for our northern TAF sites. Higher moisture remain in Southwest Florida where we could see another round of scatter showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Winds will be out the east with occasional gusts up to 20 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 322 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

High pressure will hold northeast of Florida through the week, with east and southeast flow continuing, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze circulation. Winds and seas will generally hold less than headline criteria, although there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms moving west into the coastal waters each day during the late afternoon and early evening hours, causing locally higher winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 322 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

A slightly drier air mass will shift west into northern Florida today, limiting rain chances north of Interstate 4 and dropping relative humidity to near critically low level this afternoon. South of I-4, humidity will be slightly higher, with scattered afternoon showers and storms. Moisture and humidity increases again on Tuesday, resulting in scattered to widespread showers and storms across the area in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 75 92 75 / 20 10 50 10 FMY 93 74 93 74 / 50 20 70 20 GIF 92 72 91 72 / 20 0 30 10 SRQ 93 73 93 73 / 40 20 50 20 BKV 94 70 94 69 / 10 0 50 0 SPG 94 75 94 76 / 20 10 50 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.