textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 831 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Moderate to high rip current risk Thursday into Friday.

- Moderate to high heat index values expected to reach up to 105-110 daily into the weekend.

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms increase Thursday through the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Cirrus shield from TS Arthur to continue over the region with VFR conditions expected with decreasing SSW winds tonight. Winds increase and become gusty again aft 14Z Thu with SCT cu developing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Southwesterly winds with PW around 1.7 will continue today and tomorrow. This will result in lower rain shower chances with the highest totals inland and along the east coast. The strong southwesterly flow will result in winds coming off the warm Gulf water overnight. This will keep overnight lows near 80 degrees near the coast. This warmer start coupled with lower shower chances will result in above average temperatures and humidity. This will bring heat index near heat advisory criteria both tomorrow and Friday.

Starting on Friday we will see an increase in moisture with PWs reach around 2 inches. This will bring higher rainshower chances. However, we will still be in southwesterly flow. This will result in much of the shower activity staying inland and along the east coast.

Drier air will start to filter in on Monday lower rain shower chances as we continue to see southwesterly flow. Flow looks to turn more neutral on Tuesday which would favor storms closer to the west coast however the drier air in place will continue to keep our shower chances low.

MARINE

Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Winds are expected to pick up tomorrow morning and afternoon with speed peaking around 15 to 20 knots out of the southwest. Winds will start to go back down by Thursday night and stay around 5 to 10 knots out of the southwest for Friday and Saturday. Winds drop down even lower on Sunday to just around 5 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Summertime humidity and heat will continue however we are expecting dry conditions for the west coast of Florida for much of our work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 82 93 82 92 / 10 10 10 20 FMY 79 95 80 95 / 0 20 10 30 GIF 77 97 77 95 / 10 40 20 50 SRQ 81 93 80 93 / 0 10 10 20 BKV 78 97 78 94 / 10 20 20 20 SPG 82 93 82 92 / 10 10 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.