textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Very wet pattern on tap with numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms for the next several days. Locally heavy rain and minor flooding possible.

- Increasing winds over the northeast Gulf late today and persisting through the remainder of the week will create hazardous boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 A frontal boundary will sink slowly south across north Florida today, and will stall across the central Florida peninsula on Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture remains south of the boundary over the Florida peninsula with PCPW values in excess of 2.25 inches, and this is not expected to change for the next several days. The enhanced lift provided by the frontal boundary will generate numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms across west central Florida and southwest Florida each day through the week, and possibly into the weekend. Showers/storms will redevelop over the coastal waters each night and will advect locally onshore, with the best chance during the late night/early morning hours.

Quite a bit of uncertainty in the extended range as much will depend on the speed/intensity of an area of low pressure expected to develop over the southwest Gulf over the next couple of days. Although the system is expected to remain well west of the forecast area, it will aid in lifting the frontal boundary stalled across west central Florida back to the north. Could also see increasing swells across the coastal waters depending on the overall strength of the system as it moves over the central/north central Gulf late in the week or over the weekend, as timing also remains uncertain.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 LCL IFR CIGs vcnty TPA/PIE/LAL for the next several hours along with a few showers with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. Otherwise VFR CIGs at all terminals the remainder of the night. Increasing chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms vcnty TPA/PIE/SRQ late tonight/early Tuesday morning with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs...with likely showers/storms mid morning into the early afternoon. Showers/storms will spread inland throughout the day and will likely impact all terminals including southwest Florida by early afternoon with periods of MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 A frontal boundary will sink south over the northeast Gulf today with numerous to widespread showers/thunderstorms. Gradient will begin to tighten late in the day with increasing northeast winds, and periods of hazardous conditions for small craft will occur through the remainder of the week...with SCA conditions possible late in the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as deep tropical moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 74 81 74 / 90 80 90 70 FMY 88 76 86 75 / 50 60 90 70 GIF 87 74 84 74 / 80 70 80 60 SRQ 87 74 84 73 / 80 80 90 70 BKV 84 70 82 70 / 90 90 80 70 SPG 85 75 82 74 / 90 80 90 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.