textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

-Drier on will fill in today but a few showers and storms are expected to develop over southwest Florida. -Unsettled weather is expected at times this weekend with daily showers and storm chances.

-Much cooler and drier air arrives early next week in the wake of a strong cold front.

UPDATE

Issued at 1004 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Abundant low level moisture has kept a stubborn stratus deck in place this morning for the southern half of the area, but recent satellite imagery shows that this is starting to scatter out somewhat. Hi-res guidance continues to show some potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms by late afternoon and evening along the sea breeze collision, which is expected to be on the western side of the peninsula later today. This activity should remain sub-severe given weak shear values but with moderate instability values around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, a few of the taller cores could contain some gusty winds given the dry air in the mid levels indicated in recent sounding data. Otherwise, the northeasterly low-level flow will keep the Gulf sea breeze from pushing inland too quickly today and thus, highs will above normal once again with most areas reaching the mid 80s this afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The front that pushed through the area yesterday remains stalled over south Florida and will likely linger over the weekend. Though drier air has begun to filter in over the northern portions of the forecast area, deep moisture will remain over the southern portion thanks to the stalled front. The deep moisture with diurnal heating could lead to scattered showers and isolated storms over SWFL. Though morning temperatures will feel a bit cooler, afternoon temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 80s. Rain chances will continue to increase for more of the forecast area as the stalled front shifts north and a warm front moves in from the south.

A second cold front will move through Monday into Tuesday. Unlike the current front that brought little change in temperature, this next front will usher in much cooler air. Low temperatures will drop back into the 40s and 50s through the end of next week. Wednesday morning is currently forecasted to be the coldest morning with upper 30s expected for the northern most counties.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 744 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Occasional MVFR CIGs this morning will improve to VFR by the late morning or early afternoon hours. Isolated to scattered shra/tsra may occur at SWFL terminals later today from 21Z-00Z but rain will taper off afterwards. Areas of patchy fog and/or low clouds then may develop Saturday morning with prolonged flight restrictions possible depending on where this develops.

MARINE

Issued at 301 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Marine conditions remain poor as winds and seas remain elevated. Winds will slowly begin to decrease throughout the day, followed by seas. Conditions once again deteriorate by the end of the weekend into early next week as a stronger cold front moves through. Likely reaching advisory levels following the cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 301 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Slightly drier air has begun to filter in behind the front. However, f ire weather concerns still remain low as RH values remain above critical levels. A second cold front moves through early next week and looks to usher in even cooler and drier air in its wake. Current forecast indicated RH values should be just above critical levels during this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 83 67 83 69 / 10 10 60 30 FMY 86 68 86 68 / 40 20 70 30 GIF 83 66 83 66 / 20 10 70 30 SRQ 84 67 83 68 / 20 20 60 30 BKV 84 60 84 62 / 10 10 60 30 SPG 83 70 83 70 / 20 10 60 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.