textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Near record high temperatures with high heat index values through Friday.
- Drier air moving into the area will limit rain chances through Friday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Isolated TSRA to weaken in VC of LAL by 01Z, then VFR conditions all areas tonight and THU with clearing skies. Light and variable winds tonight to seabreeze THU but dry air aloft will significantly limit rain chances so will keep terminals rain free.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Weak mid-level ridging remains over the region this afternoon while the surface ridge axis stretches across the southern Florida peninsula. Also in play for the next couple of days will be a Saharan air layer that will push west into the state, bringing drier conditions aloft and lowering rain chances. For the rest of today, we'll see scattered storms mainly east of I-75, but rain chances are basically out of the forecast entirely for Thursday.
As we head toward the end of the week and into the weekend, the surface ridge will drift northward while we also get some moisture return. This will lead to a more southeasterly background wind and an increase in rain chances, with the best chances inland as the sea breeze moves eastward each afternoon. Rain chances increase further for early next week as a frontal boundary stalls over north Florida.
MARINE
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure will keep light winds in place for the next several days with no headlines expected. Rain chances remain low through tomorrow, then gradually increase starting Friday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Rain chances will remain limited over the next couple of days with relatively drier air in place. Fire weather concerns are low, however, as relative humidity values will still remain above critical levels.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 96 81 96 / 10 10 0 40 FMY 78 97 78 97 / 10 10 10 70 GIF 77 97 76 97 / 20 10 0 30 SRQ 79 95 79 96 / 0 0 0 60 BKV 75 97 76 98 / 10 10 0 20 SPG 81 95 81 96 / 0 10 0 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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