textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight rain chances Thursday, then higher rain chances Sunday into Monday.

- Late night and early morning fog will be possible on land each day into the weekend.

- Sea fog will be possible from around Tampa Bay north off the Nature Coast tonight into Thursday morning, and again over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

A little shift in the patter today as an upper level disturbance moves across the region, bringing some extra moisture. A weak cold front will also drift south over North Florida today, stalling over the region into Friday. A few isolated showers could be possible tonight into tomorrow. Fog will also be likely overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, with some areas being dense causing low visibility for the morning commute. Sea fog could also develop along the nature coast then move south towards Tampa Bay early in the morning.

Over the weekend another cold front will move through bringing a better chance of rain Sunday into Monday. A few thunderstorms could also be possible as the system moves through. Unlike the previous cold fronts, temperatures will only drop a couple degrees behind the front as dry air moves in. High pressure builds back in by Tuesday keeping conditions warm and dry through mid week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the afternoon. Areas of fog are expected to develop late tonight/ early tomorrow morning and could cause IFR/local LIFR conditions. Visibility should improve by mid morning.

MARINE

Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Quiet marine conditions continue through remain of the week. A few showers could move over the water tonight and tomorrow as a weak front moves over the area. Winds will remain light. A stronger cold front moves through Sunday, with winds increasing to around advisory levels for a short period of time. Sea fog is likely to develop tonight along the nature coast then push south towards Tampa Bay by early morning. By early next week, high pressure builds back in and conditions become quiet once again.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Moisture continues to increase today and tomorrow as cold front moves over the area. RH values will remain above critical levels through the remainder of the week, with winds less than 15 mph expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 59 73 58 76 / 10 30 0 10 FMY 56 76 58 78 / 0 10 0 10 GIF 57 76 56 77 / 0 30 0 20 SRQ 57 72 57 75 / 0 20 0 10 BKV 52 75 49 77 / 10 30 0 10 SPG 61 71 61 74 / 0 30 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.