textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 730 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the next week.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop each afternoon this week, with the highest rain chances generally over the interior.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

No changes planned for the evening update. Westerly flow across the area today has kept afternoon and early evening convection generally confined to E FL locations with dry conditions prevailing across the local W FL area. Mild temps overnight with lows in the mid 70s to lower 80s with lingering mid/upper clouds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Strong ridging to our south will keep southwesterly flow in place through much of our work week. This will result in storm chances mainly over the interior and east coast of Florida. If we see any showers on the east coast it will be during our morning hours as storms push on the coast from the Gulf. This regime will also keep our temperatures above average as the southwesterly flow will keep the wind coming off the warm Gulf waters overnight. This prevents overnight lows from dropping keeping most of us around 80 degrees when we wake up. This starts us out warmer then average in the morning, and with no rain showers in forecast, result in warmer afternoon high temperatures.

The best shot to see some rain for the west coast will be on Friday as the upper level flow switches more southeasterly for one day. However, this is short lived as winds shift southwesterly once again for the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR expected across terminals through the period with westerly flow keeping convection generally east of terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Not much changing through our work week. Winds will remain out of the west to southwest around to 15 knots. Best storm chances will be overnight and into the early morning hours along the land breeze boundary.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Summertime humidity and heat will continue however we are expecting dry conditions for the west coast of Florida for much of our work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 91 81 92 / 10 30 20 10 FMY 78 92 78 94 / 10 10 0 10 GIF 77 95 76 96 / 10 30 20 20 SRQ 80 91 79 93 / 10 10 10 0 BKV 78 93 76 95 / 10 20 20 10 SPG 81 92 81 92 / 10 20 20 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.