textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Late night/early morning patchy fog and low clouds will be possible the next few days.

- Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normal. - Afternoon and evening storm chances today for the northern Nature Coast and interior before area wide chances with a frontal boundary late Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 A stationary boundary persists across north Florida. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms will likely redevelop over the northern and central coastal waters late tonight and move locally onshore around sunrise. Onshore boundary layer flow will push the west coast sea breeze boundary inland a bit slower today with the chance for showers and thunderstorms developing by early/mid afternoon as the mid level cap begins to erode over the region. Interior areas will remain on the hot side with highs in the lower to mid 90s, but not quite as hot as Saturday due to a bit more high cloudiness over the region. Scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will push east through the afternoon and gradually increase in areal coverage with highest pops over the eastern interior. There is a marginal risk for severe storms today in Levy county and the far eastern interior, but the main threat should be just to the north and east of the forecast area.

An U/L disturbance will ride over the stationary boundary to the north early next week with the front beginning to sag south over the forecast area Monday night and Tuesday. Highest pops across the north in proximity to the frontal boundary and over the interior due to the onshore boundary layer flow with storms along the west coast sea breeze boundary.

High pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida mid/late week in the wake of the front with drier air advecting over the region. Very warm dry conditions expected under partly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the mid 80s at the coast to the lower 90s inland.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 Predominately VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. Isolated showers early this morning vcnty PIE/TPA will produce LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. Patchy low cloudiness with MVFR CIGs is also possible around sunrise vcnty all terminals. On Sunday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the early to mid afternoon hours with the best chance over the interior vcnty LAL...but most of the activity is expected to be north and east of all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 Weak gradient will persist over the waters through the period with relatively benign winds and seas...although thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. Best chance of storms will be Monday and Monday night across the northern waters with a few strong storms possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient low level moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 77 89 76 / 20 0 20 30 FMY 94 76 93 76 / 10 0 20 10 GIF 92 74 91 73 / 30 20 50 40 SRQ 89 75 89 74 / 10 0 20 20 BKV 91 69 90 68 / 20 10 20 40 SPG 90 78 90 77 / 20 0 20 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.