textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Moisture will continue to increase with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon into Saturday.

- Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters are expected over the weekend and continuing into next week.

- A cooler drier airmass with below average temperatures will arrive by Sunday and continue through most of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move west northwest across southwest Florida this evening. These will move out into the eastern gulf waters and come to an end on land by midnight. Otherwise, for the remainder of tonight we'll see partly to mostly cloudy skies with some patchy low clouds and fog possible toward morning. Any low cloud and fog will dissipate by mid-morning Friday with partly sunny skies and scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing in the afternoon as the west coast sea breeze moves inland. Highest chances look to be over the interior late in the afternoon and evening. Forecast looks ok at this time with no adjustments needed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will continue to move across southwest Florida and out into the eastern gulf waters for the next few hours and these could cause brief MVFR/local IFR conditions. Then late tonight into early Friday morning some areas of MVFR, possibly IFR, ceilings could develop. By Friday afternoon we'll begin to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across the area which could cause more MVFR/occasional IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. East winds at 4 to 7 knots overnight will shift to southeast at 5 to 10 knots by late morning and then westerly as the sea breeze moves inland during the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Surface high pressure remains in control this afternoon keeping conditions warm and mostly dry, though moisture has begun to creep up over SWFL. The increase in moisture combined with daytime heating will likely be enough to generate a some shower activity this afternoon with the possibility of some isolated thunderstorms. Convection will likely remain south of Tampa Bay as dry air remains to the north.

A pattern change is coming as a cold front makes its way towards the Southeast from the Mississippi River Valley. The high pressure currently running the show, will push east over the Atlantic tomorrow, shifting the flow more east, southeast. This will also allow moisture to increase for most of the area, leading to scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will finally arrive over the area Saturday bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms for the area.

High pressure quickly builds back in as the front exits to the south. The tight pressure gradient will lead to strong north to northeasterly winds over the area. The elevated winds will stick around through the weekend and into next week. Temperatures are also expected to cool down following the frontal passage. With daytime highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s expected well into next week. Humidity will also be lower as dry air filters in.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Light easterly flow continues today as high pressure remains over the area. Conditions begin to change tomorrow as a cold front approaches the waters Friday afternoon, moving through Saturday. Storm chances increases Friday and Saturday with the frontal passage. However, the bigger marine concern will be following the front as high pressure builds back in. The pressure gradient will tighten, causing north to northeast winds to increase to advisory levels by Saturday, lasting into next week. There is also a potential for gale force winds, 34kts or above, especially Sunday and Monday. Seas will have the potential to reach over 10ft.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal over the next several days as moisture increases over the area as a cold front approaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 75 88 75 81 / 10 30 40 50 FMY 76 90 76 84 / 30 50 40 70 GIF 74 91 74 83 / 10 60 40 50 SRQ 74 88 75 82 / 20 30 50 60 BKV 72 91 72 79 / 0 30 30 30 SPG 76 87 76 81 / 10 30 50 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.