textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased threat for locally heavy rain today through the weekend with potential for localized flooding, especially across the Nature Coast.

- Increasing onshore winds will lead to higher seas across coastal waters and a High Risk of Rip Currents at area beaches for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 A frontal boundary will stall across north central Florida today. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over the northern/central coastal waters late tonight/early Thursday morning and will push onshore in broad west to southwest flow. Locally heavy rain will be possible and may cause urban/street flooding, and flooding of low lying/flood prone areas. Slightly stronger winds over the near shore waters will also create a high risk of rip currents.

Similar pattern will remain in place for Friday with onshore boundary layer flow, deep tropical moisture over the forecast area, and scattered to numerous showers/storms re-developing over the northern/central coastal waters Thursday night and advecting onshore during the late night/early morning hours Friday. Locally heavy rain will again be possible with the potential for localized flooding. The high risk of rip currents along area beaches will also persist.

Over the weekend, an anomalously sharp U/L trough will dig over the eastern U.S. with an associated frontal boundary pushing across the southeast U.S. on Saturday, and stalling over the Florida panhandle on Sunday. This will enhance the deep southwest flow over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula and will create large scale lift across the region. This will aid in developing numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms over the northern/central coastal waters which will again move onshore much of west central Florida both Saturday and Sunday. This will also increase the risk for flooding from approximately the Sarasota/Bradenton area and north to Levy county. Heaviest rainfall totals will likely be near and along the coast.

The heavy rain threat will spill into early next week with additional U/L energy overriding the stalled frontal boundary. Residual deep layer moisture will hold over the forecast area on Tuesday with the shower/thunderstorm pattern going back to more typical sea breeze driven scenario along with storms forming due to afternoon boundary collisions under weak southerly boundary layer flow.

Some drier air aloft may finally work its way over the forecast area by mid week with boundary layer flow shifting to the southeast. Best chance for afternoon storms will be over southwest Florida in region of best deep layer moisture, and over the coastal counties along the west coast sea breeze boundary.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Predominately VFR CIGs around 250 for the remainder of the night at all terminals. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central coastal waters late tonight/early tomorrow morning and advect onshore potentially impacting TPA/PIE/SRQ for a few hours with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. Areal coverage of showers/storms over land will increase during the late morning/early afternoon with all terminals potentially impacted periodically throughout the day.

MARINE

Issued at 1212 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 West to southwest flow will persist through the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and shifting onshore mainly through the morning and early afternoon each day. Cautionary level winds will occur on portions of the waters for the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1212 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 81 89 79 / 80 50 50 50 FMY 90 79 91 78 / 50 10 10 10 GIF 91 76 92 76 / 80 50 50 40 SRQ 89 78 90 78 / 70 30 40 40 BKV 90 76 90 75 / 80 60 70 60 SPG 88 81 88 80 / 70 50 50 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.