textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical Depression #2 has formed in the eastern Gulf and is moving slowly to the north northwest, which is expected for the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west away from the Florida peninsula.

- Unsettled weather will continue today. Strong gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning are likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 West central and southwest Florida remain on the east side of Tropical Depression #2 which is centered about 155 miles south southeast of Panama City Florida. Deep layer southerly flow will persist for the next couple of days, with bands of showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters expected to move locally onshore with locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. The relatively strong onshore winds will create strong rip currents along area beaches through Tuesday.

As the system gradually exits west of the region late Tuesday and Wednesday, the eastern periphery of the bands of shower/thunderstorm activity will edge west off the mainland and will remain primarily over the northern/central coastal waters...as drier air aloft advects over the forecast area and lowers the chance of thunderstorms. The decreased cloud cover/rain will also allow daytime temperatures to climb back several degrees above climatic normals for mid/late week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 VFR CIGs will persist at TPA/PIE/SRQ through Monday. Some clearing is likely overnight at PGD/FMY/RSW/LAL, before increasing cloudiness occurs again on Monday. Bands of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region and will create brief LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs and possibly gusty winds...with the best chance through the morning hours at PIE/SRQ/PGD/RSW/FMY...and at all terminals on later in the day on Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 1208 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Hazardous marine conditions will continue over the coastal waters for the next couple of days due to Tropical Depression #2. Winds and seas will begin to subside Tuesday night and Wednesday as the system moves west of the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Abundant low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 80 91 80 / 70 40 40 10 FMY 92 79 94 78 / 60 20 20 10 GIF 94 77 95 76 / 50 10 20 0 SRQ 91 79 92 79 / 80 40 30 10 BKV 92 75 94 74 / 70 30 30 10 SPG 88 80 90 81 / 80 40 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.