textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 256 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

- Still plan for showers and thunderstorms each day and be prepared to alter outdoor events if lightning and thunder are seen or heard.

- A west southwest flow favors earlier storms for the FL West Coast, but overall shorter windows for thunderstorms into the weekend with some drier air sneaking in tomorrow.

- An ESE flow returns next week, with more typical thunderstorm timing returning once this occurs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Weak upper-level ridging remains to the east of the FL peninsula, effectively vertically stacked on top of the surface high. A light WSW flow has settled over the FL peninsula in response, keeping a very warm and humid pattern in place across the state. This is a slight change from what has been the pattern for the last week. The most notable adjustment is thunderstorm timing along the FL West Coast. The main time-frame for impacts along the I-75 corridor is in the morning until early afternoon before the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity shifts inland by late afternoon and into the evening.

However, an upper-level trough will dig south over the next couple days, suppressing the ridge axis farther to the south and east. So while a westerly flow will continue, the local flow should shift slightly more WNW. This slight change is just enough to favor a bit more dry air moving into the area. Thus, lower rain chances along the coast are expected, especially tomorrow. However, there still should be enough moisture to support a few showers at least, even if they don't grow very tall or last very long. Most near, though, probably won't see much.

This doesn't necessarily hold up for central areas of the Florida peninsula, however. Deeper moisture with colliding sea breeze boundaries will still favor scattered to even perhaps numerous thunderstorms in the late afternoon/evening. Thus, inland areas probably won't see a whole lot of change.

It looks like the ridge axis will likely remain suppressed farther south and east into early next week, meaning a westerly flow will continue. By early next week, it looks like ridging will build back in over the W Atlantic, suggesting more of an ESE flow again by the middle of next week. This would return showers and storms to a more typical afternoon/evening time frame that we often see in summer.

So while some synoptic influence can be noted over the next week, the overall result is fairly typical summertime weather. Some days will see more storm coverage than others, but there is nevertheless a chance each day. Regardless of storms, warm and humid conditions will continue as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Some shower and thunderstorm activity has been developing near coastal terminals. However, this will push to the east of coastal terminals in the next couple hours. Dry, VFR weather should then return through the rest of the evening. There will again be a window for some showers early tomorrow morning. However, it does look drier, so coverage will not be widespread and most storms shouldn't last long.

MARINE

Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

A westerly flow will continue across coastal waters through the weekend. This favors early morning showers and thunderstorms across coastal waters before those storms move inland and transition to the east. Away from thunderstorms where higher waves and seas should be expected, seas should be 2 feet or less with light winds of 5 to 10 knots. Early next week, a SE flow should return.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each day. With additional rainfall expected, soils should continue to absorb more water, and lower immediate concerns for dry fuels. With RH values remaining well above critical thresholds, and no significant concerns for strong winds to yield high dispersions, fire weather concerns are low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 89 78 88 / 20 30 20 40 FMY 76 92 77 90 / 30 20 10 20 GIF 75 91 76 89 / 30 50 20 50 SRQ 77 90 78 89 / 10 30 10 30 BKV 74 90 75 88 / 20 20 30 60 SPG 78 91 79 89 / 20 30 10 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.