textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Isolated to numerous showers and storms will develop today and Thursday from around Interstate 4 south, while drier air to the north will keep thunderstorm chances minimal.

- Gusty east to northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Upper level high pressure parked over the southeastern US this morning will gradually shift west late this week as an upper level low slides west into Florida from the Atlantic. At the surface, the sub-tropical ridge is currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic Coast, with a tight pressure gradient to the south of this ridge producing breezy east and northeast winds that will last through much of the rest of the work week. This flow pattern is pulling a notably drier airmass into the northern half of the forecast area, with PWAT values forecast to drop to around 1.0-1.5 this afternoon through Thursday afternoon. As a result, rain chances are forecast to remain minimal today and Thursday from around Interstate 4 north through the Nature Coast counties, while more seasonable moisture to the south of I-4 will allow for isolated to numerous showers and storms to develop each afternoon. Surface dew points will also drop slightly as well, so the air may feel somewhat less humid today and Thursday over the northern half of the forecast area, although temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal.

Moisture will begin to return from the east Friday through the weekend and into early next week, with PWAT values increasing back to around 2.0 inches or more and bringing back higher rain chances and rain totals. Under light easterly flow, storms will generally develop over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula during the morning and early afternoon and shift west into the forecast area during the afternoon and early evening hours before dissipating around or shortly after sunset.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours, although some MVFR ceilings will be possible at times during the late morning and early afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move west into the area during the afternoon and early evening, with the highest rain chances over southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. Otherwise, breezy east to northeast will hold throughout the day with gusts of up to around 25 knots expected.

MARINE

Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

High pressure holding north of the waters will keep mainly east flow in place through the rest of the week and the upcoming weekend, with a tightening pressure gradient causing wind speeds to increase to around 20-25 knots over the eastern Gulf. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore waters north of Tarpon Springs today, with Advisory level conditions expected to expand south and east through the rest of the coastal waters by late this afternoon. Conditions will improve Thursday night and Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes, but daily thunderstorms will create locally higher winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

High pressure north of the state will setup breezy east and northeast winds today and Thursday. Drier air moving into the area from the northeast will limit rain chances each day for areas from around Interstate 4 north, although more favorable moisture to the south will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 74 90 74 / 20 0 10 0 FMY 91 75 91 74 / 60 20 40 10 GIF 90 73 90 73 / 30 0 20 0 SRQ 92 74 92 74 / 50 10 20 10 BKV 91 71 90 70 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 91 76 91 76 / 30 0 20 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.