textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Cold Warning and a Freeze Warning are in effect for much of west central and southwest Florida Saturday night through Sunday morning. - A Gale Warning is in effect for all coastal waters from Saturday morning through Sunday morning.

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions and a high risk of strong rip currents at area beaches this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 High pressure has shifted eastward some today, which has led to a less-cool morning and a relatively warmer afternoon across the region. The forecast for the weekend and next week remains very similar to previous forecasts and the overall philosophy is pretty much unchanged. Still looking at cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf which will lead to an area of showers developing and pushing onshore toward daybreak. Light showers are expected off and on throughout the day, especially along the coast from Pinellas southward and also south of I-4. This low will then move off the mid-Atlantic coast and rapidly intensify, leading to a very tight pressure gradient over the local area as strong high pressure builds over the region. Winds will rapidly become breezier during the day on Saturday and a Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area with gusts to around 40 mph or greater in some spots, especially near the coast. These winds will also be ushering in a much colder air mass and so temperatures will not rise much throughout the day, if at all. All of this: light showers, strong winds, and cooler temperatures, will make outdoor activities rather miserable if you are unlucky enough to get caught in all of it at once.

Again poaching some of the previous forecast discussion, below are the hazards associated with this event, starting from the highest likelihood of occurrence:

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop over the weekend and a Gale Warning is in effect for Saturday through Sunday morning. A few gusts to storm force are expected as well. - The arctic air will also usher in the coldest temperatures of the year. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for all west central and southwest Florida with the exception of Pinellas, coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Sarasota, Coastal Charlotte, and Lee counties. The criteria for an Extreme Cold Watch is for the potential of wind chill values of 10 degrees or less for Levy, Citrus, Sumter, and Hernando counties...and wind chill values of 20 degrees or less for Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, DeSoto, Highlands, Charlotte, and Lee counties. A Freeze Warning is also in effect for much of the region Saturday night into Sunday morning and Freeze Warnings will likely be needed for much of the forecast area Sunday night as well. A hard freeze is likely across the Nature Coast Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the lower to mid 20s each night. Temperatures across the interior are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s both nights...with lower to mid 30s near the coast and across southwest Florida. Gusty northwest winds will create wind chills Saturday night in the single digits to teens across the Nature Coast, in the teens across the interior, and generally in the 20s elsewhere. The wind is expected to taper off Sunday night, with wind chills generally about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature.

- Temperatures will run about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see some record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning across the region...some low max temperature records set on Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents are expected to develop Saturday through Sunday. There is also a high probability of high surf.

- The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county 1 to 2 feet above astronomical normal tide levels Saturday and Saturday night. This is a low to moderate probability of occurrence.

- The strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to develop over the eastern Gulf on Saturday and Saturday night. With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal waters...Gulf effect type light showers. The backside or northern extent of the cloud shield could see temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become light mixed snow/rain showers or light snow showers/flurries. Trajectories would indicate that the clouds may advect locally onshore...with the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation from Citrus to Pinellas/Hillsborough counties. This is a low probability event...but not out of the realm of possibility. It will be a race between whether temperatures can drop into the 30s before the drier air wins out and pushes any light shower activity south of the area. It's common in scenarios like this that drizzle or very light rain gets reported as snow...when in fact surface temperatures don't support that possibility.

Once we get past the weekend shenanigans and head into next week, the air mass will slowly modify, though temperatures will generally remain below normals.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 For the rest of today, there are no significant aviation concerns. However, that quickly changes tomorrow as a powerful winter storm system moves through the region. Showers and MVFR conditions will arrive in the morning, followed by increasingly gusty winds through the day. While drier air will eventually scour out moisture and clouds, the timing will matter. There is a nonzero chance that TPA & PIE could see snow flurries tomorrow night between 03Z and 06Z. Regardless, winds will continue to increase through tomorrow night, with gusts potentially as high as 40kts before gradually diminishing on Sunday as cold, dry, VFR weather returns.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 Winds and seas remain benign with no headlines through the rest of today. Starting tonight, winds will quickly increase as a frontal boundary moves through, with gale conditions expected Saturday through Sunday morning, along with some gusts to storm force. Winds will come down a bit on Sunday, but advisory level winds and seas will likely persist and the elevated seas will take even longer to subside.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 Low-level moisture will increase enough for Saturday to keep relative humidity values above critical levels, though a cold front will bring increasing northwest winds that will lead to high dispersions in the afternoon. For Sunday and Monday, much drier air will reside over the area behind the front, but Red Flag conditions are not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 52 58 33 48 / 10 20 10 0 FMY 53 63 33 54 / 10 50 20 0 GIF 50 60 25 48 / 10 20 10 0 SRQ 53 61 37 50 / 20 40 10 0 BKV 43 57 22 47 / 10 10 10 0 SPG 55 60 39 50 / 20 30 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Lee-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.