textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions will develop across the coastal waters over the weekend.

- Near normal temperatures and dry conditions expected the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 732 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 High amplitude U/L pattern will persist for the next several days with a strong U/L trough over the western U.S., strong ridging through the central U.S., and and a relatively deep trough along the eastern seaboard. An U/L disturbance will ride over the ridge Thursday night and Friday and down the backside of the trough over the eastern U.S., inducing a cut-off low over the southeast Gulf/Florida Straits area over the weekend. The system will gradually weaken and lift northeast early next week east of Florida as an U/L ridge briefly builds back over the Florida peninsula in its wake.

At the surface, strong high pressure will build over the northeast U.S. which will extend down over the southeast U.S. and Florida. A stationary frontal boundary will persist across the Florida straits. Over the weekend, the pressure gradient will tighten between the high to the north and the stationary boundary to the south as the U/L energy from the developing cut-off low overrides the frontal boundary across the Florida straits. This will create gusty northeast winds across west central and southwest Florida, with the strongest winds along the coast and over the coastal waters. A chance of showers will develop over the interior and southwest Florida due to showers advecting onshore the east central and southeastern Florida peninsula off the Atlantic in the northeast flow. Most of the activity will dissipate as it pushes inland into a drier more stable airmass over west central Florida.

Early next week, surface high pressure will remain across west central and southwest Florida with continued gusty northeast winds, however the chance of rain will diminish. The gradient will begin to relax by the middle of next week with winds subsiding.

As far as the sensible weather goes, mostly clear skies and dry conditions expected Thursday and Friday across the forecast area. Skies will become partly cloudy across most of the coastal counties with breezy conditions developing over the weekend, with the exception of southwest Florida and the interior where skies will become partly sunny with a chance of mainly afternoon showers. Early next week, skies will become partly cloudy during the day and mostly clear at night across the region. Temperature each day through the period will run near climatic normals with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s north Thursday and Friday nights, with lower to mid 60s central and south. The entire forecast area will have lows in the 60s the remainder of the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Cautionary winds will occur over portions of the waters today and Friday. The gradient will tighten over the weekend with advisory level northeast winds likely across the region, and continuing into early next week. A few gusts to gale force will be possible, with the best chance over the outer waters. The offshore wind flow will also cause tides to run below astronomical levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will drop to near critical levels across the northern nature coast this afternoon, however winds are expected to remain less than 15 MPH. Low level moisture will recover a bit on Friday and keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels across the forecast area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 61 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 83 64 84 67 / 0 0 10 0 GIF 82 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 81 62 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 80 56 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 80 64 80 66 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.