textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions will develop across the coastal waters late today and will continue through the weekend and into early next week.

- Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures and dry conditions expected today. Becoming breezy with a chance of showers interior and southwest Florida over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1258 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 High amplitude U/L pattern will continue for the next several days with a strong U/L trough over the western U.S., strong ridging through the central U.S., and a deep trough along the eastern seaboard. A tandem of U/L disturbances, as seen in W/V imagery, one over north Florida and the other just off the North Carolina coast, will dig into the base of the east coast trough over the next couple of days eventually merging creating an U/L low over the northern Bahamas on Sunday. The system will gradually weaken, open up, and lift northeast by the middle of next week. An U/L ridge will build back over the Florida peninsula in its wake.

At the surface, strong high pressure will build over the northeast U.S. today which will extend down over the southeast U.S. and Florida. A stationary frontal boundary will persist across the Florida straits. The gradient will begin to tighten over western central and southwest Florida today, and further tighten over the weekend due to the strong high to the north and a strengthening stationary boundary to the south due to the U/L energy from the aforementioned disturbances riding over frontal boundary. This will create gusty northeast winds across the forecast area for the weekend and into early next week, with the strongest winds along the coast and over the coastal waters. A chance of showers will develop over the interior and southwest Florida due to showers advecting onshore the east central and southeastern Florida peninsula off the Atlantic in convergent northeast flow north of the frontal boundary. Most of the activity will dissipate as it pushes inland into a drier more stable airmass over west central Florida.

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and dry conditions are expected today across most of the forecast area. Will likely see a period of mostly cloudy skies over southwest Florida due to strato-cu cigs associated with a bit more L/L moisture north of the stationary boundary riding up an over that area. Skies will become partly cloudy across a majority of the coastal counties with breezy conditions developing over the weekend, with the exception of southwest Florida and the interior where skies will become partly sunny/mostly cloudy with a chance of mainly afternoon showers. Early next week, skies will become partly cloudy during the day and mostly clear at night across the region. Temperature each day through the period will run generally around 80 north to the mid 80s south. Overnight lows with vary a bit due to changes in dew points through the period. Lows are expected to be in the upper 50s north Friday night, with lower to mid 60s central and south. The entire forecast area will have lows in the 60s Saturday night and Sunday night due to higher dew points. Then fall back into the upper 50s north to mid 60s south as slightly lower dew points advect back across the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue with mostly sunny skies today over most of the area except SCT LCL BKN 050-060 in SW FL. NE winds become gusty shortly continuing through the afternoon and evening before decoupling overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1258 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 Cautionary northeast winds Friday morning on portions of the waters will likely increase to advisory levels late in the day. The gradient will tighten further over the weekend with advisory level northeast winds continuing, but strengthening with frequent gusts to gale force possible late Saturday through Monday evening for all of the waters except Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...and a Gale Watch may be issued on Friday or Friday night. The offshore wind flow will also cause tides to run below astronomical levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1258 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 Low level moisture will recover a bit today and keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels across the forecast area, generally bottoming out in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Low level moisture will recover even further on Saturday, however winds will be on the increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 61 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 84 65 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 82 62 83 68 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 81 63 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 81 57 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 80 64 81 69 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound- Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.