textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 223 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Be prepared to alter outdoor events if lightning and thunder are seen or heard.

- The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will range from late night and morning near the west coast then shifting inland into the interior by late afternoon and evening each day through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026 No major changes to the forecast philosophy. An upper low continues to spin over the northeast with ridging south of Florida while weak high pressure holds at the surface. Onshore flow will remain across the region through the next couple of days with this pattern, with the best rain chances for the interior and east coast of Florida each afternoon and evening.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, upper troughing will dig across the U.S. east coast, with a frontal boundary moving into Florida. This will lead to higher rain chances across the forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday before high pressure builds into the southeast. This will pull in drier air for the end of the week, with lower rain chances, though with a switch to easterly flow, whatever convection does form will be closer to the west coast each afternoon and evening. We'll also see some lower dew points to end the week, which should make humidity levels slightly more tolerable.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A few showers/storms will be near KLAL this afternoon before shifting eastward, but rain chances remain low enough to leave out of other TAF sites. A similar pattern is forecast for tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026 High pressure will remain over the waters through the next several days, with westerly winds continuing. No headlines are expected, but scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and rough seas, mainly during the overnight and morning hours each day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative humidity values remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 89 80 90 / 10 30 10 20 FMY 79 92 80 92 / 10 10 10 20 GIF 77 91 77 92 / 10 30 20 50 SRQ 80 91 80 91 / 10 20 10 20 BKV 78 90 77 91 / 10 40 20 30 SPG 81 92 81 92 / 10 20 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.