textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall mainly in urban areas with the higher thunderstorm activity each day through much of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region for the next several days. The surface ridge axis remains north of the forecast area which will continue to create easterly boundary layer flow across the Florida peninsula today. This will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties of west central and southwest Florida which will be the focus for convection late in the day. W/V imagery indicates deep tropical moisture persists over the forecast area, with a reinforcing area just off the east coast of Florida which is poised to move west over the peninsula later today. This will enhance the risk for locally heavy rain with storms with the potential for flooding of low lying flood prone areas, along with urban areas.

Slight change on Friday as the boundary layer flow will veer to the south. The main impact will be to change the timing of showers/storms with development along the west coast sea breeze boundary during the late morning/early afternoon. The sea breeze boundary will push inland during the mid/late afternoon hours with an increase in areal coverage of showers/storms over the interior. Deep tropical moisture will remain over the region with the continued risk for locally heavy rain.

Over the weekend, some drier air aloft will try to work its way over the central and southern forecast area which should act to decrease areal coverage of showers/storms in that region. Also, boundary layer flow will become increasingly onshore which will also act to push any shower/thunderstorm activity inland earlier in the day, with highest pops shifting to the interior each day.

Monday will be a transition day with the gradient weakening causing a slower push of the sea breeze boundaries inland. Sufficient deep layer moisture will remain for scattered to numerous mainly afternoon showers and storms with highest pops over the interior and north.

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will build over the forecast area by mid week with boundary layer flow shifting back to the east. Drier air aloft will also advect over the forecast area decreasing areal coverage of afternoon shower/thunderstorm activity decreasing overall pops. This will allow daytime temperatures to climb a few degrees with some areas again approaching the mid 90s. NBM POPs appear to be a category or two too high in the extended range.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 Areas of light rain persist over portions of west central and southwest Florida...which will dissipate over the next hour or two. VFR conditions will prevail with high cloudiness persisting at all terminals the remainder of the night. After sunrise, SCT LCL BKN020-025 will develop and may briefly impact terminals. Showers/thunderstorms will develop during the mid/late afternoon hours and may also impact all terminals with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters for the next several days with relatively light winds and seas. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening and overnight hours through the weekend, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 77 90 78 / 80 40 60 20 FMY 90 77 92 77 / 70 30 60 30 GIF 92 76 93 76 / 80 40 70 30 SRQ 90 76 91 77 / 70 40 60 20 BKV 91 72 92 73 / 80 40 70 30 SPG 88 78 89 79 / 70 40 60 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.