textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast during the morning hours moving eastward during the afternoon/evening.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) VRF conditions, light winds and clearing skies overnight. Light S-SW flow begins SAT with SCT SHRA/TSRA expected VC coastal terminals after 14Z with PROB30s for now but likely tempos for MVFR cigs/vsby and gusty winds for likely timing before clearing aft 20Z.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest through the southeast U.S., across northern Florida and into the central Gulf. This will keep a predominant easterly flow over Florida for one more day. Abundant moisture with PWAT values between 1.8-2.2 inches will support scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and storms once again with the highest coverage over the interior and south of the I-4 corridor. Daytime highs today will top out in the low to mid 90s with heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees.

On Saturday, we are expecting a shift in the wind flow to a more onshore south-southwest flow as the high pressure center shifts southeastward and ridges westward across south Florida and into the central Gulf. This onshore flow combined with continued abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous showers and storms earlier in the day along the eastern Gulf waters and west coast of Florida. These showers and storms will traverse eastward through the day. Similar conditions expected on Sunday with early showers and storms along the west coast traversing eastward through the day. Not a lot of change expected in the weather pattern through the middle of next week.

By Wednesday, high pressure remains over south Florida and a south- southwest onshore shore will prevail, but some slightly drier air with PWAT values around 1.7-2.0 inches will move over the region. This is still abundant moisture for daily showers and storms, but may slightly decrease chances down to around 30-50 percent from Wednesday through the end of next week. Near seasonal temps in the low to mid 90s continue with heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees each afternoon. Overnight lows remain warm and muggy in the mid to upper 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Pleasant boating conditions expected through the weekend and into next week with winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. The only marine impact expected will be some scattered showers and storms, which may produce some gusty erratic winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than 10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 91 80 91 / 10 60 40 50 FMY 78 92 77 93 / 30 50 40 70 GIF 76 94 76 93 / 30 80 30 80 SRQ 79 92 79 92 / 30 60 50 50 BKV 74 94 74 93 / 10 60 30 40 SPG 80 91 80 91 / 20 60 40 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.