textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 315 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Isolated to scattered shower and storm coverage through the week with highest chances away from the immediate coast.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 105+ degrees likely areawide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

With today being the first day of astronomical summer, it's fitting that the upcoming week looks to feature a pretty typical summertime pattern. Westerly flow aloft overspreads the state north of a ridge axis extending across the S Gulf into the W Atlantic, while the surface ridge is slightly north, extending across the S FL peninsula from the Gulf into the Atlantic. Flow setup today continues to favor isolated morning convection over the E Gulf with scattered convection developing away from the immediate coast and over the interior during the afternoon and early evening before diminishing. Warm and humid with highs in the upper 80s coastal to mid 90s interior, and heat indices reaching 105+ degrees.

Ridge axis aloft and at the surface remain over the state through the week with subtle shifts in location and strength influencing shower and storm coverage while tropical PWATs over the area remain in the 1.5-2 inch range. Generally light onshore/westerly flow prevails locally, increasing in the afternoons with the sea breeze, particularly near the coast, keeping highest shower and storm chances focused over areas away from the immediate coast. Lower rain chances on Mon-Tue with highest chances confined to areas south of I-4 in response to slightly stronger ridging aloft over the area, with afternoon highs climbing to near-record values and overnight lows perhaps flirting with record high minimums on Tue-Wed mornings. Rain chances expand northward to include areas north of I-4 on Wednesday, with isolated to scattered coverage through the remainder of the week, highest away from the immediate coast. Highs from the upper 80s/lower 90s coastal to mid/upper 90s inland on Mon-Tue, moderating slightly to mid 90s inland mid to late week. Lows remain balmy, from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s coastal. Daily maximum heat indices approaching 105+ degrees continue through the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Onshore flow will keep convection east and inland of coastal terminals, with best chances at LAL this afternoon. Light flow early increases to around 10 knots during the afternoon before diminishing in the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Mostly benign boating conditions with generally westerly flow around 5 to 10 knots through the period. Primary concern for mariners will be the potential for morning convection over the northern waters and evening convection over the southern waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

High pressure to remain in control through the week with warm and humid conditions expected and minimal fire concerns. Scattered shower and storm coverage over the interior today, followed by slightly drier conditions on Monday and Tuesday, particularly north of I-4, before again increasing mid to late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 79 95 81 / 10 10 10 0 FMY 94 78 96 79 / 10 0 20 10 GIF 94 75 96 76 / 40 10 20 0 SRQ 93 78 94 80 / 0 0 10 0 BKV 94 74 95 76 / 20 10 0 0 SPG 93 80 94 81 / 10 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.