textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 732 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day...be prepared to alter outdoor events if lightning and thunder are seen or heard.

- The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will range from late night and morning near the west coast then shifting inland into the interior by late afternoon and evening each day into early next week.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 732 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms were located over the interior this evening. An outflow is pushing slowly back to the west, but will likely run into increasingly stable marine air due to the onshore boundary layer flow which will inhibit additional convection initiation. Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually dissipate by around midnight.

The onshore flow may allow a few showers to develop over the coastal waters late tonight which may advect locally onshore around daybreak. The onshore flow will promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop over the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon hours, which will push inland and increase in areal coverage through the remainder of the day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 An upper-level trough sits along the U.S. east coast this afternoon, with ridging south of Florida. At the surface, the ridge axis remains south of the area, keeping a west/northwest low-level flow in place. Moisture remains abundant, so each day will see scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf and west coast earlier in the day, followed by higher thunderstorm coverage for the interior and east coast later in the day. This overall setup will continue through the weekend and into next week before switching back to east/southeast flow starting Wednesday, with higher storm coverage over the west coast in the afternoon and evening hours.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 VFR CIGs around 250 will prevail tonight at all terminals. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs will develop vcnty all terminals Saturday morning and early afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 Northwest to west flow will remain in place into early next week with wind speeds 15 knots or less. Deep tropical moisture will persist over the waters during this time leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms at almost anytime, but highest chances will be during the late night and morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels and lower fire weather concern. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 89 79 89 / 20 30 30 30 FMY 78 91 78 93 / 10 20 10 30 GIF 76 90 76 90 / 30 40 20 60 SRQ 79 90 79 90 / 20 20 20 30 BKV 76 89 76 90 / 30 40 40 40 SPG 80 91 80 91 / 20 30 30 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.