textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous fire weather conditions today.

- Hazardous marine conditions over the waters into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

W/NW flow aloft overspreads the local area this morning between upstream C U.S. ridging and W Atlantic troughing. E/NE surface and low level flow continues locally between Srn U.S. ridging and a remnant frontal boundary over far S FL, with the associated gradient responsible for continued breezy to gusty conditions expected across WC/SWFL today into early Wednesday before gradually diminishing. Dry air advection into the peninsula behind the S FL frontal boundary coupled with elevated winds will lead to critical fire conditions locally today as a Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM for all of WC/SWFL. As such, outdoor burning is strongly discouraged as any fire that develops will pose a risk of rapidly spreading. Mostly clear skies likely otherwise with seasonably warm temps with highs in the low/mid 80s. Winds gradually diminish mid to late week while moisture gradually increases, lessening overall fire concerns, however rain chances remain rather limited offering little relief to ongoing drought conditions. PoPs increase slightly over the weekend mainly across the interior, with a slight chance of an afternoon or early evening shower or storm, otherwise the only other notable change will be a late week warming trend, with temps warming from the low/mid 80s mid week into the upper 80s to around 90s this weekend, and upper 80s/low 90s early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Dry VFR through the period with breezy E/NE winds, becoming gusty late morning through afternoon and into the evening before gradually diminishing overnight into Wednesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Hazardous marine conditions continue through early Wednesday as winds remain at advisory levels across the central and southern waters, and cautionary levels across the northern waters. Winds expected to briefly decrease below advisory levels for a period this afternoon before increasing back to advisory levels this evening and tonight. Gradual improvement expected beginning on Wednesday afternoon as winds and seas begin to decrease.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Fire weather concerns remain elevated as conditions continue to be dry and windy, warranting a Red Flag Warning today from late morning through early evening. Winds diminish below 15 mph tonight into early Wednesday, with moisture gradually recovering through the mid to late week period. However, minimum RHs reaching critical thresholds for a few hours remain likely on Wednesday afternoon for areas north of I-4 and west of I-75.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 63 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 85 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 83 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 85 61 84 64 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 85 53 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 85 68 84 68 / 0 0 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto- Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.