textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each day this weekend. Rain coverage will become more widespread Monday through Thursday, with higher rain totals

- Winds over the eastern Gulf waters will remain near 15 knots today and tonight then will subside on Sunday. Winds will increase again late Tuesday through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Currently at the surface, a broad trough is forming over the westerly Gulf, while the sub-tropical ridge is positioned northeast of Florida. Under this pattern, east and southeast winds will hold across the forecast area through the weekend, with deep moisture allowing for scattered to numerous showers and storms each day. Despite the high rain chances, 48 hour QPFs for most of the area are generally less than half an inch, with the exception of parts of the Nature Coast where slightly higher rain totals will be possible.

Early next week, a broad upper level trough will swing through eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS, pulling a cold front into the Florida Peninsula on Monday that will stall out across central Florida by midweek. While this front will bring in somewhat cooler air to the Nature Coast beginning Monday, and then as far south as Tampa Bay and the Interstate 4 corridor by Wednesday, the bigger impact will come from increased storm chances and rain totals. With moisture pooling along and south of the front, precipitable water values are forecast to increase to as much as 2.5 inches, resulting in numerous to widespread showers and storms and heavy rainfall potentially hitting some spots multiple days in a row resulting in areas of flooding.

By Friday, the frontal boundary will be starting to weaken and retreat back north, allowing the atmospheric moisture to moderate. While numerous storms are still forecast to develop in the afternoon, QPFs are a bit more modest across the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Patchy MVFR or IFR ceilings will be possible at times through the early morning hours, lifting out by around 12z. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will hold through the morning, then scattered to numerous storms will develop across the area in the afternoon, mainly after 19z. Any storms that disrupt area terminals are expected to clear out again by around 01-02z this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Surface high pressure is holding northeast of Florida as a weak surface trough develops in the western Gulf. This will keep east to southeast winds in place through the weekend, at times approaching Small Craft Exercise Caution levels. Winds will turn to southerly and southwesterly early next week as a front slowly pushes south into the waters. Winds behind the front will turn to northeasterly and easterly late Tuesday into Wednesday, increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels mainly over the northeastern Gulf waters. Building moisture along and ahead of the front will also increase storm coverage during the first half of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A weak surface trough developing in the western Gulf will keep deep moisture in place over the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing each day. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 76 89 76 / 60 50 40 40 FMY 90 76 91 76 / 60 40 60 30 GIF 89 75 92 74 / 60 30 50 40 SRQ 89 75 90 75 / 50 40 40 30 BKV 89 73 91 73 / 70 60 50 40 SPG 87 77 88 77 / 60 50 40 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.