textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Thunderstorm coverage will increase today, but will remain limited across the Nature Coast. A few stronger storms may produce strong gusty winds and hail.

- Higher rain chances are forecast across the area Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

An upper level low continues to spin over the eastern Gulf through the day. This is apparent on both water vapor and IR satellite imagery showing the center of this low extending from the eastern Gulf to the central part of the state. On the surface, high pressure north of the state will keep a predominant northeast through southeast wind flow over the region through the weekend. The 12Z morning sounding is showing a PWAT of 1.90 inches and some slightly cool mid-level temperatures with the 500 mb temps around -9 degrees. These cooler temps may enhance convective instability with a small risk of damaging wind gusts and possible hail with stronger storms this afternoon/evening. The upper low shifts slightly westward by Sunday morning further into the eastern Gulf. PWAT remains about the same around 1.7 - 2.0 inches on Sunday, which will support scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms once again.

The upper low will be slow to lift out of the area to the northeast on Tuesday. Abundant moisture with PWAT between 1.7 - 2.0 inches will remain over the area for the first half of next week with continued scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms expected each day. Strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard will ridge southwest over Florida for the latter part of next week producing a predominant northeast wind flow over the region. Some slightly drier air with PWAT values around 1.3 - 1.6 inches will advect into the region as well, with lower shower and storm coverage for next Thursday through Saturday.

Near seasonal temperatures expected topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop once this afternoon/evening with gusty winds and MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs impacting terminals for a few hours, with the best chance at PGD/FMY/RSW. Will cover this with VCTS at all sites through at least 00Z, and TEMPO TSRA between 18-23Z. Otherwise, outside of showers and storms, VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots will prevail.

MARINE

Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the weekend and into early next week producing northeast through southeast winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Moisture will increase through the next few days, bringing higher rain chances. East-northeast winds will continue, with showers and storms moving westward through the day. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, with no Red Flag concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 88 75 88 / 10 50 30 80 FMY 74 89 74 89 / 30 50 50 80 GIF 73 90 73 90 / 10 50 20 80 SRQ 74 89 74 88 / 40 50 40 80 BKV 71 91 71 90 / 10 40 20 80 SPG 76 88 76 87 / 20 50 40 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.