textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms continue. A few storms may produce strong winds of 50+ mph and small hail. - A summertime pattern will continue through mid week. Potential for some drier air by late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Stagnant pattern will hold as an U/L low will remain quasi- stationary over west central Florida for one more day along with an associated pocket of cold air aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across west central and southwest Florida during the afternoon hours. The cold air aloft will enhance convective instability and the risk for damaging wind gusts and possibly small hail with stronger storms. PCPW values will remain around 2 inches. Expected slow storm movement will create the risk for localized flooding of urban and poor drainage areas.

An U/L disturbance and associated S/W trough will dig across the Ohio River Valley Monday night through Wednesday, and will lift the U/L low over the peninsula Monday night and will finally be absorbed into the northern stream flow as the U/L trough approaches the eastern seaboard on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers/storms are expected across west central and southwest Florida each day as deep layer moisture with PCPW values around 2 inches will hold over the forecast area.

An U/L ridge will build over the Lower Mississippi Valley and will extend briefly across the Florida peninsula mid week. However, a retrograding pattern will develop with the U/L ridge slowly pushing west, and a rex block will initially form over the northeast and mid Atlantic coast. As the overall pattern begins to amplify, a deep cut-off U/L low will develop along the eastern seaboard. This will induce U/L troughing over Florida and will likely push a frontal boundary south and down the Florida peninsula late in the week with drier air surface and aloft advecting across the region. This would significantly reduce pops, and dew points should drop below 70 in many areas for the first time in several months.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Partly cloudy skies with FEW-SCT250 through the morning hours at all terminals. SCT LCL BKN 030-040 will develop Monday afternoon across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms also developing with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs, which may impact terminals for a few hours mainly during the mid/late afternoon hours. Best chance will be at PGD/FMY/RSW.

MARINE

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through mid week with winds and seas below cautionary levels. A frontal boundary will push across the waters late in the week with increasing northeast winds in the wake of the front with a period of cautionary to possibly advisory level winds. The gradient will weaken over the weekend with winds and seas subsiding. The main hazard through mid week will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly from the evening to the early morning hours, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 75 89 76 / 60 30 60 40 FMY 89 75 89 75 / 60 40 80 40 GIF 90 73 91 74 / 60 20 60 30 SRQ 90 74 89 75 / 50 30 60 40 BKV 91 71 91 72 / 50 30 50 30 SPG 88 76 88 77 / 60 30 60 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.