textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast during the morning hours and will push inland during the afternoon and evening for the next few days.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Some ambitious updrafts are supporting a few storms near the bay, however, most of the activity remains over the interior and pushing east. This trend should continue over the next few hours until convection dissipates. Overnight lows remain warm from the mid 70s inland to near 80 degrees along the coast. The current flow regime will support early morning showers over the Gulf waters that will approach coast areas by late morning. Plenty of moisture, daytime heating and the sea breeze will provide the lift to support convection to push inland and become widespread. A carbon copy from today's highs is anticipated on Tuesday.

No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A few storms remain near some of the terminals, but this activity should dissipate over the next hour or two. VFR conditions prevail overnight and into the early morning hours. Then, chances of showers and storms increase near coastal TAF sites. A PROB30 and TEMPOs were added to the forecast. Convection should become widespread inland during the afternoon hours. Intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions possible if storms develop.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 92 81 94 / 20 30 10 20 FMY 77 93 78 95 / 20 50 20 30 GIF 75 94 76 95 / 30 50 30 40 SRQ 79 93 79 94 / 20 30 10 20 BKV 75 94 75 95 / 20 30 10 20 SPG 81 92 81 94 / 20 30 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.