textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A weakness aloft remains over the local area this morning, extending from a departing E U.S. trough over the W Atlantic. At the surface, a frontal boundary is analyzed over the central peninsula south of high pressure ridging down the E Seaboard. The location of the boundary has essentially set up varying regimes for W FL... with E/NE flow to its north over Nature Coast and WCFL locations, and W/SW flow to its south over SWFL locations. A moisture convergence axis along and just north of the boundary has allowed an area of low clouds to develop early this morning as a result, generally along the I-4 corridor across parts of Polk and Hillsborough counties, as a shallow layer of Atlantic moisture advecting within the E/NE flow pools north of the boundary. Showers and a few embedded storms have been developing and advecting locally onshore across SWFL early this morning within the W/SW flow south of the boundary. SWFL convection will likely diminish a bit through the morning before eventually transitioning inland this afternoon and expanding in areal coverage in response to daytime heating, while additional development occurs northward across WCFL where activity should gradually work from the interior toward the W FL coast through the afternoon into evening hours. Highs remain near climatic normals across the area, from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

For Wednesday through the remainder of the period, flow is expected to remain generally between easterly to southerly as high pressure at the surface and aloft become established north and east of the area, with mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms each day as activity will favor the W FL peninsula. Highs are expected to continue to run near normal, from the upper 80s coastal to lower 90s away from the coast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Coastal convection has developed overnight south of Tampa Bay from around SRQ southward and will continue to advect locally onshore bringing MVFR/LCL IFR conditions for SRQ and SWFL terminals remainder of tonight into Tue morning. A break in activity is then expected mid morning into early afternoon before onshore flow and sea breeze development favor VCTS mid afternoon into early evening before diminishing. Tampa Bay area terminals and LAL currently look to remain north of the aforementioned ongoing coastal convection, however low-level moisture advecting W/SW across the north/central peninsula from the Atlantic will favor a window of potential MVFR/LCL IFR cigs from around 09-15Z. Current obs don't indicate any upstream cig development yet, and given limited confidence in these materializing (generally up to 30-40% probabilities via various hi-res guidance), opted against explicit sub-VFR mention and indicated SCT010 in current cycle to highlight potential. Afternoon sea breeze development should also favor VCTS through early evening for northern terminals as well.

MARINE

Issued at 420 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A weak boundary situated over the central waters south of high pressure building from the northeast will keep relatively light westerly winds in place across the southern offshore waters today, with E/NE winds across the remaining waters elsewhere. The main hazard will continue to be scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated locally gusty winds and higher seas. Generally easterly through southerly flow likely from mid week into the weekend, favoring the timing of highest likelihood for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. No headlines are anticipated at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 420 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. A weak boundary across the central peninsula will favor continued light westerly flow today for southern areas, and east to northeast flow across north and central areas along and north of the boundary. Flow becomes generally easterly through southerly for the remainder of the week, favoring afternoon and evening showers and storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 91 77 / 60 30 60 30 FMY 92 77 92 77 / 50 30 70 30 GIF 91 75 92 75 / 60 30 70 20 SRQ 91 76 92 76 / 50 20 60 20 BKV 90 73 92 73 / 70 30 70 20 SPG 89 78 90 78 / 50 30 50 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.