textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue into mid week.

- Breezy areawide with a slight chance of showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 U/L split flow pattern continues along the west coast of the U.S. with a mean overall U/L trough across the western U.S. and weak downstream ridging over the Gulf and southeast U.S. An U/L was located just north of the Bahamas, and will lift slowly north today and will be absorbed into the main U/L flow over the western Atlantic Thursday and Friday. A strong northern stream disturbance will dig over the Pacific northwest over the next several days causing the west coast trough to amplify...which will induce strong downstream ridging over the Gulf and Florida in the wake of the exiting U/L low. The building heights over the forecast area combined with the increasing large scale subsidence will allow temperatures across west central and southwest Florida to climb several degrees above climatic normals Thursday through Saturday.

A southern stream disturbance will exit the base of the west coast trough late in the week and will push across the Mississippi River valley Saturday/Saturday night, moving slowly over the mid Atlantic coast and Florida Sunday and Monday. An associated frontal boundary will push across the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night with showers and a few thunderstorms likely. This will also decrease heights over the state with daytime temperatures dropping back several degrees due to the increasing cloudiness/showers, but will still run above climatic normals.

At the surface, a remnant frontal boundary persists across the Bahamas and portions of the Florida straits with strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard. The tight pressure gradient continues between these two systems which is producing gusty northeast winds across west central and southwest Florida along with the adjacent coastal waters. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon due to the convergent northeast flow off the Atlantic which will continue to advect scattered showers onshore the east central/southeast Florida coast which will push inland. Any precipitation will be light.

As the U/L low currently north of the Bahamas moves away from the region over the next couple of days, the gradient will relax a bit Thursday and Friday with winds over land subsiding, but will still remain elevated over the coastal waters. Over the weekend, the surface high will begin to exit the area as the U/L trough moves over the state and the associated frontal boundary moves across the forecast area. Surface high pressure will build back over the region early next week in the wake of the cold front with clearing skies and temperatures continuing to run a few degrees above climatic normals.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 VFR CIGs at all terminals the remainder of the night, with LCL MVFR CIGs 020-025 over southwest Florida. Gusty northeast winds will continue with a chance of a light afternoon shower vcnty all terminals, however VFR CIGs are expected on Wednesday 040-050 with VSBYs 3-5 miles associated with the light showers.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Advisory level winds expected to persist across the waters through Wednesday night, and possibly continue into Thursday. Winds will begin to weaken a bit late Thursday and Thursday night, but are expected to remain elevated through the end of the week. The gradient will weaken further over the weekend and into next week dropping below cautionary levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 84 73 86 72 / 10 10 20 0 FMY 88 73 88 73 / 50 10 30 10 GIF 85 72 88 72 / 40 30 30 10 SRQ 85 72 87 72 / 20 10 20 0 BKV 84 71 87 69 / 10 20 30 0 SPG 82 73 85 73 / 10 10 20 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.