textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions will continue for the next several days with additional Heat Advisory conditions possible.

- Below normal rain chances for most of the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 805 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Made a few minor tweaks to the PoP/Wx grids to better reflect lingering convection currently over parts of Levy County and the Nature Coast, otherwise no changes necessary for the evening update as existing forecast reasoning remains unchanged.

SHORT TERM TDY-SAT)

Issued at 121 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to stream from the east across the Peninsula. This morning's sounding showed plenty of moisture and instability, which aligns with the current conditions. The surface high pressure is extending over central portions of the state with easterly flow prevailing south of I-4, while onshore westerly winds remain to the north. Drier air in the mid-levels could aid stronger winds to be pushed down to the surface where thunderstorms develop. Most of the convection should should push inland later in the afternoon with a non-zero chance of an outflow boundary supporting additional activity near the coast later in the evening. On the other hand, the current Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm.

On Saturday, not much is expected to change. Temperatures will remain hot. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of pockets of much drier air to advect from the south. The timing will determine what areas will get rain. Ahead of it, there should still be plenty of moisture to support at least some scattered showers and storms. Highest chances will be across interior locations and SWFL before this dry air moves in. In terms of hazards, given the drier air potentially mixing down, there is not high enough confidence at this time that there will be widespread advisory level heat, even though heat indices will still range from 105-107 degrees. Residents and visitor should still take precautionary measures if planning to be outdoors.

LONG TERM (SUN-THU)

Issued at 121 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

By early next week, upper level ridge continues to build as the layer of dry air aloft remain over the area keeping. This will keep low POPs and above normal temperatures at least through Monday. Drier air aloft will remain over central and southern areas. Then, the surface ridge axis will gradually move south of the CWA supporting onshore flow. This will support shower/thunderstorm activity near coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon, then pushing inland with a slight increase in areal coverage over the interior during the remainder of the day towards the end of the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR tonight through Saturday morning. Guidance hints at low probs for early afternoon convection for Tampa Bay area terminals with bay/sea breeze development/interaction, however don't anticipate significant impacts as of this cycle, therefore withheld PROB30 until mid-late afternoon through early evening. Less uncertain timing for SWFL terminals convective impacts as guidance favors mid-late afternoon through early evening. Winds diminish to lgt/vrb overnight then briefly increase out of the E-SE late morning before shifting onshore in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Area of high pressure will continue to dominate over the Gulf waters for the next several days. This will keep mostly benign conditions through the weekend and into next week. Light winds and seas prevailing. Rain chances will remain low for the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

High pressure builds across fire districts supporting very warm conditions through the period. Minimum humidity levels remain well above any critical values. This along with light winds will keep any fire weather concerns out of the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 94 79 94 / 20 20 10 10 FMY 77 95 78 96 / 20 50 20 0 GIF 76 96 77 97 / 30 30 20 20 SRQ 76 95 77 94 / 10 20 20 10 BKV 74 95 75 95 / 20 20 10 10 SPG 79 94 80 94 / 10 20 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.