textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 720 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Above normal temps with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees in the afternoons continue through the week. - Increasing shower and storm chances expected through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of shower and thunderstorm activity. Best chances are around midday for Tampa Bay area sites and a few hours later for southwest Florida sites and KLAL. Generally, most activity will slowly shift inland through the day. A similar pattern is expected for tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Rather unstable atmosphere currently over the region combined with remnant outflow boundaries are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of Sarasota. Activity will persist for a few more hours before finally dissipating later tonight with skies becoming partly cloudy.

Weak surface high pressure will hold over the region for the next several days. Boundary layer flow will become increasingly from the west today and over the weekend. This will shift highest pops to the interior. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop over the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon hours, and will increase in areal coverage as they push inland during the remainder of the day. PCPW values will remain AOA 2 inches which will promote locally heavy rain with the stronger storms.

Early next week, a pocket of drier air aloft will move over the forecast area which will lower pops, with the best chance of rain over the interior due to the persistent west boundary layer flow.

By mid week, a frontal boundary will sink south over north Florida which will increase the chance of rain across the nature coast. Otherwise, west boundary layer flow will continue with the best chance of rain over the interior.

Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal each day. As west boundary layer flow develops off the warm Gulf waters, overnight temperatures and dew points will be held up with lows near the coast likely in the upper 70s to around 80 creating very muggy warm conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 1216 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Weak gradient will hold over the waters through the forecast period with relatively light winds and seas. Main hazard will be isolated to scattered mainly nightly thunderstorms with locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 79 91 79 / 20 10 20 10 FMY 91 76 92 77 / 60 20 50 20 GIF 92 75 94 76 / 70 40 50 30 SRQ 90 78 91 78 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 92 75 93 76 / 30 10 20 10 SPG 90 79 91 79 / 20 10 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.