textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast during the morning hours and then push inland and become scattered during the afternoon and evening Wednesday.

- Drier air will move into the area late Wednesday into early Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 755 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms continue over the interior this evening, but these should be winding down soon with fair dry weather overnight. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along the Nature Coast south through Tampa Bay Wednesday morning, with more isolated to scattered convection over inland areas Wednesday afternoon. Then some drier air will move into the region limiting convection Thursday. Current forecast looks on track with no changes needed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 755 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

An isolated shower or thunderstorm will remain possible around the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY and RSW this evening, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail overnight into early Wednesday morning. Some MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in a few showers/thunderstorms around Tampa Bay late morning into early afternoon, then possible in scattered mid- afternoon into early evening convection at LAL, PGD, FMY, and RSW. Light and variable winds overnight into Wednesday morning will become southwest to west late morning into early afternoon Wednesday with gusty and erratic winds possible near showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Over the next few days, we can expect to see a deviance in the pattern that we have been in over the last week or so as dust from the Saharan Desert moves its way into Florida.

Today looks similar to yesterday, as the southwesterly flow produced early west coast storms that have moved and developed further inland as the afternoon continues. Heat index values have also reached into the triple digits.

After today is when the Saharan dust will move into our area, reaching west central Florida in the evening hours on Wednesday. This will reduce storm and shower chances greatly, though isolated showers may still be possible. With these reduced chances brings elevated temperatures, with heat index values potentially reaching up to 110 on Thursday.

Over the weekend, a front will be pushing through that will limit the northward advancement of the dust, allowing for some showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern region of Florida. After this trough moves through, conditions will remain warm and dry as the dust continues to linger in our area.

MARINE

Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Marine conditions remain pleasant outside of any shower or storm activity. Winds remain below 10 kts and seas less than 2 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of low level moisture remains in the area. Saharan dust will drift over south Florida beginning tomorrow before drifting further north as the weekend approaches. This will keep rain chances low and conditions hot.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 93 81 95 / 10 20 10 10 FMY 78 96 78 97 / 20 20 10 20 GIF 76 95 77 97 / 30 30 20 10 SRQ 79 94 79 94 / 10 20 10 10 BKV 75 95 75 96 / 10 20 10 10 SPG 81 94 81 95 / 10 20 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.