textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainy conditions will continue through today.

- Gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue through Thursday night.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 737 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions are possible at terminals as showers and low clouds move across this morning. Some improvement is anticipated, however, additional rain chances this afternoon will bring back lower cigs and vis. Gusty easterly winds prevail through most of the period with a gradual decrease through the evening hours. Ample cloud coverage remains in place with VFR conditions returning during this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026 A tight pressure gradient persists across the Florida peninsula due to the combination of an area of strong surface high pressure over the mid Atlantic and a weak trough of low pressure across the Florida Straits. Convergent east to northeast boundary layer flow off the Atlantic is generating numerous showers moving onshore the east coast of Florida...with a majority of the activity dissipating as it pushes inland. However, scattered light showers continue to push across the interior peninsula and west central Florida. This pattern will persist through the day today under mostly cloudy skies.

The area of high pressure will begin to sink south over the southeast U.S. and Florida Thursday night and Friday. This should cause the gradient to weaken a bit over the forecast area and also advect some drier air over the region decreasing cloud cover and the risk of showers. A warming trend will also develop which will continue into the weekend as high pressure holds over the region with generally partly cloudy days and mostly clear nights.

Early next week, the center of the high pressure system will shift east of Florida, however the ridge axis will remain across north Florida with continued easterly boundary layer flow and warm dry conditions each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 64 85 64 / 30 0 0 0 FMY 82 66 85 65 / 40 10 10 0 GIF 78 63 83 62 / 50 10 10 0 SRQ 82 64 84 63 / 30 0 10 0 BKV 80 58 84 56 / 30 0 0 0 SPG 82 69 85 67 / 30 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.