textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Above normal temps with limited shower and storm chances early this week with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees in the afternoons. - Increasing shower and storm chances gradually spread northward across the area, particularly from around mid week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend over the Florida peninsula today and Wednesday with easterly boundary layer flow across the region. This will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties of west central and southwest Florida each day. Deep layer moisture will gradually recover today and Wednesday. Pops will remain low again today with only scattered afternoon storms over southwest Florida, but will increase from south to north on Wednesday with scattered to numerous mid/late day showers and thunderstorms with highest pops over the coastal counties.

Transition day on Thursday as the easterly gradient begins to weaken with the east/west coast sea breeze boundaries colliding over the interior during the late afternoon/early evening hours...shifting highest pops to over the interior.

On Friday and over the weekend, boundary layer flow will become light westerly with highest pops again over the interior. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop over the coastal waters during the late night early morning hours and move locally onshore each night over the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normals each day through the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the night with BKN250 at all terminals. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will develop Tuesday afternoon vcnty all terminals with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period. Main hazard will be showers/storms over land this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon that push west locally offshore before gradually weakening/dissipating. As the flow shifts to the west, main isolated showers/thunderstorms will develop during the overnight and early morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 78 92 78 / 0 10 40 20 FMY 94 77 94 76 / 30 30 60 40 GIF 92 75 93 74 / 10 10 60 20 SRQ 93 77 92 76 / 10 10 40 30 BKV 93 74 94 73 / 10 10 50 10 SPG 93 78 93 78 / 0 10 30 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.