textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 800 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
- Heat Advisory for the rest of today for most of the area for heat index values up to around 110 degrees. Daily heat index values of 105+ degrees likely to continue through the weekend areawide.
- Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) of severe storms with damaging wind gust threat today from the Nature Coast to interior central and southern locations.
- Increased afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Even though most of the areas near the coast didn't see much activity, areas over the interior had plenty. A few strong storms and one that produced damaging winds developed across Polk and Highlands Co. this afternoon and early evening. Some of these were slow movers and dropped anywhere from 3 to 5 inches based on radar estimates and rain reports. Most of the convection has dissipated over these areas. however, shortwave moving across north FL will continue to support showers and some storms over the Nature Coast during the next few hours. CAM models bring showers down to just north of Tampa Bay, but given the current flow regime there is potential for at least a few showers to develop near the coast during the morning hours. Overnight lows remain in the mid to upper 70s to low 80s.
No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
VFR conditions continue over the next several hours with west to southwesterly winds prevailing. Then, the combination of a disturbance to our north and the current wind pattern could support showers to develop during the morning hours potentially affecting TPA/PIE. DUring the early afternoon chances increase for terminals across SWFL. Most of the storm coverage is expected over the interior near LAL and east. Temporary MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible if storms develop.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 92 80 92 / 10 30 10 20 FMY 79 94 78 94 / 10 30 10 30 GIF 77 94 75 94 / 20 60 30 50 SRQ 79 92 78 92 / 10 20 10 10 BKV 77 92 75 93 / 30 60 30 20 SPG 81 92 80 92 / 10 20 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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