textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Very wet pattern on tap with numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms for the next several days. Locally heavy rain and minor flooding possible.

- Increasing winds over the northeast will persist through the remainder of the week will create hazardous boating conditions.

- Dangerous rip currents may develop along area beaches late Thursday night and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 A frontal boundary over north Florida will sink slowly south today and will become stationary across the central Florida peninsula tonight and Thursday. W/V imagery continues to show a deep plume of tropical moisture across the Gulf and Florida with PCPW values in excess of 2.25 inches. Areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms will occur over the eastern Gulf for the next couple of days focused along the frontal boundary, which will advect onshore. The majority of the thunderstorm activity over the Gulf will likely dissipate as it pushes inland, as the main low level instability will be due to the warmer Gulf waters. Temperatures across west central Florida will be held to around 80 to the lower 80s due to extensive cloud cover and periods of rain, which will be a stabilizing effect. Locally heavy rain and minor flooding of urban and low lying areas will be possible. Highest rainfall totals will likely be near the coast.

Quite a bit of uncertainty with the sensible weather forecast starting Friday as T.D. 9, currently over the southwest Gulf, is expected to lift north toward the north central Gulf coast. This will lift the frontal boundary across the central Florida peninsula back to the north with broad southeast flow developing across the forecast area. Numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop across west central and southwest Florida on Friday, and will likely occur again on Saturday as the flow becomes southerly. Will likely see increasing swells across the coastal waters and a high risk of rip currents develop along area beaches late Thursday night and Friday depending on the overall strength/track of T.D. 9.

Surface high pressure with drier air surface and aloft is expected to advect across the region early next week which will significantly decrease the chance of rain with dew points dropping back into the 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 VFR CIGs expected the remainder of tonight and Wednesday at all terminals. Periods of rain with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs will also occur at all terminals for the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms will LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs will also be possible.

MARINE

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 A frontal boundary will sink slowly south over the northeast Gulf today and will stall across the central waters tonight. Numerous to widespread showers/thunderstorms will occur through Thursday. The gradient will continue to tighten with increasing northeast winds, and periods of hazardous conditions for small craft will occur through the remainder of the week...with SCA conditions likely late in the week. Large swells will be possible late Thursday night and Friday...with winds and seas gradually subsiding over the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as deep tropical moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 74 81 74 / 100 70 80 60 FMY 87 75 87 75 / 80 70 80 50 GIF 84 73 84 73 / 100 70 80 60 SRQ 84 74 84 73 / 90 80 90 60 BKV 81 70 82 70 / 90 60 70 60 SPG 82 74 82 74 / 90 80 80 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.