textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Currently at the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic offshore of the Carolinas is ridging into the southeastern US and northern Gulf Coast, while a developing area of low pressure over the Midwest is dragging a cold front through the Southern Plains. The surface ridge is setting up east and southeast flow over the forecast area, which will give way to onshore flow with the afternoon sea breeze while keeping warm and stable conditions in place today. Temperatures will continue to run near record warm levels this weekend with minimal rain chances today. Moisture will build on Sunday ahead of the aforementioned front approaching from the northwest, allowing for some scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms. The front will move through the forecast area Monday and Monday night then lose momentum over southern Florida, keeping deep moisture in place through the middle of the week and resulting in elevated rain chances continuing through Thursday. The front will also knock down high temperatures into the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with morning lows in the mid 50s to upper 60s.

Forecast uncertainty will increase during the second half of the week as a surface inverted trough develops Wednesday night or Thursday in the area of southern Florida. While some ensemble members keep this feature lingering over the Florida Peninsula through the end of the week, which would keep rain chances elevated, most solutions push it away to the northeast, resulting in low rain chances to end the week. For now, the official forecast will keep rain chances low, with temperatures building back up to near normal by the end of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected today, although a few patches of low stratus cannot be completely ruled out early this morning. East winds could give way to a limited onshore sea breeze at terminals along the coast this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge into the northeastern Gulf through the weekend, with east and southeast flow remaining less than 15 knots and turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze. A cold front will move southeast into the waters by early next week, bringing winds up to Small Craft Exercise Caution levels by Monday night and to around Advisory levels Tuesday through the rest of the week as the front is reinforced by high pressure from the north. The system will also bring increased chances of thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday, causing locally higher winds and seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

No humidity concerns this weekend. High dispersion indices are expected this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 68 87 68 / 0 0 30 20 FMY 89 68 88 67 / 10 0 50 30 GIF 88 67 89 67 / 0 0 60 30 SRQ 88 67 86 67 / 0 0 30 20 BKV 89 61 88 61 / 0 0 30 20 SPG 88 71 87 71 / 0 0 30 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.