textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather with rain-free conditions and lower humidity expected through midweek.

- Moisture increases late in the week leading to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 An U/L cut-off low over the desert southwest is inducing downstream ridging over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Florida. Surface high pressure over the southeast U.S. and Florida will hold over the region today and Wednesday with clear to partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s to around 90 each day.

The cut-off low will open up and lift northeast late in the week and will be absorbed into the northern stream flow, with a relatively strong progressive U/L trough moving across the mid west and Ohio River valley. The U/L ridge will briefly exit east of Florida, but will build back over the state early next week. A cold front will push across the southeast U.S. late in the week and will sink south and stall across the central Florida peninsula over the weekend as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Gradient will tighten with breezy northeast winds developing. Deep layer moisture will advect back over the Florida peninsula ahead of the front with PCPW values climbing to around or just above 2 inches.

Quite a bit of uncertainty in the extended portion of the forecast as the pooled deep layer moisture along the frontal boundary combined with convergent east to northeast flow along the front, and significant deep layer moisture across the region could create an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms beginning late Friday/Friday night and continuing through the weekend and possibly into Monday...with the best chance of rain central and south along and just south of the frontal boundary which will be the location of the best available deep layer moisture and instability. This scenario also depends on how far south the drier air in the wake of the front will be able to push down the Florida peninsula, which will likely set up a rather sharp north/south pop gradient somewhere across the northern or central forecast area.

Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normal through the remainder of the week. As the clouds and rainy conditions develop over the weekend, daytime high temperatures will likely be held to slightly below climatic normals...however, overnight lows should be near to slightly above climatic normals due to dew points in the upper 60s to around 70.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours under predominately clear skies, with patchy FEW040 this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through mid week with winds below cautionary levels. A cold front will move across the northern waters Friday night and stall across the central waters over the weekend. The gradient will tighten with advisory level winds possible

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected through the week as sufficient moisture will be in place to keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 71 87 72 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 72 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 89 70 89 71 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 88 71 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 88 65 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 87 73 87 74 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.