textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain-free conditions with warming temperatures expected through mid week.
- Late night and early morning fog potential gradually increases through mid week.
- Cold front approaches mid to late week with slight rain chances, followed by higher rain chances with weekend frontal system.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 131 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
Quiet, pleasant conditions expected through the next few days. High pressure dominates keeping warm, dry conditions at least through mid week. A weak cold front moves south over the state Wednesday into Thursday bringing a very slight chance of showers, mainly to the nature coast. Another cold front moves through later this weekend with a better chance of showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms. Overall, high temperatures will continue to be in the upper 70s low 80s and after another cool start tomorrow in the upper 30s to upper 40s, lows will mostly run in the 50s through the week. The main concern will be late night/early morning patchy, dense fog the next few mornings.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
VFR conditions prevail. WSW winds will become light and variable overnight. There is a potential for below VFR conditions late night/ early as fog develops. However, confidence was too low to include in TAFs at this time.
MARINE
Issued at 131 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
Quiet, pleasant marine conditions persist over the next few days as high pressure dominates the pattern. A change in the pattern arrives over the weekend as a cold front moves through increasing rain chances. Winds will also increase to advisory levels Sunday as the cold front moves through.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 131 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
Warm, dry conditions prevail through the week with some below critical RH values. However, wind speeds will remain minimal for the next few days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 50 75 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 51 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 49 79 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 48 73 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 38 77 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 55 73 58 72 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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