textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 845 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Thunderstorm coverage and rain totals will increase today and Tuesday, with rainy conditions continuing through the rest of the week.

- Marine winds over the northeastern Gulf will increase late Tuesday through the rest of the week, creating hazardous boating conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 845 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Little change in forecast reasoning from previous package with no changes planned for the evening update. Evening satellite and radar imagery shows extensive cloud cover across the northern and central peninsula in association with a cold front currently draped across the northern Gulf/FL peninsula, accompanied by showers and embedded storms across the Nature Coast. Additional cloudiness is focused over the S interior in association with ongoing early evening storms, with scattered mid/upper cloudiness across the remainder of areas south of I-4. While overall activity should wane overnight into Tuesday morning, as the front continues to drift south across the peninsula showers and storms will redevelop mid to late morning, initially across coastal locations before spreading/developing further inland into the afternoon. PWATs remain anomalously high across the area, supportive of numerous to widespread showers and scattered storms across most of the area, with highest PoPs/chances north and central. WPC continues the Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday in the latest ERO update, with ponding of water and minor flooding possible in low lying and poor drainage areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Cold front is currently draped over the Florida Georgia border. This front will slowly drift south over Central Florida by tomorrow afternoon. This front will be stuck in the state over the rest of the week. This will keep overcast skies and humid conditions across the CWA. We will see high chances of rain through the week but this will not be like our typical summer time convection. The thicker cloud cover will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80's. This means temperatures will be around the same as water temps resulting in no real seabreeze setting up. Instead it will be more of an overrunning effect with on and off light to moderate showers through the day (and night). Some isolated storms can't be ruled out but this should be mainly a rain event. The biggest impacts will be felt on Wednesday and Thursday. Total rainfall through the rest of the week will be between 2-4 inches.

This front will finally lift north by the weekend. This will result in us returning to a more summertime weather pattern.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A frontal boundary drifting south across the peninsula will lead to deteriorating conditions through the cycle, mainly VFR through tonight followed by developing showers and storms Tuesday morning through afternoon and evening with MVFR/LCL IFR conditions. Additionally, guidance hints that CIGs could become an issue with MVFR CIGs potentially developing late during the overnight period tonight through Tuesday morning/early afternoon mainly for northern terminals TPA/PIE and perhaps LAL/SRQ. Included a SCT015 group for those terminals to highlight greatest potential time, however adjustments may be necessary if trends dictate otherwise.

MARINE

Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A front will stall over Central Florida tonight. This will bring cloudy skies and widespread showers for most of the week. Winds will remain out of an easterly direction around 5 to 10 knots. The only exception will be our off shore northern waters where winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Deeper layer moisture in across the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 84 74 82 / 40 70 70 90 FMY 76 88 75 86 / 30 50 40 80 GIF 75 87 73 85 / 50 80 50 80 SRQ 75 86 74 84 / 30 70 70 90 BKV 71 83 70 83 / 50 80 70 90 SPG 77 85 75 83 / 30 80 70 90

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.