textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for heavy rain into the weekend with localized flooding possible.

- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches into the weekend.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with dangerous lightning into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A frontal boundary has stalled near the Florida/Georgia border and is the separation between much drier air aloft to the north, and deep tropical moisture to the south. A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms currently extended from about Brooksville to over 60 nm west of Cedar Key. The showers/storms were moving to the southeast, and should begin to weaken and dissipate to some extent over the next couple of hours...before regenerating around or just before sunrise down towards the Tampa Bay area...then increasing in areal coverage during the morning/early afternoon and spreading inland. West to southwest boundary layer flow continues, and will hold over the region through early next week. The onshore winds over the coastal waters will create a high risk of rip currents along area beaches through Saturday. The west/southwest flow will also promote nighttime showers/storms to form over the eastern Gulf and advect onshore during the late night/early morning hours each day. Breaks in convection will occur, typically during the mid/late afternoon and evening hours as the atmosphere takes 6 to 12 hours to recover and destabilize before the process repeats. Although caveat will be U/L energy dropping over the region Saturday through Monday which will aid in large scale lift/destabilization across the northern/central forecast area.

Over the weekend, an anomalously sharp U/L trough will dig over the eastern U.S. with an associated frontal boundary pushing across the southeast U.S. on Saturday, and stalling over the Florida panhandle on Sunday. This will enhance the deep southwest flow over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula and will create large scale lift across the region. This will aid in developing numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms over the northern/central coastal waters which will again move onshore much of west central Florida both Saturday and Sunday. This will also increase the risk for flooding from approximately the Sarasota/Bradenton area and north to Levy county. Heaviest rainfall totals will likely be near and along the coast.

Very deep tropical moisture persists over west central Florida with the 31/00Z TBW sounding indicating PCPW of 2.34 inches...and this is expected to persist over the region through the weekend and into early next week. Goes without saying that showers/thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain/flooding for the next several days. 2 to 4 inch rainfall bullseyes will be likely each day, with locally higher amounts possible. The main threat for flooding should be from the Sarasota/Bradenton and north...but could also impact southwest Florida due to the abundant deep layer moisture over the region. However, the threat is not as high as for the northern/central forecast area. As daily rainfall totals mount, areas that do receive higher rainfall totals will become increasingly at risk for flooding each following day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms the remainder of tonight and Friday at PIE/TPA/SRQ with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs. An isolated shower is possible at PGD/FMY/RSW through late tonight with very brief MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after sunrise vcnty LAL/PGD/RSW/FMY with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 1230 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 West to southwest flow will persist through the weekend and into early next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and pushing onshore around and shortly after sunrise each day. Cautionary level winds will occur on portions of the waters for the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 86 81 87 78 / 70 40 70 60 FMY 88 80 91 77 / 40 20 50 30 GIF 86 77 89 76 / 70 20 60 30 SRQ 86 81 89 77 / 60 40 50 60 BKV 86 78 87 74 / 80 50 80 60 SPG 86 82 87 79 / 60 40 60 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.