textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Light showers and a stray storm today over SW Florida.

- Warming trend the remainder of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 830 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Radar imagery shows scattered showers mostly just offshore of coastal counties from Tampa Bay southward into SWFL where a weak Gulf sea breeze is in place. This activity may linger over the next couple of hours but will gradually weaken as diurnal heating continues to fade. Otherwise, overnight lows will fall into the low/mid 60s for the Nature Coast and inland locations but coastal areas may only fall into the upper 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

A stationary boundary stretches across the Keys while a weak upper-level disturbance is located to the west of the Florida peninsula. The weather over the next few days will be benign with sporadic air mass showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday afternoon.

On Wednesday weak ridging will settled in place over the peninsula decreasing convection and causing temperatures to increase several degrees above typical values. With highs in the low 90s near the coast and the mid 90s farther inland. Thankfully, this ridge will be short lived as another weak front will stall across central Florida by the end of the week. With the front afternoon rain chances will increase with afternoon PoPs around 30 to 50%.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with ESE winds overnight around 5 kts. Winds then shift onshore at coastal sites by late afternoon and evening on Tuesday with wind speeds around 5-10 kts throughout the day.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

ASCAT analysis shows east winds between 10 to 20 knots. Buoys data shows waves below 4 feet. Winds will slowly shift over the week becoming southernly by Wednesday then southwest later in the week. A weak boundary will increase showers on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Minimum RH values will be below 40% in the afternoon but wind levels will be below critical levels. Moisture will begin to return tomorrow but minimum RH values will remain between 30 to 50%. Overnight moisture values recover to near 100%. Rain chances will be spotty with popup showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 88 71 90 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 69 90 70 91 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 66 89 69 94 / 10 10 0 0 SRQ 67 88 69 88 / 20 0 0 0 BKV 60 90 63 93 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 73 88 75 89 / 20 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.