textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday.

- Onshore winds expected over the weekend producing scattered showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours and moving eastward during the afternoon/evening.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 744 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Similar to yesterday, scattered showers and storms, VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots prevail through the period. Showers and storms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with the highest storm chances over the interior around KLAL, and over southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. Will cover this with PROB30 and TEMPO groups between 18-01Z.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Weak high pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula today with light easterly boundary layer flow. W/V imagery continues to show best deep layer moisture remains south of the I-4 corridor, which will be the focus region for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Boundary layer flow will transition on Saturday becoming increasingly south to southwest. This will advect the deep layer moisture currently south of I-4 north across the nature coast, and will shift the region for highest pops to the interior. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected to develop during the morning/early afternoon hours and push inland increasing in areal coverage during the mid/late afternoon hours. This pattern will hold on Sunday.

Boundary layer flow will veer a bit to the south and southeast early next week. Highest pops will continue to persist over the interior as the west coast sea breeze boundary is expected to push inland by mid afternoon each day. During the mid/late week period, some drier air aloft may advect over the forecast area which would decrease areal coverage of storms, but still scattered afternoon/evening storms will occur each day.

MARINE

Issued at 1208 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the forecast period with relatively light winds and seas. The main hazard on Friday will be scattered showers and storms during the late afternoon/evening hours with locally gusty winds and rough seas. The pattern will shift a bit over the weekend with the best chance of storms during the overnight and early morning hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 80 91 81 / 60 20 50 30 FMY 92 78 92 78 / 60 30 50 40 GIF 94 76 93 76 / 60 30 70 30 SRQ 92 79 92 79 / 50 40 50 30 BKV 95 74 93 74 / 40 20 60 40 SPG 92 80 91 81 / 50 30 50 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.