textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of locally dense fog and low clouds possible this morning.

- Breezy northerly winds will produce hazardous boating conditions over the eastern Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from this afternoon through Saturday morning.

- Much cooler and drier conditions expected late Thursday through Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A closed upper low and surface low is located just north of the Great Lakes with associated broad upper troughing encompassing the east coast. An occluded front extends from the surface low to a triple point low located over New England. The warm front extends eastward over Nova Scotia as the associated cold front extends southward through the western Atlantic, across Florida and into the eastern Gulf. As this front moves across Florida, a low chance of showers will be possible through the morning hours as well as some areas of dense fog. The front moves south and east of Florida by this afternoon with clearing conditions expected. A 1037 MB surface high pressure center moves southeast from central Canada, builds in behind this front and will help usher in some cooler air for the next couple of days. Breezy northerly winds will advect in this cooler air with daytime highs only reaching the 60's and 70's for most of west central and southwest Florida on Friday and Saturday. The coldest air will settle in on Friday and Saturday mornings with lows dipping into the mid 30's along the Nature Coast and mid 40's to low 50's for central and southwest Florida. Breezy northerly winds will also produce wind chill values in the low to mid 30's from Tampa Bay area northward along the Nature Coast on Friday and Saturday mornings.

By Saturday afternoon, a more zonal upper pattern sets up over Florida as surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest over Florida. This will allow for a gradual warm up for the latter part of the weekend and into the first half of next week. Near average to slightly above average temps expected Sunday through Tuesday. By Tuesday morning, models develop another area of low pressure over the southeast U.S. and move it northeastward toward the mid-Atlantic states. The associated cold front will move across Florida on Tuesday afternoon producing the next chance of showers, with the highest coverage over the Nature Coast. This front clears the area by Wednesday morning as high pressure builds into the area. This will produce a slight cool down for the latter part of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Locally dense fog will develop this morning with LIFR VSBYs/CIGs vcnty all terminals. The fog will lift around sunrise at the central terminals of TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ...and an hour or so later at PGD/RSW/FMY. VFR CIGs will persist the remainder of the afternoon with skies becoming SCT around or shortly after sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 120 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A chance of showers will be possible this morning in the vicinity of a cold front moving across the region. The cold front will push southeast of Florida by this evening and strong high pressure builds into the area from the northwest in the wake of this front. This will produce gusty northerly winds reaching Small Craft Advisory level by this afternoon and continuing through Saturday morning. This has warranted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for all the eastern Gulf waters including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Decreasing winds to around 10-15 knots expected on Sunday and into next week. The next cold front brings showers for next Tuesday, but winds and seas should remain below headline criteria.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A cold front moves through the area today and will produce a chance of showers along the Nature Coast, but most of the area should stay rain-free. Some dry air with low RH values below 35 percent will settle into the area in the wake of this front today and Friday, but winds are expected to remain below 15 mph, so no Red Flag Warning should be needed. Moisture rebounds by Saturday with no other fire weather concerns anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 46 65 48 / 10 0 0 0 FMY 81 50 69 51 / 10 0 0 0 GIF 74 44 64 47 / 20 0 0 0 SRQ 76 49 66 49 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 72 36 63 38 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 73 50 64 53 / 10 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.