textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Decreasing cloudiness and warmer today. - Gradual return to more typical summertime pattern early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

High pressure remains over the E Seaboard this morning with E/NE flow locally and continued limited moisture over the area. Thursday evening's 05/00Z sounding measured a PW value of 1.37 inches, which is very near the 25th percentile climatologically, and with this dry air remaining in place today shower chances remain slim to none. Cloud cover will not be as widespread as in previous days, therefore afternoon highs will climb a few degrees higher into the upper 80s/lower 90s.

Upper ridging builds over the E Gulf and E U.S. over the weekend favoring warming temps locally with only gradual moisture recovery, leading to afternoon highs climbing into the lower/mid 90s on Saturday, with mid 90s expanding in coverage on Sunday and Monday as most area highs run around 5-8 degrees above normal. Isolated shower/storm chances return across far SWFL locations on Sunday, with isolated to scattered chances expanding northward to around the I-4 corridor on Monday, before more hastened moisture recovery early to mid week as the ridging breaks down. Scattered to numerous chances spread across the remainder of the CWA from around mid week and beyond due to the potential combination of a frontal boundary dropping southward into the area with trailing high pressure building down the E Seaboard setting up easterly flow locally while moisture advects northward out of the Caribbean into the Gulf. Temps likely to drop a few degrees given the increased convection and cloud cover, into the upper 80s/lower 90s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Lingering VFR cigs gradually improve remainder of overnight into the morning. Easterly winds throughout period, elevated during afternoon before diminishing in the evening. WCFL coastal sites may shift toward onshore for a few hours late afternoon into evening then returning easterly.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

High pressure over the waters with gradually improving marine conditions into the weekend, with winds 10-15 knots and seas 2-3 feet today abating to 1-2 feet on Saturday. Slight chance of a shower or storm across the far southern waters today, generally dry on Saturday, then gradually increasing chances spreading northward across the waters late weekend through next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

High pressure continues over the region with minimal fire concerns expected aside from spotty high dispersions through the weekend. Moisture gradually returns late weekend into next week further limiting local fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 73 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 90 71 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 90 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 92 71 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 92 66 94 68 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 93 74 94 76 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.