textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions continue with near record high temperatures and heat index values of up to 105.

- Decreasing rain chances during the upcoming week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Best shower chances will be midday for coastal sites from KSRQ northward, then a few storms are expected near KLAL after 18Z. Rain chances are overall on the lower side, so have not included any TEMPO groups at this time. West winds will push everything eastward through the afternoon and evening. No concerns overnight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The big factor for the rest of the weekend and into our work week will be the Saharan dust that will remain over the area. For Sunday the weakened trough that has helped to bring scattered showers on Saturday in spit of the SAL will continue to sit over the area. The main difference today will be a strong westerly bring aloft. This will keep most of the shower activity on the east coast of Florida keeping drier conditions on the west coast.

As we head into our Monday the trough will be gone but a frontal boundary will settle into south Georgia. This boundary will help to keep PW on the higher side along the Nature Coast where we will see scattered showers and storms. Elsewhere the SAL will keep us dry and warm with high in the mid 90's.

Tuesday through Thursday looks to be when the Saharan Dust will be in its highest concentration. This will pretty much turn off our summertime thunderstorms and help to crank up the heat. Highs during this period will be in the upper 90's with 100 not out of the question in some of our interior areas. However, the drier air will also keep afternoon humidity lower which should keep heat index in the 105 range.

By Friday and Saturday the Saharan dust will finally start to slowly dissipate. THis will bring some isolated showers back into the forecast for Friday. The better chances of rain returns on Saturday with scattered storms finally returning to the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The weather will remain pretty quiet through next Thursday with winds staying between 5 to 10 knots with minimal shower chances each day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Our main concern through Thursday will be the dry and hot conditions we will see thanks to the Saharan Dust. Scattered showers will be possible both today and Monday along the Nature Coast but besides that we will remain dry.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 81 94 81 / 20 10 10 0 FMY 96 79 96 78 / 10 10 10 0 GIF 96 76 97 76 / 30 10 10 0 SRQ 94 79 94 79 / 10 10 10 0 BKV 94 76 95 75 / 30 10 30 10 SPG 93 81 94 82 / 10 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.