textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- While drier air aloft will limit thunderstorm chances and rain totals each day this week, the potential for strong wind gusts is higher in thunderstorms that do form. Have multiple ways to receive weather alerts.

- Afternoon max temperatures will top out in the mid 90s over the interior and the lower 90s near the coast, with heat index values maxing out around 103-109 each day this week. There is a Moderate to Extreme HeatRisk; be sure to practice good heat safety if spending prolonged periods outside.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula and will largely hold in place through early next week. In the mid\upper levels, ridging over Florida will gradually build into the southeastern US by late in the week. This pattern will favor broad subsidence that will result in above normal temperatures and unseasonably limited rain chances each day this week. Although the model consensus has backed off the extreme low PoPs that were in the forecast from 24 hours ago, rain coverage is still forecast to generally range from 10-40 percent each day through Thursday, with 7-day QPFs of around 0.10 to 1.00 inches.

Otherwise, temperatures will run above normal, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s over the interior and low 90s along the coast. With typical summer humidity and minimal rain to cool things off, heat index values will max out each day from around 103-109. As a result, a heat advisory has been issued for most of west central and southwest Florida for this afternoon, with the exception of coastal portions of the counties north of the Tampa Bay.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours. The possible exception will be from mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with the highest rain chances over the interior around KLAL.

MARINE

Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will ridge west into the eastern Gulf through the rest of the week. This will keep winds and seas below headline criteria, turning onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze. Drier air will generally limit thunderstorm chances through the rest of the week, but a few stray storms will be possible each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Surface high pressure will ridge across the Florida Peninsula through the next several days with light winds and limited rain chances. No Red Flag concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 78 92 78 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 94 77 94 77 / 10 10 40 0 GIF 95 76 95 76 / 30 10 0 0 SRQ 93 77 93 77 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 93 75 92 75 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 93 79 92 80 / 10 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.