textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters over the next several days, mainly during the evening and overnight hours.

- A cooler and drier airmass with below average temperatures will continue through most of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 The pattern aloft this afternoon features ridging over the southern U.S./Mexico with a low off the mid-Atlantic coast and troughing extending southward over Florida. At the surface, high pressure is settled north of the state with low pressure moving up the eastern seaboard. This setup will keep relatively cool and dry conditions in place through the next few days.

For Friday into the weekend, a cutoff low tries to form south of the region before opening up and moving northeast while a surface low attempts to organize along an old frontal boundary near the Bahamas. This pattern shift will allow northeast winds to increase once again as the pressure gradient tightens and will also lead to an increase in moisture for the southern part of the state. For the local forecast area, this will mean a slight uptick in rain chances mainly over southwest Florida and parts of the interior this weekend into early next week along with an increase in humidity. Highs will continue a few degrees below normal (closer to normal for southwest Florida) and lows will remain below normal as well but then increase by a few degrees for the latter half of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Northeast winds will continue over the waters for the next few days. Wind speeds will generally remain around 15 knots during the daytime, but will increase to exercise caution and close to advisory criteria each night. Starting Friday afternoon, winds will once again increase to advisory levels, with some gusts to gale force expected, and remain elevated into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next few days as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 65 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 62 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 55 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 67 80 66 81 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.