textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain-free conditions with warming temperatures expected through mid week.

- Late night and early morning fog potential gradually increases through mid week.

- Cold front approaches mid to late week with slight rain chances, followed by higher rain chances with weekend frontal system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

W/NW flow aloft over the state this morning between C U.S. ridge and W Atlantic trough, with a shortwave digging SE across the Plains/MS Valley undercutting the ridge, while a surface high across the E U.S. ridges south into the peninsula. Shortwave dampens as it moves across the SE U.S. through tonight bringing mainly some mid/upper clouds locally, followed by U/L ridging building northward across the Gulf into mid week favoring mainly benign conditions and gradually increasing temps and moisture along with late night/early morning fog potential locally. A cold front sinks south into the state around mid week as a shortwave move east across the N Gulf bringing perhaps slight rain chances (10-15 percent) as PWs climb to around an inch, more typical of this time of year following the overall cold dry conditions of most of early February. Ridging then holds through late week into the weekend before a more potent shortwave emerges over the SW U.S. before traversing the Srn Plains and E U.S. over the weekend, with an associated surface low pressure system developing over the C/E U.S. and dragging a cold front across the local area late in the weekend bringing higher rain chances (30-50 percent) across most of the area with perhaps a slight chance of storms. Drier conditions return early next week. Morning lows remain a bit below normal the next few mornings, from the 30s north to around 50 immediate coastal and south this morning and Tuesday morning, gradually warming into the 50s during the latter half of the week. Highs run near to slightly above normal through the period, in the 70s this afternoon but in the 70s to lower 80s for the remainder of the week through the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Dry VFR through the period with light winds overnight gradually increasing and shifting onshore late morning into afternoon as the sea breeze develops, generally 5-8 knots, before again diminishing during the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

High pressure over the Eastern U.S. ridging south into the peninsula will maintain winds generally 10 knots or less with slight seas around a foot. Winds will shift to onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. A cold front approaches the waters just after mid week, leading to increased moisture and some fog potential along with slight rain chances.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

High pressure over the Eastern U.S. ridging south into the peninsula will maintain rain-free conditions with periods of afternoon critical relative humidity values today and Tuesday, but winds remaining below 15 mph and expected Low SFP should limit fire overall fire concerns, before moisture gradually recovers around mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 73 50 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 76 51 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 76 48 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 71 48 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 75 38 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 72 53 74 57 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.