textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 219 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the next week.

- Onshore flow will continue through the first half of the week, keeping the highest storm chances over inland areas each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 The surface ridge axis will remain over south Florida through the first part of the week, keeping a mainly westerly flow in place across the local area. This will continue to bring in deep moisture and scattered showers over the Gulf and coastal regions in the morning that then move inland for the afternoon and evening. A weak frontal boundary will stall north of the area for late Tuesday into Wednesday, increasing rain chances somewhat for the Nature Coast, but rain chances will actually decrease some for the rest of the forecast area as some relatively drier air moves in.

For the rest of the week, the ridge axis will shift northward slightly, allowing winds to become more southeast/south for our southern zones, south for our central zones, and southwest for the northern zones, with scattered storms developing each day with the sea breeze. A front then approaches Friday night and starts to push southward on Saturday before stalling/washing out.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Best storm chances through the rest of the day are for KLAL, though chances are fairly low. For tomorrow, some stray showers will be near the coast in the morning, then activity will shift eastward through the rest of the day.

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 High pressure will hold south of the waters through Wednesday, keeping mainly westerly and southwesterly flow in place. As the ridge starts to lift north Wednesday night and Thursday, winds will become more southerly. Winds and seas will generally remain less than headline criteria, although occasional thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds each day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative humidity values remain above critical levels. West to southwest flow will continue, with the best rain chances over the interior.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 91 81 91 / 0 20 0 30 FMY 78 91 79 92 / 10 20 0 10 GIF 76 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 40 SRQ 80 91 80 91 / 0 20 0 20 BKV 78 92 78 92 / 10 20 0 30 SPG 81 91 81 91 / 0 20 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.