textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog, some of which may be locally dense, will be possible during the late night and early morning hours for the next several days.

- Much cooler temperatures arrive Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

High pressure will dominate through the weekend with fair dry weather and pleasant temperatures and humidity continuing. The only issue will be the development of some fog each night into the early morning hours each day. Best chances for fog still appear to be across the Nature Coast, but as the flow becomes more southwest to west over the weekend we could begin to see some sea fog across the northern coastal waters. Depending on how high the dew points get over the weekend some of this sea fog may develop further south into and around Tampa Bay.

During Monday and Monday night a strong cold front will sweep through the region, but moisture looks to be limited with this boundary so not expecting much more than a few light showers/sprinkles associated with it. Behind the front much cooler drier air will overspread the region for much of next week. How cold it actually gets though depends on which global model you like. The GFS has continued rather cold with freezing temperatures possible across parts of the Nature Coast, while the ECMWF has been trending a little warmer. For now the potential to see some freezing temperatures continues across parts of the Nature Coast for Wednesday and Thursday morning.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Some late night and early morning fog will be possible over inland areas tonight into Thursday morning. Majority of this fog should be remain shallow if it develops at the TAF sites with the exception being at LAL where we could see some MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF forecast period. Northeast to east winds at 5 to 10 knots will shift to north to northwest at TPA, PIE and SRQ this afternoon as the sea breeze tries to develop. Winds diminish and become light this evening then increase to around 5 knots from the northeast Thursday morning before shifting to northwest at 5 to 10 knots Thursday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

High pressure will hold over the waters through the weekend with winds remaining below headline criteria. There is the possibility of some land fog spreading into the near shore waters early in the mornings later this week into the weekend. Early next week a cold front will sweep across the waters with northwest to north winds increasing to advisory levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

High pressure settling into the eastern Gulf will keep rain free conditions in place with winds less than 15 mph. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels through the upcoming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 59 79 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 58 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 57 81 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 58 78 58 77 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 50 80 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 63 77 62 75 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.