textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures and humid conditions will create widespread heat index values of 102 to 109 degrees today.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with dangerous lightning will develop each day through the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Weak surface high pressure is ridging from the Atlantic across northern Florida today, keeping light winds and hot temperatures in place. Moisture will continue to fill into the area, leading to scattered to numerous showers and storms across most of the area. The highest rain chances will generally be over the interior, as winds will quickly turn to westerly this afternoon and clear out the immediate coast. With afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s, heat index values are forecast to top out around 108-109 over parts of the Nature Coast today, and a Heat Advisory has been issued from noon to 7 PM for Levy, Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties. Farther to the south, heat index values are mainly expected to peak around 102-107, although a few isolated locations may see higher values.

On Sunday, the surface ridge will shift southeast into the Atlantic as a cold front stalls out north of Florida. This will setup generally westerly flow that will hold through the rest of the week. Under this pattern, a few showers or storms will develop over the eastern Gulf during the late night hours and could shift onshore throughout the morning, then scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop each afternoon over the Florida Peninsula with the highest rain chances over the interior as the west coast sea breeze pushes inland. The westerly flow will also help to moderate afternoon temperatures back down to near normal for late July.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 806 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Lighter flow today will keep much of the shower and storm activity along the interior of the state. If we see storms along our coastal sites it should occur during the early afternoon. VFR conditions with winds below 10 knots expected outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

High pressure ridging into the northeastern Gulf from the Atlantic will retreat southeast through the weekend, with light east flow this morning becoming northwesterly this afternoon and into Sunday, then becoming westerly by Monday and holding through at least midweek. Winds will generally remain less than 15 knots through Tuesday outside of daily thunderstorms. Wind speeds will increase on Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

No humidity concerns through the weekend. Light easterly flow will turn to westerly this afternoon and continue through Sunday. Scattered to numerous storms will be possible each afternoon, with the highest chances over the interior.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 81 92 81 / 30 10 30 20 FMY 92 78 92 79 / 40 20 60 20 GIF 96 77 95 78 / 50 30 70 20 SRQ 93 80 93 80 / 30 20 40 20 BKV 95 77 94 77 / 30 10 30 40 SPG 92 81 92 81 / 20 20 20 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.