textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will continue in our interior counties over the next several hours. - Gusty winds over the coastal waters will continue to cause rough marine conditions through Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 A low pressure system just northwest of Key West is helping to bring a lot of tropical moisture over the area. This has brought widespread showers especially to our interior counties south of I-4. Some areas across Highlands, Hardee, and DeSoto Counties have received over 11 inches of rain. This has cause flash flooding over that area including impassable roads and water entering some homes. The rainfall rate has fallen in the area but rain is continuing right now. Models have had a terrible time handling this event but follow current trends we should see rain continuing its downward trend and hopefully stopping in the next few hours.

As we head into our Tuesday and Wednesday this low will slowly drift southwesterly away from the state. However our southerly flow will remain. This will help to bring scattered showers across the area Tuesday and Wednesday but not expecting the widespread showers we saw today. However, even an isolated heavy shower over the already over saturated ground in the inland areas could bring some more flooding concerns.

As we head into Thursday and Friday the low pressure system will be dissipating as drier air starts to filter in. Temperatures will be slightly above average with lows in the upper 60's and highs in the mid 80's.

Saturday looks to be very similiar to our Thursday and Friday. However, by Sunday morning we will see our next cold front push through the area. This front will not bring a lot of shower activity but will big cooler air to start our next work week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 237 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

MVFR and IFR CIGS should slowly lift over the next few hours. A few showers will still be possible across SW FL but the rest of our TAF sites should remain dry over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain elevated through the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Winds will remain elevated out of the east around 15 to 20 knots through the day on Tuesday as a low pressure sit just off the coast of Key West. Scattered showers will also be possible throughout the day on Tuesday. Winds will start to come down on Wednesday and remain at or below 10 knots for the rest of our work week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 237 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Widespread showers across much of the area today will keep any fire danger very low through the rest. Scattered shower will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday before we start to dry out Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 71 85 72 / 70 10 50 10 FMY 81 71 86 72 / 80 20 60 20 GIF 82 70 86 71 / 80 30 50 10 SRQ 81 70 85 71 / 80 20 50 20 BKV 83 68 86 69 / 70 20 50 10 SPG 79 72 83 72 / 80 20 50 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch until 3 PM EST this afternoon for DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Polk.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.