textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Late night and early morning patchy mist/fog potential next few days.

- Above normal to near-record high temperatures over inland areas through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances Friday through Sunday for the northern Nature Coast and interior before area wide chances with a cold front on Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a warm and dry air mass holding over most of the Florida Peninsula, while increasing moisture pushes into northern Florida associated with an approaching cold front. This front is on track to stall out over northern Florida tonight without dropping temperatures any, but it will bring in some chances of rain to the Nature Coast and parts of the interior beginning tonight.

The main forecast concern overnight will be the chances of patchy fog developing during the early morning hours as moisture starts to increase ahead of the front. The current forecast looks on track, and no changes are planned for the evening update.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions will hold through at least midnight. Overnight, patchy fog and low stratus is expected to develop and could cause periods of MVFR or IFR/LIFR during the early morning hours. VFR conditions should return by around 14z and hold through the rest of the day. A few showers will be possible during the afternoon, but the highest rain chances will be north and east of area TAF sites.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Generally benign marine conditions continue today as a boundary to the north slowly sinks toward the waters over the coming days. South through southwest winds expected across most of the waters through the weekend before the front pushes across the waters early next week with showers and storms followed by drier conditions in the wake of the front as winds shift to northerly.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Elevated fire risk this afternoon for interior counties with critical RHs and 10-15 mph winds before moisture recovers this evening. Gradually increasing moisture over the peninsula the next few days should temper fire concerns as a frontal boundary to the north slowly sinks south into the area, then pushes across the state early next week with showers and storms followed by relatively cooler and drier air filtering into the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 75 90 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 72 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 72 94 74 95 / 0 30 10 10 SRQ 73 88 74 89 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 72 91 70 92 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 76 90 76 90 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.