textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather with increased rain chances through the weekend and into early next week. Strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are likely.

- There is a low, 30 percent, chance of a low pressure system forming in the Eastern Gulf over the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 A mid level area of low pressure persists over the southeast Gulf and is expected to gradually lift north over the next 24 to 48 hours. There is no surface circulation at this point. The National Hurricane Center has this system tagged with a low probability (30 percent) of developing over the next 7 days. The main impact expected with this system across west central and southwest Florida will be periods of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. A few strong storms will be possible today and Sunday with strong gusty winds and heavy rain. Localized flooding of streets and low lying areas is also possible.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop after about 3 to 4 AM over the coastal waters around the mouth of Tampa Bay and south...and are expected to push slowly north and northeast onshore around sunrise. This is a rather complex situation as there are numerous boundaries that lie across the coastal counties and near shore waters as a result of yesterdays convection, which could be the focus for additional shower/thunderstorm development this morning. In fact, a few showers have already begun to redevelop along the Charlotte county coast. Also, given the nature of the numerous remnant boundaries, there will be the potential for waterspouts over the coastal waters mainly through the morning hours.

Also, if the mid level system retrogrades a bit further west on Saturday, the bulk of the convection later today could remain over the coastal waters with only the eastern edge over the coastal counties. Expect any convection that does develop to push offshore this evening...with redevelopment likely again late Saturday night from about Venice and north. Again, convection is expected to push onshore around or shortly before sunrise with the best chance for rain on Sunday over the coastal counties north of about Sarasota. Locally heavy rain will again be possible along with a few strong storms.

Quite a bit of uncertainty with the forecast for the early part of next week as much depends on the eventual movement/dynamics of the mid/upper level system. Relatively high pops will likely persist across the nature coast due to southwest onshore boundary layer flow...being in the region of best available deep layer moisture...and potential lift from the mid/upper level low.

The system should have exited the region to the northeast by mid week with some drier air aloft advecting over the forecast area. The drier air aloft combined with continued onshore southwest flow should decrease pops across the region...with highest pops over the interior and north.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Patchy MVFR CIGs the remainder of the night 020-025 vcnty all terminals. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late tonight over the coastal waters and move locally onshore. Initially, the best chance for showers/storms will be at SRQ/PGD/RSW/FMY around or shortly before sunrise with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. The showers/storms will push north and may impact PIE/TPA during the morning to early afternoon hours. Showers and storms will also be possible at LAL mainly during the afternoon, although the bulk of the activity will likely stay to the west of LAL.

MARINE

Issued at 1236 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms will occur over the coastal waters through early next week as a mid/upper level area of low pressure persists over the waters. A few strong storms will be possible which could produce locally strong winds, rough seas, and frequent cloud to water lightning. The gradient may increase a bit over the weekend, but winds/seas are expected to remain below cautionary levels attm. Conditions will begin to improve by the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Abundant low level moisture will hold over the region through the weekend which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 78 90 80 / 70 60 60 60 FMY 90 78 92 79 / 60 30 40 30 GIF 93 75 94 77 / 40 20 50 20 SRQ 90 78 91 79 / 70 60 60 60 BKV 92 73 91 74 / 70 40 60 40 SPG 88 79 89 80 / 70 70 70 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.