textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through early next week.

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms will develop each day through the next week, with the highest rain chances in the afternoon and early evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

In the mid/upper levels, a blocking ridge over the southwestern US will hold in place through the rest of the week, while a broad trough lingers over the eastern US. At the surface, the sub- tropical ridge is expected to stretch from the western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula through the week, while a stalled frontal boundary holds north of the state. This pattern will favor deep moisture building across the forecast area today and Wednesday and holding in place through the rest of the week and into early next week. For today, isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop from around the Tampa Bay and I-4 corridor south, with more numerous storms expected over the Nature Coast counties to the north. Under the increasing moisture to the south of the frontal boundary, rain coverage will become more widespread Wednesday and Thursday, with this relatively wet pattern forecast to hold through the weekend and into early next week.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 847 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

We will see very similiar patter today with isolated showers mainly in West Central Florida around PIE, TPA, and LAL. Winds will be mainly out of the west and southwest with VFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will ridge across the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf through the rest of the week. This will setup generally south and southeast flow over the southern waters, and more south and southwest flow to the north. Wind speeds will generally remain less than 15 knots, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally higher winds and roughs seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

No humidity concerns. Moisture will increase today and Wednesday, leading to increasing rain coverage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 91 77 / 40 10 40 20 FMY 95 77 93 76 / 20 10 70 50 GIF 94 74 94 74 / 30 20 70 30 SRQ 92 76 92 76 / 20 10 40 30 BKV 91 72 92 71 / 50 10 50 20 SPG 90 78 91 78 / 30 0 30 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.