textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold conditions through early this morning.

- Hazardous marine conditions are ongoing with a high risk of strong rip currents along area beaches today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 Canadian high pressure continues to bring frigid conditions to west central and southwest Florida. Temperatures of about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals persist across the region. A freeze warning is in effect through early this morning for all counties with the exception of Pinellas...and a cold weather advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area. However, winds have diminished and are generally 5 to 8 MPH across the region...which makes the wind chill values about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature.

The center of the area of high pressure will translate over the Florida peninsula today and the airmass will begin to modify. Although temperatures will be much warmer than yesterday, it will overall remain quite cold with high temperatures only in the mid to upper 50s under sunny skies. The only hazard that will persist today will be a high risk of rip currents at area beaches.

Generally clear skies to start Monday night which will initially create ideal conditions for strong radiational cooling to develop. Temperatures will fall quickly after sunset dropping into the mid to upper 30s during the evening hours. Some high cloudiness will advect over the region overnight which will aid in only allowing temperatures to hold steady or fall slowly the remainder of the night. Overnight lows will drop generally into the 30 to 32 range across the entire forecast area away from the coast with several hours expected at or just below freezing. A freeze warning is in effect for the nature coast and inland west central and southwest Florida Monday night. Widespread frost is also expected.

The warm up will continue on Tuesday, but temperatures will again remain below climatic normals with highs generally in the mid 60s. Temperatures across the entire forecast area are expected to remain above freezing Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 30s across the nature coast...the upper 30s to around 40 central...and lower to mid 40s south.

The area of high pressure will finally shift east of Florida on Wednesday as another cold front approaches north Florida late in the day. Increasing cloudiness with high temperatures in the upper 60s north...lower to mid 70s central and south.

The cold front will push across the forecast area Wednesday night and early Thursday with showers moving across the region ahead of the front, with the highest pops north. Drier cooler air will advect across the forecast area in the wake of the front Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will drop back down to about 10 to 12 degrees below climatic normals, with the potential for freezing temperatures across the nature coast Thursday night. A secondary dry cold front will push across the forecast area on Saturday which will reinforce the cool dry air over the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 742 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions through the period with winds out of the north generally below 15 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 Winds and seas continue to subside, although seas remain rather elevated due to conditions over the past 24 to 36 hours. Conditions will gradually improve today and Monday night as the center of the high builds over the waters with relatively light winds developing. An approaching cold front mid week will cause winds to veer to the south and southwest. The front will push across the waters Wednesday night and early Thursday with winds increasing out of the northwest in the wake of the front. Cautionary and possible advisory level winds will develop on Thursday, with the winds subsiding Thursday night and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 The dry air over the region will allow minimum relative humidity values to drop below critical values across much of the forecast area which will create elevated fire weather conditions. However winds will be less than 15 MPH. A bit of moisture recovery across northern areas on Tuesday, but minimum relative humidity values will drop below critical levels central and south...however, winds again are expected to remain below critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 55 37 65 47 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 60 36 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 56 33 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 57 39 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 55 30 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 56 41 65 50 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.