textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 833 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Daily maximum heat index values of 105+ degrees continue areawide.

- Generally isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week mainly interior and southwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Upper ridging and surface high pressure extends across south Florida and into the central Gulf. This will allow for a continued predominant onshore westerly flow over the west coast of Florida with PWAT values today ranging between 1.5-1.9 inches. Abundant moisture and onshore flow will once again favor the highest rain and storm chances (20-50 percent) over the interior and east coast of Florida.

A little farther to the north, upper troughing extends south through the Ohio River Valley in support of an area of low pressure located near eastern TN/KY and another area of low pressure located near eastern PA. The associated frontal boundary extends from this low near PA, southwestward to TN, then further southwestward to LA. This front will sag southward over north central Florida on Wednesday. Some slightly drier air will move into north central Florida in the wake of this front with PWAT values dropping to around 1.2-1.6 inches for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. This will allow for even lower rain chances (20-40 percent) in the vicinity of this front and over the interior.

The front washes out by Thursday morning with moisture rebounding to around 1.6-2.1 inches by the end of the week and into the weekend. The ridge will also lift slightly northward through central Florida producing a neutral wind flow on Saturday and Sunday. Typical summertime scattered showers and isolated storms expected over the weekend and into the first of next week.

Temperatures will remain quite hot topping out in the low to mid 90s with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees each afternoon. Not much relief expected overnight with low temperatures also remaining quite warm and muggy only dipping into the mid 70s to around 80 each night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 833 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions expected today with winds out of the west. A weak boundary will be over Central Florida that will produce some isolated storms during the late morning hours so added a PROB30 during the later part of TPA TAFs.

MARINE

Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Pleasant boating conditions expected through the week with ridging over the waters. Mostly rain-free conditions, winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

High pressure remains in control through the week with hot and humid conditions expected. Minimal fire concerns expected aside from a few areas of higher dispersions this afternoon across the Nature Coast. Generally isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms expected, favoring areas away from the immediate coast through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 82 92 80 / 0 10 40 10 FMY 95 79 94 78 / 10 10 10 10 GIF 97 77 94 75 / 10 10 40 10 SRQ 93 81 92 79 / 10 10 20 10 BKV 95 77 94 73 / 0 30 40 10 SPG 93 81 92 80 / 0 10 30 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.