textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Rain chances return to southwest Florida Tuesday, with limited chances elsewhere.

- Summertime convective pattern returns second half of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The stalled front across the Florida Straits is beginning to lift north as a warm front. Therefore, as deeper moisture returns expect clouds and a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm to move into the southern waters later tonight and into southwest Florida Tuesday morning. This deep moisture will not make it into central Florida, but could still be enough moisture for a few afternoon showers up to around the I-4 corridor. Overall the current forecast looks on track with no changes needed at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Some showers and possibly a thunderstorm will return to southwest Florida Tuesday morning and everywhere during the afternoon. MVFR/possibly IFR conditions could accompany the convection, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Light winds overnight will become southeast 5 to 10 knots Tuesday morning then shift to south to southwest at 7 to 10 knots in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

This was the last morning of widespread 60's as we slowly transition back into a more summertime pattern.On Tuesday an upper level trough will push through South Florida. As it does so we could see some showers and storms, even as early as the morning hours, across the coastal areas south of I-4. The rest of us should remain dry on Tuesday but the humidity will be a little higher with lows around 70 degrees. Wednesday will be our transition day as the upper level troughing that has helped bring us the drier and cooler air will finally get cut off from the flow. As it does so high pressure will be working its way back in. This means scattered showers and storms will return but should remain a little on the lower end thanks to PW still around 1.75.

By Thursday and Friday high pressure over the Atlantic will be our domination weather influence. THis will bring east to southeasterly winds along with PWs back above 2 inches. This will fully bring back our summer time convection. The southeasterly flow should bring the highest totals inland in the afternoon and along the west coast in the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Saturday the ridge will start to shift more overhead. This could allow for a lighter flow regime. If we see the lighter flow we will continue to see scattered showers and storms but they will be more slow moving which results in some minor urban flooding. On Sunday the upper level ridge starts to shift into the Gulf. Models right now showing a small decrease in PW when that happens. This shouldn't bring a big change into the forecast but could bring shower chances down slightly.

MARINE

Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Winds will remain around 5 to 10 knots out of the south and southeast through Wednesday. High pressure in the Atlantic will start to build on Thursday and Friday. this will increase our winds to 15 to 20 knots out of the southeast with SCEC possible. We will see some showers in the Gulf tomorrow morning and afternoon mainly south of Pinellas coastline. Scattered showers and storms will continue in the forecast for everyone on Wednesday and through the rest of the week as moisture returns.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The drier air we saw during the weekend will slowly push away as southerly flow bring moisture back into the forecast. We will see a more typical summer time pattern with afternoon and evening storms starting on Wednesday through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 72 88 72 88 / 0 30 20 70 FMY 72 86 73 87 / 10 60 30 70 GIF 70 89 71 89 / 0 10 10 60 SRQ 72 87 72 87 / 10 50 40 70 BKV 70 89 70 89 / 0 10 10 60 SPG 74 86 74 87 / 10 40 20 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.