textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather with rain-free conditions and lower humidity expected through midweek.

- Moisture increases late in the week leading to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A strong U/L low near the four corners area is inducing downstream ridging over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Florida. This will another day of partly cloudy warm conditions to west central and southwest Florida today with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

The cut-off low will open up and lift northeast on Thursday and will be absorbed into the northern stream flow, with a relatively strong progressive U/L trough moving across the mid west and Ohio River valley Thursday night and Friday. The U/L ridge will exit east of Florida as a strong L/W trough rotates to the eastern seaboard Friday night, and over the western Atlantic on Saturday.

Deep layer moisture will begin to advect back over the forecast area on Thursday ahead of the front with PCPW values climbing to around or just above 2 inches...which will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over southwest Florida beginning Thursday afternoon...and the central and southern forecast area Friday afternoon. Warm conditions will persist with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 each day.

A cold front associated with the east coast U/L trough will move across the southeast U.S. Friday and will sink south and stall across the central Florida peninsula over the weekend as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Gradient will tighten with breezy east to northeast winds developing.

Still quite a bit of uncertainty in the extended portion of the forecast as the pooled deep layer moisture along the frontal boundary combined with convergent east to northeast flow along the front, and significant deep layer moisture across the region could create an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms over the weekend and continuing into Monday...with the best chance of rain central and south along and just south of the frontal boundary which will be the location of the best available deep layer moisture and instability. This scenario also depends on how far south the drier air in the wake of the front will be able to push down the Florida peninsula, which will likely set up a rather sharp north/south pop gradient somewhere across the central or southern forecast area. Models have shifted a bit further south in the past 24 hours...with the GFS still the furthest north across the central peninsula, which tends to be a bias of the model setting up the overrunning a bit too far north in the cold air. Leaning toward the Euro which pushes the boundary all the way down into south Florida. This would tend to create low end pops north/central, with best chance for rain south. Will continue to monitor evolution of this system as final location of stalled front will determine sensible weather across the forecast area over the weekend and into early next week.

Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normal through the remainder of the week. As the clouds and rainy conditions develop over the weekend, daytime high temperatures will likely be held to around or slightly below climatic normals...however, overnight lows should be near to slightly above climatic normals due to dew points in the mid 60s to around 70.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies the remainder of the night and Wednesday morning, with FEW-SCT 040-050 Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1204 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the end of the week with winds below cautionary levels. A cold front will move across the waters Friday night and Saturday and stall across the central or southern waters over the weekend. The gradient will tighten with advisory level winds possible. Areas of rain with embedded isolated thunderstorms possible over the weekend across the southern waters...and possibly over portions of the central waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1204 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected through the week and over the weekend as sufficient moisture will be in place to keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 72 89 76 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 90 74 91 75 / 0 0 60 30 GIF 89 71 91 74 / 0 0 20 0 SRQ 89 72 90 74 / 0 0 40 10 BKV 89 67 90 71 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 87 74 88 76 / 0 0 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.