textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire potential this afternoon across parts of interior counties.

- Late night and early morning patchy mist/fog potential next few days.

- Above normal to near-record high temperatures over inland areas through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances Friday through Sunday for the northern Nature Coast and interior before area wide chances with a cold front on Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 910 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

No changes made to the existing forecast. Ridging over the area maintains warm and dry conditions. Elevated fire risk this afternoon over the interior from parts of Sumter southward through Highlands counties. Highs continue to run above normal with W/SW flow favoring afternoon temps reaching the low-mid 90s away from the coast, and the upper 80s immediate coastal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Another day with above average temperatures and mostly rain free conditions expected. The only exception will be over the Nature Coast as a weak frontal boundary moves into North Florida leading to a few isolated showers and possible storms. As the frontal boundary slowly drifts south on Friday, rain chances slightly increase, especially in the interior. The front drifts back north Sunday before a stronger front approaches the area Monday. Shower and storm chances increase ahead of the front Monday. Dry air will filter in behind the front, unfortunately cool air will not. Temperatures will still remain above normal following the front as high pressure moves back over the area by midweek.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 735 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Mainly VFR expected through the period, however hi-res guidance continues to indicate low to medium probabilities (20-50%) of MVFR-IFR vsbys for interior and SWFL terminals on Friday morning, while MOS guidance remains less aggressive. Will consider adding mention in subsequent cycles should run-to-run consistency continue. Otherwise expect W/SW flow 10-15 knots late morning through early evening, diminishing to around 5 knots overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Quiet conditions continue today as winds and seas remain low. A weak cold front approaches the northern waters and lingers over the next couple of days increasing winds. A stronger frontal boundary moves over the area Monday into Tuesday. A few showers and storms are expected to move over the waters as the front moves SE. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary or advisory levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Dry air lingers over the area, with RH values dipping near critical values. However moisture slowly begins to increase north to south as the weekend approaches. A stronger cold front moves through Monday into Tuesday, and dry air will once again filter in behind it.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 76 90 75 / 0 10 10 0 FMY 91 72 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 95 73 93 74 / 0 0 20 0 SRQ 87 74 88 73 / 0 0 10 0 BKV 91 73 92 70 / 0 10 10 0 SPG 88 76 90 76 / 0 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.