textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible during the next couple of mornings.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and continue through Monday.

- Much cooler drier air arrives by next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

High pressure is holding across the region this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and temperatures approaching record highs over inland areas. This high will move out tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Showers and a few thunderstorms will move into the northern parts of the area Thursday morning and move southeast across the area during the day and exiting to the south toward evening. A few showers will linger overnight and we will see some slightly cooler drier air try to move in behind the boundary, but with winds will quickly veer to northeast so this will mainly be noticed across the Nature Coast.

For Friday high pressure will be over the southeast states with an easterly flow across the area. Just enough moisture will remain to allow for isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a thunderstorm. Highest rain chances will be over the southern interior and southwest Florida where the moisture will be.

Over the weekend, the high will setup well out in the Atlantic Ocean. An easterly low level flow will be across the region Saturday and with the sea breeze and daytime heating we'll see scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms develop. On Sunday, the flow shifts to southeast to south bringing deeper moisture north leading to more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. However, with the flow becoming more south to southwest the highest rain chances will be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula.

By Monday, the next cold front will be approaching from the northwest and unlike the one tomorrow, this one will usher in some much cooler drier air for a few days next week. More showers and thunderstorms will precede and accompany this front on Monday, then most of the rain chances will come to an end. The exception could be over the southern interior and southwest Florida during Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evening as there could be just enough moisture for a few showers.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through early tonight. Late tonight into Thursday morning some low clouds and fog could develop causing some IFR/local LIFR conditions. Winds will shift to westerly at around 10 knots as the sea breeze moves inland during this afternoon, then diminish and shift back to south at 5 knots or less, then increase to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts out of the south to southwest by late Thursday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Conditions will deteriorate Thursday as a cold front approaches the waters bringing increasing winds and chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish Friday, but a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend. A stronger cold front moves through on Monday, increasing winds and seas for the start of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as relative humidity values stay above critical levels and winds remain less than 15 mph through tonight. Winds are expected to increase to 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will precede and accompany the front Thursday into early Thursday night with moisture lingering through the weekend leading to more diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 83 63 83 / 0 60 20 20 FMY 68 86 67 86 / 0 40 20 40 GIF 68 86 63 82 / 0 50 30 30 SRQ 68 82 64 84 / 0 60 20 20 BKV 63 84 56 83 / 0 70 20 20 SPG 73 82 67 83 / 0 60 20 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.