textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue to run well above average through the middle of the week with some record high temperatures possible each day.

- Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible during the next couple of mornings.

- A cold front is forecast to push through the region on Thursday, bringing the next round of rain chances area-wide.

UPDATE

Issued at 810 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Limited shower activity across the region will continue to wind down over the next few hours. The main concern overnight will be patchy fog and low clouds that could develop and linger into Tuesday morning. Model guidance has continued to show a mix of both for tonight, which is leading to a bit of a tricky forecast. Currently think the best chances are for the Nature Coast region and then southwest Florida as well as along the coast as some lower ceilings take hold over the Gulf waters. Otherwise, it will be another mild night, with lows in the lower 60s to upper 60s, which is well above normal for this time of year. No major edits were needed to the forecast this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Strong ridging will remain over the area through Wednesday. This will keep near record breaking high temperatures in place each afternoon with highs near 90 degrees away from the coast. The main difference for the first half of the week will be the lack of shower activity that we have seen since last Thursday. Even though we see similiar PW values and a seabreeze setting up, 500 mb temperatures have warmed a few degrees. That doesn't seem like a big change but it will keep us more stable which will prevent the showers from forming.

Our next cold front is expected to push through on Thursday. As it does we should see a line of showers and storms push through the area sometime during the day that should give us some beneficial rain once again. This cold front will help to at least bring temperatures back down to average for next Friday. Another cold front will start to push through the southeast for the weekend which will allow the warmer and moist air to return. We will not see record highs but temperatures will get into the mid 80s with scattered showers each afternoon and evening.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The main issue for tonight will be the low clouds and fog that are expected to form across the region. Model guidance has been fluctuating on whether or not the TAF sites will be affected, so will not explicitly forecast those restrictions, but mention that the sites with the highest probability to be impacted are KTPA, KPIE, and KLAL. Conditions should return to VFR by 14Z or so, and VFR will then prevail through the rest of the day with low rain chances once again.

MARINE

Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

winds will start to shift more northeasterly for Monday through Tuesday but speeds will remain light around 5 knots. The bigger concern will be sea fog developing Monday night into Tuesday morning. By Wednesday winds will shift more southeasterly in response to a cold front that will start to push through the southeast. This front will push through us during the day on Thursday producing a line of showers and storms. Behind the front will will quickly pick up out of the northwest with speeds around 15 to 20 knots. Winds will quickly be coming down on Friday with winds staying out of the north.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Near record breaking heat will continue through Wednesday with RHs staying above critical levels with dry conditions. A front will push through on Thursday bring a line of showers and storms with it.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 88 69 87 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 68 90 67 89 / 10 0 0 0 GIF 68 90 67 90 / 10 10 0 0 SRQ 66 86 66 85 / 0 10 0 0 BKV 61 90 61 89 / 0 10 0 0 SPG 71 87 72 85 / 0 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.