textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief warm up expected today.

- Next cold front brings rain late this evening into Thursday.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected on Thursday.

- Next shot of freezing temperatures on Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Broad high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda ridges west-southwestward across Florida and into the Gulf. This will allow for light easterly winds this morning, becoming south-southwest by the afternoon. After a cool start this morning, temperatures will warm up nicely this afternoon topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. Looking to the northwest, a frontal boundary extends from the mid-Atlantic states southwestward to Louisiana. This cold front will make its way through Florida late this evening into Thursday with scattered showers expected. The cold front pushes south and east of Florida by Thursday evening with clearing conditions expected as high pressure builds in from the west. As this high pressure ridges eastward, another cold air mass will move into Florida on Friday morning with freezing temperatures likely once again north of Tampa Bay along the Nature Coast. This next shot of cold air will not be as potent and long lasting as the one over the past weekend and early this week. After starting out on the cold side Friday morning, a pleasant and mild day is expected on Friday afternoon with sunny skies and daytime highs reaching the low to mid 60s. A warming trend will continue through the weekend and into early next week with overnight lows Saturday through Wednesday mornings dipping only into the 40s each night. Daytime highs Saturday through early next week will top out in the 70s each day, and possible reaching the 80s by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 749 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions and light winds through 06z tonight. After that front will start to push through the area bringing scattered showers. CIGS will also be lowing bringing MVFR and IFR CIGS for our northern terminals by the early morning tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 124 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure ridging over Florida and into the Gulf will produce pleasant marine conditions with light winds less than 10 knots and seas 2 feet or less through this afternoon. A cold front moves through the eastern gulf waters late this evening into Thursday producing scattered showers and increasing winds and seas. Hazardous marine conditions expected starting Thursday morning with a Small Craft Advisory likely needed during the day on Thursday for winds around 20-25 knots and seas 5-8 feet. Conditions slowly improve on Friday to around 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet. Pleasant marine conditions continue into the weekend with winds around 10 knots and seas 2 feet or less expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure over the area will produce rain-free and dry conditions for today. RH values will briefly dip below critical levels for some interior areas today, but light winds below 15 mph will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. The next cold front will move through late this evening into Thursday producing scattered showers as it moves through the area. More dry air filters into the region behind this front on Friday and into the weekend with some critical RH values expected. But once again, the winds are expected to remain below 15 mph with no Red Flag Warnings needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 54 60 42 / 0 80 50 0 FMY 74 55 65 40 / 0 30 80 0 GIF 74 51 60 36 / 0 70 60 0 SRQ 69 52 62 43 / 0 70 60 0 BKV 72 44 59 32 / 0 80 40 0 SPG 69 55 61 47 / 0 80 50 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.