textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will slowly increase through the week, with high temperatures running about 5-10 degrees above normal by the end of the week.

- Some late night and early morning fog will return each day during the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

High pressure in the Mid Atlantic states will push into the Atlantic today .This will bring easterly flow across the area resulting in the warmest temperatures actually being along the west with highs in the low 80's while inland areas will be slightly cooler in the upper 70's. By Wednesday and Thursday ridging will remain overhead as high pressure stays in the Atlantic. This will help to continue our warm up with highs in the low to mid 80's.

By Friday and Saturday a strong cold front will start to push through the southeast. Ahead of this front we will see winds shift southerly bringing some tropical airmass over us. This will bring temperatures even higher with inland areas getting close to record breaking in the upper 80's. Models are in pretty good agreement that we will see the front pushing through during the day on Sunday. Currently we are not expecting a big rainfall event with this system but some isolated shower and storms will be possible.

Behind this system we will see much colder air compared to the one that just passed through. Highs on next Monday will stay in the 60's with lows next Tuesday morning in the mid to upper 30's in inland locations.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 227 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with winds shifting for the northeast to the east.

MARINE

Issued at 227 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

High pressure will move off into the Atlantic on our Tuesday. This will keep our winds out of the northeast today with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. As high pressure shifts south we will also be seeing the winds doing the same thing. From Wednesday through Saturday we will see winds out of the south between 5 to 10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 227 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

High pressure will stay in the Atlantic through the rest of our work week and into our Saturday. This will keep us warm and dry with min RHs in the 40's and 50's each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 61 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 82 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 80 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 79 60 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 81 53 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 79 63 78 64 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.