textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Pleasant weather with rain-free conditions and lower humidity expected through midweek.
- Moisture increases late in the week leading to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Strong high pressure will remain over the Southeast through Wednesday bringing drier air and seasonable temperatures across the state.
The upper level ridge will start to shift into the Atlantic as we get into our Thursday. As it does so we will see our flow switch more southeasterly. This will help to increase our moisture and bring shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast for the end of the week.
Our next front looks to head towards the state during the weekend. Once again it will stall across Florida bringing cloudy conditions and scattered showers to the south of the front with drier and cooler conditions north of it. Long range models agree with this generally solution but dont agree on where exactly it stalls. EURO has the front stalling along the I-4 corridor while the GFS keep the front in north Florida. Right now we will lean closer the EURO keeping drier and slightly cooler conditions north of I-4 with warmer and wetter conditions south.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
VFR conditions through the period with winds generally below 10 knots.
MARINE
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
High pressure will be present through Wednesday brining dry conditions and winds out of the northeast around 5 to 15 knots. High pressure moves off into the Atlantic on Thursday and Friday shifting winds more southeasterly still around 5 to 15 knots. Scattered showers and storms will return too. A cold front looks to stall across the state on Saturday. Winds will stay easterly but will increase rapidly throughout the day. By Saturday evening we will see sustained winds between 20 to 30 knots.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Drier conditions will remain over the state through Wednesday. After that winds will shift more southerly bringing some tropical moisture back and the return of afternoon and evening storms.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 71 87 72 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 72 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 89 70 89 71 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 88 71 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 88 65 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 87 73 87 74 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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