textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Lingering convection persists early this evening mostly across WCFL and adjacent waters and should diminish over the next few hours with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions overnight. Radar estimates and local ob sites scattered across parts of Pinellas, northwestern Hillsborough and southwestern Pasco indicate maximum local area rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches so far today with a few locally higher totals. Sea breeze appears likely to work deeper into WCFL Wednesday afternoon as easterly flow lessens a bit, shifting the axis of highest rainfall totals east of I-75 across WCFL, extending southward into SWFL including the I-75 corridor for highest rain chances and potential amounts, again up to 2-3 inches in areas with heaviest downpours, but generally less than an inch for most otherwise.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

High pressure remains well off the southeast U.S. coast with the somewhat breezy easterly flow across the region. This should once again lead to the highest rain chances near the west coast later this afternoon and evening where the sea breeze will be pinned. Any convection will move out into the gulf later this evening and dissipate with fair dry weather overnight into early Wednesday morning.

For Wednesday and Thursday the easterly flow does diminish some which should allow the west coast sea breeze to move inland, especially from around the Tampa Bay area northward where it should make it to around or east of I-75. At the same time an upper level low will be lingering off the Florida east coast lowering heights some and with enough moisture in place, precipitable water 1.4 to 1.6 inches, we'll see more scattered convection each afternoon and evening with highest chances from inland west central Florida into southwest Florida.

Late in the week into early next week, upper level ridging will build over the peninsula while the surface high holds off the southeast U.S. coast. This will keep the low level east to southeast flow across the region and with enough moisture we'll continue to see scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Evening convection continues to push offshore but will linger near TPA/PIE for the initial or two of the 00Z cycle. Diminished easterly winds overnight then increasing Wednesday late morning and turning onshore at coastal terminals in the afternoon with the sea breeze, which looks to advance further inland across WCFL, keeping TPA/PIE/SRQ convective chances lower with PROB30 groups, and TEMPO groups for remaining terminals with higher confidence of convective impacts late afternoon and evening.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

The easterly flow will continue as high pressure remains off the southeast U.S. coast. The main hazard will continue to be afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms that move west off land. Some of this convection could cause locally strong gusty winds and hazardous seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Plenty of low level moisture will hold over the are for the next several days keeping relative humidity values above critical levels. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 91 75 92 / 30 30 20 20 FMY 74 93 74 94 / 20 70 50 40 GIF 72 92 72 92 / 10 50 30 30 SRQ 73 92 74 92 / 40 30 30 20 BKV 68 93 70 94 / 20 20 20 20 SPG 75 93 76 93 / 40 20 20 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.