textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Scattered to numerous shower and storm coverage through the weekend, becoming numerous to widespread most of next week as a frontal boundary stalls over the area.

- Increased winds and seas over the eastern Gulf waters during the overnight hours. Small Craft should Exercise Caution.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The southerly flow we have seen over the last couple of days will continue. This flow has helped to bring tropical moisture over the state with the PW on this morning sounding at 2.34. To put this in perceptive of how moist it is for this time of year. The morning sounding actually set the record for the 12z launch on Oct 2nd which was 2.30. This will bring scattered showers and storms into the forecast through the afternoon and evening hours. Models are keeping this trend in place through the weekend.

As we head into early next week a cold front will stall across north Florida. This amazingly will increase our PWs even more. If models are right we could be approaching 2.5 PW early next week. This will lead to cloudy skies and widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms. This front looks to go no where through Wednesday which will keep the cloudy and wet conditions in place. Current forecast is keeping rainfall totals between 1-3 inches from Monday to Wednesday. However, reasonable worse case scenario (10% chance) is showing totals as high as 4 to 8 inches so the forecast will have to be monitored closely.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Our summertime convective pattern is back which will result in afternoon and evening storms for most sites. Highest chances will be in West Central Florida where we could see lingering showers until around midnight. Winds will remain out of the east today with VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Winds will continue to be out of the south and southeast through the weekend. We will also continue to see the nightly surges where winds increase to 15 to 20 knots before calming down to around 10 knots each afternoon. The southerly winds will continue to bring a lot of moisture up from the caribbean resulting in scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf. Shower chances will remain for early next week however we should stop seeing the nightly surge of winds keeping them around 10 to 15 knots through Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Deeper layer moisture across the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the middle part of the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 76 87 76 / 70 60 50 40 FMY 89 76 89 76 / 60 20 60 20 GIF 90 75 90 74 / 70 30 50 30 SRQ 90 75 88 74 / 70 60 60 40 BKV 91 73 90 72 / 70 50 40 30 SPG 88 76 87 76 / 70 60 50 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.