textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record high temperatures with high heat index values Friday.

- A few strong storms possible on Friday.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 754 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A number of record high temperatures were set today across west central Florida, and the heat will continue on Friday. Isolated strong storms this evening will gradually dissipate before midnight. Skies will become mostly clear overnight with very warm muggy conditions across the region.

Hot temperatures will occur again on Friday with southeast boundary layer flow developing. The combination of enhanced convergence along the west coast sea breeze boundary, strong surface heating, and a pocket of cold mid level air advecting over the region associated with a TUTT will enhance the risk for strong/severe thunderstorms across west central and southwest Florida mainly late in the day over the coastal counties.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The continued advancement of the Saharan Air Layer into Florida will keep the peninsula dry and hot today. Heat advisories are in effect for our region, with heat index values of up to 110 expected in some areas through this afternoon. There will be little to no relief for this heat, as the SAL will keep moisture relatively low and precipitation chances slim, although an isolated shower or storm is still possible. The heat associated with this dry spell will reach near-record levels.

As the Saharan dust moves out temporarily tomorrow and into Saturday, we can expect to see a slight return to our normal summer pattern. Tomorrow afternoon, slightly higher PoPs will reach into SWFL, bringing some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms that do develop a chance of strong, damaging winds. SPC has placed a large area of the CWA in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe storms. Saturday, higher PoPs and scattered thunderstorms return to much of our area, primarily south of the I-4 corridor.

Beginning Sunday and into next week, a trough will set over northern Florida, which will keep the highest levels of moisture and precipitation north of the I-4 corridor. Areas south of I-4 will see continued heat index values exceeding 100, as cloud cover and precipitation may be limited.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 754 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few thunderstorms persist over southwest Florida moving away from RSW/FMY. The storms are expected to dissipate before midnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals tonight with skies becoming mostly clear. Daytime heating on Friday will create SCT030-040 by early afternoon. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop mid/late afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs vcnty all terminals. A few storms may be strong with damaging wind gusts and possibly small hail.

MARINE

Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Mostly pleasant marine conditions continue today and tomorrow. Shower and storms chances increase slightly tomorrow especially over SWFL. Winds and seas likely to increase in the vicinity of any storms developing. Winds remain light through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The Saharan dust over the area will continue to keep the mid levels dry today, which will limit shower activity. However RH values remain above critical areawide. Shower and storm activity likely to increase tomorrow and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 96 80 94 / 10 40 30 50 FMY 78 96 77 95 / 10 70 30 60 GIF 76 96 76 96 / 10 20 20 70 SRQ 79 95 78 94 / 10 40 20 50 BKV 75 98 75 96 / 10 30 20 50 SPG 81 95 80 94 / 10 40 20 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.