textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue into next week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day mainly over the interior and southwest Florida.

UPDATE

Issued at 857 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Thunderstorms continue across the interior this evening with some lingering rain from earlier convection across the southern half of the area. These storms will gradually dissipate over the next couple of hours through around midnight. Winds become light and turn back to the SE overnight as skies clear. Sunday should see similar conditions to today with the highest rain chances in place across the interior and SW FL in the afternoon and evening. No major changes to the forecast update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Ridging surface and aloft persist over the area with another round of sea breeze convection this afternoon and evening focusing over areas from SWFL through W FL along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions. Highest chances anticipated from around the I-4 corridor southward and along and east of the I-75 corridor. Morning sounding sampled near-average PWAT of 1.85 inches along with S/SE winds below 5 knots in the Sfc-3/6km layers, indicating likely slow storm motions but any flooding/ponding threat likely limited to the heaviest localized downpours given the lack of deeper moisture. Weak shear and near-average 500 mb temps around 7 deg C should limit severe threat although a strong wind gust and small hail remain possible with the strongest convection. Highs should reach the upper 80s/lower 90s coastal and lower/mid 90s inland before being tempered by afternoon convection.

CONUS pattern aloft amplifies notably through early next with a deep W U.S. trough/strong E U.S. ridge setup taking shape, while the surface ridge shifts south across the area as a weak frontal boundary sinks south across the E Seaboard in response to downstream troughing aloft over the W Atlantic and stalls over the Srn E Seaboard/N Gulf coast. While PWATs don't appreciably change over the area, boundary layer flow gradually shifts to W/NW on Monday and gradually veers to E/NE through Wednesday, allowing highest rain chances to shift to northern and central areas on Mon-Tue before shifting back to central and southern areas on Wednesday. The weak/remnant boundary north of the area early next week may pose a low risk of tropical development, with NHC currently highlighting the area off the SE U.S. coast with a 20% development chance over the next 7 days.

Deep layer E to E/SE flow settles in over the latter half of next week with typical scattered to numerous afternoon and evening convective coverage over W FL, highest chances central and south. Afternoon highs continue to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s, with max heat indices in the lower/mid 100s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 857 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Northern terminals are clear of convection for the rest of the evening, but lingering rain with occasional thunder are still in place from SRQ south and including LAL. These should clear by 02Z, with winds becoming light and skies clearing. Sea breeze kicks back in around 17-19Z with storm chances generally 18-24Z.

MARINE

Issued at 857 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A few showers have pushed offshore of the SW FL coast, otherwise pleasant boating conditions will continue through the weekend, with the sea breeze taking over in the afternoon and some low chances of the afternoon and evening sea breeze convection pushing offshore and causing locally high winds and seas. No changes for the evening update. Rest of the forecast is on track.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 94 80 93 / 20 40 10 60 FMY 77 95 78 96 / 50 50 20 20 GIF 76 95 76 96 / 40 50 20 70 SRQ 78 94 79 94 / 30 40 20 50 BKV 74 96 75 96 / 10 30 10 50 SPG 80 94 81 94 / 20 30 10 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.