textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 803 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Rain coverage will be limited today, then chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms increase Thursday through the weekend.

- Afternoon temperatures will top out in the mid 90s each afternoon through the rest of the week, with heat index values expected to reach up to 100-110.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Currently at the surface, lingering overnight showers will continue to clear out of the Nature Coast through around sunrise while the persistent sub-tropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic across southern Florida. This ridge will keep south and southwest low level flow in place through the rest of the week. Despite this south/southwest flow, rain chances are forecast to be very limited by mid-June standards as a pocket of drier air lifts northeast into the area. A few isolated showers or storms will still be possible this afternoon, mainly over the interior, but most of the forecast area is expected to remain rain free today. Deep tropical moisture lifts northeast into the area through the rest of the week, allowing for isolated to numerous showers and storms Thursday and Friday, with the highest rain chances over the interior during the afternoon and early evening hours. Of note, a slightly tighter pressure gradient will produce breezy onshore winds on Thursday, increasing the risk of rip currents at area beaches.

Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will be warm, with highs forecast to top out in the mid 90s over the interior each afternoon through at least Friday. These temperatures combined with surface dew points in the mid to upper 70s will cause heat index values to approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria in a few locations, mainly on Thursday and Friday afternoons.

Moisture will continue to increase Saturday and Sunday as the flow pattern returns back to westerly. Afternoon storm coverage will become more numerous, but under the westerly flow pattern, the highest rain chances will continue to be found over the interior. Monday and Tuesday, drier air will work back into the area as the surface ridge drifts back north. As a result, afternoon rain coverage is forecast to drop back into the isolated to scattered range each day.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 803 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions with west to southwest throughout the period.

MARINE

Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

High pressure will generally hold south of the waters through the week, with southwest and south wind continuing and becoming more westerly during the weekend. Wind speeds will hold around 15 knots or less today, increasing to around 15 to 20 knots on Thursday, likely requiring Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. Wind speeds are forecast to subside Thursday night to less than 15 knots and hold through the weekend, although daily thunderstorms could produce locally higher winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Somewhat drier air filling into the area today will keep rain chances minimal and allow relative humidity percentages to drop into the low 40 percent over parts of the interior this afternoon. Moisture increases on Thursday, with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected in the afternoon, mainly over the interior.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 82 92 82 / 10 10 20 0 FMY 94 80 95 80 / 10 10 20 10 GIF 96 77 96 78 / 20 10 50 10 SRQ 93 81 93 81 / 10 10 20 10 BKV 95 78 95 78 / 10 10 30 10 SPG 92 82 93 82 / 10 10 20 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.