textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly in the afternoon to early evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Persistent pattern will be relatively locked in for the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula through the week with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will produce east to southeast boundary layer flow across the peninsula through the weekend. The west coast sea breeze boundary will develop each day with the southeast flow holding the boundary over the coastal counties. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon along the boundary with the greatest areal coverage from the Tampa Bay area and south. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH and small hail.

An U/L low east of the Bahamas will drift northwest to just off the east coast of Florida. This will in effect create lower heights over west central and southwest Florida which will aid in increasing convective instability for the next several days. A strong U/L ridge will build over the forecast area during the weekend increasing large scale subsidence over the region. Although afternoon scattered showers/storms are still expected to develop along the west coast sea breeze boundary, the increased subsidence will decrease overall coverage of storms.

Offshore flow will aid in continuing above normal daily temperatures across west central and southwest Florida with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. The increased subsidence over the weekend will allow temperatures to climb even a few degrees higher.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the night under mostly clear skies. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop during the mid/late afternoon hours mainly over the coastal counties with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs which may impact TPA/PIE/PGD/RSW/FMY for a few hours. Wind gusts to 50 MPH and small hail will also be possible with a few stronger storms.

MARINE

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each day that will push locally offshore during the afternoon/evening hours creating locally strong winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 74 91 76 / 60 30 40 10 FMY 92 74 92 73 / 60 20 60 20 GIF 91 72 91 72 / 20 0 30 10 SRQ 93 72 91 74 / 70 30 40 20 BKV 94 69 93 70 / 40 10 30 10 SPG 94 75 93 76 / 60 40 30 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.