textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier air aloft will limit thunderstorm chances and rain totals each day this week.

- Temperatures will run slightly above normal, with afternoon max temperatures in the mid 90s over the interior and around the low 90s near the coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

In the upper levels, broad high pressure centered over northern Florida will hold in place today as a TUTT moves west through the Straits of Florida. Meanwhile at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is sitting just east of Florida, keeping southeast flow in place across the forecast area today. Broad subsidence from the ridging aloft will begin to dry out the atmospheric column today, resulting in lower rain coverage across the forecast area than has been observed over the last week or so, with some parts of central Florida likely to remain rain free today.

Tuesday through the rest of the work week, the surface ridge will shift west into the Florida Peninsula while the upper level ridge continues to hold over the area. This stacked ridging will continue to support dry air aloft, while also resulting in slightly warmer surface temperatures. The driest conditions are forecast on Tuesday, when the National Blend of Models is forecasting PoPs of around 10 percent or less across the area, then moisture only slightly increases from there with generally 10-40 percent rain chances each afternoon through the rest of the work week. Unfortunately, this looks to reverse the recent trend of beneficial rain easing drought conditions over the last week or so, with 5-day QPFs through the work week forecast to only be around a half inch or less. Moisture and rain chances will increase slightly on Saturday, before drier air is set to return by Sunday.

Apart from the lack of rain, the main concern through the next week will be slightly above normal temperatures, with afternoon maximums topping out each day in the mid 90s over the interior and in the low 90s closer to the coast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will develop over southwest Florida this afternoon around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD, potentially causing gusty winds and reduced flight categories as storms pass over terminals. Farther north, rain chances are too low to mention storms in the TAFs for Tampa Bay area terminals, but an isolated storm or two cannot be completely ruled out during the afternoon and early evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

High pressure east of the Florida Peninsula this morning will shift west into the eastern Gulf through the rest of the week. Southeast and east flow today and Tuesday will turn onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze, then light and somewhat variable flow will fill in during the second half of the week. Locally higher winds and rough seas will be possible in isolated to scattered storms this afternoon, then drier air will limit rain chances through the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

High pressure centered east of Florida this morning will settle into the state today and Tuesday, bringing in drier conditions aloft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon, then storm coverage is forecast to be even more limited on Tuesday with rain chances of only around 20 percent or less. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 77 93 78 / 10 0 10 0 FMY 94 76 94 78 / 30 20 10 10 GIF 95 76 95 77 / 10 10 10 10 SRQ 93 76 94 77 / 10 0 10 0 BKV 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 10 0 SPG 92 78 93 79 / 10 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.