textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory today from 11 AM to 7 PM for all of west central and southwest Florida. Hot and humid conditions will continue through the week. - Below normal rain chances and coverage continue today, then moisture increases from north to south with rain chances back closer to normal by midweek.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected today with dry air over the region while light morning winds seabreeze aft 14Z.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Ridging remains in place across the region this morning, with U/L ridging extending across the Deep South and surface ridging across the peninsula. Subsidence aloft with the U/L ridge coupled with drier air in association with lingering SAL across much of the area, particularly south of I-4, will lead to another day of well below normal rain chances for mid August across most of the CWA. Only northern Nature Coast areas across parts of Levy, Citrus and Sumter counties where analyzed PWATs of 1.75-2 inches remain have 20% or higher PoPs. Recent GOES derived TPW product indicates PWATs across areas south of I-4 generally 1.5-1.75 inches, with SWFL areas toward the lower-end values, and earlier ACARS soundings from the vicinity of KRSW indicated values below 1.5 inches. The 17/00Z TBW sounding sampled a PWAT of just over 2 inches, while regional soundings further south out of KEY and MFL sampled PWATs of 1.28 and 1.02 inches, respectively, indicating drier air across S FL and into the southern part of the CWA. Additionally, notable low to mid level drying and signs of a subsidence inversion around 850 mb was evident in association with the SAL present across the area, and GOES derived soundings indicated similar profiles across much of the southern CWA. A more subtle inversion and dry layer was noted in the TBW sounding. Given the relatively drier air over SWFL, more tempered heat advisory potential will exist south today as atmospheric mixing will allow dew points to fall a bit lower in the afternoon compared to areas northward, however continuing heat risk and related hazardous conditions warrant another area wide Heat Advisory today from 11 AM to 7 PM, as high temps in the mid to upper 90s are likely away from the coast, with heat indices again likely to reach and exceed 108 degrees.

U/L ridging gradually breaks down over the E U.S. and shifts west over the next few days, with the surface ridge axis shifting south of area in response to a frontal boundary sinking into the SE U.S. Onshore boundary layer flow sets up today and continues through the remainder of the week while moisture gradually increases from north to south, particularly by mid week and beyond. Rain chances increase in response, mainly across north and central areas on Tuesday, then expand to area wide coverage on Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Shower and storm timing will favor coastal areas overnight through early morning before spreading inland late morning through the afternoon while increasing in areal coverage. Cloud cover and shower/storm coverage will favor a slight downtick in afternoon highs, around 90 along the immediate coast and lower/mid 90s further inland. Humid and muggy conditions will persist along with marginal heat advisory conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Onshore flow sets up across the waters this week as high pressure ridge holds south of the waters. Isolated showers and storms are possible today across far northern waters, then moisture increases with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected for the rest of the week, most likely during the late night and morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

High pressure across the area will favor continued above normal temperatures for the next several days. Rain chances gradually increase into mid week with activity favoring coastal areas during the morning before spreading to interior areas in the afternoon. Minimal fire weather hazards expected as minimum relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 81 93 82 / 0 0 30 30 FMY 97 77 95 79 / 0 0 10 10 GIF 98 78 97 79 / 10 10 50 10 SRQ 93 79 93 80 / 0 0 20 20 BKV 95 77 93 78 / 10 10 50 30 SPG 93 82 93 83 / 0 0 20 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.