textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Light showers and a stray storm today over SW Florida.
- Warming trend the remainder of the week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026
A stationary boundary stretches across the Keys while a weak upper- level disturbance is located to the west of the Florida peninsula. The weather over the next few days will be benign with sporadic air mass showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday afternoon.
On Wednesday weak ridging will settled in place over the peninsula decreasing convection and causing temperatures to increase several degrees above typical values. With highs in the low 90s near the coast and the mid 90s farther inland. Thankfully, this ridge will be short lived as another weak front will stall across central Florida by the end of the week. With the front afternoon rain chances will increase with afternoon PoPs around 30 to 50%.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026
A cumulus cloud deck stretches across the region. Conditions remain VFR but pop-up showers could lead to periods of MVFR conditions, with VCSH in the TAFs for PGD, LAL, FMY, and RSW. Winds decrease after sunset and shift to the northeast as the sea breeze weakens. After sunrise winds will be from the east around 5 to 10 knots.
MARINE
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026
ASCAT analysis shows east winds between 10 to 20 knots. Buoys data shows waves below 4 feet. Winds will slowly shift over the week becoming southernly by Wednesday then southwest later in the week. A weak boundary will increase showers on Friday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026
Minimum RH values will be below 40% in the afternoon but wind levels will be below critical levels. Moisture will begin to return tomorrow but minimum RH values will remain between 30 to 50%. Overnight moisture values recover to near 100%. Rain chances will be spotty with popup showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 69 88 71 90 / 30 0 0 0 FMY 69 90 70 91 / 40 0 0 0 GIF 66 89 69 94 / 40 40 80 0 SRQ 67 88 69 88 / 40 0 0 0 BKV 60 90 63 93 / 30 0 0 0 SPG 73 88 75 89 / 40 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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