textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Late night and early morning patchy fog or low clouds possible the next few days.

- Above normal to near-record high temperatures over inland areas through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances through Sunday for the northern Nature Coast and interior before area wide chances with frontal boundary late Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 A near-stationary frontal boundary lingers over north Florida this afternoon as shortwave energy moves across the northern Gulf coast. This setup will allow for some shower and thunderstorm activity once again today, but mainly limited to Levy County and then east of the area as onshore flow quickly pushes activity eastward. Conditions otherwise will continue to be warm and humid, with some interior locations nearing record highs. A similar setup is forecast for Sunday, with the boundary remaining over north Florida and onshore flow pushing showers and storms over toward the east coast.

For Monday into Tuesday, another shortwave will move over the boundary, with the front shifting southward over the peninsula. This will allow for higher rain chances, especially over the Nature Coast earlier in the day, shifting eastward with onshore flow once again. High pressure will then build over the region for mid to late week, with warmer and drier conditions expected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. There is a chance for low clouds tonight after around 06Z or so, and mainly for KTPA, KPIE, and KSRQ, but confidence is not high enough to explicitly include in the TAFs.

MARINE

Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 No headlines are expected through Monday with winds mostly from the south/southwest. A frontal boundary will drop southward into the region on Monday, with increasing rain chances, then high pressure builds in for the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 No Red Flag concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 90 77 89 / 10 0 0 20 FMY 75 94 76 93 / 10 10 0 10 GIF 74 93 74 92 / 10 30 10 30 SRQ 74 90 75 89 / 10 0 0 10 BKV 69 92 70 90 / 10 10 0 30 SPG 77 90 78 90 / 10 0 0 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.