textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight decrease in winds with a few showers possible, mainly inland and over southwest Florida.

- Showers likely with a few thunderstorms possible late Sunday and into Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 U/L split flow pattern continues along the west coast of the U.S. with a mean overall U/L trough across the western U.S., and weak downstream ridging over the Gulf and Florida. The U/L pattern will become more in-phase out west over the weekend with a strong U/L disturbance digging near the four corners area, which will amplify the overall pattern. Downstream, a weak southern stream disturbance will push across the Mississippi River valley Saturday/Saturday night, and will then move slowly across the Florida peninsula late Sunday and Monday. A more progressive U/L pattern will take shape next week with the L/W trough out west pushing east over the central U.S., and then to the eastern seaboard by Thursday.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the region today and Saturday with a relatively tight pressure gradient in place...which will allow gusty northeast winds to develop during the morning hours each day. A chance of light showers will develop during the afternoon hours, mainly across the interior and southwest Florida, due to the continued convergent northeast flow off the Atlantic which will advect scattered showers onshore the east central/southeast Florida coast which will push inland. Any precipitation will remain light.

Over the weekend, the surface high will hold over the region as the U/L disturbance moves over the area. The U/L energy will ride over an old stationary boundary across the Florida Straits/eastern Gulf with weak cyclogenesis possible along the boundary. Large scale lift will be enhanced over the forecast area which will generate numerous showers and a few thunderstorms across west central and southwest Florida on Sunday. The U/L disturbance will exit east of the peninsula on Monday with shower/thunderstorm activity ending from west to east Monday afternoon. Weak surface high pressure will build over the forecast area in the wake of the U/L disturbance early next week with clearing skies. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normals each day. Relatively muggy conditions will persist with dew points generally in the 60s to around 70.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Areas of IFR CIGs 005-008 the remainder of the night/early morning hours vcnty TPA/PIE/LAL, which may advect down to SRQ in the next couple of hours. LCL MVFR/IFR CIGs may develop over southwest Florida a few hours before sunrise. Cloud bases will lift around mid morning Friday with SCT LCL BKN 040-050 the remainder of the day. Slight chance of a light shower at PGD/FMY/RSW mainly during the afternoon hours, however CIGs are expected to remain VFR. Gusty northeast winds will persist at all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Winds are expected to remain elevated at cautionary levels across portions of the waters through early next week. An U/L disturbance will push across the waters Sunday and Sunday night with showers and scattered thunderstorms. High pressure will build back over the waters early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 86 72 85 72 / 10 0 20 30 FMY 88 73 86 73 / 20 10 40 40 GIF 87 72 85 72 / 10 10 40 20 SRQ 87 72 85 72 / 10 0 30 40 BKV 87 70 86 71 / 10 0 30 30 SPG 85 72 83 73 / 10 0 20 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.