textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 831 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon and evening. Rain coverage will become more widespread Monday through the rest of the week, with higher rainfall totals

- Marine winds over the northeastern Gulf will increase late Tuesday through the rest of the week, creating hazardous boating conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a large swath of deep moisture over the area associated with a broad trough over the western Gulf and a slow moving front stretching from the western Gulf Coast northeast through the Carolinas and into the Atlantic. For today, despite a very moist atmospheric column holding over the forecast area, weak subsidence and a limited sea breeze should keep rain chances fairly subdued, with only scattered storms forecast to develop, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Monday, the front is forecast to be gradually pushing south and approaching the area, with increasing moisture ahead of the front resulting in higher storm chances and rain totals, especially over the Nature Coast counties. The front will continue to push into the area on Tuesday, with elevated rain totals expected to expand south through much of the area. The front will then stall out over central Florida Wednesday through Friday, before retreating back north by Saturday. This stalled boundary will lead to a cloudy and rainy week, with some areas having the potential to see large rain totals multiple days in a row, leading to areas of areal or river flooding.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 831 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

We will see less coverage of shower and storms today. The best chances to see storms will be in SW Florida and our inland areas. Outside of thunderstorms expect VFR conditions with winds generally at or below 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

High pressure to the northeast of the waters and a broad surface trough over the western Gulf will keep generally southeast to south winds in place through early Tuesday. Winds over the northern waters will increase and turn to northeasterly to easterly late Tuesday through the rest of the week as a front pushes south into the area then stalls out over the central waters, with periods of Cautionary or Advisory conditions expected. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage will increase Monday as moisture builds ahead of the front, with widespread storms expected each day through the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A surface trough over the western Gulf will keep deep moisture and southeast to south winds in place across west central and southwest Florida today and Monday. Scattered showers and storms will develop again today, then rain coverage will increase on Monday ahead of an approaching front. High humidity will prevent any Red Flag concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 76 86 76 / 30 40 60 60 FMY 92 76 90 75 / 50 40 40 30 GIF 92 75 90 74 / 50 50 60 50 SRQ 90 75 88 75 / 30 30 50 50 BKV 92 73 88 72 / 40 40 70 70 SPG 89 77 87 76 / 30 30 60 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.