textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Cooler and drier through Thursday then warming trend into the weekend.
- Next round of unsettled conditions over the weekend.
- Improving conditions early next week along with cooler temps.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1252 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Broad troughing aloft continues across much of the country this afternoon with ridging suppressed south of the state. At the surface, high pressure has build into the southeast with a frontal boundary draped across south Florida. This boundary will sink southward through the rest of the day, eventually stalling near the Florida Straits. Tomorrow will be our coolest morning with this latest front, but lows will only be in the mid 40s north to around 60 south. Conditions then moderate through the rest of the work week as the surface high shifts eastward.
For the weekend, a series of shortwaves will move along the northern Gulf coast while the frontal boundary to our south lifts back northward. This setup will allow for moisture to increase and bring rain chances back mainly for the northern half of the forecast area on Saturday, followed by rain chances for the whole area on Sunday into early Monday. This is followed by a push of cooler and drier air for early next week as high pressure builds back over the southeast.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Some MVFR cigs have lingered longer than expected at some of the coastal sites, but still think they will lift/scatter out sooner rather than later. Otherwise, VFR is expected.
MARINE
Issued at 1252 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Northeast winds tonight become easterly by tomorrow afternoon, with no headlines expected. Winds then turn southerly Friday into the weekend with benign conditions continuing, though rain chances will increase across the waters for Saturday and Sunday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1252 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 57 80 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 60 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 55 79 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 55 79 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 47 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 60 77 65 79 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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