textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall mainly in urban areas with the higher thunderstorm activity each day through much of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Convection is winding down with mostly just some stratiform rain across parts of the region at this time. This rain should come to an end by midnight, then will need to watch the Nature Coast south to around the I-4 corridor for some late low clouds and fog like this morning. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail overnight. Wednesday looks like another repeat of today with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection developing and moving west southwest across the area. Current forecst looks ok with no changes needed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 900 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

The areas of rain across the TAF sites this evening will come to an end by midnight. Some late night low clouds and fog will again be possible, especially at LAL and TPA, but not confident of this at this time and have left out of TAFs. More convection expected Wednesday afternoon and evening which could cause some MVFR/occasional IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail. Light east to northeast winds overnight will continue into Wednesday morning then shift to onshore with the sea breeze at all of the TAF sites except LAL. Gusty erratic winds possible in convection.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Much of the same for today and tomorrow with southeasterly flow in place and plenty of moisture with PW this morning around 2.3. This will favor shower and storm chances mainly on the west coast of Florida in the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Thursday an upper level low will stall along the east coast of Florida. This will shift our flow more southerly and help to bring even more moisture over the state. This will result in PW closer to 2.5. The more southerly flow and deeper moisture will bring more widespread showers and storms to the area with a more uniform chance from coastal to inland locations. This trend should be around through Saturday.

By Sunday the upper level low will dissipate as the ridge shifts south. This will bring a more southwesterly flow back into the forecast which should keep the west coast drier as better storms chances will be inland and along the east coast of Florida at least through Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Wind wise we will be seeing much of the same with easterly flow and winds around 5 to 10 knots. The best chance of storms today and tomorrow will mainly be in the evening and early overnight hours as storms push off the coast. Deeper tropical moisture will come in starting on Thursday bring a better chance of storms during the daytime hours through Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Deeper layer moisture remains over the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through next Monday. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 89 76 90 / 30 70 50 80 FMY 76 92 77 92 / 50 70 30 80 GIF 75 92 75 93 / 30 80 40 80 SRQ 75 90 76 91 / 50 70 50 70 BKV 72 90 73 92 / 30 80 50 80 SPG 77 89 77 89 / 40 70 50 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.