textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday.

- Onshore winds expected over the weekend producing scattered showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours and moving eastward during the afternoon/evening.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest through the southeast U.S., across northern Florida and into the central Gulf. This will keep a predominant easterly flow over Florida for one more day. Abundant moisture with PWAT values between 1.8-2.2 inches will support scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and storms once again with the highest coverage over the interior and south of the I-4 corridor. Daytime highs today will top out in the low to mid 90s with heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees.

On Saturday, we are expecting a shift in the wind flow to a more onshore south-southwest flow as the high pressure center shifts southeastward and ridges westward across south Florida and into the central Gulf. This onshore flow combined with continued abundant moisture will support scattered to numerous showers and storms earlier in the day along the eastern Gulf waters and west coast of Florida. These showers and storms will traverse eastward through the day. Similar conditions expected on Sunday with early showers and storms along the west coast traversing eastward through the day. Not a lot of change expected in the weather pattern through the middle of next week.

By Wednesday, high pressure remains over south Florida and a south- southwest onshore shore will prevail, but some slightly drier air with PWAT values around 1.7-2.0 inches will move over the region. This is still abundant moisture for daily showers and storms, but may slightly decrease chances down to around 30-50 percent from Wednesday through the end of next week. Near seasonal temps in the low to mid 90s continue with heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees each afternoon. Overnight lows remain warm and muggy in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Showers and storms are already firing up along the west coast and are impacting some of the terminals. Currently have TEMPO TSRA with MVFR CIGs and gusty winds through 21Z for TPA/PIE/SRQ and through 22Z for LAL/PGD/RSW/FMY. The potential for showers and storms likely to continue through 01Z, then clearing overnight. Another round of showers and storms expected tomorrow morning after 14Z with SW onshore wind flow. Will cover this with PROB30 at all terminals between between 14-17Z on Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Pleasant boating conditions expected through the weekend and into next week with winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. The only marine impact expected will be some scattered showers and storms, which may produce some gusty erratic winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than 10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 91 80 91 / 10 60 40 50 FMY 78 92 77 93 / 30 50 40 70 GIF 76 94 76 93 / 30 80 30 80 SRQ 79 92 79 92 / 30 60 50 50 BKV 74 94 74 93 / 10 60 30 40 SPG 80 91 80 91 / 20 60 40 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.