textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Near-Record temperatures continue through the weekend.
- Gusty winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf Waters early next week.
- Critical RH values and gusty winds will produce hazardous fire conditions on Monday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026 High pressure aloft remains centered over the Gulf this afternoon while the surface ridge axis extends across the central part of Florida. This pattern will keep warm and dry conditions across the region through Sunday, then we get a weak frontal boundary late Sunday into Monday. This front will bring a slight chance for showers on Monday afternoon, mainly for interior locations south of I-4, but forecast rainfall amounts remain low. Temperatures return a little closer to normal behind the boundary, along with lower humidity, and generally hold there through the week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
MARINE
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026 No headlines are expected through the weekend as high pressure holds over the region. A weak cold front will move through late Sunday into Monday, with increasing winds and seas to start the week. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed Sunday night/Monday morning and continuing through mid-week before conditions improve for the end of the week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026 High pressure over the region will keep warm and dry conditions in place through the weekend, with no Red Flag concerns. A weak cold front will move through the area on Monday, with very limited rainfall. Drier air behind this boundary will move into mainly Levy County by Monday afternoon and winds may get close to 15 mph, so will have to watch that area for Red Flag conditions. Drier air extends across the rest of the region Tuesday afternoon, with breezy winds leading to another day of higher fire danger.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 86 67 84 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 71 89 68 87 / 0 0 0 20 GIF 68 90 67 82 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 69 85 67 85 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 61 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 74 86 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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