textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before a cold front brings in milder temperatures Sunday.

- A few showers will be possible over the Nature Coast today and Friday, then much better rain chances across the entire region late Saturday through Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Today and Friday, surface high pressure will ridge from the Atlantic across southern Florida, setting up westerly/southwesterly flow. Under this flow pattern, afternoon high temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s, while the flow coming off the Gulf will keep temperatures in the 80s closer to the coast. A frontal boundary will also stall out north of Florida today, allowing for a few showers over the Nature Coast this afternoon and again Friday, although most of the area will stay rain free until Saturday.

During the weekend, a couple of shortwaves will rotate through the southeastern US, dragging the frontal boundary through the Florida Peninsula. Moisture will pool ahead of the front, with PWAT values forecast to approach 2 inches, allowing for numerous showers and storms to spread south through the forecast area Saturday and Saturday night, then gradually clear out from north to south by Sunday evening as drier air fills in behind the front. QPFs for the entire event have been trending lower through the last couple of forecast cycles, but 5 day QPFs are still in the 0.75-1.50 inches, which should bring a small amount of relief from the ongoing drought. Temperatures will also briefly drop to slightly below normal behind the front, with highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Surface high pressure builds in from the north early next week as the frontal boundary stalls out over southern Florida and the Straits of Florida. This will allow temperatures to quickly warm back up to near to slightly above normal during the first half of the week, with lingering moisture north of the frontal boundary allowing for isolated showers each day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours under westerly winds.

MARINE

Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

High pressure will continue to ridge into the south eastern Gulf through early Saturday, setting up westerly/southwesterly flow. Winds will increase on Saturday as a cold front approaches from the north, producing a period of advisory/cautionary level winds and seas from Saturday morning through Sunday night as the front pushes through the waters. The front will also bring increased moisture, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday through Sunday night, causing locally higher winds. High pressure fills back in from the north behind the front early next week, bringing drier conditions and lower winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A dry air mass will hold in place through Friday, with relative humidity percentages dropping to near critically low levels each afternoon, mainly over the interior. Despite the dry air, wind speeds will not be high enough to produce widespread Red Flag conditions. High dispersion indices will be possible each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 86 73 88 73 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 88 69 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 92 69 93 69 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 85 71 85 70 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 88 66 90 65 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 86 76 87 76 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.