textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1025 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Continued dry air advection into the region today. - Gradual return to more typical summertime pattern over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1025 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A few showers are present over the water across SWFL this morning. This activity is being sponsored by a stationary boundary stretching south of the peninsula. Most of the showers/storms are expected to develop across the southern portions of the state during the late afternoon and evening. Ample cloud coverage is anticipated, but highs will still climb up into the mid to upper 80s.

No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Another day of pleasant temps and humidity under partly to mostly cloudy skies and occasionally breezy conditions today as high pressure ridging down the E Seaboard and into the state in the wake of a frontal boundary over S FL and the FL Straits continues the advection of drier air into the local area. N/NE boundary layer flow into the peninsula has enabled PW values below an inch to advect southward into parts of C FL, with much of SWFL around 1.5 inches or less. Deeper moisture remains over areas near Ft Myers, with associated 20-40% PoPs for afternoon/early evening showers and a few storms limited to those areas. Afternoon highs locally will again run a few degrees below normal today, in the mid to upper 80s.

A gradual warming trend ensues beginning on Friday along with moisture gradually recovering through the weekend, with afternoon highs warming into the lower/mid 90s and scattered shower/storm chances expanding from SWFL into WCFL by early next week. A mid/upper trough stalling off the E Coast during the first half of next week could favor a setup to drive another cold front down the E Seaboard and potentially into the local area around mid week, however a signal also exists for moisture advecting northward out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf mid to late week next week... leaving timing and uncertainty details to be further resolved for additional forecast refinement over the weekend into next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 805 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail with breezy east to northeasterly winds in place. Chances of showers and isolated storms increase later in the afternoon across SW FL terminals. This could bring temporary MVFR ceilings and vis during this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 71 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 87 72 90 72 / 30 10 10 0 GIF 87 68 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 89 71 92 72 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 89 64 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 89 73 92 75 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.