textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger for the Nature Coast Sunday afternoon and for the entire forecast area Monday afternoon.

- There is a low to medium chance for late night and early morning fog formation tonight, along with sea fog over the coastal waters.

- Hazardous marine conditions and much cooler temperatures return on Sunday and will persist into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

A line of showers is starting to push through the Nature Coast early this morning. This line of showers is ahead of a very strong cold front that will push through the state this morning and afternoon. We will see some scattered showers as the front pushes through however totals will generally stay below half an inch meaning it will sadly not help our current drought conditions. This front will bring much colder air back into the forecast. High temperatures today will be around noon before they start to drop through the afternoon and evening. Winds will also be picking up with gust up to 25 mph through the day.

By Monday morning we will be waking up from the mid 30's to low 40's. Once we factor in the winds that will be around 10 to 15 mph. We can expect feel like temperatures from the upper 20's to mid 30's. Don't expect much of a warm up Monday afternoon as highs will stay in the 50's. Our coldest morning will be on Tuesday as we could see freezing temperatures as far south as inland Charlotte county. We will see one more morning in the 30's on Wednesday before high pressure pushes off into the Atlantic that will result in a warming trend. By Thursday afternoon we will see highs back in the 80's with mid 80's back by next Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

A cold front will bring scattered showers to our northern sites this morning before shifting to the south in the afternoon. We will also see some MVFR and IFR CIGS associated with the front as it pushes through. Winds will shift to the northwest before the front with gusts up to 25 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

A strong cold front will push through this morning shifting winds to the northwest and increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30 knots by the afternoon. This gusty winds will continue through the day on Monday before slowly starting to drop Monday night. By Tuesday afternoon winds will be down to 10 to 15 knots. Winds will shift southerly for Wednesday and Thursday with speeds from 5 to 10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

A strong cold front will push through during the morning and afternoon today. We will see some scattered showers associated with it however totals will not be high enough to help with the current drought. Our bigger concern over the next two days will be the drier air with breezy conditions. A red flag warning is in effect this afternoon along the Nature Coast as RHs drop below critical levels with wind speeds around 15 to 20 mph. We will see a more widespread Red Flag risk on Monday as most of the area will see RHs below critical level with the winds staying high. Critical RHs will remain in place for Tuesday through Thursday however winds will calm down.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 73 44 55 37 / 60 0 0 0 FMY 79 43 62 36 / 60 0 0 0 GIF 77 39 57 33 / 60 0 0 0 SRQ 75 46 57 38 / 70 0 0 0 BKV 74 34 55 27 / 60 0 0 0 SPG 74 49 57 43 / 60 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Levy-Sumter.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Tuesday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.