textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue through the weekend and into early next week.

- Becoming breezy areawide with a slight chance of showers interior and southwest Florida over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Latest guidance and forecasts on track with upper longwave trough over the W Atlantic into the N Carib becoming a brief cut-off low N of the Bahamas Sunday. Tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building into the Deep South and old frontal boundary in S of the area to produce gusty winds Sunday into Monday with the strongest winds along the coast and over the coastal waters. Showers and a few storms are expected to develop over the Gulfstream and SE FL that generally drift and weaken into our FL interior and SW FL zones before dissipating thru Sunday.

The upper low is expected to very slowly lift northeast by the middle of next week. An U/L ridge will build back over the Florida peninsula in its wake.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Mostly clear skies at terminals and VFR conditions areawide tonight and SUN with gusty NNE winds.

MARINE

Strong winds and building large choppy seas will keep hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters through the weekend and into early next week. The pressure gradient tightens further with wind gusts strengthening to near gale force tonight through Monday evening small craft operators should remain in port until conditions improve later next week. The offshore wind flow will also cause tides to run below astronomical levels as well.

FIRE WEATHER

Gusty NE winds and dry conditions will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Low level moisture will slowly increase with minimum RH above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 82 68 84 69 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 84 67 86 70 / 0 0 30 0 GIF 83 67 85 68 / 0 10 30 0 SRQ 82 67 85 69 / 0 0 10 0 BKV 82 65 84 66 / 0 10 10 0 SPG 81 68 83 70 / 0 0 10 0