textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will slowly increase through the week, with high temperatures running about 5-10 degrees above normal by the end of the week.

- Some late night and early morning fog will return each day during the second half of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 725 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Northeast flow will persist tonight bringing some low level moisture across the peninsula leading to partly to mostly cloudy skies at times. Not expecting much fog to develop, but could see some local ground fog in spots where winds become light. On Tuesday the flow will shift to more easterly direction with the partly to mostly cloudy skies continuing. Overall the current forecast looks on track with no changes needed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible late tonight into Tuesday morning, especially across the central Florida peninsula TAF sites of TPA, PIE, and LAL. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period. Northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots tonight will become easterly Tuesday morning. A sea breeze will try to develop Tuesday afternoon, but is not expected to move very far inland with winds only expected to shift to west to northwest at SRQ, and possibly PGD and FMY later in the day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Slightly cooler air has begun to filter in following the front that moved through late last night/early this morning. Some much needed rain fell across the area yesterday. However, conditions dry out again through the remainder of the week. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly cooler as well with lows dipping into the upper 40s to mid 50s. The slight cool down does not stick around very long as high pressure builds back and temperatures start to rise by Tuesday. High temperatures will reach near record by the end of the week with inland areas possibly getting into the upper 80s. The only other concern through the week will be development of patchy fog, mostly away from the coast, on Thursday and possibly Friday.

The next change in the warm, dry pattern will arrive over the weekend as a strong upper level trough moves into the southeastern US, dragging along a cold front into FL. This next front will bring a slight increase in rain chances Saturday and Sunday. A more substantial cool down is expected following this front with lows expected to get back into the upper 30s(north) and low/mid 40s(south).

MARINE

Issued at 126 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Winds will continue to diminish tonight into tomorrow morning following a frontal boundary that moved through early this morning. Seas will also continue to come down. Conditions will remain quiet through the remainder of the week before another cold front moves through next weekend. Winds likely reach cautionary, if not advisory levels by the beginning of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Slightly breezy northwest winds along and behind the cold front this morning will subside and turn to northeast and east tonight and Tuesday as high pressure builds in. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 57 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 57 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 56 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 55 80 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 49 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 61 80 64 77 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.