textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through early next week.

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms will develop each day through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over west central and southwest Florida through the period. Light south to southeast boundary layer flow this morning will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the coastal counties during the morning and early afternoon. Boundary layer flow will shift to the southwest this afternoon which will push the west coast sea breeze boundary inland, with increasing areal coverage of storms and highest pops over the interior during the mid/late afternoon...with storms gradually dissipating during the evening hours. With PCPW values in the 2 to 2.25 inch range, locally heavy rain will be possible. Similar set-up on Friday with light south to southeast boundary layer flow becoming onshore during the afternoon, with highest pops again over the interior during the mid/late afternoon hours.

Over the weekend, easterly boundary layer flow will become established which will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties. The east coast sea breeze boundary will push across the peninsula through the day with scattered showers and storms. Thunderstorm activity will be enhanced over the coastal counties late in the day as the east coast sea breeze boundary collides with the west coast sea breeze boundary. A few storms may be strong with damaging wind gusts.

Similar pattern will hold through the middle of next week. The one caveat will be that some drier air aloft may advect over west central and southwest Florida by mid week which could decrease overall areal coverage of showers/storms, and may increase the risk for a few strong storms each day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the night and early morning hours. Scattered showers/storms will develop over the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs vcnty all terminals except LAL. Storms will push inland during the afternoon hours and increase in areal coverage with a better chance for LAL to be impacted with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the forecast period with generally light winds and seas. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 90 77 / 50 20 50 30 FMY 92 76 93 76 / 50 30 60 30 GIF 92 74 93 75 / 60 40 70 40 SRQ 90 76 91 76 / 40 20 50 30 BKV 89 72 90 72 / 50 30 60 30 SPG 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 40 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.