textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms through the week.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Early this afternoon, the low topped showers continue to develop over S FL moving WNWward and expected coverage to increased through the afternoon into the evening hours as the activity moves into coastal areas. Diurnal heating to combine with the Gulf seabreeze pinned at the coast to potentially break the 16k ft cap and tap into colder drier air aloft to produce isolated thunderstorms mainly from I-75 to the coast.

Upper ridging to hold over the region through mid week as the large surface Bermuda high pressure area stretches back to the W/SW across the SE U.S. with easterly flow bringing Atlantic moisture over the FL Peninsula. Expect isolated to scattered afternoon convection along seabreeze boundaries into the evening hours.

Minor pattern fluctuations expected through the week, with continued E-SE low level low and isolated to scattered afternoon and evening shower/storm activity. As LL flow veers SE-S expect temps to warm with increasing humidly to produce well above normal temps into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions continue with increasing SHRA development in the occasionally gusty easterly flow early this afternoon. Expect a broken line of seabreeze SHRA LCL TSRA near the coast into evening for TEMPO MVFR vsby/cigs conditions for most terminals thru 00Z. VFR conditions returning overnight with light E winds.

MARINE

Light to moderate easterly winds continue over the waters through the week as Bermuda high pressure holds north of the area. The afternoon seabreeze is expected to develop along the coast, producing isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers or a few thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Ridging north of the area will maintain occasionally gusty easterly winds through the week, with the afternoon sea breeze mainly at the immediate coast. Moderate winds aloft will produce locally high dispersion values as well. Showers and a few storms possible during the afternoon into evening hours before diminishing by late evening. Low level moisture remains in place to keep min RH values above critical levels. Patchy dense fog is possible mainly in northern areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 86 67 87 / 20 20 0 10 FMY 67 87 66 87 / 40 30 0 10 GIF 66 86 65 86 / 10 30 0 20 SRQ 66 86 66 85 / 40 30 0 10 BKV 60 87 61 87 / 10 20 0 20 SPG 71 86 70 87 / 30 20 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.