textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Thunderstorm coverage will increase today and Saturday, but will remain limited over the Nature Coast counties. Higher rain chances are forecast across the area Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 High pressure sits aloft over the southern U.S. this afternoon while a low spins over east Florida. At the surface, high pressure spins just north of the region, keeping an east/northeast low-level flow in place across the forecast area. With a bit more moisture available today, we should see more storm coverage compared with the last couple of days, with the highest chances still for the southern half of the area. The pattern is similar for Saturday, just with coverage extending farther north. We will also see some colder temperatures aloft (500 mb temps around -9 to -10 deg C) both days, which could lead to a few stronger storms.

For Sunday into next week, moisture will continua to increase, resulting in more numerous storm coverage. Flow will still be easterly, with showers and storms developing over the eastern half of the peninsula and shifting westward through the afternoon and evening.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm activity. Scattered storms continue to move westward across mainly the southwest Florida region, with a few additional storms elsewhere. The best chances through the rest of the afternoon and evening remain over KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW, with lowered vis/cigs possible in any storm (along with higher winds). A similar setup is expected for tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 East/northeast winds will continue over the waters through the next several days, with no headlines expected. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each evening, with locally higher winds and rough seas expected near storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 Moisture will increase through the next few days, bringing higher rain chances. East/northeast winds will continue, with showers and storms moving westward through the day. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, with no Red Flag concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 90 74 88 / 20 60 30 80 FMY 74 89 74 89 / 30 60 50 80 GIF 73 91 73 90 / 10 50 10 80 SRQ 74 90 74 89 / 30 60 30 80 BKV 70 92 71 90 / 10 50 20 80 SPG 76 89 76 88 / 30 60 30 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.