textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Higher humidity along with higher rain and storm chances return remainder of the week and into the weekend.

- Increasing winds and building seas over the eastern Gulf waters on Thursday and Friday. Small Craft should Exercise Caution.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Weak troughing over the area is continuing to keep south-southeast winds over the area, which is helping pump in increasing moisture into west central and southwest Florida. The 00Z TBW sounding is showing this pronounced increase with a PWAT of 1.88 inches. North of Florida, broad surface high pressure is located near West Virginia and ridges southwest through Mississippi. This will bring back a predominant east through southeast wind flow over the Florida peninsula. PWAT values will be up to 1.7 - 2.1 inches across most of west central and southwest Florida. This will equate to scattered showers and isolated storms across the region on Wednesday afternoon.

By Thursday morning, the troughing fills, while the surface high has moved off the Carolina coastline and continues to ridge west- southwestward over Florida and into the eastern Gulf. PWAT values starting on Thursday afternoon will be up to 2+ inches across the Florida peninsula. This pattern will hold through the end of the week and into the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected each afternoon during that time period.

By Sunday afternoon, high pressure east of Florida continues to ridge westward over the area. A little farther to the west, an area of low pressure and frontal boundary develops near the LA/MS coastline. The predominant south-southeast winds that have been over the area will shift more southwesterly on Monday afternoon as that system moves through the area late Monday into Tuesday. Continued high rain chances with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected for the first half of next week as this front becomes stationary over north central Florida.

With the increasing moisture and rain chances through the period, temperatures and humidity will also be on the rise. Overnight lows this morning and Thursday morning will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, then low to mid 70s for the remainder of the forecast period. Near seasonal daytime highs expected with upper 80s to low 90s each day through the end of the week and into the weekend. A slight cool down is expected next Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Outside of storms, VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots prevail through the period. Some showers possible later this morning after 11Z for PGD/FMY/RSW, so will cover this with VCSH for now. Then later this afternoon after 19Z, showers and storms possible, so will cover this with VCTS and PROB30 TSRA between 21-01Z, with some MVFR/occasional IFR conditions for VSBY and CIG restrictions as well as gusty winds.

MARINE

Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Southeast winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas less than 2 feet will continue today. Some showers and storms will be possible in the Gulf this morning and afternoon. High pressure off the Carolina coastline will ridge west-southwest into the eastern Gulf starting Thursday and continuing through Saturday. This will bring an increase in the winds to 15 to 20 knots out of the southeast with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions possible. Seas will also build to around 4 feet. Scattered showers and storms will continue in the forecast for the latter part of the week and into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Moisture and rain chances will increase starting today, with the highest chances over southwest Florida. Rain chances further increase for all of west central and southwest Florida the latter part of the week with scattered to numerous showers and storms possible each afternoon. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than 15 mph. No other fire weather concerns anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 74 89 75 / 40 30 60 30 FMY 88 74 88 75 / 50 40 70 30 GIF 90 72 90 74 / 40 30 50 10 SRQ 88 73 89 74 / 40 30 70 40 BKV 90 68 91 71 / 40 30 60 20 SPG 87 74 88 76 / 40 30 70 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.