textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainy conditions will continue through Thursday.

- Gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue through at least Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

UPDATE

Issued at 849 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Some light scattered showers continue to drift westward across the area this evening as showers continue to move ashore across the east coast of FL and push inland. While coverage has diminished from earlier in the day, can't completely rule out some shower activity lingering overnight particularly inland areas as a breezy northeasterly low-level flow interacts with shortwave energy and a 80 kt subtropical jet streak streaming across the peninsula. Other than lingering light showers overnight, it will be another evening with a solid overcast stratus deck as temperatures fall to the upper 50s into the mid 60s. Other than some minor adjustments to PoPs based on recent hi-res guidance, the ongoing forecast remains in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The stalled out boundary over the state continues to bring us cloudy and windy conditions with some spotty showers. This trend will continue for the rest of today. By tomorrow the boundary will start to dissipate alLowing the sunshine to return. Due to it being a transition day we will see a mix of conditions. Where the thicker clouds linger we will see spotty light showers, however areas that start to see more sunshine could see a more convective pattern with heavier rain and thunderstorms.

By Friday the boundary will be gone allowing for ridging from the north to settle into the area. This will allow for the gusty winds to subside and drier air to start filtering in. Some lingering moisture in South Florida will still allow for an isolated thunderstorm or two in the afternoon and evening. The drier air will make it down to South Florida by Friday night and the state looks to have PW lower then an inch for the weekend and into early next week. This will bring us sunny skies and warming temperatures with highs back in the upper 80's by Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 747 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A mixture of MVFR to low-end VFR CIGs this evening will gradually become MVFR area-wide by late evening and overnight with some spotty SHRA also possible at times. MVFR CIGs will then linger for much of the day on Thursday but CIGs will slowly rise later in the day, which should transition to low-end VFR conditions by the afternoon and evening hours. In addition, breezy NE winds will remain in place through the period with gusts of 25 kts or more at times.

MARINE

Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Stall boundary over the state still bringing us gusty winds with a small craft advisory issued for all water ways through early Friday morning. The front will start to dissipate Thursday night which will allow for winds to come down slightly. However strong ridging to our north will keep winds just below advisory criteria at 15 to 20 knot from Friday through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The stalled boundary that has been giving us cloudy and breezy conditions will start to dissipate slowly on Thursday. Behind it we will see drier air filter into the area through the weekend. RHs will stay just above critical levels but we will be seeing sunny skies and no rain in the forecast for the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 67 82 65 85 / 30 40 0 10 FMY 67 83 67 85 / 40 40 10 10 GIF 65 79 64 82 / 40 50 0 10 SRQ 67 81 64 84 / 40 40 0 10 BKV 61 80 59 84 / 20 40 0 10 SPG 70 83 69 86 / 30 30 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.