textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through early next week.

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms will develop each day through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Current visible satellite imagery indicates an increasing cumulus field across the Florida Peninsula as the seabreeze pushes inland. The best coverage of showers/storms this afternoon and evening will be across inland areas. PW values from this mornings sounding was 2.03 inches. This value is around the 75th percentile of late August climatology. Therefore, expect these showers and storms will produce heavy rainfall resulting in a quick 1 to 2 inches of rain in some locations. Much of the same is forecast on Friday with little change in the low-level flow. Highs today and Friday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with max heat indices around 100.

Low-level flow will take on more of an easterly direction over the weekend. This should keep the seabreeze closer to the coast. Due to this, expect the best coverage of showers and storms will be along the coast over the weekend with drier conditions inland. In this flow regime, temperatures will be a little warmer inland with highs in the mid 90s and heat indices climbing to near 105.

Overall, not much meaningful change to the pattern going into the upcoming work week. Easterly flow persists throughout much of the upcoming week. A few models show a day or so of slightly drier air during the middle of the week but this will brief, if it occurs at all. Once again pops will remain elevated with best chances for showers/storms generally along the coast. Highs will be in the low 90s with heat indices around 100.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR conditions generally across the terminals with scattered showers/storms across the area. These showers/storms are currently located along the coast but will continue to build inland over the next couple of hours. Due to this, went dry with most of the TAFs along the coast after 19z with highest chances for showers/storms later this afternoon and evening near KLAL. Any ongoing showers/storms will come to an end near sunset with VFR conditions forecast overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Light winds and seas are generally forecast. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 90 77 91 / 20 40 20 70 FMY 77 94 77 93 / 20 50 30 80 GIF 74 93 75 94 / 30 50 30 70 SRQ 76 91 76 93 / 20 40 20 70 BKV 72 91 72 93 / 20 60 20 80 SPG 78 89 78 91 / 20 40 20 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.