textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area Wednesday afternoon.

- Cooler conditions coming over the weekend and into next week.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 733 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 A persistent U/L low remains over the eastern Gulf, but just far enough offshore to prevent organized shower/thunderstorm activity from advecting onshore. The vast majority of the scattered showers/thunderstorms that occurred this afternoon across west central and southwest Florida have dissipated. Decreasing cloudiness through the overnight hours, with patchy low clouds developing around sunrise.

On Wednesday, the U/L disturbance is finally expected to lift north and be absorbed into the northern stream flow ahead of an U/L trough which will be approaching the eastern seaboard. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop across west central and southwest Florida in the continued east to southeast boundary layer flow as deep tropical moisture will remain over the forecast area. Temperatures will run several degrees above climatic normals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

The upper level low that helped to produce record rainfall over portions on Highlands, Hardee, and DeSoto counties has now pushed farther away. However, we are still seeing southerly flow resulting in scattered afternoon and evening showers. We are not expecting to see significant QPF with this rainfall. We dry out a little bit on Wednesday but some isolated showers will still be possible.

As we head into Thursday and Friday the low pressure system will be dissipating as drier air starts to filter in. Temperatures will be slightly above average with lows in the upper 60's and highs in the mid 80's.

Saturday looks to be very similiar to our Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the mid 80's. However, by Sunday morning we will see our next cold front push through the area. This front will not bring a lot of shower activity but will big cooler air to start our next work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 733 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 Patchy MVFR CIGs for the next few hours vcnty terminals, but primarily VFR CIGs through midnight with decreasing cloudiness overnight. LCL MVFR CIGs will develop around sunrise 015-020.

MARINE

Issued at 127 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Winds have finally started to come down after a breezy last 7 days. Winds should remain at or below 10 knots through the rest of the week with isolated shower chances today and Wednesday. A cold front will push the area this weekend shifting winds to the north around 10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Shower activity will be lower today and Wednesday before drying out Thursday. This drier air will continue through the weekend with no fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 72 85 71 / 60 20 30 20 FMY 86 72 87 71 / 50 30 40 30 GIF 86 71 88 70 / 60 10 20 10 SRQ 85 71 85 71 / 50 30 30 30 BKV 87 70 88 68 / 60 10 30 20 SPG 83 73 82 72 / 60 20 30 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.