textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue this week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Strong upper level ridging will setup over the eastern U.S. during the week. Meanwhile near the surface, high pressure will hold over the region into Monday then a weakening cool front drifts into north Florida Tuesday and washes out on Wednesday as another area of high pressure sets up over the eastern states during the second half of the week.

For today, the overall flow will remain rather light. Expect another round of sea breeze convection this afternoon and evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will first develop around midday/early afternoon as the west coast sea breeze begins to move inland becoming more scattered to numerous over inland areas during the late afternoon and early evening. Outflow will push back toward the west coast during the evening and could see a few more showers and thunderstorms develop near the coast before moving out into the gulf waters.

Monday looks similar to today, but there will be slightly less moisture across southwest Florida which could limit overall convective coverage here, but not eliminate the chance.

Deeper moisture south of the weakening boundary will move over the region Tuesday leading to scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the area. On Wednesday this moisture shifts south some with highest rain chances from around the I-4 corridor southward.

For Thursday through Saturday, the overall flow will be rather light. This combined with daytime heating, the sea breezes, and plenty of moisture will lead to more scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection each day moving out into the gulf waters each night. The highest chances still look to be from around the I-4 corridor southward.

Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal with daytime highs from the upper 80s along the coast to the mid 90s inland and overnight lows in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of tonight, then some areas of MVFR ceilings could develop with daytime heating during the mid to late morning hours. More MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in convection this afternoon and evening, then VFR conditions should prevail later this evening into Monday morning. Light winds will become west to northwest 5 to 10 knots by midday near the coast then spread inland during the afternoon before becoming light and variable again during the evening. Exception will be near showers and thunderstorms where winds could be gusty and erratic.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Pleasant boating conditions are expected this week with winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. The only marine hazard will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms which may produce gusty winds and locally rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Abundant moisture will keep relative humidity values above critical levels with sustained 20 foot winds less than 15 mph. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week which could cause gusty and erratic winds, otherwise there are no other significant fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 81 94 82 / 30 10 40 20 FMY 95 78 96 79 / 50 30 10 10 GIF 95 77 96 77 / 50 30 50 20 SRQ 94 79 94 80 / 30 20 30 10 BKV 96 76 97 76 / 30 10 30 20 SPG 94 81 94 82 / 30 10 30 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.