textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold conditions with freezing temperatures likely each morning through Thursday.

- Even colder air arrives Saturday night, with widespread hard freeze conditions and low wind chills each morning into early next week.

- Hazardous marine conditions return this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

High pressure will drift east over the region through Thursday with cold dry conditions persisting. Winds have begun to diminish and with light winds and dew points in the teens and 20s temperatures will drop quickly after sunset. Have adjusted temperatures down a couple of degrees from previous forecast and therefore added inland Manatee, inland Sarasota, Hardee, and Desoto Counties to the Freeze Warning for tonight. Could see lows dip to freezing in parts of inland Charlotte and Highlands Counties, but not expecting to see widespread durations of 2 hours or more.

After a cold start we'll abundant sunshine on Wednesday with temperatures a several degrees warmer than today, but still about 10 degrees below normal. Wednesday night will be another cold night with freezing temperatures over similar areas to tonight, but for now have left the Freeze Watch as is.

The moderating trend continues Thursday and Friday, but temperatures remain about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. During this time shortwave energy moves through the upper level trough over the eastern U.S. with an area of low pressure expected to develop over the northern gulf waters. This system will move across the Florida peninsula Friday night and Saturday bringing a chance of showers to the area, followed by gusty northwest to north winds ushering in our next round of cold weather for the early next week. There are indications that this round of cold weather could be colder than what we are seeing now with lows Sunday morning dipping into the 20s across the Nature Coast south into inland southwest Florida while the northwest to north flow keeps areas near the coast from around Tampa Bay south in the lower to mid 30s. Either way we are expecting rather windy conditions Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026 VFR conditions will prevail with northerly winds at 5 to 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

High pressure will remain over the waters through the rest of the week, although wind speeds may approach exercise caution levels at times, especially over the Gulf waters adjacent to southwest Florida. The next front will move in Friday night and Saturday, bringing chances of rain and increasing wind speeds to near Gale Force.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

A cold and dry airmass will hold over the area through Thursday, with critically low humidity expected each afternoon. Despite the low humidity, winds will remain less than 15 mph through the week, preventing Red Flag conditions from developing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 35 60 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 36 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 32 63 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 34 60 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 24 60 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 42 60 46 65 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco- DeSoto-Hardee-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto- Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.