textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Lower rain coverage is expected during the work week, with rain chances of only around 20 percent or less each day from Tuesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Widely scattered storms continue to move northwestward across the southern third of the forecast area. A few more are likely to pop up over the next few hours, but chances remain overall lower than the past several days.

Previous discussion...Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is sitting northeast of Florida setting up southeast flow across the forecast area today, giving way to an afternoon sea breeze near the coast. Under deep moisture, this pattern will translate to scattered to numerous showers and storms developing this afternoon over the interior and building towards the I-75 corridor during the late afternoon and evening with the sea breeze collision, with the highest storm chances over southwest Florida where moisture will be most favorable. While this surface flow pattern is set to continue on Monday, the mid level ridge will start to shift west into a position over Florida, with broad subsidence bringing in drier air aloft. As a result, rain chances will become more isolated on Monday, particularly across the Tampa Bay and I-4 corridor.

Tuesday through the rest of the week, the surface ridge will shift south and setup across central Florida. With ridging at both the surface and aloft, subsidence will continue to dry out the atmospheric column, keeping rain chances well below normal for mid August. In general, only 10-20 percent rain coverage is expected each day, with daily QPFs of around 0.10 inches or less. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and morning lows in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of storm activity. Rain chances remain lower throughout the rest of the afternoon and evening, but localized impacts to the TAF sites are still possible. Rain chances are even lower for tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026 High pressure northeast of Florida will keep southeast flow in place today and Monday, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Winds will generally remain less than 15 knots outside of daily thunderstorms. Tuesday through the rest of the week, the ridge will shift south and will extend across the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf, bringing in drier air aloft with lower rain chances and keeping winds and seas below headline criteria.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Light southeast winds over the next couple of days will turn onshore with the sea breeze in the afternoon. No Red Flag concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Drier conditions will limit rain chances this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 92 77 92 / 20 10 0 20 FMY 76 93 76 94 / 30 40 20 10 GIF 75 93 76 94 / 20 10 10 10 SRQ 75 93 76 93 / 30 20 0 10 BKV 74 94 74 93 / 20 10 10 20 SPG 78 91 78 92 / 20 10 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.