textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Saharan dust will keep rain chances lower and daytime highs hotter over the next several days, likely breaking records in several locations. Continue to practice good heat safety when spending time outdoors.

- Scattered thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-4 and across the eastern interior. Strong, gusty winds and frequent lightning are the greatest threats. Remember to seek shelter indoors if storms threaten.

- Winds begin to increase later this week and into the weekend, leading to choppy conditions across the eastern Gulf and adjacent bays and harbors. Know your limits if planning on hitting the water from Thursday onward into next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 736 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain across the area through the next few hours. Most terminals will remain VFR, however, intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions are possible near TPA/PIE/LAL as rain moves across. VFR conditions are anticipated overnight with light winds prevailing. On Tuesday, even though there will still be some drier air over the region, there will still be some chances for showers/storms to develop across Tampa Bay and north. the highest chances seems to be late morning and into the afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A weak trough is located over the SE CONUS and stretches down to the northern Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, weak surface ridging remains in place across the Florida peninsula. The low-level flow is advecting some Saharan Dust from the Caribbean across the FL peninsula. This is suppressing some of thunderstorm activity for the next several days, despite a WSW flow being in place.

However, the upper-level trough to the north is enhancing vertical ascent, and providing additional forcing. When combined with deeper moisture in the vicinity, this has checked all the boxes necessary for thunderstorm development. As a result, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed and is moving across north Florida. As outflow boundaries push farther south, some new convection is developing (and is expected to continue developing). By the time outflow reaches Tampa Bay, the air should be too dry for any new development to occur near the coast. However, better moisture convergence over the eastern interior may allow for a few additional storms to develop over Polk and Highlands Counties.

With little in the way of convection expected this afternoon near the Tampa Bay and SWFL coasts, the main story continues to be the heat. Daytime highs are already in the low 90s - and the expectation is that temperatures will reach the mid-to-upper 90s before beginning to cool as the sun sets. Even right near the coast, temperatures will still be around 90 degrees with water temperatures now almost that warm as well. Thus it is likely that several records will be broken once again today, and over the next several days.

However, as the drier air mixes down towards the surface with daytime heating, this is reducing the dewpoints just enough to keep the heat indices, or "feels-like" temperatures, in the 105 to 107- degree range. So even though the actual air temperature is hotter, it really shouldn't feel much hotter than a typical day given the lower dewpoints (and thus humidity values).

With the trough lingering through Tuesday, the expectation is that more of the same will take place again tomorrow. There will be some thunderstorms again over N FL (thanks to the added moisture and instability), with a few additional storms popping up over the interior late in the day in the vicinity of where boundaries collide. Heat will continue to be the main impact for much of the coast from Tampa Bay southward, with heat indices remaining borderline for a heat advisory.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

By Wednesday, the upper-level trough retrogrades farther to the west. This will decrease moisture and instability across the Nature Coast, and favors the drier air and Saharan Dust further limiting activity across the entire FL peninsula. Rain chances are very low on Wednesday and Thursday areawide, suggesting these days may have the greatest risk of heat impacts.

As the weekend approaches, rain chances begin to rebound across the region; but with an upper-level low digging into the northern Gulf, winds also increase. This could lead to less-than-ideal boating conditions across coastal waters this weekend. However, this is also the reason for increasing rain chances over the weekend and into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 94 81 94 / 10 30 0 10 FMY 78 97 78 98 / 20 10 10 10 GIF 75 97 76 97 / 20 40 0 10 SRQ 78 94 79 95 / 10 10 0 10 BKV 74 94 75 94 / 10 40 10 10 SPG 80 94 82 94 / 20 20 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.