textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing rain chances through midweek.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The surface high pressure ridge is being suppressed southward this afternoon as a cold front moves into the southeast states. This has shifted the low level flow to a more southerly direction across the area, and eventually southwest across the Nature Coast later this afternoon. Some deeper moisture is spreading north and this combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze will lead to more scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Highest rain chances in our area still look to be over the central interior south into inland southwest Florida during later this afternoon and evening. Convection will wind down this evening with partly cloudy skies overnight.

On Monday, the front will move into the northern parts of the forecast area and then slow down as it drifts across the central peninsula Monday night and eventually into south Florida by late Tuesday. During this time deep moisture in the vicinity of the front will move across the region allowing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop at almost anytime. Highest rain chances will be over the eastern half of the Florida peninsula thanks to the increasing northeast flow around strong high pressure to the north moving into the eastern states.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the strong high to the north will move off the northeast U.S. coast with a tight pressure gradient across the peninsula leading to gusty east to northeast winds across the area. There will continue to be enough moisture for scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms on these days with the highest PoPs over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula.

Friday into next weekend the surface high will drift out into the western Atlantic Ocean, but continue to ridge into the southeast states. The flow will diminish some as the pressure gradient relaxes with some drier air moving into the area. Still looks like there could be enough moisture around for isolated to scattered convection Friday and Saturday, and then only isolated PoPs over the southern interior and southwest Florida Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A cold front will move southeast into the waters Monday and Monday night, with wind speeds increasing to Exercise Caution levels, then Advisory levels by Tuesday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to persist through Thursday and will possibly increase to Gale Warning criteria at times. Rain and thunderstorm chances will also increase through the first half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A cold front will move into the area Monday and then slow down as it moves south across the region and into south Florida by Tuesday night. Winds will be rather light tonight into Monday morning. Winds will increase behind the boundary from the north to northeast and become gusty Monday afternoon from around Interstate 4 northward, and by Tuesday everywhere. Building moisture will prevent Red Flag conditions from developing, and will also bring increased rain chances through much of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 85 66 77 / 10 40 70 60 FMY 68 86 67 81 / 40 50 70 70 GIF 67 86 65 76 / 50 70 70 70 SRQ 68 84 66 77 / 10 40 70 60 BKV 62 85 60 75 / 10 50 70 60 SPG 72 86 70 79 / 10 30 70 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.