textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Weather pattern changes over the next couple of days with east to southeast flow setting up and the more typical summertime mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The upper level troughing over the eastern U.S. will continue to weaken over the next few days with ridging trying to build west from the Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile in the lower levels we'll see the surface ridge drift north over the area today and then setup to our north late in the week through the weekend.

Today will be the transitional day as the surface ridge moves over the region with a general southerly flow in place. Deep moisture will remain across the area and with the lighter southerly flow we'll see some isolated to scattered morning convection over the gulf waters that could affect coastal areas, then more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over land during the afternoon drifting northwest back toward the west coast.

For Thursday and Friday, an increasing easterly flow will become established. Plenty of moisture will be across the area and this combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead to scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection each day.

Over the weekend and into early next week, a lighter southeast flow becomes established. We'll still have enough moisture when combined with the sea breezes to allow scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection to develop each day, but there are signs of some drier air moving in early next week that could lower rain chances some.

Daytime highs will be back to near to a few degrees above normal, while overnight lows remain near normal for this time of year.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Light east to southeast winds early this morning will increase to 5 to 10 knots by late morning and then become onshore at TPA, PIE, and SRQ this afternoon. Light easterly winds will return to all TAF sites this evening. Gusty erratic winds will be possible near showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The surface ridge will be moving north over the next few days shifting the southerly flow across the waters today to an increasing easterly direction for Thursday and Friday, then a lighter southeasterly flow for the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible at almost anytime today, then the timing will change to mainly late afternoon and evening through the weekend as convection.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Today will be a transitional day as the flow shifts to a more southerly direction and then from east to southeast Thursday through the upcoming weekend. Plenty of moisture will remain across the region allowing for a more typical summertime weather pattern with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 76 90 76 / 60 40 80 10 FMY 91 76 92 76 / 80 20 80 10 GIF 89 75 90 76 / 50 20 70 10 SRQ 89 74 92 75 / 50 40 80 10 BKV 90 72 92 73 / 60 30 70 10 SPG 88 77 90 77 / 50 40 80 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.