textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Some showers are forecast overnight and tomorrow morning as a cold front moves into the area. Overall, accumulations will be low and thus will have little impact on current drought conditions.

- Gusty winds are forecast behind the cold front, with wind gusts of 20 to 30 MPH tomorrow afternoon. Hazardous beach and marine conditions develop and linger into Friday in response.

- Freezing conditions are forecast tomorrow night across the Nature Coast.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Satellite and radar data shows an area of considerable cloudiness and light to moderate precipitation is working into the FL Big Bend Region. Timing out the leading edge of the clouds, it looks like this cloud bank is on track to arrive in the Tampa Bay region by 06Z (01 AM LST), with the rain following a couple hours behind. The clouds and precip are generally ahead of the surface front, which the latest surface analysis and obs suggests is still back closer to Panama City.

Unfortunately, there is a mismatch between where the convection currently is located, and where the best and most robust upper-level forcing is located. This suggests only light to moderate precipitation across the area, with low totals expected at the surface. There won't be any meaningful help for drought conditions in response.

Additionally, the gradient will quickly tighten once the surface front moves through, suggesting tomorrow will be a breezy day. High- res guidance this evening has come in with stronger winds than what is currently in the forecast. This tracks with recent post-frontal experiences. As such, have opted to increase the sustained winds and wind gusts. The highest winds will likely occur tomorrow afternoon as the sun begins to peak out from the clouds, mixing the higher winds aloft down to the surface.

Otherwise, the forecast this evening remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Temperatures are finally getting back into the 70's this afternoon but it will be a short lived warm up as a cold front is approaching the area. This front will push through overnight bringing a line a showers through the area. Behind it the cold air will quickly filter back in again. Thursday will once again be a day were the high temperatures will be in the morning hours as temperatures drop after that. Temperatures will continue to drop through the overnight period with freezing temperatures in Levy and Citrus counties on Friday morning with mid to upper 30's everywhere else away from the coast. Temperatures will be struggling to get into the 60's by the afternoon.

Ridging across the southeast will keep us dry with plenty of sunshine. The drier air will bring a big swing in temperatures from morning lows to afternoon highs. We will wake up in the upper 30's and 40's in the morning but will warm up into the low to mid 70's in the afternoon.

As high pressure moves off into the Atlantic the warm up will continue with highs back into the mid to upper 70's by next Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

A cold front will approach Tampa Bay area terminals overnight, and SWFL terminals tomorrow morning. Ahead of this front, a period of MVFR to IFR conditions will take place as some -SHRA move through the area. Once the rain moves out, CIGs will gradually lift through the day. As the CIGs lift to VFR and the sun begins to come out later in the day, the winds will also increase over land, with gusts at coastal terminals approaching 30kts. Gradually, this will subside tomorrow night as high pressure regains control. While VFR will then prevail, colder temps and enough surface moisture could lead frost to develop on aircraft on Friday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 730 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Ahead of a cold front, some showers may occur across coastal waters overnight. As the showers clear out with the front moving through, winds will begin to increase, with gusts in excess of 30kts possible during the day and overnight tomorrow. This will push seas up to 6 to 10 feet offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect in response. Gradual improvement will take place Friday, but a dry, secondary front moving through Friday will lead to another increase in wind speeds and thus the wave heights over the weekend. As stronger high pressure settles across the region late in the weekend, quieter marine weather will return for several days during the first half of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

A cold front will be pushing through overnight bringing a line of showers to the area. By Friday drier air will be filtering keeping RHs around critical levels in the afternoon for Friday and the weekend. However, winds will stay below criteria for a red flag warning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 52 60 43 61 / 80 50 0 0 FMY 55 65 42 64 / 30 80 0 0 GIF 52 62 37 63 / 70 70 0 0 SRQ 53 62 44 62 / 70 70 0 0 BKV 44 59 33 61 / 90 40 0 0 SPG 55 62 48 62 / 80 50 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.