textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 850 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Easterly flow continues at 10 to 20 knots in the low levels, and with enough moisture, precipitable water between 1.5 and 1.7 inches, we'll see more convection develop this afternoon and evening. The easterly flow will keep the sea breeze pinned to the coast and therefore the best chances will be near the west coast like yesterday. Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures climbing into the lower and middle 90s. Forecast looks on track at this time with no adjustments needed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 850 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

A few areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning as daytime heating gets underway, then more MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible this afternoon and evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with easterly winds increasing to around 10 knots this morning. Could see a shift to westerly at SRQ early this afternoon before convection gets going, otherwise the overall easterly flow will persist into this evening then diminish to 4 to 7 knots overnight. Gusty and erratic winds possible near showers and thunderstorms

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Persistent pattern will be relatively locked in for the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula through the week with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will produce east to southeast boundary layer flow across the peninsula through the weekend. The west coast sea breeze boundary will develop each day with the southeast flow holding the boundary over the coastal counties. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon along the boundary with the greatest areal coverage from the Tampa Bay area and south. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH and small hail.

An U/L low east of the Bahamas will drift northwest to just off the east coast of Florida. This will in effect create lower heights over west central and southwest Florida which will aid in increasing convective instability for the next several days. A strong U/L ridge will build over the forecast area during the weekend increasing large scale subsidence over the region. Although afternoon scattered showers/storms are still expected to develop along the west coast sea breeze boundary, the increased subsidence will decrease overall coverage of storms.

Offshore flow will aid in continuing above normal daily temperatures across west central and southwest Florida with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. The increased subsidence over the weekend will allow temperatures to climb even a few degrees higher.

MARINE

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each day that will push locally offshore during the afternoon/evening hours creating locally strong winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 74 91 76 / 60 30 40 10 FMY 92 74 92 73 / 60 20 60 20 GIF 91 72 91 72 / 20 0 30 10 SRQ 93 72 91 74 / 70 30 40 20 BKV 94 69 93 70 / 40 10 30 10 SPG 94 75 93 76 / 60 40 30 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.