textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this weekend, mainly away from the coast

- Warming trend through the weekend into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Westerly flow continues aloft this afternoon with some shortwave energy moving over the state, leading to some extra cloud cover. At the surface, high pressure remains centered east of the state, keeping a southeast low-level flow in place. Moisture has increased slightly, especially over the southern part of the forecast area, and this will lead to a few showers later this afternoon and evening, mainly east of I-75 as the sea breeze pushes away from the coast. A similar setup is expected for Friday, with a few showers in the afternoon once again.

For the weekend, we will continue to see some embedded shortwaves moving overhead with the surface high shifting south as a frontal boundary moves into the southeastern U.S. Boundary layer flow will become southwest to west with this shift and with enough moisture in place, we will see additional showers away from the coast each afternoon. Rain chances lower for early next week, with above normal temperatures continuing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of shower activity. Best chances continue for southwest Florida sites later this afternoon, though they have come down a bit and the PROB30 group could be removed early. Any lingering rain ends after 03Z or so, then no concerns overnight. A similar setup is forecast for tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Southeast winds continue through the end of the week before switching to southwest/west this weekend as a frontal boundary settles north of the area. Rain chances increase slightly for the weekend, but then diminish for early next week. No headlines are expected for the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Southeast winds with an afternoon sea breeze will continue through tomorrow, then winds become southwest this weekend as a frontal boundary settles north of the area. Rain chances increase for the weekend, especially away from the coast, then diminish again next week, though any accumulation is expected to be light. Overall, dry conditions continue, but no Red Flag conditions are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 67 86 68 87 / 10 10 0 10 FMY 65 86 66 88 / 20 20 10 20 GIF 63 87 65 89 / 10 20 0 30 SRQ 65 84 65 84 / 10 10 10 10 BKV 57 86 58 88 / 10 10 0 20 SPG 71 85 72 86 / 10 10 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.