textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Much colder temperatures for most of next week with freezing temperatures likely.

- Hazardous marine conditions on Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

If you've been enjoying the above average, record breaking high temperatures the past couple of days, then you'll be disappointed in this week's forecast. A cold front with a line of showers will move through early this morning. Luckily, our forecast area will be spared from the major ice and snow accumulations that other southern states are dealing with. However, we will have a significant temperature drop as arctic air pushes into our area. Strong high pressure builds back in to the north, as the pressure gradient tightens, the strong, gusty northerly winds will help the freezing temperatures move into most of the peninsula tonight into tomorrow morning. The freeze watch for many northern counties has been upgraded to a freeze warning and the remainder of the forecast areas has been placed in a cold weather advisory tonight. The high temperatures Tuesday will stay in the low 50s to low 60s. This cold pattern lingers all week, through the weekend, and even into early next week. The winds will begin to diminish by Tuesday afternoon, but will increase ahead of another cold front that will move through Saturday night into Sunday morning. The warmth of the past couple of days will be a distant memory as we enter this long stretch of very winter like conditions.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 158 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Low ceilings and patchy fog will continue to impact terminals as a cold front makes its way over the state this morning. Conditions will bounce between MVFR to LIFR throughout the period. A line of showers is also expected to move through early this morning. NW winds will also pick up throughout the day with gusts over 25kts likely. Conditions begin to improve later this afternoon into the evening. Winds will stay elevated through Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 158 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Hazardous marine conditions are expected today through Wednesday as advisory level winds move over the waters along a cold front. A brief period of close to gale force winds could occur this afternoon. There will also be a high risk of rip currents through Wednesday. Winds will drop below advisory level Tuesday afternoon, but will stay around 15kts through the week before increasing to advisory levels once again over the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

A cold front will move through early this morning. Behind the front, cold, dry air will filter in. Relative humidity levels will drop below critical levels tomorrow and stay through the end of the week. Luckily winds are expected to remain below 15 mph during this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 36 56 36 / 40 0 0 0 FMY 76 41 63 38 / 40 0 0 0 GIF 72 35 57 33 / 40 0 0 0 SRQ 71 38 57 36 / 40 0 0 0 BKV 68 27 56 25 / 30 0 0 0 SPG 69 41 57 42 / 40 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco- Sumter.

Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST this morning through Wednesday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota- Pinellas.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.