textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Above normal temps with limited shower and storm chances early this week with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees in the afternoons. - Increasing shower and storm chances gradually spread northward across the area, particularly from around mid week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Another dry and warm day continues with temperatures currently in the low to mid 90s with some areas along the nature coast holding in the upper 80s. Luckily, dry air remains over the area, keeping dew points and humidity low. A few showers could develop over SWFL later this evening and linger after sunset before drifting out over the Gulf.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Tuesday-Wednesday will feature slightly cooler conditions as the ridge aloft over the area breaks down a bit as shortwave energy drops south across the state extending from a digging trough over the W Atlantic. Moisture will gradually be drawn north across the state with shower/storm chances expanding from SWFL into WCFL, with scattered to numerous showers/storms likely from around the I-4 corridor southward by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage expands across remaining areas northward on Thursday and continues into the weekend, with the timing and location of the highest chances likely shifting during the weekend as the surface ridge axis settles southward prompting flow to shift from easterly to westerly over the state.

High temps continue in the lower/mid 90s through much of the week before gradually moderating into the upper 80s/lower 90s late week into the weekend as flow becomes westerly across the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Winds remain out of the ENE. A shift onshore, especially for the northern coast sites is expected as the sea breeze develops this afternoon. Showers could be possible near SWFL terminals, though confidence still remains low no mention in TAFs at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Pleasant marine conditions continue through the week with flow mainly out of the ENE. An afternoon shift onshore is expected with sea breeze development. A few showers over SWFL could drift over the water later tonight as the push westward.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

RH values remain low this afternoon as dry air remains over the area, with some areas dropping below critical levels. Moisture begins to increase starting tomorrow. Shower and storm activity increases through the week as well helping to limit fire concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 92 78 91 / 0 10 10 50 FMY 77 94 76 90 / 30 30 30 70 GIF 74 92 75 91 / 0 10 10 60 SRQ 77 93 76 90 / 0 10 20 50 BKV 72 93 74 92 / 0 10 10 50 SPG 78 93 78 91 / 0 10 10 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.