textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area today and Wednesday.
- Cooler conditions coming next week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 127 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
The upper level low that helped to produce record rainfall over portions on Highlands, Hardee, and DeSoto counties has now pushed farther away. However, we are still seeing southerly flow resulting in scattered afternoon and evening showers. We are not expecting to see significant QPF with this rainfall. We dry out a little bit on Wednesday but some isolated showers will still be possible.
As we head into Thursday and Friday the low pressure system will be dissipating as drier air starts to filter in. Temperatures will be slightly above average with lows in the upper 60's and highs in the mid 80's.
Saturday looks to be very similiar to our Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the mid 80's. However, by Sunday morning we will see our next cold front push through the area. This front will not bring a lot of shower activity but will big cooler air to start our next work week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
VFR conditions expected through the period with winds out of the east and Southeast. We will continue to see gust up to 20 knots through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours.
MARINE
Issued at 127 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
Winds have finally started to come down after a breezy last 7 days. Winds should remain at or below 10 knots through the rest of the week with isolated shower chances today and Wednesday. A cold front will push the area this weekend shifting winds to the north around 10 knots.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 127 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
Shower activity will be lower today and Wednesday before drying out Thursday. This drier air will continue through the weekend with no fire weather concerns.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 72 85 71 / 60 20 30 20 FMY 86 72 87 71 / 50 30 40 30 GIF 86 71 88 70 / 60 10 20 10 SRQ 85 71 85 71 / 50 30 30 30 BKV 87 70 88 68 / 60 10 30 20 SPG 83 73 82 72 / 60 20 30 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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