textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters over the weekend and continuing into next week.

- A cooler drier airmass with below average temperatures will arrive by Sunday and continue through most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

We are going to be stuck in the same weather pattern starting today through Friday and I don't think to many people will complain about it. We will see strong high pressure to our north with the front that just pushed through us stalled south of the Keys. This will result in a tight pressure gradient and strong northeasterly flow. This will keep us dry with below average temperatures. Lows will be around 60 degrees every morning and highs around 80's.

By Friday an upper level low will push through the state from north to south. With the drier air in place we will not see any noticeable differences as it does so. However once it gets down to the stall boundary south of the Keys it will help to restrengthen it. This will bring some gustier winds for the weekend with gust up to 25 to 30 mph.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions through the period with gusty winds out of the northeast.

MARINE

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Strong high pressure to our north and a stall boundary south of the Keys will keep winds elevated through the weekend. Winds through Monday will stay around 20 to 30 knots out of the northeast causing Small Craft Advisories through all of our waters. Winds will come down slightly but not by much starting on Tuesday. We can still expect 15 to 20 knots through the day with nightly surges back up to 20 to 25 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Dry air will be in place through Sunday and the work week with gusty winds out of the northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 67 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 82 70 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 81 67 82 61 / 0 10 0 0 SRQ 81 67 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 79 61 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 79 68 81 64 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.