textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier conditions expected through the week.

- Showers are expected Wednesday into Thursday morning

UPDATE

Issued at 756 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

A strong subsidence inversion around 850mb and a gradual uptick in low level moisture will favor an increase in cloud cover overnight with low stratus covering much of the area by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, high level cloud cover will also stream eastward across the region amid the westerly flow aloft. However, there shouldn't be any visibility issues developing overnight as the wind should remain elevated enough to keep this as solely a stratus deck. Other than some minor tweaks to sky cover this evening based on recent trends, no other changes are needed at this time as lows drop into the 40s across the Nature Coast and mainly 50s elsewhere, though a couple areas may not fall below 60 in SWFL.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The first front of the week has moved through, leaving cooler, drier air behind it. If you enjoy the cold temperatures, you're in luck this week. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 60s and 70s. Another cold front will move through Wednesday into Thursday bringing a decent shot at rain for most areas. Behind that second front, will be significantly colder temperatures Friday and Saturday morning. Current forecast for Friday morning shows widespread temperatures below freezing as far south as Desoto County with counties further south just barely above freezing. Highs Friday will be upper 50s north of I4 and low 60s to the south. Saturday and Sunday will warm slightly, but lows will still be in the 30s throughout the region. Before things can warm up, a third front will move through Sunday. Once again, cold, dry air will filter in behind this third front. Starting next week off still in the 30s and 40s for the lows. Overall the pattern through the rest of the week into next week will be a parade of fronts, each one ushering in cold, dry conditions for a few days. As the coldest days draw closer, cold weather product will likely be issued.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Clouds will gradually lower and thicken overnight into Tuesday with CIGs generally ranging around 030-050 through tomorrow. However, occasional MVFR CIGs could occur at times on Tuesday mainly at coastal terminals. Surface winds will be mainly out of the NE through the period with wind speeds around 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1257 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Marine conditions will continue to improve the rest of today and tomorrow. However, quiet conditions will be short lived as a line of showers moves over the waters Wednesday ahead of another cold front. Winds behind the front will pick up again to cautionary levels thursday to Friday morning. Once again conditions will improve for a couple of days before another cold front moves in Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1257 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Though cooler, drier air has moved in following ysterday's cold front, the RH values will remain above critical. Another front will move through Wednesday bringing a line of showers and breezing conditions. Even drier air will filter in Friday following this front with RH values dipping below critical. However, winds should remain below 15mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 54 71 59 68 / 10 10 30 40 FMY 60 79 62 75 / 10 20 30 30 GIF 55 73 58 71 / 10 10 40 30 SRQ 55 73 60 71 / 10 20 30 30 BKV 44 71 50 68 / 10 10 30 40 SPG 59 71 62 69 / 10 10 30 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.