textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers expected late tonight into early Sunday afternoon.

- Freeze/frost potential Monday morning with cold weather products areawide, then a lingering but diminishing area of freeze/frost potential on Tuesday morning.

- Hazardous marine conditions return Sunday and continue into the middle of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 720 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Early evening IR satellite and regional radar imagery are showing bands of rain and clouds pushing into northern Florida along and ahead of an approaching cold front. This rain is on track to move into the Nature Coast counties during the early morning hours, and will spread south through the forecast area during the day on Sunday, with rain chances generally diminishing as the front pushes south. Strong winds associated with the front will also produce high surf and a high risk or rip currents at area beaches beginning early early Sunday afternoon. Behind the front, the forecast remains on track with much cooler air filling in by Sunday night.

A High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk will be issued for area beaches. Otherwise, no major changes are planned for the evening update.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 720 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions will hold overnight. An incoming cold front will bring chances of rain on Sunday along with strong, gusty winds. Some MVFR ceilings will be likely near and behind the areas of rain, mainly during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

High pressure ridging across the waters from the Atlantic will keep marine conditions below headline criteria tonight. Winds will increase Sunday as the next cold front moves across the waters bringing some showers with it. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop behind the front on Sunday continuing into Sunday night. Conditions will improve some on Monday, but a tight pressure gradient will keep winds around Exercise Caution levels through midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 55 67 37 60 / 20 60 0 0 FMY 57 75 38 65 / 0 30 0 0 GIF 53 70 33 60 / 10 50 0 0 SRQ 54 71 38 61 / 10 60 0 0 BKV 46 64 27 60 / 30 70 0 0 SPG 58 68 43 60 / 20 60 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

High Surf Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Tampa Bay waters.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.