textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026 VFR conditions prevail this morning and are expected through much of the day. This afternoon, easterly winds will become onshore with the sea breeze, with increased shower and thunderstorm activity near all sites after 18Z. For tonight, there are some indications of early morning low clouds, then a similar rain setup is forecast for tomorrow afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue through the week and into the weekend with some record high temperatures possible.

- There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening into early next week.

- Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible the next few days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Upper level ridging continues to ridge over Florida and along the eastern seaboard through the week. On the surface, broad high pressure located near Bermuda ridges westward over the southeast U.S. with the ridge axis extending east to west along the GA/FL line and along the northern Gulf coast. This pattern will keep a predominant easterly flow over the forecast area through the week and into the weekend. Moisture will increase through the latter part of the week, resulting in a increasing chances for showers and a stray storm during the late afternoon and evening today and Friday. High pressure will continue to hold over the region for the first half of next week with a chance of showers and storms possible each day. The pattern changes at the end of the forecast period as an upper ridge and surface high will weaken by the end of next week as an upper trough and a surface low and frontal boundary moves through the Mississippi River Valley. Warm temperatures around 8-10 degrees above average can be expected through the forecast period, with some record highs possible. Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s, with some areas reaching 90 degrees. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 149 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

High pressure ridges across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters producing prevailing easterly winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through the week. A sea breeze will set up along the west coast this afternoon/evening with onshore winds expected. A chance of showers and a stray storm during the late afternoon and evening will be possible each day through the week and into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

High pressure ridging across the region will keep a predominant easterly wind flow over the region with humidity values remaining above critical levels. A chance of showers and a stray storm possible each afternoon and evening. Some patchy fog possible for the next couple of mornings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 86 68 87 68 / 60 30 50 10 FMY 88 68 89 68 / 60 20 40 10 GIF 86 68 88 68 / 50 20 40 10 SRQ 85 67 86 66 / 60 30 50 10 BKV 88 62 89 62 / 50 20 50 10 SPG 85 69 85 69 / 60 30 50 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.