textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, generally moving from west to east through the next few days.

- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall through Monday with the stronger thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 706 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of shower and storm activity. Similar to yesterday, showers over the Gulf will gradually move over coastal areas this morning before additional storms form later today and push eastward. Any of these could cause brief restrictions at area terminals but activity is scattered in nature so hard to pin down time enough for a TEMPO group. A quiet overnight is expected, then a similar setup is forecast for tomorrow morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Surface high pressure located between Bermuda and the Bahamas ridges west-southwestward across southwest Florida and into the eastern Gulf. This will keep a south-southeast through south-southwest wind flow over the region today. PWAT values will drop a little from previous days, with values between 1.7 - 2.1 inches expected, which is still abundant for numerous showers and scattered storms. This pattern will favor showers and storms over the eastern Gulf early in the day and traversing eastward through the afternoon and evening hours.

By Sunday morning, weak high pressure is located in the southeastern Gulf and will produce a more onshore west-southwest wind flow over the region. Abundant moisture remains over the region with scattered to numerous showers and storms anticipated once again on Sunday with showers and storms moving from west to east through the day.

By Monday morning, high pressure ridging remains over south Florida while a weak frontal boundary moves into northern Florida. Interaction between these features will keep abundant moisture over the area and continued onshore flow, resulting in the highest rain and storm chances through the period. Numerous to widespread showers and storms expected during the day on Monday.

There continues to be a low threat of localized flooding in heavier showers and storms through Monday, with a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for most of west central and southwest Florida.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the weak front washes out as high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges west-southwestward through Georgia and into the northeast Gulf. This will bring a pattern shift with a more easterly wind flow over the region. PWAT values remain around 1.8 - 2.2 inches supporting scattered to numerous showers and storms mid to late week next week.

Temperatures will remain around average topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon. Heat indices will remain below Advisory criteria reaching 100-105 degrees each afternoon. Overnight lows remain in the mid to upper 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 214 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

High pressure will hold over the waters for the next few days with relatively light south through west wind flow 10 knots or less and seas less than 2 feet. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the morning hours, during the next few days, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Abundant moisture with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected through the weekend and into the first half of next week. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 79 91 79 / 20 10 30 20 FMY 92 77 92 78 / 50 30 50 20 GIF 93 75 94 75 / 50 10 50 10 SRQ 91 78 91 79 / 30 10 20 20 BKV 91 74 92 74 / 30 20 40 30 SPG 90 79 91 80 / 30 10 20 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.