textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Fair, warm, and dry conditions expected today and Wednesday.

- A few showers will be possible over the Nature Coast Thursday, then much better rain chances across the entire region late Saturday through Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

High pressure centered over the southeast is keeping conditions warm and mostly dry over Florida today and tomorrow. By Thursday, a weak frontal boundary will move into northern Florida and stall till the end of the week. This will lead to increased rain chances, especially for the Nature Coast Thursday and Friday. Temperatures through the remainder of the week will remain above normal, as this frontal boundary fails to move further south into the area. However, over the weekend a stronger frontal boundary is expected to dip down into Florida. This boundary is expected to bring some much needed rain to the area starting with the Nature Coast Saturday then spreading south Saturday night into Sunday. Rain chances remain, though decrease Sunday night into Monday as the front lingers over South Florida. Temperatures will begin to drop below normal on Sunday as the front moves out of the area. Unfortunately, after a chilly morning on Monday temperatures are expected to return to near normal that afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Easterly winds will shift more W to NW this afternoon along the coast as a sea breeze develops and moves inland. Patchy fog is possible overnight into early morning, especially inland. Confidence on impacts to terminals was too low to include in TAFs at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

East to southeast winds remain for the next few days with a shift onshore each afternoon as a sea breeze develops. A weak cold front approaches the waters Thursday, shifting winds more west southwest. A stronger cold front approaches Saturday, increasing winds and seas, as well as the chance for thunderstorms. Cautionary to advisory level conditions are expected as the front moves through.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

High pressure holds over the area keeping conditions dry and warm. RH values will be near critical levels through the remainder of the week, especially inland. Wind speeds will remain below Red Flag Conditions. Moisture increases this weekend as a frontal boundary pushes through brining much needed rain to the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 87 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 69 88 70 89 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 67 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 68 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 61 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 74 85 75 86 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.