textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Light shower possible early this morning over SW Florida. - Near record high temperatures arriving mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 Possible light shower through the early morning hours over southwest Florida, otherwise surface high pressure will continue to build over the region today with easterly boundary layer flow, and an onshore sea breeze developing near the coast during the mid/late afternoon hours. Dry warm conditions returning to the area.

A strong U/L ridge will begin to build over the Florida peninsula on Wednesday with increasing large scale subsidence over the forecast area which will cause temperatures to climb several degrees above climatic normal...with highs away from the coast in the lower to mid 90s Wednesday through the upcoming weekend with record high temperatures possible (welcome to a taste of summer). The subsidence will also inhibit afternoon convection creating flattened CU/partly cloudy skies (although potential for little in the way of clouds at all) and rather hot temperatures...and mostly clear nights. NBM likely high on dew points across inland areas during the afternoon hours for the next several days as drier air aloft is expected to mix down. This is not uncommon during the month of May under a strong U/L ridge. Have adjusted DPs down creating lower RH's. Given the overall drought status across the region, this will likely enhance the wildfire danger...even with the recent rainfall. Winds are expected to remain less than 15 MPH.

A frontal boundary will approach north Florida late in the week stalling across north Florida as it becomes parallel to the U/L flow. There will be a chance of showers/thunderstorms developing over the nature coast as moisture increases and the mid level cap begins to erode. The U/L ridge will gradually give way and be suppressed to the south over the weekend with a slightly better chance of afternoon showers/storms across the forecast area, with the best chance over the interior due to onshore boundary layer flow.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 A few showers offshore southwest Florida is creating a mid level deck over FMY/RSW with VFR CIGs around 100. The showers are expected to dissipate by sunrise with skies becoming partly cloudy. Area of VFR CIGs 040-060 vcnty TPA/PIE/SRQ will also dissipate over the next several hours.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with SCT040-050 SCT250 expected to develop at all terminals this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the week with generally benign conditions expected. Easterly flow today will shift to the south to southeast by mid week...then veer to the west and southwest ahead of a frontal boundary late in the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1213 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 As was mentioned in the discussion above, dry air aloft is expected to mix down over the interior the next couple of afternoons which will create min RH's near to slight below critical levels, which will enhance the fire danger. Winds are expected to remain less than 15 MPH, so an RFW will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 71 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 90 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 88 69 95 70 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 87 69 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 90 61 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 88 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.