textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters over the weekend and continuing into next week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday.

- A cooler drier airmass with below average temperatures will arrive by Sunday and continue through most of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 711 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 A cold front will move through the region today, bringing scattered showers and storms starting this morning and moving north to south through the day. VFR conditions prevail so far, but MVFR/IFR is possible in any storms that move over terminals. Winds will also increase out of the northeast this afternoon and evening once most of the rainfall ends, with gusts up to around 25 knots expected through tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure has shifted farther southeast into the Atlantic as deep upper level troughing digs southward through the Ohio River Valley and into the southeast U.S. A surface low is located over New England and the associated cold front extends southwestward through the southeast U.S. and into the central Gulf. This front will push through the Florida peninsula today producing scattered to numerous showers and storms through late this evening.

By late this evening into early Sunday, the cold front will be located over southern Florida, while a strong 1036 MB high pressure center sets up over the Ohio River Valley. This high will help usher in a drier and cooler air mass into Florida starting on Sunday and continuing into next week. Skies and rain coverage will clear from north to south, with most of the rain ending by midnight on Saturday night.

Starting Sunday morning, high pressure will remain in control producing low rain chances for most of next week. However, a tight pressure gradient between the remnant cold front south of Florida and the strong high pressure over the Ohio River Valley will set up over the Florida peninsula producing breezy north through northeast winds for most of next week. These breezy winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters with a Small Craft Advisory in effect from this morning and continuing through at least the first half of next week.

A big cool down and lower humidity is expected starting today as the cold front pushes south through the Florida peninsula. Well below average temperatures expected Sunday through most of next week with daytime highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s north and low to mid 60s central and south. Dew points will also dip into the 50s north of Tampa Bay, while low to mid 60s expected central and southwest Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Marine conditions expected to deteriorate today as a cold front approaches the waters bringing a line of showers and storms over the eastern Gulf waters. Hazardous marine conditions with gusty winds and building seas will set up over the eastern Gulf waters starting this morning over the northeast Gulf and spreading south through the day as a tight pressure gradient sets up over the region in the wake of this front. Increasing north through northeast winds around 20-30 knots and seas up to 13 feet expected. This has warranted the need for a Small Craft Advisory starting this morning and continuing well into the first half of next week. Conditions will be closely monitored for a possible Gale Warning as well over the weekend and into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Showers and storms expected today as a cold front pushes through the Florida peninsula. Humidity values will remain above critical levels through the forecast period. The rain clears late this evening with rain-free conditions expected on Sunday and into next week. The only fire weather concern will be breezy north through northeast winds greater than 15 mph starting Saturday afternoon and continuing into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 64 79 66 / 70 10 0 0 FMY 83 69 82 69 / 80 30 10 0 GIF 80 65 81 66 / 50 10 10 10 SRQ 81 65 81 66 / 80 10 0 0 BKV 78 59 78 60 / 50 0 0 0 SPG 80 66 80 68 / 80 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.