textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The week will start out with a weakening cold front drifting south into north Florida and washing out by midweek. This will keep the westerly flow across the area through Tuesday and with plenty of moisture, precipitable water values between 1.8 and 2.1 inches, we'll see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters moving onshore during the morning hours, then shifting inland and becoming more numerous over the eastern half of the Florida peninsula during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

During midweek there will be a brief pattern change as high pressure builds in from the northeast setting up a more east to southeast flow on Wednesday. Abundant moisture will remain across the area and this combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the area.

For Thursday and Friday, the high settles further south with the flow becoming more south to southwest across the region. The chance for morning showers and thunderstorms near the coast will return, especially from around Tampa Bay northward, with the highest rain chances extending from inland southwest Florida north northeast across the interior into northeast Florida each afternoon and evening.

As we move through next weekend, the high pressure ridge is expected to drift back north with a southeasterly flow setting up across the Florida peninsula returning us to the more typical mainly afternoon and evening convection chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Some MVFR/occasional IFR conditions will be possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning into the afternoon hours, otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected. Light winds will become westerly at 5 to 10 knots by late morning, then diminish and become light once again by late Sunday evening.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

An area of high pressure remains south of the waters keeping relatively light westerly winds in place through Tuesday. The main hazard will continue to be scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the late night and morning hours, which will produce locally gusty winds and higher seas. During midweek the winds will become more easterly supporting showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening hours. However, by late week the flow will shift to a more south to southwest direction with scattered late night and morning showers and thunderstorms again possible. No headlines are anticipated at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Westerly flow will continue through Tuesday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters moving onshore during the morning hours, then shifting inland and becoming more numerous over the eastern half of the Florida peninsula during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 79 90 77 / 30 20 60 40 FMY 92 78 92 76 / 30 20 60 30 GIF 94 75 93 74 / 40 20 70 40 SRQ 92 79 91 76 / 30 20 50 40 BKV 91 74 90 72 / 30 30 70 50 SPG 91 80 89 78 / 30 20 60 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.