textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters are expected over the weekend and continuing into next week.

- Moisture will continue to increase with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Saturday.

- A cooler drier airmass with below average temperatures will arrive by Sunday and continue through most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The warm dry pattern gets disrupted today as moisture works its way back over the area, clearly evident by this morning's sounding showing the PWAT value over 2 inches. With increased moisture, daytime heating, and a bit of a sea breeze developing, scattered to numerous showers are expected. Highest coverage will likely be over the interior. WPC has placed the majority of the area in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for excessive rainfall, likely due to the potential for isolated heavy downpours in slow moving storms. Meanwhile a cold front will approach the area overnight before moving through Florida tomorrow . Showers and storms are expected to accompany the front as it moves over the area.

Saturday evening into Sunday, once the cold front has moved south of the forecast area, high pressure will build back in. This will create a tight pressure gradient between the two, which will lead to elevated winds over the area. This will lead to hazardous marine conditions through the weekend and into next week. However, the strong north to northeasterly breeze will help usher in some cooler and drier air. High temperatures are expected to be in mid/upper 70s to low/mid 80s through the forecast period. Low temperatures will be in the low 50s to low 60s. Should be a nice stretch of fall like conditions for the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the period. Only exception will be showers and and storms that develop this afternoon. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions for ceilings and visibility restrictions as well as gusty winds are possible in the vicinity of storms.

MARINE

Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Marine conditions expected to deteriorate tomorrow as a cold front approaches the waters bringing a line of showers and storms. Behind the front, the pressure gradient tightens up between the high pressure that moves towards the area and the retreating cold front. This will quickly elevate winds starting tomorrow and lasting into next week. Sustained winds between 25-30kts, with higher gusts expected. Current forecast trends have slightly lowered winds over the waters, keeping only a few isolated gusts near gale force. However, we will continue to monitor trends and observations. Overall, marine conditions are expected to be hazardous into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Increase in moisture today will lead to some afternoon showers and storms. A cold front moves through tomorrow. A cooler drier air mass will move over the area behind it. However, RH values are expected to remain above critical levels. Breezy conditions are expected through the weekend and into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 80 62 77 / 40 60 0 0 FMY 76 83 68 81 / 40 70 40 10 GIF 74 81 63 79 / 40 50 10 0 SRQ 76 82 64 79 / 40 70 10 0 BKV 72 79 59 76 / 40 50 0 0 SPG 76 80 64 77 / 50 70 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.