textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Low potential for dense sea fog over the eastern Gulf early Sunday morning.

- Slight to Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the area associated with a cold front late Sunday into Monday north of about Bradenton.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 A strong southern stream disturbance and area of low pressure currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley will track east over the southeast U.S. today. As this system approaches the area, the gradient will tighten and winds will increase this afternoon from the south and southeast with gusts of 25 to 35 MPH. Increasing cloudiness through the day and warm with the aforementioned gusty conditions.

A line of showers and thunderstorms (QLCS) ahead of an associated cold front will push across the nature coast during the mid/late afternoon hours...across west central Florida including the Tampa area during the late afternoon and evening hours...and finally southwest Florida a few hours before to a few hours after midnight.

Favorable atmospheric conditions will be in place to create the potential for a few severe storms along the QLCS. Typical cold season high shear/low CAPE (HSLC) environment will be over the region, although the best overall dynamics will be located across the northern forecast area. A 40-50 kt LLJ will develop from about the Tampa Bay area north...SRH values will increase to the 200-300 m2/s2 range from Tampa north which will create the risk for isolated tornadoes...and a coupled upper level jet will be over the region which will also enhance the threat for damaging wind gusts along the QLCS. Much of the forecast area will be in the RRQ of the polar jet which will be located in the exit region of the approaching U/L trough. The subtropical jet (STJ) will be cutting across the southern half of the Florida peninsula which places the LFQ from about Bradenton north. SPC has the northern nature coast in a slight risk for severe storms, and areas south of there to about Bradenton in a marginal risk for severe storms...which lines up well with the upper level jet dynamics.

Other hazards associated with this system will be the risk of minor coastal flooding from about Hernando Beach north as the increasing south to southwest winds over the eastern Gulf will cause water levels to rise about 2 feet above astronomical tide levels along the coast. The timing is a bit earlier than 24 hours ago, and the maximum surge values will be coming in closer to the secondary low tide timeframe. At time of high tide during the late evening and overnight hours, maximum water levels are expected to be around 1 to 2 feet MHHW (for Levy county, around 3 feet MSL). The strong winds over the waters will also create a high risk of rip currents today and tonight...and a low to moderate risk of high surf along area beaches.

High pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front Monday and Monday night with slightly drier cooler air advecting over the area...however temperatures will only drop back to near climatic normals for a day. The area of high pressure will shift east of Florida mid week with boundary layer winds veering to the east/southeast which will cause L/L moisture to increase and temperatures to warm back to several degrees above climatic normals, which will persist through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the night with LCL VFR CIGs around 050-060 at all terminals. Increasing cloudiness today with VFR CIGs at all terminals along with gusty south winds of 20 to 30 knots developing this afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the northern terminals during the mid/late afternoon hours. A few storms may be severe. The storms won't reach southwest terminals until late Sunday evening to around midnight. Storms will likely not be severe across southwest Florida, but can't rule out an isolated strong storm with gusty winds.

MARINE

Issued at 1252 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 Winds and seas will build today ahead of a cold front with a SCA advisory in effect. A few wind gusts could reach Gale Force, mainly over the northern waters. A potent storm system will move across the region this afternoon and Sunday night with a line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front moving across the waters. A few storms may be severe, with the best chance over the northern and central waters. Winds will shift to the north and northwest behind the front on Monday with winds and seas subsiding. High pressure will hold over the waters the remainder of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1252 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will persist over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 62 74 58 / 50 90 10 0 FMY 80 64 79 58 / 0 70 10 0 GIF 83 62 77 57 / 20 90 10 0 SRQ 77 61 72 56 / 30 80 10 0 BKV 82 53 75 47 / 60 90 10 0 SPG 77 64 73 60 / 50 80 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from this afternoon through late tonight for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.