textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler weather expected through the weekend. - Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters starting Monday and continuing into most of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Broad upper level troughing encompasses the eastern half of the U.S. through the weekend. On the surface, the cold front has moved south and east of Florida, allowing for strong polar high pressure to build into the area from the northwest. After a cool start this morning, clear skies and well below average cool temperatures in the 60s expected to continue for today. The coldest night will be Saturday night into Sunday morning with widespread 40s expected across the region, with some inland areas along the Nature Coast even dipping into the upper 30s. By late Sunday morning, strong high pressure south of the Great Lakes ridges southward through the southeast U.S. and into the northeast Gulf. This will bring a shift in winds from the north to the northeast, allowing for a slight warm up on Sunday afternoon, with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 70s under continued sunny skies. Overnight lows into Monday morning will be back up into the mid 40s north to mid to upper 50s central and south.

By Monday morning, upper ridging moves into the southeast U.S. as surface high pressure south of the Great Lakes continues to ridge southward across Florida and into the Gulf keeping sunny skies over the area on Monday. Daytime highs on Monday will reach the mid 70s to around 80 for most of the area. Looking farther to the west, models are continuing to develop a short wave and surface low south of Louisiana over the western Gulf. Both GFS and ECMWF keep the high pressure north of the area the dominant feature keeping the short wave and possible surface low in the central Gulf and moving it closer to Cuba and dissipating by the middle of next week. If this pattern holds true, rain chances will remain on the low side for most of next week. Temperatures will moderate closer to average from Tuesday through the end of next week.

MARINE

Issued at 131 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

High pressure ridges over the eastern Gulf waters producing rain- free conditions and north to northeast winds around 15 knots through Sunday evening. Increasing wave action will produce a High Risk of Rip Currents at local beaches today. Winds will increase to around 15-20 knots by late Sunday evening and continue through Monday, so Small Craft should Exercise Caution. Winds further increase to Small Craft Advisory level around 20-25 knots late Monday and will continue through most of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 131 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Drier air will overspread the region through the weekend. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the mid 30s to mid 40s today and Sunday. Moisture will rebound starting on Monday and into next week with no other fire weather concerns expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 65 49 73 57 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 69 52 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 67 49 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 67 51 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 65 43 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 65 54 72 60 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.