textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- East-southeast flow continues with a typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through the first half of next week.

- Tropics remain quiet over the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Best chances are denoted with TEMPO groups and generally start earlier for southwest Florida sites, then expand northward through other terminals. Southeast winds this morning become southwest with the sea breeze this afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Upper ridging and surface high pressure located between Bermuda and the Carolinas ridges west-southwest across north Florida and into the northeast Gulf. This will keep an east-southeast wind flow over the region through the weekend, except along the west coast where the sea breeze will set up. Abundant moisture with PWAT values between 1.8 - 2.2 inches and daytime heating will support daily scattered showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening.

On Monday, the upper ridge and surface high pressure will nudge slightly southward between Bermuda and the Bahamas. A continued east- southeast wind flow will persist through the first half of next week. Some slightly drier air will move into the region with PWAT values between 1.5 - 1.8 inches expected. This will bring slightly lower rain and storm chances (20-40 percent), but still enough for scattered to isolated showers and storms developing each afternoon.

By Wednesday afternoon into the latter part of next week, the ridge axis will shift further south over south Florida, bringing a shift in winds to a southwest through westerly direction. The slightly drier air will stick around through the end of next week with lower rain and storm chances to around 20-30 percent.

Temperatures and heat indices are expected to stay below advisory criteria through the period with daytime high temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

High pressure ridging across northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf will produce a predominant east through southeast wind flow over the coastal waters, except along the immediate coast where the sea breeze sets up producing onshore flow. Scattered showers and storms expected each day with the highest chances during the late afternoon and evening hours. Outside of showers and storms, winds will generally remain less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

East-southeast winds will continue through the weekend and into the first half of next week. Abundant moisture will remain across the region allowing for a summertime weather pattern with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 76 92 78 / 60 20 40 10 FMY 93 76 93 76 / 60 40 60 10 GIF 93 75 93 76 / 60 40 40 10 SRQ 91 75 93 76 / 50 20 50 20 BKV 92 73 94 74 / 60 20 40 10 SPG 88 77 91 78 / 50 20 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.