textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 208 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026
- Isolated to scattered shower and storm coverage through the week with highest chances away from the immediate coast.
- Daily maximum heat index values of 105+ degrees likely areawide.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Happy first day of summer to everyone else in the country, here in Florida it's felt like summer since March. Just like any typical day in Florida, it will be hot with an isolated chance of afternoon showers, mainly inland and to the east. Highs will top out in the 90s with some heat indices reaching triple digits. Remember, when enjoying activities outdoor to take breaks in the shade or air conditioning and drink plenty of water. Unfortunately, the pattern remains mostly unchanged through the week with slight fluctuations in rain chances and high temperatures. Overall, it will be very warm, with near-record high temperatures, especially at the start of the week when rain chances will be lowest.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 208 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026
VFR conditions prevail with winds mainly out of the WSW. A few showers could develop this afternoon, but will likely remain inland and continue to drift towards the east away from TAF sites. Best chance for shower activity will be LAL, but that chance still remains low.
MARINE
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Pleasant boating conditions continue through the week as the westerly flow remains less than 10kts. Main concern today will be a few pop up showers that could develop over the southern waters this evening.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Conditions remain mostly dry and hot through mid week. However, RH values will remain above critical and winds will remain below 15mph. Showers and storms will likely develop over the interior again today, before pushing further east. Rain chances decrease Monday and Tuesday before returning by midweek. .
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 94 81 93 / 0 10 0 10 FMY 78 96 79 94 / 10 40 20 30 GIF 75 95 76 95 / 10 20 10 20 SRQ 78 93 79 93 / 0 10 0 10 BKV 74 95 76 94 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 80 93 81 93 / 0 10 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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