textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- The next cold front arrives Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning. There is a 60% to 80% chance of showers tomorrow night as the front moves through. The probability of thunderstorms is low.

- Hazardous marine conditions are forecast Thursday morning through Friday morning. Winds of 20kts to 30kts with gusts to near gale force (34kts) are forecast. This will create seas up to 10 feet offshore and seas of 4 to 7 feet nearshore. Inexperienced mariners should remain in harbor.

- A significant cooldown is forecast late this week. Friday morning will be the coldest, with lows in the 20s and 30s away from the coast, and around 40 degrees along the coast. Plan accordingly, particularly in the overnight and early morning hours when temperatures will be at their coldest.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A trough axis is centered over the Great Lakes region and stretches south into the Central Plains, becoming increasingly diffuse as weak ridging holds on across the Caribbean and southern Gulf. This is, however, being eroded as a cut-off low propagates eastward across West TX. For now, though, the pattern remains relatively flat and surface high pressure remains in control.

Given the surface ridge axis placement well to the East near Bermuda, a return flow has settled across the FL peninsula. Relatively warmer and more moist air is being advected back across the region. With this lower-level moisture this means more clouds and weak low-level instability. A low-topped, quick-passing shower cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon/evening across the southern interior and SWFL given this setup, but most areas should stay dry today.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The more impactful weather system arrives late tomorrow and into Thursday morning. The cut-off low over TX is absorbed by the flow as the trough over the Great Lakes digs into the SE and becomes positively tilted. This will usher in a strong cold front to the region.

Ahead of the front, showers are forecast to develop across Gulf waters and move onshore. Some of these showers could have some gusty winds - but the overall potential for lightning is low given the weak (-5C) low-level lapse rates. It's just not a very rapidly cooling atmosphere in the layer where the deeper moisture lies.

However, the strong frontal system will drive a steep pressure gradient and thus favor gusty winds. These will begin to increase as the front approaches, but will become stronger once the front passes. Wind gusts over coastal waters could approach gale force (34kts). Friction over land favors wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts.

Colder air then filters in behind the frontal passage, with several chilly days in store. The coldest day in the forecast currently looks to be Friday. Lows will generally be in the 20s and 30s, except right at the water where temperatures will be closer to 40 degrees due to the relatively warmer water.

Gradually, temperatures then begin to warm up through the weekend as high pressure settles east and the low-level flow veers to more of a southerly direction. However, meridional flow stays dominant in the upper-levels, which means another trough and associated frontal boundary will arrive in the area early next week. This will hold temperatures down, and favors some additional cooling early next week. Currently, next Monday is also looking pretty similar temperature-wise to how Friday will be this week. Gradual warming then resumes towards the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The only significant aviation concern over the next 24 to 30 hours is for MVFR to perhaps even IFR conditions due to low CIGs. There is a low (less than 20%) probability of a shower after 18Z tomorrow for Tampa Bay area terminals. Probabilities for showers will then increase overnight Wednesday into Thursday as the next front approaches. A period of MVFR to even IFR weather will also accompany these showers before conditions gradually improve through Thursday. However, gusty winds should be expected during the day Thursday, before gradually improving Thursday night and into Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Marine conditions will begin deteriorating late tomorrow as the next cold front approaches. Some storms are forecast across coastal waters, with some locally hazardous marine conditions possible in the vicinity. However, winds begin to increase significantly behind the front, with gusts to near gale force possible on Thursday. This favors dangerous seas of up to 10 feet offshore and 4 to 7 feet nearshore. Inexperienced mariners should remain in port until conditions improve. Winds then begin to settle Thursday night and into Friday, with improving marine conditions Saturday before gradually increasing again as the next front approaches late in the weekend and early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

No significant fire weather concerns through tomorrow with ample moisture and light winds to preclude any red flag concerns. The next front arrives overnight Wednesday and into Thursday, with the potential for some rain across the entire region. Conditions then dry out on Thursday as winds increase. Winds then diminish into Friday and the first half of the weekend, which will again lower fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 58 69 55 63 / 10 20 80 40 FMY 63 75 60 70 / 20 10 70 70 GIF 58 71 54 62 / 20 20 60 40 SRQ 59 70 57 66 / 10 20 80 60 BKV 50 68 47 61 / 10 20 70 30 SPG 62 70 59 65 / 10 20 80 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.