textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will increase through the rest of the week, with high temperatures running about 5-10 degrees above normal by Friday.

- Some late night and early morning fog will be possible each day into the weekend, along with some sea fog over the coastal waters.

- Hazardous marine conditions and much cooler temperatures return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Through the remainder of the week, dominate surface ridging over the western Atlantic will extend into the Florida Peninsula, keeping south and southwest flow in place across the forecast area. This pattern will allow temperatures and dew points to increase each of the next few days, bringing unseasonably warm and humid temperatures for mid to late February. By Friday and Saturday, afternoon temperatures over the interior will approach 90, with low to mid 80s expected elsewhere. Apart from the unusually warm conditions, the other weather concern will be from late night and early morning fog developing each day beginning tonight, with both sea fog and inland based radiational fog possible.

During the weekend, a broad upper level trough will swing into the eastern CONUS, pulling a cold front into the Florida Peninsula early Sunday. Rain chances will increase along and ahead of this front Saturday night into Sunday, then breezy north and northwest winds behind the front will advect a much cooler air mass into the area Sunday night and Monday. Lows Monday morning are forecast to drop into the upper 30s over the Nature Coast and 40s to low 50s elsewhere, then lows will approach freezing in parts of the Nature Coast Tuesday morning with wind chills expected to be in the mid 20s and low 30s across most of the forecast area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 222 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

A few patches of fog or low stratus will be possible this morning, with the highest chances over southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. VFR conditions should then return by around 14z and hold through the rest of the day. More fog will be possible across the area after 06z tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 222 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Atlantic high pressure ridging into the eastern Gulf will hold through the rest of the week, with southerly to southeasterly winds remaining less than headline criteria. Under this southerly flow, some areas of sea fog will be possible over the coastal waters later today and tonight. The next cold front is forecast to push into the waters on Sunday, bringing increasing chances of rain beginning Saturday night and and winds increasing to advisory levels on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 222 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Relative humidity percentages will drop to around 40 this afternoon over parts of the interior, but they are not expected to reach critically low thresholds. Humidity increases through the rest of the week. Some patchy fog will be possible each of the next several mornings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 62 80 64 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 83 62 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 84 60 85 62 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 78 62 79 62 / 0 0 10 0 BKV 82 56 84 58 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 78 64 79 65 / 0 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.