textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the nature coast today through Sunday. Marginal risk for the remainder of west central and southwest Florida.

- Flood Watch in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties from noon today through 8 PM Monday.

- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Although some drier mid level air advected over the region during the past 12 to 18 hours, that is quickly eroding and PCPW values will be climbing back AOA 2.25 inches for the weekend and into Monday. An anomalously sharp U/L trough will dig over the eastern U.S. during the next couple of days with an associated frontal boundary pushing across the southeast U.S. and stalling over the Florida panhandle on Sunday. Deep southwest flow ahead of the front will persist over west central and southwest Florida for the next several days. The best U/L support and large scale lift will occur over the northeast Gulf and nature coast this afternoon through Monday...but the best dynamics looks to be in place late Saturday night and Sunday. The overall bulk of the shower/thunderstorm activity will be north of the Tampa Bay area, however, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will still occur across the entire forecast area each day. WPC has indicated that there is a slight risk for excessive rainfall for portions of the nature coast today and Sunday. This is very much supported by the dynamics/deep tropical moisture over the area and expected rounds of showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rain through Monday. For this reason, a flood watch has been issued for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties from noon today through Monday evening. Heaviest rainfall totals will likely occur near the coast, with locally 2 to 4 inches of rain possible each day with isolated higher amounts. The potential exists for rainfall totals today through Monday of 4 to 8 inches across the watch area, with locally higher amounts.

Highest pops each day will be across the north with lower pops south...however as mentioned previously, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across all of west central and southwest Florida each day through Monday with localized flooding of urban and low lying poor drainage areas possible each day.

The U/L trough will begin to lift away from the forecast area early next week, with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic building across the Florida peninsula. Tuesday will be a transition day as the boundary layer flow becomes re-established from the east to southeast by mid week. This will shift the timing of daily showers/storms to the mid/late afternoon and evening with the highest pops along the coastal counties as the west coast sea breeze boundary fails to progress very far inland each day...before being pushed back to the coast and offshore during the late afternoon/evening hours.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Isolated to scattered showers will develop over the coastal waters through the remainder of the night and will advect locally onshore. Primarily VFR CIGs will prevail tonight...with SCT LCL BKN over southwest Florida. However, a brief shower may impact all terminals with the exception of LAL with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs through the early morning hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop during the late morning and afternoon and may impact terminals periodically through the day with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 West to southwest flow will persist through the weekend and into early next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and pushing onshore around and shortly after sunrise each day. Periods of widespread showers/storms will likely occur over the northern waters through Monday. Cautionary level winds will occur on portions of the waters for the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Monday evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.