textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue into mid week.

- Breezy areawide with a slight chance of showers mainly across the interior and southwest Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

U/A analysis courtesy of morning W/V imagery shows a sharp C/E U.S. ridge and deep E Seaboard/W Atlantic trough extending south to a cut-off low over Cuba and The Bahamas. At the surface, high pressure over much of the E U.S. ridges south into the area north of a boundary/surface trough over The Bahamas. Resulting low- to mid-level E/NE flow continues to advect Atlantic moisture over the peninsula, with low clouds and showers/sprinkles occasionally working across the peninsula into W FL areas leading to generally isolated shower coverage today and Tuesday. Tightened gradient in place with the setup will continue breezy conditions, with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph over the next few afternoons.

U/L pattern shifts a bit into mid week, with the ridge axis shifting east and re-orienting north of FL as the E Seaboard/W Atlantic troughing fills and lifts northeast, leaving the cut-off low near Cuba/The Bahamas and gradually filling. E/NE moisture fetch off the Atlantic into the peninsula lengthens in response to the re-positioned ridge axis, leading to PWATs climbing to 1.5-2 inches area wide on Wed-Thu with isolated to scattered rain chances gradually expanding westward from the interior into areas closer to the coast, particularly along/south of I-4. Dew points climb into the mid/upper 60s to lower/mid 70s over the latter half of the week accompanying the uptick in rain chances, while winds remain breezy out of the E/NE, although not as elevated as during the early-week period. Overall conditions then hold into the weekend with isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms each afternoon, with highest chances favoring areas away from immediate coastal locations. Temps will run within a few degrees of normal over the next few days before warming to above normal over the latter half of the week, into the mid 60s/lower 70s for morning lows and the mid/upper 80s for afternoon highs.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Mainly VFR with continued breezy to gusty E/NE flow across terminals with Atlantic moisture streaming west across the peninsula bringing periods of cloudiness and shower chances.

MARINE

Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Strong winds and rough seas will keep hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters into mid week, with near-gale force wind gusts through this evening. Small craft operators should remain in port until conditions improve later in the week. The persistent offshore wind flow will also cause tides to run below astronomical levels through much of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Gusty northeast winds continue through mid week before diminishing slightly over the latter half of the week. Spotty high dispersions will be possible for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible today and Tuesday, primarily favoring the interior, before moisture increases mid to late week accompanied by an uptick in shower chances. No significant fire weather hazards are expected through the period as sufficient low level moisture will remain in place keeping minimum relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 84 67 84 70 / 10 0 10 0 FMY 86 70 86 72 / 10 0 10 0 GIF 85 67 85 70 / 10 10 10 0 SRQ 85 68 85 70 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 84 62 85 65 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 83 68 83 71 / 10 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.