textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 223 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Continued dry air advection into the region today. - Gradual return to more typical summertime pattern over the weekend.

SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)

Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Just another beautiful day in paradise with dewpoints in the 60s and temperatures across the area in the 80s, and a nice easterly breeze. Upper level ridging remains along the East Coast while a disturbance and associated stationary boundary are south of the state. At the same time, dry air continues to be advected into the peninsula as high pressure builds. PWAT values in this morning's sounding was 1.30 inch, which is fairly low for this time of the year. This will limit rain chances in most of the area, but areas in SWFL will be close enough to the boundary that it may support shower activity later this afternoon and evening.

Afternoon temperatures today will run below normal, and max out in the mid to upper 80s along the coast with areas over the interior staying in the low 80s. Slightly warmer and drier conditions are anticipated on Friday. Highs climbing up into the upper 80s to low 90s.

LONG TERM (SAT-WED)

Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

During the long term, gradual warm up is anticipated with moisture recovering later in the weekend. Afternoon highs range from the low to mid 90s and scattered shower/storm chances across the CWA by early next week. Meanwhile, model guidance brings an area of low pressure to stall off the E Coast during the first half of next week that could allow another cold front to move down the E Seaboard and potentially into the local area around mid week. Additionally, this system could be pulled across the region from the Caribbean and into the Gulf mid to late week next week. Given the uncertainty at this time, it will just have to be monitored.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions with breezy east to northeasterly winds in place through the period. Chances of showers and isolated storms increase later in the afternoon across SW FL terminals. This could bring temporary MVFR ceilings and vis during this time.

MARINE

Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Tight pressure gradient remains over the Gulf waters and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight. Threat of seas as high as 5 to 6 feet offshore continues today with winds around 20 knots. Boating conditions should gradually improve on Friday, continuing to improve through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

High pressure in place will keep fire weather concerns out of the area. Above critical level minimum humidity values are anticipated, even though relatively drier air will be in place through Saturday. Moisture gradually returns this weekend further limiting any fire weather concerns through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 72 91 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 72 90 71 93 / 10 20 0 10 GIF 67 89 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 71 92 72 94 / 10 0 10 10 BKV 64 92 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 73 92 74 94 / 10 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.