textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue into the weekend.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms each day mainly over the interior and southwest Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

A weakening stationary frontal boundary remains stretched along the Florida/Georgia line between high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states and high pressure near Bermuda ridging westward. The frontal boundary washes through the day as the broad high pressure near Bermuda ridges west-southwest across central Florida and into the central Gulf. This will produce a southeast to southwest wind flow across the region. Abundant moisture with PWAT values between 1.7 - 2.0 inches will allow for scattered showers and storms to develop during the afternoon with a 40-60 percent chance regionwide.

By Saturday morning, the high pressure center has shifted a little farther northward and the ridge axis will extend westward across northern Florida and bring a shift in the winds to the southeast direction. This pattern will favor the development of the majority of the showers and storms over the interior and push them westward along the west coast of Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. Some boundary collisions with the west coast sea breeze could produce some stronger storms with heavy downpours. This will hopefully bring in some rainfall deficit relief to the dry conditions. Rain chances will range between 40-70 percent and will persist through the weekend.

By next Monday afternoon, the ridge will shift southward extending through central Florida and into the Gulf. This will result in variable winds over the region with sea breeze driven showers and storms prevailing on Monday and Tuesday.

Unfortunately, the hot temperatures will continue through the forecast period with highs in the low to mid 90s with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees each afternoon. Not much relief expected overnight with low temperatures also remaining quite warm and muggy only dipping into the mid 70s to around 80 each night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Outside of scattered showers and storms, VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots prevail through the period. Showers and storms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with the highest storm chances over the interior around KLAL, and over southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. Will cover this with VCTS and TEMPO groups between 18-00Z.

MARINE

Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Outside of a scattered showers and storms, pleasant boating conditions expected through the weekend. Winds will remain around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue with scattered showers and storms expected. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than 10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 79 93 79 / 40 20 40 20 FMY 95 77 95 77 / 40 30 60 30 GIF 95 76 95 76 / 50 40 60 30 SRQ 94 78 94 78 / 30 10 40 20 BKV 95 73 95 73 / 40 10 30 10 SPG 93 80 94 80 / 30 10 40 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.