textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area this afternoon.

- Slightly cooler conditions coming over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Surface high pressure northeast of Florida will continue to gradually spread south into the area, allowing easterly flow to continue to relax today and Thursday as the pressure gradient weakens. Some residual moisture holding over Florida in the wake of the trough that moved through over the weekend will allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop again today, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Drier air will then advect into the area from the east Thursday and Friday, limiting additional rain chances.

Friday through the weekend, an upper level shortwave will dig into the eastern US, dragging a weak cold front into the Florida Peninsula Saturday, passing south of the forecast area by Sunday morning. With minimal moisture ahead of the front and slow forward motion, significant rain chances are not expected with this system. The main impact from the front will be weak cold air advection dropping temperatures and dew points down a few degrees Sunday through early next week. However these lower temperatures are forecast to only be near to slightly below normal, with morning lows in the low 50s north to mid 60s south, and high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to around 80.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 843 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with winds generally below 15 knots. We will see a few showers this afternoon with the best chance to see them on station will be in SW Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 256 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Wind speeds will continue to subside today as east and southeast flow holds through the rest of the work week, with limited sea breezes turning winds onshore near the coast each afternoon. Winds will then turn to northwesterly and northerly late Friday through the weekend as a weak front pushes into the waters. Wind speeds will generally remain below headline criteria, although a few thunderstorms will be possible mainly today and tonight, causing locally higher winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Easterly flow will continue today and Thursday, but wind speeds will be lighter than they have been for the last several days. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop today, then rain chances will be more limited on Thursday. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 71 85 71 / 40 20 10 10 FMY 86 72 87 71 / 40 20 0 0 GIF 87 70 88 69 / 20 10 10 0 SRQ 85 71 84 70 / 30 20 10 0 BKV 87 69 87 68 / 30 30 10 0 SPG 82 72 82 72 / 30 20 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.