textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- While drier air aloft will limit thunderstorm chances and rain totals each day this week, the potential for strong wind gusts is higher in thunderstorms that do form. Have multiple ways to receive weather alerts.

- Afternoon max temperatures will top out in the mid 90s over the interior and the lower 90s near the coast, with heat index values maxing out around 103-109 each day this week. There is a Moderate to Extreme HeatRisk; be sure to practice good heat safety if spending prolonged periods outside.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Little, isolated showers are beginning to pop up on the radar this afternoon, mainly north of I4. Showers will likely be few and far between today as drier air aloft lingers. Heat will continue to be the main story over the next couple of days. Rain chances remain low through most of the week. Rain chances increase Friday before dropping again over the weekend.

Previous discussion...Currently at the surface, the sub- tropical ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula and will largely hold in place through early next week. In the mid\upper levels, ridging over Florida will gradually build into the southeastern US by late in the week. This pattern will favor broad subsidence that will result in above normal temperatures and unseasonably limited rain chances each day this week. Although the model consensus has backed off the extreme low PoPs that were in the forecast from 24 hours ago, rain coverage is still forecast to generally range from 10-40 percent each day through Thursday, with 7-day QPFs of around 0.10 to 1.00 inches.

Otherwise, temperatures will run above normal, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s over the interior and low 90s along the coast. With typical summer humidity and minimal rain to cool things off, heat index values will max out each day from around 103-109. As a result, a heat advisory has been issued for most of west central and southwest Florida for this afternoon, with the exception of coastal portions of the counties north of the Tampa Bay.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. A slight chance of showers expected this afternoon, though confidence was too low to include mention in TAFs. If any sites are impacted it would likely be LAL, PIE, or TPA. Light and variable winds expected overnight through tomorrow morning, turning more WNW tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Quiet, pleasant marine conditions continue through the period. Light and variable winds expected with a westward shift each afternoon as the sea breeze develops.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of moisture lingers of over the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 92 78 92 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 78 93 77 94 / 10 30 10 30 GIF 76 95 76 95 / 10 10 10 30 SRQ 78 93 77 93 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 75 93 75 93 / 0 10 10 20 SPG 80 94 80 93 / 0 0 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee- Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.