textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall today across coastal WCFL and SWFL counties, extending into central and southern interior locations.

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026 High pressure sits aloft over the southeast this afternoon while the surface ridge axis sits extends north of Florida and a weak boundary remains across the central peninsula. PWs are a bit lower today (2.17 inches at KTBW this morning) but still high enough to support showers and storms. Boundary layer flow today is more southeasterly and this will help keep the west coast sea breeze boundary closer to the I-75 corridor as we head through the rest of the day. Showers and storms have already started developing east of us (as well as a few showers with the west coast sea breeze) and the general trend through the rest of the afternoon and evening will be toward west Florida with coverage peaking this evening. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there is the potential for a few of these areas to see 2 plus inches of rain, with heavy downpours leading to some flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas and WPC has highlighted an area from around Tampa Bay southward for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall due to this.

Rain chances will be slightly lower for tomorrow, but isolated pockets of heavy rainfall will remain possible. Southeast/south flow then continues Friday through the weekend, with a continued heavy rainfall threat each day. For early to mid next week, winds become more easterly, which will still favor the west coast for the highest rain chances, but these chances will end up being lower (relatively speaking) as PWs fall below 2 inches and close to 1.5 inches at some points.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026 Scattered storms are already near area terminals this afternoon and these are expected to increase in coverage through the rest of the afternoon and evening as they generally consolidate near the west coast. Activity will eventually diminish and move offshore past 02/03Z, then a quiet overnight is expected. A similar pattern is forecast for tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026 Light southeast winds will remain over the waters for the next several days except with a turn onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly late in the day as storms move generally toward the west.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. South/southeast flow will continue for the next couple of days, bringing scattered to numerous storms each afternoon and evening, focused mainly across the western part of the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 90 78 90 / 40 40 20 80 FMY 77 92 77 92 / 40 60 30 80 GIF 75 93 76 93 / 30 50 30 80 SRQ 76 92 77 91 / 30 50 40 70 BKV 73 92 73 91 / 40 50 20 80 SPG 78 90 78 89 / 30 40 40 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.