textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold temperatures and frost possible early this morning away from the coast.

- Even colder air arrives Saturday night, with widespread hard freeze conditions and low wind chills each morning into early next week.

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions and a high risk of strong rip currents at area beaches this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1133 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Canadian high pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida today with continued cold conditions. The day will begin with sub freezing temperatures across the nature coast and near to slightly above freezing temperatures central and south away from the coast. Widespread frost is likely across the nature coast with areas of frost central...and possibly as far south as interior Charlotte county...with patchy frost possible in northeast Lee county. Mostly sunny skies on Thursday but continued very cool with high temperatures generally in the 60s.

The area of high pressure will begin to move away from the region tonight with temperatures beginning to moderate...but conditions will remain cold with lows in the mid to upper 30s north...lower to mid 40s central...and mid to upper 40s south. Areas of frost will develop across the nature coast during the late night/early morning hours.

Temperatures will warm a bit on Friday as the airmass continues to modify with high temperatures in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Mostly sunny skies for a majority of the forecast area, but could see an increase in cloudiness across southwest Florida as an area of low pressure begins to develop off the southeast Florida coast along a strong baroclinic zone. This will be in response to a strong U/L trough/disturbance that is expected to dig sharply over the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. Simultaneously, strong Canadian high pressure will build down over the Central Plains with an associated leading cold front expected to push across the Florida peninsula on Saturday...with a chance of showers Friday night and Saturday across the forecast area. The area of low pressure east of the state will intensify and lift northeast with redevelopment off the Carolina coast late Saturday and Saturday night.

A very tight pressure gradient will develop over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula Saturday and Saturday night in the wake of the front...a result of the significant pressure difference between the rapidly intensifying coastal storm off the Carolina coast and the strong Canadian high pressure system over the Central Plains. As the cold front moves across the forecast area on Saturday, temperatures will likely be falling (or at best holding steady) across the region during the afternoon hours. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH will develop across west central and southwest Florida with higher gusts likely, especially near the coast.

There will be a number of hazards associated with this sequence of events that run from low probability of occurrence to a very high probability of occurrence. Starting with the highest likelihood of occurrence:

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop over the weekend and a Gale Watch may be issued later today. A gale warning will likely be issued on Friday for the coastal waters for the period of Saturday and Saturday night, and potentially into Sunday morning. Also, can't rule out a few gusts to storm force.

- The arctic air will also usher in the coldest temperatures of the year. Freeze warnings will likely be needed for much of the forecast area both Saturday night and Sunday night. A hard freeze will be possible across the nature coast Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the lower to mid 20s each night. Temperatures across the interior are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s both nights...with lower to mid 30s near the coast and across southwest Florida. Gusty northwest winds will create wind chills Saturday night in the teens across the nature coast...with single digits possible mainly across Levy and Citrus counties. Wind chills are expected to be in the teens to lower 20s across the interior. and generally in the 20s elsewhere. The wind is expected to taper off Sunday night, with wind chills generally about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature.

- Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see some record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning across the region...some low max temperature records set on Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents are expected to develop Saturday through Sunday. There is also a low to moderate probability of high surf.

- The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county to run 1 to 2 feet above astronomical normal tide levels Saturday and Saturday night. This is also in the low to moderate probability of occurrence.

- The strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to develop over the eastern Gulf on Saturday and Saturday night. With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal waters...Gulf effect type light showers. The backside or northern extent of the cloud shield could see temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become light mixed snow/rain showers or snow showers/flurries. Trajectories would indicate that the clouds may advect locally onshore...with the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation from Citrus to Pinellas/Hillsborough counties. This is a low probability event...but not out of the realm of possibility. It's common in scenarios like this that drizzle or very light rain gets reported as snow...when in fact surface temperatures don't support that possibility. Clear skies expected Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to climb into the mid to upper 40s across northern and central areas...around 50 to the lower 50s south. Another frigid night Sunday night as mentioned above with most areas away from the coast or extreme southwest Florida in the 20s. Again, record cold temperatures will be possible both Sunday and Sunday night.

The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but still another cold day across the region with high temperatures from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the nature coast, and around freezing to slightly above freezing across the interior...with upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast.

The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear skies each day.

MARINE

Issued at 1133 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through Friday with relatively benign conditions. As mentioned above, a cold front will push across the waters on Saturday with a strong Canadian area of high pressure building over the waters in the wake of the front. Gale conditions likely developing on Saturday and Saturday night, and can't rule out a few gusts to storm force. Winds will come down a bit on Sunday, but advisory level winds and seas will likely persist. Winds will subside Sunday night, but it will likely take a longer period of time for the seas to subside.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1133 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Very dry air will remain across the region today with critical relative humidity levels, generally in the 20 to 25 percent range this afternoon. The significant fire potential for west central and southwest Florida remains low and sustained winds are expected to remain below 15 MPH. For these reasons, an RFW will not be needed.

Moisture will recover tomorrow and minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 66 46 70 51 / 0 0 0 40 FMY 71 50 70 54 / 0 0 10 30 GIF 66 45 72 50 / 0 0 0 20 SRQ 67 46 70 52 / 0 0 0 40 BKV 66 34 70 42 / 0 0 0 30 SPG 66 51 70 55 / 0 0 0 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee- Inland Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.