textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- High chances of rain continue through midweek.

- Gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue through at least Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

UPDATE

Issued at 850 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will continue to move east across the region exiting to the east by mid-afternoon. Behind this activity it looks like it we will only see isolated to low end scattered shower chances through tonight with skies remaining mostly cloudy. Have tweaked rain chances up some for this morning, otherwise remainder of forecast looks on track.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 850 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions will continue into early this afternoon with showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm moving across the TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are then expected to persist through tonight with a few more showers possible, but nothing widespread. Northeast winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 to 35 knots this afternoon into early tonight, then diminish to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts later this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Currently at the surface, the recent surface front is stalling out over southern Florida and will slowly limp south and out of the area today and tonight. Behind the front, an upper/mid level shortwave is passing west to east across the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, keeping deep moisture and unsettled weather in place. This feature has been supporting lingering showers and a few storms overnight, with periods of rain expected to continue throughout the day today. The rainy pattern will continue on Wednesday and Thursday as a surface low develops east of Florida and continues to pump deep moisture into the area. While rain chances will be fairly high across the area each day, the highest chances and rain totals today through Thursday will generally be over the interior and east of the forecast area.

Apart from the rain, the surface high pressure to the north is setting up breezy northeast winds this week. The northeast winds and cloudy skies are combining to bring in cooler conditions today and Wednesday, with afternoon high temperatures running about 5-10 degrees below normal. Temperatures will warm back up Thursday through the end of the week as sunnier skies return.

This weekend through early next week, the surface ridge will shift south into Florida, favoring warm and stable conditions. Afternoon high temperatures will build back up into the 80s across the area, with lower rain chances and sunny skies.

MARINE

Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

High pressure building in north of the waters in the wake of the recent cold front will keep breezy winds in place through the rest of the week, with winds gusting to near gale force at times. The Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for the coastal waters north of Englewood, and will expand to include the southern marine zones this afternoon. Winds and seas will begin to improve Thursday night through the weekend, although easterly winds could occasional surge back to exercise caution or advisory levels at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

No humidity concerns as deep moisture brings numerous to widespread showers and a few storms today and Wednesday. Breezy winds will produce high dispersion indices each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 65 77 66 / 90 20 70 40 FMY 80 66 80 67 / 70 20 60 30 GIF 74 65 75 65 / 80 30 80 50 SRQ 76 64 78 66 / 90 20 60 30 BKV 73 60 75 61 / 90 20 70 40 SPG 76 68 78 68 / 90 20 60 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.