textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue into midweek.

- Breezy areawide with a slight chance of showers mainly across the interior and southwest Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Upper level trough off the U.S. east coast will drift east over the next few days with ridging building over the region mid to late week. At the surface, high pressure will hold over the eastern U.S. early in the week then also begin to drift east out into the Atlantic Ocean during midweek. However, it will continue to ridge into the southeast states keeping a rather tight pressure gradient across the Florida peninsula.

For the rest of today into tonight, breezy northeast flow will continue to bring some Atlantic moisture westward leading to scattered light showers/sprinkles, especially over the interior and southwest Florida. This general pattern will continue into Monday night.

As we move through Tuesday some deeper moisture will spread across the southern half of the region, generally south of I-4. This moisture is expected to hold over this area through Wednesday leading to a better chance of showers across southern parts of the forecast area both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Late in the week into next weekend the east to northeast flow continues with some additional moisture spreading across the entire area leading to a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm each day, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the week with lows in the 60s to lower 70s, and daytime highs mostly in the 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Scattered light showers/sprinkles will continue to move southwest across the region this afternoon and evening and these could cause some brief MVFR conditions. Some other patches of MVFR ceilings will be possible early tonight, otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period. Gusty northeast winds will continue at 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Strong winds and rough seas will keep hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters into midweek, with near-gale force wind gusts through Monday evening. Small craft operators should remain in port until conditions improve later in the week. The persistent offshore wind flow will also cause tides to run below astronomical levels through much of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Gusty northeast winds and mostly dry conditions, aside from a few light showers/sprinkles will continue through early this week. No fire weather hazards are expected through the period as sufficient low level moisture remains in place keeping minimum relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 84 67 84 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 71 86 71 86 / 10 0 0 10 GIF 68 85 68 85 / 20 10 0 10 SRQ 69 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 67 84 63 85 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 70 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.