textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainy conditions will continue through today.

- Gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue through early on Friday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)

Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Showers will continue to develop and training westward this afternoon and evening. High pressure stretching along the Sea Board and an area of low pressure south will keep a tight gradient across the peninsula today and Friday. As frontal boundary associated with the low continues to move south it will suppress moisture. This will result in lower rain chances through the period. At the same time, tight gradient will continue to support windy conditions today and portions of Friday. Most of the activity today should dissipate before reaching the coast, but some ambitious updrafts may live long enough to make it rain along the coast. Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 60, except some areas along the Nature Coast with lows in the upper 50s.

For Friday, high pressure continues to build and move south. This will keep rain chances low with afternoon highs climbing into upper 80s.

LONG TERM (SAT-WED)

Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Going into the weekend, ridge stays in place keeping very warm and dry conditions. Rain chances will remain low though the week which will not help with the current drought conditions. Temperature will gradually increase into the 90s by midweek. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s making it feel fairly comfortable for Florida.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail with periods of MVFR cigs as showers move near terminals this afternoon and evening. Rain chances diminish after around 00Z. Gusty easterly winds decrease overnight, but will return during the day on Friday. No rain is anticipated towards the end of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A frontal boundary south across southern portions of the state will continue to support advisory level winds to the Gulf waters through early on Friday. THerefore, a small craft advisory remains in effect for all waters through early Friday morning. The front will gradually dissipate Thursday night and Friday as high pressure settles over the region, which will allow winds to subside below advisory levels, but will remain elevated. Evening easterly surge of wind may reach advisory levels for several hours the next couple of days.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

High pressure builds over the area through the period. Tight pressure gradient will relax going into the weekend allowing winds to decrease. At the same time, moisture will decrease with minimum humidity values dropping to near critical along the Nature Coast by next week. Very warm conditions will be in place across fire districts a gradual warm up is anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 64 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 66 86 64 86 / 10 10 0 0 GIF 63 82 62 84 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 63 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 58 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 69 85 69 86 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.