textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall today across coastal WCFL and SWFL counties, extending into central and southern interior locations.

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Light winds this morning become south/southeast before turning onshore this afternoon with the sea breeze. Best rain chances are denoted with TEMPO groups and confidence is fairly high in seeing impacts. Rain moves offshore after 02/03Z then a quiet overnight is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Abundant tropical moisture remains over the area supporting daily scattered to numerous showers and storms through the weekend into early next week. A diffuse surface boundary remains over the south/central peninsula this morning serving as a weak convergent boundary and focus for a few lingering clouds and earlier showers, but otherwise is expected to dissipate over the next day or so. Deep layered ridging centered north of the area today will shift eastward late week into the weekend allowing boundary layer flow to veer a bit more southerly, before becoming re-established north of the area early next week allowing flow to shift back more easterly. PWATs sampled in Tuesday evening's KTBW 00Z sounding registered at just over 2.3 inches, firmly above the 90th percentile for climo, and ensemble guidance suggest anomalous moisture will continue across the area through the weekend. Given the expected setup will favor W FL as the focus for highest rain chances each day, an accompanying threat of flooding is favored for much of the area, particularly from around the Tampa Bay area southward through SWFL extending into western interior areas.

For today, HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities highlight a notable potential for 2+ inch rainfall totals for areas along and just east of the I-75 corridor from the southern Nature Coast southward through WCFL into SWFL, with a likelihood of highest totals (3+ inches) focusing generally across Hillsborough, Manatee and Sarasota counties. Plentiful moisture coupled with forecast soundings indicating S/SE 0-3km flow around 5 knots suggest the sea breeze will likely remain confined to coastal counties, with its interaction with the prevailing flow leading to slow-moving convection capable of producing heavy downpours over short periods posing the threat for flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas. Accordingly, WPC has highlighted much of WC/SWFL under a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. Timing will favor the afternoon through early evening hours before activity gradually diminishes this evening into tonight.

Slightly lower overall rain chances for W FL on Thursday with the highest coverage shifting largely into SWFL, and while isolated pockets of 2+ inches will remain possible, overall threat of flooding is lower, with a smaller areal footprint compared to today. S/SE flow continues Fri-Sun along with continued threat of heavy rainfall and potential minor flooding across most of the area. Forecast 5-day QPF totals to include the weekend indicate the majority of the area can expect 1-2 inches, with a swath of 3+ inches possible across the coastal counties including localized amounts totaling 5+ inches. Given the repeated daily rounds of showers and storms, soils will become increasingly unable to absorb additional rainfall, particularly over short periods, increasing the threat of flooding, and a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) of excessive rainfall is highlighted across WC/SWFL for Saturday and Sunday (Days 4 and 5).

High pressure north of the area early next week will shift winds more easterly, continuing to favor the W FL peninsula for afternoon and evening convection. Overall rain chances decrease, however, as PWATs decrease to around 2 inches or less and much closer to climo, while SAL currently moving west over the central Atlantic potentially advects over the area further limiting convection. Temps through the forecast period remain near average, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows in the 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Deep moisture will hold over the coastal waters through the weekend, resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing each day. Generally easterly and southeasterly flow will hold through the weekend, turning onshore in the afternoon with the sea breeze. No headlines are currently anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low as relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels. E/SE through S/SE flow through the remainder of the week will favor scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, focused mainly across the W FL peninsula.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 91 78 / 70 40 50 30 FMY 92 76 92 77 / 80 50 70 30 GIF 93 75 93 75 / 80 40 60 20 SRQ 92 76 92 76 / 70 40 50 30 BKV 92 73 92 73 / 80 40 50 20 SPG 90 78 90 79 / 70 40 50 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.