textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing rain chances through midweek.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A slow moving cold front is pushing through North Florida this morning. As the boundary approaches the moisture has been increasing with our morning sounding showing PWs is now around 1.4. This will allow for an increased chance for afternoon and evening seabreeze thunderstorms mainly in the interior portions of the CWA today.

As we get into the overnight period the front will stall over the area and remain there until Thursday. This will bring cloudy and windy conditions through Thursday with gust up to 25 mph. We will also see high shower chances during this period however this does not mean we will be seeing high rainfall totals. Showers will be spotty through the 72 hour period with most of it being light rain with totals around 0.5 to 1 inches over the three days. The overcast skies will also keep temperatures below average with highs in the 70s each day.

The front will dissipate Thursday night allow clearer skies and calmer winds to return. We will also transition into a drier weather pattern with only isolated rain showers chances from Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will also be on the rise with widespread mid 80's by Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A stalled out front will make for some messy weather over the state through the TAF period. Best chance of storms this afternoon and evening will be inland and across SW Florida however they will be possible at all terminals. Models continue to show a batch of MVFR and IFR CIGS and showers pushing through during the early morning hours on Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Winds will be increasing through the afternoon and evening hours out of the northeast as a slow moving cold front starts to push through. This front will be stalling over Central Florida from Tuesday through Thursday. During this time period we will see gusty winds around 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30 knots. We will also see spotty light showers. The front will start to dissipate on Friday. As it does so winds will slowly start to drop to around 10 to 15 knots by Friday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A front will stall over the area overnight. This will bring breezy and humid conditions with spotty light showers through Thursday. By Friday this front will dissipate as drier air filters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 66 76 65 / 40 70 70 30 FMY 87 68 81 67 / 60 60 70 40 GIF 86 66 75 65 / 80 80 70 40 SRQ 85 66 76 65 / 30 70 70 30 BKV 86 60 73 60 / 60 80 60 30 SPG 85 70 77 69 / 30 70 60 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.