textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight rain chances Thursday, then higher rain chances Sunday into Monday.

- Late night and early morning fog will be possible on land each day into the weekend.

- Sea fog will be possible from around Tampa Bay north off the Nature Coast tonight into Thursday morning, and again over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

An upper level disturbance will move across the region today and tonight with an associated weak cool front drifting south into north Florida before stalling over the region Thursday and Friday. This boundary will bring some additional clouds to the area, and could see a few light showers here and there later tonight and Thursday. The other thing this boundary will due is help to pool some of the low level moisture that will be moving into the area and this will likely lead to some fog the next few nights into the early morning hours on land. Also with the higher dew point air moving over the rather cool gulf waters there will be the potential for some sea fog off the Nature Coast north of Tampa Bay later today and tonight drifting southeast ahead of the boundary possibly making it into Tampa Bay late tonight into Thursday morning.

Over the weekend an upper level trough and shortwave energy will move across the southern U.S. with the stalled boundary moving back north away from the region as a warm front. Southerly winds will increase ahead of this system bringing deeper moisture northward ahead of a cold front Sunday leading to increasing shower chances and possibly a few thunderstorms. The highest rain chances appear to be from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night based on the latest guidance, and at this time it looks like there could be some decent rainfall amounts over an inch, especially from around the Interstate 4 corridor northward. On Monday there will be a few lingering showers, but drier air will begin to move in from the northwest as high pressure builds in. However, unlike the other systems during the last few weeks, this one is Pacific in origin so very little if any cool down is expected early next week with just some drier air returning.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Some patchy shallow fog is expected this morning, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail today into early tonight. Late tonight into Thursday morning more areas of fog are expected and some of this fog could become locally dense causing IFR/local LIFR conditions. Light winds early this morning will become southwest at 7 to 11 knots by this afternoon, then become light once again after sunset tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Rather quiet marine conditions will continue through the week with the only concern being the potential for sea fog development, especially off the Nature Coast north of Tampa Bay. Otherwise, southerly winds begin to increase Sunday as a cold front moves toward the waters, likely reaching advisory criteria Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this boundary Sunday into Sunday night, then winds veer to northerly behind the front and diminish Monday with pleasant marine conditions returning early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Weak surface high pressure will remain over the area through the end of the week with temperatures and humidity continuing to moderate. A couple of showers will be possible Thursday as a weakening frontal boundary moves in from the north, otherwise dry conditions are expected. Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels through the remainder of the week with sustained 20 foot winds less than 15 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 75 59 75 56 / 0 10 20 0 FMY 78 57 78 58 / 0 0 10 0 GIF 78 58 78 55 / 0 0 30 0 SRQ 72 57 74 55 / 0 0 20 0 BKV 76 53 77 48 / 0 10 20 0 SPG 73 61 74 58 / 0 10 20 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.