textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing rain chances through midweek.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A cold front currently draped over the panhandle will continue to slowly move southeast over the area today before stalling over south Florida Tuesday. Deep moisture will accompany the front as it lingers, increasing rain chances through most of the week, especially for central FL and the East Coast. WPC has placed inland portions of the forecast area in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for excessive rainfall. The risk highlights the potential for heavy downpours that could lead to localized flooding. Along with increased rain chances, cooler temperatures will also be expected. High temperatures are expected to drop a couple degrees below normal for a few days to start the week, with some areas staying in the 70s through Thursday.

As the cold front stalls over south Florida, a high pressure system to the north will lead to the pressure gradient tightening up over the FL peninsula midweek. This will lead to strong, gusty northeast wind. The gradient will ease up as the weekend approaches. Rain chances begin to diminish into the weekend as well as dry air moves over the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions mostly prevail through into early morning. However, some early morning patchy fog could develop, especially inland. Though confidence was too low to include mention in the TAFs. A cold front will begin to move over the area today into tomorrow, bringing possible low (MVFR-IFR) ceilings and visibilities as showers and storms move through. Behind the front, winds will increase and shift more northeasterly.

MARINE

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as the week goes on as a cold front moves over the area and lingers for a few days. Between this cold front stalling out to the south and a high pressure system over the NE, a tight pressure gradient will lead to advisory level, if not Gale force, winds over the water beginning Tuesday and persisting through Thursday. Showers and storms will also be possible over the waters to today and tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Ample moisture will linger over the area through the week as a cold front moves over the area and stalls out over south Florida. Gusty winds will lead to high dispersion values throughout the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 65 75 66 / 40 70 60 20 FMY 86 67 81 66 / 50 60 70 30 GIF 85 65 75 65 / 80 70 70 30 SRQ 85 66 78 65 / 40 70 60 30 BKV 86 59 74 60 / 50 70 60 20 SPG 85 68 78 68 / 40 70 60 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.