textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through at least the next week.

- Rain chances increase each day through the weekend, with mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms possible each day into next week.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 724 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Surface high pressure sitting north of Florida today will shift east into the western Atlantic tonight and Saturday and will hold in place through late next week. Under this pattern, light northeast winds today will keep a fairly dry air mass in place, with a few showers or storms possible this afternoon and evening, mainly over southwest Florida. As the sub-tropical ridge shifts to a position northeast of Florida during the weekend where it will hold through most of next week, an east to southeast flow regime will setup, advecting in increased moisture and allowing for more numerous rain coverage. Under easterly flow, the sea breeze collision and resultant highest rain chances will generally be along and near the Interstate 75 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

As for temperatures, the easterly flow will allow temperatures to heat up to a few degrees above normal for mid May, with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

High pressure north of the coastal waters will slide into the western Atlantic just northeast of Florida by Saturday, with north and northeast winds today becoming more easterly/southeasterly by Saturday, turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze. East and southeast flow will hold through the weekend and the first half of next week. Wind speeds will generally remain below headline criteria, but daily thunderstorms could shift west into the coastal waters during the afternoon and early evening hours, producing locally higher winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Relative humidity will drop to critically low levels this afternoon, mainly over the Nature Coast counties south through around the Tampa Bay. However, wind speeds will not be fast enough to cause Red Flag conditions. Moisture will increase through the weekend, with a few showers or storms possible this afternoon over southwest Florida, and scattered showers and storms possible across much of the area Saturday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 75 92 75 / 0 10 40 10 FMY 94 73 94 74 / 10 10 20 20 GIF 92 72 91 72 / 0 0 30 10 SRQ 91 73 92 73 / 0 0 30 10 BKV 92 69 94 69 / 0 10 30 10 SPG 93 75 93 76 / 0 0 30 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.