textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing temperatures this morning from around I-4 northward, with dangerous feels like temperatures areawide.

- Hazardous marine conditions continuing into the middle of the week.

- Pronounced warming trend latter half of the week with rain chances returning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

U/L trough remains anchored over the C/E U.S. this morning while at the surface high pressure is centered over the NW Gulf. Resulting northerly flow into the peninsula has continued weak cold air advection locally leading to below normal temps today. Freeze Warning remains in effect through 9 AM this morning for Polk and Inland Hillsborough counties northward, with the Cold Weather Advisory similarly through 9 AM areawide. Despite sunny skies only expect afternoon highs to warm into the 50s/60s, roughly 10-15 degrees below normal. A reinforcing high drops across the Plains later today then gradually drifts east across the Srn/SE U.S. through Tuesday before moving into the W Atlantic on Wednesday, with only gradually moderating temps and continued morning freeze/frost potential for Nature Coast into northern WCFL locations on Tuesday when a Freeze Watch remains in place for Nature Coast counties, then limited to a smaller section of the Nature Coast on Wednesday. Occasionally breezy afternoon conditions remain possible through Wednesday as a result of the tightened gradient over the area as the high treks eastward north of the area, while dry conditions persist as the air mass slowly moderates. Afternoon highs warm into the 70s/lower 80s over the latter half of the week, with a frontal system moving into the area bringing a chance of showers on Thursday, with additional hints from ensemble guidance of unsettled conditions with low but non-zero PoPs lingering through the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Dry VFR expected through the period with northerly winds generally around 10 knots or so before diminishing to 5-10 knots in the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to subside early this morning, however a tightened pressure gradient as a result of high pressure slowly moving eastward north of the waters will keep winds around Exercise Caution levels, and possibly Advisory levels at times, through mid week. Another chance of rain arrives on Thursday as another frontal system moves across the waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Northerly winds continue to filter cold dry air into the area this morning with widespread critical RHs expected this afternoon, but winds below 15 mph and Low SFP risk should limit overall fire concerns. The air mass gradually moderates with moisture recovery limiting critical RHs to areas along and north of I-4 on Tuesday, then remaining above critical threshold areawide for the remainder of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 60 40 66 48 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 64 43 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 60 38 65 47 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 61 41 69 49 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 59 29 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 60 45 66 53 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk until 11 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.