textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions through early morning before gradually improving.

- Dry conditions continue remainder of the week before slight uptick in rain chances this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Broad ridging aloft continues across the C/E U.S. this morning with W/NW flow locally, while surface ridging extends across the E Seaboard into the SE U.S./N Gulf with easterly boundary layer flow locally. Dry conditions persist although gradual moistening is expected over the next few days as Atlantic moisture advects across the peninsula. A series of shortwaves moving across the C/E U.S. late week into the weekend flatten the ridge aloft while an associated surface frontal boundary sinks into the SE U.S. over the weekend. Boundary layer flow gradually veers to E/SE late week, veering further to W/SW over the weekend as the surface ridge axis sinks south across the peninsula as the approaching frontal boundary stalls north of the local area. Resulting uptick in moisture will spur higher PoPs this weekend, particularly over the interior where isolated to scattered showers and a storm briefly return to the forecast, with highest chances on Sunday before diminishing early next week. Temps gradually warm from the low/mid 80s this afternoon, to the mid/upper 80s by late week, and into the upper 80s/lower 90s over the weekend and early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Dry VFR through the period with easterly flow generally 8-12 knots with higher gusts late morning through early evening. Immediate coastal terminals PIE/SRQ may turn onshore for a few hours late afternoon into early evening before returning to easterly.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Hazardous early morning marine conditions gradually improving through the day. East to southeast winds continue through the remainder of the week with high pressure ridging north of the waters, then shift to south and southwest over the weekend as the ridging shifts south ahead of a frontal boundary that stalls north of the waters, bringing a slight chance of showers and storms to the northern waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Gradual moisture recovery expected through the remainder of the week as flow remains E/SE with ridging north of the area. A few hours of critical RHs remain possible the next few afternoons, mainly north of I-4, however winds will remain below critical criteria. Winds become W/SW over the weekend as a cold front stalls north of the local area and the ridging sinks southward, with chance of showers and a few storms returning to the forecast for the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 84 65 85 67 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 85 64 85 64 / 0 0 10 20 GIF 82 61 85 62 / 0 0 20 10 SRQ 85 64 84 64 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 85 56 86 58 / 0 0 10 10 SPG 85 69 86 69 / 0 0 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.