textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions through the weekend.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

The upper trough down the Eastern Seaboard has shunted the upper ridge westward to Tex/Mex region. As the upper trough lifts NEward a weak and mainly dry cold front currently in N FL will slowly move down the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and tonight. Limited moisture and instability is expected to limit isolated afternoon PoPs to S interior and southwest Florida zones. High pressure building into the region behind the front is producing a tight pressure gradient and gusty NE winds that will move down the state through the day, tonight and into Sunday. The front is expected to stall over S FL with E flow off the Atlantic overrunning the remnant frontal boundary for mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly south of I-4 on both Sunday and Monday.

Through mid week, somewhat drier air aloft to remain in place with reduced rain chances. As high pressure remains in the W Atlantic the persistent E-SE LL flow will increase moisture with a chance seabreeze PoPs into next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) VFR conditions early this afternoon with a weak front moving down the FL Peninsula. Behind the front, gusty NE winds to increase in C FL shortly then MVFR cigs moving from nr JAX to DAB to move into the area by 00Z continuing thru Sunday morning before lifting slightly. Also, guidance showing ISOLD SHRA in SW FL sites this evening to keep VCSH ongoing.

MARINE

A tight pressure gradient is now over the NE Gulf with gusty offshore winds and building seas producing hazardous marine conditions the rest of today through tonight and into Sunday with advisory level winds/seas. High pressure settles into the region with winds and seas slowly subsiding next week.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure building into the region is producing breezy northeast winds through Sunday but min RHs are expected to remain above critical levels. Increased winds are producing locally high dispersion values as well. Some slightly drier air will build into the region mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 66 82 68 84 / 0 20 10 50 FMY 67 83 66 85 / 30 50 10 60 GIF 66 79 66 83 / 20 30 10 50 SRQ 67 83 67 85 / 0 30 10 50 BKV 59 81 61 85 / 10 20 10 50 SPG 70 83 71 85 / 0 20 10 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.