textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 300 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours today, then at almost anytime Thursday through at least next Tuesday.

- An increasingly wet pattern is expected late in the week through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Ridging will remain off the southeast U.S. coast today with the breezy southeast flow this morning shifting to south to southwest this afternoon. Some drier air will move into the coastal areas from the south this morning, then moisture will increase during the afternoon and evening allowing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea breeze boundary. However, with the flow becoming more south to southwest the convection will remain mostly over inland areas, and not move back toward the coast like the last few days.

For Thursday through Saturday, the flow will become more southwest to west, sea breeze regime 4 on Thursday, then 5 on Friday and Saturday as upper level troughing develops over the eastern states suppressing the ridge south and east. Deep moisture that has been linger over the central gulf the last few days will spread eastward over the Florida peninsula during this time leading to more clouds and higher rain chances. The rain chances will be at almost anytime on these days, but the highest PoPs will be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula during each afternoon and evening.

During the second half of the weekend into early next week the global models continue to show different scenarios for our area. The upper level troughing will linger somewhere over the eastern U.S. or western Atlantic Ocean with plenty of moisture continuing across the region. Therefore, the chance for showers and thunderstorms at almost anytime should continue, with the highest PoPs over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula each afternoon and evening.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning as daytime heating gets underway, then more MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible later this afternoon and evening in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with southeast winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts this morning, then shifting to south to southwest this afternoon. Winds will return to southeast at 4 to 8 knots later this evening. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

South to southeast winds across coastal waters today will shift to southwest to west for the rest of the week into the weekend. Deep tropical moisture will move over the waters Thursday and persist into the weekend leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms at almost anytime.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Ample moisture will remain across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. While there could be some high dispersions over the next couple days with breezy conditions, the overall fire weather concerns are low through the upcoming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 88 77 / 30 50 50 30 FMY 93 76 90 76 / 50 50 60 30 GIF 93 75 90 74 / 70 70 70 30 SRQ 92 75 89 76 / 20 40 40 30 BKV 92 72 89 72 / 40 50 60 30 SPG 92 77 89 78 / 20 50 50 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.