textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

..New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and into early next week.

- Better chance of rain middle/late next week - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026 An U/L ridge will build over the forecast area today and tomorrow increasing large scale subsidence over the region. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to extend across the Florida peninsula with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will continue to create east to southeast boundary layer flow into early next week. The west coast sea breeze boundary will push inland about 20 to 40 miles each afternoon and will be the focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms...with the boundary/storms likely pushing back to the west during the evening hours. Boundary collisions will likely be delayed until late in the day with showers/storms increasing in areal coverage during the late afternoon and evening. Storms will move offshore over the coastal waters by midnight each day. Slight differences in deep layer moisture will impact areal coverage/pops each day into early next week with highest pops over the coastal counties. Skies will become partly cloudy after midnight across the forecast area.

Pattern change expected middle of next week as the U/L ridge exits to the east and a weak U/L trough moves over the forecast area. The surface ridge axis will gradually sink south toward the Florida Straits. This will allow boundary layer winds to shift to the west to southwest...and combined with the U/L trough, will create deeper west/southwest flow which will advect higher PCPW airmass over the region. U/L energy (with daily details to far out to discern attm) associated with the U/L trough will enhance large scale lift increasing areal coverage of showers/storms as it taps the better deep layer moisture profile. This pattern generally favors showers/storms to develop over the coastal waters during the overnight hours advecting onshore each day with fairly widespread activity expected. Can't rule out locally heavy rain, especially over the coastal counties mainly from the Tampa Bay area and north, as training could develop off the increasingly warmer waters of the Gulf. Will continue to monitor evolution of this pattern change over the next several days.

The offshore flow through early next week will continue to produce above normal daily temperatures across west central and southwest Florida, with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. As the flow becomes increasingly onshore mid/late next and combined with increased cloud cover/shower activity, max temps should drop back down near climatic normals. However, overnight lows will generally be above climatic normals due to the flow off the relatively warmer Gulf waters.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026 VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the night under partly cloudy to high broken cloud cover. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop during the mid/late afternoon hours on Saturday, and will extend into the evening hours. Best chance of storms will be vcnty PGD/FMY/RSW during the late afternoon hours...and vcnty PIE/SRQ/TPA/LAL during the early evening hours...creating LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. Wind gusts to 40 MPH will be possible with a few stronger storms.

MARINE

Issued at 1214 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters into early next week with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each day which will push offshore during the evening hours causing locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1214 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold across the forecast area for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 77 90 77 / 50 60 60 50 FMY 92 76 93 76 / 60 50 60 30 GIF 93 75 92 75 / 60 60 60 30 SRQ 91 75 91 76 / 40 60 50 40 BKV 94 72 93 72 / 60 60 70 50 SPG 92 77 92 78 / 40 60 50 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.