textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue through the week.

- There is a slight chance of showers and storms today, then increasing chances mid to late week.

- Patchy fog is possible the next couple of mornings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Upper level ridging extending from the central Gulf to the Bahamas will remain over the area through the week. On the surface, a weak area of low pressure is located off the mid-Atlantic states with a weak front extending southwestward into the Carolinas. This feature will track northeastward and remain north of the area, while surface high pressure ridges across Florida and into the eastern Gulf. This will keep a predominant easterly flow over the forecast area through the week. Moisture will increase through the week, resulting in a increasing chances for showers and a stray storm during the late afternoon and evening starting Wednesday. By Friday morning, the surface high will be located near Bermuda, continuing to ridge westward over the southeast U.S. and into the northeastern Gulf. Easterly flow will continue into the weekend with a chance of showers and a stray storm persisting. Warm temperatures around 8-10 degrees above average can be expected through the forecast period. Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

VFR and rain-free conditions with winds less than 12 knots will prevail at all terminals through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 126 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

High pressure ridges across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters producing easterly winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through the week. A chance of showers and a stray storm during the late afternoon and evening will be possible starting Wednesday and continuing through the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

High pressure ridging across the region will keep a predominant easterly wind over the region with humidity values remaining above critical levels. A chance of showers and a stray storm possible mid to late week. Some patchy fog possible for the next couple of mornings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 84 65 86 68 / 0 0 30 10 FMY 87 66 88 67 / 20 20 40 10 GIF 83 65 86 66 / 10 0 40 10 SRQ 83 65 85 66 / 10 0 30 10 BKV 85 58 89 61 / 10 0 20 0 SPG 83 67 85 69 / 10 0 30 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.