textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing rain chances through midweek.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

UPDATE

Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to linger this evening as anomalously deep moisture pools in the vicinity of the slow moving frontal boundary across the central Florida peninsula. While precipitation chances will generally linger tonight, overall coverage will decrease slightly overnight for a brief period before increasing once again early Tuesday morning as upper support increases with the approach of a mid level trough. This next wave of activity tomorrow morning should mostly be beneficial given the ongoing drought but locally heavier rainfall may cause very isolated hydro issues particularly in any poor drainage and/or urban areas. Only updates needed this evening were just some minor adjustments to PoPs based on recent radar trends but otherwise the ongoing forecast is in good shape.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A slow moving cold front is pushing through North Florida this morning. As the boundary approaches the moisture has been increasing with our morning sounding showing PWs is now around 1.4. This will allow for an increased chance for afternoon and evening seabreeze thunderstorms mainly in the interior portions of the CWA today.

As we get into the overnight period the front will stall over the area and remain there until Thursday. This will bring cloudy and windy conditions through Thursday with gust up to 25 mph. We will also see high shower chances during this period however this does not mean we will be seeing high rainfall totals. Showers will be spotty through the 72 hour period with most of it being light rain with totals around 0.5 to 1 inches over the three days. The overcast skies will also keep temperatures below average with highs in the 70s each day.

The front will dissipate Thursday night allow clearer skies and calmer winds to return. We will also transition into a drier weather pattern with only isolated rain showers chances from Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will also be on the rise with widespread mid 80's by Sunday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 755 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Several rounds of SHRA/TSRA expected throughout some of the TAF period with the first round expected to ease somewhat by the late evening hours, but another round of activity should then impact portions of the region by Tuesday morning. The precipitation activity should improve by the late afternoon and evening hours tomorrow at most coastal sites, but some activity may linger inland. In addition to the multiple rounds of SHRA/TSRA, widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs will develop overnight with MVFR CIGs then lingering for much of the day on Tuesday, though brief periods of VFR CIGs could occur particularly later in the day. Otherwise, very breezy winds out of the NE are expected tomorrow with gusts around 25-30 kts or more at times.

MARINE

Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Winds will be increasing through the afternoon and evening hours out of the northeast as a slow moving cold front starts to push through. This front will be stalling over Central Florida from Tuesday through Thursday. During this time period we will see gusty winds around 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30 knots. We will also see spotty light showers. The front will start to dissipate on Friday. As it does so winds will slowly start to drop to around 10 to 15 knots by Friday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A front will stall over the area overnight. This will bring breezy and humid conditions with spotty light showers through Thursday. By Friday this front will dissipate as drier air filters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 66 76 65 78 / 70 70 30 60 FMY 68 81 67 81 / 60 70 40 60 GIF 66 75 65 76 / 80 70 40 80 SRQ 66 76 65 78 / 70 70 30 60 BKV 60 73 60 77 / 80 60 30 70 SPG 70 77 69 80 / 70 60 30 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.