textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and into early next week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Our southeasterly flow will remain in place through the weekend. This will once again favor mainly evening storms along the seabreeze boundary about 10 to 20 miles away from the coast. These storms will slowly drift to the west coast as we go throughout the rest of the evening and early overnight hours. We have seen an increase of moisture todaY with PW on the morning sounding at 1.8 compared to 1.5 we saw yesterday morning. This will help to bring more convection along the boundary through the weekend.

We will not see much of change next Monday and Tuesday. The only difference is a little drier air which will allow storm chances to drop slightly. The bigger change will start on Wednesday as our upper level flow starts to switch more southwesterly in response to upper level troughing over the area. This will help to bring deep tropical moisture over the area through the end of the week bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the whole state.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

A better moisture profile today will allow for more scattered shower and storms mainly this evening. Storm will develop and move very similiar to the last few days with storms developing inland before drifting to the west coast. Winds will mainly be out of the east with a seabreeze kicking in late in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Not much changing through Tuesday. We will continue to see south to southeasterly winds around 5 to 15 knots. Showers and storms will develop inland in the late afternoon and push towards the coast and into the Gulf from the late evening into the early overnight hours. Upper level winds will switch to the southwest on Wednesday bringing in deep tropical moisture over the area. This will bring overnight showers and storms over the Gulf that will push towards the coast in the morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Summertime moisture with afternoon showers and storms will continue through next Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 76 90 76 / 50 70 60 50 FMY 92 75 93 76 / 50 50 70 30 GIF 93 75 91 75 / 60 80 60 20 SRQ 91 74 91 75 / 40 70 60 40 BKV 94 72 92 73 / 60 80 60 50 SPG 92 76 92 77 / 40 70 60 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.