textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Easterly flow sets up with a more typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Slightly below to near seasonal temperatures expected through the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Aloft, high pressure continues to build over southeastern U.S. from Bermuda, with an associated surface ridge already in firm control. This regime will support an easterly flow, aiding in modest moisture transport. This flow will also transition the most significant chances of rain to the afternoon, as scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop early over the east coast of Florida and track west throughout the day. On Friday, a tropical easterly wave on the southern portion of the ridge will traverse westward, bringing more widespread showers and storms to the area that afternoon/evening.

This pattern will continue into the weekend, with general easterly flow persisting. High pressure will further strengthen, with the surface ridge moving southward over Central Florida. Drier air will move in as the weekend begins to wind down, suggesting slightly decreased chances of rain/storms from saturday to sunday and a more scattered coverage of convection. Into next week, the easterly flow will begin veering to southeast/south. Lingering drier air of PWAT values generally less than 2.0 inches will continue lower rain chances.

Although conditions will not merit advisory conditions, they will remain warm and muggy, with maximum temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the triple digits.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions and easterly winds 10 knots or less will prevail outside of showers and storms. Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon/evening, so will cover this with VCTS and TEMPO TSRA now to around 21Z. Some MVFR CIGS/VSBY restrictions and gusty winds possible in showers and storms.

MARINE

Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Quiet marine conditions expected outside of any convection. Showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon/evening as storms move over the waters from the east. Locally higher winds and seas will be likely.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

No fire weather concerns for the forecast period as moisture remains high.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 88 77 88 / 20 80 30 80 FMY 76 90 76 91 / 30 80 30 80 GIF 75 89 76 91 / 30 80 30 80 SRQ 74 90 75 90 / 20 70 30 70 BKV 73 89 73 90 / 20 70 20 80 SPG 77 88 77 88 / 20 70 30 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.