textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold conditions are forecast again tonight into Monday morning.

- Dangerous marine conditions are ongoing with a high risk of strong rip currents and hazardous surf at area beaches through tonight.

UPDATE

Issued at 740 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Canadian high pressure responsible for the record cold conditions and flurry of wintry weather experienced across parts of the area over the past 24 hours continues to slowly drift across the Deep South toward the state. Winds have gradually trended down into this evening in response, allowing cold air advection into the peninsula to diminish, however with much lighter winds and clear skies tonight, strong radiational cooling will allow temps to again drop into the 20s for most areas away from the coast, and 30s for remaining areas, with much higher frost potential given the calmer conditions. Resulting feels like temps will run about 5 degrees or so cooler than air temps given the lighter winds, and a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for all of our counties along with a Freeze Warning for all counties except Pinellas where temps approaching freezing are expected to be limited in duration and coverage.

Seven climate sites across the area set or tied daily record low and/or record low maximum temps today, three of which (TBW, PGD, GIF) were also monthly record low maximum temps. GIF proved to be perhaps the most noteworthy of the record setters, breaking its daily record low and low maximum temps by 10 and 13 degrees, respectively.

DISCUSSION

Canadian high pressure and an associated arctic airmass is currently over the region with a decreasing area of cold air strato-cu over the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient across the region will weaken allowing winds to decrease significantly down tonight with clear skies setting up favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling across west central and southwest Florida after sunset. So, all cold weather hazard products start at 7pm for anyone participating in any outdoor activities this evening.

A freeze warning and cold weather advisory is in effect for all of west central and southwest Florida with the exception of Pinellas county starting at 7pm. Low temperatures again will drop into the lower 20s north...the mid to upper 20s central, and around 30 in the coastal zones south of Tampa. Winds will be relatively light creating wind chills about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature. This will bring wind chills over the interior very close to extreme cold warning criteria as they will be in the 21 to 23 range...with warning criteria being 20 or less.

- A cold weather advisory is in effect for all of west central and southwest Florida tonight. A Freeze Warning is also in effect for all counties with the exception of Pinellas county. Widespread frost will be possible, across inland areas and wind protected coastal areas which is covered in the cold weather products.

- Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals through tonight and may approach record low temperatures tonight/Monday morning.

- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents and high surf are expected to persist through today.

The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but it will still be another cold day across the region with high temperatures from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again will be likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the N Nature Coast, with around freezing temperatures across the interior...and upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. Areas of frost will likely develop late Monday night through the early Tuesday morning.

The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear skies each day. A cold front will push across the forecast area late Wednesday and Wednesday night which will bring the next chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm to the area. Drier cooler air will advect across the region in the wake of the front Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures will drop back down to about 10 degrees below climatic normals, with the potential for freezing temperatures across the nature coast Thursday night.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR continuing through the period with gusty northerly winds gradually diminishing to around 10 knots or less overnight and holding through Monday under generally clear skies.

MARINE

Dangerous marine conditions continue with strong gusty winds and choppy elevated seas so small craft operators should remain in port until conditions improve. The pressure gradient will start to relax tonight with winds and seas slowly subsiding through early week. The next cold front will move through the waters Wednesday night into Thursday with a chance of showers before hazardous marine conditions redevelop behind the front.

FIRE WEATHER

The cold and dry airmass will remain over the region to start the work week with slight warming into mid week. Afternoon RHs will drop below critical levels but winds will remain light. The next cold front will move through the state Wednesday night into Thursday with a chance of showers. Cooler and drier conditions to build back over the region to end the week into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 34 56 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 33 60 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 29 57 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 34 57 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 24 55 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 41 57 47 65 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.