textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Drier air and lower rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.

- Gusty east to northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 805 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are moving west out into the eastern Gulf with others moving west from the Atlantic Ocean weakening and dissipating as they move into the interior. For the remainder of the night most of the convection will come to an end, but could still see a few light showers/sprinkles move west into the interior later tonight and Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist with east to northeast flow across the region. The breezy east to northeast winds Wednesday will bring some drier air into the northern and central parts of the Florida peninsula limiting convective coverage here, while enough moisture will hold on across the southern interior and southwest Florida for scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Overall the current forecast looks good with no adjustments needed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 805 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Convection will end shortly with VFR conditions expected into early Wednesday morning. Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible Wednesday morning in the east to northeast flow with more MVFR/occasional IFR conditions possible in scattered afternoon convection, mainly across the southwest Florida TAFs of PGD, FMY, and RSW. East to northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots tonight will increase to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts mid- morning Wednesday and continue through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The easterly flow has settled over the area as a ridge of high pressure has shifted north of the area. Showers and storms that are currently over the east coast will continue to move towards the west coast. Similar to previous days, the main hazards will be heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

Tomorrow, a pattern change will begin to set up as an upper level low approaches the state. Out ahead of the low, dry air will move over the state later tonight into tomorrow. This dry air will not only lower rain chances Wednesday and Thursday (especially north of I4), but will also drop dew points and humidity. With the breezy northeast winds, conditions will feel slightly more pleasant for this time of year. This pattern sticks around through Friday. However, moisture increases as the weekend arrives and the upper level low moves away from the state out over the Gulf. The easterly flow remains keeping showers and storms later in the afternoon/evening for the west coast this weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Showers and thunderstorms moving over the waters from the east this afternoon and evening will bring frequent lightning, along with locally higher winds and seas. The easterly winds also begin to increase early tomorrow morning. Winds are expected to increase to advisory levels for the northern waters early tomorrow morning, then spread further south by tomorrow evening. Winds stay elevated through the week as an upper level low moves west over FL.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A period of dry air and elevated winds expected through the remainder of the week, however RH values should remain above critical values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 90 75 89 / 20 20 0 10 FMY 76 90 76 90 / 30 50 10 50 GIF 75 89 74 90 / 10 30 0 20 SRQ 76 91 75 91 / 30 40 0 20 BKV 74 90 71 89 / 10 0 0 10 SPG 78 90 76 90 / 20 30 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Thursday for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.