textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures will continue for Saturday, with high temperatures running about 5-10 degrees above normal.

- There is a high chance for late night and early morning fog formation each day into the weekend, along with sea fog over the coastal waters.

- Hazardous marine conditions and much cooler temperatures return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

A strong cold front will start to push through the southeast today. We will be ahead of this front which will give us another warm afternoon with highs approaching record breaking criteria in the interior. The strong cold front will start to push through the Nature Coast early Sunday morning and should be around the Tampa Bay area by around 7am. By the afternoon we will see it in SW Florida and should be completely out of the area by the evening. We will see a line of showers with the cold front but sadly totals will remain generally below half of inch. This means we will not be able to put a dent into our ongoing drought.

I hope everyone didn't put up all their winter clothes yet because we will see that cold air returning early next week behind the cold front. Temperatures will drop quickly Sunday night as winds remain breezy. This will result in lows Monday morning from the upper 30's to low 40's. However when you factor in the winds it will feel more like the low to mid 30's. The chilly air will remain in the afternoon with highs staying in the 50's. Our coldest morning however, will actually be Tuesday where we could see freezing temperatures as far south as Hardee and DeSoto Counties. We will see one more morning in the 30's on Wednesday before the high pressure pushes off into the Atlantic and winds start to shift southerly.

We will still see some cooler mornings Thursday and Friday but temperatures will quickly rebound each afternoon with highs back in the 80's.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 208 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Out main concern for our aviation partners will me IFR CIGS and VIS possible through the morning hours thanks to the light winds and moist atmosphere. Fog will slowly burn off after sunrise with VFR conditions expected for the rest of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 208 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

A front to our north will keep winds out of the south today around 5 to 10 knots. The main marine hazards throughout our Saturday will be sea fog that will be lingering in the Gulf. The strong cold front will push through on Sunday morning with winds quickly shifting to the west and northwest and increasing to 20 to 25 knots. These gusty winds will continue to stick around through our day on Monday before slowly coming down Monday night. By Tuesday we will see winds from 10 to 15 knots before going down to 5 to 10 knots on Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 208 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Warm and dry air will stick around again on Saturday before a cold front pushes through on Sunday morning. We will see some passing showers on Sunday but totals will remain low. Drier air will be filtering in along with breezy condition behind the front on Sunday however RHs will remain above critical levels. Even drier air will remain on Monday along with winds staying near 15 mph. If this forecast continues we will see red flag conditions on Monday afternoon. After Monday RHs will slowly be on the rise for the rest of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 83 64 74 44 / 0 20 70 0 FMY 86 61 79 44 / 0 0 60 0 GIF 88 63 77 40 / 0 10 80 0 SRQ 81 63 75 46 / 0 0 80 0 BKV 86 58 74 34 / 0 30 60 0 SPG 81 66 75 49 / 0 10 80 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.