textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warm to above normal conditions Friday through early next week.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions continue this evening with multiple cloud layers from decaying afternoon convection and post frontal stratus. Models are hinting at some areas of MVFR cigs as low level moisture becomes trapped under inversion for low stratus on light NW flow off the E Gulf thru 12Z. W flow increases THU mixing out low clouds by around 15Z Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Frontal boundary across the region will move south of the area tonight and Thursday with a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm continuing across the region into this evening. Winds shift to more northerly during tonight and just ahead of this shift we could see a few more light showers/sprinkles. For Thursday and Friday, high pressure will build in from the north with mostly sunny and less humid conditions. The overall flow will be light enough that we'll see a decent west coast sea breeze develop both afternoons keeping coastal areas in the 80s while inland locations climb into the lower 90s.

Over the weekend and into early next week, the surface high will move out into the western Atlantic Ocean but continue to ridge west into the southeast U.S. setting up an east to southeast flow across the peninsula. Moisture will gradually return with rain chances slowly increasing each day, starting out 20 to 50 percent across inland areas Saturday then increasing to 30 to 70 percent from north to south early next week with the best chances along the coastal counties where the sea breeze collision occurs during the late afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal during this time, but not expecting any new records.

MARINE

Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

A stalled frontal boundary over the waters will slowly drift south tonight and Thursday, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible early tonight, then drier conditions return for Thursday and Friday. High pressure will settle in northeast of the waters this weekend into early next week, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possibly moving west into the coastal each day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

A stalled frontal boundary over the region will shift south tonight and Thursday with drier air spreading south Thursday and Friday. Relative humidity values are forecast to remain above critical levels Thursday, but could drop to 30 to 34 percent across inland parts of the Nature Coast on Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 72 86 69 90 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 73 91 71 93 / 10 0 0 20 GIF 69 88 67 90 / 20 0 0 0 SRQ 72 87 70 90 / 20 0 0 0 BKV 66 87 61 91 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 74 88 72 90 / 20 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.