textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

UPDATE

Issued at 840 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Some scattered low-topped shower activity continues to move offshore this evening with most land areas dry at this point. Additional precipitation is not expected through the remainder of the evening and overnight hours with mainly clear skies and overnight lows dropping to the upper 50s to the mid 60s. Other some minor tweaks to PoPs this evening based on latest radar trends, the forecast remains on track at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Today is shaping up to be a mostly dry and hot day with only a few showers possible this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow will look a little different with an increase in moisture in the mid levels moving over the state. As it does so it will allow for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to form during the afternoon and evening hours. With our easterly flow still in place we can expect these showers to move from east to west during the day.

Our mid levels quickly dry back out for Friday and into the weekend. This will keep showers to a minimum with only a 20 to 30 percent chances each afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain warm with highs around 90 degrees both Saturday and Sunday for most of the area.

By next Monday a frontal boundary will start to slow down over North Florida resulting in increased moisture and better shower chances throughout the day. This front will slow drift south Monday night and stall over the area Tuesday. Right now models are showing a cloudy day with light on and off showers. This gloomy day will also result in temperatures staying in the mid to upper 70's for highs.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 758 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

High pressure across the region will maintain and east-southeast wind flow throughout most of the period, though a brief shift onshore may occur at coastal sites later on Thursday. In addition, while mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon and evening tomorrow, with highest rain chances from 20Z-01Z.

MARINE

Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Ridging will remain over the area through the weekend keeping winds out of the east. Winds will increase slightly to 10 to 15 knots for Thursday through Saturday before coming back down to 5 to 10 for Sunday. Our best chance of showers and storms will be Thursday evening as storms push off the coast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

RH will remain above critical levels through the period. The best chance of rain through the weekend will be on Thursday as increase moisture will allow for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 86 67 86 69 / 10 10 50 20 FMY 86 65 87 68 / 10 10 50 20 GIF 86 64 86 68 / 10 0 50 20 SRQ 86 65 86 67 / 0 0 40 20 BKV 88 59 88 63 / 0 10 40 20 SPG 86 70 87 72 / 10 10 40 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.