textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures through Thursday, turning colder Friday through the weekend. - A few showers expected here and there through Thursday night, but overall rainfall amounts will be low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

An upper level trough will move across the eastern U.S. over the next few days with an associated cold front sweeping through the region Thursday night and early Friday. Southwest to west flow ahead of the boundary will keep some moisture across the region leading to a few showers. Best chances will be over the interior and southwest Florida late this afternoon and evening, continuing across southwest Florida Thursday. Then a few showers will move south across the area Thursday night along and just ahead of the front. Overall rainfall amounts will remain rather low with most areas seeing less than a tenth of an inch.

Behind the cold front much cooler drier air will overspread the area through the weekend with some of coldest temperatures we've seen since late March.

Early next week a shortwave will move through the upper level trough over the eastern U.S. with an area of low pressure possibly developing over the gulf. This should help spread moisture back across the region leading to clouds and some rain. The GFS and ECMWF are both showing this scenario, but the GFS is faster bringing the system across the area late Sunday night into Monday night, while the ECMWF is more Monday night into Tuesday. Either way it does look like we'll see breezy easterly flow with some rain, and hopefully future model runs will come more in line.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

A few showers are expected this afternoon and evening which could cause some brief MVFR conditions, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Westerly at 7 to 10 knots this afternoon will diminish and become light this evening, then increase to 5 to 10 knots out of the west to northwest Thursday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Light winds and rather benign conditions will persist through Thursday. A cold front will move across the waters Thursday night and early Friday followed by increasing north to northwest winds up to cautionary levels Friday and Friday night. Winds will shift to northeast and diminish some for Saturday and Sunday. Then an increasing easterly flow will setup Sunday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds south over the eastern U.S. and a potential area of low pressure moves across the gulf with advisory level winds possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

No fire weather hazards are expected through Thursday as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. Drier air will overspread the region Friday and continue through the weekend. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the upper 30s north and low to mid 40s central on Friday, then mid to upper 30s across much of west central and southwest Florida away from the coast on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 79 62 71 / 0 0 30 0 FMY 70 81 69 76 / 30 20 20 10 GIF 64 80 60 72 / 10 0 20 0 SRQ 70 80 65 73 / 10 10 30 0 BKV 61 80 56 70 / 0 0 20 0 SPG 70 78 65 71 / 0 0 40 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.