textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast during the morning hours and will push inland during the afternoon and evening today and tomorrow.

- Drier air will come into the area Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Over the next few days, we can expect to see a deviance in the pattern that we have been in over the last week or so as dust from the Saharan Desert moves its way into Florida.

Today looks similar to yesterday, as the southwesterly flow produced early west coast storms that have moved and developed further inland as the afternoon continues. Heat index values have also reached into the triple digits.

After today is when the Saharan dust will move into our area, reaching west central Florida in the evening hours on Wednesday. This will reduce storm and shower chances greatly, though isolated showers may still be possible. With these reduced chances brings elevated temperatures, with heat index values potentially reaching up to 110 on Thursday.

Over the weekend, a front will be pushing through that will limit the northward advancement of the dust, allowing for some thunderstorms and showers in the southwestern region of Florida. After this trough moves through, conditions will remain warm and dry as the dust continues to linger in our area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Showers and storms continue to drift inland away from coast sites. However, a few showers and storms have starting developing near SWFL terminals. There's a possibility later this evening, for a push back towards the west coast , though confidence remains low. Less coverage expected tomorrow as dry air at the mid levels begins to overtake the area.

MARINE

Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Marine conditions remain pleasant outside of any shower or storm activity. Winds remain below 10 kts and seas less than 2 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of low level moisture remains in the area. Saharan dust will drift over south Florida beginning tomorrow before drifting further north as the weekend approaches. This will keep rain chances low and conditions hot.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 94 81 94 / 10 30 10 10 FMY 78 95 78 96 / 20 30 10 10 GIF 76 95 77 96 / 10 40 10 10 SRQ 79 94 80 95 / 10 20 10 10 BKV 75 95 75 97 / 10 20 0 10 SPG 81 93 82 95 / 10 20 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.