textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight rain chances this afternoon, then higher rain chances Sunday into Monday.

- Late night and early morning fog will be possible for the next several days.

- Sea fog will be possible from around Tampa Bay north through the morning hours today, and again over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 Northwest flow continues aloft this afternoon with high pressure centered over Mexico. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is slowly moving southward over the peninsula, with just a few light showers accompanying it. This boundary will gradually dissipate on Friday, then high pressure builds over the southeast and holds over the region as it shifts eastward through the weekend. Overall, our local weather will not change much over the next several days, with generally mild conditions and fog being the primary concern each night.

Late this weekend into early next week, a disturbance will move along the northern Gulf coast, eventually bringing our next (and good) chance for rain and maybe even a few thunderstorms. The best rain chances at this time look to be late Sunday through early Monday morning, clearing by Monday night. High pressure then builds back in for the rest of the week, with near to slightly above normal temperatures expected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day, then fog and low clouds are expected again tonight with IFR conditions or worse, then clearing by mid morning.

MARINE

Issued at 126 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 Winds and seas will remain benign through the weekend with the main concern being sea fog. There is an area around Tampa Bay and off Pinellas county that has prompted the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory and additional advisories may be needed later today and tonight. A front will push through Sunday and Monday, with showers and a few storms, followed by increasing winds near headlines. High pressure then builds back over the region through mid week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with no Red Flag concerns. The main issue will be fog tonight into tomorrow morning, mainly from around Tampa Bay southward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 57 76 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 58 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 55 78 56 79 / 10 10 0 10 SRQ 57 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 48 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 60 74 61 77 / 0 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters.