textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this weekend, mainly away from the coast

- Warming trend through weekend into early next week

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 712 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some showers are expected late this afternoon and evening, mainly affecting southwest Florida sites, but also extending northward along I-75, likely east of the Tampa Bay area terminals. Timing is 21Z and later, ending by 03Z or so.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Zonal flow aloft overspreads the peninsula this morning, with a low amplitude shortwave evident in WV imagery trekking across the Gulf, undercutting ridging over the C/E U.S. This feature will slide south of the forecast area over the next 24 hours with most associated impacts confined to far S FL/FL Straits, however an associated increase in cloud cover is likely locally later today into tonight. Surface high pressure has drifted into the W Atlantic this morning, with ridging extending back across the panhandle along the N Gulf, with E/SE boundary layer flow continuing locally. This general setup holds into the weekend with gradually warming temps, and increasing moisture yielding gradually increasing chances for a few afternoon and evening showers and perhaps a storm, focused toward the interior. A cold front sinks into the SE U.S. over the weekend shunting the ridge axis south across the peninsula causing boundary layer flow to gradually veer to W/SW while moisture continues to increase as PWATs climb toward 1.5 inches, supporting scattered shower/storm development across the peninsula, with highest chances continuing to focus toward the interior and lower chances toward the coast, with the flow regime setup favoring the late morning through afternoon period for highest rain chances. Ridging shifts back north across the area early next week with rain chances tapering off and temps continuing to warm, with afternoon highs warming from the low/mid 80s today, to the mid 80s/around 90 through the weekend, and upper 80s/lower 90s through early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

E/SE winds over the waters into the weekend then gradually veering to W/SW over the weekend as the ridge axis shifts south across the waters while a frontal boundary approaches north of the waters. Showers and storms chances during the weekend, then diminishing early next week as ridge axis shifts back over the waters with generally light winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

E/SE winds locally into the weekend as ridging remains north of the area, then gradually shifting to W/SW during the weekend as ridging shifts south across the peninsula while a frontal boundary settles north of the area. Increased shower and storm chances over the weekend, then gradually diminishing chances through early next week as ridging shifts back over the peninsula with light winds locally.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 66 86 68 / 0 10 10 0 FMY 85 65 87 67 / 10 20 20 10 GIF 84 63 87 65 / 10 10 20 0 SRQ 84 64 84 65 / 10 10 10 10 BKV 86 57 87 58 / 10 10 10 0 SPG 85 70 86 71 / 0 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.