textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 732 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Thunderstorm coverage will increase today and Saturday, but will remain limited over the Nature Coast counties. Higher rain chances are forecast across the area Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 732 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of shower and storm activity. Best chances are for this afternoon, with the highest coverage expected around southwest Florida sites. Brief periods of reduced cigs/vis will be possible along with gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Currently at the surface, broad high pressure is holding north of Florida, while a weak area of low pressure sits over the Caribbean, keeping east and northeast flow in place. Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing the unseasonably dry air mass pushing west out of the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf waters as deeper moisture advects into the state from the Atlantic on the persistent easterly low level flow. This will result in a return of higher rain chances today and into the weekend, although enough dry air is lingering over the Nature Coast counties to keep rain coverage there isolated at best today. Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers and storms will move west across the rest of the forecast area today, and across the entire forecast area on Saturday.

Atmospheric moisture is forecast to continue to increase Sunday through the first half of next week, resulting in more numerous storm coverage, and perhaps some higher rain totals. Under continued easterly or northeasterly flow, the daily pattern will typically involve showers and storms developing over the eastern half of the peninsula and shifting onshore from the Atlantic during the morning hours, then generally spreading west into the forecast area throughout the afternoon and early evening hours. Otherwise, temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and morning lows in the lower to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Breezy east and northeast winds will subside today as high pressure to the north of the waters settles in, with winds remaining near Small Craft Exercise Caution levels today, then generally remaining less than 15 knots during the weekend and into early next week. However, increasing moisture will lead to greater storm coverage, with locally higher winds and rough seas expected near the strongest storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Atmospheric moisture will increase from the south today through the weekend, bringing a return of higher rain chances. While the Nature Coast counties are only expected to see isolated showers or storms today, scattered to numerous storms will develop across the rest of west central and southwest Florida today, then across the entire area on Saturday. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 74 90 75 / 40 10 70 20 FMY 90 74 89 74 / 70 40 60 30 GIF 91 72 91 73 / 30 10 60 10 SRQ 92 74 90 74 / 50 30 60 30 BKV 92 71 91 71 / 20 10 50 10 SPG 91 76 89 76 / 50 30 60 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.