textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather with rain-free conditions and lower humidity expected through midweek.

- Moisture increases late in the week leading to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Drier air continues to filter into the region, but we are seeing some areas of low clouds and fog at this time over parts of the southern interior and southwest Florida where the drier air has not arrived yet. These clouds and fog should be gone by sunrise with mostly sunny and less humid weather for the remainder of today. High pressure will hold over the southeast U.S. into midweek continuing the fair dry weather across the region. Late in the week the high will shift out into the western Atlantic Ocean, but continue to ridge west into the southeast states. This will shift the low level flow to a more easterly direction bringing moisture back into the area. The chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will return Thursday afternoon, but generally south of I-4. For Friday into Saturday, the entire region will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms as the moisture overspreads the area ahead of a cold front. This front is expected to sweep across the Florida peninsula Saturday, followed by some drier air to start next week as a strong area of high pressure settles over the eastern states. The low level flow will veer quickly to northeast and increase with rather breezy conditions expected over the weekend behind the front.

Daytime high temperatures will continue near to a couple of degrees above normal through the week, but thanks to the drier air overnight lows will be a few degrees below normal through midweek, then back closer to normal as the moisture returns late in the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Some low clouds and fog will continue to develop and drift south across the southwest Florida TAF sites overnight causing some IFR/LIFR conditions. Otherwise, drier air will filter into the region with VFR conditions prevailing for the remainder TAF forecast period. Light north winds will increase to 7 to 10 knots later this morning then diminish to 5 knots or less this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

High pressure building into the region will allow winds and seas to continue to subside today. The high will remain over the waters through midweek with generally north to northeast winds each day below cautionary levels, except across the southern waters Tuesday night. During the second half of the week winds will shift to a more easterly direction with some moisture returning leading to isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Weak high pressure and a drier airmass will hold over west central and southwest Florida through midweek. Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels each afternoon with north to northeast 20 foot winds less than 15 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 68 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 89 69 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 89 66 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 87 69 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 87 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 87 71 87 72 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.