textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance of early morning fog over the next couple of days impacting both land areas and coastal waters.

- Near record temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Cooler weather will return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Broad upper ridging south of Florida extends northward over Florida and along the eastern seaboard. On the surface, a 1028 mb high pressure center off the New England coastline ridges southwest through the western Atlantic, over Florida and into the eastern Gulf. Little change is expected in this synoptic pattern through Saturday. This will allow for a warm and moist air mass and southeast winds over the region through Saturday. As we saw on Thursday, the daytime high temps will approach near-record highs for some areas. The other weather concern will be with the potential for early morning fog again this morning and on Saturday morning. Although, latest guidance does not show as widespread as we have seen the past couple of mornings. We will be closely monitoring for the need of any Dense Fog Advisories.

The next weather system that is expected to move through the area on Sunday is still back over the central U.S. An area of low pressure and upper troughing is located over the western Great Lakes region. The associated cold front extends south through the Mississippi River Valley and into eastern Texas. As the parent low moves northeastward by Saturday morning, another low develops along the existing frontal boundary near MS/AL. This low and cold front moves east-northeastward on Saturday and into Sunday bringing our next chance of showers and storms to the area. The highest chance of showers and storms will be over the eastern gulf waters and Nature Coast on Sunday, while most of the area south of Tampa Bay and interior counties will likely remain rain-free.

By early Monday morning, the front pushes south and east of Florida and becomes stationary south of Florida as strong high pressure builds into the southeast U.S. This high pressure will help usher in some cooler and drier air for the first half of next week. By next Wednesday, a weak area of low pressure develops east of Florida as the previous frontal boundary lifts slightly northward. This will bring our next chance of showers on Wednesday and Thursday next week. This system will push east of Florida by next Friday as another high pressure center sets up over the southeast U.S. and will usher in another push of cold air to close out next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Some patchy fog across the region this morning may provide a brief period of VSBY restrictions at the start of the TAF period, but any lingering fog should dissipate by around 15Z. VFR conditions are then expected area-wide through the remainder of the day with light SE winds this morning shifting to the SW by the afternoon at coastal sites as the sea breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 212 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

High pressure ridging across Florida and into the eastern Gulf will keep rain-free conditions, light southeast winds around 10 knots and seas 2 feet or less seas through Saturday. There is a low to moderate probability of some sea fog reducing visibility to less than 1 NM across inshore, nearshore, and offshore waters for the next couple of days. On Sunday, the next cold front will move through the region, bringing a chance of showers and producing a period of elevated winds and seas. High pressure settles into the region next week with improving marine conditions and cooler weather expected for the first half of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Light winds, high relative humidity values and rain-free conditions will continue to keep overall fire weather concerns low through Saturday. However, there is a chance that fog will develop each night through Saturday. If any residual smoke lingers, this could mix with fog to reduce visibilities to near zero, especially during the early morning hours when fog is favored to be the thickest and most widespread. A cold front moves through the area of Sunday bringing a chance of showers to the area, primarily north of Tampa Bay and along the coast. Clearing and cooler conditions expected for the first half of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 83 65 81 64 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 85 62 84 64 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 84 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 82 62 80 63 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 85 57 84 55 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 81 65 80 66 / 0 0 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.