textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost likely across the nature coast and interior peninsula Wednesday night.

- Hazardous boating and beach conditions continue through early Wednesday morning. Inexperienced boaters should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions and beachgoers should exercise caution if going into the water as even the best swimmers can be swept away from shore.

- Elevated fire weather concerns exist through this afternoon due to low relative humidity values.

UPDATE

Issued at 934 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

After another chilly morning across the region as some locations across the Nature Coast dipped into the 20s, temperatures have now recovered above freezing area-wide so the cold weather advisory and freeze warning previously issued was allowed to expire on schedule. While satellite imagery shows that the clear skies are helping boost up the temperatures a bit, continued northerly flow will still make for a cool afternoon on this final day of 2025 with highs only reaching the upper 50s to the mid 60s, which is around 10-12 degrees below normal for late December. The ongoing forecast remains in good shape with no changes planned this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 Canadian high pressure is well established over the Florida peninsula with clear skies and cold temperatures. A freeze warning remains in effect through early this morning for Levy, Citrus, Hernando, and Sumter counties. A cold weather advisory for low wind chills is also in effect through early this morning for all of west central and southwest Florida.

The area of high pressure will hold over the forecast area through the end of the week. The airmass will slowly modify each day. Highs today will again only be in the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south under sunny skies. Clear skies and light winds will create ideal conditions for strong radiational cooling Wednesday night. Low temperatures across the nature coast and interior will drop into the mid 30s. This will set-up the potential for areas to widespread frost to develop during the late night and early morning hours around sunrise...and a frost advisory will likely be needed for portions of the area. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer near and just inland from the coast as a weak onshore wind component may develop.

A bit warmer on Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 60s...and overnight lows Thursday night in the lower 40s across the nature coast and interior with mid to upper 40s elsewhere...except lower to mid 50s near the coast. Patchy fog will also be possible.

Daytime temperatures will finally return to near climatic normals on Friday with high temperatures generally 70 to 75.

A frontal boundary will push across the forecast area over the weekend with a chance of showers. High pressure will build back over the region early next week, with temperatures holding near to slightly above climatic normals.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period as high pressure to the west remains in control. Surface winds out of the north this morning will shift to the NW by the afternoon with winds around 5-10 kts today.

MARINE

Issued at 1212 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 Hazardous marine conditions through early this morning with a small craft advisory in effect through 7 AM for all of the waters of west central and southwest Florida including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Winds and seas will gradually subside today and Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1212 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions today as minimum relative humidity values will drop below critical levels across the nature coast and inland portions of the remainder of west central and southwest Florida. Winds will remain below 15 MPH across the region. Low level moisture will recover a bit on Thursday with only the northern nature coast approaching critical levels during the afternoon hours. Again, winds will remain below 15 MPH.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 60 47 68 52 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 64 43 71 49 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 60 40 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 62 47 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 58 35 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 60 53 68 56 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.