textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through early next week.

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms will develop each day through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 843 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

With a moist and conditionally unstable airmass still in place across the Florida peninsula, several meandering boundaries along the FL west coast have regenerated new convection offshore from the Tampa Bay area northward along the Nature Coast. A few of these storms have moved or are moving onshore as well. The expectation is that this activity will wind down at least over land as the evening progresses, due to the loss of daytime heating over land. The warmer ocean waters suggest that at least some activity will probably continue through the night offshore, however. Some slight tweaks have been made to the forecast for the next few hours to capture this.

As the sun rises tomorrow, additional convection may begin to develop and then move onshore late in the morning to early afternoon, transitioning eastward through the afternoon and into the evening. This is consistent with the current forecast and requires no additional adjustment. Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape as well, with no additional changes needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Current visible satellite imagery indicates an increasing cumulus field across the Florida Peninsula as the seabreeze pushes inland. The best coverage of showers/storms this afternoon and evening will be across inland areas. PW values from this mornings sounding was 2.03 inches. This value is around the 75th percentile of late August climatology. Therefore, expect these showers and storms will produce heavy rainfall resulting in a quick 1 to 2 inches of rain in some locations. Much of the same is forecast on Friday with little change in the low-level flow. Highs today and Friday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with max heat indices around 100.

Low-level flow will take on more of an easterly direction over the weekend. This should keep the seabreeze closer to the coast. Due to this, expect the best coverage of showers and storms will be along the coast over the weekend with drier conditions inland. In this flow regime, temperatures will be a little warmer inland with highs in the mid 90s and heat indices climbing to near 105.

Overall, not much meaningful change to the pattern going into the upcoming work week. Easterly flow persists throughout much of the upcoming week. A few models show a day or so of slightly drier air during the middle of the week but this will brief, if it occurs at all. Once again pops will remain elevated with best chances for showers/storms generally along the coast. Highs will be in the low 90s with heat indices around 100.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 843 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Most of the convective activity is expected to stay away from coastal terminals through the night. However, there is about a 30% chance that a shower could impact KPIE or KTPA over the next couple hours before the potential decreases. The main window for convection will again be primarily during the afternoon hours (perhaps late morning for coastal sites around Tampa Bay). As storms generally move eastward later in the day, the threat decreases around Tampa Bay. However, with lighter flow in SWFL, the mid-afternoon through early evening is the time-frame when storms are most likely in the vicinity. Over the weekend, the flow shifts to the southeast, delaying the development of the sea breeze and favoring mainly late afternoon/evening thunderstorms for all terminals through at least the middle of next week.

MARINE

Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Light winds and seas are generally forecast. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 90 77 91 / 20 40 20 70 FMY 77 94 77 93 / 20 50 30 80 GIF 74 93 75 94 / 30 50 30 70 SRQ 76 91 76 93 / 20 40 20 70 BKV 72 91 72 93 / 20 60 20 80 SPG 78 89 78 91 / 20 40 20 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.