textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 815 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Above normal temps and mostly dry conditions over the weekend into early next week with heat indices topping 100 degrees. - Increasing shower and storm chances spreading northward across the area next week particularly mid week and beyond.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

High pressure to remain over the region through the weekend and into early next week with gradually warming temps and limited shower/storm chances confined to SWFL locations. Ridging aloft building over the E U.S. and Gulf will favor above normal temps particularly on Sunday and Monday with afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s for much of the area along with heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees. Immediate coastal areas will remain a few degrees cooler in response to the sea breeze.

Above normal temps continue into early next week, then moderate a bit by mid week through late week as moisture spreads northward across the area from the Caribbean. Shower and storm chances gradually increase and spread northward across SWFL into WCFL into mid week, then across the remainder of WCFL and the Nature Coast mid to late week. Afternoon highs fall into the upper 80s/lower 90s in response, with winds gradually shifting from easterly during the first half of next week to more southerly over the latter half of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 815 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions through the period with mainly easterly flow. Coastal sites will see a westerly seabreeze kick in during the afternoon and evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

High pressure remains over the waters with no headlines expected through the period. Generally dry through the weekend although a few showers or an isolated storm possible mainly over the central and southern waters. Moisture increases next week with shower and storm chances increasing substantially by mid week. Winds remain easterly, turning onshore near the coast in the afternoon and evening with the sea breeze.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

High pressure remains over the region with mostly rain free conditions through the weekend. Higher dispersions remain likely the next few afternoons, otherwise a few hours of critical RHs north of I-4 on Sunday/Monday afternoons remain the primary fire concern. Corresponding wind speeds during the critical RH hours look to remain below 15 mph. Moisture and rain chances gradually increase and spread north across the peninsula early next week, becoming scattered to numerous mid to late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 74 94 79 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 92 72 95 76 / 0 0 20 20 GIF 91 69 94 74 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 93 72 94 77 / 10 10 0 10 BKV 94 68 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 94 74 95 79 / 0 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.