textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

The forecast remains unchanged for the next several days as surface high pressure continues to ridge west into the southeast U.S. with the low level east to southeast flow across the region. Upper level ridging does setup over the area keeping the rather hot temperatures in place and this combined with enough moisture, precipitable water values between 1.4 and 1.7 inches, will lead to scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. The flow will remain light enough through Sunday, sea breeze regime 6, to allow the west coast sea breeze to move inland with highest rain chances around and just east of the I-75 corridor. Early next week the eat to southeast flow will increase, sea breeze regime 7, and this will favor coastal areas for the highest rain chances. Overall it looks like the early summerlike pattern will continue for the next several days with some much needed rainfall across the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible later this afternoon and evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through Friday morning. The east to southeast winds at 6 to 10 knots early this afternoon are expected to shift to westerly at TPA, PIE, and SRQ as the bay/sea breezes develop and move inland. The sea breeze could also reach the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW later this afternoon, but convection could overwhelm this and cause winds to be rather variable. The overall east to southeast flow will return later this evening at 3 to 6 knots, then increase to 6 to 10 knots again Friday morning. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

The east to southeast flow will continue through the weekend then increase some early next week. Speeds could reach cautionary levels during the nighttime hours early next week, otherwise they are are expected to remain less than 15 knots except in the vicinity of any showers and thunderstorms that could move offshore during the late afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next several days with sustained winds less than 15 mph. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day mainly during the afternoon and evening hours which could cause gusty and erratic winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 92 78 92 / 30 20 20 40 FMY 74 93 76 93 / 40 40 20 60 GIF 74 93 75 93 / 30 20 10 40 SRQ 75 92 76 92 / 20 20 20 30 BKV 73 94 74 94 / 20 30 30 40 SPG 77 93 78 94 / 20 20 20 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.