textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, but a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the morning hours Friday through Sunday.
- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees are expected through the weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 732 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026
A fairly active afternoon and early evening across the peninsula. The current flow regime supports showers and storms to develop over the east coast and interior locations through the day. Then, outflow boundaries and easterly winds pushed convection towards the coast. Most of the activity has already reached the coast or is close to it. It should all clear out over the next few hours. Overnight lows may be a few degrees lower across the interior Nature Coast, still in the lower 70s, while the rest of the area will remain in the mid to upper 70s, especially near the coast.
On Thursday, there will be pockets of drier air north of the I-4 corridor, which will limit storm coverage with the highest chances over SWFL. Light easterly winds remain in place with the sea breeze pushing in the afternoon. Highs will reach the 90s again with triple digit heat indices.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026
A few showers and storms remain present near terminals but should dissipate over the next hour or two. VFR conditions are anticipated overnight and into the morning hours. Light easterly winds prevail with the sea breeze attempting to push inland into the afternoon. There will be pockets of drier air north of the I-4 corridor that may limit storm coverage near Tampa Bay, however, some convection is still possible. The highest chances should remain across SW FL TAF sites. Intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions and erratic winds possible if storms develop.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 92 78 92 / 20 40 30 70 FMY 76 93 77 92 / 40 70 40 80 GIF 74 93 75 94 / 10 40 20 70 SRQ 76 92 77 92 / 40 50 40 70 BKV 71 94 72 95 / 10 30 20 50 SPG 78 92 79 92 / 30 40 30 60
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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