textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)

Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Showers and storms have are already moving over interior areas of the Sunshine State this afternoon. ACAR soundings across show much drier air across the bay compared to inland locations. Additionally, the instability values seem to be higher as well as the CAPE values. This could explain why currently there is more coverage in these areas. Nonetheless, CAM and other guidance continues to support the development once the sea breeze kicks inland. There is potential for convection to continue past midnight and eventually dissipate.

Overnight lows drop into the 60s with some low clouds lingering through the early hours of Friday. Then, drier air moves in as high pressure builds across the area lowering rain chances on Friday. Afternoon highs will climb up into upper 80s again.

LONG TERM (SAT-WED)

Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

During the weekend, high pressure continues to dominate keeping near zero rain chances before an U/L disturbance and associated front approaches the region early next week. As a result, temperatures drop to near normal with highs in the 70s making a comeback. Rain chances increase through the week with the potential for advisory level winds. A gradual warm up is anticipated thereafter.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Showers are already developing over the interior and will continue to move westward through the afternoon. The sea breeze should push inland over the next few hours and support additional showers and storms near terminals. Convection should gradually diminish into the evening though some CAM guidance keeps it going until around 03Z. East to southeasterly flow prevail through the period with the potential for some MVFR conditions during the early morning hours.

MARINE

Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend winds winds out of the east below cautionary levels. There are chances of showers and storms late this afternoon and evening, but drier air moves in for the weekend keeping the highest chances inland. Then, a cold front will move over the waters early next week with winds shifting to the north and northwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

High pressure remains in control but slightly higher moisture will support showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Then, drier air returns for the weekend. Minimum humidity values should remain above critical levels with east to southeasterly winds prevailing. Another system will bring additional rain chances early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 70 88 69 88 / 40 30 10 10 FMY 68 88 67 89 / 30 20 0 20 GIF 67 87 67 88 / 20 30 0 20 SRQ 68 88 67 88 / 30 20 10 10 BKV 63 88 63 89 / 40 40 10 10 SPG 72 88 72 88 / 40 20 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.