textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall mainly in urban areas with the higher thunderstorm activity each day through much of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Much of the same for today and tomorrow with southeasterly flow in place and plenty of moisture with PW this morning around 2.3. This will favor shower and storm chances mainly on the west coast of Florida in the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Thursday an upper level low will stall along the east coast of Florida. This will shift our flow more southerly and help to bring even more moisture over the state. This will result in PW closer to 2.5. The more southerly flow and deeper moisture will bring more widespread showers and storms to the area with a more uniform chance from coastal to inland locations. This trend should be around through Saturday.

By Sunday the upper level low will dissipate as the ridge shifts south. This will bring a more southwesterly flow back into the forecast which should keep the west coast drier as better storms chances will be inland and along the east coast of Florida at least through Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Another day of easterly flow with plenty of tropical moisture. This will result in scattered storms across the area from the late afternoon through the evening hours. Low CIGS this morning at LAL will slowly lift over the next few hours. Besides that expect VFR conditions through the period outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Wind wise we will be seeing much of the same with easterly flow and winds around 5 to 10 knots. The best chance of storms today and tomorrow will mainly be in the evening and early overnight hours as storms push off the coast. Deeper tropical moisture will come in starting on Thursday bring a better chance of storms during the daytime hours through Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Deeper layer moisture remains over the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through next Monday. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 89 77 / 70 30 70 50 FMY 92 76 92 76 / 60 40 70 30 GIF 92 75 91 75 / 70 20 70 40 SRQ 91 76 90 76 / 70 50 60 40 BKV 91 72 90 72 / 60 20 70 40 SPG 90 77 88 78 / 60 40 60 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.