textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures today, then turning colder Friday through the weekend. - A few showers expected through Thursday night, but overall rainfall amounts will be low.

- Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters starting late Sunday and continuing into most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026 A large mid-level trough continues to dig across the eastern part of the country while a surface low moves over the northeast. An initial, weaker frontal boundary is making its way over south Florida this afternoon, while a stronger one behind it moves over the southeast. Some shower activity this morning mainly south of the forecast area has largely dissipated and even with the second boundary tonight, just a few showers are anticipated and should be gone by daybreak. Much cooler and drier air will start to move into the region tomorrow afternoon as high pressure builds over the southeast, with highs only topping out in the lower to mid 70s. The coldest mornings will be Saturday and Sunday. No freezing temperatures are forecast, but colder spots will drop to near 40 degrees. Highs on Saturday look to remain in the 60s area-wide, then the moderating trend gets going Sunday afternoon, with highs several degrees warmer.

For early next week, some shortwave energy moves across the state, with a surface trough or low trying to form south of the state before moving near the Bahamas later in the week. There's still quite a bit of uncertainty with all of this, though generally speaking, we can expect our local weather to continue on the mild side with increasing moisture and chances for showers for the beginning of the week, then drier air again for the end of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period. Despite a cold front moving through the area tonight, the forecast calls for little to no impact as a result. As of 00z, there is no shower activity at all terminals, but less than a 20% chance of a quick and brief shower, especially from Tampa Bay and points south. Cloud bases should rise from scattered at 3k ft to few at 4k ft as the front pushes through by the early morning hours for TPA, SRQ, and PIE and afternoon for FMY, RSW, and PGD. With the passage of the front, winds shift from 260-290 at around 7 kts to about 300-340 near 10 kts by 18z.

MARINE

Issued at 217 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026 A frontal boundary will move through the region late tonight with a few showers expected. Winds will increase out of the north to northwest near exercise caution range through Friday night, then will turn more northeasterly through the weekend while remaining in the 15 to 20 knot range. Advisory-level winds are then forecast starting Sunday night and will continue through the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 217 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026 A cold front will move through the area tonight, with much cooler and drier conditions filtering into the region. Relative humidity values will dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s for Saturday afternoon, but otherwise fire weather concerns remain low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 73 50 64 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 69 77 55 68 / 20 10 0 0 GIF 61 75 47 66 / 20 0 0 0 SRQ 66 75 54 66 / 20 0 0 0 BKV 56 72 45 64 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 65 73 55 65 / 20 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.