textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through early next week.

- A pattern shift begins to take place tomorrow, with a south to southeast flow favoring afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

- A classic summertime pattern returns by Thursday with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day across the interior and FL West Coast as a southeast flow locks in. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will be the primary threats.

UPDATE

Issued at 727 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A few thunderstorms continue across SWFL and the central interior. With daytime heating now waning, this activity should subside over the next hour or two. While moisture and instability are favorable for some redevelopment over Gulf waters overnight, the light flow suggests that this activity will generally remain offshore if it does indeed form. Overall, a quiet night is still anticipated over land.

The current forecast remains on track. No adjustments are needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A little more moisture today helped to bring some showers along our coastal areas during the morning and early afternoon hours. However the southwesterly winds has pushed much of the precip north of I-4 over to the other side of the state. While south of I-4 we are seeing drier air with little to no rain shower activity occurring.

Trends start to change tomorrow as we shift to a more southerly flow. This will help to bring moisture back in the mid to upper levels and help to produce scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening through Friday. Due to the mainly southerly flow we will not see the storms favor one coast over the area.

As we get into the weekend the ridge pushes north bringing us into a more traditional southeast to easterly flow. This will bring more favorable shower chances over the west coast of Florida each day through Monday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

While a couple thunderstorms remain in the vicinity of RSW and FMY, these should dissipate over the next 1 to 2 hours. VFR then prevails at all TAF sites overnight as dry, stable conditions settle in. With daytime heating and instability, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected tomorrow as the sea breeze develops. The greatest chances reside over SWFL and the interior during the 20Z to 23Z time- frame. Confidence is lower for Tampa Bay area terminals; but if storms form, they are likely to do so slightly earlier in the day. SRQ is the notable exception, with the lowest probability and a later time-frame that aligns better with SWFL terminals. TAFs currently reflect the windows and overall confidence at each terminal when the threat is most likely to occur. Higher confidence in impacts at all terminals returns from Thursday onward into early next week as a classic summertime setup settles in with scattered to numerous afternoon/evening storms each day.

MARINE

Issued at 727 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

High pressure will ridge across Florida and into the coastal waters through the rest of the week, favoring mainly southeast winds in the morning, veering more towards the south to southwest in the afternoon. Late in the day and into the evening from Thursday onward through the weekend, mariners should expect thunderstorms to move off the FL west coast and into adjacent coastal waters. While wind speeds will generally hold around 10 knots or less, these daily thunderstorms will produce locally higher winds and seas, along with frequent lightning and brief periods of reduced visibility.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Moisture returns tomorrow bringing higher storm chances back into the forecast. No major fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 92 77 91 / 10 30 20 70 FMY 77 94 76 93 / 20 70 40 80 GIF 74 95 74 94 / 20 60 50 70 SRQ 76 93 75 92 / 10 30 30 60 BKV 72 93 72 92 / 10 30 10 70 SPG 78 91 77 90 / 10 20 30 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.