textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- More widespread showers and storms will move south through the area tonight and Wednesday, with the strongest storms capable of producing damaging winds gusts and frequent lightning.

- Drier air filters into the region beginning late in the day on Wednesday and into Thursday as a rare late season front moves through the area.

- Gradual return to more typical summertime pattern over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A trough is digging over the Eastern Seaboard, with an attendant cold front being slowly dragged south as this occurs. Weak ridging across the FL peninsula is being eroded in response. As the frontal boundary slowly sinks southward, a deeper moisture is being advected over the area. The 900 to 700mb dry later noted this morning is diminishing, and PWATs are increasing. With increasing instability likely across the region over the next several hours, showers and some thunderstorms should begin to develop over the next few hours. Unlike a typical summer day, increasing instability could allow for additional showers to develop overnight, keeping rain chances anywhere from 30% to 70%. Gradually, rain chances will decrease through the day from north to south as drier air filters in and weak high pressure settles across the state. While temperatures won't drop much, the lower humidity should make Thursday especially feel pretty nice for early June.

Ridging stays in place through much of the weekend and into early next week. As the surface high shifts farther east, the flow will gradually veer to an E and then ESE flow. As this occurs, some moisture will return, and a few storms will be possible, mainly across the southern half of the FL peninsula. By early next week, another trough will dig south and suppress the ridge axis. This could favor another round of WSW flow and the rather oppressive warm and humid weather like what we've experienced for much of the last few days. If this system can dig far enough south like this one, then another frontal system could push south and dry the region out again towards the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

There is an increasing potential for mainly showers to impact terminals beginning later today and into tomorrow. This afternoon/evening, there is also a window for some thunderstorms to impact terminals as well. Gusty winds and MVFR conditions should be expected in the vicinity. Once a frontal boundary moves south tomorrow, some drier air should filter in, keeping rain chances much lower for the remainder of the week.

MARINE

Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate over the next 18 to 20 hours as a frontal boundary moves southward into the region. Expect more storms to develop over coastal waters, and winds to increase to 20 to 25 knots, with some higher gusts. In response, seas will build. This has necessitated the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory across coastal waters beginning tomorrow and lasting until winds subside Friday. Once winds subside, seas will gradually settle as well, with quieter marine conditions returning this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Most areas are likely to see at least some rain over the next 24 hours, with RH values keeping fire weather concerns low through this time. Drier air and gust winds begin to filter into the area late tomorrow and into Thursday. RH values will drop in response, and some higher dispersions will be possible as well, with some northern sections of the Nature Coast potentially looking at a window for critical RH values on Thursday. Moisture gradually increases Friday and through the weekend, with no significant fire weather concerns thereafter.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 75 84 71 85 / 60 30 10 20 FMY 76 86 72 84 / 30 60 30 60 GIF 73 83 69 84 / 60 30 0 20 SRQ 75 86 70 86 / 40 50 20 30 BKV 71 85 65 86 / 60 20 0 20 SPG 76 86 73 87 / 60 40 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.