textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a high risk of rip currents at area beaches today.

- Hazardous marine conditions this morning will improve through the rest of the day.

- Temperatures will increase Tuesday through the rest of the week, with high temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Early morning IR satellite is showing the prefrontal trough pushing into the southern Florida Peninsula as the actual cold front works its way south into the forecast area. Lingering showers over southwest Florida will continue to dissipate and move out to the south through the early morning hours, while winds turn to northerly and weaken through the rest of the day. Cold air advection behind the front will be very modest in comparison to recent fronts from late January/early February, but temperatures will drop several degrees by this afternoon, with highs topping out from the low 70s over the Nature Coast to upper 70s over southwest Florida. Lows tonight will then be about 5-10 degrees lower than what is being felt this morning. Otherwise, the high risk of rip currents will continue through the rest of the day today as onshore winds continue to bring surf into the coast.

Tonight through the rest of the week, broad surface high pressure builds in north of Florida and settles in over the western Atlantic, allowing temperatures to warm back up beginning Tuesday. Highs will top out in the mid to perhaps upper 80s over the interior each afternoon Thursday through Saturday and in the upper 70s to low 80s elsewhere. Apart from the warm temperatures, the other weather concern will be patchy fog developing during the late night and early morning hours, mainly on Thursday and Friday.

A strong upper level trough will dig into the southeastern US during the weekend, sweeping a cold front into the Florida Peninsula by Sunday. This front is expected to cause an increase in rain chances Saturday night and Sunday, followed by some cooler weather early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 214 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Showers and a few storms are continuing to work south through southwest Florida area terminals early this morning, with reduced flight categories expected as storms pass over individual terminals. Some MVFR or IFR ceilings will also be possible through late morning behind the front, with the highest chances around KTPA, KPIE, and KSRQ. VFR conditions are expected to return by the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 214 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Breezy winds and rough seas associated with the passing cold front will continue to subside through the rest of the day, with Small Craft Exercise Caution level seas possibly lingering into the afternoon hours offshore. High pressure then builds in tonight through the rest of the week, with winds and seas remaining below headline criteria.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Slightly breezy northwest winds along and behind the cold front this morning will subside and turn to northeast and east tonight and Tuesday as high pressure builds in. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 56 80 61 79 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 57 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 56 80 58 84 / 0 10 0 0 SRQ 55 79 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 48 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 59 79 63 78 / 0 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.