textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- High risk of rip currents at area beaches today.

- Near freezing temperatures across the Nature Coast coast Saturday night with areas of frost developing late.

- Rain-free conditions and warm up expected into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 736 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Quiet, dry weather continues across the region this evening as a secondary front approaches. Overnight, winds will back to a more northerly direction, filtering in additional dry air to the region. With a light northerly flow, this will favor a couple cooler mornings for Sunday and Monday morning as the dry, continental airmass will allow for more efficient radiational cooling with less moisture in the air. There is also likely to be some breezier winds again tomorrow afternoon with a slight shifting of the ridge axis and a stronger thermal gradient in the afternoon due to the colder SSTs. As such have adjusted the winds speeds slightly higher for tomorrow in response. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 A high risk of rip currents persists this afternoon along area beaches. High pressure will hold over the region today with another cool day across the forecast area under sunny skies. A secondary cold front will push across the Florida peninsula tonight. Not much in the way of colder air behind the front, however a drier airmass will advect across the area which will cause dew points on Saturday to drop into the 30s north/central...lower to mid 40s south. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s, with lower 50s near the coast and over southwest Florida.

Surface high pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida over the weekend and into early next week with continued clear skies and temperatures several degrees below climatic normals. Morning lows Saturday night will again drop to near or slightly above freezing across the nature coast which will cause areas of frost to form around sunrise. Lows will be in the lower to mid 40s elsewhere.

Temperatures will climb a few degrees each day early next week, however temperatures will remain near or slightly below climatic normals. High pressure will move east of Florida mid week which will allow a return flow of moisture and slightly warmer temperatures with highs generally climbing into the mid to upper 70s. And this pattern is expected to hold through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 736 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

While some gusty winds are possible again tomorrow afternoon, conditions otherwise remain quiet as VFR prevails for the next several days.

MARINE

Issued at 1138 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 A secondary dry cold front will push across the waters tonight which will enhance winds and seas to cautionary levels on portions of the waters. Winds will remain a bit elevated through the weekend, but will gradually subside early next week as the gradient relaxes.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 Elevated fire hazards the next couple of days, but RFW criteria not expected to be reached. Drier air advecting over the area tonight behind a cold front will cause minimum afternoon relative humidity values to drop below critical levels on Saturday away from the coast...and near to slightly below critical levels on Sunday. However, sustained winds are expected to remain less than 15 MPH each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 53 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 65 53 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 64 49 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 62 53 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 62 44 68 32 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 64 58 68 50 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.