textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight to Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes possible across the area this evening into early Monday morning.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected this afternoon through early Monday morning.

- Minor coastal flooding possible along the Nature Coast tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

The weather looks nice early this afternoon with partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, but the winds are already becoming gusty to around 20-30 mph. The weather will further deteriorate later this afternoon and into the overnight hours with some severe weather expected. Looking at the synoptic pattern, a closed upper low is located over MS/AL border with associated troughing extending southward into the gulf. The surface reflection is a surface low located over AL, with a warm front extending eastward through GA and into the Carolinas. The cold front extends southward through the western Panhandle and into the northeastern Gulf. This extensive weather system will move eastward over the next 12-18 hours bringing increasing chances for severe weather across parts of west central and southwest Florida. As mentioned in previous discussions, the upper dynamics continue to support damaging gusty winds and possible tornadoes as the squall line ahead of the actual cold front moves through the area later today. SPC continues to hold a Slight Risk for severe storms for parts of the Nature Coast and a Marginal Risk from Sarasota County northward. This has also prompted the issuance of a Tornado Watch for Levy County through 8 pm this evening. Additional Tornado Watches may be needed farther south through the evening.

Based on the latest HRRR model guidance and expected timing, the squall line will move into the Nature Coast between 4-8 pm this afternoon/evening. The line will then move through the Tampa Bay area between 7-11 pm, then making its way to southwest Florida around midnight. The severe threat decreases as it moves over southwest Florida, but can't completely rule out some damaging winds or an isolated tornado, especially over the eastern Gulf waters and closer to the coastline. Another possible hazard associated with this system will be the risk of minor coastal flooding from about Hernando Beach north as the increasing south to southwest winds over the eastern Gulf will cause water levels to rise about 2 feet above astronomical tide levels along the coast. The maximum surge values will be coming in closer to the secondary low tide timeframe, but at the time of high tide around midnight, maximum water levels are expected to be around 1 to 2 feet MHHW (for Levy county, around 3 feet MSL).

The cold front will push south and east of Florida by late Monday morning as high pressure ridges in from the north bringing gradual clearing conditions to the area. The good news is that a cool down is not expected behind this front with average to slightly above average temperatures continuing. High pressure will dominate the weather for Tuesday through the end of next week with rain-free and warm conditions expected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 205 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the early afternoon hours. Increasing cloudiness starting this afternoon with VFR CIGs at all terminals along with gusty south winds up to 35 knots developing this afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the northern terminals during the early evening hours around 00Z with some MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBY restrictions possible. A few storms may be severe. The storms won't reach southwest terminals until late Sunday evening to around midnight. Storms will likely not be severe across southwest Florida, but can't rule out an isolated strong storm with gusty winds.

MARINE

Issued at 205 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Conditions begin to deteriorate today as a strong cold front moves through the eastern Gulf waters. Hazardous winds and seas expected through the day on Sunday and into early Monday as this front moves through the area. This has warranted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory and High Risk of Rip Currents for Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. There is also a Slight to Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging gusty winds and waterspouts possible with frontal passage. The front moves east of Florida by late Monday morning, with gradual clearing conditions and improving marine conditions expected. High pressure will dominate the weather for the remainder of next week with rain-free conditions, winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 205 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

A cold front moves through the area today into Monday producing scattered showers and isolated storms, as well as breezy southerly winds. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds and possible tornadoes. Breezy winds will produce high dispersions through the day on Sunday. High pressure builds back in over the area late Monday and dominates the weather most of next week with rain-free, warm conditions, light winds and RH values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 74 57 80 / 80 0 0 0 FMY 64 78 57 82 / 70 10 0 0 GIF 62 76 57 81 / 80 0 0 10 SRQ 62 72 56 79 / 80 0 0 0 BKV 54 75 49 81 / 80 0 0 0 SPG 64 73 60 79 / 80 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.