textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for nearly all of west-central and southwest Florida today. Heat index values will reach up to 108 degrees.
- Rain chances will remain lower today, with the best chances across southwest Florida this afternoon and evening.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 708 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026 VFR conditions are expected. Rain chances remain lower today, but southwest Florida sites have enough of a chance to include VCTS this afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 323 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026
The overall pattern remains pretty stagnant over the next 7 days with ridging remaining over the area. During the same time PW will remain below average around 1.5 to 1.75. The dry air and subsidence over the area will result in only isolated storm chances each day. The extra sunshine and low rain shower chances will keep temperatures above average and heat index around 108 degrees. That means we will be borderline heat advisory criteria each day.
The only exception to all of this will be Friday as a weak trough pushes through the state. This brings PW up to around 2.25 with easterly flow. This will bring scattered storm chances at least for one day.
MARINE
Issued at 323 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Ridging over the area will keep winds mainly out of the northwest around 5 to 10 knots. Drier air will also result in only isolated storm chances. Winds will start to calm down to around 5 knots mainly out of the north front Friday through the weekend.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 323 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Drier air a lot with ridging over the area will result in limited storm chances for most of the area. Even though we have seen beneficial rain over the area the last two week we are still in a drought. Which mean as we dry out the next few days fire danger will
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 78 93 78 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 94 77 94 77 / 30 10 30 10 GIF 95 76 96 77 / 10 0 20 10 SRQ 93 77 93 77 / 0 0 10 0 BKV 92 75 93 75 / 0 0 20 0 SPG 93 80 93 80 / 0 0 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.
Gulf waters...None.
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