textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-105 degrees continue areawide.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week mainly interior and southwest.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Late afternoon TSRA waning with VFR conditions expected through the the night into THU with light westerly flow. ISOLD TSRA THU afternoon mainly E of terminals with highest Pop in SW Fl and interior areas.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026
A weak boundary north of I-4 is helping to spark a few showers during our early afternoon hours. This boundary will be the main focus of convection this afternoon and evening across West Central FLorida. Down in Southwest Florida we will be seeing southwesterly flow still in place keeping storms mainly inland. As we head into our Thursday we will see a small increase in moisture but the southwesterly flow will keep storms inland and along the east coast once again.
As we head into Friday and the weekend ridging will start to shift north of our area. This will finally bring a more easterly flow in place which should see showers closer to the west coast of Florida. This ridge will shift slightly south again and remain over the area Saturday through Monday. This will bring more of a neutral flow into the area. This flow typically has the afternoon storms develop inland but they tend to drift to the west coast in the evening hours.
By next Tuesday we will see an increase in PW over 2 inches as flow switching more easterly once again. If this forecast remain the same we could see more of a widespread shower chances that day.
MARINE
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Winds will remain out of the west through Thursday around 5 to 10 knots. Winds will start to shift as we end our work week into the weekend but staying around 5 to 10 knots. Winds will be out of
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Summertime humidity and heat will continue however we are expecting dry conditions for the west coast of Florida for much of our work week with better storm chances on Friday and Saturday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 92 80 94 / 10 30 10 40 FMY 78 94 77 95 / 10 50 30 50 GIF 75 94 76 95 / 40 60 30 40 SRQ 79 93 78 94 / 10 30 10 30 BKV 73 95 74 96 / 10 30 10 40 SPG 80 92 80 94 / 20 20 10 30
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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