textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees are expected through the week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Strong upper level ridging will remain over the eastern U.S. into Friday with some shortwave energy drifting west around the base of the ridge. This will help push a weakening cool front into north Florida today which then washes out over the region on Wednesday. For today the flow will remain rather light with deep moisture, precipitable water >2 inches, south of the boundary overspreading the area. This combined with the sea breezes and daytime heating will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms starting late this morning and continuing into this evening. Convection will drift toward southwest so most areas have a decent chance of seeing some rainfall today. Tonight into Wednesday the boundary will wash out over the region with an easterly flow setting up across the peninsula. The deepest moisture will setup from around the I-4 corridor south and with the easterly flow the highest rain chances will be along the coastal counties from around Tampa Bay southward. On Thursday, an east to southeast flow sets up with the deep moisture still from around the I-4 corridor south.

Late in the week into early next week the upper level ridging will breakdown with the surface ridge shifting south and east. This will shift the flow to a more south to southwest direction across the region. Plenty of moisture will remain over the area so expect to see more scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection each day, but cannot rule out a morning shower or thunderstorm near the coast from around Tampa Bay north.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with daytime highs from the upper 80s along the coast to the mid 90s inland and overnight lows in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of tonight, then some areas of MVFR ceilings could develop with daytime heating during the late morning hours. More MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in numerous convection this afternoon and evening, then VFR conditions should prevail later this evening into Wednesday morning. Light winds will become west to northwest 5 to 10 knots by midday near the coast then spread inland during the afternoon before becoming northeast to east at around 5 knots during the evening. The exception will be near showers and thunderstorms where winds could be gusty and erratic.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Pleasant boating conditions are expected for most of the week with winds generally less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less. The main concern will be showers and thunderstorms that develop or move over the waters generating locally rough seas and gusty winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Abundant moisture will keep relative humidity values above critical levels with sustained 20 foot winds less than 15 mph. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week which could cause gusty and erratic winds, otherwise there are no other significant fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 78 92 78 / 70 40 50 20 FMY 96 77 94 76 / 60 40 80 40 GIF 94 75 93 75 / 80 30 50 10 SRQ 94 77 94 77 / 50 30 60 40 BKV 95 72 94 72 / 80 40 50 10 SPG 94 79 93 79 / 60 40 50 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.