textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions continue with near record high temperatures and heat index values of up to 110.

- Dry conditions can be expected for next work week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

It looks to be another day where we will see the Saharan Dust Layer fight with an upper level trough. This will once again keep most of our day dry with storm activity only showing up in our evening and early overnight hours. This later then normal thunderstorm development will help to bring temperatures back into the mid to upper 90's with heat index between 105 to 110. Hi-Res models are showing thunderstorm activity to be a little weaker with less coverage then yesterday with most of us in the 40 to 50 PoP category. By Sunday the trough will be moving out of the area but the SAL will be going nowhere which will lower PoPs into the isolated category.

By next Monday a weakening front will stall in North Florida. This will allow for some scattered storm chances for the Nature Coast while the rest of the CWA remains dry and hot with the SAL still overhead.

With no other upper level or surface features to help with lift or to increase moisture the rest of our work will be dominated by the Saharan Dust. This will keep only isolated storm chances each afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90's each day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period outside of thunderstorms. The Saharan dust layer over the ares will keep thunderstorm convection at a minimum till the evening and early overnight hours with best chances in the interior and SW Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Winds will remain pretty light through Wednesday staying between 5 to 10 knots. Our best storm chances will be this evening through the overnight hours as storms push off the west coast of Florida. After that we can expect only isolated storms chances through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Summertime humidity and warm temperatures will continue through Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly in the evening and early overnight hours on Saturday. After that we can expected mainly dry conditions with only isolated storms chances through mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 81 93 82 / 40 30 30 10 FMY 94 78 96 79 / 40 10 10 10 GIF 96 76 96 77 / 50 30 40 10 SRQ 94 79 94 80 / 30 10 10 10 BKV 97 75 95 76 / 30 30 40 10 SPG 93 81 93 82 / 30 20 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.