textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 641 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the next week.

- Onshore flow will continue through the first half of the week, keeping the highest storm chances over inland areas each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected. Best shower/storm chances will be for KLAL, but could see a few near southwest Florida sites as well, though chances look lower. Overall rain chances look even lower for tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Through the first half of the week, the surface ridge axis is forecast to hold south of the area across southern Florida and the Straits of Florida, keeping a mainly westerly flow pattern in place. This pattern will continue to bring in deep moisture, with generally isolated to scattered showers and storms developing each day, with the greatest rain chances pushing east into the interior. Rain chances will increase slightly over parts of the Nature Coast Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak front stalls out over northern Florida, allowing moisture to pool south of the frontal boundary. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal for mid June, with highs in the low to mid 90s.

After the front breaks up, the ridge will start to work back north into the area allowing the flow pattern to become more southerly for Thursday and Friday. This pattern will continue to bring in deep moisture and continue to produce afternoon showers and storms, but will shift the highest rain chances back west closer to the coast with the sea breeze collision. By Saturday, another front will be pushing south towards Florida, shifting the ridge back into south Florida and returning the area to southwesterly flow. As a result, the highest rain chances can once again be expected over the interior as onshore flow quickly limits convection close to the west coast during the early afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

High pressure will hold south of the waters through Wednesday, keeping mainly westerly and southwesterly flow in place. As the ridge starts to lift north Wednesday night and Thursday, winds will become more southerly. Winds and seas will generally remain less than headline criteria, although occasional thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds each day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

West and southwest flow will continue today and Monday, keeping deep moisture over the area with no concerns for low humidity. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop each day, with the highest rain chances over the interior.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 80 91 81 / 20 10 10 0 FMY 91 78 92 79 / 30 10 20 0 GIF 94 76 94 77 / 40 10 20 0 SRQ 91 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 93 78 92 78 / 20 20 20 10 SPG 92 81 91 81 / 20 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.