textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 739 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- High rain and storm chances continue for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

- Increasing winds and building seas over the eastern Gulf waters on Thursday and Friday. Small Craft should Exercise Caution.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Weak troughing has moved northeast of the Bahamas, while surface high pressure over North Carolina ridges southwest through Mississippi. This high pressure will move southeast off the Carolina coastline between Bermuda and North Carolina over the next few days. Southeast winds on the south side of this high pressure ridging is helping to advect increasing tropical moisture over the Florida peninsula. The 00Z TBW sounding is showing this pronounced increase with a PWAT up to 2.14 inches. PWAT values will remain at 2+ inches across the Florida peninsula through the end of the week and into the weekend. With continued southeast winds and abundant moisture, scattered to numerous showers and storms expected each afternoon during that time period.

By Sunday afternoon, high pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge southwestward over the area. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure will be located off the coast of Virginia with the associated frontal boundary extending southwestward through the southeast U.S. to a developing area of low pressure near the MS/AL coastline. Broad troughing extends southward from this low to the Bay of Campeche. The predominant south-southeast winds that have been over the area will shift more southwesterly for a brief period on Monday afternoon as the frontal boundary moves through the area late Monday into Tuesday. Continued high rain chances with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected for the first half of next week as this frontal boundary remains stretched from east to west across north central Florida. The other effects we will see for the middle part of next week is increasing northeast winds over the northeastern Gulf as a tight pressure gradient sets up between the frontal boundary over Florida and strong high pressure encompassing the eastern seaboard.

With the increasing moisture and rain chances through the end of the week and into the weekend, temperatures and humidity will also be on the rise. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s through next Monday. Near seasonal daytime highs expected with upper 80s to low 90s each day through the end of the week and into the weekend. A slight cool down is expected starting next Tuesday and continuing through next Thursday as a cold front moves south of the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 808 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions continue to prevail through the morning, then developing showers and storms will bring chance of MVFR/LCL IFR conditions through the afternoon and evening, initially across SWFL terminals after 15-16Z, spreading to WCFL terminals by 18-19Z. Winds remain E/SE through the period, generally 8-12 knots with higher gusts likely late morning through the afternoon and perhaps into early evening before diminishing.

MARINE

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

High pressure off the Carolina coastline will ridge west-southwest into the eastern Gulf through Saturday. This will bring increasing southeast winds to 15 to 20 knots with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Seas will also build to around 3 to 6 feet. These breezy southeast winds and moderate seas will continue through Friday evening, then decreasing to around 10-15 knots and seas around 2-3 feet through the weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue in the forecast for the latter part of the week and into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

High rain chances expected for all of west central and southwest Florida for the latter part of the week and into the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and storms possible each afternoon. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than 15 mph. No other fire weather concerns anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 76 87 76 / 70 30 60 60 FMY 87 75 89 76 / 70 30 60 30 GIF 90 74 90 75 / 60 20 60 50 SRQ 88 74 88 75 / 70 40 60 50 BKV 91 72 90 72 / 70 40 60 60 SPG 88 76 87 76 / 60 30 60 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.