textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this weekend, mainly away from the coast.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Bulk of shower/thunderstorm activity as pushed east of the forecast area. Area of mid level cloudiness will advect over the region for the next several hours, with skies becoming mostly clear later tonight.

Weak surface high pressure will hold over the forecast area on Sunday with the ridge axis south of the region, which will create onshore west to southwest boundary layer flow. West coast sea breeze boundary will push rather quickly inland during the afternoon hours with enough deep layer moisture/conditional instability to generate scattered showers over the interior during the mid/late afternoon hours...with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies near the coast. Due to the onshore flow, high temperatures on Sunday will be in the lower to mid 80s near and along the coast, and the upper 80s to around 90 inland.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Weak troughing aloft will continue through the weekend and into early next week while at the surface, weak high pressure remains in place with a developing surface low off the mid-Atlantic coast moving a back-door frontal boundary across the region on Monday. We will keep about a 20-30% chance for rain each afternoon through Monday, with the best chances away from the coast as the sea breeze moves inland. Drier weather persists Tuesday and Wednesday, then another weak frontal boundary approaches the area for Thursday into Friday, with slightly higher rain chances for the Nature Coast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 VFR CIGs AOA120 will advect over all terminals during the next hour or two...with skies then becoming mostly clear later tonight. FEW-SCT 040-050 will develop Sunday afternoon with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly vcnty LAL with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Benign conditions will continue over the waters for the next several days with no headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with no Red Flag concerns over the next few days. A few showers or storms are expected away from the coast each afternoon through Monday, but dry conditions persist otherwise. No widespread significant fog is anticipated, but patchy fog is possible each night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 86 70 85 70 / 10 0 10 0 FMY 89 68 88 68 / 20 10 10 0 GIF 90 66 90 67 / 30 10 30 10 SRQ 84 67 83 68 / 10 0 10 0 BKV 89 60 88 64 / 10 0 20 10 SPG 86 73 85 74 / 10 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.