textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy northerly winds will produce hazardous boating conditions over the eastern Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from this afternoon through Saturday morning.

- Much cooler and drier conditions expected late Thursday through Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 Broad troughing continues across the eastern half of the country as a surface frontal boundary makes its way across the state with a very thin line of showers moving toward southwest Florida. The fog and low clouds from earlier this morning have largely lifted as the boundary continues to push southward, and any areas still seeing low cloudiness should continue to see improvement. The rest of the day will feature temperatures remaining steady as some clouds linger over the region and cooler and drier air begins filtering in from the north. High pressure builds in tonight on gusty north winds and this will lead to low temps tomorrow in the mid 30s north to 40s and lower 50s south. With the breezy winds, the wind chill values will be a few degrees lower than the temperature but are expected to remain above criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory. Temperatures will warm into the 60s under sunny skies for Friday, then we get one more cooler morning Saturday before highs warm back up near normal Saturday afternoon.

While Saturday will remain dry, we actually get some rain chances back in the forecast starting Sunday as the boundary to our south lifts back northward. This will also lead to warmer and more humid conditions that continue into early next week as another trough moves into the center of the country and a surface low develops somewhere along the northern Gulf coast region. This system will move northeastward and eventually drag another cold front across the state Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing another (and higher) chance for rain.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR conditions have returned to most sites after this morning's low clouds and fog, but there is a thin line of showers passing through the region which could briefly lower cigs again. VFR will return by tonight, if not before. Gusty north winds will continue for all sites tonight into Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 A cold front will move through the region today, with winds increasing out of the north and then northeast through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all the waters through early Saturday morning, though winds will stay near exercise caution levels through Saturday night before diminishing Sunday into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 Drier air will move over the region tonight through Saturday, with relative humidity values dropping well below critical levels for Saturday afternoon. Winds will near the sustained 15 mph threshold for a Red Flag Warning, but conditions are too borderline to issue one at this time. Moisture then increases for Saturday into early next week with no further concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 46 65 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 49 69 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 44 65 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 47 66 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 36 63 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 52 64 54 75 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.