textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record high temperatures with high heat index values through Friday.

- Drier air moving into the area will limit rain chances through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is ridging from the Atlantic across central Florida and will largely hold in place through Saturday, then will retreat southeast as a surface trough develops north of the area. Disrupting the normal July pattern, a Saharan Air Layer moving into the forecast area from the southeast is advecting in drier conditions today. While a few stray showers or storms will be possible this afternoon, most areas can expect to see rain free conditions today. Moisture begins to return from the south on Friday and Saturday, although the Nature Coast and parts of the interior are expected to largely remain rain free again Friday afternoon. Sunday through early next week, the rain coverage pattern is expected to flip as a weak trough sets up over northern Florida and areas to the north, keeping deep moisture and the highest rain chances generally north of Interstate 4.

Other than the rain chances, the main weather concern for the next few days will come from the heat. Afternoon high temperatures will run near record warm levels at least today and Friday, topping out in the mid to upper 90s. While the lack of rain and cloud cover today will help push heat index values closer to Heat Advisory levels, the drier air should lower surface dew points slightly. So while not every site is likely to reach advisory criteria today, the thinking is that heat index values exceeding 107 this afternoon will be widespread enough to justify issuing a Heat Advisory for all of west central and southwest Florida. Increased cloud cover and rain chances Friday through the weekend should then limit heat index values somewhat Friday onwards, but conditions should still be near advisory levels in a few locations into the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours. The area is forecast to stay largely rain free today, although there is a low chance of an isolated storm or two developing during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

High pressure will ridge from the Atlantic into the eastern Gulf today through early next week with winds and seas remaining less than headline criteria. Rain chances will be near zero today, then moisture will start to increase from the south Friday through the weekend, allowing for increasing chances of showers and storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Somewhat drier air will hold over the area today and Friday, although relative humidity will not drop to critical levels. Little if any rain is expected today, then scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible Friday afternoon as moisture returns, mainly from around Interstate 4 south.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 97 81 96 81 / 0 10 30 30 FMY 98 78 97 78 / 10 10 40 30 GIF 98 76 97 77 / 10 10 20 20 SRQ 95 79 96 79 / 0 10 30 30 BKV 97 75 98 75 / 10 10 20 30 SPG 96 81 96 81 / 0 10 30 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.