textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions will continue for the next several days. Heat advisory today from 11 AM to 7 PM for all of west central and southwest Florida. - Below normal rain chances for most of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The morning sounding was still around 2 inches this morning which was pretty similiar to yesterday when we widespread storms along I- 75. However the difference today is drier air WILL start to filter in as we go throughout the day. This will help to limit storm activity across West Central Florida. This is the not the case for SW Florida where higher PWs will remain at least for one more day and we are already starting to see activity in Highlands county.

The drier air across West Central Florida will eventually make its say to Southwest Florida with PW generally between 1.5 to 1.75 on Sunday. Historically these lower during the summer months is not enough moisture to produce much in the way of afternoon or evening thunderstorm activity.

By early next week moisture will slowly return from North to south. Monday most of us will be staying dry except for scattered storms along the Nature Coast. By Tuesday I-4 will be the cut off with storms to the north and dry air to the south. By Wednesday we will see PW of 2+ inches across the whole state bring scattered storm chances for everyone from Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Dry air will keep storms at bay for West Central Florida. However we will see some higher moisture content in SW Florida which lead to some afternoon and evening storms. Outside of thunderstorms we will see VFR conditions with winds generally below 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Winds will remain easterly today around 5 knots before slowly shifting north on Sunday and Westerly by Monday. Winds will remain out of the westerly direction through much of next work week. Storm chances through the period will remain low as we are seeing drier through Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Drier air will be filtering in today with best storm chances in South Florida. Starting on Sunday the drier air will be sitting over much of the state limiting shower chances through at least Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 79 94 80 / 20 10 10 0 FMY 95 78 96 78 / 50 10 0 0 GIF 96 77 97 77 / 20 10 20 10 SRQ 94 78 94 78 / 30 10 10 0 BKV 96 75 95 76 / 20 10 10 10 SPG 94 80 93 81 / 20 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.