textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Easterly flow sets up with a more typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Slightly below to near seasonal temperatures expected through the week and into the weekend.

- Tropics remain quiet over the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

After about a week or so of onshore westerly flow, the transition to easterly flow will set up over the area as upper ridging and surface high pressure near Bermuda ridges westward across the southeast U.S., northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf. Abundant moisture with PWAT values of 2+ inches and daytime heating will support the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms over the east coast of Florida early in the day and then traversing westward through the afternoon and evening hours. A tropical easterly wave on the southern periphery of the ridge will traverse westward on Friday bringing widespread showers and storms to most of the area on Friday afternoon/evening.

Over the weekend, broad upper ridging and surface high pressure located between Bermuda and the Carolinas continues to dominate the weather pattern over Florida. Numerous to widespread showers and storms expected on Saturday, then scattered to numerous showers and storms on Sunday.

By Monday, the upper ridge and surface high pressure will nudge slightly southward between Bermuda and the Bahamas. A continued east- southeast wind flow will persist through the first half of next week. Some slightly drier air will move into the region with PWAT values between 1.7 - 2.0 inches expected. This will bring slightly lower rain and storm chances, but still enough for scattered showers and isolated storms developing each afternoon.

Temperatures and heat indices are expected to stay below advisory criteria through the period with daytime temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions and easterly winds 10 knots or less will prevail outside of showers and storms. Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon/evening, so will cover this with VCTS and TEMPO TSRA between 17-02Z. Some MVFR CIGS/VSBY restrictions and gusty winds possible in showers and storms.

MARINE

Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

High pressure ridging across northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf will produce a predominant northeast through southeast wind flow over the coastal waters. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected each day with the highest chances during the late afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms will be moving in a general east to west direction. Outside of showers and storms, winds will generally remain less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

We will continue to see a shift in winds to a more northeast to southeast direction through the end of the week and into the weekend. Abundant moisture will remain across the region allowing for a more typical summertime weather pattern with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 76 90 76 / 70 20 60 30 FMY 92 76 92 76 / 80 30 80 40 GIF 89 75 89 76 / 70 10 70 30 SRQ 91 74 92 75 / 80 30 70 40 BKV 91 73 91 74 / 60 20 60 30 SPG 90 77 90 77 / 70 20 60 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.