textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will increase through the rest of the week, with high temperatures running about 5-10 degrees above normal.

- There is a high chance for late night and early morning fog formation each day into the weekend, along with sea fog over the coastal waters.

- Hazardous marine conditions and much cooler temperatures return early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 710 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Conditions are becoming more favorable for fog/sea fog as moisture continues to slowly increase across the area. For tonight expect areas of land fog to develop overnight, and some of it could become locally dense. Sea fog may also develop with the best chance off the Nature Coast south to around Tampa Bay, but so far only seeing some areas of stratocumulus here and there over the coastal waters. Will need to monitor fog trends through the night, and for now will not making any changes to current forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 710 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Some IFR/local LIFR conditions will be possible later tonight into Thursday morning as areas of fog are expected to develop. VFR conditions should return by late morning Thursday and persist through Thursday evening. Light south winds tonight will increase to around 10 knots by late morning and then shift to more southwest at 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Temperatures as of early this afternoon have already climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s. This warming trend will be the main story throughout the remainder of the week. In the upper levels. broad low amplitude ridging exists across the Gulf and the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, high pressure continues to feature, but will become more centered to the east of the area out over the Atlantic. This will lead to more southerly flow today. The PW values from the 12z TBW sounding was 0.76 inches. This value is near the climatological average for mid-Februrary.

Winds will decouple overnight with high pressue in place. Surface dewpoints continue to increase with warm/moist advection. The Gulf waters are cool with water temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The combination of warm/moist air moving over cooler water will lead to fog development over the Gulf later this evening and over the land as well. Confidence in fog formation overnight is high. This fog should lift overland shortly after sunrise. Models have been hinting that the fog over the Gulf, may lingering into the late morning hours. This pattern will remain consistent through Sunday with medium to high chances for fog development each night. Temperatures will slowly climb each day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast on Friday and Saturday with high in the mid to upper 80s inland on Friday and Saturday. There is a good chance of highs reaching the 90 degree mark inland on Saturday.

A cold front will push southward across the Southeastern U.S. late Saturday as an upper level trough moves across the Tennessee River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Cyclogenesis will take place off the Carolina coast in advance of the trough. The cold front will approach the TBW CWA early Sunday morning. Any precipitation with the front will be light and the average amounts will be around a tenth of an inch. Overall, the precipitation with this system will not do anything to help with the ongoing drought across the region.

There will be a significant cool down behind the front but not like what we saw with the last system in late January and early February. Lows on Monday morning will drop down into the upper 30s across the Nature Coast to upper 40s across southwest Florida. Highs on Monday will only be in the low to mid 60s. The coldest morning will be Tuesday morning with a freeze currently forecast across the Nature Coast with upper 30s to low 40s along coast from Tampa Bay southwards. Temperatures will moderate throughout the remainder of the week.

MARINE

Issued at 112 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

High pressure will ridge into the waters through the rest of the week, with winds and seas remaining below headline levels through Saturday. Areas of sea fog will be possible at times beginning tonight. The next cold front will approach the waters this weekend, bringing increased rain chances Saturday night into Sunday with winds and seas increasing to advisory levels Sunday into Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Humidity increases through the rest of the week. Areas of fog are expected over the next several mornings. A cold front will bring drier and cooler air into the region early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 64 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 62 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 84 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 62 79 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 57 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 66 79 67 80 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.