textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

- Marginal risk of excessive rainfall mainly in urban areas with the higher thunderstorm activity each day through much of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 855 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Convection is moving out into the gulf with areas of stratiform rain linger over land this evening. The precipitation should come to an end over land in the next couple of hours with isolated to scattered convection continuing over the coastal waters overnight. Tuesday looks like it will be similar to today with isolated showers and thunderstorms popping up along the west coast sea breeze early to mid-afternoon with the scattered to numerous convection moving from the interior to the west coast during the mid to late afternoon and evening. Main issue will once again be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that could cause flooding in urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 855 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Convection is winding down with some areas of stratiform rain lingering at this time. The rain will come to an end over the next couple of hours with VFR conditions expected overnight into Tuesday morning. Could see some areas of MVFR ceilings during mid to late morning Tuesday as daytime heating gets underway, then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms could cause some MVFR/occasional IFR conditions during the afternoon and evening. Light east winds overnight into Tuesday morning will shift to onshore with the bay/sea breezes during midday and early afternoon. Winds however in the vicinity of convection could be gusty and erratic.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Deep moisture in place across the area in easterly flow will allow for numerous late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. Flow will become a bit more SE by the end of the week, with trough from the remnants of Dolly potentially bringing some additional tropical moisture. This deep moisture will allow for a marginal risk for flooding, generally in urban areas with the thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 156 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Light east to southeast flow will be in place through the period, with a later afternoon sea breeze close to the coast each day. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day, mainly pushing offshore in the evenings and lingering over the waters through the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Deep moisture will keep RH values and rain chances high through the week. No concerns except for lightning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 90 77 89 / 40 60 40 80 FMY 76 92 76 92 / 40 60 50 80 GIF 75 92 75 92 / 20 70 30 80 SRQ 75 91 75 90 / 30 50 40 80 BKV 72 90 73 90 / 30 60 30 80 SPG 77 90 77 88 / 30 50 40 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.