textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Temperatures warm to above normal conditions Friday through early next week.
- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas, but we will see increased rain chances through next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026 A mid/upper-level trough is swinging across the eastern U.S. this afternoon as a surface frontal boundary makes its way into northern Florida. High pressure both surface and aloft will fill in over the next day or so, with drier air moving in and limiting rain chances to interior central and southwest Florida on Friday afternoon. Surface high pressure will shift out over the Atlantic for this weekend, with a southeast flow setting up across the region. This flow will become more easterly for much of next week, and with precipitable water values increasing, we should see more shower and storm activity each afternoon, consolidating over the west coast as east boundary layer winds prevail.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
MARINE
Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026 High pressure will build over the region through Friday, with northwest winds continuing. By this weekend, southeast to east flow will establish, turning onshore at the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Winds will generally remain below headlines, but thunderstorms could shift offshore during the late afternoon and evening hours each day, leading to locally higher winds and seas.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026 High pressure will move into the region today and Friday, bringing a drier air mass over the area. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop below critical levels from around the Tampa Bay area northward tomorrow afternoon, but Red Flag conditions are not expected. No other fire weather concerns and no significant fog is expected.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 71 91 74 92 / 0 0 10 20 FMY 72 94 73 94 / 0 20 10 30 GIF 67 91 72 92 / 0 10 10 20 SRQ 70 91 72 92 / 0 0 10 20 BKV 63 92 68 94 / 0 0 0 20 SPG 73 92 75 93 / 0 0 10 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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