textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Scattered to numerous shower and storm coverage through the weekend, becoming numerous to widespread most of next week as a frontal boundary stalls over the area.

- Increased winds and seas over the eastern Gulf waters for today. Small Craft should Exercise Caution.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Florida remains situated between an upper level low and troughing over the southwestern Gulf and upper level ridging extending from the Bahamas to the Carolinas. On the surface, broad high pressure located near Bermuda ridges west-southwest over Florida and into the eastern Gulf. South-southwest through south-southeast winds through the column is continuing to advect abundant moisture over the area, which is apparent on the 00Z TBW sounding with a PWAT of 2.22 inches. This moisture is also apparent on the latest water vapor imagery with plumes of moisture advecting from south to north over the area. Models continue to keep abundant moisture with PWAT values between 2.1 - 2.5 inches over the area through the weekend. This will lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon through the weekend.

By Sunday afternoon, the upper ridging and surface high continues tor ridge west-southwest from Bermuda to the east coast of Florida. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure will be located off the coast of Virginia with the associated frontal boundary extending southwestward through the southeast U.S. to a developing area of low pressure near the MS/AL coastline, then further extending southwestward through the western Gulf. The predominant south- southeast winds that have been over the area will shift more southwesterly for a brief period on Monday afternoon as the frontal boundary moves over Florida late Monday into Tuesday. Continued high rain chances with numerous to widespread showers and storms expected for most of next week as this frontal boundary stalls out and remains stretched from west to east across north central Florida. The other effects we will see for the mid to late part of next week is increasing northeast winds over the northeastern Gulf as a tight pressure gradient sets up between the frontal boundary over Florida and strong high pressure encompassing the eastern seaboard.

Near seasonal temperatures expected each day through next Monday with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s and daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. A slight cool down is expected starting next Tuesday and continuing through the end of next week as a cold front remains stretched across the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Outside of showers and storms, VFR conditions prevail through the period. East-southeast winds around 5-8 knots expected overnight, then increasing to 8-10 knots starting around 13Z and continuing through the evening around 00Z. Showers and storms will develop over southwest Florida and move northward through the day. Will cover this with VCTS starting at 17Z and TEMPO TSRA between 19-00Z. Some MVFR/occasional IFR conditions for VSBY and CIG restrictions as well as gusty winds can be expected in the vicinity of storms.

MARINE

Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

High pressure near Bermuda will ridge west-southwest into the eastern Gulf through the weekend. This will bring increasing southeast winds to 15 to 20 knots and seas will also build to around 3 to 6 feet with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions for today. These breezy southeast winds and moderate seas will continue through this evening, then decreasing to around 10-15 knots and seas around 2-3 feet on Saturday and Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue in the forecast into the weekend. A frontal boundary moves through the waters next week and will lead to increasing winds and building seas back to cautionary or potentially advisory levels by mid week. High rain and storm chances will continue into most of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

High rain chances expected for all of west central and southwest Florida for the latter part of the week and into the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and storms possible each afternoon. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than 15 mph. No other fire weather concerns anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 76 87 76 / 70 60 50 40 FMY 89 76 89 76 / 60 20 60 20 GIF 90 75 90 74 / 70 30 50 30 SRQ 90 75 88 74 / 70 60 60 40 BKV 91 73 90 72 / 70 50 40 30 SPG 88 76 87 76 / 70 60 50 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.