textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler temperatures return later today and tonight. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for tonight and a Freeze Watch is in effect for Monday night/Tuesday morning.

- High fire danger for the Nature Coast this afternoon and for the entire forecast area Monday afternoon.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected through Monday night into Tuesday along with a high risk for rip currents.

UPDATE

Issued at 821 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

The cold front is now to the south of the forecast area with clearing skies and drier conditions moving into the region. Northwesterly winds have increased behind the departing front with some wind gusts to 30-40 mph at times. These higher gusts are generally limited to along the coast but even inland winds are gusting to 20-30 mph. Cooler air is also moving in behind the front with overnight lows tonight forecast down in the mid 30s to mid 40s. The combination of cold temperatures and strong winds will lead to wind chill values in the mid 20s to mid 30s areawide. Due to this, there is a cold weather advisory in effect for most of the area overnight tonight and in Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Cooler and drier air has started to filter into the northern part of the forecast area this afternoon behind a frontal boundary located over central Florida. We still have a broken line of showers headed toward southwest Florida, but these will soon be out of our forecast area. The next few days will feature a couple of colder mornings, with a few hazards in place. There is a Cold Weather Advisory in effect tonight into Monday morning for portions of the area as breezy winds will lead to lower wind chills, followed by a Freeze Watch for Tuesday morning as that still looks like the coldest morning of the week. Some inland locations will likely see a hard freeze while freezing temperatures will be seen for most of the forecast area outside of the coast. Most if not all of that area will likely be upgraded to a warning later tonight.

The rest of the week will feature a rather quick warm-up as surface high pressure shifts eastward. Temperatures will be closer to normal Wednesday afternoon after a cool start to the morning, then Thursday through the weekend we'll see highs in the upper 70s to lower or even mid 80s once again. Another weather system comes through late Friday into Saturday, bringing our next chance for rain.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF cycle. The main aviation impact will be the gusty winds. Northwest winds could gust to near 30 kts at times.

MARINE

Issued at 107 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A cold front is moving through the region today, with winds turning northwest and increasing to advisory levels along with some gusts to gale force. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all zones through Monday night before conditions improve Tuesday through the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 107 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Much drier air has started to move into the region behind a frontal boundary, and with gusty winds also in place, the Red Flag Warning continues for several Nature Coast counties this afternoon. For tomorrow afternoon, the drier air will be over the entire area and gusty winds will remain, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect. Low relative humidity values continue into mid-week, but winds diminish, so there are no other Red Flag concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 73 44 55 37 / 60 0 0 0 FMY 79 43 62 36 / 50 0 0 0 GIF 77 40 57 33 / 60 0 0 0 SRQ 74 46 57 38 / 50 0 0 0 BKV 73 33 55 26 / 50 0 0 0 SPG 74 50 57 44 / 60 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy- Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Polk-Sumter.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.