textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms.

- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall mainly in urban areas with the stronger thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 711 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of shower and thunderstorm activity. Scattered showers over the Gulf are moving north- northeast toward the coast this morning and could cause brief restrictions before additional storms develop this afternoon. Most convection should be east of the terminals by this evening with a quiet overnight expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 Weak high pressure will remain over the region through the weekend and into early next week. W/V imagery clearly shows deep tropical moisture entrenched over west central and southwest Florida with PCPW values in excess of 2 inches. Transition day today as the surface ridge axis will lift north of the forecast area with boundary layer flow shifting from the southeast, to the west/southwest. This will change the timing of shower/storms across the area with initiation over the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon, spreading inland and increasing in areal coverage during the mid/late afternoon. The abundant deep layer moisture will continue the risk for locally heavy rain. A few waterspouts have occurred during the late afternoon/early evening hours the past couple of days. With the change in boundary layer winds, the best chance for a waterspout over the next couple of days will switch to the morning hours.

Similar pattern will persist over the weekend with onshore boundary layer flow causing shower/storm activity to develop over the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon, then pushing inland and increasing in areal coverage creating highest pops over the interior. PCPW values will decrease a bit dropping back into the 1.90 to 2.10 inch range, which will still be sufficient for numerous showers/storms.

Early next week, slightly drier air aloft will advect over portions of the central and southern forecast area. Onshore flow will persist with highest pops north and interior.

More significant drier air aloft will push over the forecast area mid/late week as surface high pressure over the western Atlantic builds over the peninsula. This will aid in decreasing areal coverage of afternoon showers/storms...with highest pops south in area of best available deep layer moisture.

MARINE

Issued at 1210 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters for the next several days with relatively light winds and seas. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the late night and morning hours, during the next several days which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1210 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 78 91 79 / 50 10 40 10 FMY 92 77 92 77 / 40 30 60 30 GIF 94 75 94 76 / 60 30 50 30 SRQ 91 77 91 78 / 30 10 50 10 BKV 92 73 92 74 / 60 10 50 10 SPG 90 79 90 80 / 40 10 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.