textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each day this weekend. Rain coverage will become more widespread Monday through Thursday, with higher rain totals

- Winds over the eastern Gulf waters will remain near 15 knots today and tonight then will subside on Sunday. Winds will increase again late Tuesday through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The southerly flow we have seen over the last couple of days will continue. This flow has helped to bring tropical moisture over the state with the PW on this morning sounding once again around 2.35. This is again near record PW for the date. This will bring scattered showers and storms into the forecast through the afternoon and evening hours. Models are keeping this trend in place through the weekend.

As we head into early next week a cold front will stall across north Florida. This amazingly will increase our PWs even more. If models are right we could be approaching 2.5 PW early next week. This will lead to cloudy skies and widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms. This front looks to go no where through the week which will keep the cloudy and wet conditions in place. Current forecast is keeping rainfall totals between 1-3 inches for most of us during the week. However we could see totals closer to 4 to 6 inches across the Nature Coast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will be around for most of the TAF period. We will see scattered storms mainly in the evening hours. Any storms that disrupt area terminals are expected to clear out again by around 01-02z this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Winds will continue to be out of the south and southeast through the weekend. We will also see one more night of increased winds around 15 knots before calming down to around 10 to 15 knots Sunday afternoon. The southerly winds will continue to bring a lot of moisture up from the caribbean resulting in scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf. Shower chances will remain for early next week with winds continuing out of the south and southeast around 5 to 15 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Deeper layer moisture in across the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the middle part of the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 76 89 76 / 60 50 40 40 FMY 90 76 91 76 / 60 40 60 30 GIF 89 75 92 74 / 60 30 50 40 SRQ 89 75 90 75 / 50 40 40 30 BKV 89 73 91 73 / 70 60 50 40 SPG 87 77 88 77 / 60 50 40 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.