textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous to dangerous marine conditions today through Friday morning. Inexperienced mariners should remain in harbor until conditions improve.

- A prolonged and significant cooldown begins today. While Friday morning will be the coldest, another front moving through on Sunday will bring a reinforcing bout of similarly cold temps early next week. Protect sensitive vegetation and exposed outdoor pipes, dress appropriately, and know the signs of hypothermia.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Temperatures have been slowly dropping throughout the day as the cold front is now to the south and east of the area. Gusty northwesterly winds are advecting drier and colder air into the region. There are a few lingering showers early this afternoon but these should exit the area in the next couple of hours. The coldest air of the season will arrive later tonight. Temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 20s across the Nature Coast with low to mid 30s across southwest Florida. Winds will remain elevated overnight around 5 mph or so. Due to this, do not expect any widespread frost, although, patchy frost will be possible in sheltered areas away from the wind. This colder air is thanks to an amplified trough across the Eastern U.S. This pattern will feature additional cold fronts throughout the forecast period with one on Sunday and then another around mid-week next week.

High temperatures on Friday will not reach the 60 degree mark from the I-4 corridor northwards with low to mid 60s to the south. Friday night into Saturday morning will be another cold night. Winds will decouple with surface high pressure centered over the Florida Penesula. Based on the latest guidance, it looks like frost will be possible Saturday morning from generally Pasco county to the north. Lows will range from low to mid 30s across the Nature Coast to low to mid 40s across southwest Florida. Saturday will be the warmest day of the upcoming holiday weekend with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s across most of the area.

The next front will arrive on Sunday. There are still some timing issues to sort out in the models with the ECMWF being a bit quicker than the GFS. Regardless, rain chances will return to the forecast on Sunday. These rain chances will be on the lower end with the timing uncertainty and the available moisture will be lower than with the front today. PW values do climb to around 1 inch, which is above the climatological mean for mid-January. For now, PoPS are around 40-60% north of I-4 with lower chances to the south. Rainfall amounts look to remain below a tenth of an inch.

The main story will be the cold air behind this front as another widespread freeze will be possible Monday morning. However, in this case, high pressure settles into the area much quicker and winds should be light Sunday night and into Monday morning. This will lead to a rather high chance for a widespread frost Monday morning. High temperatures will be well below average on Monday ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. Another frost/freeze will be possible across the Nature Coast Tuesday and Wednesday morning as another front moves through the region. A warming trend will finally begin late in the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Mostly VFR conditions as of early this afternoon. A few showers continue to linger, mainly across the southern terminals of KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW. Gusty northwesterly winds will continue throughout the afternoon with gusts up to 30 kts or so possible. Expect this precipitation will come to an end around 20z. Drier and colder air will advect in behind the departing front overnight. Northwesterly winds will begin to subside later this evening and shift to the North and then Northeast closer to daybreak.

MARINE

Issued at 112 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Gusty northwesterly winds are ongoing with a Small Craft Advisory in effect until 1 AM Friday morning. Winds do begin to subside overnight and into the day on Friday. Winds will pick up late Saturday and into Sunday ahead of the next approaching front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 112 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Precipitation is coming to an end as the front exits the area. Much drier and cooler air will move into the area overnight. RH values will be below critical thresholds tomorrow but winds will remain light. Moisture will increase some on Saturday with the next cold front forecast on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 61 36 60 44 / 40 0 0 0 FMY 68 36 66 47 / 80 0 0 0 GIF 61 32 61 42 / 40 0 0 0 SRQ 65 35 61 44 / 70 0 0 0 BKV 58 26 61 33 / 30 0 0 0 SPG 63 41 61 51 / 50 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.