textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Light showers and a stray storm today over SW Florida.

- Cooler temperatures today, then warming trend the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

A frontal boundary has stalled out over southern Florida. The associated cloudiness remains over the area from the I-4 corridor southward over central and southwest Florida. Radar and surface observations have shown some very light rainshowers through the morning and latest HRRR guidance continues to show the possibility of some more light showers and maybe a stray storm into the afternoon and evening hours, especially over southwest Florida. After starting off on the cool side in the 60s for most of the region, temps will be slow to warm up and will top out only in the mid 70s to low 80s this afternoon. Overnight lows tonight will dip into the mid 50s north and mid 60s for central and southwest Florida.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies and mostly rain-free conditions expected for most of the day on Monday, with some clearing expected by late afternoon and evening as the frontal boundary erodes and high pressure builds into the area from the north. Rain-free conditions expected to continue on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will also be a bit warmer topping out in the mid 80s on Monday afternoon and overnight lows in the 60s. The warming trend will continue for most of next week with high temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s and overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s.

A weak front will move through the southeast U.S. and across northern Florida on Thursday and Friday producing a chance of showers and a stray storm, with the highest chances (20-40 percent) over the northeast Gulf and Nature Coast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Areas of MVFR CIGs between 010-050 expected to continue at all terminals except TPA/PIE, where VFR is expected to prevail. A few light showers will also be possible for PGD/FMY/RSW, so will cover this with VCSH for now and monitor through the day for the need of TEMPO groups in heavier showers or a stray storm. Winds will remain around 8-12 knots during the afternoon, decreasing to around 4-6 knots overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Interaction between high pressure to the north and a frontal boundary over south Florida will keep a northeast wind flow around 15 knots and 2-4 foot seas over the eastern Gulf Waters through Monday afternoon. Conditions will improve late Monday through the end of the week with winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less. A stray shower may be possible during the forecast period, but overall, rain-free conditions expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

A low chance of rain will be possible over southwest Florida today, but most of the region will stay rain-free. Some dry air will filter into the region today and Monday with some critical RH values possible north of Tampa Bay along the interior counties along the Nature Coast. The winds will decrease today and Monday, precluding the need for a Red Flag Warning. Rain-free and warming conditions expected for most of next week until Thursday and Friday when a weak front moves across northern Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 67 86 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 FMY 68 86 69 90 / 40 20 20 20 GIF 65 85 65 89 / 10 10 10 20 SRQ 66 87 67 88 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 58 87 60 90 / 10 0 10 10 SPG 72 88 73 89 / 10 10 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.