textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue into mid week.

- Breezy areawide with a slight chance of showers interior and southwest Florida.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

CONUS U/L pattern remains amplified as per previous forecasts with a W U.S. trough, C/E U.S. ridge and E Seaboard trough. Strong surface high pressure centered over the NE U.S. ridges south into the region resulting in a tightened gradient locally as a remnant boundary/surface trough extends across the Bahamas and Cuba. Breezy E/NE winds across the area, with gusts up to 30-35 mph this afternoon, will continue locally under this setup over the next few days along with a chance of showers across areas toward the interior and into parts of SWFL as showers push westward across the peninsula. Temps will remain near climatic normals the next few days with highs in the lower to mid 80s and morning lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

U/L pattern relaxes a bit by mid week as E Seaboard troughing fills and shifts into the W Atlantic while the C/E U.S. ridging weakens slightly and shifts to the E U.S. and E Seaboard. Moisture recovers a bit locally with PWATs increasing to around 1.5 inches area wide over the latter half of the week allowing isolated to scattered shower chances to return to most areas. Overall QPF footprint remains fairly low, however, with 7-day totals up to around a quarter-inch for most interior and SWFL locations, and lower elsewhere. Winds remain on the breezier side although a few mph lower than the early-week period. Temps warm under the expected ridging with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s with morning lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Mainly VFR through the period with gusty NE winds. Embedded showers within the brisk flow may occasionally spread far enough across W FL to briefly impact terminals. Winds remain elevated and gusty through the period, up to 25 knots at times this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Strong winds and large choppy seas will keep hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters into mid week, with near- gale force wind gusts through Monday evening. Small craft operators should remain in port until conditions improve later in the week. The persistent offshore wind flow will also cause tides to run below astronomical levels through much of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Gusty NE winds and mostly dry conditions aside from shower chances mainly over the interior continue through early this week, with no fire weather hazards expected through the period as sufficient low level moisture remains in place to keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 69 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 85 71 86 71 / 30 10 0 0 GIF 85 69 85 68 / 20 10 10 0 SRQ 85 69 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 85 65 84 63 / 0 10 10 0 SPG 83 70 83 69 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.