textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing rain chances through the weekend. Strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are likely.

- A low, 30 percent, chance of a low pressure system formation in the Eastern Gulf through 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 An upper-level low and attendant surface wave continue over the eastern Gulf/west coast of Florida this afternoon, with current radar showing scattered storms across the region, generally moving northwest. For the rest of today and into tonight, convection is forecast to die down over land, with storms continuing over the Gulf as a surface low starts to form. The upper and surface features will slowly move northeastward through the weekend, with waves of showers and storms expected periodically. These will bring pockets of heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds at just about any time. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be highest at the coast, with totals through early next week up to around 6 inches. Some spots could certainly see more than that and any training storms could bring a risk of nuisance or minor flooding. On the flip side of all this, there is also a non-zero chance that some of these waves of rainfall could form a bit more to the west and could actually end up missing the coast or at least dumping the higher amounts over the water. Definitely a tricky forecast.

This system eventually lifts out and diminishes mid-week, with the surface Atlantic ridge axis building back over the region even as troughing continues over the eastern U.S. Rain chances go back to more diurnally-driven until a surface trough drops into north Florida for the end of the week, possibly leading to an increase in rain chances for the northern part of the forecast area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 221 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 A cluster of thunderstorms will linger near KTPA and KPIE for the next couple of hours. Activity is generally shifting northwestward and other sites remain rain-free this afternoon. The rest of the day and tonight will feature lower chances, though the forecast remains a tough one and another round of rain could come earlier than currently forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 221 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 A tropical wave slowly moving over the eastern Gulf will produce a tightening pressure gradient with northwest to west flow today shifting to southwest for the weekend. Waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected periodically, with higher winds and seas likely in or near storms through this weekend and into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 221 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Westerly flow will continue over the region into the weekend with increasing moisture keeping relative humidity values above critical levels. Deeper moisture and waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend and into early next week, with gusty and erratic winds and frequent lightning possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 89 78 89 / 60 50 60 70 FMY 77 91 78 92 / 40 60 50 50 GIF 74 93 75 92 / 30 50 20 70 SRQ 76 90 78 90 / 60 60 70 80 BKV 72 92 73 91 / 40 60 60 90 SPG 78 88 79 88 / 70 60 70 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.