textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Increasing rain chances through the weekend. Strong gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are possible.
- Hot and humid summertime conditions continue with heat index values of 100 to 107 daily. Practice heat safety when spending time outdoors.
DISCUSSION
Guidance brings increased moisture along the NE Gulf and Nature Coast this morning with W flow PoPs into the Tampa Bay area through the late morning hours before the convection moves inland during the afternoon hours with warm and humid conditions continuing.
Unsettled conditions expected to develop Friday and continue through the weekend as an upper level trough deepens along the eastern U.S. seaboard southward into the old TUTT in the E Gulf. At the surface, a tropical wave is expected to move over the state and E Gulf this weekend with further development possible into the W Atlantic early next week.
This setup will bring increasing moisture and much higher rain chances to the area. This system moves away from Florida early next week with rain chances gradually diminishing by midweek.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions expected with westerly wind flow for VCTS at TPA/PIE from around 12-17Z and LAL around 16-22Z. Drier conditions at southern terminals through the forecast period.&&
MARINE
Slowly tightening pressure gradient expected to increase northwest to west winds and seas over the eastern Gulf waters through Friday. Winds shift to southwesterly over the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. As the flow increases through this weekend hazardous Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible into early next week.
FIRE WEATHER
Westerly flow over the region will keep the warm and humid summertime conditions in place with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Deeper moisture and more numerous convection is expected for Friday through the weekend. Gusty erratic winds and frequent lightning possible with the thunderstorms.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 80 91 79 / 40 50 60 70 FMY 96 79 93 78 / 10 20 50 50 GIF 95 76 93 75 / 50 20 70 30 SRQ 94 79 92 78 / 20 60 70 80 BKV 93 76 92 73 / 50 40 60 60 SPG 92 80 90 79 / 40 60 70 80
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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