textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued chance of showers/storms late tonight/early Tuesday

- Pattern change by mid week as east southeast flow develops

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 726 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 The flood watch and high risk of rip currents will be allowed to expire at 8 PM.

W/V imagery continues to indicate deep tropical moisture over west central and southwest Florida with a cut-off low over the southeast U.S. with rather deep west to southwest flow persisting over the forecast area. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will redevelop over the coastal waters after midnight and advect locally onshore late tonight/Tuesday morning. The U/L low is expected to lift out and away from the region Tuesday and Tuesday night with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic building over the Florida peninsula. This will allow east to southeast boundary layer flow to develop mid week and will create a more typical summertime pattern with scattered to numerous mid/late afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with highest pops likely over the coastal counties along the west coast sea breeze boundary.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The strong upper level southwesterly flow and high moisture content is continuing to give us widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms along the west coast of Florida. For the most part this rain has been a welcomed sight for out drought stricken area but a few spots have seen a little to much rain to quickly causing some minor flooding. This trend will continue through Tuesday.

By Wednesday PW drop slightly to be more around average for this time of year. At the same time ridging starts to build back in and shift north. This will shift our winds to a more easterly direction. So this will keep our favorable storm chances in the area however it will look more "summer like" then what we have seen the last few days. What I mean by that is that most storms will be occurringalong the sea breeze in the late afternoon and evening hours along the west coast compared to the more stratiform precip we have seen. This trend looks to stick around through the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 726 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 VFR CIGs will prevail overnight at all terminals. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will redevelop over the coastal waters overnight and will advect locally onshore west central/southwest Florida late with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs vcnty all terminals with the exception of LAL through early afternoon on Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The wet pattern will continue with a light south to southwesterly flow through Tuesday. By Wednesday winds will start to shift more easterly and start to see less shower activity in the Gulf. Any storms we see starting on Wednesday will be pushing off the west coast in the evening hours. Winds will start to increase on Friday with exercise caution possible by the afternoon hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A strong southwest flow with abundant moisture has help to bring beneficial rain to our coastal areas over the last several days. This pattern will continue through Tuesday. After that we will see a shift to a more easterly flow regime which will bring a more typical summertime weather pattern with scattered afternoon and evening storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 88 77 89 / 50 50 20 60 FMY 78 91 76 91 / 10 50 30 80 GIF 75 90 74 90 / 20 60 30 70 SRQ 77 89 75 90 / 30 40 20 60 BKV 73 89 72 90 / 60 60 10 60 SPG 79 87 78 88 / 40 50 20 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.