textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

UPDATE

Issued at 830 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Drier conditions overall today with U/L ridging building over the area and lower PW values spanning most of the area compared to 24 hours ago. Showers and storms managed to form this afternoon and evening, primarily across the southern half of the interior and across coastal areas, although as of this evening most activity is confined to Citrus and Levy counties. Diminishing activity into tonight with partly cloudy skies and lows in the 60 expected. No changes needed to the existing forecast.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Cu clouds have been filling in decorating the skies across the state. High pressure continues to dominate weather conditions over the region. ACAR soundings show slightly drier air but not enough to completely keep any showers from developing along the sea breeze. Likewise, the already unstable atmosphere has been taking in all of the daytime heating. The missing factor right now is when and if the sea breeze will it form and how far inland it will make it. Pockets of drier air should continue to push in from the east, so the higher chances will lay where the highest moisture availability exists. If showers get to develop, temperatures aloft are cold enough to support small hail once again today. The highest chances expected along the coast, especially in northern and central portions of the state.

Most of the activity will push offshore where some of the guidance keeps it through most of the evening. Overnight lows drop into the mid to upper 60s. For Saturday, the aforementioned dry air will advect into the areas high pressure builds. This will keep rain chances low with afternoon highs climbing into upper 80s.

LONG TERM (SUN-THU)

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

By early next week, moisture will gradually increase as U/L disturbance and associated front approach the region. As a result, rain chances increase and linger through much of the week. Additionally, cloud coverage will prevent temperatures from reaching 80 degrees both Tuesday and in some areas on Wednesday. Advisory level winds are possible mid week with temperatures returning to near normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR expected across terminals through the period with easterly flow except during the afternoon when coastal WCFL terminals will attempt to turn onshore with the sea breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend. East to southeasterly winds below cautionary level prevail. There are chances of showers and storms this afternoon along the coast and potentially lingering over the water through the evening hours. Drier air should filter on Saturday and parts of Sunday keeping rain chances low. Then, a cold front will move over the waters early next week with winds shifting to the north and northwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Area of high pressure dominates over the region. Drier air will be advecting across fire districts through the weekend. Minimum humidity values will remain above critical levels with east to southeasterly winds prevailing. By early next week, a cold front will increase rain chances back into the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 69 88 69 87 / 20 0 0 30 FMY 66 88 68 88 / 0 10 0 50 GIF 66 88 67 89 / 0 10 0 60 SRQ 67 88 67 85 / 10 0 0 30 BKV 62 89 62 88 / 10 0 0 30 SPG 73 88 72 87 / 20 0 0 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.