textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 815 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Above normal temps with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees in the afternoons continue through the week. - Increasing shower and storm chances expected through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 815 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Recent radar imagery shows lingering showers and a few storms across the region this evening but this activity should mostly taper off by around midnight as instability fades. However, there may be some shower activity that lingers most of the night as deep moisture remains in place but the low-level southeasterly flow should keep most activity that develops tonight offshore. Otherwise, it will be another warm and humid night with lows in the 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 The surface ridge axis remains across north Florida today, with a light southeast flow continuing across the local area. This will allow the west coast sea breeze to develop and start to push inland, reaching near or just east of the I-75 corridor. This will be where the best rain chances reside through the rest of the afternoon and evening before the circulation collapses and activity drifts back westward after dark. A very similar pattern is forecast for tomorrow.

For Friday into the weekend, the ridge axis shifts south, leading to a more westerly flow across the forecast area. This will put us back into the pattern of early morning showers and storms over the Gulf that shift onshore and then eventually inland and over to the east coast by the afternoon and evening hours. This pattern then holds

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 742 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Lingering SHRA this evening may lead to some VSBY restrictions at the start of the TAF period but any precip activity should taper off after midnight. However, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop again on Thursday with highest rain chances from around 18Z-00Z so additional restrictions may occur at times, particularly during periods of heavier precipitation. Otherwise, winds fall to less than 5 kts overnight with winds increasing to 5-10 kts tomorrow and shift onshore during the afternoon as the sea breeze develops.

MARINE

Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 High pressure north of the area will keep southeast flow in place in the morning before the sea breeze turns winds onshore in the afternoon. The best rain chances will be after dark as storms over land shift back westward toward the Gulf. Winds become west to southwest for Friday into the weekend, with the best rain chances overnight and into the morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative humidity values remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 90 78 90 / 30 60 20 40 FMY 75 92 76 92 / 40 40 30 60 GIF 74 92 75 93 / 50 60 30 70 SRQ 75 90 77 90 / 40 50 10 30 BKV 72 93 74 92 / 30 60 20 30 SPG 77 91 79 91 / 30 50 10 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.