textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet pattern to continue for the next several days.

- Warm and humid conditions with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Weak surface high pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula for the next several days with generally east to southeast boundary layer flow. This will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties each day, and will be the focus for enhanced convection during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Deep tropical moisture will persist over the forecast area with PCPW values over 2 inches, which will continue the risk for locally heavy rain, and flooding of urban and flood prone areas. The additional rainfall will also increase the risk for river flooding across portions of the area, mainly from the Tampa Bay area and south. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normals through the period.

Some drier air aloft may advect over the region by the middle of next week which could decrease areal coverage of afternoon storms and the risk for heavy rainfall.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026 VFR CIGs AOA 120 will persist for the next several hours, then becoming partly cloudy late. Increasing cloudiness on Thursday with SCT LCL BKN 025-035 developing vcnty all terminals during the late morning/early afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop during the mid/late afternoon and may impact all terminals for a few hours with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Weak high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with winds below cautionary levels each day. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, which may cause locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as abundant moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 78 90 79 / 60 40 70 30 FMY 92 77 92 77 / 60 40 70 40 GIF 94 76 93 76 / 60 30 70 30 SRQ 92 76 91 77 / 60 40 50 30 BKV 93 74 91 74 / 60 30 70 30 SPG 90 78 89 79 / 60 40 60 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.