textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 729 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for the next several days. Heavy rainfall is the primary concern, along with frequent lightning and gusty winds.

- An increasingly wet pattern is expected over the weekend and into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 729 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across the SWFL coast this morning. Morning ACARS soundings and preliminary 12 sounding data suggests a very moist atmosphere up and down the FL West Coast, with PWATs at or exceeding 2 inches. There is also already modest instability, with over 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE. Thus, the expectation is for shower and thunderstorm development to continue near and along the coast through the morning, gradually pushing inland as the day progresses, consolidating near the FL East Coast later this afternoon/evening. The greatest potential for shower and storm activity along the FL West Coast is this morning. There should be some slight stabilization this afternoon. However, the atmosphere will remain very moist.

Given just how saturated the atmosphere is and the relatively lighter WSW flow that is now in place across the region, heavy rainfall is the primary concern today. The setup could allow for some training of cells, but regardless rainfall rates will be very efficient. The good news is that soils are not particularly saturated at this time, so the main concern would be in urban areas where heavy rainfall could overwhelm storm water drainage systems.

Overall, the forecast for today looks on track. However, the forecast for tomorrow morning looks a little too dry. PWATs will remain elevated, and enough instability should remain to at least support scattered showers, even if they do not grow very tall. Otherwise, no changes are needed at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 729 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

With a WSW flow now in place, the window for thunderstorm impacts at terminals has shifted earlier in the day. Some ongoing storms will continue to move into the vicinity of SWFL terminals this morning, and additional activity is favored to redevelop near Tampa Bay Area terminals in the next couple hours. By mid-afternoon, storms should be pushing east, with dry VFR weather at the coast through the afternoon and evening. Some scattered showers could pop up again in the pre-dawn hours and move into the vicinity of coastal terminals around Tampa Bay. However, the overall expectation is for a slightly drier day tomorrow with shorter windows for impacts. Greater coverage and thus a higher potential for impacts returns this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 Radar remains quite active, although the vast majority of the showers and isolated thunderstorms were located over the coastal waters. Outflow boundaries from convection over land have pushed offshore...and an outflow boundary from convection over the water has been moving east toward the coast. A band of showers/isolated storms has formed just off the coast along the collision zone of these boundaries. The showers/storms may push back toward the coast and move locally onshore with locally heavy rain possible. W/V imagery clearly shows a sharp gradient of deep tropical moisture over the eastern Gulf and much drier air aloft over portions of the Florida peninsula and the western Atlantic. Strong mid level moisture convergence over the eastern Gulf is also aiding convective instability and continued showers/storms along with the boundary collisions. The area of deep tropical moisture over the Gulf with PCPW values of over 2 inches will translate east over the forecast area tonight with the showers/storms likely advecting onshore overnight. Can't rule out local training of showers/storms which could produce heavy rain/flooding of low lying flood prone areas along with significant ponding of water on roadways.

Numerous showers/storms expected on Thursday. Boundary layer winds will shift from the south in the morning to the southwest/west in the afternoon. As morning shower/thunderstorm activity pushes inland, additional showers/storms will likely redevelop in their wake back toward the coast during the afternoon hours and again move inland. Locally heavy rain will be possible as training of cells may occur.

PCPW values will drop a bit on Friday, but will still be in the 1.9 to 2 inch range, more than sufficient for numerous showers and thunderstorms. Onshore flow will promote highest pops over the interior during the mid/late afternoon.

Onshore boundary layer flow will persist over the weekend and into Monday with slightly drier air aloft advecting over the region. NBM POPs appear to be a bit overdone. The overall pattern favors scattered morning/early afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the coastal counties that will push inland during the afternoon hours and increase in areal coverage...with again highest pops inland.

Tuesday looks to be a transition day as deep layer moisture will be on the increase associated with a frontal boundary expected to sink south over the central Florida peninsula. Quite a bit of uncertainty in the longer range of the forecast period as boundary layer flow looks to shift to the east as high pressure builds over the mid Atlantic and extends down over the Florida peninsula. This would shift highest pops back toward the coastal counties for Wednesday and Thursday.

Clouds/rain will likely hold temps down on Thursday near climatic normals...but temperatures should rebound on Friday and run several degrees above climatic normals through the remainder of the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 Weak surface high pressure will hold over the waters through much of the forecast period with winds/seas below cautionary levels each day. Main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms which may create locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region through the period which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 77 89 79 / 70 20 30 10 FMY 89 76 91 77 / 50 30 20 10 GIF 90 74 91 76 / 80 30 40 20 SRQ 88 76 90 78 / 60 30 30 10 BKV 89 74 90 75 / 70 20 30 20 SPG 89 78 91 79 / 60 20 30 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.