textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 829 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Moderate rain chances return to southwest Florida today, with limited chances north of the I-4 corridor.

- Higher rain and storm chances return second half of the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A weak front extending through the Florida Straits will slowly lift northward today bringing increasing moisture to the area. Models are showing this moisture increase with PWAT values back up to around 1.7 - 2.0 inches over southwest Florida. This is where the highest POPs are expected today, starting during the morning hours. Some showers and a stray storm possible over the eastern Gulf waters early this morning and moving over the SW Florida coastal region through the morning and afternoon hours. Most areas north of the I-4 corridor will stay rain-free today, as drier air with PWAT values around 1.4 - 1.6 inches are expected.

By Wednesday morning, a trough of low pressure extends from the Florida Straits, northeastward north of the Bahamas. North of Florida, broad surface high pressure is located over the mid- Atlantic states and ridges southwest through the southeast U.S. This will bring back a predominant east through southeast wind flow over the Florida peninsula. PWAT values will be up to 1.6 - 2.0 inches across most of west central and southwest Florida. This will equate to scattered to numerous showers and storms across the region on Wednesday afternoon.

By Thursday morning, the surface high has moved off the Carolina coastline and continues to ridge west-southwestward over Florida and into the eastern Gulf. PWAT values starting on Thursday will be up to 2+ inches across the Florida peninsula. This pattern will hold through the end of the week and into the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected each afternoon during that time period.

With the increasing moisture and rain chances through the period, temperatures and humidity will also be on the rise. Overnight lows this morning and Wednesday morning will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, then low to mid 70s for the remainder of the forecast period. Near seasonal daytime highs expected with upper 80s to low 90s each day.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 829 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

An upper level trough pushing through South Florida will bring unsettled weather with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the day. West central Florida will remain dry with VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Light south through southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet will continue through Wednesday. Some showers and storms will be possible in the Gulf this morning and afternoon mainly south of Tampa Bay. High pressure off the Carolina coastline will ridge west-southwest into the eastern Gulf starting Thursday and continuing through Saturday. This will bring an increase to the winds to 15 to 20 knots out of the southeast with SCEC conditions possible. Scattered showers and storms will continue in the forecast for the latter part of the week and into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Moisture and rain chances will increase starting today, with the highest chances over southwest Florida. Rain chances further increase for all of west central and southwest Florida the latter part of the week with scattered to numerous showers and storms possible each afternoon. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than 15 mph. No other fire weather concerns anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 72 87 73 / 20 20 60 20 FMY 85 72 87 73 / 60 30 70 30 GIF 88 71 89 72 / 10 20 50 10 SRQ 86 72 87 73 / 50 40 60 30 BKV 89 67 89 68 / 10 10 60 20 SPG 86 73 86 74 / 30 20 60 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.