textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns with storms that do form.

- Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

A weak low is over the mid-Atlantic states with troughing extending southwestward through the southeast U.S. Closer to Florida, weak high pressure ridging westward across the central part of the state and into the eastern Gulf is producing light winds across the area. As seen on the 12Z morning upper air sounding, a very moist environment is over the area with a PWAT of 2.38 inches. These light winds and very moist environment with PWAT values between 2.0 - 2.4 inches will stick around for the next couple of days. We can expect slow moving showers and storms through the day. Latest HRRR guidance has showers and storms along the west coast filling in over the inland areas through the afternoon, with the highest rain and storm chances over SW Florida. Some localized flooding may be possible in these slow moving storms. A similar pattern is expected again on Monday with early morning showers and storms over the eastern Gulf waters and then traversing inland through the afternoon hours.

By Tuesday afternoon, a weak frontal boundary and troughing near Bermuda extends southwestward north of the Bahamas, across south Florida and into the southeast Gulf. Strong high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest through the southeast U.S. and into the central Gulf. A tight pressure gradient will begin to set up over Florida with increasing northeast winds. PWAT values slightly drop to 1.7 - 2.2 inches on Tuesday, which is abundant moisture for scattered to numerous showers and storms again on Tuesday afternoon.

By Wednesday afternoon, upper ridging and surface high pressure continues to ridge over northern Florida, while an upper low and troughing moves northeast of the Bahamas. This will keep gusty northeast winds over the region with some hazardous marine conditions expected over the eastern Gulf waters. Models continue to show some dry air advecting into north central Florida on Wednesday and Thursday with PWAT values dropping to less than 1.5 inches, which will likely limit showers and storm coverage along the Nature Coast. Enough moisture remains over SW Florida for scattered to numerous showers and storms. Similar weather conditions expected on Thursday and Friday with northeast winds continuing and the highest rain chances located over SW Florida.

Moisture rebounds by next Saturday with PWAT values back up over 2 inches for all of west central and southwest Florida. This will produce a typical summertime pattern with scattered to numerous showers and storms area wide each afternoon.

Temperatures will be close to average with daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows remain in the mid to upper 70s through Wednesday, then slightly cooling to the low to mid 70s for the latter part of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions and WSW winds around 5-8 knots prevail through the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. Radar is already showing some showers and storms over the west coast and guidance continues to move them slowly eastward through the afternoon. Will cover this with VCTS/VCSH and TEMPO groups in the forecast through most of the afternoon for all sites. Gusty winds, lower CIGs and VSBY reductions possible in thunderstorms and showers. Southwest terminals (PGD/RSW/FMY) will see storms the latest, but will clear after 00Z, with mostly rain- free conditions expected overnight at all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Daily showers and storms will be possible each day through the forecast period. Outside of storms, winds will remain light today and Monday with speeds around 5 knots and seas less than 2 feet. By Tuesday, an upper level low and troughing will start to approach the area. This will shift our winds to the northeast around 10 to 15 knots. These winds will continue to increase quickly as the low approaches, reaching up to 20 to 25 knots by early Wednesday morning. These gusty northeast winds will stick around through early Friday morning. Seas will also build to around 4-7 feet mid-week. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed on Wednesday and Thursday. Decreasing winds and abating seas expected by the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Abundant moisture with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected through the period. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and winds will be less than 15 mph through Tuesday, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms. Increasing northeast winds to around 15 mph with some higher gusts expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 91 77 91 / 10 50 30 80 FMY 76 92 77 92 / 20 60 40 80 GIF 75 94 76 92 / 20 50 30 80 SRQ 77 92 76 93 / 10 40 30 80 BKV 74 93 74 93 / 10 50 30 70 SPG 79 91 78 92 / 10 40 30 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.