textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 224 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Heat Advisory for the rest of today for most of the area for heat index values up to around 110 degrees. Daily heat index values of 105+ degrees likely to continue through the weekend areawide.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) of severe storms with damaging wind gust threat today from the Nature Coast to interior central and southern locations.

- Increased afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Mid-level ridging extends across the Florida peninsula this afternoon with a shortwave trough over the southeast. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains stretched across the Florida Straits, keeping an onshore boundary layer flow across the local area. For the rest of today, we will continue to see some additional showers and storms pop up with help from the shortwave and these will continue to move generally eastward before activity diminishes overnight.

For the weekend, a series of impulses will move over north Florida while we keep an onshore low-level flow. This setup will keep the best rain chances for the Nature Coast region and then for south of there, the highest concentration of showers and storms will be away from the coast.

Ridging builds back in aloft next week as the surface ridge axis lifts northward a bit, bringing more of a light boundary layer flow. Moisture will decrease, bringing rain chances down some, but still keeping isolated to scattered chances each day, mainly away from the coast once again.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Still a chance for a few storms at the terminals this afternoon, but chances aren't particularly high as activity is widely scattered. Could see some earlier showers around Tampa Bay tomorrow morning, then activity shifts inland yet again.

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026 No headlines expected through the period although showers and storms will be possible mainly over northern and central waters through the weekend. Locally higher winds and seas likely in/near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Warm and humid conditions are expected through the next several days with minimal fire weather concerns. The best rain chances will be for areas north of I-4 and the interior through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 92 80 92 / 10 30 10 20 FMY 79 94 78 94 / 10 30 10 30 GIF 77 94 75 94 / 20 60 30 50 SRQ 79 92 78 92 / 10 20 10 10 BKV 77 92 75 93 / 30 60 30 20 SPG 81 92 80 92 / 10 20 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.