textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will moderate back close to normal by midweek. - Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters starting late Monday and continuing through most of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Upper level troughing will remain along the eastern seaboard for the next few days with a shortwave moving along the northern gulf coast Monday into Tuesday. During midweek the trough will shift out into the Atlantic Ocean, but linger back over Florida, possibly cutting off over the state Thursday before opening up and drifting northeast late in the week. Meanwhile at the surface, strong high pressure will hold over the eastern U.S. setting up an increasing northeasterly flow across the area with temperatures and humidity gradually moderating through the week.

For today we'll start out cool, but with plenty of sunshine we'll see temperatures climb to near 70 degrees north to the mid 70s central and south this afternoon as northeasterly flow continues. Tonight will not be as cool with lows ranging from the upper 40s north to near 60 south.

On Monday we'll begin to see more clouds as the shortwave approaches leading to some mid/high clouds and Atlantic moisture spreads west helping to bring some lower clouds into the area. Enough moisture could setup to allow for a few light showers Monday night as the shortwave moves by with more showers possible Tuesday, but mainly over the interior as breezy northeasterly flow becomes established.

For the rest of the week, the breezy northeasterly flow will persist and continue to bring some Atlantic moisture westward leading to a few light showers/sprinkles each day, but still mainly over the interior.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 235 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with north to northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

High pressure to the north will keep breezy northeasterly winds across the waters through the week with speeds increasing to advisory levels late Monday through much of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Rather dry air will remain over the region through today, but relative humidity will remain above critical levels. Moisture will gradually increase for the rest of the week as breezy northeasterly winds setup.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 73 57 76 62 / 0 0 0 20 FMY 77 60 81 66 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 75 57 77 62 / 0 0 0 20 SRQ 75 58 78 63 / 0 0 0 20 BKV 73 51 76 56 / 0 0 0 20 SPG 73 60 76 64 / 0 0 0 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.