textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast during the morning hours and will push inland during the afternoon and evening for the next several days.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 Weak surface high pressure will hold over the region for the next several days with the ridge axis located south of the forecast area. This will promote onshore west to southwest flow each day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the coastal waters during the late night hours, and will spread locally onshore during the early morning hours. Additional showers/storms will develop over the coastal counties during the late morning/early afternoon, and will spread inland mid/late afternoon and will increase in areal coverage...with highest pops inland. PCPW values above 2 inches combined with slow storm movement will create potential for locally heavy rain and minor flooding of roads and low lying/poor drainage areas.

By midweek, slightly drier air aloft will advect over the forecast area which will decrease areal coverage of storms...however, scattered afternoon showers/storms will develop with highest pops inland as westerly boundary layer flow will persist.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 VFR conditions expected for the next several hours with SCT LCL BKN250 at all terminals. Isolated to scattered showers and storms with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs will develop late tonight over the coastal waters and will spread locally onshore with best chance impacting TPA/PIE/SRQ. Additional showers/storms will develop over the coastal counties during the morning hours...and will spread inland during the afternoon hours. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs potentially briefly impacting terminals with the best chance at LAL during the afternoon hours, and the remaining terminals during the morning/early afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the forecast period with relatively light winds and seas. The main hazard will be isolated to scattered showers and storms during the overnight and morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as abundant low level moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 81 91 81 / 40 30 40 10 FMY 92 78 92 78 / 40 30 50 10 GIF 93 76 94 76 / 60 20 60 30 SRQ 91 79 92 79 / 40 30 40 10 BKV 93 74 93 74 / 40 20 50 10 SPG 91 80 91 81 / 40 30 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.