textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf during the late night and early morning hours will move onshore each morning and then shift inland during the afternoon hours through Tuesday.

- Light southerly flow sets up during midweek with a more typical summertime pattern of scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Southwesterly flow remain over the area today but the big difference today is upper level moisture. Looking at the morning sounding we came in at 2.2 yesterday and today we are seeing 1.9. This drier air aloft in helping to keep the morning showers at bay today. We will see some isolated storms in West Central Florida this afternoon but most should stay dry. This looks to be the same pattern for our Tuesday.

However by Wednesday our pattern starts to change as the ridge lifts slightly north. This will bring moisture back into the mid level and switch our flow mainly out of the south. Technically this bring us into a regime 4 however we are not truly seeing a southeasterly flow. With winds mainly out of the south this will keep a more uniform scattered storm chances throughout the state. This pattern will stick around through Friday.

By Saturday and Sunday riding shifts further north. This will bring us back into a more traditional southeast flow regime that that will favor storm activity closer to the west coast in the late afternoon and evening hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Drier conditions today will keep most of us dry with just some isolated storms around TPA, PIE and LAL. VFR conditions expected through the period with winds mainly out of the west.

MARINE

Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Winds in the Gulf will stay around 5 to 10 knots throughout the week. Wind direction will stay southwesterly through Tuesday before shifting to the south for the rest of the week. Isolated storms will be possible each day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Drier air today and tomorrow will keep shower chances lower before mid level moisture returns brining scattered storms back into the forecast for Wednesday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 79 90 77 / 40 10 30 10 FMY 94 77 95 77 / 20 10 30 20 GIF 94 75 94 75 / 30 10 30 20 SRQ 91 78 92 76 / 40 10 20 10 BKV 92 73 91 72 / 40 20 50 10 SPG 89 79 90 79 / 40 10 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.