textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 750 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- The wet pattern will continue through the weekend and into early next week, with numerous thunderstorms developing each day. Gusty winds and localized flooding will be possible with the strongest storms.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist each day. Highs in the lower 90s will feel more like 100 to 105 due to the humidity.

UPDATE

Issued at 834 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Deep moisture holding across the forecast area allowed for another afternoon of numerous thunderstorms today, with a few areas experiencing heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Thanks to some drier air aloft, some of the strongest storms today were also able to produce wind gusts that approached severe thunderstorm thresholds, especially over southwest Florida.

A few storms are continuing to drift north through the Nature Coast counties early this evening, while light stratiform rain is lingering across southwest Florida and parts of the interior. With the loss of solar heating, this remaining convection is forecast to continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours, with generally rain free conditions returning by midnight.

A few minor changes were made to the rain chances for the rest of the evening to keep up with radar trends. Otherwise, no significant changes are planned for the evening update.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 834 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

With the remaining evening storms moving north of area terminals, rain free and VFR conditions are now expected to hold through the overnight and morning hours. Another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop by around 17-20z Friday, with disruptions possible at all area terminals through the early evening hours as storms move through the area.

MARINE

Issued at 834 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

High pressure will continue to ridge into the eastern Gulf from the Atlantic through early next week with south and southeast flow this weekend becoming more easterly by the start of next week. Winds will generally remain less than headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally higher winds and hazardous boating conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 90 78 91 / 30 50 20 70 FMY 77 93 77 92 / 30 70 30 70 GIF 75 93 76 93 / 30 60 30 70 SRQ 76 91 77 92 / 30 40 20 70 BKV 73 92 74 93 / 30 60 30 70 SPG 78 90 78 90 / 30 50 20 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.