textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the upcoming week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026
High pressure to the north continues to keep the flow out of the east to southeast over the area. Similar to the past couple of days, showers and storms will begin to develop along the east coast of Florida then move inland throughout the day. Showers and storms will likely continue to drift towards the west coast into the early evening. Once again, main concerns will be locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized urban flooding, especially in poor drainage areas. Storms will also have the potential for strong, gusty winds and frequent lightning. This pattern will continue through the week. The remnants of Dolly are also heading towards Florida, which will add more moisture to the mix around mid week. Overall, an active summertime pattern is expected through the end of the week. High temperatures will be in the low 90s through the week as well.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026
After a quiet, VFR start to the morning, showers and storms will begin to move in by late afternoon and linger into the evening. Showers or storms moving over terminals could cause periods of below VFR conditions. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are also possible during storms.
MARINE
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026
Light east to southeasterly winds will continue through the day before shifting onshore as the sea breeze develops. Otherwise, showers and storms are expected to move over the waters later in the afternoon/evening into the overnight hours. Frequent lightning, strong gusty winds and elevated seas will be possible with any storm.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026
Fire weather concerns remain minimal as abundant moisture remains over the area.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 77 90 77 / 60 40 50 40 FMY 92 76 92 76 / 60 40 70 30 GIF 93 75 92 75 / 70 40 60 30 SRQ 91 76 91 75 / 50 30 60 40 BKV 92 73 91 72 / 60 40 60 40 SPG 90 77 89 78 / 50 30 50 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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