textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 124 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day...be prepared to alter outdoor events if lightning and thunder are seen or heard.

- The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will range from late night and morning near the west coast then shifting inland into the interior by late afternoon and evening each day into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 An upper-level trough sits along the U.S. east coast this afternoon, with ridging south of Florida. At the surface, the ridge axis remains south of the area, keeping a west/northwest low-level flow in place. Moisture remains abundant, so each day will see scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf and west coast earlier in the day, followed by higher thunderstorm coverage for the interior and east coast later in the day. This overall setup will continue through the weekend and into next week before switching back to east/southeast flow starting Wednesday, with higher storm coverage over the west coast in the afternoon and evening hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of shower and thunderstorm activity. For the rest of the day, expect most activity to be east of the terminals. A similar pattern is forecast for tomorrow, with earlier showers/storms for area terminals that move to the east through the day.

MARINE

Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 Northwest to west flow will remain in place into early next week with wind speeds 15 knots or less. Deep tropical moisture will persist over the waters during this time leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms at almost anytime, but highest chances will be during the late night and morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels and lower fire weather concern. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 88 79 89 / 20 40 40 40 FMY 78 91 78 92 / 10 20 10 40 GIF 76 89 76 90 / 30 50 20 70 SRQ 78 90 79 90 / 20 30 30 40 BKV 76 88 75 89 / 30 50 40 50 SPG 79 90 80 90 / 20 40 40 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.