textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue to run well above average through midweek with some record high temperatures possible each day.

- Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible during the next couple of mornings.

- Rain chances return Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 820 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

There are some low clouds and fog over the northern Nature Coast, along with a few other areas over the interior, early this morning. This will lift and dissipate over the next couple of hours with partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Moisture remains limited, but just enough that we could see a couple of light showers/sprinkles over the interior and inland southwest Florida later this afternoon and evening, but overall coverage looks very low. Temperatures will climb to around 90 over inland areas this afternoon with a few more record highs possible, while the west coast sea breeze will keep coastal locations in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Current forecast looks good with no changes needed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 820 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF forecast period. East to southeast winds around 5 knots this morning will shift to westerly at 7-11 knots as the sea breeze moves inland this afternoon. Winds will then diminish and become light and variable later this evening and overnight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The current forecast remains stuck on repeat as surface high pressure and upper level ridging work together to keep temperatures high and rain chances low. Another day of possible record breaking heat as high temperatures continue to run well above normal for this time of year. Besides the record heat, another concern today and tomorrow will be the development of fog which could impact morning commutes.

A change in the pattern arrives Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. A line of showers and possible thunderstorms will move through during the day into the evening. Though a major cool down is not expected with this cold front, it will help bring temperatures back down to near average. Moisture hangs around through the weekend increasing the chance for showers each afternoon as SE flow sets up over the area.

Looking further ahead, models are hinting at another, slightly more significant cool down, at the beginning of next week. The 40s could make a return, especially for the northern counties. We will continue to monitor the model trends to see if they stay consistent.

MARINE

Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Quiet, pleasant marine conditions expected today and tomorrow. Conditions deteriorate by Thursday as a cold front bringing showers and storms moves over the waters. Winds and seas will also increase Thursday before diminishing Friday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values stay above critical levels. Showers and storms will bring much needed rainfall to the area on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 69 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 90 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 90 67 91 67 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 86 66 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 90 61 90 61 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 87 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.