textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions continue with near record high temperatures and heat index values of up to 110.

- Severe storms continue this evening across the nature coast.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 753 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Significant severe weather event across west central and southwest Florida this evening...and threat continues across the nature coast for the next couple of hours.

Decreasing cloudiness after midnight. Rain across much of the area briefly lowered temperatures below morning lows in many areas. Boundary layer flow will shift a bit to the south on Saturday, becoming onshore during the afternoon. This will likely shift highest pops to the interior Saturday afternoon. Increasing SAL could inhibit areal convection to some degree...and create favorable conditions for high temperatures to climb into the mid 90s inland.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The Saharan Air Layer still lingers, though seems to have thinned out compared to yesterday. Even with the SAL still present, afternoon thunderstorms are still expected to develop especially for coastal areas, south of I4. Warm temperatures, plenty of surface moisture, and moderate instability could lead to isolated strong or severe storms. Main concern will be strong, damaging winds. Otherwise, the main story continues to be the heat . High temperatures are expected to be near record for many places once again and wide spread heat indices over 100 with some reaching around 108 or higher.

As typical moisture returns to the area this weekend, temperatures will moderate slightly, though still reach the low to mid 90s each day. Current forecast shows the Saharan dust returning over South Florida by Sunday then lingering through the first half of the week. However, rain chances will increase for the northern half of the forecast area where moisture will be increasing a frontal boundary approaches.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 753 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Thunderstorm activity currently lifting north of airports across west central Florida, and areas of light rain will end in the next hour or two with skies becoming partly cloudy later tonight with VFR conditions expected at all terminals. SCT040-050 will develop at all terminals on Saturday...with FEW clouds at terminals closer to the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Marine conditions will continue to be quiet through the weekend as winds stay below 10 kts. Only concern will be showers and storms that move over the water creating locally higher winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of low level moisture remains in the area. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected this afternoon into the evening, mainly south of I4.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 93 81 94 / 40 40 20 20 FMY 77 94 78 97 / 30 50 10 20 GIF 76 96 76 96 / 30 50 40 40 SRQ 77 93 79 94 / 40 40 10 10 BKV 74 96 75 95 / 40 40 20 30 SPG 80 93 81 94 / 40 40 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.