textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler weather expected through the weekend. - Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters starting early Monday and continuing into most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 A large trough remains over the eastern U.S. this afternoon while surface high pressure builds across the southeast and Florida behind a frontal boundary. For the rest of the afternoon, skies will clear as drier air moves in and temperatures will top out in the 70s. As has been advertised, the next two mornings will be the coldest so far this season as the colder air mass settles across the region. Still looking at maybe upper 30s or around 40 for colder spots, with mid/upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere for both days, though Sunday is still forecast to be the colder of the two mornings by a few degrees. Tomorrow afternoon will be very pleasant with plenty of sun and highs in the 60s, then we warm up some Sunday afternoon as the air mass starts to moderate.

For early next week, some shortwave energy will pass over the region and try to develop a surface disturbance across the northern Gulf coast. This will bring increased moisture across the state for much of the week with a slight increase in rain chances and more moderate temperatures and humidity.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 212 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 212 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 North/northwest winds will increase to exercise caution levels today and tonight then shift to northeast around 15 knots late Saturday into Sunday afternoon. Winds and seas will then increase once again starting Sunday night, staying around advisory levels through most of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 Drier air will remain over the area through the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the mid 30s away from the coast on Saturday, then moisture will rebound starting on Sunday and continuing into next week with no other fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 51 65 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 55 69 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 48 66 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 54 67 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 45 65 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 56 65 55 73 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.