textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 315 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Generally isolated to scattered shower and storm coverage through the week mainly interior and south.

- Flow shift late week through weekend may favor highest shower and storm chances shifting to coastal W FL by early next week.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 105+ degrees continue areawide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Westerly flow aloft continues over the state this morning north of a ridge axis across the S Gulf into the W Atlantic, with light surface flow with a surface ridge axis draped across the peninsula. Flow setup will favor a isolated sea breeze showers and storms developing this afternoon along the W FL sea breeze as it pushes inland, increasing to scattered coverage late afternoon into evening as the W and E FL sea breezes converge over the interior. Highest chances look to remain generally along and south of I-4, particularly over S interior and inland SWFL locations. Summertime heat and humidity will translate to highs in the upper 80s coastal to mid/spotty upper 90s interior along with heat indices reaching 105+ degrees.

General pattern persists through mid week, with shower and storm coverage mainly of the isolated to scattered variety as PWATs over the area remain in the 1.5-2 inch range. Flow remains generally light onshore/westerly, increasing in the afternoons with the sea breeze, particularly near the coast, continuing to focus highest shower and storm chances over areas away from the immediate coast. Surface ridge slowly shifts north across the peninsula over the latter half of the week and into the weekend, with scattered to numerous showers and storms favoring the interior on Thursday as flow shifts more SW/S, followed by isolated to scattered showers and storms gradually trending toward greatest coverage across W FL including coastal areas over the weekend into early next week as easterly flow sets up locally south of the ridge axis. Highs from the upper 80s/lower 90s coastal to generally mid 90s inland through the week, with lows continuing from the mid 70s inland to lower 80s coastal, and daily maximum heat indices approaching 105+ degrees.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR with light winds through morning then onshore winds around 10 knots afternoon into evening. Convection remains east/inland of northern terminals with no mention, although LAL may be updated in later cycles if convection initiates closer. SWFL terminals likely within range of late afternoon and evening convection with PROB30 group continuing from previous cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Generally pleasant boating conditions through the week with ridging over the waters. Mostly rain free conditions, except slight AM shower/storm chances over the northern waters mid to late week, followed by PM coastal shower/storm chances as flow shifts back easterly into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

High pressure to remain in control through the week with warm and humid conditions expected and minimal fire concerns aside from a few areas of higher dispersions this afternoon across the Nature Coast. Generally isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms expected, favoring areas away from the immediate coast through the work week before shifting toward coastal areas over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 95 81 95 81 / 10 0 10 0 FMY 96 79 95 79 / 30 20 30 10 GIF 97 76 97 76 / 30 10 20 0 SRQ 94 80 94 79 / 10 0 10 0 BKV 96 76 95 77 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 94 81 94 81 / 10 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.