textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before a cold front brings in milder temperatures Sunday.

- A few showers will be possible over the Nature Coast Thursday and Friday, then much better rain chances across the entire region late Saturday through Sunday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A west to southwest flow will continue into the weekend as a cold front drifts into the southeast states suppressing the ridge axis south of the region. Some additional moisture near the boundary will drift south into the Nature Coast Thursday leading to a few showers over the northern waters east across areas north of Tampa Bay, but nothing real heavy anticipated, mainly just some light showers. It will remain warm with daytime highs in the lower 80s along the coast to lower 90s interior and with dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s the lows tonight will remain in this range which is several degrees above normal. Current forecast looks good with no changes planned.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Some scattered low clouds around 010-015 will be possible around TPA, PIE, SRQ, and LAL tonight, and can't rule out some brief BKN MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with westerly winds diminishing to around 5 knots or less later this evening and overnight, then increasing once again to around 10 knots with some higher gusts by midday Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 High pressure aloft is centered over Mexico this afternoon with Florida on its northeastern periphery. At the surface, high pressure remains over the region through today, with dry and warm conditions continuing. For tomorrow into Friday, some shortwave energy will move across northern Florida, with a frontal boundary moving into the area and then stalling. This will allow for some showers and storms across the Nature Coast both days, with rain-free conditions continuing elsewhere.

For this weekend, a series of stronger shortwaves will push the frontal boundary through the forecast area, and this will bring our best chance for rain in quite some time. As of now, timing looks like late Saturday afternoon through Sunday with the more widespread rain expected Sunday. Looks like there might be some heavy rainfall as well as some guidance is suggesting, but we will have to see how things play out over the next few days. Some showers will likely linger Monday morning over southwest Florida, then we clear out for mid-week. Temperatures will drop slightly below normal for Sunday with the rain, then top out near normal for Monday before rising once again for the rest of the week.

MARINE

Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 High pressure will remain over the waters through today, then shift southward through the end of the week as a frontal boundary approaches northern Florida. This will lead to a few showers over the northern waters Thursday and Friday, then the front moves through for the weekend, bringing higher rain chances Saturday afternoon through Sunday. No headlines are expected until Saturday afternoon, when winds increase to near-advisory levels, then conditions improve starting Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Relative humidity values will drop into the mid to upper 30s each of the next few afternoons, but no Red Flag conditions are expected as winds will remain below criteria. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 72 87 73 87 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 70 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 68 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 71 85 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 64 88 65 89 / 0 10 0 10 SPG 76 86 76 87 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.