textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 235 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours through Wednesday, then at almost anytime Thursday through at least next Tuesday.

- An increasingly wet pattern is expected late in the week through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Broad upper-level ridging remains in place over and to the east of the Florida peninsula. The surface ridge axis also remains to the east in response, with a fairly tight pressure gradient over the state driving a surface ESE flow. Some drier air is wrapping around the back side of the high and advecting over the area in the mid- levels. However, daytime low-level sea breeze convergence is slowly adding additional moisture to the column, and this will continue over the next few hours. Thus, shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated once again this afternoon/evening, primarily along and west of the I-75 corridor. With the drier air, this favors a higher threat for strong gusty winds in storms that do form. Hail is also not out of the question if more robust updrafts form. Lightning and heavy rainfall should be expected with any storm that forms.

This is the final day of this pattern before we begin to see a transition take place. As the ridge axis shifts farther east and eventually is suppressed by an amplified upper-level pattern, the flow will shift to a more southerly and then WSW flow by the end of the week. As this takes place, deep tropical moisture will advect over the state, leading to greater coverage in showers and thunderstorms. Notably it also means that thunderstorms won't just be possible in the afternoon/evening hours, but also overnight and in the morning hours as well. There could, in fact, be multiple rounds of rain each day. Overall, this is a good thing given the current drought conditions across the region.

This pattern will continue into next week, meaning that warm, humid weather will continue with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. With extra cloud cover, it won't likely get quite as hot during the day - but it also won't cool a whole lot at night either. So expect a wet and pattern into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Some showers have begun to develop, and this is expected to continue with storms consolidating along the west coast over the next several hours. The best potential for impacts exists around Tampa Bay area terminals. As these storms consolidate near the coast this evening, there will be a higher potential for microbursts, in addition to temporary MVFR and IFR flight conditions. Some storms may linger late tonight near some coastal terminals as well. Thunderstorms will again be possible late tomorrow afternoon and into the evening, but will become increasingly possible at nearly anytime as deep tropical moisture moves over the state beginning on Thursday and lasting into next week.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

One final day of ESE flow is expected tomorrow, with showers and thunderstorms moving off the coast late in the day and into the night. With breezy conditions continuing, this will also keep seas in the 2 to 3 foot range, outside of thunderstorms where winds and seas will be higher. Beginning Thursday and into Friday, the winds will gradually veer to a WSW flow. This will bring additional moisture and higher chances for showers and thunderstorms to coastal waters at nearly any time, and will keep seas of 2 to 3 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Ample moisture remains across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Rain becomes even more widespread as the weekend approaches, gradually alleviating drought concerns. While there could be some high dispersions over the next couple days with breezy conditions, overall fire weather concerns are low through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 89 77 87 / 60 30 50 70 FMY 76 93 76 90 / 20 50 40 70 GIF 75 92 75 89 / 60 70 60 80 SRQ 74 91 75 88 / 50 30 50 60 BKV 72 92 72 89 / 60 30 50 70 SPG 77 91 77 89 / 50 30 50 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.