textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Thunderstorm hazards through Monday.
- Hazardous marine conditions Monday into mid week.
- Increased fire danger Tuesday into mid week.
UPDATE
Issued at 820 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026
It has been a rather quiet afternoon and evening with very little shower and storm activity. The dry air that is very apparent on the water vapor imagery as well as the 12Z and 00Z sounding showing PWAT values below 1 inch was likely one of the main factors in limiting showers and storms today. The latest HRRR guidance keeps mostly rain- free conditions across the area overnight. Models are showing a moderate increase in moisture on Sunday with PWAT values back up to around 1.3 - 1.7 inches. This increasing moisture will lead to scattered showers and storms during the day. SPC continues to keep all of west central and southwest Florida in a Marginal Risk for Severe storms on Sunday. Some of these storms could produce damaging winds, hail and localized heavy rainfall. Made some slight tweaks to POPs for the next few hours, otherwise no significant changes needed to current forecast.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 820 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026
VFR conditions with light and variable winds expected overnight. Increasing SSE through SSW winds around 5-10 knots expected mid morning through early afternoon, then further increasing 10-15 knots after 17Z. Rain and storm chances increase during the afternoon and evening hours, so will cover this with PROB30 -TSRA and some MVFR CIGs and VSBY restrictions after 20Z.
MARINE
Issued at 820 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Weak high pressure in the region will keep seas 2 feet or less with winds around 10 knots through the weekend. A cold front moves through the waters with southerly winds and seas increasing Monday along with showers and thunderstorms. Strong high pressure building into the region will increase north-northwest winds and seas on Monday and Tuesday with a Small Craft Advisory likely needed. Winds veer northeast, but a tight pressure gradient will keep elevated conditions over portions of the waters through the week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 84 72 82 / 10 60 40 80 FMY 68 86 70 86 / 20 60 30 60 GIF 67 86 68 84 / 20 80 40 80 SRQ 65 84 70 83 / 10 60 30 80 BKV 61 86 65 82 / 10 70 40 80 SPG 71 84 74 82 / 10 60 30 80
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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