textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue into mid week.

- Breezy areawide with a slight chance of showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026 Period begins with a split flow U/L pattern entering the west coast of the U.S. with a mean overall U/L trough across the western U.S. and weak downstream ridging over the Gulf and southeast U.S. An U/L low persists over the Bahamas, which will lift slowly north over the next couple of days before finally being absorbed into the main U/L flow over the western Atlantic late in the week. Concurrently, a strong northern stream disturbance will dig over the Pacific northwest causing the west coast trough to amplify...which will induce stronger downstream ridging over the Gulf and Florida in the wake of the exiting U/L low. The building heights over the forecast area combined with the increased large scale subsidence will allow temperatures across west central and southwest Florida to climb several degrees above climatic normals Thursday through Saturday.

A southern stream disturbance will exit the base of the west coast trough late in the week and will push across the Mississippi River valley Saturday/Saturday night, moving across the eastern seaboard and Florida late in the weekend. This will decrease heights with daytime temperatures dropping back a few degrees due to increasing cloudiness and a chance of showers, but will still run above climatic normals.

At the surface, a remnant frontal boundary currently persists across the Bahamas and portions of the Florida straits with strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard. The tight pressure gradient between these two systems continues to produce gusty northeast winds across west central and southwest Florida along with the adjacent coastal waters. Have introduced low end pops over the interior and southwest Florida this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon as scattered showers are likely to redevelop each day in the convergent northeast flow off the Atlantic advecting scattered showers onshore the east central/southeast Florida coast which will push inland. Most will likely dissipate before completely reaching the west coast, with the exception of possibly southwest Florida. Any precipitation will be light.

As the U/L low currently over the Bahamas moves away from the region late in the week, the gradient will relax a bit with winds over land subsiding, but will still remain elevated over the coastal waters. Over the weekend, the surface high will begin to exit the area as the U/L trough moves over the state and weak associated frontal boundary moves across the forecast area with a chance of showers. Surface high pressure will build back over the region early next week with skies in the wake of this system with skies becoming partly cloudy and temperatures continuing to run a few degrees above climatic normals.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026 VFR conditions expected the remainder of the night under mostly clear skies. FEW-SCT 010-020 could develop around sunrise which may briefly advect over terminals, before lifting by mid/late morning. Slight chance of a light afternoon shower vcnty all terminals, however conditions are expected to remain VFR with SCT LCL BKN 040-050 with VSBYs 6+ miles associated with the very light showers.

MARINE

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026 Advisory level winds expected to persist across the waters through Wednesday evening, and possibly through Wednesday night. Winds will begin to weaken a bit Thursday, but are expected to remain elevated through the end of the week. The gradient will weaken further over the weekend and into next week dropping below cautionary levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 84 70 84 72 / 0 0 20 10 FMY 86 73 87 73 / 30 20 40 30 GIF 85 71 85 72 / 30 20 60 30 SRQ 85 71 85 72 / 0 0 30 10 BKV 85 67 85 70 / 0 0 20 10 SPG 83 71 83 73 / 0 0 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.