textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this weekend, mainly away from the coast.

- Warming trend through the weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 722 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Recent radar imagery shows scattered showers and a few storms across interior areas moving to the ESE as the sea breezes collide and weak shortwave energy swings through aloft. This activity will generally taper off by late evening with the loss of diurnal heating and as shortwave energy shifts out into the Atlantic. Other than some minor tweaks to PoPs to match latest radar trends, the ongoing forecast is in good shape with no other updates planned at this time.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)

Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A warm and sunny afternoon across the Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, troughiness remains across region and this will pull pockets of slightly higher moisture over the area, which combined with the sea breeze could support some showers late this afternoon and evening. If they develop, most of the activity will be along and east of the I-75 corridor. Afternoon highs today will max out at the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low to mid 60s. Onshore winds behind the sea breeze will become light and variable before increasing out of the southeast by mid morning on Saturday.

A carbon copy of today is anticipated on Saturday, except a few degrees warmer. The aforementioned trough moves out of the area but moisture lingers supporting another round of showers over the interior and east.

LONG TERM (SUN-THU)

Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

By early next week, another U/L trough will begin to approach the region bringing additional rain chances but not for everyone. Model guidance keeps most the action north of I-4. Drier air moves in behind this system along with warmer temperatures as high pressure builds. Highs could climb up to low to mid 90s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with light/VRB winds overnight and shifting to the west into Saturday as the sea breeze develops. Isolated SHRA may develop later in the day on Saturday mostly in interior areas but any precip activity should be light with no aviation impacts expected at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Benign weather conditions will continue over the Gulf waters. Winds will remain out of the south and southeast around 5 to 10 knots through the weekend. A front will push through on Monday allowing winds to become northeast and east for the first half of next week with speeds remaining around 5 to 10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Area of low pressure will keep RHs well above critical levels each afternoon through the weekend. A small increase in upper level moisture will bring some isolated showers to our interior areas during this time. Light and variable winds overnight become southeasterly during the morning before shifting onshore through the weekend. By early next week, another system will shift winds from the north with much drier conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 67 87 70 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 85 66 88 68 / 10 10 10 0 GIF 86 64 90 66 / 10 10 20 10 SRQ 84 65 85 68 / 0 0 10 0 BKV 86 58 89 60 / 0 0 10 10 SPG 85 72 86 73 / 0 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.