textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 225 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop today and Tuesday, mainly over the interior during the afternoon and early evening hours.

- Widespread showers and storms will move south through the area Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the strongest storms capable of producing damaging winds gusts and frequent lightning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

For today and Tuesday, a weak surface ridge is holding across southern Florida, setting up light westerly flow. This pattern will continue to bring a few showers or storms shifting onshore from the Gulf during the late night and morning hours, then scattered to numerous storm coverage building into the interior during the afternoon and shifting west through the evening. Afternoon temperatures will remain near normal, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, and morning lows a few degrees above normal in the mid 70s to around 80.

Tuesday night and Wednesday, a potent mid level trough ejecting from the Mid-Atlantic Coast into the western Atlantic will drag a surface cold front into the Florida Peninsula, bringing about a change in the weather pattern. Deep moisture to the south of this front will translate to numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a few strong or severe storms possible of creating damaging wind gusts. Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front, mainly over the northern half of the forecast area, resulting in highs in the low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. The front will stall out south of Interstate 4 late in the week, allowing elevated rain chances to continue on Thursday over southwest Florida. Drier air will continue to work in Friday through the weekend, limiting rain chances over the northern half of the area, but allowing for continued scattered thunderstorms across southwest Florida.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will hold through the morning, although there is a low chance of a few showers moving onshore and into the vicinity of area terminals at times this morning. Higher rain chances are expected this afternoon, mainly over the interior around KLAL, but TAF sites closer to the coast may also see occasional showers and storms during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

High pressure south of the waters will keep west and northwest flow in place today and Tuesday, supporting isolated showers and storms moving onshore, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. Tuesday night and Wednesday, a front will push south into the waters, bringing higher rain chances and allowing winds to turn to northerly and then easterly by late Wednesday. Wind speeds will also increase to around advisory levels Wednesday afternoon and evening, but will then subside through the day on Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Westerly flow continues today and Tuesday, with a few showers shifting into the Florida Peninsula from the Gulf in the morning, then scattered to numerous showers and storms developing over the interior during the afternoon and early evening. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 80 89 76 / 20 10 20 70 FMY 92 79 92 76 / 10 10 20 40 GIF 91 77 91 74 / 30 10 50 60 SRQ 90 80 90 76 / 10 10 20 60 BKV 90 77 91 71 / 30 20 30 70 SPG 91 80 91 77 / 10 10 20 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.