textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the morning hours, especially this weekend.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 High pressure remains centered aloft over the southeastern U.S. this afternoon while the surface ridge axis stretches north of the state. This pattern will hold through tomorrow, with a light easterly flow giving way to the sea breeze in the afternoon. Similar to today, some relatively drier air will linger over the northern forecast area tomorrow, keeping higher rain chances from I-4 southward. Activity will slowly drift back westward in the evening and eventually move offshore after dark.

For the weekend, flow becomes more south to southwest, shifting the highest rain chances inland each afternoon and evening after scattered morning Gulf and coastal activity. Flow remains light through next week as well, with sea breeze and boundary interactions driving most storm activity each day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms through the rest of the evening and TEMPO groups are included to indicate the best chances for each site, though confidence is lower for Tampa Bay area terminals, as mentioned this morning. For tomorrow, a similar pattern is expected, though model guidance is showing an earlier start compared with today.

MARINE

Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the next several days, with no headlines expected. The only concern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms that could produce locally gusty winds and rough seas. Best chances are tonight and Friday morning and during the morning hours for the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Abundant moisture will keep relative humidity values above critical levels with sustained 20 foot winds less than 15 mph. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, which will cause gusty and erratic winds, otherwise there are no other significant fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 92 80 91 / 20 50 40 70 FMY 77 92 78 92 / 40 50 30 70 GIF 75 94 76 93 / 20 60 30 90 SRQ 77 92 78 91 / 40 50 50 60 BKV 72 95 74 93 / 10 40 40 70 SPG 79 92 80 91 / 30 40 50 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.