textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 332 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the next week.

- Rain coverage will be limited today and Wednesday, then chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms increase Thursday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

In the mid levels today and tonight, a broad trough is holding across the eastern US, while a weak disturbance lifts northeast across the northern Gulf Coast and northern Florida. At the surface, the sub-tropical ridge axis is holding across southern Florida, keeping southwest flow in place today. While this flow pattern is lifting a pocket of drier air into the southern half of the forecast area today, the aforementioned disturbance is generating higher precipitable water values on the northern side. As a result, areas from around Interstate 4 northwards will see isolated to scattered showers and storms developing and streaming onshore today and into tonight, while areas to the south will likely see little to know convection today. As the disturbance lifts away on Wednesday, rain chances will be very limited across the entire forecast area.

Moisture will gradually return Thursday and Friday under continued southwest and south flow, allowing for isolated to scattered showers and and storms to develop each afternoon, with the highest rain chances generally over the interior. Moisture will increase this weekend as a weak front stalls out north of the area, resulting in more numerous afternoon storm coverage. By Monday, westerly flow will be back in place, fueling a few showers or storms that will shift onshore during the morning, then isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to build into the interior through the afternoon and early evening hours.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours. The possible exception will come from isolated showers and a few storms shifting onshore during the afternoon and early evening hours, mainly around KTPA, KPIE, KSRQ, and KLAL.

MARINE

Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

High pressure centered over the Atlantic will ridge west across southern Florida and into the southeastern Gulf through the rest of the week, keeping southwest and south flow in place. Deep moisture streaming across the northeastern Gulf today and tonight will allow for scattered showers and storms to develop, mainly north of the Tampa Bay. Rain chances will then be fairly limited for the rest of the week as drier air fills in, although occasional showers or storms could still develop each day. Wind speeds are expected to remain below headline criteria outside of thunderstorm activity.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Southwest and south flow today and Wednesday will keep deep moisture in place, with no humidity concerns. Rain chances will be limited, especially for areas in southwest Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 81 92 82 / 20 20 10 0 FMY 92 78 94 80 / 10 10 10 0 GIF 95 76 96 78 / 30 10 20 10 SRQ 91 80 92 81 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 93 77 94 78 / 30 20 10 0 SPG 91 81 92 82 / 20 20 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.