textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters over the weekend and continuing into next week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms end from north to south this evening.

- A cooler drier airmass with below average temperatures will arrive by Sunday and continue through most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Mid/upper-level troughing continues over the southeastern U.S. this afternoon as an associated cold front makes its way across the Florida peninsula. Plenty of moisture and lift from these features has led to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the local area and these will continue to slowly shift southward through the rest of the day with the front. Strong high pressure will build in over the eastern part of the country behind this boundary, with a drier and relatively cooler air mass starting to fill in over Florida on breezy northeast winds.

The frontal boundary will eventually stall over south Florida, keeping a tight pressure gradient and therefore gusty winds in place through the next several days. The rest of the week will then feature low rain chances and temperatures running several degrees below normal along with lower humidity.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 A few showers/storms along with some lower cigs are still expected for much of the rest of the day, but then VFR is expected through the rest of the forecast period as rain chances come to an end. Breezy northeast winds will persist, however, with gusts to 25 knots or so expected.

MARINE

Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Marine conditions will become more hazardous through the day as a cold front moves through the peninsula, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms across the waters. Winds and seas will start to increase as this front moves through and a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all waters for this afternoon through at least Monday night but more than likely for much of the upcoming week as northeast winds increase to around 20-30 knots with some gusts to gale force. There may be periods this upcoming week with winds less than advisory criteria, but overall wind speeds look to remain elevated into next weekend.|

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to shift southward for the rest of this afternoon and evening before rain clears for tonight and the next several days. Drier and relatively cooler air will move over the region behind this boundary, though relative humidity values will still remain above critical levels. The only fire weather concern will be breezy northeast winds greater than 15 mph for the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 63 79 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 68 82 69 84 / 40 0 0 0 GIF 64 80 66 82 / 10 10 20 10 SRQ 65 81 67 82 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 59 78 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 65 79 67 81 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.