textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue.

- Onshore flow will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf moving onshore this morning and then shifting inland during the afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move east northeast across the Tampa Bay area and Nature Coast this morning where the deeper moisture, precipitable water around 2 inches, resides. Further south an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out later this morning and early afternoon. The majority of the convection will shift inland and into the eastern half of the Florida peninsula later this afternoon. Made some minor tweaks to rain chances for the rest of today, otherwise forecast looks on track.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect TPA, PIE, SRQ, and LAL through mid-afternoon causing MVFR/local IFR conditions at times. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Southwest to west winds will increase to around 10 knots by this afternoon, then diminish to less than 5 knots later this evening and overnight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Early morning showers and storms over the eastern Gulf will continue to develop and move over the coast before moving further inland through the day. Mid level dry air over SWFL will limit rain chances further south, though an isolated shower or storm can not be ruled out. More mid level dry air moves over the area Monday limiting rain chances further. However by mid week a series of mid level short waves will move over the eastern U.S. adding more moisture through the end of the week, which will help increase rain chances. Typical thunderstorm hazards like frequent lightning, strong gusty winds and heavy downpours could be possible in any storm that develops.

Outside of showers and storms conditions will continue to be hot and humid, though below heat advisory levels. High temperatures through the week will be in the low to mid 90s with triple digit heat indices possible each day.

MARINE

Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Showers and storms over the Gulf this morning will continue to drift onshore and inland this afternoon. Pleasant marine conditions expected away from any shower or storm activity.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of low level moisture remains in the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 78 91 78 / 50 10 20 10 FMY 94 78 94 78 / 20 10 30 10 GIF 93 74 95 75 / 40 10 20 10 SRQ 90 77 92 77 / 20 10 10 10 BKV 90 72 93 72 / 60 10 30 10 SPG 88 79 90 79 / 50 10 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.