textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 832 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week, but perhaps with slightly lower coverage. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns with storms that do form.

- An unsettled pattern arrives mid-week, with hazardous marine conditions developing across coastal waters and the potential for numerous to widespread thunderstorms areawide.

UPDATE

Issued at 832 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The 12Z morning upper air sounding is showing a very moist environment over the area with a PWAT of 2.38 inches. It is also showing a very light wind flow with less than 10 knots of wind through the column. We are already seeing some sporadic showers and storms over the eastern Gulf waters this morning. With this very moist environment and light wind flow, we can expect slow moving showers and storms through the day. Latest HRRR guidance has coastal showers and storms along the west coast just south of Tampa Bay by late morning and then filling in over the inland areas by afternoon, with the highest rain and storm chances over SW Florida. Some localized flooding may be possible in these slow moving storms. Current forecast is tracking well with no big adjustments needed at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 832 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions and light and variable winds expected during the early morning, then slightly increasing WSW around 5-8 knots by 14Z. Radar is already showing some showers over the eastern Gulf waters and guidance shows the potential for some coastal showers by mid- late morning, so will cover this with VCSH after 14Z for all terminals except LAL, where activity will start later around 18Z. TSRA will be possible after 18Z, so will keep VCTS and TEMPO groups in the forecast through most of the afternoon for all sites. Gusty winds, lower CIGs and VSBY reductions possible in thunderstorms and showers.

MARINE

Issued at 832 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Daily showers and storms will be possible each day through the forecast period. Outside of storms, winds will remain light today and Monday with speeds around 5 knots and seas less than 2 feet. By Tuesday, an upper level low will start to approach the area. This will shift our winds to the northeast around 10 to 15 knots. These winds will continue to increase quickly as the low approaches, reaching up to 20 to 25 knots by Wednesday afternoon. These higher winds will stick around through Thursday out of the east and northeast. Seas will also build to around 4-7 feet mid-week. Decreasing winds and abating seas expected by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Ridging is now sitting right overhead the state. This will keep our upper level flow very light. This regime results in slow moving storms where outflows are the main focus for redevelopment. This regime also brings higher chances for localize flooding as storms tend to "sit" over an area.

As we head into Tuesday an upper level low will start to approach the state as high pressure moves away. This will bring our winds easterly again. This will result in shower activity closer to the coast in the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Wednesday this upper level low will be be getting closer to the state. Out ahead of it we will see some drier air especially north of I-4 where PW could drop below 1.5. Winds will also increase as sustained winds could reach around 15 knots and gusts close to 30. Moisture will start to return on Thursday as the upper level low stalls just off the east coast. Winds will calm down slightly to around 10 knots with gust around 20 knots. Shower chances north of I- 4 will start to return.

The upper level low looks to remain just off the east coast through next Saturday. This will switch our wind flow to almost a completely northerly direction. These northerly winds will help to bring temperatures down slightly in the morning with most of us in the low to mid 70's compared to the mid to upper 70's we have seen all summer. Upper level moisture will remain high so scattered showers and storms will still be possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 78 91 78 / 50 10 50 30 FMY 92 77 92 77 / 60 20 60 30 GIF 93 75 93 75 / 60 20 30 40 SRQ 91 77 92 76 / 50 20 50 40 BKV 91 74 93 73 / 40 10 30 20 SPG 90 79 91 79 / 50 20 50 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.