textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through early next week.

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop each day through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 High pressure surface and aloft will persist over the region, with the ridge axis lifting north of the forecast area. This will create east to southeast boundary layer flow across west central and southwest Florida which will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties. A few showers/storms will develop during the early afternoon hours around the Tampa Bay area as the bay breeze interacts with the sea breeze boundary. Simultaneously, the east coast sea breeze boundary will push across the peninsula with scattered showers and storms over the interior. Areal coverage of storms will increase over the coastal counties late in the day as the east coast sea breeze boundary collides with the west coast sea breeze boundary. A few storms may be strong with wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH...and can't rule out an isolated pulse severe storm.

Similar set-up each day through Tuesday. By midweek, some drier air aloft will advect over the northern forecast area, and possibly into the central forecast area which will decrease pops. However, easterly boundary layer flow will continue holding the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties, with showers/storms being enhanced along the boundary during the mid/late afternoon hours. The drier air aloft may sink further south late in the week which may decrease pops across all of west central and southwest Florida. NBM POPs appear to be a category or two too high in the extended portion of the forecast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the night with high cloudiness gradually dissipating. Partly cloudy in the morning with SCT 030-040 SCT250. Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon with numerous to widespread showers/storms developing with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs which may impact each terminal for a few hours primarily late in the day.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the forecast period with generally light winds and seas. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 77 90 77 / 60 30 70 40 FMY 94 76 92 76 / 70 30 80 40 GIF 94 76 92 76 / 40 30 80 20 SRQ 93 76 92 76 / 50 40 80 40 BKV 93 72 92 73 / 70 30 80 40 SPG 92 78 90 78 / 50 30 70 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.