textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures through Thursday, turning colder Friday through the weekend. - A few showers expected here and there through Thursday night, but overall rainfall amounts will be low.

UPDATE

Issued at 702 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Early evening radar imagery is showing scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm moving into southwest Florida from the Gulf associated with a weak trough, while lighter rain and sprinkles are moving into the Nature Coast. REFS ensemble guidance is showing that the convection over southwest Florida may continue to linger and shift onshore through after midnight and into the overnight hours before dissipating, but less favorable moisture over the Nature Coast should mean that any light rain reaching the ground should come to an end in the next few hours. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track with cloudy conditions holding overnight and into Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front.

Mentions of sprinkles were added to parts of the Nature Coast for the next few hours to keep up with radar trends. No other changes planned for the evening update.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

A few showers are moving east into southwest Florida from the Gulf early this evening, and could cause brief periods of lowered ceilings or visibilities through around midnight. Otherwise mainly VFR conditions should hold through the rest of the overnight and morning hours. Isolated showers cannot be completely ruled out Thursday afternoon, mainly over southwest Florida, but rain chances are still too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Rain chances will increase around KTPA after 00z Thursday evening as a line of showers moves southeast off the Gulf.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Light winds and rather benign conditions will persist through Thursday. A cold front will move across the waters Thursday night and early Friday followed by increasing north to northwest winds up to cautionary levels Friday and Friday night. Winds will shift to northeast and diminish some for Saturday and Sunday. Then an increasing easterly flow will setup Sunday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds south over the eastern U.S. and a potential area of low pressure moves across the gulf with advisory level winds possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

No fire weather hazards are expected through Thursday as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. Drier air will overspread the region Friday and continue through the weekend. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the upper 30s north and low to mid 40s central on Friday, then mid to upper 30s across much of west central and southwest Florida away from the coast on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 79 62 71 / 0 0 30 0 FMY 70 81 69 76 / 30 20 20 10 GIF 64 80 60 72 / 10 0 20 0 SRQ 70 80 65 73 / 10 10 30 0 BKV 61 80 56 70 / 10 0 20 0 SPG 70 78 65 71 / 0 0 40 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.