textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- While drier air aloft will limit thunderstorm chances and rain totals each day this week, the potential for strong wind gusts is higher. Have multiple ways to receive weather alerts.

- Temperatures will run slightly above normal, with afternoon max temperatures in the mid 90s over the interior and around the low 90s near the coast. There is a Moderate to Major HeatRisk in response.

UPDATE

Issued at 818 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The morning is off to a quiet start with high pressure in control and a slightly drier airmass in place today. Early sounding data suggests a PWAT of only around 1.5 to 1.6 inches today. This is below the 25th percentile and near the baseline for any convection to develop. As such, the expectation is for fairly sparse thunderstorm coverage across the region. The best chances are across SWFL late this afternoon and into the evening, along with a slightly lower potential near the coast around Tampa Bay where more complex boundary interactions could allow for a couple additional storms to form. With the drier air aloft, stronger wind gusts to around 50 mph will be possible with storms that do form.

For most people, however, today is likely to be warm and dry. This is consistent with the current forecast. Only slight tweaks to POPs were made for this afternoon and evening, mainly around Tampa Bay and across the Nature Coast, to better capture the potential for a few storms this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

In the upper levels, broad high pressure centered over northern Florida will hold in place today as a TUTT moves west through the Straits of Florida. Meanwhile at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is sitting just east of Florida, keeping southeast flow in place across the forecast area today. Broad subsidence from the ridging aloft will begin to dry out the atmospheric column today, resulting in lower rain coverage across the forecast area than has been observed over the last week or so, with some parts of central Florida likely to remain rain free today.

Tuesday through the rest of the work week, the surface ridge will shift west into the Florida Peninsula while the upper level ridge continues to hold over the area. This stacked ridging will continue to support dry air aloft, while also resulting in slightly warmer surface temperatures. The driest conditions are forecast on Tuesday, when the National Blend of Models is forecasting PoPs of around 10 percent or less across the area, then moisture only slightly increases from there with generally 10-40 percent rain chances each afternoon through the rest of the work week. Unfortunately, this looks to reverse the recent trend of beneficial rain easing drought conditions over the last week or so, with 5-day QPFs through the work week forecast to only be around a half inch or less. Moisture and rain chances will increase slightly on Saturday, before drier air is set to return by Sunday.

Apart from the lack of rain, the main concern through the next week will be slightly above normal temperatures, with afternoon maximums topping out each day in the mid 90s over the interior and in the low 90s closer to the coast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 818 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Thunderstorms continue to be the main impact for terminals. However, the overall potential for today (and the next few days) is lower as a drier and more stable airmass remains in control. Nevertheless, there is still about a 30% chance that most coastal terminals could see a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. The chances are too low for mention at KSRQ and KLAL, but there is still a 15% to 20% chance that these terminals could see a thunderstorm between 20Z to 24Z today. With drier air present, storms that do form will have a higher potential of producing microbursts. This will continue to be a hazard through the work week.

MARINE

Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

High pressure east of the Florida Peninsula this morning will shift west into the eastern Gulf through the rest of the week. Southeast and east flow today and Tuesday will turn onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze, then light and somewhat variable flow will fill in during the second half of the week. Locally higher winds and rough seas will be possible in isolated to scattered storms this afternoon, then drier air will limit rain chances through the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

High pressure centered east of Florida this morning will settle into the state today and Tuesday, bringing in drier conditions aloft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon, then storm coverage is forecast to be even more limited on Tuesday with rain chances of only around 20 percent or less. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 77 93 78 / 20 10 10 0 FMY 94 76 94 78 / 30 30 10 10 GIF 95 76 95 77 / 10 10 10 10 SRQ 93 76 94 77 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 10 0 SPG 92 78 93 79 / 30 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.