textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- High coverage of mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms through the weekend. There remains a small chance of heavy rainfall amounts leading to localized flooding.

- Seasonably hot and muggy conditions persist each day. Highs in the lower 90s will feel more like 100 to 105 due to the humidity. Residents and visitors should take hydration breaks and seek the shade or A/C if feeling unwell.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

The Florida Peninsula remains situated beneath mid-level high pressure extending along the southern tier of the U.S. and into the western Atlantic. Very weak energy perturbations were analyzed at H5; these are forecast to lift north over the state through tonight. Total moisture (PWAT) levels remain near to above seasonal norms. At the surface, an axis of high pressure sits north of Central Florida, allowing light southeasterly boundary- layer flow.

Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge should remain very close to the state before building over the Appalachians by early next week. This should keep background flow light or southeasterly through the weekend before turning ENE early next week. Moisture values are expected to hold near or just above normal as well.

Within this pattern, scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to develop each afternoon and evening, with a concentration closer to the Gulf Coast today before shifting slightly into the interior on Friday through the weekend. Light winds should allow the Gulf breeze to make some progress inland, focusing convection where it interacts with other mesoscale boundaries. There is a low threat for gusty winds up to 50 mph from the strongest storms, and a 5% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 3-4" which may cause flooding in areas that have already experienced heavy rain this week.

Seasonably hot and muggy conditions will continue before any showers and storms manage to develop. Expect highs in the low-mid 90s, and peak heat index readings from 100 to 105.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR will continue, absent SHRA/TSRA. TSRA is more likely to begin from RSW/FMY/PGD after 18-19z and spread north/west thereafter, approaching LAL/SRQ by 19-21z, then TPA/PIE after 21-22z. Gusty, variable winds and brief MVFR/IFR reductions are possible with +TSRA. Activity dissipates gradually from S-N after 00-01z Fri.

A similar story is forecast Fri. with SHRA/TSRA beginning after 18z, increasing in coverage 21z near/east of TPA.

MARINE

Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

(previous discussion) Weak high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with winds below cautionary levels each day. The main hazard will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, which may cause locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

(previous discussion) No fire weather hazards are expected as abundant moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 77 90 78 91 / 30 50 20 70 FMY 77 93 77 92 / 30 70 30 70 GIF 75 93 76 93 / 40 60 30 70 SRQ 76 91 77 92 / 30 40 20 70 BKV 73 92 74 93 / 20 60 30 70 SPG 78 90 78 90 / 30 50 20 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.