textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue through early next week.

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms will develop each day through the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

In the upper levels, a large ridge pattern centered over southwestern US will generally remain in place through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend, holding a broad trough in place over the eastern US to the north of Florida. This will keep the area in a fairly stagnant pattern through the second half of the week, with the sub-tropical surface ridge extending from the Atlantic across central Florida, then finally lifting north during the weekend. Under this pattern, low level flow will range from southeasterly to southwesterly through the next few days, pulling deep tropical moisture into the forecast area and resulting in scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing each day. Under the generally southerly flow, showers and storms could begin to develop over the eastern Gulf during the late night and early morning hours each day through Friday, before convection begins to build across land areas during the afternoon and early evening hours.

By Saturday, as the surface ridge lifts north, the surface flow pattern will become more easterly and hold through early next week. This flow will continue to bring in deep moisture to the area, resulting in scattered to widespread showers and storms each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain warm and humid, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s each day through the next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Mainly rain free and VFR conditions are expected to hold through the morning hours. Thunderstorms will develop across the area during the afternoon, with periods of reduced flight categories and gusty winds expected as storms pass over individual terminals. Thunderstorms are forecast to largely clear out by around 01-03z, with mainly VFR conditions holding overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Atlantic high pressure will continue ridging across the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf through the week before lifting north during the weekend. This will favor generally southerly flow continuing through Saturday, becoming more easterly by Sunday. Wind speeds will generally remain less than 15 knots, although daily thunderstorms could produce locally higher winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

No humidity concerns. East to southeast flow will turn onshore with the afternoon sea breeze, with scattered to widespread showers and storms developing each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 77 90 77 / 30 20 60 20 FMY 94 76 92 76 / 60 30 70 30 GIF 95 74 93 75 / 80 60 80 40 SRQ 92 75 91 76 / 30 30 50 30 BKV 92 72 91 72 / 30 20 60 20 SPG 91 77 89 78 / 30 30 50 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.