textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Late night/early morning patchy fog and low clouds will be possible the next few days.

- Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normal. - Afternoon and evening storm chances today for the nature coast and interior before area wide chances with a frontal boundary Monday night and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1207 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 A stationary boundary persists across north Florida with onshore boundary layer flow over west central and southwest Florida. West coast sea breeze will push inland this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing...with areal coverage increasing as the storms push east through afternoon/evening hours. Although considerable high cloudiness will hold over much of the forecast area today, temperatures across the interior will remain rather hot with highs in the lower/mid 90s. There is a marginal risk for severe storms today across the nature coast and interior, but the main threat should be just to the north and east of the forecast area.

An U/L disturbance will ride over the stationary boundary Monday night and Tuesday with the front beginning to sag south over the forecast area. Highest pops across the north in proximity to the front...and over the interior due to the onshore boundary layer flow.

Sufficient deep layer moisture may lag over the area on Wednesday for scattered storms to develop over the interior during the afternoon hours. Drier air will advect over the area Wednesday night and Thursday with predominately dry conditions through the end of the week and over the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with VFR CIGs 250 the remainder of the night...and SCT LCL BKN 040-050 developing Monday afternoon. Isold showers/storms Monday afternoon will produce LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs, with the best chance of storms vcnty LAL/PGD/RSW/FMY.

MARINE

Issued at 1207 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 Relatively weak gradient will persist over the waters through the period with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms which will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. Best chance of storms will be Monday night and Tuesday with the highest POPs over the northern and central waters, with a few strong storms possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1207 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient low level moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values above critical levels through mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 75 89 73 / 10 10 60 10 FMY 93 75 93 73 / 20 10 50 20 GIF 91 73 90 71 / 30 10 70 30 SRQ 89 74 90 71 / 10 0 30 10 BKV 90 69 91 65 / 10 10 60 10 SPG 90 77 91 74 / 10 10 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.