textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are forecast for at least the rest of the week, with afternoon heat index values of over 100 expected to be near Heat Advisory levels in some spots each day.

- Drier air moving into the area will limit rain chances today through Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 654 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Best rain chances today will be near Tampa Bay midday followed by higher storm chances for KLAL. Coverage is not expected to be all that high, but enough for a PROB30 group for just KLAL. Low rain chances continue for tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Weak mid-level ridging will hold over Florida through the rest of the week. At the surface, the ridge axis extending from the Atlantic across southern Florida today will gradually lift north through the rest of the week, resulting in mainly westerly flow today becoming more southeasterly and easterly by late this week and into the weekend. This ridging at the surface and aloft will result in warm temperatures, with heat index values approaching heat advisory criteria in a few places each afternoon through the rest of the week. While afternoon thunderstorms typically provide some relief from the heat, rain chances through the rest of the week will unfortunately be lower than normal as a Saharan air layer pushes west into the state, bringing in drier conditions aloft.

For today, a few showers could shift onshore and develop along the west coast in the morning, then isolated to scattered showers and storms will shift inland through the afternoon. The driest air is expected to be overhead on Thursday, with no mentions of rain in the forecast across the entire area. Moisture will start to return on Friday, with scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast for areas south of the Tampa Bay, but mainly rain free conditions expected to hold over the Nature Coast. Moisture will continue to return through the weekend before a weak cold front stalls out over northern Florida early next week, resulting in higher rain totals for Monday and Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

High pressure ridging from the Atlantic into the southern coastal waters today will setup light and generally westerly flow, with drier air keeping rain chances low through the rest of the week. The ridge will lift north late in the week, allowing winds to turn to southeasterly and then easterly, but wind speeds will generally remain less than headline criteria.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Slightly drier air will filter into the area through the rest of the week, limiting rain chances. However, critically low relative humidity is not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 81 95 82 / 20 10 10 0 FMY 96 78 97 78 / 20 20 10 10 GIF 96 77 97 77 / 30 20 10 0 SRQ 92 80 95 80 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 95 76 97 76 / 20 10 10 0 SPG 94 81 95 82 / 20 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.