textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record warm high temperatures are forecast each day through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms are expected each day beginning Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

In the upper levels, broad ridging will slowly shift east across the Gulf and the Florida Peninsula while a broad trough swings through the eastern US well to the north of Florida. At the surface, the sub- tropical ridge axis is currently extending from the open Atlantic across northern Florida, but will slide south through the rest of the week as a frontal boundary pushes south. This front will reach northern Florida by Thursday night. With the upper level trough so far displaced to the north, the front will not have enough momentum to advance any farther into the state, and will stall out across northern Florida Friday through early next week. By then, a deeper upper level trough will be digging into the southeastern US, finally giving the surface front enough momentum to clear south through the forecast area Monday and Tuesday.

For today and Thursday, the high pressure at the surface and aloft will lead to dry and warming temperatures, with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s away from the coast. As the front moves into northern Florida by Friday, moisture will increase somewhat to the south of the front, allowing for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day Friday through Sunday, with the highest moisture and resulting rain chances over the Nature Coast counties and the interior. Rain chances will increase a bit on Monday as the front starts to advance south through the area, but the southwest Florida Coast will still only see 10-20 percent chances. With the front stalling out for a few days before pushing into the area, temperatures will remain well above normal through Sunday, then will only drop a couple of degrees for Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

High pressure centered over the Atlantic is ridging across northern Florida into the northeastern Gulf this morning, but the ridge axis will slide south through Friday as a frontal boundary pushes into the northern Gulf and stalls out by the end of the week. As a result, south and southeast flow today will give way to an afternoon onshore sea breeze, then will become more southwesterly on Thursday and westerly by Friday. Winds could increase to around Small Craft Exercise Caution levels at times this weekend. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers will be possible Friday through the weekend, producing locally higher winds and seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Relative humidity percentages are forecast to drop to near or below 35 percent this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon, mainly over the interior. Wind speeds are forecast to stay below 15 MPH today, but will increase slightly on Thursday, flirting with Red Flag criteria. High dispersion indices will be possible on Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 73 89 76 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 91 71 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 93 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 88 71 87 73 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 94 66 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 89 73 88 76 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.