textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Generally isolated to scattered shower and storm coverage through the week mainly interior and south.

- Flow shift late week through weekend may favor highest shower and storm chances shifting to coastal W FL by early next week.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 105+ degrees continue areawide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Ridging remains just to our south for much of our work week keeping southwesterly flow in place. We are also seeing the drier air that filter into the area yesterday. Our morning sounding came in with PW around 1.4 which puts us at around the 25 percentile for this date. This combination will result in lower rainshower chances across the whole state. Whatever storms that do develop will be inland and along the east coast. This trend of lower PW and southwest flow will remain in place through Wednesday.

By Thursday we will start to see some increase in moisture thanks to a stalled out boundary in south Georgia. This will lead to higher PoPs however the southwesterly flow will remain resulting in most of the these showers inland and along the east coast. This front will lift north on Friday as an upper level ridge from the Atlantic will start to move towards the state. This will once again lower moisture and keeping shower chances on the lower end for the summer months for both Friday and Saturday.

As we go into our Sunday this ridge will become directly overhead. This will bring a neutral flow regime to our forecast. This will help to bring showers closer to the west coast of Florida. The immediate coastline will remain dry but areas slightly more inland will probably see the best chance of storms over the next 7 days on Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail. A few showers and storms are expected to develop this and move further east this afternoon into the evening. Greatest chance for impacts will be SWFL terminals before shifting inland.

MARINE

Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

We will see much of the same for the first half of our work week with westerly flow between 5 to 10 knots. By Thursday and Friday winds will turn more light and variable with speeds only around 5 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Summertime humidity and heat will continue however we are expecting dry conditions for the west coast of Florida for much of our work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 95 81 92 / 0 0 20 30 FMY 79 96 79 95 / 20 20 10 20 GIF 76 97 76 95 / 10 10 10 50 SRQ 79 94 80 93 / 0 10 10 10 BKV 75 95 77 94 / 0 0 30 40 SPG 81 94 81 92 / 0 0 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.