textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week.

- Rain chances increase on Sunday and early next week

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026 Sea breeze boundaries colliding ATTM over west central Florida creating a narrow band of scattered showers and thunderstorms from Levy county to western Polk county. A few storms may be strong with gusty winds and small hail. The storms will dissipate before midnight with high broken cloudiness the remainder of the night.

Increasing deep layer moisture on Sunday combined with southeast boundary layer flow will create a higher likelihood of showers and thunderstorms developing over the coastal counties of west central and southwest Florida as the west coast sea breeze is held closer to the coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Looking at the morning skew-t we can see we have a lot of drier air in the mid levels. This is going to be the big factor that prevents most shower activity from forming this afternoon and evening. However, a few showers could still develop mainly over the interior. As we get into Sunday our winds in the mid levels turn southerly which helps to increase moisture. That along with easterly flow will favor scattered showers and storm along the west coast of Florida mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

We will see much of the same conditions on Monday and Tuesday with easterly flow and enough moisture to bring scattered showers and storms mainly over the west coast. With this regime storms will form mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Wednesday winds will shift more northeasterly. This typically pushes the majority of shower activity in southwest Florida with West Central Florida seeing mainly just some isolated storms. By Friday flow turns more neutral favoring storms in the interior parts of the state.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026 An evening shower or thunderstorm is possible mainly at LAL with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. Otherwise, high broken CIGs 250 will occur at all terminals overnight. Skies will become partly cloudy around sunrise across the region...with SCT 040-050 BKN250 at all terminals on Sunday with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing vcnty all terminals Sunday afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs.

MARINE

Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Winds will be staying out of the southeast around 5 to 10 knots for the weekend. The main weather hazard will be on Sunday as we see a more favorable set up to see showers and storms develop near the west coast. These storms will be pushing into the Gulf by the late evening and early overnight hours. This set for storms will stick around mid week. Winds will start to increase out of the east starting on Monday with spreads around 10 to 15 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026 Moisture will be increasing throughout the weekend with scattered showers and storms on Sunday. The moist atmosphere with scattered showers will continue for much of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 92 74 92 / 10 50 30 30 FMY 74 94 74 94 / 10 70 20 70 GIF 73 92 71 92 / 40 40 10 20 SRQ 73 92 72 94 / 0 60 30 50 BKV 70 94 68 94 / 10 50 10 20 SPG 76 93 75 95 / 0 50 30 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.