textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms through the week.
- Near record high temperatures through the week.
- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue all terminals with easterly winds into the afternoon hours. Expected the afternoon seabreeze at the coast to produce mainly scattered SHRA with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs to keep Prob30s in all sites until 00Z then clearing this evening and tonight.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 High pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula through much of the forecast period. The ridge axis will be located north of the forecast area which will continue to create east to northeast flow off the Atlantic and across the Florida peninsula. Abundant low level moisture combined with daytime heating and an afternoon west coast sea breeze boundary will generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms each day through the remainder of the week...although day-to-day there will be some variation in pops across the region. In general, variable cloudiness will develop each afternoon due to daytime heating creating a CU field across the forecast area...with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy at night.
The area of high pressure will begin to move away from the region over the weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest early next week. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normals through the forecast period with rather warm humid conditions during the afternoon hours.
MARINE
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters with east to northeast winds below cautionary levels each day through the end of the week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region through the week which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels each day.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 67 86 67 / 20 10 10 0 FMY 88 65 87 66 / 30 0 10 0 GIF 86 65 85 65 / 20 0 20 0 SRQ 86 65 86 65 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 88 60 87 60 / 20 10 10 0 SPG 87 70 86 69 / 20 10 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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