textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 827 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon and interior, mainly over the interior.

- More widespread showers and storms will move south through the area tonight and Wednesday, with the strongest storms capable of producing damaging winds gusts and frequent lightning.

UPDATE

Issued at 827 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The day is off to another warm and humid, but quiet, start. Some low and mid-level clouds continue to stream off the Gulf and across the central and SWFL peninsula as deep layer moisture remains persistent. However, there is a drier layer from 900mb to 700mb. With the sun now rising and increasing vertical mixing, this is eroding those low- level clouds fairly quickly. They'll come back - at least in part - as daytime heating increases and air rises more quickly.

However, showers and thunderstorms look pretty sparse across most of the region today. There just doesn't look to be much convergence on the FL West Coast, and this means that most of the afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity should setup across the eastern half of the Florida peninsula, leaving the FL West Coast fairly warm and dry once more. However, there is a nonzero chance some storms could drift back towards the coast later this evening, and then deeper moisture pooling and instability ahead of the approaching frontal boundary will favor additional coastal showers late tonight and into tomorrow morning.

Overall, the forecast looks good this morning. No adjustments needed at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 827 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

While there are a couple pockets of low clouds still streaming across the interior, these are quickly eroding. VFR conditions then prevail through the day with some showers developing across the interior by mid-afternoon. This is most likely to impact KLAL; and as storms grow taller, a low chance for a thunderstorm is possible as well. Towards the evening, some storms may drift back to the coast, but should mostly wind down by midnight. As a late season frontal boundary approaches tomorrow, increasing moisture and instability with a continued WSW flow favors additional mainly shower activity developing towards morning, progressing inland and southward through the day. Drier air then settles across much of the region for the next few days, with a lower potential for impacts through the end of the week at most terminals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

West and northwest flow will hold today, continuing the pattern of a few showers or storms shifting onshore throughout the morning, then more widespread storm coverage developing over the interior during the afternoon hours. Rain chances will increase from north to south overnight and Wednesday as a weak front works south into the area. While a few stronger storms will be possible, especially over the Nature Coast during the evening hours, the front will quickly be losing upper level support as it pushes into the forecast area, limiting the severe storm risk for most of west central and southwest Florida. The front will stall out over southwest Florida Thursday night and Friday, splitting the area between limited rain chances north of Interstate 4 during the second half of the week, while more favorable moisture and higher rain chances will continue over the southern half of the area. Otherwise, northeast winds behind the front will advect in a slightly cooler and less humid airmass, dropping high temperatures into the low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday through early next week, surface high pressure will setup north of Florida, favoring easterly flow and allowing temperatures and humidity to gradually rebound. This pattern will favor isolated to scattered showers and storms developing each afternoon, mainly along sea breeze boundaries.

MARINE

Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

High pressure south of the waters will keep west and northwest flow in place today, supporting isolated showers and storms moving onshore at times through the morning hours. Tonight and Wednesday, a front will push south into the waters, bringing higher rain chances and allowing winds to turn to northerly and then easterly by late Wednesday and increasing to around advisory levels. Winds and seas will subside through the day on Thursday as high pressure builds in north of the waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Light northwest flow will hold today, with a few showers shifting into the Florida Peninsula from the Gulf through the morning, then scattered to numerous showers and storms developing over the interior during the afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms will become more numerous tonight and Wednesday as a front pushes south into the area, with winds turning to northeasterly and increasing on Wednesday. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 76 84 72 / 20 60 70 30 FMY 93 76 87 72 / 20 30 70 60 GIF 92 73 83 71 / 50 60 60 10 SRQ 91 76 86 71 / 20 50 80 50 BKV 92 71 84 67 / 30 60 70 10 SPG 92 76 86 74 / 20 60 80 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.