textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light showers will move east to west across the state through the rest of the day.

- Higher shower chances with a few thunderstorms possible late Sunday and into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Ridging aloft remains over the state this afternoon with shortwave energy moving along the northern Gulf coast toward the region. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the mid-Atlantic states and is ridging southward across Florida, keeping a low-level east-northeast wind flow in place. Hi-res guidance has so far struggled with the light rain that has been moving southeast to northwest across the central part of the state but would expect additional light rain to continue to form and shift westward through the rest of the day and possibly into tonight in the easterly boundary layer flow, though impacts would be more of a nuisance than anything.

For tonight into Sunday, shortwave energy will spread across Florida as a surface trough tries to form in the eastern Gulf. Precipitable water values are forecast to be 2+ inches and with the enhanced lift from the shortwave, numerous/widespread showers are in the forecast, along with a few storms. Best timing appears to be late Sunday through early afternoon on Monday as these features slowly shift away from the area. As far as rainfall, we are under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with widespread 1 to 2 inches forecast and about a 10-20% chance of rainfall totals over 3 inches through Monday night. Some minor flooding would be possible if larger amounts fell quickly, but impacts are expected to be limited otherwise.

High pressure builds back in briefly for Tuesday into Wednesday before another shortwave moves into the southeast Wednesday night and Thursday with another one right behind it. This second one will eventually help push a cold front across Florida Friday, with drier air building in for next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Fast-moving light showers continue to stream east to west across the state today and could go over area terminals at just about any time, though any impacts should be brief and limited. Thinking there will be a break in showers tonight, then higher rain chances return for tomorrow, mainly in the afternoon toward the end of or beyond the current forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 East-northeast winds to exercise caution and near advisory levels will remain over the waters through the next several days. Rain chances increase for late tomorrow into Monday, then high pressure and drier weather returns for mid-week with winds diminishing.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Rain chances increase for late Sunday into Monday with numerous showers and a few storms expected, then high pressure builds back in for mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 72 81 70 82 / 20 70 50 40 FMY 74 84 71 84 / 20 70 50 60 GIF 72 82 69 83 / 40 70 60 60 SRQ 72 81 69 82 / 20 60 50 40 BKV 71 81 67 83 / 30 60 40 40 SPG 73 79 70 80 / 20 60 50 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.