textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- High risk of dangerous rip currents along area beaches today.

- Hazardous marine conditions with large choppy seas persists today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move slowly to the west away from the forecast area and is currently centered about 130 miles to the west southwest of Panama City Florida. Gusty southerly winds persist over the coastal waters, but have basically pulled away from the mainland peninsula. A high risk of rip currents will continue today along area beaches.

Much drier air aloft has advected over the forecast area with PCPW values in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range. This will greatly reduce areal coverage of afternoon showers/thunderstorms today and Thursday. South to southeast boundary layer flow will persist across west central and southwest Florida for the next couple of days, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours with highest pops central and south in region of best available deep layer moisture. The decreased cloud cover/rain will allow temperatures to climb back to several degrees above climatic normals.

Deep layer moisture will increase central and south on Friday and hold over the region during the weekend with greatest areal coverage of afternoon storms in that region...with relatively low pops continuing north.

Early next week, the boundary layer flow will veer to the southwest and become increasingly onshore. This will shift the highest pops to the interior during the mid/late afternoon hours...with the best chance for a shower or thunderstorm over the coastal counties during the morning and early afternoon. This pattern will hold through mid week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 VFR conditions under predominately partly cloudy skies expected for the next 24 hours with FEW-SCT 030-040 and SCT250. Breezy south winds will develop by mid morning and will begin to subside during the mid/late afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1215 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Hazardous marine conditions will persist today as gusty south winds will continue during the early part of the day, but will gradually subside as Tropical Storm Bertha moves further away from the waters. Elevated seas will be very slow to recede which will maintain advisory levels conditions throughout the day across the northern and central waters. Winds will continue to subside tonight and Thursday, however seas will likely remain a bit elevated.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. Elevated dispersions will occur this afternoon across portions of the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 79 94 79 / 10 10 10 10 FMY 94 76 96 77 / 40 20 30 10 GIF 96 76 96 76 / 10 30 10 0 SRQ 93 77 95 77 / 10 10 10 10 BKV 95 73 96 73 / 20 10 10 10 SPG 91 79 93 79 / 10 10 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.