textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 739 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day...be prepared to alter outdoor events if lightning and thunder are seen or heard.

- The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will range from late night and morning near the west coast then shifting inland into the interior by late afternoon and evening each day into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 739 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of shower/thunderstorm activity. Isolated/scattered convection will be around this morning, but then most activity will shift east of the TAF sites this afternoon and evening. A similar pattern is expected for tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Upper level trough along and just off the U.S. east coast will gradually deepen and shift southwest as we move through the weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile at the surface, the ridge axis will remain to the south of the region. This setup will keep an overall northwest to west flow across the area during this time. Abundant moisture will also continue and with this pattern we'll have a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms each day. The pattern favors isolated to scattered late night and morning convection over the coastal waters moving onshore and then shifting inland into the interior and becoming more numerous by late afternoon and evening each day.

As we move into the second half of next week, the upper level trough will begin to move away and the surface ridge axis will move back north of the region. This will allow our more typical east to southeast flow to return along with the best timing for convection during the afternoon and evening hours back closer to the west coast.

With the northwest to west flow in place and plenty of moisture the daytime highs will remain near normal, while overnight lows are near to a few degrees above normal.

MARINE

Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Northwest to west flow will remain in place into early next week with wind speeds 15 knots or less. Deep tropical moisture will persist over the waters during this time leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms at almost anytime, but highest chances will be during the late night and morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day and with additional rainfall expected, soils should continue to absorb more water, and lower immediate concerns for dry fuels. With relative humidity values remaining well above critical thresholds, and no significant concerns for strong winds to yield high dispersions across most of the area, fire weather concerns are low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 79 88 79 / 20 20 40 40 FMY 92 78 91 78 / 20 10 20 10 GIF 91 76 89 76 / 50 30 50 20 SRQ 90 78 90 79 / 20 20 30 30 BKV 90 76 88 75 / 20 30 50 40 SPG 91 79 90 80 / 20 20 40 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.