textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Light showers will move east to west across the state through late evening.

- Higher shower chances with a few thunderstorms possible on Sunday into Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Light rain showers have been steadily moving from east to west across central and southwest Florida this afternoon and evening. Radar is showing a few light showers remaining over central Florida, but the latest HRRR guidance shows shower coverage diminishing overnight as they move westward over the Gulf. Made some slight tweaks to POPs for the next 6 hours based on latest radar trends and HRRR guidance, otherwise forecast is tracking fine for now.

On Sunday, shortwave energy will spread across Florida as a surface trough tries to form in the eastern Gulf. Precipitable water values are forecast to be 2+ inches and with the enhanced lift from the shortwave, numerous/widespread showers are in the forecast, along with a few storms. Best timing appears to be Sunday afternoon through early afternoon on Monday as these features slowly shift away from the area. As far as rainfall, we are under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall, with widespread 1 to 2 inches forecast and about a 10-20% chance of rainfall totals over 3 inches through Monday night. Some minor flooding would be possible if larger amounts fell quickly, but impacts are expected to be limited otherwise.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Fast-moving light showers continue to stream east to west across central Florida, so will hold VCSH for TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ for the next few hours, then mostly rain-free at all locations overnight. Higher rain chances and a few storms return for Sunday, mainly in the afternoon, so will keep SHRA and VCTS at all locations during that time. East-northeast winds around 5-10 knots expected overnight, then becoming more gusty late morning and into the afternoon with some higher gusts around 18-20 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

East-northeast winds to exercise caution and near advisory levels will remain over the waters through the next several days. Rain chances increase for Sunday into Monday with scattered showers and storms possible. High pressure and drier weather returns for mid- week with winds diminishing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 72 81 70 82 / 30 70 50 40 FMY 74 84 71 84 / 20 70 50 60 GIF 72 82 69 83 / 40 70 60 60 SRQ 72 81 69 82 / 30 60 50 40 BKV 71 81 67 83 / 30 60 40 40 SPG 73 79 70 80 / 30 60 50 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.