textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the morning hours, especially this weekend.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Weak high pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula today with light easterly boundary layer flow. W/V imagery continues to show best deep layer moisture remains south of the I-4 corridor, which will be the focus region for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Boundary layer flow will transition on Saturday becoming increasingly south to southwest. This will advect the deep layer moisture currently south of I-4 north across the nature coast, and will shift the region for highest pops to the interior. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected to develop during the morning/early afternoon hours and push inland increasing in areal coverage during the mid/late afternoon hours. This pattern will hold on Sunday.

Boundary layer flow will veer a bit to the south and southeast early next week. Highest pops will continue to persist over the interior as the west coast sea breeze boundary is expected to push inland by mid afternoon each day. During the mid/late week period, some drier air aloft may advect over the forecast area which would decrease areal coverage of storms, but still scattered afternoon/evening storms will occur each day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 A few storms from Sarasota and south will create LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs vcnty SRQ/PGD/FMY/RSW, with SRQ most likely to be briefly impacted. Otherwise, skies are expected to become FEW- SCT250 later tonight. SCT LCL BKN 030-040 will develop vcnty of all terminals Friday morning/early afternoon. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs will develop Friday afternoon with the best chance of storms impacting SRQ/PGD/FMY/RSW.

MARINE

Issued at 1208 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the forecast period with relatively light winds and seas. The main hazard on Friday will be scattered showers and storms during the late afternoon/evening hours with locally gusty winds and rough seas. The pattern will shift a bit over the weekend with the best chance of storms during the overnight and early morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as abundant low level moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 80 91 81 / 60 20 50 30 FMY 92 78 92 78 / 60 30 50 40 GIF 94 76 93 76 / 60 30 70 30 SRQ 92 79 92 79 / 50 40 50 30 BKV 95 74 93 74 / 40 20 60 40 SPG 92 80 91 81 / 50 30 50 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.