textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Fair, warm, and dry conditions expected today and Wednesday.

- A few showers will be possible over the Nature Coast Thursday, then much better rain chances across the entire region late Saturday through Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Upper level ridging over the Gulf will extend northeast through Florida today and Wednesday, while the surface ridge north of the state today settles south across the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. This pattern will keep warm and dry conditions in place, with near zero percent rain chances through Wednesday evening, and afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. On Thursday, a mid level shortwave will move east off the Gulf and into Florida while a weak frontal boundary pushes into northern Florida and stalls out through the rest of the week. This will lead to low end chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, mainly over the Nature Coast counties. Despite the rain chances, the front will not advance far enough south during this initial push to lower temperatures noticeably.

During the weekend, a deeper shortwave will round the base of the mid level low and give the frontal boundary a stronger push into central Florida. As a result moisture and rain chances will increase on Saturday ahead of the front with scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast for areas north of Interstate 4, and then spreading across the area Saturday night and Sunday as the front pushes into the area. Because the front will not have enough upper level support to cleanly push through the area, lingering moisture Sunday night and Monday will allow for rain chances to continue into Monday. Otherwise, temperatures behind the front on Sunday will drop to as much as 10 degrees below normal under northerly winds, with the largest drops in temperatures over northern and central portions of the forecast area. Temperatures will then quickly rebound back to near normal on Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Patches of low stratus could push west into area terminals early this morning, causing periods of MVFR or perhaps IFR ceilings through around 14z. Otherwise VFR conditions are forecast to hold through the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026 High pressure north of the waters will settle south through the rest of the week, with east and southeast flow today and Wednesday turning onshore in the afternoon with the sea breeze. Winds will transition to westerly and southwesterly Thursday through the end of the week. Wind speeds and thunderstorm chances will also increase on Saturday ahead of an approaching front, with cautionary or perhaps Small Craft Advisory conditions expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A dry air mass will hold in place through the rest of the week, with relative humidity percentages dropping into the mid to upper 30s each afternoon. However, wind speeds will not be high enough to produce widespread Red Flag conditions. High dispersion indices will be possible each afternoon this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 70 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 91 69 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 91 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 88 69 85 70 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 91 61 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 90 73 87 75 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.