textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions expected to continue for the next several days. Heat Advisory today from 11 AM to 7 PM for all of west central and southwest Florida. - Below normal rain chances and coverage today into Monday, then increasing moisture from north to south returns rain chances closer to normal from Tuesday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Continued hot conditions to close out the weekend as U/L ridging persists across the Deep South promoting strong subsidence locally, and surface ridging extends E-W across the peninsula with generally light flow. Saturday evening's 00Z KTBW upper air sounding sampled a 500 mb height of 5970 m and 850 mb temp of 19.8 deg C, both above the 95th percentile for August, with the 500 mb height within a few meters of the August record value. GFS/Euro continue to indicate U/L heights over the region remaining above the 90th percentile through the initial part of the work week while gradually moderating, then falling more in line with climatology by mid week and beyond, translating to the aforementioned continued hot conditions through the early part of the week. Drier air in association with the SAL advecting across the peninsula, particularly south of I-4, will act to further inhibit convective development this afternoon, limiting rain chances to around 10% or less for most of the local area and offering little in the way of relief from the heat. While the sea breeze will temper high temps along the immediate coast to the lower 90s, temps elsewhere across the area will climb into the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices reaching as high as 108-112 degrees, warranting another Heat Advisory today from 11 AM to 7 PM for all of WC/SWFL.

While high pressure gradually begins to loosen its grip over the area on Mon-Tue allowing high temps and max heat indices to fall a degree or two, advisory criteria indices and additional Heat Advisory issuances remain possible for most of the area. An uptick in rain chances as moisture recovers across the area from north to south will lead to isolated to scattered showers and storms across northern Nature Coast areas on Monday, expanding southward into WCFL and parts of SWFL on Tuesday as the surface ridge sinks south and boundary layer flow becomes onshore. Flow looks to remain generally onshore through week's end while PWATs climb back above 2 inches area wide, translating to morning into early afternoon coastal showers/storms spreading into the interior and increasing in coverage in the afternoons. While the moist onshore flow will maintain humid and muggy conditions, the presence of cloud cover and convection should temper temps a bit, with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s immediate coastal and lower/mid 90s elsewhere.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Dry conditions prevail over the peninsula, with generally VFR expected through the period. An isolated shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out, however chances remain too low to warrant mention this cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

High pressure will remain over the waters through the period with generally light winds and seas. Isolated showers and storms will be possible each day, particularly from Tuesday onward, most likely during the overnight and early morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

High pressure across the area will lead to continued above normal temperatures for the next several days. No fire weather hazards expected as minimum relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 80 94 82 / 10 0 0 10 FMY 96 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 97 77 97 78 / 20 10 10 0 SRQ 94 78 93 79 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 95 76 94 78 / 10 10 10 20 SPG 93 80 93 82 / 10 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.