textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions continue remainder of the week before slight uptick in rain chances this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 827 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Recent water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough across the central Gulf this evening with an area of convection associated with this feature. This disturbance is projected to track further south of the forecast area as it moves into the SE Gulf and FL Straits/Cuba region. This will bring the majority of the deeper moisture and better rain chances with it so the forecast will remain dry overnight with mostly an increase in cloud cover into tomorrow for the TBW CWA. However, low-level southeasterly flow will continue to bring a gradually moistening trend into Thursday with dewpoints a touch higher than last night so overnight lows will be a bit warmer with lows in the 50s to near 60 for interior areas and mid 60s for coastal locations, which will be a bit more closer to normal as opposed to the relatively cooler conditions the past couple of nights.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026 A west/northwest flow continues aloft this afternoon with a few weak shortwaves moving over the region. At the surface, high pressure remains situated over the area and will remain in place before a weak boundary moves into the southeastern U.S. this weekend. Boundary layer flow will become more westerly as the boundary helps shift the high pressure area southward, and moisture will also increase, which will lead to a few showers late this week and this weekend. Early next week then features low rain chances once again along with warming temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with mostly ESE winds, though winds will shift onshore at coastal sites Thursday afternoon as a sea breeze develops. In addition, light SHRA may develop mostly in SWFL by late afternoon or evening tomorrow, but any activity that develops is expected to be light with minimal VSBY impacts.

MARINE

Issued at 227 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Southeast winds will remain over the waters through the end of the week, with a turn onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. No headlines are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 227 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026 No Red Flag conditions are expected for the next several days as moisture gradually increases and winds remain below 15 mph. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 84 65 85 67 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 85 63 85 65 / 0 0 20 20 GIF 82 61 85 63 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 84 63 84 65 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 84 56 87 58 / 0 0 10 10 SPG 84 70 85 71 / 0 0 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.