textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 820 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Above normal temps and mostly dry conditions through early this week with heat indices topping 100 degrees each afternoon. - Increasing shower and storm chances will spread northward across the area, particularly from around mid week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The recent theme of ridging over the local area continues this morning with warm and mostly dry conditions expected to continue into the work week. Temps over the next couple days will run above normal as a result, with highs in the 90s and areas of mid/upper 90s likely this afternoon and Monday, while heat indices of 100-105 degrees will be likely. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will remain limited to SWFL areas this afternoon through early evening before gradually expanding northward into parts of WCFL on Mon-Tue.

Ridging aloft weakens by mid week with a weakness developing over the E U.S. and local area, while the surface ridging gradually shifts into the W Atlantic allowing winds locally to shift from easterly to southerly over the latter half of the week as deeper moisture advects northward out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf. Rain chances increase markedly over the latter half of the week across all of W FL, with scattered to numerous showers/storms expected in association with the increase in moisture. Afternoon highs will fall back closer to normal given the cloud cover and convection, generally in the lower/mid 90s mid week and upper 80s/lower 90s late week into the weekend.

The unsettled pattern looks to continue through next weekend, offering at least a drop in the bucket in terms of overall relief from the ongoing drought plaguing the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 820 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions through the period with winds mainly out of the east with a seabreeze setting up in the afternoon and evening along the coastal sites. A small uptick in moisture will produce isolated storms in SW Florida around FMY and RSW during the late evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Ridging over the W Atlantic extending across the waters holds through much of the week with gradually increasing moisture and associated showers/storms spreading northward, particularly from mid week into next weekend. Winds remain easterly through mid week while turning onshore in the afternoon near the coast with the sea breeze. Ridging shifts east late in the week with winds becoming southerly while shower/storm coverage continues to increase over the waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Drier air remains over the area today with afternoon RHs falling to critical levels for areas from around the I-4 corridor northward. Winds will remain below 15 mph limiting fire concerns. Afternoon RHs will fall to just above critical levels on Monday with winds once again limiting fire concerns. Moisture gradually recovers through the week, with shower/storm coverage limited to SWFL into parts of WCFL through the early part of the week before expanding across the remainder of the peninsula from mid week into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 78 94 79 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 94 76 95 76 / 20 30 20 30 GIF 93 73 95 76 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 94 76 94 77 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 95 73 96 75 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 95 78 95 79 / 0 0 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.