textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical RH values across the region the next few days.

- Above average temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Broad upper level ridging centered in the southern Gulf ridges east- northeastward across Florida to Bermuda. On the surface, high pressure located east of Bermuda ridges west-southwest across Florida and into the eastern Gulf. This pattern remains relatively unchanged until Sunday morning, when upper troughing digs south through the Mississippi River Valley and a weak frontal boundary pushes through the southeast U.S. This will nudge the upper ridging and surface high slightly southward on Sunday and Monday. The weather through Sunday will be remain hot and rain-free each day. Daytime highs will reach the 90s for today through Sunday with overnight lows dipping into the 50s and 60s each night. The next best chance of any rain will be next Monday afternoon as the weak front moves through the area, but will remain on the low side at only 10-30 percent over the interior and southwest Florida. Slightly cooler temperatures closer to average is expected for the first half of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR and rain-free conditions along with winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

High pressure east of Bermuda ridges across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters keeping light winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less over the region through the weekend. Winds will turn onshore during the afternoon/evening as the sea breeze sets up. This high pressure will also keep rain-free conditions over the Gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend. A cold front moves through the region on Monday, but rainfall will be limited with mostly rain-free conditions continuing. Winds and seas will increase in the wake of this front as strong high pressure builds in from the north producing a tight pressure gradient over the eastern Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed starting early Monday morning and continuing through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

High pressure ridging over the area will keep rain-free conditions over the area through the weekend. Some critical RH values below 35 percent expected, but light winds below 15 mph will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. The next chance of any rainfall comes next Monday as a weak cold front moves through the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 90 69 91 69 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 90 67 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 87 68 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 90 60 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 88 72 88 73 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.