textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue today.

- Hazardous marine conditions with breezy northerly winds and building seas expected on Sunday and Monday.

- Cooler weather will return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Changes are coming after many days of the same weather pattern. Today will once again be warm and dry. However, Sunday a weak cold front will move over Florida bringing a slight chance of showers. Currently, the highest chance for showers will mostly be over the waters and portions of the nature coast. Behind this cold front as high pressure builds back in, cooler and drier conditions will filter in to start the week. Temperatures will only warm slightly by Tuesday as another cold front moves over the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing a better chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Following that front high pressure sets up again over the southeast pushing cold air over Florida by the end of the week. Current forecast shows widespread temperatures in the low to mid 30s Friday morning. Cold weather products will likely be issued as the Friday gets closer. Overall, this upcoming week looks to be quite different compared to this past week in regards to temperatures.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the day. Winds will shift form the SE to SW later this afternoon. There is a chance of early morning fog and/or low clouds once again for Sunday ahead of the cold front that will move through later in the day. Otherwise, overcast skies are expected throughout much of Sunday, with periods of less than VFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 1226 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Another day of pleasant marine weather today before a cold front approaches the waters early Sunday morning. This front will bring a chance of showers and increased winds. Winds expected to increase to around 20-25kts Sunday afternoon through late Monday, hence a small craft advisory has been issued. There will also be a high risk for rip currents Sunday through Monday afternoon as well. Marine conditions begin to improve Tuesday, but winds expected to increase once again Thursday as another front moves over the area bringing showers and possible storms once again.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

A cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday, bringing a slight chance of showers, mainly to the nature coast. RH values will drop slightly following the front, but should remain above critical levels. Another front moves through Wednesday into Thursday bringing a higher chance of rain throughout the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 65 74 49 68 / 0 20 0 0 FMY 64 81 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 63 78 50 69 / 0 10 0 0 SRQ 65 76 51 71 / 0 10 0 0 BKV 58 73 39 68 / 0 30 0 0 SPG 66 74 54 69 / 0 20 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.