textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Critically low relative humidity values over the interior today.

- Warming trend continues through through the week.

- Next chance of rain is on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

High pressure is expected to be overhead today bringing light winds, dry conditions and a quick warm up with highs reaching the mid 80's this afternoon. We will see a repeat of these conditions on Monday with a cool morning in the mid 50's and highs getting into the mid 80's.

As we head into our Tuesday a weak cold front will stall over north Florida. This will bring some isolated showers mainly north of I-4 in the afternoon and evening hours. The Nature Coast will also see slightly cooler conditions with highs in the low 80's. For the rest of West Central and Southwest Florida that will be south of the front highs will be returning in the mid to upper 80's. Models show the front shifting slightly farther south on Wednesday along the I-4 corridor. This will result in some isolated showers mainly in the interior in the afternoon and highs once again being separated with low to mid 80's north of I-4 and upper 80's to near 90 degrees south of I-4.

By Thursday the front will have dissipated as ridging comes back over the area. This will bring near record breaking heat back into the area for Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 80's to near 90 degrees for everyone. Another cold front is expected to to push through Florida next Saturday. This front once again will only produce some isolated showers as it passes through the area during the afternoon and evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

High pressure will remain in control over the area through Tuesday with winds mainly over the north and northwest around 5 knots. A weak cold front will be stall over the area on Wednesday before dissipating on Thursday. This will only cause a minor increase in winds to 5 to 10 knots out of the north.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

We will see critical RHs away from the coast once again this afternoon but with high pressure overhead winds will remain light. Humidity will slowly be on the rise but critical RHs are will expected south of I-4 both Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday minimum Rhs will remain above critical level for the whole area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 61 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 84 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 86 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 79 59 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 81 53 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 81 64 80 65 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.