textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through Thursday, with another Heat Advisory likely to be needed as a high risk of heat impacts continue.

- Moisture gradually continues to increase, leading to greater chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially as the weekend approaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 803 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

A few thunderstorms continue across the region this evening as the sun sets. However, activity should wind down over the next few hours as energy from daytime heating fades. The expectation is for an overall quiet night before thunderstorms begin developing earlier tomorrow with a westerly flow persisting.

Overall, the forecast looks on track. Warm and humid conditions continue to be a concern, with another heat advisory likely needed again tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Upper level low over Hudson Bay producing longwave trough through the Ohio River Valley into the Deep South continues to slowly weaken the upper heat dome ridge over the region through the rest of the week. Expect the high heat index values into Thu before increased cloud cover and slightly lower temps and RHs return back to around normal FL warm and humid summertime conditions.

At the surface, the high pressure ridge axis over S FL and the S Gulf will weekend but keep the generally westerly low level flow in place with morning showers and a few storms developing over the E Gulf waters and moving inland during the late morning hours, then becoming more widespread in the afternoons as the convection moves inland. With upper troughiness into the Deep South expect several vort maxes, upper energy and instability to rotate overhead at times enhancing storm coverage or intensity thru the weekend. Some pockets of residual drier air aloft are also expected to remain over the region further complicating PoP coverage as well. Will keep near normal temps and PoPs over the weekend and early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 803 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to wind down, with too low of a probability for any VCTS mention before 14Z tomorrow. However, the continued westerly flow and additional moisture do favor more thunderstorms tomorrow, but earlier in the day. The westerly flow should push most of this activity inland and eastward by mid-to-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm impacts will be possible at terminals over the next several days, with the earlier timing persisting as the westerly flow remains in place.

MARINE

High pressure over the Southern Gulf keeping westerly onshore flow with winds around 10-15 knots with higher gusts through the day which will increase wave activity along the beaches. Winds begin to subside Thursday into the weekend allowing seas to subside. Seas may be choppier as the afternoon seabreeze develops and persists into the weekend. Expect overnight and early morning showers/storms will be possible through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure over the region will keep the very warm and humid conditions in place across fire districts. There will be chances for showers and storms in the morning near the coast, before pushing inland and become more widespread as onshore flow prevails. The main weather concern continues to be the heat and gusty erratic afternoon thunderstorm winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 81 92 79 90 / 10 50 30 40 FMY 79 94 77 93 / 10 40 20 40 GIF 77 95 76 94 / 10 60 20 60 SRQ 79 92 77 91 / 10 40 30 30 BKV 76 94 74 92 / 10 50 30 60 SPG 81 92 80 90 / 10 40 30 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.