textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front brings rainshowers to the area this morning and afternoon.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected through Friday morning.

- Next shot of freezing temperatures expected on Friday morning.

- Warm up expected over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

A cold front is currently pushing through the Nature Coast early this morning and will progress southeastward through the morning and into the early afternoon. Scattered showers can be expected ahead of and in the vicinity of this front. This cold front pushes south and east of Florida by later this evening with gradual clearing conditions expected as high pressure builds in from the west.

As this high pressure ridges eastward, another cold air mass will filter into Florida on Friday morning with freezing temperatures likely once again north of Tampa Bay along portions of the Nature Coast. A Freeze Warning has been issued for inland Citrus and Levy Counties for early Friday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory has also been issued for parts of west central Florida for wind chills in the mid 20s to mid 30s on Friday morning. This next shot of cold air will not be as potent and long lasting as the one over the past weekend and earlier this week.

After starting out on the cold side Friday morning, a mild and breezy day is expected on Friday afternoon with sunny skies and daytime highs reaching the low to mid 60s. After another mild day in the 60s and 70s on Saturday afternoon, a brief shot of cold air is expected early Sunday morning with lows dipping into the mid 30s to mid 40s. A warming trend will set up over the area into early next week with overnight lows Monday and Tuesday mornings dipping only into the 40s each night and then into the 50s by mid week. Daytime highs Sunday through Thursday next week will top out in the 70s each day, and possibly reaching the 80s by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

A cold front pushing through west central and southwest Florida this morning and into the afternoon will produce -SHRA and some MVFR/IFR CIGs through the first half of the period. Most of the showers will push southeast of the area after 18Z with improving VFR conditions expected for the latter part of the period. The other aviation impact will be gusty NW winds up to 30 knots in the wake of this front. Winds will subside to around 10-15 knots Thursday night after 00Z.

MARINE

Issued at 126 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

A cold front moving through the eastern gulf waters today will produce scattered showers and increasing winds and seas. Hazardous marine conditions expected starting this morning and has prompted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for all the eastern gulf waters including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor for winds around 20- 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots and seas 5-9 feet. Conditions slowly improve on Saturday to around 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet. Pleasant marine conditions continue into the weekend and the first half of next week with winds around 10 knots and seas 2 feet or less expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

A cold front will move through the region today producing scattered showers through the afternoon as it moves through the area. More dry air filters into the region behind this front on Friday and into the weekend with some critical RH values expected. But, the winds are expected to remain below 15 mph with no Red Flag Warnings needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 60 44 61 52 / 60 0 0 0 FMY 65 41 64 51 / 80 0 0 0 GIF 61 37 63 46 / 80 0 0 0 SRQ 62 45 62 53 / 70 0 0 0 BKV 60 32 61 43 / 50 0 0 0 SPG 62 47 63 56 / 60 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EST this morning through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for Inland Citrus- Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.