textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing temperatures in the Nature Coast and cold weather hazards areawide tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue into mid week. - Warming trend mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Broad longwave trough continues from Hudson Bay down through the Eastern U.S. and into the Gulf with a very dry airmass over the state. Large cold dome of surface high pressure over the Deep South gets reinforced to keep the cold weather hazards over the area again tonight with a Freeze Warning for the Nature Coast area while winds of 5-10 mph will keep wind chills values of 25-35 degrees for the rest of the area. Also expect widespread frost overnight in N FL with patchy frost possible in wind protected areas of W Central FL.

The high pressure center will eventually move eastward by Wed with slow and gradually moderating temps and humidity mid to late week. Another complex but weak frontal system is expected to move into the region with a slight chance of showers late week that may linger into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) SKC and VFR conditions continue rest of today, tonight into Tue with occasionally gusty northerly winds diminishing aft 00Z.

MARINE

The pressure gradient is expected to remain tight over the region producing hazardous N-NE winds and choppy seas in SE Gulf waters to keep mainly Exercise Caution headlines but occasionaly Advisory levels are at times through mid week. A frontal system will move across the region with a chance of showers late week.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry and cool conditions to continue with critically low RH values but winds should be less than 15 mph to prevent red flag conditions. Warming conditions with gradually increasing moisture expected mid to late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 39 66 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 40 71 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 36 66 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 39 68 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 28 64 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 46 66 53 74 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Levy-Sumter.

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

Gulf waters...None.