textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief warm-up today before Sunday cold front brings morning showers followed by breezy afternoon conditions and falling temperatures.

- Freeze/frost potential Monday morning with cold weather products areawide, with lingering but diminishing area of freeze/frost potential on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

- Late week warming trend with slight rain chances returning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Broad troughing aloft encompasses the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS this morning while surface high pressure shifts into the Atlantic with southerly flow setting up locally today ahead of the next approaching cold front. Following a cold start this morning with fairly widespread freeze and frost conditions north of I-4 and spotty conditions southward, the southerly flow and increasing moisture will allow temps to warm into the 70s this afternoon. The short-lived warm up will abruptly end on Sunday as a strong cold front sweeps across the area in association with a sharp shortwave pushing across the SE U.S. Blustery northerly winds develop late morning into afternoon behind the front resulting in temps mostly holding steady early before falling through the afternoon. Another round of hazardous conditions are expected, initially for mariners during the day as post-frontal winds and seas increase to SCA levels, then Sunday night into Monday morning as temps fall below freezing for northern and central locations and dangerous feels like temps develop across the entire area. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Levy County southward through Hillsborough and Polk counties, with a Cold Weather Advisory likely to be required areawide for Monday morning as well, while Hard Freeze potential will exist across parts of the Nature Coast. High pressure slowly treks east across the E U.S. through mid week allowing temps to slowly moderate, although temps will remain below normal during that time before approaching normal to slightly above normal over the latter half of the week as flow veers more easterly allowing Atlantic moisture to increase over the area and rain chances to return ahead of another shortwave and associated frontal system that sweeps across the SE U.S. late in the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR expected through the period although VFR cigs AOA 5 kft are currently being observed across SWFL terminals in association with northward advecting moisture surging across the peninsula. Model and latest ACARS soundings from RSW and SRQ indicate boundary layer remains notably dry which should prevent sub-VFR cigs. Overall cloud coverage will increase through the day while winds become southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front that will bring showers and gusty post-frontal winds on Sunday along with associated restrictions.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

High pressure ridging across the waters from the Atlantic will keep marine conditions below headline criteria through tonight. Winds will increase beginning early Sunday morning ahead of a cold front that will bring chances of rain and Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday and Sunday night. Conditions will improve on Monday, but a tight pressure gradient will keep winds around Exercise Caution levels through the middle of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Moisture recovery continues today as southerly flow is established ahead of a cold front that will push across the state on Sunday. Gusty northerly winds developing across the area behind the front will usher another surge of cool dry air into the state, leading to widespread critical RH values on Monday and Tuesday afternoons before gradually recovering areawide by Wednesday. Elevated winds linger into Monday afternoon but are expected to remain below 15 mph, with Low SFP risk limiting overall fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 72 56 65 38 / 0 20 60 0 FMY 76 57 74 42 / 0 0 20 0 GIF 74 54 66 35 / 0 10 40 0 SRQ 73 54 70 38 / 0 10 50 0 BKV 74 46 61 28 / 0 30 70 0 SPG 72 59 66 43 / 0 20 60 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter.

Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Frost Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Pasco.

Gulf waters...None.