textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for eastern portions of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon.

- Locally heavy rain possible tomorrow afternoon.

UPDATE

The local atmosphere has been worked over and rain cooled in many areas after the very active afternoon of thunderstorms. Beneficial rainfall fell over much of the Nature Coast and interior Florida Counties but was more variable around the Tampa Bay area southward thru SW FL. The weak, slow moving and complex frontal system from the Gulf across the FL Peninsula will keep unsettled conditions in the region tonight under mostly cloudy skies with light showers possible overnight but rainfall is expected to remain generally light.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Expect mainly VFR conditions tonight as a frontal system keeps SCT-BKN mid cloud decks overhead with ISOLD brief SHRA moving off the Gulf to keep SHRA in Tampa Bay area terminals thru at least 09Z. Increasing SW-Westerly winds to develop Wed aft 15Z to move afternoon TSRA well inland.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

A frontal boundary is pushing through the state. As it does so we are see some stronger cell developing along the boundary. We can expect these storms to continue to track inland throughout the afternoon hours with most areas dry by the last evening hours. Some high res models redevelop showers along the coast in West Central Florida overnight but not expecting any strong storms. By Wednesday morning the front should be draped over I-4 and continue to push south. With the front still lingering we will see the instability and moisture still around the area. The westerly flow, however, will keep most of the shower and storm activity to the interior and eastern half of the state.

As we get into Thursday and Friday drier air will start to filter in stopping any shower activity from forming. RHs will also be dropping in the mid 30's by Friday.

The moisture will slowly start to increase mainly in south Florida during the weekend.This will bring some isolated afternoon showers back into the forecast. However, the bigger story for the weekend will be the heat with highs topping out in the low to mid 90's away from the coast. By next Monday moisture will continue to rise and the flow shifting more easterly. This will be better news for our coastal communities as evening storms should push off the west coast.

MARINE

Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Some showers and storms will continue in the Gulf through Wednesday evening as a slow moving cold front will be pushing through the state. Winds during that time will be mainly out of the west around 5 to 10 knots. By Thursday we will see drier air filtering in as winds shift to the northwest for the rest of the week around 5 to 10 knots. By Saturday winds will be shifting southeast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

A slow moving cold front will be pushing through the state through Wednesday. This will bring us scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. By Thursday the front will be to our south and drier air will be filtering in. By Friday we will see some critical RHs in the mid 30 away from the coast but winds will be staying light. Moisture will slowly start to increase starting on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 74 86 72 87 / 40 20 20 0 FMY 74 89 73 90 / 10 30 10 10 GIF 71 88 70 89 / 40 50 10 10 SRQ 72 87 72 88 / 30 20 10 0 BKV 67 87 66 88 / 50 30 20 0 SPG 75 87 74 89 / 40 20 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.