textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions continue with near record high temperatures and heat index values of up to 110.

- Decreasing rain chances during the upcoming week.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity has for the most part dissipated across the region, although there could be an isolated shower/storm that briefly redevelops during the evening hours. Skies will become mostly clear after midnight across the region.

Drier air aloft will advect across the central and southern forecast area on Sunday, and combined with increasing onshore flow will decrease the chance of rain. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will develop on Sunday across the nature coast where best deep layer moisture will be with PCPW values AOA 2 inches. Increasing onshore flow during the afternoon hours will push convection inland and east of the CWA late in the day.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Scattered Cu clouds are decorating the skies across the state as day time heating does its part to destabilize the atmosphere. Upper level ridging continues to build over the region while troughiness remains to the east with disturbances riding along across the SE. At the surface, ridge axis is east keeping light south to southeasterly winds in place. This set up will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop early and outflow boundaries will push convection back towards the west coast during the late afternoon and evening. PWAT values will stay around 2 in., the ample instability available, the sea breeze, and additional U/L energy will support strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes. Residents and visitors should remain weather aware, especially if planning to be outdoors. High temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s resulting in triple digits heat indices as storms get delayed. A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7pm today. The public is urged to limit outdoor activities, stay hydrated and if outside, take breaks indoors.

On Sunday, slightly lower moisture may limit storm coverage with the highest chances over the interior and north of the I-4 corridor, as Saharan Dust moves over the state. Similar temperatures are anticipated though heat indices seem to be just below criteria.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

By next week, the Saharan Dust lingers especially across central and southern portions of the state while a frontal boundary stalls across north FL. Higher moisture will support showers and storms over the Nature Coast. Above normal temperature in place with highs in the mid 90s through the period. Overnight lows will also be very warm in the mid to upper 70s with coastal areas remaining around 80 degrees. Additional advisories may be needed. Relatively low rain chances prevail through most of the period with moisture increasing towards the end of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with skies becoming mostly clear at all terminals after midnight. Daytime heating on Sunday will create SCT035-045 with generally dry conditions expected...with best chance for an afternoon shower/storm at LAL.

MARINE

Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The main weather concern for mariners today will be showers and storms pushing back towards the coast later this afternoon and evening. Winds will remain pretty light through Wednesday staying between 5 to 10 knots. Drier conditions push in over the next few days with isolated storms chances through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

High pressure continues to be in control with warm and humid conditions expected through Wednesday and minimal fire concerns. Scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly in the evening and early overnight hours on Saturday. After that we can expected mainly dry conditions with only isolated storms chances through mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 93 81 93 / 20 40 20 20 FMY 77 96 78 96 / 10 20 10 10 GIF 75 96 76 97 / 20 40 10 10 SRQ 78 94 79 94 / 10 20 10 10 BKV 74 94 75 94 / 30 50 30 30 SPG 81 93 81 93 / 20 30 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.