textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Saharan dust will keep rain chances lower and daytime highs hotter over the next several days, Continue to practice good heat safety when spending time outdoors.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms, mainly north of I-4 and across the eastern interior through midweek. Strong gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the greatest threats.

UPDATE

Issued at 910 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

An overall westerly flow will remain across the area today as a weak surface boundary holds across the southeast U.S. and the surface ridge is to our south. A lot of mid and high clouds across the region again this morning which should delay the onset of convection some, with best chances expected to be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula later this afternoon and evening. Current forecast looks on track with no changes needed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 910 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon which could affect TPA, PIE, and LAL causing some MVFR/local IFR conditions. Otherwise, the southwest to west flow will keep most of the convection over the eastern half of the Florida peninsula this afternoon and evening, with VFR conditions prevailing. Light winds early this morning will become westerly at 6 to 10 knots late this morning into early this evening, then become light and variable again.

DISCUSSION

A weak upper trough is expected to move westward over the northern Gulf Coast as a weak surface frontal boundary sagging into N FL will nudge the weak surface ridge across the S Florida peninsula through mid week with light westerly flow setting up. Dry Saharan dust remains overhead as well with below normal areal rain chances. Cirrus cloud cover should help keep temps just a bit above normal while high heat index values from 102-107 range.

This weekend, an easterly wave is expected to move over the FL Peninsula and into the Gulf with increasing rain chances areawide into early next week as typical summertime heat and humidity continues.

MARINE

Weak high pressure sinking southward in the region will keep the warm and humid summertime conditions in place through the week. Generally southwesterly flow over the eastern Gulf will prevail with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast in the mornings moving inland during the afternoon. Westerly flow may increase late in the week with slightly elevated, choppy, and short period seas into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Weak high pressure in the region will keep the warm and humid summertime conditions in place through the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorm are expected with gusty erratic winds and frequent lightning possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 79 94 81 / 40 10 10 0 FMY 96 77 97 78 / 10 10 10 0 GIF 95 75 96 76 / 40 0 20 0 SRQ 94 78 95 80 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 93 74 94 76 / 50 10 10 10 SPG 92 80 94 82 / 30 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.