textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light showers will move east to west across areas around I-4 southward this afternoon and evening.

- Higher shower chances with a few thunderstorms possible late Sunday and into Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Areas of light rain could cause briefly lower cigs/vsbys around Tampa Bay this morning, then for the rest of the period, showers will be possible at just about any time. Hard to pinpoint any one timeframe, but this messy pattern will stick around through the forecast period, though overall rain chances will be higher starting tomorrow afternoon, just outside of this TAF period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Surface high pressure coupled with upper level ridging across Florida will keep conditions similar to yesterday. Enough moisture will be available to produce isolated to scattered showers throughout the day. Greatest chances will remain mostly south of I4 today. However, by Sunday, ridging aloft will break down as a mid level disturbance moves towards the area. Moisture increases Sunday as a stalled frontal boundary works northward over the peninsula. This will lead to more widespread coverage of showers through Sunday night into Monday. WPC has placed the entire region in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for excessive rainfall on Sunday. Localized urban flooding could be possible with heavy downpours, especially in typical troublesome areas. Beyond the rainfall potential, a tight pressure gradient remains in place, keeping conditions gusty.

Early in the week high pressure will build back in with clearing skies and decreased rain chances. Temperatures will also creep back up to above normal through the week. However, some relief will arrive following a cold front that is expected to move through Thursday into Friday. Once the cold front moves through, slightly cooler and drier air will filter in as next weekend arrives.

MARINE

Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Gusty exercise caution to near advisory level northeast winds continue as the pressure gradient remains tight. Rain chances will increased through the weekend into Monday. High pressure will build back in early next week, and winds will finally diminish below any headlines.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as relative humidity levels remain above critical values. Rain chances increase through the weekend into Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 73 81 70 / 20 20 60 60 FMY 87 74 85 71 / 40 20 70 70 GIF 86 72 82 70 / 20 30 60 70 SRQ 86 73 82 69 / 20 20 60 70 BKV 86 71 82 67 / 10 20 60 60 SPG 83 73 79 70 / 20 20 60 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.