textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain-free conditions with warming temperatures expected through midweek.

- Slight rain chances Thursday, then higher rain chances Sunday.

- Late night and early morning fog potential gradually increases through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 622 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

As the sun sets, mostly clear skies and light winds will again favor efficient radiational cooling overnight. This will allow temperatures to steadily drop into the upper 40s to low 50s during the night and early tomorrow morning. The steady temperature drop will favor a small T/Td spread across the interior and SWFL early tomorrow morning. Some shallow ground fog will be possible in response to the increasing humidity.

Overall the forecast looks on track. No changes are needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Warm, dry and pleasant conditions continue today and tomorrow as high pressure remains in control. High temperatures will top out in the mid 70s to low 80s throughout the week. With low temperatures holding in the 50s. There will be a potential for patchy fog in the late night/early morning hours over the next couple of days as some low level moisture works into the area. A weak cold front moves through Thursday brining a slight chance of showers, especially for areas north of I4. The boundary lingers over north FLorida until Friday, adding a little extra moisture to the area. Another cold front will dip down over the state Sunday, brining a better chance of showers and a the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm. Winds will also increase Sunday as the system moves through. By Monday, slightly drier air will move in as high pressure builds back over the area. Temperatures will cool off a degree or two, but will likely rebound quickly as the week goes on.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Only aviation concern is for some shallow ground fog to develop near sunrise tomorrow morning across the interior and SWFL. VFR otherwise prevails with light winds continuing over the next several days.

MARINE

Issued at 125 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Quiet, pleasant marine conditions continue today and tomorrow with the only concern being the possibility for sea fog development, especially off the nature coast. Otherwise, winds begin to increase early Sunday morning as a cold front moves over the waters. Likely will reach advisory levels by Sunday afternoon. By Tuesday morning winds will diminish and pleasant marine conditions will return.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

As high pressure remains in control, warm dry conditions persist. RH values will dip near critical values this afternoon. However, winds will be less than 15mph. Moisture begins to increase as the weekend approaches and a cold front moves through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 55 74 58 75 / 0 0 0 20 FMY 54 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 53 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 20 SRQ 53 72 57 74 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 45 76 52 77 / 0 0 10 20 SPG 56 72 61 74 / 0 0 0 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.