textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers move through the region overnight. The probability of thunderstorms is low.

- Hazardous to dangerous marine conditions begin late tonight and last through Friday morning. Inexperienced mariners should remain in harbor until conditions improve.

- A prolonged and significant cooldown begins tomorrow. Friday morning will be the coldest, but another front moving through on Sunday will push temperatures to be almost as cold to kick off the beginning of next week as well. Protect sensitive vegetation and exposed outdoor pipes, dress appropriately, and know the signs of hypothermia.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 848 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

The atmosphere continues to moisten this evening, and a couple of locations have finally reported light rain from the band currently in place across the Tampa Bay area. Another larger round of showers is expected to move across the area overnight as more of the pre-frontal energy enhances coverage. The cold front moves through the area early Thursday, with the upper trough moving through Thursday afternoon allowing clouds to clear and the very dry air behind the front to settle into the area. There will also be a very tight pressure gradient in place causing strong gusty winds and ushering in much colder air. Friday morning lows will be quite cold with mid to upper 20s in the Nature Coast, around 30 central with upper 30s to around 40 near the coast, and 30-35 southern-inland zones with upper 30s to lower 40s closer to the coast. Winds will be gradually diminishing overnight, but wind chills will still be a bit colder than lows, with mid to upper 20s felt across the Nature Coast and inland areas down through the area. Closer to the coast the feels-like temps will be lower to mid 30s. Temps moderate a bit for the weekend, but another front moves through the area Sunday, with Monday morning temps again seeing freezing for the Nature Coast and possibly down into portions of inland central zones.

Current forecast is on track with all of this. Have only made a few adjustments to the POPs for the light showers finally making it to the ground. Update is out.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 848 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

MVFR to possible periods of IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility possible overnight at the terminals as the prefrontal showers move through. Ceilings will gradually improve through the later morning and then clear out later in the afternoon. Winds will become very gusty in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 848 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop over the coastal waters as the front pushes through the area and the pressure gradient remains tight behind the front into early Friday. Winds increase again with the next front on Sunday, with possible headlines returning. Current forecast is on track and update is out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 55 61 36 61 / 70 30 0 0 FMY 59 68 36 66 / 70 60 0 0 GIF 53 61 32 62 / 70 30 0 0 SRQ 56 65 36 61 / 80 40 0 0 BKV 47 59 25 61 / 70 20 0 0 SPG 58 63 43 61 / 80 30 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.