textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the Nature Coast through Sunday. Marginal risk for the remainder of West Central and Southwest Florida.

- Flood Watch now in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 8 PM Monday.

- High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through the weekend.

REST OF TODAY

Large convective complex in the NE Gulf produced heavy rainfall this morning in coastal areas of the Northern Nature Coast with some localized flooding concerns. This activity is weakening with large stratiform rain shield but another upper vort max is rotating over that area with a few storms redeveloping 100 miles W of Cedar Key heading Eward. Will keep high PoPs over the Nature Coast as most of the previous activity slowly rains itself out, then additional storms move towards that area before eventually stabilizes conditions this evening. C and SW FL zones remain under SW flow regime with E Gulf and coastal scattered morning showers and few storms that continue to move inland with decreasing activity expected at the coast thru the afternoon.

Flood watch continues with several rounds of heavy rainfall expected across much of the Nature Coast through Sunday.

Persistent SW-W flow over the E Gulf continues to produce choppy 1-3 ft breaking waves along area beaches with a high risk of dangerous rip currents through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Previous discussion remains accurate.

PCPW values will be climbing back AOA 2.25 inches for the weekend and into Monday. An anomalously sharp U/L trough will dig over the eastern U.S. during the next couple of days with an associated frontal boundary pushing across the southeast U.S. and stalling over the Florida panhandle on Sunday. Deep southwest flow ahead of the front will persist over west central and southwest Florida for the next several days. The best U/L support and large scale lift will occur over the northeast Gulf and nature coast this afternoon through Monday...but the best dynamics looks to be in place late Saturday night and Sunday. The overall bulk of the shower/thunderstorm activity will be north of the Tampa Bay area, however, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will still occur across the entire forecast area each day. WPC has indicated that there is a slight risk for excessive rainfall for portions of the nature coast today and Sunday. This is very much supported by the dynamics/deep tropical moisture over the area and expected rounds of showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rain through Monday. For this reason, a flood watch has been issued for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties from noon today through Monday evening. Heaviest rainfall totals will likely occur near the coast, with locally 2 to 4 inches of rain possible each day with isolated higher amounts. The potential exists for rainfall totals today through Monday of 4 to 8 inches across the watch area, with locally higher amounts.

Highest pops each day will be across the north with lower pops south...however as mentioned previously, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across all of west central and southwest Florida each day through Monday with localized flooding of urban and low lying poor drainage areas possible each day.

The U/L trough will begin to lift away from the forecast area early next week, with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic building across the Florida peninsula. Tuesday will be a transition day as the boundary layer flow becomes re-established from the east to southeast by mid week. This will shift the timing of daily showers/storms to the mid/late afternoon and evening with the highest pops along the coastal counties as the west coast sea breeze boundary fails to progress very far inland each day...before being pushed back to the coast and offshore during the late afternoon/evening hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) ISOLD SHRA/TSRA moving over coastal counties with impacts at terminals thru 20Z with brief LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs as activity moves further inland. VFR conditions outside of convection with SW-W flow this afternoon and tonight before another round of SHRA/TSRA Sunday.

MARINE

Several weak fronts in the Deep South will keep the persistent SW-W flow over the E Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and pushing onshore around and shortly after sunrise into mid morning each day. Periods of widespread showers/storms will likely occur over the northern waters through Monday. Cautionary level winds will occur on portions of the waters for the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER

Abundant moisture and high rain chances will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy rainfall may accompany the stronger storms as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 86 78 87 / 80 80 40 50 FMY 77 89 77 90 / 30 30 20 40 GIF 76 87 75 89 / 40 70 30 70 SRQ 77 88 77 89 / 60 70 40 50 BKV 73 86 73 88 / 80 80 40 50 SPG 79 86 79 87 / 80 80 50 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.