textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures and humid conditions will create widespread heat index values of 102 to 109 degrees today.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with dangerous lightning will develop each day through the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The upper level ridge has moved south and is currently over our area. This is response to a frontal system that is pushing into the southeast. The result is a light flow over the area today. This light flow typically results in some early afternoon showers along the coast, which we are already seeing in SW Florida, before the storm activity moves inland during the late afternoon and evening. Even though we are still in a drought this lighter flow regime results in slow moving storms which could bring some localized street flooding to areas that end up directly under a stronger storm.

This frontal boundary pushing through the southeast will end up stalling over the state on Sunday. This will shift our upper level flow to the southwest and increase our moisture and keeping PW around 2 inches through Wednesday. This flow regime with that amount of moisture typically brings us morning showers along the coast before showers and storms shift inland during the afternoon and evening hours.

As we head into Thursday and Friday models are showing an upper level trough pushing into Florida. This will help to strengthen the boundary that has been sitting over us since Sunday. Models showing PW above 2.25 and winds picking up to around 15 mph. If that verifies it could bring a wet and breezy end to our work week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 155 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Lighter flow today will keep much of the shower and storm activity along the interior of the state. If we see storms along our coastal sites it should occur during the early afternoon. VFR conditions with winds below 10 knots expected outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 155 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

As we head into our Sunday a frontal boundary will start to push into the state. This will shift winds to the west and increase them to 10 to 15 knots. Moisture will also increase leading to overnight and morning showers in the Gulf that will push onto land in the late morning and early afternoon. This pattern will persist through next Tuesday. By Wednesday an upper level trough will push into the state helping to restrengthen the boundary. This will help to increase our westerly winds to 15 to 20 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A frontal boundary will push into the area on Sunday resulting in moisture increasing across the area. This will bring daily shower chances for the area through next Wednesday with no fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 81 92 81 / 30 10 30 20 FMY 92 78 92 79 / 40 20 60 20 GIF 96 77 95 78 / 50 30 70 20 SRQ 93 80 93 80 / 30 20 40 20 BKV 95 77 94 77 / 30 10 30 40 SPG 92 81 92 81 / 20 20 20 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Levy-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.