textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend.

- Drier air aloft for Saturday will lead to lower rain chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

No changes planned for the evening update. Lingering batch of stratiform rain over eastern Polk County continues to diminish, otherwise dry conditions prevail across W FL. Residual boundaries from earlier convection may spark an additional shower or perhaps a storm through the evening, but activity is expected to continue winding down across the peninsula through the evening. A plume of drier mid level air advecting NE across much of the peninsula on Saturday is likely to limit convective coverage, with PoPs mainly 30% or less for areas outside of parts of the Nature Coast and perhaps parts of interior S FL. While typical summertime heat and humidity continues, heat indices are expected to largely remain below advisory levels, with highs around 90 immediate coastal and lower to mid 90s elsewhere.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Very limited showers and thunderstorms continue to move eastward this afternoon, though some hi-res guidance does show additional storms flaring up over the interior later this evening. The overnight period will be quiet, then onshore flow will bring early showers and storms for the Gulf and coastal areas from around Tampa Bay northward.

Previous discussion modified...Drier air aloft will remain over the area Saturday, which will aid in suppressing convection. Onshore west to southwest flow will push the west coast sea breeze inland with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing mainly over the interior during the afternoon and evening hours.

On Sunday, southwest boundary layer flow ahead of a weak boundary across north Florida will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the northeast Gulf, which will advect onshore portions of the nature coast. Elsewhere, scattered showers/storms will develop over the interior during the afternoon as onshore flow persists. Continued hot with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

Early next week, Monday will be a transition day with overall weak boundary layer flow which will allow the east and west coast sea breeze boundaries to push slowly inland through the day, likely colliding over the interior late in the day which will be the focus for highest pops.

On Tuesday, light southeast boundary layer flow will develop which will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary closer to the coast. Slightly lower deep layer moisture will hold daily pops below climatic normals. Deep layer moisture will begin to recover over the southern forecast area mid week which will increase pops over southwest Florida, with slightly lower pops north and central. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normals.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Mostly VFR expected through the period. Lgt/vrb to W-SW winds overnight increase out of the W-SW late morning, to generally 10 knots or less. Drier air aloft advecting over the peninsula will limit shower/storm chances, with PROB30 groups for potential impacts across terminals in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 West/southwest winds will remain over the waters for the next several days, with no headlines expected. Scattered showers and storms are forecast each day, mainly during the overnight and morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop over coastal areas in the morning, eventually spreading inland for the afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 91 80 90 / 10 20 40 50 FMY 79 94 78 94 / 10 20 10 30 GIF 76 95 75 93 / 20 10 20 60 SRQ 78 92 78 91 / 0 10 20 40 BKV 74 92 74 91 / 10 30 40 50 SPG 81 91 80 89 / 10 20 40 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.