textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing temperatures and dangerous wind chills impact the region tonight.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue through tomorrow morning.

- Warm up expected over the weekend and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 644 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Weak high pressure and a chilly, dry airmass have now created stable conditions across the region. Skies have largely cleared out (except for some areas right at the coast where this still just enough low- level moisture and instability over the waters to produce some cloud streets) and temperatures are beginning to fall. However, with some wind expected to remain through the night, this will induce some low- level mixing to keep temperatures from reaching extremely cold levels like what was seen earlier in the week. Portions of the Nature Coast will touch freezing tonight, but much of the area should remain above. However, patchy frost is still a possibility in areas that are sheltered from the wind. The temp/dewpoint spread will be small enough to support this.

Wind chills are the main weather story overnight. Many spots will feel like the upper 20s early tomorrow morning with winds of 5 to 10 mph lingering through the night. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for most of the area in response.

The main forecast adjustment this evening was to add mention of patchy frost overnight. Again - this is only likely to occur in areas that are sheltered from the wind. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

A cold front continues to move southeastward through the area. Showers associated with the front will continue to move southeast and should be completely moved through the region by this evening. Winds have already begun to pick up with the frontal passage and temperatures behind the front have begun to drop. High pressure will build in from the west, helping to usher in colder air that will briefly settle over Florida. Temperatures will drop back down to the mid 30s for areas away from the coast, with some northern areas dropping to just below freezing. Freeze warning has been issued for inland Levy and Citrus counties, a cold weather advisory has been issued for all other counties, excluding those areas right along the coast.

After a cold start Friday, temperatures will warm into Saturday. However another shot of cool air arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning. Cool starts are expected Sunday through Tuesday with mild afternoon temperatures expected. By mid week, afternoon temperatures will begin to run above normal with many areas reaching back into the 80s. This pattern holds on through the remainder of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Other than some lingering gusty winds for the next six hours and another period of gusty winds tomorrow afternoon, there are no significant aviation concerns with dry, VFR weather prevailing through the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 644 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

The strongest winds have no peaked across the region, with gradually improving marine conditions overnight and into tomorrow. However, some elevated winds will remain for the next couple days as another secondary frontal push arrives over the weekend. This will keep seas elevated in response. Calmer marine conditions return late in the weekend and early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

A line of showers continues to move out of the area as a cold front pushes through. Behind the front dry air filters in, dropping RH values near critical through the weekend. Gusty, NW winds today will subside overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 43 62 53 66 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 42 64 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 37 64 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 44 63 54 67 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 33 62 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 49 64 57 66 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for Inland Citrus- Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.