textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog potential overnight into Sunday morning mainly for northern and central locations.

- Hazardous marine conditions with breezy northerly winds and building seas expected on Sunday and Monday.

- Shower chances mainly north of I-4 Sunday morning into early afternoon, with cooler and drier conditions early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 835 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Made adjustments to the forecast to add areas of fog north of I-4 mainly for coastal areas where sea fog development and advection inland is most favored, along with a few other tweaks to patchy fog extent to delineate southern extent of fog versus mainly low cloud potential generally along a line from coastal Sarasota County northeastward across central Hardee and southern Polk counties. Fog chances for areas further southward across mainly Charlotte and Lee counties may remain limited by current mid/upper clouds overspreading the area, along with the timing of Sunday's frontal passage.

Forecast remains on track otherwise, with a cold front currently pushing across the western panhandle this evening before moving across the Nature Coast late tonight into Sunday morning, WCFL during the afternoon, and SWFL late afternoon through evening. Fog likelihood will diminish with frontal passage as winds shift northwest and moisture is scoured out of the area for areas north of I-4, and within a few hours of sunrise for affected areas southward. PoPs max out around 30-40 percent, mainly across the Nature Coast during the morning, with only a slight chance of a shower southward through the I-4 corridor late morning into early afternoon, and negligible chances southward. Deteriorating marine conditions are expected as N/NW winds increase, while breezy conditions spread southward across areas ashore through the afternoon. Temps ultimately remain tied to exact frontal passage timing, and are generally expected to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s north of I-4 by early afternoon before slowly falling through the remainder of the day, while areas southward where the front's arrival will be later in the day will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Notably cooler and drier conditions likely on Sunday night with temps dropping into the upper 30s north to mid 50s south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Changes are coming after many days of the same weather pattern. Today will once again be warm and dry. However, Sunday a weak cold front will move over Florida bringing a slight chance of showers. Currently, the highest chance for showers will mostly be over the waters and portions of the nature coast. Behind this cold front as high pressure builds back in, cooler and drier conditions will filter in to start the week. Temperatures will only warm slightly by Tuesday as another cold front moves over the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing a better chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Following that front high pressure sets up again over the southeast pushing cold air over Florida by the end of the week. Current forecast shows widespread temperatures in the low to mid 30s Friday morning. Cold weather products will likely be issued as the Friday gets closer. Overall, this upcoming week looks to be quite different compared to this past week in regards to temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Cold front pushing across terminals over the next 12-24 hours will bring period of IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsby potential from later tonight into Sunday afternoon for northern terminals. Hi-res guidance remains insistent on developing marine fog that advects over Tampa Bay area terminals, however latest satellite and obs indicate an absence of said fog development as of yet. Favorable conditions for fog development will persist until FROPA, so have maintained TEMPO IFR/LIFR conditions for TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ for a few hours on either side of sunrise. SWFL terminals not quite as favorably aligned with moisture advection and frontal timing, and expect mainly VFR cigs/vsbys although a period of MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out. Light/variable winds overnight shift/increase to NW 8-12 knots with higher gusts behind the front.

MARINE

Issued at 1226 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Another day of pleasant marine weather today before a cold front approaches the waters early Sunday morning. This front will bring a chance of showers and increased winds. Winds expected to increase to around 20-25kts Sunday afternoon through late Monday, hence a small craft advisory has been issued. There will also be a high risk for rip currents Sunday through Monday afternoon as well. Marine conditions begin to improve Tuesday, but winds expected to increase once again Thursday as another front moves over the area bringing showers and possible storms once again.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

A cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday, bringing a slight chance of showers, mainly to the nature coast. RH values will drop slightly following the front, but should remain above critical levels. Another front moves through Wednesday into Thursday bringing a higher chance of rain throughout the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 65 74 49 68 / 0 20 0 0 FMY 64 81 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 63 78 50 69 / 0 10 0 0 SRQ 65 76 51 71 / 0 10 0 0 BKV 58 73 39 68 / 0 30 0 0 SPG 66 74 54 69 / 0 20 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.