textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Last day of well above average temperatures. A few record high temperatures possible.

- Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible during the next couple of mornings.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and continue through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Today will be the last day of the monotonous pattern we've been stuck in. Record breaking high temperatures are likely as highs once again get into the low 90s. Luckily relief arrives tomorrow as a cold front moves through the area bringing much needed rain. Current timing for Thursday's showers and storms will likely be afternoon into early evening. The front stalls over south FL for a couple days, increasing moisture and rain chances each afternoon through the weekend, especially for south FL. Slightly cooler air will move in following the front. However a major drop is not expected and temperatures will only drop back down close to normal for this time of year.

A stronger cold front is expected to move through Monday, delivering another round of rain and thunderstorms. Even cooler air will filter in behind this front, dropping low temperatures back into the 40s and 50s. Highs following this second front will drop to slightly below average for a couple of days. Overall, hopefully the back to back cold fronts deliver much needed rain to the whole area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Some early morning ground fog could be possible until about mid morning. SE winds shift more onshore late in the afternoon as a sea breeze develops and pushes inland.

MARINE

Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Calm seas today will begin to deteriorate Thursday morning as a cold front approaches the waters and winds increase. Winds could reach close to cautionary levels Thursday afternoon and stay elevated until Friday morning. Stronger winds and lightning could also accompany any storms and showers that move over the waters. Mostly quiet conditions return Friday, though a few showers and storms could develop each afternoon through the weekend. A stronger cold front moves through Monday, increasing winds for the start of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Fire concerns remain minimal as RH values remain above critical and winds remain low. A line of showers and storms moves through Thursday bring much needed rain to the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 70 82 64 / 0 0 60 30 FMY 90 68 86 67 / 0 0 30 30 GIF 91 68 87 64 / 0 0 50 40 SRQ 85 68 82 66 / 0 0 50 30 BKV 90 62 84 58 / 0 0 70 30 SPG 86 71 82 68 / 0 0 60 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.