textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Cold Warning and a Freeze Warning are in effect for much of west central and southwest Florida Saturday night through Sunday morning.

- A Gale Warning is in effect for all coastal waters from this morning through Sunday morning.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect today and tonight for the entire area.

- Extremely dangerous marine conditions and a high risk of strong rip currents and hazardous surf at area beaches will develop today and tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 As has been discussed over the past several days, all of the ingredients are coming together for a significant cold weather event across west central and southwest Florida for the next several days. A large band of cirrus cloudiness is streaming across the Gulf and Florida peninsula associated with an enhancing sub-tropical jet of 140-150 kts...while a strong polar jet is diving south out of central Canada through the Plains and Mississippi Valley which is associated with a strong digging U/L trough over the Tennessee Valley. This is currently inducing cyclogenesis along a baroclinic zone over southern Georgia, with a trailing cold front across the Florida panhandle and eastern Gulf. This area of low pressure will move off the mid Atlantic coast today, and given the extremely strong U/L dynamics and strong baroclinicity, bombogenesis will occur today and tonight off the Carolina coast with the area of low pressure rapidly deepening as it initially moves slowly northeast. The combination of strong Canadian high pressure over the southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley associated with an arctic airmass, and the deepening area of low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will create a very tight pressure gradient over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula today and tonight. The strong flow down the backside of this storm system will also quickly advance the aforementioned cold front across west central and southwest Florida this morning/early afternoon with strong CAA advection developing as Canadian high pressure and the leading portion of the arctic airmass builds over the region. The area of high pressure will hold over the forecast area through the early part of the week.

As far as the sensible weather goes across the forecast area, there will be a chance of showers today ahead of and associated with the cold front as it moves across the region. Timing for the leading edge of the arctic air today will be between 10 AM-Noon across the nature coast...noon to 2 PM in the Tampa Bay area...and 3 to 5 PM across southwest Florida. Temperatures are expected to drop (or at best hold steady) once the boundary clears a given area. Very strong northwest winds will develop across the region behind the cold front with a Gale Warning in effect for the coastal waters and a wind advisory for all of west central and southwest Florida. A few wind gusts to storm force will be possible over the coastal waters...and wind gusts over land of 35 to 50 MPH, with the highest gusts likely near and along the coast.

The very tricky part of the forecast is this evening and overnight. As has been mentioned in previous discussions, the strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to develop over the eastern Gulf today and Saturday night. With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal waters...Gulf effect type light showers. Combined with this, the 70H/50H trough axes will be moving across the region around this evening which will enhance lift and act to squeeze out any available moisture. This could potentially generate a few showers over land even without the aid of the Gulf effect scenario. The backside or northern extent of the cloud shield will see temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become light mixed snow/rain showers or snow showers/flurries. Trajectories would indicate that the clouds should advect locally onshore from Pinellas county north, but will be more parallel to the coast south of Pinellas county keeping precip in that area primarily offshore. Also, the air just above the surface will be extremely cold, with only a shallow layer above freezing near the surface. This will create less time for any snow to melt before reaching the ground, hence why we would likely see mixed rain/snow or snow with temps in the mid to upper 30s. As an example, the 925 MB temp from the Tampa area and north is forecast to be around -4C to -6C...the 85H temp -8 to -11C...and the 50H temp -15C to -20C. To compare how extremely cold this airmass is for our area, the record coldest 85H temp from a TBW sounding on Feb 1 is +3.4C...and records go back to 1948. The 3 coldest 85H temps recorded at TBW are -10.5C on Dec 4, 1999... -7.4C on Jan 14, 1964...and -6.9C on December 24 1989.

This is all to say that the airmass will be capable for the rain to change to a mix of light snow/rain or light snow mainly north of Tampa this evening and overnight if there is enough moisture remaining for shower activity to occur. Guidance provides conflicting solutions. NBM shuts down the chance for precipitation faster this run than previous runs. But given the overall dynamics in place, this appears a bit abrupt. Have maintained a very low pop from the Tampa Bay area north this evening until around midnight. But overall, this portion of the forecast is a low confidence forecast.

As has been mentioned for numerous cycles now, there will be a number of hazards associated with this sequence of events that run from a low probability of occurrence to a very high probability of occurrence. Starting with the highest likelihood of occurrence:

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop today and tonight with a Gale Warning in effect for Saturday through Sunday morning. A few gusts to storm force will be possible.

- A wind advisory is in effect for west central and southwest Florida today for wind gusts of 35 to 45 MPH, with the highest gusts near and along the coast. - A very rare Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for all west central and southwest Florida Saturday night with the exception of Pinellas, coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Sarasota, Coastal Charlotte, and Lee counties. The criteria for an Extreme Cold Warning is for the potential of wind chill values of 10 degrees or less for Levy, Citrus, Sumter, and Hernando counties...and wind chill values of 20 degrees or less for Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, DeSoto, Highlands, Charlotte, and Lee counties. A Freeze Watch is also in effect for much of the region Saturday night into Sunday morning and Freeze Warnings will likely be needed for much of the forecast area both Saturday night and Sunday night. A hard freeze will be possible across the nature coast Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the lower to mid 20s each night. Temperatures across the interior are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s both nights...with lower to mid 30s near the coast and across southwest Florida. Gusty northwest winds will create wind chills Saturday night in the upper single digits to teens across the nature coast. Wind chills are expected to be in the 10 to 20 degree range across the interior, and generally in the 20s elsewhere. The wind is expected to taper off Sunday night, with wind chills generally about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature.

- Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see some record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning across the region...some low max temperature records set on Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents and high surf are expected to develop today and persist through Sunday.

- The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county to run 1 to 2 feet above astronomical normal tide levels today and Saturday night. This is in the low to moderate probability of occurrence.

Skies will clear on Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to climb into the mid to upper 40s across northern and central areas...around 50 to the lower 50s south. Another frigid night Sunday night as mentioned above with most areas away from the coast or extreme southwest Florida in the 20s. Again, record cold temperatures will be possible both Sunday and Sunday night. A Cold Weather Advisory will be needed for Sunday night, but have coordinated with other offices and we do not want to add confusion to the forecast by having both a warning and a watch in effect for multiple nights.

The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but it will still be another cold day across the region with high temperatures from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the nature coast, and around freezing across the interior...with upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. Areas of frost will likely develop late Monday night through the early morning hours away from the coast.

The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear skies each day. A cold front will push across the forecast area late Wednesday and Wednesday night which will bring the next chance of showers to the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 210 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 VFR for initial few hours before VCSH/-RA develops through the morning with a cold front pushing across terminals with MVFR cigs developing and potential brief vis restrictions. Winds increase out of the W/NW late morning through afternoon, up to 20-25 knots with gusts of 30-35 knots by mid to late afternoon, posing crosswind issues depending on runway configurations. Sub-VFR cigs remain through evening for northern terminals as cold air stratocu advect over terminals from the Gulf, with a slight chance of sprinkles or light showers perhaps mixed with a few flurries or light snow showers for the Tampa Bay area terminals late evening into Saturday night, while southern terminals likely lift to VFR during the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 210 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 As mentioned above, a cold front will push across the waters today with winds rapidly increasing to Gale Force as strong Canadian high pressure builds over the waters in the wake of the front. A gale warning is in effect this morning through Sunday morning. A few gusts to storm force will be possible. Very dangerous boating conditions will develop as seas will build as high as 15 to 20 feet. A high risk of rip currents and high surf will develop along area beaches today and will persist through Sunday. Winds will come down a bit on Sunday, but advisory level winds and seas are expected to persist. Winds will subside Sunday night, but it will likely take a longer period of time for the seas to subside.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will will hold over the region today to keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values to remain above critical levels. Much drier air will advect across the region Saturday night and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 59 32 48 34 / 40 20 0 0 FMY 62 32 54 33 / 80 20 0 0 GIF 59 25 49 29 / 30 0 0 0 SRQ 61 37 50 34 / 60 20 0 0 BKV 57 21 47 21 / 20 20 0 0 SPG 60 37 49 40 / 50 20 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy- Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk from 10 AM EST this morning through Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Lee-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Sunday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.