textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Moisture increases late in the week leading to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms.

- Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters expected over the weekend and continuing into next week.

- Cool down with below average temperatures expected Sunday and into most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure continues to ridge through the southeast U.S. keeping an easterly wind flow over the Florida peninsula today. A fine line between drier air over north central Florida and moist air over southern Florida is very apparent on the latest water vapor imagery. The TBW 00Z sounding is also showing this dry air with a PWAT of only 1.20 inches, while the MFL 00Z sounding is showing a PWAT of 1.98 inches. Models are showing an increase in moisture advecting northward through central Florida today with PWAT values ranging between 1.8 - 2.1 inches. This increase in moisture will equate to scattered showers and isolated storms over southwest Florida today. Most areas north of Tampa Bay will remain rain-free today.

By Friday morning, the upper ridging and surface high has moved southeastward and will be located between the Bahamas and Bermuda. We will see increasing moisture over all of west central and southwest Florida with PWAT values between 1.8 - 2.0 inches. This will equate to afternoon scattered showers and isolated storms across the Florida peninsula on Friday. Farther to the north and west, an area of low pressure will be located over the Great Lakes region with an associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mississippi River Valley, then to southeast Texas. The area of low pressure will move northeastward over New England through Saturday morning while the cold front moves through the southeast U.S. and Florida. We can expect scattered to numerous showers and storms late Friday through Saturday evening with frontal passage.

By Saturday evening into Sunday, the cold front will be located over southern Florida, while a strong 1036 MB high pressure center sets up near Virginia. Skies and rain coverage will clear from north to south, but scattered showers and isolated storms will still be possible over southwest Florida through Sunday evening, then low rain chances expected for most of next week. A tight pressure gradient between the remnant cold front over south Florida and the strong high pressure near Virginia will set up over the Florida peninsula producing breezy north through northeast winds for most of next week. These breezy north through northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters with a Small Craft Advisory needed starting Saturday and continuing through most of next week.

Above average temperatures expected today and Friday with daytime highs in the mid 80s to around 90 and overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A big cool down and lower humidity is expected starting Saturday as the cold front pushes south through the Florida peninsula. Well below average temperatures expected Sunday through most of next week with daytime highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Dew points will dip into the 50s north of Tampa Bay, while low to mid 60s expected central and southwest Florida.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. However, there could be a few showers at the southwest Florida sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW Thursday afternoon that could cause some brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Easterly winds will remain less than 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

High pressure over the southeast U.S. will keep east through southeast winds around 10-15 knots over the eastern Gulf waters through Friday. Some showers and isolated storms will also be possible the next couple of days, especially off the southwest coast of Florida. A cold front moves through the waters late Friday into Saturday producing higher rain and storm chances for all of the eastern Gulf waters. A tight pressure gradient sets up over the region in the wake of this front producing north through northeast winds around 20-30 knots and seas up to 12 feet with Small Craft Advisory conditions starting Saturday and continuing for most of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Some showers and isolated storms possible this afternoon over southwest Florida and all of west central and southwest Florida on Friday and Saturday as a cold front pushes through the Florida peninsula. Humidity values will remain above critical levels through the forecast period. The only fire weather concern will be breezy north through northeast winds greater than 15 mph starting Saturday afternoon and continuing into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 75 88 75 / 20 10 40 50 FMY 91 76 90 76 / 60 20 60 50 GIF 91 74 91 74 / 20 10 60 40 SRQ 90 74 88 76 / 40 20 40 50 BKV 91 72 90 71 / 0 10 40 40 SPG 89 76 87 76 / 20 10 40 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.