textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Tornado Watch in effect from Levy to Pasco County through 8 PM.

- Hazardous marine conditions through Tuesday. - High fire weather danger in northern areas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 816 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The line of storms that moved through the majority of the area so far is now tracking though southern portions of the TBW CWA at this time and will exit the region entirely over the next hour or two. While some gusty winds will remain a possibility over the next couple of hours as this activity departs the region, the remainder of the storms should generally remain sub-severe but still could have gusts around 50 mph or so. Cold air advection and breezy northerly winds will then be the focus for the remainder of the night as overnight lows fall to the 30s and 40s across most of the forecast area, which will be around 15-30 degrees cooler than last night. The ongoing forecast remains on track and only minor adjustments to PoPs were made this evening based on recent radar trends.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed across portions of the area ahead of the main line in place across Levy county. A Tornado Watch is in effect for Levy south through Pasco Counties and adjacent coastal waters. While damaging winds still have the highest probability across the area, the tornado threat is great enough for the tor watch. Large hail is also possible with today's storms.

This line will continue to push south through the rest of the afternoon and early evening, with cooler and drier air pushing into the area behind the front overnight. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will drop into the mid 30s north to the mid 40s to lower 50s central and south. While freezing temperatures are not expected, wind chill values will be 3-5 degrees lower, bringing some areas to feels-like below freezing both mornings.

Conditions then gradually warm through the rest of the week, with mid 70s to lower 80s for the second half of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A cold front pushes south of the area tonight with showers and thunderstorms expected at SWFL terminals to start the period but the precip activity will taper off by late evening. Thus, brief flight restrictions will occur for the first few hours of the TAF period but VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period with breezy northerly winds developing in the wake of tonight's cold frontal passage.

MARINE

Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Winds and seas will continue to increase as the cold front moves through the area and strong high pressure builds into the area. A small craft advisory will remain in effect through Tuesday evening. Winds shift to the NE by Wednesday and diminish to 10 to 15 kts, but then remain through the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The cold front will continue to push through the area this evening, with cooler and drier air moving in behind it. This will bring some critical humidities across mainly the Nature Coast for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Winds will be below thresholds though, so no headlines expected at this time. Conditions then moderate for the rest of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 48 62 47 71 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 54 67 50 73 / 60 10 0 10 GIF 47 63 46 71 / 30 0 0 0 SRQ 47 63 47 71 / 30 0 0 0 BKV 40 62 37 71 / 20 0 0 0 SPG 53 64 53 72 / 20 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.