textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the morning hours.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees will occur through the weekend and into next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm activity. The best chances are for KSRQ southward, with slightly lower confidence for Tampa Bay area sites and KLAL. Any storms that do form over the TAF sites could produce gusty winds to 25 knots or so along with brief MVFR cigs/vsbys. Some activity looks to linger past 00Z, but then a quiet overnight period is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Weak high pressure will hold over the region today and Friday with light easterly boundary layer flow. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon with the best chance of storms south of Tampa in region of best available deep layer moisture.

Boundary layer flow will become south to southwest over the weekend which will shift highest pops inland. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will develop over the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon and will spread inland and increase in areal coverage during the mid/late afternoon hours.

Light south to southeast boundary layer flow will occur early next week with highest pops mainly south of the I-4 corridor. Slightly drier air aloft may advect over the region by the middle of next week which would decrease areal coverage of storms a bit, but still scattered afternoon/evening storms expected.

MARINE

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the forecast period with relatively light winds and seas. Main hazard will be scattered showers and storms during the late afternoon/evening hours today and Friday with locally gusty winds and rough seas. Pattern will shift a bit over the weekend with the best chance of storms during the overnight and early morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as abundant low level moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 78 92 80 / 50 40 40 40 FMY 93 76 92 78 / 70 30 60 30 GIF 92 75 94 76 / 50 30 60 20 SRQ 92 76 92 78 / 60 40 50 40 BKV 94 72 94 74 / 30 20 40 30 SPG 92 79 92 80 / 50 40 40 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.