textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Unsettled pattern with previously advertised wetter and relatively cooler conditions will settle into the area today in association with a stalled surface boundary and westerly flow aloft south of E CONUS longwave troughing. Shortwave impulses propagating through the flow aloft aiding instability and overspreading moisture associated with the surface boundary will lead to periods of showers and storms across the region, favoring and spreading ashore coastal locations during the mornings before expanding into and becoming more numerous over the interior in the afternoons.

Given the persistent soggy conditions, a Marginal Risk for potential flooding exists for all of W FL and the peninsula today into mid week, most likely in areas receiving heavier downpours relatively quickly allowing for ponding of water in typical flood prone urban, low lying and poor drainage locations. While some drier air intrusions will be possible north of the boundary that would act to limit overall rain chances, the boundary is expected to remain generally over the northern or central peninsula, favoring at least scattered to numerous showers and storms each day into mid week. Currently, most likely expected rainfall amounts range from 1-3 inches north of I-4, to 2-4 inches south of I-4, with locally higher amounts possible particularly for WC/SWFL and coastal locations.

A shortwave dropping across the Lower MS Valley and rounding the base of the longwave trough across the SE U.S. mid to late week will potentially provide a bit of a push to nudge the boundary into S FL or the FL Straits enabling relatively drier air to filter deeper into the peninsula leading to a decrease in rain chances late week into next weekend. In response, high temps would likely warm a few degrees back into the lower 90s, after being limited mainly to the upper 80s today through mid week due to the anticipated additional cloudiness.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 820 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A stalled out boundary to our north will give us an active weather pattern today with periods of rain and thunderstorms expected over each terminal. I have tried to highlight the best chance to see thunderstorms with TEMPO group at each station.

MARINE

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will linger over the waters through the next few days, with deep moisture leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Winds will generally remain less than headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally gusty winds rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Increased shower and storm chances through the early part of the week as a weak frontal boundary brings additional moisture and instability into the area. Scattered to numerous storms likely each day, with the greatest potential for storms near the coast generally in the morning to early afternoon, with the higher chances inland during the afternoon and evening across the interior. Minimal fire weather concerns expected through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 89 77 89 75 / 70 40 60 30 FMY 89 75 91 75 / 70 50 70 40 GIF 90 74 89 74 / 70 40 60 10 SRQ 89 74 89 74 / 60 40 60 40 BKV 87 71 88 70 / 70 30 60 20 SPG 86 76 88 75 / 70 40 60 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.