textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous beach conditions with dangerous rip currents continue through Sunday evening.

- A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across the Nature Coast into the Tampa Bay area through Sunday morning with a Marginal Risk across the remainder of the region. There is a threat for localized flooding from heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 801 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Rain and storm bands have been moving through the eastern Gulf waters and west central and southwest Florida through the afternoon and evening. Most of these have been relatively fast moving and benign and not causing any concerns, except for a few training showers and storms over western Lee County where some storm totals of 3+ inches have been observed. This trend is expected to continue overnight and into Sunday with a potential for some heavy downpours and localized flooding. Made some slight changes to the POPs for the overnight hours based on latest radar trends and model guidance, otherwise forecast looks good for now.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 801 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of any showers and storms. The broken band of fast moving showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected to continue moving south to north over the area this evening into Sunday. Will cover this with VCSH overnight and then VCTS after 15Z on Sunday. Some brief MVFR to IFR CIGs/VSBYs possible in passing showers and storms. The gusty south-southwest winds we have seen earlier today will subside to less than 10 knots overnight and on Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 801 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible overnight and into Sunday. The good news is that winds are decreasing and seas are gradually abating over the eastern Gulf Waters in the wake of Hurricane Isaias. Mariners should still use caution when on the eastern Gulf waters as seas will remain around 3-6 feet through Sunday morning, especially over the northeastern Gulf waters. Improving conditions will continue late Sunday and into next week as high pressure builds into the region Monday and hold across the Gulf through the week with dry and benign marine conditions expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 85 72 86 / 50 70 0 0 FMY 78 87 75 87 / 40 50 20 10 GIF 76 88 68 87 / 30 50 10 0 SRQ 78 86 73 85 / 50 70 10 0 BKV 76 85 65 86 / 50 70 0 0 SPG 79 85 74 85 / 50 70 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.