textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a high risk of rip currents at area beaches today.

- Hazardous marine conditions this morning will improve through the rest of the day.

- Temperatures will increase Tuesday through the rest of the week, with high temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Slightly cooler air has begun to filter in following the front that moved through late last night/early this morning. Some much needed rain fell across the area yesterday. However, conditions dry out again through the remainder of the week. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly cooler as well with lows dipping into the upper 40s to mid 50s. The slight cool down does not stick around very long as high pressure builds back and temperatures start to rise by Tuesday. High temperatures will reach near record by the end of the week with inland areas possibly getting into the upper 80s. The only other concern through the week will be development of patchy fog, mostly away from the coast, on Thursday and possibly Friday.

The next change in the warm, dry pattern will arrive over the weekend as a strong upper level trough moves into the southeastern US, dragging along a cold front into FL. This next front will bring a slight increase in rain chances Saturday and Sunday. A more substantial cool down is expected following this front with lows expected to get back into the upper 30s(north) and low/mid 40s(south).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

A thick layer of clouds will continue to advect from the north, bringing MVFR ceilings throughout the day. Conditions begin to clear later this evening as drier air filters in. NW winds will shift more ENE overnight into tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 126 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Winds will continue to diminish tonight into tomorrow morning following a frontal boundary that moved through early this morning. Seas will also continue to come down. Conditions will remain quiet through the remainder of the week before another cold front moves through next weekend. Winds likely reach cautionary, if not advisory levels by the beginning of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Slightly breezy northwest winds along and behind the cold front this morning will subside and turn to northeast and east tonight and Tuesday as high pressure builds in. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 57 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 57 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 56 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 55 80 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 49 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 61 80 64 77 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.