textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for dense sea fog Saturday night. - Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms associated with a cold front late Sunday and Sunday night.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday and Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 High pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida today with mostly sunny skies and warm conditions with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The area of high pressure will shift east of Florida Saturday night as a strong southern stream disturbance and associated cold front approaches the western Florida panhandle. Winds will begin to veer to the southeast which may allow sea fog to redevelop over the northern and central coastal waters as warm moist air advects over the relatively cooler shelf waters.

South to southwest winds will be on the increase across the forecast area on Sunday in advance of this potent storm system. A line of showers and thunderstorms (likely QLCS) ahead of a cold front will push across west central and southwest Florida late Sunday and Sunday night. 85H winds of 40 to 50 knots will move over the forecast area along with a somewhat coupled 30H jet, with northern portions of the forecast area in the RRQ of the polar jet and the LFQ of the subtropical jet. This set-up poses the risk for damaging wind gusts along the QLCS. SPC has northern portions of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms associated with this line of storms, with a marginal risk as far south as about Bradenton...which is about the southern delineation of the LFQ of the subtropical jet. Will continue to monitor evolution of this system over the next 24 to 36 hours. Also, the increasing southwest winds over the eastern Gulf ahead of the line of showers/storms may cause minor coastal flooding north of about Hernando beach with water levels increasing to about 2 feet MHHW at the time of high tide Sunday night.

High pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front late Monday and Monday night with slightly drier cooler air advecting over the area...however temperatures will only drop back to near climatic normals for a day. The area of high pressure will shift east of Florida mid week with boundary layer winds veering to the east/southeast which will cause L/L moisture to increase and temperatures to warm back to several degrees above climatic normals, which will persist through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 Primarily VFR conditions are expected the remainder of the night and Saturday at all terminals. Brief patchy fog may create LCL MVFR VSBYs around sunrise mainly at LAL/PGD.

MARINE

Issued at 1237 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 Winds will veer southeast Saturday night ahead of a cold front and this could cause sea fog to redevelop over the waters due to the warm moist air riding over the relatively cooler shelf waters. Winds and seas will build ahead of a cold front on Sunday with SCA conditions possible. A potent storm system will move across the region late Sunday into Monday with a line of showers and possible strong thunderstorms ahead of cold front pushing across the region from northwest to southeast. A few storms may be severe, mainly across the northern and central waters. Gusty northwest winds will develop behind the cold front on Monday as high pressure builds over the region. Winds and seas will gradually subside on Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1237 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region through the weekend which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 62 78 63 / 0 0 40 90 FMY 82 61 81 64 / 0 0 0 70 GIF 81 61 83 63 / 0 0 30 90 SRQ 79 59 77 62 / 0 0 20 90 BKV 81 53 82 56 / 0 0 50 90 SPG 78 63 77 64 / 0 0 40 90

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.