textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold conditions are forecast again tonight into Monday morning.

- Dangerous marine conditions are ongoing with a high risk of strong rip currents and hazardous surf at area beaches through tonight.

DISCUSSION

Canadian high pressure and an associated arctic airmass is currently over the region with a decreasing area of cold air strato-cu over the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient across the region will weaken allowing winds to decrease significantly down tonight with clear skies setting up favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling across west central and southwest Florida after sunset. So, all cold weather hazard products start at 7pm for anyone participating in any outdoor activities this evening.

A freeze warning and cold weather advisory is in effect for all of west central and southwest Florida with the exception of Pinellas county starting at 7pm. Low temperatures again will drop into the lower 20s north...the mid to upper 20s central, and around 30 in the coastal zones south of Tampa. Winds will be relatively light creating wind chills about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature. This will bring wind chills over the interior very close to extreme cold warning criteria as they will be in the 21 to 23 range...with warning criteria being 20 or less.

- A cold weather advisory is in effect for all of west central and southwest Florida tonight. A Freeze Warning is also in effect for all counties with the exception of Pinellas county. Widespread frost will be possible, across inland areas and wind protected coastal areas which is covered in the cold weather products.

- Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals through tonight and may approach record low temperatures tonight/Monday morning.

- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents and high surf are expected to persist through today.

The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but it will still be another cold day across the region with high temperatures from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again will be likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the N Nature Coast, with around freezing temperatures across the interior...and upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. Areas of frost will likely develop late Monday night through the early Tuesday morning.

The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear skies each day. A cold front will push across the forecast area late Wednesday and Wednesday night which will bring the next chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm to the area. Drier cooler air will advect across the region in the wake of the front Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures will drop back down to about 10 degrees below climatic normals, with the potential for freezing temperatures across the nature coast Thursday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected areawide as E Gulf stratocu field has mostly mixed out over land as winds showing a gusty seabreeze component to keep some SCT clouds at the coast. Winds to weaken and veer N after 00Z for SKC but overnight but sub freezing temps, low wind chills and patchy frost are likely tonight into Monday morning.

MARINE

Dangerous marine conditions continue with strong gusty winds and choppy elevated seas so small craft operators should remain in port until conditions improve. The pressure gradient will start to relax tonight with winds and seas slowly subsiding through early week. The next cold front will move through the waters Wednesday night into Thursday with a chance of showers before hazardous marine conditions redevelop behind the front.

FIRE WEATHER

The cold and dry airmass will remain over the region to start the work week with slight warming into mid week. Afternoon RHs will drop below critical levels but winds will remain light. The next cold front will move through the state Wednesday night into Thursday with a chance of showers. Cooler and drier conditions to build back over the region to end the week into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 34 56 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 33 60 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 29 57 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 34 57 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 24 55 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 41 57 47 65 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Tampa Bay waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.