textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for eastern portions of the forecast area today and tomorrow afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

An unsettled pattern expected over the next couple of days as a stationary boundary lingers across central FL, while another frontal boundary begins to push south into northern FL this afternoon. Decent instability coupled with the warm/moist atmosphere will lead to afternoon showers and thunderstorms. As the west coast sea breeze develops, showers and storms will push further east with most coverage today mainly inland and further east. There is a marginal risk (1 of 5) of storms becoming severe this afternoon. Main hazards will be gusty, damaging winds and hail.

Conditions improver temporarily overnight. However, as the second front sags further south into the area Tuesday afternoon, shower and storm coverage will begin to increase. Moisture lingers over the area into Wednesday. However, dry air will filter in by Thursday, reducing rain chances for the remainder of the week.

Temperatures through the week will be near normal through Wednesday due to cloud coverage and rain. However, as conditions dry out Thursday, high temperatures rise above normal once again.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions through the afternoon. Showers and storms are expected late this afternoon into the evening. Though coverage will remain east of TAF sites, the only exception will be LAL, which might be on the edge of development. More widespread rain chances return tomorrow as a front moves south over the area. Below VFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible with any showers or storms.

MARINE

Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Winds will remain below headline criteria through the period. However scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the waters beginning tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. Locally higher winds and rough seas will accompany storms as they move through. Quiet conditions return by Thursday as high pressure settles in.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Fire hazards remain minimal over the next couple of days as ample moisture lingers over the area. Dry air moves in Thursday, dropping RH values through the end of the week into the weekend. Areas north of I4 could drop below critical RH values Friday and Saturday. Winds will remain below 15 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 89 73 87 / 0 60 30 30 FMY 75 93 73 91 / 10 30 30 40 GIF 73 89 71 88 / 10 80 30 60 SRQ 74 90 71 88 / 0 30 20 20 BKV 70 89 66 88 / 10 70 30 30 SPG 77 91 74 89 / 0 40 20 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.