textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return Friday and Saturday.

- A medium chance for fog tonight into Friday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Surface high continues to retreat into the Atlantic with ridging continuing to hold over the peninsula this evening, however moisture return is underway from the S Gulf/NW Caribbean ahead of a slowly approaching frontal boundary stretching across the Deep South and SE U.S. Latest WV satellite and ACARS soundings depict a pocket of drier mid-level air over the area, with meso-analysis also indicating a minimum in PWATs across the northern and central peninsula. Guidance indicates continuing moisture advection overnight will favor increasing odds of development of low-level clouds with the potential for areas of mist and patchy fog across much of the area, while temps continue to moderate with lows in the mid to upper 50s for most locations, and lower 60s along the immediate central and southern coast. Showers associated with the approaching front are likely to hold off until late Friday morning into afternoon, with light southerly winds overnight gradually shifting to S/SW late Friday morning into afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026 Broad troughing remains over the eastern part of the country this afternoon with surface high pressure to the east of Florida keeping south to southwest low-level winds in place across the local area. This has led to an increase in moisture and also warming temperatures, which are several degrees higher compared with yesterday. Temperatures tonight will also be quite a bit milder and there will also be better fog chances due to the increased moisture.

For tomorrow into this weekend, a trough will move over the region, bringing a weak cold front across Florida on Saturday. Rain chances will be on the rise tomorrow afternoon starting up north ahead of the boundary, then they increase for the rest of the forecast area Friday night and linger through Saturday before we clear out Saturday night. As mentioned in the previous discussion, instability remains limited, but would not be surprised if there were a few thunderstorms on Saturday.

No cool-down is forecast behind this boundary and the rest of the weekend and next week will feature high pressure and warm temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions to open the cycle this evening, followed by increasing chances of MVFR/IFR restrictions overnight as low clouds and patchy mist/fog develop under generally light and variable to southerly flow. While 00Z TAFs indicate TEMPO MVFR to IFR conditions for terminals, guidance indicates a period of LIFR conditions is also possible, particularly within the 09-14Z time frame for cigs in response to a pronounced SFC-925mb inversion, which may require adjustments in future cycles. Return to VFR likely late morning into afternoon with winds increasing out of the S/SW ahead of an approaching front, however developing showers over the C FL terminals may produce brief sub-VFR conditions through the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 108 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026 High pressure will remain over the waters through the rest of today and into tonight before a cold front moves over the region Friday into Saturday. Ahead of the front, some patchy sea fog is possible and rain chances will increase north to south starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing into Saturday before coming to an end Saturday night. No headlines expected through the next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 108 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026 A cold front will approach the area late Friday, with increasing rain chances through Saturday. Mostly rain-free conditions will return on Sunday and last through the next week. Overall, no humidity concerns, but patchy fog is expected both tonight and tomorrow night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 62 79 64 76 / 0 50 80 70 FMY 62 84 64 81 / 0 30 50 50 GIF 60 83 64 78 / 10 40 80 80 SRQ 60 79 63 75 / 0 40 80 70 BKV 53 81 57 77 / 0 40 80 70 SPG 64 78 67 76 / 0 50 80 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.