textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions with breezy northerly winds and building seas expected into Monday.

- Cooler and drier conditions expected through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 720 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

No changes needed to the existing forecast. A cold front continues to push southward across SWFL this evening while high pressure building over the Srn/SE U.S. builds into the state in its wake. Cooler drier air will continue advecting into the area on breezy to gusty northerly winds tonight into Monday allowing overnight lows to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s across the Nature Coast, and mid 40s to mid 50s central and south despite lingering mid/upper cloudiness behind the frontal boundary as it stalls over the FL Straits, with feels like temps running a few degrees cooler. Overall cloudiness continues on Monday over the area likely tempering afternoon highs to the 60s for Nature Coast and WCFL locations, while SWFL warms into the 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

A weak line of showers is making its way through the area ahead of a cold front. Cloud coverage and wind speeds will continue to increase north to south as the front continues its trek over the state. Cold, dry air will filter in behind the front with areas north of I4 waking up to the upper 30s low 40s, while south of I4 it will be mostly in the 50s for the lows. Highs tomorrow will be in the 60s- 70s. Temperatures will try to rebound Tuesday, but another front has its eyes set on FLorida and will swoop in Wednesday into Thursday bringing a better chance of rain and possible thunderstorms. More significant cold air will filter in behind this second front, bringing upper 20s (north) to upper 30s (south). This time, the temperatures will not even have a chance to warm, because a third cold front is expected to move through Saturday into Sunday. In other words, this week will be cold with a chance of much needed rain a couple of days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR expected through the period in the wake of a cold front currently over S/SWFL, however extensive mid/upper clouds likely to continue over terminals through the period as the boundary stalls over the FL Straits. High pressure building over the Srn/SE U.S. will lead to generally northerly winds through the period, 8-12 knots with higher gusts overnight into Monday morning before diminishing a bit to around 10 knots or less late morning into afternoon while veering to the N/NE.

MARINE

Issued at 136 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Hazardous marine conditions expected as gusty winds ahead and behind a front impact the seas today into tomorrow. Conditions improve briefly Tuesday and Wednesday, however another front moves in Wednesday night into Thursday, once again ushering in hazardous marine conditions for the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

We will be seeing two separate fronts pushing through the area over the next 5 days. RHs behind today's front will stay above critical levels. Our second front will push through on Wednesday night. This front will bring us some scattered showers and storms mainly Wednesday night. The RH's behind this second front will be right around critical levels. However rainfall the day before and light winds will limit fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 49 68 54 70 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 57 76 59 78 / 0 0 10 10 GIF 50 69 54 72 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 51 70 56 72 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 40 68 45 70 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 54 69 58 71 / 0 0 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.