textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the week. - Below normal rain chances and coverage persist through Monday, then moisture increases from north to south with rain chances back closer to normal by midweek.

UPDATE

Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Hot and mainly dry day across the region with a few isolated thunderstorms around the Tampa Bay area and across the Nature Coast. For the remainder of the night we'll see fair skies with light winds and rather warm temperatures only dipping into the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Monday looks similar to today as the drier air will hold on from around the I-4 corridor southward with the chance for seeing a shower or thunderstorm mainly across the Nature Coast. Temperatures will warm into the 90s with another heat advisory likely being needed. Current forecast looks on track with no changes needed at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites. West to northwest winds at 4 to 7 knots this evening will become light and variable later this evening and overnight, then increase to 7 to 10 knots out of the west by midday Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Morning sounding came in with PW still over 2 inches however high pressure is overhead. This is resulting in subsidence over the area that will prevent a lot of shower activity from forming today. However, some isolated storms will still be around.

By midweek moisture will slowly return from north to south. On Monday most of us will be staying dry except for scattered storms across the Nature Coast. By Tuesday we'll see more storms southward into the central Florida peninsula with the drier air holding on across southwest Florida. By Wednesday we will see PW of 2+ inches across the whole state bring scattered storm chances for everyone from Wednesday through Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Winds will be slowly shifting north and then westerly by Monday. Winds will remain out of the westerly direction through much of next work week. Storm chances through the period will remain low as we are seeing drier through Tuesday before moisture returns.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Drier air will be filtering in today with best storm chances in South Florida. Starting on Sunday the drier air will be sitting over much of the state limiting shower chances through at least Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 95 81 93 / 0 10 20 40 FMY 78 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 77 98 78 96 / 10 10 10 70 SRQ 78 93 79 93 / 0 0 0 20 BKV 76 94 78 94 / 0 10 30 60 SPG 81 93 82 92 / 0 0 10 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.