textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- High risk of dangerous rip currents along area beaches through today.

- Hazardous marine conditions with large choppy seas through today.

- Bands of showers and storms may produce strong gusty winds and periods of heavy rain today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 The center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located about 140 miles south of Panama City Florida and was nearly stationary. a slow west northwestward or westward motion is expected over the next several days.

West central Florida remains on the eastern periphery of the broad circulation of Bertha with deep southerly flow persisting over the forecast area. Narrow bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move over the coastal waters and push locally onshore. The showers/storms are capable of producing wind gusts of around 40 MPH, mainly near and along the coast. The gusty south winds over the waters will continue to produce dangerous rip currents along area beaches today.

As Bertha gradually moves away from the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday, drier air aloft will advect over the Florida peninsula, and the bands of showers/storms will eventually pull west completely away from the coast...but will continue over the coastal waters for a period of time before finally exiting the entire region.

The drier air aloft will hold over the region mid/late week which will act to minimize development of afternoon showers/storms, and increase max temperatures back to several degrees above climatic norms. East/southeast boundary layer flow will occur the remainder of the week...but will flip over the weekend becoming onshore with highest pops shifting to the interior.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 807 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

As TS Bertha slowly start to move away drier air will start to filter in. Best storm chances will be in the morning and early afternoon along the coast of West Central. Winds will remain gusty out of the south with gust topping out around 30 kts for our coastal sites.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Hazardous marine conditions continue with strong gusty winds, scattered showers and isolated storms, and high seas expected for the remainder of the night and Tuesday. Conditions will begin to improve on Wednesday on Wednesday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1213 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Abundant low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. Gusty south winds will create high dispersions across much of the region on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 80 92 80 / 40 10 10 0 FMY 94 77 94 77 / 10 10 20 20 GIF 95 75 96 76 / 30 10 20 10 SRQ 92 78 93 78 / 30 0 10 10 BKV 94 74 95 74 / 40 10 10 0 SPG 90 80 91 80 / 50 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.