textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures and humid conditions will create dangerous heat index values during each of the next few afternoons.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with dangerous lightning will develop each day through the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

In the upper levels, a large blocking ridge will hold near the Southern Plains while a trough gradually deepens along the Eastern Seaboard. This upper level trough will support a series of surface lows northeast of Florida, that will help to keep the surface ridge displaced to the south of the forecast area. As a result, the area will remain locked into mainly westerly flow through the week and into the weekend. With deep moisture available, this westerly flow will support showers and storms developing over the eastern Gulf overnight each day and shifting into the coast at times through the morning hours before convection builds into the interior during the afternoon and evening hours.

Temperatures will remain warm through the next couple of days, topping out in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. With humid conditions in place, heat index values should exceed advisory levels over parts of the Nature Coast this afternoon and perhaps in isolated locations farther south, although cloud cover and thunderstorm activity during the morning and early afternoon may keep many locations below advisory criteria. With a similar setup on Tuesday, another Heat Advisory may be needed.

The persistent onshore flow will increase Wednesday through the end of the week in response to the building surface low north of Florida. As a result, the risk of rip currents are expected to increase through the second half of the week. Otherwise, temperatures should moderate slightly in response to the stronger onshore winds.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Showers and storms will begin to build into Tampa Bay area terminals starting around 10z this morning and continue to expand south through southwest Florida by around 16z. Periods of gusty winds and reduced flight categories are expected as storms move over individual terminals. Rain chances should gradually clear out through the late afternoon and evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

High pressure over the central Gulf will slide south of the waters through the next few days as low pressure develops northeast of Florida. This will favor northwesterly and westerly winds through the week, with showers and storms developing over the coastal waters during the late night hours and shifting onshore through the morning. The pressure gradient will increase on Wednesday, with winds building to Cautionary or Advisory levels at times through the second half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Westerly flow continues through the week, with showers and storms shifting onshore from the Gulf at times through the morning, then scattered to numerous storms building over the interior through the afternoon and evening hours. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 91 81 92 82 / 70 40 40 20 FMY 92 79 91 80 / 30 50 60 10 GIF 93 77 95 79 / 70 20 60 10 SRQ 92 79 92 80 / 50 50 40 20 BKV 93 77 94 78 / 60 30 40 20 SPG 90 80 90 82 / 60 40 40 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy- Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.