textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers expected this morning before diminishing through mid afternoon.

- Freezing temperatures tonight into Monday morning from around I-4 northward, with dangerous feels like temperatures areawide.

- Hazardous marine conditions developing today and continuing into the middle of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 750 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

The cold front will sweep through the region today with some showers ahead of it. Gusty south to southwest winds will develop this morning ahead of the boundary then shift to northwest to north behind it. Gusts to around 40 mph will be possible for a few hours behind the front, then winds will diminish by later this afternoon and evening. With boundary moving through during the day we'll see a wide range of high temperatures. With the front reaching our northern counties during the next few hours highs will only be in the mid 50s, while the southern interior and southwest counties will climb into the middle to upper 70s before the cold dry air rushes in behind the boundary.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 750 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Areas of MVFR ceilings are expected through the day with some visibility restrictions possible in showers. VFR conditions will then prevail for tonight. South to southwest winds will increase to around 15 knots and gusty ahead of the cold front this morning, then shift to northwest to north at 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts this afternoon. Northerly winds will diminish by this evening and subside to 5 to 10 knots later this evening and overnight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

An U/L trough remains over the C/E U.S. this morning with a shortwave disturbance rounding its base along the N Gulf coast. At the surface, a frontal boundary extends across the panhandle and into the Gulf from a Mid-Atlantic low. The boundary will push across the peninsula later this morning into the afternoon as the shortwave swings across the N Gulf/SE U.S., bringing a round of showers this morning into afternoon across the local area with amounts of up to around a half inch across the Nature Coast and diminishing amounts of a few tenths or less southward across the remainder of WC/SWFL. Breezy W/SW winds developing ahead of the front this morning shift to N/NW in its wake and become gusty this afternoon, up to 25-30 mph and locally higher. Daily high temps will be achieved prior to frontal passage before falling through the remainder of the day, generally from the mid 50s to around 70 from the Nature Coast to around I-4, and up to the mid/upper 70s southward. Cold dry air advecting into the state behind the front will lead to temps falling mostly into the 40s/50s by early evening, continuing to fall overnight into the mid/upper 20s across the Nature Coast, lower to mid 30s for non-coastal WC/SWFL, and upper 30s/lower 40s along the immediate coast. Spotty Hard Freeze conditions are possible across the Nature Coast, and dangerous wind chills in the 20s/30s are expected areawide, with the previous Freeze Watch for areas along/north of I-4 having been upgraded to a Freeze Warning, and a Cold Weather Advisory for the entire area given the expected wind chills. After the cold start, Monday afternoon highs remain some 10-15 degrees below normal, only warming into the mid 50s north to mid 60s south.

Conditions gradually improve into mid week, although freezing temps remain possible mainly across the Nature Coast on Tuesday morning, with frost potential extending south into WCFL. Lows warm into the 40s/50s through mid week while afternoon highs warm into the 60s/70s. A frontal system looks to push across the Gulf and peninsula over the latter half of the week bringing another round of rain chances and a brief, slight cool down, before a more pronounced warm up appears possible next weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 325 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Increasing winds and area of seas reaching Small Craft Advisory levels today in the wake of a cold front moving across the waters accompanied by a band showers this morning into afternoon. Advisory conditions are expected to gradually end from north to south tonight into early Monday, but a tight pressure gradient will keep winds around Exercise Caution levels through midweek, with another round of rain chances beyond midweek as another frontal system moves across the waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Showers likely this morning into early afternoon in association with a cold front pushing across the region, followed by gusty northwest to north winds developing across the area behind the boundary ushering in another round of cold dry air. Winds diminish below 15 mph on Monday, but widespread critical relative humidity values are expected. By Tuesday, a moderating trend will get underway with moisture recovering and limiting critical RHs to areas north of I-4, with the trend continuing through remainder of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 68 38 60 40 / 60 0 0 0 FMY 74 39 64 44 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 71 34 60 38 / 50 0 0 0 SRQ 72 39 61 41 / 70 0 0 0 BKV 65 28 59 29 / 70 0 0 0 SPG 69 43 60 45 / 70 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EST this morning through Monday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Tampa Bay waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.