textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue to run well above average through the middle of next week with some record high temperatures possible.

- There is a low to medium chance of showers and a stray storm each afternoon and evening into early next week.

- Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible the next couple of mornings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

In the upper/mid levels, broad ridging will hold across the Florida Peninsula through the weekend, before retreating slightly south early next week as a decaying frontal boundary stalls out just north of the forecast area. At the surface, a strong sub-tropical ridge centered over the western Atlantic will extend west across the Florida Peninsula through the first half of next week. With this ridging at the surface and aloft, broad subsidence will continue to favor temperatures running well above normal, with record high temperatures possible each afternoon in a few spots. Afternoon highs will top out from the mid 80s to around 90 each day, with the warmest temperatures generally expected over the interior away from the coast. Despite the subsidence, enough low level moisture is in place to allow for some isolated to scattered showers and storms this weekend, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

During the second half of next week, a deep trough will swing through the eastern US and finally displace the upper level ridging. This trough will bring a cold front into the Florida Peninsula late Thursday and early Friday, finally allowing temperatures to drop to near normal by the end of the week. Apart from the moderating temperatures, the front will also bring increased rain chances Thursday and Friday as moisture pools along and ahead of the frontal boundary.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Brief IFR CIGs will be possible over the next couple of hours. After that expect VFR conditions through the period. Scattered showers will be possible mainly in the evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 243 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to ridge west across Florida into the coastal waters through the weekend and the first half of next week, with generally east to southeast flow turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Winds will generally remain around 10 knots or less, although isolated showers and storms developing over land areas could push into the coastal waters this weekend during the afternoon and early evening hours, bringing locally higher winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 243 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

No humidity issues through the next few days. Patchy high dispersions will be possible this afternoon, particularly over southwest Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 68 85 66 / 30 20 20 10 FMY 88 67 88 66 / 30 20 20 20 GIF 87 66 87 66 / 30 20 30 20 SRQ 86 66 84 64 / 30 20 10 10 BKV 88 61 86 59 / 20 20 20 10 SPG 86 69 84 68 / 30 20 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.