textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

-Temperatures remain near to below normal through Friday. Warmer on Saturday. Colder air returns late Sunday and Monday.

-Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday night through Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

The cold front that pushed through yesterday morning is now south of Florida. Thanks to the colder air behind it most of us are waking up around 10 degrees colder then yesterday morning. Even though we are waking up cooler temperatures will rise quickly and will actually end up being a few degrees warmer for highs.

The front that is south of the state will start to lift north again over the weekend settling around South Florida. This will result in a quick warming trend with highs back near 80 degrees both Saturday and Sunday. Models are also showing some isolated showers in Southwest Florida Saturday night through Sunday morning.

Another cold front will quickly sweep through the area Sunday night. This will usher in some cooler air to start our next work week. This will keep highs in the 60's on Monday with lows in the 40's for most of us Tuesday and Wednesday morning. However, temperatures will rebound back into the 80's next Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Winds will stay out of the east and southeast for Friday and Saturday around 5 to 10 knots. Another strong cold front will start to head our way and push through late on Sunday. This will shift our winds northerly behind the front and speed will be picking up quickly. By Sunday night we will be looking at 20 to 25 knots across the Gulf. Winds will shift northeast for Monday and Tuesday and slowly start to come down. Wind speeds should be back down to 10 to 15 knots by Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

The cold front that pushed through yesterday will help to keep some drier air over the state on Friday. This drier air will bring critical RHs to areas north of I-4 this afternoon. However winds will stay well below criteria for a Red Flag Warning. The front will lift back north across South Florida during the weekend. This will keep min RH's in the 50's both Saturday and Sunday. Another cold front will sweep through the area on Monday which will bring some cooler temperatures however RH should still remain above critical levels for the early part of next work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 73 56 78 62 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 78 58 81 64 / 0 0 0 30 GIF 74 53 78 60 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 73 54 79 62 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 73 44 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 72 60 77 64 / 0 0 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Levy- Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.