textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 740 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Above normal temps with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees in the afternoons continue through the week. - Onshore flow, with the best shower and storm chances expected for inland areas through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 740 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Remaining convection is focused over interior C FL this evening with some outflow generated convection extending into parts of SWFL closer the coast. Additionally, outflow from C FL convection is pushing back westward across parts of WCFL and parts of the Nature Coast but thus far hasn't supported more than a few additional showers. Increasing stability through the evening with the loss of heating will favor diminishing activity with partly cloudy skies setting in overnight. Existing forecast grids are in reasonable agreement with current conditions therefore no changes planned.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 The surface ridge axis has shifted southward today, with light westerly flow across the region and scattered showers and storms that will continue to slowly more inland through the rest of the afternoon and evening. A similar setup is forecast through the weekend, with onshore flow and abundant moisture in place. Some relatively drier air moves over the region for early next week, helping to decrease PoPs a bit, but the overall onshore pattern continues, so the best rain chances remain over inland areas.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, a frontal boundary moves over north Florida, increasing rain chances across the northern part of the forecast area while the rest of the region stays within west flow. The rest of next week features more of the same.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Terminals generally VFR early this evening, however outflow working westward across W FL may spark another brief round of showers and possibly a storm over the next few hours that could impact categories briefly before diminishing later in the evening. Light flow and VFR overnight then increasing and becoming westerly late Saturday morning into early afternoon, with shower/storm potential generally early through mid afternoon for TPA/PIE/SRQ before shifting inland, while the threat will exist later in the afternoon into early evening for LAL and SWFL terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 High pressure will prevail with light west winds expected through the next several days. The best rain chances will be over land, but there could be a few showers or storms over the waters mainly during the overnight and early morning hours each day. No headlines are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative humidity values remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 20 FMY 76 91 77 91 / 20 40 20 50 GIF 75 93 76 93 / 40 50 30 60 SRQ 78 91 78 91 / 10 20 10 20 BKV 75 93 76 92 / 10 20 10 10 SPG 79 92 80 91 / 10 10 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.