textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures and humid conditions will create widespread heat index values of 102 to 107 degrees during each of the next several days.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with dangerous lightning will develop each day through the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

In the upper levels, a trough of low pressure is positioned off the Carolina coast while a broad ridge block sits over the Southern Plains/Rockies. This pattern will largely hold in place through the week as a series of short waves deepen the longwave trough off the east coast. At the surface, the sub-tropical ridge has been forced south of the area, setting up generally westerly flow that will continue through the week. This pattern generally favors late night and early morning showers and storms developing over the eastern Gulf and shifting into the coast at times through the morning, then scattered to numerous storms building into the interior through the afternoon and early evening, with the highest rain coverage typically inland from the immediate coast. Temperatures will remain hot and humid through the first half of the week, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values of 102-107.

Wednesday through the rest of the week, a developing surface area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will produce a tighter pressure gradient across the Florida Peninsula, increasing the westerly flow. With these breezy onshore winds, the risk of currents is expected to increase at area beaches during the second half of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 840 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Already seeing showers and isolated storms in SW Florida. This will continue throughout the day despite seeing Southwesterly flow. Further north the southwesterly flow should keep storm away for PIE and TPA for today. VFR condition and light winds are expected outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Westerly flow will hold through the week as a surface trough develops northeast of Florida and the ridge of high pressure gets pushed south. This pattern will favor isolated to scattered showers and storms developing over the coastal waters during the late evening and shifting towards the coast through the early morning hours before building into the interior in the afternoon. Wind speeds will remain around 15 knots or less through Tuesday night, then build to around Small Craft Advisory levels Wednesday and Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Westerly flow will hold for the next few days, with a few showers or storms developing over the eastern Gulf and shifting onshore through the morning hours, then scattered to numerous thunderstorms building into the interior through the afternoon and early evening. No humidity concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 93 81 91 81 / 30 20 50 40 FMY 92 79 93 79 / 70 30 30 40 GIF 95 78 94 77 / 60 10 70 30 SRQ 92 80 92 79 / 30 20 40 50 BKV 95 78 93 76 / 20 40 50 20 SPG 92 81 90 81 / 20 20 50 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.