textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing rain chances through midweek.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

UPDATE

Issued at 810 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Quiet morning across the area with southeast low level flow beginning to transport some more moisture northward. The flow will become more southerly during the day and eventually southwest across the Nature Coast as the ridge axis becomes suppressed southward. Daytime heating will combine with the increasing moisture and sea breeze to allow scattered convection this afternoon and evening with highest coverage in our area from the central interior south into inland southwest Florida. Can rule out a shower back closer to the coast, but with the sea breeze moving in from around Tampa Bay southward and the flow along the Nature Coast becoming southwesterly the overall coverage looks low. Convection will wind down this evening with partly cloudy skies overnight. Overall the current forecast looks good with no adjustments needed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 810 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible for a few hours this morning as daytime heating gets underway, then MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. This convection is expected to mainly affect LAL, PGD, FMY, and RSW,as the sea breeze will push inland during the afternoon. East to southeast winds will increase to near 10 knots this morning then become more southeast to south early this afternoon, except shifting to westerly near the coast as the sea breeze moves inland.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a band of moisture extending from the eastern Great Lakes through the western Gulf Coast associated with an approaching cold front, while the subtropical ridge is evident in the drier airmass northeast of Florida. As the front approaches Florida today, southerly low level flow will allow moisture to build across the Florida Peninsula. This will result in significantly higher rain chances than the previous couple of days, with scattered showers and storms forecast over southwest Florida and interior west central Florida. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to run well above normal, with near record high temperatures possible once again this afternoon.

The cold front will push into the Nature Coast Monday morning, and clear the rest of the forecast area by Monday evening, bringing scattered to widespread showers and storms. While the main upper level trough pulls away, a series of shortwaves will stream across Florida through mid to late week, leaving a band of increased moisture and unsettled weather continuing through Thursday. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected each day with 5-day QPF totals ranging from around 1 inch to 4 inches, with the highest totals forecast over the interior and parts of southwest Florida. Temperatures will drop noticeably behind the front, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday ranging from the low 70s to around 80. Otherwise, expect breezy conditions behind the front Tuesday through Thursday as a robust surface ridge builds in north of Florida and keeps a tight pressure gradient in place.

Friday and Saturday, the surface ridge will gradually spread south towards the forecast area, allowing wind speeds to subside and drier air to fill back in and lower rain chances. Temperatures will warm back up to near to slightly above normal.

MARINE

Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

East and southeast winds less than headline criteria will persist today as high pressure continues to ridge into the coastal waters from the Atlantic. Winds will turn to northerly on Monday and increase to exercise caution levels during the afternoon as a cold front pushes into the area. High pressure building in north of the front will keep a tight pressure gradient in place through the rest of the week, with northeast flow increasing to advisory levels Tuesday and remaining elevated through at least Thursday evening. Thunderstorms also increase ahead of the front on Monday, with elevated rain and thunderstorm chances holding through Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Humidity increases today and Monday, with no Red Flag concerns. Thunderstorm chances also increase today and Monday ahead of a cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 87 68 85 66 / 30 10 50 60 FMY 88 68 86 67 / 50 30 60 60 GIF 88 67 86 66 / 60 30 80 70 SRQ 85 68 84 66 / 30 10 50 60 BKV 87 62 85 61 / 20 10 60 70 SPG 87 71 86 68 / 20 10 50 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.