textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased rain chances through Tuesday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the NW Atlantic with a ridge axis extending W/SW across the SE U.S. north of the local area will continue easterly flow across the area, with Atlantic moisture advecting westward across the peninsula supporting isolated to scattered shower chances over W FL this afternoon and evening. Initial development likely during the early to mid afternoon over the interior before spreading/developing westward toward coastal areas by late afternoon into early evening, with some enhancement fostered by interaction between the sea breeze which should remain confined toward immediate coastal areas due to the prevailing easterly flow, and outflow emanating from interior convection as it approaches coastal areas. Although a few storms are possible, most activity expected in the form of showers, with most likely amounts between a tenth and quarter inch, with around a 30-40% chance or so of higher amounts, which would be favored to occur with any locally heavier showers or storms, most likely confined to Srn interior and SWFL locations along with coastal WCFL. Relaxed gradient over the area today will translate to weaker winds and gusts compared to Sunday, however some breeziness with gusts up to around 20 mph or so will be possible during the afternoon, while less cloud cover will favor temps warming up by a few degrees this afternoon, with highs mostly in the mid 80s.

No significant changes to the pattern expected through the week, resulting in similar expectations through the week with continued easterly flow and isolated to perhaps scattered afternoon and evening shower/storm activity potential locally, while temps rise into the mid to upper 80s by mid week, potentially to within a few degrees of record high territory late week into the weekend. Ensemble and global guidance indicate that upper ridging over the area may break down or shift into the Atlantic over the weekend or early next week, however as is typical at this range there remain inconsistencies regarding timing and evolution.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Mainly VFR expected through the cycle, with prevailing easterly flow and occasional gustiness this afternoon along with TEMPO MVFR conditions indicated with late afternoon and early evening SHRA for most terminals as showers advect west across the peninsula, with additional development possible spurred by interaction with the coastal sea breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Ridging north of the waters will maintain easterly winds over the waters through the week, turning onshore locally along the coast in the afternoon with the sea breeze, along with a chance of a late afternoon and evening shower or storm near the coast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Ridging north of the area will maintain easterly flow locally through the week, with immediate coastal areas turning onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Showers and a few storms possible during the afternoon into evening hours before diminishing by late evening. No minimum RH or otherwise significant fire concerns expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 84 67 86 67 / 40 10 40 0 FMY 84 67 87 66 / 50 10 40 0 GIF 84 65 86 65 / 40 0 40 0 SRQ 84 66 85 66 / 40 10 40 0 BKV 86 60 88 61 / 30 0 40 0 SPG 85 70 86 70 / 40 10 40 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.