textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 747 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Very limited rain chances area wide through Monday, with slight chances returning on Tuesday across far southern locations. - Drier and relatively cooler air mass remains across the area into early next week before gradually moderating.

UPDATE

Issued at 747 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

It has been a beautiful day, certainly by late September standards. Conditions are so dry and stable that even clouds struggled to form today. With high pressure remaining in control, and a continental airmass firmly in place, expect a quiet, mild evening to continue. The light winds overnight also favor efficient radiational cooling. Low temps tomorrow morning look to be in the upper 50s to upper 60s, except maybe right at the water where the warm SSTs will moderate temperatures a bit. At this time, the forecast remains on track and there are no changes needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Northwest flow aloft remains over the area this afternoon between ridging over the C U.S. and E Seaboard troughing extending from a closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Surface ridging extends southward across the E U.S. and into the state from strong high pressure centered over the Great Lakes/SE Canada, while the recent frontal boundary is currently over the FL Straits, extending S/SW from an attendant deep surface low associated with the closed low off the Mid-Atlantic. Drier air has filtered into the peninsula with dew points currently in the 50s and 60s representing about a 5 to 10 degree drop compared to 24 hours ago. Surface temps haven't dropped as notably, however given the lower dew points/humidity and light to occasionally moderate northerly breeze, ambient conditions outdoors are rather pleasant for this time of year. PW values sampled this morning registered 1.14 inches, which is right around the 10th percentile climatologically, and mid-level RH around 30 percent associated with notable dryness in the 850-500 mb layer further illustrate the atypically dry air mass in place locally. This all translates to dry conditions today under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with afternoon highs running a few degrees below normal, peaking in the lower 80s north to mostly mid 80s central and south. Overnight/early morning low temps tonight into Sunday morning will be a bit more pronounced departure from normal, generally about 5-10 degrees, dipping into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Nature Coast, the lower to mid 60s across central and southern areas away from the immediate coast, and upper 60s to around 70 along immediate coastal locations.

The pattern will be slow to evolve over the next few days allowing the pleasant and dry conditions to continue locally, followed by the low pressure system gradually filling and lifting away from the Mid- Atlantic/NE U.S. toward mid week allowing high pressure to build over the W Atlantic and the local area mid to late week. Moisture gradually recovers to more typical values heading into mid week after persistent northerly flow through the weekend gradually relaxes on Monday before becoming E/SE on Tue-Wed. Rain chances remain below 10 percent area wide through Monday, and only creep up to 20-30 percent for far southern SWFL locations across parts of Charlotte and Lee counties on Tuesday. PW values finally rebound to 1.5+ inches and a bit closer to normal area wide by Wednesday, with rain chances responding accordingly and isolated to scattered showers/storms returning to the forecast for areas north of I-4, with scattered to numerous coverage southward. High pressure remains over the W Atlantic through week's end favoring generally easterly flow over the peninsula, focusing activity over W FL during the afternoon and evening hours. Scattered to numerous shower/storm coverage will become area wide beyond mid week, while afternoon highs slowly climb from the upper 80s to lower 90s early week to the mainly the lower 90s mid week and beyond.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 747 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail into the early part of next week as a stable high pressure feature remains in control. Moisture gradually rebounds towards the middle of the week, and temperatures will also begin to increase. By late-week, expecting more summer- like weather and thunderstorms to return.

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Gradual improvement of marine conditions continues through the weekend as winds slowly diminish, accompanied by mostly rain-free conditions over the next several days as high pressure remains over the waters. Winds become E to SE by mid week with showers and storms returning, likely favoring coastal areas in the afternoon and evening hours as interior activity spreads westward to the coast and offshore over the waters. Winds may reach cautionary levels beyond mid week, however no headlines are anticipated beforehand.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Generally limited fire concerns are expected through the period, however minimum RH values will drop below 40-50 percent for much of the area for a few hours during the afternoons through Monday, and may approach critical values for a few locations north of I-4. Latest Significant Fire Potential forecast indicates low to moderate potential through the period, however winds are expected to remain below critical threshold which should limit overall potential. Dry air mass currently in place is likely to remain through at least early next week before moisture recovers and rain chances increase from south to north mid week and beyond.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 67 86 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 68 87 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 64 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 67 85 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 62 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 70 85 72 87 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.