textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous beach conditions with dangerous rip currents continue through Sunday evening.

- A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across the Nature Coast into the Tampa Bay area through Sunday morning. A Marginal Risk across the entire forecast area on Sunday, with the risk decreasing from north to south through the day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 11/00Z TBW sounding indicated very deep south to southwest flow from the surface to over 50K FT. This has maintained the Florida peninsula in a plume of tropical moisture that extends from the southeast Gulf, across Florida, to the mid Atlantic coast. A frontal boundary is approaching the eastern Gulf in the wake of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, with a broken band of showers and isolated thunderstorms from just west of Levy county and south over the eastern Gulf. The frontal boundary and associated showers/storms will push slowly east the remainder of tonight and Sunday across west central and southwest Florida. Brief training of cells could produce locally heavy rain mainly near the coast through the morning hours, with a slight chance of excessive rainfall from the Tampa Bay area and north the remainder of the night. There will be a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for west central and southwest Florida on Sunday.

Residual swells left by Isaias over the eastern Gulf will continue to create a high risk of rip currents today along area beaches.

Surface high pressure will build over the Florida peninsula Sunday night and Monday finally pushing out the deep tropical airmass...which will be replaced by much drier air surface and aloft, with no rain expected Monday or Tuesday as dew points drop into the upper 50s north and the 60s central and south.

Boundary layer winds will veer to the east on Wednesday off the Atlantic which will gradually increase low level moisture with the risk of an afternoon shower over the interior, however overall conditions are expected to remain dry across the forecast area.

Late in the week, deep layer moisture will increase from south to north with an increasing chance for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms with highest pops south.

Very warm conditions are expected through the forecast period with high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90, albeit a bit more comfortable due to the lower dew points.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Overall, VFR conditions will persist the remainder of the night at all terminals...with patchy MVFR CIGs. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms currently over the eastern Gulf will slowly push east the remainder of tonight and Sunday with brief showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting terminals with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs. Skies will begin to clear Sunday night.

MARINE

Issued at 1220 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Winds and seas will continue to gradually subside today and Monday, however small craft should still exercise caution due to elevated seas. Surface high pressure will build over the waters early next week with generally east to northeast winds each day below cautionary levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected today as deep tropical moisture will remain across the region. Drier air will advect over west central and southwest Florida on Monday and will hold across the area though mid week, however relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 85 71 86 70 / 80 10 0 0 FMY 88 75 87 69 / 70 10 10 0 GIF 87 68 87 67 / 60 10 0 0 SRQ 86 73 86 70 / 80 10 0 0 BKV 84 65 86 64 / 80 0 0 0 SPG 84 73 85 73 / 80 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.