textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mainly dry with near record high temperatures possible over inland areas Wednesday through Friday.

- Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms return by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

In the upper levels a series of shortwaves will through the trough over the eastern U.S. while upper level ridging remains over the Gulf and Florida. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula into Thursday, then becomes suppressed to the south as a weakening cold front moves into north Florida late in the week. This boundary will stall across north Florida Saturday then lift back north Sunday as a stronger shortwave and associated cold front moves east into the southeast states. This stronger cold front will approach and move across the region Tuesday.

Moisture will remain limited across the region through Thursday, then as the first boundary approaches Friday we'll see an increase across the Nature Coast, then across the entire area over the weekend. However, with the flow generally being out of the southwest the highest rain chances will be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula. Early next week we should see decent rain chances across the entire region as the stronger cold front approaches and moves across the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF forecast period with east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming westerly around 10 knots this afternoon, then shifting back to light east to southeast later this evening and overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Winds will gradually shift during the week becoming southerly Wednesday then southwesterly later in the week. A weak boundary drifting in from the north will increase the chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend, and then a better chance early next week when a stronger front approaches. No headlines are expected at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Relative humidity values will dip to near critical levels over the interior Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, but winds will remain less than 15 mph, so Red Flag conditions are not anticipated. A general southeasterly flow Wednesday will shift to more southerly Thursday, with the sea breeze moving well inland each afternoon shifting winds to southwest to west. A more southwesterly flow will setup later in the week with increasing moisture keeping relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 71 91 73 89 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 70 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 68 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 69 89 70 88 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 62 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 76 90 77 89 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.