textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold conditions with freezing temperatures likely each morning through Thursday.

- Even colder air arrives Saturday night, with widespread hard freeze conditions and low wind chills each morning into early next week.

- Hazardous marine conditions through this afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

In the upper levels, broad low pressure is centered over the southern Hudson Bay early this morning, while the entrance region of a strong jet streak sits over the southeastern US. At the surface, broad high pressure is building into Florida from the northwest, with north winds producing strong cold air advection this morning. This is resulting in widespread freezing conditions north of Tampa Bay and unseasonably low wind chills across the entire forecast area. These breezy winds are also producing a high risk of rip currents at area beaches that will last through the rest of the day.

As the surface ridging settles in, winds will largely diminish today and tonight, setting up a hybrid radiational cooling/cold air advection setup for tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will be lighter over the northern half of the area, where the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning from Polk and interior Hillsborough counties north. South of that area, temperatures are not expected to be cold enough for a widespread freeze, although slightly higher winds will drop wind chills into the 20s and low 30s across the area. As such, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all land zones not in the Freeze Warning. Winds will subside even further on Thursday, resulting in a more traditional radiational cooling setup. A Freeze Watch has been issued for as far south as Highlands and DeSoto counties, but areas outside the watch could still see isolated spots briefly touching freezing. Areas of frost are also expected Thursday morning.

Temperatures will start to rebound by Friday morning, with lows still approaching freezing over the Nature Coast, but they are not currently forecast to produce another widespread freeze event. After a fairly mild afternoon on Friday, the next cold front will push into the area Friday night and Saturday bringing chances for a little rain and increasing winds. With so little time to recover in between fronts, this cold plunge will drop temperatures to even lower extremes by Sunday morning that what is being felt this morning, with morning lows in the low 20s north and hard freezes as far south as Highlands county. The unusually cold temperatures will stick around through early next week as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 213 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours. Breezy north winds will diminish through this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 213 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Strong north winds gusting to near Gale Force at times early this morning will gradually improve through the rest of the day, with the Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to end later this afternoon. High pressure will then take hold north of the waters through the rest of the week, with winds occasionally approaching Small Craft Exercise Caution thresholds at times. The next front will move south through the waters Friday night and Saturday, bringing winds back up to Small Craft Advisory or potentially Gale Force levels through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 213 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

A cooler and much drier airmass has filled into the area, with critically low relative humidity expected across the area each afternoon today through Thursday, then humidity gradually increases Friday and Saturday. However, winds will decrease this morning and will remain below 15 mph through the rest of the week, preventing Red Flag Warnings from being issued.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 56 36 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 62 37 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 57 32 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 57 36 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 55 25 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 57 42 59 45 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Sumter.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto- Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.