textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 845 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue today, mainly in the afternoon. - Drier and slightly cooler air will start to move in Thursday and will hold into early next week. Rain chances will be limited across the area Friday through Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 845 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Morning TBW sounding continues to indicate light southeast flow with plenty of moisture, precipitable water 2.2 inches. Scattered convection continues over the eastern gulf this morning, but with daytime heating we'll begin to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this afternoon and evening. First convection will likely be near the coast early this afternoon as the sea breeze tries to develop, but it does look like the flow will begin to increase out of the northeast keeping the sea breeze close to coast and therefore this convection near the coast. Will see more scattered convection develop and move west across the entire area during the mid to late afternoon and evening. Overall the current forecast looks on track with no adjustments needed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 845 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could cause some MVFR/brief IFR conditions, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail into early tonight. Late tonight into Thursday morning it appears that some areas of MVFR, possibly IFR, ceilings could develop as north to northeast flow begins to increase. Light east to northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots are expected for the TAF forecast period, except gusty erratic winds possible near any convection.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

The forecast for today will largely be more of the same, with light east and northeast flow keeping seasonably warm and humid conditions in place. A few showers may push into the southwest Florida coast from the Gulf during the morning hours, then scattered showers and storms will develop across the area in the afternoon. The pattern begins to change on Thursday as a deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast drags a weak cold front south and southwest through the Florida Peninsula. Increasing northeast winds along and behind the front will advect in a drier and slightly cooler air mass. As a result, rain chances on Thursday will be lower across the area, especially north and along the coast. By Friday, the drier air will have filled in across the entire area, keeping the entire area largely rain free through Monday. Otherwise, conditions should feel noticeably cooler and drier during the weekend, with morning lows in the low to mid 60s over the Nature Coast, and mid 60s to low 70s across the rest of the area. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s, but with dew points mainly in the 60s, humidity should feel a bit more comfortable than it has been recently.

By early next week, surface high pressure will start to settle south into Florida and the western Atlantic as the coastal low departs to the north. Southerly low level flow will gradually bring back moisture, with isolated showers and storms forecast for southwest Florida on Monday and isolated to scattered coverage across the entire forecast area on Tuesday. Temperatures and humidity will also gradually moderate back to near normal through the first half of the week.

MARINE

Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

High pressure north of the waters and low pressure over the southern Gulf will keep east and northeast winds in place today. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will bring locally higher winds and rough seas. Winds will begin to increase tonight and Thursday as a cold front moves southwest through the waters, with Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines likely being needed by Thursday morning, and Small Craft Advisory headlines being needed by Thursday late afternoon or evening. Winds will continue to run near or above advisory or cautionary levels at times through Saturday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

High pressure will hold north of Florida today, with light winds and ample humidity leading to scattered to numerous thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Northeast winds will increase on Thursday as a weak front moves through, bringing drier air and lower rain chances behind the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 75 89 72 / 50 20 20 0 FMY 89 75 90 74 / 60 30 30 10 GIF 90 74 90 72 / 60 10 40 0 SRQ 90 75 91 73 / 60 30 20 10 BKV 91 72 90 69 / 50 20 10 0 SPG 90 76 90 74 / 60 30 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.