textproduct: Tampa Bay Area
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warming trend through the week.
- Cooler temperature return next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 136 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026
Strong ridging will remain over the area for the rest of our work week and into our weekend. North of the state we will see a strong storm system bringing possible ice and snow to the southeast. However, since we will be south of this system through Sunday we will be seeing a gradual up each day. The warmest days will be Friday and Saturday as we will be approaching record high temperatures in the low to mid 80's.
Ridging will finally start to weaken late on Sunday allowing for this strong cold front to finally push through the state Sunday night. Behind it will be much colder air as temperatures start to drop through the afternoon on Monday. We will not see a repeat of last week with widespread freezing across much of the CWA however lows Tuesday morning will be in the 30's north of I-4 and low 40's to the south.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026
VFR conditions expected through the period with winds mainly out of the northeast.
MARINE
Issued at 136 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026
The gusty northeasterly winds have started to come down and that trend will continue through the overnight hours. By Thursday winds will be down to around 10 knots and then 5 to 10 knot on Friday. A front will be stalled north of Florida for the weekend. This will cause our winds to slowly shift for the weekend starting out easterly Saturday morning before shifting completely to the south on Sunday. Winds will also be slowly increasing throughout our weekend returning to 10 to 15 knots by Sunday morning.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 136 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026
RHs continue to rise today and tomorrow as ridging will remain over the area. Min RHs by tomorrow should only drop down into the low 60's. As dewpoint start to rise we will see patchy fog returning to the forecast starting on Friday through the weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 58 77 59 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 78 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 0 GIF 75 56 79 59 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 76 57 78 59 / 0 0 10 0 BKV 75 49 79 52 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 75 61 75 63 / 0 0 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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