textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Saharan dust will keep rain chances lower and daytime highs hotter over the next several days, likely breaking records in several locations. Continue to practice good heat safety when spending time outdoors.

- Scattered thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-4 and across the eastern interior. Strong, gusty winds and frequent lightning are the greatest threats. Remember to seek shelter indoors if storms threaten.

- Winds begin to increase later this week and into the weekend, leading to choppy conditions across the eastern Gulf and adjacent bays and harbors. Know your limits if planning on hitting the water from Thursday onward into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 831 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A fairly active afternoon and early evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere supported near to definitely severe storms across the region. Most of the activity has wined down at this time and this tend should continue into the next few hours. Overnight there is still a chances for light showers to linger, especially across the Nature Coast and Gulf waters. Lows will be a degree or two lower over interior locations, but coastal areas remain in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

On Tuesday, not much will change with temperature climbing up into the 90s with highest rain chances along the I-4 corridor and north early. Then, storms will push east over the interior. No chances were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 736 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain across the area through the next few hours. Most terminals will remain VFR, however, intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions are possible near TPA/PIE/LAL as rain moves across. VFR conditions are anticipated overnight with light winds prevailing. On Tuesday, even though there will still be some drier air over the region, there will still be some chances for showers/storms to develop across Tampa Bay and north. the highest chances seems to be late morning and into the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 80 94 81 94 / 10 30 0 10 FMY 78 97 78 98 / 20 10 10 10 GIF 75 97 76 97 / 20 40 0 10 SRQ 78 94 79 95 / 10 10 0 10 BKV 74 94 75 94 / 10 40 10 10 SPG 80 94 82 94 / 20 20 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.