textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026 TUTT cell east of the Florida peninsula will exit the region over the weekend as an U/L ridge builds over the forecast area which will increase large scale subsidence.

At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to extend across the Florida peninsula with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will continue to create east to southeast boundary layer flow into early next week. The west coast sea breeze boundary will push inland about 20 to 40 miles each afternoon which will be the focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The storms will persist into the evening hours each day ending around midnight...with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy after midnight. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH and small hail.

First pattern change in quite awhile middle of next week as the boundary layer flow is expected to become onshore out of the west to southwest. This will shift highest pops to the interior.

The offshore flow over the next several days will continue to produce above normal daily temperatures across west central and southwest Florida, with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 811 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Some drier air will limit storm chances today with the best chance at our Southwest Florida Airports. Hi-Res models showing some weakening storms could drift into TPA in the early overnight hours. Besides that expect winds generally out of the east except for a seabreeze right along the coast in the afternoon with VFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 1231 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters into early next week with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each day which will push offshore during the afternoon/evening hours causing locally strong winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1231 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold across the forecast area for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 77 92 78 / 10 30 40 40 FMY 94 76 94 76 / 40 30 50 40 GIF 93 75 94 76 / 20 20 40 50 SRQ 92 76 92 76 / 10 20 30 30 BKV 95 72 94 72 / 10 30 50 50 SPG 93 78 93 78 / 10 20 30 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.