textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE

Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Surface high pressure remains over west central and southwest Florida with warm humid conditions persisting. A few showers/thunderstorms were located along the eastern edge of the interior counties, and will dissipate over the next couple of hours. A weak frontal boundary will sink over north Florida tonight and Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms potentially developing mainly across Levy county.

Onshore boundary layer flow will continue through tomorrow with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the coastal waters after midnight and advecting locally onshore, most likely around or shortly after sunrise. Typical westerly flow expected on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon hours, then spreading inland and increasing in areal coverage through the remainder of the day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Surface high pressure extends across the peninsula this afternoon, keeping a westerly boundary layer flow in place across the region with a northwest flow aloft. Scattered showers and storms over the Gulf this morning continue to move slowly east/southeastward and will generally move inland through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary drops southward into north Florida. This will keep the same general rainfall pattern in place, but we'll likely see some extra activity for the northern part of the forecast area closer to the boundary.

We briefly go back to east/southeast flow on Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the northeast, but then this high settles back southward for the end of the week, bringing a return to south/southwest flow. This will lead to more storm activity later in the day for Wednesday, going back to morning showers and storms near the coast for Thursday and Friday. Really nothing abnormal in the forecast, just changes in the winds dictating our thunderstorm pattern and coverage.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Mostly clear skies the remainder of the evening and much of the overnight hours. A few showers/thunderstorms will move onshore late tonight early tomorrow morning with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs, with the best chance vcnty PIE/TPA/SRQ. Scattered thunderstorms will develop vcnty all terminals Monday morning/early afternoon and will spread inland, with storms vcnty LAL a few hours later than the coastal terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 High pressure over the waters will keep a relatively light west flow in place through Tuesday with no headlines expected. The main hazard will continue to be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the late night and morning hours, which will produce locally gusty winds and higher seas. Winds will then switch to easterly starting Wednesday and then back to south/southwest for the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Westerly flow will continue through Tuesday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters moving onshore during the morning hours, then shifting inland and becoming more numerous over the eastern half of the Florida peninsula during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 79 90 77 90 / 30 70 40 80 FMY 78 92 77 92 / 10 40 20 80 GIF 75 93 75 92 / 20 70 30 80 SRQ 79 91 76 91 / 20 50 30 70 BKV 74 91 73 91 / 40 70 40 80 SPG 80 90 78 89 / 30 60 40 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.