textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Scattered to numerous shower and storm coverage through the weekend, becoming numerous to widespread early through mid week next week as a frontal boundary stalls over the area.

- Increased winds and seas over the eastern Gulf waters for the remainder of today and Friday. Small Craft should Exercise Caution.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

High pressure at the surface and aloft continue building over the SE U.S. and W Atlantic this afternoon, while a lingering upper trough axis and associated S/SW flow over the peninsula continues to shear out. Boundary layer and mid level E/SE flow has become more established over the past 24 hours as a result, accompanied by increased moisture advection evident via 24-hr PW value increases of 0.1-0.3 inches per latest meso-analysis and regional RAOB/ACARS soundings, The 2.23 inch PW value sampled in this morning's KTBW sounding sits well above the 90th percentile, and is not too far off from the max historical daily value of 2.34 inches. Given the mean 0-3km flow sampled in the sounding of SE at 16 knots, or regime 7, our typical daily round of scattered to numerous showers and storms is expected across most of WC/SWFL through the remainder of this afternoon and evening. Given the established E/SE flow setup, winds are likely to become slightly elevated during the afternoon hours over the next few days, around 10-15 mph with higher gusts, while remaining around 5-10 mph elsewhere throughout the day/night, with cautionary level winds overspreading the coastal waters. This general setup will persist over the next several days and into the weekend, with higher PoPs expanding into areas further inland and away from the coast as the overall E/SE flow relaxes slightly.

Unsettled and wet conditions look to take hold by early next week as a frontal boundary extending from the NE U.S./Mid-Atlantic will sag into the SE U.S. late weekend into early next week in response to a shortwave moving across the NE U.S., with the surface high over the W Atlantic shifting eastward allowing flow locally to lighten and shift more southerly. Highest PoPs will shift to the interior on Sunday, then increase further across the interior as well as northern areas on Monday within increasing moisture ahead/south of the boundary. An additional shortwave pivots across the NE U.S. on Mon-Tue triggering the development of a frontal wave along the lingering surface boundary that drives the front further south across the SE U.S. and over the local area as an expansive surface high builds in its wake over the E U.S. to our north. The combination of PW values remaining in the 2-2.25 inch range, tightening E/NE gradient flow between the surface high and frontal boundary increasing Atlantic moisture advection across the peninsula, and increased surface convergence along the boundary will favor a period of higher rain chances/PoPs (70-90%) for most of the local area, particularly on Tue-Wed, with residual elevated rain chances/PoPs lingering into Thu-Fri while gradually decreasing. NBM Mean QPF output for the 7-day period ending next Thursday across W FL is 3-5 inches, largely due to next week's expected rainfall, with the caveat of potentially higher amounts locally, particularly for areas along/north of I-4 per the latest guidance. For Tue-Wed, NBM probabilities for 24-hr rain totals of at least one inch are up to 40-60% for most of the area each day. Given much of the area remains assessed as currently experiencing D1-D3 (Moderate-Extreme) drought, rainfall would likely be manageable, particularly given the potential for more stratiform versus convective nature of the precip as insolation and instability may be limited.

By late week, ridging aloft looks to build back W/NW across the area from the W Atlantic while the surface boundary lifts north of the area while weakening, allowing moisture and rain chances to diminish a bit locally. Temps through the period will run near normal through the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, then fall to normal or a few degrees below normal for much of next week owing to increased rain chances and associated cloud cover, in the lower to mid 80s north and central to the upper 80s south.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Developing showers and storms will bring TEMPO MVFR/LCL IFR conditions through the afternoon and evening, already ongoing across SWFL terminals and spreading to WCFL terminals by 19Z or so. Winds remain E/SE through the period, generally 8-12 knots with higher gusts likely through the afternoon and into early evening before diminishing.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

High pressure centered over the E Seaboard/W Atlantic will continue to support enhanced E/SE winds and corresponding seas over the waters leading to cautionary conditions continuing into the weekend before relaxing below headline levels through early next week. A frontal boundary dropping south to over or just north of the waters early next week will lead to winds/seas increasing back to cautionary or potentially advisory levels by mid week. Rain chances continue over the waters for most of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Normal to elevated rain chances expected through the period which should limit overall fire concerns. Winds are expected to generally remain below 15 mph outside of storms, with no minimum RH concerns anticipated along with Low/Moderate Risk SFP forecast through Friday, becoming Low area wide Saturday onward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 76 87 76 88 / 30 60 60 70 FMY 75 89 76 90 / 30 60 30 80 GIF 74 90 75 91 / 20 60 50 70 SRQ 74 88 75 89 / 40 60 50 70 BKV 72 90 72 90 / 40 60 60 70 SPG 76 87 76 88 / 30 60 60 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.