textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier mid week then warming late week.

- Next round of unsettled conditions possible this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 707 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

The latest surface observations suggest that the cold front is just now getting into northern Levy County. Most of the region still remains in the warm and unstable sector ahead of the front. In response, a few low-topped showers have continued across the region. However, most areas have seen no measurable rainfall. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to change.

As the front arrives overnight, cooler and drier air will filter into the region and a couple nicer days will follow. The current forecast is tracking well with current conditions. No changes are needed at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low CIGs are the main impact overnight, associated with a frontal boundary that will move through the region later tonight. For Tampa Bay Area terminals, MVFR CIGs are still favored, but some IFR could sneak in. However, confidence is not currently high enough for explicit inclusion in the TAFs. Have opted to show SCT clouds instead. Across the interior and SWFL, IFR CIGs are more likely. VFR weather returns later in the day on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

A cold front, currently draped across the panhandle will continue to move south over the peninsula today through tomorrow morning. More showers could develop out ahead of the front as it moves through, though these will be more isolated to scattered in nature. Gusty SW winds are also being observed out ahead of the front. As the front moves out of the area tomorrow, high pressure will build back in, swinging the winds more northerly. This will also help filter in cooler, drier air behind the front. High temperatures tomorrow will range from upper 60s to low 80s and will feel cooler as the day goes on as drier air fills in. Thursday morning will be the coolest morning with temperatures getting down to the 40s and 50s. however, by Thursday afternoon, high temperatures will be back in the 70s and 80s.

Just when temperatures begin to moderate, another cold front is expected to move through this weekend. Models are still inconsistent with strength and timing of this next cold front, but current forecast does show a bit more of a cool down compared to this front. In other words, if you do not get any of the rainfall with today's cold front, there's always this weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 1226 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Unfavorable marine conditions continue through the day as a cold front makes its way over the waters tonight into tomorrow morning. Gusty SW/W winds will shift northerly and decrease tomorrow. Quiet conditions last a until the end of the week. However, another cold front is expected to move through over the weekend, increasing marine hazards once again.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Fire weather concerns remain limited through the period. RH values dip Thursday as drier air filters in behind a cold front. However, values should remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 63 73 55 78 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 65 79 57 81 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 61 76 53 78 / 20 0 0 0 SRQ 63 75 53 78 / 20 0 0 0 BKV 53 72 44 77 / 20 0 0 0 SPG 65 73 58 76 / 20 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.