textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall mainly in urban areas with the higher thunderstorm activity each day through much of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure north of Florida will keep a predominant northeast through southeast wind flow over west central and southwest Florida through the week. Abundant moisture with PWAT values between 2.1 - 2.5 inches will support numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall each day this week in the heavier showers and storms, as well as frequent lightning and gusty winds. Temperatures will remain around average topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Heat indices will remain below Advisory criteria reaching 100-104 degrees each afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 814 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Another day of easterly flow with plenty of tropical moisture. This will result in scattered storms across the area from the late afternoon through the evening hours. Low CIGS this morning at LAL will slowly lift over the next few hours. Besides that expect VFR conditions through the period outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Light northeast to southeast wind at 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less will will be in place through the week with a late afternoon sea breeze close to the coast each day. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day, mainly pushing offshore in the late afternoon and evenings and lingering over the waters through the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Northeast through southeast winds will continue through the week, except along the west coast where the sea breeze will set up in the afternoon producing onshore winds. Abundant moisture will remain across the region allowing for numerous to widespread afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 90 77 89 77 / 70 30 70 50 FMY 92 76 92 76 / 60 40 70 30 GIF 92 75 91 75 / 70 20 70 40 SRQ 91 76 90 76 / 70 50 60 40 BKV 91 72 90 72 / 60 20 70 40 SPG 90 77 88 78 / 60 40 60 40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.