textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 827 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Very limited rain chances area wide today, with chances returning on Tuesday across southern locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The pleasant, cool and dry conditions over the past few days will begin to shift over the next couple of days. Dry air still lingers over the area today, keeping rain chances near zero over the area. The only exception will be the possibility of isolated showers or storms over the coastal waters off the Nature thanks to a short wave disturbance over the panhandle, which could provide enough moisture and instability for convection.

By Tuesday, surface high pressure will move northeast of the area shifting the flow more southerly to southeasterly. Gradually moisture will increase over the area from the south, increasing rain chances each day. By the end of the week, scattered to numerous storms are expected areawide. Unfortunately, the pattern shift will also mean temperatures increasing back to normal values in the upper 80s and 90s. Dew points will also be on the rise, meaning the humidity will be back. Basically, the nice taste of fall over the weekend, will soon be replaced by summer like conditions once again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 827 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions through the period with light winds out of the east.

MARINE

Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Marine conditions will be mostly quiet with the exception being any developing showers or storms over the northern coastal waters this afternoon. Storm coverage increases by mid week, with east to southeasterly flow setting up over the area. This will favor late afternoon/early evening storms over the waters. Winds and seas will also increase by mid week, possibly reaching cautionary levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as low level moisture begins to increase over the area over the next couple of days. Shower and storm chances increase by mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 88 73 88 73 / 0 0 20 20 FMY 88 72 87 72 / 0 10 50 50 GIF 90 70 90 72 / 0 0 20 10 SRQ 87 72 87 72 / 0 0 30 50 BKV 87 69 89 69 / 10 10 20 10 SPG 86 75 87 74 / 0 10 30 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.