textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions will continue for the next several days. Heat advisory today from 11 AM to 7 PM for all of west central and southwest Florida. - Below normal rain chances for most of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Very stagnant U/L pattern over the Gulf and Florida peninsula as a strong U/L ridge will dominate sensible weather across the weekend and into the upcoming week. Strong subsidence over the forecast area will continue to create unrelenting heat for the next several days. High temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s, with a few interior location possibly hitting 98 or 99. The combination of the high temperatures and dew points in the mid to upper 70s will create heat indices around 108-110. A heat advisory is in effect for all of west central and southwest Florida on Saturday from 11 AM to 7 PM.

The surface ridge axis will persist today across the central Florida peninsula, with generally light east/southeast flow south of I-4 and weak onshore flow north of I-4. Again, this should allow the afternoon west coast sea breeze boundary to be aligned more north to south, as convection initiates, extending from interior north central Florida to near/over the coastal counties of southwest Florida. This will be the focus for afternoon convection. The one significant difference will be the leading edge of much drier air aloft that will approach south Florida this afternoon associated with a remnant SAL. The mid level moisture convergence along the leading edge of the airmass should enhance convection over southwest Florida this afternoon, and will be the region for highest overall pops. Given dry air aloft and strong insolation, a few strong storms will be possible with wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH, and can't rule out an isolated severe storm.

On Sunday, much drier air aloft will advect over the central/southern forecast area associated with the remnant SAL, while the strong U/L ridge remains firmly over the Florida peninsula. Hot dry conditions will prevail with only a slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm as the dry air aloft and strong subsidence suppress convection. A heat advisory will likely be needed once again for portions of west central and southwest Florida.

The U/L ridge will continue to hold over the Florida peninsula into early next week, however heights will fall just a bit which should allow max temps to drop a degree or two...but overall, they will remain in the lower to mid 90s. Marginal heat advisory conditions are expected. The drier air aloft will remain over central and southern areas. The surface ridge axis will gradually sink south of the forecast area on Sunday and Monday with onshore west winds developing across the entire area which will persist through at least mid week...which will promote any shower/thunderstorm activity to the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon, then pushing inland with a slight increase in areal coverage over the interior during the remainder of the day. Highest pops will be across the north where best available deep layer moisture will be present.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 824 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Dry air will keep storms at bay for West Central Florida. However we will see some higher moisture content in SW Florida which lead to some afternoon and evening storms. Outside of thunderstorms we will see VFR conditions with winds generally below 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with generally light winds and seas. Isolated showers/storms will be possible each day, most like during the overnight and early morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 94 79 94 80 / 20 10 10 0 FMY 95 78 96 78 / 50 10 10 0 GIF 96 77 97 77 / 20 10 10 10 SRQ 94 78 94 78 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 96 75 95 76 / 20 10 10 0 SPG 94 80 93 81 / 20 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.