textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Next chance of showers and storms on Wednesday Night into Thursday with cold front passage.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Thursday morning through Friday morning.

- A significant cooldown is expected late this week with low temps dipping into the 20s and 30s.

UPDATE

Issued at 744 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

It has been a fairly pleasant day across west central and southwest Florida with partly to mostly cloudy skies, rain-free conditions and near average temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Rain-free and mild conditions continue overnight with lows near 50 over the Nature Coast and mid 50s to low 60s for central and southwest Florida. Forecast looks good with no changes needed at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 744 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Some MVFR CIGs around 2 kft will be possible overnight between 06-15Z, otherwise VFR will prevail through the period. Light winds around 4-7 knots expected overnight, then increasing 8-12 knots after 14Z and continuing through the day on Wednesday. Light rain moves into the area late Wednesday night into Thursday, but will only mention -RA at TPA after 15/03Z for this TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 744 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Marine conditions will begin deteriorating late tomorrow as the next cold front moves through the area producing a good chance of showers and a stray storm. Winds increase significantly behind the front, with gusts to near gale force possible on Thursday into Friday. This will produce dangerous seas up to 11 feet offshore and 4 to 8 feet nearshore. Inexperienced mariners should remain in port until conditions improve. Winds and seas improve late Friday into Saturday as high pressure settles into the region. Another front moves through the area on Sunday bringing increasing winds and seas to the area to close out the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A trough axis is centered over the Great Lakes region and stretches south into the Central Plains, becoming increasingly diffuse as weak ridging holds on across the Caribbean and southern Gulf. This is, however, being eroded as a cut-off low propagates eastward across West TX. For now, though, the pattern remains relatively flat and surface high pressure remains in control.

Given the surface ridge axis placement well to the East near Bermuda, a return flow has settled across the FL peninsula. Relatively warmer and more moist air is being advected back across the region. With this lower-level moisture this means more clouds and weak low-level instability. A low-topped, quick-passing shower cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon/evening across the southern interior and SWFL given this setup, but most areas should stay dry today.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The more impactful weather system arrives late tomorrow and into Thursday morning. The cut-off low over TX is absorbed by the flow as the trough over the Great Lakes digs into the SE and becomes positively tilted. This will usher in a strong cold front to the region.

Ahead of the front, showers are forecast to develop across Gulf waters and move onshore. Some of these showers could have some gusty winds - but the overall potential for lightning is low given the weak (-5C) low-level lapse rates. It's just not a very rapidly cooling atmosphere in the layer where the deeper moisture lies.

However, the strong frontal system will drive a steep pressure gradient and thus favor gusty winds. These will begin to increase as the front approaches, but will become stronger once the front passes. Wind gusts over coastal waters could approach gale force (34kts). Friction over land favors wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts.

Colder air then filters in behind the frontal passage, with several chilly days in store. The coldest day in the forecast currently looks to be Friday. Lows will generally be in the 20s and 30s, except right at the water where temperatures will be closer to 40 degrees due to the relatively warmer water.

Gradually, temperatures then begin to warm up through the weekend as high pressure settles east and the low-level flow veers to more of a southerly direction. However, meridional flow stays dominant in the upper-levels, which means another trough and associated frontal boundary will arrive in the area early next week. This will hold temperatures down, and favors some additional cooling early next week. Currently, next Monday is also looking pretty similar temperature-wise to how Friday will be this week. Gradual warming then resumes towards the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 58 69 55 63 / 10 20 80 40 FMY 63 75 60 70 / 20 10 70 70 GIF 58 71 54 62 / 20 20 60 40 SRQ 59 70 57 66 / 10 20 80 60 BKV 50 68 47 61 / 10 20 70 30 SPG 62 70 59 65 / 10 20 80 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.