textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm this evening while hot and humid conditions will continue through the week.

- Moisture increases from north to south with rain chances closer to normal mid to late week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Early morning SHRA/TSRA and BKN clouds around the Tampa Bay area have not developed as guidance indicated, so will remove convection and tempos from coastal sites. W flow continues with afternoon seabreeze producing occasionaly gusty winds pushing TSRA inland thru the afternoon/evening hours.

SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)

Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Mostly clear conditions across the state this morning. Temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. Meanwhile, upper level high pressure remains over the Gulf keeping troughiness and associated boundary north of the peninsula. This set up will allow for showers and storms to develop over the water and move inland during the morning hours, but should become more widespread in the afternoon ans they push into the interior. Also, some of the energy associated with the aforementioned disturbance could circle around the high and slide into interior areas and along the East Coast. This combined with enough available moisture and instability could support a strong storm or two, especially over the interior during the afternoon.

Additionally, this will also support dangerous heat. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in effect through 7PM this evening. Residents and visitors should remain hydrated and take frequent breaks if planning to spend time outdoors. Today will likely be the warmest day for the week. Afternoon temperatures will range from the low 90s near the coast to mid 90s over the interior with increasing cloud coverage. Heat indices will get up to 112 degrees.

On Thursday, similar conditions are anticipated, except some drier may try to mix in south of the I-4. This could limit showers and storm coverage across SWFL.

LONG TERM (FRI-TUE)

Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Going into the weekend, model guidance continues to push multiple disturbance attempt to move into the area while high pressure remains west. There will be battle for which areas get higher moisture. Pockets of drier air advect south of the I-4 corridor, especially during the weekend. Nonetheless, rain chances will continue to increase with onshore flow prevailing. The slightly lower temperatures may keep us just below advisory criteria, but it will still feel very uncomfortable. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s through the rest of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

High pressure remain over the Gulf keeping onshore flow in place. Winds become breezy to around 10-15 knots through the day which will increase wave activity along the beaches. Winds begin to subside Thursday allowing pleasant marine conditions to persist into the weekend, except overnight and early morning showers/storms will be possible through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Area of high pressure continues to dominate keeping very warm and humid conditions in place across fire districts. There will be chances for showers and storms overnight and early morning near the coast, before pushing inland and become more widespread as onshore flow prevails. The main weather concern continues to be the heat.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 92 81 91 79 / 40 20 60 20 FMY 95 79 94 78 / 30 20 50 20 GIF 96 77 95 77 / 60 20 60 20 SRQ 94 79 92 78 / 30 20 60 30 BKV 94 76 94 75 / 40 30 50 20 SPG 93 81 91 80 / 30 20 60 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.