textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible tonight primarily across parts of the Nature Coast. - Showers and storms possible Saturday night into Sunday ahead of a cold front.

UPDATE

Issued at 750 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Quiet evening underway locally under clear skies and light winds as surface high pressure centered over the Gulf extends across the peninsula. Patchy fog development possible late tonight mainly across the Nature Coast with lower likelihood extending into central and southern areas mainly away from the coast. Otherwise expect continued moderating trend with lows mostly in the 40s, although spotty upper 30s possible for localized areas of the Nature Coast and central/southern interior, and upper 40s to mid 50s likely for immediate coastal central/southern locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

The first day of 2026 is shaping up to be a beautiful one after a chilly start. High temperatures today will stay in the upper 60s under clear skies. With high pressure lingering over the area, temperatures will continue to moderate each day, reaching back into the 70s tomorrow. A frontal boundary will move over the area Saturday night into Sunday, bringing an increased chance of rain and the possibility for a few thunderstorms. This next front will not bring a significant cool down, but low temperatures will drop a couple degrees to start the week and humidity will be slightly less. High pressure will build back in Sunday night and clear, quiet conditions will resume through next week. Low temperatures will be in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s/ low to mid 80s each day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Dry VFR expected through the period. Patchy mist/fog possible overnight but expected to remain east of terminals limiting confidence in any impacts low enough to exclude mention. Light winds overnight increase to W/SW 5-10 knots Sat afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 129 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Pleasant marine conditions expected today and tomorrow. A cold front will move over the waters Saturday into Sunday. A line of showers and possible thunderstorms will move over the waters ahead of the front. S/SW winds will increase Saturday ahead of the front before turning more northerly Sunday. However, winds should remain below headline levels and will decrease by Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 129 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Fire concerns remain elevated today with RH below criteria, and isolated areas of elevated winds. Moisture begins to increase tomorrow as a frontal boundary moves towards the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 51 72 59 75 / 0 0 0 30 FMY 47 72 54 75 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 45 72 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 49 72 59 75 / 0 0 0 20 BKV 39 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 40 SPG 57 71 63 75 / 0 0 0 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.