textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Coastal flooding of 2 to 4 ft possible for Levy County with 1 to 3 ft possible southward to Hillsborough County Friday into Saturday.

- A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across Levy and western Citrus County Saturday and Saturday night with a Marginal Risk across the remainder of the region. There is a threat for localized flooding from heavy rainfall.

- Hazardous marine and beach conditions with seas up to 6 to 10 ft and dangerous rip currents today and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Isaias continues to move north northeast across the central gulf with deep tropical moisture continuing to spread north across the region. The combination of daytime heating with the moisture will lead to scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Then later tonight into Saturday we'll see more scattered to numerous convection develop over the eastern gulf move onshore and continue to move across the region through the day. Saturday night into Sunday the remnants of Isaias will continue to move away from the region, but the band of deep moisture into the system will move over the area with scattered to numerous convection persisting.

Sunday night into the middle of next week winds shift to more northerly with much drier air overspreading the region. A few showers will remain possible across southwest Florida Monday, otherwise rain chances will drop to near zero through midweek.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

MVFR/occasional IFR conditions will be possible in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and then later tonight into Saturday. Could also see some areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings later tonight into early Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Breezy south to southeast winds at 12 to 18 knots with higher gusts will continue this afternoon, subside to 5 to 10 knots this evening and overnight, then increase to 10 to 14 knots mid to late Saturday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Breezy winds and rough seas will continue through Saturday with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for all waters and bays/harbors during this time. Winds and seas will gradually subside Saturday night and Sunday, with the winds coming down faster than the seas. High pressure will build over the waters early next week with benign conditions expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

No fire weather hazards are expected through the weekend as deep tropical moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. However, breezy southerly winds will continue Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 78 87 78 85 / 30 60 60 70 FMY 78 89 78 89 / 20 50 50 70 GIF 77 91 76 88 / 30 80 40 80 SRQ 78 88 78 86 / 40 60 60 80 BKV 76 90 75 85 / 20 70 50 70 SPG 78 86 79 84 / 40 60 60 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Pasco- Pinellas.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.