textproduct: Tampa Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers move through the region through later this morning, with continued low thunderstorm chances overall.

- Hazardous to dangerous marine conditions today through Friday morning. Inexperienced mariners should remain in harbor until conditions improve.

- A prolonged and significant cooldown begins today. While Friday morning will be the coldest, another front moving through on Sunday will bring a reinforcing bout of similarly cold temps early next week. Protect sensitive vegetation and exposed outdoor pipes, dress appropriately, and know the signs of hypothermia.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Highly amplified pattern aloft this morning featuring a strong W CONUS ridge that extends into Alaska and deepening E CONUS trough downstream will favor the coldest air of the season as a polar air mass spills south out of Canada and across the central/eastern U.S. and into the FL peninsula. At the surface, a cold front currently approaching the peninsula represents the leading edge of the cold air, advecting southward as the trailing Canadian surface high drops across the Plains into the Deep South. A pre- frontal band of showers, some locally moderate to heavy, spreads from the Nature Coast southward across WCFL and into SWFL. Showers will taper off from north to south across the area later this morning, with lingering SWFL showers clearing by early afternoon while breezy to gusty N/NW winds develop across the area. High pressure then moves across the SE U.S. through Friday, setting the stage for freezing to near-freezing temps for the majority of the area on Friday morning. A series of reinforcing cold fronts move across the area this weekend into early next week in association with shortwave disturbances rotating around the base of the E CONUS trough, precluding any sustained warming trend across the area through mid week, while overall conditions remain dry aside from a chance of showers on Sunday.

Primary feature of note through the forecast period remains hazardous and potentially dangerous cold temps and wind chills. For Friday morning, a Freeze Warning is in effect for all forecast zones except for central and southern coastal locations along with inland portions of Sarasota and Lee counties, where temps are currently expected to remain a few degrees above freezing. All forecast zones are under a Cold Weather Advisory for the same period, as wind chills will drop below 35 degrees across WC/SWFL, and below 25 degrees across the Nature Coast. Not as cold on Saturday morning with freezing temps confined to the Nature Coast, and on Sunday morning when area lows remain above freezing. Colder again on Monday morning with sub-freezing temps likely from the Nature Coast into WC/SWFL, followed by slowly moderating temps over the next few mornings through mid week. High temps generally remain in the 50s and 60s through the period, with a brief respite of lower 70s for central and southern locations on Saturday before the early week cooldown, then warming back into the 70s mid to late week next week as the cool air mass moderates more substantially. Morning lows drop into the 20s and 30s on Friday and again on Monday, and remain mostly in the 30s and 40s otherwise, with some lower 50s south of I-4 on Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Rain shield with embedded heavier showers currently over offshore waters approaching terminals will bring mainly MVFR conditions across terminals with reduced cigs/vsbys through the remainder of tonight into Thursday morning. Associated cold front moves across area during the morning with winds shifting NW'ly and becoming gusty late morning through the afternoon as precip tapers off while cigs linger a bit longer into the afternoon before lifting to VFR, with winds gradually diminishing during the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 350 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Poor marine conditions over the next 24 to 36 hours with advisory level winds and seas developing as gusty N/NW flow overspreads the waters as high pressure builds in the wake of a passing cold front this morning. Conditions improve by the weekend, however, a cold front late in the weekend may be accompanied by another round of hazardous marine conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 350 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

No Red Flag conditions expected through the period, however, cold dry air masses filtering into the state late this week and again early next week will lead to critical minimum RHs, although winds are currently expected to remain below threshold values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TPA 61 36 60 44 / 50 0 0 0 FMY 68 36 65 48 / 70 0 0 0 GIF 61 33 61 43 / 50 0 0 0 SRQ 65 36 61 43 / 50 0 0 0 BKV 58 24 59 32 / 30 0 0 0 SPG 63 41 60 50 / 50 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.