textproduct: Tallahassee

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the weekend, potentially reaching the mid-90s in some inland areas with heat indices ranging from 98-106F.

- Rain chances will gradually increase this weekend, becoming more widespread across the entire region into early next week. Afternoon thunderstorms this weekend may have gusty winds and small hail, in addition to lightning.

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM

(Today through next Friday) Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Well advertised upper low will move westward across the Florida peninsula tonight and into the northcentral Gulf Saturday through Tuesday before weakening and being absorbed in the mean flow as a shortwave moves across the Great Lakes. The upper ridge that has been in place with dry conditions also is moving westward towards the Red River with subsidence losing its grip and the column gradually moistening. Satellite derived PWATs this evening are on the order of 1.3-1.5 inches, a steady increase in moisture since yesterday. On the north side of the upper low and upstream into the Carolinas, PWATs of 1.8-2 inches will advect into the area this weekend on southwesterly flow. As increasing moisture arrives, expect an uptick in rain chances and coverage of showers and storms. Saturday will be more isolated coverage of 20-40% chance while Sunday through Tuesday will be more scattered to numerous at 40-70% especially in and around the seabreeze front and resultant mesoscale boundary collisions through the afternoon and evening hours. A few strong storms are possible this weekend, leading to gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. Beyond Tuesday, rain chances decline as the upper low moves away and ridging from the west builds across the Gulf coast. Otherwise, unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the weekend, potentially reaching the mid-90s in some inland areas with heat indices ranging from 98-106F.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Prevailing VFR conds expected thru the period outside of aftn thunderstorms where PROB30s are maintained until 0Z Sun, sans ECP. Lingering showers are possible after sunset, so have VCSH to acct. Light to VRB winds are fcst.

MARINE

Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Light to gentle easterly flow will prevail through Tuesday with high pressure located to the north. Within the seabreeze zone, moderate onshore flow will develop each afternoon into evening before switching offshore in the overnight hours. Winds increase to moderate throughout the Gulf waters Wednesday ahead of a cold front dropping into the Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms will increase late this weekend into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Moisture returns in earnest beginning today with northeast transport winds and increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day through Monday. Stronger storms have the potential to produce erratic/gusty winds and frequent lightning. Greatest coverage of activity will be in the FL Counties. Minimum afternoon RH will also increase to the mid-40s to mid-50s by Sunday. Dispersion is expected to be fair through the period.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase this weekend into early next week, especially in the FL Counties, then decrease by midweek. While locally heavy rainfall may lead to minor flooding within areas of poor drainage, the probability of flash flooding is low and there are no riverine flooding concerns over the next several days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Tallahassee 94 73 92 72 / 30 20 60 20 Panama City 94 76 91 75 / 20 20 70 20 Dothan 96 72 93 71 / 30 20 40 20 Albany 95 72 93 71 / 20 20 30 10 Valdosta 93 71 92 70 / 40 20 40 10 Cross City 91 71 91 71 / 40 10 50 10 Apalachicola 88 75 87 75 / 20 30 50 30

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.