textproduct: Tallahassee

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 554 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Beneficial rain is on the way Thursday and Friday. Chances of 1.0" or more of rain are highest (60% to 80%) north and west of a line from Panama City, FL to Tifton, GA and taper off to less than 20% in the Southeast Florida Big Bend. Additional rain is in the forecast over the weekend.

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather Thursday across southeastern Alabama, most of southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Damaging winds are the primary concern, although some hail and a tornado cannot be entirely ruled out.

- Patchy fog is possible this morning and again Thursday morning. Be sure to give plenty of space between you and the car in front of you if you encounter any.

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM

(Today and Tuesday) Issued at 211 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

High pressure controls our forecast today as temperatures warm into the upper 80s to near 90 across the region. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday morning and slows to a crawl over our area Thursday afternoon and evening. Showers and storms, a few strong to severe, are forecast as the front enters the area. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms across the Florida Panhandle and much of the Big Bend, southeastern Alabama, and much of southwestern Georgia for Thursday. Damaging winds are the primary concern, although some hail and a tornado cannot be entirely ruled out.

The front eventually stalls somewhere along the I-10 corridor, keeping rain chances elevated Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. This rain will be incredibly beneficial as we attempt to claw our way out of the ongoing drought. Chances for over 1.0" of rain over the course of Thursday and Friday has remained steady at 60% to 80% from a line along and northwest from Panama City, FL to Tifton, GA; lesser rainfall totals are forecast south and east of that line.

Additional waves of rain are forecast to traverse along the stalled front Saturday and Sunday, bringing even more rain to the region. By the time the weekend is over, widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 3" are forecast across most of our area outside of the Florida Big Bend, where rainfall totals will struggle to reach 1.0". While organized severe weather is not anticipated over the weekend, a stronger storm or two is possible thanks to the proximity of the stalled front and 0-6km shear of 40+ knots.

The stalled front finally gets pushed south of our area on Monday thanks to an H5 trough moving through the eastern third of the country. This will lead to another chance for rain Monday before drier weather attempts to return by the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Areas of fog early this morning will dissipate quickly after sunrise with VFR prevailing by mid-morning. South to southwest winds will strengthen later in the morning with gusts of 15-20 knots likely through the afternoon hours. For early Thursday morning, showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread into the area from northwest to southeast ahead of a cold front and affect ABY and DHN near the end of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 211 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Light to gentle breezes are forecast today. Light to moderate southwesterly breezes arrive Thursday ahead of another cold front that'll stall over the northeastern Gulf. This keeps off and one showers and storms in the forecast Thursday through the weekend. Light to moderate southwesterly winds continue over the weekend as much of our coastal waters is forecast to remain on the warm side of the stalled front. Seas will generally run between 1 to 2 feet through Wednesday before becoming 1 to 3 feet later this week into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Southerly winds bring moisture back into the area as MinRH is forecast to be above 45 percent by Thursday. Increasing southerly transport winds will lead to high dispersions Wednesday and Thursday. Breezy and borderline hot conditions are forecast Wednesday afternoon with southerly winds at 15 to 20 mph and temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the region and could lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Our next opportunity for a wetting rain arrives Thursday and Friday along a cold front that stalls over the region, which helps keep rain chances in the forecast through the weekend.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 211 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

More beneficial rain is on the way later this week into the weekend. A cold front nears the area Thursday before eventually stalling over us Thursday night into Friday. This gives us the potential for a few waves of rain starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend. The first arrives with the cold front in southeastern Alabama and portions of southwest Georgia. Another is forecast to travel west to east along the front on Friday. By the time all is said and done Friday night, a solid 1.0" to 2.0" is possible across southeastern Alabama, and portions of SW Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Additional waves of rain are forecast Saturday and Sunday with widespread rainfall totals over much of our area generally between 1" to 3" with lesser totals forecast for the southeastern Florida Big Bend.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Tallahassee 87 67 88 68 / 0 10 50 10 Panama City 82 72 82 69 / 10 10 40 10 Dothan 87 69 82 62 / 0 30 90 20 Albany 88 68 82 62 / 0 30 90 10 Valdosta 89 66 88 66 / 0 0 50 10 Cross City 88 65 87 71 / 0 10 0 0 Apalachicola 80 72 83 71 / 0 10 10 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ009>018-027-326-426.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ155>158.

AL...None. GM...None.