textproduct: Tallahassee

UPDATE

Issued at 909 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Forecast is on track. No updates needed this morning.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Stationary boundary is draped from north central Florida westward through our Gulf waters. Surface high pressure located in the northeast US with ridging riding down the Appalachians will induce northeast surface winds across the Tri-State region. This will usher in drier air through the northern half of our CWA, hold the front at bay from moving much at all, and pin the seabreeze this afternoon closer to the coast. With higher PWATs located south of I10 and the seabreeze pinned, have better rain chances (30-50%) relegated in coastal sections, southeast Big Bend and extreme southern Georgia if convection moves that far northward. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are on tap, northeast winds of 10-15 mph and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight, lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A broad upper level trough will prevail over the eastern half of the country through much of the upcoming week. At the surface, an axis of surface high pressure will extend down the eastern portion of the Appalachians through much of the upcoming week and give much of the forecast area broad northeasterly flow. Light south and southwesterly flow develops late in the week and temperatures will warm. The upcoming week will generally be dry given the lack of appreciable moisture for shower/storm development.

The broad frontal system that lingered over the forecast area through the weekend will continue to slowly push south on Labor Day as the axis of the surface high noses south into the forecast area. Any rain showers will likely be confined well to our south with only portions of the southeast Big Bend possibly seeing rain on Monday as these locations reside closer to the old frontal boundary.

Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to see northeasterly flow across the region but as the next shortwave in the broad upper level trough approaches, we will begin to see light southerly return flow ahead of another cold front. This will begin to increase rain chances across the area on Wednesday, but given the lack of any appreciable low-level moisture rain chances are likely to remain quite low.

For Thursday and into the upcoming weekend, the cold front will likely begin to stall but dry mid-level air in the upper level trough should supress much of the shower and storm potential and help temperatures warm back up into the low 90s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

MVFR/IFR cigs haven't quite transpired as originally thought. Though, patchy stratus can be seen on latest satellite imagery. There remains a chance for stratus to affect TLH/ABY/VLD through the next several hours with VLD having the highest probs and kept a tempo group for this through 14Z while removed mention at the other sites. Otherwise, VFR is expected today and tonight as northeast winds bring drier air into the region. Some gusts this afternoon at ABY/VLD with speeds 14-17 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A frontal boundary over the nearshore waters will continue to settle further south into the Gulf into Tuesday. Northeasterly winds will be light through today but will likely increase Sunday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens. This could lead to periods of cautionary or near-advisory conditions, especially in waters west of Apalachicola. The frontal boundary moves east Wednesday with winds decreasing and becoming generally westerly later in the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A drying trend takes hold over the next few days with afternoon and evening showers and thunder storms confined to the I-75 corridor of FL and the FL Big Bend. Moderate East-Northeast transport winds will be in place thru Tuesday with mixing heights away from the coast topping out around 5,000 feet. This promotes pockets of high afternoon dispersion across inland regions today and Monday.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

As the frontal system slides south the higher rainfall totals will move south with it. Some rain is possible across the southeast Big Bend this afternoon but rainfall totals will be light and no hydrological concerns are anticipated.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Tallahassee 86 69 85 66 / 20 0 10 0 Panama City 88 71 89 69 / 20 10 20 10 Dothan 85 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 86 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 67 85 64 / 30 10 10 0 Cross City 88 71 88 68 / 60 20 30 10 Apalachicola 85 73 86 72 / 50 20 30 20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.