textproduct: Tallahassee

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

A shortwave moving eastward across the southeast this morning is helping generate some light showers across the area. While a shallow layer of cooler air is still present at the surface, moisture continues to stream overhead in the mid to upper levels. This setup makes the forecast for today a bit trickier than usual since some of the guidance isn't picking up on the ongoing rain showers very well, and the subsequent impacts on cloud cover and/or moistening of the low levels as the rain falls through them would have on temperatures. For now, the forecast has a fairly noticeable gradient in high temperatures from north to south essentially designating where the shallow cooler air at the surface may hang on vs areas where it may get mixed out. Lows tonight may also be more interesting depending on how much cloud cover sticks around and how much moistening of that shallow surface layer occurs.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Sunday) Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Ridging dominates until late Saturday night when a cold front looks to approach the region from the northwest. As the front approaches, the surface flow turns southeasterly and moisture advects across the region brining dew points into the 60s. The pressure gradient also tightens leading to gusty winds ahead of frontal passage. The shortwave associated with this cold front looks to quickly lift northeast taking upper-level forcing with it. Model consensus currently has the shortwave at its closest during the morning hours on Sunday. This will mean limited instability for widespread storms, but with an LLJ around 30-40 kts across SE Alabama and SW Georgia before the shortwave lifts off, there is the possibility for a few strong, sub-severe storms in these areas.

As the upper-level forcing departs throughout Sunday afternoon, along with mostly cloudy to overcast skies we'll see a transition to more stratiform rain particularly for areas east of the Apalachicola River. There still remains a chance for a thunderstorm or two, but chances decrease the deeper we get into the afternoon and evening hours.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

As the front moves across the region Sunday night into Monday we'll see temps and dew points drop slightly. This won't be a cold front in the true sense of the word, it's more of a density front. That is, it'll move cooler, drier, denser air across the region. The next shortwave on Tuesday doesn't come nearly as close as it moves across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. It'll be in the process of occluding, thus forcing will be lacking across our region to see anything other than scattered showers.

A more significant cold front looks to move across the region just beyond the long term, possibly bringing a return to cold temps. But, before that happens, enjoy highs in the 70s with lows generally in the 50s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions along with light rain showers will continue for a couple more hours this morning before improving to VFR. VFR conditions are expected for most of the day with another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings possible across the eastern portions of the area overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

East and northeasterly flow will prevail through Friday with occasional periods of cautionary conditions through Friday as a weak system moves through the southeast US and tightens the pressure gradient. Winds shift to being out of the south- southeast on Saturday and then northwesterly behind the cold front on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

A warming and moistening pattern is underway across the region. Low dispersions are possible for the next couple of days due to fairly low mixing heights and light transport winds. A few showers will be possible at times over the next few days. Other than low dispersions, there are no fire weather concerns.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Rainfall amounts will generally be around an inch or less through the next week. There are currently no flooding concerns.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Tallahassee 65 53 73 61 / 20 10 10 10 Panama City 66 55 72 62 / 30 10 10 30 Dothan 61 50 70 59 / 20 10 10 20 Albany 59 48 69 59 / 20 10 0 10 Valdosta 65 52 73 61 / 20 0 10 10 Cross City 71 54 78 61 / 20 10 10 0 Apalachicola 64 57 68 61 / 40 20 10 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.