textproduct: Tallahassee

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 800 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

- Much needed rain is on the way Wednesday. The most likely rainfall totals are forecast to be between 0.25" to 0.75" with a medium (30- 50%) chance of rainfall exceeding 1.0" across the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama.

- Hazardous marine conditions develop behind a cold front later Wednesday into Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of our Gulf waters Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

- There is a low to medium (20 to 40%) chance of Cold Weather Advisories being needed for parts of Florida counties Thursday and/or Friday mornings.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

The forecast is still tracking well, so no updates are needed this evening.

SHORT TERM

(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 102 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

A fairly large temperature gradient is in the forecast tonight with parts of the southeast Florida Big Bend dipping into the 30s while the western Florida Panhandle settles in the lower 50s for lows tonight. Some patchy fog is forecast to develop tonight as low-level moisture slowly returns to the region. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon are forecast to warm into the upper 50s to middle 60s. However, confidence is a bit lower than usual as it will largely depend on how early the clouds and rain arrives during the day. Speaking of rain, it moves from northwest to southeast across the region throughout the day Wednesday. Rainfall totals are generally expected to be between 0.25" to 0.75", although a few lucky places may pick up more than 1.0" by the time all is said and done. Instability will be lacking for this event, so the chances for thunderstorms are very low and mostly confined to the Emerald Coast.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 102 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 Cooler weather filters in from the northwest Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will generally fall into the 30s by sunrise. Combine that with a breezy northwesterly wind at 10 to 15 mph and wind chills will be back in the middle to upper 20s Thursday morning. A chilly day is in store Thursday afternoon with highs struggling to get out of the lower to middle 50s. Yet another cold night is in store Thursday night into Friday morning with widespread upper 20s to near 30, although a few of the traditionally colder locations will make a run at the lower 20s if the wind can go calm enough overnight.

Beyond Friday... In the words of Jack Skellington, "What's this!? What's this!?"

A weekend without any rain, snow, or impactful cold!

It may have taken until the 6th weekend of 2026, but we are finally(!) forecasting a weekend to be free of rain, snow, or impactful cold. Temperatures will generally run in the upper 60s to lower 70s for highs and mid to upper 30s for lows. And there is no chance for precipitation.

That is thanks to our area being on the western side of a deep H5 trough across the eastern third of the country. Strong northwesterly flow aloft keeps us dry Friday through the weekend. A few ensemble members develops a shortwave within the mean H5 northwesterly flow and gives us a few rain showers Monday, but that chance is very low (less than 10%), so have left it out of the official forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

A cold front will be crossing the terminals late Wednesday. In advance of the front, moisture will increase, and a fairly wide areas of rain and showers will impact the terminals for several hours apiece on Wednesday. Multiple cloud layers will increase late this evening and overnight. For the last few hours before the frontal passage, IFR cigs are likely, and showers will be heavy enough to reduce visibility.

MARINE

Issued at 102 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Winds and seas begin to build on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are likely in advance of the front. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect Wednesday night through Thursday as northwesterly winds pick up along and behind the front. A lull in the winds Thursday night will be followed by an increase again Friday afternoon into the evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 102 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

A line of showers is forecast to move from northwest to southeast across the region Wednesday as a cold front swings through. There is a medium to high chance (60 to 90%) of a wetting rain over our fire districts, with the lower chances across the southeast Florida Big Bend and the higher chances across southeastern Alabama. Drier and cooler air returns Thursday with breezy northwesterly transport winds of 15 to 20 mph. MinRH values for Thursday are forecast to drop to between 30 to 40 percent with good to excellent dispersions. High dispersions are forecast Friday as the breezy transport winds turn more westerly throughout the day.

Patchy fog is possible across portions of the Florida Big Bend into south-central Georgia Wednesday morning.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 102 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

There are no flooding concerns the next several days.

A cold front Wednesday brings some much needed rain to the region. The most likely rainfall totals are forecast to be between 0.25" and 0.75", with a medium (30-50%) chance of rainfall exceeding 1.0" across the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Tallahassee 65 45 62 38 / 0 10 90 40 Panama City 65 55 63 38 / 0 40 90 20 Dothan 67 50 61 33 / 0 70 100 10 Albany 64 48 59 35 / 0 50 90 30 Valdosta 65 43 63 38 / 0 10 80 60 Cross City 64 35 67 40 / 0 0 30 80 Apalachicola 61 52 63 38 / 0 10 80 50

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to midnight CST Thursday night for GMZ751-752-770-772.