textproduct: Tallahassee

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Seasonable weather is expected for the next week. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected each day, plus morning thunderstorms over the Gulf and along the immediate coast. Near normal temperatures will support minor to moderate heat-related impacts.

SHORT TERM

(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A vertically stacked low is currently spinning near Atlanta metro, with weak low-mid level westerly flow on its southern flank across our service area. The low is associated with some colder air aloft, which is aiding in the uncapped air mass across the region and the convection that was already underway early this afternoon. Meanwhile, satellite- derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery shows values over our region ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches, with the drier values in that range over Lower Alabama today. These values are in the 10th to 30th percentile ranges for early August, according to the SPC sounding climatology. In other words, the air mass is drier than normal, and we are even seeing inland surface dewpoints occasionally dipping into the less uncomfortable upper 60s.

Moving into tonight, the low center to our north will weaken and fill, nearly dissipating on Wednesday. Our 1000-700 mb flow will respond by going from westerly to a sluggish southerly direction. The character of the air mass on Wednesday will change little from today, in terms of instability, slightly cooler air aloft, and available moisture. So Wednesday will feature scattered convection... nothing excessively strong or heavy, with the seabreeze front providing the most effective focus.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Very typical and seasonable weather is expected from Thursday through Tuesday, with no larger-scale hazardous weather.

On Thursday, the strong subtropical high out near Bermuda will expand west as a dull ridge into Georgia and persist through Friday. Our 1000-700 mb layer flow will respond with a southeast turn. This will tap into the richer and deeper moisture that has been sidelined down over Central Florida, bringing a return of that moisture across our forecast area on Thursday, perhaps taking until Friday to reach our westernmost counties in the Panhandle and SE Alabama. As the moisture returns, PW values will quickly rebound back into the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range, which is near to slightly moister than normal for early August.

The dull ridge axis to our north will settle south across the service area this weekend, arriving over the Gulf early next week. Albeit weak, our low-level flow will become more southerly this weekend, then southwesterly next Monday and Tuesday. The air mass will remain seasonably moist and unstable throughout, so a fairly typical scattered coverage and daily rhythm of convection will prevail each day. The changing flow direction will mainly affect which locations are most prone to convection, based on how the seabreeze locally aligns with and moves in the general background wind.

In summary, the long term period will be almost as normal as it gets for early August. The impact of near normal temperatures and humidity will be minor to moderate Heat Risk. There will also be the daily threat of shorter- lived pulse thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Primarily VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals outside of a few tsra this afternoon which will primarily impact the eastern terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Low pressure over Georgia will weaken tonight and then dissipate on Wednesday. The dull western edge of an Atlantic subtropical ridge will nose in across Georgia and far north Florida from Thursday through Saturday, bringing a turn to gentle and moderate easterly and southeasterly breezes. The high pressure ridge will settle south across the Gulf waters on Sunday, causing winds to slowly clock around southerly.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The main concern for the next week will be erratic outflow winds in the vicinity of our typical summertime afternoon thunderstorms. A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will prevail. Near normal temperatures are expected, leading to minor to moderate Heat Risk each day.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The only hydrologic issue for the next week will consist of brief torrential downpours beneath heavier thunderstorms, producing short-lived nuisance runoff issues. No flash flooding and no river flooding are expected for the next 7 days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Tallahassee 72 91 72 91 / 20 30 10 40 Panama City 76 90 75 90 / 20 30 10 20 Dothan 72 91 72 92 / 20 30 20 10 Albany 72 92 72 92 / 30 30 20 20 Valdosta 71 93 72 93 / 30 30 20 60 Cross City 73 90 72 91 / 30 40 30 70 Apalachicola 77 87 76 87 / 20 30 10 20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ114.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.