textproduct: Tallahassee

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Isolated flash flooding is possible today. The overall risk appears lower compared to the last couple days. If you encounter flooded roads, turn around don't drown.

- There is a High Risk of dangerous rip currents at all area beaches through this weekend. Heed the advice of beach flags and local officials.

SHORT TERM

(Today and this evening) Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Over the course of today and tonight, rainfall will ease back to more normal summer levels.

For today, rainfall is still expected to be fairly robust in spots, though we will not see the kind of extreme values that have been observed in recent days. On one hand, the air mass will still be very moist today, with Precipitable Water (PW) values in the 2.0 to 2.3 inch range. In addition, Friday evening's 500 mb upper air plot showed a trough over the Arklatex region which will move east this afternoon, adding some larger-scale lift and bringing modest 500 mb height falls to the region. On the other hand, the frontal-like surface trough of recent days will lose definition today and dissipate altogether by Sunday. That surface trough has been a critical part of focusing heavy rain over the last 2 days. So all in all, today will still exceed a normal summer day in terms of convective coverage and rainfall amounts. Without an absence of more extreme rain totals today, flash flooding will be isolated at most and not enough to justify a new Flood Watch. WPC is carrying a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall through today.

LONG TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

By this evening, that 500 mb trough will be weakening and starting to exit off to the east. The climatological subtropical ridge axis across the Bahamas and South Florida will sharpen and nose in more strongly across the eastern Gulf. Some of the less moist mid- level air over the Gulf will start to spread north across the region. From Sunday onward, PW values will vary in the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range through next Friday, which the SPC sounding climatology for TLH reveals to be in the 50th to 80th percentile range for this week of the year. Those values will still readily support deep moist convection, but building heights during the first half of the week and the lack of larger-scale lift or triggers means we will rely on more typical summer foci, namely the PM seabreeze and AM landbreeze.

A modest increase in PoPs is expected Wednesday and Thursday, as the tail end of a low-amplitude longwave trough brushes by to our north.

Throughout the week, the subtropical ridge axis will be to our south, meaning southwest-westerly steering flow will prevail.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Isolated to scattered -TSRA commenced to developed this aftn just east of KECP and west of KTLH. Expect additional development to occur through this evening, resulting in a TEMPO/PROB30 mention of TSRA and associated MVFR VIS at all TAF sites. Will of course amend as necessary. Precipitation will gradually diminish a few hours after sunset, and northwest winds will become light/variable overnight. Model solutions hint at MVFR CIGS overnight at several of the terminals, thus added a SCT mentioned where appropriate. Slightly breezy west-northwest winds aoa 8-10 kts were noted at most of the terminals this aftn.

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Through Sunday, an Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will expand and sharpen across the Florida Peninsula and across the eastern Gulf. It will then remain in place for all of next week. To its north, gentle southwest to west breezes will prevail offshore, while the nearshore waters will also experience the seabreeze enhancement each afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A very moist air mass will remain in place today, supporting a day of numerous showers and thunderstorms, including pockets of heavy rain. Storms will also come with gusty winds and dangerous lightning. Thunderstorm coverage on Sunday will decrease to more normal summertime coverage, with that level of coverage continuing into the new work week. Otherwise, the air mass will be seasonably hot, muggy and unstable for the next 7 days. Light southwest to westerly breezes will prevail, with the coastal seabreeze enhancement each afternoon

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Isolated flash flooding is possible today. Even so, the overall threat will be lower today and during the last couple of days. WPC is carrying a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall today for our Alabama, Georgia, and Florida Panhandle counties.

The air mass today will still be very moist, and there is still some larger-scale jet stream lift in play. However, the stalled front over Alabama and Georgia in recent days is losing definition and dissipating. This reduced focus will lessen the prospect of getting extreme rainfall amounts, since it makes it harder to get training or backbuilding thunderstorms. Still, the very moist air mass will support torrential instantaneous rainfall rates, and recent rains have lowered flash flood guidance values in spots. The 00z HREF shows neighborhood probabilities of exceeding flash flood guidance in the 5-20 percent range for most of the region... lowest along the Panhandle coast.

From Sunday onward through the week ahead, flash flooding is generally not expected. A typical scattering of summertime afternoon storms will support short-lived nuisance runoff issues beneath the core of stronger storms.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Tallahassee 73 90 74 93 / 20 70 10 20 Panama City 77 87 79 89 / 20 20 0 10 Dothan 72 87 74 91 / 20 50 10 20 Albany 71 89 74 91 / 20 40 10 30 Valdosta 72 90 74 93 / 40 30 10 10 Cross City 75 93 76 94 / 20 50 0 0 Apalachicola 78 88 80 89 / 10 20 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.