textproduct: Tallahassee

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1251 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

- Hazardous marine conditions for small craft will continue through this morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola, while small craft should exercise caution east of Apalachicola including Apalachee Bay.

- A high risk of rip currents will impact all local beaches today. Residents and visitors should heed the beach flags.

- Warm and dry conditions are expected Christmas week with temperatures running consistently 5-10 degrees above normal. In late December, normal lows are around 40-45 degrees, and normal highs are in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM & LONG TERM

(Today through Christmas Day) Issued at 1251 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

A cold front is approaching the I-65 corridor early this morning. Along the front, a few showers are ongoing, but not expected to persist. Cooler, drier air will gradually filter in behind the front. Highs will be in the upper 50s across the Wiregrass to the lower 70s in the southeast Big Bend. High pressure moves nearly directly overhead tonight, leading to nearly ideal radiational cooling. Thus, went closer to MOS guidance for low with low to mid 30s for nearly all areas with upper 30s to near 40 along the beaches. There is a medium (40-50%) chance of a light freeze in the Chattahoochee and Flint Valleys.

Beyond Friday, zonal flow prevails aloft through the weekend before ridging builds in from the west. A shortwave well to our north of Sunday may push a weak backdoor front toward our area, but this will provide little change in our sensible weather outside of an uptick in winds and slightly cooler temperatures on Monday. Highs over the weekend will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. There's one more shot at radiational cooling Saturday night, mainly east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers with lows ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s east to the lower to mid 40s west. Lows moderate further Sunday night with widespread 40s.

As anomalously strong ridging builds over the central and eastern US, there is high confidence that we remain warm and dry all the way through at least Christmas. From Tuesday onward, daytime highs will reach the mid 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

A cold front is making steady southeast progress overnight. A broad area of IFR restrictions is expected before the frontal passage occurs from west to east. Conditions should quickly improve to MVFR with the passage, and then VFR about 2 to 3 hours after passage. Current timing estimates frontal passage at ECP/DHN around 08/09z ABY around 10z, TLH around 11z, and VLD around 12z. In addition to ceilings restrictions a brief shower and gusts to 20 or 25 knots is possible with the frontal passage this morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1251 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will subside this afternoon into tonight. Small Craft Advisories continue for the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola through the morning. Seas will also subside into tonight over our waters. Winds become light out of the east to southeast Saturday as high pressure moves overhead. A weak backdoor front moves in from the northeast on Sunday with moderate to fresh easterly breezes in its wake Sunday night into Monday. Winds may approach advisory-level over portions of the northeastern Gulf waters on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1251 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

A cold front will move through the area through early afternoon. Transport winds become northwesterly to northerly at 10-20 mph behind the front today. Dispersions area wide will be good this afternoon with min RH values in the upper 30s. High pressure slides overhead tonight into Saturday, leading to light east to southeast transport winds and low mixing heights. Thus, Saturday's dispersions will be poor. Min RH values will be lower Saturday as well, dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s. A weak backdoor front moves into the area Sunday with winds increasing slightly out of the northeast, slightly higher dispersions, and an uptick in RH.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1251 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Rainfall is not expected for the next 7 days. Most areas saw less than half an inch of rain from Thursday's rain, though isolated pockets got up to an inch. Some improvement in drought occurred across the area in the latest drought monitor, though severe to extreme drought persists for much of the forecast area. For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Tallahassee 65 36 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 41 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 59 35 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 61 33 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 67 35 66 38 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 72 37 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 65 43 62 47 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ751-752-770- 772.