textproduct: Tallahassee

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Severe to exceptional drought will continue or worsen with little to no rainfall and a warming trend over the next week.

- Haze and smoke may present issues for those with sensitive respiratory conditions over the next day or so due to prescribed burns and wildfires. Late afternoon and evening hours may feature the poorest air quality.

- Warm and fair weather will make beaches attractive. Be aware of what beach flags are flying and what they mean with respect to rip currents if visiting.

SHORT TERM

(This Evening through Monday night) Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Dry weather will prevail through at least Monday as ridging continues to build eastward along the Gulf Coast. A weak front moves into the area late Monday afternoon into Monday night, but no rain is to be found through Monday night. The main concerns for the next couple days will be nightly fog, daytime haze, and elevated fire concerns for Sunday. The daily afternoon sea breeze will move inland, moistening up the atmosphere for some fog development tonight and again Sunday night. The highest confidence in fog tonight is mostly across the Florida counties with lower confidence farther north, and similarly for Sunday night. If fog develops near to prescribed burns and wildfires, the combination of fog and smoke could significantly reduce visibility in localized spots, creating the potential for "super fog."

During the daytime hours, smoke from prescribed burns and wildfires should be able to mix out, giving us hazy sunshine through Monday. Once again, have included haze in our grids as a proxy for the mixed out smoke. However, during the evenings and mornings, the smoke may settle, causing reductions in air quality. Those who are sensitive to smoke and pollutants, such as those with chronic respiratory illnesses, should use caution if outdoors.

Otherwise, it will be quite warm during the day with highs in the mid 80s for most everyone. A few pockets of upper 80s are possible in inland spots. This won't be record-breaking heat as records are in the low 90s. The low humidity will make for comfortable nights with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

The front stalls across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, and we may be able to squeeze out a couple showers, mostly over our Georgia and Big Bend counties. However, rain chances remain around 30% or less. Ridging builds in again for the rest of the week with the front washing out.

Tuesday's temperatures may be a bit tricky with a bit of a cold air wedge and some cooler air coming from the Atlantic. We'll have a good bit of cloud cover around too through the day. NBM has continued to trend lower for Tuesday for our Georgia and Big Bend counties, and I expect that trend to continue. We just got into range of the NAM, which normally performs better in these situations, and it is significantly cooler than NBM right now, by about 10-15 degrees. For now, our forecast highs range from near 70 in our northeastern most counties to the low 80s in the FL and AL counties. As more hi-res guidance comes in, these highs may need to be lowered further, especially east of a Dothan-Tallahassee-Cross City line.

Beyond Tuesday, temperatures will warm up through Friday with ridging returning with more widespread mid to upper 80s by Friday and lows in the 50s. Another front moves through Friday night, yet again with little moisture to work with.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions generally prevail with light to moderate west to southwesterly breezes. Ongoing fires across the region may lead to lower visibility, especially at KTLH where several fires continue southwest of the TAF site. Fog development is possible Sunday AM at TLH, ECP, and DHN, where confidence was high enough to insert a TEMPO for MVFR vsbys, but may be lower if combined with smoke.

MARINE

Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Gentle to moderate westerly breezes will prevail through Monday across the waters before a cold front moves through Monday night. In the wake of the front, winds turn northerly then easterly on Tuesday, generally remaining gentle to moderate through Thursday. Little impact to mariners is expected through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Transport winds will increase out of the west-southwest on Sunday to 10-20 mph. Combined with high mixing heights of 4-5 kft, dispersions will be high across inland areas Sunday. RH values will remain above critical levels, but still bottom out in the 30s during the afternoon, especially away from the coast. The daily afternoon sea breeze will push inland, mainly enhancing the southwesterly winds as it passes through. Similar conditions prevail for Monday. By Monday night, a cold front will pass through the area, with transport winds turning northerly overnight, then northeasterly to easterly around 10-20 mph during the day Tuesday. The exception will be the coastal Panhandle zones where winds may stay westerly thanks to the afternoon sea breeze. Dispersions will be good Tuesday given mixing heights will be lower. A couple isolated showers and storms are also possible Tuesday afternoon in the Suwannee Valley.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Little to no rain is forecast for the next 7 days. Drought remains our only hydrologic concern. Severe to exceptional drought continues for most of the area. For more information on local drought impacts, visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Tallahassee 83 56 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 75 61 77 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 82 56 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 83 54 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 54 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 80 53 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 74 60 75 62 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.