textproduct: Tallahassee

UPDATE

Issued at 837 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The previous forecast appears to be on track. No major changes were made.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Afternoon convection is currently firing up over southeast Georgia. Development could extend as far west as I-75 in south Georgia through sunset. Downdraft CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg exists in this part of Georgia. Given that aspect and the generally breezy southerly flow, storms will be capable of thunderstorm outflow wind gusts to near 50 mph until after sunset.

Otherwise, the muggy air mass will support some fog development tonight. The gusty wind fields could help keep some of it stirred into a low stratus, as opposed to fog. Nonetheless, northeast Gulf water temperatures are still in the 67-71 degree range, so areas of sea fog are possible near the coast late tonight and Thursday morning.

A similarly warm or hot afternoon as today is expected on Thursday, with the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor most likely to reach or exceed 90 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Little sensible change is expected in the weather compared with tonight and Thursday. A very strong 500 mb high will be centered over the Atlantic east of the Georgia Bight. 500 mb heights in excess of 5900 meters will extend west across the service area, keeping conditions capped with temperatures running well above normal. Friday should overall be the hottest day of the week, with 90+ degree reading fairly common over inland areas.

Southerly breezes will continue, with strong afternoon seabreezes at the coast.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A highly amplified upper trough will pass across the central U.S. this weekend, as a potent southern stream trough phases with a northern stream upper trough. This will push sharp and strong spring cold front across the region on Sunday night and Monday.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will precede the front, and SPC has already placed our region in their Day 5 outlook. Indeed, ensemble data shows weak convective instability in the pre-frontal environment, with somewhat strong bulk shear of about 40-50 knots. With the incoming upper trough, there will be upper height falls and some larger scale lift at work too.

Behind the front, a significant change in the air mass will take place. We will go from our current warm/hot and muggy air mass to a cool and dry air mass. The coldest nights will be next Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with widespread low temps in the 40s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 156 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Patches of low clouds and fog will be a concern through mid-morning with VFR returning areawide after mid-morning. Gusty southerly winds are expected to develop with gusts of 20-30 knots from mid- morning until near sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The strong afternoon seabreeze that is being observed in Bay County supports issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the new St. Andrews Bay marine zone, valid until sunset. SCAs for Saint Andrews Bay will likely be needed again each afternoon through at least Saturday, thanks to the seabreeze superimposing on the already fresh background southerly winds.

From CWF synopsis... Strong high pressure east of Florida and low pressure over Texas will support moderate to occasionally fresh southerly breezes through Saturday, with strong nearshore afternoon seabreezes. The muggy air mass will support patches of sea fog. A sharp late season cold front will cross the waters on Sunday night and Monday, followed by moderate to fresh northerly breezes on Monday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Highlights through Saturday will feature near record high afternoon temperatures over inland locations, along with high afternoon dispersion values due to strong southerly wind gusts. Onshore breezes will keep temperatures and dispersion a bit more moderate near the coast. Despite a muggy air mass, the afternoon heat will bring Min RH over inland locations into the 35-50 percent range. A fairly strong cold front is expected to pass the districts on Sunday night and Monday, complete with the next wetting rain.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The next round of widespread wetting rains will come with the passage of a cold front, from Sunday into Monday night. Storm- total rainfall is currently forecast to be in the 1 to 2.5 inch range. In response, modest rises are likely on area rivers next week, but rivers will stay well within their banks. This much rain will only bring potential for local runoff issues in poor drainage areas. Therefore, flooding is unlikely for the next 7 days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Tallahassee 85 66 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 81 68 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 66 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 89 66 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 91 68 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 90 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 67 76 68 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GMZ735.