textproduct: Sacramento

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering mountain shower and thunderstorm chances into this evening, with drying conditions midweek.

- Hot and dry conditions are expected to develop end of the week with widespread Minor HeatRisk Thursday and Friday.

- Widespread Moderate HeatRisk Saturday into Tuesday, with triple digit and daily record highs possible.

..Wednesday through next Tuesday

Wednesday is expected to be dry with near normal high temperatures as the cool low pressure system exits and eastern Pacific high pressure ridging shifts into the region. This is the beginning of an extended period of dry and warm weather. Conditions continue to warm as we move into weekend into early next week. Minor HeatRisk is expected across the Valley Wednesday, becoming more widespread and extending into the foothills and mountains by the end of the week. Some areas of Moderate HeatRisk are expected in the Valley by Saturday, expanding to include the foothills by Sunday. The NBM currently indicates a 60-90% chance of high temperatures greater than 90 degrees in the Valley Saturday, 75-95% on Sunday.

Minimum RH values trend lower through the week as well, dropping into the 20s and teens by the weekend. This will coincide with a period of breezy north winds that develops on Saturday which could lead to elevated fire weather conditions in the central Sacramento Valley. Forecast gusts are between 15 and 25 mph.

Looking into early next week, models (including the NBM 5.0) continue to show at the potential for triple digit temperatures as ridging amplifies over the region. Some daily high temperature records are in jeopardy. The NBM continues to indicate a 50 to 70% chance of 100 or greater in the northern San Joaquin Valley and portions of the central Sacramento Valley next Monday and Tuesday. There may be some Delta breeze to give influenced areas a slight break for overnight lows.

AVIATION

Scattered low clouds and ceilings will lead to MVFR conditions this morning in the Valley through roughly 20Z today. VFR conditions through 09Z Wednesday, before scattered low clouds redevelop in the Valley leading to MVFR conditions until around 21Z Wednesday. Low chance (10-15%) of isolated mountain showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon along the Sierra crest. Otherwise, surface winds will generally be 12 kts or less.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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