textproduct: Sacramento

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering showers today over the Sierra and southern Cascades and adjacent foothills

- Mainly dry this weekend, with some mountain showers Sunday over Shasta County.

- Gradual warming trend this weekend and into early next week, but highs likely remain below average for this time of the year

- There is the potential for monsoonal moisture mid-next week, but confidence in details remains low at this point

DISCUSSION

Lingering shower activity continues to taper off to the east this afternoon as dry air mass filter over the area. However, some additional mountain showers are expected in Shasta County late this afternoon and evening as the next shortwave trough embedded within a broad upper- level trough centered over NW Oregon/SW Washington swing northeastward today. Elsewhere, generally mostly cloudy skies, with a gradual clearing skies into the weekend. Winds will continue to ease and become weaker across the area into Saturday.

The broad upper-level trough begin to weakens over the weekend. Mostly dry weather with below normal temperatures is forecast across the interior NorCal on Saturday, but a few showers are possible over the Sierra crest during the afternoon. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be up to around 5 degrees warmer on Saturday, with highs into the 80s across the valleys. The through is expected to drift back to northern California, with an embedded shortwave trough bringing a slight chance of mainly Shasta County showers, generally dry elsewhere. In addition, an enhanced in the onshore winds is expected. West gusts up to 25 mph in the Delta possible, with up to 35 mph over the Sierra.

Dry weather with a warming temperatures trend is expected early next week as the persistent trough shift eastward, a brief shortwave ridge builds in. Meanwhile, ensemble and deterministic models continues to suggest an upper-level trough developing quickly off California. There is a consensus between models with this trough absorbing the current Hurricane Marie mid-next week.

There is still some potential for monsoonal moisture moving into California mid next week, but confidence in precipitation potential from this extending into interior Northern California remains fairly low. Currently the best potential for rain is over the mountains south of I-80 on Thursday, especially in the mountains. Temperatures trend warmer, with near to above normal by mid to late next week..

AVIATION

Periods of MVFR with ceiling restrictions are impacting the terminals south of the I-80, while VFR conditions remain at KRDD and KRBL. Expect VFR conditions at all terminals this afternoon, with VCSH at KRDD and KRBL from 05/02Z-05/05Z. There is a 20-30% chance for MVFR ceilings from 11Z-16Z for KSMF, KSAC, KMCC and KMHR. Any low clouds will cleared after 16Z Saturday. Valley winds south to west around 5-10 kts today and Saturday. Winds over the Sierra will continue to ease throughout the day.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.