textproduct: Sacramento

KEY MESSAGES

- One more afternoon and evening of mountain showers and thunderstorms today. Thunderstorms should be limited to Sierra (20-30% chance). - Dry weather and warming temperatures through Saturday.

- Next system possibly late Saturday early next week with low confidence at this time.

..Remainder of Tuesday and evening

The upper level trough in the area will continue to bring some lift and instability to the area. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Instability isn't too bad, up to around 400 J/Kg so some isoalted stronger cells with heavy rain will be possibly this evening over the Sierra.

This trough moves out of the area tonight with upper level high pressure building into the area Wednesday through Saturday. This will bring warm amd mild conditions with high temperatures in the 80s.

Confidence in location and timing of the next system remains. Ensemble means have been trending to take the upper system more off shore which would mean less clouds and precipitation. Upper diffluence and forcing from this system would possibly bring chance of mountains showers later on Saturday but perhaps as late as Sunday. Still a fair amount of uncertainity at this time. This pattern would also put the valley at risk of showers and thunderstorms depending where it sets up. Stay tuned to updates but overall this doesn't appear to be very impactful system either way.

AVIATION

VFR conditions at TAF sites next 24 hours. Light surface winds generally 10 kts or less. Local MVFR conditions from scattered mountain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening until around 03z Wednesday. A few light showers may develop over the Sierra south of Highway 50 Wednesday afternoon.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.