textproduct: Sacramento

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain, gusty winds, isolated thunderstorms, and substantial mountain snow late Sunday through mid week with Major mountain travel impacts and snow levels in the foothills.

- Potential for active weather to continue late next week into the following weekend.

..Sunday through Next Week

A low pressure system moves onshore Sunday evening through mid week bringing widespread rain, isolated thunderstorms, gusty winds, and heavy snow. Heaviest precipitation moves onshore and into the forecast area late Sunday and into Monday and continues through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Snow levels will be around 4500-5500 feet Sunday night through Monday. 2500 to 3500 feet snow levels by Monday night and 1500 to 2500 feet Tuesday into Wednesday. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the cold push of temperatures which will affect snow level exact timing. There exists a scenario (30 percent chance) for faster degradation of snow levels which would lead to higher snowfall in the lower elevation of the foothills. So the potential is there for snow levels as low as 1000 feet for areas along the Coastal Range, around Shasta County, and in the southern Cascades. Accumulations range from up to 1 foot around 2000 to 2500 feet, 1 to 2 feet at 2500 to 3500 feet and 4 to 8 feet at higher elevations. Wind gusts of 45 to 55mph are expected in the higher elevations. The Winter Storm Watch was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Sunday through 10 PM Wednesday for the foothills and mountain zones.

If you plan to travel this holiday weekend through the mountains travel the rest of today before conditions start to deteriorate Sunday as the system moves onshore. Snow will be heavy and winds will be out of the south, with gusts up to 45 to 55mph. Heavy snow and whiteout visibilities create dangerous to near impossible travel conditions. We will continue to monitor the lower elevations as any deviation of snow levels by a couple hundred feet increase the threat of impacts for communities within the foothills. If you plan to travel this weekend, have backup plans, carry a winter safety kit, and be prepared.

Moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are expected for areas within the Valley along with gusty southerly winds Sunday night through Wednesday. Total rainfall estimates are between 1 and 3 inches for areas within the northern San Joaquin Valley and into the Sacramento Valley. Up to 4 inches inches isolated 5 inches within the northern Sacramento Valley towards the lower foothills. Slick travel and localized urban and small stream flooding is possible. Winds will also be strong Monday through Wednesday for the Sacramento Valley with gusts of 35 to 45mph. Thus, a Wind Advisory is in effect 10 AM Monday through 10 PM Wednesday for the Sacramento Valley.

As we push into the later part of next week and into the following weekend, the troughing over the eastern Pacific continues. This has been indicated in long term guidance. So, a potential active pattern looks to continue as we push into the last part of February.

AVIATION

MVFR conditions continue for RDD and RBL as ceilings remain low thanks to increased cloud coverage and VCSH around the area. Areas around Sacramento and into the northern San Joaquin area will remain VFR through 02-05z before ceilings drop to MVFR. Rain will move into RDD and RBL around 6z and continue through the end of the TAF period. Areas in Sacramento will see rain move in around 12z through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be light and out of the south through the TAF period.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.