textproduct: Sacramento

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions persist over the weekend with generally offshore winds.

- Isolated mountain thunderstorm chances (up to 10%) along the Sierra from Highway 50 southward on Monday.

- Dry weather remainder of next week with gradual warming trend through the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

Today-Weekend: Upper level troughing is beginning to eject eastward as of early this afternoon and is expected to exit the region by Saturday. In its wake, a brief period of weak ridging looks to build in over much of the weekend. A deepening offshore trough then looks to gradually approach the West Coast later in the day on Sunday. Resultant weather impacts through the weekend are expected to remain minimal with high temperatures returning to seasonable values in the 80s to low 90s, dry conditions, and light to occasionally breezy north to east winds gusting 15-20 mph at times. While the approaching trough looks to track toward central/southern California, a shift toward onshore, south to west winds looks to arrive Sunday into Monday, introducing some improving humidity values.

Next Week: With ensemble guidance in general agreement on a more southerly track of the early to mid week trough, mountain thunderstorm chances are beginning to trend further southward as well. Isolated thunderstorm chances up to 10% remain in the forecast, but highest potential is anticipated along and south of the Highway 50 corridor at this time. While coverage will likely be limited at best, primary impacts from any thunderstorms that develop will be new fire starts from isolated lightning strikes and gusty outflow winds. As the trough oscillates over SoCal and the Desert Southwest into the remainder of the week, interior NorCal is on track to remain underneath split flow aloft. This will generally usher in a period of lighter onshore winds, and with rising heights aloft, slightly warming temperatures into the mid to late week period. While there is uncertainty in the exact details of the warming next week, areas of Moderate HeatRisk will be possible in the Valley and Delta on Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected through 18z Saturday. Gusts up to 15-20 MPH across the forecast area until 00z Saturday before weakening in the Valley and lingering over the Sierra and Delta overnight. Forecasts show a 20-40% chance of MVFR conditions from lower ceilings across the Sacramento Area sites from around 12z to 16z Saturday.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.