textproduct: Sacramento

KEY MESSAGES

- Next chance of rain and mountain snow looks to be New Years Day. Confidence not very high right now with intensity but worst case sceneario would be much less impactful then recent storms.

- Fog/low clouds possible in the Valley/foothills once again this week leading up to the next weather system.

..New Years Day and Friday

Interesting pattern setting up for this period with fairly big difference in solutions. Cluster analysis showing most likely pattern being a moderately deep trough setting up over the west coast. Strongest solutions are the EC Ensemble solution with the GFS right now much drier. Both models showing the main moisture source for this trough to come from the southwest U.S. with really not a tropical AR type moisture fetch. With the wetter ECS solution...this system looks to NOT be nearly as impactful as the last weeks storms. Right now, like the NBM solution of blending the 2 GEFS/ECS solutions showing rain a good shot (50-80%) across the valley New Years Eve day with the ECS wetter. Again, at worst looks like mainly a low impact system. At this time, snow levels look to be around 5000 feet with NBM probabilities maxing in the 4" range. Check back for updates with this system as it gets closer. WMR

AVIATION

Some lingering MVFR/IFR ceilings behind the passage of the storm system today, then returning to general VFR conditions after 22Z-00Z. Surface winds out of the north around 5 to 12 kts with gusts to 15-20 kts in the Valley, with northeast to east flow in the foothills and mountains at times. Patchy MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions between 08Z-19Z Sunday in BR/FG at TAF sites from Sacramento southward.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.