textproduct: Sacramento

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain, gusty winds, isolated thunderstorms, and substantial mountain snow this evening through mid week with Major mountain travel impacts and snow levels in the foothills.

- Potential for active weather to continue late next week into the following weekend.

..Next Week

A low pressure system moves onshore to CA this evening through mid week bringing widespread rain, isolated thunderstorms, gusty winds, and heavy snow. Heaviest precipitation moves onshore and into the forecast area tonight and then continues through Tuesday- Wednesday. Snow levels will be around 4500-5500 feet tonight through Monday. 2500 to 3500 feet snow levels by Monday night and 1500 to 2500 feet Tuesday into Wednesday. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the cold push of temperatures which will affect snow level exact timing. There exists a scenario (30 percent chance) for faster degradation of snow levels which would lead to higher snowfall in the lower elevation of the foothills. So the potential is there for snow levels as low as 750 feet for areas along the Coastal Range, around Shasta County, and in the southern Cascades.

That all being said, our Winter Weather Earning is is in effect for our mountain and foothills zones for accumulations from up to 1 foot around 1500 to 2500 feet, 1 to 2 feet at 2500 to 3500 feet and 4 to 8 feet at higher elevations with gusts up to 45-55 mph.

These conditions will create whiteout visibilities with dangerous to near impossible travel conditions. We will continue to monitor the lower elevations now as any deviation of snow levels by a couple hundred feet increase the threat of impacts for communities within the foothills. If you plan to travel this week, have backup plans, carry a winter safety kit, and be prepared.

Moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are expected for areas within the Valley along with gusty southerly winds tonight through Wednesday. Total rainfall estimates are between 1 and 3 inches for areas the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Sacramento Valley. Up to 4 inches inches isolated 5 inches within the northern Sacramento Valley towards the lower foothills. Slick travel and localized urban and small stream flooding is possible. Heaviest rain rates expected this evening into Monday afternoon

Winds will also be strong Monday through Wednesday for the Sacramento Valley with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Thus, a Wind Advisory is in effect 10 AM Monday through 10 PM Wednesday for the Sacramento Valley.

As we push into the later part of next week and into the following weekend, the troughing over the eastern Pacific continues. This has been indicated in long term guidance. So, a potential active pattern looks to continue as we push into the last part of February.

AVIATION

Breezy winds through the Sacramento Valley with gusts up to 20-25 kts until around 00z Monday. Then VFR to MVFR conditions this afternoon ahead of our weather system that will bring scattered showers initially to RDD/RBL and by 00z Monday see MVFR conditions develop elsewhere with IFR conditions at times in areas of heavier rain. This will continue into the end of the TAF period with breezy southerly winds.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode- Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County- Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.