textproduct: Sacramento

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions through Saturday with patchy fog in the Valley and Delta.

- Widespread rain, gusty winds, isolated thunderstorms, and substantial mountain snow late Sunday through mid week with Major mountain travel impacts and snow levels in the foothills.

- Potential for active weather to continue late next week into the following weekend.

..Sunday through Next Week

A trough will continue to dig into the eastern Pacific late Saturday and into Sunday with a low pressure system moving onshore to CA Sunday evening through mid week bringing widespread rain, isolated thunderstorms, gusty winds, and heavy snow. Heaviest precipitation moves onshore and into the forecast area late Sunday and into Monday and continues through Tuesday. Snow levels Sunday and into Tuesday morning will be around 4500-5000 feet before lowering toward 3000-4000 feet late Tuesday and into Wednesday. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the cold push of temperatures which will affect snow level exact timing. NBM has been leaning toward a slower push of colder air delaying the onset of lowered snow levels. There exists a scenario (20 percent chance) for faster degradation of snow levels which would lead to higher snowfall in the lower elevation within the foothills around 3000-4000 feet and potential lower to 2000-3000 feet. As of right now forecasted amounts for snowfall are uncertain, but areas around 3000-4000 feet will see around a foot, while areas at the highest elevations will see 4 to 8 feet. If you plan to travel this holiday weekend through the mountains travel now and tomorrow before conditions start to deteriorate Sunday as the system moves onshore. Snow will be heavy and winds will strong with gusts up to 45 to 55mph. Heavy snow and potential whiteout conditions create dangerous to near impossible travel conditions. We will continue to monitor the lower elevations as any deviation of snow levels by a couple hundred feet increase the threat of impacts for communities within the foothills. If you plan to travel this weekend, have backup plans, carry a winter safety kit, and be prepared.

Moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are expected for areas within the Valley along with gusty southerly winds Sunday night through Wednesday. Total rainfall estimates are between 1 and 3 inches for areas within the northern San Joaquin Valley and into the Sacramento Valley. Up to 4 inches inches (isolated 5 inches) within the northern Sacramento Valley towards the lower foothills. Slick travel and localized urban and small stream flooding is possible. Winds will also be strong Monday through Wednesday for the Sacramento Valley with gusts of 35 to 45mph.

As we push into the later part of next week and into the following weekend, the troughing over the eastern Pacific continues. This has been indicated in long term guidance. So, a potential active pattern looks to continue as we push into the last part of February.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail through 6z before fog starts to develop and clouds move in. Areas around SCK and MOD see visibility reductions from 10z through 16z of 3-5SM while areas near Sacramento see visibility reductions down to 5SM. Otherwise skies will be BKN with winds light and variable 6z through the end of the TAF period for each site.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Wednesday evening for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.