textproduct: Sacramento

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain, Burney Basin, and Sierra Foothills through Monday due to hot temperatures, low humidities, and breezy winds.

- Widespread Moderate HeatRisk today into next week across the Valley and Foothills. Hottest temperatures expected Saturday- Monday.

DISCUSSION

Today-Monday...

Latest GOES-West water vapor imagery depicts ridging beginning to build into interior NorCal early this afternoon as troughing digs offshore of the Pac NW. Little forecast change is anticipated as the ridge axis centers over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest while the offshore trough tracks onshore. Resultant high temperatures today are expected to trend above normal today with widespread triple digit high temperatures and more limited overnight cooling then anticipated Saturday-Monday. Current probabilities for high temperatures greater than 100F sit around 60-90% for the Delta, Valley, and lower foothills. Additionally, 50-80% probabilities of high temperatures greater than 105F are forecast for the northern Sacramento Valley. As a result, moderate HeatRisk is expected prevail area wide.

As the aforementioned offshore trough tracks eastward through the weekend, periods of breezy north to west winds are expected to develop at times across the northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain, Burney Basin, and northeast Sierra foothills. The periods of stronger winds are anticipated late Saturday afternoon into midday Sunday and again Sunday evening into midday Monday, with strongest winds gusting 20-30 mph currently forecast for Monday morning. The combination of low daytime humidity values into the lower teens and upper single digits, limited overnight humidity recovery, and periodically breezy to gusty winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions to the above areas through Monday.

Tuesday through next week...

As the passing longwave trough flattens the ridge and introduces broader reinforcing onshore flow to interior NorCal early to mid next week, a slight cool down is anticipated, although widespread Moderate HeatRisk is still expected to persist. While high temperatures into the upper 90s to triple digits are likely to continue across much of the region, increasing onshore flow and the return of a more persistent Delta Breeze pattern is expected to provide some overnight relief for Delta and vicinity Valley locations.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds generally remain 12 kts or less at TAF sites, although some gusts nearing 18 kts will be possible through 06z Saturday. Stronger sustained winds up to 15 kts with gusts up to 22 kts are otherwise expected through the Delta, gradually weakening after 12z Saturday.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.