textproduct: Sacramento
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Cooling trend through early next week.
- Gusty southwesterly winds through Monday combined with low daytime RHs, will lead to Elevated Fire Weather conditions in the Valley.
- Elevated Fire Weather conditions in the Valley Tuesday- Wednesday due to gusty north winds and low humidity.
- Chances for isolated showers/thunderstorms Tuesday-Thursday afternoon and evening over the Sierra and Shasta County.
..Tuesday through Friday
The upper level system moves onshore and through the region Tuesday through Thursday switching the winds from the southwest toward the north to northeast. As this happens we increase our winds, with gusts 35-45 mph possible Tuesday and Wednesday within the Valley. Drier air is filtered into the Valley helping to low daytime RH values into the teens. Localized lower RH values are possible in the northern Sacramento Valley. Right now, we are looking at Elevated Fire Weather conditions Tuesday evening through Wednesday when the winds are the highest and combined with low RH values. Confidence in the temporal resolution of RFW conditions are lower as criteria isn't reached on a consistent basis. None the less, confidence is increasing on the Elevated Fire Weather concerns in general and we will continue to monitor the need for any products for Tuesday through Wednesday as we push through the weekend.
On top of fire weather conditions, we have the chance for isolated showers and storms within the Sierra and parts of Shasta county Tuesday through Thursday. A few higher based storms are possible with 15-25 percent chances (highest in the Sierra south of Highway 50). Confidence remains low on timing, strength, and development of these storms as we have limited moisture and instability as the low pressure moves through. Temperatures will start to warm during this time and reach back into the upper 80s for the Valley by the end of the week as a high pressure builds into the region.
AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. South to southwesterly winds increase through the afternoon for the Sacramento sites, with northerly winds in SCK and MOD. Winds have the potential to gust up to 20kts this afternoon and evening for the Sacramento Sites. Around 6z winds start to go light and variable, with clear skies overnight.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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