textproduct: Salt Lake City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will briefly build over the area Monday, followed by a colder but drier storm system late Tuesday through Wednesday. This storm will have a potential for light valley snow and downslope winds.

LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)

A trough will be digging into Utah/SW Wyoming from Alberta, Canada on Tuesday. This will bring the coldest airmass of the season with mean H7 temperatures down to -11C by Tuesday afternoon for northern Utah/SW Wyoming. Given the continental nature of this trough there won't be a lot of moisture to work with. A strong cold front will move into northern Utah on Tuesday and quickly surge south. The timing of this frontal passage is still a little uncertain. As CAMs start to come into view, they are holding off on the frontal passage until later in the afternoon/evening, whereas previous EC/GEFS guidance suggested an earlier FROPA. This frontal passage will come with a quick burst of precipitation (or none at all for some locations given the dry nature of the airmass). With such cold temperatures there should be a quick transition from rain to snow down to valley floors behind the cold front. Early snowfall estimates for valleys are T-1" with 2-4" in most mountains.

After this front passes through, a cold airmass will settle into the region. Lows on Wednesday morning will be in the teens and 20s for most valleys with freezing conditions around portions of lower Washington county and near Zion. Expect high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal on Wednesday. As this trough pushes into northern Arizona it will morph into a closed low that will linger around the Four Corners for the remainder of the week before eventually pushing east by the weekend. The main impacts from this will be the potential for easterly downsloping/canyon winds across northern Utah on Wednesday/Thursday as 700 mb flow aloft is maximized in an easterly direction. These closed lows are notoriously tricky for forecasting their position and trajectory, so the potential for these easterly canyon/downsloping winds will need to be monitored as more hi-res guidance becomes available in the coming days. This low will help keep temperatures ~10 degrees below normal, but most of the precipitation will stay on the eastern side of the low into New Mexico and Colorado where more moisture resides.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Scattered showers will continue through the afternoon, largely diminishing after 01z, though a few showers may last until midnight. Northerly to northwesterly winds will continue across the area, with strong winds expected downwind of higher terrain near KPUC, KBCE, and particularly near KSGU. KSGU may see fluctuations overnight and Monday morning between light and variable winds, and gusty NE winds exceeding 30kts.

Some areas may see fog developing overnight, with the highest chances for KLGU (70% chance of LIFR conditions). Other locations have lower chances, around 30% for both KEVW and KBCE. KHCR, KPVU, and KCDC may see lower CIGs develop between 06-14z, near MVFR to even IFR (15% chance).

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ112- 113-117-125.

Wind Advisory until 9 AM MST Monday for UTZ123.

WY...None.


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