textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record temperatures will continue across southern Utah Monday, returning to northern and central Utah Tuesday.

- Another dry cold front will cross much of the state Thursday, with temperatures north of Cedar City falling to around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Areas south of Cedar City will cool 1 to 4 degrees or so.

- Temperatures will warm once again to 10 to 20 degrees above normal next weekend.

- The next chance for measurable precipitation across much of the region is Sunday, March 29.

DISCUSSION

The seven day forecast for the region is largely a story of an active northern stream temporarily flattening the large upper level ridge, with dry cold fronts crossing the state...until next weekend, when at least portion of the guidance (as of the 12Z runs, about 40-50% of members) breaks down the ridge and develops mean troughing across the West.

For now, after a "cooler" day across the region...another day of well above normal temperatures is expected as temperatures warm back to near record levels across the entire state by Tuesday. The current deterministic National Blend of Models (NBM) suggests the Wasatch Front may reach or exceed the monthly records set just a few days ago, with the forecast high of 84F at SLC.

Note that while some members of the ensemble systems suggest 700mb temperatures will reach 11C or greater (and thus a high near 86F), KSLC sits on the northern boundary of these very warm 700mb temperatures. Around 65% of ensemble members currently forecast a 700mb temperature in excess of 10C by Wednesday afternoon, only about 25% in excess of 11C. Either way, there is a high probability KSLC will approach or exceed the monthly record set just a few days ago.

A strong, but dry cold front will bring another "cooler" airmass into at least northern and central Utah Thursday, with temperatures falling to around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Gusty northwest winds will occur in the wake of the front across most of Utah Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, with around a 35% chance wind gusts will exceed 45 mph in the western Uinta Basin and Castle Country (typical downslope winds post-frontal). Will need to monitor these areas moving forward for the potential for wind advisories.

By Saturday, warm southwest flow will again build into the region...bringing temperatures to around 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

Attention then turns to the first real threat of precipitation for an extended period of time Sunday into the next Monday as a southwest flow pulls deep moisture into Utah ahead of a shortwave trough, coupled with the potential for preferential jet dynamics. Ensemble members are all over the map with this system and/or keeping a strong ridge in the West. 12Z ensemble members were approximately 40% with this deeper solution and 60% ranging from a shallow brush-by to more persistent ridging. Model trends will be interesting to monitor over the next few days. That said, by and large these solutions are warm given the southern tier path of this system...and snow levels will remain quite high, with over 95% of solutions suggesting snow levels 9000 feet or higher Sunday, 75% by Monday morning on the backside of the trough.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Northerly winds will continue to gradually relax, becoming light and terrain-driven overnight, particularly by 06z. Breezy westerlies to southwesterlies will pick up again after 18z Monday. Expect VFR conditions and SCT-BKN high clouds.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.