textproduct: Salt Lake City

SYNOPSIS

A significant winter storm will impact northern and central Utah through Sunday morning. The potential for unsettled weather continues through the middle of the upcoming week.

LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Sunday)

The longwave pattern will remain largely unchanged through the long-term period, resulting in only minor sensible weather changes through the week across the forecast area. With high pressure centered well off the California coast, Utah and southwest Wyoming will likely see persistent anti-cyclonic, west-northwest flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Weak warm- air advection will produce both increasing temperatures and snow levels, with highs reaching 10-15 degrees above normal statewide as early as Tuesday. It's looking to be a beautiful week across southern Utah, with highs increasing to the upper-50s to mid-60s with minimal cloud cover. Sorry, snow lovers.

Lingering moisture will still be in place across the north, resulting in continued chances for light precipitation through the week. Snow levels will slowly rise from around 4000-5000ft on Sunday morning to above 7500ft by Wednesday. Precipitation amounts, however, still depend on the positioning and strength of the aforementioned ridge. We can divide this into roughly two main scenarios: first, if the ridge is more amplified and/or slightly further inland, this would divert moisture associated with a landfalling atmospheric river well to our north. The second, less probable solution favors more zonal flow which could produce more precipitation and stronger winds across northern UT/southwest WY...though chances for this occurring are decreasing, with chances for more substantive precipitation now less than 10 percent. While model trends do point more towards these drier solutions, this isn't to say that the area will remain fully dry...just that both PoPs and QPF will remain low through the week.

For Friday and beyond, most model guidance suggests high pressure will build across the western US, though around 25% of ensemble members do favor a more active longwave pattern. Forecast confidence remains fairly low at this time.

AVIATION...KSLC

A second round of precipitation will move into the area early this morning, resulting in a period of light-moderate precipitation between ~14-19z (though intermittent showers may continue through the afternoon). MVFR conditions will accompany this round, with a 30% chance for periodic IFR conditions. Snow will transition to rain in the early afternoon, and will remain rain as a second round of heavier precipitation moves in Friday night. CIGs are expected to remain below 5000ft through the TAF period.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Snowfall will continue across N- UT/SW-WY this morning, resulting in periodic MVFR-IFR conditions. Showers will become more scattered and showery in nature this afternoon, with many valley sites transitioning to rain as snow levels rise above 6000ft. Gusty westerly winds will develop mainly across higher terrain and over SW-WY, with gusts increasing to around 30kts at KEVW by Friday evening.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for UTZ103- 107.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for UTZ108-110>113- 117.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Saturday for UTZ109.

WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Saturday for WYZ021.