textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected today before a cool down Tuesday and Wednesday (near normal). Temperatures return to above normal temperatures the remainder of the week and into next week.

- Strong and gusty westerly winds will develop on Monday and persist through the weekend across southwest Wyoming and along the ridgetops and leeward side of terrain of central and northern Utah.

DISCUSSION

Well above normal temperatures build into Utah and southwest Wyoming today as southwest winds spread across the region. Across much of the area, high temperatures will run about 10-15 degrees above climatological normals with southwest winds gusting to around 25-30 mph across western Utah. For southwest Wyoming, closer proximity to the active jet stream to our north will help to bring afternoon wind gusts of up to 35 to 40 mph. Nonetheless, largely unimpactful weather will prevail today across the region.

With the active jet stream lingering to the north, the battle between a spring airmass and winter airmass will persist. This jet stream, and the associated trough, will dip southward (mainly east of the area) which will help to introduce a largely dry cold front to the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming. This boundary will drape across the area from early Tuesday through Wednesday before retreating northward late in the week. As such, we'll see temperatures trend back toward climatological normals for this time of year for Tuesday and Wednesday. As the boundary sags southward early Tuesday morning, there will be generally low probability (20% or less) of light snow showers (total SWE potential less than 0.1 inches) in the high terrain across northern Utah. Otherwise, anticipate dry and cooler conditions for both Tuesday and Wednesday across the forecast area.

Heading through the second half of the week, there is high confidence in a ridge of high pressure reestablishing across the region which will help to bring the return of above normal temperatures (+10-15 degrees) from Thursday and beyond.

The biggest uncertainty with the forecast arises as we head into the weekend as the longwave trough to our northeast will see a shortwave progress inland from the southern B.C. region. Currently, there are about 25-40% of ensemble members that bring this shortwave in close enough proximity to northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming to provide enough lift and moisture to spread light precipitation and a weak cold frontal boundary across this area. Probability of seeing noteworthy precipitation (0.1 inches or greater) on Saturday and Sunday is quite low at this time (around 10%). Thereafter, there is STRONG model agreement on a significant ridge building into the western U.S. which will allow temperatures to increase even more... and could even give us a run at our first 80 degree day in Salt Lake City (50% chance by Thursday). If we can achieve 80 degrees next week, it will be the earliest 80 degree day on record (current record: March 31).

Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming

VFR conditions and gusty southwest winds are expected across Utah and southwest Wyoming throughout the valid TAF period. Across the western half of Utah, peak wind gusts are expected to be around 25kts. For southwest Wyoming, gusts may be as high as 35kts. Gusty winds will decrease after sundown, however, a weak cold frontal boundary will bring a northerly wind shift overnight and early Tuesday morning.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.