textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1001 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall threat increases late Saturday through Sunday as a remnant tropical system and associated deep moisture lift through and interact with an approaching trough. Widespread water amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, with locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches possible, particularly in high terrain and areas along and northwest of the circulation track.

- There is also a wind threat associated with this storm, particularly in the higher terrain, with ~50% chance of wind gusts in the mountains near the circulation gusting 50+ mph and ~30% chance of wind gusts 58+ mph.

- A closed low will slowly meander across the Great Basin Monday through Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining and snow levels falling to 8500-9000 feet.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1001 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Ongoing weather pattern has resulted in another very mild day this Thursday, with temperatures generally 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Very limited mid level support and moisture did result in some isolated showers and thunderstorms, largely over high terrain. With lack of heating, models support the ongoing activity fizzling out, leading a dry night across the region with mild overnight lows. Friday then looks to see a similar pattern with well above normal temperatures and the development of some isolated showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Saturday will see the forecast pattern start to change. A trough will continue deepening southward from the PacNW enhancing deep southwesterly flow across the Great Basin and Intermountain West, while at the same time Tropical Storm Rachel is forecast to be approaching the Baja Peninsula. The trough will continue to deepen into Sunday, helping pull a weakening Rachel northward and accelerate. Moisture will continue to overspread the area, and the remnants of Rachel are most likely to then pass through the area sometime Sunday into Monday. In regards to impacts and specific threats, one area of uncertainty that will be key is the exact track of Rachel. Currently along and north/northwest of the track is where the highest signal for the most rainfall is, with more of the strong wind component and possible severe weather threat expected on its eastern flank. Rachel is forecast to make a sharp easterly turn overnight into Friday morning, and how quickly this occurs will likely play a key part in if the future track shifts more westerly or easterly.

Looking closer at Saturday, with the deep southwesterly flow overhead, breezy conditions are expected to develop by Saturday afternoon with widespread gusts around 30-45 mph. The strongest signal is noted across portions of the West Desert, where there is around a 30-50% chance of winds pushing into Wind Advisory levels (3 hours or more of gusts in excess of 45 mph). Aside from the wind, the increasing moisture associated with Rachel will result in a corresponding increase in shower and thunderstorm chances across the region. With shear increasing, a few more organized thunderstorms may be on the stronger side.

On Sunday the threat of widespread heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds (especially over high terrain), and severe weather all increase. As previously mentioned, to an extent the exact placement of highest threat areas will be track dependent, which is still an area of uncertainty.

For rainfall, the forecast hasn't changed significantly. Widespread amounts of around 1-3" with locally higher amounts (especially favored southerly aspects of high terrain) remains forecast by Monday morning. There is also around a 10% chance of a somewhat narrow swath of heavier rain ~2" or so across a portion of northern Utah where favorable interactions with the trough may occur. Excessive rainfall will be possible, especially in typically rain sensitive basins (recent burn scars, slot canyons, dry washes, slickrock areas). Additionally, the widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will result in a response to area creeks and rivers (see hydrology section).

For wind, continued gusts around 30-45 mph are expected near the remnant circulation, and especially east to southeast. Some models have also indicated a localized potential for some easterly downslope enhancement off of terrain, though this threat would be highly dependent on the exact track. Higher elevations, especially areas in the mountains, will see the best potential for more persistent gusts in excess of 50 mph. Some models also suggest gusts to or in excess of 70 mph possible at some of the higher peaks around the region, such as in the Uintas. Depending on exact timing, strong winds may carry over into early Monday with the circulation's path.

The severe threat Sunday will most likely be maximized from mid morning on through early evening as daytime heating and instability increases. Given the synoptics overhead with a decaying circulation lifting through, deep layer shear is progged to be on the order of 40-60 kts, and effective storm relative helicity around 100-200 m2/s2. This supports elongated hodographs curving with height, translating into a low end tornado threat particularly for any more discrete organized cells. Again, this would most likely be favored on the eastern flank of Rachel's track.

Uncertainty grows pushing towards midweek, with models generally supporting the broader trough cutting off and subsequently meandering eastward. While there appears to be less support for potential interaction with more tropical remnants, there appears to be enough moisture within the trough to maintain elevated precipitation chances and further widespread rainfall/snow above 8500-9000 ft or so. Given saturated soils in the wake of Rachel's remnants, will have to monitor for any heavier pockets of precipitation.

HYDROLOGY, Issued 255 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Widespread precipitation of 1 to 3 inches, locally in excess of 3 inches, particularly across southerly facing mountain aspects, between late Saturday and Monday morning. Expect many area waterways including streams, rivers, normally dry washes, creeks, and slot canyons to have rising, fast flows by Sunday evening. Current forecasts do not bring any rivers to flood stage, but this will be monitored as the fine details of heavy rain bands become more confident. Those with activities near rivers, streams, creeks and recent burn scars should closely monitor the forecast over the next several days. Those with outdoor plans Sunday onward that include any travel near waterways across Utah should consider alternate plans. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through at least Wednesday, but these rates will generally be lower, but areas that receive a lot of precipitation during the weekend will be much more sensitive to any additional rainfall.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will continue at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period. Winds are expected to remain southerly through the day today, although there is a 15 percent chance of a brief shift to northwest within the 21-00z timeframe. A few high-based showers and thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of the terminal after 21Z with some increase in coverage in the overnight hours.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail across all regional terminals through the TAF period. Diurnal winds this morning will trend more southerly this afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain this afternoon, with more focus on northern Utah overnight. These storms could bring some gusty and erratic winds, lightning, and brief mountain obscurations.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 226 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Southwesterly flow will begin to increase today as a storm system drops into the Pacific Northwest. Localized and marginally critical fire weather conditions will be possible due to the winds and low humidities. Temperatures will remain warm for this time of year. Isolated rain showers a few thunderstorms will remain possible today into tonight, with little chance of wetting rain. As the storm system continues to slowly carve south, winds will continue to increase tomorrow, with widespread gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range. Shower and thunderstorm coverage and wetting rain chances will increase as well.

Moisture from remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel will spread into the area late Saturday through Sunday, bringing fairly widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Gusty winds will also continue during this time. While the tropical remnants exit the area Sunday night, the upstream storm system will continue to bring periods of wetting rain as it slowly crosses the area through Tuesday or Wednesday. As temperatures cool, light accumulating snow will become possible above 9000 feet, especially Tuesday into Wednesday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.