textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across Utah and southwest Wyoming again on Wednesday. Storms will be capable of producing isolated flash flooding across central and southern Utah and gusty outflow winds across northern Utah.

- Monsoonal moisture continues to overspread the region through the week, with chances for locally heavy rainfall becoming more widespread with an elevated flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION

A southerly flow aloft remains in place over Utah this evening, with high pressure situated to the east. This pattern has allowed monsoonal moisture to continue spreading into the area. PWATs across most valleys with the exception of northeast Utah are now over an inch, with up to around 1.3 inches across far southwest Utah. Expect PWATS to continue to slowly increase through the end of the week and into early next week (widespread PWATs of 1.25 inches or more are expected by the end of the week). With the low levels continuing to moisten, this will bring an increased threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to the area.

Not seeing much in the way of large-scale forcing in the models at this time to aid widespread heavy rain or any real severe threat. Given this and weak flow, expect most showers and thunderstorms to develop over/near the higher terrain, then largely propagate along cold pools and instability gradients. However, slow storm motions along with potential training could serve as focus points for localized areas of heavy rain.

AVIATION...KSLC

There is still a 60% chance of a W outflow pushing in ~07Z. Wind will settle back S prior to sunrise, and is expected shift back NW ~15-17Z. There is around a 10-20% chance of convection at the terminal Wednesday afternoon, and once again potential for some outflow related wind variability. A general mix of VFR cloud cover above 12 kft is expected, with amounts varying on area convection.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Some remnant outflows will continue to settle out in the next few hours, with terminals otherwise expected to settle back into a diurnally normal flow pattern. For Wednesday afternoon, a similar convective pattern is expected with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, and a corresponding potential for gusty erratic outflow winds. The highest coverage area is roughly along and east of Utah's high terrain and portions of southwest Utah through the West Desert. That said, outflows may impact other terminals further away from convection. VFR cloud cover generally above 10 kft is expected, though brief periods of reduced CIGS/VIS possible in convection.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 154 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Monsoonal moisture continues to spread northward today, with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the state this afternoon. Convective initiation will favor the high terrain early this afternoon, with southeasterly flow pushing any storms that develop north to northwest through the evening. As such, greatest coverage is expected across the western half of the state especially across central and southern Utah. Deep moisture in place across central and southern Utah will support a risk for locally heavy rainfall that will be capable of producing wetting rains and isolated flash flooding mainly for recent burn scars, normally dry washes, and steep terrain. Across northern Utah where drier air is still in place at the surface, storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds to 50 mph. Moisture continues to increase across the state through the remainder of the week, with daily chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms continuing at least through this weekend.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.