textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A closed low continues to meander east across the Great Basin providing renewed chances for widespread light to moderate rainfall across the forecast area with high elevation mountain snow.

- Precipitation chances carry into Wednesday, albeit lower, with a drying trend taking hold into the weekend.

- Freezing temperatures look to develop across locations such as eastern Box Elder county, Juab / Millard counties, Sanpete Valley, and higher elevation valley locations across southwest Utah overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Freezing temperatures look to become more widespread Thursday and potentially Friday mornings.

- High confidence (>80%) exists regarding another system impacting the forecast area around Monday/Tuesday next week. Impacts remain uncertain at this time, though a return to a wetter pattern appears increasingly likely.

DISCUSSION

Per current MesoAnalysis, a closed mid-level low associated with a large mid-level trough is slowly meandering east across the Great Basin. With time, these features will deepen and gradually take on a neutral tilt before ejecting east of the area by Wednesday afternoon. As deepening occurs, widespread ascent will continue atop widespread moisture renewing low elevation rainfall and high elevation snowfall chances across much of the forecast area today and Wednesday. Thankfully, with more modest and widespread ascent, the threat for flash flooding is much lower today than prior days. However, localized areal flooding remains possible given very saturated soils.

On the backside of this low, cold temperatures will begin to fill in via northerly flow. This will set the stage for areas such as eastern Box Elder county, Juab / Millard counties, Sanpete Valley, and higher elevation valley locations across southwest Utah to see freezing temperatures develop overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Additionally, there is a chance freezing temperatures develop across the Sevier Valley and portions of Duchesne county, though probabilities for this were lower (<40%), with the higher probabilities remaining confined to higher elevation locations. Chances for freezing temperatures look to increase as we head into Thursday and Friday mornings, with more freeze product issuances expected over the coming days.

A couple locations stand out regarding localized gusty winds over the next few days, starting with gap winds across Washington county overnight tonight and Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. As the mid-level low progresses east, a tight northerly pressure gradient sets up across southwestern UT which may result in gusts to around 40mph along areas of I-15 in Washington county, potentially exceeding 40mph at times. However, confidence is lower regarding the duration and extremes of this event, thus precluding any wind product issuances at this time. Chances for higher gusts increase somewhat into Thursday morning, and this will be ironed out over the next few forecast cycles.

The next wind event in the forecast looks to occur as another large mid-level trough dives south across the Great Basin into the Southwest, clocking mid-level winds to easterly. This looks to occur around the Thursday night / Friday morning timeframe, which would produce gusty downslope winds across some of our western valleys along N/S facing terrain. Given more modest flow aloft, this may end up as a canyon wind event favoring the Ogden-Farmington corridor, though a few pieces of guidance carry gusts to around 30mph (some locally higher) into the SLC corridor. No product issuance is planned at this time, though will be worth monitoring over the next few days.

Following the departure of this system, zonal westerly flow briefly sets up across the Great Basin ahead of another Pacific system bringing generally quiet conditions through the weekend. As we enter next week, ensemble guidance generally favors another trough impacting the west with >80% of ensemble members supporting this solution at this time. Currently, this looks to bring more precipitation to much of the forecast area, as well as more mountain snow given 700mb temperatures ranging from -2C to -5C. Guidance varies regarding the southern extent of the system, thus influencing how much cold air is drawn south, resulting in a notable spread regarding any snowfall accumulation at this time.

AVIATION, Issued 1209 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

KSLC...Intermittent rain showers will persist through much of the valid TAF period with CIGs likely fluctuating between VFR-MVFR (2000- 5000ft AGL). Periods of heavier rainfall will yield lower CIGs/VIS. Winds will remain northwest, though showers may temporarily cause erratic winds.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Widespread showers will continue through the day across much of UT and southwest WY. Conditions will fluctuate between VFR-MVFR and even brief periods of IFR conditions during periods of heavier rainfall, particularly at KEVW/KLGU/KSVR. Broad southwesterly flow will slowly transition to northwesterly flow across the area by ~21z as an area of broad circulation (the low pressure system) crosses northern Utah.

FIRE WEATHER

A slow moving low pressure system continues to slowly meander east across the Great Basin renewing chances for valley rainfall and high elevation snowfall (snow levels around 7000-8000ft) through Wednesday afternoon. Come Wednesday afternoon, the system looks to exit the region leaving a cool airmass in its wake. Into the weekend, a drying trend will develop with our next chances for precipitation appearing to occur Monday/Tuesday next week. On the back end of this system, canyon winds and potentially a few instances of downsloping winds look to develop Thursday night into Friday morning resulting in locally stronger gusts up to 40mph across portions of northern UT, primarily along the Wasatch Front.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ103-115-116-118-122.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ111-112.

WY...None.