textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1102 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Heavy rainfall ongoing across central and southern Utah will gradually decrease in coverage overnight into early Tuesday morning.

- Showers and thunderstorms reinvigorate Tuesday afternoon across southern Utah, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall remains in effect.

- Dry and mild conditions prevail Wednesday onward areawide as high pressure develops across the western US.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1102 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Current radar depicts a wide swath of rainfall ongoing across much of central and southern Utah generally east of the I-15 corridor. As instability has waned this evening, embedded convection has eased, taking on a more stratiform mode across most of the area. Despite being more stratiform in nature, the deep tropical moisture in place has allowed for rainfall rates to remain quite efficient, which will exacerbate impacts in areas already experiencing ongoing flooding. This swath of rainfall will decrease in coverage as it continues to slowly track northeastward overnight before tapering off over central Utah mid-Tuesday morning.

The associated upper-level low continues to dig further southeast into Arizona on Tuesday, with far southern Utah remaining in a favorable area for wrap-around moisture. Ample instability will still exist on the northern periphery of the low, allowing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon across southern Utah. Heaviest rainfall is favored across the higher terrain given easterly flow resulting in upslope enhancement, and areas near the Arizona border. Given widespread heavy rainfall on Monday has primed soils across the area, the flash flood risk will remain elevated into Tuesday evening across much of southern Utah.

Northern and central Utah will remain under the influence of dry, northerly flow on Tuesday, resulting in cooler temperatures and limited chances for precipitation. This dry airmass will push into southern Utah overnight into Wednesday morning, ushering out any lingering precipitation. Models still show a strong consensus in longwave ridging developing across the western US mid-to-late week, indicative of a gradual warming and drying trend through this period.

AVIATION, Issued 1102 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal through the entire TAF period. Chances for some showers at the terminal remain low but possible through 08z as a cold front pushes through the area. The terminal is currently experiencing light east-southeast winds, which is forecast to switch to elevated northwest winds through much of tomorrow, with gusts up to 20kts.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals. Chances for showers remain possible across most TAF sites through 8z, especially at the southern terminals. A cold front will move through much of the area, resulting in VFR conditions with enhanced NW flow across all northern TAF sites. However, KCDC and KSGU will continue to see chances for showers and thunderstorms carry in through much of tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Another round of heavy rain is expected this afternoon and evening across the southern third of Utah. With very saturated ground in this area, flash flooding will again be a threat. As high pressure builds into the region, expect a warming and drying trend through this weekend.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for UTZ117-120-121- 125>127.

Flood Watch through this evening for UTZ123-124-128>131.

WY...None.