textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring increasingly hot and dry conditions to the region this weekend into mid-week next week.

- Starting Sunday, near-record temperatures, very low humidities and poor overnight recoveries will bring localized critical fire weather conditions to areas of southern Utah with near critical to critical fuels. Little relief is anticipated through at least midweek.

DISCUSSION

North to northwest flow continues to stream across the region this afternoon. A few sprinkles/very light showers are noted across portions of northern and eastern Utah.

Upper level ridging will gradually shift eastward over the next several days, with a few shortwave troughs passing to the east. This will keep warming trends reduced through Saturday...but by Sunday, strong high pressure will shift into the Desert Southwest.

With a 590dam high centered over Arizona by Monday, near record to record temperatures can be expected across much of the region. Many sites will see their warmest temperatures of the year Sunday into Monday.

With very dry, near-record temperatures, the threat of locally critical fire weather conditions begins as early as Saturday into Sunday. See the fire weather discussion for more information.

Looking at the various ensemble members midweek, the biggest question will be where the mean troughing sets up...whether it's along the California Coast and Utah stays in dry, hot, southwest flow, or the northern stream remains far enough south to be progressive for the northern states and allow for additional cut- off lows to meander across the southwestern states. But for now, there is little to no chance of measurable precipitation across nearly the entire CWA through at least next Wednesday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon across southwest WY, mainly before 00z. Otherwise, expect largely quiescent weather with VFR conditions. Winds will increase out of the northwest this afternoon across areas north of I-70, with gusts to 20-25kts (closer to 30kts at KEVW/KFBR). Winds will remain largely light and terrain-driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will build into the region over the next few days, bringing near record temperatures and very dry conditions. By Sunday, many areas will see low teens to single digit humidities with poor to very poor overnight recoveries.

There is little relief in this pattern through at least Wednesday. A portion of the guidance suggests a low threat of high-based thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Given very dry antecedent conditions, this will be worth monitoring going forward.

Areas with fuels that are nearing critical to critical will see localized critical fire weather conditions as early Sunday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.