textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated diurnal storms remain possible (~20% chance) across the terrain over the next several days.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur across central and southern Utah Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Drier air will remain in place across the area through at least the middle of the week. The prior trough that brought widespread precipitation has lifted back to the north with shortwave ridging building back into place before a more substantial ridge redevelops across the Four Corners area later in the week. Low and mid level moisture remains high enough over the coming days that diurnal convection will still persist across the higher terrain (~20-30% chance) with a few (~5% chance) storms possible across the lower terrain. Temperatures will get back into the 90s tomorrow with a gradual increase as the ridge strengthens across the area.

Guidance has trended further north with a shortwave moving through Montana on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will keep winds a bit weaker with storm chances lower compared to prior forecasts. Winds are now forecast to remain <30 mph for afternoon gusts. This will limit the locally critical to elevated fire weather conditions given that RH will also stay >15% across most locations.

The monsoon pattern starts to redevelop by the end of the weekend as a ridge becomes centered near the Arizona/New Mexico border. The majority of guidance has PWAT anomalies remaining above normal through the remainder of the month which is line with the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook.

AVIATION...KSLC

South winds are expected to prevail through the night into Sunday morning before turning northwest around 19z, with a 30% chance the wind shift will occur around 20z or later. VFR conditions will prevail through the valid TAF period. There is a 10% chance of a rain shower over/near the terminal Sunday afternoon which, if it occurs could produce briefly gusty and erratic winds.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the valid TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop again Sunday afternoon. Generally light winds with typical diurnal trends are expected at area terminals.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 128 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A drier air mass will continue to shift into the region, with humidities expected to decrease through at least mid-week statewide. Valley RH will reach critical levels as early as Sunday, becoming more widespread heading into the work week. Overnight RH recoveries will become increasingly poor through at least Wednesday morning, with many valleys only reaching 30-45%. A system moving through the Interior Northwest will bring an increasing threat of gusty winds...with elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday across primarily central and southern Utah. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today and Sunday afternoon mainly across higher terrain, with otherwise little to no wetting rain chances.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.