textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring hot and very dry conditions through the first half of the upcoming week, with the hottest temperatures of the season across areas like St. George and Glen Canyon National Recreation area.

- Gusty northwest winds combined with hot and very dry airmass will result in critical fire weather conditions through Wednesday across portions of eastern, central and southern Utah where fuels are critically dry.

DISCUSSION

Remnant moisture across the southern mountains will again allow for isolated high-based convection across the mountains and adjacent valleys to continue to develop this afternoon and evening. Instability will be much more limited today, with SBCAPE values closer to 100-250 J/kg. A stray microburst or two with wind gusts to 45 mph is the most probable outcome.

With the northern stream remaining quite active to the north through this weekend, expect northwest flow to increase over the next several days, with critical fire weather conditions becoming more widespread Tuesday into Wednesday across portions of central, eastern and southern Utah. See the fire weather discussion for more information.

High pressure will shift eastward Thursday, decreasing northwesterly winds. By Saturday, a weak shortwave trough will shift eastward into the western Great Basin. Ahead of this trough, gusty southwest winds will develop across the southern half of Utah Friday, with high-based convection across northern Utah. While the best forcing for convection shifts east by Sunday morning, isolated high-based convection may continue Sunday afternoon and evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

The airspace will see VFR conditions throughout the day. The northern two-thirds of the area will see mostly clear skies, with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain this afternoon into the early evening. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Remnant moisture will bring the threat of isolated high-based thunderstorms and virga to the southern mountains and adjacent valleys this afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic microburst winds will be the most likely impact.

As active weather continues to the north of Utah, an increase in winds will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern Utah today, spreading to the southern mountains Tuesday. By Wednesday, the stronger winds will shift further south, with critical fire weather conditions expanding to impact the Grand Staircase and Henry Mountains.

While winds will decrease Thursday, another disturbance will approach the Great Basin Friday, increasing winds once again, this time across much of central and southern Utah. Wind will remain elevated into Saturday in these same areas. The threat of high- based dry thunderstorms will also increase Friday into Saturday, especially across the northern half of the state.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ482-488-489-493.

Red Flag Warning from noon Tuesday to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ496.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for UTZ494-498.

WY...None.