textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing moisture over southern Utah will bring a round of high based showers and dry thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. By Sunday this moisture will allow for a better chance of showers and thunderstorms capable of wetting rainfall across southern Utah, with isolated high based showers and dry thunderstorms further north.

- High pressure will bring a return to hot and very dry conditions next week, with widespread valley HeatRisk values in the moderate range by the middle of next week.

- Gusty northwest winds combined with these hot and very dry conditions will bring a threat for critical fire weather across much of the area during the middle portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

A generally zonal flow resides across the forecast area early this afternoon, with the primarily belt of westerlies remaining well to the north across the northern Rockies. A diffuse low level baroclinic zone is keeping a "cooler" airmass across northern Utah with temperatures near climo, while temperatures across southern Utah are running 5-10 degrees above normal.

An upper low noted off the Baja coast is pulling moisture northward into the Desert Southwest at this time, and this moisture will gradually spread northward into southern Utah by midday Saturday. This will be sufficient for a round of high based convection developing over the higher terrain of southern Utah by early afternoon, then quickly spreading south and east through the afternoon and early evening. Dry lightning and strong outflow winds in excess of 40 mph will be common with this initial round of activity. Hi-res guidance hints at a second around of convection spreading out of Nevada and into southwest Utah during the evening. This activity would be moving into a more favorable environment for moderate to perhaps isolated heavy rainfall, and have included "Possible" in the Flash Flood Potential across southwest Utah accordingly.

Confidence is increasing this moisture will continue to deepen Sunday bringing a better chance for showers and thunderstorms capable of producing wetting rain, and in isolated cases moderate to heavy rainfall across southern and perhaps portions of central Utah, thus have included "Possible" wording in the Flash Flood Potential for all areas. Along the northern fringe of this moisture axis, isolated high based convection is expected across the Wasatch Plateau/western Uintas, and can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two off the Oquirrhs impacting the central and southern Wasatch Front.

Mid level ridging off the Pacific Coast will build inland during the early-middle portion of next week, bringing a return to hot and very dry conditions. Forecast temperatures exceed 105F in and around the St George area Tuesday/Wednesday, which are the hottest thus far this year and will boost the Heat Risk into at least the moderate category. Northern Utah will remain just downstream from the ridge axis, resulting in northwest flow which will "limit" temperatures to the low 90s across lower valleys. Northwest winds downstream from this ridge axis will also result in periods of gusty winds across northern and eastern Utah Tuesday/Wednesday resulting in areas of critical fire weather conditions.

AVIATION...KSLC

Northwest winds will continue through the afternoon and evening hours. Drainage winds (typical nocturnal southerly winds) will struggle to develop tonight and may be more variable than normal between 04Z and 12Z. Northerly winds will redevelop between 12-14Z Saturday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Generally clear skies with breezy westerly winds will continue across many terminals through the evening before shifting to typical nocturnal winds after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 103 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A mild and very dry airmass remains in place across Utah this afternoon. Gusty westerly winds will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions through this afternoon across areas east of Highway 89 and north of I-70. Otherwise with this dry airmass in place poor overnight RH recovery below 30 percent is forecast tonight across most of western, central and southern Utah.

High based moisture will spread into southern Utah during the day Saturday, as a weak weather system moves into the Desert Southwest. Widely scattered high based showers and dry thunderstorms are expected by early Saturday afternoon across the higher terrain of southern Utah, with storms spreading south and east during the afternoon and early evening hours. Dry lightning and strong outflow winds in excess of 40 mph can be expected with these storms. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Zones 494, 496 and 498, with lightning coverage expected to be more isolated further west across zones 495 and 497. This moisture will increase on Sunday maintaining showers and thunderstorms with a better chance for wetting rains across southern Utah. The leading edge of this moisture will spread into central and perhaps portions of northern Utah Sunday afternoon accompanied by a threat for isolated dry thunderstorms.

High pressure will bring a warming and drying trend heading into next week, with the hottest temperatures of the year thus far across southern Utah and well above normal temperatures across northern and central Utah. Very low daytime RH and poor overnight recovery will be common across much of the state through at least the middle of next week. With an increase in northwest winds over northern and eastern Utah critical fire weather conditions are expected as early as Monday afternoon, with a better chance Tuesday and Wednesday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for UTZ494-496-498.

WY...None.