textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will develop again Friday afternoon primarily across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary concern.

- Moisture increases early next week as a ridge sets up over the Four Corners region which could lead to diurnal convection across the area.

- HeatRisk will increase early next week particularly considering limited overnight temperature recoveries given increased cloud cover.

DISCUSSION

Utah remains under a southwesterly flow aloft this evening with a longwave trough in place over the western CONUS. A shortwave disturbance that crossed northern Utah earlier today is now exiting to the northeast, and this combined with the loss of daytime heating has allowed showers to diminish late this evening.

The upstream trough will continue to weaken until the flow pattern over Utah trends more zonal by Friday night. Increasingly drier air will spread into Utah through Saturday as a result. Until then, lingering midlevel moisture will aid in another round of convection across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon/evening. However, instability will be slightly weaker compared to today so convection will be less widespread. By Saturday, convection is expected to be even more isolated and confined to over/near the western Uintas. Gusty winds continue to be the main threat with any showers or thunderstorms. Marginal to very isolated critical fire weather conditions were noted today across portions of central and southern Utah. However, winds Friday through Saturday are expected to be weaker, and as such, there is even less of a chance for critical fire weather conditions through the end of the week.

By Sunday, high pressure looks to develop over New Mexico while a shortwave disturbance lifts north into Utah. The resulting southerly flow is expected to bring some midlevel moisture into Utah, while the weak disturbances may aid in convection. With NBM mean PWATs in the 0.6-0.7 inch range across southern Utah by late Sunday afternoon, not looking at significant or deep enough moisture to produce any notable rainfall. However, isolated high- based convection will be possible. PWATs look to peak on Monday (0.7-0.85 inches across the forecast area) before gradually drying as the high pressure shifts westward and the flow over Utah turns more westerly. High-based convection can be expected to increase accordingly on Monday, then gradually decrease into midweek. Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds during this timeframe could bring some concerns for fire weather.

Temperatures will gradually climb through the weekend under the high pressure, then remain steady or continue to warm slightly through the next week. Afternoon max temperatures will trend around 5 degrees above normal, which would put most valleys into the mid to upper 90s except 101-106 across lower Washington County and the Lake Powell area. HeatRisk is forecast to increase, especially as overnight mins trend warmer. The latest forecast has a Moderate HeatRisk developing over northern Utah early next week, spreading into central and southern Utah by the middle to latter part of next week.

AVIATION...KSLC

Southerly winds expected to prevail overnight along with SCT to BKN VFR mid to upper level cloud cover. A typical diurnal pattern follows, with winds shifting northwest between ~18-21Z Fri, and back southerly ~03-05Z Sat. There will once again be a 10-20% chance of afternoon convection, and associated gusty outflow winds which would bring potential to result in periods of more variability.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A similar pattern to that of the prior day is expected. At northern terminals, SCT/BKN VFR cloud cover in the mid to upper levels will largely be maintained, while clear to mostly clear skies are expected further south. Northern terminals will see roughly a 10-30% chance of afternoon convection Friday, bringing a corresponding chance of gusty erratic outflow winds. Otherwise, anticipate winds at area terminals to largely follow a diurnally typical pattern.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1246 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across southern Utah east of I-15 and across much of eastern Utah today and Friday afternoon. Minimum RH will reach 8-15% across these areas, with southwesterly wind gusts of 20-25 mph. Only isolated areas could see gusts of 30-35 mph, particularly along ridgelines. Winds will be even lower tomorrow overall as the pattern begins to shift more towards high pressure. Across northern Utah, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce dry lightning and gusty outflow winds both Thursday and Friday afternoons.

The air mass will become increasingly warmer and drier as this high pressure builds, with worsening overnight RH recovery through at least Saturday night. Despite very dry conditions, winds will remain relatively light, with only pockets of critical fire weather conditions.

Increasing mid-level moisture arriving likely Monday, but as early as Sunday afternoon, may result in an isolated dry lightning threat coupled with gusty outflow winds once again...with the highest chances on Monday and Tuesday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.