textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and increasingly mild weather will persist, with temperatures rising to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Monday. Isolated areas of fog may develop late tonight in prone areas such as the Cache Valley.

- Model guidance suggests the next precipitation chances hold off until at least next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Recent satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the region, with areas of valley fog quickly dissipating late this morning across portions of the Wasatch Back, Cache Valley, and Upper Sevier River Valleys. Building high pressure will bring stable conditions and a warming, drying trend to the region through at least Monday, with temperatures rising to 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

On Tuesday, a dry shortwave trough will graze across northern Utah, producing a minimal drop in temperatures by a few degrees alongside 700-mb temperatures dropping to around 0C to +2C from around +5C on Monday. This shortwave could also act to mix out any developing valley haze, though it's unclear whether or not the subtle mixing will be enough to fully mix out valleys. Afterwards, high pressure will return with temperatures rising once again through at least the end of the week.

Forecast confidence drops substantively after Friday. Ensemble guidance suggests a cooler, wetter trend heading into next weekend, though around 35% of ensemble members still favor higher 500-mb heights and ridging next Saturday.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period. Winds are currently from the southeast but will switch to diurnally-driven northwesterly between 19-20Z. Southeasterly flow will return around 3Z this evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING... VFR conditions will prevail across most TAF sites through the forecast period. Winds will remain light and diurnally-driven across the region. A few sites, particularly KHCR, could see some isolated patchy fog.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.