textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1212 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Monsoonal moisture looks to bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of UT through Friday before drying out this weekend.

- Below-normal temperatures look to develop tomorrow, persisting through Monday before a return to seasonally-normal temperatures.

- Monsoonal moisture looks to return to the area Monday, potentially persisting through much of next week.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1212 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

High pressure remains in place across the Four Corners with UT settled well within a southwest flow regime serving to push monsoonal moisture across the area. Currently, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing and forecast to increase in coverage throughout the afternoon into the evening. PWATs in excess of 1" will overspread much of UT with southwest UT potentially seeing PWAT's in excess of 1.3" per mesoanalysis. This will enable mature storms to produce heavy rainfall this afternoon, potentially yielding a flash flooding threat for slow-moving storms, especially those over problematic terrain.

As the ridge progresses east somewhat tomorrow afternoon, this will allow a trough over the PNW to deepen somewhat resulting in stronger forcing over the area tomorrow afternoon into Friday afternoon. Friday remains somewhat uncertain regarding the flooding threat given moisture quality is up in the air, though tomorrow looks to maintain robust moisture across much of the state potentially enhancing the flooding threat. Additionally, stronger ascent via the aforementioned trough may potentially yield more widespread mature storms, increasing the flash flood risk on a larger scale. One failure mode with tomorrow regarding flash flooding will be faster storm motions, though training storms remains possible tomorrow afternoon which may offset this.

Come Saturday and Sunday, low-level moisture will decrease following the passage of a cold front. Mid-upper moisture remains in place, however, resulting in daily afternoon thunderstorms persisting across higher terrain across much of UT in the afternoon hours. Additionally, this will serve to lower afternoon temperatures to roughly 10F below average across much of the state.

On Monday, the ridge looks to retrogress west centering itself over the Four Corners region once again, opening up UT to more monsoonal moisture return. As of now, chances appear rather favorable for the monsoonal moisture pattern to continue through much of next week, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to much of UT once again. Additionally, temperatures look to remain moderated following a brief warm-up into Monday with seasonally normal temperatures persisting through at least Wednesday.

AVIATION...KSLC

After a brief lull, showery conditions redevelop later this evening, with a 30% chance for showers to impact the terminal with gusty and variable winds between 04-10z. Otherwise, a persistent mid-to-high level cloud deck persists into Thursday, with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping again after 22z. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could briefly lower VIS to MVFR and reduce CIGS <6kft. Outside of gusty outflow winds, winds remain generally light and diurnally driven.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the southern portion of the airspace into early Thursday morning. A brief lull in activity is expected across the northern portion of the airspace this evening, before scattered showers and thunderstorms become more widely spread Thursday morning. Widespread convective activity is expected to develop again after 18-20z Thursday across much of the airspace, with potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40 kts as well as heavy rainfall that could push VIS into the MVFR category.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1212 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The Four Corners high pressure continues to persist resulting in continued monsoonal moisture across UT bringing daily showers and thunderstorms to much of the state. While a widespread wetting rain is not expected this afternoon, Thursday afternoon appears to bring the highest chance of a wetting rain through this stretch across much of the state as the high pressure slides east somewhat with a storm system moving in its wake through Friday. Come Saturday and Sunday, a drier airmass moves into the state keeping showers and thunderstorms mostly confined to higher terrain. On Monday, high pressure moves back west somewhat potentially bringing monsoonal moisture back to UT.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.