textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Record to near-record temperatures are expected again today.

- A frontal passage tonight will result in a brief cooldown across northern and central Utah through Friday.

- Chances for measurable precipitation return to the region as early as Sunday, with a pattern change ensuing next week.

DISCUSSION

Centered location of the core high pressure that's been retaining a stronghold across the Great Basin region and desert southwest now resides over far southern AZ/NM. Strong onshore flow continues from the PacNW/northern Rockies this morning, but noting the beginnings of falling heights along the US/Canada border in advance of a progressive short wave poised to cross that region tonight into Thursday.

With the latter, expecting a modest CAA event to coincide with a weak surface boundary passage across namely northern Utah late this evening and overnight (from north to south). CAMs continue to advertise a limited potential for shallow convection across the central Wasatch Front coincident with the leading edge of this boundary this evening, thus have a narrow SW-NE strip of slight chance PoPs more for enhanced virga potential than precip, though a sprinkle or three can't be ruled out. Of more note will be the cooling in wake of the cold advection for Thursday, extending through Friday, as temps will be knocked down some 15-20 degrees from the near to record breaking temps that we'll once again experience today.

Heading into and through the weekend the long wave pattern is expected to evolve into more of a transitory one than a pattern of note, weather-wise. A continuation of high pressure erosion further south in time is expected, with flow aloft across the western coast trending more progressive and onshore in nature. Globals do continue to resolve a weak return flow wave translating across the 4-corners region which is more analogous to a summer pattern than early spring...this on Sunday...but at this time only advertise isolated convection over the southern mountains and southeast during the afternoon/eve.

Of more note is the advertised pattern change to a much cooler and unsettled period beginning around day 6, peaking later next week. Confidence in an evolution towards this continues to increase, but significant spread in timing/amplitude of eastern pacific troughing and subsequent short wave passages exists. Keep tabs as we near as sensible weather will be changing significantly from that which we've experience of late.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

High pressure will provide diurnally normal winds and VFR skies at area terminals once again through the day Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, a narrow band of high based showers is expected to form across northern Utah to southwest Wyoming ahead of an approaching front. These isolated showers will likely be high based in nature, with biggest impacts being gusty erratic outflow winds and some slight lowering to VFR CIGS. Around sunrise the surface front will push through northern terminals, reinforcing northwesterly flow behind it. Skies then gradually clear through the day, with the front reaching southern terminals by late afternoon.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ277.