textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1032 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Hot temperatures persist Sunday, with a 25% chance KSLC reaches 100F in the afternoon. Temperatures across southern Utah will remain near normal for early July.

- An increase in mid level moisture will bring a chance of high based showers and dry thunderstorms Monday across the area, and lingering into Tuesday across the north.

- Hot and dry conditions follow for mid-week, before a strengthening area of high pressure brings additional warming and potentially record high temperatures heading into next weekend.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1032 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Evening water vapor loop shows a shortwave ridge extended partially into Utah. Some very low end moisture within the ridge has resulted in some widely isolated showers over portions of northern Utah's high terrain, but nothing that has appeared impactful. Activity has largely ceased at this point, and without further daytime heating, see little indication of redevelopment overnight. Ultimately, looks like it should just be a relatively typical seasonably mild summer night in store.

On Sunday the ridge will start gradually shifting east, while a modest shortwave impulse begins to lift north through the Desert Southwest and into the Great Basin. While the ridge shifts east, it will amplify a bit, allowing daytime high temperatures especially across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming to creep up a few degrees. Areas along the urban corridor will largely push into the upper 90s, with potential for some places to hit 100. HeatRisk does suggest this would flirt with Heat Advisory level for portions of the Wasatch Front, but it appears fairly localized, so opting to hold off on headline issuance for now. Still, those planning outdoor work or strenuous outdoor activity should be sure to stay hydrated and have a way to cool down as needed. Across southern Utah, temperatures don't change significantly as clouds associated with moisture in the approaching shortwave impulse increase. Most of this moisture is more mid/upper level in nature, so could see a few instances of gusty outflow winds if it tries to develop any convection (low chance, around 10% or so).

The shortwave trough will continue to flatten/shift the ridge into early next week as it lifts through the area. This will help knock temperatures in the north back down slightly, but if anything may see temperatures in southern Utah start slowly creeping back upwards. Moisture with this system will remain pretty limited, and also largely confined to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. As such, expect to see isolated to scattered high based convection form primarily off terrain by Monday afternoon. Combination of the shortwave lifting out and drier air starting to push back in will result in activity trending further north and east by Tuesday. As is often the case with high based activity, biggest impact would likely be in the form of some gusty outflow winds, and potentially some lightning in convection that can get going a bit stronger.

From Wednesday on into the weekend, models show surprising agreement in the prior ridge shifting back over the Desert Southwest, and then gradually strengthening and becoming centered more directly overhead. While still a bit out in time, modeled 700 mb temperatures from the weekend into the following week are forecast to push to around 21-24C. This anomalous heat will correspond to an areawide warming trend, with highs by Saturday likely the warmest of the year so far in many locations if the forecast does not change significantly. As-is, forecast highs Saturday carry widespread 100+ temperatures across many Utah valleys, and 105-110 or so for low lying areas of southern Utah like lower Washington County, lower Zion, and the Lake Powell area. So long as the good model consistency/agreement doesn't change, would very likely have to consider heat related headlines, especially since the heat is likely to linger on into at least the early portion of the following week.

AVIATION, Issued 1032 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

KSLC...Southerly drainage winds have just taken hold at the terminal as of this writing. These winds will continue into early Sunday afternoon. Latest guidance suggests a delayed wind shift to the NW to between 20Z-21Z on Sunday. Can't rule out the possibility of the lake breeze boundary getting hung up mid-field for an hour or two around this timeframe as well. Southerly drainage flow then re develops Sunday evening between 04-05Z once again.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions continue for all terminals through the period, with increasing mid and high level cloud deck from south to north. Largely light and terrain-driven winds. One exception may be during the late afternoon and early evening hours when virga may cause gusty/erratic winds, especially across the west desert and central Utah. Worst-case scenario (less than a 10% chance of occurring) peak wind gusts are in the 40-45 mph range.

FIRE WEATHER

A hot and dry airmass remains in place across the state today. Enhanced southwesterly winds are expected to develop mainly across the western half of Utah this afternoon, but generally remain below critical thresholds. Increasing mid-level moisture is expected by Monday, continuing through mid-week. This will result in the development of scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through this period. Convective development will favor high terrain, with main threats being dry lightning and gusty and erratic outflow winds to 50 mph. A very hot and dry airmass redevelops across the region through the latter half of the week as an anomalous ridge of high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. This pattern will favor increasingly poor overnight humidity recoveries and potentially record- breaking heat statewide this weekend.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.