textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers will continue across northern and central Utah, with snowlevels near 8000 to 8500 feet, falling to near 7000 to 7500 feet overnight. Accumulations of up to 3 inches are most probable through Thursday morning, mainly above 7500 feet. - High pressure will build into the region Friday, though will be short-lived across northern Utah as a period of unsettled, almost spring-like weather will begin this weekend and continue through much of the week. Southern Utah will largely remain dry and mild.

DISCUSSION

Morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates a broad upper level ridge remains in place across the eastern Pacific. An active jet continues to stream across the western United States.

As expected, this jet continues to support the threat of showers across northern and central Utah, with ~15% chance of lightning through around 03Z this evening. Snow levels will remain quite high through this evening, around 8000-8500 feet. Additional accumulations up to 3 inches will be the max across elevations at or above this range, though a few localized areas have around a 5% chance of up to 5 inches of snow/graupel mix.

Showers will linger into Thursday across the higher terrain of northern Utah. High pressure will amplify across the region Friday into early Saturday. Mild temperatures will be the rule...with temperatures more indicative of mid-spring rather than late winter.

While previous model runs have suggested this upper level ridge will remain well established across Utah through the next week, the latest runs have shifted toward a more interesting dominant solution.

As an upper level trough approaches the Pacific Coast later Friday into Saturday, the upper level ridge will flatten across the Interior West. A jet max rounding the base of the trough will cross into the northern Great Basin Saturday. The associated warm front will move northward across the northern half of Utah Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. As preferential jet dynamics interact with this front, showers will develop across northern Utah Saturday afternoon.

Early Sunday morning, with the jet overhead, a cold front will shift southward across northern Utah...and will continue to be a focus for showers across northern and perhaps central Utah. This boundary will weaken and then shift north again as another warm front Monday as the upper level low begins to eject across the West early next week.

While the details of the exact movements and timing of these various fronts vary across the ensemble systems, the dominant model solution supports periods of showers across northern Utah (highest confidence), shifting at times into central Utah (medium confidence) Saturday into Monday.

While precipitation chances will remain across the northern half of the state, there is high confidence southern Utah will remain dry through at least early next week, relying on the ejecting upper level low to bring precipitation into this portion of the state. Model solutions increase in spread with the track of this upper level low Monday through Wednesday though most cluster means represents a southern track of this upper level low, with the best chance for precipitation across southern Utah.

For temperatures, however, expect above normal temperatures to continue, with highs averaging around 10-15 degrees above normal through the region for the next 7 days. Given this, snow levels will remain high with any precipitation, largely at or above 8000-8500 feet Saturday through at least Monday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

Isolated to scattered convective showers may impact some terminals from KPVU north this afternoon, especially for those east of the Wasatch. These showers will bring periods of terrain obscuration and variable winds through this evening. Otherwise, light winds early this afternoon increase out of the west-northwest through this evening. Shower activity wanes this evening, with VFR conditions prevailing for all regional terminals through the end of the TAF period.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ110>112.

WY...None.