textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light isolated showers will continue overnight across northern UT with another 1-3" of snow possible across our higher terrain.

- Ridging builds back in tomorrow into Friday bringing conditions more fitting for spring with temperatures running 5-15F above average through at least Sunday.

- Unsettled weather looks to return as early as Saturday night as a closed low moves inland across CA.

DISCUSSION

Currently, observations indicate an enhanced broad belt of WNW flow aloft over the region as ridging builds into our southwest. While subsidence will generally take hold over much of the forecast area this evening as high pressure strengthens, orographic lift coupled with lingering moisture aloft will enable some isolated terrain-driven showers this evening across northern UT. Across the higher terrain of northern UT, another 1-3" of snow remains possible before conditions dry out to end the week.

As geopotential heights increase across the forecast area with the ridge nudging north somewhat, we can expect temperatures across the forecast area to remain quite warm through at least Sunday. Current guidance hints at widespread temperatures across the forecast area reaching around 5-15F above average, with lower Washington county making a run at 20F above average with highs approaching 80F near St. George.

As we enter the weekend, a stout upper level jet within the northern stream will push into British Columbia, flattening the aforementioned ridge over much of the western U.S. weakening it somewhat. At the same time, a closed low will develop within the southern stream and churn off the coast of CA before progressing inland as early as Saturday evening. Diffluence ahead of this feature will spread inland, pushing the upper ridge further southeast and clock winds to southwesterly. A warm front will begin progressing north, stalling over northern UT and assist with producing lower elevation rain showers and high elevation snow showers across northern UT as better upper dynamics move in with the trough ejection.

On Sunday, the aforementioned warm front will begin to trek south as a cold front, continuing to serve as a focal point for precipitation across northern UT and central UT. The aforementioned upper trough will continue progressing east, exiting the area by Tuesday evening.

As we approach midweek, ensemble guidance begins to diverge regarding what develops next. Ensemble clusters are generally split 40% to 60% with the former favoring transient ridging followed by another shortwave moving across the Great Basin bringing another round of precipitation. The latter, however, favors a stronger ridge building in behind the initial system keeping the area drier for an extra day or so. Regardless, long-range guidance continues to hint that the pattern will remain active in some capacity going forward, albeit quite warm.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

Isolated showers may impact some terminals from KPVU/KHCR north through the night. These showers will bring brief periods of mountain obscuration and variable winds. Otherwise, winds will generally prevail out of the west to northwest across northern Utah through Thursday afternoon. Across southern Utah, winds overnight will tend to be more light and terrain-driven before becoming more north to northwest Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail.

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SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.