textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds develop tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon across the northern Wasatch Mountains, western Uintas, and Uinta County WY. Winds will persist into the evening before tapering off somewhat. Winds will remain gusty, though not as high magnitude on Friday.

- A cold front will traverse the area late Saturday, increasing winds and gusts notably this weekend and cooling temperatures down to near-normal on Sunday. Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop with this front across northern UT.

- Anomalously strong ridging will build early next week resulting in a notable warm-up starting Monday, continuing to warm through the week.

DISCUSSION

On Thursday, mid-level flow looks to strengthen once again as an atmospheric river pushes into British Columbia with an attendant deepening mid-level low. Mid-level winds out of the northwest will see an enhancement as the pressure gradient tightens, and with a preceding well-mixed airmass in place, these winds are forecast to mix to the surface. While most valley locations can expect gusts to around 20-25mph, our northern UT high terrain (Bear River Range, western Uintas, northern Wasatch Front) and Uinta County WY can expect strong gusts in excess of 50mph. Uinta county winds tomorrow afternoon will get close to, and perhaps exceed high wind warning criteria (sustained winds >40mph for 1hr or gusts >58mph), though sustained winds will remain generally lower than 40mph (20-40% chances of exceeding 40mph) with similar chances for gusts exceeding 58mph. The highest chances for gusts greater than 58mph are isolated to the southernmost portions of Uinta county (~70% chance).

Gusty conditions will persist through at least Saturday evening as enhanced mid-level flow remains in place. Enhanced northwest flow aloft will begin to move into the Great Basin with mid-level cyclogenesis occurring in the overnight hours Saturday into early Sunday morning. Additionally, a cold front will traverse northern UT Saturday afternoon providing enough ascent for isolated thunderstorms across northern UT, locally enhancing gusts. Valley locations are forecast to remain well below any headline criteria for winds, though chances for winds >75mph (high wind warning criteria) across the Bear River Range ranges from 20-30% with the Uintas hovering around 30-50% Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. The Uinta Basin and Castle County both look to be quite gusty with chances for gusts >45mph (wind advisory criteria) ranging from 30-60% Saturday afternoon.

Ensembles remain in agreement regarding an anomalously strong ridge developing over much of the west bringing dry conditions and anomalously warm temperatures to the forecast area. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain near-normal following the passage of Saturdays dry front before warming significantly. Temperatures across the majority of the state will warm to around 10-15F above normal with lower Washington county reaching as high as 15-20F above normal (80-90% chance of temperatures reaching or exceeding 85F). It will only get warmer and drier through the week with Wednesday featuring a 50-60% chance of reaching or exceeding 80F and a >95% chance of exceeding 90F across lower Washington County. This would smash the record for the earliest 80F day at KSLC, with the record earliest 80F day occurring on 3/31. Ensembles remain in great agreement that even past this 7 day forecast, temperatures will remain anomalously greater than normal across the forecast area with little to no precipitation in sight.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period under increasing middle and high level cloud cover. Light diurnally driven flows will transition to a west to northwest wind Thursday morning, with this wind persisting through the afternoon. Gusts will generally remain around 20 kts across northern Utah, but may exceed 40 kts at KEVW.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ110-112.

WY...None.