textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 244 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Gusty southwesterly winds continue Friday across much of Utah and southwest Wyoming.

- Tropical moisture moves into the region on Sunday with precipitation chances increasing.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1049 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Southwesterly winds will remain elevated on Friday with similar wind gust magnitudes to today (30-45 mph) although a bit more expansive area of these higher gusts. 700 mb winds maximize on Friday morning before gradually decreasing during the day which will help to prevent the winds from gusting higher and for as long. Even though a few areas will see gusts to advisory levels the duration and spatial extent should be limited.

The next chance for precipitation arrives on Sunday as moisture from Hurricane Marie is advected into the region as a trough in the PNW rotates a jet max into Utah on Sunday. The right entrance region of this jet will lead to upper-level divergence and widespread precipitation. The biggest question will be how quickly the base of this trough rotates through. Ahead of the trough will be relatively warm and moist air while behind it will be drier and cooler air. If it arrives faster than the moisture then precipitation will be further east. This is evident amongst the ensemble members as PWATs for KSLC range from 0.7" to 1.00" on Sunday. QPF totals have come down a bit as the arrival of precipitation looks more like an early to mid morning event with cloud cover limiting instability and higher rainfall rates.

Ridging will build back into Utah and SW Wyoming for the first half of next week with seasonal temperatures. The moisture from Hurricane Marie could make another appearance as Marie decays over the Pacific and the remnant moisture is pulled into the west thanks to the PNW trough.

AVIATION, Issued 1049 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

KSLC...A generally dry and enhanced southwesterly flow will persist through Friday. Precipitation is not expected, skies will remain mostly clear to clear, and winds will at times be modestly gusty around 20-30 kts. If/when surface winds relax with the diurnal cycle overnight, low level wind (speed) shear up to around 30 kts in roughly the lowest 1-2 km AGL may develop. Gusty winds return or become enhanced following sunrise Friday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Dry southwesterly flow to persist, maintaining clear to mostly clear skies. Winds will also continue to favor a south to southwesterly direction, with modest gusts around 20-30 kts at times, particularly during the day. Anticipate some terminals will decouple overnight, with diminishing wind gusts yielding instead some low level wind (speed) shear up to 30 kts or so in the lowest 1-2 km AGL. Gusts will tend to increase following sunrise Friday, decreasing wind shear concerns.

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture will make subtle increases across the region today alongside continued strong southwest winds, especially in west-central and southwest Utah. While moisture will begin an increasing trend today through Sunday, areas in Utah's West Desert are still expected to see afternoon minimum humidity around 10-15 percent. Paired with continued strong southwest winds, critical to near-critical fire weather conditions should be anticipated in west-central and southwest Utah, a majority of other regions (e.g. central/norther/southern mountains, eastern valleys, northwest Utah) seeing the continued development of elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions.

Moisture is still on track to increase over the weekend, however, models have trended slower with the onset of moisture. For Saturday, very little change in moisture is anticipated until late in the day. Thus, western Utah is still expected to see afternoon humidity bottoming out around the low- to mid-teens. While the overall magnitude of the winds will be lower, breezy southwest winds will remain in place with peak speeds expected to be around 15-20 mph sustained with gusts up to 30 mph. For eastern Utah, winds will be up to 5-10 mph slower for both sustained speeds and gusts. In short, one final day of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions should be anticipated for western Utah.

Moisture increases Saturday evening into Sunday, bringing widespread, but quick moving, showers and thunderstorms that will persist through the day on Sunday. This moisture is anticipated to quickly vacate Utah, introducing temporary drying but still favoring isolated shower and thunderstorm development off the high terrain. The atmosphere will begin to favor a more robust moisture surge mid-week, keeping the fire weather environment moderated from about Wednesday through the remainder of the week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.