textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Scattered high-based convection is expected to across northern/central UT and southwest WY tomorrow afternoon with gusty outflow winds capable of gusts to 50mph with scattered severe gusts in excess of 58mph.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southern UT tomorrow afternoon as gusts increase with a decrease in RH.

- Probabilities for a notable heat wave developing late this week continue to increase resulting in areas of major HeatRisk developing statewide. Valley temperatures are forecast to reach and/or exceed 100F Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Large-scale ridging continues to build over the Four Corners region with southwesterly flow persisting overhead. Mid- level moisture will continue to overspread UT into tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave trough pushes across northwest UT, deepening somewhat with eastern extent. As such, high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern and central UT as well as southwest WY. Mid-level flow associated with the trough ranging from 40-50kts is forecast to push across northern UT in the afternoon hours, serving to increase eff. shear to around 20-30kts, potentially resulting in the development of organized convection and longer-lived storms. Additionally, DCAPE continues to remain quite high to around 1600-1800J/kg, and with ample flow aloft, scattered instances of strong to severe wind gusts (58mph) appear likely with the potential of a few gusts to 70mph. The highest confidence for these gusts reside in western Box Elder county due to low confidence regarding eastern extent.

Later tomorrow evening into Thursday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly/zonal following the departure of the trough ejecting northeast. Drier air working its way in with the westerly flow with modest height rises across the region will provide enough large- scale subsidence to keep most areas dry with convection remaining across higher terrain. Additionally, temperatures will remain moderated, albeit still quite hot during this time given a more stagnant upper air pattern.

On Friday, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build significantly centered over the Four Corners with high confidence regarding the development of dangerously hot temperatures. On Friday, most valley locations will approach 100F across much of UT. On Saturday, nearly all valley locations are forecast to break into the 100s with lower Washington nearing 110F. Similar temperatures are expected to occur on Sunday and Monday across the entirety of the forecast area. Regarding HeatRisk, most valley locations will see "Major" develop, particularly along the I-15 corridor on Saturday with pockets of "Extreme" developing along the northern Wasatch Front. Both areas of "Major" and "Extreme" will increase in size on Sunday, expanding into both Salt Lake City and Provo, given expected poor overnight recoveries across the aforementioned areas. The threat continues on Monday, primarily along the Wasatch Front.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions can be expected through the day, with southeast winds this morning switching to northwest around 18-19z. There is a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms impacting the terminal after 20Z this afternoon. Northerly winds will likely continue through 06-07z this evening, with a 30% chance of gusts over 26kt/30mph between 01-03z due to outflows.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the day, with generally diurnal winds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening mainly across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible around KBCE this afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms will bring periods of erratic and gusty winds.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 354 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The airmass will trend drier today under a west- southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts west off the northern Baja coast. Afternoon relative humidities will drop below 15% across most of central and southern Utah, down to the single digits in some valley locales. Meanwhile, across northern Utah, lingering moisture will maintain isolated to scattered mainly high-based showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry lightning and gusty outflow winds being the main threat. While chances of showers and thunderstorms across the central mountains and adjacent valleys are nonzero, they are expected to be much more isolated there today. Meanwhile, enhanced winds combined with the low humidities will once again drive critical fire weather conditions across portions of central and southern Utah today.

The drying trend will continue across the area through the rest of the week, with humidities continuing to trend downward across the area and overnight recoveries become increasingly poor especially across central and southern Utah. Convection will become increasingly isolated during this time as well. Thursday may continue to bring critical fire weather conditions as winds remain enhanced especially across southern Utah.

As high pressure builds back into the area for the weekend into the beginning of next week, dry and very hot conditions can be expected. Temperatures are very likely to reach at least 100 degrees in most valleys over the weekend, while relative humidities in the single digits will be common. However, the pattern still looks favorable for moisture to increase into the area beginning early next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-495-497- 498.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ493-496.

WY...None.