textproduct: Salt Lake City

DISCUSSION

A weak shortwave is currently moving through the area. This is evident by some convection currently moving into northwestern Utah. This activity will remain weak and isolated through the overnight hours and into tomorrow. This will also bring temperatures down about 5 degrees compared to where they were today. This shortwave will continue to shift east with some isolated convection still possible across the Uinta basin and surrounding terrain on Wednesday afternoon. Dry and stable conditions settle back into the area through the remainder of the week and into the first part of the weekend.

Guidance continues to trend towards the wetter solution with ~75% of ensemble members supporting a trough sliding out of British Columbia and into the PNW before phasing with tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Tropical in the eastern Pacific and bringing widespread precipitation to most of the CWA. Ahead of this trough, southerly winds will start to increase on Saturday and remain elevated through Sunday before a cold front moves through and transitions the winds to a north and westerly component. There is still ~25% of the members that keep the track of the trough more continental in nature where it doesn't pull in the tropical moisture.

Of the 75% of the wetter members, a majority of them keep a prolonged period of widespread precipitation starting Saturday night and lasting through early Wednesday as the trough becomes cutoff from the northern stream and spins across Utah. Snow levels will start between 11,500-12,000 feet elevation before gradually dropping down a couple thousand feet lower in elevation. Mean 700mb temps are ~1C with the coldest solutions down to -9C by Tuesday which could be cold enough to support some snow down to valley floors, but this solution is very much the outlier. High elevation mountain snow could be substantial given widespread QPF amounts 1-2" with some models showing 3"+ across the higher terrain of the Uintas.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period with high clouds increasing tonight into Monday. Southerly winds will shift to northwesterly by 20-21z Monday afternoon, then return to south around 03z Monday evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all regional terminals through the TAF period. High clouds will increase tonight into Monday, mainly across northern and central Utah and southwest Wyoming. Winds will remain generally light across the area with typical diurnal shifts.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1241 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Dry and very mild conditions will continue over Utah today, with highs 10-15F above seasonal normals this afternoon and minimum RH values in the low to mid teens for many valley locations. A weak storm system will cross the area late Monday into Tuesday, bringing a slight increase in relative humidity values. The system will also bring isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, primarily focused over the higher terrain. Gusty and erratic winds will be the main threat with any storms that develop with a near zero chance of wetting rainfall. Dry and mild conditions will then develop through the first part of the weekend, with a strong Pacific Northwest trough potentially impacting the area early next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.