textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1010 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Mostly dry this weekend with moisture increasing for early next week resulting in more high-based convection.

- Temperatures climb to around 5 degrees above normal by early next week with up to a 30% chance of reaching our first 100 degree day of the year at KSLC.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1010 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A zonal flow pattern is setting up over Utah this evening allowing drier air to spread into the area. Most of the convection from earlier today over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming have dissipated, leaving some patchy midlevel clouds which should gradually clear overnight. With said drier air moving in, convection on Saturday and even most of Sunday afternoon will trend weaker compared to today and will largely become confined to over and near the Uinta Mountains and southwest Wyoming. Temperatures will also trend warmer through the weekend.

On Sunday, high pressure is still forecast to set up near the Four Corners area, and the resulting southerly flow will spread midlevel moisture into the area. However, the bulk of the moisture on Sunday will remain largely over AZ and NM, while a weak disturbance being the remnants of an eastern Pac tropical system looks to lift across CA and western NV, bringing another area of moisture to that area. Latest NBM mean PWATs only reach 0.6 inches across far southern Utah by late Sunday afternoon. As such, expect little more than very isolated high-based convection to develop over southern Utah late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Moisture will peak on Monday, but even then, the NBM mean PWATs across the forecast area are only in the 0.6-0.75 inch range (and still remaining under an inch at the 90th percentile with a range of 0.8-0.9 inches). Thereafter, the high pressure will shift westward through midweek, bringing a drier westerly flow back to Utah. Given this pattern, expect areal coverage of convection to peak on Monday, and even then, it does not look like more than scattered coverage. Then, convection should decrease a bit Tuesday before trending more isolated for Wednesday. With the short duration of the moisture advection, it is unlikely that moisture will be deep enough to produce significant rainfall, with convection remaining mainly high-based and producing gusty outflow winds. There are some fire weather concerns with dry lighting and outflows, but that ultimately depends of how widespread the convection becomes.

Temperatures through next week will largely trend near steady or slightly warmer each day. With lower Washington County and the Lake Powell area seeing temperatures of 102-107 through the week and a few northern and central Utah valley sites near or exceeding 100 degrees, heat will start to become a concern, especially with overnight mins trending warmer as well. Moderate HeatRisk becomes widespread across the valleys for the middle to latter portion of next week, with some pockets of Major HeatRisk late week.

AVIATION, Issued 1010 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

KSLC, Issued 1010 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026... Conditions anticipated to remain largely non- impactful. Winds expected to follow a diurnally normal pattern with S winds shifting NW by around 18-20Z Sat, and back S 03-05Z Sun. Magnitudes will generally remain below 10 kts. A few mid/high level clouds will filter through, but conditions remain VFR.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Weather pattern to remain minimally active across the region, with just some mid/high level cloud cover at area terminals, and prevailing VFR conditions. Winds will largely follow a diurnally typical directional pattern with magnitudes less than 15 kts. Some modest gusts up to 25 kts may mix into more exposed or high elevation terminals like EVW/CDC.

FIRE WEATHER

Weak westerly flow across the region this weekend will yield overall lighter winds and continued hot and dry conditions statewide. An increase in mid-level moisture is expected by Monday as southerly flow develops across the region, resulting in scattered afternoon convection that will mainly be tied to the higher terrain across the state. Elevated southwesterly winds are also expected Monday afternoon, resulting in locally critical fire weather conditions mainly across portions of southern Utah. Winds remain elevated through mid-week, but moisture availability will dwindle as high pressure becomes more amplified across the Intermountain West. As such, diurnal afternoon convection will be more limited in coverage Tuesday and Wednesday. Main concerns for any storms that develop early this upcoming week include dry lightning strikes and gusty and erratic outflow winds. Gradually decreasing RH with increasingly poor overnight recoveries is expected across the state through the remainder of the week as a very dry airmass begins building into the region.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.