textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Wrap-around rain showers continue across far southeast Utah tonight before moving out of the region Wednesday morning.

- High pressure develops across the western US through the latter half of the week, resulting in a gradual warming trend through the weekend.

- While chances remain low at this time (~20% or less), there is potential for moisture to return to southern Utah early next week.

DISCUSSION

An upper-level low continues to progress eastward across Arizona this evening, eventually phasing with Hurricane Polo overnight into Wednesday morning. As these system phase together, a deformation axis develops across the Four Corners region, combining with wrap-around moisture to result in an invigoration in rain showers across this area. High resolution guidance indicates most of the activity will be focused along and southeast of Glen Canyon. A general lack of instability will likely keep rainfall in this area more stratiform in nature, though isolated embedded heavier cores are possible especially in areas near the Arizona border early Wednesday morning.

Northwesterly flow developing on the heels of the exiting system ushers in a much drier airmass across Utah and southwest Wyoming on Wednesday. A high pressure ridge is expected to strengthen across the western US through the remainder of the week, resulting in limited precipitation chances and a gradual warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. Highs are expected to peak on Monday around 10 degrees above seasonal averages.

A bit more uncertainty in the forecast exists early next week, with around 20% of ensemble members suggesting the potential for a shortwave digging into the region to bring increased moisture across southern Utah that could bring more active weather. The Eastern Pacific remains very active with several tropical disturbances and systems already in place; the eventual progression of these systems will heavily impact how our forecast evolves over the next week.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal through the forecast period. Dry and stable conditions with mostly clear skies will continue. Light west to northwesterly winds will continue through most of the TAF period. However, due to drainage from nearby mountains, the flow at the terminal could switch to southerly or vary at times.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist at all TAFs sites through the forecast period. Dry and stable conditions with light northerly winds will prevail at all sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across primarily southern UT through 12-2PM and persist through the late evening hours as tropical moisture continues to work its way north. The threat for flash flooding exists across southern UT once again today, with a particular emphasis for interests located along the AZ border, such as the Telegraph Flats.

Starting tomorrow, high pressure builds in bringing mild and dry conditions to UT. This is forecast to persist through the weekend, with temperatures warming slightly above normals as well.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.