textproduct: Salt Lake City

DISCUSSION, Issued 1043 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Broad upper level ridging will continue to build across the Desert Southwest through Wednesday. As southwest flow increases ahead of a Pacific trough Wednesday, precipitable water values at or above the 90th percentile will shift into southern Utah early Wednesday, reaching northern Utah by Wednesday afternoon. This will combine with a shortwave trough rotating around the periphery of the ridge to bring sufficient forcing for convection.

Model soundings suggest that this moisture advection will be mainly in the mid-levels, with a relatively dry sub-cloud layer. HREF mean SBCAPE values look to be around 350-600 J/kg, with deep layer shear at or above 20kts. Stronger storms may be capable of brief periods of heavy rain along with microburst winds in excess of 50 mph. The threat has shifted in the latest guidance to much of the state rather than just southern Utah.

Convection may be limited to the far eastern portion of the CWA Thursday afternoon and evening as the best forcing shifts east of the region. Something to monitor moving forward given the near record to record dry fuels across the state. A reminder to please use Fire Sense and avoid additional human-caused starts in these conditions. This means paying attention to fire bans, dousing your campfires, checking for heat, and then dousing again until there's no heat, avoid dragging chains, parking on grass, consider skipping fireworks this year and leaving it to the professionals, etc.

After the lightning will come what is looking like a period of significant fire weather conditions Friday into the weekend. Very strong southwest winds with gusts approaching 50 mph, combined with very low humidities will bring widespread critical fire weather conditions to the region. See the fire weather discussion for more information.

AVIATION, Issued 1043 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

KSLC...Generally light southeasterly or occasionally variable winds will persist through the night into Tuesday morning, becoming northwest after 18-19z. VFR conditions will likely prevail, though wildfire smoke could produce reductions in slantwise visibility, particularly around sunrise and sunset.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds will be largely light and terrain-driven across the area tonight, but may become a bit squirrelly near KLGU overnight as a few light high-based showers move through between ~10-15z. Tuesday afternoon, west to southwest winds will increase across southern Utah, with local gusts in excess of 25kt. VFR conditions will prevail across most areas, though wildfire smoke may result in slantwise VIS reductions across Utah and southwest Wyoming...particularly sites closer to wildfires such as KPVU and KHCR, and around sunrise/sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Hot and very dry conditions will persist across the state today, with high temperatures running up to 10F above seasonal normals. Winds will trend stronger across portions of central and southern Utah, enough to result in areas of critical fire weather conditions for zones 492, 494, 496, and 498. A more moist and unstable airmass with spread into the area from the south on Wednesday, bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The storms will initially be high based, bringing a threat of dry lightning and gusty outflow winds. However, as moisture continues to increase, the area will see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, particularly over southern Utah. Drier air will move back in for Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values in the teens to lower single digits returning. There is a high chance of strong southwest winds developing across much of the area Friday into Saturday ahead of the cold front, with gusts to 50 mph at times, combining with the very dry airmass to bring widespread critical fire weather conditions. As the front moves across the area, much cooler temperatures will follow for Sunday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ493-494-496-498.

WY...None.