textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure is expected to be the dominant influence through early next week, maintaining dry conditions with temperatures well above seasonal normals.

- Increasing moisture looks to return the area to an unsettled pattern around the middle of next week. While uncertainty is noted in exact placement and amounts, it appears to favor northern areas. Despite moisture, mild conditions are likely to persist.

LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Monday)

High pressure will bring continued warmer than normal, dry conditions through the start of the week. Valley inversions will be in place, so there will be noticeable haze, particularly for northern valleys. Even with inversion conditions, valley high temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 50s Monday and Tuesday.

There is good agreement with model and ensemble guidance that a pattern change will mix those inversions out Wednesday. This will be associated with an inland-penetrating atmospheric river (AR) event that will primarily bring precipitation to the PacNW. For southwest Wyoming and Utah, most uncertainty is with southward extent of forcing and moisture. From mean ensemble guidance, the GEFS has the furthest southward track, with many of the individual members of that ensemble further south than other ensembles. The most northward track is with the EPS. The GEPS has a more diverse range of solutions. With all members included, those ensembles bring nearly equal probabilities on essentially if precipitation stays near the Idaho border or if the southern extent is somewhere near Salt Lake or Utah County. Regardless of the exact track, the general characteristics of this event will be similar to other AR events, including high snow levels and wet, dense snow for mountain locations.

As precipitation tapers off from this event Wednesday into Thursday, another AR will track into the PacNW Thursday. Ensembles are similar with the track of the best forcing and moisture to the aforementioned event, with the most uncertainty on southern extent of moisture and forcing. Given the synoptic conditions, the track of the first event will be important, with minimal change to influence conditions for the track of the next. This again will bring precipitation to at least far northern Utah.

Through the week, temperatures will be around 15F warmer than normal. The enhanced winds associated with the AR events will bring gusty west to southwest winds for northern Utah, especially ridgelines, and throughout southwest Wyoming from Wednesday into the weekend. Wind speeds will be affected by southern extent of the storm systems.

AVIATION...KSLC

Scattered high clouds will build in around 15Z and last through the TAF period. Light southeast winds will transition to light northwest winds around 20Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mostly clear conditions will transition to scattered high clouds around 15Z for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Clear conditions will prevail through roughly 00Z for southern Utah, with scattered high clouds building in around then. Winds will be light throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.