textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Scattered convection tonight across northern Utah/SW Wyoming shifting east tomorrow.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur across central and southern Utah Tuesday with enhanced southwesterly winds coupled with low humidity.

- Moisture increases late in the weekend and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A weak shortwave is moving through the northern CWA. This is manifesting in the form of showers with embedded convection that is currently moving into the west desert. These seemingly weak showers are capable of producing strong gusty and erratic winds as seen on I-80 in the Salt Flats where a wind sensor gusted to 61 mph briefly. This magnitude of wind gusts are likely an outlier, but gusts to 40 mph closer to the Wasatch Front tonight is well within the realm of possibilities. This activity will keep PoPs between 30-40% chance overnight as this wave moves to the east. During the day tomorrow a shortwave moving through Idaho and Montana will help to spark more afternoon convection across northeastern Utah, primarily near the Wyoming border, including Uinta County, and over the Uintas. Southwesterly winds will be elevated tomorrow across a strip of Utah from the southwestern corner up through the northeastern corner. Gusts 20-25 mph will result in locally critical fire weather conditions.

Temperatures will continue to warm as the ridge strengthens overhead. Highs will peak on Thursday/Friday with ~50% chance of a return to triple digits across the Salt Lake Valley on Thursday. Triple digits will also remain possible (~20% chance) on Friday.

As the ridge positions itself move over the Four Corners moisture will begin to increase by Friday and into the weekend. A trough off the PNW will increase the pressure gradient across the area which will enhance southwesterly flow once again, but higher relative humidity will limit the critical fire weather conditions. Scattered diurnal convection each day will increase the flash flood risk across prone areas this weekend.

AVIATION...SLC

VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period. South winds are expected to prevail through the night and into Tuesday morning. However, there is a 30-40% chance of rain showers and a 15% chance of thunderstorms at the terminal between 06- 13z, which would bring periods of gusty and erratic winds. Northwest winds should return between 19-21z Tuesday while showers gradually diminish over northern Utah. There is a 10% chance of a rain shower Tuesday morning after 13z through Tuesday afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions generally prevail for all regional terminals. Winds remain generally diurnally driven across the airspace. However, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect mainly northern Utah terminals as they move east tonight and will be capable of producing periods of gusty and erratic winds. By Tuesday afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will become mostly confined to the eastern half of Utah.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 208 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A weak disturbance grazing to the north this evening will result in scattered showers and a few lightning strikes across northern Utah overnight. These showers may be capable of producing gusty outflow winds in excess of 30 mph. Isolated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday afternoon, primarily across eastern Utah and higher terrain in central Utah. Similar to tonight, these showers will also be capable of gusty winds potentially up to 40-45 mph. Additionally, southwesterly winds will increase slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Conditions will become hotter and drier through the remainder of the work week, with critical RH across lower elevations. By Friday, monsoon moisture will return, producing higher humidities and chances for wetting rains.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.