textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A Pacific Northwest low will enter Utah and southwest Wyoming tonight, interacting with moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel and moving slowly across the area through Tuesday. This will bring another round of widespread precipitation with an elevated potential for flash flooding along with cooler temperatures and lowering snow levels, bringing accumulating mountain snow.

- Some outlying valleys, including the Cache Valley, may see freezing temperatures as early as Tuesday morning, with freezing temperatures becoming more widespread Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

- Conditions will steadily dry for the latter half of the week with a gradual warming trend in temperatures through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Seeing a very abnormally moisture rich airmass across Utah and southwest Wyoming this evening due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel, which have moved north of the area and are starting to phase with an elongated low currently over the Pacific Northwest. That system's associated cold front has nosed into northwest Utah, where some additional precipitation has started develop. Across the remainder of the forecast area, earlier widespread rain, heavy at times, has become much more scattered in nature and more focused over the higher terrain.

At least some showers from today's round of precipitation will persist overnight, but overall there should be a relative lull for much of the state during the overnight hours. The exception will be northwestern portions of the area seeing increasing coverage from the front. This round of precipitation will become more widespread during the day Monday as the low continues to move into the area, bringing increasing instability as it interacts with Rachel's moisture.

This low is not forecast to open up and thus is expected to slowly wobble across Utah and southwest Wyoming through Tuesday, bringing continued widespread precipitation, particularly for northern portions of the forecast area, as snow levels continue to lower, dropping to 8,000 feet or perhaps lower later Monday into Tuesday. Snow accumulations could be significant, but primarily confined to the highest terrain. Otherwise, this trough will be dropping high water totals in areas that have been already saturated by the first round. Thus, the threat of flooding will remain elevated, with the Flood Watch remaining in effect across the vast majority of the area.

By early Wednesday, the center of the low is finally expected to move out of the forecast area. However, it will continue to be moving slowly so anticipate some showers to linger, particularly for eastern portions of the area. The cold temperatures associated with this low are expected to bring minimum temperatures down to or below freezing across some outlying valleys, including the Cache, possibly as early as Tuesday morning, with the potential increasing Wednesday and Thursday mornings as cloud cover decreases.

Drier air is finally expected to make its way back in beginning Thursday as broad ridging develops off the Pacific coat. This will bring a steady drying trend along with gradual warming. Maxes, expected to remain well below normal for much of the week, are currently expected to be near seasonal normals for the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION, Issued 623 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

KSLC...MVFR conditions are expected to continue at the SLC terminal in rain through between 03Z and 05Z. There is a 30 percent chance that the MVFR conditions will last longer than expected or other periods of MVFR conditions will develop overnight and into the morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with cigs predominately at or below 6000 feet AGL. Periods of showers will continue throughout the day Monday, bringing low chances of MVFR conditions in heavier showers. Northwest winds are expected to shift to the south between 08Z and 10Z, with a 20 percent chance of northwest winds lasting later than expected.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Widespread rain will continue over the airspace this evening before becoming more showery and focused over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming during the overnight hours. Showers will then become more widespread during the day Monday, lasting into the evening. VFR conditions will prevail, with MVFR conditions developing at times in the heavier rain. Gusty winds are switching to the north and weakening over northern portions of the airspace as winds stay gusty out of the south ahead of it. The front will track southeast overnight, with winds overall becoming less gusty.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 231 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Strong southwesterly winds will continue this afternoon and diminish tonight as the remnants of a tropical storm move across Utah trough this evening. Deep tropical moisture with this storm will also bring high chances of wetting rain across much of the area. Although the tropical remnants exit the area tonight into Monday, a slow moving storm system will interact with the moisture in place to continue to bring high wetting rain chances through at least early Wednesday. Also, by Monday night into Tuesday, snow levels will lower enough to result in generally accumulating snow over the higher terrain, with potentially significant accumulations above about 9000 feet in the Uintas and far Upper Cottonwoods. High pressure is expected to return late week bringing warmer and drier conditions. However, there is a less then 25 percent chance that the storm system will continue to linger over the area, which would maintain unsettled conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for UTZ101>131.

WY...None.