textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1011 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Locally or marginally critical fire weather conditions will continue through the week for areas of central, eastern, and southern Utah.

- Temperatures will continue to warm through next week, peaking early next week around 5 degrees above normal, with warm overnight lows as well.

- High-based convection across northern Utah/SW Wyoming will remain possible (~25% chance) through Friday with gusty winds the primary concern.

- Moisture increases early next week as a ridge sets up over the Four Corners region which could lead to diurnal convection across the area.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1011 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A mean trough remains in place over the western CONUS, keeping Utah under a southwesterly flow aloft. A weak embedded shortwave disturbance crossed southern Utah today while another grazed northwest Utah. The northern one was associated with more moisture and thus greater instability, which led to showers and thunderstorms once again over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Isolated wind gusts over 50 mph were noted from outflows, otherwise most showers trended on the weaker side with very minor amounts of precipitation. With the loss of daytime heating and as the aforementioned disturbances lift away from the area, the showers will continue to dissipate overnight.

The large-scale pattern will change little for Thursday and Friday, except the mean upstream trough will become increasingly less amplified. Weak disturbances will continue to ripple through Utah which, when combined with lingering midlevel moisture and associated instability, will produce additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Southwest flow looks to pick up slightly across southern Utah Thursday and Friday, which will lead to localized critical fire weather conditions.

By Saturday, the airmass will start to trend drier as the pattern becomes more zonal. Sunday through the first half of next week, high pressure will strengthen near the Four Corners area. This will lead to a period of increasingly warm conditions for the forecast area, as valley temperatures in the mid to upper 90s (100-105 in Lower Washington County and the Lake Powell area) will be common. The 19z NBM has a 40% chance of SLC reaching 100 degrees on Monday, and a 20-25% chance Tuesday through Friday. Additionally, some modest midlevel moisture will rotate into the area during the first half of next week, with PWATs in the 0.6-0.7 range. This could lead to some high-based, generally terrain- based diurnal convection, but deeper moisture has yet to make an appearance in the model forecast through the next 7 days.

AVIATION, Issued 1011 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Southerly winds return around 05Z and are then expected to prevail through 18-20Z at which time northwest winds return. There is around a 10% chance high based convection develops nearby and produces gusty outflow winds, which would carry potential for prolonged southerly winds or a period of variability. Mid and upper level VFR cloud cover persists.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Outflow may result in some continued variability at northern terminals for a period, but otherwise expect typical diurnal winds to largely prevail at area TAF sites. For northern terminals (especially in SW WY, or near the ID border), there is around a 10-20% chance high based convection results in gusty and erratic outflow winds Thursday afternoon. Areawide, mid to upper level VFR cloud cover expected to persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Breezy southwesterly winds with critically dry conditions across southern and eastern Utah will yield locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Across northern Utah, isolated convection developing this afternoon will be capable of producing dry lightning strikes and gusty outflow winds. High pressure begins to develop across the western US on Friday, yielding lighter winds areawide but continued dry conditions. Another round of afternoon convection is possible across far northern Utah, with similar concerns for dry lightning and outflow winds. High pressure will continue to amplify through the weekend, resulting in very dry conditions and poor overnight recoveries with gradually increasing temperatures across the state into early next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.