textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will bring much colder temperatures to the entire region. While any precipitation will change to snow across most valleys, any travel impacts will be minimal across the Wasatch Front.

- Accumulating snow will impact the higher summits of the I-15 corridor from Scipio to Cedar City Thursday evening into Thursday night.

- Strong northerly winds, with gusts up to 65 mph, will occur across lower Washington County near canyons Thursday night into Friday morning including towns such as Hurricane, La Verkin, Toquerville, Virgin and Shivwits.

- Very cold nighttime temperatures will occur across all Utah valleys above 3000 feet through Saturday. Temperatures this cold can freeze sprinkler systems and cause widespread fruit orchard blossom death. Consider re-winterizing sprinkler systems to avoid property damage.

DISCUSSION

A few things for the upcoming storm have increased toward high confidence. The first, it will get very cold behind this front across the entire region. The majority of the ensemble members have shifted toward a drier, quicker precipitation event for this cold front for the bulk of northern Utah. And finally, that given the strong cold air advection, a significant high wind event is increasing in probability for lower Washington County near Black Ridge Canyon and across the Beaver Dam Mountains.

A strong cold front will shift across the region Thursday morning into Thursday evening. This front will reach the Salt Lake City area around 8 to 10 AM, which is significantly earlier than yestesrday's runs. The bulk of the guidance has also shifted toward a short period of precipitation with the front. The 13Z NBM suggests a less than 20% chance of 1 inch of snow across the Wasatch Front valley floors, around 50% for the benches. This earlier time also significantly reduces the potential for impact with this snow, given full insolation and warm surfaces.

The northern mountains have also trended lower with snowfall potential, now with a less than 15% chance of seeing 9 inches or more in 24 hours.

The one area where snowfall may become more impactful is the I-15 corridor from near Scipio to Cedar City, particularly the higher summits. The combination of northerly flow and orographics will support a period of snow from late afternoon into the first half of the overnight period Thursday. There is a 60% chance snowfall totals will exceed 2 inches by 3 AM Friday, particularly between Kanosh and Beaver. Those with travel plans on I-15 during this time should be prepared for winter driving conditions.

No winter headlines are needed at this time. Will monitor the lake effect snow threat across Salt Lake and Tooele Counties Thursday night as the HREF shows around a 20% chance of more than 2 inches of snow across Erda, Stansbury Park and the far western Salt Lake Valley.

With strong cold air advection, strong gap winds will occur near north-south canyons in lower Washington County after 9 PM Thursday through at least 6 AM Friday. There was a 90% chance of wind gusts in excess of 58 mph in the 12Z HREF in this area, including Toquerville, La Verkin, Hurricane, Virgin, and the area near the Beaver Dam Mountains including Shivwits. Issued a High Wind Watch for this area...to ensure this signal remains as robust in the next set of model runs.

Very cold temperatures are a near certainty, with almost all areas above 3000 feet falling to below freezing overnight each night through at least Saturday. Freeze Warnings are in effect. Those who have turned their sprinkler systems on for the spring should consider draining and/or rewinterizing to prevent property damage.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Breezy south to southwest winds prevail across Utah and southwest Wyoming through the remainder of the day today, with peak gusts between 20 and 30kts. Low to mid-level cloud cover will increase across the area through the evening alongside increasing chances for rain showers across the northern terminals, especially after 03Z. Coverage of rain/snow will increase through the morning on Thursday as a cold front moves into the region.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Freeze Warning from 8 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129-130.

Freeze Warning from 8 PM Friday to noon MDT Saturday for UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129-130.

High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for UTZ123.

WY...None.