textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will cross northern Utah Saturday afternoon and evening bringing a slight chance for thunderstorms. Strong west winds will accompany this front across much of northern and central Utah.

- Anomalously strong high pressure will build into the West for much of next week, with temperatures averaging near 20 to 30 degrees above normal during the latter half of the week. High temperatures will challenge all time monthly records for March beginning Thursday.

DISCUSSION

With a lot of weather to prepare for in the next 24-36 hours, this discussion will be somewhat abbreviated. Afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates northwest flow remains across the region, with the next shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest.

This upper level trough will shift south and east into the Central Rockies by early Sunday. Looking at the NAEFS anomalies, 500mb and 700mb flow with this trough is either at the 99.5th percentile compared to climatology or outside the climatology across northern and central Utah. 500mb will exceed 100kts.

Timing on the cold front varies among ensemble members, but the most probable timing is crossing through northern Utah after 3 PM, reaching central Utah after 5 PM. Near and behind the front, very strong winds can be expected, especially for the Great Salt Lake Desert, Uinta County, WY, western Uinta Mountains, western Uinta Basin, Castle Country, the Book Cliffs, the Wasatch Plateau, and the central mountains. High Wind Warnings are now in effect for these locations. Strong cross winds will impact the Fremont Junction area...so those with travel through this area Saturday evening into Sunday morning should use caution.

A portion of the ensemble members (around 50%) also support wind gusts to 60-65 mph across northern Utah County. Decided given lower confidence to issue a High Wind Watch for this location and allow the next shift to see another run of guidance before deciding between a wind advisory or a high wind warning.

As far as the rest of the Wasatch Front, Tooele Valley, and Cache Valley, gusts up to 55 mph are the most likely outcome, though per usual areas south and east of the Great Salt Lake may see enhanced winds.

It should be noted with very strong mid-level flow and high-based convection, momentum transfer of strong flow is also a possibility, which may bring wind gusts in excess of 55 mph to the advisory area across the Wasatch Front.

Moving further south, a high wind watch is also in effect for lower Washington County for gap winds after midnight Saturday night into Sunday.

The weather gets a whole lot quieter after Sunday morning, with the increasing probability for a historic heat wave (for this time of year) Wednesday into the weekend. Records will fall, potentially even monthly record. If you have outdoor plans, particularly in the lower elevations of southern Utah, plan for temperatures to be more like May than March. Heat safety guidelines such as carrying enough water will be even more important.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Winds will become largely light and terrain-driven overnight, increasing out of the west by mid-morning, particularly across higher terrain and N-UT/SW-WY. VFR conditions will prevail, though BLDU chances/reduced VIS will increase Saturday afternoon. Winds will be very strong Saturday afternoon and evening out of the northwest as a cold front moves through...potentially exceeding 35-60kts in many locations.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...High Wind Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ101.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for UTZ102>105-107.

High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for UTZ106.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM to 6 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ110.

High Wind Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ112-113-117.

High Wind Warning from noon Saturday to 3 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ114-120.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for UTZ121.

High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for UTZ123.

WY...High Wind Warning from 10 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for WYZ021.