textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms are expected across southwestern and northeastern Utah this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorms across southwestern Utah.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur across central and southern Utah Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1014 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

After an active week of monsoon moisture drier air is beginning to push into the area for the weekend. A few storms near the Idaho border continue to push to the east and weaken. These will dissipate later this evening with a much quieter pattern developing.

A ridge will stay centered over the southern Great Plains through early next week with a light west/southwest flow aloft and lower PWATs signaling the monsoon moisture tap has been weakened. Given the widespread precipitation that has fallen over the last week there remains some low level moisture near the surface that will help to initiate some diurnal convection over the next several days primarily across terrain, but even this remains <20% chance of occurrence. Temperatures will gradually start to warm this weekend, but still remain 5-8 degrees below normals for this time of year.

The most notable synoptic feature over the next week will come in the form of a shortwave moving through the PNW and upper Intermountain West on Tuesday. Current guidance keeps us far enough away from the wave to limit convection to the furthest northern portions of the CWA, but the pressure gradient will increase southwesterly winds on Tuesday.

High pressure starts to build into the Four Corners by midweek next week with a 598dm ridge centered over the west by the end of next week. The positioning of this is still a bit uncertain with some guidance have this centered over eastern Nevada and others having it over the Four Corners. The placement of this axis will dictate how much moisture we can advect back into the area. But this ridge will bring a return to above normal temperatures.

AVIATION, Issued 1043 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

An outflow boundary is expected to track over the KSLC terminal between 0600-0615Z, bringing a northwesterly wind shift with sustained speeds to 15kts. Northwest winds will remain in place through around 08Z before returning to a southerly flow through the remainder of the night. Lower clouds with CIGs around 5kft AGL will accompany the passage of the boundary, clearing shortly thereafter. North winds resume around 19-20Z on Saturday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected areawide through the valid TAF period. An outflow boundary will push through the northern half of the Wasatch Front through around 07Z, bringing northwesterly winds from about KBMC southward through the Utah/ Salt Lake County line. Elsewhere, terrain driven flows are expected through the night. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to be much more isolated on Saturday afternoon, with cells confined to southwest and northeast Utah.

FIRE WEATHER

Much drier conditions will build into the region today as high pressure shifts eastward. Expect humidities to decrease through midweek across all locations, reaching critical levels for the valleys as early as Sunday. A system moving across the northern Intermountain Region will bring an increased threat of gusty winds...with elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday across central and southern Utah.

Outside of isolated thunderstorms across mainly the higher terrain, there is little threat of wetting rains over the next seven days.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.