textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1229 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this afternoon and early evening for the northern half of Utah and portions of eastern Utah with a marginal risk for severe storms.

- Dry and stable pattern through the remainder of the week with some moisture across far southeastern Utah.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1229 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

This morning's stratiform rain has pushed out of northern Utah and clearing skies are starting to erode the stable airmass that was left in place after this morning's rain. Convection is ongoing across portions of southeastern Utah where shear is maximized. 30-50 kt shear will gradually overspread the area and with the center of this upper level low just to our west thunderstorms will start to blossom this afternoon across the northern half of Utah and portions of eastern Utah. SPC has issued a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across this area with the highest risk being for a couple of locations seeing wind gusts in the 60-75 mph range in addition to some small hail, brief heavy rain, and frequent lightning. The storm motion will remain fast with these storms which will help limit the flash flood potential to areas that experience training thunderstorms.

Guidance pushes all of this convection out of the CWA by 04Z with a dry and stable pattern remaining in it's wake, aside from southeastern Utah. Very seasonal conditions with near normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the weekend across a majority of Utah as tropical moisture flows into New Mexico and Colorado. This moisture will be close enough to southeastern Utah to keep isolated diurnal convection possible across that area over the next couple of days.

With a lot of tropical activity in the eastern Pacific and southwesterly flow in advance of approaching troughs we will need to monitor the threat for flash flooding with our next approaching trough. Guidance is showing the next trough arriving early next week, but ensemble members are not in agreement on the timing and placement of the trough. 23% of members bring most of this moisture into Utah early next week while the remaining members are a mix between keeping this moisture to the east or having a lower amount of moisture impacting the CWA.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions prevail through the rest of the TAF period as showers continue to move out of the area, leaving behind gradually clearing skies through Wednesday morning. Light northwesterly winds are expected to transition to the southeast after around 05z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers and thunderstorms currently across far northern Utah and southwest Wyoming will continue to track northeastward out of the region through late tonight. These storms may bring lowered CIGS/VIS to MVFR briefly at KLGU and KEVW through around 03z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period as skies gradually clear overnight. Outside of storms, winds remain generally light with typical diurnal shifts.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1229 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

An area of low pressure centered over Utah today will keep unsettled weather across Utah today. Thunderstorms are starting to develop across central and eastern Utah and this trend will continue into northern Utah as the day progresses. These storms will be capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts along with small hail, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rain. These storms will be moving fast from south to north so that will limit the flash flooding threat to areas that experience multiple storms over the same location.

This activity quickly wraps up this evening and a dry and stable pattern will settle into the region for the remainder of the week. The one exception to this will be across southeastern Utah where some isolated diurnal thunderstorms will remain possible Wednesday and Thursday. Guidance is starting to show signs of more tropical moisture impacting the area early next week with another trough, but confidence remains low regarding timing and details.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.