textproduct: Salt Lake City

DISCUSSION, Issued 1048 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A weak shortwave is currently moving through the area. This is evident by some convection currently moving into northwestern Utah. This activity will remain weak and isolated through the overnight hours and into tomorrow. This will also bring temperatures down about 5 degrees compared to where they were today. This shortwave will continue to shift east with some isolated convection still possible across the Uinta basin and surrounding terrain on Wednesday afternoon. Dry and stable conditions settle back into the area through the remainder of the week and into the first part of the weekend.

Guidance continues to trend towards the wetter solution with ~75% of ensemble members supporting a trough sliding out of British Columbia and into the PNW before phasing with tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Tropical in the eastern Pacific and bringing widespread precipitation to most of the CWA. Ahead of this trough, southerly winds will start to increase on Saturday and remain elevated through Sunday before a cold front moves through and transitions the winds to a north and westerly component. There is still ~25% of the members that keep the track of the trough more continental in nature where it doesn't pull in the tropical moisture.

Of the 75% of the wetter members, a majority of them keep a prolonged period of widespread precipitation starting Saturday night and lasting through early Wednesday as the trough becomes cutoff from the northern stream and spins across Utah. Snow levels will start between 11,500-12,000 feet elevation before gradually dropping down a couple thousand feet lower in elevation. Mean 700mb temps are ~1C with the coldest solutions down to -9C by Tuesday which could be cold enough to support some snow down to valley floors, but this solution is very much the outlier. High elevation mountain snow could be substantial given widespread QPF amounts 1-2" with some models showing 3"+ across the higher terrain of the Uintas.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period with persistent mid-to-high level cloud coverage. Winds remain generally light out of the southeast this morning before transitioning northwesterly around 18z. A period of gusty easterly winds may develop between 00-03z due to outflow winds from convective activity across the Wasatch.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all regional terminals through the TAF period with persistent mid to high level cloud coverage, especially across the northern portion of the airspace. Winds remain generally light and diurnally driven, outside of gusty and erratic outflow winds 30-35 kts associated with showers and thunderstorms developing along the higher terrain this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 405 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A weak storm system traversing the region will result in enough instability this for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop. Coverage will favor northwest Utah this morning, before developing across the higher terrain across much of the state this afternoon. Storms will be mostly dry, with potential to produce dry microbursts with gusts between 40-50 mph. High pressure redevelops across the western US through Friday, keeping conditions dry and mild areawide before a potent weather system digging into the Great Basin this weekend brings much cooler and wetter weather into early next week. Potential for widespread wetting rains associated with this system has increased with recent guidance.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.