textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1213 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of central, southern, northeast UT, and southwest WY each afternoon within this forecast as monsoonal moisture continues making its way north. Chances and coverage increase for northern UT starting Friday.

- The risk for flash flooding exists across the majority of the forecast area, highlighted by WPC with a Marginal Risk (1/4) of exceeding flash flood guidance. A Slight Risk (2/4) has been introduced starting tomorrow for southwest UT, then extending across the entirety of southern UT on Friday.

- A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for southern UT and portions of Central UT starting tomorrow afternoon, ending around midnight. This watch may be extended as more forecast guidance comes in.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1213 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Large-scale ridging persists across much of the forecast area with monsoonal moisture advecting across the area beneath it. Despite weak flow aloft, thunderstorms are forecast to develop each day across the forecast area given persistent monsoonal moisture in place raising PWATs across most lower elevation locations to around 1-1.5". Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along higher terrain before propagating along existing instability axes as they generate a strong cold pool.

Regarding the flooding threat, todays environment yields another day of conditional flooding given weaker instability across southern and central UT. CAPE values on the order of 500-750J/kg are forecast to overspread much of southern UT with warmer temperatures aloft yielding a "skinny" CAPE profile indicative of efficient rainmaking processes. However, the depth of the warm cloud layer remains modest, resulting in more isolated instances of heavier rainfall required for flash flooding. Regardless, the threat still exists as highlighted by the WPC outlining the majority of UT within a Marginal Risk (1/4) of exceeding flash flood guidance this afternoon.

For tomorrow and Friday's flash flood threat, dewpoints increase substantially across southern UT with widespread mid-upper 50s and potentially low 60s developing in the afternoon. This will serve to raise CAPE to around 750-1000J/kg and increasing overall storm coverage in the afternoon. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate a modest increase in warm-cloud layer depth, potentially enhancing rain rates and thus increasing the flash flood threat across southern UT tomorrow afternoon. Lastly, given weak upper level flow, storm motions across CAMs are quite slow around 1-3kts which would yield a flash flood threat with any storm that remains near- stationary over problematic basins or burn scars. As such, the WPC has outlined portions of southwest UT in a Slight Risk (2/4) of exceeding flash flood guidance. Dewpoints continue to increase further into the lower 60s across southwest UT and into the upper 50s across southeast UT, potentially yielding a more widespread threat Friday afternoon. Some uncertainty exist on Friday regarding cloud cover which may inhibit convective development further east which will be monitored with upcoming forecast products.

The monsoonal pattern looks to continue through the remainder of the forecast period and potentially beyond as ridging remains situated over the western US amidst continual moisture return across the Southwest. Finer details will continue to be ironed out, though the daily flash flood threat appears to continue for quite some time across much of southern and central UT.

AVIATION

KSLC...Northerly winds are expected to become easterly from vicinity convective outflow between 02-04z, returning to typical diurnal southeasterlies between 04-05z. Scattered mountain storms should be winding down by sunset. Any developing cigs from these storms will likely remain above 8kft through the evening hours.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Afternoon convection and corresponding potential for gusty erratic outflow winds will be winding down by sunset. EVW and CDC may experience lingering vicinity storms coming off nearby terrain. Diurnal winds and lifting cigs are expected after these storms move through. The afternoon convective pattern will continue for most terminals tomorrow, accompanied by gusty outflow winds.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1216 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Currently, monsoonal moisture continues to surge north into UT raising chances for showers and thunderstorms across the state and humidities, both serving to moderate fire weather conditions. Once again, chances for showers and thunderstorms (60- 80%) remain highest east of the I-15 corridor across southern and central UT as well as the Uintas. These locations are also where chances of a wetting rain are favored, though generally highest across higher terrain. While chances for showers and thunderstorms generally remain low across the remainder of northern UT and the West Desert today and tomorrow, chances increase throughout the remainder of the week as monsoonal moisture continues to increase further north with time, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to the whole state.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for UTZ121>131.

WY...None.