textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1210 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Increasing moisture over southern Utah will bring a round of high based showers and dry thunderstorms this afternoon. By Sunday this moisture will allow for a better chance of showers and thunderstorms capable of wetting rainfall across southern Utah, with isolated high based showers and dry thunderstorms further north.

- Hot and very dry conditions will return early next week as high pressure builds into the region. Widespread valley HeatRisk values in the moderate range are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Gusty northwest winds combined with these hot and very dry conditions will bring a threat for critical fire weather across areas east of I-15 during the middle portion of next week.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1210 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A general zonal flow remains in place across the forecast early this afternoon, around the periphery of a broad longwave trough extending across much of Canada. A very dry airmass remains in place across northern and central Utah where daytime temperatures will run near to slightly above climo again this afternoon. Further south, mid level moisture has spread into central Utah where PW values have increased above .50", while surface dew points remain in the 30s to low 40s. This has allowed high based convection to initiate across the southern mountains, and this area should expand and spread east/south over the next few hours with dry lightning and strong microburst winds the main threats. Another round of convection is forecast to develop across southern NV and spread into southwest UT this evening, and as the airmass continues to moisten this activity will have a greater chance to produce wetting rain (>= 0.10"), and perhaps an instance or two of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall this evening.

Increasing moisture across southern Utah overnight into the day Sunday will help fuel another round of showers and thunderstorms mainly south of I-70/Highway 50. With elevated boundary layer moisture these storms will have a better chance for producing wetting rain, and a few instances of moderate to heavy rainfall with the stronger cells. Hi-res guidance suggests strong outflow will also be possible with these storms. On the northern edge of the moisture, convection across central Utah, and perhaps as far north as the Wasatch Plateau/western Uintas, will be higher based with isolated dry lightning but little rainfall.

High pressure off the Pacific Coast will gradually build inland during the early to middle portion of next week, bringing a return to hot and very dry conditions. Daytime temperatures in lower elevations of southern Utah will exceed 105F Tuesday and Wednesday which may be enough to consider heat headlines. With the ridge axis largely remaining just upstream, northwest flow will likely bring critical fire weather conditions to areas east of I-15 where fuels are sufficiently dry as early as Monday afternoon, but more likely Tuesday and Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday this ridge looks to break down with southwest flow developing across the eastern Great Basin. Depending on how this plays out, the critical fire weather threat may expand into western Utah while temperatures across the forecast area trend a little cooler.

AVIATION, Issued 1210 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KSLC, Issued 1210 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026... Gusty northwest winds will continue at the terminal through 00-01Z. Expect winds to become variable and light after 03-04Z, occasionally shifting to light easterly. North to northwest winds will re-establish around 14-16Z Sunday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...High-based showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of central and southern Utah mainly south of I-70 through 06-09Z tonight. The highest threat of convection will be for terminals south of a line from roughly Cedar City to Torrey to Green River through 02Z. Gusty and erratic microburst winds in excess of 40 mph will occur near stronger thunderstorms. Another round of showers and thunderstorms, with a threat of heavier rain will impact Iron, Washington, Kane and Garfield Counties through 06-09Z tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

High based showers and dry thunderstorms will continue across southern Utah into the evening hours. West of I-15 showers and thunderstorms moving out of Nevada will be capable of producing wetting rain this evening across zones 495, 497, and perhaps western portions of zone 496. Meanwhile areas further north will remain dry and mild through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

Moisture will increase across southern Utah Sunday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms across southern Utah. Wetting rain will be likely with these storms along with lightning and gusty outflow winds. North of I-70, isolated high based showers and dry thunderstorms will impact mainly the higher terrain of central and perhaps northern Utah Sunday afternoon.

High pressure will build into the region for much of next week bringing a return to hot and very dry conditions. By Tuesday daytime RH will fall into the single digits across most low-mid elevations, with poor overnight recovery below 30 percent. This high will remain centered to the west of the area through midweek, resulting in gusty northwest winds across areas east of I-15 as early as Monday afternoon, but more likely and widespread Tuesday and Wednesday. These winds coupled with the hot and very dry conditions will result in critical fire weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday anywhere fuels are sufficiently dry east of I-15.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ494-496-498.

WY...None.