textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1034 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Drier air spreading into southwest Utah will limit convection across southern Utah on Tuesday, with isolated to scattered convection developing again across northern Utah. Moisture will increase again on Wednesday, bringing an increased threat of flash flooding across central and southern Utah, before decreasing substantially from Thursday onward. - Significant heat temporarily and marginally subsides from Tuesday through Thursday before increasing in intensity once again by Friday onward. High temperatures will only moderate to the upper-90s on the Wasatch Front and mid-100s in the lowest elevations of southern Utah before increasing by upwards of 5-7 degrees over the weekend.

DISCUSSION, Issued 128 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

While a drier air mass spreads over central and southern Utah today, significant moisture remains in place over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. As such, isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through the remainder of the day across the central and southern area while the northern area is expected to see continued scattered shower and thunderstorm development. With moisture and instability in place across northern Utah, primary threats associated with developing thunderstorms will be heavy rainfall, small hail, and frequent lightning. These threats will be notably lower across the southern half of the area. That said, models indicate a shortwave trough lifting into the region from Arizona this evening, which may act to provide enough lift into the region to support the development of showers and thunderstorms in south-central Utah from late this afternoon through around midnight.

As our area of high pressure repositions itself nearly overhead over the next several days, a drier airmass will shift into place and allow for shower and thunderstorm potential to decrease significantly, with only isolated showers anticipated by Thursday, then a near zero percent chance area wide by Friday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase slightly into early next week as moisture fills into the center of the area of high pressure, but even then chances remain at, or below, 20 percent.

The more noteworthy impact associated with this area of high pressure shifting overhead will be the imminent associated heat building back into the region. From roughly Thursday through Saturday, temperatures are expected to increase day after day, leading to increasing heat risk across Utah and southwest Wyoming. Current forecast trends place high temperatures back into the low-100s across the lower elevation northern Utah valleys by Friday and into the upper-100s to low-110s across southern Utah's lower elevation valleys (namely lower Washington County and the Glen Canyon area). To add insult to injury with these hot temperatures (about 10 degrees above average), overnight low temperatures are only expected to fall to the low- to mid-70s for the northern Utah low lying valleys (i.e. Wasatch Front) and into the upper-70s to low-80s for southern Utah valleys. As such, the risk for heat related illness will increase from Friday through at least Sunday across all of Utah.

Increasingly active northern stream energy across the PacNW and northern Rockies region early next week may bring relief from heat for the northern areas by Monday while the southern and central area remains locked into the center of the high pressure. If enough energy organizes and a deep enough shortwave trough can scrape by northern Utah, we may begin to look at smoke impacts advecting into the region from the ongoing fires in the Columbia Basin. More to come on this as we move forward as there is some uncertainty in this portion of the forecast, but it's something to pay attention to as we head into the weekend.

AVIATION... KSLC

VFR conditions prevail overall at the terminal through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms developing along the high terrain have an increased chance of impacting the terminal until about 00z, with current prob30 likely to become a tempo within that period, and a 30% chance of another round of storms between 07- 10z. The main impact from showers and thunderstorms through these timeframes includes gusty and erratic outflow winds, with gusts to 30 kts possible at times. Northerly winds are expected to ooze into the terminal around 20z, with a 40% chance of southwesterlies instead until around 21z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all regional terminals through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern and south-central Utah as well as southwest Wyoming between 20z-09z, with potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds with gusts upwards of 30-40 kts. Otherwise, winds remain generally light, following typical diurnal patterns across the airspace.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 128 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A quick drying of the environment is expected today, with afternoon minimum humidity falling into the low- to mid-teens across the lower lying valley ares of western, southern, and eastern Utah. That said, moisture lingering overhead will bring another day of isolated thunderstorms over central and southern Utah, with northern Utah expected to see greater coverage due to higher moisture availability. Moisture is anticipated to surge northward on Wednesday, allowing for a moisture increase along the mountains running parallel with I-15 and areas east. This increase in moisture is also expected to bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the state, with primary risks being heavy rainfall and frequent lightning with developing thunderstorms.

A significant drying of the air mass over Utah is expected through the late week as an area of high pressure shifts its position. While isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible over the high terrain across Utah on Thursday, humidity is anticipated to begin falling back into the single digits to low- teens across almost the entire state for all elevations. Alongside this drying trend, temperatures are expected to rise by another 5 to 10 degrees across the region. These hot and dry conditions will be maintained across Utah through at least Sunday, with some potential relief in northern Utah by Monday. That relief, however, comes with the introduction of a weak area of low pressure which will help to bring an increase in southwest winds across a portion of northern and central Utah, potentially by Sunday. As such, the increase in winds pairing with the hot and dry conditions will bring an uptick in fire weather conditions across the western half of the area. More to come on this as models come into better agreement.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.