textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1102 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- A monsoon surge will continue to bring the threat of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, with the highest threat across southern Utah, through the weekend and into at least early next week. - A Flood Watch for flash flooding is in effect for Friday afternoon and evening for southwest and south central Utah. Additional Flood Watches may be needed for Saturday in this area.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1102 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Utah remains under a southerly flow aloft, with abundant moisture continuing to spread into the forecast area. Latest PWAT analysis shows over 1.2 inches across much of Utah, with up to 1.5 inches across far southwest Utah. The pattern will remain similar for Friday before the high pressure expands into Utah over the weekend. This will then either maintain weak flow overhead and trap moisture in place, or westerlies start to increase which would bring a very brief and slight drying trend. Southerly flow looks to return early next week, with moisture increasing once again.

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon were efficient in producing rainfall, with pockets of over 1.5 inches of rain per radar estimates. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to linger through at least midnight, with isolated showers potentially hanging on through much of the night. For Friday, the abundant moisture will once again produce areas of heavy rain. However, southwest Utah looks to have a bit less instability compared to today, while northern Utah will see slightly greater instability. This would suggest that southern Utah will be just a slight bit less active overall, while northern Utah may be a bit more active with a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Salt Lake, Tooele, and Utah Valleys. That said, the flash flood threat remains intact, especially over recent burn scars and prone areas such as slot canyons, normally dry washes, and areas of steep terrain across southern Utah. A Flood Watch remains in place for southwest and south-central Utah for Friday.

AVIATION...KSLC

Light southerly winds will be maintained over the KSLC terminal through the morning hours, transitioning to a northwest flow after 19-20Z. Vicinity showers are expected to build over the high terrain around 21Z forward, introducing potential for southerly outflow winds. There is around a 30-40% chance that showers/ thunderstorms move off the terrain and over the airfield after 22Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, however, any showers moving over the area may drop VIS to the MVFR category.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Another day of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected across Utah and southwest Wyoming, with cells first building over the high terrain, then drifting in adjacent valley areas through the afternoon. Gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with any storms, as well as heavy rainfall which may reduce VIS to 5SM or less. Outside of any outflows, winds are expected to be generally light and terrain driven.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 414 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Monsoonal moisture remains steadfast over Utah, and will continue to bring diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity over Utah's high terrain features. Like clockwork, storms are expected to initialize over the mountains around 1200, and will persist into the evening hours, bringing the threat of frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty outflow winds. With generally light winds overhead, storms will remain anchored to the terrain for the first hour or two of convection, drifting off terrain into adjacent valley areas through the afternoon hours. In addition to the increased daily shower and thunderstorm potential, areawide minimum humidity will bottom out around the 30-40 percent mark, with the northwest low lying areas reaching as low as 20-25 percent. Overnight humidity recoveries are expected to be good to excellent. This trend is expected to continue through the next seven days, and potentially beyond... so long as the monsoonal moisture remains in place.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for UTZ122>128.

WY...None.