textproduct: Salt Lake City

UPDATE

Updated the key messages, fire weather discussion and aviation discussion based on current model/forecast trends. Previous discussion follows.

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to record heat expected through Wednesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across southwestern Utah Wednesday afternoon and evening. Fire Weather Watches remain in effect for portions of southwestern Utah.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is outlooked across portions of northern Utah and southwestern Wyoming Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a 5-14% chance of wind gusts in excess of 58 mph near any thunderstorms.

- Another round of critical fire weather conditions may occur ahead of another cold front Saturday afternoon and evening across southwestern Utah.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM MDT Monday May 11, 2026

An anomalously strong ridge currently overhead will continue to amplify through Tuesday, which will yield some of the warmest temperatures of the year tomorrow afternoon. Highs will once again challenge daily records across the region, with temperatures soaring around 20 degrees above seasonal normals. Avoid strenuous outdoor activity if possible, and be sure to have a way to keep cool during this anomalous warmth.

A shift in the pattern from persistent heat and bone-dry conditions is still expected mid-week as a shortwave trough digging into the PacNW shunts the ridge eastward. This will introduce stronger southwesterly flow across the region Wednesday, resulting in widespread afternoon wind gusts between 25-40 mph across Utah and southwest Wyoming. Strongest winds are expected across the West Desert and portions of southwest Utah, which when combined with very low humidity, will produce a period of fire weather conditions across these areas. See the Fire Weather section below for additional information on this threat.

Mid-level moisture advection is expected on the backside of the exiting ridge on Wednesday, yielding a pretty substantial increase in PWATs across the region; PWAT anomalies across Utah and southwest Wyoming peak around 125-150% of normal by Wednesday afternoon. Concurrently, the aforementioned PacNW shortwave trough is expected to brush northern Utah on Wednesday afternoon, and when coupled with intense daytime heating will produce sufficient forcing for scattered high-based convection. Convection may develop first across the high terrain, but coverage is expected to expand northeast through the afternoon. Early high- res model data indicates a very favorable environment across central and northern Utah (including the Wasatch Front) for both strong to severe wind gusts given DCAPE values around 1400-1600 J/kg, as well as small hail given substantial shear and high mid- level lapse rates.

Thunderstorm activity wanes across the region late Wednesday as a drier airmass quickly moves in behind the shortwave. Cooler conditions prevail on Thursday behind the exiting system, with temperatures moderating closer to seasonal normals across the region. More zonal flow is expected to develop across the western US on Friday, allowing temperatures to rise back to around 10 degrees above average areawide. More uncertainty in the forecast exists this weekend as models work out the evolution of another trough moving into the northwest. Still around 80% of ensemble members show a drier solution that would only knock temperatures down slightly for the weekend, but there is still 20% that show a much stronger cooldown with better chances for precipitation.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry and stable conditions with clear skies will continue with light and diurnally driven winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Very dry conditions will continue across the region today with another round of near record to record high temperatures expected. As a disturbance approaches the region Wednesday, a combination of increasing southwesterly winds up to 45 mph and continued very low humidities will bring critical fire weather conditions to southwestern Utah. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for fire weather zones 495, 496, and 497.

As a cold front approaches northwestern Utah Wednesday afternoon and evening, isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms will develop across much of the region. Expect strong, gusty microburst winds up to 60 mph near any of these thunderstorms along with lightning.

The cold front will cross the state Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, bringing the most pronounced cooling on order of 15 degrees or so across northern Utah, around 5 degrees closer to the Arizona border. Dry conditions will build into the state behind this system Thursday, with temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Friday. Another cold front will cross the state Saturday, bringing the potential for another round of critical fire weather conditions to southwestern Utah Saturday afternoon and evening.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for UTZ495>497.

WY...None.