textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

-Gusty winds across northern terrain ridgelines, SW Wyoming, and across the western Uinta Basin will peak this afternoon.

-Temperatures warm back above normal by the end of the week with another similarly mostly dry front on Saturday.

-Confidence is increasing regarding a large ridge developing across the west with near record high temperatures resulting.

DISCUSSION

A mid level cloud deck is moving into northern Utah as a mostly dry cold front pushes through the area. This front will bring little in the way of precipitation. The latest CAMs are completely void of any precipitation within our area. The most noticeable change with this front will be temperatures dropping back to near normal across the north with still slightly above normal further south. West/northwest winds behind the front will also be increasing, particularly across ridgetops of the northern mountains, southwest Wyoming, and the western Uinta Basin. A wind advisory has been issued for the western Uinta Basin for this afternoon/early evening as wind gusts approach 50 mph.

Winds will remain elevated across the aforementioned areas through the weekend. In fact, the EC EFI is highlighting the potential for even stronger winds across these areas Thursday-Saturday. NBM probs for winds 50+ mph peaks on Saturday, a result of the approaching front and tightening pressure gradient, with ~35% chance across southwest Wyoming and ~50% chance across the western Uinta Basin.

Ensemble members continue to converge on a mostly dry and warm solution going into next week as an anomalously strong ridge builds across the western CONUS. By early next week temperatures will approach the low 90s across lower Washington county with 70s for most valley locations areawide. There still does remain ~30% of ensemble members that keep the jet stream close enough to bring some moisture and clouds to the far northeastern CWA Monday/Tuesday that could keep temperatures in this area slightly cooler. But the trend in the guidance has been to bring the ridge axis into the Great Basin by middle to late week. NBM probs for temperatures reaching 80F for KSLC has gone up to ~60% by next Wednesday. There is also a ~30% chance of hot temperatures approaching 100F across lower Washington county during this same time. These would break all-time records. For instance, the earliest 80F on record for KSLC is 3/31.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions are expected across all terminals today under middle and high level cloud cover. Breezy northerly winds are expected across most northern terminals (especially those along and west of the I-15 corridor), with gusty southwest winds across the southern area becoming northerly as a cold front drops southward through the day. Strong winds are expected through much of the afternoon hours in the western Uinta Basin, with peak gusts around 40kts. Strong northerly winds will subside overnight.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ114.

WY...None.