textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall will continue across much of Utah through at least Friday. Expect an increased threat of flash flooding, primarily across slot canyons, normally dry washes, slick rock areas, and recent burn scars.

- Temperatures will decrease 10-15 degrees by the end of the week with slightly drier air pushing into the area by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

High pressure remains centered near the Four Corners region this evening. While westerly flow aloft is in place across the northern half of Utah, southerly flow across northern AZ and southern NV continue to facilitate the flow of moisture into the area. Latest analysis shows generally between 0.8-1.1 inches of PWAT across the forecast area. Isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the late evening hours before diminishing overnight.

For Tuesday, as moisture remains in place, expect scattered convection to develop again in the afternoon. Initial rounds of convection look to be tied to the higher terrain, then models suggest that remnants of the MCV currently over southern AZ could potentially rotate around the periphery of the high and lift north through portions of western Utah during the late afternoon through evening hours, then across northern Utah overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will be accompanied by the typical threats of flash flooding and gusty outflow winds.

The ridge axis is progged to shift east for the middle to latter part of the week. This will bring more of a southwesterly flow to the area which will start spreading some drier air into the area, with PWATs gradually decreasing, especially Thursday into the weekend. However, a shortwave trough which is progged to eject across northwest Utah on Thursday will provide sufficient lift that will interact with lingering low-level moisture to result in more widespread convection, with some added shear to result in potentially stronger storms.

Models then hint at the drying trend continuing into next week as the ridge axis shifts over Utah. This is supported by various EC and CMC ensemble members, although the GFS keeps the ridge axis farther east with higher PWATs remaining in place over Utah.

AVIATION...KSLC

Southerly winds will continue at the terminal through the night, though a brief period of east-southeast winds may occur through midnight. Tuesday afternoon, expect a wind shift to northwest around 19z, but winds will be gusty and erratic at times, due to showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions generally prevail for most terminals, though MVFR VIS may develop briefly under heavy rainfall. Outside of outflow winds up to 40 mph, winds remain generally light and diurnally driven through the TAF period. Smoke will continue to reduce visibility at times near Henefer, Richfield, Fillmore, St. George and Cedar City as well as between Ephraim and Huntington due to wildfires in the area.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1249 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The monsoon pattern remains in place for the remainder of the week. This moisture will primarily be focused across the southern 2/3rds of the area through midweek before a trough moving in from the west helps to develop more convection across the north Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will also decrease by 10-15 degrees by the end of the week. Nocturnal convection will be possible through the week, but details will likely remain uncertain on where and when until the day of any nocturnal activity as these features are usually based on how the convection evolves during the day.

This trough will bring slightly drier air to the region for this weekend which will reduce the flash flooding probabilities. It will also slightly increase southwesterly winds Thursday and Friday, but the magnitude of these winds currently look to remain below 30 mph.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.