textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1242 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening, with the greatest chance for gusty outflow winds expected over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.

- Daily afternoon thunderstorms will persist through much of the week, primarily over higher terrain. An isolated flash flood threat today will continue to trend lower.

- Another round of more widespread thunderstorms is increasing in likelihood for Friday into early next weekend.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1242 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Utah and southwest Wyoming remain on the western periphery of a fairly stagnant ridge centered over NM/CO, with a bit of lingering mid-level moisture resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The main threats will be a mix of gusty outflow winds and moderate-heavy rainfall, thus an isolated flash flood threat still exists. Compared to yesterday, there is a bit less shear and instability, thus the severe thunderstorm wind threat is lower. Still, storms will be capable of producing outflow winds in excess of 50-60 mph, particularly across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.

Tomorrow, as this mid-level moisture slowly decreases, shower activity will be lower, with a lower flash flood threat accordingly. Storms will largely form and remain over higher terrain through the week, though drier conditions on Thursday and maybe Friday could limit this potential.

Model guidance is trending towards some increase in moisture as early as Friday as southwesterly flow increases across the area. Deterministic guidance suggests a grazing shortwave trough potentially bringing a cold front as far south as northern Utah late this weekend, though ensemble guidance as a whole isn't as forward with the trough. If this does occur, this could increase the chances for severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and/or fire weather concerns, depending on how exactly it plays out and how much moisture increases across the area.

AVIATION, Issued 1242 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry conditions will continue through the early afternoon before isolated convection develops after 20z with ~40% chance of impacting the terminal. This activity becomes less convective and more showery overnight. Winds are expected to shift to northerlies between 19-20z, with a 20% chance of southwesterlies persisting a bit past 20z, aside from variable and gusty winds associated with precipitation near the terminal.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry conditions will persist through the early afternoon before more convection develops across most of the airspace. This activity will transition to more showery precipitation across the northern airspace overnight. Winds will remain light before becoming breezy out of the southwest this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will remain largely stagnant over the Four Corners through the week, with lingering moisture resulting in daily thunderstorms over higher terrain, despite a slow drying trend. Overnight RH recoveries will remain good through at least Wednesday, with daytime RH approaching critical across western valleys and far southern Utah (St. George through Lake Powell and up to Canyonlands). The driest days will likely be Thursday and potentially Friday, too.

Southwesterly winds will begin to increase towards the end of the week as a stronger low pressure system moves into the PNW. Model guidance is also trending towards an increase in moisture heading into the weekend, though uncertainty in the magnitude of this moisture still raises questions regarding fire weather concerns. Another wildcard is the potential for a grazing wave later this weekend which could produce a cold front moving through northern Utah. Forecast confidence remains very low at this time.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.