textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds and low relative humidity will create areas of critical fire weather conditions across southern Utah today and Friday.

- A significant widespread heatwave is expected to develop this weekend into early next week, with temperatures challenging daily, monthly, and even all-time high temperature records.

- Confidence continues to increase on monsoonal moisture spreading into the region by mid-next week, bringing an elevated threat for flash flooding across southern Utah through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring increasingly drier air into the region through the end of the work week, gradually limiting diurnal convective development through this period. However, lingering moisture across portions of central Utah will allow for one more round of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Environmental conditions will be favorable for storms developing this afternoon to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds, with gusts to 40-50 mph.

An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure builds overhead this weekend, yielding lighter winds, extremely dry conditions, and record-challenging heat. Guidance continues to highlight dangerous heat developing across all of Utah and southwest Wyoming this weekend, even lingering into early next week especially across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. With the ridge axis centered overhead on Saturday, highs climb above 100 for most valley locations, upwards of 110 across lower Washington County and the Glen Canyon area. Temperatures trend up further especially across northern Utah including the Wasatch Front and Cache Valley on Sunday as the ridge axis shifts slightly northeastward; this will be the temperature peak across the region. Highs on Sunday will not only challenge daily and monthly high temperature records, but all-time records as well. For example, KSLC currently has a 35% chance to meet or exceed the all-time record of 107 degrees. Logan is another standout, with an 80%+ chance to exceed its all-time record of 103 degrees. Increasing cloud cover early next week will moderate temperatures a few degrees, but overnight lows will remain elevated. Once lows reach the low-to-mid 70s for most valleys and low-80s for lower Washington County on Sunday morning, they will remain elevated through at least mid-week. This will limit any overnight relief, further exacerbating heat impacts. That said, high confidence in this significant, long- duration heatwave has prompted the issuance of an Extreme Heat Warning beginning Saturday for most lower valley locations.

Early next week, the pattern will favor southerly flow with increasing mid- level moisture along the western periphery of the trough. PWATs will gradually increase from the south through mid- week, becoming widespread >1" by Tuesday. This pattern looks to persist through the remainder of the week, which will support the development of widespread precipitation with an increased chance for flash flooding especially across southern Utah. Keep an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor plans next week as the days with highest flash flood threats still remain more uncertain.

AVIATION, Issued 1139 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

KSLC...Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over the Oquirrh Mountains after ~20-21z, but will likely stay south of the terminal through the afternoon. However, there is still a ~20% chance that a shower or thunderstorms does drift over the airfield before 02z. Gusty outflow winds are more likely to produce an impact, potentially resulting in a wind shift to gusty southerly/southwesterly winds as early as 23z (10% chance of exceeding 40kts briefly). Winds will become lighter and terrain- driven after 02z, becoming light and variable at times overnight.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 19-20z across portions of Utah north of I-70 and primarily along/south of KENV-KSLC-KEVW. These storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds generally 20-30kts, though stronger storms could result in gusts exceeding 45kts (10% chance). Winds could kick up some BLDU, resulting in temporary VIS reductions. Showers will likely diminish by 02z. Across southern Utah, breezy southwesterly winds are expected this afternoon with mostly clear skies.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40-50 mph are expected this afternoon, mainly across the high terrain of central and northern Utah. An increasingly dry airmass continues to build through this weekend, limiting convective development and resulting in very poor to virtually nonexistent overnight humidity recoveries across most of the state. Given already critically dry conditions in place, elevated afternoon southwesterly breezes across southern Utah will result in periods of critical fire weather conditions today and Friday. Winds are expected to become light this weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure develops across the Intermountain West. Temperatures will climb to near or above record values for many locations through the weekend. As the ridge shifts eastward slightly early next week, an influx of mid- level moisture will bring increasing cloud cover that will moderate temperatures slightly and result in a gradual increase in RH across the region.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ101>108-114-116-118>121.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ115-122-128>131.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ495-496-498.

Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to midnight MDT Friday night for UTZ495-496-498.

WY...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ021.