textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering instability will keep valley rain and mountain snow showers going into the evening before they diminish.

- As the associated shortwave continues across the Desert Southwest, additional showers will develop tomorrow, primarily focused over southern Utah, with generally light accumulations.

- High pressure will bring dry conditions for the upcoming weekend before a more active pattern returns beginning Monday as a series of storm systems impact the area.

DISCUSSION

A weakening storm system is centered over the Great Basin this afternoon, with the associated frontal boundary over southeast Utah. In an unstable airmass associated with this system, scattered showers have re-developed over Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon, primarily focused over the higher terrain. Accumulations have been generally light at best, with some pockets of graupel having been observed with some of the stronger cells. With the loss of daytime heating, these showers will tend to diminish during the evening. Behind the front, temperatures are running near to just above normal for this time of year.

As high pressure moves onshore along the Pacific coast, the Great Basin system will track across the Desert Southwest during the day Friday. This will bring another round of precipitation to the area, particularly during the afternoon hours. Precipitation will be primarily focused along the boundary of southeast Utah, but like today there will be enough moisture and instability for some scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers over the higher terrain with accumulations again staying on the light side.

There is high confidence that the Pacific ridge will move back over the forecast area by Saturday afternoon. As a result, Utah and southwest Wyoming will see dry conditions over the weekend with maxes up to 10F above seasonal normals by Sunday.

The ridge continuing east to start the work week will open up the Pacific to storm systems once again, ushering in an active pattern for the upcoming week. The initial storm system now looks likely to move across the area late Monday into Tuesday with another system following on its heels for the midweek period. As of right now, these storms have the potential to contain more moisture and instability than other recent storm systems, with associated temperatures looking borderline for the long awaited northern Utah valley snow.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will prevail with broken to overcast conditions. Scattered showers, primarily for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah, will be capable of MVFR conditions. There will be light winds throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah, with precipitation tapering off for the north around 06Z. Scattered rain showers will track into southern Utah after 06Z and similarly be capable of MVFR conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ110>113.

WY...None.