textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 109 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Isolated high-based convection this afternoon across northern Utah and SW Wyoming with gusty outflow winds being the primary concern.

- Mostly dry this weekend with moisture increasing early next week resulting in more high-based convection.

- Temperatures climb ~5 degrees above normal by early next week with ~30% chance of reaching our first 100 degree day of the year at KSLC.

DISCUSSION, Issued 109 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

More high-based convection is developing across far northwest and northeast Utah and SW Wyoming as weak ascent interacts with some lingering moisture. This activity will mostly stay focused over the higher terrain. Gusty outflow winds will again be possible with this convection. Any outflow boundaries that develop could make their way to the Wasatch Front with some moderately gusty winds 40-45 mph later this afternoon and evening.

Conditions become much drier this weekend with the exception of some isolated convection in the western Uintas on Saturday. A ridge will start to develop across the Four Corners this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will rise, likely peaking Sunday and Monday, into the mid to upper 90s (with 100s across lower Washington county). This will be ~5 degrees above normal. Paired with poor overnight recoveries the heat risk will increase, although not too unusually hot for this time of year. So the necessity for heat products next week is still marginal, at best. KSLC has yet to record 100 degrees this summer, but NBM probs have ~30% chance of reaching 100 next week.

Moisture will also increase early next week as PWATs climb between 0.6 and 0.9 inches areawide. This will be enough for diurnal convection to develop, but likely not quite enough to increase the flash flood threat. Guidance has trended towards this ridge shifting into the southwest and just off the SoCal coast which would lead to more westerly zonal flow over the area by midweek and shutting off the moisture tap.

AVIATION, Issued 109 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

KSLC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. A few gusty high-based thunderstorms are possible near the terminal over the next 6-8hrs, dissipating by sunset.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. High-based gusty thunderstorms are possible across our northern UT sites and KEVW over the next 6-8hrs, though confidence remains too low at this time to include for a few TAF sites and their TAFs and may be amended.

FIRE WEATHER

Locally critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon across southern and southeastern Utah with isolated wind gusts as high as 30 mph and poor RH. Storms near the Idaho and Wyoming border will pose a threat for some lightning and gusty outflow winds this afternoon. High pressure builds in this weekend that will weaken wind gusts and make for drier conditions. Moisture, winds, and temperatures increase early next week as the ridge matures.

Diurnal convection, primarily across the terrain, will develop next week with a threat for more lightning and gusty winds. Moisture levels will be marginal, limiting the wetting rain potential. High pressure will gradually slide further southwest through midweek gradually decreasing mid-level moisture.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.