textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and cool conditions continue through Monday before a warming trend kicks in Tuesday, lasting into the weekend.

- An active pattern looks to develop late Wednesday evening / Thursday morning, potentially bringing another round of mountain snow and low elevation rain into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Ridging begins to build across the forecast area today as a longwave trough continues pushing east. In the post frontal environment today, cooler air will continue to usher into the region via northerly flow and is expected to continue into tomorrow. Northerly flow remains reinforced aloft as a cutoff low forms off a shortwave trough as it traverses south across CA before retrogressing into the eastern Pacific. This will keep temperatures cold compared to our recent temperatures, though in reality, they remain near or just slightly below average for this time of year.

On Tuesday, winds aloft will clock to westerly as the cutoff low retrogresses further offshore with the ridge strengthening in its wake as troughing across the eastern U.S. persists. As heights continue to build through at least Thursday, expect temperatures to increase to around 5-10F above average across the majority of the forecast area with the exception of lower Washington county which will remain around normal for this time of year.

An active period looks to develop as early as late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning as the cutoff low stalls southwest of CA. Throughout Wednesday, this low is expected to deepen as it ejects to the northeast as it phases into the mean flow once again and pushes inland somewhere between the central and northern CA coast. This is where the forecast becomes tricky as cutoff lows are typically quite difficult to resolve in the extended period, particularly due to ensemble disagreement with respect to the strength of the aforementioned ridge. Currently, ensemble cluster analysis has roughly ~75% of all members indicating a weaker ridge to the north which would favor the cutoff low breaking down into an open wave as it traverses across central UT. This solution would generally favor modest precipitation across the majority of the forecast area. The other ~25% of all members favor a stronger ridge to the north which would keep this system to our south, likely keeping precipitation across southern UT, if at all, and keeping the remainder of the forecast area dry. However, confidence is high regarding both outcomes keeping temperatures across the area above average for this time of year. This forecast is highly subject to change over the next few days, so stay tuned!

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Northerly winds this afternoon will diminish shortly after sunset and become light and variable through tonight.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.