textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Gap winds will develop in favored areas of southwest Utah this afternoon and evening, with isolated gusts exceeding 45 mph near Black Rock Canyon.

- Dry conditions are expected to be maintained area-wide through much of the extended forecast period.

DISCUSSION

As our weak storm system moves out of the region, lingering isolated light snow showers in far southern Utah will diminish through the remainder of the afternoon hours before dry conditions prevail area-wide after sunset. Little, if any, impacts are expected from the lingering showers of snow through the afternoon hours.

The cold airmass left in the wake of this recent system will remain in place over Utah and southwest Wyoming through at least Sunday, bringing seasonable temperatures. The colder, denser airmass continues to progress southward, forcing the higher density air through terrain features and accelerating winds. Most notably, a strengthening surface pressure gradient alongside northerly flow around 35 mph will help to create strong wind gusts (45+ mph) through gaps in terrain between Cedar City and St. George. While winds will likely (70% chance) gust in excess of 45 mph, impacts are expected to be quite limited to the areas closest to Black Ridge Canyon. As strong wind impacts are not expected to extend into St. George and will generally not create hazardous driving conditions, have opted to not issue Wind Advisories for these gap winds.

Come Sunday, trailing shortwave energy is expected to progress along the northeastern portion of the CWA, carrying with it very little moisture. As such, the dynamic lift provided by this shortwave trough is only expected to bring light snowfall, primarily over the Uinta Mountains. Little to no impact is anticipated.

Moving into next week, model guidance remains in solid agreement that, while mostly dry, a series of shortwave troughs will progress through the dominant ridge feature over the western U.S. The biggest influence this will have across our forecast area will be the maintenance of cooler air overhead. While the trend in surface temperatures may not reflect this, the potential lack of strong valley inversions, at least across northern Utah, will (hopefully) speak for itself. Right now, the biggest uncertainty with this forecast is how deep each of these shortwave troughs become as they progress through the region. The shallower the shortwave, the less potential it brings to reduce inversion potential. In addition to this, a late week shortwave (slated for Thursday) will also bring potential for light precipitation across the northern area. Right now only 30% of the ensemble guidance is supportive of a deep enough trough to favor enough lift and moisture... but it's something to keep an eye on, even though impacts will be quite limited.

Long story made short... dry conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry conditions with mostly clear skies will continue with light and diurnally driven winds.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.