textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 951 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across most of Utah and southwest Wyoming continue through this upcoming week as monsoonal moisture remains in place.

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding remains a concern from storm activity this week, especially for burn scars and other sensitive terrain across southern Utah.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for Sunday afternoon and evening across portions of southwest and south-central Utah.

DISCUSSION, Issued 951 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Recent radar imagery depicts convective activity quickly waning across Utah and southwest Wyoming late this evening. Conditions remain dry overnight before showers and thunderstorms redevelop again across the high terrain after roughly noon on Sunday. Widely scattered coverage is favored again across most of central and southern Utah as deep monsoonal moisture remains in place, with PWAT values 1+" lingering across the area. With weak easterly steering flow aloft, flash flooding concerns will be a near rinse and repeat of the past few days. Across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, convective activity will be more isolated as a shortwave passing to the north brings slightly drier air into the region, with PWATs dropping into the 0.7-0.9" range across these areas. WPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall in place for most areas generally south of I-80, and a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for portions of southwest and south- central Utah once again on Sunday.

The monsoon pattern sticks around through the entirety of the upcoming week as a broad ridge remains overhead, though the heavy rainfall and attendant flash flooding risk will fluctuate through this period. Current guidance still favors Tuesday for a widespread excessive rainfall risk, as evidenced by the WPC excessive rainfall outlook containing a Slight Risk across west-central and southwest Utah. After a relative lull in moisture advection into the region through Monday, a surge in deep monsoonal moisture looks to spread northward Tuesday, with PWATs in excess of 1" in place across most of the region.

Ensemble clusters are indicating that the center of the ridge will begin to gradually slide westward Thursday through the latter half of the week. This pattern would support greatest monsoonal moisture favoring areas to our west, with PWATs gradually tapering across the region. However, with a lack of a more progressive pattern, moisture will still linger across the region through the end of the week, keeping daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in place for the time being.

AVIATION, Issued 1028 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

KSLC...Some lingering VFR cloud cover generally above 10 kft expected overnight, with winds light out of the SE. On Sunday, expect winds to shift NW ~17-19Z with less than a 20% chance of afternoon convection directly impacting the terminal. Indirectly, any convection in reasonable proximity will bring potential for gusty erratic outflow winds. In general though, anticipate VFR conditions to persist with winds returning SE Sunday evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Convection around the region will continue to further wane, with associated outflows washing out and winds returning to a light and diurnally normal to variable direction. Some mid to upper level VFR cloud cover will linger. Sunday will then see a similar pattern evolution. Afternoon convection will develop, with the highest coverage expected along and adjacent to Utah's high terrain. Stronger activity directly over area terminals will bring around a 20-40% chance of brief MVFR conditions, and indirectly will result in gusty and erratic outflow winds.

FIRE WEATHER

A mix of conditions is expected today across the area as monsoonal moisture remains solidly in place over the southern two-thirds of Utah while the northern third will be on the drier side today (with the exception of the Uinta Mountains). Like clockwork, showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin forming over the high terrain across central and southern Utah, as well as the Uinta Mountains, around 1200. With very little flow overhead, storms are expected to move fairly slowly (10-15 mph) to the west into adjacent valley areas. That said, multiple rounds of storms may form over the high terrain features throughout the day, bringing the threat of heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty outflow winds through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Areas in central and southern Utah will see overall higher humidity throughout the day, however, moisture lacking in northern Utah (particularly in the West Desert) will allow for humidity to fall into the mid-teens by the mid-afternoon hours. While light terrain driven winds are expected throughout Utah, areas in northwest Utah may see some of the driest conditions we've seen since right before the monsoonal moisture arrived.

This moisture is expected to remain in place through at least the next 5 days, with shower and thunderstorm coverage expected to expand northward once again by Monday. Models are hinting at a potential drying of the environment as we head into next weekend, especially for the lower elevations across Utah.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for UTZ122>128.

WY...None.