textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring hot and very dry conditions through the first half of the week, with the hottest temperatures of the season across areas like St. George and Glen Canyon National Recreation area.

- Gusty northwest winds combined with a hot and very dry airmass will result in critical fire weather conditions through Wednesday across portions of eastern, central and southern Utah where fuels are critically dry.

- Another round of gusty winds up to 35-45 mph combined with very dry humidities will bring the threat of critical fire weather conditions to western Utah Friday.

DISCUSSION

Gusty west to northwest winds remain across the region this afternoon. Northwesterly flow associated with an active northern stream remains in place. High pressure will gradually shift into the Great Basin Thursday. These gusty northwest winds and dry conditions will bring critical fire weather conditions to much of central, eastern and southern Utah through Wednesday. See the fire weather discussion for more details.

As a shortwave trough shifts eastward into the Great Basin Friday, expect gusty southwesterly winds to develop across much of the region. Currently, the threat of wind advisory winds (gusts 45 mph+) is around 30% or so across west central and southwest Utah Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A mainly dry cold front will cross into Utah Friday evening...which may prolong the period of gusty winds into the first part of Friday night.

Isolated high-based convection will be possible as early as Thursday across the southern mountains...and then across northern Utah in association with the shortwave trough Friday into Saturday. By Saturday, sufficient instability and deep layer shear may exist across northern Utah to bring a threat of organized convection. Something to monitor moving forward.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

A largely benign weather pattern persists with clear to mostly clear skies, VFR conditions, and winds that generally follow a diurnally typical direction pattern. Some terminals will see daytime gusts around 20-30 kts, primarily those that are more exposed or typically breezy.

FIRE WEATHER

A long duration of gusty winds and low humidities will impact much of the region through at least Friday. As the northern stream remains active across the northern Intermountain Region, gusty west to northwest flow will continue across Utah. This will combine with low humidities and poor overnight recoveries to bring critical fire weather conditions to eastern and southern Utah through Wednesday. By Thursday, high pressure will briefly shift eastward...and wind gusts will decrease. Some locations may see elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon and evening, particularly across the central mountains and adjacent valleys.

By Friday, a shortwave trough will cross the Great Basin, increasing winds ahead of a mainly dry cold front through late evening Friday night. Wind gusts in excess of 35 to 45 mph will occur across western Utah as early Friday afternoon. These will combine with humidities near 5 to 10 percent to bring critical fire weather conditions to western Utah Friday afternoon into late Friday evening. Additional areas across southern Utah may also see critical fire weather conditions...though confidence is lower at this time.

Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible as early as Thursday afternoon across the southern mountains...and Friday afternoon across northwestern Utah. This trend may expand with time over the weekend.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for UTZ478-492-495.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ482-484-488-489- 493-494-496-498.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for UTZ497.

WY...None.