textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to impact primarily northern portions of the forecast area through Wednesday morning. Any storms that develop are capable of producing gusty outflow winds.

- High pressure will bring dry conditions and a warming trend late Wednesday through at least the first part of the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

A broad low pressure system is centered over central California this evening. The system is elongating, with shortwave energy on the front side of the low ejected into Nevada. This is creating an area of deformation over northern Utah, which is allowing scattered showers to continue this evening, primarily over southern Tooele and Utah counties. Have seen some isolated gusts in excess of 35 mph with some storms, and would not be surprised to see a few more tonight into tomorrow morning.

The low is expected to track across Arizona overnight through Tuesday afternoon before phasing with a trough diving south across the central United States that will bring a backdoor front into southwest Wyoming and eastern Utah Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The potential for showers will increase over northeastern portions of the area Tuesday morning as that trough approaches, with the position of the jet and daytime heating bringing increased coverage to the remainder of northern Utah during the day Tuesday. Anticipating more lower and mid level moisture by Tuesday afternoon, decreasing the threat of gusty winds somewhat. Showers will linger over eastern portions of the forecast area late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the backdoor trough continues south.

As the two troughs exits the area, broad Pacific ridging will spread into the Interior West bring temperatures, which will be near seasonal normals tomorrow into Wednesday, back to values 10F or more above climo by Thursday afternoon. Dry and very mild weather will continue through at least Friday. Most guidance is now showing a weak trough sliding into northern and central Utah during the day Saturday into early Sunday on the front side of the ridge. Most likely impacts from this would be slight cooling of temperatures and a few showers and thunderstorms. Afterward, confidence is high that strong high pressure will rebuild for the beginning of next week.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

For southern terminals, dry conditions expected to hold until after 00Z Wed, with ~20-40% chance of showers thereafter. Winds through this time will also tend to be diurnally normal. At northern terminals, showers become more isolated overnight, though there is around a 20-40% chance of a band of showers setting up somewhere in the KSLC to KPVU area. Shower chances increase by the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms also developing. Storms will be capable of gusty erratic outflow winds as well as brief reductions to CIGS/VIS. Aside from precipitation, winds largely favored to remain diurnally normal.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.