textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1042 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Rainfall will become widespread and heavy at times across Utah and southwest Wyoming overnight into Sunday morning, persisting through the afternoon, as the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel cross the area. Many areas will see between 1 and 2 inches of precipitation through Monday morning with locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches across southwest Utah as well as some of the higher terrain of northern Utah. This will bring an enhanced threat of flash flooding, particularly for southern Utah.

- Windy conditions will remain in place, particularly for west central and southwest Utah, through Sunday night into early Monday in association with Rachel. Isolated gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible.

- The potential for severe weather exists across southern and eastern Utah Sunday into Monday morning. The primary threat will be severe thunderstorm gusts and possibly isolated tornadoes.

- Rachel's moisture is expected to interact with a Pacific Northwest low that is then forecast to move across Utah and southwest Wyoming Monday into Tuesday, with some precipitation lingering into Wednesday. This will bring another round of widespread precipitation along with much cooler temperatures and lowering snow levels, bringing the potential for significant mountain snow.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1042 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

There remains a lot to talk about this evening with what was Tropical Storm Rachel centered along the Baja California coast as a Post-Tropical Cyclone as a broad Pacific Northwest low moves onshore. Deep moisture in place brought good coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, with the area now in a relative lull, though still with a good amount of light stratiform rain in place, particularly over southern Utah. The rain (snow at the highest elevations) will increase in coverage overnight and gradually spread northward as Rachel's remnants track northeast, reaching southwest Utah by midday before it mostly gets absorbed by the larger low Sunday night into Monday. QPF values in association with Rachel through Monday morning look impressive, particularly over southwest Utah where 3 inches of rain or more looks increasingly likely. This amount of rain will predictably cause some flooding issues, particularly in flood prone areas, but the more steady nature of this rain, and that it will be falling over a relatively long duration, may make the impacts easier to manage. Still, going Flood Watch looks good for this unusual amount of precipitation.

There may be a relative lull Sunday night into early Monday before the widespread precipitation begins again during the day Monday. Current guidance shows the associated front reaching northwest Utah mid to late morning on Monday, with the low slowly tracking across the area through at least late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Seeing 700mb temps drop into the -3C to -4C range with the low, potentially lowering snow levels to around 8,000 feet. QPF values with this part of the action also look impressive, with more of a focus over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming than what is expected with Rachel, with many northern mountain locations forecast to see in excess of 2 inches of water, which could lead to some significant snow in the higher terrain. This should also bring an abrupt end to the mild temperatures as of late, with Tuesday's highs expected to run 15-20F below seasonal normals.

After all the activity, high pressure is then expected to bring a warming and drying trend for much of the latter half of the upcoming week.

AVIATION

KSLC...Gusty southerly winds will continue through much of the day. Persistent light rainfall this morning is expected to become more showery/spotty in nature after 18z, with a chance for isolated thunder during the afternoon. Showers will fill in again for the late afternoon through nighttime hours. Low-level wind shear may develop this evening (after 02z) as 2000ft AGL winds approach 45kts, though confidence in this development remains low at this time; surface winds may remain gusty just ahead of a frontal boundary that will produce a northwest wind shift this evening, generally in the 02-05z timeframe.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Persistent light-moderate rainfall will continue to transition to more showery precipitation from south to north this morning. These showers will then continue into the overnight hours, with a slight chance for thunder during the afternoon. Strong southerly winds will persist across the area, becoming a bit lighter in most locations overnight. A swath of even stronger southerlies is likely to move from south to north through the day today, beginning across southwestern UT this morning and maximizing across northern UT by the evening hours. Some sites in particular may see very strong winds in excess of 45kts with localized downslope winds. This includes KCDC/KMLF/KBCE mid-day and KTVY Sunday evening. Low-level wind shear may also accompany this wind swath particularly Sunday afternoon/evening (especially at KSGU and KLGU).

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 139 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A strong southwesterly flow aloft remains in place today into tonight ahead of and with remnants of a tropical storm. Deep moisture will also continue to spread into the area, leading to high chances of wetting rain. Steadier light to moderate rain this morning will transition to scattered, potentially strong, thunderstorms producing strong outflow winds and heavy rain this afternoon. Although the tropical remnants exit the area tonight into Monday, an upstream storm system slowly crossing the area will interact with the moisture in place to continue to bring high wetting rain chances to the area through at least early Wednesday. In addition, lowering snow levels due to the arrival of cooler air, especially Tuesday and Wednesday, will result in generally light accumulating snow over the higher terrain. High pressure is expected to return late week bringing warmer and drier conditions. However, there is a less then 25 percent chance that the storm system will continue to linger over the area, which would maintain unsettled conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for UTZ101>131.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ115-122.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ116-117-119-125>127.

WY...None.