textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1034 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Drier air spreading into southwest Utah will limit convection across southern Utah on Tuesday, with isolated to scattered convection developing again across northern Utah. Moisture will increase again on Wednesday, bringing an increased threat of flash flooding across central and southern Utah, before decreasing substantially from Thursday onward. - Significant heat temporarily and marginally subsides on Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing in intensity once again by Thursday onward. High temperatures will only moderate to the upper-90s on the Wasatch Front and mid-100s in the lowest elevations of southern Utah before increasing by upwards of 5-7 degrees over the weekend.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1034 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue, mainly across central Utah, before diminishing after midnight. These showers were aided by a slight increase in moisture today, as PWATs increased to between 1-1.2 inches across much of the forecast area. For Tuesday, expect drier air to spread into the southwestern quadrant of Utah, while a pool of moisture lingers over northern Utah. This will result in scattered convection across northern Utah Tuesday afternoon and evening, and very isolated convective activity across southern Utah. This idea is well supported by various CAMs.

As high pressure over New Mexico amplifies Tuesday night, a brief period of southerly flow will spread some moisture back into the area. This will bring an uptick in convective activity for Wednesday. However, this should be the last gasp for the monsoonal pattern for a little while, as the high pressure will then start to slowly shift westward across Arizona through the weekend. This will spread a drier westerly flow into the area beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend and at least the first half of next week.

Temperatures will continue to trend slightly cooler midweek with the moisture. However, as the airmass dries out and strong high pressure shifts over the area late week and over the weekend, expect a very warm airmass to settle into the area. Global models show H7 temperatures ranging from 20-22C across the forecast area with pockets of up to 23C. Most valleys can expect to see high temperatures of 100 degrees or higher once again (over 110 degrees in Lower Washington County and the Glen Canyon area). The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index is showing a strong signal for anomalously high temperatures during this time. Latest HeatRisk is Major to Extreme for most valleys, especially over the weekend. Models indicate a bit of a cooling trend early next week as the ridge flattens in response to a series of shortwave troughs rippling east near the Canadian border.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions prevail overall at the terminal through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms developing along the high terrain have a 30% chance to impact the terminal between roughly 19- 23z and again 04-09z. The main impact from showers and thunderstorms through this period includes gusty and erratic outflow winds, with gusts to 30 kts possible at times. Otherwise, southerly winds prevail this morning, shifting northwesterly after roughly 19-20z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all regional terminals through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern and south-central Utah as well as southwest Wyoming between 19z-09z, with potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds with gusts upwards of 30-40 kts. Otherwise, winds remain generally light, following typical diurnal patterns across the airspace.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 459 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Wednesday as monsoonal moisture lingers across the state. Coverage will be mostly confined to the eastern half of the state today, then become more widespread on Wednesday. Storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds upwards of 40 to 50 mph. Much drier conditions develop areawide on Thursday as high pressure strengthens across the western US, limiting chances for convection into the weekend. This pattern will also bring a warming trend through the latter half of the week, with temperatures upwards of 10 degrees above average developing this weekend. Critically dry conditions develop by Friday across the entirety of Utah as relative humidity values drop into the single digits to low teens, with poor overnight humidity recoveries.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.