textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1114 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- A warming trend will continue through at least Thursday.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur across central and southern Utah Tuesday into Wednesday given enhanced southwesterly winds coupled with low humidities.

- The next monsoon surge is increasing in probability to begin on Friday...which will be the next chance for measurable rainfall for the vast majority of the region.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1114 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Largely quiescent conditions will continue through at least Wednesday as dry, southwesterly to westerly flow persists. Utah and southwest Wyoming remain on the upstream periphery of a broad ridge stretching across much of the southern US, resulting in an overall subsident regime. A bit of lingering low-level moisture may result in isolated afternoon showers both today and Monday, though these will be fairly weak and unimpactful.

The only interesting large-scale feature early this week is a grazing shortwave trough that will move across the Interior West late Tuesday through Wednesday. This will produce slightly stronger southwesterly winds statewide with locally critical fire weather conditions, though 700-mb winds only increase to around 20kts at best. Additionally, with weak lift just ahead of this shortwave, scattered showers are likely to develop across portions of northern Utah Tuesday evening before drier air moves in by Wednesday morning.

Following the shortwave trough, high pressure will begin to strengthen over the Desert Southwest, though some subtle uncertainty remains on the exact position of this ridge. Model guidance favors this ridge axis settling over the Four Corners by Friday, resulting in increasing monsoonal moisture once again. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as Thursday afternoon across far southern Utah, with higher confidence in thunderstorm activity across much of the area on Friday and into the weekend.

AVIATION...KSLC

Predominantly VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. North winds will largely prevail through around 02-03z, but may be variable at times. Expect a gradual shift to southerly between 02-04z. Northwest winds are expected to return tomorrow between 19-21z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the valid TAF period. Isolated showers with a 10% chance of thunderstorms will continue along some northern Utah mountains this evening before diminishing. Tomorrow afternoon, expect another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Generally light winds with typical diurnal trends are expected at area terminals.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 126 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Conditions will become gradually hotter and drier through Thursday, with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms developing on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Chance for wetting rains remains near zero. Near critical to critical humidities will become more widespread across most valleys with most higher terrain seeing minimum RH in the 25-40% range. Southwesterly winds will increase slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, resulting in widespread elevated fire weather conditions with isolated areas reaching critical values for wind and RH, primarily in valley locations where RH is lower.

Monsoonal moisture looks more likely to return by Friday, though isolated thunderstorms could develop across far southern Utah by Thursday afternoon. This monsoon push will likely result in increasing RH, wetting rain chances, and lightning probabilities.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.