textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions will continue across the Henry Mountains and Grand Staircase through this evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms will develop across much of the region Friday afternoon and evening. There is a 5% chance of wind gusts up to 40 mph near any thunderstorms.

- Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will shift across northern Utah Saturday into early Sunday. Occasional lightning and periods of graupel will occur with these showers and thunderstorms.

- High pressure will shift into the region Sunday into much of the next week.

DISCUSSION

An upper level will continue to shift across California into the Great Basin through Saturday. While Utah is currently in the dry slot, this will change by early Friday afternoon as showers and thunderstorms develop across much of Utah between 18-21Z. HREF mean SBCAPE near 200-300 J/kg will combine with deep layer shear near 30-40kts+ to support this convection. With a relatively dry cloud base, the main threat with this convection will be microburst winds up to 40 mph (5% chance).

By Saturday morning, the upper level low will be near Evanston, with enhanced forcing for precipitation across much of northern Utah into Uinta County. This area of precipitation will trend more toward widespread showers than organized convection, though cannot rule out a few thunderstorms will occur on the southern flank of this precipitation area. By Saturday evening, by and large the threat of precipitation will exit the region, outside of isolated showers with another shortwave trough rotating around the base of the longwave trough early Sunday into Sunday afternoon.

By late Sunday, high pressure will build into the region and bring an extended period of mainly dry, hot temperatures...potentially through the remainder of next week. A dry cold front may bring slight cooling Tuesday afternoon to far northern Utah, but that's about the most impact in the guidance at this point for this period.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Southerly winds generally favored at area terminals, many with modest gusts generally around 20-30 kts. Skies expected to be mostly clear to partly cloudy with VFR conditions maintained. Winds relax some Thursday evening into the overnight, with clouds then thickening approaching Friday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances will then gradually increase from south to north from late Friday morning on through the afternoon, primarily impacting terminals near the high terrain south of I-80 or so.

FIRE WEATHER

Gusty winds and low humidities will continue to bring critical fire weather conditions to the Henry Mountains and the Grand Staircase through this evening. An upper level low will slowly eject across the region, bringing an increased potential for wetting rain across northern Utah as well as the higher terrain of central and southern Utah Friday into Saturday. Some thunderstorms may contain gusty and erratic microburst winds up to 40 mph Friday afternoon and evening.

After the upper level low departs the region on Saturday, a much hotter, drier pattern will develop Sunday and remain in place for much of the next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ494-498.

WY...None.