textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak trough will scrape through the northeastern CWA on Thursday, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, alongside slightly cooler temperatures.

- Temperatures warm back to 5 to 15 degrees above normal across the region by Monday alongside a relatively benign weather pattern.

- An area of low pressure will progress into the region during the first half of next week, bringing potential for elevated fire weather conditions across a portion of Utah.

DISCUSSION

Remnants of a cooler airmass left in the wake of the most recent storm system will linger across a portion of the region on Wednesday, bringing below average high temperatures in the northern area and near average temperatures in the southern area. Low amounts of instability near the southern trough axis in southwest Wyoming/ northeast Utah will keep a chance for light rain/ snow showers in the forecast for tomorrow, especially in the high Uinta Mountains. Given stabilizing conditions overhead, the chances for an isolated thunderstorm or two in this same area is low, but not zero (5-15%).

As one system leaves our area, another follows quickly in its wake. Models maintain good agreement on a trough diving out of western Canada on Wednesday evening and arriving in the eastern Great Basin region by Thursday morning. The coldest temperatures associated with this system are likely to remain east of the forecast area, making the most noteworthy change in conditions the increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage across the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming. Current guidance supports a weak baroclinic zone moving into northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming during the early morning hours on Thursday, helping to kick off light precipitation as it pairs with the increasing low level moisture. This leading edge of precipitation should work through much of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming by the early afternoon. Behind this boundary, moisture and instability will increase and allow for more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop with greater intensity. At this time the greatest threat from these anticipated thunderstorms looks to be small hail (0.5 inches or less) and wind gusts up to 40-50 mph.

Conditions across the region will stabilize marginally by Friday as the main trough moves eastward out of the region. That said, lingering lower level moisture and elevated instability will keep low chances (10-15% chance or less) for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast, particularly across the high Uinta Mountains and near highest terrain features in southern Utah.

Rapid warming is expected across the region through the weekend as high pressure reestablishes its presence in the region. High temperatures will rise back to 5 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year, with the lower end anomaly expected across the southern area and the higher end expected across the northern area. Mostly dry conditions are expected alongside this warmth before our next weather system starts taking aim on the region from Tuesday forward.

There is still a bit of uncertainty revolving around this system, however, the big picture trends to look out for (especially on Tuesday) will be an increase in southerly winds alongside above normal temperatures and dry surface conditions. All three of these variables will pair to generate potentially elevated fire weather conditions by Tuesday afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions are expected to persist across all TAF sites. Diurnally driven winds will be the norm across the area through Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Temperatures will steadily warm through the week, reaching values around 10F above seasonal normals by late in the weekend. Conditions will be on the dry side with light winds for much of the week, with the exception of Thursday. A storm system will temporarily curb the warming trend and bring a low chance of wetting rains to northeast Utah. The system will also bring some breezy winds, which could bring some locally critical fire weather conditions to some southern Utah valleys Thursday afternoon.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.