textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- High-based showers capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds to 50 mph are expected across southern Utah Sunday afternoon and evening.

- The threat for thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds shifts into northern Utah Monday afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures dip Monday into Tuesday, but will be short lived as high pressure reamplifies across the region and allows temperatures to climb to around 10-15 degrees above average by Friday.

DISCUSSION

Transient ridging overhead will maintain dry conditions with continued above- average warmth across Utah and southwest Wyoming today.

A more active pattern is still on track to kick off Sunday as an upper-level cutoff low drops down the west coast before ejecting inland into southern California late Sunday. Mid-level moisture advection around the low will creep into southern Utah by Sunday afternoon, allowing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon hours. Model soundings across southern Utah show inverted-V profiles given very dry antecedent conditions and DCAPE values around 800-1200 J/kg, which supports dry microburst activity across the area. As such, storms that develop across southern Utah Sunday afternoon and evening will be capable of producing gusts to 50 mph.

While the microburst threat will dwindle late Sunday night, light showers continue to spread northward into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Increasing instability on Monday afternoon courtesy of upper- level diffluence from the passing cutoff low and a deepening northern stream trough will reinvigorate showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially along the Wasatch Front. Dry microbursts with gusts to 50 mph will once again be the main threat through the evening.

As the aforementioned low continues tracking eastward through the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, temperatures will trend near to slightly below seasonal averages areawide. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to once again develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with more widespread coverage across the region. However, given increasing moisture throughout the column, the dry microburst threat is minimal.

Isolated showers are possible mainly along the high terrain on Wednesday afternoon given some lingering moisture, but otherwise a warming and drying trend will prevail through the remainder of the week. A ridge will gradually strengthen across the western US through at least Friday, allowing temperatures to climb back above average, with highs around 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages by Friday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

At northern terminals, an approaching system will result in an increase in upper level VFR cloud cover. Winds will tend to be light (generally less than 15 kts) with directions following a diurnally normal pattern. Southern terminals will also see high clouds increase along with mid level clouds into Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon, bringing potential for periods of gusty and erratic outflow winds. Otherwise winds will tend to to see diurnally normal directions and modest magnitudes.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.