textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1015 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Moisture remains in place across southern UT tomorrow afternoon resulting in more widespread thunderstorms. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts with isolated flash flooding appears possible with these storms.

- Hot and dry conditions develop Monday as high pressure builds over the region. Widespread valley HeatRisk values develop across valley locations, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions return to UT Tuesday and Wednesday as winds pick up out of the northwest.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1015 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Currently, a midlevel shortwave trough is progressing southeast across the MT/ID border with another weaker shortwave stalled over the CA coastline providing persistent SW'erly flow across southern UT. With time, these two waves will phase together into tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist in some capacity across southern UT into central UT keeping the airmass moist and reinforcing a thermal boundary further north. This moist and unstable airmass will favor thunderstorm development across central and southern UT tomorrow afternoon as midlevel ascent increases with the troughs phasing together as they move southeast. With CAPE on the order of 500-750J/kg amidst steep 0-3km LR's and DCAPE in excess of 1200J/kg, strong to severe gusts and potentially small hail cannot be ruled out with any storm that forms. Additionally, PWATs ranging from 0.6-0.9" may yield a localized flash flood threat for any slow-moving or terrain enhanced storms. High LCL's on the order of 2500m+ yield some uncertainty with how much precip will make it to the ground, though storm coverage may compensate and moisten the PBL potentially resulting in training storms yielding a heightened flash flooding threat.

Overnight into Monday morning, a dry front will traverse the state as midlevel ridging begins to nudge into the area. Some residual moisture may result in some terrain driven thunderstorms across central and southern UT Monday afternoon, though these will be quite transient and isolated at best.

Throughout the remainder of the period, an upper jet will progress south from Canada into the central plains, establishing a persistent troughing pattern across the central and eastern U.S.. This will keep much of the west underneath a building ridge, amplifying across each passing day. Hot and dry conditions are forecast to develop once again through the long term, potentially persisting into Saturday and beyond. HeatRisk will see an increase as this occurs, with the highest confidence of heat related issues developing Tuesday and Wednesday as HeatRisk enters the moderate range across most valleys.

Additionally, as ridging builds in and tightens the pressure gradient Tuesday and Wednesday, midlevel northwesterly winds are forecast to see an enhancement. Given preceding dry conditions, these winds will mix to the surface with enhanced dry northwest winds overspreading much of UT Tuesday through Wednesday. As such, critical fire weather conditions are expected to return to the state Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons due to gusty surface winds.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the overnight hours across the airspace with generally light and terrain driven winds. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over portions of southwest Utah during the overnight and early morning hours, with a low chance of gusty winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop over southern Utah during the afternoon. Gusty winds will be possible with any storms that develop along with a low chance of brief MVFR conditions in heavier showers.

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture continues to increase across southern Utah. This will result in higher wetting rain potential with the convection that develops this afternoon. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will remain the primary threat. This activity will primarily be along and south of I-70 with some isolated convection across eastern Utah. Any storms north of I-70 will pose more of a dry lightning threat given the higher bases. Conditions will remain dry and warm across northern Utah.

Conditions become much drier and hotter as the week progresses. High pressure will be centered to our west which will keep a northwesterly flow across the area. Relative humidity will drop into the single digits for most locations by Tuesday with poor overnight recoveries only getting into the 20-30% range. Breezy diurnal winds out of the northwest will develop with the highest gusts to the east of terrain, primarily across eastern Utah. This will result in critical fire weather conditions for areas where vegetation has cured.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.