textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms this afternoon will result in a conditional fire weather threat for portions of central and northeastern Utah.

- A series of storms will continue to yield widespread gusty winds through Wednesday. This will result in areas of blowing dust through this period, particularly across the West Desert Monday.

- An extended period of gusty winds and low relative humidity brings widespread critical fire weather conditions to central and southern Utah through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon along a line generally extending from west-central to far northeast Utah, attributed to a stalled front over the area. Environmental conditions are sufficient for storms to produce dry lightning strikes as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds to 50 mph, which introduces a conditional fire weather threat across this area. Otherwise, dry northwest flow is ongoing behind the front, with strong southwest winds still being observed across the remainder of central and southern Utah, which combined with RH values in the single digits are producing widespread critical fire weather conditions. Avoid any activities that could cause a spark today.

The first shortwave trough in this week's series of storms lifts northward late today, allowing winds to ease across all of Utah and southwest Wyoming tonight. This will be short-lived, as a second shortwave deepens into the PacNW on Monday. Gusty southwesterly winds redevelop once again areawide by Monday afternoon, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range. Outside of fire weather concerns, strong winds across the West Desert will be capable of producing blowing dust that could impact visibility along I-80 and US-6. Winds remain elevated overnight with poor overnight humidity recoveries across central and southern Utah. Strongest winds shift slightly eastward into east-central and southeast Utah on Tuesday, with a 30-40% chance for more widespread gusts exceeding 40 mph. Despite increasing mid-level moisture along and behind a frontal passage associated with this system late Monday into Tuesday, conditions remain critically dry across central and southern Utah, leading to another extended period of critical fire weather conditions across the area.

Behind the front on Wednesday, winds taper for most of the region except the eastern half of Utah as post-frontal northwesterly flow favors downslope enhancement of winds, notably across the Uinta Basin and Castle Country. Looking towards the end of the week, the pattern shifts more towards a zonal flow, which will favor continued above-normal warmth, though with a bit less wind.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will prevail across the region under increasing mid-level cloud cover. Winds will remain elevated during the overnight hours near significant terrain features in the central and southern area, as well as a portion of the northeastern area, potentially gusting upwards of 25-30kts. Gusty southwest winds continue across much of the area on Sunday, primarily over the eastern area, with gusts upwards of 25-30kts. Additionally, high-based showers are also expected to develop across central Utah on Sunday afternoon, bringing potential for gusty and erratic outflows in excess of 40kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Critical fire weather conditions continue across central and southern Utah through this evening given widespread southwesterly winds with gusts 30-40 mph and RH in the low teens. There is a more conditional fire weather threat once again this afternoon, mainly across portions of central to northeastern Utah as high-based thunderstorms develop this afternoon, with potential to produce dry lightning strikes and gusty and erratic outflow winds to 50 mph. Winds taper this evening areawide, but another weather system digging into the Great Basin Monday into Tuesday will bring another extended period of gusty southwesterly winds with gusts 30-40 and locally to 45 mph through this period. Strongest winds will be favored across the western half of Utah on Monday, then shift to eastern Utah on Tuesday. A mostly dry cold front sweeping through the region late Tuesday will bring downsloping winds to portions of eastern Utah on Wednesday, which will bring locally critical fire weather conditions as daytime humidity values remain in the single digits to low teens across the area.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ484-489- 492>498.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ484-489-492>498.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for UTZ484-489-493-494-496-498.

WY...None.