textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier air spreading into southwest Utah will limit convection across southern Utah on Tuesday, with isolated to scattered convection developing again across northern Utah. Moisture will increase again on Wednesday, bringing an increased threat of flash flooding across central and southern Utah, before decreasing substantially from Thursday onward. - Significant heat temporarily and marginally subsides on Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing in intensity once again by Thursday onward. High temperatures will only moderate to the upper-90s on the Wasatch Front and mid-100s in the lowest elevations of southern Utah before increasing by upwards of 5-7 degrees over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue, mainly across central Utah, before diminishing after midnight. These showers were aided by a slight increase in moisture today, as PWATs increased to between 1-1.2 inches across much of the forecast area. For Tuesday, expect drier air to spread into the southwestern quadrant of Utah, while a pool of moisture lingers over northern Utah. This will result in scattered convection across northern Utah Tuesday afternoon and evening, and very isolated convective activity across southern Utah. This idea is well supported by various CAMs.

As high pressure over New Mexico amplifies Tuesday night, a brief period of southerly flow will spread some moisture back into the area. This will bring an uptick in convective activity for Wednesday. However, this should be the last gasp for the monsoonal pattern for a little while, as the high pressure will then start to slowly shift westward across Arizona through the weekend. This will spread a drier westerly flow into the area beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend and at least the first half of next week.

Temperatures will continue to trend slightly cooler midweek with the moisture. However, as the airmass dries out and strong high pressure shifts over the area late week and over the weekend, expect a very warm airmass to settle into the area. Global models show H7 temperatures ranging from 20-22C across the forecast area with pockets of up to 23C. Most valleys can expect to see high temperatures of 100 degrees or higher once again (over 110 degrees in Lower Washington County and the Glen Canyon area). The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index is showing a strong signal for anomalously high temperatures during this time. Latest HeatRisk is Major to Extreme for most valleys, especially over the weekend. Models indicate a bit of a cooling trend early next week as the ridge flattens in response to a series of shortwave troughs rippling east near the Canadian border.

AVIATION

KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the valid TAF period with CIGs remaining well above 6000 ft AGL. There is a 20-30 percent chance of light rain showers over or in the vicinity of the terminal through 07z. Expect typical southerly winds will prevail overnight, but winds may be a briefly erratic at times near showers. On Tuesday, expect a wind shift back to northwest between 19-20z. There is a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly between 19-00z. These showers will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The airspace will see prevailing VFR conditions through the valid TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across central and portions of northern Utah will continue to diminish overnight. Erratic and gusty winds remain possible near these showers, otherwise winds will settle into a typical light nighttime drainage pattern overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop Tuesday afternoon, focusing more across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 239 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Moisture will remain in place over the eastern half of Utah today while the western half of the area will remain largely dry as the area battles between drier and wetter air masses. Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be the result over the high terrain features today across central and southern Utah, with more isolated coverage expected across northern Utah. A temporary drying of the lower level environment is expected on Tuesday, greatly reducing the coverage of showers and thunderstorms and allowing for relative humidity to begin its downward trend through the remainder of the week. That said, moisture is expected to make one last push through the area on Wednesday, bringing an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage across the eastern half of the area while the western half remains dry. Thereafter, a significant area wide drying is expected alongside rebuilding of heat as an area of high pressure shifts to the west. As such, anticipate temperatures increasing Thursday forward across the area as well as humidity falling back into the single-digits to low-teens late in the week and through the upcoming weekend.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ101>107-114-124- 128-130.

Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ131.

WY...None.