textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwest winds develop areawide on Wednesday afternoon, strongest across northern and eastern Utah.

- Very dry conditions and gusty winds will result in a period of critical fire weather across portions of southeast and east- central Utah on Wednesday.

- Enhanced afternoon breezes and continued dry conditions may lead to periods of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A dry cold front continues to dig southward through the region today, with gusty winds being observed this evening along and ahead of the frontal boundary across southern Utah. Winds will taper overnight areawide as the associated shortwave ejects eastward.

Calmer winds will once again be short lived as a trailing shortwave trough ejects off the back side of a parent cutoff low digging into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, yielding strong northwesterly flow across the region. As such, gusty northwesterly winds develop areawide by late morning into the early afternoon, with strongest gusts expected across east- central Utah and the Uinta Basin and the West Desert. H7 winds across these areas peak around 40-45 knots late Wednesday evening, with highest probability for gusts to exceed 30 mph occurring late Wednesday into early Thursday morning as as result. With very dry conditions still in place across east-central and southeast Utah on Wednesday, a period of critical fire weather conditions is expected to develop once again. See the Fire Weather discussion below for more datails. Winds quickly taper off across the region through the remainder of Thursday morning.

For the remainder of the week, Utah and southwest Wyoming remain wedged between longwave troughing over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region and a strong ridge off the Pacific Northwest coast. This pattern will maintain a generally zonal flow through the weekend, though weak embedded disturbances may bring elevated afternoon winds Friday through Sunday, resulting in areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions given continued critically low RH values.

Looking into early next week, the axis of the aforementioned ridge gradually shifts eastward, yielding warming temperatures in addition to continued dry conditions through the remainder of the forecast period. Highs are expected to peak around mid-next week around 5 degrees above seasonal averages.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions under predominantly clear skies will prevail across all terminals through the overnight period, with existing cloud cover decrease after sunset. Gusty southwest winds will prevail across southern Utah through around 08Z before weakening, with drainage winds prevailing after 09-10Z. Breezy westerly winds are expected to resume mid- morning tomorrow across a majority of the area, with peak gusts expected to be between 25-30 kts, especially in southwest Wyoming and the Uinta Basin.

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front has moved through northern Utah and will stall and continue to weaken during the early afternoon. Ahead of this front, gusty southerly winds will persist for the southern two-thirds of the state, combining with the continued very dry conditions to produce fairly widespread critical fire weather conditions through Tuesday evening. Some showers and thunderstorms will continue over northern Utah into the early evening, particularly near the Utah/Idaho border, and any storms that develop with have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds. As the trough moves east of the area Wednesday, winds will decrease some over western Utah, but winds will be breezy enough to keep critical fire weather conditions going over southeast Utah. Conditions will continue to be quite dry across the area through at least early next week, but winds are expected to remain on the light side through Saturday. Another northern Utah cold front on Sunday could bring a return to stronger winds, bringing the potential for areas of critical fire weather conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ484-489-493- 494-496-498.

WY...None.