textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 116 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Hot temperatures persist across northern Utah, with a 25% chance KSLC reaches 100F this afternoon. Temperatures across southern Utah will remain near normal for early July.

- An increase in mid level moisture will bring a chance of high based showers and dry thunderstorms Monday across the area, and lingering into Tuesday across the north.

- Hot and dry conditions follow for mid-week, before a strengthening area of high pressure brings additional warming and potentially record high temperatures heading into next weekend.

DISCUSSION, Issued 116 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

A shortwave mid level ridge axis stretches across northern Utah early this afternoon, ahead of a shortwave trough lifting into the western Great Basin. A plume of very warm air associated with this ridge axis is pushing afternoon temperatures into the 90s across northern valleys, and KSLC maintains a 25% chance of reaching 100F for the first time this season per NBM guidance. With this strong heating isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible across the western Uintas and perhaps Bear River ranges of northern Utah. Meanwhile, Mid and high level moisture (at or above 500mb) associated with the western Great Basin trough is spreading across southwest Utah. This will continue through this evening, although meager/shallow instability and very deep and a dry sub-cloud layer will significantly limit any chance for lightning or rain reaching the surface.

This moisture will continue spreading north across the area overnight, as the aforementioned shortwave lifts through the northern Great Basin and eventually northern Rockies. In the absence of large scale forcing Monday afternoon, convection will largely remain terrain driven and likely struggle to spread off the terrain through the afternoon hours given limited instability and a persistent deep sub-cloud layer. That said, isolated to scattered afternoon convection can be expected across the higher terrain from the western Uintas southward into the central and perhaps southern mountains. Additional convection across eastern NV Monday afternoon may hold together into the evening and bring a slight chance for dry thunderstorms across northern Utah.

With this increase in moisture and cooler temperatures aloft, daytime temps will trend slightly cooler Monday and Tuesday over northern Utah, but remain 3-5F above normal. Temperatures across southern Utah will gradually climb during this time. This moisture will begin to erode Tuesday under the influence of a drier southwest flow aloft. However, lingering moisture will support a small chance of terrain based convection, most likely across the north.

Beyond Tuesday, attention shifts to an elongating and strengthening mid level ridge which will become established across the Desert Southwest through midweek, then build northward into the Great Basin by late in the week. Model guidance handles these longwave patterns quite well, thus confidence is high that temperatures will climb during the latter half of the week, and begin challenging daily records as early as Friday. Over the weekend max temps will likely exceed 100F across most valleys. Based on NBM statistics, there is a 33% chance KSLC reaches 105F by Sunday (~10% chance of the all time record of 107F). St George, Zion Canyon, and other low elevation locations across southern Utah will be pushing 110F by Friday, with this heat likely lingering into early the following week. Needless to say, with a prolonged period of hot daytime temperatures and warm overnight lows, there will be an increased risk of heat related illness heading into next weekend.

With the position of this ridge, deeper monsoon moisture will remain south and west of the forecast area through next weekend and into the following week. Although mid level moisture may begin entraining into the high, it still looks like July 14th-15th is the earliest any appreciable monsoon moisture spreads into the forecast area.

AVIATION, Issued 116 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

KSLC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Typical diurnal wind shifts are forecast with winds clocking to northwesterly around 21-22z and southerly by 04z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Typical diurnal wind shifts are forecast at each site with thunderstorm development remaining over the high terrain.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather conditions remain elevated across the state today, as a hot, unstable and very dry airmass remains in place. RH values will remain below 10 percent across most areas below 9000 feet into the evening hours. Additionally, southwest flow spreading across western Utah this afternoon will result in wind gusts into the 20 mph range.

Mid and high level moisture will increase across the area tonight through Monday. This will allow for a chance of high based showers and isolated dry thunderstorms Monday, mainly across the higher terrain from the western Uintas south through Zone 493 in central Utah. Additional thunderstorms may spread out of Nevada and cross zone 478 Monday evening, bringing gusty winds and isolated dry lightning. With this increase in moisture, RH values will trend higher Monday with improved RH recovery Monday night.

A drying southwest to westerly flow will erode much of this moisture Tuesday, however a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will linger over the higher terrain. With low elevation RH values falling into the 10-15 percent range across southwest Utah Tuesday, then trending a bit lower across southern Utah Wednesday, these winds will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions as gusts approach or locally exceed critical thresholds. Have held off on a Fire Weather Watch for now, but will to monitor closely.

A building dome of high pressure will become the dominant weather feature during the middle to latter portion of the week. This will result in a warming and drying trend, with near record temperatures across the region late in the week and into next weekend as most elevations below 6000 feet reach or exceed the 100 degree mark by Saturday. Along with these hot temperatures, very low daytime RH in the single digits along with poor over night recovery will be common by Thursday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.