textproduct: Salt Lake City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- High pressure will bring historically warm weather for March beginning Wednesday, continuing through Saturday. By Thursday, temperatures will be challenging monthly maximum temperature records as they approach 30F above seasonal normals.
- A dry cold front will bring a cooling trend Sunday, though daytime highs will remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
DISCUSSION
Strong high pressure remains in place, currently centered over the Desert Southwest where it is expected to persist through Saturday. Temperatures will continue to rise by a few more degrees, likely peaking on Friday in most areas at 20 to 30 degrees above normal...feeling more akin to early June rather than mid-March. Even monthly temperatures records are likely to be broken, with a select few noted below, per the NBM 5.0:
* KSLC (80 - 2010): There is a less than 10% chance this monthly record is reached Wednesday, 50% Thursday, and a 90% chance Friday as the 25th-75th percentile for max temperature increases to 83-86. * Cedar City (81 - 2004), there is a 75% chance this monthly record is reached Wednesday, and a 95% chance Thursday and Friday (25th-75th percentile 86-89).
* St George (91): There is a 15% chance this record is reached Wednesday, and a 75% chance Thursday, increasing to 95% on Friday (25th-75th percentile 94-96).
On Sunday, a dry cold front will move through the region, dropping temperatures by 10-15 degrees across much of the state and around 5 degrees across far southwestern Utah. Given such antecedent warmth, high temperatures will still be around 10-15 degrees above normal. Beyond Sunday, model guidance points towards another warming trend early in the week, with uncertainty increasing greatly after Wednesday. By Thursday, there is significant 25th-75th percentile spread in 700-mb temperature in the global ensembles, between -6C and +8C (compared to +11C forecast by this Friday), depending on the presence/proximity of a longwave trough.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry conditions with clear skies and diurnally driven winds will continue.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None. WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ277.
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