textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds and low relative humidity will create areas of critical fire weather conditions across southern Utah today.

- A significant widespread heatwave will develop this weekend into early next week, with temperatures challenging daily, monthly, and even all-time high temperature records.

- Monsoonal moisture is expected to spread into the region by the middle of the upcoming week, bringing an elevated threat for flash flooding across southern Utah through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

An area of high pressure currently centered across the Mojave Desert has allowed for continued enhanced southwesterly flow across southern Utah today. This flow pattern has created increasingly dry conditions today, resulting in very limited convective development this afternoon. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through this evening mainly across the high Uintas; otherwise, conditions remain dry and mostly cloud- free across the region.

The aforementioned area of high pressure amplifies across the region on Saturday into Sunday, resulting in an even drier airmass across the region with temperatures rising to record to near- record values through this period across all of Utah and southwest Wyoming. To put this anomalous ridge in context, there is over a 60% chance for H7 temperatures to reach 20C on Sunday; the all-time record high H7 temperature recorded from a KSLC upper-air sounding data currently stands at 20.2C. As such, while daily and monthly records will definitely be challenged this weekend, some locations may set new all-time high temperature records. Most notably, Logan has a 70%+ chance to meet or exceed its current record high of 103F on Sunday. Evanston also has a 60%+ chance to meet or exceed its current all-time record high of 95F on both Sunday and Monday. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect for most Utah valley locations through Monday morning, then becomes more confined to central and northern Utah through Tuesday morning as the ridge shifts northeastward and allows highs to decrease across southern Utah. Given the potential for all-time high records to fall across southwest Wyoming, the Extreme Heat Warning has been expanded into Uinta County, WY between Saturday and Monday. Note that warm overnight lows are expected, especially later in the weekend into early next week as increasing mid-level moisture moves in on the western periphery of the ridge.

We're still monitoring a surge of monsoonal moisture early to mid-next week, with models still in consistent agreement on PWATs 1+" becoming widespread across the region by Tuesday. While this pattern will be supportive of higher flash flooding risk especially across southern Utah, days of highest concern remain uncertain at this time. What we do know is that we can expect a gradual decrease in temperatures through next week, with increasing chances for widespread precipitation areawide.

AVIATION, Issued 1123 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail through the valid TAF period under mostly sunny skies. Light and variable winds will transition to northwesterly most likely around 1930-2000z, though this could occur as early as 19z. Winds will gradually veer towards southeasterly between 03-04z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected areawide through the valid TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the high terrain of northern Utah east of the I-15 corridor this afternoon between 19-00z. Expect southwesterly winds this afternoon around 10-15kts across much of the area before turning more light and terrain-driven during the overnight hours after 03z or so.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated southwesterly winds prevail through this evening across portions of southern Utah, and when combined with critically dry conditions already in place, will produce a period of critical fire weather conditions. Winds become lighter and overnight humidity recoveries become increasingly poorer this weekend as a strong area of high pressure develops across the Intermountain West. This pattern will also favor the development of dangerously hot temperatures this weekend into early next week, especially across northern and eastern Utah. Increasing mid-level moisture and attendant cloud cover will allow temperatures to moderate a few degrees Monday, with a gradual cooling trend continuing through mid-week as monsoonal moisture is pulled into the region. Monsoonal moisture becomes widespread across the state by Tuesday, which will kick off a favorable pattern for widespread precipitation capable of producing wetting rains as well as create flash flooding concerns. Overall, expect a gradual increase in RH values through next week, with improvement in overnight humidity recoveries.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ101>108-114-116-118>121.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ115-122-128>131.

Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ495-496-498.

WY...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ021.