textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated convection across southern Utah today and tomorrow.

- 50% chance for widespread precipitation Sunday-Tuesday that will have a tropical moisture source.

DISCUSSION

Mostly dry and stable conditions with near normal temperatures will persist for the region through Saturday. The one exception will be across portions of southern and southeastern Utah where they remain on the periphery of tropical moisture that is currently spread across the eastern Rockies and western plains. Forcing for these storms today will be limited which will keep most of the isolated convection across the higher terrain, but rainfall rates could be heavy at times. Friday seems to have a bit more coverage in precipitation across eastern/southeastern Utah as a shortwave moves through the area and provides more forcing for storms.

Guidance continues to trend towards the wetter solution for the trough that will move through early next week. Now 50% of members are marrying this trough with tropical moisture from Hurricane Polo as it makes landfall in western Mexico and treks to the east. The other 50% of members keep a bulk of this moisture across New Mexico and Colorado. If the wetter solution plays out then the risk for flash flooding will increase across the area given that soils are moist from the past several weeks of monsoon moisture. The coolest air of the season will accompany the airmass that moves in behind a cold front that is ushered in by the trough.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will continue at the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. The terminal is currently experiencing southeasterly winds before switching to diurnally-driven northwesterly winds around 18-19Z and back again to a southeasterly flow around 4z this evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail at all TAFs sites through the period with winds remaining light and diurnally driven. There is a chance for some showers and thunderstorms developing over the terrain of southern Utah this afternoon, however the chance of thunderstorms occuring at the southern terminal is less than 20%.

FIRE WEATHER

A relatively quiet and seasonable pattern will continue for the next several days as dry air and stable conditions cover most of the region. Moisture across the Four Corners will keep isolated storms possible across southern and southeastern Utah today and tomorrow. Most of this activity will be confined to the higher terrain, but rain rates could be heavy given the moisture content. Winds will start to increase out of the southwest this weekend ahead of an approaching storm that could mix with tropical moisture for widespread heavy precipitation early next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.