textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1048 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered, generally weak, diurnal convection can be expected through Friday, otherwise dry and stable through the end of the week.

- An approaching trough will bring cooler temperatures and the potential for more widespread precipitation on Monday, with amounts being dependent on its ability to tap tropical moisture.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1048 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Utah is on the western periphery of a mean upper ridge covering much of the central CONUS. Weak troughiness permeating this ridge across Arizona through Utah and into western Colorado on Thursday will result in isolated to widely scattered and generally weak diurnal convection over the higher terrain of southern Utah, as moisture availability remains rather low to aid anything particularly substantial. Main threats from convection will be locally gusty winds.

On Friday, southwesterly winds will increase ahead of an upper trough grazing northern Utah Friday night. This trough will maintain a threat of widely scattered convection, mainly over the higher terrain and eastern valleys before a drier airmass arrives on Saturday.

Focus then shifts to an upper trough that is forecast to deepen off the West Coast by Sunday morning. While there is still some model spread regarding the strength of this trough, it will have the potential to bring more widespread precipitation to the area. However, precipitation amounts will be dependent on how much tropical moisture the trough will be able to tap from tropical systems Polo and Odalys in the eastern Pacific. This will also be partially dependent on the strength of the trough. The 19z NBM mean has higher QPF than the 50th percentile, which generally shows less than 0.1 inches in most valleys over a 24-hr period on Sunday. Current forecast has high PoPs but maintains modest QPF for this period pending better model agreement. By midweek, a weak ridge to more of a zonal flow pattern will become established over the area, with should bring a return to drier conditions.

Temperature-wise, expect a gradual warming trend through the weekend, then cooler temperatures behind the trough on Monday. Temperatures should then gradually climb through midweek.

AVIATION, Issued 1048 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

KSLC...VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period. Southeasterly winds will persist overnight before switching to northwest late Thursday morning. This change may occur as early as 16Z, however speeds will likely remain less than 6 kts through early afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail at all TAFs sites through the period with winds remaining light and diurnally driven. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop over the terrain of southern Utah Thursday afternoon, however the chance of thunderstorms at KCDC and KSGU is less than 20%.

FIRE WEATHER

Conditions will stay generally dry and stable across Utah through the weekend with seasonable temperatures and light and terrain driven winds. The exception to this will be over the higher terrain of southern Utah, where some moisture will linger, resulting in isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. The potential for precipitation returns early next week with the passage of a trough.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.