textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will impact from roughly I-70 to a line roughly north of Cedar City to north of Bryce Canyon to north of Bullfrog as well as the Raft River Range and the higher terrain of northern and central Utah Saturday afternoon and evening.

- There is a 50% chance of southerly wind gusts in excess of 45 mph across western Utah on Tuesday.

- Locally critical fire weather conditions due to strong wind and low humidity will occur across portions of southern Utah as early as Tuesday in areas where fuels are critical.

DISCUSSION

Northwest to west flow remains in place across Utah this evening. Isolated showers continue along a quasi-stationary boundary across southern Utah. While coverage will be less Saturday, additional isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along this remnant boundary Saturday afternoon and evening, with additional isolated convection along the higher terrain of northern and central Utah as well as near the Raft Rivers. Instability is limited...at best SBCAPE values around 100-150 J/kg. Though microburst winds cannot be ruled out in the very dry airmass in place, there is a less than 10% chance of microburst winds greater than 45 mph.

Broad upper level ridging will continue to shift into the Interior West through Sunday...with a corresponding rise in temperatures. Expect temperatures more reminiscent of mid-June Sunday into Monday to herald in the unofficial start of summer.

Guidance has shifted toward the majority of members indicating a Pacific trough will gradually close off over the Interior West Monday into Tuesday and gradually fill and weaken through the end of the week. While the broad pattern is becoming more certain, the position of this upper level low on a given day varies widely across the ensemble system. Thus trying to tease out timing of the highest precipitation chances between Tuesday and Friday is difficult at best. The most probable statement for this period is that temperatures will be closer to normal, with periods of showers and thunderstorms across the region during the afternoon and evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions with terrain driven winds will be the norm across the area through Saturday afternoon. There is a 10% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm after 18Z Saturday in the vicinity of KCDC.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will once again develop across portions of central and southern Utah and the higher terrain of northern Utah Saturday afternoon and evening. There is little chance of wetting rain with these storms.

Temperatures will continue to increase through the holiday weekend. Minimum RH will be around 10-15 percent across most areas through the weekend and up to 20-30 percent across higher terrain.

More active weather will return Monday as southerly winds begin to increase ahead of the next storm system. The threat of gusty and erratic outflow winds will increase as showers and thunderstorms develop, particularly between late Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Timing uncertainty still remains, though critical fire weather conditions are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons in particular given strong winds and low RH...potentially lasting through Thursday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.