textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will continue through at least Thursday.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur across central and southern Utah Tuesday into Wednesday given enhanced southwesterly winds coupled with low humidities.

- The next monsoon surge is increasing in probability to begin on Friday...which will be the next chance for measurable rainfall for the vast majority of the region.

DISCUSSION

Largely quiescent conditions will continue through at least Wednesday as dry, southwesterly to westerly flow persists. Utah and southwest Wyoming remain on the upstream periphery of a broad ridge stretching across much of the southern US, resulting in an overall subsident regime. A bit of lingering low-level moisture may result in isolated afternoon showers both today and Monday, though these will be fairly weak and unimpactful.

The only interesting large-scale feature early this week is a grazing shortwave trough that will move across the Interior West late Tuesday through Wednesday. This will produce slightly stronger southwesterly winds statewide with locally critical fire weather conditions, though 700-mb winds only increase to around 20kts at best. Additionally, with weak lift just ahead of this shortwave, scattered showers are likely to develop across portions of northern Utah Tuesday evening before drier air moves in by Wednesday morning.

Following the shortwave trough, high pressure will begin to strengthen over the Desert Southwest, though some subtle uncertainty remains on the exact position of this ridge. Model guidance favors this ridge axis settling over the Four Corners by Friday, resulting in increasing monsoonal moisture once again. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as Thursday afternoon across far southern Utah, with higher confidence in thunderstorm activity across much of the area on Friday and into the weekend.

AVIATION

KSLC...Predominantly VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. South winds are expected to shift southwesterly 17Z-19Z, and finally northwesterly between 19z and 21Z. There is a small chance (10-30%) that afternoon thunderstorms fire off the Oquirrh Mountains and drift into the valley in the vicinity of the airfield between 21Z and 00Z. Otherwise, winds will shift to the southeast between 3Z and 5Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the valid TAF period. A line of weak showers will push northeastward from north of KSLC to KLGU this morning. Otherwise, Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop again this afternoon, mainly along the higher terrain of Utah into Uinta County, WY. Generally light winds with typical diurnal trends are expected at area terminals.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 301 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A drying and warming trend will continue across the region. This will bring near critical to critical humidities as early as today across many valley locations. These low humidities will continue through Friday before another monsoon surge begins to impact the region. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of central and southern Utah.

The next chance for wetting rains will be Friday, especially across the higher terrain.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.