textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions will give way to widespread valley rain and mountain snow on Saturday.

- Two more storms arrive next week with the first on Tuesday/Wednesday that looks very similar to the Saturday storm, and another towards the end of the week that has high-end scenario potential, but run-to-run consistency has been lacking.

DISCUSSION

Dry conditions with clear skies and inversion conditions will start to give way to a pattern change tomorrow as southerly winds begin to increase, clouds move into the area, and some spotty showers start to develop ahead of a trough. An area of low pressure currently off the central coast of California can be seen clear on visible satellite. This low will continue to move towards the east and make landfall across SoCal Friday morning. Additionally, a trough will be pushing into the PNW which will be responsible for the widespread precipitation on Saturday.

The widespread precipitation associated with the low pressure system moving into the southwest will mostly stay in Arizona, although some moisture will be advected into Utah as southerly flow increases ahead of the incoming PNW trough. This moisture will result in some showers Friday afternoon and evening, primarily across the terrain from southwestern Utah up through central and northern Utah. Snow levels will be high (>9000 feet) with the highest QPF for areas further south. There probably won't be much of a distinguishable break in the precipitation across mountain locations associated with the low to our south and the incoming PNW trough. The trough will bring a cold front into the Wasatch Front that stretches down the I-15 corridor between 4-7am. This will bring a line of moderate rain with isolated pockets of heavier precipitation. Flow aloft will transition to northwesterly behind the front which will allow for some enhanced snow rates in areas that are favored in northwest flow like the upper Cottonwoods. Snow totals are generally 4-8", but areas that do well in northwest flow could verify closer to the 75th-90th percentile which is in the 12"-15" range.

This activity will wrap up by Saturday evening with ridging quickly building back into the region for Sunday and Monday. Another very similarly looking storm arrives Tuesday/Wednesday that could provide similar amounts of QPF and snow with slightly lower snow levels by 500-1000 feet. Quickly on the heels of this Tuesday/Wednesday storm will be another storm on Thursday/Friday. This storm has a higher potential for more snow and closer to valley floors, but there has been little run-to-run consistency amongst the models to dig into the details too much with this one until we get closer to the event.

AVIATION

KSLC...Mostly clear to clear skies with VFR conditions prevail into early Friday, with diurnally normal wind shifts expected (NW ~18- 20Z, back SE ~01-03Z). As high pressure shifts east of the area, VFR cloud cover gradually increases, and southerly winds increase. Southerly winds are expected to be maintained through Friday, with some modest gusts up to around 25 kts. There is around a 10-20% chance of an isolated light shower after 21Z Friday or so.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Area terminals expected to see mostly clear to clear skies with diurnally normal to light variable winds into early Friday. High pressure will begin to then shift east of the area, allowing VFR cloud cover to increase into the day Friday. Southerly winds will also increase, especially after sunrise, with many terminals (especially exposed ones) seeing modest gusts develop by late morning.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.