textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing winds will bring the potential of critical fire weather conditions to southwest Utah on Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions will become more widespread for the weekend as winds strengthen further.

- The threat of heat-related illness will increase Wednesday through at least Saturday across most Utah valleys, especially for those who are sensitive to the heat, those without adequate cooling or hydration, and those with chronic health conditions.

DISCUSSION

Utah and southwest Wyoming are under a dry west to southwest flow aloft in weak ridging between a weak low off the Pacific coast and a trough moving north of the area. This will suppress convection and allow the warming trend to continue, with maxes averaging 5-7F above seasonal normals across the area.

Conditions will stay dry through Saturday, with the warming trend accelerating as the troughs move away from the area and a broad Pacific high builds in. Highs will peak on Saturday, with maxes up to 15F above seasonal normals, most noticeable over northern portions of the area. The increasing temperatures will bring the HeatRisk into the moderate category, so sensitive groups should see some increase in heat-related impacts.

Winds will increase modestly over southern Utah by Thursday with one last trough moving north of the area, which could result in some critical fire weather conditions. After a decrease in winds Friday, they are expected to pick up in earnest over the weekend as a Pacific Northwest trough moves onshore, resulting in more widespread critical fire weather conditions. Confidence is increasing in that system bringing a mostly dry front through the area on Sunday, with temperatures then rebounding for the upcoming work week.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace. Dry and stable conditions with a few high clouds will continue with light and diurnally driven winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Very dry conditions will continue for the next several days, particularly over southern Utah. Thus, the potential for critical fire weather conditions will be determined by changes in wind speed. Winds look to pick up Thursday, particularly over southern Utah where some gusts up to 35 mph look likely. Therefore, have issued a Fire Weather Watch for the southeastern zones. Winds are expected to decrease a bit Friday, but locally critical fire weather conditions can still be expected. As a stronger storm system approaching the Pacific Northwest coast over the weekend winds should increase more substantially, and there is increasing confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions where fuels are dry for Saturday and Sunday, and likely beyond.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for UTZ496-498.

WY...None.