textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely isolated showers possible late Thursday afternoon into the evening across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming with a weak system. Best chances noted in high terrain.

- Modestly strong wind gusts around 25-45 mph will develop across portions of Washington County Friday morning to evening, primarily in the Pine Valley Mountains area and favorably oriented canyons such as Black Ridge Canyon.

- A stretch of more mild and dry weather is expected Friday into the middle of next week or so as ridging becomes the dominant influence.

DISCUSSION

A seasonably cool start to the morning across the region, with some patchy fog noted in places such as the Uinta Basin, Cache Valley, Bear River Valley, and other some other sheltered mountain valleys. This will continue to lift and scatter out as the day progresses. Mid to upper level cloud cover is also gradually increasing as a shortwave trough continues to move in. Moisture with this feature is pretty limited overall, but high resolution models do at least carry a low end chance at some isolated showers from around mid afternoon to evening for portions of northern Utah to southwest Wyoming. The best chances are noted across the higher terrain, especially the Uintas. Would also not entirely rule out some patchy fog development late night into the morning again in similar areas that saw fog development this morning.

Impacts wise, the only thing of note with this system is some development of modest wind gusts around 25-45 mph across portions of the Pine Valley Mountains and gaps into favorably SW to NE oriented canyons (such as Black Ridge) as the trough sinks deeper into the Four Corners region. These look to increase by Friday morning, become maximized late Friday evening, and finally decrease through the overnight hours.

Overall, ridging gradually becomes the dominant forecast influence moving towards the weekend and on into the upcoming week. This will allow for a period of drier and more stable weather, with temperatures gradually warming back to above seasonal normal. A few grazing systems look to bring periods of increased cloud cover, but precipitation chances will remain very low.

Models show fairly good consensus in precipitation chances not really increasing until around Thursday next week at the earliest. Even then, there is a good deal of spread in those details of how any such potential system moves in, how much moisture accompanies it, and how long any unsettled period would last. Still, at least there remains a favorable signal for something in that extended range.

AVIATION

KSLC...A weak system will bring increased VFR cloud cover through Thursday night. There is a low chance (around 10%) of a light shower between 21Z thursday to 02Z Friday. Winds will tend to be light and follow a diurnally normal pattern into Thursday night. Some periods of light and variable winds are then likely overnight into mid morning Friday before winds shift back to favoring NW.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A quick moving but fairly weak system will pass through the region into Thursday night. This will bring increased VFR cloud cover, and a low chance (around 10%) of light showers ~21-02Z to northern terminals. Winds will tend to be light (less than 10 kts) and follow a diurnally normal pattern, if not become light and variable at times. There is some potential (around 20-30%) noted for the redevelopment of patchy BR/FG in sheltered mountain valleys Thursday night into Friday morning.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.