textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 225 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- A Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall is in place across southwest Utah today with a Marginal and Slight Risk (Levels 1 to 2 of 4) for much of the rest of Utah. Especially across southwest Utah, many streams, normally dry washes, slot canyons and rivers will run high from 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally up to 3+ inches in the Pine Valleys and near Brian Head.

- Windy conditions will track northward with the remnant circulation from Rachel. High winds across southwest Utah this morning will slow decrease this afternoon, while central into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming will see winds peak through 9 PM this evening. Widespread 45 to 60 mph wind gusts in the valleys with gusts up to 80 mph in the mountains. Especially in the mountains, saturated soils will make it easier to down trees.

- The potential for severe thunderstorms exists across southern and eastern Utah Sunday into Monday morning. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts and possibly isolated tornadoes.

- Rachel's moisture is expected to interact with a Pacific Northwest low that is then forecast to move across Utah and southwest Wyoming Monday into Tuesday, with some precipitation lingering into Wednesday. This will bring another round of widespread precipitation along with much cooler temperatures and lowering snow levels, bringing the potential for significant mountain snow.

DISCUSSION, Issued 225 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Rachel's remnant circulation has become hard to pinpoint, and has evolved more into an open wave tracking northward across west- central Utah and is riding along a defined frontal boundary in place through northwest Utah. This afternoon the remnant low continue to track north-northeastward likely crossing near the Great Salt Lake by early this evening. On the south side of the low, the strongest winds are in place, where 50-65 knots 700 mb jet is tracking. This will continue to progress northward spreadinggusty southwest winds of largely 45-55 mph across northern Utah valleys between 2 PM and 9 PM. However, with such strong winds near ridge top level, the Central Mountains, Wasatch Mountains, and Uinta Mountains will peak gusts 60-75 mph, with locally higher ridgetop winds of 80+ mph. In addition, normally downslope prone areas in southwesterly flow, like the north tips of the Oquirrh and Stansbury Mountains along I-80 are expected to see localized higher gusts to around 65 mph as well. For this have pulled a Wind Advisory north across much of Northern Utah (outside of the Cache Valley and Eastern Box Elder County), and a High Wind Warning through the Tooele Valley (for the aforementioned I-80 impacts), as well as Uinta County Wyoming where it will be easier to mix the higher momentum air to the surface, especially on the divides east of Evanston along I-80. There remains a medium chance that western and southwestern corners of the Salt Lake Valley see some isolated wind gusts to 60 mph, as well as portions of the Wasatch Back, and will watch that closely for a potential short-fuse upgrade of the wind headline.

The main frontal band of precipitation ahead of the approaching low has locked in across northwest Utah, from Ibapah to Wendover to Snowville, which has left a dry slot with some showers moving through the Wasatch Front and Wasatch Mountains this afternoon. As the low moves through this evening, and the flow switches back to the northwest, the frontal band will push back into Wasatch Front and Mountains bringing a period of moderate rain again this evening. Across southern Utah, a persistent moderate band of precipitation has been working slowly eastward, having already brought flash flooding to the Forsyth Burn Scar earlier today. Localized rainfall reports exceeding 3 inches already in the Pine Valley Mountains. Expect this trend will continue for favored upslope locations in the higher terrain like near Brian Head through the afternoon, with 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals for lower elevation locations. Expect many streams, normally dry washes and slot canyons to run high as this area of more widespread rain moves through this evening.

By Monday through Wednesday, the slow moving upper-level low will continue to interact with the tropical moisture left behind over the area. Monday will continue with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall, as we see redevelopment of widespread showers and thunderstorms across the state. Prone areas like burn scars, dry washes and slot canyons will continue to be the primary threats, but there will remain potential for urban flooding issues if any heavy rain can track over a population center. By Monday night through Tuesday night, the upper level low will start moving more overhead across Utah, lowering snow levels. This will eventually bring accumulating snow to the Uintas and the Upper Cottonwoods, largely above 8000 feet, with more significant amounts possible above 9000 feet. Finally as the upper low moves through and brings colder air across the area, portions of central and southwest Utah (above Washington County) may see their first freeze of the season. The highest chances (medium to high confidence) of sub 32 degrees in the valleys is in the Sanpete and Sevier Valleys, as well as Iron and Beaver County around and outside of Cedar City and Beaver.

After all the activity, high pressure is then expected to bring a warming and drying trend for much of the latter half of the upcoming week.

AVIATION, Issued 225 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

KSLC...Periods of variable flow will be possible over the airfield before around 20-21Z as passing showers dictate flow direction. By 20-21Z, southerly winds are expected to resume over the airfield as rainfall becomes more persistent. South winds are expected to gust at 20-25 kts, increasing to upwards of 40kts for a brief period between 22-00Z. Thereafter, northwest winds are anticipated to push over the airfield alongside rainfall with increasing intensity. Rainfall may become moderate to heavy at times, dropping visibility into the 3-5SM range alongside CIGs dropping to as low as 3kft AGL. This rain will prevail through around 04-05Z before diminishing until around 07Z, allowing for southerly winds to return over the airfield.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Strong south to southwest winds are expected across a majority of Utah and southwest Wyoming through the late-afternoon to early-evening hours, with winds shifting across the norther area to the northwest between 23Z and 03Z. Widespread areas of persistent light to moderate rainfall across the western half of Utah will bring CIGs down to around 5kft AGL and visibility dropping to as low as 3SM under heavier rainfall. Generally widespread rainfall is anticipated to continue through the overnight hours, bringing similar aviation hazards (strong erratic winds, lower VIS, and lower CIGs).

FIRE WEATHER

Strong southwesterly winds will continue this afternoon and diminish tonight as the remnants of a tropical storm move across Utah trough this evening. Deep tropical moisture with this storm will also bring high chances of wetting rain across much of the area. Although the tropical remnants exit the area tonight into Monday, a slow moving storm system will interact with the moisture in place to continue to bring high wetting rain chances through at least early Wednesday. Also, by Monday night into Tuesday, snow levels will lower enough to result in generally accumulating snow over the higher terrain, with potentially significant accumulations above about 9000 feet in the Uintas and far Upper Cottonwoods. High pressure is expected to return late week bringing warmer and drier conditions. However, there is a less then 25 percent chance that the storm system will continue to linger over the area, which would maintain unsettled conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for UTZ101>131.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ101-104>106-108.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ102.

Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ110>112-116-117- 119-126-127.

High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ115-122-125.

WY...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for WYZ021.