textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoonal moisture looks to bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of UT through Friday before drying out this weekend.

- Below-normal temperatures look to develop tomorrow, persisting through Monday before a return to seasonally-normal temperatures.

- Monsoonal moisture looks to return to the area Monday, potentially persisting through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure remains in place across the Four Corners with UT settled well within a southwest flow regime serving to push monsoonal moisture across the area. Currently, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing and forecast to increase in coverage throughout the afternoon into the evening. PWATs in excess of 1" will overspread much of UT with southwest UT potentially seeing PWAT's in excess of 1.3" per mesoanalysis. This will enable mature storms to produce heavy rainfall this afternoon, potentially yielding a flash flooding threat for slow-moving storms, especially those over problematic terrain.

As the ridge progresses east somewhat tomorrow afternoon, this will allow a trough over the PNW to deepen somewhat resulting in stronger forcing over the area tomorrow afternoon into Friday afternoon. Friday remains somewhat uncertain regarding the flooding threat given moisture quality is up in the air, though tomorrow looks to maintain robust moisture across much of the state potentially enhancing the flooding threat. Additionally, stronger ascent via the aforementioned trough may potentially yield more widespread mature storms, increasing the flash flood risk on a larger scale. One failure mode with tomorrow regarding flash flooding will be faster storm motions, though training storms remains possible tomorrow afternoon which may offset this.

Come Saturday and Sunday, low-level moisture will decrease following the passage of a cold front. Mid-upper moisture remains in place, however, resulting in daily afternoon thunderstorms persisting across higher terrain across much of UT in the afternoon hours. Additionally, this will serve to lower afternoon temperatures to roughly 10F below average across much of the state.

On Monday, the ridge looks to retrogress west centering itself over the Four Corners region once again, opening up UT to more monsoonal moisture return. As of now, chances appear rather favorable for the monsoonal moisture pattern to continue through much of next week, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to much of UT once again. Additionally, temperatures look to remain moderated following a brief warm-up into Monday with seasonally normal temperatures persisting through at least Wednesday.

AVIATION...KSLC

The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions throughout the day. Northwesterly winds are expected to return to the south by 14Z before shifting back to the south between 18Z and 20Z. There is a 20 percent chance winds stay northerly or light and variable during the morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop once again, with a 30 percent chance of storms impacting the terminal, primarily during the late afternoon and early evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected across the airspace today with generally light and terrain driven winds from thunderstorms. Convective activity is expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours across northern Utah, with scattered showers and thunderstorms again developing across the area this afternoon, persisting into the evening. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds, bringing a low chance of mountain obscurations and temporary MVFR conditions due to heavy rainfall.

FIRE WEATHER

The Four Corners high pressure continues to persist resulting in continued monsoonal moisture across UT bringing daily showers and thunderstorms to much of the state. While a widespread wetting rain is not expected this afternoon, Thursday afternoon appears to bring the highest chance of a wetting rain through this stretch across much of the state as the high pressure slides east somewhat with a storm system moving in its wake through Friday. Come Saturday and Sunday, a drier airmass moves into the state keeping showers and thunderstorms mostly confined to higher terrain. On Monday, high pressure moves back west somewhat potentially bringing monsoonal moisture back to UT.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.