textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1001 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- The threat for severe weather, specifically gusty winds in excess of 58 mph, is waning across the region late this evening, though nocturnal convection may still produce gusty and erratic winds through early Wednesday morning. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across much of UT and southwest WY each afternoon within this forecast as monsoonal moisture lingers.

- The risk for flash flooding remains elevated through Wednesday, with much of UT outlined within a slight risk (2/4) of exceeding flash flood guidance.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1001 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The threat for severe winds we've observed across much of northern and eastern Utah this evening will wane through the remainder of tonight as instability decreases across the area. High-res models hint at the potential for some gusty, downsloping outflow winds into the Uinta Basin into early Wednesday morning, but are likely to stay sub-severe (<58 kts) given an increasingly unfavorable environment as DCAPE decreases across the area. Nocturnal showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight across much of the region through around mid-to-late morning.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop once again along the high terrain Wednesday afternoon, with a potentially more efficient heavy rainfall threat across much of the region, as supported by a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall from WPC across much of Utah and southwest Wyoming. Weaker flow aloft will create favorable conditions for storms to become anchored to terrain, which exacerbates the flash flood risk for tomorrow. As usual, areas of highest concern include normally dry washes, slot canyons, and recent burn scars. Those planning to head outdoors in these areas tomorrow should reconsider plans. Those living in a location vulnerable to flash flooding should have multiple ways to receive warnings.

Thursday onward, we'll see a gradual downtrend in monsoonal moisture areawide as an upper-level trough off the coast of the PacNW introduces drier southwesterly flow across the region. However, ample amounts of moisture will linger across the region through the weekend, with PWATs in the 0.7-1.0" range. As we remain under the influence of the broad ridging pattern into at least the early weekend, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through this period, though with lower flash flooding risk and better potential for potentially strong to severe storms.

AVIATION

KSLC...Monsoonal pattern continues. Outside of precipitation influences, winds will favor a diurnally normal pattern. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be especially possible near thunderstorms, with more modestly gusty conditions with showers. There will be around a 20-30% chance of showers/thunderstorms overnight. Thunderstorm chances then increase late morning through Wednesday afternoon and evening. VFR conditions favored to persist, but any heavier cell over the terminal may result in brief periods of reduced CIGS/VIS.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...An active weather pattern will persist as monsoonal moisture remains. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms will persist across the area overnight. Area wide thunderstorm activity then will begin to once again increase in coverage late morning on through Wed evening. This activity will bring periods of heavy rainfall, lightning, gusty and erratic outflow winds, and potentially small hail. Outside of precipitation and outflow influences, winds at area terminals will favor a diurnally normal pattern and direction. VFR conditions are also favored to generally prevail, but any stronger cell directly atop a terminal will bring potential for periods of reduced CIGS/VIS.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 116 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Monsoonal moisture remains in place throughout UT increasing humidities and chances for showers / thunderstorms across the state, helping moderating fire weather conditions statewide. Chances for showers and thunderstorms see a notable uptick across the entirety of the state today as a stronger monsoonal push arrives this afternoon. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along higher terrain parallel to I-15 each afternoon over the next several days around 1200-1400 with gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning. Some storms this afternoon, particularly across northwest UT and southeast UT may feature severe wind gusts in excess of 58mph. Winds will generally remain light terrain driven / diurnal over the next several days other than thunderstorm influenced winds and gusts.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ113-115>131.

WY...None.