textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Moisture is pushing into southwestern Utah and will continue to gradually shift north and east with convection developing across central and northern Utah on Tuesday.

- Moisture remains elevated across the Four Corners through the week which will keep diurnal convection possible across southeastern Utah with dry conditions elsewhere in Utah.

DISCUSSION

Moisture is starting to push into the southwestern portions of Utah with reflectivity on radar, however this rain is struggling to make it to the surface. RH across these areas are between 20% (lower elevation) up to 60% across the higher elevations. It will take a bit for the PBL to moisten, especially given the light rainfall rates. This activity is thanks to an upper level low that is currently centered over central California. This low will continue to move east with precipitation developing across eastern Nevada and western Utah this afternoon and evening.

This activity shifts into central and northern Utah on Tuesday with morning showers transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms. There will be plenty of shear (40+ kts) and steep lapse rates, although the CAPE will be marginal. This will favor quasi-linear storms that will be capable of producing gusty winds for areas near and east of the Wasatch and in Castle country. The storm motion with these will be rather fast, so that will limit the threat of any flash flooding to areas that are highly sensitive or areas where training thunderstorms occur.

This low pushes out of the area by Wednesday with a return to near seasonal temperatures and dry/stable conditions. The one exception will be across eastern and southeastern Utah as moisture remains elevated.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail at the KSLC terminal through the entire forecast period. Light northwesterly will persist at the terminal before switching to diurnally-driven light southeasterly flow around 4Z. The chances of some showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will increase tomorrow between 10-18Z, although the exact placement of those showers or storms remain uncertain.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to persist across all terminals through the TAF period with diurnal wind shifts. Showers will continue to impact the southern terminals this afternoon into the evening but impacts will be limited. More showers and thunderstorms might develop this evening in southwestern Utah and propagate north into central and northern Utah.

FIRE WEATHER

An area of low pressure is moving into the Great Basin. This is bringing an increase in cloud cover and showers to southwestern Utah. This activity will gradually shift north and east overnight with showers and thunderstorms developing across central and northern Utah on Tuesday. These storms on Tuesday will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds along with frequent lightning, small hail, and brief heavy rain.

This activity moves out of Utah on Wednesday, but moisture will remain elevated across the Four Corners with diurnal convection possible across southeastern portions of Utah, but confidence in details remain low on these storms. The heaviest precipitation looks to remain across New Mexico and Colorado. Otherwise, winds will remain light and diurnally driven through the week with near normal temperatures.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.