textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to potentially record breaking heat will develop this weekend into early next week, persisting through mid-week.

- Widespread anomalous heat, single-digit daytime RH, and poor overnight humidity recoveries developing Sunday and persisting through at least Tuesday.

- Next chance of precipitation arrives midweek as a trough approaches from the PNW.

DISCUSSION

Another grazing shortwave will keep temperatures on the milder side, relative to the upcoming pattern. Temperatures tomorrow will run just a couple of degrees cooler than today. There is little moisture to work with, but an isolated mountain shower can't be ruled out during the afternoon with this shortwave passage. Otherwise, temperatures start to dramatically warm on Sunday as a ridge builds into the area. The heat peaks Monday and Tuesday with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for most valleys and near 100 degrees across lower Washington county.

There are a couple of scenarios of how the pattern will evolve by the middle of next week. The first scenario (~36% of ensemble members) has a trough moving into the PNW will shift the ridge axis east and bring some cooler temperatures and the chance for precipitation. Moisture does increase ahead of this trough as southerly flow is enhanced from the ridge to our southeast and trough to our northwest will help pull moisture from the Baja into Utah. This moisture will interact with the approaching trough to develop some convection across the area by the middle of next week. The second scenario (64% of ensemble members) keeps a cutoff low off the California coast with mostly dry conditions, but still a slight cooling effect from the trough axis shifting east.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. Light, terrain driven winds persist overnight for all regional terminals, with post- frontal northwesterly winds developing late morning to early afternoon across the region.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will continue to build into the region through Saturday, bringing near record temperatures and very dry conditions. By Sunday, many areas will see low teens to single digit humidities with poor to very poor overnight recoveries.

There is little relief in this pattern through at least Tuesday as peak heating is expected Monday and Tuesday. There is ~35% chance in convection returning by Wednesday as temperatures start to gradually cool due to the ridge axis moving east.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.