textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy rain has mostly ended over southern Utah, but Areal Flood Warnings remain in effect for areas that continue to have elevated flows.

- Precipitation will continue to become increasingly focused over northern portions of the area tonight into Friday morning. This will bring accumulating snow to the higher terrain, with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches likely above 9000 feet. There is a chance of locally higher amounts for favored locations.

- Cool and somewhat unsettled conditions will continue this weekend, with the best chance of precipitation over southern Utah. A more active pattern is expected to persist into the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

An unusually moisture rich southerly flow persists over Utah and southwest Wyoming this evening ahead of a splitting Pacific low centered over the Great Basin. The northern portion of this split is nosing into western Utah and will move northeast across the area through Friday morning. Earlier rain, heavy at times, was focused over central and southern Utah, where the best jet support was located. However, the movement of the northern branch of the trough is moving the best instability over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, which will be the focus of precipitation during the overnight hours. While there will be some embedded heavier rates, the precipitation will overall be more stratiform in nature, leading to less of a risk of flooding. With the risk of rain primarily leaving central and southern Utah tonight, have canceled the going Flood Watch. Areal Flood Warnings remain in effect for areas that continue to see higher flows.

Most precipitation will end across the area Friday morning, with some lingering moisture and instability over northern portions of the area, particularly near the Utah/Idaho border, keeping a threat of showers in the forecast through the afternoon. Highs, which have been on the mild side all week, will tend to run 5-10F across the area, with the greatest departure from normal over southern Utah.

As the northern branch of the splitting low exits into Montana and beyond, the southern branch of the trough is expected to slowly track across the Desert Southwest over the weekend. This will keep things relatively cool with continued unsettled weather. Scattered showers will primarily be focused over southeast Utah on Saturday, with the threat spreading into the higher terrain of northern Utah by Sunday with the low expected to make a northeastward jog.

By Monday, high temperatures are expected to return to near seasonal normals as weak ridging moves overhead, most likely bring a dry day to the area. However, with no blocking ridge along the Pacific coast, the storm track will remain open for much of the upcoming week, most likely resulting in a wetter than normal period for Utah and southwest Wyoming. There is still considerable ensemble spread with regard to the potential timing, track, and strength of any individual systems, however, so while confidence is high in an active pattern continuing, confidence remains low on the potential impacts for the area.

AVIATION...KSLC

Another band of moderate rainfall will traverse the terminal between 06-09z, with potential to produce a period of MVFR CIGS/VIS. Rain showers become more isolated behind this line, with less than a 30% chance to impact the terminal through 12z. Dry conditions prevail through the remainder of the morning with CIGS gradually increasing above 6kft. There is a 30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms between 21-06z Friday. Southerly winds continue to prevail at the terminal, though showers may produce periods of gusty and variable winds.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Conditions continue to dry out across the southern half of Utah this evening. A broad area of moderate to heavy rain will continue to track through northern Utah and southwest Wyoming overnight into early Friday morning, bringing periods of MVFR to IFR CIGS/VIS through this period. Dry conditions develop across the airspace by mid-morning, before more isolated showers and thunderstorms develop across northern Utah Friday afternoon and evening. Southerly winds prevail for most regional terminals into Friday, with periods gusty and variable winds in and around thunderstorms.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None.

WY...None.