textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 103 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Dry conditions with valley inversions persisting through the end of the week before valley rain and mountain snow arrive this weekend that will help to mix out the inversions.

- Guidance continues to show two more storms next week, but details remain uncertain.

DISCUSSION, Issued 103 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

The 12Z sounding at KSLC shows a relatively deep inversion that will continue to strengthen over the next couple of days as ridging remains in place with 700mb temperatures rising to ~6C by Thursday morning. This will keep hazy conditions over the area through the end of the week. Southerly flow will start to increase on Friday ahead of our weekend storm. Winds will be elevated across western Utah, but these strong winds might not manifest near the surface across the Wasatch Front which would limit mixing and allow inversions to hold on until precipitation and cooler air aloft arrive on Saturday.

An elongated trough stretching from the PNW into the Great Basin will swing through the area on Saturday likely (80% chance) bringing widespread valley rain and mountain snow for much of the CWA. Median 700 mb temperatures will bottom out around -5C which will be cold enough to bring snow levels down to ~7000 feet, although accumulating snow will likely be >8000 feet.

There still remains a small contingency of drier solutions (<20%), but these solutions have continued to trend towards the wetter scenario the past couple of days. This is evident in the NBM QPF totals that have increased over the last couple of days. The 25th percentile is between 0.25-0.50" for valley locations, and up to 1.00" in the mountains. The 75th percentile is upwards of 1.00" of liquid in the valleys with some mountain locations between 1.50-2.00". QPF totals are fairly uniform across most of the state outside of western Utah near the Nevada border, eastern Utah, and Uinta County, Wyoming which might see considerably less precipitation given shadowing/downsloping from topographic features. Flow transitions from southerly to a northwest flow by Saturday afternoon which will enhance snow across areas that are favored in northwest flow. Mountain snow totals of 4-8" (generally above 9000 feet) are expected across most mountain locations with locally favored areas exceeding 12".

Some of the coldest air of the season is expected to filter into the area Saturday night into Sunday morning as skies start to clear and most valley locations, outside of lower Washington County, get near or below freezing. A transient ridge builds back into the area Sunday and Monday before another trough moves into the Great Basin Tuesday and Wednesday. Most of the ensemble members are on board with bringing this trough through, but there are some varying solutions regarding the track. ~50% of the members bring an open wave that starts to transition into a closed low overhead, and the other 50% cut the low off to our southwest before it swings to the north and moves through Utah. This is leading to a pretty large spread in the magnitude of cold air that will come from this.

The 25th-75th percentile 700mb temperatures are between -5 and -9C. The warmer solutions likely associated with the cutoff moving in from the south and the colder solutions associated with the open wave that cuts off overhead. If the colder scenario pans out and the low pivots over northern Utah then some lake effect snow could develop with the potential for the seasons first valley snow with little to no accumulation given the marginal temperatures.

Another trough will follow on the heels of the midweek trough with almost all ensemble members on board with this one, as well. The details on the track and precipitation will likely hinge on what the previous storm does, but ensemble members are showing even colder airmass than the midweek storm. This could be a more widespread valley snow event if the colder air materializes with the expected moisture.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail with light, terrain-driven winds. Northwesterly winds will gradually transition to southeasterly between 02-03z, likely becoming light and variable at times.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail with light, terrain-driven winds. Fog is unlikely in most locations at KLGU, where there is a 60% chance of LIFR conditions developing between 11-16z.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.