textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring warmer than normal and dry conditions into the weekend.

- There is high confidence in a pattern change toward a more active storm track for the western U.S. from roughly Sunday into Monday through much of that week.

DISCUSSION

A grazing shortwave trough and associated baroclinic zone have tracked from north to south across most of Utah. The boundary will continue to track through southern Utah Monday evening. This will result in enhanced north winds for Black Ridge Canyon into lower Washington County. Despite a sufficient pressure gradient, the cold air advection and winds with the system are lacking. Gusts to roughly 45 mph will continue through much of Tuesday.

A ridge will track inland through the week, with dry and warmer than normal conditions with light winds. The lack of flow and warming conditions will result in an increase in valley haze, especially Thursday into the weekend as the ridge builds into Utah and valley inversions establish. Valley highs will be in the low and mid 50s for much of Utah, with highs near 70F for lower Washington County, 10-20F warmer than normal.

Ensembles are in agreement on a pattern change from later in the weekend through that week, with almost all GEFS, EPS, and GEPS members with at least some precipitation for most of Utah. This would be associated with a longwave trough that would track into the western U.S. Those ensemble members have big ranges in potential precipitation totals, so confidence on details is low.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions prevail for all regional terminals today as dry conditions and clear skies continue across the airspace. Most locations will see light, terrain driven winds through the period. Gusty northerly gap winds developing across southwest Utah will bring gusts to 25-30 kts for some locations near canyon mouths through this evening.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.