textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A drying trend develops today, persisting through the weekend.

- Freezing temperatures look to develop across locations such as Juab / Millard counties, Sanpete Valley, and higher elevation valley locations across southwest Utah Friday morning and potentially Saturday morning.

- Another system is expected to move into the Great Basin by midweek next week, ushering in the return of precipitation to much of Utah and southwest WY.

DISCUSSION

A mid-level lobe of vorticity will continue to break off of the departing low, spinning up another weak mid-level low across the southwest today. This won't surmount to much, other than the development of northeasterly winds across the forecast area. over the next couple days, this feature will continue to weaken and phase into the mean flow as westerly flow aloft establishes across the area.

With ample clearing and height rises occurring across northern and central UT tonight, freezing temperatures appear likely across the Sevier and Sanpete valleys, though higher elevation areas within Juab/Millard counties and southwestern UT may see brief dips below freezing as well. Light surface winds beneath establishing high pressure will set the stage for a more robust radiational cooling setup tonight across the specified locations.

With westerly flow aloft, dry and calm conditions are forecast to persist into early next week. Winds will be light and variable beneath clear skies, with a slight warming trend to near-normal temperatures statewide.

Confidence continues to increase regarding a system impacting the forecast area mid-week next week. Guidance is generally trending more widespread with precipitation, though forcing remains modest among most ensemble members as the trough looks to amplify further east. Roughly ~30% of guidance has this occurring over UT, resulting in heavier mountain snowfall totals and lower elevation rainfall totals, as well as bringing snow levels down markedly compared to other suites. As the last few forecasts have specified, this forecast will continue to change substantially over the coming days.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with clear skies. Northwesterly winds will switch to diurnally-driven southeasterlies around 02Z this evening. Northwesterly flow will return around 19Z tomorrow.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Gusty easterly winds will continue at KEVW and persist through the day, while winds at the remainder of northern TAF sites remain light northerly. Gusty northeast winds will develop at KCDC and KSGU by early afternoon into the evening.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure continues to build in the wake of the departing low pressure system keeping conditions moderated and calm. While the airmass remains cool and stable, clear skies will enable temperatures to continue to warm into next week, closer to near-normals for this time of year. Nearly all of UT is expected to remain dry through early next week ahead of an incoming system which is forecast to usher in more precipitation around midweek.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for UTZ116-118-119.

WY...None.