textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers will continue especially across northern and central Utah into Friday before gradually tapering off Friday evening.

- A closed low to our south the jet stream to our north will keep moisture to our north and south while we stay relatively dry with increasing temperatures through the weekend and most of next week.

DISCUSSION

A mean trough with several embedded shortwave disturbances will continue to impact Utah through Friday. Showery precipitation will continue through the night across mainly northern and central Utah owing to one such disturbance rotating near southwest Wyoming. These scattered showers will generally have little impact on most lower valleys (where there is less than a 50% chance of snow greater than 0.5 inches), although brief slush ups will be possible under heavier showers. Models do maintain some lake-enhanced showers affecting the western SL Valley and the Tooele Valley overnight, where localized areas of around 1 inch accumulation will be possible.

The showers will become increasingly confined to the mountains through the day Friday. However, as the flow aloft trends more north-northeasterly as the trough starts to split, expect the best chance for showers will occur south of I-80. Over the next 24 hours, the 25th-75th percentile range for snow over the mountains from I-80 to the Tushars is forecast to be 2-10 inches. The snow will taper off Friday night as the northern branch of the split trough exits the area while the southern split develops into a closed low and heads for the Baja coast. However, this splitting pattern will result in localized gap winds for Washington County, with wind gusts approaching 45 mph Friday night.

A prolonged dry period looks to be in store for the area for the weekend and beyond. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Saturday, resulting in a gradual warming trend that will peak around Monday, when the NBM has a high temperature in the mid to upper 60s (25th-75th percentile) at SLC. The ridge will then trend flatter by early next week. A series of low-amplitude troughs are expected to cross ID/MT/WY during much of next week. At this time, the northerly track of these storms look to keep any precipitation north of the forecast area. However, gusty westerly winds across far northern Utah and southwest Wyoming look like a good possibility at this time, and potentially a dry cold front (timing TBD) will work its way into Utah.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Occasional snow showers will temporarily reduce CIGS/VIS into the IFR or even LIFR category across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming TAF sites through 10Z. Improvement to VFR conditions will follow late tonight through Friday morning, with CIGS scattering out during the afternoon. Winds across the area will remain predominantly northerly through Friday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for UTZ108-118-119.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Friday for UTZ110>113-117- 125.

WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for WYZ021.