textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 305 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Dangerous heat will persist across most of Utah this weekend. Those without access to cooling or proper hydration will be most at risk for heat-related illness. With temperatures remaining elevated overnight, there will be little recovery. Heat stress is cumulative.

- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall remains outlooked across southern Utah Saturday, shifting north and east Sunday. Periods of heavy rainfall will pose a flash flooding threat, particularly to rain sensitive basins.

- A monsoonal pattern looks to persist into the upcoming week, offering daily shower and thunderstorm chances, and potential for localized excessive rainfall.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1011 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Evening synoptic analysis shows a large ridge of high pressure more or less centered from the Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region. Given the strength of the ridge, 700mb temperatures remain anomalously warm. In fact, the evening weather balloon sampled a 700mb temperature of approximately 18.35C, well above the 90th percentile for this time of year, and more or less at the daily max. In turn, it has been another hot day across the region with widespread 100F readings at lower elevations. Aside from the heat, modest amounts of moisture pivoting around the ridge have yielded some isolated to scattered convection across portions of southern and southwestern Utah this afternoon and evening. With near stationary motion, these have resulted in periods of heavy rain, but also with the lower levels still a bit dry, some gusty outflow winds as well. With lack of daytime heating though, expect things to remain suppressed through what appears to be a mild overnight period.

This weekend the overall weather pattern does not appear to shift appreciably. First, excepting precipitation and associated cloud cover, forecast highs only look to decrease at most a degree or so day to day. With overnight temperatures also remaining very mild, especially with any lingering cloud cover, the cumulative effects of heat will be amplified, and pose a risk to those without access to cooling or proper hydration. Widespread Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect through the weekend accordingly. In terms of precipitation chances, the primary changes appear to be a slight north and eastward expansion Saturday and especially Sunday as moisture continues to work into the region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still anticipated to form in the afternoon and evening hours, posing a threat of periodic heavy rain, lightning, and gusty erratic outflow winds. In terms of flash flood potential, the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights much of southwest Utah in a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) Saturday, with the Marginal Risk area then expanding to include more or less all of the forecast area. As has been the case, especially with limited storm motion, the threat will be highest over rain sensitive basins such as recent burn scars, slot canyons, typically dry washes, and slickrock areas.

Much of the upcoming week looks to see a monsoonal pattern maintained as the ridge of high pressure if anything only becomes better centered over the Four Corners region, allowing a favorable moisture tap into Utah and southwest Wyoming. PWAT anomalies areawide sit roughly around 125-150% of climatological normal, with ensemble mean values peaking around 150-175% of normal somewhere in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues to maintain a widespread Marginal Risk area highlighting much of the region Monday and Tuesday (as far as the outlooks go in time at this point), and suspect the area will see a continued excessive rain/flash flood threat more or less throughout the upcoming week. As is typical, this threat will be most pronounced at those rain sensitive basins, though periods of heavy rainfall elsewhere may still pose localized risks at time. In regards to timing, generally expect the diurnal cycle to largely dominate with afternoon/evening convective development, though more subtle vorticity maxima rotating around the periphery of the ridge may offer areas/periods of high coverage; a detail that is not easily resolved this far out. Aside from the flood threat, there does appear to be faster jet flow at areas especially further north near the ID border, which may offer a bit more shear and support for storm organization. Would anticipate these places to see at least some potential for a few storms with strong winds and hail as well. With the increased monsoonal pattern, temperatures will continue to trend downward, offering some relief to the heat.

AVIATION, Issued 1043 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

KSLC...Generally light southeasterly winds prevail overnight before transitioning to the northwest around 18z. VFR conditions will prevail most of the TAF period, though elevated wildfire smoke may cause slantwise VIS reductions briefly into MVFR, particularly around sunrise/sunset.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds for all regional terminals generally remain light and diurnally driven overnight. Afternoon convection develops after 18z mainly across southern Utah, extending as far north as the southern Wasatch Front and Wasatch Back. Gusty and erratic outflow winds to 50 mph are possible in the vicinity of storms that develop Saturday afternoon and evening. VFR conditions prevail overall, though lingering wildfire smoke may lead to brief reductions into MVFR VIS especially around sunrise/sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

The western ridge has made its trek east, with the center now roughly over the Four Corners, a location favorable for bringing monsoon moisture into Utah. The moisture will remain focused over southern Utah today, bringing improving relative humidity values, but also an increased threat of lightning with better coverage of showers and thunderstorms. This moisture will spread northward across the remainder of Utah Sunday into Monday, with relative humidities and coverage of convection increasing. The ridge is expected to move little for much of the upcoming week, so confidence is high that moisture and instability will remain in place.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT Sunday night for UTZ101- 102-104-105-115-120-121.

Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night for UTZ103-106-107- 114-116.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ118-119-122-126- 127.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ123-124- 128>131.

WY...None.