textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and generally mild conditions will persist into early next week.

- Unsettled conditions return to the northern half of the area Tuesday night into the weekend, with periods of valley rain and generally dense mountain snow.

LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Thursday)

There is high confidence in another atmospheric river (AR) event later in the week. Models and ensembles are in good agreement on a similar track into the PacNW, with southwest Wyoming and northern Utah on the southern extent of sufficient moisture and forcing for rain and snow.

Moisture associated with the event discussed in the short term will be diminishing early Thursday, while another AR will slide into northern California, Oregon, and Washington. For southwest Wyoming and Utah, early Thursday will be a bit of a lull between systems, although isolated or scattered showers will continue. Precipitation will become likely Thursday into Friday. Similar to other AR events, snow levels will climb. They will start around 5000 feet near the Idaho border and 6000 feet near Salt Lake City, but by Thursday into Friday, push to 7500-8000 feet. The most uncertainty is with southern extent of precipitation, but ensembles generally bring more precipitation than prior runs, indicating a further south track. Models bring the majority of precipitation for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah with this event with that enhanced moisture content Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

There is a rather large range in water values between different guidance, but the storm system will generally trend wettest for the far northern mountains with a relatively quick downtrend with elevation and southward extent. This will be a wet, dense snow, but with moisture content and length of the event, northern mountain elevations, particularly above 8000 feet, will get snow accumulation that could warrant headlines. The most likely water content range is from 0.75-1.50", which would translate to snow totals at least near advisory criteria.

Temperatures will be around 15F warmer than normal for southwest Wyoming and Utah into the weekend. Winds will also be enhanced from Thursday into the weekend. South to southwest winds will be maximized on northern Utah ridgelines and for southwest Wyoming. Valleys all the way into southern Utah will also have enhanced south to southwest flow.

AVIATION...KSLC

Light southeast winds will transition to light northwest winds around 18Z. Scattered high clouds will last through 03Z. Mostly clear conditions will build in around 03Z with winds transitioning to southeast.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered high clouds will last through the day, then clear from west to east after 00Z. Light winds will last through the TAF period.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.