textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1023 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Conditions across the entire forecast area dry out considerably starting Thursday.

- Dangerous heat looks to develop across the entire forecast area this weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure settles in bringing the potential for an increase in heat related illness.

- An active pattern for wind looks to develop by Sunday/Monday with strong winds out of the southwest raising chances for critical fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1023 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Convection is currently moving further east toward WY and CO, leaving much of the state dry. This drying trend is forecast to continue across the entire area for the foreseeable future as a strong ridge of high pressure begins to establish itself over southern NV into much of AZ resulting in persistent warm and dry westerly flow.

As geopotential heights continue to increase starting Friday, we will see at or just near triple digit temperatures across much of our western UT valley locations with most areas along the Wasatch front reaching into the low 100s. Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance St. George breaks 110F tomorrow afternoon. This is unfortunately not all the heat we'll see, as Saturday and Sunday are expected to become disgustingly hot across the entire forecast area. For example, St. George's probabilities of breaking 110F on Saturday increase substantially to around 70-80% with SLC's chances of breaking 105F ranging from 20-40%. Additionally, overnight lows are expected to offer little relief with most valley locations only seeing temperatures getting down to the mid-70s, with St. Georges low's remaining in the low 80s. As a result, HeatRisk increases substantially with much of the forecast areas lower lying population centers well situated within at least "major" HeatRisk (3/4) by Saturday.

Additionally, with this pattern settling in warm and dry west- northwest flow, this sets us up for an active fire weather storm track going forward. Enhanced gusts out of the southwest look to develop by Sunday/Monday resulting in elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions developing across southwestern, west-central, and northwest UT both afternoons. While the recent monsoonal rainfall has certainly helped extinguish fire weather concerns across much of southern UT, this airmass is expected to be rather dry and bears watching.

AVIATION

KSLC...Gusty winds will continue tapering off through the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist with diurnal wind shifts expected.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A few scattered thunderstorms are currently moving across northern UT with a low chance of impacting KLGU. Otherwise, VFR conditions with diurnal wind shifts will prevail across all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 159 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

One final moisture surge moves across Utah through the remainder of today, allowing for scattered shower and thunderstorm development across a majority of Utah. Under stronger storms, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are expected. With drier air in place over far northern Utah, any storms developing in this region will be capable of outflow wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.

As we move into Thursday, a significant drying of the air mass is expected as high pressure repositions nearly overhead. Afternoon relative humidity is expected to fall by upwards of 10 percent in the western area and by as much as 30 percent in the eastern area. A less significant day of drying is expected, however, relative humidity is expected to drop into the single digits to low-teens across a majority of Utah (including the high terrain features) by Friday. Alongside this significant drying trend, a significant warming trend is also expected. High temperatures in the lower elevation areas across western and eastern Utah will be reaching into the low- to mid-100s, with temperatures as high as 112-114 in the lowest elevations of southern Utah. Adding to the very hot and very dry conditions, an active storm track to our north is anticipated to dip far enough south by late this weekend to bring an increase in southwest winds. There is currently a low to medium chance (30-50% probability) for critical fire weather conditions to develop over a portion of west-central, southwest, and northeast Utah on Sunday and Monday. Thereafter, hot and dry conditions will remain in place through at least the middle of next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ101- 115-116-120>122.

Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ102-104>106-114.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon Friday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ123-124-128>131.

WY...None.