textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1226 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall will continue across much of Utah through at least Friday. This risk expands further north on Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures will decrease 10-15 degrees by the end of the week with slightly drier air pushing into the area by the weekend.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1226 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Monsoon moisture will remain in place through Friday as the ridge responsible for this influx gradually shifts to the east. As this ridge shifts to the east a weak trough will push into the western CONUS. This will enhance lift on Thursday and Friday to expand widespread convection across all of Utah and SW Wyoming. The flash flooding risk will gradually expand into northern Utah Thursday and Friday with slot canyons, normal dry washes, urban areas, and recent burn scars will be most susceptible to flooding.

Convection will develop each afternoon and persist through the early evening before gradually diminishing overnight. The caveat with this will be for the potential for nocturnal convection. Guidance continues to hint at lingering moisture overnight, such as tonight across northern Utah, but models struggle to capture these features accurately. The most likely time for nocturnal activity will come Thursday and Friday as forcing increases. Temperatures will also trend down 10-15 degrees with the increased cloud coverage and cooling temperatures aloft.

Slightly drier air moves into the area this weekend with most of the diurnal convection confined to the higher terrain. Moisture moves back into the area next week as the ridge re-positions itself over the Four Corners. This active pattern looks to remain across the area, in some form, through the next couple of weeks.

AVIATION...KSLC

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period. Winds will most likely prevail out of the south through the rest of the night. If north winds do return this evening, they are expected to be brief, lasting generally an hour or less through 02z. There is a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms affecting the terminal through 04z this evening, then periodic rain showers will become more likely after 09z and continuing through mid-morning. Winds may be occasionally erratic near these showers. A transition to northwest winds is expected around 19z tomorrow, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon thereafter.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the airspace today with generally light and terrain driven winds outside of showers. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, then rain showers are expected across northern Utah overnight. Any thunderstorms or stronger showers that develop will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds with a chance of mountain obscurations and temporary MVFR conditions from heavy rainfall.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1226 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Monsoon moisture will continue to surge into Utah through the remainder of the week with storms developing during the afternoon and weakening late evening and overnight. Some nocturnal activity will remain and persist, but the details of when and where with these storms will likely remain uncertain until the day of. Storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds along with frequent lightning and brief heavy rain.

A storm system approaches by Thursday that will increase southwesterly winds, but RH will remain elevated. This storm system will help to expand precipitation across most of northern Utah, persisting through Friday. Temperatures will cool 10-15 degrees across the area as this system brings a cooler airmass. By the weekend, a slightly drier airmass will limit most of the diurnal storms to the high terrain before better moisture returns next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.