textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue today and tomorrow across eastern Utah which will keep a low threat for flash flooding given the saturated soils.

- Pattern remains unsettled with a quick moving cold front Monday night followed by a more substantial storm by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

A closed low is located across northern Arizona which is keeping showers with some embedded thunderstorms ongoing across southern and eastern Utah. This low will slowly meander to the northeast today and tomorrow with a similar threat for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, but rainfall rates will generally remain under 0.4"/hour limiting the flash flood threat to the heaviest cores in the most sensitive locations. Temperatures will remain below normal over the next couple of days with highs in the 50s across much of the area with 60s in the lower terrain of southern Utah. Overnight lows will also be cold with 30s and 40s areawide and patchy frost developing across many valley locations tonight and tomorrow.

Shortwave ridging on Monday will bring a brief pause to the unsettled weather before a trough rotating across the PNW grazes northern Utah with a cold front Monday night. This will bring a quick round of precipitation with valley rain and snow levels generally above 7000 feet. The precipitation will be short-lived so amounts will generally between <0.25" and confined to areas along the Wasatch front and points to the east. This will also bring temperatures back down a few degrees below normal before gradually warming throughout the week.

Behind the front on Monday flow will stay zonal with a lull in activity before another dynamic moisture rich system approaches the west coast towards the end of the week. Guidance has pretty good consensus on a trough moving into the PNW with an active southern jet stream pulling in moisture into the southwest. This will bring a return to widespread precipitation by the end of the week and into the weekend, but the heaviest precipitation looks to remain across Arizona.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions are forecast to persist at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period. Some mid to upper level cloud cover is expected to build in overnight, though ceilings will remain VFR. Wind shifts are expected to remain diurnal with a shift to southeasterly expected around 03z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers are expected to impact both KCDC and KSGU from 18-22z this afternoon, though showers may linger around KCDC longer resulting in a potential AMD down the line. Occasional MVFR CIGs are occurring at KLGU and KCDC, likely persisting through the next 2-3 hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist across all other sites within the airspace through the TAF period.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.