textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will impact northern Utah after midnight Thursday, gradually clearing the area from west to east Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

- Locally elevated fire weather conditions will occur across far southern Utah Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Locally critical fire weather conditions will develop across the southern half of Utah Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Mostly sunny and warm conditions continue across the region early this afternoon. A shortwave trough digging into central Rockies will bring an increased threat of rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight tonight, shifting into the Wasatch Front early Thursday morning. This threat will continue through much of the day across northern Utah, decreasing from west to east by late afternoon as the best forcing for precipitation shifts into Colorado. Given lack of sufficient instability, do not expect any organized convection, though cannot rule out a few wind strong wind gusts or some graupel on the southern edges of the main area of precipitation.

Broad upper level ridging will build into the region in the wake of this system Friday into the weekend. This will bring a warming and drying trend, with temperatures reaching around 5 to 10 degrees above normal this weekend. A few high-based showers or thunderstorms may develop near Boulder Mountain and on the high Uintas over the holiday weekend, otherwise the region will remain largely dry.

The next opportunity for precipitation looks to be early next week as a trough shifts into the Interior West. Current guidance is split between two main solutions: one in which an upper level low cuts off from the flow across the West and retrogrades toward the Pacific Coast over a number of days and one where the trough remains phased and progressive across the region. Looking across the ensemble systems, current members support a less than 20% chance of 0.25" or more of precipitation through next Thursday across most valley locations. Even with the potential for an unsettled pattern, the threat of widespread precipitation is low.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions are expected to persist across all TAF sites through the remainder of the day. Diurnally driven winds will be the norm across the area through tonight. A cold front will move from north to south across northern Utah early Thursday morning bringing lowering ceilings, scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms, and the potential for mountain obscuration (primarily focused after 12z). Modestly gusty northwesterly winds are also expected to develop by mid morning (gusts 20-30mph). For southern Utah, VFR conditions will hold under largely clear and dry conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

An area of low pressure will shift across northern and eastern Utah Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms to this portion of the state through Thursday evening. Across southern Utah, very dry conditions will continue with occasional gusts up to 25 mph or so. This will bring localized areas of elevated fire weather conditions to mainly the Grand Staircase and Color Country mountains areas.

As low pressure pulls away from the area Thursday evening, a warming and drying trend will continue through the holiday weekend. Expect temperatures around 10 degrees above normal Sunday and Monday. With very dry conditions during the day, overnight recoveries will become increasingly poor during this period.

A return to unsettled conditions is increasingly likely for Tuesday into Wednesday. With continued critically low humidities across much of the region, increasing winds will bring the threat of locally critical fire weather conditions to much of southern Utah Tuesday and Wednesday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.