textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold Pacific system will impact the region Monday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulating snow will impact most Utah mountain locations as well as the Wasatch Back and potentially some Wasatch Front bench areas. Expect the heaviest totals across the upper Cottonwoods and southern Mountains.

- Another colder Pacific system will impact the region Thursday through at least Friday night. Snow levels could lower to near to below 5000 feet Friday night.

DISCUSSION

A shortwave ridge will continue to cross Utah today, with the ridge axis shifting east of Utah tonight. This will put Utah under an increasing southwesterly flow aloft through tomorrow ahead of the next storm system. The progressive nature of the pattern will keep strong inversions at bay, and temperatures tomorrow are expected to climb to 5-10 degrees above climatological normals across northern Utah while southern Utah will trend closer to normal.

The next storm system is expected to start bringing increasing showers to the area tomorrow night, though the bulk of the moisture will likely hold off until the Tuesday morning through Tuesday night timeframe. Precipitation will initially occur under a southwesterly flow aloft and will be more favorable for the southern Utah mountains. However, snow levels will initially remain on the high side, generally above 8500 feet through at least Tuesday morning. A cold front then looks to cross the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, switching the flow to a more westerly direction behind it. Precipitation will then become more favorable for northern and central Utah mountains while snow levels fall through Tuesday night. H7 temperatures are currently forecast to bottom out at around -8C towards the tail end of the precipitation event. This could drop snow levels as low as 5000 ft, which would bring snow to the higher valleys and potentially the Wasatch Front benches.

Precipitation amounts for this storm should not be too dissimilar to the last one, although QPF is expected to be a bit higher for this one. Overall, expect snow amounts in the mountains to be in the 4-9 inch range above 8000 feet, with higher amounts possible in the upper Cottonwoods, Tushars, and near Brian Head. Most higher valleys and bench areas are unlikely to see more than 1 inch. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the southern Utah mountains, but will allow later shifts to evaluate the need for an Advisory for other zones, especially the Wasatch Mountains which currently look borderline.

A brief break in the weather is expected by Wednesday afternoon through Wendesday night before yet another storm system starts to impact the area. While there is high confidence in a late week storm, there is still quite a bit of model spread regarding its timing and evolution. However, there is potential for this to be a longer-duration storm (Thursday morning through Friday) and also perhaps a bit colder. As such, there is currently around a 45% chance for some Wasatch Front valley floors to see measurable snow, and a 10-20% chance of seeing at least 1 inch before high pressure builds back into the area on Saturday.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Upper/mid-level clouds are expected to build in tonight, increasing in coverage through tomorrow with little to no operational impacts expected. Winds will largely remain S/SE ahead of an incoming system, with gusts increasing tomorrow to around 20kts in the afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to persist across all terminals except for KLGU through the TAF period. Regarding KLGU, there is roughly a 30-40% chance BR develops in the morning hours reducing vsbys <5SM. This will be included in the 00z TAF package. Otherwise, winds will generally remain S/SE across most terminals with upper/mid-level clouds continuing to build across the airspace tonight through tomorrow.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday for UTZ125.

WY...None.