textproduct: Salt Lake City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Near record to potentially record breaking heat will develop this weekend into early next week, persisting through mid-week.
- Widespread anomalous heat, single-digit daytime RH, and poor overnight humidity recoveries bring elevated fire weather conditions Sunday onward.
- There is a very low chance of any precipitation through at least midweek next week.
DISCUSSION
Northwest flow remains across Utah this afternoon. High pressure will continue to shift into the Desert Southwest, with a ~590dam high centered over southern California/Arizona by Sunday. Expect temperatures to trend warmer Sunday, reaching to near record levels by Monday.
Upper level ridging will gradually shift east mid-week as a trough approaches the Pacific Coast. This may allow for mid-level moisture advection and an attendant threat of high-based showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday. Current guidance suggests this high-based convection will be dry, with little threat of precipitation reaching the surface. The vast majority of ensemble members keep nearly the entire CWA dry through at least Wednesday, if not longer.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry conditions and clear skies will continue with light and diurnally driven winds.
FIRE WEATHER
High pressure will continue to build into the region through Saturday, bringing near record temperatures and very dry conditions. By Sunday, many areas will see low teens to single digit humidities with poor to very poor overnight recoveries.
There is little relief in this pattern through at least Thursday. Locally critical fire weather conditions will develop in areas if any fuels transition to critical during this time period.
A portion of the guidance suggests a low threat of high-based thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. Given very dry antecedent conditions, this will be worth monitoring going forward.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None. WY...None.
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