textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring historically warm weather for March beginning Wednesday, continuing through Saturday. By Thursday, temperatures will be challenging monthly maximum temperature records as they approach 30F above seasonal normals.

- A dry cold front will bring a cooling trend Sunday, though daytime highs will remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

DISCUSSION

Broad high pressure remains centered just off the California coast this evening, but it has made noticeable eastward progress since this morning. It will continue its eastward trek through tomorrow before parking over northern Arizona. The presence of this ridge, rather abnormally strong for this time of year, will bring historically hot temperatures for this time of year, with maxes running 25-30F above climo. The hot weather will continue through Saturday before the ridge shifts east Sunday, allowing for the passage of a dry cold front. While this will make temperatures significantly less warm, particularly for northern portions of the area, Sunday's highs should still average 10-15F above seasonal normals.

Here are the latest probabilities of breaking some notable high temperature records for the month of March, per NBM 5.0:

* KSLC (80 - 2010): There is a less than 10% chance this monthly record is reached Wednesday, 50% Thursday, and a 95% chance Friday as the 25th-75th percentile for max temperature increases to 82-86. * Cedar City (81 - 2004), there is a 75% chance this monthly record is reached Wednesday, and a 95% chance Thursday (25th-75th percentile 84-87).

* St George (91): There is a 25% chance this record is reached Wednesday, and a 90% chance Thursday, increasing to near 100% on Friday (25th-75th percentile 94-96).

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions and diurnal winds are expected through the TAF period.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...Red Flag Warning from noon Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ277.