textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1213 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again across portions of central, southern, and northeast UT, along with southwest WY each afternoon through the forecast period as monsoonal moisture continues making its way north. Chances and coverage increase for northern UT starting Friday.

- The risk for flash flooding exists across the majority of the forecast area, highlighted by WPC with a Marginal Risk (1/4) of exceeding flash flood guidance, with a Slight Risk (2/4) starting Thursday and Friday for southwest UT.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for southern UT and portions of east- central UT Thursday afternoon and evening. This watch may be extended as more forecast guidance comes in.

DISCUSSION

High pressure remains situated just east of Utah this evening. South to southwesterly flow over the area continues to bring monsoonal moisture in from the south. PWATs across most valleys with the exception of northeast Utah are now over 1.1 inches, with up to around 1.4 inches across far southwest Utah. Expect PWATS to continue to slowly increase through the end of the week and into early next week (widespread PWATs of 1.25 inches or more are expected by the end of the week). With the low levels continuing to moisten, this will bring an increased threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to the area, and a Flood Watch is in effect for Thursday afternoon and evening for southern Utah.

Not seeing much in the way of large-scale forcing in the models at this time to aid widespread heavy rain or any appreciable severe threat. Given this and weak flow, expect most showers and thunderstorms to develop over/near the higher terrain, then largely propagate along cold pools and instability gradients. However, slow storm motions along with potential training will serve as focus points for areas of heavy rain, which, when falling over sensitive drainages will lead to the potential for flash flooding. Main difference for Thursday compared to today will be stronger instability and increased warm cloud layer depth, aiding the potential for efficient rainfall production.

AVIATION

KSLC...Northwesterly winds will gradually transition to northeasterly and then light out of the southeast, likely by 07z but as late as 09z. Winds will then return to northwesterly likely between 17-18z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along higher terrain after 19z, with a low chance of gusty outflow winds during the afternoon. This chance increases into the evening hours, with potential for a period of breezy easterly winds after ~01-03z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers will gradually diminish over the next couple of hours, though a few isolated showers may linger around KCDC-KSGU through 14z. Winds will become light and terrain-driven overnight. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop after 18z, particularly over higher terrain, with chances for moderate-heavy rain/brief VIS reductions and variable outflow winds.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1216 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Currently, monsoonal moisture continues to surge north into UT raising chances for showers and thunderstorms across the state and humidities, both serving to moderate fire weather conditions. Once again, chances for showers and thunderstorms (60- 80%) remain highest east of the I-15 corridor across southern and central UT as well as the Uintas. These locations are also where chances of a wetting rain are favored, though generally highest across higher terrain. While chances for showers and thunderstorms generally remain low across the remainder of northern UT and the West Desert today and tomorrow, chances increase throughout the remainder of the week as monsoonal moisture continues to increase further north with time, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to the whole state.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for UTZ121>131.

WY...None.