textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1213 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again across portions of central, southern, and northeast UT, along with southwest WY each afternoon through the forecast period as monsoonal moisture continues making its way north. Chances and coverage increase for northern UT starting Friday.

- The risk for flash flooding exists across the majority of the forecast area, highlighted by WPC with a Marginal Risk (1/4) of exceeding flash flood guidance, with a Slight Risk (2/4) starting Thursday and Friday for southwest UT.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for southern UT and portions of east- central UT Thursday afternoon and evening. This watch may be extended as more forecast guidance comes in.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1124 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

High pressure remains situated just east of Utah this evening. South to southwesterly flow over the area continues to bring monsoonal moisture in from the south. PWATs across most valleys with the exception of northeast Utah are now over 1.1 inches, with up to around 1.4 inches across far southwest Utah. Expect PWATS to continue to slowly increase through the end of the week and into early next week (widespread PWATs of 1.25 inches or more are expected by the end of the week). With the low levels continuing to moisten, this will bring an increased threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to the area, and a Flood Watch is in effect for Thursday afternoon and evening for southern Utah.

Not seeing much in the way of large-scale forcing in the models at this time to aid widespread heavy rain or any appreciable severe threat. Given this and weak flow, expect most showers and thunderstorms to develop over/near the higher terrain, then largely propagate along cold pools and instability gradients. However, slow storm motions along with potential training will serve as focus points for areas of heavy rain, which, when falling over sensitive drainages will lead to the potential for flash flooding. Main difference for Thursday compared to today will be stronger instability and increased warm cloud layer depth, aiding the potential for efficient rainfall production.

AVIATION

KSLC...Light drainage flows will continue over the KSLC terminal through the morning hours, transitioning to a northerly flow around 18Z. There is around a 25-30% chance that northerly winds do not develop until 20-21Z. Area showers and thunderstorms will develop over the surrounding high terrain, bringing potential for gusty and erratic outflow winds after 20-21Z. There will be around a 30% chance for showers to move over the terminal later this evening. That said, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Isolated morning showers across a portion of the southern Wasatch Front, as well as central and southern Utah will dissipate gradually through the mid-morning. By around 18Z, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the high terrain features across a majority of Utah (lower coverage north of I-80). Showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin drifting off terrain features into adjacent valleys after 20Z, bringing potential reductions in visibility due to moderate to heavy rainfall, especially in southern Utah. Gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 25-30 kts will be possible with nearby storms.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 429 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A subtle increase in monsoonal moisture will lead to greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms across Utah's mountainous terrain and adjacent valley areas today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning in southern/ central Utah will diminish into the mid-morning hours before reinvigorating over the high terrain across the state after about 1200. While northwestern Utah (Box Elder and northern Tooele County) will remain largely dry today, the extent of shower coverage is expected to expand a bit farther north into the Bear River Mountains/ northern Wasatch. As these locations remain farther away from the main moisture plume, chance for wetting rain in this area will be notably lower than the remainder of the state (15-30 percent). For areas in central and southern Utah, anticipate a generally medium to high probability (50-90 percent chance) for wetting rains as storms develop. As has been the case with the last several days, storms will initially form over the high terrain features, then drift off the terrain into adjacent valley areas through the afternoon. Primary threats associated with these storms will be lightning, heavy rainfall, and wind gusts in excess of 30 mph.

So long as this monsoonal moisture remains in place, which it will for at least the next 7 days, anticipate daily shower and thunderstorm development over the high terrain alongside higher afternoon relative humidity and good to excellent overnight humidity recovery.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for UTZ121>131.

WY...None.