textproduct: Salt Lake City

UPDATE

Updated key points, aviation and fire weather discussions based on current model trends. Previous discussion follows.

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to record heat through Wednesday.

- The combination of anomalous heat, single-digit relative humidity and poor overnight recoveries will bring areas of locally elevated fire weather conditions through Tuesday.

- Very dry conditions and strong, gusty winds will bring the threat of locally critical fire weather conditions to portions of southwestern Utah Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms will bring the threat of microbursts to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 PM MDT May 10, 2026

A 590 dm ridge will become centered over Arizona tomorrow and gradually shift to the east through the week. This will result in high temperatures near records Monday through Wednesday as daytime highs run 15-25 degrees above normal. Record high temperatures for KSLC Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are 91, 92, and 93, respectfully. During this stretch, temperatures will likely peak on Tuesday, coincident with 700 mb temperatures peaking around 14C. Temperatures will approach 100 degrees across lower Washington county on Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures start to gradually cool as the ridge shifts to the east and a trough moves in from the PNW. ~50% of ensemble members bring enough moisture to allow for some isolated convective activity on Wednesday and Thursday. The other 50% of members keep most of this activity further north. Regardless, temperatures will cool by the end of the week and into the weekend with highs still remaining 5-10 degrees above normal. If convection does form on Wednesday there will be sufficient instability and shear (highlighted in the EC EFI) to help storms strengthen and maintain structure. These will likely be high-based storms that could produce frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds.

Winds will also increase ahead of the approaching trough on Wednesday and again on Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens and southwest flow increases.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions continue for all regional terminals through the period. Light, diurnally driven winds are expected across the airspace overnight, with breezy southwesterly winds developing during the early afternoon for most terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Strong high pressure remains in place across Arizona this morning. Near record to record temperatures are expected across much of Utah through at least Tuesday. Many locations across the region will see single digits to perhaps low teens humidities during the afternoon, with very poor recoveries overnight.

By Wednesday, an upper level low will cross into northern California. Deep, dry southwest flow will shift into southwestern Utah ahead of this low Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a greater than 50% chance wind gusts in excess of 25-30 mph will combine with very dry humidities to bring locally critical fire weather conditions to fire weather zones 495, 496 (below about 8000 feet), and outlying areas of 497 Wednesday afternoon evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across the central and southern mountains.

This system will cross Utah Thursday, with dry southwest flow building in to the region Friday ahead of a potential dry cold front Saturday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.