textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible each afternoon and evening through Wednesday across southern and eastern Utah.

- A couple weather systems impact the region Thursday into the weekend, bringing gusty south winds that will yield critical fire weather conditions across central and southern Utah.

- Gradual warming is expected through the week, with Moderate HeatRisk developing across most valleys Wednesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Generally zonal flow persists across Utah and southwest Wyoming today, which will yield near-to-slightly above normal highs areawide this afternoon. Mid-level moisture associated with a more active pattern across the northern Rockies sneaks into northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming, allowing for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area. The main threat from storms that develop this afternoon and evening includes gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40 mph.

A much drier airmass with gradually warming temperatures develops Tuesday onward as high pressure becomes the dominant feature across the western US. Conditions remain relatively benign otherwise through mid-week, before a shortwave trough brushes the region Thursday. This system will bring widespread south wind gusts 20-30 mph across the region, though there is a 20% chance for locally stronger winds in excess of 30 mph across central Utah. Winds taper off slightly on Friday especially across central and northern Utah, but remain elevated across southern Utah.

Ensembles are in good consensus for a stronger trough to dig into the Great Basin this weekend, yielding more widespread southwesterly gusts 25-30 mph across the region, except portions of west central and southern Utah where gusts exceeding 30 mph are likely (80%+ chance). Portions of central Utah, especially the West Desert, have a 20% chance for gusts to exceed 45 mph Saturday afternoon. Efficient mixing will allow for temperatures to climb well above seasonal normals, especially across northern Utah where highs top out around 15 degrees above normal. Similar winds develop again on Sunday as the trough continues to dig south, though temperatures trend 5-10 degrees cooler across the region.

The evolution of this trough is a bit more uncertain Sunday into early next week, with about half of members showing the trough splitting and the other half keeping it intact as it moves eastward. The splitting scenario would keep the dry airmass in place into early next week, while the other scenario would introduce increasing mid-level moisture and chances for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry and stable conditions with mostly clear skies will continue with light and variable winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening mainly across northeast Utah, with greatest coverage over the Uinta mountains. Main threat with any cells that develop will be gusty and erratic outflow winds. Very dry westerly flow will bring a stout warming and drying trend to the state through midweek, with elevated afternoon breezes generally up to 15-20 mph. An overall weak weather system brushing by the region to our north on Thursday will bring widespread wind gusts 25-30 mph across central and southern Utah, which will yield a period of critical fire weather during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds remain elevated but become more localized to southwest Utah on Friday. A second, stronger system digging into the Great Basin this weekend will result in widespread wind gusts in excess of 30 mph, once again bringing widespread critical fire weather conditions where fuels are critically dry.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.