textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1256 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Continued hot and dry through the weekend with isolated mountain thunderstorms possible. Temperatures Sunday will run 5-8 degrees above normal across northern Utah, with a 25% chance KSLC reaches 100F Sunday afternoon. Temperatures across southern Utah will remain near normal for early July.

- An increase in mid level moisture will bring a chance of high based showers and dry thunderstorms Monday across the area, and lingering into Tuesday across the north.

- Hot and dry conditions follow for mid-week, before a strengthening area of high pressure brings additional warming and potentially record high temperatures heading into next weekend.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1256 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Shortwave ridging amplifying across the region early this afternoon is maintaining a hot and very dry airmass across the forecast area. Temperatures trending another 3-5 degrees warmer will allow most northern, central and southwest valleys to reach the low-mid 90s this afternoon, while St George/Zion Canyon top out in the 100-103 range.

This ridge will further amplify as it shifts east Sunday, allowing for another 2-4 degrees of warming across northern Utah, and pushing KSLC close to its first 100F reading of the year (25% probability per NBM guidance). Meanwhile, mid level moisture will begin spreading into southwest Utah later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Forecast soundings and time-height plots suggest this moisture remains above 500mb which will limit lightning potential, but will result in gusty outflow driven winds spreading into southwest Utah during the afternoon, then central Utah during the evening.

This increase in moisture is owing in part to a shortwave lifting through Nevada later Sunday into early Monday. This feature will be well north of the forecast area Monday afternoon, thus despite lingering moisture (largely confined above 550mb per forecast soundings), limited large scale forcing will limit the potential for high based convection to spread off the terrain Monday afternoon and evening. Drier air spreading into the region Tuesday will focus any lingering convective threat to northern and perhaps eastern portions of the forecast area.

Beyond Tuesday, a subtropical ridge across the Desert Southwest will gradually expand/elongate through the week, then drift north into the Great Basin region by next weekend. This will maintain a hot and dry airmass through most of the week across the forecast area as any appreciable moisture remains confined to the south of the ridge axis. With this building ridge, afternoon temperatures next weekend will exceed triple digits across most northern Utah valleys, and push the 110F mark near St George. Eventually deeper moisture rotating around this ridge should reach the forecast area, but not likely before the July 14th-15th timeframe.

AVIATION, Issued 1256 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

KSLC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Typical diurnal wind shifts are forecast with winds clocking to southerly around 04z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Typical diurnal wind shifts are forecast at each site with thunderstorm development remaining over the high terrain.

FIRE WEATHER

A hot, very dry and unstable airmass will remain in place through the weekend across the state. Single digit afternoon RH values will be common state-wide across low and mid elevations this afternoon and again Sunday. Poor to in places non- existent RH recovery is also expected tonight. Increasing southerly flow later Sunday will also bring gusty winds across southwest Utah, which when combined with the hot and very dry airmass may result in isolated critical fire weather conditions. Late Sunday high based moisture will spread into the state, bringing a threat for isolated dry thunderstorms Monday afternoon. These storms will largely remain over the higher terrain across the state. With this increase in moisture, RH values will trend higher Monday. This moisture will then be swept out of the region beginning Tuesday, followed by hot and very dry conditions returning through most of the upcoming week. A strengthening area of high pressure will the potential for record heat by next weekend across the state. Any chance for robust monsoon moisture doesn't look to arrive until around the 14th-15th of July.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.