textproduct: Salt Lake City

UPDATE

Isolated showers will continue to diminish over the next several hours, though given the pattern, a few may linger through the overnight hours.

Expect convection to develop once again Wednesday afternoon and evening along the higher terrain and adjacent valleys...with the primary threats localized heavy rain and gusty, erratic microburst winds. Temperatures will also be on the upswing across most of the region, with highs reaching values that may increase risk for heat-related illness across southern Utah.

Updated the key messages and the aviation discussion, otherwise all previous discussions follow.

KEY MESSAGES

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday into the weekend. This will bring the threat of heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding to much of the region.

- Very hot temperatures will return to southern Utah, where there will be an increased risk of heat-related illness through Thursday.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1104 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Utah and southwest Wyoming remain under the influence of high pressure this morning, with the ridge axis centered roughly over Utah. This is bringing mostly clear skies with generally light flow aloft. Lingering monsoon moisture remains in place, with satellite derived PWs primarily in the 0.7 to 0.9 inch range, in the 75th to 90th percentile for this time of year. This should be more than enough moisture for convective initiation over the higher terrain this afternoon, but the lack of flow and lack of additional instability will result in a more limited valley threat than the past few days. Highs today will average about 5F above seasonal normals.

Little change in the weather pattern is anticipated through Thursday, with the ridge axis creeping ever so slightly east each day, eventually returning to the Four Corners by Friday. Thus, convective threat will remain mostly unchanged with a subtle warming trend. By Wednesday into Thursday, portions of far southern Utah will see isolated pockets of HeatRisk values in the red (major) range, but at this time the elevated risk of heat related illness does not look widespread enough to warrant heat related headlines. Additionally, will see enough drying during this time for RH values in western and southern valley locations to approach critical levels, though winds will remain generally light.

Rather than parking near the Four Corners for the weekend, guidance is increasingly suggesting that the ridge will continue east, potentially opening up the West to a more active pattern for the weekend and into early next week. The ridge should initially limit the influence of a Pacific Northwest storm system over the weekend, keeping it as primarily a grazing feature for northern portions of the area. Main impact will be on temperatures as the associated front moves through Saturday, with maxes up to 5F below seasonal normals anticipated by early next week. The resultant increase in instability will also bring the potential for more widespread convective activity, particularly for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. With the ridge then most likely out of the picture, at least for the time, troughs will have the potential to bring more significant impacts for the forecast area. However, any details on the potential timing, track, and strength of any of these systems remains low at this time.

AVIATION...KSLC

Winds will remain northerly with occasional gusts to 20kts until 06-07z, slowly transitioning to northeasterly then eventually light out of the southeast for the remainder of the night. There is low confidence in wind direction Wednesday afternoon, owing to isolated thunderstorms developing over the south end of the Salt Lake Valley after 19z. There is a low chance that a storm could move over the terminal, which could produce a period of gusty and erratic winds. VFR conditions will prevail.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Breezy northerly winds across northern Utah will gradually decrease, becoming light and terrain- driven by 08z or so. After a few light showers move through the Wasatch Front after 15z Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 18z Wednesday. Any storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1242 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

High pressure will remain over the area through at least Thursday. Lingering monsoon moisture will allow for the daily development of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, with limited drift off of the terrain. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds. Relative humidity values for the valleys of western and southern Utah are expected to move closer to critical values for Wednesday and Thursday, though winds will remain generally light. The ridge will track east of the area Friday through early next week, with a grazing Pacific Northwest system providing increasing southerly winds Friday into Saturday. However, the southerly flow will be drawing additional moisture northward during this time. A cold front on Saturday will bring less warm temperatures and an increased potential for convection, particularly for northern Utah. The absence of the persistent ridge will bring a more active pattern beginning early next week, though confidence is low on the details at this time.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.