textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1006 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Drier air moves in tomorrow, limiting chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across northern Utah, with modest potential continuing across southern and central Utah.

- Southerly flow redeveloping Friday will allow monsoonal moisture to gradually fill back in statewide through the weekend, with an increasing flash flood threat returning as a result.

- Heat concerns return to Utah starting this Friday, lasting through at least Monday as temperatures rise across the region with anomalously warm overnight temperatures offering little relief.

DISCUSSION

Despite PWATs dipping across the area this afternoon, ample moisture remains in the lower levels with sufficient dynamics for afternoon convection in place. Storm coverage will be more isolated in nature than past days, and mainly favoring southern Utah and far eastern Utah. Upper level flow remains lethargic, allowing storms that form along terrain to drift slowly and produce locally heavy rainfall and potentially impactful short-term accumulations.

This drier airmass will be short lived as a shortwave trough quickly ejects into the Central Plains Friday and shifts the ridge axis back into a better position to drive moisture well into northern parts of Utah and southwestern Wyoming. With that, probabilities increase for more widespread showers and thunderstorms, though the highest chances both for initiation and precipitation intensity are over central and southern Utah. As such, these areas are being highlighted for a heightened flash flood risk, with the collaborated Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) incorporating areas generally east of I-15 and south of I-70 into a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. The axis of this broad ridge gradually shifts back eastward through the weekend into early next week, resulting in continued monsoonal moisture transport through this period that will bring continued chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding each day.

In addition to a return to wetter conditions, this pattern will bring an increase in temperatures especially across northern Utah Friday into the weekend as the ridge not only shifts but H5 heights continue to climb as the ridge amplifies. Daytime highs soar back to the century mark for many locations across the Wasatch Front, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s offering very little relief. As such, widespread Major HeatRisk emerges through this period, indicating an elevated threat for heat illness especially for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Areas where cloud cover and remnant surface moisture will see the least overnight cooling, and there is indication that some areas with lows sitting around 80F could reach Extreme HeatRisk (~20% chance). If outdoors for festivities this weekend, make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning often.

AVIATION, Issued 1243 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

KSLC...Diurnal winds are forecast to persist at the KSLC terminal through the period with northwest winds building in currently. The next wind shift to southerly is expected around 04z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Generally diurnal winds are forecast across all sites through the TAF period. KCDC is forecast to retain daily thunderstorm potential in the afternoon hours, tapering off around 6PM/00z as reflected by the PROB30.

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture has pulled back to the south and east today, limiting the spatial extent of the showers and thunderstorms expected. However, terrain will help with initiation across southern and central Utah, and slow upper level flow will allow these storms to drift slowly and increase the chances of wetting rains with the stronger cells. This drying will also increase the threat for outflow winds, with storms capable of producing erratic gusts up to 40 mph on Thursday and up to 50 mph on Friday, in addition to the moderate-heavy rain and lightning.

Overall, minimum RH across the area will be a bit drier, reaching near- critical values during the afternoon across many valleys, with marginal overnight recoveries (35-50% for those same valleys). Expect temperatures across northern Utah to run quite a bit warmer through the weekend and well into next week as the ridge crests over the region.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for UTZ103>107.

WY...None.