textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1144 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Building high pressure will bring dangerous heat to northern Utah on Saturday and to southern Utah Friday through early next week.

- Portions of southwest Utah could see areas of critical fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday.

- There is potential for monsoon moisture to return to at least southern Utah by late next week.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1144 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A strong ridge is building overhead this morning, with much drier air advecting in from the southwest. Satellite derived PWs indicate values in the 0.3 to 0.5 inch range for for western Utah, with values up to 0.8 inch still hanging out over southeast Utah. The drying trend will continue through the weekend, accelerating later today as the flow gains more of a westerly component. CAMs are still indicating the possibility of a few storms this afternoon, primarily focused over the Uintas, with little to no potential for convection over the weekend.

High temperatures will be noticeably hotter than yesterday, with highs around 5F above seasonal normals for most locations. Temperatures will be hot enough to bring an increased potential of heat related illness for the southern Utah valleys this afternoon. Temperatures will warm further tomorrow as the ridge reaches its maximum strength. Highs up to 10F above normal will likely bring heat to dangerous levels for much of the remainder of the valleys of Utah. Have added a Heat Advisory for tomorrow for eastern Box Elder County, with headlines otherwise looking good. Overall, HeatRisk values have been trending downward given more reasonable overnight lows compared to the last heat wave. However, think that if anything the high temperature forecast is on the low side, so would not be surprised if red (major) HeatRisk values are more widespread than forecast for Saturday.

A Pacific Northwest trough making its way onshore will shift the ridge eastward for Sunday. Thus, anticipating northern Utah maxes to drop a bit for Sunday as the valleys of southern Utah stay dangerously hot. West to southwest winds will increase as the trough moves closer, and breezy conditions over western Utah could combined with very low relative humidity values to bring areas of critical fire weather conditions. The trough is expected to track well north of the area on Monday, but will bring enough less warm air to drop maxes for northern portions of the area to near normal for this time of year. Southern Utah maxes (particularly southeast Utah maxes), will stay high enough to likely keep heat in the dangerous range.

Behind the trough, most guidance puts Utah and southwest Wyoming under a roughly zonal flow aloft. This will likely keep northern and central Utah dry, but at least some guidance indicates enough of a southerly component to the flow to bring some monsoon moisture back into southern Utah as early as Thursday, bringing an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION, Issued 1144 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

KSLC, Issued 1144 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026... Winds will remain light and variable until a transition to northwesterly expected between 19-20z. Light, southeasterly winds will return after 04z or so. VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds will remain light and terrain-driven across much of the area. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over higher terrain this afternoon (18- 00z) in far northeastern UT and southwest WY may be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 30-35kts. VFR conditions will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Building high pressure will bring an increasingly hot and dry airmass to the state through Saturday, with dangerously hot temperatures expected for many valleys on Saturday. A Pacific Northwest trough will graze northern Utah Sunday into Monday. Winds are expected to increase ahead of the front, particularly over western Utah where there is a high chance that winds will become breezy enough to result in areas of critical fire weather conditions over at least southwest Utah, which could linger into Monday. The passage of a dry cold front will bring temperatures back to near seasonal normals over northern Utah on Monday before a westerly flow develops for much of the remainder of the week. There is a chance that some monsoon moisture could return to southern Utah late in the upcoming week, bringing an increased potential of showers and thunderstorms.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ101- 114>116-120>122.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ102-104>106.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ103.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ495-497.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ123-124- 128>131.

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ277.