textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain around 5 to 15 degrees above normal through at least next weekend.

- High based showers and thunderstorms will bring the low (10%) threat of gusty microburst winds up to 50 mph across southern Utah through around 8 PM this evening.

- An unsettled pattern will develop Friday into the next weekend.

DISCUSSION

An upper level low will continue to shift across northern Arizona through this afternoon. This shortwave trough is coincident with a southern jet max. With extensive cloud cover this morning, peak forecast SBCAPE has trended lower, around 100-150 J/kg. Given 40-50 degree dewpoint depressions, any high- based convection will be capable of gusty microburst winds.

This upper level low will shift east of the region this evening into tonight.

An upper level ridge will amplify once again across the West Tuesday. An upper level low associated with the polar jet will shift into the northern Rockies and High Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. The associated dry cold front will cross into northern and central Utah Wednesday, though the majority of the ensemble members have trended weaker with this front. Expect temperatures Wednesday to be around 3-5 degrees cooler, mainly across northern and central Utah.

An upper level low will shift south along the California coast Thursday into Friday. A few showers or thunderstorms along the remnant boundary across northern Utah Thursday afternoon and evening as an area of upper diffluence shifts into the Great Basin. Any precipitation will be light and may represent more a dry microburst threat.

Conditions will trend drier Friday as the remnant boundary shifts north and west of the area. The upper level low will eject across the Desert Southwest Saturday as the next in a series of upper level lows drops south out of the Gulf of Alaska. This period...Saturday into Monday...represents the highest chance for significant precipitation. Guidance suggests the snow level will fall to near 6500-7000 feet by early Monday. Current chance of advisory amounts of snow for the Wasatch Mountains (ie 9+ inches) is less than 20%, even over the extended Sunday into Monday period. 25th to 75th percentile SWE/rain amounts are currently between 0.25-0.50" for most valleys Saturday afternoon through Monday, with most mountain locations falling between 0.75-1.25".

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Largely terrain-driven winds will persist, with most locations seeing VFR conditions and mid to high clouds. Across southern Utah, however, isolated to scattered high-based showers could produce gusty and erratic outflow winds (10% chance of greater than 35kts) before roughly 02-03z.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.