textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- A few showers will linger over portions of eastern Utah tonight before dry conditions develop areawide Thursday through the weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures.

- Confidence remains relatively high that a more active pattern will return next week, though uncertainty is higher than usual in the timing or details of any systems that may move through.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The slow moving low pressure system that has been impacting Utah and southwest Wyoming the past few days has moved into Colorado this evening. Most areas remain dry behind it, but some showers persist over eastern Utah on the back side of the system. As the low continues east overnight, the remaining precipitation will diminish.

Temperatures stayed on the cold side today with maxes running 10-15F above seasonal normals. with a bit of a Rex Block pattern developing over the Pacific coast over the next few days, conditions will stay dry through the weekend with highs warming to near seasonal normals for Saturday and Sunday.

Most guidance indicates the Rex Block breaking by Saturday as a Pacific Northwest trough moves it out of the way before tracking along the US/Canada border. The absence of the ridge would open up the West to a more active storm track next week. However, there remains considerable spread as to the timing and track of these systems. The most popular solution brings a Pacific system across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing primarily rain due to the warm nature of the system. A minority of guidance, however, (including the latest deterministic ECMWF) keep the low off the California coast through midweek, allowing dry conditions to persist longer. Models tend to struggle with closed low features, so hopefully more confidence in the details comes in future runs.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions and light northwest winds will prevail throughout the day. There is a 30% chance winds become light southeasterly before 16Z this morning. Northwest winds will return to a southeasterly drainage wind this evening around 02Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Gusty easterly winds will develop at KEVW this morning and persist through the day, while winds at the remainder of northern TAF sites remain light northerly. Gusty northeast winds will develop at KCDC and KSGU by early afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 219 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The low pressure system which has been slowly crossing the region over the past couple of days will finally move east today, leaving a cool and stable airmass in its wake. Increased sunshine will allow temperatures to trend warmer today, but remain a few degrees below normal. Strengthening high pressure will bring a warming and drying trend heading into the weekend resulting in seasonal temperatures for mid-October. A weather system will bring a few showers to southern Utah Sunday, however the next significant storm system to impact the region will arrive during the middle to latter portion of next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.