textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1023 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Conditions remain mostly dry across the area through the weekend and into next week.

- Dangerous heat develops across the entire forecast area this weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure settles in bringing an increased risk for heat related illness.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions for portions of Utah Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Conditions are trending drier and hotter as a ridge currently centered over New Mexico continues to march toward the west. It will also strengthen and elongate as it treks to the west. This will keep the drying trend going as it cuts off the monsoon moisture tap with a weak westerly flow developing. Additionally, temperatures will approach near record territory for portions of the CWA. 700mb temperatures peak on Saturday with the 50th percentile ~20C and the 75th percentile ~21C. When we recorded our all-time record high of 109F a few weeks ago our 700mb temp also broke the all-time high of 21C. Our upper level temperatures will be close to that, but given weaker southerly flow we should go to a northerly lake-breeze sooner than the day we hit 109F.

Our forecast high on Saturday will likely be in the 103-106 range. 110F is the current forecast for St. George. Overnight recoveries will also be warm, however the drier airmass should at least allow temperatures to drop into the 70s, rather than the 80s we saw this past week when cloud cover and moisture kept overnight lows well into the 80s. Regardless, the heat risk will be elevated this week. Smoke from nearby wildfires will need to be monitored as the weekend progresses to see if it influences the temperatures, but winds favor less smoke given the southerly/westerly orientation and most fire are to our northwest.

A trough passing by to our north late this weekend will bring a weak cold front through the area with a dip in temperatures closer to normal with the most noticeable drop across northern Utah. As this trough approaches, the pressure gradient will tighten with southwesterly flow increasing. This combined with low RH will elevate the critical fire weather conditions, particularly across central and eastern Utah where winds are expected to be strongest (25-35 mph gusts).

Moisture will slowly start to creep back into southern Utah towards the end of next week as the ridge gradually tracks back to the east, but guidance is showing a variance of several days so exact timing remains uncertain.

AVIATION

KSLC...Winds will remain light and variable until a transition to northwesterly expected after 19z or so. Light, southeasterly flow is likely to return after 04-05z this evening. VFR conditions will prevail with elevated wildfire smoke producing hazy skies, but no surface VIS reductions.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds will remain light and terrain-driven during the valid TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop after 19z primarily over the Uinta Mountains, across southwest WY, and along the eastern UT-ID border. Showers will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds. VFR conditions will prevail with elevated wildfire smoke producing hazy skies but no surface VIS reductions.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure shifts further west, strengthens, and elongates across the west. This will bring more of a westerly flow to the area which will act to cut off the monsoon moisture tap. Additionally, hot and potentially record-breaking temperatures will settle into the area this weekend. Some lingering moisture trapped under the high pressure will keep some very isolated chances of diurnal weak storms in the forecast for the next couple of days, but these will primarily be confined to the higher terrain.

A weak cold front will graze northern Utah on Monday. As it approaches, southwesterly winds will strengthen across the area on Sunday and Monday. These winds will combine with RH in the single digits to create elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions with poor overnight recoveries struggling to get into the 20%+ range. Current forecasts show central and eastern Utah as having the greatest probabilities of these critical fire weather conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ101- 115-116-120>122.

Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ102-104>106-114.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon Friday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ123-124-128>131.

WY...None.