textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Valley rain and mountain snow will continue through the morning, before shifting to a more showery nature this afternoon and gradually ending.

- The heaviest snow accumulations will occur across the southern mountains, where a winter weather advisory continues through 11 AM this morning.

- Another colder storm will impact the region Monday evening through Wednesday morning, bringing snow levels as low as 4800 feet to northern Utah. This storm will bring more substantial snow accumulations to the mountains of Utah, with another 6 to 12 inches of snow increasing in probability for the upper Cottonwoods, as well as the southern mountains.

- Another even colder system will impact much of Utah Thursday into Saturday. This storm has the highest probability of snow levels down to valley floors (around 60% chance of snow levels at or below 4200 ft by Saturday morning). Current forecast for valley floors is up to an inch of snow.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1048 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

A negatively-tilted trough is making its way across the western CONUS this evening. This trough is the result of phasing between a southern stream system ejecting across the desert southwest and a larger system over the PacNW coast. Southerly flow ahead of the trough axis (which currently extends from the Washington coast through western Arizona) remains in place over Utah this evening, which has drawn moisture northward into the forecast area. Showers have already developed, and will continue to increase in coverage overnight. These showers occurring in the warm sector will maintain snow levels mainly above 8 kft through much of the night.

A cold front is expected to move into western Utah before 12z and reach the I-15 corridor between 15-17z. Widespread precipitation near the cold front is then expected to quickly decrease behind it, clearing out in many valleys through the late morning and early afternoon timeframe. The exception will be the mountains and immediate upslope areas where a brief period of favorable orographics will maintain precipitation, especially along northwest aspects. Additionally, some enhancement off the GSL may allow additional showers along the central Wasatch Front and adjacent mountains into the afternoon. Snow levels will quickly lower with the passage of the cold front, with H7 temperatures falling to -4 to -5C towards the end of the precipitation event. This would suggest snow levels down to 6.5-7 kft, although the greatest (and any real impactful) accumulation can be expected above 8-9 kft. Most valleys are expected to see between 0.25-0.7 inches of precipitation with this storm, with between 0.4 to 1.25 inches in the mountains. Locally higher amounts are possible especially near Brian Head and in the upper Cottonwoods. Snow amounts are generally expected to be in the 4-8 inch range (especially above 8-9 kft) with higher amounts in the upper Cottonwoods and near Brian Head.

An upper ridge shifting into the area Saturday night through Sunday will bring a period of drier and stable conditions. The ridge will shift east for Monday, bringing increased southerly flow ahead of the next approaching storm system. This progressive pattern will keep any strong inversions at bay.

The next storm looks to arrive over Utah late Monday night or Tuesday, impacting the area into Wednesday morning. Latest model trends suggest another quick-hitting progressive trough which will bring another round of widespread precipitation to the area. However, this storm looks to be associated with a somewhat cooler airmass. LREF means of H7 temperatures for portions of northern Utah dip as low as -8C, which suggest snow levels down to at least 5 kft.

As this trough exits the area, it will be followed quickly by yet another storm system. While cluster analysis of global ensembles show high confidence in a storm for the second half of next week, there remain some differences regarding its timing and evolution. This storm may arrive as early as Wednesday night but may hold off until later Thursday. Additionally, some members are suggesting that this will end up being another progressive trough while others maintain a closed low solution which would bring an extended period of precipitation to the area. Latest cluster analysis shows an approximately 55%/45% split, favoring the closed low solution slightly.

AVIATION...KSLC

An area of moderate to heavy rain will continue to shift across the terminal ahead of a cold front through around 17Z. The wind shift with the cold front to northwest is expected around this time, followed by precipitation shifting to a more showery mode. Rain showers will continue to impact the terminal and the vicinity through 21-22Z before ending. MVFR conditions are most probable ahead of the front in heavier precipitation.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...An area of moderate to heavy valley rain and mountain snow will continue to shift across northern Utah. A cold front will cross the Wasatch Front around 17Z, bringing a shift toward a showery mode before ending around 21-22Z. For central and southern Utah, areas of valley rain showers and mountain snow showers will gradually end after 18Z. MVFR conditions are most likely this morning, particularly near heavier rain and mountain snow.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for UTZ125.

WY...None.