textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A dry cold front will continue traversing across UT and SW WY today bringing gusty conditions and cooling northern UT to near- normal temperatures today and Friday.

- Near or just below freezing temperatures will develop this evening across the northern Wasatch Front and the Cache Valley.

- Ridging builds back in Saturday bringing potentially record breaking warmth and dry conditions to the forecast area through at least Monday.

- A pattern shift is expected to occur as early as Tuesday bringing wetter and cooler temperatures to the forecast area through at least Thursday.

DISCUSSION

A cold front is currently progressing through N UT and SW WY resulting in gusts ranging from 20-30mph with a few gusts approaching 40mph across the West Desert. Gusts will hold on across the aforementioned locations and develop across the remainder of UT throughout the day and hold on through around midnight before tapering off. A tight pressure gradient with north-northeasterly winds will exist across Washington and Iron counties this evening into Friday morning. This will lead to the development of gap winds along I-15 and canyons across western Washington county this evening bringing gusts up to 40mph, dissipating by early Friday morning.

The cold front passing through will serve to moderate temperatures across primarily N UT and SW WY, keeping temperatures closer to seasonal normals this afternoon and Friday afternoon. Additionally, temperatures overnight tonight will drop notably, potentially below freezing across far eastern Box Elder county, the northern Wasatch Front, and the Cache Valley.

Ridging builds back in Saturday bringing another period of potentially record breaking high temperatures and dry weather. From Saturday through Monday, modest mid-upper level moisture will wrap into the western periphery of the ridge and make its way into UT. While ascent remains weak, orographics may compensate resulting in chances for high terrain showers increasing each day through the aforementioned period. Some dry microburst potential exists for lower elevation terrain across UT during this time, though exact locations remain highly uncertain.

A pattern shift looks to develop Tuesday, persisting through the end of the work week bring cooler and wetter conditions to the region and potentially ushering in the return of high elevation snowfall. Ensembles remain split regarding this solution, primarily due to the forward speed of the southern stream perturbation. Roughly 50% of ensembles have a slower solution, where the southern stream perturbation would phase into the mean flow with an upper trough pushing in from the PNW. This would result in a deeper trough, yielding stronger forcing across the area and potentially result in higher precipitation values across the area. Additionally, this solution could prolong a northwesterly flow component increasing potential for accumulating valley snow across the Upper Cottonwoods. The faster solution modeled in the other 50% of ensemble members would support an open wave, yielding more modest accumulations and stretching out the event somewhat longer. Uncertainty with how this unfolds remains high, though confidence is high in a shift from hot and dry to cooler and wetter next week.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. North to northwest winds gusting to around 25 mph can be expected across northern terminals through the afternoon, with winds diminishing around sunset. A cold front will cross southern Utah late this afternoon and evening, resulting in a wind shift at both CDC and SGU. These winds will also diminish by 06Z.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277.