textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 126 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Gusty winds and very low RH will bring another round of critical fire weather conditions across eastern Utah Tuesday, including the San Rafael Swell, Western Canyonlands, and Henry Mountains regions.

- Locally critical to critical fire weather conditions will continue through the week for areas of central, eastern, and southern Utah with the strongest and most widespread winds on Friday.

DISCUSSION, Issued 126 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A shortwave is currently moving through the region with a cloud deck moving through the middle of Utah and producing some light showers and VIRGA. These showers will develop into some isolated convection, primarily over the mountains as daytime heating leads to some weak de-stabilization. Additionally, these clouds are helping to keep temperatures on the cooler side which may result in high temperatures for the day in these areas falling a few degrees shy of where models have them.

This shortwave is leading to wind gusts in the mid 20s across portions of eastern and south central Utah. This, paired with relative humidity in the low teens, is resulting in critical fire weather conditions across the San Rafael Swell and Henry Mountains where red flag warnings are in effect through 9pm. Elevated locally critical fire weather conditions exist across south central Utah near the Arizona border.

The parent trough responsible for these shortwaves will stay situated across the PNW and keep southwesterly flow in place through the end of the week. This will keep elevated fire weather conditions in place across the southern 2/3rds of Utah through Friday. Winds will peak and be the most widespread on Friday. Flow around the trough will become more confined to the PNW this weekend with less shortwaves circumventing it by this weekend as a ridge begins to build across the four corners. This will help to weaken the winds, but the trade-off will be hotter temperatures developing this weekend into early next week.

Looking further out in time, mean ensemble guidance is starting to signal the first development of a four corner's ridge by next week. This could be the start of our monsoon pattern. It will take the ridge a few days to advect moisture into the area with most of the guidance holding off on appreciable moisture pushes until the second week of July.

AVIATION, Issued 126 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

KSLC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Current upper level cloud cover and occasional isolated rain showers will continue clearing through the afternoon. Diurnal wind shifts are expected with southerly winds kicking in around 03z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are exected to persist through the TAF period. Current upper level cloud cover and occasional isolated rain showers will continue clearing through the afternoon across our northern UT sites. Diurnal winds are expected across all sites.

FIRE WEATHER

A shortwave moving through Utah is leading to wind gusts in the mid 20s across portions of eastern and south central Utah this afternoon. This, paired with relative humidity in the low teens, is resulting in critical fire weather conditions across the San Rafael Swell and Henry Mountains where red flag warnings are in effect through 9pm. Elevated locally critical fire weather conditions exist across south central Utah near the Arizona border.

The parent trough responsible for these shortwaves will stay situated across the PNW and keep southwesterly flow in place through the end of the week. This will keep elevated fire weather conditions in place across the southern 2/3rds of Utah through Friday. Winds will peak and be the most widespread on Friday. Flow around the trough will become more confined to the PNW this weekend with less shortwaves circumventing it by this weekend as a ridge begins to build across the four corners. This will help to weaken the winds, but the trade-off will be hotter temperatures developing this weekend into early next week.

Models are starting to signal a monsoon pattern developing within the next 10 to 14 days, but a high amount of uncertainty exists that far out so we will continue to monitor this trend.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ489-494.

WY...None.