textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1049 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Southerly flow redeveloping Friday will allow monsoonal moisture to briefly fill back in statewide and bring an increased flash flood threat, before somewhat drier air returns for the weekend. - Heat concerns return to Utah starting this Friday, lasting through at least Monday as temperatures rise across the region with anomalously warm overnight temperatures offering little relief.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1049 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

High pressure over the area will shift eastward for Friday, allowing a south to southwesterly flow to return to the area. This will spread moisture back throughout Utah. PWATs this evening range from 0.8-0.9 inches across northern Utah to 1.1 inches across southern Utah, and will increase to around 1 inch across the north to 1.3 inches across southwest Utah by late Friday afternoon. Expect this to bring increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast area for Friday afternoon and evening, with an increased potential for flash flooding. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall continues for portions of southern Utah for Friday.

The flow turns a bit more westerly for the weekend, which will lead to a decreasing trend in PWATs. Even so, enough moisture will linger to produce isolated to scattered convection, with an associated decrease in flash flood potential. Another moisture surge looks to be in store for the area during the early to middle portion of next week, before another drying trend towards the end of week. As such, expect convection coverage to increase and decrease with the moisture.

In addition to a return to wetter conditions, this pattern will bring an increase in temperatures especially across northern Utah Friday into the weekend as the ridge not only shifts but H5 heights continue to climb as the ridge amplifies. Daytime highs soar back to the century mark for many locations across the Wasatch Front, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s offering very little relief. As such, increasingly widespread Major HeatRisk emerges through this period, indicating an elevated threat for heat illness especially for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Areas where cloud cover and remnant surface moisture will see the least overnight cooling, and there is indication that some areas with lows sitting around 80F could reach Extreme HeatRisk (~20% chance). If outdoors for festivities this weekend, make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning often.

AVIATION, Issued 1049 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

KSLC...Mostly VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Conditions will remain dry and stable through the overnight before convection develops tomorrow afternoon around the terminal. There is ~30% chance of convection impacting the terminal between 19Z-02Z with gusty and erratic winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rain possible. Otherwise, light diurnal winds will continue.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mostly VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Convection across the south is slowly dissipating with mostly dry and stable conditions through the overnight for all of the terminals. Convection re-develops tomorrow afternoon with ~30% chance of terminal impacts from lightning, gusty and erratic winds, and brief heavy rain. Otherwise, winds will remain light and diurnally driven.

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon across the entire state, with higher spatial coverage than yesterday. These showers will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph (10% chance), lightning, and periods of heavy rain given slow storm motions. Storms will initiate over higher terrain as early as 1200, becoming more widespread after 1500. Outside of any outflow, winds will remain fairly light and terrain-driven. Drier air moving into southern Utah on Saturday will greatly limit storm development, but this break will be short-lived as moisture returns on Sunday. Daytime RH will approach critical values across many valleys each afternoon through at least Sunday, with marginal overnight recoveries (35-50% for those same valleys).

There is lower forecast confidence with moisture and thus thunderstorm development next week, though temperatures are expected to remain above normal into next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for UTZ103>107.

WY...None.