textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- One more round tonight of freezing temperature for sensitive ag areas, followed by a warming trend into the weekend.

- Enhanced easterly canyon winds may develop along the northern Wasatch Front Thursday night into Friday morning, with a low chance (15%) of downslope winds exceeding 50 mph.

- The next of daily shower/thunderstorm chances moves in next week, though with warmer temperatures in comparison to the last storm cycle.

DISCUSSION

A few showers are lingering this evening under overall cyclonic flow across the western US. As showers dwindle over the next few hours, skies will continue to clear, allowing temperatures to drop below freezing once again across several valleys across the state, namely Iron-Beaver-Millard-Juab counties, Sanpete and Sevier valleys, and the western Uinta Basin. This will likely be the last day for these areas to reach below freezing for awhile, as a warming trend is expected through at least this weekend.

Broad cyclonic flow will remain in place across the Intermountain West through Friday. With some lingering moisture, daytime heating, and weak shortwave troughs rotating through the flow, expect chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms each afternoon, primarily over higher terrain. Instability looks to be highest on Thursday as the main cold core shifts overhead, with the highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon, particularly across higher terrain. As these showers will be high-based, the main threat will be gusty and erratic outflow winds. Additionally, as ridging builds into the Interior Northwest, easterly flow will develop across northern UT/southwest WY, potentially producing easterly canyon winds along the northern Wasatch Front and Cache Valley. Model guidance isn't terribly excited about any downslope winds developing, though local guidance suggests a 10-20% chance of stronger winds developing.

Over the weekend, high pressure will build across the area, resulting in even warmer temperatures reaching 5-10 degrees above normal. However, moisture could start to increase ahead of the next system as early as Sunday, perhaps bringing isolated showers to higher terrain Sunday afternoon.

Next week, our attention turns to a strong closed low developing off the west coast. Typically, closed low tracks can be difficult to forecast, but model guidance generally suggests this low tracks inland early next week and across UT/AZ. This system doesn't appear to be as cold as recent storms, with snow levels reaching down to somewhere between 7000-9000ft as more precipitation arrives early next week.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry conditions with a few mid level clouds will continue. Diurnal cumulus will develop during the day with <15% chance of precipitation in the afternoon. Winds will remain light and diurnally driven.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ114>116-118-119- 122.

WY...None.