textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will be in place through the weekend, with dry conditions and temperatures around 10-20F warmer than normal.

- Unsettled weather looks to make a return to northern Utah by the middle of next week, though specific details remain uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION

Another warm day across the region today, though a skosh cooler as increased subsidence across the area has resulted in more limited mixing alongside a cooler start to the day. All things considered, high temperatures reached 15-20 degrees above normal across the forecast area.

Utah and southwest Wyoming will be on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge through at least Saturday, though broad high pressure will remain in place through at least Tuesday next week. As such, daily high temperatures will remain a solid 10-20 degrees above climatological normals for this time of year while the ridge persists. Overhead temperatures will warm gradually through Sunday, allowing for subsidence inversions to strengthen through the weekend. Mixing will become more and more limited each day, making it difficult for valley areas to warm up alongside the increasing overhead temperatures. In fact, anticipate a slight cooling trend for valleys over the weekend while the higher elevations warm.

By Tuesday the pattern begins to change a bit as the ridge becomes suppressed by the active northern storm track. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the northern stream will introduce enough energy and moisture into northern Utah to provide a shot of high elevation snowfall to the northern mountains around Wednesday. While most model guidance is in support of the moisture reaching into northern Utah, there is still a low end probability (10% chance) that nothing noteworthy occurs. Contrarily, there is about a 30% chance that the storm track dips farther south and introduces more energy into northern Utah. Paired with the moisture, this would allow for higher precipitation amounts (0.5in or greater) across the northern mountains. At this current time, the most likely areas to be affected by this mid-week storm are those north of the I-80 corridor. Big picture precipitation trends will favor rain in valley areas and snowfall at high elevations. Where do snow levels fall to? How much precip? What about timing? These are all questions that will become more clear in the coming days.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Winds will remain light and terrain-driven, with VFR conditions prevailing under mostly clear skies. Fog is unlikely anywhere given such dry conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.