textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances diminish overnight into Monday morning as moisture decreases.

- A cold front will advance to around central Utah overnight into Monday, with cooler temperatures pushing into areas further north behind the front.

- Drier conditions are favored for much of the upcoming work week, with temperatures generally increasing day to day.

DISCUSSION

Synoptic pattern evolving more or less as expected. A broad upper low is extended southward from the PacNW, with an associated shortwave impulse pivoting through nearby and a cold frontal boundary advancing into northwest Utah. A stream of tropical moisture has continued to advect into the region within the enhanced southwest flow, resulting in a somewhat narrow band of persistent shower activity. A lack of destabilization has largely kept these showers shallow and more stratiform in nature, and observed rain rates have struggled to push much past 0.10" per hour or so, even with PWATs around 0.8" to 1.2". A few slightly more organized cells managed to develop across northwest Utah and produce some instances of stronger wind gusts, but otherwise this system has not produced much in the way of overly impactful weather locally.

The cold front will continue to progress southeastward through the night, with lingering moisture helping to maintain some scattered shower activity across northern Utah into Monday morning. The more marked moisture plume will shift eastward though, allowing precipitation to largely diminish elsewhere across the forecast area through the overnight hours. The front will progress into central Utah before eventually stalling and beginning to wash out, but cooler temperatures will move in behind it. Across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, afternoon highs will run around 5-10 degrees below climatological normal. Across southern Utah temperatures will increase in comparison to Sunday given more limited cloud cover, but even then highs will be near to a little below normal.

Moving through the work week, models favor a largely dry and zonal flow being maintained overhead. Temperatures will gradually moderate back upwards in turn. In comparison to prior forecast cycles, ensembles seem to be trending away from much of a moisture return, and as such precipitation chances remain low. There is some semblance of another northern stream system digging into the area around the weekend, but minimal consensus on the depth/strength of any such feature, or what sort of moisture would be available to interact with. Overall confidence in specifics remains low though, so will need to continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Gusty southerly winds continue overnight into early Monday morning before shifting northwesterly after roughly 12z behind the passage of a cold front. Conditions remain overall dry, with decreasing cloud cover into Monday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Gusty southerly winds continue through early Monday morning ahead of a cold front passage, mainly across northern and western Utah. The northern half of the airspace will see a switch to lighter northwesterly winds behind this frontal passage early to mid Monday morning. A band of stratiform rain currently along the spine of Utah will taper off as it moves eastward tonight. Thunderstorms continue this evening over far northern Utah, with potential to bring lightning and erratic winds to KLGU. Otherwise, conditions remain dry for the remainder of the airspace through Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front will settle into central Utah overnight into Monday, with cooler temperatures briefly pushing in behind it. As the front washes out into Tuesday, temperatures areawide will start to gradually increase. With the departure of the associated system, dry conditions are largely favored to return and persist through the upcoming work week. There is some model support for moisture returning with another system by the weekend, be confidence in specifics is low at this time.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.