textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1028 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Very dry conditions will continue over Utah and southwest Wyoming through the weekend. Hot conditions will continue for the remainder of the work week before highs move closer to seasonal normals for the weekend.

- Areas of critical fire weather conditions will continue to impact portions of southern and eastern Utah through Wednesday due to a combination of the very dry conditions and breezy northwesterly winds.

- Another round of gusty winds up to 35-45 mph combined with very dry relative humidity values will bring the threat of critical fire weather conditions to western Utah on Friday.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1028 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A dry and somewhat breezy west to northwest flow persists over Utah and southwest Wyoming this evening. Skies are clear across the area except for central Utah, where the passage of a weak and dry boundary has brought some scattered high clouds. Conditions remain quite dry, and this combined to create another round of critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern and eastern Utah during the afternoon. Highs were on the hot side again this afternoon with maxes 5-7F above seasonal normals across northern portions of the area and up to 10F above seasonal normals over southern Utah.

Conditions will remain quite dry behind the boundary, with its main impact being to simply curb the warming trend. Thus, the temperature forecast for Wednesday looks similar to today. Winds are expected to relax a bit overnight due to the front, but the pressure gradient is expected to increase again by Wednesday afternoon as the trailing shortwave from the Canadian system moves across Idaho and Wyoming, putting breezy winds back in the forecast and necessitating another Red Flag Warning for the same areas as today.

Behind that trailing shortwave, there is high confidence that the ridge will make its way onshore, settling over the Great Basin for Thursday afternoon. This will bring much lighter flow over the area and bring a very slight increase in moisture for southern Utah, decreasing the fire danger for the area. The ridge continues east thereafter, moving overhead for Friday morning and east of the area for the afternoon. This will bring noticeably warmer temperatures to northern portions of the forecast area, while the approach of a weakly organized Pacific trough (the one nudging the ridge out of the way) will bring modestly less warm temperatures to southwest Utah. Increasingly breezy southerly winds on the back side of the ridge will combine with the continued dry conditions to bring the threat of critical fire weather conditions over western Utah, though there is a chance relative humidity values will be too high across the higher terrain.

The majority of guidance brings the ill-defined trough across northern Utah during the day Saturday. Its position should quickly bring a dry tongue of moisture into southern Utah, wiping out the previous relative humidity gains, but should bring enough moisture and instability for a few showers for northern portions of the area, primarily near the Utah/Idaho border. Highs will most likely return to values within 5F of seasonal normals during this time, with the less warm temperatures continuing into Sunday as lingering shortwave energy from the trough keeps things a bit unsettled.

Behind that trough, the leading solution in guidance is to bring high pressure over the area once again, bringing more hot and dry weather for the upcoming week.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry and stable conditions with a few high clouds will continue. Smoke from a wildfire northwest of the CDC terminal could slightly limit VIS, primarily during the day.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure remaining centered west of Utah will maintain warm and dry conditions over Utah again today. Afternoon relative humidities will fall to the single digits in most valley areas through Friday with poor overnight recoveries. Northwest flow aloft will continue to strengthen today, leading to gusty west to northwest winds at the surface. These winds, when combined with the low humidities, will bring critical fire weather conditions to the central and southern mountains and eastern valleys today. The high pressure will shift overhead tomorrow, resulting in a decrease in winds. However, isolated/marginal critical fire weather conditions may remain possible.

High pressure will shift east Friday into the weekend as a weather disturbance approaches Utah. With southwest winds increasing and humidities remaining low ahead of a Friday night cold front, critical fire weather conditions will shift to western and southern Utah for Friday. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible as early as Thursday afternoon across the southern mountains, and Friday afternoon across northwestern Utah. This trend may expand with time over the weekend.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for UTZ478-492-495.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ482-484-488- 489-493-494-496-498.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for UTZ497.

WY...None.