textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1054 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across Utah and southwest Wyoming again on Wednesday. Storms will be capable of producing isolated flash flooding across central and southern Utah and gusty outflow winds across northern Utah.

- Monsoonal moisture continues to overspread the region through the week, with chances for locally heavy rainfall becoming more widespread with an elevated flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1054 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A southerly flow aloft remains in place over Utah this evening, with high pressure situated to the east. This pattern has allowed monsoonal moisture to continue spreading into the area. PWATs across most valleys with the exception of northeast Utah are now over an inch, with up to around 1.3 inches across far southwest Utah. Expect PWATS to continue to slowly increase through the end of the week and into early next week (widespread PWATs of 1.25 inches or more are expected by the end of the week). With the low levels continuing to moisten, this will bring an increased threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to the area.

Not seeing much in the way of large-scale forcing in the models at this time to aid widespread heavy rain or any real severe threat. Given this and weak flow, expect most showers and thunderstorms to develop over/near the higher terrain, then largely propagate along cold pools and instability gradients. However, slow storm motions along with potential training could serve as focus points for localized areas of heavy rain.

AVIATION, Issued 1054 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

KSLC, Issued 1054 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026... There is still a 60% chance of a W outflow pushing in ~07Z. Wind will settle back S prior to sunrise, and is expected shift back NW ~15-17Z. There is around a 10-20% chance of convection at the terminal Wednesday afternoon, and once again potential for some outflow related wind variability. A general mix of VFR cloud cover above 12 kft is expected, with amounts varying on area convection.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Some remnant outflows will continue to settle out in the next few hours, with terminals otherwise expected to settle back into a diurnally normal flow pattern. For Wednesday afternoon, a similar convective pattern is expected with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, and a corresponding potential for gusty erratic outflow winds. The highest coverage area is roughly along and east of Utah's high terrain and portions of southwest Utah through the West Desert. That said, outflows may impact other terminals further away from convection. VFR cloud cover generally above 10 kft is expected, though brief periods of reduced CIGS/VIS possible in convection.

FIRE WEATHER

Monsoonal moisture remains solidly in place today, favoring another round of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily across the eastern half of Utah. Any showers or thunderstorms will develop initially over the high terrain, drifting into adjacent valley areas through the afternoon. Coverage of these storms will be greatest for areas east of the I-15 corridor, with medium to high chances (30 to 80 percent) for showers or storms to produce a wetting rain. The highest likelihood for wetting rains exists in the southern mountains and the Uinta Mountains, with lower probability in the central mountains and southern/ central Wasatch. For Utah's West Desert region, chances for shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to be around 10 percent or less. In addition to the storm activity, increased moisture will help to bring higher afternoon humidity for much of the region, with fair to excellent overnight recoveries expected. Moisture remains in place through the week, bringing daily shower and thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain across the state.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.