textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 934 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- High pressure is favored to persist, bringing correspondingly dry and mild conditions through the first week of October.

- There is a low (~20-30%) chance of a weak passing system early next week to bring isolated showers to portions of the area.

DISCUSSION, Issued 934 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Evening water vapor analysis shows a mid to upper level low ejecting from New Mexico into the south/central Plains. Moisture wrapping around this system has brought some cloud cover over portions of east to southeast Utah, but this is continuing to scour out of the area. With clearing skies, seasonably cool weather is expected overnight into Thursday morning.

Ridging will gradually build into the Intermountain West progressing into the weekend. This will result in 700 mb temperatures across the area rising to around 10-12 C by the weekend, above the climatological 90th percentile. Daily highs and lows will in turn increase to well above normal with afternoon highs generally running about 5-15 F above typical for early October. While models support a trough digging from the PacNW into the central/northern Plains over the weekend, it is favored that the strong ridge centered nearby will keep any impacts from this system east of the region. As such, dry conditions are favored into the weekend.

Models do support a weakening trough moving inland off the Pacific coast early next week, but are mixed on any potential impacts. This is largely due to differences in forecast moisture amounts, exact track, and overall synoptic forcing. At this time, 20-30% of available ensemble members carry sufficient ingredients to bring isolated showers to portions of the area, primarily higher terrain and southern Utah. Even then, there is limited indication of much of a thermal element to this as the potential system becomes more cutoff or washed out, and above normal temperatures are likely to continue.

Aside from the potential early week system, some flavor of ridging is expected to return or persist into the middle of the upcoming week. As further supported by the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day temperatures/precipitation outlooks, the pattern is favored to maintain milder and drier than normal conditions.

AVIATION, Issued 1028 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period. Clear skies will prevail with diurnal wind, with a shift to northwesterly expected around 18z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist across the airspace through the TAF period. Clear skies will persist with diurnal winds expected.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will continue to build into the region today, continuing a drying and warming trend. Expect this trend to continue through the weekend. A weak system crossing the region Monday into Tuesday may bring the the threat of showers and thunderstorms to much of the state, though the chance of widespread wetting rains is low.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.