textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to impact primarily northern portions of the forecast area through Wednesday morning. Any storms that develop are capable of producing gusty outflow winds.

- High pressure will bring dry conditions and a warming trend late Wednesday through at least the first part of the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Midday satellite and H5 analysis place a deformation axis across northern Utah as an upper low over SoCal remains coupled with a deepening trough over Wyoming. Scattered showers coincident remain prevalent across the north, while areas across southwest Wyoming have changed p-type to moderate snow largely due to increased intensity attendant with a backdoor cold front from the northeast. The latter should gradually taper mid to late afternoon under decreasing baroclinicity, but in large areal extent of shower activity across the northern third of the area will be on the increase with additional diurnal heating.

The northern branch trough will become the dominant feature tonight as it deepens over Colorado, shifting a more diffuse deformation zone south and east across the area through mid morning tomorrow. Scattered shower potential will largely remain tied to this feature, but building heights from the west will rapidly stabilize the forecast area by midday.

Thereafter, its all about a continuation of building heights driving a notable warming trend through the remainder of the forecast period and beyond. Model consensus continues to key in on High pressure amplifying upstream, then gradually building over the eastern Great Basin by early next week.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

For southern terminals, dry conditions expected to hold. Winds through this time will also tend to be diurnally normal. At northern terminals, shower chances are expected to increase this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms also developing, with IFR snow across southwest Wyoming through 20-21z but gradually improving thereafter. Storms will be capable of gusty erratic outflow winds as well as brief reductions to CIGS/VIS.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.