textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Nocturnal convection will push from north to south with precipitation ending by midday tomorrow.

- Marginal freezing temperatures Wednesday morning across Cache Valley and western Uinta Basin.

- High pressure will bring dry conditions and a warming trend through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Nocturnal convection is currently moving through northern Utah as the axis of the trough to our northeast swings through the area. This convection should sustain itself, thanks to some decent shear, as it tracks into central Utah overnight. The main threat with this convection will be frequent lightning and the potential for some gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, storm motions will be fast enough to limit the threat of flash flooding.

An abnormally cold airmass will accompany this trough with areas in the Cache Valley and western Uinta Basin flirting with freezing temperatures Wednesday morning. The most recent guidance that has come in has temperatures a degree or two warmer across most locations due to the lingering cloud cover and elevated winds. However, Thursday morning will see another threat for freezing conditions, primarily across Sanpete valley and the western Uinta Basin. Cache Valley will likely stay above freezing as temperatures do start to quickly warm aloft.

One last shortwave on Thursday will graze the northern CWA which could produce some diurnal showers near the Idaho and Wyoming borders. Otherwise, ridging builds back into the area with dry and stable conditions pairing with unusually warm, and potentially record breaking, temperatures by early next week. Forecast temperatures by next Monday and Tuesday are currently sitting at 90 degrees for KSLC, which would mark the first 90 degree day of the year and one of the earliest on record. This dry pattern could stick around for a while with only 20% of ensemble members producing any precipitation for the next 10 days.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Isolated to scattered showers will continue through dawn or so, especially at northern terminals. In addition, northern terminals near terrain may see some easterly terrain driven winds try to sneak in. Wind directions may be a bit variable for a bit given the different influences, but should begin to settle out northerly by mid morning. Terminals will then see a clearing trend through the day, with winds favored to remain northerly. Winds then begin to follow a more diurnally normal trend into the evening, excepting SGU which may see a period of down- canyon winds develop near sunset.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ107-114.

WY...None.