textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1033 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- A weak shortwave moves through on Tuesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the mountains. - Guidance is trending towards colder and wetter next weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1035 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Very warm temperatures for this time of year will continue over the next several days with tomorrow being the warmest of this stretch. Highs in the mid to upper 80s will challenge daily records across the area. The KSLC record for the day tomorrow is 87. The high today was 86, and with slightly lower heights and cloud cover increase ahead of a weak shortwave it will be a tall task to challenge the record.

This weak shortwave will move through on Tuesday. Decent moisture will be available with PWATs between 0.55-0.65", but the forcing will be lacking. This will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms late Monday through Tuesday, primarily in the mountains as they will act as the primary forcing mechanism. Temperatures behind this wave will remain well above normal in the low 80s (low to mid 90s for St. George) for most valley locations through the remainder of the week.

By next weekend the pattern will start to change at our first significant trough of the season is poised to move through the western CONUS. There are a lot of moving parts with this setup as there will be tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Rachel in the eastern Pacific that could get advected into the incoming trough. The uncertainty with the track of Rachel and the timing of the trough have ensemble members posing quite a range of solutions from an earlier trough passage (~59% of members) with less moisture to a delayed trough passage (~41% of members) with more moisture. Additionally, a few ensemble members are also bringing in more of a continental airmass from interior Canada that doesn't phase with the tropical moisture and keeps most of the moisture east of the Continental Divide. All of this happens some time late this weekend into early next week. The most certain aspect of the forecast will be a significant drop in temperatures with a cold front that will be associated with the trough.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period with high clouds increasing throughout the day. Winds remain generally light today, with southeasterly winds transitioning to the northwest around 20z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions expected to prevail across all regional terminals through the TAF period. High clouds will increase across the northern portion of the airspace today. Winds will remain light across the area with typical diurnal shifts.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 442 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

With dry southwesterly flow in place today, high temperatures are expected to run around 10 degrees above average across most of the state today. Daytime RH values bottom out in the low to mid teens for many valley locations today, though lighter winds minimize fire weather threats. A weather system passing through the region overnight will result in increased cloud cover and potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, bringing a slight uptick in RH values across the state. Convective activity is expected to be largely tied to the higher terrain, with main threats from storms being gusty and erratic outflow winds to 50 mph. High pressure redeveloping Wednesday into late week will bring a return to dry and mild conditions, with our next storm system arriving late this weekend, yielding cooler temperatures and the possibility of more active weather on Sunday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.