textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool, dry, and stable conditions build into the region on Tuesday.

- A weak system looks to bring limited impacts to the region Wednesday/Thursday ushering in a brief period of low elevation rainfall and high elevation snowfall across primarily northern and central Utah.

DISCUSSION

Remnant low level moisture remains locked in place across the region, as is evident with the extent of low level cloud cover revealed in satellite imagery. That said, the rapid decrease in mid- and high-level cloud cover tells the better story of the amount of dry air filtering into the region on the back side of the recent storm system. Lower level cloud cover will decrease as night falls this evening, allowing for strong radiational cooling across the region, with many areas dropping into the 30s or even below freezing (focus here will be in the higher elevation valley areas). With the amount of moisture recieved over the weekend and saturation of the soils across the region, strong radiational cooling is likely to allow for development of fog. Areas of particular concern for fog development will be in west-central and southwest Utah, as well as the Cache Valley. This fog is not expected to persist into the afternoon hours on Tuesday as the drier airmass being introduced will help to mix drier air to the surface during the heating hours.

Dry and cool conditions will persist through the day on Tuesday, with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. High level cloud cover will accompany these cooler temperatures, making it feel a bit colder given the lack of solar insolation reaching the surface (especially for far northern and southern Utah).

The overall pattern remains relatively active, as another area of low pressure looks to progress through the region from Wednesday into Thursday. The most available moisture associated with this next area of low pressure will exist over central and northern Utah where valley rain and snowfall above 7,000-7,500ft will be expected. Overall moisture content will be lacking with this system as it is being sourced from the PacNW region instead of the subtropics like our past large systems have. With that in mind, storm total precipitation is expected to range from just a few hundredths to around a quarter inch in the valleys of northern and central Utah, with mountains seeing a fairly similar range. For snowfall, elevations above around 7,500-8,000ft are expected to see anywhere from around a half inch to upwards of 3-4 inches (particularly in the upper Cottonwoods and the north slopes of the Uinta Mountains). Big picture: this next system will bring very limited impacts to the region and is not expected to bring any concern for flooding.

Thereafter, dry conditions will filter back into the region late in the week and through the weekend as high pressure reestablishes across Utah and southwest Wyoming. A gradual warming trend can be expected from Thursday through at least Monday, with temperatures warming back to near, to slightly above, normal for this time of year by early next week.

AVIATION

KSLC...Northerly winds will continue at the SLC terminal through 03- 04Z before shifting to southerly. MVFR ceilings will occasionally develop over the terminal through 00-03Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Stratus will gradually clear most terminals between 02-06Z. Locally dense fog may develop in Wasatch Back valleys as well as the lowest elevations of the Cache Valley.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.