textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation will largely taper off by mid-morning before showers reinvigorate during the afternoon hours as a subtle wave passes through northern Utah. Periods of higher snowfall rates are possible with these showers, mainly between 2-6PM.

- A brief lull is expected with weather this weekend, though the pattern becomes favorable for another active stretch starting Monday of next week. Model guidance favors colder temperatures with this pattern.

DISCUSSION

A closed low can be seen over central CA early this morning, with a broad swath of persistent southwest flow ahead of the system across Utah and southwest Wyoming. Radar imagery shows scattered precipitation across much of the area within this southwest flow, and local webcams even show snow falling across many of the higher mountain passes.

While showers are expected to trend downwards in intensity this morning, we will likely see some reinvigoration as modest instability redevelops with (well, modest) daytime heating. Additionally, as this closed low shifts into NV this afternoon, a lobe of vorticity will eject across northern Utah, resulting in the best chances for higher precipitation rates across the northern mountains this afternoon/evening, with snow levels hovering around 7500ft. While synoptic support during the overnight hours is fairly meager with only weak waves passing through, moisture will still be in place across southeastern Utah, resulting in stratiform precipitation in that area. As the upper low is absorbed into the mean flow, its cold core will move overhead during the day on Friday, resulting in a bit more convective development, again primarily over southeastern Utah. Drier air will move in by Friday evening as the main trough axis passes overhead.

Ridging will build into the region this weekend, resulting in dry, stable conditions through at least Sunday. Temperatures will rebound a bit, reaching 10-15 degrees above normal.

However, the warm and dry weather will not last. There is high confidence in a trough developing over the western US in some form next week, with increasing moist, southwest flow developing as early as Monday. Model guidance has trended overall colder next week, with chances for >1" of valley snow by mid-week sitting at 30-60% along the Wasatch Front, 60% in the Cache Valley, 90% in Park City, and 60% in Cedar City, to name a few areas. The limiting factor here could be moisture availability; with moisture surging northeastward around the southern end of the Sierra, it's unclear how much of that moisture reaches Utah and southwest Wyoming.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Unsettled conditions will persist through the TAF period, especially for northern terminals as a system moves through. Snow levels generally around 6500-7500 ft will support low elevation rain, and these terminals will see around a 20-30% chance of MVFR conditions especially during precipitation. Higher elevation terminals with snow more dominant will more likely see periods of IFR conditions or lower. Winds will generally favor a typical diurnal pattern, though precipitation will locally result in periods of more variable and gusty conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for UTZ110>113.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for UTZ125.

WY...None.