textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will climb through Saturday, bringing an increased threat for heat-related illness for those who are sensitive to heat, without adequate cooling or hydration, or have chronic health conditions. Temperatures will become less warm Sunday with the passage of a mostly dry front.

- Breezy southerly winds will combine with very dry conditions to produce isolated patches of critical fire weather conditions Thursday into Friday. Winds will increase further over central and southern Utah by Saturday, bringing widespread critical fire weather conditions through early next week.

DISCUSSION

A broad area of high pressure sits off the Pacific coast this evening, with Utah and southwest Wyoming under a dry and mild west to northwest flow out ahead of it. High temperatures today averaged about 10F above seasonal normals. Values will be similar across central and southern Utah for Thursday, with some very slight cooling over northern portions of the area with the passage of a weak and dry cold front Thursday morning. Winds are expected to increase enough ahead of the boundary over southern Utah to produce isolated patches of critical fire weather conditions.

As the ridge builds Friday into Saturday, temperatures will steadily warm, topping out at values near 15F above seasonal normals Saturday afternoon. Those who are sensitive to heat should make preparations for these temperatures more typical of mid to late July. With a Pacific Northwest trough moving onshore, winds will become breezy across much of the area, but particularly over central and southern Utah. There is a high chance of more widespread critical fire weather conditions at this time.

There is good agreement that the trough will remain primarily north of the area, but should move close enough to bring a mostly dry cold front into northern portions of the area, bringing highs back to near seasonal normals for Sunday afternoon. Gusty winds will persist, particularly for those areas of central and southern Utah that will remain ahead of the boundary, keeping the fire danger high. Temperatures will quickly rebound for the start of the work week, with another Pacific Northwest trough potentially moving onshore to allow winds to increase once again. Most guidance shows this system moving little through the middle of next week, which would keep the hot, dry, and breezy conditions over Utah and southwest Wyoming for an extended period of time.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

No impactful weather expected across area terminals with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will largely follow a diurnally normal direction pattern, with modest gusts Thursday afternoon around 20-30 kts, primarily for higher elevation and more exposed terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Very dry conditions will continue over much of Utah through early next week, with relative humidities critically low for most locations with poor overnight recovery. Winds will pick up a bit Thursday, enough to produce isolated patches of critical fire weather conditions. However, as guidance has trended downward with expected gusts, Fire Weather Watch from yesterday was cancelled earlier today. Stronger winds will develop over the weekend ahead of the passage of a mostly dry cold front over northern Utah on Sunday. The gusty winds and low relative humidity values are likely to combine to produce more widespread critical fire weather conditions. There is a high chance that the increased fire danger will continue through the early part of next week, with a second Pacific Northwest storm system, this time slow moving, keeping southwest winds elevated across the state.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.