textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 154 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across Utah and southwest Wyoming today. Storms will be capable of producing isolated flash flooding across central and southern Utah and gusty outflow winds across northern Utah through this evening.

- Monsoonal moisture continues to overspread the region through the week, with chances for locally heavy rainfall becoming widespread by midweek with an elevated flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION, Issued 154 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Heat subsides across the region today as the ridge axis remains well east of our region and monsoonal moisture continues to spread northward along the western periphery of the high. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to build along the high terrain of Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon, spreading northwestward through the evening. Deep monsoonal moisture with PWATs in excess of an inch are currently in place across western portions of central and southern Utah, which will support a threat for locally heavy rainfall across the area through this evening. Isolated areas of 1"+ per hour rainfall rates are possible given these environmental conditions, especially those areas that experience back- building and training storms. Otherwise, slightly drier surface conditions across northwest Utah will support a threat for gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 50 mph for storms moving through this area.

Monsoonal moisture becomes more widespread across the entire region on Wednesday; concurrently, steering flow will begin to decrease aloft. As such, daily chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the remainder of the week, with a gradually increasing risk for flash flooding, most notably across southern Utah. WPC has placed most of the region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding starting Wednesday, with areas of Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) emerging Thursday and Friday. Main areas of concern continue to be recent burn scars (especially the Cottonwood Fire), normally dry washes, steep terrain, and slot canyons. Those with outdoor plans this week should monitor the weather and consider alternate plans.

AVIATION

KSLC...A brief chance of showers/thunderstorms and associated outflow possible early evening. Thereafter, confidence dips as decaying convection around the region will likely result in competing outflows. General model consensus notes S outflow becoming more likely around 03Z, with a 60% chance of a W outflow pushing in ~07Z. Wind eventually settle out S prior to sunrise before an early day shift back NW ~15-17Z. There is around a 10-20% chance of convection at the terminal Wednesday afternoon, and once again potential for some outflow related wind variability.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions expected to prevail at area terminals, though brief periods of reduced CIGS/VIS expected where any showers or thunderstorms linger through the evening. As convection continues to decay, gusty erratic outflows will result in periods of variability to terminals winds, with terminals ultimately expected to settle out to a diurnally normal direction late evening into the overnight. For Wednesday afternoon, a similar convective pattern is expected with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, and a corresponding potential for gusty erratic outflow winds.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 154 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Monsoonal moisture continues to spread northward today, with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the state this afternoon. Convective initiation will favor the high terrain early this afternoon, with southeasterly flow pushing any storms that develop north to northwest through the evening. As such, greatest coverage is expected across the western half of the state especially across central and southern Utah. Deep moisture in place across central and southern Utah will support a risk for locally heavy rainfall that will be capable of producing wetting rains and isolated flash flooding mainly for recent burn scars, normally dry washes, and steep terrain. Across northern Utah where drier air is still in place at the surface, storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds to 50 mph. Moisture continues to increase across the state through the remainder of the week, with daily chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms continuing at least through this weekend.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.