textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong area of high pressure will bring dry and stable conditions through the next 7 to 10 days.

DISCUSSION...Good news

bad news.

We'll start with the good news. A stout upper level ridge and rex block will set up over the next 7 to 10 days across the West. The good news is that several weak shortwave troughs will either flatten the ridge and push weak cold fronts through the region or shortwave troughs will try to undercut the ridge and keep strong valley inversion from developing. Correspondingly, Utah DEQ has several monitored north basins including the Salt Lake Valley remaining at yellow/moderate air quality through Monday.

Now the bad news...With a strong ridge in place, even with these shortwave troughs helping to prevent strong inversions from developing, an analysis of various ensemble systems shows a less than 5% chance of measurable precipitation across nearly the entire state of Utah through next Saturday. Somewhere around 50% of ensemble members break down the rex block and bring in at least 0.01" of precipitation across northern Utah Sunday into Monday (Feb 8-9), with around 25% showing measurable precipitation across southern Utah.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will prevail in most areas, with light, terrain-driven winds. While the fog threat has decreased, there is still a chance overnight at KLGU (30% chance between 11-17z) and in the early morning at KHCR (10% chance between 12-16z).

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SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.