textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will be in place through the weekend, with dry conditions and temperatures around 10-20F warmer than normal.

- Unsettled weather looks to make a return to northern Utah by the middle of next week, though specific details remain uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION

Morning water vapor loop shows strong ridging centered along the Pacific coast with stronger jet flow positioned just to the northeast of the local forecast region. A bit of mid/upper level moisture is bringing associated cloud cover with that jet flow, but otherwise the influence of the strong ridge is maintaining dry and mild conditions with overnight temps generally running about 10-15 degrees above normal.

Over the next several days the robust ridge will gradually shift inland. As a result the general weather pattern changes very minimally, with dry conditions and well above normal temperatures maintained. The only feature of note (if you can call it that) is a weak and subtle shortwave that looks to slip through in the Sunday/Monday time frame. What little moisture is associated with this feature appears to be confined to the mid and upper levels, so anticipate little more than an increase to cloud cover in turn.

Forecast models continue to open the door for some potential return to more of an active pattern for the northern third of the forecast region late Tuesday onward, though uncertainty in details is still noted. The majority of ensemble members continue to support a more active northern stream beating down the ridge in some capacity, but the southern extent of any moisture plume remains a question, as does just how much moisture makes it in. Northern mountain QPF amounts near/north of I-80 continue to show a good deal of spread, with 25th percentile amounts of around 0.05" to 0.15", and 75th percentile amounts closer to the 0.60" to 1.00" range. More modest amounts are noted at nearby adjacent lower elevation terrain. Given likely little in the way of more appreciably cold air, SLRs for high northern terrain are pretty meager too with median values in the upper Cottonwoods for example sitting around 7:1. Also similar to previous forecasts, the southern extent shows a bit more certainty with 25th percentile amounts only carrying any measurable precipitation down to around the Salt Lake area mountains, and 75th percentile amounts only pushing measurable amounts maybe as far south as the high terrain between roughly Nephi to Price. So, all that to say the dry streak is likely to continue for the southern half of Utah.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will persist through the period for the entire airspace. Dry conditions with mostly clear skies will continue with light diurnally driven winds.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.