textproduct: Salt Lake City

SYNOPSIS

A weak weather system will bring a re-enforcing shot of cool air to the region today. Seasonal temperatures will follow for the weekend, before high pressure brings a warming trend through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

- A weak weather system will bring a re-enforcing shot of cool air along with a few showers to northern Utah today.

- A cool northwest flow will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal temperatures across the forecast area through the upcoming weekend.

- High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions through much of next week.

- Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the potential for a storm system to impact the region late next week.

A predominantly zonal flow temporarily extends across the region early this morning, but will transition to a general northwesterly flow over the next 24 hours as mid level ridging amplifies along the Pacific Coast. Within this flow a weak shortwave is noted quickly translating through far northern CA/southern OR, with a broken band of showers ahead of this feature stretching across northern NV. This feature will weaken is it continues east today, which will result in the attendant broken band of precip slowly dissipating with time. As such, the chance for showers will remain confined to northern Utah, primarily north of I-80. The Bear River range will likely pick up a couple inches of snow, with minimal if any precip accumulation across the remainder of northern Utah.

As the upstream ridge amplifies, northwest flow will allow cool air to be re-enforced across northern Utah, resulting in near normal temperatures to persist through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures across southern Utah will run a few degrees above normal today, before this cool air knocks a couple degrees of daytime temps Saturday.

The upstream ridge is forecast to slowly build inland late in the weekend, and encompass much of the Great Basin region through the first half of next week. This will result in a gradual warming trend through Tuesday, with temperatures remaining mild through at least Thursday.

Late next week will bring the next chance for precipitation across the forecast area, however considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the large scale pattern, and whether an upper trough forecast to reside off the Pacific Coast later in the week moves inland or remains offshore. The trend over the past couple of days has been slower with the breakdown of the upper ridge, and within 00Z EPS/GEFS ensemble suite roughly 60% of solutions do bring this trough inland, but the majority of those solutions now hold off until Friday at the earliest. The remaining 40% of solutions within the EPS/GEFS space are clustered around solutions keeping this trough offshore through much of next weekend.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

There is a low, 10-20% chance, for a rain shower for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah from 15- 21Z. Clouds will diminish as showers taper off. Winds will prevail from the northwest, with gusts around 25 knots for southwest Wyoming. Mostly clear conditions with light winds will continue for southern Utah.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.