textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible each afternoon and evening through Wednesday across southern and eastern Utah.

- Stronger winds will bring an increasing threat of critical fire weather conditions Thursday through the weekend across southern and eastern Utah, spreading into western Utah by Saturday.

- The threat of heat-related illness will increase Wednesday through at least Saturday across most Utah valleys, especially for those who are sensitive to the heat, those without adequate cooling or hydration, and those with chronic health conditions.

DISCUSSION

Weak, high-based showers will continue to diminish across portions of eastern Utah this evening. While the northern stream remains quite active...the majority of systems will remain to the north of Utah through the next week. This will mean periodic increases in south to southwesterly winds, particularly across southern Utah and increasingly low humidities with poor overnight recoveries across the state. This pattern will also bring an increasing threat of heat-related illness Wednesday through at least Saturday for many Utah valleys as temperatures surge to around 5 to as much as 15 degrees above normal for early June.

A shortwave trough will shift north of the area later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a dry cold front into northern Utah and increasing winds across much of the state south of the front. For now, the probability of wind advisory criteria (wind gusts 45 mph + for the valleys for 3 hours or more) is less than 10%...but wind gusts in the 25 mph to perhaps 30 mph will occur given deep mixing. Similarly, winds will remain elevated Friday as another trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest and a surface low forms in response across the Salt Flats.

By Saturday...winds will increase even further, with widespread gusts to 35 mph to perhaps 40 mph in windier locations by afternoon. A portion of the ensemble members continue these elevated winds into Sunday...but there is more uncertainty in this portion of the forecast.

Still looking at a less 5% chance of measurable precipitation through at least next weekend across the region with the exception of the western Uinta Mountains.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Weather expected to be minimally impactful across the region through the TAF period. Outside of typically exposed/gusty conditions (like EVW), winds will tend to remain less than 15 kts with directions following a diurnally typical pattern. Skies will remain clear to mostly clear with VFR conditions prevailing.

FIRE WEATHER

Very dry westerly flow will bring a warming and drying trend through midweek, with gusty southwest winds up to 25 mph each afternoon. A weak weather system brushing by the region to our north on Thursday will bring widespread wind gusts 25-35 mph across central and southern Utah, which will yield a period of critical fire weather during the afternoon and evening hours. Southwest flow will remain elevated Friday...with another round of critical fire weather conditions expected. Poor overnight recoveries will be the rule through this period as well.

A second, stronger system digging into the Great Basin this weekend will result in widespread wind gusts in excess of 35 mph, once again bringing widespread critical fire weather conditions where fuels are critically dry.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.