textproduct: Salt Lake City

UPDATE

Afternoon convection continues to develop across southern Utah early this afternoon. Thunderstorm motions have been relatively slow, allowing for some gauges to report rates around 0.10" in 10 minutes, especially near the France Canyon Burn Scar. CAMS indicate convection will continue to develop across the southern third of the state through the afternoon, diminishing between 03-06Z. Gusty microburst winds are most likely along the northern periphery of the convection, with a 5% chance of wind gusts in excess of 55 mph.

Otherwise, hot, dry and windy conditions will develop across the region Monday into Tuesday. Fire Weather Watches have been issued for the central and southern mountains as well as the eastern valleys Tuesday into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms will bring the threat of gusty, microburst winds in excess of 40 mph and localized flash flooding to southern Utah through this evening.

- Locally elevated fire weather conditions will impact the eastern valleys Monday, with critical fire weather conditions impacting the eastern valleys and central and southern mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a moderate probability conditions will continue through at least Friday for much of Utah where fuels are critical or near-critical.

- There is a greater than 50 percent chance HeatRisk will reject the major category across the lower deserts of southern Utah including Zion National Park and St George Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1015 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Currently, a midlevel shortwave trough is progressing southeast across the MT/ID border with another weaker shortwave stalled over the CA coastline providing persistent SW'erly flow across southern UT. With time, these two waves will phase together into tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist in some capacity across southern UT into central UT keeping the airmass moist and reinforcing a thermal boundary further north. This moist and unstable airmass will favor thunderstorm development across central and southern UT tomorrow afternoon as midlevel ascent increases with the troughs phasing together as they move southeast. With CAPE on the order of 500-750J/kg amidst steep 0-3km LR's and DCAPE in excess of 1200J/kg, strong to severe gusts and potentially small hail cannot be ruled out with any storm that forms. Additionally, PWATs ranging from 0.6-0.9" may yield a localized flash flood threat for any slow-moving or terrain enhanced storms. High LCL's on the order of 2500m+ yield some uncertainty with how much precip will make it to the ground, though storm coverage may compensate and moisten the PBL potentially resulting in training storms yielding a heightened flash flooding threat.

Overnight into Monday morning, a dry front will traverse the state as midlevel ridging begins to nudge into the area. Some residual moisture may result in some terrain driven thunderstorms across central and southern UT Monday afternoon, though these will be quite transient and isolated at best.

Throughout the remainder of the period, an upper jet will progress south from Canada into the central plains, establishing a persistent troughing pattern across the central and eastern U.S.. This will keep much of the west underneath a building ridge, amplifying across each passing day. Hot and dry conditions are forecast to develop once again through the long term, potentially persisting into Saturday and beyond. HeatRisk will see an increase as this occurs, with the highest confidence of heat related issues developing Tuesday and Wednesday as HeatRisk enters the moderate range across most valleys.

Additionally, as ridging builds in and tightens the pressure gradient Tuesday and Wednesday, midlevel northwesterly winds are forecast to see an enhancement. Given preceding dry conditions, these winds will mix to the surface with enhanced dry northwest winds overspreading much of UT Tuesday through Wednesday. As such, critical fire weather conditions are expected to return to the state Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons due to gusty surface winds.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions and clear skies prevail across the northern area through the valid TAF period while central and southern Utah remain under cloud cover with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Breezy west to northwest winds are expected in northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming, with the remainder of the area largely influenced by diurnally driven flows. Showers and thunderstorms will bring potential for gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 40kts, as well as temporary reductions to VIS in locally heavy rainfall.

FIRE WEATHER

Convection across southern Utah has trended wetter, with areas under slow moving thunderstorms increasingly likely to see wetting rains. A drier pattern will build into the region Monday, with locally elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across the eastern valleys Monday afternoon and evening. Winds will increase further Tuesday, with critical fire weather conditions expected across the eastern valleys as well as the central and southern mountains. Winds will increase a bit more on Wednesday...which may spread critical fire weather conditions into the Grand Staircase. While winds will decrease Thursday a bit, eastern valleys, and the central and southern mountains will likely remain in critical fire weather conditions through Friday. Overnight recoveries in these areas will become quite poor Tuesday night through at least Thursday night.

As a system approaches the Pacific Coast Thursday into Friday, winds will also increase across the western valleys, bringing a threat of critical fire weather conditions to these locations as well.

Bottom line, the threat of wetting rains will end today...followed by an extended hot, dry, and gusty period for most of the next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for UTZ482-488-489-493-496.

WY...None.