textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 552 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of the main storm that arrives on Saturday.

- Precipitation becomes more widespread overnight with snow levels dropping to ~6500 feet behind a cold front that arrives tomorrow morning bringing a line of heavier precipitation. Mountain snow will be at advisory levels across the southern mountains with lower totals across central and northern Utah.

- Two colder storms arrive next week with the potential for some valley snowfall.

DISCUSSION

An area of low pressure is moving through southern Arizona and will start to phase into the incoming trough that is moving through the PNW. Moisture from this low pressure system will advect into Utah to produce some low top convection this afternoon. Areas across southern and southwestern Utah will have some increased instability this afternoon along with favorable shear to sustain some weak thunderstorms. Rain rates with these will be on the order of 0.25-0.5" per hour, but they will be moving from south to north fairly quickly so residence time will be short-lived making the threat for flash flooding only a concern for areas that experience any training thunderstorms.

This activity becomes more widespread overnight as the negatively tilted trough approaches. This trough will bring a cold front through the area Saturday morning. Ahead of this front snow levels will be between 8500-9000 feet, but falling to 6000-7000 feet behind the cold front. This cold front will stretch the entire length of the I-15 corridor from southwestern Utah up through the Idaho border between 5-8 am. This front will move through quickly with drier air moving in behind it across southwestern Utah. Central and northern Utah will see a bit more post-frontal moisture as a period of northwest flow helps to keep some terrain enhanced snow ongoing across the central and northern mountains. Additionally, given relatively warm waters across the Great Salt Lake there will be a chance for some lake enhanced snow to the south and east of the lake. Most of this activity will wrap up by late Saturday afternoon/evening.

QPF totals (25th-75th percentile) will range from 0.25-0.75" across valley locations with mountains in the 0.50-1.00" range. Relatively higher totals are expected across the southern mountains (0.75-1.50") where winter weather advisories have been issued for snow totals of 5-10" above 9000 feet. Elsewhere snow totals will generally range from 4-8". Areas that do well in northwest flow could receive more than 12", such as the upper Cottonwoods. If any lake effect snow develops Saturday afternoon then the upper Cottonwoods could get closer to the 90th percentile which would be 15-18".

Some of the coldest temperatures of the season will settle into the area Saturday night into Sunday with most locations approaching or dipping below freezing, aside from lower Washington county. A transient ridge will build into the area for Sunday and Monday, but the short-lived nature will prevent inversion conditions from becoming well established however temperatures will warm back up ~5 degrees above normal.

The next storm will arrive on Tuesday with colder air associated with it. Median 700 mb temperatures are -8C which could be cold enough to bring snow down to valley floors. The latest guidance on this storm exits it a bit more quickly with dry conditions filtering in by Wednesday with some lingering snow across the terrain through Wednesday morning. Another storm arrives by Thursday which will have similarly cold air and even better chances for seeing valley snow totals, but ~50% of the guidance brings the storm further south with the best totals across southern Utah while the other 50% track it from south to north which would bring similar totals areawide.

AVIATION

KSLC...Southerly winds and gusts are expected to persist until a cold frontal passage around 14-16Z Saturday. Some scattered rain showers will develop through Friday afternoon, with rain becoming more widespread Friday evening on through the overnight. Showers then gradually taper off through the day Saturday. VFR conditions will largely prevail, though periods of heavier rain will result in around a 30-50% chance of occasional MVFR CIGS/VIS.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A broad system will push through the region into Saturday. Winds at most area terminals will favor a southerly direction with modest gusts, though more sheltered terminals may become light and variable overnight. A quick moving cold front will then push through terminals near sunrise Saturday morning. Scattered rain showers will develop through the day Friday, and rain will become more widespread overnight into Saturday ahead of the cold front. VFR conditions will generally prevail, though around a 20-50% chance of MVFR CIGS/VIS will be possible at times of heavier rain. At terminals such as EVW where a mix of snow and rain is likely, MVFR conditions are more likely to prevail, with around a 20-30% chance of IFR, especially if snow becomes more dominant.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Saturday for UTZ125.

WY...None.