textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds will develop across the northern Wasatch Mountains, western Uinta Mountains and Uinta County, WY Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Winds will decrease but remain gusty in these areas Friday afternoon and evening.

- A cold front will cross the area Saturday. Ahead of this front, strong winds will develop across the northern mountains and Uinta County, WY. Strong post-frontal winds will occur in the western Uinta Basin and Castle Country. Isolated thunderstorms will also occur near the cold front.

- Strong ridging will build into the region early next week, with near record to record temperatures as early as next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Early afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates a broad ridge remains in place off the southern California coast. Meanwhile, an active northern jet continues to stream into the Pacific Northwest. An upper level low is currently shifting eastward in the Gulf of Alaska.

This jet will be the main story for the short term forecast period, as ~50kt 700mb winds shift south into northern Utah Thursday. This will bring strong winds to the northern Wasatch Mountains and western Uinta Mountains, where there is a 60% chance wind gusts will exceed 60 mph and a 20% chance wind gusts will exceed 75 mph, especially on exposed ridgelines across the high Uintas and near the Utah/Idaho border (including Logan Summit).

While winds are expected to be strong in Uinta County, WY, there is less than 20 percent chance winds will exceed 58 mph. Similarly, with a less than ideal flow pattern for strong winds in the western Uinta Basin, there is an approximately 35% chance wind gusts will exceed 45 mph for 3 hours.

Given these probabilities, issued a wind advisory for the northern Wasatch Mountains and western Uinta Mountains Thursday afternoon and evening...but did not include the western Uinta Basin. Uinta County is unlikely to meet high wind warning criteria, so likewise, did not issue any wind headlines in this location either.

700mb flow decreases ahead of the next shortwave trough embedded in the northern stream...with a high probability (>70%) wind gusts will fall below headline criteria in all locations.

The next shortwave trough will strengthen and dig into the northern Intermountain Region Saturday, pushing a cold front through northern Utah Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Strong westerly winds will develop once again across the northern Wasatch Mountains and western Uinta Mountains...with a greater than 70% chance winds will exceed 60 mph and a 30% chance winds will exceed 75 mph, especially on exposed ridgelines.

Further south and east, post-frontal, expect strong, gusty winds in both the western Uinta Basin (60% chance of 45 mph+) and Castle Country (40% chance of 45 mph+) Saturday afternoon and evening. Not even confidence of exceeding high wind warning criteria to issue any watches at this time, however.

Another impact from the Saturday front will be the threat of isolated thunderstorms and graupel, with light snow accumulations above about 8500 feet.

After Saturday's front...the upper ridge will shift east into the Interior West. Temperatures will near to exceed record levels as early as Tuesday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period under increasing middle and high level cloud cover. Light diurnally driven flows will gradually transition to a west to northwesterly wind during the overnight hours and will persist through Thursday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ110-112.

WY...None.