textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring dry, stable, and increasingly mild conditions through Wednesday. Developing inversions may limit warming in prone valleys and bring some decrease in visibility and air quality.

- An unsettled pattern returns Wednesday night onward into at least early next, bringing periods of mountain snow and low elevation rain.

DISCUSSION

High pressure is centered over the Great Basin this morning, putting Utah and southwest Wyoming under a dry northwest flow. This is bringing clear skies and light winds with satellite imagery indicating patchy fog/stratus in the vicinity of Bear Lake. This will tend to diminish later this morning. Maxes will be on the mild side, where many locations will see highs averaging 10F above seasonal normals. Warming will be curb a bit in northern Utah valleys prone to inversions, averaging more like 5F above normal.

The ridge axis is expected to move overhead as a closed low well off the southern California coast makes its way to the northeast. This will be the warmest day of the week, with most locations seeing high temperatures up to 15F above normal for this time of year, with northern Utah valleys seeing highs up to 10F above climo. Accumulation of haze in those valleys will bring some decrease in visibility and air quality.

With the progression of the closed low, the ridge is expected to move east of the area Wednesday night, with southwest flow developing over Utah and southwest Wyoming on the back side of it. This will draw the deep tropical moisture associated with the low into the area from southwest to northeast. Thus, the area will see the return of fairly widespread valley rain and mountain snow (snow levels in the 8,500 to 9,500 range) by Thursday. Despite the ample moisture, guidance indicates the low will be opening up and weakening as it moves across the region through early Friday, so associated dynamics are not particularly impressive. Thus, associated snow totals will be on the light side. For example, the Cottonwoods are most favored, and have a greater than 50 percent chance of seeing six inches or less.

Confidence is increasing in high pressure returning for Friday, with guidance tending to diverge thereafter. Because of this, confidence is high in a continued unsettled pattern for the the weekend into early next week, with low confidence on timing and track of any particular system as well as associated snow amounts. There is, however, relatively high confidence that any storms that impact the area will be mild in nature, keeping snow levels on the high side.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry and stable conditions with clear skies will continue with light diurnally driven winds.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.