textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A gradual warming trend will continue through early next week.

- High-based showers and thunderstorms will bring the threat of gusty, microburst winds to southern Utah Monday afternoon and evening.

- Unsettled conditions will begin later Thursday and continue into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

After one last morning of near freezing to freezing temperatures across much of the region, high pressure will continue to shift into the Great Basin today. A gradual warming trend will continue...with temperatures reaching around 10 degrees above normal by Monday.

A shortwave trough embedded in the southern jet, coincident with a jet max will shift across Arizona Monday. Mid and upper level moisture advection combined with modest lift across southern Utah will bring the threat of high-based showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. While instability is relatively unremarkable, around 200 J/kg or so of SBCAPE, inverted-v profiles will support a threat of dry microbursts.

This threat will shift east of the region by later Monday evening.

A relatively strong upper level trough will dig into the northern Rockies and High Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. This system has trended toward a more westward track, with the majority ensemble solution bringing a cold front into northern and central Utah Wednesday. This is a dry cold front...but will knock temperatures down 5 degrees or so Wednesday over Tuesday's highs.

The vast majority of the ensemble members have shifted from any attempt to phase the upper level low off the California coast with a northern stream trough Thursday into Friday. This has reduced the threat of precipitation across much of the region, though a portion of the ensemble members develop at least an area of showers along an axis of enhanced upper level diffluence across central Utah Thursday afternoon.

As the next upper level low shifts south into the Pacific Northwest, the bulk of the ensemble members eject the southern upper level low across the Desert Southwest Saturday into Sunday. This will be the best window for precipitation, with the heaviest precipitation across southern Utah.

With the lack of phasing with the northern stream, the threat of any lower snow levels has reduced as well...with the current best case scenario showing snow levels around 9000 feet across northern Utah Saturday, perhaps a little lower across southern Utah. Either way, this unsettled pattern is decidedly spring-like in nature, with little threat of substantial mountain snow accumulations, with only a 10 percent chance of 72 hour snow totals exceeding 2 inches across the upper Cottonwoods through Saturday evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Light,terrain-driven winds will prevail with VFR conditions and increasing high clouds overnight. High-based showers will begin to push into far southern Utah as early as 16z Monday. These showers will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds and isolated thunder/lightning at KCDC, KSGU, KBCE, and perhaps KU52 on the periphery during the afternoon.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.