textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1211 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Locally or marginally critical fire weather conditions will continue through the week for areas of central, eastern, and southern Utah.

- Isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will develop Thursday and Friday afternoons primarily across northern Utah/SW Wyoming. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary concern.

- Moisture increases early next week as a ridge sets up over the Four Corners region which could lead to diurnal convection across the area.

- HeatRisk will increase early next week particularly considering limited overnight temperature recoveries given increased cloud cover.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1211 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Across the western US, weakening mid-level cyclonic flow remains in place with a couple of embedded shortwave troughs still expected to move through Utah today and tomorrow. Subtle lift ahead of the first shortwave resulted in isolated showers developing this morning mainly along the northern portion of the UT-NV border. As daytime heating increases and that shortwave crosses the state, expect scattered high-based convection primarily across northern areas through the early evening. High- res guidance did not have a great handle on the showers this morning, and given lift associated with a vort max slowly moving across the state today, isolated showers could reach as far south as I-70. With inverted-V profiles and DCAPE reaching 1500 J/kg across the West Desert, any showers will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds up to 40-50 mph. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as a weaker shortwave passes through the area within a drying air mass.

As the main longwave trough continues to weaken, mid- level flow will become more anticyclonic with high pressure building over the Four Corners this weekend. Moisture will start to push northwards from Arizona as early as Sunday afternoon, though there is still plenty of uncertainty with the timing and magnitude of this moisture surge. The best chances for increased mid-level moisture are on Monday and Tuesday; currently, these two days look to be more of a gusty outflow wind and lightning threat rather than a flash flood threat, but if moisture filters into the low levels too, this could still change.

Temperatures will continue to increase into next week, and despite temperatures "only" increasing to 5 degrees above normal, increased cloud cover with that moisture push will result in limited overnight temperature recovery and lows near 70F along the Wasatch Front (mid- to upper-70s in St. George). Thus, HeatRisk will increase into the Moderate/Orange category across a broad portion of the state.

AVIATION, Issued 1211 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

KSLC...Northerly winds should become dominant at the terminal by 19z, though periods of more westerly flow may persist until 20z. There is around a 30% chance high based convection develops after 20z nearby and produces gusty outflow winds, which would maintain potential for prolonged variable winds and introduce a period of cigs above 6kft. Otherwise mid and upper level VFR cloud cover persists. The return to diurnal southeast winds may be delayed until 04-05z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Typical diurnal winds will largely prevail at area TAF sites. For northern terminals, there is around a 30% chance high based convection results in gusty and erratic outflow winds this afternoon Areawide, mid to upper level VFR cloud cover expected to persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across southern Utah east of I-15 and across much of eastern Utah today and Friday afternoon. Minimum RH will reach 8-15% across these areas, with southwesterly wind gusts of 20-25 mph. Only isolated areas could see gusts of 30-35 mph, particularly along ridgelines. Winds will be even lower tomorrow overall as the pattern begins to shift more towards high pressure. Across northern Utah, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce dry lightning and gusty outflow winds both Thursday and Friday afternoons.

The air mass will become increasingly warmer and drier as this high pressure builds, with worsening overnight RH recovery through at least Saturday night. Despite very dry conditions, winds will remain relatively light, with only pockets of critical fire weather conditions.

Increasing mid-level moisture arriving likely Monday, but as early as Sunday afternoon, may result in an isolated dry lightning threat coupled with gusty outflow winds once again...with the highest chances on Monday and Tuesday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.