textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 948 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Dry conditions are expected to persist with gradually warming temperatures pushing back 5-10 degrees above normal by Thursday.

- There is potential for a system to impact portions of the area by the upcoming weekend, but confidence is low at this time.

DISCUSSION, Issued 948 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The lingering remnant moisture stream from the departing weekend system is yielding some modest cloud cover across the southeastern half of the forecast region, but conditions remain dry. Across southern Utah the lack of precipitation and cloud cover resulted in warmer afternoon temperatures than Sunday, while much of the remainder of the area has seen cooler temperatures courtesy of a cold frontal passage. While a calmer and clearer night will result in cooler temperatures tonight into Tuesday morning, weather is expected to remain non-impactful.

Throughout much of the upcoming week the combination of a relatively low amplitude northern stream and a ridge extending across the Desert Southwest will maintain zonal flow atop the local forecast region. This will help bring about a gradual day to day warming trend, with near normal temperatures Tuesday increasing to about 5F to 10F above normal by around Thursday. Slight moisture intrusions around the periphery of the ridge will bring about periods of some cloud cover, but there is little in the way to suggest appreciable precipitation chances through at least Friday. Even then, there is not enough consensus in models to include much more than some isolated shower and thunderstorm chances across portions of southern Utah during the afternoon.

The upcoming weekend still appears to be the most likely window for passage of the next potential system, but confidence is still quite low at this point. Generally, models suggest any such system would be more of a northern stream trough, which brings questions on how much moisture would be available. Even looking at the broader ensemble range for a possible northern Utah cold frontal passage, there is a spread of 700 mb temperatures between the 25th-75th percentile of about 10C, corresponding to an NBM forecast 25th-75th percentile Sunday high temperature range at KSLC of 66F to 84F. This spread decreases at areas further south in Utah where chances start to increase in a grazing type system bringing about a more muted cooldown. Looking at broader scenarios, around 75% of ensemble members at least carry some sort of system/front, with only 25% bringing continued dry and mild conditions. Of those bringing a system, members are fairly split on the strength of the front and degree/extent of a cooldown, and if/how much precipitation will come from it.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period. Winds will be generally light and variable through 13Z, then shift to a northerly direction by around 15Z. Can't rule out a period of light NE winds this evening, persisting beyond the typical southerly switch, before ultimately becoming predominately south by around 06Z this evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across all regional terminals through the TAF period. Generally light, diurnally - driven winds are expected at all terminals with mainly clear skies prevailing across the airspace, before a thin veil of cirrus begins to overspread the state from south to north by late this afternoon and evening.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 251 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Dry conditions are expected to persist over the next several days with gradually warming temperatures back to around 5-15 degrees above normal by Thursday. Isolated pockets of near-critical fire weather conditions due to the combination of low relative humidity and gusty westerly winds will be largely confined to northeast Utah and the Uinta Basin through Thursday. Some moisture may return to Utah by Friday, yielding a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, particularly across southern Utah. Models generally favor increasing southwesterly winds and associated gusts Friday and especially Saturday ahead of the next potential system, though confidence in the specific details of this system are low at this point, including the duration, location and intensity of any monsoonal moisture along/ahead of the potential cold front. For now, the most likely time range for any associated frontal passage is late Saturday into Sunday, but given uncertainty in the evolution of this potential system, trends through the upcoming week will likely better address timing/strength.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.