textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms return to portions of southern Utah late Sunday morning through the afternoon.

- More widespread precipitation is expected roughly Tuesday on into the weekend. Total water amounts remain around 0.50-1.50", with locally higher amounts to around 2.00-2.50" or so.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Morning water vapor analysis shows ridging extending through the Great Basin while a broad cutoff low swirls near the Baja Peninsula. With dry and stable conditions, overnight lows dipped near to slightly below freezing in some locations, but temperatures are quickly rebounding. Forecast afternoon highs are expected to push to near seasonable levels in most locations, with the exception being portions of the San Rafael Swell and Castle Country where highs will run around 5-10 degrees below normal.

The broad cutoff low will gradually shift east to northeastward into the Desert Southwest, before ejecting into the northern stream Sunday into Monday. For Saturday, conditions more or less look like a repeat of Friday but with temperatures nudging upwards slightly. Moisture associated with the low will start to push through portions of southern Utah Sunday morning into the afternoon, bringing enhanced cloud cover as well as isolated chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. After an overnight lull, similar conditions are then expected Monday.

A larger northern stream trough will be digging southward from the PacNW on Tuesday. Models generally support this feature gradually cutting off from California into the Great Basin through the middle of the week, eventually translating eastward through the Intermountain West on into the weekend. Ensembles mean PWAT anomalies generally push into the 150-200% of normal range (AI ECM locally up to 250% across the Four Corners region). That said, there are some differences in exact timing, likely owing to the cutoff nature of the trough. Overall though, the general pattern would contain enhanced upper and midlevel support, which in combination with ample moisture would result in more widespread precipitation chances across the area. Current forecast water amounts have not changed markedly, with general storm total amounts (Tuesday through Friday) of around 0.50" to 1.50". Locally higher amounts of roughly 2.00" to 2.50" are noted in some orographically favored high terrain in a south to southwest flow regime.

With the cutoff nature of the low, there is not much of a cold air tap, with 700 mb temps only falling to around 0C to -3C later Thursday into the weekend as the trough axis works in. Snow levels will remain above 10000 ft until then, only gradually falling to around 8500-9500 ft as the modestly cooler air moves in. Models in turn do support accumulating snow on the order of 4-12" or so in some of that higher terrain.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will continue at the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period with clear skies. Prevailing northwest winds but vary at times will continue at the terminal before switching to diurnally-driven Light southeasterly winds around 03Z this evening. Northwesterly flow will return around 20Z tomorrow.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. A majority of terminals will continue to see light, terrain driven flows throughout the day, however, areas around KSGU through KCDC will see breezy northerly winds throughout the day. Peak winds in this area will gust upwards of 25-30 kts.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1206 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A strengthening ridge of high pressure is noted over the area, helping to maintain dry conditions. Temperatures are generally running near to a little below normal across much of the area, though will nudge upwards for Saturday. A grazing system will bring isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to southern Utah Sunday and Monday, with increased cloud cover expected elsewhere. By Tuesday a larger scale trough is expected to dig into the Great Basin, gradually cutting off and then shifting eastward through the week. In combination with ample moisture, this system will bring unsettled conditions and more widespread precipitation to Utah. Forecast water amounts Tuesday on through Friday are roughly 0.50" to 1.50", with locally up to 2.00" to 2.50" in some of the favored high terrain. Snow will remain above 10000 feet through Thursday. Slightly cooler air moving in late Thursday on into Friday will allow snow levels to drop to roughly 8500-9500 feet, allowing some accumulating snow at higher elevations.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.