textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 201 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon through Tuesday.

- Widespread precipitation returns late Wednesday across southern Utah, with coverage expanding northward through Friday. Many areas will see precipitation accumulations between 0.5-1.5" through this period, with locally up to 2.0-2.5".

- The heavy rain will bring a threat of flash flooding to southern and central Utah, and there is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across southern Utah Wednesday and Thursday.

- There is a potential for a few strong thunderstorms producing gusty winds and hail across southern Utah on Wednesday and both southern and northern Utah on Thursday.

- The late week storm will also bring modest snowfall to the high terrain across northern Utah on Friday, with 3-6" possible mainly above 9000 feet, with locally higher amounts.

DISCUSSION, Issued 201 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Remnants of a weakening storm system continues to lift across Arizona into the Four Corners area today. With lingering moisture in place, weak forcing and very modest instability should be enough to maintain some generally weak showers through the rest of the day across mainly the higher terrain of southern and central Utah (with possibly a couple of thunderstorms in southwest Utah).

Tomorrow into Wednesday, expect southwesterly flow to progressively increase over Utah as a closed low slowly slides down the California coast. This southwesterly flow will maintain temperatures generally above climatological normals across the area. As instability increases tomorrow along with some developing upper diffluence, expect a slight increase in shower coverage and thunderstorm potential, focused primarily over the spine of Utah and western Utah.

By Wednesday afternoon, a jet nosing into southern Utah will be accompanied by a plume of moisture with origins near what is currently Tropical Storm Trudy. The bulk of this moisture looks to cross the southeastern portions of the forecast area. Additionally, the latest deterministic models are now a bit faster with the onset of precipitation on Wednesday compared to other recent runs. As such, expect precipitation to increase from the south on Wednesday, then become more widespread across the forecast area on Thursday as the storm system moves inland. Locally moderate to heavy precipitation can be expected, with a threat of flash flooding especially in prone areas of southern and central Utah. There is currently a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for southern Utah Wednesday and Thursday. The NBM indicates a broad area of 1 to 2.5 inches of QPF extending from far southwest Utah through southeast and east-central Utah. Elsewhere, the NBM has up to 1 inch except around 1.5 inches in the Uintas. In addition to the heavy rain, thunderstorms could trend on the stronger side across southern Utah on Wednesday and both southern and northern Utah on Thursday owing to increased instability, shear, and large-scale forcing.

On Friday, the heavier precipitation will become more confined to northern Utah. With cooler air arriving late Thursday night into Friday, snow levels will lower, bringing accumulating snow to the mountains. Latest deterministic GFS and EC bring H7 temperatures down to -3 to -4C over northern Utah. Snow levels could potentially briefly reach 6.5kft, though most accumulations will likely remain above 8kft. Around 3-6 inches with locally up to 9 inches in the upper Cottonwoods and high Uintas are currently forecast.

Beyond Friday, there continues to be some model spread with the large-scale pattern. In general, however, there looks to be a drying and warming trend over Utah continues through early next week.

AVIATION

KSLC...Dry conditions will persist through the overnight hours. Winds will shift from light northerly to light southerly between 02- 03Z. Ceilings near 7000 feet will develop Tuesday afternoon with a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1200 Tuesday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds will remain mainly dirunally driven through Tuesday morning at all terminals. Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue across central and southern Utah, with occasionally lower ceilings through 04-06Z. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop across much of the area again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.