textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions will persist through midweek with a steady warming trend.

- Moisture and instability will move back into Utah and southwest Wyoming beginning late Wednesday into Thursday, with the more active pattern continuing through at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

Seeing a pattern resembling a Rex Block off the Pacific coast this morning, with a low off the southern California coast and a ridge in place to its north. Under the influence of the ridge, Utah and southwest Wyoming are under a dry but relatively cool northerly flow. Current temperatures, though while not much below seasonal normals, are the coldest the area has seen so far this season given the record warmth of late.

The low off the coast will track to the southwest to start the week with the ridge axis shifting east, moving overhead by Wednesday. This will bring a steady warming trend to the area, with highs averaging 10F above seasonal normals by Wednesday. This warming will likely not be realized in the inversion prone valleys of northern Utah, with some decrease in visibility and air quality anticipated as well.

For Wednesday into Thursday, the Pacific low is on track to rapidly move back to the northeast, onshore along the California coast by early Thursday. This will further nudge the ridge, shifting the forecast area to a southwest flow aloft that will tap into the tropical moisture accompanying the weakening low. Thus, we'll see the return of moisture and instability to the area, initially over southwest Utah Wednesday night, spreading across the remainder of the area Thursday. Overall, with the system weakening and little in the way of jet support, the moisture is much more impressive than the instability associated with this feature. Additionally, high snow levels (8,000 to 9,000 foot range most likely) will limit accumulations to the higher peaks. Overall, expected accumulations with this feature have gone down noticeably with this forecast package.

The active pattern is then expected to continue thereafter, through at least the early part of next week, with the departure of the Pacific ridge allowing storm systems to move onshore and into the Great Basin. There still remains significant spread in the guidance with regard to the timing, track, and strength of any particular feature, but confidence is increasing in an overall unsettled pattern beginning late this week.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace. Dry conditions with clear skies will continue with light and diurnally driven winds.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.