textproduct: Salt Lake City

SYNOPSIS

Northwest flow will gradually transition to upper level ridging through the week, bringing a drying and warming trend to most locations.

DISCUSSION

Broad upper level ridge remains in place centered around 28N/131W. Northwest flow is stretched across much of the West, with several weak shortwave troughs noted this afternoon embedded in this flow. The next shortwave trough to impact the Beehive State is noted across western Idaho as of press time.

This shortwave trough will shift across southern Idaho and northern Utah this evening into tonight. Sufficient moisture combined with weak cold air advection will bring light snow showers to the northern mountains, largely north of I-80 and perhaps light rain/snow showers to portions of the Cache Valley this evening. Total snow accumulation for the Bear River Range (25th to 75th percentile) will be 2 to 4 inches by Monday morning.

The eastern Pacific ridge will begin to shift eastward in response to a digging trough across Montana into the upper Midwest Tuesday. The majority of ensemble members now indicate this will shift the storm track/atmospheric river event north and east of the CWA Tuesday into Wednesday. The updated forecast is considerably lower across the northern mountains, with less than a quarter inch of precipitation south of about I-84 and maximum of around a half an inch across the Bear River Range Wednesday into Thursday on the southern periphery of the storm track.

The most impactful portion of the forecast will be strong, gusty winds over Uinta County, WY. 700mb winds will increase to around 50 to 60 kts by Tuesday afternoon and remain elevated through at least Thursday. Right now, the probability of exceeding 50 mph in this area is 25% across Uinta County Tuesday afternoon, 45-50% Wednesday afternoon, and around 20% Thursday afternoon. May need to start considering high wind watches

As an even stronger and deeper trough builds into the eastern half of the country later this week, upper level ridging will amplify further keeping the region in a dry, relatively warm pattern.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Broken or overcast clouds in VFR range will prevail throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Isolated showers, primarily mountain snow showers, will cause mountain obscuration through around 12Z. Conditions will clear after that with light winds for northern Utah and west/southwest wind gusts around 25 knots for southwest Wyoming. Clouds will increase throughout southern Utah after 00Z, then clear after 09Z.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.