textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A dry cold front will bring a brief cooling trend Sunday to northern and central Utah. Temperatures will remain near record levels across southern Utah. - Near record temperatures will return to northern and central Utah Tuesday.

- Another dry cold front will cross much of the state Thursday, with temperatures north of Cedar City falling to around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Areas south of Cedar City will cool 1 to 4 degrees or so.

- Temperatures will warm once again to 10 to 20 degrees above normal next weekend.

- Guidance continues to show less than a 5% chance of measurable precipitation through at least Thursday across Utah and Uinta County, WY.

DISCUSSION

Evening upper air and satellite analysis indicates the upper level ridge responsible for breaking all time monthly records across the region for March, has flattened in response to an approaching shortwave trough and southward shifting polar jet.

The associated dry cold front will shift across northern and central Utah Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures to these locations...though still remaining around 10 degrees or so above normal. Southern Utah will remain within 5 degrees of Saturday's temperatures, especially for the lower elevations near the Arizona border.

The upper ridge will amplify northward again Monday...with temperatures increasing around 10 degrees over Sunday's highs for northern and central Utah. By Tuesday, temperatures will once again be approaching near record to record levels state-wide. This trend will continue through Wednesday.

Another shortwave trough will flatten the upper level ridge Thursday and bring a dry cold front through the region once again. This will bring another period of cooler temperatures to northern and central Utah (though still around 10 degrees above normal), with the Arizona/Utah border region remaining within 5 degrees of the hot temperatures Wednesday.

Again the upper level ridge rebounds Friday into Saturday and again, temperatures will increase to around 10 to 20 degrees above normal by Saturday.

For those looking for precipitation chances to improve...around 40 percent of ensemble members are suggesting troughing to develop across the West as early as Sunday the 29th to Monday the 30th. Current probability of measurable precipitation increases in this time period to around 40-50% for the mountains, 30% or so for the valleys. Something to watch for and see which direction the ensemble members shift to...the 60% that are either maintaining strong ridging...or keeping the trough offshore...or the 40% with mean troughing across the West.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

A cold front will favor largely northerly winds across northern Utah tonight into Sunday and in southern Utah after around 10z. These winds will generally remain light, increasing a bit for Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with generally high clouds.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.