textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur each afternoon and evening through Wednesday across southern and eastern Utah.

- By Thursday, widespread critical fire weather conditions are increasing in likelihood across the southern half of Utah. These conditions will redevelop Friday afternoon and evening.

- As temperatures warm, the chance of Moderate HeatRisk increases above 50% across most valleys of Utah Wednesday, with probabilities climbing to 60-70% or higher by Saturday.

DISCUSSION

The story of the forecast for the next seven days is a very active northern jet remaining well to the north of the region juxtapositioned by a very dry and hot airmass across the area. With each shortwave passing to the north, southwest flow will increase across southern and eastern Utah through Wednesday, which will bring the threat of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions to these areas each afternoon and evening. One of the bigger question marks will be whether these hot and dry conditions will allow deeper mixing...and thus better downward momentum transfer. For now, expect most areas will remain in the elevated to locally critical range through Wednesday, but it will be something to monitor.

By Thursday, a stronger shortwave trough embedded in the northern stream will bring a dry cold front into northwest Utah. 700mb flow across southern and eastern Utah will increase to 20-30kts. This will combine with very low humidities to bring the threat of widespread critical fire conditions. 700mb flow may decrease around 2-5kts on Friday, however, should be sufficient for another round of critical fire weather conditions based on current guidance trends.

Looking at the various ensemble solutions through next Sunday...most lower elevation locations have less than 5% chance of any measurable precipitation, with mountain areas seeing around 5-10% with the exception of the Uintas which will have several threats of isolated thunderstorms. That's a lot of words for it will be largely dry and hot through at least next weekend.

With the probability of HeatRisk reaching moderate increasing to above 50% as early as Wednesday, Heat Advisories may become necessary for the northern valleys, especially by Friday into Saturday. Future shifts will monitor trends.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Winds will be light and terrain-driven through the overnight hours, outside of any rogue gust associated with weak high-based showers moving from the West Desert to KEVW between 05-11z. VFR conditions will prevail.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.