textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1001 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- High pressure will bring dry conditions through Monday with temperatures near or just below seasonal normals.

- Moisture and instability will return to the area beginning late Monday, bringing an increasing potential of showers and thunderstorms. The unsettled pattern is most likely to continue for much of the remainder of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1001 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The Pacific Northwest low that has been moving across northern Utah is now centered over central Wyoming this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms continued into the early evening for northeastern portions of the forecast area, but given the loss of daytime heating and the eastward movement of the low, showers have dissipated and skies are mostly clear for the vast majority of the area. Northern Utah and southwest Wyoming locations saw much cooler temperatures today, with maxes averaging 10F below seasonal normals. Over southern Utah, there was much less cooling, keeping temperatures near normal for this time of year.

High pressure is expected to move overhead tomorrow afternoon, with Utah and southwest Wyoming sandwiched in between the exiting low and another one approaching the California coast. As the ridge builds, maxes for northern portions of the area will increase by a few degrees, running 5-7F above seasonal normals, with little change over southern Utah. By Monday afternoon, the ridge axis is on track to move into Colorado, with the resultant southerly flow bringing temperatures back to near normals across the entire area.

Southerly flow over the area is expected to increase by Monday night as the California low makes its way into the Great Basin. In this flow, monsoonal moisture is expected to advect back northward into the area, with PWs expected to be in the 0.6 to 0.8 inch range across much of the area by early Tuesday. Though confidence is high that there will be less moisture coming up with this push than what was seen last week, it will still increase the potential of showers and thunderstorms across the area. There remains some spread in the guidance with regard to the system's track after it moves into the Great Basin and how much it weakens while onshore. However, the majority of guidance is now indicating it will take a turn into southern Utah Monday night, moving across the remainder of the area in a weakened state during the day Tuesday. With this extra instability, the forecast for coverage of convection on Tuesday is definitely trending upward.

Ensemble spread increases further for the latter part of the upcoming week. Guidance is generally favoring a continued unsettled pattern for much of the remainder of the week, keeping temperatures near normal with occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms. It should be noted that a minority of guidance, including the latest deterministic EC, show strong high pressure returning by late in the upcoming week, bringing a warming and drying trend.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist across the KSLC airspace through the TAF period with diurnal wind shifts. The next wind shift to northwesterly can be expected around 18z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to persist across all terminals through the TAF period with diurnal wind shifts. Low clouds are expected through the morning at KEVW with brief instances of IFR CIGs possible, though length remains uncertain enough to leave out of the TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 444 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Cool and dry air continues to spread across UT following a cold front keeping precipitation chances near zero through Monday afternoon. Later Monday evening into Tuesday morning, southerly/southwesterly winds look to develop ushering in moisture to the state. This will raise chances for showers and thunderstorms statewide starting with southern UT late Monday evening, with central and northern UT following through much of Tuesday. This wet pattern will last through at least Wednesday, with activity favoring eastern UT Wednesday afternoon as another cold front enters the state.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.