textproduct: Salt Lake City

DISCUSSION

Conditions remain relatively benign through Saturday, with the main threat through this period being gusty southwest winds across the region. Winds remain elevated through this evening with widespread gusts 30-45 mph, before tapering mainly across lower elevations overnight. A strong low-level jet moving overhead Friday morning will result in similarly gusty winds quickly redeveloping across much of Utah and southwest Wyoming by late morning, continuing through the evening. Have opted to hold off from headlines despite some areas likely hitting advisory criteria especially Friday, given the lack of spatial coverage of winds in excess of 45 mph and the fact the low-level jet maximizes in the morning instead of peak mixing in the afternoon. The deep trough off the coast of California driving these winds retrogrades slightly westward off the coast on Saturday, easing upper level winds and resulting in lighter, though still breezy, winds on Saturday afternoon.

Increasing moisture is expected across the region through the weekend, though chances for showers and thunderstorms remains low through Saturday as we will lack an outside forcing. Conditions shift drastically by Sunday. The aforementioned trough along the California coast is expected to eject eastward through northern Utah on Sunday, providing ample amounts of instability; concurrently, deep tropical moisture associated with what is now Hurricane Marie advects northward into the region as it moves northwest along the Baja Peninsula. This will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms developing across much of Utah and southwest Wyoming on Sunday. Given the deep moisture that will be in place, heavy rain will be a threat across much of the region, with main concerns for flash flooding across central and southern Utah where soils are already primed from recent rainfall. Across northern Utah, the potential for severe thunderstorms is beginning to emerge -- forecasted environmental conditions are becoming increasingly favorable given the passage of the aforementioned trough overhead. Plentiful instability and shear will exist, supportive of more robust updrafts capable of producing wet microburst winds, hail, and lightning.

After the passage of the trough on Sunday, broad ridging under dry southwest flow quickly allows any residual convective activity to wane early Monday. Dry conditions look to prevail through at least mid-next week, with overall pleasantly cooler seasonable temperatures also expected through this period.

AVIATION, Issued 1109 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

KSLC...Surface winds are expected to ramp up over the next 1-2hrs with enhanced southerlies persisting into tomorrow at the KSLC terminal. Gusts out of the south up to 30kts are possible this afternoon, though higher probabilities exist tomorrow of reaching 30kts. Sustained winds out of the south are expected to range from 15-20kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Enhanced south/southwesterly winds are forecast to develop across all TAF sites through the period. KLGU and our southern UT sites will see the highest wind gusts from this, potentially in excess of 30kts in the afternoon hours. Due to the strength of this system, winds will remain south/southwesterly through the duration of the TAF period. However, VFR conditions will persist otherwise across all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Gusty southwest winds have developed again this afternoon and are expected to remain especially elevated into Friday with widespread gusts 30-45 mph each afternoon. Portions of western Utah will see relative humidity values below 15 percent through this evening; when coupled with strong winds already in place, areas of critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across this area. Despite critical fire weather conditions being realized today, improvements in fuel moisture across the region keeps the risk moderated. While winds remain gusty across the area on Friday, relative humidity is expected to increase above critical levels across most of the region with improving overnight recoveries.

Despite increasing moisture through Saturday, a lack of outside forcing will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms low through this period. A more significant moisture surge with a concurrent passage of a strong upper-level wave is expected on Sunday, resulting in the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms across a majority of the state. Conditions will be favorable across central and southern Utah especially for heavy rain and flash flooding, with a threat for severe wind and heavy rain across northern Utah. Otherwise, storms are expected to taper off through early Monday, with drier conditions developing through mid-week as high pressure redevelops over the region.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277.