textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1005 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- High pressure looks to bring quiet, warm, and dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

- A weak system will traverse the Great Basin Monday bringing gusty conditions and serving to moderate the warming trend.

- Another system may renew precipitation chances late-week, though confidence is quite low at this time.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1005 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Broad westerly flow aloft looks to persist across the Great Basin as mid-level ridging strengthens across the Southwest. With much of UT sitting along the northern periphery of this ridge, dry and mild conditions are expected to persist through the next several days. On Monday, a weak system looks to move northeast across the Great Basin and clip northern UT. This feature will result in modest gusts developing in the afternoon statewide as well as putting a halt to the warming trend, though temperatures will generally run ~10F above seasonal normals across much of the state through the forecast period.

Around the Friday-Saturday timeframe, there exists a 40-50% chance of a pattern breakdown with some degree of troughing developing across the western U.S., ushering in a return to active weather. There is considerable uncertainty regarding this solution at this time, primarily due to placement of the mid-level troughs which would notably impact any precipitation development across the forecast area. Additionally, given the active EPAC tropics, moisture within long-range guidance remains somewhat unreliable at this time. Regardless, there is high confidence with dry and mild conditions persisting through nearly the entirety of this forecast package.

AVIATION, Issued 1005 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal through the forecast period. Dry and stable conditions with mostly clear skies will continue. The terminal is currently experiencing light south to southeasterly flow before becoming a more enhanced southerly flow around 17Z due a weak boundary propagating across the area. Around 21Z, the flow will switch back to diurnally-driven northwesterly winds.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist at all TAFs sites through the forecast period. Dry and stable conditions with diurnally-driven winds will prevail at all sites. Some high clouds may move across the northern terminals due a weak boundary propagating across northern Utah.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will continue to strengthen across the western US through Monday, resulting in temperatures climbing around 10 degrees above average through this period. A dry airmass will bring a slight downtrend in RH values, with driest conditions expected across western Utah where daytime RH values drop into the 15 to 20 percent range. A weak system brushing across northern Utah late Monday brings an increase in northerly flow aloft, allowing temperatures to moderate slightly Tuesday onward. Outside of a low chance of showers and storms developing on the higher terrain as a result of this upper-level system on Tuesday, chances for meaningful precipitation appears low over the next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.