textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1219 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Numerous Flood and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect for southern and eastern Utah, as widespread moderate to heavy precipitation persists through this evening.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms much of Utah through this evening, with a threat for large hail and damaging winds.

- Accumulating snowfall is expected across the higher terrain of northern Utah tonight into Friday morning, with 1-4" likely above 9000 feet. There is a chance of locally higher amounts for favored locations.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1219 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Tropical moisture in place across the forecast area will continue to fuel widespread showers and thunderstorms through this evening, as an upstream low along the California coast makes its way through the Great Basin. Ample deep layer shear will maintain a favorable environment for organized convection including supercells anywhere sufficient breaks in the cloud cover allow for destabilization, as has been evidenced across southwest Utah over the past few hours. Efficient rainfall rates will also continue to result in excessive runoff. Most large drainages across south central into east central Utah are already running high and fast, and as such Flood Warnings are in effect for these areas.

A shortwave trough rounding the base of the upstream low will lift across the forecast area this evening, focusing the heavier precipitation further north into northern Utah/southwest Wyoming. Initially a band of showers and thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, is expected to propagate across northwest Utah reaching the Wasatch Front this evening, followed by a fairly broad stratiform region of precipitation associated with the passage of the upper trough. Snow levels will fall to roughly 8000 feet overnight, with accumulating snow largely above 9000 feet. Previous forecast totals of 1-4" with locally higher amounts still look reasonable, with a few locally higher totals if precip is able to linger into Friday morning.

As the initial low ejects into the northern Rockies, a secondary upper low is forecast to form over the Desert Southwest Saturday, then slowly translate into the central/southern Rockies Sunday. This will maintain cool temperatures across the forecast area, along with a chance of precipitation mainly across the eastern third of the CWA. An upper trough across the Pacific Northwest looks to keep temperatures near to slightly below climo for much of next week.

AVIATION

KSLC...Showers will continue through around 10Z Friday, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible early. There will be around a 40% chance of MVFR VIS/CIGS with showers, and a 10-20% chance of brief IFR with any thunderstorm or heavy shower. While winds are generally favored to remain southerly, showers will bring some periods of west to northwest winds through about 03Z-04Z. Southerly winds are then expected to increase later overnight through Friday morning. Isolated showers then redevelop Friday afternoon into the evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually decrease in coverage from south to north through the evening and into the overnight hours. The exception will be far northern terminals where more persistent shower activity is likely to continue. There will be around a 40% chance of MVFR VIS/CIGS with showers, and a 10-20% chance of brief IFR with any thunderstorm or heavy shower. Winds will still tend to favor a southerly direction, if not variable at times. At terminals roughly along and north of I-80, some isolated to scattered showers are expected to redevelop Friday afternoon.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ117-120-121- 123>131.

WY...None.