textproduct: Salt Lake City

DISCUSSION, Issued 1241 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Mid level ridging amplifying across the Desert Southwest will result in a continued warming trend through Tuesday, with daytime temperatures remaining 5 to 10 degrees above normal across the forecast area through the remainder of the week. These temperatures will result in widespread moderate HeatRisk values across lower elevations and some pockets of major HeatRisk. These conditions may lead to an increase in heat related illness, particularly given the duration of above normal temperatures.

The western periphery of this ridge axis will begin to erode midweek allowing moisture to spread northward into the Desert Southwest and up into the eastern Great Basin Wednesday. This will result in a chance for convection across central and southern Utah Wednesday afternoon and evening, and potentially into the north as well. Initially these storms may be dry, but given the apparent influx of lower level moisture may quickly transition to a mixture of wet and dry. The models have trended faster this cycle in spreading southwesterly flow into the forecast area and sweeping most if not all of this moisture to the east by Thursday.

Confidence is increasing in a strong southwesterly flow developing across the forecast area Friday into Saturday, ahead of a cold front associated with a deep trough settling into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph look likely across western Utah Friday, with gusts approaching 50 mph Saturday across central and southern Utah ahead of this front. This combined with a wedge of very dry air will result in potentially significant fire weather conditions, particularly when considering the potential for new starts from Wednesday's lightning, and existing fires already on the landscape.

The approaching cold front will cross the forecast area sometime Saturday into early Sunday, with uncertainty centering around the exact timing. Given the strong forcing will likely see some convection the vicinity of the front Saturday afternoon. Much cooler air behind the front will bring a dramatic drop in temperatures along the Wasatch Front, falling from the mid 90s Friday (and potentially Saturday depending on frontal timing), into the 60s and low 70s Sunday. A less dramatic cooling trend of around 10 degrees is expected across southern Utah.

AVIATION, Issued 1241 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

KSLC...Northwesterly winds will persist through the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight after ~03z. VFR conditions will likely prevail, though wildfire smoke could produce reductions in slantwise visibility, particularly around sunrise and sunset.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds will be largely light and terrain-driven across the area, but may become a bit squirrelly near KLGU overnight as a few light high-based showers move through between ~10-15z. VFR conditions will prevail across most areas, though wildfire smoke may result in slantwise VIS reductions across Utah and southwest Wyoming...particularly sites closer to wildfires such as KPVU and KHCR, and around sunrise/sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

A hot and dry airmass will remain in place across the state through Tuesday, as daytime temperatures continue to run 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the latter half of June. Afternoon RH will remain below 15 percent across nearly all elevations below 8000 feet through Tuesday, with overnight recovery marginal to poor in the north, and nearly non-existant across much of southern Utah. Gusty west winds will trend a little stronger Tuesday across south central and southeast Utah, which prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for zones 494, 496 and 498.

Moisture will spread northward into southern, central and potentially portions of northern Utah Wednesday, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Initially these storms will likely be high based with dry lightning and strong outflows a threat. However, a quick transition from dry to a mixture of wet and dry storms may occur Wednesday afternoon/evening, particularly across southern Utah. Given this uncertainty have held off on a Fire Weather Watch at this time. This moisture looks to be swept out of the area during the day Thursday, as a general southwesterly flow develops across the region.

A potentially significant period of critical fire weather conditions is looking more likely Friday into Saturday, as strong southwesterly flow along with a very dry airmass spread across the state, ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind gusts Friday look likely to reach the 40 mph range across western Utah. As the front approaches, and eventually crosses Utah Saturday, these wind gusts may reach 50 mph at times across central and southern Utah Saturday afternoon. There is some uncertainty with frontal timing which will determine how far north these strong winds extend Saturday, but look most likely south of the I-70/US-50 corridor. As this front sweeps through the region, much cooler temperatures will follow for Sunday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ494-496- 498.

WY...None.