textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1011 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances return to southern Utah Sunday and Monday.

- Widespread precipitation chances return as early as Tuesday and continue on through Friday. Forecast water amounts are around 0.50" to 1.50", with locally up to 2.00" or so in favored high terrain.

- Modest snow accumulation of around 3" to 8" will be possible above 9500 ft or so as snow levels dip Thursday into late Friday.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1011 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Another pleasant weather day underway across the region today. Much like Friday, temperatures are running around 5-10 degrees below seasonal normal across south to southeast Utah, and near normal elsewhere. Water vapor and visible satellite show moisture/cloud cover lifting into southern Utah around a cutoff low, but dry conditions are expected to be maintained throughout the daytime hours Saturday.

The cutoff low and associated moisture will gradually get tugged northeastward into the northern jet. Low end (~10-30%) shower chances then creep into portions of southern Utah overnight into Sunday, with a few isolated thunderstorms also possible Sunday afternoon. While instability is limited, PWAT anomalies to around 200% of normal will support at least some localized threat of a couple cells with more moderate rain rates. While widespread flash flooding is not anticipated, have introduced "Possible" ratings in the Flash Flood Potential to Bryce Canyon, Capitol Reef, the Grand Staircase, and Zion, and primarily for the more rain sensitive basins in those areas. Similar conditions are anticipated Monday as the low further ejects into the northern stream.

Tuesday onward will see the deepening northern stream cutoff another broad low across the western CONUS before gradually translating eastward through the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Ensemble members still show some differences in how exactly this transpires, with some members now showing some potential for a brief dry slot Wednesday. Broadly speaking though, ample moisture advection into the area in combination with strong synoptic forcing will support increased chances of widespread precipitation Tuesday through Friday (excluding Wednesday if the dry slot develops). Chances likely will be maximized in the Thursday/Friday time frames as ensembles favor that window for when the trough axis passes through the local forecast region. This will also be the window where a slightly cooler airmass shifts in, and snow levels initially above 10000 ft drop to around 8000-8500 ft and allow a brief window of modest high elevation snow accumulation. Forecast water amounts once again have not changed much with many areas expected to see 0.50-1.50" or so, and up to around 2.00" in favored high terrain. Given limited cold air, forecast snow totals are around 3-8" for elevations generally above 9500 ft.

AVIATION, Issued 1214 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

KSLC...VFR conditions prevail under clear skies at the KSLC terminal through the day. Light southerly drainage winds prevail through early this afternoon before switching to a northerly flow around 20Z. Expect a transition back to southeasterly winds after 02z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. Generally light and terrain driven flows are expected across the area, with the exception being areas around KSGU where breezy easterly winds remain in place. Otherwise, anticipate an increase in high level cloud cover across the southern half of the area through the late afternoon and evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Not found in SLCFWFSLC.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.