textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight risk for excessive rainfall is in effect for portions of southwestern Utah Thursday, with the remainder of the state in a marginal risk. A marginal risk continues for the entire state through Friday.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is outlooked across much of western and central Utah Thursday afternoon and evening. There is a 5-10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 58 mph across this area.

- A drier pattern will build into the region this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1032 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

High pressure over the southern Plains today will be shifting westward through the end of the week, allowing more of a southwesterly flow to spread into the area. Afternoon PWATs today ranged from 0.9 inches across far northern and northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming to 1.2 inches across southwest Utah. This allowed scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area again, most of which should gradually diminish overnight. However, isolated rain showers will remain possible through the night.

For Thursday, PWATs will remain largely similar to today, then trend slightly downward for Friday. However, in between the ridge axis to the east and a mean trough developing to the west, a series of shortwave weather disturbances is progged to eject across Utah Thursday and Friday. Larger-scale lift and increased jet support will favor more widespread and stronger storms, which will in turn bring an increased potential for heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds. Thursday should generally feature the most active weather day this week, as thunderstorm activity may decrease a bit for Friday owing to the moisture trends.

For Saturday and Sunday, PWATs continue to trend downward, to 1 inch or less in most areas. As a result, convective activity will decrease for the weekend, although likely not completely dry, as some terrain-based showers are still anticipated. Thereafter, there is still some model spread in relation to the ridge position for next week and whether significant moisture will return. There are some indications that moisture may return as early as Monday. Latest deterministics, however, are not very promising in that regard, and NBM trends currently keep PWATs and PoPs on the lower side through at least the middle of next week. After cooler temperatures through Friday, temperatures will start to gradually climb again over the weekend, returning closer to climatological normals by the early to middle part of next week, especially if the airmass does remain on the drier side.

AVIATION, Issued 1032 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Showery conditions continuing across northern Utah into early Thursday morning brings a slight chance for rain showers to impact the terminal. Impacts will be limited outside of winds becoming more variable at times. More widespread convection develops Thursday afternoon, with a 30% chance for thunderstorms to impact the terminal mainly in the 20z-02z window. Storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds to 30 kts in addition to heavy rainfall that could reduce VIS to MVFR briefly and lower CIGS <6kft. Outside of outflow winds, generally light southeasterly winds prevail overnight then become northwesterly after 19z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the southern portion of the airspace into early Thursday morning. A brief lull in activity is expected across the northern portion of the airspace this evening, before scattered showers and thunderstorms become more widely spread Thursday morning. Widespread convective activity is expected to develop again after 18-20z Thursday across much of the airspace, with potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40 kts as well as heavy rainfall that could push VIS into the MVFR category.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 157 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

A monsoon surge will continue to bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms and associated gusty and erratic winds through the next few days. By this weekend, drier air will work into the region as high pressure shifts eastward. Humidities will quickly fall across the region over the weekend, with widespread minimum humidities near 15 to 20 percent for valleys and 30 to 45 percent for mountains by Sunday. Those low daytime humidities will remain in place through at least early next week. Any relief from these low humidities will be tied to whether high pressure will shift into a more beneficial location for another monsoon surge.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.