textproduct: Salt Lake City

DISCUSSION, Issued 1042 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A weak shortwave trough which brought area showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southern two-thirds of Utah today will continue its track to the southeast over the next 24-hours, bringing stabilizing conditions across the region. That said, models are showing a slower progression of this shortwave which is likely to result in at least isolated shower development over the high terrain across Utah through the remainder of the week, especially as mid-level moisture lingers overhead. While no significant weather is expected through the end of the week, completely dry conditions will not prevail over the mountains.

As we head into the weekend, the focus then shifts to a large scale pattern flip as upstream ridging over Alaska and northwest Canada helps to dislodge cold air, forming a deep trough over the western U.S. Model guidance continues to show impressive agreement with this trough phasing with what is now hurricane Rachel in the eastern Pacific, advecting that moisture into the western U.S. which will interact with the dynamics of the trough. With widespread stout synoptic lift, this moisture is anticipated to bring a significant precipitation event to Utah and southwest Wyoming. At this lead time, there is a relatively high amount of uncertainty revolving around the onset time of the heaviest precipitation, however, the general trend will see a moisture influx into the region through the second half of Saturday with more robust dynamics introduced by Sunday. As such, the thought is that Saturday will feature an increased coverage of area light to moderate showers and strong southwest winds as the trough deepens to our west. Strong south to southwest winds will be maintained through Sunday as the trough is expected to be positioned off to our west.

Within the eastern periphery of the trough, the aforementioned tropical system looks to track through Utah in the form of a shortwave trough, adding solid uplift and additional moisture into the region. This is the period which will be most favored for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall (currently slated for Sunday evening through Monday morning). Previously, models showed potential for a strong cold front to progress through the region in the wake of this wave as the longwave trough tracked eastward over the region. However, guidance has begun shifting toward a cutoff low scenario in which the northern stream cuts off from the southern energy and scrapes by the northern area, taking all the cold air with it. The resulting cutoff low would then look to make moves into the region during the first half of next week, bringing cooler temperatures and continued precipitation (potentially some mountain snowfall above 8,500ft). Will need to get a better pulse check on the model agreement in the next 24-48 hours to dial in on the specifics, but the overall consensus continues to point toward a prolonged period of unsettled weather.

AVIATION

KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions throughout the forecast period with some scattered clouds. Light southeasterly flow remains in placew before switching to diurnally-driven northwesterly winds around 18Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace through the TAF period with generally light and terrain driven winds.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1042 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A weak system will bring isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to central and southern Utah through this evening. Relatively dry and warm conditions will segue to an increasing threat of widespread moderate to heavy rain as a strong Pacific system phases with tropical cyclone to bring deep tropical moisture to Utah. Moderate to heavy precipitation will begin as early as Saturday night and continue through at least Tuesday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.