textproduct: Salt Lake City

SYNOPSIS

A warming and drying trend will continue through at least Monday, bringing pleasant weather for the holiday weekend. Moisture gradually increases through the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing late in the week and into the weekend.

LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)

Dry, quiet conditions will transition to more active weather as moisture gradually increases through the long-term period, particularly across southern Utah. On Tuesday, the ridge overhead will shift slightly eastward as a shortwave trough well to our west draws moisture northward mainly into eastern NV. Being on the fringe of this moisture, southwestern Utah could see isolated thunderstorms as early as Tuesday afternoon, with dry microbursts as the main threat.

Moisture will continue to gradually increase across the forecast area through the week, with PWATs reaching 110-130% of normal by Thursday across western and central Utah. Model guidance continues to hint at a secondary moisture increase over the weekend, though plenty of uncertainty remains regarding its magnitude and overall timing. As is common with monsoonal surges, the main weather impacts will transition from dry microbursts into more of a flash flood threat later in the week and into the weekend.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Expect largely light, terrain- driven winds through the valid TAF period, with mostly clear skies aside from isolated cumulus fields over higher terrain during the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure continues to build over the Great Basin region through Labor Day, bringing warm and dry conditions alongside largely clear skies across Utah. Through Monday, temperatures will gradually warm by 2-4 degrees each day, with the most noteworthy warming expected today. Alongside the warming temperatures, a drying low level environment will bring decreasing afternoon humidity through Monday. Minimum humidity for the week is expected by Monday afternoon as values drop into the 10 to 20 percent range. After Monday, a slow increase in afternoon humidity (1-2 percent increase per day) is expected through midweek. As the axis of the upper level ridge begins to shift to the east through the second half of the week, moisture will increase as south to southeasterly flow becomes more prevalent. As such, will see increasing probabilities of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as we approach the end of the week. Initially, chances for wetting rains will be quite low (only around 20-30% in the high terrain of central and southern Utah), increasing the overall chances for dry lightning though coverage of such will be limited. As we head into the weekend, a more substantial surge of moisture finds its way into Utah and chances for wetting rains and higher afternoon humidity will be present.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.