textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again across portions of central, southern, and northeast UT, along with southwest WY each afternoon with monsoonal moisture in place. - The risk for flash flooding exists across the majority of the forecast area, highlighted by WPC with a Marginal Risk (1/4) of exceeding flash flood guidance each day through Tuesday encompassing nearly all of UT. A Slight Risk (2/4) of exceeding flash flood guidance exists across southern UT Saturday.

- A Flood Watch for flash flooding remains in effect for portions of southern UT for Saturday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

Deep monsoonal moisture will remain in place across the area through at least the middle of next week, leading to daily, mostly diurnal, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Lingering isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening will continue to gradually diminish overnight. Still not looking at any appreciable forcing mechanisms through the weekend, so for Saturday and Sunday, it will be pretty much rinse and repeat, with convection developing initially over the higher terrain, then propagate along cold pools and instability gradients. PWATs are forecast to decrease slightly for Sunday, but this will be brief with moisture increasing again for Monday. This will have little effect on convective coverage, as the low levels remain amply moist.

Global models are hinting at some increasing but subtle vort max activity during the Monday through Wednesday timeframe, which could result in more widespread heavy rain which will also be spreading more into northern Utah. Thereafter, global models are also suggesting a potential drying trend for the second half of next week. This will not be enough to end the diurnal convection, but coverage may decrease towards the end of next week as a result.

AVIATION

KSLC...Southeasterly winds will prevail overnight, transitioning to northwesterly after ~17-18z. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over adjacent higher terrain after 19z, with low confidence as to whether or not these storms move over the terminal during the afternoon. Storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds, moderate-heavy rain, and a low chance of a brief VIS reduction.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers have largely diminished across the area, except for a weak line across far western Utah. Otherwise, conditions will be quiet overnight with overall light and terrain-driven winds. Similar to today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 18z, first across higher terrain then spreading to adjacent valleys. Storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds, moderate-heavy rain, and brief VIS reductions.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1228 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Currently, monsoonal moisture continues to surge north into UT increasing humidities and raising chances for showers and thunderstorms across the state, both serving to moderate fire weather conditions. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain highest across southwest UT, high terrain from southern to northern UT, and the Uintas generally ranging from 60-90%. Additionally, these locations are where a wetting rain is favored this afternoon. Moisture continues to surge into northern UT into this weekend, keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms elevated into next week each afternoon.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for UTZ122>128.

WY...None.