textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 125 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Widespread and significant critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday and Saturday as southwesterly winds near 40-50 mph will combine with hot and dry conditions. This will be a particularly dangerous situation on Friday for the central and southern mountains and southwest Utah.

- A strong cold front will cross the region later Saturday into Sunday bringing colder temperatures and the potential for patchy frost for the Cache Valley and Wasatch Back.

- Critical fire weather conditions will remain possible on Sunday across southeast through east-central Utah.

DISCUSSION

A near zonal flow is in place over Utah this evening while upstream, an upper trough is moving onto the PacNW coast. Scattered convection this afternoon brought some strong storms which produced locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and large hail. However, with instability waning with the loss of daytime heating and drier air moving into the area, only some weaker showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in place at this time, and even these will continue to diminish over the next few hours.

For Friday, the airmass will continue to dry fairly significantly as southwest flow increases ahead of the upstream trough. Winds will be fairly strong, with gusts up to 50 mph. A Wind advisory is in effect for the valleys and mountain valleys of west-central through southern Utah. Additionally, combined with low humidities and dry fuels, these winds will bring critical fire weather conditions to much of Utah, with Red Flag Warnings in place. For the central and southern mountains and mountain valleys and for the southwest valleys, higher-end critical fire weather conditions, which would pose a more significant threat to life and property, have prompted an upgrade to a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Red Flag Warning.

One more day of above normal temperatures can be expected Friday ahead of a cold front which will move into northern Utah Friday afternoon through Friday evening. This front will weaken fairly quickly as it moves into central Utah Friday night. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near and behind the cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures on Saturday will fall to 5-10 degrees below normal for Saturday across northern Utah. Even southern Utah will see temperatures up to 5 degrees below normal.

With a trailing disturbance carving in behind the initial shortwave and reinforcing the mean trough, southwest flow will strengthen once again across the area. This will bring another round of critical fire weather conditions to the area and Red Flag Warnings continue through Saturday as a result. However, because humidities are forecast to trend higher for Saturday, the "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Red Flag Warning was not extended into Saturday, just the standard Red Flag Warnings.

A stronger cold front will then push into the area Saturday night. The front will make it to southwest Utah by Sunday afternoon, but southeastern Utah will still see gusty prefrontal winds. Critical fire weather conditions remain possible for this area for Sunday, and later shifts will need to consider extending portions of the existing Red Flag Warnings.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will fall well below normal for Sunday (15-22 degrees in the north and 5-12 degrees in the south), and most northern Utah valleys will likely fail to reach 70 degrees for a high temperature. Showers can be expected across northern Utah near and behind the cold front once again Saturday night into Sunday, with even a potential for a dusting of snow on the higher ridgelines. Colder valleys such as the Cache Valley and Wasatch Back may see frost Sunday night.

The airmass will trend warmer and drier again for the early to middle part of next week. However, with a persistent southwesterly flow, at least localized critical fire weather conditions will remain in place for the southeast and east-central valleys.

AVIATION...KSLC

Southeasterly winds will persist overnight, becoming gusty after 13z and continuing to increase through the afternoon. Winds may further increase to as high as 40kts shortly before a cold front arriving between 01-02z, which will produce a quick transition to strong northwesterly winds. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any blowing dust. Wildfire smoke may also cause slantwise VIS reductions at times.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers will largely end after 08z across most areas, although a some light, scattered showers may hang on during the overnight hours across east-central Utah. These showers may be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds. Otherwise, southerly winds will gradually increase during the overnight hours, especially increasing after sunrise. Southwesterly winds will be very gusty during the afternoon, reaching broadly 30- 45kts across the area. An approaching cold front will push into NW- UT by late afternoon, producing a quick transition to strong westerly to northwesterly winds. However, this front will likely dissipate before reaching south of KPVU. While most sites will remain VFR, some sites could see VIS reductions at times due to blowing dust and/or wildfire smoke.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 125 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A deepening trough of low pressure will gradually sink into the Great Basin Friday into Saturday, along with an associated cold frontal boundary. Deep and dry southwesterly flow will become enhanced ahead of this trough and front. Anticipate widespread daytime wind gusts 40-50 mph, with some gusts locally up to around 55 mph. Daytime humidity values will be very dry, likely falling to around 5-10% Friday, with only modest improvement to around 10-15% possible Saturday. Overnight recoveries also continue to look quite poor, with the only exception being locations that may receive some wetting rain from ongoing thunderstorm activity Thursday. Even then, would expect the very strong winds and dry airmass to overcome this, and as such high confidence in a significant critical fire weather pattern remains.

This front will largely be dry. The only locations that appear to see a favorable amount of available moisture are those in northern Utah, generally north of the I-80 corridor, and especially closer to the Idaho border. Outside of the areas closest to the Idaho border, the chance for wetting rains remain quite low.

The front will begin to push into northern Utah Friday night into Saturday, but retreat back northward quickly. It will then start making more notable southeastward progress Saturday evening into Sunday. It then looks to stall out somewhat along the high terrain of Utah, which may help prolong the gusty conditions ahead of it in portions of southern and eastern Utah particularly. By Monday it finally more or less progresses out of the region, but the overall deep flow shifts back to more of a general southwesterly dominant pattern. While winds and gusts will be much more modest than that of prior to the system passing and there will be a substantial cooldown, combination of dry southwesterly flow and warming trend towards midweek will likely maintain areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to midnight MDT Saturday night for UTZ478-479-482-484-488-489-492-495-497.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM Friday to midnight MDT Friday night for UTZ115-116-118-119-122-123-126>128.

Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to 3 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ493- 494-496-498.

WY...None.