textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 225 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- A marginal risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall is in place across portions of southern Utah through Sunday.

- A cold front is expected to move through northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Sunday evening through Monday morning, bringing below average temperatures in the northern area with little change in the south.

DISCUSSION, Issued 225 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

While an increase in moisture is noted across the central and southern portions of Utah this afternoon, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms is rather dismal as originally anticipated. That said, it is evident that the environment is conducive to thunderstorms and heavy rainfall as SPC mesoanalysis suggests upwards of 1500-2000J/kg of CAPE paired with PWAT values around 1 inch in southern Utah. One singular storm moving across the southern area has been able to tap into this instability and maintain itself while the remainder of the thunderstorm activity has been rather short-lived. In any case, moisture has positioned itself in place across the southern half of Utah and will continue to increase subtly over the next couple of days.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated to be just as isolated on Saturday as weak subsidence in the wake of the current shortwave inhibits widespread thunderstorm activity. The more noteworthy widespread weather that Saturday will feature will be an increase in southwest winds across much of the region, with the strongest winds targeting west-central and southwest Utah, as well as southwest Wyoming. In these areas, afternoon wind gusts will reach upwards of 30-35 mph as a trough remains over the PacNW region. This trough is slated to progress inland and graze northern Utah through the second half of Sunday and into Monday morning, introducing a cold front to the northern area. Behind the cold front, a brief period of stronger west to northwest winds can be expected in northern Utah on the lee sides of mountain ranges.

Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the cold front on Monday across the northern area, with warm southerly return flow bringing a gradual warming trend into the middle of the week. For southern Utah, some level of moisture will remain in place from now through next week, bringing at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

AVIATION

KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the overnight hours with decreasing clouds. Northwest winds are expected to become southerly between 03Z and 05Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The entire airspace will see VFR conditions through the overnight hours. The northern two-thirds of the airspace is expected to remain dry with some scattered clouds and terrain driven winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over southern Utah, primarily focused over southeast Utah. These will tend to dissipate this evening, but there is a low (30-40 percent chance) of additional showers during the overnight hours, primarily along a stalled boundary near a Milford to Hanksville line. Any storms that develop will have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 225 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Moisture increases across the southern and eastern portions of Utah through the upcoming weekend, bringing potential for shower and thunderstorm development over the high terrain in these areas, particularly today and Sunday. While moisture will be increased across the south and east, the northern and western portions of Utah will remain largely dry with minimum relative humidity continuing to fall to near 15% (or slightly below) each afternoon. Breezy southwest winds ahead of a late weekend cold front will pair with the borderline critically dry conditions in western Utah, creating near-critical to isolated critical fire weather conditions on Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

A cold front will graze across northern Utah Sunday evening through Monday morning, bringing shifting winds across the northern third of the area. Localized strong winds may be possible on the lee sides of mountain ranges in northwest Utah during the overnight hours. In the wake of the cold front, much cooler temperatures will spread over the area, though humidity will not see much improvement. Through the remainder of the week, southerly return flow will bring an increase in temperatures across the northern area while southern Utah will see little change in the atmospheric moisture content. As it stands, the greatest concern for fire weather conditions over the next 7 days will exist across western and northern Utah while conditions remain moderated in the southern and eastern area.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.