textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will continue to climb through Saturday. This will increase the threat for heat-related illness for those who are sensitive to heat, without adequate cooling or hydration, or have chronic health conditions.

- Dry conditions and some gusty winds will bring the potential for isolated critical fire weather conditions on Friday. With winds increasing further this weekend and persisting through at least early next week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions will become more widespread for an extended period.

DISCUSSION

Weak ridging across Utah and southwest Wyoming is bringing dry, stable, and unseasonably warm conditions this evening. High temperatures averaged up to 10F above seasonal normals this afternoon and will increase by a few degrees more for tomorrow into Saturday, with high temperatures as much as 15F above seasonal normals by Saturday afternoon.

Conditions will stay quite dry across the area over the next several days. Isolated breezy conditions will bring some isolated critical fire weather conditions for tomorrow, primarily for southwestern portions of the state. As a trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast for Saturday, winds will increase further across Utah and southwest Wyoming, combining with the dry conditions to bring more widespread critical fire weather conditions.

There is relatively high confidence that the trough will graze northern Utah Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing temperatures back to near seasonal normals for Sunday afternoon across northern portions of the area, and within 5F above seasonal normals across southern Utah. The associated cold front still looks to be mostly dry, but guidance overall is trending toward having just a bit more moisture along the front, which could bring a few high based storms as it passes through.

Southerly winds across the area are expected to relax a bit for Sunday with the grazing trough. However, guidance is consistent in showing another broad trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast for Monday. This storm is most likely to wobble around the Pacific Northwest but guidance, as it does, is struggling with the details of the solution for this closed low. As long as this system remains west of the area, breezy conditions will persist, keeping the fire danger high. The eventual passage of the system across the area around the midweek period would bring cooler temperatures and the potential for showers, but confidence remains quite low on the timing.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

No impactful weather expected across the airspace through the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected areawide with winds generally following diurnal trends for most regional terminals. The exception will be northern Utah terminals which will see a period of northerly winds through around 07-10z.

FIRE WEATHER

There is high confidence that rather dry conditions will persist across Utah over the next several days. Southerly winds across the area will pick up on Saturday ahead of an approaching storm system, and this is likely to bring relatively widespread critical fire weather conditions, particularly for central and southern Utah. The storm system will graze northern Utah Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main impact will be noticeably cooler temperatures, particularly for northern Utah, and some decrease in winds. However, there is the potential for isolated high based convection with the front, which would bring a low threat of dry lightning. Winds will pick up again beginning Monday with another Pacific Northwest storm system approaching. This will be a much slower moving system, with gusty winds persisting through at least midweek, bringing a high chance of a prolonged period of critical fire weather conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Tuesday evening for UTZ484-489-492>498.

WY...None.