textproduct: Salt Lake City

DISCUSSION, Issued 121 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Upper level ridging will continue to shift into Utah this afternoon. Meanwhile Hurricane Rachel continues to shift west across the eastern Pacific well offshore southern Baja California. The current National Hurricane Center track brings the circulation of Post-Tropical Depression Rachel near St. George by 5 AM PST Monday, with the cone of uncertainty for this track over much of southern Utah. Note this would be a Post-Tropical Depression, not a tropical storm or a hurricane. Thus, the wind potential is much more limited.

First, let's talk about what this means for the forecast. Looking at the 00Z and 12Z runs of the ensemble suite, confidence is high that tropical moisture from Rachel will combine with a Pacific trough crossing into the West to bring a period of moderate to heavy rain to much of Utah, beginning as early as Saturday evening and continuing through at least Tuesday morning as the trough slowly crosses the West. Between the 07Z and 13Z cycles of the NBM, the 25th percentile of precipitation increased substantially, signaling that the majority of the remaining "dry" ensemble members are also shifting to represent the majority solution.

There is also a subset of ensemble members that indicate a shallow front will combine with polar and sub-tropical jet coupling to bring a period of heavy rain to more northern locations, somewhere between southern Idaho and northern Utah Sunday night into Monday morning. Now, even with modeling advances in 2026, the location of a mesoscale banding feature such as this will be a low confidence forecast this far out, but it is something that should be monitored.

Right now, the 25th to 75th percentile forecast precipitation range would bring a general 1 to 2 inches of rain throughout much of Utah and Uinta County, WY by Tuesday morning. Locally, some locations such as southwestern Utah and northern Utah may see in excess of 3 inches. More about the impacts on area rivers, streams, etc will be in the hydrology section.

There is more spread on how quickly this upper level trough ejects into the Rockies, with most of the guidance favoring a slower system and thus moderate to heavy rain continuing beyond Tuesday...with a subset of these members ingesting additional tropical moisture from TD Twenty-E into eastern Utah. We will need to watch this, as well, given the area will likely already be quite saturated from the tropical moisture associated with Rachel.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period. Light northwest winds remain in place before switching to diurnally-driven southeasterlies around 3Z this evening. Northwesterlies will return around 19Z tomorrow.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all regional terminals, with generally light diurnally driven winds through the TAF period. Cumulus cloudS will continue to develop over the higher terrain through the evening with some isolated showers and thundertorms. These storms could bring some gusty and erratic winds, lightning, and a brief mountain obscurations.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 126 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

After a dry and warm period, a Pacific system will combine with landfalling now Hurricane Rachel to bring a period of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall as early as Saturday evening, continuing into at least Tuesday morning. Some areas above 10,000 feet will see light snow accumulations, particularly Monday night into Tuesday morning. Additional precipitation may occur Tuesday into Wednesday...and potentially into the late week period depending on the speed of this Pacific system and the integration of additional tropical moisture from a second tropical system.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.