textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated storms across the area with a localized risk of flash flooding through Tuesday evening. - Dry and windy conditions Wednesday through Friday, but improved fuels will only lead to locally critical fire weather conditions.

- Tropical moisture from Marie in the eastern Pacific arrives this weekend which will greatly increase the risk of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Isolated thunderstorms are developing across southern Utah with the risk of flash flooding remaining possible. These storms will continue to blossom this afternoon, particularly along and near the terrain of central and northern Utah. Given the saturated soil conditions across the region it won't take as much to lead to flash flooding. Drier air moves into the area for Wednesday-Friday as a trough across the PNW and a ridge across the southern plains induces a strong pressure gradient that will lead to gusty southwest winds developing across the area with daytime gusts 45-50 mph.

These winds will stay elevated through Friday before moisture starts to advect into the region from tropical storm Marie in the eastern Pacific. Guidance currently highlights Sunday as having the greatest swath of moisture across central and southwestern Utah. Details still need to be ironed out, but given the state of soil moisture there will likely be an increased risk of flash flooding across these areas impacted by the tropical moisture this weekend.

AVIATION

KSLC...Breezy south winds are expected over the KSLC terminal throughout the day, with VFR conditions prevailing. Wind gusts in excess of 25kts will persist overnight. While shower and thunderstorm development is expected >10 miles away from the airfield, erratic outflow winds may still move over the terminal after about 20Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Expect VFR conditions areawide today with showers and thunderstorms developing over the high terrain and adjacent valley areas during the afternoon hours. Shower and thunderstorm activity will primarily exist east of the I-15 corridor. Breezy south to southwest winds are expected across the western half of Utah, with peak gusts of upwards of 25-30 kts along and west of the I-15 corridor. Showers and thunderstorms may also bring gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 25kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Lingering moisture today will lead to isolated thunderstorms, primarily hugging the terrain, today before drier air moves in for Wednesday-Friday. An area of low pressure across the PNW and high pressure to our southeast will induce a strong southwesterly winds across the area with daytime wind gusts 45-50 mph. Relative humidity will be lowest on Wednesday across western Utah with recoveries into the 30s overnight. Given several days of wetting rains the critical fire weather conditions will be more localized for areas that did not receive as much precipitation.

Moisture starts to slowly creep upwards Thursday and Friday with daytime winds remaining strong so critical fire weather conditions will decrease slightly each day. By the weekend tropical moisture will be pulled into the area from the eastern Pacific tropical storm Marie. This will lead to widespread precipitation this weekend with the greatest probability of precipitation on Sunday across southwestern Utah.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.