textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1002 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Near record temperatures, potentially all-time records across northern Utah, will continue through Sunday.

- Temperatures cool gradually through most of next week as monsoon moisture starts to push into the area which will increase the flash flood risk, particularly for recent burn scars.

DISCUSSION, Issued 207 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

An anomalously strong ridge is centered over eastern Utah this afternoon. This is bringing subsidence that has prevented any afternoon clouds or convection from developing. It is also responsible for the very hot temperatures. We will top out in the triple digits today across most locations, however the record at KSLC will likely hold given that the record for the day is 106 (2024) and our current forecast is for 103. Tomorrow will be the hottest day, though, with a current forecast of 106 that would break the previous record for the day of 105 (2024). There is the potential for tying the all-time record high (107) or even breaking it. Ensembles are in agreement that 700 mb temperatures will peak around 20C. This would be very close to the sounding climatology's all-time record of 20.2C. The reason we might not beat the all-time record is our lack of strong southerly winds that tend to downslope off the terrain and heat the air up a degree or two more. There still remains ~30% chance of reaching 107 and a 10% chance of getting to 108. There will be little relief overnight as lows remain in the 70s for the foreseeable future.

As this ridge starts to shift east late Sunday some of the first monsoonal moisture will start to creep into southern Utah as PWATs approach 1 inch. There is ~30% chance of some afternoon high- based convection developing across the terrain of southern Utah tomorrow afternoon. With steering flow from east to west the convection will struggle to make it off of the terrain into adjacent valleys. Cloud cover and increased moisture across the south will keep temperatures in St. George, for example, similar to temperatures across the valleys of northern Utah.

As this ridge continues to march towards the east more monsoon moisture will push into the area from south to north. PWATs start to push into the 95th+ percentile across northern Utah by Wednesday with potential for daily PWAT records to be broken. With this moisture, the risk for flash flooding will be elevated for most of next week. With recent large burn scars across the CWA there will be a greater risk of flash flooding and debris flows in these areas that have been impacted.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions prevail over the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period alongside light, diurnally driven winds. Clear skies will persist through the evening, with a few high level clouds increasing overnight. Northwesterly winds will transition back to a southeasterly wind after sundown, remaining in place through the overnight hours.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period areawide. Areas of high-based showers forming along the highest terrain in southern, central, and northeastern Utah will dissipate after sundown, leading to largely clear skies overnight. Winds will remain terrain driven at all terminals through the evening and overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 207 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

An anomalously strong high pressure is centered overhead. This is creating near record temperatures, particularly across the northern half of Utah, along with very dry conditions. This heat is creating unstable conditions this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon, but the winds will remain relatively light diurnally driven. There is ~30% of high based convection across the terrain of southern Utah Sunday afternoon as some moisture creeps into the southwest.

By Monday the high shifts to the east. This will help to gradually cool temperatures and open the door for a better moisture tap. Initially, this moisture will mostly be in the form of increased cloud cover and terrain driven convection across southern Utah. But as the week progresses that moisture will expand further north and develop more easily across both valleys and mountains.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Extreme Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ101>108-114- 116-118>121.

Extreme Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ115-122- 128>131.

WY...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ021.