textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation across northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming will gradually diminish through the day as an upper level low exits to the northeast.

- As temperatures warm, the chance of Moderate HeatRisk increases to above 50% across the Wasatch Front and northwest Utah by the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

An upper low is centered near the UT/WY/CO triple point late this morning. Moisture continues to wrap around this low, with an area of stratiform precipitation noted over northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming. With H7 temperatures near the low center around 0 to -1C, snow levels near 9kft have resulted in snow over the higher terrain. As the upper low continues to slowly shift northeast through the rest of the day, the current area of precipitation will gradually pull eastward and diminish. Some afternoon convection will be possible near the periphery of the stratiform rain as well as south and west of it where clearer skies reside, but these are expected to be generally isolated and rather weak. Given the cooler airmass in place, max temperatures today will remain 5-15 degrees below normal.

The airmass will trend drier for tomorrow while temperatures trend warmer. The next shortwave trough is expected to graze northern Utah on Tuesday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across northern Utah on Monday as a result. Thereafter, the northern stream remains somewhat active, with additional troughs developing north and northwest of Utah through the week. However, Utah should remain fairly dry during this timeframe. Depending on how amplified some of these storm systems become, there will be a potential for increasing southerly winds and potential fire weather concerns, but chances for critical fire weather conditions remain less than 40% except for potentially Thursday when NBM chances are higher, but the latest global deterministic models do not seem to support that so much. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend upward through the week, with valley temperatures climbing into the 90s by the end of the coming week. This would introduce some Moderate Heat Risk especially to portions of northwest Utah including the Wasatch Front.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Mostly VFR conditions areawide besides some lingering MVFR across the far northeastern airspace as wrap-around precipitation continues through the afternoon. This will also lead to some mountain obscuration across the far northeast. Overall, the drying and clearing trend will continue as dry air moves into the airspace. Winds will remain light and variable across the area.

FIRE WEATHER

The storm system that brought wetting rain to northeast Utah will continue to exit to the northeast this afternoon into early this evening. As it does so, precipitation will gradually wind down. However, a few additional isolated and generally weak showers and thunderstorms may develop across northern and central Utah this afternoon behind the retreating swath of precipitation.

From Sunday through the rest of the coming week, expect drier conditions along with a warming trend as the storm track remains north of Utah. By the end of week, afternoon max temperatures will trend 5-15 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, afternoon min relative humidities will fall below 15% in most valleys from Tuesday onward, with increasingly poor overnight recoveries. Winds will likely remain on the light side through the period, but if any of the storms to the north end up amplifying more, then the potential for stronger southerly winds will exist, which could then bring critical fire weather conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.