textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring historically warm weather for March through Saturday. Daytime max temperatures will challenge monthly maximum temperature records as they approach 30 degrees above seasonal normals.

- A dry cold front will bring a brief cooling trend Sunday, though daytime highs will remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- A return to near record temperatures is expected early next week as high pressure returns to the region.

DISCUSSION

An anomalously strong mid level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will amplify somewhat Thursday into Friday, allowing for a slight warming trend from what are already record temperatures across the region. Cedar City tied their max temperature record for March at 81F this afternoon, while KSLC fell 1 degree short...reaching 79F. These are temperatures typically seen in early June, not mid-March.

NBM 5.0 25th-75th percentile max temperature forecast for KSLC trends 2-3F higher Thursday, and another 2-3F higher Friday as the ridge amplifies. With this additional warming, expect KSLC to at a minimum tie the monthly record of 80F on Thursday and break it Friday, while Cedar City will exceed the monthly record of 81F with an additional 3-4F warming expected on Thursday. For St George, we will have to wait for the coop observation to come in, but with an additional 2-4F of warming on Thursday, they will certainly break the previous monthly record of 91F for March.

A dry cold front will cool temperatures ~15F on Sunday across northern Utah, and 3-8F across southern Utah. Despite this, temperatures will remain well above normal for the latter portion of March. This "cool-down" will be short lived however, as mid level ridging quickly rebounds Monday, pushing temperatures back near record territory by Tuesday. Confidence is low beyond Wednesday next week in the overall pattern, as spread increases within the guidance owing to the potential for a shortwave trough to pass through the northern Rockies.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

Ongoing pattern dominated by high pressure will continue. Skies will be clear to mostly clear with VFR conditions prevailing. At most terminals winds will tend to be fairly light with diurnally typical direction shifts. Some higher elevation and exposed terminals (EVW) will see modest daytime wind gusts to around 25 kts or so.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ277.