textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds will continue dwindling this evening as mid-level winds gradually taper off.

- Following the passage of todays frontal boundary, temperatures will cool to near-normal tomorrow (Wednesday) before warming 10-15F above normal Thursday-Saturday.

- Another dry front will traverse the area late Saturday, cooling temperatures down to near-normal on Sunday. Following this, anomalously strong ridging will result in a notable warm-up starting Monday, continuing to warm through the week.

DISCUSSION

A few gusts nearing 40+ mph have been observed over the last hour across the Uinta Basin, Provo Canyon, and I-15 South at the border of Salt Lake and Provo Counties while everywhere else across the CWA has seen winds dwindle. This downtrend will continue as mid-level winds weaken further through the evening as high pressure builds into the area keeping conditions benign with clear skies expected on Wednesday. However, 500mb flow remains somewhat elevated across the region which will yield some stronger winds and gusts across our higher terrain tomorrow afternoon.

On Thursday, mid-level flow looks to strengthen once again with winds expected to mix down to the surface in the afternoon hours. This windy pattern is forecast to persist through at least Saturday evening as enhanced mid-level flow remains in place with the windiest day in this forecast appearing to be Saturday due to a deepening upper trough to our east. This will also be reinforced as a dry front traverses the area in the afternoon hours on Saturday. While valley locations sit well below wind advisory criteria at this time on Saturday (a near zero chance of gusts >45mph for 3+ hrs across valleys), a few higher elevation locations exhibit a roughly 40-60% chance of meeting wind advisory criteria (gusts >58mph for 3+ hrs across higher terrain) such as our central UT mountains, the Wasatch Plateau / Book Cliffs, High Uintas, and perhaps the Bear River Range. Additionally, there is a window Saturday afternoon where sustained winds could meet high wind warning criteria across Uinta County, WY (sustained winds > 40mph for at least an hr). Winds look to remain elevated across higher terrain from Sunday on, though are expected to remain below any headline criteria at this time.

Ensembles continue to hone in on a notably warm and dry period developing next week featuring temperatures we would expect to see near the end of spring into early summer as an anomalously strong ridge develops over the western U.S.. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain near-normal following the passage of Saturdays dry front before warming significantly. Temperatures across the majority of the state will warm to around 10-15F above normal with lower Washington county potentially reaching 15-20F above normal (80- 90% chance of temperatures reaching or exceeding 85F). It will only get warmer and drier through the week with Wednesday featuring a 50- 60% chance of reaching or exceeding 80F and a >95% chance of exceeding 90F across lower Washington County. This would smash the record for the earliest 80F day at KSLC, with the record earliest 80F day occurring on 3/31. Ensembles remain in great agreement that even past this 7 day forecast, temperatures will remain anomalously greater than normal across the forecast area with little to no precipitation in sight.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds this evening will gradually diminish overnight. Terrain driven winds can be expected Wednesday across the north with light northerly winds across southern Utah.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.