textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- A Pacific Northwest low will be the dominant weather feature over the region through the middle of the week. Pairing with an abundant amount of moisture from tropical cyclone remnants, widespread precipitation with an elevated potential for flash flooding along with cooler temperatures and lowering snow levels, bringing accumulating mountain snow is expected through at least Tuesday.

- Some outlying valleys, including the Cache Valley, may see freezing temperatures as early as Tuesday morning, with freezing temperatures becoming more widespread Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

- Conditions will steadily dry for the latter half of the week with a gradual warming trend in temperatures through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A slow moving Pacific storm system will begin to progress through the region over the next 48 hours, bringing continued rainfall and even some high elevation snowfall. Moisture from the recent tropical cyclone wrapping up in the larger scale low pressure system will help to maintain well above normal precipitation over the region and, with the increased instability overhead, will bring continued higher likelihood of showers and thunderstorms bringing moderate to heavy rainfall. Throughout the remainder of the day, persistent light to moderate rainfall across northern Utah will bring a minor risk for areal flooding in poor drainage areas and steep rocky terrain (in addition to recent burn scars). For southern and central Utah, the risk of flash flooding due to short-lived moderate to heavy rainfall will remain elevated if convection is not entirely muted by cloud cover. As is the case with typical flash flood potential in southern Utah, the highest risk will be found in slot canyons, slickrock areas, dry washes, and recent burn scars.

Through the evening and overnight hours the center of the low will begin to creep into the forecast area, introducing much cooler air to the beehive state. As this colder air filters into the region, snow levels will begin dropping from around 9,500ft (as of this afternoon) down to around 7,500-8,000ft by Tuesday morning. An area of precipitation is expected to be maintained along this boundary of colder air (not quite a well defined cold front), and with snow levels dropping as the colder air oozes into the region snowfall is expected to pick up in intensity in the higher elevations (as well as dropping to lower elevations within the mountains). For seasonal roads that remain open (e.g. Guardsman Pass and Bald Mountain pass), accumulating snowfall may pose a significant risk to travelers who are not prepared.

The center of this area of low pressure will begin to exit the region through the day on Wednesday, allowing for improving conditions areawide. That said, there is some relative uncertainty revolving around how quickly this low pressure moves out of the region which will ultimately affect how quickly we warm up and dry out. That said, there is generally high confidence in a ridge building into the area late in the week and over the weekend, bringing an overall pleasant weekend after a wet start to the week.

AVIATION

KSLC...MVFR conditions with pockets of VFR will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Showers will continue across the terminal through 03Z with a lull overnight, but widespread showers and rain return tomorrow ~17Z. CIGs will remain low with mountain obscuration. Northerly winds will persist through the early evening before a transition to southerly winds overnight, but there is ~30% chance winds will just remain northerly.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Primarily MVFR conditions will persist across the entire airspace through the period. Widespread rain with pockets of convection will persist through this evening across the entire airspace with lowered CIGs and mountain obscuration. There will be a relative lull, but not completely dry, overnight before more widespread showers with embedded convection redevelop during the day tomorrow across the entire airspace. Winds will be light and variable across the area.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 149 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A slow moving low pressure system combined with ample moisture across the region will continue to bring widespread wetting rains through Tuesday. As this low slowly makes its way through the region, cooler air will lower snow levels into the 7000 to 8000 foot range tonight through Tuesday. With widespread precipitation along with cooler air spreading into the region, temperatures will remain well below normal through midweek along with high relative humidity. Precipitation may linger into the day Wednesday as this low pressure system begins to exit the region. High pressure will bring a warming and drying trend for the latter portion of the week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ101>131.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ111.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ112.

WY...None.