textproduct: Salt Lake City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry this weekend with moisture increasing for early next week resulting in more high-based convection.

- Temperatures climb to around 5 degrees above normal by early next week with up to a 30% chance of reaching our first 100 degree day of the year at KSLC.

DISCUSSION

A zonal flow pattern is setting up over Utah this evening allowing drier air to spread into the area. Most of the convection from earlier today over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming have dissipated, leaving some patchy midlevel clouds which should gradually clear overnight. With said drier air moving in, convection on Saturday and even most of Sunday afternoon will trend weaker compared to today and will largely become confined to over and near the Uinta Mountains and southwest Wyoming. Temperatures will also trend warmer through the weekend.

On Sunday, high pressure is still forecast to set up near the Four Corners area, and the resulting southerly flow will spread midlevel moisture into the area. However, the bulk of the moisture on Sunday will remain largely over AZ and NM, while a weak disturbance being the remnants of an eastern Pac tropical system looks to lift across CA and western NV, bringing another area of moisture to that area. Latest NBM mean PWATs only reach 0.6 inches across far southern Utah by late Sunday afternoon. As such, expect little more than very isolated high-based convection to develop over southern Utah late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Moisture will peak on Monday, but even then, the NBM mean PWATs across the forecast area are only in the 0.6-0.75 inch range (and still remaining under an inch at the 90th percentile with a range of 0.8-0.9 inches). Thereafter, the high pressure will shift westward through midweek, bringing a drier westerly flow back to Utah. Given this pattern, expect areal coverage of convection to peak on Monday, and even then, it does not look like more than scattered coverage. Then, convection should decrease a bit Tuesday before trending more isolated for Wednesday. With the short duration of the moisture advection, it is unlikely that moisture will be deep enough to produce significant rainfall, with convection remaining mainly high-based and producing gusty outflow winds. There are some fire weather concerns with dry lighting and outflows, but that ultimately depends of how widespread the convection becomes.

Temperatures through next week will largely trend near steady or slightly warmer each day. With lower Washington County and the Lake Powell area seeing temperatures of 102-107 through the week and a few northern and central Utah valley sites near or exceeding 100 degrees, heat will start to become a concern, especially with overnight mins trending warmer as well. Moderate HeatRisk becomes widespread across the valleys for the middle to latter portion of next week, with some pockets of Major HeatRisk late week.

AVIATION...KSLC

Conditions anticipated to remain largely non- impactful. Winds expected to follow a diurnally normal pattern with S winds shifting NW by around 18-20Z Sat, and back S 03-05Z Sun. Magnitudes will generally remain below 10 kts. A few mid/high level clouds will filter through, but conditions remain VFR.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Weather pattern to remain minimally active across the region, with just some mid/high level cloud cover at area terminals, and prevailing VFR conditions. Winds will largely follow a diurnally typical directional pattern with magnitudes less than 15 kts. Some modest gusts up to 25 kts may mix into more exposed or high elevation terminals like EVW/CDC.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 113 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Locally critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon across southern and southeastern Utah with isolated wind gusts as high as 30 mph and poor RH. Storms near the Idaho and Wyoming border will pose a threat for some lightning and gusty outflow winds this afternoon. High pressure builds in this weekend that will weaken wind gusts and make for drier conditions. Moisture, winds, and temperatures increase early next week as the ridge matures.

Diurnal convection, primarily across the terrain, will develop next week with a threat for more lightning and gusty winds. Moisture levels will be marginal, limiting the wetting rain potential. High pressure will gradually slide further southwest through midweek gradually decreasing mid-level moisture.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.