textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions will continue across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the week. Under these conditions, unsecured items could blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds are producing choppy to rough seas across the Offshore Atlantic and Caribbean waters, as well as in local passages. Small craft operators should continue to exercise caution. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

* Life-threatening rip currents are possible at most local beaches throughout the week. Currently, the rip current risk is moderate, but it is forecast to become high by midweek as winds and seas increase. Residents and visitors should avoid swimming at unguarded beaches.

Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

Cloud cover remained minimal during the morning, with mostly clear skies across much of the region. Only a few passing low-level clouds were observed across eastern Puerto Rico and Culebra, embedded within the brisk east-southeasterly flow. The limited cloud development also aid to no shower activity across the islands in the morning hours. Overall, fair weather prevailed, with windy conditions persisting across the islands through much of the morning and into the afternoon. According to unofficial weather stations, sustained winds ranged between 20 and 22 mph, with gusts frequently reaching 25 to 30 mph, particularly across coastal areas and exposed locations. The strongest gusts were observed along eastern and southern Puerto Rico, as well as across Culebra and portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

For tonight, mostly stable conditions will remain in place as a broad surface high-pressure system across the Atlantic Basin extends into the Caribbean, and a significant dry air mass with precipitable water values of 0.79, as shown in the GOES Satellite-derived Imagery, moves in, eroding moisture and limiting showers. On Monday, this broad surface high pressure will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the region, resulting in moderate to locally strong east-southeasterly winds through tonight and into Monday. Under this pattern, the islands will continue to experience passing patches of shallow moisture, with precipitable water values near climatological levels (1.23 in), moving in and out of the area, promoting brief, fast-moving showers at times, mainly across windward and coastal sections. Despite these passing showers, overall conditions will remain fairly stable. At the mid levels, warmer temperatures around 500 mb will support a stable atmospheric profile aloft, limiting vertical development and reducing the potential for widespread or organized convection. On Tuesday, a similar weather pattern is expected to persist, with the strong, broad surface high pressure system extending upward through approximately 700 mb. This will continue to promote windy conditions across the local islands. Sustained winds are forecast to range from 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts likely, particularly along coastal areas and at higher elevations. The combination of a tight pressure gradient and a relatively dry, stable mid-level environment will favor mainly fair skies, with occasional passing showers embedded within the trade wind flow. Overall, breezy to windy conditions will remain the dominant feature of the forecast, with minimal shower activity.

Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

By midweek, a series of high-pressure systems will remain over the Atlantic, maintaining a prevailing northeasterly wind flow throughout the forecast period. The pressure gradient across the region will tighten, resulting in breezy to windy conditions. Consequently, winds will be the primary weather concern during the long-term period. Wind risk levels are expected to fluctuate from limited to elevated, particularly along coastal areas of the islands. Residents are advised to secure loose outdoor objects, as items may be displaced or damaged by strong winds.

The latest model guidance indicates that moisture content will remain fragmented and variable on Wednesday and Thursday, fluctuating between near-seasonal levels and slightly above normal as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow. Precipitable water values are forecast to range between 1.20 and 1.60 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers, especially during the overnight and morning hours across windward areas, followed by limited afternoon convection over interior and western Puerto Rico each day. Showers are expected to be fast-moving, reducing the flood risk. From Thursday night into Friday, moisture levels and upper-level dynamics are expected to become more favorable as reflected in higher rain chances, potentially leading to an increase in the frequency or intensity of showers Friday into the weekend. Model guidance suggest PWAT values will become more stable, around 1.6 inches each day. Additionally, moisture slightly increase into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Although strong winds should limit rainfall accumulation and reduce flood potential, current data supports a limited flood threat for eastern Puerto Rico on Friday morning. Showers may result in ponding of water in areas of poor drainage. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail, with passing showers primarily during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also remain a primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the islands.

The 925 mb temperature outlook suggests temperatures will be near the average for this time of the year based on climatological data.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites, with mainly a few clouds moving through the area under an E-SE flow. Ceilings are expected to remain well above 3,000 feet, with good visibility prevailing across the terminals. Windy conditions will continue, with sustained winds around 12 to 15 knots and occasional higher gusts, particularly at coastal exposed terminals. Winds are expected to remain up to 15 kn through approximately 01/23Z, gradually decreasing, before increasing again around 02/12Z.

MARINE

Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

A broad surface high pressure across most of the Atlantic basin will continue to tighten the local pressure gradient, promoting fresh to locally strong east-southeast winds through midweek. Although this high will remain in place, another surface high will build over the western Atlantic on Monday and continue to migrate toward the central Atlantic through Thursday, sustaining fresh to strong winds. Expect winds to become east-northeasterly from Wednesday onwards. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas across the regional waters throughout the week, especially across the Atlantic and Caribbean Offshore waters and local passages. Small craft operators should continue to exercise caution across all local waters.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 133 PM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

Breezy conditions will persist throughout the week. The breezy to locally windy conditions will continue to result in choppy to rough seas, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents across all beaches of PR (except the west coast) and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Therefore, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected to persist across much of the local beaches of the islands. Life- threatening rip currents remain possible, particularly near piers, jetties, and reef channels.

Looking ahead, confused seas due to fresh to strong trade winds and a northeast to easterly swell will likely further deteriorate coastal conditions and potentially increase the risk of dangerous rip currents, particularly along north and east-facing beaches of the islands from midweek onwards.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Monday for AMZ711-723-733- 741.