textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

* East to southeast winds will bring passing showers to windward areas through Monday, with isolated afternoon showers possible across interior and western Puerto Rico.

* There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands.

* Sunny skies and southeasterly winds will promote near to above normal temperatures across the lower elevations of the islands.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, breezy condition and passing showers are expected during the morning and early afternoon hours.

Short Term(Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Mostly clear skies prevailed across the islands during the overnight and early morning hours. Showers were noted mainly across the local waters. Minimum temperatures were from the upper 50s across the higher elevations of Puerto Rico to the low 70s across the lower elevations of the islands. The wind was from the east at 10 mph or less. A drier air mass will continue to filter over PR during the morning hours, and mostly sunny skies are expected to prevail. However, across the U.S. Virgin Islands, an area of low-level clouds with scattered showers currently over the Leeward Islands, will promote partly sunny skies and quick passing showers through the early afternoon hours.

A low-to mid-level ridge will move over the region today, promoting fair weather conditions across the islands in general. This ridge will continue to move eastward into the central Atlantic by Tuesday, and similar weather conditions are expected on Monday, as overall drier air with PWAT content btw 1-1.25 inches and stable conditions aloft prevail over the northeastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, winds will gradually shift from the southeast through at least early Tuesday, when a col area and pre-frontal trough develops over the local area. This will bring a significant surge in moisture content compared to previous days, as PWAT increases to 1.75 inches, and the associated upper level trough promotes colder 500 mb temps near -9C. Therefore, expect showers to increase in coverage and intensity, with possible isolated thunderstorm development.

High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the lower elevations of the islands, to the mid 70s across the higher elevations. Minimum temperatures under mostly clear skies are expected to range from the upper 50s across the higher elevations of PR, to the upper 60s and low 70s across the lower elevations. Breezy conditions are expected today with east to southeast winds ranging between 15 and 20 mph. Lighter winds are expected on Tuesday, with with sea/land breezes dominating the flow.

Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)

Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Unstable conditions are expected at the beginning of the long-term period as a pre-frontal trough associated with an approaching frontal boundary moves northwest of the area and north of Hispaniola. By Wednesday, the surface influence of the frontal band will persist, bringing abundant moisture and cloudiness into the region with precipitable water values rounding in the 1.7 inches. At the upper and mid-levels, a 65-knot jet streak aloft and mid- level temperatures between -8 and -9 C will further enhance atmospheric instability. As a result, widespread cloudiness is expected across northern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with thunderstorm activity possible within the heaviest showers. From Thursday into Friday, lingering moisture associated with the remnants of the frontal boundary will remain in place; however, high pressure over the central Atlantic will gradually become the dominant weather feature. As this high strengthens and extends into the Caribbean, the pressure gradient will tighten, leading to moderate to locally strong easterly winds from Thursday through Sunday. Although shower activity will continue, faster steering flow will promote quick-moving showers with minimal rainfall accumulations, and no flood threat is anticipated.

From Saturday into Sunday, a more stable weather pattern will return to the local area as the surface high strengthens over the Central Atlantic and a mid-to upper-level ridge becomes established across the region. Although moisture associated with the previous frontal boundary will have moved out of the area, wind-advected cloudiness and patches of moisture driven by a strong pressure gradient across the Central Atlantic will continue to reach the islands. Model guidance suggests precipitable water values may surpass the 75th percentile during this period, supporting a showery pattern despite the generally stable regime. As a result, breezy to locally windy conditions are expected under a persistent easterly wind flow, with fast-moving trade wind showers affecting windward portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the early morning hours, followed by afternoon convection across the interior and western Puerto Rico. This pattern of breezy conditions and passing showers is expected to persist through the end of the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. Mostly VCSH expected across the area terminals throughout the day. East-southeast winds increasing between 12 and 16 kt with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations aft 22/14z.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain moderate to locally fresh east to east-southeast winds across the regional waters through today. Winds will gradually shift from the southeast and south on Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the arrival of the front will increase shower activity, with few to isolated thunderstorms possible. A long-period north-northwest swell is expected to move into the local Atlantic waters by the middle of next week, deteriorating marine conditions and building seas up to 8 feet through the later part of the week. Mariners should monitor later forecasts for updates on increasing seas and changing weather conditions.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

The rip current risk is moderate across most local beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, except along the south to southwest coast of PR, where the risk remains low. Similar beach/rip current conditions are expected to persist through at least Tuesday.

A long-period northwesterly swell arrive across the local waters, deteriorating coastal conditions by Wednesday. This swell will result in life-threathening rip currents along the northern coasts of the islands. Beachgoers and unexperienced surfers are urged to stay out of the water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local advisories, warnings, and lifeguard and official guidance. For more specific location information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...None. VI...None. AM...None.