textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 PM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

* Choppy marine conditions will continue due to breezy winds, with gradual improvement through midweek as winds ease.

* Hazardous seas and coastal conditions may return late next weekend as long-period northerly swell combines with an approaching frontal boundary, potentially affecting regional waters and exposed coastlines.

* Passing showers will affect the islands at times through the week, with a low risk of minor flooding, mainly in urban and poor- drainage areas.

* Rainfall coverage and intensity are expected to increase late next weekend as moisture increases ahead of a weakening front, with localized heavy rainfall possible.

Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 240 PM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands experienced mostly sunny skies early today, but a surge of moisture quickly increased cloud cover and brought showers to the area. These rains were moderate to locally heavy at times, leading to some water ponding on roadways throughout the morning. High temperatures stayed in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, while winds out from the east to east-southeast at 15 to 20 mph. Residents likely noticed stronger gusts and shifts in the breeze due to local sea-breeze variations.

Tonight through Wednesday, high pressure will maintain a steady breeze across the region. Winds will remain near normal, between 10 and 20 mph, though they will be locally stronger in some areas. Over the next few days, expect these winds to slowly diminish in intensity.

A ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere will limit the potential for thunderstorms; however, local effects, such as sea breeze, topography, and daytime heating, will still trigger shower formation each day. These showers are most likely across the interior and western Puerto Rico during the afternoon and evening hours. While the risk of flooding is currently marginal to none, these passing showers will move quickly enough to cause occasional water ponding on roadways.

By Wednesday, although patches of drier air will move in, resulting in mostly fair weather across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, we cannot rule out occasional moisture, bringing a few isolated, brief showers.

The southeast wind flow will also push temperatures above normal. Expect highs between 87 and 89 degrees in coastal areas. Overnight lows will remain comfortable, staying in the 70s along the coast and dipping into the 60s in the mountains.

LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)

Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

The overall synoptic pattern will remain largely unchanged through the early part of the period. Ridging aloft will persist across the region through at least Friday, while limited low-level moisture supports generally fair weather conditions. As a result, stable conditions are expected to continue, with only brief passing showers mainly driven by patches of moisture streaming across the area from time to time.

Changes in the pattern become more noticeable toward the latter part of the weekend. Global model guidance continues to suggest increasing moisture associated with a weakening frontal boundary, although the timing of this feature has been pushed back. Moisture advection from the south ahead of the approaching boundary remains a consistent signal among global models, particularly by late Sunday. This increase in moisture, combined with modest instability, will support a higher frequency of showers, especially across the Caribbean waters and western sections of Puerto Rico. The Galvez- Davison Index indicates elevated values near the frontal boundary, suggesting an increased potential for heavy rainfall-producing thunderstorms approaching from the west as the boundary nears the islands.

Potential impacts by the end of the period include periods of locally heavy rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, and ponding of water in poor drainage areas, with a limited risk of urban and small- stream flooding. Gusty wind conditions may also accompany convective activity, particularly near thunderstorms.

Southeasterly to southerly low-level flow ahead of the boundary will develop late by the end of the week into the weekend, promoting above normal temperatures across the islands.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 240 PM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. VCSH or -SHRA possible across TJBQ over the next few hours. Aft 27/06-09Z, showers are expected across USVI TAF sites, then moving to TJSJ during the morning hours. Some periods of reduced VIS and low cigs can be anticipated. Winds from the E-SE at around 15 kts with higher gusts, generally becoming lighter after 26/22Z, then picking up again around 27/13-14Z.

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

A strong high-pressure system will keep a frontal boundary to the west of the Northeast Caribbean until it eventually fades. This system will strengthen local winds, bringing moderate to fresh easterly winds, and causing choppy seas through much of the workweek. While a small northerly swell is expected around Thursday, a second, long-period northeasterly swell could arrive by the weekend or early next week.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 240 PM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Breezy conditions continue across the regional waters, maintaining choppy seas and a moderate risk of rip currents along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. Over the next few days, winds are expected to gradually subside through the week, however a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents is expected to prevail across exposed beaches. Hazardous coastal conditions may return late next weekend, please continue to monitor the forecast updates. For localized and updated rip current risk information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...None. VI...None. AM...None.