textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 PM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

* An elevated risk of urban and small stream flooding is expected along the interior and southwestern sections of Puerto Rico. Avoid visiting rivers and driving along flooded roadways.

* Showers will continue tonight across the U.S. Virgin Islands, and over portions of eastern PR. Ponding of water on roadways and low-lying areas is anticipated with this activity.

* Hazardous seas for small craft expected across the offshore Atlantic waters through Monday

* Life-threatening rip currents expected to continue along the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John.

Short Term(This afternoon through Tuesday)

Issued at 1230 PM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

A lingering frontal boundary over the region brought showers and weak thunderstorms early in the morning hours across the northern half of Puerto Rico. The Doppler radar estimated between 2 and 4 inches of rain with this rainfall activity. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, an increase in cloudiness and showers was noted during the day, with estimated rainfall accumulations up to half an inch, and mainly in St. Thomas. For the rest of the afternoon hours, additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Cordillera Central and portions of south- southwest Puerto Rico. Therefore, the flood threat will remain elevated in general for Puerto Rico through at least this evening, as moisture associated to the front remains over the area. High temperatures were from the upper 70s to the low 80s across the lower elevations to the upper 60s and low 70s across the higher elevations.

Behind the front, a surface high pressure is expected to move over the central Atlantic by Monday, and winds will gradually turn east to southeast through Tuesday. A weak upper level ridge will promote somewhat stable conditions early in the week, and drier air intrusion at the mid-levels. Dew point depressions at the lower levels are expected to suppress convective development. However, trade wind showers will move at times during the night across the windward areas of the islands, and locally induced afternoon showers cannot be ruled out over west/southwest PR each day. The southerly winds will bring warmer than normal temperatures, particularly on Tuesday.

Long Term(Wednesday through next Sunday)

From previous discussion issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

The long-term period will begin with a passing upper-level short- wave trough and associated zonal jet support moving across the region. This feature will briefly promote slightly cooler-than- normal mid-level temperatures and modest instability early in the period. However, moisture will remain shallow and largely confined below 700 mb, with persistent dry air aloft limiting vertical development. By late week, deep-layer high pressure will build, gradually stabilizing conditions. As this high strengthens and shifts eastward through the weekend into early next week, the local pressure gradient will tighten before relaxing, resulting in strengthening easterly winds that later veer to the southeast and weaken. Mid-level temperatures will warm back to near normal by late week and trend slightly above normal at times early next week, while low-level temperatures respond to the developing southeasterly flow with a gradual warming trend.

In terms of hazards and sensible weather, shower activity will remain limited throughout the period due to shallow moisture and a persistent trade wind inversion. Expect mainly brief overnight and morning trade-wind showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by isolated afternoon convection over interior and western Puerto Rico. Flooding concerns are expected to remain low given limited moisture depth and dry mid-level conditions. The primary hazard focus will shift to wind-related impacts late in the week and over the weekend, as fresh to locally strong easterly winds promote breezy periods across coastal and elevated areas. Early next week, winds will veer to the southeast and gradually weaken, while above-normal temperatures become more likely under continued generally stable conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

Frontal boundary across the region will continue to result in intermittent periods of -SHRA and BKN cigs over the local terminals. Max tops are currently around 15 kft. However, TSRA is expected to develop btw 15/18-22z over portions of the Cordillera and SW PR, which could impact operations at TJPS. The 15/12z TJSJ sounding indicated NE winds up to 21 kt blo FL100.

MARINE

Issued at 1230 PM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

A cold front over the northeast Caribbean will promote moderate to locally fresh northeast to east-northeast winds through at least Monday. This front will result in increasing cloud cover and rain chances as well as isolated thunderstorms. A long-period northerly swell will spread across the Atlantic waters and passages through early Monday morning, building seas up to 7 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters. A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will then promote east to southeast winds through midweek. Another long-period northerly swell will arrive during the second part of the workweek, bringing hazardous seas once again by Thursday.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 1230 PM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

A High Rip Current Risk is now in effect for the north facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John. This is due to life-threatening rip currents caused by the combination of the increasing northeasterly winds and a northerly swell. Beach goers are urged to exercise caution, and avoid swimming in beaches without lifeguards. Also, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over portions of the southwestern coast of PR, increasing the risk of cloud to ground lightning and brief gusty winds.

Seas and winds are expected to improve gradually on Monday, and a moderate risk of rip currents expected along the north and east facing beaches of the islands.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Monday for AMZ711.