textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions will develop today as a long- period northerly swell arrives. Small Craft Advisories, High Surf Advisories, and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect.

* Large breaking waves can wash over rocks and jetties, and rip currents can quickly pull swimmers away from shore. Rough surf may cause beach erosion and hazardous conditions for small boats.

* This afternoon, showers are expected across the interior and western parts of Puerto Rico. Most activity should be brief and localized. While widespread flooding is not expected, ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas is possible where heavier showers occur.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, hazardous beach conditions will develop today through Friday. Therefore, a High Rip Current Risk is in effect for St. Thomas and St. John. A few passing showers are possible overnight and early in the morning, followed by generally fair weather each afternoon.

Short Term(Today through Saturday)

Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

A gradual transition toward a more stable pattern is underway across the northeastern Caribbean as mid-level ridging builds from the west and previous troughiness aloft continues to shift eastward. GOES satellite imagery already shows increasing subsidence moving into the region. Model guidance indicates 500 mb temperatures warming to above-normal values through the period, along with less steep 700- 500 mb lapse rates. This will promote a more stable environment overall compared to recent days.

During the morning hours, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected, with passing showers moving across windward coastal areas of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As the day progresses, diurnal heating combined with sea breeze convergence and local effects will support the development of convective activity. However, strengthening ridging aloft and warmer mid-level temperatures should limit vertical growth, resulting in mostly shallow convection. Showers are expected to develop primarily across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours.

Although convection is forecast to be less vigorous, localized urban and small stream flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly across the interior and western municipalities of Puerto Rico, where soils remain saturated, and streamflows are elevated in those areas. Ponding of water on roadways and in poorly drained areas will be possible in areas that receive repeated showers. Generally, the flooding threat appears to be limited.

On Friday and Saturday, mid-level ridging is expected to strengthen further, promoting continued stabilization. Overnight and morning hours will feature passing trade wind showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers over the interior and western parts of Puerto Rico, driven by local effects. Activity should remain mostly shallow due to subsidence aloft. Overall, mostly fair weather conditions are anticipated through the end of the short-term period.

Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)

Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

To start the next week, southeasterly steering flow will bring patches of moisture to the region with Precipitable Water (PWAT) values at normal to slightly above normal for this time of the year. Patches of drier air with seasonal to below seasonal PWAT will also reach the region. As a frontal boundary approaches by mid week, steering flow will back to become more easterly and promote an increase in available moisture and PWAT values late Wednesday and Thursday. A surface high over the southwestern to central Atlantic will gradually move away from the region to start the week as a frontal low moves over the western Atlantic. However, another surface high will move into the western to central Atlantic by midweek. Upper level ridging will also be displaced out of the region to start the week with a deep layer trough will possibly approach the region by the latter half of the long term period. Available moisture can reach above 700 mb to the mid to upper levels, with cooler mid level temps and general instability. Overnight and morning shower activity over windward sectors of the islands and afternoon showers over sectors of the interior to W-NW PR, as well as lines of showers from the local islands and el Yunque are forecast under the southeasterly flow. Under the more easterly flow by midweek and increased moisture this pattern could be enhanced with afternoon convection over interior to western PR. Seasonal to above seasonal 925 mb temperatures are forecast for the long term period, particularly to start the next workweek.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals through the forecast period. No significant weather impacts are expected during the morning hours. Aft 19/17Z, SHRA may develop across the interior and western PR. Trade wind showers will likely promote -SHRA/VCSH at TJSJ, TIST, and TISX aft 19/23Z. Sfc winds will be from the E-ENE at 8-15 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations aft 19/14Z. The 19/00Z TJSJ sounding indicated ENE winds up to 17 kt blo FL050.

MARINE

Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

A surface high pressure building over the Western Atlantic will promote light to moderate easterly winds today and Friday, becoming moderate to locally fresh by Friday night. A long-period northerly swell will continue to spread across the local Atlantic waters and passages today and Friday. Combined with strengthening winds, confused moderate to rough seas will result in hazardous seas for small craft. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect over the Atlantic offshore and coastal waters through late Friday night. A gradual improvement in marine conditions is expected later in the weekend.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

Beach conditions are gradually deteriorating as a long-period northerly swell spreads across the local Atlantic waters and passages today. Based on the latest model guidance and NDBC buoy observations, breaking waves are expected between 6 and 8 feet, increasing up to 10 and 12 feet by noon today. Hence, high surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents are expected along the beaches from northwest to northeastern Puerto Rico, including Culebra, and St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands. A High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk Statements are in effect.

Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to stay out of the water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local officials as conditions deteriorate.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for PRZ001-002-005-008- 010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Friday night for AMZ711- 712.