textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

* Mostly fair and stable weather conditions are expected through Friday, with brief morning showers across eastern areas of Puerto Rico and the USVI, and afternoon showers developing over western and northwestern Puerto Rico; minor ponding on roads is possible.

* There is an increasing risk of urban and small stream flooding from the weekend into early next week with the approach of a frontal boundary from the west of the region.

* A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for the beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety.

* For boaters, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the northern offshore waters through tonight.

Short Term(Today through Saturday)

Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

A moist shallow layer up to 8kft brought mostly cloudy skies overnight and light passing showers across the regional waters. Minor rainfall accumulations were observed over portions of the USVI and eastern PR. Minimum temperatures were from the low and mid 70s across the lower elevations to the low 60s across the higher elevations. The wind was light and variable over land areas. For the rest of the morning hours passing showers will continue to move at times across the east and southern portions of PR, followed by moderate to locally heavy showers developing over the NW quadrant of PR this afternoon. The precipitable water content is expected to fluctuate between 1.00-1.50 inches through the rest of the short term period.

For Friday, a weak induced surface trough will bring another surge in low-level moisture content, enhancing morning showers across the USVI and inducing the development of shallow afternoon convection over the mountain ranges of PR. Winds are expected to turn more southerly by Friday under the influence of a weak surface high pressure east of the region and frontal boundary to our north. These winds are expected to steer showers across the northern coastal areas of PR late in the afternoon hours.

A gradual trend into a wetter pattern is still expected for Saturday as pooling of moisture continues across the eastern Caribbean under a deep layer southerly wind flow. The flood risk is expected to increase in general during the weekend, residents and visitors are urged to monitor the weather conditions.

Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)

Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

The long-term forecast remains tied to a frontal boundary lingering over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The latest global models continue to suggest an increase in precipitable water content to between 2.00 and 2.25 inches, well above climatological normals, from Sunday through midweek.

At the upper levels, the region will remain positioned between a trough over the western Atlantic and a ridge to the southeast through late Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on the exact placement and evolution of these features, the combination of upper-level dynamics and persistent low-level moisture convergence along the frontal boundary will support widespread rainfall. This activity is expected to increase in coverage from Sunday through Tuesday across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Given the anticipated atmospheric setup, there is a significant potential for heavy rainfall across the area beginning early next week. As the front approaches on Sunday and Monday, the influx of Caribbean moisture, south-southeasterly winds, daytime heating, and local orographic effects will likely trigger heavy rain across portions of northwestern and northern Puerto Rico. As the front passes over the islands, winds will shift from the north, pushing rainfall activity toward the eastern, southeastern, and southern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from late Monday through Wednesday.

Potential impacts include ponding of water on roadways, urban and small-stream flooding, and localized flash flooding. Isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds cannot be ruled out with the heavier shower activity. In general, weather conditions are expected to remain unsettled, with the primary concerns being above-normal rainfall and localized flooding potential through at least Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hrs. However, SCT/BKN cigs btw FL030-060 should continue over the PR terminals through the mid-morning hours with mostly VCSH expected. Afternoon SHRA expected in and around TJBQ fm 29/18-23z, causing tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds. Low-level winds will continue ESE at 8-12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts aft 29/14z.

MARINE

Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Light to moderate easterly winds will prevail through the end of the week as surface high pressure shifts eastward, with seas generally subsiding across the local waters with the exception of some pulses of swell arriving from time to time.

By Monday, a northwesterly to northerly long- period swell is expected to reach the regional waters, combining with increasing winds to produce choppy to rough seas and potentially hazardous marine conditions, including Small Craft Advisory criteria across the offshore Atlantic waters and passages. An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is also expected from this weekend into early next week, especially over the northwestern Atlantic waters and the Mona Passage, with lightning and gusty winds possible.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Pulses of weak northerly swells will continue to affect the Atlantic waters through the remainder of the week, with the strongest pulse expected this afternoon. A high rip current risk is in effect for the beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through tonight. Beachgoers are encouraged to monitor the forecast for updates and changing conditions. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety.

Residents and visitors should also note that beach conditions may further deteriorate early next week due to increasing winds and the arrival of a stronger northwesterly to northerly long-period swell, potentially leading to hazardous beach conditions. Additionally, a change in the weather pattern may bring showers and thunderstorms from this weekend into early next week, increasing risks for beachgoers.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ711.