textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Above-normal temperatures and elevated heat indices are expected today, mainly across coastal areas, lowlands, interior valleys, and urban zones. A Heat Advisory is in effect today from 10 AM to 5 PM AST.

- Breezy southeast winds will persist today, then gradually decrease by Sunday. Unsecured items could blow around.

- Generally fair weather conditions are expected across all the islands throughout the weekend, with just passing showers across windward areas of PR today. By early next week, expect an increase in morning passing showers and afternoon activity across western PR.

- Life-threatening rip currents will remain possible (moderate risk) today across all local beaches of PR and USVI. By early next week, the moderate risk will persist along north-exposed beaches.

Short Term(Today through Monday)

Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

During the overnight period, quick-moving, isolated showers have been streaming from the Caribbean waters into southern and interior portions of Puerto Rico. This activity has been accompanied by clear to partly cloudy skies as showers move on and off across the islands. Surface observations registered above- normal minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across coastal areas and in the 60s to 70s across mountainous regions. Southeast winds are generally between 5 and 12 mph across most areas, with slightly higher and gustier conditions across higher elevations.

A broad surface high pressure across the central Atlantic and its interaction with a frontal boundary over the western Atlantic will support a tight pressure gradient across the eastern Caribbean, promoting breezy southeast winds through at least today. Unsecured items could be blown around. Winds are expected to gradually return to normal by Sunday and into early next week. Aloft, a mid to upper-level ridge persisting over the region will maintain subsidence and dry air aloft, suppressing significant rainfall development across the islands.

Today, a slight increase in low-level moisture associated with a patch of moisture moving from the Caribbean into the islands will raise PWAT values to around 1.6 to 1.8 inches, which is considered seasonal for this time of year. This will result in showers throughout the day, mainly across southern portions of Puerto Rico. Showers should remain shallow and quick-moving, reducing the potential for significant accumulations and flooding. Diurnal heating and local effects could trigger isolated showers across northwestern Puerto Rico, but the overall chance remains very low. The main weather hazard today will be the heat due to the combination of moisture, southeast to south winds, and above- normal temperatures. These conditions will likely result in periods of elevated heat indices, mainly across coastal areas, lowlands, interior valleys, and urban zones. Minimum temperatures are already above normal, so the day will start on the warm side. A Heat Advisory is in effect today from 10 AM to 5 PM AST. Stay hydrated and try to limit sun exposure during peak heating hours.

Sunday is expected to be the most stable day of the forecast period, with the arrival of a drier air mass containing around 1.2 inches of precipitable water. Conditions will be mainly dominated by periods of sunshine and warm temperatures. By early next week, the weather will be influenced by easterly disturbances bringing pulses of moisture into the islands, with PWAT values returning to seasonal levels. However, the mid-level ridge will weaken slightly but will continue to promote moderate subsidence at the mid levels, which may limit deeper convection. Overall, expect morning showers across windward sections and localized afternoon convection over the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico, driven by an easterly wind flow.

Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)

Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

Seasonal conditions will prevail during the long-term period. Mid- level ridging will continue to warm up temperatures and weaken the lapse rates at these levels as well as promote subsidence and dry air aloft. This will act to limit the development of deep convective cells across the islands. Moisture availability with below-to- average precipitable water (PWAT) values and lower values of mid- level relative humidity will also act to reduce widespread convection across the CWA. Thus, any activity that develops will be driven by diurnal heating, available moisture and local effects. The trade winds will bring light to locally breezy conditions through the long-term period. The flow will shift from an ENE on Tuesday and gradually shift to be from the ESE to the SE from Wednesday onwards. Thus, afternoon rainfall and thunderstorm activity will occur across the west, western interior and southwestern regions of Puerto Rico on Tuesday with the focus shifting to the west, western interior, and northwestern regions from Wednesday until Saturday. Afternoon showers from streamers from El Yunque and the smaller islands will also impact the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Each night and morning advective showers will develop and affect the offshore waters, the U.S. Virgin Islands as well as southeastern and eastern Puerto Rico.

Thus, some of the main risks for the long-term period remain associated to excessive rainfall, lightning and heating. Where frequent downpours occur, ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas as well as a low chance of urban and small streams flooding is possible. If storms develop in your vicinity be prepared to seek shelter. In addition, the 925 mb temperatures will be above average but will not exceed the two standard deviations above the normal levels. This in combination to available moisture and reduced cloud cover will lead to a level of heat that affects those individuals extremely sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Individuals are invited to remain weather ready and updated with the latest forecasts as they become available.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

Mainly VFR conditions across al TAF sites thru the fcst period. Passing VCSH/-RA more likely at TJPS today, but overall no significant wx impacts. SE to S winds around 10 to 15 kt will prevail, with sea breeze variations and gusts up to 18-22 kt aft 14/13-14Z, becoming around 10 kt or less overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

A surface high-pressure extending from the east to the central Atlantic Ocean is promoting a fresh to strong SSE breeze across the local waters. This will lead to choppy to locally high seas from today into Saturday. By Sunday the SSE breeze will become moderate to locally fresh and lead to moderate to choppy seas. With wave heights ranging from 3 to 6 feet and occasionally reaching 6 to 8 feet across the offshore waters and local passages. Conditions will gradually improve into early next week but will still remain breezy. Showers and thunderstorm activity may produce locally higher winds and seas.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

Wind driven seas are leading to a moderate risk of life- threatening rip currents along the majority of the beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This level of threat will persist into the remainder of the forecast period. Nonetheless, conditions will improve in the beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands and western Puerto Rico by Sunday, and for southern Puerto Rico and Vieques by early next week.

Beachgoers should exercise caution when swimming at the beach and remain updated with the latest forecasts as they become available. While showers and thunderstorms will be less likely over the weekend along the CWA localized showers and thunderstorms especially along the western and northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico during the afternoons. If you hear thunder seek shelter immediately. Remain weather ready and alert with the latest forecasts as they become available.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>013.

VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...None.