textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 221 PM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

* Warm-to-hot conditions will persist through much of the week, with heat indices frequently ranging from 98 to 110F and locally higher across urban and coastal areas.

* Breezy east to east-southeast winds will continue through midweek, bringing occasional passing showers to windward areas while generally limiting widespread rainfall.

* A tropical wave is expected to move across the local area around Thursday, increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Life-threatening rip currents will remain possible along exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the forecast period. Beachgoers should exercise caution and follow local beach safety guidance.

* Moderate concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to return late this week behind the tropical wave, potentially reducing air quality and visibility while contributing to drier conditions.

Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 221 PM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

Once again, it was a quiet day for precipitation in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but above-normal temperatures continued. Maximum temperatures reached the mid-80s in higher elevations and the upper 80s to low 90s in coastal and urban areas. Despite drier-than-normal conditions noted in the 12Z TJSJ sounding, heat indices ranged from 98 to 107 degrees Fahrenheit, especially in urban and poorly ventilated areas. Winds were from the east to east-southeast at 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts at around 30 mph and local sea breezes.

There is expected to be limited rainfall in the region. In the afternoon, local sea breeze convergence and daytime heating may trigger isolated showers over western Puerto Rico and downwind of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Breezy east-southeast winds will continue to carry small patches of moisture, leading to occasional showers in windward areas, especially overnight and in the morning. Any rainfall activity is likely to be brief and fast-moving, posing only a minimal risk of flooding. Regarding temperatures, warm-to- hot conditions will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and into the beginning of the week. Heat indices between 98 and 107 degrees Fahrenheit, and locally higher, will continue to pose a risk to sensitive individuals and vulnerable populations, particularly across northern and western Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Despite a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean Sea, far south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the region will experience a drier air mass this afternoon and into early Monday morning. As a result, warm to hot conditions are expected, with little to no rain anticipated. The overall weather pattern will continue to feature breezy east-southeast winds, above-normal temperatures, and generally limited rainfall throughout the forecast period. An advective weather pattern will persist on Tuesday, with morning and overnight winds followed by limited afternoon convection in the western areas.

Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)

Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

A surface high pressure system located over the central Atlantic will continue to maintain breezy conditions under an east-southeast wind flow. At the mid-levels, high pressure will sustain very low relative humidity values, keeping conditions aloft dry and stable through at least Thursday. By Thursday and into the weekend, an upper-level low will develop northeast of the area, increasing instability aloft as 500 mb temperatures cool down to -8C to -9C. This feature is expected to interact with a passing tropical wave from Thursday into Friday, increasing the potential for frequent passing showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, followed by afternoon convective activity across portions of central and northwestern Puerto Rico.

At this time, uncertainty remains regarding the extent of the rainfall. During this period, several factors could work against the wet forecast, such as the exact positioning of the upper-level trough, intrusions of mid-level dry air and Saharan dust. Residents and visitors should stay aware of updates as the forecast evolves during the week. Regardless, any rainfall would be highly beneficial for areas currently experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions across the islands. Following the passage of the tropical wave over the weekend, the upper-level low will migrate northward, reducing its influence over the region. Drier conditions will prevail once again as moderate concentrations of Saharan dust filter into the area, promoting hazy skies, reduced visibility, and poor air quality.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 221 PM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period, drier airmass will continue to dominate. The primary aviation concern will be the gusty conditions. East-southeast winds of 15 to 20 kt, with gusts up to 25 to 30 kt and local sea breeze variations, will persist through 14/22-23Z, before diminishing to 10 to 12 kt or less overnight. Low to moderate concentrations of haze (HZ) will continue across the region. Winds increasing again 15/13-14Z from the E-ESE.

MARINE

Issued at 221 PM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

A broad area of high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to support fresh trade winds and choppy marine conditions through early this upcoming week. Seas will generally range from 4 to 6 feet, with occasional higher waves across the regional waters and local passages. As a result, small craft operators should exercise caution. By Tuesday, winds are expected to ease to moderate to locally fresh speeds, while seas gradually subside to between 3 and 5 feet. Fair weather conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period, accompanied by low to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust. A tropical wave is expected to approach the region around Thursday, leading to an increase in moisture and shower activity across the waters.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 221 PM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

Breezy to windy conditions will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents for most beaches across Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands through the upcoming workweek. Rip currents can be life-threatening, and beachgoers should remain vigilant, swim near lifeguards when possible, and follow the guidance of local authorities and beach warning flags. A low risk of rip currents will continue along the western coast of Puerto Rico. Even so, dangerous rip currents may still occur, particularly near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Additional information on rip current safety is available at weather.gov/beach/sju.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 221 PM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

The latest observations indicated dangerous fire weather conditions across the southern and western PR, Vieques and St Croix, with frequent gusty winds between 20 and 30 mph, RH values ranging from 40 to 50 percent with extremely dangerous dry fuels. Thus, a Red Flag Warning was issued.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...Red Flag Warning until 4 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ014-015- 018-025-027.

VI...Red Flag Warning until 4 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...None.