textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

* Pleasant temperatures, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, will prevail across the USVI and PR throughout the weekend.

* The north- and east-facing beaches of PR and the USVI will have a moderate risk of rip currents through this evening, then drop to low from Sunday through Tuesday evening.

* Occasional periods of showery weather will affect mainly the windward locations of PR and the USVI at times.

Short Term(Today through Monday)

Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

A few showers moved inland from the surrounding waters during the overnight hours, mainly affecting portions of northeastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Although coverage was limited, radar estimates show very isolated rainfall totals close to one half inch since sunset across parts of northeastern Puerto Rico. Outside of these brief showers, conditions were mostly quiet and skies stayed mostly clear. Overnight temperatures were one to three degrees cooler than last night, dipping into the mid-70s across coastal and urban areas, and into the low 60s and upper 50s in the higher elevations, giving another early taste of Friito Navideno. Winds over land remained light and variable throughout the night.

Today will be an excellent weather day for outdoor activities in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Mostly sunny, dry, and comfortable conditions are expected. Only a few brief morning trade wind showers may reach northern and eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern USVI as cool northeast winds move over warmer waters. The rest of the day will remain stable with only very limited, brief afternoon showers mainly over southwestern Puerto Rico. Cooler than normal temperatures will continue, and no hazard risks are expected.

Passing showers will move through at times tonight and into early Sunday across windward areas, but Sunday will remain a generally dry and favorable day for outdoor plans. On Monday, a patchy weather pattern is expected as pockets of moisture move across the region. Although no significant hazards are expected, brief heavy showers may develop if moist low levels and slightly unstable mid levels line up, but coverage will stay limited. A moderate northeast breeze will continue through Monday morning and increase to a fresh breeze Monday afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens. Confidence in the forecast remains high, with most areas staying dry through Sunday and only spotty showers possibly affecting outdoor activities on Monday.

Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)

Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

Model guidance indicates a likelihood of a zonal upper-level flow across the region between Tuesday and Wednesday. There is also a moderate chance that an upper-level trough amplifying from the Atlantic into the northeast Caribbean will push westward or weaken the mid-level ridge. If this occurs, low-level moisture may rise to around 700 mb as the trade-wind inversion weakens.

Overall, confidence is moderate to high that the long-term pattern will gradually shift toward a more advective regime. A surface high-pressure system is likely to migrate from the western Atlantic on Tuesday to the central Atlantic by Friday, which should promote breezy trade winds from Tuesday onward. Under this pattern, patches of moisture embedded in the trades have a moderate chance of producing occasional periods of showery weather.

Temperatures across the islands are expected to continue cooling. Model forecasts suggest that 925-mb temperatures will be slightly below normal, roughly at the 25th percentile compared to typical November conditions. However, there may be periods, particularly during peak afternoon heating, when temperatures reach near-normal levels, around the 50th percentile.

The windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will experience pleasant temperatures, with a moderate chance of passing showers throughout the period. There is also a slight to moderate chance of afternoon showers each day across the interior and western Puerto Rico, with the highest probability on Tuesday or Wednesday. The most likely time for showers across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the USVI will be overnight and early morning.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

Prevailing VFR thru the prd with only brief VCSH at TJSJ/USVI thru 22/14Z and psbl nr TJPS 22/1720Z. MVFR chances are very low and impacts unlikely. Sfc winds LGT/VRB, bcmg NE 1014 kt aft 22/14Z, then rtn LGT/VRB aft sunset. Steering flow fm the NE.

MARINE

Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic and a surface trough across the central Atlantic will maintain moderate trade winds through the weekend. By Sunday and Monday, a surface low and its cold front will interact with the high pressure, weakening the local pressure gradient and producing gentle to moderate easterly winds. Another high pressure will then build over the western Atlantic and move into the central Atlantic from Monday through Thursday. This will tighten the pressure gradient again, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and choppy seas from Tuesday into mid-week. Thus, expect confused seas due to locally choppy conditions combined with a long-period northeasterly swell arriving between Tuesday and Wednesday.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the north and east- facing beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through this evening. The risk is expected to decrease to low from Sunday to Tuesday morning. However, starting Tuesday evening, the risk is forecasted to rise back to moderate due to increasing winds and confused sea conditions.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...None. VI...None. AM...None.