textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

* Hazardous Marine & Coastal Conditions: A powerful, long-period north- northwesterly swell will impact the region today. Coastal Flood and High Surf Warnings are in effect for north-facing beaches. Breaking waves will reach dangerous heights between 15 and 20 ft, and a High Risk of Rip Currents persists for most exposed coastlines.

* Wind Shift: Winds will gradually veer from the north today to the northeast by Wednesday, and eventually east-southeast by Thursday. This shift will help pool moisture over the islands through midweek.

* Near-to-Below Normal Temperatures: A cooler air mass will linger through Thursday. Coastal areas can expect lows in the upper 60s to low 70s and highs in the mid-80s. In the mountains, lows will be in the mid-50s to low 60s, with highs in the mid-70s.

Short Term(Today through Thursday)

Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions were observed overnight across the Atlantic Coastline. Thus, we upgraded the Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories from the northwest to northeast Puerto Rico to Warnings. Meanwhile, the west PR and the north-facing coasts in Culebra, St. Thomas, St. John, and adjacent islands remain under the Advisories. The frontal boundary brought cloudy skies and showery weather across portions of PR's northern half and the USVI overnight. Winds were mainly from the north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Low temperatures were in the low 60s or even the upper 50s in the mountains of PR, and in the low 70s along the coastal locations in PR and the USVI.

A frontal boundary moving across the Northeast Caribbean will bring windy conditions and frequent showers to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands today. Supported by a prefrontal trough and high moisture levels (TPW between 1.75 and 2.10 inches), atmospheric instability will increase the potential for heavy rainfall. Residents can expect northerly winds and periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, posing a limited-to-elevated risk of flooding. However, mid- to upper-level cloud cover may act as a limiting factor by inhibiting some shower development.

Coastal conditions will remain hazardous due to a long-period north- northwesterly swell. Consequently, Coastal Flood and High Surf Warnings are in effect for the north-facing coastlines of PR and the USVI, where the risk of rip currents remains high.

This wet pattern is expected to persist through Wednesday and into Thursday as the lingering frontal boundary continues to pool moisture over the region. Winds will shift from the north today to the northeast by Wednesday, eventually turning east-southeast by Thursday. While the flooding risk will peak on Tuesday and Wednesday, it should begin to diminish by Thursday morning as the moisture moves away from the islands.

Local temperatures across PR and the USVI are expected to remain near or below normal through at least Thursday. Residents can anticipate low temperatures along the coast to range from the upper 60s to the low 70s, while in the mountains and valleys, lows may drop to the mid-50s or low-60s. On the other hand, maximum temperatures along the coast are forecast to reach the mid-80s, while in the mountains and valleys they should be in the mid- to upper 70s.

Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)

Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

During the long-term period, variable conditions are expected. A high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will promote a southeasterly flow at the start of the period. By Friday, precipitable water values are forecast to decrease from around 1.9 inches to near 1.3 inches, resulting in lower rain chances, with moisture becoming more confined to the lower levels. The remainder of the weekend into early next week will be influenced by the arrival of another deep polar trough and its associated frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and elevate the flood risk once again. At this time, flood risk on Saturday remains limited to elevated; however, model guidance has been inconsistent regarding the timing of the next frontal boundary. Current guidance now indicates the front passing late Friday into Saturday, increasing moisture values to above normal levels, near 2 inches. Low-level winds are expected to remain very light due to the presence of a col region. By Saturday night into Sunday, winds are forecast to slightly increase and shift from the north to northeast in the wake of the front, if it materializes. Areas exposed to northerly and northeasterly flow will have the highest rain chances as showers are advected inland with available moisture. Early next week, there will be less moisture, but rain chances remain around 30 to 40 % across windward areas, and local effects induces showers. Temperature wise, guidance suggest seasonal to above normal temperatures during the forecast period. Please continue to monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

SHRA/-SHRA will continue across terminals with brief MVFR possible. Winds will range mainly from the N to NNW between 10 and 20 kt with gusts around 30 kt or even higher. This weather pattern will persist throughout the day as the frontal boundary move across the region. BKN/OVC cigs FL020FL070 expected at times.

MARINE

Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

A frontal boundary across the region will continue to linger through at least mid week, promoting northerly winds at around 20 to 25 knots, with higher gusts expected. In addition, a large, long-period northerly to northwesterly swell is creating hazardous seas ranging from 10 to 14 feet across local waters and passages through around midweek. These conditions will be hazardous to small craft, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for all coastal and offshore waters through at least late Wednesday night.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

A large, long-period northwest to northerly swell will continue spreading across the Atlantic waters and passages through midweek and beach conditions will remain hazardous. As a result, Coastal Flood and High Surf Warnings are in effect for the north-facing coastlines of Puerto Rico and Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories for the northern U.S. Virgin Islands and southwest Puerto Rico. Large breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet are expected today and also the High Risk of rip current continues. This will result in life- threatening conditions, please stay out of the water and continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010.

High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for PRZ001- 002-005-008-010>012.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ011-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ011-012.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for VIZ001.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Wednesday night for AMZ723-726-733-735-741-742-745.