textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue, with dangerous offshore seas and rip currents posing a risk to small craft and swimmers.

* Frequent showers will persist today, but the risk of flooding will be low. Ponding of water on roadways are anticipated, especially across western Puerto Rico this afternoon.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, on and off showers will continue as well, with a higher frequency of showers today that will gradually diminish tonight.

Short Term(Today through Monday)

Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

Frequent moving showers over the waters affected the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the overnight hours, driven by patches of enhanced low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow. These showers moved fairly quickly, limiting rainfall accumulations overall, though brief periods of moderate rainfall were observed.

Moist conditions will persist through today as above-normal precipitable water values remain in place across the northeastern Caribbean. Mid-level moisture, with 700-500 mb relative humidity above climatological normal today, will continue to support periods of showers, particularly across eastern and interior/western sections of Puerto Rico. The National Blend of Models (NBM) guidance suggests rainfall totals of around one-half to locally one inch today, with a limited flooding risk due to ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas. Localized areas, mostly over western portions of Puerto Rico could still observe urban and small stream flooding during the afternoon hours.

A drying trend is expected late tonight into Sunday as a drier air mass moves in from the northeast. Both precipitable water and mid- level relative humidity will decrease sharply, resulting in reduced shower coverage on Sunday. Any remaining activity will be brief and mainly confined to windward coastal areas during the morning hours. On Monday, moisture levels are forecast to fluctuate between below- normal and near-normal values, allowing for isolated passing showers at times, but overall stable conditions will prevail.

Breezy east to northeast winds will persist through at least late Sunday, with sustained surface winds of 13 to 18 mph and higher gusts at times, particularly across coastal areas. On Monday, an approaching shearline and col region from the northwest will weaken the pressure gradient, resulting in a gradual reduction in wind speeds.

Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)

Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

Surface high over the eastern Atlantic will drive the trade winds from the east through Wednesday. At the mid and upper levels, a ridge builds, maintaining the mid levels very dry. Thus, fair weather is expected for most of the period. However, some showers may still reach the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico at times, while convection could still form in the west each afternoon. The risk of flooding will be very slim to none. By the end of the week, a polar trough will weaken the pressure gradient, with winds becoming very light on Thursday and Friday. A cold front will stall north of the area too. So far, it looks like the rain activity will stay along the Atlantic waters, so the chances or rain are not expected to be high on land areas. Also, winds will shift more from the south on Thursday and Friday. This will result in warmer temperatures, with 925 mb values at one to two standard deviations above normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the forecast period. However, passing trade wind showers will continue to affect the USVI and E Puerto Rico, especially during the overnight and early morning hours, resulting in VCSH and brief MVFR conditions in SHRA at times. During the afternoon, shower activity may increase across interior and W PR, potentially affecting TJPS\ with brief MVFR CIGs/VIS. Sfc winds will be from the E at 15-20 kt with higher gusts aft 14Z.

MARINE

Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

A broad surface high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will promote moderate trade winds today, while another building high will bring moderate to fresh tonight through Monday. Lingering moisture from a surface trough will maintain a high frequency of showers through today, but the frequency of the showers will gradually decrease tonight.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 426 AM AST Sat Jan 24 2026

Moderate easterly winds will maintain a moderate to high rip current today, especially for the northern coast of Puerto Rico. For the rest of the week, the risk of rip currents will be moderate for most north and east facing beaches in Puerto Rico, and across most of the Virgin Islands beaches.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005- 008.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711.