textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 137 PM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

* A high risk of rip currents will persist across the northern and northeastern beaches of Puerto Rico until 6 PM AST this evening. A moderate risk will remain for the rest of the areas.

* Hazardous marine conditions will persist with seas up to 7 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters through early this evening.

* Variable weather conditions, including periods of light to moderate showers are expected to continue during the morning hours, followed by localized afternoon convection, especially across interior, southern and southwestern Puerto Rico through midweek.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, variable conditions will prevail with ocasional passing showers through the rest of the workweek.

Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 137 PM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

Partly to mostly cloudy skies prevailed today across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as a frontal boundary shifted eastward. Light to moderate showers were observed, driven by the combined influence of the front and an upper-level trough, which continues to promote unsettled weather across the forecast area. Doppler radar estimated accumulations between 0.30 and 0.50 inches across the northern municipalities of Puerto Rico, with the highest totals concentrated over the San Juan metropolitan area and adjacent municipalities. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, rainfall remained lighter, totaling around 0.10 inches with occasional passing showers. Due to persistent cloud cover, daytime highs remained slightly cooler, staying in the low 80s across the lower elevations of Puerto Rico and the low 70s in the mountains. Highs in the U.S. Virgin Islands reached the mid-80s.

For the remainder of the afternoon, showers will develop across the southern municipalities of Puerto Rico, where the heaviest rains may cause ponding on roads and in areas with poor drainage. Given the instability associated with the upper-level trough and temperatures at the 500 mb level reaching -8C, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

As the frontal boundary and upper-level trough continue to move away from the region, residual moisture with precipitable water values reaching 1.75 inches will maintain variable weather conditions. Consequently, light to moderate showers will persist each morning across eastern and northern portions of the islands, followed by afternoon showers across the interior and southern Puerto Rico through Tuesday as northeasterly winds prevail.

By midweek, a surface high pressure system will settle over the central Atlantic, shifting winds from the east-southeast as it migrates eastward across the Atlantic basin. While precipitable water values will gradually diminish toward 1.50 inches, similar weather patterns will persist, with afternoon showers developing over the northwestern portions of the islands. Weather conditions across the U.S. Virgin Islands are expected to remain variable through the rest of the week.

Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)

Issued at 317 AM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

Moisture is expected to remain elevated from Thursday through the weekend, with precipitable water (PW) values generally in the 1.50 to 1.80 inch range or above normal values for late March. Increased low and mid-level moisture, along with a weak mid- to upper-level trough moving through the region and weak surface perturbations, will support frequent periods of cloudiness and showers. Temperatures near 500 mb are forecast to remain around 6 to 8 degrees C, indicating moderate instability. This environment may support periods of moderate to heavy showers, particularly on Friday. Regardless, widespread organized convection is not anticipated. Enhanced cloud cover should limit daytime heating, keeping high temperatures near typical seasonal values. Winds are expected to gradually increase to 15 to 20 knots, with locally gusty conditions in and near shower activity.

Over the weekend, unsettled conditions are expected to persist as moisture remains elevated and weak disturbances remain near the region. This will result in continued periods of showers or simply increased cloud cover. Overall weather conditions will remain wet and somewhat variable.

Conditions are expected to gradually improve during the upcoming workweek as a drier airmass filters into the area. Shower coverage should decrease, while temperatures remain near seasonal norms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

Periods of MVFR/brief IFR conds possible in SHRA, with reduced VIS and lower CIGs, mainly across TJSJ/TJPS thru 23/22-23Z. VCSH will remain possible at TJSJ/TISX/TIST aft 23/23Z thru Monday morning. N-NE winds btw 10 to 15 kts, becoming light and VRB aft 22/23Z.

MARINE

Issued at 137 PM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

The proximity of a frontal boundary extending from the U.S. Virgin Islands into the Central Atlantic will continue to promote unsettled marine conditions today, with passing showers and a low chance of thunderstorms across the regional waters and passages. A fading long- period northerly swell will maintain hazardous seas across the Atlantic waters, with the Small Craft Advisory through 6 PM AST this afternoon. Nevertheless, the latest scatterometer scans show moderate to locally fresh north-northeasterly winds likely to produce choppy seas over the Atlantic offshore waters and the Mona Passage, small craft should exercise caution. A surface high pressure building from the western to central Atlantic will maintain moderate northeasterly winds through the first part of the week, strengthening and becoming moderate to locally fresh from the east by Thursday night.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 137 PM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

Based on the latest nearshore buoy observations, seas have ranged between 5 and 6 feet, and taking into consideration , breaking waves between 6 and 7 feet can still be expected over northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico. Hence, the Rip Current Statement remains in effect over the aforementioned beach areas through 6 PM AST this afternoon. Beachgoers are encouraged to opt for other beaches that remain under a moderate risk, though they must exercise caution as life-threatening rip currents are still possible along the surf zone. As the swell diminishes, beach conditions will gradually improve, with a low to moderate risk across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands for the next several days.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008.

VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711.