textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

* An elevated to significant flood threat is in place today, with an elevated risk continuing through midweek. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall may result in urban and small stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and minor landslides. Residents and visitors should remain alert and avoid rivers, creeks, and other flood-prone areas.

* Hazardous marine and coastal conditions will develop starting today due to the arrival of a strong, long-period north to northwesterly swell and increasing northerly winds. High Surf Advisories, a High Rip Current Risk, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect through late Wednesday. In addition, a Coastal Flood Watch is in effect. Potential impacts include large breaking waves, life-threatening rip currents, beach erosion, and minor coastal flooding in vulnerable coastal areas. Stay out of the water!

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, shower frequency will increase today, with the highest rainfall potential expected tonight into Tuesday.

Short Term(Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A frontal boundary converged with southerly winds early this morning to produce significant rainfall over portions of southern Puerto Rico. Since midnight, the Doppler radar estimated between 3 and 6 inches of rain between Guanica and Ponce. An eastward shift in rainfall activity is expected across the rest of PR, and into the USVI throughout the day. Behind the front, from today through late Tuesday night, a shearline will increase winds between 20 and 25 knots and from the north to northeast. This will cause breezy conditions across the islands, and in combination with abundant moisture content will promote an advective weather pattern with showers increasing in frequency and intensity over the local waters and across all the islands. The wettest period is still expected today across PR, and across the USVI from late tonight into Tuesday. The expected rainfall (1-3 inches and locally higher) will cause urban and small stream flooding, as well as flash flooding with possible minor landslides, particularly across the interior and eastern half of PR.

On Wednesday, winds are expected to return from the east as a surface high pressure quickly builds from the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic. These winds will bring back/carry the remnants of the front over the islands, extending the overall wet period through the short-term period. Any additional periods of heavy showers over already saturated soils will lead to flooding, and the risk for flooding will remain elevated in general.

Another significant threat during the short-term period is the arrival of a large swell, that will produce dangerous swimming conditions, life-threatening rip currents, high surf conditions and possible minor coastal flooding along the west to north beaches of PR, Culebra, and the northern USVI. Inexperienced surfers and beach goers are urged to stay on shore, and away from beaches and rock formations.

Long Term(Thursday through Monday)

Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Lingering moisture associated with the frontal boundary, light southeast winds, and 500 mb temperatures near -7 degrees Celsius will promote the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms again on Thursday, with activity more focused across northwestern Puerto Rico. Slow-moving showers combined with saturated soils could lead to urban and small stream flooding, with flood risk ranging from limited to elevated. By Friday, precipitable water values are expected to decrease significantly, from around 1.8 inches to near 1.2 inches, resulting in lower rain chances. The remainder of the weekend into early next week will be influenced by the arrival of another deep polar trough and its associated frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and flood risk once again. Throughout the weekend, low-level winds are expected to remain very light due to the presence of a col region. From Sunday night into Monday, winds are forecast to gradually increase and shift from the north to northeast as a frontal boundary approaches or passes near the area. Please continue to monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Frontal system and associated shearline will continue to produce widespread -SHRA across the area terminals during the next 24 hours. Increasing northerly winds expected at TJBQ/TJSJ up to 18 kt with stronger gusts at times aft 02/13z, while weak and variable winds prevail across the USVI terminals through late this afternoon. The strong northerly winds will reach the USVI from this evening onward. Mtn tops obscd and BKN/OVC cigs expected mainly btw FL025-FL100. Iso -TSRA cannot be ruled out throughout the fcst period.

MARINE

Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A frontal boundary is moving across the region through midweek, causing winds to shift to the north and strengthen to 20 to 25 knots, with higher gusts expected through at least Wednesday. This front will also bring heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms to the local waters. In addition, a large, long-period northerly to northwesterly swell will generate hazardous seas ranging from 10 to 14 feet across regional waters during the early part of the workweek. These conditions will be hazardous to small craft, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for all coastal and offshore waters through at least late Wednesday night.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A large, long-period northwest to northerly swell will gradually spread across the Atlantic waters and passages through midweek. Seas are expected to build rapidly up to 12 feet, and occasionally higher from late this afternoon through Tuesday. This swell is forecast to cause large breaking wave action along the west to northeast beaches of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern USVI. Swell decay from offshore buoys and model adjustment due to underestimation of seas, suggest surf heights between 15 and 20 feet during the peak of the event. A High Surf Warning and a Coastal Flood Warning could be issued later today if buoy observations continue to support this significant swell event.

The next high tides are expected as follows: In San Juan, 1.60 feet at 9:49 AM AST, and 1.01 feet at 9:16 PM AST; in Mayaguez, 1.41 feet at 9:19 AM AST, and 0.98 feet at 9:17 PM AST; in Charlotte Amalie, 0.74 feet at 10:12 AM AST, and 0.66 feet at 10:34 AM Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

An unusually moist and wet period for early February. Last night and during the overnight period, some areas across western to southern interior of Puerto Rico have seen around 2 to 5 inches, isolated up to 6 inches of rainfall. Although streamflows have been running around normal to below normal levels, some rivers reached action level (below flood level, but elevated). Additional rainfall today and Tuesday could lead to flooding across main rivers and trigger small land slides in areas of steep terrain. Please be aware of your surroundings if you live in flood prone areas.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...Coastal Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010>012.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010>012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010>012.

High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ013.

VI...Coastal Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ001.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-741- 742-745.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM AST Thursday for AMZ716-733-735.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM AST Thursday for AMZ723-726.