textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents will continue at north- and east- facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through early next week. While surf will gradually subside, hazardous coastal conditions will persist. Stay out of the water at high-risk areas.

* Hazardous seas will persist through early next week, with conditions remaining unfavorable for small craft across local waters.

* Showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon, becoming more widespread and stronger through the weekend and into early next week. Flooding risk will remain elevated, with locally higher impacts possible, especially across Puerto Rico.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with stronger gusts in exposed areas and near showers.

Short Term(Today through Sunday)

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

A breezy easterly to east-northeasterly flow will maintain a pattern of frequent passing showers today through Saturday. Showers that developed overnight have continued into the morning across windward areas, with radar estimates indicating around a quarter to half an inch of rainfall in some locations, with isolated higher amounts. These showers have been frequent, developing over local waters and moving inland with the flow, and this pattern will continue at times through today and tonight, mainly affecting northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

With no well-defined trade wind cap in place, afternoon convection will develop each day across interior and western Puerto Rico, with isolated thunderstorms possible. Increasing cloud cover at times may limit overall coverage, especially on Saturday. However, showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to ponding of water and minor flooding, particularly where activity repeats or soils remain saturated. Gusty winds and lightning will be the main additional hazards. This pattern may lead to brief but impactful weather changes, especially with increased outdoor activity through the holiday weekend.

By Sunday, conditions become more favorable for stronger and more efficient convection. Winds will turn from the east-southeast to southeast, bringing a warmer and more humid airmass across the region. This will reduce the typical trade wind shower pattern and support more active afternoon development across interior and western Puerto Rico. Where sunshine breaks through, showers and thunderstorms may produce heavier rainfall and more localized impacts. As a result, the risk of localized flooding will increase and become more widespread, especially in areas experiencing repeated activity or slower-moving cells.

Overall, the main hazards will include localized flooding from periods of heavy rainfall, especially where showers and thunderstorms repeat or soils remain saturated, along with gusty winds and isolated thunderstorms capable of producing lightning and brief heavy downpours. Flooding risk will remain elevated each day, expanding in coverage on Sunday.

Long Term(Monday through Friday)

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

A warm and humid pattern remains on track across the northeastern Caribbean through most of the upcoming week, supporting enhanced afternoon convection and a limited to elevated flooding threat across the local islands.

At the surface, a strong high-pressure system migrating from the central to eastern Atlantic will maintain south to southeasterly winds through mid-week. This flow will transport abundant tropical moisture from the Caribbean Sea into the region, with precipitable water (PWAT) values forecast between 1.90 and 2.00 inches throughout the period. Under this pattern, isolated to scattered showers are expected across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning hours, followed by daily afternoon convection across central, northern, and northwestern Puerto Rico. Daytime heating and local effects will further enhance shower and thunderstorm development. This pattern, combined with high humidity, will elevate the risk of urban and small stream flooding, as well as quick river rises.

As the week progresses, a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough will support the development of a surface trough near Hispaniola, enhancing moisture pooling across the region. By Wednesday, 500 mb temperatures are forecast to drop to around -9C, increasing instability aloft and supporting stronger thunderstorm development. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer early in the period, with 925 mb values rising above climatological normals from Tuesday onward, further supporting afternoon convective activity.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

SHRA dvlp ovr local waters and mv inland acrs windward/exposed TAF sites ovrnght thru 03/14Z, brief MVFR psbl (cigs 020030, vsby 35SM). SHRA may cont at times thru the day, but less frequent aft sunrise. TJPS less impacted early, SHRA psbl aft 03/17Z, then aftn SHRA/isol TSRA dvlp ovr interior/SW PR, psbl impacting site with brief MVFR/IFR and gusty winds. SHRA redevelop ovr windward sites aft 03/22Z. Winds ENE 10 to 15 kt ovrnght, incr 15 to 20 kt g25 to 30 kt aft sunrise, breezy thru pd.

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the weekend and into next week. A strong Atlantic high will maintain fresh to locally strong winds, veering from northeasterly to easterly today and east-southeasterly by the weekend. Combined with lingering northeasterly swell, seas will remain choppy to rough, especially across the Atlantic waters and local passages. Trade wind showers will continue across the waters, with isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible over coastal waters, mainly from southwest to northwest Puerto Rico, drifting west with the flow. Coverage may increase slightly over the weekend.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

Although the High Surf Advisory has expired and the northeasterly swell is gradually subsiding, hazardous coastal conditions will persist across the region. A high risk of rip currents will continue, and life-threatening conditions are likely, particularly along northern and eastern exposures through at least early next week. While large breaking waves may become more isolated, rough and choppy surf will continue due to persistent winds and residual swell. Beachgoers and inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water. Avoid rocks, jetties, and breakwaters, where waves can sweep individuals into the sea. Follow lifeguard guidance and posted safety information.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Apr 3 2026

Hydrologic conditions will become increasingly favorable for flooding impacts through the weekend, although uncertainty remains regarding rainfall coverage and persistence. Flooding is not expected to be widespread; however, an elevated risk of urban and small stream flooding is anticipated, with isolated flash flooding possible. Recent rainfall has resulted in saturated soils, especially across eastern and northern Puerto Rico, which will allow water to run off quickly and lead to rapid rises in streams and rivers, including water surges (golpes de agua) in steep terrain. A shift in the pattern will bring more afternoon activity toward northwestern Puerto Rico, and the San Juan streamer could still produce periods of rainfall across the metro area, posing a localized flooding risk.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012-013.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ001- 002-005-008-010-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for VIZ001- 002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-741.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ726-742.