textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

* Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop across the interior and southwestern municipalities of Puerto Rico, leading to ponding on roadways and minor flooding in poorly drained areas, which could affect motorists.

* Increasing winds will transport additional moisture across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late tonight, increasing the likelihood of passing showers on Sunday.

* Breezy to windy conditions from Sunday into early next week will create hazardous marine and coastal conditions across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Small Craft Advisories and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect for many local waters and beaches.

Short Term(This evening through Monday)

Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

Mostly sunny skies with little to no rainfall were observed this morning across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, although a few showers affected the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. By the afternoon, showers developed across the mountainous interior and southwestern Puerto Rico. Winds were mainly from the east to east-northeast at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts between 25 and 35 mph. Maximum temperatures ranged from the mid- to upper 80s along the coast to the lower 80s across the mountains.

For this afternoon and tonight, showers are expected across the interior and southwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico, where ponding of water in poorly drained areas is possible. Meanwhile, mostly sunny conditions with little to no rainfall are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A mid-level high pressure will promote somewhat stable conditions across the northeastern Caribbean. At the surface, a strong high pressure over the western Atlantic, and another high pressure moving eastward across the same region by Monday, will tighten the pressure gradient, generating breezy to windy conditions across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the short-term period.

Under this pattern, a trade wind perturbation is expected to arrive on Sunday, promoting showery weather mainly across windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from the early morning to the afternoon hours. By Sunday evening, another pocket of drier air will move into the region, limiting rainfall activity. However, additional moisture surges will bring occasional showers on Monday, along with limited afternoon convection across western Puerto Rico.

The primary hazards during this period will be wind-related conditions, resulting in breezy to windy conditions, particularly across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the coastal areas of Puerto Rico on Sunday and Monday.

Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)

Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

A broad high pressure will be present over the central Atlantic to start the long term period, and will result in breezy to windy E to ESE winds. Wind speeds at 925 mb will be above normal to start the period, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions. Unsecured items could blow around. Up to an elevated wind risk is forecast to start the long term period for coastal areas. As low pressure systems move into the western Atlantic and continue displacing the broad high eastward, the pressure gradient will gradually relax over our region during the second half of the week, a limited wind risk is still forecast at least through Thursday. Winds will continue mainly from the E to ESE through the period. Mid-level atmospheric conditions are expected to remain generally stable throughout the forecast period. Model guidance indicates that 700500 mb lapse rates will be below normal to low end normal values, with 500 mb temperatures remaining near their climatological normals to slightly above normal. While an upper-level trough may develop northeast of the area during the period, its main instability will largely bypass the local region. As a result, conditions will be marginally stable, which will limit the development of deep convection and instead favor shallow trade wind showers. Despite this, the breezy to windy E to ESE flow will steer showers and shallow moisture patches toward windward areas. Shallow moisture patches arriving over the islands will keep precipitable water (PWAT) values around normal but with a general drying trend, with some variability linked to the moist and dry patches. This will result in passing showers across windward areas, particularly during the overnight and morning hours across eastern PR and the USVI. Diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence and local effects will fuel afternoon convective showers over the interior to western and northwestern PR, as well as lines of showers developing from the local islands. Although the fast steering flow will limit rainfall accumulations, ponding of water is possible on roads and in poorly drained areas. 925 mb temperatures will stay near normal but will be on a general warming trend due to less cloud cover and the E to ESE flow. Patchy fog is possible in interior sectors of PR during the overnight hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites during the period. VCSH to -RA is expected at TJSJ, TIST, and TJBQ through 14/23Z. Winds will remain from the E up to 15 knots with gusty winds up to 25 knots. Winds will diminish at 14/23Z, increasing again at 15/14Z up to 15 knots and increasing up to 18 knots mostly across TISX, TIST & TJSJ. VCSH are expected along most of the east sites from 15/15Z to 15/18Z.

MARINE

Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

A strong surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong easterly winds, resulting in choppy to rough seas across the regional waters. Another high pressure moving off the eastern seaboard will tighten the local pressure gradient and maintain hazardous marine conditions.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 318 PM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today across most of the northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Increasing easterly winds will create favorable conditions for the development of rip currents along many local beaches. Beachgoers are urged to exercise caution, particularly near jetties, rocks, and other structures.

From Sunday into early next week, coastal conditions are expected to deteriorate gradually. Strengthening easterly winds will generate choppy to rough seas across the regional waters, increasing wave action along exposed beaches. As a result, the risk of rip currents is expected to increase to high levels along many exposed beaches of the islands by Monday.

Beachgoers should remain alert to changing coastal conditions and continue monitoring the latest forecasts and statements. For additional information, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through late Monday night for PRZ001>003-005-008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through late Monday night for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-723.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ733.