textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

* Generally stable weather will persist through early next week, with limited rainfall and continued dry conditions.

* Warm to locally hot conditions will continue, with heat indices commonly exceeding 100F and isolated areas surpassing 108F.

* Elevated fire danger is expected across portions of southern and western Puerto Rico, Vieques, and St. Croix due to prolonged dryness, dry fuels, warm temperatures, and breezy conditions.

* Fresh to strong east-southeast winds will create breezy conditions, choppy seas, and a moderate risk of rip currents along many exposed beaches.

Short Term(Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

Broad surface high pressure over the North Atlantic will maintain a prevailing east-southeast trade wind flow through the period, steering intermittent patches of shallow moisture interspersed with drier-than-normal air across the region. At the same time, a persistent mid-level ridge and very dry air aloft will suppress deep convection, while light concentrations of Saharan dust continue to produce hazy skies with minimal impacts. Expect mainly brief, fast-moving passing showers across windward areas and isolated to locally scattered afternoon showers over western Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave moving through the Caribbean will remain south of the local islands, producing only minor fluctuations in moisture and wind speeds. Although the mid-level ridge may weaken slightly by Tuesday, only subtle changes in the overall weather pattern are anticipated, with generally limited shower activity continuing.

The primary hazards through the period will be heat, gusty winds, and elevated fire danger. Afternoon heat indices will commonly exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit, with isolated locations reaching or exceeding 108 degrees. Fresh to strong east-southeast winds will create breezy conditions, particularly across exposed coastal areas and the local islands. While these conditions may appear favorable for beach and outdoor activities, residents and visitors should remain mindful of the heat stress, gusty winds, and elevated fire danger.

Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)

Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

A surface high pressure system located over the central Atlantic will continue to maintain breezy conditions under an east-southeast wind flow. At the mid-levels, high pressure will sustain very low relative humidity values, keeping conditions aloft dry and stable through at least Thursday. By Thursday and into the weekend, an upper-level low will develop northeast of the area, increasing instability aloft as 500 mb temperatures cool down to -8C to -9C. This feature is expected to interact with a passing tropical wave from Thursday into Friday, increasing the potential for frequent passing showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, followed by afternoon convective activity across portions of central and northwestern Puerto Rico.

At this time, uncertainty remains regarding the extent of the rainfall. During this period, several factors could work against the wet forecast, such as the exact positioning of the upper-level trough, intrusions of mid-level dry air and Saharan dust. Residents and visitors should stay aware of updates as the forecast evolves during the week. Regardless, any rainfall would be highly beneficial for areas currently experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions across the islands. Following the passage of the tropical wave over the weekend, the upper-level low will migrate northward, reducing its influence over the region. Drier conditions will prevail once again as moderate concentrations of Saharan dust filter into the area, promoting hazy skies, reduced visibility, and poor air quality.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

Mainly VFR conds will prevail at all TAF sites thru the fcst pd. VCSH with brief -SHRA is psbl in the vcnty of TJBQ btwn 14/17Z-20Z due to iso aftn convection over W PR, and near TJSJ aft 14/23Z with passing trade-wind showers. Light concs of Saharan dust will persist acrs the local area, resulting in locally hazy skies with minimal VIS impacts. E-ESE sfc winds will incr to 15-20 kt with higher gusts and sea-breeze variations fm 14/14Z-23Z, bcmg 10 kt or less ovrngt.

MARINE

Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

A broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain fresh trade winds and choppy marine conditions through at least late Sunday into Monday. Therefore, seas are expected to range between 4 and 6 feet, occasionally higher, across the regional waters and local passages. Small craft operators should exercise caution along the offshore Atlantic waters. Surface conditions will change, with winds becoming more moderate, resulting in seas between 3 and 5 feet. A tropical wave will move south of the region, increasing winds over the offshore Caribbean waters and increasing the chances of thunderstorm activity, resulting in localized hazardous marine conditions. From Sunday into the upcoming workweek, fair weather conditions associated with low to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust will persist throughout the forecast period.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic extending into the Caribbean will maintain breezy to locally windy conditions through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Therefore, there is a moderate risk of rip currents across most beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Life-threatening rip currents remain possible, and beachgoers should exercise caution and swim near lifeguards when available. A low risk of rip currents will continue along the western beaches of Puerto Rico. However, rip currents can still occur even when the risk is low, particularly near jetties, piers, reefs, and other coastal structures. Anyone entering the water should remain aware of local surf and beach conditions. For additional beach safety information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 313 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

The combination of prolonged rainfall deficits, abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions, increasingly dry fuels, above- normal temperatures, and breezy east-southeast winds will continue to support elevated fire danger across portions of Puerto Rico, particularly the southern coastal plains. Some locations have received less than 5 percent of normal rainfall in recent weeks, while KBDI values exceed 600 across much of southern Puerto Rico and 550 over portions of the western interior, with maxima of 747 at Cabo Rojo and 717 at St. Croix.

Although occasional maritime moisture and local sea-breeze circulations may provide temporary increases in relative humidity, no significant wetting rainfall is expected over the next several days. Consequently, fuels are expected to remain highly receptive to ignition, and fire weather conditions are likely to persist or gradually worsen until a more substantial rainfall event occurs.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...None. VI...None. AM...None.