textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents will impact north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. The highest risk extends from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, Vieques, and across the USVI.

* Breezy trade winds will bring fast-moving showers through Sunday. Brief heavy rain may cause ponding on roads and reduced visibility, especially across the USVI and PR's windward areas, especially today and Sunday.

* Breezy to windy conditions will continue into next week. This pattern will dominate the weather conditions from Tuesday through Thursday.

* Hazardous marine conditions are expected today. Choppy to rough seas and fresh to locally strong winds will create dangerous conditions for small craft throughout much of the forecast period.

Short Term(Today through Sunday)

Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

Overnight conditions were generally calm across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. High-level cirrus clouds moved eastward across the northeastern Caribbean, while mid and low-level clouds filtered from the east embedded in the winds. Most of the shower activity was observed over the local waters, but some moved inland across the USVI and PR's windward areas. Temperatures fell into the middle or lower 70s along the coast and into the low 60s, and even cooler, across the higher elevations and valleys, early this morning. Winds were mainly dominated by land-breeze across the leeward sides of the islands, and from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph across the windward locations.

A strong-surface high pressure system extending from the Central to Western Atlantic will promote breezy to locally windy ESE winds today into the weekend. These breezy easterlies will bring a surge of moisture today, increasing the frequency of shower activity from now onward, especially from late this morning into the evening. Although we anticipate fast-moving showers, this activity will bring periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, resulting in ponding of waters across portions of the USVI and the eastern sections of PR. Around mid-morning into the afternoon, this activity will move further westward into the interior and western sections of PR, resulting in downpours due to the orographic and diurnal heating effects. This heating will promote the potential for one or two thunderstorms across the mountains or western PR during the afternoon. We cannot rule out isolated urban flooding, given the potential for persistent rain entrainment today.

A drier air mass and more southeast winds are expected for Saturday. Combined with the presence of mid-level dry air, we do not anticipate strong convection. Still, showers will be mainly confined over northwest PR due to the anticipated above-normal daytime heating, supported by near-to-above-normal 925 mb temperatures. Another surge of moisture embedded in the winds will increase the frequency of showers and clouds across portions of the islands on Sunday.

The primary hazard at this time remains the hazardous beach conditions along the Atlantic-facing coastlines due to life- threatening rip currents. These conditions are expected from Rincon through Fajardo, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as across St. Thomas, St. John, and adjacent islands, and St. Croix. Beachgoers are strongly urged to follow local safety guidance and avoid entering the water where rip current risk is high. Please avoid being part of the statistics.

Long Term(Monday through Friday)

Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

A broad surface high over the north-central Atlantic will continue to dominate the regional pattern through late week, maintaining a tight pressure gradient and breezy to windy low-level flow across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds will remain generally easterly Monday into Tuesday, shifting to east to east-northeast by Wednesday and Thursday as an additional high builds into the western Atlantic and reinforces the gradient. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals.

Moisture will remain variable but generally above normal early in the week, with embedded patches of deeper moisture moving within the trade wind flow Monday and Tuesday. This will support frequent passing showers, particularly during the overnight and morning hours across windward sectors, followed by afternoon convection over interior and western Puerto Rico each day. As winds become more east- northeasterly late in the period, shower activity will favor eastern and northeastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall may occur where showers repeatedly move over the same locations, especially Monday and Tuesday, resulting in a limited risk of minor urban and small stream flooding. A gradual drying trend is possible late Wednesday into Thursday. Nevertheless, passing showers remain possible.

Breezy to windy conditions will persist, particularly from late Tuesday onward, with gusty periods likely. Overall, the primary hazards through Thursday will be the increase in wind speeds and a limited flooding risk early in the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. A surge of moisture will bring occasional fast-moving SHRA/+SHRA and clouds from the east, creating SCT to brief BKN ceilings across local terminals. During the afternoon, 27/16-23z, SHRA frequency will increase, and the potential for one or two thunderstorms will increase, especially along the Cordillera and near JBQ. Expect ESE winds at 5-10 kt overnight, and after 27/13z at 10-20 kt with gusts between 20 and 30 kt.

MARINE

Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

The long-period north-northwesterly swell is subsiding but will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and local passages through tomorrow. However, hazardous conditions may persist as a surface high pressure extending from the Central to Western Atlantic is currently tightening the local pressure gradient, promoting fresh to locally strong east to east-southeast winds. Choppy to rough seas will likely continue across the regional waters through the middle of next week, and Small Craft Advisories may be extended.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

No changes were introduced to the beach forecast. NDBC buoy 41043 continues to indicate a gradual decrease in swell energy. This has been reflected in the San Juan and Rincon buoys, showing significant wave heights fluctuating between 5 and 6 feet and periods at 11 to 12 seconds overnight, meaning that breaking waves are fluctuating between 7 and 11 feet can be expected along the surf zone but will likely continue to subside early this morning. Thus, the High Risk of Rip Currents will continue from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, Vieques, St Thomas, St John, Adjacent Islands and St Croix through at least tonight.

By this weekend, the risk should remain moderate for most beaches across the islands due to strengthening winds, but beachgoers should remain cautious as life-threatening rip currents can be present in the surf zone. The risk of rip current may increase mid next week.

For safety, always check local conditions before swimming. Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches exposed to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard, never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm, do not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ010.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ011-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ712-716- 723.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ726-733- 741.

Small Craft Advisory until noon AST today for AMZ742-745.