textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 PM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

* A moderate risk of rip currents will prevail tonight across exposed coastlines.

* Showers are expected across the islands, with activity focusing over eastern and southeastern areas during the morning and shifting to the western interior during the afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures will persist through the rest of the week, with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal and urban areas.

* Marine and coastal conditions are expected to deteriorate beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend, becoming increasingly hazardous.

* For the U.S Virgin Islands, variable weather conditions will persist during the period.

Short Term(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 150 PM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

During the morning hours, cloudy skies and showers continued across eastern Puerto Rico, while more tranquil conditions persisted elsewhere. Based on radar estimates since midnight, maximum rainfall accumulations of around 2 to 3 inches were observed between Maunabo and Rio Grande. This rainfall resulted in some flooding issues: the first in Naguabo, where the Rio Blanco overflowed its banks, affecting PR-191 and PR-31 near Exit 22, and the second in Rio Grande, where the Rio Grande overflowed, impacting Sector Galateo and resulting in road closures. Other areas, including Guayama, Yabucoa, Las Piedras, and Juncos, recorded around an inch of rainfall in localized spots. The USVI experienced some passing showers, but no significant accumulations have been recorded at this time. Winds have been mainly from the southeast at around 10 to 15 mph, with some higher gusts. Daytime maximum temperatures are ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s across low-elevation, urban, and coastal areas, and from the upper 70s to the low 80s in the mountainous region. Across the USVI, temperatures are fluctuating the upper 80s.

As we move into the early afternoon hours, cloudiness has been increasing across Puerto Rico, accompanied by light showers moving from the interior into northern areas under a southeasterly flow driven by surface high pressure over the central to eastern Atlantic. According to the latest precipitable water (PWAT) satellite derived imagery and the 12Z TJSJ sounding, an air mass with values between 1.5 and 1.6 inches is dominating the region, which is considered near normal for this time of year. Under this flow pattern, ample moisture will continue to pool over the region, enhancing showery weather from time to time. Combined with diurnal heating and local effects, another round of strong afternoon convection is expected across northwestern municipalities of Puerto Rico. Consequently, a limited to elevated risk of flooding persists in that area, with the potential for ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas, as well as flooding in urban areas, roads, and small streams. Additionally, thunderstorms remain possible, as 500 mb temperatures are in the 25th percentile, which could further enhance convective activity.

By Wednesday and Thursday, a similar pattern will persist, but models agree that rainfall coverage and accumulations will be lower compared to recent days. The 250 mb heights and 500 mb temperatures are expected to increase, while 700 to 500 mb relative humidity values will decrease, bringing some added stability. Even so, with sufficient moisture and prevailing wind flow, showers will continue to affect windward sectors during the night and morning hours, followed by afternoon convection across northwestern Puerto Rico. This will maintain a localized limited to elevated flood risk across the northwestern quadrant of the island. Over the USVI, passing showers overnight from time to time, but overall sunny conditions.

In the short term, warmer-than-normal temperatures will persist, as reflected in the 925 mb temperature guidance, which remain in the 75th percentile over the next few days. As a result, a limited heat risk will continue across low elevation and urban areas of the islands.

LONG TERM(Friday through Tuesday)

Issued at 425 AM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

Conditions will become relatively stable through the long term period. Expect isolated to scattered showers, mainly during the afternoon hours due to daytime heating. Activity will be focused across western and interior Puerto Rico, with minimal impacts elsewhere. Overall rainfall coverage and intensity should be lower than previous days. Winds will remain from the east-southeast, continuing to bring typical pockets of moisture into the region, from time to time. Model guidance continues to suggests the gradual return to a wetter and more unstable pattern. An approaching deep- layered trough combined with above-normal moisture could lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the region, particularly from Monday onwards.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions will persist along all TAF sites during the period. Some TSRA to SHRA might result in a brief MVFR condition due to reduced VIS and lower ceilings, affecting the FL020 to FL050 from 07/18Z til 07/23Z at TJBQ. VCSH is expected at the remaining TAF sites. Winds will persist from E-SE up to 3 KM at 15 knots or less, diminishing at 07/23Z, becoming VRB and light.

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

A broad surface high-pressure system extending from the Central Atlantic into the Caribbean will mainly bring moderate trades across the local waters. Some hazardous marine conditions remain across the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage until 6 PM AST. After that, conditions will briefly improve, with seas mostly up to 6 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters and lower in the coastal waters. Another weak northeasterly swell is forecast to arrive across the Atlantic waters, likely resulting in hazardous marine conditions along the coast. By Friday, model guidance suggests a significant long-period northerly swell will arrive locally, resulting in hazardous marine and coastal conditions. Additionally, on Saturday into Sunday, surface winds will briefly become lighter and from the east as an induced surface trough moves north of the local region.

During the period, localized hazardous marine conditions will be present, mostly near thunderstorms that develop over the local waters. For more information about the marine forecast, please visit www.weather.gov/sju/marine.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 150 PM AST Tue Apr 7 2026

A broad surface high-pressure system extending from the Central Atlantic into the Caribbean will mainly bring moderate trades across the local waters. This will result in breaking waves between 4 and 5 feet along all the coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Therefore, there is a moderate risk of rip currents across all the coastal areas tonight. Conditions will deteriorate on Wednesday, when energy arrives across the northern and eastern sections, resulting in breaking waves up to 6 feet along the north and northeast coast. Conditions will deteriorate further on Friday when a northerly swell arrives, increasing breaking waves and resulting in life-threatening rip currents and, in some areas, beach erosion. Residents and visitors are encouraged to check the latest beach conditions before heading to the beach at eather.gov/sju and www.weather.gov/beachforecast.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711-723.