textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

* Windy conditions are forecast for the rest of the weekend into the upcoming workweek.

* Hazardous marine conditions with seas up to 7 feet; therefore, small craft operators should exercise caution. * Above-normal temperatures will continue across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands over the next several days. * There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all exposed beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Short Term(This evening through Monday)

Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

Mostly fair weather conditions prevailed across the islands today under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Fast-moving showers passed across portions of eastern and southeastern Puerto Rico during the morning; however, Doppler radar estimated minimal accumulations. Winds gradually increased throughout the morning to between 15 and 22 mph, with stronger gusts reaching 31 mph at the Henry E. Rohlsen International Airport in St. Croix. Additionally, CARICOOS buoys located over the Anegada Passage, south of St. John, and north of Vieques reported maximum wind gusts of up to 34 mph. It was a warm day, with maximum temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s across lower elevations and from the upper 70s to low 80s across higher terrain.

The short-term forecast remains on track as the Azores High continues to dominate the local weather pattern for the next several days. As this high strengthens over the central Atlantic, it will promote breezy to locally windy conditions with east-southeast to southeast winds through at least late Monday, after which winds are expected to shift from the east. Over the next few days, a mid-to- upper level ridge will maintain stable and dry conditions aloft.

Under this pattern, trade winds will drag pockets of moisture across the area, bringing occasional fast-moving showers, particularly during the morning hours. Afternoon showers are also expected each day due to the combination of daytime heating and local effects across portions of the interior and the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. A few showers cannot be ruled out across the San Juan metro area due to the development of the "El Yunque" streamer. Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain near to above normal over the next few days, resulting in warmer-than-average temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the week.

Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)

Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

At the beginning of the long-term period, a broad surface high- pressure system will be positioned over the northeastern Atlantic, while another builds across the western Atlantic. This pattern will promote mainly easterly winds on Tuesday, shifting to predominantly northeasterly winds for the remainder of the period. As the pressure gradient tightens across our region, breezy to windy conditions are likely from Tuesday onward. As a result, winds will be one of the primary weather concerns. The wind risk will fluctuate from limited to elevated, particularly along coastal areas of the islands. Residents should secure loose outdoor objects, as items may be blown around or damaged.

The latest model guidance suggests that moisture content will remain variable, oscillating between near-seasonal levels and slightly above normal as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow. Precipitable water values are expected to range between 1.20 and 1.60 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers, particularly during the overnight and morning hours across windward sectors, followed by afternoon convection each day over interior and western Puerto Rico. Fast-moving showers driven by strong winds should reduce rainfall accumulation and therefore limit the flood potential.

Around midweek, upper-level dynamics will become more favorable, with improved ventilation and cooler temperatures aloft (around -9 degrees C). These conditions could support a few isolated thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon, if convection develops. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail, with passing showers mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also remain a primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the islands.

The 925 mb temperature outlook indicates above-normal values at the beginning of the period, followed by a decrease to near-average levels for the remainder of the forecast. Daytime maximum temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid-80s across lower elevations of the islands and from the mid-70s across higher elevations.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today across all TAF sites. Fast moving passing SHRA/-SHRA will continue to move across the islands, resulting in VCSH at TJSJ/TJBQ/TJPS between 28/18-23z. ESE winds at 15-20 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations thru 28/23z, and gradually diminishing overnight at 5-10 kt thru 01/13z.

MARINE

Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

A broad surface high pressure system dominating the Atlantic basin and the Caribbean will result in moderate to locally fresh east- southeast winds for the rest of today. These winds will generate choppy seas up to 7 feet across the offshore waters, and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until Sunday morning. Windy conditions will persist through the remainder of the week as another broad surface high builds over the western to central Atlantic early next workweek, sustaining fresh to strong winds across the region. Expect east-southeast winds to gradually back to the east-northeast by midweek. Overall, these conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas across the regional waters through the weekend and into early next week, especially across the Atlantic and Caribbean offshore waters and the local passages.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 143 PM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

Windy conditions are forecast to persist through the rest of the weekend as a broad surface high pressure system remains anchored across the Central Atlantic and extends into the Caribbean. This pattern will continue to promote breezy to locally windy conditions, resulting in choppy seas and an elevated risk of rip currents. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected across the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as across the U.S. Virgin Islands. While not all beaches will experience hazardous conditions, life-threatening rip currents remain possible, particularly near piers, jetties, and reef channels. Similar marine and coastal conditions are forecast to continue from Sunday into the upcoming workweek as the pressure gradient remains tight. Beachgoers should exercise caution, especially along exposed beaches where breaking waves will be rough and persistent. Looking ahead, another northerly swell is likely to arrive by midweek next week, which could further deteriorate coastal conditions and potentially increase the risk of dangerous rip currents once again, particularly along northern-facing shores.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-723.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ733.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ741.