textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue along the Atlantic coast and north and west-facing beaches in PR and the USVI, with life-threatening rip currents, dangerous breaking waves, and a risk of coastal flooding in low-lying areas.

* Periods of showers will continue today across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as lingering frontal moisture and northeasterly winds promote moisture pooling, resulting in a limited to elevated flooding risk.

* Near-normal to slightly cooler temperatures persist through Thursday, with cool overnight lows in the mountains and valleys and seasonable daytime highs along the coast.

* Another northerly swell is expected this weekend into early next week, which may prolong or renew hazardous coastal and marine conditions.

Short Term(Today through Friday)

Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions were observed overnight across the Atlantic Coastline and the north-and west-facing beaches due to dangerous breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents. The remnants of a frontal boundary promoted mostly cloudy skies and showery weather across portions of PR`s northern half and the USVI once again overnight. Winds were mainly from the northeast to east to northeast at 15 to 20 mph with gusts between 25 and 35 mph. Low temperatures were in the low 60s or even the upper 50s in the mountains of PR, and in the low to mid 70s along the coast of PR and the USVI.

The remnants of an old frontal boundary, combined with abundant moisture, will continue to affect the northeastern Caribbean through late tonight. Northeasterly winds will promote moisture pooling over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through late tonight. By early Thursday morning, winds will gradually shift more from the east and east-southeast as the remnants of the front dissipate.

Under this weather pattern, residents across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands can expect a limited to elevated risk of flooding today. A limited flooding risk means ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas, with a low chance of urban and small stream flooding. An elevated flooding risk indicates flooding of urban areas, roads, small streams, and washes, with a low chance of isolated flash flooding.

A high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will promote a more southeasterly to southerly wind flow by Friday. As a result, precipitable water values are forecast to decrease from around 1.9 inches to near 1.3 inches, leading to lower rain chances and moisture becoming more confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are expected to remain near or slightly below normal through at least Thursday. Overnight lows along the coast will range from the upper 60s to the low 70s, while mountain and valley locations may see temperatures drop into the mid-50s to low 60s. Daytime high temperatures along the coast are forecast to reach the mid-80s, with highs in the mountains and valleys generally in the mid to upper 70s.

Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)

Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

Conditions from next weekend into early next week will be influenced by the arrival of another deep polar trough and its associated frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and elevate the flood risk. Current guidance suggests the front will pass on Saturday, with the trough lingering through the weekend and increasing moisture values to above-normal levels near 1.8 inches. At this time, the flood risk on Saturday remains from limited to elevated, then limited on Sunday. Low-level winds are expected to remain very light on Saturday, which could result in slow moving showers and localized ponding. From Sunday through midweek, winds are forecast to increase and turn from the north- northeast as a strong high-pressure system builds across the western Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient across the region. Areas exposed to northerly and northeasterly flow will have the highest rain chances as showers are advected inland.

By early next week, moisture levels are expected to remain near seasonal norms, then slightly increase from Tuesday through Wednesday as the high shifts farther east into the Atlantic and lifts the remnant frontal boundary, allowing enhanced moisture convergence over the region. Additionally, mid to upper-level are expected to become more dynamically favorable as an upper level trough swings across the area.

Temperature guidance indicates seasonal to below normal temperatures, with the coolest conditions expected on Sunday. Please continue to monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

SHRA/-SHRA will continue across terminals with brief MVFR possible. Winds will range mainly from the NE-ENE between 10 and 20 kt with gusts around 30 kt or even higher. This weather pattern will persist throughout the day as the frontal boundary move across the region. BKN/OVC cigs FL020FL070 will continue. Afternoon convection will developed across the interior and southwest PR aft 04/15z. Winds will turn more from the E-ESE by late tonight into early Thursday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

A high pressure system moving eastward into the central Atlantic today will promote moderate to fresh northeasterly winds, veering to the east and eventually to the southeast by Thursday. A lingering frontal boundary and associated moisture over the region will continue to produce periods of showers, while lifting later today. Meanwhile, a long-period northerly to northwesterly swell will maintain seas of 7 to 10 feet, creating hazardous conditions for small craft. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters through at least late tonight, and for the Atlantic offshore and coastal waters through at least noon Thursday. Another strong northerly swell is possible early next week, which may once again deteriorate marine conditions.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

Meanwhile, hazardous marine and coastal conditions persist along the Atlantic coastline due to a long-period northerly swell. A High Surf Advisory, Coastal Flood Advisory, and a High Risk of Rip Currents remain in effect. A High Risk of Rip Currents means life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone. A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that flooding in low-lying coastal areas is possible. A High Surf Advisory means dangerous breaking waves may produce localized beach erosion and hazardous swimming conditions. Although the swell will gradually subside through the workweek, dangerous rip current conditions are expected to persist. Another swell will arrive by the upcoming weekend and early next week, prolonging some coastal hazards.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001- 002-005-008-010>012.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ011-013.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ011.

VI...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ723-726- 733-735-741-742-745.