textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 248 PM AST Sun Feb 8 2026

* A variable weather pattern will persist through the upcoming hours and into the nighttime period as moisture and cloudiness associated with a frontal boundary linger across the islands. Mostly minor showers are forecast, with only a limited flood threat across north and northeastern sections of Puerto Rico.

* Some improvement in weather conditions is expected on Monday as moisture and cloudiness shift south into the Caribbean, allowing for periods of sunshine and limited shower activity.

* A long period northerly swell will continue moving across the local waters, resulting in building seas and hazardous coastal conditions. As a result, a High Surf Advisory will be in effect across the north coast of Puerto Rico beginning tomorrow. In addition, a High Rip Current Risk statement and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, weather conditions on Monday will remain variable as cloudiness and moisture associated with the frontal boundary persist near the islands. Although widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated, frequent showers may lead to ponding of water on roadways.

Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 248 PM AST Sun Feb 8 2026

Weather conditions remained variable throughout the morning. Radar and satellite imagery showed mostly cloudy skies across all the islands, with frequent light to moderate, slow-moving showers across the north and northeastern sections of Puerto Rico, particularly in municipalities across the metro area. According to Doppler radar rainfall estimates, showers from the early morning hours, combined with early afternoon showers, left almost 2 inches of rain in localized areas, with mostly near 1 inch across the rest of the area. At 1 PM, light showers were observed affecting municipalities between Manati and Fajardo. Surface winds persisted from the north up to 12 mpg with some gusty winds near the coastal area. Daytime temperatures ranged from the low to mid 80s across the coastal and urban areas to the mid to upper 70s across the mountains.

Weather conditions will remain unsettled through the rest of the afternoon and extend into the early nighttime hours as cloudiness and moisture associated with a frontal boundary continue shifting southward across the Caribbean. During the remainder of the afternoon, winds will prevail mainly from the north, helping to push cloudiness across northern sections of the area and resulting in light showers through the early nighttime hours. This activity is expected to remain light with limited rainfall accumulations; however, wet roadways may lead to hazardous driving conditions. From Monday through Tuesday, a more stable surface pattern is expected as a high pressure system located over the west-central Atlantic continues to promote a northerly wind flow across the region. Under this pattern, moisture associated with the frontal band will shift farther south into the Caribbean, allowing a drier air mass to establish over the area. Precipitable water values are expected to range between 0.90 and 1.00 inches based on satellite-derived imagery, which will significantly limit shower activity across the islands during this period. Despite the overall stable pattern, a few passing showers cannot be ruled out, particularly across northern Puerto Rico and interior mountainous areas.

Temperature-wise: On Monday and Tuesday, a northerly wind flow will prevail across the region, enhancing much cooler temperatures across the islands. As a result, residents can expect slightly cooler daytime temperatures, followed by pleasant nighttime conditions, with lows reaching the lower 60s across mountainous areas and even cooler in some localized locations. Across urban and coastal areas, low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Issued at 248 PM AST Sun Feb 8 2026

A building high-pressure system over the western Atlantic and a stationary frontal boundary to the east will maintain moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds through late Wednesday. As the high pressure shifts toward the eastern Atlantic, winds will gradually veer from the southeast. This shift will lift lingering moisture associated with the remnants of the frontal boundary from Caribbean waters into the region from Thursday through at least Saturday.

On Thursday, as moisture levels from the frontal remnants increase, precipitable water (PWAT) values are expected to rise from below- normal levels of 0.80 inches to near 1.75 inches (above climatological normals). Wind speeds are also expected to decrease as they transition from the southeast. Under this scenario, showers are anticipated over portions of eastern and southern Puerto Rico, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands, during the morning hours. This will be followed by afternoon convective activity across northern and northwestern Puerto Rico, including the San Juan metro area. This activity poses a limited flooding risk, with hazards including ponding of water on roadways and in low-drainage areas, and a low chance of urban and small-stream flooding.

By the end of the period, another frontal boundary and its associated pre-frontal trough will approach, once again increasing the potential for rainfall across the region. Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain below climatological levels through the first half of the long-term period, before rising on Friday in response to the southerly wind flow and abundant moisture. Consequently, warmer temperatures are expected to return by next weekend. Residents and visitors are advised to monitor local weather updates and plan accordingly, particularly if attending outdoor pre- Valentine's Day celebrations.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 248 PM AST Sun Feb 8 2026

Conditions at the TAF sites will remain between VFR and briefly MVFR. For the rest of today into night hours, persistent cloudiness affecting ceilings between FL020 and FL080, resulting in lower VIS. Some brief VCSH and -RA still forecast across TIST, TISX & TJSJ for this last one at least until 09/00Z. Winds will continue from the N up to 13 knots and gusty winds up to 25 knots, becoming more light and variable at 08/23Z and increasing again at 09/13Z from the N with gusty winds.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 248 PM AST Sun Feb 8 2026

No changes to the inherited forecast. The last data from buoy 41046 shows the energy from the upcoming north-northwesterly swell with a wave height of 13ft at 11 seconds from the NNW. Therefore a High Risk of Rip Currents continues tonight for the northwestern, northern to northeastern Puerto Rico. The high risk of rip currents spreads tomorrow to Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John, and then likely to Culebra, western PR, Vieques and St. Croix on Monday. This rip current threat will continue through at least next midweek. High surf conditions, including localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions, are likely on Monday and Tuesday as a larger, long period northwesterly swell reaches the region and seas build between 8 and 12 feet with periods of around 13 to 15 seconds. These high surf conditions may persist through midweek. High surf and coastal flood advisories are likely to be issued tomorrow. Beachgoers are urged to continue monitoring forecast updates and to follow all local advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local officials as conditions continue to deteriorate.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 PM AST Tuesday for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ001.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 PM AST Tuesday for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-712-716- 741-742.