textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

* Hazardous seas, life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions are expected through at least Friday along the Atlantic waters and passages, and along the north-facing beaches of the islands.

* Breezy conditions and passing trade wind showers expected for the next few days.

* Across the USVI, breezy, and quick passing showers can be expected at times.

* Minor concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to continue today over the region.

Short Term(Today through Friday)

Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

The short-term period will be characterized by a transition toward a drier, breezier tradewind pattern, followed by a slight rebound in shallow moisture by the end of the workweek. Today, a drier air mass filtering in will begin to limit shower intensity in general. The GFS indicates precipitable water (PWAT) values briefly dipping to 0.90 inches before settling near the 25th percentile (around 1.2 to 1.4 inches) later in the day. Although PWAT values will remain near climatological levels, mid-level drying and traces of Saharan dust will promote more stable conditions, particularly during the morning hours. This mid-level drying is evident in the 700mb-500mb relative humidity layer, which drops noticeably through Thursday. By this afternoon, convection should be limited, with isolated to scattered showers, favoring western Puerto Rico due to local effects and daytime heating. Any rainfall accumulations are expected to be localized and less than an inch, reducing the flood threat compared to yesterday.

As the week progresses, a surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will strengthen, tightening the pressure gradient and promoting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds. The 925mb wind speeds jump from 1015 knots early this morning to 1822 knots through Thursday and Friday. By Thursday, these stronger trades will result in faster-moving showers embedded within the flow, mainly affecting windward coastal areas overnight and in the morning. Afternoon convection across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico will remain possible but should be less widespread due to the drier mid-level air. Overall, flooding concerns should remain limited given the progressive nature of the showers and decreasing moisture content, with PWAT values trending near to below climatology normals.

For Friday, the broad surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic will remain the dominant weather feature, keeping moderate to fresh easterly winds in place. However, the global model guidance shows a rebound in lower-level moisture, with PWAT values climbing back into the 1.40 to 1.70 inch range and corresponding spikes in the 850-700mb relative humidity (7080%). Under this wind pattern, these patches of shallow moisture moving across the islands will enhance cloudiness and support a showery pattern once again, especially across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours, and better organized afternoon convection over west/northwest PR.

Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)

Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A strong surface high pressure system over the north-central Atlantic will dominate the regional pattern through the period, maintaining fresh to occasionally strong low-level winds across the islands. Winds will generally range from east-southeast to southeast from Saturday through Monday, becoming more easterly by Tuesday as the high shifts. This wind regime will support slightly warmer daytime temperatures over the weekend, followed by modest cooling as the easterly flow becomes established. A weak trade wind cap inversion, combined with slightly drier air and lower precipitable water over the weekend, will limit shower coverage. On Monday, moisture levels are expected to increase, and a weak upper-level short-wave trough to the north, with stronger jet-level winds overhead, will create conditions favorable for eroding the trade wind cap and supporting deeper moisture and showers. Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages overall.

From a hazard perspective, breezy to locally windy conditions will persist, which may make outdoor activities or small-scale operations more difficult. Showers may become heavier and more widespread Monday, particularly across eastern and west-northwestern Puerto Rico. Minor flooding in urban and low-lying areas is possible, especially during the afternoon hours, though widespread flooding is not expected. The combination of strong low-level winds and fast- moving showers may also produce brief heavy rainfall, localized impacts, and gusty conditions that could affect exposed areas.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, trade wind SHRA could move at times across the area terminals, causing mostly VCSH. At TJBQ, VCTS expected btw 25/16-22z due to iso TSRA developing over western PR. The wind will prevail from the east at 12-17 knots, with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations aft 25/13z.

MARINE

Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A long-period north-northwesterly swell will spread across the Atlantic waters and passages through Friday, building seas between 6 and 10 feet. Hazardous seas are expected to linger through Friday, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all Atlantic waters and local passages. Moderate to fresh trades will return through the end of the week, as a surface high pressure strengthens over the Central Atlantic.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A long-period north-northwesterly swell is expected to arrive and spread across the local Atlantic waters and passages today through at least Friday. A Rip Current Statement is in effect through Friday afternoon due to life-threatening rip currents along northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In addition, a High Surf Advisory will be in effect from 6 AM AST this morning though 6 AM AST Friday, as we anticipate large breaking waves and minor beach erosion, particularly hazardous for beachgoers. Beach conditions will start to improve by Saturday as the swell gradually subsides.

For safety, always check local conditions before swimming. Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches exposed to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard, never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm, do not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010>013.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM AST Friday for PRZ001-002-005-008-010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Friday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-741-742.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for AMZ745.