textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions will persist through midweek across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as strong high pressure over the western Atlantic tightens the local pressure gradient.

* Hazardous marine and coastal conditions will continue through much of the week. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for most local waters, and a High Risk of Rip Currents is expected for many northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Afternoon showers across parts of the interior and western Puerto Rico could lead to ponding on roadways and minor flooding in poorly drained areas.

Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

This morning, we had variable conditions from mostly sunny skies across the PR's western half to partly and mostly cloudy skies across portions of the eastern half of PR, and the US Virgin Islands. Additionally, an easterly perturbation slowly increases the frequency and intensity of showers across the region, first over the regional waters, then across the US Virgin Islands, and then moving further inland across PR's eastern half. By the afternoon, showers developed across the mountainous interior and western Puerto Rico. Winds were mainly from the east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph, with gusts between 25 and 40 mph. Maximum temperatures ranged from the mid- to upper 80s along the coast to the lower 80s across the mountains.

For this afternoon, showers will develop across the interior and western Puerto Rico, where ponding of water in poorly drained areas is possible. Whilst the winds will continue to bring occasional showers across the windward locations, meaning the USVI and eastern northeast PR. By this evening, moisture will drop, limiting shower activity, though some showers will arrive occasionally across these windward locations.

A mid-level high pressure will hold across the local Caribbean Region, promoting somewhat stable conditions over PR and the USVI. At the surface, a strong high pressure system will spread from the western to the central Atlantic, tightening the local pressure gradient and generating breezy to windy conditions across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands over the short term.

Under the aforementioned weather pattern, the primary hazards during this period will be wind-related conditions, resulting in breezy to windy conditions, particularly across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the coastal areas of Puerto Rico. Also, easterlies perturbations will arrive each day, occasionally promoting showery weather, mainly across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, we expect periods without rain, under pleasant tropical conditions.

Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

A broad surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic will dominate the regional pattern early in the period. This will maintain easterly trade winds on Wednesday, gradually veering to east-southeasterly and south-southeasterly by Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes with a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest. A mid-level ridge will persist through Friday before being displaced southeastward by a broad trough dipping into the northern Caribbean late in the period. Moisture will remain mostly shallow through midweek, generally below 700 mb, briefly extending near 650 mb Thursday afternoon into the night before gradually deepening toward the weekend. As a result, conditions will transition from relatively drier-than-normal on Wednesday to more variable moisture Thursday and Friday, with a gradual increase in shower activity by Saturday. Temperatures will remain within typical seasonal ranges, with slightly warmer afternoons locally and a gradual warming trend into the weekend likely responding to the increasing southerly wind component.

Hazards through most of the period will be mainly wind-driven. Breezy to occasionally windy conditions early in the period may create an elevated wind risk across exposed and coastal areas and will promote fast-moving trade wind showers across windward sectors, particularly overnight and during the morning hours. These showers may occasionally produce brief downpours but will generally move quickly across the area. As winds weaken and moisture deepens toward the weekend, hazards may gradually shift toward a slightly higher risk of locally heavier showers, which could increase the potential for excessive rainfall and localized ponding in urban and poorly drained areas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites during the period. E winds up to 25 knots with gusty winds up to 32 knots will persists at until 15/23Z, when gusty winds become less, increasing again at 16/14ZZ. VCSH to -RA will persist for the rest of the day across TJPS, TJSJ & TJBQ until 16/00Z. Brief periods of lower VIS and short- lower ceilings are expected until 16/00Z, with the actual shower activity.

MARINE

Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

A strong high-pressure system will move eastward from the western to the central Atlantic, tightening the local pressure gradient. This will lead to fresh to strong easterly winds. As a result, mariners can expect choppy to rough seas across the regional waters for much of the week. Additionally, there will be occasional periods of moderate to heavy rain showers embedded within the wind flow.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 145 PM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

Beach conditions will remain somewhat dangerous for inexperienced beachgoers, as strengthening easterly winds will generate choppy to rough seas across regional waters, increasing wave action along exposed beaches. As a result, the risk of life- threatening rip currents will range from moderate to high along many exposed beaches of the islands.

Beachgoers should remain alert to changing coastal conditions and continue monitoring the latest forecasts and statements. For additional information, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for PRZ001>003- 005-008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-723.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ712-735.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ716-726-733-741.