textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 214 PM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

* Variable weather conditions will persist today into Thursday, with mostly showery mornings, followed by localized showers in the interior and northwestern areas.

* From Friday into early Saturday, moisture will increase, and the frequency of showers is still expected to increase. Especially across eastern sections, including the San Juan metro area.

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents tonight and tomorrow, increasing to high on Saturday into Sunday for the north coast of Puerto Rico and Culebra.

* Above-normal temperatures are expected over the next few days under a southeasterly wind flow. Some areas will experience slightly warmer temperatures due to changes in surface patterns.

Short Term(This evening through Friday)

Issued at 214 PM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

A variable weather pattern prevailed during the morning hours. Upper-level cloudiness predominated across much of the region, resulting in a cloud deck that limited good periods of sunshine from 6 AM to 10 AM. As of 11 AM, cloud breaks across some western and interior sections, allowing a brief period of sunshine and development of cloudiness across eastern and some interior sections of Puerto Rico. Some brief showers were observed across interior sections, with minimal rainfall accumulation. Daytime temperatures remained slightly warmer across the coastal and urban areas. According to recent data from unofficial stations, temperatures ranged from 89 to 93 degrees across the north coast of Puerto Rico, with lower temperatures in the interior. Winds remained from the southeast from 8 to 12 mph with sea breeze variations.

For the rest of the day, surface conditions will remain similar, dominated mostly by the broad surface high pressure extending from the Central Atlantic into the Caribbean. These surface conditions will allow persistent southeasterly winds, which will promote shallow moisture patches along the islands from the Caribbean. Given the expected conditions, passing showers are expected across the offshore Caribbean and Atlantic waters. On Thursday, winds will persist from the southeast, and an increase in Relative Humidity at 700-500 MB is forecast. Therefore, isolated to scattered showers are forecast along the southeast coast of Puerto Rico, moving into the eastern interior. According to the Hi- Resolution model, that shower activity will remain on the light side for rainfall accumulations, limiting the flood threat. On Friday, as the frontal boundary located over the western Atlantic moves eastward, the induced surface trough will shift the surface winds toward the east. This change will focus the shower development on the interior, western interior, and eastern sections. Compared to the model run in previous days, Friday shows as slightly drier; however, some diffluence at the upper levels would aid the vertical development. In terms of thunderstorm activity, the Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) suggests some low chance of one or two isolated thunderstorms with the heaviest shower activity across the interior sections.|

Long Term (Saturday through next Tuesday)

Issued at 505 AM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

By Saturday, the interaction between a surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic and a surface frontal boundary over the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in east to northeast breezy to locally windy conditions across the area. These winds may cause loose outdoor items to be blown around, particularly in exposed and coastal locations. Moisture content is expected to be below average during the early morning hours as a drier air mass, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.10 inches, moves across the region. Moisture will gradually increase during the day, allowing for passing morning trade wind showers over windward areas and afternoon convection from the interior into western Puerto Rico. Passing showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, activity should move quickly due to stronger winds, limiting rainfall accumulations and keeping the flood risk low.

On Sunday morning, winds will remain breezy but are expected to gradually weaken throughout the day. Sunday is anticipated to be the driest day of the period, with precipitable water values decreasing to between 1.2 and 1.5 inches and patches of near- average moisture moving across the region. These conditions will support more variable but seasonable weather, with passing trade wind showers and limited afternoon convective development due to local effects. From Monday through Wednesday, a subtropical jet streak near 250 mb will establish a more favorable dynamic pattern, supporting upper-level divergence and the development of an induced surface trough. As a result, an increase in shower activity is expected across the forecast area under an easterly to northeasterly low-level wind flow. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will also increase as mid to upper-level temperatures cool. Based on the latest model guidance, temperatures aloft are expected to decrease from around -5 degrees C on Monday to near -7.5 degrees C by Wednesday. Forecast updates should continue to be monitored as uncertainty remains. At this time, each afternoon from early to midweek carries a limited flood risk, mainly due to the potential for ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate above-normal surface temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the long-term period, at least from Saturday through Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conds will prevail across all TAF sites thru the fcst period. Brief periods of MVFR will remain possible at TJBQ in passing showers through about 14/22z. Sfc winds from the ESE at 10 to 15 with sea breeze variations and higher gusts, becoming light and variable overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 214 PM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

No changes to the inherited forecast. A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will continue to result in east-southeasterly winds across the local waters and some coastal areas. As a result, seas will remain up to 5 feet tonight and tomorrow. Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate late Friday into the upcoming weekend as a northerly swell combines with increasing winds, resulting in choppy to hazardous seas. For those days, seas will build up to 7-8 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters and the local passages. Small craft operators are urged to stay tuned for future small craft advisories for the upcoming weekend.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 214 PM AST Wed Jan 14 2026

No changes to the inherited forecast. There is a moderate risk of rip currents along all the northern-exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Conditions will remain similar for tomorrow, deteriorating for Saturday and Sunday, when energy from a northerly swell moves in and results in breaking waves along all the north and northeast coasts of Puerto Rico, including Culebra. As a result, a high risk of rip current is forecast for the upcoming weekend.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...None. VI...None. AM...None.