textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 PM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents and dangerous surf continue across the Atlantic beaches of Puerto Rico (Rincon to Fajardo) and Culebra through late tonight. The high rip currents will continue on Saturday along the Atlantic Coastline.

* St. Thomas, St. John, and nearby islands will continue to observe life-threatening rip currents through at least Saturday evening. Thus, a high risk of rip currents is in effect. * Near to above-normal temperatures will continue through the next few days. However, mostly clear skies will allow for nighttime radiational cooling overnight.

* Rain chances increase by midweek next week, mainly across the interior and western Puerto Rico, from Wednesday through Thursday. Please, actively monitor forecasts for updates as conditions become more unsettled.

Short Term(This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 230 PM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

Mostly clear skies prevailed today, with maximum temperatures in the mid-80s to the upper-80s and heat indices in the mid-90s across PR and the US Virgin Islands. Winds were from the east at 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts and sea-breeze variations. A few showers moved across the local waters, and some of them moved across the windward locations.

Hazardous coastal conditions continue today as dangerous breaking waves batter the Atlantic Coastline, causing life-threatening rip currents and very dangerous surf conditions for beachgoers from Rincon to Fajardo, and Culebra. At the same time, St Thomas, St John, and the adjacent islands have a high risk of rip currents. These hazardous coastal conditions will last through at least Saturday.

Local weather effects and sea breeze variations will promote limited rainfall across western and interior PR this afternoon and evening. After that, mostly clear skies will prevail overnight. Additionally, wind-driven passing showers will occasionally occur across the windward locations in the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico; elsewhere, showers clear skies. Clear skies will promote nighttime radiational cooling, resulting in lows along the coast in the low to mid-70s, while across the mountains, around the low to mid-60s.

A mid-to-upper-level ridge will promote a relatively stable atmosphere with dry air and subsidence aloft through the short term. At the same time, a surface high pressure will increase local winds, mainly from the east to east-southeast. This wind flow will promote the passage of occasional showers, especially across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands during the morning and overnight. In the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers are expected in the interior and western regions of Puerto Rico, influenced by variations in the sea breeze and local factors. These showers are likely to be shallow due to dry air and subsidence aloft. Overall, mostly fair weather is anticipated to persist through the end of the short-term forecast period.

LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Issued at 438 AM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

The long-term forecast begins with a stable and relatively quiet weather pattern as a broad surface high-pressure system extending across the Central Atlantic into the Caribbean maintains a steady southeasterly wind flow across the islands. This wind pattern will favor warm daytime temperatures, particularly across northern and western Puerto Rico. Precipitable water values between 1.1 and 1.3 inches, mostly from the shallow moisture trapped below 700 mb, will support afternoon convection driven by diurnal heating and local sea breeze convergence, mainly across northwestern Puerto Rico. On Tuesday, surface conditions will gradually shift as a prefrontal trough associated with an approaching frontal boundary moves north of Hispaniola, diminishing the pressure gradient and allowing light and variable winds through Wednesday. This more relaxed flow pattern may enhance local convergence and allow showers to develop more efficiently despite modest moisture availability. Overall rainfall accumulations early in the period should remain limited, with minor ponding possible in urban and poor drainage areas during peak afternoon activity.

By Wednesday, a transition toward a more unsettled pattern is expected as deeper moisture associated with the frontal boundary spreads across the region and low-level winds shift to the east- northeast. Increasing precipitable water values, colder temperatures aloft near 500 mb, and divergence associated with an upper-level trough will enhance instability and vertical development. This setup may support more widespread shower activity, periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, and isolated thunderstorm development, particularly across northern and interior Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Localized flooding in urban and low-lying areas cannot be ruled out if training showers develop. From late Wednesday into Thursday, surface high pressure building from the Western into the Central Atlantic will gradually reestablish moderate easterly trade winds. However, lingering mid-level moisture and pockets of instability may continue to generate passing showers, especially overnight and during the early morning hours across windward areas, followed by afternoon convection across western Puerto Rico. A variable weather pattern is expected to persist into the latter part of the long-term period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected over the next 24 hours across all TAF sites. Brief VCSH are possible during the overnight period across USVI sites & TJSJ. Aft 21/17Z, VCSH will be possible near USVI & TJBQ. Winds becoming lighter aft 20/23Z, then E winds aft 21/14Z at around 13 to 16 kts with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts and typical sea breeze variations.

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

A long-period northerly swell will continue to spread across the local Atlantic waters and passages through late tonight. At the same time, a surface high-pressure system building over the western and central Atlantic will promote light to moderate easterly winds through late tonight, becoming moderate to locally fresh by tonight. Thus, combined moderate to rough seas will result in hazardous conditions for small craft during this period. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect over the Mona Passage, Atlantic offshore and coastal waters through late tonight. A gradual improvement in marine conditions is expected later in the weekend. Another swell could reach the islands by the middle of next week, deteriorating local conditions.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 230 PM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

A long-period northerly swell will continue to promote hazardous coastal conditions along northern-exposed beaches. A High Surf Advisory is in effect through 6 PM AST this evening from Rincon to Fajardo, as well as Culebra, due to large breaking waves up to 10 to 12 feet. A High Risk of Rip Currents (life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone) will also continue for the north-facing beaches of St. Thomas, St John, Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra through at least Saturday night.

Although the risk of rip currents will moderate early next week, another northerly swell will deteriorate coastal conditions once again by the middle of next week. Stay tuned for future updates.

Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to stay out of these exposed waters, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local advisories, warnings, and lifeguard and official guidance. For more information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711-712-741.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ716-742.