textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

* The elevated to significant flood threat is in place through tonight, with an elevated risk continuing through midweek. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall may result in urban and small stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and minor landslides. Residents and visitors should remain alert and avoid rivers, creeks, and other flood-prone areas.

* Marine and coastal conditions remain dangerous due to the arrival of a strong, long-period north to northwesterly swell and increasing northerly winds. High Surf Advisories, a High Rip Current Risk, Small Craft Advisories, as well as a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through late Wednesday. Potential impacts include large breaking waves, life- threatening rip currents, beach erosion, and minor coastal flooding in vulnerable coastal areas. Stay out of the water!

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, shower frequency will increase today, with the highest rainfall potential expected tonight into Tuesday. Therefore, limited to elevated flood potential.

Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Todays weather was dominated by persistent cloudiness and periods of rainfall across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The wettest conditions occurred over Culebra, as well as portions of southern Puerto Rico. The highest rainfall totals were observed over Culebra, where a Flood Advisory was issued after radar estimates indicated between 1 and 2 inches of rain during the morning hours. Throughout the day, localized higher amount were seen in other areas like southeastern PR, but in most rural areas. Trailing moisture behind the frontal boundary allowed showers to continue developing through the day. Limited daytime heating due to extensive cloud cover resulted in temperatures mainly in the 70s across coastal areas, with upper 60s to low 70s across higher elevations. Winds were generally variable in direction. Regarding wind speeds, a shearline started moving across the region just behind the frontal boundary by the late morning increasing winds to around 20 mph with higher gust. These stronger winds resulted in breezy conditions across the islands.

Shower coverage is expected to increase in both frequency and intensity across the local waters and all islands through the rest of today into tomorrow. The wettest period is anticipated over eastern Puerto Rico through the remainder of today, while the U.S. Virgin Islands can expect the most significant rainfall from late tonight into Tuesday. Expected rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher totals, may result in urban and small-stream flooding, as well as flash flooding and isolated minor landslides, particularly across the interior and eastern half of Puerto Rico.

As mentioned in previous discussion, winds are forecast to veer back to an easterly direction as a surface high pressure system builds quickly from the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic on Wednesday,. This wind shift will transport remnant moisture from the frontal boundary back across the region, prolonging unsettled weather conditions through the short-term period. Additional periods of moderate to heavy rainfall over already saturated soils may lead to continued flooding concerns, and the overall risk for flooding is expected to remain elevated.

Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)

Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Lingering moisture associated with the frontal boundary, light southeast winds, and 500 mb temperatures near -7 degrees Celsius will promote the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms again on Thursday, with activity more focused across northwestern Puerto Rico. Slow-moving showers combined with saturated soils could lead to urban and small stream flooding, with flood risk ranging from limited to elevated. By Friday, precipitable water values are expected to decrease significantly, from around 1.8 inches to near 1.2 inches, resulting in lower rain chances. The remainder of the weekend into early next week will be influenced by the arrival of another deep polar trough and its associated frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and flood risk once again. Throughout the weekend, low-level winds are expected to remain very light due to the presence of a col region. From Sunday night into Monday, winds are forecast to gradually increase and shift from the north to northeast as a frontal boundary approaches or passes near the area. Please continue to monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Frontal system and shearline will continue to produce wdspd -SHRA across all terminals with brief MVFR possible. FROPA will result in winds shifting to W-NW, increasing to 15-18 kt with higher gusts, strongest during the aftn. Recent PIREPs rpt MOD TURB, especially nr TJSJ and TIST, associated with LLWS/mech turb in strengthening post- frontal flow. TURB may persist through the night as the frontal boundary continues to mode eastward. BKN/OVC cigs FL020-FL070 expected at times. -TSRA psbl across the area through the fcst period.

MARINE

Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A frontal boundary will continue moving across the regional waters through midweek, resulting in northerly winds strengthening to 20 to 25 knots, with higher gusts possible, through at least Wednesday. These winds will enhance seas and contribute to hazardous marine conditions.

In addition, a large, long-period northwest to northerly swell will spread across the Atlantic waters and passages through midweek. Seas will build rapidly to 10 to 14 feet, with locally higher seas possible, particularly across the Atlantic offshore waters and passages during the early part of the workweek. These conditions will be hazardous to small craft, and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all coastal and offshore waters through at least late Wednesday night. Reduced visibility in passing showers and isolated thunderstorms will also be possible at times.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 131 PM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A large, long-period northwest to northerly swell will continue spreading across the Atlantic waters and passages through midweek. Seas are expected to build rapidly up to 16 feet, with occasional higher seas possible from late this afternoon through Tuesday.

This swell will result in large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions along the southwest to northeast facing beaches of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, including Culebra, Vieques, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. Swell decay from offshore buoys and model guidance suggest surf heights between 17 and 22 feet during the peak of the event.

As a result, a High Surf Warning remains in effect, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued due to the increased risk of coastal flooding during periods of high tide, particularly in low- lying and vulnerable coastal areas. Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is possible, along with beach erosion and overwash near the time of high tides.

The next high tides are expected as follows: In San Juan, 1.01 feet at 9:16 PM AST, and 1.49 feet on Tuesday at 10:29 AM AST; in Carolina/Loiza, 0.88 feet at 9:43 PM AST, and 1.36 feet on Tuesday at 10:33 AM AST; in Arecibo, 1.17 feet at 8:58 PM AST, and 1.80 feet on Tuesday at 9:45 AM AST; in Aguadilla, 0.82 feet at 8:47 PM AST, and 1.36 feet on Tuesday at 9:32 AM AST; in Mayaguez, 0.98 feet at 9:17 PM AST, and 1.35 feet on Tuesday at 10:01 AM AST; in Botany Bay, St. Thomas, 0.93 feet at 9:42 PM AST, and 1.32 feet on Tuesday at 10:16 AM AST.

Life-threatening rip currents are expected at exposed beaches, and conditions will be dangerous for all swimmers. The public is urged to stay out of the water and away from hazardous coastal areas.

For localized and updated rip current information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010>012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010>012.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010>012.

High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ001.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716- 733-735-741-742-745.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM AST Thursday for AMZ723-726.