textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

* The risk of urban and small stream flooding remains elevated across the interior and western parts of Puerto Rico during the weekend.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, expect passing showers at times, with no major hazard threats anticipated at this time.

* Although the northerly swell will continue to subside, the risk of rip currents will remain moderate over the next few days. Therefore, life-threatening rip currents will be possible along the Atlantic shorelines.

Short Term (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands during the morning hours, transitioning to variably cloudy conditions in the afternoon. A few passing showers were observed early this morning, but rainfall totals were minimal. Nevertheless, locally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms have begun to develop. These showers will continue over the next few hours, dissipating by sunset. Temperatures ranged from the mid-80s to around 90 degrees at lower elevations.

A mid- to upper-level trough east of the region will continue to weaken as a deep polar trough over the western Atlantic shifts into the central Atlantic. At lower levels, light to gentle easterly winds will persist across the local islands, supported by a weakening frontal boundary to the north and an associated pre- frontal trough. Winds are expected to veer more toward the east- southeast on Sunday as a weak surface high establishes itself north of the region.

Given the evolving nature of this pattern, the trade winds will continue to transport patches of clouds and showers across the local islands, favoring passing showers over the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Precipitable water values are expected to remain near normal, with the deepest moisture generally staying north of the region. Even so, sufficient low-level moisture, combined with local effects, will support the development of afternoon showers across the western and interior portions of Puerto Rico, driven by sea-breeze convergence and orographic effects.

Therefore, the risk of urban and small stream flooding remains high across the interior and western parts of Puerto Rico during the weekend.

Long Term (Monday through Friday)

Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A surface high pressure centered over the eastern Atlantic will drive the trade winds from the southeast Monday and Tuesday, and then from the east on Wednesday. At the mid and upper levels, a ridge will build over the western Caribbean Sea, bringing a northwesterly dry flow over the region. At the low level, however, the southeasterly flow will lift moisture from the Caribbean into the islands. The global models suggest that this pattern will bring some showers moving into the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico at times, followed by afternoon convection in the afternoon across western Puerto Rico. Since moisture is expected to be shallow in nature, rain should only be locally strong, with a low chance of experiencing urban and small stream flooding.

By the latter part of the week, surface high will migrate from the southeastern portions of the United States into the western Atlantic Ocean. The high will cause the winds to shift from the northeast, while causing temperatures to cool down too. The air mass will be drier too, so the weather will be generally fair, with only a few showers reaching the area at times.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

Brief periods of MVFR conditions will remain possible in and around JSJ/JPS and JBQ through about 14/22Z. After 14/22Z, VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites, with VCSH possible at IST/ISX and JSJ. Easterly winds around 10 knots, becoming light and variable overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A light to gentle easterly wind flow will persist across the local islands, supported by a weakening frontal boundary to the north and an associated pre-frontal trough. Winds are expected to veer more toward the east-southeast on Sunday as a weak surface high establishes north of the region. Although the northerly swell will continue to subside, small craft operators should exercise caution across the Atlantic waters, with seas up to 6 feet.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

Conditions will continue to improve tonight as wave energy gradually dissipates. However, the risk of rip currents will remain moderate over the next few days, with life-threatening rip currents possible along the Atlantic shorelines.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

AM...None.