textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

* Hazardous breaking waves resulting in life-threatening rip currents continue along the north-facing beaches in PR and the northern US Virgin Islands.

* Periods of showers are expected today, as shifting winds promote moisture pooling across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. A limited risk of flooding exists, mainly in urban and poorly drained areas.

* Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate late Saturday into Sunday, as an approaching frontal boundary increases moisture and instability, bringing a renewed chance of cooler temperatures, showers, and localized flooding, especially Saturday night into Sunday.

* Another northerly swell will deteriorate once again, marine and coastal conditions late this weekend into early next week.

Short Term(Today through Saturday)

Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

Dangerous breaking waves continue to affect the Atlantic Coastline overnight, creating life-threatening rip currents along the north- facing beaches in PR and the USVI. As the winds turned easterly, the showery weather persisted across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico overnight, along with cloudy skies. However, the western half of mainland PR has little or no rain. The easterlies were 10 to 15 mph, with gusts around 20 mph. Low temperatures were in the low and mid 60s in the mountains of PR, and in the low to mid 70s along the coast of PR and the USVI.

A surface high-pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain an east-southeast wind flow this morning, veering to southerly by the afternoon and becoming southwesterly by Friday afternoon. By Saturday, an approaching frontal boundary will induce a weak westerly flow, which will shift to north-northwesterly by Saturday evening.

This evolving wind pattern will promote moisture pooling across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands today, resulting in a showery weather pattern and a limited risk of flooding rainfall, particularly in urban areas and poorly drained locations. As winds shift southwesterly, moisture is expected to erode on Friday and during the early hours of Saturday, leading to a temporary reduction in rainfall coverage.

However, as the frontal boundary approaches from the west, moisture is forecast to increase again by Saturday afternoon, with a more unsettled, potentially wetter pattern developing, most likely by late Saturday night. Under this scenario, a limited risk of flooding rainfall is anticipated from Saturday afternoon onward, with localized ponding of water in urban and poorly drained areas. The flooding risk for Saturday will continue to be reassessed as higher- resolution guidance becomes available.

At this time, thunderstorms are not included in the forecast, as current model guidance indicates generally unfavorable atmospheric conditions across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Nevertheless, this potential will be reevaluated in subsequent forecasts, particularly for Saturday night, should atmospheric instability increase.

Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)

Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

The long-term period will begin with the presence of a deep polar trough and its associated frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and elevate the flood risk as it crosses the region. Current meteorological models indicate that the front will move through the area on Sunday. Precipitable water values are expected to increase to near-seasonal to above-normal levels. At this time, the potential for ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas will increase on Sunday across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

From Sunday through midweek, winds are forecast to increase and shift from the north-northeast as a strong high-pressure system builds across the western Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient over the region. By early next week, moisture levels are expected to remain near seasonal norms, then increase slightly from Tuesday through Wednesday as the high shifts farther east into the Atlantic and lifts the remnant frontal boundary, allowing enhanced moisture convergence over the area. Limited flood potential for portions of Puerto Rico and also the USVI. Additionally, mid- to upper-level conditions are expected to become more dynamically favorable as another trough moves across the region.

By Thursday, more typical conditions are expected, driven by available moisture and local effects under a persistent northeasterly wind flow associated with the high-pressure system moving eastward across the central to eastern Atlantic. A mid-level ridge will also begin to establish, bringing increased stability to the region.

Temperature guidance indicates seasonal to below-normal temperatures, with the coolest conditions expected from Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

SHRA/-SHRA will continue to affect most terminals, occasionally resulting in brief MVFR conds, due to reduced ceilings and visibility. E-ESE winds will prevail at 5-15 kt, with higher gusts, veering from SE-S aft 18z into the evening. SHRA will diminish aft 05/23z.

MARINE

Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

A high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will promote moderate southeasterly winds today, gradually veering more from the south by Friday. A dissipating long-period north-northwesterly swell will maintain hazardous conditions for small craft across the northern coastal waters of Puerto Rico until noon today and across the offshore Atlantic through this afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds are expected on Friday and Saturday, then increasing by Sunday in the wake of a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest, along with increased rain potential. Another strong, long-period northerly swell will likely arrive early next week, deteriorating marine conditions and prompting marine hazards again.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 430 AM AST Thu Feb 5 2026

Energy from a dissipating, long-period northerly to north to northwesterly swell will continue to arrive this morning, resulting in hazardous swimming conditions across Atlantic exposed beaches. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the northwest, east, and north-facing coastlines of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through noon today, with breaking waves of around 10 feet. Additional pulses of energy will likely maintain a high risk of rip currents from Friday through the weekend. Another strong northerly swell is likely early next week, once again deteriorating coastal conditions and prompting additional High Surf Advisories. The public is urged to stay out of the water and continue monitoring official forecasts for updates.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008.

High Surf Advisory until noon AST today for PRZ001-002-005-008.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ010-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ010- 012.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ011-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory until noon AST today for AMZ712-716.