textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 136 PM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

* Stable weather conditions will remain for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Across the US Virgin Island and northeastern Puerto Rico sections some isolated showers during the nights and mornings from to night into Tuesday.

* A breezier pattern is expected by midweek, which will enhance occasional trade-wind showers and bring a moderate to high chance of deteriorating marine and coastal conditions.

* Low risk of rip currents today and Monday, increasing to moderate on Tuesday.

Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 136 PM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

Really stable weather conditions prevailed across the islands during the morning hours, with mostly clear skies. A few clouds were observed during the late morning across eastern sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with little to no rainfall activity. At 1 PM, some brief short-live showers were observed across eastern sections of Puerto Rico. Temperatures reached the low to mid-80s across coastal areas, with plenty of sunshine and even fresher air across the mountainous regions.

Stable weather conditions will persist across the islands as the mid-level ridge becomes established over the forecast area and a zonal flow continues at the upper levels. The mid level ridge will continue to result in warmer temperatures at 500 MB. At the lower levels, a surface high- pressure system over the western tropical Atlantic extending into the Caribbean will maintain a moderate east- northeast wind flow through the next few days. From late Monday into Tuesday, as the surface high pressure settled across the islands, some pulses of moisture with PWAT values between 1.2 and 1.3 inches (which remain below climatological normals) reached the area, resulting in an advective pattern that produced showers along the northeastern coastal areas.

Given the expected conditions, a seasonable weather pattern will dominate the forecast cycle with limited afternoon shower development. High temperatures will continue to range from the mid-80s to around 90F across the lower elevations, while nighttime lows in the higher terrain may drop into the mid-50s under clearer skies.

Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)

From previous discussion issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

The long-term period will feature patches of moisture embedded within the trade winds, bringing a moderate chance of occasional showery weather and breezy conditions. By midweek, a surface high- pressure system will be located over the central Atlantic. Aloft, an upper-level trough will shift eastward, allowing ridging to build into the region. PWAT guidance indicates values remaining within the normal to below-normal range through the period, based on November climatology.

Windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands can expect pleasant a low to moderate chance of passing showers throughout the week. There will also be a slight to moderate chance of afternoon showers each day across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico.

By the weekend, another high-pressure system building over the western Atlantic will further tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in even breezier conditions. A gradual increase in PWAT values may lead to higher rain chances, although flooding impacts are not anticipated.

Model guidance suggests that 925-mb temperatures will remain in the normal to below-normal range for this time of year, supporting a continued transition toward more pleasant temperatures.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

Mainly VFR will persist during the period across all TAF sites. Winds will remain from the E-NE at 15 knots with gusty winds, diminishing at 23/23Z becoming more VRB increasing once again at 24/13Z. Some VCSH are forecast along TJSJ and TIST during the period.

MARINE

Issued at 136 PM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic, along with a surface trough across the central Atlantic, will maintain gentle to moderate east to northeast winds today. Another high-pressure system will then build over the western Atlantic and move into the central Atlantic from early week through Thursday. This will tighten the pressure gradient once again, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and choppy seas from Tuesday onward. As a result, expect confused seas due to the combination of locally choppy conditions and a long-period northeasterly swell arriving between Tuesday and Wednesday. Small craft operators will likely need to exercise caution during that period.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 136 PM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

There is a low risk of rip currents for the rest of the night. Beach conditions will remain suitable for beachgoers through Monday. On Tuesday, the risk will increase to moderate along the northern exposed beaches. Conditions will continue to deteriorate through midweek. By Friday, the risk of rip currents will become high.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...None. VI...None. AM...None.