textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

* High chance of life-threatening rip currents along the north- facing beaches in PR, with a moderate chance of them occurring across Vieques, Culebra, and St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.

* Weather conditions will deteriorate across PR and the USVI from this weekend into early next week, as an approaching frontal boundary increases moisture and instability, bringing a renewed chance of cooler temperatures, showers, and localized flooding, especially Saturday night into Sunday.

* Pulses of northeasterly swell will maintain hazardous coastal conditions for beachgoers through the weekend; however, another northerly swell will further deteriorate marine and coastal conditions late this weekend into early next week.

Short Term(Today through Sunday)

Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

Life-threatening rip currents continue to form along the Atlantic Coastline and north-facing beaches of PR and the USVI overnight. As the winds turned southerly, a drier air mass moved in, clearing skies and limiting rain across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico overnight. The southerly winds were calm to light and variable under land breeze variations. One more time, low temperatures were in the low and mid-60s in the mountains of PR, and in the low to mid-70s along the coast of PR and the USVI.

A surface high-pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to promote a southerly wind flow today, veering to southwesterly by this afternoon. By Saturday, an approaching frontal boundary will induce a weak westerly flow, which will shift to north- northwesterly by Saturday evening, then turn northerly by Sunday.

This evolving wind pattern will promote a drier air mass across the islands through at least Saturday afternoon. However, a patch of low-level moisture will promote some showers across the local waters, moving across the US Virgin Islands and southern PR at times. The best chance will be this afternoon into the evening, with local effects promoting showers across southeast PR, northeast PR, and the USVI. However, this activity does not represent a threat of widespread flooding.

Although calm weather with mostly sunny skies will dominate around Saturday morning, as the frontal boundary approaches from the west, moisture will slowly increase again by Saturday afternoon, with a more unsettled, potentially wetter pattern developing, most likely by late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. In this scenario, a limited risk of flooding rainfall is expected to begin Saturday afternoon, which may lead to localized water ponding in urban areas and areas with poor drainage. We will continuously evaluate the flooding risk for Saturday as more detailed guidance becomes available. Currently, we still identify Sunday as another cloudy and showery weather day, as model guidance indicates the frontal boundary lingering or even crossing the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Recent model runs indicate that a jet stream will move closer to the region as a frontal boundary approaches the islands between Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Although thunderstorms are not included in the current forecast due to possible conditions at mid to upper levels, a lack of moisture, warmer- than-normal temperatures, and relatively stable lapse rates, which are not ideal for thunderstorm development, this potential will be reassessed in future forecasts. We will particularly monitor atmospheric instability for Saturday night and Sunday, as it may influence the likelihood of thunderstorms.

Long Term(Monday through Friday)

Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

Current model guidance for the start of the next workweek indicates precipitable water values dropping to near seasonal levels as drier air behind the frontal boundary advects into the region. A high-pressure system building across the western Atlantic will continue to promote increased north to northeast winds through midweek as the pressure gradient tightens over the area. Residents can expect wind driven passing showers, particularly across northern and eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI. Under this pattern, and as noted in the 925 mb temperature guidance, temperatures will remain below the seasonal average at least through Tuesday.

By Wednesday and Thursday, moisture levels are expected to increase slightly as the high shifts farther east into the Atlantic, veering winds from the east to southeast and lifting the remnants of the stationary frontal boundary. This will allow enhanced moisture convergence over the area, likely increasing rain chances and elevating the flood risk across portions of Puerto Rico and the USVI. Additionally, mid to upper-level conditions are expected to become more dynamically favorable, as troughiness will dominate aloft.

By the end of the week, more typical conditions are expected, driven by available moisture and local effects under a persistent southeasterly wind flow associated with high pressure across the central to eastern Atlantic, bringing trade wind showers. A mid- level ridge will also begin to establish, bringing increased stability to the region. From midweek through Friday, winds will shift back from the east to southeast, temperatures are expected to warm, and 925 mb guidance shows a sharp increase to above- normal temperatures for that period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. Winds will continue calm to light and VRB through 6/13z, then will be mainly from the S, turning more SSW by this afternoon, with speeds at 5 to 15 kt. SHRA/-SHRA will form late this morning into the afternoon across the eastern half of PR and the USVI. We cannot rule out a few brief MVFR periods due to this activity.

MARINE

Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

A surface high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will promote gentle to moderate southerly to southwesterly winds today. Winds becoming moderate to fresh by Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest, along with increased shower activity. Two new swells are expected to spread across the Atlantic waters and passages, the first one on Saturday, and a larger, long- period northwesterly swell on Monday. This will keep hazardous seas across most local waters through at least midweek next week. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely starting across the offshore Atlantic waters around Saturday early afternoon.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026

Today, the High Rip Current Risk remains in effect for north- facing beaches of Puerto Rico due to breaking waves around 6 feet. A Moderate Risk continues across western Puerto Rico and the USVI. Beachgoers are strongly encouraged to exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone.

Additional pulses of energy are likely to maintain a high risk of rip currents over the weekend. Another stronger, long-period northerly swell is expected early next week, which may further deteriorate coastal conditions and prompt additional High Surf Advisories and potential coastal flooding.

The public is urged to stay out of the water and continue monitoring official forecasts for updates.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ010-012.

High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for PRZ010.

High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for PRZ012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM AST Sunday for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM AST Sunday for AMZ712-741.