textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

* Afternoon showers are expected to continue mainly over NW PR today, where ponding of water on roads and minor flooding are the main concerns.

* Lighter and southeasterly winds are expected on Tuesday, promoting warmer temperatures than previous days.

* Small craft advisory conditions, life-threatening rip currents and possible high surf conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday.

* In the U.S. Virgin Islands, quick passing showers will continue mainly at night and in the morning, with life-threatening rip currents expected late in the week.

Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

Sunny to partly cloudy skies were observed across the islands today. Passing showers were noted across eastern PR during the morning and early afternoon hours, and streamers were developing downwind of the USVI early in the afternoon. For the rest of this afternoon, locally induced showers are expected to develop over portions of the interior and northwestern PR. High temperatures were in the mid 80s across the lower elevations of the islands to the upper 70s and low 80s across the higher elevations.

Steering winds are expected to relax and turn more from the southeast on Tuesday, as a col area develops north of the region in response to a front and associated pre-frontal trough moving into the central Atlantic. However, winds are expected to turn from the east quickly late Tuesday into Wednesday as surface high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. In terms of moisture content, the precipitable water is expected to fluctuate each day between 1.20 and 1.50 inches. Therefore, the same weather pattern is expected, with passing light showers moving at times across the windward areas of the islands during the night, followed by locally induced afternoon showers over portions of the western interior of PR, which could last into the evening hours and spread across the southwestern coastal areas due to the weak steering winds, and colder than normal 500 mb temperatures due to the proximity of an upper-level trough.

Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)

From prev discussion issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

No major changes were introduced to the long-term forecast, as mostly stable conditions are very likely by the latter part of the week and early next week. A surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will promote easterly winds through most of the period, expected to intensify and migrate eastward, strengthening from the southeast. Based on the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF, PWAT values should remain seasonal to below climatological normal (between 1.2 and 1.4 inches, low chance of 1.5 to 1.6 inches) due to drier air filtering into the region. Confidence is increasing between model solutions, as ensemble members show low variability and are tending to lower moisture content across the CWA. In terms of instability, the upper-level shortwave should gradually move away from the region, with a mid-level ridge establishing over the Bahamas and lingering through most of the period. Based on the latest model guidance, the mid-level ridge will dominate most of the weather conditions throughout the period, with slightly warmer-than- normal 500 mb temperatures (between -5 and -6 degrees Celsius), leading to a blocking pattern and resulting in stability aloft. A seasonal weather pattern is expected to prevail, with isolated to scattered showers moving over windward sections across the islands during the night into the morning hours. Although the combination of diurnal heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence could trigger afternoon convection, this should remain shallow, with mainly puddles over the road and locally reduced visibility. Additionally, strengthening winds should result in fast-moving showers, lowering the chance of flooding. Hence, no flooding nor lightning is expected during the long-term forecast.

With a southeasterly wind flow and the presence of a mid-level ridge, model guidance continues to suggest warmer-than-normal temperatures. Although theres a low chance of heat indices exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit, maximum temperatures may reach the low 90s in localized urban and coastal areas across the islands.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, brief MVFR conds are possible this afternoon at TJBQ due to SHRA, and -RA with BKN cigs btw FL030-050 can be expected at TJSJ thru 16/20z. Mostly VCSH overnight at TIST/TISX/TJSJ. The 16/12z TJSJ sounding indicated E-ESE winds up to 16 kt blo FL050.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh east to east-southeast winds today. On Tuesday, lighter southeasterly winds are expected as a weak front and pre-frontal trough moves mainly north of the region. From Wednesday onward, winds turn once again from the east as a nearly stationary surface high pressure builds from the western Atlantic Hazardous seas, around 7 feet, are expected on Thursday and Friday due to the arrival of a long-period northerly swell.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the north facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, and St. Thomas. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday, and a low risk is expected across all beaches on Wednesday as winds and seas diminish in general. However, a long period northerly swell, around 7 feet at 13 seconds will increase the risk to high from Thursday into the weekend across all northern beaches of PR and the northern USVI. Therefore, life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions can be expected during the second part of the week.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...None. VI...None. AM...None.