textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

* Passing showers will move through in the morning, followed by a few afternoon showers over interior and northwestern Puerto Rico as remnants of the frontal boundary linger. Limited flooding is expected, with brief ponding of water in roads and poorly- drained areas.

* Winds shift more from the southeast today and become lighter on Tuesday, allowing warmer-than-normal temperatures.

* Seas and beach conditions will worsen from midweek into the end of the week as a new northerly swell arrives, creating hazardous conditions for small craft and a high risk of rip currents along north-facing beaches of the islands.

* In the U.S. Virgin Islands, quick passing showers will continue mainly at night and in the morning, with rougher surf and dangerous rip currents expected late in the week.

Short Term(Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

Remnants of a frontal boundary remains stalled north of the region this morning with lingering moisture trapped in the low levels across the local islands. Early morning satellite and radar imagery show passing trade wind showers affecting windward Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Rainfall has been light overall, although brief moderate showers will remain possible through the morning hours.

As the day progresses, the local wind flow will gradually shift more from the southeast, allowing slightly warmer air to filter in. Daytime heating and local effects will once again promote isolated to scattered showers across interior and northwestern Puerto Rico this afternoon. Available moisture remains limited and mid-levels are somewhat dry, so activity should be brief. The flood threat remains limited, with only isolated ponding in poor drainage areas.

Tonight into Tuesday, a nearby col will move north, weakening the pressure gradient and leading to lighter steering winds. Consequently, 925 mb wind speeds diminish, and showers will move more slowly and become more locally driven. Overnight and morning showers will still affect eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while afternoon convection may linger longer across interior and western Puerto Rico. However, precipitable water remains near to slightly below normal, and mid-level dryness should prevent widespread rainfall.

By Wednesday, the col shifts eastward, and Atlantic high pressure strengthens again, allowing easterly winds to increase once more. The low-level flow will keep an east-southeast component, maintaining warmer-than-normal daytime temperatures, especially across urban and coastal areas. Shower activity returns to a more typical fast-moving trade wind pattern, with nighttime and morning showers across windward areas, followed by isolated afternoon shallow convective activity over interior and western Puerto Rico.

Overall, the pattern will turn more seasonal through midweek: overnight trade wind showers, localized afternoon convection, lighter winds Tuesday due to the col, and increasing winds with warmer conditions by Wednesday.

Long Term(Thursday through Monday)

Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

No major changes were introduced to the long-term forecast, as mostly stable conditions are very likely by the latter part of the week and early next week. A surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will promote easterly winds through most of the period, expected to intensify and migrate eastward, strengthening from the southeast. Based on the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF, PWAT values should remain seasonal to below climatological normal (between 1.2 and 1.4 inches, low chance of 1.5 to 1.6 inches) due to drier air filtering into the region. Confidence is increasing between model solutions, as ensemble members show low variability and are tending to lower moisture content across the CWA. In terms of instability, the upper-level shortwave should gradually move away from the region, with a mid-level ridge establishing over the Bahamas and lingering through most of the period. Based on the latest model guidance, the mid-level ridge will dominate most of the weather conditions throughout the period, with slightly warmer-than- normal 500 mb temperatures (between -5 and -6 degrees Celsius), leading to a blocking pattern and resulting in stability aloft. A seasonal weather pattern is expected to prevail, with isolated to scattered showers moving over windward sections across the islands during the night into the morning hours. Although the combination of diurnal heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence could trigger afternoon convection, this should remain shallow, with mainly puddles over the road and locally reduced visibility. Additionally, strengthening winds should result in fast-moving showers, lowering the chance of flooding. Hence, no flooding nor lightning is expected during the long-term forecast.

With a southeasterly wind flow and the presence of a mid-level ridge, model guidance continues to suggest warmer-than-normal temperatures. Although theres a low chance of heat indices exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit, maximum temperatures may reach the low 90s in localized urban and coastal areas across the islands.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at most terminals. However, passing SHRA embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to affect mainly TJSJ, TIST and TISX through the morning hours. Aft 16/17Z, SHRA and isolated VCSH will develop over interior and NW PR, possibly causing brief operational impacts at TJBQ. Winds will remain generally ESE at 513 with higher gusts, then returning blo 10 kt aft 23z. The 16/00Z TJSJ sounding indicated ENE winds up to 17 kt blo FL100.

MARINE

Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

A surface high pressure is moving from the Western Atlantic toward the Central Atlantic, which will result in moderate to locally fresh east to east-southeast winds today. A fading northerly swell will continue to create hazardous conditions for small craft operators in the Atlantic offshore waters through at least noon. Winds will turn gentle to moderate and from the southeast as another frontal boundary, along with a pre-frontal trough, moves north of the region by Tuesday. Additionally, another long-period north to northeasterly swell will affect local marine conditions from Thursday onward, creating hazardous conditions.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

Beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution, particularly along the north-facing beaches from Rincon to Fajardo and throughout eastern Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix, due to the moderate risk of rip currents. The moderate risk for these beaches will continue through at least late Tuesday night, when the risk is forecast to become low throughout the region on Wednesday. However, the arrival of a long-period northerly to northeasterly swell during the second part of the week will once again increase the risk to high levels for most of these locations. For more information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST today for AMZ711.