textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 125 PM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

* Limited shower activity is expected this afternoon. By Saturday, mostly stable conditions are expected to start the day. During the afternoon, showers should develop across the interior and into western Puerto Rico, posing little to no flood risk. Warmer temperatures are also expected.

* From late Saturday into Sunday, weather conditions will deteriorate as a frontal boundary and the associated pre-frontal trough enhance cloudiness and showers across the region.

* A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands tonight and tomorrow. This risk may increase to high on Sunday due to a pulse of a long-period northerly swell.

Short Term(This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 125 PM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

Southeasterly winds continue to steer showers from the Caribbean Sea over the islands. Current radar accumulations indicate that areas with at least minimal accumulations since midnight are SW PR, E PR, Culebra, St. Croix and easternmost St. John. Over Puerto Rico, the highest radar estimated accumulation was 1.20 in over northern Humacao. Over the U.S. Virgin Islands, the highest radar estimated accumulation was 0.43 in over western St. Croix. Official and unofficial stations report temperatures in the low to mid 80s at lower elevations of the islands and in the low to mid 70s at higher elevations of Puerto Rico. Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate 1.38 to 1.55 inches (increasing northward), at normal to slightly above normal values for this time of the year. The 12Z sounding detected 1.57 inches of PWAT. Drier air (with embedded showers and with low concentrations of Saharan Dust) under the light to moderate southeasterly steering flow is moving over the islands. This light to moderate southeasterly steering flow is a result of a broad surface high high over the central Atlantic, as well as due to a frontal low over the western Atlantic and an approaching pre-frontal trough. PWAT values will continue gradually decreasing (reaching less than an inch tomorrow) this afternoon into tomorrow. Advective showers will continue to move towards windward areas with convective showers possibly developing mainly over interior to northwestern PR, resulting in a limited flooding risk. As a frontal boundary and its associated pre- frontal trough approach the area, winds will start backing tomorrow becoming more easterly and then northeasterly by tomorrow afternoon and veering to become more east-northeasterly by Sunday. PWAT values by Saturday night into Sunday are forecast at around 1.6 to 1.7 inches over the area, as the same moisture field that has been moving back and forth over the islands this last week is once again steered back into the islands as the frontal boundary approaches. This will all promote an increase in light to moderate shower frequency under the northeasterly winds, prompting a limited flooding risk. Patchy fog will also develop over sectors of the interior. 925 temperatures will continue at low end normal to above normal values during the period.

LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Issued at 257 AM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

Monday is expected to be a transition day during the long-term forecast period, as a weak frontal boundary affects the forecast area. Winds will gradually veer to an easterly direction as a surface high builds over the western Atlantic and migrates toward the central Atlantic. Although the frontal boundary will be weakening, lingering moisture and the influence of a prevailing mid- to upper-level trough will support scattered showers, particularly across northern and western Puerto Rico, with isolated periods of locally heavy rainfall possible.

By Tuesday, a mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to begin establishing across the region, promoting a gradual stabilization of the atmosphere. Latest precipitable water (PWAT) guidance supports this trend, with values decreasing toward seasonal climatological levels, generally around 1.20 to 1.55 inches. As a result, shower coverage is expected to decrease compared to Monday, with trade-wind moisture favoring brief passing morning showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by limited afternoon convective development over interior and western Puerto Rico.

From Wednesday through Friday, a more stable weather pattern is expected to prevail across the region. Under this regime, warm and humid conditions will persist, with mainly fair weather punctuated by brief trade-wind showers during the morning hours and isolated afternoon convection over western Puerto Rico. Overall, the flooding threat should decrease after Monday as more stable conditions take hold.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected. ESE to SE winds up to 10-13 kts, with higher gusts, through 13/23Z. Winds becoming light thereafter and picking up again from the ESE at 14/13Z up to 10-13 kts. Winds will back thereafter, bcmg ENE by tomorrow night. VCSH possible during the period with a chance of VCSH/-SHRA at TJBQ through 13/19z.

MARINE

Issued at 125 PM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

A surface high-pressure system across the central to eastern Atlantic and a nearby col region will lead to light to gentle east to southeast winds tonight and Saturday. By Sunday, a frontal boundary will approach the region from the north, promoting moderate winds that will shift from the northeast, along with increasing cloud cover and rain chances. Additionally, a pulse of long-period northerly swell will arrive around Sunday evening and continue into Monday, increasing wave heights to around 5 to 7 feet. Small craft operators will likely need to exercise caution particularly across the Atlantic waters and Mona passage.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 125 PM AST Fri Feb 13 2026

Tonight, there is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northwest, northern, and eastern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern USVI due to breaking waves up to 5 feet. Beaches protected to the south have a low risk, however, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. By Saturday, similar conditions are anticipated. A pulse of long-period northerly swell is forecast to spread across the Atlantic waters from Sunday into Monday, and the risk may increase to high. Continue to monitor the forecast for additional updates. For specific location information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008.

VI...None. AM...None.