textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 150 PM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

* Choppy to hazardous seas will continue over the next few days. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through midday Friday for the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage. Boaters should use caution elsewhere and even after advisories expire.

* Life-threatening rip currents will remain possible at most beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through midweek next week.

* Breezy to occasionally windy conditions will continue through the weekend, especially along exposed coastal areas, and loose outdoor items may be blown around.

* A typical early-winter shower pattern will continue, with overnight trade-wind showers across both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and limited afternoon showers mainly over Puerto Rico. A slight increase in activity, with one or two isolated thunderstorms, is possible Friday afternoon and Saturday night, with limited flooding impacts where heavier showers repeat.

Short Term(This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 150 PM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Fresh easterly winds today brought fast-moving and frequent trade- wind showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, with a few additional showers and isolated thunderstorms forming downwind from the islands and the mountains. Radar estimates since midnight show between 1 and 2 inches of rain in parts of southeastern Puerto Rico, mainly over Humacao and Yabucoa. Winds stayed breezy through the day, generally 17 to 23 mph, with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph, including a peak of 37 mph in St. Thomas. Early morning temperatures dropped into the mid 60s, while afternoon highs reached the lower 90s, especially across western Puerto Rico.

A passing mid to upper-level trough, a moist airmass spreading across the region, and a fresh easterly breeze will bring scattered to locally numerous trade-wind showers tonight. Periodic showers will reach the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra, but the most active area will be eastern Puerto Rico, where low- level convergence will support additional shower development. A stronger steering flow may carry some of these showers farther inland into the eastern interior and the San Juan metro area. Rainfall amounts should remain modest, but repeated showers may produce minor flooding issues such as ponding on roads and poor drainage. Breezy conditions, especially along exposed coastal areas, may also create wind-related impacts, and unsecured light outdoor items could be blown around.

From Friday into Saturday, a weak ridge aloft behind the departing trough will provide only slight stabilization. However, a steady inflow of tropical moisture and a persistent moderate to fresh steering flow will maintain the typical early-winter shower pattern. The U.S. Virgin Islands can expect trade-wind showers from time to time, moving in from the surrounding waters, while eastern Puerto Rico will see more frequent overnight and early morning showers. Afternoon convection will remain limited. On Friday afternoon, slightly cooler-than-normal mid-level temperatures may support deeper showers and isolated thunderstorms. Another period of cooling aloft and increasing moisture Saturday night could bring a slight uptick in showers across the region, including the U.S. Virgin Islands. Limited flooding impacts remain possible where heavier showers repeatedly affect the same areas. Breezy conditions will continue both days, especially along exposed coastal areas where stronger gusts may move unsecured light outdoor items.

Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)

Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Up to breezy conditions are forecast to start the long term period, particularly Sunday to early Monday as a surface high starts the period over the western to central Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient. 925 mb wind speeds are forecast at high end normal to slightly above normal values during these days, with model guidance suggesting a decrease towards normal values Tuesday and below normal values Wednesday and Thursday. By Tuesday and Wednesday a low pressure system will move out of the eastern US towards the Atlantic promoting a looser pressure gradient and, in turn, these decreasing wind speeds. Precipitable water (PWAT) will be at up to normal values (1.5 to 1.8 in) during the period with patches of drier and slightly more humid air providing some variability. Patches of moisture and nearby troughs will promote showers, steered by mainly northeasterly flow, reaching windward sectors of the islands at times and promote a chance of afternoon showers mainly over interior to SW PR, these can promote brief heavy downpours. Model guidance suggests a trough approaching the region to end the period increasing humidity and instability while also resulting in steering flow veering to become more southeasterly, but uncertainty remains. 925 mb temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low end normal values for this time of the year, reaching more normal values to end the period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

SHRA will affect TJSJ, TJBQ, and the USVI terminals at times through the period, with the highest potential for brief MVFR CIG and VIS, mountain obscurations, and temporary visibility reductions between 27/22Z and 28/14Z. At TJPS, afternoon SHRA may cause brief MVFR conditions between 27/16Z and 27/22Z. Surface winds through FL015 will remain from the east at 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 28 knots through 27/22Z, decreasing to 8 to 12 knots overnight with land-breeze variations, then returning to a fresh easterly breeze after 28/14Z.

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Surface highs over the central Atlantic will maintain an easterly moderate to fresh breeze through the weekend. These conditions will keep rough to hazardous seas across the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage, where Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through midday Friday. Boaters should also use caution across all other local waters, including the waters surrounding the U.S. Virgin Islands, as choppy seas and occasional stronger winds may still create challenging conditions. Even after advisories expire, breezy conditions and choppy seas up to around 6 feet, especially across the Atlantic waters, are expected to continue into early next week.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 150 PM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through midweek next week, and life-threatening rip currents are possible in these areas. The risk will drop to low for the south and southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico on Friday. However, isolated stronger rip currents may still develop at times, especially near piers, jetties, and channels. This risk also applies to beaches in the U.S. Virgin Islands. For beach-specific details, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Friday for AMZ711-723.