textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 PM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Above-normal temperatures and elevated heat indices will continue through the afternoon, particularly across coastal areas, lowlands, interior valleys, and urban areas. A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM AST.

- Breezy conditions will continue through the rest of today, with southeast winds gradually weakening tonight into Sunday.

- Generally fair weather will prevail through the weekend, with a few passing showers possible, mainly across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. More frequent showers are expected by early next week, especially during the afternoon across western Puerto Rico.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will continue across most beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Beach conditions should gradually improve Sunday into early next week as winds and seas diminish. However, dangerous rip currents can still occur, even at beaches with a low risk.

Short Term(This evening through Monday)

Issued at 235 PM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

During the morning hours, mostly cloudy skies prevailed across portions of the Cordillera Central and southern Puerto Rico, with passing showers producing minimal rainfall accumulations. Breezy conditions were also observed across the region, with winds from the south-southeast (SSE) ranging between 9 and 17 mph, with gusts reaching the mid 30s and 40 mph. Despite the increased cloud coverage and breezy conditions, rainfall activity remained limited. These conditions were associated with a tight pressure gradient between a broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic and a frontal boundary across the western Atlantic.

For the remainder of today into tonight, breezy conditions will gradually diminish as the pressure gradient weakens across the eastern Caribbean. Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the southeasterly flow may continue to produce passing showers, mainly across southern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico. However, a persistent mid-to-upper-level ridge will maintain subsidence and relatively dry air above, limiting the vertical development of showers and keeping rainfall accumulations generally light. Elevated heat indices will remain the primary concern this afternoon, particularly across coastal areas and urban locations. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands through 5 PM AST today. Residents and visitors are urged to follow heat safety recommendations, including staying hydrated, limiting prolonged outdoor exposure, and taking frequent breaks in shaded or air-conditioned areas. Special attention should be given to children, older adults, and pets, as they are particularly vulnerable to heat-related illnesses. Never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Significant rainfall impacts are not anticipated, although brief periods of reduced visibility and wet roadways are possible where showers occur.

Sunday is expected to be the driest day of the forecast period as a drier air mass moves across Puerto Rico, lowering precipitable water values to around 1.2 inches. This, combined with persistent mid- level subsidence, will favor mostly sunny skies, limited shower activity, and generally fair weather conditions across the islands. By Monday, low-level moisture is expected to gradually increase as patches of moisture move into the region, with precipitable water values trending toward seasonal levels. This may support isolated to locally scattered showers across windward areas during the morning hours, followed by limited afternoon convection over the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico. Nevertheless, lingering mid-level stability should suppress deeper convection, keeping rainfall accumulations generally light. Overall, no significant rainfall impacts are anticipated through Monday, allowing for generally favorable outdoor conditions.

Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)

Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

Seasonal conditions will prevail during the long-term period. Mid- level ridging will continue to warm up temperatures and weaken the lapse rates at these levels as well as promote subsidence and dry air aloft. This will act to limit the development of deep convective cells across the islands. Moisture availability with below-to- average precipitable water (PWAT) values and lower values of mid- level relative humidity will also act to reduce widespread convection across the CWA. Thus, any activity that develops will be driven by diurnal heating, available moisture and local effects. The trade winds will bring light to locally breezy conditions through the long-term period. The flow will shift from an ENE on Tuesday and gradually shift to be from the ESE to the SE from Wednesday onwards. Thus, afternoon rainfall and thunderstorm activity will occur across the west, western interior and southwestern regions of Puerto Rico on Tuesday with the focus shifting to the west, western interior, and northwestern regions from Wednesday until Saturday. Afternoon showers from streamers from El Yunque and the smaller islands will also impact the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Each night and morning advective showers will develop and affect the offshore waters, the U.S. Virgin Islands as well as southeastern and eastern Puerto Rico.

Thus, some of the main risks for the long-term period remain associated to excessive rainfall, lightning and heating. Where frequent downpours occur, ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas as well as a low chance of urban and small streams flooding is possible. If storms develop in your vicinity be prepared to seek shelter. In addition, the 925 mb temperatures will be above average but will not exceed the two standard deviations above the normal levels. This in combination to available moisture and reduced cloud cover will lead to a level of heat that affects those individuals extremely sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Individuals are invited to remain weather ready and updated with the latest forecasts as they become available.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 235 PM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conds across all TAF sites with no sig wx impacts anticipated thru the period. SSE winds at 10-12 kt with sea breeze variations and gusts up to 35 kt and could extend until flight level 020-040 thru 14/23Z. Winds bcmg lighter overnight, then increase to around 10kts and occasional higher gusts.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

A surface high pressure extending from the eastern to central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh southeasterly winds across the regional waters through the remainder of today. However, winds are expected to gradually diminish tonight into Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes, allowing choppy seas to gradually subside. Seas will generally range between 3 and 6 feet, occasionally reaching up to 8 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters and local passages. Improving marine conditions are expected through early next week as winds and wind-driven seas continue to decrease. Nevertheless, passing showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and seas.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 235 PM AST Sat Nov 14 2026

Wind-driven seas will continue to support a moderate risk of life- threatening rip currents across most beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the remainder of today. However, as southeasterly winds gradually weaken and choppy seas subside, the rip current risk is expected to decrease across several coastal areas beginning Sunday, with additional improvements anticipated through early next week.

Despite the improving conditions, beachgoers should continue to exercise caution, particularly along exposed beaches. Life- threatening rip currents can still develop near jetties, groins, piers, and reefs, even where a low risk is forecast. Additionally, although shower and thunderstorm activity should remain limited through the weekend, isolated thunderstorms may develop near the western and northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Beachgoers should seek shelter immediately if thunder is heard and remain weather aware.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>013.

VI...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...None.