textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 213 PM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

* Fresh to strong winds will result in choppy to rough seas and high risk of rip currents across the region. Small Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements continue in effect through at least Sunday.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue during the forecast period, particularly across the coastal areas of the islands; unsecured and outdoor objects may blow around.

* Patches of moisture will filter across the islands from the E to ENE at times during the forecast period, increasing fast-moving shower frequency, while a trough will gradually approach the region from the west this weekend into early next week.

Short Term(This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 213 PM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

Earlier today, pockets of frequent and fast-moving showers moved across northern and eastern Puerto Rico as well as Culebra during the morning hours, producing rainfall accumulations generally between 0.10 and 0.33 inches. Winds were from the east-northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. By around 10:30 AM, a drier air mass began filtering across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, resulting in improving conditions and mostly clear skies across much of the region during the afternoon hours.

The main weather feature for tonight into Saturday is the expected overnight particularly across windward sectors including the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and northern Puerto Rico. With the brisk trade winds, showers will move quickly but may produce brief periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Additional afternoon convection is expected over western Puerto Rico on Saturday, where isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Localized ponding of water in poorly drained areas will be possible.

Although precipitable water values will gradually decrease on Sunday, regardless patches of moisture continue to stream across the region from time to time combined with the expected afternoon convection developing over western Puerto Rico each day. A limited flooding risk will persist through the weekend, particularly in areas that receive repeated showers.

Overall, throughout the forecast period expect the breezy to locally windy conditions remain across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. A series of surface highs over the western to central Atlantic will maintain a tight local pressure gradient, promoting breezy to windy ENE winds across the region, gradually becoming more easterly by late Sunday. Wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts will remain common across the islands, producing a limited to locally elevated wind risk where unsecured items could blow around. This persistent flow will also maintain 925 mb temperatures near seasonal values through the weekend. Relatively low concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to continue filtering across the region through the forecast period.

Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)

Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain the dominant surface feature early in the period while gradually shifting northeast. This pattern will maintain easterly to east-northeasterly winds across the northeastern Caribbean. Moisture will be somewhat fragmented early in the period, with precipitable water values near typical to slightly below normal Monday into Tuesday. A deeper moisture plume is expected to arrive Tuesday night and persist through Thursday before drier air begins filtering back into the region Thursday night. Aloft, a trough extending from near Jamaica toward eastern Cuba early in the period will gradually weaken and become more elongated while lingering near Hispaniola. At the same time, an upper-level jet will remain positioned over or near the forecast area, providing periods of divergence aloft and slightly cooler temperatures that will promote ventilation across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds are expected to gradually weaken Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient relaxes, though another high pressure system building over the western Atlantic late Thursday may signal the start of another period of strengthening winds.

From a hazards perspective, breezy to locally windy conditions will remain the primary concern early in the period, particularly Monday through Tuesday. Winds are expected to ease somewhat by midweek before potentially increasing again late Thursday. Rainfall will remain a secondary concern, mainly from passing trade wind showers affecting windward areas overnight and during the morning hours, followed by locally driven afternoon showers across interior and western Puerto Rico. As moisture increases Tuesday night through Thursday and upper-level conditions remain somewhat favorable, showers may become more numerous with the potential for isolated thunderstorms. Periods of moderate rainfall could lead to brief ponding of water in poor drainage areas, although the overall flooding risk currently appears limited.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 213 PM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conds expected thru the period across all TAF sites. ENE winds btwn 15-20 kt with gusts higher than 25 kt through 06/22Z. SHRA and VCTS could affect TIST, TISX, TSJU terminals after 07/00Z. VCSH possible over TJPS and TJBQ after 06/18Z through 06/22Z.

MARINE

Issued at 213 PM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

The marine forecast remains on track, with hazardous marine conditions expected to continue over the next several days. A series of high pressure systems across the Atlantic will promote fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds throughout the forecast period. The latest ASCAT observations show a broad area of winds between 20 and 25 kt across the regional waters and passages. Additionally, local buoys continue to report seas between 5 and 6 feet. This will continue to result in choppy to rough seas across most regional waters and local Caribbean passages, hazardous for small craft operators. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least Sunday, although these may be extended as hazardous conditions will possibly continue the next workweek. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 213 PM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue across the islands due to strengthening winds leading to breezy to windy conditions and a trade wind swell spreading across the local waters and passages. Although the trade wind swell will gradually diminish later today, the latest local buoy observations continue to report seas between 5 and 6 feet. Additionally, the latest model guidance suggests wave heights between 6 and 8 across the regional waters through early next week. Given the current conditions and forecast, the Rip Current Statement remains in effect through Sunday over northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Residents and visitors are encouraged to continue monitoring the conditions and to heed the advice of the flag system, as well as the beach patrol flags and posted signs. Although model guidance continues to suggest that the swell will gradually diminish by late Friday night, hazardous conditions are likely to persist this weekend and early next week.

For the rest of the areas, the moderate risk will continue for the next several days. Beachgoers should exercise caution, as life- threatening rip currents are still possible along the surf zone. For additional information and location-specific rip current details, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ735.