textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 120 PM AST Fri Jan 23 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue, with dangerous offshore seas and rip currents posing a risk to small craft and swimmers. Marine hazards extend to Sunday afternoon while a high risk of rip currents continues through early Saturday.

* Normal to above normal moisture content will continue to promote shower activity across the eastern half of PR through at least Saturday night.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, breezy and showery conditions will prevail through the weekend, with a drying trend expected early on Sunday.

Short Term(This afternoon through Sunday)

Issued at 120 PM AST Fri Jan 23 2026

Mostly cloudy skies were observed across the islands as showers increased throughout the day. The Doppler radar estimated up to half an inch of rain in portions of southeastern Puerto Rico. Additional showers were developing around noon over southwestern PR and downwind of the USVI. High temperatures were in the mid-80s across most coastal areas. The wind was from the east between 12 and 18 mph.

A broad area of higher than normal precipitable water (PWAT) content of 1.70-1.90 inches, currently to the east and south of the Leeward Islands will continue to stream over local area through at least Saturday. A brief weakness in the pressure gradient will promote mostly moderate trades (around 15 kt) during the same period. Therefore, an overall wet pattern is expected to prevail with frequent passing showers over the USVI and the eastern half of PR, where rainfall accumulations could range from half to an inch of rain, enough to cause minor flooding concerns along roads and other poor drainage areas. Also, as winds ease somewhat, better organized shallow convection is expected to develop this afternoon and once again on Saturday afternoon over portions of the Cordillera and western PR. On Sunday, the arrival of a drier air mass with PWAT dropping to near 1.25 inches and stronger trades (15-20kt) will promote mostly fair weather conditions across all the islands in general.

Long Term(Monday through next Friday)

Issued at 517 AM AST Fri Jan 23 2026

A series of high pressure systems and frontal lows will move over the western to central Atlantic during the next workweek resulting in generally E to ESE steering flow. This flow will steer patches of drier and moist air towards the islands, resulting in in seasonal (<1.50 in) to below seasonal (<1.20 in) precipitable water (PWAT) values over the area. Current model guidance suggests that the most ample patches of drier air will reach the area early Monday as well as Wednesday and Thursday, but uncertainty remains. 925 mb wind speeds will remain seasonal to possibly below seasonal to end the workweek. 925 mb temperatures are now forecast to climb to above seasonal values as ESE flow brings in warmer air to the area. Model guidance suggests that an upper trough will move east of the region on Monday and Tuesday providing some instability, however it will move further east and away from the region. Subsidence in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere will inhibit shower development; however, localized effects may still induce shallow convective showers, though no flooding is anticipated. Passing showers will also be steered over windward areas, particularly during the morning and overnight hours. Most available moisture will be limited to below 800 mb. Overnight patchy fog is also possible over areas of the interior.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM AST Fri Jan 23 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals. However, trade wind SHRA will persist through late Saturday. Therefore, expect brief MVFR cigs at times across the area terminals during the next 24-36 hours. Sfc winds will continue from the east at 12-16 kt with occasional higher gusts, land breeze variations expected overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 120 PM AST Fri Jan 23 2026

A broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh easterlies today, deteriorating marine conditions. Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for the offshore Atlantic through at least early Sunday. A surface trough will increase the frequency of showers through Saturday. East winds are forecast to increase once again on Sunday as another surface high builds over the Atlantic. A long period northeasterly swell is forecast to spread across the local Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages by around late Monday night into Tuesday.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 120 PM AST Fri Jan 23 2026

A high risk of rip currents remains in effect through 6 AM AST tomorrow, Saturday, for the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where life- threatening rip currents are likely. A low to moderate rip current risk will persist across mainly western and southern beaches of the islands. Under moderate areas, life threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone. Up to a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the islands this weekend and into early next week. For more info, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Sunday for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ712-723.