textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 132 PM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions will continue due to strong swells spreading over the Atlantic waters. Small Craft Advisories and High Surf Advisories remain in effect, along with a High Risk of Rip Currents.

* Large breaking waves and strong rip currents will continue to create life-threatening conditions along exposed Atlantic coastlines and northern beaches, including portions of Puerto Rico from Rincon to Fajardo, as well as Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Wave action may also lead to minor beach erosion and hazardous conditions for small craft.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, hazardous marine and coastal conditions will continue due to the strong swells, with a high risk of rip currents along exposed beaches. Breezy trade winds will bring passing showers at times, especially overnight and during the morning, followed by generally fair conditions each afternoon.

* Breezy conditions and passing trade wind showers are expected for the next few days.

Short Term(This evening through Friday)

Issued at 132 PM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

Mostly tranquil conditions persisted in the morning hours, with few showers moving across regional waters and passages. Minimum temperatures remained seasonal, as stations across urban and coastal areas reported low to mid 70s, while higher elevations remained in the high 50s and low 60s, with the lowest at the Adjuntas Substation at 52 degrees Fahrenheit. Based on ASCAT observations, easterly winds began to strengthen (between 15 and 20 kt) as the col region departed from the region. Additionally, CWOP and ASOS/AWOS stations are reporting maximum wind gusts between 20 and 25 kt over coastal areas across the islands. As mentioned in previous discussions, satellite-derived products showed Saharan Dust particles over the Central Atlantic that were expected to filter into the region early today, based on model guidance. Minor concentrations were reported by the Microbiology team at the University of Puerto Rico Medical Sciences Campus. In addition to the Saharan Dust particles, drier air filtered into the region, limiting shower activity. Nevertheless, diurnal heating combined with local effects should enhance shallow convection over the western side of Puerto Rico, including the U.S. Virgin Islands streamers. Due to the influence of the upper- level trough, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The short-term forecast remains on track, with a typical weather pattern for this time of the year. The frontal boundary remains just northwest of the region, expected to gradually dissipate later today.

The broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will dominate the weather pattern, promoting easterly winds for the rest of today and Thursday, veering from the southeast on Friday. Breezy to locally windy conditions will likely persist for the rest of the short-term forecast; unsecured objects may blow around. Patches of moisture should move from time to time into the region, bringing passing showers over windward sections of the islands. Based on the latest model guidance, theres an agreement between model solutions, showing low variability in moisture content. In terms of instability, the influence of an upper-level trough should remain near below climatological normal 500 mb temperatures (around - 8 degrees Celsius), warming by the end of the forecast period. Overall, the most likely scenario is passing showers moving over windward sections in the night and morning hours, along with shallow afternoon convection over western/northwestern Puerto Rico each day. Although significant flooding impacts are not expected, ponding of water over roadways and poorly drained areas is likely over the aforementioned areas.

Long Term(Saturday through next Tuesday)

Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A strong surface high pressure system over the north-central Atlantic will dominate the regional pattern through the period, maintaining fresh to occasionally strong low-level winds across the islands. Winds will generally range from east-southeast to southeast from Saturday through Monday, becoming more easterly by Tuesday as the high shifts. This wind regime will support slightly warmer daytime temperatures over the weekend, followed by modest cooling as the easterly flow becomes established. A weak trade wind cap inversion, combined with slightly drier air and lower precipitable water over the weekend, will limit shower coverage. On Monday, moisture levels are expected to increase, and a weak upper-level short-wave trough to the north, with stronger jet-level winds overhead, will create conditions favorable for eroding the trade wind cap and supporting deeper moisture and showers. Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages overall.

From a hazard perspective, breezy to locally windy conditions will persist, which may make outdoor activities or small-scale operations more difficult. Showers may become heavier and more widespread Monday, particularly across eastern and west-northwestern Puerto Rico. Minor flooding in urban and low-lying areas is possible, especially during the afternoon hours, though widespread flooding is not expected. The combination of strong low-level winds and fast- moving showers may also produce brief heavy rainfall, localized impacts, and gusty conditions that could affect exposed areas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

Mainly VFR conds will persist across TAF sites. -SHRA/+SHRA is expected over W PR, which low to medium chance of TS. Although VCTS is expcd over TJBQ, and AMD will be issued if required. VCSH are very likely across all terminals aft 25/23z, with showers that may move inside TAF site and reduce CIGs/VIS. E Winds will slightly weaken by 25/23z, btwn 5 - 10 kt, strengthening once again by 26/13 btwn 16 - 18 kt and gusts up to 26 kt.

MARINE

Issued at 132 PM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A long-period north-northwesterly swell will continue to spread across the Atlantic waters and passages through Friday, building seas between 6 and 10 feet. Hazardous seas are expected to linger through Friday, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all Atlantic waters and local passages. Moderate to fresh trades will persist through the end of the week, as a surface high pressure strengthens over the Central Atlantic.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 132 PM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

Nearshore buoys are gradually increasing, with 41053 showing wave heights of 6 to 6.5 feet at periods of 12 to 14 seconds. This supports estimated breaking waves in the range of 9 to 12 feet along the northern shoreline of Puerto Rico.

Offshore buoy 41043 continues to indicate that energy from the long- period swell will continue to arrive along the northern shore through the rest of the afternoon, potentially peaking this evening through late tonight. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the northern shore of Puerto Rico, from Rincon through Fajardo. In these areas, expect localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swell energy will also result in hazardous beach conditions in Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For further details on hazard timing and locations, please refer to CFWSJU.

For localized and updated rip current information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010>013.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for PRZ001-002-005-008- 010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Friday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-741-742.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for AMZ745.