textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions are ongoing across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and will persist, creating hazardous conditions across exposed areas and driving overall impacts.

* Marine conditions are deteriorating across the local waters due to increasing winds, with hazardous conditions for small craft already developing. Conditions will worsen further starting Monday night as a northerly swell arrives.

* Life-threatening rip current conditions will develop starting tonight along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and continue through midweek.

* Localized flooding is possible across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to frequent trade wind showers and afternoon convection, particularly in urban areas, poorly drained locations, interior and western Puerto Rico, and any areas with saturated soils.

Short Term(Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

Overnight, an increase in trade wind showers was observed moving inland from the Atlantic waters, with some reaching interior portions of Puerto Rico due to strong steering winds. These showers produced isolated rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. Overnight low temperatures dropped into the mid 50s across higher elevations and mid 60s across lower elevations, reflecting slightly cooler-than-normal conditions that are expected to continue over the next few days. Breezy to locally windy northeasterly winds will persist across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, driven by a strong surface high pressure over the western Atlantic. This pattern will continue to support frequent passing showers, especially during the overnight and early morning hours across windward areas. Aloft, a jet stream and a weak shortwave trough north of the region may help support slightly deeper moisture and limited instability starting Tuesday.

Moisture will vary from time to time, with periods of drier and wetter air moving across the region. By Tuesday, a patch of higher moisture, possibly linked to remnants of a frontal boundary to the north, will move across the area, allowing for more active shower development. Afternoon heating will help showers grow over land, especially across interior and western Puerto Rico, following a typical pattern of morning showers in windward areas and afternoon activity inland.

The main hazards will be localized flooding and breezy to windy conditions. While showers will move quickly, recent rainfall may have left soils sensitive, increasing the risk of ponding of water and minor flooding in urban areas, roads, and small streams. This risk will be higher in areas that receive frequent trade wind showers or repeated afternoon activity, particularly across interior and west to southwestern Puerto Rico. In addition, breezy to locally strong winds may result in occasional non-thunderstorm wind impacts, especially across exposed coastal areas and higher elevations. Lightning risk will remain limited, although a few thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Tuesday. Overall, impacts are expected to be localized rather than widespread.

Long Term(Thursday through Monday)

Issued at 153 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

An induced surface trough northeast of the region along with a high pressure system well north of the region will maintain a breezy flow from the northeast, around 15 knots on Thursday. Passing showers will continue to move along the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico in the morning, followed by afternoon convection along the interior and western Puerto Rico. As the trough moves just north of the region, the winds will shift from the southeast by Friday and the weekend. Aloft, a short wave trough arrives on Friday, which usually will be favorable for strong thunderstorm development. However, it looks like that upper level clouds will move from the southwest as well. If the day stays cloudy, then it will shut down the diurnal heating mechanism, preventing heavy rain from developing. Since this is an evolving scenario, the confidence is low to medium at this time. Similar conditions will prevail on Saturday, with the influence of the upper level trough and high clouds moving from the southwest. By Sunday and Monday, there could 153be breaks in the cloud layer, which should allow for more warming and thunderstorms in the afternoon for western Puerto Rico. For these days, the risk of flooding will be elevated, with urban and small stream flooding likely.

By the end of the period, temperatures are expected to warm up too, so highs could climb to the low 90s for most coastal areas in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

Trade wind SHRA will mv acrs most terminals thru 30/1314Z, bringing brief MVFR conds, mainly at TJSJ/TIST, while VCSH at TISX/TJPS. Aft 30/17Z, SHRA/isol TSRA will dvlp over land, affecting SW PR (TJPS) with brief MVFR/IFR conds. Aft 30/22Z, SHRA redevelop ovr windward terminals. NE winds 812 kt with occnl gusts at USVI terminals, incr after sunrise to 1620 kt with gusts up to 2630 kt, higher near SHRA/TSRA, causing ocnl turb and brief ops impacts.

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

A surface trough north of the region will maintain moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds across the local waters today, promoting choppy seas. An approaching frontal boundary from the western Atlantic will interact with available moisture, leading to increasing shower activity, particularly from late Monday into Tuesday. A long-period northerly swell combined with strengthening winds will result in deteriorating marine conditions beginning late Monday night and continuing through much of the Spring Break week. Hazardous seas are expected, with conditions becoming dangerous for small craft operators.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today, while a low risk will persist along south-facing beaches.

Conditions are expected to worsen from this evening through at least Friday due to the arrival of a long-period northerly swell combined with breezy to windy trade winds. This combination is likely to create life-threatening rip currents and dangerous high-surf conditions along the north-facing exposed coastlines.

Beachgoers should exercise caution and remain aware of changing marine conditions. Always swim near a lifeguard and follow local safety guidance.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Friday evening for PRZ001-002-005-008-010.

High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for PRZ012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight AST Friday night for AMZ711-712.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight AST Friday night for AMZ716-723-741.