textproduct: San Juan

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 201 PM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto Rico and the USVI are expected to last through at least midweek. Unsecured and outdoor objects may blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds will continue to result in choppy to rough seas and a high risk of rip currents across the region. Small Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements continue in effect through late Tuesday evening.

* Variable weather conditions expected for the rest of the afternoon and tomorrow, Monday, with trade wind showers moving from time to time across the islands.

* By Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms activity will increase, elevating the flooding and lightning potential over Western Puerto Rico in the afternoon.

Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 201 PM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

The morning began slightly wet, with passing showers moving across eastern Puerto Rico and rainfall accumulations ranging from 0.03 to 0.40 inches. Winds remained relatively strong, generally 15 to 25 mph with gusts between 30 and 40 mph, with the strongest gusts observed at Buck Island (41 mph) and Ponce (37 mph) during the past 12 hours. Through the rest of today, patches of low-level moisture embedded in the easterly trade winds will continue to move across the islands. In addition, local effects such as the Culebra, El Yunque, and Vieques streamers may allow showers to organize in bands at times, producing additional rainfall accumulations. However, rainfall totals are not expected to exceed around 1 to 1.50 inches through the afternoon and nighttime hours. Shower activity will gradually diminish this evening, although isolated trade-wind showers may persist overnight across windward coastal areas. This general pattern of morning trade-wind showers followed by afternoon convection is expected to continue through Monday.

Beginning Tuesday, moisture is expected to increase across the region as an upper-level trough extending from Jamaica and eastern Cuba toward Hispaniola will linger over the northeastern Caribbean through at least Thursday. This feature, along with a persistent jet aloft, will promote increasing instability and support periods of enhanced shower activity and locally heavier rainfall through midweek, while temperatures remain near seasonal levels across the islands. Precipitable water values will rise to near or slightly above seasonal levels, while mid-level temperatures cool to around - 8C or slightly below, supporting a more unstable environment. Under these conditions, showers will continue to favor eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the night and morning hours, with afternoon convection developing across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico.

Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Issued at 201 PM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

Issued at 252 AM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

At the surface, a broad high pressure system over the central Atlantic extending into the Caribbean will maintain moderate easterly winds across the region. Under this pattern, abundant patches of precipitable water with values ranging between 1.5 and 1.7 inches will continue to move across the area. At the upper levels, somewhat unfavorable weather conditions will persist with the presence of an upper-level jet of over 100 knots, enhancing vertical development and unstable conditions aloft. According to model guidance, 500 mb temperatures will range between -8 and -9 degrees Celsius. Given these conditions, from Wednesday into Thursday weather conditions will favor a showery pattern with good chances for showers. However, since surface conditions will be mostly driven by windy conditions, showers are not expected to produce significant rainfall accumulations. On Wednesday, surface winds will remain from the east; therefore, the focus of the showers will remain across eastern sections and the western interior of Puerto Rico. By Thursday, surface conditions will change slightly as winds at the 03 km layer become more southeasterly due to the interaction between the surface high pressure and a pre-frontal trough associated with a frontal boundary exiting the eastern coast of the United States.

From Friday through Sunday, mostly similar weather conditions will persist under the influence of a broad surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic, which will be reinforced as a frontal boundary pushes eastward and another high pressure system builds over the western Atlantic. Under this pattern, moderate easterly winds will continue to prevail across the region, allowing patches of moisture with precipitable water values slightly above climatological normals to move across the islands. At the upper levels, a mainly zonal flow will remain in place, generally supporting fairly stable weather conditions across the northeastern Caribbean. Given these expected conditions, the forecast calls for a typical trade wind pattern with periods of passing showers moving across the windward sections during the overnight and morning hours, followed by isolated to scattered showers developing across interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon due to local effects and daytime heating. However, rainfall accumulations are expected to remain limited overall due to brisk winds, which promote faster-moving showers and prevent prolonged rainfall over any particular area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 201 PM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

All TAF sites should experience VFR conds thru the period. Variable winds btwn 15-20 kt with higher gusts around 30-40 kt through 08/23Z. VCSH to -RA possible over TJPS through 08/22Z. VCSH could affect TIST, TISX, TSJU terminals through the overnight. Winds should diminish to around 10 kts in most TAF sites.

MARINE

Issued at 201 PM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

A broad surface high pressure of the Western Atlantic will promote fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds for the first part of the week. Based on the latest altimeter data, seas continue between 7 and 9 feet over Atlantic and Caribbean offshore waters, including the Anegada and Mona passage, while local nearshore buoys show wave heights between 5 and 7 feet. Additionally, scatterometer scans show winds between 15 and 25 kt, while local buoys report 15 to 20 kt, gusts up to 25 to 30 kt. These conditions continue to maintain choppy to rough seas across regional waters and local passages, hazardous for small craft. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through late Tuesday night. While a gradual improvement is expected across the region by the end of the workweek, operators of smaller vessels are strongly urged to avoid navigating in these hazardous conditions.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 201 PM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

The beach forecast remains on track. Breezy to windy conditions continue across the CWA, with winds between 15 and 25 mph and wind gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. Additionally, the latest altimeter scans show seas between 7 and 9 feet, and local nearshore buoys report 5 to 7 feet. This could result in breaking waves equal to or higher than 6 feet, becoming hazardous for beachgoers. Therefore, the Rip Current Statement remains in effect for northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Monday noon. Nevertheless, residents and visitors are urged to continue to monitor conditions closely and strictly adhere to the advice of beach patrols, flag systems, and posted signs. While a moderate risk continues elsewhere for the next several days, all beachgoers should exercise caution, as life- threatening rip currents remain possible along the surf zone. Beach conditions are expected to gradually improve by Tuesday into Wednesday.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Tuesday night for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Monday for AMZ712-716-723- 726-733-741.