textproduct: San Juan

Short Term(Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

The night hours were active along a great portion of Puerto Rico, with widespread showers and even isolated thunderstorms along the west interior, and northwest. Showers were less frequent in the Virgin Islands, but still, some interruptions of rain were observed. Flood advisories were needed for portions of the San Juan metro area and northwestern Puerto Rico , since heavy showers were reported. Additionally, water surges were reported by the USGS river sensors across many sites in Puerto Rico.

All this rain that is moving over the islands is associated with a frontal boundary stationary north of Puerto Rico. In fact, a swath of above normal moisture is evident in the satellite-derived precipitable water product. Behind the front, high pressure will roll eastward north of the islands, with winds coming out of the northeast on Sunday, east on Monday, and southeast on Tuesday. the surface winds will continue to push moisture from the north today, so showers will be scattered to numerous along the local islands. In the morning, the heaviest activity is expected to reach the northern half of Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. In the afternoon, these showers will also begin to affect the south. Additional areas of ponding of water, water surges along rivers can be anticipated. Also, some areas, especially along the interior and northern Puerto Rico may experience urban and small stream flooding.

Conditions look drier by Monday and Tuesday, with drier air gradually filtering in at the mid levels. The dew point depression at the lower levels is expected to be big enough to suppress organized shower activity. Short-lived activity cannot be ruled out along the east of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (10-20% probability of precipitation), with some additional showers in the west each afternoon. In general, fair weather is anticipated to begin the workweek. Temperatures will warm up too, with 925 mb temperatures about one standard deviation above normal.

Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)

Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

The long-term period will begin with a passing upper-level short- wave trough and associated zonal jet support moving across the region. This feature will briefly promote slightly cooler-than- normal mid-level temperatures and modest instability early in the period. However, moisture will remain shallow and largely confined below 700 mb, with persistent dry air aloft limiting vertical development. By late week, deep-layer high pressure will build, gradually stabilizing conditions. As this high strengthens and shifts eastward through the weekend into early next week, the local pressure gradient will tighten before relaxing, resulting in strengthening easterly winds that later veer to the southeast and weaken. Mid-level temperatures will warm back to near normal by late week and trend slightly above normal at times early next week, while low-level temperatures respond to the developing southeasterly flow with a gradual warming trend.

In terms of hazards and sensible weather, shower activity will remain limited throughout the period due to shallow moisture and a persistent trade wind inversion. Expect mainly brief overnight and morning trade-wind showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by isolated afternoon convection over interior and western Puerto Rico. Flooding concerns are expected to remain low given limited moisture depth and dry mid-level conditions. The primary hazard focus will shift to wind-related impacts late in the week and over the weekend, as fresh to locally strong easterly winds promote breezy periods across coastal and elevated areas. Early next week, winds will veer to the southeast and gradually weaken, while above-normal temperatures become more likely under continued generally stable conditions.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

SHRA and isolated TSRA will continue to move at times through most of the forecast period. Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are anticipated, along most of the terminals, but especially along TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST. Mountain obscuration is also expected across the Cordillera Central from 15-22Z. Winds will come from the ENE at 11- 13 kts, with stronger gusts, especially along TSRA.

MARINE

Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

A cold front moving across the northeast Caribbean will promote moderate to locally fresh northeast to east-northeast winds through at least Monday. This front will result in increasing cloud cover and rain chances as well as isolated thunderstorms. A long-period northerly swell will arrive around this afternoon, through early Monday morning, building seas between 5 and 7 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters, and possibly across the Mona Passage.

BEACH FORECAST

Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

We advise all beachgoers to exercise caution, particularly along the north-facing beaches from Rincon to Fajardo and throughout eastern Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. The risk of rip currents is moderate in these areas during the morning and early afternoon. The risk will be high later this evening into early Monday morning as a long- period northerly swell moves in, meaning that life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone. On President's Day, the risk of life- threatening rip currents will remain moderate along the north-facing beaches. Do not put your life at risk. For more information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PR...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late tonight for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon AST Monday for AMZ711.