textproduct: San Angelo

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.

- Dry conditions and well-above normal temperatures are expected through Monday.

- Near record highs possible on Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 154 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Thanks to strong radiational cooling, today is starting off cold with a light freeze for most of the area early this morning. South winds will increase and become gusty by midday and this afternoon, as surface pressure gradient strengthens. This to occur as surface high pressure ridge shifts east across the Lower Mississippi Valley and lee surface trough develops to our northwest. With ample sunshine, temperatures will warm up quickly and reach the upper 60s and lower 70s for highs this afternoon.

Tonight will be comparatively warmer with south-southwest winds, and breezy conditions across the Big Country. Lows are a bit tricky for low-lying areas in our central and southern counties, where wind speeds will drop to 5-10 mph. At this time, expect lows to range from 40-45 in some of the low-lying areas, to the lower 50s across most of the Big Country.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1217 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The upper-level flow will become quasi-zonal for Saturday and Sunday, which should result in persistent warm and dry pattern above- normal temperatures. A thermal ridge looks to develop by Saturday over west central Texas with 850mb temperatures around 20 deg C. This would result in high temperatures on Saturday in the low to mid 80s which would be potentially record-breaking. For reference, the record highs on Saturday for Abilene and San Angelo are 84 and 85, respectively, both set in 2010. Model spreads show a medium to high (60-75%) chance of exceeding these record high temperatures, with a low end chance of 88 degrees. A cold front is expected to move into west central Texas Saturday evening. Unlike the fronts we have seen in the past week or so, this one will not be very strong. In fact, high temperatures will be in the mid 60s to around 70, which is still slightly above normal for this time of year.

Early next week the model consensus shows a 500mb ridge of 588dam building over northern Mexico. Model spreads show mean values of 75 to 80 degrees for high temperatures Monday through Christmas Day. This would be 20 degrees above normal for this time of year, so anybody hoping for a white Christmas this year will be disappointed. More high temperature records may be tied or broken on Monday and perhaps even on Christmas Day. Considering the fact that the Winter Solstice is on Sunday, and the hours of daylight are reaching their lowest point of the year of around ten hours per day, makes this warm pattern even more remarkable.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light/variable winds overnight will become southerly after daybreak. Wind speeds will increase to 10-20 kt by the late morning, with gusts of 20-30 knots in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

We are issuing a Fire Danger Statement for today (this afternoon). Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this afternoon, due to a combination of increased/gusty south winds (15-20 mph with higher gusts) and relative humidity values dropping to 18-22 percent. In addition, area grasses are cured from freezes in the past few weeks. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected on Saturday. Winds (from the southwest) will not be as strong as today, but will still be somewhat gusty. Near record warm temperatures (forecast afternoon highs mostly 80-85 degrees) will be combined with relative humidity values dropping to 15-20 percent north of a Sonora to Coleman line, and 20-25 percent for areas farther south and east. A cold front will move south into the Big Country Saturday evening, and across the rest of the area Saturday night. North winds 6-12 mph will follow passage of this front overnight into Sunday morning. However, wind speeds will be decreasing Sunday afternoon and relative humidity values will stay above 30 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Abilene 70 53 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 70 48 83 40 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 70 45 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 70 43 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 72 52 83 41 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 67 42 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 69 50 82 44 / 0 0 0 0

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.