textproduct: San Angelo

KEY MESSAGES

- A Flood Watch is in effect through this afternoon.

- Pockets of heavy rainfall are possible overnight tonight and through Sunday as a weak cold front moves through.

- Medium chances of heavy rainfall for the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country on Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Lingering light to moderate showers along the stalled from continue this morning across portions of the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, diminishing in coverage into the mid morning hours. The main impacts with these lingering storms will be localized heavy rainfall that could potentially lead to localized flooding, lightning, and breezy winds. There remains some uncertainty in forecast with regards to shower and thunderstorm redevelopment later this morning into tonight, as models continue to struggle with the timing and placement of these storms.

Some of the deterministic models and ensembles show more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight, whereas the CAMs are currently showing slightly earlier development later this morning and less coverage mainly south of the I-20 corridor. Either way, the flood watch will remain in effect through this afternoon, and may need to be extended into the tonight period depending on how the showers and thunderstorms pan out this afternoon and evening. Temperatures today will remain on the cooler side, low 80s to low 90s, given the potential for widespread cloud cover and shower coverage today. However, if conditions become less cloudy and there is less shower coverage, temperatures could end up warmer today. Lows tonight are expected to fall back into the mid 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The frontal boundary that has been nearly stationary over the past two days will push southward on Monday into south-central Texas. A drier airmass should move in behind the front and cause rain chances to decrease from north to south on Monday. By late afternoon, the best chances for rain will be across the Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country (40-50%) with much lower chances for the Concho Valley (20-30%) and the Big Country (<20%). Upper-level impulses embedded in the northwest flow aloft will help enhance shower and thunderstorm development across the Edwards Plateau during the morning. DESI probabilities show medium chances of 1-2 inches of rainfall in this area during the day, so the Flood Watch currently in effect may need to be extended for southern counties through Monday. Otherwise, given mostly cloudy skies and chances for rain, high temperatures could stay in the mid 80s, except for the Big Country which will have the least cloud cover and could reach into the low 90s.

For the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe drier conditions with seasonal temperatures are expected for west central Texas as northerly winds continue. Towards the end of the week, models show an upper-level trough centered just north of the Great Lakes will dip southward into the central and eastern US. Another surface frontal boundary looks to drop into Texas from the northeast by Friday. Here, global models diverge as to what could result based on varying factors, including how far south the front will go. The GFS shows the remnants of yet-to-develop tropical depression moving in from the east Pacific and introducing rain chances into west Texas. The European shows this tropical disturbance moving westward away from North America, resulting in lower rain chances for the weekend. For now, rain chances were kept around 20% for Saturday with seasonal temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Some lingering MVFR ceilings remain as the isolated showers from earlier this morning begin to dissipate, leaving an abundance of low-level moisture and low stratus across some terminals through 15Z this morning. There remains some uncertainty with regards to shower and thunderstorm development today, as models continue to struggle with the placement and timing of these systems which could mean the difference between VFR and MVFR conditions. Utilized PROB30 and TEMPO groups in the TAF package to show for this uncertainty. A brief reprieve is expected later this morning into early this afternoon, with VFR ceilings prevailing prior to the next round of showers and thunderstorms that can bring back the potential for MVFR conditions this afternoon into the overnight period again tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Abilene 86 70 88 66 / 70 30 20 0 San Angelo 86 68 85 64 / 80 50 30 10 Junction 88 67 85 64 / 80 70 70 10 Brownwood 84 68 85 64 / 80 40 40 10 Sweetwater 87 69 89 66 / 50 20 20 0 Ozona 86 68 85 63 / 80 70 60 10 Brady 83 68 83 65 / 80 60 50 10

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman- Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason- McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford- Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.