textproduct: San Angelo

KEY MESSAGES

- Main complex of storms will exit the area to the east early this morning. More scattered showers and storms are expected to redevelop this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated through the end of the work week, with heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms possible at times.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

MCS continues its slow and steady progress across the Heartland and Hill Country early this morning, and should be exiting the area to the east by sunrise. Weak remnant upper low still looks to remain however, and with a virtually uncapped air mass in place, CAMs show more redevelopment across the area later this afternoon and evening. Still some questions about how widespread this will be just because the air mass has now been worked over twice in the last 24 hours by MCS's rolling across the area, so suspect activity may end up a little more scattered than some of the CAMs suggest. Still will carry chance POPs across the western portions of the area, with more likely POPs this afternoon/evening across the Heartland and Hill Country on the southeast side of the upper low.

Given the air mass, risk of anything severe is pretty small. Pockets of heavy rainfall though are entirely possible, and with much of the area with fairly saturated soils, a few flood warnings and advisories may end up being required. A little more diurnal set up for today, so POPs should be decreasing overnight.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The chance of rain will end by Thursday evening and then hot and mainly dry conditions will return this weekend and early next week. The upper level storm system and abundant moisture will be east of the area Thursday and an upper level ridge will build over the area this weekend. However, the slow movement of this system may lead to a final round of thunderstorms across mainly the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. For Friday through early next week the upper level ridge will result in warmer temperatures with highs in the 90s this weekend and then mid 90s to around 100 early next week. it will also be humid through the long term as dewpoints remain the 60s to lower 70s. Afternoon heating and some instability could lead to a few thunderstorms each afternoon, but rain chances look very low Friday through Tuesday across much of the area. The only exception to this is Friday night, as a small complex of thunderstorms may move across the northern Big Country.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Widespread showers and storms have moved across the central terminals during the evening hours and will spread across the eastern locations of KBBD and KJCT through sunrise. A few showers also noted to the north near KABI as well, although considerably less widespread. Will use radar trends to time the showers/storms for the first few hours. After sunrise, models show considerable spread in the wake of the MCS. Most show some redevelopment near KABI near the center of a remnant upper low, but development farther south is much more of a question. Will leave out a mention of convection at many locations for now with this much uncertainty, and will amend as needed as we get past the ongoing MCS and can see how the air mass is responding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Abilene 79 67 86 72 / 60 40 20 20 San Angelo 81 66 90 70 / 60 20 10 10 Junction 84 66 88 70 / 70 40 20 10 Brownwood 79 66 85 70 / 70 50 40 10 Sweetwater 81 65 90 72 / 60 20 10 20 Ozona 82 66 90 70 / 60 10 10 10 Brady 80 66 85 70 / 70 50 30 10

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.