textproduct: San Angelo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today mainly east of a Rotan to Junction line. - A notable warming trend will result in daily highs 15-19 degrees above normal Sunday, and 18-22 degrees above normal Monday.

- Much cooler (near to below normal) temperatures will follow for Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 247 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Shortwave diving southeast into the area will strengthen and close off across North Texas today. Low level moisture remains in place and showers and even a few storms are possible ahead of the system today, with most of the high res models focused on the central and eastern Big Country and then south into the Heartland this morning. Area radars are showing a little of this developing across the South Plains and should eventually expand in coverage as it reaches the area later this morning. Models are a little more aggressive with the convection holding in across the Big Country this afternoon as the deformation zone of the upper low develops and will continue some POPs through sunset for this area.

Otherwise, a little drier air mass will move into the area in the wake of the system and allow overnight lows tonight to be a little cooler across the area. More sunshine on Friday will allow a quick rebound into the 70s for much of the area.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 216 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

A series of surface lows and troughs will bring warm and dry conditions into Monday. For Friday, a surface low moving east through Oklahoma will bring downslope west winds, with a stronger low Saturday over Oklahoma bringing gusty northwest winds. On Sunday a lee trough will bring southwest winds, with a stronger surface low across Kansas/Oklahoma bringing breezy west winds. This will allow an expanding 850 thermal trough Monday to bring high temperatures in the upper 70s (Big Country) to lower 80s south.

A cold front Tuesday, along with a reinforcing cold front Wednesday (New Years), will bring cooler temperatures at or slightly below seasonal values. No rain is expected with the cold fronts, with a dry atmosphere in place.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Fog and low clouds have dropped to IFR and low end MVFR at most terminals across West Central Texas. Meanwhile, an area of showers has expanded in coverage across the Big Country northwest of KABI. These showers should continue to expand through mid morning and may make it as far south as KABI and will therefore continue the mention of showers at that location. Otherwise, the low clouds and fog should continue through mid to late morning. As the shortwave responsible for the showers shifts east of the area this afternoon, west and northwest winds should drive some of the low level moisture off to the east and allow for VFR conditions to return to all terminals except perhaps KABI. The deformation zone of the system may keep KABI in MVFR cigs well into the afternoon. Will also need to monitor the precipitation across near KABI to make sure it exits on schedule, or the mention of showers may need to be extended a little longer.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Abilene 62 43 70 48 / 40 0 0 0 San Angelo 66 41 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 72 38 77 44 / 10 0 0 0 Brownwood 67 41 73 43 / 50 0 0 0 Sweetwater 59 44 69 48 / 20 0 0 0 Ozona 67 41 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 69 41 74 47 / 20 0 0 0

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.