textproduct: San Angelo

KEY MESSAGES

- There is an enhanced risk of severe weather across the Big Country tonight, with a lower risk of severe storms across the remainder of West Central Texas.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday night.

- A brief light freeze may be possible Sunday morning in low lying and protected areas.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A large scale upper level trough will remain west of the area the next 24 hours. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary that moved through the area this morning will lift back north as a warm front overnight. The front is expected to stall along or just south of the I-20 corridor by late this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of the front per latest CAMs, with the HRRR developing convection a bit farther south across the Concho Valley by late evening. The NAM12 focuses convection mainly across the Big Country after midnight. A strong low level jet will develop just after midnight, with perhaps the best area of storm development along the nose of the low level jet across northern portions of the Concho Valley into the Big Country and just north of the stalled frontal boundary. Highest POPs for tonight and the greatest severe threat will favor northern portions of the Heartland into the eastern half of the Big Country, where a slight and enhanced risk for severe storms exists. As such, elevated supercells will be possible and will favor mainly a large hail threat with any storms that do develop, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Precipitation is expected to move east of the area around daybreak Thursday, with dry weather for the rest of the day before the next chance for storms arrive tomorrow night. The aforementioned front will drift south during the day, keeping temperatures cool to the north and warm south of the front. Highs will range from the mid and upper 70s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 80s along the I-10 corridor.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A much more active weather pattern will continue across the region over the next few days. The well developed low pressure system develops across the Four Corners Region and will move across the northern half of Texas developing more widespread thunderstorms on Friday night into Saturday morning. Much colder air will funnel into the region behind the cold frontal boundary. The NAM model, along with other models, is now showing a faster push of cold air to the south. This may act to push the associated thunderstorms across the region quicker. Despite this, locally heavy rainfall may produce rainfall totals near an inch. This could pose a Marginal Risk (5% chance) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted portions of our area on Friday through Saturday morning. Some severe weather is possible. Large hail and damaging winds seem to be the primary hazards at this point. The Storm Prediction Center has much of our area in a Slight Risk.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Conditions will quickly deterioriate during the first six hours of the TAF period as MVFR ceilings and scattered thunderstorms will develop. Thunderstorms on each terminal should be brief, but impactful hail and strong wind gusts possible. MVFR ceilings could persist until late morning for some locations with some few to scattered layers in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Abilene 82 55 73 54 / 20 70 20 80 San Angelo 85 56 81 55 / 10 30 0 70 Junction 90 62 88 62 / 10 20 0 50 Brownwood 85 58 79 57 / 20 50 30 70 Sweetwater 81 54 74 53 / 10 50 10 80 Ozona 86 58 84 58 / 10 20 0 70 Brady 86 61 82 61 / 10 20 10 50

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.