textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

- Cold front driven thunderstorms across Oklahoma will attempt to move into the region late this evening, and through the early overnight period.

- Dangerous heat, including triple digit heat indices, are expected through the week, and the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

- Rain chances become minimal by the end of the week, but return by the end of the weekend, with amounts generally below an inch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Rather quiet across the Four State Region as we head into the afternoon. That being said, temperatures are quickly climbing with many of the 12 PM CDT obs holding temperatures in the upper 80's, and even some low 90's at both SHV and TXK. To be expected by this point, the afternoon field of cumulus will remain overhead as diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms focus across the eastern and southern zones. To the north of the FA, a cold front will drift southward through the day, allowing for convective coverage to increase across central Oklahoma through the mid and late afternoon. This linear complex will attempt to work southward into SE Oklahoma and the I-30 vicinity around midnight. Hi-res guidance has been consistent in its presentation that the complex will gradually dissipate through the overnight hours, potentially even prior to reaching the I-20 corridor. To combat some uncertainty, elected to hold slight chance PoPs within the I-20 vicinity through the early AM hours.

Though the brief stint with the surface boundary to the north and the parent upper level trough swinging across the Upper Midwest will briefly tamper with the upper ridge overhead, the ridge will continue to influence the local region through tomorrow afternoon, again setting the stage for another hot day. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will return again as the seasonal diurnal convection trend continues through the first half of the week, with a focus along the stronger boundary forcing across the NE/E zones, though this time of the year anyone could see a pop up storm given lingering residual boundaries mixed with peak heating. Regarding the heat, and with another hot afternoon expected tomorrow, heat products may be needed as heat indices climb towards or possibly in excess of 105 deg F.

The story through the extended forecast, including the Fourth of July holiday weekend, will be the heat. Base NBM output is already pushing towards some higher end values, with highs in the upper 90's for many. Given the heat and aforementioned humidity, the odds that heat products will be needed through the holiday, and the upcoming weekend are increasing. With the ridge influence allowing for a somewhat attractive outdoor forecast for a holiday weekend, and with hot temperatures in play, hydration, shade and frequent breaks will be a must to avoid the risk of heat related illness. As it stands now, PoPs look hard to come by for the end of the week until the return of sea breeze based convection late Sunday afternoon.

KNAPP

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the 30/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field will persist across the region through the afternoon, diminishing shortly after sunset. However, scattered convection has developed along an old outflow bndry over SE OK, which will gradually progress SE into extreme SE OK/adjacent SW AR by mid to late afternoon. These storms may drift SE into far SW and Srn AR by early evening, before gradually diminishing by or shortly after 06Z Tuesday. Have maintained VCTS in for TXK only for this evening, although isolated weak seabreeze convection over SE TX may advance inland into portions of Deep E TX, but low confidence precludes VCTS mention at LFK attm. Scattered stratocu should again develop over the area by 14-15Z Tuesday, with isolated to widely scattered convection developing by mid and late afternoon over portions of Srn AR/N LA and NE TX generally along/N of I-20. SW winds 7-10kts this afternoon will become S and diminish to 3-6kts after 00Z. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over Southeast Oklahoma and portions of Southwest Arkansas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 78 96 77 96 / 20 20 10 20 MLU 76 96 74 94 / 20 40 20 30 DEQ 71 91 72 93 / 40 20 10 20 TXK 76 95 75 96 / 30 20 10 20 ELD 74 93 72 93 / 20 30 10 20 TYR 75 95 75 95 / 10 20 0 10 GGG 75 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 20 LFK 74 96 74 96 / 0 10 0 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.