textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1221 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Warm air and moisture advection continue to expand across the region along an advancing warm front, further increasing S/SE flow overnight through the day on Saturday.

- A neutral to positively tilted upper-level trough will support an increase in showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening with a low-end severe and flash flooding threat.

- The trough and associated Pacific cold front will exit the area by Sunday morning with a gradual warming trend and dry weather expected through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

This forecast period will be very front-loaded in terms of most significant weather impacts occurring early on within the first 24 hours before trending much more benign and uneventful beyond today and tonight. The unseasonably warm temperatures and muggy air mass in place are the result of a warm front that has managed to overtake the majority of the region, maintaining upper 50s to lower 60s overnight while dew points also continue to increase closer to the ambient temperatures. This is all occurring ahead of an upper-level trough ejecting E/NE from the Desert SW of southern AZ/NM near the border with Mexico. The resulting SW flow aloft in advance of the upper trough will allow for increasing deep-layer moisture, combining the Pacific fetch with surging Gulf moisture.

As a result, some isolated to scattered showers will be possible mainly across our NW zones prior to daybreak through much of this morning before more widespread convection and a threat of severe weather increases by this afternoon and evening. The area of most concern with respect to severe thunderstorms will generally remain along and especially south of the I-20 corridor due to instability limitations farther north. Even then, MUCAPE values are generally less than 500 J/kg in our southern zones while both deep-layer and low-level shear parameters are quite steep. Given the low CAPE and high shear environment, storm mode is expected to gradually evolve from clustered thunderstorms our to our west into more of a linear complex/loosely organized QLCS through the afternoon across East TX. The QLCS may become slightly more organized as it shifts east into SW AR and NW LA this evening, while maintaining an isolated damaging wind threat along with an embedded tornado threat owing to the strongly sheared environment.

In addition, very heavy rainfall rates along the intense line of convection may result in a localized flash flooding threat, with urban areas most at risk. On average, rainfall amounts are likely to range between 1-2 inches for most locations as isolated higher totals are also possible, mainly along and north of I-30. Severe and flash flooding threats should begin to gradually wane around or shortly after midnight for the entire region as some residual light precipitation and isolated thunderstorms may linger through daybreak Sunday morning before all the convection eventually exits the area by mid to late morning.

Milder temperatures will only briefly last into early next week before a gradual warming trend commences as high temperatures surge back into the 70s and lower 80s by the middle of next week. In addition, dry weather is expected to prevail throughout much of the week which is likely to result in worsening drought conditions in spite of this weekend's expected rainfall.

/19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

For the 14/12z TAF update...Aside from some decent conditions this morning, there will be no Valentine's VFR for today and for sure no heart-shaped clouds in the airspace above our terminals for this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region by early this afternoon and move southeast through the region into the evening and early overnight hours. As such, we have mention of SHRA, TSRA, RA and more with VFR CIGs throughout the majority of this period. Main thing will be exact timing, thinking what we have mentioned is a good representation of the most expected arrival time, but this could change some as things start to develop later this morning. Overall, looks like it will be a messy day when it comes to flight conditions. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1221 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon through tonight with the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 73 59 68 50 / 70 100 20 0 MLU 74 60 70 50 / 40 100 70 0 DEQ 66 53 65 40 / 100 100 20 0 TXK 71 59 68 47 / 90 100 30 0 ELD 71 56 67 45 / 70 100 50 0 TYR 71 57 65 47 / 90 100 0 0 GGG 72 56 67 47 / 90 100 10 0 LFK 73 56 68 50 / 80 90 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.