textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend and those with outdoor activities scheduled should plan accordingly. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors! - Locally heavy rainfall through the weekend will bring a localized flooding threat, particularly along and northwest of the Interstate 49 corridor. Remember, turn around, don't drown!

- Peak afternoon heat index values by the middle of next week should be near or above 100 degrees. Summertime heat safety plans should be reviewed and readied.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Expecting the recent periodic wet pattern to re-intensify this weekend as a broad upper level disturbance in southwesterly flow aloft pivots to the northeast across the Southern Plains and Arklatex. Deep and moist southerly low level flow today is directed more over western zones of the Four State region and will shift eastward and intensify tomorrow, as the aforementioned disturbance moves closer. Northward drifting and propagating convection through early this evening should primarily be west of Interstate 49 and should also mainly be diurnal in nature (i.e., dying off gradually in the wake of daytime heating). However, the first taste of increasing synoptic lift and thetaE advection arriving very late tonight in western zones may spur some increase in shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage there just before, or around, daybreak.

As mentioned, Saturday and Sunday should feature a good deal of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across our Four State region, especially during the afternoon hours when instability should generally be at its peak. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (and also Shift-of-Tails) suggests that the highest potential for heavier rainfall amounts in our area will be focused along and NW of the Interstate 30 corridor for both days, which is where WPC is focusing weekend rain totals of 1 to 3 inches (with localized higher totals possible) and where they also have a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. In addition, these same areas have been getting more consistent deluges over the past several days and Flash Flood Guidance values have been gradually lowering. But not just NW zones will be seeing precipitation and heavy downpours, although rain totals elsewhere will be generally in the 0.25 inch to 1 inch range for the period, although again, localized higher totals are anticipated. Some flash flooding issues cannot be entirely ruled out southeast of the Interstate 30 corridor and WPC's Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall covers that conditional risk. In addition to the heavy rain threat, there is enough combination of wind shear and instability through the weekend to not entirely rule out a severe storm or two, but primarily during the afternoon and evening over northwestern and far northern zones of the Four State Region. The previous Day 2 outlook from the SPC highlighted a Marginal Risk for severe storms tomorrow northwest of the Interstate 30 corridor, but the very recent Day 2 update pulled that threat just west of our area.

NWP guidance is rather consistent in pulling the disturbance in deep SW flow off to our north Sunday night, so convective activity will likely follow suit and taper off during the evening hours Sunday. Immediately after the disturbance departs, anticipate an upper level ridge of high pressure to build in over the Four State region and greatly decrease rain chances for at least Monday through Thursday. Some isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms cannot be ruled out each day in this period, but the main story will be temperatures roughly 5 degrees above average for the time of year. This will translate to high temperatures in the low to mid 90s the bulk of next work week. Elevated humidity values should result in peak heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range by the middle of next week and one or two days of needing Heat Advisories cannot be ruled out. Uncertainty by the end of the week is inherently lower, but there are indications of the ridge potentially breaking down quickly by next Friday, which could bring about a return to increasing rain chances.

/50/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 747 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions will continue this evening into a portion of the overnight hours, although various CU/AC/cirrus cigs will linger as isolated to scattered convection continues to develop and shift NNW across portions of Wrn LA and much of E TX. Have maintained VCSH for the E TX terminals this evening with tempo thunder mention at LFK and TYR, before MVFR cigs develop after 07Z over E TX/NCntrl LA and gradually lower to IFR by or before daybreak Saturday areawide. Cigs will slowly lift and become MVFR by mid to late morning, although VFR cigs will not return until midday or early afternoon as scattered convection again develops through the morning across E TX/adjacent SW AR, and areawide during the afternoon. Some thunder may accompany the scattered SHRA development, but have prevailed VCSH for the terminals for now as thunder should be isolated again, with tempo thunder mention more appropriate which can be added in later TAF issuances once timing/wind/vsby impacts are better known. This convection should eventually diminish by mid and late evening, before low MVFR/IFR cigs return late. Light ESE winds tonight will become SE 5-7kts after 15Z. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 747 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 74 86 73 88 / 10 50 50 60 MLU 74 87 74 87 / 10 70 20 80 DEQ 70 82 70 82 / 30 90 80 80 TXK 72 86 72 86 / 20 60 50 80 ELD 72 84 72 85 / 10 50 30 80 TYR 72 85 73 87 / 60 70 30 50 GGG 72 86 72 89 / 30 60 40 70 LFK 72 86 73 89 / 40 60 30 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.