textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Rain chances will remain across the region through mid-week, as an induced trough axis will hold serve over the region, flanked by a ridge to our west.

- The heat and humidity of early July will also persist, but daily rain chances will keep the more intense summer heat at bay at least temporarily.

- Forecast confidence continues to increase that upper ridging will begin to exert greater influence across our region late next week, which would mean a trend toward hotter and drier conditions once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

A weakened MCS moved across the region, which stabilized the atmosphere early this morning. By mid to late morning, some elevated convection developed across SE Oklahoma and adjacent SW Arkansas, generally north of I-30, but that convection is starting to diminish. Our focus now turns to some developing convection along a residual outflow boundary stretching from the Texas Panhandle all the way to Central Louisiana. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for generally the same areas, excluding the Louisiana Parishes, as convection has started to go up along that boundary this afternoon. The counties in our forecast area include, Smith, Gregg, Rusk, Cherokee, and Nacogdoches through 10 PM. With a surface based CAPE of 4000 J/kg, along with Downdraft CAPE values above 1000 J/kg, damaging winds will be a concern. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, with PWats just under 2". Some of this convection could continue into the late evening hours tonight.

Rain chances will remain in the forecast through at least the first half of next week, as weak troughing will remain across the region. It won't be a complete washout everyday, so the heat and humidity could be a concern for areas that receive little amounts of rain, as afternoon highs could climb into the low to mid 90s. Uncertainty still remains beyond the middle of this week, but models continue to hint at the return of upper ridging over the region, which would give us a break from the rain. It would also bring warmer conditions back into the region as well. /20/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Convection for the remainder of the evening will be largely confined to around KLFK, while -RA over KTYR and KGGG will slowly diminish over the next few hours. As precip winds down into the overnight, VFR ceilings/conditions will prevail; given calm winds overnight, some fog could develop and lend to a brief period of MVFR vsbys for most terminals across LA and AR, although confidence in this scenario is quite low. VFR ceilings will continue on Monday with scattered convection expected again by the afternoon, continuing through the end of this TAF period on 07/00z. Gusty and erratic winds as well as vsby reductions from heavy rain will be the main concern with convection on Monday. Winds light and variable through the period (except near and within convection), prevailing at times out of the W/SW around 5-6kts.

CK

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Although spotter activation is not expected today, spotter reports may be needed once again with the threat of isolated severe storms this afternoon, and possibly through at least the late evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 75 93 74 92 / 30 40 40 30 MLU 75 93 74 92 / 30 30 30 40 DEQ 71 93 70 92 / 20 20 20 20 TXK 74 94 73 94 / 30 20 30 20 ELD 72 91 71 91 / 30 30 40 20 TYR 76 97 75 96 / 30 30 40 20 GGG 76 95 74 94 / 30 40 40 20 LFK 77 95 75 94 / 30 30 40 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.