textproduct: Shreveport

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday) Issued at 107 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Moisture convergence along a weak frontal boundary across the Red River Valley of northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas to allow for patchy dense fog conditions across these areas through mid- morning.

Upper-level flow to become southwest across the ArkLaTex this morning ahead of an upper-trough across central Texas. Showers forecast to increase in coverage by daybreak as instability increase along the front. Cyclogenesis with the upper-trough to bring height falls that will result in a stacked low setup across northeast Texas by this afternoon. A frontal boundary extending south from the low will push east across the region within an airmass characterized by dewpoint values in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. A line of storms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail along with isolated tornadoes will be possible across much of the region around the the time of peak diurnal heating.

Conditions forecast to gradually improve this evening as the storm system translates east of the Mississippi River. With upper-level flow continuing to tap into southern stream moisture, mostly cloudy skies to prevail through much of Friday with lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms possible across portions of northeast Louisiana. /05/

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 107 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

A weak frontal boundary lingering across north Louisiana to allow for widely scattered diurnally driven convection through the early part of the weekend. An upper-level low rounding the base of a broad trough across the mid-conus will allow for increased instability areawide on Saturday. The combination of increased upper-level instability and low-level dewpoint values in the mid 60s ahead of an approaching surface front will be sufficient to generate a scattered convection across south Arkansas into north Louisiana on Saturday afternoon and evening. Some storms may produce gusty winds and hail.

West to northwest flow prevailing through the midweek to maintain mostly stable conditions across the region. Mild conditions expected through the weekend with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s dropping into the mid 50s early next week as cold high pressure builds from the north. Otherwise, low temperatures by midweek to average in the 30s. /05/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

No major changes to the 26/06z TAF period when compared to the previous. MVFR is present across most terminals this evening. The outlier being the brief period of IFR and even LIFR at KTXK and KELD where ceilings have dropped at or below 500 feet. Expectation is for more instances of this to occur through the overnight across other terminals. Ceiling heights look to be the main issue here through the overnight, though forcing aloft could support BR/-RA which in return would support subtle VSBY drops below P6SM. To combat this, elected to TEMPO in low ceilings and a subtle VSBY drop through the first four hours of the period. Main story will be the TSRA linear storm mode that will evolve through the mid to late afternoon, and through the end of the TAF period. As expected, VSBY and ceiling heights will fall, while terminal surface winds will climb as the line approaches. Western terminals will see some recovery just after 27/00z as the line pushes east.

KNAPP

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 150 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 67 55 70 55 / 90 60 10 30 MLU 69 57 72 58 / 70 90 20 40 DEQ 62 49 62 44 / 100 70 10 10 TXK 66 53 67 51 / 90 70 0 20 ELD 65 53 69 52 / 90 90 10 30 TYR 65 52 68 52 / 90 20 10 10 GGG 67 51 69 51 / 90 30 10 20 LFK 68 54 72 55 / 90 50 10 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.