textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- A weak cool front will drift south into the region late this afternoon through tonight, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms and thickening post-frontal cloud cover resulting in slightly cooler conditions Saturday.

- The unsettled weather pattern will persist for much of the coming weekend, before a warming trend commences Monday, as well as another prolonged period of dryness.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The early afternoon sfc analysis indicates the leading edge of a weak cool front that extends from SE AR into extreme NW LA into E and ECntrl TX, although the latest sfc theta-e places the more discernible cooler and drier air well N of the front, across Srn and SE OK into NCntrl AR. Still seeing scattered SHRA developing along and just behind the front early this afternoon over E TX/extreme SW AR, with PW's in excess of 2 inches still resulting in the ongoing convection as efficient rain producers with additional rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.00 inches/hour measured from several ASOS/RAWS/CWOP automated gauges this morning. Meanwhile, stronger diurnal heating SE of the front and away from the elevated cigs have resulted in moderate SBCape developing across portions of Sam Rayburn/Lower Toledo Bend Country into NCntrl LA, which has resulted in isolated convection having recently developed over these areas. This should be primarily outflow driven through the afternoon before diminishing by early evening with the loss of heating, with the convection along/N of the front expected to persist as ripples in the SW flow aloft help to enhance enough forcing to allow for additional convection redevelopment through the afternoon into tonight. Given the lack of appreciable deep lyr forcing along and behind this weak frontal zone, which is away (and SE) from the existing Flood Watch which has not seen significant storm totals since Thursday, have cancelled the Flood Watch for NE TX/McCurtain County OK, although lighter QPF amounts will still remain possible here through tonight but will not be excessive enough to cause flooding.

This weak frontal bndry should make a little better Swd movement through the remainder of the region this evening/overnight once mixing ceases, with sfc winds becoming more NNE even ahead of the front as the post-frontal low stratus forms and shifts S through the area by/prior to daybreak. The potential will exist for additional scattered -SHRA redevelopment overnight especially over E TX into SE OK/SW AR into Saturday morning, as weak perturbations linger aloft ahead of a weak upper trough axis that will extend from a developing cut off low over far W TX near ELP, through the Big Country into Cntrl/NE OK into Nrn AR. In fact, the remnants of this weak cut off low are progged to drift NE along the trough axis Saturday, which should help to reinvigorate scattered convection development especially over NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure aloft remains progged to drift W across the SW Gulf this weekend, with an attendant inverted trough aloft extending NE from the low center expected to come ashore the SE LA coast by daybreak Saturday, drifting inland NNW into adjacent Srn MS. Should see an increase in convection as it spreads NW across N LA through the afternoon, before diminishing during the evening. Although brief heavy rainfall will be possible with this convection, the fact that little if any rain has fallen over this area in the last 24 hrs and the mostly disorganized nature of the convection should preclude any flood threat. The NBM did highlight likely to categorical pops over a large part of Lower E TX/N LA Saturday night, but given the reduced forcing on the NW (subsident) side of the H850-700 low over SE LA, lack of appreciable instability, and various hi-res and deterministic model consensus on a drier solution, have significantly cut back pops/QPF to low chance for these areas overnight through Sunday morning.

While the weak shear axis aloft will linger across NE TX/Srn AR and in VC of N LA Sunday, a deeper wedge of drier air will begin to mix S through the post-frontal air mass, with any isolated to widely scattered convection diminishing from N to S through the day. Again tapered pops lower than the NBM through the day Sunday, before dry conditions return areawide Sunday night as the NW flow aloft develops ahead of the Four Corners Region upper ridging. Seasonal temps are expected to start the new work week even with the increased insolation, but the return to above normal temps nearing/exceeding 90 degrees are expected for mid and late week as the ridge center begins to shift E through the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley. Unfortunately, an extended period of dry conditions will return areawide throughout the work week as well.

15

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, our TX sites are IFR/MVFR with SHWRS from KTYR/KGGG to KTXK, while VFR unfolds for AR/LA. Our current unsettled pattern lies along a rain cooled boundary with shallow NE10KT flow from SFC up to 2kft. Attm climb winds slack and veer to S/SE, then bump to 10-20KT through the middeck with deep SW20-40KT flow aloft for FL220-350. Copious Pacific moisture from old Polo and yesterday's TS debris. Our NE winds will deepen up to 3-4kft with 5- 15KT, building down from a 2nd SFC high, sprawling across Canada into the MS River Valley late Sat, which will dry us out by Sun.

/24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 71 85 68 82 / 20 30 30 30 MLU 71 88 69 81 / 20 40 50 40 DEQ 66 77 64 85 / 30 30 20 10 TXK 67 78 65 82 / 30 30 30 20 ELD 67 83 65 82 / 20 20 30 30 TYR 70 80 68 82 / 40 40 30 30 GGG 70 83 68 82 / 30 30 30 30 LFK 73 86 70 82 / 20 40 40 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.