textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- A warm front will continue to lift back north from the coast this morning with advection fog moving into our southern zones just prior to daybreak.

- Above average temperatures are expected today, especially along and south of the warm front with afternoon highs ranging in the 70s to near 80 degrees.

- Deepening moisture behind the warm front will fuel widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday through Saturday night, aided by a potent upper-level trough and Pacific cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Despite the mild temperatures overnight through the morning hours, look for a quick surge in temperatures today as a warm front lifts back north across parts of the region through this afternoon. Some fog is expected initially this morning across our southern zones, possibly dense closer to Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country from Deep East TX into parts of Central LA. However, this will briefly delay the rapid warm-up as high temperatures will generally range through the 70s to near 80 degrees this afternoon despite a field of expanding cumulus clouds. Warmer overnight temperatures will follow compared to the past few nights as the warm front continues to lift farther NE into the region, holding lows in the 50s to low 60s under mostly cloudy to overcast skies. The increasing moisture advection along the warm front combined with weak isentropic lift in advance of an upper-level trough ejection across the Desert SW should result in some scattered convection beginning late Friday into Friday night across our NW zones generally along and north of I-30.

By Saturday morning, the upper-level trough will begin to shift NE into NM and eventually eastward across TX into our region late on Saturday into Saturday night. Initially, forcing will be rather weak across of our region throughout much of the day on Saturday, but then rapidly increase by late afternoon through the evening and overnight hours. This will result in showers and thunderstorms rapidly developing and expanding eastward throughout the afternoon across NE TX and SE OK, eventually spreading into NW LA and SW AR closer to sunset and farther east throughout the evening/overnight hours. In terms of of more precise timing, the later trend of more impactful weather arriving by late afternoon into the evening with respect to the strongest convection appears to still be the case. That doesn't preclude the chance for an occasional shower on and off earlier in the day/afternoon, but the period of most impactful thunderstorms and heavy rainfall has consistently trended later in the afternoon across our NW zones into the evening and overnight for most of South AR and North LA east of the I-49 corridor.

In terms of threats and impacts, a Marginal Risk of severe storms is now highlighted across the entire region. For now, a damaging wind threat still appears to be the primary severe weather threat as a linear storm complex/QLCS is expected to develop later in the event. However, very robust deep-layer and low-level shear profiles may support an isolated tornado and large hail potential as well. Likewise, training of thunderstorms will also present a heavy rain and flash flooding threat. This remains highlighted in the Day 2 ERO with a Marginal to Slight Risk across the region and a general range of 1-3 inches of rainfall expected. Heavy rainfall rates and localized higher amounts, especially in urban areas, may result in even more flash flooding concerns in spite of our ongoing drought conditions.

These threats will gradually begin to wane by late Saturday night into early Sunday morning as convection should largely exit much of the region by daybreak on Sunday. Some additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger through the first half of Sunday, but these are not expected to be very impactful. A dry weather pattern and a return to above normal temperatures will prevail for the early to middle part of next week.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Scattered cloud cover in moving into the region from the west at the top of the hour and should continue through much of the day. Cigs will begin to lower overnight tonight ahead of the showers expected on Saturday, with sites dropping to MVFR or lower by daybreak. There is still model uncertainty on the timing of general showers tomorrow. The forecast package depicts the earliest of the solutions, with other models pushing shower development off until closer to midday. Winds will be out of the southeast and light overnight, increasing to near 10 kts by the end of the TAF period. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Spotter activation may be needed on Saturday afternoon through Saturday night with the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 60 74 59 69 / 10 70 100 30 MLU 57 75 60 70 / 10 40 100 70 DEQ 53 67 53 66 / 40 100 100 30 TXK 59 72 58 68 / 30 90 100 40 ELD 54 73 56 67 / 20 70 100 60 TYR 60 71 56 66 / 20 100 90 20 GGG 58 72 57 67 / 20 90 100 20 LFK 59 73 56 69 / 10 90 100 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.