textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- A decaying complex of thunderstorms that will move into the region shortly before daybreak this morning will focus additional shower and thunderstorm development farther south across Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and possibly portions of North Louisiana later today.

- Isolated strong storms can not be ruled out this afternoon over East Texas and North Louisiana, with additional redevelopment expected this evening/overnight as a weak surface front drifts into the area and becomes stationary.

- Much needed rainfall will persist across much of the region Monday before gradually diminishing from northwest to southeast Monday night/Tuesday. The rainfall may be heavy at times, which may result in a localized flood threat mainly over portions of East Texas and North Louisiana.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Currently watching the ongoing MCS over NE OK/extreme NW AR attm as it gusts SE, along the base of a shortwave perturbation evident in the upper air analysis over this area which will continue traversing SE into Nrn AR through daybreak. The air mass ahead of this MCS over Ern OK/Wrn AR remains unstable with MLCapes of 2000-2500 J/kg while supported by effective shear near 35kts, although the shear and instability axis does begin to wane farther S into SE OK/Wrn AR S of FSM and thus, a continued weakening trend is expected through daybreak as it is timed to reach Nrn McCurtain County OK and adjacent SW AR between 9-10Z. The last several runs of the HRRR as well as the latest 00Z HREF remain consistent with overall timing/movement, with the lead gust front likely reaching the I-20 corridor of E TX/NW LA by late morning with the attendant convection diminishing with Swd extent. Given its forward momentum, the bndry appears probably to mix as far S as Deep E TX into portions of Cntrl LA this afternoon, possibly interacting with a Nwd moving seabreeze. Thus, have concentrated highest pops N of I-20 mainly this morning, and across Deep E TX/WCntrl LA this afternoon with mid to high chance pops elsewhere especially from late morning through the afternoon. With min temps not falling off much more overnight, daytime temps climbing into the lower/mid 90s across portions of Lower E TX/N LA coupled with lower/mid 70s dewpoints should still yield enough instability despite the weakening shear for isolated wet microbursts, but will ultimately be dependent on the position of the aforementioned mesoscale bndry from the morning convection and its influence with the seabreeze. Also of interest is a weak cool front entering the Srn TX Panhandle into NW OK early this morning, which is being convectively reinforced SE via 2-4+ mb/2 hour pressure rises, which should mix SE near the Red River Valley later this morning, and eventually into portions of extreme NE TX/SW AR this afternoon.

As the main jet begins to slowly sag S into OK/AR this evening/overnight, PVA increasing along the nearly stationary front as it settles over E TX/far Srn AR/N LA should result in the redevelopment of convection over these areas that will persist through much of the day Monday. Overall forcing doesn't look particularly strong within this dirty flow regime, but the addition influx of elevated Pacific moisture from Nrn Old MX interacting with the already rich and unstable air mass may result in some banding of heavier rain in VC of the front late tonight through Monday before drier air aloft begins to entrain SE along the developing longwave trough as it begins to pivot into the Midwest/Mid MS Valley. The various ensembles continue to suggest QPF's of 1-3 inches especially along/S of I-20 through Tuesday, with isolated higher amounts of 4+ inches possible where any banding does occur late tonight through Monday night. Given the persistent dryness in soil moisture as well as near to below normal streamflow across area rivers and bayous, these rains should be handled adequately although a localized flood threat can not be ruled out and thus, a Flood Watch will not be needed attm.

While a welcome reprieve to the heat is expected to start the new work week, temps will rebound back to near normal by Wednesday once the remnants of the old front washes out, with isolated to widely scattered convection likely lingering over Deep E TX/N LA where the seabreeze remains influenced by the Pacific moisture axis residing along the base of the broad longwave trough. The various GEFS/ECMWF ensembles remain persistent though with a weakness aloft in VC of Deep S TX Tuesday that may drift NE along the TX coast during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, focusing the potential for heavy rains across this area of the Middle and Lower TX coasts, before focusing an increase in convection over much of our region Thursday/Friday. While any tropical threat appears low attm, its tap and fetch of the warmer/richer Wrn Gulf waters will yield an increasing threat of heavy rain for SE TX/SW LA, which may translate farther N into E TX/N LA depending on the track and speed of this weakness aloft. Still too soon to speculate on QPF's with this attm given the wide spread in the various guidance, but the late Sunday through Tuesday's rains may prime the soils enough for a greater potential flood threat for portions of the region for late next week.

15

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

For the 14/12Z TAFs, the expected complex of showers and thunderstorms is entering area airspace from the north. Impacts will begin at KTXK within the next few hours, gradually pushing towards the I-20 corridor as the morning continues. Ahead of the storms, VFR CIGs are dropping to MVFR and will climb to lower VFR by late morning and early afternoon. BKN and SCT mid to high clouds will linger through the evening before deteriorating to IFR after midnight with renewed rainfall chances for our east Texas terminals before daybreak. The approach of a surface boundary will result in variable winds at maximum sustained speeds of 7 to 12 kts, becoming light overnight.

/26/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Spotter activation may be needed later this morning across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and portions of Northeast Texas, and for the remainder of the region later this afternoon and tonight. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 91 73 80 71 / 50 80 80 60 MLU 94 73 81 70 / 40 80 80 70 DEQ 83 68 78 65 / 90 70 50 10 TXK 88 70 79 68 / 70 80 60 20 ELD 90 70 79 66 / 50 80 70 40 TYR 91 73 81 70 / 50 80 80 40 GGG 91 73 81 70 / 50 80 80 50 LFK 93 74 84 72 / 60 70 80 80

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.