textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Heat will continue to be a concern through Saturday as heat indices range from 100 to 105 degrees. Precautions should continue to be taken to limit outdoor exposure and stay hydrated to avoid heat-related illness.

- An unsettled weather pattern will return beginning Sunday and continue through at least early next week, increasing rain and thunderstorm chances area-wide

- Scattered thunderstorms each day will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding, damaging wind, and small hail.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Afternoon water vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude ridge of high pressure over the Desert SW, with influence extending east across the Southern Great Plains, ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions and into the Southeast. To the north of this ridge, a short wave trough is located across the Central Great Plains, with another low-amplitude ridge extending across the large majority of the Northern US. Closer to the surface, high pressure over the Western Atlantic extends westward across FL, the Southeast, and the Gulf. A quasi-stationary boundary exists to the north of this expansive area of high pressure, draped roughly from the OK/TX panhandles into the Midwest and Southern Great Lakes Region.

With upper level high pressure influence across the Four State Region, heat will continue to be the main concern through the rest of today and again on Saturday. The Heat Advisory will remain in place thru 8PM this evening for portions of far NE TX, SE OK, and SW AR. Areas located outside of the Heat Advisory will still experience heat indices about 100 degrees, so necessary heat precautions such as limiting outdoor exposure, staying hydrated, etc. should be exercised area-wide. While the forecast will remain largely dry through the end of the day today, sea-breeze convection from the Gulf Coast may skirt far southernmost zones this afternoon and evening (15-25%) chance. The isolated and single-cell nature of the convection will limit the severe weather risk, however, gusty winds and brief heavy rain will remain threats if convection can either develop or advect into the local area.

For Saturday, overall conditions will not change much. Upper level ridging over the Desert SW will begin to retrograde and amplify, which will begin to dampen its influence over the Four State Region. This will allow for a more expansive cumulus deck by Saturday afternoon, and may also allow for a better chance for both the development of isolated convection as well as the advection of sea-breeze convection. The greatest chance for convection Saturday afternoon will be south of I-20. Conditions start to become more interesting Saturday night. As the upper level ridge continues to amplify, the previously mentioned shortwave trough over the Central Plains will begin to sink south/southeast towards the ArkLaMiss and TN Valley. Ascent from the trough will help intensify lift along the previously mentioned quasi-stationary boundary, likely lending to the development of a line of storms to the north of the CWA. Some of the these storms may be able to maintain themselves as they reach SE OK and SW AR, where they could be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Confidence in this is low, as the greater dynamics currently appear to remain to the north and east of the CWA but the threat cannot be ruled out. Convection should weaken and diminish into Sunday morning.

As the upper level ridge over the West continues to amplify on Sunday, the shortwave trough will continue to sink south into the local area. The quasi-stationary boundary near the surface will also begin to sink south slowly as a weak cool front, and the combination of both of these features along with a humid and unstable airmass will allow for the development of more widespread convection. The SPC is currently highlighting much of the local area in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, the main threat of which would be damaging wind.

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into early next week as a Rex-type block develops with the ridge of high pressure over the Rockies and Northern Great Plains and the shortwave trough retrograding into the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss. The lingering surface boundary will enhance convection over the area in tandem with the trough to make for fairly high rain and thunderstorm chances area- wide. While overall rainfall amounts range from roughly 1-2 inches, localized heavy rainfall could make for a flash flooding threat in addition to perhaps a low-end severe weather threat.

By mid-week ensemble guidance is overall suggestive that the area of low pressure could retrograde far enough west into Western TX to begin to lower the threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms. While much of the guidance leans this direction, there is still enough uncertainty in the evolution of this pattern to where rain chances could linger through the end of the forecast period.

CK

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Surface high to the east will maintain southerly winds up to 10 knots this afternoon, relaxing to around around 5 knots overnight. Winds on Saturday to become southwest at 5 to 10 knots. With afternoon heating, could see VCTS conditions across LFK this afternoon. Otherwise, aside from MVFR ceilings possible near daybreak at LFK, VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the period. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 78 94 78 92 / 0 10 10 60 MLU 78 96 77 92 / 0 20 30 70 DEQ 75 94 74 90 / 0 10 40 70 TXK 78 96 77 92 / 0 10 30 70 ELD 77 95 75 90 / 0 20 40 70 TYR 78 96 78 95 / 0 0 10 40 GGG 77 95 77 94 / 0 10 10 50 LFK 77 94 76 94 / 0 30 10 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...None. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112.