textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Widespread rain chances return early today, tonight and to start the weekend, as an upper disturbance moves our way. - A flooding threat could materialize overnight into Saturday along with a chance for isolated severe with damaging winds. - Light NW flow aloft may bring additional rain opportunities to start next week after a dip in the action on Father's Day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Light and variable winds overnight with midnight readings the warmest we have seen in a while with upper 70s and lower 80s for most. Dew points are varying with some saturation already, while other sites with wind have around a 5 degree spread. Patchy fog, some dense around daybreak will be possible with the moist ground adding evapotranspiration to mix. We may also see showers and isolated thunderstorms moving in early ahead of the upper disturbance which will deepen slightly right over OK/TX. The GFS is faster closing off a the upper weakness at 585dam this afternoon and the ECMWF lingers, but drops to 588dam with an elongated closed low by early Sunday. So this will keep action possibly heavy and moving slowly. So, while we are good north of I-20 and ready for more needed rainfall, the evolution of this upper low may require another Flood watch tomorrow for the overnight. The drought has lingering hot (D3,D2) pockets which need several inches before becoming a flooding problem. However, any slow moving storm could require a Flash Flood Warning if movement is very slow or stationary. It will be warm to hot today with another Heat Advisory from noon until 7pm this evening with highs around 90 potentially and the high RH. Speaking of moisture, our PWATs will remain elevated through Saturday but more clouds and rain will ease the heat.

As the upper weakness gets going with the heat and humidity, the heavy rainfall areas will crop up, and we will be on watch for those initial excessive amounts. The WPC has our greatest risk for excessive rainfall with a Slight Risk for our entire Four- State area, and surrounding areas for that matter. So for those traveling deeper into any of our four states, get a good check of the weather during this next day or two particularity. The days ahead also continue a Marginal Risk for excessive amounts in short order into the new work week. As far as severe, of course lightning is always dangerous and we know the drill. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors while enjoying area Juneteenth parades today and the great outdoors in general for this weekend. The SPC shows a Marginal Risk areawide for us today for damaging wind possible with cool pools edging outflow from convection into our going late Spring heat. The shear is weak, but CAPE and as mentioned PWATs of 2"+ are likely for some damaging winds in clusters or a potential downburst. Our sounding shows decent dry air aloft, but that will soup up in time lessening that threat. A weak backdoor cold front will pool moisture and slowly allow for E and NE winds to prevail today, but will be shifting back to S/SE for Saturday and then breezy SW on Sunday to boost the mercury back to averages for mid to late June. Early in the week, we will see another weak upper disturbance arriving on light NW with more of the same as far as potential localized flooding and isolated severe as our temps warm back into the lower 90s to round out the long term period. /24/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 653 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Low MVFR/IFR cigs have developed and spread N across much of the region this morning, along and S of a weak sfc front that extends from the I-30 corridor of NE TX to along the AR/LA border. Only slow improvement in cigs is expected this morning, before VFR cigs return by midday/early afternoon. Isolated to scattered -SHRA have recently begun to develop along the weak front, and will persist through much of the morning before a large complex of convection over Srn OK/N TX moves into the region between 14-16Z. These storms should reach the TYR/GGG/TXK terminals between 15-18Z, and the remaining terminals through the remainder of the afternoon, and will be capable of producing gusty winds in excess of 35kts, vsby reductions, and MVFR cigs. Conditions should return to VFR by mid to late afternoon/early evening as these storms diminish from W to E, although MVFR/IFR cigs should again redevelop by/after 06Z over much of the region. Scattered convection should also redevelop over portions of E TX/Srn AR/N LA after 06Z, and could affect all but the LFK terminal through the end of the 12Z TAF period. S winds 5-8kts today, except E around 5kts across Srn AR, will become VRB with the arrival of the convection late this morning/early to mid afternoon. Winds will become ESE around 5kts after 00Z. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Spotter activation may be needed today and tonight for potential damaging winds and flash flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 88 75 88 76 / 70 50 60 20 MLU 89 75 89 76 / 80 70 70 40 DEQ 84 71 87 73 / 60 30 60 40 TXK 87 73 89 75 / 70 40 70 40 ELD 85 72 87 73 / 80 50 70 40 TYR 90 75 90 76 / 60 40 50 10 GGG 90 75 90 76 / 70 50 50 20 LFK 94 76 92 76 / 50 50 40 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ017>020-022.

OK...None. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ149-152-153-165>167.