textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Despite a departing upper level trough, weak forcing and plentiful moisture is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Four State Region this afternoon.

- Overnight we will be watching a disturbance move eastward across Central and Northern Texas with showers and thunderstorms likely having an impact on at least our western half late tonight.

- Scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast at least through the remainder of the upcoming work week with maybe a little in the way of a reduction in storm coverage by this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

PWAT axis that was situated across our far southeast zones this time on Memorial Day has since shifted westward and was oriented from NE AR into the heart of N LA into far SE TX and SW LA. Despite a departing upper level trough to our north this morning, upper forcing still exists and coincides with this higher moisture axis. Mix in a little surface heating and you have the perfect ingredient for scattered thunderstorms to develop and that is exactly what we are seeing currently across much of the region. While this convection is mostly tied to daytime heating, with the loss of this heating later this evening, we should begin to see storm coverage and intensity wane. It's then when we call our attention to a disturbance forecast to move our way from the west later tonight.

An upper level trough later day will continue diving southward into the southern Great Basin but in advance of this feature, a subtle but potent spoke of upper level forcing will result in the development of some strong to severe thunderstorms across the Tx Hill Country. Various high res progs and CAMS are latching onto this convection and advancing it eastward overnight (albeit in a weakened state). Latest HRRR is showing a broken line of storms approaching our western most zones after midnight, continuing to weaken along its northward flank or near and north of the I-20 Corridor but continuing to maintain at least moderate intensity near but especially south of the I-20 Corridor as it moves into Deep East Texas/SE Texas towards sunrise Wed Morning. If this scenario pans out, would expect this complex to continue moving eastward post sunrise Wed Morning with new daytime convection having to rely on daytime heating and any remnant outflow boundary the morning convection leaves us with. Thus for this forecast, highest pops will be across our southern and especially southwest half the first part of the day on Wed, trimming pops back to chance variety during the afternoon. By Thu and into Fri, the above mentioned spoke of upper level forcing pivots north and becomes rather stationary with downstream ridging present from the Great Lakes into the Tenn Valley. There still should be plenty of moisture in place but the majority of forcing will be across our north and northeast most zones Thu into Fri. Have therefore tapered pops accordingly to get us through the remainder of the work week.

By the upcoming weekend, weak upper ridging will move into the region from the west but it's what we like to call a dirty ridge as there will be pockets of forcing combined with daytime heating to result in at least scattered convection both Sat and Sun.

Early next week becomes very uncertain as the eastern half of the country appears to be under the influence of upper troughing with a developing ridge of high pressure across the Intermountain West and into the Central Plains. If this pattern develops, our region will be between the two features which would at the very least allow for isolated to widely scattered convection to begin the upcoming work week.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

For the 26/18Z TAFs, a widespread Cu field has developed across area airspace this morning, prevailing upper MVFR to lower VFR CIGs. Scattered showers and storms are popping up already and will persist through the afternoon. Currently accounted for with prevailing VCTS, will amend if impacts to terminals look imminent. Storms and associated field are expected to dissipate into the evening, with scattered high clouds prevailing overnight until CIGs deteriorate to MVFR/IFR in the pre-dawn hours. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to move eastward out of Texas overnight towards dawn, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall impacts possible. Otherwise, south winds will become southeasterly, continuing at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 mph, becoming light overnight.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Can't rule out the possibility of spotter activation becoming necessary late tonight during the predawn hours as a complex of strong storms moves our way from Central Texas, otherwise the severe weather threat will be isolated at best thru the day Wednesday.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 70 83 69 85 / 40 60 30 40 MLU 70 84 70 86 / 20 50 30 60 DEQ 66 83 66 83 / 30 50 30 60 TXK 68 83 68 85 / 30 50 30 60 ELD 67 83 67 84 / 20 50 30 60 TYR 70 83 69 86 / 60 60 30 40 GGG 70 83 68 86 / 60 60 30 40 LFK 70 83 69 88 / 60 70 30 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.