textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Slightly cooler and drier air will begin spilling south into the region late this afternoon through tonight, with scattered showers diminishing from north to south later this evening.

- Warm and dry conditions are expected throughout the coming work week, with afternoon temperatures moderating back to near 90/lower 90s for mid and late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Welcome rains continue across portions of E TX/N LA as of early afternoon, although these rains will begin to diminish through the afternoon/evening as drier air begins to deepen/spill SSE into the region near and ahead of upper level ridging extending from the Desert SW N into the Great Basin. The afternoon water vapor imagery does continue to indicate a weak upper trough axis extending from SW TX NE through N TX/Cntrl OK, which remains progged to drift E into E TX/N LA even as the deep level dry air advects into the region from the NNW. While the low stratus cigs should gradually lift this evening over much of Lower E TX/N LA, cu and other elevated cigs should linger across a large portion of the area tonight, which will minimize the extent of weak cold advection that will commence ahead of sfc ridging building E into the Mid MS Valley. Thus, a large spread in temps is expected tonight, where temps were bumped up a bit above the NBM for the Srn zones to account for the lingering cloud cover and lack of cool/dry advection.

While the various short term progs suggest that the weak shear axis will linger over the region Monday, much of the cu field should scatter out and gradually erode through the afternoon over Lower E TX/N LA. Afternoon temps should rebound and warm back to near or slightly above the daily norms given the increased insolation, with a more noticeable increase in the drier air characteristic of dewpoints in the 50s over all but Deep E TX/NCntrl LA. Should start to see more in the way of more "cooler" and more Fall-like conditions Monday night, although radiational cooling will not be quite ideal yet as light NE sfc winds persist along the base of the sfc ridging.

More of a warming trend is expected Tuesday through the remainder of the work week, as the upper ridging begins to expand SE into the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley. Thus, afternoon temps will be climbing near/in excess of 90 degrees for mid and late week under strong insolation, although the early mornings will remain pleasant and near seasonal given the dry air that will remain in place for much of the week. The various progs continue to suggest that a weak upper low/trough may pinch off from the NW flow over TX by Thursday, eventually drifting E across the region Friday into next weekend. There still is a spread amongst the various guidance with the timing of this feature as it tracks through the region, and whether or not enough of a deep Srly return flow will resume near/ahead of this feature to help focus the potential for isolated to scattered convection. While the previous run of the NBM integrated into this forecast is more bullish with pops next weekend, the 12Z guidance this morning is much drier, confining the more concentrated convection farther SE into S and SE LA. Thus, the latter extended period will be subject to changes once the guidance comes into better agreement.

15

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, IFR/MVFR cigs are loosening up after a cool rainy start. The upper low is over NE TX and finally shoving the tropical axis of moisture over SE TX/ArkLaMiss. KLFK/KMLU still have shwrs/ocnl TS for a few more hrs as VFR skies clear from NW to SE early on Monday. NE SFC winds are 5-15KT and climb winds are NE10- 20KT up to 12kft. FRZ level is 14.6kft w/ no sat. aloft, but still loads of this Pacific cirrus. Light W winds ABV FRZ bump from 15 to 50KT by FL360. Ground is drying with decent spreads at daybreak preclude any BR as we move back to blue sky ops for the new week.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 65 86 60 89 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 66 87 60 90 / 20 0 0 0 DEQ 57 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 60 85 56 87 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 59 87 54 88 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 64 84 60 86 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 63 86 58 88 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 67 87 64 88 / 20 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.