textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Fire Danger threat soon peaks with lowering RH this afternoon and gusty winds starting to edge out of the MS River Valley.

- High pressure reforms overhead for us early this week and promises more summer-like heat, even in the mornings to come.

- Our next chance for rainfall and a cold front remain at odds in the long range models. Next weekend may be cool or still warm. More to come in subsequent model runs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

At 1pm, area temps remaining all in the low to mid 80s and will be approaching 90 later on this afternoon. We are late again, but seeing some gusts in central LA and perhaps NE LA in the coming hours. So far, the wind field around post tropical cyclone Isaias has not expanded into much of our area, but with few clouds, heating may be hampering that to some extent. Winds vary easterly from SE in E TX to E/NE in LA. AR/OK are also SE and we are seeing a few gusts in teens and low 20 mph range. The cyclone will continue to move away and our winds will slack gusts by sunset while the distant heavy rain areas climb the southern Appalachians through the remainder of today and tonight.

Our heights aloft are lower, owing to the upper level reflection of Isaias. These lower heights will edge away with storm, returning the building upper ridge pattern over the midSouth during Sunday, expanding northward across the MS River Valley and closing off into a 591 dam contour over our region during Monday afternoon. Winds aloft will be light and sinking air and elevated heights will bring back the 90s for Sunday and much of next week. The upper ridge holds on the ECMWF at 594dam over MS by early Thursday with the long wave energy in the intermountain west spinning in a core upper low over UT with rain showers just to our NW and holding as the upper low retrogrades back down into AZ, keeping our rain chances and heating on hold. Meanwhile, the GFS remains consistent with that core low lifting out in the pattern as a huge air mass pours out of Canada during Friday. So the GFS breaks down the upper ridge and ushers in showers and a chance for thunderstorms late work week, along the arriving cold front with a 1041mb surface high settling over the Dakotas.

So lots to work out here in the long term, but GFS maybe grabbing to much climo for next weekend. The primary issue appears to be Tropical Storm Rachel which is lifted into AZ/UT along the official NHC track with the GFS. And the ECMWF leaves the storm to decay over the Sea of Cortez and Western Mexican coastline. So we shall see which model reigns (rains) supreme in the coming days. Happy Columbus Day long weekend with our wildfire threat relaxing soon, as summer returns southerly winds and warmer mornings, while highs continue in the low to some mid 90s. /24/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, fair skies overnight with VFR this cycle. We have weak surface high pressure easing SEward into the lower MS River Valley with calm or light and variable winds overnight. We will be on the backside of this air mass after daybreak with our SFC winds shifting to S/SW 10KT or less with a few gusts possible. Summer-like conditions will warm lows this work week, and we may see brief daybreak BR in the usual spots, but no widespread convection until late work week w/ a fropa./24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 67 92 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 62 94 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 58 92 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 64 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 61 94 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 66 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 64 92 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 64 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.