textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Brief respite from heat headlines has ended as the upper ridge will gradually expand back across the region throughout this weekend, prompting an areawide heat advisory today.

- Remnant sfc trough will linger over the region today along the eastern periphery of the ridge axis, serving as a trigger for isolated convection through this afternoon.

- Intense heat will persist throughout much of next week before a possible pattern shift late next weekend, finally signaling the heat relief just time for the arrival of fall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The overarching weather theme through this weekend and especially next week is the building heat and humidity, prompting the return of heat advisory headlines today and likely for several more days. Although not very promising, we will at least maintain a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of the region for today. This will occur as a remnant surface trough interacts with abundant LL moisture as noted by the lower to mid 70s dew points.

Additional support for convection may come from upstream forcing as a disturbance rounds the top of the ridge axis over the Great Plains, yielding a low-end risk for a few strong to severe storms across our northernmost zones by later this afternoon through the evening hours as highlighted in the SPC Day 1 convective outlook. Elsewhere, convection will generally be much more isolated with brief pop-up variety showers and possibly a stray thunderstorm throughout peak heating hours before dissipating around sunset.

As we move in Sunday and much of next week, rain chances will be slim to none as the center of the ridge axis slowly migrates east across our region. The resulting increase in subsidence will push daily high temperatures back into the upper 90s for most areas and even some isolated lower triple-digits will certainly be possible. It probably goes without saying that additional heat advisories are likely to continue through at least the middle of next week.

Medium-range guidance does continue to provide some hope for a pattern change, although there remains plenty of ambiguity on just how this evolves by late next week into next weekend. For now, NBM guidance is trending slightly lower with temperatures by the end of next week while keeping rain chances very low to near nil. Perhaps, the much anticipated start of the fall season will bear fruit with some welcome changes just beyond this forecast period.

/19/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For the 12/06z TAF update...Radar imagery is still showing a few lingering light showers across southern Arkansas, but with current trends, I have kept any mention out of any prevailing groups at this time. Lower ceilings are expected to develop across much of the area around 12/09z, which could bring some brief MVFR conditions for KLFK, KTXK, and KELD towards morning. Another round of convection is expected for much of the region on Saturday afternoon and evening. There remains low confidence that any given location will see a direct impact, so I have maintained mention of VCTS for most of our sites. Expect light winds throughout this TAF period, with the exception of any gusty and erratic winds with any thunderstorms during Saturday afternoon.

/33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected, but a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out across parts of Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas later this afternoon into the evening hours.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 98 76 98 76 / 20 10 10 0 MLU 98 75 98 75 / 20 0 20 0 DEQ 97 70 99 71 / 20 0 0 0 TXK 98 75 98 75 / 30 0 10 0 ELD 98 73 99 73 / 40 10 10 0 TYR 99 76 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 100 75 99 74 / 20 0 0 0 LFK 96 74 95 74 / 20 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.