textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- A return to the heat and humidity is expected across the region Friday, but dry conditions will continue through Sunday morning.

- A more unsettled weather pattern will take shape Sunday afternoon through much of next week, with the potential for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The early afternoon sfc analysis indicates that our weak front has become stationary from portions of extreme NE TX and Wrn LA, with the bndry now beginning to retreat as bndry lyr moisture advection has begun with the return of a SErly low level flow. What's left of this front should be washed out by late tonight, setting the stage for the return to more humid conditions after a respite with the last fropa a few days ago. The afternoon water vapor imagery indicates ridging in place from the Upper Midwest S into ECntrl TX, with AC cigs having recently developed over Ern OK and have begun to slide SE into the region just ahead of the ridge axis. The short term progs continue to depict the ridge shift E through the MS Valley tonight, as it begins to flatten over the TN Valley and SE states Friday. With the upper flow flattening out Friday with the departure of the ridge, a weak shortwave trough will traverse E through the TX/OK Panhandles into Wrn OK Friday afternoon, as it shifts E through the state Friday night. But ahead of the trough, max temps will near or exceed 90 degrees across much of the area. Low level return moisture will remain quite limited/shallow ahead of this trough, although elevated cigs will quickly increase from the W through the day Friday/Friday night. While the developing SWrly LLJ ahead of the trough will not yield a particularly deep moisture fetch, bndry lyr moisture will deepen and aid in the return of low stratus Saturday morning, which will lift and scatter out by mid/late morning. Did bump the NBM max temps up a degree or two Saturday to account for increased warm/moisture advection, before additional low stratus develops/advects N and limits the extent of cooling Saturday night.

A SW flow aloft will develop from the Rockies out across the nation's midsection Sunday, ahead of a deepening upper trough that will dig through the Great Basin before this lead energy traverses through the Rockies Monday. Gulf inflow will begin to deepen across the region Sunday, which may enhance early seabreeze development during the afternoon. However, perturbations in the flow regime will yield an increase in scattered to numerous convection Monday through Thursday, although considerable discrepancies persist amongst the various ensembles as to the timing and placement of the convection development as these pertabations aloft traverse the region. While the thermodynamics and kinematics are not overly impressive next week, an isolated severe threat with heavy rainfall can not be ruled out with the potential for multiple MCS's develop and traverse portions of TX into the Lower MS Valley through much of next week, all the while providing beneficial rainfall to the region.

15

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR will persist into the weekend aside from a site or two with daybreak 6SM BR or aftn HZ. Our winds have veered to SE after a little E/NE earlier with a weak backdoor fropa and continue 5-10G16KT this aftn with further veering to S/SE after an overnight slack, by 15Z we'll see S10-15G25KT for Friday. A touch of cirrus, mostly contrails and some FEW/SCT middeck aloft on NW flow. Convection looks to return by Sun aftn, increasing in coverage/intensity through midweek. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through this weekend. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 68 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 63 91 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 63 88 68 88 / 0 0 10 0 TXK 68 92 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 63 91 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 68 90 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 67 90 70 89 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 67 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.