textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Can't rule out some isolated shower or thunderstorm activity this afternoon through the early evening hours across mainly our western and southern zones.

- We will be watching a complex of storm that will develop across the Texas Hill Country this afternoon/evening as it's remnants will be our key weather factor for Sunday.

- Storms should be weakening as they move into our western zones Sunday Morning but there could be an uptick in storm coverage and intensity with the aid of daytime heating Sunday Afternoon and Evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

An expansive cu field was observed across the western and northern half of our CWA today with some isolated showers already developing just to our west. As we go through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening, cannot rule out isolated to widely scattered storm coverage across our western and far southern zones but these storms should not be strong in intensity and should dissipate by late evening.

Our attention will be drawn to storm initiation late this afternoon into the evening hours across the Texas Hill Country where a complex of storms is forecast to develop. Convection will initiate along the leading edge of upper forcing that will be exiting Northern Mexico and will be aided by a nocturnal 50+kt low level jet that will become established across Central Texas overnight. While there continues to be some timing discrepancies between various high res progs and deterministic progs, the general consensus is that as this complex of storms moves towards our region during the predawn hours Sunday Morning, there should be a weakening trend to these storms and this seems plausible in that we will have a weaker low level jet across our region not to mention the complex will be entering our region during a diurnal minimum when it comes to instability. Remnant upper flow will be best described as "dirty" during the daytime hours on Sunday and thus, weaker upper forcing will be present but we will need to await daytime heating for the atmosphere to become increasingly unstable once again and it's these ingredients, combining with remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection that should result in an uptick in storm coverage and intensity across the western half of our region Sunday Afternoon into the Evening hours. Mid level lapse rates are kind of marginal for the development of large hail and Deep Layer Shear values may approach 40kts or so during this window and low level directional shear profiles do support at least a minor tornado threat near and north of the I-20 Corridor Sunday Afternoon and Evening in SPC's Day Two Marginal Risk threat area which runs near and west of a line from Lufkin Texas and Shreveport Louisiana to near Prescott Arkansas.

Convection coverage and intensity should begin to wane during the late evening hours on Sunday but especially as we get into the overnight and predawn hours Sunday Night/Monday Morning. Held onto mostly chance pops across our region as this southwest, dirty flow aloft is still present across our region but not expecting any strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday as that possibility will remain well west of our region where better forcing will exist, closer to the longwave trough itself.

Speaking of the longwave trough to our west, a piece of energy embedded in the trough will eject out into the Southern and Central Plains during the day Wed/Wed Night and there may be enough forcing along the southern flank of this departing shortwave to generate some in the way of strong to severe thunderstorm activity across our far northwest zones but this is far from certain as we continue to see progs struggling with any kind of consistency with these ejecting pieces of forcing. The longwave trough becomes reestablished by the end of the week across the Intermountain West and into the Great Basin and that will keep our region in southwest flow aloft through at least the end of the upcoming work week and into next weekend.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

For the 12/00Z TAFs, scattered showers linger on the western fringes of ArkLaTex airspace, expected to diminish into the evening. Likewise, lower VFR CIGs will lift early this evening, with scattered high clouds prevailing through much of the night before another round of early morning MVFR to IFR CIGs settles in between 12/10Z and 12/16Z. Areas of sustained rainfall will begin to arrive through the day tomorrow, impacting first our northern and western terminals. At these terminals, CIGs will not lift much through the day tomorrow. Elsewhere, OVC mid level decks can be expected. South winds will continue throughout, becoming elevated late in the forecast period to sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts of up to 25 kts possible and locally higher gusts in the vicinity of storms.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but strong to severe thunderstorms will potentially Sunday into Sunday Evening across Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 63 84 67 84 / 20 30 50 30 MLU 60 87 66 88 / 10 10 20 20 DEQ 60 79 62 79 / 20 70 70 50 TXK 65 84 68 83 / 20 50 70 50 ELD 61 85 64 83 / 20 20 50 40 TYR 66 80 67 83 / 20 70 60 30 GGG 64 81 66 83 / 20 50 60 30 LFK 64 82 67 83 / 20 50 40 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.