textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 107 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the first half of the week. Flooding may become a concern for areas along and south of the I-20 corridor of east Texas.

- A return to quieter and hotter conditions is expected late this week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Have elected to keep or slightly increase PoPs overnight across the ArkLaTex, as remnant rainfall slowly treks eastward across east Texas and south out of southern Arkansas. With limited steering, the possibility remains for such overnight rain to stall, leading to possible isolated flash flooding. The 00Z 3 km NAM and 02Z HRRR are hinting at a more organized complex developing along the Red River Valley on the Texas-Oklahoma state line late overnight towards daybreak, swinging south across our east Texas counties into the morning. Beyond that, solutions diverge, with the NAM being quieter and the HRRR more active.

Today's showers and storms will depend very much on what the surface boundary to our north does. Those recent runs of the HRRR suggest that the boundary will start to get moving again, eventually positioning itself in the neighborhood of the I-30 to I-20 corridors, containing the moisture for potential additional convection to the south. Thus, further impulses of moisture propagating across east Texas will keep largely along and south of the US-84 corridor, crossing Toledo Bend into west central Louisiana.

By Tuesday, the occasionally stationary surface boundary pretending to be a cold front will still be very much present over the ArkLaTex, and ensemble guidance is hinting it may inch just far enough to the north to open the door to more widespread convective activity, with defined waves sweeping from south to north if surface steering is pronounced enough. Through Tuesday, rainfall accumulations of 1-3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible, and the greatest accumulation expected across deep east Texas. Confidence in coverage and duration does not merit a Flood Watch as of this writing, but isolated flash flooding will remain possible throughout.

Among the challenges with this forecast is the unusual behavior of the synoptic scale features for this time of year. Recent solutions have been based on the positively tiled trough over the Appalachians and its attendant surface boundary as our primary forcing mechanism. The latest GFS illustrates this first trough closing around its low pressure center and retrograding west by midweek, potentially forming a new inverted trough over Texas, sustaining chances for additional rainfall through Wednesday afternoon. Beyond that, the low should retrograde further west, making way for mostly dry conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s early in the week will rebound into the middle 90s by Thursday and beyond. Overnight lows in the 70s will continue throughout.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

For the 13/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail to begin the TAF period but will be watching for some patchy low stratus developing closer to daybreak with MVFR cigs expected to eventually overspread most terminals. This will occur as convection is also expected to regenerate and expand once again as heating increases throughout the day and a frontal bndry continues to bisect our airspace. Therefore, have included VCSH/VCTS at all sites during the latter half of the TAF period and will likely need to prevail TSRA at some point in future TAF cycles as confidence in timing increases. Otherwise, look for cigs to gradually lift back to VFR toward midday, albeit low VFR in most cases with increasing convection. Light and variable winds this morning will generally prevail throughout the period with the bndry lingering as speeds average around 5 kts or less with higher gusts invof of convection.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 107 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested across the region, particularly for flooding concerns in deep east Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 87 72 89 72 / 70 20 50 10 MLU 91 73 91 73 / 50 20 40 10 DEQ 90 71 90 70 / 30 10 20 10 TXK 91 73 92 72 / 40 10 20 10 ELD 90 71 90 70 / 30 20 20 10 TYR 89 73 89 72 / 80 30 70 20 GGG 88 72 89 71 / 80 30 70 20 LFK 86 72 86 71 / 80 60 90 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.