textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 242 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- A round of severe thunderstorms is likely to develop by Saturday afternoon with damaging winds and large hail as the main impacts, especially along and south of I-20 (tornadoes cannot be ruled out).

- Heavy rain is most likely along and north of the I-30 corridor (30-40% chance of > 3+ inches in 24 hours).

- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the rest of this week, returning next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Synoptic trends are continuing as anticipated with troughing now entering the Baja California peninsula and trough ejection beginning across the southern Rocky Mountains into West Texas. This ejection will shift eastward overnight across Central Texas into the Ark-La-Tex, where southerly surface winds will coincide enough with southwesterly flow aloft to set the stage for enhanced updraft separation and SFC-3 km wind shear (30+ kts). Mid-level lapse rates will remain mostly below -8 C/km, while paltry CAPE values (<2000 J/kg) will inhibit more robust convection during the The low-instability, high-shear environment carrying these ingredients also carries the main convective threats of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. Short-range guidance suggests a convective mode favoring QLCS development, especially later on Saturday evening as storms proceed eastward into Louisiana. Stratiform rains will linger across the area overnight into Sunday morning as the severe thunderstorm threat winds down. Post-frontal conditions going into next week will remain dry with southerly surface winds maintaining above average temperatures. Some long- range guidance suggests temperature maximums reaching into the lower 80s by the middle of next week. /16/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

For the 14/00Z TAFs, lower VFR could decks will increase in coverage as OVC skies fill in through the evening, deteriorating to MVFR by daybreak. As with previous nights, some sites may see IFR CIGs and associated VSBY reductions near daybreak, with fog development possible at KLFK. Timing of rainfall arrival remains uncertain, with the earliest impacts beginning at KTXK after 14/12Z, spreading south and east through the day, as thunderstorms arrive in the latter portion of this forecast period. South southeast winds will continue at 5 kts through the night, which may hinder fog development, picking up to sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kts during the daytime hours, with gusts of up to 25 kts possible and locally higher gusts in the vicinity of storms.

/26/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Spotter activation may be needed on Saturday afternoon through Saturday night with the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 59 73 59 69 / 10 80 100 20 MLU 58 75 60 69 / 10 40 100 60 DEQ 54 67 52 66 / 50 100 100 20 TXK 59 72 58 69 / 30 90 100 30 ELD 53 72 56 67 / 20 70 100 50 TYR 60 71 55 68 / 20 100 90 10 GGG 58 72 55 68 / 20 90 100 10 LFK 58 73 56 68 / 10 80 90 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.