textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- Strong to severe early morning convection will be possible near and south of the I-20 Corridor of NE TX into N LA.

- There will be another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across our region on Sunday across much of the Four State Region that could continue possibly into the evening and overnight hours.

- The upcoming work week looks dry for now with a warming trend in the offering.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Complex weather pattern continues across the Four State Region with a narrow line of convection oriented west to east across NE TX and nearing the AR/LA line. This convection is oriented along a west to east moisture axis, best confined to theta-e ridging in the 850- 700mb layer. There is pretty good consensus in latest CAM output this morning with the greatest storm coverage across our southern half through mid to late morning before we see more widely scattered to scattered storm coverage through the remainder of the day. Am hesitant to drop pops completely behind this morning disturbance Today through this evening as the NBM is suggesting given the upper level pattern with an approaching filling upper trough from the west and WNW flow in the wake of this filling trough across the Upper and Middle Red River Valley. Will therefore continue to advertise small pops through late this evening until we begin to look upstream once again at our next complex of storms to impact our region late tonight and through the day Sunday.

This next disturbance will be embedded in increasing WSW flow aloft and should originate by late this afternoon somewhere across the Upper Rid River Valley of N-NW TX into SW OK before spreading south and east towards the Middle Red River Valley. While CAMS are pretty consistent on initiation, they begin to diverge on the evolution of a possible MCS moving south and east towards our region late tonight and therefore, it's impacts on our northwest zones early Sunday morning and more areawide impacts during the day Sunday across the remainder of our region. Did shave categorical pops on Sunday across our northern most zones given this uncertainty but did ride with likely pops across all but our far northern zones Sunday Night. Some of these storms could be strong to severe during the day Sunday and into Sunday Evening across our region with hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts the main threats.

The longwave upper trough finally kicks through our region late Sunday Night into early Monday. We should be under the influence of post-frontal conditions to start the upcoming work week on Monday as we begin to see the effects of the upper ridging trying to slowly inch eastward into our region from the Southern Plains and the TX Hill Country by midweek. This should be a dry flow with a slow but steady rise in temperatures throughout next week with the aid of upstream ridging aloft.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

For the 09/06Z TAFs, a line of showers and thunderstorms continues to advance southward along an east-west axis just north of the I-20 corridor. TSRA impacts are expected to begin at KTYR, KGGG, KSHV and KMLU within the hour, with associated wind gusts and VSBY reductions resulting from torrential rain. Large hail is also possible, particularly at our east Texas terminals. Storms will continue to advance south and gradually weaken towards daybreak, with CIGs tanking rapidly to IFR and LIFR levels, which will be slow to recover, only gradually returning to MVFR through the morning. Outside of gusts associated with storms, winds will remain light and variable throughout, at sustained speeds of no more than 5 kts.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible early this morning and again towards the predawn hours Sunday, through the day Sunday and even Sunday Night. Therefore, spotter activation may be required during this timeframe.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 84 66 86 64 / 30 20 60 70 MLU 83 64 86 64 / 50 20 40 60 DEQ 84 60 79 57 / 20 30 70 60 TXK 86 65 83 61 / 20 20 70 60 ELD 84 62 84 59 / 20 20 60 60 TYR 83 67 84 64 / 20 20 60 70 GGG 84 66 85 64 / 30 20 60 70 LFK 84 67 88 67 / 70 20 40 70

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.