textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Widespread showers and storms will return overnight tonight and continue through Sunday and Monday, resulting in areawide potential for flash flooding to develop from storm total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches by late Monday.

- Sunday will also see a developing risk for isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

- Scattered showers and storms will return Thursday and continue into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The ArkLaTex looks to remain dry through the remainder of today and this evening, while highs climb into the low to middle 90s areawide. Dew points are mixing out sufficiently that once again, heat indices should remain just below Advisory criteria, in the upper 90s to lower 100s, before temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 70s overnight.

Recent model runs have shown strong consistency pertaining to the arrival of tonight's first round of precip, still looking to arrive in our northwest after midnight, spreading south towards daybreak tomorrow. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible with this initial wave. The upper level pattern looks to shift through the next 26 hours from the ridging which has held in place the heat this past week to a pseudo-zonal regime. GFS and ECMWF diverge on how quickly the flow will then transition to northwesterly, most likely by late Sunday or early Monday, but the resulting effects on the ArkLaTex look similar between models. The ArkLaTex looks to see multiple rounds of heavy precip arriving from the north through Monday, potentially led by a more organized line of convection which may produce some isolated severe storms. Storm total rainfall accumulations have trended upwards, now indicating 2 to 4 inches across much of the region with locally higher values possible.

This areawide soaking will start to recede from the northwest by early Tuesday, clearing the majority of the area by the end of the day. However, some guidance hints that the underlying moisture axis will remain draped across the southern half of the Four State Region, or near enough to the south to kick up scattered showers and storms south and east. Either way, the region looks to barely have had a chance to dry out before the next rainmaker arrives. A deepening upper level trough may manage to form a closed low over southern Texas by late in the week, and this cutoff low looks to ride north and east along the Gulf Coast into the ArkLaTex by the end of the week. Ahead of the low, widespread thunder chances will increase through the day Thursday and continue through to the end of this forecast period.

/26/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Sites have returned to VFR at the top of this TAF period and remain there through the evening. Winds will stay southerly through late morning Sunday when a line of showers will begin to move through the region, shifting winds to be more westerly. Low ceilings will build in from Deep East TX after midnight tonight that will impact at least those sites and maybe KSHV and KTXK depending on how far it spreads and the timing of the showers. Showers could begin at KTXK as soon as 14/10z and spread to impact more southern sites in the hours following. Conditions could temporarily worsen during heavier showers with some thunder also possible through the end of the TAF period. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight into Sunday. /26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 77 92 72 79 / 0 50 90 90 MLU 77 94 73 81 / 0 50 90 100 DEQ 74 84 67 80 / 40 70 80 40 TXK 78 89 69 80 / 10 60 90 60 ELD 76 89 68 79 / 0 50 90 80 TYR 78 94 72 81 / 0 50 90 80 GGG 76 93 72 81 / 0 50 90 90 LFK 76 93 74 83 / 10 50 80 100

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.