textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Continued rainfall is likely through the day Monday and Tuesday, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor. As confidence increases, a Flood Watch may become necessary.

- Most areas could see a break in rain on Wednesday and Thursday and warm back up into the 90s during the afternoons.

- Widespread rain could return to the forecast late this week depending on the movements of a disturbance in the Gulf.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The MCS that we've been tracking has moved into the region this morning and become less organized. At the time of writing, some light showers remain along the cold front that initially was the focus for the MCS. The heavier showers are further south along I-20 along the main outflow boundary from this morning's activity. There are also other pop-up showers developing to over most of the southern half of the region, which will likely interact with the outflow boundary and the secondary line of showers through the afternoon hours. While the activity is expected to remain subsevere, there may be some brief severe hazards with cell mergers. There is a greater focus on the potential for localized flooding, especially in poor drainage and urban areas. This rain has also kept temperatures lower than previously forecasted, so I've made some adjustments to today's highs.

Rain is increasingly likely to remain in the forecast for the next several days. The front that was the original driver of the MCS will continue to push southward through this afternoon and stall overnight. This stationary front could act as a lifting mechanism for redevelopment tomorrow. QPF estimations over the past several days have been somewhat inconsistent on the location of showers, but the most recent guidance is favoring areas along and south of I-20 for additional rainfall on Monday and Tuesday. Recent dry soils and general low water in surrounding waterways should be able to handle today's rain, but there is some concern about the repeated rainfall over the following days. A Flood Watch may be necessary within the next several forecast packages if models continue to agree.

Longer-range models have an upper-level low from southern TX moving northeast toward the Ark-La-Miss on Wednesday, which could keep rain chances in the forecast for our south and eastern zones even as the stationary front is able to move. Much of the region is expected to warm up a bit during the brief break in rain, likely climbing back into the 90s Thursday afternoon. Temperatures could get knocked back into the 80s Friday with more widespread rain associated with a shortwave trough. There could also be interactions with the disturbance in the Gulf, but conditions that far out are still very uncertain.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

For the 15/00Z TAF period, an increasingly active period of aviation weather impacts will characterize the next 24 hours as convection ramps up in addition to lower cigs/vsbys as well. To begin the TAF period, most sites are free of convection except for KTYR and KLFK where lingering afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue into this evening aross parts of East TX. This activity is expected to generally diminish in coverage through mid to late evening before redeveloping and expanding in coverage and intensity throughout the day on Monday. In addition, MVFR/IFR cigs will overspread all sites from the predawn hours on Monday through daybreak with some patchy fog reducing vsbys as well. These impacts will only worsen with convection as showers and storms expand across our airspace through late morning into the afternoon. Light and variable winds this evening will increase slightly from the N/NE with fropa, and expect higher speeds/gusts invof convection throughout the period.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Spotter activation may be needed along and south of I-20 this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 73 81 71 85 / 80 90 60 50 MLU 73 81 70 85 / 80 90 70 60 DEQ 68 81 65 86 / 60 50 10 0 TXK 71 82 68 88 / 60 50 20 20 ELD 69 80 66 86 / 60 80 30 30 TYR 72 82 70 87 / 80 90 30 30 GGG 73 82 70 86 / 80 90 50 40 LFK 74 82 72 85 / 80 90 70 80

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.