textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- There will be a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across the region on Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight hours.

- The upcoming work week looks dry for now with a warming trend in the offering.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1103 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Upper-level trough axis moving across the ArkLaTex this morning will maintain mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain chances this afternoon across mainly North Louisiana and Deep East Texas where a diffuse frontal boundary remains nearly stalled. Some strong storms may be possible capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. With ample low-level moisture in place from previous rainfall, could see morning fog across portions of the region near daybreak.

A shortwave trough will dive southeast from the Central Plains on Sunday driving a surface front with it into the ArkLaTex. Surface dewpoints in the lower 70s combined with lowering heights aloft will allow for sufficient instability to generate thunderstorms during the afternoon when temperatures climb into the mid 80s in the warm sector ahead of the front. Storms to translate Southeast in the form of a convective complex from near the I-30 corridor near midday, reaching the lakes region of Deep East Texas near sunset. Additionally, an already established convective complex will shift east out of Central Texas providing another round of convection across mainly east and northeast Texas from mid- evening into the overnight hours on Sunday. Uncertainty in timing and location of these types of mesoscale complexes are inherent in this type of setup. At this time, the ArkLaTex is under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday from either of these two convective complexes with mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat along with an isolated tornado threat. Additionally, heavy rainfall will be possible with some storms.

Conditions are forecast to improve on Monday as upper-level northwest flow builds ahead of an approaching upper-level ridge that will become established across the region by Thursday. Mostly clear skies are expected through the workweek with a gradual warming trend as highs on Friday are expected to range from lows in the mid to upper 60s and highs near 90. /05/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Cigs remain slow to lift early this afternoon, with IFR/MVFR cigs expected to linger through at least mid-afternoon before returning to VFR. The exception may be along the TX/LA border including SHV, as a residual bndry from the early morning convection and associated moisture pooling along this bndry will delay cigs from lifting too quickly. Scattered -SHRA have redeveloped over portions of N LA early this afternoon as well ahead of a weak upper level disturbance over E TX, with the convection possibly affecting MLU through late afternoon before diminishing. Have tempoed in SHRA here with low MVFR cigs and reduced vsbys, with the remaining terminals expected to remain dry this afternoon/much of tonight. The cu/stratocu field should eventually scatter out around 00Z, although low MVFR/IFR cigs should again redevelop over N LA/Srn AR/extreme Ern TX, and possibly spread NW by daybreak. However, it's possible that scattered convection may shift SE and affect extreme NE TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR just before daybreak Sunday, which may disrupt the low cig advection this far NW. However, low confidence precludes mention of VCTS for TXK attm, as this convection should quickly diminish as it moves deeper into the region. These cigs may lower into areas of FG by or shortly before daybreak over portions of N LA, with the low cigs expected to slowly lift/return to MVFR by the end of the TAF period. Should see an increase in additional convection as it spreads NW to SE across the region Sunday afternoon/night. Lt/Vrb winds will persist this afternoon and tonight, but may take on more of a SE component over E TX late. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through the day Sunday and even Sunday Night. Therefore, spotter activation may be required during this timeframe.

05

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 66 85 64 78 / 10 60 70 20 MLU 64 86 64 78 / 10 30 70 20 DEQ 61 80 58 77 / 30 70 50 10 TXK 65 84 61 77 / 20 70 70 10 ELD 62 84 60 76 / 10 60 60 20 TYR 67 84 64 77 / 10 70 70 20 GGG 66 85 64 77 / 10 70 70 20 LFK 68 88 67 79 / 20 30 70 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.