textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- The oppressive heat wave will continue through the entire forecast period, with daytime temperatures reaching/exceeding the century mark each day, with limited relief during the overnight hours.

- While isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be possible generally along/north of I-20 Thursday near and ahead of a weak surface front that will drift south into Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas, mostly dry conditions will continue through the period. - An increased fire weather threat will continue through the foreseeable future given the low afternoon RH's and very dry fuels in place.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The early morning sfc analysis indicated a weak sfc trough that extends from Wrn and Srn AR into extreme NE LA, where isolated convection did manage to develop late Tuesday afternoon/evening, and recently diminished in the last couple of hours. Meanwhile, stubborn upper ridging remains anchored from the Desert SW/Four Corners Region into the Lower MS Valley, but will begin to amplify by Thursday before gradually beginning to expand back E into the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley this weekend. Despite the strongest subsidence near the ridge center remaining W of the region, very warm 4" soil temps of 88 degrees as of 1230 am this morning will not allow for much sfc cooling overnight, resulting in a head start to daytime heating with afternoon temps today again reaching/exceeding the century mark areawide. Max heat indices Tuesday afternoon ranged from 105-110 degrees across most areas, with a few locales briefly exceeding 110 degrees over McCurtain County OK and portions of N LA, with similar temps/extent of mixing expected again yielding comparable heat indices areawide. The aforementioned weak sfc trough over Wrn and Srn AR is progged to begin lifting back N later this morning before washing out, with no sfc trigger present to warrant the need for any isolated afternoon pops. However, the short term progs continue to hint at a weak upper trough that will traverse the Midwest into the Mid MS Valley Thursday, which should help another weak sfc trough to be reinforced S into Ern OK/Wrn AR by afternoon, and may focus the potential for isolated afternoon/evening convection over SE OK/SW AR, which may drift as far S as the I-20 corridor before diminishing.

Will have to wait and see as to the progress of this weak sfc trough, and whether or not compressional heating can extend farther S into extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, and may necessitate the need of an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning. However, confidence is high enough though that the Heat Advisory will be needed areawide Thursday, and thus have extended it through 01Z Friday. Confidence remains low though as to the bndry position over the region Friday, and whether or not it will be enough and whether weak NW flow aloft will be sufficient enough to initiate isolated convection over portions of E TX/N LA. For now, will keep a dry forecast going and add pops once the progs are in better agreement and the various CAMs are available. There are some indications though that slightly drier air mixing S may result in lower min RH's, even in the presence of triple digit heat. This may result in slightly lower heat indices mainly over portions of SE OK/SW AR, but still dangerous within the triple digit temps.

The various medium range progs suggest that the amplified upper ridging will begin building back E into the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley for the latter half of the upcoming weekend, thus maintaining the triple digit temps and oppressive heat and dry conditions over the region through the remainder of the extended period. An increased fire weather threat will also persist over the entire forecast period as well, given the very dry/loaded fuels that have since dried in wake of the June/early July rains, as well as the low afternoon RH's.

15

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For the 19/00z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing some very isolated convection across portions of south and central Arkansas as well as in central Louisiana. At this time I don't think any of this activity will impact any of our terminals so I have left any mention out at this time and just maintained BKN250. VFR conditions will prevail throughout this period and winds will generally be below 10kts. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 81 103 80 102 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 79 101 78 100 / 0 10 0 10 DEQ 75 103 72 102 / 0 10 10 0 TXK 80 102 77 100 / 0 10 10 0 ELD 78 101 75 100 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 79 103 80 102 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 79 104 79 103 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 76 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for Arz070-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for Laz001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for Okays.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for Txz096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.