textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- A strong cold front is approaching the region, that will bring the potential of severe weather for much of the area over the next 24-36 hours.

- Additional rain chances are possible this weekend, but there remains some uncertainty in exact timing and location.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

All eyes remain focused on the approaching cold front, currently sitting along a line from south central Oklahoma to far northwest Arkansas, that will impact our area this evening. While we have not seen too much movement in it today, it is expected to start diving southward and into our area by this evening and will make for an interesting 24-36 hours across our region. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop around 06/00z for portions of far northeast Texas, southwest Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma, where SPC has painted a Slight Risk for severe storms. Large hail and isolated tornadoes will be the greater threat today, but there is also a damaging wind threat as well. Short range models are hit and miss with how much convection spawns from this evening through Wednesday morning, with some of them showing more coverage and intensity than others. This will be somewhat of a conditional threat as there is some capping in place that could inhibit development, which could be the reason the models are indifferent. While most models indicate a break in weather across our area during the overnight hours, a few of them continue to hang onto convection through the overnight and into Wednesday morning.

Most models show a lull in strong thunderstorm activity Wednesday morning after sunrise, although a few show some lingering light rain possible. This will change quickly as we move into the early afternoon hours as the front continues its southward progression. Thunderstorms look to develop ahead of the front in the warm sector just after noon on Wednesday and will continue through the afternoon and evening, with some models holding onto thunderstorms into the early overnight hours as well. Storm mode initially looks to be isolated, which could allow for the development of discrete cells capable of producing large hail and tornadoes. Should storms congeal together through the day, the wind threat would then increase. Development will depend greatly on the location of the front. Right now it appears to be for all areas south of the I-30 corridor where SPC has a Slight Risk. Just to the east of our area along the I-20 corridor east of Monroe, SPC introduced an Enhanced Risk this afternoon, and there is no guarantee that this won't be extended west into our area.

One thing that is certain, Thursday will be pleasant across the region as highs will struggle to make it into the lower 70s in the wake of the cold front. Unfortunately this will not last long, as temperatures begin to warm again on Friday and will return to the 80s on Saturday. There is some potential for some widespread showers and thunderstorms again this weekend, models are in pretty good disagreement about timing and placement though, so this will need to be refined as we move through the week. /33/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 820 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

For the 06/00z TAF period...VFR conditions with high clouds across the airspace this evening. Eventually, low cigs will return areawide overnight, along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the period, as a front moves into the area. We could see some convection as early as midnight near KTXK. Some storms could be severe during the period, with large hail being the greatest threat. Expect winds to become northerly in wake of the front during the period. /20/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening across our northern zones, generally along and north of I-30. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 71 80 58 71 / 10 80 60 30 MLU 71 83 59 73 / 10 90 90 30 DEQ 57 70 51 72 / 50 60 20 10 TXK 64 73 55 72 / 50 80 30 20 ELD 64 74 52 70 / 30 90 60 20 TYR 66 77 57 71 / 20 70 30 20 GGG 68 78 57 71 / 20 80 40 30 LFK 71 84 62 73 / 0 80 50 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.