textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Another afternoon of much above normal temperatures this afternoon will give way to slightly cooler conditions tonight and Wednesday with the passage of a weak cold front.

- Isolated to scattered showers remain possible tonight through Wednesday morning along and south of the front, but rainfall amounts will be light.

- Temperatures will begin a moderating trend Thursday and continue into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Low level moisture continues to deepen across the region as of midday, with the early afternoon visible satellite imagery depicting extensive stratocu cigs beneath the breaks in the cirrus cigs ahead of a cold front extending from NE and Cntrl/Srn OK into portions of extreme Nrn TX and entering the Big Country and Permian Basin of WCntrl/W TX. Some pockets of AC cigs have been noted as well in the latest sfc obs, with some of this moisture showing up as light returns on radar, although nothing has yet reached the ground per the sfc obs. However, the moisture lyr will continue to deepen through the day with the approach of the front, with increasing mid level ascent ahead of the ejecting opening low over Nrn Old MX that will open up into more of a progressive shortwave trough as it traverses the Big Bend region by early evening.

The NBM remains much too bullish with pops with the various short term/hi-res progs suggesting very little if any QPF along/ahead of the frontal zone as any ascent will remain elevated as this shortwave moves through the region overnight through daybreak Wednesday. Thus, have scaled back pops to chance over extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, before any -SHRA potential diminishes from W to E Wednesday morning. It's interesting to note that the attendant cold front still remains progged to move into the NW zones of extreme SE OK/NE TX by early evening, and slowly progress SE overnight, with a second component of the front wrapping around the Ouachitas and drifting S to near the AR/LA border by daybreak Wednesday. However, this portion of the front now is suggested that it will not overtake the leading edge of the front until mid or late morning before exiting the area to the S by midday/early afternoon. This is important as the lead front will begin to usher in a deeper wedge of drier low level air ahead of this "second" front characteristic of a Nrly wind shift, which should help to taper/end any -SHRA development faster with the departure of the trough. Total QPF will remain light though, below a tenth of an inch through midday Wednesday.

Slightly cooler air will ooze S in wake of the front late tonight/Wednesday, although the NBM remains much warmer than much of the operational and MOS guidance, and even the warmer GFS. This post-frontal air mass will remain shallow though especially as the H850 front hangs up along the Middle Red River Valley into Srn AR, with the potential for additional cigs developing along this residual trough axis through the day. Even though the sfc front settles into S LA by Wednesday evening, it will quickly wash out after daybreak Thursday as a Srly low level flow becomes re-established. This will yield a moderating trend in temps by Thursday afternoon, although the more humid air will wait one more day until Friday before returning to the region. Dry conditions will continue until at least Friday morning although the GFS suggests that a pseudo-warm front may develop over SE OK into SW AR and focus isolated to scattered -SHRA over these areas through the day, with the NAM farther S into NE TX/N LA. Thus, the NBM does bump up pops along this potential bndry Friday even as weak ridging aloft builds over the area before the flow transitions to SW Friday night ahead of the closed low that will begin to eject E across the Desert SW Friday afternoon/evening and eventually into the Srn Plains Saturday.

The ensembles have trended a touch slower with this weekend system, but still continues to suggest that convection will deepen/become widespread during the afternoon and evening Saturday, although timing amongst the ensembles varies but still very much could affect the various Mardi Gras activities. There is a little better agreement though with the position/more Swd track of the upper and attendant sfc low, although widespread cloud cover will limit the extent of insolation through the day. This will lead to more of a low CAPE/high shear environment with at least a low end severe threat still possible over portions of the area. Widespread beneficial rains of at least 1-2+ inches will also result with this next system, before cooler and drier conditions return in its wake to finish out the weekend into the new work week.

15

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A cold front will move across the region overnight. Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts this afternoon will diminish overnight and become northerly up to 10 knots on Wednesday behind the front. Lingering MVFR ceilings to lift to VFR later today. Could see a return of MVFR ceilings across LFK after daybreak. Otherwise, VCSH conditions expected across most sites from 11/06Z to 11/12Z with the passage of the front. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1227 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Friday. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 77 59 73 50 / 10 30 20 0 MLU 76 60 71 47 / 10 30 20 0 DEQ 75 48 68 38 / 20 50 10 0 TXK 78 55 69 44 / 10 50 10 0 ELD 74 53 66 42 / 10 40 20 0 TYR 77 53 71 50 / 10 30 10 0 GGG 77 56 73 49 / 10 30 10 0 LFK 77 59 77 53 / 10 30 20 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.