textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

- Showers and storms are expected to return from the north around daybreak, continuing southward through the daytime hours.

- The weekend looks to get off to a dry start with warmer temperatures returning.

- Next week looks to be more unsettled, with daily rainfall chances and more mild temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Guidance has struggled lately, and continues to show uncertainty regarding the showers and storms expected overnight into the day Friday. With considerable discrepancies between different models and even between one run and the next hour's, what is known at this point is that showers and storms are expected to move into the ArkLaTex from the north near daybreak, continuing south into the morning hours. The degree to which these storms get organized depends on your model of choice, but we are not ruling out the possibility of some becoming strong to severe. Depending on forward speed, training heavy rains may lead to flash flooding concerns. These hazards look to be more likely for northern zones of the region.

Meanwhile, areas of patchy fog will continue to be a possibility overnight, while temperatures drop into the upper 60s and lower 70s. The system of showers and storms looks poised to exit the region by sundown Friday evening at the latest. Rainfall and associated cloud cover through the day is expected to moderate high temperatures slightly, ranging from the upper 80s north to middle 90s south.

After Friday's rainfall comes to an end, the weekend looks to get off to a dry and quiet start, as upper level ridging pushes eastward out of Texas, hindering noteworthy rainfall chances and allowing high temperatures in the low to mid 90s to maintain their hold on the Four State Region. Weak disturbances in the upper level flow look to kick up scattered chances for showers and storms north and west late in the weekend, becoming more widespread into early next week as a developing upper level trough and associated closed low deepens and pushes southeastward over the Plains. As the pattern remains unsettled, daily rainfall chances will continue to close out this long term forecast period, with highs dropping from the 90s to 80s, and lows in the 60s and 70s throughout.

/26/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 933 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the 19/00z TAF period...Isolated convection has almost diminished across the region. VFR conditions have returned areawide, but models have some additional convection developing overnight towards daybreak. This could give some brief reduced flight conditions at KTXK/KTYR, and possibly KGGG/KSHV. This convection should diminish by mid morning, but more convection is expected during the afternoon hours at most of the TAF sites. /20/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Spotter activation is could be needed this late afternoon and evening. Activity may continue to some extent overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 70 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 20 MLU 69 96 71 95 / 10 0 0 10 DEQ 65 90 66 89 / 0 10 10 30 TXK 69 95 71 94 / 0 0 0 20 ELD 65 94 68 93 / 10 0 0 20 TYR 68 92 69 90 / 0 0 0 30 GGG 67 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 20 LFK 68 94 69 92 / 0 0 0 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.