textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Near normal daytime temperatures will continue through Thursday, although widespread wetting rains will increase across the region late Tuesday night through much of Wednesday.

- Confidence continues to increase for a strong arctic air intrusion into the region Friday, as areas of overrunning increase resulting in a potentially significant winter storm by late Friday through Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

The late evening sfc analysis indicates the leading edge of sfc ridging drifting S into Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, as evident by the wind shift to the NNE in the 05-06Z obs. This wind shift will have little sensible impact on temps, although drier sfc dewpoints will continue to advect slowly S into portions of Srn AR/N LA/extreme NE TX overnight through Tuesday morning. This sfc ridge remains progged to shift ESE into the TN Valley and Gulf Coast states Tuesday afternoon, with bndry lyr winds veering back around to the ESE later in the day. This will end the dry advection regime, but will also result in a slow uptick in dewpoints during the afternoon. Meanwhile, a SWrly low level flow will develop Tuesday afternoon, with low level moisture advection expected to increase during the afternoon and evening hours. Near to slightly above normal temps will return Tuesday afternoon as the cirrus cigs continue to gradually thin and shift S into Deep E and SE TX into Cntrl LA, along the base of the broad longwave trough that will remain over the Cntrl and Ern CONUS. The short term progs continue to depict a weak shortwave developing along the base of the trough across the Srn Rockies late Tuesday afternoon, traversing E across the Srn Plains into the Lower MS Valley late Tuesday night and Wednesday. As this weakness approaches, a 40-45kt SWrly LLJ will develop over Cntrl and E TX Tuesday night, which will result in increased isentropic forcing that will induce scattered -SHRA development after 06Z Wednesday over the Wrn half of the area. Have increased pops to high chance late over the Wrn sections of E TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR, before deeper large scale forcing increases after 12Z Wednesday in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Thus, convection development will become more widespread across the region after daybreak Wednesday, with 6.0-6.5 C/km elevated lapse rates potentially contributing to embedded isolated thunder development over portions of Deep E TX/WCntrl LA. Did increase pops to high-end categorical generally SE of the I-30 corridor Wednesday, with rainfall amounts generally ranging from a quarter to half inch, with isolated higher amounts up to an inch possible across portions of Deep E TX and Cntrl LA.

This convection should gradually diminish from W to E Wednesday afternoon and evening, although the potential for continued isentropic forcing may continue in the SWrly low level flow over portions of Lower E TX/N LA/Srn AR Wednesday night and at least the first half of Thursday. Near to slightly above normal temps should persist through Thursday/Thursday night, as a mainly zonal flow aloft persists beneath the Cntrl CONUS trough.

The medium range progs continue to suggest arctic sfc ridging that will begin to build S into NE TX/SE OK/SW AR Friday afternoon, before shifting S across the remainder of the region Friday night. The GFS remains the most aggressive solution with the arctic intrusion, and probably a bit too fast given the shallow nature of this air mass, although confidence continues to increase that subfreezing temps will eventually build S through the remainder of the area by Saturday. Meanwhile, elevated Pacific moisture will begin to increase Friday along the Srn branch of the jet, ahead of a closed upper low that may begin to open up over Srn CA/Nrn Baja and the Desert SW and become absorbed in the flow regime this weekend. PVA and weak isentropic forcing may result in scattered -SHRA development through the day Friday as the colder air begins to build S, with the potential for increased overrunning N of a frontal zone that will become enhanced along the TX and LA coasts. Thus, warmer air atop the arctic air dome should result in increased areas of FZRA/IP across much of the region Friday night, persisting through much of the day Saturday. Farther N in the deeper colder air, significant snowfall accumulations may occur, with the precip types slowly transitioning by late Saturday as the colder air deepens. While its too early to discuss potential icing/snow amounts, accumulations may be significant, with an extended duration of subfreezing temps possible through much of the weekend, pending the extent of any snow or icepack that develops. It is interesting to note that the all ensemble members of the GEFS suggest a wintry mix transition, but remains most aggressive with snow and ice accumulations due to the much colder and faster arrival of the subfreezing temps than the ECMWF and CMC. All interests should continue to pay close attention to forecast changes of this potentially significant winter storm to affect the region this weekend. /15/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

For the 20/12z TAF update...high VFR ceilings to persist through much of the day, decreasing from 25kft to 5kft overnight. Could see MFR ceilings across east Texas terminals by 21/10Z with -ra conditions increasing in coverage across these terminals as well as SHV/TXK near daybreak. Southeast winds to increase to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and possibly remaining elevated across east Texas overnight. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through at least Thursday. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 59 45 57 48 / 0 30 100 50 MLU 55 39 55 48 / 0 10 100 80 DEQ 53 37 54 37 / 0 50 70 20 TXK 54 41 54 42 / 0 40 100 30 ELD 54 36 51 42 / 0 20 100 50 TYR 62 48 59 47 / 0 50 90 20 GGG 60 46 58 46 / 0 40 100 30 LFK 65 49 63 52 / 0 30 100 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.