textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 105 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Below normal temperatures will prevail through early this week with another reinforcing cold front expected to arrive Monday. - Improving rain chances will return by the middle of this week as temperatures moderate back closer to seasonal averages in southerly return flow.

- There are increasingly strong signals of a significant Arctic air mass arriving in our region by next weekend with unusually striking consensus among the major deterministic models for a potentially impactful winter weather event.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A strong high pressure ridge at the sfc will continue to dominate the regional weather pattern through tonight with another night of subfreezing temperatures, albeit not quite as cold as last night. Calm winds and clear skies will yield very efficient radiational cooling after sunset with temperatures falling off rapidly into the 20s to near 30 degrees by around midnight through daybreak on Monday. This air mass will be further reinforcing by another dry cold front expected to advance across the region through Monday with temperatures expected to remain fairly consistent on Tuesday and Tuesday night, still below average by mid-January standards.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the advancing high pressure sfc ridge will shift east of the region with southerly flow returning areawide. Increasing warm air and moisture advection will occur in advance of a shortwave lifting NE from Northern Mexico. Isentropic forcing overnight Tuesday night may induce some light showers over East Texas and Southeast Oklahoma prior to daybreak on Wednesday, becoming more widespread through the day on Wednesday. Weak upper forcing and a lack of instability should limit any thunderstorms, and expect showers to gradually wrap up from west to east late on Wednesday night into Thursday morning behind a weak cold frontal passage. A brief dry period will resume on Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday with seasonably mild temperatures.

Beyond Friday, the forecast becomes increasingly complex and dare I say problematic if the remarkable consistency among medium range deterministic guidance is anywhere close to coming to fruition. To begin, it is worthy noting that forecast guidance is consistent in suggesting that a ~1050 mb Arctic high will surge southward from the western Canadian provinces into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest by Friday into Saturday. Concurrently, a suddenly active SW flow regime pattern will emerge and lift Pacific moisture across the Desert SW/Northern Mexico into the Southern Plains and Lower/Mid MS Valley by Friday night and throughout next weekend. Coinciding with the southward advancing Arctic air mass, a potentially strong and increasingly impactful overrunning scenario could unfold over much of the Southern U.S. next weekend.

As we continue to digest additional model data and various ensemble guidance over the next several days, be advised that the medium to long-range forecast covering out through next weekend will remain in flux given the many variables in play with this very complex forecast. For now, have not begun to advertise much in the way of wintry precipitation but understand that consistency this far out in the forecast certainly has garnered attention with respect to a potentially significant winter weather event next weekend. Further details will follow as we refine the forecast through this upcoming week.

/19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

For the 18/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide for the course of this forecast period, with SKC throughout. Winds are currently becoming westerly and will continue pivoting to southwesterly through the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight then adopting a northerly and northeasterly orientation by the end of this forecast period at peak sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts of up to 15 kts possible.

/26/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 105 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through early this week.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 29 56 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 28 53 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 22 47 20 50 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 27 49 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 23 49 23 51 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 30 55 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 27 56 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 28 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.