textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- A good push of thunderstorms will be arriving in the predawn hours across SE OK, spreading into NE TX, SW AR and NW LA.

- A cool front will be following another round of thunderstorms overnight and early Tuesday but our southerly winds will hold.

- Thunderstorms linger across our northern sections into midweek,but over

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Warm overnight with a little wind from the SE at 5 to 10 mph with slightly less east of I-49. Lows will be in the mid to upper 70s as our dew points keep in the mid 70s in most locales. We should see enough wind and T/Td spread to preclude any fog except for maybe our far east. The warm low level S/SW winds will be feeding all night into a mesoscale complex system of thunderstorms now moving across central OK. The models all show this MCS feature arriving right around daybreak, which is just after 6 am. It is moving at 30 mph to the SE now with severe gusts and will keep forward speed overnight, spreading across I-30 and 1-20 by early to mid morning. The SPC has a little Slight Risk right in between our I-30 and I-20 corridors from near Dallas to Texarkana and Little Rock. This will be our next best chance for rainfall as this cool front will be lifting the threat back northward for Tuesday and Wednesday. The WPC agrees with their ERO for Monday Slight Risk along and north of I-20. So more good news for our main drought areas once more, before things slowly lift north and we dry out. This MCS will send out a very good outflow boundary, so while storms may decay as this system gusts out, the timing will help develop some lagniappe showers and thunderstorms deeper down into more of our TX counties and LA parishes by late morning and early afternoon.

Generally, the commencement of heating interrupts the low level inflow, so the early MCS heavy weather will be diminishing by mid morning. The winds will continue SE with or without the rainfall, helping to mix the air well. So while we will warm up as the MCS decays and gusts out, the heat index should keep in check with all the mixing winds early. As mentioned, if the outflow is able to plug into heating early, some of the showers and remaining isolated thunderstorms will fortify the system late morning into the early afternoon spreading down I-49. So this push will keep the sea breeze well to our south.

The pattern repeats as light NW flow aloft will reload for another push overnight early on Tuesday. The weak cool front will backdoor across much of Arkansas and set up a train track for this next push to run along from Oklahoma City to just south of Little Rock, but it looks like our southerly flow will hold position on the front advancing. So overall less rain for more of us. And then one final time, the light NW flow will load a third nocturnal push over Tuesday into Wednesday. The models show the frontal boundary will start to lift back northward a quicker pace and round 3 will likely be affecting even less of our Four-State area. So most of the activity after this morning will be shifting a little farther northward with each event.

Meanwhile, the upper ridging will be building over the SW U.S. into the Four Corners and keep the rain train nearby, but just out of reach after early Wednesday. The upper ridge will build to 594dam overnight and into Thursday and begin to bring sinking air with little to no rain our way until the ridge moves eastward into the MS River Valley, allowing the sea breeze push to resume perhaps by next weekend along with weak easterly waves moving along the Gulf coast. And so with less rain clouds, more late June sunshine will boost the mercury for us through the low to mid 90s and end up in the upper 90s and pushing triple digits for a few spots. Of course, the building heat will still be accompanied by the good green up and a week's worth of southerly winds, bringing in the muggy air continuously to the point of more heat concerns. Hopefully just advisories and not excessive heat warnings by late month. The cold front activity will remain on hold into July for now as we slowly dry out more and more each day. The CPC 8 to 14 day outlook issued yesterday shows above average temperatures and below average rainfall through the Nation's big 250th Birthday celebration. /24/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Low MVFR cigs have begun to develop early this morning across much of E TX, and will expand farther NE into N LA/SW AR through the overnight hours, likely prior to 09Z, and persist through much of the morning hours. An MCS now moving through NW OK attm will quickly sweep SE through much of OK and enter the region after 10Z, reaching the TXK terminal around 11Z, and the TYR/GGG/SHV/ELD/MLU terminals between 13-17Z before diminishing. However, gusty winds of 30- 40+kts, reduced vsbys, and brief IFR cigs will be possible in and near the convection, before rapid improvement is observed as any remaining MVFR cigs are scoured, with low AC/cirrus cigs remaining in wake of the convection. Should see a scattered cu field redevelop though by early to mid-afternoon, before mostly diminishing around/shortly after sunset. Depending on where any sfc bndrys are leftover from the morning MCS, additional scattered convection may redevelop either late this afternoon or during the evening over portions of extreme NE TX/SW AR/N LA, but confidence remains too low to add VCSH/VCTS mention to the affected terminals attm. Should eventually see the redevelopment of IFR/low MVFR cigs to Lower E TX/N LA S of I-20 prior to daybreak Tuesday, just after this end of this TAF period. S winds 6-11kts overnight will eventually become SSW in wake of the morning convection, with higher gusts in/near the convection. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Spotter activation may be needed prior to daybreak today across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas for the approaching complex of strong thunderstorms. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 91 76 92 77 / 40 20 20 10 MLU 92 75 92 76 / 30 40 20 20 DEQ 88 72 87 72 / 80 60 60 20 TXK 91 74 91 75 / 80 50 40 20 ELD 89 73 89 73 / 60 50 40 20 TYR 91 77 93 77 / 50 20 20 0 GGG 92 76 93 77 / 40 20 20 0 LFK 94 76 95 76 / 10 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.