textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Moisture lifting over TX and will ease across our I-49 in the remaining warm afternoon as S/SW winds warm our dew points. - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible for our Tuesday as a weak upper disturbance lifts over the ridge axis.

- The big shift in temperatures is still on course for Friday and a beautiful fall weekend with 70s for a day or two and lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s by Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Moisture is building back over Texas with the Cu field W of I-49 from near Alexandria to near Shreveport and Mount Pleasant and Clarksville, moving to the N/NE. 2 pm air temps are in the mid to upper 80s under the scattered to broken deck with lots of sunshine and lower 90s over S Arkansas and NE Louisiana. Our dew points are creeping up too with the 70 degree contour now at Mineola, Jacksonville and Center. And yet still dry lower 50s from Magnolia down to Ruston to Vadalia. Our sounding at noon showed the upper trend of PWATs back over an inch at 1.26". The array of short term models maintain some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by this time on Tuesday or earlier with high chance PoPs over deep east TX and slight wording up to Tyler and Longview and Shreveport to near El Dorado, Monroe and Jena by later in the afternoon.

Coverage will be widespread with QPF amounts on the order of a tenth of an inch or less for most, and a few higher near a quarter inch possible as this enhanced sea breeze arrives. The SPC day 2 has a General Risk for lightning and gusty wind to around 40 mph or so. This is a weak upper disturbance lifting around the newly developed upper ridge over the TX Coastal Bend. We are S/SW up to near 20fkt and a little more brisk W to NW flow aloft. The sea breeze push will fall short of our area today, but isolated activity is currently in the Houston metro area, also lifting NE at 10 mph. Sunset will bring an end much of this push, but reload with even more moisture for Tuesday. So our coverage should be peaking by late afternoon and then once again fall apart with sundown tomorrow evening.

After this weak disturbance lifts overhead Wednesday and Thursday we will be dry for most as the upper ridge rebuilds to 594dam from Alexandria to Jackson, but our I-30 corridor will do fairly well ahead of our big cold front with a lingering chance for rainfall. Frontal timing is back to early on Friday and as mentioned yesterday, the long wave will lift a closed core upper low off the front range and leave the base of the long wave to close off into a weaker and broader upper low. This low will eventually come out in the flow too, with some more rainfall, but not until the middle of next work week as the long wave pattern reloads off the Pacific with a kicker to the bump the upper low.

So, the big cool down is bonified, but brief as the big 1036mb surface air mass slides south over Nebraska by Football Friday night and moves over the Ohio River Valley late on Saturday. We will see NW winds early on Friday, but with a continued range of lower 90s for midweek and then topping off with a range of 80s on Friday in the wake of the cold front. N/NE winds continue for a super nice range of mid to upper 70s that will grace our Saturday and then some lower 80s returning for Sunday. We will see mid to upper 80s again by this time next week. /24/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

For the 12/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon with mostly clear skies punctuated by a few Cu, dissipating quickly after sundown. CIGs look to deteriorate overnight o MVFR and IFR between 13/09Z and 13/12Z, recovering by midmorning. Southerly winds will persist at average sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts of up to 20 kts possible.

/26/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through the overnight. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 74 92 74 93 / 0 20 0 0 MLU 68 94 68 95 / 0 10 0 0 DEQ 69 92 72 93 / 0 10 10 20 TXK 72 93 74 93 / 0 10 0 20 ELD 69 93 71 95 / 0 10 0 0 TYR 75 91 75 93 / 10 20 10 10 GGG 73 92 74 93 / 10 20 10 10 LFK 75 92 73 92 / 10 50 20 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.