textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- We are edging back close to climatological averages now with less rainfall in the offing, average temps are mid (60s & 80s). - The upper low will become stationary in the short term, but the scouring of moisture yesterday has brought wholesale changes. - We still have the next upper low kicker and the discussed potential for a late spring cold front arriving for early in June for the long term forecast.

UPDATE

Issued at 513 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A quick update was made to add additional POPs across portions of the region. An area of strong to severe thunderstorms have develop just west of our region, but short-term progs hint at some of this convection making it into Smith and Cherokee counties in East Texas over the next couple of hours. Additional isolated convection could develop with daytime heating over a large portion of our remaining forecast area, but this activity will diminish just after sunset. /20/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Slightly drier upper 60 dew points are edging down into the I-20 corridor at this time. We will see a few more mid 80s around today than previously thought and not much rainfall. There are a few little blips on the KSHV dual pol 88D all, east of I-49 and we continue a slight chance this afternoon. The upper low over TX is lifting into position over NE TX and will hang around into Tuesday. However, the big push yesterday scoured out most of the deep moisture and can be seen over the central Gulf of America, and up across SE LA and MS/AL. So not much for the TX low to work with has brought in diminished rain chances from what was expected last week for this Holiday weekend. Probably not many complaints I would assume and still the wet pattern will resume with next disturbance now moving over Baja.

This system will spread eastward and kick out the TX dry low with another spoke extending toward Hawaii under the deep low offshore of the NW Pacific. So the pattern is still full ghost rider and May will see a good bit more rain with likely PoPs by mid to late week. As mentioned earlier, the air mass expected to push a front our way is a week away. The forecast of NBM in the long term is leaning more in favor of the ECMWF with southerly winds lingering all month. It's 1021mb surface high will keep to the MidWest and Great Lakes states, but the GFS is consistent with a large and in charge surface high building to 1028mb by next Monday over MO/IA.

So we'll see if the previous long term agreement is restored or perhaps no front after all. Either way the SW flow aloft mid to late will bring the rains again and potentially through the month. And we will keep that going or maybe take another break from the wet pattern if the GFS pans out. As far as our week ahead, the WPC likes that notion of active SW flow with more ERO's for our Four- State area, with both some Slight and Marginal risks returning by midweek with the Baja disturbance. Seasonal temperatures should continue for much of this last week of May. /24/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 706 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions will continue this evening through much of the overnight hours, with isolated to widely scattered convection ongoing across the Wrn sections of E TX expected to diminish by early to mid evening, but not affect the TYR/LFK terminals. Some residual cu may linger through this evening through beneath cirrus cigs, although these should eventually begin to thin overnight. As it does so, patchy FG may develop across portions of Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, with LIFR cigs possible. IFR/low MVFR cigs are expected to develop between 12-15Z across Srn AR/N LA into portions of Deep E TX, before gradually lifting into a VFR cu field by midday/early afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered convection should develop over more of the region by mid and late afternoon Monday, with enough confidence to add VCTS to the LFK terminal near the center of a weak/broad area of low pressure aloft and weak sfc bndry that should be draped across this area. However, low confidence precludes mention to the remaining terminals attm. Lt/Vrb winds tonight will become ENE around 5kts after 15Z. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Memorial Day. /24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 68 86 68 86 / 20 30 20 30 MLU 67 85 67 86 / 20 40 40 60 DEQ 62 84 63 83 / 10 20 20 50 TXK 65 85 66 86 / 10 20 30 40 ELD 64 83 64 84 / 10 40 40 40 TYR 68 87 68 88 / 30 20 10 10 GGG 67 87 67 87 / 20 20 10 10 LFK 68 89 68 88 / 20 20 10 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.