textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 120 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- The potential remains for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms affecting Southeast Oklahoma, portions of East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and portions of Northwest Louisiana overnight through early this morning.

- Periods of heavy but much needed rainfall is expected across much of the region this weekend, which should ease the drought conditions in place. There is also the chance for some additional severe weather, especially this afternoon.

- A wet pattern will develop next week, as daily rain chances will be in the forecast. Can't rule out additional strong to severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall during this period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Above normal conditions continued across the region this past afternoon, with more record highs observed at a few of our climate locations. We expected some strong to severe thunderstorms during the past afternoon and evening hours, but this didn't materialize. However, some convection has started to develop across East Texas over the past hour, which has been strong enough for us to issue a couple of Special Weather Statements. We will likely see this convection expand into Southwest Arkansas and possibly Northwest Louisiana through daybreak. Can't rule out some of this convection becoming severe, with all modes of hazard weather on the table. As we continue through the overnight period, a cold front, currently extending from Central Oklahoma southwestward into Western Texas, will continue to shift eastward towards the region. A line of storms have already started to form along that line, and should remain intact as the front arrives at our northwestern zones around daybreak. This line will then continue to push southward into the region before it gets undercut by the front later this morning. But, additional convection could reform on the trailing 850 mb front. There should be enough elevated instability, shear, and low enough freezing levels for hail and damaging winds to be a threat today.

There still remain some question on if the front will push through the region this afternoon/evening or stall across the area. Either way, the thought is that even if it pushes through, it will return back Sunday as a warm front. This will keep rain chances for the remainder of the weekend. However, if the front stalls today, this could set up an overrunning rain situation, especially for most of the region south of the I-30 corridor. This could yield some locally heavy rainfall if this was to occur.

The front is expected to lift north of the region by Monday, which could gives up a brief break in rain. However, daily rain chances will return across the region for the first half of next week. Long-term progs continue to show a much stronger closed upper trough slowly pushing eastward towards the area from the northern Baja region of Mexico. Ahead of this trough, several disturbances will move into the region, resulting in daily rain chances, until the trough finally pushes through region by the middle of next week. Additional severe weather and excessive rainfall can't be ruled out during this period. Behind the trough, cooler and drier conditions will return. /20/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, MVFR assembling for our E TX sites with some showers approaching. S winds 5-15KT overnight with a few gusts. A cold front will seep into our area late day and early evening. The expectation remains for good convective development by daybreak, -TSRA spreading into across NE TX and into AR/LA in the 12-21Z with a midday lull, but coverage intensifies with peak heating and the fropa. W/NW winds spread across the region in the aftn/early eve and convection winding down toward 06Z. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 120 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Spotter activation will may be needed for the remainder of tonight and again today for a large portion of the region. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 82 61 74 65 / 90 80 40 10 MLU 83 63 76 64 / 90 80 70 10 DEQ 73 45 73 55 / 90 50 10 20 TXK 78 57 74 62 / 100 60 20 20 ELD 78 56 72 60 / 90 80 40 10 TYR 79 55 74 64 / 90 60 20 20 GGG 82 57 73 63 / 90 70 30 20 LFK 85 62 76 65 / 80 80 60 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.