textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Increased shower and thunderstorm activity is expected through the weekend. Those with outdoor activities scheduled should plan accordingly. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors! - Periods of locally heavy rainfall through the weekend will bring a localized flooding threat, particularly along and northwest of the Interstate 49 corridor. Remember, turn around, don't drown!

- Peak afternoon heat index values by the middle of next week should be near or above 100 degrees. Summertime heat safety plans should be reviewed and readied.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The main story in the short term portion of the forecast is the potential for isolated flash flooding due to periods of locally heavy rain and thunderstorms through tomorrow evening. This is being driven by an upper level disturbance moving slowly NNE through the weekend across the Southern Plains and into the Mid MS Valley and interacting with a very moist (2+ inch PW value) air mass. The atmospheric diurnal instability cycle should result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening and again tomorrow afternoon and evening. Instantaneous rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour in the more vigorous showers/storms could potentially cause at least localized flooding issues, especially where activity repeatedly trains over the same areas. The relative likelihood of these sorts of issues is highest generally along and north of the Interstate 30 corridor through tomorrow evening, although probabilities of such issues do not yet reach the threshold of needing a Flood Watch.

In addition, the atmospheric wind shear on the eastern and southern periphery of the mentioned disturbance is more than is typical for early summer and may promote at least some loose storm organization at times. The Storm Prediction Center is not highlighting any official risks for our area through tonight, but there is an SPC Marginal Risk for severe storms tomorrow into tomorrow evening north of the Interstate Thirty corridor. This risk is mainly tied to the low potential for a brief tornado owing to the low level wind shear. Other AI guidance suggests this conditional threat will be higher north of our area, but it still something we will be monitoring closely. Even this afternoon into this evening the severe weather threat will be very low, but non- zero, due to the shear/instability juxtaposition. Daytime temperatures through the weekend will be limited a bit by precipitation and clouds, but plenty of humidity will drive heat indices well into the 90s in some spots.

NWP guidance is still rather consistent in pulling the disturbance in deep SW flow off to our north tomorrow night, so convective activity will likely taper off during the evening hours. Immediately after the disturbance departs, we still anticipate that an upper level ridge of high pressure will build in over the Four State region and greatly decrease rain chances for at least Monday through Thursday. Some isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms cannot be ruled out each day in this period, but the main story will be temperatures roughly 5 to 7 degrees above average for the time of year. This will translate to high temperatures in the low to mid 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday, with even some patches of upper 90s showing up by Thursday/Friday. Elevated humidity values should result in peak heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range by the middle of next week and one or two days of needing Heat Advisories cannot be ruled out, especially by Thursday/Friday. NWP guidance is a little more uncertain (compared to runs from yesterday) about the ridge breaking down a great deal by the end of next week, but there are some scenarios depicting a cold front impinging on our area from the north by next weekend and this would result in increasing shower and storm chances. /50/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

For the 06/18Z TAFs, the morning's low cloud decks have recovered and will be filled in by convective Cu fields in the upper MVFR to lower VFR height range. In addition to an organized cluster of a line of showers advancing east across Texas, scattered convection is beginning to fill in eastward of the line. These scattered showers and storms mat result in brief VIS impacts to terminals as well as occasional wind gusts. After convection diminishes into the evening, CIGs are expected to crater overnight, dropping to IFR levels by daybreak tomorrow, with patchy VSBY reductions possible. Southeast winds will continue throughout, becoming light overnight and picking up in speed into the day tomorrow.

/26/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 74 88 76 92 / 50 60 10 10 MLU 74 89 76 92 / 20 60 10 20 DEQ 70 84 72 90 / 70 70 40 10 TXK 73 88 74 93 / 50 70 20 10 ELD 72 86 73 91 / 60 60 10 20 TYR 73 88 75 92 / 30 40 10 10 GGG 73 88 75 92 / 40 50 10 10 LFK 73 88 75 92 / 40 50 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.