textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Unseasonable warmth continues through Sunday afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

- Showers and storms return late Sunday, pushing through overnight and concluding by Monday morning. A few strong storms are possible across portions of southwest Arkansas.

- Much colder early next week, with lows below freezing Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Precautions should be taken for sensitive persons and vegetation. Warmer weather will start to return by New Year's.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

The vast upper level ridge which has been responsible for this unseasonably warm latter third of December will remain a player in our forecast through the mid to late weekend. As this week draws to a close and we usher in Saturday, the ridge axis will drift gradually eastward over the Deep South, but keeping the ArkLaTex still very much in the ridge's grip. Therefore, the next two days will see an extension of the well-above average warmth and quiet weather, with no rainfall expected. The warm and moist airmass will continue to allow the possibility of patchy fog in the predawn hours, but confidence in development is not high enough to prevail in the wx grids. Any visibility reductions should be brief, with associated cloud cover burning off my mid to late morning. Saturday and Sunday afternoons will see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with morning lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Meanwhile, as the weekend begins, an emerging upper level trough over the west coast will amplify as it advances eastward over the Four Corners region, developing a positive tilt as it does so and ultimately getting absorbed into a larger longwave trough to its north. This feature will swing a potent cold front into the ArkLaTex late Sunday overnight into Monday, introducing our first rainfall chances in several days, as well as a significant change to our temperature pattern.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin across our northwest in the late afternoon to early evening Sunday, spreading across the remainder of the ArkLaTex through the evening and overnight. A few strong storms are not out of the question across our most northern zones of southwest Arkansas. The last of the rainfall should exit the region to the southeast by sunrise Monday morning. The latest forecast cycle started to introduce the slight possibility of wintry precip just barely grazing the northern edge of McCurtain county just before daybreak Monday. However, given the number of variables this far out, chiefly the timing of the precip and resulting potential overlap with the cold air, elected to smooth out this brief feature, prevailing all rain at this time.

Behind the front, cold air will rapidly advect into our Four State Region, dropping temperatures to near freezing in our northwest by daybreak Monday, and into the lower 40s south and east. Monday afternoon will see little in the way of recovery, as highs climb into the 40s across the region, maybe reaching 50 at the warmest sites. Monday night into Tuesday morning will see sub- freezing temperatures areawide, ranging from the lower 20s north to upper 20s south. It will be advisable to make any necessary preparations for sensitive groups, outdoor pets and vegetation, as well as exposed pipes. Tuesday will see a near carbon copy of Monday, with highs in the 40s and another night of sub-freezing lows to follow before Wednesday sees the beginning of a warming trend with highs back in the 50s for the last afternoon of 2025, and quiet and warmer weather continuing into the new year as more 60s return to the forecast to usher in 2026.

/26/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Expecting low clouds to build in from the south late tonight and early this morning across the Four State region. MVFR ceilings should build into all TAFs sites, starting around 1 AM at LFK, around 4 AM along the I-20 corridor, and around 6 AM at TXK and ELD. These ceilings should only take a few hours after that to lower to IFR to LIFR levels with some lowering of visibilities as well, although dense fog is generally not anticipated. It is likely that low clouds will not clear out as quickly as was the case in most areas yesterday, although conditions should improve to MVFR by noon and then will likely scatter out to VFR by 2 to 3 PM in the afternoon. Otherwise, expect surface winds of 4 to 8 mph from the SSW tonight and then pick up from this direction in the midday to afternoon hours from 10 to 15 mph with some gusts up to 20 mph. Expect VFR conditions in all areas before tomorrow evening, although more low clouds are anticipated late Saturday night. /50/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1224 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through the upcoming weekend.

/19

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 67 80 65 81 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 64 78 63 79 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 56 77 61 74 / 0 0 0 30 TXK 64 80 64 79 / 0 0 0 20 ELD 62 76 61 76 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 66 80 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 65 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 65 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.