textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Fire weather will remain the primary forecast concern through the next 7 days as conditions remain dry and warm.

- Following proper fire weather precautions, such as obeying local burn bans and refraining from activities that could generate sparks/flames will help mitigate fire starts and spreads.

- Temperatures will moderate through the work week, and will be above-normal for this time of year by mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

A glance at the upper level pattern early this afternoon reveals an expansive area of generally low-amplitude high pressure extending from the Great Plains and Deep South through the Midwest, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes Region. A split-flow pattern has developed upstream of this ridge, with a strong belt of polar westerlies situated across the Pacific Northwest and through western and central Canada, while loose, open-wave troughing exists across the Baja region and adjacent Desert Southwest. Closer to the surface, high pressure rules the majority of the US east of the Rocky Mountains, with the exception being a cold front moving across the Northern Great Plains in association with a potent cyclone over northern Manitoba.

Across the Four State Region, the pattern described above is the perfect formula for continued dry weather. The cooler airmass in place from Friday's frontal passage will modify slightly this afternoon, yielding temperatures in the low to mid 70s. While this combined with dewpoints in the 40s will make for a pleasant Fall feel outside, it brings with it continued fire weather concerns. Despite light winds, severe to extreme drought conditions, critically dry fuels, and afternoon relative humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent range will coexist to make for favorable fire weather conditions this afternoon, meaning fire starts and rapid fire spreads can be easily achieved. Please continue to obey local burn bans and limit activities that may induce sparks/flames.

After another seasonably cool night, temperatures will begin to modify more noticeably to begin the work week. High temperatures Monday afternoon will make a run for 80 degrees for many locations as mid/upper level high pressure continues to provide ample subsidence. Given little displacement of surface high pressure and a lack of appreciable southerly low level flow, felt that the NBM and some of the hi-res guidance was a bit too aggressive with moisture return (especially across western zones where this was most noticeable in the latest runs), and have opted to temper dewpoints some on Monday, which in turn lowered RH values and kept them in the 30 percent range. As will end up seemingly like a forever repeat this coming week, another Fire Danger Statement is needed for Monday. All fire weather precautions need to continue to be taken seriously into the work week.

There is not much to discuss in detail beyond Tuesday. The upper level ridge will amplify by mid-week as a rather strong closed low dives south from the west coast of BC towards the CA coast. This will help continue to make for a warming trend in afternoon temperatures given clear skies and persistent large scale subsidence. Moisture return will be hampered by the dominance of light NE winds from sfc high pressure centered around the Great Lakes. The resultant radiational cooling will keep nights seasonably cool in the 50s. While the absence of Gulf moisture return will make the outdoors feel comfortable, fire weather will continue to be a issue. Expect minimum relative humidity values each afternoon to range from the upper teens to lower 30 percent range, prompting a high likelihood of carrying a Fire Danger Statement through the entire week. Red Flag Warnings could not be entirely out of the realm of possibilities either.

Current ensemble guidance lends high confidence to a dry pattern continuing even just beyond this forecast period, as WPC clusters all favor high amplitude ridging from the Southern Great Plains into the Midwest and through the Hudson Bay region.

Kovacik

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR for this TAF cycle and all this week perhaps as cool and dry air becomes warmer and drier air increasing our wildfire threat. Surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic is being fortified by a secondary air mass moving over the Great Lakes. E/SE winds 5-10KT for Monday will back to E/NE for Tuesday and remain NE through mid to late week. Aloft, the westerlies are streaming in cirrus with No Rain clouds expected until after next weekend, to end the month. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Spotter activation may be needed through the upcoming week in the event of wildfire development.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 51 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 48 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 44 82 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 47 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 45 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 50 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 48 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 51 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.