textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Much colder conditions will spill into the region tonight through Saturday, setting the stage for a prolonged freeze areawide Saturday night/Sunday morning.

- Although temperatures will begin to moderate Sunday, near to below normal readings will persist through the first half of the new work week before moderating.

- Much needed rainfall is poised to return to the region Wednesday and possibly linger into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The late evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has shifted quickly S into SW LA, Acadiana, and into SCntrl MS, although low AC cigs linger behind the front along the base of the lead shortwave trough traversing the Mid-South and Lower MS Valley. Weak elevated forcing continues along the base of this trough behind the front, with the last of the sprinkles/-RA having just exited Grant and La Salle Parishes. Very dry, arctic air continues to shift SSE into the Srn Plains, and will deepen over the region during the day Saturday ahead of sfc ridging that will continue to build S into S TX, Wrn and the Nrn Gulf. A 150kt upper level jet streak noted over the Nrn Plains will dive S and amplify the longwave troughing along the leeside of the Rockies into the Srn Plains Saturday, with elevated cigs increasing by and after daybreak N of I-20, gradually spreading SE during the day along and ahead of the longwave trough.

The short term progs continue to suggest weak elevated forcing along the base of this trough, but the post-frontal air mass will continue to dry and deepen through the day with dewpoints mixing well into the teens, with single digits across much of NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. The NAM remains most aggressive with air mass saturation and is likely out to lunch, but with sfc RH's anticipated to fall to 15-25% areawide by afternoon, and even drier above the bndry lyr, am not expecting any sprinkles to reach the ground. Despite cooling aloft, the freezing level will remain too high and sfc temps too warm to support flurries during the day, with confidence very low even across the Srn zones during the evening before the drier air deepens within the dendritic growth zone. Increasing AC cigs and the prospect for evaporative cooling will limit the extent of warming during the day especially N of I-20, with temps only climbing into the 40s, although temps will fall sharply areawide after sunset especially as these cigs quickly clear the region with the departing upper trough. In fact, a prolonged freeze is expected areawide as temps fall below freezing during the evening, and remain so through at least mid to late morning Saturday. A Hard Freeze is expected Saturday night across McCurtain County OK and the adjacent sections of SW AR as readings fall into the mid teens, but have deferred the Hard Freeze Warning to the day shift Saturday. Elsewhere, min temps will remain above Hard Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory criteria, before the air mass begins to moderate slightly by Sunday as the sfc ridging shifts S into the Wrn and Nrn Gulf.

The slow moderating trend Sunday will translate into slightly "warmer" temps Sunday night, although additional sfc ridging will build back S into the region during the day Monday, reinforcing the cool and dry air mass already in place. This should again result in another long duration of subfreezing temps over much of the area Monday night, before the air mass begins to moderate again by Tuesday night once the sfc ridging shifts E of the region. The synoptic pattern should transition to more of a zonal flow by midweek, which should tap ample Pacific moisture E across TX and the Gulf coast. Low level moisture will also begin to increase as a SWrly LLJ develops Wednesday ahead of an approaching shortwave that will traverse TX, which will translate into the anticipated return of some much needed rainfall to the region during the day and especially into Wednesday night, possibly lingering into Thursday. The return to dry conditions with near normal temps is expected by the end of the forecast period.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals today with high clouds expected to translate southeast across the region. Otherwise, northwest winds 5 to 10 knots near daybreak to increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts after 18/15Z. Winds to gradually diminish late this afternoon, becoming 5 knots or less overnight. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1214 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through early next week. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 49 24 53 32 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 51 24 48 30 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 43 15 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 46 21 50 30 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 45 18 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 49 24 56 33 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 49 23 54 31 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 53 24 55 31 / 0 10 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.