textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms likely across the ArkLaTex today.

- Transition from troughing to ridging aloft leads to decreasing rain chances and increasing heat from Thursday into the weekend.

- Further ridging amplification overhead into the start of next week brings chances for triple digit heat across the ArkLaTex to rise. Heat products could be issued as confidence is further nailed down.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the Four State Region sandwiched between two upper-level lows. One retrograding northwestward across the AR/TN border has and is continuing to bring showers and thunderstorms in our area in SW AR, while the low over S-Central Texas has developed rainbands that have been trekking NNE across portions of C/SE TX.

Recent Hi-Res model trends have continued to project confidence in further development of these scattered showers and thunderstorms in East and Southeast Texas that could linger around long enough to trek through our region this afternoon into the evening hours. Elected to slightly increase PoPs to reflect this. Overnight, lack of diurnal heating will cut off the needed thermals for these showers to support themselves and we should see them dissipate like yesterday. QPFs associated with this system are expected to remain under an inch, however locally heavier downpours could result in areas receiving amounts greater than that, that could lead to some flash flooding concerns. Lows tonight will range from upper 60s to the lower 70s.

The upper level pattern starts to move into a transitional state on Thursday, with isolated to scattered afternoon shwrs & tstorms possible as lift associated with the retrograding low is still dominant. By the end of Friday night into Saturday subsidence aloft from a ridge building in from the Northern Gulf will decrease chances of any precip and warm us up into the mid 90s. Lows during this period will rise into the low to mid 70s

Over the weekend, and especially into at least this time next week, this ridge will further cement itself and amplify over the South Central US, with the ridge axis extending from the NM/OK border into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Due to this extended period of time under this ridge (heat dome), temperatures could rise past the upper 90s into the triple digits. Current long-range forecasts have the ArkLaTex into Heat Advisory criteria as we enter the workweek, however any products will be issued later on as heat indices will depend on how much our dewpoints are mixed out or not by subsidence from the ridge. Overnight lows to remain in the mid 70s.

Ozimek/Thorne

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR areawide with heating working to bring some changes to that with convection, right here at KSHV for starters. VCTY shwrs cropping up along I-20 with TS at KSHV and KTYR soon. In addition, a good sea breeze push is moving NE toward KLFK and will likely affect many other terminals mid to late aftn. Models bring down turn with sunset and then we are likely to see spotty IFR/MVFR cigs/vsby again 09-15Z, with VFR by lunch and then latest model run has more SCT convection for one last aftn, again.

/24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested across the region, particularly for flooding concerns across the region. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 73 92 75 93 / 30 10 10 20 MLU 72 94 75 95 / 20 0 0 0 DEQ 68 89 70 90 / 40 10 10 10 TXK 72 92 73 94 / 40 10 10 20 ELD 70 91 72 94 / 40 10 0 0 TYR 72 91 74 92 / 30 20 10 20 GGG 72 91 73 93 / 30 20 10 30 LFK 71 91 73 93 / 10 20 0 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.