textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM Friday morning, as moderate to heavy rain will move across our NW zones. Rainfall amounts of 1" to 3", with some isolated totals will be possible.

- A slow moving upper trough/cool front will keep rain chances in the forecast through the weekend over the entire forecast area.

- Cooler temperatures are expected to follow next week, as a stronger cold front will sweep through the region on Sunday, ushering in the coolest air so far this fall season.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A much needed pattern change has unfolded across the region, as a closed upper trough has ejected into the Central Plains. Along and ahead of the associated cool front, much needed rain has developed across the western half of the region this afternoon. Unfortunately, this rain could be on the heavy side, which has prompted us to issue a Flood Watch through 7 AM Friday for areas along and west of a line from Tyler Texas to Clarksville Texas to McCurtain County Oklahoma. This watch essentially coincides with the Moderate Risk that WPC has out for portions of our forecast area. So far, no reported flooding, however Tyler Pounds Field Airport has reported nearly 1-3/4" of rain in a about 1-1/2 hours. With more rain expected in the watch area tonight along and ahead of the nearly stationary front, flooding could become an issue.

The trough will lose some steam tonight into Friday, as it starts to open up, but a developing sfc low across East Texas along the front will keep decent rain chances across the NW half of the region through Saturday morning, essentially along and west of a line from Lufkin Texas to Shreveport to El Dorado Arkansas. Slight afternoon rain chances will be possible over the remainder of the region, as moisture from an inverted trough in the Gulf will help ignite some isolated convection during the peak heating hours. The front will finally push through the region on Saturday, but models are keeping some post frontal precipitation chances possibly into early Sunday morning.

Eventually, a much stronger cool front will sweep across the region on Sunday. Expect to see a return in dry weather, along with the coolest temperatures of the early fall season for most of next week. Daily afternoon highs will top out in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s. /20/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Rain is ongoing at or near most East TX terminals, with some pop- up showers around most other sites. This will continue into the evening and through the overnight hours. The main hazards from the rain will be locally gusty outflow winds and dropping visibility from heavy downpours. The stream of showers and storms should become less organized beginning late tomorrow morning and through the remainder of the period. MVFR cigs will be possible around and after daybreak tomorrow, although severity and locations could depend on where rain continues to fall this evening. /57/

CLIMATE

Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

It was a September for the record books! All-time Avg temperature records were set at 4 of our climate sites, with top 5 readings at the remainder of the climate locations. The numbers are as follows:

LOCATION SEPT AVG. ALL-TIME RANK PREVIOUS/CURRENT RECORD ------------------------------------------------------------------ LONGVIEW TX 85.1 1ST 84.3 IN 1939 TYLER TX 84.8 1ST 84.7 IN 2019 TEXARKANA AR 84.4 1ST 84.3 IN 1939 SHREVEPORT LA 84.2 1ST 83.7 IN 2019 MONROE, LA 83.5 3RD 83.7 IN 1911 EL DORADO, AR 83.1 2ND 83.6 IN 1925 LUFKIN TX 82.5 4TH 83.2 IN 1933 ------------------------------------------------------------------

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Spotter activation could be needed through Friday morning. Although some damaging winds can't be ruled out, flash flooding will by the primary threat, especially in and near the Flood Watch. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 73 88 71 83 / 30 30 40 50 MLU 72 93 71 88 / 20 20 30 40 DEQ 65 80 62 76 / 80 80 60 60 TXK 69 81 66 76 / 60 60 60 60 ELD 70 88 66 82 / 30 30 40 40 TYR 71 81 69 79 / 70 70 60 60 GGG 70 85 68 82 / 60 50 50 50 LFK 72 88 71 85 / 40 40 30 60

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ096-108>111-124-125- 136.