textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- A decaying thunderstorm complex will move into the region prior to daybreak Thursday, but will gradually diminish through the day, but provide slightly cooler temperatures.

- While additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible areawide Friday, convection with the potential for wetting rains will spread across the region late Friday night through the day Saturday along and ahead of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The early morning radar imagery indicates an extensive convective complex extending from the Ozarks SE through Ern and Cntrl OK through portions of N and WCntrl TX. This convection has shifted E away from the dryline, with MLCapes quickly waning with increased CIN, which has resulted in an overall slow weakening trend with the storms. However, IR satellite imagery depicts that cloud tops continue to cool in response to ongoing large scale forcing ahead of the upper trough progressing E into the Wrn TX Panhandle into Wrn KS. While this trough axis will continue to lift ENE into the Cntrl Plains and Midwest through the day Thursday, the best forcing associated with the trough will begin to shift farther NE away from the region especially during the afternoon, but not before this area of convection begins to spread into SE OK/adjacent SW AR and E TX shortly before daybreak this morning. However, this convection should begin to quickly diminish by midday and especially this afternoon, although the morning rains and extensive cloud cover should reduce insolation resulting in cooler temps than what has been observed the last few days. Thus, have concentrated categorical and likely pops this morning across the Wrn half of the area, before reducing pops to chance for the afternoon, with most areas becoming rain-free by sunset. Still can't rule out isolated convection redeveloping this evening NW of the I-30 corridor associated with H850 theta-e ridging and weak orographic lift from the Ouachitas, but otherwise, Srly bndry lyr winds and increasing stratus development will maintain mild temps overnight.

The flow aloft will become increasingly SW tonight with the departing Midwest trough, and ahead of a deepening upper trough now moving onto the OR coast that will progress E through the Rockies into the Plains Friday. The short term progs continue to suggest that a shortwave perturbation in the SW flow will eject NE across the area Friday afternoon during peak heating, which should enhance scattered convection development over the region. There still remains some variability with the extent of convection development Friday afternoon, and given this lower confidence, have trimmed back the NBM likely pops down to mid and high chance. As the aforementioned trough axis continues to shift E through the nation's midsection Friday night, large scale forcing will begin to increase Friday afternoon along and just ahead of its attendant cold front from Cntrl KS S through Cntrl and Wrn OK into NW and W TX, before sliding ESE through the Ozarks and Srn Plains Friday night. Thus, convection coverage should begin to increase across areas NW of the I-30 corridor after midnight, although the cold front should wait until around daybreak Saturday before entering the NW zones. For this reason, have raised the NBM min temps which appear much too cool, although the increasing convection and thickening cloud cover will result in cooler temps areawide Saturday afternoon. Attm, believe that any severe potential will be low and diminishing after midnight NW of the I-30 corridor with the weakening MLCapes, although adequate frontal forcing within a 40-50kt SWrly LLJ axis and strong bulk shear will maintain an organized MCS containing heavy rainfall and the potential for gusty winds that will shift SE through the area. Some weak instability may try and develop by afternoon over portions of Deep E TX and NCntrl LA, but the progs suggest that overall shear will begin to weaken during the afternoon but isolated strong storms still can't be ruled out although the overall severe threat should remain low.

QPF amounts of 1-2+ inches are expected Saturday, but these totals should do little other than slightly alleviating the ongoing drought, especially as another prolonged period of dryness commences in wake of the cold fropa Saturday/Saturday night. The tradeoff though will be the awaited return of cooler and drier air in time for Easter Sunday, with near to below normal temps expected through at least Tuesday as sfc ridging builds S to the Gulf Coast, which may be reinforced with additional sfc ridging over the Mid MS Valley Tuesday. A gradual warming trend should commence by mid and late week as a SSErly bndry lyr flow returns, although any low level moisture return will await until late week into next weekend, at which time the potential for isolated to scattered convection returns. /15/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

For the 02/12z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing an increase in showers across portions of east Texas that will slowly impact our terminals throughout the day. Will keep some mention of at least VCSH for most terminals today as KTYR and KGGG are the only ones I have enough confidence to place mention of showers in at this time. Otherwise, we have seen widespread MVFR conditions this morning due to low clouds moving through the region. While we will gradually see some improvement throughout the day, any showers that happen to move over a terminal will potentially bring flight categories back down. Looks like widespread MVFR CIGs will return to the area during the overnight hours into Friday morning. South winds will be breezy at times today, with sustained winds around 10-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts expected. Winds are subject to be stronger than this at times with any stronger storms that could develop through the day. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed today and tonight. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 82 67 85 68 / 60 10 50 20 MLU 84 67 87 68 / 40 10 50 20 DEQ 82 63 81 58 / 70 20 50 80 TXK 83 67 85 67 / 80 10 50 60 ELD 82 65 85 67 / 50 10 50 30 TYR 82 69 82 67 / 80 10 30 50 GGG 82 68 83 67 / 80 10 40 40 LFK 80 68 83 68 / 60 10 30 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.