textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Another round of strong to severe storms is expected this afternoon and evening across the southern zones of ArkLaTex, with the hazards of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes all still present.

- A wet conclusion to the week is in store, with rainfall Thursday and Friday areawide, raising the potential for flash flooding.

- Rain is expected to end by early Saturday, with a quiet and cooler than average weekend to follow, then a warm-up into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Further organized convection is not expected across the ArkLaTex tonight. However, models still suggest scattered showers developing at intervals overnight, thus have retained PoPs between 06Z and 12Z. The cold front draped across north Texas is expected to progress south and east across the region tomorrow, providing the forcing mechanism for another round of scattered thunderstorms. As with previous days, given a favorable environment, the potential remains for storms to become strong to severe. Storm development looks to amplify south of the I-20 corridor during the early afternoon hours, with additional rounds of storms pushing in from the northwest into the evening. Storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Period of torrential heavy rainfall may also result in localized flash flooding.

In the wake of tomorrow's storms, an unsettled pattern will remain, as pseudo-zonal flow holds in place aloft, with sufficient moisture returns to fuel rainfall chances Thursday, in advance of the next organized system. A closed low off the Baja peninsula will open up into a trough as it pushes east across northern Mexico and over Texas late this week, driving high chances for rainfall through Friday and overnight into Saturday. This system may produce between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall across the region, a signal for potential flash flooding which will be watched as the week continues. The most recent timing models usher this rainfall out of the ArkLaTex by daybreak Saturday, midday at the latest.

Prolonged cloud cover and rainfall will keep temperatures mild through the end of the week, and the passage of the next frontal boundary will usher in an unusually cool first weekend of May, with highs only aiming for the 60s and 70s, and lows dropping into the 50s and even 40s Sunday morning. A warm up to more seasonable highs in the 80s is expected to begin the new work week, with mostly quiet weather continuing until a slight chance of thunder returns to our northeastern zones at the tail end of this extended forecast period.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

For the 29/06Z TAF period...

Lack of convection across any of our airspace attm leaves me very surprised given that a cold front was currently located near the I- 30 Corridor late this evening. Lack of upper forcing and a strong capping inversion are the main reasons why we are precipitation free attm with the million dollar question being how long will this continue to be the case. A majority of HighRes and CAM output suggests that the above mentioned boundary will continue making slow but steady progress south and east through our airspace overnight and through the day Wednesday. As this happens, we should begin to see at least scattered precipitation coverage beginning across our airspace, both along the boundary and in the wake of the boundary. Have therefore trended precipitation mention, initially as showers by mid morning, followed by VCTS and prevailing TSRA by late morning into the afternoon hours with the aid of some daytime heating and instability aloft moving ovhd. Something else progs are insistent on is post frontal IFR ceilings and have thus followed suit across our entire airspace post frontal ceiling wise through this 24 hour TAF forecast. Will likely see some improvement however near and north of the I-30 Corridor ceiling wise by late afternoon into the evening and have thus trended this way at the TXK and ELD terminals. Pre- frontal winds will continue to be from the SE to SW with speeds generally near or under 10kts with post frontal winds being from the N to NE with speeds generally near or under 10kts.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Spotter activation will likely be needed again this afternoon through tonight for the threat of severe thunderstorms across the region.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 79 61 71 55 / 70 70 40 70 MLU 82 61 74 55 / 80 70 30 60 DEQ 74 54 69 49 / 30 20 20 50 TXK 75 59 70 54 / 50 40 30 60 ELD 76 55 71 50 / 50 50 20 60 TYR 75 62 70 55 / 60 50 50 70 GGG 77 61 70 55 / 70 60 50 70 LFK 84 65 74 58 / 70 70 50 70

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.