textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Hotter and more humid conditions will remain across the region this weekend, with dry conditions persisting through Sunday morning.

- While isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across portions of North and Central Louisiana Sunday, a more unsettled weather pattern is expected for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A shift in the weather pattern to more of a southwesterly flow is starting to take shape in wake of the departing upper ridge. At the same time, southerly flow continues to ramp up in response to sfc cyclogenesis across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. This has resulted southerly winds near 15 mph on Friday, with gusts up to 25 mph at times. Despite this, the low-level layer of the atmosphere remains dry. This is keeping dry conditions across the area, despite radar returns from the presence of a weak disturbance moving across the I-30 corridor within the upper flow this evening. Some progs continue to hint at some slight POPs along and north of Interstate 30 overnight, but with the lack of low-level moisture, the decision was made to keep precipitation out of the forecast. But, a few sprinkles can't be ruled out. We should keep cloud cover overnight, along with the winds. This will yield warmer temperatures, with morning lows falling around the 70 degree mark areawide. Expect partly cloudy skies and continued dry conditions across the region today, with highs topping out again in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Winds will stay elevated, but remain below Wind Advisory criteria, as the sfc low will continue to meander across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and adjacent Southwestern Kansas.

On Sunday, we introduce some slight rain chances, as some weak impulses will move along the flow across the region. Models also continue to suggest some seabreeze convection will move into our Louisiana zones during the afternoon hours. As we move into next week, long-term progs suggest embedded impulses will become more frequent along the southwesterly flow, resulting in daily shower and thunderstorm chances. In addition to this, a cold front is expected to move into the region by mid-week, enhancing rain chances. Uncertainty with timing and placement of convection remains in the long-term, but with plenty of gulf moisture and instability expected to be in place next week, daily rain chances seem reasonable, along with the possibility of moderate to heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storms. Please continue to monitor the forecast for updates. /20/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Plenty of cirrus and high AC currently observed across our airspace late this evening/early this morning but look for this high cloud cover to thin as we go through the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, look for returning stratus in the form of MVFR ceilings across all but the ELD/MLU terminals this morning but any lower ceilings should be brief due to mid to late morning mixing. Any lower ceilings should be replaced by a descent daytime cu field however. Tight pressure gradient will remain across our airspace as well with sustained south winds near 10-16kts with gusts upwards of 25kts at times, especially across our NE TX terminals. Returning lower ceilings should prevail just beyond this 24hr TAF package and will address this with the 12z TAF package.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through this weekend. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 72 89 75 89 / 0 20 10 30 MLU 68 88 72 90 / 0 30 10 20 DEQ 69 87 71 86 / 0 20 40 50 TXK 71 90 73 90 / 0 20 20 40 ELD 68 87 71 88 / 0 20 10 20 TYR 73 89 74 89 / 0 20 20 30 GGG 72 90 74 89 / 0 20 20 30 LFK 74 90 76 89 / 10 20 10 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.