textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1246 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon and especially this evening over portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas.

- Much needed rainfall will spread southeast into the region late tonight through this weekend, with the potential for isolated strong storms Saturday across portions of East Texas, North Louisiana, and Southcentral Arkansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The morning stratus shield has begun to lift across the region late this morning, but cigs are struggling to scatter out as low level moisture has begun to deepen, ahead of a potent upper trough drifting E through the Rockies and Four Corners Region. The pressure gradient has also tightened as expected, with gusty S winds noted on the 17-18Z obs especially over E TX/Wrn LA/extreme SW AR and SE OK, with gusts of 25+kts observed. The latest sfc analysis also indicates that the dry line has begun to mix E as well out of the TX Panhandle into far Wrn OK into the Big Country of WCntrl TX, and should make better progress through the afternoon, with a 35-40+ kt Srly LLJ advecting higher theta-e air Nwd from NCntrl TX into Ern OK. This has translated into SBCapes of 1000-2000 J/kg already over these areas, which will continue to climb through the afternoon with additional warm advection and insolation. 0-6km shear remains strongest (30-40+ kts) as of 18Z over much of Cntrl and Ern OK, which should increase slightly more through the afternoon as PVA increases in the SWrly flow aloft ahead of the slowly ejecting upper trough to our W.

With the environment being primed, increase large scale forcing should lead to scattered convection development by mid and late afternoon near and E of the dryline, with the majority of the ensemble clusters maintaining the strongest convection just WNW of the region until shortly before 00Z Saturday. Still some uncertainty though as to how far E the convection will develop late this afternoon, but the greatest confidence remains during the evening NW of the I-30 corridor, as additional development occurs farther SSW into NCntrl TX, before the convection is able to slowly spread more Ewd into SW AR and NE TX overnight. Have maintained severe mention for the NW zones this evening, although the convection should gradually weaken with the stabilizing bndry lyr, although the convection should be maintained by the presence of a 40kt Swrly LLJ, steep lapse rates, additional forcing embedded in the SWrly mean flow aloft, and the potential for mesoscale bndrys associated with the earlier convection development. The NBM remains much too aggressive with pops late this afternoon through tonight, and thus have backed off pops to some extent this evening before increasing pops to likely/categorical late especially along/N of the I-20 corridor. The HRRR doesn't hint at much this evening or overnight across the Nrn zones, and it isn't until a cold front overtakes the dryline late over Ern OK does it really increase convection along the front by daybreak Saturday.

The short term progs suggest we may be dealing with two areas of convection initially...one initiating across the NW and Nrn zones this evening overnight, as it redevelops farther SSW along the SWrly LLJ/theta-e axis, as well as along the frontal zone as it enters the region by mid and late morning Saturday. Low level shear should gradually weaken through the day, but diurnal heating and attendant instability should help maintain convection through the day along and just ahead of the front. Isolated strong to severe storms with locally gusty winds along with heavy rainfall will be the main threats, with the convection expected to reinforce the front S through E TX/N LA through the afternoon and evening. Weak overrunning atop the front coupled with additional forcing aloft with the perturbations in the SW flow aloft should maintain convection development over much of the region Saturday evening, before gradually diminishing/shifting SE overnight through Sunday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3+ inches are expected, which should help ease the severe/extreme drought conditions in place, but given that the rains should be spread out in time, any flooding should be localized especially with any slow moving heavy rainfall producers over the same areas.

The remnants of the front should begin to lift N and eventually wash out Sunday night into Monday, expanding the warmer and more humid air back N. While isolated to scattered mainly diurnal convection will remain possible across the region Monday, we will have to wait for the closed low that will develop as it branches off from the current upper trough out W and settles in over the Baja region. Timing and strength uncertainties remain amongst the various medium range ensemble members, with a more closed solution similar to the GEFS implying that unsettled weather will persist longer across the region instead of a more rapidly ejecting trough. In any case, the blends suggest that the Tuesday night/Wednesday timeframe will be more favorable for increasing development ahead of this ejecting system, with the potential for severe convection with heavy rainfall again returning to the region.

15

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR going into the evening with more MVFR cigs assembling overnight. Southerly winds 5-15KT overnight with a few gusts. A cold front will seep into our area by sundown on Saturday. The models vary, but expectations remain for good convective development by daybreak, spreading SE across NE TX and into AR/LA in the 16-20Z Coverage intensifies with heating and the front arriving. W/NW winds spread across the region in the afternoon and early evening hours and filter to our S by 06Z. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1246 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and especially this evening over portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 69 81 61 74 / 70 90 80 40 MLU 69 82 63 74 / 50 90 80 70 DEQ 64 72 49 73 / 90 80 50 10 TXK 67 77 55 73 / 90 90 70 20 ELD 67 76 56 71 / 80 100 80 40 TYR 69 78 55 73 / 70 90 80 20 GGG 68 79 56 74 / 70 80 80 30 LFK 69 83 61 75 / 40 90 90 60

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.