textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Persistence continues to be the rule of thumb with this forecast with the key messaging surrounding the upcoming heat wave.

- Upper ridging will continue building in from the northwest as we begin the upcoming work week which will only allow for even hotter temperatures with near triple digit temperatures likely across most of the area if not Tue then especially on Wed.

- We continue to hold off on any kind of Heat Advisories for Sunday but this may become difficult for at least the eastern and northern half of our region on Monday and more areawide for Tue into Wed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Upper ridging this late hour in the evening appears to be anchored across Deep S TX towards the upper SE TX coast and into portions of N LA with this feature expected to move very little over the next 24 to 36 hours. Much drier air in association with this feature in the form of drier PWATS, which our region saw a glimpse up today, should be more apparent across our region on Sunday and into Monday, especially across our southwest half. The problem with this is as we see maybe a little more in the way of lower afternoon humidity the next couple days, ambient temperatures will only get a little hotter and thus, maximum heat indices are a wash so to speak. All this to say that we will see pockets of 105+ degrees maximum heat indices on Sunday, especially across our eastern and northern zones but pockets become more widespread across our east and northern zones by the time we get into Monday. Thus, we have held off on any kind of Heat Advisory until possibly Monday.

As the forecast pivots into Tuesday and especially Wednesday, an Intermountain West upper ridge will continue building south and east, into the Southern Plains and especially the Upper and Middle Red River Valley. By Tuesday, we are easily seeing 850mb temps north of 24 Deg/C across much of our region with pockets of 26 Deg/C across our northwest half and values perhaps approaching 27 to 28 Deg/C across our northwest half by Wednesday. All this to say, triple digit heat is poised to impact most of if not all our region on Tue and if not Tue, definitely by Wednesday of this upcoming work week. Ambient temperatures of this magnitude combined with afternoon humidity has virtually all of our region exceeding 105 degrees by Wed and dangerously close to reaching Extreme Heat Warning criteria of widespread 110+ degree heat indices across at least our eastern half Wed Aftn.

Beyond Wednesday, the forecast could get a little more interesting, depending on what an area of low pressure across the NE Gulf begins to do. There has been descent consensus between latest model ensemble members of this cutoff trough beginning to exhibit tropical like characteristics over the next 24 to 48 hours with the feature moving slowly northwestward or westward, parallel to the N Gulf Coast. Our upper ridge by Wed into Thu is still firmly anchored across the Middle Red River Valley during this timeframe so a northwestward turn potentially impacting our region seems very unlikely. A more west to west southwest moving system by the early and middle part of the work week could result in an east to southeasterly wind field across at least our southern most zones which could help to offset our heat slightly. Otherwise, a continuation of heat products appear likely to continue through the end of the upcoming work week. Lots of time to diagnose these possibilities but the key message across our region should continue to be the upcoming heat wave and its potential major to Extreme Heat Risk Impacts this week.

13

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light winds overnight tonight. Some low cloud development will be possible in places around daybreak tomorrow, but confidence of terminal impacts is too low to include in this package. Any clouds that do develop will quickly lift and scatter late tomorrow morning. Winds will be southerly with a slow shift to west/southwesterly flow by 19/12z before shifting back southerly by the end of the period.

/57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 96 77 97 78/ 0 0 0 0 MLU 97 78 99 79/ 0 0 0 0 DEQ 94 75 96 75/ 0 0 0 0 TXK 100 79 101 79/ 0 0 0 0 ELD 95 75 97 76/ 0 0 0 0 TYR 95 76 97 77/ 0 0 0 0 GGG 94 77 96 77/ 0 0 0 0 LFK 96 76 97 76/ 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.