textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Heat index values will continue to approach or briefly exceed the century mark tomorrow afternoon, particularly south of I-20. Sensitive groups should take necessary precautions and limit outdoor exposure.

- More widespread rainfall will return early Sunday and continue through much of Monday, producing accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and leading to a more widespread risk of flash flooding.

- Afternoon heat indices will climb to potentially hazardous values again by the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The decaying complex of showers continues to weaken as it advances south across northeast Texas. Scattered showers are reaching the I- 20 corridor as of this writing, followed by a broad stratiform rain shield which is likewise weakening. Scattered further rainfall will be possible in east Texas, but overall trends have this system diminishing entirely by early evening. Carrying PoPs to represent coverage, after which the region looks to remain largely dry overnight and through the day tomorrow. Hot temperatures will continue, once again aiming for the low to middle 90s, but guidance is indicating dew points will mix out sufficiently to keep heat indices below Advisory criteria through the afternoon. A few scattered showers cannot be ruled out entirely north and east, with ECMWF guidance still depicting a more organized system in central to north Arkansas which may dip far enough south to graze our northeastern zones.

The upper level high over the Gulf Coast states will start to break down somewhat as the weekend begins, with the pressure center drifting offshore and losing definition enough to open the door to impacts from disturbances embedded in the upper level flow. The weekend looks to see another upper level high over northern Mexico and the desert southwest begin to dominate, which together with a ridge axis over the Pacific Northwest will shape upper level steering into a northwest flow regime heading into the new work week which will start to funnel forcing mechanisms into our moisture rich environment beginning Sunday and continuing into early next week. Rain arriving Sunday will start to put a dent in our widespread highs in the 90s, with areawide 80s and even a few 70s Monday and Tuesday, followed by a warming trend for the latter half of the week.

Based on timing guidance, the first round of rainfall looks to arrive overnight Saturday into Sunday, advancing into the ArkLaTex in the predawn hours and spreading areawide through the day Sunday, with significant rainfall chances continuing solidly through most of the day Monday. A Slight Risk for flash flooding is in place areawide Sunday, continuing into Monday for our southeastern zones, with total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible with locally heavy rainfall rates posing a potential hazard.

Recent model runs have struggled with the upper level steering early next week, favoring a pseudo-zonal pattern causing our heavy rainmaker to stagnate. Recent runs are evolving a deeper southward extent of the northwest flow, sweeping the system out of the area by late Monday going into Tuesday, retaining slight rainfall chances for our southeastern zones with a potential reinforcing shot of moisture with a weak disturbance late next week.

/26/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Cigs have largely returned to VFR, even with several sites prevailing VCTS. The intensity of these showers is riding a line between rain vs thunder, but the line is expected to continue weakening as it moves southward. Still expecting some variable winds this evening that will stabilize and calm slightly overnight tonight. Returning cigs tomorrow morning should include KLFK but KTYR and KGGG are borderline as well, which may be a focus for the next package. Cigs should lift and scatter through the day like normal for this time of year. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Spotter activation may be needed Sunday and Monday as heavy rains return to the region. /26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 76 95 78 92 / 10 0 0 60 MLU 76 96 78 94 / 0 0 0 50 DEQ 75 92 75 86 / 20 10 50 70 TXK 77 96 78 90 / 10 0 20 70 ELD 75 94 77 90 / 20 0 10 60 TYR 77 95 78 93 / 10 0 0 60 GGG 76 95 78 92 / 10 0 0 60 LFK 75 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 60

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.