textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1141 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Much above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will continue through at least Tuesday night, before the potential for organized showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday.

- The potential for strong to severe storms will exist Wednesday afternoon and night for Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and portions of Southwest Arkansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1141 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

The late evening sfc analysis indicates a shallow cold front that continues to drift S into Srn and SE OK, Wrn and Cntrl AR, extending from just S of an ADM, to AQR, to S of FSM, and into Cntrl AR near and E of LIT. This bndry remains progged to continue drifting SSE to near the Middle Red River Valley to just NW of McCurtain County OK and remain over Cntrl AR overnight, before becoming stationary by daybreak Monday. The NBM continues to remain bullish with pops along and behind this bndry this evening and overnight, but all has been quiet this evening with the closest convection over portions of extreme NE OK into far Nrn AR with better forcing associated primarily with the mid level trough that will traverse ESE across NCntrl AR overnight into the Mid- South region. Thus, have scaled back pops overnight to mainly Nrn McCurtain County OK and Howard County AR, although honestly, these areas will likely remain dry as the deeper moisture and large scale forcing should remain N of these areas. Also watching an area of low stratus that has developed over SE TX late this evening, which will spread N into E TX after midnight, before lifting/scattering out by late morning/midday Monday. With the front hanging up and lingering just N of the area Monday, much above normal temps will continue areawide, although a deeper cu field over portions of extreme NE TX into SE OK/adjacent SW AR will result in slightly cooler max temps, but did bump NBM temps up 1-2 degrees over much of E TX/N LA/Srn AR where stronger insolation will occur beneath flat ridging aloft as it spreads E into the region in wake of the departing mid level shortwave.

What's left of the stationary front to our N will begin to lift back N and eventually wash out early Tuesday morning, in response to a strengthening SWrly LLJ developing over the Srn Plains/Ozarks. This will yield more of an increase in low stratus over much of the region early Tuesday morning, along with a gradual deepening of low level moisture as the mean flow begins to transition to SW ahead of upper troughing as it traverses the Rockies and the Desert SW. The tightening pressure gradient over the Srn Plains will also yield stronger and potentially gusty Srly winds Tuesday, especially over E TX/SE OK, with the attendant warm/moisture advection resulting in even warmer and (near) record temps over the region. Did again bump NBM temps up 1-2 degrees areawide Tuesday to account for this, as well as the potential strong insolation that should occur as well.

The aforementioned trough will enter the Cntrl Plains by Wednesday, which will induce strong large scale forcing atop the SWrly LLJ axis from the Ozarks SW into Cntrl/Ern OK into N and WCntrl TX, and along a cold front that will be reinforced E across the Ozarks through OK into portions of N TX. Thus, increasing convection will develop through the day as it gradually spreads E through the afternoon through the overnight hours. Dewpoints should increase into the lower to mid 60s by this time, with MLCapes increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg within an increasing area of deep lyr shear from N/NE TX into SE OK/SW AR. This environment should favor the development of scattered strong to severe convection Wednesday afternoon and evening, before gradually weakening with increased stability late. Confidence in severe convection is not entirely high though, as the 00Z GFS remains more amplified/farther S with the troughing than the 00Z ECMWF which is farther N, but regardless, welcome rains are expected over the NW third of the region which will help to potentially ease drought conditions over these areas. Unfortunately, rains look to be more scattered to isolated farther S towards the I-20 corridor, as perturbations linger aloft in the SW flow in wake of this departing trough.

The SW flow aloft remains progged to persist across the region through the remainder of the long term period, as the next longwave trough slowly digs through the Intermountain W, before eventually becoming cut off over the Desert SW (GFS) or even farther SW over Nrn Baja/Ern Pacific (ECMWF). Thus, the NBM is likely too wet for late week, as convection will be largely tied to the extent of Ewd progression of this aforementioned trough before it is able to cut off. Any potential severe threat will also be tied to the trough position, with the greater threat expected farther W closer to the trough axis/attendant sfc frontal position. While confidence in wetting rains beyond Thursday is low, confidence is high that much above normal and near record high temps will continue through late week.

15

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

For the 02/12Z TAFs, drier air and a light but persistent breeze have helped stave off fog development this morning, with VSBYs remaining VFR. Meanwhile, MVFR CIGs have begun to spread and look to linger through the morning before making way for VFR clouds through the afternoon, followed by more widespread MVFR and IFR CIGs west at the tail end of this forecast period ahead of developing showers. Weather conditions look to remain quiet through the course of this forecast period, however, while south winds persist throughout at maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts of up to 15 kts possible, and breezier conditions expected tomorrow.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1141 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Tuesday night. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 82 59 85 65 / 0 0 10 0 MLU 82 56 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 75 56 81 61 / 10 10 20 10 TXK 81 60 84 65 / 10 0 20 10 ELD 81 55 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 81 62 84 66 / 10 0 20 10 GGG 81 60 83 65 / 0 0 20 0 LFK 82 59 83 66 / 0 0 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.