textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- A low-end severe weather threat will exist across our NW zones on Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

- A brief pause in convection is expected from late Thursday into early Friday with very warm temperatures possibly approaching record territory.

- A renewed threat of severe weather will return late Friday into Friday night across NW zones while widespread convection will begin to impact the region this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Despite persistent cloudiness so far today, the current pattern continues to support very spring-like weather as temperatures have still managed to climb well into the 70s and even near 80 degrees in a few areas early this afternoon. Add to that the increasing southerly winds which have pushed dew points into the lower to middle 60s, and it begins to paint the picture of a more active pattern on the horizon as we would expect this time of year. So moving forward into tonight and especially Wednesday and Wednesday night, our primary focus will shift to a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains over the next 12-24 hours.

This shortwave will provide the necessary forcing for showers and thunderstorms to develop over much of the Middle Red River Valley, especially by Wednesday afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. At the sfc, a low is expected to develop across NE OK into the Ozarks with an attendant cold front draped SW from eastern OK into North Cntrl TX. Due to the expansive ridge positioned across the SE CONUS, most of the convection will remain largely focused along and north of the I-30 corridor as the ridge will serve to deflect much of the upper-level energy slightly farther north and west. However, sufficient forcing aloft and ahead of the sfc cold front will exist over the NW portions of NE TX into SE OK and the adjacent counties in SW AR to support a few strong to severe tstms by late Wednesday afternoon through the evening and overnight. As such, SPC has outlined these areas in a Slight Risk per the Day 2 convective outlook. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are primary threats associated with this Slight Risk while the tornado threat is lower but not entirely ruled out. Meanwhile, a Marginal Risk is also included slightly farther to the SE but anticipate a fairly sharp gradient where convection cuts off due to the aforementioned ridge influence.

Moving ahead to Thursday into early Friday, the sfc front which had already struggled to make much progress at all into our NW zones is expected to lift back north as upper-level support is lost. This will keep rain chances largely confined to our NW sections through midday on Friday while we await a stronger and more potent trough to arrive late Friday into Saturday. This will present the next chance of severe weather once again across our NW zones and potentially farther SE as convection becomes much more widespread throughout the upcoming weekend. Despite the less than ideal timing over the weekend, the rainfall is much needed across the entire region. This is also likely to be the start of a more prolonged period of unsettled weather across the region with a cut-off low progged to linger over Baja for several days into at least early next week and possibly longer. Therefore, the forecast will include daily rain chances toward the end of this 7-day period with a general range of 1-3 inches of rainfall likely during this timeframe.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, we are VFR now and decks will continue to scatter and lift during peak heating and into the evening. We will see more IFR/MVFR roll up by midnight for a few E TX sites and areawide overnight and through the remainder of this cycle. Winds will prevail from the S5-15KT with mainly daytime gusts to 20-25KT. Little change in this current pattern until the lows and frontal boundary approach later this week with abundant convection.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1229 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight but may become necessary across the extreme northwest areas of Northeast Texas into Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas late Wednesday into Wednesday night due to the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 65 84 65 84 / 0 10 20 10 MLU 63 84 63 84 / 0 10 0 0 DEQ 60 79 59 79 / 20 50 80 50 TXK 64 84 65 83 / 10 20 50 30 ELD 60 81 61 82 / 0 10 20 10 TYR 66 83 65 84 / 0 40 40 30 GGG 64 84 64 85 / 0 20 30 10 LFK 65 83 65 84 / 0 10 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.