textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 109 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Unseasonably warm and humid conditions ahead of an approaching cold front should result in scattered showers thunderstorms today across much of the area north and west of a line from Alto, TX to Magnolia, AR.

- A strong cold front will move across the area on Friday bringing below normal temperatures and considerably drier air to the region.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are likely Friday and possibly into the weekend due to a combination of breeze conditions and very dry air.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Upper-air analysis indicates a strong ridge centered over the area and a potent trough digging into the Four Corners Region. Southwesterly flow aloft is interacting with a cold front over the Plains to results in a broad area of strong convection from West Texas and into Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri. Another unseasonably warm and humid day is expected for Wednesday with daytime high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s across the area. The upper ridge is expected to broaden and elongate, which should help push the surface high pressure farther east. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop by late morning in the warm air advection regime across East Texas. Increasing intensity is expected as diurnal instability increases, and coverage should expand northeast across much of East Texas and possibly into Southwest Arkansas and extreme Northwest Louisiana. Some of this activity could have gusty winds and locally heavy downpours, but severe weather is not anticipated with this activity.

Farther to the north, a strong cold front and pre-frontal trough will sag farther south across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. This may allow some of the more robust convection associated with the front to affect Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of extreme Southwest Arkansas. I cannot completely ruled out a severe storm in this area, mainly with a damaging wind threat, but the chances should higher farther to the northwest closer to the cold front where the strongest thunderstorms should be located.

A few showers may linger overnight Wednesday into early Thursday in Southeast Oklahoma, but rain chances should diminish as the upper trough breaks into two pieces with one cutting off and drifting towards the Baja Peninsula and the other ejecting northeast and merging with a stronger Canadian trough. Thus, more hot and humid conditions are expected for Thursday with little relief in terms of temperatures.

Late Thursday and into Friday, the strong northern trough will dive southeast into the Great Lakes helping to bring the strongest cold front of the season into the area. Scattered convection is expected along the front Thursday afternoon and evening, but the showers and thunderstorms are expected to rapidly diminish just before reaching our area. A strong surface pressure gradient should result in strong northwest winds behind the front which will quickly sweep southeast through the area Friday morning. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts above 30 mph are possible, which will usher considerably cooler and drier air into the region. Minimum relative humidity values may be too high for a Red Flag Warning, but elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a Fire Danger Statement will probably be needed. Wind speeds should be lower on Saturday, but lower RH values may allow the elevated fire weather conditions to persist.

Besides the fire weather concerns, the big story will be the significantly cooler temperatures for Friday night and going into the weekend. In fact, below normal temperatures are expected areawide. Daytime highs on Saturday will struggle into the 70s, and some locations may remain into the 60s. Overnight lows Saturday and into Sunday should fall into the 40s, and some locations in the terrain of Southeast Oklahoma could dip into the upper 30s.

Temperatures should begin to moderate and warm again Sunday and continuing into the start of the next week. As an upper level ridge remains entrenched, and we remain cut off from deep layer moisture, rain chances should stay low to start the next work week.

/Nuttall/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

For the 14/06Z TAF update, ridging aloft will continue to keep southerly winds and enough moisture in place across the airspace for MVFR/IFR vis/cigs through 18Z before chances of VCTS/-SHRA continue through most of the rest of the period. /16/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 109 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 91 66 89 67 / 10 10 0 0 MLU 93 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 93 65 91 59 / 30 20 0 0 TXK 92 67 91 64 / 30 10 0 0 ELD 93 64 93 63 / 10 10 0 0 TYR 91 68 89 65 / 40 10 0 0 GGG 91 66 90 64 / 30 10 0 0 LFK 91 65 89 66 / 10 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.