textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Warm temperatures will continue Sunday and into the upcoming work week.

- We continue to monitor a change in the upper level weather pattern that will bring with it much needed rain chances to our forecast in the middle and later half of the work week. Message 2

- Unfortunately with those rain chances will come the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms, at least by Wednesday across the northwest half our our region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Another beautiful day across the Four State Region and with the returning southeast winds, temperatures responded with highs ranging from near 80 to the middle 80s across all areas. Warm air advection and returning low level moisture advection will begin overnight and there are some indications of some low level stratus and/or advection fog coming northward from SE TX and SW LA overnight so added this possibility through early morning Sunday near and mainly south of the I-20 Corridor. Otherwise, kept slight chance of showers in the forecast across our far northern zones Tonight through Sunday Night and again, this would be due to weak upper forcing in WNW flow aloft. Southerly winds again for Sunday, maybe a little stronger than what we saw Today but a second day of southerly winds should result in slightly higher afternoon minimum relative humidity values which will keep the wildfire threat level elevated for Sunday.

Flat upper ridging to shift from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains and Lower Miss Valley on Monday into Tuesday as an upper level trough takes shape across the Intermountain West. This is the pattern change we have been talking about for the last several forecast cycles, one that will keep us on the warm side through the upcoming work week but will also introduce rain chances to our region beginning Wednesday and continuing through the upcoming weekend. The above mentioned trough fills before ejecting out into mainly the Central Plains Tue Night into Wed. There will be enough of a positive tilt associated with the ejecting trough with just enough forcing across our northwest half to institute a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms across our northwest half Wed Aftn/Night. Think the key to this likelihood would be the shortwave helping to nudge a cold front/dryline merger our way during the day Wed and it's this feature which would provide the necessary surface forcing for sfc based convective initiation with the aid of instability. ECMWF Ensembles have been more in-line with SPC's thinking of including our northwest region in this severe threat on Wed compared to the GFS Ensembles which are more to our north and west so there is still some uncertainty to this probability by midweek.

The upper trough reloads for Thu into Friday and into the upcoming weekend which will keep our region in deep southwesterly flow aloft through the end of the forecast period and beyond. The key to this flow will be embedded disturbances moving our way to help generate the kind of forcing necessary for showers and thunderstorms because broad-scale forcing will remain locked out west with the longwave trough which will not begin to eject out of the Desert Southwest until well beyond this 7-day forecast period.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

For the 01/12Z TAFs, areas of VSBY reduction have developed across southern and eastern airspace. The only terminals experiencing impacts at this hour are KLFK and KSHV, reflected in TEMPO groups. Will amend if conditions worsen or further impacts develop. Mist and fog expected to dissipate by midmorning, with VFR skies to follow as low and mid level decks give way to high clouds. Similar CIG/VSBY reductions will be possible again by the tail end of this forecast period. Winds will remain southerly throughout at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with isolated gusts of up to 20 kts possible, particularly into east Texas airspace.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Spotter activation is still not expected through the upcoming weekend. However, please continue to relay information on wildfire activity across the Four-State area, to help our first responders protect life and property.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 83 55 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 82 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 80 51 80 54 / 10 20 10 0 TXK 83 57 83 59 / 10 10 10 0 ELD 81 53 82 55 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 83 55 83 61 / 10 0 10 0 GGG 83 53 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 82 55 83 60 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.