textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Dry conditions will continue through Saturday ahead of increasing rain prospects on Sunday.

- Temperatures will continue to climb ahead of a strong cold front late Sunday afternoon that will allow for a return to well below normal temperatures, including overnight lows near and below freezing by Monday morning.

- The influence of a strengthening ridge out west will limit rain chances through the extended forecast, with potential for another prolonged dry streak beyond the 7 day period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Another clear blue sky day is unfolding across the Four State Region as our present weather pattern continues to favor dry conditions locally. At the same time, temperatures have warmed up nicely after a cool morning in the 30's and 40's. Under the influence of surface southerly winds, expect for temperatures to continue warming through Sunday as highs will reach the low 80's for some this weekend. This will all be in advance of a strong cold front associated with a pronounced low pressure system what will work across the CONUS this weekend, bringing snow to the northern half of the country, while a severe weather threat exists along and ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary.

Looking to Sunday, messaging has not changed when compared to yesterday. Expectation remains for a fast moving line of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, with the latest guidance suggesting that the line will exit the region sometime late Sunday night. By Sunday afternoon, a broad warm sector will be present as temperatures climb into the low 80's. Breezy sustained southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with wind gusts nearing 30 mph ahead of the front and through the afternoon. Though this warm sector will be present, sounding analysis reveals a warm layer aloft that will attempt to cap any robust convection ahead of the main line. That being said, as the front begins to slice into the Ark-La-Tex, deep layer flow along the front will support a damaging wind threat as thunderstorms outline the cold front. At the same time, supportive lapse rates and WBZ heights between 8-9kft continue to suggest that hail will also be a concern with any severe storms early on. For now, and until the CAMs can get within range, the lower-res global and regional reflectivity output suggests that what may start briefly discrete will quickly congeal along the front and quickly race eastward across the FA. While hail and wind seem to have taken the primary focus for Sunday, a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

In the wake of the front, the tight pressure gradient will continue to support gusty winds across the local area, with a shift in direction to northwesterly. Again, sustained 15-20 mph winds are expected with gusts between 20-25 mph Monday afternoon. At the same, the airmass quickly trailing the front will begin to influence the region with temperatures Monday morning sitting in the upper 20's and low to mid 30's. Factor in the wind behind the front and feels like temperatures could be in the upper teens to low and middle 20's through daybreak. By the afternoon, highs will attempt to climb into the lower 50's, with a roughly 10 deg F increase in the maxT each day through the end of next week. At the same time, dry weather will prevail through the extended period as the influence of ridging to the west keeps the region quiet and dry. This will be worth monitoring as the airmass in the wake of the boundary will be dry enough to support RH percentages in the low 20's for Monday and Tuesday. Though the extent of the fire weather concern is a touch lower given recent rainfall, any burning should be closely monitored citing the gusty winds and low RH in the forecast.

KNAPP

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR with some cirrus on NW flow this cycle and maybe a little middeck for KLFK at daybreak. We may see brief BR as S winds relax to 5KT or less this evening and then resume near 5-15KT by 15Z. Moistening S flow will ramp up this wknd, esp. on Sunday 10-20G30+KT ahead of a strong early evening fropa. Strong capping limits convection until the frontal boundary bears down with T'storms possible that aftn/eve. We'll shift to gusty NW overnight and into Monday as sharply colder air arrives. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 51 77 60 83 / 0 0 0 50 MLU 47 77 58 84 / 0 0 0 30 DEQ 44 76 54 76 / 0 0 0 70 TXK 51 78 59 81 / 0 0 0 60 ELD 46 76 55 81 / 0 0 0 60 TYR 53 79 61 84 / 0 0 0 30 GGG 49 78 59 83 / 0 0 0 40 LFK 50 78 60 84 / 0 0 0 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.