textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Continued rainfall is likely through the day Monday and Tuesday, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor. As confidence increases, a Flood Watch may become necessary.

- Most areas could see a break in rain on Wednesday and Thursday and warm back up into the 90s during the afternoons.

- Widespread rain could return to the forecast late this week depending on the movements of a disturbance in the Gulf.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The MCS that we've been tracking has moved into the region this morning and become less organized. At the time of writing, some light showers remain along the cold front that initially was the focus for the MCS. The heavier showers are further south along I-20 along the main outflow boundary from this morning's activity. There are also other pop-up showers developing to over most of the southern half of the region, which will likely interact with the outflow boundary and the secondary line of showers through the afternoon hours. While the activity is expected to remain subsevere, there may be some brief severe hazards with cell mergers. There is a greater focus on the potential for localized flooding, especially in poor drainage and urban areas. This rain has also kept temperatures lower than previously forecasted, so I've made some adjustments to today's highs.

Rain is increasingly likely to remain in the forecast for the next several days. The front that was the original driver of the MCS will continue to push southward through this afternoon and stall overnight. This stationary front could act as a lifting mechanism for redevelopment tomorrow. QPF estimations over the past several days have been somewhat inconsistent on the location of showers, but the most recent guidance is favoring areas along and south of I-20 for additional rainfall on Monday and Tuesday. Recent dry soils and general low water in surrounding waterways should be able to handle today's rain, but there is some concern about the repeated rainfall over the following days. A Flood Watch may be necessary within the next several forecast packages if models continue to agree.

Longer-range models have an upper-level low from southern TX moving northeast toward the Ark-La-Miss on Wednesday, which could keep rain chances in the forecast for our south and eastern zones even as the stationary front is able to move. Much of the region is expected to warm up a bit during the brief break in rain, likely climbing back into the 90s Thursday afternoon. Temperatures could get knocked back into the 80s Friday with more widespread rain associated with a shortwave trough. There could also be interactions with the disturbance in the Gulf, but conditions that far out are still very uncertain.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

For the 14/18Z TAFs, this morning's complex of showers and thunderstorms has been diminishing as it advances south past the I- 20 corridor, colliding with a broad area of scattered showers and storms increasing in coverage. Associated precip carried with VCSH/VCTS at impacted terminals this afternoon. BKN and SCT mid to high clouds will linger through the evening before deteriorating to IFR after midnight with renewed rainfall chances as another wave of showers impacts our east Texas terminals before daybreak. The presence of this surface boundary will result in variable winds at maximum sustained speeds of 7 to 12 kts, becoming light overnight.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Spotter activation may be needed along and south of I-20 this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 73 80 71 85 / 80 90 60 50 MLU 73 81 70 84 / 80 90 70 60 DEQ 68 78 65 86 / 60 50 10 0 TXK 70 79 68 86 / 60 50 20 10 ELD 70 79 66 86 / 60 80 40 30 TYR 73 81 70 86 / 80 90 40 40 GGG 73 81 70 86 / 80 90 50 50 LFK 74 84 72 85 / 80 90 80 80

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.