textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Some improvement to the soggy Holiday Weekend forecast in the wake of the severe early push this morning.

- The Flood Watch remains for now with more convection lifting inland and our soon to be stationary upper low arriving Sunday.

- The parade of upper impulses continues for May with a decent cold front arriving for a nice little break by early June.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A wide range of temperatures currently from lower 80s in deep east TX to upper 60s and fog along Hwy 167 from Ruston to El Dorado. The morning MCS is lifting over NE LA at this time and all of our Severe Thunderstorm watch has been cancelled early. The sun is shinning over E TX and will spread across I-49 soon with highs from upper 70s in our far east to muggy mid 80s along and west of I-49. The HRRR is showing some late day or early evening development on a spoke of the departing MCS from near Texarkana to Shreveport this evening. Otherwise, just a few spotty pop ups here and there late day with the sea breeze having a hard time moving into our southern tier of Co/Pa late today.

Our lows will remain with a wide range of 60s with light winds and then highs on Sunday in the upper 70s and lower 80s for a pleasant Sunday. There will be more convection arriving overnight and throughout the day tomorrow with the GFS and NAM in good agreement on high chance to occasional likely coverage of thunderstorms. The WPC fades their Marginal risk for excessive eastward and then back west again for Memorial Day, but the Slight Risk is now over coastal TX/LA and into the southern half of MS, so for now keeping out of our area for Sunday. The SPC continues a General Risk which indicates dangerous lightning and gusty to near 40 mph from additional convection for the balance of our Holiday. Of course subject to change as conditions warrant. So, keep in mind while enjoying the great outdoors and this unofficial start to summer, If Thunder roars, go indoors.

The short work week will continue with convection for all of our Four-State area as the one upper low stalls on Sunday, and lingers toward midweek. Just as the kicker arrives in the SW flow to expand coverage again through midweek. So more needed rainfall remains in the offing with the above average wet pattern likely to finish out the month. Both the GFS and ECMWF have a back door front arriving down the MS River Valley during this timeframe next weekend. And that should bring an end to the wet pattern briefly as we turn the page of the calendar. And perhaps get out of May with little if any 90 degrees readings as the clouds and rain continue to make for a below average temperature range. The CPC 8-14 day outlook carries this same pattern over below average readings and above average rainfall for the first week of June.

/24/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

For the 23/18z TAF update...Radar imagery is still showing some showers and thunderstorms moving through most of our Louisiana zones that are gradually showing a weakening trend. I have removed mention out of some of the terminals across our western zones, although we are seeing some new development out near Waco Texas that could move towards our region and could require us to make some changes. Otherwise, I made mention of some BR for most terminals tonight given the rain that has fallen, the main question is how far the visibility will drop and how low the ceilings will come down. I do have fairly widespread MVFR to IFR conditions with a few terminals dropping into LIFR category. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Spotter activation gets a reprieve for a while, but may be called upon again during this holiday weekend and during the new work week. /24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 68 80 68 81 / 30 40 50 70 MLU 68 80 67 82 / 40 60 80 80 DEQ 63 82 64 79 / 30 30 20 60 TXK 67 82 66 80 / 30 30 30 70 ELD 65 79 65 79 / 40 50 60 80 TYR 68 81 67 81 / 30 30 20 50 GGG 68 81 67 81 / 30 30 40 60 LFK 69 80 67 83 / 50 40 40 60

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for LAZ010-011-017>020-022.

OK...None. TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ152-153-165>167.