textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- A brief warming trend is expected over much of the region Friday, before sharply colder conditions return Saturday with the passage of a cold front. - Dry conditions should continue this weekend, with a prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures expected Saturday night/Sunday morning.

- Near to below normal temperatures will continue to open up the new work week before milder conditions return, along with the potential for much needed rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The late evening sfc analysis indicates that sfc ridging has shifted E into far SE LA and the Nrn Gulf, with Srly low level winds having recently returned on its backside across E TX and portions of N LA. These returning winds have been a bit delayed which have allowed for temps to reach/fall beyond the originally forecast lows, but a slow rise in temps is expected here soon as winds begin to increase in response to a tightening pressure gradient developing over portions of the Srn Plains and Ozarks region. Meanwhile, our next anticipated arctic cold front is plunging S into Ern CO/Nrn KS attm, with multiple sfc obs measuring wind gusts of 45-65+ kts and a wall of BLDU, along the base of a longwave trough now digging through the Plains. This front will quickly shift S into the Srn Plains by daybreak Friday, and enter the NW zones of extreme SE TX/NE TX/SW AR by mid- morning. The approach of the front overnight will yield the development of a 45-50kt SWrly LLJ, which will begin to partially mix down to the sfc through the day Friday. These SW winds and the potential for compressional heating along the front will result in milder conditions especially over Lower E TX/N LA, before the cold air and attendant cold advection deepens enough to spill farther S into our area. The majority of the hi-res guidance and GFS suggest some low level moisture will advect NE into Lower E TX/N LA ahead of the front Friday afternoon, but remain too shallow for -SHRA development, before the front clears the SE zones by or shortly after 00Z Saturday.

Cold and dry advection will increase in earnest during the evening/overnight hours Friday night, with the Cntrl CONUS longwave trough reloading Saturday as an attendant jet streak works S through the Rockies and into the Plains. Elevated moisture will increase along the base of this trough and into the region Saturday, although the post-frontal air mass will continue to dry and deepen beneath these AC cigs through the day. In fact, sfc dewpoints should fall into the teens across much of the area, with single digits possible across NE TX/SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR. While partial thicknesses suggest that the cold air will deepen aloft to help support -SN development, various forecast soundings indicate that overall moisture and forcing will be lacking within the dendritic growth zone, with the depth of the dry air increasing from late afternoon into the evening with the passage of the attendant mid and upper level trough. Given the good agreement amongst the various progs, and the extent and depth of the very dry post-frontal air, believe any sprinkles or light snow flurries will be a long stretch, and thus have removed mention from the forecast.

The elevated cigs will quickly scatter and clear out from NW to SE with the trough passage Saturday night, as arctic ridging building S into the Srn Plains and the Four State Region. This will set the stage for the coldest temps of the winter with a prolonged period of subfreezing temps expected areawide Saturday night through mid to late morning Sunday. In fact, a hard freeze is expected across SE OK and adjacent sections of SW AR Saturday night, before moderating temps return Sunday once the sfc ridge shifts SE into the Lower MS Valley/Nrn Gulf. Another reinforcing shot of colder air will mix S into the area Monday/Monday night, thus maintaining near to below normal temps through Tuesday. The dry NW flow in wake of the departing longwave trough should finally begin to flatten out over TX and the Gulf Coast states Tuesday, with an influx of Pacific moisture overspreading the region by midweek, in time as low level moisture begins to increase from the Wrn Gulf. Hence, much needed rainfall appears to finally return to the area for mid and late week, although exact timing and potential amounts remain uncertain attm.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Except for the possibility of high clouds streaming across the region today, VFR conditions to prevail areawide through the terminal forecast ending 17/12Z. southwest wind 10 to 15 knots and gusty this morning to transition to west and then northwest this afternoon as a cold front moves across the region. Otherwise, winds to relax to 5 to 10 knots tonight. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1223 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through early next week. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 65 35 50 25 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 67 36 50 24 / 10 10 0 10 DEQ 56 27 44 15 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 59 33 46 21 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 61 32 46 20 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 62 33 49 24 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 64 32 49 22 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 70 37 51 26 / 0 0 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.