textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions will maintain elevated fire danger concerns today with increasing SE winds and low afternoon RH values.

- A pattern change will bring a low-end risk of heavy rain and severe storms across our far W/NW zones by Thursday, with rain chances increasing areawide through the end of this week.

- Cooler temperatures are expected to follow by this weekend with a cold front expected to shift south and usher in the coolest air so far this fall season by the first full week of October.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

One more day to go with widespread lower to mid 90s is expected today as upper ridging departs to the east, signaling a coming pattern shift for late week into the upcoming weekend with rain chances increasing areawide. In the meantime, today's weather concern centers on the ongoing fire danger as hot temperatures will contribute to low afternoon RH in the 30-45% range. Add to that the increasing SE winds today, and you have the recipe for rapid fire starts and wildfire growth from any flames or sparks due to critically dry fuels and parched vegetation. Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for today across our entire region.

Moving into Wednesday night and Thursday, the much advertised pattern shift referenced above will begin to manifest as tropical Pacific moisture from the remnants of Polo continue to lift NE across the eastern half of Texas. The surging moisture plume will quickly be absorbed by an eastward advancing upper trough shifting from the Desert SW into the Southern Rockies, gradually spreading farther east across the Middle Red River Valley into our region from Wednesday night throughout the day on Thursday. The axis of heaviest rainfall will likely set up invof of the I-35 corridor to our west but may extend as far east as our northwesternmost zones in NE TX and SE OK where a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall has been highlighted for Thursday and Thursday night, before expanding slightly farther east on Friday. In addition, the threat of some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts generally occupies the same areas in NE TX and SE OK on Thursday into Thursday night.

As we move through Friday and into the weekend, remnant moisture will then interact with a cold front advancing southward into the region. This front will provide additional forcing for increasing convection across the entire region on Friday into Saturday before the front eventually clears the region late in the weekend. Then a stronger reinforcing cold front will arrive late Sunday night into Monday to usher any lingering moisture and associated convection southward along the coast early in the new work week by Monday into Tuesday.

Forecast thinking hasn't really deviated in terms of rainfall totals as they still appear to range widely from west to east with as much as 1-3 inches across parts of NE TX and SE OK while areas farther east in SW AR and North LA are likely to see around an inch or less. Isolated higher amounts are certainly possible within any of these areas, and amounts are still somewhat in flux given forecast uncertainties on the strength and location of the ridge axis. However, the latest guidance does suggest less of an influence from the ridge as it shifts east along the SE Atlantic seaboard this weekend. Therefore, the eastern extent of the heavy rain axis may shift deeper into NE TX and SE OK before leaving a sharp gradient of much lighter amounts farther east. Therefore, a Flood Watch may be considered for these areas with future updates. What is more certain is that cooler air will gradually infiltrate the region from the north through the weekend and into early next week, possibly leading to the coolest air so far this fall season for the first full week of October.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

For the 30/06Z TAF cycle...High clouds a plenty across our airspace and as we go through the predawn hours, should see some MVFR ceilings creep northward and encompass at least the TYR and LFK terminals. Any MVFR ceilings should be temporary however with VFR conditions returning near or beyond 15z. Strong pressure gradient in place for Wed so have added SSE wind gusts upwards of 18-25kts across all but the ELD and MLU terminals through mid morning Wed and continuing through the day. Will address the possibility of returning MVFR ceilings across our NE TX terminals with the 12z TAF package later this morning.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 95 74 93 73 / 0 0 20 40 MLU 96 71 95 72 / 0 0 20 10 DEQ 95 71 89 66 / 0 10 70 80 TXK 94 73 91 69 / 0 0 40 70 ELD 95 70 94 70 / 0 0 20 30 TYR 94 74 91 71 / 0 10 60 80 GGG 96 73 93 70 / 0 0 50 60 LFK 93 72 91 71 / 10 0 50 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.