textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- The potential for more organized strong to severe thunderstorms will increase late tonight and especially Wednesday across much of the region.

- A drier and cooler airmass will move into the region by the end of the work week, with dry conditions remaining through at least the first half of the upcoming weekend.

- Another cold front will bring more cooler temperatures by the first of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Dry conditions have settled across the region this past evening and will likely continue through the overnight period. Low clouds will move into the region, with morning lows only falling to around 70 degrees. The low clouds are expected to hang over the area today ahead of our next approaching storm system. This highly advertised closed upper trough over the northern Baja region of northern Mexico will continue to push eastward towards the region today. Ahead of the trough, weak disturbances will move along the southwesterly upper flow. This will trigger some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly along and north of a line from Tyler TX...to Texarkana...to Hope AR. We could see some strong to severe convection with this activity, as the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a slight risk for the aforementioned areas. With steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail will be the greatest threat, but damaging winds and even a tornado can't be ruled out. Across the remainder of the region, there is a slight chance for some isolated showers or thunderstorms with diurnal heating.

As we move into tonight and the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, our focus will turn to the approaching closed upper trough. This trough will be traversing out of West Texas into Central Texas. A linear line of storms is expected to develop along the leading edge of the trough and eventually push into the region throughout the day on Wednesday. A severe threat will still remain with this system, with damaging winds being the primary threat. Although this system will bring much needed rain, there could be an excessive rainfall risk, as locally heavy rainfall is possible. We could see some wrap around precipitation on the backside of the trough late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning before dry conditions settle across the region. Breezy northerly winds will bring in a noticeably cooler airmass, with morning lows on Thursday and Friday mornings in the 40s. Afternoon highs on Thursday will top out in the mid to upper 60s. Dry conditions will remain through the end of the work week into the weekend, with a gradual warming trend.

Long-term progs are in good agreement that rain chances will return by Sunday evening as cold front moves across the region. Dry and much cooler conditions are expected in wake of the front, with highs in the upper 50/lower 60s for the first of next week. Progs are also suggesting near freezing temperatures, as lows could possibly fall into the low to mid 30s by Tuesday morning.

/20/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings currently across our airspace to begin the 12z TAF package. Feel like those VFR conditions will become MVFR before we see improvement across all of our airspace by late morning and especially this afternoon. Improvement could be hampered by afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms that could impact the TYR/GGG/TXK and ELD terminals however. All terminals should see prevailing VFR conditions outside convection early this evening but as we go into the predawn hours Wednesday, a complex of storms moving our way from N TX will possibly begin impacting the TYR/GGG and TXK terminals once again just prior to sunrise Wed morning. Look for south winds near 10-15kts today with some higher pressure gradient gusts, especially across our NE TX terminals as well as the TXK and SHV terminals.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through Wednesday. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 81 68 76 49 / 30 30 80 70 MLU 81 68 78 49 / 20 10 80 80 DEQ 77 61 70 39 / 50 80 80 30 TXK 79 67 72 46 / 40 80 80 50 ELD 81 65 74 44 / 30 30 80 70 TYR 79 66 72 46 / 40 80 80 50 GGG 80 67 73 46 / 30 60 80 60 LFK 81 67 75 49 / 20 30 80 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.