textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect through Friday night. Very low humidity and gusty winds will combine to produce elevated fire weather conditions Friday, possibly continuing into the weekend.

- A powerful dry cold front will arrive overnight tonight into tomorrow, bringing much cooler temperatures, significantly drier air and gusty northwest winds.

- Behind the front, Saturday will see cooler than average temperatures, followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

By this time tomorrow, temperatures will be a good 10 to 20 degrees cooler across the ArkLaTex, with the passage of the advertised powerful cold front. This evening will find the upper level trough over the Dakotas and Minnesota absorbing the remnants of the closed low responsible for this week's active weather across the Plains and Ozarks, pushing eastward over the Midwest overnight and into tomorrow, all the while amplifying south and west, to swing its attendant cold front down the southern Plains and Deep South all the way to the Gulf Coast by tomorrow evening.

In advance of the approaching front, a few scattered showers cannot be ruled out this evening across southeast Oklahoma and portions of east Texas. Any rainfall which does develop will taper off overnight towards morning, and accumulations are expected to be negligible.

Overnight, temperatures will drop to lows in the middle 60s across the southern ArkLaTex, entering the 50s north with the approach and arrival of the front. As with last night's package, the latest guidance is favoring more progressive forward motion of the trough and surface boundary, placing the wind shift heralding the front's impending arrival as soon as midnight in southeastern Oklahoma, with gusty north-northwesterly winds spreading south towards I-20 by daybreak, and areawide by midmorning. The dewpoint gradient indicates the much drier airmass will follow at a slight delay, reaching our northwestern zones just before daybreak, enveloping the entire ArkLaTex in very dry conditions by early afternoon. This combination of elevated winds of sustained speeds of 10 to 20 kts and gusts of up to 30 kts possible with dangerously low relative humidity values in the 25% to 35% range, together with prolonged drought and critically dry fuels has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the entire CWA Friday.

By Saturday, the trough axis will have pushed well to the east, with remnant northwest flow over the ArkLaTex, and broadly defined ridging taking shape further into the weekend. Northwest flow aloft will begin the weekend, while surface winds become northeasterly. As of this writing, winds on Saturday will be significantly less elevated than those on Friday. While dry conditions will remain, the relative lack of prolonged gusty winds as a factor has motivated holding off at this time on a potential extension of the Red Flag Warning, which may be considered if guidance points to elevated winds continuing into Saturday.

Southwest flow aloft will expedite a warming trend, from highs in the 60s on Saturday to 70s on Sunday and 80s making a widespread return by early to middle next week. The continuing proximity of upper level ridging and associated subsidence will inhibit any active weather, with dry and warm conditions expected through to the end of this extended forecast period.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

For the 15/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions have returned across all of our airspace early this afternoon with a modest cu field around 3.5Kft at most terminals. Moving into this evening and overnight, a strong cold front will begin to overtake the region with gusty N/NW winds impacting all sites throughout the remainder of the TAF period. In addition, some MVFR to low VFR cigs are expected ahead of the front and may linger a bit beyond fropa on Friday morning. Otherwise, expect rough chop and occasional turbulence as winds veer north with fropa and speeds climb to near 20 kts with gusts of 30 kts or higher on Friday.

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FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A powerful dry cold front will arrive in area fire districts overnight into the day Friday, with unseasonably cooler temperatures to follow. The airmass behind the front will be extremely dry, plunging relative humidity values into the 25 to 35 percent range by Friday afternoon. Concurrently, north-northwest winds will maintain sustained speeds of 10 to 25 mph through the day, with gusts of up to 35 mph possible. The passage of this front is not expected to produce any significant wetting rainfall to improve our already critically dry fuels. On top of the prolonged and worsening drought, these conditions merit an areawide Red Flag Warning, in effect through Friday night.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Spotter activation may be needed during the day Friday in the event of wildfire development.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 64 71 50 68 / 0 10 0 0 MLU 65 77 50 70 / 0 10 0 0 DEQ 51 67 42 69 / 20 10 0 0 TXK 59 68 46 68 / 0 10 0 0 ELD 60 73 46 69 / 0 10 0 0 TYR 59 68 48 67 / 20 10 0 0 GGG 59 70 48 68 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 64 75 51 70 / 10 10 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.