textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- The third week of November will begin cold and wet with 0.5-1.5 inches of rainfall lingering into early Monday, mostly distributed west of I-49.

- Drier and warmer conditions will return through the middle of the week, pushing temperature maximums/minimums back to near seasonable lower 70s/lower 40s, respectively.

- Showers will return by the end of the week into the weekend as milder conditions return.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

The next chance of rain is on the way to the Four State region in the next 12 to 36 hours, as a result of mid-level troughing that is currently beginning to emerge from the Intermountain West. Aloft, northwesterly flow has become more zonal as lee cyclogenesis begins and longwave troughing gradually pulls eastward, which (in conjunction with surface ridging) will set the stage for the mid-level trough to propagate across the Southern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi River Valley with our primary rain chance in the next 7 days most likely producing 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall in a westward gradient (mostly west of I-49).

Medium range guidance suggests ridging that redevelops and builds behind the mid-level trough after Monday and through the middle of next week. The more longitudinal ridging shape that will return reinforces a southwesterly flow pattern, supporting a gradual warm-up for temperature maximums/minimums back above normal by next weekend with upper 70s/mid-to-upper 50s, respectively. Long range guidance suggests gradual re-moistening of the atmosphere into the weekend, with embedded shortwaves in this southwest flow boosting the potential for an additional half-inch of rainfall. Not much in the way of drought-relief is expected from overall rainfall totals, however it could briefly pause drought development in western zones. /16/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 442 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Cirrus and high AC ceilings will gradually lower from west to east across our airspace overnight and through the day Sunday as we saturate the air column from the top-down. Did introduce VCSH at TYR, GGG and LFK terminals as early as 08z and would not be surprised to see this precip come in and saturate down a little quicker than this. Have prevailing MVFR ceilings and VSBYs with SHRA at the TYR...GGG and LFK terminals beginning at 12z and gradually have these conditions working their way eastward towards TXK and SHV terminals by afternoon. Did not have these restrictions making it as far as the ELD...MLU terminals as the saturation process will be a little harder to come by. Cannot rule out IFR ceilings across our NE TX terminals by late afternoon as well. Look for NE to E winds with speeds at or below 10kts through the TAF period with some higher gusts possible across our NE TX terminals near and after sunrise on Sunday.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /33/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 45 53 44 63 / 10 80 60 10 MLU 40 60 44 64 / 0 30 50 0 DEQ 39 52 39 63 / 20 80 60 0 TXK 43 52 43 61 / 10 80 60 0 ELD 36 57 39 64 / 0 50 50 0 TYR 44 49 44 59 / 80 100 50 10 GGG 42 50 43 60 / 40 100 60 10 LFK 45 55 44 60 / 50 100 80 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.