textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are lifting N/NW into the ArkLaTex and will continue to organize a bit while moving N.

- The outlook for the weekend remains very favorable for continued deep convection, primarily enhanced by heating.

- The SW flow pattern aloft will swing a few different systems in over the MidSouth. The disturbances will enhance coverage with each passing system and the last one will slow & stall Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

The sea breeze push is generally a little early with some of the convective leaders of the pack lifting across I-20 at this time near Longview and Monroe. There is a weak upper low out SE of Houston and over the Gulf and spreading abundant cirrus inland. This cloud coverage is no doubt limiting instability and keeping the mercury on a slow climb this afternoon. The HRRR is looking fairly well at initializing convection this afternoon with the weakness out over the Gulf expected to help to lift in additional convection inland before sunset. Just a little gusty wind near downpours and isolated strikes are becoming a little more widespread. No changes to our General Risk from SPC and the WPC maintains with their 20Z update. And we continue with a Marginal risk for excessive which may pick up later on this evening as we rain out along our stationary frontal boundary.

We are still hanging too drier mid 60 dew points over the Natural State, while elsewhere numbers are bumping into the lower 70s along and south of I-20 moisture wise. The much advertised parade of shortwave activity will see a bigger float arriving this weekend as a weak upper low 579dam that will settle over NE Texas by Sunday morning. Until then, we can expect another good round of diurnal activity for Friday and again on Saturday. And the GFS shows some lingering nocturnal activity Saturday evening and overnight as a weak surface low reflection also materializes during the overnight hours over the heart of our Four-State area.

As far our Holiday proper is concerned, this upper low will have a dry side and wet side with focus remaining over much of our area along and east of I-49, while parts of Texas look to see a bit less coverage late this holiday weekend. This is also depicted well in the WPC EROs for day 3 and 4, shifting their Slight Risk areas across TX and into LA for Memorial Day. Overall, our QPF may be slightly less than what we saw a couple of days ago, but the Risk remains, as rain rates will remain a concern with slow movement of convection around the stalled upper low. At least when compared to previous runs which was keeping more coverage areawide. However, parts of E TX will fill in once again with more QPF signal as the Baja, deeper upper low in the pattern begins to spread over Texas during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. And likewise, this upper low is also now modeled to stall over N TX and linger much convection for our interest to persist for the remainder of this month. /24/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

For the 21/18Z TAF period, MVFR cigs continue to largely dominate our airspace this afternoon with slight improvement toward low VFR status over the few hours. HSpotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours. However, some excessive rainfall and an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out. /20/owever, increasing convection by mid to late afternoon may hamper those improving cloud heights so have held onto some lower cigs with tempo TSRA as convection shifts northward throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours. Some gusty winds may accompany this convection so have accounted for that as well with higher tempo gusts with TSRA during mid to late afternoon into early evening. Otherwise, convection should gradually diminish overnight with low stratus cigs bringing MVFR/IFR conditions back once again. Will also watch to watch for patchy fog development as well, but low forecast confidence precludes low vsby reductions in this TAF cycle outside of convection.

/19/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours for damaging wind or hail. However, the risk of excessive rainfall and an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

/24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 67 83 67 84 / 80 40 20 70 MLU 67 83 68 85 / 90 70 30 70 DEQ 63 80 61 81 / 90 40 40 60 TXK 66 82 65 84 / 90 40 40 60 ELD 64 81 64 83 / 90 50 30 60 TYR 66 84 67 83 / 80 30 30 80 GGG 66 84 67 84 / 80 30 30 70 LFK 67 85 68 84 / 60 40 20 80

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.