textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

- The roller coaster in temperatures continues through the short term period with a return to cooler/below normal conditions today before a sharp warming trend commences Friday.

- Another reinforcing cold front will move through the region Friday, with a sharp cooldown expected Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Cold advection is underway tonight in wake of the cold fropa earlier today, which has already pushed into the NCntrl Gulf late this evening. The post-frontal cu field that lingers over ECntrl LA will clear the SE zones over the next few hours, although some cirrus along the base of the longwave trough will quickly traverse SE across Srn AR/NE LA through a portion of the overnight hours. Despite the ample sun expected today, cooler and more seasonal temps will return, with winds gradually decoupling ahead of sfc ridging building S into the Srn Plains. This ridge will begin to shift over the area this afternoon, before moving over SE LA and the Middle Gulf coast tonight. Thus, SSW low level winds will return on the backside of the ridge, which will be more reflected with milder temps returning tonight. In fact, a 45-50kt SWrly LLJ is progged to develop late Thursday night, ahead of our next cold front that will be reinforced SE through the region Friday, ahead of a shortwave trough that will wrap around a developing closed low over the Nrn Great Lakes. Some compressional warming may occur ahead of this next fropa Friday, especially as it moves into Lower E TX/N LA a little later in the day. Any low level moisture return will remain primarily over SE TX into Cntrl/S LA and hence, dry conditions are expected again with this next front.

Additional energy aloft will help to deepen the troughing regime over the Plains/MS Valley Saturday, with elevated moisture expected to round the base of the trough through the day. Cold advection is expected through the day, with the various progs suggesting teen dewpoints advecting S across the region, indicative of the extent of dry air near and just above the sfc expected with the fropa. The 00Z run of the GFS suggests that adequate forcing along the base of the deepening longwave trough will yield areas of -RA development from the AC cigs especially during the afternoon over portions of E TX/N LA, but is much too aggressive in saturating the column and the bndry lyr from the top down especially given the extent of very dry air that will advect S in wake of the fropa earlier in the day. This model is certainly the outlier, with the NAM much slower/drier as is the ECMWF for the afternoon/evening. It's not out of the realm of possibility to see some areas of -RA/sprinkles during the afternoon, which will induce evaporative cooling of the column which has been reflected with cooler sfc temps than what the NBM had previously advertised Tuesday. Thus, the column may cool sufficiently enough for the potential for a few flurries to fall over portions of Lower E TX/N LA S of I-20 Saturday evening before much drier air aloft deepens with the longwave trough passage late Saturday night. However, confidence remains low that this will occur as it will depend on the strength of the mid level forcing and its ability to overcome the very dry low level air mass in place. Have continued to keep the forecast dry for this time period, with no impacts expected for our area. However, the potential for snow impacts may increase farther SE across portions of S LA into Srn MS/AL but will depend on the timing of the cooling column with the trough's arrival.

Below normal temps will continue areawide Sunday under the dry NW flow aloft, before some modification to temps begin to start the new work week in wake of the trough's departure. Another reinforcement of cooler/drier air may spill into the region later in the day Monday into Monday night, with the return to below normal temps Tuesday. With the Gulf remaining cut off and forcing non-existent, dry conditions will continue, with temps moderating again by midweek, but still relatively cool. The long range progs suggest that some moisture return could occur by late next week, but confidence remains low attm for the potential for significant wetting rains.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 332 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

All is quiet across our airspace with northwest winds prevailing near or just below 10kts. Sfc ridging will quickly move across our region today allowing for winds to become variable by midday and returning out of the south by this afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. The pressure gradient will really begin tightening up after midnight when we could get a few gusts near 20kts or so from the south across our NE TX terminals. Also, look for increasing mid and high cloud cover overnight tonight as well.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1205 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through this weekend. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 54 41 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 51 35 66 35 / 0 0 0 10 DEQ 51 30 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 54 38 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 51 33 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 56 43 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 55 42 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 57 39 70 37 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.