textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- A fast moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to push across the Ark-La-Tex this afternoon, where damaging wind, hail and tornadoes will all be possible.

- Behind the front, sustained 15-25 mph winds, with gusts up to and exceeding 35-45 mph, are expected into Monday morning.

- A cold and dry airmass will quickly move in tonight, resulting in overnight lows near and below freezing both Monday and Tuesday morning, with highs back to seasonal by mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

An agitated cumulus field is unfolding across the Ark-La-Tex this afternoon as our long awaited cold front, and associated severe weather threat is quickly approaching. Upstream observations across central Oklahoma and north Texas show peak non-convective wind gusts over 50 mph. This front will continue to race east as it will intercept an airmass with temperatures quickly warming into the upper 70's and low 80's, with surface Td's in the lower 60's. Hourly mesoanalysis across the region suggests that effective bulk shear values are around 40kt, with a 45-50kt LLJ sitting overhead. Tucked under the LLJ, sfc-1km SRH values are sitting between 100-200 m2/s2 with sfc-3km between 200-300 m2/s2. These values may decrease a tick or two as the jet slides east over the next few hours, but that being said, as the cold front enters the region, an environment conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms will exist, where all modes of severe weather will be possible, with tornado watches likely this afternoon.

Though timing has been consistent across the hi-res and CAMs over the last 12-24 hours, uncertainty still remains when it comes to where thunderstorm initiation will occur. Output from the HRRR, RRFS, and NAM continue to suggest that the boundary should remain free of deeply rooted convection as it enters into McCurtain County, OK. This will change as the front approaches the I-49 corridor where dynamics will become more conducive to support deeply rooted thunderstorms buying the cap erodes, supporting the aforementioned hazards. The SHV 18z upper air balloon launch reveals that 800mb temperatures sit between 17.5-18 deg C, thus suggesting a cap remains in place. A 20z launch will help further evaluate the cap as the boundary approaches. It is important to note that while the local SPC tornado hazards sit on the lower end of the scale across the central and eastern zones, if a thunderstorm can become deeply rooted and mature as the cap erodes, a tornado or two, potentially strong, can't be ruled out. At the same time, exceptionally strong lapse rates will support large hail with initial semi-discrete development prior to later QLCS formation where a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat will become the dominate hazards. This axis of convection will quickly race east along the front, with the latest timing analysis suggesting the front should exit the region around or shortly after 10pm.

Behind the front, and similar to what is being experienced ahead of the boundary, gusty northwesterly winds will continue across the Ark- La-Tex through the overnight where wind gusts between 40-45 mph will be possible. Already, Shreveport Regional Airport has peaked with a 46 mph non-thunderstorm gradient based wind gust ahead of the boundary. This may result in brief power outages, along with the displacement of unsecured or loose items outdoors. At the same time, a strong airmass will filter in, quickly dropping temperatures overnight locally into the 20's and 30's. As a result, a Freeze Warning remains in effect across portions of northeast Texas, southwest Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma. Expect for another Freeze Warning to be issued for Tuesday morning with the evening forecast package as Tuesday AM temperatures will sit at or below freezing for most if not all. This will be an extremely dry airmass that will settle in to start the new week, with RH percentages in the upper teens and low 20's and Td's in the single digits to low teens. With this in mind, fire danger will need monitored closely.

Looking long range, rain chances will be non-existent as influence from ridging out west builds in, supporting dry conditions and rapidly warming temperatures as highs enter the 80's as early as Thursday.

KNAPP

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the 16/00Z TAF period. A narrow but broken line of strong to severe convection along a strong cold front will quickly shift ESE across the remainder of Deep E TX/N LA/SCntrl AR through mid-evening, exiting the MLU terminal by 03Z. Cigs along/ahead of this convection will range from 4-6kft, but strong wind gusts up to 45kts will be possible. Behind the convection/front, cigs will quickly lift, with AC/cirrus cigs increasing late this evening overnight, before diminishing by/shortly after daybreak Monday. NW winds in wake of the fropa will remain strong and gusty, with the strongest gusts up to 40kts possible this evening through a portion of the overnight hours before gradually weakening. NW winds 15-25kts with gusts to 40kts this evening will weaken slightly to around 15kts with gusts to 30 kts after 10Z. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Spotter activation will be needed this evening across portions of Deep East Texas and North Louisiana.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 37 50 31 59 / 30 0 0 0 MLU 37 50 29 56 / 80 0 0 0 DEQ 26 45 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 32 49 29 60 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 31 48 26 56 / 40 0 0 0 TYR 34 50 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 35 50 29 61 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 37 52 31 61 / 30 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059- 060-070.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ061-071>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097- 108>112.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ124>126-136>138- 149>153-165>167.