textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- An upper trough axis will continue to dig S/SW into our region early this week with a closed low developing across the Ozarks, leading to a series of disturbances over the next few days.

- Rain chances will remain elevated through mid week with low-end risks for severe weather and flash flooding through Tuesday, helping to temper the heat a bit longer.

- The trough axis is expected to lift NE of our region by late week with upper ridging beginning to exert greater influence across our region, which would mean a trend toward hotter and drier conditions once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

An expansive outflow boundary that advanced through much of the region overnight last night managed to greatly limit convective coverage through the day on Sunday. Except for parts of East TX, most areas missed out on another round of showers and storms due to the stabilizing influence of the aforementioned early morning outflow. We are not dealing with that kind of scenario this time around, and this will allow for the atmosphere to destabilize as we begin to heat up later this morning into the early afternoon. Combined with the upper trough axis slipping farther south into the region, diurnal heating should allow for much more expansive coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, including some isolated severe storms with the primary threat of damaging wind gusts. The most intense storm updrafts/cores will be capable of producing some hail as well, albeit more isolated given the lack of strong mid-level lapse rates. Storms should be trending down by late evening and overnight although cannot rule out some activity lingering after midnight.

By Tuesday, we look to repeat the cycle all over again with little change in the overall pattern and troughing still well entrenched across the region. Thus, convection should begin to increase in coverage once again by Tuesday afternoon as high temperatures push back toward the lower 90s. Depending on just how early convection develops, some of our northern zones may only manage the upper 80s for highs on Tuesday and given the closer proximity to the closed low lingering across northern Arkansas. The threat of isolated severe storms will linger as well along with some localized flash flooding, especially within areas of training storms. Timing into the evening is also likely to run similar to Monday before slowly diminishing in coverage and intensity by late evening through the overnight hours.

Going into Wednesday, the trough axis is progged to begin slowly lifting NE with convection generally scattered at best with less overall coverage compared to earlier in the week. In addition, the upper ridge out west will begin to expand closer to our region by late Wednesday and through the end of the week. In this scenario, our rain chances will become greatly diminished while the summer heat really ramps up with potentially our hottest temperatures so far this summer heading into next weekend.

/19/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Convection for the most part has ended and/or pushed south of our airspace late this evening. What we are left with is cirrus debris across most of our airspace attm. While we cannot rule out overnight stray isolated convection, it does not appear to be significant enough coverage wise to include in the overnight TAF package so will follow previous package thinking and leave convection out of the 06z TAF package through at least sunrise. Did keep the trend of adding a few hours of MVFR VSBYs to most terminals given how wet the ground is and given that we should see this high debris cloud cover thin overnight. Otherwise, once again we will await daytime heating to initiate scattered convection once again across our airspace so will ride with VCTS beginning at 20z across most all terminals and continue that possibility through at least 03z. There are some progs that suggest however that the daytime convection could continue right through the very end of the 06z TAF period.

13

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Although spotter activation is not expected today, spotter reports may be needed once again with the threat of isolated severe storms continuing through at least this evening if not into the overnight hours.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 93 73 91 74 / 40 50 60 40 MLU 94 74 91 74 / 30 30 50 20 DEQ 93 69 90 71 / 30 30 30 20 TXK 94 72 92 73 / 30 40 40 30 ELD 92 70 89 71 / 20 40 40 30 TYR 94 73 92 75 / 40 50 50 40 GGG 94 73 92 74 / 40 50 50 40 LFK 93 74 92 75 / 50 30 40 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.