textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will impact the ArkLaTex, first along and north of I-30 overnight tonight, with large hail, tornadoes and wind gusts all possible.

- Further strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the day tomorrow, bringing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail to areas along and south of I-30.

- Quiet conditions will close out this week, followed by a warming trend into the weekend and a cold front bringing a sharp cool down to start next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The closed low over northern Mexico will open up into a trough as it pushes inland through this evening, advancing across central Texas and potentially reforming a new cutoff low during the day tomorrow, finally passing over Louisiana overnight into Thursday. This will, as previously advertised, be the catalyst for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the ArkLaTex over the next 36-48 hours.

The latest high resolution guidance continues to depict the clusters of showers across east Texas moving northeast into this evening, with some areas of stronger convective development possible. The first main event, meanwhile, will be taking shape as a potent squall line over central Texas which will push east this evening, bringing strong to severe thunderstorms to areas along and north of the I-30 corridor. It bears mentioning that model guidance has been inconsistent regarding how long this line will hold together as it pushes east, with the NAM 3km largely collapsing by the time it reaches us, and the HRRR hinting at a chance of more robust convection holding together into Oklahoma and southern Arkansas.

The second half of the main event will be stirred up as the closed low itself pushes into the ArkLaTex during the daytime hours tomorrow, with distinct lines of storms aligned with the surface warm and cold front boundaries. Impacts look to begins from the southwest by midday, continuing through the evening and overnight hours, with rainfall concluding by daybreak Thursday. The big question mark surrounding severe activity with this second wave hinges on the position of the closed low, and particularly its associated warm sector. If the low takes a more northerly track, more of the ArkLaTex will be in the warm sector and thus at risk. By contrast, a southerly track could see the ArkLaTex mostly if not entirely cut off from the environment favorable for severe weather. At this time, zones along and south of the I-30 corridor would do well to be prepared for all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail.

Under clearing skies with northwest flow aloft in the wake of the frontal passage, highs Thursday afternoon will only reach the middle to upper 60s, followed by morning lows in the upper 30s north to lower 40s south Friday morning. The weekend will see further warming under pseudo-zonal flow aloft reinforced by southerly surface flow, as 70s and lower 80s make their return before a deep trough and potent cold front bring a slight chance of showers late Sunday overnight into Monday, as well as a marked cooldown featuring widespread lows in the 30s and even a few northerly sites possibly getting down to freezing early next week to close out this extended forecast period.

/26/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Conditions forecast to deteriorate overnight across area terminals as a frontal boundary approaches the region. MVFR ceilings expected to overspread the region through this evening with showers and thunderstorms forecast to increase in coverage around 11/10Z. Widespread TSRA conditions to persist through much of Wednesday. Otherwise, south winds up to 10 knots tonight to become southwest 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts on Wednesday, becoming northwest across TYR near 12/00Z. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through Wednesday. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 68 78 47 67 / 50 90 60 0 MLU 69 83 47 63 / 10 80 80 10 DEQ 61 74 37 65 / 90 80 20 0 TXK 67 76 44 66 / 80 90 50 0 ELD 64 76 42 65 / 40 90 60 0 TYR 66 76 45 67 / 80 80 40 0 GGG 66 76 44 66 / 70 90 50 0 LFK 67 78 47 67 / 30 90 50 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.