textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Widespread showers and storms will return overnight tonight and continue through Sunday and Monday, resulting in areawide potential for flash flooding to develop from storm total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches by late Monday.

- Sunday will also see a developing risk for isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

- Scattered showers and storms will return Thursday and continue into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The ArkLaTex looks to remain dry through the remainder of today and this evening, while highs climb into the low to middle 90s areawide. Dew points are mixing out sufficiently that once again, heat indices should remain just below Advisory criteria, in the upper 90s to lower 100s, before temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 70s overnight.

Recent model runs have shown strong consistency pertaining to the arrival of tonight's first round of precip, still looking to arrive in our northwest after midnight, spreading south towards daybreak tomorrow. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible with this initial wave. The upper level pattern looks to shift through the next 26 hours from the ridging which has held in place the heat this past week to a pseudo-zonal regime. GFS and ECMWF diverge on how quickly the flow will then transition to northwesterly, most likely by late Sunday or early Monday, but the resulting effects on the ArkLaTex look similar between models. The ArkLaTex looks to see multiple rounds of heavy precip arriving from the north through Monday, potentially led by a more organized line of convection which may produce some isolated severe storms. Storm total rainfall accumulations have trended upwards, now indicating 2 to 4 inches across much of the region with locally higher values possible.

This areawide soaking will start to recede from the northwest by early Tuesday, clearing the majority of the area by the end of the day. However, some guidance hints that the underlying moisture axis will remain draped across the southern half of the Four State Region, or near enough to the south to kick up scattered showers and storms south and east. Either way, the region looks to barely have had a chance to dry out before the next rainmaker arrives. A deepening upper level trough may manage to form a closed low over southern Texas by late in the week, and this cutoff low looks to ride north and east along the Gulf Coast into the ArkLaTex by the end of the week. Ahead of the low, widespread thunder chances will increase through the day Thursday and continue through to the end of this forecast period.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

For the 14/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail this evening as a cu field begins to dissipate with some passing cirrus lingering through the overnight hours. Expect stratocu/altocu cigs closer to with some MVFR conditions possible near/south of I-20 with KLFK the site most likely to experience lower cigs in the MVFR to IFR range through mid to late morning. In addition, look for a complex of showers and thunderstorms to gradually shift south into our northern airspace after midnight through Sunday morning with the threat of VCTS at KTXK and KELD by around 12Z. This convective complex is expected to weaken farther southward if not diminish entirely so lower confidence precludes additional VCTS inclusion along I-20. However, some sea breeze convection will be possible around KLFK closer to 18Z on Sunday so did include VCTS there. Otherwise, S/SW winds will prevail through the period and veer a bit more W/SW on Sunday as a cold front advances from the NW.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight into Sunday.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 78 93 73 81 / 0 40 90 90 MLU 78 94 74 82 / 0 40 90 90 DEQ 75 85 68 80 / 40 60 80 50 TXK 78 90 70 81 / 10 60 80 70 ELD 77 90 69 79 / 10 50 80 80 TYR 78 93 73 81 / 0 40 80 90 GGG 77 93 73 81 / 0 40 90 90 LFK 76 93 74 85 / 0 60 70 90

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.