textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Heat-related impacts will continue through at least the middle of next week as hot afternoon temperatures and very warm overnight temperatures persist.

- A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night will pose the threat for strong to severe wind gusts.

- A pattern change towards late week may bring slightly cooler high temperatures and higher chances for beneficial rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a fairly high amplitude ridge of high pressure centered over the Southern and Central Rockies, extending through much of the Intermountain West, the Southern Great Plains and into Mexico. Upstream from this feature exists a fairly robust area of low pressure off the PNW Coast, while downstream of the ridge broad troughing exists across the majority of the Midwest and Eastern US. Near the surface, the latest WPC analysis depicts a weak boundary across SE OK and along the AR/LA border and into MS/AL, with a cool front pushing south across the Central Plains and towards northern AR as an expansive 1026mb high filters into the Northern Great Plains and Upper MS Valley.

The pattern described above places the Four State Region on the eastern periphery of the expansive upper level ridge, where some large scale subsidence could still be at work, but it also opens to the area into a NW flow pattern, where multiple shortwave disturbances can be detected within this broad flow. This always makes for a challenging forecast in regards to convective potential/coverage across the CWA. Meanwhile, boundaries near the surface often serve as a catalyst for convection within a warm and unstable environment, in which case multiple either exist or are pushing into the area. For the rest of today, expect hot temperatures in the lower 100s with heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees. All heat precautions will need to continue to be exercised. Convection this afternoon and evening will be tricky to forecast. A decaying complex across OK will largely diminish as it continues to approach the area. Despite this, given sufficient instability and steep low-level rates, isolated single-cell thunderstorms may develop ahead of it this afternoon and evening and carry a threat for small hail and gusty winds, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor. Also later this afternoon, a shortwave trough will push across eastern AR, along with the the southward moving cool frontal boundary. This is generate a moderately organized area of convection, most of which will remain east of the area across central and eastern AR, however isolated to scattered convection may eventually develop westward across Southern AR and northern LA through the overnight period.

Any convection that develops across the CWA overnight will gradually weaken and diminish through Sunday morning. Cloud cover will be noticeably higher on Sunday, especially across LA and AR where high temperatures may be 1-5 degrees cooler on Sunday. Unfortunately, high temperatures will still range from the upper 90s to lower 100s so heat index values will still reach advisory criteria. Therefore, the heat advisory has been extended area-wide for Sunday. Convective chances appear more limited for most of Sunday as the upper level ridge nudges slightly farther east. Still cannot completely rule out the chance for isolated afternoon and evening convection given the residual cool frontal boundary and daytime heating. Any convection will pose a threat for strong to severe winds briefly. Of greater concern late Sunday and into Monday appears to be another shortwave perturbation moving through the NW flow over AR, which hi-res guidance is suggesting could generate another semi-organized complex of thunderstorms. Should this complex develop, it may bring a better chance for wider-spread rain and thunderstorms. Placement, timing, and extent of this convection remains a challenge to forecast, but certainly bears monitoring in the near-term.

Moving into next week, ensemble consensus moves the ridge back east slightly. This will continue the concern for heat-related impacts as well as continue the elevated fire danger across the area. While many people will not have enjoyed reading that, there also remains rather solid consensus in another retrogression of the ridge by mid-week, which may offer slightly cooler high temperatures in the 90s and perhaps a better chance for rain and convection.

CK

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail as an elevated cloud deck develops from the northwest this afternoon. Recent models have pulled back on convection developing this afternoon enough to be removed from this package, but some pop-ups can't be ruled out. Apart from visibility reductions, conditions are expected to remain VFR with these showers. Winds will largely be light/variable into the overnight hours. Models have started to focus on convection developing over northeast TX and southwest AR this evening and propagating southeast through the region. There is still uncertainty on both exact timing and locations of impacts, but most sites should at least expect VCTS from 23/00z through 23/06z. Gusty winds will be possible with these storms in addition to the typical hazards. Once convection dissipates early Sunday morning, light/variable winds with some lingering elevated cigs will carry through the end of the period.

/57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Spotter activation may needed late tonight and again on Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 79 103 80 102 / 20 30 10 10 MLU 75 101 77 97 / 10 30 10 30 DEQ 72 101 74 102 / 30 20 10 0 TXK 75 102 77 102 / 30 20 10 0 ELD 74 100 74 97 / 50 30 10 20 TYR 80 105 81 105 / 10 10 10 0 GGG 78 105 80 104 / 10 20 10 0 LFK 77 103 77 101 / 0 10 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.