textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions expected through Tuesday night.

- The potential for strong to severe storms will exist Wednesday afternoon and night for Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and portions of Southwest Arkansas.

- A wet pattern expected from midweek through the end of the forecast period Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A frontal boundary is forecast to linger across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas today allowing for light southwest winds areawide this afternoon. Seasonably warm temps with highs in the lower 80s expected across much of the region south of I-30, with slightly cooler highs near the front ranging from the mid to upper 70s. With dewpoint values in the 50s and lower 60s, conditions will feel a little muggy across much of the region this afternoon.

Frontal boundary to lift north overnight as southwesterly flow increases areawide. Could see a layer of stratus develop beneath the inversion across much of the region by Tuesday morning.

Upper-flow to become southwest on Tuesday into Tuesday night as a trough dives southeast out of the Rockies moving into the Central Plains by Wednesday. At the surface, a frontal boundary will approach the region from the northwest and surface dewpoints will further surge into the low to mid 60s across the ArkLaTex. Moisture convergence ahead of the front at the time of peak heating will be enough to ignite scattered thunderstorms along and south of the boundary on Wednesday afternoon. Some storms may produce large hail and damaging winds along with isolated tornadoes late in the afternoon into the overnight hours.

Upper-level southwest flow to persist through the remainder of the forecast period on Sunday. There is a threat for severe weather again on Friday across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas with an SPC 15% risk area just west of the ArkLaTex and again on Saturday across the northwest half of the ArkLaTex. Both of these threats are the result of disturbances translating northeast along a lingering frontal boundary in a moisture rich environment with storms developing at the time of peak heating producing a mainly hail and damaging wind threat.

With a fairly stagnant moist pattern expected to continue through much of the forecast period from Wednesday onward, the threat for extended periods of rainfall, locally heavy at times, could lead to a flood threat across the I-30 corridor. However, there is some uncertainty on where the axis of the highest rain totals will occur as it will be based on the placement of the frontal boundary. For the time being, it should be noted that WPC is advertising 4.5 inch totals from Wednesday through Sunday night northwest of I-30. /05/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, southerly flow will remain all week. Morning low decks will vary from IFR/MVFR wit afternoon VFR. S/SW winds 5-15KT with convection by mid to late week. No fropa for another week until we get behind the parent closed upper low in the SW flow pattern. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1141 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Tuesday night. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 59 84 65 84 / 0 10 0 20 MLU 57 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 20 DEQ 55 80 60 79 / 10 10 20 50 TXK 60 83 65 84 / 0 10 10 30 ELD 55 81 61 83 / 0 0 0 20 TYR 62 84 66 83 / 0 10 10 40 GGG 60 83 64 84 / 0 10 0 30 LFK 60 83 65 84 / 0 10 0 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.