textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Thunderstorms across the southern half of the ArkLaTex this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

- Showers and storms tomorrow afternoon may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail in southwest Arkansas and immediately adjacent portions of Oklahoma, Texas and Louisiana.

- A Heat Advisory will continue areawide overnight and through tomorrow evening for high temperatures near or in excess of 100 degrees with heat indices up to 109 continuing throughout the week ahead.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Decaying showers along the I-30 corridor are at this hour still trying to put down some strong gusts. As these deteriorate, attention will turn this afternoon to the surface boundary sliding south. Recent runs of CAMs indicate convection lighting up by mid to late afternoon south of the I-20 corridor in east Texas and north Louisiana, prompting an upgrade to Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) by the SPC. As with yesterday's storms, the primary threat will be wind- driven in nature, likely in the form of downbursts produced by mature to decaying storms or storm complexes.

Today's storms look to move south out of the area by late evening, leaving the region generally dry overnight, aside from the potential arrival of the leading line of the next complex out of Oklahoma along and north of I-30 in the pre-dawn hours. These storms will continue to graze our northern zones into tomorrow morning, with subsequent rounds of storms to follow. The latest NBM guidance keeps PoPs primarily north of the I-20 corridor through Sunday morning, based on the steering of northwest flow aloft and impulses of moisture being driven south.

As for the heat outlook, solutions are staring to diverge more, but the overall trend is minor relief from the oppressive heat and humidity of recent days. CONSShort is favoring significant mixing out of dewpoints tomorrow behind the passing surface boundary. While this may be exaggerated, even the comparably muggy NBM numbers do not indicate ArkLaTex sites exceeding Heat Advisory criteria, and some of our northern sites struggling to even reach criteria. Allowing for potential overperformance, extended areawide Heat Advisory through Saturday evening.

The long term forecast is considerably more uncertain, based on the extent and strength of the upper level ridge and high pressure. As of this writing, Sunday looks to remain largely dry, with scattered chances for showers and storms clipping our northern and eastern zones going into next week, a bit of a drier period late Monday through early Wednesday, and more rounds of showers and storms for the latter half of next week as weak disturbances are swept south on the northwest flow. In a nutshell, the prevailing upper level pattern will change very little, but the exact position of the northwest flow and moisture impulses will be the deciding factor in who gets rain and when. Triple digits look to continue throughout, though the presence of more frequent rainfall and cloud cover may start to make a dent in this prolonged heat wave for our northeastern zones, meaning highs "only" in the middle to upper 90s. Lows in the middle to upper 70s will likewise continue throughout.

/26/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail for all sites at the top of the period. Recent model guidance has some convection initiating along and south of I- 20 this afternoon from earlier outflow. There could also be some chance for other development from an MCV further north at a similar time. The main hazards for these showers other than typical reduction in visibilities will be sudden heavy winds due to microbursts. The activity should diminish around 22/06z tonight. Shifting wind directions from a southward progressing front will be the main focus for tomorrow, with southerly winds in the morning shifting westerly/northwesterly by the end of the period. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for East Texas and North Louisiana with the development of thunderstorms that may produce damaging wind gusts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 103 78 101 76 / 20 20 20 10 MLU 103 75 102 75 / 20 20 20 10 DEQ 104 73 100 72 / 20 40 20 20 TXK 104 76 100 74 / 20 40 20 20 ELD 104 73 101 73 / 20 20 20 20 TYR 104 77 104 78 / 20 20 20 10 GGG 104 77 104 76 / 20 20 30 10 LFK 103 76 102 76 / 30 30 20 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070- 071.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ072-073.

Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ072-073.

LA...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>022.

Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ124>126- 136>138-149>153-165>167.

Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.