textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Dry conditions remain in place for today across the region.

- Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will return to the area late Tuesday and through the day Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures on Thursday, followed by a warming trend into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

We remain under the influence of a very weak upper-level ridge today, some might even call it "pseudo-zonal flow", which has helped produce the mostly sunny skies over the past few days. While this feature will remain in control through tomorrow, there will be a weak short-wave trough move through the central CONUS that could bring some showers or thunderstorms very late this evening and into the early overnight hours across our far northern zones. While models are in disagreement about this, there was enough for me to at least deviate from the NBM and add some PoPs across our northern zones from 05/03z to 05/09z. Meanwhile, a closed low will be moving inland over central California today that will gradually push through the Rocky Mountain region and into the Central Plains by Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front is currently pushing through the central CONUS and will begin to move into our region from the north by Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms should increase along and ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves through the area during the day Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening, especially for areas near and north of the I-30 corridor where a Slight Risk has been placed by SPC. As the cold front moves through the area on Wednesday, this Slight Risk will shift to areas near and south of the I-30 corridor and will encompass the rest of the area. Models indicate that storms could get fired up as early as 06/00z across our northwest zones and might not clear our southeast zones till 07/12z, which is slower than earlier model runs. This threat will be very conditional for our area, and this is shown by the difference in coverage that the short range vs long range models are showing. Dry conditions then return to the area following the exit of the aforementioned convection and cooler temperatures will be in place for Thursday before a warming trend commences on Friday and into the weekend. Our next decent chance for widespread convection looks to be Saturday night into Sunday, but models are still in great disagreement about that. /33/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR with SW wind 10-20KT with some higher gusts. Gradient will remain overnight with WS020/20040KT for the heart of our region. We are going to see MVFR cigs arriving 09- 12Z and through 17Z with no convection early, but filtering in from W/SW well after sunset. Fropa will be late aftn/into the evening on Wednesday, so look for ongoing convection overnight keeping VCSH/VCTS in place through the night into Thursday as the boundary stalls a bit until midday on Thursday veering wind from NW to N/NE. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 66 85 71 82 / 0 10 20 70 MLU 63 86 70 84 / 0 10 20 80 DEQ 63 83 59 73 / 20 20 60 60 TXK 67 85 66 77 / 10 10 50 70 ELD 62 84 64 76 / 10 10 40 80 TYR 68 85 70 81 / 0 10 30 60 GGG 66 85 70 82 / 0 10 20 70 LFK 66 85 72 86 / 0 0 10 70

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.