textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Very hot conditions will continue through at least early next week, posing an increased threat for heat-related illness.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue to pose a risk for quick fire starts and rapid fire spreads. - Those spending time outdoors over the next week should follow all heat-related and fire weather precautions and safety tips (refer to weather.gov/shv for more details).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning depicts a broad ridge of high pressure extending from the Southern Plains through the Gulf Coast and across the Southeast US. Slightly stronger mid and upper level flow exists to the north and west of this feature, where several perturbations are contributing to active weather, especially across the Northern Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Near the surface, high pressure also remains the dominant influence across much of the Southern US and the Gulf, with several either quasi-stationary or cool frontal boundaries displaced well to the north across the Midwest and Northern Great Plains.

Given the synoptic pattern described above, the Four State Region remains locked into a hot/humid and dry pattern, due in part by subsidence aloft from the expansive mid and upper level ridge along with continued S/SW flow in the low levels off the Gulf around the surface ridge. Expect this afternoon to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, although the main noticeable change will be in the higher dewpoints owing to less overall boundary layer mixing as compared to yesterday (thanks to a more relaxed regional pressure gradient). The heat advisory is in good shape with most all areas reaching heat index values later today between 105 and 110 degrees. Scattered fair weather cumulus clouds will provide only very brief shade from the hot conditions at times, so heat precautions really need to be exercised today. A Fire Danger Statement will also remain in effect through today given the continued warm and dry conditions, however, it should be noted that winds & wind gusts along with afternoon RHs will be slightly lower/higher, respectively, as compared to yesterday.

No change expected in the weather pattern for Sunday. Expect another hot and dry day area-wide with temperatures continuing to climb a few degrees into the lower 100s and make for another period of dangerously hot conditions. Increased mixing by late morning and into the early afternoon on Sunday, especially west of the I-49 corridor, is likely to result in lower dewpoints into the 60s and lower RH values. While fire danger will be a concern again area-wide, this area of the CWA will be of increased concern. It is imperative to follow guidance from local authorities on burn ban information as well as be aware of and take general fire weather precautions.

Monday will be a repeat of the weekend with hot temperatures and fire weather concerns continuing. That said, a surface frontal boundary will be pushing slowly south towards northern zones during the day. A few showers and thunderstorms could materialize across SE OK and SW AR during the afternoon and evening hours, but coverage currently appears quite isolated, limiting a decent chance for any beneficial rainfall amounts. By Tuesday, ensemble solutions from the EC/GFS/CMC suggest a slight retrogression in the synoptic pattern, which would place NW aloft a bit closer to our region as the ridge builds back west slightly. This, along with the presence of the sfc boundary somewhere across northern zones could help spark some isolated afternoon and evening convection across SW AR and perhaps even far North-Central LA. Confidence is low in the potential currently but it may offer the first promising chance for some measurable rainfall across these areas.

Thereafter, from mid-week through late-week, the question will be how well the retrogression of the large scale pattern can hold in place. This is where, expectedly, the ensemble solutions diverge, with some showing the ridge retrograding slightly further west and others having it creep back east into the local area during this timeframe. Glancing upstream at this point in time, there is evidence of at least a weak high-over-low blocking pattern near the West Coast, which lends confidence in the overall pattern holding through the end of the week. That said, the subtle details in exactly how far east the upper level ridge influence will hold is the challenge, and hence the ensemble solutions differences. Nevertheless, there is at least a chance that isolated to scattered convection could become introduced into the forecast as we get closer in time. Expect hot temperatures to continue, although they could come down a few degrees during this time depending on the evolution of the pattern.

CK

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For the 15/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the course of this forecast period. This afternoon's Cu field will dissipate after sunset, leaving only scattered high clouds and otherwise mostly clear skies overnight into tomorrow morning. South southwest winds will continue throughout at maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with isolated gusts of up to 15 kts possible, becoming light during the overnight hours.

/26/

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Fire weather conditions will remain favorable for fire starts and fire spreads into next week given the continued hot and dry conditions. Min RH values will dip to between 30 and 40 percent this afternoon with SW winds generally around 10kts. Sunday will feature lower afternoon RH values area-wide, but especially across East TX where more aggressive mixing is expected to lower dewpoints into the 60s (closer to 70 or in the lower 70s elsewhere). This could result in min RH values near 20 percent, with the remainder of the area continuing to dip into the 30 percent range. Winds will still remain out of the SW around 10kts.

CK

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but spotters are encouraged to report any wildfire activity to your local officials and fire department personnel.

CK

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 79 103 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 79 101 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 74 102 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 78 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 78 100 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 77 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 76 103 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 74 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.