textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Tropical Storm Arthur has formed across the far Southeast Texas Coast.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of far Deep East Texas into West Central and East Central Louisiana through 7pm Thursday.

- The Flooding threat will shift north in the wake of Arthur Thursday Night and more areawide Friday through the weekend as the Four State Region will remain in an unsettled weather pattern.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

After days of speculation on if the tropical disturbance across far Southeast Texas into the SW Gulf could develop a low level circulation or not given how close in proximity to the coast the disturbance was, as of 10am CDT this morning, we now have the first named storm of the early Atlantic Hurricane Season, Tropical Storm Arthur. While this storm will remain a very weak Tropical Storm before making landfall across SE TX sometime this afternoon or evening, the "potential" for heavy rainfall remains the one and only possible impact across our region. Having said that, the heavy rainfall threat across our southern zones is not without its questions. As of right now, a Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 pm Thursday for parts of Deep East Texas into West Central and East Central Louisiana. We thought about trimming the watch back to just include our far southern parishes in Central Louisiana with the late morning package but NHC's slight westward shift to the inland track overnight through early Thursday was reason enough for us to stand pat with the current watch configuration for now. What is more certain is that by far the heaviest rainfall in association with a weakening Arthur overnight through Thursday will be to the south and east of the center of circulation in association with the weakening system and that should be south and east of our forecast area. But as discussed above, any further shift to the west with the inland track could impact our far southern counties and parishes so the Flood Watch currently in place is therefore very conditional.

Beyond Thursday, the focus shifts immediately to our north and west as a weak upper level trough embedded in a weak ridge slowly meanders eastward across the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR. This feature is forecast to become sheared west to east across the heart of our region through the upcoming weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible each day, especially Friday into Saturday. While widespread severe weather does not appear likely with this setup, pockets of instability and any cold pools generated by convection could pose a wind threat. By far the greater concern would be a flooding threat as WPC has outlooked most of our area in a Slight Risk for Excessive Heavy Rainfall Friday thru Friday Night and I would not be surprised to see this expanded into Saturday as well.

Beyond the weekend, we could be dealing with several weak but potent shortwaves moving our way in WNW flow aloft. This should at least temper the heat somewhat but it's something we will need to watch, especially if the weekend rainfall becomes excessive as the flooding threat could continue through at least the middle of next week as well.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 721 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

For the 18/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail to begin the TAF period but expect low stratus to surge northward overnight once again as TS Arthur slowly drifts E/NE along the upper TX coast. As a result, expect MVFR/IFR cigs to gradually overtake all terminals through the early morning hours and continue well after daybreak. These cigs will eventually lift and begin to scatter out by late morning through midday with VFR conditions returning in the early afternoon. Some spotty convection will be possible at KMLU/KELD as TS Arthur shifts farther east into western and central LA. Other sites will likely remain free of convection, but a slight shift to the north in Arthur's track could introduce convection farther west at KLFK/KSHV/KTXK later on Thursday. Otherwise, breezy S/SE winds will prevail overnight around 10 kts or less, eventually becoming more variable on Thursday as Arthur advances eastward.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Spotter activation may become necessary late tonight into at least the first half of Thursday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur are forecast to move just south of the Four State Region. The main impact, if any would be excessive, heavy rainfall which could pose a flooding concern.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 76 94 78 91 / 30 30 30 50 MLU 76 91 77 90 / 50 70 50 70 DEQ 75 93 74 86 / 0 20 60 60 TXK 76 95 76 90 / 10 30 60 70 ELD 75 91 75 87 / 20 40 60 80 TYR 75 95 79 93 / 20 20 20 30 GGG 75 95 79 92 / 20 20 30 40 LFK 75 95 79 94 / 30 20 20 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ017>022.

OK...None. TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ152-165>167.