textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1021 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

- Should see temperatures warming back to near normal today for mid December as our region was really only skirted by the brunt of the coldest air that missed us to the east.

- With the warmer air returning, moisture will be returning as well with our next rain chances set up for tonight through Thursday.

- After a brief cool down on Friday, the heat is on through the upcoming weekend with much above normal temperatures forecast through the upcoming holiday week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1021 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Weak upper ridging today across the Southern Plains will quickly transition to weak troughing across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley tonight and into Wednesday. This along with southerly winds returning to our entire region today/tonight will allow for a good warmup and with that warmup, increasing moisture that should result in the development of some showers across our region beginning tonight. Weak upper forcing and lower isentropic forcing will aid in this precipitation development tonight into Wednesday. A much more potent upper level storm system will move quickly out of the Intermountain West and into the Central/Southern Plains Thursday into Thursday Evening and it's this system that should provide more in the way of upper level support for some thunderstorm activity across our region. In advance of this stronger upper level trough, sfc dewpoints of at least 60 degrees should return to our region during the day Thu, with readings in the middle 60s by afternoon/evening across our eastern and northeastern third which will allow for SBCAPE values maybe pushing near 1000J/KG and mid level lapse rates near 7 deg/km. All this to say, would not be surprised to see a few strong storms across our eastern and northeastern half late in the day Thursday before a cold front pushes all this activity to our east Thursday Evening.

In the wake of this upper trough and associated cold front on Thu, our upper level pattern quickly transitions from northwest to near zonal flow for Friday with this flow continuing through the upcoming weekend. Likewise, after a brief post-frontal cool down on Friday, southerly winds return for at least the first half of the weekend and that results in a big warmup with highs in the 70s across most areas for Sat and Sun. There may be a very weak wind shift that backdoors its way south and southwest into our region Sunday into Sunday Night but not seeing much in the way of a temperature decline in the wake of this boundary even if it happens to make it this far south.

By early next week, upper ridging begins to build across the Tx Hill Country and into the Southern Plains and that combined with south to southwest winds in the lower levels will result in a very warm late December weather pattern across our region that really shows no signs of breaking down beyond the 7-day outlook and even towards Christmas Day. Thus, if you like warm weather, then this forecast is for you.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Recent satellite imagery is showing an incoming cirrus deck just to the west of the forecast area that will be moving in over the next 6 or so hours. Clouds will stay elevated through the night and through the day Tuesday until a mid deck develops Tuesday night. Winds will stay light and southerly, maxing out around 5 kts Tuesday afternoon. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1021 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Spotter activation is not expected Today through Wednesday Night but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out along a strong cold front that will impact our region during the day Thursday.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 50 33 58 48 / 0 0 0 30 MLU 46 27 54 42 / 0 0 0 30 DEQ 47 27 53 40 / 0 0 0 20 TXK 48 32 56 46 / 0 0 0 30 ELD 47 25 52 40 / 0 0 0 30 TYR 50 37 59 51 / 0 0 0 30 GGG 50 32 58 47 / 0 0 0 30 LFK 51 32 60 48 / 0 0 0 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.