textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

- Warmer and more humid conditions today will give way to cooler conditions Sunday with our next cold frontal passage.

- Isolated areas of light rain/showers/drizzle will be possible late tonight ahead of the front over Southern Arkansas and North Louisiana, and will persist through at least Sunday morning before diminishing as the front stalls out over Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana. - A return to warmer/much above normal temperatures and dry conditions will return areawide Monday afternoon through the entire holiday week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

The extensive low stratus cigs have begun to lift/scatter out late this morning across the region, which has allowed for the stronger 40-50kt winds associated with the SWrly LLJ to begin mixing down to the sfc. This is evident with more widespread gusts nearing/exceeding 30kts across much of NE TX, adjacent Srn AR/NW LA per multiple 15-16Z sfc obs. This is also indicative of warm advection underway as well, which will result in a return to above normal temps areawide, with winds expected to begin relaxing by mid-afternoon with the weakening pressure gradient ahead of a cold front now entering portions of Ncntrl OK and the TX Panhandle. This front remains progged to continue shifting SSE into N TX/extreme SE OK/Cntrl AR later this afternoon, but should slow as it encounters the higher terrain of the Ouachitas early this evening, before eventually backdooring SSW into SW AR/extreme NE TX overnight. Low level moisture is expected to pool Nwd ahead of the front this evening, with weak isentropic forcing possibly able to ring out some isolated -SHRA/-DZ mainly after 06Z over portions of Srn AR/N LA. Did expand slight chance pops farther W into portions of extreme Ern TX (from the previous forecast), with at least patchy FG developing late ahead of the front near and S of the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA.

The front should continue to slide SSW across the remainder of N LA/E TX after daybreak Sunday, but not surprisingly, a bit slower than previous model runs given the shallow nature of this air mass. Thus, the frontal departure into Deep E TX/Cntrl LA is progged to be a bit delayed until late afternoon/early evening, before stalling along the Srn fringes or just S of the area. The NBM did initialize with lower pops this morning for any isolated -SHRA/-DZ that develops along and S of the front Sunday, but still remains too high based on the very light QPF amounts, and thus have trimmed back Pops another 10-20% and closer to the MOS guidance mainly over N LA/adjacent E TX. The front should begin to lift back N as a warm front late Sunday night, with advection FG developing along and just S of the returning front. Still can't rule out isolated -SHRA redeveloping near and S of the front as well, but given the shallow depth of the moisture lyr and lack of larger scale forcing beneath the zonal flow aloft, have again trimmed back the NBM pops 10-20% to slight chance/low chance from Lower Toledo Bend Country across much of N LA.

The warm sector will continue to quickly expand NNE into the Mid- South region Monday afternoon, with flat ridging aloft expected to build E into WCntrl TX from Nrn Old MX. This ridging will expand E across the remainder of the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley and gradually amplify N by Tuesday, and persist through the remainder of the holiday week, with continued Srly low level flow and subsidence beneath the ridge yielding a prolonged period of much above normal temps through the period. In fact, max temps will near record territory for some locales by Christmas Eve and Day, as well as at least the first half of the extended holiday weekend as little change is expected in the overall synoptic pattern over the region.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Gusty southerly winds early this evening to diminish to 5 knots or less. VFR ceilings and VSBYS to deteriorate to IFR/LIFR after 21/06Z with -DZ/RA and VCSH conditions possible across most terminals through daybreak ahead of a frontal boundary. Conditions forecast to improve to VFR on Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, winds to become northeast to near 10kts with higher gusts behind the front on Sunday. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1225 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Spotter activation will not be needed through this weekend. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 58 64 55 75 / 20 20 20 20 MLU 59 64 54 74 / 30 30 20 30 DEQ 46 58 45 68 / 0 0 10 10 TXK 50 58 50 71 / 10 10 10 10 ELD 50 58 48 70 / 30 20 10 20 TYR 56 65 55 76 / 10 10 10 10 GGG 56 64 54 75 / 10 10 20 10 LFK 61 75 58 78 / 10 20 20 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.