textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- The last full week of summer will feel more like the middle of summer with mid and upper 90s to lower 100s each day, extending heat advisory headlines through at least mid-week.

- Although rain chances aren't zero, the majority of the region will remain dry throughout the week with only slightly better rain chances across our eastern zones later this afternoon.

- The upper-level ridge is expected to weaken by next weekend as an upper low drifts westward over the northern Gulf, providing our next best chance of rain by next Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The heat marches on this week in what is hopefully summer's last gasp after an extended stretch of above average warmth during the latter half of the summer season. The culprit, a nearly permanent upper ridge, has barely deviated from its default position across the southern half of the U.S. over the past few months. The ridge axis will shift very little throughout this week, deflecting the majority of convection away from our region. The one exception is today with a more active sea-breeze influence on the back side of the ridge as it becomes centered to our east. The resulting push of southerly flow will aid in convection across mainly our eastern zones so have reflected this with low to mid chance PoPs generally along and east of the I-49 corridor this afternoon into the early evening hours. As with most thunderstorms in this hot environment, can't rule out a stray storm becoming severe with a downburst wind threat. Otherwise, expect another hot and humid day with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to lower 100s.

Beyond today, persistence will carry the day in terms of the heat advisory headlines likely being extended beyond Tuesday with very little day-to-day fluctuation in temperatures through the end of the week. Heat safety precautions should continue to be carefully implemented this week with all outdoor activities and especially youth sports. The dangerous heat risk will only further escalate through mid-week and likely beyond that into late week when high school football games are scheduled.

If you're wondering when changes may be finally coming our way, model trends do continue to favor a break in this heat by late next weekend as an upper low shifts west over the northern Gulf. This low should help to undercut the ridge farther east over the Carolinas while also providing our next chance of rainfall. For now, it appears the first half of next will remain dry for most of us with Sunday showing better promise for rain chances across much of the region. Additional rain chances and cooler temperatures do look to be in play beyond that as we look to the first day of fall on September 22nd with great anticipation.

/19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For the 14/12z TAF update...VFR conditions prevail across the region despite some earlier indication that some MVFR CIGs could develop this morning. Still think we are in that sweet spot for some lower clouds, but probabilities are decreasing some, so I have increased the lower cloud limits at KLFK. Aside from this, CU field will bring SCT to FEW at around 4-5k feet this afternoon along with the chance for some very isolated convection. As has been the case, I don't foresee any thunderstorms moving directly over any terminal, but I have maintained mention of VCTS for KSHV, KMLU, KTXK, and KELD for this afternoon. Winds should remain light throughout this TAF period, with the exception of any stronger winds from thunderstorms that do develop. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 99 77 98 77 / 20 10 0 0 MLU 100 75 99 76 / 40 20 10 0 DEQ 99 72 99 72 / 20 10 0 0 TXK 99 76 99 76 / 20 10 10 0 ELD 100 73 99 74 / 30 20 10 0 TYR 98 75 98 75 / 0 10 0 0 GGG 100 74 100 75 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 96 74 95 74 / 10 10 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.