textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon across Northcentral Louisiana and Deep East Texas, before affecting much of the region Thursday.

- Following a reduction in showers and thunderstorms Friday, a return to unsettled weather will return to the region this weekend into at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The early afternoon water vapor imagery indicates weak troughing aloft extending from the Middle Red River Valley SE through Nrn into SE TX and the far NW Gulf, with scattered convection now beginning to develop along the fringes of this trough within the deep tropical air mass in place. While MLCapes have climbed to 2000-2500 J/kg across these areas this afternoon, the overall environment should not be as volatile as it was Tuesday, although locally gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will remain possible in the stronger storms. Did have to increase pops to likely across the Cntrl LA/Deep E TX areas this afternoon given the consensus amongst the HREF members increasing convection later this afternoon over these areas, with the weak troughing aloft expected to begin drifting N tonight along the backside of the upper ridge in place from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast States, as it recenters itself into the TN Valley. While the afternoon convection should gradually diminish during the evening, the various 12Z progs suggest that additional isolated to widely scattered convection should redevelop late over at least the Wrn half of the area, along H925-700 theta-e ridging that will develop over this area. NBM pops tonight really through much of the short term period remain garbage for our area, with the pop forecast having to be redrawn to reflect the latest model data and current thinking, as they were increased and expanded in coverage given the good model and QPF consensus. Did increase pops to likely Thursday generally along and W of the I-49 corridor, tapering to mostly chance pops farther E, as the residual trough axis will begin to open while bisecting the region from N to S on the backside of the ridge. Increased cloud cover and convection coverage should limit the extent of insolation, with mostly below normal temps expected.

This convection should again diminish during the evening as the weak troughing becomes more ill-defined, and the air mass becomes worked over from the earlier convection. Did maintain slight chance pops Thursday night for the Wrn half of the area over the much drier NBM, to respect any lingering convection as well as the weakness overhead and the continued theta-e ridging. Should see a bit more of a reprieve in convection Friday as the upper ridging to our E drifts farther S into the SE states and flattens, with attendant sfc ridging over this same area allowing for slightly drier air to possibly mix W into Srn AR/portions of N LA through the day. Thus, the potential for isolated to widely scattered convection should remain primarily across the Srn and Wrn zones, before the flow aloft begins to transition to the SW ahead of the closed low now over Srn Baja, which is progged to slowly swing through Nrn Old MX Thursday/Thursday night before emerging out over far W TX Friday night/Saturday morning. The presence of this weak low/trough will result in unsettled weather over much of the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley this weekend.

The medium range progs suggest that inverted sfc trough will develop along or just inland of the SE TX/S LA coasts Saturday morning, before lifting N into E TX/Cntrl LA through the day. This bndry should enhance convection development within the moisture laden air mass as upper level diffluence increases ahead of the upper trough as it lifts N through far W TX into the TX S Plains. However, given the discrepancies with the extent of convection development over the region Saturday afternoon amongst the medium range models, not quite confident to go with likely pops just yet except across portions of Cntrl LA, and thus have tapered pops down to mid and high chance elsewhere. Should see better convection coverage Sunday once the trough ejects NE into KS, thus tapping a stronger/deeper SSWrly flow to enhance the daytime seabreeze. Residual weak trough with this opening trough should still focus scattered convection through the day Monday especially for the afternoon with daytime heating/destabilization, with weak ridging aloft progged to keep convection more isolated through at least mid-week. There are some indications though that the ridging may become more "dirty," which would tend to favor more scattered convection development, while maintaining above normal temps for the latter portions of the extended period.

15

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, late day convection running along and S of I-20 w/ Tempos for TS/E15G25KT. We could see brief reduction to vsby, but generally feels like a sea breeze push as our low level winds are all E out of a SFC high over the midAltantic states. The recent weak fropa is lifting back N going forward with more convection likely on Thurs/Fri. We can expect a busier wknd as the Easterlies meet an upper low on the Westerlies, with a pancake of likely convection coverage and NUM gusty downpours. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 72 83 70 88 / 40 60 20 20 MLU 71 86 67 89 / 20 20 10 10 DEQ 70 81 69 86 / 20 70 20 20 TXK 71 85 71 89 / 30 70 20 20 ELD 69 84 66 87 / 20 30 10 10 TYR 71 84 72 88 / 30 60 20 30 GGG 71 83 70 88 / 30 60 20 20 LFK 70 84 69 88 / 50 60 30 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.