textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Although the heat and humidity of early July will persist, our daily rain chances look to continue through at least Tuesday with a low-end severe risk over much of the region today.

- An induced trough axis will hold serve for a few more days as we remain flanked by a ridge to our east and west, keeping the more intense summer heat at bay at least temporarily.

- Forecast confidence continues to increase that upper ridging will begin to exert greater influence across our region late next week, which would mean a trend toward hotter and drier conditions once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Mother Nature delivered some impressive fireworks of her own over the Independence Day holiday, and the longwave pattern will favor a continuation of scattered showers and thunderstorms once again today and into the first half of next week. In fact, the next wave of convection is ongoing toward the I-30 corridor where a decaying MCS continues to slowly advance SE of the Red River. Although wind speeds have dropped off considerably from early this evening when it was still upstream over parts of central and eastern Oklahoma, frequent to near continuous lightning is still accompanying these storms. However, do expect the weakening trend to continue as the convection moves south of I-30 through the pre-dawn hours before largely diminishing toward daybreak.

In its wake, look for residual outflow boundaries to set up and serve as a focus for renewed convection later on today as strong sfc heating helps to further destabilize the atmosphere and high temperatures surge back into the lower and mid 90s once again. For this reason, SPC has highlighted the vast majority of our region in a Marginal Risk for severe weather later today. The threat of damaging wind gusts will be primary with this low-end risk in any storms that develop through this evening and potentially overnight if another MCS is able to manifest farther upstream. In addition, can't rule out some small hail as well but it should be much more isolated and confined to the most intense storms.

Heading into next week, our region will effectively remain in an area of induced troughing between a ridge axis just off the SE coast over the Atlantic and a stronger one building to the west. Given this pattern, we should expect more scattered convection and largely diurnally driven through Tuesday before the ridge out west begins to expand closer to our region by mid to late week. In this scenario, our rain chances will be greatly diminished while summer heat really ramps up with potentially our hottest temperatures so far this summer.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Conditions are currently predominantly VFR across the region, although a few temporary pockets of MVFR broken ceilings could crop up over the next few hours as the diurnal cumulus field bubbles up. A general upper level trough is expected to result in isolated to widely scattered showers and storms today, although some drier pockets of air above the surface, in the wake of an early morning complex of showers and storms, will likely ultimately result in less coverage of vigorous showers and storms than was the case yesterday afternoon and evening. An exception could be in E TX, from TYR and GGG south to LFK, where better low level convergence and recovery of deep moisture may spark a late afternoon through early evening southward moving line of thunderstorms with gusty wind potential. Tempo groups were included at those sites to capture the best time windows for impact, but otherwise the potential for afternoon and early evening showers and storms was included at VCTS / VCSH, at least until more confidence is obtained further into the afternoon. Expect largely VFR conditions tonight into tomorrow morning, although some pockets of MVFR visibility issues or low clouds cannot be ruled out from roughly 6 AM to 10 AM tomorrow across the region. Organized late night into Sunday morning thunderstorms are also not currently anticipated, although the overhead trough pattern this time of year can offer surprise - so we will monitor the situation closely and update the TAFs as needed. /50/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Although spotter activation is not expected today, spotter reports may be needed once again with the threat of isolated severe storms continuing through at least this evening if not into the overnight hours.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 76 93 75 92 / 40 30 40 30 MLU 75 93 75 93 / 50 40 40 40 DEQ 71 92 71 92 / 20 20 20 10 TXK 74 94 74 94 / 30 20 30 10 ELD 72 91 72 92 / 40 20 20 20 TYR 77 96 76 95 / 20 30 30 10 GGG 76 95 75 94 / 30 30 40 10 LFK 77 95 76 94 / 20 40 40 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.