textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible mainly this evening over portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent Southwest Arkansas.

- Much above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, with near record high temperatures possible.

- The potential for much needed but heavy rainfall exists tonight northwest of the I-30 corridor, before returning Friday afternoon and gradually spreading southeast into Northeast Texas, Southern Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions continue across the region this morning, with the morning low stratus beginning to lift and giving way to strong insolation with 17-18Z obs already indicating temps nearing 80 degrees. Meanwhile, the midday sfc analysis indicates a weak shallow cold front that continues to drift SE into SE and Srn OK into the Wrn sections of N TX, but should become stationary this afternoon as it encounters the higher terrain of SE OK. The front will remain a focal point area for the redevelopment of scattered to numerous convection later this afternoon and especially tonight as well-defined shortwave trough evident on the midday water vapor imagery entering Wrn KS continues to traverse E through the state this evening and into Nrn MO overnight. Areas of -RA with embedded elevated convection continue mainly behind the front over Cntrl/NE OK and Wrn N TX, although large scale forcing will increase late this afternoon and especially this evening with the approach of the base of the trough axis. Instability has already begun to spread NE along/ahead of the front with an axis of 1000-1500+ J/kg of SBCape evident in the latest mesoanalysis, with the more favorable area of bulk shear of 30-40kts evident along and N of the Middle Red River Valley into Wrn and Nrn AR. This area will be the favored area for strong to severe convection especially this evening, although the severe threat will diminish as we move later into the evening given the weakening instability axis. This threat area will mainly focus along the far NW zones, but the extent of convection development may reinforce the weak front back SE into Nrn McCurtain County and adjacent Wrn AR late.

This bndry will remain a focal point for additional scattered (but weaker) convection overnight through Thursday morning, before it begins to lift back N and eventually wash out later in the day. Did maintain mid to high chance pops for the Nrn zones during the morning before the front backs farther N away from the region, and the remnant effects of the shortwave trough diminish as it progresses into the OH valley. Morning low clouds should scatter out by afternoon, giving way to another day of strong insolation and near record high temps over much of the region. Rinse and repeat is expected as we move into Friday with morning low clouds giving way to a mix of clouds and sun, although the pressure gradient will tighten significantly given leeside sfc cyclogenesis that will develop over Ern CO Thursday night, and progress E and deepen through the day Friday over Srn NE/WCntrl KS ahead of the next deepening upper trough now moving inland along the W coast. This trough remains progged to advance E into the Nrn/Cntrl Rockies and Four Corners Region by daybreak Friday. Thus, strong Srly winds should help to enhance warm advection, with max temps nearing if not exceeding record highs over much of the region.

As a result, a large warm and moist sector will spread N into the Midwest ahead of this trough, with scattered to numerous areas of convection developing during the afternoon along the attendant dry line as it advances E into the Cntrl and Srn Plains. This convection should eventually outrun the dryline and potentially affect the NW zones by mid to late afternoon. The attendant cold front should overtake the dryline by late evening through the overnight hours, with the bndry slowing as it enters SE OK/Wrn AR by Saturday morning. While the potential for strong to severe convection will persist Friday through at least a portion of Friday night over E TX/SE OK/SW AR, renewed convection development will continue through much of Saturday and possibly Saturday night as the weak front serves as an area of low level convergence as additional perturbations in the SW flow continue to enhance large scale forcing along the front. Heavy rain and the potential for at least localized flooding will exist through this period for all but Cntrl LA, with QPF amounts of 2-4 inches, with isolated 6 inches possible. This beneficial rainfall will certainly alleviate the dire drought conditions in place, but remains to be seen exactly how much drought improvement will be seen, given the potential for excessive runoff.

With the frontal bndry lingering over the region Sunday, additional renewed convection will be possible, as we await for the next closed low that will spin off from the Friday trough and become cut off in VC of Baja over the weekend. This closed low should eventually become absorbed into the main flow by the Monday/Tuesday timeframe, before traversing the Srn Plains by midweek. Thus, the potential for additional severe convection with heavy rain will return to the region by the end of the extended period, although the exact specifics will be better defined as we approach the event pending what occurs this weekend.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR now and decks will continue to scatter and lift during peak heating and into the evening. We will see more IFR/MVFR roll up by midnight for a few E TX sites and areawide overnight through noon. Winds will prevail S/SW 5-15G24KT. There is a little change in this current pattern for KTXK 05/00-06Z as the first round of convection will approach, but may stall very near by before lifting back N overnight. The next push will arrive late Friday for many more terminals and then the frontal boundary Saturday evening with abundant and perhaps heavy convection. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1243 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this evening over portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent Southwest Arkansas. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 84 66 85 66 / 10 10 10 0 MLU 84 65 84 65 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 77 63 79 61 / 40 80 50 10 TXK 84 68 85 66 / 20 40 20 0 ELD 83 64 83 63 / 10 20 10 0 TYR 82 67 84 67 / 20 30 10 10 GGG 83 67 84 67 / 20 20 10 0 LFK 84 66 85 65 / 10 10 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.