textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- No impactful weather expected through Monday as dry conditions and near-normal temperatures prevail across the Four State Region.

- The chance for thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will return on Tuesday and continue Wednesday, potentially bringing the threat for wind, hail, and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Weakening northwest flow is in place over the Ark-La-Tx, allowing for dry conditions and mostly clear skies this afternoon. Flow aloft will become closer to zonal on Monday as a west coast low flattens out the ridge over the Rockies. Even with the changing flow aloft, you can expect mostly clear skies with some fair weather clouds through Monday. The 991mb sfc low in the Northeast should continue to move into the Atlantic and allow for the return of southerly flow off the Gulf, warming up temperatures into the low to mid 80s.

Another active period of weather is expected to begin Tuesday afternoon with the development of a Colorado Low. There is expected to be plenty of low-level moisture return ahead of this system along with building instability. Mid-range models are depicting a line of showers developing across parts of northeast TX through northern AR late afternoon on Tuesday that continues through the evening. SPC already has a slight risk for severe weather out for Tuesday based on the synoptic support and model consistency. Severe weather is expected to continue on Wednesday from this same system and rain could linger as late as Thursday. Temperatures will briefly come back down into the 70s on Thursday before beginning to warm up again.

The previously mentioned west coast low is expected to move inland and across the CONUS at some point. Previous forecast packages have had this moving toward the Mississippi River Valley in the Wednesday/Wednesday night timeframe. This morning's long-range models have slowed down the progression of this low, possibly to come through as late as this weekend after it stalls out over Baja for a few days. This major slowdown in models isn't uncommon for this time of year, but it makes the long range forecast more difficult to pin down. For now, the highest chances of rain are still Tuesday/Wednesday with a risk of severe weather associated with them. Additional shortwave disturbances are possible as the low tries to reintegrate with the larger flow, which could bring more rain to the area after Wednesday. Temperatures that drop a bit on Thursday are likely to rise back up into the 80s to wrap up the forecast period.

57

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

For the 03/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected throughout the period under the influence of strong high pressure at the sfc. Mostly SKC continues aside from some scattered altocumulus at a few sites this morning that will eventually give way to more fair weather cumulus by midday along with increasing high clouds later in the period. Otherwise, expect light and variable to near calm winds through 03/15Z, then becoming SW between 5-10 kts for much of the remaining period along with some occasional higher gusts near 15-20 kts this afternoon at KGGG/KTYR/KTXK.

/19/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 80 58 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 81 56 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 79 53 79 61 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 82 58 82 66 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 80 54 80 61 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 79 58 80 67 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 80 56 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 80 55 82 65 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.