textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Quiet weather will continue today, with more warm temperatures, as afternoon highs climb back into the low to mid 90s

- Some rain chances will return to parts of the region from Tuesday through the end of the work week.

- A cold front is expected to push through the region by the start of next weekend, bringing dry weather and fall-like temperatures into the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Upper-level ridging, along with surface high pressure, will remain over the Four State Region today. This will keep dry conditions in place along with above normal afternoon temperatures, as highs are expected to return back into the low to mid 90s. Upper-ridging is expected to remain in place on Tuesday, but the surface high will shift east of the region. Southerly winds will return in wake of the surface high, which will bring an influx of low-level moisture into the region, yielding higher dewpoints and humidity. Models continue to suggest this rise in moisture, combined with daytime heating, will produce enough instability to ignite some isolated afternoon convection. The best chance for this will be across our East Texas and Louisiana zones, especially south of I-20, although a stray shower or two could develop over the remainder of the region. Some uncertainty remains with the amount of convection, as it could be tough for convection to generate with a 590+ mb upper-ridge firmly over the region. I decided to keep with the NBM POP locations, but I lowered the highest chances to 30 percent.

A pattern shift is still expected for Wednesday and Thursday, as the center of the upper-ridge will shift eastward into the Lower- Mississippi Valley region. At the same time, a close upper trough will eject out of the Great Basin Region into the Central Plains. Ahead of that trough, the flow aloft will become more southwesterly, including areas as far south as our I-30 corridor. The remainder of the region or areas south of the I-30 corridor, should remain under the influence of the aforementioned ridge. This set-up could result in much different weather across the region, as dry weather would likely continue for areas beneath the ridge, while disturbances would bring rain chances for locations within the southwest flow. Again, some uncertainty still remains with this outlook, as the eastward progression of the ridge will greatly determine the development of southwest flow over the region. It is very possible that rain chances could stay just to the north and west of the region. However, decided not to deviate much from the NBM with this package, and keep rain chances across our northwestern zones during this period. By the end of the week into the start of next weekend, long-term progs continue to eject the Great Basin trough into the upper Midwest, which would drive a cold front across the region. These models are backing off on rainfall along the front, but they continue to bring a much cooler airmass into the region, with overnight lows possibly falling into the the 40s next weekend. Unfortunately, the lack of significant rainfall will remain a major concern with severe to extreme drought and elevated fire conditions over the area. /20/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

For the 12/12Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs will eventually give way to MVFR/IFR as southerly surface winds (at 5-10 kts) reintroduce enough Gulf moisture for BKN020 cloud decks to form after 13/09Z across the southern and western two-thirds of the airspace. Until then, some Cu fields may develop in the process of moisture advection across the airspace, but not enough to produce any meaningful/impactful convection. /16/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 91 71 92 73 / 0 0 20 0 MLU 93 65 94 68 / 0 0 10 0 DEQ 92 67 93 70 / 0 0 10 0 TXK 92 70 93 72 / 0 0 10 0 ELD 93 66 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 91 74 93 75 / 0 10 20 0 GGG 92 71 93 72 / 0 10 20 0 LFK 91 72 91 72 / 10 10 30 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.