textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Heat advisory headlines continue now through Wednesday at 7pm. and likely beyond for short term in the late work week.

- Rain chances are slight again for Wednesday, but overall remain slim to none through the remainder of this week into the first half of the weekend as drier air lobes in from the east.

- Some good news is that the upper level heat ridge will weaken while retrograding westward with an upper low drifting westward over the northern Gulf. This will provide lowering heights aloft, more lift and some increasing rain chances for us.

UPDATE

Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Added a little slight chance wording for showers or an isolated thunderstorm in our far eastern parishes and Union county for this afternoon with some coverage present already in the delta.

/24/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Our 2pm temperatures are widely ranging from 91 at Jacksonville to 98 at Mount Pleasant with partly cloudy skies and southerly winds. A weak front is approaching the MS River with a range of 60 degree dew points over eastern MS and even lower low to mid 60s across AL now. This front will edge westward into our area over the next few days with lowering min RH each afternoon through Friday. The showers today in our far east will be possible just west of I-49 for Wednesday with more slight PoPs in the heart of our area tomorrow.

So this will also help to knock back the Heat Index in the coming days. Perhaps we can improve the all day and night positioning of the heat advisory area through the remaining work week with afternoon blocks of time. Our air temperatures will remain hot in the mid to upper 90s for most locales through the week, but start to ease back on the indices late week and weekend. This sprawling surface air mass extends from a 1028mb core over the mid Atlantic states and will help to bump the upper level ridge's core westward and even weaken it a little down from 600dam over TN on Wednesday to 597dam over AR by Friday.

At the same time, the well advertised upper low over the Gulf is currently an inverted trough approaching the SE U.S. This feature will close off over FL by early Friday and move offshore, farther out into the Gulf. So it will take time to slide across the Gulf, but the GFS and ECMWF deepen this low to 584dam by early next week. The GFS is much closer for us with a core south of New Orleans, while the ECMWF expands the core over the eastern Gulf. The remaining upper ridge in our neck of the woods will further meet it's demise down to 591dam over the lone Star State by this time next week as we put a bow on Summer 2026 with the westerlies.

So all of this will boost our rain chances with less subsidence and help to cool the hot temps back closer to average. The trend continues peaking ahead to next Friday as a bowling ball at 565dam swings across the middle MS River Valley. This will bring our best coverage of rainfall at that time, until then isolated activity falls off for this weekend and picks up again early next week with that Gulf upper which low brings back richer dew points for rain making in the diurnal realm for not only us, but much of the deep south. /24/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For the 16/00Z TAF update, mostly VFR vis/cigs are expected once again in a relatively quiet pattern under high pressure. Drier conditions will continue across the airspace with light southerly winds returning at 5-10 kts by the end of the period. MVFR/IFR cigs return as the only notable exception to VFR by 16/10Z-15Z across KLFK and the southwestern airspace. /16/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 78 98 77 97 / 0 20 0 0 MLU 76 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 72 98 72 98 / 0 10 0 0 TXK 76 98 76 98 / 0 10 0 0 ELD 74 99 73 99 / 10 10 0 0 TYR 76 98 76 98 / 0 10 0 0 GGG 76 100 75 100 / 0 20 0 0 LFK 75 95 75 95 / 0 10 0 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.