textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Hot and humid conditions will persist today through this weekend, although some respite to the heat will be possible today mainly over portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and Southeast Oklahoma as scattered showers and storms will be possible.

- The approach of a weak cool front Sunday/Sunday night will result in an increase in showers and thunderstorms over much of the region, which could linger into at least Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Convection that developed late this afternoon over Nrn/Cntrl/SW OK into NW TX and the TX South Plains along a weak cold front has surprisingly diminished greatly within the last few hours, aside for isolated convection S of SPS, with a more organized but compact cluster between MKO and FYV in Ern OK/NW AR. The 00Z HREF initialized much too bullish with the convection early this evening and thus is not reliable for the short term forecast, with the HRRR not much help either as it remains a little too bullish as well, although the 04Z run does initialize on the ongoing convection over far Ern OK/NW AR better than the 00Z NAM/GFS. But that doesn't give much confidence with the short term forecast in terms of convection placement/coverage as the weak sfc bndry may continue to drift a bit farther SE overnight, but should remain N of the region through the day today, unless the aforementioned convection over Ern OK/NW AR is able to reinforce the front S. Given the low confidence, have tapered back pops to mid and high chance this morning mainly along/NW of I-30, with the potential that the convection well to our N is able to build farther SSE into Wrn AR through/after daybreak.

A weak shear axis over Nrn AR near the ongoing convection associated with upper troughing swinging through the Great Lakes Region this morning remains progged to drift SE through this afternoon, with potential mesoscale bndrys and strong heating/instability contributing to the potential for isolated to scattered convection as it may build from N to S, possibly reaching the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA by afternoon. Did undercut the more aggressive NBM pops which initialized much too high with the lack of convection now, with any convection able to build S today expected to diminish around sunset. Max temps today should be comparable to what was observed Thursday especially along/S of I-20, with heat indices again marginal around 105 degrees across portions of E TX/N LA and thus have held off on a Heat Advisory for these areas.

Flat ridging aloft extending from Srn Old MX across TX and the Gulf Coast remains progged to begin expanding back N a touch late tonight/Saturday, thus eroding any remaining resemblance of the shear axis in place, while promoting more widespread subsidence over the region. As a result, a return to more widespread hot, humid, and dry conditions is expected, with max temps again climbing into the mid 90s across most areas, with resultant heat indices ranging from 100-105 degrees. Shortwave energy aloft beginning to traverse OK/AR Sunday will help to slowly erode the Nrn extent of the ridge in place, which will also help reinforce a weak cool front S into the region. The jury remains out as to how quickly the front will shift S, assuming it is not convectively reinforced S like the ECMWF, although deepening theta-e advection over E TX/N LA Sunday afternoon may help to invigorate the seabreeze as weak ripples aloft begin to enter the region in VC of the approaching front. Thus, convection should gradually increase through the day, persisting along the weak front Sunday night/Monday before drier air behind the amplifying longwave trough begins to entrain SE into the region Monday night/Tuesday, diminishing the convection from NW to SE. Tropical moisture common across Nrn Old MX this weekend/early this next week remains progged to advect E into the region along the base of the longwave trough, which may help to enhance rainfall efficiency, with QPF's of 1-3+ inches possible over much of our drought impacted area. A welcome reprieve to the heat is also expected through the first half of the new work week, before near to above normal temps return for the remainder of the extended. Additional storm chances remain uncertain though given the considerable spread in model ensemble solutions.

15

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Mostly MVFR cigs prevail across the region with a few VFR and one LIFR site. Cigs should lift and scatter a bit through the morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving in from the northwest and is expected to bring impacts to KTXK and possibly KTYR and KGGG before weakening. VCSH could be possible at other locations as the line continues to move, but current guidance is uncertain here. Winds will mostly be southwesterly except for a period this evening with some variable wind directions before returning to be southwesterly overnight. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this morning across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas for the potential of isolated strong storms containing heavy rainfall. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 94 76 95 78 / 20 10 0 0 MLU 96 76 96 78 / 20 10 0 0 DEQ 89 75 92 75 / 50 10 10 50 TXK 94 77 96 78 / 40 10 10 20 ELD 92 75 94 77 / 30 10 10 10 TYR 94 77 95 78 / 20 10 0 0 GGG 94 76 95 78 / 20 10 0 0 LFK 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.