textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Fire weather will remain the primary forecast concern through Wednesday given dry fuels and increasing winds.

- Moderate to locally heavy rainfall then becomes a concern late in the week and through the weekend with isolated flash flooding possible before soils can absorb the moisture.

- A Marginal Severe Weather Risk will accompany the increasing rain chances on Thursday, where thunderstorms may pose the threat for damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

This afternoon, the mid and upper levels feature an elongated, positively tilted ridge of high pressure extending from East Texas through the Midwest and Eastern Great Lakes. Loosely organized troughing is noted downstream of this feature around the FL Panhandle, meanwhile upstream from the ridge lies a much more noteworthy trough of low pressure over the Desert SW with the remnants of Hurricane Polo being ingested into the broader scale cyclonic flow on its eastern flank. Near the surface, a weak and generally stationary boundary still lingers across Central OK into East Texas, Southern LA and along the Gulf Coast. An expansive area of high pressure exists to its north and northeast, encompassing much of the US east of the Rocky Mountains.

Another hot and dry day to prevail through the remainder of this Tuesday, with fire weather being the main forecast concern. While criteria is not being met for any fire weather headlines, winds across East Texas this afternoon will be periodically gusty and while the corresponding minimum RH values will remain around 40 percent, very dry soils and fuels will make for easy fire starts and fast fire spreads. Lower minimum RH values this afternoon across the rest of the CWA will also make for very easy fire starts and rapid fire spreads despite lighter winds. High temperatures to round off in the low to mid 90s this afternoon as ridging aloft provides large scale subsidence and high pressure keeps conditions tranquil near the surface.

The pattern will begin to change rather quickly by Wednesday, at least just upstream of the CWA. Deterministic, ensemble, and available hi-res guidance continue to trend towards the slower advancement of rain chances. As the Desert SW trough begins to progress eastward, it will contain abundant tropical-Pacific moisture with it and is expected to induce lee cyclogenesis across the Southern Rockies or OK Panhandle. As associated frontal boundaries then develop on Wednesday, an overall slow progression of the system as a whole will keep widespread and heavy rainfall chances to the west of the Four State Region. As such, the WPC ERO has trended back, as the first real appreciable chance for moisture reaching the area now looks to be very early on Thursday. One more hot day will ensue, with highs on Wednesday in the 90s and dewpoints rising back into the 70s as southerly winds ramp up and become gusty at times. Given that fuels and soils remain critically dry, and that winds become gusty out of the south at 20-25 kts in many locations, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Wednesday areawide.

A widespread area of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will approach SE OK and portions of NE TX early Thursday. With the upper level trough beginning to dampen, it appears that moisture will decrease along and ahead of the frontal boundary as it makes very slow eastward progress through the day (unless a shortwave can round the base of the trough and induce a surface wave along the front). Nevertheless, East Texas and SE OK are likely to see rainfall. Initial runoff before soil absorption could pose a threat for some localized flash flooding, along with urban flooding which is highlighted by WPC in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. An isolated severe weather threat may also accompany the frontal boundary and areas just ahead of it, with damaging wind from wet microbursts being the main concern given the lack of appreciable shear. The SPC has highlighted this area in a Marginal risk. Increasing rain chances and more cloud cover will help knock high temperatures down a few degrees, mostly west of the I-49 corridor on Thursday. Areas east will see another hot day.

Provided that the upper low gets rapidly absorbed into the stronger belt of westerly flow across the northern half of the US on Friday, and what's left of upper level support is a loosely organized weak trough of low pressure over TX, the frontal boundary is expected to have a hard time making eastward progress on Friday. Rainfall chances will still increase throughout the day in tandem with daytime heating along the front and unstable southerly flow ahead of it. This general trend will carry through the weekend, with a weakening frontal boundary and an unstable airmass ahead of it redeveloping showers and thunderstorms, all possibly enhanced by northward moving Gulf moisture by the end of the forecast period. Temperatures this weekend will take a noticeable tumble, with some areas struggling to reach 80 degrees by Sunday and lows dipping into the 60s. Suffice it to say, at least somewhat of a quick taste of Fall looks like a decent possibility by early next week as the front finally clears.

Kovacik

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

For the 18z TAF cycle...VFR conditions to prevail through the terminal forecast cycle with the exception of tempo MVFR ceilings possible across TYR/LFK near daybreak as southerly flow advects low- level moisture northward. Southeast winds up to 10 knots today to increase to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts on Wednesday. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 72 94 74 93 / 0 0 0 20 MLU 68 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 10 DEQ 68 94 70 90 / 0 0 10 60 TXK 71 94 74 92 / 0 0 0 40 ELD 67 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 72 94 74 91 / 0 0 10 70 GGG 70 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 50 LFK 71 92 73 91 / 0 10 10 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.