textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Near record high temperatures for the first week of March will continue across the Four State Region this week.

- Thunderstorm chances return to the northwest half of the region during the day Wed into Wed Night and more areawide Friday through the weekend. - Some of these storms have the potential to be strong to severe Wed/Wed Night as well as Friday through the weekend along with locally heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Another beautiful warm day across the Four State Region today with afternoon highs ranging mostly in the lower 80s except for a small area northwest of the I-30 Corridor where low cloud cover kept high temperatures in the 70s. We should see some stratus returning overnight, along with the potential for some patchy fog once again across our southern and eastern zones before another warm day on Tuesday with some record temperatures possible across a few locations under partly cloudy skies.

Flat upper ridging will move ovhd today before shifting east of our region Tngt into Wed as an upper level trough moves into the Intermountain West. This trough will slowly pivot east and northeast thru Thursday and there may be just enough forcing across our far northwest counties to support the threat for severe thunderstorms late Wed/Wed Night, especially if a cold front can move further south and east into the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX into SE OK. Latest progs are suggesting that this boundary which would help to serve as the initiation point for this intense convection late in the day on Wed may not move much further south and east than the most farthest northwest portion of NE TX and SE OK and thus if this trend continues, we may see SPC trim back their MRGL and SLGT risks along the eastern edges of both risks areas Wed/Wed Night.

With the loss of the above mentioned trough's upper forcing and with the sfc features in association with the trough retreating back to the north on Thu, our northwest region will likely see a break in convective coverage and intensity until Friday Afternoon/Night. The upper level setup by then will be a vigorous upper level longwave trough moving into the Intermountain West once again, much stronger and more deeply amplified than its predecessor. This feature appears to stay locked to this portion of the country through the upcoming weekend, with a piece of energy embedded in the trough forecast to eject out into the Central and Northern Plains late on Friday. It must be noted that the bulk of energy stays in the base of the trough which cuts off across the far southwest Great Basin and offshore Baja California. Friday through Sunday's convection will be greatly dependent on the ejection of the above mentioned troughs ability to push a sfc boundary south and east into the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX/SE OK/SW AR once again along with rather weak upper forcing.

Long story short, the rain is coming but it may take until the end of the week or upcoming weekend before a majority of our region gets into the much needed rainfall.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR cigs are likely to begin developing over our southern zones over the next few hours and move northward through daybreak Tuesday. The Deep East TX terminals could see brief dips into IFR territory, but most sites should remain MVFR until clouds lift later in the morning. Fog development is possible, although less likely than previous nights due to the elevated winds. Surface winds should stay southerly with afternoon sustained winds around 10 kts across the region, with gusts of 20 kts possible for western terminals. Winds are expected to weaken slightly Tuesday evening and stay around 5-10 kts through the end of the period.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Tonight but will likely become necessary across far northwest portions of Northeast Texas into Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas late Wednesday into Wednesday Night..

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 82 64 84 66/ 0 0 20 20 MLU 82 62 83 64/ 0 0 10 10 DEQ 79 59 78 58/ 10 20 60 70 TXK 82 64 82 66/ 0 10 40 50 ELD 80 60 82 61/ 0 0 20 20 TYR 82 65 82 66/ 0 0 50 40 GGG 82 63 83 64/ 0 0 40 30 LFK 82 65 83 65/ 10 0 30 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.