textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Areas of rain will primarily affect the western half of the region this afternoon before diminishing this evening.

- Additional convection redevelopment is possible late tonight across East Texas, before expanding east into extreme Southwest Arkansas and Western Louisiana after daybreak Wednesday.

- While periods of unsettled weather will continue Thursday through the upcoming weekend, warmer and more humid conditions will return to the region and persist through the remainder of the extended period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The early afternoon mosaic radar imagery indicates an expansive area of RA that has gradually spread E across much of E TX and into extreme SE OK and Wrn LA. Despite the presence of the sfc ridge having shifted E into the SE states today, resulting in a light SSErly flow return to the region, the low level air mass remains quite dry, and having to saturate from the top down as the RA areas advance E. This RA area remains driven by a shortwave trough depicted well in the afternoon water vapor imagery over the Middle Red River Valley of Srn OK/N TX, which remains progged to drift E across the region tonight. The air mass farther E across Srn AR/much of N LA remains quite dry though, with the latest mesoanalysis depicting PW's of 0.5-1.0 inches over this area. Thus, the RA area should gradually diminish some with time this afternoon evening as it encounters the deeper drier air, but have expanded low pops back E into Srn AR/NCntrl LA as some -RA may still fall from these lowering AC cigs spreading E.

The various short term progs, including the hi-res models, suggest that additional scattered convection development may occur late tonight (around or after 09Z) across E TX, especially as low level moisture advection increases and deepens in VC of the trailing shortwave trough, and thus have bumped pops back up to mid chance to reflect that potential. This convection should begin to shift E into portions of SW AR/Wrn LA by/after daybreak Wednesday, but gradually weaken with time as again, it encounters the drier air to the E. The progs also hint at another weak shortwave that may drop SE across ECntrl and SE TX Wednesday afternoon, which may help initiate scattered convection redevelopment across this area into Wrn LA. This is where the highest pops were concentrated, generally in the high chance to likely category. Did maintain slight chance pops during the evening across portions of Deep E TX/WCntrl LA to account for any lingering convection as suggested by the various hi-res progs, but otherwise, mostly dry and quiet conditions are expected with the increase in low cigs from the S late. Any isolated convection Thursday should be diurnally driven and confined to portions of Deep E TX/N LA/Srn AR, before diminishing around sunset.

The medium range ensembles continue to diverge Friday but remain consistent with their earlier respective runs, as a lead shortwave ejects ENE beneath and ahead of the primary upper low/trough extending from the Nrn High Plains S into KS/MO Friday morning. This initial shortwave trough ejection should help initiate convection development Thursday night along the attendant cold front across Ern KS/Nrn OK, with the convection likely reinforcing the front SE into SE OK/Wrn AR by afternoon (per the 12Z Euro ensembles). The GEFS continues to suggest a slower frontal movement than its Euro counterparts, mainly due to the fact that the deeper convection development Thursday night will be farther E along the bndry from the Ozarks into the Midwest, thus hanging the front up over Nrn OK into Nrn AR. In any case, portions of SE OK/SW AR may still remain under the influence by weak forcing along the base of the broad trough, which may enhance scattered convection redevelopment during the afternoon/evening, which may migrate into portions of N LA/adjacent E TX. However, the severe threat still appears conditional attm given the unknowns as to whether or not the front or associated mesoscale bndrys from the Thursday night convection will play a role in convection development, as well as the lack of height falls or better defined forcing mechanisms aloft. The GFS is also suffering from apparent feedback issues Friday night with deeper convection farther away from the existing SPC SVR risk area, with the forecast further refined as the probable event nears.

Needless to say, given the lack of agreement amongst the various medium range progs for late week, low confidence persists regards the convection evolution and severe threat this weekend into early next week. But in all likelihood, confidence remains high enough though that periods of unsettled weather will continue across at least portions of the region this weekend into early next week.

15

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

For the 22/00z TAF update...Radar imagery continues to show light rain showers and drizzle across portions of the area, so I have maintained VCSH and -RA for KSHV, KTXK, KTYR, and KLFK for the next couple of hours. While VFR CIGs currently prevail, we will see them drop to MVFR tonight across the entire region before improving again on Wednesday morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Wednesday, and have maintained mention of this for all terminals around or after 22/09z. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through Wednesday. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 58 78 63 83 / 40 50 10 10 MLU 59 81 61 85 / 20 20 0 20 DEQ 53 74 59 81 / 30 30 10 20 TXK 56 77 63 85 / 30 40 10 10 ELD 55 78 58 83 / 20 30 10 20 TYR 58 78 65 83 / 40 40 10 10 GGG 56 77 64 83 / 40 50 10 10 LFK 58 79 63 84 / 40 60 20 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.