textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Fire weather will continue to be the main forecast concern through Tuesday as hot and dry conditions persist.

- A pattern change with a tropical Pacific moisture influence will increase rain chances across the area beginning as early as Wednesday and continue through the weekend.

- Persistent drought conditions could make for a threat for flash flooding later this week before soils are able to absorb the moisture as rain accumulates over several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon reveals a positively tilted ridge of high pressure extending from the Texas Big Bend area through the Southern and Central Great Plains into the Midwest and through the heart of the Great Lakes. Downstream from this feature exists a closed area of low pressure across the Northeast US with trough influence extending into the Southeast, while upstream from the ridge exists another closed low across Southern CA, with Hurricane Polo to the south near the Coast of Baja, the two of which will make for an active weather pattern downstream over the next week. Near the surface, a weak frontal boundary lies across the Red River of TX/OK into Central LA and along the Gulf Coast, with expansive high pressure on its north side encompassing much of the central and eastern US.

For the remainder of today across the Four State Region, a generally tranquil weather day will continue. Near the weak frontal boundary, a dewpoint and PW gradient is evident and forcing along the boundary in tandem with daytime heating is likely to spark isolated showers and thunderstorms through sunset on the moist side of the boundary, generally along and west of a line from Mount Pleasant to Nacogdoches. Severe weather is not expected, although gusty winds could briefly accompany thunderstorms.

On Tuesday the ridge axis will move over the local area, providing better subsidence. This will help limit convective development throughout the day despite the lingering presence of the weak frontal boundary. High temperatures will also tick up a degree or two with afternoon readings in the low to mid 90s. Fire weather will continue to be a concern Monday and Tuesday given persistent dry conditions and continued hot temperatures.

The weather forecast gets more interesting by mid-week. Before discussing this, on Tuesday the remnants of Hurricane Polo will become absorbed by the progressing area of closed low pressure emerging out of southern CA. This will bring a surge of tropical Pacific moisture northward into the desert SW and Southern Rockies. This area of closed low pressure is then expected to be centered somewhere around the state of New Mexico on Wednesday, inducing sfc cyclogenesis on the leeward side of the Southern Rockies. As these mechanisms work to create widespread precipitation with the aid of tropical Pacific moisture, the heaviest moisture will remain to the west of the Four State Region on Wednesday, with perhaps a few showers and thunderstorms across East Texas during the afternoon and evening as increasing southerly low level flow from the Gulf moves northward on the western periphery of surface high pressure over the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast.

The main question thereafter will be the eventual arrival of the widespread rain as SW flow aloft remains in place as the closed low gradually dampens and becomes an open wave trough at some point on Thursday as it travels into the Central Plains. The migration of the upper trough into the Central Plains is likely to slow the frontal boundary with which the rain is accompanying, likely only making it into SE OK and NE TX by day's end with spotty showers closer to the TX/LA border and into SW AR.

By Friday, the upper level trough will have trouble remaining organized and this will likely weaken the sfc frontal boundary and associated sfc low reflections. While the result will still be increasing rain chances on Friday, overall amounts are beginning to look a bit less aggressive than previous forecasts were implying. While more rain would be needed to help alleviate drought concerns, the good news in this realm is that the slow progression of the frontal boundary through the area along with lingering upper level troughing point to an unsettled weather pattern through the weekend where scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms are expected. Another point of uncertainty at the end of this forecast period is whether there will be tropical moisture or a tropical wave moving NW from the Gulf to enhance precipitation through the weekend should it interact with the front. Not seeing enough consistency in the guidance to trend a forecast towards this evolution but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on. High temperatures through the weekend will drop back into the 80s. A flash flooding threat may initially materialize with the onset of any heavy rainfall Thursday and Friday before soils are able to absorb the moisture. Given the current drought conditions, do think that this threat will lessen though the weekend as soils become more saturated.

Kovacik

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Partly cloudy skies persist over parts of Deep East TX where a stationary front has been settled for most of the day. This cloud cover is expected to stay VFR and push further eastward to cover most sites beginning early tomorrow morning. Winds will generally stay light and easterly overnight, even dropping near-calm in spots. KLFK will be on watch for some fog development tomorrow morning depending on moisture return and how quickly cloud cover moves in. Winds are expected to shift southeasterly and strengthen from the west after daybreak tomorrow, with Deep East TX terminals possibly gusting around 15 kts during the afternoon. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 69 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 63 94 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 63 93 67 93 / 0 0 0 20 TXK 66 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 61 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 70 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 20 GGG 67 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 68 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.