textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- An unusually deep upper trough for July will hold court across the Mid/Lower MS Valley today and tonight, maintaining elevated rain chances along with low-end severe and flash flooding risks.

- The trough axis is expected to lift NE of our region by late Wednesday with rain chances gradually diminishing through the end of the week.

- Upper ridging will begin to exert a greater influence across our region by late week, which points to hotter and drier conditions with only minimal rain chances through at least Saturday before increasing later in the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The past 12 hours yielded a very active period of severe weather by early July standards with numerous convective warnings and the subsequent storm damage reports to follow. The primary culprit for this ongoing event is an unusually strong and deep trough, largely induced between the ridge axes flanked to the east and west within the longwave pattern. This pattern will persist with little change today into tonight as the associated closed low drifts ever slowly across the Mid and Lower MS Valley. Given that convection is still ongoing early this morning, expect another active day of showers and thunderstorms as daytime heating will only further destabilize the atmosphere once again. This includes the threat of more severe storms and isolated flash flooding, mainly in areas with training convection. Damaging wind gusts remain primary for the severe risk with large hail still a secondary threat. Expect the severe threat to linger into the evening once again before gradually diminishing after midnight.

Beyond the next 24 hours, the upper trough axis is progged to lift NE away from our region and with that goes the higher rain chances from the past few days. However, isolated to widely scattered convection will remain possible on Wednesday before dropping off more considerably by late week through at least the first half of the upcoming weekend. The resulting pattern shift will allow for upper ridging to become much more of an influence during this late week timeframe, yielding hotter temperatures with the increasing subsidence aloft. High temperatures should nudge back toward the mid 90s at a minimum with some isolated upper 90s not out of the question for Thursday and Friday.

By this weekend, more recent trends in the medium-range guidance suggests our region falling between the pair of competing ridges once again. The stronger ridge out west begins to build more NE from the Four-Corners Region into the Rockies while the Bermuda ridge to our SE hovers just off the coast of FL near the Bahamas. This will leave our region effectively in another area of induced troughing with rain chances trending higher by Sunday into early next week. Fortunately, this should allow for high temperatures to ease back just slightly into the lower to mid 90s once again.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Despite a well worked over lower atmosphere, we continue to see renewed convective development across much of our airspace, mainly near and north of the I-20 Corridor. This activity will continue pushing southward overnight and could impact all I-20 terminals before sunrise. Followed the latest HREF output closely concerning convection during the day Thursday which suggests scattered morning convection possible across much of our airspace followed by afternoon convection mostly confined to terminals near and south of the I-20 Corridor. Believe we should stay mostly VFR through the TAF period outside of impacts from convection which would of course result in TEMPO lower VSBY and ceilings. Again, look for mostly variable winds near or below 10kts outside of convection except much stronger and gusty with thunderstorms.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Spotter activation may be needed again today through tonight as the threat of isolated to scattered severe storms could return through at least this evening, if not into the overnight hours.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 91 74 93 77 / 60 40 40 10 MLU 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 40 10 DEQ 91 70 93 74 / 30 20 20 10 TXK 93 72 95 76 / 30 20 20 10 ELD 90 71 92 74 / 20 20 30 10 TYR 94 75 95 78 / 50 20 30 0 GGG 93 74 94 77 / 60 30 40 0 LFK 94 75 95 76 / 30 20 20 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.