textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- A prolonged period of unsettled weather will bring both chances for severe weather and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall through most of the forecast period.

- Impacts from thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain will generally range from gusty winds, hail, and possibly urban flash flooding.

- Above normal temperatures to begin the work week will quickly trend below normal by mid and late week due to enhanced cloud cover and stormy conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

The upper level pattern at the time of this writing continues to be characterized by longwave troughing/cyclonic flow that extends from roughly the West Coast of the US and through the Rockies and into the Great Plains. Within this longwave trough exists a notable area of closed low pressure in the Great Basin vicinity, and can be easily detecting in water vapor imagery. Downstream from the longwave trough, a low-amplitude ridge is defined across the Southeastern US and into the Mid-Atlantic region. A look closer to the surface reveals an area of high pressure centered around Bermuda, with its ridge influence extending westward across the OH/TN Valleys and into the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. A surface cyclone is detected near the OK/KS border, with a dryline located to its South across the TX panhandle and towards the Big Bend region.

The above analysis places the Four State Region in deep SW aloft on the eastern flank of the longwave trough going into the overnight period tonight, with enhanced southerly low level flow streaming off the Gulf and making for a continued moist and unstable environment. Convection has recently sparked, likely aided in part by some warm air advection in the 850-700mb layer and perhaps the passage of some subtle vort maxes in the SW flow. This activity will wind down towards and after midnight, with an unseasonably warm night in store for the local area with lows in the low to mid 70s (with some areas hanging in the upper 70s).

Monday will potentially be the driest day of the upcoming week, and really the forecast period. A cloudy and humid start should be anticipated. Isolated showers could be lingering across portions of the area, but coverage will wait to increase until daytime heating works in tandem with the moist and unstable conditions already in place. This should yield between 1000-2000J/kg of MLCAPE, possibly aided by subtle vort max activity. Without a distinct mechanism for large scale forcing in place on Monday, isolated single-cell activity can be expected, mainly carrying a threat for a brief period of small hail and gusty winds. A fairly tight synoptic scale pressure gradient throughout the day will yield breezy and gusty conditions area-wide on Monday, with areas across East Texas flirting with Wind Advisory Criteria. Currently do not think conditions will be widespread enough to warrant an advisory but near- term and/or real-time observations could dictate otherwise.

A prolonged and very unsettled weather pattern will then take shape beginning Tuesday. A progressive northern stream shortwave trough across the Northern Great Plains within the longwave trough will help drive a cold front towards the local area on Tuesday. As the front propagates towards the area and eventually into the area during the afternoon and evening hours, it will encounter the very moist and unstable conditions present across our region. Lift along the front, along with the help of what appears to be a rather sufficient shortwave trough across Central TX looks to yield our next potential for severe weather. Ample instability and at least modest mid level lapse rates could lead to a wind and hail threat across the area. The lacking ingredient within this setup will be deep layer shear, which could inhibit updraft organization, however, there could still remain just enough to be problematic.

By mid-week, this cold front will stall across the region. With rather good agreement amongst the ensemble solutions regarding the upper level pattern continuing to feature troughing off the Baja region, deep SW flow and a continued stream of H5 disturbances could promise decent potential for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall through the rest of the work week and likely even into the Memorial Day weekend. Where exactly the front stalls and where the most probable areas/regions of potential heavy rainfall within its vicinity is challenging to determine this far out. So the bottom line will emphasize that confidence is at least high in a prolonged period of unsettled weather and moderate to high rain and thunderstorm chances. Severe weather potential appears low, but this may change. Below normal temperatures can also be expected with the unsettled pattern, provided more cloud cover and anticipated periods of rainfall.

CK

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently across NE TX into NW LA should continue flirting with a few terminals across SW AR and N LA for a few more hours but should show a weakening trend in both coverage and intensity the closer we get to sunrise. Otherwise, expect a return to MVFR ceilings to overspread our terminal sites overnight with those ceilings continuing through mid to late morning. Afterward, should see ceilings lifting and/or scattering out by late morning into the afternoon hours. Cannot rule out an isolated TSRA across our airspace with the aid of daytime heating continuing into the evening hours but coverage will not warrant a mention in this 06z package. Otherwise the gradient wind is another obstacle to deal with today with sustained SSE to S winds near 10- 16kt by mid morning with gusts once again near 30kts. Strongest gusts should be across our NE TX terminal locations where pressure gradient will be a little tighter. Those winds should begin decoupling after sunset Monday Evening. 13

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Monday, however, it may be needed on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 88 75 89 74 / 20 10 20 30 MLU 89 74 90 73 / 30 10 20 20 DEQ 86 73 88 72 / 20 20 20 30 TXK 88 75 90 74 / 20 20 20 30 ELD 87 73 88 72 / 20 20 20 20 TYR 89 76 89 75 / 20 20 10 30 GGG 89 75 89 75 / 20 20 10 30 LFK 88 75 89 75 / 20 20 20 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.