textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Upper ridging will become the key player to our forecast for the upcoming weekend and into virtually all of next week.

- Upper ridging means virtually no rain chances through the 7-day forecast.

- Upper ridging also means our Four State Region will likely experience the hottest temperatures so far this summer by the early and middle part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Earlier Friday Afternoon and early Evening, our region likely saw the end of isolated to widely scattered convection for the foreseeable future as a weak seabreeze boundary did make it as far north as the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country of Deep East Texas and West Central Louisiana. We say this because weak upper ridging across the NW Gulf will expand northward, virtually encompassing our entire region for Saturday and Sunday. Upper ridging will help to suppress convective chances. In addition, upper ridging also compresses the atmosphere which heats the atmosphere up and thus, persistence would suggest that we will continue to warm up a few degrees every day through the upcoming weekend.

By the time we pivot into the upcoming work week, upper ridging across the Intermountain West will begin expanding south and east into the Upper and Middle Red River Valley and it's this pattern that will likely result in the hottest temperatures thus far this Summer across the Four State Region with high temperatures on Monday mostly in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees and near 100 to near 103 degrees both Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. We should see dewpoints mixing down during the peak heating hours of the day across most areas next week but regardless, heat indices will be near or exceeding 105 degrees across most areas and thus, Heat Advisories will likely become necessary as early as Monday with those continuing most all of next week. Could be flirting with Extreme Heat Warnings across our eastern half next week as we may not see dewpoints mixing down as low as they likely will closer to the upper ridge axis across our western and northwestern zones.

The only fly in the ointment to this excessive heat the next 7+ days is the upper trough across the northeast Gulf which could begin exhibiting tropical characteristics over the upcoming weekend. There continues to be some progs which show enough of a weakness in the building upper ridge across the Lower Miss Valley by early next week to bring this system more westward or closer to the SE LA coast. Even if such a solution were to verify, our region would remain on the drier northwest wide of such system unless progs are way overdoing the strength of the upper ridge which is about the only way we would see any precipitation out of such system. All this to say, we will have plenty of time to watch the evolution of this gulf system through the weekend into early next week. While the tropics are the eye candy when it comes to news headlines, the much more news worthy weather maker which everyone should prepare for across our region is the intense heat through the next 7 or more. Heat that can kill if you are not prepared for it.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

For the 18/06Z TAFs, SCT to BKN high clouds will persist through the night. Some lowering to SCT MVFR decks near or just after sunrise will be possible, primarily at our east Texas terminals. Elsewhere, VFR CIGs are expected throughout, with high clouds continuing and a fair wx Cu field developing by late morning to early afternoon. Light winds overnight will become southwesterly through the day at maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 94 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 96 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 93 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 96 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 95 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 94 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 95 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 94 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.