textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Cooler conditions this afternoon will give way to much warmer and more humid conditions Monday.

- Aside from the potential for isolated showers across East- central Louisiana Monday, dry conditions are expected throughout the Christmas holiday week into the first half of the holiday weekend.

- Near record warmth will return to much of the region by Christmas Eve, and persist through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

The midday sfc and satellite analysis indicates our shallow cold front has almost cleared the Srn parishes and counties of our CWA in Cntrl LA and Deep E TX, with the LA Mesonet webcams confirming that areas of FG having lifted and winds have shifted to the NE with the fropa. As expected, any -RA has been light and very spotty, with only the Jena Mesonet station in La Salle Parish having recorded measurable rainfall since after daybreak this morning. With the departure of the front to our S, a dry forecast is in the offing through much of the short-term period, as the front drifts to near the I-10 corridor of SW LA/extreme SE TX into portions of Acadiana. The extensive post-frontal stratocu field evident behind the front over much of E TX/N LA/extreme Srn AR is expected to return back NNW later this afternoon and especially this evening, as the H925 flow begins to veer more SE. Meanwhile, given the position of the stalled front farther S than earlier progs, the Nwd return into our region and hence, any FG development, will be a bit delayed. Still can't rule out patchy FG though across our Srn tier counties and parishes just prior to daybreak Monday, before advecting farther N into Lower E TX/N LA S of the I-20 corridor through mid-morning before lifting. Did not deviate much from the NBM min temps tonight, but will note that low temps will likely occur by or shortly after midnight, before remaining steady or slowly rising late as the front to our S begins to lift back N.

While the front will wash out Monday morning as it lifts N into the region, the broad warm/moist sector will quickly expand N into the Lower MS Valley through the day. Thus, the return of above normal temps is expected as a SSW low level flow deepens over the area, even as the low clouds will be stubborn to lift. Some of the hi-res progs continue to hint at isolated warm advection -SHRA developing by afternoon from the Lower Toledo Bend Country into much of NCntrl LA, but have again scaled back the higher NBM pops by 10-20% to slight chance given the shallow nature of the low level moisture and lack of deep lyr forcing.

Flat ridging aloft noted on the water vapor imagery over Baja and Nrn Old MX remains progged to expand E into WCntrl and S TX Monday, and eventually E and N across the remainder of the Srn Plains and the Mid and Lower MS Valley by Tuesday. Increased subsidence beneath the ridge and a persistent SSWrly low level flow will yield near record warmth by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, which looks to continue through at least Saturday. Various ensembles suggest that the ridge may begin to flatten enough late in the holiday weekend to allow for a cold front to at least approach the area, which may result in the return of isolated convection to the region.

15

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR conditions at the start of the period to become MVFR late this evening and possibly IFR/LIFR across portions of east Texas near daybreak in the form of low ceilings and fog. Conditions to improve to MVFR around 22/18Z and VFR by the end of the forecast period at 23/00Z. Otherwise northeast winds to diminish overnight becoming southwest up to 10 knots on Monday. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1214 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Spotter activation will not be needed through Monday. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 66 55 74 64 / 0 0 10 10 MLU 63 53 73 62 / 0 10 20 10 DEQ 61 43 64 53 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 61 48 69 60 / 0 0 10 10 ELD 61 45 69 59 / 0 0 10 10 TYR 65 55 75 63 / 0 0 10 0 GGG 65 54 74 62 / 0 0 10 0 LFK 75 57 76 63 / 10 10 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.