textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Typical summertime heat and humidity will persist through the holiday weekend as we remain on the margins for heat advisory conditions.

- Upper ridge will remain anchored to our to NE over the OH and TN Valleys while weak easterlies continue to undercut the ridge to the south along the Gulf coast, supporting low-end rain chances through Independence Day.

- The pattern will likely become even more favorable for rainfall by Sunday into early next week as the ridge weakens and drifts out over the Atlantic.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

After a run of dry days to end the month of June, scattered storms brought some welcome relief from the heat across parts of the area on Wednesday. Even if you missed out on yesterday's rainfall, more isolated to widely scattered is expected over the next few days as diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will redevelop in this moisture rich environment along with increasing instability from the ongoing easterly wave influence. However, unlike what we saw on Wednesday with the best convective coverage across our SE CWA, we should see a bit more activity across parts of East TX today but do think the overall coverage will be much less than we had yesterday. Meanwhile, high temperatures will generally remain near status quo in the lower to mid 90s and with max heat indices in the lower triple digits if not briefly reaching or exceeding advisory criteria in a few of urban areas in North LA and SW AR.

The forecast will largely rinse and repeat on Friday and again on Saturday for the Independence Day holiday as the upper-level ridge gradually weakens and shifts east along the eastern seaboard. This should eventually open the door to higher rain chances as we move later into the weekend on Sunday and early next week. Medium-range guidance is still somewhat in flux on the extent of convective coverage beyond the 4th of July when comparing the EMCWF and GFS progs with the latter less bullish on rain chances. For now, NBM PoPs and temperatures continue to favor elevated rain chances for Sunday through Tuesday of next week along with slightly milder temperatures.

By Wednesday, guidance continues to trend hotter once again as the upper ridge appears poised to build back across the northern Gulf and expand westward. However, there are also some indications of a shortwave trough attempting to shift south into the region during this same timeframe so the forecast is certainly far from settled for this time next week. So continue to monitor the forecast for updates through this Independence Day weekend, and be prepared to shift activities indoors anytime weather threatens as dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds are always possible with summertime thunderstorms.

/19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, few MVFR cigs so far, but possible with initial heating for a few hours. Then VFR returning by late morning with more significant heating. SE winds will prevail for the day ahead 5-10KT and of course gusty around any afternoon TS. Coverage looks best over E TX, but we do have a slight chance areawide. We have VCTS for our TX sites and also for KSHV, but models coverage is sparse east of I-49. Similar pattern expected for the 4th, but an uptick in coverage is on tap for Sun. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Although spotter activation is not expected at this time, spotter reports may be needed with scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the next several days, including the possibility of some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 94 76 94 77 / 20 10 30 0 MLU 95 77 95 77 / 20 0 10 0 DEQ 92 74 92 74 / 20 10 20 0 TXK 95 76 95 76 / 20 10 20 0 ELD 94 75 94 75 / 20 0 10 0 TYR 94 76 94 78 / 30 10 20 0 GGG 94 76 94 77 / 30 10 10 0 LFK 93 75 94 76 / 40 10 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.