textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- Above normal temperatures and humid conditions will persist into early next week, with increasing chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

- A more unsettled weather pattern will bring of risk of moderate to heavy rainfall, along with the potential for severe weather beginning Tuesday and continuing through much of the rest of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The synoptic scale pattern this evening features a longwave trough over much of the Western US, with broad, low-amplitude ridging or arguably more quasi-zonal flow downstream over the eastern 2/3rds of the US. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic, with its ridge influence extending westward into the Gulf and across the Southern US. Farther upstream from this feature, a cyclone was located near the Oklahoma panhandle, with a dryline extending to its South across Western Oklahoma and through much of Western Texas.

Clear skies to begin the overnight hours tonight will quickly give way to a blanket of low cover from south to north after midnight and through Sunday morning. This, along with sustained southerly low-level flow will help keep minimum temperatures mild in the low 70s for most locations.

On Sunday, a strong shortwave trough will dive across the Pacific Northwest, helping to deepen the Western US longwave trough. This will subject the Southern Plains and the Four State Region to deeper SW flow aloft, helping to enhance the deeper layer moisture amidst continued strong southerly flow near the surface. This will result in dewpoints increasing into the low 70s, making for much more humid conditions, along with a much more unstable environment characterized by MLCAPE values generally around 1500-2000 J/kg. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is expected by the afternoon, although showers may materialize during the morning hours. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain sub-severe given the lack of appreciable deep layer shear, however, a few storms could be strong and carry a threat for gusty wind and small hail. Convective activity will then subside during the evening hours with loss of daytime heating. Sunday night will be humid and warm, with lows in the low to mid 70s (possibly upper 70s across southern zones!).

The weather pattern will then be trending much more unsettled heading into the work week, as the previously mentioned surface high continues to shift east and exposes the region to deep southerly surface flow on its western periphery amidst continued deep SW flow aloft. While the local area will lack a sufficient forcing mechanism for organized convection on Monday, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity can still be expected, especially during the afternoon hours. By Tuesday, a cold front will progress southward across the Southern Plains, likely reaching the Four State Region during the afternoon or evening hours. Severe weather could materialize along and ahead of this boundary as it moves southward through a very unstable environment. Confidence in the severe weather potential is currently low and this system will continue to be monitored over the coming days.

Thereafter, into the mid and latter half of the week, the front is expected to stall across the region. Perturbations moving within the SW flow aloft could serve to enhance lift along the stalled boundary and set up an opportunity for a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. A lot of uncertainty exists in regards to where and when the boundary will stall, but nevertheless, this could provide a decent chance for more beneficial rainfall across portions of the area.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Prevailing MVFR ceilings currently residing across all terminals with the exception of the ELD/MLU terminals. Likewise as expected, weak isentropic forcing has resulted in an area of showers extending from Deep East Texas northward into the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR. As we go through the morning, look for this activity to begin spreading into NW LA. Have prevailed VCSH through the morning hours across our NE TX terminals as well as the SHV and TXK terminals. Further east, with the aid of daytime heating and a little more in the way of upper forcing, will continue with afternoon VCTS at the ELD/MLU terminals as well as the TXK and SHV terminals. Look for the morning MVFR ceilings to lift and/or scatter out by late morning into the afternoon hours before returning to all terminals once again near or shortly after 06z. By mid to late morning with the aid of mixing, look for sustained SSE winds near 10-16kts with gusts upwards of 22-30kts, especially across our NE TX terminal locations.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through the end of the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 90 76 90 75 / 20 10 10 20 MLU 89 73 90 73 / 30 10 30 10 DEQ 86 72 87 71 / 30 30 40 30 TXK 90 75 91 73 / 20 10 20 30 ELD 88 72 88 72 / 30 10 10 30 TYR 89 76 89 74 / 20 20 10 30 GGG 90 76 89 74 / 20 20 10 20 LFK 90 77 89 75 / 20 10 10 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.