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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Hazardous heat will continue in earnest through Wednesday with temperature maximums likely in the upper 90s/lower 100s and mostly dry conditions.

- A pattern change by the end of the week into the weekend will yield a return to near-normal summertime heat (mid-90s) and higher chances of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Hazardous heat will persist for the Ark-La-Tex over the next several days as ridging continues to build back eastward across the southern Great Plains. A recent, more persistent trend has been for slightly stronger southeasterly winds across western zones to more efficiently mix the atmosphere underneath the ridge axis. This will preclude the most hazardous heat to east of I-49 for today, however, all areas will remain at risk of heat indices at or over 105 degrees. Heat hazard product issuance is likely to continue through this time period. Medium-range guidance suggests some light at the end of this tunnel as ridging finally starts to break down by the end of the week and the end of the month. Synoptic- scale flow aloft will gain more of a meridional orientation as a troughing pattern takes shape between Atlantic ridging further to our east and Intermountain ridging to our west. A return to normal summertime heat (mid-90s) is likely as a result by this time with a coinciding increase in the potential for productive rounds of convection to form in the afternoons with daytime heating. Long- range guidance suggests an increasing chance of a summertime frontal boundary that delivers even cooler air and higher rain chances by the weekend (potential for lower 90s). Future forecast updates will resolve that potential relief further. Until then, fairly light southerly winds will still not offer much relief. Dew points are expected to remain mostly in the upper 60s/low-to-mid 70s through the next several days. Heat indices will range above 105 degrees as a result, and hazardous heat will be impactful for all groups of people, not just heat-sensitive groups. Precautions and awareness are encouraged to continue now against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. This includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion in addition to heat stroke. /16/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions should prevail across all terminal locations through the next 24 hours. The only exception to this may be MVFR VSBYs near sunrise at LFK but elsewhere, should not have any VSBY concerns. Weak cu field will likely develop across our airspace by mid to late morning with that cu field dissipating by late afternoon into the evening hours.

13

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 98 79 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 99 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 99 74 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 100 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 98 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 99 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 98 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 97 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.


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