textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected today, increasing in coverage through the afternoon. Stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

- More showers and storms will be possible throughout the first half of the week. Flooding may become a concern for areas along and south of the I-20 corridor.

- A return to quieter and hotter conditions is expected by mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

As a surface boundary sags south tonight, areas of thunderstorms are beginning to fire up across our northernmost zones at this hour. These storms have not managed to strengthen significantly, but areas of heavy rainfall with limited movement have been leading to the potential for urban flooding. Based on projections which scoot this boundary slowly southwards towards daybreak, this convection is likewise expected to drift gradually down towards the I-20 corridor, eventually areawide into the daytime hours and continuing through the remainder of Sunday. Bear in mind, this does not mean a continuous areawide washout, but a composite of precip chances throughout the course of the day. High resolution short range guidance suggests several successive rounds of showers and storms firing up to our north ahead of the surface front and sliding south, potentially joined by sea breeze driven diurnal convection beginning in the early afternoon.

Widespread chances for further showers and storms continue overnight into Monday, persisting well into the new work week. This unsettled pattern is driven by the presence of a large postively-tiled trough over the southern Appalachians and Deep South. Recent guidance suggests this trough or its associated low may retain enough structure to influence further rainfall across the ArkLaTex through Wednesday, after which the trough will be absorbed into a transitional pattern aloft, leaving dry and increasingly warm conditions to continue through the end of the work week and into next weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s early in the week will rebound into the middle 90s by Thursday and beyond. Overnight lows in the 70s will continue throughout.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 657 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

For the 12/12Z TAF period, mostly VFR conditions still prevail to begin the period but increasing low stratus is expected to bring MVFR/IFR cigs to most terminals later this morning. In addition, some patchy fog is also possible with minor vsby restrictions at least a few sites just after daybreak before improving thereafter. Convection is expected to eventually increase later in the day today ahead of a rare summer cool front shifting south into our airspace. Therefore, have included VCSH/VCTS during the latter half of the TAF period and will likely need to prevail TSRA at some point in future TAF cycles as confidence in timing increases. Otherwise, look for cigs to gradually lifting back to VFR toward midday, albeit low VFR in most cases with increasing convection. Light and variable winds this morning will trend W/SW and then NW with the front later tonight with speeds generally averaging from 5-10 kts with higher gusts invof of convection.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon across most of the region. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 91 74 87 73 / 50 60 70 20 MLU 93 74 90 73 / 60 70 50 10 DEQ 90 71 89 71 / 60 40 30 10 TXK 92 73 91 73 / 60 50 40 10 ELD 90 71 89 71 / 60 60 40 10 TYR 92 74 89 73 / 50 60 70 30 GGG 92 74 88 72 / 50 60 70 20 LFK 92 74 86 72 / 40 40 70 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.