textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- An upper trough axis will remain over our region through mid- week, keeping rain chances and low-end severe risks over the area. Locally heavy rain could also result in flash flooding.

- The rain won't be a complete washout everywhere, allowing warm and humid conditions to remain, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.

- The trough axis is expected to lift NE of our region by late week with upper ridging beginning to exert greater influence across our region, which would mean a trend toward hotter and drier conditions once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Isolated convection is starting to form around the upper trough axis across the region. Some of this convection has been pretty strong, which has prompted a severe thunderstorm warning in Upshur County, TX. Additional convection is expected to form this afternoon into the early evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center Microburst Composite is very high today, which has prompted them to issue a Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon/evening. I wouldn't be surprised to see a watch in the next hour or two, with damaging winds being the main concern. In addition to the wind threat, these storms will initially be slow movers. Given the near 2" PWAT values over the region, locally heavy rain could yield flash flooding concerns over the area. Models have struggled with initializing this event, but there are some indications that some of this convection could continue into the late evening and possible overnight hours.

Rain chances with locally heavy rainfall, and at least a low-end severe weather risk, will remain in the forecast through mid- week, as upper troughing will remain across the region. It won't be a complete washout everyday, so the heat and humidity could be a concern for areas that receive little amounts of rain, as afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 90s. Uncertainty still remains beyond the middle of this week, but models continue to hint at the return of upper ridging returning over the region for the end of the current work week, which would give us a break from the rain. It would also bring warmer conditions back into the region as well. For next weekend, long-term progs are trying to bring rain chances back into the region in the form of afternoon seabreeze type convection. /20/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For the 06/18z TAF update...VFR conditions continue to prevail for all terminals early this afternoon. Clouds are SCT to FEW around 4-5k feet currently and should remain this way throughout the afternoon. While the radar remains quiet at this time, we will see isolated convection start to develop by this afternoon and into the evening hours. Kept mention of VCTS for all terminals for this afternoon, although it is looking more likely that KSHV, KMLU, KTXK and KELD could see some direct impacts this afternoon, although I am going to just handle that with AMD as storms start to fire up. Otherwise, winds should be light and variable today, except for some stronger gusts expected with any thunderstorms that do develop. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Spotter activation could be needed, as the threat of isolated to scattered severe storms could return through at least this evening, if not into the overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 95 74 91 74 / 30 40 40 20 MLU 94 74 92 74 / 40 40 40 30 DEQ 94 70 91 71 / 30 30 30 20 TXK 96 72 93 73 / 40 40 30 20 ELD 93 70 90 71 / 40 40 30 30 TYR 97 75 94 75 / 30 30 40 20 GGG 96 74 93 74 / 30 30 40 20 LFK 94 75 93 75 / 30 30 40 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.