textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

- The warming trend will continue throughout the remainder of the work week, with above normal temperatures expected through at least early next week.

- An extended period of dry conditions will persist throughout the remainder of the work week and much of the upcoming weekend, with a more notable increase in humidity returning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

The warming trend has begun with full insolation ongoing under the influence of sfc ridging in place coupled with very dry air noted on the early afternoon water vapor imagery over the Srn Plains and the Gulf States. Low AC cigs have been persistent since this morning from far Ern OK into Wrn and Cntrl AR, but have struggled to traverse SE into extreme SE OK and the Nrn sections of SW AR, as they have mostly mixed out/dissipated as they shifted farther SE. With the Gulf still cut off, RH's remain tolerable despite these warmer temps, with readings expected to top out near of a few degrees shy of the 90 degree mark over much of the region. The afternoon sfc analysis indicates the center of reinforcing sfc ridging noted over the Midwest, which is progged to shift S through the remainder of the afternoon into the MS Valley before eventually backdooring SW into the region late tonight. The bulk of the reinforcing drier air should eventually spill into SW AR/SE OK and possibly into portions of extreme Nrn LA by or shortly before daybreak Thursday, before ridging begins to shift farther E of the MS into the OH Valley by Thursday night. Thus, a SE bndry lyr flow will gradually return to the area Thursday, with the potential for additional elevated cu/low AC cig development late tonight through Thursday from Ern OK into SW AR and possibly NE LA. Any cigs that develop may hinder the extent of cooling late tonight as the drier air begins to backdoor its way in, with a continued moderating trend expected in min temps as well.

Upper ridging noted on the water vapor imagery just E of the Rockies into the TX Panhandle and Far W TX remains progged to shift E into the Srn Plains tonight, while gradually flattening as it progresses S into the Ozarks and Four State Region Thursday afternoon. Increasing subsidence and also the proximity of the residual bndry from the backdooring sfc ridge may also contribute to some compressional warming for temps to reach or exceed 90 degrees over much of E TX/Wrn LA along/S of I-20 Thursday, coupled with a slow and gradual return of bndry lyr RH's which may yield a weak cu field by afternoon. A deeper SSWrly low level return flow will begin a more notable return of low level moisture N into the region Thursday night, aided by a tightening pressure gradient and developing sfc low along the W TX dryline. Srly winds will keep the air mixed enough overnight, resulting in even milder temps and the potential for morning low stratus which may advect into portions of Deep E TX by/after daybreak Friday. Despite the remnants of the flattening upper ridge shifting E of the area by Friday, deepening warm/moisture advection will continue, aiding in max temps nearing/exceeding 90 degrees over much of the area. An increasing in elevated cigs are expected as well as the flow flattens out aloft, before eventually transitioning back to SW by late weekend.

The dry conditions which have been persistent throughout much of this week will eventually become wetter as perturbations aloft eject NE across the region, aiding in subtle forcing and increased moisture for isolated to scattered convection development beginning Sunday and persisting through the remainder of the long term period. More organized convection may develop late Monday through much of next week as a series of shortwave troughs eject through the Srn Plains and across our region. Given the various timing and coverage uncertainties, the NBM maintains mostly chance pops across the area, with likely pops Monday night/Tuesday in VC of the I-30 corridor. This pattern should set up more welcome rains that will offer some relief to the ongoing drought, while also helping to shave back afternoon temps a bit.

15

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail this TAF cycle, with potentially FEW clouds developing around 7-8kft along a southward moving cool front from mainly TXK to ELD. Cirrus to increase from the west on Thursday. Winds light out of the N this afternoon 6kts or less, becoming light and variable (<5kts) overnight and shifting E/SE Thursday morning around 7-10kts. No reductions to vsbys expected, however, can't rule out patchy fog early Thursday morning, especially for fog-prone terminals such as MLU and LFK. Confidence not high enough to mention this strongly in the 13/18z TAF issuance.

CK

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through this weekend. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 63 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 62 86 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 58 84 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 61 89 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 57 85 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 64 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 63 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 62 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.