textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

- Strong cold front continues advancing through the region this afternoon with gusty N/NW winds, maintaining an elevated fire danger in areas where little rainfall has occurred recently.

- A steady diet of cold fronts over the next week will generally keep temperatures below seasonal averages with our warmest day likely coming on Friday just ahead of the next front.

- The base of the deep longwave trough will swing overhead this weekend, lending credence to the potential for snow flurries so future forecasts may reflect this if confidence increases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

An increasingly active/progressive longwave pattern will bring a series of cold fronts through our region over the next week, the first of which is currently shifting through our SE zones on its way to the coast. Behind the front, gusty N/NW winds prevail this afternoon as gusts have already exceeded 30 mph in several areas. Given the relative dryness still in place, especially along and north of the I-30 corridor where little rainfall fell last week, elevated fire danger persists with these gusty winds and low RH values. Fortunately, wind speeds are expected to drop off later this evening through the overnight hours with low temperatures eventually bottoming out in the lower to mid 20s north to upper 20s and lower 30s south with skies clearing from NW to SE behind the departing front.

Cold air advection will maintain below average high temperatures on Thursday with a range from the upper 40s to lower and mid 50s. Chilly, albeit not as cold, overnight temperatures will follow on Thursday night as winds shift back southerly with lows largely ranging through the 30s along with a few lower 40s. Moving ahead to Friday, the longwave pattern will briefly shift more zonal just ahead of the next cold front diving southward through the Plains. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s over much of the region ahead of the front, making Friday our warmest on the next 7 days. Very limited moisture return prior to fropa will preclude any rain chances, thus reinforcing fire danger concerns once again with gusty W/NW winds and low RH values in wake of the cold front.

For this weekend, the longwave trough responsible for the repeated frontal passages will continue to dominate the eastern two-thirds of the country. A subtle but important feature with this longwave trough will come in the form of a shortwave rounding the base of the trough late Saturday into early Sunday. As a result, increased forcing associated with this shortwave may generate enough lift in an otherwise dry atmosphere to wring out some light snow flurries, mainly in our eastern zones. However, low forecast confidence has led to maintaining a dry forecast through the weekend for now with future updates potentially reflecting some changes pending better clarity and consistency in guidance.

Beyond the weekend, cooler and drier conditions will prevail into early next week with another cold front progged to arrive Monday. Similarly, this front will serve to reinforce the air mass already in place with temperatures dropping off slightly on Tuesday before a gradual recovery by mid-week when rain chances look to make a return as a Pacific shortwave advances from northern Mexico toward the western Gulf coast by Wednesday.

/19/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, SKC with much less gustiness, but sustained winds will keep NW in the 5-10KT range until predawn for a few sites. Then, 5KT or less and shifting from NW back to SW by mid afternoon as the air mass over TX drifts out across the Gulf. SKC expected for aside from some cirrus late in the cycle. Our next big fropa occurs this weekend with more showers on Saturday and high pressure settling right back into central TX by Sunday morning and SKC once again. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1231 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through this weekend.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 33 54 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 31 51 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 23 51 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 28 54 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 27 51 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 30 56 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 29 55 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 32 57 39 70 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.