textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1248 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Much above normal and near record high temperatures are expected this afternoon and again Friday across much of the region.

- The potential remains for scattered severe thunderstorms affecting Southeast Oklahoma, portions of Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas late Friday afternoon and especially during the evening and overnight hours.

- Periods of heavy but much needed rainfall is expected across much of the region this weekend, which should ease the severe and extreme drought conditions in place.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The late morning sfc analysis indicates a stationary frontal bndry that still lingers across Cntrl and SE OK (including Nrn McCurtain County) into portions of extreme Wrn AR. Areas of convection have been focused along and just N of the front this morning, with a weak perturbation aloft traversing the SW flow aloft into Wrn and Cntrl AR. This front should continue to lift N farther away from the region before eventually washing out, thus focusing isolated to scattered convection over Ern OK/Wrn AR. However, deeper theta-e advection continues across much of N and portions of ECntrl TX, which may result in isolated convection developing during the afternoon which may affect the Wrn portions of E TX into extreme SE OK, where low pops persist. Otherwise, the morning low stratus has begun to lift, allowing for strong insolation to commence which should result in another day of near record high temperatures especially over portions of E TX/N LA. Any weak convection that develops to our W should diminish during the evening with the loss of heating, with additional low cloud development expected late this evening and quickly spreading N into the area overnight.

The pressure gradient will begin to tighten Friday over the Srn Plains including the Wrn half of the region, in response to leeside sfc cyclogenesis that will deepen over SE CO/Wrn KS, before slowly easing E into Cntrl KS during the afternoon. This will occur ahead of a deepening upper trough now over the Intermountain W and Srn CA, that will shift E into the Rockies tonight, before lifting NE out in the Plains Friday. Deep lyr shear remains progged to increase through the day ahead of the ejecting trough, with the dry line expected to begin mixing E into Cntrl KS/OK and WCntrl TX by afternoon. Various ensemble members suggest that subtle forcing embedded in the SW flow aloft ahead of the upper trough axis will result in scattered convection development by mid to late afternoon over the Red River Valley of N TX into SE OK just WNW of the far NW zones, in a region of strong instability characterized with SBCapes of 1500-2000 J/kg and steep lapse rates near 7.5 C/km aloft. Thus, the severe potential will begin to ramp up by this time, but the ensemble clusters suggest this convection may only graze the NW zones late in the day, with other guidance delaying the arrival of the more potent convection until after dark. Other isolated strong to severe convection may develop closer to the dryline as well, although the primary severe mode should focus farther E along the warm SWrly conveyer belt from SE OK into Ern OK and Wrn/NW AR during the evening before spreading into more of NE TX/SW AR by late evening/overnight. Should also see perhaps even warmer daytime temps as well given the increasing pressure gradient, with near record temps expected once again over much of the region.

A cold front will eventually overtake the dryline late Friday night over Ern OK, before approaching SE OK/Wrn AR by daybreak Saturday. A 40-45kt SWrly LLJ should maintain the strong convection into the early morning hours Saturday ahead of the approaching front, with the severe threat expected to gradually diminish during the overnight hours with increasing bndry lyr stability. However, low level convergence will persist along the impinging front Saturday morning, with the threat transitioning to heavy rain from NE TX into SW AR/portions of extreme Nrn LA. The latest NBM has tapered back max temps Saturday given the expanding convection, but enough instability may develop through limited insolation during the afternoon that may compensate for reduced shear for at least an isolated severe threat over portions of Lower E TX/N LA, before diminishing late in the day. The daytime convection Saturday may also help to reinforce the weak cold front S through the area as well, although uncertainties persist as to whether this will occur continue. Evenso, frontal convergence should gradually weaken by Saturday night, but the presence of the lingering bndry with additional perturbations riding atop the front will yield additional -SHRA and embedded TSRA development Sunday and Monday. QPF amounts will loom to range from 2-4 inches, with isolated higher amounts across the area, through the weekend.

The front may begin to lift back N across the area Monday thus returning warmer and more humid conditions to the region especially by Tuesday, as we await a closed low that will branch off Friday's upper trough into the Desert SW Friday night, which will settle in VC of Baja this weekend before slowly ejecting E across Nrn Old MX into the TX Big Bend region late Tuesday. It remains to be seen whether this low will open up completely should it become absorbed into the next developing Nrn stream trough, or remains closed off as it shifts through TX into our region. In any case, the potential for severe convection with heavy rainfall may increase again prior to its arrival, although timing/extent of any of these threats will be better determined pending the upcoming weekend convection and its influence/placement of the front.

15

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

SCT/BKN coverage and a mix of VFR/MVFR across the airspace this morning as surface terminal winds are breezy from the south and southwest around 10 kts. Gusts have peaked between 20-25 kts across the East Texas airspace and closer to DFW. Cloud coverage will turn more SCT late this afternoon, ahead of a return of MVFR low BKN/OVC CIGs at or below 2kft overnight. Winds will continue to be on breezy side again tomorrow, with gusts between 20-25 kts. VCSH towards the end of the period is expected with increasing convective coverage after 06/18z.

KNAPP

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1248 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but may be needed late Friday afternoon or evening across Southeast Oklahoma, extreme Northeast Texas, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 84 66 86 68 / 10 0 20 70 MLU 84 66 87 68 / 0 0 10 40 DEQ 79 61 80 60 / 30 20 50 90 TXK 84 67 85 67 / 10 10 30 90 ELD 84 64 84 65 / 10 0 20 70 TYR 84 68 84 67 / 10 10 30 80 GGG 85 67 85 67 / 10 0 30 80 LFK 83 67 85 67 / 0 0 20 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.