textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- A weak frontal boundary will move across the region late this afternoon, which may support isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm.

- Low end rain chances will continue across the south and eastern third into Friday morning, with PoPs expanding in coverage across the eastern half of the region late Friday into Saturday morning.

- Behind the rain chances, high pressure and dry conditions will hang around through the back half of the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A mix of sun and clouds across the region this afternoon as we watch the arrival of a weak frontal boundary, which may support a few stray showers through peak heating. Elected to keep rain chances low for the rest of the afternoon as hi-res, while not overly bullish, has continued to advertise some PoPs along and south of the advancing surface front. Guidance continues to suggest additional PoPs across the southeastern third late in the day as the boundary interacts with a more supportive moisture profile south of I-20. While PoPs are in the forecast, and this also goes for Friday and Saturday AM, the amounts will be on the lower side with 3 day QPF accumulations between 0.10-0.25". While the 3 day QPF does suggest a very isolated bullseye for amounts between 0.25-0.5", this would likely come from a very generous downpour or brief thunderstorm late Friday, into Saturday morning as the aforementioned boundary this afternoon hangs up near Alexandria tonight and retreats back north in the form of a warm front via a weak surface low embedded within persistent forcing aloft tomorrow. What does materialize Friday and Saturday in the form of rain chances will exit the region Saturday afternoon, with high pressure filling in for Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Four State Region in General Thunder for tomorrow as a stray thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out.

Cooler temperatures will be the result as highs Sunday and Monday will be a mix of 50's and low 60's. At the same time, the influence of the drier airmass will sink RH percentages into the upper teens and low 20's. Breezy northerlies Sunday combined with low RH percentages and dry soils will support a fire weather concern locally, and should be taken into consideration if any burning is planned. If trends continue to suggest that fire weather concerns will persist, additional fire weather products may follow in future forecast packages. Though RH percentages will remain low into Monday, the breezy northerlies will weaken ahead of a return to southerlies by Tuesday morning. This swing in the winds will allow for a quick rebound in temperature department as highs return to the mid and upper 60's Tuesday afternoon, with 70's and even some low 80's by the middle of the week.

RK

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

With the exception of tempo HZ conditions across select terminals today, VFR conditions to prevail areawide through the period. A cold front will move across the region early this evening with southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts this afternoon, diminishing to around 5 to 10 knots tonight and becoming northwest. Otherwise, winds to become northeast and increase to around 10 knots on Friday. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through the end of this week.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 53 73 58 71 / 0 20 20 20 MLU 55 73 57 70 / 20 20 40 30 DEQ 39 66 44 63 / 0 10 20 10 TXK 47 71 52 66 / 0 20 20 20 ELD 47 69 48 63 / 0 20 30 20 TYR 50 68 60 71 / 0 10 10 10 GGG 50 70 58 71 / 0 20 10 20 LFK 58 76 62 77 / 0 30 10 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.