textproduct: Shreveport

UPDATE

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Although we still have some convection out there, the main severe weather threat has diminished. Currently, the sfc cold front has move to along a line from Tyler Texas, to near Benton Louisiana, to just west of El Dorado Arkansas. Temperatures behind the front has dropped into the 60s, with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s. However, the 850 mb front has settled near the I-30 corridor. This has been the location of new shower and thunderstorm development over the past couple of hours. Can't rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm over the next few hours, but the tornadic threat should be near zero. As we move through the overnight period, the sfc front is expected to retreat back northward. This could result in the redevelopment of strong to severe thunderstorms near the I-30 corridor and northward near daybreak. Expect a range in overnight lows tonight. South of the front, locations will see humid conditions and lows in the 70s. North of the boundary, overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s to low to mid 60s. /20/

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Convection is already ongoing, albeit still sub-severe for now, along and north of I-30 while areas farther south have limited to just a few spotty showers. Looking at our the initial output from our special 20Z sounding, capping in still evident invof 700 mb so that explains the lack of more robust convection along and south of I-20. The expectation of further erosion of this cap remains, but any further delay could limit the window of severe convection across SE OK and NE TX as the sfc cold front nears our westernmost zones. Farther north and east, especially along and north of I-20, the window of opportunity extends a bit longer into this evening as additional cooling aloft should help to chip away at what small cap remains in place.

For this reason, the latest update to the Day 1 convective outlook remains largely unchanged with the Moderate Risk area highlighted across the NE quarter of our CWA in parts of far Northern LA and much of SW AR. The more expansive Enhanced Risk area is still very much in play as well across much of East TX and North LA along the I-20 corridor while the risk drops farther south of the corridor. The current temperature here in Shreveport sits at 88F, and that has exceeded expectations. With that said, we expect more robust convective initiation over the next few hours across at least the northern half of the region with storms quickly maturing and going severe in short order when and where they do develop. Once again, all modes are expected throughout this event with a few stronger, high-end tornadoes very much in the equation along with damaging wind gusts and large hail up to 2+" in diameter, especially with any discrete supercells. The severe threat should gradually begin to wind down by late evening into the overnight hours as we lose heating and the cold front loses any additional forward momentum and eventually becomes stationary near or just north of I-30.

Moving ahead to Thursday, the front will generally remain parked invof of I-30 with additional shortwave energy swinging NE across TX into the Middle Red River Valley over top the stalled boundary. This will present a renewed potential for severe weather across much of the region, especially along and near the boundary invof of the I-30 corridor. In addition, the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will become more of a concern. Based on this expectation, did expand the existing Flood Watch another tier of counties south in NE TX to include the remainder of the I-30 corridor. This Flood Watch takes effect at 7PM tonight and runs through Saturday night to account for this prolonged period of severe weather and heavy rainfall through the end of this week and into the first half of the weekend. More details on that follow in the long-term discussion below.

/19/

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

By Friday, additional waves of upper-level energy will continue to track NE in the persistent SW flow regime across the South Central U.S. Additionally, the stalled boundary will remain largely unmoved across the NW portions of the CWA. As a result, the continuation of severe weather and heavy rainfall will persist as the expansive warm sector environment continues to encompass much of the region. Instability and shear profiles will continue to support all modes of severe weather through Saturday and possibly Saturday night when the primary upper-level trough responsible for this rather extended unsettled period finally ejects eastward into the Lower and Mid-MS Valley.

This significant change in the upper-level pattern will usher in a much cooler air mass across the region for Sunday into early next week. As a result, look for below normal temperatures during this timeframe from late weekend through early next week. Fortunately, dry weather will also return and allow for a much needed break from heavy rainfall and severe weather fatigue. In the meantime, prepare for an active weather period through at least the first half of the upcoming weekend with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

/19/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR for most with MVFR at KLFK and KGGG. Our TX sites will see IFR/MVFR by 09Z and others by 12Z with VCSH. We will see cigs lift with heating as winds gust again from the S/SE8-14KTG22-28KT as the upper trough and approaching cold front drum up another round of mid to late day convection. Coverage today looks isolated at LA sites and scattered again for our TX/AR terminals. We are still looking at a third and fourth attempt with convection before our fropa late Sat aftn/eve. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening for the potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

/15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 73 87 72 77 / 50 50 50 100 MLU 73 89 74 84 / 20 40 20 90 DEQ 61 80 61 70 / 90 100 90 100 TXK 69 85 69 75 / 90 90 80 100 ELD 67 86 69 78 / 60 70 50 100 TYR 71 84 65 73 / 70 80 80 100 GGG 70 86 68 75 / 60 60 70 100 LFK 72 88 71 79 / 20 40 40 90

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...None. OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112.