textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions will maintain elevated fire danger concerns today with increasing SE winds and low afternoon RH values.

- A pattern change will bring a low-end risk of heavy rain and severe storms across our far W/NW zones by Thursday, with rain chances increasing areawide through the end of this week.

- Cooler temperatures are expected to follow by this weekend with a cold front expected to shift south and usher in the coolest air so far this fall season by the first full week of October.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

One more day to go with widespread lower to mid 90s is expected today as upper ridging departs to the east, signaling a coming pattern shift for late week into the upcoming weekend with rain chances increasing areawide. In the meantime, today's weather concern centers on the ongoing fire danger as hot temperatures will contribute to low afternoon RH in the 30-45% range. Add to that the increasing SE winds today, and you have the recipe for rapid fire starts and wildfire growth from any flames or sparks due to critically dry fuels and parched vegetation. Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for today across our entire region.

Moving into Wednesday night and Thursday, the much advertised pattern shift referenced above will begin to manifest as tropical Pacific moisture from the remnants of Polo continue to lift NE across the eastern half of Texas. The surging moisture plume will quickly be absorbed by an eastward advancing upper trough shifting from the Desert SW into the Southern Rockies, gradually spreading farther east across the Middle Red River Valley into our region from Wednesday night throughout the day on Thursday. The axis of heaviest rainfall will likely set up invof of the I-35 corridor to our west but may extend as far east as our northwesternmost zones in NE TX and SE OK where a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall has been highlighted for Thursday and Thursday night, before expanding slightly farther east on Friday. In addition, the threat of some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts generally occupies the same areas in NE TX and SE OK on Thursday into Thursday night.

As we move through Friday and into the weekend, remnant moisture will then interact with a cold front advancing southward into the region. This front will provide additional forcing for increasing convection across the entire region on Friday into Saturday before the front eventually clears the region late in the weekend. Then a stronger reinforcing cold front will arrive late Sunday night into Monday to usher any lingering moisture and associated convection southward along the coast early in the new work week by Monday into Tuesday.

Forecast thinking hasn't really deviated in terms of rainfall totals as they still appear to range widely from west to east with as much as 1-3 inches across parts of NE TX and SE OK while areas farther east in SW AR and North LA are likely to see around an inch or less. Isolated higher amounts are certainly possible within any of these areas, and amounts are still somewhat in flux given forecast uncertainties on the strength and location of the ridge axis. However, the latest guidance does suggest less of an influence from the ridge as it shifts east along the SE Atlantic seaboard this weekend. Therefore, the eastern extent of the heavy rain axis may shift deeper into NE TX and SE OK before leaving a sharp gradient of much lighter amounts farther east. Therefore, a Flood Watch may be considered for these areas with future updates. What is more certain is that cooler air will gradually infiltrate the region from the north through the weekend and into early next week, possibly leading to the coolest air so far this fall season for the first full week of October.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

For the 30/18z TAF update...VFR conditions currently prevail across the region and will continue throughout the remainder of the day. By tonight, some MVFR CIGs will develop, mainly for our east Texas terminals, and KSHV. We could also see some drops in visibility for KLFK and KTYR. Although the drops in visibility for KTYR will be because of the chance of rain that will increase around 11/15z where I have introduced -RA. I don't think the rain will push any further east, so I have left any mention out for the remainder of the terminals for tomorrow. That being said, we are moving into a more active period, so there is some likelihood that it will be introduced at some additional terminals going forward. Winds will be gust at times today, we have already seen some locations gusting to around 20 kts, and this could increase to around 25 kts throughout the day. More gusty conditions will be possible on Thursday across the region as well. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 74 93 73 88 / 0 20 40 50 MLU 71 95 72 93 / 0 20 10 50 DEQ 71 89 66 82 / 10 70 80 80 TXK 73 91 69 84 / 0 40 70 80 ELD 70 94 70 89 / 0 20 30 60 TYR 74 91 71 83 / 10 60 80 80 GGG 73 93 70 86 / 0 50 60 70 LFK 72 91 71 88 / 0 50 50 70

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.