textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

- One more unseasonably warm day is expected to round out this weekend, but a major shift in the longwave pattern will usher in significant changes beginning late today through tonight.

- The strongest cold front so far this winter season will sweep across the region this evening and overnight, increasing rain chances areawide and prompting a Wind Advisory for our NW CWA. - Temperatures will rapidly plummet behind the cold front with sub-freezing overnight lows both Monday and Tuesday night and highs in the 40s to lower 50s before rebounding by mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

After an extended stretch of very warm temperatures for this late in December, a major shift in the upper-level pattern will finally yield temperatures more representative for this time of year after today. In the meantime, increasing southerly flow this morning has already begun to send low clouds surging northward into our region with that trend expected to continue through daybreak. Similar to Saturday, expect these low clouds to linger throughout the morning and early afternoon before some breaks become possible late in the day as SW winds really ramp up ahead of a strong cold front racing SE into the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, scattered showers should begin to develop across our NW zones during the day with isolated thunderstorms also possible as the cold front progresses through the region this evening and overnight. In addition, strong NW winds will follow fropa, especially across our NW zones where a Wind Advisory has been issued from 6 PM this evening through 6 AM Monday morning when wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible.

By daybreak on Monday, convection should exiting our extreme SE zones along with the cold front as it continues to surge toward the coast. Winds will remain gusty throughout the day on Monday as well, propelling the strong surge of cold air advection with temperatures dropping off some 30-40 degrees in wake of the front. Moving into Monday night and Tuesday, high pressure will gradually build in behind the departing cold front which will allow for wind speeds to drop off sharply. As a result, overnight lows on Monday night into Tuesday morning are expected drop below freezing across the entire region. Only a modest recovery in temperatures will follow on Tuesday with highs ranging through the 40s to around 50 degrees. Another night of sub-freezing temperatures is expected on Tuesday night before a moderating closer to seasonal averages on Wednesday as southerly flow returns through the end of the week.

As a result, the warming trend will continue through Friday with mostly dry conditions expected to prevail as the upper-level flow pattern gradually trends more zonal. Some discrepancies continue to prevent better clarity on a possible late week/early weekend cold front, which could provide the next chance of rain in the new year. For now, have continued the trend toward a warmer and drier forecast until higher confidence is achieved with respect to the potential of another frontal passage near the end of this 7-day forecast period.

/19/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Extensive MVFR cigs have developed late this evening over SE TX/Cntrl and SW LA, and will quickly shift NNE across the region to start the 06Z TAF period. While IFR cigs can't be ruled out over portions of Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, low MVFR cigs are primarily expected before engulfing much of the region by 09Z. These cigs will persist through at least late morning before gradually lifting, with VFR cigs returning by midday/early afternoon (but possibly lingering at least through mid-afternoon at TXK). This will occur ahead of a strong cold front that will quickly sweep SE into extreme NE TX/SW AR by mid to late afternoon, and through the remainder of the area during the evening. A narrow band of -SHRA may develop along the front, and thus have maintained VCSH for the TYR/GGG/TXK terminals prior to 00Z Monday, and added VCSH elsewhere during the evening with the fropa. Any thunder (if any) should remain quite isolated, although some post-frontal -SHRA may linger for a couple hours behind the front as it traverses Lower E TX/N LA/SCntrl AR. Cigs should quickly lift with the fropa, with VFR conditions expected with AC cigs diminishing from NW to SE during the evening as well. S winds 6-12kts overnight will become SW and increase to 11-16kts with gusts to 25kts after 15Z.

/15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1223 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through the remainder of the weekend.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 81 39 50 30 / 10 50 0 0 MLU 79 39 49 28 / 0 60 0 0 DEQ 76 29 43 22 / 30 10 0 0 TXK 78 34 46 26 / 20 30 0 0 ELD 77 33 46 24 / 10 50 0 0 TYR 78 36 47 29 / 20 30 0 0 GGG 79 36 48 28 / 20 40 0 0 LFK 80 39 51 31 / 0 50 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...None. OK...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149-150.