textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Ongoing rains will linger and redevelop across northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma and south Arkansas through most of the daytime on Friday.

- An additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall (and flooding potential) can't be ruled out across portions of east Texas into south Arkansas/southeast Oklahoma.

- Temperatures will remain near/below-normal as a result of wet weather into early next week (maximums of mid-to-upper 80s on average).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The troughing responsible for our currently wet weather pattern continues to fill and weaken as anticipated while it stretches across the Southern Great Plains. Attendant and coincident to this troughing is a frontal boundary that will maintain the bulk of multi-day rain chances across the Four State Region. Short-range guidance continues to suggest the next rounds of convection maximizing in the next 12-24 hours from extra lift and moisture collecting along the approaching frontal boundary. While daytime heating will play a role in building instability, background vorticity advection will maintain ample convective potential for multiple rounds of precipitation. With the bulk of expected precipitation falling in our western and northern zones, isentropic upglide is expected to be the main driver of precipitation along and behind the slow-moving frontal boundary as it shifts southward through the day on Saturday. Post-frontal clearing is expected to begin its impacts later on into Monday with 24-hour probabilities of precipitation totals over 0.5 inch increasing to over 40% south of I-49 on Sunday.

Long-range guidance suggests a slight pause or break of the wet weather pattern by the middle of next week as post-frontal surface ridging and quasi-zonal flow aloft sets back in across the Mid- South. It remains to be resolved if Pacific tropical moisture is injected back into this flow later next week to restore rain chances, as some model guidance members may suggest. The combined activity over the next 72-hours will maintain near-normal temperatures as a result (maximums/minimums of mid-to-upper 80s/lower 60s). By the middle of next week, post-frontal temperature minimums may reach the mid-50s north of I-20 for a sample of Fall weather. /16/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For the 02/06Z TAFs, unsettled conditions will continue for east Texas airspace and nearby terminals. Lower VFR cloud decks have deteriorated to MVFR at KTYR and KGGG, with all area sites looking to crater at MVFR or IFR during the mid-morning hours. Due to the spotty nature of these showers, prevailing VCSH at impacted terminals. Periodic VSBY reductions due to heavy rainfall are possible. Breaks in the rain look to develop by 03/00Z south and east, ahead of new rounds of rain north and west. Winds will become increasingly variable throughout, increasing from light and nearly calm overnight to maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts during the day.

/26/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Spotter activation could be needed through Friday morning. Although some damaging winds can't be ruled out, flash flooding will by the primary threat, especially in and near the Flood Watch. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 88 71 83 67 / 40 20 50 50 MLU 93 71 88 68 / 20 20 40 60 DEQ 80 62 76 60 / 80 30 40 30 TXK 81 66 76 62 / 80 20 40 40 ELD 88 66 82 62 / 50 20 40 50 TYR 81 69 79 66 / 80 40 60 50 GGG 85 68 82 64 / 60 30 50 60 LFK 88 71 85 68 / 40 20 60 60

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136.