textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

- Strong cold front continues advancing through the region this afternoon with gusty N/NW winds, maintaining an elevated fire danger in areas where little rainfall has occurred recently.

- A steady diet of cold fronts over the next week will generally keep temperatures below seasonal averages with our warmest day likely coming on Friday just ahead of the next front.

- The base of the deep longwave trough will swing overhead this weekend, lending credence to the potential for snow flurries so future forecasts may reflect this if confidence increases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

An increasingly active/progressive longwave pattern will bring a series of cold fronts through our region over the next week, the first of which is currently shifting through our SE zones on its way to the coast. Behind the front, gusty N/NW winds prevail this afternoon as gusts have already exceeded 30 mph in several areas. Given the relative dryness still in place, especially along and north of the I-30 corridor where little rainfall fell last week, elevated fire danger persists with these gusty winds and low RH values. Fortunately, wind speeds are expected to drop off later this evening through the overnight hours with low temperatures eventually bottoming out in the lower to mid 20s north to upper 20s and lower 30s south with skies clearing from NW to SE behind the departing front.

Cold air advection will maintain below average high temperatures on Thursday with a range from the upper 40s to lower and mid 50s. Chilly, albeit not as cold, overnight temperatures will follow on Thursday night as winds shift back southerly with lows largely ranging through the 30s along with a few lower 40s. Moving ahead to Friday, the longwave pattern will briefly shift more zonal just ahead of the next cold front diving southward through the Plains. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s over much of the region ahead of the front, making Friday our warmest on the next 7 days. Very limited moisture return prior to fropa will preclude any rain chances, thus reinforcing fire danger concerns once again with gusty W/NW winds and low RH values in wake of the cold front.

For this weekend, the longwave trough responsible for the repeated frontal passages will continue to dominate the eastern two-thirds of the country. A subtle but important feature with this longwave trough will come in the form of a shortwave rounding the base of the trough late Saturday into early Sunday. As a result, increased forcing associated with this shortwave may generate enough lift in an otherwise dry atmosphere to wring out some light snow flurries, mainly in our eastern zones. However, low forecast confidence has led to maintaining a dry forecast through the weekend for now with future updates potentially reflecting some changes pending better clarity and consistency in guidance.

Beyond the weekend, cooler and drier conditions will prevail into early next week with another cold front progged to arrive Monday. Similarly, this front will serve to reinforce the air mass already in place with temperatures dropping off slightly on Tuesday before a gradual recovery by mid-week when rain chances look to make a return as a Pacific shortwave advances from northern Mexico toward the western Gulf coast by Wednesday.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

The main story of this period will be the post-frontal winds as a cold front works through the eastern part of the region today. Winds will be generally out of the northwest at 10-16 kts, with occasional gusts up to 30 kts possible for East Texas sites this afternoon. Winds should subside after sunset tonight. High level clouds are moving eastward out of the region right now with some lower level clouds moving in from the north. Greatest confidence in these cigs will be for our LA and AR sites but it's not impossible for these clouds to impact other areas as well. These cigs should lift fairly soon after 15/00z and leave SKC for all.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1231 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through this weekend.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 32 53 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 30 50 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 22 50 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 28 53 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 26 49 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 30 55 43 62 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 29 54 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 32 55 40 67 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.