textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- The potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through this evening, especially along and north of I-30 with additional redevelopment elsewhere possible overnight and early to midday Wednesday across much of the region.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will return Wednesday through at least the first half of the weekend, with drier conditions returning Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Scattered convection has quickly deepened and across much of Lower E TX, as what convection originated earlier this morning along a weak NW to SE H925-850 convergence zone along the base of of the weak upper trough extending from the Mid-South SW into the TX Hill Country, has built SW along an extensive outflow bndry into the hotter, more unstable air characteristic of MLCapes of 2000-3000 J/kg. Elsewhere, CIN is still holding firm across portions of extreme NE TX into much of N LA, where earlier morning convection has cooled and stabilized the air mass. None of the morning CAMs or 12Z deterministic progs have initialized well with the ongoing convection, although the greatest confidence for afternoon convection remains over portions of ECntrl and Deep E TX this afternoon, where weak convergence along the SW propagating outflow bndry within the aforementioned unstable air mass should result in renewed development. Elsewhere, mainly isolated afternoon convection is expected near this weak trough axis, once the CIN is able to weaken with added diurnal heating, and should diminish this evening once the air mass stabilizes.

While the center of the weak upper low is progged to drift NE through the Mid-South tonight into the OH valley Wednesday, the attendant troughiness aloft should again focus isolated to scattered convection over the region, although the extent of development remains uncertain especially given the poor initialization of the various models. Did expand upon the slight chance/chance pops areawide Wednesday, although the greatest coverage may trend farther S and E as the key trough aloft begins to drift ESE into SE TX/Cntrl and Ern LA. This trough should exit the region to the E into the Lower MS Valley Thursday, thus returning hotter (above normal) heat and drier conditions to the region. This trend should continue into Friday, although weak ridging aloft is progged to expand W along the Gulf coast which could induce more in the way of weak afternoon seabreeze convection, as well as additional isolated to widely scattered convection farther N along the hot and unstable air mass that will should be characteristic along the Wrn periphery of the ridge.

Amplifying upper ridging over the Rockies remains progged to expand E into the Plains and Midwest late this weekend into the start of the new work week, thus expanding the intense heat dome over these areas. However, the center of this ridging should remain far enough N of our region, but an extended E to W weakness aloft should sink S along the base of the ridge across the region Sunday through midweek, providing the focus for Erly wave convection that will be most active during the afternoon/evening during peak heating. The increase in cloud cover/resulting convection should result in afternoon temps slightly tapering back closer to the daily norms, with the convection providing some relief to the afternoon heat.

15

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, break this evening, but focus perhaps later for KTXK with TS N of I-30 sinking S, but sundown may halt much. Otherwise, models look to get the day running with predawn to mid morning TS development along I-20. So we have VCTS KGGG to KMLU by 15Z. Meanwhile, KTYR may have a bout of heavy FG 09-13Z. S/SW winds will prevail at 0-4KT and then 5-10KT daylight with gusts to 40KT near heavy downpours. Upper trough will soon lift away and convection along with mid to late day on Tuesday. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon across portions of Lower East Texas south of I-20. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 72 93 77 95 / 30 30 10 0 MLU 73 94 76 96 / 30 40 10 10 DEQ 70 93 73 95 / 10 20 10 0 TXK 73 95 76 98 / 20 20 10 0 ELD 71 92 74 94 / 20 30 10 10 TYR 74 96 78 97 / 30 20 10 0 GGG 74 95 77 96 / 30 30 10 0 LFK 75 95 76 96 / 40 20 20 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.