textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Dry weather will continue, with morning lows in the 50s and 60s, and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Some sites south and east are expected to hit the lower 90s by mid to late this week.

- The southern and eastern ArkLaTex may see an increasing chance of showers this weekend as a potential tropical disturbance approaches the Louisiana coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

This week will find the ArkLaTex without much in the way of upper level steering mechanisms, with northwest flow away north of the Ozarks, ridging over the Desert Southwest, and a few attempted troughs or lows which ultimately don't end up amounting to much.

For the next several days, dry conditions will prevail areawide, and in the near term, near normal temperatures will remain, with lows in the lower to middle 60s south and even upper 50s north at daybreak Tuesday. The dry airmass remaining with us and mostly clear skies with abundant sunshine will do nothing to restrict heating, however, and afternoon highs will leap back into the middle to upper 80s. Wednesday looks to be a near carbon copy of tomorrow, and Thursday and Friday would be following suit, aside from a warming trend beginning to push highs back into the upper 80s to lower 90s and some increasing cloud coverage in the afternoons. Morning lows will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout.

Throughout this quiet week in the ArkLaTex, all eyes will be on an area of low pressure which is expected to develop over the southwestern Gulf within the next day or so. Signals are indicating increasing chances that this low will organize into a tropical depression later this week, with steering in the form of synoptic scale flow around a Bermuda High directing it north and east towards the U.S. Gulf Coast. It is still too early to speculate with confidence on the potential intensity of this system as it approaches the coast, but preparedness is always advisable. If the system's sustained winds reach Tropical Storm strength (39+ mph) it will be given the name "Isaias." As for its track, the 12Z GFS favors landfall somewhere along the LA/MS/AL coast. Please take these early projections with a grain of salt, and be attentive to forthcoming forecast updates.

Based on the consensus suggesting the system will keep largely to our east, impacts to the ArkLaTex look to be fairly limited. Again, bear in mind that this could change with subtle deviations in system track, etc. As for right now, slight rain chances return to our southeastern zones Saturday, continuing through the night into Sunday. Aside from some brief incursions into Deep East Texas, PoPs keep generally east of the I-49 corridor. Otherwise, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will continue, with lows trending back into the 60s areawide.

/26/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Still dealing with some 5-6kft and 13-16kft moisture across our extreme southern, southeastern and eastern airspace attm, remnant moisture where the drier air noted to the north and west has not penetrated as of yet. Prog time/height cross sectional analysis suggests that this moisture, at least the lower level moisture may hang around through the day and actually increase in coverage overnight and slightly further to the west, perhaps encompassing the SHV terminal. Regardless, this moisture and any cloud cover through the TAF period will remain above 3kft and therefore, VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Look for NE winds near 10kts or less today before diminishing overnight.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 90 65 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 88 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 87 58 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 89 60 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 85 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 86 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 88 66 89 66 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.