textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Warmer, more humid and mostly dry conditions will prevail through tomorrow, from lows in the 50s and 60s to highs in the lower 80s.

- A cold front will bring showers and storms from the northwest before dawn Tuesday, spreading south through the day. Damaging wind gusts and flash flooding will be possible.

- Behind the front, more seasonable temperatures will prevail through the remainder of the week and into next weekend, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Upper level ridging is building over the Four State Region from west to east, helping to put the sun in this Sunday. As skies continue to clear, temperatures will soar back into the lower 80s this afternoon. A lingering moisture axis continues to fire up some remnant showers across central to northeast Louisiana, with guidance suggesting this band may struggle to fully depart through the day today. Elsewhere, dry and partly cloudy conditions will prevail. With low to mid level moisture returns, clouds will fill in overnight while temperatures drop into the middle to upper 50s north and lower 60s south.

Today's ridge axis will be swept cleanly out of the region tomorrow by the approach of the advertised deepening longwave trough amplifying southwards over the Rockies and ejecting east over the Front Range into the Plains by tomorrow evening. Southwest flow aloft and southerly surface flow will keep temperatures warm despite mostly cloudy skies, with another afternoon of upper 70s to lower 80s areawide. As with today, a few spotty showers across our southeasternmost zones cannot be ruled out, with increasingly humid but dry conditions elsewhere.

The timing of Monday into Tuesday's showers and storms follows the slower progression hinted at in recent days, with the earliest lower chances of rain arriving Monday evening in our far northwest. PoPs indicate high confidence in the main line pushing into the ArkLaTex from the northwest between midnight and daybreak Tuesday, spreading through the middle of the region after dawn and our southeastern zones into the afternoon and early evening, with rainfall looking to come to an end overnight into Wednesday morning. With Tuesday's showers and storms, a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) will be present, with the primary threat being in the form of damaging wind gusts. Additionally, periods of heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding will be possible, impacting urban areas, small streams and areas of poor drainage.

Behind the cold front responsible for Tuesday's storms, drier and noticeably cooler conditions will prevail for the remainder of the week, as highs climb only into the 70s, while lows fall into the 40s. A weaker secondary trough passing just to our north Thursday is looking like less of a rainmaker in recent guidance, but will help to reinforce our more seasonable or slightly below- average temperatures through to the end of this extended forecast period.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

For the 02/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions are in place to begin the period with a fair amount of cumulus and cirrus across our airspace. Given the moisture profile, expect another round of MVFR/IFR cigs later in the overnight through the early morning hours on Monday. Some intermittent LIFR cigs can't be ruled out along with patchy fog once again, but confidence is lower on the fog development given that clouds continue to increase and light E/SE winds should persist. Otherwise, gradual improvement in cigs will lead to returning VFR conditions by late morning into midday on Monday with SE winds increasing between 8-14 kts along with higher gusts possible across our western terminals in East Texas as well as KSHV/KTXK during the afternoon hours.

/19/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

/15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 63 81 67 76 / 10 10 50 100 MLU 65 81 68 81 / 20 20 10 100 DEQ 57 81 61 76 / 0 20 90 80 TXK 61 80 65 75 / 0 20 70 90 ELD 61 81 64 77 / 20 10 50 100 TYR 64 83 66 75 / 0 10 70 80 GGG 61 82 64 76 / 0 10 60 90 LFK 63 83 67 78 / 0 10 40 100

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.