textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis through the first half of next week.

- As soils become saturated from repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms, the risk of flash flooding will become a concern.

- Also, an isolated strong the severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

The passage of previous convection along a prominent outflow boundary, followed by a weak cool front, left stable and more quieter conditions across the region yesterday. However, we saw some precipitation across our Central Louisiana zones ahead of the aforementioned front, as it has stalled across Deep East Texas northeastward into Northeast Louisiana and Western Mississippi. That rain has finally dissipated, but short-term progs are hinting at some additional isolated precipitation developing across our zones north of Interstate 20 overnight in response to a developing sfc low along the stalled front in Western Mississippi. But, with the stable environment over the area, confidence is on the low side. The front will continue to push southward overnight before stalling just south of our forecast area. Overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s areawide, under mostly cloudy skies and light winds. With wet soils still in place, some patchy fog will be possible over the region.

As we move into Thursday, there is good model consensus that a potent short-wave will move along the established southwesterly upper flow across the region. This will generate a complex of showers and thunderstorms, that will move into our forecast zones throughout the day. We also expect the stalled front to lift back north over the region during the afternoon and evening hours, which will also be a focal point for additional showers and thunderstorms. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall today, generally due to the prolonged length of showers and thunderstorms. An active southwesterly flow pattern will continue Friday and through the upcoming weekend, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. As we move into next week, long-term progs have an upper trough and associated cool front moving into the Southern Plains. The trough is expected to close off and meander across North Texas and Central Oklahoma through the first half of the week, which will result in the associated cool front stalling across East Texas. This will keep widespread rain chances across the Four State Region during this period. With consecutive days and multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, the Weather Prediction Center is keeping the risk for Excessive Rainfall over the region. And even though no organize severe weather threat is expected during this period, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out. /20/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Tricky terminal forecast period coming up as we are currently seeing some low VFR ceilings seeing across SW AR into N LA with departing AC across NE LA and increasing cirrus from C TX. We are also seeing some patchy dense fog as well across our airspace which should become modified if and when we begin to see these IFR/LIFR or VLIFR ceilings develop overnight as a majority of progs suggest. So for this forecast package, trended ceilings from VFR variety to LIFR across most terminals with TEMPO MVFR VSBYs but some much lower VSBYS at ELD and TXK. After sunrise, we should see improving VSBYs but LIFR/IFR and/or MVFR ceilings will be slow to improve through the morning hours. Did try to bring most ceilings up to at least MVFR categories by early afternoon with the inclusion of VCTS as we are expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms develop south of our airspace and advance northward during the afternoon and evening hours. Kept TEMPO groups for a 4hr window of much stronger convective gusts and lower ceilings to account for TSTMS at each terminal. Look for ENE to E winds through the mid morning hours with speeds generally under 10kts. Those winds should veer around to more of a southeasterly component by afternoon with wind speeds increasing as well. Winds will of course be much stronger and gusty near TSRA.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours. However, some excessive rainfall and an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 68 84 68 86 / 70 40 30 70 MLU 68 84 68 87 / 70 60 30 60 DEQ 63 81 63 83 / 70 50 40 60 TXK 66 83 66 86 / 70 40 30 60 ELD 64 82 65 86 / 70 60 30 60 TYR 67 84 68 84 / 70 30 30 70 GGG 67 84 68 85 / 70 40 30 70 LFK 68 86 70 85 / 60 40 30 90

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.