textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 132 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Some rain chances will return to parts of the region from today through the end of the work week.

- A cold front is expected to push through the region by the start of next weekend, bringing dry weather and fall-like temperatures into the region.

- Some elevated fire conditions could return in wake of the cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Upper-ridging will remain in place today, but the aforementioned surface high has shifted east of the region. This will result in the return of deep southerly flow and an influx of low-level moisture into the region. This will be evident overnight, as low clouds will arrive across the region, along with higher dewpoints/humidity. Despite the ridge in place, short-term progs continue to suggest that the increased moisture, combined with daytime heating, will produce enough instability to ignite some convection. Some of this activity could start as early as mid- morning, with the deeper convection during the peak heating hours. The best chance for this will be across our East Texas and Louisiana zones, especially south of I-20, although an isolated shower or t- storm can't be ruled out over the remainder of the region. We continue to cross our fingers for this much needed rainfall, as some uncertainty remains on convection coverage due to the proximity of the ridge. I continued the trend of lowering NBM likely POPs, but I kept chance POPS over much of our Louisiana and Deep East Texas zones.

A slight pattern shift is still on tap for Wednesday and Thursday, as the center of the upper-ridge shifts eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley region. At the same time, a close upper trough will eject out of the Four Corners Region into the Central Plains. Ahead of that trough, the flow aloft will become more southwesterly, including areas as far south as our I-30 corridor and far western East Texas Counties. The remainder of the region will remain under the influence of the ridge. Mid-range models are trying to bring some rain chances to areas within the southwesterly flow, along with portions of our western East Texas zones on the periphery of the ridge. During the same period, areas beneath the ridge should remain dry. Again, it is very possible that rain chances could stay just to the north and west of the region, especially if the ridge doesn't shift as far east as advertised. However, decided to stick with the NBM again, and keep the rain chances in the forecast. By Friday, the Great Basin trough will open up and eject into the upper Midwest, driving a cold front across the region. Long-range models continue to back off on rain chances along the front, but they continue to bring a much cooler airmass into the region, with overnight lows possibly falling into the the 40s by Sunday morning. Unfortunately, due to the ongoing drought and expected gusty winds in wake of the front, fire conditions could become a major concern next weekend. /20/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For the 13/12Z TAF update, MVFR/IFR vis/cigs will be the primary flight conditions as southerly surface winds continue to import and maintain Gulf moisture through the period. Enough moisture will remain available for some MVFR/IFR through 13/15Z and VCTS after 13/18Z to 14/02Z. /16/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 132 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 91 73 92 66 / 30 10 10 0 MLU 93 68 95 63 / 30 20 0 0 DEQ 93 71 93 64 / 10 10 30 10 TXK 93 73 93 66 / 10 10 20 10 ELD 93 71 94 64 / 20 10 10 0 TYR 93 75 92 68 / 20 10 20 0 GGG 93 73 93 66 / 20 10 20 0 LFK 91 72 92 64 / 50 10 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.