textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 101 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Very warm and humid conditions will return to the area today, with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing during the afternoon and evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase after midnight northwest of the I-30 corridor, become more widespread Saturday while providing beneficial rainfall as they spread across the remainder of the region with the passage of a cold front. - Cooler and drier conditions will spill southeast in wake of the cold front Saturday night in time for Easter Sunday and to start the new work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The early morning satellite imagery indicates stratocu cigs quickly developing while spreading N across the region, and should overspread all of the area prior to daybreak. These cigs, and SErly winds, will not allow for temps to fall much farther through daybreak, with cigs lifting through the morning but doubtful to scatter out for the afternoon as low level moisture continues to deepen across the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley. The flow aloft is expected to transition to SW after daybreak this morning, ahead of upper troughing extending from Wrn WY S through UT, which will translate E through the Plains today. The various short term progs continue to suggest that a weak perturbation will eject NE across the area this afternoon well ahead of the primary upper trough axis, with associated ascent aiding in the development of isolated to widely scattered convection especially during the afternoon. The NBM finally has toned back pops compared to earlier runs, with chance pops more reasonable especially across portions of N LA/Srn AR. Meanwhile, convection will increase by mid and late afternoon farther W from the Ozarks SW through Nrn and Cntrl OK into WCntrl TX, along and just ahead of a cold front that will shift SE through Cntrl KS into NW OK into the TX Panhandle. Ample instability within a strongly sheared and moist air mass should yield the development of scattered to numerous severe storms during the afternoon over these areas, with the convection congealing into a MCS as it gradually progresses SE through N TX/Ern OK/NW and NCntrl AR overnight. This convection should enter the NW zones after midnight, although the severe threat should be diminishing by this time with reduced instability. However, locally heavy rainfall will be possible from N TX into Srn and Ern OK late before the convective complex begins to steadily shift SE late along the cold front.

The primary trough axis remains progged to shift E into the Midwest and MS Valley Saturday, although adequate forcing along and ahead of the trough/attendant front will maintain organized convection as it slides SE through the region. Still can't rule out isolated strong to severe convection with gusty winds mainly over Lower E TX and NCntrl LA Saturday afternoon as the convection taps into a warmer and very moist air mass which should yield increasing MLCapes, but bulk shear remains progged to gradually weaken through the day but should remain strong enough to maintain the convection before weakening late in the day into the evening as the primary forcing with the upper trough begins top shift E of the area. The cooler NBM guidance also suggests that instability may be limited as well, also leading to greater confidence of a minimal severe threat. While the GFS has trended lower with storm total QPF S of I-20, the other guidance as well as WPC continues to maintain widespread 1-2+ inch QPF over the region, with the higher totals possible over portions of SE OK and Wrn AR where cell training will be possible initially late tonight before the MCS begins to shift more SE. In any case, drought conditions may be temporarily alleviated at best, before another prolonged period of dryness re-establishes itself for the remainder of the forecast period. Temps should start to cool across McCurtain County around or shortly after daybreak with the cold fropa, with the cooler air gradually spreading SE through the remainder of the area through the day, with the front exiting the region by midnight Saturday night.

Despite the exiting front, some residual -SHRA may linger across Deep E TX and Cntrl LA through Easter morning, with considerable elevated cigs continuing to spill E beneath the upper trough over all but the far Nrn zones. With sfc ridging also building SSE into the area Sunday, temps Easter Sunday should remain below normal, with lower RH's providing a nice reprieve in the high humidities as of late. Cool nights and mild days characterized by these slightly below to near normal temps should persist areawide through at least Tuesday with the aid of a reinforcement of sfc ridging Tuesday morning, although a slow warming trend will commence by mid and late week as a SSErly low level flow returns on the backside of the departing sfc ridge. However, low level moisture return will be slow to occur, thus delaying the return for our next wetting rains until the end or just beyond the long term period.

15

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR ceilings at the start of the TAF period to become VFR by 03/18Z. Expect VCSH/VCTS conditions across most terminals this afternoon, with convection diminishing shortly after sunset. MVFR ceilings forecast to return areawide overnight with VCTS conditions possible across TXK/TYR near 04/10Z as a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. South winds to increase to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts today diminishing to around 10 knots after 04/00Z. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 101 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed today, but may be needed late tonight over Southeast Oklahoma, portions of extreme Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 85 68 75 52 / 30 30 100 40 MLU 87 67 80 54 / 50 20 100 60 DEQ 83 58 65 43 / 30 80 100 10 TXK 86 68 69 49 / 30 60 100 20 ELD 85 66 76 49 / 40 30 100 40 TYR 85 67 73 50 / 20 50 100 20 GGG 85 67 73 50 / 20 40 100 30 LFK 84 68 79 56 / 20 20 100 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.