textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- The coolest temperatures of the season are on deck for much of the region early Sunday morning, with a few patches of frost not out of the realm of possibility.

- Cooler than average temperatures this weekend will be followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout and a continued background fire weather threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

A chilly morning across the Ark-La-Tx will give way to continued fall-like temperatures thanks to the cooler airmass that has recently settled over the area. Afternoon highs should climb back into the low to mid 70s on Sunday. However, another upper- level ridge is beginning to build back over the Southern Plains and will work to warm things back up into the 80s by midweek. In addition, broad subsidence from the ridge will keep skies mostly clear and prevent any rain from providing relief.

The gusty winds that accompanied the arrival of our current airmass have weakened, which means the Red Flag Warnings have been allowed to expire Saturday evening. We have elected to carry a Fire Danger Statement areawide for Sunday to highlight continued fire danger, even with weaker winds. The dry air will be sticking around despite the expected warming. In fact, RH's during the afternoons are likely to worsen further into the extended period. Parts of south central and southwest AR could see RH's below 20 percent by Wednesday, with most other locations seeing min RH's in the 20 to 30 percent range. On one hand, this will keep heat indices low and make being outside as comfortable as possible. On the other, ongoing drought and already extremely dry fuels will be exacerbated by the dry air and keep fire danger a top concern. Members of the public should continue to follow the direction of local officials on outdoor burning, even without a Red Flag Warning in place.

Rain potential looks extremely slim for the foreseeable future. The only possibility at this point would come from troughing over the western CONUS building over the next few days. Current long- range models have the building ridge keeping any activity that would come off this trough too far north. But plenty could happen between now and then.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, super nice fall pattern of cooler air on NE winds the last day or two. Gusts have already fallen off with E/NE winds this cycle near 5KT or < overnight and back to 8KT by mid morning. Climb winds are NE10-20KT and back to NW by 15kft with 20-50KT for FLs. Surface high pressure over the MS River Valley will park for a while, even be recharged in the new week to continue this fair weather pattern toward the end of the month. Little to no rainfall is expected for the next week plus. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Spotter activation may be needed through the rest of the weekend in the event of wildfire development.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 46 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 44 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 39 75 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 43 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 40 74 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 46 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 44 72 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 47 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.