textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- A gradual warming trend will continue Tuesday throughout the remainder of this week.

- An extended period of dryness is expected throughout this week into at least the first half of next weekend, with no additional relief to the ongoing drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

The early morning sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging extending from the Mid-South region SW into ECntrl TX. Meanwhile, the early morning satellite imagery depicts areas of thin cirrus cigs quickly spreading E across the Srn Plains, ahead of a weak upper trough noted on the water vapor loop over SE AZ/SW NM. Believe that the cirrus cigs will remain thin enough not to offset the extent of radiational cooling overnight, but temps tonight will be the coolest of the entire forecast period, as we undergo a gradual warming trend Tuesday through the upcoming weekend. Secondary sfc ridging remains progged to backdoor SW into the area through/after daybreak Tuesday, reinforcing the dry air mass already in place. This will also maintain an Erly low level flow over the region through at least Wednesday morning, before winds begin to veer more SE. Given the longer duration that the progs depict now in maintaining these Erly winds and keeping the Gulf cut off, low level moisture return will also be delayed until Wednesday night/Thursday.

The aforementioned upper trough over the Desert SW remains progged to traverse E into the Srn Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, which will act to thicken the elevated cigs already in place. These thickening cigs will do little through to inhibit the continued warming trend, with near normal temps Tuesday expected, with the cigs deterring the extent of radiational cooling and thus milder (but cool) temps Tuesday night. Did bump up the NBM max temps 1-2 degrees again Tuesday, given that the trend in bumping up temps over the NBM has worked well the last couple of days, and strong insolation should again result in warmer temps. Even with the return of a SE low level flow by mid and late morning Wednesday, drier air should again mix down to the sfc and slow the Nwd return of Gulf moisture. Insolation may be more limited initially to start the day as the shortwave trough shifts E over the region, but the elevated cigs should eventually thin/diminish from W to E through the day resulting in the return to above normal temps. With the trough's departure, a WNW flow aloft is progged, with any low level moisture return now progged to be more shallow, thus delaying any isolated convection from reaching the Srn zones until at least late week.

The ensembles continue to suggest that upper ridging will begin to amplify NE from the Cntrl Gulf and over our region into the Lower MS Valley Thursday night and into the SE states Friday, thus maintaining relatively dry conditions with even warmer temps to start the upcoming weekend. This ridging looks to hold into the first half of the weekend, before troughing along the CA coast induces SW flow aloft from the Desert SW into the Cntrl/Srn Plains. Perturbations in this flow regime should enhance convection development over the Srn Plains (and just W of the region) Saturday, before the ridge axis is able to be nudged far enough E by the initial NE ejecting trough which should help in shifting the more organized convection farther E into E TX/SE OK and possibly SW AR Sunday. However, confidence remains low given the lack of run to run consistency the last few days and the flip flopping of pops with the NBM, and will be dependent on the timing of the eventual trough ejection and and how strong the upper ridging can linger as to whether this convection can build farther E into the region. In any case, the current forecast reflects a more prolonged and persistently dry conditions over much of the region through the vast majority of the period, thus maintaining no timely and additional relief to the ongoing drought conditions.

15

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this 24hr TAF period. High clouds continue returning from the west and will thicken as the day goes on. Look for light northeast to east winds through sunrise with winds become ESE during the day with speeds near 10kts with some higher gusts possible.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Wednesday. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 76 53 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 78 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 75 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 76 53 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 76 48 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 75 55 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 75 53 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 76 52 80 56 / 0 0 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.