textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Quiet night tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

- A line of showers and thunderstorms could move into the region beginning early tomorrow morning, depending on if a proper outflow boundary develops.

- Another cool front will sink down across the Plains and middle MS River valley bringing focus for additional showers and thunderstorms early to midweek as temperatures warm up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Sea breeze driven showers are moving northward late this morning and will persist through the afternoon. Rain rates with these showers have been relatively lower than we've seen in recent days, but flash flood guidance is not much higher than 2 inches across the region. As such, isolated areas of flash flooding could occur if any showers can train over one area long enough. There could also be some severe potential with these storms, but flooding will be the primary risk today. Showers will dissipate this evening and leave mostly clear skies across the region early tonight. Cloud cover will begin increasing again ahead of the next frontal boundary soon after midnight, keeping slightly warmer overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

CAMs are hinting at an MCS developing in northeastern OK/northwestern AR overnight and moving southeast. There seems to be agreement that this MCS will move through AR toward the Ark-La-Miss by mid morning. The more conditional risk for the Ark-La-Tx involves a possible outflow boundary from the early stages of this MCS moving southward and being the focus for another line of showers and thunderstorms. This scenario could bring severe and flash flooding potential from daybreak through the early afternoon hours. All this being said, this would be dependent on the outflow boundary development actually happening, which is uncertain right now.

The frontal boundary that would initiate the initial MCS is expected to move over southeast OK and southern AR and stall for several days. This could keep rain chances in our northern zones until the front moves northward Thursday night. The extent of the rain chances will be heavily dependent on where the front sets up, but the northern third of the CWA is the current thinking. While this front is set up, temperatures on the south side will gradually climb from the low 90s to the mid to upper 90s. Areas on the north side will largely stay in the upper 80s to low 90s with persistent cloud cover. Once the front moves back up north, we will be back to our northwest flow pattern going into the weekend.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

IFR/LIFR cigs have developed over much of the region this morning, with patchy FG also noted over portions of Deep E TX, as well as ELD. These cigs should slowly lift/become MVFR by mid-morning, and eventually VFR by midday, with the exception of LFK as a band of convection associated with an enhanced seabreeze continues to make rapid NE progress into Deep E TX by 14-15Z. Have inserted tempo thunder mention at LFK after 14Z, as well as the GGG/SHV/MLU terminals from late morning through early afternoon. This convection should also affect the SW AR terminals by early afternoon, but will quickly exit the region and diminish by 20-22Z. Gusty winds to 30-35kts as well as vsby reductions will also accompany the convection, with VFR conditions expected in their wake with a scattered cu field and lingering low AC/cirrus cigs. These cigs should diminish by early afternoon with a few residual cu possibly lingering through the evening, before low MVFR cigs redevelop and spread back N into the region after 06Z Monday. An MCS should also slide SE from Cntrl/Ern OK and NW AR and could possibly move into extreme SE OK/adjacent SW AR shortly before daybreak Monday, but should remain N of the TXK terminal through the end of the 21/12Z TAF period. S winds 10-14kts with gusts to 25kts today, except higher gusts in/near the convection, will diminish to 8-12kts after 00Z. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed today, but may be needed prior to daybreak Monday across Southeast Oklahoma and the northern sections of Southwest Arkansas for the approaching complex of strong thunderstorms. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 77 93 78 92 / 10 20 20 10 MLU 77 94 77 93 / 10 30 40 20 DEQ 75 88 73 88 / 50 70 80 60 TXK 77 92 76 91 / 30 50 60 40 ELD 76 92 75 90 / 20 40 60 30 TYR 78 94 78 94 / 10 10 10 0 GGG 77 93 77 93 / 10 10 20 0 LFK 77 95 77 95 / 10 10 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.