textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

- A warming trend will continue through the remainder of the work week into the first half of next weekend, with above normal temperatures expected.

- Dry conditions will also continue through much of not all of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

The late evening sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging anchored over the Lower MS Valley into Wrn LA, beneath expansive flat ridging aloft that extends from the Srn Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Despite the good radiational cooling, 05Z temps are running some 3-7 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, indicative of the warming trend underway. Thus, temps Tuesday morning will not be as cold as what was observed this morning, with additional warming expected Tuesday through the remainder of the work week as more of a SSWrly low level flow develops on the backside of the departing sfc ridge as it shifts E into the TN valley and the SE CONUS. After observing near normal temps earlier this afternoon, an extended period of above normal temps are expected Tuesday through the first half of the upcoming weekend as the Srly low level flow persists through the period. Ridging aloft remains progged to flatten further and be nudged farther S along the TX Coastal Plains into the Nrn Gulf by Wednesday, as the progressive zonal flow aloft builds S in wake of the lead shortwave trough passage traversing the Midwest/Great Lakes/OH Valley areas.

With the Srly low level flow will come a gradual increase in RH's, which will be most notably observed by Wednesday as some patchy low stratus may develop after daybreak across portions of Deep E TX into Cntrl/S LA. While this should mostly mix out later in the morning, low level moisture may deepen sufficiently enough for a weak diurnal cu field Thursday as 60+ degrees dewpoints return to the region. The various ensembles still suggest the passage of a subtle shortwave trough across the Plains Friday morning and into the MS Valley during the afternoon, which will usher a weak sfc front into the region. However, low level moisture will remain shallow and forcing nearly non-existent, and thus, dry conditions should persist into the coming weekend. However, will have to wait for the next amplifying upper trough over the Plains Saturday night which will reinforce a stronger cold front SE into the region Saturday night/Sunday morning, returning cooler/drier air back into the region. However, the progs have also trended drier with this fropa, as moisture will remain too shallow to support convection development. However, the first freeze of the season may occur for at least the Nrn sections of the region by next Monday morning, but will have to wait and see how much the air mass modifies as it surges S as to whether this occurs or not.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

For the 04/06z TAF update...VFR conditions continue to prevail across the region as skies remain clear throughout this TAF period. Winds will be light and variable tonight, becoming southerly and light for Tuesday. Some models were hinting at some patchy fog development for MLU towards morning, but it was not enough for me to bite and add it at this time, but there is still that potential for some and we will handle it with AMD if needed. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Spotter activation will not be needed through Tuesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 44 78 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 42 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 41 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 47 77 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 40 73 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 47 77 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 44 76 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 43 77 51 82 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.