textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Enough cold air will seep into South Arkansas for frost development and a Freeze Warning in effect into Saturday morning.

- Next week will begin cold and wet with the next chance of rain on Sunday/Monday most likely producing 0.5-1.25 inch rainfall totals by the middle of the week.

- A gradual warm-up returns by the middle of next week, pushing temperature maximums/minimums back to near seasonable lower 70s/lower 40s, respectively.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Cold air advection continues to gradually wane with light northeasterly winds fading in strength across the Four State Region. Overnight temperatures (combined with clearing skies) will favor a brief window for maximized radiational cooling, especially for the Ouachita River Valley with near-freezing temperatures likely. Aloft, longwave troughing will slowly pull away through the weekend towards the Atlantic Ocean. Simultaneously, troughing across the Intermountain West will influence the development of lee cyclogenesis for the mid-level trough to shift across the Southern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi River Valley with our main rain chance in the next 7 days. WPC Day 1-7 QPF totals remain in the 1-1.5 inch range, with better rainfall totals west of I-49.

Medium range guidance suggests ridging that redevelops and builds behind the mid-level trough by the middle of next week. The flatter ridging that will return sets up a southwesterly flow pattern, supporting a gradual warm-up in temperature maximums/minimums back to near seasonable lower 70s/lower 40s, respectively. Long range guidance suggests gradual moistening of the atmosphere by the end of next week, with rain chances to be better resolved in future forecasts. /16/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

For the 14/18z TAF period...Expect VFR conditions to continue throughout the period, but TAF locations will see some increasing mid and high cloud cover. Current northeast winds will gradually shift to more of an easterly direction. Gusts could approach 20 mph, especially across our East Texas sites on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1157 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A Fire Danger Statement is in effect today until 6 PM, as min RH values between 30 to 35%, Northeast wind gusts up to 15 mph, and critically to extremely dry fuels will create elevated wildfire conditions. Outdoor burning and activities that involve open sparks or flames are discouraged. Please report all wildfires to local law enforcement as soon as possible. /20/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1159 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 41 61 44 53 / 0 0 10 70 MLU 36 59 39 59 / 0 0 0 20 DEQ 34 58 37 51 / 0 0 20 80 TXK 37 58 41 51 / 0 0 10 80 ELD 32 59 35 56 / 0 0 0 40 TYR 44 64 45 52 / 0 0 50 100 GGG 41 62 42 52 / 0 0 20 90 LFK 44 66 45 59 / 0 0 20 80

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for ARZ050-051-059-060-070>072.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for ARZ061-073.

LA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for LAZ004-005-013-014-021.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for LAZ006.

OK...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...None.