textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- An upper trough axis will remain over our region through mid- week, keeping rain chances and low-end severe risks over the area. Locally heavy rain could also result in flash flooding.

- The rain won't be a complete washout everywhere, allowing warm and humid conditions to remain, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.

- The trough axis is expected to lift NE of our region by late week with upper ridging beginning to exert greater influence across our region, which would mean a trend toward hotter and drier conditions once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Isolated convection is starting to form around the upper trough axis across the region. Some of this convection has been pretty strong, which has prompted a severe thunderstorm warning in Upshur County, TX. Additional convection is expected to form this afternoon into the early evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center Microburst Composite is very high today, which has prompted them to issue a Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon/evening. I wouldn't be surprised to see a watch in the next hour or two, with damaging winds being the main concern. In addition to the wind threat, these storms will initially be slow movers. Given the near 2" PWAT values over the region, locally heavy rain could yield flash flooding concerns over the area. Models have struggled with initializing this event, but there are some indications that some of this convection could continue into the late evening and possible overnight hours.

Rain chances with locally heavy rainfall, and at least a low-end severe weather risk, will remain in the forecast through mid- week, as upper troughing will remain across the region. It won't be a complete washout everyday, so the heat and humidity could be a concern for areas that receive little amounts of rain, as afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 90s. Uncertainty still remains beyond the middle of this week, but models continue to hint at the return of upper ridging returning over the region for the end of the current work week, which would give us a break from the rain. It would also bring warmer conditions back into the region as well. For next weekend, long-term progs are trying to bring rain chances back into the region in the form of afternoon seabreeze type convection. /20/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 718 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, squall line moved from KSHV to near KIER with heavy storms movg to near KAEX/KMLU on the outflow. Gust front extends near KELD with rain dissipating. Other pop-up storms near KTYR and more approaching KTXK. So amendments to come perhaps this evening, but sundown will diminish coverage. Little change in the offing with another banner day for convection again on Tuesday. S/SW winds 5-10KT will prevail, but vary with strong gusts near downpours. back to hot and dry later this week. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Spotter activation could be needed, as the threat of isolated to scattered severe storms could return through at least this evening, if not into the overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 74 91 74 93 / 50 40 20 30 MLU 74 92 74 93 / 50 40 30 40 DEQ 70 91 71 93 / 40 30 20 10 TXK 72 93 73 94 / 50 30 20 20 ELD 70 90 71 91 / 40 30 30 20 TYR 75 94 75 95 / 40 40 20 10 GGG 74 93 74 94 / 40 40 20 10 LFK 75 93 75 94 / 40 40 20 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.