textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 108 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Much above normal and near record high temperatures will continue across the region Wednesday, although isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon across portions of East Texas and North Louisiana.

- Increasing rain chances will result in slightly cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday before our annual Easter "cool snap" results in much cooler and drier air spilling into the region Saturday night and persisting into the start of the new work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The early morning satellite imagery indicates stratocu cigs have developed over SE TX and begun to shift N into portions of Deep E TX, with additional cirrus blowoff from ongoing convection over NW TX also spilling SE into the region. This convection should eventually weaken and diminish overnight, although additional low stratus cigs should develop farther E over S and Cntrl LA and spread N across the remainder of the area by daybreak Wednesday. These cigs should take a better part of the morning to lift, although isolated convection may develop by afternoon over portions of Deep E and E TX into N LA, along an axis of low level developing theta-e ridging. Have maintained slight chance pops for these areas, with any isolated convection expected to diminish by sunset. Should again see much above normal temps during the afternoon, with some readings expected to be near but mostly shy of record territory.

A shortwave trough currently observed via the water vapor imagery approaching the Srn CA coast is progged to translate E through the Four Corners Region Wednesday, before entering the Srn Rockies by early evening. Increasing large scale forcing ahead of the trough in VC of the W TX dryline should result in scattered supercell development which should congeal into a linear line during the late afternoon/early evening from the Ern TX Panhandle into Wrn OK, with the convection backbuilding S during the evening along the strengthening Srly LLJ axis as it slowly advances E across the Srn Plains and Ozarks through the remainder of the evening into the overnight hours. The short term progs have remained in good agreement in weakening this convection early Thursday morning as it enters SE OK/NE TX/SW AR prior to daybreak, with a weakening trend expected to continue through the remainder of the morning as the primary forcing along the trough axis shifts farther NNE into Cntrl AR and the Mid MS Valley. Have maintained likely pops across the Wrn half of the region Thursday morning, but did trim back pops to chance for the afternoon given the reduced forcing with the departing trough. QPF amounts with this initial line of decaying convection looks to remain rather meager, although the NBM remains very bullish in maintaining likely pops across the NW zones Thursday night with virtually no forcing aloft other than some weak orographic lift in the higher terrain of the Ouachitas along weak theta-e ridging. Thus, have trimmed back pops to slight chance for this area, although the mean flow will become more SW Friday ahead of sharper troughing aloft that will develop from the Plains into the Srn Rockies Friday afternoon and night. In fact, a more notable perturbation in the SW flow is progged to traverse the area Friday afternoon, which should invigorate scattered convection across the region.

The unsettled weather pattern will continue Friday night and Saturday as additional convection develops closer to the main upper trough axis From WCntrl and N TX into Cntrl OK, along an intensifying 40-50kt SWrly LLJ, ahead of an attendant cold front that will be reinforced SE into the Srn Plains/Ozarks Friday night. While some severe threat will exist Friday afternoon/evening across portions of the Srn Plains, this convection should gradually weaken as it moves into the region early Saturday morning given the bndry lyr stabilization. However, strong frontal convergence and forcing along the trough axis should maintain organized convection with heavy rainfall as it slides SE through the area through the day Saturday. A non-zero severe threat will exist Saturday as some SBCape will develop with insolation from portions of Deep E TX across NCntrl LA, although low level shear is progged to gradually weaken through the afternoon. QPF amounts look to be more impressive across the region Saturday than the Thursday system, although totals here will only temporarily ease the ongoing severe/extreme drought conditions as another prolonged period of dryness looks to develop in wake of the Easter cold fropa Saturday afternoon and evening.

Cool and comfortable conditions with below normal temperatures and low RH's are expected Easter Sunday, as sfc ridging builds SE into the area through the Mid-South region. A slow warming trend will commence to start the new work week, but readings will remain near normal Monday and Tuesday before moderating by mid and late week. With the Gulf remaining shut off through much of the next week, dry conditions looks to persist through the remainder of the extended period before the potential for convection eventually returns.

15

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, quiet evening with the last of a few showers diminishing. We will start to see more and more around in the coming days. Southerly flow 5-15G25KT with more morning stratus, not long after midnight for KFLK and by 09Z for our I-20 terminals. These decks will lift from MVFR to VFR before lunch. Models still looking at our first upper low upping the coverage of convection early Thursday and pop-ups on Friday. Then the frontal push will ramp up coverage this weekend with fropa early Sunday. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 108 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through Wednesday night. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 66 86 68 81 / 0 20 20 60 MLU 65 88 68 85 / 0 10 10 50 DEQ 60 85 64 80 / 0 10 60 80 TXK 68 88 68 82 / 0 20 40 70 ELD 63 86 65 81 / 0 10 10 50 TYR 68 86 67 80 / 0 20 50 80 GGG 67 85 67 80 / 0 20 40 80 LFK 66 85 68 80 / 0 30 20 60

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.