textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Rainfall will come to an end this evening and overnight, with dry conditions and near normal temperatures through tomorrow.

- The next round of moisture will arrive late tomorrow into Friday morning and afternoon as a strong arctic airmass spills southward into the region, transitioning rain to a winter mix of sleet and freezing rain, along with snow across the northern communities by the evening.

- Confidence continues to increase in a multi-day winter weather event with impacts extending across the entire Four State Region, followed by extremely cold temperatures into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Bands of scattered showers will continue to move from southwest to northeast across the ArkLaTex through the remainder of the day, with the system drifting east throughout, eventually confining further rainfall to our Louisiana parishes overnight, before exiting the region altogether by daybreak Thursday. With these continuing wet conditions and cloud cover throughout, latest short term guidance nudges this afternoon's highs down a bit from NBM, aiming for the middle to upper 50s north and lower 60s southwest. Overnight lows will range sharply from the low to middle 30s north to middle and upper 40s along and south of the I-20 corridor. Any freezing conditions will be short-lived and far enough behind the rain that no wintry precip is expected tonight.

With the departure of today's rain, Thursday looks to remain mostly dry through the daylight hours with highs in the 50s and 60s, followed by a carbon copy of tonight's lows once again. The first wave of moisture in the system which will be our big story looks to arrive late Thursday overnight into Friday, with precip expected to remain all liquid into the morning hours Friday.

Our winter weather impacts currently look to begin Friday afternoon along and north of I-30. Bear in mind, timing remains a point of uncertainty between forecast models, and this consensus may still swing slightly earlier or later as new model runs come in. Friday looks to see a transition from rain to wintry mix from the north through the afternoon, with freezing rain and sleet spreading south through the evening, likely reaching the the I-20 corridor sometime around midnight Saturday, and continuing south towards daybreak. Based on temperature projections and high confidence PoPs, wintry precip looks to continue through the day Saturday and through Saturday night for the vast majority of the ArkLaTex.

The latest NBM ensemble guidance continues to paint significant wintry precip accumulations across much of the ArkLaTex, with storm total ice accumulations of at least a quarter of an inch areawide, and widespread values of near or exceeding half an inch to as high as three-quarters of an inch. Exact placement of the corridor of highest accum values continues to migrate slightly with each run, but remains consistently over the ArkLaTex. Storm total snow accumulations may range from 1 to 3 inches along the I-20 corridor to as high as 4+ inches along and north of the I-30 corridor. Given these forecast values, not to mention the potential wind impacts adding to the number of downed tree limbs, preparing now for lengthy power outages concurrent with very cold conditions would be advisable.

As with the onset of the wintry precip, the timing of its conclusion also remains uncertain, but the latest ensemble guidance trends PoPs downward as Sunday continues, indicating a possible transition to snow on the back side of this system as it departs, before precip finally comes to an end by Sunday evening.

In addition to the effects of the winter weather itself, the associated cold will pose a hazard, especially into early next week. From 40s and 50s Friday afternoon, temps will plunge below freezing overnight, into the teens north to just below freezing south, climbing only into the lower 20s north to just barely above freezing south Saturday as the wintry precip continues. Values trend colder into Sunday as impacts continue, plunging dramatically into the teens south and single digits north by daybreak Monday and again on Tuesday, followed by a warming trend and quiet conditions into the middle of next week.

/26/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

For the 22/00z TAF update...Radar imagery continues to show some light showers across portions of deep east Texas and central and northeast Louisiana. The only terminal still impacted with the the rain is KMLU and that should come to an end in the next few hours. We are still hanging onto some BKN and OVC low clouds around 1-4k feet this evening, and it appears as though these will drop through the overnight hours with BR lingering through the night. This will bring fairly widespread MVFR to IFR and some occasional LIFR conditions through the overnight hours. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1259 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through at least Thursday. /53/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 47 59 44 52 / 30 0 40 60 MLU 48 56 44 50 / 70 20 40 50 DEQ 32 53 33 42 / 0 0 30 70 TXK 41 54 38 44 / 10 0 30 70 ELD 39 53 36 43 / 20 10 30 50 TYR 46 61 46 52 / 0 0 30 80 GGG 45 59 44 52 / 10 0 40 70 LFK 52 64 52 60 / 30 10 30 60

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.