textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1259 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Rain chances will increase through the morning, with areawide rain showers by the afternoon as temperatures remain near normal for at least Wednesday and Thursday.

- A drier Thursday will prevail ahead of increasing moisture and precipitation chances into Friday morning and afternoon as a strong arctic airmass spills southward into the region, transitioning rain to a winter mix of sleet and freezing rain, along with snow across the northern communities by the evening.

- Confidence is increasing in a multi-day winter weather event with impacts extending across the entire Four State Region as temperatures remain below freezing into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Cloud cover continues to evolve across the local area tonight as PWAT values steadily increase over the last 6 hours across southern and central Texas. As this moisture advects north, and in advance of a shortwave trough kicking east across the DFW metro, light to moderate rain showers will develop and spread across the Four State Region through daybreak, with coverage continuing to increase through the afternoon. Given that temperatures will remain relatively mild and near seasonal, averaging in the mid and upper 50's and low to mid 60's, there is no concern as this will all be rain. Rain chances will taper off towards the evening hours of Wednesday and into Thursday as a drier column settles into the region, with point and click soundings suggesting a dry Thursday ahead of retuning moisture Friday.

By Friday morning, moisture in advance of a maturing jet will advect back north, with a combo of Gulf and Pacific moisture working in unison to push local PWATs to around an inch by noon. Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) modeling showcases the evolution of the eastern Pacific and Gulf moisture advection as it stretches across the deep south through the weekend. This is problematic as a cold arctic high rushes south from Saskatchewan plunging temperatures well below freezing at the surface. The combination of the aforementioned moisture transport, large scale ascent pattern and cold airmass sets the stage for a messy winter weather situation across the southern half of the country. To add to the equation, warmer air aloft above freezing will allow for a mix of winter precip types where freezing rain and sleet look to prevail for a good majority of the region. For now, and given some disagreement among the global guidance for timing and intensity of the sub-freezing surface temperatures, combined with the varying extents of the modeled warm nose aloft, it is still a tad early to get into specific amounts for ice and sleet accumulations. That being said, and given the setup mentioned above, confidence continues to grow for an impactful winter weather event to occur across the Four State Region through the upcoming weekend.

It can not be stressed enough the importance of monitoring the forecast in the coming days as changes are likely one way or another. To assist in this, and to further sharpen the forecast and model guidance available, recon missions by the United States Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron off the coast of California are scheduled for tomorrow afternoon to investigate the the developing upper disturbance that will dig across the Baja peninsula Friday, into Saturday. This feature, even given its distance from our area, will play a critical role in the evolution of this forecast in the days to come. It is expected that what does get sampled tomorrow afternoon, and when ingested into the model guidance, will make changes to modeled solutions. Again, in what way they do is still to be determined, which is why it is crucial to stay up to date with the forecast in the coming days.

For now, the bulk of the moisture is progged to depart the local area Sunday afternoon, or early evening at the latest. Though guidance has backed off in recent runs on holding on to varying p-types into Monday, temperatures across the region will continue to be well below freezing, and potentially cooler when compared to current guidance citing assistance from snow/ice/sleet on the ground. As a result, what does materialize will take some time to melt, with the same logic applying to untreated pipes. It is important to remember that preparation defeats panic. Temperatures will climb above freezing as early as Tuesday afternoon, as the forecast calls for highs in the upper 40's.

RK

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

For the 21/12z TAFS...VFR ceilings to lower through the morning with periods of -ra expected throughout the day. Although precipitation is expected to depart most sites by 22/00Z, lingering rain chances may persist across LFK/MLU through 22/06Z. IFR/LIFR CIGs expected across all sites by 22/00Z...continuing through 22/12Z except for possibly TXK as ceilings may lift to MVFR. Otherwise, southerly winds up to 7 knots this morning to become northerly around 5 knots by 22/00Z. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1259 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through at least Thursday. /53/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 60 46 59 44 / 90 30 20 40 MLU 59 47 57 43 / 90 60 30 40 DEQ 59 31 54 33 / 80 0 10 30 TXK 59 40 54 38 / 90 0 10 40 ELD 55 39 53 34 / 90 30 20 40 TYR 61 45 61 45 / 90 10 10 40 GGG 61 44 59 43 / 90 20 10 40 LFK 64 51 64 51 / 80 30 20 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.