textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Very low chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday before increasing during the day Tuesday and into Tuesday evening, especially across Louisiana and East Texas south of Interstate 20.

- Very warm temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday. Most locations across the western half of the ArkLaTex have a medium chance (45 to 75 percent) of high temperatures above 95 degrees F during the daytime on Monday and Tuesday. A few locations have high chances (greater than 75 percent).

- Somewhat cooler temperatures will return for the latter half of the week. More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms return Friday and into next weekend, which should help keep temperatures in check.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Weak upper-level ridging remains over the Southern Plains and should keep most of the forecast area dry. However, a couple of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms have already been observed over portions of Southern Arkansas. Isolated convection will remain possible in this area and farther southeast into Northeast Louisiana through this evening. Upper ridging is expected to amplify slightly for Monday keeping rain chances very low for most of the day. However, a weak vort max trapped under the ridge could result in some isolated showers and thunderstorms across East Texas and Northern Louisiana early Monday evening. The ArkLaMiss region should see better rain chances as convection develops along a stationary front to our northwest and moves south.

Perhaps the bigger story for Monday and Tuesday will be the continuation of well above-normal temperatures. Most of the area should warm into the mid 90s on Monday, and most areas southwest of a line from Broken Bow OK to Jena LA should do so again on Tuesday. Compressional warming ahead of a backdoor cold front could push daytime temps very close to the century mark over a couple of places in East Texas. A weak upper trough diving south across Missouri should aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the area along and south of Interstate 20 Tuesday afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front. Rain chances should end by early Wednesday morning as diurnal instability wanes and as the front moves south of the forecast area.

Northwest surface winds in the wake of the front combined with the upper ridge moving into the Southeast CONUS will bring drier air and some cool temperatures. From Wednesday through Saturday, daytime highs should generally hold steady in the lower 80s in Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas to near 90 degrees F in our southwest zones of East Texas. Deep layer southerly flow should return during the latter half of the week resulting in a gradually increase in deep layer moisture. A series of upper troughs moving across the Southern High Plains should bring chances for at least scattered thunderstorms back to the entire forecast area for Friday and into next weekend. At this time range, model guidance is pretty broad-brushed with rain chances, particularly during peak daytime heating when instability is highest, which isn't unusual in a summertime environment and this type of pattern with no real surface fronts to focus and organize convective development.

Nuttall

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

For the 31/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail this afternoon across our airspace as another expansive cu field has developed in this very warm and humid air mass. By mid to late afternoon, isolated showers and a few stray thunderstorms may begin to move into our northeastern airspace so have maintained VCTS wording from 31/22Z-01/02Z at KELD. Any convection that develops should diminish shortly after sunset with the loss of afternoon heating. Some lingering mid and high clouds will likely persist into the overnight hours with some low stratus and patchy fog affecting KLFK closer to daybreak. Otherwise, look for another cu field to develop by late morning on Monday as light southerly winds from 5-10 kts on average will prevail through the period.

/19/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 76 96 75 94 / 0 0 10 20 MLU 75 95 74 91 / 20 10 20 20 DEQ 73 95 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 75 97 74 94 / 0 0 10 10 ELD 73 94 72 89 / 10 0 20 10 TYR 75 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 20 GGG 76 95 75 96 / 0 0 10 30 LFK 75 95 75 96 / 0 0 10 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.