textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Slightly milder temperatures are expected today following the recent cold frontal passage.

- The frontal boundary now nearly stalled along the coast will begin a slow northward retreat on Thursday night, resulting in high temperatures near 80 degrees in southern zones on Friday.

- Gulf moisture advection along warm front will fuel widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday through Saturday night, aided by a potent upper-level trough and Pacific cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A noticeably cooler post-frontal air mass has slowly settled over the region in the wake of our recent cold frontal passage. Mostly clear skies largely prevail except for our extreme southern zones where lingering low stratus is hanging on just behind the front. Where skies have cleared out, temperatures have fallen off quickly overnight into the 40s and low to mid 50s with room to drop off a few more degrees before daybreak. After a cool start this morning, temperatures will climb back comfortably into the upper 60s to mid 70s for afternoon highs under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Another mild night will follow on Thursday night as cirrus clouds continue to increase from the west, yielding overnight lows from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

By Friday, the stalled front along the coast is expected to begin lifting back northward and allow for high temperatures well above average on Friday afternoon. For areas along and south of I-20 in E TX and NW LA, afternoon highs will likely be pushing 80 degrees. In addition, look for increasing moisture advection through Friday night into Saturday as the focus quickly shifts to our next major weather disturbance quickly approaching from the west. In advance of this upper-level trough ejection across the Southern Plains on Saturday, increasing SW flow aloft combined with the sfc boundary lifting back across the Red River Valley will result in scattered convection beginning late Friday into Friday night across our NW zones generally along and north of I-30.

As the trough quickly pivots across TX and into our region during the day on Saturday, large scale ascent and increased forcing will result in showers and thunderstorms expanding eastward throughout the day. In terms of timing, guidance continues to trend later in the afternoon and evening/overnight with respect to the strongest convection likely becoming more linear across East TX by late in the afternoon before entering SW AR and NW LA closer to sunset and into the early evening hours. That doesn't preclude the chance for some scattered variety showers earlier in the day/afternoon across these areas, but the period of most impactful thunderstorms and heavy rainfall has trended later in the afternoon and even beyond that into the evening and overnight for some of our eastern zones as you move east of the I-49 corridor.

In terms of threats and impacts, some stronger and even isolated severe storms still appear to be in play during this event. For now, a damaging wind threat may be possible especially with any linear complex/QLCS while the training of storms may also present a heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat. This has already been highlighted in the Day 3 ERO with a general range of 1-2 inches of rainfall expected. Localized higher amounts, especially in urban areas, could lead to even more flash flooding concerns despite a relative lack of recent rainfall and ongoing drought conditions.

Convection should largely exit much of the region by daybreak on Sunday, but some discrepancies in guidance continue to point to a slower trough ejection and an associated closed low maintaining additional showers and isolated thunderstorms through at least the first half of Sunday. Therefore, the forecast continues to reflect this possibility before gradually clearing out all the convection and cloud cover by late Sunday through Sunday night. Dry weather and above normal temperatures will make a return and prevail for the early to middle part of next week.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions currently prevailing at all terminals but there is an area of MVFR ceilings noted across Central and East Central Louisiana. IR Imagery showing this moisture moving slowly westward and cannot rule out some of these ceilings moving into the LFK terminal near or shortly after sunrise. Kept this cloud cover south of the I-20 Terminals overnight and through the day Thursday. Look for high thin clouds to increase however across our airspace during the day Thursday. Look for winds to gradually veer around to the east and southeast with speeds generally under 10kts through the forecast period.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1231 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Friday.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 72 52 79 60 / 0 0 10 10 MLU 70 50 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 67 44 71 54 / 0 0 20 50 TXK 70 49 76 59 / 0 0 20 30 ELD 68 46 74 55 / 0 0 10 10 TYR 74 54 79 60 / 0 0 10 20 GGG 73 51 79 58 / 0 0 10 10 LFK 76 55 79 59 / 0 0 0 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.