textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Warm and moist southerly flow ahead of a front will promote strong instability across our region this afternoon into the evening with an expanding severe threat during this timeframe.

- An active weather period is expected through this weekend into early next week, including daily severe weather chances across much of the region late Saturday and possibly through Monday.

- Some Uncertainty exists for the middle of next week, but there is the potential for an active southwesterly flow pattern to develop, keeping rain chances across the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A decaying line of convection from morning storms ahead of a cold front continues to push southward into Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest/South-Central Arkansas at this current hour. We are starting to see some convection reform along this remnant activity, which could become a concern, as there is a very unstable atmosphere in place across the region. On the KSHV 18z sounding, mid-level lapse rates were over 8 C/km, with Sfc based CAPE over 2500 J/Kg. There is also sufficient 0-1 km SRH over the area along with 40 kt of Deep layer shear. In addition to this, the aforementioned cold front continues to slowly push southeastward across Central Oklahoma towards our area. Strong to severe convection has already started to fire along that boundary. Because of these concerns, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch through 9 PM for Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and adjacent SW Arkansas. This area generally covers our I-30 corridor, but remains north of I-20. An additional watch is probable downstream later today, as convection is expected to form into a MCS and push south into the region during the evening hours. All modes of severe weather will be in play, including hail over 2" and a isolated tornado or two of at least EF2 strength. The front is expected to stall near the Arkansas/Louisiana border, back across East Texas near the I-30 corridor. Convection is expected to diminish overnight, but it's not out of the question to see some additional convection during the late morning and early afternoon hours along the stalled front or remnant mesoscale boundaries. However, Saturday night is where we expect our next round of severe convection. The front is expected to lift northward during the afternoon hours. Additional convection is expected to form along the lifting front, eventually forming into a cluster of storms. This cluster is expected to shift southeastward back into our forecast area during the late evening hours and predawn hours on Sunday. A very unstable atmosphere will still be in place over the region, so all modes of severe weather should be in play again.

We may see a brief quiet period starting on Sunday afternoon as weak upper ridging tries to build over the area. But, another front will move into the region on Monday, bringing another round of convection. We can't rule out some additional strong to severe thunderstorms with this system. Beyond Monday, uncertainty remains in the forecast. Long-term models continue to hint at upper ridging over the region, but the location of the ridge will play a vital role in our weather conditions. If the center of the ridge settles across the Central Gulf, it would essentially put our forecast zones in a potentially active southwest flow pattern, with rain chances remaining across the region. However, if the ridge is farther north, we would see drier conditions over the area. Please continue to monitor the forecast for updates. /20/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Sites are prevailing borderline MVFR/VFR conditions. Cigs are expected to continue to improve slightly ahead of the showers and thunderstorms later today. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty on timing. This package includes the most likely onset of showers, but it is not absolute. When showers begin, expect some to bring severe hazards. Rain should end early tomorrow morning, followed by lowering cigs as we approach sunrise. Winds should shift southeasterly and weaken towards the end of the period. Fog development is unexpected tomorrow, but that could change in later packages. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Spotter activation will likely be needed on this afternoon into late tonight, and may be necessary at times during this weekend.

/20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 66 87 67 88 / 70 10 60 30 MLU 64 86 66 86 / 70 30 50 50 DEQ 59 81 61 81 / 50 20 80 40 TXK 64 84 66 84 / 70 20 80 40 ELD 60 81 61 83 / 70 20 70 40 TYR 68 88 69 88 / 60 10 40 10 GGG 66 88 67 88 / 70 10 50 20 LFK 69 89 69 90 / 40 10 20 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.