textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Slightly cooler conditions with continued unsettled weather in the form of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist for the next 24 hrs (through the remainder of the weekend).

- A warming trend with another prolonged period of rain-free days begins Monday and will persist through all of the upcoming new work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The early afternoon sfc theta-e analysis indicates that the weak cool front has slipped S to near the SE TX coast into Acadiana country of S LA, although the actual bndry itself is hard to discern as sfc winds are consistently NE N of the weak sfc low over the SW Gulf. Meanwhile, the latest water vapor imagery indicates weak troughing aloft evident from Srn NM/Far W TX extending NE through the Big Country into Wrn OK, with weak ripples in the flow pattern evident over WCntrl TX which has contributed to enough large scale ascent for bands of convection from the Big Bend Area through NCntrl and NE TX/SE OK. One such band has been persistent for much of the morning through early afternoon over ECntrl TX along and just W of the WFO FWD/SHV CWA border, with 1-3 inches of rain measured, with an isolated higher total of 5.54 inches measured by the Trinidad HADS in SW Henderson County in the last 12 hrs. An MCV has recently developed within this zone of convection, with the weak NE steering currents that may result in some of this convection containing heavy rainfall drifting slowly E into portions of Smith and Wood Counties this afternoon before gradually weakening late in the day. Thus, a localized flood threat can not be ruled out for this area this afternoon given that 1.5-2+ inches has fallen across this area in the last 48 hrs.

Farther SE, watching bands of convection moving ashore the SCntrl and SE LA and Srn MS coasts, along the leading edge of an inverted H925-850 trough associated with a broad area of low pressure over the SW Gulf. As this low drifts W across the SW Gulf, the inward advance of the attendant low level inverted trough should allow for the scattered convection to gradually advance farther WNW into Cntrl LA late this afternoon, especially as the short term progs suggest that the inverted H950 trough becomes stationary from N of LCH to near AEX this evening. The various hi-res progs suggest that convection may become focused along this bndry this evening before gradually weakening late, with additional scattered convection possible late farther N from portions of E TX into NW LA/Srn AR in VC of the weak upper trough axis. This convection may linger through Sunday morning, before a deeper wedge of drier air begins to mix S during the afternoon into Sunday night and quickly begins to taper the remaining -SHRA from N to S. Regardless, should see another day or below normal temps under considerable cloudiness.

Drier air should finally begin to work its way S into the region Sunday night as NW flow aloft allows the deeper post-frontal dry air to deepen/spill SE ahead of upper ridging over the Desert SW. Aside from a weak diurnal cu field over portions of N LA/E TX Monday, strong insolation will develop, thus yielding a warming trend with daytime temps returning closer to normal. Humidity levels will be more comfortable as well as dewpoints mix down into the 50s, setting the stage for cooler, more pleasant mornings Tuesday through the remainder of the work week. However, the warming trend especially in regards to afternoon temps will commence for mid and late week, with above normal temps returning as they approach/exceed 90 degrees once again. Unfortunately, the very warm temps/low RH's will result in the drying of soils from areas that did manage to receive rain in the last couple of days, thus maintaining drought conditions through the foreseeable future. It remains to be seen as to whether a weak low/trough that may cut off over TX for late week will be able to garner enough moisture for the return of scattered convection, but confidence remains low attm given the large spread amongst the various guidance.

15

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

IFR/MVFR cigs expected across area terminals from tonight through mid-morning Sunday with conditions improving to VFR during the afternoon. Northeast winds 5-10 knots expected through the period with the lower values during the overnight hours. Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible overnight across most terminal sites with conditions improving after 04/14Z. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 70 82 65 86 / 40 40 10 0 MLU 71 82 64 86 / 40 50 10 0 DEQ 65 85 57 85 / 30 10 0 0 TXK 66 82 60 84 / 30 20 0 0 ELD 67 82 58 86 / 30 30 10 0 TYR 68 81 64 85 / 40 30 10 0 GGG 68 82 62 85 / 40 40 10 0 LFK 72 81 67 86 / 30 40 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.