textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 120 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the rest of this week, returning next week.

- Thunderstorms, including some severe thunderstorms could develop by Valentine's Day Saturday afternoon.

- Showers and thunderstorms will deliver enough moisture for a heavy rain threat on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Ridging continues apace for the Four State Region, maintaining above-average temperatures ahead of the next storm system. This will gradually prime the atmosphere with some ingredients for the coming trough that will wrap around to dig across the Baja California coastline and eject into West Texas by Friday afternoon. As it does so, surface winds will gradually return from the south during the day on Friday. Near-term model guidance is continuing its agreement on trough evolutions through the day on Friday, trending towards a slightly more zonal ejection profile across East Texas. While the setup for a more bonafide severe weather environment remains out of reach, ingredients that are present do favor a high-shear, low-CAPE event after midday Saturday. Mid-level lapse rates will remain mostly below -8C/km, while SFC-1km shear around 30-40kts (the most conducive/favorably high amount for this round of storms). Severe thunderstorm impacts that are expected include: Damaging winds (most likely), large hail (Quarter-size), and tornadoes (can't be ruled out with high shear). Post-frontal conditions going into next week will remain dry with southerly surface winds maintaining above average temperatures. Some long-range guidance suggests temperature maximums reaching into the lower 80s by the middle of next week. /16/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 425 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions currently prevailing across all terminal locations attm and that should continue through at least the evening hours. Guidance is all over the place as to the possibility of fog developing overnight and spreading northward, possibly impacting the LFK terminal and maybe even the I-20 terminals across at least NE TX. For now, the LFK terminal dropping to 1 mile after midnight with ceilings near 3hdft with the TYR/GGG terminals VSBYs falling to 3 miles with MVFR ceilings and will adjust if necessary for the 06z TAF package. Any VSBY and/or ceilings restrictions should give way by mid to late morning with VFR conditions returning to our airspace. There should be a low cu field however during the day, especially across our western airspace with increasing mid and high level cloud cover through the day as well. Look for mostly light winds overnight with east to southeast winds on Friday with speeds generally under 10kts.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1231 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 53 79 60 73 / 0 10 10 80 MLU 50 77 58 76 / 0 0 10 50 DEQ 43 72 54 66 / 0 20 50 100 TXK 49 76 60 71 / 0 20 30 90 ELD 45 75 56 72 / 0 10 20 70 TYR 55 80 61 71 / 0 20 20 100 GGG 51 79 59 71 / 0 20 20 90 LFK 55 79 59 73 / 0 10 10 90

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.