textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Low to very low rain chances are expected in most locations through the next week. Significant wetting rains are not expected.

- The best rain chances, relatively speaking, should remain south of Interstate 20 as a tropical disturbance moves west along the Gulf Coast and eventually inland later in the week.

- Heat index values should remain below advisory criteria for Sunday, but increasing dewpoints will mean higher heat index values. Heat headlines are likely for most of the area for much of the next week beginning on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A few isolated showers are trying to develop across Central Louisiana in the vicinity of a diffuse frontal boundary, and additional development may occur until diurnal instability begins to diminish later this evening. Best chances for convection late this afternoon and into this evening will be across East Texas and Louisiana south of Interstate 20. This region is marked by a fairly substantial cu field on visible satellite. Temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 90s in some portions of East Texas, and some of these locations could be very close to 100 degrees F before the day is over. However, dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s are keeping heat index values just barely warmer than ambient air temperatures. On the flip side, the large dewpoint depressions and dry low-level atmosphere support a threat of gusty straight-line winds form any stronger convection that develops today. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.

The center of a broad upper level ridge currently over New Mexico will move over Oklahoma and Arkansas on Sunday. Increased subsidence due to the proximity of the ridge's center should keep rain chances extremely low on Sunday. Most of the model guidance was free of any precip. The notable exception was the HRRR, which suggests widely scattered and spotty coverage across much of the area. Given the presence of the upper ridge, the lack of any vort max or surface boundary to help initiate convection, current thinking is that the HRRR is too aggressive. Therefore, this forecast sides with the general model consensus of keep rain chances below mentionable levels for Sunday. Sunday should also be our hottest day this week, with most locations near or slightly over the century mark. On the flip side, low dewpoints and relative humidity levels should keep heat index values just below advisory criteria.

Unfortunately, heat headlines are likely to return during the upcoming work week for most locations, maybe as early as Monday. Daytime high temperatures may drop by a few degrees initially as Gulf moisture gradually increases across the area. Therefore, the drop in temperatures will be offset by the increase in humidity bringing those heat index values above 105 degrees for much of the area Monday and continuing into next weekend. In addition, daytime high temperatures are expected to start climbing back into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees during the latter half of the work week.

A tropical disturbance currently near the Florida Panhandle will gradually drift westward this week along the Gulf Coast. This wave will give us some of the only rain chances will have this week. However, even these low-end chances should remain confined Deep East Texas eastward into Central Louisiana, mainly south of a line from Jacksonville TX to Columbia LA. Significant wetting rains are not anticipated. This will likely result in a worsening of drought conditions.

/Nuttall/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

For the 29/18Z TAF update, another round of VFR vis/cigs are likely with light surface winds gaining a southerly component with speeds near 5-10 kts. Ridging aloft will maintain this pattern well beyond the end of the period. /16/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

/09/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 97 71 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 98 67 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 98 71 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 97 69 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 99 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 100 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 98 75 99 74 / 10 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.