textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Wetting rains will continue through Saturday, with the best rain chances (40%-60%) lingering mostly across Deep East Texas into Louisiana.

- Lightning and isolated street flooding can't be ruled out as impacts from the strongest thunderstorms south of I-20.

- Drier air will become warmer and cooler more efficiently later next week with some temperature maximums/minimums in the lower 90s/lower 60s respectively.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A wet pattern continues for the Four State Region as troughing aloft and a weak frontal boundary draped near the surface maintains some convective potential into Sunday before tapering off into early next week. High-resolution guidance suggests an additional trough axis shifting onshore during this time to drive the last predominant batch of showers and thunderstorms to develop mostly across Deep East Texas into Louisiana. Medium-range guidance suggests a pause of the wet weather pattern by Monday into the middle of next week as post-frontal ridging and a dry, quasi-zonal to northwesterly flow aloft sets back in. This drier air will boost efficient heating/cooling (dew points in the 50s) for a warming trend with above average temperature maximums in the lower 90s. A preview of regular Fall weather still continues at night with temperature minimums in the lower 60s/upper 50s later next week. Remaining WPC QPF values range at 0.25-0.75 inches in an increasing gradient south of I-20 as a result of this week's expected activity. /16/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A mix of MVFR and mostly IFR ceilings currently prevailing, along with light rain across our NE TX terminals and in the vicinity of the TXK and SHV terminals while IFR ceilings extend as far east as our ELD and MLU terminals. These conditions will be slow to improve this morning, but think those IFR ceilings will at least climb to MVFR heights by late morning into the afternoon hours. Thinking is that the large area of light rain and showers across NE TX will gradually taper off with more in the way of showers and perhaps, scattered thunderstorms will build north and west from Central LA by afternoon but especially this evening. This activity could push as far west and north as the LFK/SHV and ELD terminals before we lose coverage and intensity near or shortly after midnight. If we do see any VFR ceilings, they will quickly return to at least MVFR or IFR ceilings after midnight. Winds will be mostly from the northeast with speeds near 10kts with some higher gusts.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 82 67 83 65 / 20 20 20 0 MLU 88 67 82 64 / 30 40 40 0 DEQ 77 59 85 56 / 20 20 10 0 TXK 77 62 83 59 / 30 10 10 0 ELD 82 60 84 58 / 20 20 20 0 TYR 78 67 83 65 / 50 10 10 0 GGG 81 64 85 63 / 40 20 10 0 LFK 86 68 83 67 / 30 30 30 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.