textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected througout the first half of the week. Localized flooding may occur for portions of East Texas along and south of I-20.

- Hotter and drier conditions expected to return by the week. These hotter temperatures could pose a heat threat as heat indices rise areawide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Ongoing infrared and water vapor imagery reveal ongoing convection across portions of Deep East Texas into South-Central Louisiana and a East-West oriented quasi-stationary surface front draped across the northern portion of the ArkLaTex. As this stationary boundary slowly meanders its way throughout the area, locations to the south of the front can expect greater chances for showers and thunderstorms. The latest guidance has this boundary positioning itself in between I-20 and I-30 later during the day today.

WPC has placed areas to the south of I-20 in East Texas and in west central Louisiana under a slight risk of excessive rainfall today as storm motions associated with these impulse showers and thunderstorms are expected to be slow as a result of limited upper level steering. This could lead to localized heavy rainfall and flooding in excess of 2 inches, with flash flood warnings already having to be issued early this morning in portions of East Texas. Remember, if water covers the roadway, turn around, don't drown.

Zooming out, all of this convection is tied to lift from positive vorticity advection from a shortwave trough situated over the Tennessee River Valley. This trough is progged to become cut off from the jet stream overnight, into tomorrow morning and retrograde westward over the Southern US. As this cutoff low continues to be the greatest upper level influence over the ArkLaTex activity is expected to continue to be widespread, with the frontal boundary lifting just far enough to bring areas along and North of I-30 to bring our northern most counties some showers and thunderstorms. QPF areawide over the next three days is expected to be in the 1-3 inch range, with locally heavier accumulations possible, mainly in central Louisiana and portions of East Texas, south of I-20. All of this rain will help to keep our daily highs in the upper 80s, low 90s through the middle of the week. Overnight lows will continue to remain in the 70s.

Progressing into the latter half of the workweek into the weekend, we start to see a return and then normalize the hot and dry conditions seen late last week as an upper level high currently over the Northern Great Plains is steered towards the ArkLaTex. As temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s it is always good to remember at this time of year, our heat indices rise even higher and could pose a threat as future forecasts are made. Current ensembles of long range models continue to exude greater confidence that we will remain under ridging through the weekend, allowing for temps to rise up into the mid to high 90s area wide. Unsurprisingly, lows are still expected to remain in the 70s as surface winds continue to feed us all that gulf moisture.

/Ozimek/Thorne/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, weak fropa will bring restrictions by daybreak. Upper low ovhd w/ sfc front over SE OK to KTXK to near KMLU with NE winds only 5KTS, but Tds are lowering. Outflow boundary from KTYR to KAEX with abundant convection along and S. Add'l shwrs and some isold TS will crop up N of I-20 but remain SCT ending by sunset. Weak front may trigger some middeck showers toward dawn, but IFR/MVFR cigs/vsby are expected 09-15Z, then back to VFR w/ more SCT convection as front lifts back N and upper low edges over MS/AL. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 107 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested across the region, particularly for flooding concerns in deep east Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

/26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 72 87 72 89 / 20 40 10 30 MLU 73 90 72 90 / 40 40 20 40 DEQ 70 90 70 87 / 10 10 20 70 TXK 72 91 72 90 / 10 20 20 60 ELD 70 89 70 87 / 30 30 30 60 TYR 72 88 71 89 / 30 60 10 30 GGG 71 87 70 89 / 20 50 10 30 LFK 70 84 70 89 / 50 80 30 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.