textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Weak upper ridging has resulted in drier conditions today, but a few diurnally driven showers or a stray thunderstorm remain possible this afternoon into the early evening hours.

- An active weather period is expected through this weekend into early next week, including daily severe weather chances across much of the region from late Friday through Monday.

- Uncertainty exists for the middle of next week, but there is the potential for an active southwesterly flow pattern to develop, keeping rain chances across the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Weak upper ridging has settle across the region, which has resulted in much drier conditions today. However, we continue to get a surge of low level moisture into the region, which has kept low clouds in place through this afternoon. Pwat values on the 18z sounding was near 1.2 inches, which is around the 75th percentile for this time of the year, and dew points have climbed into the mid to upper 60s. Although conditions are much drier today, this influx of moisture, combined with daytime heating, has yielded some isolated showers over the past couple of hours. Current thinking is that this activity should remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, and should be confined mostly to our Louisiana zones and portions of adjacent Southern Arkansas and East Texas near the Louisiana border. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating.

As we move into the overnight period, we will see our next weather system shaping up. A cold front will push southward across the Plains towards our region. A line of convection is expected to develop along the front, but short-term progs continue to suggest it will weaken as it arrives on our door steps. Some of this activity may hold on long enough to get into our zones along and north of I-30 near daybreak, so decided to keep slight to chance POPs in those areas for this time period. The front is expected to stall across extreme Northeast Texas eastward to around the Arkansas/Louisiana border. With daytime heating and an unstable airmass of up to 3000 J/kg in place, additional convection is expected to develop along the stalled boundary during the afternoon hours. Good deep layer shear should support good organized convection. All modes of severe weather will be in play as these storms shift southward across the area through the evening and predawn hours on Saturday morning. Despite the southward progression of the precipitation, the front is expected to remain stalled around the same aforementioned area on Saturday, where additional convection and severe weather will be possible, especially along and north of Interstate 20. The front is forecast to lift back northward as a warm front Saturday evening into Sunday. But, progs are developing another MCS that would push downstream back into our forecast area late Saturday into early Sunday morning, bringing another round of possible severe weather.

We may see a brief quiet period Sunday afternoon, but strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again on Monday as a cold front moves across the area. Beyond Monday is where a bit more uncertainty exists. Long-term models are trying to build an upper ridge into the area, but the location of the ridge will play a vital role in our weather set-up. If the center of the ridge settles across the Central Gulf, it would essentially put our forecast zones in a potentially active southwest flow pattern, with rain chances remaining across the region. However, if the ridge is farther north, we would see drier conditions over the area. With all of the weather scenarios over the next several days, please continue to monitor the forecast for updates. /20/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

For the 24/00z TAF update...VFR conditions currently prevail but will gradually drop to MVFR ceilings as some lower clouds develop tonight for all terminals. We could see a few IFR CIGs as well, but I only had enough confidence to mention this for KLFK and KGGG with KTYR being close. Otherwise, I still have some mention of VCSH and VCTS Friday morning into the afternoon. There could be some gusty winds towards the end of this period, but will generally remain below 20 kts. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Spotter activation is expected on Friday, and will likely be needed through the first portion of next week. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 69 84 65 86 / 10 40 70 20 MLU 65 85 65 87 / 0 60 80 30 DEQ 65 78 60 80 / 30 70 50 20 TXK 69 82 64 83 / 20 70 70 20 ELD 65 80 61 82 / 10 70 80 20 TYR 70 85 67 87 / 10 20 40 10 GGG 68 85 66 86 / 10 30 50 10 LFK 67 86 67 88 / 0 20 30 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.