textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Although the heat and humidity of early July will persist, our daily rain chances look to continue through at least Tuesday with a low-end severe risk over much of the region today.

- An induced trough axis will hold serve for a few more days as we remain flanked by a ridge to our east and west, keeping the more intense summer heat at bay at least temporarily.

- Forecast confidence continues to increase that upper ridging will begin to exert greater influence across our region late next week, which would mean a trend toward hotter and drier conditions once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Mother Nature delivered some impressive fireworks of her own over the Independence Day holiday, and the longwave pattern will favor a continuation of scattered showers and thunderstorms once again today and into the first half of next week. In fact, the next wave of convection is ongoing toward the I-30 corridor where a decaying MCS continues to slowly advance SE of the Red River. Although wind speeds have dropped off considerably from early this evening when it was still upstream over parts of central and eastern Oklahoma, frequent to near continuous lightning is still accompanying these storms. However, do expect the weakening trend to continue as the convection moves south of I-30 through the pre-dawn hours before largely diminishing toward daybreak.

In its wake, look for residual outflow boundaries to set up and serve as a focus for renewed convection later on today as strong sfc heating helps to further destabilize the atmosphere and high temperatures surge back into the lower and mid 90s once again. For this reason, SPC has highlighted the vast majority of our region in a Marginal Risk for severe weather later today. The threat of damaging wind gusts will be primary with this low-end risk in any storms that develop through this evening and potentially overnight if another MCS is able to manifest farther upstream. In addition, can't rule out some small hail as well but it should be much more isolated and confined to the most intense storms.

Heading into next week, our region will effectively remain in an area of induced troughing between a ridge axis just off the SE coast over the Atlantic and a stronger one building to the west. Given this pattern, we should expect more scattered convection and largely diurnally driven through Tuesday before the ridge out west begins to expand closer to our region by mid to late week. In this scenario, our rain chances will be greatly diminished while summer heat really ramps up with potentially our hottest temperatures so far this summer.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Outflow boundary from previous convection has now moved south of the I-20 Corridor and was located from near LFK to near HEX and continues to make quick progress south and east. A broken line of convection was observed along and in the wake of this boundary with greater coverage across East Central and Northeast Louisiana to begin the 12z TAF period. Prevailed -TSRA at the MLU terminal for the first couple hours of the TAF period with VCTS at LFK for the same period of time. Otherwise, believe any new convection will have to await daytime heating today. Again, based the 12z TAF package on the latest HREF output which has had a far superior handle on current and past trends. Reintroduced VCTS at all terminals beginning at 17z and continued through 01-02z this evening. There are some indications we could see some nocturnal convection again overnight tonight near the I-20 Corridor confidence and/or lack of storm coverage will preclude any mention in this TAF package for now. Look for mostly variable winds today with speeds generally under 10kts except stronger and gusty near thunderstorms.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Although spotter activation is not expected today, spotter reports may be needed once again with the threat of isolated severe storms continuing through at least this evening if not into the overnight hours.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 94 76 93 75 / 50 40 30 40 MLU 94 75 93 75 / 40 50 40 40 DEQ 92 71 92 71 / 40 20 20 20 TXK 95 74 94 74 / 50 30 20 30 ELD 92 72 91 72 / 40 40 20 20 TYR 97 77 96 76 / 40 20 30 30 GGG 96 76 95 75 / 50 30 30 40 LFK 96 77 95 76 / 20 20 40 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.