textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Following a welcome reprieve of scattered rains and cooler temperatures Friday, a return to hot, humid, and mostly dry conditions are expected today, with heat indices ranging from 100-105 degrees.

- Showers and thunderstorms still look to increase through the day Sunday along/ahead of a slow moving cool front, with periods of much needed rainfall with the potential for localized flooding expected to linger through Monday before gradually diminishing from north to south Monday night and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The last of the isolated convection continues to wind down near GGG in E TX early this morning, with the scattered convection able to hang tough longer given the higher MLCapes of 1500-2000 J/kg and PW's near 2 inches along a northward moving seabreeze bndry that lifted north from SE TX/SW LA earlier Friday evening. While the early morning upper air analysis indicates a residual weak shear axis that still lingers from the Gulf Coast states W into NCntrl LA/E TX, broad flat ridging aloft extending from Nrn Old MX across TX and the Gulf Coast will reassert its dominance over the region today once this shear axis washes out later this morning, with strong subsidence resulting in the return to hot and humid conditions areawide, as temps climb into the mid 90s across most areas. Should see a little mixing of dewpoints especially during the afternoon, although peak heat indices may still be marginal for Heat Advisory criteria as they near 105 degrees in some areas, but not enough to warrant the issuance of an Advisory attm. There may be enough of a weak seabreeze though from the SE TX/S LA coast later today that may penetrate inland into portions of Deep E TX/Cntrl LA this afternoon, but have kept silent pops going for these areas as later shifts can monitor the potential for any development and insert slight chance pops as needed.

Otherwise, the short term forecast remains focused on the increase in convection expected through the day Sunday, once weak ripples in the flow aloft begin to traverse ESE along the base of a developing broad longwave trough from the Plains across the Midwest and OH Valley through Monday. This gradual troughing regime will help to initiate convection development late Saturday afternoon/early evening along a weak attendant cool front from the TX Panhandle into Wrn/Nrn OK, which will act to reinforce the convection SE through OK into Nrn AR late Saturday night and possibly into the Nrn zones of McCurtain County OK and the Nrn sections of SW AR prior to daybreak Sunday. While the convection will remain strongest Saturday evening over NCntrl/NE OK into Nrn AR, gradual weakening is expected overnight as the bndry lyr cools and stabilizes, although high PW's near 2 inches extending from NE TX into Ern OK/Wrn AR alongside persistent low level convergence along the leading edge of these storms may maintain the threat for gusty winds and heavy rain as the convection approaches the Nrn zones prior to daybreak. The various CAMs suggest that this potential MCS should weaken as it moves into NE TX/Srn AR Sunday morning, but could focus a residual mesoscale bndry(s) over the region which would allow for additional scattered convection development later in the day with the onset of diurnal heating/increased instability. Given this focus, and the likely enhanced instability and very moist PW's in place, the potential for wet microbursts will exist especially over E TX/N LA/Srn AR Sunday afternoon, coinciding with SPC's Day 2 Marginal Risk in place for these areas.

Did maintain likely pops Sunday north of I-20, with mid/high chance pops farther S given the uncertainty of the earlier potential MCS bndry placement as well as the potential interaction for a weak seabreeze developing later in the day. Once convection is able to deepen some late in the day and especially during the evening Sunday once additional forcing aloft arrives from the Red River Valley along the base of the developing trough, the weak sfc front looks to sharpen enough Sunday night as it is reinforced into E TX/N LA, and remains nearly stationary through the day Monday, thus focusing more widespread convection through this time over much of the region. The advection of tropical moisture over Nrn Old MX along the base of the developing trough axis should help to enhance rainfall efficiency Sunday night through much of Monday over much of the region along the front. As of now, QPF's of 1-3+ inches are expected, although isolated higher amounts in excess of 4-5+ inches can not be ruled out especially where locally enhanced banding/training is able to develop especially through the day Monday. A localized flood threat will be possible, but continued dry antecedent soil moisture conditions and low streamflows on area rivers and bayous should be able to take these rains before gradually tapering off from NW to SE Monday night/Tuesday once drier air is able to entrain SE with the primary upper trough passage.

While the rains will bring an additional reprieve in cooler temps for the area to start the first half of the new work week, stronger insolation and a deeper SSWrly low level flow in wake of the departing trough axis will yield a return to near/above normal temps and the prospects of mainly afternoon/evening seabreeze convection Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS ensembles have trended closer to the ECMWF though regarding a potential weakness aloft that may traverse NE along the TX coast Thursday/Friday, which could enhance additional convection coverage and the potential for heavy rain late next week for portions of our region. But prefer to see more continuity with later model runs before highlighting this next potential threat.

15

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Tempo MVFR ceilings across E TX terminals to improve to VFR by 13/15Z with VFR conditions prevailing areawide thereafter. Southwest winds to become south at 5 to 10 knots today and remain elevated up to 10 knots across most sites through the overnight hours. The exception, however, could be LFK where winds are expected to become light and variable. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings again possible overnight across E TX terminals. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 95 77 92 72 / 0 0 50 90 MLU 95 77 94 73 / 0 0 50 90 DEQ 93 74 84 67 / 10 40 70 80 TXK 97 78 89 69 / 10 10 60 90 ELD 94 76 89 68 / 10 0 50 90 TYR 95 78 94 72 / 0 0 50 90 GGG 95 76 93 72 / 0 0 50 90 LFK 94 76 93 74 / 10 10 50 80

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.