textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Little if any rainfall expected today and Monday as the upper ridge moves into the Mid-South with high temperatures ranging from 100 to 105 and heat stress mainly remaining below heat advisory thresholds. - Some rain chances will be returning this week, mainly south of I-20 as tropical waves move west along the Gulf Coast, also adding humidity and potential for heat advisory conditions returning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Temperatures are running similar, but perhaps slightly warmer, in many areas today compared to yesterday at early afternoon. A minor low leverage convergence axis across eastern zones (south-central AR / north-central LA / Central LA) is enhancing diurnal cumulus development there and may spark a stray and brief shower, or very isolated thunderstorm, this afternoon, although chances of rain at any location are still too low to mention in the official forecast. Expect heat index values peaking not too far above ambient air temperatures in most areas today, meaning peak heat index values ranging from 100 to 105 degrees, which is just a bit shy of Heat Advisory criteria. Expect stray showers, if any, to diminish quickly by early this evening with a dry and warm night.

Starting tomorrow, the tropical disturbance trying to weakly organize off the SE LA coast will have more of an influence on our weather, at least south of I-20. The NHC only maintains a 30% chance of this system achieving Tropical Cyclone status as it likely pushes eastward toward and into the SE TX coast over the next 2 to 3 days. Rain chances tied to this disturbance should primarily remain toward the coast and south of our area tomorrow, although afternoon showers across Central LA cannot be totally ruled out. That said, expect low level moisture to be subtly increasing tomorrow with this trend continuing into Tuesday. This will, in turn, increase humidity values over the course of the next two days, meaning heat index values will trend more than slightly higher than ambient air temperatures. This will be balanced by increasing diurnal cloud cover, which may continue to keep us from needing a Heat Advisory. But reaching criteria cannot be ruled out in some areas over the course of the next few days and we will make decisions on whether or not to hoist those products on a day by day basis. The good news is that the increasing moisture related to tropical disturbance will have a better chance to induce afternoon and early evening showers and storms south of I-20 by Tuesday - although the potential for significant rainfall (> 0.25 inches) is really just limited to far southern zones of Deep East TX and Central LA.

Any increased rain chances in our area directly related to the aforementioned tropical disturbance on Wednesday should mainly be limited to Deep East Texas, although southerly winds will be contributing to a deep moisture profile conducive for at least isolated afternoon and early evening across areas along and south of I-20. The increased cloud cover should keep most high temperatures shy of 100 degrees with heat indices at least in the 100 to 105 degree range. The upper ridge repositioning north of our area, combined with the higher moisture content of the atmosphere, should make for somewhat similar days the rest of the work week, meaning 10 to 30 percent afternoon and early evening rain chances with heat stress near to slightly below Heat Advisory criteria.

As always, there is more uncertainty at the tail end of the forecast period, but there is some potential from upper level northerly flow on the east or southeast side of the upper high. This may open the door to a stormier pattern for next weekend with backdooring boundaries trying to approach from the NE. But again, there is just one scenario and the latest machine learning guidance does not yet suggest an organized severe weather threat. /50/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

For the 30/18Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are once again expected to prevail through the period. Ridging will continue across the airspace, maintaining light and variable winds before regaining some speeds near 5 kts and an easterly component by the end of the period. /16/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 76 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 75 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 10 DEQ 71 100 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 75 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 75 100 76 98 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 74 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 74 99 75 96 / 0 0 0 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.