textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- An unsettled and active weather pattern will bring a risk of severe weather and flash flooding to the area periodically through at least mid-week

- Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall, damaging wind, hail, and potentially tornadoes.

- Drought conditions to persist across the local area despite periods of rainfall in the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning depicts a split-flow pattern over the PNW, where the southern stream features a closed low near the northern CA Coast and deep SW flow oriented to the east of its base extending from the desert SW into the Rockies and the Central and Southern Plains. Downstream from this flow then exists a ridge of high pressure across the SE and into the Mid Atlantic. Closer to the surface, low pressure exists across the Dakotas, with a cold front extending to the S/SW of its center across the Central Plains into the OK/TX panhandle region. A weak sfc trough then extends from this cold front across OK and into E TX, which may in part either be defined or enhanced by some residual outflow boundary from a decaying thunderstorm complex across C/E TX earlier this morning, per recent MRMS mosaic trends.

For this afternoon, a tricky forecast is in store with rain and thunderstorm trends likely to be largely dependent on the mesoscale environment. A decaying thunderstorm complex continues to move across E TX. The lack of appreciable sfc-based instability should keep this activity elevated with mainly a low-end threat for small hail and breezy wind. Hi-res CAM guidance is not picking up on this current activity very well and are suggestive of this complex's total decay. With increasing instability and continued moisture advection into the region, will watch this activity and its associated outflow boundaries/cold pool for possible reintensification into the afternoon. Aside from this activity, another area of convection is blossoming over S-C TX, evidenced in recent radar trends and cooling cloud tops in IR imagery. This activity, along with what appears to be possible redevelopment across E-C TX from a potential MCV are what current CAM guidance is suggestive could produce a severe weather threat across portions of the Four State Region this afternoon and evening. This convection would be aided by a glancing speed max in the H5 flow, along with decent flow in the 850-500mb layer to support enough shear for organized convection amidst 60s dewpoints lending to around 1000-1500J/kg MLCAPE during peak heating hours. Convection in this environment would be capable of mainly damaging wind, although a few rotating updrafts do not seem impossible. The primary severe weather threat is anticipated to be across E TX, although given the uncertainty explained above, NW LA, SE OK, and SW AR still have the potential to experience severe weather. Loss of daytime heating and any meager upper level support will result in a gradual demise of the severe threat into the overnight period. A flash flooding threat is also a concern this afternoon and evening, provided PW values around 1.5in +, especially in urban areas of E TX.

Heading into the work week, the closed low over N CA will begin to move into the Great Basin region, helping to maintain deep SW flow downstream across the Rockies and Great Plains. This will keep a moist and unstable airmass in place across the Four State region, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing on Monday. With the absence of any appreciable sfc or upper level forcing, do not expect this activity to be very organized or carry an appreciable severe weather threat. By Tuesday, progression of the Great Basin low will induce lee cyclogenesis up near KS, resulting in frontal development. While a few afternoon airmass thunderstorms could develop on Tuesday across the Four State Region, the severe weather threat will remain to the west closer to the lee cyclone and it associated frontal boundaries. It's even possible the CWA could stay dry Tuesday as a Gulf ridge attempts to nose into the area. By mid-week, the frontal boundary will approach the area, aided by a shortwave across the Southern Plains. Severe weather could be a concern along and ahead of the boundary provided that the Four State Region will remain in an unstable environment. This boundary appears to move thru the area slowly given that the parent low will be moving much farther north into the Great Lakes. This will make for unsettled weather through the end of the week, with the severe weather opportunity a bit less clear based on uncertainty of the movement and the strength of the front with time.

CK

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

For the 12/18Z TAF update, low VFR vis/cigs continue with VCTS/-SHRA through most of the period creating MVFR/IFR cigs after 13/06Z until 13/15Z. Southerly winds will prevail through the period at or near 10 kts. /16/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight over portions of East Texas, for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms as well as heavy rainfall which may produce localized flash flooding. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 67 84 67 86 / 60 40 0 0 MLU 67 87 64 88 / 30 30 0 0 DEQ 62 80 62 81 / 60 40 10 10 TXK 68 83 67 85 / 50 50 10 10 ELD 64 83 63 86 / 50 50 10 0 TYR 68 83 68 83 / 60 20 0 10 GGG 67 83 67 85 / 60 40 0 0 LFK 67 84 67 86 / 60 30 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.