textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- Warm up continues through the possibility of record high temperatures for some locations by the upcoming weekend. - Next cold front will impact our region late Sunday Night into Monday but the front should come in dry. - Dry is the key word to this forecast as wildfire probabilities will continue to increase through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Beautiful day across the Four State Region today as we have lost our morning mid-level cloud cover...allowing for a good warmup areawide. The warm up is on the heels of tightening pressure gradient across the Southern Plains, allowing for sustained SSW winds near 10 to 15kts with gusts near 25kts. Thankfully, dewpoints are increasing along with the ambient temperatures and while this will allow for somewhat higher afternoon humidity levels, the fire danger today will remain elevated from continued dry fuels across most of our region.

This warmup through the upcoming weekend will continue to be spurred southerly winds and an upper level ridge which currently is centered across the southwest Great Basin. This ridge will begin to slowly shift eastward and should have encompassed at least the western half of our region by this weekend. Deterministic low level thickness progs have responded to this approaching ridge by this weekend and therefore...so have maximum temperatures with temperatures near 90 by Friday across our western zones and from near 90 to the lower 90s Sat thru Sun. This could result in recored temperatures across at least the western half of our region if these forecast temperatures pan out. Thus we go from record cold temperatures surpassed for morning lows on the 17th of this month to likely record high temperatures just 4 to 5 days later...you have to love March across the ArkLaTex.

Looking beyond the weekend, there are some indications that we will be looking at another cold front beginning to push into our region Sunday Night into Monday but there is some disagreement with current progs on if this front will be able to push completely through our region or not. Weak shortwave energy rounding the top of the upstream ridge axis is what will be driving this cold front and while there is a little in the way of moisture return, it's not enough to support any rain chances for Sunday Night into Monday for now and this will continued to be watched closely through future forecast cycles. Depending on how far south that front makes it into our region on Monday, temperatures should begin rebounding again towards the end of the 7-day forecast with very little change in the upper level pattern across the Lower 48. This will result in a dry forecast which may hold true through the end of the month.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

For the 18/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail across our airspace as clouds will be limited to high cirrus and mid-level altocu increasing from the N/NW. Breezy S/SW winds this afternoon will persist through 19/00Z before dropping off to less than 10 kts this evening and overnight. Speeds will increase between 10-15 kts once again by 19/15Z as mixing becomes more pronounced, resulting in some gusts near 20 kts or slightly higher similar to this afternoon.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 51 81 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 48 79 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 44 81 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 51 82 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 47 79 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 51 83 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 49 82 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 49 79 54 84 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.