textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- The potential remains for at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon for Lower East Texas and North Louisiana.

- Much needed rainfall should continue to overspread the remainder of the region through the afternoon into tonight, although any flooding should remain minimal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

The midday radar analysis indicates a loosely organized MCS shifting ESE across Lower E TX into N LA, which has convectively reinforced a cold front SE to near a PSN, to GGG, to along the AR/LA border, to ELD line. The ongoing convection continues to outrun the 12Z progs, with the latest few hours of the HRRR initializing well with the frontal position and convection, which slides SE through Lower E TX and N LA through late afternoon, before exiting the region to the S by early evening. The convection still remains tame as of this writing, especially given that a large outflow bndry continues to outrun these storms, and 1-2mb/2hr pressure rises over N TX continues to maintain momentum to allow this bndry to continue sliding SE through much of the area. While the latest VAD still maintains a 25-30kt SWrly low level flow ahead of the line, these winds should continue to weaken through the afternoon, while the storms tap greater SBCapes of 1500-2000+ J/kg across areas generally S of I-20 in E TX/N LA. However, steep lapse rates are still noted over S and SE TX into WCntrl LA, which may enhance strengthening once max sfc based instability is realized. Should any threats materialize, damaging winds and hail are the main threats, although the larger hail threat should remain SW of the region in the stronger shear regime. Once again, the latest NBM pops are garbage with the ongoing/expected convection, and remains much too slow with the front, with pops based on the current trends as well as the HRRR and its progression of the front.

Did taper pops back considerably faster than the NBM this evening across the Nrn zones as drier air begins to deepen across across extreme NE TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR, but did maintain likely and categorical pops farther S this evening before scaling back pops down to chance after 06Z Sunday as what little overrunning/isentropic ascent weakens N of the exiting front. In the meantime, much needed rain is expected although amounts have been scaled back further to a half inch to an inch, with isolated higher amounts through late this evening. The cooler air behind the front us struggling to get through the Ouachitas of SE OK/Wrn AR, although a portion of this cooler air should eventually settle across the NW zones later today/tonight. This, combined with the erosion of the lower cigs, should result in the coolest readings here tonight, but did raise min temps slightly over the NBM given its tendency to struggle with the higher terrain. Otherwise, slightly cooler temps should spill SE with the fropa later today/this evening, with any lingering post-frontal -SHRA expected to diminish after daybreak Sunday.

A welcome reprieve of cooler temps are expected Sunday as the -SHRA diminishes, although this will be short-lived as the remnants of the old front return N Sunday night, before washing out Monday morning. Thus, warmer and more humid air will begin to return back N, setting the stage for much above normal temps to return to the region Monday. Various guidance suggests that a subtle shortwave will develop over the OK/TX Panhandles early Monday morning, and translate E across Nrn OK into the Ozarks through the day. This weakness may provide enough forcing for scattered convection development through the day, although disparities still exist amongst the guidance regarding the extent of development expected. For this reason, have scaled back pops to high chance, although this should diminish during the evening as this weakness shifts E of the MS River.

We will have to await the closed low that has developed just W of Baja this afternoon, as it sits and spins the next couple of days before eventually being picked up by the Nrn stream jet Monday. The GFS has trended closer to the ECMWF with the low opening up Tuesday as it traverses the Srn Plains, while enhancing a Srly LLJ while large scale forcing increases ahead of the approaching trough. Thus, organized convection should begin to increase Tuesday afternoon across the NW zones, before spreading E across the region late Tuesday night/Wednesday with the trough passage. Attm, a QLCS looks probable to move through the region, thus enhancing the potential for severe while also providing additional beneficial rains. Given that the QPF from the ongoing convection is progged to underperform given its SE progression, flooding should not be much of a concern with the rapid movement of this next round of storms, before cooler and drier conditions advect back into the region for late week.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

For the 07/12Z TAF period, convection continues to become more widespread across our airspace this afternoon along and ahead of a slow-moving cold front. The most concentrated convection is now south of I-30 and moving into the I-20 corridor. Therefore, have included VCTS/TSRA with the I-20 terminals through much of this afternoon along with KELD/KLFK. Meanwhile, KTXK will generally see a downward trend in convection as just some lingering SHRA will prevail this afternoon and any TSRA will be more isolated along I-30. As expected, cigs and vsbys have quickly dropped in areas with convection as MVFR conditions will largely dominate the TAF period this afternoon and evening before trending closer to IFR late tonight through Sunday morning. Winds will remain breezy and occasionally gusty as they veer N/NW with fropa as speeds range between 12-18 kts on average with higher gusts around 25-35 kts, especially invof convection.

/19/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon over portions of East Texas south of Interstate 20, as well as North Louisiana. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 83 60 74 63 / 90 80 30 20 MLU 84 64 73 63 / 90 80 30 10 DEQ 66 47 73 55 / 90 30 10 20 TXK 67 55 74 61 / 100 50 10 20 ELD 79 58 71 58 / 90 60 20 10 TYR 69 53 75 62 / 90 60 10 30 GGG 79 56 74 62 / 90 70 20 20 LFK 83 63 77 65 / 90 80 50 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.