textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- A humid airmass will result in showers and thunderstorms through mid-week, where brief torrential rain/flash flooding and gusty winds may occur.

- A strong cold front on Friday will bring much cooler and drier conditions to the area.

- A heightened wildfire threat will accompany the front Friday and the drier air through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a strong area of high pressure and ridging over the Deep South and into northeastern Mexico and the adjacent Gulf, while upstream of this feature, a longwave trough of low pressure extends from the West Coast across the Rockies and into the Central and Northern Plains, with a closed low located across the Great Basin region. Closer to the surface, high pressure encompasses much of the Southeastern US, Mid-Atlantic region, and OH and TN Valleys, with low pressure located across the Great Lakes and a quasi-stationary front extended from its southwest into the Midwest and Central Plains.

For the remainder of today, the above pattern would normally highlight a quiet weather-day, broadly speaking. However, several nuances are at play; the first being a very subtle vort max rounding the northwestern and northern periphery of the upper level ridge and the second being a surge of Gulf moisture along the western periphery of the surface high. While the upper level vort max is quite subtle, it likely will/already is contributing to some larger scale lift, and will only aid both daytime heating and this higher PWAT airmass in generating showers and thunderstorms through sunset this evening. Given the lack of shear today, along with meager mid and low level lapse rates, severe weather is not expected. That said, several stronger storms could materialize as MLCAPE values range from 1000-2000J/kg to produce small hail and gusty winds. Torrential downpours also appear favorable as PWAT values top 2 inches. This could result in a brief flash flood threat, especially given extremely dry soils and the potential for initial runoff as well as the usual urban flooding and ponding of water on roadways and in areas of poor drainage. Conditions will quiet down overnight with a humid airmass remaining in place and areas of fog developing (especially where rainfall was received).

Upper level high pressure will keep a firm hold overhead on Wednesday, while surface high pressure remains to the east, with the Four State Region on the western periphery. Given that this general pattern is essentially identical to Tuesday's, it seems reasonable to believe that showers and thunderstorms will develop again during the afternoon hours and dissipate around sunset. As a result of this thinking, rain chances were nudged upward in some areas, essentially where Gulf moisture is expected to round the sfc ridge generally west of I-49 and south of I-30. Torrential downpours appear the main concern again, along with some gusty winds.

The surface high attempts to slide back westward briefly on Thursday, enough so that its influence along the now-dampening upper level ridge can work together enough to largely prevent rain chances. As such, dewpoints will drop several degrees back into the upper 60s to around 70. While this will give min RH values a chance to slide down into the 30 percent range, light winds are expected to prevent a major fire weather concern, although this will be about to change.

On Friday, our first strong cold front of the season will push across the area. This will occur as a result of the closed upper low mentioned in the first paragraph migrates into the Central Great Plains and becomes absorbed into a strong belt of westerly flow within the polar jet across the Upper Midwest. A ~1040mb surface high will build in behind the front, causing a strong pressure gradient along the frontal boundary. Friday will therefore feature a stiff NW wind of 15-20 mph gusting to 30 mph. As dew points drop significantly into the 40s and 50s behind the front through the day, min RH values are expected to range from the 20 to 30 percent range. While it currently does not appear that Red Flag criteria will be met, it's not out of the realm of possibilities, especially if drought conditions are factored in. At the very least a Fire Danger Statement will be needed.

As the strong surface high then moderates some into Saturday and the front clears the area, the local area will experience the coolest temperatures of the fall season, with highs in the low to mid 70s and dewpoints in the 40s. While this will likely sound refreshing to many, unfortunately the fire weather conditions will worsen, with a stout pressure gradient still at play, resulting in breezy NE winds gusting 20-25 mph, especially south of I-20. Min RH values will then dip well into the 20 percent range. While winds ease on Sunday and seasonably moderate temperatures hang around, fire weather will still remain a concern.

Temperatures will quickly begin to moderate on Monday, with highs returning into the mid and upper 80s and dewpoints surging back towards 60.

Kovacik

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For the 13/18Z TAF Update...Moisture has increased significantly across the region today, with lower ceilings hanging on for most of the morning. Radar imagery is showing some very isolated showers across most of the region, with some stronger returns across portions of central Louisiana. For this reason I have introduced VCSH for all terminals through the next few hours. As we move further into the afternoon hours, I will keep mention of VCTS as some of this activity could develop some strikes. Going into the overnight hours, I have introduced some additional lower CIGs, down to MVFR for most terminals and a period of potentially IFR for KLFK with some mention of BR as well. Confidence is lower here, but as mentioned earlier, we did hold onto lower CIGs through most of the morning so I don't see any reason why we wouldn't do the same tonight. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 73 92 66 91 / 10 10 0 0 MLU 68 95 63 93 / 20 0 0 0 DEQ 71 93 64 91 / 10 30 10 0 TXK 73 93 66 91 / 10 20 10 0 ELD 71 94 64 93 / 10 10 0 0 TYR 75 92 68 90 / 10 20 0 0 GGG 73 93 66 91 / 10 20 0 0 LFK 72 92 64 90 / 10 10 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.