textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Upper trough moves ovhd today taking much of the showers and storms with it to our east by late in the day.

- In the wake of the upper trough, we will be looking at increasing upper ridging from the west.

- Upper ridging means drier weather through the work week with a warming trend as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Longwave trough currently setup across the Upper Red River Valley and will be moving into the Middle Red River Valley of SW AR, SE OK and NE TX by mid morning with the trough axis exiting our northeast zones by this evening. Through sunrise, not as concerned as we once were with the probability of widespread severe storms but upper forcing in advance of the trough should allow for plenty of showers and thunderstorm activity moving through our region over the next 12 to 18 hours before the precipitation begins to move to our east. Heavier rainfall amounts should be oriented near but especially south of the I-20 Corridor through late this afternoon.

Beyond Today, sfc ridge axis to move through our region during the day Tuesday but another weak frontal boundary may try to backdoor its way into our region during the day Wed which would allow for a return to northerly winds. A weak wind shift is about all this backdoor frontal boundary will do to our region as high temperatures by Wed into Thu will be near 90 degrees across most locations. The warmup will be due in part to upper ridging that is currently across the Desert Southwest with this feature moving into the Texas Hill Country by Tue Night/early Wed and into the Southern Plains by Thu/Thu Night.

Will be watching our next trough of low pressure quickly moving into the Intermountain West in the wake of the upper ridge axis by late in the work week. Latest GFS is much more vigorous with this trough by next weekend which would at the very least support a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the upcoming weekend while the ECMWF is supporting much more of an open wave trough which would not support much in the way of precipitation. Latest NBM output is mostly dry for Sat with only slight chance pops across portions of our region for Sunday which is a happy medium this far out in the forecast until the next trough evolution comes into better play.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

For the 11/06Z TAFs, CIGs have begun deteriorating at quiet terminals, reaching IFR and LIFR with periodic VSBY reductions. Where CIGs have not yet come down from MVFR, lowering is expected overnight towards daybreak. Showers and thunderstorms in deep east Texas will impact KLFK through the night, with possible spreading north and east towards dawn and into the daylight hours. Current timing projections recover CIGs to mVFR by midday, scattering out into the afternoon and remaining VFR through to the end of this forecast period. Light and variable winds will become northeast through the period, reaching maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 77 59 83 61/ 50 10 0 0 MLU 79 58 83 59/ 50 0 0 0 DEQ 79 51 81 55/ 20 0 0 0 TXK 79 55 83 60/ 20 0 0 0 ELD 78 53 83 55/ 30 0 0 0 TYR 76 59 81 62/ 40 0 0 0 GGG 76 59 82 61/ 50 0 0 0 LFK 78 62 84 64/ 60 10 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.