textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Weak frontal passage Thursday into Thursday Evening will bring with it a small chance of showers and thunderstorms across mainly South Central Arkansas into Northeast Louisiana.

- Weak disturbances in northwest flow aloft will result in small chances for showers and thunderstorms across our northern third beginning Saturday Night, continuing through Sunday Night.

- Better rain chances "may" return to the region by midweek next week with a series of upper level disturbances poised to eject out into the Great Plains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A weak surface trough remains draped across the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR attm, best indicated by east to northeast winds in the wake of this boundary and a slight reduction in temperature across our northern most zones. This boundary will remain stationary on Thursday before it's caught by our next weak cold front that will shove the boundary south and east, taking up residence near the I-20 Corridor by late this afternoon before continuing to push southeast through the remainder of our region this evening. There may be enough moisture and forcing in place along this cold front to generate a narrow line of showers and an isolated thunderstorm, mainly across NE LA by late this afternoon but more likely this evening.

Winds quickly return back to a southeast and southerly component for Saturday and with that will be a warmup with temperatures at least in the lower 80s across most locations Saturday and Sunday. While sfc winds return to a southerly direction for the upcoming weekend, looking aloft, our upper flow will remain from the WNW and weak disturbances in this flow may allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning Sat Night and continuing thru at least Sun Night across mainly our northern third.

Things begin to look a little interesting as we pivot out of the weekend and into the upcoming work week. WNW flow aloft will begin to transition to southwest flow aloft by mid week as a vigorous upper level trough becomes cutoff across the Four Corners Region of the Country with upper ridging across the SE CONUS. At this time, the upper ridge appears to remain in place long enough for this lead shortwave to eject out mainly northwest of our region but the trough quickly reloads by next Thu into Fri and this is where progs begin to diverge on the strength and positioning of the above mentioned upper ridge. The positioning of this ridge will have huge implications on rain chances by the middle and later half of next week. For now, NBM is highlighting chance pops across most of the region beginning Wed and continuing into Thu and given the uncertainties in the location of the above features, this is a pretty conservative route for the forecast to take for now.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

For the 26/12Z TAF period, MVFR cigs continue to expand across our airspace this morning with the region currently bisected by a weak cold front. This front will gradually shift SE through all of our terminals during this period with MVFR cigs lingering through the morning before gradually lifting and scattering out later this afternoon. Therefore, VFR conditions will eventually return later today with winds veering N/NE at around 5 kts or less through the latter half of the period. With the light wind speeds today and tonight, will have to monitor for patchy fog in addition to the lower cigs, especially this morning and have included some brief lower vsbys at KELD through mid to late morning.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Spotter activation is still not expected throughout this week. However, please continue to relay information on wildfire activity Four-State area wide, to help our first responders protect life and property.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 82 54 78 51 / 20 20 0 0 MLU 79 53 75 48 / 30 30 0 0 DEQ 78 44 75 44 / 0 10 0 0 TXK 80 50 77 50 / 10 10 0 0 ELD 78 48 75 45 / 20 10 0 0 TYR 83 53 80 54 / 0 10 0 0 GGG 83 52 79 51 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 81 56 80 54 / 10 10 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.