textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 12:42 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Additional shower and thunderstorm redevelopment and the threat for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is expected late tonight over these same areas, persisting through the afternoon Tuesday before diminishing from northwest to southeast during the afternoon.

- An additional threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding may rematerialize over portions of Deep East Texas and North Louisiana Thursday.

- Further rain could impact the area on Friday into Saturday, but there is still some uncertainty this far out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The stationary front has stalled around the I-20 corridor from northern Rusk Co, TX eastward. Areas along and south of this front have seen continuous rainfall this morning, with areas seeing close to 3 in/hour rain rates with some of these showers. The D1 ERO has been updated to include our southern zones in a moderate risk with this increase in heavy showers. It should be noted that this short-term concern is mainly due to the heavy rainfall rates as opposed to the total accumulations. Near-record PWATs have been observed and will lead to very efficient rain producers. Soils that are too dry can be somewhat hydrophobic and unable to quickly absorb heavy rain. This will lead to locally considerable flooding today. At the time of writing, a few LA mesonet sites have recorded almost 4 in of rain over the last few hours with more to come. There have also already been reports of stalled vehicles in flood waters. The longer this rain event continues, the more you will see concerns over flooding from training storms and saturated soils.

Showers are expected to continue south of I-30 overnight tonight and reintensify during the day tomorrow. The current D2 ERO has our forecast area in a slight risk, but could be upgraded to moderate based on the rainfall observations from today's rain. We may see a brief break in the rain on Wednesday for most of the region as the stationary boundary acting as a lifting mechanism will be able to move out of the region late Tuesday evening. NBM still has some PoPs along our southern and eastern boundaries during the day, but it shouldn't be enough for more flooding. The break in rain will allow temperatures in the northern half of the region to approach 90 again. Areas to the southeast are expected to stay in the mid to upper 80s with the rain and continued cloud cover.

Rain chances on Thursday are increasing due to the area of low pressure potentially moving in from the Gulf. The GFS is beginning to align more with the ECMWF on timing of the low pressure and increasing confidence of returning heavy rainfall. The D4 ERO already includes parts of north central LA in a moderate, with areas south of I-30 in a slight. Soils will be plenty saturated with days of heavy rainfall at that point, making widespread flooding a concern. Mid to long range models are suggesting that an upper-level low could move southeast through the Ark-La-Tx on Friday. This could bring even more rain to the region and extend the potential for flooding into the weekend. But there is still uncertainty on this, especially if the low pressure in the Gulf interacts with the larger upper-level flow differently than expected.

57

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For the 15/12Z TAF period, Convection is forecast to expand in coverage and intensity throughout the day across most terminal sites with the exception of TXK/ELD which can expect VCTS potential closer to 16/00Z. Low VFR and patches of MVFR cigs this morning will persist through the afternoon with some improvement to all VFR possible by 16/00Z. Ceilings forecast to again fall to MVFR overnight with convection gradually diminishing. Light southeast winds to prevail through much of the period. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Spotter activation may be needed Monday for rainfall and flood reports across portions of East Texas and North Louisiana. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 72 84 73 90 / 50 50 10 20 MLU 71 83 73 91 / 70 70 10 30 DEQ 68 88 70 91 / 10 10 10 0 TXK 69 90 72 94 / 20 20 0 0 ELD 68 85 71 91 / 40 30 10 10 TYR 72 87 73 91 / 30 30 0 0 GGG 72 86 73 91 / 50 40 0 10 LFK 72 82 73 90 / 80 80 10 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...None. TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ126-136>138-149>153- 165>167.