textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 127 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- The threat for heavy rainfall and flooding will persist today across portions of Deep East Texas and North Louisiana, although this threat will be lower than what was observed Monday.

- Hot and humid conditions will return Wednesday, although isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible mainly across Deep East Texas and North Louisiana.

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will return to portions of Deep East Texas and North Louisiana Thursday and Friday as a tropical disturbance riding northeast along the Texas coast will move across Southwest and Central Louisiana.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The early morning sfc analysis indicates that our stalled frontal bndry still lingers along the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA, with the mosaic radar imagery confirming the position of the front and its attendant H850 reflection with very patchy -RA development rotating cyclonically around the front/trough. Already starting to see more in the way of deeper -SHRA development occurring across portions of Cntrl LA S of the H850 trough supported by a deeper lyr of theta-e advection, which the various CAMs and 00Z progs continue to enhance/expand upon over the next several hours and after daybreak, before drier air aloft begins to entrain farther SE beneath a longwave trough now digging through the Upper Midwest, which will traverse the Great Lakes and OH valley later this afternoon/evening. Thus, agreement amongst the various CAMs and 00Z progs suggest that the heavy rain threat will shift a bit SE today than what was observed Monday, especially as the old front and attendant low level reflection washes out later this morning and is no longer a key player for focused banding/flash flooding. As a result, have trimmed back the NW fringes of the existing Flood Watch area, with its expiration time remaining at 00Z Wednesday as the convection will be diminishing from NW to SE by mid to late afternoon. Still can't rule out an additional 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts in excess of 3-4 inches over the Watch area today, before the flood threat ends by dark.

The region will be awaiting our next weather-maker currently developing over Deep S TX attm, which remains progged to drift NE along or just offshore the TX coast later today through Wednesday before moving near Sabine Pass into SW LA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Should the center of circulation move out over the warm Gulf waters, there would be a brief period for tropical development but regardless, the primary impacts will remain the threat for additional heavy rain and flash flooding as they move over saturated grounds from the 1-3 with isolated 6+ inches of rain that fell across portions of Deep E TX and N LA during the day Monday. Still could see some influence from this approaching system as early as Wednesday, with an enhanced seabreeze developing and spreading N across portions of E TX/N LA. Did expand slight/low chance pops a little farther N than the NBM to account for the increasing Srly low level flow which should allow for this more Nrly development, although the greater heavy rain development/flood threat will remain to our S over portions of SE TX/S LA. Should start to see convection increase over the SE zones Wednesday night and especially Thursday as the center of this disturbance moves farther inland across Srn and Cntrl LA, with the potential need for another Flood Watch for portions of our SE zones by this time, depending on the exact track. What is interesting though is the fact that the progs have a very tight gradient in QPF near and NW of the center of this area of vorticity, thus a more Ewd track would reduce the threat of heavy rain and flooding for our SE zones for late week (as suggested by the 00Z GFS and early 00Z ECMWF).

The track of the center will also dictate the extent of pops for Friday as well, especially as the 12Z ECMWF remains consistent with earlier runs in expanding upper ridging from the Srn Plains into the region/Lower MS Valley this weekend. There are some indications though that the ECMWF could be an outlier as the GFS has garnered support from the 00Z NAM/Canadian with a weak shortwave trough entering the Red River Valley early Friday morning and focus an increase in scattered convection through the day especially as this weakness aloft interacts with strong heating/instability and any residual mesoscale bndrys. The ridging though should eventually begin to build by the weekend, with above normal heat and high humidity from enhanced evapotranspiration rates from the wet grounds returning along with reduced afternoon convection. There is some hint though that the ridging may be dirty and flatten enough by early next week as additional perturbations aloft may drift E along the Red River Valley by early to mid week next week to focus more in the way of scattered convection.

15

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

For the 16/12Z TAF period, MVFR/IFR ceilings to improve through mid-morning with convection expected to develop across the I-20 terminals and LFK today. Convection to diminish by 17/00Z. MVFR/IFR ceilings forecast to return late this evening. Otherwise, light and variable winds to become southerly at 5 knots today and persist through the overnight hours. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 127 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Spotter activation may be needed later today for heavy rainfall and flood reports across portions of Deep East Texas and North Louisiana. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 86 74 91 77 / 40 10 20 10 MLU 85 72 91 76 / 60 10 20 30 DEQ 88 70 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 89 72 94 76 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 87 71 91 75 / 20 0 10 10 TYR 88 74 92 77 / 20 0 10 0 GGG 88 73 91 77 / 20 10 10 0 LFK 85 72 90 76 / 70 10 30 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ010>014-017>022.

OK...None. TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ152-153-165>167.