textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Hot, humid, and dry conditions will continue this afternoon, with above normal temperatures, humid, and dry conditions expected tonight.

- Above normal temperatures and humid conditions will persist through Tuesday, although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase each day across the region.

- An extended period of unsettled weather is expected throughout the remainder of the coming work week, characteristic of daily showers and thunderstorms, which look to shave afternoon temperatures back closer to if not below the daily norms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The early afternoon satellite and mosaic radar imagery indicates that the weak shortwave that has brought elevated cigs to the region and some sprinkles mainly to portions of Ern OK has quickly shifted into Cntrl AR, with much drier air aloft having quickly mixed E into E TX and much of N LA. All that remains attm is an extensive cu field that has developed in response to the deepening low level moisture that has spread N from the Gulf. Seeing some mixing of dewpoints this afternoon as readings have mixed out into the lower/mid 60s, but this will be the last of these "lower" dewpoints for a while as the bndry lyr moisture continues to deepen over the next 18-24 hrs and mixing of drier air aloft will be more limited.

This will be the result of a tightening pressure gradient that will eventually spread E from the Srn Plains into the Lower MS Valley, which will advect low status cigs in a bit sooner late this evening/overnight than what has been observed the last couple of mornings, with sfc winds maintaining a mixed air mass and hence, even warmer temps overnight/Sunday morning with readings hard pressed to fall to 70 degrees across E TX/SE OK/extreme SW AR/Wrn LA. The morning stratus shield should be a little slower to lift Sunday, but enough insolation should commence for another day of above normal temps as afternoon readings near 90 degrees. The tight pressure gradient will maintain breezy conditions once again, with the flow pattern transitioning to SW through the day ahead of a deepening upper trough that will traverse the Great Basin. The short term progs continue to suggest a weak perturbation aloft will lift NE through the area during the day, coinciding with with deepening theta-e advection which should enhance the development of isolated to widely scattered convection through the day. Have maintained slight chance pops Sunday morning for isolated -SHRA that the various hi-res progs suggest may develop early, before stronger heating/sfc instability coupled with the weakness aloft which should add to the coverage mainly over portions of N LA. Did bump up NBM temps another degree or so Sunday afternoon given the trend in recent days, while also retaining slight to chance pops Sunday night especially in VC of the I-30 corridor as the progs have keyed in on another weak ejecting shortwave trough that will traverse the region.

Despite an increasing Srly LLJ Sunday night, drier low level air will mix through the column, with any convection expected to remain weak with little if any QPF despite increasing ascent with this approaching trough. With the return of the deepening low level moisture profile Monday, additional weaknesses in the flow aloft should yield more in the way of isolated to widely scattered convection through the day aided by daytime heating. One specific impulse looks to lift NE through the area during the mid/late afternoon into the evening Monday, where low to mid chance pops were concentrated across much of NE TX/NW LA into SW AR/SE OK. The convection associated with this impulse should diminish late, as we await for the next impulse that will enhance convection development Tuesday afternoon/night. While isolated strong storms can't be ruled out should they be able to develop during the afternoon when instability has been maximized from heating (despite the weak thermodynamic environment), the potential for heavy rainfall will exist over the aforementioned areas at least through Tuesday evening, but should not be too much of a problem given the dry soils and low streamflow which has been the result of the ongoing long term drought.

The progs are also keying in on another shortwave impulse that will track through the region Wednesday/Wednesday night that should help focus additional more widespread convection over the area. Discrepancies increase amongst the various progs afterwards, but maintain SW flow and the unsettled weather pattern across the region through the remainder of the extended and beyond. But in any case, the increasing areas of convection each day from Wednesday and beyond should limit the extent of afternoon heating and result in near to slightly below normal temps, while also producing beneficial rains.

15

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

We are anticipating low clouds to be more of a problem across the Four State Region over the next 24 hours. Increasing low level moisture advection is expected to bring a MVFR cloud deck in from the south between roughly midnight and 6 AM, obviously affecting northern TAF sites (like TXK, ELD, and MLU) later than LFK. There is at least slight potential for a brief dip to IFR conditions at some sites in the 5 AM to 9 AM window, but confidence on achieving IFR conditions is currently too low to include with this TAF package. Ceilings should gradually lift at most sites from mid morning through midday tomorrow and VFR conditions are generally anticipated to return by early afternoon in most cases, although brkn cumulus from 3 to 5 KFT should continue through the afternoon tomorrow. In addition, some isolated showers (or maybe even a stray storm) could be in the cards from midday to afternoon tomorrow, but potential of impact at any TAF site is currently too low to include in this package. Otherwise, expect south to southeast surface winds to remain elevated in the 10 to 15 mph range overnight and pick up to a range of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts by early afternoon tomorrow. /50/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Sunday. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 72 89 75 90 / 0 20 20 30 MLU 67 89 73 90 / 0 30 10 20 DEQ 70 88 72 87 / 0 20 40 40 TXK 72 91 75 91 / 0 20 20 30 ELD 68 88 73 88 / 0 20 10 20 TYR 73 89 75 89 / 0 20 20 30 GGG 73 89 75 89 / 0 20 20 30 LFK 73 90 76 89 / 10 20 10 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.