textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Severe thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, mainly across Deep East Texas and areas of northern LA south of the I-20 corridor.

- A substantial, yet brief cool down early next week will result in below normal high temperatures as well as the potential for frost/freeze conditions Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1028 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning clearly depicts a closed low/shortwave trough of low pressure in the mid and upper levels moving east across the state of Texas. In the low levels closer to the surface, a cold frontal boundary stretches from the Great Lakes region SW through the Mid MS Valley and the Southern Plains. Both this feature and the upper trough continue to be responsible for the active weather/severe weather across the Four State Region of OK/AR/LA/TX.

Recent mosaic radar imagery continues to portray convection along and ahead of pre-frontal trough over East TX. Regional mesoanalysis indicates sufficient instability ahead of this boundary, with close to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, along with effective shear values nearing 60kts. These parameters are allowing for enough buoyancy and updraft organization to make for areas of organized convection, which will carry a severe thunderstorm threat. SRH values continue to weaken, and mid level lapse rates remain rather meager, lending to largely a damaging wind threat into the early afternoon.

This afternoon and evening, the severe weather forecast will inherit some uncertainty in regards to: 1) the track of the upper low and the associated development of a sfc wave along along the approaching cold front. A more southern track of these features into central or southern LA could keep severe weather chances just to the south or right along the southern border of our CWA. A more northern track into northern LA would open the area south of the I-20 corridor to a greater chance for severe thunderstorms. Right now, current indication is for this low to maintain enough of a northern track to keep severe weather chances across the southern half of the forecast area. 2) This morning's convection could stabilize the atmosphere enough to hamper severe weather threats this afternoon, except for far southern zones. While these uncertainties cast some doubt on severe weather this afternoon and evening, areas across Deep East Texas and areas south of the I-120 corridor in LA should prepare for another round of severe weather. Sufficient forcing aloft will increase convergence and lift along the cold front boundary, with a moist and unstable environment ahead of it and enough localized SRH to make for an all-hazard threat, including several tornadoes. A Tornado Watch, coordinated with the SPC, will be in effect across the aforementioned areas through 6pm CDT. Convection will be east of the area late this evening towards midnight.

A ~1030mb surface high will move into the region in the wake of today's frontal system tonight and Thursday, making for a much chillier night with lows in the 30s north and 40s south. Sunny skies prevail Thursday with highs in the low 60s. High pressure will quickly shift east on Friday allowing for a quick warm up in high temperatures back into the 70s. Even warmer conditions return for the weekend before the next strong cold front sweeps thru late Sunday into Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary during this time. The severe threat currently looks low, with buoyancy mostly aided by diurnal heating. The NW trajectory of this system also casts doubt on the severe potential. Expect a very noticeable cool down behind this front, with highs struggling to reach 60 in many areas on Monday, and then the potential for a freeze along and north of the I-30 corridor, with areas of frost possible as well. Will see a slow warming trend thru mid-week with dry conditions prevailing.

CK

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

For the 11/12Z TAFs, an active forecast period continues as a line of showers and thunderstorms oriented southwest to northeast continues to push northeast across the region this morning. This line has had a history of producing strong wind gusts into southwest Arkansas. Further showers and storms are expected into this afternoon, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Thunderstorm impacts will continue through early evening, diminishing from northwest to southeast. South winds will persist early in this forecast period, pivoting to northerly as the front passes through the region beginning this afternoon, becoming breezier with sustained speeds of 10 to 20 kts overnight and gusts of up to 30 kts possible.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1028 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening for areas of Deep East Texas and portions of northwest and north- central Louisiana.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 45 64 43 75 / 50 0 0 0 MLU 45 62 40 73 / 80 0 0 0 DEQ 35 64 37 73 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 41 65 43 76 / 30 0 0 0 ELD 40 62 39 73 / 50 0 0 0 TYR 43 66 45 77 / 30 0 0 0 GGG 42 65 42 76 / 50 0 0 0 LFK 45 66 43 75 / 60 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.