textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- The heat will persist, with near advisory level conditions through the end of the week. We will continue to evaluate day to day on heat hazards heading into the upcoming holiday weekend.

- Upper ridging will remain anchored to our NE over the OH and TN Valleys, with an emerging easterly wave influence along the Gulf coast. This will bring rain chances back into the area through at least the end of the work week.

- The pattern will likely become even more favorable for daily convection by this holiday weekend into next week as the ridge weakens and drifts out over the Atlantic.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Another warm and humid day across the area, with heat indices expected to range from 100-105 degrees. However, a few isolated higher indices can't be ruled out. Because of this, we decided to hold off on an advisory, but we will continue to evaluate heat hazards daily. Regardless, we urge everyone to take the necessary heat precautions to avoid heat related illnesses. Besides the heat, we will see a return in showers and thunderstorms across portions of the region. The center of upper ridge that has kept us dry over the past several days has shifted northeast of the region into the Ohio & Tennessee Valley areas. An easterly wave on the southerly periphery of the ridge will follow the anti- cyclonic easterly flow into southern Louisiana through this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already developed across southern and central Louisiana and will continue to shift WNW through the early evening hours. We can't rule out some severe weather with these storms, which has been highlighted by a Marginal Risk from the Storm Prediction Center for areas generally east of a line from Natchitoches, LA to El Dorado AR. With Surface based CAPE between 4000-5000 J/kg and Downdraft CAPE over 1000 J/kg, along with low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km, damaging winds from microbursts/downburst will be a concern. Convection should diminish in coverage with the loss of daytime heating, but some short-term progs are keeping isolated convection going through 9-10 PM this evening before things are clear. We should see a repeat of easterly wave action on Thursday/Friday. However, the models are shifting the expected activity from the eastern half of the region into the western half, with the bulk of the precipitation across east Texas and adjacent Western Louisiana. This is the due to the ridge expanding southward into the SE CONUS and adjacent Lower Mississippi Valley. Can't rule out additional microburst/downburst concerns with stronger storms.

The ridge is expected to weaken and shift eastward into the Atlantic this upcoming weekend. A more broad dirty type ridge will develop across the southern half of the CONUS in wake of the departing ridge, which will allow daily convection to develop with daytime heating. Although widespread severe weather isn't expected, the environment could still be favorable for damaging wind gusts. Despite the potential rain chances, it will remain warm and humid across the region. With many people likely being outdoors for the upcoming holiday, remember to exercise heat safety precautions, regardless if there are any heat hazards in place. Also, When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. /20/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

For the 02/00z TAF period...A mix bag of flight conditions across the region, as convection is moving across the region from the SE. KSHV, KMLU, and KLFK, will have a chance of seeing some convection over the next 2-3 hours, and possibly at KELD as well. Decided to tempo in precipitation for these areas. Reduced flight categories can be expected by daybreak, as low cigs move into the region. Showers may return by the end of the TAF period at our East Texas and NW Louisiana sites. /20/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Although spotter activation is not expected at this time, spotter reports could be needed with the return of isolated to scattered convection over the next several days, as some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 76 93 76 93 / 20 20 10 10 MLU 76 94 76 95 / 40 10 0 10 DEQ 74 92 74 92 / 0 20 10 20 TXK 76 94 76 94 / 10 20 0 20 ELD 75 93 75 94 / 20 10 0 10 TYR 77 95 77 95 / 0 30 10 20 GGG 77 94 76 94 / 20 30 10 20 LFK 75 92 75 94 / 20 40 10 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.