textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- Some showers and isolated thunderstorm remnants will be edging across TX/OK today with more to develop with heating pushing eastward.

- We have a Marginal Risk for strong to severe convection early in the day and then more will possible with heating by midday as activity spreads eastward to along I-49 by afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A mild start today will find low to mid 60s, keeping in the upper 70s and lower 80s for highs as skies remain mostly cloudy N and W, but still more mid to upper 80s are likely east of I-49 with more sunshine. The high resolution and many short term models paint some good QPF moving north of I-30 by daybreak with a weaker push along I-20 early that will weaken by mid morning. This will bring rain cooled boundaries with some momentum into the heart of our Four State area as addition convection arrives from central TX. Plus we will have enough moisture and instability which should refire development and pop-up some strong convection with the expected above average heating along the leading boundary edge. This second stronger push from central TX will also be expected to push along and under our I-30 corridor for the afternoon, and trailing down across I-20 in E TX by mid to late afternoon. This push will have the best instability and potential for severe activity while edging toward Texarkana and Shreveport for the late day and evening hours.

The SPC has not changed much at all with SW AR and some of NW LA still in their new Day 1 Marginal Risk for some severe activity, which will becoming active again by early afternoon with heating. The QPF is not very impressive for our masses, but due to slow movement of some the clustering potential, the WPC continues their Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for much of the same areas previously mentioned to see convection during Sunday afternoon and evening. This push will be it for now, but Monday will keep some scattered convection possible, but until the long wave out west reloads with another upper low by midweek taking aim on our NW third of Counties in OK/TX. The storm track continues to buffer up against the big upper ridge holding station over the SE U.S.

The continued moist southerly flow will feel a little muggy and quite warm with well above temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. The SPC has additional Slight and Marginal risks for severe on their day 5 for our Wednesday and overnight period. Likewise, the WPC repositions another Marginal Risk outlook for excessive rainfall during midweek with this next push on their new day 4, with this next chance for more widespread convection along I-30 and I-20 in E TX. As mentioned last night, beyond midweek to late week as convection wanes, we will see more 60s for lows with mid to upper 80s late week ahead of our third round of convection with much better coverage for all during next weekend as a decent cold front shifts our S/SW winds to NW during Saturday. The models paint up some good QPF with much of this activity post frontal, like our last good rain. This arriving air mass will bring back cooler mornings in the 50s and highs in the 70s for Sunday and next Monday. /24/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

An extensive area of low MVFR cigs have spread NNE into much of E TX/Wrn LA this morning, and should to shift farther N into SE OK and adjacent sections of SW AR through mid to late morning. These cigs may be slow to lift over E TX this morning, as a decaying area of -SHRA continues to spread ENE into NE TX. These -SHRA may hold together to affect portions of SW AR/NW LA by mid and late morning, but little if any thunder as well as reduced vsbys are expected as they diminish. However, additional deeper convection may develop this afternoon farther SW across Cntrl and ECntrl TX, which may spread ENE into E TX and possibly extreme NW LA/SW AR, affecting all but the ELD/MLU terminals. Uncertainty as to the extent of convection development remains though, but should they develop over these areas, MVFR cigs and reduced vsbys are possible, before more extensive MVFR cigs develop this evening and spread NNE across the region through the overnight hours. The convection may linger through the remainder of the TAF period before diminishing prior to daybreak Monday, with the IFR/low MVFR cigs again taking a better part of the morning to lift/return to VFR. S winds 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts today will diminish to 7-12kts after 00Z, except gusty in and near the storms. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight over portions of East Texas, for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms as well as heavy rainfall which may produce localized flash flooding. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 83 68 85 67 / 40 50 40 0 MLU 87 67 87 65 / 10 20 30 0 DEQ 78 62 79 62 / 70 70 60 10 TXK 82 68 83 67 / 60 60 60 10 ELD 84 64 84 63 / 20 50 50 10 TYR 79 68 82 68 / 80 60 30 0 GGG 82 66 83 67 / 60 60 40 0 LFK 82 67 84 67 / 50 50 30 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.