textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for isolated strong to severe storms, will increase this morning and spread east across the region through the day along a cold front, exiting the area this evening.

- Cooler and drier air will spill east-southeast behind the front, with more seasonal temperatures expected Wednesday. - Another cold front will move through the region Friday, reinforcing the cool and dry air mass already in place by week's end into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The early morning mosaic radar imagery indicates a narrow line of convection that continues to shift E through Ern OK through Nrn and Cntrl TX, and has accelerated well ahead of the dry line over Wrn OK into the Big Country of WCntrl TX, which has recently been overtaken by a cold front. The latest mesoanalysis still indicates bulk shear of 45-50kts from N TX into SE OK, with MLCapes ranging from 1000-1500 J/Kg, with this environment expected to maintain the ongoing convection before additional weakening occurs. The various short term progs have been in good agreement with the ongoing convection entering McCurtain County OK within the next hour or so, eventually spreading into our extreme NE TX counties by 09Z, while making steady progress E through the remainder of the day as large scale forcing increases just ahead of the longwave trough axis that will traverse the Srn Plains. Thus, an increase in convection strength and coverage should occur later this morning through the afternoon, with MLCapes again increasing ahead of the convection from Deep E TX through much of NCntrl LA/Srn AR with the onset of diurnal heating. Already seeing some scattered -SHRA development early this morning well ahead of the convection from Deep E TX/Wrn LA N into SW AR along a zone of weak isentropic ascent, with the 00Z HREF suggesting that this will continue which would help to limit the extent of increased instability as the convection arrives to these areas. However, bulk shear of 30-40kts will persist within the convective development zone along the axis of gradually increasing instability, such that isolated strong to severe storms may develop by mid to late morning through the afternoon as the zone of greatest ascent spreads NE along the base of the ejecting trough axis. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds and a non- zero threat of an isolated tornado will be possible, before the storms quickly shift E of the area by mid to late evening. QPF amounts of 0.5-1.5+ inches still looks like a good bet areawide through this evening, before another prolonged period of dryness commences in wake of our cold frontal passage.

Cooler and drier air will begin to spill ESE into the region with the fropa later today/tonight, cooling temps back down to near the daily norms by Wednesday. While a zonal flow aloft will return beneath the departing upper trough passage Wednesday, the flow will become SW by Thursday ahead of the next shortwave trough that will traverse the Plains S into OK/N TX. The GFS is quite bullish in returning a deep moisture fetch NE into E TX/N LA Thursday afternoon and evening, but is the outlier though while developing scattered -SHRA over these areas ahead of the trough. Did tone down the chance NBM pops to slight chance Thursday afternoon/night, but still can't rule out a few sprinkles along the main trough axis to our N over SE OK/SW AR Thursday night. This next trough will reinforce a reinforcing cold front through the area Friday, which will help to spill even cooler temps back into the region through the upcoming weekend. While the various medium range guidance has backed off on deep longwave troughing digging through the area early next week, they do maintain seasonal temps but dry conditions (with low RH's, although a considerable spread in the synoptic pattern is evident amongst the 00Z medium range guidance by this time.

15

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

For the 03/06Z TAF period, an increasingly active 24 hours lies ahead as Gulf moisture and low clouds surge northward across our airspace ahead of a cold front. This front will arrives in East TX between 12Z-15Z on Tuesday morning, closer to 18Z at KSHV and KTXK and finally in our eastern airspace at KELD and KMLU late in the TAF period around 04/00Z. Along and ahead of the cold front, look for increasing SHRA and TSRA throughout much of the morning in East TX before expanding eastward toward midday into SW AR and NW LA with the advancing cold front. Cigs and vsby restrictions will generally range from MVFR to IFR for much of the period, and possibly LIFR at times with increasing convection throughout today. Wind speeds will remain elevated with a tightening pressure gradient, ranging between 10-15 kts on average with higher gusts, especially invof convection. Improving conditions will return across western sites late in the period following fropa as convection gradually ends from west to east.

/19/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Spotter activation may be needed today through this evening across the region, for the potential of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 76 54 73 50 / 100 10 0 0 MLU 82 56 74 47 / 100 80 0 0 DEQ 76 50 73 46 / 90 0 0 0 TXK 74 52 73 46 / 100 0 0 0 ELD 78 51 73 44 / 100 20 0 0 TYR 76 52 74 52 / 90 0 0 0 GGG 75 51 73 48 / 100 0 0 0 LFK 77 52 76 49 / 100 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.