textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Summer's days are numbered, but the heat rolls on for a few more afternoons above average with Forecast Headlines for Heat. - We still have a slight chance for some rainfall, but a much better offing rainwise later in the long term period.

- A weak cool front and a Tutt low lifting out of the eastern Gulf will bring about better rain chances and less sinking air.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Hot day going again with daily maximums not far from here with mid to upper 90s areawide here at 2pm. Scattered fair weather CU is a broken deck 5-7kft in a few spots. Pretty flat on top along and west of I-49, but a little more texture on the visible imagery to our east. The KSHV 88D is showing a few cells over NE LA and some scattered thunderstorms across the delta into SE AR and MS. The HRRR doesn't really have much to hang your hat on as to where the rest of the afternoon is headed for new development, but the GFS and NAM like the lower MS River valley iin general for additional coverage this late afternoon.

The upper ridge is drifting to the NE and will continue to slowly lift in that direction through midweek building to 600dam over N GA/E TN by this time Wednesday afternoon with very good agreement there. Meanwhile, a Tutt low is well progged to lift into the eastern Gulf on Thursday, closed at 586-8dam on all the progs. The GFS and ECMWF both keep it closed deepening to 584 dam with a very weak surface reflection over the weekend. So the lowering heights will help tone down the heat for us, but we really need to get on the eastern side of the low for anything really to happen good rainwise.

The GFS does this best for us and likes the LA coast by Monday, while the ECMWF is situated over the FL panhandle. The new run is much shallower on the cool frontal penetration next week into the middle MS River valley than previous runs. And so, the upper ridge reforms over E OK/E TX early in the new season as a deep Pacific trough on the West coast and Baja sits offshore building our ridge. The Autumnal Equinox occurs on next Tuesday 9/22 at 7:05 pm. The latest 8-14 day outlook from the CPC maintains the above average temperatures for us with near normal rain, down from leaning above. /24/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions should continue through the 14/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has developed across the region early this afternoon, with the cu a bit more agitated over portions of Srn AR/NCntrl and NE LA along a weakly convergent axis noted on the visible satellite imagery. Believe this is where the isolated to scattered convection will develop this afternoon, possibly affecting the MLU/ELD terminals, where VCTS was maintained with mention of tempo thunder/locally gusty winds with vsby reductions for the mid/late afternoon hours. Any convection farther W should be more isolated if they develop at all, and thus have dropped VCTS mention for TXK/SHV given the low confidence of occurrence. Any convection that does develop should diminish by/shortly after 00Z, although some elevated convection debris may linger this evening/overnight across portions of NCntrl LA/SCntrl AR. Patchy VLIFR cigs/FG may again develop around daybreak Tuesday across portions of Deep E TX near LFK, before quickly lifting into a stratocu field by mid-morning. A scattered cu field should develop elsewhere again by late morning, with any convection expected to become more isolated for the mid and late afternoon across NCntrl LA/SCntrl AR. S winds 5-10kts this afternoon will become light SSE or Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 77 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 75 99 76 99 / 0 10 0 0 DEQ 72 99 72 98 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 76 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 20 ELD 73 99 74 98 / 10 10 0 10 TYR 76 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 75 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 20 LFK 74 96 74 94 / 0 0 0 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.