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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Temperature maximums will continue above normal (upper 90s) this afternoon.

- Hazardous heat returns through most of the work week with elevated potentials of temperature maximums in the lower 100s and mostly dry conditions.

- A pattern change by the end of the week will yield a return to near-normal summertime heat and higher chances of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The heat is on for the Ark-La-Tex over the next several days as ridging builds back eastward across the southern Great Plains. This will displace any real hope of precipitation until the end of the week, while trapping stagnant southerly flow near the surface. This will reduce the efficiency of mechanical mixing, especially with the thermal effects of insolation producing meager differences in dew point depression trends through the afternoon (Tds still in the lower 70s). Given the predisposition of this pattern to moist air, our concern is with how hazardous this will make the above normal temperature maximums by Monday into Wednesday (a 60% to 80% probability of lower 100s) and heat hazard product issuance is likely as a result. Long-range guidance suggests some "light at the end of the tunnel" with ridging finally starting to break down by the end of the next work week and the end of the month. Synoptic-scale flow aloft gains more of a meridional orientation as a troughing pattern takes shape between Atlantic ridging further east and Intermountain ridging to our west. A return to normal summertime heat (mid-90s) is likely as a result by this time with a coinciding increase in the potential for productive rounds of convection to form in the afternoons with daytime heating. With light winds not offering much relief, dew points are expected to remain mostly in the low-to-mid 70s through the next several days. Heat indices will range at 105-108 degrees as a result, and hazardous heat will be impactful for all groups of people and not just heat-sensitive groups. Precautions and awareness are encouraged to continue now against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. This includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion in addition to heat stroke. /16/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions currently prevailing across all terminal locations with SKC noted areawide. Pressure gradient in the lower levels is a little more relaxed compared to the last few previous mornings and as a result, we may struggle to see MVFR and/or IFR ceilings return overnight towards sunrise. Nevertheless, did TEMPO IFR ceilings and VSBY at LFK this morning, IFR ceilings at TYR and GGG and MVFR ceilings briefly at SHV just in case. Otherwise, a weak cu field will develop across most of our airspace which should not allow for any aviation concerns through the end of the TAF period.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 98 78 98 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 99 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 100 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 98 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 96 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.


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