textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- One more day of mostly isolated to widely scattered convection on Tuesday before convection becomes scattered to numerous over the area Wednesday into Thursday.

- Not expecting organized severe weather through the shortened work week but a random strong to isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

- Will need to watch the Wednesday/Wednesday Night timeframe for a period of excessive heavy rainfall which could result in some minor flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Already beginning to see isolated to widely scattered convection across our southeast and eastern most areas of East Central and Northeast Louisiana late this morning where higher PWATs exist. While the atmosphere is a little drier as you head west and northwest of our eastern most parishes, cannot rule out diurnally driven isolated convection across the remainder of our region for the remainder of the day into the evening hours. This due in part to a stagnant upper trough of low pressure spinning across our region which will remain in place through tonight before it begins to fill and migrate northward, north of the Ouachitas by Tuesday Evening. Expecting very similar conditions on Tuesday due to the exiting trough and higher PWAT values which will remain across our eastern zones.

The anchored upper level trough has allowed for our region to be somewhat cutoff from southwesterly flow aloft both Sunday and Today but that will change as we see a shift in the upper level flow as early as Tue Night but especially into Wed. The setup will return to a more pronounced southwest flow aloft pattern across our region with spokes of upper forcing rotating out of the Tx Hill Country and up our way. Progs are in pretty good agreement with rain chances becoming more numerous during the day Wed into Wed Night as the first of these pockets of ascent moves over our region from the west. WPC currently has much of our region in a Slight Risk of Excessive Heavy Rainfall for this timeframe and while widespread flooding does not appear to be an issue with this event attm, can't rule out at least some isolated flooding concerns beginning on Wed, especially across flood prone and poor drainage areas or where heavy rain has resulted in fairly saturated soils from the previous week's rainfall.

Our region will remain in a sort of inverted upper trough or a north to south oriented shear axis Thu into Fri and with plentiful moisture in place, we should continue to see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms impacting our region both days with the greater coverage being across our eastern half. It appears by the weekend, our region should begin to see the effects of weak upper ridging moving our way from the Texas Hill Country and while this will not result in a total end to our rain chances, we should at least be able to scale pops back to the isolated or widely scattered diurnally driven variety.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions will continue this evening through a portion of the overnight hours tonight, with isolated to widely scattered convection ongoing across the region attm expected to gradually diminish by mid-evening. However, convection may near the ELD terminal after 01Z, with the remaining convection expected to track far enough away from the other terminals such that little to no impacts are expected. However, will amend as needed, with some lingering cu accompanied by elevated cigs expected to persist this evening. The low level flow should transition to ESE late, with IFR/LIFR cigs and patchy FG developing across portions of Srn AR/N LA between 08-12Z, before lifting/becoming MVFR by 14-15Z. Some brief low MVFR cigs may develop farther W across E TX/Wrn LA shortly after 12Z, before returning to VFR cu cigs by midday. Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible mainly over all but Deep E TX, as the weak upper low begins to lift N into Ern OK/AR by Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is a little higher than average with VCSH mention at the TXK/ELD/MLU terminals, although VCSH/VCTS may be needed elsewhere pending how to convection development/placement of any lingering mesoscale bndrys evolves. Any lingering convection should diminish again by early evening Tuesday. Lt/Vrb winds tonight will become SSE 4-6kts after 15Z. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

While an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through Wednesday, widespread severe weather is not likely. Instead, an increasing flood threat could develop Wednesday into Wednesday Night across our region. Therefore, spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 67 88 70 84 / 20 20 20 90 MLU 67 88 70 86 / 30 40 20 80 DEQ 64 85 65 82 / 20 30 30 90 TXK 66 89 68 85 / 20 20 20 90 ELD 64 86 67 84 / 20 30 20 80 TYR 68 90 70 82 / 20 20 40 90 GGG 68 89 70 82 / 20 20 20 90 LFK 68 91 71 82 / 20 20 30 100

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.