textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 116 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Scattered showers and storms will be possible north and west this morning, with more widespread spotty coverage into the afternoon. A few gusty winds are possible.

- Dry conditions will resume Tuesday, with trends favoring some relief from the heat in the form of highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s by late in the week.

- Long range guidance suggests a warming trend into the weekend and returning rain chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A weak band of showers has been slowly drifting across north Texas and south Oklahoma through the evening, but struggling to maintain structure as it pushes into our CWA. Short range guidance suggests this will continue through the night, with light showers at most, keeping largely northwest of the I-30 corridor. Renewed rainfall development into the morning is possible, but looks to be confined to the same general region, across the northwest of the ArkLaTex.

By midday, the weak shortwave responsible for this moisture impulse will begin to push eastward, swinging the surface boundary along with it, and spreading rainfall chances eastward. The mode of the associated convection looks to be less linear in nature, with short range CAMs suggesting more isolated pop-up convection across the majority of the region through the late afternoon and early evening hours tomorrow. Organized severe weather is not expected, but general thunderstorms are expected across the region, with a few gusty winds possible. Convection will quiet down in the hours after sunset, with quiet conditions persisting afterwards, aside from a few scattered showers and storms south and east Tuesday afternoon.

High pressure will begin to reassert itself Tuesday, as ridging over the Front Range pushes east over the Plains, where it will remain through the rest of the week, as a large closed high takes shape over east Texas and Louisiana. The almost triangular shape of this high, guided by the parent ridge, in tandem with the pressure center drifting south towards the coast, opens the door for less aggressively hot conditions by the end of this forecast period. Referring to the afternoon temperatures as a "cool down" feels generous to the point of unrealistic, but highs only in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be a welcome change of pace. Morning lows will constitute a breath of fresh air, particularly for our Arkansas counties, which will be among the first to enjoy lows in the upper 60s, with lower 60s north to upper 60s south becoming routine by the end of the week. Long range guidance suggests a warming trend into the weekend, with potential rainfall chances emerging on northwest flow into early next week.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 116 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

For the 21/06z TAF period, mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue overnight aside from MVFR conditions at KLFK early this morning due to patchy fog and low stratus. Clouds will continue to increase in coverage with an expanding cirrus shield and a cu field quickly developing through the day in advance of an approaching cold front. This front will bring an increasing chance of convection by the afternoon so have included VCTS at all terminals at some point in the afternoon into early evening. Otherwise, winds will be light from the south overnight and increase slightly from the SW ahead of the front between 5-10 kts and higher invof convection before light and variable winds return later in the period as the front stalls.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 116 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 97 74 97 75 / 20 20 10 0 MLU 99 72 98 72 / 10 20 10 0 DEQ 96 68 93 67 / 20 10 20 0 TXK 97 72 95 72 / 20 10 10 0 ELD 98 70 96 69 / 20 10 10 0 TYR 97 73 96 74 / 40 20 10 10 GGG 99 72 98 72 / 30 20 20 10 LFK 95 73 96 75 / 10 10 20 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.