textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Below normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue across the region through Tuesday.

- The potential for more widespread wetting rains will return to the region Wednesday and Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The evening water vapor imagery indicates the base of sharp longwave troughing digging SE through the TX Hill Country into SE TX, with the mid level cigs noted ahead of the trough extending from the Sabine Valley NE into NE LA and the Lower MS Valley expected to quickly diminish from W to E through shortly after midnight. Meanwhile, the latest sfc analysis indicates a weak sfc trough bisecting the region, extending from Cntrl and SW AR into NE TX just N of the I-20 corridor. This is most indicative by the wind shift in the latest sfc obs, as well as a semi-sharp division of much drier (single digit) dewpoints noted to the NW of the sfc trough over N and extreme NE TX, SE OK, and Wrn AR. The latest hi-res guidance suggests that this bndry will continue to drift SE overnight, exiting the region to the SE by daybreak Sunday. However, these single digit dewpoints should also eventually mix SE across a good portion of the area through Sunday as sfc ridging builds S into the Wrn Gulf from WCntrl TX. Winds associated with this bndry may also help to keep the air mixed enough overnight to keep temps from plunging quickly, although any reduced wind and the clearing sky in place will help contribute in temps falling quickly.

WSW bndry lyr winds will return atop the sfc ridge Sunday afternoon as it moves into the NW Gulf, which will contribute to modifying but still below normal temps over the Wrn half of the region despite the increased insolation expected. While dewpoints should begin to recover Sunday night, good radiational cooling is expected as winds decouple by early evening, resulting in another night of subfreezing temps areawide. Additional sfc ridging remains progged to build S into the Red River and Lower MS Vallies Monday, which will help to reinforce the very cool (below normal temps) but very dry air mass in place N of I-20, and areawide Tuesday as the persistent Cntrl and ERN CONUS longwave trough reloads with the next piece of shortwave energy set to traverse the Ozarks into the Mid MS/OH Vallies.

Some slight changes have been noted in the synoptic pattern amongst the various medium range progs by midweek, specifically maintaining broad troughing across the Cntrl and Ern CONUS through at least midweek. Rather than a shortwave trough developing ahead of the digging trough, the last couple of deterministic and ensemble runs have trended towards a developing shortwave trough along the base of the longwave as it exits the Srn Rockies, tapping ample Pacific moisture. A developing SSWrly LLJ will help induce isentropic forcing from the TX Hill Country into N and E TX early Wednesday morning, with large scale forcing increasing through the day ahead of the approaching trough. Thus, SHRA should become more numerous during the day, providing wetting rainfall to most locales (except for areas NW of I-30) through Wednesday night before diminishing from W to E. Temps should begin to slowly moderate by late week especially as a SSWrly low level flow redevelops over the region, yielding a gradual increase in dewpoints as well. This may set the stage for the potential for isolated to scattered convection development by the end of the extended period into next weekend.

15

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

For the 18/06z TAF update...early suggestion of some OVC conditions developing towards morning seem less likely now, so I have introduced more SKC for this TAF period. Honestly thinking that most terminals will remain clear throughout this period. Winds will generally be out of the north through most of the night, shifting to more of a westerly wind by around 18/18z and then lighter and more variable towards the end of the period. With SKC prevailing throughout, we will remain VFR throughout this period. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through at least early next week. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 24 52 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 25 46 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 14 48 23 46 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 22 49 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 18 46 23 47 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 23 55 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 23 53 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 25 55 29 61 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.