textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- A quiet and warm start to the week is in store, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

- Thunderstorms will return along and north of the I-30 corridor late Tuesday. A few storms may become strong to severe.

- Rainfall chances will continue for much of the remainder of the week, with more mild temperatures throughout and severe weather potential south of I-20 on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Upper level flow over the ArkLaTex will see several weak disturbances emerge within the pseudo-zonal flow remaining from the weekend ridge. For the course of the day today, quiet conditions will remain, along with a continued warming trend as highs take aim at the upper 70s and lower 80s. A weak shortwave swill swing a surface boundary into the region Tuesday, potentially as soon as overnight tonight into tomorrow morning across our northernmost zones, becoming more widespread along and north of I-30 by Tuesday afternoon and evening. A chance exists for these thunderstorms to become strong to severe.

Severe weather will also be possible Wednesday across approximately the southeastern half of the ArkLaTex, though the timing of the catalyst for this severe setup remains unclear. The driving factor will be a large cutoff low over the northern Baja peninsula, which is projected to swing eastward during the week. However, recent long range model runs have been slowing down this eastern progression, the latest GFS suggesting the low will open up to a trough that effectively detaches and amplifies while the low reforms itself over the southwest. The trough will be absorbed into upper level flow while the low meanders across Texas by late this week or early in the weekend. The result of this solution is an unsettled pattern which begins with Tuesday's storms and continues for much of the week ahead, and will bear monitoring as subsequent model runs become available.

Meanwhile, the surface boundaries serving as forcing mechanisms for the week ahead will put a dent in our warming trend, with highs in the 80s being cut down to the 70s across our northern zones Wednesday and areawide by Thursday, followed by a gradual return to the upper 70s to lower 80s by next weekend. Lows in the 50s and 60s will briefly return to the upper 40s and lower 50s behind the front, likewise quickly rebounding to the 60s.

/26/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

For the 04/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected through much this period as high cirrus continues to increase across our airspace today. With increasing southerly flow, expect more fair weather cumulus by midday along with additional high-level clouds through this afternoon before thinning slightly in coverage after 05/00Z. Otherwise, expect increasing S/SW winds throughout the day between 12-18 kts with higher gusts near 20-25 kts throughout much of the afternoon and early evening, especially across our western TAF sites. Then overnight, look for low stratus to quickly expand northward with MVFR cigs moving back into East TX after midnight and possibly at KSHV by the very end of the period.

/19/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 82 66 85 71 / 0 0 10 20 MLU 82 63 86 70 / 0 10 10 20 DEQ 79 63 83 59 / 0 10 20 50 TXK 82 67 85 66 / 0 10 20 50 ELD 80 62 84 64 / 0 10 10 40 TYR 80 68 85 70 / 0 0 10 30 GGG 80 66 85 70 / 0 0 10 20 LFK 82 66 85 72 / 0 0 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.