textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- A quiet overnight with a change of seasons under fair skies, but morning low clouds will greet the warm and breezy day.

- Best chances for rainfall on Father's Day will come up from the Gulf with a enhanced sea breeze under another weakness aloft.

- Another cool front will sink down across the plains and middle MS River valley bringing focus for additional showers and thunderstorms early to midweek as temperatures warm up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Fair skies this early morning with more morning stratus expected to develop in the wee hours and into the mid morning. The will arrive and or form right around the Summer solstice at 3:24 a.m. this morning, kicking off our summer with a continued wet pattern. Unlike the last few days with NW flow and weak upper level disturbances, today's push will arrive from the Gulf. We will see SW surface winds a little more breezy than lately and highs topping off near average around the 90 degree mark. The lingering humidity in the air will lift out the wet soils and boost our heat index into the lower 100s range this afternoon. There is a weak upper level low modeled to slide out of the Gulf moving toward NE LA. So the with this, the sea breeze will get a running start early in the day with some activity lifting in our area mid to late morning, and continuing across I-20 by early afternoon. This convection will lift farther north into OK/AR and dissipate late in the afternoon or early evening. Then we will look back to the northwest for some arriving overnight convection to clip our northern most counties.

The SPC has a General risk for nearly all of us today with some gusty winds to 40 mph most likely from the strongest storms. They do have the Marginal risk down across McCurtain Co primarily for the overnight, and then their day 2 shifts that Marginal line well south of I-20 for Monday as we will reset the NW flow pattern for the new week one last time. This next front will keep to our north, but do well to bottle up some of the available moisture. Meanwhile, our heights aloft will slowly climb over with a 1020mb surface high expected to develop over the northern Gulf coast. So expect the storm track to shift a little farther northward than here lately as S/SW winds prevail in our neck of the woods.

The WPC has us under Marginal due to our soaked soils, most of the QPF off the Gulf will be generally less than an inch. However, as that NW flow resets with another weak frontal boundary sinking our way, and they do have the Slight risk draped over McCurtain over into central AR for today, then edging that Slight risk for excessive rainfall back down to the AR/LA state line and over northern most portions of NE TX by Monday, and then more Marginal risk thereafter, until we dry out.

So the good news is that the rain will briefly continue into summer. As these cool fronts fail to fully arrive like the last few, we will hang on to the muggy S/SW winds and slowly dry out the ground a little more each day late week, with soil temps climbing into the 80s. All this as a 591dam upper ridge over the eastern Gulf by next weekend. This upper ridging will nose up into the middle MS River Valley, and will continue to keep us drying with high temperatures set to climb through the mid 90s and even see some widespread upper 90s in the picture. No doubt we will have more Heat Advisory material looming as our dew points will remain elevated until the soil drys too. Morning lows will trend upward as well with mid to upper 70s becoming in vogue for us.

/24/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

IFR/LIFR cigs have developed over much of the region this morning, with patchy FG also noted over portions of Deep E TX, as well as ELD. These cigs should slowly lift/become MVFR by mid-morning, and eventually VFR by midday, with the exception of LFK as a band of convection associated with an enhanced seabreeze continues to make rapid NE progress into Deep E TX by 14-15Z. Have inserted tempo thunder mention at LFK after 14Z, as well as the GGG/SHV/MLU terminals from late morning through early afternoon. This convection should also affect the SW AR terminals by early afternoon, but will quickly exit the region and diminish by 20-22Z. Gusty winds to 30-35kts as well as vsby reductions will also accompany the convection, with VFR conditions expected in their wake with a scattered cu field and lingering low AC/cirrus cigs. These cigs should diminish by early afternoon with a few residual cu possibly lingering through the evening, before low MVFR cigs redevelop and spread back N into the region after 06Z Monday. An MCS should also slide SE from Cntrl/Ern OK and NW AR and could possibly move into extreme SE OK/adjacent SW AR shortly before daybreak Monday, but should remain N of the TXK terminal through the end of the 21/12Z TAF period. S winds 10-14kts with gusts to 25kts today, except higher gusts in/near the convection, will diminish to 8-12kts after 00Z. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed today, but may be needed prior to daybreak Monday across Southeast Oklahoma and the northern sections of Southwest Arkansas for the approaching complex of strong thunderstorms. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 90 77 93 78 / 40 10 20 20 MLU 91 77 94 77 / 60 10 30 40 DEQ 90 75 88 73 / 20 50 70 80 TXK 93 77 92 76 / 20 30 50 60 ELD 91 76 92 75 / 40 20 40 60 TYR 91 78 94 78 / 30 10 10 10 GGG 90 77 93 77 / 40 10 10 20 LFK 91 77 95 77 / 70 10 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.