textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- A gradual weakening of the upper ridge is expected today into Friday, paving the way for a trough and weak frontal boundary to drop south with rain chances increasing areawide on Friday.

- The ridge will eventually regain its footing across much of the SECONUS by late weekend, limiting daily convection to diurnally driven activity mainly during peak heating hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A slight pattern shift is already underway early this morning as the expansive upper ridge has begun to split off, providing for a weakness in the longwave pattern that will allow a trough to drop south into our region. This trough will help to usher a weak cool front into our far northern zones by early this evening, bringing elevated rain chances to areas along and north of I-30 later today into tonight. Late day timing of convection coinciding with peak heating may allow for a few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts along and just south of the front as it nears I-30 by this evening. Farther south, convection is less likely except for some sea-breeze induced activity in our far southern zones as a weak low drifts northward from the SE LA coast this afternoon.

Although heat advisory headlines are not in effect today, high temperatures will still surge into the mid to upper 90s over the vast majority of the region this afternoon. Compressional warming ahead of the front may amplify this heat in our northern zones so cannot rule out some areas briefly reaching heat advisory criteria but should be isolated instances if it occurs. Rain chances should continue to increase areawide into Friday with the front slipping slightly farther south near the AR/LA border before stalling out. Although not everyone will see rainfall, Friday is likely to yield the best coverage of convection over the next 7 days, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours during peak heating.

Unfortunately, the ridge is still progged to build back over the SECONUS we move later in the weekend. This will begin to limit our rain chances once again while pushing temperatures higher through at least the middle of next week. Convection will be more isolated to widely scattered during this timeframe, spurred on by diurnally driven instability each day for much of next week. Looking out a bit farther in time, indications of the upper ridge beginning to retrograde farther out west by next weekend still appear possible. Of course, this is still beyond a week out in the forecast but at least there are hints at our first real sign of slightly cooler temperatures along with additional rain chances by next weekend.

/19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, light S/SW wind this morning under fair skies. We could see a return of MVFR-LIFR at KLFK for another hour or two. Otherwise, S/SW winds will prevail 5-10KT for today with little if any convection expected again this late afternoon terminal wise, but isolated pop-ups will be possible here and there. A weak cool front approaching will bring an uptick in convection across I- 30 tonight with pooled moisture arriving for KTXK by 04-06Z and KTYR/KGGG 09-12Z. Coverage gets better areawide with heating. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Spotter activation may be needed by late this afternoon and early evening with storms along and north of the Interstate 30 corridor.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 97 76 95 75 / 10 0 30 10 MLU 98 75 95 74 / 10 10 50 10 DEQ 98 69 92 69 / 20 40 70 10 TXK 97 74 95 73 / 10 10 50 10 ELD 98 72 96 71 / 0 10 50 10 TYR 97 75 96 75 / 0 10 30 0 GGG 98 73 97 74 / 0 0 30 0 LFK 93 72 92 73 / 10 10 30 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.