textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Little in the way of expected again today as the upper ridge moves across the MS River near the boot heal of MO with lingering subsidence for most of our Four-State area. - Rain chances will be picking up south of I-20 as a tropical disturbance moves west northwest along the Gulf Coast, also adding humidity and some widespread heat advisory conditions.

- The upper ridge will weaken over the Appalachians by midweek as another front moves south into Great Lakes. The upper ridge will reform back over the plains states ahead of a deep trough.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Another hot day is in the books with no new records, but continued triple digits over east Texas will linger another day or two. We did have one lonely shower today near Sam Rayburn south of Pineland in the mid afternoon. And while most of us will see little change to our pattern in the short term, we could see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms edge toward our southern tier of counties and parishes late on Monday or early evening.

Of course, this is in response to the building disturbance in the northern Gulf. The National Hurricane Center will see data from an Air Force reconnaissance flight early on Monday and have a much better handle on conditions. For now, the water vapor and lightning detection both show the area of convection is expanding with several hot spots that could wrap up a core very quickly over the warm Gulf. The disturbance is 125 miles S of Grand Isle and is drifting west northwestward. A depression or Tropical storm may soon form and would be named Edouard.

The short term models are in good agreement with an upper core low weakness at 588dam, with the GFS taking the lead on the surface reflection wrapping up to 1006mb. The ECMWF is likewise, but not as deep 1010mb. Both sport a low level circulation in the latest run. So far, the system is fairly compact with impacts for our area not expected on Monday aside from some approaching convection late day. However, if well organized, some of this activity could end moving into our area by sunset and into the evening hours. Our forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday are already building the solid rain chances into our area already, and if the storm wraps up, these high chances will become more widespread likely. The WPC is high lighting Marginal EROs for our deep east Texas counties. So make sure and keep tabs on this potential for needed rainfall. Aside from all eyes on the Gulf, the remnants of Dolly are moving into the Leeward Islands and Bahamas and could end up helping out too, as a good cold front drops across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will dampen the migrating upper ridge and weaken it completely by midweek. This opens the door for the upper heat ridge to reform over the plains and intermountain west by late week. The GFS builds it to 597 dam, but the ECMWF likes more with 599dam by Labor Day and both over Nebraska. So our weekend may not be so hot with more clouds and decent rain chances arriving as the Ohio Valley surface high is reinforced, which will help to backdoor the boundary into the lower and middle MS River Valley.

Coverage will be mainly along and east of I-49, but very subject to change. A Pacific cyclone could soon form from a couple of strong disturbances out there south and southeast of Baja. One is 70% like the New Orleans disturbance and the other is more likely at 90% chance of formation. This is what the models both quickly wrap up late next weekend. So suffice it to say, the month of September generally sees the peak of tropical activity and will bear watching for much of the country. /24/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the 31/06Z TAf period. While some low AC may linger overnight across the Wrn sections of E TX, SKC will prevail elsewhere overnight, with a stratocu field expected to develop by mid to late morning across portions of NCntrl LA/SCntrl AR, before developing into more of a scattered elevated cu field elsewhere for the afternoon. Isolated convection may develop/affect portions of Cntrl LA by mid to late afternoon around a tropical disturbance that will drift W just S of the LA coast, but any convection will remain well S of MLU and E of LFK. Some elevated cu/low AC should linger this evening through the early morning hours Tuesday as this disturbance approaches the extreme SE TX coast. SE winds around 5kts overnight will become more ESE 5-8kts by late morning/midday. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 98 77 97 76 / 0 0 10 0 MLU 96 76 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 99 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 98 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 101 77 100 75 / 0 0 10 10 GGG 102 75 100 74 / 0 0 10 10 LFK 98 75 95 74 / 10 0 40 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.