textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible overnight across portions of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and possibly adjacent Southwest Arkansas.

- Much above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, with near record high temperatures possible.

- The potential for much needed but heavy rainfall exists overnight over northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent Southwest Arkansas, before returning Friday afternoon and gradually spreading southeast into Northeast Texas, Southern Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing for the past 7 to 8 hours in response to a mid-level disturbance slowing moving along the upper flow ahead of a stalled frontal boundary across North-Central Texas & adjacent Southeast Oklahoma. Most of this activity has stayed just to the west of our forecast zones, although we had one severe storm move across McCurtain County, OK. This convection is starting to lose intensity and diminish in coverage. However, there is a cluster of storms/MCV moving into our far western East Texas zones, north of I-20, that has had a history of producing heavy rainfall. This cluster has been slow moving and could continue to produce locally heavy rainfall over the next 2-3 hours in the aforementioned locations. Short-term progs are having some issues keeping up with this convection, but current thinking still believes this cluster should diminish over the next several hours, with the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes generally over. Again, the locally heavy rain aspect of this MCV will still need to by monitored. The disturbance triggering this convection should push out of the region overnight. The frontal boundary is also expected to lift back to the north throughout the day. Morning low clouds should give way to partly cloudy skies for most of the area south of I-30 this afternoon, with more record highs possible. Temperatures will start off in the low to mid 60s this morning, with highs ranging from the upper 70s north of I-30 to the mid 80s across the remainder of the region.

Expect morning low clouds to return again before sunrise Friday, with continued record warm possible in some locations during the afternoon hours. However, rain chances will return back to portions of the region by the evening hours. Another upper level trough will eject out of Colorado into the Northern Plains Friday afternoon, driving another frontal boundary into the area. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of this boundary, eventually moving into our forecast zones. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this period for another round of potential severe weather, so stay tuned. This boundary is expected to push deep into the region, before stalling for most of the upcoming weekend. This should bring a widespread coverage of moderate to heavy rain during this period. Although, this rainfall is much needed, the prolong period could result in some flooding concerns.

A wet pattern will remain through at least the first half of next week, as long-term progs have a much stronger closed upper trough slowly pushing eastward towards the area from the northern Baja region of Mexico. Ahead of the trough, several disturbances will move into the region, resulting in daily rain chances, until the trough finally pushes through region by late next week. Can't rule out more severe weather and excessive rainfall during this period.

/20/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

For the 05/12Z TAFs, CIGs have lowered as anticipated, with SCT to OVC MVFR decks at this hour, which will be stubborn and slow to improve through the day, gradually clearing and lifting from south to north, with BKN lower VFR decks by early evening. A mix of mid to high level clouds will persist overnight before another round of MVFR CIGs overspreads area airspace from the south by the tail end of this forecast period. Scattered showers along and north of the I-30 corridor will diminish through this morning. South winds will continue throughout, at maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 12 kts, with gusts of up to 20 kts possible during the afternoon, particularly across east Texas.

/26/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1230 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Spotter activation may be needed again by Friday and at various times during the upcoming weekend through the first half of next week. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 84 67 86 68 / 10 0 20 70 MLU 83 65 86 68 / 0 0 10 40 DEQ 79 60 80 58 / 50 10 60 90 TXK 84 66 84 67 / 20 10 50 90 ELD 83 62 84 63 / 10 0 20 70 TYR 84 66 84 67 / 20 10 50 80 GGG 85 65 85 66 / 10 0 40 80 LFK 83 65 85 67 / 0 0 30 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.