textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Heat-related impacts will continue through at least the middle of next week as hot afternoon temperatures and very warm overnight temperatures persist.

- A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night will pose the threat for strong to severe wind gusts.

- A pattern change towards late week may bring slightly cooler high temperatures and higher chances for beneficial rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a fairly high amplitude ridge of high pressure centered over the Southern and Central Rockies, extending through much of the Intermountain West, the Southern Great Plains and into Mexico. Upstream from this feature exists a fairly robust area of low pressure off the PNW Coast, while downstream of the ridge broad troughing exists across the majority of the Midwest and Eastern US. Near the surface, the latest WPC analysis depicts a weak boundary across SE OK and along the AR/LA border and into MS/AL, with a cool front pushing south across the Central Plains and towards northern AR as an expansive 1026mb high filters into the Northern Great Plains and Upper MS Valley.

The pattern described above places the Four State Region on the eastern periphery of the expansive upper level ridge, where some large scale subsidence could still be at work, but it also opens to the area into a NW flow pattern, where multiple shortwave disturbances can be detected within this broad flow. This always makes for a challenging forecast in regards to convective potential/coverage across the CWA. Meanwhile, boundaries near the surface often serve as a catalyst for convection within a warm and unstable environment, in which case multiple either exist or are pushing into the area. For the rest of today, expect hot temperatures in the lower 100s with heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees. All heat precautions will need to continue to be exercised. Convection this afternoon and evening will be tricky to forecast. A decaying complex across OK will largely diminish as it continues to approach the area. Despite this, given sufficient instability and steep low-level rates, isolated single-cell thunderstorms may develop ahead of it this afternoon and evening and carry a threat for small hail and gusty winds, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor. Also later this afternoon, a shortwave trough will push across eastern AR, along with the the southward moving cool frontal boundary. This is generate a moderately organized area of convection, most of which will remain east of the area across central and eastern AR, however isolated to scattered convection may eventually develop westward across Southern AR and northern LA through the overnight period.

Any convection that develops across the CWA overnight will gradually weaken and diminish through Sunday morning. Cloud cover will be noticeably higher on Sunday, especially across LA and AR where high temperatures may be 1-5 degrees cooler on Sunday. Unfortunately, high temperatures will still range from the upper 90s to lower 100s so heat index values will still reach advisory criteria. Therefore, the heat advisory has been extended area-wide for Sunday. Convective chances appear more limited for most of Sunday as the upper level ridge nudges slightly farther east. Still cannot completely rule out the chance for isolated afternoon and evening convection given the residual cool frontal boundary and daytime heating. Any convection will pose a threat for strong to severe winds briefly. Of greater concern late Sunday and into Monday appears to be another shortwave perturbation moving through the NW flow over AR, which hi-res guidance is suggesting could generate another semi-organized complex of thunderstorms. Should this complex develop, it may bring a better chance for wider-spread rain and thunderstorms. Placement, timing, and extent of this convection remains a challenge to forecast, but certainly bears monitoring in the near-term.

Moving into next week, ensemble consensus moves the ridge back east slightly. This will continue the concern for heat-related impacts as well as continue the elevated fire danger across the area. While many people will not have enjoyed reading that, there also remains rather solid consensus in another retrogression of the ridge by mid-week, which may offer slightly cooler high temperatures in the 90s and perhaps a better chance for rain and convection.

CK

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

For the 23/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail with afternoon convection has largely faded as we move into the early evening. However, a weak disturbance aloft combined with a slow-moving sfc boundary just north of our airspace will traverse farther south overnight into early Sunday morning. Weak forcing along and ahead of these features should initiate some isolated convection across parts of airspace so have inserted VCTS at most sites to account for this possibility. The most likely timeframe for this to occur appears to be from around 06Z-15Z, but timing may need adjusting based on actual observed trends as the convection evolves later this evening and overnight. Otherwise, a mix of mostly mid and high level clouds will persist throughout much of the period with some slightly lower cu/altocu invof of convection. Light/variable winds will prevail as well, except with higher convective gusts.

/19/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Spotter activation may needed late tonight and again on Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 80 104 81 102 / 20 30 10 10 MLU 76 101 77 96 / 10 30 40 40 DEQ 71 100 72 102 / 30 20 10 10 TXK 76 101 77 101 / 30 20 10 10 ELD 74 100 74 97 / 50 30 20 20 TYR 80 106 81 105 / 10 10 10 0 GGG 79 107 81 106 / 10 20 10 10 LFK 78 104 78 103 / 0 10 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.