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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Highs in the mid to upper 90s with dew points in the low to middle 70s will result in heat indices above 105 degrees for portions of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 1 PM through 8 PM.

- Quiet and dry weather will continue through today, with areawide highs in the 90s.

- Showers and storms are expected to return this weekend north and east, likely to continue into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The ArkLaTex looks to remain largely dry again today, and accordingly temperatures will be very warm again, taking aim at the middle to upper 90s. Based on recent trends, expecting sufficient combination of heat and humidity to result in another round of heat indices reaching and exceeding 105 degrees across southeast Oklahoma and adjacent zones of southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for the impacted counties from 1 PM through 8 PM today. Precautions should be taken to limit outdoor exposure, stay hydrated, and have access to air conditioning.

As the week draws to a close, the ArkLaTex will see little in the way of upper level steering in the wake of the departed trough, while upper level ridging amplifies to our west. As mentioned above, today looks to remain mostly dry across the region, though some afternoon sea breeze driven convection may just barely manage to make it into our southernmost zones.

By early Saturday into Sunday, ridging over the western CONUS will amplify, forming a closed high over the Four Corners region. Recent solutions are suggesting that as this ridge amplifies, an emerging trough over the Midwest will be tilted as it gradually stalls over the Appalachians, potentially forming a closed low which will retrograde towards the ArkLaTex. The westward extent of latitudinal amplification of this trough or low will determine ArkLaTex weather this weekend and into early next week. The latest consensus indicates that the trough will provide forcing upon which moisture impulses will develop and result in an unsettled pattern for the weekend and into early next week, with areawide rainfall chances at times, and the most likely repeated impacts across our northern and eastern zones. At this point, highs in the 90s look to remain entrenched in place, with the only potential exception being upper 80s in southern Arkansas with repeated rainfall and cloud cover. Lows will continue in the 70s throughout.

/26/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

For the 10/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period as mostly SKC will dominate this morning before a cu field returns toward midday into the afternoon along with some cirrus. Most terminals should remain free of any convection except for KLFK where some sea breeze activity may begin to encroach by mid to late afternoon so have included VCTS during the late day timeframe. Otherwise, look for breezy S/SW winds to prevail for much of this TAF period with speeds generally ranging between 6-12 kts with higher gusts possible during the afternoon hours.

/19/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 96 78 94 78 / 0 0 10 10 MLU 97 78 96 77 / 0 0 20 30 DEQ 96 75 94 74 / 0 0 10 40 TXK 97 78 96 77 / 0 0 10 30 ELD 96 77 95 75 / 0 0 20 40 TYR 97 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 10 LFK 95 77 94 76 / 10 0 30 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...None. OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112.


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