textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- A warm front will continue to lift back north from the coast this morning with advection fog moving into our southern zones just prior to daybreak.

- Above average temperatures are expected today, especially along and south of the warm front with afternoon highs ranging in the 70s to near 80 degrees.

- Deepening moisture behind the warm front will fuel widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday through Saturday night, aided by a potent upper-level trough and Pacific cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Despite the mild temperatures overnight through the morning hours, look for a quick surge in temperatures today as a warm front lifts back north across parts of the region through this afternoon. Some fog is expected initially this morning across our southern zones, possibly dense closer to Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country from Deep East TX into parts of Central LA. However, this will briefly delay the rapid warm-up as high temperatures will generally range through the 70s to near 80 degrees this afternoon despite a field of expanding cumulus clouds. Warmer overnight temperatures will follow compared to the past few nights as the warm front continues to lift farther NE into the region, holding lows in the 50s to low 60s under mostly cloudy to overcast skies. The increasing moisture advection along the warm front combined with weak isentropic lift in advance of an upper-level trough ejection across the Desert SW should result in some scattered convection beginning late Friday into Friday night across our NW zones generally along and north of I-30.

By Saturday morning, the upper-level trough will begin to shift NE into NM and eventually eastward across TX into our region late on Saturday into Saturday night. Initially, forcing will be rather weak across of our region throughout much of the day on Saturday, but then rapidly increase by late afternoon through the evening and overnight hours. This will result in showers and thunderstorms rapidly developing and expanding eastward throughout the afternoon across NE TX and SE OK, eventually spreading into NW LA and SW AR closer to sunset and farther east throughout the evening/overnight hours. In terms of of more precise timing, the later trend of more impactful weather arriving by late afternoon into the evening with respect to the strongest convection appears to still be the case. That doesn't preclude the chance for an occasional shower on and off earlier in the day/afternoon, but the period of most impactful thunderstorms and heavy rainfall has consistently trended later in the afternoon across our NW zones into the evening and overnight for most of South AR and North LA east of the I-49 corridor.

In terms of threats and impacts, a Marginal Risk of severe storms is now highlighted across the entire region. For now, a damaging wind threat still appears to be the primary severe weather threat as a linear storm complex/QLCS is expected to develop later in the event. However, very robust deep-layer and low-level shear profiles may support an isolated tornado and large hail potential as well. Likewise, training of thunderstorms will also present a heavy rain and flash flooding threat. This remains highlighted in the Day 2 ERO with a Marginal to Slight Risk across the region and a general range of 1-3 inches of rainfall expected. Heavy rainfall rates and localized higher amounts, especially in urban areas, may result in even more flash flooding concerns in spite of our ongoing drought conditions.

These threats will gradually begin to wane by late Saturday night into early Sunday morning as convection should largely exit much of the region by daybreak on Sunday. Some additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger through the first half of Sunday, but these are not expected to be very impactful. A dry weather pattern and a return to above normal temperatures will prevail for the early to middle part of next week.

/19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

For the 13/12z TAF update...Thought that the fog would have reached KLFK by now, although it has remained confined to areas south of the terminal as well as in portions of central Louisiana. That being said, I have removed mention of it as I don't think we will see it this morning. If it does manage to move into the area, I will handle it with an AMD. Otherwise, we will see light winds throughout this TAF period and FEW to SCT low clouds, BKN to OVC mid to high level clouds. Rain will begin moving into portions of the region late this evening, but right now I am not expecting any impact to our terminals till we move into Saturday. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Spotter activation may be needed on Saturday afternoon through Saturday night with the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 78 60 74 59 / 10 10 70 100 MLU 75 57 75 60 / 0 10 40 100 DEQ 70 53 67 53 / 10 40 100 100 TXK 75 59 72 58 / 10 30 90 100 ELD 75 54 73 56 / 0 20 70 100 TYR 79 60 71 56 / 10 20 100 90 GGG 79 58 72 57 / 10 20 90 100 LFK 79 59 73 56 / 10 10 90 100

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.