textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Near to below normal temperatures will continue to start the new work week before the return of above normal temperatures and higher humidities for late week into next weekend. - An extended period of dry conditions will continue through at least midweek, before the return of isolated to widely scattered convection for the remainder of the work week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The early morning satellite imagery indicate cirrus cigs persisting across the region, although drier elevated air has begun to mix E into N TX ahead of a shortwave trough slowly traversing ESE through W TX. Should gradually see these elevated cigs diminish across our NW zones by daybreak, and erode from W to E through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon elsewhere, as sfc ridging remains anchored over the Ozarks into Cntrl TX and the Lower MS Valley. Thus, stronger insolation should yield slightly warmer but still near to below normal temps Monday afternoon, with better radiational cooling expected across much of the region Monday night. Did bump up the NBM max temps 1-2 degrees Monday, which worked well with the max temp forecast observed earlier Sunday, while also lowering min temps 1-2 degrees Monday night to account for the extent of radiational cooling, which the NBM normally struggles with. Some thin cirrus may increase from the W late Monday night, before thickening through the day Tuesday in advance of the next approaching shortwave traversing the Srn Plains, with the increased cloud cover helping to maintain pleasant and seasonal temps over much of the area. The short term progs continue to advertise that the sfc ridging in place will be slightly reinforced by additional ridging building into the MS Valley Tuesday morning, thus maintaining an Erly low level flow and keeping the Gulf cut off.

Should start to see a more SE component to the low level flow resume Wednesday, with moisture advection commencing even with the Srn Plains shortwave passage over the region. Forcing with this trough may yield isolated afternoon convection that may sneak into Cntrl LA and Deep E TX, with the various progs now suggesting that isolated convection may persist beyond sunset as low level moisture advection continues to spread N through the remainder of N LA into Srn AR through the evening and overnight hours as the weak trough lingers overhead. Isolated to widely scattered convection will remain possible over more of the area Thursday and Friday, but this should be more diurnally driven given the warmer and more humid conditions expected as additional weak perturbations aloft traverse the region.

The ensembles suggest that the flow pattern should eventually transition to SW by sometime next weekend, although an amplifying upper ridge that will build from the Gulf across the Lower MS Valley into the Appalations should help to warm temps further with increasing subsidence beneath the ridge maintaining mostly dry conditions from the Lower MS Valley into the SE states. Much of the Four State Region may be in this "transition zone" with the deeper and more active SW flow off to the W across Wrn and Cntrl TX. A more Ewd shift of this ridge axis would obviously prime the potential for more convection over the area, while a more Wwd shift would result in much warmer and drier conditions. Thus, low confidence still exists this far out with regards to the pop forecast for the latter part of the extended period.

15

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this 24hr TAF period. High clouds are plentiful however but look for this cloud cover to thin as we move into the daytime hours on Monday. Look for NE winds sustained near 10mph with some higher gusts beginning 06/15z thru late afternoon.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Tuesday. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 48 73 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 49 72 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 40 72 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 47 73 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 43 72 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 47 73 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 47 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 49 72 45 75 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.