textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Above average warmth will continue Thursday, with highs in the lower 90s and mostly dry weather prevailing.

- A powerful cold front will cross the ArkLaTex Friday, bringing significantly cooler temperatures and much drier air.

- Very low humidity and gusty winds will produce elevated fire weather conditions Friday and likely into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Ridging over the Southeastern CONUS is keeping temperatures above average, while southerly onshore flow sustains unusually humid conditions, making this autumn week feel more like summer. This ripe and favorable environment has been producing a few small and widely scattered showers across the northwestern portions of the ArkLaTex today. This convection will continue into the afternoon and trend downwards this evening with the loss of daytime heating, while temperatures drop into the 60s by daybreak tomorrow.

Thursday will find the upper level high sliding offshore over the Atlantic, but southerly flow aloft and at the surface will maintain another warm afternoon of highs in the lower 90s with generally dry conditions areawide before the advertised pattern shift arrives. The trough and closed low responsible for the active weather pattern across the Plains and Ozarks will ultimately be absorbed into a deepening longwave trough plunging south from Canada by late Thursday into Friday. This amplified synoptic scale feature will swing a powerful cold front south and east down the central third of the CONUS, with guidance indicating fropa across the ArkLaTex through the course of the day Friday. Depending on the exact timing of the forward progression, high temperatures Friday will range considerably from the upper 60s northwest into the 80s south and east.

Along with significantly cooler temperatures in the form of morning lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to near 70 on Saturday, the airmass behind the front will be extremely dry, bringing relative humidity values down into the 20 to 30 percent range. Together with elevated winds up to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Fire Weather products are being considered and barring unexpected substantial changes to the forecast, will likely be issued within the next few forecast cycles.

Guidance suggests a warming trend through the weekend and into early next week as highs take aim at the upper 70s and lower 80s again, with dry weather continuing aside from a chance for scattered showers across our southern zones early next week.

/26/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

For the 14/18z TAF update...Radar imagery is starting show some returns near and around some of our terminals, mainly KGGG, KTYR, KTXK and KSHV, so I have introduced VCSH in there for them and will watch how things trend over the next few hours. FEW to BKN and some OVC skies will linger through the afternoon hours, becoming more widespread BKN tonight. Could see some patchy fog at times for a few terminals that could reduce visibility and bring some MVFR to IFR conditions at times towards morning. /33/

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A powerful cold front will cross area fire districts on Friday, with unseasonably cooler temperatures to follow. This front is not expected to produce any significant rainfall. The post-frontal airmass will also be very dry, dropping relative humidity values into the upper 20 to 30 percent range. North-northwest winds behind the front will be very breezy, maintaining sustained speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Together with critically dry fuels, these conditions merit a Fire Weather Watch for all area fire districts beginning Friday morning.

/26/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 66 90 66 76 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 64 93 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 65 91 55 69 / 10 0 10 0 TXK 67 92 62 71 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 64 93 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 68 89 62 70 / 10 0 10 0 GGG 66 90 61 73 / 10 0 10 0 LFK 65 90 65 78 / 0 0 20 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for OKZ077.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.