textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions will maintain elevated fire danger concerns through mid-week.

- An eventual pattern change is still expected by late week into the weekend with tropical Pacific and Gulf moisture increasing rain chances, especially over our western zones.

- Cooler temperatures are expected to follow by this weekend with a cold front expected to shift south and usher in the coolest air so far this fall season by the first full week of October.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Although well-advertised changes are still on the horizon, the short-term forecast will bring more of the same in terms of the heat with lower to mid 90s expected once again today. This trend will carry through mid-week as upper ridging continues to migrate eastward over the SE CONUS through the end of this week. Looking west, our attention is quickly focused on the surging moisture plume originating from will eventually become the remnants of Hurricane Polo currently impacting southern Baja. The abundant moisture from Polo will be absorbed by an eastward advancing upper trough traversing the Desert SW, eventually spreading east across Texas and the Southern Plains on Wednesday into Thursday.

The bulk of this moisture still looks to remain largely confined just to our W/NW across North and Central Texas into South Central Oklahoma. This will occur due in large part to the upper ridge holding firm across much the SE CONUS and SE Atlantic seaboard. However, the ridge placement will also support increasing Gulf moisture in addition to the Pacific moisture from Polo do expect rain chances to eventually expand eastward through late week into the weekend. This will also coincide with a cold front dropping southward into the region by this weekend, providing additional forcing for convection across the entire region. With that said, still anticipate rain totals being higher across our far western zones by Thursday into Friday before the cold front arrives and reinforces convection areawide for the weekend.

Rainfall totals are still likely to range widely from west to east through this weekend with as much as 1-3 inches across parts of NE Texas and SE Oklahoma while areas farther east in SW Arkansas and North Louisiana are likely to see less than an inch. These amounts are still very much in flux given forecast uncertainties on the strength and location of the ridge axis and just how far east the axis of heavy rainfall can shift before leaving a sharp gradient of much lighter amounts farther east. What is more certain at this point is that cooler air will gradually infiltrate the region from the north through the weekend and into early next week, possibly the coolest air so far this fall season by the first full week of October.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

For the 12z TAF cycle...seeing some AC across our airspace early this morning. This will be in and out during the day along with increasing thin cirrus from the north and west. Otherwise, look for some daytime cu today that may hang around through the evening hours. Model time/height cross sections are suggesting the possibility of MVFR ceilings closer to sunrise Wednesday Morning across our NE TX terminals. For now, only included MVFR ceilings at the LFK terminal. Winds will be from the ESE to SSE near or below 10kts with some higher gusts possible across our NE TX terminals from late morning and through the day Tuesday.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 95 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 95 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 94 68 94 70 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 94 71 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 95 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 95 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 96 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 93 71 92 73 / 0 0 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.