textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers are possible in the afternoon hours north of the I-30 corridor, increasing on coverage west and south Monday.

- Afternoon high temperatures will increase into the low to middle 90s through the first half of the week.

- More widespread rainfall chances return late in the week, possibly as soon as Wednesday, with flash flooding increasingly possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A combination of calming winds, partly to mostly clear skies and narrowing dew point depressions will result in patchy fog development overnight across southern zones, particularly deep east Texas to Toledo Bend Country, and according to some high res models, possibly further east into north central Louisiana.

The upper level ridging will amplify over the Plains, with its axis just east of the Front Range, establishing a northwest flow pattern aloft which will help steer a weak shortwave past the ArkLaTex. The associated moisture will kick up showers and storms which will push east across Oklahoma and into the Ozarks and Ouachitas during the morning. Guidance indicates a reasonable chance some scattered showers will reach McCurtain county, but continuation into the afternoon is less certain, with HRRR suggesting showers progress eastward but NBM keeping the region dry. Added PoPs into southwest Arkansas generally north of I-30 from 18Z to 00Z to account for this possibility. Another shortwave will produce a secondary wave of showers which may manage to barely reach our northeast Texas counties by daybreak Monday., continuing south and east into the day. Expanded and increased PoPs along and south of the I-20 corridor Monday afternoon, trending sharply downward after sunset.

Ridging will push eastward Tuesday, keeping the ArkLaTex dry and warm, as highs return to the lower to middle 90s areawide with lows inching back up into the 70s across our western zones. By Wednesday, the ridge will quickly lose definition and get shouldered off to the east ad a deepening trough plunges south over New Mexico and Texas. With this powerful forcing mechanism aloft and southerly flow funneling Gulf moisture into our Four State Region, a broad area of rainfall looks to arrive from the west Wednesday morning, with near areawide rainfall chances continuing through the end of the week and into next weekend. As mentioned last night, this wide period of middling precip chances effectively illustrates the continuing model uncertainty. The latest GFS introduces rain by lunchtime Wednesday, with the heaviest precip overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The ECMWF continues to be about a day slower, not introducing rain until Thursday, and saving the heaviest for Friday. The timing and mode of this activity will bear monitoring through the coming days. Discrepancies aside, the likelihood of rainfall heavy enough to produce flash flooding is increasing across the northwestern half of the ArkLaTex for the latter half of the week. Late week rainfall makes a dent in afternoon temperatures beyond Wednesday, while overnight lows drop back from the 70s into the middle to upper 60s.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Thin cirrus is moving out currently but will return later in the TAF period. Seeing some ceilings near 10kft near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor this morning with some elevated showers also associated with this cloud cover. Don't think this will impact any terminals however through the period. Looking down south, some MVFR VSBYs and a brief ceiling cannot be ruled out near the LFK terminal for the next couple hours and maybe a brief MVFR VSBY as well at the MLU terminal but otherwise, looking at another day of VFR conditions that should continue through tonight. Look for increasing and lowering AC ceilings from northwest to southeast across our airspace later this evening and especially during the overnight hours.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 95 70 93 70 / 0 0 20 0 MLU 93 66 92 65 / 0 0 20 0 DEQ 92 64 90 64 / 20 10 10 0 TXK 94 68 91 68 / 20 0 10 0 ELD 93 64 91 63 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 95 72 93 72 / 0 10 20 0 GGG 97 70 95 69 / 0 0 20 0 LFK 93 70 92 70 / 0 0 20 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.