textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- A couple of isolated storms may develop across South Central Arkansas southward into Northeast and Central Louisiana this evening and tonight. A severe storm capable of producing damaging winds cannot be ruled out, especially through midnight.

- A backdoor cold front will bring chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms to area, especially south of a line from Mineola TX, to Shreveport, to Monroe LA, Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night.

- Daytime high temperatures will cool back down into the 80s for the latter half of the week, but widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to much of the forecast area Saturday and Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 531 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The weak cap observed on the 18z KSHV raob has eroded and spotty showers and thunderstorms are rapidly developing, especially across Louisiana south of Interstate 20. Much of this activity is diurnally-driven and should gradually weaken during the evening hours, but some increase in coverage is still likely before then. Updated the grids to extend PoPs farther west between now and 06z tonight to account for this activity.

Nuttall

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A weak upper-level ridge remains over the Central CONUS providing subsidence and keeping above-normal temperatures in place today. An east-west oriented outflow boundary is evident on visible satellite imagery moving just south of the Arkansas/Louisiana state line as of 18z. Most of the model guidance has been trying to develop convection along this outflow boundary, but the 18z KSHV raob shows weak capping remains over the region. However, we're only a couple of degrees shy of reaching our convective temperature with at least two or three hours of diurnal heating to go. Once the cap fully erodes, the outflow boundary should provide a focus for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Central Louisiana this afternoon and evening. In addition, another outflow boundary moving south-southwest across Arkansas and Northern Mississippi may allow for more convection to develop and move into the forecast area this evening and into tonight. Storms should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity during the night as diurnal instability wanes. However, any storms that develop will have the potential to become severe with a damaging wind threat, as the environment is quite supportive of downbursts/microbursts.

A backdoor cold front will move across the area during the day Tuesday. Forcing along the front is not expected to be overly strong, but a weak perturbation rotating around the upper ridge should provide enough ascent for a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the area southwest of a line from Broken Bow, to Texarkana, to Monroe. The best rain chances Tuesday should be south of Interstate 20 in Louisiana and East Texas where moisture availability and instability will be greatest and where the front's arrival will be latest. Shear profiles will be very weak but gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms and any repeated rounds of heavy downpours could result in an isolated flash flood threat. Any convection should exit to the south of the forecast area near or just after midnight Wednesday morning as the front also moves completely south of our area.

Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front Wednesday through Sunday. Daytime highs should remain in the 80s for most locations through the weekend before a gradual warming trend begins next week. Late this week and into the weekend, upper ridging will become established over the Northern Gulf while a surface ridge builds off the Carolinas. Deep southerly flow will bring rich stream of moisture back into the area. A series of weak shortwave troughs moving northeast across the Southern High Plains will bring rain chances back to the entire area Friday through Sunday. The difficulty in this pattern is the lack of any surface front or focus mechanism to organize convective development. Thus, confidence is relatively high that we'll have showers and thunderstorms, but the exact placement of the rain chances is difficult to predict at this time range. Medium range guidance continues to broad brush widespread PoPs, which is about the best play for now. However, greatest convective coverage should generally be during the afternoon and early evening with peak diurnal instability, and the best rain chances should generally be across Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas vertical ascent will be greatest due to closer proximity to the upper troughs.

Nuttall

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, daytime heating will linger our convection for a couple of hrs and a line of TS movg S/SW over AR is associated with a backdoor fropa and may be sustained through the night that will bear watching. Also sea breeze push is approaching both KLFK and KMLU at this time, but more uncertain once sun sets. So suffice to say amendments will be forth coming with this uptick in convective action during this TAF cycle. SFC winds will vary and gust near downpours and prevail NE by daybreak for many sites increasing during the afternoon to 10 to 15KT. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

While an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through tonight, spotter activation is not likely at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 75 94 71 88 / 20 20 20 0 MLU 74 91 70 86 / 30 30 10 10 DEQ 72 91 66 85 / 10 20 0 0 TXK 73 94 68 88 / 20 10 0 0 ELD 72 89 66 84 / 30 10 0 0 TYR 74 96 72 89 / 20 30 30 0 GGG 74 95 71 88 / 20 30 30 0 LFK 74 94 72 89 / 20 40 30 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.