textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1159 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Breezy winds, dry air, dry soils, and mainly the lower RH values will keep elevated fire concerns today.

- Rain chances return to the area by Saturday night and look to linger into Monday morning.

- A warming trend will begin early next week and continue into at least the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Upper-air pattern this morning features northwest flow aloft thanks to high pressure centered over New Mexico and a low pressure system across the northeast CONUS. Meanwhile, at the surface, our secondary cool front appears to have stalled out over our area, but will continue to push southward into Friday. This will bring a better push of some cooler air to the area for the weekend. An upper-level disturbance will begin moving into the southwest CONUS today, gradually pushing towards our area. It should arrive Saturday night into Sunday. Models are in pretty good agreement that we should start to see some rain chances return to the area by Saturday night into Sunday morning, lingering through the day Sunday, and then moving out by Monday morning. Right now it appears the greatest rainfall amounts will be across our east Texas counties, with some lower amounts spilling over into Louisiana. That being said, it doesn't look like a soaker by any means.

Rain ends by Monday morning and high pressure begins to build back into the area. Tis the season of low pressure back to high pressure and then back to low pressure. This building high pressure will be responsible for a warming trend as we head into the middle of next week and possibly persisting into next weekend, which would break our streak of cooler weekends that we have all enjoyed. A larger trough looks to begin digging southward through the western CONUS during the end of the period, which will be something worth keeping our eye on. /33/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR as cool surface high pressure continues to spread southward. Expect N/NE winds 6-10G16KT today, with 5KT or less overnight as we shift to Easterly for the weekend and Monday. Our skies will increase mid and high clouds during Saturday with widespread rain showers and isold TS Sunday into early Monday, likely including some IFR/MVFR conditions. /24/

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1157 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A Fire Danger Statement is in effect today from 10 AM to 6 PM, as min RH values between 30 to 35%, North-Northwest wind gusts up to 25 mph, and critically to extremely dry fuels will create elevated wildfire conditions. Outdoor burning and activities that involve open sparks or flames are discouraged. Please report all wildfires to local law enforcement as soon as possible. /20/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1159 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 64 41 60 44 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 62 35 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 63 33 58 35 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 60 37 58 41 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 61 32 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 69 44 63 45 / 0 0 0 40 GGG 66 41 61 43 / 0 0 0 30 LFK 72 44 64 45 / 0 0 0 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.