textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Fire danger will continue across the Ark-La-Tx during through the rest of day, especially across the Ark-La-Miss. Lighter winds on Sunday will reduce the fire danger some, in comparison to Saturday.

- Break out the jackets and sweatshirts for Sunday and Monday mornings!

- Cooler than average temperatures this weekend will be followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout and a continued background fire weather threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

A seasonably cool, continental air mass continues to build south into the Four State region today with gusty northeast winds most concentrated in the Arklamiss and toward Central LA. It is in these areas where the Red Flag Warning will be maintained through 7 PM CDT today due to the juxtaposition of wind gusts of 20 to 25, minimum RH values of 30 to 35 percent, and very dry grass and tree fuels. This will promote an environment capable of wildfire spread. Fortunately, these winds will slacken a good deal overnight and will be much lighter tomorrow as the low level high pressure ridge aligns from Central TX northeast to the Ohio Valley. That said, we will still maintain a general Fire Danger Statement going into tomorrow to highlight the fire concern given the very dry air mass in areas of drought and dry grasses and stressed trees. Highs will mainly range from 68 to 73 this afternoon with extremely good radiational cooling conditions tonight bringing lows down into the mid 40s south to upper 30s north by daybreak Sunday morning. Extremely light frost cannot be absolutely ruled out in typically colder and sheltered valleys in far northern zones late tonight, but the potential for this to happen in any one spot is generally too low to consider a Frost Advisory. The air mass in place will begin modifying tomorrow with only a few higher clouds and temperatures peaking in the low to mid 70s.

The gradual warming trend commencing tomorrow will be a major theme as we head through next week. The ridging aloft, which has been a staple of the past few months and contributing to the regional drought, will build across the area - in between a general trough over the western CONUS and troughing over the Eastern Seaboard. Expect highs around 80 by Tuesday and to a range of 85 to 90 degrees by Thursday and Friday, which is again well above normal for the time of year. Interestingly, low temperatures will not rebound quite as quickly as highs due to many nights of decent to great radiational cooling conditions and only a slow recovery of low level moisture. Lows will be primarily in the 40s Sunday night and moderating to mainly the 50s by Thursday and Friday nights. Unfortunately, the mentioned lack of low level moisture recovery this coming week will contributing to worsening drought and afternoon RH values mainly in the 20 to 30 percent range most days, which will in turn keep the daily wildfire threat going. At least winds are expected to remain relatively light over this period and this will somewhat mitigate a more significant wildfire concern.

There is some low end hope that the trough energy out west early next week may eventually manifest in a disturbance or two glancing our western zones by next weekend and this could, in turn, get some rain opportunities in those areas. But it is important to emphasize that the potential for a wetter pattern to develop over the entire region is quite low through the next 7 to 10 days. /50/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

For the 17/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail across our airspace with mostly SKC aside from some very sparse coverage of cirrus across our western terminals and some cu likewise over the east toward KELD and KMLU. Otherwise, expect SKC to dominate after 18/00Z with high pressure in control and N/NE winds decoupling to around 5 kts or less. Winds veer slightly more E/NE on Sunday with speeds still holding near 5 kts throughout the morning hours.

/19/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Spotter activation may be needed through the rest of the day in the event of wildfire development.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 46 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 44 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 39 75 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 43 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 40 74 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 46 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 44 72 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 47 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ005-006-013- 014-018>022.

OK...None. TX...None.