textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- A backdoor cold front will bring chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms to area, especially south of a line from Mineola TX, to Shreveport, to Monroe LA, Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night.

- Daytime high temperatures will cool back down into the 80s for the latter half of the week, but widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to much of the forecast area Saturday and Sunday.

- Temperatures are likely to climb back into the lower 90s by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A weak ridge is still in place over much of the Central CONUS at the time of writing that will work to suppress most convection. Even with this suppression, a backdooring cold front could act as a lifting mechanism for some scattered showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and into the overnight hours. Exact locations are unknown due to model disagreements and possible lingering outflow boundary interactions. However, the greatest chance will be generally along and south of I-20. QPF is generally less than half an inch with these showers. But slow moving or training showers could lead to isolated flooding concerns in places. Any rain that gets going should exit our southern zones just before midnight Tuesday night.

Slightly cooler air will follow the cold front's exit on Wednesday, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures should stay in this range through the rest of the week despite the strengthening upper-level ridge. This is partially due to a region of sfc high pressure in the Mid Atlantic, bringing easterly sfc winds instead of the typical southerlies. This sfc high is expected to push into the Atlantic late this week and shift winds southerly again, which will kickstart moisture advection and warming temperatures going into next week.

At the same time as this wind shift, the upper-level ridge that has been at the center of our forecast over recent days will give way to southwest flow. Several perturbations are likely to move downstream and bring multiple rounds of showers to the Ark-La-Tx Friday through Sunday. Confidence is fairly high that there will be showers, but exact locations are unknown thanks to long-range model uncertainty. Rain chances remain broad right now for this reason. Assuming that models can figure out this pattern, we should be able to narrow down more specifics in the coming days.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

For the 02/06z TAF Period...A decaying line of storms has moved to around the Louisiana/Arkansas state line. A few isolated storms could still be possible overnight, so decided to add VCTS at both KELD/KMLU until about 09z. Will amend if needed. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions overnight. Models still suggest a line of storms will develop along a cool front during the TAF period, but timing and intensity among the progs hasn't been great. Because of that, we went with VCTS during the afternoon hours, as that seems to be the best guess on when the front will push across the region. Behind the front, winds will become northeasterly and VFR conditions will return. /20/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

While an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through tonight, spotter activation is not likely at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 71 88 70 87 / 20 0 0 10 MLU 70 86 68 87 / 10 10 0 10 DEQ 66 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 20 TXK 68 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 20 ELD 66 84 65 85 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 72 89 70 89 / 30 0 10 20 GGG 71 88 70 88 / 30 0 0 20 LFK 72 89 70 88 / 30 20 20 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.