textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Heat index values will approach or briefly exceed 105 degrees through the coming afternoons. Sensitive groups should take necessary precautions and limit outdoor exposure.

- Showers and storms will return from the north overnight, continuing along and north of I-20 tomorrow. Damaging wind gusts and flooding rains will be possible.

- More widespread rainfall will return Sunday and continue into early next week, leading to a more widespread risk of flash flooding developing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Another very warm and humid afternoon is in store across the ArkLaTex. As of the writing of this discussion, this afternoon's heat indices look to max out largely in the 99 to 104 degree range. That said, with limited mixing out of dew points, reinforced by Gulf moisture on elevated south winds, a few sites reaching heat indices of 105 degrees is not out of the question, particularly in deep east Texas. These maxima should last only for an hour or two, thus not meeting duration or coverage to justify issuing a Heat Advisory. All the same, sensitive groups and their caretakers are encouraged to take necessary precautions to limit outdoor exposure, and have adequate relief from the heat available.

Model guidance continues to suggest a line of showers and storms sweeping south across the Ozarks this evening will arrive in the northern ArkLaTex around midnight, and progress southward towards I- 20 as daybreak approaches. Solutions continue to indicate that if this line retains its organizational structure, several storms may become severe. Additionally, training torrential rainfall may result in a scattered flash flooding threat. Showers and storms look to continue along and north of the I-20 corridor through Friday afternoon, dissipating by evening. The ECMWF hints at widespread rain across Arkansas through Saturday, some of which may clip our northeasternmost counties, but otherwise, Saturday looks to remain quiet, dry and hot.

The upper level high which has dominated this week and brought this stubborn heat to the ArkLaTex will start to break down somewhat as this week concludes. While not collapsing entirely, the northern side of the high looks to contract and lose definition enough to open the door to disturbances such as tonight's complex of storms. The weekend looks to see a retrograding as the high falls apart and reorganizes itself over the desert southwest and northern Mexico, setting up a northwest flow pattern which will start to funnel forcing mechanisms into our moisture rich environment beginning Sunday and continuing into early next week.

The first such round of rainfall is poised to arrive from the north overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, becoming more widespread through the day Sunday, with significant rainfall chances continuing solidly through Monday. Recent long range guidance has been wavering back and forth on when we will begin to dry out, which looks to be early Wednesday north, with lingering chances of showers and storms south, bearing in mind the latitude for this to change again. In the meanwhile a slight risk for flash flooding is in place areawide Sunday, continuing into Monday for our southeastern zones. While the ridge holds together, and rainfall coverage remains scattered, afternoon highs still look to reach the low to middle 90s through the weekend, before persistent widespread rains early next week return highs to the 80s Monday and Tuesday, while morning lows trend from the middle to upper 70s back into the lower 70s and upper 60s.

/26/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Sites are returning to VFR with some gusty winds out of the southwest expected to continue through the afternoon. Winds will calm back down this evening as the pressure gradient weakens overnight. MVFR and some IFR cigs are likely to develop from the southwest soon after midnight and cover most sites by daybreak. There is some uncertainty on how far northeast these cigs will spread, so some adjustments could be made in the next TAF package. Not expecting any widespread fog development tonight and clouds should lift and scatter through the morning. There is a line of showers and thunderstorms that should be moving in from the northwest and could bring VCTS to KTXK as early as 13/07z. Briefly worsening conditions are expected with any showers that make it over any sites through the remainder of the period. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Spotter activation may be needed late overnight tonight in southeast Oklahoma and adjacent sections of southwest Arkansas.

/26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 77 94 77 95 / 10 10 10 0 MLU 77 94 76 95 / 0 10 10 10 DEQ 76 88 74 92 / 50 60 10 10 TXK 78 93 77 97 / 30 40 10 0 ELD 77 91 75 93 / 10 20 10 10 TYR 77 94 77 95 / 10 20 0 0 GGG 77 95 76 95 / 10 20 0 0 LFK 76 95 75 95 / 0 10 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.