textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Warm temperatures will continue Sunday and into the upcoming work week.

- We continue to monitor a change in the upper level weather pattern that will bring with it much needed rain chances to our forecast in the middle and later half of the work week. Message 2

- Unfortunately with those rain chances will come the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms, at least by Wednesday across the northwest half our our region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Another beautiful day across the Four State Region and with the returning southeast winds, temperatures responded with highs ranging from near 80 to the middle 80s across all areas. Warm air advection and returning low level moisture advection will begin overnight and there are some indications of some low level stratus and/or advection fog coming northward from SE TX and SW LA overnight so added this possibility through early morning Sunday near and mainly south of the I-20 Corridor. Otherwise, kept slight chance of showers in the forecast across our far northern zones Tonight through Sunday Night and again, this would be due to weak upper forcing in WNW flow aloft. Southerly winds again for Sunday, maybe a little stronger than what we saw Today but a second day of southerly winds should result in slightly higher afternoon minimum relative humidity values which will keep the wildfire threat level elevated for Sunday.

Flat upper ridging to shift from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains and Lower Miss Valley on Monday into Tuesday as an upper level trough takes shape across the Intermountain West. This is the pattern change we have been talking about for the last several forecast cycles, one that will keep us on the warm side through the upcoming work week but will also introduce rain chances to our region beginning Wednesday and continuing through the upcoming weekend. The above mentioned trough fills before ejecting out into mainly the Central Plains Tue Night into Wed. There will be enough of a positive tilt associated with the ejecting trough with just enough forcing across our northwest half to institute a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms across our northwest half Wed Aftn/Night. Think the key to this likelihood would be the shortwave helping to nudge a cold front/dryline merger our way during the day Wed and it's this feature which would provide the necessary surface forcing for sfc based convective initiation with the aid of instability. ECMWF Ensembles have been more in-line with SPC's thinking of including our northwest region in this severe threat on Wed compared to the GFS Ensembles which are more to our north and west so there is still some uncertainty to this probability by midweek.

The upper trough reloads for Thu into Friday and into the upcoming weekend which will keep our region in deep southwesterly flow aloft through the end of the forecast period and beyond. The key to this flow will be embedded disturbances moving our way to help generate the kind of forcing necessary for showers and thunderstorms because broad-scale forcing will remain locked out west with the longwave trough which will not begin to eject out of the Desert Southwest until well beyond this 7-day forecast period.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Low cigs are expected to develop over the southern half of the airspace over the next 6 hours, leaving Deep East TX terminals and KSHV in LIFR to MVFR conditions by daybreak. These terminals continue to be the locations with the greatest confidence in fog development, but the amount of visibility due to the fog stays inconsistent among recent guidance. Low ceilings should clear through the morning on Sunday, with KTYR likely being the first thanks to higher winds. The afternoon will stay VFR with mostly clear skies and southerly/southeasterly winds around 5-10 kts until winds drop slightly to finish out the period.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Spotter activation is still not expected through the upcoming weekend. However, please continue to relay information on wildfire activity across the Four-State area, to help our first responders protect life and property.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 83 55 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 82 53 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 80 51 80 52 / 10 20 10 0 TXK 83 57 83 60 / 10 10 10 0 ELD 81 53 82 55 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 83 55 83 61 / 10 0 10 0 GGG 83 53 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 82 55 83 59 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.