textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 111 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- The break in convection will likely come to an end for much of the region by this afternoon as warm and unstable air in place initiate more showers and storms with a low-end severe risk.

- The threat of severe weather will increase by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night ahead of an advancing cold front and greater forcing aloft.

- The cold front will slowly ease south through the region by mid week but the upper flow pattern will maintain unsettled weather with a late week trough ejecting eastward from the Desert SW.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The persistent warm and moist air advection regime remains firmly entrenched across the entire region as southerly flow continues to increase with sfc cyclogenesis ongoing across the Southern/Central Plains. Looking aloft, an expansive ridge to our SW across Mexico continues to deflect most of the upper-level energy for convection to our N/NW. With that said, renewed convection is still possible across our region later today with sfc dew points in the lower 70s and diurnal heating combining to initiate scattered showers and storms. Although severe weather is likely given the lack of upper forcing, a few strong storms could manifest in this environment along with an isolated severe storm or two during the peak of afternoon instability. If this were to occur, large hail would be the most likely threat with any severe storms while damaging wind gusts or even a brief tornado appear much less likely as noted in the SPC Day 1 convective outlook. Some of this convection could linger into the evening hours before mostly diminishing overnight.

Moving into Tuesday and especially Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, a greater threat of severe weather is expected over much of the region as a cold front approaches and begins interacting with a shortwave traversing from TX aross the Middle Red River Valley. Expect rapid convective initiation to occur by early afternoon off to our west before quickly shifting into our W/NW zones by mid to late afternoon and continuing southeastward through the evening. Sfc-based CAPE values in the 3000-4000 J/kg range, mid-level lapse rates around 8-9C/km, and modest deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorms across much of our region during this late Tuesday through Tuesday night timeframe, especially near and north of I-20 where SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk. All severe modes/threats are possible, but damaging wind gusts and large hail appear to be primary at this time.

The severe threat should begin to gradually wind down just after midnight with residual convection still possible, especially south of I-20 with the cold front slowly advancing southward. The front may not completely clear the region by mid week, resulting in some additional convection lingering through Wednesday and Thursday as the next upper trough begins to lift across the Desert SW. This trough will contribute to more widespread convection by the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend before ejecting east of the region by Saturday night into Sunday. Much cooler and drier air will spill in behind the departing trough and cold front with below normal temperatures expected for early May. Rainfall totals over the next 7 days still appear to generally range from 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts possible through next weekend.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 111 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

For the 27/06z TAFs, IFR ceilings are quickly spreading northward across East Texas and Northern Louisiana and should affect all TAF sites prior to daybreak. After sunrise, SSW surface winds will increase in speed area to between 10 and 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts, which should lead to a slow improvement in ceilings. However, VFR conditions may not return until near or shortly after 27/20z. Best chances for convection are expected to be across SE OK, NE TX, and SW AR after 27/21z, with KTXK and KELD being the most likely sites to be affected. However, some model guidance suggests showers and thunderstorms may develop elsewhere across the area but confidence is currently low. For now, a mention of VCTS was included only at KTXK late in the period.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 111 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed until late in the day on Tuesday.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 89 72 88 69 / 40 30 40 60 MLU 90 71 88 69 / 40 40 50 60 DEQ 86 64 81 60 / 40 40 80 80 TXK 89 70 85 66 / 40 40 70 80 ELD 87 66 85 64 / 50 50 60 80 TYR 88 71 87 69 / 30 20 40 50 GGG 88 70 88 68 / 30 30 40 50 LFK 90 72 91 70 / 30 20 20 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.