textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Dry conditions and near normal highs expected for Thursday ahead of increasing moisture through Friday.

- Rain showers will accompany the increasing moisture as the cold arctic airmass spills southward, allowing for a transition to a wintry mix sometime late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

- Confidence continues to increase in a multi-day winter weather event with impacts extending across the Four State Region, followed by extremely cold temperatures into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The rainfall from earlier in the day has just about wrapped up as we head into a foggy and cooler overnight across the Four State Region. Expect for areas of patchy fog, including some areas of patchy dense fog as we head through daybreak. This should dissipate through the morning, with a mostly cloudy sky expected through the afternoon. Highs will again approach near seasonal values for at least one more day before the influence of the highly anticipated arctic airmass works south into the weekend.

For the most part, and with confidence increasing thanks recent deterministic and ensemble support, daytime Friday is trending drier when compared to previous solutions. To put into perspective, PWAT values for the I-49 corridor don't come close to one inch until at least midnight Friday. That being said, can't rule a few rain showers through the day on Friday ahead of the main push of moisture closer to the evening and towards midnight as the colder airmass begins to intercept the aforementioned Pacific and Gulf moisture extending across the south.

As we turn our attention to the weekend winter weather event, we must first start with some changes in the last 24 hours. First, ensemble presentation across an array of solutions has favored a tug north when compared to previous model output. This comes from a notable weakening of a previously stronger shortwave kick feature that would allow the aforementioned colder airmass to spill further south into the CONUS. In return, and this is especially important for interests along and south of the I-20 corridor, is that the arrival of sub-freezing temperatures continues to delay further into the early Saturday morning and the daybreak timeframe versus the evening and Friday night solutions of a few days ago. What this could mean is that the onset of the precip type transition may be later, with the chance that some areas across the far southern counties and parishes of the FA may see very little in the form of winter precip if, and only if, trends continue down this route.

From a forecast standpoint, confidence in the model output should gradually increase as recon of the Baja low feature from the 53rd WRS of the USAF both yesterday and later today is assimilated into the model guidance. At the same time, recon in the Gulf later today via the NOAA Hurricane Hunter team will do the same. While this won't give us the magic answers to the outcome of this event, this should help improve forecaster confidence by this time tomorrow. Meanwhile, given that we are now entering the medium phase of the forecast, higher resolution models that have the ability to handle these airmasses, can often shed light solutions that promote higher confidence.

In the meantime, and buying that the current state of the guidance were to verify, a series of mixed winter precip will prevail through the weekend, with a clash of freezing rain and sleet as a warm nose aloft will exist. What does develop is progged to exit the region sometime Sunday afternoon, though there are some ensemble members (primarily outliers at this time) that suggest a later departure. The wake of the precip, a series of bitterly cold nights are expected across the region as lows fall into the single digits and low teens by Monday morning, with a similar appearance Tuesday morning. With highs expected to climb back above freezing as early as Monday afternoon for some, and especially Tuesday, we should see some melting of what materializes here locally.

Today and early Friday will be the last days to complete winter weather preparations ahead of the onset of precip overnight Friday and into Saturday. By Saturday, impacts to travel are expected with the arrival of sleet and freezing rain through the day.

RK

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

For the 22/06z TAF update...Surface observations are showing fairly widespread IFR to LIFR conditions for most terminals late this evening due to some low ceilings and limited visibility with some fog that has developed. Honestly, I don't see much in the way of improvement during the overnight hours. We will see moments where conditions improve and then drop again but overall I am carrying widespread IFR or lower through the night, improving some towards the end of the period. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1259 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through at least Thursday. /53/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 57 43 50 28 / 0 20 30 80 MLU 55 43 49 27 / 10 20 20 50 DEQ 53 34 43 19 / 0 10 40 90 TXK 54 38 45 22 / 0 10 40 90 ELD 53 35 44 19 / 0 10 30 80 TYR 59 44 50 27 / 0 10 50 90 GGG 58 42 50 26 / 0 20 40 90 LFK 62 50 57 34 / 0 10 30 70

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.