textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- The warming trend continues for this long weekend with even warmer readings for Columbus day an on through midweek.

- The good news is we now have much better long term model agreement on the big cold front. Even a little rain for good measure with our first morning chills on the way next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Upper 80s and lower 90s as we approach daily maximums on this beautiful Sunday afternoon. The S/SW winds have been in place all day and will continue off the Gulf of America for the bulk of the new week. This will edge our morning lows back above averages, while highs maintain more of a late summer climate. We are on the back side of the tropical cyclone's wake air mass. A 1020mb surface air mass was observed sitting over New Orleans International Airport (MSY) at noon kick-off time today, and that was most of what was worth watching for today from down I-49. Congrats to one of the big 3 so far this season.

This air mass will sprawl out while moving eastward with a little deeper moisture lifting inland for a weak disturbance on Tuesday. This will bring a good chance for some rainfall, mainly over our deep east counties and Toledo Bend Country in W LA. However, the QPF is only for hundreths of an inch to maybe an isolated tenth or so. And the outlook for rainfall doesn't get much better with a strong cold front arriving this Friday. Timing for rainfall has improved a bit arriving in our Parishes later in the day, but we may see a tenth or two in the I-30 corridor which will have the late day heating on Thursday bolstering the activity into the overnight hours. The models may improve on QPF next run as the slower timing favors more of our area. However, the main issue is that the core upper low in the long wave lifts quickly off the front range on Thursday, leaving a low stirring over Baja. This appears to be storing all that needed Pacific moisture for our rains on this frontal passage.

So overall, little change to notice aside from the warm up in the mornings through midweek. The GFS has been consistent on the huge late week air mass and now the ECMWF has finally come to a sweater weather party with a 1042mb surface high pressure. Highs in the 70s, say wear a button down for ease of removal, but the lows will see widespread upper 40s and lower 50s for a couple of days before warming back into the 60s. The CPC 8 to 14 day outlook is posted on our home page at weather.gov/shv and looks to keep us above average on temperatures. The rainfall outlook is fair at best as the Super El Nino continues on "simmer" for now. The CPC continues the El Nino advisory with expectations for a strong to very strong event during this Winter season. /24/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 524 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR conditions linger into the new week with an area of surface high pressure near KMSY. S/SW winds will become light or calm after sunset and resume by mid morning at 5-15 KT. Partly cloudy skies will continue with cirrus, but by Tuesday, the lower levels muster up enough moisture for some convection. However, this may only affect KLFK based on current model output. Summer rolls on for mid to late week with more shwrs possible by Friday as a strong fropa brings NW winds. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 64 92 72 93 / 0 0 0 20 MLU 61 94 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 60 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 63 92 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 61 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 65 91 74 93 / 0 0 0 30 GGG 63 92 72 94 / 0 0 0 30 LFK 63 91 72 91 / 0 0 10 60

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.