textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers are possible in the afternoon hours north of the I-30 corridor, increasing in coverage west and south Monday.

- Afternoon high temperatures will increase into the low to middle 90s through the first half of the week.

- More widespread rainfall chances return late in the week, possibly as soon as Wednesday, with flash flooding increasingly possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Surface ridge across the region to maintain light winds through Monday. Aloft, northwest flow to prevail ahead of a building ridge that will drive afternoon high temperatures back into the mid 90s through midweek. A few showers and storms may be possible across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma this afternoon and into east Texas and north Louisiana on Monday.

By Tuesday, the upper-ridge will be firmly established across the ArkLaTex bringing the driest and hottest day of the forecast period with highs in the mid 90s. At the surface, southerly winds will increase as the surface high retreats northeast, bringing with it increased gulf moisture.

From midweek onward, major global models still have failed to come into agreement regarding the timing of an advertised heavy rainfall event resulting from the remnants of a tropical system in the Pacific becoming absorbed by the southern stream jet. The GFS seems to be the most aggressive with stalling a line of convection across ArkLaTex Wednesday night, with rain continuing into Thursday. With this scenario, a flash flood threat would be possible due to the compact soils and the potential for up to 3 inch rainfall totals across mainly east and northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma during this time period. The European model, unfortunately stalls the convection across central Texas during this same time frame. As these two forecast models come into agreement, the mid to long term forecast is prone to further adjustments.

Although rain chances could continue into Friday, conditions are forecast to improve throughout the day with rainfall rates expected to be rather light. Otherwise, daytime temperatures from Wednesday onward will average in the 80s. /05/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions will continue across much of the region through the 27/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has developed across Lower E TX/N LA/extreme Srn AR early this afternoon, with additional areas of AC cigs over NE TX/SE OK/SW AR expected to gradually shift SE across the region through the afternoon/evening. The cu field should mostly diminish around 00Z Monday, although some cu may redevelop this evening/overnight across portions of E TX/Wrn LA/extreme SW AR. AC cigs over Ern OK/much of AR should also shift SE into the region this evening/overnight, persisting through much of Monday morning before thinning. Some patchy FG may also develop by or just before daybreak across portions of Deep E TX where any AC should be thinner, possibly affecting LFK through mid-morning before lifting. A scattered stratocu field should begin to develop by 15-16Z across E TX/Wrn LA, before a wedge of drier air begins to gradually erode the cu field from E to W by late morning into the afternoon. Mostly VRB winds around 5kts this afternoon will become Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 70 93 70 95 / 0 20 0 0 MLU 66 92 65 95 / 0 20 0 0 DEQ 64 90 64 93 / 10 10 0 0 TXK 68 91 68 94 / 0 10 0 0 ELD 64 91 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 72 93 72 94 / 10 20 0 0 GGG 70 95 69 96 / 0 20 0 0 LFK 70 92 70 91 / 0 20 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.