textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Beautiful Weekend weather is on tap across the entire Four State Region as we exit February and enter the month of March with temperatures in the 80s across most locations for daytime highs.

- We will be looking at a pattern shift as we enter the upcoming work week. An upper level pattern that will become more conducive for showers and thunderstorms.

- When you mention thunderstorms during the month of March, of course that means potential severe weather which will be a possibility by the middle and later half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Sfc ridging will shift east of our region on Saturday...allowing for the return of southeasterly winds and with those winds, warmer temperatures. Would not be surprised to see high temperatures in the middle 80s in a few locations both Saturday and Sunday as low level warm air advection will be underway with moisture advection not returning until Saturday Night into Sunday. Sunday will be the breezier of the two days with lower afternoon relative humidity occurring on Saturday. Given how dry fuels are currently, not to mention at least two ongoing wildfires being battled across NE TX, this weekend's wildfire threat level will not necessarily be excessive but at least elevated given the above forecasted conditions.

As we have been advertising the last several days, still carrying small pops in the forecast across our far northern zones for Sat Night thru Sun Night. This due in part to weak forcing observed in WNW flow aloft that may help to generate some isolated showers or a thunderstorm or two but this has nothing to do with the expected upper level pattern shift we will be looking at next week.

Speaking of next week and that pattern shift, weak upper ridging will move ovhd on Monday as an upper level trough emerges across the Intermountain West. This trough will eject out into mainly the Central Plains as the above mentioned ridge will remain anchored across the Southeast CONUS which should keep much of the forcing in association with this ejecting trough to our north and west. SPC has outlooked our far northwest zones in a 15% probability of severe thunderstorms for next Wed/Wed Night and this is based in part to the upper level trough mentioned above and an associated cold front/dryline merger that is fcst to push eastward...approaching the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX into SE OK and perhaps...SW AR during this timeframe. The closer this boundary moves into our region by the middle part of next week, the more likely we are to be under the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, not to mention, excessive heavy rainfall.

The above mentioned features should retreat back north for late next week, as we wait for the trough across the southwest CONUS to reload with yet another disturbance which will plague our forecast for Friday and into the first full weekend of March. Needless to say, this forecast will start to become very unsettled by the middle of next week and will continue well past this 7-day forecast package.

13

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

For the 28/12Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the course of this forecast period. SCT mid to high level clouds will be the primary features of note throughout, remaining elevated and punctuating areas of otherwise clear skies. Guidance hints at lowering CIGs towards the tail end of this forecast period, but not yet bringing our prevailing groups out of VFR conditions. South by southeast winds will pick up through the morning to maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 mph with a few gusts of up to 15 mph across east Texas airspace.

/26/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Spotter activation is still not expected through the upcoming weekend. However, please continue to relay information on wildfire activity across the Four-State area, to help our first responders protect life and property.

13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 82 56 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 80 52 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 80 52 78 47 / 10 20 20 20 TXK 81 57 81 53 / 0 10 10 10 ELD 80 52 78 50 / 0 10 0 0 TYR 82 57 83 56 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 82 55 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 82 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.