textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Seasonably warm and prolonged dry conditions will maintain an elevated wildfire risk throughout this 7-day forecast period.

- The lack of appreciable rainfall will result in further drought degradation through the end of the month.

- Longer range guidance beyond the next 7 days suggests complete erosion of the upper ridge and the potential for a more active pattern closer to Halloween into early November.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Persistent ridging aloft and sfc high pressure anchored to our NE will maintain slightly above average daytime warmth and seasonably cool nights. If it weren't for the ongoing drought and a dire need of appreciable rainfall, one could argue it's the picture perfect forecast for early fall. Indeed, the very dry air mass in place is quite pleasant anytime of the year but especially during the fall season. Mild evenings and even cooler mornings will continue under this pattern even as daytime temperatures trend slightly warmer as the upper ridge builds overhead by this weekend. Therefore, expect middle 80s for highs by and large through at least Saturday with a continued fire danger as min RH values drop into the 20-30 percent range each afternoon.

By Sunday into early next week, an upper trough digging out west will begin ejecting into the Rockies and Central Plains. As the trough advances into the mid-section of the country, it will help to slowly dampen the ridge and eventually erode it completely by the middle of next week. This may finally bring a welcome change as it relates to increasing rain chances toward the end of the month. For now, the forecast remains almost entirely dry for the next 7 days despite a weak frontal passage by next Tuesday into Wednesday. Looking out slightly farther in time, more notable rain chances could follow by the very end of the month just in time for Halloween. So stay tuned as we monitor these trends in the forecast guidance over the next week.

/19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

For the 21/18Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs will prevail through the period with light and variable winds. Any periodic increases in wind speeds will be from an easterly direction, while FEW250 will remain the most likely cig through the period.

/16/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Spotter activation may be needed through this week in the event of wildfire development.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 51 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 47 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 47 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 50 83 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 45 84 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 53 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 49 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 50 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.