textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- A weak surface front and very moist air mass in place will result in the potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding after daybreak this morning across portions of East Texas and North Louisiana, persisting through early evening.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm redevelopment and the threat for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is expected late tonight over these same areas, persisting through the afternoon Tuesday before diminishing from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. - An additional threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding may rematerialize over portions of Deep East Texas and North Louisiana Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The early morning sfc analysis indicates a weak sfc front that has become stationary near the I-20 corridor of E TX (near and N of TYR/GGG) to along the AR/LA border. Convection earlier this evening had been tied along the front where low level convergence was stronger, with the convection now driving the front farther S into the Hill Country attm. The 00Z KSHV sampled a very warm and moist air mass in place just ahead of the front, with PW's setting a daily climatological record at 2.3 inches, which remains evident with the latest mesoanalysis S of the front across much of Cntrl/S TX/LA and the Lower MS Valley. Thus, the storms earlier this evening have been very efficient rainfall producers, with hourly rainfall rates over TYR near or in excess of 2"/hr, with a second cluster of storms producing hourly rain rates in excess of 4"/hr in/near Athens in Central Henderson County where flash flooding was significant per social media reports.

While the heaviest rainfall threat overnight should remain over the Hill Country ahead of weak shortwave troughing over this area, additional convection development should increase later this morning and especially during the afternoon farther N along and just ahead of the stalled front, with the potential for convection developing farther S over SE TX/SW LA building back N with various mesoscale interactions focusing the potential for banding and concentrated areas of excessively heavy rainfall. Given that the near record PW's will linger through the day today, any redeveloping storms will remain capable of producing excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time, with the CAMs struggling but generally suggesting that these excessive amounts may fall over portions of E TX/N LA along/S of I-20. For this reason, as well as what occurred earlier this evening over E TX, have issued a Flood Watch through 00Z Wednesday for this area, and while general QPF amounts through Tuesday afternoon should range from 1-3 inches, locally higher amounts in excess of 5-6+ inches will be possible, much of which may fall over a short period of time. Believe that the overall flood threat should remain localized, with dry soil moisture and streamflows at or below normal inhibiting a more widespread flood threat.

While the flood threat should again subside Monday night, additional convection redevelopment is expected late, while gradually diminishing from NW to SE through the day Tuesday as drier air aloft begins to entrain SE once longwave troughing digs SE through the MS/OH Valleys. The front and its H925-850 reflection themselves should begin to wash out Tuesday morning as well, with the convection largely tied to a weak shortwave perturbation traversing SE beneath the broad trough. A warming trend will commence by Wednesday as daytime temps return back to near normal, although our attention will become focused on a weakness aloft that the various ensembles suggest should develop over Deep S TX Tuesday, while gradually traversing NE along the TX coast near or along the SE TX coast Wednesday. While the potential tropical impacts remains low with this system, sfc low pressure developing along the coast will increase low level moisture advection and attendant large scale forcing along and just offshore the TX coast, thus enhancing the seabreeze Wednesday afternoon well ahead over Deep E TX/N LA. For a system that should be cut off from the main flow, the GFS remains a bit too fast with the NE propagation with this system, with the slower ECMWF solution more preferable with an increase in deep convection through the day Thursday across Lower E TX/much of LA/Srn AR. Thus, a secondary heavy rain and flood threat may materialize over these areas Thursday, with any flood sensitivity largely dependent on what falls today through Tuesday.

Any remaining convection Friday will be tied to any weakness/moisture axis leftover from the late week system, with the medium range progs suggesting the potential for ridging aloft over the Srn Plains to begin building E into the region by next weekend.

Thank you WFO's LCH/JAN for coordination earlier this evening.

15

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For the 15/12Z TAF period, Convection is forecast to expand in coverage and intensity throughout the day across most terminal sites with the exception of TXK/ELD which can expect VCTS potential closer to 16/00Z. Low VFR and patches of MVFR cigs this morning will persist through the afternoon with some improvement to all VFR possible by 16/00Z. Ceilings forecast to again fall to MVFR overnight with convection gradually diminishing. Light southeast winds to prevail through much of the period. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Spotter activation may be needed Monday for rainfall and flood reports across portions of East Texas and North Louisiana. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 81 72 84 73 / 90 50 50 10 MLU 81 71 83 73 / 90 70 70 10 DEQ 82 68 88 70 / 30 10 10 10 TXK 82 69 90 72 / 50 20 20 0 ELD 79 68 85 71 / 60 40 30 10 TYR 83 72 87 73 / 80 30 30 0 GGG 81 72 86 73 / 90 50 40 0 LFK 80 72 82 73 / 90 80 80 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...None. TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ126-136>138-149>153- 165>167.