textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1006 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Confidence is high in the coldest air of the season moving into the Four State Region Sunday and Sunday night.

- Temperatures in the teens and 20s Sunday night may damage or kill sensitive vegetation and could pose a threat to persons vulnerable to the cold.

- Temperatures will trend much warmer by midweek, continuing through next weekend with no significant weather expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1006 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

The current synoptic pattern late this Saturday evening resembles a +PNA pattern with a high amplitude ridge over the Western US and a high amplitude trough across the Eastern US. Near the surface, eyes are easily drawn to the strong ~1040mb area of high pressure centered over the northern and central Great Plains, and quickly extending its influence south and east. A cold frontal boundary demarcates its leading end, which at the time of this writing is across the Southern Plains into the TN and Ohio Valleys and into the Great Lakes region.

Widespread convection continues to move E/SE across the local area late this evening, where enough instability and modest mid level lapse rates have allowed or a few strong updrafts, with small hail currently and anticipated to be the main hazard. Breezy winds up to 30 mph may also accompany a weak bowing signature across far southern LA parishes. Elsewhere, as cold air rapidly undercuts the current airmass, sufficient frontogenetical forcing around 925mb and MUCAPE values 100-500J/kg may make for some moderate shower activity/even isolated lightning activity across northern LA through midnight.

Precipitation will clear the area by daybreak Sunday, where attention will immediately shift to the much colder airmass. Strong surface high pressure will provide the primary sensible weather influence on Sunday, and with it will be a rather robust pressure gradient, making for a stiff northeast wind around 10-15mph. Strong cold air advection will result in little temperature recovery during the day on Sunday, with highs struggling to reach 40 across portions of SW AR and temperatures elsewhere stunted in the low to mid 40s. The stiff NE wind will make for wind chill values through much of the day in the 30s.

The CWA will face the brunt of this cold airmass Sunday night into Monday morning under clear skies and continued, albeit weakening, cold air advection. Winds will begin to ease after sunset on Sunday, which will largely protect the CWA from dangerous wind chill values heading into Monday. Nonetheless, a night of good radiational cooling within this cold airmass will yield the coldest temperatures thus far this season, with lows dropping into the upper teens across SW AR and the low to mid 20s elsewhere. Contemplated the need for a Cold Weather Advisory during this period, however, decided to hold off given that all locations are about 5-10 degrees away from temperature thresholds. Negligible spread in NBM low temperatures from the 10th percentile to the 90th percentile places somewhat higher confidence in current forecast lows, also aided in part by HREF probabilities suggesting only a 30-40% chance of meeting cold weather advisory temperature criteria at best (and this is mainly east of the Red River). All that said, everyone in the CWA should still prepare for bitter cold temperatures early Monday morning and may want to consider taking cold weather precautions such as covering pipes, covering sensitive plants, and checking on those vulnerable to cold weather. It remains possible that future forecast updates could trend a bit colder and hence warrant the need for a headline.

Strong surface high pressure will then shift east and modify on Monday, allowing for winds to swing back out of the southeast and allow temperatures to rebound into the upper 40s to low 50s (with the exception of far eastern zones struggling to reach the mid 40s).

By Tuesday, the high amplitude pattern will have broken down, becoming more split-flow as the polar jet becomes more zonal across the northern half of the US and the southern stream features weak troughing across west TX and northern Mexico. Return flow off the Gulf will ensue as the surface high continues eastward. Mid and upper level moisture will also be on the increase as the mid level trough draws subtropical moisture northward and the flow across the Southern Plains turns southwest. After another chilly start to the day on Tuesday, expect a rather substantial warm up back towards 60 across NE TX and N LA and into the mid 50s across SE OK and SW AR.

As the trough moves east Tuesday night and Wednesday, expect the next chance for rain and a continued warming trend in temperatures. Current rainfall totals appear meager as it seems probable that the atmosphere will take some time to saturate from the top down given the recent very dry airmass in place. A diving shortwave trough across the Rockies will then help carve a deeper longwave trough across much of the CONUS on Thursday and its current projected trajectory is expected to push a cold front through the region. With most of the dynamical forcing displaced to the north and the overall struggle for the atmosphere to saturate, this frontal passage does not appear overly wet at this time. This will then yield a cooler and drier day on Friday, although nothing nearly as cold as earlier in the week. Thereafter expect quick airmass recovery next weekend, with strong ensemble agreement in higher heights and hence, warmer temperatures.

CK

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

MVFR/IFR ceilings prevail as the warm frontal showers and thunderstorms move east out of the region. Most sites will stay in the realm of MVFR/IFR overnight as cloud cover slowly lifts and clears tomorrow morning. Surface winds are shifting to be more northeasterly and gusting to around 20 kts, which will continue through the day tomorrow. By the end of the period, expect clear skies and light easterly winds. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1006 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 69 37 44 26 / 20 50 0 0 MLU 63 33 39 21 / 20 60 0 0 DEQ 57 28 41 20 / 0 10 0 0 TXK 59 32 41 23 / 10 20 0 0 ELD 57 28 36 19 / 20 30 0 0 TYR 69 39 46 27 / 10 20 0 0 GGG 69 38 45 24 / 20 40 0 0 LFK 75 42 51 26 / 30 50 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.