textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- A low-end severe weather threat will exist across our NW zones during the afternoon and evening hours.

- A brief pause in convection is expected from late Thursday into early Friday with very warm temperatures possibly approaching record territory.

- A renewed threat of severe weather will return late Friday into Friday night across NW zones while widespread convection will begin to impact the region this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

It was a warm day across the Four State Region on Tuesday, with record highs set at Shreveport, along with Tyler & Longview in East Texas. Overcast skies, along with southerly winds will keep above normal temperatures across the region overnight, with lows only falling into the low to mid 60s. This could approach record high minimum territory in some locations. There is some model hint of some spotty light rain across SE Oklahoma overnight, so decided to add some slight POPs for that area. The overcast low clouds will hang around through late morning before we see sunshine for most of the area. Southerly winds will keep new record warmth across the region, especially south of I-30, with highs returning back into the low to mid 80s. Aside from the warm temperatures, our main focus today will be on the severe weather possibility. The upper ridge that had been over the area has shifted Southeast into the central Gulf. Flow aloft has already become southwesterly in wake of the ridge. A few weak disturbances will ride this flow overnight into the afternoon hours ahead of a stalled cool front, specifically along and north of I-30, which could result in some rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures in those areas. Also, expect strong southerly flow at the surface today. This could yield some warm air advection showers for areas south of I-30, especially across portions of East Texas.

Late this afternoon into the evening hours is where things will get interesting. An upper level trough will eject out of Eastern Colorado into the Central Plains. This will push the stalled cool front out of Central Oklahoma into North-Central Texas and Southeast Oklahoma. By this time, the atmosphere should be destabilized, with dewpoints in the 60s and CAPE values near 1500 J/KG. Short-term progs continue to suggest that strong isolated storms will start to develop along the frontal boundary. With low wet-bulb zero heights and bulk shear near 35 kts, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. However, there could be just enough low-level shear to not completely rule out a low- end tornado threat. Although the the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight the severe weather potential with Slight Risk across all of our northwesterly zones, current thinking is that the greatest chance for severe weather will be across areas along and north of I-30. This is mainly because the ridge in the Gulf and the parallel flow aloft should prevent the front from advancing south of I-30. Even with the severe weather in the aforementioned areas, we could still see some rain chances move into the remaining portions of Southwest Arkansas, and possibly as far south as the I-20 corridor of East Texas and NW Louisiana late this evening through Thursday morning.

The cool front will start to retreat back northward as a warm front on Thursday. Dry conditions are expected to return by Thursday afternoon into the early portions of Friday, along with more near record warmth. But, another upper level trough will eject out of Colorado into the Northern Plains Friday afternoon, driving another frontal boundary into the area. This boundary is expected to push deeper into the region, before stalling on Saturday. At the same time, a much stronger closed upper trough will meander across the northern Baja region of Mexico. This will keep a prolong period of rain chances over the region through the upcoming weekend into early next week, bringing much needed rainfall to the area. /20/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR cigs are beginning to move northward into portions of East TX and will continue to spread over the entire region over the next 6 hours. Most sites will stay MVFR through the morning hours, where there will be a brief period of clearing before a line of showers and thunderstorms move southeastward into the area Wednesday evening. Timing of the front remains uncertain, as it is expected to stall at some point. Winds will stay southerly, gusting up to 20 kts in places during the afternoon before weakening slightly going into the overnight hours. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 129 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight but may become necessary across the extreme northwest areas of Northeast Texas into Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas late Wednesday into Wednesday night due to the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms.

/20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 84 65 85 66 / 10 10 10 0 MLU 84 65 85 65 / 10 0 10 0 DEQ 78 59 79 59 / 40 70 60 10 TXK 83 64 84 66 / 20 30 40 10 ELD 83 62 82 62 / 10 10 20 0 TYR 82 65 83 66 / 30 30 40 10 GGG 84 64 85 64 / 20 20 20 0 LFK 84 65 84 65 / 10 0 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.