textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

- One more cold night before we see a warmup to start the upcoming work week.

- With that warmup will come moisture return in advance of our next weather disturbance Tuesday into Tuesday Night.

- A little cooler for Wednesday into Thursday before another big warmup for Friday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Portions of Deep East Texas are the only area across the Four State Region this late hour of the morning with temperatures just above freezing. Elsewhere...temperatures remain mostly in the 20s with lower 20s still ongoing for areas north and west of the I-30 Corridor. Winds...while they have been strong this morning, should come down a little in sustained speeds and gusts as the pressure gradient begins to relax a bit as we head into the late afternoon hours. Cold Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire on time at Noon Today.

Sfc map currently showing a strong 1044mb high pressure ridge across Western Oklahoma and this feature will quickly shift south and east into the heart of our region overnight...allowing winds to become light. Normally this would result in less in the way of mixing and thus ideal radiational cooling conditions overnight but looking aloft, there is an embedded disturbance in northwest flow across the Central Plains that will quickly spill south and east into the Middle Red River Valley of SE OK/SW AR and NE TX bringing some 700mb moisture with it. This moisture is well supported by all deterministic progs and may tend to hold temperatures up a bit overnight from falling drastically any further than they would otherwise given the near calm winds at the sfc. NBM guidance has come in a little warmer tonight than previous runs which is on the warmer side of most other MOS output. NBM has been running a little too cold as of late anyway so for this reason, have decided to stick with it's slightly warmer temps overnight. There is some weak forcing associated with this disturbance as well and given that, can't rule out some flurries near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor overnight but anything falling out of this 700mb moisture will be falling into a very dry atmosphere below this height and thus will likely evaporate before making it to the surface. Did however add this possibility to the forecast. This moisture and the disturbance moves out of the region quickly Sunday Morning and southwest winds along the backside of sfc ridging will allow for a much quicker warmup on Sunday vs what we have seen today thus far.

The warming trend will commence to start the upcoming work week with high temperatures on Monday well into the 60s across most of the region. Upper ridging across the Intermountain West will quickly move our way by afternoon on Monday but is quickly replaced by an upper level trough moving out of the Tx Hill Country Monday Night. Low level moisture return will be rapid Monday afternoon to our west and overnight across our region with the rapid onset of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms overspreading our region on Tuesday. A cold front will push this precipitation coverage south and east through our region Tuesday Night with most if not all of the precipitation south and east of our region to begin Wednesday. Not concerned about any strong to severe thunderstorms with this Tue/Tue Night trough but thunderstorms will be possible.

Longwave trough pushes through our region during the day Wednesday but we should not see any more precipitation with the upper trough passage during this time. Instead, we will see temperatures retreat back slightly for highs on Wed and Thu...a little closer to normal for early February. Should see temperatures returning back above normal to end the week and into the upcoming weekend.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

For the 01/00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the course of this forecast period. Mostly clear skies continue at this hour, punctuated only by a few high clouds. A broken mid level altocumulus deck will overspread the region from the northwest overnight, lowering CIGs but remaining within VFR levels. A few scattered flurries are possible across northern airspace, but not to a degree to be impactful. North winds will drop off sharply through the evening, becoming nearly calm areawide by daybreak, then pivoting around to a southwesterly orientation during the day tomorrow, picking up to speeds of 5 to 10 kts, becoming gusty at times, especially across east Texas.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Spotter activation is not anticipated through the next 7 days.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 24 49 33 66 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 20 44 29 59 / 10 10 0 0 DEQ 19 45 23 61 / 20 0 0 0 TXK 22 48 31 65 / 20 0 0 0 ELD 18 46 27 62 / 20 10 0 0 TYR 24 51 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 22 51 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 23 51 32 66 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.