textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- A round of severe thunderstorms will proceed through the area this afternoon and evening with damaging winds and large hail the main impacts, especially along and south of I-20 (tornadoes cannot be ruled out).

- Heavy rain and some flash flooding is most likely along and north of the I-30 corridor into south Arkansas (40% chance of > 3+ inches in 24 hours).

- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Near-term 14/16-18Z satellite imagery depicts an ongoing atmospheric evolution as moisture and convection shifts eastward across north-central Texas. As it does, moisture advection continues apace with the 60-degree isodrosotherm roughly along or near the I-20 corridor with robust southeasterly winds. Breaks in cloud cover are more somewhat more voluminous across East Texas into Central Louisiana, allowing for some instability enhancement (still below 2000 J/kg) in an otherwise low-CAPE/high-shear storm setup. High- resolution guidance continues to suggest a linear storm mode with QLCS impacts more likely among the convective group (meaning quick-spin up tornadoes and damaging winds are primary concerns). Secondary concerns continue to be with flash flooding from any efficient rainfall rates (40% chance of > 3+ inches in 24 hours) due to training thunderstorm lines along and north of I-30, however, dry antecedent soils and the progression of the QLCS system will preclude those areas from more serious impacts.

The post-frontal environment arriving later Sunday into Monday will reintroduce dry and warm conditions across the Four State Region as broad ridging displaces more troughing and associated weather activity into the Great Plains. Long-range guidance continues to suggest temperature maximums reaching into the lower 80s by the middle of next week before the next frontal boundary approaches the area by the weekend. /16/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

For the 15/00z TAFs, a broken line of strong to occasionally severe convection will continue to move eastward across Deep East Texas, Southern Arkansas, and much of Louisiana during the TAF period. The storms will affect KSHV at the start of the period and should affect KELD and KLFK several hours later. A broad area of light to moderate rain will persist behind the main line of storms. Precip will continue before a cold front and associated surface low move across the region between 15/05z-15/12z. The rain will end from west to east behind the departing system should end at all TAF sites by 15/15z. Flight conditions will be highly variable, but most sites should experience MVFR and occasional IFR conditions for much of the period before ceilings begin to slowly lift and scattered late Sunday afternoon.

/09/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1221 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon through tonight with the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 59 69 48 72 / 100 20 0 0 MLU 60 70 47 69 / 90 60 0 0 DEQ 52 66 40 69 / 100 10 0 0 TXK 58 68 45 71 / 100 20 0 0 ELD 56 68 43 70 / 100 50 0 0 TYR 56 66 46 72 / 90 0 0 0 GGG 56 67 45 72 / 100 10 0 0 LFK 56 67 49 73 / 100 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.