textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- The severe threat has diminished and remains minimal this afternoon, although scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible before diminishing by late afternoon/early evening.

- The potential for more organized strong to severe thunderstorms will increase late Tuesday night and especially Wednesday across much of the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The midday water vapor imagery indicates that drier air has begun to entrain E ahead of the weak mid/upper level shortwave trough over NCntrl OK, with the best large scale forcing having also spread NE into Cntrl/Ern AR. As a result, organized convection has sharply diminished/shifted NE out of the region, and any redevelopment should be isolated to scattered in nature, and not as robust as what was observed earlier. Thus, SVR Watch #28 has been cancelled early for SE OK/much of SW AR. However, still watching scattered convection develop farther S across Cntrl LA, associated with increased theta-e advection and the trailing edge of a weak perturbation aloft over the Mid-South region. This should continue to expand through the afternoon before gradually diminishing from W to E by mid to late afternoon, although isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall can not be ruled out as MLCapes have risen to 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk shear will remain adequate near 40kts for the potential for some more organized cells.

Our focus turns to the W as the closed low just W of Baja has begun to move inland across the peninsula, drifting E into NW Old MX Tuesday. SW flow aloft will begin to establish itself over the region late tonight and especially Tuesday, with low level moisture deepening once again along the SWrly LLJ over ECntrl TX into SE OK/SW AR as a series of perturbations aloft eject NE over these areas. Thus, increased large scale forcing should result in an increase in scattered convection during the afternoon over portions of NE TX into SE OK/adjacent SW AR. Can't rule out an isolated severe risk over these areas Tuesday afternoon, although thickening cloud cover and expanding convection should limit the extent of insolation and thus, Sfc based instability. However, deep convection should develop by mid to late afternoon along the dryline over W TX, with a linear line of severe convection expected to expand NNE along the bndry before shifting E as the trough and attendant diffluence aloft drifts into far W TX after 06Z Wednesday. This convective line should continue to hold together into early Wednesday morning as it marches E, but should gradually weaken as it does so as the air mass begins to stabilize over E TX/SW AR.

There is some indication that the convection may slow or temporarily halt its Ewd progress over E TX Wednesday, until the attendant cold front is able to reinforce the convection back E across the remainder of the region through the afternoon. If this does occur, a flash flood threat would materialize across portions of the area as rain rates would exceed allowed infiltration across the still dry topsoil. While the presence of the SWrly LLJ and strong bulk shear should maintain convective organization through and just after daybreak Wednesday, additional intensification may occur as the day progresses once insolation commences, leading to increasing MLCapes through the day. However, low level shear is progged to slowly weaken through the afternoon, but sfc based instability may help for some reintensification through the afternoon before the stronger convection exits the region during the evening. Still could see additional post-frontal convection develop Wednesday night near the near-closed low center over Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, before exiting the region by daybreak Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are possible, although isolated higher amounts may be seen should the linear line of convection slow/stall Wednesday morning.

Much cooler and more seasonal conditions will follow in wake of this system Thursday, as sfc ridging builds SE into the area. However, this will be short-lived as light Srly bndry lyr winds return on the backside of the ridge axis, and flat H850-700 ridging builds overhead to along the SE TX/S LA Gulf coast. Thus, the return to much above normal temps are expected Friday into this next weekend, with a gradual uptick in humidity returning next weekend as well. However, a dry NW flow late this week will become zonal for much of next weekend, maintaining dry conditions in place. A return to much cooler/near to below normal temps remains slated to return early next week with the passage of the next strong cold front, which may bring a light freeze to at least the Nrn zones by this time.

15

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

For the 09/18z TAF update...Flight categories range from low VFR to MVFR and a few IFR due to lower ceilings across the region. Radar imagery is showing an increase in light rain showers across the region that could start to impact our terminals. Will have to see how close these get to any locations though as they will be isolated in nature. Most of the showers and thunderstorms should move out of the region by around 00z. Once the rain ends, widespread MVFR ceilings will return for all terminals. Winds could become gusty at times this afternoon and into some of the early evening. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Spotter activation is not expected this afternoon or tonight, but may be needed Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 80 68 83 68 / 40 10 20 40 MLU 77 67 84 68 / 50 30 10 10 DEQ 74 64 78 62 / 50 20 60 80 TXK 77 68 82 67 / 50 20 40 60 ELD 77 65 82 65 / 50 20 20 30 TYR 79 68 82 66 / 30 10 40 80 GGG 79 68 83 67 / 30 10 30 60 LFK 79 69 83 67 / 30 10 20 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.