textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Nearly widespread triple-digit high temperatures will continue into the first half of this week, maintaining an elevated risk for heat-related illnesses.

- Increasingly dry soils and parched vegetation resulting from flash drought will support the threat of quick fire starts and rapid fire spreads. - Although rain will be hard to come by, a few opportunities will exist this week for northern areas to see isolated convection while most of the region looks to remain dry.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

An unrelenting upper-level ridge has yielded soaring temperatures once again today with triple-digit highs likely to be achieved for the majority of the region this afternoon. Although it's little consolation, we have managed to mix out dew points slightly more than yesterday so humidity levels are a bit lower by comparison. Of course, this development also presents a problem with our fire danger concerns that only continue to grow with the flash drought conditions that have materialized under this oppressive heat dome. Therefore, absolutely no changes are needed with our current heat and fire weather headlines as these hazard products will continue to be extended in time through at least mid-week with our future forecast updates.

In terms of any deviations at all from what we saw today, it does appear that we will struggle a bit more to mix out the dew points over the next days. Analyzing the precipitable water (PW) trends, guidance suggests PW values ranging between 1.5-2.0 inches across the entire region on Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, ambient air temperatures will largely remain the status quo if not even hotter given the ridge placement, albeit slightly retrograding westward early in the upcoming week. One potential fly in the ointment with the slight retrogression in the ridge is a weak frontal boundary slowly sinking southward from the Ozarks into our northern zones late on Monday into Monday night. For this reason, have continued to advertise slight to low chance PoPs across our northernmost CWA during this late Monday/Monday evening timeframe.

Looking beyond Monday, guidance continues to favor much of the same even as the ridge will weaken slightly and eventually split off with the western ridge axis centering across the Four-Corners region by mid-week. Unfortunately, this shift in the pattern will allow for increasing Gulf moisture across our region and enough that Extreme Heat Warning headlines may replace the Heat Advisory for at least some of our eastern zones later in the week. By next weekend, an advancing cold front to our north will attempt a run farther south into our region but confidence remains quite low on the prospects of any meaningful heat relief. At most, it appears the front may survive long enough to reach our northern CWA near the AR/LA border before retreating back northward. So despite earlier hints at possible heat relief on the horizon, that ship appears to have sailed for now.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For the 16/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the course of this forecast period. This morning has seen less Cu field development than in recent days, but scattered mid level clouds will be possible into the afternoon, dissipating after sunset and leaving only scattered high clouds and otherwise mostly clear skies overnight into tomorrow morning. South southwest winds will continue at maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts, becoming light during the overnight hours and westerly into tomorrow.

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FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A combination of dry fuels, low afternoon relative humidity in the 25-40 percent range, and S to SW winds sustained near 10 mph with some higher gusts in the afternoon hours will maintain an elevated wildfire threat across all of our fire districts. These conditions will persist through early this evening with conditions beginning to slowly improve after sunset with RH values recovering and wind speeds gradually diminishing.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but spotters are encouraged to report any wildfire activity to your local officials and fire department personnel.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 79 103 80 102 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 79 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 74 103 73 103 / 0 20 20 0 TXK 78 102 78 102 / 0 10 10 0 ELD 77 101 77 101 / 0 10 10 0 TYR 76 102 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 76 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.