textproduct: Shreveport

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A rather ill-defined sfc boundary continues to bisect the region early this morning, but we have to look aloft and to our west to find the culprit for what is expected to be a very active period through this short-term forecast. This feature of great interest is an unusually deep mid/upper-level trough across Texas for mid June, and it is the very slow progression of this trough that is expected to lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next few days and beyond. The first wave of convection is currently moving through central and south Texas, eventually expected to affect our region later this morning and throughout the remainder of the daytime hours.

Focusing back on the lower levels for a moment, the sfc boundary has all but washed out by all accounts given the relative lack of any temperature/dewpoint gradient along either side of it. As we progress through today, very moisture rich air will quickly surge north with 2" PWATs effectively overtaking the entire region by this afternoon. Coupled with the increased upward forcing ahead of the trough and the ongoing convection to our W/W, showers and thunderstorms developing across our region are expected to be very efficient rain producers. Add to that the recent heavy rainfall in parts of the region over the past several days, and we have some favorable antecedent conditions for a potential flash flood threat. This is especially the case across much of E/NE Texas in addition to parts of SW Arkansas and NW Louisiana. As a result, opted to issue a Flood Watch for these areas beginning at 7 AM today through 7 PM Thursday to account for multiple rounds of convection through this timeframe.

A general range of rainfall amounts between 1-3 inches is expected across the region with isolated higher totals of over 4 inches possible in the Flood Watch area. In addition to the heavy rain and flood threat, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may also result in some isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging wind gusts today across largely the same general area contained within the Flood Watch. This threat will carry into Thursday as well but should generally be confined to areas in East TX along and south of I-20 as indicated by the Day 2 convective outlook from SPC.

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LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

By Thursday night into Friday, the trough will gradually begin to lift NE into the middle Red River Valley with continued convection expected across much if not all of the region. For this reason, additional extension/expansion of the Flood Watch may be needed beyond the current expiration time. It is worth noting that the ECMWF is more bullish on the trough's NE ejection by the end of the week and into the weekend while the GFS continues to slow its exit from our region. Regardless, expect rain chances to persist through the weekend as high moisture content and daytime heating will still contribute to at least scattered convection each day. For now, have trended toward the GFS solution of more widespread convective coverage through the weekend.

By early next week, it does appear that rain chances will finally trend downward as upper-level ridging out west begins to nudge slightly closer to our region. Of course, this is by no means set in stone given some disparities and a lack of consistency in the medium-range guidance this far out so have held onto additional rain chances from early to mid week with temperatures generally trending near seasonal average for mid June.

/19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

For the 11/12Z TAFS, CIGs remain VFR north and east, while quickly dropping to MVFR across east Texas as a complex of showers and storms approaches from the west, with pockets dropping to IFR at daybreak. Showers and storms are on track to impact KTYR imminently and KLFK soon after, spreading eastward through the day. Exactly how far east these storms will reach is uncertain, but for now, enough confidence exists to prevail impacts at KGGG, KSHV and KTXK beginning in the late morning and early afternoon hours, continuing for much of the rest of this forecast period. Winds will maintain a southeasterly orientation, increasing in speed to 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon with isolated gusts of up to 15 kts possible.

/26/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Spotter activation may be needed today through Thursday for severe weather and flooding reports.

/19

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 89 72 86 73 / 70 50 80 40 MLU 91 72 90 73 / 40 30 70 30 DEQ 85 67 80 68 / 50 70 90 60 TXK 88 70 84 71 / 60 60 90 60 ELD 89 68 87 69 / 30 40 80 50 TYR 84 69 82 70 / 90 60 90 40 GGG 87 69 83 70 / 90 60 90 40 LFK 87 72 85 73 / 90 40 80 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ARZ070>072.

LA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ001>003-010.

OK...None. TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ097-108>112-124>126- 136>138-149>153-165.