textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- The usual summer heat and humidity continues through the 4th of July holiday weekend, but rain chances are also on the upswing.

- Upper ridge axes to our east and west will leave our region in an induced area of weak troughing, opening the door for daily showers and thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.

- Slight forecast uncertainty remains beyond the middle of next week with increasing signals that ridging will begin to exert greater influence across our region late next week, which would mean a trend toward hotter and drier conditions once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Another day of scattered diurnal convection on Friday helped to slightly quell the summer heat once again, but most areas still managed to reach the lower to mid 90s for afternoon highs. That should be no different on this Independence Day as we celebrate 250 years as a nation, but the fireworks may not be limited to just the pyrotechnics as more thunderstorms are expected today. Much like the past few days, convective coverage will increase during afternoon peak heating as instability is maximized within an area of induced troughing between a pair of ridges flanked to our east and west. As the ridge to our east continues to slowly drift toward the eastern seaboard and largely a non-factor for us, anticipate even greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. In fact, confidence has increased enough to warrant high chance to likely PoPs across the central and eastern portions of our area. Some of this convection should linger for a few hours into the early evening before diminishing to allow for firework celebrations to go off without a hitch.

The induced troughing mentioned above will continue to maintain elevated rain chances on Sunday through the first half of next week. In fact, the trough axis may dig even slightly farther south into the region through early next week which would keep daily rain chances going for the vast majority of the region for at least a few more days. Unfortunately, it still appears upper ridging will eventually build back closer to the region as we move later into next week. Of course, that can only mean one thing this time of year. Even hotter temperatures are on the way, and the chance of any rain will be greatly diminished with increasing subsidence aloft. In the meantime, keep an eye to the sky and take necessary precautions with outdoor Independence Day celebrations, including both heat safety as well as lightning and other hazards from thunderstorms. At a minimum, have a plan to adjust outdoor activities on short notice as weather conditions warrant.

Happy Birthday to our beloved USA! From us all at NWS Shreveport, have a safe and joyous Independence Day!

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Very little change from the 06z TAF package. Did prevail VCSH to begin the 12z TAF period at the TXK terminal due to convection that has developed north of the airport but otherwise, still feel it will take daytime/afternoon heating to really increase convective coverage across our airspace today. Thus, 17z VCTS prevailing across all other terminal locations. Will handle any further convective restrictions with TEMPO groups. Otherwise, convection should be dissipating after 00z this evening in coverage and intensity. Cannot rule out overnight convection north and west of the I-30 Corridor but any nocturnal convection should remain to the north and west of our terminal locations through sunrise Sunday Morning.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Although spotter activation is not expected at this time, spotter reports may be needed with scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the Independence Day weekend, including the possibility of a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 93 75 93 77 / 60 30 30 30 MLU 95 75 93 76 / 50 20 40 20 DEQ 92 72 93 73 / 50 20 30 50 TXK 94 74 95 75 / 70 20 30 40 ELD 92 72 92 74 / 70 20 40 40 TYR 96 77 97 78 / 20 20 30 20 GGG 95 76 95 77 / 30 20 30 30 LFK 96 76 95 77 / 20 20 30 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.