textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- One more very warm and humid day Monday with give way to increasing showers and thunderstorms late Monday night over East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and Western Louisiana.

- Showers and thunderstorms will shift east across much of the region through the day Tuesday along a cold front, and will bring the potential for isolated strong to severe storms, before diminishing during the evening.

- Cooler and drier conditions are expected for mid and late week in wake of the frontal passage, with near seasonal temperatures expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The early morning water vapor imagery indicates dirty ridging spreading E through the Srn Plains and Mid MS Valley, ahead of longwave troughing entering the Rockies and Four Corners Region. Meanwhile, the 12.3-10.35um satellite imagery indicates a broad swath of low clouds that have developed/advected NW into Lower E TX, much of N LA and into Srn AR, along and behind an inverted sfc trough extending from far SE TX into NW LA, SCntrl and SE AR. This bndry is most discernible through the sfc theta-e analysis, with near to lower 70 degree dewpoints evident SE of the bndry. This feature is progged to continue drifting NW later this morning before becoming more diffuse by/after daybreak, although continued low level moisture advection and weak isentropic forcing may contribute to isolated -SHRA development by mid/late morning through the afternoon over all but the Wrn sections of E TX. Afternoon temps will again return much above normal near 80 to the lower 80s, but should remain shy of the max temp records for the date.

The primary focus for deep convection will be to our W, as the dry line mixes E into the TX Big Country and Wrn OK, and focuses initial development through the day as large scale ascent increases along the approaching upper trough axis. Stronger instability and wind shear will contribute to an increasing severe threat during the afternoon/evening over the Srn Plains, as an organized band of convection forms and slowly marches E into Cntrl/Ern OK and N TX during the evening. The short term progs remain in good agreement with timing, as the arrival of these storms will move into the NW zones after 06Z Tuesday, but should weaken some in intensity given decreasing instability with the loss of diurnal heating. Isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out though NW of the I-30 corridor, with an attendant cold front eventually overtaking the dryline, before entering the region by/after daybreak Tuesday. These storms may again begin to reintensify by late morning through the afternoon as diurnal heating contributes to increased instability, which should build from portions of Deep E TX across much of Cntrl and Nrn LA into Srn AR. Shear should be slightly weaker (marginal) that what will develop later today farther W, as well as to our N), with isolated strong to severe storms possible, capable of producing locally gusty and potentially damaging winds. Widespread wetting rains will also result from this convection, but the steady Ewd progression of the convection will limit storm totals, with QPF amounts ranging from 0.50-1.5+ inches, a bit lower than previous model runs, as the base of the trough axis begins to lift NE into the Mid-South region during the afternoon/evening, thus focusing the stronger ascent and higher QPF's over this area.

The convection will begin to exit Srn AR/NCntrl LA Tuesday evening, eventually clearing the SE zones prior to daybreak Wednesday. Aside from some post-frontal stratocu over the NW half of the area Tuesday evening, the sky should begin to clear in wake of the fropa, with cooler and drier air spilling ESE into the region. The flow aloft will briefly become zonal beneath the ejecting trough Wednesday, with the medium range guidance continuing to suggest another progressive shortwave trough that will traverse OK/AR Thursday night/Friday morning. While the NBM guidance is dry during this period, it's not out of the realm of possibility for some elevated -SHRA to develop along this next trough given the strength of the elevated forcing, pending how amplified it will become. However, the lack of any Srly return flow will maintain a dry low level air mass, with any QPF across the Nrn zones expected to remain light. This next trough will help to reinforce the cooler and drier air mass into the area by late week/next weekend, before a potentially stronger cold front spills even cooler air in from the NW by late weekend/early next week. Unfortunately, this next front also looks to move through dry.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

For the 02/12Z TAF period, increased moisture across the region will maintain LIFR/IFR cigs through mid-morning with ceilings becoming MVFR/VFR through midday. SE winds to increase to 8-14 kts this afternoon with the higher values across the east Texas terminals as well as KSHV/KTXK. Otherwise, winds to remain elevated overnight with ceilings to again deteriorate to MVFR/IFR after 03/06Z. VCSH conditions will be possible across mainly TYR/TXK toward the end of the period. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1232 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight across Southeast Oklahoma, adjacent Southwest Arkansas, and portions of extreme Northeast Texas for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 82 68 76 53 / 20 40 100 10 MLU 81 68 82 55 / 20 10 90 70 DEQ 81 65 74 48 / 20 80 90 0 TXK 81 68 74 51 / 20 50 90 0 ELD 81 65 78 49 / 20 20 100 30 TYR 84 68 75 52 / 10 60 80 0 GGG 83 68 75 51 / 10 40 90 0 LFK 84 68 78 50 / 20 30 90 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.