textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Dry weather will continue, with morning lows in the 50s and 60s, and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Some sites south and east are expected to hit the lower 90s by mid to late this week.

- The southern and eastern ArkLaTex may see an increasing chance of showers this weekend as a potential tropical disturbance approaches the Louisiana coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

This week will find the ArkLaTex without much in the way of upper level steering mechanisms, with northwest flow away north of the Ozarks, ridging over the Desert Southwest, and a few attempted troughs or lows which ultimately don't end up amounting to much.

For the next several days, dry conditions will prevail areawide, and in the near term, near normal temperatures will remain, with lows in the lower to middle 60s south and even upper 50s north at daybreak Tuesday. The dry airmass remaining with us and mostly clear skies with abundant sunshine will do nothing to restrict heating, however, and afternoon highs will leap back into the middle to upper 80s. Wednesday looks to be a near carbon copy of tomorrow, and Thursday and Friday would be following suit, aside from a warming trend beginning to push highs back into the upper 80s to lower 90s and some increasing cloud coverage in the afternoons. Morning lows will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout.

Throughout this quiet week in the ArkLaTex, all eyes will be on an area of low pressure which is expected to develop over the southwestern Gulf within the next day or so. Signals are indicating increasing chances that this low will organize into a tropical depression later this week, with steering in the form of synoptic scale flow around a Bermuda High directing it north and east towards the U.S. Gulf Coast. It is still too early to speculate with confidence on the potential intensity of this system as it approaches the coast, but preparedness is always advisable. If the system's sustained winds reach Tropical Storm strength (39+ mph) it will be given the name "Isaias." As for its track, the 12Z GFS favors landfall somewhere along the LA/MS/AL coast. Please take these early projections with a grain of salt, and be attentive to forthcoming forecast updates.

Based on the consensus suggesting the system will keep largely to our east, impacts to the ArkLaTex look to be fairly limited. Again, bear in mind that this could change with subtle deviations in system track, etc. As for right now, slight rain chances return to our southeastern zones Saturday, continuing through the night into Sunday. Aside from some brief incursions into Deep East Texas, PoPs keep generally east of the I-49 corridor. Otherwise, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will continue, with lows trending back into the 60s areawide.

/26/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the forecast period ending 07/00Z. Surface high pressure across the region will allow for near calm winds overnight, becoming northeast at around 5 knots on Tuesday. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 63 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 63 89 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 54 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 58 86 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 58 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 62 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 60 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 65 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.