textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Widespread and much needed rains will overspread the region through the day Saturday with the passage of a cold front.

- The severe threat appears to remain minimal with this event, ending during the late afternoon/early evening.

- Cooler and drier air will filter southeast into the region in wake of the front Saturday/Saturday night, with near to below normal temperatures expected Easter Sunday into the start of the new work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The early morning mosaic radar imagery indicates a developing MCS extending from the Ozarks SW into Ern and Srn OK across the mid and upper Red River Valley of NW TX. This convection has developed along and just behind a cold front, which continues to steadily march SE through these areas, and will approach the far NW zones by 12Z Saturday. The short term progs continue to suggest strong moisture convergence that will continue overnight along the front, aided by persistent large scale forcing associated with diffluence along the base of deep upper troughing observed from the Dakotas S through the Cntrl Plains into Wrn OK and the TX Panhandle. The latest short term progs remain mostly consistent with their earlier runs, with the potential for mostly scattered -SHRA developing ahead of this MCS along the broad theta-e axis extending from much of N and NE TX into SW and Wrn AR, with deeper convection along and just behind the front eventually moving into areas NW of the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR between 09-12Z. MLCapes will continue to gradually diminish overnight, thus minimizing the severe potential as these storms approach the NW zones, but PW's of 1.5-1.6 inches, continued frontal convergence as well as strong upward ascent within the zone of diffluence along the base of the trough will yield the potential for heavy rainfall across these areas prior to daybreak, and continuing through the remainder of the morning into at least the early afternoon hours. Overall shear ahead of the front remains progged to gradually weaken through the afternoon, although some instability recovery will be possible across portions of Deep E TX into NCntrl LA which may help to reinvigorate the storms along the front. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms can not be ruled out, with locally gusty winds the main threat. However, widespread wetting rains should generally range from 1-2+ inches across the area (with the greater totals NW of I-30), although some progs are now suggesting lower amounts closer to a half inch across portions of N LA as the convection organization may weaken through the day.

High temperatures will likely be observed this morning ahead of the front across NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, with temps falling with the fropa and the rain cooled air inhibiting much of a recovery even after the rains diminish during the afternoon. The convection along the front should persist this evening over Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, although additional -SHRA redevelopment may occur post-frontal tonight farther N across more of Lower E TX into far Nrn LA closer to the attendant H850 trough. This -SHRA redevelopment should gradually diminish from N to S with the H850 trough passage, with greater cold advection occurring overnight where the lower cigs are able to clear especially N of I-20. Did re-add slight chance pops across the far Srn zones Sunday (Easter) morning until the H850 trough clears the region to the S, with near to below normal temps with low and comfortable RH's expected areawide despite the presence of elevated cigs traversing the base and beneath the upper trough as it slides E of the MS Valley into the OH Valley and the Mid- Atlantic region.

Sfc ridging remains progged to be centered over Ern OK/NCntrl AR by Monday morning, with decoupling winds and thinning elevated cigs resulting in good radiational cooling such that temps will fall into the 40s over much of the region. Another beautiful day will return Monday afternoon with near to slightly below normal temps again expected, with secondary sfc ridging expected to backdoor SW into the region by Tuesday morning, reinforcing the cool and dry air mass that will be in place. A slow moderating trend will commence by midweek as SErly bndry lyr winds return on the backside of the retreating sfc ridge, although low level moisture return should be delayed until Thursday. The upper flow should also gradually transition to SW by this time, with weak perturbations and increasing low level moisture resulting in the return of at least isolated convection Thursday afternoon over E TX/WCntrl LA. It should be noted that the 00Z GFS appears out to lunch in regards to much more aggressive low level moisture return and resultant convection development Tuesday night/Wednesday with a weak shortwave passage over the area, having done a complete 180 from earlier model runs and earlier consensus with the ECMWF. Thus, the latter model ensemble is preferred, with the potential for more scattered convection areawide along with much warmer temps by the end of the forecast period next Friday.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Tempo MVFR ceilings expected ahead of cold front that will move across the region bringing TSRA conditions and erratic gusty winds across area terminals from 04/14Z through 04/22Z. South winds 10 to 15 knots ahead of the front to become northwest near 10 knots behind the front by 05/00Z, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after 05/06Z. Any post-frontal lingering precipitation dissipate and MVFR ceilings to improve to VFR by the end of the TAF period at 05/12Z. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Spotter activation may be needed Saturday for isolated strong to severe storms that may develop across portions of Deep East Texas, North-central Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 76 52 70 47 / 100 50 0 0 MLU 82 54 70 48 / 100 90 10 0 DEQ 67 42 71 40 / 100 0 0 0 TXK 71 47 71 46 / 100 20 0 0 ELD 75 49 70 43 / 100 50 0 0 TYR 70 49 70 47 / 100 20 0 0 GGG 74 49 70 47 / 100 30 0 0 LFK 78 56 70 49 / 100 60 20 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.