textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- One more day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms once again on Wednesday.

- Much less in the way of storm coverage on Thursday as we undergo a pattern change aloft.

- Upper ridding begins to build in across our region on Friday and through the upcoming weekend and into much of next week. Rainfall chances disappear and near triple digit heat returns next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Upper ridging continues to dominate the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest with well established easterly flow south of this dominant ridge across the Lower Miss Valley into the Southern Plains. Very unusual pattern for our region into the middle part of July and it will continue, at least for Today and weakening by we transition into Thursday. An elongated upper level trough across SE AR into N MS will continue retrograding westward into the Ouachitas today and will provide the necessary forcing along with diurnal heating to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Likewise, another area of upper forcing will exist from Central Texas into the heart of our region with at least scattered diurnally driven convection across N LA into NE and Deep East Texas given the high PWAT in place. Much like tonight, we should see this Wed Aftn convection dissipating quickly during the evening hours. On Thursday, there will still be a north to south oriented shear axis across the western 2/3rds of our region and this combined with residual moisture will result in isolated to scattered convection across all but our far northeast zones.

Beyond Thursday, upper ridging will begin to build from the northern Gulf on Friday and into the heart of our region Saturday into Sunday. We should be well into the middle 90s for the upcoming weekend temperature wise. By Monday thru at least Wednesday of next week, upper ridging should become well anchored across the Red River Valley of S OK into N TX with that ridge axis extending south and east into the Lower Miss Valley. With this kind of pattern, we may begin dealing with temperatures near triple digits and with those ambient temperatures, depending on our ability to mix down afternoon dewpoints or not, we may be dealing with a return to Heat Advisory criteria as well.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

For the 15/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail to begin the TAF period with mid and high clouds blanketing much of our airspace. As we get closer to daybreak, will be watching for some patchy fog and low stratus development across our South AR terminals and possibly KMLU invof a stalled frontal bndry along with isolated convection. Convection is expected to expand once again during the day today as sfc heating increases and the frontal bndry continues to bisect our airspace. Therefore, have included VCSH/VCTS at all sites during the latter half of the TAF period and will likely need to prevail TSRA eventually in future TAF cycles as confidence in timing increases with afternoon sea breeze convection encroaching from the south. Otherwise, look for any low cigs to gradually lift back to VFR by midday, albeit low VFR in some cases with increasing convection. Light and variable winds this morning will generally prevail with a more S/SW component during the day as speeds average around 5-10 kts with higher gusts invof of convection.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested across the region, particularly for flooding concerns across the region. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 89 72 91 74/ 40 20 20 20 MLU 91 72 94 75/ 40 20 10 10 DEQ 85 68 89 70/ 60 40 20 20 TXK 88 71 92 74/ 50 30 20 20 ELD 87 70 91 72/ 50 30 10 10 TYR 89 72 91 74/ 50 30 30 20 GGG 89 72 91 73/ 40 20 20 20 LFK 87 71 91 73/ 50 30 30 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.