textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 - Warmer and more humid conditions are set to return to the region today.

- The potential exists for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this morning through mid-afternoon mainly across portions of Southwest/South-Central Arkansas and extreme Northern Louisiana.

- The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will return on Tuesday afternoon in our northwestern zones and once again Wednesday areawide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Yesterday's cold front has already returned northward across the region as a warm front. Current regional obs has the warm front stretching from near the Texas/Oklahoma Red River border southeastward across Southwest/South-Central Arkansas, just north of the Louisiana border. Expect some patchy fog to develop in wake of the front, generally south of the Interstate 20 corridor. This front is expected to stall around its current location through the early afternoon hours. Short-term progs have a short- wave disturbance riding along that boundary later this morning. This will ignite some convection along the stalled front from the late morning through the early afternoon hours. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a Slight Risk today, but it has shifted it more into Southwest/South-Central Arkansas, with only a sliver of extreme Northern Louisiana remaining. With steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing levels, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat. However, there could be just enough shear to not rule out a tornado. The severe threat should end during the afternoon hours as the warm front lifts north of the area. But to the south of the front, there should be enough instability for afternoon heating to yield some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms before sunset.

Beyond today, long-term progs continue to show a closed upper trough slowly pushing eastward towards the area from the northern Baja region of Mexico. Ahead of this trough, disturbances will kick off showers and thunderstorms as it moves across the southwesterly upper flow. Some of this convection could make it into our northwesterly zones on Tuesday afternoon, with the best chances north of a line from Tyler TX...to Texarkana...to Hope AR. As the upper trough shifts into Central Texas late Tuesday night, a line of convection will form and eventually move into our region on Wednesday. All modes of severe weather will be in play, along with some locally heavy rainfall. Cooler and drier conditions will return in wake of the trough for Thursday and Friday, with morning lows falling into the low to mid 40s. These dry conditions are expected to remain through next weekend, with warmer conditions returning. /20/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Prevailing MVFR/IFR ceilings across all terminals as we start the 12z TAF period. These ceilings will slowly climb and should return to low VFR conditions by late morning into the afternoon hours. Starting to see some elevated convection firing across SE OK attm and that convection could possibly develop further south this morning, impacting mainly the TXK/ELD and MLU terminals throughout the day. Likewise, cannot rule out this possibility a little later in the day at the SHV terminal as well. Any convection across our airspace should have pushed east by the 00z TAF period and then we wait for returning MVFR ceilings areawide by this evening and prevailing through the overnight hours. Look for SE to S winds this morning near 10kts with higher gusts by late morning through the afternoon, especially across our NE TX terminals in addition the the TXK and SHV terminals.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Spotter activation may be needed later this morning and through the first half of next week. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 78 68 83 67 / 50 10 10 40 MLU 77 67 83 68 / 50 30 0 10 DEQ 74 62 78 61 / 50 20 30 80 TXK 76 68 82 67 / 50 20 20 70 ELD 75 64 82 64 / 60 20 10 30 TYR 79 68 82 66 / 30 10 20 70 GGG 79 67 83 66 / 40 10 20 60 LFK 78 68 83 66 / 40 10 10 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.