textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Typical summer heat and humidity will persist through the 4th of July holiday weekend, holding close to heat advisory conditions but still not quite warranting heat hazard products for now.

- Upper ridge axes to our east and west will leave our region in an induced area of weak troughing that will gradually allow for increasing rain chances through the holiday weekend and the first half of next week.

- Forecast uncertainty remains beyond the middle of next of week with some indications of the two ridge axes exerting greater influence across our region late next week, which would mean a trend toward hotter and drier conditions once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

As expected, scattered diurnal convection brought more welcome heat relief to parts of the region on Thursday, mainly across East TX. With the upper-level ridge still parked over the OH Valley, expect more isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms with increasing instability during peak heating this afternoon. However, much like the past few days, not everyone will see rain but we should begin to see convection become more expansive over the Independence Day weekend as the ridge shifts even farther east out over the Atlantic. Meanwhile, induced troughing will set up across the Ozarks and southward into our region with another ridge axis building out west. This pattern shift should promote greater thunderstorm coverage this weekend so take appropriate precautions with outdoor Independence Day celebrations, including both heat safety as well as lightning and other hazards from thunderstorms.

The longwave pattern appears to maintain the weak troughing across our region into early next, albeit not as pronounced so scattered convection will likely persist through the first half of the week. By late week, there are some signals of the upper ridge trying to exert more of an influence and expand back closer to our region. If that pans out, expect an uptick in temperatures with mid 90s and maybe even some upper 90s for late next with dwindling rain chances. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty farther out in the forecast next week so continue to monitor for updates throughout this Independence Day weekend. At a minimum, prepare for scattered thunderstorms this holiday weekend and have a plan to adjust outdoor activities on short notice as weather dictates.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Beginning to see some low level cu forming across Deep East Texas but will it be enough to result in any MVFR ceilings through mid morning is looking doubtful. TEMPO groups continue through 14z for the LFK and TYR terminals. Otherwise, we should see a cu field developing across most of our airspace later this morning continuing through the afternoon. Also cannot rule out isolated to widely scattered convection developing across our airspace this afternoon into the early evening hours but this is best handled with VCTS and TEMPO groups if necessary. Convection should have dissipated later this evening with VFR conditions prevailing overnight. Look for light and variable winds this morning, becoming SSW and then SSE through the day with speeds generally under 10kts.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Although spotter activation is not expected at this time, spotter reports may be needed with scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the Independence Day weekend, including the possibility of some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 93 75 93 77 / 20 10 40 20 MLU 95 75 95 76 / 0 0 30 10 DEQ 91 71 92 73 / 20 10 30 20 TXK 95 74 94 75 / 30 10 40 20 ELD 93 73 92 74 / 10 0 40 10 TYR 94 76 96 78 / 20 10 20 20 GGG 94 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 20 LFK 94 74 95 76 / 20 0 20 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.