textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Upper-level ridging will allow late summer heat to remain across the region, with more heat advisories likely beyond today through at least the first half of the upcoming week. - Rain chances will be largely negligible throughout the week as well, with only very isolated afternoon convection due to the influence of the dominant upper ridge.

- The ridge is expected to migrate back westward by late next weekend, paving the way for cooler weather to make its way south into our region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Upper ridging continues to build into the region. Most of the area has remained dry today, but some isolated to scattered convection has developed over locations on the eastern periphery of the building ridge axis. This trend will continue through the remainder of the afternoon before diminishing during the early evening hours. From there, another mild and quiet night can be expected, with lows ranging from the low to mid 70s. With the building ridge in place, the current Heat Advisory over the entire Four- State Region will be allowed to continue through Monday evening. Afternoon highs on Monday will continue to range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Some additional isolated afternoon convection will be possible again along the eastern periphery of the ridge, which will generally be locations in South-Central Arkansas and North & Central Louisiana east of the I-49 corridor.

Upper ridging will become anchored across the Lower Mississippi Valley and over the region through most of the upcoming work week. Expect drier conditions, although a stray isolated shower and thunderstorm can't be ruled out during peak heating. Heat headlines will likely remain across the region and cause some elevated fire weather concerns. However, long-term models continue to suggest a pattern change, with the ridge sliding west of the area. At the same time, the models continue to suggest some activity in the northern Gulf, which will need to be watched closely. This pattern change looks to bring us some much needed rain and cooler weather. /20/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail early this afternoon, with some showers beginning to develop around northeast LA. Models are traditionally bad with placement of shower development which make the rain forecast difficult today. As such, I've elected to keep VCTS in for all sites that may or may not need extending at the next package. Some high clouds may persist overnight before the next round of cu develops late tomorrow morning. KLFK is likely to see a return of MVFR/IFR cigs and visibilities around daybreak that should clear within a few hours. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Spotter activation is not expected, but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across parts of South- Central Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana through the early evening hours. /20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 77 100 77 99 / 20 10 0 0 MLU 76 99 75 99 / 20 20 0 10 DEQ 72 99 72 99 / 20 10 0 0 TXK 76 99 76 99 / 20 10 0 0 ELD 74 99 73 99 / 20 20 0 10 TYR 76 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 75 100 74 100 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 74 97 74 98 / 0 10 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.