textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Abnormally hot and humid conditions will return today, but slightly better mixing should result in heat indices near or below 105 degrees.

- While dry conditions are expected today, a decaying complex of showers and thunderstorms should spread into the areas along and north of the I-30 corridor by/after midnight tonight.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms should persist Friday for portions of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas, which should act to taper the heat back slightly than areas farther south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Very warm and humid conditions persist even at the 05Z hour, as dewpoints have had a hard time mixing out earlier today given the abnormally high PW's of 1.7-2.0 inches in place, as sampled by the 00Z KSHV raob. Not expecting much additional cooling to continue overnight as a weak pressure gradient will maintain S winds 5-10kts thus continuing the mixing of the air, with low cigs expected to develop within the next few hours over E TX/WCntrl LA and spread NNE into SE OK/adjacent SW AR/Wrn LA by daybreak. While flat ridging aloft will remain anchored from E TX through the Lower MS Valley today, the short term progs suggest that slightly drier air associated with lower PW's of 1.5-1.7 inches over MS/SE LA will advect WNW into more of N LA/Srn AR, which should to allow for slightly better mixing of dewpoints than what was observed Wednesday afternoon. However, early morning low level theta-e ridging that is progged to develop over E TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR should limit the extent of deep lyr mixing over these areas, with max temps expected to be near if not a degree or so warmer during the afternoon. While some areas in NW LA/Deep E TX did briefly reach heat indices of 105 degrees Wednesday, believe that this threshold will be brief and a bit more limited later today, and thus will hold off on a Heat Advisory attm.

Upper troughing digging into Wrn WY early this morning is progged to translate E through the Nrn Plains today and into the Midwest this evening, with the trailing edge of the trough expected to traverse into Nrn OK later this afternoon. This trough will reinforce a weak cool front SE into the TX Panhandle, Cntrl and NE OK by mid and late afternoon, and serve as the focal point for scattered to numerous convection development by the 21-22Z timeframe, as they begin to slide SE into the TX South Plains, Srn and SE OK and NW AR during the evening. Adequate low level convergence leading into the front within a strongly unstable air mass should result in severe convection developing over these areas even through the evening, although the SE storm propagation into SE OK should yield a weakening trend as the instability begins to wane, and deep lyr shear weakens considerably with time and distance away from the trough. However, the remains a non-zero severe chance that these storms may try and gust out as they enter Nrn McCurtain County OK and the adjacent Nrn sections of SW AR by or after midnight tonight, even while maintaining some organization through at least a portion of the overnight hours. With the vast majority of the hi-res progs suggesting the convection able to penetrate the Nrn sections of the region, while helping to suppress the upper ridging S a bit, have increased pops to likely for the far NW zones, tapering pops down to chance closer to the I-30 corridor. Mesoscale bndrys and the presence of a weak shear axis leftover from this convection appear as if they may help sustain some scattered convection Friday morning for NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. before these features wash out during the afternoon as the mid-level ridging tries to rebuild back N into SE OK/SW AR by the evening. Will have to see where these remnant bndrys end up though as they may still focus the potential for isolated afternoon convection closer to the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA, but will leave these areas dry for now as the remain closer to the suppression beneath the ridge. The cloud cover and lingering convection over the Nrn zones should result in slightly cooler afternoon temps Friday than areas to the S, which should provide at least a little relief to the heat.

With the mid-level ridging expanding back N into Srn AR Friday night/Saturday, sinking air beneath the ridge should again dial the heat back up areawide with dry conditions returning to much of the region. Max temps should climb into the mid 90s across most areas, with a few upper 90s not completely ruled out. However, some relief to the heat and dry conditions appear on the way for the latter half of the weekend into the start of the new work week as the ridge is suppressed S to the TX coast into the Gulf along the base of abnormally deep longwave troughing that will begin to dig S through the Cntrl Plains/OK and the Ozarks Sunday, and into our region by Monday. This trough should reinforce a weak cool front S into the region Sunday, which when combined with ample instability and increasing Pacific moisture riding E along the base of the trough, should aid in the initiation of scattered to numerous convection across the region Sunday, especially continuing into Sunday night and Monday. The medium range guidance suggests that the front may pull up stationary Sunday night/Monday somewhere over E TX/N LA, which would focus the potential for heavy and potentially training rainfall over these areas, which would certainly benefit the severe and extreme drought in place. The convection should begin to gradually shift S by Tuesday as drier air deepens behind the longwave trough axis, although the presence of the attendant H850 trough from Deep E TX across N LA may help to maintain some convection redevelopment through midweek. With the increasing convection and cloud cover comes a cooling trend with temps through at least midweek, certainly a welcome relief to the hot and humid conditions observed as of late.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

As expected, widespread MVFR ceilings have infiltrated much of our airspace to begin the 12z TAF package. The exception to this was across our far eastern airspace in the vicinity of the ELD and MLU terminals but low clouds are trying to fill in across these areas as well. We should see this cloud cover scatter out and/or lift above MVFR categories with VFR conditions returning to all terminals by mid to late morning today. Look for SSE to S winds this morning veering around to the S and SSW with sustained winds near 10-15kts with gusts upwards of 25kts, especially in the vicinity of the TYR/GGG/TXK and SHV terminals. Winds will decouple after sunset. Look for returning MVFR ceilings once again near but especially after midnight tonight across at least the western half of our airspace. May be dealing with some convection in the vicinity of the TXK terminal after midnight but left this out of this 12z package for now and will readdress with the 18z package.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 115 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight across Southeast Oklahoma and possibly the northern sections of Southwest Arkansas.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 95 77 94 77 / 0 0 10 10 MLU 95 77 94 76 / 0 0 10 10 DEQ 92 76 88 74 / 0 60 50 10 TXK 97 78 93 77 / 0 30 40 10 ELD 95 77 91 75 / 0 20 30 10 TYR 93 77 94 77 / 10 0 10 0 GGG 95 77 95 76 / 10 0 10 10 LFK 94 76 95 75 / 10 0 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.