textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Persistent dry weather and lower humidity will present fire danger concerns through this evening. Please adhere to burn bans provided by local officials.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances return tonight and through Monday as a slow moving frontal boundary begins to move in.

- Slightly cooler and drier air arrive by mid-week in the wake of the front and despite the return of upper level high pressure.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The synoptic scale pattern this afternoon features a relentless ridge of high pressure extending along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines into the lower Southern Plains and through the ArkLaMiss region. Downstream from this persistent feature is a weak closed low pressure system over the west coast of Florida, while upstream a much more active pattern can be found with a closed low over the Northern Rockies, with multiple shorter-wave perturbations located to its south and east across the Central Rockies and through the Central Great Plains and Midwest. At the surface, high pressure continues to hang on over the Southern US and Gulf Coast, while a slow moving, almost stationary boundary extends from the Southern Plains into the Midwest and Southern Great Lakes. North of this front, a secondary frontal system can be detected across the Upper Great Lakes, with an expansive, seasonally strong area of high pressure over central Canada nosing into the Northern US.

Focusing closer to home across the Four State Region, high pressure both at the surface and aloft continue to allow for hot and dry weather. Today, fire weather will continue to be the primary concern and a Fire Danger Statement will hold until 7pm tonight. Compared to Saturday, some enhanced cloud cover can be expected as the larger scale pattern prepares to change for our region very briefly. Nevertheless, despite some additional cloud cover and no heat headlines in place, those spending time outdoors should still be aware that heat-related impacts are still possible as highs recover themselves back into the mid and upper 90s this afternoon.

Attention then turns towards our brief pattern change expected later this evening and into the beginning of the work week. The ridge of high pressure that has held firm influence over the local area will dampen significantly as a shortwave trough across Central TX pushes east. This shortwave will allow for the development of a sfc wave along the previously mentioned slow moving cold front along the Red River of TX/OK. As the shortwave and front then move east in tandem tonight, showers and thunderstorms will develop. The highest potential for strong to severe storms will coincide with the location of the shortwave and front and peak diurnal heating just to the west of the CWA across northern TX and Southern OK. Expect instability/CAPE to quickly wane after sunset and significantly shunt the severe weather potential, however, there exists a brief window from roughly 00z to 06z across northern McCurtain County where a strong storm or two or even an isolated severe threat will exist, where the main hazard will be damaging wind. Convection and shower chances will remain low then through the overnight period and into Monday morning as the front continues to slide south or perhaps even become quasi-stationary, although a lone shower and/or thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out.

More cloud cover will greet most of the area Monday morning, slowly scattering through the day and yielding another hot day. That said, weak troughing in the mid and upper levels and the lingering front will work together to make for the best chance of rainfall for the local area this forecast period. While nothing remotely close to a wash out is expected, scattered thunderstorms are expected areawide, and especially so south of the I-30 corridor to our far southern zones. While the SPC does not have the local area in a severe weather outlook, given the moist and unstable airmass in place, thunderstorms will have the capability to produce damaging winds (and brief, heavy rain) and therefore, a few severe thunderstorms could materialize during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Tuesday may feature isolated thunderstorm activity south of the I-20 corridor as the front continues to make its slow progress through the area and the remainder of locations in the post frontal environment patiently wait for any sign of cooler weather. The weak cold front will finally pass through the local area on Tuesday night. Unfortunately, any type of cooler air will lag its passage.

The upper level ridge returns for Wednesday as the post frontal airmass near the surface works itself better into the area. Subsidence from the upper level ridge will help to offset any significant cooling provided by the post frontal airmass, with the result being high temperatures only a few degrees cooler than what has been experienced over the past 1-2 weeks. This pattern will hold through the remainder of the forecast period with high pressure aloft and surface high pressure ridging into the area from the north. Expect dry weather with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s. A slightly enhanced surface pressure gradient may make for a least an afternoon breeze but may make for increasing fire weather woes.

Kovacik

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 747 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

For the 21/00z TAF period...VFR conditions will continue to prevail with mid and high clouds over the region. There is some model suggestion that slight rain chances could return by the end of the period with the passing of a cool front, but confidence is too low to include at this time. /20/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 76 97 74 97 / 0 20 20 10 MLU 75 99 72 98 / 0 10 20 10 DEQ 70 96 68 93 / 10 20 10 20 TXK 75 97 72 95 / 0 20 10 10 ELD 73 98 70 96 / 0 20 10 10 TYR 75 97 73 96 / 20 40 20 10 GGG 73 99 72 98 / 0 30 20 20 LFK 74 95 73 96 / 0 10 10 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.