textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Near to below normal temperatures will continue across the region through much of the coming work week.

- Widespread wetting rainfall will increase across the region late Tuesday night through much of Wednesday, but should only provide minimal drought relief (if any) to the area. - There is some consensus of an arctic intrusion of very cold air that will spill into the region late Friday, with low confidence continuing regarding the potential, placement, and timing for mixed wintry precipitation next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

The late evening sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging has built into the NW Gulf, although stronger upstream ridging was noted across much of the Plains states and Midwest. This renewed sfc ridging was best depicted with the wind shift in the sfc obs over the TX Panhandle into NW OK/SE KS, which will nose S overnight and eventually enter extreme NE TX/SW AR after daybreak Monday before eventually transitioning across the remainder of the region during the afternoon. Not much of an air mass change is expected with this wind shift as it moves through the area, but instead, will act to reinforce the cool and dry air mass already in place. Daytime temps should remain near the below normal this afternoon, although areas of cirrus should increase from the W after daybreak along the base of the longwave troughing extending across the Cntrl and Ern CONUS. This elevated moisture shield should gradually diminish from N to S this evening through Tuesday as the next shortwave trough rounds the base of the longwave thus allowing drier air to erode some of these cigs along the jet streak at the base of the trough. Should see another night of widespread freezing temps Monday night once sfc ridging builds into Ern OK/AR and the Mid-South region, resulting in good radiational cooling especially N of I-20.

This broad troughing regime will persist across much of the CONUS Tuesday, which will eventually tap ample Pacific moisture from the closed low over the Far Ern Pacific W of Baja. The medium range progs remain consistent in developing another shortwave early Wednesday morning along the base of the longwave trough over W TX, which will amplify a SWrly LLJ across much of the state, thus advecting an influx of low level moisture into the region late and through the day Wednesday. Isentropic forcing along the LLJ axis should aid in scattered -SHRA development late Tuesday night, further aided by increasing large scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough by or just prior to daybreak Wednesday. Have increased pops late to high chance across the Wrn sections of NE TX into SE OK/adjacent SW AR, while also increasing pops to categorical over much of the region Wednesday as SHRA development increases through the day. While much needed rain will fall over much of the area Wednesday/Wednesday night, expected amounts will do little to ease or improve the ongoing drought conditions across the region.

Our focus will then turn towards late week, as the 18Z medium range progs as well as the 00Z GFS continue to suggest a shallow arctic front that will begin to shift S into the region Friday/Friday night. Considerably uncertainty exists as to how deep and cold this air mass will be, especially as the base of the aforementioned and departing broad upper troughing shifts back N and begins to pull away into the TN valley and Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, the medium range progs also suggest that a closed low off the CA/Baja coast will open up into a trough as it drifts through the Srn Rockies and eventually the Srn Plains next weekend, tapping an active subtropical jet with increased PVA and overrunning resulting in a mixed wintry bag of precip across the region. While the deterministic 00Z GFS remains rather bullish with the shallow arctic intrusion and enhanced overrunning late Friday night into Saturday, a number of ensemble members from the GEFS suggest that the extent of mix wintry precip will be more limited. As is usually the case for this area, the progs often do poorly with these shallow air masses and attendant precip, with the depth/placement of the arctic (subfreezing) air, depth of the warm (above freezing) air above the cold air dome, and timing of moisture advection/forcing key for determining the extent of icing impacts. While the NBM (which usually runs a model run behind the deterministic progs) has trended some 15-20 degrees colder with temps next weekend, including more widespread subfreezing temps and wetter (frozen) precip, this portion of the extended period remains a low confidence one that will likely change from run to run over the next few days.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

For the 19/06z TAF update...VFR conditions continue to prevail our airspace with SKC in place for all terminals this evening. Previous TAF update had one line SKC throughout the period, the only thing I changed for this update was to introduce some SCT to BKN high clouds around 20/00z. Winds are expected to be light and variable through the overnight hours, returning to a more northeast to east wind during the day Monday. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through at least midweek. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 27 59 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 25 56 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 22 48 17 52 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 27 51 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 21 51 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 30 58 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 26 58 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 28 63 34 60 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.