textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Cool conditions will continue through Tuesday night, with areas of light rain with a couple isolated thunderstorms increasing across the western half of the region Tuesday morning.

- Warmer and more humid conditions will return Wednesday through next weekend, although an unsettled weather pattern will persist with daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

The early afternoon sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging anchored over the Lower MS Valley, with sfc winds already veering more SE on its backside across N LA/E TX/Srn AR. Low level moisture return will remain neglishable through the remainder of the afternoon into much of tonight, but the afternoon visible satellite imagery depicts an extensive band of cirrus that continues to stream E across the area into the Lower MS Valley ahead an upper trough extending from Cntrl/SW NM into Nrn Old MX. Large scale forcing ahead of this trough continues to enhance convection development across W TX into the Hill Country/portions of SE TX, although sfc obs on the Nrn fringes of the RA area still depict large temp/dewpoint depressions, indicative of the dry low level air still hanging on across these areas. While low level moisture advection will increase/spread N across Cntrl and ECntrl TX overnight, the air mass closer to home will remain quite dry through much of the overnight hours, until forcing aloft begins to increase late/slowly spread E ahead of the advancing trough into W TX. The short term progs are in good agreement in maintaining the majority of the rains just off to our W tonight, although moistening of the dry column from the top down should allow for at least some areas of -RA/sprinkles to increase late across E TX. Have expanded slight chance pops a little farther E than the NBM to account for the -RA that has already fallen/measured across portions of the Big Country now spreading into portions of Wrn N TX with 11-12kft cigs, with the rain area becoming more widespread after daybreak Tuesday across E TX as it gradually spreads E into SE OK/adjacent SW AR/Wrn LA through the day. The -RA should gradually weaken with time though as it encounters considerably drier air over Srn AR/NCntrl LA, while diminishing from the W once the weak trough aloft begins to traverse Srn AR/N LA by afternoon.

Did expand slight chance pops farther E than the NBM Tuesday to account for the sprinkles that will be possible along the trough axis, but otherwise, the dense elevated cloud cover and the potential for some cooling of the column with the -RA should result in considerably cooler temps from W to E across the region. With the lower layers beginning to saturate, along with a gradual increase in bndry lyr RH's, min temps will begin to moderate Tuesday night, with more notable low level moisture advection increasing across the area Wednesday. The lingering tail of the shortwave trough axis remains progged to extend over the area Wednesday, which may focus a continuation of isolated to scattered convection through the day, although some insolation should result in warmer temps with the higher RH's.

The departure of this disturbance Wednesday afternoon will yield a temporary reprieve in convection development Wednesday night, as we await the arrival of another progressive shortwave trough that will swing E through the Cntrl Plains into OK/the Ozarks Thursday night/Friday morning. This trough will reinforce a weak cold front SE through OK and the Ozarks Friday, with the ECMWF remaining more bullish with a more progressive SE shift through our region Friday afternoon/evening than the GFS (which hangs the front up just to our N over SE OK/Wrn AR). Should enough convection develop through the day along the front, it's feasible the the front may become more convectively enhanced as it moves through portions of our area, thus focusing additional convection development through the day especially during peak heating. The only caveat is that the primary forcing with the trough is progged to become more displaced to the NNE through the day. Attm, not completely sold yet on the severe threat as outlooked by the Day 5 outlook from SPC, although a conditional threat would be possible based on the resultant instability and marginal bulk shear. The frontal placement Friday into the upcoming weekend will be key in determining additional convection development, which would be driven by diurnal heating and weak perturbations in the mostly zonal flow aloft. The unsettled weather pattern looks to persist through at least early next week, although confidence as to the mesoscale or synoptic specifics remains low given the disparities amongst the various ensembles.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Cirrus and high AC ceilings continue to creep in from the west and southwest this evening and that will be the trend through the overnight hours. We should stay VFR through the night. Precipitation will begin increasing across our western airspace near or shortly after daybreak Tue Morning and thus once we are able to saturate the atmosphere from the top down, look for MVFR ceilings to prevail from mid to late morning through the end of the TAF period, mainly at the TYR/GGG and LFK terminals.

Look for light south to southeast winds overnight with winds increasing after 14z on Tue, sustained near 10kts with some higher gusts.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through Tuesday. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 55 70 57 78 / 10 40 20 40 MLU 51 78 58 82 / 0 10 20 20 DEQ 48 68 52 74 / 0 30 20 30 TXK 53 68 56 78 / 0 30 20 30 ELD 48 75 55 78 / 0 20 20 20 TYR 54 64 57 78 / 30 70 30 40 GGG 53 66 56 77 / 20 60 30 50 LFK 55 67 58 79 / 30 70 30 60

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.