textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 949 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Scattered showers overnight tonight will continue into tomorrow morning, followed by another round of rainfall and possible storms beginning overnight tomorrow, coming to an end by Thursday evening.

- Our warming trend continues, with highs in the 60s on Wednesday and the 70s on Thursday.

- Friday will be cooler behind the cold front, followed by a quick return to the warming trend for the weekend and into next week, likely continuing through the approaching holidays.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 949 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

The upper-level ridge that has kept the area dry this weekend has moved on to the east earlier this afternoon, allowing for some scattered showers to move in from the southwest. Confidence on exact location of this rain is fairly low due to the scattered nature of the rainfall. However, there is agreement that the line of showers will gradually increase in coverage through the overnight hours and cover much of the region by Wednesday morning. Even with the rain, widespread cloud cover and the southerly surface winds will keep tonight relatively warm in the 40s.

As for this forecast period, scattered showers will remain a possibility for much of the region Wednesday morning as a shortwave trough meanders east. Rain coverage will gradually diminish through the day as temperatures climb into the low to mid 60s. Even with the shortwave gone, a larger upper-level trough will bring a cold front that will bring more rain to the region beginning Thursday morning. The consistent warm air and moisture advection from southerly surface flow have the potential to prime the atmosphere for these showers to have embedded rumbles of thunder. Fortunately, many other markers for shear and instability seem to be lacking, making severe weather look unlikely at this time. This front will move through and exit to the east Thursday night, taking the cloud cover with it.

The rest of the forecast period looks benign, with zonal flow returning aloft. The cold front will only knock temperatures back briefly into the 60s before southerly flow resumes the warming for the weekend. Temperatures in the upper 60s to even mid 70s will be possible beginning on Saturday and continue into early next week. This pattern looks like it will hold consistent across the CONUS for much of next week, which aligns with previous forecasts of a warmer-than-average Christmas with no rain in sight this year.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

For 17/06Z tafs, ceilings to deteriorate overnight, becoming MVFR/IFR with -RA/DZ increasing in coverage through daybreak. Ceilings to remain MVFR/IFR through much of the day Wednesday with VCTS conditions possible near LFK in the afternoon and mainly VCSH conditions elsewhere. Otherwise, light south winds overnight to become southeast 5 to 8 knots on Wednesday. Winds to remain slightly elevated and ceilings MVFR/IFR after 18/00Z. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1124 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tomorrow night, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the day on Thursday.

/26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 49 62 56 71 / 40 40 20 30 MLU 43 60 52 70 / 30 30 10 60 DEQ 42 58 51 65 / 20 20 50 40 TXK 47 60 55 67 / 40 30 50 50 ELD 41 57 50 66 / 50 30 30 70 TYR 52 64 59 69 / 20 20 20 10 GGG 49 63 56 70 / 30 30 30 20 LFK 49 64 56 73 / 40 50 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.