textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 159 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Near-normal temperatures continue until Thursday with rain chances returning by tomorrow.

- By Friday, a colder Arctic air mass will shift southward in combination with a storm which will introduce a wintry mix of precipitation across all of the area through most of this weekend.

- Impactful winter weather, including multiple days of wintry precipitation, will likely create significant disruptions to travel and infrastructure through the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Dry, seasonable conditions will continue for the next 24-36 hours before the next chance of rain returns for the Four State Region. This is due to a disturbance channeling subtropical moisture across south Texas tomorrow (a classic theme that will return again through this month). This initial batch of liquid precipitation will produce uneventful 0.5-1 inch totals into Thursday. The synoptic situation evolves by Friday as an robust Arctic airmass (1040mb+) proceeds southward across the Eastern US, introducing some of the coldest air of this winter into our area. The prolonged nature of this cold air advection/intrusion will maintain a winter weather event starting on Friday as another overrunning disturbance funnels Pacific subtropical moisture across the dense, cold air that will be in place.

Synoptic arrangements continue to be in a classic overrunning fashion with Pacific moisture atop an Arctic air mass, but the concern remains with overperformance potential as trends and indications are for more of a wintry mix/freezing rain threat across most of the area. Higher amounts of QPF are in play due to the enhanced flow and saturation of the atmospheric column (PWATs of 0.6-0.8+ in. on Friday into Saturday). Reconnaissance flights are scheduled to sample Pacific moisture to refine model ensembles and boost forecast confidence on the intensity of precipitation expected. That said, forecast confidence on this winter weather event continues to increase steadily, now medium-high to high (70-80%) across the area. Medium-range guidance suggests most of the the distribution being a wintry mix south of the I-30 corridor with higher chances of snow in southeast Oklahoma. Within this wintry mix, some amounts of freezing rain and sleet are likely (70% chance of >0.1 inch). The highest remaining amounts of forecast uncertainty are still with the meridional distribution of wintry precipitation types.

Some concern is now building for particularly significant impacts to infrastructure across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday into next Monday as a result, and longer-term preparations should be activated now ahead of Friday morning. Given the urgent nature of this forecast, a Winter Weather Watch has been issued for Friday morning into Sunday afternoon. /16/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

For the 21/06z TAF update...VFR conditions currently prevail for all terminals, but this will gradually come to an end through the night. Lower ceilings are already starting to move into east Texas and we will see OVC around 4k feet around 21/08z to 21/10z. Additionally, rain chances will begin to increase around this same time frame with mention of -RA in through tomorrow morning. While visibility will drop some with the rain, it shouldn't drop much below 4sm. As the rain comes to an end towards the end of the period, indications are that IFR to some LIFR CIGs will remain in place for most terminals. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through at least Thursday. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 46 59 46 59 / 30 90 30 20 MLU 41 59 47 57 / 10 90 60 30 DEQ 35 59 31 54 / 60 80 0 10 TXK 43 59 40 54 / 60 90 0 10 ELD 37 55 39 53 / 30 90 30 20 TYR 49 60 45 61 / 50 90 10 10 GGG 47 60 44 59 / 40 90 20 10 LFK 50 64 51 64 / 50 80 30 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.