textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and again, late Friday afternoon...much less in the way of storm coverage than what we have been dealing with lately.

- Upper ridging begins to build in for the upcoming weekend with pops becoming nil.

- Upstream ridging becomes anchored across the Southern Plains through much of (if not all) of next week with temperatures soaring for the later half of July.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The favorable upper level pattern consisting of an active easterly flow across the Lower Miss Valley into the Southern Plains which has resulted in cooler than normal temperatures and much wetter than normal conditions for the last week plus is about to change in a big way as we head towards the weekend and especially into next week.

But before we get there, we will still have enough PWAT and upper forcing to combine with diurnal heating to produce isolated to scattered convection late this afternoon across most of our region with the exception being our far northeast zones. Much of that upper forcing will be absent for Friday but high res progs are hinting at very isolated afternoon convection once again across our region so added that to the forecast. Otherwise, a weak upper ridge will materialize from the Central Gulf and expand northwest towards the upper Texas coast and into the Piney Woods for the upcoming weekend.

As we move into the upcoming work week, upper ridging becomes established from the Intermountain West...south and east across the Red River Valley with the center of this feature migrating slowly south and east into the Southern Plains by the middle of the work week. As one would expect, the closer the center of this ridge moves towards our region, temperatures have no recourse other than to respond in an upward direction. NBM max temps are in the middle 90s for the weekend and approaching triple digits for Monday through at least Wednesday of next week and we can't argue with that given the positioning of the upper ridge. Pretty good agreement in the medium range that the upper ridge is here to stay, perhaps through the end of the month so we hope everyone has enjoyed the plentiful July rainfall while it has lasted because we could easily go through the remainder of the month without much if any additional rainfall after Today.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

For the 16/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail to begin the TAF period with mid and high clouds blanketing much of our airspace. As we get closer to daybreak, will be watching for some patchy low stratus development across our East TX terminals and possibly KSHV. Otherwise, look for any low cigs to gradually lift back to VFR by mid to late morning with a healthy cu field through the afternoon. For now, have not included mention of convection at any terminal sites but will re-evaluate this possibility with the next TAF cycle. Light and variable winds this morning will generally prevail with a more S/SW component during the day as speeds average around 5-10 kts with slightly higher gusts possible during the afternoon.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will fire once again with the aid of daytime heating across the Four State Region. Some of these storms could produce strong and damaging wind gusts and brief heavy downpours. However, widespread severe weather which would promote the activation of storm spotters is not likely Today through Tonight.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 92 75 93 75/ 20 20 20 10 MLU 94 76 96 76/ 10 10 10 10 DEQ 90 71 91 72/ 20 20 20 10 TXK 92 74 94 75/ 20 20 20 10 ELD 92 73 94 73/ 10 10 10 10 TYR 91 74 92 76/ 30 20 20 10 GGG 92 74 93 75/ 20 20 20 10 LFK 92 73 93 75/ 20 20 20 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.