textproduct: Shreveport

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- A round of severe thunderstorms will proceed through the area this afternoon and evening with damaging winds and large hail the main impacts, especially along and south of I-20 (tornadoes cannot be ruled out).

- Heavy rain and some flash flooding is most likely along and north of the I-30 corridor into south Arkansas (40% chance of > 3+ inches in 24 hours).

- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Near-term 14/16-18Z satellite imagery depicts an ongoing atmospheric evolution as moisture and convection shifts eastward across north-central Texas. As it does, moisture advection continues apace with the 60-degree isodrosotherm roughly along or near the I-20 corridor with robust southeasterly winds. Breaks in cloud cover are more somewhat more voluminous across East Texas into Central Louisiana, allowing for some instability enhancement (still below 2000 J/kg) in an otherwise low-CAPE/high-shear storm setup. High- resolution guidance continues to suggest a linear storm mode with QLCS impacts more likely among the convective group (meaning quick-spin up tornadoes and damaging winds are primary concerns). Secondary concerns continue to be with flash flooding from any efficient rainfall rates (40% chance of > 3+ inches in 24 hours) due to training thunderstorm lines along and north of I-30, however, dry antecedent soils and the progression of the QLCS system will preclude those areas from more serious impacts.

The post-frontal environment arriving later Sunday into Monday will reintroduce dry and warm conditions across the Four State Region as broad ridging displaces more troughing and associated weather activity into the Great Plains. Long-range guidance continues to suggest temperature maximums reaching into the lower 80s by the middle of next week before the next frontal boundary approaches the area by the weekend. /16/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Low cigs prevail over much of the region as showers begin to develop in eastern TX. These showers will grow in extent and intensity as they propagate eastward. Western and northern terminals may begin to see VCSH immediately, but the line of stronger thunderstorms isn't expected to impact our region until at least 14/21z. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday morning and will be accompanied by gusty southerly winds. Winds are expected to quickly shift out of the northwest following the passage of the main line of storms. Fog is not expected at this time, but decreases in visibility with heavier showers will be possible. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1221 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon through tonight with the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 59 69 48 72 / 100 20 0 0 MLU 60 70 47 69 / 90 60 0 0 DEQ 52 66 40 69 / 100 10 0 0 TXK 58 68 45 71 / 100 20 0 0 ELD 56 68 43 70 / 100 50 0 0 TYR 56 66 46 72 / 90 0 0 0 GGG 56 67 45 72 / 100 10 0 0 LFK 56 67 49 73 / 100 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.