textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Cool and windy this weekend with chances of light precipitation, mainly over and west of the mountains. Warmer early next week, then minor cooling and a slight chance of precipitation towards the middle of the week. Warmer and drier for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Cloudy, cool and breezy this afternoon, with a few light showers ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the west. The windiest locations at the east end of the Banning Pass are currently reporting wind gusts of 43 to 51 mph. A few locations in the coastal areas have reported precip accumulations of 0.01-0.03 inch in the last 12 hours.

As the low pressure system moves inland tonight through tomorrow, the westerly winds will strengthen and the showers will become more widespread. Winds will peak tonight with gusts 40 to 55 mph and locally to 65 mph in the mountain passes and adjacent desert areas. The showers should move east by Sunday afternoon as the upper level trough axis moves east. Total rainfall estimates range from a few hundredths in coastal Orange County to as much as about three quarters of an inch in the San Diego County mountains. The deserts would be lucky to get any measurable rainfall. Snow levels will fall to as low as 5,500 ft by early Sunday morning before rising Sunday afternoon. Up to 2 inches of snow could accumulate above 6,500 ft where showers develop.

Cool and breezy conditions will continue for Monday and Tuesday with little if any chance for precipitation. Temperatures on Monday will remain well below average but Tuesday will be warmer, with temperatures near average.

Another low pressure system could bring chances for precip again for late Wed into Thu as another low pressure system moves in from the west. The timing and trajectory of this system is still uncertain due to spread among model solutions but most likely, we will see more cool and cloudy weather.

Dry and warmer weather returns for the end of next week as the low moves inland and weak high pressure ridging develops over the west coast.

AVIATION

260000Z...Multiple cloud decks, SCT-BKN 2500-5000ft for coastal and inland areas and SCT-OVC 20,000-25,000ft MSL across the entire region. VCSH is beginning to spread into the coastal areas this evening with more widespread -SHRA expected to fill over the next few hours. Light rain is also now reaching the mountains with intermittent SHSN above 6500-7000 ft MSL. Mtns shrouded in FG; vis 0- 5SM in FG/SHSN. Periodic wind gusts above 20kts to continue at most sites this evening, stronger winds possible overnight and into Sunday morning, especially for desert sites and those near mtn ranges where surface gusts may reach 30-35kts. Through mtn passes, up to 50kts. Mod to strong up/downdrafts near peaks and on desert slopes today and Sunday. Periodic reduced VIS due to BLDU. -SHRA will come to an end north to south on Sunday, around 09-12z Sun for Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino counties and 16-19z Sun for San Diego County.

MARINE

Gusty west winds close to 18-20 kts expected intermittently through late Sunday morning which may be hazardous to small craft. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...None.