textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Near to slightly below average temperatures expected today and tomorrow, with a cooling trend into the end of the week. Unsettled weather is expected for the weekend with increased winds and chances of precipitation. Tides will remain elevated through much of this week.

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

Cooling is expected to start to spread inland as onshore flow gradually increases over the next few days. Widespread below average temperatures are expected through much of this week with highs on Saturday and Sunday running 10 to 20 degrees below average for inland locations. Patchy marine layer low clouds and fog may develop tonight into Tuesday morning near the coast. Low cloud and fog coverage is expected to become more widespread for Tuesday night into Wednesday and will remain persistent each night and morning through the week.

The weather becomes unsettled for the second half of the week with the center of a closed low near the Pacific Northwest coast for Thursday through Sunday. A nearly zonal subtropical jet stream from the central and eastern Pacific into northern Baja will strengthen for Friday and Saturday, possibly transporting a low pressure into northern Baja or far southern California some time around late Saturday into Sunday. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the details of the forecast this weekend, but there is increasing confidence that the bulk of the precipitation won't arrive until Sunday. That being said, periods of on and off light showers may develop as early as Friday or Saturday. Given the uncertainties on if the bulk of the moisture will be transported into Southern California or northern Baja, there is quite a range of potential rainfall totals. The GFS has been trending wetter, with the bulk of the moisture plume closer to Southern California. On the other hand the ECMWF solutions continue to show the bulk of the moisture to our south and east. For context, the range of potential outcomes for 24 hour precipitation totals Sunday are 1.5 to 2.5 inches on the high end and near 0.10 to 0.25 inches on the low end.

In addition to rain, winds are expected to increase over the mountains and deserts. There remains uncertainty in the wind speeds, which will largely be determined by the track of the system. This looks like a warm system, which will keep the snow level near and about 8500 ft. Interested parties should continue to monitor the forecast in the coming days due to the moderate to high uncertainty in the details.

AVIATION

270530Z...Mostly clear and VFR conditions through Tuesday. ~10-30% chance for cigs tonight through 13Z with bases 900-1500 feet MSL. Cigs that occur will be brief and intermittent. Better chance for coastal cigs Tuesday evening after 03Z as clouds above 10 kft increase.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.

BEACHES

High tides during the late mornings will generate significant coastal flooding this week. Tides will be anywhere from 1.5 to 1.7 feet above astronomical predictions, likely raising high tides above 8 feet, peaking Tuesday morning. A Coastal Flood Warning contains the details.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.