textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Cool and windy continues today into early tomorrow with chances of light precipitation, mainly over and west of the mountains. Warmer early this week, then minor cooling and a slight chance of precipitation towards the middle of the week. Warmer and drier for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Mostly cloudy this afternoon with a few light showers producing little accumulations. A minor disturbance embedded in the northwest flow aloft could bring a period of increased shower activity tonight. Onshore flow remains strong and the wind-prone locations in the mountains and adjacent desert areas are currently reporting westerly winds gusting 35 to 45 mph.

Winds will gradually weaken tonight into Monday and precip taper off as the main upper level trough axis moves inland late on Monday. Temperatures on Monday will remain as much as 10-20 degrees below average for inland areas and the mountains but near or a little below average near the coast.

Fair weather with a warming trend will begin on Tuesday and continue through Wednesday as a low pressure system moves south out of the Gulf of Alaska and a weak ridge of high pressure develops over the Desert Southwest. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day with temperatures ranging from a few degrees below to a few degrees above seasonal averages.

Numerical models have adjusted solutions to slow down the progress of the Gulf of AK low so that it doesn't move into SoCal/northern Baja until Thursday. This means that we're unlikely to see any precipitation from this system until late Wednesday/early Thursday. Models are in pretty good agreement through Thursday with respect to the synoptic pattern, showing the closed upper low moving over northern Baja late Thursday. This trajectory could bring us precip on Thursday but not much in the way of winds or cold air. Temperatures on Thursday will likely be generally near or a little below seasonal averages.

Dry and warmer for Friday and Saturday under a transient ridge of high pressure between the departing system moving into the southern Rockies and another low pressure system moving in from the northwest.

Mountains/Deserts

Light precipitation falling in the mountains with intermittent SHSN above 6000-6500ft MSL. Mtns shrouded in FG; vis 0-5SM in FG/SHSN. Gusty west winds with surface speeds up to 20-30 kts, locally higher through mountain passes and near ridgelines, dying down by 12z Mon. Mod to strong up/downdrafts near peaks and on desert slopes. Periodic reduced VIS due to BLDU.

MARINE

Gusty west winds close to 18-20 kts expected intermittently through this afternoon which may be hazardous to small craft. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts- San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...None.