textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Dry and warmer through the end of the week, with high temperatures rising to as much as 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages by Friday. High clouds and weak offshore flow will continue through Tuesday, then weak onshore flow returns with increasing chances for a return of coastal marine layer low clouds later in the week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Evening update... Scattered high clouds continue to move over the region this evening between the upper level ridge to our south and a broad trough across the East Pac. Surface pressure gradients are weaker than they were yesterday evening, down to -5.1 mb SAN-TPH and -0.7 SAN-DAG. The 00Z HREF has around a 20-30% chance of low clouds developing over the coastal waters and into northern Orange County by Tuesday morning, but for the most part chances of any low clouds over land areas is less than 10%. No changes to the forecast this evening.

Previous discussion... Numerical models remain in good agreement into the weekend as the upper level ridge continues to dominate the synoptic pattern. Dry conditions and a warming trend will continue at least through Friday which will likely be the warmest day this week. Daytime temperatures on Friday will reach the upper 70s in the coastal areas, the upper 80s in the inland valleys, the upper 70s in the high deserts and the mid 90s in the low deserts. These temperatures are as much as 10-20 degrees above seasonal averages.

Weak offshore flow will continue through Tuesday before turning onshore for Wed through the weekend. High resolution models show a 30 percent or less chance for a return of coastal low clouds/fog tonight and Tuesday night. Chances for coastal low clouds/fog increase for Thursday through the weekend.

After Saturday, numerical model solutions diverge so confidence in forecast details is low. Temperatures will likely trend lower for the weekend into next week as the high pressure ridge weakens in response to a low pressure system approaching the coast from the northwest.

At this time, a handful of ensemble members indicate chances for precipitation for next Tue/Wed as the low moves inland, but this is highly uncertain.

AVIATION

230400Z...VFR conditions through the TAF period with high clouds AOA 25,000 ft MSL.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions expected through Saturday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.