textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Cool and windy continues today into early tomorrow with chances of light precipitation, mainly over and west of the mountains. Warmer early this week, then minor cooling and a slight chance of precipitation towards the middle of the week. Warmer and drier for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

New Aviation and Marine Discussion...

Today through tomorrow night...

Scattered showers continue to develop this morning and move onshore, mostly across San Diego County. Westerly winds have been quite elevated and gusty across the higher terrain, and deserts. These showers should become more numerous by later this evening as another perturbation embedded within the longwave propagates over the region. This will also help to usher in colder temperatures, as snow levels have already dropped down to around 5000 to 5500 feet. Places above this elevation, such as Big Bear, have already picked up a couple inches of snow. Generally speaking, additional amounts of around 0.10 inches of rain or less can be expected, but there could still be a few areas with higher amounts of around a quarter of an inch in the vicinity of Palomar Mountain through tomorrow morning. For tonight into tomorrow morning, showers will begin to taper off as high pressure conditions begin to build back in. Winds will begin to increase again by later this afternoon, and there could be some areas of blowing dust as well for portions of the lower deserts, namely within the Coachella Valley. For later in the day on Monday, clearing will continue and allow for slightly warmer temperatures in comparison to today. The marine layer will likely remain somewhat dispersed through the next couple of days.

Tuesday through Saturday...

By Tuesday, high pressure will bring about drier conditions with a gradual warming trend as the main energy of the trough shifts further east. This will also allow for there to be a cut-off low that develops well to our west over the Pacific Ocean. Depending on the track, this could bring a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms, especially over the mountains. Some of the deterministic models have the position of this U/L low transitioning just south of our CWA by later in the evening on Wednesday and into Thursday. Depending on which model resolved this the best will determine how much precipitation is received across the region, and this can be evaluated in the upcoming days. If this feature takes this track, it will give us the best chance of receiving any additional precip by this time, otherwise drier conditions and a gradual warming are expected towards the end of the week.

AVIATION

261130Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN low clouds oscillate between 1000- 4500ft MSL as scattered -SHRA continues to move across the area. Precipitation will become more scattered and isolated after 13-14Z from the northwest to the southeast, turning into VCSH after 16-17Z with the a few lingering showers after 20Z through the end of the period. Winds pick up 16-18Z with gusts up to 15-20 kts, dropping off in the late afternoon.

Mountains/Deserts...Light precipitation falling in the mountains with intermittent SHSN above 6000-6500ft MSL. Mtns shrouded in FG; vis 0-5SM in FG/SHSN. Gusty winds return 17-18Z with speeds up to 20- 30 kts. Mod to strong up/downdrafts near peaks and on desert slopes. Periodic reduced VIS due to BLDU.

MARINE

Gusty west winds close to 18-20 kts expected intermittently through late this morning which may be hazardous to small craft. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...None.