textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Warmer and drier weather continues today as high clouds move in from the west. Offshore winds will increase again, mainly out of the east, across the mountains and foothills by Monday. Weak high pressure will settle over the area for much of this week, leading to a subtle warming trend. High pressure becomes stronger over the area by later this week warming temperatures further.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Offshore winds continue to decrease and become locally confined to mountain passes this morning, mainly near 25-35 MPH. This trend will continue into the afternoon hours as pressure gradeints relax and a shortwave pushes further east into the Southern Plains. A weak area of low pressure is seen moving closer to the Bay Area, where higher level clouds from this will continue to move over our area throughout the day into Monday morning. Another offshore wind push will occur by early Monday morning into the afternoon, where gusty easterly winds are expected across much of the mountains and foothills of Riverside and San Diego Counties. Winds will be generally gust near 25-40 MPH at times before weakening Monday night. As the offshore flow weakens, chilly temperatures are expected for wind-sheltered valleys yet again by Tuesday morning. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s from Ramona to Temecula to Victorville.

Weak high pressure looks to remain over the region by Tuesday into Wednesday as a trough moves inland across Northern California. This will continue the warmer and drier weather pattern with a slightly deeper marine layer, bringing a better chance for low clouds to move in near the coast in the mornings. High pressure south of the region over the Pacific will strengthen further by Thursday into next weekend, leading to a warming trend. NBM chances for highs reaching 60 degrees for areas over 5,000 feet, like Mount Laguna and Big Bear, range from 35-50% chance of occurrence by next weekend. The same chances exist for lower deserts and valleys west of the mountains to reach 80 degrees by Friday into next weekend as well. Models continue to show a drying trend as confidence in the placement of the high pressure system over our region increases, where dry weather remains in the forecast as we round out the month of January into the first few days of February.

AVIATION

251700Z...Prevailing VFR region-wide with increasing upper level clouds AOA 20k ft through the period. Otherwise, gusty east winds pick up tonight around 07z Mon along coastal slopes, and downwind of the Banning Pass into the Inland Empire. Gusts 20-30 kts along coastal slopes and 15-25 kts for portions of the Inland Empire. LLWS downwind of passes and coastal slopes possible Monday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.