textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

High temperatures into early next week will generally range from a few degrees above average near the coast to 5 to 10 degrees above average for the mountains and deserts with some minor day-to-day differences. Minor to moderate HeatRisk, heat-related impacts affecting those sensitive to heat, will continue for the inland valleys and deserts through next Wednesday. Marine layer low clouds will spread into portions of the western valleys during the nights and early mornings, with day-to-day variations. A cooling trend with a deepening marine layer will follow mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

This afternoon...The marine layer remains about 1500 ft deep with a relatively strong inversion. Low clouds persist at the immediate coast this afternoon and will likely begin to spread inland in the late afternoon, extending up to 10 miles inland by sunrise on Sunday. The marine layer may be shallower Sunday morning than it was this morning as high-resolution models show minor height rises aloft and no indications of a coastal eddy. Temperatures are currently a few degrees lower than at this time yesterday except in the IE where it's a few degrees higher. The mid-level moisture from yesterday is mostly gone as the flow aloft has become more south westerly than southerly but enough remains for a few mid-level clouds and some cumulus over the mtns this afternoon.

SoCal will remain sandwiched between a high over the eastern North Pacific and one over TX/Mexico. This pattern will likely evolve into a Rex Block by Tue as a closed upper low moves into position south of the high off the NorCal coast. This will bring us mostly typical June weather through next Wed except for daytime temperatures which will be mostly a few to about 5 degrees above average for coastal regions and 5 to 10 degrees above average for far inland areas, including the mountains and deserts. Low temperatures will similarly be 5 to 10 degrees above average most place, with parts of the mountains and deserts seeing lows up to about 15 degrees above average. The marine layer will see minor day-to-day variations in depth, and the low clouds will return to the coastal areas and western portions of the inland valleys each night and morning.

For the latter half of next week...the east PAC high is weakened and displaced as a low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest. There is still significant uncertainty in the details but we will likely see a trend toward cooler conditions with a deepening marine layer allowing low clouds to spread farther inland during the nights and mornings. Current model solutions indicate that temperatures next Sat will be near or up to 11 degrees below normal.

AVIATION

131800Z...Coast/Western Valleys...Low clouds have cleared out of the western valleys and most of the coastal areas (including all TAF sites) this morning, though clouds look to stick to the beaches and immediate coastline through the late morning and into the afternoon hours. Low clouds fill back in beginning around 00-03z Sunday with bases initially around 900-1200ft MSL, eventually settling largely below 1000ft by 09z. Similar inland extent as this morning, with scattering back to the beaches by 15-16z Sunday.

Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday with high clouds AOA 10 kft MSL. Gusty onshore winds through San Gorgonio Pass into the Coachella Valley bringing gusts 20-25 kts this afternoon/evening.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

BEACHES

Elevated surf and strong rip currents continue at area beaches into next week. Surf of 3-6 feet and sets to 7 feet are expected at south- facing beaches. San Diego County Surf will be slightly lower but, hazardous swimming conditions with high rip current and longshore current risk will still exist. See the Beach Hazards Statement for more details.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm.