textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Fair and benign weather will continue this coming week, with only subtle variations. Temperatures will continue a little above average through Wednesday before lower pressure aloft brings cooler weather later in the week. The marine layer and coastal cloud coverage will continue similar through Wednesday, before deepening and extending clouds farther inland Thursday into Saturday. Expect westerly winds through mountains and into deserts to become a little stronger during the afternoons and evenings later this week.

..Updated Aviation Discussion Below

Coastal low clouds cleared relatively quickly this morning, and even cleared from most beaches completely today. The 12Z sounding showed the marine inversion this morning a little weaker than in recent mornings, allowing for a little better mixing between the humid marine layer and the dry warmer air above it, which led to the better clearing. Above average sea surface temperatures have also contributed to the weakening of the marine inversion. Meanwhile, the tepid monsoon intrusion continues, with a few cumulus clouds forming over the mountains this afternoon, and showers along the baja spine not too far south of the border. Our weather will continue more or less as is through Tuesday. The upper level pattern shows a very weak trough underlying a ridge along the West Coast, and no discernible change through Wednesday. It is June after all, when the polar jet stream heads north to summer in Canada. The marine layer will continue more or less at its current depth of about 1000-1500 feet deep, which will preclude low clouds and fog from entering the Inland Empire. Temperatures will remain just a few degrees above seasonal averages through Wednesday. The monsoon moisture, paltry as it is, will go away completely by Wednesday. Until then you might see a few mid level cumulus clouds each day through Tuesday, especially over the mountains during the afternoons. A low pressure trough begins to develop off the West Coast around Thursday and deepens Friday and Saturday as it moves through California. That will flip temperatures from a few degrees above average to a few degrees below starting Thursday. The marine layer will respond by deepening, extending the nocturnal clouds farther inland each night and morning. There should be stronger onshore winds through mountain passes and into deserts each afternoon and evening.

AVIATION

142330Z...Coast/Western Valleys...Low clouds cling to the immediate coast with a thicker band along coastal San Diego County with bases around 1300ft MSL. Patchy low clouds will begin to push inland at the beginning of the TAF period, slowly increasing in coverage over SD after 06-07Z, spreading inland 10-15 miles and north to OC with bases 800-1500ft MSL. VIS 0-5SM will be possible in valleys east of I-15 in SD County and elevated coastal terrain where cigs reach. Low clouds will begin to retreat after 15Z, clearing inland areas by 16- 17Z and coastal areas after 17-18Z.

Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mid level clouds AOA 15000ft MSL. Gusty onshore winds through desert slopes and the San Gorgonio Pass into the Coachella Valley have brought gusts 25-30 kts. These winds will begin to gradually weaken around 06-09Z.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

BEACHES

Elevated surf and strong rip currents continue at area beaches through Friday. Surf of 3-6 feet with sets to 7 feet are expected at south-facing beaches. San Diego County Surf will be slightly lower but, hazardous swimming conditions with high rip current and longshore current risk will still exist. See the Beach Hazards Statement for more details.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.