textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Periods of gusty Santa Ana winds will continue into Thursday with warmer high temperatures through Wednesday. For Thursday through Saturday, there will be slight day to day differences in high temperatures followed by a cooling trend for Sunday into the middle of next week. Night and morning coastal low clouds and fog could return as soon as late Thursday night.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Tonight through tomorrow night...

Strong and gusty winds due to moderate Santa Ana conditions will continue, especially by later this afternoon for some of the lower elevations as well once winds have mixed down to the surface. The strongest gusts will likely be felt in vicinity of Cajon Pass and also across the Tecate Divide in San Diego County (east of Pine Valley to Jacumba), where there could be winds occasionally gusting 50 to 55 mph at times. These winds will begin to decouple and diminish by later this evening and overnight. The clear skies will allow for some of the wind-sheltered valleys to get quite cold, and even a few areas could potentially see frost within some of the higher inland valleys. Winds will begin to increase again tomorrow during the day, although likely not be as strong as they will be today. Where there will still be winds, temperatures will be relatively warmer. The offshore winds will keep the skies mostly clear through at least tomorrow. Temperatures will also continue to warm, with highs begin warmer today from where they were yesterday, and the warmest day being tomorrow with highs running around 10 to 15 degrees above the seasonal average for this time of year, with mid 80s for the inland areas.

Thursday through Monday...

Mild to moderate Santa Ana conditions continue to impact the region with a slight uptick in wind strength on Thursday, although these will continue to diminish gradually by Friday and into the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens with the ridge expanding northwestward. As this occurs, the ridge axis will become more elongated and negatively tilted, which will act as a blocking pattern and keep the dry conditions persisting through the beginning of next week, with only a gradual cooldown as some troughing to the east over central CONUS does help to influence the region with cooler air advection from the north, although with the ridge still in control, along with weak downsloping winds, temperatures will remain above average. The offshore winds will predominantly keep any development of the marine layer mostly confined over the coastal waters, although there could be a return of some fog/low clouds moving in over portions of the coast and inland areas of San Diego and Orange counties beginning Thursday night into Friday morning. The development of the marine layer will continue to become more prevalent going into the weekend and into early. Looking beyond the forecast, ensembles are hinting at the possibility of a return of precipitation towards the mid part to end of next week.

AVIATION...131830Z

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions today and tonight. East to northeast winds 20-30 kts with isolated gusts to 40 kts in foothills and adjacent valleys. Mod up/downdrafts in lee of mountains. Localized LLWS Wed morning, but unlikely for any TAF site.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.