textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Scattered light showers will continue through this afternoon, tapering off this evening. A period of drier weather will occur on Friday. A series of weak but colder weather systems will bring more chances for light to moderate showers over the region for this weekend through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

The upper low has now moved inland over central CA. It brought periods of moderate to heavy rain across SoCal last night and this morning. Many locations have reported accumulations of 2+ inches since midnight. In some cases, most of the rainfall fell after 5 am as bands of showers moved inland. This resulted in some flooding in many areas. Most of the organized bands of showers have moved inland to the desert areas but more scattered and lighter showers will likely continue from the coast to the deserts through this afternoon. Showers will taper off overnight.

There will be somewhat of a break from the precip on Friday as a weak high pressure ridge moves over the west coast ahead of another low pressure system coming out of the Gulf of AK. Skies may be partly cloudy but temperatures will remain near or a little above seasonal averages.

Saturday through Wednesday...

The major shortwave trough upstream will continue to move in across the region throughout the weekend, with a steady band of rain pushing through by later in the evening on Saturday and into Sunday morning. The positively tilted axis with this trough will allow for a secondary wave to deepen in its wake going into the early part of next week with yet another trough moving in. This is where deterministic models begin to diverge more with the progression of the secondary trough. Some of the models (such as the ECMWF) have this system transitioning through much quicker, with a drier solution, whereas the GFS have the low deepening right over southern California, with a much better chance of precipitation occurring. The will continue to be evaluated in the upcoming days to see which model is resolving this feature the best, but it is safe to say the the overall active weather pattern will continue through at least the mid part of next week, as ensemble members suggest.

AVIATION

012100Z...SCT -SHRA moving northeast through the region. Clouds as low as 600-900 ft MSL under and just after -SHRA, with a overlying layer 2000-5500 ft MSL. Intermittent vis 3-6 SM with showers. -SHRA will become lighter and more isolated this afternoon, then taper off early this evening. Both cigs and vis will trend upwards this evening, then cigs will start to break up late evening and overnight, though SCT-BKN clouds 5000-7000 ft MSL will linger.

MARINE

Winds will continue to diminish this afternoon and evening. No hazardous marine weather conditions expected through Monday, though there will be periods of breezy south winds through the weekend.

BEACHES

High tides of 6.5 to 7 feet this weekend could lead to minor coastal overflow/flooding for beaches and flood-prone beach lots and walkways.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

PZ...None.