textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Dry and warmer through the end of the week, with high temperatures rising to as much as 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages. High clouds and weak offshore flow will continue through Tuesday, then weak onshore flow returns with increasing chances for a return of marine layer low clouds later in the week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Evening update... A few thin high clouds were moving over the region this evening. Surface pressure gradients are trending slightly stronger offshore, currently around -8 mb SAN-TPH and -2.7 mb SAN-DAG. This should be enough to keep any stratus that develops out to sea, where the HREF has a 10-20% of low clouds. Chances at the coast are less than 10%. Main change to the forecast this evening is that winds are looking stronger for Wednesday as onshore gradients increase and a weak trough passes by to the north.

Previous discussion... Numerical models remain in good agreement through Friday with respect to the evolution of the synoptic pattern. A ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate the weather over SoCal and daytime temperatures will steadily rise. High temps today will generally be above seasonal averages and range from a few degrees above seasonal averages in the mtns and deserts to as much as 12 degrees above seasonal averages in the inland valleys. Friday will likely be the warmest day with daytime high temps reaching the low to mid 80s in the inland valleys and the low 90s in the lower deserts. These numbers are as much as 16 degrees above seasonal averages in the valleys and up to 17 degrees above seasonal averages in the lower deserts.

Weak offshore flow will persist into Tuesday and high-resolution models indicate that marine layer low clouds/fog are unlikely to return before Wed. The return of onshore flow will increase the chances for a return of coastal low clouds/fog for Wed through the end of the work-week.

Model solutions diverge as we move into next weekend so forecast confidence is quite low for that time-frame. A significant number of ensemble members show a low pressure system moving in from the northwest. This could bring cooler conditions with increasing clouds. The potential for precipitation is there but at this time, only a very small number of ensemble members are indicating precip.

AVIATION

230400Z...VFR with FEW-SCT cirrus AOA 25,000 ft through the TAF period.

MARINE

No marine hazards are expected through Friday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.