textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Periods of rain, wind, and mountain snow are expected into Thursday. Friday through Monday will be warmer and drier with high temperatures warming to around 5 degrees above average on Monday. Daily precipitation chances for Friday through Sunday will decrease to 10 to 20 percent with chances increasing again early next week.

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)

Showers are expected to diminish into this morning with limited coverage for this afternoon and early evening. The next round of more widespread showers with heavier precipitation is expected for late tonight into Wednesday morning. An additional round with more widespread coverage, though with lesser amounts, is expected for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Please refer to the HYDROLOGY section below for more details.

Showers have continued overnight with some thunder as well since late Monday evening. The next round of stronger south to southwest winds will strengthen today and tonight and continue into Wednesday. For the coast and valleys, the strongest winds are expected for late this evening through early Wednesday and be similar in strength to those on Monday. For the mountains and deserts, peak gusts along and below the desert slopes of the mountains are expected to be stronger than on Monday with the stronger gusts to around 75 mph.

Wednesday is expected to be the coolest day this week with high temperatures for the coast and valleys mostly in the 50s with high temperatures in the lower deserts around 60. These high temperatures are as much as 15 to 20 degrees below average for the higher mountains.

LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)

Daily precipitation chances will decrease to 10 to 20 percent for Friday through Sunday, then begin to increase again for early next week. High temperatures will warm each day for Friday through Monday with high temperatures on Monday around 5 degrees above average, ranging from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the lower to mid 70s for the valleys with the lower deserts around 80.

AVIATION

1225Z...Coast and Valleys...Isolated to SCT SHRA today. Cloud bases mostly above 3000 feet MSL, but down to 2000-3000 feet MSL in SHRA. After 03Z, southwest winds increase 20-30 kts, cigs lower to 2000- 3000 feet MSL and RA increases overnight. Areas of +RA will bring cigs down to 900 feet MSL and vis down to 1-2SM.

Mountains/Deserts...Cloud obscurations in the mountains and vis reduced to 0-2SM as RA/SN move through Riverside and San Diego Counties through 16Z. Occasional SHRA/SHSN thereafter. Southwest wind gusts of 20-30 kts with gusts up to 40 kts continue. Gusts gradually increase after 02Z tonight into Wednesday, with gusts 50- 65+ kts expected for mountain peaks and desert mountain slopes. RA/SN to increase after 06Z into Wednesday lowering cigs and obscuring more terrain.

MARINE

Gales will redevelop this evening and continue through Wednesday, generating hazardous boating conditions. Check the Gale Warning for details. After another lull, strong winds will redevelop Thursday, likely producing hazardous conditions once again. Conditions will improve Friday and Saturday.

BEACHES

High surf of 4 to 9 feet is expected, with sets as high as 11 feet, highest in San Diego County on Wednesday. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. A High Surf Advisory is in effect through Friday and contains more details.

HYDROLOGY

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through sunrise, followed by diminishing showers for today into this evening. The next round of more widespread showers with heavier precipitation is expected for late tonight into Wednesday morning. An additional round of more widespread showers is expected for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, though with lesser totals than for previous rounds this week. Additional rainfall and liquid-equivalent for early this morning into this evening will range from less than 0.25 inch for coastal areas to 0.25 to 0.50 inch for the mountains with less than 0.10 inch for the deserts.

For late tonight through Wednesday morning, precipitation totals will range from 0.25 to 0.50 inch for coastal areas to 1 to 1.5 inches in the mountains, locally to around 2 inches. For the deserts, 0.25 to 0.50 inches is expected for the Apple and Lucerne Valleys with 0.10 to 0.25 inch for the lower deserts. For late tonight into Wednesday morning, peak hourly rainfall rates of 0.50 to 0.75 inch are expected.

For Thursday night into Friday, additional rainfall and liquid- equivalent above the snow level will range from 0.25 to 0.33 inch near the coast to 0.75 to 1 inch for the mountains, locally exceeding 1.25 inch.

The San Diego River at Fashion Valley crested Monday evening below monitor stage. There could be a second crest this morning, this one above monitor stage, as water from farther upstream flows downstream and through Fashion Valley. An additional crest above monitor stage is forecast for around noon on Wednesday. Crests above monitor stage are sufficient to begin flooding of low-water crossings in Mission Valley.

The snow level will remain around 5000 to 5500 feet today into this evening, then fall to around 3500 to 4500 feet on Wednesday. A snow level around 3500 to 4000 feet for Wednesday night will rise to around 4500 to 5000 feet on Thursday.

Through Wednesday morning, additional snowfall of 6 to 12 inches is expected from 5000 to 6000 feet, 12 to 18 inches from 6000 to 7000 feet, locally exceeding 24 inches above 8000 feet. The most widespread and heaviest snowfall is expected for late tonight into into early Wednesday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM PST early this morning for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PST Wednesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire- San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys- Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Wednesday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...Gale Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm- Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.