textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Well above average temperatures will continue through the weekend. Low clouds with areas of fog will be present tonight into Friday morning, with low clouds and fog less likely over the weekend due to widespread high clouds. Cooler, windier, and potentially wetter conditions possible for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

High temperatures today are expected to be similar to yesterday's with multiple inland locations forecast to break or tie their daily high temperature records. The list of locations that broke or tied their daily high or low temperature records yesterday is on our weather.gov/sandiego homepage. Record breaking temperatures for inland locations will continue through Sunday.

High temperatures for inland locations will peak Friday through Sunday with areas of moderate HeatRisk in the valleys and deserts. On Saturday, high temperatures are expected to run 20 to 25 degrees above average for inland areas. Areas of low clouds and fog are expected along the coast tonight into Friday morning, with coverage of low clouds becoming patchier Saturday and Sunday.

A pattern change is expected next week as an area of low pressure approaches the US West Coast. We have high confidence that the incoming area of low pressure temperatures will cool conditions back to near average for this time of year by next Wednesday. Additionally, winds should increase over the mountains and deserts although how windy it gets will be largely dependent on the track of the low. There remains some uncertainty in the timing of the low's passage, with most solutions showing the low passing sometime Wednesday or Thursday. About 50 percent of solutions keep the West Coast under the low's influence into Friday.

The track of the low will also have implications on our precipitation chances. ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance has trended drier on the most recent runs compared to previous runs. This is likely due to trends in the guidance that are keeping the low further north with more of an inside track by the time it reaches Southern California. There are still some solutions showing the potential for at least light precipitation as early as Tuesday night continuing through as late as Friday. Current forecast has the highest chances of rain Wednesday. Probability of 72-hr rainfall totals exceeding 0.25" are highest in the San Bernardino County mountains at 30 to 40 percent and 15 to 25 percent elsewhere.

AVIATION

270000Z...Low clouds will return along the coast this evening after 02Z-03Z Friday and gradually increase in coverage (07Z-09Z) with bases 300-800ft MSL. Reduced vis 0-5SM will be possible in fog on higher coastal terrain and western valleys. Vis restrictions expected 3-6SM for coastal TAF sites, and locally lower. Conditions will improve after 16Z-19Z Friday. Low clouds will reform and fill back in by around 03-04Z Saturday.

Otherwise, mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions expected through Tuesday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.