textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through Sunday across the mountains to the coast as an area of low pressure moves over the region with much warmer weather expected on Sunday. This weather system will move southward into Mexico, where there is a chance for light rain over San Diego County by Sunday evening through Monday evening. As the system exits, cooler weather moves over the region for Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will move over the area by Wednesday into the end of next week, bringing the potential for very warm temperatures yet again with dry weather.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

An area of low pressure has moved over the region, bringing minimal cloud cover with a lot of wind! As the low pushes further to the south in Mexico, winds will become more easterly around the system. This will favor highest winds over the Riverside and San Diego County coastal slopes and valleys tonight into Sunday. Most areas in the foothill regions will see winds 25-40 MPH. Model guidance shows around a 50-50 chance of seeing winds over 25 MPH along the North County (SD Co.) coast, over 35 MPH at Ramona and over 45 MPH at Idyllwild; the most widespread winds expected to occur on Sunday afternoon. Winds will remain elevated along the across the IE/OC regions with winds 25-45 MPH across the lower elevations. A quick warm up will ensue on Sunday as well with most areas warming up 10 more degrees than they are today. Our warmest region will be downslope of the Santa Ana mountains in Orange County with highs in the lower 90s expected, so please stay cool out there.

Hi-res models continue to show areas of light precip, mainly spreading from east to west across San Diego at times Sunday evening through Monday evening. Slight increase in PWAT and moisture at the surface is seen. Surface RH looks drier by Monday, so precip will have the hardest time falling during this time period. The best chances to see light rainfall will be across the southern portions of the SD Co mountains. Some rain may fall across the San Diego metro, but whatever does fall, will be light.

The area of low pressure over Baja California will begin to move eastward on Monday and Tuesday. This will bring weaker Santa Ana winds to the region on Monday and a turn to onshore flow on Tuesday. This pattern change will aid in high temperatures returning to those similar of today with highs closer to average. A strong high pressure system that is currently over the North Pac, will begin to move over the region by Wednesday into the end of next week. This system looks hotter as the high may peak near 588-590 mb, quite strong for this time of year. Mostly sunny with dry weather and very warm temperatures with highs near 15-20 degrees above normal will stick around by Thursday into at least next weekend.

AVIATION

080545Z....Coast/Valleys/Coastal Slopes...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with increasing clouds from the south above 5 kft MSL after 22z Sun.

As of 06z, wind gusts below 20 kts this evening for much of the lowlands, though remains 25-40 kts (locally higher) along coastal slopes and within 10-15 miles downwind of Banning/Cajon passes (including KONT). With winds remaining strong aloft, areas of LLWS are possible where the sfc winds diminish, downwind of NE flow tonight (i.e. KSNA, KSBD). E/NE winds pick up once again across the entire coastal basin after 15z Sun gusting 20-35 kts in the lowlands and 35-50 kts along coastal slopes and downwind of passes. Between 19-22z Sun, winds turn southerly (gusts 15-20 kts) at the coast, then weaken gradually elsewhere after 00z Mon.

Current water vapor satellite shows mountain waves present across most of the area. Moderate to strong up/downdrafts can be expected west of the mountains through the TAF period.

Deserts/Desert Slopes...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Gusts in adjacent slopes remain elevated through the period. Surface NE winds increase after 15z Sun, though gusts in the valleys are likely to remain below 30 kts. Winds decrease gradually after 00z Mon.

Moderate to strong up/downdrafts through the TAF period as continuing strong mid-level E/NE winds generate mountain waves over the Coachella Valley.

MARINE

Elevated N/NW winds through Sunday morning turn out of the south Sunday afternoon with gusts nearing 20 knots, primarily for the inner coastal waters. Otherwise, no additional hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST Sunday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

PZ...None.