textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through this afternoon across the mountains to the coast as an area of low pressure spins to our south. This weather system will bring the chance for light rain showers tonight through Monday night over San Diego County. As the system exits, cooler weather moves over the region for Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will move over the area by Wednesday into the end of the week, bringing the potential for very warm weather.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Satellite shows an area of low pressure off the coast of central Baja California this afternoon. The system is contributing to the easterly flow aloft, which is giving breezy conditions to the mountains this morning. This will continue to spread all the way to the coast into the afternoon. Easterly winds will favor the greatest winds across the the Riverside and San Diego County coastal slopes and valleys through the early evening hours. Widespread winds of 25- 45 MPH will be expected across the valleys, 20-30 MPH near the coast, and locally near 55 MPH along the coastal mountain slopes. Hot temperatures are also out there this afternoon with San Diego shooting into the mid to upper 80s, potentially breaking the record high of 85 degrees for the day.

Hi-res models show clouds from the low pressure system moving northward into our region this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across San Diego County and central Riverside County. Slight increases in moisture are noted on Sunday night across southern San Diego County, but drier air at the surface will make it difficult for rain to reach the ground. A better chance for light rainfall will be by Monday afternoon and evening as the area of low pressure moves inland across Baja California. Whatever falls will be light with most areas seeing a few hundredths at best, some areas over one tenth of an inch in the southern parts of the SD Co mountains. As the system begins to push east, we can expect much cooler weather conditions west of the mountains, with slight cooling across the mountains and deserts. Confidence is pretty high for areas near the coast to stay in the upper 60s with some spots in the lower deserts staying in the 70s.

A strong area of high pressure that has been sitting off the coast over the past couple of days will begin to move eastward over our area by Wednesday, anchoring itself over us into next weekend. This system will be a warm one as 850mb temps soar around 10C above normal. near 15-20+ degrees above normal will stick around by Thursday into at least next weekend. As of now, the warmest days will be on Thursday and Friday where NBM shows moderate to high chances in seeing highs over 95 degrees from the Inland Empire, OC/SD valleys, and the lower deserts. This will lead to increased heat risk for those that work outdoors, elderly, etc., so make sure to plan for the hot weather ahead. The high may weaken slightly next weekend, with a few degrees of cooling, but dry and warm weather looks to prevail for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION

090600Z...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period through mid/high level clouds will continue to stream in from the south from a nearby storm system. A few SHRA are possible after 12z Monday, primarily across the San Diego County mountains, though some showers may spread westward into the adjacent foothills/valleys. The chance for any showers to impact KSAN or KCRQ are less than 10%, but may briefly bring MVFR CIGs/VIS should one pass overhead. Shower chances decrease by 03-06z Tuesday.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.