textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts will gradually diminish through Thursday with gusts to 35 to 45 mph today and 30 to 40 mph for Thursday. Winds will then strengthen again for Friday into Saturday with gusts on Saturday to 40 to 50 mph. High temperatures will warm to around average on Thursday and Friday, then cool 5 to 10 degrees for inland areas for the weekend. There is a chance of showers over the weekend, mainly from Saturday into early Sunday.

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)

Any residual light showers are expected to end by sunrise. Southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts will gradually diminish through Thursday with gusts to 35 to 45 mph today and 30 to 40 mph for Thursday, then begin to strengthen again on Friday.

High temperatures today will be cooler for the mountains and deserts, generally around 5 degrees below average for inland areas. High temperatures will warm to around average for Thursday and Friday with high temperatures ranging from around 70 near the coast to the mid 70s to lower 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)

A low pressure system off the California coast on Friday with a subtropical feed of moisture will move into central and southern California during the weekend bringing a chance of precipitation with NBM chances greatest on Saturday night. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index has rainfall in the 60th to 70th percentile for San Diego County for late Saturday afternoon through late Sunday afternoon. This is more a reflection of southern California moving into a climatologically drier time of the year than of any particularly significant rainfall being expected though NBM thunder probabilities do increase to 10 to 12 percent for Saturday night. The currently dry forecast from the coastal waters to the mountains for Saturday night into Sunday morning does not reflect what is expected.

Southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts will strengthen again over the weekend with ensemble guidance not too different in the strength from the winds in the mountains and deserts since Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 to 50 mph with isolated gusts to 65 mph.

Some drying is expected for Sunday into Monday. Chances for precipitation will increase again for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, but with lower confidence in the details.

AVIATION

220930Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT to locally BKN low clouds will continue, mostly in valleys this morning. Bases will be around 2000- 5000 feet MSL, with isolated terrain obscurations. Any cigs that develop will not last long and full scatter out should occur by 17Z. Low clouds will struggle to reform after 03Z with only patchy coverage around 2500 feet MSL most likely in San Diego County.

Mountains/Deserts...Strong southwest to west winds will continue, strongest gusts 25-35 kts mainly over ridges and on desert slopes. Winds decrease this morning, but then increase after 22Z. Gusts 25- 35 kts, locally 40 kts through passes and along desert slopes. Local up/downdrafts in lee of mountains and patchy BLDU reducing vis in the deserts.

MARINE

West-northwest winds will gust 20-25 kts in the outer waters this afternoon through tonight, generating choppy and hazardous conditions. More details can be found in the Small Craft Advisory. No additional hazardous marine conditions are expected Thursday through Sunday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM PDT this morning for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.