textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Warmer and drier weather this week, further warming this weekend. Gusty west winds Wednesday and Thursday, weakening late week and into Saturday. Rain chances return early to mid next week as the next system moves across, along with cooler weather.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a deepening low off the coast of Central CA, poised to continue it's southward track. As previously forecasted, this low should become an open trough and slide across Baja CA Thursday, stunting the warming that has been observed this week. At this point, the moisture profile is not conducive for much if any precipitation as this system moves through, and practically all mention of QPF have been removed from the forecast. Instead, the further south slide of the trough will bring about gusty west to southwest winds to the deserts and mountains, primarily Thursday afternoon, where gusts may exceed 30 mph at times, even higher for mountain passes and desert slopes.

As the system moves into the the Desert Southwest Thursday, weak mid level ridging fills in its spot and we will quickly warm for the end of the week and into the weekend. The thermal ridge axis will set up over SoCal on Saturday, expected to be the hottest day, with highs in the 70s for the coasts and mountains, 80s for inland spots and High Desert, and upper 90s for the low deserts, or around 5-12 degrees above normal.

Heading into early next week, a very large low on the backside of the ridge will meander into the CA coastline, bringing our next chance for precipitation. While moisture seems to be more consistent between model runs with this next low, this far out, significant disagreements on the track of the low exist between the global models. Any precipitation and/or wind impacts from this next system will not be nailed out until better agreement is seen.

AVIATION... 281730Z.

Winds will pick up after 22-23Z in the mountain passes and adjacent deserts with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Low clouds begin to trickle in along the coast after 02-03Z Wednesday, filling in and pushing inland slightly after 07Z. Cloud bases are expected to be around 2000-3000ft MSL. Otherwise, VFR conditions and SCT-BKN high clouds expected through the TAF period. .

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected today through Saturday.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.