textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

The thick band of mid and high level moisture and clouds will move east of the area by early this afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, followed by a warming trend into next weekend with widespread moderate or greater HeatRisk for the coast and valleys for Thursday through Sunday with near record warm overnight temperatures for Friday through Sunday.

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)

Mid and high level moisture from former Hurricane Odalys continues to stream northeastward and across about the southeastern half of southern California early this morning. A band of mostly light showers is across about the southeastern third of San Diego County with hourly rainfall of less than one- tenth inch per hour. The greatest totals since Sunday are in the far southern San Diego County valleys and mountains with 0.15 to 0.25 inch through midnight. The western edge of the showers will move slowly to the east overnight with the band of thicker mid and high clouds decreasing from the northwest during this morning.

High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, followed by warming on Tuesday and greater inland warming on Wednesday. With the warming, high temperatures on Wednesday will range from around 80 near the coast to the upper 80s to mid 90s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the upper 90s.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)

High pressure aloft will continue the warming trend into next weekend with only slight cooling on Sunday. Widespread moderate or greater HeatRisk is expected for the coast and valleys for Thursday through Sunday with widespread major HeatRisk for inland coastal areas into the western San Diego County valleys for next weekend.

High temperatures for next weekend will range from a few degrees above average for the lower deserts to as much as 12 to 18 degrees above average for the coast and valleys in San Diego County. High temperatures for next weekend will range from the 80s near the coast to the mid 90s to around 100 for the inland valleys with the lower deserts around 100.

For next weekend, low temperatures for the Orange County coastal plain, and for the coast and western valleys in San Diego County will be mostly in the lower to mid 70s. For Friday through Sunday, there could be several records tied or broken for record warm low temperatures, mostly for coastal and valley locations. The existing records for some of those locations was from 1997.

AVIATION

280530Z...BKN middle and high clouds above 9 kft MSL with -RA mainly in San Diego County and central Riverside County overnight. These clouds and -RA will gradually clear from northwest to southeast overnight. Very patchy low clouds based at around 1500 feet MSL at the coast are expected between 11-17Z Monday. Any cigs at coastal airports would be very brief and intermittent. Some cumulus based at around 10 kft should develop over mountains 19-01Z Monday. Otherwise, mostly clear regionwide through Monday, with some coastal low clouds beginning to develop Monday eve after 03Z.

MARINE

Northwest winds are expected gusting to 20-25 knots in the outer waters, along with choppy seas Monday afternoon and evening. The Small Craft Advisory contains more details. No hazardous marine conditions are expected Tuesday through Friday.

BEACHES

Southwesterly swell (3-4 ft at 13 seconds from ~200 degrees) from Hurricane Odalys persists into Monday, bringing surf of 3-5 feet with sets up to 6 feet, highest along south and southwest facing beaches. A swell from Hurricane Polo (~4 ft at 12-13 seconds from 160-170 degrees) then increases on Monday. Given this direction, most of San Diego County beaches will be largely sheltered from this swell, but Orange County beaches (especially in north OC) should be impacted. Meanwhile, a northwesterly swell (3-4 ft at 7 seconds from ~280 degrees) arrives later today and Monday. Between these two swells, surf of 3-5 feet with sets to 6 feet looks probable along south/southwest facing beaches with surf 3-5 feet along west-facing beaches through Tuesday. With this elevated surf, there is a high risk for strong rip and longshore currents through Tuesday.

Tides are already observed over 6.8 feet and are expected to peak around 7.0ft for the late-morning high tides on Monday-Wednesday, highest on Tuesday. A Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect through tonight due to the risk of minor tidal overflow and minor coastal erosion. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from early Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon to account for the highest tides combining with the expected elevated surf. Primary impacts during the morning high tides Monday-Wednesday will be minor coastal flooding in low lying areas in addition to coastal erosion.

Please note - listed tide predictions have been adjusted to reflect actual measured tide observations.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM PDT Monday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.