textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Gradual warming and dry weather through Friday with highs increasing to as much as 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Patchy marine layer low clouds may develop Tuesday into Wednesday as onshore flow develops, otherwise variable high cloud cover and weak offshore flow will prevail for much of the week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Evening update... Scattered high clouds are moving east across the region this evening along the north edge of a weak upper level ridge of high pressure. Surface pressure gradients remain weakly offshore, currently around -2.5 LAX-DAG and -5.4 SAN-TPH. Weak offshore flow combined with the normal drainage flow/land breeze should be enough to prevent any fog development tonight, and HREF probabilities of low clouds/fog are less than 10%. Tonight won't be nearly as cold as last night, with highs generally in the upper 30s to upper 40s west of the mountains and in the low deserts, low to mid 30s in the high desert, and low 20s to upper 30s in the mountains. No changes to the forecast this evening with warmer and dry weather prevailing through the week.

Previous discussion... A warming trend has begun today as a high pressure ridge builds over the western US. This ridge will dominate our weather pattern through next week, bringing fair and warm weather. Temperatures will trend upward through Monday then fluctuate from day to day peaking again next Friday. On Monday, temperatures will reach the low 80s in the inland valleys and lower deserts...anywhere from 8 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. All other areas will also be warmer than normal. Next Friday, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s west of the mtns and in the low 90s in the lower deserts...12 to 18 degrees above seasonal averages.

Timing the return of marine layer clouds/fog in the coastal areas is uncertain at best but it seems unlikely that they will return before Tuesday. Some models indicate a return of the marine layer clouds/fog for next Wednesday as a shortwave trough passes to the north and weakens the ridge but confidence in this outcome remains low.

AVIATION

220600Z...VFR and mostly clear skies expected through the TAF period. FEW-SCT cirrus AOA 25,000ft MSL persisting into Sunday evening.

MARINE

No marine hazards are expected through Thursday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.