textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Widespread mid to high level clouds and periods of light to locally moderate precipitation will continue today. There is a slight (5- 10%) chance of thunderstorms, mainly over the San Bernardino Mountains and High Desert this afternoon. Warming high and low temperatures through the middle of next week. Slight chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through the middle of the week. Gradual cooling into next weekend.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Widespread cloud coverage is being observed this morning associated with moisture from Tropical Cyclone Marie. Light to locally moderate showers have been observed across much of the area through the morning, with the bulk of the rain at 11 AM north of San Diego County. There remains a 5 to 10 percent chance of thunderstorms over the San Bernardino Mountains and High Desert this afternoon. Current forecast has an additional 0.30 to 0.50 inches of rain accumulating over the San Bernardino Mountains, with an additional 0.05 to 0.15 inches elsewhere north of San Diego County. Less than 0.05 inches of additional rain are expected for San Diego County.

Lingering moisture tomorrow and Tuesday will continue chances of precipitation, mainly over the mountains. Afternoon shower and potentially thunderstorm chances will continue into Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will build from the south for the middle of the week which will turn the upper level flow southeasterly. Currently Wednesday looks like the most likely day for showers and thunderstorms to develop over the mountains in the afternoon. Low confidence in details surrounding rainfall rates at this time. Shower and thunderstorm chances have decreased for Thursday, with the potential for the ridge of high pressure moving right over Southern California, which would result in a very stable air mass aloft.

High temperatures Monday are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, with less cloud coverage expected. High temperatures will continue to increase into Wednesday for areas west of the mountains and Thursday for the deserts. Above average high and low temperatures can be expected for the majority of this week. Widespread minor to moderate HeatRisk is expected for inland areas Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION

061800Z...Coast/Valleys/Mountains...Mid/high level clouds SCT-OVC AOA 10,000-20,000ft will persist through the TAF period. Ongoing -RA for Orange and Riverside counties, spreading into San Bernardino County currently. Intermittent VIS down to 2-4SM with -RA. VCSH elsewhere, clearing San Diego County over the next two hours. Highest rain expected in SB Mountains. Generally light winds below 10 mph. BKN050 or lower with any -RA. Isolated TSRA over mountain areas, especially in the SB mountains, through 00z Mon. Precipitation will end after 03z.

Deserts...Mid/high level clouds SCT-OVC AOA 10,000-20,000ft will persist through the TAF period. VCSH through 22z with instances of -SHRA in the High Desert. Otherwise, VFR with no significant impacts expected.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

BEACHES

A large south swell from Hurricane Marie is set to peak today into Monday before gradually diminishing Tuesday. This will result in elevated to high surf and strong rip and longshore currents at the majority of beaches. Additionally, waves will occasionally run much farther up the beach than expected, especially during increasing and high tides.

For south and southwest-facing beaches, expecting high surf 6-10 feet. This includes Orange County and north San Diego County beaches. For west-facing beaches, expecting elevated surf 4-7 feet. This includes most of southern San Diego County beaches.

High surf combined with high astronomical tides 6.2 to about 6.8 feet will lead to tidal overflow and coastal flooding through Tuesday during evening high tides, especially for south and southwest-facing beaches as well as low-lying areas.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

High Surf Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.