textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Warmer through Saturday with moderate HeatRisk for the coast and western valleys on Friday and Saturday. Night and morning low clouds and fog will stay confined to the coastal areas for the next few nights. There is a slight chance of showers over the mountains this afternoon. Tropical mid and high level moisture will bring more clouds and a chance of showers on Sunday followed by drying from the northwest some time for Monday into Tuesday. Warmer for Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for the coast and valleys.

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)

A weak upper level low pressure system off the coast of northern Baja will bring an increase in mid-level monsoonal moisture today with a slight chance of showers for the mountains for this afternoon. This moisture will then decrease for tonight and Friday with the drying continuing into Saturday. The marine layer is around 2000 feet deep and is expected to continue to slowly decrease in depth into Saturday with night and morning coastal low clouds spreading inland late each night into the western valleys.

High temperatures will continue to warm a few degrees per day for the coast into the western valleys through Saturday with lesser changes elsewhere. For Saturday, high temperatures for the mountains, deserts, and Inland Empire will be around 5 degrees above average with Orange County 5 to 10 degrees above average and the coast and western valleys in San Diego County 10 to 15 degrees above average. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the 80s near the coast to the 90s for the valleys with 100 to 104 for the lower deserts. Low temperatures early Saturday will be 5 to 10 degrees above average at lower elevations to as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average for the San Diego County mountains. This will result in moderate HeatRisk on Friday and Saturday and isolated major HeatRisk on Saturday for the Orange County coastal plain and for the coast into the valleys in San Diego County.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)

For late Saturday night into Sunday and possibly Monday, mid and high level moisture from tropical cyclones Odalys and Polo will spread into the area from the southwest and south. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A low pressure system moving inland through California is expected to bring drying from the northwest some time Monday into Tuesday.

High temperatures on Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler and another few to 5 degrees cooler for Monday with Monday high temperatures near average near the coast and around 5 degrees below average for inland areas. High temperatures on Monday will range from the 70s near the coast to the lower to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the lower 90s.

High pressure aloft is expected to bring warming for Tuesday and Wednesday. If east to northeast winds develop, there could be additional warming for the coast and valleys on those days.

AVIATION

241130Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based near 1200 feet MSL will continue to cover coastal areas and western valleys this morning. Some inland vis reduced 3-5SM. Scatter out 16-19Z. Low clouds based around 1000-1200 feet MSL to move ashore after 02Z, but in somewhat random fashion. Eventually, a very similar areal coverage is expected by early Friday.

Otherwise...mostly clear today and tonight. Except for SCT cumulus based near 10 kft over mountains and isolated SHRA/TSRA 20-01Z. Any storm that develops will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds, lightning, and vis reductions.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.

BEACHES

Southerly swell from Hurricane Polo is expected to increase Sunday, peak Monday, and decrease Tuesday. Preliminary indications with low to moderate confidence today show a swell of 3-4 feet with a period of 14-16 seconds coming from a direction of 160-190 degrees. Elevated surf and high tides will combine to increase chances for coastal flooding and beach erosion during the high tides of 6.5 to 7.0 feet between 10 and 11 AM Sunday through Tuesday (listed tide predictions have been adjusted to reflect actual measured tide observations). Stay tuned as details become clearer in coming days.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.