textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Weak offshore flow will continue into Sunday. Gradual warming expected into Monday, then gradually cooler for the middle of next week with a chance of precipitation for late next week. Tides will remain elevated through much of next week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

At 11 AM, the pressure gradient from San Diego to Tonopah, NV was running 5.6 mb offshore. Winds had come down from their peak with only place with wind gusts over 30 mph was directly below the Cajon Pass. Earlier today gusts to 45 mph were observed near the Cajon Pass. Weak offshore flow will continue into Sunday, becoming weakly onshore by Monday. Given the unsettled weather quickly turning to offshore flow, marine layer low clouds and fog will be absent from the coast this weekend. It's possible low clouds could return to some locations Monday morning, with higher confidence for low clouds returning by Tuesday morning.

High temperatures on Sunday are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than today with another degree or two of warming expected on Monday. By Monday, high temperatures in coastal areas will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, with temperatures closer to average further inland. Temperatures will begin to trend below average by the end of the week.

Global ensembles are indicating the potential for unsettled weather for the end of next week. There remains a lot of spread in solutions and uncertainty in the details. Rain chances are in the forecast as early as Friday. In addition to precipitation, cooler, cloudier, and windier conditions may develop. Please be prepared for more wet weather impacts, especially as you start to make those Halloween weekend plans.

AVIATION

241730Z...Generally VFR conditions across the region through the period. N/NE winds strengthen through (and south of) the Cajon Pass and along south-facing mountain slopes with gusts 20-35 kts through early this afternoon. Winds weaken and eventually diminish late this afternoon and evening, but will remain weakly offshore, enough to keep most if not all low clouds from forming. 10% or less chance for cigs vcnty KSAN.

MARINE

Winds gusts near 20 knots possible in the outer coastal waters Monday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

BEACHES

Daily high tides will create significant coastal flooding starting Sunday. Tides will be anywhere from 1 to 1.7 feet above astronomical predictions. Morning high tides were just over 7 feet this morning, and are likely to exceed 7.5 or even 8 feet starting Monday morning. While surf will not be elevated, these will be near if not record- breaking tides. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the entire Orange and San Diego coastline Sunday morning through Thursday morning.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.