textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Clearer skies with warmer weather will occur this weekend with locally gusty Santa Ana winds along the slopes of the northern coastal basin. Fair and benign weather will be expected through the middle of next week with temperatures near normal. A larger troughing pattern will develop by the end of next week, bringing cooler weather with uncertainty in timing and specific amounts of any precipitation.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

The area of low pressure that has been giving us clouds and showers will begin to move out of the region, bringing clearer and drier weather today. Behind it, northerly flow aloft will allow for weaker Santa Ana winds to funnel through the mountains and valleys of San Bernardino and Riverside Counties this morning and afternoon. Most areas will be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. These winds die off by Sunday, as a weak troughing pattern prevails over the region into the middle of next week. High temperatures creep up a bit more on Sunday with a better chance to see highs reach 80 degrees across the western valleys. Little day to day changes can be expected Sunday through about Wednesday with mostly clear skies and minimal changes in temperatures with highs within 5 degrees of average.

The weather across SoCal becomes more interesting for the latter half of next week as a troughing pattern develops over the West Coast. An area of low pressure is expected to develop around Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest. Models show larger scale troughing starting to develop over the West Coast by Thursday into next weekend, but to what magnitude and location is still yet to be determined. Confidence is starting to increase on seeing temperatures cool back to below average during this period. Ensemble model guidance begins to show increasing chances for precipitation around next Friday into the weekend. NBM rain chances match with this general idea for the official forecast. Since we are one week out, timing and exact precipitation amounts are greatly uncertain. Please be prepared for more wet weather impacts, especially as you start to make those Halloween weekend plans.

AVIATION

240530Z...Generally VFR conditions across the region, though -SHRA/SHRA will continue off and on for the next few hours in portions of San Diego County and in the Coachella Valley. Low clouds based 3-7 kft will slowly SCT overnight with SKC expected across the region by sunrise Sat. N/NE winds gusting 25-35 kts develop starting 06-09z through (and south of) the Cajon Pass and along south-facing mountain slopes. Winds weaken and eventually diminish Saturday afternoon and evening.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.

BEACHES

Astronomical high tides will create significant coastal flooding starting Sunday. Tides will be anywhere from 1 to 1.7 feet above predictions. Morning high tides could reach near 7 feet Saturday morning and are likely to exceed 7.5 or 8 feet by Monday morning. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the entire Orange and San Diego coastline Sunday morning through Thursday morning.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.