textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

The center of Hurricane Marie is expected to remain well to the southwest of the area through the holiday weekend. Surf from Marie will begin to arrive tonight and is expected peak on Sunday, then only slowly subside for Monday into Tuesday. Mid and high level moisture from Marie will bring the greatest chances for showers on Sunday. Then warmer and gradually drier for Monday through Wednesday of next week.

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)

Hurricane Marie remains on a track toward the west-northwest with the center to remain well to the southwest of the area through the holiday weekend. The current NHC forecast has Marie weakening to a tropical storm on Sunday.

A dry air mass remains in place across inland areas early today and high temperatures for inland areas will remain around 5 to 10 degrees below average for today. High temperatures for today will range from the mid 70s near the coast to the mid to upper 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts around 100.

Swell and resulting surf from Hurricane Marie will begin to increase for the beaches for Orange and San Diego Counties for tonight and Saturday with the highest surf for late Saturday night into Sunday evening with the the highest surf from Oceanside northward.

Mid and high level moisture from Marie will begin to increase from the south for late tonight and Saturday with a chance of showers for portions of San Diego County on Saturday afternoon. The moisture will continue to increase and spread northward for Saturday night and Sunday.

For Sunday night and Monday, the chance for 0.25 inch or more of rainfall for the coast and valleys is 5 to 15 percent. For the mountains, the chance for 0.25 inch or more of rainfall is 20 to 40 percent with the chance for one inch or more less than 10 percent. Thunderstorm probabilities remain highest on Sunday afternoon, but are now less than 15 percent.

LONG TERM (Labor Day through Thursday)

Higher surf will continue into Labor Day, then slowly subside into Tuesday and Wednesday. Mid and higher level tropical moisture will be decreasing on Labor Day into Tuesday.

Warmer nights will continue into early next week with warmer high temperatures for Labor Day through Wednesday as drying occurs. High temperatures for next Wednesday will be within a few degrees of average for the mountains and deserts and a few to around 5 degrees above average for the coast and valleys.

High temperatures for next Wednesday will range from around 80 near the coast to the 90s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts around 105. Low temperatures will be mostly in the mid 60s to lower 70s for the coast and valleys and in the mid 70s to mid 80s for the lower deserts.

AVIATION

040930Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 1,800-2,200ft MSL have increased in coverage over the southern San Diego coast and have moved into portions of the San Diego Valley. Low BKN clouds will continue to be intermittent and extremely patchy through 15- 16Z. Clouds clear after 16-17Z with VFR conditions through 03Z Saturday. Low clouds with similar bases will begin to move inland after 03Z Saturday with very patchy and intermittent coverage once again.

Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the period. Expect high clouds developing after 02Z Saturday, increasing towards the end of the period. Breezy westerly winds mainly through mountain passes and along desert slopes. Gusts 25-35 kts with pockets of moderate up/downdrafts over and in lee of ridges. Winds taper off slightly after 12Z but will pick up again after 20Z.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.

BEACHES

A large south swell from Hurricane Marie will move into the region Friday night and Saturday, peaking Sunday into Monday, before gradually diminishing Tuesday. This will result in elevated to high surf and strong rip and longshore currents at majority of beaches. Additionally, waves will occasionally run much farther up the beach than expected, especially during increasing and evening high tides.

For south and southwest-facing beaches, expecting high surf 6-10 feet. This includes Orange County and north San Diego County beaches. For west-facing beaches, expecting elevated surf 4-7 feet. This includes most of southern San Diego County beaches.

High surf combined with high astronomical tides 6 to about 6.5 feet will lead to tidal overflow and coastal flooding Saturday through Tuesday during evening high tides, especially for those south and southwest-facing beaches as well as low-lying, typically impacted areas.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.