textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Not as hot this weekend with breezy conditions across the mountains and deserts. Temperatures will hold near average for the first half of the week as a troughing pattern lingers with a deeper marine layer. High pressure moves in by Wednesday into the latter half of next week, bringing a warming trend.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Update: Clouds have lifted enough to completely fill into the Inland Empire at this hour, and therefore overcast skies are likely to remain in place through the early hours for a good portion of all of the inland areas. Expect clouds to begin to dissipate from east to west shortly after sunrise, although given the strength of the inversion, some areas may struggle to clear out completely through mid-morning. Some patchy fog will be possible within some of the higher inland valleys along the I-15 corridor.

Today through tomorrow night...

The latest GOES night fog reveals that the high clouds associated with a finger of the subtropical jet continues to exit the region, which is helping to allow for the marine layer to fill in west of the mountains for all locations under roughly 1500-2000 ft elevation within San Diego and Orange counties. Given low level flow, these clouds are struggling to making it into the IE, although lifting of the marine layer through the morning hours as 500 mb heights continue to fall may aid in these clouds filling into the IE.

As aforementioned, the major shortwave trough impacting the region will continue to propagate across the western states and into the Great Basin, which will allow for heights to fall and lifting of the marine layer slightly. Given how persistent onshore flow is, there will likely be a few locations along the coastal areas that will be socked in with overcast skies throughout the day. These clouds will break for much of the inland areas by later this morning. Winds across the higher terrain and through the gaps will increase again during this afternoon, but not be quite as strong as yesterday. There could still be the occasional gust over 50 mph within Gorgonio Pass. Temperatures will still be on the chilly side for today. Winds will decouple and weaken going into the later part of the evening, with low clouds continuing to fill in west of the mountains.

On Monday, temperatures will be slightly warmer than today as high pressure reestablishes itself. Winds during the afternoon will pick back up across the mountains and high deserts, with similar values as this afternoon as overall troughing remains in place. The marine layer will begin to lower by later in the evening tomorrow and fill back in.

Tuesday through Saturday...

High pressure is going to further set back in with the trough slowly transitioning eastward and out of the region, which will gradually be replaced by an expanding area of ridging over the e Pac waters, that will begin to edge its way closer to the region throughout the later half of the upcoming week. This will result in a warming trend, especially by Thursday into Friday. The marine layer will also continue to lower, with vis restrictions during the early morning hours becoming a lot more likely further west to the coastal areas. Ensembles depict that dry conditions will persist going into the following weekend as weak ridging remains locked in place as a deepening longwave trough advances southward across mid CONUS.

AVIATION

071000Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based 1900-2400 ft MSL have filled most of the coastal basin early this morning. VIS 0-5SM along mountain foothills. Scatter out inland to the coast 16-19z, though some areas along the coastline may not clear until the early afternoon. 20-30% chance for BKN cigs all day at KSAN. Low clouds move back inland starting 01-02z Mon with slightly lower bases. Similar inland extent Sunday night, though portions of the Inland Empire may remain FEW-SCT.

Mountains/Deserts...VFR with SCT clouds AOA 20000ft MSL through this morning. Elevated southwest-west winds return this afternoon and evening with gusts 20-35 knots along desert slopes and locally into deserts. Gusts may exceed 40 kts through the Banning Pass. MOD up/downdrafts and pockets of LLWS in lee (north and east) of mountains.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday night.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.