textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

High temperatures for today will remain as much as 5 to 10 degrees below average for the inland valleys thanks to the marine layer stretching well inland. A slight warming and drying trend into this weekend takes temperatures back to near normal for Saturday and Sunday as the marine layer becomes gradually shallower. After a briefly cooler day on Monday, another warming trend will begin next Tuesday with high temperatures returning above average by Wednesday.

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

Today through this weekend...

Current satellite and 500mb RAP analysis this afternoon reveals a potent upper low centered across northern California this afternoon. This feature is inducing low thickness and southwesterly flow aloft, which is fueling the below average temperatures seen the last few days. Highs this afternoon are running around 10 degrees below normal for the inland areas. A very deep marine layer has also resulted from the influence of the nearby upper low, which spread well through the coastal mountain slopes, with even isolated instances of drizzle along the coast this morning. As we progress into this weekend, this upper low will gradually kick east towards the northern Rockies, allowing a weak upper ridge to pass through. This will bring a subtle warming trend to the region, bringing temperatures back to near normal for Saturday/Sunday. This passing ridge will also serve to squish down the marine layer some, restricting cloud cover towards the coasts and western valleys.

Monday through midweek...

Following the subtle weekend warmup, another weak trough is set to swing through Monday/Tuesday. This will knock temperature back down a few degrees, back to cooler than seasonal norms, for Monday and Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, models begin to divergence in the resolution of the upper ridge across the south-central United States. Some ensemble clusters favor a stronger ridge that can push further west, with other clusters keeping the ridge weaker and further east. This is leading to a fairly large spread in temperatures come mid next week, thought the NBM mean is favoring a warming trend that brings temperatures around 5 degrees normal for Wednesday.

AVIATION

172330Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based around 2000-3000 feet MSL may return intermittently to KSAN, with lower confidence at KCRQ, 01- 04Z before becoming more consistent/widespread after 04Z. Low clouds are expected to spread north to KSNA through 08Z and into the entire coastal basin by 12Z Fri. Clouds will scatter 16-18Z Fri.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear and VFR conditions through Fri.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.