textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Weaker Santa Ana winds will continue across the mountains and foothills through Friday, while fair weather persists through the weekend for most areas. High pressure over the Pacific will move closer to the State by next week, leading to dry and warmer conditions across our region with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Variable high clouds this evening with no marine layer low clouds. Sfc pressure gradients are weaker but still offshore and the Santa Ana winds have weakened for most areas, although north to northeast winds gusting 25 to 45 mph have been reported this hour in and below the Cajon Pass.

From previous discussion... Weaker offshore flow will continue into Friday over the area, with similar weather to that of today. High temperatures will be in the 60s/70s for most areas, with 50s closer to Big Bear Lake, Mt. San Jacinto, and Mt. Laguna.

High pressure off the coast will continue to push south and east, expanding over Southern California by this weekend into next week. Heights start to rise by Sunday, initiating the start of a warming trend across the region. NBM shows highs well into the 70s for valleys west of the mountains into the lower deserts. The marine layer will remain shallow into early next week. Chance for fog near the coast is low, but not nonzero with low confidence by Sunday and Monday mornings.

Model agreement is high as we venture into the first half of next week, which shows the area of high pressure moving over our region. This will lead to weak offshore flow and warmer conditions. The strength of the offshore flow gradient and the strenght of the high will determine the specifics of the temperature forecast. NBM shows highs approaching 85 degrees in the western valleys by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, around 15 degrees above normal for the middle of December. Forecast confidence for this time period is moderate to high, with subtle changes expected for the exact highs expected. Confidence begins to lower on how long the area of high pressure stays over the area by the latter half of next week. Whatever the outcome, warm and dry weather will prevail for at least the next week.

AVIATION

050400Z....Generally clear skies through the period. Local northeast winds gusting 20-25 kts in mountain passes through this evening. 10- 20% chance patchy FG over nearshore waters and at the coastline after 03Z Sat.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected today through Tuesday.

BEACHES

Though surf diminishes today and Friday, very high tides will occur Friday morning, threatening coastal flooding, minor tidal overflow and beach erosion. Check the Coastal Hazard Message for details.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday morning for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.