textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Warmer this weekend with the potential for patchy dense fog near the coast tonight and again Sunday night. Much warmer next week with highs 10-15 degrees above normal and periods of weak to locally moderate Santa Ana winds, strongest on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Skies remain clear this morning with light winds across the region. Pressure gradients will be nearly neutral to the local deserts through Sunday morning, allowing for a weak sea breeze to develop this afternoon. With the return of this weak onshore flow and a forecasted weak coastal eddy tonight, we could see a development of dense fog over the coastal waters and locally into the coastal areas tonight into Sunday morning. Weak offshore flow kicks back in on Sunday morning, helping to clear out any fog. Patchy dense fog may briefly return again Sunday evening before slightly stronger offshore flow develops Sunday night. Aside from that, there will be gradual warming through the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure begins to build in from the west. High temperatures today will be around 3-7 degrees above normal, increasing to around 5-10 degrees above normal for Sunday.

Next week can be summed up with warm and dry. The upper high slowly shifts east through the week, directly overhead by Friday. At the surface, mostly weak Santa Ana winds will prevail, becoming locally moderate on Tuesday morning as surface gradients peak. With no upper level support, winds will remain confined to the usual passes, canyons, and coastal slopes and follow a diurnal pattern, strongest in the mornings and then weakening during the afternoon. On Tuesday morning, northeast to east gusts in the wind prone locations will generally peak around 30-45 mph. Monday and Wednesday through Friday will see peak gusts closer to 20-35 mph. Only minor daily fluctuations in temperatures is expected, with highs generally 10-15 degrees above normal each day Monday through Saturday. Dry air and weak winds overnight will allow for decent cooling, so HeatRisk remains low. For the valleys and deserts it will very much be a winter in the morning, summer (highs in the low 80s) for a few hours in the early afternoon, and fall in the evening sort of pattern.

The forecast becomes a little more uncertain towards next weekend with the upper high potentially beginning to weaken or break down, influencing how much cooling we'll see and whether or not onshore flow will return. Still no signs of precipitation around here until the second half of the month.

AVIATION

061000Z....Predominately clear skies and VFR conditions through the TAF period. Chances for some patchy fog for TAF sites along the immediate coast after 03Z Sunday. The San Diego County coast line will see chances around 10-20% through 12Z Sunday and Orange County will see slightly higher chances around 30-40% through 19Z. Confidence is not high enough in VIS restrictions below VFR to include fog in the TAFs at coastal sites at this time.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

BEACHES

High tides are around 6 to 7 ft this weekend. Otherwise, no beach hazards are expected through Thursday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.