textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Widespread light rain will continue this morning, becoming more scattered during the day before tapering off this afternoon and evening. Dry and warmer for the remainder of the week with highs near to a few degrees below normal each day.

..UPDATED AVIATION & AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS

As of 10 AM, the warm sector of the storm has pushed east and we are now advecting relatively colder air aloft. Looking at GFS 18z forecast soundings, there is some background instability only up to 700 mbs. The axis of the trough to the north is passing east of the coastal basin, making showers increasingly more isolated this afternoon through this evening throughout the coastal basin, with perhaps a few leftover showers in SD County tonight before completely drying out region-wide overnight into Monday. Given the relatively shallow instability profiles, any showers that do develop will be mainly light, with only a few brief showers of moderate intensity.

Monday will begin with cold morning temperatures, especially in the inland valleys (40s), high desert (mid/upper 30s) and mountain valleys (20s/30s). Otherwise, expect sunny skies across the region with light N/NE offshore flow over the mountains and deserts during the day, then increasing mid and high level clouds during the evening as another trough moves north of the region.

With the weak trough moving through Tuesday, some light rain or drizzle cannot be ruled out for coastal and inland SD County though the one model (ECMWF ENS) picking up on this possibility seems to be backing off.

As a result of this trough and another trough Thursday, high temperatures will remain rather steady Tue-Thu: mid- 70s across the coastal basin (including the IE), upper 60s in the high desert, 50s in the mountains and around 80F in the low deserts.

Friday through the weekend, an upper ridge builds over the Western US. While the intensity of the ridge over SoCal remains uncertain, the thermal trough likely sets up at the coast or a few miles inland, increasing high temperatures to the low to mid-80s in the coastal basin and lower deserts, while the mountains and high deserts remain cool.

AVIATION

011830...Multiple cloud layers 1500 to 10000 ft MSL this morning, expect frequent cat changes throughout the coastal basin, especially when -SHRA pass over a site. ISO -SHRA will linger through Sunday evening in San Diego County and in the mtns but taper off elsewhere after 22Z. As SHRA tapers off VFR conditions will become more widespread. Increased W winds around 20 kt near the coast and 40-50 kt on desert mountain slopes, locally into the deserts 20Z Sun-03Z Mon. Weak NE winds expected overnight into Mon AM.

MARINE

Westerly winds increase this afternoon and evening with widespread gusts 20-25 knots and rough, choppy seas through the outer coastal waters, and gusts just under 20 knots in the inner coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the outer coastal waters through 9PM today. Weaker winds expected Monday, followed by more elevated onshore winds Tuesday afternoon and evening, with gusts in the outer coastal waters potentially exceeding 20 knots.

BEACHES

Southwesterly swell (3 ft at 15 seconds from 200 degrees) will bring elevated surf through Monday, with breaking wave heights 3 to 6 feet. High tides near 6.5 ft today combined with elevated surf and westerly winds gusting 20-25 mph will result in tidal overflow during the 2 PM high tide. Winds will subside but surf will remain elevated into Monday. Those factors combined with a high tide near 6 ft will continue the potential for minor tidal overflow during the Monday afternoon high tide around 3:30 PM.

Tides are expected to increase for the end of the week, with tides reaching 7 ft as early as Friday. Tides will peak over the weekend into early next week around 7.5 ft.

Reminder, tides mentioned have been corrected to reflect the current trends in actual tide observations.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.