textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Lingering scattered showers will bring light rain to areas west of the mountains today, becoming more confined to San Diego County this evening. Weak offshore flow expected Saturday and Sunday. Dry and warmer for the weekend through Monday, then gradually cooler for the middle of next week with a chance of precipitation for late next week. Tides will increase over the weekend, remaining elevated through much of next week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Radar imagery at 12 PM was showing scattered showers moving from north to south mainly across coastal areas. Over the past 6 hours, places north of San Diego County have received mainly less than 0.05", with totals ranging from 0.05 to 0.30" in San Diego County. Additional showers will continue at times through the day, most likely in San Diego County, eventually tapering off overnight.

By tonight, models are showing a closed upper level low moving south and east towards the border of California and Arizona. This will turn the pressure gradient weakly offshore, increasing north to northeasterly winds in wind prone locations. Peak wind gusts will be in the 30 to 45 mph range, strongest on the foothills of the San Bernardino mountains and just below the Cajon Pass. Given the unsettled weather quickly turning to offshore flow, marine layer low clouds and fog will largely be absent from the coast into early next week.

High temperatures over the weekend will warm. Highs Saturday are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, with additional warming along the coast on Sunday and a few degrees of cooling or no change further inland. By Monday, high temperatures in coastal areas will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, with temperatures closer to average further inland. Cooler conditions expected for the middle to end of next week.

Global ensembles are indicating the potential for unsettled weather for the end of next week. There remains a lot of spread in solutions and uncertainty in the details. Rain chances are in the forecast as early as Friday. NBM chances for 0.01 inch or more of rainfall for the coast to the mountains increases from 10 to 20 percent for next Friday to 35 to 45 percent on Saturday the 31st to 40 to 50 percent on Sunday November 1st. In addition to precipitation, cooler, cloudier, and windier conditions may develop.

AVIATION

231800Z...SHRA coming to an end, with most locations VFR. VCSH may continue through the evening, especially for San Diego County. VIS 5- 6SM with any SHRA. Generally SCT-BKN 4000-6000ft MSL, clearing after 24/03z. Generally no widespread low clouds tonight or Saturday morning, with VFR prevailing. Weak northeasterly winds overnight for inland airports.

MARINE

Isolated northwest wind gusts will occasionally exceed 20 knots today in the outer waters. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.

BEACHES

Astronomical high tides will create significant coastal flooding starting Sunday. Tides will be anywhere from 1 to 1.7 feet above predictions. Morning high tides could reach near 7 feet Saturday morning and are likely to exceed 7.5 or 8 feet by Monday morning. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the entire Orange and San Diego coastline Sunday morning through Thursday morning.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.