textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Brief warming trend expected through Friday, with cooler conditions over the weekend, and potential for additional warming early next week. Night and morning low clouds and fog will be present each day through the forecast period along the coast and into portions of the valleys.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Visible satellite at 11 AM was showing low clouds clearing from the valleys to the coast. Low clouds may linger along the immediate coast into the late afternoon. The marine layer will gradually become shallower for Thursday and Friday, with overnight low clouds not reaching as far inland. Low clouds should clear most locations by late morning, with the coast having the highest potential for low clouds lingering into the afternoon. The marine layer will become deeper for Friday into the weekend as a broad trough of low pressure digs into the Pacific Northwest.

High temperatures will warm a few degrees each day through Friday, most noticeable to for the deserts. Highs in the deserts will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, with highs west of the mountains within 5 degrees of average. As the aforementioned low digs south, winds will increase over the mountains and deserts. Winds will peak in strength Saturday into Sunday with the trough passage. Additionally temperatures will fall a few degrees, becoming slightly below normal for most locations.

Temperatures are expected to warm for early to mid-next week. Most ensemble clusters indicate a ridge of high pressure in the vicinity of the US West Coast with variations in placement. A more easterly position (putting the ridge over California) would lead to a warmer solution with a more westerly position (keeping the ridge over the Eastern Pacific) would keep temperatures more moderate.

AVIATION

140400Z...Coast/Valleys...Clouds based 1500-2500 ft MSL are expected to develop through San Diego County from 05-09z, expanding northward into Orange County through 13z and slowly filling into the Inland Empire in patchy fashion. By 13z, 35% chance for cigs over KONT and 50% over KSBD. Patchy VIS reductions (HZ/BR) 3-5SM in the Inland Empire; 0-3SM along the foothills. Scatter out inland begins 15z. Full scatter out to coast by around 18z. Current guidance suggests clouds will develop again at the coast between 01-04z Fri with initially similar bases.

Mountains/Deserts...Westerly wind gusts 25-40 kt along desert slopes and into deserts this evening, weakening slightly Thursday morning, then re-strengthening after 21z Thu. Gusts locally to 50 kts through the Banning Pass. MOD up/downdrafts and local LLWS in lee of mountains.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday morning. Increasing winds and seas over the outer coastal waters could become hazardous for small craft Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.