textproduct: San Diego

SYNOPSIS

Weaker Santa Ana winds will continue across the mountains and foothills through Friday, while quiet weather persists through most areas through the weekend. High pressure over the Pacific will move closer to the State by next week, leading to a warm up across our region with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal with continued dry weather.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

A strong 594 mb high over the Pacific and a departing trough over the Southern Plains, have contributed to weak offshore flow across the region. Winds in the mountains and coastal facing foothills will continue to weaken throughout the day. Weaker offshore flow will remain by Friday over the area with similar weather to that of today with highs in the 60s/70s for most with 50s closer to Big Bear Lake, Mt. San Jacinto, and Mt. Laguna.

High pressure off the coast will continue to push south and east, expanding over Southern California by this weekend into next week. Heights start to rise by Sunday, initiating the start of a warming trend across the region. NBM shows highs well into the 70s for valleys west of the mountains into the lower deserts. The marine layer will remain shallow into early next week. Chance for fog near the coast is low, but not nonzero with low confidence by Sunday and Monday mornings.

Model agreement is high as we venture into the first half of next week, which shows the area of high pressure moving over our region. This will lead to weak offshore flow and warm temperatures. Depending on how strong our offshore flow gradient becomes and the strenght of the high will determine the specifics of the temperature forecast. NBM shows highs approaching 85 degrees in the western valleys by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, around 15 degrees above normal for the middle of December. Forecast confidence for this time period is moderate to high, with subtle changes expected for the exact highs expected. Confidence begins to lower on how long the area of high pressure stays over the area by the latter half of next week. Whatever the outcome, warm and dry weather will prevail for at least the next week.

AVIATION

042100Z....Mostly clear skies through the period. Local northeast winds gusting 20-25 kts in mountain passes and coastal foothills through this evening.

MARINE

No hazardous marine conditions are expected today through Tuesday.

BEACHES

Though surf diminishes today and Friday, very high tides will occur Friday morning, threatening coastal flooding, minor tidal overflow and beach erosion. Check the Coastal Hazard Message for details.

SKYWARN

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday morning for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.